Retail Sales - June 2011

Retail Sales increased +0.1% for June 2011 and are up 8.1% from the same time last year. April retail sales percentage change was -0.1%, revised. Autos increased 0.7% in June and are up 9.3% from June 2010.



Retail sales are not adjusted for price increases. Gas dropped -1.3%, a welcome change, but is still up 23.6% from a year ago. Grocery retail sales increased 0.3% and are up 6.8% from June 2010. Nonstore retailers increased 0.3% but are up 12.3% from a year previous.

Retail trade is retail sales minus food and beverage services and it increased 0.2% in June. Nonstore retailers are things like online shopping, direct sales and from the yearly increase, 12.3%, shopping online has grown in 2011.

Electronics and appliances are down -0.2% for June, sporting goods are down -0.7%, furniture is down -0.8%.

While this appears to be a slight slow up, there is a reason advanced retail sales are often reported three month tallies. There is variation in the monthly reported figures. The three month tally, from April to June is up 7.7 % in comparison to the same period a year ago.

Retail sales correlates to personal consumption, which is about 70% of GDP growth. Yet GDP has inflation removed from it's numbers. This is why Wall Street jumps on these retail sales figures. Lord help them if America stops shoppin'.

The below graph is retail sales minus autos & parts, which increased 0.2% this month.



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sorry this is late

playing catch up. Basically this report implies for the last two months retail sales were flat, but this isn't adjusted for inflation, GDP is. Another indicator that Q2 GDP will be in the one's percentage area.


The fact that you write all of the really complex stuff at EP is no excuse to be late, now, is it;)

Excellent piece.