Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024

A brief excerpt:

On Wednesday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
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Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up about the same YoY in the February Case-Shiller index. The NAR reported median prices were up 5.7% YoY in February, up from 4.9% YoY in January. ICE reported prices were up 5.7% YoY in February, down from 5.8% YoY in January, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 5.9% YoY in February, down from 6.2% YoY in January.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will likely be about the same YoY in February as in January.

Price increases have slowed! Over the last 3 months, this FMHPI has only increased at a 1.7% annual rate.

There is much more in the article.

From BofA:

Since our update last week, 1Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to 1.9% q/q saar. [Apr 12th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.5% (qoq ar) and our Q1 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.6% (qoq ar). [Apr 10th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.4 percent on April 10, down from 2.5 percent on April 4. [April 10th estimate]

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 April

U.S. hotel performance showed mixed results from the previous week but positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 April. ...

31 March through 6 April 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 64.1% (+4.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.96 (+2.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$100.59 (+6.9%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and also at the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will move mostly sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.