trade deficit

September's 8.0% Trade Deficit Increase Should Lower Q3 GDP

The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion.  The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision.  We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.

Trade Deficit Dramatic Shrink Will Boost Q2 GDP

The U.S. June 2013 monthly trade deficit cliff dove -22.4% from last month to $34.2 billion.  This is the smallest trade deficit since October 2009 when the world was plunged into a global recession.  A combination of a dramatic drop in oil imports along with solid U.S. exports in fuel oil, capital goods and jewelry was the reason for the deficit decline.  Q2 GDP should be revised upward past 2.0% as shown below.

Trade Deficit Pops Back Up, Increases 16.2% for January 2013

The U.S. January 2013 monthly trade deficit increased 16.2% to $44.45 billion after December's -20.9% trade deficit implosion.  This month is all about oil imports and we suspect Hurricane Sandy potentially affected imports in December and why the wild swings.  December had the lowest petroleum related imports since August 2009.

Trade Deficit Jumps 15.9% to $48.7 Billion for November 2012

The U.S. November 2012 monthly trade deficit increased by 15.85%. This is an increase of $6.667 billion to give a monthly trade deficit of $48.731 billion. November's U.S. exports increased $1.744 billion or 0.96%. Imports soared by $8.410 billion which is a 3.8% increase from last month. The three month moving average gives a trade deficit of $43.691 billion and a increase of $2.05 billion.

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