imports

Q1 2016 GDP Blows a Raspberry with a 0.5% Increase

The initial Q1 GDP estimate shows economic growth as a stagnant 0.5%.  Consumer spending was all services consumption.  Private investment just walloped the economy as both nonresidential fixed investment and the changes in private inventories contracted.  Exports also receded.  An ominous bright spot is residential investment grew by almost half a percentage point.  Government spending added to GDP.

 

February Trade Data Points to Some Bad Signs

The U.S. February 2016 monthly trade deficit increased 2.6% from last month and now stands at -$47.1 billion.  America still runs a surplus in services, now at $17.7 billion, but the goods deficit is still massive and this month was -$64.7 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit hasn't been this high since August 2015.

Services Use More Than Estimated as Q4 GDP Revised Upward to 1.4%

Q4 GDP was revised upward again to now be 1.4%.  That's double the original advance report of 0.7% and the first revision was 1.0%.  The primary cause of the upward revision was more consumer spending in services than previously estimated.  The trade deficit Q4 GDP impact was significantly less.  Residential housing was revised upward as well.

January's Trade Off to a Bad Start; On Track to Knock a Half Point Off Q1 GDP

Our trade deficit rose by 2.2% January, while the net value of both our exports and our imports decreased.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for January indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $1.0 billion to $45.7 billion in January from a December deficit which was revised from $43.4 billion to $44.7 billion

Q4 2015 GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%

The initial Q4 GDP estimate is an ominous 0.7%.  Consumer spending was the only dimly lit bright spot,with changes in inventories removing 0.45 percentage points from GDP.  The trade deficit didn't help either as exports were less than imports and the end result was a -0.47 percentage point drain on Q4 real GDP.  Both government and fixed investment GDP contribution was next to nil.

 

Trade Deficit a 43 Basis Point Hit to 4th Quarter GDP Despite A 5% Drop in November

Our trade deficit fell by 5.0% November, after rising by a revised 5.0% in October, as the net value of both our exports and imports decreased.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for November indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by $2.2 billion to $42.4 billion in November from a October deficit which was revised from $43.9 billion to $44.6 billion.

Q3 GDP 2.0% as Investment in Inventories Declined

Q3 GDP has been revised to 2.0%.  This is a smidgen, a 0.1 percentage point lowering than the last estimate.  Most factors which make up GDP did not change much from the primarily estimate.  Changes in private inventories was where the revision occurred as they were revised from -0.59 to -0.71 percentage points of GDP.  Consumer spending and domestic demand are still muddling along with moderate growth.

September Trade Revisions Will Add 11 Basis Points to 3rd quarter GDP

Our trade deficit fell by 15.0% in September, virtually reversing the 15.6% jump in August, as the value of our exports rose and the value of our imports fell.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for September indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by $7.2 billion to $41.8 billion in September from an August deficit which was revised from $48.3 billion to $48.0 billion.

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