imports

Q3 GDP Surprisingly Revised Upward by Half a Percentage Point to 3.9%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised upward to 3.9% from the original 3.5%.  The reason was investment, as changes in private inventories were revised sharply upward.  Consumer spending was also stronger by over a quarter of a percentage point and also bumped up the revision.  Imports were revised upward and exports downward which subtracted from economic growth.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly strong in this Turkey surprise.

Another Strong Quarter for GDP, Q3 3.5%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP came in at a strong 3.5%.  This is the second quarter in a row for solid economic growth.  Q1 showed a contraction  Take a good look for Q3 GDP will be revised and we estimate strongly downward as imports come into the Census for tabulation.  Private inventories contracted, hence investment was much less than Q2.  Consumer spending was also tamer.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly solid.

 

Q2 2014 GDP a Strong 4.6%

Q2 2014 real GDP was revised to 4.6%, a strong showing not seen since Q4 2011.  Q2 Gross Domestic Product also cancels out the dismal Q1 -2.1% real GDP contraction for the year.  Growth was across the board.  Investment showed large growth.  Personal consumption expenditures increased and were a large component of GDP. Changes in private inventories was a large GDP contribution, but so were exports.

Q4 GDP Downgrades to a Measly 2.4%

Q4 2013 real GDP was revised significantly downward from the original 3.2% to a weak, measly 2.4%.  Personal consumption expenditures was revised down over half a percentage point of GDP.  The original estimate for exports was also revised down over a quarter of a percentage point.  If the Q4 downward revision in consumer spending isn't bad enough, for all of 2013 annual real GDP was just 1.9%.  In 2012, annual GDP was 2.8%.

 

September's 8.0% Trade Deficit Increase Should Lower Q3 GDP

The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion.  The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision.  We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.

GDP 2.8% for Q3 2013

Q3 2013 real GDP came in at 2.8%  Changes in business inventories saved the day as did less of an increase in imports.  Fixed investment also increased.   Government spending declines were about the same as Q2, yet local governments increased spending.  Consumer spending was less growth than Q2, only about 37% of this quarter's GDP.

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