Trump–Xi Summit Preview: What's At Stake

Authored by Sean Tseng via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China from March 31 to April 2 for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. What was already shaping up to be a high-stakes meeting on tariffs, trade rules, tech controls, and Taiwan has become more complicated in the past few weeks.

U.S. President Donald Trump (2R), flanked by Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, speaks during a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Gimhae Air Base on Oct. 30, 2025 in Busan, South Korea. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

This would mark Trump’s first visit to China since returning to office in January 2025.

Before Trump even boards the plane, two developments have altered the landscape. First, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a major part of his emergency-tariff program, restricting the broad tariff authority he had used as a negotiating tool.

Then, a U.S.–Israeli military operation against Iran, which killed the Iranian regime’s supreme leader and disrupted oil shipping routes, triggered a new crisis extending beyond the Middle East. The conflict is already intersecting with the broader strategic competition between Washington and Beijing, as China relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy supplies and has cultivated close ties with Tehran.

Analysts told The Epoch Times that the upcoming summit is no longer just about trade. It also focuses on energy security, supply chains, military signals, and how Washington and Beijing handle risk as global tensions rise.

Trump would head to Beijing with one of his simplest tariff tools weakened, they said. Additionally, the Iran war has exposed several economic vulnerabilities for China, especially its reliance on Middle Eastern energy supplies, the vulnerability of key shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz to disruption, and its dependence on discounted crude imports from sanctioned states—factors that could complicate Beijing’s economic planning and its broader strategic posture.

Xi, meanwhile, would use the meeting to project authority and stability amid military turmoil and economic pressure at home, though not at the cost of appearing weak on tariffs or Taiwan, Su Tzu-yun, director of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told the publication.

Iran War

Before the Iran war, much of the discussion around the summit centered on whether Trump’s tariff leverage had been weakened and whether Xi might use that opening to press for concessions, especially on Taiwan.

The Iran conflict changed that.

The meeting in Beijing will now take place most likely amid an active war in the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli forces have struck thousands of targets in Iran and hold a clear military advantage, while Beijing’s response on behalf of its close strategic partner has been limited to diplomatic statements rather than military action.

That matters because the war has exposed an area where China is particularly vulnerable: energy, Sun Kuo-hsiang, a professor of international affairs at Taiwan’s Nanhua University, told The Epoch Times.

China is the world’s largest oil importer, and it remains dependent on shipping lanes that pass through the Middle East. Research from Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy estimates that about half of China’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.

The same analysis says that about a third of China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports come from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, shipments that also usually transit the strait.

Qatar alone supplies about 28 percent of China’s LNG imports, according to the analysis. But that flow has come under fresh pressure. On March 4, QatarEnergy said it halted LNG production and related products after attacks on facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and later declared force majeure on shipments.

China faces another vulnerability: its reliance on discounted crude from sanctioned states.

Because of U.S. sanctions on Iran, much of Iran’s oil has been sold through opaque channels using shadow shipping, ship-to-ship transfers, and third-country routing. China’s customs data has not shown direct Iranian imports since 2022, but tanker tracking indicates the trade continued.

Using Kpler data, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy estimated that in 2025, China imported roughly 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude and 389,000 bpd from Venezuela. Based on China’s record 11.6 million bpd in total crude imports in 2025, Iranian oil would account for roughly 12 percent of the total.

Sun estimated that a disruption in Iran-related supply would push China’s delivered oil import costs up by 20 to 30 percent.

That poses a clear challenge for Beijing, Sun said. If Iran’s export capacity collapses or tanker insurance and shipping become unavailable, China could lose a steady flow of discounted oil that supports its refiners.

“Put simply, China’s vulnerability is oil and sea lanes access,” he added.

From Trump’s perspective, that creates leverage, said Shen Ming-shih, director at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research.

If a successful U.S. operation in Iran enables Washington, directly or indirectly, to influence Iran’s export routes and nearby sea lanes, including those around the Strait of Hormuz, that could provide the United States with significant leverage on Beijing, Shen told The Epoch Times.

Recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran, both Chinese strategic partners, also send a broader message: The United States can strike far from home and pressure Beijing-aligned states outside East Asia, Shen said.

The Iran conflict is also serving as an informal test of China’s air defenses and electronic warfare capabilities. Chinese-made air defense systems in Iran have come under scrutiny after they failed to prevent U.S. strikes, he noted.

Key Minerals and Components

The Iran conflict also highlights America’s vulnerability, Shen said.

If China is vulnerable to oil and shipping, the United States remains exposed in parts of the high-end defense supply chain, especially key minerals and components, he said.

“The current U.S. military operation in Iran is consuming large quantities of advanced munitions that require critical minerals controlled by China,” he noted, raising a question about who can actually keep production lines running.

China dominates parts of the supply chain for critical minerals used in semiconductors and modern weapon systems such as precision-guided missiles and fighter aircraft, including the F-22 and F-35, U.S.-based economist Davy J. Wong told The Epoch Times.

According to a July 2025 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, for example, China has a near-total monopoly on gallium production, accounting for 98 percent of the world’s supply, and warns of a growing supply crunch that could affect defense production.

Gallium is used in the radar seekers and guidance electronics of many modern missiles.

“The rivalry is not just about tariffs and chips; it is also about industrial endurance,” Shen said. “It is about keeping factories running, producing consumer goods, missile seekers, or the electronics that make advanced weapons work.”

If the United States is burning through expensive interceptors and precision weapons faster than it can replenish them, Beijing may conclude that Washington is limited in its ability to raise pressure in the Indo-Pacific, or at least may be more cautious about opening a second front of escalation on trade, sanctions, or Taiwan amid the Iran war, Shen said.

“That does not mean China gains immediate advantage,” he added. “At present, there is no clear indication that U.S. defense contractors are experiencing shortages of rare-earth materials that would limit production capacity.”

Tariff Issue

The Supreme Court ruling was a setback for Trump, but it did not eliminate all tariffs or trade tools, so the United States retained considerable trade leverage, Wong said.

On Feb. 20, the court struck down most of Trump’s broad “emergency” tariffs, ruling that the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, does not give a president the power to impose sweeping tariffs in the way Trump had tried to use it.

The White House responded quickly. On the same day as the ruling, Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a temporary 10 percent duty on imports. Then on Feb. 21, he raised that temporary duty to 15 percent for all countries.

Trump’s tariff is not off the table, Wong said.

“That matters because Trump’s negotiating style has often been simple and direct: threaten tariffs, push for concessions, and claim a win,” he added. “The ruling did not take tariffs off the table. It just made the easiest route slower and more constrained.”

The administration is now leaning more heavily on other trade tools, including Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which addresses national security risks, and Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which targets unfair trade practices.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Feb. 22 that although “the Supreme Court struck down tariffs under one authority, tariffs under other national security elements remain in place,” and that the administration can launch “additional investigations” that could lead to more tariffs.

However, Wong stated that U.S. policy has not shifted toward easing trade tensions but has instead moved toward developing a new bargaining strategy.

In late 2025, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative launched a Section 301 investigation to determine whether China had been fulfilling its commitments under the Phase One trade deal.

Beijing has answered with warnings. China’s Commerce Ministry said on Feb. 25 it would take “all necessary measures” if Washington used that probe as a pretext for new tariffs.

At the same time, Beijing is signaling that it still wants the Trump–Xi summit and aims to keep overall U.S.–China ties manageable. Lou Qinjian, a spokesman for China’s rubber-stamp National People’s Congress, called leader-level diplomacy “irreplaceable” and pointed to regular communication between the two leaders since last year.

Wong said the message is that the Chinese regime does not want to appear weak, but it also wants to avoid another uncontrolled escalation right before a summit.

Why Xi Needs the Summit to Happen

For Xi, Trump’s visit is useful for reasons that go well beyond diplomacy, Su said.

Xi is dealing with unusual domestic turbulence, he told The Epoch Times. An unprecedented purge within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has shaken the top ranks of the military.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has tallied more than 100 senior PLA officers who have been removed or disappeared since 2022, and even top figures in the Central Military Commission have come under investigation or been expelled.

That points to deep disruption inside the institution meant to guarantee Xi’s authority, Su said. The purge also raises practical questions about military readiness.

CSIS said the leadership gaps created by the purge would make it very difficult for China to launch a major operation against Taiwan in the short term, and that the upheaval has already affected military drills around Taiwan.

China’s economy adds to the pressure. Beijing has set a 2026 growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent, its lowest since 1991, while officials have acknowledged a property slump and broader headwinds.

Given that situation, Su said, Xi is incentivized to pursue a more stable external environment, making the summit important.

“A visit by Trump to Beijing is not just diplomacy for Xi; it is also political theater,“ Su said. ”It allows Xi to project authority, stability, and international stature at a time when all three are under pressure.”

For Trump, there are different ways he can frame the visit, according to Su: “as either a demonstration of dealmaking skills or as an assertion of great-power status diplomacy.”

“Xi can use hosting the summit at home to show that Washington still needs to come to him, on his turf, despite economic challenges, military upheaval, and doubts about PLA readiness,” Su continued. “In that sense, the optics may matter more to Xi than to Trump.”

The Taiwan Issue

Taiwan remains the primary issue, according to Shen.

Trump’s February comment that he had been discussing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with Xi has stirred concern among some Taiwanese lawmakers and experts that cross-strait issues could become a bargaining chip as Washington and Beijing negotiate on trade and security.

“Although the White House later said there is no change to its policy with respect to Taiwan, Beijing’s objective is clear. It wants Washington to reduce visible support for Taiwan and pull back from what it sees as challenging its claims over the island, such as high-level official contacts and military cooperation,” Shen said.

Washington’s incentives are quite clear, he said. Any sign that Trump is trading away U.S. commitments to Taiwan would trigger backlash at home and unsettle U.S. allies in Asia. “And that leaves a narrow and tense path,” he added.

On Feb. 3, Trump signed a sweeping omnibus appropriations bill that includes more than $1.4 billion to support security cooperation with Taiwan.

Those provisions come on top of an arms sale announced last December, which the administration valued at more than $11.1 billion and described at the time as the largest bundled arms sale to Taiwan in U.S. history.

Despite the worries and speculation, U.S. actions suggest otherwise—those arms sales to Taiwan would likely proceed as planned, Shen added.

What Each Side Realistically Wants

Trump will likely push for concrete economic outcomes, Wong said.

“One goal will likely be to extend or reinforce the existing trade truce. Another aims to ensure purchases and market access, including more Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods such as soybeans,” he said.

At the same time, the Trump administration is covering its bases with measures such as Section 301 investigations and other tariff tools that could take time to develop as potential leverage if Beijing fails to follow through on its promises later, he added.

That indicates the White House is pursuing two strategies at once: negotiating with Xi at the leadership level while preparing legal cases for more targeted tariffs later, Wong said.

Su added that another major goal of the Trump administration is to pressure Beijing into further curbing the production and export of fentanyl precursor chemicals, a key Trump policy priority in combating illicit drugs.

Xi’s goals differ, as he seeks validation of his authority and international stature amid domestic turmoil, Su said. He also wants to reduce the risk of sudden tariff hikes, protect Chinese exporters as growth slows, and seek relief from U.S. export controls on advanced chip equipment and other critical technologies.

“Regarding Taiwan, Xi would hope to secure some symbolic commitments,” Shen said. “But those would likely remain symbolic because the United States would not violate the Taiwan Relations Act or the Six Assurances.”

The Taiwan Relations Act was passed by Congress after Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. It manages ongoing relations with Taiwan, including security cooperation, arms sales, trade, and cultural exchanges.

The Six Assurances, first conveyed to Taiwan in the 1980s, include commitments that the United States has not agreed to set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan, will not consult Beijing on those sales, will not mediate between Taipei and Beijing, will not revise the Taiwan Relations Act, has not changed its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty, and will not pressure Taiwan to negotiate with China.

The likeliest outcome, Wong said, is not a fundamental easing of U.S.–China tensions but a temporary effort to manage competition and prevent the relationship from deteriorating further.

Gu Xiaohua contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 19:20

China-Based Copper Scam Leaves Cooling Firm With Fake Metal

Thermal Grizzly CEO Roman “Der8auer” Hartung says his company recently fell victim to large-scale materials fraud while trying to source copper and aluminum for its cooling products, according to PC Gamer. 

The company needs several tons of metal to machine components such as GPU water blocks. With copper prices rising and European supplies expensive, Hartung turned to suppliers in China’s metal market. After reviewing documentation and conducting supplier checks, Thermal Grizzly placed two orders—one for copper and another for aluminum and copper.

Weeks later, pallets of metal arrived in Germany and the firm began its usual quality inspections. An initial X-ray spectroscopy test on a sample suggested the sheets were pure copper. But a conductivity test produced unexpected results. When the team milled the material to investigate further, it produced sparks—something real copper shouldn’t do.

An engineer then tried a magnet, revealing the truth: the “copper” was actually steel coated with copper. In one shipment, a few genuine sheets had been placed on top of a pallet filled with plated steel underneath.

PC Gamer writes that the aluminum order turned out to be fraudulent as well. The top layers of the pallet contained real aluminum sheets, but below them were steel plates and empty space, allowing the shipment to pass a weight check despite being largely fake.

The orders cost about €40,000. While some value can be recovered as scrap metal, the company still faces a significant loss. Legal options are limited because the suppliers are based in China.

Hartung noted that working with Chinese manufacturers is common and the company had carried out multiple checks before ordering. Fraud like this often appears when the price of key industrial materials spikes, creating incentives for suppliers to pass off lower-value metals as genuine products.

Thermal Grizzly ultimately rejected the materials rather than risk its reputation by using them.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 18:55

The App Store Accountability Act Is A Privacy Nightmare Disguised As Child Protection

Authored by Julio Rivera via American Greatness,

Washington has discovered a familiar political trick: wrap a flawed policy in the language of protecting children and hope nobody reads the fine print. The latest example is the App Store Accountability Act, a bill championed by lawmakers who appear eager to regulate the internet without understanding how it actually works.

Supporters insist the legislation will protect kids online. In reality, it risks undermining privacy, violating constitutional protections, and creating a cybersecurity disaster in the process.

And remarkably, Congress is pushing forward with this even though federal courts have already signaled that this exact regulatory model is unconstitutional.

The App Store Accountability Act would require app stores to verify the ages of every user and share age information with app developers. On paper, that sounds straightforward. In practice, it would force companies to collect massive amounts of sensitive personal data simply to download everyday apps.

Want to download a weather app? Verify your age.

Want to install a calculator? Verify your age.

Want to read the news? Verify your age.

The practical result is obvious: app stores would be compelled to gather highly sensitive identity data on tens of millions of Americans and then distribute that information to countless third-party developers.

This could be one of the largest digital identity honeypots ever conceived.

Security experts have been warning about this for months. In fact, 419 cybersecurity and privacy academics from 30 countries recently signed an open letter warning that large-scale age verification systems are “dangerous and socially unacceptable” because they create enormous new attack surfaces for hackers and data thieves.

The logic is simple. If every app download requires age verification, that means sensitive identity data must be stored, transmitted, and accessed across thousands of services. Instead of limiting the spread of personal information, the bill effectively multiplies it.

For cybercriminals, it would be a dream target.

Equally troubling is the bill’s blatant disregard for recent federal court rulings. Lawmakers promoting the legislation often claim that age-verification mandates have already received judicial approval.

That claim collapses under even basic scrutiny.

Just months ago, a federal judge blocked a nearly identical Texas law modeled on the same concept, ruling that it was “exceedingly overbroad” and failed strict constitutional scrutiny.

The court compared the requirement to a government mandate forcing bookstores to check the ID of every customer before allowing them inside. Such a system, the judge explained, would restrict minors from participating in the “democratic exchange of views online.”

In other words, it violates the First Amendment.

Despite that ruling, Congress now appears ready to repeat the same mistake on a national scale.

Supporters of the bill, including lawmakers like Representatives John James (R-MI), Gus Bilirakis (R-FL), and Erin Houchin (R-IN), argue that forcing app stores to verify the age of every user will protect children online. But critics warn the approach risks creating new privacy and security problems while doing little to address the real harms children face on the internet.

Additionally, the proposal ignores the practical realities of how the modern app ecosystem actually functions.

Most apps are not social media platforms. They are mundane tools: banking apps, airline apps, school apps, fitness trackers, weather alerts, home security dashboards, and so forth. The App Store Accountability Act would force age verification for all of them.

Even worse, the bill requires verification across four distinct age brackets: under 13, 13 to 15, 16 to 17, and adults. That may sound bureaucratically tidy, but in the real world, it creates a massive liability problem for app stores.

If a company guesses wrong about whether someone is 12 or 13, it could face penalties from federal regulators. The only way to avoid that risk is to demand hard identification, such as driver’s licenses, credit cards, or even birth certificates to prove parental relationships.

That is the inevitable outcome of the bill’s legal structure.

And millions of Americans do not even possess the required credentials. More than 45 million Americans are either credit unserved or underserved, meaning the law could effectively force them to hand over government IDs simply to download basic apps.

Ironically, many parents do not even support this approach. Surveys show parents overwhelmingly prefer tools that protect children while they use apps rather than a one-time age verification at the app store level.

In other words, the bill creates a massive bureaucracy that fails to solve the problem it claims to address.

More importantly, it distracts from real solutions that actually help protect kids online.

Digital literacy education, stronger parental control tools, and targeted enforcement against platforms that knowingly facilitate exploitation are all more effective approaches. These strategies address harmful behavior without building a nationwide surveillance system for internet users.

The App Store Accountability Act does the opposite. It places the burden on every user, every developer, and every app store while doing little to target the bad actors responsible for real harm.

That is why critics from across the technology and cybersecurity communities are raising alarms. The legislation threatens to create new privacy risks while inviting years of constitutional litigation that will likely end with the law being blocked in court.

If lawmakers truly want to protect children online, they should start by listening to experts instead of rushing through legislation that ignores both legal precedent and technical reality.

Unfortunately, Washington often prefers symbolic victories to workable solutions.

The App Store Accountability Act is a perfect example of what happens when lawmakers regulate technology they clearly do not understand. It risks undermining privacy, weakening cybersecurity, and violating free speech rights all at the same time.

And if Congress insists on passing it anyway, the courts will almost certainly remind them why the Constitution still matters.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 18:30

Coffee King Howard Schultz Flees To Florida Hours After Washington Wealth Tax Passes House

Yet another rich guy is fleeing their Democrat-controlled state over a new wealth tax. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, a huge liberal himself, announced that he's moving from Washington state to Miami, Florida - hours after state lawmakers advanced a tax bill targeting residents earning over $1 million per year. 

Schultz, 72, who bought the company in 1987 and built it into the globally recognized chain it is today, made the announcement in a Tuesday LinkedIn post - writing that he and his wife Sheri were moving to Florida "for our next adventure together." 

"We have moved to Miami for our next adventure together. We are enjoying the sunshine of South Florida and its allure to our kids on the East Coast as they raise families of their own," he wrote. 

Under the new wealth tax, SB 6346, people making over $1 million per year would pay a $9.9% tax on income above that threshold starting in 2029. A final vote could come as early as today in the state Senate, after which it would go to Gov. Bob Ferguson's desk where he says he plans to sign it. 

Schultz's announcement came hours after the Washington state House passed the so-called Millionaire's tax after more than a day of debate. The new wealth tax, which will raise an estimated $4 billion per year, will be used to cut other taxes and expand the Working Families Tax Credit to an estimated 460,000 households (until of course a flood of high-earners leave the state). The measure passed in the Democrat-controlled house by 51-46 after a debate which exceeded 24 hours. 

Schultz, whose net worth is estimated by Forbes a $4.3 billion, went on to praise Pacific Northwesterners who helped build Starbucks into a worldwide brand - saying that it is their "hope that Washington will remain a place for business and entrepreneurship to thrive." 

Of course, he didn't mention that Seattle has become a cesspool, with open-air drug markets and soft-on-crime leadership that's done virtually nothing to stem the homeless crisis and fentanyl epidemic. 

Starbucks headquarters will remain in Seattle, however the company announced earlier this month that it will be expanding its corporate footprint to Nashville, Tennessee as the company moves to expand its presence in the Southeast. Like Florida, Tennessee taxes are far more favorable for rich people, and in many cases, corporations. 

"The Millionaires’ Tax passed by the House represents historic progress in rebalancing our unfair system. It sends significant dollars back to Washington families and small businesses," Gov. Ferguson said on X. 

The Millionaires’ Tax passed by the House represents historic progress in rebalancing our unfair system.

It sends significant dollars back to Washington families and small businesses.

It expands the Working Families Tax Credit to 460,000 additional households – that’s money…

— Governor Bob Ferguson (@GovBobFerguson) March 11, 2026

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 18:05

Ron Paul Fears The Dollar Will Be A Casualty Of The Iran War?

Authored by Ron Paul,

President Trump’s unconstitutional and unjust war against Iran is setting back his “affordability” agenda. The war has caused a big rise in gasoline prices. Among the related concerns is the hindering of the movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the only available passage for ships to transport oil from the Persian Gulf.

The increased costs will do more than raise prices at the pump. An increase in gas prices brings increased transportation costs that will be passed along to consumers. Prices of a variety of goods, including food, will increase.

No wonder Energy Secretary Chris Wright, White House Chief of Staff Susan Wiles, and other Trump administration officials are frantically working to develop policies to lower gas prices. One possibility under consideration is deploying US troops to try to ensure ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This could turn into a permanent deployment of US troops.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the US government is spending about 891.4 million dollars a day on the Iran War. These costs are likely to increase as the war drags on and the US increases its military presence, possibly even putting boots on the ground in Iran.

According to numerous media reports, the Trump administration is preparing a 50 billion dollars “supplemental” funding request for the Iran War. This request will soon be sent to Congress. This funding would be added on top of the defense budget.

The supplemental bill is likely to pass with overwhelming bipartisan support. The Trump administration’s 50 billion dollars price tag is a floor, not a ceiling. Senators and Representatives will seek to add their spending priorities to this “must pass” legislation, while corporate lobbyists are no doubt already preparing “wish lists” to present to lawmakers.

The costs of the Iran War will further increase the already over 38 trillion dollars and rising national debt.

The rate of increases will be greater as long as the government is spending almost a billion dollars a day, or more, on a regime change war in Iran.

The costs of this war will put added pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low and increase its purchase of Treasury bonds in order to monetize the federal debt. The pressure on the Fed will also increase as other countries reduce their purchase of US debt. These reductions will be motivated by concerns over the economic instability caused by the US government’s out of control spending and by resentment over the US government’s hyperinterventionist foreign policy. These factors could also accelerate the increasing rejection of the dollar’s world reserve currency status. A loss of the reserve currency status will cause a dollar crisis, leading to an economic crash worse than the Great Depression.

This crash will likely result in the end of the welfare-warfare-fiat money system. Whether this system is replaced by an even more authoritarian one or by a system of limited government and much more freedom depends on whether those of us who know the truth do our best to spread the message that the key to peace and prosperity is a system of free markets, limited government, individual liberty, and peaceful relations and free trade with all nations.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 17:40

Saudis Eye "Large Order" Of Ukrainian Interceptor Drones As Kill-Cost Missile Crisis Deepens

Saudi Arabia is in discussions with a Ukrainian counter-drone firm to acquire low-cost interceptor drones designed to counter inexpensive IRGC kamikaze drones. The cost-exchange ratio remains highly unfavorable for the U.S. and its Gulf partners, who are using multimillion-dollar interceptor missiles against $20,000 drones. If the conflict drags on for months, the risk of depleting critical interceptor missile stockpiles will become a major problem, not just in the Gulf area but also on the Ukrainian battlefront.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Arabia is preparing to purchase a "large order" of interceptor drones and electronic warfare equipment from Ukraine. This report is based on sources and has yet to be confirmed.

The unfavorable kill-exchange ratio for the Saudis - eliminating a $20,000 IRGC drone with a +$2 million missile - is quickly straining defense budgets and supplies. A cheaper approach is to use Ukrainian interceptors that have been battle-tested in Eastern Europe for several years.

Other Gulf countries, including Qatar, are also examining the use of cheap Ukrainian drones. The U.S. has already deployed Ukraine-tested Merops interceptors to U.S. forces in the Gulf region.

Last week, a Financial Times report stated that U.S. officials were negotiating a purchase of interceptors to counter IRGC drones. This comes as supplies are dwindling and costs are soaring after nearly 12 days of conflict.

"They have missiles for the Patriots, but hundreds or thousands of Shaheds cannot be intercepted with Patriot missiles. It is too costly," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview last week.

Operation Epic Fury has heavily relied on Patriot PAC-3, SM-3 Block IIA, SM-6, and THAAD interceptors, with limited supplies. Lockheed Martin is the top manufacturer of PAC-3 and THAAD missiles, while RTX produces the SM series and Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Heads of U.S. defense firms recently met with President Trump at the White House. The CEOs agreed to quadruple bomb production.

One Ukrainian defense firm, SkyFall, said its P1-SUN interceptor drone has shot down 1,500 Shahed drones and an additional 1,000 unmanned aerial vehicles over the past four months in Eastern Europe. It stated it can produce up to 50,000 interceptor drones per month and export between 5,000 and 10,000 units to the Middle East.

Ukraine has spent the last four years in a hyperdevelopment phase of wartime tech that now appears ready to be exported to the highest bidder, as global conflict spreads to multiple fronts.

Our latest observations:

• AI' Kill Chains' And Rise Of Skynet-Like Weapons Offer Glimpse Of 2030s Battlefield

The Russia-Ukraine war has offered an early look at what 2030s warfare will likely resemble: drones, war bots, AI kill chains, etc. That future has clearly been pulled forward. The more important point now is that this wartime tech is no longer confined to Eastern Europe and is set to spread to Middle Eastern battlefields, where it will be sold to the highest bidder.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 17:15

California Dreamin' Isn't What It Used To Be

Authored by Kenin M. Spivak via RealClearPolitics,

California’s elected Democrats can’t move beyond pandering. Gov. Gavin Newsom is fixated on reparations for African Americans, and the legislature’s Democratic Party majority is once again trying to divide Californians by race, sex, and gender orientation.

In 1996, California stunned the nation when 55% of voters approved Proposition 209, which amended the state’s constitution to prohibit public institutions from considering race, sex or ethnicity in employment, contracting, and education. Ten years later, the United States Supreme Court confirmed its right to do so.

As the state moved further left, in 2019, the Democratic controlled legislature placed Proposition 16 on the ballot to repeal Proposition 209. That effort failed in 2020 when more than 57% of voters rejected it, despite widespread support of elected officials and opponents being outspent nearly 20 to 1.

Undeterred, in 2020, the legislature enacted laws that required California-headquartered public companies to include up to three directors who “self-identify” as women and up to an additional three directors from “underrepresented communities.” In 2022, California state judges enjoined that social engineering for violating due process under California’s constitution. California lost its appeals.

Also in 2020, Newsom signed into law a requirement that the state develop reparations proposals for black Californians. In 2022, he issued an executive order directing all state agencies to reorder their missions and hiring practices “to advance equity” while also establishing a commission to develop policies based on the reparations proposals. Among dozens of preferences, it recommended payments exceeding $1 million for each descendant of slaves, as well as housing assistance, guaranteed wages, racially segregated education, and overturning Proposition 209. Earlier this year, Newsom established a bureau to develop programs to implement the commission’s report.

Inevitably, those programs will violate the California and U.S. constitutions. At a USC Dornsife event last week, a panel of recently retired top Democrat officials acknowledged that the state could not afford reparations and that it would be far more productive for it to focus on improving academic and vocational education.

In 2021, Newsom signed into law AB 101, making California the first state to require ethnic studies for all high school students. The California Department of Education issued a Mathematics Framework that rejected “natural gifts and talents,” called for de-emphasizing calculus, ended classes for gifted children to eliminate “inequity,” and directed teachers to move away from focusing on correct methods or answers. After pushback from parents, the state abandoned the most extreme aspects of the Framework. But AB 101 took effect this school year, requiring a curriculum based on Critical Race Theory, with an emphasis on “equity” and “people of color.”

Following the Newsom commission’s report on reparations in 2023, the California Assembly passed Assembly Constitutional Amendment 7 to indirectly repeal most of Proposition 209 and allocate state funds to so-called marginalized minorities. Last month, the Assembly passed a modified version of ACA-7 that preserves race-based funding, and may still repeal some of the other protections accorded by Proposition 209. The California Senate is now considering that legislation.

If ACA-7 is enacted by the legislature, it will be placed on the ballot in November.

Reparations based on race are unconstitutional. More insidious, compelling middle class and poor families to subsidize affluent students is contrary to the principles of most Americans of every race, gender identification, and economic strata. Countless polls over many years show that Americans overwhelmingly oppose using affirmative action and DEI in hiring, admissions, promotions, and contracting. Only progressive activists believe otherwise.

In a 2016 Gallup poll, a 2019 Pew survey, and a 2021 College Plus survey, about 70% opposed the use of race and ethnicity in admissions decisions, including about two-thirds of Latinos and a majority of blacks. In a January 2024 CRC survey of 1,600 registered voters, 66% disapproved of relying on race, sex, or gender identity for hiring or promotion. The results were similar among men, women, Republicans, Democrats, independents, conservatives, and moderates. Even liberals disapproved by a margin of 54% to 34%.

In a July 2024 survey of 2,100 likely voters by the Manhattan Institute, respondents across the partisan spectrum rejected race-conscious policies. Just 21% (including 36% of Democrats, 35% of Latinos, and 37% of blacks) agreed that “We should focus on creating a race-conscious society to repair the harms of the past by developing policies that benefit marginalized groups.” Majorities across all demographic groups agreed that “We should focus on creating a color-blind society where everyone is treated equally regardless of the color of their skin.”

A survey of 3,262 voters after the last presidential election conducted by Blueprint, a polling organization that helps Democrats, found that 67% of swing voters who chose Trump viewed Democrats as “too focused on identity politics.”

In 1860, there were 395,216 slave owners in the 15 states that permitted slavery and none in the other 18 states. In total, about 5% to 6% of all U.S. households owned slaves. Today, most blacks are at least middle class, live in diverse suburbs, and pursue the same careers as do people of other races.

When California was admitted in 1850, slavery was prohibited. No Californian has ever participated in America’s ugly legacy of slavery – whether as a slave, slave trader, or slave owner. None of their grandparents did. Very few of their great-great-great-grandparents did. More than a quarter of the state’s population is foreign-born. That means California’s elected Democrats are asking recent immigrants to subsidize the children of affluent, educated black Americans.

In a 2019 Associated Press-NORC poll, just 29% of Americans favored the payment of cash reparations to descendants of black slaves. In 2024, a Princeton University-Liberations poll found 36% approval for some form of reparations. A 2022 Rasmussen poll and a 2025 YouGov poll had similar results. Even a quarter of blacks oppose reparations. A search found no polls in which any meaningful percentage of Americans favor reparations to blacks who are not direct descendants of slaves.

Polls aside, the 14th Amendment prohibits governments from allocating benefits based on protected class, most notably race. Eliminating discrimination means eliminating all of it.

With a Republican leading the polls for the next governor of California, and many California Democrats opposed to reparations and racial pandering, more far-left virtue signaling is unlikely to benefit Democratic candidates. DEI and reparations deprive blacks of agency, penalize Americans with no connection to slavery, and represent racial politics at its worst.

Kenin M. Spivak is founder and chairman of SMI Group LLC, an international consulting firm and investment bank. He is the author of fiction and non-fiction books and a frequent speaker and contributor to media, including RealClearPolitics, The American Mind, National Review, television, radio, and podcasts.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 16:50

"Risk Of Attack Is Too High": US Navy Refuses To Provide Escorts To Ships Transiting Hormuz Strait

One week after Trump announced that the US would cover insurance for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and would provide them with US navy escorts, Reuters reports that the US Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since ​the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now.

The U.S. Navy has held regular ⁠briefings with shipping and oil industry counterparts and has said during those briefings it is unable to provide escorts for the time being, three unnamed shipping industry sources told Reuters. They added that the shipping industry has been making requests almost daily during the calls for naval ​escorts through the strait. One of the sources said the Navy’s assessment during Tuesday’s briefing had not changed and that escorts would only be possible once the risk of attack was reduced, which judging by images like the one below of a container ship in the Gulf today won't happen any time soon.

Insane image from the bridge of a container ship arriving at the Port of Salalh in Oman earlier today, as flames engulf multiple port facilities and oil tanks at the MINA Petroleum Facility, resulting from several impacts by one-way attack drones launched by Iran. pic.twitter.com/ePFkxNpOEf

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 11, 2026

The ‌Navy's assessments spell continued disruption to Middle East oil exports and reflect a stark divergence from President Donald Trump’s statements that the U.S. is prepared to provide naval escorts whenever needed to restart regular shipments along the key waterway.

Shipping along the narrow strait has all but halted since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran more than a week ago, preventing exports of around a fifth of the world’s oil supply ​and sending global oil prices surging to highs not seen since 2022. Some ships - mostly Iranian VLCCs and Chinese tankers carrying embargoed products - have resumed transits with Iran vowing it would only attack western-linked ships, we reported earlier.

The status quo may soon change, however: on Tuesday General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that the US military has started looking at options to potentially escort ships through the strait, should it be ‌ordered to do ⁠so. "We're looking at a range of options there," Caine told reporters at the Pentagon.

A U.S. official told Reuters the U.S. military has not yet escorted any commercial ships through the strait. Earlier in the day, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright deleted a post on X in which he said the Navy had successfully escorted one through.

While there have been some voyages through the waterway in recent days, the majority of shipping traffic remains on hold with hundreds of ships ​anchored.

Meanwhile, Trump has said repeatedly in recent days that the United States is prepared to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz when necessary.

"When the time comes, ​the U.S. Navy and its partners will escort tankers through the strait, if needed. I hope it's not going to be needed, but if it's needed, we'll escort them ​right through," he said on Monday during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

For its part, Iran remains adamant: a senior official with Iran's Revolutionary Guards has said the strait is closed and Iran will ​fire on any ship trying to pass, Iranian media reported last week. Several ships have already been hit.

Indeed, earlier in the day, a Thai ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the bulk carrier Mayuree Naree, was struck by projectiles while travelling about 18km north of Oman.

Images released show black smoke coming from a Thai cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz after it was reportedly struck by an Iranian projectile.

Authorities say it is one of three commercial vessels that were targeted on Wednesday, and several crew members are missing. pic.twitter.com/6yL9U2WOw2

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) March 11, 2026

Never afraid of wading neck-deep in irony, just a few hours after photos of the latest ship to be attacked in the SoH circled the globe, Trump said "you can see great safety in the Strait of Hormuz", when asked how he’s going to ensure the safety of oil following through it. 

When asked by a reporter if Iran laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz, “we don’t think so,” President Trump replied, all signs to the contrary. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 16:25

Lame Duck RINO Thom Tillis Blocking Warsh's Fed Confirmation Hearings

Amid escalating U.S.-Israel military strikes against Iran, a separate battle is brewing on Capitol Hill over President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve, according to CNBC.

The key obstacle is Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who announced last year that he would not seek re-election one day after voting against advancing the president's signature legislation, the “Big Beautiful Bill.”

Tillis has pledged to withhold support for any Federal Reserve nominees, including Warsh, until a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s handling of the Federal Reserve’s $2.5 billion renovation is resolved. Powell has denied any wrongdoing.

“No, no,” Tillis reportedly said when asked if Warsh could say anything during their scheduled meeting later that day to shift the senator’s stance on blocking his nomination.

“This is not about people, it’s about process,” the North Carolina Republican added. “I think this is a foul.”

Following the meeting, Tillis told reporters he would vote against advancing Warsh’s nomination out of the Senate Banking Committee if the Powell investigation remains unresolved by then.

“This is about [the] bedrock principle of Fed independence,”Tillis said. “The reason why I came out so strong so early is I believe that we, I, have no earthly idea what the market reaction would have been if suddenly the perception is that the Fed chair serves at the pleasure of the President, right?”

Of course, Tillis is simply shielding Powell - the architect of the everything-bubble and dollar debasement - from a long over due probe into waste and potential perjury. In other words 'you can't fire this guy until you've fully investigated him' - effectively delaying or preventing accountability for Powell in a practical sense while preserving the status quo at the fed. 

Despite Tillis’s opposition to advancing Warsh’s nomination, the senator said he was “impressed” with Warsh, signalling that he would support Trump’s Fed pick if the Powell probe went away.

“I’ve known of his work for quite some time, and that’s why I’m so frustrated that I’m not going to be able to cast a vote until we dispose of the other issues,” Tillis said.

Tillis also took aim at the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, calling it “sophomoric.”

“We had seven members of the Banking Committee who were witnesses at the alleged scene of the crime who said no crime was committed,” the retiring lawmaker said. “Why are we even still having this discussion and holding up a great nominee?” Tillis asked.

“I think it goes back to a young U.S. attorney with a dream, with a bogus basis for an investigation,” he added. “They need to acknowledge that and step away from it so we can get him confirmed.”

“Whoever came up with that idea should be fired, too,” the senator said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 15:45

Iran Formulated Plan To Attack California With Drones In Case Of War: FBI

U.S. law enforcement agencies in California were recently warned that Iran may have explored the possibility of launching drone attacks against targets on the West Coast in retaliation for Operation Epic Fury, according to a federal alert reviewed by ABC News.

The bulletin, circulated by the FBI to police departments in late February, said authorities obtained information indicating that, as of early February 2026, Iran had allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using kamikaze drones launched from an unidentified vessel off the U.S. coast. The potential targets were described only as unspecified locations in California.

"We recently acquired information that as of early February 2026, Iran allegedly aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles from an unidentified vessel off the coast of the United States homeland, specifically against unspecified targets in California, in the event that the US conducted strikes against Iran," the alert said, adding that investigators have "no additional information on the timing, method, target, or perpetrators of this alleged attack."

The warning was issued amid the ongoing US-Israeli military assault against Iran. Tehran has responded with drone strikes against targets across the Middle East, raising concerns among U.S. officials about possible retaliation beyond the region.

A spokesperson for the FBI's Los Angeles field office declined to comment on the alert. The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The question is what exactly was the information obtained in early February that prompted the FBI to release a bulletin by late in the month. 

We should note that on Feb. 3, we highlighted a threat assessment published by the Russian military-focused Telegram channel Rybar, which warned that potential Russian drones in Cuba could put critical oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of America, as well as data centers and military installations across the homeland, within range of these cheap, low-cost kamikaze drones.

Around that same time, we also warned that the explosion in AI data center buildouts would require next-generation counter-drone security, including kinetic interceptors. The Gulf states quickly learned during Iran’s retaliatory strikes that data centers and other civilian infrastructure were very much in play.

Separately, U.S. intelligence officials have also been monitoring the growing use of drones by Mexican drug cartels and the potential for such technology to be used against U.S. personnel along the southern border. A September 2025 intelligence bulletin reviewed by ABC News said an uncorroborated report suggested unidentified cartel leaders had authorized attacks using drones carrying explosives against U.S. law enforcement and military personnel near the border.

The document noted that such an attack inside the United States would be unprecedented, though it described the scenario as plausible. It also cautioned that cartels generally avoid actions that could trigger significant retaliation from U.S. authorities.

John Cohen, an ABC News contributor and former acting undersecretary for intelligence at the Department of Homeland Security, said the possibility of drone-based threats emerging from both the Pacific and Mexico is a growing concern for security officials.

"We know Iran has an extensive presence in Mexico and South America, they have relationships, they have the drones and now they have the incentive to conduct attacks," Cohen said. "The FBI is smart for putting this warning out so that state and locals can be better able to prepare and respond to these types of threats. Information like this is critically important for law enforcement."

The FBI alert did not specify how a vessel carrying attack drones could approach the U.S. mainland without detection. However, intelligence officials have long worried that equipment could be pre-positioned either on land or aboard ships at sea for use in the event of military strikes by the U.S. or Israel against Iran.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 15:45

Vitalik Buterin Envisions 'One-Click' Ether-Staking For Institutions

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said the Ethereum Foundation used simplified distributed validator technology, or “DVT-lite,” to stake 72,000 Ether in February.

“My hope for this project is that in the process, we can make it maximally easy and one-click to do distributed staking for institutions,” said Buterin on X on Monday.

Buterin explained that with DVT-lite, users can “choose which computers run their nodes, make a config file where they all have the same key, and then from there everything gets set up automatically.”

DVT-lite is a simplified form of distributed validator technology tailored for easier deployment, especially in institutional or semi-professional Ethereum staking setups.

In regular solo staking, everything is run on one computer, which can result in “slashing” or penalties if it crashes, gets hacked, or loses internet. Full DVT splits the secret keys across many computers that constantly communicate, which is very secure, but complicated to set up.

DVT-lite uses the same validator key on several computers, so if one computer dies, another quickly takes over, resulting in almost no downtime and very low risk of penalties.

The Ethereum Foundation started its staking program using the technology in late February, and the assets are currently sitting in the validator entry queue waiting to be staked on March 19.

Basic representation of a full DVT setup. Source: Ethereum Foundation

“One-click” staking for institutions

Buterin said that the idea that running infrastructure is this “scary complicated thing” where each person participating must be a professional is “awful and anti-decentralization, and we must attack it directly.”

He added that there should be a “Docker container” or “Nix image” or similar, which has “one click” or command line per node that automates the process of staking.

Buterin said he plans to use DVT-lite soon and hopes more institutions holding ETH can stake in this way.

“We want the authority over staking nodes to be highly distributed, and the first step to doing this is to make it easy.”

In January, he suggested “native DVT” network integration, which would allow stakers to “stake without fully relying on one single node.”

Big demand for staking despite low prices

There is still a huge demand for Ether staking despite its bear market price action.

There are currently 3.2 million ETH in the validator entry queue, with a 55-day wait, and just 29,000 in the exit queue with a 12-hour wait, according to ValidatorQueue.

There are currently 37.5 million ETH staked, worth roughly around $76.5 billion at current prices and representing 31% of the total supply.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 15:30

In Massive News For SAVE Act, Cornyn Flips On Filibuster To Push Through Voter ID

Up until today, establishment poster boy Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) was a chief obstacle to killing the filibuster so that Republicans could pass the SAVE Act, which would require photo ID to be able to vote in US elections. 

Now, Cornyn has suddenly abandoned his sacred cow - which he called the last bastion of "minority rights" and do "whatever changes to Senate rules that may prove necessary for us to get the SAVE America Act and homeland security funding past the Democrats’ obstruction," which also happens to be Trump's top priority. 

In a groveling op-ed in the NY Post, Cornyn declared that "process matters, but outcomes matter more: The Democrats’ assault on election integrity and national security must be stopped," adding that the nation is at a "critical hour" where "old procedures no longer align with the core American principles we must defend."

Translation: His political hide is on the line, and he's willing to torch Senate traditions - which Democrats will shred as soon as they can anyway - to save it.

Cornyn vs. Paxton

Cornyn is also looking for an endorsement from Trump, which would go a long way towards staving off a bruising primary runoff election against Texas AG Ken Paxton set for May 26. That said, a new poll shows that wouldn't matter much.

After Paxton and Cornyn advanced to a runoff last week, Trump finally weighed in on the race, saying he would make an endorsement "soon."

According to the Texas Public Opinion Research poll, that endorsement doesn't close the gap for Cornyn.

Based on those polled, if Trump endorsed Paxton, then 58% of voters said they would vote for Paxton, while just 32% would vote for Cornyn. -Fox4

This isn't Cornyn's first dance with filibuster hypocrisy. As ZeroHedge detailed last October, Senate Republicans, including Cornyn, were already mulling filibuster reforms to end a government shutdown, showing cracks in the so-called "institutionalist" facade. But now, with his back against the wall, the flip is complete as Cornyn faces the fight of his life in the Texas runoff. As we noted after their March 3 primary, Paxton edged out a polling lead, framing the race as a battle between "America First" populism and Cornyn's establishment cronyism. RealClearPolitics averages had Paxton up by 3.8 points pre-primary, and with Trump yet to weigh in, Cornyn's scrambling to prove his loyalty.

Saving the SAVE Act

As we noted yesterday, on Sunday, Trump issued a blunt legislative ultimatum, declaring on Truth Social that he would refuse to sign any bill until the Senate passed the SAVE America Act. "It must be done immediately. It supersedes everything else. MUST GO TO THE FRONT OF THE LINE," Trump posted. The legislation would require physical proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, a photo ID to vote, and would restrict mail-in voting to military personnel and a narrow set of extenuating circumstances.

Democrats in Washington, DC, have blasted the legislation as voter suppression, but a Harvard/Harris poll found that 71% of Americans support the bill, including 69% of independents, and 50% of Democrats. 

Poll after poll shows overwhelming support for voter ID laws across the political spectrum. According to the Pew Research Center, 83% of Americans support voter ID requirements, including large majorities of Democrats, independents, whites, blacks, and Latinos. Gallup reports similar findings, with 84% backing voter ID—98% of Republicans, 84% of independents, and even 67% of Democrats. The same survey found that 83% support requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. Rasmussen Reports puts support at 75%, noting that backing for voter ID has steadily increased over the past decade.

While support for the SAVE Act is bipartisan, Democrats in Congress are rabidly opposed to it. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has repeatedly called the SAVE Act “Jim Crow 2.0,” and made unsubstantiated claims that it would “disenfranchise tens of millions of people.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 15:10

Justice Department Moves Forward With Collection Of Complete Voter Rolls

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Trump administration is using all its legal levers to obtain complete voter rolls, pressing ahead with dozens of lawsuits and investigations in multiple states.

An FBI press office worker approaches the Fulton County Election Hub and Operation Center in Union City, Ga., on Jan. 28, 2026. Arvin Temka/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP

Although some of the lawsuits have been dismissed, criminal proceedings have yielded results. Also, about a dozen states have provided the data voluntarily.

The Department of Justice (DOJ), through its criminal and civil rights divisions, has been reaching out to states since May, requesting voter rolls with complete personal information, mainly driver’s license numbers or the last four digits of Social Security Numbers.

The department said the information is necessary to determine whether states are complying with federal voter roll maintenance laws.

Democratic states have almost uniformly refused to provide the data. Some Republican states also have been wary of submitting the information, usually referring the DOJ to the public version of their voter list with the sensitive information redacted.

The Constitution leaves it up to states to organize their elections, but also grants Congress authority to override state election laws. “The Times, Places, and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations,” reads the Elections Clause.

Congress has passed multiple landmark election bills, including the 1993 National Voter Registration Act and the 2002 Help America Vote Act. Both speak to rules for maintaining voter rolls by removing ineligible individuals, such as those who have moved, died, or do not qualify to vote for other reasons.

President Donald Trump has vowed to strengthen federal election oversight, maintaining that irregularities in the 2020 election cost him victory. His lawyers vigorously and unsuccessfully contested the results.

Trump has been pushing the SAVE America Act, which would require Americans to present proof of citizenship, such as a passport or a birth certificate, for voter registration.

The bill passed the GOP-controlled House in February, but stalled in the Senate, where Republicans lack the votes to overcome the filibuster.

Civil Suits

At least 22 states, plus the District of Columbia (D.C.), have refused to provide the unredacted voter data to the DOJ, usually citing state and federal privacy laws.

Some states have stalled, telling DOJ they needed more time to review the legal implications.

Since September, the department has filed lawsuits against state election officials, trying to compel production of the data. So far, at least 29 states, plus the District, have been sued.

The lawsuits argue that the DOJ has broad authority to request the data under Title III of the Civil Rights Act of 1960.

The law requires states to retain election documents and make them “available for inspection, reproduction, and copying” by the attorney general upon demand.

The department’s lawyers state that courts can’t question what the DOJ needs the data for, as long as the demand provides a reason, which, in this case, is that the department needs to check whether states comply with voter rolls maintenance rules outlined in federal laws.

States have argued that Title III was to prevent racial discrimination, rather than facilitate compliance with voter rolls maintenance. They state that the DOJ needs to provide not just a reason, but also “basis” for its demands—some “specific, articulable facts pointing to the violation of federal law.”

They further raise the issue of privacy laws, both state and federal, precluding them from sharing sensitive personal data.

The DOJ has argued that federal laws trump state laws and federal privacy laws are already satisfied because the department has provided states with the means of transmitting the data securely and will handle it in accordance with existing procedures.

So far, none of the suits have proceeded far enough to grant the department’s request.

Three of the earlier suits, in California, Oregon, and Michigan, have been dismissed by federal judges. The administration has appealed the cases.

Criminal Proceedings

On Jan. 28, the FBI executed a search warrant in the election offices of Fulton County, Georgia, which includes the broader Atlanta area.

Agents seize hundreds of boxes of documents, including physical ballots.

The affidavit supporting the warrant pointed to multiple issues with the 2020 elections in the county, including its two recounts, one by hand and one by machine.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who was responsible for overseeing the election, has dismissed the issues as administrative and human errors that didn’t affect the election outcome.

But the affidavit noted that even if the result wouldn’t change, the issues indicated that crimes may have been committed.

In early March, the FBI obtained a grand jury subpoena to collect election documents pertaining to the Arizona Senate’s 2020 audit of Maricopa County, where nearly two-thirds of Arizonians live.

The large volume of electronic data included ballots and voter records, The Epoch Times reported.

Voluntary Compliance

A dozen states have voluntarily provided the data or indicated they will do so: Alaska, Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wyoming.

Some states, including Florida, Missouri, Montana, Iowa, South Carolina, Alabama, and Idaho, have not provided the data, but have yet to be sued.

There’s no indication that data from North Dakota and North Carolina has been requested by the DOJ.

The department has been offering states a Memorandum of Understanding that outlines the conditions under which the demanded data should be provided. The memorandum would require states to remove ineligible voters within 45 days of being alerted by the DOJ.

Most states have refused to sign it, including some among those that have ultimately shared the data.

Federal laws require, in certain circumstances, that voters be notified before they are removed from the rolls, and for officials to wait two election cycles before removing them. At least 13 Republican states have mentioned the 45-day requirement as an issue of concern.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 14:50

Solid 10Y Auction Sees Jump In Foreign Demand Despite Tail

After yesterday's mediocre 3Y auction, today we had the highlight of the week's coupon issuance when the Treasury sold $39BN in benchmark 10Y paper. And amid a painful selloff that pushed 10Y yields above 4.20%, the auction wasn't too bad all things considered. 

First the ugly: the auction priced at a high yield of 4.217%, up from 4.177% in February and the highest since last August. Why ugle? Because the auction tailed the When Issued 4.210% by 0.7bps, the second tail in a row and 4 of the past 6.

The rest of the auction was more solid, starting with the bid to cover, which jumped from 2.388 to 2.449, if still below the recent six-auction average of 2.51 which however was pulled higher by two outlier high BtCs in recent days.

The internals were also solid: Indirects jumped to 74.45% from 64.54%, which was the highest allotment to foreign buyers since September. And with Directs taking 12.83%, Dealers were left holding just 12.7%, which however was on the high side of the recent auction average of 8.63%.

Overall this was a solid auction, despite the large intraday selloff and despite the tail, and suggests that unlike other asset classes, the bond market is certainly not concerned about runaway cost-push inflation in the months to come.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 14:47

Energy Shock Threatens Fertilizer Supplies As Echoes Of 2022 Food Price Spike Return

The speed of the energy shock is already feeding into agricultural markets, with food inflation risks likely to build as secondary effects ripple through commodity markets following chaos in the Middle East. Soaring input costs, including diesel fuel for tractors and machinery and natural gas as a key fertilizer feedstock, suggest global food prices may be poised for another sharp move higher, echoing the food price spike in the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"The speed of the move [energy shock] pushed volatility sharply higher, with energy once again becoming the primary transmission channel for geopolitical risk into broader macro pricing," UBS analyst Claudio Martucci wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

Claudio pointed out, "Agricultural markets reacted more indirectly to the energy shock via higher fertilizer costs, and higher input and biofuel costs lifted soybean oil to two-year highs, while wheat experienced elevated volatility and some profit-taking late in the week despite an otherwise supportive commodity backdrop."

The energy shock that sent Brent and WTI futures to nearly $120 per barrel early in the week has now subsided, as the IEA and world leaders prepare to release a record amount from strategic petroleum reserves, helping cap energy prices for now, with Brent trading around $92/bbl and WTI around $87/bbl.

But the surge in oil and natural gas prices, as the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint remains heavily disrupted into the 12th day of Operation Epic Fury, will likely feed through broader energy markets and into agriculture, potentially pushing the UN FAO World Food Price Index higher in the coming months if energy prices remain elevated, much as it did after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the first half of 2022.

Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White warned, "But food prices are likely to be as troublesome for second-round inflationary effects. Less well-known is that the shock to food prices was worse than the oil price shocks in the 1970s, after the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution. Food inflation in the US was already rising before both shocks, and contributed more to headline CPI than energy through almost all of the 70s." 

Unbeknownst to some, the Strait of Hormuz region is also a critical maritime route for roughly a third of global fertilizer trade. Security threats remained elevated on Wednesday, with three vessels reportedly hit by IRGC projectiles, insurance costs in some cases rising twelvefold in the recent week, and transit through the waterway remaining partially paralyzed.

Urea prices have already jumped sharply, with broader stress spreading into ammonia, sulphur, and phosphate markets.

Wall Street analysts already warn that the timing is especially bad because many farmers are entering key fertilizer application periods, so any shortage or price spike could hurt crop yields and raise food production costs.

"The timing of the crisis is particularly worrying for the agricultural sector. Farmers in several countries are about to begin applying fertilizer for upcoming crop cycles, meaning any supply shock could directly affect crop yields," said Chris Vlachopoulos from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.

Vlachopoulos said, "The fertilizer market was already under pressure before the Middle East crisis due to gas shortages, export restrictions, and geopolitical tensions affecting key suppliers. The latest conflict could intensify those strains."

"The uncertainty is also rippling across ammonia, sulphur, and phosphates markets, where trade has slowed, prices are firming, and logistical constraints are forcing buyers to seek alternative suppliers while freight costs and shipping risks continue to rise," added Vlachopoulos.

Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners told farm publication Brownfield that the fertilizer price spike may prompt some farmers to reconsider their crop rotations this year. 

Nebraska farmer Clay Govier told the publication that he doesn't expect changing his crop rotation this spring growing season but will reduce his nutrient plan. 

"You can't even buy fertilizer right now and I think that's the bigger concern for this coming crop in terms of what we're going to do for fertility options," Govier said.

Even if the Hormuz chokepoint reopens next week, the restart time for crude and gas plants could take weeks, and potentially even at least a month. This only suggests the fertilizer market will remain tight for some time. All of this is happening at one of the worst possible times, as the Northern Hemisphere spring growing season kicks off in the coming weeks.

Our read is that the key signal to watch is the FAO World Food Price Index relative to Brent crude (or WTI), which increasingly suggests a 2022-echo price spike may be forming. In other words, readers should begin thinking more seriously about what if Jared Cohen, President of Global Affairs and Co-Head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, is right about worst-case spillover risks. 

If that scenario materializes, further disruption across energy markets could quickly amplify the inflationary shock.

It is important to get ahead of the potential chaos that may be approaching if the Hormuz chokepoint remains closed for an extended period, and to start thinking about a backyard garden to weather the storm. And yes, chickens would be a great idea.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 14:30

'Scientists' Dump 65,000 Liters Of Chemicals Into Ocean In Geoengineering Experiment

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a move that’s raising alarm, researchers have poured 65,000 litres of sodium hydroxide into the Gulf of Maine, claiming it’s a step toward combating climate change through geoengineering. 

With unknown effects on marine life, many are worried this experiment reeks of tinkering that could backfire.

The trial, dubbed the LOC-NESS project, took place off the Massachusetts coast last August, with scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution leading the charge. 

Stop this now!!

Every single time arrogant men mess with nature it's a natural disaster

Scientists pump tonnes of chemicals into ocean to stop global warming https://t.co/PXEVDsaug6

— Liz Williams (@Liz4Littletons) March 10, 2026

They argue that boosting ocean alkalinity could suck more CO2 from the atmosphere, turning it into harmless baking soda. 

Yet, as globalist agendas push these unproven fixes, freedom-loving skeptics see it as another layer of control over nature without public consent.

Over four days, the team added the alkaline chemical, tagged with red dye for tracking, to waters 50 miles off Boston. “These early results demonstrate that small-scale OAE deployments can be engineered, tracked, and monitored with high precision,” said principal investigator Adam Subhas of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. “We need independent, transparent research to determine which solutions might work.”

The method, known as Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE), aims to mimic and accelerate the ocean’s natural CO2 absorption.

As the document details, the oceans already trap around 38,000 billion tonnes of CO2 as dissolved sodium bicarbonate. By resetting the pH with sodium hydroxide, the scientists boosted it from 7.95 to 8.3—matching pre-industrial levels—and measured 10 tonnes of carbon entering the water immediately.

In the best-case scenario, they estimate the dump could absorb about 50 tonnes of carbon over a year, equivalent to the yearly emissions of five average citizens. 

But that’s a drop in the bucket compared to industrial outputs, and it doesn’t address the hypocrisy of governments preaching emission cuts while funding these chemical interventions.

Critics aren’t buying the hype. Gareth Cunningham, Director of Conservation and Policy at the Marine Conservation Society, told the Daily Mail: “These approaches are resource-intensive and their ecological impacts are still poorly understood.” He added: “Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement is a short-term fix that doesn’t address the behaviours driving climate change and ocean acidification.”

The experiment found no negative impacts on plankton, fish, and lobster larvae, according to PhD student Rachel Davitt from Rutgers University, who helped lead the ecological assessment: “Based on the biological and ecological impact data that we have collected and analysed so far, there was no significant impact of the LOC-NESS field trial on the biological community using the metrics we measured.” But effects on adult fish weren’t even assessed, leaving a glaring gap in a region vital for lobster, cod, and haddock fishing.

This isn’t the first time alkalinity tweaks have been tried—Scandinavian rivers got limed in the 1980s to combat acid rain, reviving salmon populations. Yet scaling OAE up would mean dumping billions of tonnes of chemicals annually, releasing trace metals that could poison ecosystems. 

Recent studies warn of risks to species growth, metabolism, and biodiversity, while excessive alkalinity might harm seagrasses crucial for marine habitats.

This ocean dump comes amid growing resistance to geoengineering schemes that smack of playing God with the planet. 

As we previously covered, a U.S. bill introduced last month aims to outright ban geoengineering activities nationwide. H.R. 7452, sponsored by Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL), would criminalize atmospheric dispersal of chemicals or biological agents for weather modification, including geoengineering, cloud seeding, and solar radiation management.

That legislation defines weather modification broadly as “any injection, release, emission, or dispersal of a chemical substance, a biological agent, or an air pollutant… into the atmosphere” that alters weather, climate, or sunlight. Violators could face up to $100,000 fines and five years in prison per offense. It even repeals existing federal authorities for such programs and bans federally funded research into them.

The bill’s backers point to covert operations already underway, as a 2023 White House report admitted the U.S. “conducts or funds limited research into solar radiation modification.” With commercial jets contributing to lingering contrails that form cloud cover—per FAA, NASA, and NOAA admissions—the push for bans highlights how these experiments evade accountability.

Critics of OAE echo the bill’s concerns: it doesn’t solve emissions but adds residues that could devastate marine life. As Cunningham noted, restoring natural habitats like seagrass and shellfish reefs offers a “more sustainable solution by helping buffer acidification while improving water quality, protecting coastlines and supporting marine life.”

Broader geoengineering strategies, from afforestation in deserts to artificial ocean upwelling and iron fertilization, carry their own drawbacks—like unintended warming or rapid climate shifts if halted. 

Solar radiation management via sulphate aerosols could cool the planet but lets CO2 build up unchecked.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 14:00

President Of Iran Demands "Reparations" As Trump Says War To End 'Soon' As 'Practically Nothing Left' To Target

 Top headlines of conflict 

• President of Iran demands reparations and guarantees against future aggression.

• Trump says the war with Iran will end soon, as there is 'practically nothing left to target." 

• Yet U.S. and Israeli officials plan at least two more weeks of strikes

• U.S. forces destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz

• Iran's drone production has been significantly degraded.

• The IEA is preparing its largest-ever emergency crude oil release to counter surging Brent and WTI prices.

• Casualty estimates: over 1,200 killed in Iran from U.S./Israeli strikes (plus civilian reports), 13 deaths in Israel from Iranian retaliation, and 140 U.S. service members wounded (mostly minor).

*  *  *

Update (1012ET): The President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, says he has spoken with the leaders of Russia and Pakistan, to whom he "reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region."

According to Pezeshkian, the only way to end the war is "recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int'l guarantees against future aggression."

Talking to leaders of Russia and Pakistan, I reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to peace in the region. The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime & US—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int'l guarantees against future aggression.

— Masoud Pezeshkian (@drpezeshkian) March 11, 2026

Other notable headlines of the day: 

*Overnight: Hegseth proclaiming the day saw "most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes" of the war yet - sending prices higher

IEA MEMBERS AGREE OIL STOCKPILE RELEASE OF 400M BARRELS - quick dip and then rip higher in oil prices

*TRUMP: US TOOK OUT JUST ABOUT ALL OF IRAN'S MINE SHIPS - oil reversed lower

*TRUMP: OIL COMPANIES SHOULD USE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - extended drop

*TRUMP PROMISES 'GREAT SAFETY' FOR OIL TANKERS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ - further drop

*   *   *

Update (1012ET): President Trump on Wednesday said that the war with Iran will end "soon" because there is "practically nothing left to target."

"Little this and that... Any time I want it to end, it will end," Trump told Axios during a five-minute phone call, adding "The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period." 

"They were after the rest of the Middle East. They are paying for 47 years of death and destruction they caused. This is payback. They will not get off that easy," Trump said. 

So, Mission Almost Accomplished™ after the Trump administration has given estimates ranging from weeks to months for how long this might take.

Yet while Trump is signaling that the operation has largely accomplished its objectives, US and Israeli officials say there's been no indication of when fighting might stop. As Axios notes further, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday that fighting will continue "without any time limit, for as long as necessary, until we achieve all the objectives and decisively win the campaign." Meanwhile, Israeli and US officials say they're preparing for at least two more weeks of strikes in Iran. 

*  *  *

Update (0930ET):

The most significant development in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday was the start of IRGC naval mining operations, which were met with massive U.S. firepower that destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels. As we continue monitoring the maritime chokepoint this morning after IRGC attacks on three commercial vessels, attention is now shifting to the IRGC's drone production capacity, which appears to have been degraded.

Bloomberg reports that 2,100 Shaheds have been fired so far in the 12-day conflict. U.S. forces struck IRGC production facilities, disrupting large-scale manufacturing. The report is based on comments from a senior European official.

"Since the Houthis have produced UAVs under bombardment, one would think the Iranians can, albeit not at the same rates, since facilities have to be dispersed and makeshift workshops used," Sid Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, told the outlet.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that Saudi Arabia's kill-cost ratio, neutralizing $20,000 IRGC drones with $2 million-plus missiles, has spurred talks with a Ukrainian counter-drone company for cheap interceptor drones.

*  *  * 

America-Israel's Operation Epic Fury entered its 12th day, with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicating that the most intense phase of U.S. strikes is expected on Wednesday. Tehran responded with retaliatory strikes against Gulf neighbors, as Goldman's foreign affairs chief warned of a growing risk of regional spillover (read here). Overnight, market attention centered on energy, with the IEA reportedly proposing its largest-ever emergency crude release to combat Brent and WTI prices, which have reached triple-digit territory. 

"The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes. Intelligence more refined and better than ever. So that's on one hand," Hegseth said. "On the other hand, the last 24 hours have seen Iran fire the lowest number of missiles they've been capable of firing yet."

Around 0900 ET, the IEA is expected to announce plans for a massive crude release into the market to cap Brent and WTI prices, which surged near $120 per barrel at the start of the week. In a note to premium subscribers, we outlined several problems that could arise and why any such release would only offer temporary relief.

Read the note:

• IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Stockpile Release... There Is Just One Big Problem

Beyond the panic among G-7 leaders and the IEA over crude prices, the Trump administration has also pushed its own headlines on Tuesday in an effort to jawbone energy prices lower, as we explained here.

Jawboning headlines from G-7 and the Trump administration on Tuesday were shortly followed by headlines that Iran had begun mining the Strait of Hormuz. That came after President Trump warned Tehran not to "put out any mines" in the narrow waterway. Shortly afterward, the U.S. military said 16 Iranian mine-laying naval vessels had been eliminated. 

Overnight reports described heavy U.S. and Israeli strikes on IRGC targets, with damage reported to oil facilities, civilian sites, and a hospital in Bushehr taken out of service. Iran has claimed that nearly 10,000 sites have been hit overall.

There are currently no signs of de-escalation from either side, with IRGC spokesman Ebrahim Zolfighari warning the Trump administration at the start of the week: "If they can afford the price of oil at $200 per barrel, let them keep playing this game."

The latest casualty report states that more than 1,200 people have been killed by U.S. and Israeli strikes in Iran, according to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, and 13 have died in Israel as Iran retaliated with missiles and drones.

Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said that 140 U.S. service members have been wounded in the conflict so far.

"The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and 108 service members have already returned to duty," Parnell said. "Eight service members remain listed as severely injured and are receiving the highest level of medical care."

The latest and most critical overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Military Attacks

• The US and Israel are conducting strikes against Iran, hitting thousands of targets across the country and degrading missile launchers and command networks

• B-52 bombers have been used to strike Iranian ballistic missile and command-and-control sites

• More than 1,000 civilians have been killed according to a preliminary count by Human Rights Activists News Agency

• Israel struck Iranian drone launch squads, though the White House cannot confirm reports of 150 US troops injured

• A drone strike in Iraq's Kurdistan region killed a member of an Iranian Kurdish armed opposition group, with the group blaming Iran for the attack

Regional Impact

• The UAE's air defenses are intercepting missile and drone attacks from Iran, with loud bangs heard in Dubai

• Two drones fell near Dubai International Airport, injuring four people including two Ghanaian nationals and one Bangladeshi national

• Turkish President Erdogan warned the war must be stopped before it engulfs the region in flames

• The UAE President wrote a patriotic poem performed by the national orchestra honoring those protecting the nation

Energy Market

• The International Energy Agency is considering releasing emergency oil reserves of 300-400 million barrels, potentially the largest in its history

• The IEA is recommending a release of oil from strategic reserves exceeding 100 million barrels over the first month, according to sources

• Brent crude futures rose 5% to $92.47 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate climbed 5.8% to $88.27 early Wednesday

• Wood Mackenzie consultancy warns of oil prices potentially reaching $150+ per barrel due to the supply shock

• Brent crude briefly surged to $119.5 per barrel late Sunday in one of the most dramatic spikes in recent oil-market history

Strait of Hormuz

• President Trump threatened Iran in a Truth Social post with "military consequences" at a level "never seen before" if they were to place mines in the Strait.

• Iran unleashes naval mines across the critical waterway, followed by US military announcing 16 IRGC mine-laying ships in the area were "eliminated"

• Reuters says the US naval fleet is not ready for convoys through Strait

• US Secretary Wright deleted the tweet on US Navy escorted oil tanker through Strait - WH says premature

• IRGC Commander slams Wright for fake news

• Three vessels hit by projectiles in Strait of Hormuz

Diplomatic Developments 

• Russia is constantly in touch with Iranian leadership and willing to contribute to efforts to stabilize the region, according to the Kremlin

• Russian media argues that negotiations with the US always end with missiles hitting capitals, questioning Trump's peace deal efforts

• President Trump warned Iran against laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening military consequences at a level never seen before

Top stories by outlet:

• Pipelines by-passing Strait of Hormuz (WSJ)

• IEA proposes record release from strategic oil reserves (WSJ)

• IEA proposes release of 300-400 million barrels (Bloomberg)

• United States not ready for convoys through Strait (Reuters)

• China's oil refiners relatively insulated from war (Bloomberg)

• Qatar's LNG shutdown tightens global gas supply (Bloomberg)

• UAE shuts down refinery after damage from drone (Reuters)

• ADNOC presses oil partners to transit the Strait (Bloomberg)

• Pakistan reiterates support for Saudi Arabia (Bloomberg)

• U.S. diesel prices in record weekly increase (WSJ)

• Iran war and shadowy short wave broadcasts (FT)

• Europe's shift from nuclear was "strategic mistake" (Reuters)

• Israeli intelligence assessment indicates Iran’s new supreme leader was wounded at the start of the war (AP News) 

Polymarket odds for a US-Iran ceasefire are sliding:

Commenting on energy markets, UBS analyst Nana Antiedu cited Henri Patricot's note on three scenarios in the conflict and potential oil/gas implications:

If there is a quick de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict by mid-March with no damage to critical oil infrastructure and flows via Hormuz resume, Henri Patricot sees Brent averaging $80/bbl in March, before dropping to the mid-$70s.

TTF gas prices would hold €50/MWh, before falling to the high-€30s in 2Q26. In the case where Hormuz disruptions persist for a month, both oil and gas markets would further tighten, increasing the pace of inventory drawdowns and supply shut from GCC countries.

Here, he expects oil prices to rise above $100/bbl in the second half of March, averaging $100/bbl in March and $78/bbl for 1Q26, before coming down to $90/bbl in 2Q26 as disruptions ease.

For gas, LNG supply would be reduced for longer, requiring more demand reduction, especially as spare capacity and storage are limited.

He would expect TTF to rise towards €80/MWh by end-March, averaging €65/MWh in March and €46/bbl for 1Q26, before coming down to €50/MWh in 2Q26.

In the final scenario, where there is extended disruption (longer than a month), Brent prices could average $110/bbl in March and might climb towards $150+ by 2Q26. On the gas side, TTF could average €73/MWh in March and rise to €80/MWh in 2Q26.

What's clear is that the Middle East conflict has sent macroeconomic uncertainty soaring across the world, despite the White House saying the surge in energy prices is temporary.

The big headline this morning will be around 0900 ET from the IEA on crude inventory releases.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 10:12

US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years (Before Iran-Triggered Oil Spike)

While all attention is currently on Iran (and the energy impact of actions overseas), today's CPI (for February) should not be affected by the recent surge in WTI (but March's data definitely will be)...

Source: Bloomberg

Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM (as expected), lifting prices by 2.4% YoY (unchanged from the prior month at the lowest since May 2025)...

Source: Bloomberg

The disinflation trend is still your friend as the terrors of tariff-flation remain non-evident, much to the disappointment of establishment economists.

Core Services remain the biggest driver of CPI with Core Goods relatvely unmoved (and Energy starting to pick up)...

CPI rose 0.3% MoM after rising 0.2% MoM in January, and in line with estimates. Over the last 12 months, CPI rose 2.4%, also in line with estimates and unchanged from January.

• The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in February and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.4% over the month as did the food at home index, while the food away from home index rose 0.3% . The index for energy also increased in February, rising 0.6 percent.

Core CPI also met expectations with a +0.2% MoM move, leaving prices up 2.45% YoY - the lowest since March 2021

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI Services are also the main driver of Core CPI (but are seeing significant disinflation)...

Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM in February; Over the last 12 months, core CPI rose 2.5%, also in line with estimates and unchanged from January.

• Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, apparel, household furnishings and operations, airline fares, and education. Conversely, the indexes for communication, used cars and trucks, motor vehicle insurance, and personal care were among the major indexes that decreased in February.

• The energy index increased 0.5% for the 12 months ending February. The food index increased 3.1% over the last year.

Some more details on the core print

• The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in February, following a 0.3% increase in January.

  • The shelter index increased 0.2% over the month as did the owners’ equivalent rent index.

  • The index for rent increased 0.1% in February, the smallest 1-month increase in that index since January 2021.

• The lodging away from home index rose 1.0% over the month. The medical care index increased 0.5% in February, after rising 0.3% in January.

• The index for hospital services increased 0.6% over the month and the index for physicians’ services rose 0.3%.

  • Conversely, the prescription drugs index decreased 0.2% in February

• The index for apparel increased 1.3% over the month, after rising 0.3% in January. The household furnishings and operations index rose 0.3% in February and the airline fares index rose 1.4%.

• The index for education rose 0.2% over the month.

• The new vehicles index was unchanged in February.

• The communication index declined 0.5% in February and the used cars and trucks index decreased 0.4% over the month.

• The index for motor vehicle insurance decreased 0.3% in February and the index for personal care fell 0.2%

SuperCore CPI (Services ex-Shelter) lifted very modestly on a YoY basis with Medical Care Services the biggest driver...

While typically, a hot (or cold) CPI would drive stocks and bonds dramatically, we remain beholden to the slings and arrows of outrageous crude oil price fortune (for now) with rate-cut odds remaining near recent (hawkish) cycle lows.

Interestingly Fuel Oil costs soared MoM...

Both Goods and Services costs are signaling disinflation (ahead of March's potentially explosive moves)...

The question is - how long will the impact of soaring energy costs impact CPI?

Is it different this time?

The policy sensitive two-year yield was around 1.5 basis points higher at 3.605% after the report, while swaps linked to Fed meeting dates implied traders see 34 basis points of easing this year, versus around 35 basis points earlier in the session. The market continues to price the first full quarter-point reduction arriving in September or October.

Longer-dated Treasuries were under more pressure, with the yield on 10-year notes two basis points higher at 4.18%. Later in New York, Treasury will sell $39 billion of the current 10-year issue.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 08:39

Stocks Drop As Oil Rebounds Over $90 On Escalating War, Ignoring Looming SPR Release

US equity futures remain extremely illiquid, jittery and volatile, and are down 10bps near the morning lows, erasing a 0.5% gain after earlier rebounding on hopes the upcoming SPR release will keep oil lower (it has so far failed to do that). Global equities saw a leg lower during APAC hours following an FT report that JPMorgan is marking down private credit portfolios. Mixed messaging from the Trump administration has helped fuel sharp swings in volatility gauges, with the VVIX jumping 10 points on Tuesday. As of 8:10am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1%, as Oracle’s 10% climb in the pre-market offers support to the AI trade, while inflation is back in focus with today’s CPI print. The ORCL print supports optimism across the secular AI data center trade with focus on raised FY27 rev guidance on management's expectations for continued expansion in AI and advanced compute demand. Asia is leading overseas with TWSE up 410bps, NKY up 143bps, Europe flat to lower led on the downside by Germany down 67bps. In commodities, crude up 300bps feels like a non-event vs. intra day swings over the last seven trading days. Oil does, however, remain in focus as strikes continued across the Middle East overnight, with the UK Navy noting three vessels were hit in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. The IEA is proposing a record release of up to 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves — more than double the amount deployed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as explained here, it is unlikely the release will do much for a sustained drop in prices. Moves elsewhere in commodities benign. Yields elevated ahead of CPI with 10-year at 4.17%, dollar bid back with DXY at $99 and Bitcoin lower down 1% just below $70k. German CPI in line at +1.9%. We’ll get US CPI at 8:30am ET this morning.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mixed (Alphabet -0.1%, Amazon +0.1%, Meta -0.01%, Nvidia +0.2%, Apple +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%). Tesla rises 0.2% after Business Insider reported that the company is ramping up an AI agent project

• AeroVironment (AVAV) falls 10% after the drone maker cut its revenue guidance for the full year. Analysts trim their price targets, while Citizens noted that some of the weakness stems from defense deals getting delayed.
• Campbell’s Co. (CPB) falls 5% after the food company cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• Domo (DOMO) rises 38% after the enterprise software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations.
• Nike (NKE) gains 2% after Barclays upgraded the sportswear retailer to overweight, citing recent operational progress, financial inflections and management’s disciplined actions.
• Oracle (ORCL) rises 9% after the company posted strong results and gave an outlook that suggested there is little letup in demand for AI computing.
• Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) climbs 12% after the developer of AI-powered delivery robots posted fourth quarter results. Also, the company and White Castle launched a delivery pact via Uber Eats.
• UniFirst Corp. (UNF) rises 8% after Cintas Corp. agreed to buy the uniform maker in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $5.5 billion
• Upstart (UPST) rises 2% as the firm plans to apply for a US national bank charter, aiming to reduce costs and streamline its AI-based lending platform

In other AI news, the Chinese government moved to curb the usage of OpenClaw for banks and state agencies amid a user rush to adopt the AI agent. Amazon is making its debut in the euro bond market with a record eight-part sale, with maturities ranging from two to 38 years, following the 11-part dollar sale on Tuesday to fund AI investments. Elsewhere, Nintendo surged due to the surprise success of its new Pokémon game. 

US futures are struggling for direction and Brent climbed back above $90 a barrel as an expected record release of crude stockpiles failed to lift sentiment amid attacks on vessels in the Middle East, simply because it will do little to offset the daily supply taken out by the Strait blockade. Volatility continued to grip equities, with S&P 500 contracts erasing a 0.5% advance, and it's nowhere near over: equities are “set for days of upcoming volatility, as the conflict in the Middle East is far from being resolved,” according to Roland Kaloyan, head of European equity strategy at Societe Generale adding that “Moving forward, there are high chances of seeing alternating risk‑on and risk‑off days.” The “markets’ starting point from when the conflict began was quite high so it’s also some excess optimism being cut to risk premiums which appears closer to what we perceive as the fundamentals.”

Sentiment was also dented as JPMorgan restricted some lending to private credit funds after marking down the value of certain loans in their portfolios, the latest sign of stress in the $1.8 trillion industry.

As the Iranian conflict rages on with no sign of de-escalation, the UK Navy said three ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. Governments are seeking to contain the spike in energy prices, with the International Energy Agency proposing a release of emergency oil reserves of as much as 400 million barrels, according to a person familiar.

“It’s helpful, but it’s more a short-term fix,” said Richard Saldanha, global equity fund manager at Aviva Investors. “The reality is, the way we’re going to avoid any kind of long-term shock is the Strait of Hormuz re-opening again.”

In the latest oil news, the IEA will propose the biggest-ever release of oil reserves. The potential 400 million barrels would cover days of global demand. OPEC’s monthly deep-dive analysis on the global crude market will likely draw more attention than usual.  

The US CPI print will be closely watched as stagflation concerns resurface. Bloomberg Chief US Economist Anna Wong expects the reading to be “unseasonally tame,” citing disinflationary effects from several heavily weighted components, while two new supply shocks - in metals and memory chips - were building pre-Iran. Derivatives strategists at Barclays say the S&P 500’s implied move for Wednesday is materially higher than recent history with the forward volatility term structure having shifted higher amid market stress. 

The consumer price index report is projected to show a core inflation measure, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rising 0.2% last month. That would suggest some easing in price pressures before the outbreak of the war. Money markets are leaning toward a Federal Reserve rate cut in July and the possibility of a second move in December.

“Even with geopolitics in the foreground, investors still want CPI to validate the ‘disinflation-with-room-for-cuts’ narrative rather than re‑ignite a sticky‑inflation scare,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg.

Inflation expectations are building in international markets with European assets facing challenges because cost pressures concerns have soared rapidly, and an ECB rate hike is potentially closer than thought, according to Governing Council member Peter Kazimir. 

The Stoxx 600 fell 0.4% to 603.44 with 417 members down, 171 up. The upside in energy prices and mounting bets that the ECB will hike rates have knocked European stocks lower with the Stoxx 600 down 0.8%, although off the lows of the day as oil trimmed gains; retail and automotive stocks outperforming, while industrial goods and real estate underperforming.  Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Balfour Beatty shares surge as much 13% to a record high after the construction group announced better profits and a larger buyback than expected
• Inditex shares gain 5.2%, outperforming European peers, after the Zara parent reported strong results for 2025 and gave a trading update for 1Q that analysts called “reassuring.” Shares are 2.8% lower YTD
• Orlen gains as much as 4.2% to the highest since Nov. 2017 after PKO and Santander both raised the Polish energy group to buy, expecting higher refining and gas margins from disruptions in the Middle East
• Avolta shares climb as much as 4.6% after the travel retailer reported solid results, announced a buyback and confirmed its 2026 outlook, despite uncertainty caused by conflict in the Middle East
• Wacker Chemie shares rise as much as 10% after the German chemicals firm posted better-than-expected guidance for 2026 on the back of its semiconductor polysilicon unit and cost savings
• Elis shares rise as much as 7.7%, the biggest jump in 11 months, after the workwear specialist delivered in-line results and outlined a bigger buyback for this year than expected
• CVC Capital shares fall as much as 7.4% to a new low as the private equity and investment advisory company cuts guidance for performance-related earnings again
• Legal & General shares fall as much as 6.2%, the most in 11 months, as the insurer and asset manager’s solvency ratio, an indication of financial strength, proves lower than expected
• Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 6.3% after the German defense company’s sales outlook fell short of analyst expectations. Oddo BHF says the print is slightly disappointing when it comes both to results and 2026 guidance
• Canal+ shares drop as much as 21%, the sharpest fall on record, as challenges at newly-acquired MultiChoice Group weigh on sentiment and detract from positive trends in the rest of the business
• Galenica shares fall as much as 5.3% after UBS lowers earnings per share expectations for the Swiss pharmacy operator through 2028, citing a weak flu season and the strong franc
• BW LPG falls as much as 10%, the most in almost nine months, after DNB Carnegie gives the maritime gas transportation company its only sell rating and sets a new Street-low PT to reflect an uncertain near-term outlook

Earlier, Asian stocks - which are now due for a painful catch down - rose as oil prices cooled, easing concerns about a major inflation shock for the region’s energy-import-dependent economies. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 2%, adding to Tuesday’s 3.2% advance. Shares of chip giants such as TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix were among the biggest contributors to the rally after better-than-expected earnings from Oracle Corp., which pushed the cloud infrastructure company’s stock up nearly 10% in extended US trading. Oil climbed back near $90 a barrel after the close of trading in several Asian markets, paring the previous session’s 11% plunge, as vessels in the Middle East came under fire amid ongoing military strikes. Volatility across financial markets continued to be high as mixed messages from the Trump administration over the war in Iran kept investors on edge.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index faded losses as the risk tone deteriorated and is now flat. Aussie dollar is the clear outperformer across the majors as traders expect the RBA to deliver another rate hike next week.

In rates, treasury yields nudged higher ahead of the February inflation print; long-end yields are about 2bps higher as oil advance weighs globally. US front-end yields are little changed, slightly extending Tuesday’s curve-steepening move; 10-year near 4.17% is higher by less than 2bps with German and UK counterparts cheaper by 5bp and 7bp. European bonds plunged as a central bank official warned the Iranian war could force an earlier-than-expected interest-rate hike. Front-end bonds in Europe remain under pressure with German and UK two-year yields adding 8bps and 10bps respectively.  Focal points of US session include February CPI report and $39 billion 10-year auction. Corporate new-issue slate may include Salesforce with a jumbo offering following Tuesday’s single-day volume record.

In commodities, brent crude futures are up 3.4% and largely shrugging off news that the IEA has proposed a 300-400 million barrel reserve release.  Spot gold is flat, while silver declines 1.8%. Bitcoin is down 1%. 

US economic data slate includes February CPI (8:30am) and federal budget balance (2pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%,
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1%,
• DAX -1.6%,
• CAC 40 -1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.17%
• VIX +0.8 points at 25.73
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1200.97,
• euro -0.1% at $1.1596
• WTI crude +5.2% at $87.79/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue. The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days. CNN
• The IEA is proposing a record release of up to 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves — more than double the amount deployed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a person familiar said. Japan is set to release oil reserves by itself as early as Monday, NHK reported, citing PM Sanae Takaichi. BBG
• The Trump administration believes it can withstand a brief spike in oil prices — for as many as four weeks, as one person close to the White House suggested — before the political hit does lasting damage. Politico
• JPMorgan Chase has clamped down on its lending to private credit groups, with bankers looking to cut risks as concerns mount over the credit quality of companies in their stables.
• Global bonds face more declines as traders bet inflation fallout from the Iran war will push central banks to raise rates. Markets are pricing two hikes in Australia and see the BOJ and ECB among candidates to also tighten. BBG
• Lebanon's Hezbollah is applying lessons from its last war with Israel as it braces for a possible full-scale Israeli invasion and protracted conflict, returning to its roots in guerrilla warfare in south Lebanon, four Lebanese sources said. RTRS
• The UK Navy said three vessels were hit in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. BBG
• China moved to restrict government agencies and state firms from running OpenClaw AI apps on office computers. BBG
• ECB’s Christine Lagarde said policy makers will ensure the Iran war doesn’t cause the same inflation surge as Russia’s Ukraine invasion did. BBG
• Senators Warner (D) and Rounds (R) are to introduce new legislation focused on AI and the workforce: Axios
• CPI Preview from Goldman: Expect a 0.17% increase in February core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.42% (vs. +2.5% consensus). Expect a 0.18% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), reflecting higher food (+0.1%) and energy (+0.5%) prices. GS forecast is consistent with a 0.24% increase in core PCE in February. 

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher as the recent easing of oil prices helped the region shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall Street and reports of Iran beginning to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. ASX 200 gained with strength in mining, resources, materials and financials, front-running the advances, but with upside capped amid increased bets for the RBA to hike rates at next week's meeting following recent central bank rhetoric and calls by some of Australia's largest banks for consecutive rate increases in March and May. Nikkei 225 rallied following the recent easing of oil price pressures and as softer-than-expected PPI data, which showed a surprise monthly deflation,  supports the case for a delay in BoJ policy normalisation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged amid quiet catalysts and with Chinese officials said to be frustrated by what they see as insufficient US preparation for the Trump-Xi summit later this month, while China also moved to curb the use of OpenClaw AI by banks and state agencies.

Top Asian News

• Japan's government is considering measures amid Middle East tensions and will announce gas and utility price measures at an appropriate time, according to Nikkei.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.0%) are entirely in the red, as the Iran conflict intensifies. Losses in the IBEX 35 (-0.4%) have been limited after positive Inditex (+0.8%) earnings, which beat Q4 EBIT estimates and boosted capex following a strong start to 2026. The DAX 40 (-1.2%) underperforms  after Rheinmetall (-6.2%) missed FY net income and guided softer 2026 revenue than analysts expected. European sectors are broadly weaker across the board, as Energy (+0.3%) continues to gain. Real Estate (-1.3%) and Financial Services (-1.3%), alongside Industrial Goods and Services (-1.8%), sit at the bottom of the pile, with higher yields and risk tone weighing on the sectors.

Top European News

• European Commission draft Citizens' Energy Package recommends concrete measures to lower household energy prices, Handelsblatt reported; aim is to lower electricity taxes to a minimum.

Central Banks

• ECB's de Guindos said risks are tilted to the downside, macroeconomic projections will be much more complicated now.
• ECB's Kazaks said the ECB could act if war raises inflation expectations.
• ECB's Kazimir said a rate hike on Iran may be closer than thought; no reason to act at next week's meeting.
• ECB’s Villeroy said he does not expect a rate hike at next week's ECB meeting, said energy costs are a minor part of consumer spending, said banks should stay calm amid the Iran crisis.
• ECB's Nagel said the ECB will act decisively if an energy spike feeds into durably higher inflation; the risk of higher inflation has risen, economic outlook has deteriorated; the latest US statements on Iran war offer cause for hope.
• Westpac and National Australia Bank now expect the RBA to hike rates in March and May.

FX

• DXY is choppy this morning; currently trading around the unchanged mark, within a narrow 96.69-99.07 range. Little fresh from a European perspective, as focus remains on newsflow out of Iran. As it stands, the current conflict is showing few signs of ending, with reports now suggesting that Iran is taking steps to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. On the energy front, the IEA Governing Board is meeting today, whilst a separate G7 discussion on energy coordination is also scheduled for 14:00 GMT today. It was recently reported that the IEA proposed a 300-400mln barrel release of stockpiles – sources suggest that, should there be no objections, it could be announced as soon as today. Focus later will also be on US CPI, though it may lack signalling capacity given the current geopolitical situation.
• The Aussie extends on recent outperformance, as more banks now expect the RBA to hike rates at next week’s meeting. NAB and Westpac are the latest banks seen supporting a hike, joining the likes of Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Delving into Westpac briefly, the bank previously forecast a hike in May, but the analysts now believe that the RBA will be “compelled to react” to the recent strength in oil prices. AUD/USD currently trades towards the upper end of a 0.71154 to 0.7185 range.
• Other G10s are trading modestly on either side of the unchanged mark vs the USD. The Loonie posts mild gains, given today’s strength in oil prices, whilst the JPY is the slight laggard, joined by the EUR. USD/JPY is venturing back into the touted “intervention zone”, beyond the 158.00 mark - though desks question the efficacy of intervening as the Iran war continues. GBP is essentially flat, awaiting cues from the Treasury Committee, which will question the Chancellor Reeves on the Spring Statement. BoE’s Breeden is also set to speak.
• For the EUR, currently trades just above the 1.1600 mark, within a 1.15904-1.1645 range. Today, there was a slew of ECB speakers, with particular focus on Kazimir who suggested that a rate hike on Iran may be closer than thought. This spurred some very modest upside in the EUR at the time, but was ultimately short-lived, given that he stated there is no reason to move rates at the next meeting.

Fixed Income

• APAC trade for fixed income was for the most part rangebound, with USTs and Bunds holding a handful of ticks in the red. JGBs also opened under pressure, with downside of 20 ticks at most. However, the move proved short lived as strong demand at the 5yr JGB tap underpinned the benchmark and lifted it to a 131.98 high, just shy of yesterday's 132.01 best.
• While relatively contained at first, EGBs came under renewed pressure early doors following ECB speak and a further uptick in energy benchmarks. Sending Bunds to a 126.55 trough over the course of the morning. On the former, Kazimir said an Iran-related rate hike could be closer than thought, though clarified that there is no reason to act in March. Near term market pricing has seen a very slight hawkish move this morning, but more pertinently end-2026 pricing implies around 25bps of tightening.
• In geopols, the UKMTO update seemingly spurred another leg higher in the crude space, with additional impetus potentially coming from the ongoing reporting around but lack of action on a reserve release.
• Moving to Gilts, the benchmark opened lower by over 50 ticks and has since slipped another 30 or so to a 90.27 base. Currently lagging, posting downside of 78 ticks vs 63 for Bunds. Action is very much occurring in tandem with the EGB move. Additionally, the UK has a packed agenda with Chancellor Reeves discussing her Spring Statement with the TSC, the release of Mandelson-related files by the government (around 12:30GMT) and then an appearance from BoE's Breeden, however this is scheduled to be on stablecoins.
• Vnet (VNET) , China's largest data centre operator, is considering a dollar bond sale to fund expansion, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
• Amazon (AMZN) opens books on eight-part EUR denominated bond offering.
• Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.69x (prev. 3.10x), average yield 1.633% (prev. 1.640%).
• Australia sold AUD 1bln 4.25% October 2036 bonds, b/c 3.87, avg. yield 4.9002%.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent front-month futures have been grinding higher since early European hours following a choppy APAC session and the declines seen during the prior session. Yesterday, there was a bout of selling pressure after US Energy Secretary Wright mistakenly posted that the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, although oil then pared some of the losses as the post was deleted shortly after, and the White House confirmed that this was false.
• Note, the IEA Governing Board is meeting today, whilst a separate G7 discussion on energy coordination is also scheduled for 14:00 GMT today. It was recently reported that the IEA proposed a 300-400mln barrel release of stockpiles – sources suggest that, should there be no objections, it could be announced as soon as later today.
• Spot gold holds an upward bias on either side of the USD 5,200/oz level, with the precious metal kept afloat alongside the recent easing in oil price pressures, although DXY has clambered off worst levels as eyes remain on flows in the Strait of Hormuz. A deterioration in sentiment in early European hours cushions downside for the yellow metal for now, which resides in a narrow USD 5,175.35-5,223.38/oz at the time of writing.
• Copper futures traded rangebound overnight but then slipped in early European hours amid a broader deterioration of sentiment as the Iranian war shows no signs of ending despite recent commentary from US President Trump. 3M LME copper is back under USD 13,000/t and resides towards the bottom end of a USD 12,993.00-13,151.53/t at the time of writing.
• G7 statement said the group is vigilantly monitoring the energy market, and G7 supports in principle the use of strategic oil reserve.
• IEA to recommend the release of strategic reserves, according to sources; volume in the first month would reportedly exceed 100mln barrels.
• IEA reportedly proposed oil stockpile release of around 300-400mln barrels, according to Bloomberg; decision is possible later on Wednesday, said a source.
• IEA has proposed the largest ever release of oil from strategic reserves to bring down the price of crude, according to WSJ. "Countries would decide Wednesday whether to release oil stocks in an attempt to tame crude prices". "The release would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil that IEA member countries put onto the market in two releases in 2022 when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine".
• As part of a potential 400mln barrel IEA crude release, Germany would release around 19.5mln barrels, Handelsblatt reports citing sources; equating to around 20% of Germany's reserves
• Black Sea CPC blend oil exports were reportedly revised down to around 1.4-1.5mln BPD for March (prev. 1.7mln BPD)
• White House reportedly believes it can "withstand a brief spike in oil prices — for as many as four weeks... before the political hit does lasting damage", according to Politico citing sources.
• Iraq's oil ministry has sent a letter to the Kurdistan regional government for the export of at least 100k BPD via the Kurdistan pipeline to Turkey's Ceyhan, according to oil officials.
• EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe's dependency on fossil fuels have cost it EUR 3bln in extra costs in the first 10 days of the Iran war, returning to Russian fossil fuels in the current crisis would be a strategic blunder. EU is preparing options to lower energy prices, which include better use of purchase power agreements and CFDs, state aid measures, gas price subsidies or caps.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) CEO tells the WSJ that 10 ships are trapped in the Persian Gulf and would need at least 10 days to resume normal operations if a ceasefire was to occur.
• Glencore (GLEN LN) workers reportedly set to conduct a strike at Australian copper refinery, according to Bloomberg.

Geopolitics

• Iran's Joint Command Spox said US and Israeli banks will be hit after an attack on an Iranian bank, via IRNA.
• Iran’s IRGC said it carried out its heaviest and most intense attacks since the start of the war, targeting US and Israeli assets across the region, according to WSJ.
• IRGC said it launched missiles carrying 2-ton warheads in a new wave of heavy, multi-warhead strikes targeting US bases in Iraq and Bahrain as well as Israel.
• Iran's police chief said anyone taking to the streets at the enemy's request will be confronted as an enemy and not a protester, adds security forces are prepared to respond and have their fingers on the trigger.
• Iran launches new wave of missiles on occupied territories.
• Iranian armed forces spokesperson vows retaliation for Israeli and US strikes on residential areas.
• US officials said Iran has laid less than 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz and it is unclear if it intends to lay more in the near term, according to WSJ.
• Drone reportedly hits a US diplomatic facility in Iraq, according to Washington Post.
• US Central Command said US forces eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels on March 10th, including 16 mine layers near the Strait of Hormuz.
• Air defenses shoot down a drone targeting a US military base near Erbil Airport in Iraqi Kurdistan.
• Israeli army announces massive wave of raids on Tehran, targeting Iranian regime infrastructure.
• UAE Defence Ministry reported air defences are currently intercepting missiles and drones from Iran.
• Israel rejects Lebanon's request for a halt in fighting to allow for talks, according to FT.
• UKMTO said it has received a report of an incident 50NM north-west of Dubai, with a bulk carrier hit by an unknown projectile.
• Russia's Kremlin said Istanbul is an possible location for talks next week but there is no specific clarity yet.
• North Korea conducted strategic cruise missile tests on Tuesday for a naval destroyer, while Leader Kim said destroyers must be equipped with supersonic weapons, according to KCNA.

US event calendar

• 7:00 am: United States Mar 6 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 11%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb CPI MoM, est. 0.29%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Core CPI MoM, est. 0.23%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb CPI YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Core CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.5%
• 2:00 pm: United States Feb Federal Budget Balance, est. -310b, prior -94.62b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After an extraordinary start to 2026, a small – and possibly brief – pocket of relative calm has returned to markets. I'd stress the emphasis on the word relative.  The year has already delivered Venezuela, Greenland, an early year JGB slump, a surge and subsequent slump in gold and silver, IEEPA tariffs being overturned, sharp falls in software and other AI sensitive stocks, private credit fears, major breakthroughs from Claude and Anthropic, and viral, vibe-driven commentary from Matt Shumer and Citrini Research that wiped more than a trillion dollars off global equity markets amid fears of disruption and millions of imminent job losses. We have also seen the KOSPI rise more than 50% in the first handful of weeks of the year, only to fall into a bear market before rebounding. And now we find ourselves in the middle of the Iranian conflict. Have I missed anything? In nearly 31 years of doing this job, I’ve experienced many years dominated by huge headlines and crises, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen the narrative shift so rapidly over such a short period. What is equally impressive is that most asset markets remain healthily positive for the year.

Until we move onto the next big event, markets continue to be driven by volatile news flow around Iran and the outlook for oil flows. Overall, the narrative has shifted towards a cautiously more optimistic tone, even as there’s little sign of an imminent end to the conflict. The improved optimism helped drive a dramatic fall in oil prices, with Brent crude down -11.28% from Monday’s European close to $87.80/bbl, marking its largest one-day decline since March 2022. The 12-month Brent future also fell by -1.93% to $72.05/bbl. After some volatility late yesterday, Brent is slightly lower again this morning and is around -27% below Monday’s intra-day highs but still about +20% above where it was before the US and Israeli strikes against Iran.

While much of the oil decline had come after Trump comments late on Monday, the move extended on Tuesday, notably after Saudi Aramco said it will ramp up crude flows via its pipeline to the Red Sea to 7mb/day within a few days, which would allow it to resume 70% of its usual oil shipments. While redirection of crude via this route was expected, it was still seen as good news as questions remained over its exact capacity. And while reporting over potential mining of the Strait of Hormuz saw oil prices bounce late in the US session, they moved lower again overnight after the Wall Street Journal reported that the IEA (International Energy Agency) has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in history to combat rising prices. IEA member countries are expected to decide on the proposal today, while G7 leaders will also today discuss the response to the crisis, according to Canada’s Mark Carney.

Brent even moved as low as $81/bbl shortly after the European close yesterday as US Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted that the US had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. However, this post was soon deleted and the White House confirmed that no such operation took place. And not long after, President Trump posted that Iran would face consequences “at a level never seen before” if it placed any mines in the Strait of Hormuz. That came as CNN reported that Iran was beginning to lay mines in the straits. Those headlines saw Brent move back towards $92/bbl, before declining again following the WSJ report on the planned oil reserve release.

Easing oil market stress sparked a strong rally in risk assets yesterday, with the STOXX 600 (+1.88%) recording its best day since last April. And while more concerning headlines late in the US session saw the S&P 500 (-0.21%) erase its gains, futures on the S&P 500 are +0.32% higher overnight. As I started typing this, they were +0.5% higher but an FT story has just been released suggesting JP Morgan have "clamped down on its lending to private credit groups" and have "marked down the value of certain loans in their portfolios". Asian markets are also off their highs but still up strongly with the Nikkei (+1.99%) and Kospi (+2.52%) leading the gains in Asia this morning. 

The volatility late in the US session did mean that the S&P 500 (-0.21%) closed nearly a percentage point off intra-day highs, with the equal-weight S&P 500 seeing a larger -0.82% decline. And the VIX index closed at 24.93, a modest -0.57pts lower on the day and notably above its intra-day low of 22.19. Still, while there remains plenty of caution, financial stress has eased materially since the start of the week when the VIX reached 35 at Monday’s open. And despite the recent volatility, the S&P 500 is still less than 3% from its record high on January 27. Some of the risk premium was also stripped out of other assets, with US high yield spreads tightening by -9bps while the dollar index (-0.35%) recorded its largest daily fall in the past month.

The Mag-7 have played a big role in supporting the relative resilience of US equities, with the index now +1.15% above its levels before the strikes after a +0.38% gain yesterday. The tech mood was also helped by Oracle’s results after the US close last night, with a strong sales forecast sending its stock +8% higher in after-hours trading.

Although developments in the Middle East remained the dominant driver, the latest US economic data also reinforced the picture of resilience. ADP’s weekly private payrolls report showed a four-week average of 15.5k for the period up to February 21, equivalent to around 62k on a monthly basis. Meanwhile, US existing home sales surprised to the upside in February, rising to an annualised pace of 4.09mn (vs 3.88mn expected). These releases helped mitigate concerns following the weakness in last Friday’s jobs report and pushed yields higher. A surge in corporate bonds sales added some upward pressure on yields, with a soft 3yr auction and volatile oil headlines leaving 10yr yields (+6.0bps to 4.16%) at the session’s highs by the close. Treasuries are reversing some of this move overnight, with the 10yr yield down -1.6bps.

US data remains firmly in focus today with the release of the February CPI report. This is a key print, as the recent oil shock has pushed back market expectations for the next Fed rate cut. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, today’s data will help shape expectations for subsequent decisions. Our US economists are watching for tariff related strength in core goods, particularly apparel, alongside recent gains in wholesale used car prices. Overall, they expect headline CPI to rise by +0.27%, boosted by a +1.0% increase in energy prices, keeping the year-on-year rate at +2.4%. Core CPI is forecast at +0.24% month on month, leaving the annual rate unchanged at +2.5%. For more detail, see their full preview here.

In Europe, markets rallied sharply as investors finally had the chance to react to Trump’s comments made after the previous day’s close. All major equity indices surged, including the DAX (+2.39%), FTSE 100 (+1.59%) and CAC 40 (+1.79%). Fixed income markets also saw large moves, as the fall in oil prices prompted investors to rapidly scale back expectations for rate hikes this year. Overnight index swaps are now pricing just 17bps of ECB tightening in 2026, down from 30bps at Monday’s close, while BoE pricing for December moved from pricing 1-2bps of hikes to 16bps of cuts by the close. As a result, 10 year gilt yields dropped by -9.3bps, their biggest daily fall since the reaction to the 90 day tariff delay after Liberation Day last year, while 2 year gilt yields fell -12.3bps. Moves in German bunds were more muted, with the 10 year yield down only -2.0bps to 2.83%, although the 2 year yield declined by a larger -6.4bps. Overall, the backdrop now looks much closer to the scenario outlined by our European economists here, which envisages a moderate and transitory shock rather than one that would prompt ECB tightening.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation (PPI) slowed for a third consecutive month in February (+2.0% y/y) down from +2.3% in January and coming in slightly below the 2.2% forecast. This moderation was largely facilitated by government fuel subsidies, providing a temporary buffer against rising commodity costs. Nevertheless, economists warn that the benefits may be short-lived due to the escalating oil prices.

Looking ahead, today brings the US February CPI and the federal budget balance. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman and the ECB’s Guindos and Schnabel. Notable earnings include Telecom Italia, and there is also a 10-year US Treasury auction.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 08:28

Insurance As A Weapon: How The Strait Of Hormuz Shapes Global Power And Energy Markets

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

War is raging in Iran. Amid the fog of propaganda, it is increasingly difficult to separate fact from fiction, to distinguish AI-generated material from actual bomb strikes, and to see behind the carefully woven veil of media spin and national interests. Yet, we attempt here to make sense of the latest moves on the geopolitical chessboard.

One immediate consequence of the Strait of Hormuz blockade is a fatal ripple effect in the energy sector. Companies such as QatarEnergy are forced to reduce gas and oil production. Refineries are shutting down, and tankers can no longer transport output. The physical logistics of the energy market are faltering – with consequences far beyond the region.

Markets are responding nervously. Both spot and futures prices continue to climb. At the close of New York trading, WTI crude stood at around $93 per barrel, nearly a twenty percent increase since the U.S.-Israeli intervention against Iran’s Ayatollah regime.

From a European perspective, the implications are clear. The highly energy-dependent continent is increasingly politically adrift. For many governments, a lot is at stake if prices are not swiftly brought under control. Rising energy costs, growing production expenses, and mounting burdens on households and businesses threaten a new economic stress test for Europe.

For a week, Brussels has been in frenetic motion. Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission stages media-friendly exercises that amount to little more than political shadowboxing: attempting to solve a shortage problem that cannot be eliminated through domestic production. Member states are currently discussing  joint purchasing consortia and familiar tools such as subsidies and cost offsets for energy-intensive industries – the usual toolkit, deployed repeatedly in the past. In other words, much of it boils down to massive debt accumulation intended to temporarily alleviate the effects of the Hormuz blockade. 

Looking to Germany, one sees how vulnerable Europe’s energy architecture remains. The rapid decline of gas storage levels underscores the importance of a robust strategic reserve.

In this context, the European decision to mandate a strategic oil reserve equivalent to at least ninety days of average consumption was farsighted. The timing and scale of reserve deployment remain uncertain.

A note on the disproportionately high gasoline prices in Germany: this is precisely the effect when a high-taxing fiscal state claims roughly 65 percent of the retail price. In an energy crisis, this structure paradoxically makes the state a short-term beneficiary of rising prices.

The Europeans’ inability to act was epitomized by German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider of the not-so-social Social Democrats. Faced with rising fuel costs, he bluntly recommended that Germans switch to electric cars. This cynical stance – coming from the security of a well-padded, subsidized political bubble – makes the attitude so unbearable. Those who drive the country economically – millions of commuters dependent on cars for their livelihood – are dismissed entirely.

Naturally, the expansion of renewable energy and the continued commitment to the green transition remain central points on the EU agenda. They simply cannot escape their closed, ideologically narrow argumentative framework.

Other options remain politically taboo. The exploration of domestic gas reserves in Europe or the long-term maintenance of coal-fired power – even in Germany – is still not seriously considered. The pressure on political decision-makers has evidently not yet reached a level sufficient to return to a pragmatic, rational energy policy.

From the U.S. perspective, the Hormuz blockade and the planned political power shift in Tehran fit into a larger strategic concept. Control over oil and gas flows from Venezuela, combined with the U.S.’s record domestic production, could create a significant problem for China, which is existentially dependent on imports from these regions.

Should the U.S. achieve its political objectives in Tehran, a massive shift of power would tilt in its favor. Together with the oil states more closely bound to its power structure, it could dominate the global energy market and substantially strengthen its position relative to Beijing.

This is of critical significance for future negotiations with China. It concerns not only energy but also access to rare earths, curbing Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere, and the so-called fentanyl war, where the last word has certainly not yet been spoken.

Another observation is worth noting. In this reorganizing geopolitical power constellation, which is largely determined by access to energy and strategic resources, Europe has largely lost its strategic agency. Between the U.S., Russia, and China, it barely emerges as an independent actor.

Europe has thus accomplished a remarkable feat: politically caught between all stools – and now standing as a dependent price-taker in energy markets, with its back to the wall.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has also shaken a previously overlooked market: maritime insurance. Following Tehran’s threat to close the strait, several tanker attacks occurred off the coast. Insurance premiums soared, and major providers – a market dominated by the City of London – immediately withdrew. Risks were too high, and coverage in the event of a claim could no longer be guaranteed.

This was the decisive moment: U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) would step into the gap. State-backed war and political risk coverage at “very reasonable” prices, as he put it, would provide relief. This creates a government-supported competitor to Lloyd’s. The U.S. is not only supplying insurance capacity but combining it politically with U.S. naval escorts – gunboats.

For the now virtually invisible British Empire in financial and insurance markets, this – following massive attacks on the London-based LBMA precious metals markets – would be the next pillar of its power structure to wobble, a framework previously sustained mainly through international trade.

In short: the next geopolitical lever for the U.S. comes into view, should it capture a significant portion of this insurance business. Whoever controls the underwriting lever – who decides which risks are covered and which tankers receive a policy – wields a massive sanctioning instrument. Insurance has thus become a geostrategic tool, with Europe left on the sidelines.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/11/2026 - 07:20