April 2009

AIG Ignores New Derivatives Protocol

The Financial Times is reporting AIG is ignoring the new rules on derivatives.

The unit that all but destroyed AIG has failed to sign up for the overhaul of the global derivatives market which was given added impetus by the troubles at the US insurance group.

AIG confirmed that its financial products unit, whose soured bets on credit default swaps forced the company into government hands last year, did not adopt the “Big Bang” protocol that has been signed by more than 2,000 market participants.

The protocol, created under the auspices of International Swaps & Derivatives Association, is intended to make it easier for investors in the opaque market for credit derivatives to know what will happen to their contracts if debt defaults occur. It came into force on Wednesday.

Goldman Sachs Selling Stock to Pay Back TARP

Now here is an interesting story:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., by selling stock to help it repay $10 billion to the U.S. Treasury, may pressure competitors to follow suit or appear dependent on government support, analysts said.

The company, scheduled to report earnings April 14, is considering announcing the share sale as early as next week, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. Lucas van Praag, a spokesman for New York-based Goldman Sachs, declined to comment.

Now while the report states Goldman Sachs owes $10 Billion, the reality is, through AIG, Goldman Sachs received $12.9 billion.

I'd say that's a very nice free profit by getting 100% payouts via AIG.

Sunday Morning Comics - Humor Deficit Edition

Sponsored by The Economy - Humor deficits are at an all time high. Therefore all humor will be cut from the state and local budgets, effective immediately. The United States has implemented a cap and trade laughing program. China has a surplus of laughs, primarily at the expensive of America. It is vital China agree to the Chortle protocol treaty, due to increasing global chuckle.
Cup O' Joe

 

Good Morning! Rise and Shine! Get that Cup O' Joe...
break out the O.J....hang out with the pooch...time to check out the Funnies!

 

CBO: Social Security in much worse shape than previous thought

What was supposed to be healthy for the next eight years may suddenly become sickly as soon as next year. What this means to the budget is catastrophic.


I want you to note the extreme deterioration in surplus funds between the 2008 and 2009 forecasts. Can you spot the trend?

Here’s a prediction – these too will be revised to the worse in about 6 months. I base this prediction on my belief that more people will opt for retirement than are currently projected and that entitlement program tax receipts will be below current projections. Also, nearly every prediction by the CBO has been revised to the worse over the past year so I am “riding the trend” with this prediction.

Springtime during the Ice Age

On this Easter/Passover weekend while we are enjoying the blossoming of spring, Robert Reich has a blog post that nicely encapsulates a debate percolating through the econoblogosphere:

[W]e're not at the beginning of the end. I'm not even sure we're at the end of the beginning. All of these pieces of upbeat news are connected by one fact: the flood of money the Fed has been releasing into the economy.... The real question is whether this means an economic turnaround. The answer is it doesn't.

The only economic fundamental that's changed ... is that so many people got so badly burned that the trust necessary for consumers, investors, and businesses to repeat what they did then has vanished.
....

I spent the better part of an hour yesterday evening debating Larry Kudlow on his CNBC program, along with Arthur Laffer and two other financial analysts, all of whom were sure that the stock market had hit bottom and was now poised for a major recovery. I admire cockeyed optimism, and I understand why Wall Street and its spokespeople want to see a return of the bull market. Hell, everyone with a stock portfolio wants to see it grow again. But wishing for something is different from getting it.

In other words, the "green shoots" side and "dead of winter" side are polar opposites, and never the twain shall meet.

Not so. As it happens, there's good reason to believe that both sides are right.

Friday Movie Night - Frontline's Black Money Edition

 It's Friday Night! Party Time!   Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!

Did you know that international, corporate and state bribery is valued at over $1 trillion a year?

Frontline's Black Money an in depth investigative documentary on the state of international bribery today.

This is a Lowell Bergman work so as one can imagine, the investigative report quality is truly in depth. Most interesting is the problem if one country stops bribery the idea is other nations will have a competitive advantage to obtain large defense contracts for they will pay the bribes.

Stop The Madness

Yesterday I put up an Instapopulist post regarding the national demonstrations which will be happening tomorrow. This effort is being organized and coordinated by a new grass roots organization called A New Way Forward.

Today, I want to emphasize the importance of showing up at these demonstrations, in light of the new article from Michael Hirsch of Newsweek. Here's the link to the story.

As Hirsch points out, the administration has received push back from some members of the Senate. And there are some slight indications that there is sentiment within the administration to institute modest to serious regulations. Yet, the NY Fed is currently holding meetings with WS insiders and their traditional regulators, to decide the type of regulation that would work best for them. In other words, regulation lite and no transparency to outside agencies.

Fed budget deficit hits March record of $192.3 Billion

Our borrowing binge continues to spin out of control. No nation can continue to borrow at these rates for long. Especially when our trade deficits is falling like a rock, thus reducing the amount of dollars that can be recycled back to our shores.

(AP) -- The Treasury Department said Friday that the budget deficit soared to $192.3 billion in March, and is near $1 trillion just halfway through the budget year, as costs of the financial bailout and recession mount.

Last month's deficit, a record for March, was significantly higher than the $150 billion that economists expected.

The deficit already totals $956.8 billion for the first six months of the budget year, also a record for that period. The Obama administration projects the deficit for the entire year will hit $1.75 trillion.

China's export collapse continues

Bloomberg reports that:

China’s exports fell for a fifth month in March....

Overseas sales declined 17.1 percent to $90.29 billion from a year earlier, the customs bureau said on its Web site. Imports dropped 25.1 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $18.56 billion.
....
The export decline was less than February’s record 25.7 percent drop.

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