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Ayatollah Khamenei Slams 'Outrageous' US 'Red Line' Demand Of Iran In Nuclear Talks 

Zero Hedge -

Ayatollah Khamenei Slams 'Outrageous' US 'Red Line' Demand Of Iran In Nuclear Talks 

After several days of back-and-forth public criticisms and US declarations of a "red line" - Iran's Supreme Leader has finally weighed in definitively on where things stand from Tehran's perspective.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the latest US demands that Iranian enrichment be taken down to zero "excessive and outrageous," according to state media. He further expressed doubts that current nuclear talks with the Trump administration will actually lead anywhere.

"I don't think nuclear talks with the U.S. will bring results. I don't know what will happen," Khamenei said. He further called on Washington to cease making over-the-top demands in nuclear talks. Tehran officials have of late also called the Trump administration's stance "contradictory" - after President Trump attempted overtures, sprinkled with direct threats, in his Iran-related rhetoric while in the Gulf last week.

"The American side in these indirect talks should avoid nonsensical remarks," the country's top religious cleric and highest authority continued. "Saying they will not allow Iran to enrich is a big mistake. No-one waits for their permission."

The Ayatollah made the remarks while speaking at a memorial honoring late President Ebrahim Raisi, who one year ago died when his helicopter crashed in northern mountains:

He praised Raisi, a fellow hardline cleric, for refusing direct talks with the US while in office.

"He clearly said 'no' without ambiguity," Khamanei noted, adding that Raisi did not let enemies "drag Iran to the negotiating table through threats or tricks".

Khamenei said nuclear talks under Raisi's predecessor, the moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani, had failed to achieve results, and that he did not think there would be any breakthrough under his successor, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is a reformist.

President Trump had last week said the Iranians "sort of" agreed to the terms of a deal following four rounds of talks mediated by Oman, going back to mid-April.

Also last week, a top Iranian nuclear official said it was possible that Iran could given up enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. But this was clearly premature, and the Ayatollah is now seeking to clarify the Islamic Republic's stance.

Trump envpy Steve Witkoff on the Sunday news shows made clear that the issue of abandoning enrichment is a "red line" from the US administration. He described to ABC the "red line" for Iran is no enrichment, not even one percent. And yet the past couple decades have seen Iran time and again view this as a non-starter.

"Everything begins… with a deal that does not include enrichment… because enrichment enables weaponization, and we will not allow a bomb to get here," he added.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 08:45

Futures Slide After Monday's Historic Retail-Driven Rebound

Zero Hedge -

Futures Slide After Monday's Historic Retail-Driven Rebound

US equity futures are weaker with Tech underperforming, threatening a six-day winning streak that propelled the S&P 500 to the brink of a bull market. Then again, Monday started off even worse and then we saw the biggest burst of retail buying on record resulting in one of the biggest intraday reversals in recent history (according to JPM, more here), so brace for more unexpected moves. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futs drop 0.3% with Mag7 stocks mixed amid weakness in semis into today’s Google I/O developer conference; healthcare is leading Defensives over Cyclicals. The yield curve is twisting steeper with the 10Y yield flat and USD weakening. Commodities are mixed with crude down, natgas up, base metals down, precious up, and Ags generally higher. Macro data is light, with just the Philly non-mfg PMI on deck ahead of Thursday’s Flash PMIs & Claims prints, but we have another round of Fed speakers where the message continues to be patience.

In premarket trading,  Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Tesla +1.4%, Alphabet +0.5%, Nvidia -0.2%, Microsoft -0.1%, Apple -0.3%, Amazon -0.2%, Meta Platforms -0.3%). Home Depot gained 2.2% after maintaining its guidance for the fiscal year as US sales ticked up, a sign that consumer spending has held up despite economic turbulence. Vipshop’s US-listed shares (VIPS) decline 8% after the China-based online marketplace reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook. here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Air Lease (AL) rises 1.2% as Citi upgrades to buy, saying a possible capital allocation creates a “tactical opportunity.”
  • ASP Isotopes (ASPI) jumps 15% after signing financing and supply agreements with TerraPower to support the construction of a new uranium enrichment facility.
  • ImmunityBio (IBRX) rises 4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the drug developer to overweight, saying the launch of the firm’s newly approved bladder cancer drug Anktiva is off to a strong start.
  • Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) rises 6% as the customer relationship management software company will join the S&P Midcap 400 Index before trading opens May 22.
  • Pony AI ADRs (PONY) jump 5% after the Chinese autonomous-driving company reported revenue for the first quarter of $14 million vs $12.5 million year-over-year.
  • Trip.com (TCOM) US-listed shares fall 4% after the online travel agency reported its first-quarter results.
  • Yalla (YALA) falls 8% after the social-network operator saw a drop in the number of paying users on its platform.

Ironically, as everyone was expecting a Monday metldown in US treasuries - and got just the opposite - the big move was in Japan, where bonds cratered and long-end yields soared to a record high after a near-failed government bond auction saw the weakest bid-to-cover demand since 2012 and the biggest tail since 1987, pointing screaming to increasing concerns about investor support as the Bank of Japan dials back its huge debt holdings.

As markets continue to meltup, investors are looking for clarity on market direction, with strategists in a Bloomberg poll now far more optimistic about European stocks than the US market. Jamie Dimon, meanwhile, has been warning about risks from inflation and credit spreads to geopolitics. “The market came down 10%, it’s back up 10%; I think that’s an extraordinary amount of complacency.”

Meanwhile, the threat of US tariffs showed up in Chinese shipments of smartphones, which fell 72% in April, according to China’s customs data.

Tech has been the main driver of the recent market bounce and will remain in focus into next week’s key earnings release from Nvidia. Google is holding its I/O developer conference, with the keynote speech at 4:30 pm ET. Broader deployment of AI mode on Google search will be a big focus, Bloomberg Intelligence said. 

A slate of Fed speakers will be closely watched today for clues on the outlook for the US economy and any commentary on the Moody’s downgrade. Two Fed officials suggested on Monday that policymakers may not be ready to lower rates before September as they confront a murky economic outlook. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 climbs 0.4%, on pace for a fourth session of gains, led by utilities, telecoms and health care. Germany’s DAX topped 24,000 for the first time. Among individual stocks, Orange advances after Bloomberg reported that Patrick Drahi is weighing a SFR sale. Wall Street strategists are betting European stocks will enjoy their best performance relative to the US in at least two decades as the region’s economic outlook improves. While US stocks have rallied in recent weeks, two Federal Officials warned on Monday that they would adopt a wait-and-see approach before lowering interest rates. Here are the most notable European movers:

  • Orange shares rise as much as 3.1% after Bloomberg reported that billionaire Patrick Drahi’s Altice France is considering the sale of a controlling stake in SFR, raising hopes of further industry consolidations in a competitive market.
  • Smiths Group gains as much as 4.4%, to highest since Jan. 31, after the UK engineering firm says full-year organic revenue growth is expected to be toward the top end of its guided range.
  • SoftwareOne shares gain as much as 4.5% after Kepler Cheuvreux raised the recommendation on the stock to buy from hold saying cost-cutting is gaining traction and 1Q should show early margin recovery.
  • Greggs shares rise as much as 8.8% to a three-month high after the UK food-on-the-go retailer gave a trading update in which it said it is seeing an improved performance, and kept its expectations for the year unchanged.
  • Diploma shares surge as much as 18%, hitting a record high, as analysts hail the building components supplier’s positive first-half performance, mainly driven by its Controls unit.
  • SSP shares rise as much as 5.3%, to the highest in three months, after the operator of food and beverage outlets at travel locations reiterated its full-year outlook, in spite of softer current trading in North America amid weaker travel demand.
  • Schaeffler shares rise as much as 7.6% after the German auto parts firm was double-upgraded to buy at Bank of America, which sees the firm’s adjusted Ebit doubling by 2028.
  • Orsted shares rose as much as 15% the Trump administration lifted an order that halted construction on Equinor’s $5 billion project off the coast of New York.
  • Fincantieri shares rise as much as 9.7% a record high, after it unveiled targets for a newly created Underwater Armament Systems unit.
  • UBS shares declined as much as 3.5%, the most since April 9, after Bloomberg News reported the lender is likely to face defeat in its effort to water down the Swiss government’s law that could force it to maintain up to $25 billion in extra capital.
  • Salmar falls as much as 5.6%, the most in almost a month, after the Norwegian seafood and salmon company reported its latest earnings, which DNB Carnegie describes as a “big miss.”
  • Kingfisher falls as much as 4.8% as Barclays cuts its recommendation on the UK construction and DIY supplier to underweight from equalweight. A 25% rally this year is “overly generous,” the bank says.

Asian stocks gained for the first time in four sessions, with Hong Kong-listed shares leading the advance thanks to a slew of positive corporate developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%, the most in nearly a week, with Alibaba and Sony among key gainers. Xiaomi shares jumped after the CEO said the company is starting mass production of a new chip, while Chinese healthcare stocks surged after biotech company 3SBio entered into a pact with Pfizer. Shares in India slipped.  Momentum is returning to Asian stocks with tensions easing on the trade front while global growth seems intact. Chinese battery giant CATL gained in its debut in Hong Kong after wrapping up the world’s largest initial public offering this year, showing the appetite for such themes in the region.

The RBA delivered a 25bp cut at their May meeting, as widely expected, but with clear dovish elements to the meeting as a whole. The statement was materially more positive on the progress made on the inflation mandate, with inflation expected to remain around the RBA’s 2-3% target band, and with a removal of the previous language on being determined to “sustainably return inflation to target”. The updated macro projections were also materially softer, in-line with our economists’ expectations, with lower profiles for growth and inflation, and a higher path for the unemployment rate. Perhaps the most notable dovish news though was Governor Bullock noting that the Board discussed a 50bp cut at today’s meeting, suggesting a clearer break from their previously more cautious thinking. Goldman economists revised their RBA call to include an additional cut at the November meeting, in addition to the cuts they continue to expect at the July and August meetings.

In Fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slips 0.1%. The Aussie lags G-10 peers, down 0.6% versus the greenback after RBA Governor Michele Bullock said the board considered a 50bps rate cut before opting for 25.  The Dollar continues to underperform, but within tight ranges this morning. EUR (+10bps) price action remains constructive after the trading desk’s flow bias being skewed towards selling yesterday. Our Spot Traders (KBS) note that there was a lack of interest from HFs to chase yesterday - partly an element of some still tending to prior wounds but we seem to have hit the limit of false starts without a clear identifiable catalyst that HFs are willing to chase. USDJPY is trading -25bps lower after a choppy price action overnight. Despite continued spot moves lower in USDJPY and increased speculation that there may be some kind of “currency deal” as part of trade negotiations, our traders noted that downside USDJPY gamma has repriced lower (1m ATM -0.25v vs the roll) with the market struggling to digest front end vol supply the last 48hrs. USDCNH is trading +10bps higher after jumping on headlines that cut benchmark lending rates for the first time since October. The outlier overnight was AUD (-70bps), amid the dovish 25bps cut from the RBA.

In rates, treasuries are mixed as US session gets under way with the yield curve steeper. Front-end yields are 1bp-2bp lower on the day while 30-year is higher by around 3bp near 4.93%. Treasury curve pivots around little-changed 7-year sector, with 10-year near 4.46%, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 1.8bp and 2.5bp. Bunds and gilts outperform following softer-than-expected German PPI data and pricing of a £4 billion 2056 syndicated gilt issue. Gilts lead a rally in European bonds, with UK 10-year yields down 3bps to 4.63%. Traders shrugged off BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill’s warning that interest rates may be coming down too quickly. US economic data calendar includes only a regional indicator, however several Fed speakers are slated. Treasury auctions ahead this week include $16 billion 20-year new issue Wednesday and $18 billion 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday

In commodities, Oil pares earlier gains seen after Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei voiced skepticism over talks with the US. WTI drops 0.2% to near $62.50.  Spot gold rises $8 to around $3,238/oz.

The US economic data calendar includes May Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Bostic, Barkin (9am), Collins (9:30am), Musalem (1pm), Kugler (5pm), Hammack and Daly (7pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.2%,
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%, 
  • Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%, 
  • DAX +0.2%, 
  • CAC 40 little changed
  • 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.45%
  • VIX +0.3 points at 18.44
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.1% at 1223.55, 
  • euro +0.2% at $1.1262
  • WTI crude -0.1% at $62.6/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Freedom caucus chair Harris said the votes are not there for the Trump bill and predicts a deal on the tax bill will be delayed until June.
  • Trump has claimed that Russia and Ukraine  will “immediately” begin negotiations on preparations for peace talks, but signaled that he was leaving Moscow and Kyiv to find a deal without the US as a broker. FT
  • Crypto scored a big win after a group of Democrats dropped their opposition to stablecoin legislation. The bill may pass this week. BBG
  • Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said negotiations with the US over his country’s nuclear program are unlikely to result in a deal and called the Trump administration’s latest demands on Iran “outrageous.”
  • China cut benchmark lending rates for the first time since October on Tuesday, while major state banks lowered deposit rates as authorities work to ease monetary policy to help buffer the economy from the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war. RTRS
  • China’s smartphone exports to the US fell 72% last month, outpacing an overall 21% drop in shipments. At the same time, the value of phone component exports to India roughly quadrupled. BBG
  • The Bank of Japan will sound out market participants this week to gauge their views on how aggressively it should proceed with quantitative tightening as yields surge nearly a year after it began scaling back its huge bond purchases. BBG
  • Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said on Tuesday there was no change to Tokyo's stance of demanding an elimination of U.S. tariffs in bilateral trade negotiations.
  • Tokyo will not rush into clinching a trade deal if doing so risked hurting the country's interests, he said. RTRS
  • India is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches and expects to reach an interim agreement before July, when President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in, according to officials in New Delhi familiar with the matter. BBG
  • Donald Trump plans to go to the Capitol today to push House Republicans to back his tax-cut bill. Speaker Mike Johnson’s meeting with holdout GOP members from high-tax states failed to produce a deal on SALT. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

  • Japan is reportedly mulls accepting US tariff reduction, not exemption, according to Kyodo. The Japanese government is reportedly considering the option of accepting a reduction in the rate of additional tariffs and reciprocal tariffs on automobiles and other items. Due to the US, according to sources, refusing to eliminate tariffs in prior negotiations and is said to have "indicated its intention to exclude additional tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminium, which are important to Japan, from the talks".
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent will travel to Canada to participate in the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, while he will focus on the need to address global economic imbalances and non-market practices.
  • Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said Japan and the US conducted working-level talks on bilateral trade on Monday, while he added there was no change to Japan's stance of demanding the elimination of US tariffs. It was also reported that the US and Japan could hold talks as soon as this Friday although US Treasury Secretary Bessent is not expected to attend, according to Kyodo.
  • Taiwan's President Lai said tariff talks with the US are going smoothly, while he added that Taiwan is to initiate a national wealth fund and is to broaden economic connections with nations other than the US.
  • India is discussing a US trade deal structured in three tranches and expects to reach an interim agreement before July.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were marginally higher as the region took impetus from the rebound stateside where the major indices gradually recouped the losses triggered by the US rating downgrade, and both the S&P 500 and the Dow notched six-day win streaks. ASX 200 was led by outperformance in tech and financials, while the attention was on the RBA which delivered a  widely expected rate cut. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open in tandem with a surge in USD/JPY but then gave back the majority of the spoils amid currency fluctuations and with little in the way of fresh catalysts for Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat after China's largest banks cut deposit rates and slashed the benchmark Loan Prime Rates by 10bps as guided by PBoC Governor Pan, while sentiment was also underpinned by a jump in CATL shares on its Hong Kong debut.

Top Asian News

  • China's state planner said they will make greater efforts to attract and utilise foreign capital, while China is drafting loan management rules for renewal projects and most policies will be implemented before end of June.
  • BoJ releases briefing material used at a meeting with bond market participants: notes some members said JGB market functionality is improving as a trend due to the BoJ taper. Some look for an eventual end to bond buying, some are after bigger cuts in the next plan. Some seek substantial cuts in one go. Deteriorating demand-supply for super-long JGBs is not something the BoJ can fix.

RBA

  • RBA cut the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, while it stated that inflation continues to moderate and that the outlook remains uncertain. RBA affirmed that maintaining low and stable inflation is the priority and the board judged that the risks to inflation have become more balanced, as well as assessed that this move on rates will make monetary policy somewhat less restrictive. Furthermore, the RBA stated that headline inflation is likely to rise over the coming year to around the top of the band as temporary factors unwind and the remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply. RBA also released its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy which noted that the escalation of global trade conflict a key downside risk to economy and that the global growth outlook was downgraded, while it added that uncertainty has increased due to US tariff policies and it trimmed its core domestic inflation forecasts.
  • Governor Bullock: prepared to take further rate actions if required; price increases have slowed; Bullock adds this was a confident cut in rates; There was a discussion between a 50bps cut or a 25bps cut; discussed holding rates or cutting. Cannot say where the cash rate will end up, does not endorse market pricing (Note: ~55bps of cuts currently seen by year-end).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened modestly firmer across the board and have traded within a tight range thus far, given the lack of pertinent updates. European sectors are mixed, and aside from the top performer, the breadth of the market is fairly narrow. Utilities takes the top spot, with sentiment in wind names boosted after the Trump administration lifted a stop-work on Equinor’s (+1.3%) New York offshore wind farm project; the name is higher by around 1.5% - peers such as Orsted (+14%) have also been edging higher.

Top European News

  • BoE's Pill says "dissenting vote stems from a concern that the pace of withdrawal of monetary policy restriction since last summer – quarterly cuts of 25bp – is too rapid given the balance of risks to price stability". Dissent was in line with his preference for “cautious and gradual” cuts in Bank Rate expressed over the past twelve months. Would characterise his dissenting vote as favouring a ‘skip’ in the quarterly pattern of Bank Rate cuts. It should not be seen as favouring a halt to (still less a reversal of) that withdrawal of restriction. Is concerned that structural changes in the price and wage setting behaviour have increased the intrinsic persistence of the UK inflation process. The underlying disinflation continues. The prospective path of Bank Rate from here is downward. Dissent from the most recent decision does not reflect a fundamental difference with the MPC. Says "we should not be dependent on how the data turns out". Can't assume that the inflation "pain" of new economic shocks will dissipate quickly. Agrees with the MPC that there is an easing in the labour markets, has questions over the pace. Some key pay indicators "remain quite strong".
  • ECB's Schnabel says disinflation is on track, though new shocks could pose new challenges. Tariffs could be disinflationary in the short run but result in upside risk over the medium term. "We are facing a historical opportunity to foster the international role of the euro" & "When the inflation regime changes, we must be ready to respond swiftly".
  • German VCI Chemical Industry Association: Q1 Production +0.6% Y/Y; Revenue +1.8% Y/Y; notes that production is expected to stagnate this year and industry sales will decrease slightly.

FX

  • After a contained start, DXY has extended on Monday's downside which was largely attributed to the Moody's downgrade on the US on Friday. Newsflow on the trade front has been non-incremental aside from a Reuters sources piece noting that the US Treasury does not anticipate any trade deal announcements at the G7 Finance Meeting in Canada this week.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1931 vs exp. 7.2112 (Prev. 7.1916). Today's speaker slate includes Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack. DXY is just about holding above the 100 mark.
  • EUR fractionally firmer vs. the USD with not a great deal in terms of Eurozone newsflow aside from ongoing ECB speak with Executive Board member Schnabel noting that disinflation is on track, though new shocks could pose new challenges. EUR/USD sits towards the top end of Monday's 1.1169-1.1288 range.
  • JPY at the top of the G10 leaderboard with some of the move attributed to moves in Japanese yields with the 30yr JGB yield hitting its highest level since its debut since 1999 following a soft JGB auction overnight. On the trade front, Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said Japan and the US conducted working-level talks on bilateral trade on Monday. Note, Japanese Finance Minister Kato and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are expected to discuss exchange rates on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Canada this week. USD/JPY has delved as low as 144.10 but stopped shy of the 144 mark.
  • GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD and steady vs. the EUR. This morning has seen remarks from BoE Chief Economist Pill, who dissented at the 8th May rate decision by voting for an unchanged rate vs. consensus for a 25bps cut. Pill noted that his dissenting vote stemmed from a concern that the pace of withdrawal of monetary policy restriction since last summer is too rapid, given the balance of risks to price stability. He added that his vote should be seen as a skip and not a halt to the withdrawal of the restriction process. The remarks had little follow-through to GBP; currently around 1.3370.
  • Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD with AUD lagging across the majors post-RBA. As expected, the RBA pulled the trigger on a 25bps cut whilst offering a cautious view on the outlook and lowering its inflation forecasts in its accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy. At the follow-up press conference, AUD/USD hit a session low at 0.6409 after Governor Bullock revealed that the board discussed cutting by 25bps or 50bps.

Fixed Income

  • JGBs were initially firmer, in-fitting with peers after Monday’s eventual intraday recovery from Moody’s-driven pressure. However, upside in Japan was limited into supply. But a poor 20yr outing caused JGBs to slip from 134.40 to a 138.78 base - pressure which has since pared.
  • USTs experienced a slight bearish blip on the above auction. However, Monday’s intraday recovery remained intact for USTs overnight and the benchmark has since extended to a 110-14+ high, eyeing 110-21+ from last week as the next point of resistance. Today's speaker slate includes Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Daly & Hammack.
  • Bunds a little firmer today, in-fitting with peers. Early doors remarks from Schnabel this morning, though nothing that has fundamentally changed the narrative. Numerous speakers ahead incl. Cipollone, Knot & Nagel. Similarly, no move to German Producer Prices printing lower than expectations and the prior, driven primarily by energy prices for both Y/Y & M/M components. Continues to rebound from Monday’s pressure, at best has been 15 ticks above that session’s 130.60 peak. German 10yr and 30yr auctions were well received but had little impact on German paper.
  • Gilts are firmer and currently outperforming. Outperformance which comes as Gilts didn’t get as much time to benefit from Monday’s late-door rebound and as the UK benchmark was that session’s underperformer, given EU-UK updates. As it stands, at the upper-end of a 91.45-91.91 band. BoE’s Pill outlined that his vote in May to leave rates unchanged was a “skip”. In fitting with his preference for “cautious and gradual” cuts and stemmed from a view that the recent quarterly pace “is too rapid given the balance of risks to price stability”. No move in Gilts to his speech.
  • Hong Kong pension fund managers are reportedly sounding the alarm of potential forced selling of US Treasury holdings following Moody's downgrading US' rating, according to Bloomberg sources Hong Kong Investment Fund Association (HKFIA) has recommended that an exception to the maximum 10% holding rule is made for US Treasuries, to allow funds to invest above the limit even if the US is rated one notch below AAA, according to the sources. Japan's R&I still has an AAA rating (outlook stable) on the US, and is not considering a downgrade currently "don't believe the situation described there has significantly changed"
  • UK price guidance for new 5.375% 2056 Gilt in sale via syndication seen +1.75bps to +2.25bps over 4.25% 2055 Gilt, orders over GBP 70bln.

Commodities

  • Crude is lower this morning despite a softer dollar but amid a cautious risk tone in Europe and following some of the more sanguine tones from US President Trump regarding Russia, whilst upside was seen on less conciliatory commentary from the Iranian Supreme Leader. He said that he "does not think nuclear talks with the US will be successful", via Mehr news. Brent Jul'25 rose from USD 65.07/bbl to USD 66.00/bbl over three minutes - a move which has since mostly faded.
  • Relatively flat and lacklustre trade across precious metals amid a lack of pertinent macro drivers this morning, and following a relatively contained session on Monday. Spot gold resides in a current USD 3.204.67-3.232.85/oz range.
  • Mixed trade across base metals and in narrow ranges amid a lack of pertinent catalysts during the European session, whilst the broader risk tone remains cautious. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,443.05-9,520.90/t.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei says "I don't think nuclear talks with the US will be successful"; via Mehr news. Says to the US that they must remain from making outrageous demands. Saying that Iran will not be allowed to enrich uranium is excessive and outrageous.
  • "Israel Broadcasting Corporation: Netanyahu extends the stay of the Israeli negotiating team in Doha for an additional day", according to Alhadath.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu says "Gaza war could end "tomorrow" if hostages return and Hamas leaders lay down their arms", via Sky News Arabia.
  • Iran has received a proposal for the next round of indirect negotiations with the US, according to Iran International.
  • "Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: The time and place of the next round of nuclear negotiations with the United States have not yet been decided", according to Sky News Arabia

Geopolitics: Russia-Ukraine

  • US President Trump said the US isn't stepping back from Russia-Ukraine negotiations and that it would be helpful to host Ukraine-Russia talks at the Vatican, while he repeated it is not his war and thinks something is going to happen with Russia and believes Putin wants to stop. Furthermore, Trump said he has a red line in his head on when he will stop pushing on Russia-Ukraine but won't say what that red line is and noted there could be a time when Russia sanctions will happen.
  • Kremlin spokesman said US President Trump and Russian President Putin talked about a direct conversation between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky although there is no decision yet on the place for the next direct contact between Russia and Ukraine. The spokesman stated there cannot be a deadline for preparing a memorandum between Russia and Ukraine, as well as noted that everyone is interested in a speedy settlement in Ukraine and that Russia is interested in eliminating the root causes of the conflict.

US Event Calendar

  • Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg activity survey

Central Bank Speakers

  • 9:00 am: Fed’s Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
  • 9:00 am: Fed’s Barkin Gives Speech at Richmond Fed Conference
  • 9:30 am: Fed’s Collins Hosts Fed Listens Event in New Hampshire
  • 1:00 pm: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy, Policy
  • 5:00 pm: Fed’s Kugler Gives Commencement Address

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday felt like we were somewhere along the line of a "death by a thousand cuts" with regards to the US fiscal situation. Hard to know where in that thousand we are but probably much nearer a thousand than at zero even as yesterday saw an initial sell off reverse as the session went on. At the end of the day the loss of the final US triple-A rating late on Friday night doesn't change anything much immediately but it keeps the drip, drip, drip of poor fiscal news building up against the debt sustainability dam in the background. Anyway, that's enough of the metaphors.

In yesterday's CoTD (link here) I highlighted that Moody's base case is now for US deficits to hit nearly 9% by 2035 and asked in a flash poll whether this would happen, or how it would be avoided or dealt with if it did. I'll keep the poll open for a couple of hours before publishing the results in my CoTD this London lunchtime. See it here. It should only take less than 5 seconds and all views very welcome.

We saw a large round trip in Treasuries around the news, with the 30yr yield briefly reaching its highest intraday level since 2023, at 5.035%, before paring back that move to close at 4.90%, -4.1bps lower on the day and virtually in line with where we were immediately before the news late on Friday. That recovery started shortly after the US open and continued as the session went on. It perhaps indicates the slow moving trend of overseas investors selling Treasuries but domestic investors increasing their holdings.

Earlier on, the cross-asset moves had seen a minor rerun of what happened after Liberation Day as US assets lost ground across the board. The S&P 500 recovered from -1.05% at the lows to end +0.09% higher. The US asset that struggled the most was the dollar, with the index (-0.72%) seeing only a modest recovery from its -1.02% intra-day low. That dollar decline repeated the early April parallels of capital flight scenarios often seen in emerging markets, where the currency struggles even though rates are going up.

This is coming at a delicate time, because the US administration are seeking to pass an extension to the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which are currently due to expire at the end of 2025. My CoTD showed that the CBO believe that the US federal debt held by the public will surge to 220% by 2055 if the tax cuts are extended, with the deficit reaching 12% of GDP. Again feel free to vote in the CoTD flash poll if you want to express a view as to whether something happens way before we get to these type of levels or whether we will take it in our strides like every other debt / deficit landmark in recent years.

In terms of that bond move in more detail, the selloff was initially very aggressive, with the 30yr yield reaching 5.035% and on track for its highest close since 2023 and actually higher for only six business days since 2007. However, that was then pared back, and it actually ended the day -4.1bps lower at 4.90%. Similarly, the 10yr yield hit an intraday high of 4.56%, but eventually closed -3.0bps lower at 4.45%. So the initial fears of the day ultimately didn’t materialise as US buyers stepped in, and at the front end, the 2yr yield fell -2.4bps to 3.98%. Overnight, yields are moving less than a basis point across the curve.

Similarly to the rates move, the S&P 500 rallied from more than -1% down at the open to +0.09% by the close, marking its sixth consecutive gain. Defensive sectors including healthcare (+0.96%) and consumer staples (+0.42%) posted the strongest advances. By contrast, tech stocks didn't fully recover, with the Magnificent 7 down -0.25% after its best weekly performance in over two years. The small cap Russell 2000 (-0.42%) also lost ground. And reflecting the pick up in volatility, the VIX index rose (+0.90pts) rose from Friday’s seven-week low to 18.14pts.

Whilst the US fiscal news dominated attention, in the geopolitical space we had President Trump holding a call with President Putin, but this delivered little new on resolving the war in Ukraine. Trump posted following the call that Ukraine and Russia would “immediately start negotiations”. However, Trump’s comments did not repeat earlier threats of new sanctions against Russia or put immediate pressure on Moscow to deliver a ceasefire and his post suggested that the US might now take more of a backseat in the talks. Meanwhile, Putin was rather vague on the upcoming talks, again referring to the “need to eliminate the root causes of this crisis.”

Otherwise yesterday, several Fed officials signalled they weren’t in a hurry to cut rates. For instance, Vice Chair Jefferson said “I believe that it is appropriate that we wait and see how the policies evolve over time and their impact”. Similarly, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said “I think we’ll have to wait three to six months to start to see where this settles out” and reiterated his expectation of only one more rate cut this year. Meanwhile, New York Fed President Williams said “It’s not going to be that in June we’re going to understand what’s happening here, or in July”. And Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted “It’s really just wait and see until we get more information.” So it was little surprise that investors continue to see a near-term rate cut as unlikely, with only a 35% chance of a cut priced by the July meeting.

Earlier in Europe, markets had put in a much steadier performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.13%) just about posting a small gain. That was echoed on the rates side too, where yields on 10yr bunds (-0.2bps), OATs (-0.4bps) and BTPs (+0.1bps) all saw little change. In the meantime, the UK and the EU also reached an agreement that deepened ties between the two after Brexit. Among others, the UK agreed an extension of EU fishing rights, in return for the removal of most border checks on farm exports. That came alongside a defence and security agreement, along with a potential youth mobility scheme, although the latter will be subject to further discussion. Our UK economists looked at the deal yesterday (link here), and their estimates show the long-run benefits to be around 0.5% of GDP by 2040.

For those of us in the UK fed up by not being able to use e-gates in the EU the deal only refers to the "potential use of eGates where appropriate". I've been in so many long queues in the last couple of years when eGates have been empty.
In Asia risk sentiment has been helped after China’s central bank announced cuts to key lending rates for the first time since October reinforcing expectations of looser monetary policy to support the country’s economy (more below). Across the region, the Hang Seng (+1.29%) is leading gains while the CSI (+0.62%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.38%) are also edging higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.26%), the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.54%) are gaining but with the KOSPI (+0.05%) slipping back towards flat. S&P 500 (-0.29%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.43%) futures are giving back some of yesterday's recovery from the lows.

Coming back to China, the PBOC cut the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR), the reference rate for pricing all new loans and outstanding floating rate loans, to 3.0% from 3.1% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%. Meanwhile the RBA have just cut rates 25bps (as expected) as I finish this off with the presser ongoing. So far it leans dovishly.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Canada’s CPI and German PPI for April, along with the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for May for the Euro Area. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler, Hammack and Daly, the ECB’s Wunsch, Knot and Cipollone, and the BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Home Depot.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 08:36

US Senate Moves Forward With GENIUS Stablecoin Bill

Zero Hedge -

US Senate Moves Forward With GENIUS Stablecoin Bill

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

The US Senate has voted to advance a key stablecoin-regulating bill after Democratic senators blocked an earlier attempt to move the bill forward over concerns about President Donald Trump’s sprawling crypto empire.

A key procedural vote on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, or GENIUS Act, passed in a 66-32 vote on May 19 local time.

Several Democrats, including Mark Warner, Adam Schiff and Ruben Gallego, changed their votes to pass the motion to invoke cloture, which will now set the bill up for debate on the Senate floor.

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill’s key backers, said on May 15 that she thinks it’s a “fair target” to have the GENIUS Act passed by May 26 — Memorial Day in the US.

The US Senate voted 66-32 to advance debate on the GENIUS stablecoin bill. Source: US Senate

Several Democratic senators withdrew support for the bill on May 8, blocking a motion to move it forward, citing concerns over potential conflicts of interest involving Trump’s crypto ventures and the bill’s Anti-Money Laundering provisions.

Warner expressed concerns about Trump’s crypto ventures in a statement before the vote, but said the US couldn’t “afford to keep standing on the sidelines” while the crypto industry evolves.

“We cannot allow that corruption to blind us to the broader reality: blockchain technology is here to stay. If American lawmakers don’t shape it, others will — and not in ways that serve our interests or democratic values.”
Warren says bill won’t stop Trump’s “crypto corruption”

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, a longtime crypto skeptic, was one of the strongest opponents of the stablecoin bill, arguing before the vote that it failed to address Trump’s “blatant crypto corruption.”

Trump and his family have recently launched various crypto projects, which include memecoins, a crypto platform, a crypto mining company that plans to go public and a stablecoin that has quickly grown to be the seventh-largest by value, CoinGecko data shows.

”Trump and his family have already pocketed hundreds of millions of dollars from his crypto ventures, and they stand to make hundreds of millions more from his stablecoin, USD1, if this bill passes,” she said.

Senator Bill Hagerty introduced the GENIUS Act on Feb. 4, which seeks to regulate the nearly $250 billion stablecoin market, currently dominated by Tether and Circle’s USDC.

The bill requires stablecoins to be fully backed, have regular security audits and approval from federal or state regulators. Only licensed entities can issue stablecoins, while algorithmic stablecoins are restricted.

Hagerty’s stablecoin bill builds on the discussion draft he submitted for former Representative Patrick McHenry’s Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act in October.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 08:05

Chinese Smartphone Exports To US Crashed In April

Zero Hedge -

Chinese Smartphone Exports To US Crashed In April

New customs data from China shows that smartphone shipments to the U.S. collapsed 72% in April to below $700 million—the lowest level since 2011. The plunge coincided with the peak of the U.S.-China trade war, as the Trump administration imposed up to 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, disrupting tech supply chains. However, those levies have since been significantly scaled back to 30% as of May.

Using data from China's General Administration of Customs, Bloomberg reported that the 72% plunge in smartphone shipments to the U.S. far outpaced the 21% decline in overall exports to the U.S.

China's export data showed that handsets and laptops suffered the largest shipping declines in April.

April marked the peak of the trade war, with President Trump imposing tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods and Beijing retaliating with 125% tariffs on U.S. products. By mid-May, trade tensions had eased, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduced to 30% and China's tariffs on U.S. goods lowered to 10%.

However, the so-called "breakthrough" trade deal between the U.S. and China last week has Goldman analyst Philip Sun forecasting a surge in imports for U.S. ports. This has abruptly reversed the "empty ports" and "empty shelves" narratives; now, U.S. importers expect to pull forward.

Goldman's Sun explained: "China's exports will be RED HOT in the next 90 days. Frontrunning would be the keyword."

Meanwhile, Apple accelerated a shift of iPhone production to India in anticipation of the trade war. 

Last week, President Trump, on his Gulf States tour, publicly called out Apple CEO Tim Cook for the massive expansion of iPhone production in India. Trump said after his conversation about 'Made in America', the CEO would be "upping their production in the United States." 

Wedbush Securities recently estimated that a fully American-made iPhone could cost as much as $3,500, compared to the current average price of around $1,000. There are reports the next model could see the first price hike since the 2017 debut of the iPhone X.

Next lineup of iPhone...

 . . . 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 07:45

"They Want War" - Martin Armstrong Slams European Leaders Reinstating Military Drafts

Zero Hedge -

"They Want War" - Martin Armstrong Slams European Leaders Reinstating Military Drafts

Via  Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is back with an update on his big turn toward war in Ukraine with Russia.  

Two weeks ago on USAW, Armstrong predicted, After May 15, war is turning up (in Ukraine) and it will be turning up into 2026.”  

That prediction paid off to the exact day as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended on May 15 after just two hours, and neither side agreed to meet again.  

War is already here, and there is no stopping it with peace talks.  Armstrong says, “Putin knows and understands this is not a just a war with Ukraine, this is a war with NATO..."

"If Putin agrees to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, what’s that going to do?  Absolutely nothing.  

You have every European country reinstituting drafts.  In Germany, even people 60 years old have been told to report.  Poland has ordered every able-bodied man to show up for military training.  They want war.  Their economy is collapsing.  You hear about this de-dollarization, and it’s not happening.  The capitalization of just the New York Stock Exchange is worth more than all of Europe combined.  That’s just the New York Stock Exchange...

You’ve got Macron in France, they call him the ‘Petite Napolean.’. . . Without war, Europe is going to collapse.  It’s in a sovereign debt crisis . . . They have done everything against the economy.”

Armstong thinks Russia will finish off Ukraine sometime in 2027 and Europe a year or two after that.  And, Yes, Armstrong still thinks Ukraine will disappear from the map.

Armstrong urged his contacts in Washington to “Get the hell out of NATO.”  It seems some in the US government are considering this warning as this headline breaks today: “US to Begin European Troop Withdrawal Talks, NATO Ambassador Says.”  Armstrong says, 

“I have been told by some very influential people on Capitol Hill ‘you’re right, we agree.’  That’s what I have been told. . . . I have been complaining about this for months, and my view is Europe is committing suicide, and let’s not be part of it this time.”

Is President Trump getting this message?  Armstrong says, “Yes, I believe so. . . . Trump also said a peace deal does not seem likely, the hatred is too great on both sides.”

The neocons back home also want war with Russia and have wanted it for a very long time.  Trump is either going to make peace or walk away and not participate.  Maybe this is why former FBI Director James Comey put out his not-so-cryptic call to assassinate President Trump with his “86 47” now deleted Instagram post.  Comey was the man who held Armstrong in prison illegally for contempt for 7 years. 

Armstrong says, “Comey has always been part of it.  Just for the record, he was the US Attorney in New York.  He’s the one who kept me in contempt until the Supreme Court said what the hell is going on?  Then, they had to release me.”

How did Armstrong land in jail?  

Armstrong says, “They asked me to put in 10 billion dollars . . . to take over Russia, and I refused..."

"  It was Comey that was the US Attorney for New York, and he kept me in civil contempt, which has a maximum sentence of 18 months, and he kept me in for 7 years.  

He kept rolling it and rolling it and rolling it. . . . I was told if I put in $10 billion, I would get $100 billion back.  

They intended to have all the assets of Russia going through the trading desk of New York.  All the oil, gold, diamonds, platinum, you name it, they would have it all.  And I said, no, I’m out.  I am not into regime change.”

Fast forward to today, and the powers in Europe still think they can take Russia and steal their assets to fix the extreme financial problems in Europe.  

Pensions, banks and bonds are in deep financial trouble in Europe.  

Stealing from Russia and gaining control of $75 trillion in natural resources is why they want and need war.  Armstrong says, 

“They went to negative interest rates in 2014.  I warned them.  I said listen; you are out of your minds.  

You are syphoning money out of the bank reserves and pension finds.  It’s a basket case.  It really is.  They have no appreciable economy. . . it’s shrinking, the number of actual businesses has shrunk in Germany.  (Germany is 25% of the EU economy.)  This is why they need war.”

Armstrong says Europe is going to lose and lose badly in a war with Russia.  

Armstrong says if Trump gets out of NATO, the US will thrive and do much better financially than Europe.  

Let’s all hope President Trump gets us out of NATO before it’s too late.

There is much more in the 60-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis on war, default, depression and unpayable debt that will make a huge mess for the world for 5.17.25.

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com click here

There is free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 07:20

Buy Now, Pay Never? Klarna's Losses Double As US Consumers Fall Behind On Payments

Zero Hedge -

Buy Now, Pay Never? Klarna's Losses Double As US Consumers Fall Behind On Payments

In an absolute shocker that you'll never believe (unless you read ZeroHedge) - Klarna, the Swedish financial technology firm known for its "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) offerings, reported a sharp increase in losses for the first quarter, driven by a rise in consumer defaults and economic unease in the United States.

The company posted a net loss of $99 million for the three months ending in March, more than double its $47 million loss during the same period a year earlier. The deterioration comes amid a rise in customer credit losses, which climbed 17 percent year-on-year to $136 million, underscoring mounting concerns about the financial health of U.S. borrowers.

Klarna’s business model - providing interest-free installment loans for retail purchases - has grown rapidly in recent years, especially in the United States, where the company has partnered with major retailers such as Walmart, eBay and DoorDash. But the surge in unpaid loans and shifting macroeconomic conditions have intensified scrutiny of the company’s exposure to economic headwinds, according to the Financial Times.

The results also follow Klarna’s decision to halt its long-anticipated initial public offering in New York, after recent tariff announcements from President Donald Trump roiled markets. The administration’s trade policy has heightened inflation expectations and dampened consumer sentiment, with one widely watched confidence index falling to its second-lowest level on record last week.

Despite the growing defaults, Klarna emphasized the short-term nature of its loan book, noting that 83 percent of its balances refresh within three months. The company said in a statement that it's "closely monitoring changes in the macroeconomic environment," and "remains well-positioned to adapt swiftly if required."

Klarna’s credit loss rate as a share of total payment volume remains relatively modest at 0.54 percent, a slight uptick from 0.51 percent a year earlier.

Revenues for the quarter rose 13 percent to $701 million, as the platform reached 99 million active users. The company has leaned heavily on artificial intelligence to streamline operations, delivering Monday’s earnings through an AI-generated avatar of its chief executive.

Klarna has also pursued aggressive cost-cutting, reducing its headcount by 39 percent over the past two years. Customer service expenses declined 12 percent year-on-year in the latest quarter. At the same time, the company is grappling with a 15 percent rise in funding costs, now totaling $130 million.

Last month we noted that Americans are increasingly tapping Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) financing to pay for daily essentials -- even groceries -- according to a Lending Tree survey, in which  41% of those polled say they were late on payments over the past year, which is up from 34% in last year's survey. About three-quarters of the late-payers say they were late by no more than "a week or so." However, where that and other numbers are concerned, it's important to note that these stats are based on survey responses -- not the hard data of their BNPL providers. Given human nature, it's reasonable to think respondents would understate subpar behavior. 

The top two categories of BNPL purchases are clothing, shoes and accessories (41% of BNPL users) followed by technology devices (39%). However, there's been a surge in people who've used BNPL for groceries -- 25% versus 14% last year.  A whopping one-third of Gen Z BNPL-tappers say they've used the financing for groceries. Similarly, 16% of users have tapped BNPL for food delivery or takeout.

"Have you ever used BNPL services like Affirm or Klarna?" (via Lending Tree)

Other findings:

  • Nearly half of the respondents have used a BNPL loan, with 11% saying they've used them 6 or more times. 23% have had three or more of them running simultaneously.  
  • 53% of men have used BNPL, versus 46% of female respondents. 
  • 64% of Gen Zers (age 18 to 28) have used BNPL, compared to 29% of Boomers (61 to 79)
Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 06:55

After Billion-Dollar Bullion Gain, Meet The Chinese Trader Betting Big On Copper

Zero Hedge -

After Billion-Dollar Bullion Gain, Meet The Chinese Trader Betting Big On Copper

Following Moody's late-Friday downgrade of the U.S. government's top credit rating, gold futures were bid Sunday evening into early Monday morning as investors sought safe-haven trades. However, we shift our attention to a Chinese trader whose highly profitable precious metals trade has recently pivoted toward copper, where he has established a sizable long position.

Bloomberg reports that Chinese billionaire Bian Ximing—who netted $1.5 billion from gold futures trades driven by his de-dollarization and inflation-hedging thesis—has now emerged as China's largest copper bull.

People familiar with Shanghai Futures Exchange data say Ximing has amassed the largest net long position in copper contracts. Bourse data shows the billionaire has built a massive position totaling around 90,000 tons in copper futures over the past ten months.

"It's a quite unique copper position that is worth following," said Li Yiyao, a vice president of Cofco Futures Co.'s Shanghai North Bund division, adding, "It reflects a very long-term, bullish sentiment on the metal based on fundamentals — which differs from the usual mid or short-term strategies we see in the market."

Yiyao added that Ximing's trades during the trade war turmoil stood firm while others exited long copper trades.

Ximing, an industrialist-turned-investor who now lives in Gibraltar, worked with his brokerage, Zhongcai Futures Co., to acquire the long copper position before the November U.S. presidential elections. His bullish view was on a Trump win and Chinese stimulus would produce tailwinds for industrial metal. So far, the bet has returned $200 million in profits.

Ximing's position "is not big enough to distort the market, but it does provide a rare insight into Bian's strategy," said Jia Zheng, head of trading at Shanghai Soochow Jiuying Investment Management Co.

Zheng noted, "People in the market have been tracking his gold and copper trades closely."

Visibility on Ximing's copper bet comes after U.S. imports of Chinese goods plunged from 145% to 30% last week, while Chinese imports of U.S. goods dropped from 125% to just 10%. A 90-day cooling-off period is now in effect as trade negotiations between the two economic superpowers have begun. For now, it appears the peak of trade war turmoil has subsided.

Not long ago, Kostas Bintas—Trafigura Group's former co-head of metals and now with Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.—spoke with Bloomberg in an exclusive interview, expressing an incredibly bullish outlook on copper prices, primarily due to forecasts that global demand will outstrip supply this year.

Former Goldman metals strategist Nick Snowdon, also at Mercuria and head of metals research at the commodity trading firm, forecasted earlier this year that copper prices would average $15,000 a ton for 2025. 

Also, Carlyle Group's Jeff Currie (the former Goldman commodities boss) has voiced his bullish view on copper. 

Earlier this month, Goldman analyst Eoin Dinsmore noted to clients, "The deescalation in trade tensions and resilient Chinese copper demand will likely continue to support the copper price in the coming months, and we upgrade our 2Q/3Q price forecast to $9,330/$9,150/t from $8,620/$8,370 previously." 

We've diligently detailed in multiple notes that the 'Powering Up America' theme and the 'Next AI Trade' have been key demand drivers behind the copper trade.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 05:45

Greenland's Mineral Wealth Could Pave Way To Independent Future

Zero Hedge -

Greenland's Mineral Wealth Could Pave Way To Independent Future

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

Taatsi Olsen knows what it takes to start searching for minerals in Greenland.

In a warehouse on the outskirts of the capital, Nuuk, he walked through the nuts and bolts of mining exploration in the cold, sparsely populated country: walls of tools and harnesses and small trailers flown to remote sites by helicopter, essential in a place where no roads go from town to town.

Olsen pointed out that Greenland’s unique settlement pattern—isolated fishing villages scattered across hundreds of miles of rocky islands and fjords—can have advantages for miners.

“If you are in a remote area, there’s a good chance that there’s a small village nearby,” he told The Epoch Times.

Olsen is chief operating officer of X-Ploration Services Greenland. The company, which supports mineral exploration on the island, could prosper if the Danish territory’s rare earth deposits prove to be a boon.

Yet he knows the odds against individual success. Olsen estimates that just one in a thousand exploratory projects in Greenland yields a mine.

“It’s just that difficult to find something where the economics make sense,” he said.

President Donald Trump has cited Greenland’s rare earths, estimated at 1.5 million tons, as a significant reason to fold it into the United States.

Critical minerals are used in many advanced technologies, including cellphones and defense systems. The industry is currently dominated by China.

For now, just two mines are operating in Greenland, and neither mines rare earths.

Yet mining isn’t new to Greenland. It’s part of a long history that entangles the world’s largest island with Denmark and the United States.

Advocates of rare earth mining hope it will help the case for Greenland’s independence. Many seek additional revenue streams in a territory dominated by seafood exports, government employment, and a yearly block grant from Denmark.

“We have to strengthen the economy,” Svend Hardenberg, a Greenlander involved in efforts to develop rare earth mining, told The Epoch Times.

Mining, Past and Future

Mining in Greenland has roots that reach back to the 1720s, when a Lutheran pastor, Hans Egede, came to Greenland in search of the Vikings who vanished after settling there more than a thousand years ago. The Danish Norwegian pioneer founded a new colony on the island. A few decades later, small-scale mining began.

A fishing village near Nuuk, Greenland, on May 4, 2025. Nuuk, home to some 20,000 people, is the capital of Greenland. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

One site dating back to the 1850s—the cryolite mine in Ivittuut—proved vital in the 20th century.

Cryolite was necessary in the production of aluminum, and Ivittuut was the only commercial source.

During World War II, Ivittuut proved so crucial to the Allied war effort that the United States set up a naval base nearby to protect it. To this day, the United States maintains a military base in far northern Pituffik.

Cryolite mining at Ivittuut petered out with the rise of synthetic cryolite, and it eventually shuttered in 1987. The base, by then Danish, shut down in 2012. The Chinese tried to buy the abandoned installation in 2016 but were prevented from doing so by the Danish government.

Eclipse Metals, an Australian company, has since acquired a license for a site that includes the former base and mine.

The promise of rare earths has also drawn attention to the Tanbreez project, a deposit near the town of Narsaq in Southern Greenland.

In 2024, U.S. officials lobbied the Australian firm, Tanbreez Mining, to deny permits to Chinese-linked companies trying to acquire it.

In March, mining development company Critical Metal Corp. estimated the value of 1 percent of Tanbreez’s host rock at roughly $3 billion.

The company, which has an ownership stake in the project, has partnered on the Tanbreez project with GreenMet, a U.S.-based critical minerals firm led by Drew Horn.

Horn told The Epoch Times that Tanbreez has sparked interest from a private-sector delegation he led. The group included executives from the mining firms Critical Metals Corp, American Renewable Metals, Refracture, and Cogency Power.

Horn has also partnered with Hardenberg on a seaweed treatment project, which would resemble a state-owned operation developed by Royal Greenland.

Tour guide Pakkutannguaq Larsen said that although she is in favor of Greenland independence, she is not eager for more extractive industry.

(Top) Pituffik Space Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base, a U.S. Space Force base located on the northwest coast of Greenland, on Oct. 4, 2023. (Bottom L) Tour guide Pakkutannguaq Larsen ties off a tourist boat in Nuuk, Greenland, on May 4, 2025. Larsen said that although she is in favor of Greenland's independence, she is not eager for more extractive industry. (Bottom R) Taatsi Olsen of Xploration Services Greenland looks at upcoming plans in Nuuk, Greenland, on May 4, 2025. The company supports mineral exploration on the island. Thomas Traasdahl/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images, John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

“We want to keep the nature as it is,” she told The Epoch Times.

Olsen, whose firm has not been involved in Tanbreez, said Trump’s attention toward his home country has fueled both excitement and uncertainty.

U.S. companies are not yet lining up to work with X-Ploration Services, which specializes in logistics, planning, and related areas.

“Most of our customers are Canadians,” Olsen added.

Nikoline Ziemer, a biologist involved in Royal Greenland’s seaweed project, said she hopes the government will not withdraw licenses as it has in the past.

“We have to have a stable policy around that because it injures the credibility of Greenland as a possibility for mining,” she said.

In 2021, the country stripped a Chinese firm of an iron ore mining license. That same year, the territory ceased offering new oil exploration licenses.

Olsen said he thinks the government, now under different leadership, could reverse course on the latter decision.

Nikoline Ziemer, a business development manager for Royal Greenland, looks over images of seaweed samples in Nuuk, Greenland, on May 5, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

A Dependent Economy

Olsen, Hardenberg, Ziemer, and Larsen are not outliers.

Almost every Greenlander who spoke to The Epoch Times saw a bid for independence from Denmark on the horizon—although the timeline is unclear after March’s election. Independence could also help Greenlanders forge closer ties with the United States if they so choose.

Hardenberg said rare earths are one means of moving the territory toward greater autonomy.

Ziemer agreed. Speaking for herself and not Royal Greenland, she said the territory’s reliance on fisheries is “not a viable economical [model].”

Today, shrimp and fish make up more than 90 percent of the territory’s exports. More than half of the Greenlandic government’s budget and one-fifth of Greenland’s gross domestic product comes from the Danish government. Greenland also gets a yearly block grant from Denmark, which equates to about $500 million.

That block grant could eat into large mining revenues for the local government. If Greenland generates revenue above 75 million Danish kroner (about $11.3 million dollars) half of those fees would go to offset the grant.

Greenland’s government has a massive footprint on the island. Public sector jobs account for 42 percent of employment, compared with 28 percent in Denmark and 13.4 percent in the United States.

Hardenberg, who once served in the government, said that he thinks Greenland would be more dynamic if it “freed up more people from the public sector to more productive jobs.”

Not all mining-related activity will translate into work for locals.

Olsen said Greenland’s small population—fewer than 60,000 people—means that mining exploration must draw on some foreign talent.

“There’s not that many geologists and experts [here],” he said.

He said more jobs for blue-collar Greenlanders will be available if mining advances from exploration to exploitation.

(Top) Fishermen travel Arctic waters near Nuuk, Greenland, on May 4, 2025. Shrimp and fish make up more than 90 percent of Greenland's current exports. (Bottom) Boaters leave the offices of Royal Greenland near Nuuk, Greenland, on May 5, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

On the Ground

In Nuuk, home to some 20,000 people, the economic picture seemed mixed.

While some streets were lined with decaying housing blocks, others glittered with new construction.

High above the city, an international airport will soon host flights from Scandinavian Airlines and United Airlines, boosting hopes of tourism.

At a government-funded “Fight Club,” where young boxers sparred before a cheering crowd, Ethan Ingholt told The Epoch Times he came to Nuuk from Denmark.

In Denmark, he worked as an arborist. Now, in a land with no trees, he’s a construction manager.

“If you’re willing to work, there’s always jobs,” he said.

Inunnguaq Korneliussen, a student at the event, told The Epoch Times that the economy “is OK right now” but “getting bad.” He cited rising grocery prices.

A few streets away, Jens Smith was selling seafood at a market stall. One popular item was lumpfish roe, a delicacy similar to sturgeon caviar.

As Smith spoke, a man walked in and quickly purchased two bags of roe.

Smith told The Epoch Times that many customers resell his goods in Denmark, where Greenlandic seafood can fetch high prices.

A couple walks the streets of Nuuk, Greenland, on May 3, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

He said the winter has been tough for fishing.

“The water is too cold right now,” he said.

Larsen, an opponent of mining, said she hopes to open her own tour company. She said tourism could help Greenland go its own way, like Iceland did.

A former Danish territory that became independent, Iceland, a country of fewer than 400,000, attracted almost 2.3 million overnight visitors in 2024, according to the Iceland Tourism Board.

Greenland, which relies largely on cruise-based tourism, received 76,477 cruise passengers in 2023, a record number and 640 percent more cruise passengers than in 2019, the previous best year.

Hardenberg said the recent election revealed one commonality across Greenland: “Everybody is agreeing that we need to create our own future. We need to be steering and controlling our own destiny.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 05:00

Third Arrest Made After Ukrainian National Charged With Firebombing PM Starmer's Home

Zero Hedge -

Third Arrest Made After Ukrainian National Charged With Firebombing PM Starmer's Home

A third man has been arrested in connection with a series fires at properties linked to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, after earlier this month there were a series of blazes which appeared to target him or assets owned by him. 

The Metropolitan Police's Counter Terrorism Command has been leading the investigation, after starting May 8, emergency services responded to three consecutive nights of blazes targeting Starmer's properties and a vehicle. The attacks began with a firebombing of the front of Starmer's private residence he lived in before becoming prime minister.

Via Reuters

The arson attacks first targeted the Kentish Town home where Sir Keir lived before becoming prime minister. This left damage at the property, but no injuries to anyone. A car was also set on fire.

The arson attacks continued, next at the front door of a house in Islington, also linked to the prime minister. One bystander had to be rescued by responding firefighters.

On Monday, Sky News reported the following development

A third man has been arrested in connection with fires at two properties and a car linked to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

The Metropolitan Police said a 34-year-old was arrested this morning in the Chelsea area of west London on suspicion of conspiracy to commit arson with intent to endanger life.

The identities and nationalities of both the latest individual arrested and the second arrest have not been immediately forthcoming by authorities.

Roman Lavrynovych, social media video stillframe, via The Telegraph 

The first arrest was of a 26-year-old man and Ukrainian national, identified in court as Roman Lavrynovych. He's been charged with setting fire to Starmer's personal home and a vehicle.

As of yet, the prosecutor has not identified a motive for the crimes and has given no explanation, while Lavrynovych has denied setting the fires. He's been formally charged with three counts of arson with intent to endanger life.

According to some of the interesting details to emerge in local reporting:

Neighbor Charles Grant said that police searched his yard on Monday and “said they were looking for a projectile.”

“From what other people have told me today, I gather someone threw a firebomb at Keir Starmer’s house," he said.

Starmer’s house has attracted protesters in the past. Last year, three pro-Palestinian activists were arrested and charged with public order offenses after unfurling a banner covered in red handprints outside the building.

Via BBC

Starmer didn't at any point appear to be be in danger during the incidents, given he and his family have long been living in the prime minister’s official Downing Street residence, since his July election.

Lavrynovych's family told UK media that he 'loves' Britain. Naturally, there will be speculation over whether this may have had some connection to the Russia-Ukraine war, given also Starmer's deep involvement in ongoing meetings with Zelensky and Kiev officials.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 04:15

Atlanta Remains The World 's Busiest Airport

Zero Hedge -

Atlanta Remains The World 's Busiest Airport

In 2024, global air travel hit 9.5 billion passengers— a five billion increase since 2021.

Together, the 10 busiest airports transported 855 million passengers, or 9% of traffic globally. While air traffic has finally surged past pre-pandemic levels, it is not without its challenges of staffing crises, tech outages, and aircraft incidents.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the busiest airports in the world, based on data from the Airports Council International.

The Top 10 Busiest Airports in the World in 2024

Below, we show the airports with the highest number of passengers globally as air travel increased 9% over the year:

Represents total passengers enplaned and deplaned, with passengers in transit counted once.

As we can see, four of the top 10 busiest airports in the world are in the U.S.—led by the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport

Notably, Atlanta serves as a connecting hub to domestic and international travelers, owing to its position between North America, Europe, and Latin America. Adding to this, it has 150 non-stop destinations in six continents.

Ranking in second is the Dubai International Airport, with a record 92 million passengers in 2024. Overall, 106 international airlines fly into this hub, reflecting Dubai’s growing prominence as a center for business and investment.

Meanwhile, Shanghai’s Pudong International Airport saw the largest rise in the rankings, up from 21st in 2023 to 10th overall. Driving its 41% surge in passengers was the resumption of international flights and visa policy expansion.

To learn more about this topic from a travel perspective, check out this graphic on the cheapest and most expensive places to visit in 2025.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 02:45

'De-Brexit'? UK PM Starmer Accused Of "Surrender" As Britain Pens New Agreement With Brussels

Zero Hedge -

'De-Brexit'? UK PM Starmer Accused Of "Surrender" As Britain Pens New Agreement With Brussels

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The United Kingdom and the European Union have reached a wide-ranging agreement aimed at expanding cooperation across key areas such as defense, energy, migration, law enforcement, and youth mobility — a deal that critics argue is a flagrant rowback on Brexit.

Announced following the U.K.–EU summit on Monday, the so-called Common Understanding outlines both sides’ intention to build on existing post-Brexit frameworks, including the Withdrawal Agreement and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

While the agreement does not constitute a new treaty, it signals a shift toward closer integration in several sectors that effectively bring the U.K. back into alignment with EU rules and institutions, undermining national sovereignty.

The agreement reconfirms reciprocal access to fishing waters until June 2038 and extends bilateral cooperation on energy. It also launches a new Security and Defense Partnership covering topics such as support for Ukraine, cyber defense, military mobility, peacekeeping, and space security. Dialogue is also planned in areas like maritime safety and international disaster response.

Access to fishing waters has been a bone of contention since the 2016 Brexit vote and is seen as a major concession by the U.K. Ahead of the news breaking, rumors had been swirling in Westminster that fishing rights were on the table, leading Reform UK leader Nigel Farage to warn, “If true, that will be the end of the fishing industry.”

Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch also remarked, “Twelve years’ access to British waters is three times longer than the government wanted. We’re becoming a rule-taker from Brussels once again. And with no details on any cap or time limits on Youth Mobility, fears of free movement returning will only increase. This is very concerning.

The new mobility framework proposed is for young people, allowing limited-duration travel between the U.K. and EU for work, study, volunteering, and other cultural purposes. In parallel, the U.K. and EU will begin discussions about associating the UK with the EU’s Erasmus+ program, including negotiation over financial terms. These discussions are framed as promoting “people-to-people” ties, especially among younger generations.

In the area of internal security, both sides committed to strengthening cooperation under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. This includes information-sharing with Europol, improved coordination on terrorism and serious crime, and the potential expansion of biometric and vehicle data exchange. There is also intent to address difficulties faced by law enforcement in accessing electronic communications data across jurisdictions.

In economic and environmental matters, the agreement outlines plans to explore U.K. participation in the EU’s internal electricity market and to establish a link between the U.K. and EU emissions trading systems. Both initiatives would require the U.K. to align with EU rules in relevant areas, such as state aid, environmental protections, and trading mechanisms. This alignment would be monitored through dispute mechanisms, with the European Court of Justice acting as the final authority on EU law. The move effectively reintroduces the ECJ as the supreme arbiter in such areas.

On agri-food trade, the two sides agreed to work toward a Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement that would remove many current barriers to the movement of animals and plants between Great Britain and the EU. However, this too would involve dynamic alignment with EU regulations and limited exceptions subject to EU approval. The agreement specifies that the U.K. would be consulted during the EU policy-making process but would have no vote or participation in formal decision-making bodies. Again, issues of sovereignty arise, with the United Kingdom signing up to align with regulations without having a seat at the table.

The deal also includes plans to deepen cooperation on illegal migration. Areas of focus include upstream control efforts, information-sharing on visa abuse and migrant smuggling, and coordination with EU agencies such as Frontex and the EU Agency for Asylum. Practical measures to prevent Channel crossings and improve return mechanisms are also under discussion.

Though the agreement repeatedly emphasizes mutual benefit and respect for each side’s legal framework, many of its proposals rely on U.K. adherence to EU rules and oversight structures. The European Commission is explicit in its expectation that the U.K. will align dynamically with changing EU legislation in areas covered by the agreements, while contributing financially to relevant EU programs and databases.

Former Conservative Home Secretary Suella Braverman called the deal a surrender. “The government has let down our fishing community. This capitulation is unforgivable for our coastal communities and fishermen. The British people won’t forget this. The beginning of the end for Brexit.”

Starmer, however, took to social media to defend the deal, telling Brits they “deserve better than the last government’s deal. It wasn’t working for anyone.”

He claimed that while previous governments had “dithered and delayed,” his was “getting on with the job and delivering in the national interest.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/20/2025 - 02:00

How Long Can Lies & Control Supplant Reality & Free Markets?

Zero Hedge -

How Long Can Lies & Control Supplant Reality & Free Markets?

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

The facts of a surreal yet broken (and hence increasingly controlled and desperate) financial system are becoming harder to deny and ignore. 

Below, we look at the evidence of control rather than the words of dishonest policy makers and ask a simple question: How long can lies supplant reality?

The Great Disconnect: Tanking Growth vs. Supported Markets

It’s becoming harder to keep up with the increasingly downgraded GDP growth estimations from the Atlanta Fed.

As recently as August, its GDPNow 3q21 estimates for the quarterly percentage change were as high as 6%.

But within a matter of weeks, this otherwise optimistic figure was cut embarrassingly in half.

Last month, their GDP forecast sank much further to 0.5%, and as of this writing, it has been downgraded yet again to 0.2%.

Needless to say, 6% estimated growth falling to effectively 0% growth is hardly a bullish indicator for the kind of strengthening economic conditions which one might otherwise associate with risk asset prices reaching all-time highs for the same period.

The growing yet steady disconnect between market highs and economic lows is getting harder to explain, ignore or deny by the architects of the most artificial, rigged and dishonest market cycle in modern history.

In short, it is no longer even worth pretending that stock markets are correlated to such natural measurements as a nation’s economic productivity.

After all, who needs GDP in the New Abnormal?

By now, even Fed doublespeak can’t hide the fact that the only market force which the post-08 markets require is an accommodative central bank—i.e., a firehose of multi-trillion liquidity on demand.

But as for this most recent GDP downgrade, it is being blamed on tanking US export data.

More Fantasy: Bogus or Real Taper?

The question facing investors heading into year-end is whether any of the foregoing realities will place pressure on the Fed to continue the now normalized fantasy of unlimited QE or stick to its equally fantastical “taper-talk.”

Toward this end, Powell could delay the planned “taper” or, as is likely, simply move ahead with what is essentially a bogus taper involving a nominally insignificant reduction in money printing offset by ongoing yet deliberately hidden liquidity from the Standard Repo Facility and FIMA swap lines.

Thus, whether we see a delayed taper or a bogus taper, the net result is still more fiat liquidity flooding the always dollar-thirsty (and QE-addicted) financial system.

This, of course, translates to increased currency debasement and thus rising tailwinds for gold, BTC, industrials and commodities.

Should, however, the FOMC announce a genuine taper, the net result for gold is still positive.

Yes, a real taper means slightly higher rates and increased volatility (bad for risk assets) along with a stronger dollar, but inflation rates will still supersede interest rates, favouring gold anyway you look at it.

Again, and as discussed in prior reports, gold can and will rise if rates rise, so long as inflation rises faster, which for all the reasons we’ve addressed elsewhere, convinces us that a future of negative real rates is the only future central banks can allow.

More Inflationary Tricks (i.e., Fantasy)

Why?

Because short of default, the only and time-tested trick left up the sleeves of debt-soaked policy makers to dig their way out of a nightmarish and historically unprecedented debt hole (which they alone created) is by pursuing policies of deeply negative real rates.

This twisted inflationary playbook, so familiar to rigged insiders yet unknown to the vast majority of retail investors, boils down to a policy play by which our “experts” solve debt with more debt and hide the truth behind more complex policy adjectives (i.e., lies).

Specifically, this means the “experts” will:  1) deliberately seek more inflation while 2) lying about true inflation levels and then 3) repress interest rates in order to partially inflate their way out of debt with 4) increasingly debased currencies.

Take the U.S. Dollar’s purchasing power, for example…

Keeping the Serfs Down—The Policy of the New Feudalism

Needless to say, more inflation is a direct tax on the increasingly poorer middle class.

Sadly, too many are too busy trying to make sense of months of lockdowns, vaccine mandates, movement restrictions, crime waves and inflating rent payments to notice that they have been made into serfs in a Brave New World where greater than 80% of the stock market wealth is held by the top 10% of the population.

Let’s be clear: I’m a screaming capitalist, but a pandemic world in which Bezos, Musk and other billionaire wealth has increased by 70% while 89 million Americans have lost their jobs is NOT capitalism, but a symptom of a rigged system in which the anti-trust rules I learned in law school, or the social and economic principles I learned in economics are simply gone.

Then again, when I was in school, we were once taught how to think, not what to think.

With each passing day, we see increased evidence of what I wrote (and described) elsewhere as a new feudalism marked by grotesquely distorted notions of truth, reporting, data, natural market forces and political/financial accountability.

In order to keep this report objective rather than an op-ed, let’s just consider the facts and case studies right before us.

Yellen & Dimon—Two Classic Lords Spinning Familiar Yarns

Take, for example, the aforementioned tanking of GDP, now being attributed to openly tanking export data out of the U.S. and the undeniable supply chain disruptions impacting the global economy.

To address this, none other than two of the most media prolific “lords” of the new feudalism, Fed Chairwoman-turned-Treasury-Secretary Janet Yellen and current JP Morgan CEO and 2008 bailout-beneficiary-turned-Fed-Crony, Jamie Dimon, assure us not to worry.

How nice.

Yellen, for her part, has recently said:

“I don’t think we’re about to lose control of inflation.”

 “As we make further progress on the pandemic, I expect these bottlenecks to subside. Americans will return to the labor force as conditions improve.”

Again: How nice.

But let’s not let warm words get in the way of cold facts.

Yellen, like every Fed Chair since Greenspan, has a long history of buying time with comforting words that have nothing to do with hard reality:

“You will never see another financial crisis in your lifetime.”
– Janet Yellen, spring 2018

“I do worry that we could have another financial crisis. ″
– Janet Yellen, fall 2018

Despite a long and well-documented history of outright dishonesty spewing from the mouths of financial media darlings and policymakers like Yellen and Dimon, both are now pushing a bullish “be calm and carry on while we profit and control” meme.

They recently seized upon Biden’s move to run the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on a 24/7 schedule to alleviate bottlenecks, which increased throughput by roughly 15% (3,500 containers/week v. 950,000 containers per month.)

That’s nice, and sure, it helps.

But despite such band-aid measures, supply chains won’t normalize until early 2023, at the earliest…and that assumes no further disruptions, which frankly, is a naive assumption.

Folks, it’s not up to Yellen or Dimon to give us honest guidance as to whether supply chains will normalise in 2021. It is up to China and Biden’s entirely Orwellian vaccine mandate.

Speaking of Yellen, Dimon et al, aren’t we all a bit curious about the now undeniable marriage of the Federal Reserve (an illegal private bank) and the U.S. Treasury Department?

And as for bank CEO’s like Dimon, have we not forgotten other bank CEOs like Goldman’s Hank Paulson, who made a similar “marriage” to the Treasury Department just in time to bail his former bank out of the Great Financial Crisis that it helped create?

Are these the honest brokers we want deciding our economic fates or signaling/controlling our economic future?

Vaccine Passes and Mandates—The Great Smokescreen

And as to the mandate… Note Yellen’s careful yet semantic magic of hiding autocracy behind humanitarian lingo.

Her comment above regarding bottlenecks “subsiding” once “we make further progress on the pandemic” is very comforting, no?

But it’s just another veiled way (i.e., smokescreen) of pushing a vaccine mandate which defies every principle of the social contract our founding fathers achieved in that silly document I revered as a 1L and known otherwise as the U.S. Constitution.

As I’ve said many times before, I’m no source for medical advice, and my circle includes many who are vaccinated and un-vaccinated alike—with equal respect for the choices we’ve made and equal disgust for the notion that such choices should be imposed rather than voluntary.

Simple Questions, Cold Math, Global Control

But should we not at least be asking ourselves if the pandemic discussion is less about global health and more about global control?

Without seeking to offend anyone’s COVID stance, can we nevertheless agree that C.J. Hopkins makes an undeniably clear and common-sensical point by simply asking a few basic questions?

For example, why has so much political, social and economic power been given to a minority of policy makers to scare/distract the world into ignoring a now obvious global power-shift justified by a virus which causes mild-to-moderate symptoms in 95% of the infected and whose case fatality rate is quantifiably somewhere in the range of 0.1% to 0.5%?

Yet despite such simple math, tens of thousands of firemen, police officers, nurses and military personnel—the very heroes who have placed themselves on the front lines of our increasingly criminalized, sick and psychologically damaged population– are now being forced out of work for not agreeing to a forced jab imposed by anti-heroes?

One has to at least wonder why so much effort has been made by a government-influenced/co-conspired media to spend its time criminalising the unvaccinated rather than making front-page noise pointing out the obvious criminalisation of our global financial system?

The Real Criminals

By that, I’m thinking of the years of recently revealed insider trading at the Fed, the anti-trust violations of the non-tax-paying Amazon robber-baron or the open media-censorship and just plain shady that occurs daily at Facebook—an entity so blatantly shameful that it thinks a name-change can hide its dark past?

Or how about years of open price manipulation by bullion banks, the BIS and other dark corners of the OTCto deliberately force the natural price of gold and silver to the floor in order to illegally price-fix and protect globally debased currencies from the embarrassment of what a natural gold price would otherwise confirm, namely: Your currency has died, thanks to the white-collar criminals otherwise touted as experts.

In case you think this is mere sensationalism or speculation, I’ve written hundreds of pages and countless reports of graphical/mathematical/objective evidence of the same, and even an entire book on the rigged-to-fail system otherwise passing as normal to make this clear distortion of economic rules and political laws objective rather than pejorative.

Nor am I/we alone in pointing out the obvious. From the honest minority in markets to an honest minority in politics, plain-spoken truth is fighting for free expression.

More Honest Voices

Take, for example, the recent press conference (ignored, of course, by the main/muddy stream media) held by key members of the European Parliament to openly defy the insanely autocratic notion of a health pass to distinguish the compliant from the free or the “safe” from the “unsafe”.

As one brave parliamentary member from Germany, Christine Anderson, candidly observed, if you think the vaccine pass was made because the government cares about you, you are clearly ignoring its real motive, which is to control you.

And this is straight from the European Parliament.

Control, of course, only works if enough people are scared, tired or uninformed enough to be controlled.

As for the financial system, signs of its increasingly obvious attempt at more controls to mask increasingly shameful policies are literally everywhere.

And yet… and yet…the media, the masses and the majority of investors continue to follow their murky and shady lead.

Again, just keep it simple and factual rather than partisan or medically controversial.

Criminal Evidence

In the last 20 years, for example, policy makers have tripled the global debt levels yet made no commensurate progress with global GDP, which is literally 1/3 of this embarrassing debt pile.

That is shameful. Debt like this always destroys economies. Always.

Instead, those same “experts” have mouse-clicked more instant money out of thin air in the last decade than all the money ever created by all the combined central banks since their inception.

They actually want you to believe that a debt crisis can be solved with alas…more debt.

Such staggering money creation has led unequivocally and directly to the greatest and most inflated risk asset bubble in the history of capital markets.

Yet rather than admit to the open failure of such monetary expansion, which has simply crushed the natural purchasing power of fiat currencies…

…the architects of this failed experiment will now try to blame such excessive debt and currency destruction on a pandemic rather than years of their own pre-COVID policy crimes.

Today, politicians and their central bank masters are literally comparing the Pandemic’s 4.9M death toll to the unthinkable disaster which was the +75M killed in World War 2.

They then employ this pandemic narrative to justify another Bretton Woods-like reset.

To those who have studied, or far worse, experienced the Second World War, do you think it’s even remotely fair to compare it to the “war on Covid”?

The Carefully Telegraphed “Reset”

And what is this “needed” reset?

In a nutshell, it’s more fake money in the form of CBDC or even digital SDR’s from that shameless control center of failed monetarism otherwise known as the IMF and a central bank near you.

Those Who Control Money & Information

In an open and free system, rather than criminalising police officers, nurses, or even athletes who refuse a jab, should we not be pointing our headlines, adjectives and subpoenas at the bankers, experts and policy makers who put the global financial system at this horrific, debt-soaked and socially destructive turning point?

Are you waiting for Mark Zuckerberg, Don Lemon, Wolf Blitzer or the censorship boards at YouTube or Google to guide you?

Sadly, those who control money as well as information have immense and undeniable power.

Thus, a media that controls deliberate COVID distraction, supported by the lords who created this financial serfdom, continues.

That is, the feudalists responsible for such grossly mismanaged financial markets are all too aware (and nervous) that they have equally created the greatest wealth transfer and wealth disparity ever witnessed, akin to the pre-revolutionary era of Bourbon France, Romanov Russia, Batista Cuba or Weimar Germany.

Such otherwise immoral and corrupt wealth disparity, wealth transfer and wealth creation explain why the very architects of the same would rather have the masses fighting about jabs, school boards, and “woke” SJWs gone wild rather than at themselves–the root cause of the fracturing we see all around us.

Why?

Because controlling serfs with lies, fear, and division is better than letting those serfs replace you with truths.

Truth Still Matters – Fundamentals, Too

For that select yet blunt and independent-thinking minority who thankfully prefer candor over propaganda, reality over fantasy and genuine rather than hyped solutions to the problems and problem-makers all around us, al l we can do is trust history, truth, natural market forces and each other.

As for us, our candid solution to the foregoing string cite of distortions, controls and historical tipping points remains the same.

Regardless of the tricks, resets, and digital new bluffs of the new feudalism, enough free-thinkers, nations, informed investors, and wealth managers understand that they hold a better (and golden) hand to combat the dirty hands and dirty currencies unravelling all around us.

If there’s one thing history and free market forces have taught us it’s this: In the end, broken systems die and real money returns.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 22:35

Iran Clarifies That Nuclear Talks Will Fail If US Pushes Zero Enrichment

Zero Hedge -

Iran Clarifies That Nuclear Talks Will Fail If US Pushes Zero Enrichment

Last week, a top Iranian nuclear official floated the possibility that the Islamic Republic would be willing to given up enriching uranium in return for full sanctions relief from Washington.

But amid ongoing negotiations, the Iranian Foreign Ministry has produced something more official, firing back at Washington on Monday for recent Trump admin statements insisting that Tehran abandon uranium enrichment as part of any future nuclear deal.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baqaei said in a statement that the US taking such "contradictory positions" will only "prolong the talks and lead to a loss of trust." It's clear that Iranian leadership doesn't want to be seen as quickly cowering before American pressure.

At this point Tehran is vowing that enrichment will continue "with or without a deal" and that this is its right to do so as a matter of national sovereignty. 

"This track of talks cannot be brought to a conclusion given the shifting and contradictory positions. Under such circumstances, we do not expect an atmosphere of mutual trust," Baqaei added.

And separately, Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said that the nuclear talks will “lead nowhere” with the current White House stance that enrichment must be taken to zero.

"Our position on enrichment is clear and we have repeatedly stated that it is a national achievement from which we will not back down," he said.

President Trump during his Gulf tour last week said largely optimistic things concerning a possible future new deal with the Iranians.

He said an agreement was very close but that Iran needed to move quickly, and that serious consequences await if Tehran doesn't. He's previously gone so far as to say it's a matter of either signing a deal or being bombed - something Iranian leaders balked at.

But Steve Witkoff on the Sunday news shows made clear that the issue of abandoning enrichment is a "red line" from the US administration...

Last week the Trump White House indicated it sent Iran a written proposal toward forging a new nuclear deal. White House envoy Witkoff has led several rounds of talks, and Axios has revealed that the communication was issued to Tehran last Sunday.

"Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took the proposal back to Tehran for consultations with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and other top officials," wrote Axios.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 22:10

What Joe Biden's Cancer Can (And Should) Teach Us About The Media

Zero Hedge -

What Joe Biden's Cancer Can (And Should) Teach Us About The Media

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

Last night the news broke that former President Joe Biden has been diagnosed with stage 4 prostate cancer, which has already metastasized to his bones.

The conversation has gone in two predictable directions.

On the one hand you have the predictable “out pouring of support” from fans of Team Blue, “liberal” journalists and celebrities.

On the other hand you have cynical commentary from Team Red, questioning the timing of the announcement and wondering how someone with such a high profile and (presumably) first class medical care could have cancer missed until such a late stage.

A third, quieter, option is to suggest a connection between this cancer and the Covid “vaccine”.

(A possibility I reject out of hand, because I don’t believe there is any chance at all he was really given the experimental shot.)

But all of these conversations miss the point.

The question is not “what caused Biden’s cancer?” or “why did they cover up Biden’s cancer?” it’s “why are they telling us Biden has cancer?”

Remember, the same media reporting “Biden has cancer” spent months reporting “Biden doesn’t have dementia” and “Biden’s as sharp as ever”, despite plain evidence to the contrary.

They lied. Over and and over again, for years. 

They quite literally told you to disregard the evidence of your eyes and ears.

Until they stopped, and suddenly Joe Biden’s “mental decline” was no longer a conspiracy theory, but totally real and the reason to put Kamala Harris on the ballot.

Joe Biden’s mental acuity did not change, all that changed was the requirement of the narrative.

Media reportage has no correlation with the truth. 

Not negative correlation, no correlation. They are unrelated.

If Joe Biden had cancer, and it was narratively convenient that he did not, they would say he did not.

If Joe Biden didn’t have cancer, and it was narratively convenient that he did, they would say he did.

If it becomes narratively convenient that Biden no longer has cancer, they will just say it went away – and that will have no bearing or relation on whether or not it did go away, or ever existed in the first place.

If Joe Biden died tomorrow, and it was narratively convenient he was alive, they would pretend he was alive. 

And with current video and photo editing software it wouldn’t even be that hard.

The news cycle has a purpose that is not related to facts or truth – again, not “opposed to” but “not related” – and as such our conversations about “the news” must be had, almost entirely, on the meta level.

Why this? Why now?

I really feel like I have said this a lot.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 21:45

Historic Women's College Gives Honorary Degree To Rachel Levine (A Man)

Zero Hedge -

Historic Women's College Gives Honorary Degree To Rachel Levine (A Man)

It is an interesting kind of horror that modern academia, an environment where objective facts should be most revered, has instead become an environment where objective facts are most reviled.  The complete denial of biological reality within the western academic community is an enduring source of social disruption.  Their continued promotion of gender fluid theory, based on zero concrete scientific evidence, is stealing opportunities from real women and turning western education into an embarrassing mockery.

The Trump Administration's efforts to reverse the cancerous growth of wokeness in public institutions is making a difference, but there are still many areas of American life that will remain infected for years to come.

The latest example is the recent announcement that Dr. Rachel Levine (formerly Richard Levine), a man pretending to be a woman, is  being awarded an honorary degree by Smith College in Massachusetts.  Keep in mind, Smith College is a historic private women's college. 

Levine has also been given the honor of addressing graduates in a commencement speech with "words of wisdom" for women entering the professional world.  Rachel Levine served as the "first trans Secretary for Health" for the US Department of Health and Human Services under the Biden Administration.  Levine exploited the position to push trans propaganda on the American public.  He also widely advocated for the gender transitioning of children.  

Chartered in 1871 by Sophia Smith and opened in 1875, Smith is a member of the historic Seven Sisters colleges, a group of women's colleges in the Northeastern United States.  It should be noted that Smith College has received extensive federal funding, which is something the Trump Administration might want to look into.

The school's decision to give an honorary degree to a man has led to some backlash, with women protesters speaking out on the hypocrisy.  The issue of men going trans and invading women's spaces has divided the feminist movement, with woke extremists on one side and "TERFs" (trans-exclusionary radical feminists) on the other side.  The "TERF" label is meant to be a pejorative insult to those women that refuse to accept trans women (men) as legitimate women.

The overarching problem with the trans movement is that it demands the normalization and even celebration of mental illness under protected group status.  On the totem pole of social justice, trans people are at the top, enjoying a venerated position even above black women and gays.  The level of hand holding and social coddling of transgenders hit almost worshipful heights during the Biden Administration's woke blitz.  It was a primary factor in the eventual fall of the Democratic Party.   

Virtue signaling among the academic elite suggests that progressives have still not learned their lesson when it comes to biological reality and the US has a ways to go before the trans issue is settled. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 19:40

Marx's Economic Forecasts: Over 150 Years Of Failure

Zero Hedge -

Marx's Economic Forecasts: Over 150 Years Of Failure

Authored by Richard Fulmer via The Mises Institute,

From atop the flawed foundation of the Labor Theory of Value, Karl Marx made a series of predictions about capitalism that time has proven incorrect. Among these are the immiseration of the masses due to capital accumulation, chronic overproduction, capitalist-driven imperialism, and the inevitable rise of monopolies.

Immiseration

Even during Marx’s lifetime, capitalism was already improving the material conditions of workers and raising living standards. The Industrial Revolution, along with advancements in technology and productivity, enabled even low-skilled workers to achieve a standard of living once unimaginable to even the wealthiest.

In fact, capitalism has delivered many of the promises socialism once made. Marx envisioned a future where the working class would achieve prosperity, leisure, and cultural development—goals largely realized under capitalist systems. Today, workers enjoy higher real wages, shorter workweeks, better working conditions, and greater access to healthcare and education than at any time in history. Innovations once considered luxuries—such as indoor plumbing, refrigeration, and instant global communication—are now standard for much of the world’s population.

Capital Equipment

Marx believed that new technology:

  • Eliminated jobs and forced workers into lower-wage positions. He theorized that automation would create a permanent “industrial reserve army” of unemployed workers, driving wages down.

  • Reduced workers to mere machine operators. He argued that specialization and mechanization would strip workers of their skills and bargaining power.

  • Extracted more work in less time. He feared that capitalists would use technology to increase profits by lengthening shifts, reducing breaks, and intensifying production speeds.

Instead, technology has increased workers’ productivity, making them more valuable to employers, who, in turn, offer higher wages to attract and retain them. While some jobs have been eliminated, new industries and occupations have emerged, often requiring higher skill levels. Factory workers today perform fewer menial tasks and more complex functions, such as CNC (computer numerical control) machine programming, maintenance, and oversight of automated systems.

Rather than longer workdays, the average time on the job has significantly declined. In Marx’s time, factory workers commonly labored 60-80 hours per week. Today, most industrialized nations have 35-40-hour workweeks, and benefits like paid time off, sick leave, and retirement plans are widespread. Moreover, automation has largely eliminated the most dangerous and physically punishing tasks.

Marx saw economic progress as a zero-sum game, where capitalists’ gains necessarily meant workers’ losses. Instead, technological advancements have expanded economic output, creating new industries, higher wages, and improved working conditions.

Overproduction

Marx claimed that capitalist employers would suppress wages to the point that workers couldn’t afford to buy the goods they produced, leading to unsold inventory and economic collapse. But workers are never expected to buy everything they produce in any economic system.

Consider a cobbler in medieval Europe who made 30 pairs of shoes per month. He couldn’t possibly purchase all of them—he had to sell them to buy food, clothing, and materials for more shoes. But the shoe market didn’t collapse because demand wasn’t limited to cobblers—other people needed shoes too.

Similarly, in modern economies, businesses don’t rely solely on their employees as customers; they sell to a broad market that includes domestic and international consumers. Capitalism has consistently overcome supply-demand imbalances through pricing mechanisms, market expansion, and innovation.

Imperialism

Marx believed capitalists profited by extracting “surplus value” from workers—paying them less than the value of their production. He argued that as automation and competition reduced profit margins, capitalists would exploit workers by cutting wages or increasing working hours, and seek new sources of cheap labor, ultimately resorting to conquest to sustain profits.

This prediction failed on multiple fronts. First, workers’ ability to switch jobs, negotiate higher wages, or start businesses prevents employers from driving wages to subsistence levels, though the same cannot be said for Marxist-Leninist societies in which the state is the only employer.

Second, trade—not conquest—has proven to be the more effective path to economic expansion. As Adam Smith noted in The Wealth of Nations, war and colonization are more costly and less productive and profitable than is voluntary exchange. The reason why war and imperialism correlates with capitalism is because the state—allied with crony capitalists—expands off of the wealth from capitalism.

Finally, capitalism fosters innovation, creating new markets and industries. Economic growth has come not from territorial expansion but from developing new goods, services, and business models that increase wealth across society.

Monopoly

Marx predicted that competition would inevitably drive smaller firms out of business, leaving only a handful of monopolies powerful enough to suppress wages, control prices, and stifle innovation.

While monopolies do arise, they are typically short-lived in competitive markets. Whenever an entrepreneur introduces a new product or service, he may temporarily enjoy a dominant market position, but competitors soon emerge if the government does not prevent market entry. In fact, this situation does not technically describe a monopoly since monopolies involve legal privileging of politically-connected firms by the state.

Furthermore, as companies grow too large, they often face diseconomies of scale—inefficiencies that increase costs and reduce agility. Bureaucracy, slow decision-making, and organizational complexity often weaken large firms, opening opportunities for smaller, more innovative competitors.

Ultimately, government intervention, rather than free markets, has been the primary enabler of enduring monopolies. Regulations, subsidies, and licensing requirements frequently serve to protect established firms from competition.

Conclusion

Karl Marx’s predictions about capitalism have consistently failed. Instead of immiseration, capitalism has increased living standards. Instead of job destruction, technology has created new industries and opportunities. Instead of economic collapse due to overproduction, global trade has flourished. Instead of conquest, capitalism has fostered economic expansion through voluntary exchange. And instead of monopolistic stagnation, competition and innovation continue to drive economic progress, despite the intervention of political states.

Marx’s economic forecasts were not just incorrect but fundamentally flawed. Capitalism, despite its imperfections, has outperformed Marx’s vision by delivering prosperity on an unprecedented scale.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 19:15

House Republicans Press Harvard For Transparency Over Alleged Ties To Chinese Military

Zero Hedge -

House Republicans Press Harvard For Transparency Over Alleged Ties To Chinese Military

Woke elites running Harvard University into the ground faced fresh controversy on Monday morning as House Republicans launched a formal inquiry into the school's reported ties with foreign adversaries, citing serious national security and ethical concerns.

The House Select Committee on China, joined by the House Committee on Education and Workforce and Chairwoman of House Republican Leadership Elise Stefanik, sent a letter to Harvard demanding transparency and accountability regarding the university's partnerships with foreign adversaries and entities involved in human rights abuses. 

The investigation focuses on the university's reported partnerships with Chinese military-linked institutions, sanctioned entities, and researchers tied to the Iranian regime.

House Republicans are demanding internal documents and testimony, adding to a growing list of challenges plaguing the university, including recent controversies over campus antisemitism and donor backlash.

Addressed to Harvard President Alan Garber, the letter sent by Education and Workforce Committee Chairman Tim Walberg (R-MI), Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI), and House Republican Leadership Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY) outlined Harvard's troubling partnerships and activities that raise alarm bells about national security and ethical concerns: 

  • Harvard's repeated training of members of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC)—a U.S.-sanctioned paramilitary group that plays a central role in the Chinese Communist Party's genocide of Uyghur Muslims

  • Research partnerships funded by the Department of Defense with Chinese military-linked universities, including Tsinghua, Zhejiang, and Huazhong Universities

  • Collaborations with Iranian-government-funded researchers, including projects financed by the Iranian National Science Foundation

  • Organ transplantation research involving PRC-based collaborators, amid mounting evidence of the CCP's forced organ harvesting practices

Moolenaar stated, "Harvard trained members of a sanctioned Chinese paramilitary group responsible for genocide, and its researchers partnered with Chinese military universities on DoD-funded research and worked with researchers funded by the Iranian regime," adding, "These are not isolated incidents—they represent a disturbing pattern that puts U.S. national security at risk. The Select Committee's investigation will deliver answers, expose the truth, and hold Harvard accountable to the American people."

Chairman Walberg stated, "No American university or college should be assisting the CCP in expanding its influence, oppressing American citizens, or undermining U.S. national security," adding, "Unfortunately, we have found several instances in which Harvard University aided and even collaborated with the CCP – including helping Chinese researchers on military projects funded by the Iranian government. This is unacceptable and President Garber needs to provide answers to Congress for this colossal failure."

And Chairwoman Stefanik stated, "Harvard University must be held accountable. I demand full transparency and immediate cooperation with the Select Committee's investigation. We must ensure that no American institution enables the CCP's military modernization or the Iranian regime's technological ambitions — especially under the guise of academic exchange." 

The news of the House Republican investigation into Harvard's questionable foreign ties follows widespread layoffs reported last week following the U.S. government's termination notices for federally funded research projects. 

So far, the Trump administration has canceled approximately $2.7 billion in grants, with another nearly $1 billion in funding for Harvard's research partners at risk.

President Garber announced he would soon take a 25% pay cut after losing federal funding. He refused the Trump administration's simple request to comply with concerns over DEI and antisemitism.

"More than 80 faculty members — from several schools and academic units — have pledged to donate 10 percent of their salaries for up to a year to support the University if it continues to resist the Trump administration," The Harvard Crimson recently reported.

So brave.

Harvard alumnus Bill Ackman commented last week about the school's death spiral.

We suspect House Republicans won't stop with Harvard. These investigations are likely to expand to other Ivy League schools that have aggressively pushed toxic Marxist DEI agendas—initiatives that, in some cases, may have been influenced by foreign adversaries to undermine the nation. Some of these elite schools foster disdain for America, which is deeply troubling. This trend must be confronted and reversed.

 

*   *    * 

Full Letter to Harvard U. from House Republicans... Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 18:50

Don't Take The Black Pill

Zero Hedge -

Don't Take The Black Pill

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

What kinds of attitudes do you bring to the prospect of political and social change? The answer matters more than we think. Those with hope and passion for improvement tend to win the day, especially if the other side merely wallows in grievance and despair.

This is true for writers and intellectuals too. We are all trying to find our way through in a thicket of confusion in what are truly treacherous times. In the backdrop stands a complex emotional template that can profoundly affect how we see the world and its future.

G.K. Chesterton once wrote that he rejects both optimism and pessimism, preferring to look at reality itself, even in the darkest of times, with hope and not despair. It is equally important to look at the brightest times with trepidation that something might, alas, be broken underneath the surface and therefore they won’t last.

Those words have stuck with me. A naive optimism is as pointless as the fatalism of a perpetually downcast pessimism that sees every sign of improvement as a delusion.

The times call on all of us to adopt a more Chestertonian attitude toward the world around us, our expectations for the future, and our own role in it. The bias of eschatological certainty can blind in both directions, either by chaining us to dread of a doomed future or by luring us into complacency with visions of an eminently dawning utopia.

Many people are traumatized from the last five years. We’ve discovered that many of the conspiracy theories are true. There were memes passed around over these years that the wackiest theories last month seem to come true this month.

Elon Musk even confirmed it. When he took over Twitter and got a first-hand look at what was being censored and why, he told interviewers that every conspiracy theory is true and then some. His comment underscores the feeling of betrayal sensed by everyone in public and private life today.

When you go through times like this, the oldest spiritual battles confront all of us. We can join in the rot while throwing away all standards of decency and honesty. The presumption here is that the system is corrupt so we might as well join in, like rioters when the fires start to burn.

Another response is to throw yourself into being part of the solution in some way at some level. This could be in your own household or it could be in national politics, plus everything in between.

What increasingly concerns me is a different breed that has come to populate the dissident movement, especially these days and in light of all we’ve been through. These are people who have done vast reading and discovered that the problems around us are extremely deep, tracing to classified worlds of darkness and occult influences. They extend this analysis far back in time, even tracing this to the ancient world.

There is nothing wrong with that outlook as such except that it does feed into a conviction that there is no escape under any conditions. Rather than join in or fly into a hopeful opposition with constructive efforts to change, they construct an ideology of despair. This says that there is nothing to be done because the bad guys rule all things.

There is no chance for progress, says this view, and anything that looks hopeful is nothing but a sham. All seeming good news or admissions of wrongdoing are nothing but “limited hangouts,” probably pushed by “controlled opposition,” making concessions to distract us from the dark truths of our entrenched and depraved destiny.

In popular parlance, and tracing to the model presented in the movie “The Matrix,” these are people who take the Black Pill. This is different from the Blue Pill, which is what you take to go along to get along, or the Red Pill, which is what you take to be part of the reality-based solution. The Black Pill is what you take to wallow in despair and drag everyone around down with you.

I suspect you know someone who has taken the Black Pill. I have variously encountered them for years. Frustrated with such people, the pen name Midwestern Doctor recently wrote that the Black Pill leads people to say: “it’s futile to ever make things better so if you try to, you’re just getting scammed,” “all the things being proposed are actually distractions to keep us from fixing the real problem,” and “the person proposing this terrible proposal is actually an enemy trying to sabotage the movement.”

The Black Pill is seductive because it “It gives you a way to feel in control of your environment (by declaring it’s hopeless to do anything) and superior to others (by knowing a secret truth they don’t know).” Yes, it is easily rendered as a form of Gnosticism, a theory that only a few know the fullness of the esoteric truth while all exoteric knowledge is mere veneer.

The Black Pill is closely related to the problem of purity seeking. No change in social policy, law, or legislation will ever be enough, of course. For that reason, every hint of progress, even vast progress, is easily presented as a trick designed to hide more fundamental corruption. Nothing is ever good enough, and any attempt to make something better is itself part of the problem because it deceives people into thinking there will ever be a way out of the morass.

It’s inevitable that Black-Pilled purists will be meanest to those they are the closest to. This is because those are the people who will listen to them, and the social set among which they can make a difference. For this reason, they can be toxic to any attempt at community organizing, social cohesion, or basic demands of collegiality. When people figure out the game and block them or stop inviting them, they always have a ready excuse: the leadership of the group is clearly compromised and part of the enemy.

This only scratches the surface of the problems of Black-Pilled purists. Because they rule out the possibility of making a difference for good, they target those who try and put down every effort to improve the world. De facto, they always end up saying that the existing status quo, however bad it is, is actually better than the reformed world given to us by people who are compromised and playing ball with the elites. Perversely, then, the purists in every movement eventually become useful servants of the very elites they claim to oppose.

If you follow what I’ve written above, you can understand why some small minority of people that who worked to bring the Trump administration to power, or at least contributed to raising grave doubts about alternatives, are now putting down every effort at reform, even tangible victories.

The MAGA and MAHA movement has Black-Pilled purists in its ranks who will never be satisfied until condition X is met. Condition X could be an end to all hormones in livestock, a ban on all GMOs, an end to all foreign aid, a withdrawal and ban of mRNA shots or all vaccines, stopping all trade with China, or whatever other condition you name, which they always deem the top priority.

Nothing less will do. When that condition is met, there will always be more, because the point is not actually betterment but perpetual alienation from the idea of betterment itself.

As you can see, such people do not work and play well with others, make difficult colleagues, and end up as destructive forces within any attempted community of activists or intellectuals. Such people thrive on factionalism in every smaller unit of interest, all with the hope of being the leader of a community of their own creation, even if it is a community of one.

Such people invariably drive people off from any community, displacing productive and hopeful people with more followers of their dark worldview. Sadly, they are rarely blocked before they cause damage because they specialize in playing off the tolerance of others and the fear of leadership in being called censors or hidden assets of the bad guys.

The biggest problem with the Black Pill is spiritual. It is not possible to wallow constantly in despair and keep it from invading every nook and cranny of the brain, heart, and soul. It becomes an addiction to the point that such people will never be satisfied without the dopamine rush that comes with trashing everything and everybody no matter what.

Don’t take the Black Pill. Again, the attitude of Chesterton is the right one: Even in the darkest of times, hope is better than despair. A naive optimism is as unproductive as a perpetually downcast and paralyzing pessimism that sees every sign of improvement as a delusion.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 18:25

Vance Abruptly Cancels Israel Visit As IDF Expands Gaza Operations

Zero Hedge -

Vance Abruptly Cancels Israel Visit As IDF Expands Gaza Operations

More friction between Israel and the United States has come to light Monday as Vice President JD Vance has canceled a planned official trip to Israel due to the expansion of Israel's military operation in Gaza, according to a senior US official cited in Axios.

The report emphasizes that "The US official said Vance made the decision because he didn't want his trip to suggest the Trump administration endorsed the Israeli decision to launch a massive operation at a time when the U.S. is pushing for a ceasefire and hostage deal."

VP Vance in Rome. AFP/Getty Images

Still, Vance sought to downplay this as purely a political pressure move or strong signaling to Israel by saying it comes down to "logistical" issues.

"Logistically, it was just a little bit too hard on basic things like, who the hell is going to take care of our kids if we take another couple of days overseas?" he said Monday in response to a question about the trip. "I’m sure we’ll visit Israel sometime in the future, but not today," Vance added. The question of childcare or babysitting is certainly an unexpected reason or explanation, or dubious.

Starting Friday the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced an expanded mobilization of troops for operation 'Gideon's Chariots'. Some two million Palestinians are expected to be forced into a "humanitarian zone" while most of the enclave is destroyed and flattened.

The policy somewhat contradicts Trump's main messaging during last week's Gulf tour, wherein he emphasized peace through deal-making, and not 'chaos' in the war-torn Middle East. 

According to a timeline of the Vance trip cancellation issued by Axios:

  • Additional discussions took place on Sunday between U.S. and Israeli officials to prepare for Vance's visit. Reports soon popped up in the Israeli press that Vance might arrive on Tuesday.
  • Several hours later, a White House official denied the reports in a statement to reporters traveling with the VP. "While the Secret Service has engaged in contingency planning for the addition of several potential countries, no additional visits were at any point decided upon, and logistical constraints have precluded an extension of his travel beyond Rome. He will return to Washington on Monday."

In the White House press briefing room Monday morning, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt responded to a question by ZeroHedge by saying President Trump "has made it very clear he wants to see this conflict in the region end."

"The president is moving as quickly as he possibly can and working overtime to end these conflicts in both Israel and Gaza and also the Russia-Ukraine war," Leavitt added. "The president made it very clear to Hamas that he wanted to see all hostages released."

Several reports earlier this month pointed to severely strained ties between Trump and Netanyahu; however, the US president has since sought to downplay this. Yet Vance abruptly canceling his Israel trip certainly points to trouble between Washington and Tel Aviv.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 18:00

Top FDA Official Discloses She Never Received COVID-19 Vaccine

Zero Hedge -

Top FDA Official Discloses She Never Received COVID-19 Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A top Food and Drug Administration (FDA) official said on May 15 that she never took a COVID-19 vaccine due to concerns about biodistribution.

Dr. Sara Brenner, the FDA’s principal deputy commissioner, said during an event in Washington that she did not receive any of the COVID-19 vaccines.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Brenner said that she was pregnant during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It was unknown at the time what the biodistribution patterns of those products were, and in my case, in particular, what the excretion would be in breast milk,” Brenner said. “That was my primary concern, and that exposure I was very concerned about.”

When asked whether the information that has emerged since then validates her choice, Brenner, who said she was not speaking on behalf of the FDA, said she thinks it does.

Researchers reported in a 2022 paper that messenger ribonucleic acid, which is in the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 shots, was detected in human breast milk. Another paper, in 2023, detailed similar findings.

Pfizer and Moderna did not return requests for comment.

Dr. Marty Makary, the FDA’s commissioner, has been critical of COVID-19 vaccine boosters. He has indicated that he received a primary series of one of the vaccines.

About 81 percent of the U.S. population received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine as of the spring of 2023, according to federal data.

Brenner was speaking at an event held by a new group that is seeking to help influence officials such as Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and their promotion of an agenda dubbed Make America Healthy Again (MAHA). The group is called the MAHA Institute.

The comments came on the same day a health official confirmed to The Epoch Times that officials will stop recommending routine COVID-19 vaccination for youth and pregnant women. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which, like the FDA, is part of the Department of Health and Human Services, currently recommends that people aged 6 months and older receive at least one dose of the currently available vaccines.

Brenner, who has trained as a preventative medicine doctor and has expertise in nanotechnology, has been with the FDA since the first Trump administration. She was the agency’s chief medical officer for diagnostics during the pandemic and was detailed to support White House efforts to respond to COVID-19 while Joe Biden was president.

Brenner recalled conducting toxicology research while in school, including examining biodistribution. She said that an important part of medicine is looking at the unintended effects, also known as adverse events or side effects. She also said she knew that the lipid nanoparticles used to deliver mRNA in the COVID-19 vaccines could result in unintended effects.

Brenner referred to previous years in the government as a dark time, but described the present day as a new dawn, with fresh leaders such as Kennedy in place.

“We’re moving very quickly to make it such that there will be more transparency, more available data and information, so that people ... can see and evaluate for themselves sort of what the truths are and what’s known and unknown,” she said. “And I'll go ahead and put it that way, because one of the biggest misses, I think, in the previous several years is that there was no acknowledgement of what was unknown, right? There was there were only statements and assertions that were really more like beliefs or things that were desired to be true than they were true knowns.”

Brenner said that a key part of regaining trust from the public is being honest and transparent. She also said she believes that the vast majority of government workers are good people who want to serve their country and try to do their best, and that it will take a long time to figure out how events unfolded during the pandemic.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/19/2025 - 17:40

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