The June 2010 monthly unemployment figures are out. The unemployment rate decreased to 9.5% and the total jobs lost were -125,000. 225,000 temporary government Census jobs were lost and private sector jobs increased 83,000. Minus the Census jobs, total jobs created was 100,000. 79,000 permanent jobs were created in June 2010.
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 in June, and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflected a decrease (-225,000) in the number of temporary employees working on Census 2010. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 83,000.
Below is the nonfarm payroll, seasonally adjusted:
The civilian labor force participation rate dropped -0.3% in June to 64.7%. The employment to population ratio dropped -0.2% to 58.5%.
That means there are more employed people to the civilian non-institutional population, as a ratio, than last month (see graph below), which reduces the unemployment rate, but doesn't erase the people now destitute and not being counted.
Those not in the labor force increased by 842,000. The civilian labor force decreased by -652,000. Of those in the civilian labor force, employed, dropped -301,000 in May, yet those unemployed dropped -350,000. This explains the overall drop in the unemployment rate, people simply dropped out of the count beyond the end of the temporary Census jobs.
Of those unemployed the number of re-entrants, or people trying again, dropped -145,000. New entrants into the job market who don't have a job dropped -66,000.
- Long term unemployed - 6.8 million
- Forced Part Time - 8.6 million
- Marginally attached to the labor force - 2.6 million
Of the Marginally attached, 1.2 million are discouraged.
U6, or Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, (table A.15), was 16.5%. Then 45.5% of the official unemployed have been so for 27 weeks or longer, which is horrific, still approaching half.
One needs at least 100,000 and some estimate up to 300,000 permanent full time jobs, added each month to keep pace with U.S. civilian workforce population growth. That's not general population, that's the group needing a job. To even get back to pre-recession unemployment rate levels we need a good 400,000 jobs created each month. That's permanent jobs.
So, how did the unemployment rate tick down? Because more people stopped being counted. Below is the graph of the civilian non-institutional population, which is the largest super-set of the potential labor force, larger than the civilian workforce, due to those who are not looking for work, retired and so on being counted in this figure. It increased this month by 191,000. Unemployment is a percentage, a ratio.
In looking over table B1 we can get a little more detail on what kind of jobs were created (and lost) on the permanent jobs front. These sectors include temporary jobs.
- Financial: -15,000
- Information: -8,000
- Construction: -22,000
- Manufacturing: +9,000
- Mining & Logging: +5,000
- Health and Education: +22,000
- Leisure and Hospitality: +37,000
- Professional & Business Services: +46,000
- Trade, Transportation, Utilities: +7,000
- Government: -208,000
In Professional services, 21,000 jobs were temporary. There are still 339,000 temporary Census jobs bumping up artificially the non-farm payroll numbers. These jobs end sometime around September.
Construction now has a 20.1% unemployment rate.
You probably also want to know the birth/death model. What is that? It's a statistical adjustment to compensate for new businesses and dead businesses who are not actually tallied by data reports. Those jobs created and died outside the statistical reporting time window due to lag. So, the BLS estimates how many jobs can be attributed to those firms which are not actually counted. This month's adjustment was 147,000 jobs. Now one cannot directly subtract the birth/deal model monthly numbers, because unemployment data is seasonally adjusted, yet the birth/death adjustment is not seasonally adjusted, get that? Anywho, jobs attributed to new and dead businesses are just an estimate in so many words.
Notice this report does deviate from the ADP report of +13,000 private sector jobs vs. the BLS +83,000.
The average work week flat lined, an decrease of 0.1 hr. to 34.1 hrs/wk. Average earnings (drum roll please), decreased 2¢.
Here is last month's report. The BLS is reporting revisions to both April and May non-farm payrolls:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +290,000 to +313,000, and the change for May was revised from +431,000 to +433,000.