Gross Domestic Product

Q1 2016 GDP Revised Upward to 1.1%

Q1 GDP was revised upward to 1.1%.  Originally GDP was estimated to be 0.5%, then revised up to 0.8% and now reported to be 1.1%.  While consumer spending was revised somewhat lower again, exports came to the rescue and bumped up Q1 GDP.  Private investment contraction was less than originally estimated as well.  Now GDP is still weak but not anything to be concerned about.  Seems revisions always change the economic growth story and Q1 is no exception.

Q1 2016 GDP Blows a Raspberry with a 0.5% Increase

The initial Q1 GDP estimate shows economic growth as a stagnant 0.5%.  Consumer spending was all services consumption.  Private investment just walloped the economy as both nonresidential fixed investment and the changes in private inventories contracted.  Exports also receded.  An ominous bright spot is residential investment grew by almost half a percentage point.  Government spending added to GDP.

 

Services Use More Than Estimated as Q4 GDP Revised Upward to 1.4%

Q4 GDP was revised upward again to now be 1.4%.  That's double the original advance report of 0.7% and the first revision was 1.0%.  The primary cause of the upward revision was more consumer spending in services than previously estimated.  The trade deficit Q4 GDP impact was significantly less.  Residential housing was revised upward as well.

Q4 2015 GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%

The initial Q4 GDP estimate is an ominous 0.7%.  Consumer spending was the only dimly lit bright spot,with changes in inventories removing 0.45 percentage points from GDP.  The trade deficit didn't help either as exports were less than imports and the end result was a -0.47 percentage point drain on Q4 real GDP.  Both government and fixed investment GDP contribution was next to nil.

 

Q3 GDP 2.0% as Investment in Inventories Declined

Q3 GDP has been revised to 2.0%.  This is a smidgen, a 0.1 percentage point lowering than the last estimate.  Most factors which make up GDP did not change much from the primarily estimate.  Changes in private inventories was where the revision occurred as they were revised from -0.59 to -0.71 percentage points of GDP.  Consumer spending and domestic demand are still muddling along with moderate growth.

Q2 GDP Revised Even Higher to 3.9%

Q2 GDP has been revised upward again to 3.9%.  Originally Q2 GDP was reported as 2.3% and then increased to 3.7%.  The reason for the higher GDP revision is consumer spending was revised upward by over a quarter of a percentage point.  Consumer spending was 62% of real GDP.  The revision is yet another surprise since GDP is now 70% greater than the original estimate.

Q2 GDP Soars With 3.7% Growth

Q2 GDP has been significantly revised upward from 2.3% to 3.7%.  Investment was dramatically revised upward as was spending by state and local governments.  Consumer spending was a healthy 57.2% of real GDP.  Also surprising was a lack of upward revisions in imports.  Regardless, that is a 1.37 percentage point GDP revision, a 59% change from the advance report.

Q2 GDP 2.3% As Reivisions Cause Q1 GDP To Go 0.6% Positive

For the second quarter GDP bounced back to 2.3%.  The BEA revised the national accounts back three years and now Q1 GDP is 0.6% instead of the -0.2% previously reported.  The revisions may have improved Q1 2015 Gross Domestic Product, but on average, lowered GDP for the last three years by 0.3 percentage points.  From 2011 to 2014 real GDP was 2.0% instead of the previous average of 2.3%.  That's quite a stunt in economic growth overall.

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