Zero Hedge

The Swamp Got Bigger, Better Paid & More Secretive Since 2020

The Swamp Got Bigger, Better Paid & More Secretive Since 2020

Via Open The Books,

If you were told a business increased their staff headcount by 5% over four years but its payroll rose 24% over that time, all the while withholding the names of 39% of their staff, would you invest in that company?

Unlikely. But that’s just what the United State government does, funded by taxpayer dollars and operating as if accountable to no one.

Open the Books analyzed the FY 2024 payroll records of executive agencies and found that 2.9 million federal employees were paid $270 billion, compared to 2.8 million employees paid $217 billion in FY 2020. While the civilian employee ranks grew 5%, pay grew nearly 5 times as much, 24%.

The Office of Personnel Management provided the pay for over 1.5 million executive agency bureaucrats; Department of Defense provided pay for its 761,624 civilian employees; and United States Postal Service gave its 638,007 employees’ payroll, via Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests.

Not included are pay for judicial branch employees; the 535 members of Congress and their staff; the 1.3 million active-duty military members; the Office of the Vice President (which claims itself entirely exempt from FOIA); nor the staff of several intelligence agencies.

While payroll records don’t include benefits, adding an estimated 30% to the $270 billion payroll brings total costs to $351 billion.

That means the disclosed federal workforce costs the American taxpayer $673,000 per minute, $40.4 million per hour, and just under $1 billion per day.

Meanwhile, more than a million civilian names were redacted from payroll productions produced by Office of Personnel Management and Department of Defense.

The Trump administration has a historic opportunity to bring much-needed transparency to the administrative state. While federal employees don’t add as much to the debt as safety net programs, defense, and overall agency spending, they are an indicator of government growth.

A New Minimum Wage? $100,000 Earners

These employees are now being paid more than ever before.

The average pay exceeded $100,000 in 117 of 127 executive agencies and the White House.

In FY 2024, there were 31,452 federal employees who out-earned every governor of the 50 states. That includes the highest paid, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, who collects a $250,000 salary.

Even worse, there were 956 federal employees who outearned the president himself.

The vast majority — 939 people — are medical officers at the Veterans Health Administration, while another 15 doctors at the National Institutes of Health earning more than $400,000.

Two more people outearned the president: Micah Nix, an emergency room doctor with the Indian Health Service, part of Department of Health and Human Services and one other redacted employee working at Bureau of Prisons, part of Department of Justice.

The highest paid federal employee is cardiologist Gary H. Gibbons, Director of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute at the National Institutes of Health. He earned $519,246 last year.

Lest one think these highly paid doctors are the only ones raking in big checks, the payroll is top-heavy across the board.

Of the 2.1 million non-DOD employees in FY 2024, 793,537 people made $100,000 or more, a 49% increase from 532,784 people in FY 2020.

There were 68,445 employees who earned $200,000 or more – an 82% increase from 37,631 in FY 2020.

Those making $300,000 or more numbered at 14,144 – an 84% increase from 7,692 in FY 2020.

At least 20 federal agencies have an average pay above $150,000. Topping the list is Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where the 721 staffers make an average of $236,006.

The obscure Public Buildings Reform Board and Arctic Research Commission each pay their staff an average of $192,000, while the 1,851 employees of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau earn an average pay of $187,120.

Boards for Civil Rights Cold Case Review, Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight, and Surface Transportation have average pay between $166,091 and $181,903.

The Swamp Gets Larger

In the largest federal agencies, there’s little correlation between employee headcounts and increased pay.

In most cases, even a decrease in headcount still led to an increase in total pay for that agency.

For instance, the Post Office lost 6% of its staff between FY 2020 and FY 2024, yet payroll increased 11% during that time.

At Department of Justice, headcount decreased less than 1% but its payroll nonetheless increased 16%.

Social Security Administration and Department of Commerce both lost staff in those years, 4% and 8%, respectively, but their payrolls still increased 11% and 13%.

At the agencies where headcount increased, payroll soared past them. Department of Homeland Security increased its staff by 6% but its payroll went up 26%. Department of Transportation saw its staff grow by 3% but its payroll by 19%.

Those that grew headcount significantly saw their payroll skyrocket, including a 19% staff increase at both Department of Health and Human Services and Department of State, with 39% and 35% increased payrolls, respectively.

A 20% increase in Department of Energy headcount led to a 37% increase in paychecks.

Top 20 Departments and Agencies by Employee Count

FY 2024 Compared to FY 2020

“Name Withheld” for 39% of Staff

The secrecy of the federal bureaucracy has worsened.

It’s bad enough that Department of Defense redacted all 761,624 civilian employee names from their payroll, and that records production excludes pay for 1.3 million active-duty military members.

When Open the Books requested the FY 2022 federal payroll, the Biden administration had redacted the names of 350,860 rank-and-file employees.

In the most recent FY 2024 production a record-breaking 383,000 names were redacted in 58 federal agencies. Back in FY 2016, a mere 2,300 names were redacted. What gives?

Many of those include investigative and law enforcement roles in agencies including Departments of Homeland Security, Justice, Treasury and Veterans’ Affairs — which account for 97% of the redactions.

But still, dozens of additional agencies redacted names, from two each at U.S. Agency for Global Media, Office of National Drug Control Policy and Armed Forces Retirement Home, to over 1,000 each in Departments of Labor, Agriculture, Transportation and Health and Human Services. At Department of Interior, 2,331 identities were redacted.

The payroll report also contains no information about staff in the Office of the Vice President.

That’s because the Office of the Vice President claims not to be subject to FOIA and is not listed on the FOIA website.

Open the Books has tried unsuccessfully in the past to obtain the salaries through open records requests, and has accessed limited payroll information in the semi-annual Report of the Secretary of the Senate.

In the most recent report covering Oct. 1, 2024, through March 31, 2025, we can see that Kamala Harris ended her stay in the office with 43 staffers, while J.D. Vance began his vice presidential term with 23 staffers.

As the federal headcount and payroll grow, there are far too many redactions and blind spots that DOGE should have identified and fixed. We can’t have accountability for the federal workforce without better transparency.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 19:15

Berkshire Builds $4.9 Billion Stake In Alphabet; Adds To Chevron; Sells More Apple And Bank of America

Berkshire Builds $4.9 Billion Stake In Alphabet; Adds To Chevron; Sells More Apple And Bank of America

With less than two months left until the Berkshire Hathway becomes just another company after the 95-year-old Warren Buffett exits as CEO at the end of the year, there is still some (waning) interest in what this massive long only fund with a record $382 billion in cash, is buying and selling, or as we recently discussed, mostly selling. Which is why today's 13F deadline is usually a reason for the Berkshire faithful to promptly check out the company's latest stock holdings on Edgar.com.

What it showed was a total of $267.3 billion in long-only positions, an increase of $10 billion from the previous quarter, with, a handful of notable changes. 

Most notable was that in Q3, Berkshire acquired 17.9 million shares of Google parent Alphabet, the first time it has accumulated a position in the search engine,  while further trimming its holdings in Bank of America by 7% to 568 million shares, and Apple by 15% shares to 238 million shares or $60.6 billion as of Nov 30. At this rate, Apple which has been a mainstay at the top of Berkshire's investments, will soon be surpassed by #2, American Express, which was untouched for another quarter at 151.6 million shares, or roughly $50 billion.

Berkshire’s Alphabet stake, representing 0.31% of the outstanding shares, was worth $4.3 billion as of Sept 30, and about $4.9 billion as of the market close on Friday.

Some other notable movers, starting with additions:

  • Added 20.2 million shares of Chevron, boosting the value of that holding to $19 billion at the end of the quarter. 
  • Added 4.3 million shares of insurer Chubb, boosting the value of that holding to $8.8 billion 
  • Added 400K shares of Coke, bringing the total value to $26.5 billion.
  • Added 497.9K shares of Capital One, bringing the total value to $1.5 billion
  • Added 348K shares of Dominos Pizza, bringing the total value to $1.3 billion

And the reductions:

  • Sold 41.8 million shares of Apple, reducing the value of that holding to $60.7 billion at the end of the quarter. 
  • Sold 42.2 million shares of Bank of America, reducing the value of that holding to $29.3 billion 
  • Sold 1.6 million shares of Davita, reducing the value of that holding to $4.3 billion 
  • Sold 4.3 million shares of Verisign, reducing the value of that holding to $2.5 billion 
  • Sold 1.1 million shares of Constellation Bands, reducing the value of that holding to $1.8 billion 

Buffett also liquidated his entire small stake in DR Horton, which stayed on the books for a very brief 3 months, after it was initiated in Q2, 2025. However it wasn't a complete homebuilder capitulation, as Berkshire added a tiny 2,007 shares to its holdings in Lennar. 

Overall, as noted previously, the company was a net seller of equities during the period, offloading $6.1 billion of stocks. 

Buffett, 95, who will step down as CEO at year-end, has been finding ways to deploy some of Berkshire’s gargantuan cash pile, which rose to a record $382 billion at the end of the quarter. The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate recently reached a deal to buy Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s petrochemical business for $9.7 billion and acquired a $1.6 billion stake in UnitedHealth Group Inc.

The full summary of his holdings is below.

Source

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 18:50

US Agrees To $330 Million Sale Of Fighter Jets To Taiwan, Drawing Rebuke From China

US Agrees To $330 Million Sale Of Fighter Jets To Taiwan, Drawing Rebuke From China

Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times,

The United States agreed a $330 million deal for the sale of fighter jets and other aircraft parts to Taiwan on Nov. 13 in the first such deal since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, prompting anger from China.

The announcement of the proposed arms deal follows last month’s meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in a diplomatic bid to secure a trade deal amid the ongoing tariff war between the world’s two largest economies.

Red Line

Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory. Beijing’s foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian told reporters that the Chinese regime’s claim over Taiwan is at the core of China’s interests and is a red line that must not be crossed in China–U.S. relations.

He said the arms sale undermines Beijing’s sovereignty and security interests, sending what he called a “wrong signal” to Taiwan’s leaders.

The United States cut official ties with Taipei in 1979. While Washington has formal diplomatic ties with Beijing, its ties with Taiwan remain unofficial as the island nation maintains its own democratic government, military, and distinct way of life.

The United States is the main supplier of arms to the island nation and is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te delivers his address during National Day celebrations in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei on Oct. 10, 2025. Sung Pi-lung/The Epoch Times

‘Cornerstone of Peace’

The Pentagon said in a statement that the proposed sale will improve Taiwan’s “capability to meet current and future threats by maintaining the operational readiness of the recipient’s fleet of F-16, C-130,” and other aircraft.

“The deepening of the Taiwan-U.S. security partnership is an important cornerstone of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” Taiwan’s presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo said in a statement, noting the arms sale was the first announced by the current administration.

The statement thanked Washington for continuing its policy of regularized arms sales to Taiwan and supporting the island in enhancing its defense capabilities.

The deal, expected to take effect within a month, will help maintain the air force’s fighter readiness and bolster air defenses, strengthen resilience, and enhance the nation’s ability to respond to China’s “gray-zone” incursions, Taiwan’s defense ministry said.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has not ruled out the use of force to take control of the island.

Taiwan’s government strongly refutes Beijing’s sovereignty claims.

A U.S.-made F-16V fighter jet taxis on the runway at an air force base during Taiwan's annual Han Kuang military drills in Hualien on July 23, 2024. Sam Yeh / AFP via Getty Images

Trump said in August that Xi told him he would not invade Taiwan while the Republican leader remains in office.

He made the comments in an interview with Fox News, ahead of a planned talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Russia–Ukraine war.

“I don’t believe there’s any way it’s going to happen as long as I’m here,” Trump said of a potential invasion of the island nation.

“He told me, ‘I will never do it as long as you’re president,’” Trump said, regarding Xi.

“But he also said, ‘But I am very patient, and China is very patient.’”

Trump said he told Xi, “Well, that’s up to you, but it better not happen now.”

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in March that China planned to pursue the “reunification” of Taiwan and would oppose external interference. The CCP has never ruled Taiwan.

Military Exercises

The CCP’s military stages regular exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, which the government in Taipei regards as a way of putting pressure on the island, while stopping short of actual combat.

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has repeatedly offered to have talks with China, but Beijing has refused, calling him a “separatist.”

The history between China and Taiwan is long and complex. The island nation, with an estimated population of around 23.9 million to China’s 1.4 billion, is known officially as the Republic of China, and most nations only recognize it unofficially.

Taiwan, which uses the official name the Republic of China (ROC) as shown on its citizens’ passports, is the last territory of the republic that also ruled mainland China from 1911 to 1949.

After being defeated by the CCP in 1949 on the mainland, the ROC’s nationalist government, led by Chiang Kai-shek, retreated to the island of Taiwan, which was returned to China from Japanese occupation in 1945. The Republic of China has remained Taiwan’s official name since then. Meanwhile, the CCP established the communist regime, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), on the mainland in 1949.

Polling in Taiwan consistently shows that the vast majority favors the status quo, with younger people more in favor of declaring full independence from China. In a poll from earlier this year, 82.5 percent of respondents rejected Beijing’s claim that “Taiwan is part of China’s territory.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 18:25

Secret US Memo Links Venezuela To 'Chemical Weapons Threat'

Secret US Memo Links Venezuela To 'Chemical Weapons Threat'

It didn't take long for the words Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela, and chemical weapons to show up in the same US government national security memo. We've examined before various possible 'justifications' Washington might use for some kind of future military action on Venezuela, or even a full regime change operation.

From Vietnam to Iraq to Libya, Washington is always looking for some kind of casus belli - even if it has to be manufactured - to sell war to the American people. And now we're quickly in WMD territory at a moment that unprecedented US Naval power is parked off Venezuela's coast.

"A classified Justice Department brief authorizing strikes on drug-smuggling boats describes fentanyl as a potential chemical weapons threat, according to a House member and another person familiar with the memo," a Friday Wall Street Journal report says.

DEA-seized fentanyl in the US. Image source: DEA/CNN

It cites a lengthy document by the department’s Office of Legal Counsel, which lays out the legal justification of the Trump administration for continuing military operations in the southern Caribbean with an eye on Venezuela. 

Revelation of the classified memo comes less than 12 hours after US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth late in the day Thursday announced a new major US military campaign, dubbed "Operation Southern Spear," ordered by President Trump.

"Led by Joint Task Force Southern Spear and SOUTHCOM, this mission defends our Homeland, removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people," the Pentagon chief described. He added "The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood – and we will protect it."

But the chemical weapons angle is unlikely to be very convincing to Congressional leaders, much less the American public:

The main argument in the memo is that President Trump’s designation of drug cartels as foreign terrorists makes them legitimate military targets, asserting that the groups are smuggling drugs to fund deadly and destabilizing actions against the U.S. and its allies, according to lawmakers and others who have read it.

So there are 'terrorists' who possess a substance classified as a 'chemical weapon'. WSJ continues, "The mention of fentanyl is one of many points in the brief, which was drafted over the summer to justify the use of military force against drug traffickers. The legal case for military action doesn’t rest on concerns about chemical-weapons use."

Still, it's very questionable whether Venezuela is actually at all involved in the fentanyl trade, as the report notes further:

Venezuela, a base for one of the criminal groups designated as a terrorist organization, has long been a transit route for Colombian cocaine. There is no evidence it produces or traffics fentanyl, which is typically made in Mexico and smuggled over land, experts note.

"It is an incredible stretch," said Brian Finucane, a former legal adviser to the State Department during the Obama administrations and first Trump administration said of the memo’s warning about fentanyl.

Fentanyl as a "chemical weapon"...

 

The Center for Disease Control's (CDC) National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) has written that "Fentanyl depresses central nervous system (CNS) and respiratory function. Exposure to fentanyl may be fatal." It has a potency at least 80 times that of morphine.

Going back several years, the single biggest sources of the world's fentanyl trade have been consistently identified as China and Mexico. At this point it's impossible to know, and hasn't been disclosed, whether any of the some 20 boats blown up by US military action off Latin America since September have been loaded with fentanyl, or in what quantities. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 18:00

Waymo Launches First US Freeway Robotaxi Rides In California And Arizona

Waymo Launches First US Freeway Robotaxi Rides In California And Arizona

Authored by Cynthia Cai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Waymo has launched driverless robotaxi rides on freeways in the United States, a first in the country for autonomous ride-hailing services.

A self-driving Waymo vehicle awaits passengers in Los Angeles on July 1, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

In a Nov. 12 announcement, the Alphabet-owned company said it will provide some riders with routes that include freeways in California’s San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles as well as in Phoenix, Arizona.

The expansion will also include curbside service at San Jose Mineta International Airport. The company is still in the testing phase at San Francisco International Airport.

Users need to opt in to Waymo’s new services and features through the app to be able to try this kind of trip.

The open road symbolizes freedom and unlimited possibility—highlighted especially by the ease and speed by which freeways allow us to get where we’re going,” the company said in the announcement.

Waymo has been rapidly expanding its autonomous ride-hailing services domestically and abroad. Earlier this month, it announced plans to launch robotaxi services in San Diego, Detroit, and Las Vegas.

London is also slated to welcome these fully driverless vehicles to its streets in 2026 as a pilot project.

“Over the coming months, we’ll lay the groundwork for our service in collaboration with our fleet operations partner Moove, and continue to engage with local and national leaders to secure the necessary permissions for our commercial ride-hailing service in London,” Waymo said.

In April this year, Waymo brought its vehicles to Tokyo, where the company began adapting its technology and operations to the busy roads of Japan’s capital city.

Waymo isn’t the only company aiming to bring autonomous ride-hailing to the public, as Tesla recently launched limited self-driving cab services in Austin, Texas. However, with Tesla rides, a human safety operator sits in the front passenger or driver’s seat. Most Waymo cabs are unmanned.

Tesla’s website says its Robotaxi fleet is currently invite-only and consists of Model Y vehicles, and riders are required to stay out of the driver’s seat.

Earlier this year, California greenlit Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing services for limited operation in pre-arranged trips available to company employees. Tesla obtained a charter-party carrier permit, which allows the company to work towards expanding its service to members of the public, the California Department of Motor Vehicles stated in March.

Tesla’s self-driving technology relies on exterior cameras for 360-degree visibility and artificial intelligence (AI) to navigate roads. Its AI system works to identify objects on the road and maintain speed to keep up with traffic conditions.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s autonomous technology uses a combination of lidar, cameras, radar, and computing to create a 3D picture of the car’s surroundings for the Waymo Driver system to make decisions while on the road.

Over the years, Waymo has faced obstacles while trying to make autonomous ride-hailing widely available.

In 2024, the company temporarily paused expansion plans in California after public officials in San Mateo and Los Angeles counties raised concerns about Waymo cars potentially stalling and causing public safety issues by blocking firefighters and police.

The U.S. Department of Transportation in 2024 probed Waymo’s autonomous driving system following reports of crashes and violations of traffic safety laws.

These cars have also been the target of vandalism. A mob surrounded, smashed, and set on fire a stopped car in San Francisco during Lunar New Year celebrations last year.

Similarly, protesters destroyed several Waymo vehicles during riots in Los Angeles earlier this year. Videos and photos showed rioters calling for the vehicles on apps. When the cars arrived, rioters sprayed graffiti, tore the cars apart, and set them ablaze.

The Mountain View, California-based company currently has over 1,500 cars in its fleet spread across San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, with the goal of building 2,000 more fully autonomous I-PACE vehicles through next year.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 17:40

Hegseth Announces New Military Campaign 'Operation Southern Spear'

Hegseth Announces New Military Campaign 'Operation Southern Spear'

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth late in the day Thursday announced a new major US military campaign, dubbed "Operation Southern Spear," which he said was ordered by President Trump at a moment of unprecedented build-up of naval assets and troops in the southern Caribbean.

"President Trump ordered action - and the Department of War is delivering," Hegseth began in his message on X. "Today, I’m announcing Operation SOUTHERN SPEAR."

Source: US Navy handout

The message was not accompanied by any additional escalation or military action against Venezuela, other than the drone boat strikes of late which have become typical. Some 21 alleged drug boats have been blown out of the water off Latin America in operations stretching back to September.

"Led by Joint Task Force Southern Spear and SOUTHCOM, this mission defends our Homeland, removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people," the Pentagon chief described. He added "The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood – and we will protect it."

Simultaneously in its own post on social media, SOUTHCOM announced that the US Marines were conducting artillery training onboard the USS Iwo Jima in the Caribbean in support of the commander-in-chief's "priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the homeland."

The USS Iwo Jima is the type of amphibious assault ship which could theoretically land on Venezuela's coast and deliver troops, though this is unlikely at this stage. Any Trump-ordered assault would likely stay at the level of aerial strikes on land targets.

Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday rejected criticism of US attacks on narco-vessels from G-7 allies. He emphasized that Europeans will not dictate how Washington chooses to defend US national security.

"I don’t think that the European Union gets to determine what international law is, and what they certainly don’t get to determine is how the United States defends its national security," he told a reporter while fielding a question. "The United States is under attack from organized criminal narco-terrorists in our hemisphere, and the President is responding in the defense of our country."

"I do find it interesting that all of these countries want us to send and supply, for example, nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles to defend Europe, but when the United States positions aircraft carriers in our hemisphere where we live, somehow that’s a problem," Rubio added.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 17:20

5,000 Dead People Getting SNAP; 500,000 Getting Benefits Twice: Rollins

5,000 Dead People Getting SNAP; 500,000 Getting Benefits Twice: Rollins

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The secretary of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a recent interview that the department found that 500,000 people are registered twice for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, while more than 5,000 deceased people have also been receiving the benefits.

In an interview on Nov. 12 with Fox News, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said that SNAP is one of the “most corrupt, dysfunctional programs” in U.S. history, adding that 80 percent of people using the program are able to work.

After an investigation, the secretary said that 5,000 dead people were getting SNAP, while another 500,000 people were getting SNAP twice under the same name.

“They choose not to work because taxpayers are footing the bill,” she added, saying that “very big announcements” will be coming in the next week.

Her comment was made as SNAP benefits, known as food stamps, saw setbacks and legal wrangling during the government shutdown that was ended on Wednesday evening.

Rollins also suggested that if some SNAP benefits are cut off, more illegal immigrants will self-deport, which she said would change the outcome of the Census.

Earlier in the month, as SNAP benefits were suspended, Rollins described “massive fraud” in the system, noting that the fraud was discovered only in states that had cooperated with a prior investigation. She said that 21 states refused to hand over their SNAP data to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which was established by the Trump administration earlier this year.

After the shutdown ended, the USDA, which runs the program, issued new guidance on Nov. 13 saying that “state agencies must take immediate steps to ensure households receive their full November allotments promptly.”

“The reduction in maximum allotments for November is no longer in effect,” it added.

“State agencies should immediately resume issuing combined allotments for November and December for newly certified applicants who apply after the 15th of the month.”

Officials with USDA said that because households that receive SNAP didn’t get a full month of benefits and saw uncertainty, the department sent instructions to states “to not issue countable months for time limited participants for November 2025” and that states “should resume normal procedures for countable months beginning in December 2025.”

The federal food program is used by about 42 million people, or around one in eight Americans, namely in lower-income households. They receive an average of $190 monthly per person.

In some states where SNAP recipients received nothing in November, officials said they are working to load money onto people’s electronic benefit cards by Friday, if not sooner.

The Arkansas Department of Human Services said on Nov. 13 that full November SNAP benefits are expected to be available at midnight for people to buy groceries.

“This has been difficult for our beneficiaries, and we are incredibly appreciative to our partners across the state who helped bridge the gap through food pantries, donation drives, and other assistance efforts,” Department Secretary Janet Mann said in a statement.

Officials in West Virginia, which also had not issued November benefits, said the full monthly amount should be available by Nov. 14. And Alabama said full SNAP benefits should be issued on Nov. 13.

The shutdown ended as President Donald Trump signed a continuing resolution to fund the federal government until late January, coming after the Senate and House passed a funding package.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 17:00

How Do Empires Fall?

How Do Empires Fall?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Our Democray (I'm Sure)

"How do empires fall? Not by war, but by unbalanced minds disconnected from reality."

- The Vigilant Fox on “X"

By now, whenever you hear anyone invoke the phrase “saving our democracy,” that should be a signal that they are intent on destroying this republic, and with that, your natural rights to free speech, economic liberty, and public order.

What began in 2016 as a simple, high-level plot to take out Donald Trump and squash Trumpism — a grassroots revolt against those very high-level DC insiders —turned sharply in 2017 into a long-running cover-up operation that spawned a multiplying cycle of seditions, treasons, and betrayals of the public — as the insiders desperately tried to evade culpability for each previous act — and finally blossomed into a rolling coup with crypto-Jacobin overtones as the insiders’ useful idiots were recruited to run with the ball of color revolution.

For those who can’t quite wrap their minds around this game, a color revolution is the surreptitious overthrow of an elected government by concealed parties. Neocons in the US State Department developed the practice of color revolution on many countries over the years. Mr. Obama added a layer of gnostic Marxists to the personnel mix at State, and these wannabe revolutionaries built a fantastic matrix of NGOs outside State to marshal the useful idiots with jobs and salaries. The NGOs, in turn, were connected to international moneybags, with strange agendas of their own such as the megalomanic climate change crusader Bill Gates and George Soros’s Open Society Foundation, which funds anarchist district attorneys, the defense of election fraud, mass illegal migration, internet censorship, and money-flows into Antifa, the Left’s street fighters.

The motives of these players might appear murky, but at this point they can be boiled down to:

1) staying out of jail, and

2) retaining control of their empires.

Hillary Clinton, for instance, surely wants to stay out of jail for her RussiaGate caper, and retain the ill-gotten lucre of the Clinton Foundation she lives off. At 95, George Soros himself is probably beyond caring about all this, but his son Alex, 38, carries on, and recently cemented his alliance with the Clinton Foundation by marrying the former Mrs. Anthony Wiener, Huma Abedin, Hillary Clinton’s long-time wing-gal.

The Democratic Party plays an increasingly curious part in this rolling coup as all its efforts look evermore insane and self-extinguishing — the bootless government shutdown being the latest exercise. The party can no longer meaningfully represent organized labor — since labor moved to faraway lands — so it attempted to replace that earnest bond with fronting for women and minorities.

This has resulted in two problems:

1) women taking over the actual machinery of the party has transformed mere politics into never-ending psychodrama and boosted the amplitude of political dirty-fighting to dangerous new levels; and

2) cultivating minority groups has led to an orgy of race-and-gender hustles that amount to gigantic racketeering operations (i.e., making money dishonestly).

All of that sound, fury, and roguery is now dedicated only to staving off the party’s collapse and thwarting Mr. Trump’s attempt to restore something like regular order in public affairs, which the Democratic Party calls “authoritarianism.” Regular order is something that healthy male psychology takes an interest in, since it entails defense of the culture, in this case, Western Civ and its heritage. That implies the uses of strength as opposed to the stratagems of weakness. It must acknowledge and rely on classic virtues such as fortitude, prudence, and a preference for what is — as opposed to wishes and fantasies.

Psychodrama dispenses with all that for the sake of emotional gratification, often mis-characterized as empathy or caring. It can transform easily into sadism — as you can see now with the calls for violence and murder against Trump-adjacent persons. Meanwhile, be aware that the cries for “saving our democracy” come from the people opposed to regular order in elections, that is, voter ID, voting on election day only, with results reported out at day’s end, paper ballots and no electronic counting machines, and no mail-in ballots (except for people out of the country on election day). All of these stipulations are observed in other nations of Western Civ, and beyond, even in lands where people go about half-clothed.

The current psychodrama, of course, is the latest installment of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. The Democrats are flogging it with Wile E. Coyote zeal. I suspect it is an Acme booby trap for the ages and it is being carefully laid by Mr. Trump, the Roadrunner, to blow up un the Dems’ faces when all the documents are finally sorted out. Anyway, it has nothing to do with the real-world problems that the US faces, such as runaway financialization of the economy, a broken medical system, mass job layoffs, the collapse of education, surging mental illness, the drug plague, and the sinking middle-class.

We’re entering a new phase in the ongoing color revolution, the coup against America, and it’s liable to be the final phase in which all the mystery gets wrung out, the motives are revealed, and the players are correctly sorted and labeled according to their deeds.

No new psychodrama will avail to stop what’s coming.

*  *  *

Now live: JHK’s new novel, a comic romp set during the week of the tragic JFK Assassination, November 1963. Amusing excerpt from the book at this link.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 16:20

How Do Empires Fall?

How Do Empires Fall?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Our Democray (I'm Sure)

"How do empires fall? Not by war, but by unbalanced minds disconnected from reality."

- The Vigilant Fox on “X"

By now, whenever you hear anyone invoke the phrase “saving our democracy,” that should be a signal that they are intent on destroying this republic, and with that, your natural rights to free speech, economic liberty, and public order.

What began in 2016 as a simple, high-level plot to take out Donald Trump and squash Trumpism — a grassroots revolt against those very high-level DC insiders —turned sharply in 2017 into a long-running cover-up operation that spawned a multiplying cycle of seditions, treasons, and betrayals of the public — as the insiders desperately tried to evade culpability for each previous act — and finally blossomed into a rolling coup with crypto-Jacobin overtones as the insiders’ useful idiots were recruited to run with the ball of color revolution.

For those who can’t quite wrap their minds around this game, a color revolution is the surreptitious overthrow of an elected government by concealed parties. Neocons in the US State Department developed the practice of color revolution on many countries over the years. Mr. Obama added a layer of gnostic Marxists to the personnel mix at State, and these wannabe revolutionaries built a fantastic matrix of NGOs outside State to marshal the useful idiots with jobs and salaries. The NGOs, in turn, were connected to international moneybags, with strange agendas of their own such as the megalomanic climate change crusader Bill Gates and George Soros’s Open Society Foundation, which funds anarchist district attorneys, the defense of election fraud, mass illegal migration, internet censorship, and money-flows into Antifa, the Left’s street fighters.

The motives of these players might appear murky, but at this point they can be boiled down to:

1) staying out of jail, and

2) retaining control of their empires.

Hillary Clinton, for instance, surely wants to stay out of jail for her RussiaGate caper, and retain the ill-gotten lucre of the Clinton Foundation she lives off. At 95, George Soros himself is probably beyond caring about all this, but his son Alex, 38, carries on, and recently cemented his alliance with the Clinton Foundation by marrying the former Mrs. Anthony Wiener, Huma Abedin, Hillary Clinton’s long-time wing-gal.

The Democratic Party plays an increasingly curious part in this rolling coup as all its efforts look evermore insane and self-extinguishing — the bootless government shutdown being the latest exercise. The party can no longer meaningfully represent organized labor — since labor moved to faraway lands — so it attempted to replace that earnest bond with fronting for women and minorities.

This has resulted in two problems:

1) women taking over the actual machinery of the party has transformed mere politics into never-ending psychodrama and boosted the amplitude of political dirty-fighting to dangerous new levels; and

2) cultivating minority groups has led to an orgy of race-and-gender hustles that amount to gigantic racketeering operations (i.e., making money dishonestly).

All of that sound, fury, and roguery is now dedicated only to staving off the party’s collapse and thwarting Mr. Trump’s attempt to restore something like regular order in public affairs, which the Democratic Party calls “authoritarianism.” Regular order is something that healthy male psychology takes an interest in, since it entails defense of the culture, in this case, Western Civ and its heritage. That implies the uses of strength as opposed to the stratagems of weakness. It must acknowledge and rely on classic virtues such as fortitude, prudence, and a preference for what is — as opposed to wishes and fantasies.

Psychodrama dispenses with all that for the sake of emotional gratification, often mis-characterized as empathy or caring. It can transform easily into sadism — as you can see now with the calls for violence and murder against Trump-adjacent persons. Meanwhile, be aware that the cries for “saving our democracy” come from the people opposed to regular order in elections, that is, voter ID, voting on election day only, with results reported out at day’s end, paper ballots and no electronic counting machines, and no mail-in ballots (except for people out of the country on election day). All of these stipulations are observed in other nations of Western Civ, and beyond, even in lands where people go about half-clothed.

The current psychodrama, of course, is the latest installment of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. The Democrats are flogging it with Wile E. Coyote zeal. I suspect it is an Acme booby trap for the ages and it is being carefully laid by Mr. Trump, the Roadrunner, to blow up un the Dems’ faces when all the documents are finally sorted out. Anyway, it has nothing to do with the real-world problems that the US faces, such as runaway financialization of the economy, a broken medical system, mass job layoffs, the collapse of education, surging mental illness, the drug plague, and the sinking middle-class.

We’re entering a new phase in the ongoing color revolution, the coup against America, and it’s liable to be the final phase in which all the mystery gets wrung out, the motives are revealed, and the players are correctly sorted and labeled according to their deeds.

No new psychodrama will avail to stop what’s coming.

*  *  *

Now live: JHK’s new novel, a comic romp set during the week of the tragic JFK Assassination, November 1963. Amusing excerpt from the book at this link.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 16:20

The Nerve! DNC Union Furious Over A Five-Day, In-Person Work-Week

The Nerve! DNC Union Furious Over A Five-Day, In-Person Work-Week

Authored by Lincoln Brown via PJMedia.com,

I have been employed at one job or another since high school. My first “real” job was as a busboy in a department store restaurant. Times were tough, so I had to pick up a part-time job after school. I’d get home from school, put on a pair of black polyester pants and a white shirt, both of which reeked of cooked food, and go to work. I’d bus tables during the dinner shift, and during lunch and dinner on the weekends, and do my homework or, more often than not, watch a little MTV when my shift was over. 

Even after things got better for my family, I kept working because even as a teenage boy, I realized that money came in handy. As it turns out, girls appreciate a guy who can pay for dinner and a movie. And you can buy stuff like clothes. 

During my time in the workforce, there were two rules that I thought were pretty much givens.

Rule #1

If your employer schedules you for a shift or whatever it is you work, you show up on time and do what you’re told to do.

Rule #2

If you don’t like Rule #1, find another job. If you can.

That, apparently, is not SOP in the 21st century.

I submit to you the staffers at the Democratic National Committee.

They are currently affronted, insulted, traumatized, made to feel unsafe, victimized, and suffering from acute cases of out-of-joint noses and ruffled feathers because the DNC bosses told them that, henceforth, they would have to show up, in person, at their jobs for the entire five-day work week.

 As Col. Kurtz would say, “The horror. The horror.”

The Daily Caller reports that on Wednesday, DNC Chairman Ken Martin let the word go forth at a staff-wide meeting that as of February of next year, D.C. area employees would need to be back to work, full-time, at the DNC offices in Washington.

And the cries went up from both those who attended the meeting and those watching via Zoom. Citing the New York Times, the Caller said that “thumbs down emojis” began to flood the screen. The Employees International Union, which represents the DNC workers, said:

It was shocking to see the DNC chair disregard staff’s valid concerns on today’s team call.

DNC staff worked extremely hard to support historic wins for Democrats up and down the ballot last Tuesday, and this change feels especially callous considering the current economic conditions created by the Trump administration.

Oh, and the union also thinks that the decision is “callous.”  

One person groused that the party had won the 2020 presidential race with everyone working remotely, and that they should be allowed to work from home at least until 2028.

Of course, no one at the DNC wants to talk about 2024. Or maybe they do, which is why they are rounding everyone up and re-assigning cubicles or workspaces. Or whatever it is they use at the DNC. Maybe hammocks? Who knows?

Martin let the disgruntled team members know that if they felt they were not up to the task of working in person and showing up five days a week, they might want to spruce up their resumes and seek their fortunes elsewhere. And although I am no longer a Democrat, I would have to concur.

So the DNC staff members have until February, February, mind you, to find pants, shoes, a razor, and get a haircut and a shower before doing what millions of other Americans do every day. And they are still unhappy.

This, of course, is the end-product of letting people throw tantrums and make threats under the guise of feeling safe or living their truths. All I have to say to the DNC is you created this monster and now you get to live with it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 15:40

The Nerve! DNC Union Furious Over A Five-Day, In-Person Work-Week

The Nerve! DNC Union Furious Over A Five-Day, In-Person Work-Week

Authored by Lincoln Brown via PJMedia.com,

I have been employed at one job or another since high school. My first “real” job was as a busboy in a department store restaurant. Times were tough, so I had to pick up a part-time job after school. I’d get home from school, put on a pair of black polyester pants and a white shirt, both of which reeked of cooked food, and go to work. I’d bus tables during the dinner shift, and during lunch and dinner on the weekends, and do my homework or, more often than not, watch a little MTV when my shift was over. 

Even after things got better for my family, I kept working because even as a teenage boy, I realized that money came in handy. As it turns out, girls appreciate a guy who can pay for dinner and a movie. And you can buy stuff like clothes. 

During my time in the workforce, there were two rules that I thought were pretty much givens.

Rule #1

If your employer schedules you for a shift or whatever it is you work, you show up on time and do what you’re told to do.

Rule #2

If you don’t like Rule #1, find another job. If you can.

That, apparently, is not SOP in the 21st century.

I submit to you the staffers at the Democratic National Committee.

They are currently affronted, insulted, traumatized, made to feel unsafe, victimized, and suffering from acute cases of out-of-joint noses and ruffled feathers because the DNC bosses told them that, henceforth, they would have to show up, in person, at their jobs for the entire five-day work week.

 As Col. Kurtz would say, “The horror. The horror.”

The Daily Caller reports that on Wednesday, DNC Chairman Ken Martin let the word go forth at a staff-wide meeting that as of February of next year, D.C. area employees would need to be back to work, full-time, at the DNC offices in Washington.

And the cries went up from both those who attended the meeting and those watching via Zoom. Citing the New York Times, the Caller said that “thumbs down emojis” began to flood the screen. The Employees International Union, which represents the DNC workers, said:

It was shocking to see the DNC chair disregard staff’s valid concerns on today’s team call.

DNC staff worked extremely hard to support historic wins for Democrats up and down the ballot last Tuesday, and this change feels especially callous considering the current economic conditions created by the Trump administration.

Oh, and the union also thinks that the decision is “callous.”  

One person groused that the party had won the 2020 presidential race with everyone working remotely, and that they should be allowed to work from home at least until 2028.

Of course, no one at the DNC wants to talk about 2024. Or maybe they do, which is why they are rounding everyone up and re-assigning cubicles or workspaces. Or whatever it is they use at the DNC. Maybe hammocks? Who knows?

Martin let the disgruntled team members know that if they felt they were not up to the task of working in person and showing up five days a week, they might want to spruce up their resumes and seek their fortunes elsewhere. And although I am no longer a Democrat, I would have to concur.

So the DNC staff members have until February, February, mind you, to find pants, shoes, a razor, and get a haircut and a shower before doing what millions of other Americans do every day. And they are still unhappy.

This, of course, is the end-product of letting people throw tantrums and make threats under the guise of feeling safe or living their truths. All I have to say to the DNC is you created this monster and now you get to live with it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 15:40

Trump Admin Rolls Back Biden-Era Restrictions On Alaska Oil And Gas Drilling

Trump Admin Rolls Back Biden-Era Restrictions On Alaska Oil And Gas Drilling

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration said Nov. 13 that it has finalized a rule rescinding Biden-era restrictions on oil and gas drilling in Alaska as part of efforts to strengthen U.S. energy security.

The new rule, to be published in the Federal Register on Nov. 17, will revoke the measures imposed by the Biden administration that restricted drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve on the North Slope, according to the Interior Department (DOI).

The petroleum reserve in Alaska, spanning roughly 23 million acres, was designated in 1923. Last year, the Biden administration restricted oil and gas drilling on over 13 million acres of the area for environmental reasons.

The DOI stated that it aims to restore drilling in the area to strengthen energy supply and reduce U.S. reliance on foreign sources, following President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order that called for the expansion of natural resource development across federal and state lands in Alaska.

“By rescinding the 2024 rule, we are following the direction set by President Trump to unlock Alaska’s energy potential, create jobs for North Slope communities and strengthen American energy security,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a Nov. 13 statement.

“This action restores common-sense management and ensures responsible development benefits both Alaska and the nation.”

Voice of the Arctic Inupiat, a nonprofit representing North Slope communities in Alaska, said it supports the move, noting that it would help sustain power generation, education, and other services that rely on tax revenue from resource development infrastructure.

North Slope Borough Mayor Josiah Patkotak also voiced support, calling the move a “meaningful step toward restoring a federal process” that respects local leadership in Alaska.

“Good policy comes from good process, which requires hearing directly from the people who live, work, and hunt here,” Patkotak said in a statement issued by the nonprofit.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) opposed the move, claiming the DOI’s new rule disregards its obligation to protect the reserve.

“This rollback is nothing more than a giveaway to the oil and gas industry,” Bobby McEnaney, NRDC director of land conservation, said in a statement.

“Weakening protections is reckless, and it threatens to erase the very landscapes Congress sought to safeguard.”

This is not the first such Biden-era restriction that Trump has rolled back. Last month, the DOI announced that it would reopen the coastal plain of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas leasing and reissued permits for the 211-mile Ambler Road Project, which would allow access to cooper and cobalt deposits in the area.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 15:00

Trump Admin Rolls Back Biden-Era Restrictions On Alaska Oil And Gas Drilling

Trump Admin Rolls Back Biden-Era Restrictions On Alaska Oil And Gas Drilling

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration said Nov. 13 that it has finalized a rule rescinding Biden-era restrictions on oil and gas drilling in Alaska as part of efforts to strengthen U.S. energy security.

The new rule, to be published in the Federal Register on Nov. 17, will revoke the measures imposed by the Biden administration that restricted drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve on the North Slope, according to the Interior Department (DOI).

The petroleum reserve in Alaska, spanning roughly 23 million acres, was designated in 1923. Last year, the Biden administration restricted oil and gas drilling on over 13 million acres of the area for environmental reasons.

The DOI stated that it aims to restore drilling in the area to strengthen energy supply and reduce U.S. reliance on foreign sources, following President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order that called for the expansion of natural resource development across federal and state lands in Alaska.

“By rescinding the 2024 rule, we are following the direction set by President Trump to unlock Alaska’s energy potential, create jobs for North Slope communities and strengthen American energy security,” Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in a Nov. 13 statement.

“This action restores common-sense management and ensures responsible development benefits both Alaska and the nation.”

Voice of the Arctic Inupiat, a nonprofit representing North Slope communities in Alaska, said it supports the move, noting that it would help sustain power generation, education, and other services that rely on tax revenue from resource development infrastructure.

North Slope Borough Mayor Josiah Patkotak also voiced support, calling the move a “meaningful step toward restoring a federal process” that respects local leadership in Alaska.

“Good policy comes from good process, which requires hearing directly from the people who live, work, and hunt here,” Patkotak said in a statement issued by the nonprofit.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) opposed the move, claiming the DOI’s new rule disregards its obligation to protect the reserve.

“This rollback is nothing more than a giveaway to the oil and gas industry,” Bobby McEnaney, NRDC director of land conservation, said in a statement.

“Weakening protections is reckless, and it threatens to erase the very landscapes Congress sought to safeguard.”

This is not the first such Biden-era restriction that Trump has rolled back. Last month, the DOI announced that it would reopen the coastal plain of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas leasing and reissued permits for the 211-mile Ambler Road Project, which would allow access to cooper and cobalt deposits in the area.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 15:00

Democrats' Epstein Email Dump Backfires As Trump Sets DoJ On Clinton, Summers, Hoffman, Et Al.

Democrats' Epstein Email Dump Backfires As Trump Sets DoJ On Clinton, Summers, Hoffman, Et Al.

Democratic political operatives initiated a coordinated propaganda attack centered on releasing Jeffrey Epstein's emails and promoting a range of narratives targeting President Trump, including claims that he and Epstein shared a Thanksgiving dinner in 2017. The Trump team has since responded, with the Department of Justice and the FBI set to begin investigations into "Epstein's involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, and Reid Hoffman."

Let's begin here: The email dump occurred on the same day Trump signed legislation ending the record-long government shutdown, a shutdown driven by the Democratic Party's decision to hold government funding hostage, triggering nationwide travel disruptions and SNAP funding outages.

What's clear is that the Democratic Party staked heavily on the Jeffrey Epstein email narrative. Bloomberg data shows that headlines mentioning "Epstein" were minimal throughout the shutdown, but as soon as Trump signed the bill to reopen the government, putting Democrats in a very unfavorable position and creating terrible optics in the news cycle, their propaganda cannon was fired. 

Western Journal's C. Douglas Golden describes the Democratic Party's maneuvering to control the news cycle after the government shutdown's damaging optics, highlighting how they cherry-picked Epstein emails to redirect attention.

On Wednesday, Democrats on the House Oversight Committee released three of Epstein's emails, which mentioned President Donald Trump in some vague way.

They redacted the name of one of his victims, who is said to be Virginia Giuffre; now deceased, the woman at the center of the scandal involving the former Prince Andrew was formerly employed at Mar-a-Lago but had repeatedly avouched, during her life, that she never witnessed Trump at any events where misbehavior was going on.

Later on Wednesday, the GOP members of the Oversight Committee decided to call foul on the cherry-picking and released over 20,000 pages of documents that paint a fuller picture of what's long been known: Trump and Epstein knew each other and broke in the early 2000s. The unredacted documents also seem to confirm the redacted victim was Giuffre.

Democrats, of course, were not happy. But the party had a new theory: OK, maybe the person in the email consistently stated that Trump didn't do anything wrong, but what about the fact that Epstein said he spent Thanksgiving of 2017 with Trump?

In a post on X, they said that's exactly what the "[d]ocuments show," noting that, "At the time, Trump was already president, and Epstein was already a convicted sex offender."

. . .

And, as conservative operative Greg Price noted, it wasn't verified "because it's an easily disprovable lie and the attempts to connect President Trump to Epstein's crimes are a giant hoax."

. . .

The post has since been deleted, since the Democrats figured out the smoking gun turned out to be an exploding cigar. But the internet is forever, as is evidence of what Trump was doing on Thanksgiving in 2017:

One of the claims - now a deleted X post, the Democratic Party's official account stated, "NEW: Documents show Donald Trump spent Thanksgiving with Jeffrey Epstein in 2017. At the time, Trump was already president, and Epstein was already a convicted sex offender." 

Now deleted post. 

For very obvious reasons. 

What's clear is that the info war launched by Democrats was intended to paper over the terrible optics surrounding the government shutdown.

However, the pendulum is now swinging the other way... 

Trump has asked Bondi, DoJ, and FBI to investigate "investigate Jeffrey Epstein's involvement and relationship with Bill Clinton, Larry Summers, Reid Hoffman, J.P. Morgan, Chase, and many other people and institutions, to determine what was going on with them, and him." 

"Fatty at LinkedIn, Reid Hoffman" 

"This is another Russia, Russia, Russia Scam, with all arrows pointing to the Democrats," the president noted. 

It appears the Democratic Party's social media desk, likely staffed by inexperienced Gen-Z operatives, didn't bother to verify anything. However, competence was never the point; the objective was to plant a headline and let it do maximum damage before anyone could check the facts. That's the nature of information warfare. And now it looks like the Trump team is preparing to hit back.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 14:40

Economic Reacceleration: A Contrarian View

Economic Reacceleration: A Contrarian View

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Over the past two weeks, we’ve addressed a persistent question: if the data signals weakness, why hasn’t the recession arrived? In “Slowdown Signals: Are Leading Indicators Flashing Red?” we examined the cracks forming beneath the economy’s surface. From deteriorating leading indicators to credit stress and cooling employment metrics, the evidence supported a cautious stance. In the follow-up, “Promised Recession … So Where Is It?”, we explored the tension between these bearish signals and the market’s resilience. Economic risk has not disappeared, but the timeline for a downturn has stretched further than most expected.

Both articles’ tone was analytical but precise: the economy has not escaped danger. Leading economic indicators flash warning signs, from the Conference Board’s LEI to the ISM Manufacturing Index. Credit conditions remain tight with delinquencies on the rise, and employment trends, while stable on the surface, have started to weaken in rate-sensitive areas.

The consumer, long the backbone of the post-pandemic recovery, shows signs of fatigue. Excess savings have dwindled, credit card usage is climbing, and real wage gains have slowed. These are not signals of strength, but of late-cycle fragility.

Yet, despite these risks, the economy has not broken. The recession expected by most economists, strategists, and market commentators has yet to arrive. The S&P 500 continues to grind higher. Volatility remains muted. Consumer spending, while uneven, has not collapsed. And corporate earnings, though pressured in some sectors, have not cratered.

This divergence between bearish data and market behavior raises an important question: could the consensus be wrong? More specifically, what if the economy is not headed for contraction, but toward a renewed phase of expansion? That’s the contrarian view, an economic reacceleration, and it’s worth considering, not because it is guaranteed, but because few are prepared for it. In markets, surprises matter more than forecasts. If the surprise is upside growth, the implications for asset prices, portfolio strategy, and risk management could be substantial.

Let’s dig into it.

The Case for Economic Reacceleration

While consensus remains cautious, there is a case, however tenuous, for economic reacceleration. This isn’t about ignoring risks. It’s about acknowledging that conditions aligning could drive a shift from stagnation to renewed growth.

First, financial conditions have eased substantially since late last year. Despite the Fed maintaining higher policy rates, markets have pushed bond yields lower and credit spreads tighter. Equities have rallied, creating a wealth effect that supports consumption, at least within the top 10% of the population that owns 87% of the equity market. Furthermore, the top 40% of income earners currently account for 60% of total consumption.

Adding to that backdrop, the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index has turned increasingly accommodative, suggesting that monetary policy’s grip on the economy is slipping. This eases the burden on consumers and businesses, setting the stage for renewed activity.

Third, fiscal support remains more robust than many acknowledge. Federal spending continues at a high level, with infrastructure outlays and industrial policy subsidies supporting investment in energy, manufacturing, and technology. These initiatives feed directly into corporate capital expenditures. The AI investment boom is a clear example of spending accelerating not just in “big tech,” but across the industrial supply chain. UBS has flagged this emerging capex cycle as a significant tailwind for mid-cycle expansion, which could offset a slowdown in consumer spending.

Fourth, labor market dynamics are more stable than the headlines suggest. While job openings have declined, layoffs remain low. Real disposable income has started to recover, supported by moderating inflation. This income stability allows consumers to maintain spending despite rising debt levels. Goldman Sachs has emphasized that consumption trends, particularly in services, remain strong enough to support growth in the near term. In the economically weighted ISM surveys, services (70% of the economy) are keeping the composite index in expansion territory.

Finally, there is the issue of data distortion. In recent months, significant revisions have been made to payrolls and GDP. Preliminary reports painted a picture of sharp deceleration, only for final data to show much more resilience. Goldman has warned that headline data may be underestimating actual activity. If that’s true, the economy may not need to rebound; it may already be stronger than it appears. We also see improvement in the Economic Composite Index, which comprises more than 100 data points, including manufacturing, services, leading indicators, and other economic factors.

Combined, these factors do not guarantee a reacceleration but offer a plausible case. They suggest the economy may be more resilient, supported, and responsive to easing conditions than the bearish narrative implies.

Supporting the Bull Market: Earnings and Valuation

If reacceleration gains traction, it becomes a fundamental driver of earnings growth. That’s the critical link. The equity rally has run ahead of fundamentals in some sectors. Valuations, particularly in technology and discretionary names, are stretched. Without earnings growth, they cannot be sustained. However, an economic reacceleration changes that dynamic. A pickup in nominal GDP would lift revenues. Stabilizing costs and improving operating leverage could support margins. As top-line growth returns, analysts would raise forward earnings estimates.

As UBS notes, they expect stronger earnings growth going into 2026, supported by stronger economic growth.

This path is especially relevant given the current market structure. Much of this year’s performance has been driven by a handful of mega-cap names; therefore, a broader earnings recovery, driven by an economic reacceleration, would allow the rally to widen. This is the theory, at least, and as breadth improves, volatility drops, and price-to-earnings multiples become more sustainable.

However, as we have noted previously, we had booming economic growth in 2020 and 2021, but the earnings growth remained confined to the largest companies. As shown in the chart above, earnings growth for the 493 remained weak. However, the expectation is that an improvement in economic growth, but not strong growth, will somehow allow the bottom 493 stocks to generate earnings growth as the Capex cycle for artificial intelligence engages. Maybe that is the case, but it remains a risk to investors. Nonetheless, the hope is that the economic reacceleration thesis, not a call for explosive expansion, will allow for durability in the current cycle, allowing the earnings tailwind to extend the bull market further than most expect.

Final Thoughts

For us, risk management remains essential. The case for economic reacceleration is certainly plausible, but it is also based on much “hope.” Hope that consumers will continue to consume at a strong pace, that AI Capex will offset declining savings risk, and that earnings will continue to sustain themselves well above long-term growth trends indefinitely to support current valuations. That seems to be a significant risk.

While there is certainly risk that “hopes” are disappointed, as investors, we must consider the possibility that an economic reacceleration comes to fruition. Such could leave overly defensive investors underexposed to equities, creating significant opportunity costs. Currently, many investors remain positioned for stagnation or slow deterioration. While that positioning aligns with the data, the yield curve, and historical patterns, the markets rarely reward consensus thinking. If reacceleration unfolds, it will catch many investors with an underweighted risk exposure.

Positioning for this shift does not require full conviction. But it does require readiness. Watch leading indicators for signs of stabilization. Monitor earnings revisions and forward guidance. Track credit spreads and yield curve behavior. These are the tells.

The opportunity lies in being early but not reckless. If growth is turning, earnings will follow, and earnings ultimately sustain bull markets.

Just something to consider.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 14:20

Noem Awards TSA Staff $10,000 Bonuses For Working During Shutdown

Noem Awards TSA Staff $10,000 Bonuses For Working During Shutdown

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem handed out $10,000 bonus checks on Nov. 13 to thousands of frontline Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers who stayed on the job during the federal government shutdown.

About 47,000 agents who worked through the 43-day shutdown despite not getting paychecks will be awarded a bonus along with back pay, according to Noem.

“We are going to not only continue their paychecks like they should have received all along, but also they’re going to get a bonus check for stepping up, taking on extra shifts, for showing up each and every day, for serving the American people,” Noem said at a news conference at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston.

The officers were thanked for taking seriously every day the mission of the Department of Homeland Security, “and that’s keeping the American people safe while they go and commute across the country, and while they do their work and business and take care of their families,” Noem added.

A couple of the officers were singled out for their “exemplary” service and for taking on more hours and shifts during the shutdown.

“They were examples to the rest of the individuals that worked with them, and endured those hardships and continued to shine a light on what is special about America,” Noem said.

Noem added that she would be looking at all TSA officials who worked during the shutdown and would recognize their efforts with a bonus check to get them back on their feet.

She noted that TSA agents who missed work or called out sick were not necessarily exempt from receiving the bonus, saying that “people were not just inconvenienced but they were also damaged and harmed” by the government shutdown.

“What I’m so proud of today … is the outstanding patriotism and service of our TSA officers and officials that stepped up every single day,” Noem said.

She also recognized the public and private companies that stepped up during the shutdown.

“We still saw the best of America,” she added. “We saw people come together, support each other, take care of each other, and go above and beyond to make sure the mission of the Department of Homeland Security was fulfilled.”

The department worked late Wednesday night to complete administrative paperwork to start paying TSA agents the backpay they earned during the shutdown, Noem added.

TSA Precheck entry at San Diego International Airport on Oct. 26, 2024. Jane Yang/The Epoch Times

President Donald Trump Wednesday night signed a bill passed by Congress to fund the government until January, bringing an end to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

The Trump administration has implemented measures this year to help speed up TSA lanes in airports, including allowing passengers to leave their shoes on when going through the scanners.

The department also plans to implement veteran, military, and family lanes, according to Noem.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 13:40

Alibaba Falls After White House Memo Alleges Company Supports Chinese Military Targeting Of US

Alibaba Falls After White House Memo Alleges Company Supports Chinese Military Targeting Of US

Shares of Alibaba fell in New York around 1 p.m. EST after the Financial Times reported a White House national-security memo detailing newly declassified intelligence alleging the Chinese tech giant has been providing technological support to the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the military of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Republic of China (PRC).

The memo claims that Alibaba provides the PLA and PRC with access to customer data, including IP addresses, Wi-Fi information, payment records, and various AI-related services. It also alleges that employees transferred knowledge about zero-day vulnerabilities (software flaws that hackers can exploit) to the PLA.

Alibaba strongly denied the report, saying:

"The claims purportedly based on US intelligence that was leaked by your source are complete nonsense. This is plainly an attempt to manipulate public opinion and malign Alibaba."

Shares of BABA are down 2.3%.

The White House memo was drafted immediately after the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea last month, during which both leaders agreed to a temporary truce on trade restrictions. 

A US official confirmed to FT that the administration is actively working to mitigate risks posed by intrusions involving untrusted vendors. 

We can only wonder whether this posturing by the administration has anything to do with PRC state-sponsored hackers infiltrating U.S. telecommunications companies in an attack known as "Salt Typhoon" …

*Developing...

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 13:16

Iran's Elite IRGC Seizes Tanker In Strait Of Hormuz

Iran's Elite IRGC Seizes Tanker In Strait Of Hormuz

After a long period of relative quiet, the Strait of Hormuz is flaring up again as on Friday Iranian forces are reported to have seized a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker.

This is a first in a long time, but the Iranians are saying it is a somewhat 'routine' instance of intercepting a ship for "smuggling fuel", according to state IRNA. The Iranians are now claiming to be acting within the laws of the Islamic Republic.

Illustrative: Getty Images

But it was clearly an international vessel, with a US official and a private maritime risk group saying it was forcibly diverted into Iranian territorial waters as it made its way through the narrow strait.

International reports have identified the tanker as the Talara, en route from Ajman in the United Arab Emirates to Singapore when it was intercepted.

Further, British maritime risk firm Vanguard has described that the vessel was seized by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - which typically oversees such aggressive Iranian naval operations related to foreign vessels - and redirected toward Iranian waters.

Reports further say that three boats were observed approaching the Talara. Further AP reports that "A U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton drone had been circling above the area where the Talara was for hours on Friday observing the seizure," according to flight-tracking data.

Lloyd's List has written, "The vessel is owned by the Greece-based Coronis Family Group of Companies. The company has not responded to requests for comment."

The publication says, "Maritime security firm Ambrey issued a warning, saying that a Marshall Islands-flagged crude oil tanker that had previously been approached by three small boats while transiting southbound through the Strait of Hormuz was observed making a sudden course deviation at the same location."

Tensions have long been on edge in the region as Tehran has vowed retaliation for the prior June 12-day war, which saw Israel mount a surprise attack and the US bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 13:00

Boeing Union Workers Approve New Contract, Ending 3-Month Strike

Boeing Union Workers Approve New Contract, Ending 3-Month Strike

Authored by Victoria Friedman via The Epoch Times,

Thousands of Midwestern machinists who assemble military aircraft voted on Nov. 13 to accept a new contract with Boeing, bringing to an end three months of industrial action.

The workforce had been on strike since Aug. 4 over demands for better wages and work schedules.

District 837 of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) represents 3,200 machinists at facilities in St. Louis and St. Charles, Missouri, and Mascoutah, Illinois. Its members build and maintain the F-15, F/A-18, and advanced missile and defense systems for the U.S. military, according to the union.

In a statement, IAM District 837 thanked its bargaining committee for its efforts to negotiate a deal acceptable to members.

“We appreciate the unwavering support of our members, their families, the St. Louis community, our labor allies, and elected officials throughout this fight,” IAM District 837 said. “We’re proud of what our members have fought for together and are ready to get back to building the world’s most advanced military aircraft.”

Boeing confirmed in a statement that IAM 837 had ratified the new contract.

“We look forward to having our full team back at work,” Boeing said. “IAM 837-represented employees at all St. Louis-region sites are to report to work beginning with third shift on Nov. 16 at 11 p.m.”

Throughout negotiations, IAM District 837 had been calling for Boeing to agree to higher retirement plan contributions, stronger wage increases to keep up with inflation, and a larger ratification bonus, a one-time payment offered to union members after they vote to approve a new contract.

On Nov. 10, Boeing revised the proposed ratification bonus, increasing it from $3,000 to $6,000, but dropped the $1,000 annual retention bonus, which would have been paid yearly for four years. The rest of the offer was largely unchanged from earlier versions, which had been rejected by the union.

On Nov. 4, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) wrote to Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, urging the company to “negotiate in good faith” and “quickly reach an agreement that the IAM 837 machinists can afford to accept.”

Hawley congratulated the workers in a Nov. 13 post on X.

“Congratulations to the 3000+ Missouri workers who today secured a new and better contract with Boeing,” Hawley said. “For months they have stood strong, and today they’re getting the raise they and their families deserve.”

Christy Williams greets people at the voting check-in table, where International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union members picked up their ballot to vote on a negotiated tentative labor agreement that would end their strike against Boeing Defense St. Louis regional operations. in Maryland Heights, Mo., on Sept. 12, 2025. David Carson/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP

Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) said in a statement that he was “glad to see IAM District 837 and Boeing reach a fair agreement that gets our highly skilled workers back on the job.”

“These workers deserve wages and benefits that reflect the true value of their work, and this agreement is a major victory for them, their families, and the entire St. Louis region,” Bell said. “Boeing has long been a cornerstone of our region’s economic success, and that success has always depended on the talent and dedication of its workforce.”

F-15EX Delivery Delays

The strike by about 3,200 machinists at facilities in the Greater St. Louis area was smaller in scale than last year’s action by workers at Boeing’s commercial airplane division in Washington and Oregon, which saw 33,000 machinists walk out.

While smaller in scale, the action had an impact on the deliveries of F-15EX fighters to the U.S. Air Force.

Ahead of an Oct. 9 Senate Armed Services Committee hearing for the nomination of Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach as the Air Force’s chief of staff, the four-star general said in submitted comments that delivery of the second lot of aircraft for the F-15EX program is “delayed due to the ongoing Boeing strikes with six of 12 F-15EX delivered to date.”

“These delays will impact F-15EX operations at Portland [Air National Guard Base],” as well as initial delays to deliveries of the third lot of aircraft overseas in 2026, said Wilsbach, who has since been confirmed and sworn in as 24th Air Force chief of staff. “While later than initially planned, aircraft deliveries and program milestone dates remain within the program’s acquisition baseline.”

Next-Generation Fighter Craft

On March 21, President Donald Trump announced that Boeing had been awarded the $20 billion contract to build the U.S. Air Force’s next-generation stealth fighter jet, designated the F-47.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said on Sept. 22 that the first of the craft should be ready to fly by 2028.

An artist rendering of the Air Force’s sixth-generation fighter, the F-47. Courtesy of the U.S. Air Force

The F-47—previously known as the Next-Generation Air Dominance platform—is envisioned to replace the F-22 Raptor as the centerpiece of the United States’ future air superiority fleet.

The program was briefly paused under the Biden administration but was revived under Trump.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 12:20

Operation Affordability: Trump Prepares Tariff Cuts, Trade Deals To Lower Food Prices Ahead Of Midterms 

Operation Affordability: Trump Prepares Tariff Cuts, Trade Deals To Lower Food Prices Ahead Of Midterms 

President Trump's Operation Affordability initiative kicked off this week, with the White House unveiling plans for tariff reductions and expanded trade ties with Latin American countries to boost imports of key food products. The goal: drive down supermarket prices ahead of the 2026 midterm election cycle to reverse darkening sentiment among low- and middle-income consumers.

Bloomberg reports that Trump is set to slash import levies on everyday staples, such as beef, bananas, and coffee, while moving ahead with new trade frameworks with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador. 

On Tuesday, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both revealed on corporate media major moves by the administration to reduce costs for Americans when it comes to food. Trump called the effort "surgical and beautiful," while Bessent said the effort will bring down prices "very quickly" and predicted that "people would start feeling better about the economy in the first half of 2026."

UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, describe President Trump's economy as "a big bet on AI and upper-income households."

Pingle noted the bifurcated consumer environment between higher-income and lower-income households in this chart.

The analyst also pointed out, "Our base case is that an equity market drawdown is avoided. Households suffer for the next two quarters."

He expects a $55 billion boost to disposable income in 2Q 2026 from retroactive tax relief in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

He said these "bumper refunds" should temporarily revive household spending in mid-2026, which is just in time for the midterm election cycle.

So Bessent is likely right that consumer sentiment will begin improving in the coming months, and this reversal is crucial. If these sentiment gauges fail to reverse, some folks may be drawn toward the newly transformed Democratic Party, now heavily influenced by Marxist-aligned DSA agenda, who aim to squander America's inheritance by dangling "free stuff" to voters.

The way to ensure the Marxist revolution stops dead in its tracks is to tackle the affordability crisis, a lingering disaster left over from the Biden-Harris years. 

The New York Times reported that updated "reciprocal tariff" rules will include carve-outs for beef and citrus, expanding on a prior executive order directing agencies to identify products not grown domestically for exemption.

New agreements with Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador are reducing tariffs on products like bananas and coffee beans, which the U.S. imports but doesn't produce domestically. These frameworks should be finalized by the end of the month. 

Operation Affordability will target low- and middle-income households as well as younger voters, including Gen Z and millennials. The administration's strategy is to improve sentiment and restore affordability, with the hope that these folks will vote "America First", rather than embrace unhinged left dangling free bus rides and government-run grocery stores, in next year's midterm elections.

It's always the ones insisting they're "not crazy" who end up being the real nutjobs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 10:20

Pages