imports

Q4 2015 GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%

The initial Q4 GDP estimate is an ominous 0.7%.  Consumer spending was the only dimly lit bright spot,with changes in inventories removing 0.45 percentage points from GDP.  The trade deficit didn't help either as exports were less than imports and the end result was a -0.47 percentage point drain on Q4 real GDP.  Both government and fixed investment GDP contribution was next to nil.

 

Trade Deficit a 43 Basis Point Hit to 4th Quarter GDP Despite A 5% Drop in November

Our trade deficit fell by 5.0% November, after rising by a revised 5.0% in October, as the net value of both our exports and imports decreased.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for November indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by $2.2 billion to $42.4 billion in November from a October deficit which was revised from $43.9 billion to $44.6 billion.

Q3 GDP 2.0% as Investment in Inventories Declined

Q3 GDP has been revised to 2.0%.  This is a smidgen, a 0.1 percentage point lowering than the last estimate.  Most factors which make up GDP did not change much from the primarily estimate.  Changes in private inventories was where the revision occurred as they were revised from -0.59 to -0.71 percentage points of GDP.  Consumer spending and domestic demand are still muddling along with moderate growth.

September Trade Revisions Will Add 11 Basis Points to 3rd quarter GDP

Our trade deficit fell by 15.0% in September, virtually reversing the 15.6% jump in August, as the value of our exports rose and the value of our imports fell.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for September indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by $7.2 billion to $41.8 billion in September from an August deficit which was revised from $48.3 billion to $48.0 billion.

August Trade Deficit Jumps by 15.6%, on Pace to Subtract 0.68 Percentage Points from 3rd quarter GDP

Our August trade deficit rose by 15.6% from July as the value of our exports fell and the value of our imports rose.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for August indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $6.5 billion to $48.3 billion in August from a July deficit which was revised from $41.9 billion to $41.8 billion. 

Q2 GDP Revised Even Higher to 3.9%

Q2 GDP has been revised upward again to 3.9%.  Originally Q2 GDP was reported as 2.3% and then increased to 3.7%.  The reason for the higher GDP revision is consumer spending was revised upward by over a quarter of a percentage point.  Consumer spending was 62% of real GDP.  The revision is yet another surprise since GDP is now 70% greater than the original estimate.

July Trade Deficit Falls by 7.3%, on Pace to Add 0.58 Percentage Points to 3rd quarter GDP

Our July trade deficit fell by 7.3% from June as the value of our exports rose and the value of our imports fell.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for July indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by $3.3 billion to $41.9 billion in July from a June deficit which was revised from $43.8 billion to $45.2 billion. 

Q2 GDP Soars With 3.7% Growth

Q2 GDP has been significantly revised upward from 2.3% to 3.7%.  Investment was dramatically revised upward as was spending by state and local governments.  Consumer spending was a healthy 57.2% of real GDP.  Also surprising was a lack of upward revisions in imports.  Regardless, that is a 1.37 percentage point GDP revision, a 59% change from the advance report.

June Trade Deficit Up 7.1%, Negligible Impact on GDP

Our trade deficit increased by 7.1% in June as the value of our exports fell and the value of our imports rose.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for June indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $2.9 billion to $43.8 billion in June from a May deficit which was revised from $41.9 billion to $40.9 billion.

Pages