2 Chinese Nationals, 2 Americans Charged With Smuggling Nvidia Chips To China

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Two Chinese nationals and two U.S. citizens have been charged with a scheme to illegally export advanced Nvidia chips to China in violation of U.S. export controls, the Department of Justice said on Nov. 20.

In a file photograph, the logo of Nvidia Corporation during the annual Computex computer exhibition in Taipei, Taiwan, on May 30, 2017. Tyrone Siu/Reuters

Li Cham, 38, a California resident, and Chen Jing, 45, who resides in Florida on an F-1 nonimmigrant student visa, are the two Chinese nationals accused of the illegal exporting scheme. The two U.S. citizens are Ho Hong Ning, 34, a Florida resident born in Hong Kong, and Brian Curtis Raymond, 46, who resides in Huntsville, Alabama.

The four men are charged with multiple counts, including conspiracy to violate the Export Control Reform Act, smuggling, and conspiracy to commit money laundering, according to an indictment unsealed on Nov. 19.

Prosecutors allege the four defendants conspired from September 2023 through November of this year to illegally export advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), which have artificial intelligence (AI) applications, through the third countries of Malaysia and Thailand.

The indictment notes that the United States has put export restrictions on cutting-edge GPUs because China is developing supercomputing capabilities for its militarization efforts, including weapon designs and testing, as well as advancing its advanced surveillance tools.

“The indictment unsealed yesterday alleges a deliberate and deceptive effort to transship controlled Nvidia GPUs to China by falsifying paperwork, creating fake contracts, and misleading U.S. authorities,” Assistant Attorney General John A. Eisenberg, from the Justice Department’s National Security Division, said in a statement.

“The National Security Division is committed to disrupting these kinds of black markets of sensitive U.S. technologies and holding accountable those who participate in this illicit trade.”

Prosecutors said the scheme relied on Tampa-based company Janford Realtor, owned by Ho and Li and not involved in real estate, which acted as a front to purchase and export the restricted GPUs to China.

Raymond’s Alabama-based electronics company was also allegedly involved in the scheme, supplying the restricted GPUs to Ho and others for illegal export.

Some 400 Nvidia A100 GPUs were exported in two shipments to China between October 2024 and January this year, prosecutors said.

Two subsequent shipments, involving 10 Hewlett Packard Enterprise supercomputers containing Nvidia H100 GPUs and 50 separate H200 GPUs, were “disrupted by law enforcement and therefore not completed,” prosecutors added.

The defendants were aware that a license was required for the exports, yet none sought or obtained one, according to prosecutors.

The indictment also alleges that the defendants received more than $3.89 million in wire transfers from China to fund their scheme.

According to the indictment, one of these transfers, in March this year, involved $1.15 million, sent from a Hong Kong-based Chinese company to a Bank of America account belonging to Raymond’s Alabama-based electronics company.

Another wire transfer, in November last year, involved $237,248 sent from another Hong Kong-based Chinese company to a Bank of America account belonging to Janford Realtor, according to the indictment.

According to the Justice Department, Ho and Chen appeared in court in the Middle District of Florida and Raymond in the Northern District of Alabama, all on Nov. 19. Li was scheduled to make his court appearance in the Northern District of California on Nov. 20.

Chen’s lawyer declined to comment when contacted by The Epoch Times.

The Epoch Times contacted Ho’s lawyer, but did not receive a response by publication time. The Epoch Times was unable to reach Raymond’s and Li’s lawyers for comment by publication time.

An Nvidia spokesperson told The Epoch Times that the export system is “rigorous and comprehensive.”

“Even small sales of older generation products on the secondary market are subject to strict scrutiny and review,” the spokesperson said. “Trying to cobble together datacenters from smuggled products is a nonstarter, both technically and economically. Datacenters are massive and complex systems, making any smuggling extremely difficult and risky, and we do not provide any support or repairs for restricted products.”

Chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) speaks during an interview with The Epoch Times in Washington on Oct. 21, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

On Nov. 20, Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), the chairman of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, called for urgent passage of a chip-tracking bill.

“China recognizes the superiority of American AI innovation and will do whatever it must to catch up,” he said. “That’s why the bipartisan Chip Security Act is urgently needed.”

The Chip Security Act would require location verification for advanced AI chips, enforce mandatory reporting from chipmakers on the potential diversion of their products, and task the Department of Commerce with studying additional necessary steps.

In August, two Chinese nationals in California were charged with allegedly shipping tens of millions of dollars’ worth of microchips to China. According to the case’s indictment, the microchips included Nvidia H100 GPUs.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 20:55

FAA Reports 400% Surge Of In-Flight Outbursts, DoT Launches Civility Campaign

Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy has launched “The Golden Age of Travel Starts with You” campaign ahead of the upcoming holiday travel season, aimed at triggering conversation nationwide over the return of civility in air travel, the Department of Transportation (DOT) said in a Nov. 19 statement.

Air travel has become more unruly over the years, DOT said. Since 2019, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has seen a 400 percent surge in in-flight outbursts from travelers, ranging from disruptive behaviors to violent actions.

Since 2021, there have been 13,800 unruly passenger incidents, with the 2024 numbers double that of 2019, according to the DOT.

Between 2020 and 2021, unruly passenger reports jumped six times. In 2021, one out of every five flight attendants reported experiencing physical incidents, DOT said.

In “The Golden Age of Travel Starts with You” campaign video, the DOT showed clips of various incidents involving unruly passengers, including physical fights onboard airplanes.

Duffy appears in the video, asking people to bring manners back in air travel.

Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times that the DOT said the campaign addresses the “record surge” in unruly passengers with potential improvements expected to make the travel experience better for people while ensuring the safety of passengers, pilots, flight attendants, and gate workers.

Duffy also asked potential flyers to think about the way they dress, whether they help pregnant women or the elderly, retain control of their children, and communicate with general courtesy.

“There’s no question we’ve lost sight of what makes travel fun—the excitement, the relaxation, the cordial conversations. Americans already feel divided and stressed. We can all do our part to bring back civility, manners, and common sense. When we can unite around shared values, we can feel more connected as a country,” DOT said.

“Along with building an all-new air traffic control system, surging air traffic control hiring, and making travel more family friendly, the Department of Transportation is committed to ushering [in] a Golden Age of Travel for the American people.”

The DOT campaign comes ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday period, which is expected to see 81.8 million individuals travel at least 50 miles from their homes between Nov. 25 and Dec. 1, according to a Nov. 17 statement from the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Out of this, 6 million are expected to travel via domestic flights, up by 2 percent from last year, said the association.

The number of air travelers over the past several years has remained between 5 million and 6 million, except during the 2020 COVID-19 period.

“A roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $700 which is similar to last year,” AAA said.

“It’s cheaper to fly on Thanksgiving Day itself, but the flight home is what drives up the ticket price since Sunday and Monday are the busiest return days. Some travelers shorten or extend their Thanksgiving trips to avoid flying on peak days.”

During the Thanksgiving season, unruly passengers can become more problematic, given the high traffic during this period.

According to FAA data, there have been 1,431 unruly passenger reports this year, as of Nov. 16, which have resulted in 142 investigations, 125 enforcement actions, and $2.1 million in fines.

The highest number of unruly passenger reports in this decade was registered in 2021 amid the pandemic, when the number hit 5,973.

“The rate of unruly passenger incidents steadily dropped by over 80 percent since record highs in early 2021, but recent increases show there remains more work to do,” the FAA said.

In November 2021, the FAA and the FBI issued a joint statement informing people that the FAA would refer unruly passenger cases to the FBI to conduct criminal case reviews.

Meanwhile, the recent end of the federal government shutdown has resulted in the FAA lifting all restrictions on commercial flights at major American airports, said a Nov. 20 statement from travel insurance comparison company Squaremouth.

The lifting of restrictions has “helped ease the worries of those who considered canceling or delaying their travel plans,” it said, adding that “operations are normalizing just in time for the busy holiday travel season.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 20:30

Studies Back Government On Childhood Gender Dysphoria

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Newly released peer reviews of a federal report rejecting medical interventions for children with gender dysphoria called the government analysis “scientifically sound” and “compelling.”

Protesters in front of the Supreme Court as the high court hears a case over banning gender procedures for minors, in Washington on Dec. 4, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The reviews were released on Nov. 19 for a government report titled “Treatment for Pediatric Gender Dysphoria: Review of Evidence and Best Practices,” which was commissioned by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and originally released on May 1.

The HHS report was prompted by a January executive order from President Donald Trump on protecting children from chemical and surgical mutilation. In part, the order states that the federal government will not “fund, sponsor, promote, assist, or support the so-called ’transition' of a child from one sex to another.”

HHS stated in the report that the issue needed to be examined because of an “emphasis on medicalization” in pediatric gender medicine in the United States. The 409-page report emphasized therapy’s benefits instead.

“Psychotherapy is a noninvasive alternative to endocrine and surgical interventions for the treatment of pediatric gender dysphoria,“ it reads. ”Systematic reviews of evidence have found no evidence of adverse effects of psychotherapy in this context.”

In a Nov. 19 statement regarding the updated report, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. called medical interventions such as hormones and surgery “malpractice.”

“The American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics peddled the lie that chemical and surgical sex-rejecting procedures could be good for children,” Kennedy said. “They betrayed their oath to first do no harm, and their so-called ‘gender-affirming care’ has inflicted lasting physical and psychological damage on vulnerable young people.”

National Debate

Leor Sapir, an HHS report author and senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, agreed that the report represents an important milestone in how childhood gender dysphoria should be treated.

“At the highest level, this is the closest the United States has ever got, and probably will ever get, to a scientific debate about this topic,” Sapir told The Epoch Times.

National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya said in the Nov. 19 statement that the report’s evidence documents the “risks the profession has imposed on vulnerable children.”

“This report marks a turning point for American medicine,” he said.

Peer reviews from professors, doctors, and researchers were positive overall. The only review from a professional psychiatric group came from the American Psychiatric Association (APA). Two unsolicited negative articles were included, and HHS responded to them as well.

The APA, as the sole professional association to provide a formal peer review, said the report’s underlying methodology lacked “sufficient transparency and clarity for its findings to be taken at face value.”

It also criticized the report for failing to identify potential harm from withholding medical interventions, citing higher rates of depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts. Likewise, it condemned the report for not immediately disclosing report authors and any potential conflicts of interest.

In its reply to the APA, HHS responded that it was an established practice in scientific reviews to withhold authors’ names until after peer review so that the focus would be on the research.

The agency pointed out that two Belgian methodologists reviewed the report. Trudy Bekkering and Dr. Patrik Vankrunkelsven both work with the Belgian Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. Bekkering and Vankrunkelsven found the report’s methodology “robust” without major issues in its methodology or conclusion.

Sapir called the validation of methodology extremely important because major flaws would damage the report’s credibility.

“That’s the beating heart of this review,” he said.

HHS noted that evidence underpinning the alleged benefits of medical interventions is “very uncertain.”

The agency also invited the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Endocrine Society to participate in the review. They criticized the report but did not offer a peer review.

HHS also addressed accusations that the report was biased, used misleading evidence, violated scientific norms, and relied too heavily on the Cass report.

The Cass report, a 2024 report to the UK’s National Health Service, resulted in a shift away from the gender affirmation model for children to a more conservative approach. The National Health Service significantly curtailed the prescribing of puberty blockers because there was insufficient evidence that puberty blockers benefited patients.

Leaders in pediatric gender medicine have criticized the HHS report in two journal commentaries.

The first commentary, “A Critical Scientific Appraisal of the Health and Human Services Report on Pediatric Gender Dysphoria,” appeared in the Journal of Adolescent Health in September. The second, “Scientific Integrity and Pediatric Gender Healthcare: Disputing the HHS Review,” was published in Sexuality Research and Social Policy in October.

The commentaries state, among other complaints, that the report does not name its authors, has factual errors, and misrepresents scientific evidence.

HHS noted that none of the government report’s contributors was employed by the agency and that its conclusions were reproducible and in line with scholarly norms.

The agency also stated that the Cass report has been accepted by both major political parties in the UK but noted that criticism was expected.

“It is not surprising that gender clinicians and the professional associations that represent them would disparage a review that upended their favored treatment model in the [UK],” HHS stated.

The Trevor Project, a nonprofit that describes itself as a suicide prevention group for the LGBT community, said in a Facebook post that the report “dismisses the validity of transgender health care.”

Positive Peer Reviews

However, most peer reviewers found that the government analysis met professional standards and had no major flaws.

“This is an important and timely work. It is well written, methodologically rigorous, and makes a significant contribution to the discussion on this topic,” Johan C. Bester, professor of family and community medicine and health care ethics at Saint Louis University School of Medicine, wrote in his peer review.

“What the Cass review did in the UK, the [HHS] review does in the United States.”

Several European nations, including the UK, have restricted or banned pharmaceutical and medical interventions for gender dysphoric children, citing concerns over effectiveness and long-term effects. Similarly, 27 U.S. states have enacted laws limiting so-called gender-affirming care for minors, according to KFF, a health policy research and news outlet.

Bester went on to write that the current practice of offering medical intervention to help youths with gender dysphoria “ought not continue.” He stated that much research is still needed on the causes of gender dysphoria, its natural course, and treatments.

Others, such as Dr. Richard Santen, professor emeritus of endocrinology at the University of Virginia School of Medicine, said the overall assessment of the studies in the report “was scientifically sound.”

Karleen Gribble, professor at the School of Nursing and Midwifery at Western Sydney University, applauded the report’s commitment to using scientifically accurate, neutral terminology. She said that rejecting terminology such as “sex assigned at birth” was “well-argued.”

HHS said the goal of the report was to provide accurate and current information on the treatment of children distressed over their biological sex.

“Our duty is to protect our nation’s children—not expose them to unproven and irreversible medical interventions,” Bhattacharya said when the report was published in May.

“We must follow the gold standard of science, not activist agendas.”

Zachary Stieber contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 20:05

DOJ Sues California To End In-State College Tuition For Illegal Immigrants

U.S. Attorney Pamela Bondi has filed a federal court complaint challenging laws in the Golden State that provide in-state tuition rates, scholarships, and subsidized loans to illegal immigrants, she said on Thursday.

Those laws are unconstitutional and discriminate against American citizens who are not afforded the same benefits to attend colleges and universities, she said in a Nov. 20 statement.

“This marks our third lawsuit against California in one week,” she said.

“We will continue bringing litigation against California until the state ceases its flagrant disregard for federal law.”

As Aaron Gifford reports for The Epoch Times, the lawsuit, filed in the Eastern District of California federal court, names California Gov. Gavin Newsom and other agencies that oversee the state’s public university system.

The lawsuit said the “California Dream Act,” which exclusively provides scholarships and subsidized loans, is illegal and unconstitutional.

It cites two executive orders signed by President Donald Trump earlier in 2025 that prohibit illegal immigrants from obtaining taxpayer benefits or preferential treatment.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Newsom’s press office.

Under a 1996 law passed under President Bill Clinton, the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, public universities cannot charge U.S. citizens out-of-state tuition rates if they are providing in-state discounts to illegal immigrants.

The DOJ previously filed similar lawsuits against five states. Texas, Oklahoma, and Kentucky complied with the federal agency’s request and no longer offer discounted tuition to illegal immigrants, while cases are pending against Illinois and Minnesota.

In-state tuition at most of California’s public colleges and universities is less than $10,000 annually, but out-of-state tuition exceeds $30,000, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

About 62 percent of the nation’s foreign-born population lives in states with “tuition-equity” laws, according to an Aug. 6 report from the National Immigration Law Center.

More than 500,000 illegal immigrants are enrolled at U.S. colleges and universities, both public and private.

California leads with 103,000, followed by Texas with 73,000, and Florida with 49,000, according to the Higher Ed Immigration Portal.

The California State University system website notes that its Dream Center offers benefits exclusively for students who are the children of illegal immigrants or are illegal immigrants themselves.

This includes grants, loans, scholarships, legal assistance, and various campus support services.

“We seek support for our Dreamers and DACA recipients—and those across the country—to honor their humanity, to remove inequitable and unfair barriers that stand between them and the fulfillment of their personal and professional dreams,” Mildred García, the state university system chancellor, says in a statement on the website.

“That’s what the CSU stands for—that’s what we do—and at a scale greater than any other university system in the world.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 19:40

CDC Says Vaccines May Cause Autism

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now says that it’s possible vaccines cause autism, in a reversal of its previous stance.

A sign at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Ga., on Aug. 25, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

“The claim ‘vaccines do not cause autism’ is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism,” the CDC said in a Nov. 19 update to its website. “Studies supporting a link have been ignored by health authorities.”

The CDC cited a 2006 paper that analyzed surveys of parents with children who have autism and found many parents believed vaccines caused the disorder, which has symptoms including difficulty communicating.

It also said that the rise in the prevalence of autism in the United States correlates with an increase in the number of vaccines given to young children.

“Though the cause of autism is likely to be multi-factorial, the scientific foundation to rule out one potential contributor entirely has not been established,” the CDC said. “For example, one study found that aluminum adjuvants in vaccines had the highest statistical correlation with the rise in autism prevalence among numerous suspected environmental causes. Correlation does not prove causation, but it does merit further study.”

A small number of studies have found an association between certain vaccines and autism. Others have identified no increased risk in autism following receipt of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine, including two papers that cited the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the CDC’s parent agency, in a 2021 report, which said there is no evidence that the vaccine causes autism.

An earlier report from the agency said evidence was insufficient to rule on an association between vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, and hepatitis B and autism.

“In fact, there are still no studies that support the claim that any of the 20 doses of the seven infant vaccines recommended for American children before the first year of life do not cause autism,” the CDC said in the update to its site.

It said that there are issues with the studies on autism and the measles vaccine, including that they are retrospective rather than prospective.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said at a Nov. 17 event, responding to a college student who said that vaccines do not cause autism, that “the people who told you that have been lying to you.” He said the studies on the matter should, but do not, compare health outcomes in a vaccinated group and an unvaccinated group, and that HHS is conducting those studies.

HHS is currently engaged in an investigation into the causes of autism, which includes evaluating “plausible biologic mechanisms between early childhood vaccinations and autism,” the CDC said on Nov. 19. The evaluation will include aluminum salts, which are used as adjuvants in many childhood vaccines.

The CDC had previously said on the site that “studies have shown that there is no link between receiving vaccines and developing autism spectrum disorder” and that no links have been found between any vaccine ingredients and the disorder.

The updated page maintains the sentence “vaccines do not cause autism” under an agreement between health officials and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), chairman of the Senate Health Committee. A spokesperson for Cassidy, who said during Kennedy’s confirmation hearing that vaccines do not cause autism, did not return a request for comment.

A separate CDC page, last updated in 2024, says that studies show vaccines are not associated with autism.

Children’s Health Defense, a nonprofit that says it wants to end childhood health epidemics by eliminating exposure to toxins and which was previously chaired by Kennedy, welcomed the CDC update.

“Finally, the CDC is beginning to acknowledge the truth about this condition that affects millions, disavowing the bold, long-running lie that ‘vaccines do not cause autism,'” Mary Holland, CEO and president of the group, told The Epoch Times in an email. “No studies have ever proved this irresponsible claim; on the contrary, many studies point to vaccines as the plausible primary cause of autism.”

Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist, wrote on BlueSky that “for the first time in my career, I can’t tell people to trust what the CDC website says.”

Dr. Jake Scott, an infectious disease physician at Stanford University, said on her blog that the updated page “contradicts what we’ve learned from tracking millions of children over decades” and expressed concern that the new language would lead to parents delaying or skipping recommended vaccines for children.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 19:15

Nigerian Gunmen Abduct Over 200 Christian Children, 12 Teachers In Boarding School Attack

Armed men attacked a Catholic boarding school in northcentral Nigeria's Niger state in the early hours on Friday, abducting 215 students and 12 teachers, according to Daniel Atori, a spokesperson to the Niger state chapter of the Christian Association of Nigeria.

The attack on the church in south-western Nigeria is one in a series targeting Christians

"I have just got back to the village this night after I visited the school where I also met with parents of the children to assure them that we are working with the government and Security agencies to see that our children are rescued and brought back safely," Atori said in a statement. 

The attack and abductions took place at St. Mary’s School, a Catholic institution in the Agwara local government’s Papiri community, said Abubakar Usman, the secretary to the Niger state government. He neither disclosed the number of students and staff abducted, nor who might be responsible for the attack. -AP

"We don’t know what is happening now, because we have not heard anything since this morning," said Dauda Chekula, 62, whose four grandchildren were among the abductees. "The children who were able to escape have scattered, some of them ran back to their houses and the only information we are getting is that the attackers are still moving with the remaining children into the bush."

The abduction is the latest in a spate of attacks on Christians in Africa's most populous country, and happened just days after 25 schoolgirls were abducted in a neighboring state. 

While no description has been given for the attackers, the schoolgirls are suspected to have been taken by 'gangs of bandits.'

As Susan Crabtree of RealClearPolitics writes:  

The timing and nature of the attack placed the fate of Nigerian Christians in stark relief. On Monday, in the early hours of the morning, a group of gunmen attacked a girl’s boarding school in northwestern Nigeria, kidnapping 25 girls, many of them Christian. The attack killed the school’s vice principal, Malam Hassan Makaku, who tried to block the door to the girl’s dormitory with his body.

The gunmen’s assault on the school took more than 20 minutes and failed to prompt any intervention from government security forces located at a checkpoint not far from the school.

The attack also took place amid new scrutiny and calls to action by President Trump. The president in late October vowed to stop the slaughter of Nigerian Christians, whom Muslim terrorist groups, including Boko Haram and Faluni militants, the Islamic State of West Africa Province, as well as armed bandits, have targeted and slaughtered by the thousands in recent years.

The abduction of the girls served as a reminder of former first lady Michelle Obama’s failed hashtag campaign to rescue 276 mostly Christian girls kidnapped by Boko Haram from a school in Chibok, Nigeria, in 2014. A decade later, 82 of the girls remain missing, and a United Nations investigation found that only 37% of schools across Nigeria have any warning system to detect threats of violence and armed attacks.

The deadly attack on the school also came the same week U.S. officials planned to highlight the plight of persecuted Christians in Nigeria at the United Nations and in Congress.

Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, singer Nicki Minaj, and religious freedom advocates gathered in New York Tuesday and joined a panel hosted by Fox News anchor Harris Faulkner. Rev. Gabriel Makan, a pastor from northern Nigeria, and Sarah Makin, former senior advisor on religious freedom in President Trump’s first administration, joined the panel to call for renewed diplomatic engagement and stepped-up actions from the Nigerian government.

Waltz, Minaj, and the other witnesses chronicled the loss of girls into what they fear is a life of sex slavery, the burning of churches, and beheadings of pastors. Entire villages, Waltz said, wake to gunfire because “they dare to commit the crime of calling Jesus their Lord, [and] people go to jail under blasphemy laws for simply wearing a cross.”

For years, religious freedom advocates have called on the U.S. government to address the slaughter of Christians in Nigeria. Trump, in his first term, designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern,” but President Biden reversed that decision. In late October, Trump once again redesignated Nigeria as a CPC and vowed to do everything in his power, including have the U.S. military come in “guns blazin’,” to stop the violence.

“Protecting Christians is not about politics – it is a moral duty,” Waltz said Tuesday. “We need voices that pierce the silence we have heard from the international community, that humanize the statistics we keep hearing, and demand accountability.”

“Religious freedom means we can all can sing our faith regardless of who we are, where we live, and what we believe,” Minaj told the panel. “But today, faith is under attack in way too many places. In Nigeria, Christians are being targeted, driven from their homes and killed. Churches have been burned, families have been torn apart, and entire communities live in fear constantly, simply because of how they pray.”

New Jersey GOP Rep. Chris Smith in previous Congresses introduced bipartisan legislation calling for more action to stop what he considers a Christian genocide in Nigeria. On Thursday, Smith will lead a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on Trump’s renewed call for action.

Christians make up nearly half of Nigeria’s population of 200 million, but they are the victims of the vast majority of the attacks. Today, Nigeria is the most dangerous place in the world to be a Christian, according to leading religious freedom advocates.

The World Index of Christian Persecution states that Nigeria is where 89% of Christian killings throughout the world took place over the last several years. According to a report by Open Doors, a watchdog that tracks Christian persecution, attacks against Christians in Nigeria are on the rise, with 7,000 Christians dying in the first eight months of this year, up roughly 2,000 from recent years.

The Biden administration attributed the slaughter of Christians in Nigeria, which make up nearly half the population, not to religious persecution but to a conflict over resources exacerbated by climate change. Open Doors and other advocates ardently disagree about the main motivation, although most groups involved believe the conflict isn’t just religious in nature but also involves conflicts over power and control over land and resources because Christians own most of the farming areas.

Kidnapping, which helps fund Islamist terrorist groups, is big business for abductors in the lawless areas of northern Nigeria. More than 20,000 people have been abducted in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023, according to Open Doors. Roaming bandits target people wo will pay ransoms, and they’ve learned that Christians and religious leaders will respond with higher payments than others.

For these reasons, some groups, including the Vatican, have pushed back on the narrative that the slaughter of Christians is primarily religious persecution. According to Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, the root causes are “social” in nature rather than fully religious. The Trump administration rejects that assessment, arguing it’s a war on Christians by mainly Muslim extremist groups.

Regardless of the cause, the impact is alarming. Nigeria remains the world leader when it comes to the killing of Christians. The question now: What can the Trump administration do about it?

Trump, in his late October Truth Social post, vowed U.S. military action if the Nigerian government fails to take immediate action. Such a development, if it involved sending U.S. troops into Nigeria, would likely not only anger Trump’s isolationist MAGA base but could prove ineffective against roving bands of militants and terrorists in such lawless regions.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who is Muslim, pushed back against Trump’s threat of military action, instead calling for non-military assistance from the U.S. and interested parties “to deepen cooperation and protection of communities of all faiths.”

Tinubu, who was elected in 2023 and faces reelection in 2027, is viewed as a far more honest broker than his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim who shared his heritage with the Faluni ethnic group responsible for most of the attacks on Nigerian Christians. Tinubu’s wife is a Christian, which likely has tempered his approach.

A senior State Department official told RealClearPolitics that Trump is keeping all options on the table but noted that there is a “whole suite of options” the administration is considering, including serious economic sanctions. The official also noted the geographic complexity of the problem because in the northeastern area of the country the bad actors are Boko Haram and ISIS, while in the Middle Belt it’s Fulani militants.

The key to Tinubu’s reelection is managing “this delicate religious balance,” the official added.

“This is an opportunity for the Nigerians to show that they share this principle [of religious freedom], and they’re willing to take action on this for the benefit of our people,” the official said, noting that it requires the Nigerian government to increase its “prioritization of this issue” and “allocate resources appropriately.” 

While Tinubu appears open to Western assistance to crack down on the attacks, the real problem lies with the flow of firearms to different lawless regions and corrupt funds to the local governors of the different states, several of whom are in league with the extremist groups responsible for the violence, according to a source on the ground in Nigeria. Many of those firearms, the source said, are flowing into Nigeria from Arab states, including Saudi Arabia.

Trump this week gave Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a lavish welcome at the White House and even defended him over the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents, which U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded the crown prince approved. The White House’s renewed U.S. -Saudi partnership brings new hope to ending regional tensions with Iran and cementing the Israeli-Hamas peace deal.

But any talks of U.S. weapons sales to Saudi Arabia should also include pledges to lead an effort to stop the sales of firearms to Nigerian terrorists and militants, critics argue.

U.S. officials are planning to host a senior Nigerian delegation in Washington at the end of this week to get a better idea of short- and long-term goals and any sticking points.

“The flow of illicit weapons is just magnifying the problem there, so it’s one of the key factors that we’re going to look at, especially in the Middle Belt piece of this when we’re talking about ISIS and Boko Haram,” the State Department official said. “How these Fulani ethnic militias, which the Nigerians claim are just farmers – how they end up with heavy artillery to conduct these raids is a fundamental question.”

The State Department is in the process of conducting a review of all U.S. aid to Nigeria, including security cooperation and humanitarian and economic assistance.

“Our preferred option for them is to recognize the seriousness of the situation and act accordingly, in good faith with us, so we can all see results, and we don’t need to discuss any of these punitive aspects,” the official said. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 18:50

Biden's Weaponization Of The DOJ Against GOP Lawmakers Was Worse Than We Thought

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

New, disturbing revelations show just how far Joe Biden was willing to go to target his political enemies. In 2022, his Justice Department secretly seized more than two years of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan’s personal phone records. Fox News Digital obtained a subpoena that exposes the depth of Biden’s weaponization of the government against his enemies.

The subpoena shows a federal prosecutor — who later joined Jack Smith’s January 6 team — ordered Verizon to cough up Jordan’s records dating back to Jan. 1, 2020.

“The request appears to be the most expansive yet of the publicly known subpoenas targeting senators and current and former House members during Arctic Frost, the investigation that led to Smith bringing election-related charges against President Donald Trump,” Fox News Digital reports.

Smith did not begin working as special counsel until seven months after the subpoena was issued, meaning the request pre-dated his time at the DOJ.

The subpoena for Jordan's records appears to be one of the first known ones in the Arctic Frost probe and was issued during a time when Jordan was serving as the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee, which conducts oversight of the DOJ. His role at the time is illustrative of Republicans' sharp criticisms of the Arctic Frost subpoenas, as they claim the requests for Congress members' phone records breached the separation of powers, including under the speech or debate clause.

The toll records did not include the contents of Jordan's phone calls or messages but did include details about when calls and messages were sent and received and with whom Jordan was communicating. The subpoena sought records for three other phone numbers, which were redacted. It included a one-year gag order signed by a D.C. magistrate judge.

A source said Verizon handed over Jordan’s records when the DOJ demanded them, adding another layer to the growing concerns about the department’s reach.

Verizon issued a statement saying it is working closely with both the House and Senate Judiciary Committees to gather all relevant information regarding the shady subpoenas.

"As part of our investigation, we uncovered new information regarding Chairman Jordan and shared it with him as soon as possible," Verizon spokesman Rich Young told Fox News Digital in a statement. "We are committed to restoring trust through transparency and will continue to work with Congress and the administration as they examine these issues and consider reforms to expand notification protections."

Jordan is the latest in a growing list of Republicans revealed as having been targeted by the Biden Justice Department as part of Arctic Frost.

The sweep started earlier with Rep. Kevin McCarthy in 2023. At least ten GOP senators also landed on the list, including Sens. Lindsey Graham, Marsha Blackburn, Ted Cruz, and Ron Johnson. The pattern shows a previously unknown and disturbing level of weaponization.

Naturally, Smith insists that his January 6 and 2020 election investigations followed DOJ policies, but no one really buys that. He also insists the subpoenas were “entirely proper” and narrowly crafted.

Right.

Biden’s weaponization of the DOJ against Trump was already a dark stain on American democracy. But this latest revelation proves he couldn’t stop himself from using the full weight of government to crush all political opposition. This blatant abuse of power demands swift congressional action before it is normalized.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 18:25

US Issues NOTAM Flight Alert Of "Heightened Military Activity" Over Venezuela

It has been weeks since Trump's major military build-up off Venezuela began, and the threat of potential escalated military action against Caracas remains imminent. This scenario may have just gotten a big step closer with a fresh NOTAM alert issued by the FAA.

The FAA issued the NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions), or alert notifying pilots of potential serious hazards in certain airspace, for the Maiquetía Flight Information Region. This area covers all of Venezuela and parts of the southern Caribbean sea.

Importantly, the warning cites a "potentially hazardous situation" and "heightened military activity" over Venezuela and waters just off its coast, and is to expire Febuary 19th, 2026.

Already there's a US aircraft carrier group patrolling waters in the Caribbean. Many analysts believe this is a sure sign that some kind of military intervention against Venezuela is coming. 

Trump may order airstrikes and attacks on cartels at land targets in Venezuela, after already sending drone strikes against over twenty alleged drug boats in the last many weeks, killing over 80.

The fresh NOTAM reads:

"The worsening security situation and heightened military activity in or around Venezuela. threats could pose a potential risk to aircraft at all altitudes, including during overflight, the arrival and departure phases of flight, and/or airports and aircraft on the ground."

And more...

Trump had told reporters on Monday that he wouldn’t rule out sending troops into Venezuela amid the US naval build-up. Maduro in response has said that if Trump ordered military strikes on Venezuela, it would be the "biggest mistake of his life."

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has just issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) for the entirety of the Maiquetía Flight Information Region (SVZM), which covers all of Venezuela and a large section of the Southern Caribbean, stating that operators should exercise… pic.twitter.com/dhynbRuZoi

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 21, 2025

As we reported earlier, following the first US strikes on boats in the region, Maduro sent a letter to Trump urging for diplomacy and stating his readiness to talk with Trump’s special envoy, Ric Grennel, who met directly with the Venezuelan leader back in January.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 18:00

Don't Fall In The China Trap

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Is the Chinese economy collapsing? Or is something worse waiting in the wings?

The short answer is that we could be looking at something much worse than a crashing economy. China could be part of a collapse of the global monetary system.

We’ll begin the analysis with the latest official economic releases from China. These releases showed some of the weakest performance by the Chinese economy since the 2020 pandemic collapse.

Things Aren’t Looking Good

Industrial production growth for October declined to 4.9% (year-over-year) from a prior level of 6.5%. This was the weakest reading since August 2024. Some sectors receiving state support such as autos, computers, shipbuilding and telecommunications did better than average, but the broader manufacturing sector slowed materially, and mining output also weakened.

Retail sales in October were also fragile. There was overall growth of 2.9%, but certain sectors crashed, including household appliances (- 14.9%), building materials (- 8.3%), and automobiles (- 6.6%).

Sectors showing strength included jewelry (+37.6%, although this can be partly a proxy for buying gold in the form of jewelry) and cosmetics (+9.6%). This was the smallest increase in retail sales in years and is especially weak considering that October traditionally marks the beginning of a seasonal buying surge.

The most disastrous data came from fixed-asset investment (FAI), which showed a 1.7% year-to-date decline. This is the steepest decline since the pandemic crash year of 2020.

Property investment fell at -14.7% while infrastructure investment (long the pillar of Chinese growth) went negative at -0.1%. Manufacturing investment was positive at +2.7%, but that was only half the rate from earlier this year.

The bottom line is that all three pillars of investment – fixed assets, property and manufacturing – are slowing at the same time. Investment is one of the most powerful drivers of Chinese growth. While developed economies typically attribute about 25% of their GDP to investment, the Chinese component is closer to 45%. If investment is crashing in China, then overall growth is crashing along with it.

Real Estate Is Crashing Too

This recent data comes on top of the multi-year crash in property values. This crash has caused equity on many properties to be wiped out. To the extent that vanished equity represented the life’s savings of many everyday Chinese citizens, the impact on consumption and the reluctance to make new real estate investments is profound.

The real estate crash goes beyond individual owners and has led to the collapse of several of the largest builders and property investment companies in China including the Evergrande Group ($19 billion in losses), Country Garden ($11 billion in losses), Fantasia Holdings (recent $1 billion operating loss), Sunac (filed for bankruptcy in 2023), and several others.

The financial collapses of China Evergrande, Country Garden, and Sunac all come against the background of a broader crash in real estate debt and real estate-backed wealth management products. This chart shows that a major Chinese high-yield real estate index collapsed 82% in recent years and has never recovered.

The real estate collapse arrived at the same time as several failed “reopenings” of the Chinese economy after COVID and several “stimulus” plans after that. A major economic reopening was announced in 2022 after pandemic lockdowns were eased. This was a failure. Then China announced other major stimulus plans – so-called bazookas – including rate cuts, reductions in bank reserve requirements and subsidies to favored industries. These failed in 2024 and again in 2025. As in the United States, lower interest rates are not a sign of stimulus. They are associated with recession and depression.

Negative Growth?

Chinese economic data must be considered in light of Goodhart’s Law. This economic rule says that when a metric becomes the object of policy, it loses value as a metric.

This applies to Chinese GDP. The Chinese GDP growth rate has declined from 10.0% per year in the early 2000s to 5.0% in 2024. The GDP growth rate (year-over-year) for the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%. The Chinese clearly target the GDP growth rate and currently have a target of 5.0% growth. This means that growth is almost certainly lower, and the Chinese are using statistical sleight-of-hand or outright lying to make it appear they are at or near their target.

As noted above, about 45% of Chinese GDP comes from investment. However, much of that investment is wasted on ghost cities, white elephants and lavish projects that can never hope to provide any return on investment. If this wasteful investment were written off (as would be required under GAAP), Chinese growth would be cut from 4.8% to about 2.5%. Taking into account other manipulations and Goodhart’s Law, it’s entirely possible that China’s GDP growth is negative today. That outcome is not widely understood and would come as a shock to the panda-huggers on Wall Street.

Caught in the Middle-Income Trap

At an even higher level, China is stuck firmly in the middle-income trap. Absent pervasive corruption or war, countries can move readily from low income (annual per capita GDP of about $5,000) to middle-income (annual per capita GDP of about $15,000) through a combination of urbanization, infrastructure and cookie-cutter assembly-style manufacturing.

The breakout to high-income status (annual per capita GDP of $25,000 or more) comes only from proprietary technology and high-value-added manufacturing. Only a few countries (Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong) have ever made this leap since World War II. China is good at stealing technology, but they are not good at creating it or applying it in their manufacturing sector. This is another major headwind to Chinese growth.

Other Headwinds to Growth

China has other significant growth hurdles independent of the issues noted above. China is now in the early stages of the greatest demographic collapse in the history of the world, even greater than the Black Death of the 14th century.

China’s current population of about 1.4 billion is expected to decline by half in the next fifty years. That’s a loss of 700 million people. This is due to a combination of the one-child policy (which began in 1980), sex-selective abortions and infanticide (which killed twenty million girls), and the decline in births per woman as the result of education, urbanization and job equality.

The simplest formula for estimating economic growth is (work force x productivity). There has been a global decline in productivity for reasons economists do not completely understand. If China combines this decline in productivity per worker with a decline of several hundred million workers, then its economy will likely decline by half or more. This is not a catastrophe that will suddenly strike in 2080. It’s happening now and will grow worse with time.

Chinese growth will also be hindered by an excessive debt-to-GDP ratio. That ratio is estimated at 300%, more than double the U.S. ratio of 123%. Any ratio > 90% retards growth. It’s impossible to borrow your way out of a debt trap. The only solutions are default, hyperinflation, or reducing the ratio with less government spending.

All three hurt growth or destroy capital in different ways. The only certainty is that growth will be weak for decades, unless there’s a total collapse in asset values and debt in which case the system may be reset after wiping out trillions of dollars in wealth.

Investors: Stay Away from China

On top of this economic catastrophe comes political turmoil. The best information available is that Chinese President Xi Jinping has been subject to a soft military coup in which he is now subordinate to the PLA leadership. Xi’s allies have been mostly purged. What comes next in terms of Chinese leadership is unclear. But uncertainty that will deter foreign capital from investing in China is almost certain.

And China is not alone. The weakness in the Chinese economy today comes in the context of negative growth in Japan and the UK along with barely positive growth in the EU. Unemployment is rising, world trade is shrinking, and commercial bank lenders are tightening lending standards among surprise credit losses.

Don’t believe the Wall Street narratives about how China is winning the AI race and is building a technological juggernaut. It’s not. China is stuck in the middle-income trap and has a unique combination of a crashing economy, trade wars, collapsing demographics, excessive debt, political turmoil, no rule of law and the flight of foreign capital all amid a world of no growth. Investors should keep as far away from China as possible.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 17:40

Stop The Presses – And Start Telling The Truth About Bias

Authored by John Tillman via RealClearPolitics,

Is a culture change coming to the news media?

So it might seem, now that Bari Weiss has been appointed editor-in-chief of CBS News. Another sign is Jeff Bezos’s decision to reorient the Washington Post’s opinion page. The hope is that both outlets will move away from their blatant far-left coverage, not only bringing in some right-leaning voices, but restoring some measure of objective journalism. Other outlets are wondering if they should follow suit.

Spoiler alert: It won’t work.

That’s not the kind of culture change the media needs. Instead of fighting bias, media outlets should admit their bias, and frankly, they should own their bias. That’s the only way to make the media honest – and it’s what Americans actually want.

Make no mistake: The media landscape in this country is broken. A miniscule 8% of Americans have strong trust in the media, according to Gallup. People can’t abandon legacy outlets fast enough. But they’re not fleeing because so many outlets are biased. Everyone knows they are, and for the record, they always have been. Most outlets are strongly biased toward to the left. A few are strongly biased toward the right. What Americans don’t like is that all these bias outlets pretend to be unbiased and objective.

Americans are reacting to the media’s hypocrisy. And notice where they’re heading. It’s not to some up-and-coming or diamond-in-the-rough “objective” news sites – those don’t exist. No, Americans are rushing to outlets that are brutally honest about their political biases.

In a sense, the media landscape is reverting to the mean. The whole concept of “objective journalism” was created in the 1920s and 30s, but before then, newspapers were proud of their biases and very public about it. They were explicitly affiliated with political parties, movements, ideologies, or even individual leaders. Virtually every media outlet advanced a party line – and Americans loved it. For the record, it also strengthened America, by contributing to the vigorous clash of ideas that defines our pluralistic experiment in self-government.

By contrast, supposedly “objective” media is a historical anomaly, and it makes a mockery of our vibrant democracy. It pretends like a small group of well-educated journalists have a corner on the truth – and the wisdom to tell truth from lies. Ultimately, it says that journalists can put aside their biases. But none of this is true. Journalists are human, and humans have opinions. We should test those opinions by clashing them against each other, not give the false impression that some opinions are really objective truth.

Alas, the legacy media is too bought in to the idea of objective journalism, even as journalists report in profoundly biased ways. It’s killing them. So, on Nov. 19, I’m launching a project that will tell Americans exactly how biased reporters are – and I believe it will help the media.

It’s called MediaPedia, and its centerpiece is a bias rating system for American journalists. We developed an artificial intelligence model that ranks how liberal or conservative reporters are, based on their coverage. The AI system looks at eight criteria, from the sources they use to the tone they take, then gives them a score. A score between 0 and -50 means a reporter is liberal. A score between 0 and  +50 is conservative. For the record, my team is resisting our own biases by using an AI model. Unlike other ranking systems, we don’t want biased humans making biased calls.

MediaPedia will start by ranking journalists at five major legacy outlets: the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Associated Press, and Reuters. We have plans to add more outlets, including broadcast media and podcasts. Ultimately, we want to give Americans a window on as many journalists as possible, so they know exactly what angle the media’s coming from.

No doubt, some journalists will view MediaPedia as an attack, but it’s really an attempt to help them. Journalists should be honest about their biases, and it’s the only way to regain Americans’ trust. As counterintuitive as it seems, people are more willing to trust an openly biased reporter than a journalist who covers his bias under a cloak of objectivity.

At the end of the day, trust depends on honesty, and honesty is the real culture change that media needs. It’s not simply a matter of moving outlets in a different direction. What matters far more is admitting that every media outlet already has a direction – because America moves forward when the media is honest.

*  *  * Meanwhile, you can support ZeroHedge here

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 17:00

The Monsters' Ball

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“...the Democrat Party is no longer a political party. It is an insurrectionist crime syndicate that will torch the Constitution to stay in power.”

- Stephen Miller

The old joke goes: A-list actor is having lunch with studio chief. Studio chief says, Didya hear so-and-so (well-known Hollywood agent) dropped dead this morning. His heart. A-list actor says, Gee, I didn’t know he had one.

Kind of brings to mind the late Veep Dick Cheney, who actually did have a heart, but one so grotesquely diseased that he had his first near-fatal infarction at age thirty-seven, followed by surgeries galore, and finally, at age 71, a heart transplant that, quite remarkably, kept him going another thirteen years — long enough to function behind-the-scenes as a senior Deep State cheerleader and strategist through the Trump years. Daughter Liz Cheney, of course, did the political dirty-work, most notably on Nancy Pelosi’s sketchy J-6 Committee, prior to being voted out of office in the 2022 Republican primary for Wyoming’s at-large U.S. House seat with 28.9 percent of the vote to Harriet Hageman’s 66.3 percent.

And so, yesterday, Dick Cheney’s funeral took place at Washington’s National Cathedral, the greatest assemblage of bloodsuckers since the Hammer Film Studio went out of business in 1979.

Joe Biden was there, perky as all get-out for somebody with stage-four prostate cancer, shaking hands with Mike Pence, who pulled him over the finish line in 2021. John Brennan, coupster superbus was there. Ditto John Bolton (awaiting trial). Most cheekily of all, Dr. Fauci, the father of Covid-19 and its little helper, the Covid vaxx, was seated next to MSNBC’s loss-leader, Rachel Maddow, who famously declared in 2021, “The virus stops with every vaccinated person!” (Not.)

Also on hand, former president “W,” Mitch McConnell, Al Gore, Nancy P, Adam Schiff, Chief Justice Roberts, Veep-of-all-Veeps, Kamala Harris, and many more.

Mysteriously absent: both Clintons and both Obamas — though Bill’s office explained that he had “a scheduling conflict.”

Notably uninvited: President Donald Trump and Veep JD Vance, a downright snub, let’s be plain about it.

And with it, perhaps a message: Behold the whole gang that has labored tirelessly for a whole decade to run you out of office and stuff you into a prison cell is here to gossip and plot against you some more! Nyah, nyah. . . .”

The contrast was pretty stark: MAGA against everybody else inside the DC Beltway. Mr. Trump was certainly at the funeral as a sort of spectral presence, since you can be sure that the only thing they were chattering about was how they were finally going to get him. . . somehow! (After years of spectacular failure and astonishing reversal-of-fortune.) You might also sense what desperation lurks behind their elitist bravado. Some of these birds are headed into court themselves, perhaps to prison. The prospect must seem acutely unreal to them.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has become the Scarlet Pimpernel of US political history, brave, intrepid, and resourceful, driven by a chivalric hatred of tyranny and injustice while seeming to be a comedian, mocking his persecutors as he escapes one plot after another. Don’t you wish you’d been a fly-on-the-wall at the funeral, and whatever after-party they were all at? The odor of fear must have been eye-watering.

The whole wicked business appears to be lurching toward crisis now as Mr. Trump works implacably to disassemble the treasonous scaffold they operate off of. At midweek, a claque of Democratic Party Senators and Congresspersons, led by former CIA-employee, Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin, released a social media video appearing to prompt mutiny in America’s armed forces. Their script implied that Mr. Trump was issuing illegal orders, which officers could (and should) refuse to carry out. They offered no examples of such illegal orders.

It’s probably safe to say that they want Americans to think that any order issued by Mr. Trump as Commander-in-chief is ipso facto illegal because. . . because. . . well, because Trump! And it is all of a piece with their former rallying cry “our democracy,” flaunted by the worst gang of ballot fraudsters, free speech squashers, and lawfare lizards ever seen in this land.

Mr. Trump responded a bit intemperately on his Truth Social platform, telling the claque that their seemingly seditious act could be answered with the death penalty. He was in error on that. That is the penalty for treason outright. The law on “seditious conspiracy,” US Code Title 18 § 2384, calls for a fine of not more than $250,000 ((adjusted for inflation under 18 US Code § 3571), and a maximum prison sentence up to twenty years.

Anyway, that stunt was not exactly a win for Party of Chaos, but it does make you wonder what their next move is going to be. A Seven Days in May style military coup, perhaps? More likely this was a lame rearguard action by a party in retreat and disarray. The angels of justice are coming for them and they know it, despite the machinations of their allied judges to gum up every earnest Article II effort attempted since 1/20/25 to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States. Even while the people try to settle into the cradle of Thanksgiving hearth and harvest, the wicked creep around setting their traps.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 16:20

Is AI A Catalyst For Growth... Or For Collapse?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Yes, AI is a catalyst. But for what is not yet knowable.

The current narrative holds that the big problem we need to solve is conjuring up cheap energy to power AI data centers. Fortunately for us, the solutions are at hand: building modular nuclear power plants at scale and tapping North America's vast reserves of cheap natural gas.

Problem solved! With cheap energy to power all the AI data centers, we're on a trajectory of fantastic growth of all the good things in life.

Let's consider the implicit assumptions buried in this narrative.

1. The unspoken assumption here is AI will solve all our problems because it's "smart." But this assumes the problems are intellectual puzzles rather than self-reinforcing, self-destructive structures fueled by corruption and perverse incentives embedded in the system itself.

2. The assumption is that if we replace human workers with apps and robots, that will automatically generate Utopia. But this is based on a series of baseless, pie-in-the-sky assumptions about human nature and the nature of social and economic structures.

3. The assumption is that being "entertained" by staring at screens all day is the foundation of human fulfillment and happiness, and so getting rid of human work will usher in Nirvana. The reality is humans are hard-wired to find fulfillment in purposeful, meaningful work that is valued by others. Staring at "entertainment" on screens all day isn't fulfillment, it's deranging and depressing.

This is human nature in a nutshell: Idle hands are the devil's workshop.

4. Another assumption is that every technological revolution generates more and better jobs by some causal mechanism. But there is no law of nature that technology inevitably creates more jobs than it destroys, or that the resulting jobs are more rewarding. That recent history supports this idea doesn't make it a causal law of nature. By its very nature, AI destroys jobs while generating few replacement jobs.

The handful of top AI programmers are paid (or promised) millions of dollars; the industry doesn't need more than a handful of top designers because AI can generate its own conventional coding.

5. This narrative assumes AI will be immensely profitable and the profit motive will push its limitless expansion. But once again, there are no laws of nature that every new technology is inevitably immensely profitable just because it's a new technology.

If the projected use-value doesn't materialize, the investment in the new tech is mal-invested--a stupendous waste of capital chasing a delusional pipe dream. Some percentage might generate some use-value, but this use-value may be obsoleted long before the massive initial investment pays off.

6. Even if the new technology continues expanding, the speculative bubble can deflate 80%. This is the lesson of the dot-com era: that the Internet continued to expand didn't mean the speculative bubble continued inflating: the speculative bubble is not the same thing as the actual use-value in the real world.

The Internet continued expanding even as the dot-com stock bubble collapsed. In other words, this is the best-case scenario: if the use-value of AI is questionable, then the losses can approach 100%.

Here's how this feels in real-time:

7. Perhaps the greatest assumption being made is that there is some law-of-nature inevitability in AI's eventual supremacy. From the perspective laid out in What We've Lost, AI's influence on systemic problems is zero because AI can't reverse moral decay, and it actually reinforces destructive concentrations of capital and power in oligarchic cartels.

In other words, AI is a force not just of disruption (i.e. creative destruction) but of disorder, for its promoters are not accountable for its consequences, which are already visibly corrosive and potentially disastrous.

8. Every trend and every technology reaches an extreme version of its initial state. This extreme can be transformative--but not necessarily in the way proponents anticipate. AI could also be a catalyst for collapse, as the mal-investment on a vast scale bleeds the system of capital while generating consequences which destabilize a system already on the verge of disorder due to extremes of wealth-income inequality and unaffordability.

Put another way: AI is the ultimate projection of disruptive technology, but there are no guarantees that its consequences won't catalyze systemic collapse.

9. AI boosters assume the public will either embrace or be forced to accept their AI dominance. That there could be pushback against AI supremacy that itself catalyzes disorder leading to collapse doesn't enter their blinkered worldview.

Here is how the public may well view AI oligarchs:

10. Technocrats love to declare victory because their models indicate victory is inevitable. But models aren't reality, as things get left out of models without the model builders being aware of what was left out. Consequences generate second-order effects that aren't included in the projections.

Things always look great when simplified into a chart based on projections and data selected to support the shared delusion.

Yes, AI is a catalyst. But for what is not yet knowable. Never mind, here are AI's boosters presenting their version of the "Five O'Clock Follies."

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition) through November. Introduction (free). Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 15:45

Treasury To Block Tax Credits For Illegal Immigrants Under New Trump Administration Rule

The Treasury Department plans to issue regulations barring illegal immigrants and certain foreign nationals from receiving a range of refundable tax credits, a move the Trump administration says is necessary to ensure federal benefits are limited to those eligible under longstanding law.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that the department will implement new rules defining who may claim income tax credits covered by the 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act, or PRWORA. The law restricts access to federal public benefits for individuals who are not U.S. citizens or qualifying residents.

“Under President Trump’s leadership, we are enforcing the law and preventing illegal aliens from claiming tax benefits intended for American citizens,” Bessent told Breitbart. 

The regulation will specify that the refundable portions of the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Additional Child Tax Credit, the American Opportunity Tax Credit and the Saver’s Match Credit constitute federal public benefits. As a result, the Treasury Department said, illegal immigrants and other foreign nationals will not be eligible to receive them.

“Treasury’s Office of Tax Policy and the Internal Revenue Service have worked tirelessly to advance this initiative and ensure its successful implementation,” Bessent said. “Their diligence and professionalism reflect this administration’s determination to uphold the integrity of our tax system. We will continue to ensure that taxpayer resources are directed only to those who are entitled under the law.”

The rule follows a recent opinion from the Office of Legal Counsel at the Justice Department, interpreting these income tax credits as federal public benefits that fall under PRWORA’s eligibility restrictions.

Research has indicated that illegal immigrants receive substantial refundable tax credits each year. A 2021 report from the Center for Immigration Studies estimated that illegal immigrants with Social Security numbers receive roughly $2.9 billion in cash payments annually, including $2 billion from the Earned Income Tax Credit and $890 million from the Additional Child Tax Credit. The report also estimated that illegal immigrants filing with Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers receive between $870 million and $1.6 billion in Additional Child Tax Credit payments.

The Treasury Department said the new regulations will apply beginning with the 2026 tax year. (h/t Capital.news)

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 15:25

The Labubu Omen

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

Remember Beanie Babies? In the late 1990s, they were all the rage.

Tiny stuffed animals which cost less than $1 to manufacture were selling for thousands of dollars at peak.

The Princess Diana memorial bear once fetched $500+, and today it sells for around $5. Peanut the Royal Blue Elephant hit $5,000 in 1999, and today a certified mint condition specimen might fetch $50.

The BB craze started in 1997, just as the dotcom bull market was starting to go vertical. At one point, fully 10% of all eBay listings were Beanie Babies.

The timing was no coincidence. Speculation is contagious. Once a society catches the bug, it causes all sorts of strange effects.

The Beanie Baby Bubble (BBB) fell apart in mid-1999. Shortly before the dotcom bubble peaked in March of 2000.

Labubus Gone Wild

Over the past year, a new plush toy craze has gone viral. Labubus. They’re small, demonic-looking creatures sold by a Chinese company called Pop Mart:

Source: Pop Mart

The unique thing about these toys is that you initially had to buy “blind boxes”, where you don’t know which doll you’re getting. It could be an ultra rare valuable one, or a common one. The gambling aspect made it incredibly viral. For months they constantly sold out the moment more came in stock.

One notable Labubu sold for $10,585 earlier this year. It was a limited-edition Vans Old Skool Vinyl Plush Doll:

Over the summer, Forbes ran a piece on that sale, even saying that Labubus might be “good investments”.

In June, a unique 4 foot tall Labubu sold for a whopping $170,000 in China.

But since then, interest has dried up. Less than 3 months later, the same Forbes editor updated her Labubu outlook.

Is The Labubu Craze Ending? Prices Are Down And Inventory Is Up As Eyes Turn To A New Toy

On eBay, where sellers have made upwards of $10,000 on special edition Labubus, few dolls are listed for more than $2,000 and none of 60 most expensive listings have garnered bids.

At the height of the Labubu craze earlier this year, the toys sold out in a matter of seconds each time they re-stocked on the Pop Mart website and resellers were making hundreds to thousands of dollars on each wacky, toothy doll.

The high prices and low inventory drove a rise in counterfeit Labubu and stores with the dolls in stock were being overrun by customers brawling and yelling at each other to secure their toy.

I checked eBay today, and none of the most expensive Labubus have any bids to speak of. Sellers are still trying to sell the most rare ones at their peak prices, and nobody’s biting.

It looks like Labubu demand has hit a wall.

Anecdotally, my middle schooler reports that Labubus are no longer as cool as they once were.

Is Speculative Mania Peaking?

The Labubu craze is indicative of the state of markets. Just as Beanie Babies were a product of the dotcom bubble. Signs of the times.

I hate to keep hammering this point home, but it’s abundantly clear we’re in the midst of a bubble. One that could be close to peaking.

The crypto market is giving up much of its gains. Momentum stocks have hit a wall, at least for now. And even big tech is experiencing its first turbulence since the April selloff.

When this thing falls apart, the Fed will undoubtedly step in with much lower rates and unprecedented QE. But based on the size of this bubble, even with tremendous money printing, it could take a decade or more for hot stocks to recover.

I don’t claim to know exactly when the bubble will pop. It could be tomorrow, or a year from now.

Regardless, I’m steering clear of hot tech names (besides retirement target date fund exposure), and sticking with my great rotation theory. We’re doing very well in cheap emerging markets, natural resources, and gold/silver/miners. So I don’t see a need to speculate on overpriced momentum stocks at this time.

I sleep much better not having to worry about the spectre of dotcom-style 70% drawdowns.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 15:05

House Lawmakers Press Shein Over Sale Of Childlike Sex Dolls In The US

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,

House lawmakers have asked fast-fashion retailer Shein to explain how childlike sex dolls were allowed to appear on its e-commerce platform and whether any were sold to U.S. customers, escalating an international controversy that earlier this month led France to suspend the company’s online marketplace.

In a Nov. 20 letter to Shein CEO Xu Yangtian, Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), joined by 32 other members of Congress, sought clarity on the retailer’s internal controls and whether U.S. consumers were exposed to illegal content.

Founded in China and now headquartered in Singapore, Shein is known for its low-cost, rapid-turnover fashion and for hosting thousands of independent vendors on its marketplace.

The lawmakers said the request follows reports earlier this month that access to Shein’s French site was temporarily blocked after authorities found dolls resembling children offered for sale by third-party vendors.

Buchanan, who is leading the bipartisan inquiry, said in a statement, “It is incredibly disappointing that a major global retailer allowed childlike sex dolls to be sold on its platform, products that are known to fuel pedophilia and endanger children.”

He added that companies that fail to stop such items “must be held fully accountable and prevented from ever enabling this kind of behavior again.”

Wasserman Schultz said the sexual exploitation of children cannot be stopped while such products continue to be made and sold, stressing that e-commerce companies must not allow their platforms to be used to distribute items that encourage abuse.

Letter Flags Breaches

In their letter, lawmakers said French authorities discovered on Oct. 31 that Shein’s website was selling sex dolls with a childlike appearance.

One listing described a product as a “sex doll … male [expletive] toy with erotic body …” and showed an image of a doll resembling a young girl holding a teddy bear.

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) arrives for a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 13, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The lawmakers said a Shein representative confirmed that third-party vendors began selling childlike sex dolls on the platform on Oct. 16.

They noted this directly contradicts Shein’s policies, which ban illegal or restricted goods, including items that promote child abuse and exploitation.

They added that the listings raise concerns that similar items may have been available in the United States, including in states such as Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah, and Hawaii, where the sale of such dolls is explicitly banned.

The letter cites research warning that childlike sex dolls can have a “reinforcing effect” on pedophilic ideation.

Although the lawmakers acknowledged Shein’s later decision to ban all sex dolls and suspend its adult-product category, they said it was unacceptable that the dolls were ever allowed to be listed.

They asked the company to clarify by Dec. 20 whether the dolls were sold to U.S. customers, whether law enforcement was notified, how the company plans to recall any completed sales, and what measures it will adopt to prevent future violations.

The letter also urges Shein to commit to a permanent, global ban on childlike sex dolls, even in countries where such sales are not explicitly illegal.

The Epoch Times contacted Shein for comment but did not receive a reply by publication time.

Suspension in France

France said on Nov. 5 that it was suspending access to Shein’s online platform unless the retailer proves its content complies with French law.

The government’s announcement coincided with the opening of Shein’s first physical retail location, a pop-up inside Paris’s Bazar de l'Hotel de Ville (BHV) department store.

Under French law, regulators can require online platforms to remove clearly illegal content such as child pornography within 24 hours, and failure to comply can result in orders for internet providers and search engines to block or delist the site.

Arnaud Gallais (C), president of Mouv'Enfants, a movement fighting against all forms of violence against children, gestures next to Suzanne Frugier (R), general secretary of Mouv'Enfants, holding a placard which reads as "Protect children. Not Shein," at the Bazar de l'Hotel de Ville (BHV) department store in Paris on Nov. 5, 2025. Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images

A day later, on Nov. 6, France’s finance and digital ministers asked the European Commission to launch an urgent investigation, calling the listings “serious breaches” of European regulations.

Shein told The Epoch Times on Nov. 6 that it had taken note of the government’s decision and was cooperating with authorities.

“We are committed to working with the French authorities to address any concerns swiftly as we have always done,” the company said.

It added that it had temporarily suspended listings from independent third-party vendors on its French marketplace while it reviews and strengthens oversight of their activity.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 14:25

Amb. Huckabee Under Fire For 'Warm' Meeting With Notorious Traitor & Spy Jonathan Pollard 

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee is under fire and in the headlines after it was revealed he met with notorious traitor and spy Jonathan Pollard at the US Embassy in July. The former American intelligence analyst was convicted of espionage for Israel and sentenced to life in prison in 1987.

Pollard's is widely viewed as one of the single most damaging spy cases in US intelligence history, as he passed along extensive classified information, including the NSA's ten-volume guide to US signals-intelligence collection methods. He also directly put American intelligence agents and officials in danger, as he revealed the identities of thousands of individuals who had assisted US intelligence services.

The CIA still considers Pollard a dangerous traitor to the nation. He had passed thousands of secret documents - enough to fill a large room-full, to Israeli intelligence in exchange for money and gifts. His defense after getting caught red-handed, which included video footage showing him stealing documents, was that the US government was withholding crucial information from its close Mideast ally.

Pollard had actually been arrested while trying gain asylum at the Israeli Embassy in Washington. Later, in prison, he was granted Israeli citizenship, also amid an Israeli lobbying campaign to see him go free.

He was released from prison in 2015 during the Obama years, in his mid-60s and after serving 30 years of his sentence. After a strictly monitored five-year period of parole, he fully gained his freedom and immediately moved to Israel in 2020, where he received a "hero's welcome" from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The New York Times reports this week:

The highly unusual meeting caught some U.S. officials by surprise, and appeared to be a sharp break with years of precedent for American diplomats.

The New York Times learned of the meeting from three U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. When The Times asked Mr. Pollard about the meeting, he confirmed it.

Mr. Pollard said it was the first time that a U.S. official had hosted him at an American government office since his release a decade ago.

The same report indicated this alarmed and angered the CIA, but which hasn't issued official public comment on the matter. "The meeting with Mr. Pollard, a former naval intelligence analyst, was kept off Mr. Huckabee’s official schedule, two of the U.S. officials said. The fact that it occurred alarmed the Central Intelligence Agency’s station chief in Israel, three of the officials said," The Times continued.

Netanyahu demanded Bill Clinton release convicted Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard after telling Clinton Israel knew of the tapes between him and Lewinsky, according to multiple reports. Clinton did not do it after George Tenet threatened to resign as CIA chief if he did so.

Obama… https://t.co/9lWf6JgHno

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) November 20, 2025

However, the White House defended the ambassador, saying simply "The White House was not aware of that meeting" and that "The president stands by Ambassador Huckabee and the work he is doing for both the United States and Israel."

Pollard has openly described the Huckabee discussion as warm and said he used the opportunity to thank Huckabee for helping advocate for his release from prison, and for looking after his family while he was serving time in federal custody.

In the ‘80s, there was a lot of Zionist influence in the USG, but the security services were genuinely pissed after the Pollard scandal. Tenet threatened to resign as DCI if Clinton bowed to Netanyahu’s blackmail and freed him. Today Israel just does whatever it wants, no brakes. https://t.co/fOUSWqaiVl

— Martyr Made (@martyrmade) November 20, 2025

Huckabee has previously come under criticism from the MAGA movement for being 'Israel first' and not in truth America first. He has long maintained of Washington relations with Israel that "It’s a relationship unlike any other."

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 14:05

CapEx Spending On AI Is Masking Economic Weakness

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The U.S. economy’s recent growth has a distinctive engine: large‑scale capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). Firms such as Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms, and Amazon have announced massive investments in data centers, servers, networking equipment, and AI infrastructure.

As noted by Investing.com:

“Artificial intelligence is consuming capital faster than investors can recalibrate. Bank of America now sees global hyperscale spending rising 67% in 2025 and another 31% in 2026, with total outlays climbing to $611 billion. That is a $145 billion increase in just one month’s estimates.

The surge shows how cloud giants are doubling down. Google raised its 2025 capital budget to $92 billion, Microsoft plans even faster growth into fiscal 2026, and Meta now expects spending of about $100 billion in 2026. Amazon’s data center capacity is on track to double by 2027. None show intent to slow down, even as capex intensity approaches 30% of sales, roughly triple historic norms.

That level of investment is extraordinary. At its peak, the 5G telecom buildout consumed about 70% of operating cash flow, AI infrastructure is now approaching the same strain.

While we can certainly discuss the magnitude of those investments and the risks associated with repeating another “Dot.com” overbuild, the point I want to address with you today is how those capital expenditures are masking broader economic weakness.

For example, a recent estimate places U.S. AI‑related capex for fiscal 2025 at about 1.2% of GDP. (The chart below uses the Atlanta Fed GDP Now estimate for Q3 of 4% nominal GDP growth and assumes the same in Q4.) If we subtract out the AI-related Capex spending, growth is significantly weaker than advertised.

In raw terms, the global AI investment by key players already exceeds hundreds of billions of dollars. Analysts forecast global AI spend at around US $360 billion in 2025 with growth into 2026 and beyond. For instance, data center capex is projected to grow at a 21% CAGR to reach US$1.2 trillion globally by 2029. Such figures highlight real spending momentum, and that momentum has helped the U.S. economy avoid a steeper decline in growth. But this growth is highly concentrated. Only a handful of large tech firms comprise the bulk of the capex. Therefore, the headline numbers require deeper interpretation. Investors must recognize that, while the impact on economic growth is real, spending will eventually slow down.

Still, the rise of AI-driven investment is significant for the economy and for investors alike. It signals a shift in the composition of growth from consumption and broad business investment toward heavy‑asset, tech‑centric investment. Recognizing how that shift works is critical for understanding risks and opportunities.

What the Boom Masks – Underlying Weakness in the Economy

Although the surge in AI investment is impressive, it masks several structural weaknesses in the broader U.S. economy. First, the AI‑capex boom is concentrated among a small number of firms and sectors rather than being broadly diffused across all industries or geographies. The bulk of spending is going into servers, data‑centers, and networks. While those assets are capital‑intensive, they are not labor‑intensive in the way large manufacturing or services growth might be. As noted above, while analysts estimate that AI-capex may be 1.2% of GDP in 2025 under a standard multiplier, the real economic benefits in productivity or employment outside of the tech sector remain limited so far. We observe that in the dispersion of expected 2026 earnings growth between the largest market-capitalization-weighted stocks in the S&P 500 index and the rest.

In other words, if AI capex spending reached a broad swath of the economy, the earnings expectations for the bottom 493 companies would not be negative. It is also crucial to note that forward earnings estimates are ALWAYS overly optimistic, so the results are likely to be worse in the future.

Second, much of that investment relies on imported equipment, components, and technologies, which means the domestic multiplier of the spending is weaker than the headline number suggests. Although AI-capex is large, much of it is still classified as intermediate goods, which aren’t fully captured in GDP statistics. However, while AI capex spending is robust, spending by the rest of the economy remains muted.

Third, when you look beyond the tech sector, the traditional engine blocks of growth are weaker. Residential investment is under pressure as housing affordability remains an issue. As noted above, since business investment outside the large tech players remains muted, that is weighing on employment growth, which continues to show signs of softening.

Fourth, while AI capital expenditures (capex) are high, the economic payoff has not yet been fully proven. Productivity gains, revenue gains, and sustainable earnings from this wave of infrastructure spend have not been fully realized. One Vanguard analysis notes that to move U.S. growth above trend via AI alone would require approximately US$1 trillion in AI-related spending, which lies ahead, not behind.

Thus, the underlying condition of the economy is more fragile than the capital‑spend numbers imply. The risk is that when the tech‑capex boom slows or fails to deliver a broad spill‑over, the rest of the economy will feel the weakness more sharply.

Therefore, as an investor, the risk of assuming broad-based resilience may be critical to consider when developing your investment thesis.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the mixed nature of this growth wave presents both opportunity and risk. The current opportunity for investors is to invest directly in firms closely tied to AI infrastructure, such as chip manufacturers, data center operators, and cloud services companies, all of which are likely to benefit. Their growth trajectories may outpace the broader economy because they are at the heart of the capital expenditure surge. But these opportunities come with important caveats.

One risk is concentration. If a narrow subset of companies or sectors is driving the growth story, then portfolios that lack diversification towards non‑tech may expose investors to sharper corrections. If the tech-capex wave slows, valuations tied to presumed growth may reverse quickly, especially among firms with aggressive capital expenditures and uncertain near-term returns. For example, analysts at Goldman Sachs warn that the current contributions of AI to GDP are likely understated; however, the actual economic benefit remains modest, and future risks remain high.

Secondly, as we saw during the dot-com bubble, not all companies that jumped into the internet market survived. Those failures also included some of the largest companies at the time, such as Enron, World.com, and Lucent, among others. The current AI cycle will likely be the same; there will be some big long-term winners, but there will also be quite a few companies that are mainly trading on “hope” for future results that are far from guaranteed.

Another investor implication concerns earnings quality. Heavy capital expenditures do not guarantee near-term earnings improvement or productivity gains. Some firms may carry high depreciation, amortization, and idle capacity risk. A report notes that capital spending growth now may generate returns only years down the road. This remains one of our primary concerns, as expectations for future earnings growth are incredibly elevated. This leaves an enormous amount of room for disappointment when combined with already high valuation multiples, making the downside risk not inconsequential.

(The chart shows the current deviation of earnings growth from its long-term exponential growth trend versus the trailing P/E ratio, which is inverted. When the “E” reverses, valuations will skyrocket as they did during the Dot.com bust, the Financial crisis, and the Pandemic shutdown.)

Third, investors should monitor the masking effect. The fact that AI‑capex is propping up headline growth means the rest of the economy remains vulnerable. As shown, the economically weighted ISM index (70% services/30% manufacturing) remains in expansion territory, but just barely. If consumption or non‑tech business investment falters, the broader weakness may surface suddenly. Portfolios built only around tech optimism may lack cushions from areas less tied to the boom.

Fourth, valuations need discipline. As noted above, investors are currently pricing in the most optimistic of future outcomes. That exponentially increases the risk of disappointment at some point in the future. The correction potential rises if growth disappoints, returns are delayed, or macro weakness intensifies. Investors should consider whether the current growth base is sufficiently broad to support the expected outcomes. Are earnings projections realistic? How much is the stock’s valuation already assuming perfect execution?

In short, you must not assume that because one part of the economy is booming, everything else is strong. Please recognize that the growth narrative is narrow; therefore, as investors, we should consider some practical steps to manage future risks.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 13:45

Bombshell Report: "Largest Funder Of Al-Shabaab Is Minnesota Taxpayer" 

Investigative journalists Ryan Thorpe and Christopher F. Rufo have published a bombshell report in City Journal detailing how massive welfare fraud in Democrat-run Minnesota, much of it carried out through networks in the state's Somali community, funneled stolen taxpayer money back to Somalia, where some of those funds ultimately ended up in the hands of the terror group Al-Shabaab. 

An unprecedented wave of welfare fraud has surged under an unhinged leftist Governor Tim Walz, with billions in taxpayer funds stolen through Medicaid programs, childcare-meal reimbursements, and autism-services schemes by Minnesota's Somali community. 

Multiple law enforcement officials explained to Thorpe and Rufo that portions of those remittances ended up supporting the al-Qaida-linked terror group Al-Shabaab.

"This is a third-rail conversation, but the largest funder of Al-Shabaab is the Minnesota taxpayer," a source told the journalists, adding, "There is an issue here that is real, and if there is ever an event that is traceable back to these funds, or to people from this area, then this situation will take on a whole new set of optics."

In recent months, the Minnesota US Attorney's Office has uncovered multi-million dollar fraud involving the state's federally funded autism services program for children and the Medicaid Housing Stabilization Services program.

BREAKING - It has been revealed that Somalians in Minnesota have been using fraudulent autism Medicare claims to fund the Somali terror group Al-Shabaab, with claims rising from $3 million in 2018 to $399 million in 2023, effectively making Minnesota taxpayers the group’s largest… pic.twitter.com/SXOqi7VJ1m

— Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) November 20, 2025

Here's more color 

Much like with the HSS program, autism claims to Medicaid in Minnesota have skyrocketed in recent years—from $3 million in 2018 to $54 million in 2019, $77 million in 2020, $183 million 2021, $279 million in 2022, and $399 million in 2023. Meantime, the number of autism providers in the state spiked from 41 to 328 over the same period, with many in the Somali community establishing their own autism treatment centers, citing the need for "culturally appropriate programming." By the time the fraud scheme was exposed, one in 16 Somali four-year-olds in the state had reportedly been diagnosed with autism—a rate more than triple the state average. "

"This is not an isolated scheme," Joe Thompson, the US attorney, said in a press release. "From Feeding Our Future to Housing Stabilization Services and now Autism Services, these massive fraud schemes form a web that has stolen billions of dollars in taxpayer money. Each case we bring exposes another strand of this network."

What Thompson arguably hinted at, but left unsaid, should be obvious: this "network" of "fraud schemes," which "form a web" that has stolen "billions of dollars in taxpayer money," involved many members of Minnesota's Somali community. The Feeding Our Future, HSS, and autism-services cases are far from the only examples. 

At least 28 fraud scandals have emerged since Walz became governor in 2019. According to two former FBI officials who spoke with the journalists, most of the large-scale fraudsters involve Minnesota's Somali community.

We suspect the subject of Medicare fraud will haunt Walz and his radical leftist regime in the state during the midterm election cycle. Democrats have allowed tens of thousands of Somalians to pour into the state since Walz took office.

What we're staring at - that "the largest funder of Al-Shabaab is the Minnesota taxpayer" - is the direct result of the Democratic Party's suicidal empathy. That globalist mindset has produced nation-killing policies that now pose flashing-red national security threats.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 13:25

Half Of US Homes Lost Value Over Past Year: Zillow

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. homes are declining in value, but homeowners, on average, are not selling at a loss since there was a significant uptick in property value over the past few years, according to the latest analysis by online real estate marketplace Zillow published on Nov. 17.

A property for sale in Arlington, Va., on Aug. 22, 2023. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

“As of October 2025, 53 percent of homes have lost value over the past year as measured by their Zestimate,” said the company. “This share has climbed from only 16 percent just a year ago. This is on the highest share of homes declining in value since April 2012, when the housing crash was starting to bottom out.”

Zillow’s Zestimate is an automated estimate of a home’s market value based on data points including public records, user data, location, and other information.

Most of the value loss has been concentrated in the West and Southern regions. “Most major metros in these regions have seen half or more of their homes lose value,” said a company research report.

As for metros, Denver saw the biggest fall in home value, followed by Austin, Sacramento, Phoenix, and Dallas. By comparison, only three of the 36 major metros in the Northeast and Midwest have had majority declines over the past year, Zillow said, adding that “declines are spreading to more homes in all metros.”

Despite the fall in values, homeowners shouldn’t be disheartened, according to Treh Manhertz, senior economic researcher at Zillow.

“Homeowners may feel rattled when they see their Zestimate drop, and it’s more common in today’s cooler market environment than in recent years. But relatively few are selling at a loss,” Manhertz said.

“Home values surged over the past six years, and the vast majority of homeowners still have significant equity. What we’re seeing now is a normalization, not a crash.”

Based on a Nov. 19 report from real estate brokerage Redfin, the housing market is favoring buyers—”the strongest buyer’s market in records dating back over a decade,” said the company.

More Sellers Than Buyers

When there are over 10 percent more home sellers than buyers, Redfin defines it as a buyer’s market, and says this is the strongest one since the 2008 financial crisis.

Since April 2025, there have been over 30 percent more sellers than buyers, according to Redfin.

“There were an estimated 36.8 percent more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in October (or 528,769 more, in numerical terms)—the largest gap in records dating back to 2013,” the brokerage said.

Redfin said in a Nov. 17 report that home prices have climbed 0.3 percent month over month in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, and 2.9 percent from a year earlier.

There has been a slowdown in price growth with the increased number of listings, the company said.

“With demand still historically low, the slowdown in fresh supply and the shortage of buyers are largely offsetting each other,” said Redfin Head of Economics Research Chen Zhao. “Fewer metros are seeing month-to-month price declines than they were over the summer, but that doesn’t signal a pickup in demand. Sales are still slow, and many buyers who don’t need to move are staying on the sidelines.

“The sellers who are listing now often need to move, but it’s hard to attract buyers in a market where affordability is stretched and uncertainty remains high.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 13:05

Did Wendy's Just Lose The QSR War

Fast-food chains are locked in a fierce multi-year battle for low- and middle-income consumers, rolling out value meals and discounts to protect market share. But as budget-conscious customers pull back on spending, one apparent casualty of this fight has emerged: Wendy's.

Wendy's third-quarter results showed net sales down 4.4%, with same-restaurant sales falling 4.7%, driven by weaker foot traffic and higher labor costs.

Interim CEO/CFO Ken Cook told investors that the fast-food chain with 6,000 US stores faces "urgency" to return to growth.

"I am pleased by the strong performance as we continue to prioritize accelerating international expansion. In our U.S. business, sales remain under pressure," Cook told investors on a recent earnings call. 

He noted, "And we are acting with urgency to return U.S. comp sales to growth. We are making meaningful progress on key actions to enhance the customer experience, and we are seeing this payoff in our U.S. company-operated restaurants, which significantly outperformed the overall system in the third quarter." 

Expanding on the traffic slowdown, Goldman analysts led by Christine Cho cite Placer.ai location data showing that Wendy's foot traffic sharply deteriorated since mid-summer and collapsed this fall. This data is based on anonymized real-world mobile-device signals.

Data from Bloomberg Second Measure of sales and average transaction value growth also showed rapid deceleration. 

Bloomberg data also showed web traffic growth imploded. The analysts noted the decline "lapped the SpongeBob SquarePants collaboration." 

QSR Wars 

Cook told investors that a "comprehensive turnaround plan" called Project Fresh is underway to drive profitable growth and long-term value across the U.S. market, though whether it delivers remains to be seen.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 12:45