US NatGas Poised For Biggest Weekly Spike On Record As "Blizzard Of '96" Fears Resurface

U.S. natural gas futures are on pace for the largest weekly increase on record, according to Bloomberg data spanning more than 35 years.

An Arctic air invasion of the eastern half of the US, combined with the increasing risk of a major winter storm stretching from Texas through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast by this weekend, has triggered sharp upside repricing and panic-style buying in NatGas futures.

As of Wednesday morning, New York NatGas futures are up another 19%. Combined with earlier gains this week, prices have jumped roughly 50% so far. If these gains are sustained through Friday, it would mark the largest weekly increase in NatGas on record, going back to 1990.

The sharp repricing of NatGas futures nearly sent prices to the $5 level earlier in the trading session.

We have documented the incoming cold blast and winter storm threats, with impacts on energy markets in the last five days:

• This Could Be The Big One

• NatGas Futs Erupt As Arctic Air Invasion Penetrates Deep Into US South

• US NatGas Spikes Most Since Ukraine Invasion On Arctic Blast, Major Winter Storm Threat

Ranald Falconer, a derivatives trader at Goldman, provided clients with more color on what could be a historic cold blast for the eastern half of the Lower 48:

Henry Hub on an absolute tear overnight! Front natural gas contracts hit a $4.95 high overnight, peaking just before the London open. The over-riding story here has not changed a great deal, as I mentioned yesterday when looking at Europe, cold weather fronts have been pushed deeper into Jan, and now Feb.

That draw on gas for heating has obviously pushed flat price in Q1 higher, and with it we have seen shorts get stopped out. That isn’t new; I mentioned some sizable Feb/Mar shorts being bought back end of last week, and yesterday similar in TTF. Overnight though, that is one heck of a move! If that is flat price stops in Feb and Mar, it is a strange time of day to put that sort of volume through the screens. I have Feb and Mar trading 3.5x and 4.0x their normal daily accumulated volume at this point.

This note is slightly later than I would have been able to bash it out, but I have had about 6 or 7 separate conversations on the topic with people a lot smarter in the gas world than me. Most poignant comment was that they had not seen such a dramatic change in the weather runs.

The NOAA chart below is probably the most simplistic way to visualise this without going into the weeds on the vortex and disruption there. Simply put, a strong high pressure area over Northern Canada is stretching the vortex north to south, which displaces the vortex core and causes northerly flow over the Eastern States.

I don’t think I have ever seen that shade of blue on the short term forecasts on NOAA, not sure I would want to be in New York over the next week.

Alongside the cold temperatures, NOAA forecasts frigid cold air to be accompanied by gusty winds taking the wind chill factor into play too. The kicker to the Jan balmo is that these forecasts now stretch into Feb; note that the Euro Weekly data had Feb at max warm in early Feb not that long ago.

With this spike we will be pricing in LNG shut-in too as export facilities continue to pull feed gas from domestic production, this may now be required for HHDs.

Fundamentally, there has been no disruption that I can see or read, so this is all weather and a severe volume move overnight. It will be interesting to see how positioning in Q2 stacks up as we move into spring forecasts.

The latest models from private weather forecaster BAMWX of the upcoming storm have some of us reminiscing about the January 1996 blizzard that blanketed the Washington, DC, region with feet of snow...

The January 1996 blizzard:

Stay warm! Prepare.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 08:45

The post Patent Applications Drop 9.0 Percent in 2025: Not Good News appeared first on CEPR.

World Cup Lift: Goldman Forecasts Retailers' Potential Bounce From The 'Beautiful Game'

Believe it or not, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is just five months away, spanning 11 stadiums across 11 U.S. metro areas.

Expected foot traffic trends suggest meaningful pre-event demand for fan gear, such as jerseys, hats, and jackets, at nearby sporting goods retailers as the tournament kicks off in early June.

Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane told clients on Tuesday that Academy Sports and Outdoors and Dick's Sporting Goods stores near the FIFA World Cup will likely see a tick up in foot traffic.

"We found that ~14% of ASO stores are within 25 miles of the World Cup stadiums, compared to ~12% at DKS, while noting ASO has a relatively smaller store base concentrated in the Southeastern US," McShane said.

McShane explained:

ASO and DKS footprint analysis

There are 11 FIFA World Cup stadiums in the US, with locations consisting of Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Seattle. To assess the company footprint in each location, we looked at the number and percentage of stores within a 25-mile radius of each stadium using Placer. Additionally, to account for locals who might travel further to a stadium (versus tourists likely staying closer by), we also considered the company footprint within the CBSA (core-based statistical area) of each stadium. Of note, the store counts reflect locations available on Placer. For DKS, including both Dick's Sporting Goods and Dick's House of Sport, 11.8% of stores are within 25 miles of the stadiums, while 18.3% of stores are in the same CBSA as the stadiums. Looking to ASO, 13.6% of stores are within 25 miles of the stadiums, while 22.3% of stores are in the same CBSA as the stadiums. We would note that while the percentages are higher for ASO versus DKS, ASO's overall store footprint is smaller.

What could this mean for sales?

For ASO and DKS, we assume that stores within 25 miles of the World Cup stadiums see a +MSD sales lift in June and July, while the remainder of the fleet experiences a +LSD sales lift. For ASO, this could result in $15mn to $36mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~1.0% to 2.3% comp lift. Looking at DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods, House of Sport), this could result in $26mn to $65mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~0.7% to 1.8% comp lift. We are not including any uplift in comp from the possible uptick in team sports we could see at the end of Q2 into early Q3 if more people are inspired to play soccer as a result of the World Cup event.

What could this mean for sales?

For ASO and DKS, we assume that stores within 25 miles of the World Cup stadiums see a +MSD sales lift in June and July, while the remainder of the fleet experiences a +LSD sales lift. For ASO, this could result in $15mn to $36mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~1.0% to 2.3% comp lift. Looking at DKS (Dick’s Sporting Goods, House of Sport), this could result in $26mn to $65mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~0.7% to 1.8% comp lift. We are not including any uplift in comp from the possible uptick in team sports we could see at the end of Q2 into early Q3 if more people are inspired to play soccer as a result of the World Cup event.

Company commentary

ASO expects to see a material impact from the World Cup in 2Q, specifically in June and July, noting the company has 40+ games in its markets, and 20% of ASO's customers are Hispanic. That said, ASO cannot quantify the exact impact from the upcoming World Cup as its business was different the last time this happened. Per management, the question is how long the impact lasts and if you see an uptick in youth soccer, which they believe is likely. ASO noted that soccer balls and jerseys are selling now, while more soccer accessories are expected to be sold in the spring, and additional items with logos as you get closer to the games. The company expects to have the World Cup as a focus in the portion of stores that they frequently turn over for four weeks in June and July, noting that this will likely impact the sports & recreation and apparel categories, without a massive jump in cleats.

At a recent conference, DKS management stated that the World Cup will the biggest sports moment the country has ever had, noting that World Cup balls are selling well, along with license in general. Per management, DKS expects to see increased demand around the event, noting it is leaning into license with a prominent offering that is regionally relevant. Longer term, DKS also mentioned a potential tailwind in soccer participation trends

The current World Cup assortment online

DKS and ASO both have started to incorporate World Cup assortment into their stores, spanning across a wide range of categories such as apparel, footwear, and soccer balls. We note that for both companies, the assortment is not directly on their homepages and is listed under the "Fan Shop" segments - consumers have to be proactively shopping for the World Cup to find the assortment.

McShane's full note can be found in the usual place for ZeroHedge Pro Subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 06:55

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

• The brunt of US tariffs — 96% — has been paid by US buyers: A Kiel Institute study found US tariffs are mostly paid by American importers and consumers. The study found foreign exporters paid only around 4% of the tariff cost. The research contradicts Trump’s messaging that Americans aren’t paying for tariffs. (Yahoo)

• Andreessen Horowitz Makes a $3 Billion Bet: That There’s No AI Bubble A newer fund run by an unconventional team at the venture firm is finding success focusing on infrastructure. (Bloomberg) see also Move Over, ChatGPT: You are about to hear a lot more about Claude Code. (The Atlantic)

• How Europe Could ‘Weaponize’ $10 Trillion of US Assets Over Greenland: European countries hold US bonds and stocks, fueling speculation they could sell such assets in response to Trump’s renewed tariff war. Any weaponization of European holdings of US assets would represent a severe escalation, expanding a simmering trade war into a financial conflict that directly impacts capital markets. (Bloomberg free)

• Shifting Tides in Global Markets: The Reemergence of International Investing. After more than a decade of US market dominance, 2025 may have marked a turning point for global investors. International equities have surged ahead of their US counterparts, evidenced by strong earnings growth and supported by policy reform momentum and a reassessment of “American exceptionalism.” (CFA Institute)

• Zero-Sum Economics Keeps Failing: The world is not a lump of “resources.” (Noahpinion)

• Rich people are leaving California, inspired by tech founders’ online campaign: The campaign against a proposed billionaire tax was sparked by industry leaders that have long bashed San Francisco. It has consumed the tech world, and it’s driving some of the state’s richest residents to relocate. (Washington Post)

• Trump’s Tumultuous Year Pushing the Limits of Presidential Power: If you had to name a single thing Donald Trump has said that captures his tumultuous first year back in the White House, it might be this: “I have the right to do anything I want to do. I’m the president of the United States.” (Bloomberg) see also How Trump Has Pocketed $1,408,500,000: One year ago, Donald Trump took an oath to serve the American people. Instead, he has focused on using the presidency to enrich himself. (New York Times)

• Photos Capture the Breathtaking Scale of China’s Wind and Solar Buildout: Last year China installed more than half of all wind and solar added globally. In May alone, it added enough renewable energy to power Poland, installing solar panels at a rate of roughly 100 every second. (Yale Environment 360)

• I Want To Buy A Manual Before I Can’t Anymore! What Car Should I Buy Vineeth lives in Chicago and loves to drive. He grew up overseas and spent most of his life shifting his own gears. Once he came to the states he bought “practical” cars, but he wants to get something fun with three pedals before they all go extinct. With a budget up to $40,000, what car should he buy? (Jalopnik)

• Even More Very Good Music Facts: The title of Tears for Fears’ “Everybody Wants to Rule the World” was taken from a line in The Clash’s “Charlie Don’t Surf.” “Charlie Don’t Surf” was taken from a line in “Apocalypse Now.” “Apocalypse Now” was based on Joseph Conrad’s “Heart of Darkness.” (Go Jeff Go)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Nobel laureate Richard Thaler and his University of Chicago Booth School colleague Alex Imas on the update and reissue of his classic book The Winner’s Curse.

 

Solar met 61% of US electricity demand growth in 2025

Source: Ember

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Despite Mass Protests, UK Approves Controversial Chinese Mega-Embassy In London

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Despite a weekend protest, the UK has approved plans for a new, significantly expanded Chinese embassy in central London, ending a planning dispute and overriding objections from local authorities and lawmakers who raised national security concerns.

An exterior view of the proposed site for the new Chinese Embassy, near Tower Bridge in London on June 23, 2023. Hannah McKay/Reuters

The Chinese communist regime purchased the Royal Mint Court site in 2018 and plans to convert it into a much larger embassy than its existing building in London. The site is located in the City of London, the capital’s financial district.

Tower Hamlets Council rejected China’s initial planning application in 2022, citing concerns about security, scale, and local impact. A revised application was submitted in July 2024, shortly after the Labour Party entered government.

The site for the proposed embassy lies close to major data cables and financial infrastructure that underpin the UK’s banking and communications systems, a factor that featured heavily in parliamentary objections

Approval was granted on Jan. 20 by Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government Steve Reed.

The UK’s domestic and foreign intelligence agencies said security risks linked to the new embassy could not be fully eliminated, but could be managed through mitigation measures.

In a joint letter to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, MI5 Director General Ken McCallum and GCHQ’s Director Anne Keast-Butler said it was “not realistic to expect to be able wholly to eliminate each and every potential risk.”

The intelligence chiefs added that the work to develop a package of national security mitigations for the Royal Mint Court site had been proportionate.

Reed said in a Jan. 20 statement that the decision is final unless overturned by a court challenge. He said the approval was based on the recommendation of an independent planning inspector who held a public inquiry between Feb. 11 and Feb. 19, 2025.

Political Backlash

Opposition lawmakers from across the political spectrum criticized the approval.

Shadow Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government James Cleverly from the Conservative Party described it as “a disgraceful act.”

The Conservative Party’s shadow secretary of state for culture, media and sport, Nigel Huddleston, said in a Jan. 20 post on X that there were multiple reasons to oppose the project, including heritage concerns, citing historical sites the new embassy will sit atop, including the Royal Mint and a medieval Cistercian abbey.

The Liberal Democrats said on Jan. 20 that allowing the embassy to proceed was Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s biggest mistake yet. The party’s foreign affairs spokesman, Calum Miller, said the decision “will amplify China’s surveillance efforts here in the UK and endanger the security of our data.”

Protesters outside a proposed site for a new Chinese Embassy in London on Jan. 17, 2026. Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

A Reform UK spokesman said the decision to grant the new Chinese embassy planning permission “represents a serious threat to national security.”

Baroness Kennedy of the Shaws, a co-chair of the cross-party Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, said British lawmakers should take a firmer stance toward Beijing.

“Whilst British parliamentarians, like myself, remain unjustly sanctioned and British citizen Jimmy Lai remains imprisoned on political charges, the UK must take a principled stand,” she said. “We cannot reinforce the dangerous notion that Britain will continue to make concessions – such as granting a mega-embassy – without reciprocity or regard for the rule of law.”

A UK government spokesperson said on Jan. 20 that intelligence agencies had been involved throughout the process and that national security remained the top priority.

“This planning decision has been taken independently by the Secretary of State for Housing,” the spokesperson said. “This follows a process that began in 2018 when the then foreign secretary provided formal diplomatic consent for the site.”

The spokesperson said embassy construction was a normal feature of international relations.

“National security is our first duty,” they said, adding that “an extensive range of measures have been developed to manage any risks.”

The spokesperson also said China had agreed to consolidate seven existing diplomatic sites in London into one location, which the government said would provide “clear security advantages.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 06:30

De Beers Cuts Diamond Prices, Botswana Warns Of Prolonged Slump

De Beers, the world's largest diamond mining company, has warned of a prolonged downturn in the gem industry after cutting prices for the first time since 2024. Botswana is the epicenter of De Beers' diamond production, and declining output alongside falling prices is set to put significant pressure on the southern African nation's finances.

On Monday, Bloomberg News reported that De Beers cut its diamond prices for the first time in over a year, abandoning efforts to prop up the market amid faltering demand.

A combination of soft Chinese luxury spending, expanding market share for lab-grown stones, and added pressure from US tariffs on India has pressured the world's largest diamond exporter.

The Diamond Standard Index, a benchmark price measure for investment-grade natural diamonds, has fallen by more than half since peaking in early 2022. The index is now at a record low, with data going back to 2002.

As for Botswana, the Finance Ministry warned that diamond income could fall to 10.3 billion pula ($744 million) in FY2025-26, less than half the historical average of 25.3 billion pula, and that revenues may never fully recover.

"The recovery in mineral revenue is expected to be prolonged," the Finance Ministry wrote in a report ahead of the annual budget next month. "The shortfall is likely to persist over the medium to long term with a possibility of a non-recovery."

Bloomberg wasn't clear about the size of the price discount De Beers offered buyers for diamonds.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 05:45

"Rich Kids Of Iran" Flee To Turkish Nightclubs Amid Deadly Crackdown On Protesters: Report

The children of Iran's political and military elite are back in the spotlight for their opulent lifestyles amid reports that they fled the country to party in Turkish nightclubs, even as the regime's security forces carry out its deadliest crackdown on nationwide protests in years, the New York Post reports.

Anashid Hoseini, a model and designer, is married to the son of Iran’s ambassador to Denmark. They are considered part of the aghazadeh, or children of the elite

The phenomenon of Iran's affluent youth first drew international attention more than a decade ago through the Instagram account @richkidsoftehran (now with approximately 477,000 followers), which features eyebrow-raising posts of luxury cars such, watches, and designer gear.

Among the most infamous “Rich Kids of Iran" is Sasha Sobhani, the son of a former Iranian ambassador to Venezuela, who relocated to Spain in 2019 and has posted videos of his Lamborghini and other vehicles.

Sasha Sobhani, the son of a former Iranian ambassador to Venezuela, became a social media star showing off his expat life in Spain, where he moved in 2019. Instagram/sasha_sohbani

Another account belongs to Anashid Hoseini, who is married to the son of Iran's former ambassador to Denmark and whose Instagram account with over 1.7 million followers regularly displays expensive bling and designer handbags.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by Anashid Hoseini (@anashidhoseini)

The New York Post reports:

Amid an enforced internet blackout that allows an oppressive regime to commit “genocide under the cover of digital darkness,” according to one outraged expert, reporters from The Telegraph are said to have observed “rich Iranians” partying at a nightclub in a popular holiday hotspot on the border with Turkey.

And as the Telegraph reports:

The province of Van, in far-eastern Turkey, shares a mountainous border with Iran, making it a popular holiday destination for Iranians looking to party.

Despite the chaos at home – where more than two weeks of protests had been halted by deadly force and a total communications blackout – The Telegraph witnessed elite Iranians gathering to drink, socialise and party in Van city.

Locals said that in recent days, wealthy Iranians – some said to support the Islamic regime – had arrived in Turkey to escape the political instability, fearing the protesters might turn on them as well.

"They left Iran for now because they were worried about staying there. Here, they can feel safe. They have made a lot of money from their businesses in Iran, and then they come here to spend it," one Iranian said of the partygoers. 

"Imagine if, in your country, thousands of people had been killed. Would you have the heart to go out dancing in a bar?" another Iranian told the outlet. 

The renewed attention on Iran’s showdy elites has come into focus as Iranian authorities have now acknowledged that it’s brutal crackdown on protesters have resulted in significant casualties.

In a public address, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conceded that "several thousand" Iranians died in the violence, which he unsurprisingly attributed to foreign-backed "rioters" and "terrorists" incited by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

An unnamed Iranian official cited by Reuters estimated the verified death toll at least 5,000, including roughly 500 security personnel. Independent monitoring groups face challenges due to a near-total internet blackout, but the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has confirmed more than 3,900 deaths, while other activist and medical sources inside Iran have cited figures ranging from 12,000 to 20,000 protester fatalities, according to CBS News.

Trump has repeatedly condemned the crackdown, urging protesters to continue their efforts and stating that "help is on its way.” The president has warned Tehran of "very strong action"—potentially including military measures—should executions of detained protesters proceed or the violence persist. The White House has said that all options remain under consideration, though to the eternal chagrin of warmongers like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), recent assessments suggest a possible deescalation.

Will the Telegraph cover 'rich kids of Israel' partying it up while bombs drop on Gaza?

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 04:15

German Chancellor Merz Admits Shutting Down Nuclear Energy Production Was A "Severe Strategic Mistake"

Via The Last Refuge,

Germany has a severe electricity shortage and cost problem, and it’s getting worse.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently made the admission that shutting down the German nuclear power reactors was a “severe strategic mistake.”

“To have acceptable market prices for energy production again, we would have to permanently subsidize energy prices from the federal budget,” Merz said, adding:

“We can’t do this in the long run.”

“So, we are now undertaking the most expensive energy transition in the entire world,” Merz said with pronounced frustration.

“I know of no other country that makes things so expensive and difficult as Germany.”

Merz’s government aims to solicit bids to build 8 gigawatts of new gas-fired power plants this year with the goal of having them online by 2031.

Another 4 gigawatts of capacity are foreseen for lower-carbon energy sources or gas plants that can switch to hydrogen more quickly.

Merz said on industry power price cuts that “the European Commission will also approve the combination of several options.”

Keep in mind, Germany represents the largest contributing economy in the European Union. 

The German industrial sector is the backbone of the European economic model.

All of these realities paint a very tenuous picture for the economic future in Europe, when combined with a new trade relationship with the USA, increasingly cheap goods dumped into the EU by China and the EU promising to continue spending on the war effort in Ukraine against Russia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 03:30

"Naive To Think We’re Not At War": Latvia's Central Banker Warns Europe On Russia

Latvia's central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, has warned European leaders against downplaying the danger posed by Russia, describing in a fresh interview the European Union is already "at war" with Moscow and must be ready for further escalation, particularly in its financial systems.

This is raising eyebrows at the Kremlin, but many Russian officials might actually agree with this grim assessment: "It's naive to think that we are not at war" with Russia, Kazaks told the Financial Times.

Governor of the Bank of Latvia, Martins Kazaks

He cited as examples of an active war situation the ongoing cyberattacks on Europe, alleged acts of sabotage targeting infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, as well as drone violations of Danish and other EU airspace - the latter which has involved plenty of speculation and accusations leveled among EU officials, but no final or clear proof of links to Russia or its intelligence services.

Kazaks acknowledged that as of yet, the conflict connected to Ukraine is not being fought directly on EU soil, but he stressed "we need to be resilient to deal with that."

In response, Latvia’s central bank has intensified contingency planning in recent years, prioritizing uninterrupted access to cash and digital payments during emergencies and the ability to carry out offline card transactions for essential purchases. On this Kazāks emphasized, "We are in many cases best in the class."

He further cautioned that an armed conflict involving a eurozone member could trigger "financial stability issues" - but ironically he claimed that more and constant European/NATO support to Kiev would make these risks "marginal", also as the EU has newly sought to greatly bolster its own defensive capabilities.

This is in line with his own government's consistently hawkish anti-Moscow stance, along with the other tiny (but loud) Baltic and former Soviet satellite states.

We can say at the very least that Russia-NATO proxy war has been in full swing for quite a while now. As a reminder, the world just reached the following tragic milestone:

Russia’s full-fledged war against Ukraine has already lasted longer than the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany in World War II—as discussed in Steve Gutterman’s RFE/RL. “None of the conditions for a final resolution of the conflict are in place,” Ruth Deyermond of King’s College London told Gutterman for his analysis entitled "Will Russia's War Against Ukraine End In 2026?" Deyermond believes neither Ukraine nor Russia are “in a position to achieve a conclusive victory on the battlefield” or to collapse under pressure. According to Deyermond, the main obstacle to peace is Moscow’s stance: “Russia… seems to have no interest in an end to the fighting, let alone the war,” she says, while CSIS analyst Mark Cancian argues the Russians’ “stated goals are totally unacceptable” and their intransigence “stems from their belief that they are winning.” At best, a cease-fire or “temporarily frozen conflict” is possible so long as Putin’s presidency remains tied to the war, according to Crisis Group’s Olga Oliker.

But the above doesn't address the other pressing question: can Ukraine and its dwindling and fatigued armed forces last? While the West believes it is weakening Russia, there is little doubt that Ukraine is being fast drained and weakened to the brink of collapse. It is being propped up by the Western powers, financially, militarily, and really on almost every level.

For example, on the pressing issue of the country's collapsing power infrastructure, regional media warns amid rolling blackouts, power outages could begin to last over 16 hours a day under newly proposed emergency schedules. The country can't get parts fast enough to replace damaged substations, and this is an area where no amount of external support can keep up, ultimately.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 02:45

Ukraine Is Defending Itself With Money Europe Doesn't Have

Authored by Ian Proud,

The ugly truth is that an end of the Ukraine war may have as devastating economic and political consequences for Europe as its continuance...

Ukraine already faces a $63 billion U.S. dollar funding shortfall in 2026 and I would be surprised if this figure doesn’t increase if the war continues. Ukraine’s massive fiscal splurge is driven by two factors

• The enormous cost of maintaining a standing army of almost one million people;

• The vast expense of importing weapons from the west to fight the war.

Weapon purchases are not sources of productive investment as they are literally burned in the heat of battle.

The same, of course, is true for Russia.

Both countries saw reducing economic growth in 2025, with Ukraine’s at 2.1% and 1.5%.

And, western pundits would point to this as evidence that Ukraine’s economy is performing better.

But the opposite is true.

Russia’s economy is around twelve times larger than Ukraine’s nominally and just over ten times larger when you look at GDP using purchasing power parity.

You can see this in the defence spending numbers.

Russia spent a record $143 billion on defence in 2025 compared to around $60 billion for Ukraine, so around 2.3 times higher. Yet, Russian defence spending amounted to just 6.3% of its GDP whereas for Ukraine it was 31.7%. So, massive spending on defence is a much less pivotal issue for Russia in terms of its economic fortunes.

Defence spending represents a far smaller proportion of total economic activity than it does for Ukraine. And Russia can afford to pay for its defence needs with its own finances, while Ukraine is entirely dependent on money from western donors to keep the war going.

Despite the massive cost of war, Russia ran a fiscal deficit of just 1.7% of GDP in 2025.

That is still well below the EU fiscal rule of 3% of GDP with some countries like France and Poland having deficits at or more than double that figure.

Ukraine’s fiscal deficit on the other hand was around 20% of GDP.

That gap had to be filled by foreign funding as it has debt of 107% of GDP and is cut off from foreign lending.

So, hence the EU stepping up with a loan of 90 billion Euros, two thirds of which is earmarked for defence.

Russia on the other hand has debt of around 15% of GDP and doesn’t really need to borrow heavily to keep its war effort afloat. By the way, 15% of GDP is far lower than the U.S. or any European nation, many of which, like Ukraine, have debt levels of over 100% of GDP.

Ukraine is defending itself with money Europe doesn’t have.

Despite the shock of sanctions, Russia doesn’t have to break the bank nor boost its lending significantly.

This also means that when the war eventually ends, Russia will be able to make the economic transition back to peace in a less painless way.

Russia will be under no pressure to impose massive cuts to defence spending to live within its means and can instead do so gradually.

Ukraine on the other hand faces a massive financial cliff edge when the war ends.

Ukrainian economic growth according to the OECD is set to fall further to 1.7% in 2027 if the war continues.

And that assumes continued large injections of capital from outside countries. In 2025, Ukrainian defence spending made up 31.1% of Ukrainian GDP, and two thirds of state budgetary expenditure. None of that spending goes into improving Ukraine’s weak economy.

With all of the support that it receives, Ukraine’s GDP in 2025 amounted to just under $210 billion according to the IMF.

Bear in mind here that Ukraine received $52.4 billion in external financing in 2025, or around one quarter of its GDP at the end of the year.

Take away foreign funding and Ukraine suddenly sees its economy shrink by over 20%.

Or, put it another way, take away the war and Ukraine sees its economy shrink by over 20%.

Russia simply does not face the same problem.

Rather, an end to the war may help Russia to get inflation – perhaps its biggest economic challenge – under control as economic activity returns to its normal rhythm.

But still the question arises, how come Ukraine has grown so little when it received so much foreign funding?

One big reason is that Ukraine recorded a trade deficit of $30 billion over the same period, a record according to the National Bank of Ukraine.

So, $52 billion in foreign money came into Ukraine during the year and $30 billion went straight back out again.

Because Ukraine’s massive trade deficit is fuelled by two things.

• First, a huge increase in the import of weapons from western suppliers which have doubled since 2022, not least as they are no longer being provided free of charge.

• Second, Ukraine has increased its imports of natural resources, in particular a massive increase in gas imports, because domestic production has been hit hard by the war. Coal is another area, as Russia has swallowed up important coal mines in the Donbas.

Not all of that deficit in trade will be recoverable even after the war ends, even if Ukraine was able to reduce the overall size of its trade deficit.

By comparison, Russia’s surplus of trade in goods was already at over $100 billion by October 2025, although the overall trade picture is narrower, at around $36 billion because of a significant deficit in services trade, including from large numbers of Russians who have moved overseas since the war started.

An end to the war, if anything, may allow Russia’s trade surpluses to grow further. A future relaxation on the import of natural resources into Europe could mean that Russia benefited from already increased trade with Asia and renewed trade with Europe.

In any case, the consistent surpluses that Russia pulls in both help shore up economic growth and foreign exchange reserves, which in 2025 grew by over $135 billion to a whopping $734 billion.

And just to be clear, Russia put their reserve funds almost completely into gold which now stand at over $310 billion.

One big reason for Russia storing its reserves in gold is to keep them clear of the stealing hands of western bureaucrats, who froze around $300 billion in reserves at the start of the war.

This means that Russia has a surplus of $434 billion in foreign exchange reserves which is almost completely insulated from western expropriation. The $10 billion rise in foreign currency reserves in 2025 was undoubtedly caused by an accumulation of reserves in non-dollar, Euro and sterling currencies, suggesting the move to greater trade in Chinese Yuan and Indian rupees.

An end to the war may at some point lead to the unfreezing of immobilised Russian assets in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

Ukraine’s reserve position is also comparatively strong, at $57.3 billion at the start of 2026, a record figure. However, that rise is completely down to inflows of foreign capital to fund the war effort. An end to the war would likely shrink Ukraine’s reserves as its stubborn trade deficit was not being offset by foreign inflows of funds as they had been during war.

But it’s the sudden and shocking loss of foreign funding that accompanies an end to the war which will cause Ukraine’s economy to shrink dramatically.

But fear not, Europe is determined that Ukraine maintain an army of 800,000 personnel when the war ends. However, this seems more about economic survival than about security.

Ukraine would not be able to pay for such as large army with its own money, as it doesn’t have any money. So, once again, Europe will be forced to step in to meet Ukraine’s financing needs to pay the salaries of soldiers who are no longer in war fighting mode.

This will lead to debt and taxes rising in Europe, according to a recent Kiel Institute study. But it will also lead to a loss of business for European defence firms. Because peace time will inevitably mean a sharp drop in the munitions and military material being burned on a daily basis in the fog of war.

Two thirds of the EU’s recently 90 billion Euro loan to Ukraine will be spent on military support, including weaponry. That has sparked an argument between Germany and France over a proposed ‘buy European’ clause, with France wanting to prevent Ukrainian purchases of U.S. equipment. Perhaps with one eye on the future, the French in typical fashion, are trying to ensure that their firms get a decent share of what could amount to dwindling Ukrainian orders for weapons.

A bit like the French army, Europe is reversing itself inevitably into economic defeat when the war ends.

Obligated to keep an economically failed Ukraine on life support.

Having to increase its debt and taxes to support bad foreign policy decisions it has been taking since 2014.

Trying to boost its defence industrial complex but losing business with the end of war.

For the mainstream political parties in Europe, this adds to the trend of them heading towards electoral Armageddon when they start putting themselves to the polls from 2027 onward.

Until then, they are stuck, knowing that continuing the war will kill them electorally, and knowing that ending the war will too.

To quote my old British soldier dad, they are like the mythical oozlum bird, continually going round in circles until they disappear up their own backsides.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 02:00

Escobar: Empire Of Chaos, Plunder, & Strikes In Panic Of Being Evicted From Eurasia

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The whole planet is somehow convulsed by neo-Caligula’s latest scam: because he did not get his “peace” Nobel from Norway, part of his megalomanic narcissist revenge is to bag Greenland from Denmark (in Empire-speak, who cares? These Scandinavians are all the same anyway).

In neo-Caligula’s own words: “The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland.”

That seals the Empire of Chaos completely morphed into the Empire of Plunder and now the Empire of Permanent Strikes.

Assorted Euro-chihuahuas dared to dispatch a tiny bunch of dog-sled conductors to defend Greenland from neo-Caligula. To no avail. They were instantly hit with tariffs. The strike remains in effect until the “complete and total purchase” of Greenland.

Euro-chihuahuas – following the Global South – may have finally woken up to the new paradigm: Strike Geopolitics.

Neo-Caligula did not get regime change in Caracas – and his oil mirage was refuted even by US energy majors. He did not get regime change in Tehran – even if CIA, Mossad and assorted NGOs worked full time to deliver.

So Plan C is Greenland, essential for imperial lebensraum purposes, as collateral for the unpayable $38 trillion – and rising – debt.

By all means that does not imply ditching the Iran obsession. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is moving into a position in the Sea of Oman/Persian Gulf where it would be able to strike Iran before the end of the week. All attack scenarios remain in place.

Assuming all hell breaks loose, this may become an even more humiliating replay of the 12-day war in June last year, which the death cult in West Asia spent as much as 14 months planning.

The 12-day war not only failed as a regime change op; it engendered a sample of Iranian retaliation so hardcore that Tel Aviv still has not recovered. Tehran has been explicit, over and over again, that the same fate awaits neo-Caligula’s forces in Iran and across the Gulf in case of renewed strikes.

Why the regime change obsession endures

As for the equally, miserably failed regime change op on Iran these past few weeks, it featured on the forefront the pathetic Clown Prince Reza Pahlavi, safely ensconced in Maryland, massively plugged by US media as a “unifying political figure” capable of reassessing the “lived catastrophe of clerical rule”.

Neo-Caligula was too busy to care about these ideological niceties. What he wanted was to accelerate the proceedings by – what else – applying Empire of Permanent Strikes logic: bombing Iran.

Diversionist spin, predictably, went ballistic. The death cult in West Asia may have asked Moscow to tell Tehran that they would not strike if Iran did not strike first. As if Tehran – and Moscow – could trust anything coming from Tel Aviv.

The Gulfie crowd – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman – may have asked neo-Caligula not to strike, because that would have set the whole Gulf on fire and generate “grave blowback”.

The real deal – once again – was TACO. There was simply no gamed US strike scenario that would have allowed lightning quick regime change, the only acceptable outcome. Thus back to bagging Greenland.

It took only a few days to unmask the massive propaganda campaign across NATOstan about “mass casualties” among Iran protesters.

The – fake – figures came from the Center for Human Rights in Iran, located in, where else, New York, and financed by the CIA-infested National Endowment for Democracy (NED) in Washington and other assorted disinformation entities.

The list of reasons for urgent regime change in Iran though remains off the charts, featuring, among others, these four key elements:

1. Tehran must ditch the Axis of Resistance across West Asia supporting Palestine.

2. Because Iran is at the privileged crossroads of trade/energy connectivity corridors in Eurasia, both its connections with the
   International North–South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) and China’s New Silk Roads (BRI) must be severed. That means blowing up from the inside organic intra-BRICS cooperation between Russia, Iran, India and China.

3. As over 90% of Iranian oil exports go to China – and are settled in yuan – that’s a serious threat to the petrodollar: the ultimate anathema. That’s where in Empire of Permanent Strikes terms, Iran aligns with Venezuela. It’s our – petrodollar – way or the highway.

4. The staying power of the never-ending dream of an Iran under the Shah remix – complete with a Shah-style SAVAK secret police; cozy Mossad ties to rein in those Arab barbarians; and a sprawling CIA-run net of surveillance hubs targeting both Russia and China.

How to counter a “regime-change war”

Tehran is not spooked by sanctions – as it has endured over 6,000 of them over four decades, designed to totally strangle its economy and even bring oil exports, in imperial terminology, down “to zero”.

Even under maximum pressure, Iran was capable of building the most extensive industrial base across West Asia; relentlessly invested in self-sufficiency and state of the art military hardware; joined the SCO in 2023 and BRICS in 2024; and for all practical purposes developed a top Global South knowledge economy.

Tsunamis of – digital – ink have been spent on why China has not properly helped Iran so far against imperial maximum pressure, for instance supporting Tehran against the speculative attacks on the rial. That would have cost Beijing almost nothing – compared to its level of foreign reserves.

The speculative attack on the rial was arguably the essential trigger of the protests across Iran. It’s essential to remember that hunger salaries were a key contributor to the collapse of Syria.

It’s up to Beijing to – diplomatically – answer this uncomfortable question. The spirit of BRICS Plus – call it Bandung 1955 Plus – may not survive when we all know this current world war is essentially about resources and finance, which need to be mobilized and properly deployed.

And that brings us to China’s leadership seriously evaluating whether it’s worth to remain a sort of larger version of Germany: embryonically self-centered; harboring fear; and fundamentally selfish in economic and financial terms. The – auspicious – alternative is for China to create sufficiently sized credit facilities within BRICS to an array of friendly nations.

Whatever happens next, it’s clear that the Empire of Permanent Strikes not only will remain “actively hostile” to a multipolar, multi-nodal world; the hostility will be marinated in a toxic sludge of anger and revenge, and subordinated to the ultimate, panic fear: the Empire’s slowly but surely, inexorable expulsion from Eurasia.

Cue to White House Special Representative Witkoff – the real estate Bismarck – enouncing the imperial diktats to Iran:

1. Stop enriching uranium. Out of the question,

2. Reduce missile stockpiles. Out of the question.

3. Reduce approximately 2000 kg of enriched nuclear material (3.67–60 %). That might be negotiated.

4. Stop supporting “regional proxies” – as in the Axis of Resistance. Out of the question.

Tehran will never bow down to the diktats. But even if it did, the – promised – imperial reward would be the lifting of sanctions (the US Congress will never do it) and a “return to the international community”. Iran is already part of the international community at the UN and inside BRICS, SCO and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), among other institutions.

So the neo-Caligula regime change obsession – in fact mirrored as a NATOstan obsession – will keep ruling. Tehran is not intimidated. Cue to the strategic advisor to Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mahdi Mohammadi:

“We know that we are facing a regime-change war in which the only way to achieve victory is to make credible the threat that, during the 12-day war, although it was ready, did not get the opportunity to be carried out: a geographically expansive war of attrition, focused on the Persian Gulf energy markets, on the basis of steadily increasing missile firepower, lasting at least several months.”

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 23:25

Watch: Creepy Guy Trains Crows For Months To Attack MAGA Hats

A man styling himself "biz_dave" on Threads claims to have orchestrated what can only be described as the Resistance's most feather-brained gambit yet: training crows to pilfer red baseball caps in service of opposing President Donald Trump. Naturally, this has elevated him to something approaching sainthood among the online Resistance.

Dave claimed that the operation involved conditioning a murder of crows - a term that has never seemed more apt - to recognize a feeding station and subsequently engage in aerial larceny against red headwear. The sad man's admirers have dubbed the result an "anti-MAGA flying army," a phrase that does more to explain the current state of progressive activism than any think-piece possibly could, the Daily Star reports.

Dave has meticulously chronicled his ornithological jihad on Threads, offering videos, photographs, and a veritable field manual for those inspired to conscript their own backyard fauna into the culture wars. He began with the fundamentals of corvid care: "The crows will eat lots of things, but I recommend sticking to peanuts, chicken scraps, mealworms, and dog kibble." One pictures him at the grocery store, carefully selecting provisions for his feathered shock troops.

View on Threads

 

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Dave confessed that the true obstacle was less philosophical than practical.

"Getting the crows to come regularly to the feeding place took the longest. That was about a 4-month endeavor," he claimed. Four months - roughly the length of time required to master a foreign language or complete a professional certification - devoted instead to establishing diplomatic relations with local scavengers. Following a reliable peanut subsidy and months of patient courtship, the birds apparently agreed to join the cause. "Once they were coming regularly, it was only about three months to get them to the hat removal stage," Dave said, according to the Daily Star.

As is customary with such internet crusades, the project eventually metastasized from quirky stunt into moral imperative. Dave solemnly declared his political awakening: "I tried to be centrist for a long time but I no longer believe that is a moral option." Centrism having been ruled out, training crows to harass strangers was evidently the next logical step.

Even Reddit - not typically a bastion of leftwing restraint - produced some skeptics.

"OK, so I love this for the people wearing those red hats, but this would absolutely not be good for the crows," one user noted.

Another observed: "I really don't like pulling wild animals into stupid human shit like this."

A third commenter offered a tactical suggestion with a certain elemental appeal: "Now train it to poop on the hat."

After attempting to jail and assassinate Trump, training crows is all the anti-MAGA crusaders have left.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 23:00

Australia Passes New Bills For Tougher Gun Control And Anti-Hate Speech Laws

Authored by Naziya Alvi Rahman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Australian Parliament has passed two new bills that will set up a national gun buyback scheme, and attempt to combat anti-Semitism and hate speech in response to the Bondi terror attack.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks at Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, on Jan. 19, 2026. Hilary Wardhaugh/Getty Images

In Australia’s lower house, the gun buyback bill passed 96 to 45 with the Liberal-National Coalition opposing, while the hate and extremism-focused bill passed with amendments, securing 116 votes to just seven.

Later on the evening of Jan. 20, both bills made it through the Senate.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wrote on X that the government was “standing against hate and strengthening” national security.

New Gun Buyback Passes Lower House After 3 Hours

The Combatting Antisemitism, Hate and Extremism (Firearms and Customs Laws) Bill 2026 introduces not only the national gun buyback scheme, but new restrictions around background checks, the sale of firearm types, and new offences relating to accessing information online about firearms, ammunition, and accessories.

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke told parliament that had such measures been in place earlier, the Bondi Beach attackers would not have been able to legally obtain weapons.

The father of the terrorist duo, Sajid Akram, owned six firearms, despite his son being interviewed and cleared by intelligence agencies over concerns of radicalisation.

The bill was debated for close to three hours, with several MPs proposing amendments.

Independent MP Zali Steggall sought to ensure firearms background checks explicitly included “criminal history or proceedings relating to domestic violence or AVOs issued in local courts.”

Bob Katter, the federal MP of Kennedy, moved an amendment that would automatically revoke a firearm licence for anyone placed on an ASIO watchlist. That amendment was defeated, 88 votes to 13.

Katter, who opposed the broader reforms, blamed the Bondi attack on failures in the immigration system and argued the legislation undermined gun ownership.

“If they get their way, then the only people that will have guns are the people in uniforms. And we know what sort of society that is, that the only people that have guns are the people in uniforms,” he said.

Member for Kennedy Bob Katter speaks to the media at Parliament House in Canberra, Australia on Jan. 20, 2026. Hilary Wardhaugh/Getty Images Nationals Leader Warns Gun Control a Diversion From Real Issue

Nationals leader David Littleproud opposed the bill, describing it as a diversion.

“This is nothing more than a cheap political diversion, a cheap political diversion that is not facing up to the real problem in this country, which is radical Islamists,” Littleproud said.

He argued the Bondi attack reflected failures in enforcement rather than licensing.

“The fact is, the authorities did not act and take away the licence and the weapons as they should have,” he said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese defended the reforms, stressing they were not aimed at lawful firearm owners.

“This legislation is not about targeting farmers. It’s not about competitive shooters. It’s not about ... law-abiding firearm owners,” he said.

“The federal bill will establish a national gun buyback scheme to purchase surplus, newly banned and illegal firearms. The gun buybacks scheme is based on the same scheme that was introduced under John Howard, Tim Fischer and Kim Beazley, three leaders who all stood up at an important moment for Australia.”

Victims Only Need to Feel Fear Under New Hate Laws

The Combatting Antisemitism, Hate and Extremism (Criminal and Migration Laws) Bill 2026 also passed with amendments from the opposition.

The legislation introduces a new federal offence making it illegal to publicly promote or incite racial hatred where the conduct would cause a reasonable person to feel intimidated, harassed or fearful of violence.

The offence applies to speech, symbols, gestures and online communication targeting people “because of the race, colour or national or ethnic origin of the target.”

The law does not require proof that hatred was actually generated or that a victim felt fear—only that the conduct itself would reasonably cause intimidation or fear.

Maximum penalties of up to five years’ imprisonment apply, with higher penalties for aggravated offences, including cases involving religious officials or attempts to radicalise children. A narrow defence applies where speech or writing consists solely of quoting religious texts for teaching or discussion.

Opposition Leader Sussan Ley confirmed Liberal MPs supported the amended bill.

“In the national interest, the Liberal party has today stepped up to fix legislation that the Albanese government badly mishandled,” Ley said in a statement issued after passing of the bill.

Ley said the amendments narrowed the bill’s scope to anti-Semitism and Islamic extremism, ensured new powers focused on serious criminal conduct, and required consultation with the opposition before extremist organisations could be listed or de-listed.

Crossbench Concerns About Bill’s Scope and Speed

Independent Teal MP Allegra Spender criticised both major parties for removing anti-vilification provisions from the bill, saying those measures had been sought by Jewish community groups and the government’s anti-Semitism envoy.

“My question is, what are the mechanisms you are saying that we can use now because you have rejected something that the Jewish community has been calling for a long time,” she said.

Spender warned that the current law was not specific enough, arguing Muslim and other migrant groups could be made to feel “suspect by association by failing to confront hateful individuals and ideologies directly.”

Independent "Teal" Member for Wentworth Allegra Spender speaks in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra, Australia on Jan. 19, 2026. Hilary Wardhaugh/Getty Images

“We drift towards a culture of guilt by association rather than accountability,” she said.

Independent MP Helen Haines also raised concerns about the legislative process.

“The inquiry into this bill was only tabled this morning,” she said. “But the consequence of haste, as a legislator, is the missed opportunity to carefully consider and improve this significant legislation.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 22:35

US Antimony Strengthens Domestic Supply Chain With Montana Mill Purchase

United States Antimony Corporation announced this morning that it has completed the acquisition of a fully operational critical minerals flotation facility in Radersburg, Montana, strengthening the company’s domestic processing footprint for antimony and other strategic minerals. As a reminder and as we noted late last year, UAMY operates the only two antimony smelters in North America.

The company said it closed on the $4.75 million all-cash purchase of the property and equipment on January 16, 2026. The Radersburg facility, located between Helena and Bozeman, sits within roughly 250 miles of US Antimony’s Thompson Falls smelter, which is currently undergoing a major expansion and modernization that remains on track for completion and commissioning in February.

According to the company's press release, the Radersburg Mill is equipped with both gravity and flotation circuits, allowing it to concentrate a wide range of minerals, including stibnite, the primary ore mineral for antimony, as well as gold, silver, copper, tungsten, and other metals. The facility includes crushing and grinding circuits, slurry-based recovery systems, and tailings storage ponds with water recycling capabilities.

Gravity concentration equipment at the site has historically been used to produce high-grade gold concentrates, while the flotation circuits can be tailored with specific reagents to recover various metals. The company noted the mill has previously processed gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc, and could be adapted to concentrate cobalt, tungsten, platinum group metals, rare earth elements, and other critical minerals.

In addition to the purchase price, US Antimony has budgeted approximately $2 million for future capital improvements to enhance specific equipment at the facility.

Commenting on the acquisition, Chairman and CEO Gary C. Evans said the flotation mill is a necessary link in the company’s production chain. “In order for us to concentrate our raw ore from both Alaska and Montana, we must first utilize a modern flotation mill to properly concentrate the material to a high enough level that we can then feed the various furnaces located in our smelters in order to produce mil-spec antimony trisulfide,” Evans said.

He added that owning the Radersburg facility outright provides greater operational control compared with leasing. US Antimony previously leased a similar mill in Philipsburg, Montana, but canceled that lease in September 2025 after negotiations with the owners became difficult. “Making necessary capital improvements to a leased facility versus one that we control 100% made this an easy decision,” Evans said.

Evans described the acquisition as another step in reinforcing the company’s vertically integrated model. “This transaction announced today is another ‘leg on our stool’ as a fully integrated antimony company in order to maximize profitability, control our destiny, and meet the ever-growing needs of our customers whether they be industrial or the federal government,” he said.

United States Antimony announced in Q4 last year that it had received a $10 million delivery order under its newly signed indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity sole-source contract with the US Defense Logistics Agency. The order covered 315,000 lbs. of antimony metal ingots, which will be used to replenish the US National Defense Stockpile.

Antimony, a critical mineral which is used in munitions, batteries, flame retardants, and military-grade compounds, has been flagged by defense officials as a vulnerability in the U.S. industrial base.

The Trump administration has made domestic supply-chain resilience a policy priority. Trump has taken a series of executive and policy actions aimed at securing U.S. access to critical minerals, citing national security and economic independence.

Recall, last year we laid out all the winners in the coming critical mineral scramble in "The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How To Profit: All You Need To Know About The "Ex-China Supply Chain." Those who put on the recommended baskets are currently enjoying high double-digit gains. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 22:10

CBS Finally Airs Updated '60 Minutes' Report On US Deportations To Salvadoran Prison

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

CBS’s “60 Minutes” finally aired its report on the Trump administration’s deportations, more than a month after the segment was taken down from the program’s lineup.

Guards stand outside a cell block at the Center for Terrorism Confinement (CECOT) in Tecoluca, El Salvador, on April 4, 2025. Alex Peña/Getty Images

In the report, broadcast on Jan. 18, correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi examined deportees sent to El Salvador’s maximum-security prison, known by its Spanish acronym CECOT. It aired without any mention of the story having previously been pulled from its originally scheduled date, Dec. 21, 2025.

The unaired segment nevertheless appeared online a day after it was pulled. Global TV, which airs “60 Minutes” in Canada, briefly featured the piece on its app, apparently by mistake.

CBS News said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times that its leadership “has always been committed to airing the ‘60 Minutes’ CECOT piece as soon as it was ready.”

“Tonight, viewers get to see it, along with other important stories, all of which speak to CBS News’ independence and the power of our storytelling,” it said.

The segment, titled “Inside CECOT,” featured interviews with two Venezuelan men being held in the Salvadoran prison after being deported from the United States.

Last year, as part of an effort to deliver what President Donald Trump has said will be the largest deportation of illegal immigrants in U.S. history, he invoked the wartime Enemy Aliens Act to fast-track the removal of alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. The Trump administration paid the Salvadoran government millions of dollars to send more than 200 of those Venezuelan deportees to CECOT.

The two Venezuelans interviewed by “60 Minutes” described conditions inside the prison, which they said included beatings, living in cramped cells where the lights stayed on 24 hours a day, and being forced to kneel for hours at a time.

The report was largely unchanged from the Dec. 22 version. The updated version included a short clip of Trump saying that CECOT has “very strong facilities” where security staff “don’t play games,” and another of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying that “heinous monsters, rapists, murderers, sexual assaulters, predators who have no right to be in this country” were sent there.

Alfonsi’s introduction was updated to open with the Jan. 3 military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who is currently in U.S. custody awaiting trial on federal narco-terrorism charges. In the new material, she also said she obtained data from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement suggesting 33 of the 252 Venezuelan prisoners had been convicted of a crime in the United States, and reiterated a statistic from the original report that eight had been convicted of a violent or potentially violent offense.

In the segment, Alfonsi said the Department of Homeland Security declined her request for an on-camera interview and referred questions about the prison to the government of El Salvador, which did not respond. DHS did, however, provide an explanation for why it would not share detailed records about the individuals sent to CECOT.

“We are confident in our law enforcement’s intelligence, and we aren’t going to share intelligence reports and undermine national security every time a gang member denies he is one,” DHS wrote in an email to CBS News shown in the segment. “That would be insane.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 21:45

Putting A Stake In Stakeholder Capitalism

Authored by Terrence Keeley via RealClearWorld,

The 56th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum convening in Davos on January 19-23 will be the first without its founder, Klaus Schwab. WEF’s new organizers should use the occasion to distance themselves from Schwab’s worst ideas: stakeholder capitalism, ESG investing and the net-zero energy paradigm.

Stakeholder capitalism is a concept invented by Schwab. Schwab’s argued for years that capitalism governed by shareholders would be vastly improved by systematically elevating the inputs of other stakeholders, like employees, supply chains, community values and the environment. ESG investing is the analytic framework upon which stakeholder capitalism largely depends. ESG rating agents use non-financial metrics to identify the “best” and “worst” companies to overweight, underweight or exclude in investment portfolios. Stakeholder capitalists broadly embraced the net-zero energy paradigm, aka “Paris +1.5°C by 2050 at all costs”. Net-zero commitments led many European countries to spend trillions on wind and solar investments at the expense of more reliable, more resilient and considerably cheaper energy alternatives, including fossil fuels. WEF’s acolytes have cheered them on as they did.

All of these concepts have harmed humanity. It’s crucial to understand how – and to stop misrepresenting them.

Stakeholder capitalism wrongly places responsibility for market failures on corporations. But corporations don’t define market opportunities: consumers and regulators do. Stakeholder capitalists have told oil and gas companies to stop production even when demand for their products and services continued to grow unabated. Stakeholder capitalists instruct companies to do things those company owners do not want or support. That’s not capitalism: that’s communism.

Private companies perpetually debate how and where societal values and their financial valuations align. No company can succeed without keeping their customers loyal and happy. Bureaucratic regulations and quixotic ESG metrics provide no useful information about how companies can better serve their clients: in fact, they often give destructive advice. The infamous Bud Light commercial that was meant to expand its appeal among marginalized communities resulted in a 25% market share decline. Milton Friedman claimed in his defining treatise, The Social Responsibility of Business, corporations must broadly reflect the ethics and priorities of those they serve. To not do so is self-immolating. Friedman was and remains 100% correct. Embracing values not widely shared destroys financial valuations for no tangible social gain.

By prioritizing stakeholder needs, environmental, social and governance investment mandates pledged to generate superior market returns alongside tangible societal benefit. They failed to deliver either. As opposed to impact investing, which verifiably brings about change intended by the investor, ESG investing has neither done much good nor very well. ESG’s broad underperformance was presciently anticipated by Vanguard’s fabled founder, John Bogle. Bogle rightly observed that, to optimize long-run investment performance, investors should own the whole market at the cheapest possible price. ESG investment funds willfully violate both of these common sense principles.

Companies that consistently operate in their shareholders’ best long-term interests are legally, financially and morally superior to those which attempt to prioritize other, more amorphous priorities. Investors who want their capital to improve environmental and social outcomes should abandon ESG investing and embrace impact investing. Trillions of dollars of public capital invested in solar and wind farms have saddled European consumers with electricity bills that are four times higher than those born by their counterparts in the US and China. Over-reliance on renewables also created energy intermittency that led to the deaths of seven Spanish and one Portuguese citizen in April 2025. All-of-the-above national energy strategies which embrace fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables create greater reliability, resilience and affordability. No country should abandon fossil fuels unless and until they have found more reliable, more abundant and cheaper alternatives.

In the closing paragraphs of the General Theory, John Maynard Keynes observed “The ideas of economists and political theorists – both when they are right and when they are wrong - are more powerful than is commonly understood.”

For WEF to best serve the common good, they should repudiate the wrong ideas their founder Klaus Schwab helped popularize. WEF will never be a respected voice for human flourishing until the forum returns to time-honored, proven ideas: free market principles coupled with effective philanthropy, authentic impact investment and sound public policy.

Terrence R Keeley is the CEO of the Impact Evaluation Lab and Author of Sustainable: Moving Beyond ESG to Impact Investing.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 20:55

"Out Of Touch": Marylanders Fume As Gov. Moore Prioritizes Building Energy-Hungry 'Sphere' Amid Power Bill Crisis

Marylanders are raging at left-wing Governor Wes Moore, accusing him of fast-tracking a massively power-hungry Sphere entertainment venue near Washington, DC, while working-class households across the central part of the state are drowning under crushing electricity bills.

"So this Governor spends money he doesn't even have yet. 200 million dollars of the cost for the Sphere at National Harbor will come from the State of Maryland's 2027 budget. He is so out of touch with what MD residents need and doesn't care as long as his name is in the headlines every day," Maryland resident Amy Milberger Seaman wrote in a Facebook group called "BGE Victims," which has nearly 15,000 residents upset about exploding power bills.

Local media outlet WBAL-TV reported Monday that Sphere Entertainment plans to build its second U.S. Sphere venue in National Harbor, in Prince George's County.

The Sphere will be slightly smaller than the one in Las Vegas, seating 6,000. Gov. Moore called the project the largest economic development project in the county's history. The venue is expected to be funded through a mix of public and private financing, including $200 million in incentives from the state.

The venue will include an exosphere exterior LED display and a 16K x 16K interior screen, the highest-resolution LED display in the world.

Residents are furious about the new Sphere because at peak power, it uses around 28 megawatts (MW), enough to power roughly 21,000 homes. Adding more demand to an already tight power grid because of just bad policies, after years of backfiring' climate crisis' policies stripped reliable fossil fuel spare capacity.

Here's what others in the Facebook group are saying about Moore:

"He is an Obama want-a-be. He loves being a celebrity. Loves having his picture taken. So much so he has at least 3 photographers. Maybe more. He is a liar, clueless about budgets. Overspends our hard earned tax dollars. He needs to go," resident Cheryl Gaigler Utz said.

Resident Toby Allred said, "Wasteful spending!!! That's what Democratic politicians love to do with OUR money!!"

Others said, "Build a natural gas and Power Plants First!!!"

Maryland Democrats really dropped the ball on power grid management. They put a fake climate crisis first, retired fossil fuel power generators early, and denied any new reliable fossil fuel power generation capacity on the grid, all while pushing unreliable solar and wind. The end result of bad stewardship is bankrupting the working class in the central part of the state with exploding power bills.

Maryland is a one-party rule of Democratic kings and queens. Prioritizing the Sphere over working-class folks comes as no surprise. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 20:30

Pakistan To Send Chinese Warplanes To Libyan Faction Under Gen. Haftar

via Middle East Eye

Pakistan has sealed a deal worth over $4 billion to sell military equipment, including warplanes jointly built with China, to General Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army, according to a report by Reuters.

The deal could significantly alter the military balance of power in the oil-rich North African country, where Haftar rules over the eastern half and a UN-recognized government led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh in Tripoli controls the west.

Pakistan Air Force JF-17, via Military Watch Magazine

"Please make your armed forces as strong as possible because armed forces did guarantee the existence of countries," Pakistan military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir said in a visit to Benghazi last week, where he met Haftar's son, Saddam. Reuters reported that the arms deal was finalized in that meeting.

"Libya is a land of lions," Munir said in a video clip of his address to Libyan National Army officers, referencing the Libyan Islamic Scholar Omar al-Mukhtar, whose struggle in the 1920-1930s against the Italian occupation of Libya was made famous in the 1981 movie Lion of the Desert starring Anthony Quinn.

A copy of the arms deal seen by Reuters before it was finalized said Haftar's LNA would purchase 16 JF-17 fighter jets, a multirole combat aircraft jointly developed by Pakistan and China, along with 12 Super Mushak trainer aircraft, used for basic pilot training.

One of the Pakistani officials who spoke with Reuters said the agreement would be spread over two and a half years, with land, sea and air equipment included. Two Pakistani officials said the deal could reach up to $4.6bn - Pakistan's largest in history.

Neither the Tripoli government nor Haftar's forces have a substantial air force. Haftar made a failed bid to conquer Tripoli in 2019 with the backing of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia. Turkey intervened to defend the government in Tripoli, sending mercenaries and TB2 drones. Since then, it has stationed thousands of troops in the Western half of Libya and sealed a controversial maritime agreement with the government in Tripoli.

Dbeibeh was nominated prime minister of Libya in 2021 as part of a UN-backed process to prepare the country for elections. Instead, he has consolidated power in his hands and curried favor with powerful militias that control Tripoli to stay in power.

After the NATO-led removal of longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya became a theatre for proxy conflict between Gulf states and Turkey. However, those battle lines have blurred in recent years.

Libya's shifting alliances

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have extended ties to Tripoli, while Turkey has courted Haftar through his son and likely successor, Saddam. Earlier this year, discussions were held about Khalifa Haftar visiting Turkey, but the visit never materialized.

Islamabad is close to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter remains the closest Gulf state to Haftar, but Saudi Arabia also provided support and lobbied on his behalf. Russia's embassy in Riyadh once served as a facilitator for Haftar's close ties to Moscow, MEE reported.

The Haftar family's ties with Egypt have come under strain over their support and coordination with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.

Libya's lawless southeast and Sudan's Darfur share a border, and Haftar has facilitated the shipment of arms to the RSF, MEE has reported. Arab officials in June said that forces aligned with Haftar launched a cross-border attack alongside the RSF on forces loyal to the Sudanese army, which Cairo backs.

Pakistan's decision to sell arms to Haftar could also complicate its diplomatic relations with a key partner. While the Gulf states may not be alarmed by the deal, it could rile Turkey, which has close diplomatic and security links to Pakistan.

Lieutenant General Saddam Haftar (L) with his father Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Source: The Arab Weekly/social media

Ankara backs Pakistan in its territorial dispute with India over Kashmir. Turkey is the third largest arms supplier to Pakistan, although it is massively outperformed by the largest, China.

Pakistan's rising role

Pakistan's cash-strapped government is trying to boost its arms exports, capitalising on its military hardware's performance in a deadly military clash with India in May.

Arms have poured into Libya for years despite an arms embargo that the UN has imposed on the country since 2011.mAlthough Pakistan will be selling Chinese weapons to Haftar, Pakistan's relations with the US have also improved substantially since President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize in October, live from a Gaza ceasefire signing ceremony in Egypt. Munir, who is seen as the more influential Pakistani leader, has met twice with Trump this year and is expected to visit the White House a third time to discuss Gaza.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 20:05

Fauci & Collins Brushed Off 'Impressive' Data For COVID Natural Immunity

Newly released emails reveal that senior Biden administration health officials privately grappling with research suggesting recovery from Covid-19 infection provided stronger protection than vaccination alone - at the very moment the federal government was preparing sweeping vaccine mandates in 2021.

(from l) Bill Gates, former NIH director Dr. Francis Collins and former NIAID director Dr. Anthony Fauci.

The correspondence, released under the Freedom of Information Act to the watchdog group Protect the Public’s Trust and shared with the Daily Caller News Foundation, offers the clearest documentary evidence to date that top officials recognized scientific uncertainties around one-size-fits-all vaccination policies, even as they publicly dismissed the value of natural immunity.

At the center of the internal debate was a massive Israeli study of nearly 800,000 people that found prior infection conferred substantially stronger protection against reinfection than two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. In private emails, Dr. Anthony Fauci described the findings as “rather impressive,” acknowledging both the scale and rigor of the research, which had received prominent coverage in Science.

"The data [in the Israeli study] as reported in the news article look rather impressive . . . . but I would imagine that it is more complicated than we think . . . . [I]t is conceivable and possibly likely that those who have had a serious systemic infection develop a high level of immunity that even surpasses that of full vaccination," Fauci wrote in an Aug. 27, 2021 email with the subject line "RE: Post infection protection vs vaccine immunity."

Yet the same emails reveal officials’ concern that such findings could undermine the administration’s push for universal vaccination - and later, mandates - by complicating public messaging.

The documents lend new weight to claims made over the past four years by critics inside and outside government that federal agencies sidelined natural immunity not because of weak evidence, but because it was administratively inconvenient. Verifying prior infection, several officials suggested, would make policy enforcement harder and public guidance less uniform.

Acknowledging the Evidence - Privately

In exchanges with colleagues that included the surgeon general, the NIH director, and the CDC director, Fauci weighed the Israeli data against a far smaller CDC study of a few hundred Kentuckians. That CDC analysis, published in the agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, suggested vaccination after infection reduced reinfection risk more than infection alone. As Just the News points out, "The Biden administration often used MMWR, also not peer-reviewed, to push weak research that justified its policies."

The contrast was stark. The Israeli research - though a preprint at the time - showed natural immunity was many times more protective against reinfection and symptomatic disease. Fauci conceded the Israeli work was compelling, even while noting its retrospective design and voluntary testing.

He also speculated that the strength of natural immunity likely varied with illness severity, suggesting that recovery from “serious systemic infection” might offer better protection than vaccination - an assessment that ran counter to the administration’s public insistence that vaccination was superior across the board.

Bureaucracy Over Nuance

The emails echo statements later made by Paul Offit, a pediatrician and longtime FDA vaccine adviser, who admitted on a podcast four years ago that senior officials discussed - but ultimately rejected - recognizing natural immunity as a basis for exemption from vaccine mandates. According to Offit, the group broadly agreed that prior infection mattered immunologically. The obstacle, he said, was bureaucratic: how to document it.

NEW FOIA'd documents show that Fauci privately acknowledged "impressive" data showed natural immunity was more protective than COVID vaccines even as the Biden admin implemented mandates in 2021.

Privately officials acknowledged the strength of a study of 770,000+ people showing… pic.twitter.com/NeklY4t9GT

— Emily Kopp (@emilyakopp) January 14, 2026

Offit has since criticized aspects of the administration’s Covid vaccine strategy, including booster recommendations for low-risk groups and what he described as selective data-sharing with advisory committees. His term on a key FDA vaccine panel was not extended in 2022.

While the pediatrician and vaccine inventor told Just the News the meeting's importance had been exaggerated, Offit elaborated after the 2024 election on the 2021 meeting's details, telling the same podcast "we all basically agreed" on an exemption but "the question was, bureaucratically," how to verify natural immunity.

He also said Dr. Anthony Fauci, then-director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told him at a 2023 meeting that the feds didn't target "high-risk groups" for vaccination because that was too "nuanced" and some at high risk wouldn't get jabbed unless everyone was told to do it. -Just the News

The newly released records also show senior officials struggling to reconcile conflicting data while preparing talking points to counter claims that vaccines were unnecessary for those already infected. In one email, CDC Covid response medical officer John Brooks summarized the state of the science: both infection and vaccination induce immunity; infection-derived protection appeared more durable; but infection carried higher risks and vaccination was “safe.”

Dr. John Brooks, CDC Chief Medical Officer, told a US Senate investigation that when the @CDC recommended cloth masks on March 31, 2020, the evidence in favor was "iron clad."

Implication: the CDC ignored the RCTs & never followed evidence-based medicine principles. pic.twitter.com/RboW68NbsB

— Jay Bhattacharya (@DrJBhattacharya) January 16, 2024

Still, Brooks acknowledged that some of the data supporting boosters were thin - one cited study involved only four subjects - and that the CDC lacked a comprehensive meta-analysis comparing infection- and vaccine-induced immunity.

Messaging vs. Evidence

Francis Collins, then director of the NIH, privately described the Israeli natural-immunity findings as “somewhat puzzling,” precisely because the study appeared well designed. He asked colleagues whether the CDC had synthesized all available evidence, noting that officials had repeatedly told the public vaccines provided better protection.

"Does CDC have a ready meta-analysis of all of the studies that have compared the immunity from natural infection to vaccination?" Collins asked. "Most of us have been saying up until now that vaccines are actually better for providing immunity – what does the overall synthesis of the data now say?"

As JTN notes further, those private doubts contrasted sharply with Collins’s earlier public posture, particularly his aggressive dismissal of the Great Barrington Declaration, whose authors argued for focused protection rather than universal restrictions and mandates. In the emails, Collins appeared far more circumspect, seeking nuance rather than certainty.

Protect the Public’s Trust has accused the CDC of misrepresenting its own Kentucky study, noting that agency press materials blurred the distinction between vaccination after infection and vaccination versus infection alone. The group filed a formal scientific-integrity complaint with the Department of Health and Human Services over what it called misleading public claims.

Michael Chamberlain, the organization’s director, told the Daily Caller that the emails show officials attempting to “bury what didn’t fit their preferred narrative,” even as Americans relied on foreign research for answers to basic questions about Covid immunity.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 19:40

Trump Says 'Agitators' In Minnesota Church Should Be Jailed, Wants Broader Investigation

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump said that people who stormed a Minneapolis church over the past weekend should be jailed, while calling on the Department of Justice (DOJ) to investigate two local Democratic politicians.

President Donald Trump speaks during the "Great, Historic Investment in Rural Health Roundtable" in the East Room of the White House on Jan. 16, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

“Just watched footage of the Church Raid in Minnesota by the agitators and insurrectionists. These people are professionals! No person acts the way they act,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on early Tuesday.

The individuals who appeared at the church “are highly trained to scream, rant, and rave, like lunatics, in a certain manner, just like they are doing. They are troublemakers who should be thrown in jail, or thrown out of the Country.”

A livestreamed video posted on the Facebook page of Black Lives Matter Minnesota, one of the protest’s organizers, shows a group of people interrupting services at the Cities Church in St. Paul by chanting “ICE out,” referring to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and “Justice for Renee Good,” a protester who was shot in Minnesota by an ICE agent as she hit him with her car while trying to escape custody. The protesters allege that one of the church’s pastors also leads the local ICE field office overseeing some operations in the Twin Cities area.

Responding to the church incident, DOJ Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon said the department is investigating federal civil rights violations who she said were “desecrating a house of worship and interfering with Christian worshippers.”

“A house of worship is not a public forum for your protest! It is a space protected from exactly such acts by federal criminal and civil laws!” she wrote in a post on social media.

Dhillon said in an interview with the Daily Wire that DOJ prosecutors went to Minneapolis on Monday to investigate the church case, suggesting that the protesters were violating the rights of the church-goers.

“You can have your protest in a park, you can have a march, you can get a permit for a large gathering, but you can’t just go wherever you want and tear things up and disrupt,” she told the outlet. “And that’s what these people did. And so now, people are afraid to go to church. And that is an absolute disgrace in this country.”

Attorney General Pam Bondi has also written that any violations of federal law would be prosecuted by the department.

In his social media post, Trump also took aim at Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat, and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), calling on the DOJ to investigate both in response to the recent unrest in Minnesota.

Both Walz and Omar have been critical of the Trump administration’s operation targeting illegal immigration in Minnesota, with Omar saying last week that the Twin Cities area is “under attack” by the federal government.

“There is no modern precedent for this level of federal overreach, violence, and lawlessness carried out in the name of immigration enforcement,” she said.

Walz also said that he believes Trump is seeking “violence in the streets” with the federal operation, adding that “Minnesota will remain an island of decency, of justice, of community, and of peace.” He then said, “Don’t give him what he wants.”

The Epoch Times contacted Walz’s and Omar’s offices for comment on Tuesday.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/20/2026 - 19:15