At The Money: Tax Management for Investors with Bill Artzerounian, RWM (December 31, 2025)

There is still time to make some smart moves to reduce your 2025 taxes. You have to be proactive to take advantage of the latest changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But you better hurry – there is less than three weeks left in the year!

Full transcript below.

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About this week’s guest:

Bill Artzerounian is Director of Tax Services at Ritholtz Wealth Management, where he focuses on the specific steps investors can take to better manage their taxes.

For more info, see:

Personal Bio

LinkedIn

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TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro: Let me tell you how it will be
There’s one for you, nineteen for me
‘Cause I’m the taxman

Barry Ritholtz: It’s never too early to be thinking about taxes. April is only a few months away, but you have questions and we have answers. Let’s discuss how you can reduce or defer your taxes over the long haul.

I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money, we’re gonna discuss important issues for all investors about understanding how to lower their tax bill.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your money. Let’s bring in Bill Erian full disclosure. Bill is a director of tax services at Ritholtz Wealth Management, where I also happen to coincidentally work and have my name on the door.

Let’s start with the basics. Where does tax management sit in the hierarchy of priorities for, for investors. How does this look relative to things like asset allocation or security selection or even asset location and their own behavior?

Bill Artzerounian: Thanks for having me back, Barry. I’m biased. I’m a CPA, I run the tax practice here. I think about taxes all day.

But I’m a proponent of controlling what you can control. We can’t control the market. Asset allocation gives us. You know, we can run back tests, we can look at historical data. That’s very useful. Even security selection, that’s, you know, individual stocks are more volatile than say, uh, an index fund.

But taxes, we have a set of rules and we can, we can, we can define our behavior based on those rules, at least in the short term. We don’t know what tax law will look like 20 years from now. We have a set of rules for the foreseeable future. We have to act within those rules, but it gives us guidelines, and that’s where we can actually make a difference, because we don’t know what the market’s gonna do tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. but we do know what the tax code will look like, at least until probably 2028.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about tax aware portfolios. What are the core issues that investors can pull the right levers on? What moves the needle the most?

Bill Artzerounian: At it’s very basics. We have different buckets of tax assets. We have pre-tax money, like a traditional 401k. We have after-tax money, which is, say a brokerage account. And then we have tax-free money, which is your, which is your Roth account.

Asset location can be huge and we’re big fans of. Asset diversification and clients come to u  well versedin asset diversification, but not necessarily tax diversification.

Tax diversification to me means you have different levels of assets in each of these buckets, and that gives you a lot of flexibility when you need it. A lot of times this comes up in retirement. We have folks come to us and they stocked away money in a 401k their whole career. They have a couple million bucks. They feel great about it. And then we have to break the news like, “Hey, you’re gonna pay tax on every single dollar here, and there’s no flexibility in their plan.”

Every dollar that they distribute, every dollar that they need for the rest of their lives is going to be taxable. Whereas if you plan ahead and you can diversify those different buckets of tax money, that’s where that’s where you provide a lot of flexibility for yourself in the future.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about planning ahead and, and perhaps the thing that I find most fascinating, and I’ve been reading the most about, and I still feel like I don’t have a solid handle on it, is the Mega-Roth Backdoor conversion. Tell us what that is. What are the advantages of it? How do you make sure you’re doing that both correctly and legally according to the IRS?

Bill Artzerounian: Call it Super Roth. We can call it Mega Roth. It’s just a juiced up Roth option. In your employer retirement plan, let’s just use. Let’s just use 401Ks as an example. There are other employer retirement vehicles, but let’s use 401Ks.

The limit in 2025 for total 401k contributions is $70 grand. Now that can be employee, myself, contributing to a raw, uh, to contributing to a 401k, or that can come from the employer. Normally for a lot of plans, it’s a combination of the two.

Let’s say I’m 50 years old, I’m contributing $30K to my pre-tax, 401k in 2025. Next year, that’s gonna change slightly. We talked about that last time, but then my employer’s gonna kick in, let’s say 10 grand. That’s their match. So total we’re at 40 K, the remaining 30. If the, if the 401k plan allows it, that remaining 30 — 70k maximum minus 40k already contributed — that can be made on an after-tax basis. And then you have money that’s already been taxed in the 401k you convert that to Roth.

So now we have, we have 40K that went in pre-tax between employer and employee, and then we have 30 K that’s now in a tax free Roth bucket. So we started our discussion talking about tax diversification. This is a great way to do it. Now you have pre-tax money growing and you have tax free money growing.

And again, that’s gonna give you a ton of flexibility down the line. And even inside of those plans, you might want to structure the Roth money a little bit more aggressively because you know Roth money, imperfect financial theory is gonna be the last money you touch. So you might wanna be more aggressive in the Roth. If you have a bond allocation, you might want that in the, in the traditional or the pre-tax sleeve.

The mega backdoor Roth allows for these higher contributions. It’s a kind of an unlock for a lot of folks who are earning a lot of money. They want tax efficiency. A lot of plans are starting to pick this up.

So if you’re listening and you’re a high earner and you have some sway at your company, go ask your CFO, go ask HR. And see if you can implement the, the, the me, the mega backdoor Roth strategy.

Barry Ritholtz: And then what about the full-on Mega-Roth conversion? Do you take a traditional 401k? What does that look like when you convert that to a Roth?

Bill Artzerounian: The extra 30 K that I alluded to that goes in as in quote unquote after-tax contribution. When you convert after-tax money, you don’t pay tax on it. You don’t pay tax twice. That’s kind of a, a foundation of the US tax code. You don’t pay tax twice. Now, if you’re talking about taking money, you took a deduction on, that’s considered pre-tax money.

That 40 k of pre-tax money, if I wanted to convert that to Roth. That’s gonna be a Roth conversion and that one, that one’s gonna be taxable. That may make sense if you’re, uh, as an investor, you know, maybe you’re in your twenties and thirties and you have a long runway to retirement and you want full Roth money, that’s, that’s a great case to convert pre-tax money to Roth now and benefit from long term tax free growth in the Roth, uh, for, for decades to come.

Barry Ritholtz: What are some of the more common tax traps that you see around equity comp? Walk us through. RSUs, ISOs, NSOs, Employee Stock Purchase plans, et cetera.

Bill Artzerounian: We call that equity comp alphabet soup, Barry. It’s, it’s really confusing. A lot of folks out in the Bay Area or in other tech companies, they get employed by these companies, they’re like, here’s your package, and they have no idea what it means.

I think the first thing is just a, an understanding of. Of what you own and then an understanding of how it’s taxed.

RSUs are a little simple. These are restricted stock. Restricted stock is going to be paid on a stated vesting schedule, and it’s almost like a cash bonus. You’re just receiving stock instead of cash. Once you receive it, it’s yours to do what you want.

Options are a little bit more tricky. There’s two types of options. Non-qualified and incentive stock options, the tax treatment is different, but the way to think about it is: You don’t get anything for free. The IRS says, no, you don’t. You don’t get anything for free. So if there’s a difference in your option between what you pay for the share or your strike price and what the share is worth, there’s gonna be a tax component on that difference. We call it a spread or a bargain element, but that’s the big difference

At at the very basics, what folks that are paid in equity need to do is be proactive with a tax planner. I’ve seen far too often, uh, folks with RSUs or they exercise options and they have a big tax bill in April and they have no idea where it came from. Because in my experience, folks don’t feel stock. They feel cash. They know when they’re paid in cash. They don’t know when they’re paid in stock. So if you’re paid in stock and you recognize that as income, you’re not thinking about it. And then you’re left with a big tax bill down the road and you’re like, where I didn’t make a million dollars, I made 500 K. but then you realize, oh, that extra 500 K was stock, not cash. Therefore, I didn’t feel it.

Barry Ritholtz: What about some of the clients we have at some really high growth companies, Apple, Google, Palantir, Nvidia, they’re seeing their stock holdings go through the roof. What are best practices for those folks? How soon do they need to start thinking about managing capital gains?

Bill Artzerounian: Well, that depends. It depends how comfortable they are with the stock, both in the short term and long term. And there’s bias here, right? If you work for a company, in theory, you’re bought into what that company is doing, therefore you don’t really wanna sell the shares, but then you create some concentration risk.

When you’re, when you’re paid in equity, it accumulates. And if that accumulates to a point where. A small move in the stock is keeping you up at night because on paper you’re worth X and then the next day you’re worth X minus whatever, you might wanna diversify a little bit, and that’s where effective tax planning is gonna be crucial, because you don’t just wanna rip a bandaid off, you wanna strategically plan for capital gains based on certain limits.

It could be capital gain brackets, it could be salt limits last time on, on deductions. There’s a, there’s a very structured way to do this, but ultimately it’s gonna depend on. How comfortable you are with concentrated positions in your portfolio, and how much are you willing to pay tax to get rid of that concentration?

Barry Ritholtz: What happens with someone who not only is getting their income from a company, but they just have so much concentrated risk in that equity? What sort of advice do we give folks like that?

Bill Artzerounian: There’s a couple options. Number one, you could just pay tax on it. That’s a win. Especially at long-term gain rates, you know, our clients are are pushing 35, 37% on their ordinary income, but their long-term capital gain rate is gonna be 20%. They’ll probably pay 3.8%, which is net investment income tax. But that’s a reasonable rate to pay for all this growth.

You’ve won! Now create some tax sell, sell the capital gain, and help yourself sleep at night because again, if that stock moves 10%. It’s gonna be material to your overall net worth. There are some other mechanisms.

We’re heavy with direct indexing here, we’ve had a lot of success with the O’Shaughnessy team [now part of Franklin Templeton] on direct indexing and creating tax losses to use against concentrated positions, or maybe use tax losses against real estate holdings or other stuff.

There are some newer things. Bill Sweet calls this late stage capitalism where there’s this, there’s this slew of new products to either avoid or defer taxes. 351 exchanges come, come into mind where you take a, you take a concentrated position, you find a group of investors, you bundle it into an ETF. And you have a diversified basket now rather than a concentrated position.

It doesn’t necessarily solve the tax problem because your basis is your basis. You can’t change that. So if I have a million dollars of stock with a $5,000 basis, even if I exchange that for a, a diversified ETF, my basis is still five grand.  So whenever I, whenever I wanna sell some shares of that new ETF, I’m still gonna have a pretty big capital gains bill. But it does solve the diversification issue.

Barry Ritholtz: This traces back to real estate. If you sold an investment property and rolled into another one, you got to roll over the tax obligation. It sounds like the SEC is finally caught up with real estate investors. Tell us more about how that operates. If you’re sitting in highly appreciated stock, and let’s be blunt, this is late stage of the bull market. People are sitting on giant, low-cost basis positions. How does this exchange work? Is it work? Is it just ETFs? What else can you do this with?

Bill Artzerounian: There’s a slew of products on the market to solve these quote unquote problems. They’re not problems at all. They’re, they’re, they’re, these are, these are champagne problems.

But just like in real estate where a 1031 exchange looks like, you have a piece of property real estate, for example, you find a bigger piece of real estate. You have a capital gain in the existing property, and you roll it into the new property.

Again, this is tax deferral. It is not tax avoidance. Your basis stays low. And so what you end up with is you, you, you push the capital gain down the line. In real estate, and what you could do with liquid assets and securities is if you exchange and exchange and exchange your whole life. Then you pass, let’s say you die – my favorite thing to say is, “Nothing solves tax problems like death” but when you, you pass on the assets to your kids. And what you’ve effectively done is you’ve deferred capital gains until you die, and then your errors get step up in basis. So there are more mechanisms now.

To replicate what’s happened in real estate with liquid securities and other assets, and that’s, that’s allowed folks to defer, defer, defer. And then, you know, eventually we’ll, uh, uh, inevitably we’ll see a bear market and this will solve itself. But right now we’re seeing a lot of folks explore these options because we’ve had a hell of a run for 15 years now, and a lot of folks are sitting on big capital gains.

Barry Ritholtz: To say the very least. There’s been a whole new set of rules passed last year in 2025. Tell us what the most significant tax law changes were? What should investors be aware of?

Bill Artzerounian: The biggest change is what didn’t change at all, and that was actually tax rates. If the tax bill that was signed into law, we call it OB3 (one big, beautiful bill), if that was not signed into law by December 31st, or if there were no tax changes. Tax rates were set to increase by about 3 to 5% across the board, For folks earning the highest incomes, that would’ve gone from 37 to 39.6% and that 2.6% difference, that is unlimited. In theory, that could be up to six figures, seven figures, eight figures, nine figures, and that 2.6%. Is now kicked into every dollar that exceeds that that amount. So the biggest thing that changed is what didn’t change. And that’s tax rates.

The other changes that we’re seeing come into effect are a lot on the deduction side. There’s more strategy around tax deductions, charitable giving, state and local taxes, how to bump from 10K up to 40K for certain taxpayers.

For most taxpayers, we talk about charitable giving quite a bit. And those are, those are what we’re focused on is, is controlling the timing of deductions to time with income, right? Your deductions are worth more when your tax rate is at its highest than when your tax rate is lower. We’re trying to time charitable gifts. We’re trying to time salt deductions to coincide with our client’s highest income years.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned earlier, death solves a lot of tax problems. Turns out it solves a lot of problems. But, um, how do you integrate tax planning into estate planning? Are they really one and the same? Tell us what the thought process is there.

Bill Artzerounian: They are one and the same with totally different rules. Estate tax as a whole doesn’t come up outside of the most wealthy individuals, right? Right now the estate exemption is gonna be like 30 million bucks for a joint family.

But Income tax plays a role throughout life, right? And so if we can, if we can integrate income tax planning with estate planning, it’s a, it’s a win for these families because at those levels of wealth, those are gonna be the folks that are most sensitive to big tax bills.

One thing we like to do. That combines the two is strategic Roth conversions. A lot of folks that we meet with, they have enough assets to live on. They’re thinking about  generationally, how do we take care of our kids within the bounds of the tax code? Roth conversions will allow, let’s say, parents to pay tax now rather than leave pre-tax money to their kids. Under Biden’s Secure Act 2.0, there’s now a 10 year rule for. Inherited IRAs. These are both pre-tax IRAs and Roth IRAs.

If I have a kid, let’s pretend I’m 80 years old. I have a 50-year-old daughter who’s a doctor in New York, right? Her tax rate is gonna be very, very high when I pass away. She’s gonna have 10 years to deplete my retirement accounts.

If that’s in pre-tax money, she’s gonna pay tax at the highest possible rate on that money. Whereas if I convert my assets, my pre-tax assets to Roth, maybe I pay tax at 24% instead of her 37% rate. I do that on her behalf, and now she has a lot more tax efficiency when she inherits my money.

Barry Ritholtz: What should people be thinking about as they start to organize their taxes, not just for 2026, but looking ahead to 2027?

Bill Artzerounian: It’s about timing income, right? Again, think about this, over the course of your lifetime, or if you have kids over the course of their lifetime, when can we pay tax at a lower rate than we might pay in the future?

That’s, that’s a lot of our work is just timing, income, timing, deductions to take advantage of fluctuations in, in tax rates and in, um, in, in lifetime income. And that’s where, that’s where you have to look forward. Again, look forward rather than backwards, is if you can time these things. These are gonna be marginal differences over the course of your lifetime, but marginal differences that can then compound, they’re really gonna add up over decades.

So to wrap up, there are a lot of steps investors can take to minimize what they pay in taxes, not only on capital gains. What they’re doing with their qualified accounts, where they locate their assets and changes they can make to make sure their kids aren’t saddled with the tax burden. Speak to your financial planner.

Speak to your tax professional. Make sure they’re working together so that you check every box that’s available to you to legitimately reduce and defer your taxes by as much as possible.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s at the Money.

 

 

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The post At the Money: Tax Management for Investors appeared first on The Big Picture.

Newsom's Massive Fraud Scandal No One Is Talking About

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

Everybody's buzzing about that Minnesota Medicaid mess with Gov. Tim Walz. Some are even calling it the largest fraud scandal ever. If only.

Blue-state fraud is undoubtedly a problem, and Walz should be held accountable if he did indeed look the other way. But what happened in the land of 10,000 lakes is tiny compared to the fraud in California under Gavin Newsom.

Heck, it makes Minnesota look like pocket change.

A fresh 92-page bombshell from the California State Auditor lays it all out.

“This latest report was issued by the state auditor, and that's a nonpartisan position; that state auditor now puts eight state agencies on the high-risk list of agencies to watch out for, for things like fraud and mismanagement as well as waste,” Newsmax correspondent Heather Myers revealed last week.

“Here's a look at that 92-page report. Newly added to the high-risk list is California's food stamp program. If the state doesn't get the improper payments under control, it could cost an extra $2.5 billion. Also on there is the Department of Finance, which was tasked with giving out COVID relief funds. Critics say $32 billion of that was taken by fraudsters. Then there are infrastructure issues like California's deteriorating dams, and also the high-speed train that's already cost taxpayers 18 billion without a single section of track complete.”

But wait, there’s more!

“Other reports cite $24 billion spent on the homeless issue that critics claim the state lost track of. More recently, there's a report that says California cell phone users paid a surcharge for years to upgrade the state's 911 system,” she added.

Tallied all up, California taxpayers lost $70 billion to fraud.

But here’s where things get really interesting. While pressure is on in Minnesota to get to the bottom of the state’s fraud, California seems to be under the radar.

Now get this. Right in the middle of the fraud apocalypse, a new ballot initiative seeks to impose a one-time 10% wealth tax on billionaires' assets.

“Billionaires are threatening to leave California, and it's all because of a possible new ballot initiative in the state. It's a wealth tax. A healthcare labor group is behind this push, calling for a one-time tax on billionaires equal to 10 percent of their assets. And right now, it does not have enough signatures to get on the ballot,” CNN’s Abby Phillip reported Monday.

“These are big numbers, just to let people know what we're talking about here. Larry Page, for example, he's worth $258 billion. His estimated tax would be $12 billion. Peter Thiel, worth $27 billion. His estimated tax would be $1.2 billion. That's not $1.2 in your pocket. It's billions of dollars. So, I mean, should they or should they not?”

CNN's Scott Jennings torched the whole scheme; it’s about covering up the fraud.

“And it is not for the public benefit,” he pointed out.

“In California, the state auditor just found $70 billion in fraud going on in the state. The reason they need a wealth tax is to cover up the fraud. The hole in the budget in California is due to fraud. That's why they're trying to tax people." Boom. Panelists flipped out. Jennings doubled down. Why 5%? Why billionaires? Arbitrary envy tax to paper over Sacramento's black hole. Imagine handing more cash to the clowns who blew $24 billion on tent cities.”

Make no mistake about it, he’s right. Newsom is going to run for president in 2028. Something tells me that $70 billion in fraud on Gavin's watch is the kind of thing that won’t sit well in a primary, much less the general election.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 11:15

Oil Heads For Worst Annual Loss Since COVID As US Crude Production Hits Record High

Oil futures are gaining in early U.S. trade, but on track to end the year substantially lower.

As Dow Jones reports, the unwinding of OPEC+ output cuts, along with higher non-OPEC production, fueled oversupply concerns in 2025, while U.S. sanctions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine and more recently Venezuela led to frequent price spikes.

"The crude supply surplus will acquire greater transparency than was the case through most of the fall period as floating storage gradually finds its way into onshore facilities," Ritterbusch and Associates says in a note.

But away from the geopolitical chaos, domestic supply and production remain key...

DOE

• Crude -1.934mm

• Cushing +543k

• Gasoline +5.845mm

• Distillates +4.977mm

Crude stocks fell for the 3rd week in the last 4 while product inventories saw their 8th straight weekly build in a row...

The US Crude Oil Total Inventory (excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell to 422,888 thousand barrels in the week ending Dec. 26, 2025, lowest since Oct. 31, 2025... decoupling from the crude price...

US crude production remains near record highs as the rig count has continued to slide all year...

Oil headed for its steepest annual loss since the start of the pandemic in 2020, in a year that has been dominated by geopolitical risks and steadily rising supplies across the globe.

OPEC+ roiled markets earlier this year by reversing its longstanding policy of defending prices and raised output, seeking to reclaim market share as countries including Brazil and Guyana boosted supply and the US pumped at record levels. The producer group is expected to hold off on output hikes during talks this weekend.

A punishing surplus is expected to weigh on prices in 2026 - Global oil markets have been been oversupplied this year.

“The oil market is set to remain oversupplied into 2026, with strong non-OPEC production from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina outpacing uneven global demand,” said Kaynat Chainwala, an analyst at Kotak Securities Ltd. Prices should stay range-bound between $50 and $70, with risks over Venezuelan or Russian supply remaining supportive, she added.

Both the International Energy Agency and the US government see production exceeding consumption by just over 2 million barrels a day in 2025 and that surplus worsening in the coming year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 11:00

Somali Americans Face Audits For Potential Immigration Fraud

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration is auditing immigration cases involving U.S. citizens of Somali origin to uncover potential fraud that might be grounds for revoking their citizenship, known as denaturalization.

“Under U.S. law, if an individual procures citizenship on a fraudulent basis, that is grounds for denaturalization,” Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement reported by Fox News then shared by the White House on social media.

Such denaturalization actions are rare, and the process often lasts years. Data from the Immigrant Legal Resource Center show an average of about 11 cases pursued annually between 1990 and 2017.

Since taking office in January, President Donald Trump has made enforcing immigration laws a priority, including ramped-up deportations, and visa and green card revocations.

Federal authorities have in recent months turned their focus to Minnesota’s Somali population, alleging it is an epicenter for fraud involving millions in federal funds for social services. FBI Director Kash Patel announced Sunday that the bureau has “surged” investigators and resources to Minnesota.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) announced Tuesday that it has stopped all child care payments to Minnesota. Nationwide, payments from the department’s Administration for Children and Families “will require a justification and a receipt or photo evidence before we send money to a state.”

The Small Business Administration said it plans to pause funding to the state pending investigation of suspected $430 million in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) fraud, Administrator Kelly Loeffler posted to X on Dec. 29.

The House Oversight Committee is investigating an alleged cover-up of welfare fraud schemes in the state. HHS Deputy Secretary Jim O'Neill stated the department has “turned off the money spigot.”

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz responded that his administration has “spent years cracking down on fraudsters” and accused Trump of “politicizing the issue to defund programs that help Minnesotans.”

The Justice Department has charged nearly 100 individuals in Minnesota’s fraud scandal, with 85 percent of Somali descent. Attorney General Pam Bondi credited independent journalist Nick Shirley for assisting in the investigations.

The FBI began deploying resources to Minnesota early in the probe, Patel said, as the White House raised alarms about fraud in the Somali community. Officials made public on Thanksgiving their concerns over ubiquitous scams.

The Labor Department sent a “strike team” to the state to investigate fraud, waste, and abuse. At least seven federal agencies are also involved in the probe.

Trump has denounced Minnesota as “a hub of fraudulent money laundering activity,” and moved to end temporary deportation protections for Somalis, citing gang activities. Reports suggest progressive policies and “Minnesota Nice” culture allowed such fraud to happen.

State lawmakers in Ohio have requested an investigation in their state, warning that similar fraud schemes may exist there, and urging law enforcement to “arrest, prosecute, jail, denaturalize, and deport all Somali fraudsters” in a letter state Rep. Josh Williams (R-Sylvania Twp.) shared with the state Department of Children and Youth on Dec. 30. The letter was signed by at least 40 other lawmakers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 10:45

Trump Media Shares Pop After Announcing Digital Token Distribution With Crypto.com

Trump Media shares are volatile this morning, popping before paring gains, after the company announced plans to distribute a new digital token to its shareholders through a partnership with Crypto.com, expanding the company’s push into blockchain-based shareholder engagement.

Under the proposal, each ultimate beneficial owner of DJT stock is expected to become eligible to receive one digital token for every whole share owned, with the distribution anticipated to begin in the near future.

Trump Media indicated that token holders may receive rewards periodically throughout the year, including potential benefits or discounts connected to the company’s products and services such as Truth Social, Truth+, and Truth Predict. Additional details about the distribution structure and timeline are expected to be released in the new year.

Trump Media CEO and Chairman Devin Nunes said the company views the initiative as a new model for shareholder engagement and transparency, citing the advantages of blockchain technology and improving regulatory clarity.

“We look forward to utilizing Crypto.com’s blockchain technology and improving regulatory clarity to implement this first-of-its kind token distribution, reward Trump Media shareholders, and promote fair and transparent markets.”

With this move, Trump Media joins a growing group of public companies that have explored digital tokens as tools for investor engagement. The announcement reflects a broader trend among corporations seeking new ways to ntegrate blockchain technology into mainstream financial markets.

The token initiative adds another layer to the investment narrative surrounding DJT stock, which has remained one of the most closely followed and actively traded names since Trump Media became publicly listed.

By introducing token-based rewards tied directly to equity ownership, the company is offering shareholders potential additional value beyond traditional stock appreciation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 10:25

30 Numbers From 2025 That Are Almost Too Crazy To Believe

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

2025 has truly been a historic year. No matter which side of the fence that you are on, nobody can deny that we have witnessed seismic political changes over the last 12 months. Meanwhile, the AI revolution is transforming our lives in ways that we don’t even understand. But despite all of our advanced technology, we can’t stop the endless barrage of natural disasters that has been pummeling us in 2025, and hunger continues to spread all over the globe. Of course war has been a major theme from the very beginning of the year to the very end of the year. Humanity has been facing one major crisis after another, and people are steadily getting angrier and more frustrated.

Our world is changing at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking.  

If you always wanted to live in “interesting” times, you have certainly gotten your wish.  

The following are 30 numbers from 2025 that are almost too crazy to believe…

#1 As 1999 began, a Gallup survey found that 70 percent of Americans were satisfied with how things were going in the United States.  As 2025 ends, only 24 percent of Americans are satisfied with how things are going in the United States.

#2 In 1980, the fact that the U.S. national debt had reached a trillion dollars was a really big deal.  But now our national debt has surpassed the 38 trillion dollar mark and there is seemingly no end in sight.

#3 Globally, the total amount of debt in the world has reached an almost unbelievable total of 337 trillion dollars.

#4 In 2025, more than half of all of the nations on the entire planet were either directly involved in military conflict or were funding it.

#5 At the start of 2025, you could purchase an ounce of silver for about 30 dollars.  As 2025 ends, an ounce of silver will cost you more than 70 dollars.

#6 Crypto investors lost about $800,000,000,000 during the month of November alone.

#7 After all this time, the Department of Justice is claiming that they have just “discovered” a million more Epstein documents.

#8 In 2025, researchers in the United States and South Korea developed a version of the bird flu that has a 100 percent death rate in mammals.

#9 According to the latest National Customer Rage Survey, 77 percent of U.S. consumers say that they have had a product or service problem within the last 12 months.  That is a brand new all-time record high.

#10 Earlier this year, we witnessed 494 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater within a 30 day period.  That was about 4 times as many earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or greater than we normally experience in a typical month.

#11 Globally, natural disasters caused a total of $120,000,000,000 in economic damage in 2025.

#12 The number of Americans that are dealing with food insecurity has almost doubled since 2021.

#13 The United Nations is warning that nearly 10 percent of the entire population of the globe is now going to bed hungry each night.

#14 Approximately 1.2 million foreign students are currently attending colleges and universities in the United States.  How many U.S. students have been denied admission in order to make room for those students at our best schools?

#15 In 2019, you could get a cheeseburger at McDonald’s for a dollar.  Today, the average price of a cheeseburger at McDonald’s is $3.15.

#16 Since 2019, the annual income needed to afford a median-priced home in rural U.S. counties has more than doubled.

#17 According to a survey that was conducted by PNC Bank, 67 percent of U.S. workers are now living paycheck to paycheck.

#18 Investopedia has determined that it now takes approximately 5 million dollars to live the American Dream over the course of a lifetime.

#19 One study discovered that approximately 42 percent of Americans that belong to Generation Z have been diagnosed with “anxiety, depression, ADHD, PTSD” or some other mental health condition.

#20 One recent survey found that 70 percent of U.S. adults are currently taking at least one pharmaceutical drug, and nearly a quarter of U.S. adults are currently taking at least four pharmaceutical drugs.

#21 According to the CDC, an American now dies by suicide every 11 minutes.

#22 Approximately 20 percent of high school students in the United States have had a relationship with an AI chatbot.

#23 One recent survey found that almost two-thirds of all church leaders that prepare sermons “use AI tools in their sermon writing process”.

#24 Well over 50 percent of the global population lives in a nation where Christians are being violently persecuted.

#25 U.S. farmers are facing the worst economic downturn that they have experienced in at least 50 years.

#26 The size of the U.S. cattle herd has dropped to the lowest level in about 75 years.

#27 According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S. employers have announced a grand total of almost 1.2 million job cuts in 2025.

#28 The McKinsey Global Institute is warning that approximately 40 percent of all U.S. workers could potentially be replaced by AI.

#29 In more than 50 percent of the nations on the entire planet, the total fertility rate is now below replacement level.

#30 A recent YouGov survey discovered that nearly half of the U.S. population believes that a nuclear war is likely within the next 10 years.

The pace of global events has accelerated significantly over the past year.

It really does feel like we are building up to some sort of a crescendo.

We are living at a time of a “perfect storm”, and we just keep getting hammered by one crisis after another.

As a result, much of the population has become numb to it all.

Never before in human history have we been subjected to such an emotional overload.

When you are being pulled in so many directions emotionally, it can be really easy to give in to the temptation to go numb.

But I would encourage my readers not to do that.

It is when times are the darkest that light is needed the most.

As things get even darker in 2026, choose to be a light to those around you.

All of human history has been building up to this time, and we get to be here for it.

There is nowhere else that I would rather be than right here, and there is no other time that I would have rather lived than right now.

Don’t let all of the chaos that is going on all around us get you down.

You were born for such a time as this, and now is the time to become everything that you were created to be.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 09:45

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.19% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in November.

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.0% in November, down from up 1.1% YoY in October. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in November is a new cycle low. ...

As of November, 19 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-4.9%), Montana (-3.2%), and Florida (-2.8%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 140 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 5 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

A third of the cities on the list are in Florida.

There is much more in the article!

Bondi Vows To Hold Former Officials Accountable For 'Government Weaponization'

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a recent interview that she will continue to investigate officials in the Obama and Biden administrations over “government weaponization” after courts tossed federal charges against two high-profile figures.

Attorney General Pam Bondi (C)speaks during a news conference at the Department of Justice in Washington on Dec. 4, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

“At my direction, our U.S. Attorneys and federal agents are actively investigating instances of government weaponization nationwide,” Bondi told Just the News in writing in an interview released on Sunday. “This is a ten-year stain on the country committed by high-ranking officials against the American people.”

Bondi then credited President Donald Trump for allowing the Department of Justice (DOJ) to fix what she described as “damage” done to the agency as well as the FBI under previous administrations, saying they used “legal process and operations that were excessive.”

“They went so far as to serve search warrants that their own Department and law enforcement officials believed were excessive,” she said.

Her comments appeared to be in reference to evidence showing that some FBI agents did not believe the DOJ had enough evidence to establish probable cause in their search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida in 2022. Trump was later charged with illegally retaining classified materials before the case was dropped.

Evidence from the DOJ “illustrates that the FBI shielded political figures” under the Biden and Obama administrations “while pursuing conservatives for their beliefs” instead of “protecting Americans from public safety threats,” she told the outlet.

Under Bondi, federal prosecutors have brought cases against former FBI Director James Comey, New York Attorney General Letitia James, and former White House adviser John Bolton. The cases against Comey and James have since been thrown out in court, although the DOJ has sought to revive them.

Democratic critics of the administration have said that the Trump administration is using arguments about the weaponization of the federal government as a means to target Trump’s political enemies.

As an example, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in September that the indictment against Comey, which was on charges of making a false statement related to testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee in 2020, amounted to “malicious prosecution” that has no “basis in law or fact.”

Trump and conservatives have said the DOJ should be more aggressive in prosecuting former officials for various alleged crimes.

Bondi said her “Department of Justice takes government weaponization seriously.”

“That means protecting civil liberties, preventing election interference, and holding bad actors accountable. No one is above the law, even if they think they are,” she said.

Bondi also referred to a letter sent by attorneys of former CIA Director John Brennan, who currently works as an analyst for MSNBC, regarding subpoenas in a grand jury investigation.

“Public reports of a recent letter sent to Cecilia M. Altonaga, the chief judge of the Federal District of Florida, by John Brennan’s defense attorneys, seeking judicial intervention in any legitimate grand jury investigation by the executive branch, shows these bad actors are clearly concerned about their liability and want to preserve a two-tiered justice system: one for them and one for everyone else.

“No more,” she said. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 09:10

Futures Flat On Last Trading Day Of 2025, Silver Slides

Stocks are ending a third straight year of double-digit gains in subdued fashion as an expected seasonal rally fails to gain traction. Silver’s volatile ride extended to another session, with the metal tumbling after the CME hiked margins for the second time in three days. As of 8:15am ET,  S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% and well off session lows, after a stretch of post-Christmas losses pared the benchmark’s advance for 2025 to 17%, just shy of the 20%+ gains 2021, 2023 and 2024. Nasdaq 100 contracts were down 0.3%.Both indexes have drifted lower for the past three days amid a rotation out of growth and momentum stocks and into value and quality names in seasonally. Silver plunged as a run of price moves of 5% or more entered a fourth day. The dollar is steady as it heads for an annual decline of about 8%, the steepest since 2017. Treasury yields are ticking lower after Tuesday’s FOMC minutes offered nothing to shake expectations rates will be left unchanged when policymakers meet again in January, with further cuts likely later in the year. The only economic data on today's calendar is the weekly initial claims which printed far below expectations at 199K (est.218K).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mostly lower (Nvidia +0.4%, Tesla +0.3%, Microsoft -0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta -0.1%, Alphabet -0.3%). With a 66% year-to-date rally, Alphabet leads the group in 2025.

• Nike (NKE) is up 2.6% after CEO Elliott Hill reported the purchase of about $1 million in shares.
• Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) jumps 21% after the biopharmaceutical company said the US FDA has approved Nereus (tradipitant) for the prevention of vomiting induced by motion.

In corporate news, Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. plans to once again reject a takeover bid from Paramount Skydance Corp., according to people familiar with the company’s thinking. Among the board’s concerns, Paramount has yet to increase its offer, which Warner Bros. earlier rejected as inferior to Netflix’s offer. Michael Burry, the money manager made famous in The Big Short, denied betting against Tesla shares, despite calling the company “ridiculously overvalued” earlier this month. 

Investors have reaped strong returns this year in a market that has been powered by optimism about the vast economic potential of artificial intelligence. Of course, as Bloomberg notes, it hasn’t been a smooth ride, though, with traders weathering swings triggered by US trade policies, geopolitical tension and concern over lofty valuations. And while many expected a Santa rally, the year’s momentum faded in the final days of December, as traders delay big decisions until after the holiday period, having already banked strong returns. The post-Christmas losses pared the S&P's 2025 advance to 17%, just shy of the 20%+ gains 2021, 2023 and 2024. 

“After an excellent year in equity markets, and with positioning close to highs in late November, portfolio and fund managers may have been closing their bets and realigning them to benchmark,” said Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank. “Our base case is for the bull run to continue, albeit with more volatility and resulting in mid-single digit returns.”

While things remain subdued in equities, silver’s gyrations continue. Wild price swings are prompting CME Group to raise margins on precious-metal futures for the second time in a week. After an almost unstoppable rise, the two metals have recorded a series of swings in December and erased some gains as investors booked profits. Both commodities remain on track for their best year since 1979.

Elsewhere, Xi Jinping said China is set to meet its economic targets for 2025, with growth expected to reach “about 5%” even though in reality it is a fraction of that. China also blasted Western criticism of its most intrusive military drills ever around Taiwan as its armed forces appeared to wrap up the maneuvers.

The end of 2025 also means that Warren Buffett’s famed tenure as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway is officially coming to a close, as the 95-year-old hands over the reins to successor Greg Abel into the new year.

In Europe, the CAC 40 is down 0.6% while the FTSE 100 drops 0.2%, with both indexes set to close early. Bourses in Germany and Italy are shut all day. Mining and technology stocks are leading declines on the Stoxx 600.

Asian equities wrapped up their best year since 2017 on a more hesitant note. Most regional indexes are under pressure, with Hang Seng Tech and ChiNext leading the retreat. Taiex is a bright spot following an almost 1% rally. Several markets are already shut for the year, including Japan and South Korea. 

In FX, the dollar is steady as it heads for an annual decline of about 8%, the steepest since 2017, rattled first by Trump’s tariffs then by Fed rate cuts. The recent advance did little to prevent the greenback from heading toward its worst annual retreat in eight years, with investors saying more declines are coming if the next chief of the Federal Reserve opts for deeper interest-rate cuts than currently expected. The kiwi is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% against the greenback

In rates, treasuries weakened after of the final economic data release of 2025, with the 10-year yield rising 3 basis point to 4.15% after earlier falling 2bps. Applications for US unemployment unexpectedly tumbled to  just 199K in the week ended Dec. 27, far below estimates of 218K.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded near $88,800. The digital currency has settled into a range of roughly $85,000 to $95,000 following a crash in October that has put it on pace for a first annual loss in three years. After kicking off 2025 with a rally that was spurred by optimism about the crypto-friendly policies of the second Trump administration, Bitcoin was hit by the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs.

In commodities, silver drops 6% to around $72/oz after the CME Group said they will raise margins on precious-metal futures for the second time in the space of a week. Gold falls 0.7%. Oil headed for its steepest annual loss since the start of the pandemic in 2020, in a year that has been dominated by steadily rising supplies across the globe. Brent steadied close to $62 a barrel, with traders’ near-term focus on an OPEC+ meeting at the weekend, a bearish US industry report and American policies toward Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.11%
• VIX +0.6 points at 14.88
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1204.03
• euro -0.1% at $1.1733
• WTI crude +0.3% at $58.14/barrel

Top Overnight News

• OpenAI Is Paying Employees More Than Any Major Tech Startup in History: WSJ
• Drugmakers raise US prices on 350 medicines despite pressure from Trump: RTRS
• Xi Touts China’s AI, Chip Wins In Triumphant New Year’s Speech:  BBG
• Xi Declares China’s Economy Set to Hit 5% Growth Goal in 2025: BBG
• From battleships to buildings: Trump's name is everywhere: RTRS
• Bankers Are Gearing Up for Another Onslaught of Monster Deals in 2026: WSJ
• Meta created ‘playbook’ to fend off pressure to crack down on scammers, documents show: RTRS
• US Virgin Islands sues Meta over ads for scams, dangers to children: RTRS
• Meta tolerates rampant ad fraud from China to safeguard billions in revenue: RTRS
• World’s Richest Added a Record $2.2 Trillion in Wealth This Year: BBG
• Oil Tanker Pursued by U.S. Seems to Claim Russian Protection: WSJ
• Boston Went Big on Luxury Condos. The Buyers Didn't Show Up: WSJ
• Finland Takes Control of Ship Suspected of Undersea Cable Damage: BBG
• Trump’s Latest Venezuela Tactic: Revealing a Secret Strike to the World: WSJ
• Palestinian Authority Sparks Fury by Cutting Prisoner Payments: BBG

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Dec 27 Initial Jobless Claims 199k, est. 218k, prior 214k
• 8:30 am: Dec 20 Continuing Claims 1866k, est. 1901.74k, prior 1923k

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 08:58

Initial Jobless Claims End 2025 Near Record Lows

The number of Americans filing for jobless claims for the first time plummeted last week to 199k - the lowest since the Thanksgiving week plunge and pretty much the lowest since

Source: Bloomberg

Sub-200k levels are rare and go back to 1969 lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing jobless claims also dipped last week and is below the 1.9 million Maginot Line...

Source: Bloomberg

The 'no hire, no fire, no quits' labor market continues.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 08:40

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 199,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 218,750.

Michael 'Big Short' Burry Reveals He "Is Not Short" Tesla

"Big Short" investor Michael Burry revealed on X that he is not shorting Tesla stock, despite calling Elon Musk's car, robotics, battery storage, and AI company "ridiculously overvalued" in a separate post.

Early Wednesday morning, Burry posted on X about a prior credit default swap trade he made with Bill Ackman. In response, an X user asked, "Would you short Tesla here?"

Burry replied: "I am not short."

On Tuesday, Burry posted a screenshot on X of a Bloomberg article covering Tesla delivery estimates from sell-side analysts that showed continued gloom. He added, "Tesla is ridiculously overvalued."

Burry may be correct on valuation, but many investors appear to be looking beyond near-term vehicle deliveries and instead focusing on robotaxis, humanoid robots, AI, and battery storage.

In late November, Burry deregistered his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, with the Securities and Exchange Commission, moving his trading into stealth mode after criticism from X users.

Michael Bury is arguably the worst investor of our generation. Here are 12 of his most smooth brained predictions.

Jan 2017 – Predicted a global financial collapse and WW3 were imminent.

Sep 2019 – Claimed index funds were the next CDOs, ready to implode like 2008.

Dec 2020 –… pic.twitter.com/KyWEyWBe6J

— RJC (@RJCcapital) November 12, 2025

"I am still running my money and active in markets," Burry said at the time, later telling a Bloomberg reporter that he was managing capital only for "friends and family."

Tesla shares are up 12.5% year to date as of Tuesday's close. The stock has broken above a four-year lateral trading range, with $400 now the key level to hold.

Recall that Burry previously wrote, "On to much better things Nov 25th," which, for now, appears to include not shorting Tesla.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 08:25

ByteDance Plans $14 Billion Nvidia H200 AI Chip Buying Spree As Computing Demand Soars

ByteDance plans to purchase 100 billion yuan ($14 billion) in AI chips in 2026, up from 85 billion yuan in 2025, with the bulk of spending directed toward Nvidia hardware, according to the South China Morning Post. The plan hinges on Beijing approving sales of Nvidia’s H200 GPUs in China. If approval is granted, Nvidia would need to scale up production of the China-tailored H200 with its manufacturing partner, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company).

The Trump administration recently authorized exports of H200 AI chips to China under a controlled licensing rule, marking a significant shift from prior export curbs. Despite U.S. approval for exports, Beijing has not yet formally approved purchases of H200s by Chinese firms, and reports indicate that access may be restricted or that imports of AI chips may be discouraged to protect its domestic semiconductor industry.

SCMP reports that ByteDance is planning a massive AI capex push, with H200-related spending in the neighborhood of $14 billion. This comes despite the company operating a 1,000-person internal chip design team, which has made progress on a new processor but has not yet matched Nvidia’s performance.

Demand for computing power is surging across TikTok, Douyin, its cloud unit Volcano Engine, and its large language models, driving the need for more advanced chips.

Doubao, ByteDance’s chatbot, now processes more than 50 trillion tokens daily, up from 4 trillion in late 2024, while Volcano Engine serves over 100 enterprise clients and will be a top AI cloud partner for China Central Television’s Spring Festival Gala.

In a separate report, Reuters said Chinese technology companies have shown strong interest in Nvidia’s second-most powerful AI chip and hope shipments can begin before the Lunar New Year.

Reuters also noted that Nvidia holds about 700,000 H200 AI chips in inventory, while Chinese technology firms have ordered more than 2 million units for next year, prompting Nvidia to ask TSMC to increase production.

Beijing now faces a strategic balancing act: ensuring its tech giants use best-in-class chips to compete in the AI race against the West, while simultaneously promoting the adoption of domestic alternatives, including products from Huawei Technologies’ Ascend unit, Moore Threads Technology, MetaX Integrated Circuits, and Cambricon Technologies.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 07:45

DOE Orders Indiana Coal Units Totaling More Than 950 MW To Run Past Retirement Dates

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

The U.S. Department of Energy on Dec. 23 ordered Northern Indiana Public Service Co., a division of NiSource, and CenterPoint Energy to continue running three coal-fired units in Indiana, totaling more than 950 MW, beyond their planned retirement at the end of the month.

DOE contends that portions of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator face an emergency situation, citing studies by the grid operator and the results of recent capacity auctions that indicate tightening supply conditions.

“The emergency conditions resulting from increasing demand and shortage from accelerated retirement of generation facilities will continue in the near term and are also likely to continue in subsequent years,” DOE said in its 90-day emergency orders to MISO, NIPSCO and CenterPoint.

However, MISO reviewed NIPSCO’s plan to retire the coal-fired units at its Schahfer power plant and CenterPoint’s proposal to shutter its F.B. Culley Unit 2, all of which were scheduled to occur on Dec. 31.

DOE has issued a string of last-minute emergency orders under the Federal Power Act’s Section 202(c) to keep power plants in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Washington from retiring. Those generating units total about 3.1 GW.

The latest emergency orders were issued a day after the Trump administration froze work on five offshore wind farms totaling 7 GW.

The Indiana units must run until March 23, although DOE can extend the orders, as it has done for the Campbell power plant in Michigan and the Eddystone units near Philadelphia.

Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana, a ratepayer advocacy group, contends the DOE orders will drive up electricity bills.

“The federal government’s order to force extremely expensive and unreliable coal units to stay open will result in higher bills for Hoosiers who are already reeling from record-high rate increases in 2025,” Ben Inskeep, CAC program director, said in a statement.

The DOE’s emergency orders for the Campbell power plant are being challenged in federal appeals court by Michigan’s attorney general, Minnesota and Illinois as well as a coalition of advocacy groups led by the Sierra Club and Earthjustice.

In a Dec. 19 court brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, the advocacy groups said DOE failed to show MISO faces an energy emergency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 07:20

My morning train WFH reads:

• The Unexpected Winner of Rising American Tariffs Is Mexico: Its exports to the U.S. have surged since President Trump imposed new duties on countries this year. (Wall Street Journal)

• Earth Is Running Out of Sand … Which Is, You Know, Pretty Concerning: Sand is the second most-used resource after water, but it’s unregulated and ripping environments apart. (Popular Mechanics) see also A huge cache of critical minerals found in Utah may be the largest in the US: The discovery could reshape the clean energy supply chain. (Grist)

• Car Payments Now Average More Than $750 a Month. Enter the 100-Month Car Loan. This fall, typical new car broke $50,000 barrier; ‘We don’t have $300 monthly payments any longer.’ (Wall Street Journal)

• Is the Federal Reserve truly independent? Who will be chosen as the chair of the Federal Reserve? (Washington Post)

• New York’s Congestion Pricing Is Working. Five Charts Show How: Congestion pricing is working as planned, with a significant drop in pollution and traffic declining by 11% in the tolled zone. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is poised to beat its target of generating $500 million of revenue from the program after expenses. Despite initial concerns, the business impact in the district doesn’t appear to be as onerous as some had feared, with a 3.4% increase in visitors and a 6.3% boost in sales-tax revenue. (CityLab)

• The Santa Presidency: Trying to fix the economy by handing out cash. (The Atlantic)

• How diamonds are powering a new quantum revolution: By inserting tiny imperfections into the stones, scientists open up possibilities in computing, encryption, and sensors. (Financial Times)

• The Nordic diet can help you sleep better and live longer: The Mediterranean diet’s colder-climate cousin comes with the same health benefits thanks to its combination of anti-inflammatory- and antioxidant-rich foods. (National Geographic)

• Here Are 5 Wars Trump Started or Expanded in 2025: The U.S. military is fighting or preparing to fight in more countries than it was when the self-proclaimed “peace president” took office. (Reason) see also 25 Worst Villains of the Trump Admin: This most difficult part of this exercise was only picking 25. (Meidas+)

• The intellect of LeBron James: As the NBA great nears retirement he shows how the mind works. (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

 

Almost no jobs have been added to the American economy since April 2025; 710,000 more people are unemployed since November 2024.

Source: Robert Reich

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 New Year’s Eve AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Brits Want The Poles To Contain Russia In The Baltic

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The Polish Defense Minister announced in late November that his country will buy three A26 Blekinge-class diesel-electric submarines from Sweden as part of a deal estimated to be worth a little less than €2.5 billion.

This comes just several months after their first joint exercise, which presaged closer cooperation against Russia in the Baltic, and also follows reported British lobbying for Sweden over other competing bidders since one of its defense companies is expected to profit from this deal.

Although the US is Poland’s closest partner, with which it’s working hand-in-hand to geostrategically re-engineer Europe by facilitating the revival of Poland’s long-lost Great Power status simultaneously with counteracting Germany’s plans to federalize the EU, the Brits are arguably its second-closest one. This was confirmed by the creation of their de facto trilateral alliance with Ukraine exactly one week before the special operation started. They then conspired to sabotage that spring’s peace talks with Russia.

Last summer, it was assessed that “The UK Aims To Entrench Its Influence In Estonia In Order To Lead The Arctic-Baltic Front”, which preceded “SVR Once Again Warning About A British-Ukrainian False Flag Provocation At Sea” a month later.

Then at the start of fall, Scandinavia experienced a Russian drone scare that was likely a series of false flags for justifying a potential crackdown on Russia’s shadow fleet in the Baltic, which is already under pressure.

Such a move could serve to greatly escalate tensions.

That hasn’t yet happened due to Trump once again escalating against Russia in mid-October and then just as unexpectedly pushing for peace a month later.

This made such a provocation redundant and then reduced the likeliness that Trump would fall for it after he soured on the Europeans yet again throughout the ongoing peace process that he abruptly revived. Instead of staging a false flag provocation at sea, the Brits were likely the ones who leaked the Witkoff-Ushakov call, which intended to discredit this process.

Regardless of whether or not Albion employs any more of its infamous perfidy, it’s nevertheless doing what’s needed to ensure its regional influence in the Arctic, Baltic, and Central Europe after the Ukrainian Conflict ends. Its interests in the Arctic are advanced through its base in Estonia, which also enables it to exert influence over the northern Baltic Sea, while its interests in the rest of that sea and Central Europe are advanced through its de facto alliance with Poland.

This takes the form of bilateral cooperation on Ukraine as well as the latest opportunity of indirectly cooperating through Poland’s new submarine deal with Sweden as was earlier explained. From the UK’s strategic perspective, facilitating closer cooperation between Poland and Sweden in the Baltic helps to contain Russia there, the shared goal of which is furthered by Poland’s new “SAFE Baltic” program that expands the scope of its naval activity and aims to streamline decisions on the use of force at sea.

Crucially, some of the €44 billion in loans that Poland just received from the EU’s €150 billion “Security Action For Europe” program (SAFE, which is part of the “ReArm Europe Plan”), will go towards the “SAFE Baltic” program.

The precedent established by Poland’s submarine deal with Sweden could see the UK lobbying for more such deals from which its own companies will profit.

Therefore, Poland’s rise as a Baltic naval power will be backed by the UK, which hopes that this will tighten Russia’s containment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 06:30

How China's Rare Earth Stranglehold Is Unleashing American Innovation

Authored by Owen Evans via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The West may have found an unexpected way to chip away at communist China’s dominance in the production of critical minerals: extracting metals from oil wells, waste streams, and discarded electronics in an attempt to scale up processing technologies at home.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Jeff Fitlow, James Tour’s Lab/Rice University, John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Instead of waiting years for new mines to open, a wave of startups is turning to existing resources to recover metals that Beijing has controlled for decades.

“Chevron’s wells in just three [Texas] counties can actually produce the world supply of rhodium,” Eric Herrera, CEO of MaverickX, recently told The Epoch Times.

Rhodium is the world’s most valuable precious metal, prized for its ability to neutralize toxic emissions.

It sits alongside a wider class of materials that make up the hidden components in smartphones, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and even weapons.

Geostrategic Weaponized Tools

Rare-earth elements such as neodymium and dysprosium are not actually rare. They are abundant but difficult to separate, while minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and tungsten are deemed “critical” because modern economies and defense systems cannot function without them.

Currently, China controls roughly 90 percent of global capacity for the processing, smelting, and separation of all such materials, as well as for the manufacturing of magnetic materials.

This means that while the United States, Australia, Brazil, India, and parts of Africa are racing to establish new mines, most of their concentrates will still have to travel to Chinese refineries.

Beijing knows the leverage this monopoly provides and used it most recently during a trade spat with the United States by restricting exports of rare earths, germanium, and other critical materials this year.

In 2010, China cut off rare-earth exports to Japan for about two months during a territorial dispute.

Meanwhile, Western companies are seeking to confront China’s processing advantage by leapfrogging it.

A view of the China Rare Earth Group processing plant in Longnan County, Jiangxi Province, China, on Nov. 20, 2025. As countries race to chip away at communist China’s dominance in critical minerals, startups are turning to extracting metals from oil wells, waste streams, and discarded electronics to recover materials long controlled by Beijing. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images Replacing China

Herrera’s company is developing methods to recover more metal from existing ore and waste, juicing rocks and discarded electronics for all they are worth.

He told The Epoch Times that he also believes that part of the solution lies under American oil fields.

He said his process can use oil wells to yield not only rhodium, but also titanium, nickel, vanadium, cobalt, copper, and more.

“The oil here in Texas is 19,000 feet deep, about 110 stages,“ he said. ”Each stage has about 110,000 gallons or 20,000 gallons of water to use that’s already permitted, that’s already set up, and the infrastructure is already deployed.”

“All we have to do is add our chemical to take the metals out, and then separate the chemicals. ... That’s much, much faster, much cheaper as well,” he said.

Herrera said the oil industry can also move more quickly than traditional mining operations. For major companies, it takes at least five to 10 years for a new technology to reach a mine site.

It also uses existing infrastructure. Moreover, unlike a mining project, a well can be shut down with minimal disruption, whereas killing a copper mine is far more consequential, he said.

That speed, Herrera said, may allow Western companies to compete with China’s processing advantage in a “slow and steady” way.

“I don’t think it’s going to happen all at once,“ he said. ”I think it’ll be subtle, a couple of wells first, more wells, then fields, then entire plains of oil, all of those will have to be going at full capacity to take it away from China.”

“We’re not at that level yet, I think in a couple of years we can get to that level, and if we all do it at once, then yes, then China would absolutely respond,” he said, noting that the same technology could be deployed in other major countries with metal-rich geology, including Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia, whose hot shales are known to contain extractable uranium.

Eric Herrera, CEO of MaverickX, at a research expedition at the Antarctic on Dec. 9, 2025. Herrera’s company is developing methods to recover more metal from existing ore and waste, juicing rocks and discarded electronics for all they are worth. Courtesy of MaverickX Can ‘Prevent Wars’

At Rice University in Houston, chemist and nanotechnologist James Tour has pioneered a method for quickly extracting rare-earth metals.

Tour developed a technique capable of breaking down electronic waste, ash, tailings, and more to rapidly recover rare-earth metals and other critical minerals, with a minimal environmental footprint.

His method uses flash Joule heating technology, a patented process that raises material temperatures to thousands of degrees within milliseconds and uses chlorine gas to extract rare-earth elements from magnet waste in seconds without needing water or acids.

Tour said his flash Joule heating technology is already commercially proven in the company Universal Matter, which was spun out of his lab, and in other contexts with graphene, a one-atom-thick form of carbon used to strengthen materials, improve battery performance, and enhance electronics.

“People never really knew how to scale that, and we came up with a process to do this using flash Joule heating,“ he told The Epoch Times. ”That company is up and running and making 1 ton per day of graphene, and it’s already introduced into concrete and asphalt markets.”

The rare-earth version is close behind with a Texas factory that has licensed the method for metal recovery.

He said Flash Metals USA, the U.S.-based subsidiary of Australia’s Metallium, is aiming to process 1 ton per day of print circuit boards by January 2026 and 20 tons per day by September 2026 to recover the rare-earth elements and critical metals they contain.

Electronic waste can contain metal concentrations up to 1,000 times higher than those found in natural ores.

“It’s easier to just deal with things that we already have separated, that we have already deployed into our current electronics and magnets that we’re throwing away,“ Tour said. ”This is [a] treasure, it’s an absolute gold mine.”

​​The technologies behind modern rare-earth separation were developed in the United States during the Manhattan Project led by J. Robert Oppenheimer. Solvent extraction methods were later adopted to isolate individual rare-earth elements.

The United States dominated global production through the 1960s and 1970s via California’s Mountain Pass Mine but lost that position after the mid-1980s as China, initially lacking expertise in heavy rare-earth refining, expanded mining and processing.

Molycorp’s rare earth mine and processing facilities at Mountain Pass, Calif., in this file image. The United States dominated global rare earth production through the 1960s and 1970s via the Mountain Pass mine but lost that position in the mid-1980s. AlanM1/CC-BY-3.0

A key turning point occurred in 1995 when General Motors sold its magnet subsidiary Magnequench, the last U.S. company making rare-earth magnets, to a Chinese-led consortium. The sale was approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States and resulted in the transfer of technologies and operations to China, marking the end of U.S. leadership in rare-earth production.

The deal was condemned in 2005 by Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.) for leaving the United States without a domestic neodymium magnet supplier during Washington’s broader economic opening to Beijing under President Bill Clinton.

Tour said China’s monopoly has also bred its environmentally destructive refining methods.

“This is a horrendously messy process in China, and they’ve contaminated the cities and the rivers in those cities and the water systems in those cities,” he said.

Tour said the Trump administration is treating the issue of rare-earth processing with great importance.

“President [Donald] Trump’s very serious, and it’s this type of thing that can prevent wars,” he said.

“[But] if we don’t have access to these elements, we will go to war. This is the stuff you fight over.”

With guaranteed pricing, Tour said, the U.S. government will counter China’s tactic of artificially depressing prices and bankrupting competitors by flooding markets with cheap material to render Western projects uneconomic.

“The U.S. government will stand behind us, make sure that we get paid a fair price for this, so that the Chinese cannot just artificially drop the price and put us out,” he said.

A former U.S. Army officer said she views the rare-earths issue as “the free world against the not-free world.”

Rice University chemist James Tour (L) and postdoctoral research associate Bing Deng prepare to “flash” electronic waste to recover its valuable metals for recycling. Tour developed a technique to quickly extract rare earth metals from electronic waste, ash, tailings, and other materials. (Bottom Left) The innovative research builds on Tour’s 2020 development of waste disposal and upcycling applications using flash Joule heating.

Jessica Lewis McFate, who is now senior director of intelligence solutions at Babel Street, focusing on open-source intelligence and national security, said the implications around sourcing rare earths are profound.

McFate told The Epoch Times that if a Fortune 500 company were to lose access to rare earth-dependent components such as gallium for six months, the impact would extend well beyond a shortage of high-performance chips used in high-intensity computing or radio-frequency applications, including weapons and radar systems.

Gallium, she said, is also critical in medical technologies, meaning that disruptions would ripple across both national security and civilian sectors.

“It scales out to our smartphones, it scales out to MRI machines,” she said.

“And it becomes this requirement for CEOs to all of a sudden really ask how much they know, and ask their vendors tough questions [such as] ‘Where did you get the circuit board?’”

“The Chinese perspective is that they are fighting a war,” she said.

“I think it’s a lot safer for humanity if we fight back by non-lethal means for what we believe in. So I think it’s OK to be deeply competitive and even clever in our competition for advantage.”

‘Momentum Is Clearly Shifting’

Billions of dollars in federal funding are now moving into the sector.

The Department of Energy has announced nearly $1 billion in funding opportunities aimed at supply chains for critical minerals and rare earths, covering mining, processing, manufacturing, recycling, and byproduct recovery.

Under the Trump administration, Washington now holds stakes in MP Materials, Vulcan Elements, ReElement Technologies, and Lithium Americas, and has struck critical minerals deals with more than a dozen countries.

Australia is becoming the strongest non-Chinese processing hub through Lynas’s expansion, Iluka’s Eneabba refinery, and Arafura’s Nolans Project.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 05:00

"We Are The Free World Now" - Europe Declares War On Free Speech

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column in The Hill on the move by the Trump Administration against five leading figures in the European censorship movement, including Thierry Breton, the former European Union commissioner responsible for digital policy. The United States is finally responding to what is an existential threat to American values. It is worth noting, as I discuss in my new book, Rage and the Republic, that the EU is not only exporting its censorship rules but threatening American companies that do not meet its environment, social and governance (ESG) policies. It is time for Congress to follow suit and get into this fight.

“We are the free world now.”

Those words from Raphael Glucksmann, a French socialist member of the European Parliament, captured the pearl-clutching outrage of Europeans after the Trump administration did what no prior administration has ever done — stand up to Europe to defend the freedom of speech.

This week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio barred five figures closely associated with European censorship efforts from traveling to the U.S. This includes Thierry Breton, the former European Union commissioner responsible for digital policy.

In a post on X, Rubio declared that the U.S. “will no longer tolerate these egregious acts of extraterritorial censorship” and will target “leading figures of the global censorship-industrial complex from entering the United States.”

Breton achieved infamy as one of the architects of the massive EU censorship system, which is now being globalized. Armed with the notorious Digital Services Act, Breton and others threatened American companies and officials that they would have to yield to European standards of free speech. After Breton learned that Musk was planning to interview Trump before the last presidential election, he even warned the X owner that he would be “monitored” and potentially subject to EU fines.

Socialist Glucksmann is now irate at “this scandalous sanction against Thierry Breton.”

“We are Europeans,” he declared.

“We must defend our laws, our principles, our interests.” In other words, this is a war over whether Europe or the U.S. Constitution will dictate the scope of free speech for American companies and citizens.

Breton and his colleagues are finally being treated as what they are: a clear and present danger to the “indispensable right” that defines all Americans.

The EU has been enlisted by anti-free speech figures in the U.S. to force companies like X and Facebook to restore censorship of Americans. After Musk bought Twitter with a pledge to restore free-speech protections, Hillary Clinton called upon European officials to force him to censor under Europe’s Digital Services Act.

Nina Jankowicz, the former head of Biden’s infamous Disinformation Governance Board, appeared before the European Parliament. She called upon the 27 EU countries to fight against the U.S., which she described as a global threat.

The E.U. enthusiastically took up the challenge. This year, I spoke in Berlin at the World Forum, which boosted the slogan, “A New World Order with European Values.” Bill and Hillary Clinton and other Americans cheered on the European efforts.

The Digital Services Act bars speech that is viewed as “disinformation” or “incitement.” When it was passed over the condemnations of many of us in the free speech community, European Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager celebrated by declaring that it is “not a slogan anymore — that what is illegal offline should also be seen and dealt with as illegal online. Now it is a real thing. Democracy’s back.”

It is indeed a “real thing.”

In my forthcoming book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, I discuss the challenges facing our republic in the 21st century, including the EU and its transnational governance model. Many on the left are supporting the erosion of national laws and values in favor of standards set by global experts and elites.

This cadre of American enablers has been increasingly vocal in Europe. Notably, late-night ABC host Jimmy Kimmel delivered a Christmas Eve address in Great Britain denouncing the U.S. as a global threat. He declared that “from a fascism perspective, this has been a really great year. Tyranny is booming over here.”

It was crushingly ironic.

Many of us have been writing for years about how free speech has been eviscerated in the United Kingdom, where people are being prosecuted for “toxic ideologies” and an ever-lengthening list of unacceptable political viewpoints.

Justice Amy Coney Barrett issued a warning this week about the collapse of free speech in the United Kingdom.

Yet that is where a comedian, who is paid millions and attacks Trump and conservatives nightly, went to complain about the threat to free speech in the U.S.

Both Vice President JD Vance and Secretary Rubio have delivered major speeches warning the EU about its effort to export censorship systems, particularly targeting American citizens and companies. After years of encouragement and enabling from the Obama and Biden administrations, the U.S. government is finally in this fight.

That is why Europe is up in arms, denouncing the move to bar these officials as an attack on its own sovereignty. 

In other words, an effort to defend our own free speech values is a threat to the proclaimed “New World Order with European Values.”

In reality, I do not like travel bans. I prefer that these figures come to this country and face free-speech advocates. Yet despite our calls for Congress to get into this fight, it has done nothing due to opposition from Democratic members. We cannot wait as the EU weaponizes and globalizes censorship.

Glucksmann is right about one thing. This is a fight over who today can be rightfully called the “free world.” In the U.S., we continue to cling to the quaint notion that the free world should be based on … well, freedom.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of the forthcoming “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution” on the 250th anniversary of the American Revolution.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 03:30

Latvia Hails Completion Of 175-Mile Fence Along Russian Border

Latvia has finally finished building a long anticipated nearly 175-mile fence along its border with Russia, according to regional media on Tuesday, which cited the state-linked company responsible for managing the project.

The fence cost an equivalent of nearly $20 million, and so at that price points to it being defensively minimal and low-tech, however some additional work is still underway on supporting infrastructure - which is expected to include support items such as footbridges over marshy terrain, observation towers, and engineering installations. 

Illustrative: fence on the Latvia-Belarus border

The country's Interior Minister Rihards Kozlovskis said Latvia is now deploying advanced surveillance and monitoring systems along the frontier for an eventual "modern border security system" on the European Union's eastern edge.

This will also complement the previously erected 90-mile fence along Latvia's border with Belarus, which has been a partner of Moscow in the Ukraine war. 

A little over a year ago, Latvia had reached 80% completion of the border wall with Russia. It represents the general attitude of the Baltic neighborhood - that Russia can't be trusted and is an 'aggressor' state bent on expansion.

There's also been a rise in Baltic armies hosting war games, and exercises which are integrated with NATO, which is fast becoming a 'new normal'.

Other countries in both eastern and northern Europe are racing to construct their own walls. For example Finland has committed $143 million to a greatly expanded fence along its southeastern boundary.

Helsinki has further announced plans for additional defensive structures, including bunkers and shelters designed to withstand direct artillery or missile attacks.

Poland too has erected electronic surveillance barrier along its border with Russia's Kaliningrad exclave, and recent reports have said it is reintroducing land mines after long being part of an international ban on the controversial weapons.

via BBC

Polish authorities have also wanted to reduce the risk of migration pressure, pointing to the launch of flights to Kaliningrad as well as Belarus from the Middle East and Africa.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 02:45

'Bribes For Votes' Scheme Uncovered In Ukraine Parliament Involves Members Of Zelensky's Party

Via Remix News,

Ukraine’s anti-corruption authorities have announced charges against members of an organized crime group that operated in the Verkhovna Rada.

Among the suspects are five members of parliament from Volodymyr Zelensky’s party, reports Do Rzezcy.

The National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP) announced that the charges were filed regarding bribes paid for votes in parliament.

According to investigators’ findings, MPs were paid to influence decisions made in the legislative chamber in a persistent and well-organized manner.

In an official statement posted on Telegram, NABU announced that, in cooperation with SAP, an undercover investigation had identified an organized criminal group that included serving members of Ukraine’s parliament.

The investigation’s findings indicate that members of this group accepted illegal benefits in exchange for votes in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

The bureau also emphasized that these activities are part of a broader strategy to combat corruption at the highest levels of government.

On Saturday, the website Ukrainska Pravda revealed that the suspects are members of parliament from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party, Servant of the People: Yevhen Pyvarov, Ihor Nehulevsky, Olha Savchenko, and Yuri Kisel. The website also reported the name of Yuri Koryachenkov.

According to the investigation’s findings, the group had a hierarchical structure and a clear division of roles. It included current Ukrainian deputies and officials from the Chancellery of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine."

"The group’s activities were coordinated by one of the deputies,” the report reads.

The Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported that “when organizing the votes, group members sent instructions with the numbers of bills in a specially created WhatsApp group.”

“Following the votes, payments were systematically transferred to individual deputies,” the report added.

The news comes after the “golden toilet” corruption scandal rocked Ukraine just months ago, and which led to the arrest of top ministers in Zelensky’s government and the arrest of Zelensky’s top aide.

In addition, a long-time business associate of Zelensky fled to Israel after receiving a tip-off just hours before a NABU raid on his residence.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 02:00