First it was 2009, then 2011, now it's 2012. That's when Zillow is predicting the housing market will bottom.
We’ve revised our forecast for the total home value decline nationally in 2011 to 7-9 percent (previously 5-7 percent) and our forecast of the bottom from late 2011 to 2012 at the earliest. As always, our expectation post-bottom (where we define the bottom as the end of consistent monthly depreciation) is for a long period of below-normal real estate appreciation during which time we work out the remaining overhang of excess housing supply.Zillow's Q1 Housing report has more bad news. First, housing depreciated 3% in Q1 2011. In March 2011, foreclosure re-sales were 23.7% of all home sales. There are 2 million homes being foreclosed on and 1.5 million more in delinquency. The 3% Q1 decline in home values is as bad as 2008 and the cumulative drop in home values is now 29.5%.
Nearly three-quarters (74.5 percent) of homes in the United States lost value from Q1 2010 to Q1 2011. That’s up from Q4 2010, when 69.2 percent had lost value, but is down substantially from a peak of 85.5 percent in Q1 2009.37.7% of homes were sold at a loss in March 2011. Negative equity, or mortgages under water, was 28.4% for Q1 2011. This is what happens when one has a never ending jobs, income crisis. People cannot pay their mortgage, and the report notes the lack of good paying jobs is extending the housing market collapse. There is more, graphs, multimedia, on the Zillow website. One of the most frightening graph are foreclosures per month as percentage of all homes.
Bonddad the sophomoric blog
I see that this article was posted on 5/9 and I just got to it today 5/11. That makes it an especially interesting article for me because just today over at Bonddad, New Deal Democrat has one his usual sophomoric snotty articles in response to a housing article over at Daily Kos.
The housing market today is literally unprecedented in history and it’s subject to many interpretations. As anyone who has been following it low these many years knows and R. Oak points out above. But, the Bonddad blog seems to go out of its way to tell readers how much smarter they are than other bloggers and commentators. It seems to be an attention getting device. Now they have moved into Bran DeLong criticism.
That's why I appreciate EP. It's not shy about criticism; but it does so professionally and doesn't sound like a wise ass kid in junior high.
Honestly, we're just like you, working hard to figure it out, but by the numbers and the data.
I'll have to go see what this latest "green shoots" are.
Ok, on all things housing, residential real estate, I think Calculated Risk has consistently given the more accurate analysis and forecasts.
That said, the U.S. data, S&P Case-Shiller, most economists who track housing are all saying residential real estate went into a double dip.
Zillow's data matches other reports. So, ya know, I bet there are a good 1 million people in the United States who have economics course work, I don't know the size of the professional field, but I'll bet it hits around that number.
Calculated Risk has to be one of the most data driven blogs. I know because I too calculate out a few things from the data and am in contact with Bill, know he is cranking numbers from correct analysis, correct formulas.
In other words, if you have doubts, check Calculated Risk and in terms of the press who mostly get it right on economic reports, I'd have to say that's MarketWatch.
Sometimes the press gets it wrong, which is why I go through this data directly.
Now on that "stuff", I just read, I'm sorry but well, that's probably why we all part ways. People who think they see all, usually see nothing for they are blinded by the reflection of their own brilliance in the mirror.
i.e. someone isn't paying attention to the demand side of the equation, called per capita income, which Zillow, Case-Shiller, all, even Ben Bernanke, mention.
Is there anyone out there makong rational long term forecasts of the housing market? Six month forecasts are like trying to predict the outcome of the football game in the first quarter based upon a 3 and out ball possession performance.
Housing market bottom in 2012
I agree with this article but one thing I would add, depending on your location will depend
on when you might see signs of recovery. For instance, the Sacramento is very close to the bottom abd more than likely 2012 will be the last year of turmoil.
Thanks for comment on 2012 housing market
Thanks to 'Johnny Brooks' for comment, Housing market bottom in 2012, pulling my thoughts off the Euro stuff and back home to the question of the housing market in 2012! But, of course, the two -- Euro stuff and the USA housing market -- are not unrelated. See, my comment, QE3 in January? -- which I posted at Robert Oak's more recent blog, Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline -3.9% from a year ago for September 2011
'Johnny Brooks' posted at Robert Oak's blog from last may, Zillow Says Housing Market Won't Bottom Until 2012