Indiana Primary: Senate Incumbents Crushed By Trump-Backed Challengers

First rule of politics:  Never ignore the will of your base.  Second rule of politics:  Never make your party and your supporters weaker, or the opposing party stronger. 

In December 2025, 21 Republican Indiana state senators joined forces with 10 Democrats to vote against a Trump-supported bill to redraw the state's congressional map as more favorable to conservatives in the midst of a redistricting battle that could decide the outcome of the 2026 mid-terms.  The decision was viewed by many conservative voters in the state as contrary to the will of the MAGA base and a move that could lead to greater disaster for the country. 

The national agenda to undo the unprecedented damage done by the Biden Administration is already facing significant interference from every angle by Democrats and activist judges.  Conservatives fear it would be further derailed if Democrats take control of the House or the Senate (or both) two years into Trump's last term.  The last thing the nation needs is Republicans with suicidal empathy coming out of the woodwork to add to the chaos.

Given the Republican Party's incessant propensity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the Indiana GOP/Democrat alliance was predictable but still troubling.  Crossing the aisle these days means siding with the same people who tried to enforce permanent pandemic lockdowns, mass-jailed J6 protesters, initiated open borders, spread transgender propaganda in public schools, etc. 

The era of bipartisanship is dead.

Critics might argue that defiance of Trump is not, in itself, a betrayal of the party as long as it's in the service of greater conservative principles (the idea of "fair maps" being one of those principles).  However, in the end, the voters still decide who best represents conservative ideals.   

A recent decision by the Supreme Court to restrict race-based gerrymandering by Democrats has opened the door to redistricting in a number of red states (similar to redistricting efforts by Democrats in states like Virginia).  The shift brought even more negative scrutiny on Republican incumbents in Indiana, adding to their inevitable and embarrassing defeat this week in the State Senate primaries. 

Republican State Senator Travis Holdman — who lost by over 20 points — isn’t taking it very well.

“Revenge & retribution is not a Christian value.”

All you had to do was listen to your constituents. pic.twitter.com/CW41WrS7Fo

— ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) May 6, 2026

Trump responded to what he referred to as a "RINO" betrayal by endorsing primary challengers, taking on seven of the incumbents running for re-election. His allies (including groups like Turning Point USA) focused considerable funding into these otherwise low-profile races.  Trump accused incumbents of potentially costing Republicans two extra House seats in the Mid-Terms and warned:

"Anybody that votes against Redistricting, and the success of the Republican Party in D.C., will be, I am sure, met with a MAGA Primary in the Spring..."

Trump was not wrong.  Of the seven incumbents on Trump's hit list, five were overwhelmingly defeated in the primaries (some of them had been in office for decades).  The sixth, Sen. Spencer Deery, is hanging by a thread with 3 vote lead after 95% of the vote was counted.  Trump challenger Paula Copenhaver says she expects to win with provisional votes left to be tallied.  If Copenhaver prevails, Trump will have swept away a significant number of anti-MAGA state senators. 

In the lead-up to the race, rumors spread by anti-Trump influencers swirled on social media claimed that MAGA as "all but dead".  They asserted that the voters were "jumping ship" en masse.  Obviously this is not the case.  The Indiana primary results have set the tone going into the Midterms and any notion of an internal conservative revolt has been quashed.  

A new attempt at redistricting in Indiana will not take place until 2027, but is is likely that Trump thought it more important to send a message.  And, it is true that for many years certain segments of the Republican Party have consistently aided the Democrats even though they rarely if ever offer such fair play in return.  Some call it political diplomacy, others call it deliberate subversion. 

In any case, Trump just made it clear that it will no longer be tolerated.       

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 17:20

Will AI Make Us Wonderfully Prosperous?

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

“Any given government program will become the opposite of its name,” Elon Musk said recently.

The rule seems correct.

Think of the Affordable Care Act, the Inflation Control Act, the CARES Act, the War on Poverty, and countless others. They all resulted in the very inverse of how they are named.

That’s some wisdom right there.

Musk holds many libertarian views along these lines and has been a vocal champion of capitalism as an economic system. He famously set out to lead a team to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget. It did not work but not for want of trying.

However, Musk is not always consistent. And he is not always correct.

He also recently wrote the following: “Universal HIGH INCOME via checks issued by the Federal government is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI. AI/robotics will produce goods & services far in excess of the increase in the money supply, so there will not be inflation.”

Let’s consider these assertions from the inside out.

Musk claims that AI is going to produce vast goods and services such that it will generate 4, 5, and 6 percent growth. Indeed, if economic growth is going to outpace money supply growth, even in normal times, it will need to be above 6 percent at least. That’s just based on average rates of money growth over the decade. If we want healthy growth beyond that, we’ll need output growth on the level of 9 and 10 percent.

The United States has not experienced growth like that since the 1880s. Data gathering was not quite sophisticated in those days—national income accounting had not yet been invented—so we cannot say for sure. This is just an estimate.

Perhaps it is not far off, however.

We had a bout of explosive innovation: commercialized steel, internal combustion, electric lighting, telegraph and photography, and much more.

That kind of innovation did indeed generate economic growth. The world had never seen anything like it.

Elon is implicitly assuming that artificial intelligence will be the same, a driver of a massive increase in prosperity. There is reason for doubt. We heard the same thing about the digital age. In fact, I was certain back in the late 1990s that the Internet would yield huge increases in productivity that would lead to growth on the scale of the Gilded Age.

That did not happen. We saw the opposite. We’ve been through 30 years of frustratingly slow economic growth. The fruits of the digital revolution were squandered with growing amounts of government debt, regulation, burdensome business mandates, and a litigation explosion. That combination created an enormous drag on what should have been glorious growth.

Recall that in the 1880s, we had no federal regulatory agencies at all. We did not have a welfare state or income tax. The dollar was secured and sound with a gold standard. We had no inflation at all; in fact, the dollar grew in value year by year, something that has not happened once since World War II.

For technological innovation to create explosive economic growth, you need that special ingredient called economic freedom. We are nowhere near as free in economics today as we were then.

Given this history, I’m extremely doubtful of the predictions that AI will give birth to wonderful economic growth anywhere near 9 and 10 percent. I would be very surprised. Indeed, mankind has proven its remarkable capacity for squandering wonderful opportunities to make the world a better place.

AI is impressive but with all new technologies, the hype always exceeds the reality. Remember it was only 10 years ago that everything and anything would “get on the blockchain” and magically become wonderful. Business consultants made bank duping naive corporate managers with this prattle. At some point, it became obvious that the blockchain is useful for specific tasks while the old tech would be fine for most everything else.

I see the frenzy over AI very similarly. Nor do I believe that the home robot has much of a future in our domestic lives.

Factories and shipping, sure, but helping around the house as in the Jetsons? Doubtful.

There is another odd feature to Elon’s argument. He says that all this wonderful but unproven economic growth will be accompanied by widespread unemployment as robots replace humans. This is odd. We’ll never live in a world where there is no work to be done. There is always work to be done at some price. So long as labor markets are free, there will be jobs.

One might suppose, too, that with 10 percent economic growth, there would be more than enough prosperity flowing to hire people for every manner of work. It’s not as if human beings will become useless. AI is great at routine tasks but terrible at judgment and creativity. There will be more, not less, of a market for those skills in an AI/robot world.

Therefore, there is no reason to suppose that the AI revolution will create mass unemployment over the long term. It’s reasonable to expect disruption and dislocation out of many professions. But if the labor markets are free to adapt, the old jobs will be replaced by new jobs.

In the 20th century, we’ve developed an obsession with unemployment, particularly since the Great Depression. The entire reason for this problem traces to controls on the labor market, privileges flowing to unions, restrictions on wage levels, and attempts to keep the market from adapting. High unemployment is a sure sign that the labor market is not free.

In a genuine free market, there would be no unemployment at all simply because it’s the nature of the world always to call forth human labor for some purpose and at some price.

Musk proposes that the U.S. government offer huge benefits in the form of income support for the unemployed. There are now 170 million people in the labor force. If 20 million of them are displaced by AI/robotics and each person is given $100,000 a year, that’s an astronomical expenditure of $2 trillion a year—exactly the amount that Musk sought to cut from the federal budget.

To match that figure with a money supply increase would mean nearly a 9 percent increase in M2 each year, which would certainly be hugely inflationary, all else equal. To stop that inflation, economic growth would have to be 10 percent and higher, which is highly unlikely. As a result, such expenditure would certainly mean a dramatic degradation in the purchasing power of the dollar.

No inflation, promises Musk, but he is likely wrong and the rest of society and the world would be stuck with the results.

Putting all these workers on permanent welfare would stop labor markets from adjusting to reflect new technologies. Why would anyone take a job if he can sign up for a basic income from the taxpayers? Such a proposal is completely contrary to any conception of a free market.

There is another feature here. Putting millions or tens of millions on permanent income support would drain creativity, energy, and productivity from the markets. It would be the greatest subsidy that sloths ever enjoyed. This would be a disaster for the human spirit.

We saw how universal income worked in the COVID years with stimulus payments.

It led to fraud, demoralization, and inflation. Making such a policy permanent would do the same and worse.

Remember the first Musk principle: “Any given government program will become the opposite of its name.”

What this points to is the general tendency to oversell and mask especially in government. It’s the same for universal basic income. It would not and could not be universal and it will degrade the lives of everyone it touches.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 17:00

Iran Oil Official In Surprise Admission: 'Fate Of Our Refineries Now At Risk' As US Blockade Begins To Bite Summary

• Iran oil sector official admits "serious threat" - telling NYT: "export of our oil and energy and the fate of our refineries is now at risk."

• US Navy jet fires on Iran-flagged tanker trying to reach Iranian waters & port.

• Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war, as Trump post appears to offer olive branch. Other reports say just hammering out at 'framework' for 'monthlong' talks.

• White House says it expects a response to the latest offer within 48 hours.

• Iran's initial response via media & national security spox: US demands are unrealistic & do not reflect reality, & Axios report based on too much 'speculation'.

• A key caveat of the US offered deal is that Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment, & Washington wants a 20-year ban on this; Iran & China FMs coordinate messaging in Beijing, denying Iran's intent to build nuclear bomb.

//--> //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 44% · No 56%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Surprisingly Frank Admission Out of Iran's Oil Sector

An Iranian energy official just conceded something in a surprise admission that the US naval blockade has begun to bite the Islamic Republic's oil industry. According to new reporting in the NY Times:

The blockade has halted Iran’s oil exports, choking off crucial revenues, and the country risks running out of places to store its oil. It is also affecting the import of other goods, forcing Iran to seek alternative routes through neighboring countries and its smaller ports on the Caspian Sea. And the economic pain inside Iran, already dire before the war, is becoming much worse.

“The sea blockade is a much more serious threat than even war, and the current stalemate must be broken because the export of our oil and energy and the fate of our refineries is now at risk,” said Hamid Hosseini, an expert on Iran’s oil sector who serves on the energy committee of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, in an interview from Tehran.

This as Kpler has stated based on its data that since the US blockade took effect on April 13, no Iranian oil-laden tankers have been able to exit the strait. 

"The bottom line is that Iran could run out of storage space in about 25 to 30 days if the blockade is not lifted, according to Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler’s head of oil analysis," continues the Wednesday report. "Other experts have given different estimates ranging from a few weeks to a month or more." Last month we offered the following, saying a likely 15 days - probably followed with a few weeks left on the clock before the Iranians run out of storage space...

Tehran Timeline: Iran Has 15 Days Until Its Oil Industry Begins Full Shut-Ins https://t.co/21WPtRfINW

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 22, 2026

As for the current Trump blockade strategy, another analyst told the Times, "The blockade really is about putting a financial deadline on the Islamic Republic’s head."

US Jet Fires On Iranian Tanker Trying To Pass

So much for that ceasefire and alleged 'pause' in US naval blockade actions, as things just took another escalatory turn. In this case, a rare live fire incident unfolded Wednesday in Gulf waters as a US jet launched from the Lincoln carrier fired on and possibly disabled an Iranian-flagged tanker, per the officials US Central Command statement:

U.S. forces operating in the Gulf of Oman enforced blockade measures by disabling an Iranian-flagged unladen oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port at 9 a.m. ET, May 6.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces observed M/T Hasna as it transited international waters enroute to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. American forces issued multiple warnings and informed the Iranian-flagged vessel it was in violation of the U.S. blockade.

After Hasna’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings, U.S. forces disabled the tanker’s rudder by firing several rounds from the 20mm cannon gun of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72). Hasna is no longer transiting to Iran.

The Pentagon/CENTCOM statement then emphasized, "The U.S. blockade against ships attempting to enter or depart Iranian ports remains in full effect. CENTCOM forces continue to act deliberately and professionally to ensure compliance." Tehran's response to this will be interesting, and follows prior alleged attacks this week on the UAE.

Illustrative: F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornet fighter jets, via US Navy 'Framework' Being Hammered Out for 'Monthlong Period of Talks'

Iran's Foreign Ministry has said that Iran's response to the United States has not yet been presented to mediator Pakistan, as the WSJ reports that the US and Iranian sides are currently trying to hammer out a one-page memorandum of understanding which features 14-points. This would "lay out a framework" - the report says, for a "monthlong period of talks to end the war."

Given that agreement cannot even be found on the 'framework' for future talks, it seems the process is not very advanced at all - but is perhaps still back at square one, with headlines in the US way out front, and likely overly optimistic. 

CNN citing the White House: "The White House received positive feedback from Pakistani mediators on Tuesday that the Iranians were progressing toward a compromise." And more from WSJ:

Iran’s mission to the UN said that "the only viable solution in the Strait of Hormuz is clear: a permanent end to the war, the lifting of the maritime blockade, and the restoration of normal passage."

Key Timing of Wang-Araghchi Meeting in Beijing

During Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi's visit to Beijing on Wednesday, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi pushed for the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to the fighting. Araghchi echoed the urgency, saying, "Currently, it is possible to resolve the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible." Wang called for a "comprehensive ceasefire" and stressed that “the international community shares a common concern for restoring normal and safe passage through the Strait," urging swift action.

The coordinated messaging reflects shared economic and strategic interests, especially as US naval actions have disrupted Iranian oil flows to China. Wang also signaled support for Tehran’s position, stating China "appreciates Iran’s pledge to not develop nuclear weapons," while Iran continues to insist its nuclear program is peaceful and maintains its right to uranium enrichment as a matter of sovereignty.

Wang reinforced Beijing’s stance by warning that "a comprehensive ceasefire brooks no delay" and that negotiations must continue, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to pressure Iran to ease its blockade of the strait.

Alarmed Reaction from Israel

An Israeli official cited in Times of Israel said Israel did not know that President Trump was close to a deal with Iran to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as global headlines pointed to progress. The official said Israel had been preparing for escalation, reflecting recent reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government was waiting for US approval to resume its aerial campaign following 38 days of strikes under Operation Epic Fury.

US messaging has shifted rapidly. with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday having announced the end of Operation Epic Fury and a pivot to Project Freedom focused on reopening Hormuz, while Trump later declared a pause to allow negotiations. The mixed signals from Washington created confusion as diplomacy and military positioning unfolded simultaneously.

Both Iran and Israel signaled readiness to escalate despite the diplomatic push. Iran warned its "finger is on the trigger," while Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said forces have multiple targets prepared inside Iran and remain on high alert. He emphasized ongoing coordination with US forces and readiness to resume a broad campaign if fighting restarts.

More Official Iran Denials: Too Much 'Speculation'

The latest response out of Tehran via Tasnim: "Despite claims by US media that Iran and the US are close to a final one-page agreement to end the war, Iran has not yet given an official response to the Americans' final text, which contains some unacceptable clauses."

And separately Iran's ISNA calls parts of the Axios report "speculation" - also reiterating the country has rejected some recent US proposals, as they are "unrealistic". However, an Iranian spokesperson has said that Iran is indeed "reviewing the US proposal to end the war."

Trump Admits: 'Too Soon'

And now a bit of rapid narrative reversal, coming from President Trump himself, after once again a likely premature early morning Axios report with overly optimistic language. Trump's fresh words are via the NY Post:

President Donald Trump said it’s "too soon" to plan peace talks with Iran despite reports of a near deal, downplaying prospects of imminent negotiations in Pakistan. He warned that if Iran accepts terms, hostilities could end and the Strait of Hormuz reopen—but failure to agree would trigger intensified military action.

Indeed the Iranian reaction issued via media reports also suggests this is the case, that all the talk of an agreement being close is premature, and there remains immense hurdles and a long way to go. Axios' Barak Ravid still insists that "the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began."

Initial Word From Tehran: Doesn't Reflect Reality

Iranian initial reaction through its media: "What US media outlets are publishing about the details of the negotiations does not reflect the reality of what is happening, according to AI Araby citing Iranian Sources."

"Progress has been made in talks with Washington through Pakistan, but it has not yet reached a level that would lead to an agreement," the statement says. The Iranians are also clearly sticking by their approach which says the nuclear issue is a non-starter and that talks must focus on opening Hormuz and finding a final end to the conflict. "The negotiations are focused on ending the war, not the nuclear issue," the statement in Al Araby continues.

And then the final criticism of Washington's approach: "The negotiations are still facing the intransigent American approach and excessive demands." And further, this: 

Ebrahim Rezaei dismissed U.S. demands as unrealistic, saying Washington won’t gain through conflict what it failed to secure in talks. He added Iran is ready to act and warned of a severe, regret-inducing response to any provocation.

Here is the full statement from the Iranian Spokesperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission (via machine translation):

Trump Issues Carrot & Stick

The below is a fresh Trump Truth Social Post on Wednesday morning, warning the Iranians that the Hormuz Strait must be "open to all". However, the president continues, if Tehran doesn't agree then "the bombing starts" and it will be at a "much higher level and intensity than it was before". 

All of this has followed an awkward 24 hours of drastically different signals coming from various top officials of the US administration.

Marco Rubio says the goal of the war in Iran is now to restore it "back to the way it was" before Trump started the war in Iran pic.twitter.com/G1E9qyxMc4

— Headquarters (@HQNewsNow) May 5, 2026

WH Expects Iranian Response In Next 48 Hours

Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war. This is based on a 14-point, one-page memorandum that creates a 30-day negotiating window for a broader nuclear and Strait of Hormuz deal and follows President Trump's announcement last night of "great progress" and a "complete and final" deal nearing. 

"The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.

Nothing has been agreed yet, but sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began," Axios wrote in the report.

Here are the key points:

• Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment. The duration is still under negotiation, with the U.S. pushing for 20 years, Iran offering five, and sources suggesting 12 to 15 years may be the likely spot.

• Iran would also pledge not to seek nuclear weapons, accept enhanced inspections, potentially halt underground nuclear facility operations, and possibly remove highly enriched uranium from the country.

• The U.S. would gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.

• Shipping restrictions through the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during the 30-day talks. If negotiations fail, U.S. forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.

Axios said talks are being led by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with top Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.

News of this sparked risk on in U.S. equity index futures, WTI fell to the $95-a-barrel handle, and U.S. Treasury yields dipped.

Market Response:

S&P500 Futs

Brent Futs

WTI Futs

UST10Y

BTC/USD

developing...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 16:45

JPM Tried $1 Million Payoff To Bury Banker's Sexual Assault Claims Before Daily Mail Bombshell

Views on JPMorgan banker Lorna Hajdini's Bloomberg profile surged on Wednesday afternoon.

Why?

The Wall Street Journal has released a new report stating that JPMorgan reportedly offered former investment banker Chirayu Rana $1 million to settle his sexual assault, harassment, and racial discrimination claims against Hajdini before he filed the lawsuit.

Rana's lawsuit was refiled on Monday after being withdrawn for a week. The lawsuit went viral after a Daily Mail report, which was later followed by a New York Post article citing sources who said the bank "found no evidence of wrongdoing" and Hajdini's lawyer, who rejected the claims in the suit.

"The original lawsuit was not withdrawn," said David Kramer, Rana's lawyer. "After filing, the court clerk informed us that the suit required review and sign-off from the judge before being formally filed under a pseudonym. Upon signature by the judge yesterday, the suit was formally filed under a pseudonym."

Rana alleges that Hajdini sexually assaulted him and that co-workers subjected him to racial harassment related to his Nepalese background.

JPM's settlement offer was reportedly intended to avoid litigation and reputational damage. JPM maintains that the claims are baseless.

The report stated that Rana's lawyers did not accept the $1 million offer and later countered JPM with a proposed settlement of $11.75 million.

Rana joined JPM's leveraged finance team in May 2024, filed an internal HR complaint in May 2025, was placed on paid leave, and later left the bank. He then joined private equity firm Bregal Sagemount in October 2025 but was reportedly let go last month.

"If you don't f— me soon, I'm going to ruin you… Never forget, I f—ing own you," Hajdini allegedly said, as detailed in the suit. "If you don't f— my brains out tonight, I'm going to sabotage your promotion."

The lawsuit continued, "She then told Plaintiff to suck her toes, repeating that she would facilitate his promotion and bonus."

Latest on Polymarket:

//--> //--> Chirayu Rana sued?
Yes 80% · No 21%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

 

//--> //--> Chirayu Rana sued?
Yes 80% · No 21%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

 

//--> //--> Chirayu Rana sued?
Yes 80% · No 21%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Hajdini's lawyers continue to reject Rana's claims: "She never dated this individual, never had a sexual or romantic encounter with him of any kind, and never gave him any drugs. She maintains that his false claims are entirely fabricated and tarnishing her reputation."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 16:40

DC Police Officials Disciplined Over Allegations Of Manipulating Crime Data

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

Multiple high-ranking officials in the Washington, DC Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) are facing termination in connection with allegations about how they handled and possibly manipulated crime statistics in the district.

Breitbart reports that three MPD officials told The Washington Post that “multiple high-ranking” officials—all captains or above, all in leadership—were given “papers saying the department intends to fire them.”

According to a DC Police Union press release, the anticipated terminations are directly related to an investigation into allegations that the officials engaged in direct manipulation of crime data to minimize the level of crime in DC.

The union, which represents 3,000 MPD officers, welcomed the decision to terminate the officials, saying, “These actions, tied directly to the department’s completed Internal Affairs investigation into the deliberate manipulation of crime data, mark a long-overdue step toward justice and the restoration of integrity with MPD.”

The Washington Post reports, “The District has reported a decline in overall crime in recent years after a historic spike in 2023. But some in D.C. police circles have long complained that certain managers routinely reduced the severity of crime classifications to make their police districts appear safer or avoid criticism from top department brass.”

In some districts, armed home invasions were written down as “trespassing” instead, dropping a vioIent felony to a low-level misdemeanor, in order to manipulate the crime stats.

The 13 individuals who were served termination papers have not been fired yet as they are entitled to due process under the department’s general orders.

Interim MPD Chief Jeffrey Carroll said, “The administrative process must be allowed to take its course, and that process is outlined in our MPD general orders.”

Carroll added, “Let me be clear, we have made meaningful progress over the last three years in reducing crime. Homicides, shootings and carjackings have fallen steadily since 2023.”

NBC 4 reports that three of the high-level officials worked very closely with former Chief Pamela Smith, including her second-in-command and at least one assistant chief who oversaw patrol in half of DC.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 16:20

Inside The Moscow Meeting That Laid Bare Iran's Weak Hand

Authored by Simon Watkins via oilprice.com,

• The Moscow meeting reinforced a long-standing imbalance, with Iran seeking deeper support while Russia offered only vague diplomatic backing.
• The 20-year Iran–Russia deal structurally favors Moscow, especially in energy and trade terms, leaving Tehran with limited economic and strategic upside.
• Russia’s growing military and economic strain reduces its ability to support Iran, exposing the fragility of the partnership.

Iran has a long history of being screwed over by Russia, and last week’s meeting in Moscow between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the U.S.–Israel–Iran war suggests nothing in that dynamic is about to change, according to extremely well-placed sources on both sides who spoke exclusively to OilPrice.com over the weekend. On the one hand, Tehran’s perennially baseless optimism that “this time will be different” was on full display in Araghchi’s excited praise for the marvels of the two countries’ so called ‘strategic relationship’. On the other hand, Moscow responded with all the warmth of an international telephone operator: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that Russia stands ready to offer “goodwill or mediation services”, with no indication of any upgrade to the relationship service package. It fits so neatly into the familiar pattern of this abusive relationship that one wonders whether social services should be called. Or perhaps Moscow’s disinterest is merely an act — a way of masking the deep and broad assistance from Tehran that it so clearly craves?

The theoretical basis of this relationship is the 20-year comprehensive cooperation deal between Iran and Russia -- formally titled The Treaty on the Basis of Mutual Relations and Principles of Cooperation between Iran and Russia -- approved by Iran’s late Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, on 18 January 2024, as I exclusively reported in OilPrice.com at the time. It replaced the 10-year deal signed in March 2001 (extended twice by five years) and was expanded in duration, scope and scale, particularly in the defence and energy sectors. In several respects, the new deal complemented key elements of the all-encompassing Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement, first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article and analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The similarities were deliberate, designed to make the division of the key strategic assets most coveted by Moscow and Beijing easier to manage in practice. Related: China Orders Refiners to Ignore U.S. Sanctions on Key Iranian Oil Buyers

As with much of Russia’s foreign policy dealings, the devil was in the details. As a sign of how things would pan out for Tehran in the rest of the document, Russia stood to benefit at Iran’s expense in the key energy sector to begin with. The deal gave Russia the first right of extraction in the Iranian section of the Caspian Sea, including the potentially huge Chalous field. This came on top of Russia’s startlingly brazen theft in 2019 of at least US$3.2 trillion in revenues from Iran through the lost value of energy products across their shared Caspian assets going forward. The same right of first extraction for Russia was also applied in the new 20-year deal to several of Iran’s major oil and gas fields in the Khorramshahr and nearby Ilam provinces that border Iraq, which China had not already prioritised for its own needs. Several of these sites had the broader financial and geopolitical benefits attached to their being shared fields with Iraq. This status allowed the effective free movement of Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil, and extended Tehran’s influence over Baghdad through its political, economic, and military proxies. By extension, it did the same for Moscow and Beijing, which used this as a springboard to further project their influence across the Iran-dominated Shia Crescent of Power.

This powerbase in Iran and Iraq had also been central to Russia’s longstanding plan to build a ‘land bridge’ to the Mediterranean Sea coast of another of its key global assets at the time -- Syria. This would enable Moscow to exponentially increase weapons delivery into southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights area of Syria to be used in attacks on Israel. The core aim of this policy was to provoke a conflict in the Middle East that would draw in the U.S. and its allies into an unwinnable war, and was seen as a natural extension of the Israel-Hamas War that had begun after the terrorist organisation’s murderous spree across Israel on 7 October 2023. Given its centrality to Moscow’s plans, then, Iran was at that point still confident that the Kremlin would meet its other promises in the 20-year deal, despite the shenanigans surrounding the energy side of the treaty as it related to the Caspian’s oil and gas riches. “Iran had long been asking  Russia for the means to defend itself better against any attacks, especially those that might come from Israel or the U.S. -- in particular for the S-400 missile defence system and Sukhoi Su-34 and 35 fighter jets,” a very senior source working closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com. “But these requests have continually been subject to further conditionality by Russia, such as upgrading key airports and seaports that Moscow sees as especially useful for dual-use by its air force and navy, and which are also close to major oil and gas facilities.

The terms of the individual defence and energy deals were also made increasingly onerous for Iran by Russia as preconditions for the final delivery of Iran’s requests. According to this source -- and confirmed to OilPrice.com at the time by a very senior source working closely with the Russian government -- the price of all items traded between Russia and Iran, including military and energy hardware, had been formalised in the 20-year deal on terms that were not in Iran’s favour. For Iranian goods exported to Russia, Tehran would receive the cost of production plus 8 per cent. However, these export sales to Russia would not be transferred to Iran, but rather would be held as credit in the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). Moreover, Iran would receive a huge markdown on US dollar/Rouble or Euro/Rouble exchange rates used to calculate its credits in the CBR. Conversely, for Russian goods exported to Iran, Moscow would receive the payment in advance of delivery and at an exchange rate that benefited Russia. Moreover, the base price before any exchange rate calculations would be set at the highest price that Russia has received in the previous 180 days for whichever product it was selling to Iran. Moscow ensured itself the highest possible price by selling the relevant product to Belarus at a very large premium shortly beforehand, so establishing the required pricing benchmark. Payments for goods and services falling outside the direct finance route between the central banks of the two countries would be handled through interbank transfers between Iranian and Russian banks. Transactions involving renminbi would also be routed through China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, Beijing’s alternative to the globally-dominant Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications system.

The additional problem for Iran now is that Russia is increasingly unable to provide even this limited assistance to it as its own troubles mount. Although U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on Russia’s ’10-Day Special Military Operation’ -- at the time of writing, in its 1,530th day -- has broadly favoured Putin and his ability to keep funding the conflict, things have turned very recently. The removal of pro-Putin Hungarian President Viktor Orbán in last month’s general election removed the obstacle that blocked €90 billion in European Union (E.U.) aid to Ukraine, with more to come as and when needed. This comes at a time when, according to military sources, Russia is only able to replace 70 per cent of the soldiers it is losing on the battlefield -- an unsustainable loss, which brings with it the deeply politically unsettling prospect of having to widen conscription out to the big cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. Moreover, Ukraine is now relentlessly hitting key oil and gas infrastructure targets deep in Russia, reducing its ability to monetise these exports to fund its Ukraine campaign. Crude oil export data suggested the rise in prices, plus the easing of U.S. sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, boosted Russian revenues to 2.3 times their December-February levels in the third week of the Iran war. But by the fourth week, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy-producing infrastructure reduced Russia's earnings by US$1 billion, eradicating around two-thirds of the previous week’s gains. And destroying Russia’s energy infrastructure using Ukraine-manufactured long-range drones -- without any U.S. assistance and using E.U. funding -- is now a priority target.

As it stands, Iran has once again bet on a partner that takes far more than it ever gives. And as Russia’s own position deteriorates, even the illusion of reciprocity is evaporating. Tehran may soon discover that Moscow’s promises were always worth less than the paper they were written on. With Russia now struggling to sustain its own war effort, the chances of it honouring its commitments to Iran are shrinking by the day. And when the Kremlin finally admits it has nothing left to offer, Tehran will be left with no air defences, no aircraft, no navy, and no leverage — only the bill for a partnership that never paid out.

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 15:40

World Starts To "Build" Around Hormuz; Japan Buying UAE Oil Bypassing Strait As ADNOC To Spend $55 Billion On Pipelines

Long after the Iran war is just a bookmark in the history books, one distinct consequence will persist: much of the world, at least the part that does not fall under the Chinese sphere of influence, will do everything it can to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and failing that, have a Plan B. Just like when the Biden admin weaponized the US Dollar in 2022 by booting Russia from SWIFT after the Ukraine war, and in the process started the biggest gold and bitcoin rally in history as the rest of the world parked its savings in non-USD assets, so the world's most important oil choke point will never again be viewed again in the same way after Iran launched dozens of rockets at the ships transiting it. 

This shift in perception is what James Thorne, chief market strategist of WellingtonAltus, called "Iran’s Historic Mistake"; he explains it as follows: 

By weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran committed a strategic blunder of historic proportions. Tehran meant to punish America. Instead, it exposed every power built on imported energy, vulnerable sea lanes, and the delusion that globalization repealed geography. China is exposed. Europe is exposed. Britain is exposed. Iran has created a world where hard resource power decides outcomes.

And the punchline:

Iran’s mistake is that once Hormuz becomes structurally unreliable, the world builds around it. That means bypass corridors, revived pipeline politics, and urgent planning for routes linking Aqaba to Mediterranean outlets near Gaza and the long-stalled Basra-to-Aqaba pipeline. The old energy order is cracking. The UAE’s OPEC exit signals cartel discipline giving way to national advantage under pressure.

The full note can be found here, and we didn't have long to wait to see the world it predicted begin to emerge. 

Earlier today, Nikkei Asia reported that Japan agreed to buy an additional 20 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates as Tokyo continues pursuing alternative supply channels amid the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Japan used 2.36 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025, the economy ministry reports. Based on this average, the additional 20 million barrels from the UAE could cover eight to nine days' worth of demand, so much more is coming. 

The deal was finalized Tuesday after Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's minister of economy, trade and industry, met with the Emirati industry minister in Abu Dhabi. Akazawa told reporters after the meeting that he had requested increased oil supplies for Japan. 

Roughly 40% of Japan's crude oil imports comes from the UAE. The Middle Eastern country, which left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, intends to gradually increase oil production at its own discretion, which could lead to more cooperation with Japan.

Japan will pick up the Emirati oil at the port of Fujairah on the UAE's eastern coast, which lies on the Gulf of Oman, allowing for crude exports without going through the Strait of Hormuz. 

The war in the Middle East -- a region on which Japan has relied for more than 90% of its oil supply -- has spurred Tokyo to approach other oil producers. It reached a deal last month to procure 1 million barrels of crude from Mexico. 

Recently Japan's government said that around 60% of the oil Japan needs this month can be sourced through channels that do not involve shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with releases from domestic stockpiles covering the remaining 40%.

Expect many more such deals from other Asian countries as passage through Hormuz will be one big question mark for years to come, absent a pro-Western regime taking control in Iran. 

Realizing the coming demand flood for its Fujairah-laden oil, and in anticipation of its post-OPEC renaissance, on May 3rd, UAE state energy company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Group, announced plans to award AED200bn (US$55bn) in upstream and downstream project contracts between 2026-28, at the 'Make it with ADNOC' forum in Abu Dhabi.

Omar Al Nuaimi, ADNOC’s Acting Group Chief, stated that ADNOC is moving into a new phase of accelerated, world-scale delivery to meet rising global energy demand. ''ADNOC is proud to continue reinforcing our role as a catalyst of the UAE’s industrial growth and an enabler of the Make it in the Emirates initiative,'' he told the Emirates News Agency (WAM) on the sidelines of ‘Make it With ADNOC’ Forum, held ahead of the Make it in the Emirates 2026.

''As part of this effort, we announced today at the ‘Make it with ADNOC’ Forum, our plan to award AED200 billion in projects over the next two years as part of our CAPEX approved by the Board in November,'' he said, explaining that the planned project awards span ADNOC’s upstream and downstream operations and usher in a new phase of project delivery that will supercharge UAE’s manufacturing capacity, strengthen industrial resilience, deepen the impact of the company’s In-Country Value program and advance the ‘Make it in the Emirates’ initiative.

In a note from Goldman (available here to pro subs), the bank writes that management characterized the announcement as marking the execution phase of its strategy, focused on scale, pace, and delivery to meet rising global energy demand while reinforcing the UAE's industrial base. The forum convened >400 participants, linking EPC contractors with qualified UAE-based manufacturers under the in-country value program. The award pipeline spans the entire upstream-to-downstream value chain, focusing on:

• Capacity expansion: Scaling of crude oil and gas production capacity alongside deeper downstream integration
• In-Country Value (ICV): Channelling spend through the Local+ program to prioritize UAE-manufactured inputs.
• Supply chain resilience: Localizing critical equipment sourcing to mitigate global disruption and cost inflation risk.

According to Goldman, this announcement represents the first tranche of its previously announced $150BN capex program for 2030. The bank views the announcement as positive for key enablers such as ADNOC Drilling and ADNOC L&S, as they stand to be the primary beneficiaries of the upstream and downstream award pipeline. Furthermore, the signaled US$55bn commitment over 2026-28 serves as a strong signal of ADNOC Group's expansion roadmap. Goldman sees upside risk to consensus numbers for the key enabler subsidiaries given the potential for accelerated execution timelines and higher-than-guided growth targets as ADNOC ramps up capacity across the value chain. 

More in the Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 15:20

'We Need People To Come Back': Dubai's Tourism Industry Reels As Foreigners Flee

Via Middle East Eye

Dubai is facing an existential crisis with the US and Israeli war on Iran forcing tourism numbers to fall sharply, with widespread hotel closures and job losses decimating the global tourism hotspots' hospitality sector.

On Monday, Dubai Airports reported that first-quarter passenger traffic was down by at least 2.5 million from the same period in 2025, with March seeing a 66 percent drop in passenger numbers as travelers chose to steer clear of the Gulf. 

Empty beds are pictured before high-rise buildings along a beach at Jumeirah Beach Residence (JBR) in Dubai on March 11, 2026. via AFP

The company did not specify forecasts for this year but on Saturday, in a bid to kickstart tourism, the UAE announced that all air travel restrictions that were put in place after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that house or cooperate closely with US forces had been lifted. 

In a post on their official X account, the Civil Aviation Authority wrote: "Our decision came following a comprehensive assessment of operational and security conditions, in coordination with the relevant authorities". The statement was clearly meant to relay confidence to international travelers, especially after several European airlines announced that they would be suspending flights to the Middle East. 

Workers and business owners in Dubai, who spoke to the Middle East Eye on condition of anonymity due GCC-wide restrictions on public statements about the effects of Tehran’s attacks, say it will still take some time to see if the announcement will restore confidence among travelers and investors.

Charity, a Kenyan hotel worker said the mid-priced hotel she works at was definitely affected by the 1.4 million people who travelled through the UAE over the first two weeks of March. During the Muslim month of Ramadan, when Iranian missile and drone attacks were at their worst, the hotel, part of a US-based chain, was full of stranded passengers who would meet with Emirates Airlines representatives in the lobby. 

During the month, the hotel's pool was closed to guests and by the final days, guests staying in the higher floors of the 20-floor building were moved to the lower floors as a precautionary measure. After that, though, she said "things really slowed down for a few weeks".

She said she hoped the announcement would provide some assurance to travelers. "We'll see over the next week if people really start to come back," she said while helping a long-time American traveler. "We need your people [foreign tourists] to come back," she added.

So far, even longtime passengers say there has been a noticeable shift in the mood at Dubai International, which has been the world’s busiest airport for international passenger traffic for 12 consecutive years.

Samina, a South Asian NGO worker who travels between South Asia, the Gulf and North America, said the change was particularly noticeable in her most recent trips over the two months.

"Coming in, it's empty," she said of Terminal 3, home of Emirates Airlines. "Terminal 1 and 2 are ghost towns," she said of the buildings that are home to other international carriers and FlyDubai, the UAE's budget airline.

She said international airlines suspending flights to the region have definitely taken a toll on traffic, "Every time you get in, it's all the same transit passengers."

According to Dubai Airports, only 51 out of 90 airlines have resumed their operations at the airport, with European and US airlines facing difficulties securing insurance cover due to government travel advisories

'Ethos of Dubai was shaken'

For its part, Dubai is working hard to support and reassure its residents. Travelling around the city, there is an abundance of UAE flags outside homes and businesses and on digital signs and billboards along the highways.

At the City Walk shopping center there are massive electronic signs thanking UAE residents in Arabic and English. Pictures of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan are emblazoned along major roads with the statement: May our nation remain in God’s protection". Other signs show Emirati families saluting the flag with the same words.

However, longtime residents and business owners say the impact of the intercepted missiles and drones was felt almost immediate.

Tatiana, a Russian national who runs a logistics company for businesses looking to setup shop in the Gulf, and she said even she was shocked at how quickly the mood shifted for existing and prospective businesses. "Within the first two weeks people [said] it's no longer worth [living here]. They weren't scared per se, they just felt like it's no longer worth it". 

"Businesses were suddenly liquidating their assets." She said her family was now looking at options in Europe to gradually shift to.

Antoine, an editor who helps train amateur writers said one of his clients who works at an advertising agency was left with the burden of those liquidations. "She was in charge of finding 1,000 workers in the UAE to let go of," he said. Antoine was particularly struck by the fact that even an advertising firm would be so immediately impacted.

"You'd think advertising would be a war-proof industry," he said. Tatiana said her work has been particularly affected by the attacks.  "Our whole business is predicated on assuring people that the UAE is a safe, convenient place to do business," she said.

Her statement is almost identical to what Arjun, one of the 3.5 to 4.3 million Indian residents of the UAE, said outside a late evening screening of the Michael Jackson biopic. Arjun said he was happy to see the screening at near capacity, hoping it was a sign of a gradual return to normal. "The entire ethos of Dubai as this place free from conflict was shaken," he said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 15:00

'Still So Early On This Journey': Morgan Stanley Launches Lower-Cost Crypto Trading

Just a week after Amy Oldenburg, Morgan Stanley’s head of digital assets, spent the better part of an hour making a case for bitcoin that few clients have heard in full (a gap she says is the industry’s most urgent problem), the bank announces the launch of crypto trading on E*Trade, charging 50bps in a pilot that undercuts rivals like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Charles Schwab.

CoinDesk reports that Morgan Stanley’s Head of Wealth Management, Jed Finn, said the initiative goes beyond offering cheaper crypto trading and is aimed at “disintermediating the disintermediators,” framing it as a broader structural shift in how clients access digital assets.

The investment banking giant plans to roll the service out to all 8.6 million ETrade customers later this year.

The latest offering builds on a series of crypto-related moves in recent months, including the launch of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, with planned products tied to ether and solana.

Morgan Stanley has also advanced efforts on the infrastructure side, applying for a national trust bank charter that would enable it to directly custody digital assets.

Sources told Bloomberg that the bank is also mulling services that enable conversation of crypto holdings into exchange-traded products without selling and is preparing for potential tokenized equity trading later this year.

These moves are set to amplify competition in a market where Coinbase generated $3.32 billion in consumer transaction revenue in 2025, while Robinhood reported nearly $1 billion in crypto-related revenue.

But, as Bitcoin Magazine reports, the education problem runs deep, according to Oldenburg.

Oldenburg: Bitcoin has an education problem 

Many investors still associate bitcoin with its early history of use by bad actors, and struggle to see past that frame when weighing an allocation. 

Oldenburg said that when clients ask about yield or structured exposure, her team tries to be direct: “you can present it as a yield, but the underlying asset is bitcoin.” That clarity, she said, is still missing from most conversations in the market, and there is “so much more work to do.”

MSBT pulled in more than $100 million in its first week of trading, a strong early signal for a product the bank describes as designed for the full spectrum of its client base rather than a narrow segment. 

But Oldenburg was quick to put that number in context. All of the initial flows came through self-directed accounts, because the fund had not yet been made available on the advisory platform.

She noted that the bank has announced a 2–4% crypto allocation recommendation, and that even with that guidance in place, take-up through advisors has been slow.

The product, she reminded the audience, has been on the market for less than a year.

To bridge that gap, Morgan Stanley is working from the inside out. Oldenburg said the firm is rolling out internal training so that financial advisors can speak to clients on bitcoin with confidence, and that her team spends “hour after hour after hour” on the phone walking clients through models and allocation frameworks. 

She said the bank designs products for clients with different needs and wants its platform to cover each of those needs, including clients who want a direct ETP wrapper, and that spot crypto trading is coming for those on the wealth management side.

On custodians, Oldenburg acknowledged the complexity of the decision. The market has no shortage of providers, and choosing among them was not straightforward, which led the firm to work with more than one. Morgan Stanley ultimately tapped Coinbase and BNY Mellon as custodians for MSBT.

When the conversation turned to high-beta bitcoin plays, Oldenburg called Strategy, the Michael Saylor-led company formerly known as MicroStrategy, “a good friend of Morgan Stanley,” and said the bank has worked alongside it through its evolution. 

She said most of the exposure in that vehicle so far is coming from retail and that “digital credit” as a category will take time to develop.

Morgan Stanley buying bitcoin is “not out of the question”

On the question of banks holding bitcoin on their balance sheets, Oldenburg said it is “not out of the question” if regulatory progress continues, but was measured in framing it. 

The U.S. needs greater alignment among its financial regulators, she said, and for a global firm like Morgan Stanley, the picture is more complex still — each jurisdiction comes with its own framework.

She closed where she began: on the need for research with reach. The market has commentators and personalities that investors trust and follow, she said, and the work ahead is to bring that kind of accessible, grounded analysis into the mainstream. 

“We are still so early on this journey,” she said. “So little allocation. It’s still really early.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 14:40

'Don't Even Think About Selling': Mr. Gold Warns US 'Officially A Banana Republic'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Last time financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) was on USAW, he said don’t even think about selling any gold or silver.  One of the big reasons why he is still saying this is the news last week that the US debt to GDP ratio is now at 100%. 

Mr. Gold says, “I have talked for years about how the entire world runs on credit.  What we started this off with is the United States is officially a banana republic.  It’s 100% debt to GDP..."

"When I was in school in the early 1980s, the definition of a banana republic is when it hit 100% debt to GDP. 

In this instance, it is the issuer of the world’s reserve currency that is admitting it is officially a banana republic.  

Everything runs on credit.  The biggest issuer of credit is the United States, and if their credit card gets declined, then what does that do to the real economy? 

Nothing will work.  There will be nothing on shelves.  Stores will be dark. 

Should you store food? 

The answer is yes because something really bad is right in front of us.  It’s a credit collapse.”

So, the Trump Administration is not going to just let everything collapse. 

What is the contingency plan? 

Mr. Gold says, “I think the contingency plan is oil..."

"They went after Maduro.  So, they have taken control of the Venezuelan oil supply.  They want to do the same thing elsewhere. 

I mean President Trump said in his own words, he said basically we are pirates, and we are going to take Iran’s oil. 

I think that’s the plan. 

It is to control more oil and keep the petrodollar system alive.  Is it going to work?  I think, ultimately, it will not work because the numbers are far too upside down at this point.  If you really look under the hood, the Federal Reserve itself is insolvent.  And we have not even talked about derivatives. 

Derivatives are the gorilla in the room.  In the derivative market, you are looking at $2 quadrillion in derivatives.  Once you get things off sides, and an example of that is look at the British yields, they are back to pushing 7%.  They are back to rates that are the same as in 1998.  So, all of the easing is gone. 

Everything runs on credit, and once you gum up credit, you start affecting the real economy.  Then, there is less cash flow in the real economy, and that spills over into the financial economy and financial markets.  Derivatives are the biggest danger.  Warren Buffett calls them mass financial destruction. 

It should not go unnoticed that Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on $400 billion of cash, which is the biggest hoard they have ever had.  In 1998, the financial media called him an idiot, and what happened in 2000?  Buffett was an idiot again in early 2008.  What happened in late 2008 and 2009? 

Buffett is not an idiot, and for him to say now that there is nothing out there of value to buy and I’d rather have cash, that tells you a pretty big story.”

On silver, Holter says, “I think we are reloading for a much larger event than we saw in November to January."

"That 90 days was spectacular, but I think this next move is going to dwarf that.”  Holter says many big analysts are predicting silver much, much higher by the end of the year.

There is much more in the 42-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter/Mr. Gold as the “credit collapse” in the financial system begins for 5.5.26.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 14:20

Blue Energy & GE Vernova Bet On Gas Bridge-To-Nuclear For AI Power

Blue Energy announced a collaboration with GE Vernova to develop the world's first gas-plus-nuclear power plant in Texas.

The project will use two GE Vernova gas turbines to deliver roughly 1 GW starting around 2030. Steam supply will later shift to GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 small modular reactors for up to 1.5 GW of nuclear capacity by 2032. 

Work at the Texas site could begin as early as this year, with a final investment decision expected in 2027.

The plan is similar to other announcements from companies like Oklo and Liberty Energy that plan to deploy gas power turbines at proposed energy sites to initiate power delivery and revenue collection while the longer leg of building the reactor continues in the background. 

Easier said than done, though. The NRC would normally never be involved in a gas energy project, but if it will share facilities with a future nuclear project, then things get a little more interesting. This is why Blue Energy submitted a plan, and recently received approval, for how to involve the NRC with the construction of a gas-to-nuclear site. 

This new sequencing of gas-to-nuclear allows for power delivery to the data center or grid to begin in under four years, compared to as many as ten years if it was a purely nuclear project. 

Depending on the location, it may be too little too late. Especially on the east coast…

Next summer the Eastern seaboard will look like North Korea at night thanks to chatbots pic.twitter.com/NEY97pa1LB

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 6, 2026

This is where people usually start pointing fingers at the data center for creating the problem. Blaming hyperscalers though requires looking away from the fact that new power generation is also being delayed to connect to the grid. 

Constellation's restart of the Three Mile Island Reactor is currently facing a four-year delay from PJM. The reactor will be ready to provide clean energy to the grid in 2027, but has been told to wait until 2031 to actually connect. 

Extreme demand from data centers is not the source of the problem. Decades of neglect with grid upgrades are the real reasons for the grid's inability to bolt on new supply and demand, and is now driving costs through the roof. 
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 14:05

Ken Griffin "Doubles Down On Miami" After Mamdani's "Creepy And Weird" Video Vilifying Him

Ken Griffin said New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s push for higher taxes on second homes has reinforced Citadel’s commitment to Miami — and even led the firm to scale up its planned headquarters there, according to Bloomberg.

Speaking Tuesday at the Milken Institute Global Conference, Griffin said Citadel decided to enlarge its Miami office project after Mamdani publicly referenced his $238 million Central Park South penthouse while promoting a new pied-à-terre tax proposal.

“We went to Miami and revised our building plan to make it a bigger office building,” Griffin said. “What the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners, and principally my New York partners, is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami.”

Bloomberg writes that Griffin said he watched Mamdani’s video three times and described it as “creepy and weird.”

He added that the situation brought back memories of his departure from Chicago, where he previously criticized local leadership before moving Citadel and Citadel Securities to Florida.

“Looking at what Mamdani did to me and more broadly is doing to the city of New York is triggering the trauma I went through in Chicago,” Griffin said.

A spokesperson for Mamdani defended the mayor’s stance, saying he supports entrepreneurs but believes New York’s tax structure needs reform so wealthy residents contribute more.

Citadel still has nearly 2,500 employees in New York City and is involved in a separate $6 billion office tower project at 350 Park Avenue. But Griffin suggested Miami has clearly won out.

“What do we do at 350 is still a point of discussion internally, but what is no longer a point of discussion is when we moved from Chicago, there was a debate between New York and Miami,” Griffin said. “It’s unquestionably true that we made the right choice.”

He also took aim at states he views as unfriendly to businesses.

“We want to be in a state that embraces business, that embraces education, that embraces personal freedom and liberty and that embraces people having an opportunity to live the American dream,” Griffin said. “Not a dream of redistributive handouts that leave people dependent on government for their lives and their livelihoods.”

We wrote two weeks ago: "New York City is a global icon and the uncomfortable truth is this: the people Mamdani is turning into political props are the same ones writing the checks. And they have options."

And now it looks as though Ken Griffin is exercising those options...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 13:25

China Wants Iran War End, Pushes 'Immediate' Hormuz Reopening During Araghchi Visit Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is currently in Beijing meeting with his Chinese counterpart, FM Wang Yi, and the timing of the visit sends a resounding message to Washington and the West. The highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting is still scheduled for next week, expected for May 14-15, though there has been ample speculation the ongoing events of the unpredictable Iran war and Hormuz Strait crisis could derail the trip at the last minute.

Of course, Iran and the question of peace will be high on the agenda as Trump visits - and currently it seems the White House is desperate to set in place some kind of final offramp, given the Tuesday night 'pause' in Project Freedom operations in the Gulf.

Upon the occasion of Araghchi's visit, Foreign Minister Wang has taken the opportunity to again call for the immediate opening of the strait. And the Iranian top diplomat seconded this at a moment the US Navy has imposed an effective blockade of Iranian ports, which of course severely impacts Iranian oil going to China. "Currently, it is possible to resolve the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible," Xinhua quoted Araghchi as saying.

Source: Iranian Foreign Ministry

Wang during the meeting also called for a "comprehensive ceasefire," saying his country is deeply distressed by the war. Xinhua further quoted him as saying:

"The international community shares a common concern for restoring normal and safe passage through the Strait, and China hopes the relevant parties will respond as quickly as possible to the strong calls from the international community."

The two sides are clearly coordinating their messaging to some degree, given Wang also expressed that China "appreciates Iran’s pledge to not develop nuclear weapons."

Tehran has for years insisted its program is only for peaceful nuclear energy development and for domestic needs, but has amid Trump's Operation Epic Fury made clear it will never given up its right to enriched uranium. It has said this is as "sacred as the soil" and sees it as a matter of national sovereignty. This in the face of US demands that it transfer all nuclear material out of the country.

More out of Beijing on Wednesday:

“We believe that a comprehensive ceasefire brooks no delay, a resumption of hostilities is inadvisable, and persisting with negotiations is particularly important,” Wang told Araghchi at the start of their meeting, according to footage released by Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV.

...Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to press Iran to ease its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes.

As for what China gains in this high-level diplomacy and engagement with Tehran at a moment it could face more US and Israeli bombs, Associated Press presents the following:

Some noted that the Iranian foreign minister visited at Beijing’s initiative. "It’s China exercising their leverage... to summon the Iranian foreign minister," said Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University.

"By holding the talks with the Iranians, you can't fault for them not putting in any effort," Hoo said.

As for some further specifics to come out of the Araghchi-Wang meeting, Iran "expressed appreciation for China’s four-point proposal" - according to a readout in semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA).

Hilarious that the message Rubio is asking China to give Iran during Araghchi's Beijing visit is that Iran is "globally isolated" when the very fact he's invited to China (and that China is now fighting US sanctions on Iran's oil) proves they aren't.pic.twitter.com/UUGmfrL2d1

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) May 6, 2026

"Iran supports the formation of a new framework for the post-war period in the region" the readout adds. As for the 'four points' - these were issued by Beijing earlier in the conflict and are quite broad. These official points are featured below in their entirety, via Chinese state sources:

• Stay committed to the principle of peaceful coexistence. The Gulf states in the Middle East are close neighbours that cannot move away. It’s important to support the Gulf states in improving their ties, work to build a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security architecture of the Middle East and the Gulf region, and consolidate the foundation for peaceful coexistence.

• Stay committed to the principle of national sovereignty. Sovereignty serves as a foundation for all countries, especially developing countries, to survive and thrive, and it must not be violated.

• Stay committed to the principle of international rule of law. We should safeguard the authority of international rule of law, reject selective application, and prevent the world from returning to the law of the jungle. It is important to firmly uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core, the international order based on international law, and the basic norms governing international relations underpinned by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.

• Stay committed to a balanced approach to development and security. Security is a prerequisite for development and development serves as a safeguard of security.

If negotiations between the US and Iran don't proceed, and if they stay at 'square one', this could weaken any big leverage President Trump hopes to have entering his meeting with Xi Jinping. This is perhaps why American officials are scrambling to cobble something together, to at least cite progress toward resolving the Hormuz situation. Still Trump has insisted he has "all the cards" when it comes to Iran.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 11:20

ABC Reporter Fabricated Trump Call, Made Himself The Focus After Assassination Attempt

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

President Trump has slammed ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl for what he calls outright dishonest reporting after Karl inserted himself into the story of the latest assassination attempt on the president.

Karl appeared on ABC’s This Week shortly afterward and claimed Trump had reached out to him personally. “My phone rang shortly after 7 a.m., my landline, George actually. A number that few people call and it was President Trump calling,” Karl told host George Stephanopoulos.

Karl further claimed that Trump “said at first he was calling to see if I was okay with what happened last night. ‘Are you OK?’ And then he reiterated many of the things he said in his press conference last night emphasizing the unity that he felt in that moment that he felt at the dinner before the shooting and certainly after with people who reached out to him… And he was quite firm about this: That dinner must be rescheduled.”

NEWS: President Trump BLAST ABC News’ Jonathan Karl: “Jonathan Karl, of ABC Fake News, made a statement that I called him early in the morning, the day after the assassination attempt, to ask whether or not HE was OK. No, this was a hit on ME, not HIM, and I didn’t make such a… pic.twitter.com/Xh9chkU2S2

— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) May 4, 2026

This week, Trump responded directly on Truth Social, blasting the claim as pure fabrication designed to center Karl rather than the president who had just survived another attempt on his life.

“Jonathan Karl, of ABC Fake News, made a statement that I called him early in the morning, the day after the assassination attempt, to ask whether or not HE was OK. No, this was a hit on ME, not HIM, and I didn’t make such a call, why would I do that?” Trump remarked.

The president added, “He called me, but I didn’t take his call — He just confirmed that to me when he called again. I would say that’s very dishonest reporting. He’s trying to make himself look important but, I’m not surprised, because it comes from ABC Fake News!”

This appears to be somewhat deranged behavior from a legacy media figure desperate to remain relevant. Instead of focusing on the security failures, the gunman’s motives, or the president’s resolve, Karl turned the story into a narcissistic fantasy about himself – the brave reporter Trump supposedly felt compelled to check on at 7 a.m. the morning after an attack aimed squarely at the commander-in-chief.

This latest episode fits a long pattern of tension between Trump and ABC News. Readers will recall our earlier coverage of Trump calling out Karl and other ABC figures for biased and obnoxious questioning.

Trump also torched an obnoxious ABC fake news reporter over misleading boat strike video: 

And of course, ABC was forced to pay out a massive $15 million settlement last year after falsely calling Trump a rapist: 

The derangement doesn’t stop with the press. In a related development that perfectly captures the upside-down priorities in Washington, a D.C. judge has now apologized to the alleged assassin himself over his treatment in custody.

U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui expressed “grave concerns” about conditions at the D.C. jail, including solitary confinement and suicide watch protocols for Cole Allen, telling the suspect directly he was “very troubled” by the reported treatment. 

While security for Trump and the public remains under scrutiny after multiple attempts on the president’s life, the system bends over backward to ensure the accused gunman feels comfortable.

This is the same media and institutional class that spent years demonizing Trump, only to now feign shock when violence follows their rhetoric. 

The fake news machine keeps exposing itself, and each time it does, trust in legacy outlets like ABC erodes further.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:50

WTI Holds Rebound Gains As US Fuel Exports Hit Record High, Production Dips, Huge SPR Drain

Oil prices are lower overnight (but dramatically off their lows) amid on-again, off-again optimism of an imminent US-Iran peace deal.

Benchmark Brent fell as much as 12% to $96.75 a barrel in London, while West Texas Intermediate dropped up to 13%. European natural gas plunged as much as 14%.

Oil and gas later pared about half of those losses after Trump said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday that if Iran doesn’t agree, “the bombing starts.”

Overnight we saw huge across the board drawdowns in US energy inventories reported by API (and a huge SPR drain). All eyes on the official data this morning...

API

• Crude -8.1mm (-2.8mm exp)

• Cushing -1mm

• Gasoline -6.1mm

• Distillates -4.6mm

DOE

• Crude -2.313mm (-2.8mm exp)

• Cushing -648k

• Gasoline -2.504mm

• Distillates -1.294mm

For the second week in a row, US inventories saw significant declines across the board with products seeing the biggest draws. Crude's drawdown was a modest disappointment (especially after API's big report)...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, crude stockpiles remain elevated (but are drawing down)...

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps most notably, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is seeing massive drawdowns to support the global loss of supply from Hormuz.

Source: Bloomberg

On the back of that draw, Bloomberg's energy guru, Javier Blas, dropped this stunning chart showing that, on a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have recovered to their pre-war level due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. Of course, that's helped by massive stock drawdowns / SPR drain, but still...

Additionally, last week saw US crude exports actually decline (after nearing the unprecedented level of 100 million barrels in 7 days). The decline in crude cargoes headed overseas pulled down overall US oil and fuels exports from record high levels also set the week earlier, even as fuel exports rose to the highest weekly level ever.

Source: Bloomberg

The US has sent out at least 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day since the week of April 3.

US crude production continued to trend lower...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI fell dramatically below $100 overnight but amid Trump's 'bombastic' comments and Iranian denials, pries are well off their lows

“The oil price is reacting on shift in sentiment instead of market balances, driven by news of a potential deal between the US and Iran,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich.

“It remains unclear when flow through the strait would resume.”

Still, any breakthrough in peace talks will take much longer to filter through to energy markets.

“When the Strait opens we do believe it will take half a year for oil to get back to normal,” Equinor Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan said on the company’s quarterly earnings conference call.

“For gas, it will take much longer.”

And that's important for the Midterms...

The 4-week moving average for US gasoline implied demand ticked higher week-on-week, but the more volatile weekly data showed a weekly decline and dipped below the 5-year average.

It is too early to tell, but elevated gasoline prices could be finally eating into demand.

Trump has repeatedly claimed prices will come down rapidly once the Strait is reopened - we shall see.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:40

UBS Says Transport Stock Rout Is "Overdone" After Amazon News

UBS senior analyst Tom Wadewitz, who covers freight transportation, told clients that Amazon's latest push to open its supply chain network to businesses beyond its own marketplace triggered an "overdone" sell-off in transport names, including UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson.

Wadewitz said the risk is not new, noting that Amazon's supply chain service has been around since 2023. He said the pullback has created attractive entry points in select transport stocks, particularly UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson.

"While we view AMZN's strategy of selling transportation services as a negative for transports generally, it is not a new risk and the supply chain service is also not new. We believe the significant sell-off in transport names was overdone," Wadewitz said.

The main risk is in B2B parcel, Wadewitz said, adding that Amazon's growing third-party shipping ambitions could pressure UPS and FedEx over the medium term.

However, he said the threat is not a surprise, since Amazon has been active in parcel delivery for years. He also noted that there is limited near-term risk in international express because Amazon's air fleet is mostly domestic narrow-body aircraft.

The immediate market reaction in transport stocks, including UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson, to Amazon's news was a roughly 10% drop at the start of the week. Some of those losses had been recovered by mid-week.

Wadewitz explained to clients why the "pullback creates attractive entry points for UPS, FDX, and CHRW" ...

We believe the cost reduction and network efficiency initiatives of UPS and FDX support margin improvement and EPS growth on a multi-year basis. While AMZN's focus on growing in transport markets is a risk, we also don't view it as a new risk.

In our view, investors already assume that the addressable domestic parcel market for UPS and FDX is a slow growth market (eg in part due to impact of AMZN).

We view the ~10% pullbacks in UPS and FDX as providing attractive entry points.

With respect to CHRW, we do not expect AMZN's supply chain initiative to have a noticeable impact on the brokerage market which is already a highly competitive market. We expect the combination of an upcycle in truckload pricing and acceleration in labor productivity for CHRW in 2H26 to support attractive EPS growth and support upside for the stock. We would also recommend buying CHRW on the pullback in the stock.

Professional subscribers can read the full transport note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:30

Israel Says Preparing For Escalation With Iran, Didn't Know Deal Was Close: 'Series Of Targets Ready'

Wednesday saw yet another early morning Axios 'scoop' that within hours of being issued proved premature and too out front, given talk of Iran and the US being 'close' to a deal was quickly denied by Tehran and even President Trump quickly acknowledged it's "too soon" to plan peace talks with Iran.

But the headline of "US and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war" was enough to raise alarm bells in Israel, which has insisted that the conflict must end with a nuclear-free Iran.

Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, via IDF/TOI

"Israel was unaware that US President Donald Trump was close to reaching an agreement with Iran to end the fighting and open the Strait of Hormuz," an Israeli official told Army Radio soon after the optimistic peace deal headlines went international.

"We were preparing for an escalation," the official said. Indeed the last couple weeks of stalled Pakistan-mediated talks have seen several reports out of Israel saying the Netanyahu government is waiting for the 'green light' from Washington to renew the aerial bombing campaign, which took place over prior 38 days as part of Operation Epic Fury.

But as of Tuesday Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Epic Fury was ending, and that Project Freedom - to open the Strait of Hormuz - is the new focus. But even after that President Trump in the evening announced a 'pause' to allow negotiations to proceed.

So there has been much confusion and contradictory signaling out of Washington to say the least. Tehran has meanwhile made clear its "finger is on the trigger" - but Israel is also saying the same thing.

For example, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir on Wednesday made it known that military has a "series of targets" ready to strike in Iran at the moment the war resumes.

"Cooperation with the United States military and coordination continue at all times, and we are monitoring the situation," he stated during a visit to southern Lebanon, where Israel ground forces are occupying territory.

"In Iran, we have a further series of targets ready for attack. We are on high alert to return to an intense and broad campaign that will allow us to deepen our achievements and further weaken the Iranian regime," Zamir said further.

Kind of wild that Barak Ravid has predicted seven of the last zero peace deals between the US and Iran.

— Justin Logan (@JustinTLogan) May 6, 2026

As for anti-Hezbollah operations, and despite the Lebanon ceasefire officially in effect, the top military general said: "We will seize every opportunity to deepen the blow to Hezbollah and its continued weakening."

None of this bodes well for a lasting ceasefire in Lebanon, also as the broader Iran ceasefire is certainly on shaky ground, given this week's cross-Gulf attacks on UAE out of the Islamic Republic.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 10:15

U.S. Gasoline Tops $4.50 As "Shock & Awe" Level Approaches

WTI futures plunged more than 11% to the $90-a-barrel level after Axios reported earlier this morning that the U.S. is nearing a preliminary agreement with Iran to end the war. The sharp decline suggests traders are beginning to price in a potential geopolitical de-escalation and the potential reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint.

At the pump, however, the latest AAA data as of Wednesday morning show that the national average for regular 87-octane gasoline has climbed to $4.50 a gallon, the highest level since July 2022.

There will be a lag. Even if the Trump administration and Tehran formalize a deal in the near term, the immediate result will not be a collapse in gas and diesel pump prices, but rather an approaching peak.

Lower crude prices typically take a few weeks to work through wholesale markets, inventories, distribution networks, and retail outlets before meaningful declines in gas and diesel are visible at pump stations to consumers.

During a Monday press conference, Trump said he expects the price of gasoline to drop "substantially" following the end of the US-Iran war.

"I see it going down very substantially when this is over, I think very rapidly too, at levels that you've never seen because there's a lot of energy out there, ships all over the world that are loaded up with it," Trump said.

"They can't do much with it because they got kidnapped by a pretty evil place. But we're taking care of it."

Last week, Trump said pump prices would "come crashing down as soon as this war is over."

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan warned that the $5-a-gallon threshold is typically the "shock and awe" level that triggers demand destruction.

With the national average for gas already near $4.50 a gallon, and California prices above $6, the political and consumer pressure backdrop for the Trump administration has intensified in recent weeks.

The administration now appears to be pushing hard for a near-term Iran resolution ahead of Memorial Day weekend, one of the largest U.S. driving periods of the year after Thanksgiving.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 09:40

Treasury Refunding: No Changes To Auction Sizes; Bessent Keeps "At Least" In Forward Guidance

In our preview to this morning's Quarterly Refunding Statement, we said that we do not expect major changes and that, at most, the treasury might adjust its statement language to soften the forward guidance on possibly futures increase in coupon auction sizes with one likely change would be dropping “at least” while retaining the expectation for unchanged coupon sizes over “the next several quarters” (recall Deutsche Bank said it expects nominal coupon increases beginning in February 2027). 

Overnight, JPMorgan agreed, writing that while the current auction calendar will leave Treasury well financed through FY27, "we do not think it will be adequate to meet the widening funding gap from FY27 and onward, and we continue to project a series of coupon auction increases beginning in February 2027." Accordingly, like DB, JPM also expected the Treasury to remove “at least” from the statement that “Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." The bank said that If its expectations are realized, "we think this could push intermediate yields higher."

Well, moments ago the Treasury published its latest Quarterly Refunding Announcement, and contrary to prevailing expectations, it refused to make even a gentle hint at rising coupon sizes by keeping the "at least" language from the abovementioned statement, instead keeping it as is, or rather as was: 

Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters

In other words, the US Treasury signaled again that it’s still comfortable using Yellen's Activist Treasury Issuance playbook to issue Bills, and not increase coupon issuance, to meet escalating government borrowing needs, even as warnings emerge about the strategy’s risks.

Ahead of the QRA, dealers were divided heading into the so-called quarterly refunding release on whether it might alter its guidance. Outsize US fiscal deficits make an expansion in longer-dated auctions practically inevitable at some stage. The department on Monday boosted its estimate for net borrowing this quarter amid lower net cash flows.

US debt managers have been using the same forward guidance since early 2024, in a policy that’s steadily boosted the share of bills of total debt outstanding (to roughly 22% from 14% before covid). The International Monetary Fund cautioned last month that this leaves federal debt costs more vulnerable to sudden swings in rates and shifts in sentiment, because auctions are more frequent.

And sure enough, with no changes to the forward guidance:

• *TREASURY YIELDS EDGE LOWER AFTER UNCHANGED GUIDANCE ON AUCTIONS

The rest of the statement was also in line with expectations, with the Treasury stating "it believes its current auction sizes leave it well positioned to address potential changes to the fiscal outlook and to the size and composition of the SOMA portfolio." It added that it was monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills and growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector.  And, as before, looking ahead the treasury continues to evaluate potential future increases to nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, with a focus on trends in structural demand and potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles. 

Looking at the actual refunding auctions next, the Treasury’s refunding debt sales will total $125 billion, unchanged from the sum unveiled in February and in line with the expectations of Wall Street bond dealers.

Treasury also maintained guidance on coupon sizes for the coming quarters. Refunding issuance to raise new cash of approximately $41.7BN (offering $125BN to refund $83.3BN).

• Treasury to sell $58bn of 3-year notes on May 11
• Treasury to sell $42bn of 10-year notes on May 12
• Treasury to sell $25bn of 30-year bonds on May 13

The table below presents the actual auction sizes for the February to April 2026 quarter and the anticipated auction sizes for the May to July 2026 quarter: 

The total compares to a peak of $126BN first reached in Feb. 2021; auction sizes across the curve began rising in 2018 to finance tax cuts and surged in 2020 to finance the federal pandemic response, and to give the Fed's QE X securities to buy.

Here are some other highlights from the Refunding report: 

Bills

• Treasury expects to further increase offering sizes of shorter-dated benchmark bills over the coming weeks and, in late-May, anticipates issuing a short-dated CMB to meet the peak liquidity needs at the end of May due to maturing coupon securities.
• Given projections for receipts associated with the mid-month corporate and non-withheld tax date, Treasury expects to implement modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes during the month of June. 
• Thereafter, in July, Treasury anticipates incrementally increasing bill auction sizes across the curve.  As always, Treasury will continue to evaluate near-term borrowing needs and assess additional adjustments to bill auction sizes as appropriate

TIPS

• Treasury plans to maintain the 10-year TIPS reopening this May at $19 billion; the five-year TIPS reopening in June at $24 billion; and the 10-year TIPS new issue at $21 billion in July

20-year

• Treasury is modifying settlement timing for 20-year bond reopening auctions.
• From the reopening auction scheduled for June 16th, 20-year reopening auctions will settle on the Friday of the auction week, while new issues will continue to settle at month end.

Buybacks (lowers cash management buybacks in 1mth-2-year, maintains liquidity support buybacks)

• Expects to purchase up to USD 38bln in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support (unchanged) and up to USD 25bln in the 1-month to 2-year maturity bucket for cash management purposes (prev. USD 75bln in Q1).

Cash Balance

• Treasury is assuming a $900 billion cash balance at the end of June.
• Treasury estimates that the size of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could peak at $1 trillion (plus or minus $50 billion) in late July.  This figure is consistent with Treasury’s long-standing cash balance policy and is driven by the large outflows expected to occur at that time. 

TBAC Minutes

• Director Pietrangeli says while current issuance sizes are adequate to cover expected borrowing needs for the remainder of FY2026 (prev. Treasury is slightly overfunded in FY2026)
• The median primary dealer forecast for privately-held net marketable borrowing implies a USD 1.3tln funding shortfall in FY2027-28 based on current coupon auction sizes and bill supply (prev. saw USD 1.1trln).
• Debt Manager Jensen says dealers generally anticipate that nominal coupon auction sizes might next increase in early CY2027 (prev. late CY 2026 or CY early 2027), and expect Treasury to modify its forward guidance several quarters ahead of such a change.
• The TBACCommittee unanimously recommended that Treasury maintain nominal coupon, FRN, and TIPS auction sizes at current levels
• TBAC continues to believe that increases in coupon issuance could be warranted in FY2027 and discussed potential changes to the forward guidance for Treasury to consider
• Committee had a "healthy debate" whether Treasury should consider investing excess cash in the overnight Treasury repo market to generate investment returns while “maintaining prudent risk management and avoiding market disruptions”
  • Key design choices mentioned by Committee members include the time of day that Treasury deploys cash into the repo market, the specific market segment that Treasury would invest in (e.g., triparty, centrally cleared), and Treasury’s required return
  • Presenter stressed that the economic viability of investing in the repo market is dependent on the spread between the rate Treasury earns on repo investments and the Federal Reserve’s interest on reserve balances rate (IORB)
  • Committee agreed that while there are potential economic returns from such investments, their size and economic viability depend on the market environment and monetary policy, and that additional study is warranted regarding operational and implementation considerations
• Committee discussed the expansion of central clearing in Treasury securities market and the presenter reviewed key areas of progress by both the industry and regulators since the extension of the implementation deadlines, noting the recent increase in central clearing activity
• Presenter highlighted recent requests for exemptions related to certain inter-affiliate and extraterritorial transactions as key outstanding issues to resolve
• Presenter concluded that, although the industry has made steady progress, some operational and implementation challenges remain as the market transitions to expanded central clearing

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 09:24

NANO Nuclear Soars On Strategic MOU With Supermicro For Powering AI Data Centers 

NANO Nuclear and Supermicro have agreed to explore the integration of NANO’s KRONOS microreactor system with Supermicro’s AI server and data center platforms for scalable nuclear-powered solutions. The news of the strategic collaboration - a critical moment in the integration of alternative energy source within the AI rollout - sent the stock soaring in pre-market

We anticipate the shorts are also taking notice with over 22% of shares loaned out…

“The AI revolution is fundamentally an energy challenge,” said Jay Yu, Chairman and President of NANO Nuclear, “and we believe nuclear power is the only scalable solution capable of meeting that demand.”

Through this MOU, NANO Nuclear and Supermicro will explore opportunities to:

• Deploy NANO Nuclear's microreactors to provide dedicated, on-site nuclear power for data centers.
• Integrate Supermicro's AI server racks, cooling systems, and infrastructure with nuclear-powered energy solutions.
• Develop joint go-to-market strategies for hyperscale, enterprise, and edge data center customers.
• Enable a new class of self-powered, grid-independent AI infrastructure.

"This is exactly where the future is heading compute and power becoming a unified solution," said James Walker, Chief Executive Officer of NANO Nuclear. "By aligning with Supermicro, NANO Nuclear is stepping directly into the center of one of the fastest growing and most capital-intensive markets in the world."

By partnering with Supermicro, NANO Nuclear gains direct alignment with a company at the forefront of the AI infrastructure buildout, providing:

• Access to global data center customers and hyperscale operators.
• Integration pathways with state-of-the-art AI hardware ecosystems.
• A channel into one of the fastest-growing sectors of the global economy.

NANO is able to lean into their significant progress of deploying a KRONOS microreactor at the University of Illinois. The company recently submitted their construction permit application for the project and is well into the site preparation phase.

The company has also made strides with new partnerships in the Asian market, and has an agreement with BaRupOn for up to 1 GW of KRONOS microreactors for a data center campus in Texas. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/06/2026 - 09:00