PayPal Suffers Worst Drop In Four Years After Profit Miss, CEO Set To Exit

PayPal shares in New York premarket trading plunged 17%. If the losses hold through the cash session, this would mark the largest decline in four years. The selloff was sparked after the payments company reported adjusted profit and revenue that fell short of Bloomberg Consensus estimates, along with news that CEO Alex Chriss will be replaced.

CFO Jamie Miller will serve as interim CEO until HP CEO Enrique Lores replaces Chriss. Newly appointed board chair David Dorman said that execution under the current CEO has failed to meet board expectations (translation: share price is too low), despite some progress.

"While some progress has been made in a number of areas over the last two years, the pace of change and execution was not in line with the Board's expectations," Dorman told investors.

Fourth-quarter earnings missed the average analyst estimates tracked by Bloomberg, with the payments company highlighting weakness from US retail spending and headwinds abroad.

Important to note that fourth-quarter EPS of $1.23 and revenue of $8.68 billion both missed expectations, while full-year EPS of $5.31 fell below prior guidance of $5.35 to $5.39. Adding to investor concern, signs of softening consumer spending emerged as growth in PayPal-branded online checkouts slowed sharply to 1%, down from 6% a year earlier.

CFO Miller warned in October that worsening macroeconomic headwinds (a K-shaped economy) would affect the firm's ability to achieve its longer-term targets. She and other executives have struggled to monetize the company's payment services.

Here's a snapshot of fourth quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Adjusted EPS $1.23 vs. $1.19 y/y, estimate $1.28 (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Net revenue $8.68 billion, +3.7% y/y, estimate $8.79 billionTransaction revenue $7.82 billion, +3% y/y, estimate $7.95 billion

• Other value added services revenue $857 million, +10% y/y, estimate $838.8 million

Transaction margin dollars $4.03 billion, +2.5% y/y, estimate $4.07 billion

Total payment volume $475.14 billion, +8.5% y/y, estimate $471.51 billion

• Venmo total payment volume $85.79 billion, +13% y/y, estimate $84.05 billion

Payment transactions 6.75 billion, +2% y/y, estimate 6.72 billion

Active customer accounts 439 million, +1.2% y/y, estimate 439.04 million

Adjusted operating income $1.55 billion, +3.2% y/y, estimate $1.59 billion

Adjusted operating margin 17.9% vs. 18% y/y, estimate 18.1%

Adjusted free cash flow $2.10 billion, -0.1% y/y, estimate $2.03 billion

US revenue y/y growth 4%

International revenue y/y growth 1%

Total operating expenses $7.17 billion, +3.5% y/y, estimate $7.26 billion

As for the outlook, PayPal is guiding to muted growth and margin pressure in the near term

First Quarter Forecast

• Sees mid-single digit decline in adjusted EPS growth y/y

• Sees roughly flat transaction margin dollars

Year Forecast

• Sees low-single digit decline to slightly positive in adjusted EPS growth y/y

• Sees roughly flat transaction margin dollars

• Sees adjusted free cash flow above $6 billion

• Sees capital expenditure about $1 billion, estimate $997.8 million

The combination of the fourth quarter miss and the CEO being replaced sent shares tumbling in premarket trading, down about 17% around 0800 ET - the largest decline since the 25% crash on Feb. 2, 2022.

What is this stock pattern called?

What happens to PayPal shares when X Payments goes live?

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:40

Futures Rise As Tech Gains On Palantir's "Cosmic Reward"

Stock futures are higher, led by tech, while metals rebound and global markets more than retrace Friday/Monday losses. Only bitcoin continues to slide on laughable fears that Kevin Warsh will somehow shrink the Fed's balance sheet. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% and Nasdaq futures gain 0.5% after blockbuster results from Palantir renewed the AI trade. Pre-market, Mag7 names are all higher ex-AAPL with PLTR the standout which should aid the Software reboot. Palantir’s forecast for 61% sales growth this year is helping the AI narrative, with CEO Alexander Karp describing the company’s accelerating revenue as “a cosmic reward” for the data analytics firm’s shareholders. Energy, healthcare, and Staples are weaker pre-mkt as all other sectors are big higher. European stocks briefly traded into record territory, while technology stocks led gains in Asia as South Korea’s chipmakers are surging again. Elsewhere, dip-buyers are crowding into metals: gold is +5.5%, silver +9.4% with WTI flat and Ags bid. Bond yields are flat to +1bp with USD flat. Today’s macro focus is on the vote to reopen the government, where Trump told GOP not to block the deal; we also get the January vehicle sales update. NFP / JOLTS have been delayed with release dates to be updated after the gov’t reopens. Earnings remain front and center, with PepsiCo, Pfizer and AMD due today. . Bitcoin remained under pressure.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher ex-Apple which is again depressed by soaring memory prices (Alphabet +1.2%, Tesla +1.1%, Amazon +0.7%, Microsoft +0.2%, Nvidia +0.7%, Meta +0.1%, Apple -0.7%)

• Gold and silver miners including Newmont (NEM) gain as precious metal prices climb out of a three-day slide. Newmont rises 4%.
• AES Corp. (AES) rises 8% after BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners is said to team up with EQT AB in a bid to acquire the power company.
• Eaton Corp. (ETN) falls 5% after the power equipment company forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2026 of $13.00 to $13.50, a range with a midpoint below analysts’ expectations.
• Fabrinet (FN) falls 4% after the engineering and manufacturing services company’s results showed component constraints pressuring the datacom business. However, analysts are broadly positive on the prospects going forward.
• HP Inc. (HPQ) slips 2% as CEO Enrique Lores stepped down to lead PayPal Holdings.
• Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) rises 11% after the company forecast revenue for fiscal 2026 that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations, a boost for the data analytics company after its shares have gotten off to a lackluster start so far this year.
• PayPal Holdings (PYPL) falls 15% after the fintech reported profit and revenue that fell short of expectations. The company also said Chief Executive Officer Alex Chriss will be replaced by HP Inc. CEO Enrique Lores.
• Rambus (RMBS) slides 8% after analysts note that a supply chain hiccup weighed on the semiconductor device company’s first-quarter outlook. The stock has performed strongly of late, rising about 24% so far this year.
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI) climbs 3% after JPMorgan upgraded to overweight. The bank is positive about the company’s execution and “more tenable valuation.”
• Teradyne (TER) soars 20% after the semiconductor manufacturing company forecast revenue for the first quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate.

In corporate news, Elon Musk confirmed the combination of SpaceX and xAI in a deal that values the enlarged entity at $1.25 trillion, with the company said to still be planning an IPO later this year. Musk’s rationale is that the least expensive way to do AI computations within two to three years will be in space. Bloomberg estimates that xAI is burning through ~$11 billion in cash in 2025, constraining its ability to seek outsized funding rounds similar to OpenAI. In other corporate news, Uber is rolling out its ride-hailing service in the Chinese gambling hub of Macau, expanding into a new Asian market for the first time in years. Watch shares of professional publishers after Anthropic released an AI-powered productivity tool for companies’ in-house legal teams.

Traders’ appetite for risk rebounded after a steep drop in precious metals triggered a pullback from stocks and crypto at the end of last week. Strong US manufacturing data added to optimism, showing that the economy is on a sound footing as the earnings season rolls on. 

“There is a lot of liquidity out there and it’s remaining committed to financial assets,” said Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance. “It’s rotating within the markets, and the macro backdrop is supportive of that continuing."

In politics, Republican opposition to Trump’s deal with Democrats to end the partial government shutdown began to crumble late Monday as two conservative holdouts agreed to end their threatened blockade. And an analysis of results from a state senate district vote in the Fort Worth area showed that a Texas Democrat’s shock win was powered by big shifts among Latino voters.

Looking at earnings season, out of the 178 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 79% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 16% have missed. PepsiCo reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter profit and announced a $10 billion share buyback. Merck's forecast for 2026 sales and profit missed Wall Street’s expectations. 

Investors will now turn their attention Tuesday to a slate of earnings, including Advanced Micro Devices Inc., after a favorable reception to Palantir’s report. Traders are watching for signs that AMD is challenging Nvidia Corp.’s dominance in the market for artificial-intelligence accelerators as they look more broadly than the Magnificent Seven for winners of the AI trade. AMD has rallied more than 50% since October, while Nvidia remained largely flat.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.2%, having surrendered most of an earlier advance that took the index to an all-time peak. Miners outperform, tracking a rebound in precious metals. Meanwhile, a drop in Publicis Groupe weighed on media shares. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Amundi shares advanced as much as 6.4% to a fresh high after Europe’s largest asset manager reported what RBC says is a “solid” update and announced a €500m share buyback
• The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources Index gained 2.4%, with gold and silver advancing as dip buyers crowded into precious metals following an abrupt unwinding of a record-breaking rally
• Plus500 shares rise as much as 8.5%, climbing to a new all-time high, after the trading platform announced its entry into the US retail prediction markets through a deal struck with Kalshi Exchange
• ING Groep shares gain as much as 3.1%, hitting a fresh 2007-high, after analysts at Deutsche Bank upgraded the bank and significantly increased their estimates
• Swatch shares gain as much as 3.2% after Bank of America upgraded to neutral from underperform on optimism that the worst of the decline is over for watchmakers
• R&S jumps as much as 24%, the most on record, after the Swiss transformers manufacturer posted order intakes for the full year that surpassed the consensus estimate
• Demant shares plunge as much as 12% to the lowest in three years after the Danish hearing-aid maker provided guidance for 2026 that was below expectations
• Publicis shares drop as much as 9%. Despite strong results for the fourth quarter and for the full year, analysts note the advertising agency’s conservative growth guidance for 2026 implies a slowdown
• Zalando shares fall as much as 8.5% as Morgan Stanley warned the clothing retailer continued to face risks stemming from social commerce
• Siltronic shares slide as much as 6.8% after the silicon wafer manufacturer warned the challenging market is expected to persist in 2026, which analysts at Jefferies believe will weigh on expectations
• Schaeffler shares drop as much as 4.5% after UBS downgraded the stock to sell from neutral, warning its current market cap reflects far more ambitious adoption curves and economics for its humanoid robots than he sees likely
• Sartorius shares drop as much as 3.6% in Frankfurt, reversing an earlier 4.6% gain. Barclays analysts said it expected “some slight share price weakness today on implied downside risk to consensus estimates”
• De Nora drops as much as 10% as Kepler Cheuvreux trimmed its price target on the Italian water technologies specialist, noting 2026 will be a lackluster year,

Asian stocks extended a rally on Tuesday, more than erasing the previous session’s decline, on a rebound in precious metals and resurgent excitement around artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 3.1%, and was on pace for the best day since April 10. Most regional markets were in the green, with South Korean’s Kospi surging 6.8% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix helped lead the broader Asian benchmark higher. Stocks also rose more than 3% in Japan, and closed higher in Taiwan and Australia as well. Hong Kong shares edged down. Indian equities also rallied after President Donald Trump announced tariff cuts on the country’s goods. Risk sentiment broadly recovered on Tuesday, with investors piling back into semiconductors and AI-related shares. Palantir Technologies  forecast fiscal 2026 revenue that significantly beat expectations, while Elon Musk’s SpaceX confirmed a $1.25 trillion merger with xAI.

The rout in metals prices is disruptive for equities in the short term and has “created some spillover effects from a liquidity perspective,” Kinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Equities are expected to continue rising this year, driven by AI implementation and investment that will support earnings growth, he added

In FX, the dollar pared an earlier fall with the yen now the weakest of the G-10 currencies, down 0.2%. The Aussie is still leading after the RBA hiked interest rates.

In rates,treasuries posted a small retreat, with the 10-year yield up one basis point at 4.29%. European government bonds also dip.

In commodities, oil prices are steady with WTI crude futures near $62 a barrel. Spot silver is up 8% to about $86/oz while gold is near $4,900/oz.

Looking at today's calendar, Wards total vehicle sales are expected during the day. JOLTS jobs data for December was on the schedule but has been delayed by the partial government shutdown. Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (8am) and Bowman (9:40am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.4%, CAC 40 +0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.29%
• VIX -0.1 points at 16.24
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1190.87
• euro little changed at $1.1789
• WTI crude +0.1% at $62.22/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Republican opposition to Trump’s deal with Democrats to end the partial US government shutdown began to crumble late Monday. The president told House holdouts via social media to pass the measure “IMMEDIATELY!” A chamber vote is expected today. BBG
• Elon Musk is merging SpaceX and xAI in a deal valuing the new entity at $1.25 trillion, with SpaceX still planning an IPO later this year, according to people familiar. BBG
• Reports out Monday afternoon said OpenAI is unsatisfied with some of Nvidia’s latest artificial intelligence chips, and it has sought alternatives since last year, eight sources familiar with the matter said, potentially complicating the relationship between the two highest-profile players in the AI boom. RTRS
• US President Trump said announcing the creation of US strategic critical minerals reserve. We are launching Project Vault today. USD 2bln from the private sector. USD 10bln funding from US Exim Bank.
• Australia’s central bank has lifted interest rates for the first time since 2023,one of the first big economies to tighten its monetary policy, in an effort to combat inflation. The Bank increased rates by 25bps to 3.85%. FT
• China has let the interest rate on a one-year policy loan to banks drop to a record low, according to people familiar with the situation, lowering funding costs so as to revive economic growth. BBG
• Demand softened at Japan’s 10-year bond auction as investors grew cautious ahead of a snap election, keeping yields elevated amid equity gains and ongoing fiscal concerns. BBG
• Ukraine has agreed with western partners that persistent Russian violations of any future ceasefire agreement would be met by a coordinated military response from Europe and the US. FT
• French inflation fell more sharply than expected last month to a 5 year low, raising further possibility that eurozone inflation could be below the European Central Bank’s target for longer this year. Consumer prices were 0.4% higher than in January 2025, down from a 0.7% increase in December. WSJ
• Euro-zone banks unexpectedly tightened corporate credit standards at the end of 2025, the ECB said in its quarterly Bank Lending Survey. BBG
• President Trump said he is seeking USD 1bln of damages from Harvard.
• House Rules panel advances the Senate funding package.

Trade/Tariffs

• Kremlin's Spokesperson said Russia have not heard any statement from India about halting Russian oil purchases, adding that they intend to continue developing their relations with India.

Earnings

• NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.35 (exp. 3.31), Revenue 3.34bln (exp. 3.31bln). Q1 Guidance:. EPS 2.77-3.17 (exp. 2.99). Revenue 3.05-3.15bln (exp. 3.09bln).
• OpenAI has determined it needs alternatives to NVIDIA’s (NVDA) latest AI chips in some cases, has sought alternatives since last year. OpenAI is unsatisfied with the speed at which NVIDIA’s hardware can spit out answers to ChatGPT users for complex problems.
• Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.25 EPS (exp. 0.23), Revenue 1.41bln (exp. 1.34bln). Said sales to US businesses in 2026 are expected to grow at least 115% to more than USD 3.14bln.Outlook:. FY revenue 7.182-7.198bln (exp. 6.3bln). FY adj. operating income 4.126-4.142bln (exp. 3.14bln). Q1 adj. operating income 870-874mln (exp. 641mln). Q1 revenue 1.532-1.536bln (exp. 1.33bln).

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher with several bourses firmly recovering from the prior day's sell-off, as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where markets rallied after a strong ISM Manufacturing report. ASX 200 climbed higher with tech and miners leading the advances, although further upside was capped as the focus turned to the RBA which hiked rates for the first time in over two years and sounded hawkish on inflation. Nikkei 225 surged following recent currency weakness and gained a firm footing above 54,000 to hit a record intraday high. KOSPI outperformed in a turnaround from the prior day's bloodbath with the Korea Exchange activating a sidecar earlier in the session to briefly halt program trading after a sharp rise in the local benchmark. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially lagged with early pressure seen across tech stocks, despite no immediate obvious catalysts, and with some attributing it to VAT hike concerns, while the Hang Seng TECH Index briefly re-entered bear market territory after dropping more than 20% from its October high. However, Chinese markets then pared their losses alongside the broad rally in Asia.

Top Asian News

• China's No1/central document includes plans to improve and consolidate soybean production. Intend to stabilise food and oil output. To diversify agricultural product imports.
• Earthquake of magnitude 5.0 hits near the east coast of Honshu, Japan.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama continues to refrain from commenting on intervention data and said PM Takaichi talked about FX benefits as a general fact, and didn't specifically emphasise merits in a weak yen.
• Nintendo (7974 JT) President said memory price rises not having a major impact on earnings.
• Nintendo (7974 JT) - Q3 (JPY): Operating income 155.21bln (exp. 180.7bln), 9M switch sales -66% Y/Y; sees FY net sales 2.25tln (exp. 2.37tln).

European bourses (+0.4%) opened entirely in the green, but sentiment has since waned a touch off best levels, with a couple of indices now slightly in the red. European sectors opened with a positive bias but are now mixed. Basic Resources outperform, led higher by strength in underlying metals prices. Media lags, pressured by losses in Publicis (-7.4%) and ProSiebenSat.1 Media (-2.2%) post-earnings.

Top European News

• French Finance Minister said the G7 needs to agree on a joint instrument to address global macroeconomic imbalances. Joint instruments can have a sectoral focus, such as rare earths.
• French Finance Minister Lescure said that the 2026 budget will reduce the deficit to 5.0% from 5.4%, GDP growth of 1% so far in 2026 is a good start.

FX

• DXY resumed trade overnight on a softer footing following yesterday's post-ISM recovery (which printed its first expansion in 12 months and at the fastest pace since 2022). The index gradually pared those losses as the morning progressed, to now trade flat, and at the upper end of a 97.34-97.62 range. On the data front, it was also announced that the BLS has delayed the December JOLTS report due today and the January NFP report that was scheduled for Friday owing to the partial government shutdown. With a House vote expected as early as today, the data could be published next week if the vote passes, ING posits.
• Antipodeans are firmer with outperformance in the AUD amid the rebound in risk appetite and metal prices, while further upside was seen after the RBA meeting, where the central bank hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, and stated inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. Governor Bullock declined to provide any forward guidance on the future path of interest rates. AUD/USD has come off best levels amid the aforementioned recovery in the DXY but still holds onto most of its gains in a 0.6945-0.7050 current daily range.
• Other G10s are flat/lower against the USD, with EUR & GBP flat whilst the JPY lags a touch. For the latter, there was some commentary via Japanese Finance Minister Katayama who reiterated that PM’s Takaichi latest commentary on a weak JPY was a general fact and didn't specifically emphasise merits in a weak JPY. Focus now on the Japanese snap election, where discussions regarding an LDP "supermajority" is getting more attention. Elsewhere, EUR digested a cooler-than-expected prelim French HICP report which had little impact on the single currency.

Central Banks

• RBA hikes the Cash Rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as expected, with the decision unanimous, while it stated that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. A wide range of data confirms inflation has picked up materially. Broad measures of wage growth continue to be strong. Uncertainty in the global economy remains significant but has so far not affected Australia. Job market conditions are a little tight. Capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed. Private-sector demand is growing faster than expected. There are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation and the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive. Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy:. Underlying inflation is higher than expected. Underlying inflation rose to 3.4% over the year to the December quarter, which was higher than expected three months ago and substantially higher than expected in the August Statement. GDP growth has continued to pick up, with private demand growth surprisingly strong. GDP grew by 2.1% over the year to the September quarter, which was around our estimate of the economy’s potential growth rate. Labour market conditions have been stable. The unemployment rate has been broadly stable at around 4.25% in recent quarters.
• RBA Governor Bullock said does not know if this will be a tightening cycle and cannot rule anything out or in.
• RBA Governor Bullock said pulse of inflation is too strong and that high inflation hurts all Australians. said:. Board thinks inflation will take longer to return to the target. We cannot allow inflation to get away from us. Will not give forward guidance and the board will remain focused on data. Did not discuss a 50bps rate increase.
• US President Trump said Fed chair nominee will do good and that investigation into Fed Chair Powell should be taken to the end.
• ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4) : Overall credit terms and conditions tightened for loans to firms and consumer credit, while they eased for housing loans.
• BOK Minutes suggests one board member said further rate cuts should only be considered after risks related to FX and housing markets ease.
• ECB Bank Lending Survey (Jan): Banks tightened credit standards for firms, citing higher perceived risks amid lower risk tolerance; Credit standards eased slightly for housing loans, but tightened further for consumer credit.

Fixed Income

• JGBs spent the overnight session under modest pressure, with losses of just under 15 ticks at most in a narrow 131.41-60 band. Specifics for Japan are a little light as markets count down to Sunday's election, and the narrative is increasingly pointing to a convincing LDP victory, with a 'super majority' featuring more in discussions around the potential outcome.
• USTs are under modest pressure after contained APAC trade. Pressure that is most pronounced at the short end, with yields bid across the curve and flattening as things stand, in a marginal extension on the post-ISM flattener. Today's docket has been trimmed by the US shutdown, as the BLS will not be updating until there is a resolution and as such, JOLTS will not print. While a funding deal should pass very shortly, Friday's NFP will also be pushed until at least next week. Currently, USTs trade at the low-end of 111-15 to 111-20+ parameters, at a WTD low, taking out last week's trough by half a tick but clear of the 111-09 YTD base.
• Bunds came under pressure early doors, directionally in-fitting with the above, but with magnitudes a little more pronounced in limited newsflow and light volumes. A move that was perhaps a function of the constructive European risk tone at the time. Bunds as low as 127.74 at the time and currently hold a handful of ticks above that trough with losses of c. 15 ticks on the session. Data-wise, French prelim. HICP came in cooler-than-expected across the board, lifting EGBs generally at the time. A series that works to offset some of the hawkish impulses from the prelim. Thereafter, a 2035 Green Bund auction had little impact on the benchmark.
• Gilts gapped lower by 12 ticks, acknowledging the above. UK specifics are very light aside from a well received 2035 auction, which garnered a b/c above the 3x mark. Focus now turns to the BoE on Thursday, where rates are expected to be kept unchanged.
• UK sold GBP 4.25bln 4.75% 2035 Gilt: b/c 3.63x (prev. 3.26x), average yield 4.585% (prev. 4.456%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.3bps).
• Germany sells EUR 1.35bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.50% 2035 Green Bund: b/c 2.01x (prev. 2.2x), average yield 2.79% (prev. 2.52%), retention 10.0% (prev. 4.2%)
• Ireland's NTMA raises EUR 5bln from the sale of its new 10 year benchmark bond.
• South Korea is to sell 3-year and 5-year USD-denominated bonds.
• Italy's Tesoro opens book to sell new 15-year BTP bond via syndication, with guidance seen +10bps to 2040 BTP.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks continued to extend on Monday's losses, with WTI and Brent nearing USD 61/bbl and USD 65/bbl, respectively. Oil prices traded muted throughout the APAC session but were pressured following comments by Russia's Deputy PM Novak, saying they have a surplus in fuel supplies. Since, benchmarks have edged a little higher to now trade flat on the session.
• Nat Gas futures continue to fall, with Dutch TTF returning to EUR 32/MWh as concerns over the Arctic storm affecting gas production ease.
• Precious metals have brushed off the recent tarnish following the aggressive selloff in recent sessions. Spot gold has regained the USD 4900/oz handle as being as low as USD 4400/oz in Monday's session. Investors have been highlighting that the selloff is just a correction and that underlying drivers for gold, mainly central bank buying and ETF inflows, remain strong.
• 3M LME Copper continues to rebound, alongside precious metals, as the red metal extends to a session high of USD 13.48k/t. The bounce from the recent selloff comes amid a broader reversal of the risk tone and reports that China could expand its strategic copper reserves. China maintains stockpiles of major base metals such as copper and cobalt to stabilise commodity prices and ease raw material cost pressures. The expansion of the reserves comes amid the recent volatility of metals prices.
• Russian Deputy PM Novak said oil demand and supply are in balance.
• Kuwait Petroleum Corp. intends to invite global oil firms to assist Kuwait Oil in the development of offshore fields, Bloomberg reported.
• China raises its gas and diesel prices by CNY 205 and 195 respectively, effective February 4th.
• Russia's Deputy PM Novak said they have a surplus in fuel supplies, adding that domestic diesel and gas supplies are sufficient.
• Shanghai Gold Exchange to adjust margin rations to 17% (prev. 16%) for some gold and silver contracts, and widen the daily price limit to 16% (prev. 15%) as of the 4th February settlement.
• China could expand its strategic copper reserves and explore a commercial reserve system with state-owned firms.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian Deputy PM Novak said oil demand and supply are in balance.
• Kremlin's Spokesperson said Russia have not heard any statement from India about halting Russian oil purchases, adding that they intend to continue developing their relations with India.
• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said the modernisation of their nuclear triad is at a very advanced stage.
• Russia's Deputy PM Novak said they have a surplus in fuel supplies, adding that domestic diesel and gas supplies are sufficient.
• Russia and China held new round of stability talks to support multilateralism.
• Ukraine agrees multi-tier plan for enforcing any ceasefire with Russia, according to FT.
• reported note that witnesses say loud explosions heard in Ukraine's capital of Kyiv.
• US President Trump said doing very well with Ukraine and Russia and think we'll have some good news. said:. Putin agreed to no missiles going into Kyiv. We are talking with Iran and we'll see how that goes.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran's Vice President said a new chapter of Iran's nuclear achievements will be unveiled.
• Iranian official said that a US aircraft carrier has retreated and is now near Yemen.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russia and China held new round of stability talks to support multilateralism.
• Venezuela's Interim President Rodriguez met with US Envoy Loro Dogu.

US Event Calendar

• 8:00 am: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on US Economy
• 9:40 am: Fed’s Bowman in Moderated Conversation

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have seen a huge turnaround over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.54%) closing just shy of its record high, with another +0.25% gain in futures this morning after being over -2% lower than current levels this time yesterday. The recovery had several drivers, but the biggest was the ISM manufacturing index, which unexpectedly surged to its highest level since 2022. So that led to growing optimism on the 2026 outlook, along with a classic risk-on move. Meanwhile in Europe, it was a similar story as the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) hit another all-time high, whilst the sharp decline in oil prices helped to ease concern on the inflation side. So it was generally a strong day, with precious metals still the obvious exception, as gold prices (-4.76%) fell to $4,661/oz, whilst silver (-6.96%) saw a fresh plunge that left it down by nearly a third in the last two sessions. However, the yo-yo moves in precious metals have seen gold (+3.46%) and silver (+5.40%) erase most of yesterday’s losses overnight.

That ISM manufacturing print was critical, because it cemented the prevailing narrative of strong data resilience, which has supported markets despite the array of surprising headlines in recent weeks. Indeed, the headline print was back in expansionary territory at 52.6 in January (vs. 48.5 expected), placing it above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. And the details were also very strong, with the new orders component surging to 57.1, up +9.7pts on the December print, making it the sharpest monthly jump since June 2020 and the Covid recovery. Clearly it’s only one piece of data, but it’s one of the first we have covering 2026, and it confirmed the robust signals from other sources like the PMIs and the weekly jobless claims.

One of the clearest reactions to the ISM was in US Treasury markets, with yields moving higher as investors priced out the chance of Fed rate cuts. For instance, futures had been pricing in an 87% chance of another rate cut by the June FOMC (which would be Warsh’s first as Chair if confirmed), but that was down to 70% by the close. And in turn, the 2yr yield (+4.9bps) rose to 3.57%, whilst the 10yr yield (+4.2bps) rose to 4.28%. That was particularly noticeable among real yields too, as the 2yr real yield rose by +9.1bps. Higher yields supported the dollar index (+0.66%), which has had its best two-day run since last spring.

Yields were little changed after the latest quarterly borrowing estimates from the US Treasury, which came in at $574bn for Q1 and $109bn for Q2. The Q2 figure was a bit higher than expected, but this was mostly due to an increased end-of-June cash balance target of $900bn, which our strategists expect to be met with higher bill issuance.

While yesterday’s US data delivered positive news, we heard that the BLS will not be releasing the January jobs report on Friday as scheduled due to the partial government shutdown that started last Saturday. In the latest on the shutdown, Trump called on House Republicans to immediately pass the funding deal that was approved by the Senate late last week. Trump’s intervention came as House Speaker Johnson has sought to avoid a push for amendments by conservative Republicans, with a House vote on the package expected today.

Although precious metals are rallying back this morning it's worth highlighting Friday and Monday's losses in aggregate. Gold was down a further -4.76% yesterday, which left them down -13.28% in total over the last 2 sessions, making it the biggest 2-day plunge since 2013, and the second biggest since the 1980s. For silver there was an even bigger slide, with prices down -6.96% to $79.27/oz, which brought the 2-day slide to an historic -31.48%. Indeed, that 2-day move for silver is the biggest fall since Bloomberg’s daily data starts back in 1950, so this is genuinely unparalleled in any of our careers unless you're reading this in your 90s. If you are, then a special hello this morning.

Meanwhile for oil, yesterday also brought some big declines as investor concern eased about geopolitical risk. In part, that followed Trump’s weekend comments that was hopeful about some sort of deal with Iran. And then yesterday, Axios reported that the US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff would meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Istanbul on Friday. So that helped to take out some of the geopolitical risk premium, and it marked a sharp turnaround from January when Brent crude saw its biggest monthly jump in 4 years. So by the close, Brent crude fell -4.36% to $66.30/bbl, and WTI was down -4.71% to $62.14/bbl. Moreover, that eased investor concern on the inflation side too, with the US 2yr inflation swap down -4.7bps on the day to 2.55%, its biggest daily drop of 2026 so far.

Against that backdrop, it was a strong day for equities on both sides of the Atlantic. So the S&P 500 (+0.54%) recovered from a run of 3 consecutive declines last week, closing just -0.03% below its record high from last Tuesday. Admittedly, the Mag 7 (-0.10%) continued to struggle, posting a 3rd consecutive decline, but small-caps had a very strong performance, with the Russell 2000 up +1.02%, while consumer staples (+1.58%) and industrials (+1.26%) sectors led the gains for the S&P 500.

Meanwhile, we had news of fresh tariff relief, as Trump posted that the US would cut the main tariff on India from 25% to 18%, while also removing the additional 25% tariff the US imposed on India last August citing its purchases of Russian oil. Trump said India would stop purchases of Russian oil, buy “over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products” and remove tariff and non-tariff barriers against the US, though the official details of the pact are not yet clear.

Earlier in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.15%) both hit record highs, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.05%) closed at its highest level since 2000. That came as the final PMI readings in Europe were revised in a positive direction, with the Euro Area manufacturing PMI up to 49.5 (vs. flash 49.4), alongside upward revisions in Germany, France and the UK. 

Asian equity markets are experiencing a significant rebound this morning, with the KOSPI (+6.13%) seeing a stunning surge in AI-related shares, while the Nikkei (+3.89%) is also witnessing a notable increase, supported by a weaker yen. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.90%) saw its gains trimmed after the RBA raised the key rate to address rising price pressures (details below). In other areas, Chinese stocks are underperforming compared to their regional counterparts, with the Hang Seng flat and the Shanghai Comp +0.64%. As well as S&P futures (+0.25%) being higher as discussed at the top, Nasdaq futures are half a percent higher as I type.

Returning to the RBA, they raised their benchmark cash target rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, up from 3.65%, in a unanimous decision by the rate-setting board. The central bank anticipates further potential hikes to address what it perceives as persistently high inflation. This decision follows a resurgence in Australian inflation observed in late 2025, which has also seen core inflation rise above the RBA’s annual target of 2% to 3%. Furthermore, the RBA’s economic outlook, as outlined in its monetary policy statement, now projects headline inflation to reach 4.2% by mid-year, significantly higher than earlier expectations. Additionally, it anticipates that underlying inflation—a trimmed mean measure closely monitored by the RBA—will accelerate to 3.7% by June, up from the current rate of 3.4%. In the short term, the RBA has revised its forecast for economic growth to 2.1% by June this year, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.9%. Following this decision, the Australian dollar (+0.86%) is gaining strength after two consecutive sessions of declines, trading at 0.7008 against the US dollar, while yields on the policy-sensitive 3-year government bonds have risen by +6.9 basis points to 4.31%, marking the highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, 10-year yields have increased by +3.7 basis points to reach 4.84% as we finalise this report.

Against this background, markets have raised their expectations for a rate increase in May to 79%, with the market anticipating a cumulative tightening of 36 basis points this year.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the January flash CPI print from France, along with the US JOLTS report of job openings for December. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin and Bowman, and also get the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey. Finally, today’s earnings include AMD and Pfizer.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:32

A Month Of Shock And Awe: These Were The Best And Worst Performing Assets In January

Earlier today, Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen released his monthly performance review looking at how markets performed in January. As Jim Reid writes, "January managed to both shock and awe in various ways, yet still delivered broad based gains across all global assets in our monthly performance review when measured in USD terms—a genuinely rare occurrence. It was perhaps fitting then, that the month ended with extraordinary volatility: silver saw its largest daily fall since 1980 (36% at the intraday lows,  26.3% at the close), while Gold recorded its biggest one day decline since 2013 ( 8.95%)."

We'll do a more detailed summary below, but here are the highlights:

• The most striking feature in January was the breadth of the rally. Despite an array of risks around Venezuela, Iran, Greenland and Fed independence, nearly every major asset was still in positive territory.

• Equities did well across the board, as positive data surprises continued to power risk assets. Indeed, the ISM services index hit a 14-month high, whilst the US jobs report showed unemployment ticking lower. In turn, the S&P 500 (+1.4% in total return terms) briefly poked above 7,000 for the first time, whilst the MSCI EM index (+8.9%) had its best monthly performance since November 2022.

• Most notably, it was a historic and extraordinary month for precious metals, even with the late pullback. In fact, gold (+13.3%) saw its best monthly performance since September 1999, and silver (+18.9%) posted a 9th consecutive monthly gain.

• Other commodities did very well, and the geopolitical risk pushed Brent crude oil (+16.2%) to $70.69/bbl, marking its biggest monthly jump in four years.

• Bitcoin was one of the few major assets to end the month lower, down -10.8% to $78,197. That’s a 4th consecutive monthly decline for Bitcoin, which hasn’t happened since before the pandemic.

• The US Dollar also struggled, particularly after Trump was asked about the decline, and he said “No, I think it’s great”. So the US Dollar weakened against every other G10 currency, and the dollar index also saw its worst 4-day slide since the Liberation Day turmoil last April.

• Finally, there were some huge moves in Japan, where a snap election was announced for February 8. JGBs sold off amidst election pledges for more consumption tax cuts, with the 10yr yield up +18bps on the month, and the 30yr yield up another +24bps.

So January was an action-packed month. With all that’s going on, February is unlikely to be quiet.

With summary in mind, here are the details: 

Markets put in a strong performance in January, as positive data surprises continued to power risk assets, with the S&P 500 briefly poking above 7,000 for the first time. But just as we saw in 2025, those headline gains masked significant volatility under the surface, as geopolitical risk rose significantly, including over Venezuela, Iran and Greenland. So that meant Brent crude oil (+16.2%) saw its biggest monthly jump in 4 years, particularly after Trump warned that a “massive Armada” was heading to Iran, which raised speculation about a US strike.

Moreover, precious metals had their biggest surge in decades, with gold prices (+13.3%) seeing their biggest monthly jump since September 1999, despite the sharp pullback at the end of the month. All that came amidst growing pressure on the US Dollar, which saw its biggest 4-day decline since the Liberation Day turmoil last year, weakening against every other G10 currency in January.

Month in Review - The high-level macro overview

Geopolitics dominated the headlines in January, with the year getting off to an eventful start. The first major event was on January 3, as Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured by US forces and taken to New York. There were immediately questions about what the market implications would be, as the US EIA have said that Venezuela has the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, with 17% of the global total. So investors had to assess whether supply disruption in the short term might be outweighed by higher production in the long term. But outside of Venezuelan assets and some US oil companies, the wider market reaction was fairly limited.

However, events in Iran led to a much clearer oil price reaction, with Brent crude ending the month above $70/bbl again. That came as speculation mounted about some kind of US strike on Iran, and Trump himself posted on Jan 13 that he had cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials, whilst calling on protestors to take over the institutions. Then on Jan 14, Reuters reported that some personnel had been advised to leave the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. That was significant because the base previously saw an Iranian missile attack last June, so the story added to fears that some sort of escalation might take place imminently. However, Trump later downplayed the magnitude of tensions, saying “we’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping — it’s stopped… And there’s no plan for executions”. However, while this led to a brief pullback in oil prices, they then resumed their ascent as trump posted on Jan 28 that a “massive Armada is heading to Iran.” So by the end of January, Brent crude was up +16.2% to $70.69/bbl, having seen its biggest monthly jump since January 2022.

The other major geopolitical story surrounded Greenland, which escalated as the month went on. For instance on Jan 14, Trump posted that "The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security.” Then on Jan 17, Trump threatened a 10% tariff on several European countries from Feb 1, which would rise to 25% in June, unless “a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland”. That led to a serious risk-off move, with the S&P 500 down -2.1% on the following session. There was even speculation about more serious European retaliation, with German finance minister Lars Klingbeil said that “We are constantly experiencing new provocations, we are constantly experiencing new antagonism, which President Trump is seeking, and here we Europeans must make it clear that the limit has been reached”. However, on Jan 21, Trump then posted that “we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region.” He also said that the Feb 1 tariffs wouldn’t proceed. So that led to a market recovery, with the S&P 500 hitting another all-time high again on Jan 27, and still ending the month +1.4% higher in total return terms 

Otherwise, the Federal Reserve were in the spotlight in January, particularly after the Department of Justice began a criminal investigation that revived questions around central bank independence. That also added to the upward pressure on precious metals, with gold prices moving higher throughout the month, ultimately closing up +13.3% in its best monthly performance since September 1999. If anything, that underplays the volatility, as gold prices hit an all-time intraday record of $5,595/oz on Jan 29, before pulling back sharply to close the month at $4,894/oz, including its biggest daily decline on Jan 30 (-8.95%) since April 2013. That surge in gold prices also occurred alongside a fresh move lower for the US Dollar, with the dollar index down -1.4% in January, which included the biggest 4-day slide since the Liberation Day turmoil last April. That accelerated after Trump himself was asked about the decline, and he said “No, I think it’s great”. However, the moves stabilised after Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated the “strong dollar policy” the next day in a CNBC appearance. Finally on Jan 30, it was also announced that Kevin Warsh had been nominated by Trump to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Despite the volatility of global events in January, risk assets still put in a strong performance overall. In part, that was thanks to upbeat global data, which was still broadly robust. For instance in the US, the ISM services index hit a 14-month high of 54.4 in December. Then the jobs report showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4% in December. Meanwhile in Europe, inflation was a bit weaker than expected, which meant expectations rose that the ECB might deliver another rate cut this year. And Euro Area growth for Q4 also surprised on the upside, at a +0.3% pace. So most of the major global equity indices still advanced in January.

Finally in Japan, there were further significant market moves. That came as a snap election was announced for February 8, with JGBs selling off amidst election pledges for more consumption tax cuts. That led to a surge in long-end yields, with the 30yr yield closing at 3.86% on Jan 20, its highest since that maturity was first launched, before coming down to end the month at 3.63%. The 10yr yield also reached its highest since 1999, closing at 2.35% on Jan 20 as well, before ending the month at 2.24%. But even with the pullback, the 10yr yield was still up +18bps on the month, and the 30yr yield was up +24bps. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan delivered a somewhat hawkish-leaning decision, as they kept rates on hold, but they also raised their inflation outlook, whilst the outlook report reiterated their desire to keep hiking rates.

Which assets saw the biggest gains in January?

• Precious metals: It was a historic month for precious metals, with gold (+13.3%) rising to $4,894/oz, in its strongest monthly performance since September 1999. Meanwhile, silver (+18.9%) rose to $85.20/oz.
• Oil and gas: Geopolitical risks meant Brent crude oil moved up +16.2% in January, rising to $70.69/bbl. That reversed a run of 5 consecutive monthly declines, and was the biggest monthly jump since January 2022. Natural gas also rose, with US natural gas futures up +18.2%, whilst European natural gas futures were up +39.5%, their biggest monthly jump since June 2022.
• Equities: It was another strong month for global equities, with the S&P 500 (+1.4%), the STOXX 600 (+3.2%), the Nikkei (+5.9%) and the MSCI EM index (+8.9%) all rising in total return terms. For the MSCI EM index, it was the best monthly performance since November 2022.
• Euro sovereigns: With inflation surprising on the downside and markets pricing a growing likelihood of an ECB rate cut this year, Euro sovereigns were up +0.7% in total return terms.

Which assets saw the biggest losses in January?

• US Dollar: The dollar index fell -1.4% in January, with the dollar itself weakening against every other G10 currency. At one point in January, the Euro moved above $1.20 for the first time since 2021, before ultimately closing at $1.185.

And visually (note bitcoin is not among the assets tracked by DB or it would have been ugly);

More in the full note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:20

Musk's X Office In Paris Raided By Cybercrime Unit As Brussels Becomes More Unhinged

One week after the European Commission opened a new formal investigation into Elon Musk's X under the Digital Services Act (DSA) and expanded a separate probe launched in December 2023, X's Paris office was raided by France's cybercrime unit as part of an investigation into the distribution of sexual deepfakes and Holocaust denial content.

"A search is being carried out at the French premises of X by the cybercrime unit of the Paris public prosecutor's office, together with @CyberGEND and @Europol , as part of the investigation opened in January 2025," the Paris prosecutors' office wrote on X early Tuesday.

The Paris public prosecutor's office also said it is leaving the X platform and will post exclusively on Reid Hoffman's LinkedIn and Meta-owned Instagram.

In a statement, the public prosecutor's office said that both Elon Musk and Linda Yaccarino (former X CEO) had been summoned for voluntary questioning "in their capacity as de facto and de jure managers of the X platform at the time of the events."

The prosecutor's office set the date for April 20, a day frequently associated with Musk, suggesting the activists chose it as a pointed jab.

Back to the X message: "Find us on Lkd and Insta." What a ridiculous statement from the prosecutor's office. It only reinforces the idea that this is pure political theater, emblematic of Europe's left-wing, unhinged censorship regime targeting a U.S. billionaire who has done more to uphold free speech than anyone else in the West.

X previously described the probe's widening last year as "politically-motivated"... The prosecutor's office said it was examining "alleged complicity" in offences related to the platform, including the spreading of child abuse images and sexually explicit deepfakes via the AI chatbot on X called "Grok."

Yet, no investigation into other chatbots? 

Musk has been outraged by the Brussels bureaucrats ...

The tyrannical, unelected bureaucracy oppressing the people of Europe are in the second picture https://t.co/j6CFFbajJa

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 7, 2025

It only appears that the censorship cartel in the EU has borrowed ideas from 20th-century Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler...

Pretty much https://t.co/0hspV4roFj

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 7, 2025

Within the Trump administration, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials have criticized EU internet policies.

"The EU should be supporting free speech, not attacking American companies over garbage," Vice President JD Vance recently said.

Rubio has warned the left-wing Brussels bureaucrats that "days of censoring Americans online are over."

With President Trump and Musk now buddies again, we suspect the president will fire off a Truth Social post about Brussels bureaucrats, and Musk will be commenting on X.

It's clear what the Europeans are trying to do...

What's happening in Europe is regulatory overreach that targets American free-speech innovation, and in the world of the Trump era, Brussels and its censorship cartel must be defeated.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 08:05

Nintendo Profit Misses As Soaring Memory Prices Could Become Major Headache

Dark storm clouds have gathered over Nintendo since the start of December, as investor concerns mount over tariffs, rising memory prices, and chatter about soft US holiday sales. The stock in Tokyo remains about one-third below its August peak.

Earnings on Tuesday reconfirmed the gloom after Nintendo reported third-quarter operating income that missed the average Wall Street estimate tracked by Bloomberg.

Switch 2 sold 7.01 million units in the December quarter, beating Bloomberg Consensus estimates, but the operating income of 155.21 billion yen, versus the 180.7 billion expected, raised investor concern.

Trade tariffs, combined with rising component costs, especially the explosion in the price of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), are pressuring thin hardware margins for the electronics company.

Goldman analyst Maho Kamiya warned clients in late Decemeber that concerns about rising memory prices and the absence of top-down tailwinds have sent Nintendo shares spiraling. The stock has yet to recover since the warning...

We have outlined a growing list of electronics companies pressured by soaring memory prices, even prompting industry insiders to tell consumers that front-running purchases of PCs, TVs, and other devices that use HBM should be "done now" because the memory shortage, caused by data center buildouts, will only get worse from here.

Snapshot of the third quarter (courtsey of Bloomberg):

• Operating income 155.21 billion yen, +23% y/y, estimate 180.7 billion yen (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Net income 159.93 billion yen, +24% y/y, estimate 147.5 billion yen

• Net sales 806.32 billion yen, +86% y/y, estimate 815.7 billion yen

"Switch 2 sales figures can be seen as okay, but it would be hard to call them solid," Toyo Securities analyst Hideki Yasuda wrote in a note.

Yasuda said, "Looking ahead, concerns such as rising component prices remain, and how the company will once again control costs will be the key point to watch."

According to research firm TrendForce, HBM shortages are fueling major risks for Nintendo as chipmakers prioritize AI data-center memory, potentially limiting console production.

Hence, our most recent note:

• "Do It Now": Industry Insiders Urge Consumers To Front-Run PC, TV, Smartphone Purchases As 'Memory Crunch' Will Intensify

Nintendo maintained full-year guidance:

• Sees FX assumption 150 yen/USD, saw 140

• Sees FX assumption 170 yen/EUR, saw 160

• Still sees operating income 370.00 billion yen, estimate 419.16 billion yen

• Still sees net income 350.00 billion yen, estimate 412.42 billion yen

• Still sees net sales 2.25 trillion yen, estimate 2.37 trillion yen

• Sees Switch 2 hardware sales 19.00 million units

• Sees Switch 2 software sales 48.00 million units

• Still sees original Switch hardware sales 4.00 million units

• Still sees original Switch software sales 125.00 million units

• Still sees dividend 181.00 yen, estimate 204.14 yen

While it may be a golden time for memory makers as prices skyrocket, it is only a matter of time before consumer electronics see price surges and even the risk of limited production. Welcome to the era of AI data centers: the HBM shortage is expected to persist into 2027.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 07:45

Chinese Oil Firms Turn To Iran To Replace Venezuelan Crude

Via The Cradle

China's teapot refiners are buying discounted Iranian crude to replace the loss of supplies from Venezuela following Washington's violent takeover of the South American nation's oil, Reuters reported Monday.

"The drawdown of Iranian oil held in storage is making up for the drop in Venezuelan supply to the world's largest crude importer," the news agency wrote, citing two people with knowledge of the matter.

via Reuters

Venezuelan oil shipments to China have fallen drastically since US President Donald Trump imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers attempting to leave the country in December.

On January 3rd, US forces bombed the Venezuelan capital, abducted Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, and took control of the country's oil. Washington announced it was placing Venezuela's oil revenues in accounts in Qatar under White House control.

Trump has allowed global trading firms Vitol and Trafigura to sell up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil. However, Beijing-owned firm PetroChina has halted its oil purchases from Caracas amid the uncertainty.

Beijing's independent refiners have responded by stepping up purchases of Iranian heavy crude stored in bonded storage tanks in China and on ships at steep discounts, the sources told Reuters.

Additional Chinese purchases of Iranian Heavy and Pars crude grades are expected in February and March, one of the two sources added. The refiners can purchase Iranian Heavy crude at discounts of about $12 per barrel, as Iran is faced with few willing buyers due to US sanctions.

Russian Urals trade at a discount of $11 to $12 per barrel, also due to US sanctions. With Washington's permission, Vitol is offering Chinese buyers discounts of roughly $5 per barrel for Venezuelan crude.

China's imports of Venezuelan crude averaged 394,000 barrels per day (bpd), around four percent of Beijing's total seaborne crude imports, before the US takeover.

Years ago China imported almost no oil from Venezuela due to a lack of heavy crude refining facilities. Since the establishment of a strategic partnership between the two nations, China invested tens of billions to strengthen cooperation. Specifically, in 2023, the… pic.twitter.com/O8s7p2rxrq

— Bin Xie (@bxieus) January 7, 2026

On Saturday, Trump said India will begin buying Venezuelan oil, helping to replace the loss of Russian supplies amid US tariff threats. “We've already made that deal, the concept of the deal,” Trump told reporters while traveling aboard Air Force One.

Last year, after Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil, New Delhi stopped buying oil from Caracas. India and China have been forced to shift their purchases of oil in recent years due to aggressive sanctions on Russia, Venezuela, and Iran.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 07:20

Europe's Russian Gas Ban Is Set To Trigger New Wave Of LNG Tanker Demand

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

The European Union’s plan to ban LNG imports from Russia will prompt a surge in demand for LNG carriers to the tune of 30 new vessels, a senior Vortexa analyst said ahead of the LNG Qatar gathering that starts today.

According to Ashley Sherman, senior LNG analyst at the company, if the EU sanctions leave currently unsanctioned Yamal LNG free to deliver liquefied gas to European buyers, at least 30 new low ice-class or non-ice-class LNG carriers to satisfy demand for the fuel from the second-largest importing region after Asia.

In December last year, the European Union agreed a legally binding, gradual reduction in both LNG and pipeline gas imports from Russia, eventually resulting in a full ban on these exports, with the deadlines set for the end of 2026 for LNG and the autumn of 2027 for pipeline gas.

Last month, the European Council gave the final approval to the ban.

It also gave EU members until March to “prepare national plans to diversify gas supplies and identify potential challenges in replacing Russian gas.”

Hungary and Slovakia have protested the move on the grounds it would raise their energy costs to unacceptable levels.

The Yamal LNG facility, operated by Novatek, has been excluded from direct sanctions so far due to the Europea Union’s strong demand for gas, but the EU has sanctioned vessels loading from the Western Siberian LNG plant.

Novatek’s second LNG plant, however, Arctic LNG 2, along with Gazprom’s Portovaya LNG plant, are under Western sanctions.

They still export liquefied gas to China, despite the sanctions on both production facilities and LNG carriers servicing them.

Meanwhile, the EU imported record volumes of LNG last month amid harsh winter weather, with the total calculated at 12.7 billion cu m, Russia’s TASS news agency reported, citing figures from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 06:30

Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0? ...May Involve Russian Drones With Crosshairs On US Homeland

A Russian military-focused Telegram channel, Rybar, published an assessment that warned President Donald Trump's gunboat diplomacy and the re-posturing of the U.S. Department of War toward the Western Hemisphere could generate drone threat risks to the US Homeland

"Given how the Americans are acting now, the main question is not whether the United States will strike Cuba, but when and how it will do so. Cuba, along with Venezuela and Nicaragua, has long stood as an anti-American stronghold in the Caribbean region, and after the takeover of Maduro, U.S. interest has increased," Rybar wrote on its Telegram channel.

Rybar then laid out a scenario that, to us, suggests a Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 in the making, in which it asked: "But what would the Cubans do in the event of a conflict? Let us hypothetically imagine that Havana decides to resist the Americans and chooses to fight. In that case, the already world-famous Geran strike drones could come to their aid."

Russia may deploy Geranium strike drones in Cuba, a move that could reshape deterrence and force Trump to reconsider his options. pic.twitter.com/ujYKnqzcAf

— Rybar in English (@rybar_en) January 30, 2026

To bring readers up to speed, Russian-made Geranium drones are a family of long-range loitering munitions, most commonly referring to the Geran-2, which is a version of Iran's Shahed-136. We have detailed how Russia has established domestic manufacturing plants to ramp up production, as well as the next iteration of these drones (read here).

The Geran-2 has a range of roughly 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers, carries a 30- to 50-kg high-explosive warhead, and is cheaper to produce than cruise missiles. One distinctive signature Ukrainians have learned to recognize is its sound: the drones are often described as lawn mowers in the sky.

Rybar noted the potential strike radius of the Geran-2 if such systems were positioned in Cuba, concluding that under this scenario that major oil and gas refineries, key military bases, data centers, and even Washington, DC would fall within the drone's strike envelope, representing a highly destabilizing escalation risk.

Rybar's Geran-2 threat map will likely cause major concern at State Department and DoW ...

We warned in recent days that trillions in dollars in CapEx will be spent on data centers worldwide, as per Morgan Stanley analyst Vishwanath Tirupattur's forecast, but Wall Street analysts largely end their analysis at the financing and construction of next-generation data centers, with limited discussion about modern security architecture required once these facilities are built and become instant high-value targets for non-state actors or foreign adversaries (read here). 

"Future wars will be wars of attrition, where autonomous systems fight one another, overwhelming technologically superior but low-inventory expensive systems. Protecting cities will require mass-produced, cost-comparable, networked solutions," Cameron Rowe of counter-UAS interceptor startup Sentradel told us.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 05:45

Governments Can Fix Money Fast. Here Is Why They Will Not Do It...

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The markets have been rocked by news of a possible intervention to control the Japanese yen slump, after it reached a forty-year low relative to the US dollar. Fixing the yen and any other fiat currency is simple: Implement an Austrian approach; eliminate constant deficit spending and monetization of government outlays; and implement clear, sound money policies that support the purchasing power of the currency.

Letting rates float and having zero deficit would help.

However, no government seems to want to control spending and eliminate constant artificial currency creation, even knowing that, by doing so, they would limit the risk of financial crises, excessive risk-taking, and erosion of citizens’ wage purchasing power.

The best a citizen can expect today is a mild form of Keynesianism that aims for lower taxes, relatively lower spending, and a constant expansion of money supply as the driver of economic growth. Even this “lesser evil” approach ends with malinvestment, financial crises, and more politicians demanding “public investment” as the solution.

Governments avoid sound money and controlling spending because these choices can hurt them politically right away, while using inflation and interventionist methods allows them to take a lot of wealth from citizens and give it to themselves and their favored industries.

Governments refer to the constant issuance of new currency that exceeds private sector demand as the “social use of money.” Inflationism is a tool to create dependency and limit individuals’ financial freedom.

Inflation is not an accident; it is a policy. The erosion of the purchasing power of the currency makes governments more powerful; they present themselves as the solution to the problems their policies create, and citizens have fewer tools to gain financial independence.

Governments and their “experts” constantly try to blame inflation on anything except what really creates it: monetary excess preceded by fiscal irresponsibility and uncontrolled deficit spending. Politicians point to “greedy companies,” “supply shocks,” or “external factors,” even to wage growth, as causes of inflation to hide the simple fact that issuing more currency than the private sector demands inevitably destroys its purchasing power.

Inflation is a de facto slow default and signals a constant loss of fiscal credibility for governments. High taxes and inflation become two sides of the same policy: controlling citizens and making them servants to an ever-rising bureaucratic power that rewards a few private enablers in the process.

This erosion is not neutral. It is a permanent, silent tax on real wages and savings that benefits the state, the most indebted agent in the economy, which can spend more than it receives. When governments double down on spending and central banks accommodate with quantitative easing and artificially low rates, there is a simple calculated transfer of wealth from the middle class to the public sector.

Central banks have become tools to maintain the government debt bubble rather than defenders of price stability, especially when they view such stability in an annual inflation increase based on a carefully selected basket that masks the true extent of currency debasement. The Fed’s panic in 2020-2024 is a clear signal of a monetary authority subordinating its mandate to the needs of the Treasury.

The ECB has followed a similar path, maintaining its anti-fragmentation tools, rolling over massive holdings of sovereign bonds and giving permanent support for highly indebted states such as France and Spain. Central banks will not oppose the government; instead, they will transfer the burden to consumers.

Governments never end inflation because they benefit from it.

High nominal growth, fueled by money printing and deficit spending, inflates tax revenues and masks the deterioration of real wages, while the real value of outstanding public debt is gradually dissolved.

Sound money, balanced budgets, and structural reforms require the elimination of clientelist spending, politically protected programs, and subsidy‑dependent sectors.

Sound money benefits the private sector and citizens. Inflationism makes the state larger and more powerful at the expense of families and businesses. Politicians consistently pledge “free” benefits, which ultimately result in increased inflation, reduced growth, and diminished productivity.

This is why, even as headline inflation moderates, citizens feel poorer and angrier. Governments created the inflation shock with massive stimulus at the peak of the cycle, then forced central banks to tighten late and aggressively, placing the full burden of adjustment on families, small businesses, and productive investment while public sectors remained largely untouched. The result is stagnation with high taxation and persistent inflation expectations—a slow‑motion confiscation of the middle class.

Refusing to adopt sound money is not an intellectual mistake but a political choice. Governments and central banks have built a framework that systematically sacrifices citizens’ real wages, savings, and freedom to preserve an ever‑larger, ever‑more‑indebted state. You pay.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/03/2026 - 05:00

It's Time To Accept That Civil War 2.0 Has Already Started

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

In July of 1917 as the fires of WWI raged across Europe, the Russian city of Petrograd was facing its own special turmoil in the form of a large scale Bolshevik insurgency. Up to 500,000 protesters, agitators and provocateurs had entered the city from across the country, many of them armed. They took over large swaths of the metropolis, hijacked private vehicles and confiscated private buildings.

Some soviet leaders including Vladimir Lenin called the event “premature” and did not publicly endorse it, which may have been a calculated attempt to avoid direct blowback. The official historical explanation is that the insurrection had taken on a life of its own, but the stage had been set and the communist agitators got exactly what they wanted, what their strategy demanded:

Human sacrifice.

Clashes with government authorities led to hundreds of protester deaths and a handful of police casualties. The Russian government surged military forces into the region to arrest Bolshevik captains and the movement had to pull back. In the end, though, the primary goal of the insurgents had been achieved. Whether spontaneous or planned, the point of the communist methodology is always to trigger government violence which can then be used to create public sympathy and bolster the revolution.

The majority of “normies” don’t need to join the revolution, they just have to be convinced to stay out of the way. And that’s largely what happened a few months later in October of 1917 when the Red Terror began. What followed was five years of civil war.

The communists, who had long claimed to be innocent victims of the Tsarist “imperialism”, went on a murder spree as soon as they solidified their political power. Their ideological opponents were systematically rounded up and eliminated. There are no exact numbers on how many killings occurred because records were destroyed, but estimates suggest the revolutionaries and secret police arrested and executed around 1 million political dissidents in the first few years of communist rule.

This genocide, though, would pale in comparison to the 10 million deaths caused by the Russian Civil War. Not to mention the imprisonment and mass murder of millions of Christians by the atheist regime over the course of the next couple decades.

History rarely “repeats” but our modern political dynamic rings rather familiar. Many of the tactics used by the leftists in Russia in the early 20th Century are being used today in the US. In fact, I would argue they are almost exactly the same and that a Bolshevik-style revolution is happening right now.

Interestingly, the Bolsheviks were a tiny minority within the Russian population. At their peak in 1917 they had only 400,000 "official" members. They were supported politically by an estimated 23% of the population, but that is still a small movement compared to the 150 million Russian citizens trying to live their lives from day to day.

Had Russian conservatives (nationalists, Christians and defenders of private property rights) stood up and acted en masse to stop the Bolsheviks early in 1917, their society could have avoided the full scale murder that would befall them from 1918 onward. They might not have aligned perfectly with their existing government, but the communist alternative was so much worse.

Instead, the conservatives waited until agents of the Cheka were at their doorstep, and by that time it was too late to effectively fight back. As Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn depressingly noted in his book “The Gulag Archipelago”, the majority of Russians stood against Soviet rule but they did not have the courage to take up arms when it mattered most. And so, a minority of militant communists were able to dominate a nation of hundreds of millions. As Solzhenitsyn warned:

“We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”

The communists, of course, did not achieve such success alone. As scholar Antony Sutton outlined with ample evidence in his book “Wall Street And The Bolshevik Revolution”, they enjoyed the financial and logistical backing of various global elites (from the Rockefellers to the Morgans to the Harrimans) through the course of the revolution and after their rise to power.

The purpose? To create the model for an atheist and relativistic authoritarian state. A system that the globalists intend to one day use to take over the entire world.

Their plan relies heavily on a lack of action by patriots. It could be a weakness, but the leftists have good reason to feel emboldened lately.

Civil War 2.0 has, in fact, already kicked off in the form of a well funded far-left insurrection much like what happened in 1917 Russia.

The lack of conservative organization in response has been less than impressive, and I’m here to give a warning: We are approaching the point of no return.

Activists are funded by a massive shell game of NGOs hidden behind other NGOs. They are coordinated by hidden online discord servers. They receive their orders and share information in the field through encrypted Signal chats. They are trained in agitation and disruption by anonymous online meet-ups run by covert activist coordinators.  They have engaged in violent attacks on ICE agents on hundreds if not thousands of occasions and few of them are ever prosecuted. This is not the behavior of a grassroots protest movement, this is the behavior of an army of covert operatives with special protections.

It’s important to understand that the “protests” are actually a highly coordinated guerrilla campaign – These are not sincere citizens exercising their civil rights.  For now their stated motivation is to stop deportations of illegal migrants, but this is just an excuse for their insurgency.  If ICE stopped operations tomorrow, the paid activists would simply fabricate another rationale for tearing the country apart.  Placating them will accomplish nothing.

They are hostile combatants trying to assert dominance and grow their numbers through posturing. Their goal is the destruction of the western world. This cannot be allowed.

The clear solution would be for the government to shut down hostile NGOs, however, these institutions are protected by corporate personhood and have the same constitutional rights as individual citizens. The process of investigating them and prosecuting them takes time – time we don’t have.

Even if Trump utilized the Insurrection Act and deployed the military, there are not enough troops to lock down more than a handful of US cities. Those people hoping that martial law will resolve the issue are kidding themselves. By extension, leftists stand to gain greater support: Martial law would represent proof to the rest of the world that the administration is indeed “fascist.”

The course of the war will not depend on government intervention, so don’t hold your breath waiting for effective enforcement. The reality is, most activist arrests end with them right back out on the street anyway. Their support apparatus has to be permanently removed, or THEY have to be permanently removed from the equation.

Everything will be decided by regular conservatives. If they organize in large numbers, if they create a funding apparatus to move people and supplies around the country quickly, and if they form proper leadership and training guidelines, then there might be a chance for peace simply by presenting a formidable deterrent. If not, at least the means to put down the insurgency will be available.

If conservatives stay at home and refuse to protect any piece of territory beyond their front gate, they will lose everything. It’s inevitable. The side that wants to win will always have an edge over the side that “just wants to be left alone.”

Protests will continue to spread to other cities using the same model we have seen recently in Minneapolis. NGOs will try to provoke more activist deaths at the hands of federal agents. The more the activists go unchecked by the general public the more emboldened they will become and the more their numbers will grow in the assumption that they are the majority.

In the event that the protests are stalled but the organizations are not crushed, activists will revert to assassinations and Weather Underground-style terror attacks until they demoralize the populace and gather strength again. The bottom line? If the political left is not made to truly FEAR consequences, they will not stop until they get their own Red Terror purge.

The end result is not going to be “balkanization.” That idea might have worked during the pandemic, but at this stage it’s far too late for a national divorce. The leftists will never allow conservatives to live in peace in red states. Letting blue cities rule over entire states of mostly red counties would only legitimize progressive extremists and hurt the conservative cause. This fight is for the entire country, not pieces of it.

It’s also not going to be a war of “factions”. This is prepper SHTF theory nonsense. The lines could not be more defined. The “false left/right paradigm” is a dead remnant of the Ron Paul era. It no longer exists, at least not where the bottom of the pyramid is concerned. The vast majority of progressives and Democrats are onboard with woke extremism. They’re onboard with the purge. They are loyal soldiers of globalism. Unity with them means enslavement.

Leftists, globalists and their allies are not going to discern between MAGA, libertarians and centrists. They will ultimately treat everyone as an enemy worthy of elimination.

They’re also not going to divide and in-fight the way some conservatives predict, at least not until they’ve gotten rid of us first.

In the end, the fate of the US and western civilization stands on the precarious shoulders of a conservative movement that has the means to fight, but not necessarily the will. They are forever waiting for the perfect Hollywood scenario in which they can defend themselves in good conscience in a fair fight where they are the clear and undeniable “good guy.” They are forever waiting for the perfect moment to rise up – A moment that will never come.

Patriots have also planned and trained for decades under the pretenses that conservatives would be the insurgents, not the counter-insurgency. Counter-insurgency is much more difficult and requires far more resources. But guess what? You don’t always get to choose the wars you fight. Sometimes the war chooses you and you have to adapt.

There are certainly individuals who will do what they can. I will be among them as will many of the people I know.

But the great question, the great unknown, the unpredictable factor is whether or not average Americans will step off their porches in large numbers and send a clear message that they will no longer tolerate the chaos.

*  *  *

If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 23:25

Watch: Russian Soldiers Surrender To Gun-Wielding Robot; Humanoid Warfare Nears

Video footage circulating on X from the Ukrainian front shows a Droid TW-7.62 ground robotic system, roughly half the size of a Mini Cooper, forcing the surrender of three Russian troops during an active military operation. The incident suggests that war robots are rapidly maturing, moving beyond support and logistics into offensive roles.

Futurism reports that Ukrainian defense robotics firm DevDroid's armed unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) forced the surrender of three Russian soldiers.

"The footage shows three Russian soldiers approaching one by one, removing their equipment, and lying down next to the UGV," the tech outlet wrote in a note, adding the UGV has a ballistic computer and artificial intelligence for autonomous detection, capture, and tracking of targets.

What is clear is that wheeled combat robots on the modern battlefield in Ukraine, used for offensive operations, could soon transition into humanoid robotic platforms.

California-based robotics startup Foundation is developing the Phantom humanoid robot for both commercial and military use.

The firm has stated ambitions to build tens of thousands of these humanoids, capable of carrying payloads and various weapon platforms, for use in dangerous missions, such as breaching buildings, and has secured defense contracts and interest from U.S. military programs.

Unlike other robotics companies such as Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, ANYbotics, Clearpath Robotics, Open Robotics, Unitree, and Figure AI, all of which have stated that their humanoids will not be used in military or defense applications, Foundation has stated otherwise.

Foundation's Phantom MK1 has been trained on the 9mm pistol.

CEO Sankaet Pathak confirmed Phantom MK1 has had weapons training in a recent conversation with tech blog Humanoids Daily.

According to Forbes, Foundation deployed 40 robots in 2025, with manufacturing expanding this year to 10,000, then to 50,000 by late 2027.

Given that Foundation is one of the very few, if not only, robotics firms in the US with a DoD contract specifically for an offensive humanoid combat robot, it wouldn't be a surprise if these bots were found on the Ukrainian battlefield for testing later this year.

Great time for a Polymarket bet on when Skynet arrives ... 

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 23:00

America At 250: The Words That Helped Ignite A Revolution

Authored by Gene Pisasale, via RealClearWire,

“... a thirst for absolute power is the natural disease of monarchy .... To the evil of monarchy we have added hereditary succession ... the first is a degradation and lessening of ourselves ... the second, claimed as a matter of right, is an insult and an imposition on posterity.”

- Thomas Paine, “Common Sense”

On Jan. 10, 1776, Robert Bell did something that could have landed him in prison for treason against King George III of England.

In his small shop on Third Street in downtown Philadelphia, Bell printed an incendiary 47-page pamphlet, published anonymously, calling for rebellion against the Crown and independence from Great Britain.

Its author was a little-known Englishman who had befriended Benjamin Franklin in London two years earlier.

Franklin was impressed with the man and recommended that he emigrate to the colonies, which he did that same year.

Arriving in America just five months before shots were fired at Lexington and Concord, Thomas Paine had a front row seat as the American Revolutionary War was unfolding.

Despite “the shot heard ’round the world” on April 19, 1775, calls for independence were relatively muted throughout the colonies, historians estimating that only about 25 percent of citizens supported the move.

That changed after “Common Sense” hit the streets, being widely read and discussed openly in taverns and coffeehouses throughout the land.

Within approximately one year, an estimated 100,000 copies were sold—a remarkable feat considering the population of America was only about 2.5 million.

After its widespread distribution, Paine’s words proved highly persuasive to tens of thousands across the colonies, nudging support for independence to well over 50 percent. Paine followed it up with an even more persuasive clarion call—“The American Crisis”—in December 1776, its words so grippingly effective that General George Washington had it read out loud to his troops in an attempt to keep his Army together:

“THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.”

An Incredibly Risky Wager

As America had a miniscule Army and ineffective Navy in 1776—versus Great Britain with the most powerful Army in the western hemisphere and a colossally-equipped Navy, only the most aggressive wagerer would have made the bet that the colonies could prevail.

After the move for independence was put into writing on July 4, 1776, the die was cast.

The members of the Second Continental Congress understood that what they were hoping to achieve would be a “long shot” by any reasonable standard.

Early Losses, but Some Victories

King George III and his senior military officers had a lot to be optimistic about early on. The city of Boston was surrounded, then Crown forces took control of another major port—New York—and Washington’s troops were not only on the run—they were ragged, nearly starving, and dangerously low on supplies.

Retreating across the Delaware River to Pennsylvania, Washington knew he had to be bold to survive. With the help of financier Robert Morris and others, Washington received enough cash and materials to forge not only one, but two attacks that would change the way people viewed the war.

The Battle of Trenton on Dec. 26, 1776 and the Battle of Princeton on Jan. 3, 1777 were brilliantly conceived and stunningly successful victories at a time when the Commander knew his Army was near collapse. Being a deeply religious man who often visited local churches during the war, Washington was convinced that a “higher power” had kept his dream—what he called “the Cause”—alive.

A Leap in the Dark

Historian John Ferling captured the essence of this tumultuous era effectively in “A Leap in the Dark: The Struggle to Create the American Republic.” In the book, Ferling describes the “behind the scenes” workings of all the major players, noting their strengths, their weaknesses, and their own doubts about whether they could possibly succeed.

That Washington’s Army was desperate for a victory to end the conflict is an understatement.

Most days they were just hoping to find food and stay on their feet. Though the Continental Army had eked out a few wins, the odds still favored the British. The war would drag on until British General Cornwallis found himself in deep trouble in Virginia, getting surrounded by Washington’s as well as France’s troops and warships leading up to the climactic Battle of Yorktown in October 1781.

A World-Changing Event

Though it may be apocryphal, when Cornwallis surrendered, it has been reported that the British troops were so stunned, they played the English ballad “The World Turned Upside Down” as they relinquished the battlefield to Washington—who literally “by the grace of God” had managed to survive.

The soldiers who had stood by Washington from the beginning, through the defeats in New York and Philadelphia, the horrendous freezing Winters at Valley Forge and Morristown, surely felt in their veins what those assembled in downtown Philadelphia had written on July 4th: “... with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.”

Considering the overwhelming odds against us, it is not a stretch to say that the words to the tune written decades later were true: “America! America! God shed His grace on thee ...”

Looking back 250 years, it becomes clear that the sacred fire of liberty which burned in those hearty souls was not only a flame that couldn’t be extinguished—it was an idea which was destined to change the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 22:35

Revolving Green Door: Former Biden Officials Landed Jobs With Environmental NGOs After Funneling Money To Them

As the Trump administration's Department of Energy moves to wipe out over $83 billion in "Green New Scam" loans and conditional commitments approved in the final months of the Biden administration, a new analysis reveals that not only did the rush to spend accelerate right after Biden's disastrous June 27, 2024 debate with now-President Donald Trump, senior Biden officials landed roles at organizations that received agency funding. In some cases, money was steered to NGOs that the officials worked for before joining the government - where they then returned following the cash bonanza. 

Following the debate where Biden revealed how cooked he is, nonprofit watchdog Democracy Restored found that billions of dollars began rushing out the door to over a dozen environmental and climate-focused NGOs, including that Alliance for Sustainable Energy, Climate United Fund, the Ocean Conservancy, the Nature Conservancy, and Rocky Mountain Institute, according to Just the News. 

Using data from USASpending.gov, Democracy Resorted found that federal agencies had obligated more than $600 million in taxpayer money to these organizations since July 1, 2024. The obligations began to drop the day after the election. Obligations to these same organizations since Nov. 5, 2024 fell to $246 million. 

While various agencies were providing millions in support to these organizations, high-level officials within the agencies either went to work for them after Trump took office, or they had previously worked for them prior to assuming key roles at the agencies under Biden. -JTN

Using data from USASpending.gov, Democracy Restored found that federal agencies obligated more than $600 million to environmental and climate-focused nonprofits beginning July 1, 2024 — including the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, Climate United Fund, Ocean Conservancy, Nature Conservancy, and Rocky Mountain Institute.

That flow of taxpayer cash slowed dramatically after the election. Since Nov. 5, 2024, obligations to the same organizations dropped to $246 million, according to the watchdog group.

At the same time, Democracy Restored identified a pattern that raised eyebrows: senior federal officials moving into roles at organizations that received agency funding — or having previously worked for them before holding key government posts.

I think the money being shoveled out after President Biden’s debate and the apparent revolving door of appointees going to recipients of these federal funds raises many questions about the timing of the money, the impact of special interests in the Biden administration and the general ethics surrounding this behavior," said Houston Keene, director of Democracy Restored, in comments to Just the News.

Loan office under fire

Scrutiny has focused on the Department of Energy’s Loans Programs Office, now renamed the Office of Energy Dominancy Financing.

In August 2024, the DOE awarded the World Resources Institute a $1 million grant aimed at supporting school bus fleet electrification training and collaboration.

Two former senior DOE officials are now senior fellows at the institute: Jigar Shah, who served as director of the Loans Programs Office, and Jennifer Wilcox, who was principal deputy assistant secretary at the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management.

Jigar Shah attends the 2024 TIME100 Gala (Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images for TIME)

Shah’s tenure has drawn particular attention. The Washington Free Beacon reported in May that the Loans Programs Office approved a loan to Plug Power, a New York-based green hydrogen company, in May 2024.

According to the repoprt Shah’s private equity firm previously invested $100 million in Plug Power, and the company once described the firm as a “longstanding partner.” Shah told the Beacon that he did not work directly on Plug Power’s loan and said the company applied before he joined the office.

An Office of Inspector General audit released in December found that 20% of Loans Programs Office employees reviewed had a potential conflict of interest - or the appearance of impaired impartiality - while performing their duties.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright testified in May that the office issued roughly $40 billion in loans over the prior 15 years, but that figure ballooned to $100 billion in just the final 76 days of the Biden administration. Wright said those rushed loan agreements lacked safeguards traditionally required by the DOE.

The revolving door keeps spinning

Democracy Restored’s review identified other examples of officials cycling between government agencies and nonprofit recipients.

Renee Stone, formerly in senior leadership roles at NOAA, now serves as vice president of climate for the Audubon Society. During the Biden administration, Audubon received nearly $4 million across three grants for habitat restoration projects.

Monica Medina, another former NOAA official, is now a distinguished fellow at Conservation International, which received a $9 million grant in 2023 for an ecosystem restoration project in Hawaii.

Chetan Hebbale, once a policy adviser in the White House, later joined the Nature Conservancy as a climate and conservation finance policy adviser. The organization received more than $6 million in federal funding during Biden’s term.

Federal ethics law restricts certain post-government actions by former senior officials, but it does not prohibit them from accepting employment with private or nonprofit organizations — even those that received government funding.

Keene emphasized that there is no evidence any of these individuals directly worked on the grants in question, but said the relationships warrant closer examination.

Offshore wind ties raise questions

The Biden administration’s aggressive push for 30 gigawatts of offshore wind also drew scrutiny.

Oceans Conservancy, a vocal supporter of offshore wind expansion, received nearly $6 million in two grants from NOAA during the Biden years. The group has also received support from Orsted, a major offshore wind developer.

Susan Ruffo, who previously served as managing director of international initiatives at Oceans Conservancy, later worked for NOAA and other federal agencies.

“I think it says a lot about the stewardship of tax dollars under the Biden administration,” Keene said. “If you were an organization that agreed with the administration politically, they weren’t afraid to cut you a check. That’s a problem for the taxpayer.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 22:10

Clintons Bend The Knee To Comer, Agree To Testify In House Epstein Inquiry

Just hours after Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) rebuffed Bill and Hillary Clinton's attorney's last-ditch conditional offer, the former president and former secretary of state appear to have acquiesced and agreed to key demands from the Republican-led House Oversight Committee to testify about Jeffrey Epstein in a closed-door deposition.

The initial correspondence, obtained by CNN, revealed that the Clintons’ team has been in search of an off-ramp for days.

Attorneys for Bill and Hillary have been in discussion with the Republican-led committee multiple times since lawmakers from both parties voted in January to hold the Clintons in contempt for refusing to appear for in-person depositions as part of the panel’s investigation into Epstein.

“It has been nearly six months since your clients first received the Committee’s subpoena, more than three months since the original date of their depositions, and nearly three weeks since they failed to appear for their depositions commensurate with the Committee’s lawful subpoenas,” Comer wrote.

“Your clients’ desire for special treatment is both frustrating and an affront to the American people’s desire for transparency.”

As CNN reports, according to the letter dated January 31, the Clintons’ lawyers laid out the terms under which the former president would sit for a voluntary, transcribed interview.

He would sit for four hours in New York City for an interview limited to the scope of the Epstein probe, they said.

Lawmakers from both parties and their staff could ask questions, and the lawyers said both the Clintons and the committee could have their own transcriber present, according to the letter.

Comer rejected the offer from the Clintons’ attorneys as “unreasonable” and said he could not accept such terms.

He could not agree, he said, to changing the interview from a sworn deposition to a voluntary interview, and rejected the way in which the attorneys sought to limit the interview’s scope. 

“But given that he has already failed to appear for a deposition and has refused for several months to provide the Committee with in-person testimony, the Committee cannot simply have faith that President Clinton will not refuse to answer questions at a transcribed interview, resulting in the Committee being right back where it is today,” the Kentucky Republican wrote.

By rejecting the Clintons’ initial offer, Comer had all but ensured that the House would hold a final vote this week on the contempt resolutions.

“Your clients’ desire for special treatment is both frustrating and an affront to the American people’s desire for transparency,” Mr. Comer wrote in a letter to the Clintons’ lawyers on Monday that was also obtained by The New York Times.

Indeed, as The NYTimes reports, after some Democrats on the panel joined Republicans in a vote to recommend charging them with criminal contempt, an extraordinary first step in referring them to the Justice Department for prosecution, the Clintons ultimately waved the white flag and agreed to fully comply with Mr. Comer’s demands.

In an email sent to Mr. Comer on Monday evening, attorneys for the Clintons said their clients would “appear for depositions on mutually agreeable dates” and asked that the House not move forward with a contempt vote, which had been slated for Wednesday.

However, it was not immediately clear Monday evening whether Comer would accept the Clintons' terms and, subsequently, whether the contempt votes would still take place.

Comer said:

"The Clintons' counsel has said they agree to terms, but those terms lack clarity yet again and they have provided no dates for their depositions. The only reason they have said they agree to terms is because the House has moved forward with contempt."

"I will clarify the terms they are agreeing to and then discuss next steps with my committee members," Comer said in a statement.

For Mr. Clinton to testify in the Epstein investigation would be nearly unprecedented.

No former president has appeared before Congress since 1983, when President Gerald R. Ford did so to discuss the celebration of the 1987 bicentennial of the enactment of the Constitution.

When Mr. Trump was subpoenaed in 2022 by the select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol, after he had left office, he sued the panel to try to block it. The panel ultimately withdrew the subpoena.

It was a victory for the Republican chairman, shifting the focus of his panel’s Epstein investigation onto prominent Democrats who once associated with the disgraced financier and his longtime companion, Ghislaine Maxwell.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 21:20

Israel Surrenders To The Truth: Admits 70,000 Killed In Gaza

Via Brian McGlinchey at Stark Realities

Throughout the Israel Defense Forces' post-Oct 7 war on Gaza, the State of Israel and its collaborators and sympathizers around the world have ridiculed the alarming death toll maintained by Palestinian health authorities, dismissing the count as a gross exaggeration aimed at maliciously demonizing Israel. Now, after more than two years of casting doubts, the IDF has finally admitted its own estimates match the Gaza Health Ministry’s accounting of some 70,000 confirmed dead.

It’s a grand example of Israel’s long-running practice of vehemently denying accusations — and vilifying accusers — before eventually acknowledging their validity. Those acknowledgements usually come after overwhelming evidence has been produced, by which time the denials have provided some degree of protection for Israel’s standing. Where the Gaza death toll is concerned, the IDF’s capitulation seems to some extent preemptive, in anticipation of an eventual opening of Gaza to journalists from around the world. However, the long string of denials helped muddy the waters, giving Israel and its allies a degree of cover as the IDF’s astonishing death-and-destruction blitz was carried out.

Palestinians bury war dead in a mass grave (via Egypt Today)

The IDF’s admission came in a Thursday briefing given to reporters by a senior military official. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said approximately 70,000 people have died in Gaza since the Oct 7, 2023 invasion of Israel by Hamas militants. As of Sunday, Gaza health officials say 71,795 have died.

Importantly, both the IDF official and the Gaza Health Ministry says these numbers do not include bodies yet to be discovered under the incomprehensible volume of rubble across Gaza. The Gaza ministry says its numbers only reflect deaths directly resulting from military fire, excluding those who’ve died from disease and malnutrition.

Neither party has yet broken down the death toll into combatants and civilians. However, leading up to the October ceasefire, the IDF said it had killed at least 22,000 combatants in Gaza. Placed atop this week’s 70,000 denominator, that claim now suggests that civilians account for a significant majority of those killed by the IDF. Netanyahu has boasted that the Gaza campaign has achieved the “lowest ratio of civilian to combatant deaths in the history of modern urban warfare.” However, an IDF report leaked in August concluded that 83% of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces were civilians.

The mere fact that the Gaza Health Ministry is part of a Hamas government was all that Israel’s and its proxies and supporters needed to promote the assumption that the ministry’s death tally was a lie — and to buy time for Israel to continue its shattering of Gaza, with financial, military and diplomatic backing of the the United States and other Western governments.

Palestinians carry the bodies of children killed by an IDF strike on a shelter in Gaza City (Hadi Daoud / APA Images)

“The Biden administration, Congress, and the U.S. media played along with Israel’s lies and deception about the horrific death toll in Gaza — over 80 percent civilians; over half, women and children — so that they could gaslight Americans into continued support for Israel,” Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of human rights group DAWN, told the Intercept after the IDF’s capitulation on the death toll.

President Biden was among the first to who sought to discredit the fatality figures coming from Gaza. “I have no notion that the Palestinians are telling the truth about how many people are killed,” Biden told a reporter 18 days after Oct 7, when Gaza authorities had already reported more than 6,000 dead from IDF fire. “I have no confidence in the number that the Palestinians are using.”

Attacks on the Health Ministry’s fatality reporting came from every type of Israel supporter, from politicians to network-TV “analysts” to think tanks and individual social media users. The Intercept’s Jonah Valdez assembled a catalogue of such criticism; here’s a sampling:

• “Every day, Hamas churns out misinformation. They inflate casualty numbers and make false accusations to smear Israel’s reputation,” said Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer.

• “The data that we hear from Hamas is way, way exaggerated, the number of actually purely innocent civilians that have been killed are a tiny fraction,” said Alan Dershowitz, the Israel-promoting lawyer and law professor.

• “Validating the public health arm of Hamas is like validating the public health arms of Al Qaeda and ISIS or the public health arms of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan,” said New York Rep. Ritchie Torres.

• Decrying the media citations of Health Ministry data, the Anti-Defamation League said the Hamas-controlled ministry “distorts information about the casualties in Gaza.”

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a thinly-disguised component of the sprawling Israel lobby, criticized the Biden White House for eventually giving some credence to the Gaza Health Ministry’s reporting. “As a result of trusting numbers from a Hamas-controlled entity, the Biden administration has become more focused on the restraints it can put on Israeli forces than how it can help accelerate Hamas’s defeat,” said senior fellow David Adesnik.

Efforts to suppress the Gaza Health Ministry’s death toll went far beyond pointed rhetoric. In 2024, Israel-catering Republicans and Democrats in the US House passed an amendment that would have barred the State Department from citing the numbers. While it didn’t become law, a similar measure in the defense bill enacted later that year made it illegal for the Pentagon to cite the Health Ministry’s fatality numbers as “authoritative.” It’s doubtful that, in the wake of the IDF’s admission, a repeal is now in the offing.

Israel’s heavy use of 2,000-pound bombs in densely-populated areas — something Western militaries avoid — has figured heavily in Gaza’s enormous death toll (Reuters)

Throughout the war, many third parties — from new bureaus to the World Health Organization and researchers at Johns Hopkins — deemed the Gaza Health Ministry numbers legitimate, based on analysis of the ministry’s detailed reporting, and the ministry’s record of accuracy over previous Israeli military campaigns.

Last summer, a Pentagon insider quietly said that, despite public statements by spokespeople and top officials, the US government believed the Health Ministry’s reporting too. “Along with the World Health Organization and United Nations, we (Department of Defense, Department of State and the U.S. Intelligence Community) consider the Gaza Health Ministry figures to be generally reliable (though not precise),” wrote Army Col Nathan McCormack in a comment exchange on X, using a semi-anonymous, personal account.

In a 2023 reply to another X user, McCormack wrote, “Israel’s responses always (always—not hyperbole) disproportionately target Palestinian civilians.” In June 2025, after Jewish News Syndicate publicized these posts and others that were sharply critical of Israel, McCormack was forced out of his Israel-and-Levant-focused role supporting the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Beyond dismissing the top-line number of deaths reported by the Gaza Health Ministry, Israel has also denied credible accusations that IDF soldiers have frequently and deliberately targeted civilians. In addition to the accounts of Palestinians, accusations have also poured forth from American and European doctors who’ve voluntarily traveled to Gaza and worked in its bombed and blood-splattered hospitals.

“I have two children that I have photographs of, that were shot so perfectly in the chest I couldn’t put my stethoscope over their heart more accurately — and directly on the side of the head, in the same child,” Dr. Mark Perlmutter, a Jewish orthopedic surgeon in North Carolina and vice president of the International College of Surgeons, told CBS Sunday Morning. “No toddler gets shot twice by mistake by the ‘world’s best sniper.’ And they’re dead-center shots.”

Surgeon, Dr. Mark Perlmutter, on what he witnessed in his first month in Gaza. On @CBSSunday

“No toddler gets shot twice by mistake by the world’s best sniper.” pic.twitter.com/wAoRWaNngo

— Samira Mohyeddin سمیرا (@SMohyeddin) July 22, 2024

Twenty other visiting doctors confirmed Perlmutter’s characterization of the IDF’s conduct. One, also an American, said he couldn’t believe what he was seeing on CT scans — “that this many children could be admitted to a single hospital with gunshot wounds to the head." Other groups of doctors have given similar testimonies to other outlets. Israel has said the claim of IDF soldiers targeting civilians is “entirely unfounded and is categorically rejected.”

Israel has also denied widespread reports —substantiated by video — that soldiers shot at civilians gathering at aid distribution points set up last May as malnutrition surged in Gaza and global outrage mounted. By August, more than 1,300 Palestinians were reportedly killed as they sought aid. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called such claims an antisemitic “blood libel.” However, enlisted soldiers and officers told Haaretz that lethal fire was routinely used to control crowds. Said one:

"It's a killing field. Where I was stationed, between one and five people were killed every day. They're treated like a hostile force – no crowd-control measures, no tear gas – just live fire with everything imaginable: heavy machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars. Then, once the center opens, the shooting stops, and they know they can approach. Our form of communication is gunfire."

Other whistleblowers said the IDF routinely killed civilians by dropping hand grenades from modified commercial drones on anyone who wandered into areas of Gaza that were declared off-limits by Israel — even though those forbidden areas weren’t marked on the ground. The IDF campaign has also been marked by attacks on hospitals and ambulances, including an incident where soldiers fired on Palestinian emergency vehicles without provocation, then crushed the vehicles and buried them with bulldozers. The IDF’s initial claim that the vehicles had acted suspiciously were belied by video captured by one of the men killed by Israeli fire.

Then there’s Israel’s relentless bombing that systematically rendered vast swaths of Gaza uninhabitable. The Israeli government condemned accusations that it was engaged in an ethnic cleansing campaign, but those denials fly in the face of explicit statements by senior members of Israel’s government.

“Within a few months...Gaza will be totally destroyed,” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich assured a West Bank settlers conference last May. “The Gazan citizens will be concentrated in the south. They will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places.”

RAFAH, GAZA BEFORE & AFTER.

-TRT World pic.twitter.com/EusxcxEHdP

— International Defence Analysis (@Defence_IDA) July 3, 2025

After the Times of Israel and Haaretz reported the IDF senior official’s validation of Gaza’s death-toll numbers, an IDF spokesman attempted to deflect attention, using social media to say “the details published do not reflect official IDF data.” Stopping short of categorically refuting the official’s statements, the post seemed to reflect an IDF irked that an official prematurely spilled the beans without permission. “Any publication or report on this matter will be released through official and orderly channels,” the post concluded.

If and when the IDF finally lets foreign journalists roam in Gaza, we’ll likely see even more validation of war-crime accusations. As international criminal lawyer Jonathan Meta wrote in a weekend opinion piece at the Times of Israel, “If, for two years, a number was dismissed as propaganda, and then, suddenly, treated as a close approximation, what else was waved away not because it was false, but because it was inconvenient?”

Stark Realities: Invigoratingly unorthodox perspectives for intellectually honest readers. Join thousands of free subscribers at starkrealities.net

* * *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 20:55

Musk's SpaceX Combines With xAI At $1.25 Trillion Valuation

Confirming earlier reports, late on Monday Elon Musk said SpaceX has acquired xAI, a deal that combines his powerful rocket-and-satellite business with his artificial-intelligence startup that is facing steep competition. SpaceX confirmed the deal Monday, posting a memo Musk sent out about the arrangement on its website. 

The deal gives SpaceX a valuation of $1 trillion, and xAI a value of $250 billion, Bloomberg added citing sources. The combined company’s valuation of $1.25 trillion was announced to employees in a memo on Monday.

“SpaceX has acquired xAI to form the most ambitious, vertically-integrated innovation engine on (and off) Earth, with AI, rockets, space-based internet, direct-to-mobile device communications and the world’s foremost real-time information and free speech platform,

The deal brings together two of the largest closely held companies in the world. XAI raised funds at a $230 billion valuation in January, while SpaceX was set to go ahead with a share sale in December at a valuation of about $800 billion. Additionally, the combination will bring together a mature and dominant company in SpaceX, with one that is in a nascent stage. Musk’s xAI is also facing formidable competition from OpenAI, Anthropic and others to build large language models and big businesses around AI technology.

Terms of the offering including price and valuation weren’t disclosed in the statement on SpaceX’s website. 

The company is still expecting to hold an initial public offering later this year, one of the people said. SpaceX had been planning an IPO that could raise as much as $50 billion, Bloomberg News reported earlier.

In his memo, Musk also said global electricity demand for AI can’t be met with data centers on the ground, and that space-based technology will be the only way to scale up AI over the long term (something we discussed in December, sharing several stock picks which have since more than doubled). 

He pitched using solar power from space as a transformative option to ramp up computing resources needed for AI. The executive has been frequently discussing orbital data centers at events and on X.

Polymarket odds of a deal being formalized by June 30 initially came out around 20% on Jan 30 when the first reports of a combination emerged. They then spiked earlier today after the Bloomberg report, and are now trading at 100%. 

*ELON MUSK'S SPACEX CONFIRMS MERGER WITH XAI IN COMPANY MEMO

And we have lift off as odds hit 98%. Congrats to those who bought. https://t.co/k2lqtGyOAR pic.twitter.com/JK6uCEeZ8X

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 2, 2026

On Friday, SpaceX said in a regulatory filing that it wants to deploy an orbital AI network with up to one million satellites over time. The company will need to secure regulatory permission to deploy that fleet. Even if it gets it, which will be problematic to say the least under any Democratic regime, it is unclear just how SpaceX will provide physical service for the airborne data centers. 

It will also need to demonstrate further progress with Starship, a powerful two-stage rocket the company has been testing in flight since 2023. Starship hasn’t yet deployed an operational payload during the test missions, and SpaceX has grappled with setbacks during the development campaign. 

Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported SpaceX and xAI were planning the tie-up, and other news organizations reported on discussions about the deal. 

The deal further entangles Musk’s various business ventures. The billionaire acquired Twitter in late 2022, renamed it X, then merged the site with his artificial intelligence startup xAI in a $33 billion deal. XAI, which also operates chatbot Grok, is an expensive operation, burning around $1 billion a month in service of its stated ambition to gain “a deeper understanding of our universe.” A merger with SpaceX will pool capital and talent, while providing access to computing power. 

SpaceX stands out as arguably Elon's most successful and consistent business. The company, the only American one that can routinely send astronauts to and from the International Space Station, is a key rocket launch provider for both NASA and the US Department of Defense, which the White House has moved to rename the Department of War. The increasing revenue it’s generating from the Starlink network of more than 9,000 satellites is even more significant, now outpacing launch sales and presenting a potential source of funding for xAI’s capital-intensive business.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 20:30

UAE Firm Bought 49% Of Trump-Linked Crypto Startup For $500M: WSJ

Authored by Amin Hagshanas via Cointelegraph,

A UAE-backed investment vehicle quietly agreed to buy nearly half of World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency startup linked to President Donald Trump, just days before he returned to the White House, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

Aryam Investment 1, an Abu Dhabi entity backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, signed a deal in January 2025 to purchase a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial for $500 million, the Journal said, citing documents and people familiar with the matter.

Half of that amount was paid upfront, sending $187 million to Trump family-controlled entities, with additional tens of millions flowing to entities tied to co-founders, including relatives of US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, per the report.

The agreement was reportedly signed by Eric Trump. The Journal reported that the deal had not been publicly disclosed, despite World Liberty later revealing that the Trump family’s stake had fallen sharply.

Tahnoon’s ambitions grow after Trump election

Tahnoon, the brother of the United Arab Emirates president and the country’s national security adviser, has been central to Abu Dhabi’s push to become a global leader in artificial intelligence. Under the Biden administration, his efforts to secure advanced US-made AI chips were limited amid concerns that sensitive technology could reach China, particularly through companies such as G42.

Following Trump’s election, those efforts gained momentum. Tahnoon met multiple times with Trump and senior US officials, and within months the administration committed to granting the UAE access to hundreds of thousands of advanced AI chips annually.

Anatomy of the deal. Source: WSJ

The Journal reported that executives from G42 helped manage Aryam Investment 1 and took board seats at World Liberty as part of the deal, making Aryam the startup’s largest outside shareholder. Weeks before the US-UAE chip framework was announced, another Tahnoon-led firm, MGX, used World Liberty’s stablecoin to complete a $2 billion investment into Binance.

World Liberty and the White House have reportedly denied any wrongdoing. Spokespeople told the Journal that President Trump was not involved in the deal and that it did not provide any influence over US policy.

World Liberty faces US probe calls

Last year, Democratic senators called on US authorities to investigate alleged links between World Liberty Financial’s token sales and sanctioned foreign actors. In a Nov. letter to the Justice Department and Treasury, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Jack Reed cited claims that WLFI governance tokens were bought by blockchain addresses tied to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, as well as Russian- and Iranian-linked entities.

The controversy is heightened by WLFI’s ownership structure, which gives Trump family-linked entities control over the majority of token revenue. Lawmakers argue this creates a direct conflict of interest, as most proceeds from token sales flow to the president’s family.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 20:05

California Plans "Mileage Tax" To Bleed Citizens For Even More Cash

Lawmakers in the California State Assembly have moved to direct the Transportation Commission to prepare a study on the effects of a road charge for delivery to the legislature.  A road charge is a program that imposes fees based on the number of miles each citizen drives over a specified period, and is designed to offset gas tax losses from the wider use of electric cars on California roads. 

In 2014, California passed Senate Bill 1077, authorizing a “Road Usage Charge Technical Advisory Committee” to explore whether the state could replace its gas tax with a mileage-driven tax.  The project was based on the assumption that "cleaner vehicles" and a potential zero-emission future would lead to dwindling gas tax revenues. 

The state has been running road charge pilot programs since 2016. Last year, a pilot project concluded where mileage rates were set at 2.5 cents per mile for light-duty vehicles, such as cars, and other vehicles weighing less than 10,000 pounds. The rate for heavy-duty vehicles is dependent on their weight.

Today, proponents complain that implementation is not going fast enough.  The latest bill is being called an "extension" of the pilot project and not a move to pass the actual tax.   Democrats assert that Republicans are interfering with the project and misrepresenting its intent.  However, taxes based on climate ideology are often kept on the shelf by exploratory committees, waiting for politically opportune moments to pass them quickly with minimal public opposition or debate.  The Democrats are simply biding their time.

It is not clear yet when the mileage tax will be made official or if it will replace the gas tax; it is far more likely that both taxes would ultimately exist in tandem.  Republicans argue that the tax is unfair to residents of rural counties where driving distances are much greater and gas vehicles are common.  The tax is useful, though, for climate "re-wilding":  The globalist idea of forcing people to abandon rural areas and move into population centers so that large swaths of the nation can be "returned to nature."   

California currently has the highest gas taxes in the country.  Total state taxes and environmental fees frequently exceeding .90 cents per gallon, contributing significantly to the nation's highest pump prices ($4.30 per gallon compared to a national average of $2.87). 

Over the past few years Governor Gavin Newsom and Democrats have sought to deflect blame for the state's exorbitant fuel costs by accusing oil companies of "price gouging" consumers; a claim which was ultimately proven false the government's own investigations. State interference has led to multiple refinery closures and the loss of numerous small business gas stations; prices are expected to rise even further.  

The relentless (and baseless) hostility towards the oil industry in liberal states is forcing citizens into electric vehicles, but officials have no intention of letting the public escape taxation.  The concept goes well beyond the old school idea of toll roads.  A charge for mileage could require intrusive surveillance technology, including "black box" GPS devices in every vehicle to track miles driven.  Or, yearly inspections of odometers with arduous paperwork and bureaucratic red tape. 

If they can't tax the gas, they will tax residents simply for driving.  Next comes a tax simply for breathing.          

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 19:40

Border Czar Homan Says More Than 145,000 Illegal Immigrant Children Located

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

U.S. authorities have located more than 145,000 illegal immigrant children who were previously unaccounted for under the Biden administration, border czar Tom Homan said on Jan. 30.

Homan said the findings came as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the FBI, and the Health and Human Services Department’s Office of Refugee Resettlement continue efforts to locate “more than 300,000 unaccompanied alien children” whom he said had been “turned over to unvetted sponsors, lost track of, and weren’t looking forward” under the Biden administration.

“Through their outstanding efforts, they have so far been able to locate more than 145,000,” the border czar said on X. Homan did not provide details on the status or condition of the children.

“President [Donald] Trump promised that we would find these children, and under his strong leadership and with his unwavering support, the patriots at these, and other partner, agencies have been—and will continue to do—just that,” he added.

The investigation followed an August 2024 report by the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Office of Inspector General, which showed that more than 323,000 illegal immigrant children were unaccounted for in the United States.

Of those, more than 291,000 unaccompanied migrant children had not been served court notices by ICE as of May 2024, while another 32,000 were served notices to appear in court but failed to do so, according to the report.

The Trump administration has launched efforts to find and track these children after taking office in January last year. In December, federal agencies located more than 129,143 illegal immigrant children, according to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.

“Too many of these children were exploited, trafficked, and abused. We will continue to ramp up efforts and will not stop until every last child is found,” Noem said on Dec. 19, 2025.

DHS said last November that ICE launched an initiative with state and local law enforcement to conduct welfare checks on 450,000 illegal immigrant children who were placed with unvetted sponsors under the Biden administration. The initiative aims to ensure children’s safety and protect them from exploitation, the agency said.

DHS assistant secretary Tricia McLaughlin said the Trump administration has located more than 24,400 of those children through visits and door-to-door checks.

“Many of the children who came across the border unaccompanied were allowed to be placed with sponsors who were smugglers and sex traffickers,” McLaughlin said in a November 2025 statement.

“We’ve jump-started our efforts to rescue children who were victims of sex and labor trafficking by working with our state and local law enforcement partners to locate these children.”

“President Trump and Secretary Noem are laser-focused on protecting children and will continue to work with federal, state, and local law enforcement to reunite children with their families,” she added.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 19:15

Have Fiat Money, Will Tyrannize

Authored by George Ford Smith via The Mises Institute,

“My fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you. Ask instead what your country has been doing to you and is likely to keep doing to you for as long as it can buy with fiat money the votes of a majority.”

- Gary North, “History Revisionism - High Priests of Woodrow Wilson’s Covenant”

Gary North’s article focuses mostly on Woodrow Wilson’s influence on the inaugural addresses of Eisenhower and Kennedy and their meaning in the world of 2008. As he observed, we have had “one long war since 1917,” with Fed fiat money playing an indispensable supporting role.

Everything the government does costs money, and it produces nothing with which to acquire it. For 2025, it coerced a total of $5.4 trillion from taxpayers and dollar-holders but ended up spending $7 trillion, producing a “rolling” deficit of $1.7 trillion. The biggest fights have always been over whose ox gets gored to fund it. Almost no one wonders whether government as it stands should exist at all.

When Wilson decided to impose democracy on the world, he had the backing of two newly-created theft mechanisms that he signed into law in 1913: The income tax and the central bank. The first extracts wealth directly from those who own it; the second takes it surreptitiously, which, as Copernicus wrote in 1526,

…is noticed by only a few very thoughtful people, since it does not operate all at once and at a single blow, but gradually overthrows governments, and in a hidden, insidious way.

Knowingly or not, Keynes, in 1919, expressed a similar thought with his famous “one man in a million” declaration:

There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.

Americans like to think of themselves as sharp, incapable of being hoodwinked.

If they get scammed a second time they blame themselves for not seeing it—“Fool me twice, shame on me.”

But most of them have missed the biggest scam of all: The Federal Reserve System.

Of the various reasons for missing it, the biggest one is the conviction that market economies are vulnerable to harmful forces that only the state and its central bank can avoid. Experts on the Great Depression such as former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke build their arguments on the grounds that markets sometimes violate the fundamental law of trade—production buys production (sometimes known as Say’s Law)—and need supervision and intervention to avoid this problem.

When the roof began to fall in August 1929, they were at a loss as to which intervention to pursue. They could’ve referred to the Depression of 1921 for guidance when the government watched as the Fed tightened then eased. As one economist explained, “During this period, there was nothing remotely like a fiscal stimulus package, a TARP program, or even a QE policy designed to prevent economic collapse.” Deflation—seen as the villain in the 1930s Depression—cured the earlier slump because prices had been inflated.

Most people who study economics at state-funded universities treat the Fed as a necessary institution, not a scam. Their acquired expertise will include the view that the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has undertaken the formidable task of determining interest rates that best promotes full employment and low inflation. The Fed has a superhuman challenge and if it sometimes fails to please everyone, who could do better?

But it goes deeper. According to a FAQ section posted by the Kansas City Fed, “The Fed has long viewed transparency as a fundamental principle of central banking that supports accountability.” If Fed operations are transparent, most people are blind. The Fed’s operations are largely a mystery to most people. And this is to its advantage.

How the Fed Conducts Its Mission

It is commonly said the Fed prints money when it targets a lower Federal Funds Rate. While this is true, it shrouds all the plumbing that makes it happen.

The Federal Funds Rate is “the interest commercial banks charge when they lend money to one another for extremely short-term periods—literally, overnight.” It influences other rates such as rates for mortgages, loans, credit cards, and savings.

The FOMC meets at least eight times a year to decide what to do about the current Federal Funds Rate. Their discussions are augmented by the Beige Book report of conditions in the 12 Reserve districts. Lowering the rate means the Fed will print more money (in its convoluted manner) to get the consumer price increases it wants. If it decides that prices are running too high, it will pull money out of the economy by selling some of its securities. This is how it attempts to lower or raise the Federal Funds Rate.

Influencing the Federal Funds Rate is “the interest the Fed pays on the funds that banks hold as reserve balances at their Federal Reserve Bank, which is the Interest on Reserves Balances (IORB) rate.” If banks make more keeping their reserves than lending them to other banks, the reason is likely a high IORB. Both the Federal Funds Rate and the IORB rate are considered important tools for manipulating market prices.

Actual market prices sometimes defy Fed intentions to raise them, as seen by the Moore’s Law effects on computer technology. Fortunately for consumers, innovation can outpace monetary debasement in specific sectors.

The Arsonist is Seen as a Firefighter

The Fed sets as a target a 2 percent inflation rate. It defines inflation as “the rate at which the price of goods and services increases over time.” In other words, its job is to increase prices. Price increases, not the Fed actions that increase them, are the measure of inflation. And while many judge the results by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Fed relies on the Personal Consumption Index (PCI), presumably because it covers more consumer spending than the CPI.

Please note, the Fed is not perceiving inflation and reacting to it. It is instead pursuing inflation as a goal, as stated in its mandate. Quoting Chairman Powell:

In conducting monetary policy, we will remain highly focused on fostering as strong a labor market as possible for the benefit of all Americans. And we will steadfastly seek to achieve a 2 percent inflation rate over time.

It is pursuing, in other words, a steady 2 percent depreciation in the purchasing power of the dollar. The Fed has been exceptional in this regard: Since my daughters were born in 1982, consumer prices have risen roughly 235 percent. Its policy bias pushes people to spend rather than save, even if it means they go into debt. Savers get punished, as do people living on fixed incomes. Since savings are the pool from which investment draws, entrepreneurs are punished too. Yet investment is the springboard of rising productivity and higher living standards. It sounds like a predatory computer game but it’s Fed policy.

Inflation provides the wealth transfer. The interest-rate juggling is how it’s accomplished.

Changing Definition

As discussed in On the Origin and Evolution of the Word “Inflation” by Michael F. Bryan, published by the Cleveland Fed, inflation once had an entirely different meaning:

What was once a word that described a monetary cause now describes a price outcome. This shift in meaning has complicated the position of anti-inflation advocates. As a condition of the money stock, an inflating currency has but one origin—the central bank—and one solution—a less expansive money growth rate. But as a condition of the price level, which may have originated from a variety of things (including a depreciating dollar, rising labor costs, bad weather, or a number of factors other than “too much money”), the solution to—and the prudence of— eliminating inflation is much less clear.

Confusion accelerated after the publication of Keynes’s General Theory in 1936:

In addition to separating the price level from the money stock, the Keynesian revolution in economics appears to have separated the word inflation from a condition of money and redefined it as a description of prices. In this way, inflation became synonymous with any price increase.

The Fed thus escapes the public’s scrutiny when prices rise.

Conclusion

If the modern global fiat regime began in 1971 with the Nixon Shock and the stagflation of the 1970s, it deserves applause: it was not an instant disaster.

Fiat money is a politician’s best friend because it creates an invisible tax through the institutionalized depreciation of currency. We shouldn’t expect them to part with it—especially as their perpetual interest in war demands ever greater funding.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/02/2026 - 18:25