Individual Economists

Germany's Geopolitical Freefall: Beijing Shows Berlin The Red Card

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Geopolitical Freefall: Beijing Shows Berlin The Red Card

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Germany’s dramatic economic collapse is dragging its geopolitical standing down with it. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has now learned what it means to be treated as a second-tier diplomat, receiving the red card from Beijing. A humiliation and a reprimand for Germany.

Johann Wadephul, Photo Bloomberg

The school of life can be cruel. Growing up usually means losing lofty ideals, fringe ideologies and the dreamy mindset of an inexperienced existence to the harsh reality of the world. Reality follows its own rules, unimpressed by self-delusion.

That moment of maturity, the exit from the bubble of hermetically sealed party ideology, has now arrived for Germany’s top diplomat.

A Minister of Fantasies

Johann Wadephul, who only recently wandered through wonderland attributing the German economic miracle to Turkish immigrants, had to cancel his first official visit to China at the last minute because Beijing saw no need to speak with a German delegation.

The Christian Democrat is learning, much like his BlackRock-seasoned party colleague Friedrich Merz, that Germany’s dramatic economic decline is being followed instantly by a loss of geopolitical relevance.

Wadephul’s first China trip was intended as a reset in the strained diplomatic relationship with Beijing. A high-profile business delegation was set to accompany him and help ease tensions over critical rare earth supplies.

China has been threatening a complete export ban for weeks, a measure that would instantly paralyze key German industries.

Suddenly Business Matters

The delegation was to include representatives from the German automotive industry, Siemens Healthineers, the German Robotics Association and a leading importer of rare earth elements. Together, they were meant to relieve pressure in Beijing and secure access to the essential resources that Germany’s industrial base cannot function without.

When Beijing made clear that it would not entertain additional talks beyond the mandatory meeting of foreign ministers, Wadephul was forced to cancel the trip late Friday. A last-ditch attempt to save face and limit the political damage.

Perhaps Wadephul should have copied his predecessor Annalena Baerbock and focused on moral-philosophical escapism such as feminist foreign policy. It is harmless, fits the German zeitgeist and would have earned him brownie points among left-leaning coalition partners.

The Giant’s Achilles Heel

Right now Europe would desperately need a delegation that positions itself smartly in the slipstream of the Americans.

Every giant has a weakness. China’s economy is caught in a self-reinforcing deflationary spiral triggered by draconian US tariffs and a long-festering property crisis caused by massive state-driven capital misallocation.

Deflation is fatal because China’s growth relies on the fiat-credit machine. Rising insolvencies mean shrinking loan books. The credit turbo sputters, collateral values collapse through fire sales and oversupply, especially in real estate. Then the state must intervene again, inject more government credit and weaken its currency further.

It is a vicious cycle gripping nearly every modern economy.

China’s answer has always been the same: a colossal export-subsidy engine, a mercantilist model built at the expense of trade partners who lost production capacity to China.

Beijing’s trade surplus accounts for roughly 1 percent of global GDP. Roughly 1 trillion US dollars, fueled by massive export aid.

On top of that come geopolitical Trojan horses like the Belt and Road Initiative, opening markets wherever China needs raw materials.

China Is Desperate for Replacement Markets

Europe’s internal market has become essential for Beijing to dump excess production. The US market is increasingly blocked since Donald Trump’s tariff offensive: Chinese exports to the United States have crashed by a staggering 27 percent.

At the same time, Chinese exports to Germany rose 10.7 percent in the first half of the year.

To prevent a labor-market meltdown at home, Beijing is flooding alternative markets with overcapacity. The Communist Party is facing a youth unemployment rate likely around 20 percent. The social explosive lies right there.

This is precisely where Europe — especially Berlin — could apply leverage. In the escalating struggle for rare earth access, crucial for German industry and especially automakers, Europe could build real bargaining power by teaming up with the United States.

Irresponsible and Stubborn

It is irresponsible, considering China’s 90 percent dominance in rare-earth refining, not to side with Washington and secure strategic advantages for Europe’s own industrial survival.

Ideologically rigid, strategically naive and severely weakened by its trade debacles with the US, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is stumbling from one pseudo-summit to the next like a dethroned Brussels queen.

One gets the impression that the entire climate circus, the theatrical solidarity on Ukraine and the delusional green posture have become a psychological overcompensation for the visible failure of the Brussels project.

Time to Seek Alliance with the United States

Europe should have embraced geopolitical division of labor with Washington from the start. Especially now that the US, under a hyperactive foreign-policy president, is openly claiming leadership. Trump is right to point at EU protectionism, ubiquitous climate regulation and a policy increasingly hostile to markets.

Washington is on the offensive: deregulation, tax cuts, junking the quasi-religious climate cult. It’s working: the US economy is growing 3.8 percent, new debt fell from 6.7 to 5.8 percent. Trump is recalibrating the system while Europe tumbles in the opposite direction: higher debt, deeper recession.

Wadephul and his fellow European diplomats must finally accept this reality and drop their escalating crusade over censorship laws, scrap the Digital Services Act, the Digital Markets Act and the online-surveillance regime entirely. Instead, they should seek fair trade with the US without hidden climate protectionism.

Europe is resource-poor and energy-dependent, importing up to 60 percent of its energy. Without Russian energy and raw materials, Europe’s prosperity model collapses.

And the attack on a Eurasian rapprochement between continental Europe and resource-rich Russia did not come from Washington, despite media mantras to the contrary. It came straight from the heart of the European Union.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/27/2025 - 02:00

The Great Nicobar Island Project Is The New Lynchpin Of India's Act East Policy

Zero Hedge -

The Great Nicobar Island Project Is The New Lynchpin Of India's Act East Policy

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Lots of attention was drawn to the Great Nicobar Island Project (GNIP) last month, which aims to develop this namesake island in India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands union territory, after Indian National Congress leader Sonia Gandhi published an op-ed at The Hindu lambasting it. Her criticisms mostly center on its potential environmental consequences while ignoring its geostrategic significance, thus prompting the ruling BJP spokesman to rhetorically ask on whose behalf she’s lobbying against it.

For background, India has been practicing what it calls the Act East Policy for over a decade after Prime Minister Narendra Modi rebranded the Look East Policy in 2014 to emphasize his proactive intentions, which aim to comprehensively strengthen ties between his civilization-state and ASEAN. The Trilateral Highway with Myanmar and Thailand was supposed to be this policy’s flagship project but has run into trouble due to the latest phase of Myanmar’s civil war.

The GNIP is now envisaged as the new flagship.

As Savitri Mumukshu wrote on X, “By developing Great Nicobar into a deep-sea port, airport, and military hub, India gains a vital strategic foothold just 160 km from the Malacca Strait, a vital chokepoint through which 80% of China’s oil imports and 40% of global trade pass. This allows India to monitor maritime traffic, project power across the eastern Indian Ocean, and quickly use naval and air assets”.

Some words will now be said about this insight in light of the nascent Sino-Indo rapprochement.

Mutually friendly rhetoric from the past few weeks aside, China and India are still veritably competitors with one another, if not still rivals. All that’s recently changed is that there now appears to be a renewed interest in responsibly managing border tensions with a view towards gradually growing bilateral trade. This is a significant achievement given the bad blood between them since summer 2020’s lethal clashes over the Galwan River Valley but neither is naively imagining that the other is now a trusted partner.

India practices what can be described as a Hyper-Realist foreign policy in the sense that its Minister of External Affairs explicitly details his country’s interests and openly seeks to advance them. This contrasts with most countries’ top diplomats, who usually only hint at what their interests are and then quietly pursue them. There’s no ambiguity when it comes to Indian foreign policy. The GNIP can therefore be interpreted as a means of counterbalancing what it considers to be China’s regional hegemonic policies.

It’s unimportant whether observers share India’s assessment of China’s regional approach since all that matters is that the GNIP is meant to become the new lynchpin of its Act East Policy. It’s outwardly driven by economic imperatives but crucially includes unstated military-strategic goals with respect to entrenching India’s envisaged role as the guardian of its eponymous ocean. These aren’t objectively threatening to China but are intended to counterbalance and deter it in case tensions one day return.

With all this insight in mind, while some critics of the GNIP might truly mean well, their advocacy against it inadvertently harms India’s grand strategic interests. The global systemic transition to multipolarity is such that Great Powers like India are independently advancing their interests vis-à-vis their peers like China. This isn’t a sign of unipolarity’s impending return like some members of the Alt-Media Community might fear but a natural development that stabilizes the emerging balance of power.

 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/26/2025 - 23:25

mRNA Vaccine For Birth Defects Didn't Work Well, Won't Be Continued: Moderna

Zero Hedge -

mRNA Vaccine For Birth Defects Didn't Work Well, Won't Be Continued: Moderna

Moderna - which has been around less than 10 years and 'somehow' convinced the government to mandate their mRNA jabs for hundreds of millions of Americans to participate in normal life during the pandemic - announced this week that its vaccine for birth defects did not perform well in a clinical trial, so they're scrapping it. 

A sign marks the headquarters of vaccine maker Moderna in Cambridge, Mass., on April 28, 2022. Brian Snyder/Reuters

The company's mRNA vaccine for cytomegalovirus (CMV) did not meet the primary efficacy endpoint in preventing CMV infection in healthy females of childbearing age (16-40) in a phase 3 randomized trial involving around 7,500 women. 

Pregnant mothers can pass CMV to their babies - with about 1 in every 200 born with CMV and around 20% of babies who contract it suffering from birth defects or long term health problems, including hearing loss. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, Moderna’s CMV vaccine utilizes messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) technology, just like its only approved shots, which target COVID-19.

Moderna executives said in January that the trial for the CMV vaccine, mRNA-1647, needed to keep going because interim results did not show enough efficacy, but expressed optimism that the shot would ultimately be successful, noting it could be the first such vaccine on the market because no others exist as of yet.

The efficacy of the shot turned out to be between 6 percent and 23 percent, depending on the case definition.

“We are clearly disappointed by the failure to prevent primary infection because it means there is still no vaccine for the prevention of congenital CMV despite the many decades of work by the field,” Dr. Stephen Hoge, Moderna’s president, said in a statement.

The company has decided to discontinue its CMV program.

Moderna said that the vaccine was “generally well-tolerated ... with a safety profile consistent with earlier studies.” It will continue studying mRNA-1647 in bone marrow transplant patients.

“CMV does cause significant disease in other contexts, including reactivation of the latent virus in those undergoing bone marrow transplantation, and we will continue to explore the potential of mRNA-1647 to suppress disease associated with reactivation in those high-risk patients through our ongoing Phase 2 study,” Hoge said.

That study started in 2023 and is scheduled to be completed in 2026. About 224 people were set to receive the vaccine or placebo after ceasing prophylactic treatment for CMV, including the drug letermovir.

Moderna said its 2025 financial outbreak is not expected to be impacted by the trial failure.

“Moderna anticipated minimal initial revenue contribution from mRNA-1647 given necessary investments in market building and launch,” it stated.

Moderna still expects to break even in 2028.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/26/2025 - 22:45

Down The 'Racist' Rabbit Hole - Why Are So Many Arrested Minorities Booked As 'White'?

Zero Hedge -

Down The 'Racist' Rabbit Hole - Why Are So Many Arrested Minorities Booked As 'White'?

2025 has been a great year for noticing things that would have gotten one censored, canceled, or debanked just a few short years ago. 

In today's episode, former DOE nuclear engineer Matt Von Swol notices something that's been floating around for years; the insane number of minorities (mexicans and blacks) who are booked as "WHITE" when they get arrested - something which obviously manipulates 'inconvenient' crime stats - something that TPUSA's Andrew Kolvet noted have been "widely corrupted to serve a racist agenda.'

"I searched through thousands of arrests in my county and every single Hispanic individual who has been arrested is labelled as "WHITE"" Van Swol posted on X. 

In other cases, a suspect's gender and race were listed as 'unknown'.

"How can anyone trust crime data when this exists?" Van Swol replied to Kolvet. "The entire system depends on a way of cataloging race than is either intentionally misleading or deliberately inaccurate."

"Either way, it’s clear the “white” crime data cannot be trusted."

The replies were full of other examples of people noticing... Why is this happening?

According to popular X user @amuse:

This is actually not a conspiracy but result of the way we define race. Hispanics can be of any race - white, black, asian, etc... As a result, Hispanic or Latino is treated as an ethnicity, not a race. In fact, 93% of Hispanics are classified as "White" by law enforcement, regardless of ancestry or self-identification. This is not unique to police; it's consistent with how the U.S. Census Bureau and other federal data collection works. We ought to fix this and include 'Hispanic' as a race and include citizenship or residency status.

Which would suggest the classification system itself is the problem, not a vast conspiracy within police departments. 

Except what about examples like this?

Amazingly, California actually separates hispanic from white in the race category, revealing what we all knew - Asians make for terrible criminals.

This concludes today's episode of noticing what we've all noticed.  

 

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No lies detected... Tyler Durden Sun, 10/26/2025 - 19:15

Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk -

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 26, 2025

• FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected

Monday:
• (will not be released due to government shutdown) At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

• (will not be released) At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 320 (fair value).

Oil prices were mixed over the last week with WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $65.94 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $68, and Brent was at $72 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.01 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.09 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.08 year-over-year.

Which Streaming Services Are The Most Expensive

Zero Hedge -

Which Streaming Services Are The Most Expensive

Prices have increased again for subscription services to streaming platforms in 2024 and 2025. 

Disney+ is the latest to raise its costs, increasing from $15.99 per month to $18.99 per month as of October 21, 2025.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, this places it on the upper end of monthly pricing, alongside Hulu, which raised its monthly prices from $17.99 to $18.99 in October 2024.

Which Streaming Services Are the Most Expensive | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Both Disney+ and Hulu saw their churn rates double in September, from four to eight percent and five to ten percent, respectively.

While the announcements of increased prices set for October could have contributed to higher rates of subscription cancellations than usual, The Hollywood Reporter notes that the increase in cancellations notably coincides with the temporary removal of Jimmy Kimmel from ABC, a Disney subsidiary.

This is thought to be the main reason for the increased churn rate, as other streaming platforms’ cancellation rates remained more consistent when they saw price hikes (HBO Max remained at 7 percent churn between May and June 2025; Apple TV (formerly Apple TV+) saw churn at 6 percent in May 2025 and 5 percent in June 2025; while Netflix has remained at a steady 2 percent churn regardless of its price hike).

After holding its price steady at $15.49 since 2022, Netflix raised its price for its standard ad-free plan once more, increasing it to $17.99 as of January.

Apple TV has maintained one of the more competitive pricing plans, despite also pushing up its monthly cost to $12.99 as of August this year.

Amazon Prime Video, which started at $8.99 per month for new standalone customers, introduced an additional $2.99 monthly charge to go ad-free in January 2024.

For members, Amazon Prime, which includes Prime Video, is currently $14.99 per month in the U.S.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/26/2025 - 12:15

Fringe Theories For A Faulty Financial System

Zero Hedge -

Fringe Theories For A Faulty Financial System

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

We’re obviously living in tumultuous times. If investors sense they’re on a financial roller coaster, they’re right.

Recently, I scanned my market tickers and saw that everything was up. Stocks, bonds, gold, silver, the dollar, cryptos and commodities were all advancing. Of course, that didn’t last. The next day cryptos crashed and stocks were down sharply. Even gold suffered its worst day in a decade on Tuesday, a day after notching new record highs.

In these markets, volatility is the one constant.

These types of markets demand discipline, but they also give rise to what I can only describe as fringe theories.

Even highly seasoned market analysts with great reputations will write to me with theories they’ve heard asking what I think about them.

We don’t have space to go into all of them (and many are just nonsense and not worth going into), but the main theme is that somehow the U.S. Treasury is working on a technical default on government debt.

Theory #1 – A U.S. Debt Default

The easiest way to default is simple inflation. Even 4% inflation will cut the value of the dollar in half in just 18 years and half again in another 18 years. That means the dollar will lose more than 75% of its purchasing power in a typical 40-year career beginning at age 23 and retiring at age 63. Inflation higher than 4% will decimate the dollar even faster. The simplest form of protection is to allocate half your portfolio to hard assets like gold, silver, land or other natural resources.

There will not be a formal default on U.S. Treasury debt or anything like it, including forced debt swaps or maturity swaps.

The U.S. can always find buyers for Treasury debt, starting with the big U.S. banks and the Fed if needed. Inflation is still a risk (as noted above), but outright default will not happen and it is not necessary.

This does not mean that high deficits and high debts are a free ride. The key metric is the debt-to-GDP ratio. Right now, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is 124%. Anything above 90% has a Keynesian multiplier < 1. You can still borrow your way to some growth as Joe Biden did, but the ratio just gets higher, and growth slows even more. The key is to lower the ratio. That’s what the market is looking for and what Trump is trying to deliver.

You can still have high debt and deficits. But if the debt-to-GDP ratio is dropping, we’re moving in the right direction, and the market will give the U.S. time. That ratio dropped from 114% in 1945 to 32% in 1980, so we’ve been here before and got out of it over the course of 35 years. Deficits and annual debt were both 3 times higher in 1980 than in 1945, but growth was 10 times higher, so the ratio dwindled. That’s the key.

What’s impressive about the U.S. effort to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio between 1945 and 1980 was that it was bipartisan. That effort was pursued by Democrats like Harry Truman, JFK, LBJ, and Jimmy Carter as well as Republicans like Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. It was not a highly politicized issue. Leaders knew what needed to be done and they did it. They may have argued about everything else, but the need to reduce the debt ratio was not politicized. Unfortunately, that’s not true today, which makes the task more difficult.

Theory #2 – A Dual Debt System

Another theory floating around is that the U.S. will go to a dual debt system with a gold-backed dollar for domestic transactions and a pure paper dollar for foreign transactions. That’s extremely unlikely.

Dual systems don’t work absent extreme capital controls. The reason is arbitrage. Once you create any kind of dual system using the same currency (and gold), hedge funds will drive the two types of dollars to parity or make the holders of paper dollars go broke in the process.

Another side effect would be Gresham’s Law, which says that bad money drives out good. As applied to this scheme, investors would hoard the “gold dollars” and dump the “paper dollars” at every opportunity. Sooner than later, no gold dollars would be found.

A Global Liquidity Crisis

No one really understands the dollar. People talk about the dollar being “up” or “down” or “sideways.” My question is: compared to what? On a given day, the dollar can be up against the yen, down against gold and sideways against the euro. Was the dollar up, down or sideways that day? It was all three. You can’t have an intelligent conversation about dollar valuation until you define your metric.

I use gold because it’s money, but it’s not a currency. Gold still plays an important role in the fate of the dollar.

If you use gold as a way to measure the dollar, don’t look at the dollar price per ounce. Instead, ask what weight of gold you get for $1.00. The answer in 1971 was 0.02857 ounces. The answer in 1980 was 0.00125 ounces. That’s a 95.6% devaluation in nine years.

That was the real collapse of the dollar, but everyone missed it because they were looking at yen, sterling and Deutsche Marks.

If you had the same devaluation (measured by weight of gold) today, then gold would be over $94,000 per ounce. Again, there’s your devaluation. I’m not necessarily forecasting that price level, but history says we should not rule it out.

That said, the dollar compared to other currencies is strong and getting stronger. There’s a global dollar shortage. To find it, don’t look at the central banks; look at commercial Eurodollar banks.

The Treasury monthly TIC reports show that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries. They wish they had more. To the extent they sell any (or let them roll off at maturity), it’s because they’re desperate for the cash to prop up their own currency or bail out their own banks. Treasuries are dollar-denominated, but they are not dollars. You have to sell them to get dollars. Based on this global dollar shortage, we may be on the verge of a global liquidity crisis.

The truth is we don’t have to search for fringe theories to see if there’s something wrong with the financial system. The evidence is all around us hiding in plain sight.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/26/2025 - 11:40

IRS Reinstates $20,000 / 200-Transaction Threshold For Form 1099-K

Zero Hedge -

IRS Reinstates $20,000 / 200-Transaction Threshold For Form 1099-K

The Internal Revenue Service on Oct. 23 issued a fact sheet confirming that the higher reporting threshold for Form 1099-K has been restored under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, reversing changes made during the Biden administration.

The IRS building in Washington on March 25, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Form 1099-K applies to individuals who earn money through gig work or sell goods online. Third-party settlement organizations (TPSOs)—including platforms such as Amazon, eBay, PayPal, and Venmo - must send copies of the form to both the IRS and taxpayers, detailing the total payments received for goods and services.

Return to the Pre-2021 Standard

Before 2021, TPSOs were required to issue a Form 1099-K only if a seller received more than $20,000 and conducted at least 200 transactions during the year.

The 2021 American Rescue Plan Act lowered that threshold to $600, triggering widespread criticism from taxpayers and digital-payment platforms who warned the rule would swamp casual sellers with unnecessary paperwork.

The IRS initially attempted to phase in the lower limit—proposing $5,000 for 2024, $2,500 for 2025, and $600 from 2026 onward—but the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, permanently repealed those reductions.
As a result, TPSOs are again only required to issue Form 1099-K if both of the following are true:

  1. The gross payments to a payee exceed $20,000, and

  2. The number of transactions exceeds 200.

The IRS noted that some states maintain lower thresholds that remain in effect locally.

Income Still Taxable, With or Without a Form 1099-K

The IRS emphasized that the reporting threshold affects only who receives the form, not what is taxable.
“All income, no matter the amount, is taxable unless the tax law says it isn’t—even if you don’t get a Form 1099-K,” the agency said. That includes cash, property, or services received in exchange for goods or labor.

Tax Year

Law / Regulation

Reporting Threshold

Notes

Pre-2021 Original IRS Rule > $20,000 AND > 200 transactions Long-standing standard for third-party payment networks. 2021 – 2023 American Rescue Plan Act (Biden admin.) >$600 (single transaction) Intended to expand reporting to casual sellers; widely criticized. 2024 (proposed phase-in) IRS transitional guidance >$5,000 Never fully implemented. 2025 (proposed phase-in) IRS transitional guidance >$2,500 Also suspended pending legislation. 2026 (onward under ARP) Planned final stage (now repealed) >$600 Would have applied to nearly all online sellers. July 4 2025 – present One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Trump admin.) > $20,000 AND > 200 transactions Restores pre-2021 rule; overrides ARP thresholds.

The Coalition for 1099-K Fairness - representing payment platforms and small-business advocates - praised the rollback. The group argued that the $600 rule “threatened to overwhelm small businesses and individuals utilizing payment apps with confusing tax forms and expose millions of transactions to unnecessary scrutiny.”

Reinstating the pre-existing standard, it said, “brings clarity and consistency back to hardworking Americans and reduces administrative waste for both taxpayers and the IRS.”

The fact sheet reiterates that personal transfers, such as gifts, reimbursements, or shared expenses, should not trigger Form 1099-K reporting.

Examples include splitting the cost of a meal, receiving birthday money, or getting repaid by a roommate for rent or utilities. Users are encouraged to label these as “non-business” transactions within payment apps when possible.

If You Receive a Form 1099-K in Error

Taxpayers who receive a Form 1099-K in error should contact the issuer (whose details appear in the upper-left “Filer” section of the form) and request a corrected version.

The IRS advises keeping the original form and any correspondence for records and filing a return on time even if a corrected form cannot be obtained before the filing deadline.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/26/2025 - 11:00

Europe's Suicide Pact: Debt, War Economy, And The Climate Cult

Zero Hedge -

Europe's Suicide Pact: Debt, War Economy, And The Climate Cult

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The EU summit on Thursday in Brussels focused primarily on security issues. To put it bluntly: Ukraine must somehow turn its lost war against Russia into a victory, and the EU must be militarily ready for action by 2030. The fact that this would only be feasible with a functioning economy has apparently not yet dawned on the power center in Brussels. Instead, they are preparing for a major fiscal “liberation strike,” giving bureaucracy a lush boom of its own.

When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz traveled to Brussels for the EU summit, his fiery rhetoric about EU bureaucratization followed him closely. “Let me put it in very vivid terms: We need to stick a branch into the wheels of this Brussels machine so that this stops,” Merz declared in September at a conference of the SME and Economic Union — playing, for a brief moment, the role of someone who understands the concerns of the small-business community.

Empty Media Theater

Given today’s Kafkaesque bureaucratic pressures, Merz will likely resort more frequently to this kind of small-business slang in the coming months — whenever the complaints from industry grow louder and demands to end pointless regulatory harassment reach public consciousness.

But no one should expect serious reforms. The example of relabeling “citizen’s income” to “basic security” without any structural change shows that the German government’s policy amounts to a media performance, buying time to defend Brussels’ eco-socialist course at any cost.

The summit confirmed this: Some “mini-reforms” are allowed to release a bit of pressure — but the fundamental line is untouchable. By 2040, the EU must produce climate-neutral output, no matter the cost — either through radical de-growth like in Germany or via buying CO₂ indulgences from elsewhere. As long as the climate books balance, nothing else matters.

Loyal Climate Disciple

Despite the sharp rhetoric, Merz remains a loyal disciple of Brussels’ regulatory-and-climate policy. Along with 19 other European leaders, he presented a sweeping reform proposal to strengthen EU competitiveness. In a letter to EU Council President António Costa, they demanded the Commission review all rules by year-end, scrap outdated and excessive regulations, and reduce new legislation to an “absolute minimum.”

This is rhetorical shadowboxing. Tough talk about regulatory madness — followed by nothing. At best, critics are pacified with subsidies. It’s the oldest EU trick: today’s credit-financed subsidy silences dissent and shifts the price — inflation and higher taxes — into the future.

Masters of Concealing Causality

Brussels is world champion in disguising cause and effect.

In fact, the EU is already preparing a €2 trillion heavyweight budget to be launched in 2028 — with green subsidies and new war machinery, all centrally orchestrated and embedded into national bureaucracies. In Germany’s case, Brussels’ debt wave is complemented by another €50 billion per year from “special funds.” Thousands of new government jobs will be needed to distribute this credit shock.

That this will inevitably trigger major inflation and further tax hikes is something the Chancellor prefers not to mention. The public mood is already… let’s say: tense. No need to pour fuel on that fire.

War Economy = More Bureaucracy

The build-out of a European war economy — with Germany as the main engine — will further swell the state apparatus. Defense and green sectors together form a massive impoverishment program targeting the European middle class, which is being milked more bluntly than ever.

Rising carbon taxes, an EU-wide plastic levy, higher business-tax multipliers, exploding labor costs — the construction of a EU super-state and the financing of its climate ambitions is a costly pleasure.

Germany’s companies are suffocating under mountains of freshly minted EU regulation. Direct bureaucracy costs alone amount to about €70 billion annually, according to a study by the Bundesbank.

Bureaucratic Burdens Keep Growing

If Chancellor Merz now wants to cut bureaucracy and reduce the public workforce by 8% — after contracting 50,000 new state employees in just 12 months — while also reducing bureaucratic burdens by a quarter… it basically means one thing: the green-socialist ideology would need to be deeply curtailed.

But the summit made one thing clear: While awareness is slowly growing in the badly battered economies of Germany, Italy, and France, the climate path remains sacred. Net-zero stays — whether the target year says 2040 or 2045. Any concessions? Shell games designed to reshuffle burdens without altering policy fundamentals.

Privatizing State Bureaucracy

How detached this ideological steering is from economic reality becomes crystal clear in new labor-market data. In the past three years, regulation has “created” 325,000 new jobs in medium-sized companies. The press cheers this as a labor-market success.

But these positions are merely outsourced government bureaucracy — financed by companies and customers. They produce nothing, improve nothing, and respond to no market demand. They are barriers — new cost centers imposed by a metastasizing regulatory regime.

Industrial Exodus Accelerates

The fallout is obvious. A recent survey of 240 executives in energy-intensive industries like steel and chemicals shows: 31% of major companies in Germany are shifting production abroad. Another 42% are delaying investment or moving it to other European locations.

Energy prices, overregulation, and rising trade pressure from the U.S. — all accelerating Germany’s deindustrialization — and strengthened by a bureaucracy that keeps multiplying like bacteria in a petri dish.

Yet neither CEOs nor unions dare challenge the grotesque EU climate agenda. Brussels’ climate crusade increasingly resembles a sectarian conspiracy against rationality and economic logic.

The solution already exists — straight from former ECB chief Mario Draghi: more debt, another €800-billion megaprogram to “boost productivity” — meaning: more central control in Brussels. Add climate ideology plus war economy — and the recipe for the EU’s future is complete.

Climate Bureaucracy: The Last Fortress of Power

For Ursula von der Leyen and her Commission, climate politics is existential. Over the years, Brussels has built a tentacled, subsidy-fed bureaucracy that expands its power in direct proportion to regulatory intervention in the economy.

Wherever a “climate compliance officer” files reports on EU deforestation rules, Brussels is lurking close by.

“Ubi Brussels, ibi Imperium.”

Even U.S. tech giants are discovering Europe’s censorship apparatus — targeting platforms like X and Google to secure control of the public narrative and silence criticism of Brussels’ growing influence and failed transformation agenda.

An open debate about the failed green regulation project? Absolutely forbidden. The entire power architecture of the Brussels bureaucracy rests on CO₂ panic. If that panic dies, Brussels dies with it — and they know it.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/26/2025 - 09:20

FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected

Calculated Risk -

Most analysts expect the FOMC to reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25bps at the meeting this week to a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also cut rates an additional 25bps at the December meeting.
From BofA:
The Fed has indicated that it will cut rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.0% at its October meeting. We also expect the FOMC to announce an end to balance sheet runoff. We think the Fed will acknowledge the recent strength of economic activity. But the broader shift in focus toward the labor mandate probably won’t change. Powell is also unlikely to offer much guidance beyond this meeting given the lack of official sector data and the current labor-consumption conundrum.
...
Our base case is that there will again be only one dissent, a dovish one from Governor Miran, who indicated that he would favor a 50bp cut in a recent interview. But we see meaningful risks of at least one hawkish dissent as well.
emphasis added
Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. Here are the September projections.  
The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.6% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 2.8%.  That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 1.9% annualized - above the top end of the September projections.
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20251.4 to 1.71.7 to 2.11.8 to 2.0Jun 20251.2 to 1.51.5 to 1.81.7 to 2.0 1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in August.  The unemployment rate will likely increase further this year.  There was no data for September due to the government shutdown.
Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20254.4 to 4.54.4 to 4.54.2 to 4.4Jun 20254.4 to 4.54.3 to 4.64.2 to 4.6 2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of August 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.y% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.6% YoY in July. 
Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20252.9 to 3.02.4-2.72.0 to 2.2Jun 20252.8 to 3.22.3-2.62.0 to 2.2
PCE core inflation increased 2.9% YoY in August, unchanged from 2.9% YoY in July.  There will likely be further increases in core PCE inflation, although CPI measured inflation was below expectations in September.
Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 Projection Date202520262027 Sept 20253.0 to 3.22.5-2.72.0 to 2.2Jun 20252.9 to 3.42.3-2.62.0 to 2.2

Hungary Scrambles To 'Circumvent' US Sanctions On Russian Oil Majors

Zero Hedge -

Hungary Scrambles To 'Circumvent' US Sanctions On Russian Oil Majors

Via The Cradle

Hungary is seeking to circumvent new US sanctions on Russian oil companies in an effort to avoid disruptions to the country's energy supplies, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday.

In press statements, Orban emphasized that banning cheap and reliable oil and gas from Russia would significantly increase the energy bills of the Hungarian people. "We are still fighting. So, we haven't lost the battle yet. We need serious maneuvers. We need leadership that will defend this. We are being pressured."

PAP/Pool

Hungary relies heavily on oil transported through the Druzhba pipeline from Russia through Ukraine and Slovakia. MOL Group, which operates refineries in Hungary and Slovakia, processes 14.2 million tons of Russian crude oil a year.

Orban said he has spoken with MOL Group about the sanctions, which come into effect in November. "We are working on how to circumvent this sanction," he said in an interview with state radio Kossuth.

The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed the new sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Wednesday.

The Treasury said its actions would increase pressure on Russia's energy sector and degrade the Kremlin's ability to fight its war against Ukraine. The sanctions drove up oil prices this week and raised questions regarding how Hungary and Slovakia can continue to meet their energy needs.

Until now, the two Eastern European nations have been able to continue Russian oil purchases despite the war by securing exemptions from EU restrictions.

Hungary was scheduled to host a summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a peace deal in the Ukraine war, but this effort has appeared put on pause.

Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told TASS news agency on Friday that the summit would move ahead, though the dates have not been determined. Recent news reports claimed the summit had been canceled.

Following the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022, Washington and Brussels sought to cut off Europe from Russian oil and gas, forcing the continent to buy more expensive US-produced liquefied natural gas (LNG).

On Thursday, Reuters reported that Germany is seeking an exemption from US sanctions on Rosneft's German business, citing a person with direct knowledge of government discussions of the matter.

After the US sanctions were announced, several German banks said sanctions could stop them from dealing with the local energy supplier.

Reuters notes that Rosneft's German business is controlled by the German government but is Russian-owned. "It is a key supplier, routing and refining oil to petrol pumps and some airports in Europe's biggest economy," the agency reported.

Germany's economy has suffered since the start of the Russia–Ukraine war, in particular after flows of cheap Russian oil ended to Europe's largest industrial economy after an explosion destroyed the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline in September 2022. The explosion was widely viewed as the result of sabotage by a state actor.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/26/2025 - 08:10

Chinese Nationals Arrested In Georgia For Attempting To Buy Black Market Uranium 

Zero Hedge -

Chinese Nationals Arrested In Georgia For Attempting To Buy Black Market Uranium 

In an entirely bizarre and alarming story emerging out of the Republic of Georgia, the country's State Security Service announced Saturday that three Chinese nationals had been arrested in Tbilisi for allegedly attempting to illegally purchase two kilograms of uranium.

They are accused of attempting to illegally obtain "nuclear material," Interpress news agency reported as cited in Reuters. It's unclear whether the suspects have any official links with the Chinese government or its military or intelligence services, however. The suspects intended to buy the uranium for $400,000 and smuggle it to China through Russia, Georgian security and intelligence officials detailed further.

Via AP

Statements from Georgian security services describe a case where the traffickers were caught red-handed. "According to the authorities, a Chinese citizen already in Georgia, who was in breach of Georgian visa regulations, brought experts to Georgia to search for uranium throughout the country," CBS writes.

"Other members of the criminal group coordinated the operation from China, the statement said." Further:

The perpetrators were identified and detained while "negotiating the details of the illegal transaction," the security service said.

The suspects are facing charges which could bring up to ten years in prison. The scenario of foreigners on risky missions to procure nuclear material in Georgia is not far-fetched, given reports of similar illicit trafficking instances over past years.

For example, one US think tank which monitors the Caucasus region reviews of the abundance of Soviet-era nuclear material there:

The Georgian government has attempted to enhance the safety and security of the nuclear materials under its control, but, prior to the August 2008 war, the anarchic conditions, weak law enforcement, and porous borders in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia have permitted widespread smuggling with neighboring Russian regions, as well as into Georgia. This condition has facilitated trafficking in nuclear materials as well as more conventional forms of contraband such as; narcotics, counterfeit currency, and young women. Georgia’s pivotal location at the crossroads between Europe, Russia, Asia, and the Middle East has raised concerns that transnational trafficking networks could move nuclear materials from Russia through Georgia to international terrorist groups.

The same report highlights out the post-Soviet dissolution and border problems made things very complicated:

During the 1990s, Georgia suffered a series of worrisome incidents involving the discovery of scattered, low-level radioactive materials “orphaned” after the USSR’s collapse. Many of the country’s scientific, medical, industrial, and other facilities contain radiological sources such as Caesium-137 and Strontium-90. With the assistance of IAEA monitors and funding from the U.S. government, Georgian authorities have recovered hundreds of such radioactive sources in abandoned factories, waste depositories, and even private homes. 

As for the newly detained Chines individuals, it has not been stated what their motive or purpose may have been behind seeking to acquire nuclear material.

This and other cases may bring greater scrutiny on such materials in the strategically located region, and international help from US or European monitoring agencies.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/26/2025 - 07:35

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• My Car Is Becoming a Brick: EVs are poised to age like smartphones: Cars from the 2000s/2010s will be serviceable for decades to come. Cars from the 2020s? Not so much… (The Atlantic)

• Gambling. Investing. Gaming. There’s No Difference Anymore. Given a recentexplosion in unsafe gambling and growing evidence of severe financial harm, one might ask whether the government should be permitting 18-year-olds to effectively bet on the Dallas Cowboys with the same accounts they can use to invest in Coca-Cola. (NYT) see also Are we living in a golden age of stupidity? From brain-rotting videos to AI creep, every technological advance seems to make it harder to work, remember, think and function independently… (The Guardian)

• They Signed Up for Citi’s New Premium Card. It Turned Into a Nightmare. Strata Elite cardholders say they were shut out of their accounts without explanation for weeks. (Wall Street Journal)

• From Mexico to Ireland, Fury Mounts Over a Global A.I. Frenzy As tech companies build data centers worldwide to advance artificial intelligence, vulnerable communities have been hit by blackouts and water shortages. When Microsoft opened a data center in central Mexico last year, nearby residents said power cuts became more frequent. Water outages, which once lasted days, stretched for weeks. The shortages led to school cancellations and the spread of stomach bugs in the town of Las Cenizas. Artificial intelligence building boom is straining an already fragile power and water infrastructures in communities around the world. (New York Times)

• Satellites Are Leaking the World’s Secrets: Calls, Texts, Military and Corporate Data: With just $800 in basic equipment, researchers found a stunning variety of data—including thousands of T-Mobile users’ calls and texts and even US military communications—sent by satellites unencrypted. (Wired)

• DC’s Access Journalists Turned the News Into a Luxury Good. Access to news and information has become a luxury good, no different than the comfortable seat you must pay to access on an airplane. Google and Facebook robbed publishers of the ad revenue; between 2004 and 2022, over 2,100 newspapers have gone out of business. (Talking Points Memo)

• Why aren’t smart people happier? AAAA https://www.theseedsofscience.pub/p/why-arent-smart-people-happier

• Crypto crime scene: How the companies behind crypto ATMs profit as Americans lose millions to scams. The victims were led to the Arizona convenience store by an increasingly familiar scam: Crooks had tricked them into believing they were in legal trouble, their bank accounts were hacked or that they had to pay off debts. To fix the “crisis,” they were told to feed cash into the crypto ATM – where it was promptly routed to scammers’ accounts. (CNN)

• A Short Seller’s AI Exercise Paints a Dire Picture of Private Equity: “The industry’s problems are hiding in plain sight,” according to Orso Partners cofounder Nate Koppikar. (II)

• Rubio promised to betray U.S. informants to get Trump’s El Salvador prison deal: To secure Washington’s access to El Salvador’s most notorious prison, the secretary of state made an extraordinary offer to President Nayib Bukele. (Washington Post) see also Stephen Miller’s Snowballing Deportation Deceptions. As NYT’s stories lay out, starting at least as early as 2023, Stephen Miller viewed the Alien Enemies Act as a way to deport people with no due process. (emptywheel) see also How the False Story of a Gang ‘Takeover’ in Colorado Reached Trump: The claim that Aurora, Colo., has been overrun by gun-toting migrants stemmed from the city’s fight with a landlord. Now it is central to one of former President Donald J. Trump’s anti-immigrant campaign promises. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co.  Named “Best Market Strategist” by Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, she is also on Barron’s “100 Most Influential Women in Finance” every year since the list’s inception.

 

Which states have the highest and lowest adult literacy rates?

Source: USA Facts

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Over 100 'BSL-4' Bioweapons Labs Now Operate Worldwide, With More Under Construction

Zero Hedge -

Over 100 'BSL-4' Bioweapons Labs Now Operate Worldwide, With More Under Construction

Authored by Jon Fleetwood via Substack,

Over the past few years, the world has entered a new era of high-containment biological research—marked by a dramatic expansion of laboratories capable of working with the most lethal viruses known to man.

These include facilities built to the highest biosafety standard, Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4), and they carry not only the broken promise of defending us from pandemics but also the danger of enabling bioweapons creation, whether by accident or deliberate misuse.

Strikingly, a May 2025 Journal of Public Health study found that more than 90% of the countries with at least one BSL-3 laboratory lacked oversight or regulation of dual-use research of concern.

Dual-use research refers to experiments that can be used for good (e.g., alleged drug development) but also for harm (e.g., creating a bioweapon).

The Journal of Public Health study aimed to investigate the worldwide distribution of BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratories.

Alarmingly, it found that:

“No international organization has a comprehensive register or global oversight of Biosafety Level 3 (BSL-3)/BSL-4 laboratories. Different countries use different standards for designation of pathogens and laboratories.”

“More than 90% of the countries with at least one BSL3 laboratory have no oversight/regulations regarding dual-use research.”

BSL-3 laboratories work with serious or potentially lethal pathogens that can be transmitted through the air and usually have available treatments or preventions, such as tuberculosis, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID), and avian influenza “bird flu.”

BSL-4 laboratories handle the most dangerous and exotic pathogens that often cause fatal diseases with no available vaccines or treatments, such as Ebola and Marburg viruses.

Taken together, the proliferation of BSL-3 and BSL-4 labs around the world raises national security, informed consent, and conflict of interest concerns.

  • They raise national security concerns because accidental or intentional lab leaks put American lives at risk, clearly proven by the COVID-19 pandemic. Congress, the White House, the Department of Energy, the FBI, and the CIA have confirmed that the COVID pandemic was likely the result of lab-engineered pathogen manipulation.

  • They raise informed consent concerns because citizens are often unknowingly and/or unwillingly exposed to risks from nearby labs or experimental pathogen releases conducted without public awareness or approval.

  • They raise conflict of interest concerns because many of these labs are funded by entities that profit from the development of pathogens and drugs that target those pathogens, meaning they benefit financially from an accidental or intentional lab leak-caused outbreak.

Even former NIAID Director Anthony Fauci—who dismissed claims that a lab leak caused the COVID pandemic—has admitted in print that the greatest biosecurity threat regarding dangerous pathogen research is laboratory “insiders who have direct access” to the pathogens or “outsiders who collaborate with or subvert insiders.”

Given the mounting evidence of accidents, secrecy, and conflicts of interest, the continued operation of these bioweapons labs poses an unacceptable threat to humanity’s safety.

The only responsible course is to shut down all BSL-4 facilities worldwide and impose a global moratorium on high-risk pathogen experiments in order to prevent further catastrophe.

But governments all over the world are doing the opposite.

The Journal of Public Health authors warn in their conclusion:

“The number of BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratories is continually increasing, and many do not have adequate biosafety guidelines.”

Dr. Richard Bartlett warned that COVID-19 resulted from dangerous lab experiments and urged a global ban on bioweapons, calling the unchecked spread of BSL-3 and BSL-4 labs—where such pathogens are made—an existential threat to humanity.

“President Trump recently spoke to the UN General Assembly, stating that COVID was the result of risky laboratory experiments and that the United States would lead an effort to ban bioweapons,” he told this website.

“The White House, U.S. Congress, FBI, CIA, German intelligence, and the Department of Energy’s intelligence division have all acknowledged that COVID ‘may have’ originated from a lab. Bioweapons are developed in BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratories. Yet no one has been held accountable for the worst catastrophe in U.S. history. The continued proliferation of BSL-3 and BSL-4 labs worldwide shows that we have learned nothing from this disaster. Bioweapons, like nuclear weapons, are weapons of mass destruction—and the stockpiling of pathogens such as avian flu represents an existential threat to humanity.”

Worldwide Surge of Bioweapons Labs

Before the COVID pandemic, only a modest number of BSL-4 labs existed worldwide.

Mapping studies published earlier this year show there are now more than 100 operational BSL-4 labs across 34 countries.

Researchers identified a staggering 3,515 BSL-3 laboratories in 149 countries.

They write in their Journal of Public Health publication:

“We identified 3,515 BSL-3 laboratories in 149 countries, with nearly half (47.1%) in the United States. Details on geolocations and pathogens they handled are publicly available for 955 of these labs. The United Kingdom had the highest rate (N = 9) of BSL-3 labs per million population, while Bangladesh had the lowest. High-income countries house 82% of these laboratories. There are 110 BSL-4 laboratories in 34 middle- and high-income countries, and 46% are in the WHO’s Europe region. Notably, from the health security index perspective, 91.6% of countries with at least one BSL-3 laboratory lack guidelines for dual-use research of concern.”

India’s Ambitious Expansion

In India, the Defence Research & Development Establishment (DRDE) in Gwalior inaugurated a BSL-4 facility in November 2024, aimed at experimenting with Nipah virus and Crimean‑Congo hemorrhagic fever virus.

Additional high-containment labs are planned, potentially creating one of Asia’s largest BSL-4 networks.

Russia’s ‘Sanitary Shield’ & Maximum-Containment Ambitions

Russia’s flagship BSL-4 facility at State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology VECTOR (Koltsovo) is already a key part of its bio-infrastructure.

Under the national “Sanitary Shield” program, Moscow announced plans for up to 15 new “maximum-biosafety level” labs by 2024.

While not all details are public, satellite imagery and defense analysis suggest that several facilities—such as the site at Sergiev Posad‑6 near Moscow—exhibit features consistent with BSL-4 design.

United States: Updating an Already Extensive Network

The United States remains home to one of the largest portfolios of BSL-4 labs globally, with around 14 active facilities as of 2023.

These include institutions such as the Galveston National Laboratory, Boston University National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratories (NEIDL) and others managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Construction is underway for a new state-of-the-art BSL-4 laboratory at the CDC’s Roybal campus in Atlanta, Georgia, as part of the CDC’s 2025 Masterplan.

The new facility, called the High Containment Continuity Laboratory (HCCL), will be a 160,000-square-foot, multi-story research building designed to accommodate approximately 80 laboratory researchers.

Latin America’s Entry: Brazil & Argentina

In Brazil, the Brazilian Center for Research in Energy and Materials (CNPEM) broke ground in 2024 on a proposed BSL-4 complex dubbed “Orion,” to be integrated with the country’s Sirius synchrotron light-source.

If realized, it would become South America’s most advanced high-containment biology facility.

In Argentina this month, the Malbrán Institute in Buenos Aires opened the country’s first BSL-4 lab.

As an international hub for migratory birds traveling between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, Argentina’s position makes it a strategic focal point in the global network of avian flu surveillance and experimentation—placing it squarely within the larger international orchestration of a potential bird flu pandemic currently underway.

Bottom Line

The global explosion of BSL-4 laboratories represents not progress, but peril.

What governments call “pandemic preparedness” has become an uncontrolled arms race in bioweapon capability, with more than 110 BSL-4 labs now operating across 34 countries—most in nations that have no enforceable oversight of dual-use research.

The same systems meant to prevent pandemics are engineering the conditions that could ignite the next one.

With over 90% of countries hosting BSL-3 labs lacking any regulation of dual-use research, humanity is effectively constructing a worldwide bioweapons network under the banner of science.

These facilities have already demonstrated fatal lapses, secrecy, and conflicts of interest—and the agencies that fund them often profit from both the creation of pathogens and the “solutions” they sell afterward.

Given this reality, nothing short of a global moratorium on high-risk pathogen research and the immediate closure of all BSL-4 laboratories can protect public safety.

The question is no longer if another lab-engineered outbreak will occur, but how many more chances we are willing to give it to happen again.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/25/2025 - 23:20

Maduro Boasts He's Moved Thousands Of Russian Anti-Air Missiles To Venezuela's Coast

Zero Hedge -

Maduro Boasts He's Moved Thousands Of Russian Anti-Air Missiles To Venezuela's Coast

Venezuela’s president has been warning that his armed forces have deployed 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S anti-aircraft missiles across its territory, at a moment President Trump has ordered an unprecedented force build-up in the Caribbean.

"Any military force in the world knows the power of the Igla-S, and Venezuela has no less than 5,000," Nicolas Maduro said during a televised address to military personnel.

Illustrative file image

The Pentagon confirmed Friday it has redirected a carrier strike group from the Mediterranean to the Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) are of operations to join the significant amount of warships already patrolling waters of Venezuela's coast.

On Friday, Trump was asked about recent reports that Maduro offered "everything in his country, all the natural resources" to ease tensions with Washington. Caracas has denied these reports.

But contradicting the denials, Trump said at the White House that Maduro had offered "everything" because "he doesn’t want to f**k around with the United States."

Weekend reports say that the Venezuelan military continues to deploy additional arms to its coast, in anticipation for possible US military action. Trump has said that "land" targets are an option on the table.

It's unknown whether Venezuela's military actually has thousands of Igla-S systems. The weapon is typically compared to the US Stinger missile, as it can hit  low-flying aircraft, drones, and helicopters at ranges reaching a little less than four miles.

The source Army Recognition writes:

President Maduro’s focus on MANPADS (MAN-Portable Air-Defense missile System) SA-24 Igla-S fits a broader picture of Venezuelan point-defense layers built over the past decade, in which shoulder-fired systems complement legacy short-range air defenses and anti-air artillery. Recent technical reviews describe an inventory that pairs MANPADS such as the Russian Igla-S with Sweden’s laser-guided RBS-70, backed by mobile batteries and radar coverage designed to complicate any attacker’s route selection at low altitude. The concept is not to defeat a modern air force outright but to raise attrition and force higher-risk flight profiles.

But these short-range missiles will be no match for large American warships, and certainly not the Ford Carrier Group - said to now be en route.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/25/2025 - 22:45

Queensland LNP Government Restores Biological Definition Of 'Woman'

Zero Hedge -

Queensland LNP Government Restores Biological Definition Of 'Woman'

Authored by Crystal-Rose Jones via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Queensland’s Minister for Women Fiona Simpson has restored the state’s official definition for a woman.

A sign indicating an 'all gender' facility at Sydney Airport in Australia on Oct. 12, 2025. Susan Mortimer/The Epoch Times

Under the previous Labor government, the definition was widened to encompass “all people who identify as a woman or girl,” according to the Queensland Women and Girls’ Health Strategy 2032 (pdf).

It came amid broader changes to the Human Rights Act in June 2023—coming into affect a year later—which loosened the requirement for changing the official gender on a birth certificate, to the point where children 12 and up could change their gender without needing surgery or treatment.

“Despite repeated claims to the contrary there is no evidence from any jurisdiction to suggest women will have fewer rights, or be less safe, as a result of these changes,” then-Women’s Minister Shannon Fentiman told Parliament in June 2023.

The centre-right Liberal National Party (LNP) and conservative-leaning Katter Australian Party opposed the law at the time.

This year on Sept. 16, KAP Leader Robbie Katter asked the current LNP Minister Simpson for her definition during Question Time.

“Will the minister (a) define ‘women’ as it is used in the Department of Women, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Partnerships and Multiculturalism; and (b) detail if the minister and department consider transgender people as women?” Katter said.

This week, a response was provided where Simpson officially stated that: “(a) A woman is an adult female human being; and (b) A transgender person is someone whose gender identity is opposite to the sex the person was born with, male or female.”

Fiona Simpson, Queensland LNP minister for women, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander partnerships, and multiculturalism at the Queensland Parliament in Brisbane, Australia on Aug. 7, 2025. AAP Image/Darren England How Many Have Changed Their Official Gender?

Katter also asked Attorney-General Deb Frecklington how many people had changed their gender on their birth certificate since Oct. 27, 2024, when the LNP came to power.

Katter also asked how many people were 16 or under, and how many were aged 16-18.

In turn, Frecklington recently responded to the question saying the Registry of Births, Deaths, and Marriages does “not formally report” on changes as it was “considered sensitive information.”

“Children under 16 seeking to change their sex must have their parents or persons with parental responsibility apply to Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages (RBDM) on their behalf, or must obtain an Order of the Children’s Court,” Frecklington said.

“The BDMR Act requires an assessment of the child by a developmentally informed practitioner confirming that the child understands the meaning and legal implications of altering their record of sex.

“People over the age of 16 are required to provide a statement of support from an adult who has known them for 12 months or more, confirming they believe the application is being made honestly and in good faith.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/25/2025 - 22:10

US Flying Surveillance Drones Over Gaza To Monitor Ceasefire

Zero Hedge -

US Flying Surveillance Drones Over Gaza To Monitor Ceasefire

The White House has promised no boots on the ground in Gaza as part of Trump's peace plan, which has resulted in a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel holding for two weeks, but that doesn't mean it doesn't have assets in the air.

The United States has begun deploying surveillance drones over the Gaza Strip to verify that both Israel and Hamas are adhering to the ceasefire, according to The New York Times on Saturday.

Via AFP

The American drones are said to be operating over the Strip with Israel's coordination and approval, but precise locations or flight paths haven't been disclosed.

The drone flights support the operations of the newly established Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), staffed by some 200 American troops and officers, along with participating allied nations.

The NYT also revealed that the Pentagon had previously used drones to assist the Israeli military in locating hostages in the Strip, or else finding terror cells.

The Pentagon used MQ-9 Reaper drones in Gaza to for these earlier missions. Interestingly the NY Times report actually hints at growing distrust between the US and Israeli sides in terms of implementing the ceasefire:

A former American diplomat and defense official, like some Israeli officials, expressed surprise at the latest U.S. surveillance missions in Gaza, given the two countries’ close military ties.

“This is a very intrusive version of U.S. monitoring on a front where Israel perceives an active threat,” said Daniel B. Shapiro, who served as the U.S. ambassador to Israel under President Barack Obama and as a special envoy to Israel on Iran under President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.

“If there was total transparency and total trust between Israel and the U.S., there wouldn’t be a need for this,” Mr. Shapiro said. “But obviously the U.S. wants to eliminate any possibility of misunderstanding.”

That distrust was on display also while Vice President JD Vance and other top White House officials were in Israel this week.

Israel's parliament days ago gave initial approval to a controversial bill that would extend Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank, widely viewed as tantamount to full Israeli annexation of the Palestinian territory. A Knesset statement said the proposal seeks "to apply the sovereignty of the State of Israel to the territories of Judea and Samaria (West Bank)."

This largely 'symbolic' vote angered Vance and the American delegation, as it was seen as a provocation which could sink the ceasefire deal - at a moment they were on the ground inspecting the situation in southern Israel.

Vance denounced the "stupid political stunt" which was an "insult" led by hardliner MPs. But he also said it may have merely been "symbolic" but it was "weird" to do especially while he was still in the country.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/25/2025 - 21:35

California Has Largest Population Of Centenarians: Census Report

Zero Hedge -

California Has Largest Population Of Centenarians: Census Report

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Golden State has the largest number of residents living well into their golden years, according to a new U.S. Census report issued on Sept. 22.

A 100-year-old American World War II veteran, Harold Terens, and his 96-year-old bride, Jeanne Swerlin Terens, toast each other with glasses of champagne after their wedding at the Carentan-les-Marais Town Hall in Carentan-les-Marais, France, on June 8, 2024. Win McNamee/Getty Images

California reported 10,623 residents older than 100 years old, followed by New York (6,921), Florida (6,580), and Texas (4,435) as the top states with the highest population of centenarians.

Alaska recorded only 94 centenarians, which was the fewest, followed by Wyoming (126), Vermont (167), and Delaware (197), with each having fewer than 200 centenarians statewide, according to the census report.

The new report “Centenarians: 2020” examined living arrangements and other details of the 80,139 people living in the U.S. who were 100 years old or older in 2020.

“Living to the age of 100 is extremely rare,” the census wrote in the report.

In 2020, U.S. residents who lived until the age of 65 were expected to reach about 83.5 years old on average.

“Centenarians ... defied those odds,” the census reported.

Beyond living arrangements and locations, the census also found that more men were living past age 100 in 2020, when compared to 2010 census tallies.

Centenarians remain overwhelmingly female—accounting for nearly 79 percent of the population. But that percentage has declined. In 2010, nearly 83 percent were female.

“Centenarians, a largely White alone and female population, became slightly more racially diverse and male in 2020,” the census reported. “The increase in racial diversity (i.e., about an 8 percentage-point decline in the White alone share) was on par with what was shown for other age groups among the older population.”

The only group of centenarians to decline in the past decade was African Americans, who dropped to 10.3 percent in 2020 from 12.2 percent in 2010.

Age and Sex Differences

More than half—or nearly 61 percent—of the centenarians in the U.S were 100 or 101.

100-year-old Vee Duurloo attends a rally for presidential candidate Donald Trump in Prescott Valley, Ariz., on Oct. 13, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Super-centenarians—people who were 110 or older—numbered 1,933 nationwide, according to the census.

According to a recent National Center for Health Statistics report, females generally live about 5.7 years longer than males. Women are expected to live to 79.9 years on average, while men live to about 74.2 years, according to the census.

State Proportion Numbers

According to the numbers from the 2020 U.S. Census, Hawaii had the largest proportion of centenarians. It was the only state with more than four—4.44 to be exact—centenarians per 10,000 in 2020. Puerto Rico reported 4.14 centenarians per 10,000 people.

States with relatively high proportions of centenarians—between 3.5 and 3.99 per 10,000 people—were Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Connecticut.

The nationwide centenarian proportion is 2.42 per 10,000, the census reported.

Utah and Alaska had the lowest proportion of centenarians per 10,000, according to the census.

Marie Hendrix (L) and Gabrielle Vaudremer, 100-year-old Belgian twins, celebrate their birthday. Nicolas Lambert/AFP/Getty Images Global Comparisons

The number of U.S. centenarians was among the largest of all countries, the study revealed.

Globally, Japan had the highest proportion of citizens aged 65 and older in the world, while Italy had the highest proportion of 65 and older residents in Europe, according to the census.

The U.S. proportion of 2.42 centenarians per 10,000 people was slightly smaller than Italy’s figure of 2.48. It was also less than half of the share for Japan, which recorded 6.37 centenarians per 10,000 people, according to the census.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/25/2025 - 21:00

Huge Mellon Donation: Secretive Banking Heir Revealed As $130M 'Private' Benefactor To Pay Troops

Zero Hedge -

Huge Mellon Donation: Secretive Banking Heir Revealed As $130M 'Private' Benefactor To Pay Troops

Based billionaire recluse Timothy Mellon has been revealed as the (now formerly) anonymous private donor who gave $130 million to the US government to help pay troops during the shutdown. Hell, the virtuous (signaling) Mark Cuban - who's worth more than Mellon, won't even do that for Ukraine where 'half his family' is from.

The massive donation was announced Thursday night by President Donald Trump - who only referred to the donor as a "patriot" and friend who "doesn't want publicity." 

“He called us the other day and he said, ‘I'd like to contribute any shortfall you have because of the Democrat shutdown. I’d like to contribute, personally, contribute any shortfall you have with the military, because I love the military and I love the country, and any shortfall, if there’s a shortfall, I’ll contribute it...'’’

“He doesn’t really want the recognition, if you want to know the truth, but he gave us a check for $130 million, which was sort of a shortfall, and that’s going to go to the military." -Trump

Today, the NY Times leaked it. 

Mellon, a wealthy banking heir and railroad magnate who lives a quiet life in Wyoming, has been giving tens of millions of dollars to groups backing Trump and Republicans in general - including $50 million last year to a Trump super PAC, one of the largest single contributions ever disclosed. 

He's also a big supporter of RFK Jr. - giving money to his presidential campaign, as well as Kennedy's group, Children's Health Defense. 

According to the report, the Pentagon accepted the donation under the "general gift acceptance authority," and was "made on the condition that it be used to offset the cost of service members’ salaries and benefits," Pentagon spox Sean Parnell said. 

And yet... (of course)

THE NY TIMES IS SALTY ABOUT IT

While just about anything in Washington might violate any law at any time - the Times drops this little nugget towards the end; 

Still, the donation appears to be a potential violation of the Antideficiency Act, which prohibits federal agencies from spending money in excess of congressional appropriations or from accepting voluntary services.

Oh no, the thing that's happened over 80 times between 2018-2024 alone (GAO) and has never been prosecuted in its 155 years of existence. 

Does anyone on the left have the balls to bring that lawsuit? 

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/25/2025 - 20:25

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