Harvard and former IMF economist Kenneth Rogoff Sees ‘Bunch of Sovereign Defaults’ :
Several countries are likely to default on their debt in coming years and investors will force the U.S. to pare spending, said Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University.
Following banking crises, “we usually see a bunch of sovereign defaults, say in a few years. I predict we will again,” Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at a forum in Tokyo today.
He said financial markets will eventually drive interest rates higher, and European countries such as Greece and Portugal will “have a lot of troubles.” Global scrutiny of sovereign debt has risen as nations including Greece reveal fiscal deficits that have swollen in the wake of the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression.
“It’s very, very hard to call the timing, but it will happen,” Rogoff, 56, said in the speech. “In rich countries - - Germany, the United States and maybe Japan -- we are going to see slow growth. They will tighten their belts when the problem hits with interest rates. They will deal with it.”
Concern about Greece’s ability to fund its debt have roiled financial markets since the government said it had a budget shortfall of 12.7 percent last year, the highest ratio in the 27-member European Union.
Rogoff said Japanese fiscal policy is “out of control.” Japan has the world’s largest public debt, with gross liabilities that are approaching twice the size of the economy.
Boy Japan is just getting the shits. So glad we followed their bank bail out model.
Naked Capitalism (h/t) has some commentary about Rogoff's prediction including some of the details on EU.
So we have multiple EU countries in trouble and a very obvious finger pointing to Japan.