ADP Says 179,000 Private Sector Jobs Added in April 2011

ADP, a private organization, released their private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 179,000 private sector jobs in April 2011. Below are the reported private sector jobs from ADP. This report does not include government, or public jobs.

 

ADP employment

 

We take the ADP report with a grain of salt, especially on a monthly basis. Why? Because there is a mismatch against the BLS jobs report. To date, the number of private nonfarm payroll jobs ADP reports versus what the BLS reports and on a month-to-month and even cumulative basis don't match. This monthly error is often large, especially when looking at small job growth overall (< 400,000 jobs per month) on a month to month basis.

Below is the cumulative difference between what the ADP reports as the private nonfarm payroll jobs vs. the BLS (ADP minus BLS). This line shows the divergence, over time in number of nonfarm private payroll jobs reported between the two reports. This post has been updated to include the April BLS numbers.

 

ADP vs. BLS

 

While ADP notes a simple correlation of 0.95, well, a 5% error between monthly reported jobs numbers is an average, and we can see on some months the differences are quite large and around 2008, the difference started to hit about 900,000 jobs.

ADP does use the same seasonal adjustment as the BLS, but their other methodology and even sampling size are different, is proprietary and also seems to change from month to month. Generally the ADP claims their sample size is at least twice as large as the BLS current employment statistics survey. The ADP does not incorporate a birth/death model, although they do categorize jobs by the NAICS codes, the same as the BLS.

Bottom line, the official report, upon which other metrics are based, is the BLS. Additionally, since the BLS is our government, we get to find out exactly what methods and models they use, unlike ADP.

All of this said, the reality is the The United States currently needs about 10.7 million jobs to get back to pre-recession levels, taking into account population growth and the labor participation rate back in December 2007. Anyone jumping all over themselves over < 200,000 jobs added in one month, at minimum, isn't taking population growth into account and is experiencing wishes and dreams instead of what's true.

There is one thing to note that is worth looking at, especially due to it's relativity within the same report (and methods). ADP reports on large vs. medium vs. small businesses and their job creation per business size. In April:

Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by 11,000, while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 84,000. Employment for small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, rose 84,000 in April.

Below is the graph of ADP private sector job creation breakdown of large businesses (bright red), median business (blue) and small business (dark red). For large business jobs, the scale is on the right of the graph. Medium and Small businesses scale is on the left.

Notice how large businesses have been declining and the pattern starts just about the time offshore outsourcing and the China PNTR came into effect. Small businesses, on the other hand, have increased employment. May I suggest that small businesses are not international, they are not signing offshore outsourcing contracts and moving jobs to India and China. Multinationals, on the other hand, the below decade trend line clearly shows these so called U.S. corporations have abandoned the U.S. worker, on whole. Earlier, the BEA reported statistics validating the ADP job creation trends by business size.

 

ADP large, medium, small private sector jobs

 

March 2011 ADP private sector jobs were revised upward, from 201,000 to 207,000. ADP also is in sync with the BLS on the bottoming and millions of jobs lost in construction.

Since December 2010, however, construction employment has, on balance, risen, suggesting that finally employment in this sector has bottomed out. The total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,115,000.

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You and I Are Both Missing Something

The President has had big meetings for three weeks in a row re comprehensive immigration reform (which is not comprehensive at all but that's a comment for another time).

If we legalized everybody, the tax receipts and purchasing power of all the formerly illegal would solve our economic problems. We'd also have millions of wonderful new voters. We know this is true because the pro immigration people tell us this all the time. They've said it enough to make it true by now, just as they hoped it would.

We must be wrong to think President Obama should be concentrating on employment getting American citizens into good paying, full time jobs with benefits because obviously he's not thinking about that at all and if it were important, he'd talk about it all the time, not never.

Plus of course besides talking, he'd be taking action and would be asking Congress every day to do something to get the unemployed back to work and to give them more unemployment until they get a job. He'd also be trying to get more funding for social services that are heavily used by the unemployed and underemployed.

Right?

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this agenda are lobbyists

all about labor arbitraging more Americans, technology transfer to India, China, EEs as well as the illegal alien lobby. Guess it's time to write up some labor economics reality posts.

My understanding is MNC, tech is now lobbying intensely for more offshore outsourcing/corporate controlled migration/guest worker Visas.

They use these people to technology transfer offshore, as well as labor arbitrage, they especially like to target STEM.

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Nearshoring To Mexico

Mexico wins the battle for off-shoring location among business leaders. The following article gives insight into the "why" we're in an unemployment crisis, and "why" we'll remain in a crisis.

"Mexico Tops U.S. as Nearshoring Favorite" dated May 5, 2011 ( http://news.thomasnet.com/IMT/archives/2011/05/mexico-tops-us-as-nearsho... )
(1) According to a recent survey from global business-advisory firm AlixPartners, 63 percent of senior manufacturing executives selected Mexico as the most attractive country for re-sourcing manufacturing operations closer to the U.S., with only 19 percent citing the U.S. itself as the best location for getting closer to the U.S. market.
**** The survey results are based on responses from 80 C-level and other senior manufacturing executives across more than 15 industries earlier this year.

(2) The survey also found that 9 percent of manufacturing executives have already taken steps to nearshore their company's operations, while 33 percent plan to do so within the next three years.

(3) Mexico remains a popular destination for offshoring. According to AlixPartners, 37 percent of survey respondents have completed or are in the process of offshoring, while 27 percent plan to offshore some U.S. operations within the next three years. Mexico topped the list as an offshoring site among both groups, narrowly beating China and surpassing India, Brazil and Eastern Europe by wide margins.

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As anyone can see, we continue to support foreign economies at the expense of our own. As I've said many times, "Global Economy means equalization to the lowest level." Cheap foreign labor markets will continue to force our wages down, and eventually push us into third world status. Our workforce will continue to be supported by government assistance programs until our national debt reaches its' breaking point, which can't be too much longer.

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Because you can do wrong, and get away with it, doesn't make it right

Employment

It's very obvious to most that Mr. Obama has no intention to put America back to work. Since Congress is controlled by Lobbyists and the power of Corporate America and Wall Street, we can't count on them for help either. Illegal immigrants ( slave labor ) will continue to get a free pass because the rich and influential are making untold $$$Millions from the cheap labor illegals provide. We don't have a pro-America government seated in Washington, and the proof to that statement fills the daily headlines and is obvious on Main Street America each and every day.

To solve our economic crippling employment crisis would require adequate living wage opportunities that cover all education and skill levels across the board. This can only be accomplished by (1)demanding fair, equal, and balanced foreign trade, (2)severely penalize job out-sourcing, (3)severely penalize businesses that relocate out-side of our borders, and (4)sentence anyone that hires an illegal immigrant to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

America no longer produces what America uses and consumes. We've become import dependent. Over the past half century, we've lost many industries to cheap foreign labor markets. This has caused the steady decline in living wage opportunities on American soil.

Unemployment checks and government assistance programs have replaced "living wage checks" from employers. We've steadly created a society dependent on government assistance for its' survival. As our population grows and living wage opportunities decline, this situation can only get worse.

Where will the tax revenue come from to support a workforce unemployed and dependent on government assistance ???

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Because you can do wrong, and get away with it, doesn't make it right

RICO

Life sentences are not practical.

Going after the little guys who do the hiring - for example, labor contractors in the fields -- is like going after the 12-year-olds who do the street running for crack dealers who are themselves pretty far down the ladder from the big-time importers of cocaine.

You can go out into the fields of Central California and you'll find layers of contracts, almost like derivatives, wrapped around many 10-acre or 40-1cre parcels. The "owners" of the land, what do they know? Somebody's name on a title in the County records. But what other paper can be found, after a diligent search, that conditions the title? The "owners" may have leveraged (monetized) title to some bank, who leased it to somebody who has already sold the crop in advance to somebody who leased the cultivation and the seeding to other somebodies who leased the weeding and spraying to other somebodies, who subbed the hiring to somebody who hired three semi-legals who happen to have brought along 15 of their cousins (who don't speak one word of English).

If you find the ultimate owners, they are likely to be off-shore entities. So, when you go to sentence them, where do you find them? Are you going to send arrest teams of U.S. Marshals around the world? And the corporate fronts or partnerships, what if they cry foul not only in our courts but also international law. And then there's retaliation: maybe some U.S. investors will be tried and sentenced to life in other countries - who knows what for?

BUT there is a way to get at the entire system. RICO! Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organization Act. You wouldn't have to take more than a few hundred acres for the entire system to change quickly. Of course, it couldn't be done without some kind of amnesty for at least some of the "precariat" (precarious proletariat) who are currently doing the work on the ground.

Remember the meat-packing plant in Iowa that was raided in 2008? What if it had been seized in its entirety, including the methamphetamine factory located at its center?

I think people would pay attention.

OOOPS! One little glitch: not only can the working people of America not count on the White House and, for sure, not on the current Congress - we also cannot count on the SCOTUS!

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Hiring

Obviously, the person that does the hiring without checking for legal citizenship is at fault. I totally disagree that it would be difficult to trace papers to the one that actually hires illegals. There's no need to search through mountains of papers to find top level owners. Again, life in prison without the possibility of parole for anyone hiring illegals would put an end to illegal workers in America. It's simple to find out who actually hired an illegal. When you got a job, did you know who hired you? Of course you did. A few simple questions would reveal the person who hired an illegal.

Also, I would include anyone giving illegals food, shelter, medical care, etc. at taxpayers' expense.

You're correct in saying that we can't count on government, at any level. All three branches are corrupt and anti-America.

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Because you can do wrong, and get away with it, doesn't make it right

I appreciate your comments, but

First of all, no, I often did not know who hired me. I got a job years ago with a farm labor contractor in Salinas and I did not know who hired me. I heard from a guy that was on a short-hoe crew that I should show up at a store parking lot at 5 AM and drive a crew bus. I received a pay check, eventually, of course - but who checked on my immigration status? Nobody's immigration status was checked. Seeing as how I was born in this country, and that was what they wanted, I didn't expect to be 'carded'. All I did was fill out a W-4. Yes, of course, there was a company name, but what if it's a corporation?

Are you seriously suggesting that we jail corporate officers for what their corporations do? I guess maybe that happened once in the Chicago case where Polish immigrant laborers were dying from exposure to poisons. I forget how it turned out, but I doubt that anyone actually did time.

And not only at lower end jobs. When I was hired by large corporations, even when a security clearance was involved, I did not know exactly who hired me. Something to do with the Personnel Department, of course, but there were also interviews.

"A few simple questions"? Of whom would these questions be asked?

Ultimately, you would need a piece of paper signed by someone who is willing to risk life imprisonment.

This makes no sense to me. For one thing, how do you determine if the person who appears to have signed the paper really did, or if the signature was forged, or if the signature belongs to a real person? And have you ever heard of a shredder?

About imprisoning anyone who is responsible for giving food, shelter, etc., at taxpayers' expense ... that has to trace back to federal bureaucrats. Everyone else down the food chain is going to say, "Well, look, this was approved by the government, and what? Now that same government wants to throw me in jail?" So, then, you will say, okay, throw the bureaucrats in jail. You can't even sue those guys on the basis of their individual responsibility - they are protected by laws implementing sovereign immunity.

Anyway, what about this - I know a U.S. citizen who suffered a broken arm while traveling in Germany. Treated with high tech methods, all done, no charge. The Germans told her that they didn't resent that they had to support the system that treated her - they EXPECT that in any civilized country!

Sonny Clark: I greatly appreciate your information-type comments, but I think on the prognosis side, you are an unrealistic extremist.

OOPS. I voted you down resulting in a -1. But now, I have to admit that I am an unrealistic extremist (I guess) when it comes to my support of American Monetary Institute monetary reforms and other financial reforms. Also, I do sometimes fantasize about lining the traitors up in front of a machine gun. So, okay, I have responded with my objections, and now I will vote even your extreme comment up by a +1.

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Employer

Although there may be rare cases where an employee does not know exactly who they're working for, the vast majority of employees know who hired them. I certainly wasn't talking about the rare exceptions here.

Of course, in cases of emergency treatment such as a broken arm, yes, we would do the humane and civil thing. I wasn't talking about the exceptions. I was talking about general medical care given illegal immigrants. Check the stats for medical care and treatment of illegals just in the state of California.

As far as thinking that I'm an unrealistic extremist, you're certainly entitled to your opinion. And, in my opinion, you're blinded to reality. ***** Please note : Personal attacks are not allowed on this site according to the administrator. I would appreciate it very much if you would stick to topic of conversation, and refrain from directing comments towards the person instead of towards the subject matter.

Also, I couldn't care less whether you vote my comments up or down. This site is not a contest, but rather one for information and civil discussion. Please keep that in mind when commenting to material posted on this site. It would be greatly appreciated, thanks in advance.

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Because you can do wrong, and get away with it, doesn't make it right

Apology to Sonny Clark

I apologize!

My friend, (and you are my friend, as Red Skelton used to say), I did NOT say that you are unqualifiedly an "unrealistic extremist" -- I conditioned that by "on the prognostic side." I apologize because what I should have said is that, while I agree with you about how extreme many of the realities are  and I think that you are realistic in your diagnosis  I also think that what you advocate by way of solutions (your prognosis) is unrealistic and extreme.

So, I apologize. I should have been careful to distinguish you from the radical changes in the U.S. Criminal Code that you propose (assuming that your proposals are meant to be taken at face value).

BTW: Whether you could care less or not, I'm still going to vote for your comments when I find that they are advancing the discussion!

I agree with you that votes are not about a contest. My votes are to let people know if I have found an article to be worth reading.

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Appreciated

No appology necessary, but thanks. Yes, I do think differently than most, and proud of it. Yes, I do think in the extreme because conventional thinking is basically a stalemate and non-productive. At present, considering the dire dark situation this country is in, extreme thinking and measures are needed to right the sinking ship. We've all seen and heard what the so called "conventional thinking and wisdom" has lead us to. Basically, the conventional thinking has sent us into a downward economic spiral that may take decades to recover from. I'll spare you the long list of woes presently resting at our doorsteps. But, to make it short and sweet, we're in very very bad shape as a nation, and as a people.

Yes, you can take everything that I say at face value, everything. The "kid glove" soft approach hasn't worked, and won't work. We need to introduce the hard-line method of dealing with the multitude of problems facing this nation, and do it in a hurry. Trying to be gentle and kind has proven to get us nowhere except deeper in the socioeconomic mire of debt, poverty, and dependency.

Yes, I agree that some of my thinking and solutions are extreme, and maybe a little on the unrealistic side. But, unrealistic only to the point that most are content with long-standing approaches and methods. Few are willing to step outside the box in order to approach problems from a different avenue. Radical change scares folks, and thus the reason that what we're seeing is old approaches to new problems. The dynamics of global economics has changed almost every nation on Earth. We can't solve today's problem with ancient remedies.

As far as our judicial branch of government is concerned, it's a rigged system fueled by the same vices and lack of morals that government in general is fueled by. The list includes greed, influence, power, egos, and self-centered benefit. In America, your freedom is your luck, and not the constitutional guarantees that we were taught in school. Many innocent American citizens are presently sitting in our jails and prisons as we speak. It's not uncommon to hear several times a year that someone is released after serving over ten years for a crime they didn't commit.

Thanks again for the appology, though it wasn't necessary. Now that you've explained your position, it's obvious that I totally misunderstood you. I also appologize for that. Have a great day my friend.

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Because you can do wrong, and get away with it, doesn't make it right

Info on RICO/Immigraton law

Having apologized, I respectfully suggest that my proposal to enforce systematic violation of immigration law through application of the existing RICO statutes is (could be and should be) a realistic approach. I would like to see more popular support and greater reporting on this group of RICO cases. I would also like to see more attention to the SCOTUS Anza case as another recent example of how the working people of America are regularly screwed by the SCOTUS -- comparable to the Citizens United case. (In theory, the Court is supposed to be impartial!)

U.S. Attorneys around the country have not picked up on the RICO option for enforcement. (The requirement for confirmation by the Senate assures nominees that can be depended on not to upset the expectations of major contributors to senate campaigns.)

Possibly the only case of a public prosecutor getting involved in a criminal RICO complaint was when the popularly elected county board (supervisors or commissioners) of an Idaho county hired an attorney to assist the County Attorney in preparing criminal RICO complaints against local businesses that were believed to be making that county an attractive source of jobs for allegedly illegal workers, with related governmental problems and expenses. I don't have the details, but it may have been related to Mendoza v. Zirkle Fruit Co., 301 F.3d 1163 (9th Cir. 2002).

This is the situation despite the fact that in 1996, Congress specifically amended immigration law to include RICO application in immigration cases. The law authorizes use of RICO by state as well as by federal prosecutors (U.S. Attorneys). However, as noted, prosecutors have failed to pick up on this option.

There have been some efforts made in isolated cases by groups of legal workers (U.S. citizens or 'Green Card' residents) who resent discrimination against U.S. citizens. I have seen this discrimination myself, in Hood River and The Dalles, Oregon, in the 1970s, when corporate employers refused to hire experienced legal farm labor in order to hire ONLY illegals. (So much for the idea that "Americans won't take the jobs"!)

 

Here are some links about the cases and history of efforts to apply RICO in immigration cases:

Article on I-9 Employment Eligibility Verification, including discussion of RICO

Pioneering litigation by attorney Howard Foster on behalf of U.S. citizens suffering discrimination by corporate employers favoring illegal workers

2010 LexisNexis article ("Learning From RICO: Immigration Enforcement through Employer Accountability")

It should not come as a great surprise to anyone that the SCOTUS has acted to squelch the clear intent of Congress and of the people! At least that's how things stand now as far as class-action suits under RICO by legal employees (or former employees) and antitrust suits by employers suffering unfair competition from employers who violate the law. For RICO case, see Anza v. Ideal Steel Supply Corp. (2006). Resourceful attorneys following the lead of Howard Foster  have explored ways to advance cases in state courts, using state anti-trust statutes; and, this line of litigation may still be viable.

PDF written for employers worried about the trend

There is also available an excellent, thorough and unbiased summary (46 pages)  of the current situation:

PDF (2010 Doctoral Thesis by Megan Martha Reed, J.D., Washington and Lee University School of Law)

 

Also, see 8 U.S.C. § 1324(a)

 

 

 

 

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wow, that's a damn blog post

Keep it up 4OKEY and I'm gonna have to rig up something here which promotes comments to some sort of special post status. ;)

I must wonder, how many official Democrats are hip to this never ending labor arbitrage through manipulation of immigration, covered under some sort of B.S. of discrimination (if one wants to have a controlled and enforced immigration system then of course that one is a racist xenophobe).

Silicon valley, right now is spending millions, all in their attempts to labor arbitrage, offshore outsource even more and get their glorified corporate controlled unlimited global migration, controlled by them in reality, agenda through.

Positively disgusting.

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Unpaid and Exploited

*** This is a side note to your comment ***

Unpaid and Exploited? Examining Interns in the US Labor Market
Internships have become a principal point of entry for young people seeking white-collar careers, and it is estimated that half of all college students will do an internship before graduating. Between 1 and 2 million people overall will work as interns this year in the United States—saving firms $600 million dollars. The proliferation of the unpaid and low- paid intern workforce in cities like Washington has become so much the norm that rarely are the fairness, costs and benefits, or legality of this growing class of labor examined.
In a recently published book, Intern Nation, Ross Perlin examines these issues in the most thorough analysis of the internship industry to date—exploring whether working for free violates labor laws, the extent to which internships exacerbate existing socio-economic inequalities and under what conditions do internships provide a useful path connecting people to the labor force.

( source ---> http://www.epi.org/page/event/detail/epiforums/jvt )

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Because you can do wrong, and get away with it, doesn't make it right

Service Sector Jobs

To show just how bad the job market really is, the Associated Press reported in an article titled "Rate on 30-year fixed mortgage falls to 4.71 pct.", the service sector employs 90% of our workforce. Where did the manufacturing jobs go? Can we have an independent economy without adequate manufacturing jobs? Can we ensure enough service sector jobs to employ our rapidly growing workforce?

Another article titled "Sleepwalking through America’s Unemployment Crisis" dated May 1,2011, gives us this information: The issue is the scope and composition of unemployment in America – a problem that is yet to be sufficiently recognized for its increasingly detrimental impact on the country’s social fabric, its economic potential, and its already-fragile fiscal position and debt dynamics.

The article list these facts: (1) At 8.8% almost three years after the onset of the global financial crisis, America’s unemployment rate remains stubbornly (and unusually) high (2) Rather than reflecting job creation, much of the improvement in recent months (from 9.8% in November last year) is due to workers exiting the labor force, thus driving workforce participation to a multi-year low of 64.2% (3) If part-time workers eager to work full time are included, almost one in six workers in America are either under- or unemployed (4) More than six million workers have been unemployed for more than six months, and four million for over a year (5) Unemployment among 16-19 year olds is at a staggering 24%. ( source --> http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/elerian4/English )

The job market and employment outlook doesn't look good from where I stand. The bad news continues to flow daily, and The Washington Brotherhood seems unconcerned and out-of-touch with the reality of the situation and obvious crisis. While Washington is attempting to cut cost, they fail to see the connection between our astronomical debt and our shameful unemployment crisis. If they don't connect the dots soon, it'll be too late to reverse the "borrow and spend" cycle that has amassed over $$14Billion ( and rising ) in debt.

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Because you can do wrong, and get away with it, doesn't make it right

Link to Chomsky's remarks

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Applause

Applause for Robert Oaks   AND for Sonny Clark

Light    has been cast into many dark corners of the real economy.

 

 

 

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The Downward Spiral

The obvious truth is on every corner of Main Street America. The daily headlines are filled with bad news about employment, the economy in general, our astronomical debt, trade deficits, wars, housing, and increases in poverty and those living off of government assistance programs. Meanwhile, Washington sleeps.

Our downward spiral continues regardless of what rhetoric we hear coming out of the mouths of the Washington Brotherhood. The cost of living is running away from real wages, and affordable health care has become rare for the majority of the population. Food pantries have empty shelves, and home foreclosures have turned many neighborhoods into ghettos. Last week a report came out that said 20% of the homes in the state of Florida are now vacant.

But, when all is said and done, American voters will continue to re-elect anti-America professional politicians to serve in Washington. Go figure.

** Thanks for the applause my friend.

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Because you can do wrong, and get away with it, doesn't make it right

Have Monthly Additions to Workforce Increased?

http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/06/news/economy/april_jobs_report_unemploym...

For all the growth so far this year, job gains are only slightly ahead of the 150,000 new jobs that are needed to keep pace with population growth.

I'm used to seeing 125,000 used as the monthly number of new people entering the workforce.  I've seen the 125,000 figure cited over and over the past two plus years I've been following the extremely conplicated and frustrating topic of unemployment.

Is this 150,000 figure an adjustment due to our growing population, due to increased immigration, or something else? 

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hold on, working on the unemployment report analysis, overview

In the works, takes me a while to pour over the data, but one thing, seems the MSM has finally picked up on the concept of population growth, that said, they are not calculating it out, clearly, from that number.

I'll do 2 of these overviews and look at the real population growth, by month.

Remember it's all based out of Census, 2000 base and has a lot of assumptions.

I almost always have a minimum of 175,000 jobs needed to keep up with population growth by the way and EPI is higher.

Depends upon what assumptions one makes.

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I Figured You Were or Would

Thanks. If only we could rely on the government as we can rely on you! You are ever faithful and I very much appreciate that.

I had a few more things to say already but I figured you would cover the April report separately so I held off.

Maybe they are finally using 2010 Census? I seem to recall reading that preliminary data had been released for just about all 50 states, and that was more than a month ago.

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read this for now

This is from January, where I ran though one method to figure out how many jobs are needed to keep up with population growth, Exercises for the Reader.

I'm going to try to update this soon and dig out a few more assumptions that the economists are making when determining these monthly estimates.

My beef is fundamentally the noninstitional popopulation is based on estimates, but is off of the 2000 Census base numbers.

I think that's a little statistically nuts and is also due to the lack of funding to the BLS and Census to tighten up the accuracy of this base metric.

Anyway, I ran through a bunch of calculations on that post. I just came up with 98,000 or so jobs on a month by month basis to keep up with population growth but that is the lowest number I've ever cranked, so I need to check myself for errors.

Fun, fun. BLS always has me whipping out my calculator and spreadsheets.

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Delayed effects of population increases

Thank you for working with calculator and spreadsheets. That's work! Important work.

I would just note that part of the whole stats analysis thing is that effects of population increases and patterns of those increases (baby booms, etc.) are delayed by many years. Even in the case of immigration of adults, even for H1B visas, the downstream effects are largely unpredictable and difficult to track. It's guessing, regardless of how hard we work with spreadsheets. We are in a period of tremendous social instability and, therefore, of demographic instability.

I think that at this time even basic mortality tables (the ones based on stats collected for reality not for limited legal purposes) are subject to relatively radical changes.

Life insurance is just one part of the picture. Overall, re-insurance of any type has become a risky game.

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let's move this to the labor report comment threads

and since you bring it up, I can do a post just on the "foreign born", which as close as we can get to H-1B Visas beyond the direct numbers (which are also tough to get accurately, they don't track on guest worker Visas!). Foreign born means simply anyone not born in the United States, which is obviously a pathetic metric to determine labor arbitrage with. There ya have it.

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