imports

Q4 GDP Downgrades to a Measly 2.4%

Q4 2013 real GDP was revised significantly downward from the original 3.2% to a weak, measly 2.4%.  Personal consumption expenditures was revised down over half a percentage point of GDP.  The original estimate for exports was also revised down over a quarter of a percentage point.  If the Q4 downward revision in consumer spending isn't bad enough, for all of 2013 annual real GDP was just 1.9%.  In 2012, annual GDP was 2.8%.

 

September's 8.0% Trade Deficit Increase Should Lower Q3 GDP

The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion.  The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision.  We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.

GDP 2.8% for Q3 2013

Q3 2013 real GDP came in at 2.8%  Changes in business inventories saved the day as did less of an increase in imports.  Fixed investment also increased.   Government spending declines were about the same as Q2, yet local governments increased spending.  Consumer spending was less growth than Q2, only about 37% of this quarter's GDP.

Q2 2013 GDP Revised Upward to 2.5% on the June Trade Deficit Shrink

Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported   The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier.  The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change.  Unfortunately this is a fluke.

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