personal income

July PCE up at a 36.6% Rate from 2nd quarter, suggesting a "V" shaped recovery

To estimate the impact of the change in PCE on the change in GDP, we have to compare July's real PCE to the real PCE of the 3 months of the second quarter. When we compare July's inflation adjusted PCE of 12,778.2 billion to the 2nd quarter’s real PCE of 11,819.6 billion, we find that July’s real PCE has grown at a 36.605% annual rate from the 2nd quarter. 

May PCE up 8.2%, but 2 Months PCE Still Subtracts 29.06 Percentage Points from 2nd Quarter GDP

The May report Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, and the PCE price index, which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.

November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP

The November report on Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis includes the month's data for our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 69% of the month's GDP, and with it the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, and which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.

May Personal Income up 0.4%, Spending up 0.1%; 2 Months PCE to Add 184 Basis Points to Q2 GDP

The May report on Personal Income and Outlays, released on Friday, gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 69% of GDP, and the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, and which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated. 

July PCE, Trade Deficit, Construction, and Factory Inventories Point to 3rd Qtr GDP Growth Over 3%

In addition to the Employment Situation Summary for August from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, last week also saw the release of four July reports that give us the lion's share of that month's contribution to 3rd quarter GDP, and in some cases suggest revisions to 2nd quarter GDP.  This post reviews those four reports, with an eye to assessing their impact on GDP growth.

Consumer Spending Outpaces Income Growth Again

The June personal income and outlays report shows a 0.4% increase in consumer spending.  When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 0.3%.  Personal income increased 0.2% while real disposable income increased 0.1% for the month.  This is decent growth in PCE.  From a year ago, real consumer spending has increased 2.8% while real disposable income has increased 2.2%.

April and May PCE To Add 2.66 Percentage Points to Q2 GDP Growth

The May report Personal Income and Outlays from the BEA gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 2/3rds of GDP, and the PCE price index, which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.

The Impact of April’s Income and Outlays, Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, and Factory Inventories on GDP

With the first Friday of the month, the Employment Situation Summary for May from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was obviously the most widely watched release of last week.  But the week also saw the release of four reports for April that give us the lion's share of that month's contribution to 2nd quarter GDP, and in some cases suggest revisions to 1st quarter GDP.

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