Zero Hedge

Costa Rica's President Cuts Off Diplomatic Ties With Cuban Regime

Costa Rica's President Cuts Off Diplomatic Ties With Cuban Regime

Authored by Kimberlyh Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Costa Rica’s President Rodrigo Chaves revealed Wednesday that his government has ceased recognizing the legitimacy of Cuba’s communist regime and ordered the Cuban embassy in San José to close.

The Costa Rican embassy in Havana, Cuba, on March 18, 2026. Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images

In a press conference in Peñas Blancas during the inauguration of new U.S.-donated mobile drug scanners at the northern border with Nicaragua, Chaves said the decision was a stand against the Cuban government’s oppression of its people.

“Costa Rica does not recognize the legitimacy of Cuba’s Communist regime, given the mistreatment, repression, and undignified conditions endured by the inhabitants of that beautiful island,” Chaves said. “We must cleanse the hemisphere of communists.”

During Wednesday’s press conference, Foreign Minister Arnoldo André Tinoco said the government chose to shutter its Costa Rica embassy in Havana and asked Cuba to remove its diplomatic personnel from San José, while permitting consular services to continue for practical purposes.

The decision comes as the Chaves administration positions itself against perceived leftist influences in the region and transnational crime syndicates. Meanwhile, Costa Rica and the United States increased collaboration on stopping drug trafficking.

Chaves doubled-down on the country’s security infrastructure at key ports, including Japdeva’s Gastón Kogan port, Peñas Blancas, Paso Canoas, and Caldera. Chaves on Wednesday connected the technology’s rollout to his administration’s campaign against organized crime.

Chaves said the new scanners would play a key role in blocking cocaine and fentanyl flows, crediting American support while condemning past domestic setbacks.

Cuba’s foreign ministry said it was informed on Tuesday of Costa Rica’s order for diplomatic staff to withdraw, leaving only consulate staff in place starting April 1. It said Costa Rica offered no justification and called the decision “arbitrary,” claiming it was made under pressure.

“The Costa Rican ​government, which displays a history of subordination to United States policy against Cuba, once again joins ​the offensive by the U.S. government in its renewed attempts to isolate our country,” the ministry said in a ‌statement.

The move follows Ecuador’s decision on March 8 to close its Cuban embassy and declare Cuba’s ambassador Basilio Gutierrez ​and his diplomatic staff “persona non grata,” giving him 48 hours to leave the country.

Cuba’s Foreign Ministry condemned the move, blaming the United States for Ecuador’s decision.

“This is an unfriendly and unprecedented act that significantly damages the historic relations of friendship and cooperation between both countries and peoples,” the ministry said in a statement on March 8.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 16:20

US LNG Export Terminals "Running Near Maximum" As MidEast Energy Infra Descends Into Chaos

US LNG Export Terminals "Running Near Maximum" As MidEast Energy Infra Descends Into Chaos

The attacks on upstream oil/gas assets across the Middle East this week sparked turmoil across global energy markets. 

Israel set off the chain reaction with its attack on Iran's South Pars gas field on Wednesday morning, followed by Iran's retaliatory strikes on Qatar's LNG plant, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export hub, and other targets across the surrounding Gulf states.

This week's attacks on critical upstream energy facilities across the Middle East, by both Iran and Israel, suggest the risk of prolonged outages and tighter global gas markets.

Read: 

That is bullish for U.S. LNG exporters along the Gulf of America, where waters remain calm and the risk of major conflict is low.

But as Criterion Research President, James Bevan, details below, these U.S. export hubs are already operating at or near full capacity.

The Strike

Iranian ballistic missiles struck Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City in two waves over 12 hours on March 18-19, causing extensive damage to both the Shell-QatarEnergy Pearl GTL facility and the LNG complex. The Pearl GTL complex, the world's largest gas-to-liquids facility processing approximately 1.6 Bcf/d of feed gas, was hit first on Wednesday evening. A second wave early Thursday struck LNG facilities directly. QatarEnergy confirmed sizeable fires and extensive further damage but did not specify which trains were affected.

Qatar's Ministry of Defence reported five ballistic missiles were fired at the complex; four were intercepted, and the fifth struck home. No casualties were reported, and all personnel had been evacuated hours earlier after the IRGC issued explicit warnings naming Ras Laffan among five energy complexes across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar that it designated as targets. The fires have been showing up on NASA satellite flyovers, affirming the situation on-site.

The attacks were retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iran's South Pars gas field. The IRGC named five energy complexes across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as targets. Key developments across the Gulf:

  • Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles targeting Riyadh and the eastern region

  • UAE shut its Habshan gas facility and Bab oil and gas field after falling debris from intercepts

  • Brent crude briefly touched $119/bbl before settling around $114; TTF jumped 16%+ to 63.7 euros/MWh

  • Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to tanker traffic

  • Trump warned the U.S. would destroy the entirety of South Pars if Iran strikes Qatar's LNG facilities again

What's Offline

Ras Laffan houses roughly 77 MTPA of liquefaction capacity, approximately 20% of global LNG supply. That capacity had already been offline since March 2, when earlier Iranian drone strikes forced a halt and triggered force majeure. The market initially treated the shutdown as temporary. Confirmed physical damage from this week's strikes changes the calculus:

  • Prior restart estimates assumed 2 weeks to resume + 2 weeks to stabilize

  • Structural damage to LNG trains, if confirmed, could push the timeline to months or years

  • Pearl GTL alone may face a multi-year outage if reports of destroyed air separation units prove accurate

US LNG: Running Full Out Into the Gap

While roughly a fifth of global LNG supply sits offline and damaged in Qatar, US export terminals are running at or near maximum capacity.

Per Criterion Research, total US LNG feed gas flows surged to 19,982 MMcf/d on March 19, recovering sharply from a brief dip the prior day. The current weekly average of approximately 19,883 MMcf/d represents a step-up from last week's 19,731 MMcf/d, and forward nominations suggest flows could climb toward 20,234 MMcf/d in the days ahead as commissioning activity progresses at multiple facilities.

The Math

Qatar's 77 MTPA offline equates to roughly 10.2 Bcf/d removed from the global market. US terminals at ~20 Bcf/d cannot physically replace it. No combination of non-Qatari suppliers can.

Goldman Sachs estimated a one-month Hormuz halt could drive TTF toward 74 euros/MWh, the threshold that triggered demand destruction during the 2022 European energy crisis. We are now well past one month of disruption, with infrastructure damage escalating. European storage sits at ~29% full, down 20+ points YoY, with injection season starting in April. In Asia, Qatar supplied ~53% of India's LNG imports, 72% of Bangladesh's, and 99% of Pakistan's.

Every incremental MTPA of new US capacity, whether from Golden Pass, Corpus Christi Stage 3, or Plaquemines, now carries outsized significance. The commissioning trajectory at these facilities is no longer a corporate milestone. It is a global supply security question. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 15:45

Leaks Allege Drones Spotted Over Base Where Rubio, Hegseth Live

Leaks Allege Drones Spotted Over Base Where Rubio, Hegseth Live

Unidentified drones were allegedly detected above the Washington Army base where Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth live, according to three insiders who leaked the information to the Washington Post. Officials were unable to determine where they originated, two of the leakers said. 

Multiple drones were allegedly spotted over Fort Lesley J. McNair on a single night over the last 10 days, prompting increased security measures and a White House discussion on how to respond, said senior admin official "who spoke on the condition of anonymity."

The drones over Fort McNair prompted officials to weigh relocating Rubio and Hegseth, two of the people briefed said. The senior administration official said the secretaries haven’t moved. Their quarters on the base were publicly reported by multiple outlets in October.

Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell declined to discuss the drones. “The department cannot comment on the secretary’s movements for security reasons, and reporting on such movements is grossly irresponsible,” he said. -WaPo

And in leaks spanning both the Trump and Biden administrations, similar drone threats surfaced after Trump took out Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020, according to the report. There were also unidentified drones spotted by Trump's Secret Service detail during the 2024 presidential race (or they may have just been inebriated?) during a news conference in LA and a motorcade ride through rural western Pennsylvania, where a bunch of regular people own drones. 

The news comes after officials locked down facilities at MacDill AFB in Tampa, Florida - home to US Central Command, which is conducting US military operations in Iran - after a suspicious package resulted in the closure of the base's visitors centers on Monday, while a second, unspecified security incident on Wednesday left the base under a shelter-in-place order for several hours. 

Marine One takes off from Fort McNair in 2023 with President Joe Biden aboard. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images)

"To ensure the safety and security of our people and the mission, commanders adjust their installation’s security posture in accordance with local threat assessments," a spokesperson said in a statement. 

The Post also reports that a leaked diplomatic cable from the State Department on Tuesday ordered all US diplomatic posts worldwide to "immediately" undertake security evaluations, citing "the ongoing and developing situation in the Middle East and the potential for spillover effects." 

Fort McNair is home to the National Defense University as well as some of the Pentagon's most senior military officials. While it has not traditionally housed political leaders, several Trump officials, including outgoing DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, have been calling area bases home. McNair is close to Capitol Hill and the White House. 

For those keeping track, that's at least six leakers, leaking to the Post. That's a lot of 'trust us, bro.'

Also, and probably unrelated, remember all those weird 'car-sized' drones reported in Dec. 2024 that had zero explanation? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 14:20

Some US Airports Face Possible Closure If Government Shutdown Prolongs: TSA Official

Some US Airports Face Possible Closure If Government Shutdown Prolongs: TSA Official

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Some U.S. airports may be forced to close down if lawmakers fail to reach a deal to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and end the partial government shutdown, a Transportation Security Administration (TSA) official said on March 17.

Acting Deputy TSA Administrator Adam Stahl told Fox News that the TSA has “fully depleted” its available workforce from the National Deployment Office to cover staffing shortages at airports.

“So at this point, we’re fully stretched. Frankly, there’s not much else we can do,” he said.

“As the weeks continue, if this continues, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that we may have to quite literally shut down airports, particularly smaller ones.”

Stahl said the government shutdown has placed financial strain on TSA workers living paycheck to paycheck, some of whom are sleeping in their cars and drawing blood to pay for expenses.

“If there’s not action taken, particularly from Senate Democrats, this is going to get worse,” he said.

“It’s not going to get better, and there will be significant pain for passengers as well. Three- [to] four-hour wait time at select airports.”

Funding for DHS lapsed last month after Congress failed to strike a deal on immigration reforms sought by Democrats following the fatal shooting of two U.S. citizens by federal immigration agents during operations in Minnesota earlier this year.

The partial shutdown has left about 50,000 TSA officers working without pay. More than 300 officers have quit the agency during the shutdown, according to DHS.

The department said that a little more than 10 percent of TSA officers were absent from work on March 15.

The CEOs of major U.S. airlines wrote a joint letter on March 15 urging congressional leaders to come together immediately to negotiate a deal to fund DHS and end the partial government shutdown.

In the letter, the CEOs said it is unacceptable for TSA workers to go without pay, noting that it is “difficult, if not impossible, to put food on the table, put gas in the car and pay rent” when they are not getting paid.

“This problem is solvable, and there are solutions on the table,“ they wrote.

”Now it’s up to you, Congress, to move forward on bipartisan proposals that will get federal aviation workers—including TSA officers, U.S. Customs clearance officers at airports and air traffic controllers—paid during shutdowns.”

The previous government shutdown, in the fall of 2025, lasted 43 days, causing widespread flight disruptions and forcing the Federal Aviation Administration to order 10 percent reductions of air traffic at major airports nationwide.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 14:00

Another 2008 Analog: Goldman, JPM Offering Hedge Funds Ways To Short Private Credit

Another 2008 Analog: Goldman, JPM Offering Hedge Funds Ways To Short Private Credit

The big story last week, a narrative which we may have inadvertently started, was the recurring comparison across various sellside desks (and quite a few buysiders) of the current double crisis (private credit as an analog to the subprime crisis of 2007/2008 coupled with soaring oil prices which peaked at just below $150 in the summer of 2008 before crashing along with the start of the global financial crisis, similar to now). None other than Michael Hartnett dedicated his latest Flow Show to describing how "Wall Street Is Ominously Trading The 2008 Analog."

Well, we now have another very stark comparison to events from 2008.

Recall back then, while big banks like Goldman were actively pitching long RMBS trades to clients, seemingly oblivious of the subprime risk, they were quietly arranging transactions for their best clients - such as Paulson and Magnetar - to short the entire RMBS/housing stack in advance of the subprime explosion that would spark the global financial crisis. In fact, it was this trade that make Paulson a billionaire (and some might add, a one hit wonder). 

While subprime was the crisis catalyst in 2008, this time around almost everyone agrees that ground zero of the next credit crisis will be the $1.8 trillion private credit market, which as we have described extensively, is in dire straits (with all due respect to Hormuz) as a result of not only the panicked surge in redemptions on a sudden revulsion to the asset class which has prompted numerous funds to impose gates...

... but also what Boaz Weinstein described as the "massive declines in everything from OTF, TCPC, FSK, OXLC, BPRE, the tripling of outflows for Cliffwater and Blue Owl, the frauds, the rise in bad PIK, the mis-labeling of Saas, the embellishment of what portion of the  portfolios are true 1L, and a whole lot more."

And it is private credit that the big banks are now quietly aiding their best clients to short, even as they publish report after report talking how the selling in private credit is irrational and should reverse. 

According to Bloomberg, Goldman and JPMorgan are among investment banks offering hedge fund clients ways to bet against the $1.8 trillion private credit markets, having assembled baskets of listed companies with exposure to the space.

Goldman’s indexes vary from one focused on European financial institutions with private credit exposure to a group of business development companies and another alternatives managers more broadly. JPMorgan’s basket meanwhile includes alternatives managers and BDCs, Bloomberg's sources said. Clients can also invest in the indices.

Meanwhile, Bank of America has a basket of European financial firms with exposure to private credit, including Partners Group, Deutsche Bank and Axa. The Financial Times reported earlier on Thursday that the bank had since awkwardly withdrawn a recommendation that clients bet against European companies potentially exposed to private credit shocks.

Why: because the bank doesn't want to get in trouble with European regulators who know very well that any push to tip over the private credit house of cards could lead to the next credit crisis, one which would almost certainly drag Europe's debt-challenged states in as well.

And just to make the 2008 analog complete, separately Bloomberg reports that another branch of Goldman, the bank's Asset Management division, has begun preliminary talks with investors to raise at least $10 billion for a global direct lending fund. 

The fund, West Street Loan Partners VI, will focus on companies across North America, Europe and Australia, typically targeting businesses generating more than $100 million in EBITDA. Its predecessor fund raised over $13 billion in 2024.

Goldman is targeting returns of between 10%-12% on a levered basis for the fund, and 6%-7% on an unlevered basis, Bloomberg's sources said. At least 80% of the portfolio is expected to consist of senior loan positions.

In other words, Goldman's trading desk is helping and arranging for its hedge funds clients sell and short exposure to private credit while another division of Goldman (one which is supposedly behind a Chinese Wall) is actively soaking up everything that is for sale, at a sizable discount of course. One can hardly wait for the 2028 Congressional hearings on the topic. 

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Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 13:40

China Buys Gold For 16th Straight Month, Wall Street Sells As Retail Loads The Bullion Boat

China Buys Gold For 16th Straight Month, Wall Street Sells As Retail Loads The Bullion Boat

For the 16th month in a row, China bought gold into reserves in February even as bullion prices hovered near record highs.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) added another 30,000 troy ounces last month, lifting official reserves to approximately 2,309 metric tonnes (74.22 million ounces), valued at $388 billion.

This represents roughly 9-10% of China’s total foreign reserves.

At this pace, China is closing in on the top global holders (still behind US ~8,133t, Germany ~3,352t, but climbing fast).

Since November 2024, the PBOC has increased its gold holdings by a total of 1.4 million ounces.

Central banks are not alone, as CoinTelegraph's Martin Young reports, retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the past four months, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

“Retail-driven exuberance,” increasingly channeled through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), “set the stage for outsize moves,” continuing the precious metal rally from 2025, reported the BIS in a quarterly review released on Monday. 

Since Q2 2025, retail investors have bought around $70 billion in gold ETFs, and these purchases have more than tripled over the last six months, observed the Kobeissi Letter, citing BIS data on Thursday.

“Retail investors are all-in on precious metals,” it noted. 

Gold has surged 60% over the past year, and some crypto proponents have speculated it has come at the expense of Bitcoin, which some argue competes with gold as a store-of-value asset.

BIS data shows cumulative retail inflows effectively tripled from around $20 billion to roughly $60 billion over the six months from late Q3 2025 to the end of Q1 2026.

However, institutional selling started around mid-November and accelerated after the precious metals market began to correct in January, according to the data. 

Bitcoin is not the only asset susceptible to high volatility from overleveraged positions. 

Prices of precious metals such as gold and silver reversed abruptly in late January and February 2026, while the “daily rebalancing of leveraged ETFs and margin‑triggered liquidations amplified the swings,” particularly in silver, BIS reported.

Smaller speculative derivatives traders, or “non-reportables,” had built up heavily leveraged long positions in silver heading into the crash, it added. 

Gold prices are in 'correction' currently, down over 16% from its record highs in January.

The abrupt price drop and the spike in precious metal volatility “point to the role of retail flows, and amplification of price moves due to forced sales by leveraged ETFs, trend-following investors such as commodity trading advisers, and margin dynamics,” BIS stated. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 13:05

Senate Again Rejects Effort to Restrict Trump's Iran War Powers

Senate Again Rejects Effort to Restrict Trump's Iran War Powers

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Senate on Tuesday once again rejected a motion to discharge S.J. Res. 118, a joint resolution to withdraw American armed forces from military actions in Iran sans Congressional approval. The motion was shot down in a 47–53 vote.

The measure, introduced by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), is an attempt to invoke the War Powers Resolution of 1973 to require explicit congressional approval for ongoing U.S. military involvement in the region.

The motion was rejected mostly along party lines, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) providing the lone Republican supporter and Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) voting with Republicans.

“If there’s anything that is plain in that Constitution, it is that a president does not have the power to unilaterally bring a nation and its treasure, to bring a nation and its men and women into conflict without a say of Congress,” Booker said on the Senate floor.

“This is not a partisan issue. This is not a left or right issue. It is a right or wrong, do you stand with the Constitution of the United States of America?”

The U.S.-led military campaign against Iran entered its third week on Wednesday as Iran engages in retaliatory strikes across the region, disrupting global energy flows and driving up oil prices. Iran launched missiles and drones late Wednesday night a toward Israel and several Persian Gulf countries, continuing a trend of targeting its neighbors.

The Israel Defense Forces, as well as defense measures in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have responded to Iran’s attacks. Israel conducted strikes in Tehran Tuesday, killing Ali Larijani, a top Iranian security official, as well as Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Basij force.

Meanwhile, Brent crude prices have skyrocketed above $100 per barrel as Middle East oil exports have been halted. Strikes against Iranian gas fields have contributed to the increase in oil prices. Two Canadian cargo ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf, unable to pass through the waterway.

U.S. intelligence says Iran’s regime remains in power, but it’s deteriorated.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has said it would likely dedicate years to rebuild drone, missile, and other capabilities if it does not fall as a result of the conflict.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 12:30

Iran Oil Exports Soar As Bessent Floats Unsanctioning Iranian Oil Already-At-Sea

Iran Oil Exports Soar As Bessent Floats Unsanctioning Iranian Oil Already-At-Sea

If the unstated intention of the Iran war was to give far more leverage to Russia, and - paradoxically - to Iran, by legitimizing their sanctioned oil exports in a world suddenly starved of energy, then mission accomplished.

Just days after the US "temporarily" lifted sanctions on Russian oil stored on sanctioned tankers, Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that the Trump administration may suspend sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea in a bid to clamp down on energy prices.

"In the coming days we may unsanction Iranian oil that's on the water, about 140 million barrels," he said on Fox Business, adding that "In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign."

It’s the latest play weighed by the administration to stabilize the oil market against price shocks since the U.S. and Israel launched their joint operation in February. The maneuver could free up 140 million barrels of Iranian oil for global use, Bessent said.

It’s one of several “levers” Bessent said the administration has at its disposal, as Iranian attacks cripple the Strait of Hormuz, whose blockade has shuttered roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply. The administration could also make more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve available, Bessent added. The administration already started making 172 million barrels from the SPR available.

“So we have lots of levers, we’ve got plenty more that we can do,” Bessent said. “Some countries are going to do more, the U.S. could unilaterally do another SPR release to keep the price down.” 

The White House has discussed adding up to 100 million more barrels to the administration’s pledge last week, Politico reported citing a person familiar with the plan. 

“Some military advisers are concerned [about] draining so much, and are pushing for more like 50 million barrels on the concern that further destruction of oil and gas infrastructure in the [Middle East] region could leave the country vulnerable from a reserve standpoint,” this person said. 

A spokesperson for the Department of Energy — which controls the SPR — said in a statement following Bessent’s interview there were currently no plans for another release.

“The United States has taken several actions thus far to mitigate disruptions to energy markets,” DOE spokesperson Ben Dietderich said. “While the U.S. continues to consider all options to keep markets supplied, there are currently no plans for an additional SPR release.”

Bessent comments come a day after the US Administration announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act shipping law, temporarily allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move fuel, fertilizer and other goods between US ports

Which leaves unsanctioning Iranian oil as the most likely next step. 

The plan is being floated at a time when a massive, nearly $70 gap has opened in price between oil delivered to Asia via Oman, which is now trading at $167/barrell and WTI which serves the US market at $97. Meanwhile Brent, last trading at $113, is rising and is increasingly disconnected with WTI on fears the US may ban oil exports, undoing Barack Obama's 2015 decision, and landlocking US production. 

What is remarkable about the Bessent proposal is that it comes just as Iranian oil exports surged on March 17 to over 4 million barrels after being heavily depressed for the past few days. If Iran can sustain this level of exports, it would be more than double the pre-war daily average of just over $2 million barrels!

Oil and product flows through the strait have plummeted from roughly 20 million barrels a day to just “a trickle,” the International Energy Agency reported last week, marking the largest supply disruption in history. U.S. gas prices are up by more than 85 cents per gallon from the start of the war. Bessent called the blockade a “temporary chokepoint” and implored American allies to help secure the strait.

“They’re the ones who need this oil,” he said. “The U.S., we’re an oil exporter.”

Yet while China is especially reliant on Gulf oil, having been traditionally the biggest customer, China also has a strategic petroleum reserve that it quietly filled up in recent years, and which currently has ~1.5 billion barrels, or more than the entire 1.2 billion reserve across IEA member nations. The question then becomes is Beijing willing to dip into its reserve while Asian prices remain elevated (or perhaps stoop so low as to purchase US oil), or is it waiting for a more strategic moment, like the invasion of Taiwan before starting the SPR drain. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 12:15

BABA Shares Crash Most In Six Months As Net Income Plunge Overshadows AI Progress

BABA Shares Crash Most In Six Months As Net Income Plunge Overshadows AI Progress

Alibaba ADRs suffered their sharpest drop in six months during the US cash session after quarterly results revealed a massive tumble in net income and sluggish top-line growth, overshadowing yet another quarter of triple-digit expansion across its cloud and AI businesses.

Third-quarter results showed that Alibaba's core retail business remained sluggish, while its Cloud Intelligence Group posted 36% growth compared with the same period one year ago.

Revenue for the quarter rose by only 1.7% year-over-year to RMB 284.84 billion, missing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of RMB 289.79 billion. Adjusted EPS, EBITDA, and net income all fell below analyst expectations, with adjusted net income plunging 67% year-over-year.

Here's a snapshot of the earnings:

Revenue 284.84 billion yuan, +1.7% y/y, estimate 289.79 billion yuan (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group revenue 39.20 billion yuan, +3.8% y/y, estimate 41.67 billion yuan
  • Cloud Intelligence Group revenue 43.28 billion yuan, +36% y/y, estimate 42.36 billion yuan
  • China E-commerce Business Group revenue 159.35 billion yuan, +5.8% y/y, estimate 165.94 billion yuan

Adjusted earnings per American depositary receipts 7.09 yuan vs. 21.39 yuan y/y, estimate 12.34 yuan

Adjusted EBITDA 34.06 billion yuan, -45% y/y, estimate 39.62 billion yuan

Adjusted net income 16.71 billion yuan, -67% y/y, estimate 31.6 billion yuan

All Other revenue 67.34 billion yuan, -25% y/y, estimate 66.93 billion yuan

Alibaba's dismal earnings report highlights the pressure to monetize its costly AI buildout. CEO Eddie Wu, on a call with analysts earlier, offered few details on execution, implying Alibaba would need to sustain 35% annual growth to reach that goal.

"The business goal of Alibaba's AI strategy is very clear. Over the next five years, our goal is to surpass $100 billion in combined cloud and AI external revenue," Wu told the analysts.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Robert Lea and Jasmine Lyu noted, "Alibaba's push into agentic AI and creation of a "Token Hub" won't alter the e-commerce giant's AI profit outlook, which remains challenged. API (application programming interfaces) from companies including Tencent, MiniMax and Baidu is a loss-leading service despite recent price increases, reflecting high computational costs and low industry pricing. Rising cloud demand won't offset pressure in Alibaba's e-commerce and food-delivery businesses either, which remain the company's primary earnings drivers."

Alibaba is also pressing ahead with a full-stack AI strategy anchored by its proprietary T-Head chips, which management says have now entered scaled production. This signals a chip war with US tech firms and provides a tailwind for Alibaba's hardware push, as both state-backed and private-sector customers seek to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and boost domestically produced chips.

In the cash session in New York, BABA ADR fell 6.3%, the largest intraday decline since October 10, 2025, or about six months ago. Shares of BABA peaked in late fall last year and are down 14% year to date.

BABA's big drop in net income is certainly overshadowing its AI progress.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 12:00

WTI Crude Bursts Back Above $100 After US Export Ban Hopes Crushed

WTI Crude Bursts Back Above $100 After US Export Ban Hopes Crushed

Having diverged significantly overnight from Brent crude prices, WTI is now exploding higher, breaking back above $100, after hopes of a US export ban were crushed by Politico's sources.

Sophia Cai (@SophiaCai99) posted on X that:

NEW: The White House will not implement a crude export ban, and told oil executives as much at this morning’s meeting with API, per an admin official who participated in the meeting.

The reaction was immediate...

Erasing the overnight blowout in the WTI-Brent spread...

Will The White House deny this and signal the possibility?

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 11:51

CBS News Investigation Uncovers Massive Medicare Hospice Fraud In L.A. County

CBS News Investigation Uncovers Massive Medicare Hospice Fraud In L.A. County

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

An investigation by CBS News has discovered massive Medicare fraud at more than 700 out of 1,800 licensed hospice providers in Los Angeles County.

The scam utilizes stolen Medicare numbers to fraudulently enroll healthy seniors in hospice with fake terminal diagnoses, billing Medicare an average of $29,000 per patient without delivering care, to the tune of hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars.

About 31 percent of hospice and home health companies in the U.S. are registered in L.A. County but when investigators visited the addresses listed, they found no clinics, patients or healthcare workers.

Instead they found multiple red flags, including multiple hospices in one building, high rates of terminally ill patients later discharged alive, excessive billing, and staff shared across multiple companies.

The California state auditor had sounded the alarm three years ago, saying that Los Angeles County had seen the number of hospice companies increase more than six times the national average, relative to its elderly population.

Let’s put this in perspective.

The population of residents age 65 or over in California is estimated at 6.3 million while Florida estimates its population of 65+ residents at 4.9 million.

Public records show 2,279 Medicare-certified hospice organizations in California with just 208 such Medicare-certified organizations in Florida.

This raises serious questions as to why California would have more than 10 times the number of Medicare-certified hospice organizations than Florida when it has less than twice the population of 65+ residents.

According to CBS, in just one year, L.A. County hospices overbilled Medicare by $105 million, prompting the state to investigate and revoke the licenses of 280 hospices.

This latest revelation of potential Medicare fraud shows that the problem of scammers enriching themselves at taxpayer expense extends far beyond Minnesota, which has been under scrutiny for the past few months over the alleged theft of billions of taxpayer dollars via social services.

It also reveals the silver lining that a mainstream news organization is finally willing to do investigative reporting on suspected fraud rather than leaving the heavy lifting to citizen journalists like Nick Shirley, who blew the lid off taxpayer fraud in Minnesota and then turned his sights on California.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 11:40

MMT Vs Austrian Economics: Deficits, War, & Markets

MMT Vs Austrian Economics: Deficits, War, & Markets

The Keynesian-Austrian debate has raged for over a century. Questions of deficits, taxes, money printing, and their impact on inflation are at the center of the disagreement. War breaking out in the Middle East means we will see more of these three inputs, so how will they show up as inflation: in assets, consumer goods, everywhere?

Tonight, two opposing economists will answer those questions and how these macro trends are likely to impact markets.

On one side is Bard College professor Randall Wray, a leading advocate of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Opposing him is Robert Murphy, senior fellow of the Mises Institute, representing the Austrian school. The discussion will be moderated by Kevin Muir, author of the widely read Macro Tourist newsletter.

Join us on the ZeroHedge X feed or YouTube channel at 7pm ET tonight to watch the showdown. 

Deficits: Constraint Or Illusion?

Wray and MMT-schoolers argue that for a sovereign currency issuer, deficits are not inherently problematic but instead a necessary tool to support demand, employment, and financial stability.

Murphy and the Austrians conversely believe that deficits, particularly when monetized via the printing press, have all sorts of negative effects:

  • Distort price signals
  • Crowd out productive investment (by offering high-interest risk-free government bonds to wealthy investors that might otherwise loan to a business).
  • Lead to economic imbalances that must be corrected

Those “corrections”, often in the form of painful recessions, are what the Keynesians (and today’s MMTers) try very hard to avoid. But can we kick the can down the road indefinitely? With the national debt now reaching $39 trillion.

The inflation debate remains unresolved as well. MMT proponents tend to frame inflation as the only real constraint and one that should be managed through taxation and policy calibration.

From the Austrian perspective, central planning does not work. Inflation cannot be managed because governments will always be incentivized to overspend and undertax (politically unpopular). Therefore, the printing press is left to fill the gap.

Both parties will likely agree that nobody benefits from the energy shocks of the Iran war, the deficits from the $100 billion+ spent since its inception, and the diverting of limited resources towards guns/explosives that might otherwise make goods to improve our daily lives.

It is a question of how to solve our economic ailments and how to manage a crisis. Top-down or bottom-up? Government-led or free markets?

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET to hear from both sides.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 11:20

Minesweepers, Missiles, Reactors, And Oil Reserves: Trump Expected To Press Japan During Oval Office Showdown

Minesweepers, Missiles, Reactors, And Oil Reserves: Trump Expected To Press Japan During Oval Office Showdown

President Donald Trump is expected to use today's White House meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi at 11:15 ET to press Tokyo for naval support in the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran - specifically requesting minesweepers and escorts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, tapping their oil reserves, developing missiles, and in non-Iran news, are expected to announce a $40 billion nuclear power project in the southern US. 

 U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi attend a signing ceremony at Akasaka Palace state guest house in Tokyo Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025. Kiyoshi Ota/Pool Photo via AP FILE 

Despite publicly declaring that the United States “does not need the help of anyone,” Trump has repeatedly lashed out at allies for their lukewarm response and continues to urge partners to clear mines and escort tankers through the critical waterway. The request places Takaichi in an awkward position: Japan relies on the Gulf for 95% of its crude oil imports, yet any deployment of the Maritime Self-Defense Force would clash with the country’s pacifist constitution and deeply unpopular domestic sentiment toward the war.

"Japan gets 95 percent of its crude oil supplies from the Gulf," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business on Thursday ahead of the meeting. "I would expect that they would want to ensure its supplies are safe."

Japan's Navy notably has some of the best minesweepers and mine detection capabilities in the world, according to Bessent, who said it puts Tokyo in a perfect position to assist - and that they should release their oil reserves to ease pressure on global oil markets.

“I think we’re going to have a very good discussion with the prime minister,” he said. “President Trump has an excellent relationship with her.”

Trump may also seek Japanese production or co-development of missiles to replenish U.S. stocks depleted by the Iran conflict and Ukraine war. Japan maintains ties with Tehran, potentially offering a diplomatic channel, though past mediation efforts failed, Reuters reports.

Unlike Washington, Tokyo has diplomatic relations with Tehran, creating a potential avenue for diplomacy in any moves to end the war, although past attempts ​by Japan to mediate with Tehran in 2019 were unsuccessful.

Takaichi will also tell Trump that Japan intends to join the "Golden Dome", opens new tab missile defense initiative that ​is meant to detect, track ⁠and potentially counter incoming threats from orbit, two Japanese government sources said. -Reuters

Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, has so far offered no concrete assistance. Speaking to parliament on Monday, she confirmed no official U.S. request had been received but said officials were “checking the scope of possible action within the limits of its constitution.” In public comments before departure, she described the trip as “very difficult” and stressed that her “top priority is the early de-escalation of the situation.”

The visit - Takaichi's first to Washington since taking office - was originally designed to burnish the U.S.-Japan alliance, remind Trump of the China threat ahead of his now-postponed trip to Beijing, and announce a fresh wave of Japanese investment in the United States. Tokyo had already committed $550 billion in projects to win tariff relief; a second tranche of roughly $60-100 billion in critical minerals, energy, and other sectors was expected to be unveiled during the visit.

$40 Billion Reactor Project

Trump and Takaichi are also expected to unveil a major nuclear initiative at the White House today, channeling fresh capital from the US-Japan $550 billion investment fund created under their bilateral trade agreement.

GE Vernova and Hitachi, under their existing joint venture GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GVH), will construct BWRX-300 small modular reactors (SMRs) in Tennessee and Alabama, with the projects valued at up to $40 billion. Specific timelines for operation remain under wraps, but the deal highlights accelerating momentum for advanced nuclear technology.

This announcement follows the first tranche of commitments under the fund, which we covered in detail last month. Those initial projects totaled $36 billion and focused on a massive natural gas facility in Ohio, a synthetic diamond plant in Georgia, and a Gulf Coast crude export terminal.

The BWRX-300 units, each roughly 300 MW, are designed for faster factory-built deployment than traditional gigawatt-scale plants. Sites in Tennessee tie into the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Clinch River development, while Alabama locations will partner with private developers. No SMRs currently operate on US grids, but the Trump administration has prioritized regulatory streamlining and federal support to shorten timelines that have historically stretched a decade or more.

We previously covered the US-Japan trade deal and the surrounding agreements back in October of last year when investments worth over $500 billion were pledged by Japan. At the time, the announced value of investments for GE Vernova reactors was $100 billion, so this barely represents even half of that previously announced commitment. It remains unknown where the other $60 billion will be directed to.

There are also outstanding commitments from Japan to support NuScale with up to $25 billion, and Westinghouse with an additional $100 billion. The $100 billion for Westinghouse will most likely be in the form of funding the $80 billion agreement between the US, Cameco, and Brookfield for 10 AP1000s. 

Exact unit counts, financing splits, and commercial operation dates were not detailed ahead of the formal announcement. Additional energy, minerals, or defense deals could surface during the visit.

So - Iran, Oil, and Nuclear power are on the agenda, officially or not.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 10:40

Another Depraved Leftist: Many Such Cases...

Another Depraved Leftist: Many Such Cases...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

An Oregon high school principal placed on leave for celebrating the assassination of Charlie Kirk has been sentenced to five years in prison for possession of child abuse material.

Jeremy P. Williams, former head of Rainier Junior-Senior High School, now joins a disturbing list of leftists in education and politics whose public anti-conservative rage masked far darker realities threatening children.

Williams pleaded guilty to three charges of possessing sexually explicit images of minors. He was initially hit with 13 counts after the Cowlitz County Sheriff’s Office received tips from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children on Aug. 28.

He received a five-year prison term, must register as a sex offender for 15 years, and will serve 36 months of community custody upon release. The Rainier School District placed him on administrative leave after his comments celebrating Kirk’s September 2025 assassination, though the exact wording remains undisclosed.

This isn’t an isolated case. It fits a clear pattern among leftists who rail against figures like Kirk while their own conduct endangers the next generation.

The very man who first tried to muddy the waters around Kirk’s killing faced identical charges. George Zinn, 71, immediately claimed responsibility at the Utah Valley University event. He shouted, “I shot him! Now shoot me!” to create chaos and help the actual shooter escape, later admitting it was to “draw attention from the real shooter.”

Investigators searching his phone discovered child sexual abuse material — graphic images of children aged 5 to 12. Zinn pleaded guilty to sexual exploitation of a minor and obstruction of justice. He was sentenced earlier this year to prison time on those counts.

Social media quickly connected the dots to this initial false confessor, underscoring how the same circles that celebrated Kirk’s death often harbor the very predators America First policies aim to expose and remove from positions of trust.

The pattern extends further. 

Just last month, San Jose Sunrise Middle School assistant principal Ruben Guzman was arrested in an FBI-led child sex sting operation after undercover officers posed as juveniles online. Guzman, 31, communicated with someone he believed was a 13-year-old boy, offering money for sexual acts as part of a pre-Super Bowl operation that netted 11 arrests.

These cases pile up in the education sector and among self-proclaimed progressive activists. Chicago Public Schools teacher Jaron Woodsley was charged in August 2025 with receiving and distributing child pornography after sharing images via Telegram last fall.

Far-left activist Houston Curry Wade, a former part-time faculty member at Edmonds College who regularly branded Republicans “pedophiles,” was arrested in late 2025 on charges of attempted child molestation in the first degree and communication with a minor for immoral purposes after attempting to meet who he thought was a minor.

Former New Hampshire Democratic lawmaker Stacie Marie Laughton was charged in 2023 with aiding and abetting the sexual exploitation of children after forensic review found over 10,000 explicit messages and transfers involving child images from a day care center.

Florida Democratic Party treasurer Matthew Inman, also president of the local Rainbow Democrats LGBTQ+ group, was arrested in January 2025 on federal charges for receiving and distributing child sexual abuse material. Prosecutors say he shared videos of adults abusing young children with an undercover agent posing as the father of a 9-year-old boy. Inman pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 20 years in federal prison in September 2025.

In Virginia, Democratic operative Randon Alexander Sprinkle was arrested in December 2025 on charges of distribution of child pornography. The FBI affidavit detailed his sharing of files with an undercover agent, including content involving young victims; he faces a mandatory minimum of 5 years if convicted.

From educators to party officials and activists, the rot runs deep across leftist institutions.

Kirk’s assassination sparked outrage and a surge in Turning Point USA interest — over 100,000 inquiries for new chapters, including high school Club America efforts. Yet the same voices who mocked or justified his death now see their own disgusting crimes laid bare in courtrooms.

Leftist institutions and media spent weeks defending or downplaying celebrations of violence on platforms like BlueSky. Meanwhile, the very people entrusted with molding young minds — or steering Democratic politics — stand exposed as predators.

This is the inevitable outcome when ideology excuses moral collapse and institutions prioritize narrative over child safety.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 10:20

US New Home Sales Collapse By Most In 13 Years In January

US New Home Sales Collapse By Most In 13 Years In January

Despite falling mortgage rates, analysts expected December's drop in new home sales to accelerate in January... and accelerate they did... crashing a stunning 17.6% MoM (-2.7% MoM exp) - the biggest MoM drop since July 2013.

This huge MoM drop dragged sales down 11.3% YoY - the worst slide in three years...

Source: Bloomberg

This huge drop dragged the new home sales SAAR down to its lowest since 2022, catching down to existing and pending sales...

Inventories are up (Houses for sale in Jan. rose 0.4% m/m to 476,000), prices are down (Median down 6.8% YoY at $400k - lowest since 2024)...

...and remember these deals were signed in January - meaning this is not mortgage related (some suggesting weather impact - Northeast sales down 44.7% MoM, MidWest -33.9% MoM, but the scale is immense).

Of course, the future could get pretty dark as mortgage rates have surged since the war in Iran began...

...so much for helping 'affordability'. Looks like homebuilders are going to be 'incentivizing' a lot more soon.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 10:09

Escalate To Immolate?

Escalate To Immolate?

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Escalate To Immolate?

It takes a pretty big development to push the BOC, the FOMC, and the upcoming BOJ, BOE, and ECB meetings off the financial front pages - but yesterday’s and this morning’s news does in some eyes and headlines. 

We’ve warned the Iran War would ‘escalate to de-escalate’, and crucial regional desalination plants had briefly looked to become targets. Markets reacted --Brent around $112, 1-month TTF €54 at time of writing-- to Israel, in coordination with the US, striking Iran’s largest gas field, to which Tehran threatened retaliation against GCC oil and gas fields – and it has done so. 

Qatar has reported extensive damage at the world’s largest LNG export plant at Ras Laffan, which provides around 20% of global supply. Moreover, there are claims the Saudi back-up Yanbu oil pipeline that leads to the Red Sea (where the Houthis are still ominously quiet) may have been hit. That remains unconfirmed, but it would be dramatic in its impact if it were proven to be true, with millions of extra barrels of oil a day taken off the market.

Reports from Israel say the Iranian gas field was responsible for domestic supply and the blow was intended as a warning shot to Tehran to stop them targeting regional energy facilities. It seems to have had the opposite effect. The fear now is not just lower supply flows but, alongside damage done to oil wells by shut-ins, of supply destruction. The fat tail risk is we might see a downwards spiral into ‘escalate to immolate.’

Qatar expelled Iran’s military and security attaches and warned continued Iranian attacks would be met with further measures “in a manner that ensures the protection of its sovereignty, security, and national interests”; Saudi Arabia said it and the GCC have the right to take military action against Iran “if deemed necessary”; Kuwait arrested 10 Hezbollah operatives for an alleged plot to attack “vital installations”; the US is reportedly weighing reinforcements as the war enters possible new phase, including troops; Axios claims ‘Trump aides foresee Iran endgame divide: "Israel doesn't hate the chaos"’.

Moreover, Trump posted, “I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called “Strait”? That would get some of our non-responsible “Allies” in gear, and fast!!!” Next, read the long thread from shipping expert @Johnkonrad, who argues this could be a US ploy to take control of the maritime insurance industry from the UK and force European ocean carriers to reflag their commercial ships to the US to gain both insurance and physical protection in Hormuz, effectively creating a large US merchant marine without the need to build one (for now). Finally, consider that ocean freight rates are skyrocketing in places, and even giant firms are telling clients they have the right to invoke a 19th century law allowing them to drop off cargo at the nearest convenient port and leave it to the importer’s expense to store and ship it on when possible.

That was followed this morning by further suggestion --via an Economist article, it appears-- that the US might consider a crude oil export tariff or an export ban to curb energy prices. This would do little to help with expensive diesel, etc., but it would certainly throw ‘one price’ global energy markets into a further tailspin, widen the gap between Brent and WTI, already the largest in 11 years, and risk disrupting Asia and Europe to try to cushion the US. If it had the refineries to make it work, one wouldn’t rule it out – which speaks to where we may all head. 

Against these actual and potential structural, not cyclical shocks, it’s no surprise the Fed left rates on hold, as expected. Yet all they really had to add on the war was that “the implications of the developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain.” Impressive work, if true - but then again, they couldn’t have known that Ras Laffan and Yanbu would be discussed as and then immediately after they met. (Though that was evidently a risk.)

Even so, because it’s how central bank economic models work, the new Summary of Economic Projections says, ‘Move along, nothing too much to see from a major Middle East war’. It now has notably higher (if not truly high) headline and core inflation, both 2.7% in 2026, before they fall rapidly to 2.2% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. Note that our US Strategist Philip Marey has now changed his call to two Fed cuts this year, in September and December and, depending on how the war develops, we could be dropping another rate cut from our forecasts in the coming weeks. 

Using similar ‘I see no no ships’ modelling techniques, the RBA just released its latest financial stability report, which the local financial press summarises as, “Households can handle global shocks, interest rate pain.” That’s as pre-war and pre- the previous rate hike Aussie jobs data showed the total up 48.9K, well above the expected 20K, but full-time work collapsed with the unemployment rising to 4.3% from 4.1%, which was not expected. Q4 Kiwi GDP was also disappointing at just 0.2% q-o-q vs. 0.5% expected. 

In short, central banks have faced ‘exogenous’ shocks now in 2020 and 2021 from Covid; in 2022 and 2023 from the Ukraine war; in 2024 and 2025 from the Middle East via the Houthis and the Red Sea, then US tariffs; and now in 2026, from a new Middle East war. At what point in this decade might a backdrop of ‘escalate to deescalate’ going to be taken as at least partially endogenous, and ‘escalate to immolate’ as the matching very fat tail risk?

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 10:00

Trump Eyes Boots On The Ground Along Hormuz Shoreline

Trump Eyes Boots On The Ground Along Hormuz Shoreline

Several reports this week into Thursday say the Trump administration is quietly weighing a major escalation - potentially deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East as the White House struggles to map out an end game in Iran, according to Reuters.

Interestingly, the Reuters report doesn't include the phrase that Trump strongly campaigned against: 'boots on the ground'. Instead the report framed things more simply as "US weighs military reinforcements as Iran war enters possible new phase."

Are the American people being slowly prepped for ground action? Officials say the buildup would give Trump "additional options" with the war having dragged far past the initial pledges of 'days' or some kind of brief in and out Venezuela-style op.

One section showing how jagged & mountainous some areas around the Strait of Hormuz can be, via Shutterstock

Driving all of this is of course control of the Strait of Hormuz, given there are few options for guarantee tanker traffic through the chokepoint. After the Pentagon bombed some 90 military sites on Iran's oil export hub Kharg Island last weekend, the US is running up against the obvious limitations of a purely air and naval campaign.

In a scenario that screams escalation, discussions now include deploying US troops directly to Iran's coastline to secure the passage. The even more aggressive option is potential ground operations targeting Kharg - again given it is the nerve center handling roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports.

There's also been talk of some kind of special forces raid to secure Iran's enriched uranium and key nuclear infrastructure, which some military analysts consider to be essentially a 'suicidal' mission.

One US official admitted to Reuters that putting troops around the Hormuz or on Kharg Island would be "very risky" - given Iran’s ability to hammer the island with missiles and drones.

There's also the reality of Iran's shoreline itself. It is jagged, mountainous, rocky, and narrow at points - giving the Iranian side a defensive advantage, also for hit and run style guerilla tactics.

As a reminder of some important commentary we featured earlier, most Americans have little understanding or concept of Iran's size in terms of geography or population. The ethno-religious make-up of the sprawling Mideast/West Asian nation is also deeply important.

Suffice it to say, Iran's population is more than double (over 90 million people) that of neighboring Iraq's. Iran is also the size of almost half the European continent. All of this is crucial for attempting to visualize what American military escalation there might mean, given the Trump White House has clearly not ruled out American boots on the ground amid the unfolding 'Operation Epic Fury'. And we are only now approaching three weeks in.

Consider: the US spent two blood-soaked decades occupying Iraq (again, significantly smaller than the Islamic Republic). Russia has spent over four years on its military operation in Ukraine, and Iran dwarfs Ukraine in size.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 09:45

Euro, Bunds Slide After ECB Warns Of Stagflation

Euro, Bunds Slide After ECB Warns Of Stagflation

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, warning that the war in Iran could shift its expectations for inflation and the economy.

The deposit rate was left at 2% on Thursday - as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Officials said that leaves them well positioned, reiterating in a statement that they’ll act one meeting at a time.

“The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.

It will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices. Its medium-term implications will depend both on the intensity and duration of the conflict and on how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy.

The Governing Council is well positioned to navigate this uncertainty.”

With oil and gas markets getting another jolt earlier in the day, it said once again that it’s “determined to ensure that inflation stabilizes at the 2% target in the medium term.”

2Y Bund yields are up strongly overnight (spiking on the BoE's surprisingly hawkish tone). Post-ECB, yields are flat (down then up) as traders expected a little more hawkishness...

The EUR is sliding modestly post-ECB...

Perhaps most notably, the new quarterly ECB outlook, based on inputs that ran until March 11 to account for the start of the war, pointed to faster inflation and slower growth...

Separate scenario analysis suggests that “a prolonged disruption in the supply of oil and gas would result in inflation being above, and growth being below, the baseline projections,” the ECB said.

How badly Europe is affected by the the fighting hinges on its duration - still the biggest unknown.

The European Union has warned inflation could surpass 3% in 2026 if Brent oil remains near $100 a barrel and gas prices stay elevated for a prolonged period.

Some economists see it even rising above 4% if problems persist.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 09:38

Ukraine Peace Talks Are Suspended, Likely Indefinitely, Thanks To The Iran War

Ukraine Peace Talks Are Suspended, Likely Indefinitely, Thanks To The Iran War

Since the opening of Trump's Operation Epic Fury and America's escalating war in Iran, now soon to reach three weeks, Moscow and Kiev have several times confirmed there's been a pause in peace talks. The last instance the three parties met was in February in Geneva, soon before the Iran conflict began. Days into US-Israeli Iran operations, a new round scheduled for March 5 in Abu Dhabi was postponed. This as Iranian 'retaliatory' strikes began to rain down on the Gulf.

On Thursday, one regional journalist has stated based on a fresh update from Putin's office: "Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov makes it official: trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the USA are suspended (apparently indefinitely) thanks to the Iran War. I suspect Moscow and Kyiv are secretly relieved to be done with the charade."

via Reuters

Indeed just moments before, Peskov announced that the work of the trilateral Russia-US-Ukraine group on security issues is effectively on permanent pause.

At the same time, he did clarify that work on organizing prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine continues, per that statement in Kommersant.

Also, the Kremlin has sought to make clear that Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev continues to engage with the American side on economic issues, as part of ongoing improvement in bilateral ties with Washington.

Washington's attention has clearly shifted to the expanding Middle East conflict, to the point even of lifting some sanctions on Russian oil transit to India, and Ukraine too has confirmed there are no more talks on truce.

Zelensky early in the Iran war signaled Ukraine is ready to resume the diplomatic track once conditions allow. "As soon as the security situation and the broader political context allow us to resume the trilateral diplomatic work, it will be done. Ukraine is ready for it," he explained at the time.

But the Ukrainian government is still rejecting the prospect of territorial concessions, with Zelensky early this month asserting that, "For some reason, some people in the world have begun to take Putin’s words at face value - that if Ukraine were not present in Donbas [the Donetsk and Luhansk region], the war would end. Despite all the words previously said by Russia, the aggression has only intensified, and we simply cannot trust the Russian side."

Meanwhile, Russia's military has kept reporting steady gains in the east, announcing the capture of 12 settlements in just the opening couple weeks of March. It is close to having hold over all of the Donbass - one key objective of Putin's in the 'Special Military Operation'.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 09:20

Civil Rights Icon Cesar Chavez's Family, Officials React To Sexual Assault Accusations

Civil Rights Icon Cesar Chavez's Family, Officials React To Sexual Assault Accusations

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The family of Cesar Chavez said they were devastated by allegations of sexual abuse that surfaced against the American civil rights icon in a report published March 18, as officials began canceling celebrations and holidays in honor of him.

“This is deeply painful for our family,” the Chavez family told The Epoch Times in an email.

“We wish peace and healing to the survivors and commend their courage to come forward. As a family steeped in the values of equity and justice, we honor the voices of those who feel unheard and who report sexual abuse.”

The New York Times published an investigation stating that the labor leader, especially of farmworkers and Latino immigrant workers, allegedly sexually abused and groomed minors as young as 13 who worked in the labor movement.

According to the report, renowned labor leader Dolores Huerta—who cofounded the National Farm Workers Association in California with Chavez in 1962, which later became the United Farm Workers (UFW) union—also came forward with her own allegations later in the day.

Huerta said in a public statement that she had “two separate sexual encounters with Cesar” that resulted in the birth of two children.

“I am nearly 96 years old, and for the last 60 years have kept a secret because I believed that exposing the truth would hurt the farmworker movement I have spent my entire life fighting for,” Huerta said.

Huerta, who was in her 30s at the time, said she kept the pregnancies secret, according to Huerta. She said she arranged for the babies to be given to other families who “could give them stable lives.”

“I have never identified myself as a victim, but now understand that I am a survivor—of violence, of sexual abuse, of domineering men who saw me, and other women, as property, or things to control,” Huerta said.

The national Women’s March Foundation called on cities, school districts, and public institutions across the United States—including Congress—to remove the name of Cesar Chavez from streets, classrooms, and public buildings and replace it with the name of Dolores Huerta.

“We stand with Dolores Huerta and all survivors of sexual violence,” the foundation said and issued a call to action.

The Chavez family said they were still processing the information they’ve learned.

“We carry our own memories of the person we knew,” the family said. “Someone whose life included work and contributions that matter deeply to many people. We remain committed to farmworkers and the cause [Chavez] and countless others championed and continue to champion. We ask for understanding and privacy as we continue to process this difficult information.”

Dolores Huerta, the labor leader, civil rights activist, and co-founder of the National Farm Workers Association, is seen at the California Democratic Party's 2025 State Convention at the Anaheim Convention Center in Anaheim, Calif., on May 31, 2025. AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File

The Cesar Chavez Foundation also issued a statement, saying the allegations were “disturbing.”

“We are deeply shocked and saddened by what we are hearing,” the foundation said. “The Foundation is working with leaders in the Farmworker Movement to be responsive to these allegations, support the people who may have been harmed by his actions, and ensure we are united and guided by our commitment to justice and community empowerment.”

The accusations against Chavez—who was born in the outskirts of Yuma, Arizona, to Mexican-born parents and died more than three decades ago—drew reaction from officials throughout the day, with some canceling state holidays and events celebrating him.

The UFW Foundation announced it had canceled all Cesar Chavez Day activities.

“As a women-led organization that exists to empower communities, the allegations about abusive behavior by Cesar Chavez go against everything that we stand for,” the foundation stated.

“These disturbing allegations involve inappropriate behavior by Cesar Chavez with young women and minors, they are shocking, indefensible, and something we are taking seriously.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom was asked about the allegations during a press conference. The state marks Cesar Chavez Day on March 31 as an official state holiday.

“None of us knew. I think all of us are processing it and these kids have to process it now,” Newsom said.

“Three dozen schools in this state are named after Cesar Chavez. So, we’re just going to have to reflect on all of that, and reflect on a farm movement and labor movement that was much bigger than one man and celebrate that.

“I’m also mindful that it’s one thing for me to process … for young kids this is hard. I hope we have some grace in that respect,” he said.

“It’s a sensitive moment.”

The governor’s office told The Epoch Times it was open to conversations with the state Legislature on making any statutory changes that might be necessary in the future regarding the allegations.

It declined to comment on whether the governor would make changes to Cesar Chavez Day at the end of the month.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has canceled the Cesar Chavez Day holiday in his state. Abbott also directed all state agencies to comply with the cancellation.

“In the upcoming legislative session, I will work with Texas lawmakers to remove Cesar Chavez Day from state law altogether,” Abbott stated in a post on X.

“Reports of the horrific and widely acknowledged sexual assault allegations against Cesar Chavez rightfully dismantle the myth of this progressive hero and undermine the narrative that elevated Chavez as a figure worthy of official state celebration.”

A councilman in Fresno, California, said during a news conference that the city would remove Chavez’s name from city streets.

New Mexico Sen. Ben Ray Lujan also called for Chavez’s name to be removed from landmarks, institutions, and honors on a national level.

“We cannot celebrate someone who carried out such disturbing harm,” Lujan stated in a post on X.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/19/2026 - 09:00

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