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Senate Democrats Blink: DHS Deal Emerges After Weeks Of Gridlock

Zero Hedge -

Senate Democrats Blink: DHS Deal Emerges After Weeks Of Gridlock

After more than a month of political stalemate, the Senate Democrats are finally flinching, and a deal to reopen the Department of Homeland Security seems within reach - even if the path looks like a compromise designed to please no one. 

Key Senate Republicans left the White House late Monday in a noticeably upbeat mood, telling colleagues that there is now a realistic framework to get DHS running again, even as President Donald Trump continues to demand that the SAVE America Act be “welded in” to any funding package. 

According to a report from Punchbowl News, the outlines of the emerging agreement would fund nearly all of DHS while carving out ICE’s migrant removal operations, then use a separate reconciliation bill to backfill ICE and press ahead with the two key provisions of the SAVE America Act (proof of citizenship to register to vote and a photo ID to cast a ballot in federal election) that Trump has made very clear is his top legislative priority.

“This framework is similar to the outlines of an agreement that Senate Majority Leader John Thune discussed with Trump on Sunday - a strategy that the president rejected. Trump has insisted on tying the SAVE America Act to DHS funding, complicating matters even further. Thune said this was ‘not realistic,” explains Punchbowl. “It’s too early to say whether this DHS framework will satisfy Senate Democrats. There are several key details that still need to be ironed out. But many Democrats pointed to what they see as a sense of urgency to get something done, especially as nightmarish TSA security lines cause chaos for millions of air travellers.”

Republican leaders, including Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), are openly talking about a two‑step reconciliation strategy: first, fund the rest of ICE using budget‑reconciliation so Democrats do not have to vote “yes,” and second, attach pieces of the SAVE America Act to a broader reconciliation package that could also include a $200 billion defense‑spending push and random pet priorities from the GOP base. Kennedy has framed reconciliation as the only way to get policies through amid Democratic obstruction, but he acknowledges there is a question as to whether the votes are there.

“It’ll take a little longer,” Kennedy said. “But we could do it. If you want to throw in the SAVE Act, I’m fine with that. I don’t know how feasible that is in terms of the whip count.”

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) noted that the reconciliation process itself takes “about a month,” meaning even if leadership wanted to rush a deal, the machinery of the Senate would impose a natural delay.

Behind the closed‑door negotiations is another quiet calculation: the Senate parliamentarian. Republicans know that using reconciliation to pass the SAVE America Act’s citizenship‑verification and voter‑ID provisions is no sure thing, and many privately doubt the parliamentarian will bless such a move. 

That raises the possibility of a vote to overrule Elizabeth MacDonough, a nuclear‑option maneuver that would infuriate Democrats and probably trigger a fresh round of partisan recriminations. Thune has previously cast doubt on that idea, suggesting he would rather avoid the backlash than force the vote. However, there is precedent, since Democrats used reconciliation to pass Obamacare back in 2010.

Both sides also know that the DHS shutdown cannot go on indefinitely, and both want to emerge from this standoff claiming victory. But, with Democrats appearing eager to do something, it’s clearly progress.

* * *

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 16:50

Oil Tumbles, Stocks Surges As Israeli TV Reports US Seeks 'One Month Ceasefire'

Zero Hedge -

Oil Tumbles, Stocks Surges As Israeli TV Reports US Seeks 'One Month Ceasefire' Summary

  • US seeks a one-month ceasefire with a framework to end the war, according to Israel Channel 12 reports

  • WSJ, Fox reporting 3,000 elite Army Airborne soldiers to be ordered to Middle East. Axios says US awaits Iran response to proposed Thursday peace talks. Trump says Iran has been destroyed "militarily". 

  • Backchannel diplomacy vs skepticism: Abbas Araghchi reportedly signaled openness to negotiations with the US via envoy Steve Witkoff, but Israel has appeared cool on deal prospects or offramp.

  • Heavy exchange of fire and testing red lines: Iran continues missile and drone waves targeting Israel and US bases, amid reports of overnight airstrikes on military and gas infrastructure near Isfahan.

  • Iran reshuffles its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr: he's a former IRGC commander and replaces the assassinated Ali Larijani.

  • Iran halts natural gas exports to Turkey: follows last week's Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field; QatarEnergy declares force majeure on some LNG contracts due war.

*  *  *

US Seeks One-Month Ceasefire, Sent Iran Plan To End War; Israeli TV

Israel's Channel 12 TV is reporting that the US is seeking a ceasefire period of one month, to be announced shortly, to work on a framework that Witkoff and Kushner are working on.

Despite many skeptics' claims, President Trump had earlier confirmed that talks were taking place "right now", claiming that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner held talks Sunday with an Iranian leader.

He did not say who that was.

Trump earlier signaled that Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations the US leader has claimed are ongoing to end a 25-day conflict that’s upended global markets, even as he deploys more troops to the Middle East.

Trump wouldn’t detail the gift, “worth a tremendous amount of money,” but confirmed it was related to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The New York Times reports that the plan was delivered via Pakistan, whose army chief has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, officials say.

Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively, the officials added. Field Marshal Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, putting him in a position to pass messages between the warring sides, they said.

He recently reached out to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, proposing that Pakistan host talks between Iran and the United States, said an Iranian official and a Pakistani official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive communications.

Field Marshal Munir met twice in 2025 with President Trump, who has showered praise on him, saying he was his “favorite field marshal.”

It was unclear how widely the plan had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations.

Nor was it clear whether Israel was on board with the proposal.

Nevertheless, the delivery of the plan showed that the administration was ramping up efforts to conclude a war, now in its fourth week, that has drawn in several other countries.

The ceasefire period will be used to negotiate an agreement based on the following points: (emphasis ours):

What does the US want from Iran?

  1. Dismantling existing nuclear capabilities that have already been accumulated

  2. A commitment that Iran will never pursue nuclear weapons

  3. No material will be enriched on Iranian soil.

  4. All enriched material will be delivered to Saba on a schedule to be determined by the parties.

  5. Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow will be decommissioned - destroyed

  6. The Atomic Energy Agency will be exposed to all information within Iran's borders.

  7. Iran will abandon the proxy paradigm

  8. Stop actually funding and arming the proxies in the region.

  9. The Strait of Hormuz will remain open, will be a free maritime zone - and no one will block it

  10. Postponement of decision on ballistic missile program

  11. Ballistic missiles are only used for defense

What will Iran get in return?

  1. Lifting all sanctions

  2. Will assist them in promoting and developing a civil nuclear project in Bushehr (electricity generation)

  3. The snapback threat of sanctions will be removed

According to Channel 12's report, Israel is concerned about proposal and thinks it is unlikely Iran will accept the terms.

The immediate reaction was a drop in crude oil prices...

...and the mirror image rise in US equity futures...

The Hill reports that President Trump said Tuesday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine were “disappointed” by the idea of a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire with Iran.

Hegseth and Caine were “the only two people that were quite disappointed” the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran may soon come to an end, Trump said in the Oval Office following the swearing in of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin.

“I think this thing’s going to be settled very soon and they go, ‘Oh, that’s too bad.’ Pete didn’t want it to be settled,” Trump said. 

“They were not interested in settlement. They were interested in just winning this thing,” he added. 

How long before we get a denial (or a rejection from Iran)? And let's just all forget about the imminent 'boots on the ground'?

No Change in Trump Iran Rhetoric in latest from WH

Trump in the oval once again addressed the Iran conflict, saying "this is a change in the Iranian regime," and went further, stating, “I think we can say this is regime change."

Trump expressed confidence that negotiations would conclude successfully, saying, "they are going to make a deal; they gave us a significant prize worth tremendous amount of money," later reiterating that Iran had "gave us a very big present" worth "a very big amount of money" - supposedly the Strait of Hormuz. He asserted "we'll have control of anything we want."

He also hailed that Iran has been completely destroyed "militarily" - but without addressing the fact that Iranian forces continue to fire rockets on targets across the region. He at one point proclaimed once again: "we won" - but blamed the "fake news media" for not acknowledging that.

Reports of US-Iran Peace Talks for Thursday

Axios reports another 'maybe' planned peace talks: "The U.S. and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the discussions" were cited as saying.

As has been the case for days, Tehran is denying that it is in dialogue with Washington, also as the White House has talked about "escalating to de-escalate" - and now amid reports of elite 82nd Airborne troops about to deploy to the region. Trump is reportedly interested in "winding down" the war, but is there an actual plan to do this? More from Axios:

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel's objectives, includes significant concessions, and limits Israel's ability to conduct strikes against Iran, two Israeli sources say.
  • A third source said Israeli leaders were skeptical Iran had actually offered the concessions the U.S. claimed.

Trump confirms efforts, which may still be unreciprocated:

TRUMP: WE'RE IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN RIGHT NOW

TRUMP: RUBIO, VANCE, OTHER PEOPLE ARE NEGOTIATING WITH IRAN

TRUMP SAYS IRAN IS 'TALKING SENSE'

TRUMP: IRAN AGREED THEY'LL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON

82nd Airborne Division Deploying to Middle East

Amid speculation that President Trump could seek to force open the Strait of Hormuz by some kind of ultra high risk Kharg Island takeover operation, Fox chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin has posted the following:

Fox News has learned that the Commander of the 82nd Airborne Division Maj Gen Brandon Tegtmeier and his “command element,” members of his headquarters staff, have been ordered to deploy to the Middle East as the Pentagon and White House weigh whether to send the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East for possible land operations.

It was only on Monday that the NYT began reporting Pentagon was seriously weighing whether to send the elite 82nd Airborne. This would be a sure sign of escalation into potential 'ground operations'.

Here's more from WSJ:

The Pentagon is planning to deploy about 3,000 soldiers from the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East to support operations against Iran, according to two U.S. officials, with a written order expected in the coming hours.

Officials cautioned that a decision to put boots on the ground in Iran hasn’t been made. But deploying the 82nd opens the door to President Trump for several strategic options.

Iran & Israel Trade Blows Despite US Promoting Backchannel Talks

Despite the White House touting backchannel interactions with the Iranians as basis for some kind of peaceful offramp, Israel and Iran intensified direct and regional strikes, in continued escalation of the war. The Israeli military said it had "completed a wave of extensive strikes targeting production sites" across Iran, including in Isfahan, following overnight reports that gas facilities were hit, triggering fears of potential Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy and infrastructure sites - which doesn't appear to have happened yet.

Iran has kept up its attacks on Israel, launching at least eight overnight missile waves, including reports of cluster munitions as well as new cutting-edge warheads and projectiles. Impacts were reported across Tel Aviv, causing heavy building damage and multiple casualties, as well as with sirens sounding from the Judean Foothills to Eilat. One strike marked a shift in capability, per the NY Times: "One of the Iranian missiles that hit Tel Aviv carried a warhead of around 100 kilograms… This missile was 'something we have not yet encountered in the war,'" said Col. Miki David.

Iran Halts NatGas Exports to Turkey

More energy flows impact and blowback as Iran has halted natural gas exports to Turkey following last week's Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field, according to regional sources and Bloomberg. Turkey sourced roughly 14% of its gas from Iran last year, per industry data, but continues to rely on Russia and Azerbaijan as primary suppliers while drawing on existing reserves. Ankara has not initially confirmed or commented.

The South Pars field, part of the world’s largest natural gas reserve, sits at the core of Iran's energy system, underpinning both domestic supply and export flows. Per Middle East Eye: "Data from Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority suggests that the country imports around 13 percent of its gas needs annually, roughly 7 billion cubic metres (bcm), from Iran."

The report concludes that "A sharp drop in Iranian gas flows to Turkey following Israel's strike on the South Pars gas field and Tehran's retaliatory attacks across the Gulf has raised energy security concerns. But analysts say Ankara will likely be able to cushion the blow.

New National Security Chief (former IRGC), Ongoing Retaliation on Gulf

Iran has continued to signal resilience, downplaying threats to its grid and stating damaged infrastructure could be quickly rebuilt, even as a gas pipeline at Khorramshahr was hit apparently without disruption. Saudi Arabia said it "intercepted and destroyed" more than a dozen drones in its east, while the UAE reported intercepting five ballistic missiles and 17 drones in a single day, bringing totals since the war began to hundreds of missiles and more than 1,800 drones. Bahrain said another facility was set ablaze "as a result of Iranian aggression."

Tehran has reportedly simultaneously struck US bases, and Gulf states including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, while warning any attack on its energy network will trigger region-wide blackouts. Northern Iraq has continued to see drone threats. "The entire region will go dark" - Iranian leadership has threatened. Meanwhile, Iran has reshuffled its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr to replace the assassinated Ali Larijani, underscoring wartime consolidation at the top. Zolghadr is a former Revolutionary Guards commander.

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr in 2013, via Wiki Commons Status of Diplomacy

Lebanon has declared the Iranian ambassador persona non grata and ordered him to leave the country by Sunday, after an Iranian ballistic missile fell on Lebanese territory. This appears also a way to pressure Hezbollah, given the Lebanese state has long wanted the Tehran-linked group to lay down is arms so war doesn't engulf the whole country.

Both Pakistan and Qatar have stepped up mediation efforts, with chatter that Islamabad could play host to future Iranian and US talks. Despite the rumors of ongoing backchannel communications, and President Trump himself insisting Sunday into Monday this is happening, there's as yet no clear evidence that Tehran and Washington are actually dialoguing. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry has told Al Jazeera that Islamabad is ready to host talks between the US and Iran: "If the parties desire, Islamabad is always willing to host talks," Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said. Andrabi’s comment came a day after Trump put on hold, for a period five days, his threat to bomb Iranian power plants.

WSJ meanwhile writes, "Foreign ministers from Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan gathered before dawn Thursday in Riyadh for talks aimed at finding a diplomatic off-ramp to the war in Iran." The report continues, "But there was one big problem, according to Arab officials involved in the discussions: finding a counterpart in Iran to negotiate with. Earlier that week, Israel killed Iran’s national security chief, Ali Larijani, who had been considered a viable partner who could engage with the West."

And Bloomberg's assessment: "Fighting between the US-Israeli alliance and Iran raged unabated, even as President Donald Trump claimed talks are under way to end the conflict." The report then notes no observable cooling or offramp in the tit-for-tat exchanges of fire:

Iran carried out overnight missile and drone attacks on the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv, Eilat and Dimona, as well as on US bases in the Middle East. Israel launched a wave of strikes in western and central Iran, including Tehran, with Defense Minister Israel Katz saying the campaign would continue “at full intensity.”

Israel is Cool on Prospect of a Deal

Reports out of regional and Israeli media claim Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quietly signaled to US envoy Steve Witkoff that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to negotiations, while Iranian officials said they have received US proposals via intermediaries and are reviewing them. However, Tehran keeps threatening and delivering more 'retaliatory' action, perceiving that it has the long-term strategic leverage given the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Trump seeming to issue forth dictates on a back foot.

Israeli officials have by and large dismissed the prospects of a deal, warning the chances of agreement are "very small" and stressing that US force deployments and joint operational planning remain unchanged. 

More Regional Spillover: Caspian & Lebanon

The Kremlin has newly warned that any expansion into the Caspian Sea would be viewed "extremely negatively" after Israeli strikes reportedly targeted Iranian naval assets there. Meanwhile, a parallel ground war in Lebanon is accelerating. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled a long-term buffer zone and mass displacement, stating, "Hundreds of thousands… will not return south of the Litani River until security is guaranteed."

Video purports to show large Israeli strike on Southern Lebanon overnight - an apparent hit on a gas station:

Israel has already destroyed key infrastructure, with Katz confirming, "All five bridges over the Litani… have been blown up," as forces move to control the area. There are over 1,000 dead and more than a million displaced in Lebanon, with much of Israel's north also still under emergency evacuation orders, given Hezbollah rocket fire there. At least two Lebanese died in the last day due to Israeli strikes Bshamoun.

*  *  * ARE YOU PREPARED?

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 16:30

Biden-Era Intel Assessment Targeted White Moms And Homemakers As Potential Domestic Terrorists

Zero Hedge -

Biden-Era Intel Assessment Targeted White Moms And Homemakers As Potential Domestic Terrorists

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Newly released CIA documents reveal that the Biden regime identified “motherhood,” and “homemaking”  as indicators of so-called “white racially and ethnically motivated violent extremism” (REMVE).

The Trump administration recently retracted an October 2021 intelligence assessment, titled “Women Advancing White Racially and Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremist Radicalization and Recruitment” that branded average women as domestic terrorists.

America First Legal (AFL), a conservative nonprofit law firm, shared the now-retracted assessment on X, saying it reveals “top-to-bottom bias at Biden’s CIA.”

The Biden CIA invented the term “white REMVEs” to describe people they claimed “incite, facilitate or conduct violence because they believe their perception of an idealized white European ethnic identity is under attack from people who embody and support multiculturalism and globalism.”

“White REMVE-sympathetic” actors are defined in the documents as those who “may not openly advocate violence” but instead amplify “narratives” about “perceived threats” from multiculturalism and globalization.

“Narratives” deemed by the Biden regime as threats included pro-life activism and promoting traditional motherhood and homemaking as “women’s most important responsibility.”

“An agency with critical intelligence responsibilities was spending its resources targeting women promoting motherhood,” AFL noted.

The assessment reveals how the Biden regime used the full force of the federal government to target traditional-minded, law-abiding Americans.

An internal memo from January 29, 2021, just 8 days after Joe Biden was sworn in, features  a “Choose Your Own Adventure” game for fellow travelers to make “real-life decisions” based on “radicalization” scenarios with various fictitious characters.

For example, one of these characters is “Ann,” who is described as a “middle-aged pro-life advocate” one would associate as “a suburban mom” who does laundry and drives a minivan.

Ann is seen as a threat because she became “increasingly devout” and “increasingly more fervent about her pro-life stance” after the death of her mother. After she is overheard asking a question about the bible’s stance on “violence in defense of life,” an intervention is recommended.  The memo encourages her  “preacher”  to schedule counseling for Ann, talk to her husband and query other members of her “church group” about her behavior.

The Biden regime went on to crack down hard on elderly pro-life protesters who demonstrated in front of a late term abortion clinic, sending them to jail for 11 years for alleged FACE Act violations. President Trump paroled all the pro-lifers (23 people) who were jailed during the Biden years in one of his first acts upon taking office. “This is a great honor to sign this,” Trump said on January 23, 2025.

The Biden Justice Department also maliciously prosecuted Mark Houck, a Catholic pro-life father of seven, who got into a scuffle with a violent pro-abortion activist who had threatened his son in October 2021. A Pennsylvania jury acquitted Houck in January 2023.

None of the pro-lifers targeted by the Biden regime had criminal records or any history of violence.

“Courtney,” a divorced mom in her mid-30s, is described in the memo as a “budding conspiracy theorist” because she believed the government was involved in child abuse and child-trafficking.

[Note: Her “fictitious” concerns were well-founded. CBP and HHS data show over 500,000 unaccompanied minors were trafficked across the southern border and tens of thousands placed with unvetted sponsors during the Biden years. A 2024 DHS Inspector General report found 291,000 of these children were missing or unaccounted for.]

“Bystanders” were encouraged to “monitor” Courtney’s social media posts, “check in with her ex-husband,” and send her a private message about how things were going.

“The Department of Homeland Security’s transformation into a domestic intelligence organization and a Stasi-like Deep State internal security apparatus is alarming,” commented Reed D. Rubinstein, America First Legal Senior Counselor and Director of Investigations.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), according to the documents, had also planned a “Family First” photoshoot to “show every day people doing every day tasks …  to emphasize that domestic terrorism can happen to anyone, but that anyone can also help prevent it.”

The Biden administration’s concern with how alleged “disinformation” was linked to the so-called “white REMVE” “domestic terrorism threat,” led to a vast, government-wide censorship program that pressured social media companies and coordinated with foreign governments to silence unapproved views on a host of topics, including abortion, the 2020 election, the origin of COVID-19, and the COVID shots.

“President Trump has rightfully retracted this Biden-era CIA intelligence assessment,” AFL stated on X. “U.S. intelligence agencies exist to protect Americans — not target them.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 16:25

Two Republicans Currently Lead California Governor's Race And Could Lock Out Dems In General Election

Zero Hedge -

Two Republicans Currently Lead California Governor's Race And Could Lock Out Dems In General Election

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Two Republicans currently lead in the California governor’s race according to recent polls, making a Democrat lockout in the November general election a distinct possibility.

Photo: Huntington Beach, CA - April 22: Conservative commentator and Silicon Valley entrepreneur Steve Hilton, greets supporters as he announces his campaign for California governor at the Pier Plaza in Huntington Beach Tuesday, April 22, 2025. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

California’s top-two primary system allows the two highest vote-getters to advance, regardless of party, and Republicans Steve Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco have emerged as the top contenders in the race. Unless one of the Democrat candidates break out, the two Republicans could face each other in the final runoff in November.

Hilton, 56, is a conservative commentator who formerly served as a political advisor in Great Britain. Bianco, 58, is a “law and order” sheriff and coroner of Riverside County.

Polls have consistently showed the two Republicans leading the pack.

The most recent Berkeley IGS Poll, conducted March 9–15, 2026,  showed Hilton leading with 17 percent support among likely voters, followed closely by  Bianco at 16 percent. Among Democrats, the deeply unpopular and controversial Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter were tied at 13 percent, with left-wing billionaire Tom Steyer lagging at 10 percent.

 (Carlin Stiehl / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

A full 16 percent of likely voters were undecided or backing other candidates.

Poll director Mark DiCamillo said that voters are “largely unenthusiastic,” and pointed out that nearly all the Democrat candidates have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings. Porter and Steyer had the highest unfavorable ratings at 37 percent.

California hasn’t elected a Republican to a statewide office since Arnold Schwarzenegger left the governors’ office in 2008. However, voter dissatisfaction with current leadership, high costs of living, and a desire for outsiders in politics are reportedly contributing to the competitive landscape.

With 16 percent of voters still undecided and the possibility of some Democrats dropping out, the race remains fluid ahead of the June primary.

Nevertheless, political commentator Mark Halperin recently opined that the California Democrats are “flailing.”

“The Democrats are in real danger of not getting a candidate in the final two,” Halperin noted on his video platform Two-Way, last week. He added that Democrat strategists have admitted to him privately that their “field is not great.”

“There’s no one people are excited about, no one that people see as breaking away from the pack,” he said. “They’re all weak and they’re all susceptible to opposition research.”

Halperin predicted that the Dem candidates will eventually “start hitting each other,” and it will be “very brutal.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 15:45

Circle Plunges Most Ever On Stablecoin Legislation, As Tether Prepares Full Audit

Zero Hedge -

Circle Plunges Most Ever On Stablecoin Legislation, As Tether Prepares Full Audit

Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, plunged the most on record as investors reacted to potential stablecoin regulation changes that could make the firm’s cryptocurrency less attractive to large holders, as it would be stripped of interest payments. Concerns that a competitor is readying a move into the US market also hurt Circle’s share price.

The stock declined as much as 22%, its steepest intraday drop ever, and leading losses across crypto-linked equities. Coinbase fell as much as 11%, while MARA Holdings, Bullish, Galaxy Digital Holdings and Robinhood Markets also moved lower.

Bitcoin also dropped as much as 2.8% to $68,906.31, breaking below $70,000 after rising above it yesterday. 

Circle’s decline comes as investors grappled with the implications on the economics of stablecoins of proposed US legislation. Draft language of the so-called Clarity Act could prevent exchanges like Coinbase from offering rewards on holdings of stablecoins such as USDC, Circle’s US dollar-pegged token.

While the Clarity Act seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory regime for cryptocurrencies and other forms of tokens, the proposed legislation has faced delays largely due to disagreements between the crypto industry and the banking sector over whether stablecoins can offer rewards similar to interest rates on bank accounts.

The proposed changes to the Clarity Act circulating in Washington could reduce incentives for holders to maintain balances in tokens rather than bank deposits, said analysts.

“We believe it is almost entirely related to the Clarity Act language out today,” John Todaro, an analyst at Needham & Co. said. His firm expects that if the draft language is adopted, it would curtail Coinbase’s program offering certain customers 3.5% rewards on their USDC balances.

Meanwhile, competition among stablecoin issuers is drawing renewed attention. On Tuesday, Tether said it has entered into a formal agreement with a big four accounting firm to complete its first full audit, creating speculation that the El Salvador-based firm could be preparing to move into the US, said Gus Gala, senior equity research analyst at Monness, Crespi.

“That’s what’s hitting the stock more so today,” he said.

Circle shares surged as much as 750% above its initial public offering price last year in anticipation of the US Genius Act stablecoin legislation that passed in July. But the euphoria has since faded as crypto prices have plummeted, competition has increased and the Clarity Act has stalled in Washington. Circle’s shares are now down more than 60% from their peak.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 15:20

Ozempic Slims America... And It's Lightening Truckers' Loads!

Zero Hedge -

Ozempic Slims America... And It's Lightening Truckers' Loads!

Via Freightwaves.com,

The freight market is no stranger to disruptive forces - tariffs, recessions, weather, economic fluctuations, and capacity crunches have all reshaped freight demand over the years.

But a new contender is emerging from an unexpected corner: the widespread adoption of GLP-1 medications (think Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and similar GLP-1 receptor agonists).

These drugs, originally developed for diabetes management and now massively popular for weight loss, suppress appetite and reduce overall caloric intake. Early estimates suggest that even at current penetration levels — roughly 12% of U.S. adults — the downstream effect on food and beverage demand could be substantial.

Recent analyses, drawing from academic studies out of Purdue, Cornell, and others (including 2025 updates), point to an approximate 3% drop in total caloric food demand due to appetite suppression. That may sound modest, but in the context of America’s food supply chain, the numbers scale quickly.

U.S. trucks move more than 2 billion tons of food and beverages annually. At an average payload of around 20 tons per truckload, that’s roughly 100 million+ truckloads per year dedicated to food and bev freight.

Apply a 3% reduction across that volume, and you’re looking at approximately 3 million fewer truckloads annually.

To put that in perspective: the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger — one of the most significant potential rail consolidations in recent memory — is projected by some analysts to divert around 2 million truckloads off the road over time through improved intermodal efficiency and rail capture.

In other words, GLP-1 adoption, at its current (and still growing) level, could already eclipse that rail merger’s expected impact on truckload volumes — and we’re only in the early innings of penetration.

The categories hit hardest align with classic “snack-and-beverage” freight lanes:

  • Processed snacks and beverages: user spending down 7-11% among adopters

  • Alcohol: significant volume reductions

  • Refined grains and similar carb-heavy products

Fresh produce and proteins appear more resilient, with some evidence of slight upticks in mix as consumers prioritize nutrient-dense foods even while eating less overall. Beer, as one slice of the broader beverage decline, fits squarely in the crosshairs.

This isn’t just theoretical. Real-world freight signals are beginning to whisper the trend: softer reefer and dry van demand in certain consumer packaged goods (CPG) segments, anecdotal reports from brokers of lighter loads in snack-heavy lanes, and early category-specific volume softness that doesn’t fully align with broader economic headwinds.

Of course, counterbalancing forces exist. Construction of new pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities (for GLP-1 production itself) is generating significant truckloads today. Food conglomerates may reformulate products to better appeal to GLP-1 users, potentially offsetting some losses. And broader demographic trends — including slower population growth — exert their own downward pressure on total consumption.

But the core math is hard to ignore: a structural reduction in caloric intake at scale translates directly into fewer pallets, fewer loads, and ultimately fewer miles for truckers hauling America’s food supply.

For carriers, brokers, and shippers, this represents both risk and opportunity. The biggest losers may be those heavily exposed to discretionary, high-calorie categories. Winners could include haulers of fresh/perishable goods, health-focused CPG, and — ironically — the specialized logistics supporting the pharmaceutical boom.

The freight market has always been shaped by macroeconomic forces, policy shifts, and technology. Now add public health trends to the list. GLP-1s aren’t just rewriting waistlines, they’re changing freight demand.

*  *  * SPEAKING OF LOADS

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 15:05

Bitcoin's Quantum Risk May Be Real, But the Network Is Preparing: Report

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin's Quantum Risk May Be Real, But the Network Is Preparing: Report

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Galaxy Digital’s latest report says the risk that quantum computing could compromise Bitcoin is real, but so is the work underway to protect the network.

The firm’s research frames the issue as a long-term engineering and governance challenge rather than an imminent crisis, with developers already building tools that could reshape how the network secures trillions in value.

At the center of the concern is a simple premise. Bitcoin relies on cryptographic signatures to prove ownership of coins. Those signatures, based on elliptic curve cryptography, are considered secure against classical computers. 

How Quantum Computing could break Bitcoin

A sufficiently advanced quantum machine could break that assumption, allowing an attacker to derive a private key from a public one and spend funds without authorization.

The scenario has a name within the industry: “Q-day,” the moment a cryptographically relevant quantum computer becomes viable.

The timeline remains uncertain. Estimates range from years to decades, and no consensus exists among experts. The report stresses that uncertainty itself is the problem. Bitcoin’s decentralized structure means upgrades take time, often measured in years, not months.

Still, the risk is uneven. Most Bitcoin is not exposed today. 

Wallets only reveal their public keys when funds are spent, meaning coins sitting untouched behind hashed addresses remain shielded. 

Vulnerability emerges in two main cases: coins whose public keys are already visible onchain, and coins in transit during a transaction.

Which Bitcoin is actually at risk

Galaxy cites estimates suggesting that millions of bitcoin could fall into the first category, including funds tied to early network activity and long-dormant wallets. 

These coins, often associated with early adopters and even the pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, present a unique challenge. If quantum capabilities arrive before protective measures are deployed, such holdings could become prime targets.

The implications extend beyond individual losses. A sudden unlocking of dormant supply could ripple through markets, placing pressure on price and, by extension, on mining incentives that underpin Bitcoin’s security. The report frames this as a systemic risk, not just a technical flaw.

Yet the tone of the research is measured.

Rather than signaling alarm, it points to a growing body of work aimed at preparing the network.

Among the most prominent proposals is a new transaction structure known as Pay-to-Merkle-Root, outlined in Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360. 

The design removes a key exposure point by eliminating always-visible public keys, reducing the attack surface for long-term threats.

Other ideas take a broader approach. One proposal, known as “Hourglass,” attempts to manage the fallout from vulnerable coins by limiting how quickly they can be spent in a worst-case scenario. The goal is not to prevent access, but to slow it, giving markets time to absorb potential shocks.

There is also movement toward new forms of cryptography. Hash-based signature schemes, such as SPHINCS+, have emerged as candidates for a post-quantum future. These systems rely on mathematical assumptions different from those used today and are viewed by some researchers as a more conservative foundation. 

Post-Quantum cryptography brings tradeoffs

The tradeoff is efficiency. Larger signatures could increase transaction sizes and strain network resources.

In parallel, developers are exploring contingency plans. One proposal introduces a commit-and-reveal process that could protect transactions even if a quantum breakthrough occurs before new cryptography is deployed. Another line of research looks at zero-knowledge proofs to allow users to verify ownership of funds without exposing sensitive data.

Taken together, these efforts suggest a layered defense. No single fix solves the problem. Instead, the strategy resembles a toolkit, with protections aimed at different stages of exposure and different levels of urgency.

The harder question may not be technical. Bitcoin has no central authority to mandate changes. Every upgrade requires coordination among developers, miners, exchanges, and users. Past changes, including major upgrades like SegWit and Taproot, took years to activate and often sparked intense debate.

Quantum preparedness could prove even more complex. Some proposals touch on sensitive issues, including whether coins that fail to migrate to safer formats should lose spendability. Such ideas raise philosophical questions about property rights and the social contract embedded in the network.

Even so, the report points to a key difference from past conflicts. Quantum risk is external. It does not divide the community along economic lines or competing visions for Bitcoin’s future. Instead, it presents a shared threat. 

Every participant, from long-term holders to infrastructure providers, has an incentive to maintain the network’s security.

In the end, the report suggests that the outcome will hinge less on whether quantum computers arrive and more on whether a decentralized network can coordinate in time. 

The answer, as with much of Bitcoin’s history, will emerge through slow consensus rather than sudden change.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 14:45

IRGC Navy Turns Back Containership Seeking Hormuz Passage As Iran Starts Charging $2 Million Toll

Zero Hedge -

IRGC Navy Turns Back Containership Seeking Hormuz Passage As Iran Starts Charging $2 Million Toll

Amid reports of increasing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Alireza Tangsiri, a commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, said on X that the containership Selen was turned back by the IRGC Navy for "failing to comply with legal protocols and lacking permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz." Needless to say, that is an upgrade from firing missiles at it.

Tangsiri said passage through the waterway requires full coordination with Iran’s maritime authorities. His comments echo what he said a week ago when he told local media that has not yet closed the Strait of Hormuz and the vital waterway is “only being controlled.”

Tangsiri, who almost certainly is toward the top of the Pentagon's most wanted list, warned a week ago after the Israeli attack on the South Pars gas field that "oil facilities associated with America are now on par with American bases and will come under fire with full force" and "warned citizens and workers to stay away from these facilities."

While the reason why the Selen was turned back is unclear, it probably is because the captain refused to pay the toll Iran has started charging on some commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in yet another sign of Tehran’s control over the world’s most important maritime energy channel.

Payments of as much as $2 million per voyage are being sought on an adhoc basis, effectively creating an informal toll on the waterway, according to Bloomberg. Some vessels have made the payment, though the mechanism wasn’t immediately clear - including the currency used - and it doesn’t appear to be systematic. 

The fact that increasingly more ships are crossing the strait confirms our previous report (see "Chinese Containership Is First To Pay Iran For "Safe Passage" Through Strait As Iraqi Tanker Crosses With Signal Off" and "Iran Ready To Let Japanese Ships Use Hormuz As Chinese, Indian Tankers Already Allowed Passage") indicates that Iran's hardline stance on blockading any/all non-Chinese ships crossing the strait is fraying. 

Stil, the payments show Iran’s influence over Hormuz, through which normally about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, and vast amounts of food, metals and other materials are shipped every day. With the war in the Middle East now in its fourth week, it also highlights the desperate need for some consumers to ensure continued energy flows.

Bloomberg sources said the payments have been handled quietly. The lack of transparency and uncertainty over who might be targeted next is adding a fresh layer of friction to the shipping lane. Only a trickle of vessels have crossed the waterway since the war, many of them Iranian-linked. Some of the few others appear to have taken similar routes close to Iran’s coastline.

According to Lloyds List,. "at least two vessels transiting through the strait are understood to have paid in exchange for safe passage, with one fee reported to have been around $2 million.” As some quickly calculated, this actually is not that much if it means removing the Hormuz energy bottleneck: "$2 million on a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels = $1/barrel premium. Quite a bargain in this market. Expect more to follow suit."

Yesterday we reported that India, which got four vessels carrying liquefied petroleum gas to exit the Persian Gulf through Hormuz, said Tuesday that international laws guarantee the right of freedom for navigation through the strait and no one can levy any fee for use of the channel even though the four ships almost certainly paid the fee. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that he discussed the Iran war on a call with President Donald Trump, including the conflict’s impact on the maritime corridor.

“Ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, secure and accessible is essential for the whole world,” Modi wrote in a social media post.

While Iran is demanding the transit fee on a case-by-case basis, the Islamic Republic has floated the idea of formalizing the charges as part of a broader postwar settlement, one person said. Last week, an Iranian lawmaker said that parliament was advancing a proposal to require nations to pay Iran for using the Strait of Hormuz as a secure shipping route.

For Arab producers in the Gulf, even an informal toll is unacceptable, people familiar said, as it raises the issues of sovereignty, precedent and the potential weaponization of a vital trade route for their energy exports. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates depend on the route to ship their oil to global markets, but are now relying on alternative pipelines bypassing Hormuz to get crude to their customers. 

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 14:25

Celsius, Monster Shares Slide As Costco Unveils 70-Cent Kirkland Energy Drink

Zero Hedge -

Celsius, Monster Shares Slide As Costco Unveils 70-Cent Kirkland Energy Drink

The supplement industry news website Stack3d reports that Costco has expanded its Kirkland Signature brand into energy drinks, a move likely to catch the attention of anyone who consumes these amped-up drinks throughout the day, given the sub-$1-per-can price point. Energy drink stocks are trading lower mid-session on Tuesday, though it is unclear whether this is due to Kirkland's entry into the space.

"Kirkland Signature Sparkling Energy Drink is now showing up in Costco warehouses in a variety pack of 24 cans, with eight cans each of three different flavors: Tropical, Peach, and Orange," Stack3d wrote in a note on Monday afternoon.

Stack3d noted that each of these Kirkland cans includes "some taurine, glucuronolactone, and, of course, caffeine at 200mg, similar to Ghost and Celsius."

A 24-pack of energy drinks retails for $16.99 at Costco. The math works out to about 70 cents per can, a massive savings that will really add up for the daily user who spends roughly $2 to $3, if not more, per can.

Based on current prices, Celsius 12-oz. singles are around $2.49 at Target, Alani Nu 12-oz. singles are about $2.57 at Walmart, and Red Bull 12-oz. cans are approximately $2.99 at Target.

At Walmart, Celsius 12-packs are listed at $17.98, and at Target, they are $18.59, which works out to roughly $1.50 to $1.55 per can. Red Bull Sugarfree 8.4-oz. 12-packs at Walmart are listed at $19.48, or about $1.62 per can. Costco is unmatched, offering its Kirkland energy drink at just 70 cents per can in bulk.

Google Search trends show that searches for Kirkland energy drink began to rise over the weekend. We suspect this trend is early in the cycle and will surge. 

Around noon in New York, Celsius shares are trading down about 6.5%, while Monster shares are down about 1%.

There is no confirmation yet as to whether the pressure on shares is due to the debut of Kirkland energy drinks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 14:05

"Will You Help Me Repair My Door?": Rapper Afroman Wins Major Free Speech Verdict

Zero Hedge -

"Will You Help Me Repair My Door?": Rapper Afroman Wins Major Free Speech Verdict

Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

When singer Joseph E. Foreman took the stand recently in Ohio, his message, like his lyrics, was hardly subtle. Indeed, counsel may have been unsure whether to examine or to hoist him. The rapper, known as “Afroman,” appeared in a suit modeled after an American flag with matching flag-patterned sunglasses. He lashed out at the seven police officers who raided his home and then sued him for publicly mocking them. He insisted that he was the virtual embodiment of the First Amendment in all of its glory.

A jury agreed, at least insofar as finding him protected in his parody and public portrayal of the officers.

Almost three years ago, I wrote about the case and expressed deep skepticism about the legal viability of the case in light of free speech protections for filming and criticizing public officials.

Foreman, 51, became famous for a humorous rap song, “Because I Got High.” Later, he became even more famous after the released security camera footage of officers breaking down the door to his home and holding him and his family at bay with drawn weapons.  While the warrant was granted to look for evidence of kidnapping, marijuana, and drug paraphernalia, they found nothing.

Foreman then decided to go on the offensive with videos showing the raid and rap songs using his signature style to mock the officers (including one who seemed to stop in the midst of the raid to look at a fresh lemon pound cake on the counter. He told NPR, “I asked myself, as a powerless Black man in America, what can I do to the cops that kicked my door in, tried to kill me in front of my kids, stole my money, and disconnected my cameras? And the only thing I could come up with was make a funny rap song about them … use the money to pay for the damages they did and move on.”

In “Will You Help Me Repair My Door?” he taunted the officers: “Did you find what you were looking for?/Will you help me repair my gate and door/Would you like a slice of my lemon pound cake?/You can take as much as you want to take/There must be a big mistake.”

The humor highlighted what he viewed as an absurdly broad warrant: “The warrant said ‘Narcotics and kidnapping’/The warrant said “Narcotics and kidnapping”/Are you kidding? I make my money, rapping/Why does the warrant say ‘Narcotics?’ (Well, I know narcotics)/But why kidnapping?”

That was followed up by an even more popular video titled “Lemon Pound Cake”: “The Adams County Sheriff kicked down my door/Then I heard the glass break/They found no kidnapping victims/Just some lemon pound cake…Mama’s lemon pound cake/It tastes so nice/It made the sheriff wanna put down his gun/And cut him a slice (of what? Of what?).”

It became an instant hit.

Some of the images from Foreman’s security cameras were also used to sell commercial products, including promotional videos.  In an Instagram post, he wore a shirt with the surveillance images and thanked one of the officers for helping him get 5.4 million views on TikTok.

In a social media posting, he wrote, “Congratulations again you’re famous for all the wrong reasons.”

The six officers and one detective were obviously irate at the public abuse and ridicule that followed. In their complaint, they alleged that their families were traumatized and harmed.

The mockery continued during the trial.

Foreman’s appearance in his flag suit captured his style and his strategy. He was there to make an unmistakable point and the flag outfit was part of the effort to attract maximal attention.

While controversial for some, his fashion choice followed other famous free speech advocates.  Hustler Magazine publisher Larry Flint in 1983 wore a flag diaper to court. (He was then charged with desecrating the flag– a charge later dropped by prosecutors).

Likewise, in 1968, activist Abbie Hoffman wore a shirt resembling an American flag to a House Un-American Activities Committee (HUAC) hearing, protesting the Vietnam War. When he was arrested, he declared, “I regret that I have but one shirt to give for my country.” (His conviction was later overturned).

Foreman attacked Adams County Deputy Sheriff Lisa Phillips in an expletive-laden music clip posted on Instagram just hours after she gave tearful testimony in court: “Where was these tears when she was standing in my yard with a loaded AR-15 ready to Swiss cheese me?”

Foreman was equally unapologetic on the stand: “All of this is their fault, If they hadn’t wrongly raided my house, there would be no lawsuit, I would not know their names, they wouldn’t be on my home surveillance system and there would be no songs.”

My skepticism about the lawsuit stemmed from the obvious opinion and political content of his posting. Courts have also ruled that citizens may film officers in public despite repeated efforts to criminalize such filming.

The claims of defamation, misappropriation of names or likeness, and false light all ran into the same First Amendment protections.

Foreman is an artist expressing his criticism of the police in the raid on his home. Foreman had a right to object to the raid that he viewed as unjustified and even racially motivated.

Foreman clearly used his celebrity status to exact a measure of revenge. However, any liability for showing officers during a raid would have had a chilling effect on political speech, including when such speech is part of creative work.

Since the founding of the Republic, parody and songs have been used to criticize government officials and policies.

Foreman celebrated after the verdict, proclaiming, “It’s not only for artists. It’s for Americans. “We have freedom of speech. They … did me wrong and sued me because I was talking about it.”

Yes, Foreman is over-the-top in every respect. Yet, there was a method to the madness. Strip away the flag suit, the over-the-top lyrics, he had a point. Add the suit and the rap, he had an audience.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

*  *  * ARE YOU PREPARED?

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 13:45

Terrible 2Y Auction: Biggest Tail In 3 Years, Dealers Highest Since 2022

Zero Hedge -

Terrible 2Y Auction: Biggest Tail In 3 Years, Dealers Highest Since 2022

With both foreign and domestic investors dumping gold (and anything else not nailed down) to fund oil, at its brand sparkling new price of $170 (in Asia), we were wondering how long before the lack of disposable cash hits US debt. We got the answer today at just after 1pm when we got the results of today's $69 billion 2Year bond auction. In a nutshell, it was terrible.

The auction priced at a high yield of 3.936%, up from 3.455% last month and the highest since May 2025. It also tailed the When Issued by a whopping 1.8bps, the highest tail since March 2023.

The bid to cover was a piss poor 2.440, down sharply from 2.630 and the lowest since May 2024. 

The internals were also ugly, with Indirects taking 59.98%, an improvement from 55.91% in February, but it was the Direct bidders that unexpectedly tumbled from 42.3% to 16.50%, the lowest since March 2025. This left Dealers holding 24.12% of the auction, up sharply from 9.81% and the highest since October 2022. 

Overall, this was a very ugly auction, and the only thing that could have made it catastrophic was if Indirects had also refused to participate. For now they haven't but at this rate it's just a matter of time before Indirects go limit down and Dealers are forced to carry the entire auction. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 13:25

Mark Zuckerberg Is Building An AI Version Of A CEO To Help Him Run Meta

Zero Hedge -

Mark Zuckerberg Is Building An AI Version Of A CEO To Help Him Run Meta

This isn't going to help the speculation that Zuckerberg, himself is a robot. I mean, it's only a joke...right?

Mark Zuckerberg is pushing a future where everyone—inside and outside Meta Platforms—has a personal AI agent. He’s beginning with his own, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal.

The CEO is building an internal “CEO agent,” still in development, that helps him quickly access information he’d normally get through layers of staff. The goal reflects a broader company shift: speed up work, reduce hierarchy, and compete with lean, AI-first startups.

AI adoption has become central to Meta’s strategy. Zuckerberg recently emphasized this direction, saying, “We’re investing in AI-native tooling so individuals at Meta can get more done,” adding that the company is “elevating individual contributors and flattening teams.” Employees are now expected to use AI regularly, and it even factors into performance reviews.

Across the company, staff are experimenting heavily. Internal forums are full of AI tools and ideas, with some employees describing the environment as similar to Meta’s early “move fast and break things” era—now updated to a more stable, AI-driven version of rapid innovation.

New tools are emerging internally. Personal agents can access files, communicate with coworkers—or even other agents—on a user’s behalf. Another tool, Second Brain, acts like an “AI chief of staff,” helping organize and retrieve project information. There are even spaces where employees’ AI agents interact with each other.

WSJ writes that Meta is also investing externally, acquiring startups like Moltbook and Manus to expand its capabilities.

To support this shift, Meta created a new applied AI engineering group designed to be “AI native from day one,” focused on accelerating development of its AI models. Employees are encouraged to attend frequent AI trainings, hackathons, and build their own tools.

Still, the rapid transformation brings mixed feelings. While some employees find it energizing, others worry about job security—especially after major layoffs in 2022 and 2023 as the company restructured for efficiency.

Meta’s leadership sees this transition as essential. As CFO Susan Li put it, staying competitive means ensuring a company of Meta’s scale can operate just as efficiently as smaller, AI-native firms.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 13:25

Protesters Rally Outside OpenAI, Anthropic, And xAI Offices Over Industry Concerns

Zero Hedge -

Protesters Rally Outside OpenAI, Anthropic, And xAI Offices Over Industry Concerns

Authored by Jason Nelson via decrypt.co,

In brief

  • 200 protesters marched from Anthropic to OpenAI and xAI offices in San Francisco.

  • Activists called on AI companies to pause development of new frontier AI models.

  • Organizer Michael Trazzi previously staged a multi-week hunger strike outside Google DeepMind.

Protesters took to the streets of San Francisco on Saturday, stopping outside the offices of Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI to call for a conditional pause in the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence.

According to Stop the AI Race founder and documentarian Michael Trazzi, roughly 200 protesters participated in the demonstration.

Participants included researchers, academics, and members of advocacy groups such as the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, PauseAI, QuitGPT, StopAI, and Evitable.

“There are a lot of people who care about this risk from advanced AI systems,” Trazzi told Decrypt. “Having everyone marching together shows people are not isolated in thinking about this by themselves. There are a lot of people who care about this.”

The march began at noon outside Anthropic’s offices, then moved to OpenAI and then to xAI. At each stop, activists and speakers from the participating organizations addressed protesters.

According to Trazzi, the protest aimed to push AI companies to agree to a coordinated pause in building more powerful AI models and create treaties with AI developers in other countries to do the same.

“If China and the U.S. agreed to stop building more dangerous models, they could focus on making the systems better for us, like medical AI,” he said. “Everyone would be better off.”

Stop the AI Race’s proposal calls for companies to stop building new frontier models and shift work toward safety, if other major labs "credibly do the same," which Trazzi said makes protesting in front of AI labs’ offices more important.

Steady opposition

The protest is the latest in a series of efforts to disrupt AI development.

In March 2023, the Future of Life Institute published an open letter demanding a moratorium on further enhancements to the leading AI tool following the public launch of ChatGPT the year before.

Signers included xAI founder Elon Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, and Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen. Since then, the “Pause Giant AI Experiments” open letter has garnered over 33,000 signatures.

In September, Trazzi staged a week-long hunger strike outside Google DeepMind’s London offices, while Guido Reichstadter held a parallel hunger strike outside Anthropic’s San Francisco offices.

Government officials and supporters of continued AI development argue that slowing research in the U.S. could give competitors abroad an advantage.

Last week, the Trump Administration published its AI framework to establish a national standard for laws governing AI development. The White House framed it as a commitment to “winning the AI race.”

“Even if you’re in China or any country in the world, nobody wants systems they cannot control,” Trazzi said. “Because we’re in this race between companies and countries to build the systems as fast as possible, we’re taking shortcuts and cutting corners on safety. There is a race that has no winners. What we have is a system we cannot control, and that’s why it’s called a suicide race.”

But even if AI developers agreed to pause development, verifying it may be easier said than done. Trazzi suggested one way to verify a pause would be to limit the computing power used to train new models.

“If you limit how much compute a company can use to build these systems, then you’re pretty much limiting developing new models,” he said.

Following the San Francisco protest, Trazzi said additional demonstrations could take place in other locations where major AI companies operate.

“We want to show up where the employees are,” he said. “We want to talk to them, and we want them to talk to their leadership and have things moving from inside,” adding that whistleblowers will have some amount of power because “they’re the ones building it.”

OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI did not immediately respond to Decrypt's requests for comment.

* * *ACT FAST!

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 13:05

Nvidia CEO: "I Think We've Achieved AGI"

Zero Hedge -

Nvidia CEO: "I Think We've Achieved AGI"

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined podcaster Lex Fridman for a 2-plus-hour conversation on the future of AI infrastructure, covering everything from chips, racks, and cooling systems to Nvidia's broader strategy for the next computing era.

Jensen spoke about how computers are evolving from retrieval machines into generative AI factories. The discussion also turned to one of the biggest questions in the AI cycle: whether AGI has already arrived.

Near the two-hour mark of the conversation, Fridman asked Jensen about the "AGI timeline" and whether it is still five, ten, fifteen, or twenty years away, especially given the recent widespread use of agentic AI tools like OpenClaw.

Jensen responded, "I think it's now. I think we've achieved AGI."

It is worth noting that Jensen has previously stated that the AGI timeline depends on how it is defined.

At the 2023 New York Times DealBook Summit, Jensen defined AGI as software capable of exceeding normal human intelligence at a reasonably competitive level. At the time, he said he expected AGI to arrive within five years.

Fridman's question about the AGI timeline was based on a very narrower interpretation, and Jensen framed it this way: AI does not need to build anything lasting. It does not need to manage a complex business. It just needs to make a billion dollars.

"You said a billion," Jensen told Fridman, "and you didn't say forever."

Jensen said, for example, that all AI needs to do is create a web service or app that goes viral and is used by a few billion people at fifty cents per user.

He pointed to the dot-com era, when some websites were no more sophisticated than what an AI agent can create today.

So under that narrower interpretation, Jensen believes: "I think we've achieved AGI."

*  *  * ARE YOU PREPARED?

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 12:30

NASA Head Adds Lunar Base, Nuclear-Powered Mars Rocket To Space Road Map

Zero Hedge -

NASA Head Adds Lunar Base, Nuclear-Powered Mars Rocket To Space Road Map

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman is moving ahead with the agency's ambitious push to return astronauts to the moon, unveiling new plans for a lunar base alongside a nuclear-propelled spacecraft intended to pave the way for a future Mars mission.

At an earlier event, The New York Times reported that Isaacman laid out the agency's three-phase plan: first, expand robotic missions and surface systems; second, build semi-habitable infrastructure for regular astronaut visits; and third, construct permanent infrastructure for a sustained human presence on the moon.

"We are calling today's event Ignition because it represents the start of a transformative journey for NASA," Isaacman told an audience of representatives from aerospace companies, international space agency officials, and Congress.

Isaacman's top objective is to return astronauts to the moon in a series of missions called Artemis by 2028. At the same time, he outlined plans to launch a nuclear-propelled spacecraft to Mars by the end of 2028.

He said NASA will deploy $20 billion over seven years to ensure America leads the Moon and Mars missions.

"The moon base will not appear overnight," Isaacman said. "We will invest approximately $20 billion over the next seven years and build it through dozens of missions."

The announcement comes just ahead of Artemis II, the mission expected to send astronauts around the moon and back for the first time since 1972.

Isaacman also said Artemis missions would accelerate to twice a year after Artemis V in 2028, and NASA is seeking replacements for Boeing's Space Launch System, or SLS, rocket and Orion capsule. We reported this last week. 

He added that work on the planned Gateway lunar station program has been suspended.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 12:15

China Condemns US Starting 'Vicious Cycle' Of 'Chaos' In Attacking Iran

Zero Hedge -

China Condemns US Starting 'Vicious Cycle' Of 'Chaos' In Attacking Iran

Chinese Special Envoy to the Middle East Zhai Jun has said at a briefing after his ​shuttle-diplomacy trip that included recent stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait that the US-Israeli operation against Iran must immediately cease or else a "vicious cycle" toward destabilizing the region and disrupt global trade would persist.

"Should hostilities continue to escalate and the situation deteriorate further, the entire region will be plunged into chaos. The use of force will only lead to a vicious cycle… the war should not have begun in the first place," Zhai declared.

via AFP

Washington's latest war of choice in the Middle East has been focus of growing condemnation from Beijing, with Zhai having added: "The one who tied the bell must be the one to untie it." Or this is another way of saying whatever the US broke it must quickly fix.

Separately, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated at the start of this week that continued military action risks deepening instability, and reminded Washington that its past wars in the same region "are not far behind us."

It was only days ago that President Trump called on China and Japan to assist in getting the Hormuz Strait back open, but something which especially China has little incentive to do, as its instead content to watch the US get bogged down in a quagmire amid Tehran's unexpected resilience under the bombs.

Iran has meanwhile held a phone call with China's foreign minister, per Bloomberg: "Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday called on all parties in the Iran war to seize every opportunity and window for peace and start peace talks as soon as possible, Xinhua reports. Wang made the appeal in a phone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi."

China has long been a powerful ally of Tehran providing with diplomatic cover, institutional support, military cooperation and an economic lifeline - especially as its major oil buyer; however, China is not expected to go further with any kind of direct military support.

There are claims that it could be, alongside Russia, providing some intelligence support though. If this is the case, there is not much Washington can do about it - also as the White House response to widespread reports of Russian intelligence-sharing has been met with some pretty mild and meager statements out of the White House.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 11:35

It's Not 'Racism', It's Statistics...

Zero Hedge -

It's Not 'Racism', It's Statistics...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A viral video has revealed that CVS is locking up darker makeup shades behind security devices while lighter ones sit open — because stores secure what thieves steal most, and the data backs it up.

A shopper at CVS captured the scene with lighter skin-tone foundations and concealers displayed freely, no locks and no tags, yet the darker shades were all secured behind anti-theft devices.

This isn’t “racism.” It’s basic loss prevention. Retailers don’t waste money locking up products that don’t walk out the door. They follow the numbers.

The wider retail theft crisis makes it crystal clear why. The National Retail Federation’s 2025 Impact of Retail Theft and Violence report shows shoplifting incidents jumped another 19 percent from 2023 to 2024 — on top of a staggering 93 percent surge since 2019.

Retailers reported double-digit increases in both shoplifting and merchandise theft heading into 2026, with aggressive thieves becoming the norm. Losses are projected near $48 billion this year alone.

Stores aren’t profiling customers. They’re protecting their shelves from repeat patterns of theft. And those patterns line up with hard crime statistics.

Nationwide arrest data from 2019 — the most comprehensive recent breakdown available — reveals Black Americans accounted for 26.6 percent of shoplifting arrests while making up just 13 percent of the U.S. population.

In major cities the disparity is even sharper. Vera Institute analysis of Los Angeles jail bookings from 2020-2023 found Black individuals dramatically overrepresented in retail theft charges, including organized retail crime. California statewide data shows the same overrepresentation in shoplifting arrests under $950.

The Vera Institute’s data confirms overrepresentation but frames it through a disparity lens, citing national self-report studies suggesting higher lifetime shoplifting prevalence among Whites. However, arrest/booking data itself is concrete evidence of who gets processed. Black individuals are dramatically overrepresented in retail theft bookings in LA and statewide, especially for organized retail theft charges and shoplifting under $950. This is raw booking stats, not adjusted for self-reported behavior or policing bias claims.

The left screams “systemic racism” whenever stores act on reality. But the stores don’t care about skin color — they care about what disappears. Darker shades get locked because the theft data demands it. Just like liquor, electronics, and designer goods.

X users cut straight through the noise and called it exactly what it is:

Exactly. This is what happens when businesses refuse to play the woke game and simply follow the stats. The same common-sense approach that kept shelves stocked before progressive DAs turned shoplifting into a hobby.

When theft has real consequences again, retailers won’t need to lock half the makeup aisle — because the thieves will be off the streets.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 11:15

Russia Halts Ammonium Nitrate Exports As Global Fertilizer Crisis Set To Worsen

Zero Hedge -

Russia Halts Ammonium Nitrate Exports As Global Fertilizer Crisis Set To Worsen

The fertilizer crisis appears to be worsening just as the Northern Hemisphere planting season, in some areas, is about to begin, with top ammonium nitrate supplier Russia announcing on Tuesday via state media that exports of the critical crop nutrient will be halted. 

Russia's state-run news agency TASS said Russia will suspend ammonium nitrate exports from March 21 through April 21. The report cited a statement from the Agriculture Ministry.

The temporary restriction is intended to secure domestic fertilizer supplies during the spring planting season. Exports made under intergovernmental agreements are exempt.

Russia is the world's largest producer of ammonium nitrate. In 2024, the country produced about 12 million tons, roughly 47% of the global output of the plant nutrient. It was also the largest exporter at about 2.7 million tons, around 37% of global export volume and 40% of export value.

Data based on IndexBox’s ammonium nitrate world market overview

Export disruptions of the critical crop nutrient can hit import-dependent buyers hard, especially in markets such as Brazil, Canada, India, Peru, and Ukraine.

Data based on IndexBox’s ammonium nitrate world market overview

Russia's temporary export comes at the worst possible timing as the Northern Hemisphere planting season begins in some regions. 

The risk now is that, as the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, a global energy shock is also spreading to fertlizer markets and may only suggest a delayed food price shock later this year. 

"The speed of the move [energy shock] pushed volatility sharply higher, with energy once again becoming the primary transmission channel for geopolitical risk into broader macro pricing," UBS analyst Claudio Martucci warned clients earlier this month. 

Claudio pointed out, "Agricultural markets reacted more indirectly to the energy shock via higher fertilizer costs, and higher input and biofuel costs lifted soybean oil to two-year highs, while wheat experienced elevated volatility and some profit-taking late in the week despite an otherwise supportive commodity backdrop."

Last week, former central banker advisor Alexandra Prokopenko warned on X that the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an energy shock that risks morphing into a "slower, more consequential story": fertilizers.

"A near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a supply shock that will show up in food prices 6–9 months from now," Prokopenko wrote on X, adding, "Putin's gains here may be more long-term than simply lining his pockets with petrodollars."

Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White recently warned, "But food prices are likely to be as troublesome for second-round inflationary effects. Less well known is that the shock to food prices was worse than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, following the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution. Food inflation in the US was already rising before both shocks, and contributed more to headline CPI than energy through almost all of the 70s."

Prokopenko pointed out, "Consequences already material. Urea up 25-30% since Feb. 28. Gulf producers have declared force majeure on contracts to South America and Asia. ~1 million metric tons of fertilizer physically stranded in the Gulf. Force majeure means contracts are legally severed, not delayed. Buyers must find alternatives now."

The shock in energy markets has already driven crude prices into triple digits and sent gasoline and diesel prices surging worldwide. In countries heavily dependent on Gulf imports, shortages have already developed... 

And fertilizer disruption could be the next wave. It may not hit all at once, but the effects could show up later this year as lower crop yields, tighter food supplies, and higher prices.

So the real-world hedge right now, ahead of the growing season in the Lower 48, is to start small with a backyard garden. Then build a chicken coop (we advise buying one) and use this global energy shock as an excuse to control your own food supply. 

* * * 

We offer a "Seed Vault" of 39 different varieties of hand-selected non-hybrid, non-GMO, open-pollinated heirloom vegetable seeds. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 10:55

Republican California Sheriff Seizes Ballots In Election Probe

Zero Hedge -

Republican California Sheriff Seizes Ballots In Election Probe

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is running to be the next California governor, has seized more than half a million ballots from a November 2025 special election on redistricting, triggering a political and legal confrontation with state officials.

Sheriff Chad Bianco of Riverside County speaks during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on May 15, 2024. Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

Bianco obtained the ballots with a court-approved warrant in February as part of what he described as an investigation into an alleged discrepancy between ballot logs and official vote totals.

The dispute centers on Riverside County, an inland region east of Los Angeles with roughly 2.5 million residents, where Bianco has twice been elected sheriff.

“Investigations into irregularities must happen so that the public can have full confidence,” he said in a March 22 post on X.

Bianco announced the investigation at a press conference on March 20, saying it stemmed from a complaint by a local citizens group that reviewed public records from the county Registrar of Voters.

Bianco alleged that handwritten intake logs showed 611,428 ballots were received, while 657,322 votes were reported to the state—a gap of roughly 45,896 votes. He rejected the registrar’s explanation that official machine counts showed only a minor deviation attributable to human error.

Calling the probe a “fact-finding mission,” Bianco said investigators plan to physically count ballots and compare the total with certified results.

Clash With Attorney General

County election officials and California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, dispute Bianco’s claims and authority to conduct the probe.

Bonta has characterized the seizure as unprecedented. In letters sent to the sheriff’s office over the past two months, he wrote that the action was “unacceptable” and that it “sets a dangerous precedent and will only sow distrust in our elections.”

Bianco said Bonta sought to halt the probe, arguing that law enforcement officers are not authorized or trained to conduct election recounts. He noted that representatives of the attorney general had asked him to pause the investigation until after March 6 without providing a valid reason.

A judge later ordered that counting resume under the supervision of a special master appointed by the court, Bianco said.

He also suggested urgency because ballots from the 2025 election could be destroyed in May 2026 under state retention rules, although election officials did not comment publicly on that timeline.

Bianco cited a University of California–San Diego study that found that about 40 percent of Californians distrust election systems, calling the figure alarming.

“What does sow mistrust in our system is failing to conduct an investigation—or worse, attempting to stop or interfere with a lawful investigation, to sweep it under the rug so evidence can possibly be destroyed,” he told the press conference.

Bianco is one of two prominent Republicans seeking California’s governorship in a crowded June primary that includes numerous Democrats.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

*  *  * Spring is here, got seeds?

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 10:20

US PMIs Signal Stagflation Fears Accelerating As War Started

Zero Hedge -

US PMIs Signal Stagflation Fears Accelerating As War Started

With 'hard' US macro data having drifted weaker all year, consensus was expecting only a modest decline in S&P Global's US Composite index in preliminary March data (that presumably will be affected in some part by the war and its consequences).

The consensus was right, but the picture was mixed with Manufacturing PMI surprising to the upside (52.4 vs 51.5 exp vs 51.6 prior) - highest since Oct 2025.

Services PMI, on the other hand, disappointed, falling to the lowest since April 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, that combination dragged the Composite PMI to 51.4 - the lowest in 11 months - indicative of GDP rising at an annualized rate of just 1.0%, with a modest 1.3% expansion signalled for the first quarter as a whole.

The survey’s price gauges meanwhile point to consumer price inflation accelerating back to around 4%.

"The flash PMI survey data for March signal an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East," warns Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Companies are reporting a hit to demand from the additional uncertainty and cost of living impact generated by the conflict. Travel, transport and tourism related issues are compounded by financial market jitters and affordability constraints, notably including concern over the impact of higher interest rates, surging energy prices and supply chain delays.

“Companies are meanwhile building safety stocks amid concerns that the war may lead to more protracted supply issues and price rises while trimming headcounts to reduce overheads."

Today's PMI print appears to confirm the overall theme of the last couple of months... 'higher' inflation and stagnant (or falling) growth...

Source: Bloomberg

...in other words, central bankers' biggest nemesis: Stagflation.

As Williamson concludes, “The Fed will therefore need juggle these intensifying upside risks to inflation against the growing risk of the economy losing growth momentum, with much depending on the duration of the war and its impact on energy prices and global supply chains.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/24/2026 - 09:55

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