trade deficit

Trade Deficit Increases $1.2 Billion in May, Shows Slight Real Decrease From 1st Quarter

Our trade deficit increased by 2.9% in May as the value of both exports and imports decreased but our exports fell by a greater amount.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for May indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $1.2 billion to $41.9 billion in May from an April deficit which was revised from $40.9 billion to $40.7 billion.

Trade Deficit Declines 7.7% on Crude Oil Imports

The U.S. November 2014 monthly trade deficit declined -7.7% from last month and now stands at -$39 billion.  America still runs a surplus in services, now at $19.3 billion, but the goods deficit is still massive and this month was -$58.3 billion.  This month's trade deficit reduction is due to less crude oil imports and lower oil prices.

September's 8.0% Trade Deficit Increase Should Lower Q3 GDP

The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion.  The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision.  We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.

Trade Deficit Dramatic Shrink Will Boost Q2 GDP

The U.S. June 2013 monthly trade deficit cliff dove -22.4% from last month to $34.2 billion.  This is the smallest trade deficit since October 2009 when the world was plunged into a global recession.  A combination of a dramatic drop in oil imports along with solid U.S. exports in fuel oil, capital goods and jewelry was the reason for the deficit decline.  Q2 GDP should be revised upward past 2.0% as shown below.

Trade Deficit Pops Back Up, Increases 16.2% for January 2013

The U.S. January 2013 monthly trade deficit increased 16.2% to $44.45 billion after December's -20.9% trade deficit implosion.  This month is all about oil imports and we suspect Hurricane Sandy potentially affected imports in December and why the wild swings.  December had the lowest petroleum related imports since August 2009.

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