The Durable Goods report (M3) for November was released on December 24th. The two graphs below show Durable goods since 1992 and then just for this recession period. Regardless of the trend, one can see we have a long way to go on new orders to get back to some real growth indicators.
New Orders increased 0.2% (or should we say flat lined?) Transportation caused a large decrease in new orders, without it, New Orders would have been a 2.0% increase. Defense is the reason for the increase at all, without it, new orders would have been zero.
Defense capital goods new orders shot up 8.5%. Non-defense aircraft and parts dropped a whopping -32.6%. Non-defense aircraft is a notorious volatile manufacturing area, but still one must note last month this Manufacturing sector had a blow out in new orders, yet overall, new orders was still down 0.6%.
Computers and Electronics are coming alive, with a 3.7% increase in new orders this month.
Inventories dropped 0.2% Defense aircraft had the largest inventory reduction, 1.8%. Inventories have been declining for months, but in October they increased.
The hope is when inventories get too low for the economy (big if, and new orders is one indicator), manufacturers must start hiring again.
Shipments increased 0.3%.