imports

June Trade Deficit Up 7.1%, Negligible Impact on GDP

Our trade deficit increased by 7.1% in June as the value of our exports fell and the value of our imports rose.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for June indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $2.9 billion to $43.8 billion in June from a May deficit which was revised from $41.9 billion to $40.9 billion.

Q2 GDP 2.3% As Reivisions Cause Q1 GDP To Go 0.6% Positive

For the second quarter GDP bounced back to 2.3%.  The BEA revised the national accounts back three years and now Q1 GDP is 0.6% instead of the -0.2% previously reported.  The revisions may have improved Q1 2015 Gross Domestic Product, but on average, lowered GDP for the last three years by 0.3 percentage points.  From 2011 to 2014 real GDP was 2.0% instead of the previous average of 2.3%.  That's quite a stunt in economic growth overall.

It's Official, We're Negative, GDP -0.7% for First Quarter

If is official.  It happened.  First quarter 2015 real GDP just went negative with a -0.7% contraction.  Remember folks, two consecutive quarters of negative growth can make up an official recession.  In reality the revision is a one percentage point slide.  Psychologically speaking, contraction isn't too swift as it often pricks bubble minds that blow hot air all over as they deflate.  The reason for the negative revision is imports.

Economy Stalled as First Quarter GDP Only 0.2%

First quarter 2015 real GDP is a measly, pathetic 0.2%.  That's quite disappointing, and just shavings and crumbs away from contraction.  Consumer spending was less than half of the contribution Q4 brought and exports imploded.  While some think this is a report to ignore, that economic growth will spring back, we think this is quite a foreboding of bad news.

 

Q4 2014 GDP Revised Down to 2.2%

Fourth quarter 2014 real GDP was revised 0.4 percentage points lower to 2.2%.  That's quite disappointing, although still mediocre growth.  The reason for the revision reduction was inventories did not grow nearly as much as originally estimated and imports increased.  Real consumer spending was barely revised.  Overall Q4 GDP cutting isn't that surprising, more Q3 GDP's lack of trade deficit impact was.

 

Trade Deficit Declines 7.7% on Crude Oil Imports

The U.S. November 2014 monthly trade deficit declined -7.7% from last month and now stands at -$39 billion.  America still runs a surplus in services, now at $19.3 billion, but the goods deficit is still massive and this month was -$58.3 billion.  This month's trade deficit reduction is due to less crude oil imports and lower oil prices.

Q3 2014 GDP Revised Up to a Whopping 5.0%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised up even further to a whopping 5.0%.  Merry Christmas Wall Street as the Dow closed above 18,000, a record high.  This is the highest quarterly GDP since Q3 2003, a full eleven years ago.  The reason for the revision blow out was consumer spending and investment.  Real consumer spending was revised up almost 3/4th of a percentage point more than the first revision previously reported.

Q3 GDP Surprisingly Revised Upward by Half a Percentage Point to 3.9%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised upward to 3.9% from the original 3.5%.  The reason was investment, as changes in private inventories were revised sharply upward.  Consumer spending was also stronger by over a quarter of a percentage point and also bumped up the revision.  Imports were revised upward and exports downward which subtracted from economic growth.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly strong in this Turkey surprise.

Another Strong Quarter for GDP, Q3 3.5%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP came in at a strong 3.5%.  This is the second quarter in a row for solid economic growth.  Q1 showed a contraction  Take a good look for Q3 GDP will be revised and we estimate strongly downward as imports come into the Census for tabulation.  Private inventories contracted, hence investment was much less than Q2.  Consumer spending was also tamer.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly solid.

 

Q2 2014 GDP a Strong 4.6%

Q2 2014 real GDP was revised to 4.6%, a strong showing not seen since Q4 2011.  Q2 Gross Domestic Product also cancels out the dismal Q1 -2.1% real GDP contraction for the year.  Growth was across the board.  Investment showed large growth.  Personal consumption expenditures increased and were a large component of GDP. Changes in private inventories was a large GDP contribution, but so were exports.

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