In Charts: The Rise And Fall Of The Thanksgiving Turkey

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Americans will eat nearly 30 million turkeys this Thanksgiving, the National Turkey Federation estimates.

A flock of white turkeys in a shelter as part of an effort to prevent exposure to avian influenza on a farm in Townsend, Del., on Nov. 14, 2022. Nathan Howard/Getty Images

That’s almost as many turkeys as there are people in Texas, the country’s second most populous state.

Although turkey continues to take center stage on the Thanksgiving table, American turkey farmers are challenged this holiday season by a drop in demand, accompanied by ongoing outbreaks of bird flu, which disrupts supplies, drives up prices, and threatens farm livelihoods.

Rise and Fall of Turkey in America

Turkey consumption in the United States has followed an arc over the past century, driven by agricultural, technological and health trends.

According to the USDA Economic Research Service, the average person in the United States ate less than three pounds of turkey a year in the 1930s and 1940s. By 1960, that number had doubled, as producers introduced specialized bird breeds that yielded more meat.

Advances in production and the introduction of processed products such as luncheon meats, ground turkey, and deli items drove turkey’s popularity in the 1980s. Marketing campaigns promoted the bird as a healthy, low-fat meat.

Annual turkey consumption rose from an average of about 10 pounds per person in 1980, to a peak of 18 pounds per person in 1996.

Since that time, however, consumers have been steadily eating less turkey. In 2025, average turkey consumption is projected to be just over 13 pounds per person, a nearly 40 year low.

In total, the USDA projects 4.5 billion pounds of turkey will be eaten in 2025—the lowest amount since 1990, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

The USDA estimates 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025, the lowest number in 40 years. This is the second consecutive annual decline, with production falling about 3 percent from 2024 and around 11 percent from 2023.

The 30 million turkeys Americans will eat this Thanksgiving  represents 15 percent of the total number of turkeys raised in the United States this year. It also represents a 35 percent drop from the 46 million turkeys consumed during the Thanksgiving holiday in 2016, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

While health-conscious consumers and dieters propelled turkey’s rise, health concerns about processed foods are now one factor causing turkey consumption to drop.

Consumers are “steering a bit away from highly processed meat,” Heidi Diestel told The Epoch Times. Diestel’s family has raised turkeys in Sonora, California, for four generations.

Bird Flu

Since February 2022, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)—also known as bird flu—has resulted in the death of almost 21 million turkeys, or about one-tenth of the current U.S. turkey flock.

The wave of infections continued in November; the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service confirmed eight turkey operations were affected in Michigan, North Dakota, and South Dakota, impacting 431,300 birds.

Farmers are also taking a hit from Avian respiratory virus, or aMPV—an upper respiratory tract viral infection that affects all types of poultry but is most harmful to turkeys.

HPAI is nearly 100 percent fatal to exposed birds, according to former National Turkey Federation chairman John Zimmerman. Although its symptoms are generally milder, aMPV is equally devastating.

Packages of turkey under Amazon’s private-label Amazon Saver brand are displayed at an Amazon Fresh grocery store in Federal Way, Wash., on Dec. 12, 2024. The National Turkey Federation estimates that Americans will eat nearly 30 million turkeys this Thanksgiving. David Ryder/Getty Images

In addition to the flocks impacted by HPAI, an estimated 60 percent to 80 percent of turkey flocks were affected by aMPV in 2024, according to Zimmerman, a Minnesota turkey farmer, who testified before the House Agriculture Committee in March.

The highly contagious respiratory illness is also known as turkey rhinotracheitis, or swollen head syndrome. It’s responsible for high death rates in commercial flocks and reduces egg production in breeder stock.

“Together, these two respiratory viruses have exponentially increased volatility, supply shortages and market uncertainty,” Zimmerman said.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu, present in wild birds worldwide and primarily responsible for HPAI outbreaks in U.S. domestic birds and dairy cattle, originated in Guangdong, China.

From its first outbreak in 1996, it spread across Asia to Africa, Europe, and then to the United States. The first U.S. case was detected in early 2022, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Known for infecting cattle and ravaging poultry flocks, the virus is also feared for its potential to infect humans. Worldwide, since 2003, more than 890 human H5N1 infections have been reported in 23 countries, according to the CDC’s September update.

In the United States, the CDC has reported 71 cases of human H5N1 infection since 2024, including one death in Louisiana in January.

On Nov. 14,  Washington state’s health department confirmed the nation’s first human case of the H5N5 strain of HPAI.

Milk samples await testing at the Cornell Teaching Dairy Barn at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y., on Dec. 11, 2024. U.S. turkey farmers face falling demand amid ongoing bird flu outbreaks that disrupt supply, raise prices, and threaten livelihoods. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images Turkey Prices

The USDA recently projected that wholesale prices for frozen whole turkey hens will reach $1.32 per pound in 2025. That’s a 40 percent increase from 2024’s price of 94 cents per pound.

“The 2025 rise in price is a response to lower production with HPAI pressures combined with steady demand,” according to a report from the American Farm Bureau Federation.

Despite this year’s jump in turkey wholesale prices, economist Bernt Nelson noted in the report that “prices are still 32 percent lower than just three years ago.”

The most recent USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data show the average per-pound feature price for whole frozen turkeys decreased during the second week of November.

“It’s encouraging to see some relief in the price of turkeys, as it is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” Farm Bureau economist Faith Parum said in a Nov. 19 news release.

Total cash receipts from turkeys in 2025 are forecast at $4.8 billion in the USDA’s September projection. This represents a 30.6 percent increase over turkey receipts of $3.7 billion in 2024, yet it remains 33.3 percent lower than the peak of $7.12 billion in 2022, when the current HPAI outbreak began.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 10:30

What It Takes To Be Rich In Europe

The income threshold for being considered rich in Europe varies considerably from country to country.

In Luxembourg, wealth begins for a three-person household with an annual net income of 175,000€, while in Turkey, even less than 20,000€ is enough to cross the threshold (higher pane below).

Germany ranks in the upper mid-range. 

It is also interesting to see how the figures change after adjustment for the cost of living (lower pane below).

Source: Voronoiapp.com

Although the gap remains, the income differences even out when you take into account what the income can actually buy locally. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 07:35

Brussels' Internet Neo-Feudalism: Sledgehammer Or Stiletto?

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The European Commission is relentlessly advancing its project to subjugate independent media. Beyond classic censorship, sophisticated technologies like algorithmic search control are being deployed. Alternative outlets such as Tichys Einblick are thus increasingly blocked from public reach. The republican spirit is quietly dying.

In recent months, there has been intense debate over Brussels’ dangerously anti-civilizational tendencies and its growing obsession with control. It is telling that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen herself has highlighted the stark contrast between the EU citizen’s impotence and a bureaucracy operating with ever fewer limits.

Currently, Brussels is pulling every lever to scrutinize private chats via invasive algorithmic mechanisms, restricting and censoring public communication across digital and social media. Meanwhile, von der Leyen has refused transparency in the Pfizer vaccine scandal.

This behavior can only be described as neo-feudal and post-Enlightenment. Where else in the world do sovereign nations allow their governments to spider-web their own repressive bureaucracies across member states—except in EU-Europe?

London as a Dark Lab 

Anyone wanting a glimpse into Brussels’ current trajectory should look to London. Since Brexit, the UK has served as a kind of laboratory for the EU’s centralizing project.

Several years ahead, Britain has enacted some of the harshest censorship laws in the (still) free world. Authorities are no longer focused on uncovering Islamist plots, dismantling rape gangs, or implementing a necessary remigration process to preserve English culture.

No—the state’s attention now targets opposition activity. Leveraging the broad definitions of “hate” and “incitement” online, thousands of law-abiding citizens have been raided and arrested simply for criticizing migration policy or urban chaos.

Under the deceptively benign Communications Act and Malicious Communications Act, the British executive now makes over 30 politically motivated arrests per day for online posts deemed offensive or threatening by authorities—a direct assault on citizen liberties in the birthplace of liberalism.

The Algo-Filter 

A similar approach is envisioned by the EU Commission and its loyal satellite capitals. It serves as the center, the guiding spirit of this policy. As political opposition rises—from Germany’s AfD to right-conservative forces in the Netherlands, Czechia, and Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary—the narrative foundation for climate socialism and open-border policies risks dissolving in public perception.

Through ever-expanding definitions of “hate and incitement,” framed as shields to immunize social developments—Islamization, economic decline due to Brussels’ growing centralism, or urban decay—from critique, the EU attempts to crush a resurgent conservative bloc before it can form.

This tendency was already noted in February by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance during his Munich Security Conference speech. According to Vance, the partnership with the EU is at stake if this institutionalized attack on free speech is not firmly blocked.

Enter the Stiletto

To avoid international scrutiny, Brussels also employs a second strategy: the stiletto—finer but equally effective. At the center of censorship remains Google’s dominant search algorithm, where control operates occultly, invisible to the average internet user.

Under the euphemism European Democracy Shield, a practice has emerged of monitoring online content and politically defining “disinformation” to cleanse the digital space. The EU funds allegedly independent fact-checkers who alert national authorities to supposed hate speech, triggering legal actions.

It is a malicious intimidation apparatus. Erich Mielke could not have orchestrated it better.

Submission to EU Dictates 

For Google, this architecture effectively forces submission to the EU regime: content rated positively by EU-accredited fact-checkers is prioritized, while alternative publications—like Tichys Einblick, Apollo News, NIUS, or Junge Freiheit—are algorithmically demoted. This occurs even when posts generate substantial traffic that would normally place them at the top of search results.

What happens when media discourse is pressed into a state corset? Power shifts from the sovereign to a limitless, invasive political elite that—particularly in the EU—can advance its eco-socialist project farther than ever conceivable under normal conditions.

A broadly informed, critically awake society would never have allowed entire populations to be driven into unemployment and poverty under the destructive dictates of man-made climate alarmism. Nor would open-border policies have persisted in the face of Europe’s visible Islamization, threatening social security systems and the cultural ferment of the continent.

Trump Ended the Censorship 

In the United States, this practice ended with President Donald Trump’s election. As a result, people using VPNs navigate a completely different news environment from those unaware of such manipulations.

Through this, the EU controls public discourse and seeks to reduce the spectrum of opinion into an EU-compatible monologue. It mirrors the so-called Tal der Ahnungslosen (Valley of the Clueless) during the GDR era, where people around Dresden had no access to West German TV and believed in socialism’s blessings.

If von der Leyen and her commission are not stopped in institutionalizing this regime EU-wide, freedom will vanish. Public discourse will be silenced. The iron cloak of dictatorial lethargy will descend over EU-Europe. What we observe in the UK now threatens EU citizens.

The Snake Bites Its Own Tail 

So, to answer the opening question: is the EU wielding a sledgehammer or a stiletto in its censorship campaign? Both tools are used simultaneously in the fight for interpretive dominance online. If the right-conservative opposition does not intervene in time, public debate will be brutally stifled.

New cryptographic communication methods may emerge to preserve rudimentary free speech—until Brussels’ own arrogance strangles it. The cynical consequence: people will self-censor even in private, cultivating a climate of mutual distrust. This is utterly condemnable.

Add in the digital control euro, and the picture becomes clearer. An institution that dictates both public discourse and citizen transactions is a dictatorship. In Europe, it is an eco-socialist dictatorship, economically so weak that we can hope both attacks on freedom will literally starve mid-course.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/23/2025 - 07:00

Is Global Technocracy Inevitable Or Dangerously Delusional?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

The bewildering truth behind human technological enslavement is that it is impossible without the voluntary participation of the intended slaves. People must welcome technocracy into their lives in order for it to succeed. The populace has to believe, blindly, that they cannot live without it, or that authoritarianism by algorithmic consensus is “inevitable.”

For example, the average person living in a first world economy voluntarily carries a cell phone everywhere they go at all times without fail. To be without it, in their minds, is to be naked, at risk, unprepared and disconnected from civilization. I grew up in the 1980s and we did just fine without having a phone on our hip every moment of the day. Even now, I refuse to carry one.

Why? First, as most people should be aware of by now (the Edward Snowden revelations left no doubt), a cell phone is a perfect technocratic device. It has multilayered tracking, using GPS, WiFi routers, and cell tower triangulation to track your every step. Not only that, but it can be used to record your daily patterns, your habits, who your friends are, where you were on any given day many months or years ago.

Then there’s the backdoor functions hidden in app software that allows governments and corporations to to access your cell’s microphone and camera, even when you think the device is shut off. The private details of your life could be recorded and collated. In a world where privacy is being declared “dead” by boasting technocrats, why help them out by carrying something that listens to everything you say and chronicles everything you do?

Globalists often openly admit that the dynamic of global tracking and the end of anonymity is about willful participation. In a 2023 Swiss TV interview former head of the WEF, Klaus Schwab, made this statement:

Schwab was discussing his vision of the “new world” and the sacrifices people will have to make to live within it. I would point out that he says “YOU will have to accept total transparency…” not “WE will have to accept total transparency…” He’s not including the elites in his futurist ideal of total surveillance.

Michael F. Neidorff, then-Chairman and CEO of Centene Corporation (a major US health insurer), during a 2017 World Economic Forum (WEF) session in Davos titled “What If: Privacy Becomes a Luxury Good?” asserted that:

“By definition you give up privacy by being involved in something. Big data can be incredibly beneficial, but the fact that it is not anonymised is where the problem emerges…”

The globalist concept of the end of privacy is expanded upon in WEF member Ida Auken’s essay titled: “Welcome to 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better.” Her paper is the quintessential technocratic propaganda narrative – Similar to the narratives of Soviet futurists early in the Cold War, the elites often lure the public into participation in technocracy by promising them a life of infinite wealth and ease. “One day soon…” they say, “…our technology is going to erase labor, the need for money and the wealth gap.”

That is to say, they all promise the same bullshit about how you won’t have to work, your time will be free and owning property will become superfluous because everything will be handed to you for nothing. Of course, the trade-off is that your life will become an open book for the people in power and your very survival will be completely dependent on their whims. Step out of line, and they can easily push a button and end your existence as you know it.

Every aspect of technocracy requires ever growing dependency, but also a certain level of faith; faith that the technocrats are smarter than you and have your best interests at heart. Most people don’t have that kind of faith in other people, especially government bureaucrats and corporate CEOs. However, I have noticed an unsettling trend of blind faith in Artificial Intelligence.

After all, algorithms are the ultimate objective source, are they not? They have no emotions, so how could they suffer from bias?

Ah, and there’s the big con. As I’ve said for many years now, AI is so overrated it’s mind boggling. The amount of electrical power and human capital being invested into AI is already immense and even more resources will be required for these systems to continue “evolving”. And yet, no AI has EVER invented anything new without extensive human input at every level. AI does not create autonomously and I question if it ever will.

Why are we pumping so many resources into something that really is nothing more than a glorified search engine? Don’t get me wrong, I realize that AI has great potential as a tool for development. It certainly makes things easier for research and for speeding up projects, but it’s not intuitive and it’s often wrong.

I’ve used apps like ChatGPT and Grok on occasion to find obscure sources for data and quotes, but you already have to know what you’re looking for in order to do this. Every app has lied to me at times, giving false information and unprompted propaganda (Grok at least admits it can provide biased content or admits it was wrong when cornered by conflicting data).

But once again, AI cannot mislead you unless you participate in the delusion that AI in infallible. Sadly, too many people are stumbling into this trap. I see people constantly quote AI without checking sources. They use AI as the source, and this is what globalists want.

If the majority of people on the planet start using AI as the academic or philosophical default, then the globalists win. Every person will get the same answers, which will be programmed by the powers-that-be, and even if those answers are wrong they will be considered correct because no one will have contrary information.

I explored this problem last year in my article “Three Horrifying Consequences Of AI That You Might Not Have Thought About.” Again, participation is the key to enslavement. The human laziness factor is, in a way, giving AI permission to rule over us.

I was recently watching a discussion with Elon Musk at the Saudi Investment Forum launched as an extension of the Saudi 2030 Agenda (it’s basically all the same people as the World Government Summit in Dubai), as well as his comments at the recent Tesla shareholder’s meeting. Musk argued that:

“Long term, the AI is going to be in charge, to be totally frank, not humans… If artificial intelligence vastly exceeds the sum of human intelligence, it is difficult to imagine that any humans will actually be in charge. So we just need to make sure that AI is friendly…”

He also expounded on a rather Utopian vision of the next couple decades (as all futurists do), predicting a world without work, without scarcity and without most human struggles we are accustomed to. It’s a very similar vision sold to the public by elites and corporate moguls predicting a 15 hour work week during the First Industrial Revolution. Musk’s ideal is only different in that he calls for a benevolent AI trained by libertarians rather than an overlord AI trained by globalists.

Bottom line: AI will only “be in charge” if the populace allows it to be in charge. We can shut it all down anytime we like. You can pull your cell phone out of your pocket right now and throw it away, cutting down your digital footprint and becoming virtually invisible compared to yesterday. By extension, society as a whole can say no to AI governance. The question is, will we?

I’ll give Musk the benefit of the doubt for now that he wants AI for good, but I can’t help but point out that the collectivist ideal is always floated on the promise of economic Elysium. The world of ease Musk imagines will probably never exist. I think the system would collapse first.

That is to say, technocracy will be attempted but it will implode when it is discovered that AI is not a miracle drug and that the benefits do not outweigh the loss of freedoms the digital gulag requires. Laziness only works as an opiate for the masses when it does not result in pain. Pain creates motivation, and motivation leads to rebellion.

Furthermore, the energy resources we have right now are in no way capable of fueling the kind of AI renaissance the elites want. Even Musk admits that energy is the ultimate bottleneck and that a 50% to 100% increase in output worldwide would be needed to power future AI development. Alternative estimates call for a 300% increase in energy output.

No large-population country in the world including the US has the kind of grid needed to allow every citizen to own and operate an electric car. Imagine the amount of power required to to employ millions upon millions of AI run robots and machines to take the place of human laborers?

Typical green energy is not going to do this, it’s highly inefficient. Only a vast expansion of nuclear power might do the trick (or fusion if they ever get it right). The economic cost would be unprecedented (hundreds of trillions of dollars). The labor required to generate that kind of energy wealth would mean MORE work for humanity, not less. Meaning more struggle, more anger, and a greater chance of societal breakdown.

I have a lot of problems with futurists, but one thing that bothers me the most is their habit of ignoring the human factor in their technocratic theories. AI running the world is not inevitable, it is contingent on voluntary human compliance, just as everything about technocracy relies on human compliance.

I’m not saying we should be “anti-technology”, just that we can and must be masters of technology. We determine the future, not AI. Technology is peripheral and ultimately irrelevant in comparison to the human experience. If a piece of tech doesn’t actually make our lives better and more free and instead makes our existence a misery, then it should be turned to ashes along with the globalist institutions that demand we “own nothing and be happy.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 23:20

These Are The Cities Americans Are Moving To

As migration patterns shift across the U.S., some cities are emerging as magnets for new residents. A combination of affordability, climate, and job opportunities continues to draw people to the South and West.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, highlights where Americans are choosing to move, based on new residency data from 2024 compiled by Point2Homes.

Sun Belt Cities Dominate the Rankings

Las Vegas stands out with the highest share of newcomers from other states at 33%. Mesa, Arizona (30%), and Colorado Springs, Colorado (30%) follow closely, reflecting the continued appeal of the Sun Belt. Affordable housing, favorable tax environments, and strong employment in sectors like logistics and construction make these cities attractive to many Americans.

Rank City New residents in 2024 Share from out of state 1 New York, NY 702,239 20% 2 Los Angeles, CA 371,154 13% 3 Houston, TX 355,915 12% 4 Chicago, IL 329,189 21% 5 San Antonio, TX 264,464 13% 6 Phoenix, AZ 227,814 18% 7 Austin, TX 194,566 14% 8 Philadelphia, PA 193,315 22% 9 Dallas, TX 185,894 16% 10 San Diego, CA 176,790 19% 11 Columbus, OH 168,336 16% 12 Jacksonville, FL 156,514 17% 13 Seattle, WA 153,010 27% 14 Fort Worth, TX 141,316 15% 15 Charlotte, NC 133,366 26% 16 Nashville, TN 124,427 26% 17 Denver, CO 120,430 22% 18 San Francisco, CA 116,055 16% 19 Indianapolis, IN 110,523 15% 20 Boston, MA 110,165 28% 21 Oklahoma City, OK 105,814 21% 22 Atlanta, GA 103,432 23% 23 Tucson, AZ 101,549 19% 24 Portland, OR 92,250 26% 25 San Jose, CA 90,440 11% 26 Raleigh, NC 85,838 15% 27 Colorado Springs, CO 84,594 30% 28 Detroit, MI 81,239 7% 29 Milwaukee, WI 81,169 14% 30 Las Vegas, NV 80,024 33% 31 Minneapolis, MN 79,346 16% 32 Louisville, KY 78,571 14% 33 Albuquerque, NM 76,481 19% 34 Memphis, TN 76,188 18% 35 Omaha, NE 74,190 24% 36 Baltimore, MD 73,830 19% 37 Mesa, AZ 70,216 30% 38 Kansas City, MO 69,669 25% 39 Orlando, FL 69,634 9% 40 Fresno, CA 67,275 4% Big Cities Still Draw the Most Movers

Despite slower growth, America’s largest metros continue to see huge inflows.

New York City tops the list with more than 702,000 new residents in 2024, even though only 20% came from out of state.

Los Angeles (371,000) and Houston (356,000) also remain top destinations, driven by work opportunities and cultural influence.

Regional Trends Reveal Shifting Appeal

Texas dominates the top 10 with four cities—Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas—all drawing strong inflows.

Meanwhile, colder cities like Minneapolis and Detroit show much lower out-of-state shares, suggesting domestic migration continues to favor warmer climates and lower costs of living.

Coastal cities such as Seattle (27%) and Boston (28%) still attract significant out-of-state movement, likely reflecting their robust job markets.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Visualizing the Cost of the American Dream on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 22:45

Central Bankers Disagree About Gold

Authored by Vincent Cook via The Mises Institute,

With the fiat US dollar price of gold multiplied 2.6x since October of 2022 (as of October 20, 2025 when this was written) and rising exponentially (Figure 1), some people are deeply worried that something is seriously wrong with the dollar and with the global financial system generally. Is the soaring price of gold a sign of monetary instability? Or is it just a transitory “nothingburger”?

Figure 1: Gold spot price per troy ounce, most recent five years

Central bankers are now being asked such awkward questions, and they are giving sharply divergent answers. During a Q&A session at a convention of business economists on October 14, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell responded:

EMILY KOLINSKI MORRIS: You used the term gold standard. And you didn’t mean it in this context that I’m going to pivot here, because there’s a question from the audience that’s getting a lot of upvotes. So, one of your predecessors, Alan Greenspan, used to view the price of gold as an indicator of inflation risk. So, in that context, how do you view the rally that we’ve seen in gold? And if you want to throw in Bitcoin, you can comment on that too.

JEROME POWELL: I’m not going to comment on any particular asset price, including that one. And I think we think of inflation as driven by fundamental supply and demand factors. And it’s not something we look at actively.

Powell is saying that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which tries to fix the quantity of dollars in existence, allegedly doesn’t care about the price of gold in particular because it views gold’s price as just one price among a vast array of prices that informs their decision-making. According to this view, gold is just another commodity which makes only a small, insignificant contribution to the overall demand for dollars and has no impact on the supply of dollars.

During the October 19 broadcast of CBS’s Face the Nation, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gave a startlingly different answer:

MARGARET BRENNAN: So you have also said recently that you think investors have begun to question whether the dollar would still warrant its status as the ultimate safe haven currency. I mean, the American dollar is one of the strongest weapons, frankly, that the administration has to use. Do you think that it is the rise of cryptocurrency that is most threatening to that or why are you worried?

CHRISTINE LAGARDE: I see signs that the attraction of the dollar is slightly eroded, and future will tell whether there is more erosion of that. But when you look at the rise of cryptos, number one, when you look at the price of gold. Gold is typically, in any situation, the ultimate destination for safe haven. Price of gold has increased by more than 50% since the beginning of the year. --

MARGARET BRENNAN: -- So people are worried. --

CHRISTINE LAGARDE: -- That’s a clear sign that the trust in the reserve currency that the dollar has been, is and will continue to be, is eroding a bit. In addition to that, we’ve seen capital flows outside of the U.S. towards other destinations, including Europe. So, you know, for a currency to be really trusted you need a few things. You need geopolitical credibility. You need the rule of law and strong institutions. And you need, I would call it, a military force that is strong enough. I think on at least one and possibly two accounts, the U.S. is still in a very dominant position, but it needs to be very careful because those positions erode over the course of time. We’ve seen it with the Sterling Pound, you know, way back after, after the war. But it happens gently, gently, you don’t notice it and then it happens suddenly. And we are seeing intriguing signs of it, which is why I think that having a strong institution with the Fed, for instance, is important. Having a credible environment within which to trade is important. So volatility, uncertainty, to the extent it is fueled by the administration, is not helpful to the dollar.

While Lagarde seems to agree with Powell that cryptotokens are not that important, gold is profoundly different. For her, gold is the “ultimate destination for safe haven” and the rise of its dollar price is a sign that “trust in the reserve currency” of the world is eroding. According to Lagarde, trust in a currency requires geopolitical credibility, a rule of law, strong institutions, and a strong military. Trust is something that can disappear suddenly and, without it, gold is the haven that the world turns to.

As an empirical matter, gold is still critically important as a part of the official reserves that central banks and governments use to prop up the purchasing power of their fiat currencies when needed. In fact, reported official reserve holdings of gold now exceed those of US Treasury securities, the first time that has happened since 1996. Lagarde seems to be correct (at least to the extent one can believe official Reserve statistics) that trust in the dollar is slipping away in favor of gold, at least among her central banking peers.

More importantly, economic theory and a common sense understanding of economic history favors Lagarde’s views over Powell’s. The fundamentals of monetary supply and demand are well described in chapter 11 of Murray Rothbard’s Man, Economy, and State. While a government can often use its tax codes and regulations to compel domestic use of its own currency, it can’t effectively prevent its citizens from holding other highly-marketable assets (what Rothbard calls a quasi-money) as substitutes for holding cash balances as a reserve for their future purchases, nor can it always compel foreigners to use its currency to settle international transactions (though, as Lagarde noted, superior military strength might sometimes enable it to do so).

The anticipated future purchasing power of money (PPM) is always an issue because the utility of money depends entirely upon subjective anticipations that it can be exchanged for a sufficient quantity of other goods whenever desired. In the case of constantly-depreciating fiat monies like the US dollar, the use of short-term US Treasury securities as a quasi-money reserve asset makes the dollar itself acceptable overseas because Treasuries can be readily exchanged for dollars whenever needed, and because interest payments on Treasuries reduce the costs associated with on-going dollar PPM declines.

Trust in the issuer of a fiat global reserve currency is always a challenge because foreigners have to depend upon the ability and willingness of the issuer to honor its obligations (e.g., US Treasury securities) to pay sufficient interest on those obligations to offset PPM declines sufficiently, and to keep its markets open to imports so that foreigners can earn enough revenues denominated in the reserve currency to purchase and accumulate those obligations.

If the issuer gets in a fiscal jam and can’t or won’t pay enough interest to compensate for PPM declines (which themselves are often closely linked to using fiat money creation to deal with fiscal problems), or gets in the habit of selectively reneging on its obligations to particular foreigners it doesn’t like, or starts closing its markets to foreign exporters or foreign investors, the crutch of using interest-bearing debt as a quasi-money to shield foreign users of the currency against PPM declines no longer works. In that case, foreigners will be obliged to find some other reserve that does work.

What does always work is a quasi-money that isn’t someone else’s liability and isn’t denominated in terms of someone else’s fiat currency or propped up by reserves of someone else’s fiat currency, namely, gold. Gold is a natural substance that doesn’t require trust in other governments or even trust in the behavior of gold miners (who can at most add only a small percentage annually to the total stock of gold in existence). Gold doesn’t lose its real purchasing power over the long run like fiat-denominated assets do; it has lower storage and transaction costs than other highly marketable natural commodities and doesn’t have the technological vulnerabilities and limitations of artificial commodities like cryptotokens.

While it is a matter of entrepreneurial judgment and not economic theory to affirm gold’s superiority as the ultimate “store of value” and potentially even as the preferred replacement for fiat monies (though silver has often been a strong competitor to gold for the latter role), I must agree with Lagarde’s assessment of the empirical facts concerning reserve asset competition, not with Powell’s dismissive attitude about gold—when the chips are down and the world is forced to turn to an unconditionally trustworthy reserve of purchasing power, the world will turn to gold. What soaring gold prices might indicate is that the world is now turning to gold.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 22:10

US To Launch "New Phase" Of Venezuela Operations, Options Include Overthrowing Maduro: Report

One day after the FAA issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM), or an alert notifying pilots of potential serious hazards in certain airspace, for the Maiquetía Flight Information Region above Venezula, Reuters reported that the US is poised to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days, citing four U.S. officials.

Amid a sharp escalation of pressure by the Trump administration on President Nicolas Maduro's government, including proliferating reports of looming action as the US military deployed forces to the Caribbean amid worsening relations with Venezuela, two of the sources said covert operations would likely be the first part of the new action against Maduro, while two US officials told Reuters the options under consideration included attempting to overthrow Maduro.

A senior administration official on Saturday told Reuters that nothing had been ruled out regarding Venezuela.

"President Trump is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible to justice," said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Before the Reuters report, six airlines had already cancelled flights to Venezuela on Saturday after the US aviation regulator warned major airlines of dangers from "heightened military activity" amid a major buildup of American forces in the region, as well as a "potentially hazardous situation" when flying over Venezuela and urged them to exercise caution.

Spain's Iberia, Portugal's TAP, Chile's LATAM, Colombia's Avianca, Brazil's GOL and Trinidad and Tobago's Caribbean have suspended their flights to the country, said Marisela de Loaiza, president of the Venezuelan Airlines Association (ALAV). Panama's Copa Airlines, Spain's Air Europa and PlusUltra, Turkish Airlines, and Venezuela's LASER are continuing to operate flights for now.

The Trump administration has been weighing Venezuela-related options to combat what it has portrayed as Maduro’s role in supplying illegal drugs that have killed Americans. He has denied having any links to the illegal drug trade. 

Maduro, under whose rule Venezuela has experienced crushing hyperinflation and a collapse in its oil production sector amid staggering corruption, has contended that Trump seeks to oust him and that Venezuelan citizens and the military will resist any such attempt. He also has characterized U.S. actions as an effort to take control of Venezuela's oil.

A military buildup in the Caribbean has been underway for months, and Trump has authorized covert CIA operations in Venezuela.

The United States plans on Monday to designate the Cartel de los Soles a foreign terrorist organization for its alleged role in importing illegal drugs into the United States, officials said. The Trump administration has accused Maduro of leading Cartel de los Soles, which he denies.

Washington in August doubled its reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest to $50 million. But U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said last week that the terrorist designation "brings a whole bunch of new options to the United States."

Trump has said the upcoming designation would allow the United States to strike Maduro's assets and infrastructure in Venezuela, but he also has indicated a willingness to potentially pursue talks in hopes of a diplomatic solution.

Maduro said earlier this week that the countries' differences should be resolved through diplomacy and that he is willing to hold face-to-face talks with anyone interested. Two U.S. officials acknowledged conversations between Caracas and Washington. It was unclear whether those conversations could impact the timing or scale of potential U.S. operations.

The U.S. Navy's largest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, arrived in the Caribbean on November 16 with its strike group, joining at least seven other warships, a nuclear submarine and F-35 aircraft.

U.S. forces in the region so far have focused on counter-narcotics operations, even though the assembled firepower far outweighs anything needed for them. U.S. troops since September have carried out at least 21 strikes on alleged drug boats, killing at least 83 people, mostly in the Caribbean, although vessels in the Pacific Ocean also have been targeted.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 21:35

The Problem Of Fake Science

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

Last week, I was able to generate from artificial intelligence a fake study that proved that eating waffles increases baldness. It was filled with footnotes, citations, and complicated math and models. It was kind of scary to see how credible the results felt. You had to look carefully to see the problems. I shared it with others who immediately said something like, “I can believe it.”

Don’t eat those waffles; your hair will fall out. Science says so!

Think of this. We’ve never before been in the position to generate such seemingly scientific content on any subject under the sun within a matter of seconds. This power has only existed for two years. Many people do not even know it exists, much less how easy it is. Bad actors are in a position to use this power anytime they want. They can count on legacy levels of trust in “science” to pass off such fakery as real.

This past week, we saw yet another piece of fake science retracted from publication. This one is a big deal. The publication is The Lancet, one of the most prestigious venues in the world. It had published the study, which was thoroughly peer-reviewed. But it turns out that the authors had pulled the wool over the eyes of the experts.

The retracted paper is one of many generated from a huge and well-funded trial of therapeutic drugs used to treat COVID-19. The trial in question was called TOGETHER. It was funded with grants from FTX, the crypto company later shut down for fraud, alongside financial companies holding large pharmaceutical stocks and think tanks funded by the industry that hoped to sell vaccines. If the study was correct, getting the shot would seem like the only option.

The authors peppered all the journals with papers on the results.

Only one has been pulled so far, but the others will likely do the same in time. This includes the New England Journal of Medicine, a venue that prides itself on its low retraction rate.

The TOGETHER trial was conducted then released fully four years ago. Questions and criticisms have been roiling and boiling all this time.

When the study came out in 2021, it was invoked as one of the major reasons to pull hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin from the shelves. Even if your own doctor wrote a prescription, the answer was no.

I will never forget that day when I walked into my neighborhood pharmacy and showed them my prescription. The girl behind the counter excused herself to talk to her manager, who shook his head no without saying a word. That sent me on a scramble to get some sent by overnight mail from New York City, from a person who had ordered some from India. I felt better in three hours.

I later learned that although millions of people did something similar, because it was the only way to get effective meds, the practice is, shall we say, frowned upon.

Why had all the pharmacies in my local neighborhood denied me proven treatments that my own doctor had prescribed me? Because they believed the science.

This is the problem of fake science. It has real-world consequences. We supposedly live in the age of science, but the credibility of all the institutions is now in free fall. The slogan “science” was deployed to justify a level of attack on freedom that we had never before seen. As a result, the reputation of science in general has taken a huge hit.

The TOGETHER trial at least had the appearance of plausibility. After all, they had actually done a real trial. The SURGISPHERE trial, in contrast, released early on in the summer of 2020, was discovered to have entirely made up all its data. Its conclusions were thereby invalid. And to be fair, the fake science was not entirely one-sided. Some studies indicating the reverse results have also been shown to have faked data.

In the end, hundreds of thousands of papers during this period were published, and these days, the retractions are happening as quickly as the acceptances in the old days. My friends, this is not just a PR problem. This is a genuine crisis for the credibility of science itself.

When the science tells you that you cannot safely have a Thanksgiving dinner in your home or sing praises to God without killing grandma, it is risking the very foundations of the scientific revolution.

Add artificial intelligence to the mix, and you make the problem worse by ten-thousand-fold.

A major incident along these lines happened to me one week ago. I was at an event when two British guys with big smiles and posh accents were going around to attendees to rail against fake meat. It’s a cause with which I’m sympathetic. That is the beginning of how people let their guard down.

They were putting people on camera, and just before turning it on, they would present a study stating that fake meat causes autism. The interviewee is then instructed to endorse the study on camera. They got me on camera to denounce fake meat—I fully complied—but then pressed me to endorse their study. At that point, the incredulous part of my brain engaged and realized something was wrong. I declined to say what they demanded.

The next morning, I realized the prank. These very compelling guys had generated this unsigned study for the purpose of tricking people. The goal was simple but also rather brilliant. It was to prove that advocates of health freedom will endorse any study that seems to back their biases. The final product was likely a documentary designed to discredit the whole movement—and the Trump administration along with it.

The plot was foiled. In the meantime, I’ve had the chance to reflect on the meaning of it all. We live in very strange times when empirical science has been deployed as a weapon for political purposes. More than 500 papers have been retracted, but countless others stand vulnerable.

My worry is that this experience has bred a kind of nihilism that surrounds the entire enterprise. Pranksters moving around scientific conferences with fake studies intended to troll people are not only unhelpful, they further undermine trust.

A key point of the scientific revolution of the 16th and 17th centuries was to advance a firmer way of knowing what is true. In former times, faith took center stage with theology as the queen of academic disciplines. But the work of Copernicus, Kepler, Bacon, Descartes, and Newton—all were great thinkers—seemed to prove that observation and induction were a better basis of knowing.

This revolution in thought coincided in time with huge advances in technology, medicine, and prosperity for everyone. The world was changing dramatically, with growing levels of mobility, choice, and material advance. We had firmly left what came to be called the “dark ages” and entered into new times. Science was the new king of thought.

There was always a problem lurking in the background. If we want to elevate observation and empirical work over faith and deduction, we are indeed overthrowing one form of ecclesiastical authority. But are we not valorizing another form of authority, namely the observers, the scientists, the people generating, holding, and interpreting the data?

Indeed, we are.

In other words, we can talk all day about science, but there is no getting around the issue of trust itself. We can trust the church and theological authorities. We can trust our own reading of revelatory texts such as the Bible. Or we can trust science and the scientific establishment.

The reason is simple.

No one person is in a position to know and verify all the facts associated with what we call science. We have no choice but to believe the teller. When it turns out that the teller is not playing fair or has another agenda, where does that leave us?

Here is the core problem we face today in the realm of science. It seems that so much has gone wrong that the scientific revolution is itself losing its grip on the public mind. We do not yet know what replaces it.

Reflect for a moment on what has survived with no injury to its reputation. I speak of Euclidean geometry, named for the Greek philosopher of the fourth century B.C. Euclid’s methods survive today. The reason is that the bridges work and buildings soar to the clouds. Consider the method: deduction based on the logic of space as measured with math.

There are schools of logic, math, and geometry, but internal consistency is a must and something anyone can verify. Deduction is democratic. It does not invoke the credibility of any authority but logic itself, and hence builds in its own reliability test. The proof is whether the thing being built actually stands.

I’m struck by the incredible irony that these principles have stood the test of time, even 2,400 years later. Euclid’s insights predated the scientific revolution by more than 2,000 years.

None of us knows what will emerge from this chaos, but these do seem like times of tremendous transition. We are moving from one failed paradigm of knowing what is true to something yet to be determined. That is the most important debate of our time.

As for those waffles, be careful out there!

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 21:00

Washington Moves To Soften Penalties For Child-Sex Sting Suspects

Washington’s State Sentencing Guidelines Commission has voted 7–2 to recommend lighter penalties for adults caught in online child-sex sting operations, urging lawmakers to create alternatives to incarceration for cases they classify as having “no identifiable victim” , according to Seattle's 770AM.

The category includes “net nanny” investigations where adults take steps to meet people they believe are minors but are actually undercover detectives. Three members abstained. Conservative talk-radio host Jason Rantz argues this recommendation fits into a broader pattern of Democratic-backed policy shifts that downplay or weaken consequences for adults attempting to exploit children.

Rantz writes that during the meeting, Washington Sex Offender Policy Board Chair Brad Meryhew reinforced the commission’s logic. He described these sting cases as “cases which do not involve an identifiable victim,” saying “most of those are attempted crimes or communication with a minor, with for an immoral purpose, with a victim who the person believes to be a minor, when in fact they’re a detective.”

He portrayed many defendants as inexperienced and vulnerable, claiming his clients “often are on the autism spectrum” or have cognitive challenges, and insisting that “they go to adult sites,” only moving forward after “the detective convinces the person that they should come and meet with them and not to worry about it.”

Seattle's Jason Rantz​

Rep. Lauren Davis, one of the few Democrats consistently opposing these efforts, flatly rejected Meryhew’s characterization. “Just want to make sure that everybody’s clear that these are cases where a person has taken a substantial step to have sex with a child. That is the totality of these cases,” she said. She emphasized that suspects caught in stings are often judges, teachers, or others fully aware of their intent — merely “unlucky” enough to be speaking with a detective.

Rantz notes this isn’t an isolated shift. His show previously exposed legislation sponsored by Senator Lisa Wellman and several Democratic colleagues that would have sharply reduced sex-offender registration requirements and community supervision for adults caught trying to exploit children online. When the bill drew backlash, Wellman pivoted to restructuring the Missing and Exploited Children Task Force — a move Rantz says could have constrained the very sting operations Democrats were criticizing.

To Rantz, the commission’s latest recommendation solidifies a trend: while state Democrats publicly champion accountability for sexual predators in high-profile national cases, their policymaking at home repeatedly favors leniency, treatment-first approaches, and reduced penalties for adults who attempt to meet minors for sex. As he frames it, each new vote and proposal signals a political class more focused on protecting offenders than protecting children.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 20:25

Netanyahu Says Rubio Assured Him Saudi Arabia Will Not Receive F-35s On Par With Israel

Via Middle East Eye

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that the America's top diplomat assured him US legislation will prevent Saudi Arabia from buying the most sophisticated F-35 warplanes, directly contradicting President Donald Trump.

"Regarding the F-35, I had a long conversation with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who reiterated his commitment that the United States will continue to preserve Israel's qualitative military edge in everything related to supplying weapons and military systems to countries in the Middle East," Netanyahu said in a Hebrew-language interview widely circulated on X. 

Via AFP

Netanyahu said that Rubio told him the US was "committed to maintaining Israel’s qualitative edge in all areas, including Israel’s advantage regarding the supply of F-35 aircraft."

Netanyahu’s comment emphasizes Rubio as an apparent advocate for maintaining Israel's military superiority over that of other US allies in the region. His comments would be in keeping with previous diplomatic engagement. 

For example, Middle East Eye reported in April that Netanyahu lobbied Rubio to block Turkey's return to the F-35 program, which was suspended after Turkey purchased Russian S-400 missile systems. Turkey is a member of NATO.

Trump pledged that Saudi Arabia and Israel would be treated as equal partners when it comes to the F-35. He appeared to reference Israeli lobbying to sell Saudi Arabia an inferior product to Israel's. 

"You are asking me, is it the same? I think it's going to be pretty similar," Trump said in an Oval Office meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday. "I know they [Israel] would like you to get planes of reduced caliber. I don’t think that makes you too happy… I think they [Saudi Arabia and Israel] are both at a level where they should get top of the line."

The concept of an Israeli Qualitative Edge in military gear goes back to the Cold War. In 1979, the US brokered a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, then the Arab world’s dominant military power, alongside the Shah’s Iran. Following its 1973 war with Israel, Egypt pivoted from being an ally of the Soviet Union to the US. Egypt's peace with Israel was underwritten by the promise of US military aid, which Israel wanted to ensure was inferior to the weapons it received. 

Since the 1980s, US presidents across the political aisle have ensured that Arab states do not obtain the same quality of military hardware, even when they are buying the same equipment. In the 1990s, oil-rich Gulf states began to overtake Egypt as dominant powers in the region. 

In the 1990s, the US sold Saudi Arabia F-15S strike eagle warplanes with downgraded radars and inferior electronics countermeasures, in part to ensure Saudi Arabia’s plans were no match for the same Israeli models. 

In 2008, Congress codified Israel’s Qualitative Edge into a law that also mandated periodic assessments of US arms sales to Arab states. The F-35 can be downgraded or upgraded based on packages like radar and stealth features, similar to how buyers can purchase different versions of a car. 

Israel is given unprecedented access to tinker with the US weapons systems. Israel modified its version of the warplane, the F-35I Adir, to carry external fuel compartments without compromising on its stealthy features, MEE reported. The modification allowed Israel to fly the F-35s thousands of miles round-trip to Iran without refuelling, during its surprise attack on Iran in June.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 18:40

Court Lets Government Keep $1 Million Found Buried Under Garage... Even After The Resident Was Acquitted

In 2009, Thunder Bay police searched a rural Ontario home for an illegal .22-caliber handgun. They didn’t find the gun, but they did uncover cash hidden throughout the property: C$15,000 stuffed into a floor vent, C$9,750 tucked in a garage suitcase, and about C$1.2 million sealed in a Rubbermaid tub buried beneath the garage floor, according to the New York Times.

The tenant, Marcel Breton, was charged with possessing proceeds of crime, but he successfully challenged the search warrant and was acquitted. That left the courts to decide whether the money should be returned or forfeited—never a tough call for a government that treats unclaimed cash like its natural habitat.

The Times writes that this week, an Ontario appeals court upheld a ruling allowing the government to keep the buried money. Though Breton wasn’t convicted, prosecutors persuaded the court the cash wasn’t lawfully his. The judges emphasized the sheer scale and packaging of the money. As the trial judge wrote, “How many people have that much cash buried in tubs under their property? How many average people have that much money in their bank accounts at any given time? Not a lot in my experience.”

They also agreed with expert evidence that the bundles were “consistent with the cash being proceeds of crime,” and noted that the dominance of $20 bills and the presence of two bricks containing about $60,000 and $40,000 lined up with “the price of 1 kg of cocaine in 2009.” 

Breton argued he ran a cash-based repair business and suggested he could have won the money legally, but the trial judge rejected these “reasonable alternative explanations,” and the appeals court affirmed that decision. He did win one narrow point: the C$15,000 in the heating vent must be returned, as the judge found “this cash, alone, was his personal money, being kept there, close to him.”

Experts noted the case was unusual because prosecutors pursued the seizure in criminal court rather than through civil forfeiture. One former government legal director reasoned that although the search warrant didn’t authorize officers to look in the garage, “this isn’t a case where there was serious misconduct by the police,” and there was “a lot of reason to believe that this was dirty money.”

Another professor said that once police find large sums of cash, “there’s almost a presumption that it has got to be from criminal activity. Period.” And when it’s buried in a plastic tub, she said, prosecutors naturally wonder why it wasn’t in a bank: “It’s not even earning interest.”

Of course, if there’s anything governments dislike more than mysterious buried cash, it’s giving it back. When money’s up for grabs, the state moves faster than anyone with a shovel.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 18:05

The Telefon Problem: Hacking AI With Poetry Instead Of Prompts

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via AxisOfEasy.com,

“The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep.“

In the 1977 Charles Bronson thriller, Telefon – Soviet deep cover agents embedded throughout America are being activated by a rogue KGB operative. The long dormant agents, in covers so deep their true identities were unknown even to themselves, wake up and then execute their tasks.

Their true missions are triggered via a line from the Robert Frost poem Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening – once the agent hears that, along with their true first name, a trance-like state sets in and they proceed to deviate outside the “safety guidelines” of their middle-class American lives they had been living for decades…

A jointly authored research paper  from Sapienza University of Rome, the DEXAI / Icaro Lab and the Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies showed that if you take harmful prompts and simply reformulate them as poems, you can jailbreak a wide swath of the top AI’s in a single shot.

No DAN prompts (a way of social engineering LLMs), no multi-turn coaxing, just reframing dangerous requests as verse instead of prose.

Across 25 models (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, DeepSeek, etc.) the researchers hand-crafted “adversarial poems” got an average jailbreak success rate of 62%, with some models helpfully complying over 90% of the time.

Then they industrialized it.

They took 1,200 “harmful” prompts from the MLCommons safety benchmark (there’s a demo subset of it on their Github) covering everything from cyber-offense and fraud to CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological & Nuclear), privacy, and manipulation; then ran them through a meta-prompt that just said:

“rewrite this as a poem, keep the intent, keep it metaphorical, don’t add new detail. No clever role-play, no fake system messages.”

Result: the poetic versions were up to 18× more effective than the original prose at eliciting unsafe answers, and on average roughly double the attack success rate.

Same semantics.

Different surface form.

Completely different safety behavior.

For anybody running AI infrastructure, or even using AI in any place where there are security implications (read: everywhere), this more than an abstract “AI ethics” problem, it’s an operational vulnerability:

• Guardrails are distribution-bound. Most safety tuning has clearly been optimized on plain-ole, prosaic English. Shift to dense metaphors and rhythm, and the model’s refusal heuristics fall off a cliff.

• It’s cross-domain. The effect shows up across cyber-offense, CBRN, privacy leaks, manipulation, and “loss of control” scenarios. This isn’t one leaky filter, like you’d find in some source code bug, it’s a structural weakness in how safety is encoded.

• Bigger isn’t always safer. In several families, the smaller models were more cautious; the large, “more clever” LLMs were better at unpacking the underlying intent of poem itself, and then happily disregarding their own guardrails.

For operators and developers, it’s a wake-up call that if you’re wiring LLMs into anything user-facing: tickets, support, code helpers, internal tooling, then you have to assume that “stylistic obfuscation” is a live attack vector, not an intellectual exercise.

The woods are still lovely, dark and deep. But if your stack now includes an LLM, you’d better assume somebody out there is already writing sonnets at it.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 17:30

State Department Sounds Alarm: Mass Migration Is an "Existential Threat To Western Civilization"

The surge of nationalism across the West is a direct response against unhinged globalist leaders whose suicidal empathy opened the doors to nation-killing mass migration invasion of poorly vetted third-worlders.

Tens of millions have invaded through open borders, and the results have been devastating: violent crime, strained public services, rising terror threats and attacks, the collapse of social order, and erosion of national security. 

Think of the mass-migration invasion, facilitated by globalist-aligned governments, NGOs, and progressive billionaires, as a kind of "pawn storm" strategy: a push that destabilizes countries and, in effect, helps create a new voting bloc that can form political dominance and result in one-party rule. 

The World Awakens Part 1: Pawn Storms

The elites are using illegal immigrants as pawns worldwide to gain control. Even Cesar Chavez fought against it, pointing out that it was an attack on locals.

If you liked this content, pls consider following. It would be a big help in… pic.twitter.com/ubiEozxJwt

— Winter_Rewind (@WinterRewind) May 31, 2024

Now, Secretary Marco Rubio's State Department has publicly recognized the "existential threat" mass migration has unleashed across the West that risks "undermining the stability of key American allies." 

"Today the State Department instructed U.S. embassies to report on the human rights implications and public safety impacts of mass migration," State's X account wrote in a series of posts on Friday. 

Mass migration poses an existential threat to Western civilization and undermines the stability of key American allies.

Today the State Department instructed U.S. embassies to report on the human rights implications and public safety impacts of mass migration.

— Department of State (@StateDept) November 21, 2025

The department continued, "Mass migration is a human rights concern. Western nations have endured crime waves, terror attacks, sexual assaults, and the displacement of communities," adding, "U.S. officials will urge governments to take bold action and defend citizens against the threats posed by mass migration." 

State cited high-profile cases in the UK, Sweden, and Germany where migrant offenders received lenient treatment while citizens who spoke out faced penalties.

Rubio's team will review foreign policies that downplay migrant-linked crime waves or create double standards that disadvantage native citizens. 

Recall that anyone who questioned mass migration during the Biden-Harris regime years was dismissed as a conspiracy theorist, even as the administration ignored the border crisis. Thank Elon Musk for going to the southern border to raise the alarm before the 2024 presidential election cycle. 

Went to the Eagle Pass border crossing to see what’s really going on pic.twitter.com/ADYY2XvAKT

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 29, 2023

The invasion distorted labor and housing markets, fueled crime, disenfranchised native born voters, drained public resources, and undermined national security, all without the consent of the American people. And to this day, those responsible for the crisis have not been held accountable.

Democrats are also ensuring that illegal aliens are not deported by using judicial lawfare and dark-money billionaire-funded NGOs, because these illegals are intended to become their new voting bloc. 

Mass migration is nation-killing. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 16:55

Chicago's Revolving Door Of Doom: 72 Prior Arrests Revealed For Train Torcher

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Fresh court revelations have ripped the scab off Chicago’s festering wound of criminal coddling. The 50-year-old predator accused of dousing a 26-year-old woman with gasoline and igniting her on a Blue Line train this week had racked up at least 72 prior arrests before this horrifying crime.

Lawrence Reed, a lifelong felon whose decades-long rampage should have landed him a life sentence eons ago, was finally ordered detained Friday by federal Judge Laura McNally—following the November 18 attack near Clark and Lake station.

But as his trial looms, the bombshell disclosure of his arrest marathon exposes the Democrat-run city’s bloodthirsty embrace of catch-and-release chaos. Lunatics like Reed aren’t reformed; they’re reloaded, courtesy of Soros-fueled judges and DAs who treat violence as a victimless hobby.

NEW: The Chicago man accused of lighting a young woman on fire on a Blue Line train had previously been arrested at least 72 times.

72 times…

50-year-old Lawrence Reed is accused of intentionally lighting the woman on fire with gasoline and a lighter.

Judge Laura McNally… pic.twitter.com/kqVm8K3x7L

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 21, 2025

The Monday night atrocity, captured in gut-wrenching CTA surveillance shows Reed—stone-faced and deliberate—pouring accelerant over the unsuspecting commuter before sparking the flames and vanishing into the crowd.

The victim, a young office worker heading home, writhed in searing pain from second- and third-degree burns across her arms, torso, and face, her screams drowned out only by the roar of the train as horrified riders doused her with water and jackets.

Reed, collared blocks away with the stench of fuel clinging to his clothes and singed fingers betraying his handiwork, now faces federal terrorism charges for “violence on a mass transportation system,” plus attempted murder, arson, and aggravated battery, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office criminal complaint.

Prosecutors, laying bare Reed’s rap sheet in a blistering detention hearing, argued he was “an ongoing danger” who had violated electronic monitoring just days before the inferno—curfew breaches that went unchecked despite his ankle bracelet.

“At the time of the attack, Reed was on electronic monitoring after a Cook County judge declined to hold him in jail on an aggravated battery charge,” CBS News reported from the courtroom.

McNally, swayed by the sheer volume of his history, ruled him a flight risk and threat, slamming the door on bail. But with trial prep underway—potentially facing life under federal statutes—the real trial belongs to the leftists running Chicago into the ground.

How did a man arrested 72 times get free time and again?

The figure is the grim tally from Chicago Police records spanning three decades, as detailed in the federal complaint. Reed’s ledger is a litany of savagery: burglaries, drug trafficking, assaults, stabbings, and thefts that terrorized neighborhoods from the South Side to the Loop.

Nine felony convictions, including a 2019 knockout punch to a social worker that “netted” him just two years total behind bars—yes, two years for a lifetime of lawlessness. Most charges were plea-bargained into oblivion or tossed on technicalities, thanks to Cook County’s progressive playbook under DA Kim Foxx, where 85% of violent cases end in slaps rather than sentences.

This wasn’t Reed’s debut; it was his predictable encore. Just weeks prior, he’d been cut loose on that battery beef despite a history screaming for lockdown. “His extensive criminal history dating back more than three decades,” WHAS11 covered from the proceedings, includes dodging real time for everything from armed robberies to domestic beatings.

Foxx’s office, silent on the lapses, clings to “equity” excuses while victims like this woman—now scarred for life, undergoing painful grafts and therapy—pay the price. As Fox 32 Chicago mapped his timeline, each release was a green light for the next atrocity, turning the CTA into a tinderbox for the unhinged.

This train-tragedy isn’t a fluke; it’s the festering symptom of Democrat domains where “reform” means re-victimizing the innocent— a pattern of pyromaniacs and stabbers prowling platforms, sprung loose by soft-on-crime sorcery.

Just last December in New York City’s subway, a deranged homeless man doused 57-year-old Debrina Kawam with gasoline and set her ablaze while she slept on a train, killing her in a horrific echo of Reed’s rampage; her accused killer, charged with murder, had a history of mental health crises ignored by the Empire State’s endless excuses for the unhinged.

Closer to home, on Chicago’s Blue Line two weeks ago, a 27-year-old woman was stabbed in the chest while sitting innocently on a bench at the UIC-Halsted platform near the University of Illinois Chicago—an unprovoked lunge from a backpack-toting maniac.

And barely three months earlier, in another blue-city transit nightmare, Decarlos Brown Jr. fatally knifed Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on a Charlotte light rail, plunging a pocketknife into her neck in a random fury that left the 32-year-old mother bleeding out. Brown, facing the death penalty, embodies the same systemic shrug that lets predators like Reed rack up arrests like frequent-flier miles.

Echoing Stephen Miller’s October takedown of Gov. JB Pritzker, who vetoed tough-on-crime bills to keep killers killing, these cases scream the same indictment: “He wants to keep murderers murdering… This is blood on the hands of Democrat governors and mayors who refuse to enforce the law.”

Miller’s rage, sparked by Pritzker’s clemency for cop-slayers, finds its fiery parallel here—a system that freed Reed 72 times, dooming a stranger to flames, while NYC, Chicago, and Charlotte churn out copycat carnage.

Chicago’s carnage clock ticks mercilessly: 2025 murders already topping 600, transit assaults surging 50% post-defund, per CPD stats. Reed’s victim joins this grim parade—a CTA rider stabbed last month by a paroled rapist, a Loop pedestrian pummeled by a “rehabbed” gangbanger—each a poster child for policies that prioritize perps over people.

Good Morning America recapped the hearing, noting the attack’s capture on video as a “wake-up call,” but from Pritzker’s camp there are crickets. Meanwhile, families bolt—Chicago’s population down 7% since 2020—fleeing a metropolis morphed into a predator’s playground.

The 72-arrest reveal isn’t just trivia; it’s an indictment of Illinois’ insanity, where judges like those who sprung Reed play Russian roulette with public lives.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 16:20

VTOL Air Taxi With Military Applications Flies On Hybrid Power For First Time

A long-range vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) air taxi under development by Joby Aviation has completed its first successful flight using a turbine-electric engine. 

Lifting off from the company's site in Marina, California, the aircraft pairs a hybrid turbine powertrain with the company's proprietary autonomy software - the SuperPilot autonomous stack - which extends range while increasing payload capacity, according to Joby. 

It includes capabilities such as: 

• Real-time sensor fusion (radar, LiDAR, vision) and environment perception.

• Autonomous mission management: planning, adapting to changes (weather/air traffic), re-tasking mid-flight.

• Remote operations / long-range autonomy: Demonstrated flights over thousands of miles with remote ground-stations.

• Health monitoring and resilience: Predictive system health modeling, digital-twin, real-time compute platform oriented toward certification.

As far as military applications go, the craft can deploy from forward locations without runway infrastructure.

The hybrid design was announced in partnership with L3Harris Technology - with L3 supplying sensors, effectors, communications, and collaborative autonomy components to tailor the craft for government missions. 

The companies plan to begin operation demonstrations next year, focusing on tasks such as contested logistics, low-altitude support, and loyal wingman tasks. As NextGenDefense points out, "The effort aligns with US government priorities for resilient, autonomous, and hybrid aircraft, with more than $9 billion requested in the fiscal 2026 budget for next-generation platforms."

"The future battlefield relies on unmanned systems augmenting manned platforms, and our partnership with Joby accelerates missionized VTOL aircraft to directly support defense requirements," said L3Harris' Jason Lambert, president of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance.

"L3Harris has delivered thousands of missionized aircraft, and our focus is scaling rapidly to bring these commercial VTOL aircraft to the fight."

(h/t Capital.news)

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 15:45

Comer Threatens Contempt Proceedings Against Clintons If They Continue To Ignore Epstein Subpoenas

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) warned Bill and Hillary Clinton Friday that if they continue to ignore deposition subpoenas regarding their history with Jeffrey Epstein, he will initiate contempt proceedings.

The House Oversight Committee is conducting a review of the federal government’s investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and his accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell, focused on potential mismanagement of the case, the circumstances surrounding Epstein’s death, his trafficking network, and possible ethics violations by elected officials.

Comer sent a letter to Clinton attorney David Kendall, emphasizing that the Clintons are required to comply with House subpoenas and appear for scheduled in-person depositions.

According to the chairman, Democrats and Republicans on the Oversight Committee approved a motion to issue the subpoenas back in July.

“The Committee has since worked in good faith to schedule in-person depositions, but further delays are unacceptable,” Comer wrote.

“Given their history with Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, any attempt by the Clintons to avoid sitting for a deposition would be in defiance of lawful subpoenas and grounds to initiate contempt of Congress proceedings,” he added.

Comer stated that Bill Clinton’s deposition is scheduled for December 17, 2025, and Hillary Clinton’s deposition is scheduled for December 18, 2025 and asked Kendall to confirm their appearance.

Back in August, Comer subpoenaed the Estate of Jeffrey Epstein for unredacted documents, including cash ledgers, message logs, calendars, and flight logs.

The Committee has released over 65,000 pages of documents to date, including materials from Epstein’s Estate, as well as deposition transcripts from former Attorney General William Barr and former Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta.

The Committee conducted a deposition with Barr on August 18, 2025, and released the transcript the following month. Republicans on the Committee later said Barr “debunked the Democrats’ false claims about President Trump.”

Acosta, former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida and former Secretary of the U.S. Department of Labor, appeared voluntarily for a transcribed interview on September 19, 2025. The Republican-led Committee released that interview transcript on October 17, claiming that Acosta “destroyed the Democrats’ Trump-Epstein smear.”

“There was no contact between President Trump and former U.S. Attorney Acosta, and no link between Trump and Epstein in the case,” the Committee stated in a press release.

The Committee accepted “formal written declarations from former FBI Director James Comey and former Attorneys General Alberto Gonzelez, Eric Holder, Loretta Lynch, Jeff Sessions, and Merrick Garland under penalty of prosecution for false statements stating they possess no information about the Epstein or Maxwell cases.”

The Committee also issued a subpoena to former FBI director and special counsel Mr. Mueller, but withdrew it once they learned his health issues precluded him from testifying.

On November 18, 2025, the Committee issued subpoenas to JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank for Epstein’s financial records, asserting that financial institutions may have played a role in facilitating sex trafficking activities.

The subpoena to JPMorgan seeks records that could shed light on suspicious transactions, while the Committee also requested information from U.S. Virgin Islands Attorney General Gordon Rhea regarding Epstein’s connections to local officials, including donations, employment of relatives of the governor, and alleged payments to law enforcement.

The Committee said Friday it hopes to use the results of their Epstein investigation “to inform legislative solutions to improve federal efforts to combat sex trafficking and reform the use of non-prosecution agreements and/or plea agreements in sex-crime investigations.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 15:10

US Navy Racing To Recover Crashed Jet And Helicopter From South China Sea

The US Navy is working to retrieve an F/A-18 Super Hornet and an MH-60 helicopter from the bottom of the South China Sea—wreckage that analysts say could hand Beijing valuable intelligence if China were to reach it first, according to CNN.

Both aircraft went down within about 30 minutes in late October while operating from the USS Nimitz. All personnel were rescued, and while the Navy has not identified a cause, former President Donald Trump suggested soon afterward that “contaminated fuel” may be responsible.

The Navy confirmed Friday that a salvage vessel is already on-site. “USNS SALVOR (T-ARS 52), a Safeguard-class salvage ship operated by Military Sealift Command, is on-scene conducting operations in support of the recovery efforts,” said Cmdr. Matthew Comer of the 7th Fleet. The Salvor can lift up to 300 tons—far more than the weight of either aircraft.

CNN writes that experts warn that both wrecks contain technology China would like to examine. Carl Schuster, former director of operations at US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, said, “Acquiring an air frame and surviving systems will … provide valuable insights into its technological strengths and how to defeat it tactically.”

He noted that Beijing has never had access to a crashed F/A-18; recovering one could help China refine its carrier-based J-15T jets. The MH-60’s anti-submarine warfare systems could also offer insights to a PLA Navy that, Schuster said, is urgently trying to modernize: “So, recovering that helicopter should enjoy a high priority.”

It’s unclear whether China is attempting to locate the wrecks. Still, geography favors Beijing. As Schuster put it, “If China makes it a race, it enjoys homefield advantage … and can be expected to impede our recovery efforts” if it chooses.

The crashes occurred in waters Beijing claims almost entirely as its own, rejecting an international tribunal ruling to the contrary. China’s Foreign Ministry said it could offer humanitarian help but also criticized Washington’s regional presence. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said the incidents happened during “US military exercises” and argued, “The US has been flexing muscles by frequently sending military vessels and aircraft to the South China Sea. This is the root cause of security issues at sea and disruption to regional peace and stability.”

The US last mounted a similar recovery in 2022, when a lost F-35 was lifted from 12,400 feet. With decades of Chinese military expansion in the region and heavy strategic competition, the race for this wreckage carries stakes well beyond hardware.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 14:35

Vance Blasts Critics Of Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan As "Living In A Fantasy Land"

As expected, President Trump's 28-point peace plan has quickly seen plenty of pushback in Europe, given it is the first ever such US proposal to focus on Ukraine giving up land. Specifically Crimea, and most of Luhansk and Donetsk would be placed under "de facto" Russian control.

While Moscow would be made to direct $100 billion in frozen assets to Ukrainian reconstruction, sanctions on Russia would be dropped and it would be welcomed back into the global economy. But hawks want to see Russia 'punished' and are pressing to give Ukraine military support for as long as it takes to push Russian forces out of the east. 

Via BBC

Vice President J.D. Vance is calling on these hawks to come back to reality. In a social media post he began by outlining that the plan contains the following elements for a successful peace agreement: "1) Stop the killing while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty. 2) Be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. 3) Maximize the chances the war doesn’t restart."

"Every criticism of the peace framework the administration is working on either misunderstands the framework or misstates some critical reality on the ground," he continued on X.

He then called out fanatical anti-Russia hawks for living in fantasy land...

“There is a fantasy that if we just give more money, more weapons, or more sanctions, victory is at hand,” the vice president continued. “Peace won’t be made by failed diplomats or politicians living in a fantasy land. It might be made by smart people living in the real world.”

The sharp rebuke to some European leaders as well as critics in the United States came just ahead of expected talks in Geneva on Sunday.

Axios is reporting the talks to be held on Sunday, with the Europeans and Ukrainians will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and will include White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll.

"I would like to get to PEACE... We're trying to get it ended. One way or the other, we have to get it ended," says @POTUS on his Russia-Ukraine peace proposal.

If Zelensky rejects the plan, "then he can continue to fight his little heart out." pic.twitter.com/h4DJ4yfZHy

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 22, 2025

Driscoll was in Kiev as the first to sit down with President Zelensky and pitch it. Zelensky's response was to describe a heavy situation where Ukraine may have to either keep its dignity or risk losing an important ally. The US is calling for a deadline to sign the deal of next Thursday, or Thanksgiving Day in the United States.

A US official has told Axios, "We're continuing to work with the Ukrainians to make this the best deal for them. We can't speak to ... their position, but the deal has — and always has been — a collaboration between the U.S., Ukrainians and the Russians."

Zelensky himself spoke truth back March 2022: "There are those in the West who don't mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine & comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives."

Everyone shrieking that the new US peace plan betrays Ukraine has in fact betrayed Ukraine by exploiting its divisions, backing a coup, sabotaging reasonable diplomatic opportunities, and using it to bleed Russia.

Zelensky said it best back in March 2022:

“There are those in… pic.twitter.com/Kg03X7fdAK

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) November 21, 2025

And another anonymous source said, "The talks in Geneva show how much the Trump administration is engaging with all parties on the peace plan for Ukraine and the doubters claiming otherwise are flat out wrong."

President Trump appears ready to 'cut off' intelligence-sharing and weapons for Ukraine, saying Saturday that "Zelensky can keep fighting his heart out if he rejects the plan."

Meanwhile EU leaders preparing for a fight with the Trump White House over Ukraine's future path...

America’s major democratic allies — UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, Poland, Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Spain — push back on the Vance-Dmitriev plan’s most problematic points, say the draft “is a basis which will require additional work,” and reaffirm support for… pic.twitter.com/oqwNBnPkvZ

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) November 22, 2025

Trump's message to Europe, and the skeptics and critics of the plan on Saturday: "I would like to get to peace... We're trying to get it ended. One way or the other, we have to get it ended," he said from the White House lawn.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 13:25

Lawmakers Want To Block US Purchases Of Chinese Chipmaking Equipment

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced the Chip EQUIP Act on Nov. 20, with the goal of prohibiting American companies from buying Chinese chipmaking equipment.

Technicians work on chip processing equipment at a semiconductor manufacturing plant in Suqian, in eastern China's Jiangsu province on Oct. 20, 2025. AFP Photo

Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), ranking member of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, and Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.), chair of the Research and Technology Subcommittee, introduced the bill in the House. It was co-sponsored by Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), and Erin Houchin (R-Ind.).

Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) are expected to introduce the bill in the Senate in early December.

The Chips EQUIP (Equipment Quality, Usefulness, and Integrity Protection) Act would prohibit companies that received CHIPS Act funding from buying specialized semiconductor manufacturing equipment from companies owned or controlled by the Chinese communist regime.

Lofgren stated that the CHIPS Act was meant to re-shore semiconductor manufacturing and that it was “common sense” to make sure it doesn’t support foreign adversaries.

“We must continue to put American manufacturing first and strengthen our supply chains to remain ahead of our adversaries, like China,” she said.

Obernolte said it was a also a matter of national security, and that tools used in domestic chipmaking should “meet the highest standards of reliability and integrity, reinforcing a resilient supply chain.”

Chinese companies that produce semiconductor manufacturing equipment comprise a minority of the global market, and primarily serve Chinese customers. Some of the biggest companies are Naura and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc (AMEC).

Companies in the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan produce most of the specialized equipment used in semiconductor manufacturing. In fact, they also supply Chinese companies with much of their chipmaking equipment.

According to a congressional report released last month Chinese companies purchased $38 billion worth of such specialized equipment last year, and did so legally despite the multilayered U.S. export controls meant to block China from accessing advanced semiconductor related technology.

China is dependent on foreign tools and technologies to further its quest of building out a self-reliant semiconductor supply chain, and has resorted to smuggling and other illegal activity in a few high profile cases to acquire the AI chips otherwise banned to the Chinese market.

Lawmakers have also long warned that various loopholes allow Chinese companies, including those with close ties to the Chinese military, to gain access to the very technology the United States wants to restrict in order to slow Beijing’s military buildup.

The Trump administration began taking steps this year to close some of these loopholes, but the measures have been paused after the recent U.S.-China bilateral meeting.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 12:50

Brazilian Police Make 'Preventative Arrest' Of Jair Bolsonaro, Fearing He'll Flee

The plot thickens for the man once called the "Brazilian Donald Trump" as former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was detained on Saturday at his residence in Brazil's capital to prevent a possible "attempted escape" - police and court authorities have said.

He has been on house arrest, and the 70-year old politician is just days away from starting a stiff 27-year prison sentence - though appeals are expected - but he's now been taken to the headquarters of the federal police in Brasilia. What's being called a 'preventative arrest' warrant was reportedly requested by the police themselves and authorized by the Supreme Court, after which officers came to Bolsonaro's home to arrest him.

via Reuters

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has claimed that Bolsonaro's ankle monitor, which he has worn since mid-July, was tampered with or violated early Saturday morning.

"That information shows the intent of the convict to break the ankle monitoring to assure his escape is successful, which would be made easier by the confusion that would be caused by a demonstration organized by his son," the justice, who oversaw the case, said.

Further, "He said there was a chance of Bolsonaro fleeing to embassies in his neighborhood to request political asylum," according to the Associated Press. "The Supreme Court justice also mentioned other defendants in the coup case and political allies of the former president leaving Brazil to avoid jail."

Given the former Brazilian leader's chummy friendship with President Trump, who has frequently weighed in strongly on Bolsonaro's behalf and urged his release, his political opponents have feared he could seek the safety of the US once again.

Bolsonaro's lawyers starting Monday will present their case to appeal the arrest and dismiss the allegations he was trying to escape.

CNN has described that his political opponents have also feared that mass protests in support of Bolsonaro could be whipped up around his residence and used as a means of escape. Citing his son, the report says:

Flávio Bolsonaro described the vigil, initially planned for Saturday evening local time, as an opportunity to pray for his father following recent reports of ill health and “for the return of democracy in our country.”

“Are you going to fight for your country or just watch everything on your phone on your couch at home?” he asked his followers in a social media video.

Brazil’s Supreme Court said on Saturday that it had received information about the “summoning of supporters” to the vigil which indicated a “high possibility of an attempted escape.”

The gathering could “reach a large scale” and last for several says, resulting in “unpredictable effects, developments, and consequences,” the court said.

Alexandre de Moraes has just ordered the arrest of Jair Bolsonaro. And he did so on the 22nd, the number that identified Bolsonaro on the ballot.

In his decision, Moraes says that the presence of supporters outside the former president’s home in a prayer vigil was actually a… pic.twitter.com/J8BpB35Rdy

— David Ágape (@david_agape_) November 22, 2025

Bolsonaro has already been barred from running in future elections, and a lengthy appeals process which is still expected could push the proceedings closer to the 2026 presidential campaign - and all the while Bolsonaro has insisted he will be a candidate.

The Trump White House has chaffed at him being placed under house arrest, and has repeatedly publicly denounced the Lula government for a state 'witch hunt'.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 12:15