Jesse puts this into perspective.
One of the lunch regulars, Dave the BondMan, notes for to our suprise that the Rate for a Credit Default Swap, the cost of insuring against default, on a 5 Year US Treasury Note is now a full 100 basis points.
The cost of credit default insurance is a real world, market assessment of the risk of default of the U.S. Govt, as opposed to the fantastical ratings issued by Moodys and S&P.
The Yield on a 5 Year T Bond is 1.92%.
It now costs more than one half of your return to guarantee a midrange US sovereign debt note.
Now if you take the next step, and view that return on a guaranteed US 5 Year Note as effectively .92%, you would have to believe that the rate of inflation will remain under one percent for the next five years in order for there to be any real return at all.
So are the bond vigilantes asleep or dead? If they ever return America's debt situation will rapidly get out of control.