and if we believe Federal Government budgets are screwed up...well, just look at the CA insanity as a prime example in terms of cutting budgets effectively.

Midtowngs “got some spla’n to do:

How do you reconcile your negative data (e.g. "the GDP of Stimulus") with New Deal Democrate who posted the following today:

“The October ISM Manufacturing Index report is out, and it's a blowout. This is as good as it gets, there is definitely a V shaped recovery in manufacturing underway.

Perhaps most importantly of all, for the first time in ages, employment actually grew, at 53.1 vs. last month's 46.2. Additionally, 20% of employers reported plans to hire workers, and 64% who planned on stable workforces, for a total of 84, vs. 15% who planned layoffs, for a net +4 in the index.

At no point during the 1992-3 and 2002-3 "jobless recoveries" did the ISM manufacturing index ever rise to 54 or above. A number above 54 has always meant job growth in the overall economy.”

Thanks to Midtowng and ‘the Rebel’ for your quick responses to my comment.

Midtowng, I feel a need to say that I type up my comments in Word and copy to the comment section. After I posted, I realized that I failed to copy the last one word line “Respectfully”. Reading my comment I fear it sounds a tad sophomoric. “You da’ man”

Back to economics, your point about the ISM being 15% of the economy is well taken. New Deal seems to be aware of this. He writes: “we still need to see what the ISM service index shows on Wednesday before we can dare to hope that Friday's October jobs number might actually print positive.”

More generally, all the contradictory economic talk points to how helpless the average worker is when it comes to ‘rationally’ affecting our economic well being. I am in a high percentile of education. However, I have no economic education and never bought stocks or bonds. I’m still mad that my bank took my passbook account away from me.

So how do I, and the rest of the working class rationally make an informed decision? It seems to come down to a guess – indeed ‘hope’. Or, frustration to the point of aggression.

I think the “Tea Parties” are not about this or that bill so much as venting shear frustration. Who can possible get mad at the content of these bills? No one reads them, and if they do they probably don’t understand them, and if they do understand them, the provisions change daily. So the aggression can best be explained by frustration resulting from the realization that participator democracy is an illusion and the opium of the people.

Thanks again.

The sad thing about financial education is that there are many self-serving pundits writing books, articles, and blog posts, and teaching courses at local high schools and community colleges (not to mention putting on seminars at restaurants and hotel convention centers). Employers are even bringing in investment advisors to teach their workers how to diversify their 401(k) accounts. Some of these gurus are better than others, but I'm sure a lot of people try to educate themselves in good faith to make better investment decisions, only to lose their shirts in every financial downturn that comes along.

It appears to me that the masses are taught certain investment strategies just to make it easier to take them to the cleaners. I fear that even if we all started making the "right" decisions in lockstep with each other, we'd still just be prey for the bigger predators.

The chance to secure a seat on the "V" train left about a year ago.

That was when our government had a choice before it: Bail out the people, or bail out the very gangsters and banksters who caused the mess. Our government chose the banksters over the people, and we will pay for this folly for two generations.

When the crisis hit, there was only one workable solution - a complete society-wide revaluation of assets and bad debt write-off. The economy was a ponzi scheme were the last ones in were left holding the bag. And the last in were millions of mortgage, refinance loans and credit card balance holders. And instead of making them whole, our government chose to make the top of the pyramid whole.

All the major banks and casino houses needed to collapse, trillions in debt write-off needed to happen, and trillions needed to be poured into the social safety net to catch those that would fall due to the resulting depression. But then we could have cleared the books and moved on.

But instead Bernanke got out a giant air hose and inflated a new bubble to hide the popping of the last one. And now, as far as the eye can see, we'll have only Fed printing and government schemes ahead to hide the implosion.

That anyone can see a "V" shaped recovery, when we're at the heels of a global implosion to make the Great Depression look like a tea party, is amazing to me.

..."print positive" in New Deal democrat's post at BB. I am still trying to understand if he actually meant a net increase in jobs. Not even the most optimistic economists surveyed by Bloomberg think so; the consensus range for Friday's BLS numbers run from 55,000 to 200,000. And ADP's reported net loss of 203,000 certainly doesn't presage anything positive when the government figures are released.

To be fair, NDd backed off on the jobs numbers in his post today, no doubt unbuoyed by the drop in the ISM service sector employment index and the lower than expected service sector growth index. 

I have been of the opinion for many months that we could see a V-shaped GDP "recovery" and that L____________-shaped job recovery. That, in fact, is exactly what a "jobless recovery" is all about.

In the past four recessions, the bounceback to pre-recession levels went like this:

1973-75 - GDP: 24 months; Jobs: 24 months

1981-82 - GDP: 24 months; Jobs: 28 months

1990-91 - GDP: 18 months; Jobs: 31 months

2001      - GDP:   6 months; Jobs: 47 months

If the current recession continues this split-trend, let me repeat what I've been saying for a year: we need a new definition of recession.

^{Not pretending to be an economist}

A major post on munis elicited only one comment on munis and lots of drivel. Does no one invest in them or live in a city or state in the US which needs them to survive??????

Several municipalities have declared bankruptcy already. No jobs and falling home values = less revenue for the tax collectors. So what are the states doing? Raising taxes. Here in Pennsylvania I've heard my school taxes may double to pay for government pensions. Meanwhile, it took our moronic state legislators months to agree on a budget that slashes services. So I'm going to have to pay more to get less. How long do you think it will be before fed-up Americans revolt? Soon, I hope.

It's epic. It's catastrophic. I just don't think people realize how bad its going to get. But some people do.

"We're facing a cliff in 2011 when stimulus dollars run out," said Mitchell Bean, director of the Michigan House Fiscal Agency. "There is not an end in sight, even in recovery."
As of July 2009, California's budget shortfall was 49.3% of its general funds. States have considered drastic options to fill such gaps.
"I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year. "I literally looked at the federal constitution to see if there was a way for states to return to territory status."

All this happy talk about Green Shoots and Recovery has lulled people into believing that the worst is over. Maybe in some areas it is, but none of those areas involve state and local budgets.

Mr. Genest estimated that, eventually, 40% of the state's budget would go to the state Medicaid program, 40% to education, 10% to debt service and 6% to retiree medical services and pension—leaving little left for anything else, such as the state's corrections system.
...
"Citizens don't quite understand yet the implications of some of the cuts that we've made," Mr. Bean said. "A lot of it has fallen on local governments. I am very concerned that we're going to have a lot of insolvencies in local governments."