August 2011

Debt Deal Delusions: Debt to Gross Domestic Product Ratio

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The compromise "is a positive step toward reducing the future path of the deficit and the debt levels,” Steven Hess, senior credit officer at Moody’s in New York, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We do think more needs to be done to ensure a reduction in the debt to GDP ratio, for example, going forward." Bloomberg, Aug 2 (Image: Okko Pyykko)

How many times have you read or heard about the magic numbers concerning the ratio of national debt to gross domestic product (GDP)? This was trotted out by both sides of the debt ceiling debate as a fact: if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 90%, the results will be dire. Therefore, our current situation calls for a crisis reaction and extreme measures to get below the magic number.

Uncle Sam Gets a Visitor

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Originally published on The Agonist

Hey, John! John Bull! How you doing? It’s been a while – I don’t get many visitors these days you know. You’re looking great! I gotta say – I loved that wedding. Loved it! I saw all of it from the very beginning to that balcony scene at the end. I saw it live too – at 3:00 a.m. – right here in the hospital room. I was up anyway; I don’t sleep too well these days. I have to say, you guys really do that pageantry stuff better than anybody. The Pope could take some lessons from you, and those guys at the Vatican have a few millennia of practice at that sort of thing. And that Kate and William! What a lovely couple. Do you know they came to visit me right after the honeymoon? Very thoughtful, they were.

Hey, you wouldn’t mind putting on one of those white face masks, would you? These hospitals are just full of germs and you shouldn’t take any chances.

You heard about my illness, didn’t you? Something to do with my debt ceiling. My blood count was too high – reaching the limit – I couldn’t follow it all. They had all these specialists in Washington running around shouting at each other. It was all over the television channels. A real embarrassment, I tell you! Half of them were saying I needed even more blood transfusions, and the other half were saying maybe I should slow down a bit or even reduce my intake. I’m all in favor of that; I’d like to get back to where I was ten years ago, when I wasn’t stuck in a hospital bed.

Moody's Gives Negative Outlook on U.S., Keeps AAA

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Moody's keeps the United States AAA credit rating but gives a negative outlook.

From their press release:

Moody's Investors Service has confirmed the Aaa government bond rating of the United States following the raising of the statutory debt limit on August 2. The rating outlook is now negative.

Moody's placed the rating on review for possible downgrade on July 13 due to the small but rising probability of a default on the government's debt obligations because of a failure to increase the debt limit. The initial increase of the debt limit by $900 billion and the commitment to raise it by a further $1.2-1.5 trillion by yearend have virtually eliminated the risk of such a default, prompting the confirmation of the rating at Aaa.

In confirming the Aaa rating, Moody's also recognized that today's agreement is a first step toward achieving the long-term fiscal consolidation needed to maintain the US government debt metrics within Aaa parameters over the long run. The legislation calls for $917 billion in specific spending cuts over the next decade and established a congressional committee charged with making recommendations for achieving a further $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction over the same time period. In the absence of the committee reaching an agreement, automatic spending cuts of $1.2 trillion would become effective.

A Sugar-Coated Satan Sandwich

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Originally published on The Agonist

Was it just a week ago that President Obama was hanging tough, insisting he would never accept a debt ceiling package that excluded tax increases? In rejecting a six month extension of the debt ceiling, Obama said last week:

But there’s an even greater danger to this approach. Based on what we’ve seen these past few weeks, we know what to expect six months from now. The House of Representatives will once again refuse to prevent default unless the rest of us accept their cuts-only approach. Again, they will refuse to ask the wealthiest Americans to give up their tax cuts or deductions. Again, they will demand harsh cuts to programs like Medicare. And once again, the economy will be held captive unless they get their way.

Here is what Speaker of the House John Boehner said today about the debt ceiling package that has now been agreed to by the House and Senate leadership, along with President Obama:

Now listen, this isn’t the greatest deal in the world," he said, according to excerpts of the call provided to press by Boehner's office. "But it shows how much we’ve changed the terms of the debate in this town."
Boehner painted the deal as victory for the Republican party because it did not include revenues, which Democrats have long called for as part of a final deal.
"There is nothing in this framework that violates our principles," he said. "It’s all spending cuts. The White House bid to raise taxes has been shut down." – source HuffPost

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