Gross Domestic Product

Another Strong Quarter for GDP, Q3 3.5%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP came in at a strong 3.5%.  This is the second quarter in a row for solid economic growth.  Q1 showed a contraction  Take a good look for Q3 GDP will be revised and we estimate strongly downward as imports come into the Census for tabulation.  Private inventories contracted, hence investment was much less than Q2.  Consumer spending was also tamer.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly solid.


Q2 2014 GDP a Strong 4.6%

Q2 2014 real GDP was revised to 4.6%, a strong showing not seen since Q4 2011.  Q2 Gross Domestic Product also cancels out the dismal Q1 -2.1% real GDP contraction for the year.  Growth was across the board.  Investment showed large growth.  Personal consumption expenditures increased and were a large component of GDP. Changes in private inventories was a large GDP contribution, but so were exports.

Q4 GDP Downgrades to a Measly 2.4%

Q4 2013 real GDP was revised significantly downward from the original 3.2% to a weak, measly 2.4%.  Personal consumption expenditures was revised down over half a percentage point of GDP.  The original estimate for exports was also revised down over a quarter of a percentage point.  If the Q4 downward revision in consumer spending isn't bad enough, for all of 2013 annual real GDP was just 1.9%.  In 2012, annual GDP was 2.8%.


GDP 2.8% for Q3 2013

Q3 2013 real GDP came in at 2.8%  Changes in business inventories saved the day as did less of an increase in imports.  Fixed investment also increased.   Government spending declines were about the same as Q2, yet local governments increased spending.  Consumer spending was less growth than Q2, only about 37% of this quarter's GDP.

Q2 2013 GDP Revised Upward to 2.5% on the June Trade Deficit Shrink

Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported   The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier.  The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change.  Unfortunately this is a fluke.

GDP 1.7% for Q2 2013

Q1 2013 real GDP came in at 1.7%   Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.1%.   Government spending declines were much less of a drag on the economy than Q1 while imports sucked out -1.51 percentage points of economic growth.   Exports did recover but were about half of what imports subtracted from GDP.  Investment grew on across the board increases.   Consumer spending decreased slightly from Q1.  Generally speaking 1.7% GDP implies fairly weak economic growth, the third quarter in a row for GDP below 2.0%.

GDP Revised Down to 1.8% for Q1 2013

Q1 2013 real GDP was revised downward to 1.8% from 2.4%.   This is fairly bad news, as fourth quarter 0.4% GDP already showed a stagnant economy.   The revisions were so extensive it is like reading a different report.  Consumer spending was the biggest downward revision followed by significantly less exports than originally reported.