M3

Another Month, Another Drop in Durable Goods New Orders

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders declined by -1.0% for January 2014, but December 2013 new orders were revised downward to a -5.3% plunge.  The better news of this report is core capital goods increased by 1.7%.  For the last three of four months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.

Durable Goods New Orders Bomb Out for December 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders plunged by -4.3% for December 2013 after a 2.6% increase in November.  The really bad news in this report is core capital goods declined by -1.3%.  For the last two of three months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.  While December is shaping up to a bad month for the economy, a word of caution as durable goods are often revised dramatically.

 

Factory Orders Jump by 1.8% for November 2013

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders increased 1.8% for November.  Without transportation equipment, new orders increased 0.6%.  October showed a drop in factory orders by -0.5%.  For Q4, factory orders are starting to shape up and the signs point to increased economic demand.

Durable Goods Shoots Way Up, 3.5% New Order Gain for November 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.5% for November 2013 after a -0.7% decrease in October.   The really good news in this report is the growth in core capital goods.  New orders in core capital goods increased 4.5% for November  This report is often revised dramatically, yet even inventories did not decline.   Even without volatile aircraft durable goods new orders increased.

 

Durable Goods, Inventories and Q3 GDP

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders decreased by -2.0% for October 2013 after a 4.1% increase in September.   The decline was mainly aircraft as transportation durable goods new orders by themselves dropped -5.9%.  Without transportation orders, which aircraft is a large part, durable goods new orders fell by -0.1%.  We also estimate Q3 GDP will be revised upward to 3.2% on inventories.

 

Factory Orders Increase 1.7% for September 2013

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders increased 1.7% for September.  Without transportation equipment, new orders decreased -0.2%.  August showed an overall -0.1% decline in new orders whereas July had a -2.8% plunge.  For Q3 factory orders looks none too good.

Durable Goods September Report Might Imply Slowing Economy

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.7% for September 2013, but the gains are due to volatile aircraft and parts orders.  Without transportation orders, which aircraft is a large part, durable goods new orders fell by -0.1%.  Shipments increased by 0.2% and are at a record high level.  

 

Durable Goods 4.2% Headline Increase Belies Bad News

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 4.2% for June 2013.  While the headline number sounds great, not so fast, the gains are on volatile aircraft new orders.  Shipments did not change.   Aircraft and parts new orders from the non-defense sector increased 31.4%.  Aircraft & parts from the defense sector increased 18.7%.   Excluding all transportation, which includes aircraft, new orders came in at zero.  In other words, without transportation new orders didn't grow at all.

Durable Goods up 3.3%, yet, not the Great Wunderful for April 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.3% for April 2013.  Wall Street soars, yet the gains are on volatile aircraft new orders.   Aircraft and parts new orders from the non-defense sector increased 18.1% and jumped 53.3% from the defense sector.   Excluding all transportation, new orders rose 1.3%.   Core capital goods new orders increased 1.2%.

 

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