FedEx Seeks Tariff Refund With Lawsuit Against US

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

FedEx is suing the United States Feb. 23, seeking a full refund on President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) lacked authorization.

The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade, seeks to recoup all duties paid by FedEx as a result of IEEPA orders and any interest accrued, plus attorney’s fees.

The Tennessee-based shipping giant focused its lawsuit mainly on the emergency tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada, and China, and the 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports to the United States, which went into effect on April 5, 2025.

In the Learning Resources v. Trump case, the Supreme Court ruled Feb. 20 that Trump’s tariffs violated the emergency powers law he invoked last year to impose levies on China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries.

Tariffs enacted under other laws were not affected by the ruling.

The president declared a national emergency under IEEPA starting on Feb. 1, 2025, to address the flow of illicit drugs across the northern and southern borders, and to stop the synthetic opioid supply chain from China.

Trump continued taking more steps to implement emergency orders with tariffs last year and earlier this year, addressing global threats. The latest tariffs targeted Iran on Feb. 6.

The president issued an order Feb. 20 ending IEEPA tariff actions.

In a dissenting opinion, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh said the federal government may be forced to refund billions of dollars to importers who paid tariffs under IEEPA “even though some importers may have already passed on costs to consumers or others.”

Kavanaugh also said he expected it could be a “mess.”

During a press conference Feb. 20 following the Supreme Court’s decision, Trump said the ruling didn’t do enough to address the refund issue, which could tie up the federal government in court for years to come.

“I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years,” the president said.

Ships are docked at the Port of Long Beach in Long Beach, Calif., on Feb. 20, 2026. Damian Dovarganes/AP Photo

Other companies have filed lawsuits seeking refunds on the tariffs, including Revlon, Costco, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Toyota, BYD, Patagonia, REI, Trek, Specialized, Shimano, Bell Sports, Osprey, and Dole Fresh Fruit Company.

Since the Supreme Court ruling, Trump has imposed a 10 percent tariff on all countries, which was raised to 15 percent on Feb. 21. The new worldwide tariff level went into effect immediately, the president announced in a post on Truth Social.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 14:05

Tonight's State Of The Union: Here's What To Watch As Trump Plans Two, Possibly Three Hour Speech

 Update (1555ET): Tonight's speech is expected to be over two hours, possibly approaching three, PBS News reports. 

He's also expected to call for a new form of personal and corporate tax cuts, Fox News reports, citing comments Trump made at the White House luncheon.

*  *  *

President Trump is set to deliver his first State of the Union address of his second term on Feb. 24, when he is expected to highlight his administration’s accomplishments and seize the moment to shore up support for Republicans ahead of the critical 2026 elections.

Historically, the president’s party almost always suffers midterm losses, and the House appears especially vulnerable this year.

Trump, eager to reverse the trend, is set to deliver a lengthy speech promoting the policy wins over the past year.

“It’s going to be a long speech, because we have so much to talk about,” the president said during an event at the White House on Feb. 23.

In fact, as Polymarket odds show, his speech is expected to last 95 minutes...

The address is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET and will be Trump’s second to Congress since returning to office. He previously spoke to a joint session of Congress on March 4 last year. While it was not an official State of the Union address, the speech was the longest on record, lasting nearly 1 hour and 40 minutes.

Below, The Epoch Times' Emel Akan lays out five key things to watch at this year’s State of the Union:

Midterms Messaging

With eight months until the midterms, Republicans are working to win voters, especially independents who backed Trump in 2024. The majority of voters are still anxious about the high cost of living, according to recent polls. Trump is likely to prioritize the economy in his speech and talk about what he has done to lower gas, housing, and health care costs for American families.

Luke Nichter, professor of presidential studies at Chapman University in Orange, California, believes that Trump’s primary message will be about the midterms.

“He wants to make sure those enthusiastic supporters are still enthusiastic, they still support him, and continue to turn out this fall,” Nichter told The Epoch Times.

The speech comes on the heels of the Supreme Court’s decision last week that struck down tariffs imposed under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

President Donald Trump acknowledges the audience before delivering his State of the Union address at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, on Feb. 4, 2020. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

Trump sharply criticized the justices who supported the ruling and has since pledged to raise global tariffs to 15 percent using other statutory authorities. During a Feb. 20 press conference, Trump said he was “ashamed of certain members of the court.” Hence, his tone and remarks toward the justices in the room will be closely watched during the address.

Trump is expected to make the case for high tariffs, even as some Republican lawmakers have expressed concerns about their economic impact.

Immigration will also be a key topic, as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) remains shut down due to ongoing disagreement between the White House and congressional Democrats. Trump is expected to defend his administration’s policies while adopting a more measured tone in light of two recent fatal shootings by immigration agents in Minneapolis.

Aaron Dusso, a political science professor at Indiana University, believes that Trump will try to shift the narrative during his speech, especially given recent criticism of the domestic immigration crackdown and declining approval ratings.

“This is going to be an opportunity for him to command attention across the entire country,” Dusso told The Epoch Times.

Foreign Policy Questions

Foreign policy is typically not a major focus in the State of the Union addresses, as presidents usually prioritize domestic issues. Trump’s address may be an exception, Nichter said.

In recent weeks, the administration has stepped up the U.S. military presence in the Middle East to exert pressure on Iran to curb its nuclear program. The Pentagon has dispatched another large aircraft carrier to the region. Amid tensions, another round of talks with Tehran is set for Feb. 26 in Geneva. Lawmakers will be closely watching for any new announcements regarding Iran.

Mexican soldiers patrol in armored vehicles in Acapulco in the aftermath of a military operation in which Mexican drug lord Nemesio Oseguera, known as "El Mencho," was killed in Jalisco state, in Acapulco, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. Henry Romero/Reuters

In Mexico, a U.S.-aided operation killed Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, a powerful drug cartel leader, on Feb. 22. Lawmakers and foreign policy analysts will be listening for clarity on the extent of the U.S. involvement in the Mexican military’s operation.

Trump is also expected to highlight his broader efforts to broker peace around the world, crediting himself for ending eight wars.

According to Nichter, Trump may also address unresolved foreign policy issues, including Greenland, Cuba, Venezuela, and the golden dome missile defense system.

Guests in the Gallery

The White House and lawmakers will invite special guests to the State of the Union to highlight their political messages.

Over the weekend, Trump invited the U.S. Men’s and Women’s Olympic Hockey teams following their gold medal victories over Canada.

The women’s team declined the invitation, citing scheduling issues. The men’s team is expected to attend.

Jake Guentzel #59, Tage Thompson #72, Jaccob Slavin #74, Kyle Connor #81 and Jake Sanderson #85 of Team United States listen to the national anthem during the medal ceremony for Men's Ice Hockey following their gold-medal win over Canada at the 2026 Winter Olympic games at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy, on Feb. 22, 2026. Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Democratic lawmakers have invited several people who say they were victims of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, including Jess Michaels and the family of the late Virginia Roberts Giuffre, to demand legal consequences for those named in the files.

Some Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), will bring constituents to raise concerns about the impact of rising tariffs and health care costs.

Some Republicans are focusing on human rights issues in China. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will host the daughter of Gulshan Abbas, a Uyghur doctor detained in China since 2018. Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) will host Claire Lai, daughter of Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai, who is serving a 20-year prison sentence.

Reaction

There have been dramatic moments at past State of the Union addresses, most notably in February 2020, when then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tore up a copy of Trump’s speech after he finished speaking.

This time, the setting will be different. Seated behind Trump will be Johnson and Vice President JD Vance.

Reactions from Democrats in the chamber will be closely watched. As with previous years, some lawmakers are expected to stage symbolic protests, wearing coordinated colors or displaying signs.

Vice President Mike Pence claps as Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi rips a copy of President Donald Trump's speech after he delivers the State of the Union address at the Capitol in Washington on Feb. 4, 2020. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

The official response from the Democratic Party will be delivered by Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who won a landslide victory last November and became the state’s first female governor. Her response will air immediately after Trump’s speech.

Yemisi Egbewole, a Democratic strategist and former Biden White House adviser, said that Spanberger’s selection shows the party is changing its strategy by focusing on affordability and moving away from identity issues.

The response is expected to be measured and aimed at voters who are uneasy about Trump as president, even if they sometimes support Republicans, Egbewole told The Epoch Times.

“That is really where Democrats need to hit,” she said.

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger signs executive orders after being sworn into office at the Virginia State Capitol in Richmond, Va., on Jan. 17, 2026. Win McNamee/Getty Images

More than a dozen Democrats plan to skip the speech and attend an alternative event, the “People’s State of the Union” rally at the National Mall in Washington.

Sens. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), as well as Reps. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.), Becca Balint (D-Vt.), Greg Casar (D-Texas), Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.), and Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) are expected to skip the address.

Defending the Record

Trump is expected to defend his record and outline his legislative goals in another lengthy address.

He will tout economic milestones, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 50,000 points. He will argue that crime is falling nationwide.

He will also likely highlight reductions in immigration flows at the southern border with Mexico. Trump has previously said that illegal immigration along that border has reached near-zero levels.

A banner showing President Donald Trump at the Department of Justice in Washington on Feb. 21, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The address is also considered a prime opportunity for the president to lay out his legislative proposals. This year, Trump is expected to encourage the passage of the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) America Act, a bill that would require proof of citizenship to vote.

He will also tout his other policies, such as banning male athletes with gender dysphoria from competing in women’s sports.

According to David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University in Minnesota, Trump will have to keep his base energized while deciding whether to adjust his tone and message to win back the independent voters who helped elect him in 2024.

Republicans’ chances of holding Congress depend on retaining those swing voters, he told The Epoch Times.

“His base is still mostly with him,” Schultz said. “The question becomes, does he only pitch to the base, or does he try to alter his language and approach to appeal to the swing voters?”

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 13:35

As Epstein Brokered Rothschild Bank Deals, DEA Ran Secret Probe Into $50M Laundering Scheme

A newly uncovered DEA document from the DOJ's Jeffrey Epstein files release reveals that Epstein was the subject of a secret, 5-year investigation by the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) on suspicions of laundering approximately $50 million through a web of illicit drug and prostitution networks - yet federal prosecutors pursuing his 2019 trafficking case had no idea. 

The DEA investigation, code-named "Chain Reaction," was launched by the DEA's New York office on December 17, 2010, and targette4d Epstein (listed as "Target 4") - as well as 14 other individuals whose names have been redacted. Chain Reaction focused on "illegitimate wire transfers" suspected of funding "illicit drug and/or prostitution activities" in New York City and the US Virgin Islands, where Epstein owned his notorious Little St. James island. 

Drawing from a multi-agency dragnet - including the DEA, FBI, ICE, CBP, FinCEN, and others - the memo compiles biographical data, border crossings, criminal histories, and financial red flags. It reveals roughly $50 million in suspicious transactions from 2010 to 2015, routed through accounts in Switzerland, France, the Cayman Islands, and New York. Epstein himself was flagged in seven Unified Suspicious Activity Reports (USARs) totaling $5.67 million, eight Currency Transaction Reports (CTRs) amounting to $233,397, and three Unified Currency Transaction Reports (UCTRs) for $102,648 - some conducted on his behalf by associates.

The memo also reveals overlapping investigations, including an ICE case in West Palm Beach (2006–2008), a Las Vegas ICE probe (opened 2009, pending in 2010), a Paris-based ICE "Operation Angel Watch" (2013), and an FBI case from 2006 still active in 2015.

The redacted targets include individuals with ties to prostitution (e.g., a Polish fashion model linked to $2 million in transfers) and businesses like SLK Designs LLC (a fashion entity run by Epstein associates) and Hyperion Air Inc. (his aircraft holding company). Epstein's border crossings (e.g., frequent flights between JFK and Paris's Charles de Gaulle in 2014) and communications (phones, emails) were tracked.

The memo expands Epstein's crimes beyond sex trafficking, suggesting a syndicate blending prostitution with potential narco-finance. Redacted associates handled transactions "on behalf" of Epstein, and businesses like SLK Designs appear tied to UCTRs involving negotiable instruments. Little St. James - Epstein's "Pedophile Island" - is fingered as a hub, aligning with survivor accounts of exploitation.

Timeline of Key Probes:

• 2006: FBI opens investigation (still active in 2015).
• 2006–2008: ICE West Palm Beach case.
• 2009: ICE Las Vegas probe opens.
• 2010: DEA "Chain Reaction" begins.
• 2013: ICE Paris "Operation Angel Watch."
• 2015: OCDETF memo compiled.
• 2019: SDNY sex-trafficking charges (unaware of DEA).

Elite Banking Ties: From Rothschilds to Qatar's KBL Lux JV

Epstein repeatedly held himself out to people as a representative to the Swiss-based Edmond de Rothschild Group, led by Ariane de Rothschild at the time. Emails reveal that Ariane met with him dozens of times between 2013 and 2019, stayed at his properties, sought his advice on family feuds (e.g., with cousin David de Rothschild over branding), and listened to geopolitical advice such as how to profit from the 2014 Ukraine coup. For his services, the Rothschilds paid him $25 million in two payments roughly one month apart in October and November of 2015. Epstein introduced her to lawyers like Obama White House counsel Kathy Ruemmler, and pursued funding for Israeli cyber firms (e.g., via Ehud Barak). Last week, former Victoria's Secret boss Les Wexner testified under oath that he only trusted Epstein due to his work for the Rothschilds in France. 

Jeffrey Epstein, right, became a personal confidant and key business adviser to Ariane de Rothschild, left, for six years from 2013 © FT montage/Bloomberg/Alamy/Getty Images It's Fine...

And what happened in December of 2015, after the Rothschilds wired Epstein $25 million? The bank reached a non-prosecution agreement with the Obama DOJ on December 18, 2015 amid a DOJ investigation under the "Swiss Bank Program," which targeted banks for aiding U.S. tax evasion through undeclared accounts. The bank ended up paying a $45.2 million penalty (including fines and forfeitures) as part of a non-prosecution agreement. 

Behind the scenes, the group’s French chief, Ariane de Rothschild, had tasked Jeffrey Epstein and the lawyer he had introduced her to, Kathy Ruemmler, with closing the deal.

“45 mio [million]?” de Rothschild asked Epstein in a December 2015 email exchange. He replied that, counting a $10mn fee for the lawyers involved and $25mn for him, “I think you will find that . . . all less than 80 pretty good”. “Deep thks for your amazing help,” de Rothschild answered. -FT

Specific allegations against Edmond de Rothschild included knowingly assisting U.S. clients in concealing assets (with an aggregate maximum balance of about $1.8 billion in undeclared accounts), using sham offshore entities in jurisdictions like Liechtenstein, Panama, and the British Virgin Islands to hide ownership, and facilitating cash movements or other methods to evade IRS detection. The bank admitted it was "highly probable" that some American accountholders were non-compliant with U.S. tax laws, and it encouraged clients to use structures that obscured true beneficial ownership. This investigation stemmed from broader U.S. efforts post-2009 UBS scandal (where UBS paid $780 million), which exposed systemic issues in Swiss banking secrecy aiding tax evasion.

Tangled Web of Who's Who

While the DEA was digging into shady wire transfers, Epstein was moonlighting as a high-society financial fixer. Emails from the DOJ's Epstein files (DataSet 9) show him brokering a 2013–2015 joint venture between Qatar-owned KBL European Private Bankers (Luxembourg) and the Edmond de Rothschild Group's Swiss operations. Epstein pitched the deal to Qatari royalty - Sheikh Jaber Al Thani, boasting of his Rothschild representation, though the deal never materialized.

Epstein with Sheikh Jabor Bin Yousef Bin Jassim Bin Jabor al Thani. Pic: @OversightDems

True: here is Epstein trying to convince Qatar's Jaber al-Thani (via his nephew Jabor) to JV his Luxembourg bank KBL with Rothschild's Swiss bank https://t.co/YAqrQGOMtD pic.twitter.com/mmpQdljzKZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 20, 2026

Here are other notable individuals and deals Epstein was involved in while also under DEA investigation:

Peter Thiel

Epstein and tech billionaire Peter Thiel had a multi-year relationship starting around 2014, involving at least eight meetings and over 2,000 emails. Epstein invested $40 million in Thiel's Valar Ventures fund (backing international startups like Wise and Xero) in 2015–2016. Their correspondence often covered shared interests like tax avoidance (e.g., Thiel's Roth IRA ballooning to over $2 billion) and anti-globalization views (e.g., celebrating Brexit as a "return to tribalism"). Epstein also used Thiel as a sounding board for other deals, including emergency-services tech startups and connections via former Israeli PM Ehud Barak

In one Feb. 28, 2016 email to Peter Thiel, Epstein sought inroads for "the bank that has 160 b in mgmt' - which has the 'best client list in the world.' 

Brian Armstrong

One of Epstein's notable tech investments during this time was in Coinbase, the prominent cryptocurrency exchange, where in 2014 he directly invested in the company at an early stage through one of his entities, committing approximately $3 million when Coinbase's valuation was around $400 million, a move that aligned with his growing interest in emerging fintech and proved successful as he later sold half of his stake for $15 million in 2018, with the total return escalating to over $30 million by the time of his estate's valuation in 2026, making it one of his few profitable ventures in the Silicon Valley space that showcased his access to startup opportunities amid the DEA's probe into his broader financial dealings.

Leon Black

Epstein's involvement in the art world intersected with his advisory role for billionaire Leon Black, particularly in orchestrating the 2015 acquisition of Pablo Picasso's 1931 sculpture Buste de Femme (Marie-Thérèse), where acting as Black's tax and estate strategist he helped structure the $106 million-plus deal with Black's Narrow Holdings LLC purchasing the work from Maya Widmaier-Picasso via intermediary Larry Gagosian, involving over $86 million in wires from May to October 2015 routed through European banks like Banque Leonardo in France amid a legal dispute with Qatari buyers, during which Epstein demanded detailed wire records under joint defense privilege, ultimately succeeding with Black retaining ownership after a 2016 settlement as part of Epstein's broader management of Black's $2.7 billion collection that coincided with DEA-flagged transfers and Black's $50 million-plus payments to Epstein that year.

Larry Gagosian

On the other side of the Buste de Femme (Marie-Thérèse) deal was art dealer Larry Gagosian, who acted as the intermediary in the $106 million-plus deal, purchasing the work from Maya Widmaier-Picasso and selling it to Black's Narrow Holdings LLC amid a legal dispute with Qatari buyers, with emails showing Epstein's active role in scrutinizing wire transfers and demanding details under joint defense privilege during the height of the DEA investigation.

Ehud Barak

Epstein also ventured into Israeli security technology by investing in Carbyne (formerly Reporty), a surveillance and emergency-response startup chaired by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, committing an undisclosed amount reportedly around $1–2 million from 2014 to 2015 while attempting to introduce Barak to Peter Thiel for additional funding, with the company raising $16 million overall during this period as Epstein's stake became part of his pattern of pursuing global tech deals with intelligence ties including potential Russian connections, proving successful in terms of his investment and highlighting his networked approach to opportunities that blended tech and geopolitics.

Sergey Belyakov

On the geopolitical front, Epstein explored Russian investment opportunities through contacts like Sergey Belyakov, a Russian government official, where between 2014 and 2015 Belyakov pitched Epstein on attracting foreign capital to Russia such as at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum while Epstein sought assistance with visas and deals. Epstein also asked Belyakov for help resolving an extortion attempt by a Russian woman targeting a "powerful" businessman in New York - for which Epstein was provided detailed intelligence on the woman which may tie into some of the prostitution and money laundering risks being investigated by the DEA.

Hosain Rahman

In consumer tech, Epstein backed Jawbone, the fitness tracker and headset startup led by CEO Hosain Rahman, with his investment occurring sometime between 2010 and 2015 though exact details are murky, fitting his broader Silicon Valley plays but ultimately failing when the company liquidated in 2017 and resulting in a total loss for his stake.

In 2012, Ian Osborne, an adviser to executives and political figures, reconnected the pair and encouraged Mr. Epstein to invest in Jawbone. When Woody Allen was filming “Blue Jasmine” in San Francisco, Mr. Epstein invited Mr. Rahman to visit the set, where Mr. Epstein showed off a pair of high-tech eyeglasses. -NYT

Paul Tudor Jones

Epstein also engaged in a hedge fund transaction with Paul Tudor Jones, the renowned manager of Tudor Investment Corporation, where during the 2010–2015 window Epstein received $13.5 million from Jones' fund with the nature of the payment unclear possibly a return on investment or advisory fee, as part of Epstein's involvement in high-finance circles that surfaced in post-death estate reports and potentially tied into the opaque transfers under DEA scrutiny.

Honeycomb Partners

Finally, Epstein facilitated a significant fund transfer into Honeycomb Partners, moving at least $60 million into this private investment vehicle sometime before 2015, with the assets successfully transferred and valued at over $60 million though the fund's opacity could have intersected with the DEA's investigation into Epstein's illegitimate wire activities.

George Bush / Bill Clinton - that whole Haiti thing

Epstein's connections even extended to former U.S. President George W. Bush during the 2010-2015 period, notably through his role in coordinating private jet logistics for Bush and Bill Clinton's joint humanitarian trip to Haiti in March 2010 following the devastating earthquake. You know, the one where a woman named Laura Silsby - who showed up in the Clinton emails - was busted trying to smuggle 33 children out of the country without proper exit documentation. The case gained notoriety due to diplomatic interventions by the U.S. government under Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Bill Clinton, as UN special envoy to Haiti, visited the smugglers and advocated for their release, emphasizing humanitarian intent amid the earthquake chaos. Hillary's State Department monitored the case closely, with cables (later leaked via WikiLeaks) showing efforts to expedite trials and releases.

Interesting, Silsby's original lawyer, Jorge Puello, was arrested in March 2010 as part of an investigation into an international human trafficking ring following an investigation being led by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) in connection with the ring - and served just three years in federal prison for "alien smuggling."

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 13:20

AI Is An 'Orchestration' Layer, Not 'Displacement': Anthropic Event Leaves Deutsche Doubting Software's Imminent Demise

After watching Anthropic's Enterprise Agents briefing event, Deutsche Bank's Software research team have even greater conviction that model providers are unlikely to displace software incumbents and are instead positioning themselves and their agents to be an orchestration layer on top of existing and incumbent systems.

Various partnership announcements (detailed below) earlier in the day (including Intuit) along with mentioning the importance of data and context that live in the various systems of record and engagement suggest that it remains very difficult to replicate or displace much of the knowledge, metadata, and workflows incumbent systems have amassed ("Claude is only as useful as the data it connects to").

This is consistent with Deutsche Bank's previous thoughts, where they see the risk of AI is less vibe coding or replacing existing systems.

With stocks continuing to embed this risk in current multiples, Deutsche see today's event as an incremental positive for the software sector.

With that said, we still acknowledge other risks around the costs of software development compressing along with the potential for change in the interaction layer for knowledge workers, thus reducing switching costs for software companies.

This could impact underlying unit economics over the medium to long term.

Additionally, we wonder whether model providers such as Anthropic offering orchestration capabilities could increase competition with incumbent vendors looking to be the control plane for agentic AI.

Lastly,Deutsche continues to see this as positive for the infrastructure/compute layer given the increase in queries by humans/agents against underlying enterprise data.

*  *  *

Read the details of the presentation below:

Update 1230PM EST:

Goldman out with a note on the event, pointing out covering in names that were sold yesterday and arguing that positive earnings from key names like Salesforce could bring buyers back to the names hit by AI fears:

Anthropic "Enterprise Agents Briefing" kicked off 9:30am, and is ongoing. This event looming contributed to some of the weakness across AI-at-risk complex yesterday (in addition to the already much talked about Citrini blog post). The first hour of trading has been a COVER the news reaction with software complex popping higher.

Several significant single name moves on Anthropic mentions... many of which were primary constituents of the AI-At-Risk Thematic: CRM, INTU, FDS, LZ, DOCU all rallying ~5%. Early read is market is viewing as more of a PARTNERSHIP w incumbent SaaS vendors vs. DISPLACEMENT. We are seeing HF covers. No significant L/O buyers in the space just yet. Decent results from WDAY (tonight) and CRM (tomorrow night) might finally inspire some longer duration buyers to step up to the plate.

Update 1030AM EST:

Anthropic rolled out new AI capabilities for its Claude Cowork agent, designed to automate tasks in areas like human resources, investment banking, and design. Developed with partners including FactSet Research Systems Inc., the tools also allow business customers to customize plug-ins to fit their internal standards. The move is part of a broader push by Anthropic and OpenAI to expand AI deeper into professional industries.

Recent AI releases have unsettled Wall Street, contributing to sharp declines in software and financial services stocks amid fears of disruption. Scott White, Anthropic’s head of product, called it a “little bit of an overreach or overreaction” to tie market swings to a single launch, noting the company now serves over 300,000 business customers and was recently valued at $380 billion in a new funding round.

Updates include department-specific plug-ins for teams like human resources and investment banking, tools that let companies build customized plug-ins for their own workflows, and integrations with existing platforms such as Google Drive, Gmail, DocuSign, and LegalZoom.

Company executive Matt Piccolella said the strategy is to drive adoption by enabling businesses to create and distribute large numbers of tailored “mini apps” across departments. Anthropic is also launching a marketplace where organizations can host and share their internal plug-ins with employees.

--

Today, Anthropic took the spotlight with a live virtual event unveiling the latest advancements in its Claude chatbot, a presentation that comes at a tense moment for markets already rattled by artificial-intelligence disruption fears.

After a sharp Monday selloff that dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite - led by declines in companies like MasterCard and IBM on fears of AI disrupting their respective industries - investors on Tuesday steadied ahead of the demonstration, where the company promised real-time showcases of Claude’s expanding capabilities, new product announcements, and strategic insights from leadership.

Market jitters have intensified in recent days, particularly following the debut of Claude Code Security, a code-scanning tool that fueled concerns about mounting competition for established cybersecurity and software providers.

Against that backdrop, Tuesday's event is positioned not just as a product update, but as a potentially consequential moment for companies and investors closely watching how rapidly evolving AI tools like Claude could reshape the competitive landscape.

You can watch the event live here:

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 13:10

Huge Number Of US Allied Forces Exit Erbil Airbase, Fearing Iran Retaliation

Via Middle East Eye

A few days ago, amidst heightened US-Iran tensions, a military helicopter landed at the Erbil airport in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Although Western troops are rarely seen on the city’s streets, Erbil Air Base is heavily staffed with soldiers, and military helicopters fly overhead every day. Now, this airport could potentially become a target for Iran if the situation escalates. Since 2018, the Kurdistan region, including Erbil's airport, has come under attack by drones, rockets and ballistic missiles from Iran and its proxies.

In July last year, a suicide drone was shot down above the airport amidst attacks on oil fields in the region. On January 21, a drone also targeted an Iranian Kurdish opposition party, killing one Kurdish fighter.

"There are foreign forces here, including Americans, and the Kurdistan region traditionally has good relations with western countries and America," Ziryan Rojhelati, the director of Rudaw Research Center, told Middle East Eye. "In this last year, we witnessed how a militia group targeted the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region. So many people think that in a possible war between Iran and America, and Iran and Israel, some kind of tension would be spread to the Kurdistan region."

Source: AFP

In recent weeks, the US has positioned around 100 aerial refuel tankers, carrier strike groups and fleets of fighters in the region. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has not ruled out strikes if nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, set to resume on Thursday, fail.

Sources told Middle East Eye that, amid the high possibility of a US attack on Iran, several countries belonging to the US-led coalition in Iraq have withdrawn or repositioned troops from Erbil Air Base, fearing possible Iranian retaliatory strikes.

"I think as you start seeing repositioning from Erbil, which is a likely counter-attack target and the ordered departure of nonessential personnel from Beirut, the chances of a US strike are going up. A lot hinges on the meeting in Geneva on Thursday," Michael Patrick Mulroy, the former US deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East, said.

Repositioning troops

In a formal letter to the UN secretary-general on February 19, Iran’s UN ambassador warned that all US bases, facilities and assets in the region could be considered legitimate targets if Tehran is attacked.

Several sources confirmed that roughly half of the coalition forces in Erbil have repositioned to other countries as a precautionary measure. While US and Hungarian troops have largely remained, Norwegian and Swedish forces, along with a number of Italian and French soldiers, have left.

Only Norway and Germany have so far publicly confirmed that they have relocated forces from the Erbil base. "Norway has about 60 soldiers in the Middle East region, carrying out various missions. Some of them have been relocated due to the tensions in the region, in cooperation with our coalition partners," Norwegian military spokesperson Brynjar Stordal told MEE.

A German military source said the army reduced its forces in response to the escalating regional conflict. Captain Raissa Broeren, a spokesperson for the Dutch defense ministry, on Monday said that they “are closely monitoring the situation in the region. Naturally, the safety of our personnel is the highest priority. If necessary, we will take security measures”.

However, she did not confirm if Dutch troops at the base have relocated. Andrew J Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East policy, who served during the first Trump administration as a senior adviser in the US State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, told MEE that it is "logical for coalition forces to move out as they believe they will be in the crosshairs of an Iranian retaliatory strike".

A prominent target

According to Reuters, there are estimated to be fewer than 2,000 troops in Erbil, after the US-led coalition moved its forces from Baghdad and Ain al-Assad to Erbil as part of a 2024 deal to end its presence in federal Iraq by the close of 2025, and in the Kurdistan region of Iraq by September 2026.

The latest Pentagon Inspector General report, released on February 19, confirms that coalition forces relocated to the Kurdistan region after handing over their headquarters in Baghdad to Nato in November, and the al-Asad airbase to the Iraqi government in December.

via ABC News

The coalition moved its headquarters to Erbil and Kuwait. As a result, the Erbil airbase, which is located at a civilian airport, has become a more prominent target for Iran, since it is now the only US base left in Iraq.

"The Erbil base has a large target on it not only due to US withdrawal from other Iraqi bases but also because attacking it provides the Iranians with an opportunity to make a declaration to local US partners in the region as to the cost of working with the Americans," Nicholas Heras, the senior director for the Strategy and Programs Unit in the Academic Division at the New Lines Institute, told MEE.

The New York Times reported on Sunday that Trump is leaning towards conducting a strike in the coming days to force Iran to make concessions. "The US is preparing for a conflict with Iran and will want to minimize the potential exposure of its personnel to Iranian attack," Heras added. "The Erbil base is a relatively large, multi-agency base that has rotating personnel, so in the event of a war with Iran, at a minimum the US will want to rotate out nonessential personnel."

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 12:50

USS Gerald Ford Carrier Hit By 'Sewage Crisis' As Record Deployment Endures

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier is traversing the Mediterranean, reportedly set to dock in Israel's port of Haifa next, following a prior stop in Crete early this week, after having been ordered from the Caribbean to the Middle East area as the US threatens Iran.

Coming off Venezuela operations and being ordered to the Central Command (CENTCOM) has meant its deployment is being extended. The Ford and its some 4,500+ personnel on board have already surpassed 240 days at sea, ranking this deployment is among the longest in modern naval history.

via AFP

But this significantly extended stint has witnessed some major internal problems - most especially centering on the supercarrier's strained infrastructure a mere decade after its commissioning. 

The Navy's flagship carrier is reportedly beset by chronic sewage system failures, various reports which stretch back to January have found.

According to the highly reputable military news source 19fortyfive, "While the carrier projects unmatched power, internal reports reveal a fleet under duress: sailors are missing major life events, and the ship's complex vacuum sewage system is suffering daily clogs."

The Wall Street Journal was able to get US Navy confirmation of the problem, though the US military still maintains this is not significant enough to hamper the mission:

Prosser said his son had mentioned problems with the toilets on the ship, without going into detail. NPR first reported in January that a number of toilets on the Ford were out of commission.

The Navy official said the Ford’s sewage system, which uses vacuum technology to transport waste from roughly 650 toilets on board, has experienced issues during the deployment, averaging about one maintenance call a day. But the situation is improving and the problems haven’t impacted the carrier’s ability to carry out its mission, the official said.

The WSJ had elsewhere in the article written, "One sailor missed the death of his great-grandfather. Another is thinking about leaving the Navy after almost a year away from her toddler daughter. Two more said the ship had sewage problems."

The story added, "President Trump’s decision to extend for a second time the deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is taking a toll on the ship's sailors and their families, and leading some to consider leaving the Navy when they return to home port, according to interviews with sailors on board the ship and their family members back home."

Some critics of America's anti-Iran posture have mocked the situation of the high-tech mega carrier not being able to keep up with its sewage...

A $13 billion warship positioned for confrontation with Iran is reportedly struggling with systemic sewage failures. Not hypersonics. Not asymmetric warfare. Not geopolitics. Toilets.

Washington talks about “shock and awe.”
The USS Gerald R. Ford is currently delivering shock &… https://t.co/frq547VOTa

— Hala Jaber (@HalaJaber) February 23, 2026

However, the ship's command has reminded the crew that this is what they signed up for, and that when the country calls, they must fulfil their mission.

Some reports have said that the vessels apparent persistent plumbing problems can ultimately be remedied only when the carrier comes back to US port and undergoes more thorough maintenance. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 11:45

Home Depot Posts Biggest EPS Beat In 16 Quarters As Big Remodeling Projects Sidelined

Shares of Home Depot are up 3.5% in early U.S. trading after the home-improvement retailer reported what Goldman consumer expert Scott Feiler called the "biggest EPS beat in 16 quarters."

Feiler explained:

We had positioning marked as just a 3 out of 10 in our pre-EPS positioning scorecard. That compared to LOW at a 5. Historically, we rarely have HD below a 5.

A small sales miss was expected and instead, we got a beat. This was also the first time they beat operating margins in the last 5 quarters and led to their biggest EPS beat in 16 quarters. The upside was driven by gross margins, so we will need to hear if that's sustainable.

Is this a thesis changer? No. However, it removes some of the recent near-term concerns that had begun to be more discussed (margin misses, small top-line miss/negative comps had been expected and no current buyback to support EPS upside).

Fourth quarter details:

4Q EPS of $2.72 vs. Consensus $2.53, with revenues ~30 bps ahead and comp sales of +0.4% vs. Consensus -0.4% (think bogey was -0.5% to -1%). Gross margins beat by 40 bps and SG&A was in line, leading to a nice operating margin beat. The FY guide is exactly in line with what they gave at their analyst day on December 9th, which was expected (EPS 0 to +4% and comps 0 to +2%).

The results suggest that the appetite for home renovation projects is steady despite a frozen housing market and inflation concerns. Home Depot gained market share last quarter and achieved double-digit e-commerce growth for a third straight quarter.

Multiple Wall Street analysts point to better-than-expected gross margin, with RBC analysts citing likely support from lower shrinkage, supply chain efficiencies, and better product mix. 

Here's more from Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg):

RBC (sector perform), Steven Shemesh

• "4Q results exceeded fairly muted expectations," with comp sales growing +0.4% (RBC -0.2%/consensus -0.4%) and adj. EPS coming in ~7% ahead

• The beat was driven primarily by stronger-than-anticipated gross margin, which Shemesh expects was supported by lower shrink, supply chain efficiencies and product mix

• The annual guidance is in-line with the company's preliminary guide on 12/9, but on a "higher EPS base implies some upside to current consensus positioning," according to the analyst

Bloomberg Intelligence, Drew Reading 

• "Home Depot's 4Q same-store sales exceeded expectations, as a higher average ticket offset a drop in transactions, suggesting volumes remain muted by depressed housing turnover and cautious consumers, who continue to delay big-ticket projects," Reading writes

• The reiterated the annual flat to +2% comp. sales growth outlook reflects a "relatively flat home-improvement market"

• "Professional and e-commerce investments should drive market- share gains and position Home Depot well for a rebound," in his view

Stifel (hold), W. Andrew Carter

• Carter expects the stock is likely to trade higher on the stronger 4Q performance with reiterated guidance driving positive revisions

• "We believe performance validates the lofty valuation," he adds

Bernstein (market perform), Zhihan Ma

• Ticket growth drove comp. sales gain as traffic declined, Ma writes

• HD reached an "all-time high" in average ticket ($90.6) for the full year whereas transactions (1,601.5m) remained below pre-Covid levels

• "A key question will be how HD manages to drive more traffic into stores and whether this requires more promotions" this year, she says

• Sales result came in "largely in line with management expectations, reflecting a lack of hurricane-driven repairs activities and ongoing weakness in housing/home improvement demand," Ma adds

• Overall, she maintains her cautious outlook and expects a "gradual path to a home improvement market rebound"

• "Despite near-term catalysts such as tax refunds and potential rate cuts, we still believe that a fundamental inflection point is some ways away," the analyst says

• She is also montioring the tariff situation, which could introduce margin upside should there be a refund and/or some relief in cost pressures

Even with the stronger 4Q performance, CFO Richard McPhail said in a Bloomberg interview that customers "have been on the sidelines" for large remodeling projects "for three years now."

McPhail added: "The homeowner is one of the healthiest customer cohorts out there, but they tell us that uncertainty is growing, that there's concern around housing affordability, and around job losses."

In a separate report, The Wall Street Journal cites The Freedonia Group's data showing that a frozen housing market has curbed demand for appliances, cabinets, and flooring, among other products.

Here's the latest read on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Bankrate, with rates hovering around 6.15%.

Latest news about the housing market ahead of the spring selling season: 

• Despite Rise In December, US Home Prices Saw Weakest Full-Year Gain Since 2011

• 2025 New Home Sales Highest Since 2021

Millions of Americans feel trapped in their homes or apartments as the Trump administration tries to thaw the nation's frozen housing market. The fallout has shown up across the housing ecosystem for the last few years, hitting firms from window manufacturers to retailers like Home Depot.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 11:30

Iran 'Ready' For 'Any Step' To Achieve US Deal, Oil Slides Ahead Of Trump SOTU

Tonight, when President Donald Trump will step into the House chamber to deliver his State of the Union address, it will undoubtedly be overshadowed by the prospect of coming conflict with Iran. 

Tehran will be up late (or early), carefully scrutinizing every word of the US leader, anticipating the what's next at a moment of massive Pentagon build-up in the region, including no less than two carrier groups. Iranian leadership, looking toward the big Trump speech tonight, has just offered that it's ready to do anything necessary to reach a deal to stave off an attack.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi has declared Tuesday that his country is "ready to take any necessary step to reach a deal with the US" but coupled with a warning that "a strike on Iran is a real gamble." This momentary or rhetorical 'concession' sent oil prices sliding...

Crude Oil Futures Price (WTI)

The big question tonight is whether President Trump will signal if he's still betting on diplomacy in the days ahead, or if he'll prepare the American public for full military action if talks fail.

The prospect of a new conflict in the Middle East remains deeply unpopular among Americans - even among many Republicans - recent poll after poll have demonstrated.

Again, the buildup toward a potential military confrontation with Iran has overshadowed the run-up to the address and all other issues - whether immigration, the economy, or even the Supreme Court's tariff halt decision.

With some 400 million barrels currently stuck on sanctioned tankers, it remains that a breakthrough Trump-Iran deal would suddenly release these supplies on the global market and prices would plunge.

3 days later, Goldman went and charted it https://t.co/9O6rSXcOhz pic.twitter.com/0PLe4CJkDA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 23, 2026

As for Iran's 'readiness' to do 'anything' - it's really still anything but clear whether the Islamic Republic would actually enter into dialogue on conventional missile limits. This remains unlikely, as reducing this capability would in effect neuter Iran's ability to defend itself or fight a war.

Will Trump tip his hand? "Bloomberg’s Courtney Subramanian framed Iran as one of the major flashpoints Trump may address as he tries to reset the national mood after a Supreme Court ruling struck down his global tariff regime," writes one regional source seen as close to the Israeli establishment. Citing Bloomberg, the same source says the SOTU speech "could provide a moment for Trump to explain why military action might be necessary, even as negotiations led by envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner continue in Geneva."

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 11:15

Yen Tumbles After Japan's PM Voices Concerns About Further Rate Hikes To BOJ

The yen was already sliding on Monday after Nikkei Asia reported that the sharp swing we saw in USDJPY in January was initiated by FX intervention from US Treasury Secretary Bessent not Tokyo, even if Washington, D.C. is open to coordinated forex moves if requested by Japan. FX traders took this as evidence that, contrary to previous conventional wisdom, Japanese authorities were prepared to allow the USDJPY to continue climbing on Jan. 23 and it was only US action which prevented a print at 160, or higher. At the time, investors were leaning toward the upcoming Japanese election as a reason for intransigence, but this report made it seem more like benign neglect of the currency.

Then yen then dropped some more after China added 20 Japanese firms - including affiliates of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries - to an export control blacklist, escalating the dispute between the two nations. 

But it was the third drop that was the biggest, and sent the USDJPY above 156, after Japan's Mainichi daily reported that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed reservations about additional interest rate hikes during her meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week. 

The report, if true, signals growing friction over monetary policy that could complicate the BOJ's timetable as coordination with the newly strengthened administration becomes more delicate, and as the new PM does what every other politicians has been so willing to do in recent years: support the stock market at all costs, surging inflation be damned. Oh, and by not hiking rates, Japan can pretend that its Japanese bond market game of musical chairs can extend a little bit longer. 

Ueda had (mis)characterized the meeting last Monday as a general exchange of views on economic and financial developments, and had said the prime minister had not made any specific monetary policy requests.

Takaichi herself has been coy about the particulars of their meeting, saying only that she hoped the central bank would work closely with the government to durably achieve its 2% inflation target accompanied by wage gains. 

The meeting was held amid raging speculation that the rising cost of living, driven in part by the weak yen - but mostly by the surging price in rice which the BOJ has no control over - could prompt the central bank to raise interest rates as soon as March or April. In December, the BOJ raised rates to a 30-year high of 0.75% and signaled further hikes were possible.

A Reuters poll this month showed that a majority of economists expect the BOJ to raise its key rate to 1% by the end of June, with some anticipating a move as soon as April because of mounting concerns about inflationary pressures and a weak yen. Odds of a rate hike have certainly tumbled after last night's report. 

Following the Mainichi report, the yen tumbled, and the USDJPY surged by 100 pips, rising to 156, the highest price it has been in 2 weeks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 11:00

After Four Years Of War, Zelensky Wants All Land Back

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Tuesday marks four years since Russia first launched its invasion of Ukraine, and, despite President Trump promising to end the war quickly, there's no end in sight to the conflict as Russian and Ukrainian leadership haven't budged on their core demands for a peace deal.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reaffirmed in an interview with the BBC over the weekend that he wouldn’t cede the territory Ukraine still controls in the eastern Donbas region and defined "victory" as Ukraine regaining all of the land it has lost to Russia since February 2022.

Zelensky awarding a medal to a Ukrainian soldier on February 23, 2026 Source: Office of the President of Ukraine.

Ukraine ceding the Donbas is a key Russian demand to end the war, and President Trump has repeatedly called for Zelensky to do so, arguing that Ukraine will likely lose the territory in bloody battles in the coming months and years. When asked by the BBC interviewer if he thought it was a “reasonable request” for a ceasefire, Zelensky said he didn’t agree.

"I see this differently. I don’t look at it simply as land. I see it as abandonment – weakening our positions, abandoning hundreds of thousands of our people who live there. That is how I see it. And I am sure that this ‘withdrawal’ would divide our society," Zelensky said.

When asked whether he still sought to regain all the land Ukraine has lost, Zelensky answered in the affirmative but suggested he needed more help from his Western backers to do so.

"We'll do it. That is absolutely clear. It is only a matter of time. To do it today would mean losing a huge number of people – millions of people – because the [Russian] army is large, and we understand the cost of such steps. You would not have enough people, you would be losing them. And what is land without people? Honestly, nothing," Zelensky said.

"And we also don’t have enough weapons. That depends not just on us, but on our partners. So as of now that’s not possible but returning to the just borders of 1991 without a doubt, is not only a victory, it’s justice. Ukraine’s victory is the preservation of our independence, and a victory of justice for the whole world is the return of all our lands," he added.

Another major sticking point in the negotiations is the issue of security guarantees. Zelensky and many European leaders want troops from NATO nations to deploy to Ukrainian territory with the backing of US airpower after a peace deal is signed, but Russian officials have repeatedly rejected the idea and made clear that the condition is a non-starter.

Zelensky said in the BBC interview that he wants whatever security guarantee he gets from the US to last 30 years. He made the comments when asked about the Trump administration’s call for him to hold elections, saying that US security guarantees would need to be in place before that happened.

Russian and Ukrainian officials held talks in Geneva last week, but there’s been no sign of progress. Russia maintains it won't agree to a deal unless its key demands are met, which include Ukraine ceding the territory and guarantees on Ukraine not joining NATO, and has made clear it's willing to continue the grinding war to achieve those goals.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 10:45

Former Norway PM Attempts Suicide After Epstein-Linked Raid, Corruption Charges: Report

Norway's former Prime Minister Thorbjørn Jagland was hospitalized a week ago after a failed suicide attempt, days after he was charged with "gross corruption" after a police probe into his ties with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, local outlet iNyheter reports. 

Thorbjorn Jagland, a former prime minister of Norway, in Oslo February 12th. 

Jagland, 75, who gave Barack Obama a Nobel peace price less than nine months into his presidency, was charged on February 12 after police carried out an extensive search of his properties - including apartments in Oslo and in Risør.

The man who shockingly awarded the newly elected Barack Obama the Nobel peace prize in 2009, and who was chair of the Nobel Committee from 2009 to 2015, was an Epstein Island regular pic.twitter.com/ObuEO3pB5C

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 4, 2026

According to the report, Norway's Økokrim - which investigates economic and environmental crimes - took the serious step of sending a letter to the Council of Europe requesting that Jagland's immunity be lifted. It was revoked one day before the raids took place. In the letter, Økokrim says that Jagland and his immediate family used Epstein's private apartments in Paris and New York multiple times between 2011 and 2018, and stayed at Epstein's villa in Palm Beach, Florida - with travel being likely covered by Epstein in connection with one of the stays. 

Epstein also reportedly paid for travel and hotel costs for Jagland and five other adults in the Caribbean, and reportedly asked Epstein for a loan, though it's unclear whether that was actually made. 

If convicted, and he doesn't successfully kill himself, Jagland faces up to a decade in prison if convicted. 

In one 2018 email exchange, Epstein wrote to Jagland suggesting that "I think you might suggest to Putin, that Lavrov, can get insight on talking to me."

Jagland served as Norway's Prime Minister from 1996 to 1997, and held other prominent international roles - including Secretary General of the Council of Europe (2009-2019) and chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee. 

Apparently Epstein was in bed with several top Norwegians;

Other prominently placed Norwegians are also facing new scrutiny, including Crown Princess Mette-Marit, Borge Brende, an ex-foreign minister who now runs the World Economic Forum, and Mona Juul, who this week was suspended from her role as ambassador to Jordan and quickly resigned. There has been fallout from the release of the Epstein files around the world, and though seemingly no region’s elites have been immune, Norway has been hard hit. -NYT

Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store says he supports an independent inquiry and will testify if asked about his time as a former foreign minister. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 10:30

1, 2, 3, 4, 5 And 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Depressingly, today marks the start of the fifth year of the Ukraine War: a battered Ukraine is still standing against a bruised Russia; the US is still aiming for a peace deal so it can pivot to Asia; and Europe --even as it knows it has to look after both Ukraine and its own conventional defenses after decades of having this provided for it-- is still trying to get its act together.

Despite its rhetoric, with a few notable exceptions European rearmament isn’t happening with appropriate scale and speed. Is Ukraine supposed to hold on until 2035, when EU defense budgets will be at the promised 3.5% of GDP? 

EU ministers also just failed to agree their 20th sanctions package on Russia, and Hungary is blocking the €90bn loan to Ukraine the EU had thrashed out. As such, the EU’s Kallas is reopening the controversial Russian frozen assets option shelved in December, which Belgium refused to go along with it. That’s as the UK Telegraph reports that “Kremlin spies” are acquiring ‘Trojan horse’ networks of sites in residential homes near European military bases that could be used to launch sabotage campaigns.

Meanwhile, we appear very close to a new war in the Middle East. Forget Bloomberg headlines and Iranian sabre-rattling. Look to: the USS Ford steaming towards Haifa; US troops removed from bases in Qatar; US staff removed from the embassy in Lebanon; former senior Israeli officials told to return home from abroad immediately; Israel preparing to shutter its embassies; a major underground hospital being opened in Tel Aviv; US Secretary of State Rubio postponing his planned meeting in Israel to next week; Indian PM Modi to speak in the Knesset tomorrow as part of what is claimed will be the announcement of a new extremist coalition (which will also have some EU members); and PM Netanyahu telling the Knesset: “This is not a time to engage in arguing. I am setting that aside. We are in very complex and challenging days. No one knows what tomorrow will bring. We have our eye open and are prepared for every scenario. I have made it clear to the ayatollah regime that if they make an error, perhaps the severest error in their history, and attack Israel, we will respond with force that they cannot imagine…. we must rally the ranks of the nation and stand shoulder to shoulder.”  

Importantly, what looms is not a repeat of the Iran-Israel clashes we correctly predicted following October 7: logically, if it’s to happen, it will be an endgame. The Iranian regime’s response will be appropriate, as seen vs its own people, up to 30,000 of whom may have died while protesting against it. In that respect, if Iran feels it’s going to lose control --which is never has until now-- it will do whatever it can to fan the global flames as high as possible for as long as possible.

In the recent Greenland Crisis, we stressed that in 2026 Europe is the Egypt of 1956’s Suez Crisis and the US is still the US. Iran’s goal will be to try to make the US into the UK and France of 1956 via markets telling Trump to pack up and go home rather than play grand macro strategy in the Middle East.

Of course, that involves energy flows – and it’s Iran’s physical ability to stop them that matters more than the politics or “because markets” of it. Could Hormuz be mined or see suicide attacks on tankers? Could missile attacks hit Saudi oil given reports Iran will have heard that Riyadh now backs a US strike? Could there be terror attacks from sleeper cells across the region and the West against civilians or key infrastructure? None of this is available on Bloomberg, so are you sure?

Look to the cartel violence in Mexico as an example of how one can be relaxing one minute and fleeing from gunfire the next. There, following President Shenbaum’s evacuation to a naval vessel for her own safety, the WSJ reports, ‘Mexico Races to Prevent Cartel War’.

That’s plenty of ‘risk off’ for markets. But there’s far more afoot.

Stocks were rocked by a viral report underlining the devastating impact of AI on the economy as another claimed UK unemployment will rise above its pandemic high within months: you think the UK by-election on Thursday shows a fragmented and polarized polity now? Such views overlook the need for resources to power AI but are worth considering – so is the struggle for those resources, which hardly says we are all going to sit and sing kumbaya together.

The US is leaning on Anthropic to get with the (military-industrial) program or be on the outs; and Anthropic is reporting China set up 16,000 fake accounts to use Claude to train DeepSeek. That effectively allows China access to Nvidia chips indirectly. Again, no kumbaya here but rather more controls on who can get access to US AI ahead – and notably that’s as India is strategically looped into the US AI ecosystem. If we are developing separate supply chains from critical minerals up to chips, how does that allow for a “because markets” free trade in the end product AI? Answer: it doesn’t. Walls will go up. Which/whose side you are on will dictate what AI you can use as a consumer.

Relatedly, Trump eviscerated the ‘supreme court’ (no capital letters) and stressed --correctly-- that their ruling allowed him to “use Licenses to do absolutely “terrible” things to foreign countries,” and that tariffs can “be used in a much more powerful and obnoxious way, with legal certainty.” He later added another point also clear to us: any country that thinks it can wriggle out of US trade deals will face even higher tariffs. Moreover, the WSJ reports Trump is considering new 232 and 301 national security tariffs on large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic piping, industrial chemicals and power grid and telecom equipment.

Yet as France bans the US ambassador from talking to its government, the EU Parliament put the US trade deal on ice. Expect US-EU tensions to rise further, it seems. By contrast, Japan has underlined that it’s sticking with its trade deal and the $550bn of pledged, and guided, investment into the US. The contrast between the two is stark – and markets should take note.

More so given the Nikkei Asia reports the marked swing we saw in USD/JPY in January was initiated by FX intervention from US Treasury Secretary Bessent not Tokyo, even if Washington, D.C. is open to coordinated forex moves if requested by Japan. In short, FX markets don’t get to focus on simple risk on/off and the likes of rate differentials anymore: they have to focus on the geopolitics of geoeconomics and who wants to help, and hurt, whom, and how.

Similarly, the WSJ reports that crypto firm Binance fired staff who flagged $1bn moving to sanctioned Iran entities, which sounds like something the Treasury and Pentagon might also like a word about. Moreover, the Trump-backed crypto group World Liberty’s stablecoin says it was the subject of a deliberate attack. Bitcoin is also having a bad time of it rather than rallying on all the above uncertainty. And as those at the leading edge of markets thrash around for what the emerging global architecture may be, China is pushing Hong Kong as its global gold trading hub.

All of this is the backdrop to President Trump’s State of the Union address tonight at 9PM US eastern time. Start the countdown clocks to that piece of political theatre – with what surprises for the viewing audience?

Five, four, three, two, one…

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 10:20

Despite Crazy Revisions, Consumer Confidence Rebounds From January's Doom

After Boomers and Gen X dragged The Conference Board Confidence measure down to eight month lows to end 2025, expectations were for a rebound to start 2026.

Instead, January was a bloodbath with all the cohorts tumbling. Today sees February's data released with expectations for a rebound, particularly in expectations... and the consensus was right.

• The headline Consumer Confidence print rose from 84.5 (revised dramatically up to 89.0) to 91.2 (better than the 87.1 expected)

• Under the hood it was kind of crazy with the dismal Present Situation print for January of 113.7 dramatically revised up to 121.8, which meant the 120.0 print for February was actually a decline MoM (but better than expected).

• The Expectations sub-index rose from a revised 67.2 to 72.0 (also better than expected).

So, overall, confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat.

“Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumers’ minds,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

“Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February.”

With Expectations at their lowest since COVID...

Source: Bloomberg

The survey cutoff date was Feb. 17, before the Supreme Court struck down most of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.

Finally, under the hood, The Conference Board survey shows the trend of a weaker labor market continued to accelerate...

Source: Bloomberg

Circling back to where we started, how exactly do you 'revise' consumer expectations (especially so dramatically?)

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 10:09

Moscow Claims NATO Nuke Smuggling Plot Into Ukraine - UK Denounces 'Heinous' Charge

It's hard to know what's true amid the fog of war, but when Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) comes out with whatever new accusation it lodges against Ukraine it usually 'goes big'.

That's true of the latest statement Tuesday, which happens to mark the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Ukraine invasion of 2022. The SVR is newly alleging that France and the UK are plotting to secretly arm Ukraine with a nuclear weapon.

French M51 submarine-launched ballistic missile. Photo credits: Marine Nationale

According to the agency, British and French officials are considering the "covert transfer of relevant European-made components, equipment, and technologies to Ukraine" - and are in parallel laying the groundwork for an information campaign that would misrepresent the nuclear capacity as domestically developed.

Russian sources and state media strongly suggest their belief that this is still just in planning stages, and that several options are being considered, including that Ukraine could be provided with a French TN 75 warhead, currently in the the French Navy's submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

There's also the option of Western assistance to help Kiev build a 'dirty bomb' - which has long been a feared weapon in the context of the grinding Ukraine conflict, given it spreads radioactive material far and wide, among urban areas.

TASS and others have cited the SVR in framing this as an act of desperation given Ukrainian forces are being rolled back piecemeal on the battlefield:

According to its information, the British and French elites are unwilling to accept defeat. "It is believed that Ukraine should be supplied with a ‘Wunderwaffe’ (German for ‘miracle weapon’ - TASS). Kiev would be able to aspire to more advantageous terms of ceasing the hostilities if it possesses a nuclear or at least a so-called ‘dirty’ bomb," the statement said.

The suggestion is that the Western allies supporting Ukraine would do anything rather than admit defeat, even the unthinkable.

Here's more from an official state media translation from the SVR's media office:

"At present, according to the information available to the Russian SVR, London and Paris are actively working over the issue of providing Kiev with a weapon of this kind, as well as with means of its delivery. This involves a covert transfer of relevant European-made components, equipment and technologies to Ukraine. As an option, the French small-size TN-75 warhead from the M51.1 submarine-launched ballistic missile is being considered," the press bureau pointed out. At the same time, "Berlin has prudently refused to take part in this dangerous venture."

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, the British and the French realize that their plot is "a gross violation of the international law, first of all the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and carries the risk of destroying the global non-proliferation system." "Consequently, the Westerners’ main efforts are focused on making Kiev’s possession of nuclear weapon look like it was developed by the Ukrainians themselves," the statement said. "Great Britain and France are aware that the situation developing in Ukraine leaves no chances for them to achieve the ardently desired victory over Russia with the hands of the Ukrainian armed forces," the SVR noted.

The statement concludes by an allegation that NATO countries are "losing touch with reality" their reckless efforts to impose defeat on Russia in Ukraine, and so are willing to seriously contemplate a 'dirty bomb' - as losses mount.

The Kremlin has meanwhile not been forthcoming with any specific evidence, and the SVR has not revealed the types of sourcing underlying its serious allegations.

That's it. For the first time since 1972, Russia (the former USSR) and the US have no treaty limiting strategic nuclear forces. SALT 1, SALT 2, START I, START II, SORT, New START – all in the past. pic.twitter.com/D3TBZM9ffC

— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) February 4, 2026

But according to RIA, the Russian government is taking all of this seriously enough for Putin's office to say it plans to inform the United States about these potential nuclear aspirations of Ukraine and its European backers.

Downing Street has so far been among the first to dismiss the allegation, with the UK Prime Minister's official spokesman saying: "This is a clear attempt by Vladimir Putin to distract from his heinous actions in Ukraine" and that "there is no truth to this."

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 10:00

Jittery Futures Erase Gains Amid AI Doomsday Fears

A short rebound in stocks fizzled after Monday's drop, as worries about the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence continued to unsettle markets which digested yesterday’s AI scare, and await today’s Claude / Anthropic presentation, while preparing for tonight’s State of the Union address (“SOTU”). Some have suggested that Trump may attack power generation risks during SOTU as he deals with affordability.As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures traded unchanged, erasing an earlier 0.3% gain. The benchmark fell 1% in the previous session following a sharp drop in dealer gamma and a report that rehashes well-known fears about AI. Nasdaq 100 contracts climbed 0.1%, as AMD soared 11% on a $100 billion deal with Meta for data-center gear and a minority investment in the chipmaker. Other Mag7 are all mostly higher while an ETF tracking software firms was flat. IBM remained little changed following a 13% tumble. Nvidia Corp. fell 1.2% ahead of its results on Wednesday. Sentiment was also dented after Jamie Dimon said he’s starting to see parallels with the pre-financial crisis era, when a rush to make loans ended disastrously. At midnight, the US's 10% blanket tariff went into effect with Trump threatening to raise to 15%. Bond yields aso reversed an earlier gain and were unchanged while the USD was bid driven by a spike in the USDJPY after Takaichi pushed back on rate hikes. Commodities are seeing a muted move today with Energy up, Metals down, and Ags mixed; oil has closed in a tight range the last 3 sessions and remains in those levels. Today’s macro data focus is weekly ADP, home price indices, regional Fed activity indicators, and Consumer Confidence. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks:are mostly higher (Alphabet +0.1%, Amazon +0.1%, Apple +0.4%, Nvidia -0.7%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft +0.1%, Tesla -0.5%)

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rises 11% as  Meta Platforms Inc. will deploy 6 gigawatts’ worth of data center gear based on processors from the company.
• Blue Owl (OWL) slips 2% following a downgrade to hold at Deutsche Bank, which also reduces price targets and estimates across its wider alternative asset manager coverage.
• BWX Technologies (BWXT) rises 8% after the nuclear power company reported adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the fourth-quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) falls 5% after the telehealth company’s guidance projected subdued profits for 1Q and the full year, citing a step-up in investments. While the full-year guidance implied a growth acceleration beyond 1Q, analysts were more cautious given its copycat weight-loss drugs face regulatory risks.
• Home Depot Inc. (HD) rises 2% after reporting a key sales metric that beat expectations in the latest quarter on steady demand, though the retailer cautioned that macroeconomic challenges remain.
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS) rises 15% after the measurement instruments company guided for above-20% growth for revenue and earnings in FY26, beating estimates. Booming AI workloads, along with faster growth in other business areas including wireless and defense, are all boosting growth, according to analysts.
• Kratos (KTOS) falls 3% after the defense contractor forecast revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• MediaAlpha (MAX) rises 11% after the insurance technology platform reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook. Analysts downplayed the risk of AI-related disruption.
• Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) rises 29% after the drug developer said a late-stage trial of its experimental therapy for lymphatic malformations met its main goal.
• Paymentus Holdings (PAY) falls 9% after the cloud-based bill payment company’s revenue guidance for 2026 came in below the average analyst estimate.
• Planet Fitness (PLNT) falls 5% after the operator of fitness clubs gave an outlook for 2026 adjusted Ebitda growth that implies the profit measure will fall short of Wall Street expectations.
• Super Group (SGHC) rises 16% as the gaming company’s full-year revenue forecast exceeded Wall Street’s estimates.
• Vir Biotechnology (VIR) jumps 57% after the drug developer gave updated data from an early-stage trial for its investigative therapy for prostate cancer and said it is collaborating with Astellas Pharma on the same asset.
• Whirlpool (WHR) falls 8% after the maker of kitchen appliances  announced concurrent separate underwritten public offerings of shares of common stock and depositary shares.
• Ziff Davis (ZD) falls 10% after the digital media and Internet company reported fourth-quarter results that missed expectations. It also deferred its 2026 outlook as it evaluates options.

In corporate news, Anthropic is said to be offering some current and former employees the ability to sell shares at a valuation of about $350 billion. Meta and EssilorLuxottica are said to be at odds on pricing for smart glasses as demand surges. Jane Street is being sued for alleged insider trading by the administrator winding up the affairs of Terraform Labs.

After yesterday's market fragility which was sparked by last week's plunge in dealer gamma...

Gamma plunges into the red and today is what you get pic.twitter.com/6WQWs4xUUS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 23, 2026

... and reinforced by a hypothetical report which echoed what we first said in 2024, nervousness abounds, and the market will be tested again when Anthropic holds its livestream at 9:30 a.m when even more volatility is likely. Adding to nerves, Jamie Dimon said he’s starting to see parallels with the pre-financial crisis era, when a rush to make loans ended disastrously.

The so-called AI scare trade has become a dominant theme for stocks, with selling spreading beyond software to hit insurance brokers, private credit and even real estate services. The flight is one of several shifts beneath the surface of a US market that is little changed in 2026 after years of tech-led gains. Traders are also contending with a range of other risks, from trade uncertainty to brewing tensions between the US and Iran. Focus on Tuesday will turn to President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address and consumer data that, in the previous reading, plunged to the lowest level since 2014. Anthropic meanwhile, will give a demo of its AI enterprise agents.

“We are reducing our risk levels by a notch,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Jefferies International. “Ongoing concerns over AI disruption and the possible exposure to private credit and private equity have made investor sentiment fragile. If we do get an escalation in geopolitical risks, markets may face some wobbles.”

For Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc, fears about labor-market disruption need to be counterbalanced by the job creation that typically accompanies technological progress.  As for software stocks, which have now been mispriced, “it’s very hard to go prove the market wrong on that,” Cau told Bloomberg TV. “What we are trying to do from an equity allocation standpoint is to be exposed to some of these old-economy, more tangible parts of the market.”

The quest for shelter from AI disruption has moved Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to push a new basket of capital-heavy companies, including utilities, miners, some industrial firms and even luxury-good makers. The selection has outperformed a basket of capital-light businesses by 35% since the start of 2025.

“Markets are rewarding capacity, networks, infrastructure and engineering complexity—assets that are costly to replicate and less exposed to technological obsolescence,” the Goldman team, including Guillaume Jaisson, said in a note.

In geopolitics, Trump said an Iran strike would be “easily won” but he would prefer a diplomatic deal.

After Trump’s new 10% global tariff went into effect on Tuesday and a timeline for a proposed higher rate of 15% is still in question, investors will listen for any further comments on trade in his State of the Union speech. “It’s going to be a long speech,” Trump said. The US is also said to be readying a spate of additional national security investigations that would enable Trump to impose new duties. An EU assessment found that Trump’s new policy will increase levies on some exports, including cheese and some agricultural products, above the level permitted in their trade pact. 

“The focus for investors will be on three issues: tariffs, Iran and the Fed,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “Any hint that a military strike against Iran is imminent should trigger another rally in oil and gold prices. If Trump uses his platform to bully the Supreme Court or the Fed, Treasury markets will not take that lightly.”

Home Depot, Keurig Dr Pepper and Fidelity National are among companies scheduled to report results before the market open. Home Depot’s commentary on the housing market will be a key focus and whether consumers remain on the sidelines for big projects due to high interest and mortgage rates. Earnings from HP and Workday follow later.

European equities edged lower on Tuesday with banking and insurance stocks leading declines, while automobiles and utilities were the biggest outperformers. The Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% to 626.46 with 242 members down, 351 up, and seven little changed. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Convatec rises as much as 11%, most since November 2024, following full-year results that showed stronger-than-expected second-half revenue performance and raised medium-term growth guidance
• Edenred shares gain as much as 9.3% after the payment solutions firm delivered better earnings and cashflow than anticipated against a backdrop of low expectations, according to Barclays
• Endesa shares jumped 6.2% to the highest level since June 2008 after the Spanish utility firm reported net income for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate and gave a new guidance that Jefferies says is ahead of consensus
• Sika shares gain as much as 3.1% after its board of directors proposes to the Annual General Meeting on March 24 that the gross dividend be increased by 2.8% to CHF3.70 from CHF3.60 previous year, according to a statement
• Banks are the worst performing sector in Europe on Tuesday, tracking declines for US peers, as fears about AI disruption and private credit lending continue to rattle the market
• Novo Nordisk shares fell as much as 4.4% on Tuesday to the lowest intraday level since June 2021, after analysts cut recommendations and price targets for the Danish drugmaker
• Rio Tinto shares drop as much as 1.5% in London after Barclays downgrades to equal-weight from overweight. The analyst says the move reflects near-term headwinds, including iron ore seasonality
• Galenica falls as much as 8.2%, most since July 2022, after UBS downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, expecting liberalization of OTC drug shipments to pose downside risk to sales growth and margin expansion
• Wienerberger falls as much as 6.6%, the most in 10 months, after Morgan Stanley said the full-year outlook of the brick manufacturer came in below estimates ahead of its capital markets day
• MTU Aero shares fall as much as 6.4%, the most since April, after the German engine manufacturer’s cash flow missed expectations

Asian stocks showed resilience after US peers witnessed another selloff on AI disruption fears, as investors snapped up shares of the region’s tech hardware companies — particularly semiconductor makers.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.1%, reversing an early decline that followed a 1% slide in the S&P 500 Index on Monday. Chipmaking giants TSMC, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were the biggest boosts to the Asian benchmark. They also helped key local gauges in Taiwan and South Korea rally more than 2%. The so-called “AI scare trade” was back in focus after a report by Citrini Research outlined the potential risks to various segments of the global economy, and subsequent warnings from Anthropic and Nassim Taleb soured sentiment. Like in some recent episodes of AI-led selloffs, Asia was able to perform better as the region’s tech sector is dominated by tech hardware firms, notably memory and logic chip makers, which are seen benefiting from sustained demand tied to AI infrastructure build-outs. “Clearly semiconductors are huge winners,” Alap Shah, co-author of the Citrini report, said on Bloomberg Television. “Things that are upstream to semiconductors are huge winners — so everything required to construct a data center.”

In FX, the yen tumbled following local media reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voiced apprehension about more rate hikes in a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Currency markets otherwise calm, with Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1%.

In rates, treasuries are unchanged the curve flatter as 5s30s spread partly unwinds Monday’s sharp steepening move.US 10-year yield near 4.035% is less than 1bp higher on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 1bp and 2bp respectively; 2s10s and 5s30s curve spreads are 0.5bp and 1.5bp tighter on the day. European bonds marginally outperform following UK’s £3 billion auction of 2033 bonds and French manufacturing confidence gauge. US session includes packed economic data and Fed speaker slates as well as a 2-year note auction at 1pm New York time.

In commodities, gold prices are down and below $5,200/oz, but copper rallying on the return of traders in China after the Lunar New Year break. Oil little changed, with Brent sitting around $71.50/barrel. Bitcoin weaker and getting close to $63,000.

The US economic calendar slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), February Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), December FHFA house price index, 4Q house price purchase index and December S&P Cotality home prices (9am), February Richmond Fed manufacturing index and consumer confidence and December wholesale trade inventories (10am) and February Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (8am, 9:30am), Collins and Bostic (9am), Waller (9:15am), Cook (9:30am) and Barkin (3:15pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini unch
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed,
• DAX -0.1%,
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.03%
• VIX -0.1 points at 20.93
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1190.43,
• euro unchanged at $1.1785
• WTI crude +0.3% at $66.49/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump dismissed reports the Pentagon fears a difficult Iran campaign, saying the Joint Chiefs chairman believes military action would be “easily won.” The president insisted he prefers a diplomatic deal. BBG
• The Trump administration is considering new national security tariffs on a half-dozen industries in the wake of a Supreme Court decision last week that invalidated many of the president’s second-term levies. The new tariffs being considered could cover industries such as large-scale batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic piping, industrial chemicals and power grid and telecom equipment. WSJ
• US President Trump will use the State of the Union address to sell the public on the economy and unveil new measures to lower cost ahead of the mid-terms: WSJ.
• China has restricted exports of rare earth magnets and other critical materials to dozens of leading Japanese companies in an escalation of a dispute with Tokyo. FT
• Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's latest AI model, set to be released as soon as next week, was trained on Nvidia's most advanced AI chip, the Blackwell, a senior Trump administration official said on Monday, in what could represent a violation of U.S. export controls. RTRS
• Japanese PM Takaichi expressed reservations about additional interest rate hikes during her meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week. FT
• The UK announced new sanctions on Russia — its biggest since the early months of the Ukraine invasion — targeting energy firms and suppliers of military equipment. BBG
• Zelenskyy said Russia and Ukraine were at the “beginning of the end” of Europe’s biggest conflict since the second world war, but urged Washington to see through Putin’s negotiating “games.” FT
• Trump is implementing a new global tariff at 10% rather than the 15% rate announced over the weekend after his defeat at the Supreme Court. His move to apply a 10% for the time being rather than the 15% tariffs follows a backlash to the higher rate from several US trading partners such as the EU and UK. FT
• Alap Shah, co-author of a Citrini report that triggered yesterday’s selloff, suggested governments consider taxing AI to cushion the impact of job losses. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump's 10% global tariff rate takes effect.
• China's Commerce Ministry called on US to abandon unilateral tariff; will adjust countermeasures and monitor US actions. Willing to hold 6th round of trade talks with the US.
• China MOFCOM adds 20 Japanese companies including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to its export control list for military activities which bans exports of dual-use items, while it will add another 20 groups to a watch list.
• EU warns the US that President Trump's new tariff policy breaks the trade agreement.
• Japan's finance minister Katayama said will closely examine details of US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, adds will steadily carry out US-bound investment package and Japan must be aware that US tariffs on cars remain in effect.
• Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa held a phone conversation with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Monday, and both sides affirmed investment plans in the call.
• US President Trump's administration is likely to face tough legal obstacles if it opposes refunds for the tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court, according to Bloomberg.
• US President Trump reportedly considers new national security tariffs after SCOTUS ruling, in which new levies on a half-dozen industries would be issued separately from the new global 15% flat-rate tariff, according to WSJ.
• Taiwan Vice Premier said preferential terms reached with the US under tariff and trade deal would not change, and that they will have proactive talks with the US to ensure their interests protected under deals already reached with Washington.
• China announces that the hot-rolled steel coil issue with South Korea has been resolved.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded with a mostly positive bias as key participants returned to the market and with the region attempting to shrug off the weak lead from Wall St, where sentiment was weighed on by trade uncertainty and AI disruption concerns. ASX 200 struggled for direction as outperformance in the mining, energy and resources sectors was offset by losses in tech, real estate and financials, while participants continued to digest a slew of earnings. Nikkei 225rallied to back above the 57,000 level on return from the long weekend, but is off today's best levels amid losses in tech stocks and after China's MOFCOM added 20 Japanese companies to its export control list, which bans Chinese exports of dual-use items. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland boosted on return from a 10-day closure and got the first opportunity to react to the recent US tariff developments, which are seen to benefit China the most, while the Hong Kong benchmark underperformed in a reversal of the prior day's rally amid notable losses in tech and pharmaceuticals.

Top Asian News

• Several senior US officials said the “rate checks” carried out when the yen weakened in January were initiated by US Treasury Secretary Bessent rather than at Japan’s request, according to Nikkei. US officials indicated that coordinated intervention to buy yen and sell dollars would have been considered if requested by Japan.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said Japan is keeping close dialogue with the US on Forex, according to the Wall Street Journal.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) are broadly weaker, with the IBEX 35 (-0.7%) the clear laggard as Banks weigh on the index. On the other hand, the SMI (+0.6%) is printing modest gains. European sectors, on the contrary, show a positive bias, with Utilities (+1.7%) and Materials (+0.7%) outperforming, helped by the likes of Sika (+1.9%), Givaudan (+2.2%) and Croda (+2.7%). Sika shares are rising this morning as the Board proposes to lift the gross dividend per share by 2.8%. Croda announced its FY25 earnings, with its revenue and EBITDA metrics rising Y/Y and FY26 guidance in line with forecasts. This is helping the broader Chemicals sector rise. On the other hand, Banks (-1.1%) have been hit this morning following weak Q4 earnings by Standard Chartered (-1.9%) and the effects of Anthropic's Claude on jobs as the code can now automate COBOL modernisation efforts.

Top European News

• French Business Climate Indicator (Feb) 97 (Prev. 99).
• French Business Confidence (Feb) 102 vs. Exp. 104 (Prev. 105).

FX

• DXY is mildly firmer this morning, and trades at the mid-point of a 97.69-97.95 range; the high of the day is a pip above its 50 DMA. The theme in the US remains firmly on a) the trade situation and b) the growing woes surrounding AI – spurring increased uncertainty about the US economy, and hence the USD. Nonetheless, the index is firmer this morning, largely thanks to considerable pressure in the JPY (more on that below). For the time being, focus will be on some Tier 2 US data including Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index and ADP Employment Change Weekly – Fed speak today includes, Waller (voter, dove), Cook (voter, neutral), Barkin (2027 voter, neutral), Goolsbee (2027 Voter, Dovish), Bostic (retiring, hawk), Collins (2028 voter, neutral). Thereafter, US President Trump is set to deliver his State of the Union address, where he is expected to speak on the economy, new policies and potentially trade (02:00 GMT Wednesday / 21:00 EST Tuesday).
• JPY is shunned today, currently off by around 0.8%, with USD/JPY trading at the upper end of a 154.52 to 156.27 range – the pair currently pivots its 50 DMA at 155.97. Overnight, pressure stemmed from reports that US Treasury Secretary Bessent initiated rate checks, rather than those occurring at the request of the Japanese. The weakness in JPY was then exacerbated by source reports that PM Takaichi relayed to BoJ Governor Ueda her reservations about further rate hikes; she was reportedly "stricter than at the previous meeting", in November. As a reminder, the PM and Ueda met last week, where traders assigned some risk that the PM would ask Ueda to cull future rate hikes; despite this, Ueda suggested that the PM "didn't have any particular requests".
• Finally, G10 peers are broadly incrementally firmer/flat against the USD. Antipodeans benefit from the constructive sentiment seen in the APAC session, and as base metals remain bid. EUR/USD remains steady within a narrow 1.1767-1.1796 range; the low for today is a handful of pips below its 50 DMA at 1.1772.

Central Banks

• Japanese PM Takaichi reportedly relayed to BoJ Governor Ueda her reservations about further rate hikes, according to Mainichi citing sources.
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Feb) 3.00% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 3.00%).
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Feb) 3.50% vs. Exp. 3.50% (Prev. 3.50%).
• NBP's Glapinski said monetary policy needs to be cautious.

Fixed Income

• JGBs were boosted this morning by a Mainichi report that PM Takaichi relayed reservations to BoJ Governor Ueda about further tightening, with Takaichi's stance described by the sources as "stricter" vs their last meeting. This lifted JGBs by around 30 ticks to a 133.10 peak.
• USTs flat, in a narrow 113-07+ to 113-13 band. Awaiting further updates on the AI disruption narrative, US-Iran and numerous Fed officials. From those, the most pertinent include Cook (voter), who, in early February, said she supported waiting after December to cut again and described tariff price-rises as temporary. Waller (voter) has already spoken post-SCOTUS, saying the impact would likely be limited. The docket also includes 2027 voters, Barkin & Goolsbee, and 2028 voter Collins.
• Bunds firmer by around 10 ticks, holding just off a 129.73 peak which is just above Monday's 129.71 best. ECB's Lagarde theoretically headlines the docket, though she has spoken extensively recently. As such, the benchmark will likely conform to leads from USTs and the global risk tone if there is an AI/tariff/US-Iran update.
• Gilts also firmer by around 10 ticks and at a 92.97 peak, taking out the high from January and notching a fresh YTD and contract best. For the UK, the main event is the Treasury Select Committee. Pertinently, Governor Bailey headlines the outing alongside known dove Taylor and the hawkish Greene & Pill. The Governor and the two hawkish members are the focus, for any hint that the recent string of data and/or tariff updates have pushed them towards easing in the near-term. Commentary that will, by extension, inform on the ongoing debate between March and April, with 21bps of easing implied for March and 27bps in April.
• Italy sold EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 2.20% 2028 BTP Short Term & EUR 2.0bln vs exp. EUR 1.5-2bln 1.10% 2031, 1.80% 2036 BTPei.
• UK sold GBP 3bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.37x (prev. 3.18x), average yield 4.075% (prev. 4.296%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Japan's Finance Ministry is said to mull tweaking liquidity-enhancement auctions and reduce super-long supply further to steady yields.
• Australia sold AUD 1.2bln 4.25% March 2036 bonds, b/c 2.71, avg. yield 4.6969%.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks remain mostly firmer amid the ongoing geopolitical update between the US and Iran over the last few week which has seen a gradual escalation over recent weeks. WTI and Brent trade at the upper end of their respective USD 66.16-66.95/bbl and USD 70.87-71.78/bbl, ranges.
• Spot gold has eroded some of Monday's upside, hovering just below the USD 5,200/oz mark, with recent USD strength weighing. XAU and XAG trade in the lower ranges of USD 5135.135-5250.005/oz and 84.785-88.756/oz, respectively.
• Copper prices have picked up, coinciding with its largest buyer, China, returning to the market after the holiday period. As such, the red metal trades above the USD 13k/t mark. That aside, there hasn’t been much newsflow regarding the red metal. Currently, 3M LME copper trades in the upper range of USD 13.005-13.061k/t.
• UBS said spot gold may reach USD 6,200/oz in the near future as the factors fuelling its recent rally remain intact.
• The UK imposes new sanction on Russia's Transneft oil operation.
• Shanghai Gold Exchange said it is to cut margin ratio and price limits for some gold and silver contracts from the closing settlement on February 24th.
• Chevron (CVX) has entered exclusive talks to take over Lukoil's stake in Iraq's West Kerner II oil field (480k bpd), as US sanctions pressure the Russian firm to divest.
• New Zealand is to lower the price cap on Russian crude oil.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin highlights that the special operation goals have not yet been achieved, cannot provide a date for the next round of Ukraine talks.
• Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Russia will seek to find a solution to the problem of NATO's expansion to its borders by military or political means. Added that without solving the problem of NATO's expansion to Russia's borders, it is impossible to solve the situation in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said we will do everything necessary to ensure a strong and lasting peace.

Geopolitics: Middle East 

• Iran reportedly nears a deal to purchase anti-ship missiles from China, according to sources.
• Israeli official tells Yedioth Ahronoth that a US attack on Iran is imminent.
• US President Trump said top general Dan Caine predicts an easy victory over Iran, which is at a contrast to recent comments by Caine, according to NYT.
• US President Trump is growing frustrated by the limited military options against Iran, with advisers warning that strikes may not be decisive and risk escalating the conflict, according to CBS News.
• US President Trump on Truth said "If we don't make a deal, it will be a very bad day for Iran".

Geopolitics: Other

• China said it is open to nuclear talks in Geneva and urges the US to resume strategic stability dialogue with Russia.
• South Korea and US are reportedly at odds over war games’ scale with the US pushing back on South Korea's request for smaller drills, forcing the postponement of a major joint military briefing, according to SCMP.

US Event Calendar

• 9:00 am: United States Dec FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
• 10:00 am: United States Feb Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -4.5, prior -6
• 10:00 am: United States Feb Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 87.1, prior 84.5
• 10:00 am: United States Dec F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%

Central Bank Speakers

• 8:00 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Economy
• 9:00 am: United States Fed’s Collins Gives Opening Remarks
• 9:00 am: United States Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Discussion
• 9:15 am: United States Fed’s Waller Gives Keynote Address
• 9:30 am: United States Fed’s Cook Speaks on AI
• 9:30 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV
• 3:15 pm: United States Fed’s Barkin & Collins on Panel

Main Rating Changes:

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Luke and Galina in my team have published a timely piece (link here) examining a group of global stocks that have sold off sharply in recent weeks amid rising fears of AI-driven disruption. They look at how valuations have adjusted, analysing PE and PEG ratios, and assess how far current prices now sit from our equity analysts’ targets. The most compelling section, for me, comes at the end, where those analysts explain why they believe these companies are far better positioned to withstand AI disruption than the market currently assumes.

It's good timing for the note as just as US equities had fought their way back to flat yesterday, shaking off weekend tariff uncertainty and an early sell off in futures, the AI disruption narrative resurfaced once again. In the final hour or two of European trading, the S&P 500 rolled over sharply, eventually closing -1.04% down on the day, while 10 year US Treasury yields fell by -5.2bps. The declines included IBM posting its worst day since the 2000 tech bubble burst, while the software component of the S&P 500 (-3.82%) dropped to its lowest level since the Liberation Day turmoil last year, with the VIX peaking at 22.0, not far from its YTD high of 23.1. Elsewhere, Brent crude briefly touched its highest level since July on renewed fears of a potential US strike on Iran, before fading to close marginally lower on the day.

Much of the AI-related sell off was attributed to a Citrini Research memo from the future, "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis", outlining a hypothetical scenario in which AI adoption drives the US unemployment rate into double digits by mid 2028. The note had been forwarded to me around ten times late last week and was ubiquitous across my social media feeds, so it was something of a surprise to see it cited as the catalyst for the sudden mid afternoon sell off in London. As with Matt Schumer’s viral “Something big is happening” piece a few weeks ago — which was also linked to significant equity losses — the argument leans heavily on narrative and emotion rather than hard evidence. That doesn’t mean it will ultimately be wrong, but in both cases the vibes to substance ratio is undeniably high. I’ll stop there, before anyone accuses my own research of the same thing.

The net result was a renewed sell-off in stocks perceived to be at risk from AI disruption. Software stocks were again affected, with that component of the S&P 500 falling -3.82% (and now -31.8% down from its October peak), including sharp declines for Workday (-6.24%), Adobe (-4.61%) and Oracle (-4.57%). But various other companies were also hit, with IBM (-13.15%) the worst performer in the S&P 500 after Anthropic said Claude Code could modernise COBOL, a legacy programming language run mostly on IBM machines. Meanwhile, several of the names namechecked in the Citrini report, including Capital One (-8.84%), American Express (-7.20%) and Doordash (-6.60%) saw outsized declines, while KKR (-8.89%) led the losses among PE firms as private credit fears again rose. More broadly, the Mag-7 (-1.51%) saw a modest underperformance, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-1.12%) also saw a sizeable decline as the broad array of losers outweighed the gains for defensive sectors like consumer staples (+1.46%), healthcare (+1.15%) and utilities (+0.72%). And credit also came under pressure, with US IG spreads +2bps wider and HY +10bps wider.

When it comes to tariffs, the weekend news injected another dose of uncertainty for markets, with big questions surrounding the trade deals the US agreed last year. Notably, the EU have paused the process of ratifying the US trade deal, and the chair of the EU Parliament’s trade committee, Bernd Lange, said yesterday that “We want to have clarity from the US that they are respecting the deal because that’s a crucial element.” The EU concern is that a stacking nature of the 15% Section 122 tariffs would bring total tariff rates for some products above the 15% maximum agreed by the EU and the US. The UK are another with an unclear situation, as they reached a 10% tariff deal last year, but could now face the 15% global tariff rate that would be higher than the deal already agreed to. Indeed, the UK government haven’t ruled out retaliation, with a spokesperson for PM Starmer saying that “Nothing is off the table at this stage”.

Back on the US side, it was also unclear how Trump would respond to these developments. But he did post yesterday that countries which “play games” would “be met with a much higher Tariff, and worse, than that which they just recently agreed to.”

In the meantime, the new Section 122 tariffs have just come into force at midnight Eastern Time. At the moment the rate is 10% with White House officials stating that they are working on a formal order to raise to 15%. Perhaps the stacking concern is delaying things for now. Late yesterday, we also saw the WSJ and Bloomberg report that the administration was preparing new Section 232 national security

investigations into several industries including batteries, telecom equipment and industrial chemicals. Remember that Trump’s delivering the State of the Union address tonight, so it’s possible we might get a better sense of the next steps on tariffs. As I mentioned in my CoTD yesterday (link here), net-net we still think the effective tariff rate will fall this year and that the world post-SCOTUS will see lower tariffs than the pre-SCOTUS world. For more on the latest state of the world of US tariffs, see Matt Luzzetti's latest trade chart book here. 

Elsewhere, geopolitics remained in the spotlight, as speculation continued to mount about a potential US strike on Iran. There wasn’t much fresh news yesterday, although it was reported by multiple outlets yesterday, including Bloomberg, that the State Department had ordered the evacuation of some people from their Beirut embassy. The US-Iran talks are reportedly still ongoing, and Bloomberg also said that the US’ Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would be in Geneva this week for more discussions on Thursday. Escalation concerns saw Brent crude rise to as high as $72.50/bbl intra-day, its highest since July, but it was down by -0.38% to $71.49/bbl by the close. It's back up +0.6% in Asia.

The risk-off mood boosted US Treasuries, as investors made a push into safe havens. Indeed, the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.2bps) fell back to 4.03%, its lowest level since November, and the 2yr yield (-3.9bps) fell to 3.44%. The front-end rally came despite somewhat less dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, who said he may favour a pause in rates at the March meeting if the February labour market data showed continued improvement. However, he did add that “if the good labor market news of January is revised away or evaporates in February” then he’d again back a 25bp cut, suggesting that Waller remains among the more dovish FOMC members.

Earlier in Europe, yields also moved lower across the continent, with those on 10yr UK gilts (-3.9bps) and Italian BTPs (-2.4bps) both reaching their lowest level since December 2024, whilst 10yr bund yields (-2.7bps) were down to their lowest since November, at 2.71%. The equity moves were more mixed in Europe, with the STOXX 600 down by a more moderate -0.45%, as the more tariff-sensitive DAX (-1.06%) underperformed but Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.56%) recorded a record high. Separately, this week is also set to see German Chancellor Merz travel to China, and our economists have a note of what to expect (link here).

Looking at other asset classes, the backdrop around the tariffs, AI and Iran boosted traditional safe havens. Gold rose +2.35% to $5,227/oz, the highest since its record levels in late January, while the Japanese yen (+0.26% versus the US dollar) and the Swiss franc (+0.12%) were the best performing G10 currencies. By contrast, Bitcoin (-4.47%) had its worst day in over two weeks. 

Asian equity markets are mostly shrugging off the US weakness with the KOSPI (+1.99%) again at the forefront of gains in the region, surging to a record high, supported by advances in exporters and local chipmakers. Chinese markets are returning from their week plus break with the CSI (+1.11%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.94%) in a positive mood along with the Nikkei (+0.99%) after yesterday's holiday. Conversely, the Hang Seng (-2.12%) is the weakest performer, suffering losses in technology and pharmaceutical shares. S&P 500 (+0.22%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.34%) futures are bouncing back a little with European futures seeing a similar move. US Treasuries are around +1-2bps higher across the curve after the sizeable rally yesterday.

Looking at the day ahead, President Trump will deliver the State of the Union address tonight. Otherwise, US data releases include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for February, the FHFA house price index for December, and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for February. Finally, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook and Barkin, the ECB’s Kocher, and BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Greene and Taylor.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 08:45

Early Tax Refunds Are Showing A 14% Increase, IRS Says

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The average tax refund for American taxpayers has increased on a year-over-year basis, the IRS said in a Feb. 20 update.

The average refund amount increased 14.2 percent in 2026 to $2,476 as of Feb. 13, according to the agency. Last year, the average refund for the same time period was $2,169.

Meanwhile, the average direct deposit refund amount for taxpayers is up 13.1 percent year over year, from $2,252 in 2025 to $2,548 in 2026.

The IRS added that the total number of tax returns that the agency has received and processed is down slightly year over year.

About 32,175,000 tax returns have been filed as of Feb. 13, a 2.6 percent decrease year over year. For the same time period last year, 33,040,000 tax returns were filed, the agency said.

The total number of returns processed by the IRS paints a similar picture. Some 31,795,000 tax returns have been processed as of Feb. 13, a year-over-year decline of 3.1 percent.

“Average refund amounts are strong,” the IRS said in its update, adding that the agency is required by federal law to hold refunds until Feb. 15 for returns that claim the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC).

“It’s important to note this week’s refund numbers do not include millions of EITC and ACTC refunds to these taxpayers. This means the refund numbers expected to be released Feb. 27, for refunds processed through Feb. 20, are expected to be higher.”

Also, since some taxpayers were “still waiting for important tax documents at the end of January, the IRS expects the tax return filing numbers generally will catch up in the following weeks,” the agency said.

The final average refund amount last year was $3,167, IRS figures show.

The data release comes as President Donald Trump and administration officials have been touting their tax plan under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) that was passed in Congress and signed by Trump into law last year.

Late last month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Fox News interview that there would be “substantial refunds for working Americans.” He added that once a change in tax withholding is underway, employees “have bigger take-home pay every two weeks” or “every month.”

Multiple new tax law provisions under the OBBBA took effect this year, according to the IRS. Congressional Democrats have been largely critical of the Trump administration’s economic agenda, especially after the Democratic Party had victories in several states during the November 2025 elections.

Democrats have also targeted the administration for what they said are policies that have increased inflationary pressures due to its tariffs, which were dealt a blow by the Supreme Court this past week.

“Housing costs have been skyrocketing. Rent is too high and eating away at the ability for people to save money to own a home. The average age of a first-time homebuyer just hit a record high of over 40 years old,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a January statement.

Tax filing season officially started on Jan. 26 and is scheduled to end on April 15, 2026. The IRS Free File started on Jan. 9, while the extension deadline is Oct. 15.

The tax revenue agency said it expects that approximately 164 million individual tax returns will be filed in 2026.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 08:25

Jane Street Sued For Crypto Insider Trading That Accelerated Terraform Collapse

For years - literally - we have been pounding the table and pointing out market rigging and manipulation irregularities in the crypto markets which, for reasons of our own, we attributed to one of the world's foremost HFT shops and most profitable "market makers" in the world (if not India), Jane Street. Below is an example from 2023, and here are hundreds of others...

Jane Street is going to frontrun so many bitcoin ETF orders, SBF would have made trillionaire if he had only stayed there. And it would have been all legal...

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 29, 2023

As it turns out someone noticed.

Jane Street was sued for alleged insider trading by the administrator winding up the affairs of Terraform Labs, the firm whose $40 billion collapse in 2022 roiled the crypto markets, contributed to the collapse of FTX and sparked a brutal crypto winter which culminated with the bankruptcy and prison sentence of Sam Bankman Fried.. who just happens to be a former Jane Street employee (along with his polycule partner Caroline Ellison) and the man many claim devised some of the most intricate crypto manipulation schemes operating to this day. 

Jane Street used "non-public information to front-run trading that hastened the collapse of Terraform," Todd Snyder, a bankruptcy court-appointed administrator and co-head of the Piper Sander Restructuring group, claimed in a redacted complaint filed Monday in Manhattan federal court. Illegally using this information allowed Jane Street “to unwind hundreds of millions of dollars in potential exposure at precisely the right time, mere hours before the Terraform ecosystem collapsed.”

For those lucky enough not to remember, Terraform imploded when its stablecoin TerraUSD lost its peg to the US dollar, leading to the collapse of its sister token, Luna. The failure set off a chain reaction across the crypto industry, ultimately sending bitcoin plunging below $20,000. Terraform co-founder, Do Kwon, who was recently sentenced to 15 years in prison, deceived investors about the stability of TerraUSD, which was said to be algorithmically “pegged” to the US dollar. Kwon pleaded guilty to fraud and was sentenced in December to 15 years in prison by a New York judge who called his crime “a fraud of epic generational scale.” 

Terraform filed for bankruptcy in January 2024 and a wind down trust was formally established later that year. 

Snyder was tapped to administer a trust to maximize the recovery for Terraform’s investors and creditors and to close out its operations. As part of his work, Snyder made a stark realization, one which we were aware of all along: "Jane Street abused market relationships to rig the market in its favor during one of the most consequential events in crypto history.”  

“On behalf of injured parties, we will pursue all avenues supported by the facts and the law against those who exploited their position and reaped substantial profits at the expense of Terraform Labs’ creditors,” Snyder said and is now seeking damages from Jane Street, its co-founder Robert Granieri, and employees Bryce Pratt and Michael Huang.

Here are some of the shocking details that the lawsuit revealed:

By late 2018, Jane Street had signed up to trade directly with Terraform but its trading in Terraform’s tokens didn’t take off until February 2022, when Jane Street sent Bryce Pratt, a former intern at Terraform, to establish lines of communication with his former Terraform colleagues. 

Among Pratt’s communications with Terraform was a group chat he set up with his former colleagues, including a software engineer and the head of business development at Terraform. The group named the chat “Bryce’s Secret” and used it as a way to channel Terraform-related information back to Jane Street.

After Pratt started an email chain to introduce Terraform’s head of business development and Jane Street’s “DeFi” leaders, the parties began regularly communicating and discussing a potential Jane Street investment in Terraform, the lawsuit said. But Jane Street turned those communications into a back-channel source for material nonpublic information about Terraform and later used the confidential information it learned to pursue trades to maximize profits for itself.

Specifically, on May 7, 2022, at 5:44 p.m. EST, Terraform withdrew 150 million TerraUSD from the Curve3pool, a liquidity pool where stablecoins could be exchanged one for the other. 

Less than 10 minutes after Terraform’s withdrawal, which hadn’t been publicly announced to the market, a crypto wallet that some analysts have linked to Jane Street withdrew 85 million of TerraUSD from the same liquidity pool, the complaint alleges.

The next day, Kwon said publicly that the 150 million withdrawal was meant to move TerraUSD to a new liquidity pool for stablecoins. However, the exact timing of activities associated with the new liquidity pool, including any withdrawals from the Curve3pool, wasn’t public knowledge.

The trades accelerated the collapse of Terraform by adding selling pressure at a critical moment, while allowing Jane Street to profit (or avoid massive losses).

It didn't end there, however, and after the May 7 trade, Jane Street continued to use confidential information, including what it learned from Jump Trading, to trade TerraUSD to reap more profits, the lawsuit said. 

On May 9, while TerraUSD was depegged but not fully collapsed, Pratt set up a group message with Kwon, Huang and others at Jane Street, expressing the firm’s interest in bidding on either bitcoin or the Luna token. Kwon responded that Bill DiSomma, co-founder of Jump, should have reached out to Jane Street to discuss a fundraise for Terraform.

Snyder's lawsuit against Jane Street is part of a broader effort by the Terraform wind-down administrator to pursue parties allegedly involved in or profiting from the collapse. In December 2025, Snyder filed a separate $4 billion lawsuit against Jump Trading  - another giant HFT "market maker" - accusing it of market manipulation, self-dealing, and helping accelerate the Terra crash through similar alleged misconduct.

A Jane Street spokesperson told Bloomberg the suit “desperate” and “a transparent attempt to extract money." We say that the revelation of market rigging and manipulation that will now emerge, will make everyone's head spin. 

The case is Snyder v. Jane Street Group LLC, 26-cv-1504, US District Court, Southern District of New York

Jane Street Lawsuit by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 08:11

Moscow Police Targeted In Deadly Car Bombing On 4th Anniversary Of Russian Invasion

There's been another killing by explosive device in the heart of Moscow - this time coming on the fourth anniversary of the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The Russian Interior Ministry has confirmed that a culprit detonated powerful bomb beside a police patrol car in central Moscow early Tuesday, near a public transport hub, which killed one officer and wounded two more.

Anadolu/Getty Images

Based on the details, the attack was clearly targeting the police officers, as the attacker approached their car before quickly setting off the bomb.

The patrol car was badly damaged, with windows shattered, littering the scene with debris at Savyolovsky railway station square - which is one of the capital’s main railway hubs.

Subsequently, there was this bit of strange and contradictory reporting:

The ministry initially said the perpetrator had fled. Minutes later, it said the man was found dead at the site after inspecting the scene and reviewing surveillance footage.

Authorities gave no immediate details about the explosive or the attacker’s motive.

This particular incident comes after a string of assassinations of high profile generals and Russian figures, but also mimics similar prior seemingly 'random' attack on Moscow police.

For example in December 2025 two police officers were killed in an explosion in southern Moscow while attempting to detain a suspicious individual near their vehicle, which occurred just days after a Russian general was assassinated in the same area.

The blast underscored a troubling reality for the Kremlin - that the war's shadow has been creeping deeper into the capital through an apparently intelligence-orchestrated dirty war.

Some local reports are saying this fresh Tuesday attack was the result of a suicide bombing. Russian security services are investigating the scene:

IED detonates by a traffic-police patrol car at Savyolovsky station square in Moscow after midnight — Ministry of the Interior

One officer has been killed, another hospitalized with serious injuries

Suspected bomber may have died at the scene, too

Investigation ongoing pic.twitter.com/DquHUAeifh

— RT (@RT_com) February 23, 2026

Earlier this month, a senior Russian military intelligence officer was shot multiple times and seriously wounded in an attack authorities squarely blamed on Ukrainian intelligence.

The victim was a high level Russian intelligence official, Vladimir Alekseyev - the deputy head of Moscow's GRU military intelligence. He had long been sanctioned in the West for his alleged role in cyberattacks and allegations that he was behind the alleged 2018 Novichok nerve agent attack in Britain.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 08:05

AMD Shares Soar After Meta Chip Deal Worth More Than $100 Billion

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices surged the most in five months in premarket trading, after Meta disclosed a multi-year deal to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs to power its next-generation AI data centers.

Meta will begin deploying these AMD chips in the second half of 2026. The first phase will support the deployment of 1 gigawatt.

AMD stated:

This agreement expands on the companies' existing strategic partnership and aligns roadmaps across silicon, systems, and software to deliver AI platforms purpose-built for Meta's workloads. The first deployment will use a custom AMD Instinct GPU based on the MI450 architecture to deliver AI platforms that are optimized for Meta's workloads at gigawatt-scale. Shipments supporting the first gigawatt deployment are scheduled to begin in the second half of 2026.

Part of the deal includes Meta receiving a performance-based warrant for up to 160 million shares of AMD stock, structured to vest based on specific milestones tied to chip shipments. The first tranche vests with the initial 1-gigawatt of shipments, with additional tranches vesting as Meta's purchases scale to 6 gigawatts.

AMD shares in New York jumped as much as 15% in premarket trading. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, the stock was up about 12%. If those gains hold into the cash session, it would mark AMD's largest intraday increase since early October. Meta's stock was marginally higher in premarket, while Nvidia shares traded down nearly 1%.

"Our ambitions are pretty high," said Santosh Janardhan, Meta's head of global infrastructure, who oversees the company's data centers and their technical architecture, as quoted by Bloomberg.

AMD Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said, "What we're looking to do is go big and accelerate," adding, "We were on a very good path with Meta, but this actually takes our relationship to the next level."

Meta is already AMD's second-largest customer, and these chip shipments will only set to increase. AMD reported $34.6 billion in sales last year and revenue this year could jump by at least 34% as the AI data center infrastructure cycle gains momentum.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Meta-AMD deal to buy 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs is worth more than $100 billion, potentially giving Meta ownership of up to 10% of AMD's stock.

In October, AMD signed a deal with OpenAI that had terms similar to those of the Meta deal. We view these deals as "circular financing," something we have previously highlighted.

To note, Meta said last week that it would purchase millions of Nvidia's GPUs as well.

"This is an important step for Meta as we diversify our compute," Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrote in a statement, adding, "I expect AMD to be an important partner for many years to come."

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 07:45

Lamborghini EV Lanzador Bites The Dust As Electrified Supercar Demand Hits "Close To Zero"

Big legacy U.S. and European automakers are frantically dialing back their electric vehicle bets, scaling back once-hyped roadmaps to full electrification as demand for these vehicles implodes.

The latest automaker to reverse course is not a mass-market sedan or SUV maker, but a luxury supercar brand: Lamborghini.

CEO Stephan Winkelmann told the UK's The Sunday Times that he has ended plans to build EVs, saying customers are not seeking quiet supercars and that demand has collapsed.

Winkelmann said that EV development risked becoming "an expensive hobby" for the car company. He stated that the previously announced all-electric concept car, Lanzador, will no longer be part of its future lineup of supercars.

He noted that the "acceptance curve" for EVs in Lamborghini's target market was flattening and "close to zero."

Winkelmann said the Lanzador will be replaced by a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. He added that the Italian carmaker will produce internal combustion engines "for as long as possible."

"EVs, in their current form, struggle to deliver this specific emotional connection," Winkelmann explained, pointing out that customers who buy luxury cars seek the sound of a roaring engine.

The slower path toward full electrification, or in some cases partial electrification, is not just a Lamborghini story or limited to the luxury auto market. There has also been a sharp reversal by mass-market automakers over the last six months or so, as they dial back EV ambitions or entirely scrap their electrification plans:

• Ford: Hit with a $19.5 billion charge, canceled multiple planned EV programs, and redirected spend away from larger EVs toward hybrids and other priorities.

• General Motors: Announced a $6 billion charge to unwind some EV investments, alongside factory and battery-plant adjustments to better match demand.

• Stellantis: Booked 22.2 billion euros in charges tied to scaling down EV ambitions; it has also been bringing back more gasoline-powered options in parts of Europe as EV demand sags.

• Volkswagen Group: Delayed key next-gen EV efforts like Trinity into the early 2030s, and separately took a major hit tied to Porsche slowing parts of its EV rollout.

• Porsche: Has delayed some EV launches and extended combustion and hybrid plans in parts of the lineup.

• Mercedes-Benz: Pushed out prior all-EV timeline assumptions, now targeting up to 50% electrified (EVs + hybrids) by 2030, slower than earlier expectations.

• Volvo Cars: Eliminated its 2030 EV-only target and moved to a more flexible path that includes hybrids.

• Honda: Slashed planned electrification/software investment and shifted emphasis toward hybrids; it also put a major Canada EV supply-chain plan on hold for about two years.

• Aston Martin: Delayed its first BEV (again) and emphasized plug-in hybrids first.

• Bentley: Signaled that hybrids are likely to remain beyond prior all-EV timelines as it adjusts its strategy.

• Ferrari: Targeted 40% internal combustion engine, or ICE, cars, 40% hybrid, and 20% fully EV sales by 2030. EV target is down from a prior goal of 40% of EV sales.

The pivot by Western automakers comes as the West dials back on "climate crisis" policies, which have crushed manufacturing bases from Germany to the U.S. Midwest. Deindustrialization trends have proven to be nation-killing, and green spending has been nothing more than the most significant misallocation of human resources in history (read here).

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/24/2026 - 06:55