The OECD has revised it's global economic outlook for the rest of this year.
The OECD forecasts economic growth across the Group of Seven countries to fall by 3.7% this year, a less brutal contraction than the 4.1% drop projected in June 2009. The latest GDP forecasts for this year provide slightly improved outlooks for Japan and the Euro area, an unchanged overall projection for the US but point to a gloomier situation in the UK.
Now note the OECD has the U.S. GDP growth projections unchanged at +1.6% for Q3 2009 and +2.4% for Q4, 2009. But what is interesting is Q3 is within the margin of error of 1.9% and Q4 projections are at the margin of error, 2.4%.
Even more interesting, looking at their graph, is they did not change the positive GDP projection for Q2 2009 of about 0.6% to the real negative, -1.0% percent it actually was.
They also were completely wrong on U.S. Q1 2009 projections, estimated to be -2.0% and in reality came in at -6.4%.
The OECD projects the U.S. total yearly GDP contraction for 2009 to be -.2.8%.
China, on the other hand, is estimated to have grown 14% GDP in Q2 2009.
The release has a lot of graphs on credit, trade balances, global industrial production and so on, all based on the statistics as reported.
It's pretty clear the cliff diving has stopped on a global scale and worth a look (in spite of how the OECD has a tendency to isolate China and India statistics!).