Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
How did a layoff lead to a revolution in financial data? Mike Bloomberg shares the story behind the Bloomberg Terminal, lessons from serving as NYC Mayor, and his philosophy on risk-taking and leadership:
Step inside Bloomberg’s New York headquarters for a conversation with the man who built it all. Nicolai Tangen sits down with Michael Bloomberg to explore his journey from Wall Street to founding Bloomberg LP, his approach to leadership and risk-taking, and the values that fuel his extraordinary philanthropic work. Bloomberg shares stories of creating the Bloomberg Terminal, transforming New York City as mayor, and why he still works almost every day at 83. An insightful look at a life devoted to building, improving, and giving back.
I have been trying to get Mike on MY Podcast now for many years, but he is reluctant to show up on his own air…
The post Michael Bloomberg: Building an Empire & Giving Away Billions appeared first on The Big Picture.
AI systems are moving from novelty to infrastructure. They write, code, search, and increasingly act on our behalf.
That speed has put a spotlight on a harder question: how seriously are AI companies managing the risks that come with more capable models?
This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, visualizes and compares the safety scores of major AI companies using data from the AI Safety Index published by the Future of Life Institute, which scores companies across six key metrics.
Based on the scores across six key metrics of AI safety, Anthropic, the creators of Claude, scored highest overall with a C+.
Anthropic was the only company that scored an “A” grade in two categories, with an A- in both governance and accountability along with information sharing.
The table below shows the overall grade of each AI company in terms of safety, along with their grades in specific safety categories.
Following Anthropic was OpenAI, creators of ChatGPT, which received a C grade overall. The only category it scored higher than Anthropic in was in the current harms category, partially thanks to the fact that OpenAI was the only company with a published whistleblowing policy at the time of the report’s publication.
Chinese companies Zhipu.AI and DeepSeek both received failing grades overall, though the report notes that China’s stricter national AI regulations may explain their weaker performance on Western-aligned self-governance and transparency metrics.
Understanding “AI Safety” and Why it MattersA useful AI safety program is more than a promise to “be responsible.” It shows up as concrete processes: documented evaluations, clear thresholds for when to pause or limit deployment, and a trail of public reporting that lets outsiders understand what was tested and why.
Companies that score well tend to communicate more about how they handle model behavior, misuse risks, and incident response.
In contrast, lower-rated firms often appear opaque—either disclosing less overall or providing safety statements that are hard to verify.
In highlighting companies’ weak points when it comes to AI safety, the report from the Future of Life Institute notes that the AI industry is both fundamentally unprepared for its stated goals of reaching artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Along with this, it states that AI capabilities are accelerating far faster than risk management practices, and the lack of a regulatory floor means companies can cut corners on safety in order to get ahead in the race towards AGI.
To learn more about AI companies, check out this graphic on Voronoi that charts the skyrocketing revenues of Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 13:55Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,
The Trump administration has launched what officials described as the largest immigration enforcement operation ever Tuesday in the Minneapolis–St. Paul area, initiating the deployment of federal agents and officers in a crackdown tied to widespread fraud investigations allegedly involving mainly Somali residents.
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem participating in an immigration enforcement operation in Minnesota with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers on Jan. 6, 2026, that resulted in the arrest of Tomas Espin Tapia, a fugitive wanted for murder and sexual assault in Ecuador. (DHS)DHS
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem was on the ground early Tuesday as the sweep started, adding to the number of top federal officials focused on the state as federal investigations expand this week.
The Department of Homeland Security has made more than 1,000 arrests of illegal immigrants, many with criminal convictions, in Minnesota, including 150 in Minneapolis Monday, the agency reported.
“We have the largest immigration operation ever taking place right now,” acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Director Todd Lyons told Newsmax on Tuesday.
Federal agents and officers were going door to door at businesses in the area suspected of being involved in illegal hiring and fraud, Lyons said.
“We’re not leaving until the problem is solved,” DHS wrote on X Tuesday.
DHS and ICE did not return requests to confirm how many agents and officers were involved in the operations.
According to Noem, Minnesota authorities are not allowing immigration officers to access state detention centers to detain illegal immigrants with pending deportation orders. A large number of federal officers was needed after a lack of local support, Noem indicated in a social media post Tuesday.
“You won’t steal from Americans or break our laws and get away with it,” Noem said.
Included in Tuesday’s arrests was Tomas Espin Tapia, a fugitive wanted for murder in Ecuador, DHS reported.
Tapia illegally entered the U.S. in October 2022 and was released into the country by the Biden administration, according to the agency.
Tapia’s criminal history also includes sexual assault in Connecticut and previous convictions in Ecuador for robbery and extortion.
Mong Cheng, a criminal illegal immigrant from Laos who was convicted of homicide, vehicle theft, possession of stolen property, assault, and arson, was also among those arrested Tuesday, DHS reported.
Immigrant rights groups and elected officials in the Twin Cities area reported an increase in sightings of federal agents, especially around St. Paul.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz blasted the immigration operation, calling it “ridiculous.”
“Nobody is fooled into thinking this bafoonery [sic] is a reasonable use of taxpayer dollars,” Walz wrote on X. “It should not take 50 ICE agents to arrest one guy in a library.”
Walz dropped his reelection bid Monday as federal agencies expanded investigations into alleged systemwide social services fraud in the state.
The former vice presidential candidate said he needed time to concentrate on combating fraud.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 13:35In a new iteration of a seemingly self-defeating tactic, President Trump's latest social media rant against Republican Rep. Thomas Massie has triggered a deluge of contributions to the man Trump has targeted for a primary challenge in May. However, with three billionaires on his side, Massie's challenger is building a formidable war chest, making this -- at least in dollar terms -- the most serious challenge he's faced to date.
On Monday, Trump used a lengthy Truth Social post to reiterate his endorsement of Massie's primary challenger, Ed Gallrein, a donor to Sen. Lindsey Graham and former Navy SEAL. Trump called Massie "the Worst 'Republican' Congressman we have had in many years...a Weak and Pathetic RINO." In his parting shot, Trump accused Massie of insufficient affection for a foreign country, calling him "a true hater of Israel."
It happened again today! Why do I get attacked weekly? Because I’m the only Republican who refuses to rubber stamp foreign aid, endless deficits, and unnecessary wars. I’m also exposing sex traffickers.
— Thomas Massie for Congress (@MassieforKY) January 6, 2026
My primary is in May. Please help if you can: https://t.co/AgJY01IWPL pic.twitter.com/AAHNPtCU8H
Though Trump urged "all MAGA Warriors" to rally behind Gallrein, money immediately started flowing into the Massie campaign. In a Tuesday evening post on X, Massie celebrated having received over $41,000 in donations from 667 people in 24 hours. "Maybe we schedule a tweet from Donald Trump every week ... because every time he does it, it boosts my fundraising," Massie previously told the Cincinnati Enquirer.
If past remarks in the ZeroHedge comment section are any indication, there are people for whom each Trump attack on the libertarian-minded Kentuckian is something akin to the Bat-Signal, spurring them to chip in a little more money to Massie's re-election campaign. "I donate to Massie every time I learn about a new attack on his House seat by Trump or the Israel-Firsters," one such commenter wrote after the Trump team launched a SuperPAC focused solely on ousting Massie. The commenter likened his donations to the "Money Bomb" events used to solicit large numbers of small-dollar donations to Ron Paul's presidential campaigns.
Though it's called the "MAGA Kentucky" PAC, federal filings revealed the anti-Massie PAC was funded entirely by three Israel-backing billionaires who live somewhere else: Miriam Adelson, John Paulsen and Paul Singer initially poured in a combined $2 million. On top of that PAC stash, Gallrein's campaign last week announced it raised $1.2 million in 2025's fourth quarter.
On the other side of the board, Massie's campaign had a little over $2 million on hand as of Sep 30, and Massie now has his own out-of-state billionaire in his corner: Jeff Yass, co-founder and managing director of trading-and-tech firm Susquehanna International Group, gave the Massie-backing Kentucky First PAC $1 million on Oct. 23.
Thomas Massie tonight says DOJ is citing laws that don’t apply to hide key parts of the Epstein files: “They’re still trying to protect billionaires, politically connected people, and trying to obscure the involvement of our own intelligence agencies.” pic.twitter.com/kmuOg6QPWJ
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) January 7, 2026
Massie has clashed with Trump on a variety of issues. He's been leading the drive to force the release of the Epstein files -- which Trump now calls a "Democrat hoax." He has routinely opposed US aid to Israel and condemned Trump's decision to join Israel's war on Iran in June. He first notably triggered Trump's wrath in March 2020, when Massie tried to derail the $2 trillion Covid relief bill, and he's continued to resist Trump's other big spending initiatives, such as 2024's Big Beautiful Bill. A fiscal hawk, the MIT graduate built his own digital lapel pin that tracks the growing national debt in real time.
The Kentucky primary is 132 days away -- on May 19. While there are no recent, credible, public polls on the race, Massie says he'd confident he'll win, and that, in the face of what's shaping us a grim midterm for the Republican Party, the Trump Team is squandering scarce resources:
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 13:15There’s still time for him to tell his henchmen not to spend millions against me that they could otherwise spend to keep the majority.
— Thomas Massie for Congress (@MassieforKY) January 6, 2026
In a new iteration of a seemingly self-defeating tactic, President Trump's latest social media rant against Republican Rep. Thomas Massie has triggered a deluge of contributions to the man Trump has targeted for a primary challenge in May. However, with three billionaires on his side, Massie's challenger is building a formidable war chest, making this -- at least in dollar terms -- the most serious challenge he's faced to date.
On Monday, Trump used a lengthy Truth Social post to reiterate his endorsement of Massie's primary challenger, Ed Gallrein, a donor to Sen. Lindsey Graham and former Navy SEAL. Trump called Massie "the Worst 'Republican' Congressman we have had in many years...a Weak and Pathetic RINO." In his parting shot, Trump accused Massie of insufficient affection for a foreign country, calling him "a true hater of Israel."
It happened again today! Why do I get attacked weekly? Because I’m the only Republican who refuses to rubber stamp foreign aid, endless deficits, and unnecessary wars. I’m also exposing sex traffickers.
— Thomas Massie for Congress (@MassieforKY) January 6, 2026
My primary is in May. Please help if you can: https://t.co/AgJY01IWPL pic.twitter.com/AAHNPtCU8H
Though Trump urged "all MAGA Warriors" to rally behind Gallrein, money immediately started flowing into the Massie campaign. In a Tuesday evening post on X, Massie celebrated having received over $41,000 in donations from 667 people in 24 hours. "Maybe we schedule a tweet from Donald Trump every week ... because every time he does it, it boosts my fundraising," Massie previously told the Cincinnati Enquirer.
If past remarks in the ZeroHedge comment section are any indication, there are people for whom each Trump attack on the libertarian-minded Kentuckian is something akin to the Bat-Signal, spurring them to chip in a little more money to Massie's re-election campaign. "I donate to Massie every time I learn about a new attack on his House seat by Trump or the Israel-Firsters," one such commenter wrote after the Trump team launched a SuperPAC focused solely on ousting Massie. The commenter likened his donations to the "Money Bomb" events used to solicit large numbers of small-dollar donations to Ron Paul's presidential campaigns.
Though it's called the "MAGA Kentucky" PAC, federal filings revealed the anti-Massie PAC was funded entirely by three Israel-backing billionaires who live somewhere else: Miriam Adelson, John Paulsen and Paul Singer initially poured in a combined $2 million. On top of that PAC stash, Gallrein's campaign last week announced it raised $1.2 million in 2025's fourth quarter.
On the other side of the board, Massie's campaign had a little over $2 million on hand as of Sep 30, and Massie now has his own out-of-state billionaire in his corner: Jeff Yass, co-founder and managing director of trading-and-tech firm Susquehanna International Group, gave the Massie-backing Kentucky First PAC $1 million on Oct. 23.
Thomas Massie tonight says DOJ is citing laws that don’t apply to hide key parts of the Epstein files: “They’re still trying to protect billionaires, politically connected people, and trying to obscure the involvement of our own intelligence agencies.” pic.twitter.com/kmuOg6QPWJ
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) January 7, 2026
Massie has clashed with Trump on a variety of issues. He's been leading the drive to force the release of the Epstein files -- which Trump now calls a "Democrat hoax." He has routinely opposed US aid to Israel and condemned Trump's decision to join Israel's war on Iran in June. He first notably triggered Trump's wrath in March 2020, when Massie tried to derail the $2 trillion Covid relief bill, and he's continued to resist Trump's other big spending initiatives, such as 2024's Big Beautiful Bill. A fiscal hawk, the MIT graduate built his own digital lapel pin that tracks the growing national debt in real time.
The Kentucky primary is 132 days away -- on May 19. While there are no recent, credible, public polls on the race, Massie says he'd confident he'll win, and that, in the face of what's shaping us a grim midterm for the Republican Party, the Trump Team is squandering scarce resources:
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 13:15There’s still time for him to tell his henchmen not to spend millions against me that they could otherwise spend to keep the majority.
— Thomas Massie for Congress (@MassieforKY) January 6, 2026
Shares in Blackstone cratered on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced that he would be 'immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes,' and will be calling on Congress 'to codify it.
"For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing," Trump posted on Truth Social. "but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans."
Trump said he would discus the topic - along with other cost-of-living initiatives, during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos later this month.
"People live in homes, not corporations," Trump said in his post.
The US president said last month he was planning to unveil “some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history” in the coming year.
The cost of housing has soared in recent years due to a historic supply shortage, after construction rates fell in the wake of the global financial crisis. A pandemic boom exacerbated the problem: As of August, the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index had risen 68% since January 2020.
Both parties have been keen to show they take the housing problem seriously heading into the November midterms. -Bloomberg
Shares of Blackstone, widely considered the nation's largest landlord, were off to the tune of 9.3% on the news.
Developing, stay tuned for more...
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 13:05Shares in Blackstone cratered on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced that he would be 'immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes,' and will be calling on Congress 'to codify it.
"For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing," Trump posted on Truth Social. "but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans."
Trump said he would discus the topic - along with other cost-of-living initiatives, during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos later this month.
"People live in homes, not corporations," Trump said in his post.
The US president said last month he was planning to unveil “some of the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history” in the coming year.
The cost of housing has soared in recent years due to a historic supply shortage, after construction rates fell in the wake of the global financial crisis. A pandemic boom exacerbated the problem: As of August, the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index had risen 68% since January 2020.
Both parties have been keen to show they take the housing problem seriously heading into the November midterms. -Bloomberg
Shares of Blackstone, widely considered the nation's largest landlord, were off to the tune of 9.3% on the news.
Developing, stay tuned for more...
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 13:05Authored by Victor Davis Hanson (get well soon) via American Greatness,
As the 1992 campaign approached, incumbent president George H.W. Bush was seen as a shoo-in for reelection.
The First Gulf War ended in 1991 with a spectacular U.S. victory at the head of a coalition that had expelled Saddam Hussein from Kuwait with few losses.
For much of 1991, Bush’s approval ratings hovered between 90 and 70 percent.
By February 1992, an obscure Arkansas governor, Bill Clinton, emerged as the favorite Democratic nominee. But he was written off as having little chance to knock off the popular Republican incumbent president with far more foreign affairs experience.
Bush, however, had just lost his brilliant 1988 campaign manager, Lee Atwater, to cancer. And third-party prairie-fire candidate Ross Perot had entered the race, drawing off conservative Bush support.
Most importantly, in 1990, the U.S. economy had experienced a mild recession that had bottomed out in early 1991.
By the 1992 election, the U.S. was headed to full recovery.
In the last six months of 1992, GDP rebounded at over an astonishing four percent.
The inflation rate in the months before the election was often less than three percent.
Even stubborn unemployment was starting to fall to 7.3%.
The eight-month recession officially ended in March 1991, followed by continual positive economic growth.
No matter. The brilliant Clinton campaign still ran on the directive “It’s the economy, stupid” and the slogan “Putting people first.”
The Clinton theme song was the upbeat Fleetwood Mac hit “Don’t Stop,” highlighting the young Clinton-Gore ticket in supposed contrast to the 68-year-old Bush.
Key to the Clinton campaign rhetoric was the false charge of “the worst job growth since the Great Depression.”
By November 1992, Clinton had convinced voters that the prior year’s recession was still in full force.
The doom-and-gloom, near-depression “recession,” together with Perot’s third-party candidacy and Bush’s sluggish campaign, won Clinton the presidency with 43% of the popular vote.
In response, the Bush campaign had tried to trumpet the administration’s many foreign policy successes.
The Berlin Wall fell in November 1989.
The Cold War ended in a U.S. victory.
Germany was reunified in October 1990.
In December 1989, Bush successfully removed the narco-dictator Manuel Noriega of Panama, who threatened the viability of the Panama Canal.
The Gulf War was won brilliantly by February 1991.
The nuclear START treaty was signed with the Soviet Union in July 1991, just before the USSR itself collapsed in December.
By any normal reckoning, Bush should have been a shoo-in: spectacular foreign policy successes and a rebounding economy after a brief recession that had ended 15 months before the November 1992 election.
Instead, the pseudo-recession of 1992 dominated the campaign.
Indeed, Bush’s many achievements overseas were cleverly distorted by Clinton as proof that the globe-trotting president was more interested in the world abroad than “putting people first” at home.
As in Bush’s prior 1988 campaign, Lee Atwater would have torn the Clinton campaign apart as inexperienced and disingenuous. Atwater would have ordered Bush to talk nonstop about virtually no inflation, robust four percent economic growth, and declining unemployment.
Instead, the lackluster Bush campaign team never caught on and was crushed by Clinton, with help from the economic populist Ross Perot.
The pseudo-recession of 1992 should remind the Trump people not to repeat the same mistake in the 2026 midterms.
Trump’s first ten months of foreign policy achievements are almost as impressive as Bush’s entire four years.
He neutered the feared Iranian nuclear bomb project. He ensured Israel could devastate the terrorist cabals of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, as well as their sponsor, theocratic Iran.
Instead of a trade war, increased tariff revenue and fair trade agreements were signed.
The border was closed shut.
Military recruitment rebounded to near record levels.
NATO was strengthened, and the intractable Ukraine war may end in a ceasefire.
Compared to the prior moribund Biden economy, Trump’s has set new precedents: record energy production and falling gas prices; inflation now below the three percent he inherited; and third-quarter GDP growth at a remarkable 4.3%.
But more importantly, 2026 may see even stronger economic growth, given a historical $10 trillion in foreign investment, tax cuts, deregulation, ever-greater energy production, huge investment in new technologies like AI and nuclear fusion, and dozens of favorable trade deals.
Yet, the left, like the Clinton campaign of old, is talking nonstop bout “affordability”—both ignoring the Democrats’ own dismal 2021-2025 economic record and claiming Trump, like Bush, cares more about those overseas than at home.
Whether the pseudo-recession of 2025-2026 works as well as the fake 1992 recession now hinges on whether the Trump campaign learns from the past and from now on fixates on the economy.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 12:55Authored by Victor Davis Hanson (get well soon) via American Greatness,
As the 1992 campaign approached, incumbent president George H.W. Bush was seen as a shoo-in for reelection.
The First Gulf War ended in 1991 with a spectacular U.S. victory at the head of a coalition that had expelled Saddam Hussein from Kuwait with few losses.
For much of 1991, Bush’s approval ratings hovered between 90 and 70 percent.
By February 1992, an obscure Arkansas governor, Bill Clinton, emerged as the favorite Democratic nominee. But he was written off as having little chance to knock off the popular Republican incumbent president with far more foreign affairs experience.
Bush, however, had just lost his brilliant 1988 campaign manager, Lee Atwater, to cancer. And third-party prairie-fire candidate Ross Perot had entered the race, drawing off conservative Bush support.
Most importantly, in 1990, the U.S. economy had experienced a mild recession that had bottomed out in early 1991.
By the 1992 election, the U.S. was headed to full recovery.
In the last six months of 1992, GDP rebounded at over an astonishing four percent.
The inflation rate in the months before the election was often less than three percent.
Even stubborn unemployment was starting to fall to 7.3%.
The eight-month recession officially ended in March 1991, followed by continual positive economic growth.
No matter. The brilliant Clinton campaign still ran on the directive “It’s the economy, stupid” and the slogan “Putting people first.”
The Clinton theme song was the upbeat Fleetwood Mac hit “Don’t Stop,” highlighting the young Clinton-Gore ticket in supposed contrast to the 68-year-old Bush.
Key to the Clinton campaign rhetoric was the false charge of “the worst job growth since the Great Depression.”
By November 1992, Clinton had convinced voters that the prior year’s recession was still in full force.
The doom-and-gloom, near-depression “recession,” together with Perot’s third-party candidacy and Bush’s sluggish campaign, won Clinton the presidency with 43% of the popular vote.
In response, the Bush campaign had tried to trumpet the administration’s many foreign policy successes.
The Berlin Wall fell in November 1989.
The Cold War ended in a U.S. victory.
Germany was reunified in October 1990.
In December 1989, Bush successfully removed the narco-dictator Manuel Noriega of Panama, who threatened the viability of the Panama Canal.
The Gulf War was won brilliantly by February 1991.
The nuclear START treaty was signed with the Soviet Union in July 1991, just before the USSR itself collapsed in December.
By any normal reckoning, Bush should have been a shoo-in: spectacular foreign policy successes and a rebounding economy after a brief recession that had ended 15 months before the November 1992 election.
Instead, the pseudo-recession of 1992 dominated the campaign.
Indeed, Bush’s many achievements overseas were cleverly distorted by Clinton as proof that the globe-trotting president was more interested in the world abroad than “putting people first” at home.
As in Bush’s prior 1988 campaign, Lee Atwater would have torn the Clinton campaign apart as inexperienced and disingenuous. Atwater would have ordered Bush to talk nonstop about virtually no inflation, robust four percent economic growth, and declining unemployment.
Instead, the lackluster Bush campaign team never caught on and was crushed by Clinton, with help from the economic populist Ross Perot.
The pseudo-recession of 1992 should remind the Trump people not to repeat the same mistake in the 2026 midterms.
Trump’s first ten months of foreign policy achievements are almost as impressive as Bush’s entire four years.
He neutered the feared Iranian nuclear bomb project. He ensured Israel could devastate the terrorist cabals of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, as well as their sponsor, theocratic Iran.
Instead of a trade war, increased tariff revenue and fair trade agreements were signed.
The border was closed shut.
Military recruitment rebounded to near record levels.
NATO was strengthened, and the intractable Ukraine war may end in a ceasefire.
Compared to the prior moribund Biden economy, Trump’s has set new precedents: record energy production and falling gas prices; inflation now below the three percent he inherited; and third-quarter GDP growth at a remarkable 4.3%.
But more importantly, 2026 may see even stronger economic growth, given a historical $10 trillion in foreign investment, tax cuts, deregulation, ever-greater energy production, huge investment in new technologies like AI and nuclear fusion, and dozens of favorable trade deals.
Yet, the left, like the Clinton campaign of old, is talking nonstop bout “affordability”—both ignoring the Democrats’ own dismal 2021-2025 economic record and claiming Trump, like Bush, cares more about those overseas than at home.
Whether the pseudo-recession of 2025-2026 works as well as the fake 1992 recession now hinges on whether the Trump campaign learns from the past and from now on fixates on the economy.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 12:55Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995. It will be close! Even if sales beat 2024 sales, these will be the two lowest sales years since 1995. Sales will be worse than any year during the housing bust.There is much more in the article.
Most readers probably don’t remember 1995, but I do! If I went to an open house ‘95, I was frequently the only person to visit all day. Just me and the crickets.
December sales will be mostly for contracts signed in October and November, and mortgage rates averaged 6.25% in October and 6.24% in November (lower than for closed sales in November). ...
In December, sales in these early reporting markets were up 2.5% YoY. Last month, in November, these same markets were down 10.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Important: There was one more working days in December 2025 (22) as in December 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be less than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!
It's only fitting that two days after we got the weakest US Manufacturing ISM print in over a year, earlier this morning we got a diametrically opposite report from the Service sector, which according to the Institute for Supply Management expanded in December at the fastest pace in more than a year, fueled by solid demand growth and a pickup in hiring. As the chart below shows, while the Service sector grew at the fastest pace since October 2024, the Manufacturing sector contracted at the fastest pace since November 2024.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest since October 2024 (recall readings above 50 indicate expansion in the largest part of the economy). The December figure exceeded all projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Ironically, it printed at the exact same time as the latest JOLTs report which as we noted earlier, printed below all Wall Street estimates.
New orders expanded by the most since September 2024 and a measure of business activity, which parallels the ISM’s factory output gauge, climbed to a one-year high. Export bookings grew at the fastest pace in more than a year. Meanwhile, ISM’s index of prices paid for services and materials showed the slowest growth in nine months. The supplier deliveries index fell 2.3 points from the highest level in a year.
Inventories expanded at the fastest pace since October 2024, based on the ISM’s gauge. Even so, a measure of inventory sentiment fell for a third month, suggesting fewer service providers saw their stockpiles as being too high.
The pickup in demand helped spark the biggest growth in services employment since February, and comes just days before the December jobs report out Friday is projected to show moderate payrolls growth in December and a slightly lower unemployment rate than a month earlier.
“The broad-based strength in the headline index suggests that conditions in the services sector are picking up, hinting at the potential for some more broad-based economic growth,” Alexandra Brown, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
Eleven industries reported growth last month, led by retail trade, finance and insurance, and accommodation and food services. Five contracted, including management of companies and support services.
Below we share Select ISM survey respondent comments:
Commenting on the report, Bloomberg economist Alex Tanzi said that "the December ISM Services PMI reflects the economic turnaround since the government shutdown ended in November. Despite the sizable improvement, however, the tone of commentary remained uneasy, a warning sign for the future."
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 12:28Authored by Rob Smith via RealClearMarkets.com,
Now that Epiphany has begun and Christmas is over, perhaps it’s time to stop being so excessively nice to “groups” that do the most damage to an orderly and civilized world. The greater good requires us to hurt some feelings. Remember in Star Trek when the Klingons attacked the USS Enterprise and Captain Kirk raised a force field so enemy weapons couldn’t penetrate the ship? That is precisely what the clever jackals on the Left have done to public discourse.
A generation ago, importing 100,000 Somalis into Minneapolis would have been rejected outright, because Westerners were still permitted to speak plainly about Somalis, their culture, and Islam. Today, that conversation is impossible. The Left has erected a rhetorical force field to shield its political interests from its most dangerous enemy: the truth.
No societal problem can be solved unless the remedy addresses reality. Speak a truth—no matter how calmly or sincerely—and you are instantly branded a racist, homophobe, white supremacist, misogynist, fatphobe, xenophobe, and bigot. Yet by every objective metric, certain groups of people simply aren’t very smart—100% demonstrable through IQ data, test scores, and long histories of non-achievement. Men and women are biologically, emotionally, and cognitively different. But the force field forbids me from saying that liberal white women are clinically insane due to biological brain differences, or that saving the Republic may require repealing the 19th Amendment. Oops—I said it. Instead of screeching “misogyny” and shutting down speech, how about a debate? Prove me wrong. In New York, ninety percent of them voted for Mamdani!
Spare me the Indian land acknowledgements and the performative inability to acknowledge who actually founded this country. By modern standards, every living American is a white supremacist. The Western world created virtually everything of value. Anyone here not living in a grass hut, speaking a language without an alphabet, and eating grasshoppers has voluntarily assimilated into Western European culture because they recognize it as—yes—supreme.
So can we finally discard “intersectionality,” that pathetic framework where every group that sucks demands handouts while blaming the groups that don’t suck for their failures? The only way to help groups that suck is to tell them they suck—and that improvement requires emulating those who don’t. What, exactly, is wrong with being xenophobic when the culture in question is a rotten, thieving, low-IQ Islamic culture that has been terrorizing the West for 1,400 years?
The wizards atop Leftist orthodoxy make the rules for everyone else—rules designed to insulate themselves from criticism and preserve political hegemony. If you tell dysfunctional groups the truth and then leave them alone, they tend to improve. Anyone who has spent time among the liberal elite knows their public virtue signaling about forbidden language is a sham. In private, they readily admit the truths they forbid others from stating. Somehow, they’ve convinced their hordes of useful idiots to believe what they themselves do not.
Acknowledging objective reality—things that are undeniably true—is not hate speech. We’ve been bullied into silence by the threat of being labeled a hater. And yes, there are plenty of things I hate—crime, waste, stupidity, fraud, dishonesty, Duke University—but I don’t hate people. Thinking liberal white women shouldn’t vote is not hatred. It’s recognition that they lack Aristotelian logic, the cornerstone of sound government and durable civilizations. I’m trying to protect them—from destroying the country and from having their suburban homes confiscated by red-star-wearing commissars, or worse, being sold into sex slavery by neighborhood mullahs. Calling insanity what it is an act of love.
Every day on social media we see videos of inner-city youths bum-rushing retail stores and looting with impunity. Total mayhem. Yet the force field prevents criticism—let alone identification of the culprits. Something is profoundly wrong with this culture, and the only cure is ruthless denunciation and an end to enabling dystopia. That, too, is love.
As one of the world’s great wordsmiths, I resent being told what words I may or may not use. Imagine if, during World War II, the Japanese informed MacArthur and Admiral Nimitz that they couldn’t deploy the Marines or aircraft carriers—or else be called a bad name—and our leaders complied. Wars are not won by surrendering your most effective weapons. Sometimes the forbidden word is le mot juste. It says exactly what needs to be said—and with style.
Take the word RETARD. I enjoy it mostly because I’m told I can’t say it. I use it sparingly, but with precision.
Donald Trump used it to describe Tim Walz.
He didn’t apply it cruelly to a child with Down syndrome, yet the MSM and the Left lost their minds. Heads exploded. It was glorious.
The Somali community managed to pull off a $9 billion scam right under Tim Walz’s nose.
“Tampon Tim” claims ignorance. If that’s true, there is no more accurate word in the English language than retard.
Speech codes lead to national self-destruction. Truth—especially when delivered in sharp, colorful tones—is the best weapon in the war of woke insanity.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 12:15Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang emphasized in his Monday CES keynote that memory will be a major value driver across the AI universe, a view that aligns with our observation in 2H25 that data-center buildouts are aggressively absorbing DRAM and HBM capacity. With supply already tight and pricing soaring, this environment is translating into earnings tailwinds for memory producers, prompting UBS to say last week that the current memory upcycle could "turbo-charge" Samsung Electronics' profits.
"For storage, that is a completely unserved market today," Huang told the audience at CES on Monday. "This is a market that never existed, and this market will likely be the largest storage market in the world, basically holding the working memory of the world's AIs."
Chipmakers led gains on Tuesday after Huang highlighted storage as an "unserved market," with SanDisk soaring as much as 28%. Storage companies Western Digital and Seagate Technology also posted double-digit percentage gains.
Mizuho trading-desk analyst Jordan Klein told MarketWatch that Huang's comments are "bullish" for memory companies. He noted that Huang discussed "how important memory will be for AI use cases and inferencing, such as long reasoning and [key-value] cache to recall all user inquiries with agentic AI."
SanDisk and other memory and storage companies are "key beneficiaries" of the push for "AI inferencing and AI at the edge" in 2026, Bank of America analysts led by Wamsi Mohan told clients recently.
Chatbots: soaking up all the world's power, water and memory pic.twitter.com/L2mcdcLSko
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 24, 2025
Mohan expects tech firms to retain large amounts of data for training, analytics, and compliance purposes, with demand for storage "skyrocketing in tandem." In particular, he noted the growing demand for EVs, drones, surveillance, and sports technology.
Also, last week, UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois highlighted to clients the uptick in memory is expected to "turbo-charge earnings" for Samsung's memory business. The report is available in full here.
The latest DDR5 DRAM pricing on Amazon!
Last month, Goldman analyst Maho Kamiya told clients that mounting concerns about soaring memory prices pose new risks for Nintendo, which manufactures consumer electronics such as the popular Switch 2.
The great memory crunch has arrived.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 11:55Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has revised the naturalization tests that all applicants must pass to officially become citizens, the agency said in a Jan. 5 post on X.
Children participate in a U.S. citizenship ceremony at the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) district office in New York on Jan. 29, 2013. John Moore/Getty Images
“Our new version of the test will ensure all new citizens understand the privilege of citizenship and what it means to be an American,” the agency said.
USCIS did not provide more details regarding the specific changes it has made in the tests.
There are two naturalization tests administered by USCIS to applicants—one for English language skills and another for civics knowledge.
On the agency’s Naturalization Interview and Tests resource page, last updated on Oct. 31, 2025, USCIS said it was implementing an updated 2025 naturalization civics test to align with a Jan. 20 national security presidential action from President Donald Trump.
“During the civics test, you will answer important questions about American history, U.S. government, and civics,” the agency said.
“The 2025 naturalization civics test is an oral test consisting of 20 questions from the list of 128 civics test questions. You must answer 12 questions correctly to pass the 2025 test. You will fail the test if you answer nine of the 20 questions incorrectly.”
The new 2025 civic test is applicable to people who filed Form N-400 for naturalization after Oct. 20, 2025. Individuals who applied prior to this date will be administered the 2008 naturalization civics test, which requires applicants to correctly answer six out of 10 questions from a list of 100.
Some of the questions asked in the 2025 civics tests include the form of government in the United States, the number of amendments in the U.S. Constitution, explanation of rule of law, parts of the U.S. Congress, number of seats on the Supreme Court, the individual who wrote the Declaration of Independence, the war that ended slavery in the United States, and the name of an American Indian tribe, according to the test document.
There are special exemptions for lawful permanent residents aged 65 or older who have been residents for 20 or more years.
Such individuals need to study a set of 20 questions rather than the usual list of 128. Moreover, “you may also take the civics test in the language of your choice. The USCIS officer will ask you to answer 10 out of the 20 civics test questions with an asterisk. You must answer at least six out of 10 questions (or 60 percent) correctly to pass the 2025 version of the civics test,” the document said.
Official Language TestThe language test for naturalization requires that the applicant “demonstrate an understanding of the English language, including the ability to read, write, and speak basic English,” according to the USCIS.
Speaking and understanding skills will be determined by a USCIS officer during the eligibility interview.
In the reading test, an applicant has to read aloud one out of three sentences provided to demonstrate their ability. And for writing, they must write one out of three given sentences accurately.
On March 1, Trump signed a presidential action that designated English as the official language of the United States.
“From the founding of our Republic, English has been used as our national language. Our Nation’s historic governing documents, including the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, have all been written in English,” Trump wrote.
“It is therefore long past time that English is declared as the official language of the United States. A nationally designated language is at the core of a unified and cohesive society, and the United States is strengthened by a citizenry that can freely exchange ideas in one shared language.”
On Feb. 28, before the Trump action, the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) criticized the move, arguing it contradicts the nation’s founding principles and marginalizes millions of Americans.
“America is stronger when we embrace multilingualism. Over 350 languages are spoken in the U.S., expanding our global influence in trade, diplomacy, and business. Bilingual and multilingual individuals give our economy a competitive edge and strengthen our communities,” Roman Palomares, LULAC national president, said.
“Limiting language access is not just exclusionary—it harms our future. We must uplift, not restrict, the diversity that has made this nation a global leader.”
According to a March 17 report from Pew Research Center, 82 percent of U.S. adults in a survey said it was “extremely/very” or “somewhat” important to make English the official language of the United States.
Responses were split along political lines. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning individuals, 73 percent said it was “extremely/very” important for English to be a national language, compared to just 32 percent among Democrats and Democrat-leaning individuals.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 11:35The China-Japan spat now seems to be accelerating by the day, with Tokyo warning in the aftermath of Tuesday's dual use export curb announcement by China's commerce ministry that the fresh action could "impact more than 40% of Chinese exports to Japan" - according to Bloomberg.
In unveiling its fresh punitive measures Tuesday, marking a serious escalation, a Chinese government spokesperson railed against Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's "erroneous" comments from last November where she suggested her forces could defend Taiwan in a future invasion by China.
"These comments constitute a crude interference in China’s internal affairs, seriously violate the one-China principle and are extremely harmful in nature and impact," the statement said, followed by a warning that any entity or individual which violates the export ban will be held legally accountable. These new controls on 'military-civilian' dual use are likely to affect shipments of semiconductors and rare earth materials to Japan's Self-Defense Forces and defense industry firms - which is without doubt the intent, and signals that greater punishment and damage could be further implemented at any time.
Within hours of Beijing unveiling these measures, Masaaki Kanai, secretary general of the Japanese Foreign Ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, had "strongly protested and demanded the withdrawal of these measures."
Anadolu Agency
Kanai conveyed the formal diplomatic protest to the Chinese embassy's deputy chief of mission in Tokyo, Shi Yong. Kanai said the measures "deviate significantly from international practice, is absolutely unacceptable and deeply regrettable."
But Beijing isn't backing down, also after its sought-for formal retraction and apology from Takaichi has failed to materialize. Instead, Japan is bracing for continued incremental punitive measures. The latest includes China's Commerce Ministry further announcing an anti-dumping probe into Japan Dichlorosilane imports. According to the new statement and press release:
China's Ministry of Commerce announced on Wednesday that it has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of dichlorosilane originating from Japan. Dichlorosilane is a chemical critical to the manufacture of semiconductor chips.
The investigation is not scheduled to conclude until January next year, and could be extended for an additional six months if deemed necessary, according to a ministry statement. On Tuesday, the ministry announced control measures on the export of dual-use items to Japan.
According to a ministry spokesperson, the investigation was initiated after requests by domestic manufacturers in China.
"The preliminary evidence submitted by the applicant indicates that from 2022 to 2024, the volume of dichlorosilane imported from Japan showed an overall increasing trend, with its cumulative price decline reaching 31 percent," the spokesperson said.
But some analysts consider that there still a chance for de-escalation and walk-back, with Global risk consultancy Teneo describing that the lack of clarity in China’s announcement may be deliberate.
"The brief statement by China’s commerce ministry is vague, and the impact of the new measures could range from almost entirely symbolic to highly disruptive," the consultancy said. "By triggering concern in Japan about the ongoing availability of critical Chinese industrial inputs, the announcement puts immediate pressure on Takaichi to offer concessions," Teneo added.
"A plausible scenario is that the commerce ministry initially rejects a small handful of license applications, creating only minor supply-chain disruption but signaling potential for broader damage in future unless Tokyo takes conciliatory action."
Bloomberg noted overnight that shares tied to rare earths rose across Asia-Pacific markets within the day after the announcement. It reviews that Tokyo trading, Toyo Engineering Corp - which develops technology to extract rare earths from the seabed - surged 20%. And Cerium producer Daiichi Kigenso Kagaku-Kogyo Co jumped as much as 27%. Australian-based companies surged as well, with Lynas Rare Earths Ltd climbing as much as 16%, its biggest gain since July, and Australian Strategic Materials Ltd advancing nearly 10%.
On Wednesday a fresh Bloomberg headline further noted: "The Japan-China squabble is causing some jitters after a strong start to the year for the region’s stocks." It added: "The rally had also started to show signs of overheating. The 14-day relative strength index for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed above 70 this week, entering technical overbought territory for the first time since early October."
Despite the open question of just how the export controls will be implemented, China Daily has indeed confirmed that the restrictions will extend to rare earth-related products.
China had already been steadily retaliating through measures related to curbing trade, cultural exchanges, and tourism - coupled with threats of more punitive action to come. There have lately been some serious military 'close calls' as well.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 11:15By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank
You may already have buckled yourself up, but an arctic chill may also require you to wear an extra vest these days. President Trump and some officials in his administration amplified threats to take Greenland. Preferably by “buying” it, but by force if necessary.
The White House yesterday said it is discussing options for acquiring Greenland, including potential use of the military. The key reason put forward in a statement is that it sees this action as neccessary to “deter our adversaries in the Arctic region”. "The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. military is always an option at the commander-in-chief's disposal," the White House said.
Several government officials did try to take the sting out of that last sentence. US special envoy to Greenland, Jeff Landry, told CNBC that Trump isn’t ready to seize the island and the President “supports an independent Greenland,” whilst the Wall Street Journal reported that Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers during a classified briefing on Monday that recent administration threats against Greenland did not signal an imminent invasion and that the goal is to buy the island from Denmark.
Meanwhile US Senate Democrats have said they plan to introduce a resolution to block Trump from invading Greenland. The US has portrayed its action in Venezuela as support for the ‘arrest' of Maduro, which -some argue- offered the president more leeway. But the Greenland case may not be so easy to fit into that category.
Still, the threat remains wide open on the table now. And that this risks driving a big wedge between the US and its allies is clear. Earlier this week, Denmark’s Premier Mette Frederikson had already warned that, while she is taking the threats by the Trump administration seriously, “everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been established since the end of the Second World War”, should the US choose to attack another NATO country.
What is interesting, is that the US has long neglected its military presence on Greenland. Since 1951 it has had a Defense Agreement with Denmark, establishing the operation of Pituffik (Thule) Air Base on the island. During the Cold War this hosted up to 6,000 US personnel across several camps; today that presence has shrunk dramatically to roughly 150 service members. Last June Denmark’s parliament expanded US access to the island through the 2023 Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA), giving it broad rights to station personnel, store equipment, conduct maintenance and exercises and have jurisdiction over US troops.
The reference to these existing arrangements was also a key feature in a (quite unusual) joint statement by the leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and Denmark yesterday. It notes that “Arctic security remains a key priority for Europe and it is critical for international and transatlantic security. NATO has made clear that the Arctic region is a priority and European Allies are stepping up. We and many other Allies have increased our presence, activities and investments, to keep the Arctic safe and to deter adversaries. The Kingdom of Denmark – including Greenland – is part of NATO.” The statement emphasizes NATO unity and collective security in the Arctic and the importance of adhering to UN principles: sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of borders. It also declares that Greenland’s future is for its people and Denmark to decide.
How the situation and diplomatic activity around Greenland evolves in the coming weeks could also have a bearing on that other – and much more acute – dossier, namely Ukraine. On that front there was actually some positive news yesterday. After meeting in Paris with Zelenskyy and European leaders from the ‘coalition of the willing’, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said that “significant progress” had been made on a security guarantee framework.
With their Paris Declaration – Robust Security Guarantees for a Solid and Lasting Peace in Ukraine, European leaders clearly wanted to project some rare Euro-Atlantic unity. The statement suggests, among other things, that the US would support a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism and that there will be binding commitments to support Ukraine in the case of a future armed attack by Russia. If approved by Washington this would be a significant step forward, although many details still need to be fleshed out. It is also very unclear how this would land in Russia and –if Russia dismisses the plan– how allies and particularly the US would respond.
So far, markets have remained largely unfazed despite the geopolitical landslides that have been taking place in recent weeks. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high yesterday and so did the Eurostoxx 600 index. Whilst Treasury yields rose by 1 to 2 basis points, European yields slipped, as investors took their cues from mixed PMI surveys and relatively benign inflation data from the region. The euro also weakened vis-à-vis the dollar, with EURUSD falling below the 1.17 handle.
December PMI surveys for Spain and Italy showed contrasting developments, with Spain surprising positively (composite index up 0.5 points to 55.6) but Italy negatively (composite index down 3.5 points to 50.3). Together with small downward revisions in the French and German PMIs, the overall message is that the European economy likely entered a soft spot towards the end of 2025. This confirms our cautious view on the economy for the next several months.
Meanwhile, inflation data surprised to the downside. French inflation was down one notch in December, where expectations were for a slight rise. The headline print moderated to 0.8% from 0.9% whilst harmonized inflation eased to 0.7% from 0.8%. This print again underscores that France remains in the lower league when it comes to inflation in Europe. The fall in inflation was mainly attributed to a more pronounced decrease in energy prices, particularly petroleum, INSEE noted. Fresh food inflation accelerated, whilst the decline of prices in manufactured goods moderated to -0.4% y/y from -0.6% y/y. Services inflation stayed at 2.2% y/y.
In Germany, the fall in inflation was more pronounced. Harmonized inflation for December dropped no less than 0.6 percentage points to 2% (consensus: 2.2%). Although a fall in food and energy inflation added their bit, a significant fall in core inflation – in contrast to the French numbers – was a key driver for the German inflation rate. The national measure for core inflation dropped 0.3 percentage points. There were notable declines in prices of clothing and recreation. The latter tend to be volatile items and quite sensitive to distortions in seasonal patterns (such as the timing of holidays etc.), so not all of the drop in core inflation may stick as we head into 2026.
Overall, though, the benign inflation data from Germany and France shifted investor’s focus to the possibility that the ECB could still cut rates if both the economy and inflation were to slip further in the months ahead. The ECB doves have been relatively quiet of late, but these kind of numbers are sufficient to keep some speculation alive.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 10:15Update (1014ET):
"Donroe Doctrine" to clean up the Western Hemisphere was busy Wednesday morning, with the seizure of the Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) in the North Atlantic, followed by U.S. forces seizing a stateless dark-fleet tanker in the Caribbean region.
The seizure of Marinera is the headliner this morning, given that Russian warships and a submarine are nearby, raising the risk that the situation could spiral out of control after Moscow warned the Trump administration in recent days to back off the tanker.
Within the last hour, U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) wrote on X that U.S. forces "apprehended a stateless, sanctioned dark-fleet motor tanker without incident." SOUTHCOM said, "The interdicted vessel, M/T Sophia, was operating in international waters and conducting illicit activities in the Caribbean Sea. The U.S. Coast Guard is escorting M/T Sophia to the U.S. for final disposition."
SOUTHCOM concluded the post by signaling the Donroe Doctrine: "Through Operation Southern Spear, the Department of War is unwavering in its mission to crush illicit activity in the Western Hemisphere. We will defend our Homeland and restore security and strength across the Americas."
In a pre-dawn action this morning, the Department of War, in coordination with the Department of Homeland Security, apprehended a stateless, sanctioned dark fleet motor tanker without incident.
— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) January 7, 2026
The interdicted vessel, M/T Sophia, was operating in international waters and… pic.twitter.com/JQm9gHprPk
Welcome to the era of the Donroe Doctrine.
* * *
Update (0920ET):
U.S. European Command (EUCOM) confirmed on X that the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Department of Defense, seized the Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) for violating U.S. sanctions.
"The vessel was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by the USCGC Munro," EUCOM said.
The @TheJusticeDept & @DHSgov, in coordination with the @DeptofWar today announced the seizure of
— U.S. European Command (@US_EUCOM) January 7, 2026
the M/V Bella 1 for violations of U.S. sanctions. The vessel was seized in the North Atlantic pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by USCGC Munro. pic.twitter.com/bm5KcCK30X
EUCOM continued...
— U.S. European Command (@US_EUCOM) January 7, 2026
Read the earlier updates: Russian warships and submarines are nearby.
* * *
Update (0855ET):
NBC News reports that the U.S. Special Forces operation in the North Atlantic to seize a Russian-flagged oil tanker, the Marinera (formerly Bella 1), was successful.
U.S. officials told the outlet that the Marinera "has been secured" following a dramatic, weeks-long chase on the high seas.
The U.S. seized two oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela last month as part of President Trump's gunboat diplomacy. But why would a U.S. Coast Guard cutter and surveillance planes chase an empty, rusted, Russian-flagged tanker across the Atlantic unless there was potentially something far more valuable on board?
* * *
Update (0814ET):
The Russian outlet RT News has posted footage that appears to show U.S. military forces attempting to board the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera early Wednesday morning in the North Atlantic.
❗️ Military forces, presumably American, are attempting to board Russian-flagged civilian tanker 'Marinera' RIGHT NOW — RT source
— RT (@RT_com) January 7, 2026
RT has obtained first exclusive visual confirmation of the boarding attempt https://t.co/lWf62lN7hH pic.twitter.com/rn9xfLmNxi
Reuters reports that the U.S. is "attempting" to seize the Venezuela-linked oil tanker after a two-week chase involving a U.S. Coast Guard vessel and surveillance aircraft.
From like an hour ago or more, as the Americans got into position to attempt boarding.
— Lee Mitchell (@Lee_Mitchell91) January 7, 2026
A massive swarm of RAF jets were patrolling around the north sea, potentially shadowing the Russian Naval fleet on route to escort it. pic.twitter.com/DxxioNbLw6
More color on the operation from the outlet:
The officials, who were speaking on condition of anonymity, said the operation is being carried out by the Coast Guard and the U.S. military.
They added that Russian military vessels, including a submarine, were in the general vicinity when the operation took place.
Marinera made an abrupt heading change as the US MH-6 Little Bird, the 160th SOAR's smallest helicopter, approached the vessel.
MARINERA (9230880) just made a sudden southbound turn at 11:26 UTC at 60.9386, -16.37014. Decelerated from 9kn to 8kn speed. pic.twitter.com/dH8BnpF6r5
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) January 7, 2026
This is what the "Donroe" doctrine to clean up the Western Hemisphere looks like. However, certainly appears that conflict fears are on the rise ...
* * *
In what can only be described as straight out of a Cold War techno-thriller, The Hunt for Red October vibes, the U.S. Coast Guard is chasing a rusting oil tanker formerly known as Bella 1, now renamed Marinera, flying the Russian flag about 300 miles south of Iceland as it heads toward the North Sea.
On Tuesday, Russian outlet RT News posted an exclusive video on X showing Marinera being chased by a U.S. Coast Guard cutter in the North Atlantic.
BREAKING WORLD EXCLUSIVE: RT obtains FIRST footage of Russian-flagged civilian Marinera tanker being CHASED by US Coast Guard warship in the North Atlantic https://t.co/sNbqJkm5O5 pic.twitter.com/XtbBML3a6j
— RT (@RT_com) January 6, 2026
The Wall Street Journal then reported overnight that Russia is countering the Trump administration's attempt to seize Marinera by deploying a submarine and other warships to escort the allegedly now-empty tanker.
The chase in the North Atlantic follows last month's incident near Venezuelan waters, when the tanker - then stateless and flying a false flag - was subject to a U.S. judicial seizure order. As the Coast Guard attempted to board, the crew switched the ship's registration to Russia, prompting Moscow to demand that the U.S. halt its pursuit.
Trump's gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, along with a broader push for Western Hemisphere defense - what some have called the "Don-roe Doctrine" - has set the tone for the year: U.S. forces intend to control the seas in the Americas, not China and not Russia.
One key question is why Washington is hyper-focused on this particular tanker, given that the global dark fleet numbers more than 1,000 tankers hauling sanctioned crude worldwide. The ship's quick registration in Russia, without inspection or formalities, may only suggest that the tanker, which departed Venezuelan waters, could be carrying other cargo bound for Russia.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/07/2026 - 10:14Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.Employment expanded following six consecutive month of contraction.
The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee:
“In December, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 54.4 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than the November figure of 52.6 percent and a third consecutive month of expansion. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in December, registering 56 percent, 1.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 54.5 percent recorded in November. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in December, with a reading of 57.9 percent, 5 percentage points above November’s figure of 52.9 percent. The Employment Index expanded for the first time in seven months with a reading of 52 percent, a 3.1-percentage point improvement from the 48.9 percent recorded in November — the fifth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.
“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 51.8 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than the 54.1 percent recorded in November. This is the 13th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)
“The Prices Index registered 64.3 percent in December, its lowest level since a reading of 60.9 percent in March 2025. The December figure was a 1.1-percentage point drop from November’s reading of 65.4 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 13 straight months.br /> emphasis added
The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
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