Individual Economists

Pulque: A 2,000-Year-Old Sacred Mesoamerican Booze

Zero Hedge -

Pulque: A 2,000-Year-Old Sacred Mesoamerican Booze

Authored by Ross Pomeroy via RealClearScience,

The Mexica people ruled the Aztec Empire in the Valley of Mexico for its roughly 90-year duration between the 15th and 16th centuries. Mexica mythology tells of an intoxicated deity, Ometochtli, whose drink of choice was pulque. White and viscous, with a strong, yeasty odor of slightly spoiled buttermilk, pulque is produced through fermenting a sugary sap known as aguamiel, extracted from certain species of Agave plant. According to myth, the goddess Mayehuatzin, Ometochtli's sister, provided the aguamiel and plied him with his favorite fermented booze.

While pulque is today little known outside of Mexico, it has deep roots in human history, tracing back 2,000 years in Mesoamerica. Researchers at the Escuela Superior de Medicina del Instituto Politécnico Nacional in Mexico City recently explored its longstanding significance in a paper published to the journal histories

The Mexica may have been most fond of pulque, but the Teotihuacanos, Otomies, Zapotecas, Mixtecas, and Maya also consumed it. "Anthropological evidence, including pottery, murals, codices, chronicles, and oral cosmological traditions, suggests that this... alcoholic beverage was already part of the diet of the inhabitants of Teotihuacan," the authors wrote. "Pulque is therefore one of the oldest, if not the most important, fermented beverages in Mesoamerican history."

One of the reasons pulque is relatively overlooked compared to other fermented beverages, such as kombucha (originating in ancient China) and kefir (hailing from the North Caucasus), is its exceedingly brief shelf life. Naturally fermented in an enclosed container over 12 to 24 hours, it reaches an alcohol concentration comparable to beer – roughly 4 percent to 6 percent – then rapidly spoils over the next 24 to 36 hours. 

Its transience made it a sacred drink and divine gift in ancient Mesoamerican cultures. "It was highly esteemed and reserved for the nobility and priesthood, who consumed it during ceremonial and religious rituals," the researchers described.

Today, pulque's transience makes it difficult to export and sell. While the Spanish conquistadors enjoyed it (and its intoxicating effects) after conquering the Aztecs, pulque over time fell out of favor compared to longer-lasting beer, tequila, and wine. European rulers also carried out a coordinated smear campaign against pulque in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

"This anti-pulque campaign, orchestrated by political elites, stigmatized the drink, its producers, and its consumers, depicting it as unsanitary and associated with poverty, indigeneity, and illiteracy," the authors wrote.

Currently enjoyed by locals and tourists in Mexico, pulque hasn't found widespread fandom anywhere else. Pasteurized versions – which last for months – do exist, but food writers express that the experience isn't remotely the same.

"It’s the original active fermented beverage which will simply go bad after a few days so it’s truly a locavore phenomenon," Max Garrone wrote for Flaviar.

As for the flavor, award-winning food writer Naomi Tomky calls it "intriguingly zingy."

"Natural or plain, pulque is an opaque milky color but fizzy and bright on the tongue. Sweet, but not cloying, lightly viscous but not slimy, and just ever-so-subtly yeasty, like the whiff of freshly risen bread dough hitting the oven."

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 22:35

India Doubles Down On Russian Oil Purchases, As Trump Declares Both Are 'Lost' To 'Deepest, Darkest China'

Zero Hedge -

India Doubles Down On Russian Oil Purchases, As Trump Declares Both Are 'Lost' To 'Deepest, Darkest China'

President Trump on Friday said India and Russia seem to have been "lost" to China following Modi and Putin having met with President Xi Jinping this week, amid the leaders hailing the forging ahead of a new multi-polar order which seeks to thwart a purely Washington-centric global system.

"Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!" Trump wrote in a social media, with an accompanying a photo of the three leaders together at Xi's summit in China.

PM Modi, via X

This has been followed on Friday with India confirming that it will double down on Russian oil purchases, in defiance of US tariffs and threats.

"Where do we buy our oil from, especially since it’s a very expensive commodity, we pay a very high price for it and it’s the highest import, so we’ll have to decide what suits us best," Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in an interview.

She then emphasized somewhat defiantly, "We will definitely buy it." On the same day, this development reported in Reuters will only serve to exacerbate tensions

Top Indian refiner Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), opens new tab skipped the purchase of U.S. oil in its latest tender and instead bought 2 million barrels of West African and a million barrels of Middle Eastern grade, trade sources said on Friday.

The state refiner also bought one million barrels each of Nigerian oil grades Agbami and Usan from French oil major TotalEnergy, and another million barrels of Abu Dhabi's Das crude from Shell, the people said. Nigerian oil has been bought on free-on-board basis and Das has been purchsed on a delivered basis for arrival at Indian ports in late October-early November. In its previous tender last week, IOC bought 5 million barrels of U.S. West Texas Intermediate.

This comes amid Trump's escalating trade war with New Delhi, but he now seems resigned to simply admit India has been "lost" to China and Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov earlier this week hailed that India, among the largest economies on the planet, has not given in to US demands to stop purchasing its oil and other products.

A combined population of almost 3 billion...

"Such tariffs have already been introduced, for example, against India - our particularly privileged strategic partner, a major consumer of Russian goods, in particular, hydrocarbon raw materials," the top Russian diplomat explained.

"We appreciate the fact that New Delhi did not bend under pressure and remains committed to the principles of free trade," Lavrov stated. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 22:10

Lone Senate Voice Criticizes Trump's Bombing Of Boat Near Venezuela

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Lone Senate Voice Criticizes Trump's Bombing Of Boat Near Venezuela

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) on Thursday criticized the Trump administration’s decision to bomb a boat near Venezuela over claims that it was carrying drugs, an action that was taken without providing any evidence.

"It’s hard to have any sympathy for drug dealers trying to import product into our country," Paul said in an appearance on Newsmax. "But at the same time, I guess, you might ask the question, ‘Where does it end? Are we the world’s policemen?"

Via Associated Press

The Kentucky senator said that US authorities wouldn’t bomb a boat if it were off the coast of the US and suspected of running drugs. “We all assume these people were bad people and drug dealers, but if they were caught off the coast of Miami, we would stop the boat. If they don’t shoot at us, we don’t shoot at them,” he said.

Paul said that the “reason we have trials and we don’t automatically assume guilt is what if we make a mistake and they happen to be people fleeing the Venezuelan dictator?”

He added that in the US, even the “worst people” accused of terrible crimes are entitled to a trial.

President Trump claimed that the strike on the boat killed 11 people who were members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang the US government has labeled “narcoterrorists.”

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and other US officials have said more strikes are coming and are not ruling out the possibility of pursuing regime change in Venezuela, which may be the real purpose of the deployment of multiple US Navy warships to the Southern Caribbean.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has denied the US accusations that he’s involved in drug trafficking and is vowing to fight if the US attacks his country.

Other Venezuelan officials have downplayed the US strike on the boat, claiming that the video Trump released purporting to show the bombing may have been a fake, AI-made video.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 21:45

A Stealth Fighter Pilot's Timeless Rules For Making Tough Decisions

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A Stealth Fighter Pilot's Timeless Rules For Making Tough Decisions

Authored by Rebecca Day via The Epoch Times,

Clear thinking and effective decision-making skills are two pillars of personal and professional success. But it can sometimes be hard to know if you’re making the right call amid a sea of options. Or maybe too much information causes you to forgo a decision, sometimes referred to as “analysis paralysis.” U.S. Air Force pilot Hasard Lee tackles these common problems and teaches us an easy-to-apply, well-rounded system full of effective solutions with his book, “The Art of Clear Thinking: A Stealth Fighter Pilot’s Timeless Rules for Making Tough Decisions.” And as an experienced combat pilot and instructor, no one is better equipped to teach clear thinking and quick decision-making than Lee.

His book offers a contemporary approach to timeless wisdom. The nonfiction work incorporates practical tips and methods that are immediately applicable to a range of situations, from business decisions to everyday problems. But before Mr. Lee explains just how we can learn to think better, he first takes us into the high-speed professional life of a fighter pilot.

Author Hasard Lee. St. Martin's Press

An Exhilarating Read

From dogfights during some of combat’s most hazardous conditions to training sessions as one of the Air Force’s most skilled pilots, Lee’s extensive experience flying the world’s most complex combat jets, including the F-16 and F-35, is highly impressive. Through his debut book, he helps readers see that the pressure and chaotic environments he’s lived through are highly relatable.

Several of the book’s chapters begin with anecdotes of some of Lee’s most high-stakes missions. These riveting, eye-opening stories offer a bird’s-eye view of what it’s like to be an Air Force fighter pilot in the U.S. military. And this unique author experience is what sets “The Art of Clear Thinking” apart from the rest.

He takes us back in time to some of history’s most historic battles, including the American military’s invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944. As it turns out, this historic mission was supposed to happen the day before. However, Royal Air Force Captain and meteorologist James Stagg, who worked closely with President Eisenhower during the mission, noticed weather radar had picked up stormy conditions that would directly affect the operation. The high winds alone, making the sea especially choppy, would make it tough for landing craft to successfully reach Normandy’s coastline. Heavy cloud coverage would also make navigation difficult for aircraft. A tough call had to be made. Troops needed to be instructed to either go forward with the mission despite inclement weather or postpone it to June 6, when a possible break in the storm was forecast.

General of the Army Dwight David Eisenhower circa December 1943. Public Domain

A little-known factor played a key role in the ultimate success of this foray: U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s quick decision-making abilities and ability to prioritize a multitude of pressing tasks. His mental toughness and skill allowed his team to adapt to the situation and make the hard, risky decision to postpone the operation for 24 hours. It was met with much criticism. Any delay gave the Germans a chance to find out about the planned attack. Despite pushback, Eisenhower’s strategic thinking and ability to take vast amounts of information and prioritize what was necessary helped put American soldiers in an advantageous position.

A First-of-Its-Kind Program

With many combat missions and flight hours under his belt, Lee ultimately became an instructor. Instead of limiting his teaching solely to flight instruction, he became part of a group of fellow instructors who developed a “first-of-its-kind program” that treated mental toughness not as an innate character trait but as a skill that could be harnessed and learned.

During the program’s development, he drew on his years of experience as a fighter pilot. He also incorporated lessons learned during his time as a boxer while attending the Air Force Academy. While at the academy, he was introduced to the concepts behind sports psychology for the first time, which he continued to build upon throughout his professional career.

The visionary program he helped spearhead was such a success for the Air Force that it is now an integral part of every pilot’s training. The book features several of the program’s lessons that are easily adaptable to everyday life. Lee has spent time teaching the lessons included in “The Art of Clear Thinking” to people involved in many disciplines, from business executives to athletes on professional sports teams.

Lee understands why this type of wisdom is accessible to humans from all walks of life. In “The Art of Clear Thinking,” he states, “High performance isn’t something that can be turned on and off—to thrive in the cockpit, the pilots needed to thrive in their personal lives.”

This mentality built for success easily translates to anyone who wants to better themselves personally, accomplish goals professionally, and live all-around more fulfilling lives.

X-35B flying over Edwards Air Force Base. Public Domain

Inspiration for Every Reader

Athletes and other performance-based professionals can take advantage of Lee’s simple yet highly effective tactics to remain calm amid adversity. Tried-and-true breathing techniques and resetting one’s internal dialogue are included in the text, along with an easily digestible section on the science behind this type of sports psychology-based training. The book briefly delves into the science of the brain, its chemical reactions, and how that affects us physiologically.

Business professionals and goal-oriented individuals can particularly benefit from the author’s section on Humans as Decision-Makers, which highlights the importance of developing one’s critical thinking skills as opposed to only relying on technology to do all of the forecasting that often comes with trying to anticipate market conditions.

The core of this book revolves around conceptual thinking. Lee helps you understand how to apply an integrated system of ideas to a problem when information is sometimes either too abundant or too scarce and come up with a quick, effective solution. This is a big reason why it’s such a well-rounded work on mental fortitude. Man is only as good as his grasp of concepts, and Lee eloquently elaborates on this important point of reality in his chapter Fast-Forecasting:

“When we rashly turn over our decision-making to external aids, such as committees or computers, we lose the ability to bring the full power of our brain to bear on a problem. We, in essence, have carved out a hole in our understanding and replaced it with someone else’s solution. If we don’t learn the underlying concepts behind that new information, then we’re blindly trusting that it’s correct. We lose the ability to quickly reconfigure concepts into creative solutions, which is one of the great strengths of the human mind.”

Assess, Choose, Execute

Many more tips, tricks, and thought-provoking stories are discussed throughout this entertaining and helpful read. The book itself is laid out across three different overarching sections: Assess, Choose, and Execute, which make up a concept fighter pilots learn early on that is vital to their success: the Ace Helix. This method involves assessing the problem at hand, swiftly choosing the proper “course of action,” then prioritizing tasks that aid in the execution of decisions that will help reach the goal or solution efficiently.

The book’s readability and layout make it an easy read and one you can treat as a guide you can come back to over and over again. It’s a helpful reference tool that aids in navigating life’s complex situations that require quick, effective decisions.

Equal parts practical wisdom and philosophy, “The Art of Clear Thinking” is a great resource to have on hand for a calm mind and reasoned thinking.

* * * Patriots, these handmade flags are really cool. Made by ZH reader John O. Pick one up and support both ZeroHedge and John's work. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 20:55

Top Secret Seal Team Mission Into North Korea Ended With Massacre Of Civilians & Zero Intel Gained

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Top Secret Seal Team Mission Into North Korea Ended With Massacre Of Civilians & Zero Intel Gained

On Friday The New York Times revealed what may go down in history as the single most ignominious fiasco of US special operations in years, or possibly even decades - a positively wild story which is going to cast a further spotlight on Trump and current and former intelligence officials and elite military commanders.

In early 2019 at a moment President Trump during his first term publicly engaged in high-profile diplomacy with Kim Jong Un, which included chummy summits at the DMZ border and the exchange of letters, a highly secretive operation by the US Navy's SEAL Team 6 ended with a group of North Korean civilian fishermen massacred under mysterious circumstances.

Trump as Commander-in-Chief had ordered a high-risk mission, utilizing low-tech methods to avoid detection, to insert the Seal team on the North Korean coast where they would install a surveillance device capable of intercepting Kim Jong Un’s most sensitive communications. It would be hidden from Congress and the public, and even government officials based on need-to-know access. It's one of those past covert ops which was never intended to see the light of public knowledge.

SEAL Delivery Vehicle mini-submarine, illustrative file image via US Navy

The Times report describes the mission's purpose as likely to give the White House a huge leg up as Trump tried to engage Kim on the nuclear front, to achieve hoped-for historic denuclearization on the Korean peninsula. "The objective was to plant an electronic device that would let the United States intercept the communications of North Korea’s reclusive leader, Kim Jong-un, amid high-level nuclear talks with President Trump," it says. But the report notes that the hidden surveillance objective may have had a broader purpose.

"The mission had the potential to provide the United States with a stream of valuable intelligence," NY Times continues. "But it meant putting American commandos on North Korean soil — a move that, if detected, not only could sink negotiations but also could lead to a hostage crisis or an escalating conflict with a nuclear-armed foe."

Essentially this would be a small-scale invasion and breach of one of the most militarized and paranoid countries in the region and on earth. It should be noted that it is covert operations like these which give autocrats like Kim Jong Un (or previously: Saddam, Gaddafi, Assad, as well as the Iranians) valid reasons to be paranoid concerning Western spies and elite operatives.

The report details that under the cover of night, the Seal team landed on a North Korean shoreline after they swam through freezing waters with untraceable equipment, operating completely blind and with no typical drone, spy plane or overhead surveillance or real-time mapping. Even their weapons and bullets were selected so as to be 'untraceable'. 

Apparently there was precedent for this, something also long kept secret: "In 2005, SEALs used a mini-sub to go ashore in North Korea and leave unnoticed, according to people familiar with the mission," NY Times discloses. "The 2005 operation, carried out during the presidency of George W. Bush, has never before been reported publicly."

Every aspect to the 2019 infiltration was ultra high-risk, NYT continues:

The plan called for the Navy to sneak a nuclear-powered submarine, nearly two football fields long, into the waters off North Korea and then deploy a small team of SEALs in two mini-subs, each about the size of a killer whale, that would motor silently to the shore.

The mini-subs were wet subs, which meant the SEALs would ride immersed in 40-degree ocean water for about two hours to reach the shore, using scuba gear and heated suits to survive.

Eight Seals would swim to the target and plant the device, but the mission began to dramatically unravel from nearly the moment they surfaced in the dark of night.

Illustrative: Ohio-class nuclear-powered guided missile submarine USS Georgia with SEALs undergoing training, US Navy

Given the lack of real-time intelligence and communications black-out, intelligence analysts had studied and monitored the intended landing spot for months prior via satellite, to ensure no North Korean soldiers or bystanders could detect the operation. But it turns out there was a fishing boat very near the target zone:

Every few yards, the SEALs peeked above the black water to scan their surroundings. Everything seemed clear.

That might have been a second mistake. Bobbing in the darkness was a small boat. On board was a crew of North Koreans who were easy to miss because the sensors in the SEALs’ night-vision goggles were designed in part to detect heat, and the wet suits the Koreans wore were chilled by the cold seawater.

The SEALs reached shore thinking they were alone, and started to remove their diving gear. The target was only a few hundred yards away.

By that moment, one group of Seals had made it to the shore, while another had stayed with the underwater small subs. Thinking that the fishing boat had likely detected the subs, which may have been exposed due to wake-movement or bubbles at the surface, and possibly underwater lights - a Seal commander at the shore opened fire on the boat.

"As the shore team watched the North Korean in the water, the senior enlisted SEAL at the shore chose a course of action," NY Times details. "He wordlessly centered his rifle and fired. The other SEALs instinctively did the same."

Upon inspection of the shot-up boat, all the crew were dead. They had just been unarmed civilians diving for shellfish. But to conceal their presence, the Seals punctured the lungs of the corpses so the bodies would sink to the bottom of the ocean floor.

From that point, "The SEALs swam back to the mini-subs and sent a distress signal." The report adds: "Believing the SEALs were in imminent danger of capture, the big nuclear submarine maneuvered into shallow water close to the shore, taking a significant risk to pick them up. It then sped toward the open ocean."

The fact that this highly classified incident is being leaked to the press now is significant in its own right...

The Seal team made it back unharmed, and US officials told the NY Times that a flurry of intense North Korean military activity was later observed by satellites at that same shoreline. Pyongyang never made accusations or statements publicly acknowledging there was a deadly incident, and the US gained no intelligence from it - as the listening device was never planted - and there was apparently never accountability. 

The whole episode suggests there may be many more such 'secret failures' involving special forces in recent history. Special operations tend to only be made public, and celebrated, when they are a success; however, such missions which end in futility and innocent civilians dying get covered up, often with mission overseers getting promoted. Pyongyang is certainly paying close attention to the Friday Times report.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 20:30

Nasal Spray May Reduce Risk Of COVID-19 Infection: Study

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Nasal Spray May Reduce Risk Of COVID-19 Infection: Study

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A nasal spray typically used to relieve allergy symptoms may help combat COVID-19, according to a new study.

An electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV-2 (round gold objects), which causes COVID-19, emerging from cultured cells. NIAID via The Epoch Times

People who received the azelastine nasal spray in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial in Germany were less likely to test positive for COVID-19, researchers reported on Sept. 2.

Only 5 participants administered the spray had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, compared to 15 in the placebo group, they said.

Spray recipients also had a lower incidence of rhinovirus infections.

The single-center trial involved 450 people receiving the spray or a placebo three times a day for 56 days. The trial lasted from March 2023 to July 2024.

Azelastine nasal spray could provide an additional easily accessible prophylactic to complement existing protective measures, especially for vulnerable groups, during periods of high infection rates, or before travelling,” Dr. Robert Bals, professor of internal medicine at Saarland University, who led the trial, said in a statement.

In a commentary article, also published by JAMA Internal Medicine, U.S. researchers Dr. Samuel Vidal and Dr. Dan Barouch said that the German scientists reported “promising data.”

Since the trial was carried out at one center and had a relatively modest size, further studies are needed to assess whether the spray is actually effective against COVID-19, Bals and his co-authors said.

“These findings support the potential of azelastine as a safe prophylactic approach warranting confirmation in larger, multicentric trials,” they wrote.

The trial was funded by URSAPHARM Arzneimittel GmbH, which manufactures the spray, and some of the authors are employees of the company.

In the United States, azelastine was approved in 2012 to reduce symptoms of seasonal allergies. It is sold as Dymista and is also available generically. Side effects include drowsiness and headache.

Earlier Findings

Some earlier papers have also indicated that the spray works against seasonal viruses.

In a trial carried out in India that involved some of the same German researchers, neither arm had COVID-19-related hospitalizations, but recipients of azelastine had lower viral loads and improved symptoms, the researchers said in a 2024 paper.

People who tested positive for COVID-19 and received the antihistamine had lower viral loads than placebo recipients, researchers, including some of the authors of the new paper, said in a 2023 paper. The trial was conducted in Germany.

Both of those trials were funded by URSAPHARM.

Scientists said in 2022 that a study indicated that azelastine reduced the effects of COVID-19 in vitro, or in a laboratory setting. The study received funding from CEBINA GmbH, a partner of URSAPHARM.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 20:05

Watch: Israel Systematically Flattens High-Rise Buildings In Gaza City

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Watch: Israel Systematically Flattens High-Rise Buildings In Gaza City

The war on the 'high rises' has begun, as shocking footage shows Israel's military has begun pulling down buildings one by one as part of its operation to take over Gaza City, through powerful missile strikes at their base.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has sought to justify its actions by saying Hamas and Islamic Jihad hide in the buildings, as use them to organize assaults on Israeli troops.

Widely circulating images show that large buildings in the city center have been completely collapsed into their own footprint.

And on Friday, Al Jazeera reports that more are being targeted, amid IDF warnings issues to residents of certain buildings, saying that must immediately evacuate the premises.

"In the past half an hour, the Israeli army has issued a forced evacuation order for people living in Gaza City’s largest residential building," according to Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud.

"We’re talking about a 16-storey building that houses at least 65 residential apartments and lots of department stores at the bottom of this residential tower," Mahmoud described.

Another angle of the collapse...

Palestinian residents are receiving phone calls telling them they have a very short window of time to get out of their homes, leading to fear and panic among civilians.

Previously the 12-story Mushtaha Tower (above and below) was blown up after Israel called it "Hamas infrastructure". At this rate it's expected that the entire central Gaza City area will be flattened.

The IDF called it "terrorist infrastructure" and utterly destroyed it...

Israel's military has also been regularly destroying tunnel networks under the city, as Hamas has frequently use these for guerilla warfare tactics. Hamas has been ambushing IDF infantry units by sending small teams from these tunnels.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 19:40

Top Indian Refiner Snubs US Oil In Latest Tender

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Top Indian Refiner Snubs US Oil In Latest Tender

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

India’s top refiner, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IndianOil), has forgone buying U.S. crude at this week’s tender, instead opting for Middle Eastern and West African crude, sources in the oil trade industry told Reuters on Friday.

At the previous tender last week, IOC bought as many as 5 million barrels of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude.  

But this week, the biggest refiner in the world’s third-largest crude importer bought 2 million barrels of West African crude, another one million barrel of Nigeria’s Agbami and Usan crudes, and two million barrels of Middle East crude, including one million barrels of Abu Dhabi’s Das from Shell, according to Reuters’ sources. 

Competitive prices for U.S. crude in an open arbitrage window to Asia have prompted Indian state and private refiners to accelerate buying of American oil in recent weeks.

A few weeks ago, rising prices of Middle Eastern grades opened the arbitrage window for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to flow to Asia.

Key grades from the Middle East, such as Dubai and Murban, have seen their prices rise in recent weeks on the back of strong demand for high-sulfur crude in Asia and reduced shipments of Murban.

As India’s purchases are driven by economics above all else, both state and private refiners bought more U.S. crude in August to take advantage of the lower freight costs and the open arbitrage window. 

The higher purchases of U.S. crude could help reduce the huge trade deficit that the United States runs with India.

With difficult U.S.-India trade talks, the Trump Administration has singled out India to punish as a buyer of Russian crude.

Indian refiners, however, are not giving up on Russian crude—they continue to seek bargain prices and are expected to import more Russian oil in September compared to August levels as discounts are deepening amid Russia’s constrained refining capacity due to Ukrainian drone strikes.  

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 19:15

Vietnam Replacing China As Key Link In Global Supply Chains

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Vietnam Replacing China As Key Link In Global Supply Chains

Vietnam is turning into a production powerhouse for the world as a result of the U.S. trade war, , according to Caixin.

For example, once a farming region, Bac Ninh has become northern Vietnam’s industrial hub, driven by Chinese manufacturers relocating operations south to avoid U.S. tariffs and diversify supply chains.

The shift began with the U.S.-China trade war and has accelerated as clients pressure suppliers to set up in Vietnam. “When the trade tensions began in 2018, one client suggested we look into Vietnam,” said Li Fangting of Mingjie, a Dongguan-based plastics maker. “After the pandemic, those suggestions turned into demands. Some clients said we wouldn't be considered for new orders unless we had a presence in Vietnam.” Mingjie now produces in Bac Ninh for U.S. and European markets.

But costs are rising. Industrial land in Bac Ninh is pricier than in many Chinese regions, and wages are catching up. Some firms now produce goods costlier than their Chinese equivalents, relying on tariff gaps that could vanish overnight. In April, the U.S. slapped a 46% tariff on Vietnamese exports, later trimmed to 20%.

Despite these pressures, northern Vietnam is emerging as a “world assembler.” Samsung, which has invested over $23 billion since 2008, anchors a cluster of electronics producers, joined by Apple suppliers like Foxconn, Goertek, and Luxshare. “Over the past few years, we’ve seen a surge in supply chain companies, logistics providers, and packaging firms entering Vietnam, following in the footsteps of their major clients,” said Anchalee Prasertchand of Thailand’s WHA Group.

Caixin writes that supply chains remain incomplete, forcing many manufacturers to import components from China. In textiles, 80% of yarn still comes from China, said Tian of Hechang Threads Dyeing. Furniture is more self-sufficient, with 90% of inputs sourced locally, though steel and panels remain scarce. As one factory owner put it: “In fact, the global center of furniture production shifted from Dongguan to Binh Duong by 2018. This industry won’t be going back to China.”

Even with higher costs, Vietnam’s tariff advantage sustains momentum. Executives estimate Vietnamese goods are 15% more expensive than Chinese ones, but with U.S. tariffs averaging 57.6% on Chinese products versus 20% on Vietnamese, the gap is decisive.

Chinese firms are also eyeing Vietnam’s domestic market of 100 million people. “Trade wars may be the spark, but going overseas is really about tapping global markets — not just the U.S., but also Europe and Southeast Asia,” said Niu Qiang of KCN Investment Consulting. “For Chinese companies, this is the true start of globalization.”

Automakers highlight the shift. Shineray Motors, which entered in 2018, adapted trucks for local roads and weather. Its mini-commercial vehicles now hold 30% of Vietnam’s market. “Now is a good time to lay the groundwork for the passenger car and new energy vehicle market,” said general manager Wang Lu. Giants like Geely and Great Wall are also investing, cementing Vietnam’s role as both a manufacturing hub and consumer battleground.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 18:50

Democrat Extremism Underwrites Trump

Zero Hedge -

Democrat Extremism Underwrites Trump

Authored by J.T. Young via RealClearPolitics,

Democrats’ extremism continues to underwrite Donald Trump’s agenda. Since 2021, this has been the case, and it shows no sign of stopping. Rather than bolstering them as an alternative, Democrats are giving Trump the leverage to pursue his aggressive agenda.

President Trump remains divisive. While his job approval and favorability ratings are higher than they were eight years ago, they remain low. According to Real Clear Politics’ August 28 average of national polling, Trump’s approval rating is 45.3%-51.5% for -6.2% net; on August 28, 2017, Trump sat at -16.9%. According to RCP’s polling average of Trump’s favorability, he is 44.3%-52.1%, for -7.8%; on August 28, 2017, Trump was -17.9%.

Trump’s 2024 victory was a landslide in swing states and states between the coasts. However, Trump’s win in the popular (below 50%) and in the electoral votes (312-226) was hardly historic. Nor did he bring home large congressional majorities: Republican control of the Senate (by six votes, 53-47) and House (by five votes, 220-215) do not approach past presidents’ majorities. 

Yet Trump took office governing like FDR in his first 100 days. Now into his third “hundred days,” Trump is still doing so. And this is a president who was twice impeached and once defeated: No impeached president has ever been reelected (let alone a twice-impeached one), and the last time a defeated president was reelected occurred over 130 years ago. 

How is this continued momentum possible? Democrats’ extremism is making them even less popular. 

According to a recent WSJ poll, Democrats’ popularity is at a 35-year low. This is no outlier: Other polls show similar results. Between 2020 and 2024, Republicans gained up to 4.5 million registered voters versus Democrats, who saw net losses in all 30 states reviewed by the NYT. And Trump’s 2024 victory was attributable to an overwhelming win in “fly-over” country: The 46 states outside California, New York, Massachusetts, and Washington contain 80.5% of America’s electoral votes; Trump won 72% of them in 2024. 

The issues that the Biden-Harris ticket lost on last November are the same issues that Democrats are insistent about fighting Trump on now. 

On illegal immigration, RCP’s average of national polling showed Biden’s last job approval rating was just 33.5%. Yet Democrats continue to challenge Trump at every juncture: They have tried to make Kilmar Abrego Garcia into a martyr; they have stormed ICE detention facilities; they have tried to jeopardize ICE agents’ safety by pushing to bar them from wearing masks.   

On crime, RCP’s average of national polling showed Biden’s last job approval rating was just 38%. Yet Democrats continue to challenge Trump on his push against crime: They have objected to him deploying the National Guard in Washington, D.C., despite D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser saying it has reduced the city’s crime; and they have threatened to take him to court if he tries to deploy the National Guard in crime-ridden Chicago.

The same anti-Trump intransigence has led Democrats to take similarly extremist positions on allowing biological males to compete against biological females (something Americans overwhelmingly oppose), to lock arms against Trump’s push to keep tax rates from rising to pre-2017 levels (every Democrat in the House and Senate voted against it), and for many, to object to his strike against terrorist-backing Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

Americans oppose allowing biological males to compete against girls and women. RCP’s average of national polling showed Biden’s last job approval rating on the economy – which would have been devastated by the tax hike that would have occurred if Democrats had blocked keeping 2017 tax rates in place – was just 38.8%. The RCP average showed Biden’s last job approval rating on foreign policy – to which America’s support for Israel has been foundational for decades – was a mere 35.6%. 

Time and time again, Democrats are choosing the wrong side of lopsided issues. In doing so, they are maintaining the margin between themselves and Trump, and they are not giving Americans a plausible alternative to Trump. No alternative means giving Trump all the leverage.

There is an old joke about two men encountering a lion. Terrified, the first man whispers to the other man, “What are you going to do?” “Run,” the other man whispers back. The first man responds, “Are you crazy, you can’t outrun a lion!”  “I don’t have to outrun the lion,” says the second, “I just have to outrun you.”

Right now, Trump is outrunning the Democrats, and the Democrats aren’t even making it a race.

J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left from RealClear Publishing and has over three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, the Office of Management, and Budget, and representing a Fortune 20 company.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 18:25

450 Illegal Aliens Arrested At Hyundai Battery Plant In Georgia

Zero Hedge -

450 Illegal Aliens Arrested At Hyundai Battery Plant In Georgia

About 450 illegal aliens were detained in a multi-agency raid at Hyundai's massive construction site for a new EV battery plant in Bryan County, Georgia.

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), along with ICE, the FBI, and other agencies, said the workers were unlawfully employed, prompting investigations into immigration and labor violations. This highlights the need for the Trump administration to crack down on companies that hire illegals, including imposing criminal fines. 

ATF's field office in Atlanta wrote on X that on Thursday, "A major immigration enforcement operation at the Hyundai mega site battery plant in Bryan County, GA, leading to the apprehension of ~450 unlawful aliens, emphasizing our commitment to community safety." 

Hyundai released a statement, quoted by Bloomberg, indicating it was aware of the mass arrests at its mega-site battery plant in Bryan County. Its partner, LG Energy Solution, said it is assessing the situation and coordinating with the Korean government and other authorities.

"We are closely monitoring the situation and working to understand the specific circumstances. As of today, it is our understanding that none of those detained is directly employed by Hyundai Motor Company," Hyundai said. 

Bloomberg noted, "Unauthorized immigrants make up an estimated 5% of the American workforce and the widening crackdown threatens to wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars in economic output." 

Recall that Hyundai received tax breaks and other incentives to create jobs at the battery plant. Yet, those 450 jobs did not go to Americans, but instead to illegals who likely sent some of their wages overseas.

Should Hyundai be held liable? Perhaps the Trump administration should get serious about fining employers who hire illegals and steal American jobs.

Related:

. . . 

* * * Patriots, these handmade flags are really cool. Made by ZH reader John O. Pick one up and support both ZeroHedge and John's work. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 18:00

Do Doctors Make Money Off Vaccines? A Look At Incentives And Bonus Structures

Zero Hedge -

Do Doctors Make Money Off Vaccines? A Look At Incentives And Bonus Structures

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

“Doctors are being paid to vaccinate, not to evaluate,” Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a recent video.

“They’re pressured to follow the money, not the science.”

Doctors administer dozens of vaccines to many children in the United States. Adults are also advised to receive multiple shots.

Here’s what to know about vaccines and payments.

What Does the Literature Say?

A review of studies confirms that some doctors profit from vaccinating.

In a 2020 paper, researchers found when analyzing three years’ worth of vaccination claims for five Colorado clinics that reimbursements averaged 125 percent of costs, making administering vaccines “financially favorable across the practices.”

Another study found that various providers in North Carolina, when receiving the maximum payment for reimbursement from insurers or the government, profited from vaccinating patients. Even if they received the minimum payment, pediatric and family medicine practices still reported positive income, according to the 2019 study.

On the other hand, other doctors say the costs of administering certain vaccines to certain people exceed the vaccine payments.

In a survey of 34 pediatricians, for instance, more than half said they do not profit from vaccinating, according to a 2009 paper.

A number of practitioners have also said they face escalating costs associated with vaccination, such as staffing, leading them to stop or consider stopping providing vaccines to patients with private insurance.

Reimbursement for vaccinating patients varies depending on whether patients have private or public insurance. Under a program called Vaccines for Children, the government also provides vaccines to doctors for free. It does not pay for related costs, but doctors can charge an administration fee that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says “helps providers offset their costs of doing business,” with the maximum varying by state.

A nurse prepares to give a COVID-19 vaccine to a boy as his mother comforts him in Denver on Nov. 3, 2021. Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

What About Those Bonuses?

Doctors can make extra money for vaccinating under incentive programs from insurers, as highlighted by Brian Hooker, a senior scientist with Children’s Health Defense—a group Kennedy chaired through 2023—and other witnesses during a hearing in July on vaccines held by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.).

“Some pediatricians can make upwards to a million or more a year just in those incentives,” Hooker said.

Asked for citations, Hooker pointed The Epoch Times to documents he collected from insurance companies that list available bonuses.

Links to those and other documents that outline incentives and are available online are provided below:

  • Blue Cross Blue Shield Blue Care Network of Michigan: $400 per child who receives a set of 24 or 25 vaccine doses on or before their second birthday.

  • Aetna Better Health of Louisiana: $10–$25 per member, depending on level of COVID-19 vaccination coverage practice-wide.

  • Molina Healthcare of Ohio: $100 incentive for COVID-19 vaccination.

  • Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield Medicaid: $50 per individual aged 6 months and older who received a COVID-19 vaccine by Dec. 31, 2022.

  • United Healthcare Community Plan of Michigan: Incentives for patients who receive the meningococcal, Tdap (tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis), and HPV vaccines by their 13th birthday.

  • Meridian: Up to $120 per child who receives the 24 or 25 doses by their second birthday, or adolescents who received three certain doses by their 13th birthday, capped at $9,600 for each category.

  • BlueCross BlueShield of Illinois: $149 for each child, if 63 percent or more meet criteria, who received the 24 or 25 vaccine doses by the time they turn 2.

  • Central California Alliance for Health: Bonuses for children who receive at least 24 doses by the time they turn 2 and the three certain doses before they turn 13.

The sets of vaccines for which providers receive bonuses are recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Dr. Paul Thomas, who ran a pediatric practice in Oregon, estimated in a 2021 study that he was losing more than $1 million a year by offering parents what he called informed consent, or detailed discussions about the benefits and risks of the recommended vaccines.

Thomas—who surrendered his license in 2022 after the Oregon Medical Board determined that his alternative vaccination schedule posed a danger to the public—told The Epoch Times in an email that he was forced to work harder, freeze salaries, and impose an administration fee on every patient to cover income he did not receive due to administering fewer vaccines than many practices. Thomas has said he was unfairly targeted, in litigation denied by courts that found the board is protected by “absolute immunity.”

People attend an American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) conference in Anaheim, Calif., on Oct. 8, 2022. AAP, as well as some other groups and doctors, have said physicians are not motivated by money when vaccinating patients. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

“It would be near impossible for current pediatric practices to survive if not clearly impossible if they were to suddenly lose half or all their vaccine income, not to mention the catastrophic nature of loss of ‘quality’ bonuses,” Thomas said.

Dr. Renata Moon, who sits on the board of directors for the American College of Pediatricians, said that her former employer in 2020 started tracking the vaccination rate for patients. She was unable to determine why and said she would not be surprised if they were receiving compensation.

“It is unethical for physicians to receive bonuses or monetary compensation for pushing the products of pharmaceutical companies. It’s a massive conflict of interest!” Moon told The Epoch Times via email. “Do they have the patient’s best interest at heart or are they focused on their bank accounts?”

What Do Other Doctors Say?

The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), as well as some other groups and doctors, have said physicians are not motivated by money when vaccinating patients.

“Pediatricians do not profit off vaccines,” the AAP said in a July 16 post on X.

The organization declined to make one of its experts available for an interview on the topic. When a spokeswoman was sent studies, including multiple published by the AAP’s journal Pediatrics, that show some pediatricians have made money from vaccinating, she pointed to an AAP webpage that states “pediatricians recommend childhood vaccines because they are one of our most effective tools to help keep children healthy and prevent diseases from spreading in communities.”

It also states, “pediatricians often take on significant costs to provide the vaccinations their patients need, and the minimal payments they receive do not always cover these costs.”

Among the costs, the group said: purchasing vaccines and storing them.

Dr. Todd Porter, a pediatrician employed in Illinois for a multi-specialty physician-led organization, said that he has not paid attention to whether he makes money from vaccinating children.

Doses of H1N1 influenza vaccine sit in a basket at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago on Oct. 6, 2009. Scott Olson/Getty Images

“I have to surprisingly side with the AAP on this one even though I no longer support the AAP on just about everything else,” Porter told The Epoch Times in an email. “As a pediatrician, my recommendation of routine childhood vaccines has nothing to do any reimbursement my office may receive and again I can honestly say I have no working knowledge of what that reimbursement would be.”

Porter says he has been motivated for the more than 20 years he has worked as a doctor to provide vaccines to minimize vaccine-preventable disease. He has never recommended the COVID-19 vaccines and believes the CDC and AAP did not provide adequate details around the risks and benefits of the shots.

“I have become a bit uncertain about the risk/benefit of each of the vaccines. I still would recommend these historical routine childhood vaccines, but with the growing vaccine hesitancy amongst parents I do not push them,” he wrote. “I also have stopped generally recommending the influenza vaccine until I see more rigorous data to show that it really works.”

Vaccination rates among kindergartners have declined in recent years, and a third of parents in a recent survey said they would be refusing some or all vaccines for their children.

Kennedy’s Statements

Kennedy has spoken several times recently about the payments for vaccinations. During an interview released in June with political commentator Tucker Carlson, he mentioned an article stating half of the revenue for most pediatricians comes from vaccines.

The Department of Health and Human Services did not respond to a request for that alleged article.

“And then there’s a whole structure where Blue Cross and the other insurance companies pay bonuses to the pediatrician ... and that’s why your pediatrician, if you say, ‘I want to go slow on the vaccines,’ or, ‘I want to have a little different schedule,’ your pediatrician will throw you out of his practice because you’re now jeopardizing that bonus structure,” Kennedy said. “And these are all perverse incentives that stop doctors from actually practicing medicine and caring for the client because they’re looking at the bottom line.”

Twenty-one percent of pediatricians told surveyors that they dismissed families who declined one or more vaccines, Dr. Sean O'Leary, the current chair of the AAP Committee on Infectious Diseases, reported in a 2015 study. A 2020 review co-authored by O'Leary found evidence that dismissing families “appears to be increasing as a strategy for dealing with vaccine refusal.”

A form dismissal letter offered to doctors by the AAP states, “It has become clear that our philosophies regarding medical care differ greatly.” The letter directs parents to arrange for medical care for their children elsewhere.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington on June 24, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

O'Leary and other AAP officials said in a 2024 report that there are ethical issues about dismissing families, including whether doctors have a responsibility to care for all patients who come to them, Dismissal, they wrote, “can be an acceptable option ... after repeated attempts to help understand and address parental values and vaccine concerns, engender trust, and strengthen the therapeutic alliance.”

Kennedy added in the X video on Aug. 8 that “we’re scanning every corner of the health care system for hidden incentives that corrupt medical judgment” and that officials had found “doctors are being paid to vaccinate, not to evaluate.”

He said that officials discovered that more than 36,000 doctors had reimbursements from Medicare altered based on the vaccination rates of children in their practices.

The video was released as Kennedy announced officials were repealing a previous policy that favored hospitals that reported the vaccination rates of staff members.

“Doctors should be guided by medical judgment and their Hippocratic Oath, not by financial incentives or government mandates,” Kennedy said. “That’s what this policy change is about, and it’s just the beginning.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 17:40

California To Spend $239 Million Turning San Quentin Into "Scandinavian-Style Rehab Center"

Zero Hedge -

California To Spend $239 Million Turning San Quentin Into "Scandinavian-Style Rehab Center"

California is spending $239 million to transform San Quentin State Prison into what Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office once called the state’s “most notorious prison” into a Scandinavian-style rehabilitation center. Construction is set to finish in January 2026, with the first incarcerated people moving in soon after, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

The Chronicle writes that the plan dates back to Newsom’s 2018 election, when he halted executions, began dismantling Death Row, and ordered transfers of San Quentin inmates. In 2023, he unveiled a full-scale conversion into a Nordic-inspired campus aimed at preparing prisoners for life outside.

Modeled after systems in Norway, Denmark, and other Nordic countries, the project emphasizes rehabilitation through work, education, and “normalizing spaces” such as a self-service grocery store, café, farmers market, and podcast studio. Prisoners will have single rooms, reducing San Quentin’s population from 3,400 to about 2,400.

“The holistic initiative leverages international, data-backed best practices to improve the well-being of those who live and work at state prisons,” said Todd Javernick, a spokesperson for the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation. He added the goal is “creating safer communities and a better life for all Californians, by breaking cycles of crime for the incarcerated population, while improving workplace conditions for institution staff.”

The state hired Danish architecture firm Schmidt Hammer Lassen and convened an advisory council of reform advocates, which recommended measures like making “good nutrition foundational to the San Quentin experience.”

Supporters hope the California Model will serve as a national blueprint, but critics argue the money should instead go to crime victims. Families of incarcerated people also worry transfers will send loved ones far from spouses and children.

San Quentin has already shifted from maximum to medium security, allowing in prisoners deemed lower-risk. Officials also note that closing Death Row reduces costs, as housing death-sentenced inmates can be twice as expensive.

The redesign includes three new buildings for media production, coding classrooms, a large multipurpose hall, café, and store.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 17:20

Quinn: WW3 Is Inevitable, Compromise Isn't An Option During 'The Fourth Turning'

Zero Hedge -

Quinn: WW3 Is Inevitable, Compromise Isn't An Option During 'The Fourth Turning'

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

Fourth Turnings never fizzle out.

They build to a crescendo of death and destruction.

Is there any indications whatsoever that we are not on a course towards all-out war?

How it started...

"We gave categorical assurances to Gorbachev that if a United Germany could remain in NATO, NATO would not be moved Eastward" Jack Matlock, US Ambassador to the Soviets 1987-1991 speaking 30 years ago.

NATO did, however, move Eastwards towards Russia, and the rest is history

How's it going?

Professor Jeffrey Sachs explains:

Now, we have the return of the most primitive kind of Russophobia imaginable.

So Europe meets, as, as you note, every two or three days in terror of Russia with these fools around the table, without talking to the Russians at all.

If you just watch these people, they don't know anything, and they don't want to learn anything, and they don't want to hear anything.

And especially, in Europe, the most desperate thing is, for God's sake, don't talk to the other side. It may be a little annoying.

And so we actually have a spectacle of grown people like Starmer, Merz, Macron, grown people that won't even have ... a discussion with President Putin.

And what happens next?

Dmitry Medvedev:

"The United Kingdom has sent Ukraine $1.3 billion obtained as profit from the use of frozen Russian assets.

This was said by the English idiot Lammy.

Well, this means one thing: British thieves have handed over Russian money to the neo-Nazis.

The consequences?

Britain has committed an offense, and Russia has, as lawyers say, a claim against it and the current Banderite Ukraine.

But considering that these funds cannot be recovered through legal proceedings for obvious reasons, our country has only one way to reclaim the assets.

To return what was seized in kind. That is, with "Ukrainian land" and other real estate and movable property located on it.

(I am obviously not talking about the lands of the new Russian regions, they are already ours.)

So any illegal seizure of arrested Russian funds or income from them must be converted into additional territories and other property of country 404. Or by confiscating the valuables of the British Crown.

There are still enough of them in various places, including those located in Russia."

The path has been set on the Fourth Turning - it's now when not if.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 17:00

The Power-Bill Crisis Keeps Energy Secretary Wright Up At Night

Zero Hedge -

The Power-Bill Crisis Keeps Energy Secretary Wright Up At Night

Weeks after Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Glenn Beck that the power-bill crisis would last for "a few years," America's top energy official told Fox Business on Tuesday that rising electricity costs remain his top concern.

"It's what I worry about most seven days a week," Wright told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo. "We want to stop the rise in electricity for Americans and reshore jobs and opportunity there."

The Trump administration is racing to restore and expand stable fossil-fuel power generation (see the EO), after parts of the nation's grid were left in a fragile state by the Biden-Harris regime's unreliable green-energy policies, amid surging power demand from data center buildouts - all in an effort to compete with China. 

In mid-August, Goldman analysts led by Hongcen Wei told clients, "We find that 9 out of 13 US regional power markets have already reached critical tightness this summer, while expecting all but one to reach critical tightness by 2030." 

Wei warned: "Critical tightness could lead to power price spikes and blackouts with significant social and economic losses."

By the end of the summer, nine of the 13 U.S. regional power grids have already reached dangerously low spare capacity levels, which are at or below the critical reliability threshold. This raises blackout threats and results in power price spikes during high-demand usage hours. 

This tightening is most evident in the Mid-Atlantic region...

The epicenter of the power crisis is in Maryland. 

Bloomberg suggested earlier that the power bill crisis could become a political liability for Republicans ahead of the midterms. However, the real-world example playing out in Maryland shows it's hurting Democrats bigly.

Maryland Democrats are pointing fingers at the regional grid operator. Still, it was their own party that spent years championing unreliable solar and wind while retiring coal plants, leaving the grid in a state of chaos - on the brink of collapse last month (read here)

Now comes the informational war used by both parties that will blame each other for the power bill mess.

Wright told Congress earlier this year that solar and wind subsidies have been disastrous for the grid.

Recently, Wright told Fox Business about Trump's plan to add "more energy to the grid."  

. . . 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 16:40

The Grifters' Lament

Zero Hedge -

The Grifters' Lament

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"We are the sickest country in the world. That's why we have to fire people at the CDC ... They did not do their job! This was their job to keep us healthy!"

- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

What a gruesome spectacle it was to see HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. take on a conclave of vicious grifters on the Senate Finance Committee straining to warp reality in defense of their mighty patron, the nation-wrecking pharmaceutical companies.

Do you understand how deep, convoluted, and grave the political sickness is?

Over the years, the public health agencies and “big pharma” had evolved into a symbiotic vector driving the nation into chronic illness. They allowed the population to poison themselves on a diet of corn syrup, engineered snack foods, and chemical additives. Result: epidemic obesity, diabetes, and many other illnesses. To counter that, they dosed everybody to-the-max with sketchily-tested pharma products while the agency employees raked in royalties and pharma got a get-outa-jail-free card in the 1986 National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (NCVIA) — legal liability cancelled.

Then, they all badly mis-stepped, conniving in the Covid-19 operation, a still poorly-comprehended scheme to punk the American people and enable mail-in ballot fraud to steal the 2020 election. First, there was Dr. Fauci’s years’ long effort to hatch a novel corona virus, Covid-19, in labs here and overseas. Then, there was the opportune release of the virus in 2019. Then, the pharma response to the virus: a “miracle” mRNA vaccine that was likely already developed in secret, even before Operation Warp Speed was acted-out to pretend that pharma just came up with it. And, of course, there was President Trump 1.0 getting hosed by his Covid Response Team (Fauci, Birx, et al.) on all this.

Thus, you have that battery of US Senators all paid handsomely by Pharma to defend the industry with hysterical obfuscation against the lone figure, Mr. Kennedy, striving to correct all that fantastic corruption. He retorted to their malign nonsense honorably, revealing their conflicts of interest, their cupidity, the bales of dollars paid by pharma to the likes of Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and the rest over the years, and their longstanding silence on the afore-mentioned poisoning and drugging of America.

Incidentally, to understand how this grift got so exorbitant, look to the unfortunate 2010 Supreme Court decision Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (558 U.S. 310). In a 5-4 ruling (by majority conservative justices, then including Alito, Thomas, and Scalia), SCOTUS decided that previous prohibitions on corporate money in election campaigns were unconstitutional because corporations enjoy legal status as persons, that is, as citizens, and giving money to election campaigns is a form of free speech under the first Amendment, which can’t be abridged by any law.

And so, the spigot opened on vast fortunes laid on politicians by corporations seeking to protect their interests. If anything went to warp speed, it was the Beltway lobbying industry. The Citizens United decision was a singular tragedy for our country. The legal reasoning behind it was specious because corporations, unlike real human citizens, do not have duties, obligations, and responsibilities to the nation, entailed in their citizenship. Rather, corporations have duties, obligations, and responsibilities solely (and explicitly in law) to their shareholders, whose interests are not necessarily consistent with the public interest. Why has no one noticed this?

Well, they haven’t and that is exactly where American politics went badly off-the-rails. The resulting accelerated corruption in the public health agencies of our government has been a disgusting side effect of all that, which RFK, Jr., has been called to clean up, a Herculean task. The most visible manifestation of that corruption is the chronic illness of the people — 76.4 percent of all of us, he told the committee, with eight out of ten young men physically unfit for military service. We’re the sickest nation in the world.

When the senators confabulate over “the science,” what they really mean is the armature of medical authority that has enabled the money-flow to their campaign committees (and eventually to their own bank accounts.) It’s that very scaffold of authority that has collapsed. Why? Because the medical authorities lied over and over about the Covid-19 episode, and especially about the vaccines, which were never properly tested, and were neither safe nor effective.

Your own doctors got paid extravagantly to push the vaccine. The so-called Pfizer Papers, collected, collated, and analyzed by Naomi Wolf’s organization (because nobody else would do it) showed the sloppiness of the whole process behind the vaccines’ development and release, and the pharma companies’ evasion of responsibility for the damage done. The medical journals lied about everything from the origin of the virus to the efficacy of the vaccine. The CDC campaigned against viable, inexpensive treatments for the virus. The CDC pushed the worthless, gamed PCR tests to jack up the case numbers. The CDC pushed the idiotic mask rules, school closings, business closures, and the vaccine mandates. The hospitals killed people with remdesivir and respirators, and got paid for it! The authority of all these parties is blown, especially the CDC’s — and these perfidious senators have the gall to hide behind this “science”?

What Mr. Kennedy is challenged with is sorting through all the official lies told by these agencies — the so-called “data” — to arrive at a comprehensible picture of what really happened. And then to inquire beyond Covid into many other pharma products that might be making Americans sick. Neither the politicians nor the people employed by the agencies when Covid went down want that to happen.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 16:20

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.8% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel.

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 30 August
The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 30 August. ...

24-30 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 63.4% (-0.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$155.87 (+1.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$98.88 (+0.2%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until the Fall travel period.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Tether, El Salvador Deepening Ties To Gold, The 'Natural Bitcoin'

Zero Hedge -

Tether, El Salvador Deepening Ties To Gold, The 'Natural Bitcoin'

Authored by Vince Dioquino via Decrypt.co,

  • Stablecoin issuer Tether has held talks on investing in gold miners and royalty firms, after already acquiring $8.7 billion worth of bullion.

  • Meanwhile, El Salvador bought nearly 14,000 ounces of gold for $50 million, its first central bank purchase since 1990.

  • Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has previously described gold as “natural Bitcoin,” and suggested in a separate interview that if a global “reset” were to occur, it would “happen in gold.”

Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, has reportedly been in discussions with mining and investment groups to deploy billions into the gold industry, according to a Financial Times report late Thursday.

The talks reportedly span mining, refining, trading, and royalty companies, following chief executive Paolo Ardoino’s view of gold as “the natural Bitcoin.”

“I prefer to think in Bitcoin terms, and I think gold is kind of a resource of nature and is almost like the natural Bitcoin,” Ardoino said onstage at the Bitcoin 2025 conference back in May.

Tether is also moving to deepen its role in the sector, planning to spend about $100 million more to increase its previous 37.8% stake in Toronto-listed Elemental Altus Royalties, a Canadian firm that buys future revenue streams from gold mines, according to a report from Bloomberg early Friday.

"Access to capital is one of the key constraints in the royalty and streaming business; Tether’s support is fully aligned with our growth strategy," David Baker, CFO at Elemental Altus Royalties, said in a statement shared with Decrypt.

He added that, "Since their first investment in June, Tether has been very supportive of the company and management," noting that prior to the merger announcement the firm had announced almost $70 million of gold royalty acquisitions in Australia and Liberia.

Tether is already among the world’s biggest private holders of the metal.

The company disclosed $8.7 billion in gold bars held in a Zurich vault in its Q2 2025 attestation report, collateralizing part of its operations.

In 2020, the firm launched Tether Gold, a gold-backed stablecoin backed by more than 7.7 tons of the precious metal, according to an April 2025 attestation report by accounting firm BDO Italia.

Tether did not immediately return Decrypt's request for comment.

El Salvador’s first gold buy in 35 years

Tether’s gold push comes as Banco Central de Reserva, El Salvador's central bank, announced its first bullion purchase in 35 years, buying 13,999 troy ounces for $50 million, raising the country’s holdings to 58,105 ounces, worth an estimated $207 million.

The central bank characterized the purchase as a diversification play for its $4.7 billion in foreign reserves, according to a syndicated report from Agencia EFE.

El Salvador has already accumulated more than 6,200 bitcoin, now valued at over $706 million based on current prices, according to data from Bitcoin Treasuries. Earlier this week, the country’s Bitcoin Office confirmed that it has moved its crypto holdings to new addresses, following security concerns.

These moves suggest that large sovereign Bitcoin holders, such as El Salvador, and major crypto industry names, including Tether, are beginning to frame gold as a complementary hedge, treating it less as a rival asset and more as a partner in diversification strategies.

A source working on Tether's regional expansion efforts declined to comment, citing internal policies, and instead directed Decrypt to Ardoino’s interview with Anthony Pompliano in August, where he argued that gold could be viewed as a counterweight to fiat, not a rival to Bitcoin.

In the interview, Ardoino suggested traders might choose to rotate into bullion at cycle peaks, given its 6,000-year history and scale as a reserve asset.

“There is time for everything, and I think that when [...] if the world will go to hell in the next 5 years, there’s good chances that part of the reset will happen in gold,” Ardoino said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 15:45

Akin To Damaging 'Brand USA': Bessent Exposes Cracks In Fed's So-Called 'Independence'

Zero Hedge -

Akin To Damaging 'Brand USA': Bessent Exposes Cracks In Fed's So-Called 'Independence'

Amid all the hair-pulling and teeth-gnashing over President Trump's 'firing' of Fed Governor Lisa Cook (for alleged mortgage fraud), the market seems increasingly complacent that The Fed's holier-than-thou independence is under threat.

For its part, the market shows no fear whatsoever about USA sovereign risk...

Perhaps the market doesn't believe the hype that Fed 'independence' is actually under threat by the president's actions... or perhaps, the market knows full well that The Fed has never been truly independent, and the temper tantrums being thrown by establishment types is merely the vinegar strokes ending the delusion that maintains The Fed's unquestionable omniscience?

First things first though, we need to know what's at stake and no one has described the shifts in perceptions of Fed independence better recently than Citadel Securities' Nohshad Shah:

RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS, GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN TECH INNOVATION, THE WORLD’S BEST ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS, BEING A MAGNET FOR GLOBAL TALENT…AND CRUCIALLY, THE RULE OF LAW WITH INDEPENDENT INSTITUTIONS…HAVE COMBINED TO ENSURE THAT THE US HAS BEEN THE MOST COMPETITIVE PLACE ON EARTH TO DO BUSINESS AND GROWTH HAS EXCEEDED MOST OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD BY A WIDE MARGIN…OTHERWISE KNOWN AS “US EXCEPTIONALISM”.

A core part of this construct is the independence of the Federal Reserve, and this remains sacrosanct in the minds of global investors. There is concern amongst market participants that President Trump’s recent move to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook could be an attempt to garner greater influence over central bank policy. Whilst the merits of the case will surely be analysed thoroughly by the courts, markets are uneasy about the broader emphasis of this Administration on Unitary Executive Theory…the constitutional doctrine that the US President holds sole absolute authority over the entire executive branch including all federal agencies, departments, and officers…and the power to remove any executive branch official at will.

Proponents of this doctrine argue it is vested in the President from Article II of the Constitution and that other branches of government (including Congress and Courts) should not limit or interfere with Presidential Authority, thereby ensuring maximum accountability…ultimately to voters. Of course, as with much of US public discourse, this is a contentious issue with critics warning that it concentrates too much power in one seat undermining checks and balances, risking authoritarianism. In the near-term, should the President succeed in removing Cook, he would be appointing two new governors (including Miran), which when you include Governors Waller and Bowman, takes him to a majority of four out of seven on the Board aligned with his views. 

Not only does this have an impact on upcoming FOMC decisions, but it allows Trump to re-shape the entire FOMC given the Board must reappoint all regional Fed presidents in February next year. However, there are several obstacles. First, it is unclear if Cook’s firing will stand – the President can fire a Fed member for “cause”, but there remains uncertainty around whether the mortgage fraud allegations made against Cook meet this definition: negligence of duty, inefficiency, or malfeasance. Friday’s initial hearing of the case ended without a ruling – we will learn more in coming days. There is also a broader executive authority consideration for the Supreme Court, which in May allowed the President to fire two members of the NLRB, asserting that agencies exercising “considerable executive power” fall closer to Article II authority in a boon to unitary executive theory…

BUT…earmarking the Federal Reserve as a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States” suggesting a carve out of sorts for the Fed due to it being a constitutionally exceptional institution with roots in the country’s earliest banking history. Interestingly, Justice Kavanaugh has written approvingly of the Fed’s independence in the past (h/t Brooke Cucinella): 

“To be sure, in some situations it may be worthwhile to insulate particular agencies from direct presidential oversight or control—the Federal Reserve Board may be one example, due to its power to directly affect the short-term functioning of the U.S. economy by setting interest rates and adjusting the money supply.” (Brett M. Kavanaugh, Separation of Powers During the Forty-Fourth Presidency and Beyond, 93 Minn. L. Rev. 1454, 1474 (2009)). 

So even with SCOTUS’ broader embrace of unitary executive doctrine, we remain in murky waters as to where this issue lands. Second, whilst Governors Waller and Bowman are currently firmly in the dovish camp, this was certainly not always the case…indeed when inflation surged in 2021, Waller was an early proponent for tightening monetary policy pushing for both tapering asset purchases and aggressive rate hikes in 2022. Similarly, Bowman’s stance until late 2023 was hawkish. 

The point here is that whilst there might be short-term incentives to be dovish given the backdrop of Chair selection, both are seasoned professionals with a track-record of public service…so if the economic growth and inflation picture shifts (as I expect), so should their monetary policy views. And finally, regarding the election of regional fed bank presidents…the Board of governors does indeed have an effective veto on appointments, but it will not be trivial to exert influence upon each of the 12 regional bank boards of directors, with a total of 6 per board (72 directors in total, most of them public representatives) required to affect the selection process. 

In sum, I expect this to be an ongoing saga to be played out in the courts in coming months whilst remaining a source of uncertainty and volatility for asset prices.

ANY EROSION OF FED INDEPENDENCE WILL HAVE UNTOLD IMPLICATIONS FOR THE US AND GLOBAL ECONOMIES…

...and this is starting to play out in market pricing…1y1y USD forward swaps are 3.02%, priced for a return of policy rates back to what most consider neutral…something I would consider to be a dovish outcome, given the current backdrop for the US economy (unless the labour market collapses in coming months)…and yet 10y10y forward swaps have risen to 4.66%, the highest in over a decade (chart below). 

This likely reflects a level of concern from bond markets around deficits (which continue to rise)….inflation (above target and at-risk of rising w/tariff effects)…and risk premium for Fed independence. It also serves as a reminder for policymakers that the economy is most impacted by the long-end rate not the short-end (10x multiplier for FCI). Whilst these levels are still within acceptable ranges, one need only look over the pond at the UK to see what happens when investors are perennially concerned about governments’ ability to manage the fiscal outlook…30y Gilt yields (5.60%) have been rising consistently for four years now and have risen over 100bps since July 2024 when the BOE started cutting policy rates from 5.25% to 4.00%!

Perhaps the biggest sign for US policymakers should be the ~13% depreciation of the US dollar against EUR this year, far outpacing what interest rate differentials would suggest.

All told, the risks of damaging Fed independence are akin to damaging Brand USA and the medium-term implications are likely to be wide-ranging and uncertain…not to mention the consequences of allowing inflation to spiral out of control. Inflation credibility has been hard won by central banks across the developed world, most notably in the 1970s. In their most recent fight, the majority have been unable to bring inflation back to target reflecting wide ranging changes in the global economy…most importantly the introduction of pro-cyclical fiscal policy (despite large deficits) and a partial unwind of globalisation.

This does not seem like an opportune time to lose control of this mandate.

But, what if The Fed is already un-independent?

No lesser authority than Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has just this day unleashed his sword pen in a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed, "The Fed’s ‘Gain of Function’ Monetary Policy", pointing out that the central bank put its own independence at risk by straying from its narrow statutory mandate.

In the lengthy op-ed, Bessent critiques the Fed’s post-2008 monetary policies, comparing them to a risky "gain-of-function" experiment with unpredictable outcomes.

He argues that The Fed’s over-use of complex, nonstandard tools, mission creep, and regulatory overreach have undermined its independence, credibility, and effectiveness.

The most notable aspects of The Fed's failures include:

  • Failed Forecasts: The Fed’s over-reliance on flawed models led to significant errors, like overestimating GDP growth post-2008, missing the impact of supply-side policies, and fostering inequality through a wealth effect that favored asset owners.

  • Economic Inequality: Policies like quantitative easing disproportionately benefited large firms and homeowners, widening class and generational gaps, as noted in Karen Petrou’s book: "Engine of Inequality".

  • Eroded Independence: The Fed’s expanded role in fiscal-like interventions, Treasury debt management, and bank regulation (e.g., post-Dodd-Frank) has blurred lines between monetary and fiscal policy, creating conflicts of interest and enabling fiscal irresponsibility.

  • Regulatory Failures: The 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse highlights the risks of combining monetary policy with bank supervision, which should be delegated to agencies like the FDIC.

Bessent concludes by stating that The Fed’s overreach has caused economic distortions, inequality, and a loss of credibility, threatening its independence.

It must scale back and recommit to its core mandate to ensure economic stability and public confidence.

Bessent's suggestion is that The Fed should simplify its toolkit, use unconventional policies only in emergencies, and undergo an independent review to refocus on its mandate of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate interest rates. This is critical to restore public trust and safeguard its independence.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 15:25

Q3 GDP Tracking

Calculated Risk -

From BofA:
[O]ur 3Q GDP tracking has moved up a tenth to 1.6%. Also, our 2Q GDP tracking is down a tenth to 3.2% from the second estiamte of 2Q GDP by the BEA. [September 5th comment]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). We left our Q3 domestic final sales estimate unchanged at +0.7%. [September 4th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.0 percent on September 4, unchanged from September 2 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively, to 2.1 percent and 6.0 percent, were more than offset by a decline in the nowcast in the contribution on net exports to GDP growth from 0.69 percentage points to 0.28 percentage points. [September 4th estimate]

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