Europe's Counter-Plan For Ukraine Peace Leaves Door Wide Open For NATO Admission

Even as the Trump White House is busy in Europe trying to get NATO and EU states on board its 28-point peace plan which controversially demands the Ukrainian side cede territory, the Europeans have leaked their own counter-plan which proposes much less in the way of compromise with Russia.

The UK, France, and Germany have put forward their own counter-proposal, and the draft differs sharply from the US version. Like with prior proposed deals, it contains terms which Moscow is expected to flatly reject, mostly notably it does not provide guarantees that Ukraine will stay out of NATO, and also absent is the ceding of any territory.

While Trump's plan makes clear that Ukraine must renounce ever joining NATO, the European draft states that Ukraine’s potential NATO membership "depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist." This intentionally ambiguous language of course leaves leaves the door wide open, dependent on when such consensus is reached.

Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, right, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in Geneva on Sunday. via AP

On giving up land, the European document says that any discussions on territorial exchanges would start from the current Line of Contact. Freezing the front lines is something President Zelensky has wanted to do all along. Moscow has seen in this a way of allowing Ukrainian forces to regroup and rearm. 

Zelensky is already not happy with the US version of the peace plan, as Ukraine would surrender the areas of Donbas it still controls, and the front lines would be frozen in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - where Russian forces also holds territory.

However, one place where the US and European drafts do appear to be in lock-step is the one area the Kremlin is likely to take serious issue to: Washington and the West would provide security guarantee for Ukraine resembling NATO's Article 5 mutual-defense commitment.

Kiev has meanwhile been given until Thursday to provide its official response to the 28-point plan, and currently it simply looks like it is seeking the backing of Europe in coming up with a more robust pro-Ukraine plan. Trump wants to see the whole thing agreed to by Thanksgiving Day, but this is unlikely to happen, given also the leaks and ongoing blame-game over 'compromising' too much with Russia.

But all serious analysts are in agreement that Russia is dominating on the battlefield, leaving Ukraine with few options but to seek serious compromise to end the war. For example, one observer while commenting on the European plan notes it has no teeth (from Russia's perspective) and predictably Moscow will not see anything attractive in such a deal, which resembles previously failed ones, as it has:

• No ban on Ukraine joining NATO 
• Ukraine is "not be forced to be neutral"
• Ukraine is free to invite "friendly forces"
• Ceasefire & freezing current front lines 
• "No restriction" on size of Ukrainian military etc.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, surely having heard of a European counter-plan in the works, did not look impressed while in Europe on Sunday...

Marco Rubio:

I have not seen any "counter plan" from Europe. pic.twitter.com/8c5IpVo2F6

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 23, 2025

The controversy over the US plan has seen the renewal of accusations that Trump is being too "Russia-friendly" - but journalist Michael Tracey has noted:

There's some curious propaganda going on to make people think the Ukraine "peace proposal" is a pro-Russian scheme, when it commits the US militarily, economically, politically to Ukraine beyond what virtually anyone had contemplated, and severely curtails Russian war objectives.

The BBC on Monday has conveyed mixed messaging regarding "progress" on the US 28-point plan:

• Media have reported an updated peace plan drafted by European countries, which includes new terms such as the US providing security guarantee - the BBC has not independently verified its content
• Donald Trump has teased "big progress" after the weekend’s peace talks, saying "something good just may be happening"
• Russia says it has yet to receive any new peace plans, but is open to US contacts and talks
• Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia’s reported demands to recognise the territory they have "stolen" is the "main problem" stopping an agreement

As for President Vladimir Putin, he has said it could serve as a basis for talks. "I think it could also become the foundation for a final peace settlement, but we haven’t discussed the text thoroughly,” he told Russia’s Security Council on Friday. But he expressed skepticism that Kiev and its European backers will accept it, as they "still believe they can inflict a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield."

But the Kremlin has still indicated that aspects of the plan do show that finally the US side "has been listening to us" and is a step in the right direction.

Below is the full draft text of the alleged European counter-plan as circulated by Reuters.

* * *

1. Ukraine's sovereignty to be reconfirmed.

2. There will be a total and complete non-aggression agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine and NATO. All ambiguities from the last 30 years will be resolved.

(Point 3 of U.S. plan is deleted. A draft of that plan seen by Reuters said: "There will be the expectation that Russia will not invade its neighbours and NATO will not expand further.")

4. After a peace agreement is signed, a dialogue between Russia and NATO will convene to address all security concerns and create a de-escalatory environment to ensure global security and increase the opportunity for connectivity and future economic opportunity.

5. Ukraine will receive robust Security Guarantees

6. Size of Ukraine military to be capped at 800,000 in peacetime.

7. Ukraine joining NATO depends on consensus of NATO members, which does not exist.

8. NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime.

9. NATO fighter jets will be stationed in Poland

10. US guarantee that mirrors Article 5

a. US to receive compensation for the guarantee

b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it forfeits the guarantee

c. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a robust coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be restored and any kind of recognition for the new territory and all other benefits from this agreement will be withdrawn.

11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will get short-term preferred market access to Europe while this is being evaluated

12. Robust Global Redevelopment Package for Ukraine including but not limited to:

a. Creation of Ukraine Development fund to invest in high growth industries including technology, data centres and Al efforts

b. The United States will partner with Ukraine to jointly restore, grow, modernize and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, which includes its pipeline and storage facilities

c. A joint effort to redevelop areas impacted by the war to restore, redevelop and modernize cities and residential areas

d. Infrastructure development

e. Mineral and natural resource extraction

f. A special financing package will be developed by the World Bank to provide financing to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia to be progressively re-integrated into the global economy

a. Sanction relief will be discussed and agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis.

b. The United States will enter into a long-term Economic Cooperation Agreement to pursue mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, AI, datacenters, rare earths, joint projects in the Arctic, as well as various other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities.

c. Russia to be invited back into the G8

14. Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.

15. A joint Security taskforce will be established with the participation of US, Ukraine, Russia and the Europeans to promote and enforce all of the provisions of this agreement

16. Russia will legislatively enshrine a non-aggression policy towards Europe and Ukraine

17. The United States and Russia agree to extend nuclear non-proliferation and control treaties, including Fair Start

18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state under the NPT

19. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will be restarted under supervision of the IAEA, and the produced power shall be shared equitably in a 50-50 split between Russia and Ukraine.

20. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.

21. Territories

Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means. Negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the Line of Contact.

22. Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply if there is a breach of this obligation

23. Russia shall not obstruct Ukraine's use of the Dnieper River for purposes of commercial activities, and agreements will be reached for grain shipments to move freely through the Black Sea

24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve open issues:

a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the principle of All for All

b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children

c. There will be a family reunification program

d. Provisions will be made to address the suffering of victims from the conflict

25. Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.

26. Provision will be made to address the suffering of victims of the conflict.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Board of Peace, chaired by President Donald J. Trump. There will be penalties for violation.

28. Upon all sides agreeing to this memorandum, a ceasefire will be immediately effective upon both parties withdrawing to the agreed upon points for the implementation of the agreement to begin. Ceasefire modalities, including monitoring, will be agreed by both parties under US supervision.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 09:45

Lutnick: Decision On Nvidia's AI H200 Chip China Sales Now Sits On Trump's Desk

Building on last week's Bloomberg report that White House officials are quietly discussing whether to let Nvidia sell its advanced H200 AI chips to China - a complete 180 from the previous administration - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg TV earlier that the final decision to authorize those shipments now sits on President Trump's desk.

Lutnick spoke on a wide range of topics on Bloomberg TV earlier today, noting that the decision to authorize the sale of Nvidia's H200 chips to China is now on President Trump's desk.

"Lots of different advisers" are weighing in on it, Lutnick added. 

Lutnick's comments come days after a Bloomberg report that White House officials are weighing a significant concession to China,  potentially allowing H200 shipments that would ease current AI-chip export restrictions.

The White House is also urging Congress to reject a bipartisan bill that would require Nvidia to prioritize American customers over China.

The report made clear that within the administration, there is a significant split: some officials see H200 exports as a "compromise" preferable to Blackwell exports, while others oppose any additional Nvidia exports to the world's second-largest economy. 

Also on Bloomberg TV, Lutnick spoke about the ongoing EU negotiations on steel and aluminum tariffs. He pressed the EU to ease its digital-rules agenda, noting that some member states are more flexible, and said he also spoke with the Europeans about diesel markets. 

He warned that if courts strike down existing tariffs, the administration is prepared to respond with new actions immediately.

Could those new actions take the form of financial sanctions against trading partners?

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 09:05

Spiraling Costs And A Broken Insurance Market - What Went Wrong With Obamacare

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

The government shutdown might be over, but the political and financial problems that dog Obamacare haven’t gone away.

Congress is now debating a second extension of the temporary tax credits that have shielded Obamacare users from rising costs for five years. Without the subsidies, Democrats say millions of Americans will be priced out of the health insurance market at the stroke of midnight on New Year’s Eve.

President Donald Trump and other Republicans don’t want an extension; they want a transformational change that eliminates what they say are the unworkable policies and perverse incentives that have plagued the program from the beginning.

It isn’t just Republicans who say Obamacare went awry. Many experts and even some Democrats recognize that while the program did make health coverage more affordable for 24 million Americans at one point, it has essentially backfired.

Here’s how they think Obamacare went off course, how it might be overhauled, and how it upended the wider health insurance market.

Failed Aims

The Affordable Care Act aimed to make health insurance affordable for everyone and lower health care costs across the board.

“The reality of the [Affordable Care Act] could not be more different,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the think tank American Action Forum, said in written comments to a Senate committee on Nov. 19.

Republicans have said the system was poorly designed from its beginning in 2014. Now, some Democrats agree it has not been successful.

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) said as much in a Nov. 6 speech imploring colleagues to extend the temporary tax credits, which expire in December.

“I owe you an answer on why it is I am standing here today asking to extend something that was temporary,” Welch said. “Here is the reason: We did fail to bring down the cost of health care.”

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said on Nov. 19: “I think there’s remarkable agreement between Democrats and Republicans. Obamacare failed to give access to all Americans to health care, and Obamacare failed to control health care costs.”

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) speaks with reporters after a Democratic luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 6, 2025. Welch said the temporary tax credits should be extended because the Affordable Care Act has not reduced health care costs. Eric Lee/Getty Images

Rising Costs

When Obamacare was proposed, the Congressional Budget Office projected that enrollment would reach 29 million by 2019 and that the percentage of uninsured adults would drop from 17 percent to 6 percent.

That didn’t happen. By 2019, enrollment had plateaued at around 11.4 million, and about 11 percent of adults remained uninsured.

A year later, Congress altered the program in 2020 to help Americans cope with the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 state of emergency.

The key change was the addition of “enhanced” tax credits that made middle-income households eligible for subsidized health care and allowed some low-income households to get coverage with a zero-dollar premium.

The enhanced credits were offered for two years, beginning in 2021, then extended through 2025.

Enrollment skyrocketed, doubling in five years.

But the cost was climbing rapidly, too.

Even before the enhanced tax credits came online, premiums had more than doubled since 2013, the year before Obamacare began. By 2025, the increase reached nearly 133 percent, about four times the rate of inflation.

Health care costs generally rose dramatically in that decade, partly because of rising wages, consolidation within the industry, an aging population, and the popularity of new and expensive medications, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Meanwhile, some analysts say Obamacare is the key driver of higher premiums.

An Obamacare sign is displayed outside an insurance agency in Miami on Nov. 12, 2025. Data show enrollment has surged since enhanced tax credits began in 2021, roughly doubling over five years. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Market Disruption

With traditional health insurance (and other forms of insurance), the price to the customer is based on the risk to the insurer and the type of coverage they choose.

Obamacare is different, however.

A key selling point of Obamacare was that it largely ended the practice of excluding people from health coverage due to preexisting conditions.

No one would be denied coverage due to illness, and all plans were required to offer the same set of minimum benefits.

As this one-size-fits-all system treats high- and low-risk customers the same, many younger, healthier people left the market, leading to higher premiums.

And because preexisting conditions are not a barrier to coverage, those consumers enter the market only when they become ill, raising costs even higher, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told The Epoch Times.

Those increases spread across the industry because the Affordable Care Act requires insurers to offer Obamacare compliant policies to individuals and small groups in the commercial market.

The solution, Johnson said, is to cover those with existing illnesses in high-risk pools, which allow groups of people within Obamacare to be priced and subsidized separately.

“You have to reestablish those,” Johnson said. “You have to start by covering people with preexisting conditions.

“You bring as much free market back into health care as possible, so people are actually competing for customers with price, customer service, and quality.”

A Spiral Masked by Subsidies

Gross federal subsidies of Obamacare now stand at an estimated $138 billion per year, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Those subsidies have masked the rise in premiums, allowing them to rise virtually unchecked, according to Brian Blase, founder of think tank Paragon Health Institute.

“When enrollees pay only a small slice of the premium or no premium at all, insurers face almost no price discipline,” Blase told Senators on Nov. 19.

By 2024, 80 percent of Obamacare customers qualified for plans costing them no more than $10 per month, according to the Treasury Department.

That created a spiral that kept pushing the cost up, Blase said. “Higher premiums created pressure for still more subsidies. More subsidies lock in a high-cost system and permit large insurers and hospital systems to remain inefficient.”

That rising premiums also drove out general market consumers who did not qualify for a subsidy, causing even further increases, said Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The Obamacare market was designed for a 50/50 mix of private-sector customers and those who need financial help, Oz said in a Nov. 16 interview with CNN.

“We have priced the systems now so heavily with government subsidies that it crowds out the private shopper,” Oz said.

Medicare and Medicaid Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz speaks at the White House on Nov. 6, 2025. Oz said rising insurance premiums pushed out consumers who did not qualify for subsidies, driving prices even higher. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

Perverse Incentives in the Workplace

Large employers, those with more than 50 employees, face a $2,900 fine for each full-time worker who receives an Obamacare subsidy. That’s to encourage companies to offer employer-sponsored health insurance.

In reality, it may have the opposite effect for employees earning below a certain level, according to Holtz-Eakin.

“You could do the math and figure out that … it made a lot of sense for employers to just stop being in the insurance business, put their workers in the exchanges, and both the worker and the employer could come out ahead,” Holtz-Eakin said.

That appears to have happened in many smaller companies, which have no threat of a fine to induce them to buy insurance for employees.

The year before Obamacare began, 85 percent of companies with 25 to 49 workers offered health insurance for their employees. By 2025, that had fallen to 64 percent.

American Action Forum President Douglas Holtz-Eakin speaks during a Senate Budget Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 25, 2021. Susan Walsh-Pool/Getty Images

Ripe for Fraud

When the enhanced tax credits were introduced in 2021, 42 percent of the uninsured population qualified for a policy with a zero-dollar premium. To boost and maintain enrollment during the health emergency, eligibility checks were relaxed, and reenrollment was automated.

Also, insurance brokers receive a commission for each person they enroll.

Those factors made the program ripe for fraud and abuse, Blase said.

“Many enrollees were signed up without their knowledge or consent,” Blase said. He noted that some unscrupulous vendors promised enrollees cash benefits, and others were moved from one plan to another without their consent.

Approximately 2.8 million people were dually enrolled in Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program in multiple states in 2024, or simultaneously enrolled in one of those programs and an Obamacare plan, according to federal data.

Also, 40 percent of those enrolled in a zero-premium plan in 2024, more than 4 million people, filed no medical claims.

The national average for zero-claim health insurance customers is 15 percent, according to Paragon Health Institute, which estimates that taxpayers spent $35 billion in 2024 to insure people who were unaware they had coverage.

A patient receives care at a health clinic in Asheville, N.C., on June 27, 2025. Critics say the Affordable Care Act’s one-size-fits-all rules led young, healthy people to pay more, prompting them to leave the market and driving premiums higher. Allison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images

Government Versus Market Solutions

While Democrats acknowledge that rising health care costs are a problem, they say it’s not related to Obamacare. Proposed solutions generally involve increasing corporate taxes and cracking down on corporate abuses.

“Insurance premiums are skyrocketing,” Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Ill.) told The Epoch Times on Nov. 20. He named government negotiations on drug prices and higher corporate taxes as partial solutions.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said on Nov. 19 that reducing health care costs “means reining in insurance company abuses across the health care system.”

Republicans generally favor market-based reforms that give consumers more control over their health care spending.

“The free market guarantees three things,” Johnson said. “The lowest possible price and cost, the best possible quality, and the best level of customer service.”

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) arrives for a hearing in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025. Republicans, including Johnson, generally favor market-based reforms that give consumers more control over their health care spending. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

“The free market guarantees three things,” Johnson said. “The lowest possible price and cost, the best possible quality, and the best level of customer service.”

Trump has proposed a direct cash payment to low- and middle-income Americans to be used for health care expenses. Cassidy and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) have proposed similar ideas.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) named direct primary care, health sharing ministries, and expanded Health Savings Accounts as ways to empower patients to make their own health decisions.

“I want to free up individuals to have better options,” Roy told The Epoch Times. “If you’re starting there, then you’re going to be transformative, and that will drive prices down,” Roy said.

Congress is expected to vote in mid-December on an extension of enhanced subsidies and possibly other health care reforms.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 08:45

Futures Rise As Bullish Sentiment Returns After Rollercoaster Week

US equity futures are higher, but off their overnight highs, as the market looks to rebound from its worst week since early Oct; sentiment was lifted after shares of Alibaba jumped 4.7% in Hong Kong after a strong debut for its AI app; also boosting futs was a spike in December rate cut hopes and bullish comments from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson. Still, after a bruising week, and with key macro data delayed until after the December FOMC, bulls are tentative as the S&P is -3.5% MTD, its worst monthly performance since March. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.6%, but moving fast in an extremely illiquid environment. Pre-mkt, Mag7 names are higher led a 3% gain for Alphabet. Semis are boosted by AVGO / NVDA up 24 and 40bp. Cyclicals, ex-Materials, are higher and outperforming Defensives. Novo Nordisk slumped 10% in Copenhagen after studies showed an Ozempic pill failed to slow Alzheimer’s progression. Bond yields are lower by 1-3bp as the yield curve bull flattens and the USD trades lower. Bitcoin began the week on the back foot - with a slam shortly after the European open killing hopes for a modest rally - following a prolonged selloff that has put the token on track for its worst month since 2022. Crude is trading near session highs, reversing an earlier slide, following the biggest weekly loss since early October, as traders watch US-Ukraine talks for signs on whether a Russia peace deal could increase crude flows. Trump floats a 2-yr ACA extension with increased restrictions on qualifying for the program with additional details expected this week. More Sept macro data will be released this week with the market most likely to care about Retail Sales into Black Friday / Cyber Monday.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Alphabet +3.4%, Tesla +1.8%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta Platforms +0.8%, Microsoft +0.4%, Nvidia +0.6%, Apple is flat)

• Alibaba ADRs (BABA) gain 3.9% after the company said its re-branded Qwen AI tool hit 10 million downloads in the first week after it became available to the public.
• Biogen Inc. (BIIB), a drugmaker with an Alzheimer’s treatment on the market, rises 4% after Novo Nordisk said a pill version of Ozempic failed to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease.
• Bristol Myers (BMY) climbs 3.8% after peer developer, Bayer AG, said an experimental stroke-prevention drug showed positive results in a late-stage study. Analysts see positive readthrough to Bristol’s drug, milvexian, with Cantor calling the data a “needed win” for the space.
• Green Dot (GDOT) jumps 17% after entering into agreements to be acquired by Smith Ventures and CommerceOne Financial Corporation in a deal that will split the company’s operations between the two buyers.
• MP Materials shares (MP) are up 2.7% after BMO upgraded its recommendation to outperform, saying the stock’s recent pullback offers a buying opportunity into the long-term theme of the US shoring up its rare-earth supply chain.
• Performance Food Group (PFGC) falls 2% after US Foods says it’s no longer pursuing a combination with the company.
• Primoris Services Corp. (PRIM) slips 1.3% after the construction and engineering services company was initiated at Goldman Sachs with a recommendation of sell.
• WeRide Inc. ADRs (WRD) gain 9% after it narrowed its third-quarter net loss on increased robotaxi orders, as it races for a slice of the growing global market for driverless cabs.

In corporate news, Revolut garnered a $75 billion valuation in its latest share sale, a steep increase from the $45 billion price tag it received last year. US officials are said to be having early discussions on whether to let Nvidia sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. Trump said that no television networks should be able to expand, citing the potential growth of what he considers left-wing news outlets.

Futures gained to start the week as the AI narrative was boosted by strong demand for Alibaba’s relaunched AI app, while comments from NY Fed’s Williams on Friday led investors to boost the odds of a rate cut next month to around 70%. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson reckons the recent stock-market pullback is coming to an end and sees a buying opportunity into 2026.

Still, few expect smooth sailing, and as reported overnight, traders are scrambling for downside protection and paying up to lock in S&P 500 gains, especially when it comes to tech. The cost of options on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF is hovering near its highest level since August 2024 versus that for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. 

“There’s still a positive backdrop for the tech sector,” said Kevin Thozet, member of Carmignac Gestion’s investment committee. “Typically, seasonality is pretty good walking into Thanksgiving and the end of the year. So I’m rather risk-on from now on and into the first-quarter of 2026.”

In hedge fund news, Ray Dalio thinks the ‘pod shop’ hedge fund multi-strat model won’t last. Bill Ackman is said to be revving up a long-anticipated plan to hold an IPO for his Pershing Square Capital Management, the FT reported. 

European stocks edged higher on Monday, the Stoxx 600 rising 0.2% to 563.34, after their worst weekly drop since early August.Construction and travel shares outperformed, while insurers lagged. Defense stocks also underperform in Europe, although have been offset by gains in construction, auto and travel names. Rheinmetall led a drop in defense stocks after Ukraine signaled progress in reconciling its position with the US on a potential peace deal with Russia. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Ubisoft shares surge as much as 15%, the most since December, after the French video game producer announced that it had finalized a deal for Tencent to inject €1.16 billion into its Vantage Studios unit.
• Bayer shares jump as much as 12%, to the highest level since October 2024, after the German company said an experimental stroke-prevention drug called asundexian showed positive results in a late-stage clinical study.
• Vistry shares gain as much as 6.5%, the most since June, after Goldman Sachs initiated the UK homebuilder with a buy recommendation.
• Nemetschek shares climb as much as 4.6%, the most since May, as Jefferies started coverage of the German software firm with a buy rating.
• BMW shares gain as much as 2.7% after after Goldman Sachs initiated the automaker with a buy recommendation. Ferrari and Mercedes shares also gained after being rated new buys.
• Julius Baer shares drop as much as 5.9%, the most since May, after the Swiss lender said 2025 profit would be lower than last year.
• Rheinmetall shares fall as much 5.8%, hitting their lowest level since April, as European defense stocks drop on signs of progress in talks to secure Ukraine’s support for a US-backed peace plan. Leonardo, Thales and Saab also fell.
• M&C Saatchi shares drop as much as 18%, hitting their lowest level since 2021, after warning the US government shutdown has affected trading, prompting the advertising agency to cut its outlook.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities opened the week higher on optimism over a potential Federal Reserve rate cut and a rebound in AI-linked Chinese tech shares traded in Hong Kong. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index climbed as much as 1.2%, with Alibaba being the biggest contributor to its gain. The company’s shares led a rally in peers after saying its rebranded AI app Qwen hit 10 million downloads in the week after it became available to the public. The Hang Seng Tech Index jumped more than 3% intraday after a four-week losing run. Tencent and Samsung Electronics were other major contributors to the regional index’s advance. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and Australia rose, while Japan was closed for a holiday. Asian markets have been volatile in recent weeks amid uncertainty over the Fed’s easing as well as doubts over the potential for returns from the AI sector that has been attracting vast sums of money.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is steady. The euro and Swiss franc vie for top spot among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.2% each.

Treasuries inch higher, with US 10-year yields down 1 bp at 4.05%. European government bonds also edge up. In early US trading long-end tenors outperform, slightly flattening 2s10s and 5s30s curves ahead of the 2-year note auction at 1pm New York time. Auction cycle begins a day earlier than usual ahead of Thursday’s US Thanksgiving Day holiday. European bonds trade steady, including Italian debt after the country’s upgrade by Moody’s Ratings on Friday. Long-end yields are richer by 2bp-3bp with front-end tenors little changed, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads about 2bp; 10-year near session low 4.05% is about 1.7bp lower, outperforming bunds and gilts.  $69 billion 2-year note auction has WI yield near 3.50%, within 1bp of last month’s, which tailed by 0.1bp; auction cycle also includes $70 billion 5-year Tuesday and $44 billion 7-year Wednesday

In commodities, WTI crude futures slip 0.7% to $57.70 a barrel as traders weigh the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal after President Zelenskiy’s chief of staff said discussions demonstrated significant progress in reconciling positions. European natural gas futures drop 3% and below €30 a megawatt-hour for the first time in more than a year.  Bitcoin again fell below $86,000 after a weekend rebound and is on track for its worst month since 2022. 

The US economic calendar includes November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (12pm); Fed speaker slate is blank

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 -0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.05%
• VIX +0.2 points at 23.58
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1226.52
• euro +0.2% at $1.1537
• WTI crude -0.6% at $57.73/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump is expected to announce as early as Monday a general framework to address healthcare costs, proposed legislation would eliminate zero premium subsidies currently offered under the ACA, according to MS NOW. It was later reported that US President Trump is to sign an executive order on Monday at 4:00pm EST. 
• Bessent said they are seeing prices get better and will see an announcement this week on healthcare costs, while he added that inflation is up because of services, not imported goods. Bessent said he expects some prices to come down in weeks and others in months. Furthermore, he said that Republicans should end the filibuster if Democrats close the government again, while he noted the government shutdown caused a $11BN permanent hit to US GDP.
• Trump's DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) has disbanded with eight months left to its mandate.
• Texas officials asked the US Supreme Court to allow a pro-Republican electoral map that a lower court blocked.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citi (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are among those that have been notified by SitusAMC that their client data may have been taken: NYT.
• Japan reaffirmed plans to deploy missiles on an island near Taiwan as tensions smolder with China. BBG
• China unveiled details of a global mining initiative with 19 nations in an apparent response to US efforts to rally allies for an alternative rare earth supply chain. BBG
• Early signs on Japan's annual wage negotiations for next year point to another round of solid pay hikes despite profit pressure from U.S. tariffs, bolstering the case for the BoJ to raise interest rates further. RTRS
• German business confidence unexpectedly dipped this month, Ifo’s expectations index showed. Expectations component coming in at 90.6 for Nov, down from 91.6 in Oct and below the consensus forecast of 91.6. BBG
• US and Ukraine officials say they made progress in peace talks over the weekend, although neither side provide much detail on how the blueprint had evolved from last week’s initial draft. NYT
• Scott Bessent told NBC’s Meet the Press that the Trump administration is working on bringing down US health-care costs and an announcement is planned for this week. BBG
• The Trump administration is working on fallback options in case the Supreme Court strikes down one of his major tariff authorities, looking to replace the levies as quickly as possible. They are studying alternatives, including Section 301 and Section 122 of the Trade Act, which grant the president unilateral ability to impose duties, but these replacements come with risks and could face their own legal challenges. BBG
• President Trump said this week he expects much lower interest rates once he can install a new Federal Reserve chair next May. Growing opposition to a December rate cut inside the central bank suggests he might not get his way. WSJ
• The bond market is straining to absorb a flood of new bonds from tech companies funding their artificial intelligence investments, adding to the recent pressure in markets. Since the start of September, so-called AI hyperscalers Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle have issued nearly $90 billion of investment-grade bonds, according to Dealogic, more than they had sold over the previous 40 months. WSJ
• Hedge funds and mutual funds both currently favor Health Care and Industrials. Hedge funds increased their net tilt to Health Care last quarter by 260 bp, the largest increase among sectors. Goldman

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive following last Friday's advances on Wall St, where sentiment was lifted as dovish comments from Fed's Williams rekindled December rate cut hopes, while 'tremendous' progress was said to have been made during Ukraine peace talks in Geneva on Sunday, although conditions were quiet amid a sparse overnight calendar and with Japanese markets closed for Labor Day. ASX 200 rallied at the open with outperformance in tech and industrials front running the advances, while there were also some M&A related headlines with Qube surging to a record high on Macquarie Asset Management's fresh AUD 11.6bln takeover proposal. Conversely, BHP shares were indecisive and eventually trickled lower after it was reported to have made a renewed approach for Anglo American, which was rejected, prompting BHP to abandon its pursuit again. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp Chinese markets are mixed with gains led by tech strength, although semiconductor names are pressured, including SMIC, following a report on Friday that US President Trump’s team was internally floating selling NVIDIA H200 chips to China.

Top Asian News

• BoJ board member Masu said on Friday that the BoJ is 'close' to the decision to raise rates but can't say which month. Masu stated it is not good for real interest rates to be deeply negative and that Japan's policy rate is lower than the neutral rate, which he strongly believes they need to change quickly, while he said they won't wait until after the Spring wage talks to end in raising rates.
• Japan is said to be open to intervening in the currency market “to mitigate the side effects of a weak yen,” according to a government panel member.
• New Zealand PM Luxon vowed to increase the pension saving scheme, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.2%) opened stronger across the board, following on from a mostly firmer APAC session and as markets digested the latest geopolitical progress between Ukraine and Russia, whereby US Sec of State Rubio suggested "tremendous progress" has been made. However, as the morning progressed, a hefty bout of pressure took indices to session lows to now display a mixed picture in Europe - a move which lacked catalysts. European sectors opened with a clear cyclical bias. Autos, Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources lead whilst Energy underperforms as the oil complex remains pressure amidst the constructive geopolitical environment; a factor which has led to downside across Defence names, with the likes of Rheinmetall (-2%) on the backfoot.

Top European News

• Smooth End to the Year Now Looks Far Less Likely
• BHP Walks Away From Anglo; Portugal’s TAP
• Europe’s IPO Bankers See a Revival Next Year, for Real This Time

FX

• DXY is a little lower today and trades within a thin 100.08 to 100.29 range. Newsflow has been relatively quiet for the index this morning, but may pick-up later this week as Fed speak and the Fed's Beige Book will give further insight on the health of the economy.
• EUR/USD has picked up a touch since the European cash open, and has recently made a peak of 1.1540 vs the session low of 1.1503. No clear catalyst for the move itself, but potentially as markets digest the latest bout of geopolitical updates between Russia and Ukraine. Elsewhere, no move after a subdued German Ifo set, which saw Expectations slip below the lower end of analyst expectations.
• Muted price action also in GBP/USD, currently within a narrow 1.3086-1.3111 range. Price action this morning has been sideways, with newsflow light and as traders count down their clocks to Wednesday's UK Budget. Sky News recently outlined that the UK's OBR will reportedly say that growth is lower in 2026 and every Parliament year in the Budget. Pertinently, the Treasury hopes to surprise with bigger than expected headroom, an outcome that would be welcome by markets; as a reminder, consensus is in a broad GBP 10-20bln+ range for headroom, vs the GBP 9.9bln Reeves had last time.
• JPY is the underperformer today, likely thanks to the broader risk-tone, but with Japanese participants also away on holiday. Currently towards the upper end of a 156.43 to 156.93 range. Weekend newsflow has been light aside from commentary via Japanese government panel member, who suggested that PM Takaichi is open to JPY intervention. A report which has seemingly been shrugged off by markets, as the JPY continues to weaken.
• Antipodeans are mildly lower vs the Dollar, with no real catalysts driving things for the moment; focus remains on the RBNZ announcement on Wednesday, where a 25bps cut is widely expected.
• Barclays FX month-end rebalancing: strong USD buying against all majors.

Fixed Income

• Bond price action is lacklustre this morning. Overnight action was subdued as Japanese participants were away for holiday, and the European morning has lacked material newsflow to shift sentiment.
• USTs are trading rangebound in a tight 113-05+ to 113-09 range. Trade updates this morning have been non-incremental, with some focus on a Bloomberg piece suggesting that the White House is preparing a tariff fallback ahead of the court ruling. The rest of the day is fairly light, aside from some Tier 2 US data - more focus will be on the coming days, where markets will get more Fed speak, Retail Sales, Weekly Claims and the Beige Book.
• Bunds are firmer by a handful of ticks, but ultimately following the above and trades within a 128.81 to 129.00 range. This morning German paper saw a slight pick-up and attempted (but failed) to lift above the 129.00 mark, alongside pressure in WTI and Brent (spurred on by geopol progress). Thereafter, some sideways trade before then catching another slight bid, as the European risk tone slipped off best levels. Elsewhere, no move to a subdued German Ifo survey, which saw New Expectations slip below the most pessimistic of analyst expectations.
• Gilts opened higher by three ticks and now flat, echoing the bias in core peers. A lot of final weekend press reporting around the budget, the main developments focused on pensions. Earlier, Sky News reported that the OBR is set to lower the growth view for every parliamentary year, Chancellor Reeves reportedly to argue this is not due to the government (reminder, Reeves recently identified Brexit as the structural factor behind the challenging UK environment). Furthermore, the Treasury is said to be looking to surprise with bigger than expected headroom, an outcome that would be welcome by markets; as a reminder, consensus is in a broad GBP 10-20bln+ range for headroom, vs the GBP 9.9bln Reeves had last time.
• BTPs are firmer by 22 ticks at most, notching a 121.05 peak. Following Moody's upgrading Italy to Baa3 (prev. Baa2), Outlook Stable (prev. Positive) on Friday.
• OATs are firmer, but only modestly so, awaiting fiscal updates. On Friday, the Revenue section of the budget bill failed in the National Assembly. As such, the text now goes to the Senate and Parliament has until the 23rd of December to deliberate it. Now, attention turns to the Social Security Financing Bill, a joint committee set to rule on it on Wednesday before it then (if it passes) goes to the National Assembly and then Senate for approval. Politico sources report a "one in three chance" that the joint committee would approve it. Unsurprisingly, pension reform is the sticking point.
• German Finance Agency's Diemer says 2026 issuance is likely to exceed EUR 500bln, via Econostream. Adds: Same issuance structure in 2026 but with higher volumes. Higher term premia will be considered in determining the 2026 maturity profile. Confident that no mid-year revisions to issuance plans will be necessary. Will continue to use syndications in 2026 but will focus on longer maturities. Says that they see only very isolated structural demand for ultra long bonds, will not launch a strategic market presence there for the foreseeable future. Issuance in foreign currencies is not currently planned.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent were initially rangebound, but saw negative downticks at the start of the European sessions, and then extended on that pressure taking the complex down to fresh session lows. Brent Feb'26 made a trough of US 61.34/bbl vs peak of USD 62.18/bbl. Downside today has been facilitated by the positive mood music via US Secretary of State Rubio, who suggested a meeting with Ukrainian officials had led to "tremendous progress".
• Dutch TTF Dec'25 has taken a hit following the talks in Geneva, trading below EUR 30/MWh for the first time since May 2024. After opening at EUR 30.06/MWh, Dutch TTF has faltered and remains near session lows at EUR 29.20/MWh.
• Spot XAU fell to a trough of USD 4040/oz at the start of the APAC session following the positive risk tone from the Geneva talks. However, XAU has turned around and is currently trading just shy of session highs at USD 4078/oz, benefitting in part from the risk tone souring a touch after the European open. Note, XAU in a thin sub-40/oz band.
• 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.77k-10.81k/t band to start the European session but briefly dipped to a trough of USD 10.75k/t as global equities pulled back from best, despite a lack of specific newsflow.
• A majority Chinese-owned plant at Indonesia’s most important nickel site is cutting back production due to its tailing site being nearly full, according to Bloomberg citing sources

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s military said it killed a Hamas commander in Gaza City, while the Israeli military confirmed that Hezbollah military leader Ali Tabtabai was killed in an Israeli strike in southern Beirut.
• Canadian PM Carney and German Chancellor Merz discussed the situation in the Middle East and noted their support for the comprehensive peace plan to end the war in Gaza, while they reaffirmed support for Ukraine and underscored that any settlement must include Ukraine’s involvement.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said they are grateful for all efforts by US President Trump and the US to end the war. Zelensky said they also thank Europe, the G7 and the G20 for helping them protect lives, while they are working on every point and every step to achieve peace. Zelensky also commented that there are signals that the US team is hearing them.
• US President Trump said ‘no’ when asked if his offer is the final one for Ukraine. Trump separately commented that the Ukrainian leadership has expressed zero gratitude for our efforts and that Europe continues to buy oil from Russia.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said we’ve had the most productive and meaningful meeting so far and made good progress. Rubio said there is still some work left to do, and their teams will revert on Sunday night with more updates, while Rubio added this will have to be signed off by their presidents, but he is comfortable about that. Rubio later commented that they made a tremendous amount of progress and have a foundational document, while they were able to narrow down the points of the plan, but added that work remains to be done. Furthermore, he said they are much further ahead than when they began on Sunday morning and noted there are some outstanding issues involving the role of the EU and NATO, but stated that none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.
• US official said that talks between US and Ukrainian officials so far have been productive and even conclusive in some areas, while it was also reported that US and Ukrainian officials were discussing a possible trip by Ukrainian President Zelensky to Washington to discuss the peace plan, possibly this week, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• European leaders’ summit on Ukraine stated that they believe the US 28-point peace plan required additional work and they are concerned by proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, while they are clear on the principle that Ukraine’s borders must not be changed by force.
• European counterproposal to the US’s Ukraine peace plan proposes that the Ukrainian military be capped at 800,000 in peacetime and stated that Ukraine joining NATO depends on the consensus of NATO members, which does not exist, while NATO agrees not to permanently station troops under its command in Ukraine in peacetime. The counterproposal also stated that NATO jets will be stationed in Poland and Ukraine will receive a US guarantee that mirrors NATO’s Article 5, as well as noted that Ukraine will be compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates for damage to Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine commits not to recover its occupied sovereign territory through military means, while negotiations on territorial swaps will start from the line of contact, and Ukraine will hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the peace agreement.
• White House readout stated there was an extensive and productive meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, while it added that the Ukrainian delegation affirmed all of their principal concerns and believes the current draft reflects their national interests. Furthermore, it stated Ukrainians underscored that the strengthened security guarantee architecture meaningfully addresses their core strategic requirements and they agreed to continue consultations as the agreements move toward final refinement.
• Nordic-Baltic Eight Leaders’ joint statement noted that they spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky and stated that Russia has so far not committed to a ceasefire or any steps leading to peace, while they will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen Europe’s defence to deter further Russian aggression.
• Russia’s Ryabkov said regarding chances of another Trump-Putin meeting that the issue is on the agenda and nothing can be ruled out, while he added that progress in building dialogue between Russia and the US is impressive and that contacts are yielding results.
• Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Petrivske in Ukraine’s Donetsk and took control of the Tikhe and Odradne regions in eastern Ukraine, according to TASS. It was also reported that Russian forces captured Nove Zaporizhzhia and Zvanivka in eastern Ukraine, according to RIA.
• Ukrainian drones struck a heat and electricity station in Moscow region’s Shatura, which caused a fire.
• Ukraine's Parliamentary speaker announces a series of Ukraine's red lines in negotiations in regards to the peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
• Russia's Kremlin says no official information has been received from the Geneva talks and no meeting has been planned between Russia and the US this week.

Geopolitics: Other

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China urges Japan to reflect on and correct mistakes as soon as possible and not become obsessed, while he added that Japan’s leader sent a wrong signal of trying to intervene in the Taiwan issue by force and crossed the red line that should not be touched. Wang also said that if Japan continues down this path, countries have the right to re-examine Japan’s historical crimes. It was separately reported that a senior Japanese government spokeswoman said China’s claim that Japan has altered its position is entirely baseless, while Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi said during a visit to the island of Yonaguni in Okinawa that Japan is on track to deploy missiles to the island, which is near Taiwan.
• US is poised to start a new phase of Venezuela-related operations and is weighing options, including to overthrow Venezuela’s government, while covert operations are expected to come first, according to officials cited by Reuters.- Armed bandits kidnapped more than 300 students from a Catholic school in Nigeria on Friday, while it was reported on Sunday that fifty of the kidnapped students have escaped.
• White House said South Africa is refusing to facilitate a smooth transition of the G20 presidency and has weaponised its G20 presidency to undermine the G20’s founding principles.

US Event Calendar

12:00pm ET: November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It should be another busy, but holiday shortened, week after a volatile one last week as markets whipsawed around big moves in Fed pricing and AI bubble risk fears. The highlight for me is that at the end of the week I’ll be allowed to putt for a maximum of 10 minutes a day, 6 weeks after back fusion surgery. That’ll still be another 4.5 months minimum from then before I can swing a club in anger though! My wife has been despairing at me as I’ve been looking at industrial torches on Amazon that will allow me to putt at my local golf course in the evening. I’ve found one that is the nearest thing to a portable lighthouse that will give me 100 yards or so when I’m allowed to chip and pitch. Black Friday is coming at the right time.

Before we get to Thanksgiving, in the US, delayed post-shutdown data will be compressed into the first three days because of the holiday. Tomorrow brings September’s retail sales and PPI, followed on Wednesday by jobless claims and durable goods orders. The claims data will be particularly important as they cover the November survey week, and the Federal Reserve is expected to lean heavily on these figures and other alternative indicators ahead of its December meeting, given there’ll be no more payroll data prior to the FOMC.

Globally, attention will turn to inflation reports from Europe and Japan, as well as the long-awaited UK Budget, which could prove pivotal for the country’s fragile fiscal outlook. Perhaps the most significant geopolitical development will be Ukraine’s response to the US ultimatum to accept the 28-point peace plan agreed with Russia, with an ultimatum set for before Thanksgiving on Thursday, although the US seem to have indicated over the weekend that there is some room for negotiation (more below).

Let's start with the US, and for tomorrow's September PPI data, benign prints are expected by our economists for headline (+0.2% vs -0.1% last) and core (+0.2% vs -0.1%), echoing recent CPI trends. Categories feeding into core PCE will be in focus, with forecasts pointing to a 0.26% monthly gain, keeping the annual rate near 2.9%. This will be the last inflation update before the Fed’s December decision, as October CPI and November CPI have been pushed back to mid-December.

Retail sales are forecast by our economists to show modest gains after strong summer spending: headline +0.1% (vs +0.6% last), ex-auto +0.2% (vs +0.7%), while retail control may dip slightly (-0.1% vs +0.7%). Even so, Q3 retail control growth is tracking at 6.8% annualised —the strongest since early 2023—supporting expectations for robust goods spending once GDP data is published. Factory sector updates arrive Wednesday with durable goods orders for September and the Chicago PMI for November (45.0 vs 43.8). Headline orders are expected to fall (-2.4% vs +2.9%), but ex-transportation (+0.2% vs +0.4%) and core orders (+0.2% vs +0.6%) should post moderate gains, implying a solid 5.3% annualised increase for Q3. Don’t forget Black Friday where we will start to see early evidence of how strong consumer spending is into the important Christmas period. No Fed speakers are scheduled at this stage. The blackout period begins on Saturday ahead of the December meeting but with Thanksgiving on Thursday, it will start a lot earlier than it normally would.  

European data highlights include preliminary November CPI prints for Germany (2.6% YoY expected), France (0.92%) and Italy (1.23%) on Friday, alongside Q3 GDP releases for Norway, Sweden and Switzerland. Germany’s Ifo survey kicks off the week today, followed by consumer confidence on Thursday and retail sales Friday. France will also report confidence and spending data that day. In the UK, the Autumn Budget on Wednesday will be the main event. Expectations point to roughly £35bn in fiscal consolidation, marking a second historic tax-raising budget under Chancellor Reeves. See our economist Sanjay Raja’s preview here in what is one of the most hotly anticipated UK budgets in recent memory. Sanjay may need a lie down in a dark room after Wednesday as it’s fair to say he’s been in high demand of late.  

From central banks, the ECB will publish its October meeting account on Thursday and its consumer expectations survey Friday. In New Zealand, the RBNZ meets Wednesday, with a 25bps rate cut anticipated. Elsewhere, Australia reports October CPI (Wednesday), Canada releases Q3 GDP, and China publishes October industrial profits. Japan’s focus will be on November Tokyo CPI and October activity data (Friday). With Q3 earnings season winding down, results from Alibaba, Meituan, Analog Devices, Dell and HP will draw attention.

In terms of weekend developments, the news flow has escalated very quickly with regards to the war in Ukraine. After news broke on Thursday of a 28 point peace plan that was aligned following meetings between US envoy Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, politicians and diplomats have been scrambling after being caught off guard. Trump appeared to give Kyiv a deadline of Thanksgiving (this Thursday) to accept the proposals, though later said that it was “not my final offer”. Last night we heard positive comments from Secretary of State Marco Rubio after talks with Ukrainian officials in Geneva, with the sides drafting “an updated and refined peace framework” and agreeing “to continue intensive work” in the coming days. Meanwhile, European leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 conference in South Africa, with outlets including Reuters reporting a European counter-proposal that pushes back on elements of the US draft such as territorial concessions. So, plenty of diplomatic moving parts to watch in the next few days.

The mood in Asia continues to improve after a bounce on Friday as Fed cut expectations spiked higher. The Hang Seng (+1.95%) is leading gains, buoyed by strength in technology shares, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.25%) is also experiencing a significant increase. The KOSPI (+0.19%) has given up most of its initial gains after having traded +1.56% higher at the outset. Elsewhere, Chinese shares are largely flat. S&P 500 (+0.53%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.75%) futures are continuing Friday's momentum while Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, meaning that US Treasuries haven't traded yet. European stock futures are around three quarters of a percent higher.

Recapping last week now and markets saw high volatility and weakness, driven especially by concerns about AI valuations, but initially selling-off on fears the Fed wouldn’t have enough data to cut in December. Ironically, that sell-off promoted an increase in the probability of a cut in just over two weeks. The S&P 500 declined -1.95% despite a +0.98% rally on Friday and the NASDAQ was down -2.74% (+0.88% Friday). The AI weakness also pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -5.94% lower (+0.86% Friday). Nvidia saw huge swings, down -5.94% even as it revealed strong earnings and revenue guidance in its earnings on Wednesday night. It fell -0.97% on Friday despite a brief rally on news that the Trump administration was considering allowing it to sell H200 chips to China. Alphabet was the main exception from the tech weakness, rallying +8.41% (+3.53% Friday) following news that Berkshire Hathaway took a stake in the company and on positive reviews of its new Gemini-3 AI model. The meant Alphabet overtook Microsoft (-7.46% on the week) as the world’s third most valuable company. Amazon was down -5.97% (+1.63% Friday) in a week they issued a $15bn bond, the first in three years. So, lots of volatility within the Mag-7 (-1.94% on the week; +0.81% Friday). Oracle’s equity fell -5.66% on Friday in a rallying market, while its 5yr CDS widened +11bps to 119bps. The VIX index saw its highest weekly close since late April at 23.43 despite a -2.99pt decline on Friday (+3.60pts on the week).  

Given the turmoil in equities, investors are now pricing a stronger chance of Fed rate cuts, with a December cut 63% priced, having been at 43% the week before. Rate cut pricing ticked up on Friday after NY Fed President Williams said he saw room for another cut “in the near term”. Earlier in the week, the probability went as low as 27%, following the BLS announcement that there wouldn't be an October payrolls report, and that the November report would be delayed to December 16, after the FOMC decision. Treasuries rallied amid the risk-off mood, with the 2yr yield falling -9.8bps to 3.51% (-2.4bps Friday) and the 10yr yield down -8.4bps to 4.06% (-2.0bps Friday). In credit, US IG spreads widened +3bps, with the HY spreads +10bps higher as well.   

Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-2.21%) saw its biggest decline in 16 weeks, including a -0.33% fall on Friday following a softer euro area manufacturing PMI print (49.7 vs 50.1 expected). The DAX (-3.29% on the week, -0.80% Friday) led this decline, while the FTSE 100 (-1.64% on the week, +0.13% Friday) saw a relative outperformance despite the November composite PMI falling to 50.5 (vs. 51.8 expected), driven by a downside surprise in services. European yields were mostly lower, with the 10yr bunds down -1.7bps and BTPs down -1.4bps, while OATs were up +1.4bps. Gilt yields were also -2.8bps lower with investors waiting for the Autumn budget later this week. European credit spreads (+2bps for IG, +9bps for HY) saw similar moves as in the US. 

The negative mood was also affected by a sell-off in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin falling -10.37% to its lowest level since late April. The market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies now stands at just under $3trn, down from a high of $4.4trn in October. Meanwhile, oil prices fell as traders dialled down the risks to Russian oil supply following news of the 28-point peace plan proposed by the US. Brent crude finished the week -2.84% lower to $62.56/bbl (-1.29% Friday).

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 08:37

College-Educated Oversupply Crisis Worsens 

The widening mismatch between an oversupply of college-educated workers and a deepening shortage of talent for non-degree, hands-on jobs has grown even more pronounced.

Bloomberg reports that the latest delayed BLS data shows a sharp deterioration in white-collar jobs, especially those holding four-year degrees, now making up a record 25% of all unemployed - or about 1.9 million folks, the highest level since 1992.

The unemployment rate for bachelor’s degree holders climbed to 2.8% in September, while joblessness for other education groups remained relatively the same. Young degree-holders are getting squeezed the most: unemployment for ages 20 to 24 jumped to 9.2%, an increase rarely seen outside recessions. 

The jobs data builds on our note last week, citing Goldman analysts led by Evan Tylenda, who spoke with labor demographer Ron Hetrick.

Their discussion highlighted an alarming shift in the labor market: an oversupply of college graduates and a shortage of non-college-degree technical workers.

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the full note in the usual spot. It offers key understandings of the shifting labor market ahead of the 2030s. 

Palantir CEO Alex Karp recently had an epic quote about this emerging labor market mess :

The average Ivy League grad voting for this mayor is annoyed their education is not that valuable, and that the person who knows how to drill for oil has a more valuable profession.

I think that annoys the f*ck out of these people. 

Palantir CEO Alex Karp on Zohran Mamdani and NYC:

“We’re about to probably have a complete disaster. I was born in New York.

“If you asked, ‘do these things actually work?’ Everyone’s like, ‘of course I’m not going to vote for that.’ Instead they ask, ‘does it work in theory?’ pic.twitter.com/yvA6nn5Aeu

— Jawwwn (@jawwwn_) November 4, 2025

The education industrial complex has spent more time transforming kids into Marxist activists than preparing them for future labor market shifts. Now, these purple-haired degree holders are entering a shrinking labor market, and companies view these kids as giant liabilities.

It’s time for young people to consider avoiding overpriced college. Perhaps time to learn an actual skill that makes you valuable, one that lets you remain productive before automation and AI sweep the labor market, such as building data centers or working on natural gas turbines. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 05:45

FAA Prepared For Busiest Thanksgiving Travel In 15 Years

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is preparing for the busiest Thanksgiving holiday travel period in 15 years.

More than 360,000 flights are scheduled between Monday, Nov. 24, and Tuesday, Dec. 2, delivering people to and from their destinations across the country. Flights are set to peak on Nov. 25, with more than 52,000 flights alone, and Nov. 26 is expected to be nearly as busy, with more than 50,000 flights scheduled.

Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 27, is expected to see the lowest air traffic that week, with the administration forecasting more than 25,500 flights. Last week, the FAA ended its mandatory flight reductions and now stands ready to oversee the travel spike.

“Thanks to the dedication of our air traffic controllers and every FAA employee, we are ready for the holiday rush and take pride in helping travelers reach their friends and families during this important time of year,” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said.

“I am deeply grateful to our entire FAA team. Even through a period of record-high traffic, their unwavering commitment keeps the system running safely.”

One of the airports that faced those reductions, Tampa International Airport (TPA) in Florida, released its own statement ahead of the holiday rush to assure travelers that it would be fully staffed.

“TPA is ready to fully handle the estimated 924,000-plus passengers projected to pass through the Airport over the Thanksgiving holiday travel period from November 20 to December 1,” the airport said in its statement.

“TPA’s operations team anticipates that Sunday, November 30, will be the busiest day, with an estimated 86,278 passengers expected to pass through the airport.”

If delays are experienced, it is unlikely to be due to the volume of flights, according to the FAA.

As of Nov. 10, the administration said that approximately 13.5 percent of total delay time was due to volume, while more than 62 percent was due to weather.

And weather could become an issue for several airports across the country and across the travel period.

“A frontal system passing from the Great Lakes to the interior Northeast Sunday into Monday will bring a mix of rain and snow showers,” the Weather Prediction Center said on Nov. 22.

“Thunderstorms will continue today for south Texas in [the] vicinity of a stationary frontal boundary.”

The Dallas-Fort Worth area is anticipating severe rainfall on Nov. 24, with rainfall totals possibly reaching up to four inches. However, on Thanksgiving Day, the weather is expected to be sunny and dry, with a high of 60 degrees Fahrenheit.

Heavy rains will also be felt across Texas and the Mississippi River, extending to Kansas City, Missouri.

“Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Monday into Tuesday as another disturbance and associated cold front pushes through Southeast TX,” the National Weather Service’s Houston office stated.

“Some storms will have the potential to become strong to severe. In addition, locally heavy rain will be possible. The greatest risk of strong to severe storms will be generally north of I-10. Instability will be a limiting factor though.”

Slow-moving showers will also affect the greater Atlanta area and the southeast.

“Slow-moving showers push into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday with beneficial rainfall expected, especially over north Georgia,” the National Weather Service’s Atlanta/Peachtree City Office said.

Out west, Denver could also be affected as the National Weather Service reports a cold front moving across its part of the Rocky Mountains on Nov. 24 and Nov. 25, bringing possible snow showers. However, as of Nov. 22, forecasted travel impacts remain minimal.

The American Automobile Association (AAA) projected that approximately 6 million people will travel by air for Thanksgiving this year, a 2 million year-over-year increase. But this represents only a fraction of total travelers during this holiday period.

“At least 73 million people will travel by car, that’s nearly 90 percent of Thanksgiving travelers, and an additional 1.3 million people on the road compared to last Thanksgiving,” AAA said on its website.

“That number could end up being higher if some air travelers decide to drive instead of fly following recent flight cancellations.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 05:00

Luxembourgers Are The World's Biggest Coffee Drinkers

The global coffee market continues to grow, but consumption patterns vary widely across countries. Northern European nations dominate the upper tiers, driven by a long-standing café culture and high per-capita spending. Meanwhile, large emerging markets drink far less per person despite being major producers.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks 65 countries by their daily coffee consumption per capita in 2025, showing how drinking habits differ around the world. The table below also includes data on lifetime coffee consumption, and average cup prices.

The data for this ranking comes from Cafely.

Europe Continues to Dominate Global Coffee Consumption

Northern Europe remains the global center of coffee drinking. Luxembourg leads the world with 5.31 cups per day per person—far ahead of larger economies.

Luxembourg’s per-capita figure is boosted by its huge commuter workforce. Nearly half of all workers (47%) live outside the country, and their daily coffee consumption is counted in Luxembourg’s totals.

Finland and Sweden, long known for their strong coffee cultures, follow closely behind. All of the top 10 countries are European, reflecting both historical preferences and high purchasing power.

RankCountryDaily coffee
consumption
per Capita (Cups)Lifetime
Consumption (Cups)Price
per cupLifetime spending 1Luxembourg5.31118,227$3.60$425,618 2Finland3.7783,939$4.00$335,756 3Sweden2.5958,612$3.70$216,863 4Norway2.5758,159$4.40$255,900 5Austria2.0345,198$3.30$149,153 6Denmark2.0444,676$5.40$241,250 7Switzerland1.8742,318$5.00$211,591 8Netherlands1.7939,854$3.10$123,548 9Greece1.7137,449$3.10$116,092 10Germany1.6135,259$3.10$109,303 11Canada1.5734,956$3.50$122,346 12Belgium1.5734,383$3.10$106,587 13France1.4832,952$3.10$102,152 14Slovenia1.4932,631$1.70$55,473 15Italy1.4432,587$1.54$50,184 16Lebanon1.631,536$3.63$114,476 18Brazil1.5831,142$1.55$48,270 17Cyprus1.4231,098$3.17$98,581 19Portugal1.4130,879$1.66$51,259 20Croatia1.4730,583$1.72$52,603 21Estonia1.4429,959$3.05$91,376 22Lithuania1.4328,707$2.72$78,084 23Czech Republic1.2526,463$2.46$65,098 24United States1.2225,827$4.69$121,131 24Australia1.1425,798$3.24$83,586 26Ireland1.1325,159$3.47$87,303 27Spain1.0623,988$1.92$46,057 28Costa Rica1.0522,229$2.55$56,683 29Japan0.9321,385$3.10$66,295 30Poland0.9519,765$2.48$49,017 31Latvia0.9719,119$2.78$53,150 32Bulgaria0.9818,243$1.57$28,641 33South Korea0.7416,746$3.59$60,119 34Romania0.8616,637$2.01$33,440 35Malta0.6715,162$2.45$37,147 36Algeria0.7214,454$0.84$12,141 37El Salvador0.7113,217$2.65$35,024 38Hungary0.6412,848$1.57$20,171 39Venezuela0.6912,844$1.59$20,423 40Slovakia0.6112,468$2.15$26,807 41Colombia0.612,264$1.14$13,981 42Ukraine0.5810,797$1.13$12,200 43Saudi Arabia0.5210,629$3.82$40,602 44Taiwan0.469,906$2.79$27,638 45Dominican Republic0.529,870$2.11$20,825 46Russia0.59,673$2.91$28,147 47Honduras0.519,494$1.80$17,089 48Vietnam0.428,125$1.99$16,169 49Philippines0.437,848$2.47$19,383 50Ethiopia0.467,556$0.78$5,893 51Haiti0.467,220$2.74$19,782 52Turkey0.316,450$1.54$9,932 53Thailand0.36,351$1.81$11,495 54Morocco0.315,997$1.62$9,715 55Guatemala0.345,957$2.37$14,118 56Mexico0.295,610$2.55$14,306 57Indonesia0.274,829$2.06$9,948 58Argentina0.214,292$1.76$7,555 59Sudan0.233,694$1.80$6,649 60Madagascar0.193,051$1.19$3,631 61Egypt0.173,040$1.99$6,050 62South Africa0.172,544$1.72$4,376 63Peru0.112,208$2.50$5,521 64Uganda0.081,226$2.86$3,508 65India0.02365$1.83$668 Large Economies Consume Less Coffee Per Person

Despite being major consumers in absolute terms, large countries such as the United States, Japan, and Brazil rank much lower on a per-person basis.

The United States averages 1.22 cups per day, placing it 24th overall. Japan, with its thriving café scene and canned-coffee culture, averages just under one cup per day. Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer, lands mid-pack at 18th with 1.58 cups per day.

Some Countries Barely Drink Coffee at All

At the bottom of the ranking are countries where tea or other beverages dominate daily habits. India records the lowest consumption at just 0.02 cups per day—roughly one cup every seven weeks. Several African and South Asian countries also rank low, typically drinking less than 0.3 cups daily.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Which Countries Drink the Most Wine? on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 04:15

UK Greenlights First Rolls-Royce SMR Project Despite US Pushback

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• UK selects Rolls-Royce as preferred SMR developer and launches its first project at Wylfa, aiming for mid-2030s power generation.

• The decision triggers criticism from the Trump administration, which pushed for U.S. firm Westinghouse to lead the project.

• Despite diplomatic friction, the UK says SMRs will anchor a domestic nuclear revival and leave room for future collaboration with U.S. developers.

After selecting Rolls-Royce as the United Kingdom’s preferred bidder to build the country’s first small modular reactors (SMRs), the government has confirmed the start of project development in Wales. The development of SMR technology is expected to help the U.K. expand its nuclear power capacity, as well as become a competitive SMR power. However, the United States Trump administration, which recently signed an agreement with the U.K. for SMR development, does not support the choice of a British company for the development of the technology. 

In June, the U.K. government announced that Rolls-Royce SMR had been selected as the preferred bidder to partner with Great British Energy – Nuclear (GBE-N) to develop SMRs, subject to final government approvals and contract signature. The government pledged almost $3.3 billion for the SMR programme, expecting to support the creation of 3,000 new skilled jobs and power the equivalent of roughly 3 million homes with clean, domestic energy. 

The SMR project marks a major shift in the U.K.’s approach to nuclear energy, as it develops the first two major conventional nuclear plants in several decades and invests in new nuclear technologies. SMRs are smaller and faster to build than conventional nuclear reactors, and their modular nature means that more capacity can be added as required. 

In November, the government announced plans to develop a first-of-its-kind nuclear power station on the Welsh island of Anglesey. The plant at Wylfa will be home to three SMRs, although it will have space for up to eight, with works expected to commence in 2026 and first power generation in the mid-2030s.

The existing nuclear plant at Wylfa was powered down in 2015, and previous plans for a large-scale replacement were scrapped in 2021. The new project is expected to bring a much-needed boost to Anglesey’s economy, as well as provide jobs for several decades. Prime Minister Kier Starmer said, “Britain was once a world leader in nuclear power, but years of neglect and inertia have meant places like Anglesey have been let down and left behind. Today, that changes."

The First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, supports the project and has been “pressing the case at every opportunity for Wylfa's incredible benefits”. Meanwhile, the U.K. energy minister, Ed Miliband, said that Britain is in the race for new reactors. Miliband said in a radio interview that the aim is to “work with local colleges to make sure that there are local skills providers, skills training opportunities, so local people get these jobs”.

The SMRs will be built in a modular format in factories before being shipped to site to be assembled. However, several challenges remain, including getting regulatory approval, building the SMR factories, and training the workforce to operate the sites. Rolls-Royce will build on its experience developing reactors for Britain’s nuclear submarines to develop the SMRs. Since promoting its SMR business, the British firm has attracted several investors, including the UAE’s sovereign wealth fund – the Qatar Investment Authority, the American utility Constellation, and CEZ, the Czech Republic’s power company.

While the new project offers high hopes for the development of the U.K.’s nuclear energy industry, U.S. President Trump is less than happy with Prime Minister Starmer’s selection of Rolls-Royce for the job. The U.S. was reportedly hoping that the U.K. government would choose American Westinghouse Electric Company to develop a conventional nuclear plant at Wylfa.

Before the Anglesey project was announced, the U.S. ambassador Warren Stephens published a statement saying that Britain should choose “a different path” in Wales. “We are extremely disappointed by this decision, not least because there are cheaper, faster and already-approved options to provide clean, safe energy at this same location,” Stephens stated. The ambassador’s response follows the signing of a nuclear partnership between the U.K. and the U.S. in September, with a potential value of $100 billion.

However, a source close to the U.K. government said, “This is the right choice for Britain. This is our flagship SMR programme, producing homegrown clean power with a British company, and we have chosen the best site for it.”

Nevertheless, the U.K. government said that developing SMRs at Wylfa “doesn’t close the door" to a U.S. manufacturer working on a future project. GBE-N is also assessing different sites in the U.K. for the potential development of another large-scale nuclear power plant, like Hinkley Point in Somerset and Sizewell C in Suffolk, which are currently being developed and are expected to power around six million homes once complete.

Despite the agreement for greater cooperation between the U.K. and the U.S. on nuclear power, the U.K. government has chosen a British company to develop its first SMR project, showing its support for the development of domestic nuclear technologies. The project is expected to make the U.K. highly competitive in the field of SMR reactor development over the coming decade, as well as diversify the country’s nuclear power industry. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 03:30

G20 In South Africa Ends With A Whimper After Trump Snubs Event

South Africa is back in the news yet again, and facing embarrassment yet again.  South Africa's far-left government was hoping that the G20 Summit held this week in Johannesburg would elevate the country's global position and garner them international attention (and funding).  It is the first time in history that the G20 has been held in South Africa.    

However, the Trump Administration has made it clear that the South African event is a nothing-burger and the real G20 will be held in the US (in Florida) in 2026.  The meeting was not only snubbed by Trump; China, Russia, Argentina, Mexico and Indonesia did not send representatives either, likely because the summit had no momentum without US participation. 

Confusion arose when SA President Cyril Ramaphosa spread rumors that the US was actually participating in the talks, leading the media to suggest Trump had flip-flopped. 

When asked about the alleged shift, Press Secretary Karoline Levit accused Ramaphosa of 'running his mouth' about the US and spreading misinformation.  No such change had occurred and the US did not attend the talks.  This is yet another example of Ramaphosa making claims which end up being easily debunked.

A primary contention over the event was the highlighting of the global warming and carbon taxation agenda, which Trump has repeatedly called out as a fraud.  For countries like South Africa, however, the climate change issue has the potential to become highly lucrative.

The UN, the WEF and many other globalist institutions have called for carbon taxation as a form of wealth redistribution from wealthy nations to third world nations.  Carbon taxes are sometimes referred to as "climate reparations" that could greatly enrich countries with less substantial industry (carbon footprint).  The carbon scheme is in fact nothing more than another cash grab by global elites, using the "plight" of the third world and unfounded fears of climate oblivion as justifications for centralized carbon taxation and worldwide socialism.

South Africa is facing deepening economic decline, with a 32% unemployment rate and imploding infrastructure (due to lack of proper maintenance over the span of decades), the country was already in dire straits when Trump entered office. 

Trump made South Africa's anti-white policies (145 race based laws that undermine the rights of white citizens) and land confiscation laws international news. He then crushed President Cyril Ramaphosa on live TV with videos of communist political groups calling for the mass murder of white farmers (Boers) after Ramaphosa denied such a problem existed. 

The end of the insidious USAID organization and cuts to foreign funding have further eroded SA's economy.  Now, their first ever G20 event is opening with a whimper of empty resolutions and missing world leaders. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 02:45

Why'd Kazakhstan Join The Abraham Accords When It Already Recognizes Israel?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Many observers were surprised after Kazakhstan joined the Abraham Accords during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s trip to DC to attend the latest C5+1 Summit since it’s already recognized Israel since 1992.

The Presidential and Foreign Ministry websites shed more light on this decision.

The first wrote that “By joining the Abraham Accords, Kazakhstan seeks to contribute to overcoming confrontation, promoting dialogue, and supporting international law based on the principles of the UN Charter.”

It added that “The decision of Kazakhstan does not affect the country’s bilateral commitments with any state and represents a natural continuation and manifestation of its multilateral diplomacy aimed at promoting peace and security.”

The second echoed this message: “This important decision was made solely in the interests of Kazakhstan and is fully consistent with the nature of republic’s balanced, constructive, and peaceful foreign policy.”

Their statement then concluded as follows: “Joining the Abraham Accords will contribute to strengthening our country’s cooperation with all interested states and, therefore, is fully in line with Kazakhstan’s strategic goals. Kazakhstan will continue to firmly advocate for a just, comprehensive, and sustainable settlement of the Middle East conflict based on international law, relevant UN resolutions, and the principle of ‘two states for two peoples.’”

Accordingly, the official explanation is that this purely symbolic move was meant to signal support for a “two-state solution” and bolster Kazakhstan’s multi-alignment policy, but there’s actually more to it. This was indisputably intended to appeal to Trump, thus raising Tokayev’s profile in his eyes, and coincided with the raft of deals that they agreed to. This importantly includes a MoU on critical minerals that was assessed here as putting pressure, unintended by Kazakhstan but deliberate by the US, on Russia.

The above preceded Tokayev’s trip to Moscow to meet with Putin, the purpose of which was to reassure Russia that Kazakhstan isn’t siding with the US against it, but it’s now clear that Kazakhstan is more actively relying on the US for balancing Russia. It’s this trend, which isn’t new but is now taking on a qualitatively different form due to how the new TRIPP Corridor is expected to intensify US-Kazakh ties and Tokayev doing a personal favor for Trump by joining the Abraham Accords, that’s most newsworthy.

It was earlier warned that “The West Is Posing New Challenges To Russia Along Its Entire Southern Periphery”, which Russia is aware of as proven by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent remarks to this effect, and that “A US Think Tank Considers Kazakhstan To Be A Key Player For Containing Russia”. Nevertheless, Kazakhstan is still a member of the Russian-led CSTO military bloc and the EAEU economic one, but it’s understandable if Putin might soon begin to wonder about Tokayev’s long-term intentions.

Azerbaijan just announced that its armed forces now conform with NATO standards, and if Kazakhstan one day tries to follow suit, then Russia’s threat assessment would spike. Tokayev hasn’t signaled any such plans, but by doing a personal favor for Trump by joining the Abraham Accords, he likely expects him and the US to have his back if he ever decides to do so and this leads to a crisis with Russia. Therein lies the real significance of what he just did, which lends credence to concerns about his intentions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/24/2025 - 02:00

Taiwan Minister Says 'Consensus' Reached With US To Shield Chips From Tariffs

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Taiwanese National Science and Technology Council Minister Wu Cheng-wen said that Taiwan and the United States have reached a “consensus” to keep tariffs off Taipei’s semiconductor industry.

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. headquarters in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on Oct. 20, 2021. AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying, File

In a Financial Times interview published on Nov. 20, Wu said that Taiwan will support the United States in building its chip industry, and in return, the United States will offer tariff relief for the island’s semiconductor sector.

“Of course, there’s the recipes of how to make the chips, but it’s also about the science park management, attracting companies, integrating academic research with industry,” Wu told the news outlet. “No other country has done what we have done.”

Wu did not provide details about the consensus that was reached.

Taiwanese Economic Minister Kung Ming-hsin told reporters on Nov. 22 that Taiwan has not finalized any trade agreement with the United States yet, but he noted that Taiwan’s negotiators are “working hard on it,” local media reported.

Taiwan hopes to secure a deal with the Trump administration that would ease the current 20 percent U.S. tariffs on its exports. U.S. President Donald Trump in August threatened tariffs of up to 300 percent on chip imports.

Wu said that Washington is unlikely to impose such high tariffs on Taiwan’s semiconductors because the administration understands that “punishing Taiwan is not in their interests.”

Taiwan’s dominant role in global chip manufacturing, led by chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., has been labeled as a deterrent against the Chinese regime’s military aggression, a concept known as the “silicon shield.”

Wu said in the interview that Taiwan was looking to create a “second silicon shield” in areas such as drones, robotics, and medical technology to diversify its strategic assets beyond chips.

However, Wu noted that Taiwan intends to keep its cutting-edge research and development within the island, citing potential security concerns if the sector were relocated overseas.

“If we move our [research and development] overseas, it’ll be dangerous for us,” he said. “New weapons and defense systems rely on advanced chips.”

The White House has not publicly commented on Wu’s remarks.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told NewsNation on Sept. 27 that the two sides have discussed producing equal shares of the semiconductor chips required to meet U.S. demand.

Washington wants Taiwan to move half of its semiconductor production to the United States, Lutnick said. Ultimately, the goal is for the United States to capture at least 40 percent of the semiconductor market, which would require $500 billion in domestic investment, he said.

“That has been the conversation we had with Taiwan, [telling them] that ‘you have to understand it’s vital for you to have us produce 50 percent,’” he said.

In response to Lutnick’s comments, the Office of Trade Negotiations of Taiwan’s Executive Yuan, the highest administrative organ in Taiwan, said that it would exercise prudence in trade negotiations with the United States, according to Taiwanese media outlets.

Frank Fang contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 23:55

Hamas Threatens 'Ceasefire Is Over' Amid Rising Israeli Airstrikes

Hamas is threatening the collapse the US-backed ceasefire after a series of Israeli airstrikes and a rising death toll in Gaza over much of the past week. However, Israel's military in fresh Sunday statements has said it is Hamas terrorists repeatedly violating the truce.

"The agreement is over and [Hamas] is ready to fight," Hamas sources have been cited in regional outlets as saying. Hamas has reportedly communicated its stance to US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, that it is ready to end the ceasefire.

Via Reuters

But Israeli media in follow-up stated, "Hamas later that evening stated that Israeli reports that it had told Witkoff that the ceasefire was over were not true. Senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzook also confirmed to the Qatari outlet Al Jazeera Mubasher that the terror group had not ended the ceasefire."

The ceasefire is clearly as fragile as it has ever been since taking effect on October 10:

An American source told Walla that "Hamas has not given up yet, but has made it clear that it will not be able to accept any more Israeli attacks. Gaza will not be Lebanon for them, and I hope we can contain the situation." —Jerusalem Post

Israel's military has accused terrorists of breaching the so-called Yellow Line which demarcates a truce 'do not cross' zone; but meanwhile Hamas has asserted Israeli occupation is committing a flagrant breach by steadily moving the 'Yellow Line' westward.

Gaza officials have said that the significant and rising death toll since the ceasefire took effect shows it is Israel doing the violating:

Israel has violated the United States-brokered Gaza ceasefire at least 497 times in 44 days, killing hundreds of Palestinians since the ceasefire came into effect on 10 October, according to the Gaza Government Media Office.

Some 342 civilians have been killed in the attacks, with children, women and the elderly accounting for the majority of the victims.

But Israeli officials and media have rejected this narrative, and have instead said that "On Saturday, a Palestinian gunman crossed the ceasefire line and opened fire on Israeli troops in Gaza’s south, leading to IDF strikes in the Strip."

Gaza right now, ceasefire is a lie! #GazaUnderAttack pic.twitter.com/DWftLhe1a9

— Ahmed El-Madhoun (@madhoun95) November 22, 2025

Saturday alone saw some 24 Palestinians killed in a series of renewed Israeli airstrikes across the Strip. Washington has urged restraint and for both sides to observe the ceasefire, but Trump officials have also conceded that Israel has the right to act in specific instances where its troops in Gaza come under attack.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 22:45

Geoengineering Is No Longer Just A Theory

Authored by Mollie Engelhart via The Epoch Times,

Most people check the weather the way they check traffic or the time. Rain might mean rearranging plans or canceling a child’s T-ball game. A cold snap might simply mean pulling out a sweater or your favorite tweed jacket. Weather, for most people, is an inconvenience or a conversation starter. Because when you need water, you turn on a faucet. When you’re cold or hot, you adjust the thermostat. Weather becomes background noise rather than a force that shapes survival.

For farmers, weather is everything.

We don’t just look at the forecast. We live by it. We watch humidity, wind patterns, soil temperature, and cloud formation with the kind of attention most people reserve for financial markets or national security briefings. A few degrees of difference can determine whether a crop thrives or dies. We wait for moisture the way some people wait for medical news. Because one wrong call can erase months of work.

Earlier this year, the temperatures had been in the high 90s for weeks. Summer seemed to arrive early, and the weather service confidently projected warm, stable nights in the 50s. Based on that forecast, we continued preparing the greenhouses and tending the spring crops. Everything looked promising.

Then one Monday morning in late April, we woke up to ice. Not frost. Ice.

Our greenhouses weren’t sealed, because the forecast told us we were safe. The propane heaters inside are set to turn on automatically at 38 degrees, and they ran full force all night. By sunrise, we had burned through $5,000 in propane, and everything was still dead. Every spring tomato. Every cucumber. Tender annuals. Guavas, lemons, and young tropicals. Outside the greenhouse, brand-new kale and broccoli seedlings that had finally established themselves were frozen limp and useless.

There was no warning. Just loss.

That is what it means when a farmer mentions the weather. He isn’t complaining. He is praying that a single cold snap, drought, hailstorm, or unpredictable shift doesn’t take away his livelihood. We do everything we can, but the weather still decides what survives.

Which is why the cultural conversation around climate and weather is so interesting. We’ve been quick for years to talk about climate change. And I’ve always said: If we’re going to talk about climate change, we also have to talk about geoengineering. Because at this stage, it’s hard to know where one ends and the other begins. It’s hard to know whether the shifts we’re experiencing are natural, human-caused, manipulated, or some combination of all three. It’s even fair to ask whether climate change exists in the exact framework we’ve been presented—or whether geoengineering exists in the exact framework we’ve been told—or whether the lines have been blurred without transparency.

This was once considered wild conspiracy, the kind of thing people joked about with tinfoil hat references. Yet now it’s discussed openly. Amazon Prime hosts documentaries about it. Universities conduct research on it. Weather modification companies operate publicly in multiple states. Government agencies acknowledge it.

Today here in Kerr County, after heavy flooding, a CEO of a weather modification company made a point to assure the public that his cloud seeding was not responsible for the rainfall. I’m not claiming it was. But when someone feels compelled to explain themselves for something everyone swore didn’t exist 10 years ago, the conversation has already changed.

And that leads to a reasonable and necessary question:

What is the ripple effect?

Weather is a system. Everything in nature is interconnected. If you add rain here, does that mean less rain somewhere else? If you alter cloud structure or reflect sunlight, does that shift wind patterns, soil moisture, or storm behavior? If we inject particles into the atmosphere to cool temperatures globally, what happens to regional rainfall, food systems, ecosystems, and planting zones?

Farmers think this way because we live in the reality of consequences. We don’t work in theory. We work in soil, water, frost, and risk. Every decision has an outcome.

So if geoengineering and cloud seeding are now part of public policy, private industry, and scientific pursuit, then the people whose lives depend most on natural systems deserve transparency. We deserve honesty. We deserve oversight. And we deserve a voice before—not after—changes are made.

We can choose what we eat and what we put on our bodies. But we cannot choose what falls from the sky.

Weather is not a casual headline or a political slogan. It’s the difference between feeding our community or losing everything. If climate change is real in the way we’ve been told, then geoengineering absolutely matters. If geoengineering is now a reality, then the climate narrative cannot be discussed without it.

The sky is not a laboratory. It is a life support system.

And the question that remains is not whether these experiments are helpful, harmful, necessary, or misguided.

The real question is much simpler.

Did the people beneath the sky ever consent?

Because I don’t remember being asked. And I doubt most people do.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 21:00

MTA Hunts For $675 Million Worth Of Loose Change In Subway Seat Cushions

Because the universe is nothing if not predictable, we’re back with yet another episode of “New York’s transit agency attempts first grade math.”

The MTA has once again found itself rummaging through the sofa cushions of the nation’s largest transit network, searching for spare millions, according to Bloomberg. If it feels like we’re constantly writing about their chronic cash-management drama, that’s because… we are. 

New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority is now targeting $675 million in additional cuts over the next four years, aiming to trim anything that can reasonably be declared unnecessary. This comes from its latest budget presentation, which also outlines multiple cost-saving initiatives already in motion.

Bloomberg writes that the agency is finally phasing out the yellow MetroCard, swapping in OMNY as the full-time fare system to eliminate a slew of legacy maintenance costs. It’s also replacing older commuter-rail train cars and deploying artificial intelligence to streamline supply needs. Those efforts come alongside hopes for a rebound in real estate tax revenue, expected to return to roughly $1.1 billion annually by 2027 after dropping to $719 million in 2024.

All this belt-tightening is unfolding against the backdrop of fewer riders than before the pandemic, rising labor and supply expenses, and an estimated $1 billion annual hit from fare evasion. Despite that, MTA leadership insists they’re holding things together. As Janno Lieber said during a board meeting, “Figuring out how to do more with less has been the daily priority of the MTA these last few years. And I think we’re doing it pretty well.”

The agency estimates the combined cuts and revenue gains will narrow deficits by $418 million over the next three years. Officials now anticipate a $160 million gap in 2027 — under 1% of that year’s operating budget — before deficits climb again, to $243 million in 2028 and $306 million in 2029.

Much of the long-term savings are tied to the OMNY rollout, which eliminates MetroCard-related costs like machine upkeep and coin handling. New Long Island Rail Road cars should reduce maintenance needs, and improved scheduling technology is set to make train and crew deployment more efficient.

Still, even with additional state funding replacing expired federal pandemic aid, the MTA faces some significant uncertainties. Future budgets rely on fare and toll hikes planned for 2027 and 2029, assume $500 million in casino revenue that depends on yet-to-be-finalized developments, and hinge on a long-delayed $600 million FEMA reimbursement for pandemic cleaning expenses.

Lieber noted the holdup bluntly: “Money was promised under the first Trump administration to fund that, but it hasn’t yet come from Washington. That application’s been sitting for awhile.”

And so the MTA’s eternal budget circus continues...

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 21:00

US State Department Designates "DEI" As A Violation Of Human Rights

There is no way for a government to enforce Diversity, Equity and Inclusion policies without also discriminating against certain groups of people.  DEI, by its very nature, is anti-merit, anti-success and pro-privilege.  Of course, the groups that are most commonly discriminated against under DEI quotas are mostly white, male and straight.  The assumption being that white dudes are widely considered "fair game" by the rest of society. 

This dynamic creates a never-ending cycle of people clamoring for oppression status rather than personal integrity and accomplishment.  To win in life, you must figure out a way to catch the government's favor and attain that coveted prize; to rise to the top of the diversity totem pole.

This ideology has infected societies throughout most first world countries and even some developing nations.  Woke activism seems rampant in the US, but that's because DEI faces American opposition.  The color revolution is louder because their power is failing.  For the rest of the west, however, DEI in government is an absolute.  This is a problem because it requires Americans to reconsider which countries they view as "allies." 

The Trump Administration is adjusting to this ideological conflict quickly, and part of this change requires that the US starts openly calling out far-left governments for their destructive behaviors.

Countries enforcing DEI policies will now be at risk of the Trump Administration deeming them as human rights abusers, which upends the status quo when it comes to diplomatic relations.  The State Department is issuing new rules to all US embassies and consulates involved in compiling its annual report on global human rights violations.  

Other policies by foreign governments which US embassies will be told to categorize as human rights infringements include:     

Subsidising abortions, "as well as the total estimated number of annual abortions"     

Gender-transition surgery for children, defined by the state department as "operations involving chemical or surgical mutilation... to modify their sex."     

Facilitating mass or illegal migration "across a country's territory into other countries."     

Arrests or "official investigations or warnings for speech" - a reference to the Trump administration's opposition to internet safety laws adopted by some European countries to deter online "hate speech" (any speech which is critical of woke ideology no matter rational).  

A senior State Department official says, rather blatantly, that the new rules are "a tool to change the behavior of governments".  That is to say, the sooner foreign governments abandon woke cultism, the easier it will be for them to engage with the US in terms of relations and trade.  

State Department deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott said the new instructions are intended to stop "new destructive ideologies [that] have given safe harbor to human rights violations". 

"The Trump administration will not allow these human rights violations, such as the mutilation of children, laws that infringe on free speech, and racially discriminatory employment practices, to go unchecked." 

Leftist officials are calling the new policy an "attack on marginalized groups" and a "new low for Trump."  But once again, there is a substantial disconnect between what leftists see as a human right versus what normal people see as a human right.

The rights that the Trump Administration is referring to include the right to free speech, the right to secure borders, the right to cultural integrity without fear of engineered cultural replacement, the protection of children from manufactured consent, the right to equal opportunities (not equal outcomes), the right to life, etc.  Many of these ideals are taken for granted in the US as the norm, but the Biden Administration revealed how fragile such standards can be.

Leftists see human rights as contingent on identity.  In other words, some people have more rights than others depending on their genetic history and gender orientation.  Bureaucrats and progressive gatekeepers have conveniently made themselves the decision makers for which groups deserve the most rights.

They see speech rights as conditional; it all depends on the ethnicity and sexual identity of the person who is talking. 

They treat national borders and national identity as a social construct that needs to be torn down (if the country is rooted in western civilization).  They see the west as a global commons, an economic zone to be pillaged, not protected.

They view morality as relative, childhood as circumstantial and parental rights as an obstacle.  The grooming of children is a political imperative for leftist survival.  Questions of right and wrong never enter their minds.    

Millions of Americans have been united in solidarity against DEI and other mechanisms of progressive authoritarianism, turning back from the edge of utter disaster.  It makes little sense, then, to reward woke foreign governments with alliances and economic benefits after spending years struggling to defeat those same cancerous notions in the US.    

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 20:25

Restraint Technique That Supposedly Killed George Floyd Was Part Of Officer Training?

Derek Chauvin's defense attorneys have filed a new petition that challenges the 2021 murder conviction that sent Chauvin to prison over George Floyd's death. The petition includes over 50 former and current MPD officers who made sworn declarations that the technique Chauvin used to restrain George Floyd was part of the official training they received.

The 71-page petition was sent to Hennepin County District Court, where Attorney Greg Joseph stated that “this case simply never made sense."  The petition asserts that the case involves two key issues: intent and causation. Did the restraint of Floyd follow policies and procedures of the Minneapolis Police Department (MPD); and, did the restraint cause Floyd's death

In each case, the evidence is thin.  Yet, prosecutors achieved a conviction which many critics argue was pure theater - The human sacrifice of Derek Chauvin on the altar of race politics as a means to justify the mob violence of Black Lives Matter groups.  The protests (and the hysteria over the pandemic), paid for with hundreds of millions of dollars in NGO funds, brought chaos in the middle of the US election process and Democrats took full advantage of. 

The benefits behind throwing Chauvin to the wolves were many. 

During the trial, the Minneapolis Police Department denied that the specific restraint used by Derek Chauvin.  This denial came directly from MPD leadership.  If Chauvin was simply applying restraint techniques that he was trained by the MPD to use then he cannot be held accountable for any potential ill effects that the technique causes.   

The point is of course moot if the restraint had nothing to do with George Floyd's death. 

In seeking to vacate Chauvin’s conviction, or obtain a new trial, the petition argues that Chauvin “was deprived of his right to due process under the Fourteenth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and Article I of the Minnesota Constitution.” 

In speaking about the prosecution - and what he believes was the false testimony of MPD Inspector Katie Blackwell, Chief Medaria Arradondo, and others during Chauvin’s trial - Joseph told Alpha News, “you can only run from the truth for so long.” 

The petition argues that the methods used to examine video footage of George Floyd's restraint and arrest by "expert" witness for the prosecution are at odds with the methods used by the medical examiner, Dr. Andrew Baker, the only doctor who conducted an actual autopsy of Floyd.  It should be noted that Baker did in fact blame the subduing of Floyd as the ultimate cause of death, even though no damage was found to Floyd that would explain the death as a homicide. 

The official autopsy performed by the Hennepin County Medical Examiner found no physical trauma, fractures, or damage to George Floyd's trachea, larynx, hyoid bone, or surrounding throat structures. This included no bruising, lacerations, or other visible injuries in the neck area. The report explicitly noted "no life-threatening injuries identified" to the neck muscles, cartilage, bones, or soft tissues.

The autopsy, instead, said that Floyd died of severe heart disease that was "complicated" by the arrest.  Baker had told the jury "that he had certified deaths due to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease under similar conditions." 

Furthermore, Baker found 11 ng/mL of fentanyl in Floyd's toxicology; this is at least twice the amount required for a common deadly dose. He was described by witnesses as erratic and 'extremely impaired', throwing himself around the back of the police vehicle to escape arrest. Even if Floyd was a chronic user, fentanyl is known to exacerbate heart disease. 

It should be noted that no other officer in modern history has been convicted of murder charges for a death that took place during prone restraint.  At most, Chauvin should have faced involuntary manslaughter charges. 

In other words, Derek Chauvin was convicted for the second-degree murder of Floyd because he was in the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong suspect. He just happened to be arresting the man (who resisted arrest while he had a heart condition and poison in his veins) using a technique which MPD officers say was a part of Chauvin's training.  The jury was reportedly lied to, and apparently coached to ignore the obvious contradictions.

If this is the case, then it confirms everyone's suspicions:  The trial was a complete clown show - a political farce.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 19:15

Judge Blocks Trump Admin From Placing Conditions On Federal Disaster Funds

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge on Nov. 21 temporarily blocked the Trump administration from conditioning and withholding federal disaster preparedness funds that were allocated to local governments.

The city landscape of Los Angeles, on Oct. 9, 2025. Mike Blake /Reuters

U.S. District Judge William Orrick in the Northern District of California issued a preliminary injunction in response to a lawsuit filed by a coalition of 29 local governments, which alleged that the conditions tied to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and FEMA funds were unconstitutional.

The administration required local governments to end programs that promote diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and support federal immigration enforcement, or they could risk losing the funds, according to court documents.

In a 76-page ruling, Orrick said the plaintiffs were likely to prevail on their claims that the administration’s conditions were “ambiguous” and violated fundamental principles of constitutional law.

“In short, the EO [executive order] Condition, as it is currently written and applied to the DHS Conditions, is ambiguous. To find otherwise would defy the power of Congress to confer upon agencies the authority to grant funding in the first place,” the judge stated.

Orrick also noted that the plaintiffs’ interests in obtaining the funding to support critical infrastructure and emergency response programs for their communities far outweigh the administration’s interests.

“As indicated above, plaintiffs represent over thirty million individuals, and their DHS and FEMA grants provide funding to support these disaster and public safety initiatives. Many of the plaintiffs would be unable to otherwise fund these programs without grants,” the judge said.

Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, and San Diego were among the plaintiffs that filed suit on Sept. 30 to prevent the administration from imposing what they called “unlawful conditions” on more than $350 million in emergency and disaster preparedness funds.

In a joint statement, San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu welcomed the ruling, saying that withholding emergency and disaster preparedness funds would put public safety at risk.

“This funding means faster emergency response times, stronger regional coordination, and better protection for our residents during disasters and terrorist attacks,” Chiu stated. “We appreciate the Court ruled in our favor and blocked this unlawful overreach.”

Santa Clara County Counsel Tony LoPresti, part of the plaintiffs, praised the judge for recognizing that the administration’s “political agenda” should not influence the funding.

“As local governments, we take our responsibility seriously to protect all members of the community from the ravages of disaster, no matter their politics,” LoPresti said in the statement. “Governments shouldn’t have to pass a political litmus test to be able to care for their communities, especially in the face of a disaster.”

DHS and FEMA did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 15:10

House Votes To Denounce Socialism Despite Widespread Dem Opposition

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bipartisan resolution condemning socialism on Friday. The resolution, introduced about a month ago by Rep. Maria Salazar (R-FL), explicitly denounces socialism in all its forms and rejects the implementation of socialist policies in America. The bill cites "more than 100 million deaths at the hands of socialist governments." Republicans hailed the vote as an easy moral stand against a system that “crushes the human soul.”

While 86 Democrats broke ranks to support the condemnation, 98 Democrats opposed the resolution, which passed 285-98. 

In a 2023 vote, 109 Democrats voted to condemn while 86 voted against it and 14 Democrats voted present. 

This vote came hours before New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, arrived in Washington, D.C., to meet with President Donald Trump for the first time. 

Among the 86 Democrats who supported the measure were 14 congressmembers from New York and New Jersey, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who only endorsed Mamdani in the 11th hour of the mayoral race.

Other New Yorkers who also supported the measure included Rep. Ritchie Torres of the Bronx, Reps. Greg Meeks and Grace Meng of Queens, and Reps. Laura Gillen and Tom Suozzi of Long Island. Suozzi made a special point of distancing himself from Mamdani during the mayoral campaign.

The measure was also supported by Republican Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, whose mother fled Cuba in 1959. She said her mother left Cuba to avoid what she called "the very things that our new socialist mayor in New York City says he wants." -CBS News

Democrats voting against the resolution included Rep. Maxine Waters of California, who denounced it as a distraction. "I wish we were here on the House floor this morning debating solutions that would reduce grocery bills, lower housing costs, end Trump's tariffs strangling American small businesses and manufacturers, solve the Republican health care crisis, or any legislation that allows Americans to afford [to] live through the catastrophic economic policies of Trump and the Republicans," she said, even though symbolic resolutions are common in the House.

Republicans weren’t buying it.

“100 Democrats just refused to condemn the horrors of socialism,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) said in a post on X. “There were no poison pills in this resolution. There are 100+ socialism sympathizers in the United States House of Representatives. Despicable.”

100 Democrats just refused to condemn the horrors of socialism.

There were no poison pills in this resolution.

There are 100+ socialism sympathizers in the United States House of Representatives.

Despicable. pic.twitter.com/v62W5ZcCtD

— Rep Andy Biggs (@RepAndyBiggsAZ) November 21, 2025

“If you needed proof that the left has gone completely insane, here it is,” Congressman Russell Fry (R-S.C) said. 

Of note, across five votes to denounce socialism since 2009, two were unanimous and three were not - including the aforementioned 2023 vote in which 86 Democrats voted against it.

Mamdani dismissed the resolution as irrelevant when asked about it in the Oval Office.

"I have to be honest with you, I focused very little on resolutions. Frankly, I've been focusing ... on the work at hand," he claimed. "I can tell you, I am someone who is a democratic socialist. I've been very open about that. And I know there might be differences about ideology, but the place of agreement is the work that needs to be done to make New York City affordable. That's what I look forward to."

While some may consider this to be nothing more than an ideological purity test, Mamdani's election - and the results of this vote, clearly indicate the direction of the pendulum.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 14:35

Is The pAIn Over? The End Of "Free" Money?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Last weekend we published Rotation, pAIn, or Smooth Sailing? following up on the prior week’s report: pAIn Ahead??? The pAIn did in fact continue with the Nasdaq 100 leading the way down over 3%. There was some further “rotation” as the S&P 500 dropped only 2% and our favorite way of expressing rotation, the S&P 500 Equal Weight, dropped “only” 0.9%.

Academy also had the pleasure of doing back-to-back segments to kick off Bloomberg Surveillance on Tuesday, covering a wide range of topics, with a particularly interesting discussion on Venezuela and Mexico (talking about frying an egg with a blowtorch, believe it or not, made sense in the context).

While many of the topics discussed over the last two weeks (Bitcoin, Retail Dip Buying, Volatility, Sentiment/Inflation, Jobs, and the Fed/Bond Yields) are relevant, we are going to start somewhere else with “Free” Money.

"Free" Money

Apologies to readers who will be flagged for opening a report with “Free” Money in the title (that and “guarantee” are probably two of the quickest ways to get flagged by compliance, without using profanity).

But I want to focus on “Free” Money for a moment because it is highly relevant.

What do we even mean by “Free” Money?

• When you announce that you are going to spend X and your stock price goes up by more than X, you have generated “free” money.

If you say you are going to spend $10 billion and your stock goes up $15 billion, it seems logical that your next move would be to announce even more spending.

There are two main areas where we saw this playing out:

• AI, Data Centers, Hyperscalers, etc. Commitment to building it out (the build it, they will come adage) is no longer being rewarded. Simply announcing more spending is not translating into increases in share price. Is the next step companies scaling back their spending? Will their stocks be rewarded if they do? Something we will think out loud about in a bit.
• Crypto and specifically Digital Asset Treasury Companies. When companies like MSTR were trading at a significant premium to their crypto holdings, it was relatively straightforward (still complex, but relatively straightforward) to raise X, buy X amount of crypto, and see your share price rise by more than X. That was incredibly supportive for not just the stocks, but also for the underlying crypto markets. Why would you stop creating “free” money, or more accurately, more shareholder wealth, based on spending, while you could? The answer is, you wouldn’t, but that has become more difficult as many DATCo’s (Digital Asset Treasury Companies) trade closer to their NAV than they have recently.
• Crypto mining companies fall somewhere in between, as to some degree they act like DATs (crypto is a large percentage of their balance sheet) and many have been adding AI/Data Center elements to their business model.

We will explore each of these in more detail, but it suffices to say that during the pAIn trade, the end of “free” money has been a major factor in the downturn, and could weigh on the economy and markets going forward.

"Passive" Investing and Digital Asset Treasury Companies

As any reader knows, we’ve been annoyed about the concept of “passive” investing, when passive is bigger than so-called “active” investing. With actual indexers and closet indexers, one of the keys to success is just to get into the indices. Even more important is to make it to the top of the market weightings and generate immense inflows into your stock.

Is “passive” really “passive” when, with the Nasdaq 100 for example, you are making a conscious decision to invest 55% of every dollar in QQQ that is focused on 11 companies? When passive flows are so large, they can distort valuations, etc.

But what does this have to do with DATs? That is a great question.

The most interesting and successful DATs have (and will continue) to win investors over because they provide some combination of the following:

• Access to something difficult to get access to. That has become less relevant in the U.S. when large public companies like COIN make it easier to get that access. The growth in crypto-focused ETFs has also made this less valuable domestically, but that is not true internationally. So, access remains a compelling part of the DAT space.
• Returns otherwise not available. With crypto-like SOL and ETH, there is money made from simply “staking” the coins. With some recent legislative changes, it will be easier for ETFs to potentially offer this, but it is still an obvious and easy value for DATs to create.
• Truly unique return profiles, based on skills or technology not readily available to investors. This is ultimately the “sweet” spot of DATs. Companies that are able to use tools to generate risk profiles that are truly unique. Whether it is from capital structure, flexibility to move investments around, or being part of shaping the crypto landscape (from a technology standpoint), it allow investors access to something they could not achieve on their own.

Clearly of the “reasons” listed, the last one is the broadest, most interesting, and the one I am excited about.

On October 10th, we saw crypto take what seemed like a “surprising” hit (certainly relative to stocks, which it had been tracking reasonably well with). This graph barely does it justice, as it doesn’t seem to like including weekend price action, which is important to defi, if not tradfi.

Bitcoin struggled all day on the 10th, sliding from $122k to $112k as U.S. stocks closed. Then, sometime after 4pm, it dropped to $105k. It seemed inexplicable and had recovered most of that by the time stocks opened on the following Monday, but something appeared “broken” and crypto (and DATs) have struggled since then.

I’m being told, and it actually makes sense to me, that this performance can be tied (at least partially) to the risk that MSCI may no longer include DATs in their equity indices (the decision is not expected until January 15th).

Using GROK, the best link I could come up with was this. You can get a list of what MSCI potentially considers DATs by clicking the link embedded in that page (search Digital Asset Companies).

We’ve included this chart because it highlights how positive these types of announcements can be. Bitcoin and MSTR traded extremely well as speculation grew that MSTR would be included in the Nasdaq 100. It was announced on December 13th, 2024 and went into effect on December 23rd, 2024.

The decision by MSTR does not impact Nasdaq 100 inclusion, nor should it impact potential inclusion in the S&P 500.

But let’s not underestimate the importance of being included in these indices.

According to Bloomberg, with the most recent filings, Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street are 3 of the top 5 holders of MSTR – fund groups that are known for their passive investments.

QQQ alone holds 5.56 million shares, or just under $1 billion of MSTR. These are not small numbers, and it demonstrates what is at stake based on the inclusion in various indices.

I expect there to be a lot of comments during MSCI’s comment period (which ends December 31st). Any decision that keeps some or all of the DATs in the indices would be “huge” for crypto since:

• It would not cause forced selling of the stocks based on inclusion.
• It would probably re-invigorate speculation that Standard and Poor’s could include some DATs in their major indices.

Anyways, I felt it was important to discuss this, because crypto is increasingly tied to equities.

Correlations and Volatility

Crypto has the potential to influence other markets in a variety of ways:

• Bitcoin had a market cap of almost $2.5 trillion as recently as early October, and it is now down to $1.85 trillion. Still hefty, but a loss of $650 billion may leave a mark on the global economy.
• At one time, it was easy (in fact necessary) to separate your crypto holdings from your other holdings. You could mentally (and physically) allocate say 10% to crypto and 90% to stocks. You could pull up your crypto holdings and see their performance, and pull up your equities and track them. With ETFs (and to some extent the DATs) you could “mentally” separate your allocations, but increasingly, when you pull up your equity holdings, it is all mixed in. I think, for many, it was easier to HODL when it was very separate. For many investors, especially in the ETF, they might find it more difficult to HODL (not sell) as they see it shrinking their entire portfolio, rather than just the portion of the portfolio that they had felt comfortable with. Might seem like a silly view on my part, but I think it is human nature.

• If I had the time and energy I would look at all Bitcoin ETFs and would try to account for the fact that GBTC, as a trust, had a huge impact on the flows in and around ETFs, once it converted to ETF form. But for now, this seems reasonable to me.
• From IBIT’s inception, on January 10th, 2024 (it seems longer than that), it reached 760 million shares by November 2024. It got to over 1.4 billion shares outstanding by April 2024. It peaked at over 1.4 billion shares. Almost every purchase since then is down. About half of the shares outstanding were issued to buyers above today’s prices. That could cause some selling pressure.
• As many of you know, I often look at ARKK as a “proxy” for disruption. It too is down around 20% in the past month or so. That correlation, at least to me, seems “rational.” We have clearly seen a connection to “momentum” trades, including those “lottery tickets” that can play a role in your ProSec™ portfolio.
• What also caught our eye, and supports our view, was a tweet by an acclaimed investor who was surprised by how correlated a couple of his investments had become with bitcoin, despite no logical linkage. Presumably just a “similar” investor group that was selling other holdings to create liquidity?

Until crypto stabilizes, we could see an impact in all markets.

The money that has been lost is material and is likely leading to liquidity-raising trades in other markets, particularly those that have not fallen as much or are easier to execute. Remember this is also my one small concern about “public” credit, where fear in “private” credit might be causing some desire to reduce exposure to credit and it is generally easier to reduce exposure in public credit funds than in private credit ones.

Realized vol for the Nasdaq 100, for 10 and 30-day horizons, fell, but VIX remains above 20.

The MOVE Index (a measure of bond market volatility) fell, and is “reasonable” around 80, but I think the combination of higher correlations between asset classes (stocks, crypto, even commodities) and higher vol may cause some selling in the “risk parity” world – which would weigh on all markets.

WIRP Volatility – Whether to Laugh or Cry?

I don’t remember a time when I’ve seen predictions for the next Fed meeting swing so wildly. We are back to a 63% chance of a cut at the December meeting, up from 34% (checks notes) the day before! It is still slightly lower than the 67% on November 11.

With a lack of data, the Fed has to decide – do they want to give some insurance against stocks falling further? The minutes would indicate otherwise, but Williams’s comments give credence to that view. There really isn’t enough on the jobs front – the old NFP was released with better jobs, but a worse unemployment rate, though primarily due to more worker participation.

Is the economy cooling enough that inflation should not be viewed as a risk?

If the end of the “free money” trade starts to slow the data center AI spend, then we don’t need to worry about inflation.

I’d cut, but I’m not convinced the Fed will. My expectation remains that we will see 3% before next summer.

The 10-year yield rallied this week, primarily as a “safe haven” or “traditional” risk off hedge (which will help risk parity strategies avoid de-grossing in a meaningful way).

I am keeping an eye on Japanese bond yields, with the 30-year yield at 3.3% (probably the highest since shorting the JGB market was nicknamed the “widow maker”).

Over time, that yield in their home currency should create demand for JGBs at the expense of Treasuries. The strength of the dollar, versus yen, will mitigate that pressure, but something to keep an eye on.

Why Don’t I Read Other Research?

There are a lot of reasons why I don’t read much research from other sources. Sure, part of it is probably laziness. Part of it is also that I enjoy exploring and at Academy, we are in a unique position to form our own opinions as:

• We have a pretty broad-based macro understanding, with credit (one of the more difficult asset classes to understand) as the backdrop.
• The Geopolitical Intelligence Group has a lot of insights into the inner workings of what is going on domestically and globally.
• We also spend so much time virtually and in person visiting and talking to such a range of clients (including corporations, private equity, hedge funds, traditional asset managers, and some of the largest and most important states and municipal bond issuers in the country) that we have a lot of information coming to us from sources we understand.

Then, there are the other reasons:

If I know someone has written a piece on something I agree with, I become unmotivated to peck away at the keyboard, even if my rationale is different – so not knowing helps.

Then, and this is by far the biggest reason, if I see something I really disagree with, I want to write about it, even if I know I shouldn’t. Here is a case in point.

A Hedge Against AI Crash Emerges…

I know there is a cottage industry around predicting the “next big short.” I rail against it periodically. I may even be able to understand not liking the credit profile of the company in question, but thinking it is a “hedge” against an AI Crash is ludicrous

• The equity valuations of many companies in the space can go down significantly before credit risk becomes even a minor concern (again, think about how long companies that were struggling took to default – Toys R Us and Radio Shack as two examples).
• The BBB tranches, composed of BBB tranches of mortgages (the infamous ABX trade of big short fame) were unique in that they were inexpensive to short, and due to a variety of factors, were likely to have no recovery if triggered – not true of corporate debt.
• We have seen time and again and we have written about it on GE (the $100 Billion Credit in the Room) and credit more generally (2019 – The Year of the Debt Diet) - that companies will respond to pressure on their credit, and reduce that pressure.

While not completely relevant, I think people forget that:

1. It costs money, even at 100 bps, to be short.
2. 2. To keep the duration on a spread widening you constantly need to roll to the new 5- year CDS, which is costly over time.
3. 3. Credit in general, CDS in particular, is susceptible to being pushed, so timing the turn is difficult, but the corollary is that sometimes spreads that don’t make sense occur, because they can, not because it is a realistic assessment of risk.

Needless to say, you can probably tell what CDS I would be selling (i.e., taking credit risk on) right now, if I was in position to do so. Take into account this is coming from someone who still thinks there might be more pAIn ahead (stock weakness due to AI/Data Centers) and thinks credit spreads as a whole could leak a little, from a combination of factors.

Bottom Line

We didn’t talk much about ProSec though I could fill a page with links to reports I’ve received pointing out actions that all support the importance of Production for Security and why it will gain in importance for markets and the economy. We will do a deeper dive into ProSec later this week.

I think the economy is at a greater risk than we’ve seen in some time.

The AI/Data Center build-out could possibly slow, and that seems plausible given how the stocks have been reacting to spending (given how important that spending has been to the economy). The end of “free” money is probably worth more than the small pullback we’ve seen, but again, not an alarming turn of events.

The wealth effect of some of the high-flying names and asset classes is potentially an issue for the economy. The crypto/disruption wealth effect is clearly top of mind for me.

I’d cut, but I’m not sure the Fed will, but in any case, I think the risk-reward at the long end of the curve remains biased to higher yields, unless stocks decline by more than I expect – I still think this is more about rotation than a real, across the board, need to sell (QQQ vs RSP).

Safe travels and have a great Thanksgiving, though I hope to get one more T-Report out before you sit down for your Thanksgiving meal!

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 14:00

Rubio Confirms Ukraine Peace Plan Authored By US As Leaders Meet In Geneva

Officials from the United States, Europe, and Ukraine met in Geneva on Nov. 23 to discuss Washington’s draft plan to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

President Trump said on Nov. 21 that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had until Thursday to approve the 28-point plan, which would compel Ukraine to renounce ambitions to join NATO, accept limits on its military, and cede territory.

European allies said they were not consulted while Washington was drafting the plan, leading to some confusion as to which parties were involved in formulating it.

Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.) told MSNBC that he believed the plan was “basically drafted by Putin.”

As Ryan Morgan reports for The Epoch Times, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on Nov. 22, disputed claims that President Donald Trump’s latest plan to end the fighting in Ukraine amounts to a wish list for Russia.

“The peace proposal was authored by the U.S.,” Rubio wrote in a post on X on Saturday evening.

Rubio added that the proposal incorporated input from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides in the conflict, but his choice of words was careful:

“It is based on input from the Russian side. But it is also based on previous and ongoing input from Ukraine.”

Earlier on Saturday, PBS NewsHour correspondent Nick Schifrin reported that Rubio had made indications to Sens. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) and Angus King (I-Maine) that a leaked version of the 28-point proposal was not produced by the Trump administration.

“MORE from [King]: ‘The leaked 28-point plan, which, according to [Rubio], is not of the administration’s position--it is essentially the wish list of the Russians,” Schifrin wrote in a post on X on Saturday night.

Even before Rubio responded, State Department deputy spokesman Tommy Pigott said the allegations Schifrin was raising were “blatantly false.”

“As Secretary Rubio and the entire Administration has consistently maintained, this plan was authored by the United States, with input from both the Russians and Ukrainians,” Pigott wrote in an X post.

While the White House has yet to formally release the proposal, The Associated Press and other publications have published draft versions of the 28-point plan.

As we detailed previously, among other items, the published draft points indicated the United States would recognize Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto territories of Russia, and freeze the conflict along the current battle lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, effectively locking in Russian territorial gains throughout the course of the nearly four-year conflict.

The plan also appears to rule out Ukrainian entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and NATO will agree not to expand any further, while Russia will agree not to invade any more countries. Further, the plan states Ukraine will receive security guarantees, but will also have to cap the size of its military force.

Zelenskyy celebrated Sunday’s meeting in Geneva and said, “It is good that diplomacy has been reinvigorated and that the conversation can be constructive.”

“The Ukrainian and American teams, as well as the teams of our European partners, are in close contact, and I do hope that there will be a result. The bloodshed must be stopped, and we must ensure that the war is never reignited,” he wrote on social media.

“I am awaiting the results of today’s talks and hope that all participants will be constructive. We all need a positive outcome.”

The Ukrainian president had individually thanked all of Kyiv’s allies present at the meeting in Geneva in various posts on X late Saturday and early on Sunday.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he would have a phone call with Putin on Monday to discuss efforts to end the war in Ukraine, adding that he would also request the resumption of a deal for safe passage of grains in the Black Sea. Turkey, a NATO member, has kept up cordial relations with both Ukraine and Russia during the nearly four-year-long war, offering military assistance to Ukraine but not joining the West in sanctioning Moscow. Turkey has hosted three rounds of peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv in Istanbul and has offered to also host a leaders meeting. During a press conference at the G20 summit in South Africa on Sunday, Erdogan said the 2022 Black Sea grain deal that was negotiated between Turkey and the United Nations could demonstrate a path forward for a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine.

“We were able to succeed in this up to a certain point and it did not continue after. Now, during the discussions we will have tomorrow, I will again ask Mr. Putin about this. I think it would be very beneficial if we can start this process,” he said.

Faced with a Thanksgiving holiday deadline, European officials are racing to buy Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy more time with their own counter-proposal.

@DD_Geopolitics has posted the full text of Europe’s 24-point counter-proposal for a “peace plan.”

1. End the war and create arrangements meant to prevent any repeat, establishing a permanent framework for “lasting peace and security.”

2. Both sides commit to a full, unconditional ceasefire — in the air, on land, and at sea.

3. Immediate talks begin on the technical setup for monitoring the ceasefire, with U.S. and European participation.

4. A U.S.-led international monitoring mission is introduced, relying mainly on satellites, drones, and remote tools, with an on-the-ground component to investigate alleged violations.

5. A mechanism is created for filing and investigating ceasefire violations and discussing “corrective measures.”

6. Russia must “unconditionally” return all deported or “illegally displaced” Ukrainian children, under international supervision.

7. Full prisoner exchange under the “all for all” principle. Russia must also release all civilian detainees.

8. After the ceasefire stabilizes, both sides take humanitarian steps, including allowing family visits across the line of contact.

9. Ukraine’s sovereignty is reaffirmed; Ukraine cannot be forced into neutrality.

10. Ukraine receives legally binding security guarantees from the U.S. and others — effectively an Article 5-style arrangement.

11. No restrictions are placed on Ukraine’s armed forces or its defense industry, including foreign military cooperation.

12. Security guarantors form an ad-hoc group of European and willing non-European states. Ukraine decides which foreign forces, weapons, and missions it allows on its territory.

13. Ukraine’s NATO membership depends only on internal Alliance consensus.

14. Ukraine becomes an EU member.

15. Ukraine remains a non-nuclear state under the NPT.

16. Territorial issues are addressed only after a full unconditional ceasefire.

17. Territorial negotiations start from the current line of control.

18. Once agreed, neither Russia nor Ukraine may alter territorial arrangements by force.

19. Ukraine regains control of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (with U.S. involvement) and the Kakhovka Dam, under a special transfer mechanism.

20. Ukraine receives unhindered access on the Dnieper River and control of the Kinburn Spit.

21. Ukraine and its partners conduct unrestricted economic cooperation.

22. Ukraine is fully rebuilt and financially compensated — including through frozen Russian sovereign assets, which remain blocked until Russia pays compensation.

23. Sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be partially and gradually eased only after a “sustainable peace,” with automatic snap-back if the deal is violated.

24. Separate talks begin on European security architecture with all OSCE states.

@DD_Geopolitics editorial seemed to sum thinsg up well:

"As delusional as you’d expect from Delulu Land. They still haven’t grasped that the side losing the war isn’t the one that gets to make demands."

Meanwhile, Zelenskiy is battling a corruption scandal that threatens to engulf his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. So he’s feeling the heat, too, back home.

Finally, while speaking with reporters earlier in the day, Trump said the current plan doesn’t represent his final offer.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 13:25