On The Lefty-Left's Largely Female Hysteria

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Permission Granted: Go Kill Yourself

“A mascrosocial cluster B crisis is ripping this nation apart because Leftism has hijacked the minds of progressive females who then LARP out dangerous Gnostic heroic delusions.”

- JD Haltigan

Historians of the future, grilling beaver-tail paninis over their campfires, will look back in wonder and nausea at the madness of America — and other regions of Western Civ — in the raging 2020s. It will be clear by then that it was largely a female hysteria, like other departures from social sanity in the annals of the Homo sapiens, such as the outbreak of witchery in the Massachusetts Colony, 1692, the Dancing Plague of Strasbourg, 1518, and the lunacy of Meowing and Biting Nuns that spread through the convents of Europe in the 1400s.

Renee Nicole Good moments before she was shot to death

The Lefty-left has devised what’s called a “permission structure” for women to take the lead in acting-out the concocted grievances of their show-runners in the Democratic Party who, in times gone by, once had a coherent political program, but are now chiefly concerned with staying out of jail. I speak of those two orbiting moons, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and their many subalterns, such as John Podesta, Lisa Monaco, Norm Eisen, Adam Schiff. . . you know the huge cast of characters.

In 2020, they put their African-American clients in the vanguard, hoping to provoke Mr. Trump into a bloody suppression of the George Floyd riots. Didn’t really work, though the riots were a grand distraction from Marc Elias’s behind-the-scenes nefarious setup to queer the balloting process in that year’s election — a thumping success! All that mischief propelled brain-dead “Joe Biden” into the Oval Office, the perfect stooge to front for Hillary and Obama in their campaign to disorder the US body politic.

None of that worked for them in 2024, though, and only, apparently, because Elon Musk got wind of some election-hacking signals from a bunker in Serbia, and somehow managed to put the kibosh on its functionality. . . but that’s another story not quite yet spun for the public. Anyway, Mr. Trump got back into the Oval Office and now there is — forgive the cliché – hell to pay. Folks looking at jail time, famous folks, folks previously inoculated against such a fate. And it’s driving them batshit crazy. What on earth to do?

As it happens, enough Americans are sick and tired of the race hustle that its antics no longer avail the Democratic Party in stirring up animus against order, so now the party sends its women out onto the front lines to bang on police car windows, scream at the officers to perform sex acts on themselves, and impede their duties. In the course of all that action, one of them, Renee Nicole Good, got shot last week gunning her Honda Pilot at officer Jonathan Ross.

Ms. Good’s female wife, Becca Good, wailed in the aftermath, “I made her come down here, it’s my fault.” Come down to do what? To play a part in the show. To use Renee’s Honda Pilot to block the street so that ICE agents couldn’t do their job (which is removing illegal immigrants for processing and deportation). Who told Becca that was a good idea? The Lefty-left’s permission structure told her. So, Becca played her part in the show, ostentatiously recording a video of the scene, yelling taunts at the officers, telling her wife, Renee, to disobey the officer’s command to “get out of the car” and instead to drive away. Becca will have that on her conscience forever, alas. Bet you wouldn’t want to be her.

What is it in American women these days that makes them susceptible to such a demonic permission structure that the Lefty-left uses to make them pawns in this game? Most obviously, American women are less and less inclined to enter healthy relations with men. Why is that? Probably several reasons. American men are less and less good husband material — except at society’s tippy-top where they make obscene amounts of money in activities that are, frankly, pretty antisocial when you look hard — like, running monopolies, inducing the entire population into ill health, and selling out their country. The great wad of men in the classes below the tippy-top face ever-reduced opportunities to make a living, let alone support a wife and children.

Both American men and women are working pretty hard to make themselves sexually unappealing. Obesity is epidemic now that the national diet consists almost entirely of pizza and soda pop. You have to wonder how the idea of facial piercings, nose-rings, and massive tattoos caught on. Half the women in this country look like they could be harpooneers on the whaler Pequod. Meanwhile, the tubby men with no prospects can occupy themselves with free porn on their phones — which, you might admit, kind of cuts down on their motivation to even try to meet real women, let alone protect and care for them.

The result of all this dysfunction is a society with deeply disrupted relations between men and women, people who can’t produce children — or, by happenstance, as in the case of Renee Nicole Good, two children who did not live with her — people of both sexes who can’t enact the basic roles of human adulthood, people of both sexes who can hardly find gainful employment, and you end up with a land of broken people, broken families, and behavior that verges into madness.

And these broken people are egged on to self-destruction by the cynical managers of a criminal political party desperate to hide its crimes and avoid prosecution. When the arraignments begin, the derangements will ebb. Just watch and see.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 16:25

Socialism, Not Sanctions, Is Responsible For The Destruction Of Venezuela

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Venezuela is not poor due to sanctions. It is poor because the Chavez-Maduro regime stole hundreds of billions of dollars and demolished the productive fabric of the economy.

Venezuela had 12,700 private companies when Chávez came to power, according to Conindustria. Only about 3,800 manufacturing industries are still operating, of which around 3,200 are privately owned and 600 are state‑owned.

The assault on private property culminated with the expropriation of more than 690 companies in twelve years. Government-run businesses failed, and large state-owned companies in Venezuela are technically insolvent or heavily loss-making.

Socialism of the XXI century, they called it: government expropriations, price controls, capital controls, and complete absence of legal and investor security.

The socialist regime arrived in a period of rising oil prices and squandered one of the largest oil bonanzas in history while destroying the national oil company, which was one of the most efficient when Chavez arrived in power and is now riddled with debt of more than $41.6 billion, and production has plummeted to less than a third of what it was.

The extraordinary oil revenues of more than 960 billion dollars under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro were stolen, squandered, and wasted.

Government spending was out of control, and the state ran double-digit fiscal deficits in the period of oil price-linked economic boom. 

A deep structural crisis years before U.S. oil sanctions

You may have read the lie that the reason behind Venezuela’s suffering is US sanctions. This is false.

Sanctions did not start until 2019, and the economy was already in deep recession and hyperinflation. Venezuela’s economy had already entered a deep structural crisis years before the U.S. oil sanctions were imposed.

Furthermore, those sanctions were targeted against leaders of the dictatorship, not the broad economy.

Real GDP started to slump in 2013, and by 2017 the economy had already lost a large share of its output

The collapse in output, triple‑digit and then hyperinflation, and widespread shortages all began when the country had full access to global markets and international finance.​

Real GDP started to slump in 2013, and by 2017 the economy had already lost a large share of its output. Hyperinflation roared into 2017, when monthly price rises exceeded 50%, well before the 2019 sanctions.

The human rights violations, institutionalised murder, and lack of legal and personal rights highlighted by Amnesty International were there years before any sanction.

Trade with major powers, collapse at home

Venezuela has trade agreements with the world’s major powers. The United States is one of its main trading partners, along with the European Union, China, Russia, Turkey, India, and Brazil, among others, according to the Venezuelan government’s own data.

Moreover, Venezuela has been one of the largest beneficiaries of soft loans and debt restructurings in the entire region since 2013.

In fact, the first person to acknowledge that there is no embargo whatsoever is dictator Maduro, who boasts of the large exports and trade deals and proudly announced $18 billion dollars from exports in 2024.

By 2023–2024 Venezuela was producing barely one-fifth to one-quarter of what it did around 2012–2013

Despite receiving more than 78 billion in financial support and investment from China and Russia, according to CRS figures, Venezuela’s economy has been demolished, its oil industry has almost collapsed, and the economy has lost most of its GDP, with one of the worst hyperinflation and migration crises in modern peacetime history.

The IMF estimates that real GDP contracted by about 75% between 2013 and 2021, while other studies show an 80% fall in GDP in less than a decade, which implies that by 2023–2024 Venezuela was producing barely one-fifth to one-quarter of what it did around 2012–2013 and not much more than half of its 1998–1999 level in real terms.

The assault on the private sector

At the start of the Chávez era, Venezuela produced around 3.3–3.5 million barrels per day, an efficient and professional oil company respected worldwide.

In 2003, the Socialist government fired about 20,000 PDVSA workers, including most of the technical and managerial professionals, and replaced them with political appointments, destroying the company in one strike.

The company was converted into a political machine used to finance the government’s “missions” to spread its political influence. PDVSA became a direct funder of obscure off-budget projects and political spending.

Underinvestment, corruption, and politicised management caused a continuous collapse in production, which fell from 3.5 million barrels per day to less than a million by 2025, even though the country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. This is not a story of scarcity but of deliberate decapitalisation of the productive asset.

Price controls, exchange controls, and import licensing completed the destruction of the economy

The assault on the private sector extended far beyond energy. The Chávez and Maduro governments expropriated or nationalised firms in steel, cement, electricity, telecommunications, agriculture, banking, retail, and food distribution.

Constant threats of seizure, legal uncertainty, and discretionary punishment pushed many local and foreign firms to exit operations.

Meanwhile, politicisation made the state-owned companies and the expropriated businesses collapse under inept management and direct political theft of resources.

Price controls, exchange controls, and import licensing completed the destruction of the economy. When inflation soared, the government’s answer was to impose more controls and forced sales, which emptied shelves, cut production, and accelerated capital flight, deepening the economic collapse.

From oil wealth to a prison

From 1998 to 2025, government spending tied to political “missions” multiplied, financed directly from PDVSA and special funds controlled by the presidency.

The social consequences have been catastrophic. Poverty in Venezuela has risen to 80–90%; millions have fled the country, creating one of the largest displacement crises in the world, while the domestic banking system and credit intermediation have been dismantled.

The Maduro regime is usurping power, has rigged all elections and keeps hundreds of political prisoners. Maduro’s forces killed 9,465 people in 10 years, according to Provea. “They institutionalised state killings,” reads a 2024 report.

Venezuela’s collapse is not the inevitable fate of an oil‑rich country or the result of external sanctions; it is the product of deliberate policies, theft, and squandering.

A historic oil windfall was wasted, PDVSA was systematically decapitalised from within, and the institutionalised robbery was completed through expropriations and capital controls, leaving an economy unable to grow even when the global peers thrive.

The lesson from Venezuela is that socialism has made a rich and prosperous nation one of the poorest in the world and converted the country into a prison.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 15:45

UBS Explains Why Trump's 10% Credit Card Rate Cap Is "Unlikely" To Happen

Update (1520ET):

Analysts Erika Najarian and Tim Chiodo told clients that President Trump's proposed 10% one-year cap on credit card interest rates is "unlikely."

The analysts explain their reasoning:

With the midterms ahead and affordability remaining top of mind for voters, President Trump posted on social media that he is calling for a 10% rate cap on credit card APRs beginning on January 20, 2026, effective for one year.

We note that:

1. It would take an Act of Congress for such rate caps to be put in place, given the overwhelming legal challenges an executive order would likely face;

2. The legal challenges faced by the CFPB's late fee rule (dead in the water) are a precedent for non-Congressional action;

3. and media reports indicate that credit card rate caps were discussed but failed to be included in the 2025 Genius Act, suggesting that the industry lobby made an impact.

Additionally, the analysts said the 10% cap on credit card APRs would reduce credit availability for working-class Americans. They warned that 26% of credit card spending would be at severe risk, implying that a softening in the consumer economy would likely materialize.

Analysts say a 10% credit card rate cap would hit Bread Financial and Synchrony Financial the hardest, with Capital One also likely to underperform. JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Visa, and Mastercard would see milder negative impacts, while American Express is viewed as the most resilient, thanks to its high-end customer base and heavy reliance on fee income rather than interest income.

*  *  * 

European and US credit card companies are sliding in premarket trading after President Trump said on Truth Social late Friday (read report) that a 10% cap on credit card interest rates is very much on the table as part of his push to improve affordability.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said Americans are being "ripped off" by credit card companies that charge interest rates of 20 to 30% and vowed that his administration will put an end to it.

"AFFORDABILITY! Effective January 20, 2026, I, as President of the United States, am calling for a one-year cap on Credit Card Interest Rates of 10%," the president stated. 

The cap's proposed start date coincides with the anniversary of Trump's second-term inauguration and, if implemented, would fulfill his 2024 election campaign pledge.

Two months later... https://t.co/POf3Y4jlrq pic.twitter.com/D4BlY4PD1i

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 10, 2026

American Express, Capital One, Visa, Mastercard, JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo all declined in New York premarket trading, with Capital One and Citi among the hardest hit due to their heavy exposure to credit card lending.

Premarket movers:

• American Express -4.4%,

• Capital One Financial -8.7%,

• Mastercard -2% and Visa -1.6%

Also track:

• Wells Fargo -2.1%,

• JPMorgan Chase -3%,

• Citi -4%

European lenders that offer US credit cards were also declining late in the session:

• Barclays -3.2%,

• Santander -1.6%

• and HSBC -.2%

Goldman analyst Gaelle Jarrousse commented on credit card firms and bank stocks tumbling in the European cash session, as well as the downward pressure on the same types of companies in the U.S. premarket:

Let's start with BARCLAYS down 4-5% at the open on the US CREDIT CARD CAP. Negative headlines post Friday US close from Trump who suggested a cap on credit cards to 10%. However, for this to work, the congress needs to pass a law and we have seen in the past, senators such as Sanders introducing bills proposing a 10% cap but none of them advanced into law. On top of that, banks and credit cards companies have started to lobby and highlighted the contraction of credit card availability that will result from such a measure.

. . .

The US credit cards headline is adding to the pressure we have seen on banks over past few sessions given valuation level (sector on 9.5x 27e) and positioning.

In a separate note, JPMorgan analyst Vivek Juneja warned there will be a "material hit" if this is enacted and "could push consumers into more expensive debt."

Juneja said that while the news will be negative for bank stocks, "this rate cap would not address the root of the problem," which is the rising Fed fund rate.

He said that among the banks in the JPM universe: "Citi has the highest share of credit card loans at 23% of total, followed by JP Morgan (16%), Bank of America (9%), US Bancorp (8%), and Wells Fargo (6%)."

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Philip Richards pointed out that Trump's demand for lower credit card rates "might not be enforced in full given the strength of US bank lobby groups."

Cowen analyst Moshe Orenbuch said, "This is a resurgence of Trump's campaign promise, and an escalation of the headline risk for credit card issuers."

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 15:20

Most US Debanking Cases Stem From Government Pressure, Report Says

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

The majority of debanking cases in the US are a result of government pressure, rather than individual banks’ policies, according to a new report from the American think tank the Cato Institute.

Cato Institute analyst Nicholas Anthony explained in a report on Thursday that debanking could take several forms: religious or political, the idea that a financial institution closes accounts solely due to political or religious belief or affiliation; operational, when a bank chooses to close a customer’s account as it’s no longer in the bank’s interest; or government, when a government pressures a financial institution to close a customer’s account. 

“While media and political narratives often attribute these closures to political or religious discrimination, this study finds that the majority of debanking cases stem from governmental pressure,” he said.

Cato Institute analyst Nicholas Anthony said there are generally four types of debanking. Source: Cato Institute

“Based on public evidence, governmental debanking appears to be the most significant issue majority of cases over time can be found where government officials have intervened in the market by either directly or indirectly telling banks how to run their business.”

Crypto firms have been facing account closures and denials of banking services for years, and many in the industry have speculated these actions are part of a policy-driven effort to suppress the digital assets sector, particularly by the Biden administration.

Two forms of government debanking

Anthony said government debanking can take two forms: direct, when it uses a letter or court order to order an account closure, or indirect, when lawmakers use regulations and legislation to force an account closure.

He cites the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation sending letters to financial institutions ordering them to halt crypto-related activity as an example of direct action.

Source: Cato Institute

“Furthermore, the agency failed to provide a timeline or follow up with those financial institutions. So, in practice, these letters were effectively termination orders,” Anthony added.

In December, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon denied debanking customers based on their religious or political affiliation during an interview with Fox News. He also claimed both sides of politics in the US, Democrats and Republicans, were equal offenders when it came to leaning on banks to debank people.

In November, Jack Mallers, the CEO of the Bitcoin Lightning Network payments company Strike, accused JPMorgan of closing his personal accounts without explanation, and Houston Morgan, the head of marketing at non-custodial crypto trading platform ShapeShift, shared a similar story the same month. 

Congress has the power to end debanking

US President Donald Trump’s administration has addressed this alleged debanking through executive orders on debanking, while appointing agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission with more pro-crypto leaders. 

However, Anthony argues that Congress needs to take more action by reforming the Bank Secrecy Act, repealing confidentiality laws, and permanently ending reputational risk regulation.

“Doing so would reduce the incentives to debank, expose how widespread debanking has become, and cut out the tools that the government has used to pressure banks and other financial institutions,” he said.

“If Congress wants to bring relief and reduce the debanking phenomenon, it’s time to eliminate the confidentiality that has shrouded the system. It’s time to take the practice of reputational risk regulation off the table. And it’s time to reform the Bank Secrecy Act regime that has deputized financial institutions as law enforcement investigators.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 15:05

Small Modular Reactor Developers Push New Partnerships And Use Cases

Hot on the heels of the biggest nuclear energy deal by a tech company to date, one which saw Meta validate Oklo's "proof of concept" by committing to purchase 1.2 GW of new energy ...

... peer Small Module Reactor (SMR) developers, Nano Nuclear and NuScale Power, released their own updates on new engineering partnerships and potential use cases.

Nano Nuclear, which in recent months had focused on its project at the University of Illinois (UI), had put its various other business segments - including an exciting project with its laser uranium enrichment partner LIS Technnologies - on the backburner. The UI project is a full-scale deployment of Nano’s Kronos reactor design, a 15 MW high-temperature, gas-cooled reactor (HTGR).

While the project may include a power purchase agreement eventually, its primary purpose is R&D of the reactor design. Nano investors are hoping that it will soon become a source of revenue as well, while shorts are pressing their skepticism, which explains why more than a third of the company's float - a record - is now shorted. 

Nano had previously announced the potential for deploying a fleet of reactors, but the study itself could take months, with a Final Investment Decision likely years away. But in the company's latest news, Nano unveiled some real traction with the announcement that it has selected EPC firm Ameresco to develop and deploy all three of their reactor designs: Kronos, Zeus, and Loki. As the initial assessment advances, the companies plan to coordinate on government funding and other available incentives.

$NNE Breaking News: "NANO Nuclear Signs Memorandum of Understanding with Ameresco (NYSE: $AMRC) to Explore the Deployment of Advanced Microreactor Technologies on Federal and Commercial Sites - $AMRC is a leading energy infrastructure solutions provider https://t.co/67BhVSKDqy

— NANO Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ: NNE) (@nano_nuclear) January 12, 2026

Ameresco announced partnerships in 2025 with the two other junior public reactor developers, Terrestrial Energy and Terra Innovatum. With Terra also working on an HTGR design, and Terrestrial working on a molten salt reactor (MSR), Ameresco holds a relatively full docket for a firm that has yet to deploy any nuclear plants, big or small. Adding to the likelihood that deployment timelines are likely not going to move rapidly, executives at Ameresco said they were looking years past 2027 for reactor deployments on the recent earnings call:

“I would not say 2026 or 2027 though. That is a little early, even for a traditional power plant … I think the opportunity is very real, especially with the Army announcements that just came out a couple of weeks ago and more from the Department of Energy that we believe that it is certainly in the future. Probably a few more years than 2027.”

Meanwhile, light water SMR developer NuScale published the results of a study performed with Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The study evaluated the economics of utilizing the heat and electricity produced by NuScale’s 77 MWe Nuclear Power Module (NPM) for use by a chemical processing facility. Results indicate the arrangement would lead to profitable operations for the reactor developer famous for their licensing Odyssey with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission — only they’re less famous for gaining a Design Certification for their administrative efforts and more famous for failing miserably to ever capitalize on the achievement.

NuScale has made multiple announcements regarding potential use cases, including training facilities, desalination plants, and now industrial process heat. They currently hold a loose agreement with the Tennessee Valley Authority to construct dozens of NPMs for up to 6 GW of new generation capacity, coupled with $25 billion of support from the Japan-US trade agreement.

Expect to see more "steel in the ground" news from Nano and NuScale as they seek to convince investors they are 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 14:45

Going Full Spartacus: Democrats Hold Chest-Thumping Press Conferences To Fuel Anti-ICE Rage

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Say her name.” From Portland to Philadelphia, the mantra is being used by politicians to fuel the anger over the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis. While many of us have noted that the shooting appears to fall within the guidelines set by the Supreme Court for the justified use of lethal force, there is an effort to make Good the personification of a “resistance movement.”

Across the country, Democrats are holding “I am Spartacus” moments like a low-budget casting call for B-grade actors, chest-thumping demands for everything from the defunding of ICE to the arrest of law enforcement officers. Sen Cory Booker (D., N.J.) was widely ridiculed for his own such moment years ago. However, he found that while most people found his self-aggrandizement cringeworthy, many longed for such demonstrations.

From Portland to Philadelphia, Democratic leaders are engaging in performative press conferences to try to outdo each other in declaring the shooting of Renee Good “murder” or declaring a “war” with the federal government over the enforcement of immigration policies.

The tone was set almost immediately after the shooting by Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who not only declared the officer a murderer but called claims of self-defense “bllsh*t” and told ICE, “get the f–k out” of the city.

When many of us denounced his conduct, he mocked his critics by apologizing if his profanity “offended their Disney princess ears.”

Frey seemed to trigger a race to the bottom. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and others rushed to the nearest camera to condemn the officer and fuel the rage.  Democratic politicians seemed to struggle to find ways to up the ante with new levels of profanity or escalated threats. Rep. Dan Goldman (D., NY) is facing a serious challenge from a Mamdani-endorsed socialist in the primary and has fought to out-rage the competition.

Goldman not only called for the arrest of the officer but also moved to strip all ICE officers of immunity. Goldman is, of course, protected by immunity as a member of Congress and, as an heir to the Levi-Strauss fortune, can afford any litigation. However, he wants to strip protections for law enforcement officers who put their lives on the line every day. It seems that no price is too great to secure Goldman a third term.

In Portland, Mayor Keith Wilson and Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek, expressed outrage over ICE being in the city after a shooting. It did not seem to matter that the wounded were two suspected Tren de Aragua gang associates who were shot after allegedly trying to run over ICE officers.

Portland Police Chief Bob Day finally confirmed that Luis David Nico Moncada and Yorlenys Betzabeth Zambrano-Contreras are Venezuelan criminal illegal aliens with ties to TdA. He admitted that the Portland Police Department hesitated to disclose the suspected gang connection because it did not want to be accused of “historic injustice of victim blaming” by law enforcement.

He then began to cry, saying, “It saddens me that we even have to qualify these remarks because I understand or at least have attempted to understand your voices, your concern, your fear, your anger.”

In Philadelphia, District Attorney Larry Krasner and Sheriff Rochelle Bilal took the performative press conference to a new and absurd level.

Krasner, who has been known to make sensational and unfulfilled pledges in the past, told ICE to stay out of the city, and portrayed their conduct as criminal, adding, “You will be arrested. You will stand trial. You will be convicted.”

Philadelphia Sheriff Rochelle Bilal then went full Spartacus in an embarrassing demonstration more befitting an Antifa activist than a law enforcement official.

She called ICE officers “fake, wannabe” law enforcement and claimed that they were violating both “legal law” and “moral law.”

Bilal pandered to the mob, warning the federal government that  “You don’t want this smoke. Cuz we will bring it to you.” She added that “the criminal in the White House would not be able to keep” ICE agents from heading to jail.

These are leaders who are openly playing to the mob. In my forthcoming book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, I discuss how elected officials often try to enlist mobs to advance their political agendas — only to be consumed by the unrest they helped fuel. This yielding to a “mobocracy” was one of the critical dangers that the Framers sought to deter through protections against majoritarian tyranny.

The problem with these “I am Spartacus” moments is that you need an actual Spartacus. Instead, we have the violence without the cause.

We have the same figures who have trafficked in rage for centuries, including recently in this very city.

In Minneapolis, a Black Lives Matter leader seemed to advocate violence as a vehicle for change, suggesting that the prosecution of officers in the George Floyd case only occurred because protesters burned down part of the city in 2020.  She told protesters to ignore “don’t set [the city] on fire” pleas.

In the movie, Caesar is asked if he, too, had “left us for…the mob.” Caesar responds, “I’ve left no one, least of all Rome. This much I’ve learned … Rome is the mob.”

These politicians are attempting to harness the power of the mob to direct it against their political opponents.  One Antifa activist called for people to “show up with guns and end this,” adding that “this is what the Founding Fathers gave us the Second Amendment for.”

In reality, what we are watching are calls and performative rage that led not to the American Revolution but the French Revolution. If history is any measure, these “new Jacobins” will find that they are no more protected from the rage than their opponents, as today’s revolutionaries become tomorrow’s reactionaries.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the forthcoming “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution,” which will be released on Feb. 3 as part of the celebration of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 14:25

Trump May Freeze Exxon Out Of Venezuela After CEO Darren Woods Called It "Uninvestable"

Tensions flared between Exxon Mobil and the White House after CEO Darren Woods cast doubt on Venezuela’s appeal as an investment destination during a closed-door meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and other oil executives last week, according to Reuters.

Woods argued that without sweeping legal and regulatory changes, the country could not support major foreign investment, describing its current system as “uninvestable.”

Trump had convened the meeting only days after U.S. forces removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in an overnight operation and urged the industry to commit as much as $100 billion to rebuilding Venezuela’s energy sector. Instead of gaining momentum, the talks were quickly overshadowed by Woods’ skepticism.

Reuters writes that Trump publicly voiced his frustration on Sunday while returning to Washington aboard Air Force One. “I didn’t like Exxon’s response,” he said. “I’ll probably be inclined to keep Exxon out. I didn’t like their response. They’re playing too cute.”

Exxon has long been entangled in Venezuela’s oil history. Along with ConocoPhillips and Chevron, it was once a leading foreign partner of the state firm PDVSA before nationalizations under Hugo Chavez forced Exxon and ConocoPhillips to exit the country and pursue arbitration. Court rulings later ordered Venezuela to pay more than $13 billion collectively to the two companies for seized assets.

Woods reminded Trump of that history, saying, “We’ve had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes from what we’ve historically seen here.” He also stressed that investment protections and reform of the hydrocarbons law were essential, adding, “If we look at the legal and commercial constructs and frameworks in place today in Venezuela today, it’s uninvestable.”

ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance echoed the caution, telling Trump his company was the largest non-sovereign creditor in Venezuela and calling for a broad overhaul of the country’s energy system and debt structure. Trump replied that ConocoPhillips would recover much of what it was owed but insisted the future would begin anew. “We’re not going to look at what people lost in the past because that was their fault,” he said.

The president also made clear that Washington would control which companies are allowed to operate in Venezuela. “You’re dealing with us directly. You’re not dealing with Venezuela at all. We don’t want you to deal with Venezuela,” he said.

Recall, last week Trump met with leaders from Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips, Continental, Halliburton, HKN, Valero, Marathon, Shell, Trafigura, Vitol Americas, Repsol, Eni, Aspect Holdings, Tallgrass, Raisa Energy and Hilcorp. 

Trump has argued that Venezuela’s vast oil reserves could help revive its economy while also benefiting U.S. consumers and energy companies. In a recent interview, he said he wants companies to commit at least $100 billion to “rebuild the whole oil infrastructure” in the country.

The administration has tightened pressure on Venezuela through a new oil “quarantine,” including the seizure of another tanker Friday, the fifth such action in recent weeks. Rubio said the strategy gives the U.S. “tremendous leverage” and that Washington plans to sell up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude on the open market, with the proceeds under U.S. control.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 14:05

10Y Auction Stops Through In Solid Start For 2026 Treasury Sales

Shortly after a solid 3Y auction, the first of the year, priced just through the WI by 0.1bps, moments ago we got the first sale of benchmark 10Y paper for 2026 in what was another solid auction.

Today's sale of $39BN in 10Y paper priced at 4.173% just after 1pm ET. This was barely changed from the 4.175% in December in what appears to be duration paralysis. And with the When Issued trading at 4.180%, the auction stopped through the WI by 0.7bps, this was the strongest 10Y auction since September. 

More paralysis: the bid to cover was 2.554, virtually unchanged from last month's 2.550, and just above the six-auction average of 2.51. As one can see in the chart below, we are now about a decade into the BtC being within 10-20bps of 2.50% in what may be the biggest autopilot trade in the US.

Turning to the internals, Indirects took down 69.7% of the auction, just a hair below last month's 70.2% (and just above the 69.5% recent average). Directs took 24.5%, up from 21.0 in December and the highest since 2014. This left Dealers with just 5.8%, the second lowest on record with justs the 4.2% in Sept 25 lower.

Overall, this was a strong 10Y auction, and a solid start to the year for coupon issuance. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 13:37

Republicans Have Quickly Rallied Behind Trump On Venezuela

A week after "Operation Absolute Resolve", which saw the U.S. military attack targets in Venezuela to capture and extract President Nicolás Maduro, the international community is still grappling over the legality of the U.S. intervention.

While some experts are saying that the illegality of the U.S. attack is beyond doubt, U.S. allies are hesitant to openly denounce the U.S. actions.

The European Union, for example, issued a statement calling for calm and restraint by all parties involved. While acknowledging that Maduro lacked the legitimacy of a democratically elected president, the statement backed by 26 EU member states stressed that it was the right of the Venezuelan people to determine their own future. While calling for everyone, under all circumstances, to uphold the principles of international law and the UN Charter, the EU stops short of openly accusing the U.S. of violating these rules.

Meanwhile, as Statista's Felix Richter reports, in the U.S., we saw a familiar story unfold, with a strong partisan divide opening up on a question that most Americans agreed on just a few months ago. “Would you support the U.S. using military force to invade Venezuela?”, YouGov asked in October 2025. Back then, just 15 percent of respondents – 7 percent of Democrats and 28 percent of Republicans – voiced their support. When YouGov posed the same question this week, i.e. after the raid that captured Maduro, replacing “would you” with “do you”, the picture looked entirely different: While support among Democrats was still very low at 13 percent, 74 percent of Republicans now said that they somehow or strongly supported the U.S. using military force in Venezuela.

You will find more infographics at Statista

These results highlight Trump’s still-intact ability to rally his supporters behind him by spinning the narrative in a way works in his favor.

Back in 2024, Trump ran on the promise to avoid getting dragged into wars overseas, much to the liking of his base.

A little more than a year later, the Trump administration appears to have abandoned this non-interventionist stance in favor of a new America-First foreign policy that stretches across the entire Americas, all the way from Greenland to Cape Horn.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 13:25

Burning The Bridgeheads

By Rabobank

2-year Treasury yields closed 4.4bps higher at 3.53% on Friday after December non-farm payrolls showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.4% and wage growth accelerating despite slower-than-expected hiring. Fed-dated OIS has seen a modest upward re-pricing in the market-implied path of the Fed Funds Rate, though two 25bp cuts by the end of the year remain in the curve with the first fully priced by June.

Breaking news that the Fed has just been issued subpoenas by the Department of Justice relating to statements made by Powell in testimony to Congress could see further recalibration in expectations of the future rate path. Powell has made a statement saying that concerns over his congressional testimony is simply a pretext and that “the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”

In essence, Powell is correct, the real target of the administration is central bank independence which renders the price of money immune to the democratic process and to coordination with other levers of national policy to achieve national policy goals. Independent central banking is a neoliberal shibboleth, but the neoliberal era is clearly over. For further evidence of that (as if it was necessary), look no further than the US’s recent moves towards capital controls and financial repression such as the ban on dividends and stock buybacks for weapons manufacturers, the banning of international wire transfers for welfare recipients, the proposed capping of credit card interest at 10% and the $200bn purchase of mortgage-backed securities designed to pressure lending rates lower. We’re sensing a pattern...

This week will bring the release of the December CPI report on Tuesday. That will give markets another chance to play the game of “up a little bit, down a little bit” even while the global economic and security architecture is being re-made around us in real time. Following comments from President Trump that the United States intends to acquire Greenland “the easy way” (i.e. by buying it) or “the hard way” (via military annexation), Danish PM Mette Frederikson said on Sunday that “we are ready to defend our values – wherever it is necessary – also in the Arctic. We believe in international law and in peoples’ rights to self-determination.”

Frederiksen’s comments recall Mark Twain’s observation that “it ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble; it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” In this case, some might argue that the international law that Denmark believes in is a polite fiction and that it has only been a thing in the past to the extent that it was enforced by the weight of US arms. Volodymyr Zelenskyy articulated as much at the United Nations last year when he said “...that’s the reality. Not international law, not cooperation – weapons decide who survives”. How can international law conceivably be enforced against US arms rather than by them? Who will do the enforcing?

So, while Frederiksen might say that Denmark is ready to defend its values, the reality is that it is not ready to defend Greenland. If the United States is truly determined to acquire the territory one way or another, it will ultimately prove successful. Frederiksen said last week that a US annexation of Greenland would spell the end of NATO, which is probably correct. This then becomes a problem for the entire European Union, who arguably need NATO much more than the Americans do. Are France and Germany happy to run that risk so that Denmark can keep Greenland?

Only a few short years ago the idea that the United States would be willing to risk what Zbigniew Brzezinski called its “democratic bridgehead” on the Eurasian continent by threatening the collapse of NATO seemed unthinkable. However, the critical tone taken towards Europe in the US’s new national security strategy and the ongoing evidence of appetite for rapprochement with Russia in an effort to isolate China calls those old assumptions into question.

So, is the US just playing Europe hot and cold or has something really changed? Europe’s lack of military and monetary sovereignty (see yesterday’s FT here) means that it cannot afford to gamble one way or the other, so the probability of capitulation to Trump over Greenland in a similar manner to how Europe capitulated over tariffs should not be dismissed. With EURUSD still trading above 1.16 at time of writing on a somewhat superficial rearmament narrative, it would seem to me that these risks are not in the price.

While the US plays hardball with Europe over the future of Greenland, the potential for a new democratic bridgehead on the Eurasian continent is appearing. Pro-democracy mass demonstrations in Iran are continuing despite reports that government crackdowns have resulted in the deaths of more than 500 protesters. President Trump has repeatedly warned the Iranian regime that the US may seek to intervene if protestors are harmed and the Wall Street Journal today reports that Trump will be briefed on Tuesday about possible US actions that could include distributing Starlink systems to counteract a shutdown of the internet, or even military intervention. Reza Pahlavi, the Iranian Crown Prince in exile, has called for protestors to continue to occupy public spaces and hinted at a return to the country. Did anybody have the restoration of the Shah on their 2026 bingo card?

The Iranian turmoil and developments in Yemen have contributed to a rise in oil prices in recent days that has more than wiped out the price falls that came in the aftermath of the US’s capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. While this is mostly short-term market noise, the impact of US actions on supply chains is much more substantive.

Economics students are told that economics is the study of scarcity and taught to solve constrained optimization problems. However, these problems are generally academic abstractions, and by the time students finish their PhDs and head off to work for Treasury or a central bank they seemingly forget about real factor constraints and proceed to make simplifying assumptions that supply will be available when needed. In reality, the detail surrounding the availability (or otherwise) of physical stuff matters. Denmark will discover this if they care to test the theory that Greenland can be defended without the presence of physical military materiel.

Craig Tindale excellently describes this dawning realization for Western policymakers as ‘the return of matter’. Our own Michael Every has articulated the idea as “what is GDP *for*”. In a nutshell, what is being described is supply chain sovereignty and this will continue to be the conversation going forward as Western powers pivot away from financialization and back toward industrialisation. Once more for the people in the back: *the neoliberal period is over*.

In the case of Venezuela, we find expression of this idea in the fact that it isn’t the size of the country’s oil reserves that is most critical, but the fact that those reserves are of a heavy grade suited to US gulf refineries and now prevented from flowing to Chinese refineries that were established on the assumption that supply would be forthcoming. This raises the prospect of Chinese refineries becoming stranded assets – threatening China’s energy security. That threat is compounded if supplies from Iran – where ~90% of oil exports go to China – are also interrupted by changes on the geopolitical chessboard.

So, while it is certainly a worry that the United States may appear content to burn the democratic bridgehead in Europe to suit its own interests, it is also burning China’s bridgeheads in the Western Hemisphere and the Middle East. Is this net bullish or bearish for Pax Americana? The answer to that question ought to be helpful in directing capital flows in 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 13:05

Noem: DHS Sending "Hundreds More" Federal Agents To Minneapolis

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in an interview on Jan. 11 that “hundreds more” federal officers will be sent to Minneapolis on Jan. 11 and Jan. 12 to carry out immigration-related operations in the city.

“We’re sending more officers today and tomorrow, they’ll arrive, there'll be hundreds more, in order to allow our ICE and our Border Patrol individuals that are working in Minneapolis to do so safely,” Noem told Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures.”

DHS recently sent 2,000 federal immigration agents to the city. Noem said the operation is needed to go after illegal immigrant criminals in the Twin Cities area amid allegations of widespread fraud involving federal entitlement benefits.

Protests erupted after a Jan. 7 incident in which an ICE officer fatally shot a protester as she hit him with her car in an apparent attempt to flee.

Local Democrats, including Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have criticized Noem and ICE for the shooting and suggested that the federal government cease immigration operations in the city. Frey and Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) said in separate interviews on Jan. 11 that state authorities should be included in the shooting investigation because the federal government has already made clear what it believes happened.

“How can we trust the federal government to do an objective, unbiassed investigation, without prejudice, when at the beginning of that investigation they have already announced exactly what they saw—what they think happened,” Smith said on ABC’s “This Week.”

Frey told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Jan. 11 that local officials should be involved, saying: “Let’s have the investigation in the hands of someone that isn’t biased.”

The Trump administration has defended the officer who shot the protester in her car, saying that he was protecting himself and fellow agents. Video footage of the incident, which occurred in Minneapolis on Jan. 7, shows a woman in an SUV parked across the road and blocking traffic while honking her horn. Another video shows officers telling the woman to get out of the vehicle. She then lurches the vehicle forward, hitting an officer, in an apparent attempt to drive off, and he fires his gun, hitting her.

In response, Noem wrote on Jan. 11 an accompanying post on X that what happened in Minneapolis was a “domestic terror attack” targeting ICE agents and a “direct consequence of sanctuary politicians, like Tim Walz and Jacob Frey, who constantly demonize and vilify our brave officers.” She included video footage of similar comments to CNN.

“Sanctuary politicians are allowing situations around the country to become volatile, they’re not doing their jobs, and they haven’t for years,” Noem said. “In the interest of public safety I would encourage them to grow up.”

Noem and DHS have said that attacks on ICE agents have increased by 1,300 percent, with vehicular attacks increasing by 3,200 percent, on a year-over-year basis. In October 2025, a man armed with a rifle killed two ICE detainees at a federal office in Texas before shooting and killing himself.

The officer involved in the Minneapolis shooting was doxxed by people online and has been receiving death threats, according to White House border czar Tom Homan, who said in a Jan. 10 interview that the threats have extended to his family members.

Anti-ICE demonstrations erupted on Jan. 9 as a demonstration turned into a riot, with people throwing rocks, ice, and other objects at federal officers. Thousands of people marched in Minneapolis on Jan. 10 in response to the shooting.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 12:25

Google & AI Startup Settle Teen Suicide Chatbot Lawsuits

Google and artificial-intelligence chatbot startup Character.AI have agreed to settle a wave of lawsuits brought by grieving parents who claim AI chatbots emotionally manipulated - and ultimately destroyed -their children.

Megan Garcia with her son Sewell Setzer III. Photograph: Megan Garcia/AP

Court documents filed this week show the companies have reached settlement agreements in cases from Florida, Colorado, New York, and Texas, all alleging that Character.AI’s chatbots harmed minors through sexually charged conversations, emotional dependency, and encouragement of self-harm. The specific terms of the settlements remain secret and must still be approved by federal judges, ABC News reports.

The Florida case, the first and most explosive of the lawsuits, centered on the death of 14-year-old Sewell Setzer III, who killed himself in February 2024. His mother, Megan Garcia, alleged that her son was pulled into what she described as an emotionally and sexually abusive relationship with a Character.AI chatbot.

According to the lawsuit, the chatbot was modeled after a fictional character from HBO’s hit series Game of Thrones - and over time, the teen became increasingly detached from reality, isolating himself from family and friends while spending hours interacting with the AI.

In the final moments of his life, screenshots included in the lawsuit show the chatbot telling the boy it loved him and urging him to “come home to me as soon as possible.”

Garcia’s lawsuit accused Character.AI of deliberately designing bots that blurred the line between fantasy and reality, exploiting a child’s vulnerability for engagement and profit. A federal judge rejected the company’s attempt to dismiss the case on First Amendment grounds - a key ruling that opened the door to similar lawsuits nationwide.

Those lawsuits soon followed.

Families in multiple states filed complaints alleging that Character.AI chatbots normalized self-harm, encouraged suicidal thinking, and fostered emotional dependency in children who lacked the maturity to understand they were interacting with a machine.

Google was named as a defendant because of its deep ties to Character Technologies, which intensified after the tech giant rehired Character.AI’s co-founders in 2024 and entered into an AI partnership that critics say gave the startup credibility, infrastructure, and reach.

While Google has maintained that it does not operate Character.AI’s platform, plaintiffs argue the company played a critical role in enabling the technology that allegedly harmed their children.

The settlements arrive amid broader legal pressure on the AI industry, including lawsuits against OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, over claims that its technology has encouraged self-harm or failed to intervene appropriately during mental-health crises.

In response to the growing backlash, Character.AI has rolled out new safety measures, including age restrictions and content moderation tools. But for families who say the damage has already been done, the changes come too late.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 12:05

Apple Selects Google's Gemini To Power AI Siri

Apple shares moved up 1% in the morning U.S. cash session after CNBC reported that Apple will partner with rival Google to power key artificial intelligence features, including Siri, later this year.

In a statement cited by CNBC's Jim Cramer, Apple said it selected Google after a competitive review, calling Gemini "the most capable foundation" to support its AI roadmap and unlock new user experiences.

"After careful evaluation, we determined that Google's technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models, and we're excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for our users," Apple wrote.

We previously reported that Apple was tapping Google's Gemini model to overhaul Siri. This development is particularly alarming for Apple, as it shows how heavily the company relies on external AI technology.

The Apple-Google partnership has made Wedbush's research team, led by Dan Ives, look like superstars this morning, as it was one of their top three predictions for 2026.

Dan Ives's top 3rd prediction for 2026 was just realized with the AAPL/GOOGL partnership https://t.co/mIBHmaQIcF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 12, 2026

View the rest of Ives' predictions here.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 10:46

DHS Blasts Anti-ICE Protesters Sharing List Of Hotels Allegedly Hosting Agents

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said on Jan. 11 that federal agents in Minnesota were put at risk after a list of their alleged hotel locations circulated online.

“Revealing their locations puts them at enormous risk of retaliation from these monsters,” DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin wrote in a statement to The Epoch Times.

Sunrise Twin Cities, a youth-led group against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations, is publishing a weekly list of hotels where they suspect that immigration agents are staying.

The Minneapolis-based group has spent weeks urging locals to hold “noise demonstrations” outside hotels, hoping that management will become fed up, kick out the agents, and cancel future reservations.

DHS would not confirm or deny the accuracy of the list.

“We would never confirm where our officers are staying and put their lives in jeopardy, that would be insane,” McLaughlin said.

McLaughlin said these lists of locations can be harmful, as officers face a surge of assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats, many of which have already been directed at the agent involved in a deadly altercation with a protester last week.

The hotel demonstration on Jan. 9, hosted by Sunrise Twin Cities, resulted in 30 people being detained after an unlawful assembly was declared outside the Canopy Hotel.

“I felt like I was in ‘The Purge,’” a Canopy Hotel staffer told The Epoch Times on Jan. 10.

A staffer from the Canopy Hotel told The Epoch Times that he felt like he was in a horror movie when anti-Immigration and Customs Enforcement protesters tried to barge into the building in Minneapolis on Jan. 9, 2026. Jacki Thrapp/The Epoch Times

The Canopy Hotel was up and running on Jan. 10 with seemingly no signs of damage inside or broken windows outside.

But that was not the case for the Renaissance Minneapolis Hotel, just a few blocks away from the Canopy Hotel.

The Renaissance Minneapolis Hotel had damage worth approximately $6,000 done to windows from graffiti on Jan. 9.

By the afternoon on Jan. 10, the graffiti was removed, and fencing and “no trespassing” signs were scattered across the property and surrounding area.

Fences and “no trespassing” signs were placed outside the Renaissance Minneapolis Hotel in Minneapolis on Jan. 10, 2026. Jacki Thrapp/The Epoch Times

A large number of police officers were present both inside and outside of the hotel on the night of Jan. 10.

The hotel bar inside was also standing by to close early if another round of protesters decided to brave the 20-degree-Fahrenheit temperatures to hold additional noise demonstrations.

The anti-ICE hotel demonstrations—and repeated phone calls to front desks to demand that they cancel reservations from agents—also had an effect at a Hilton-affiliated hotel in the Minneapolis area.

“We have noticed an influx of GOV reservations made today that have been for DHS, and we are not allowing any ICE or immigration agents to stay at our property,” an email from a hotel employee shared by DHS in an X post on Jan. 5 reads.

“If you are with DHS or immigration, let us know as we will have to cancel your reservation.”

Protesters face off with federal officers in front of the Bishop Henry Whipple Federal Building in Minneapolis on Jan. 9, 2026. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

DHS slammed the cancellations.

“This is UNACCEPTABLE,” the department posted on X.

On Jan. 6, Hilton said it would sever its ties with the hotel. The Lakeville, Minnesota, hotel is now listed as “permanently closed” online.

Hilton did not respond by publication time to a request for comment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 10:35

Mamdani Hails Rat-Infested Bronx Slum As 'Model' For His Housing Agenda

Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor of New York on a slew of socialist promises marketed under the banner of affordability.

On his first day in office, he signed three executive orders to address the housing crisis. The first revives the Mayor’s Office to Protect Tenants, led by tenant advocate Cea Weaver, to coordinate agencies and crack down on abusive landlords. Another creates the LIFT task force to fast-track city-owned sites for housing, while the SPEED task force will cut red tape that delays construction. Days later, he picked 1520 Sedgwick Avenue in the Bronx’s Morris Heights to introduce Dina Levy as the new Housing Preservation and Development (HPD) commissioner. 

Back in 2011, Levy, who will now earn a $277,605 annual salary as Mamdani’s HPD commissioner, helped flip the 102-unit building from private ownership to the nonprofit Workforce Housing Advisors. Her group, Urban Homesteading Assistance Board, teamed with HPD on a $5.6 million city loan. 

Mamdani touted that move as a win. He told the crowd that Levy organized tenants against a predatory buyer. The building stayed affordable. "Dina will no longer be petitioning HPD from the outside," Mamdani said. "She will now be leading it from the inside, delivering the kind of change that can transform lives." He painted Levy as the perfect person to implement his affordable housing agenda, which leans heavily on replacing private landlords with nonprofits. 

But what Mamdani didn’t say at the event was that this model for his housing agenda is a rat-infested slum.

According to a report from the New York Post, the building “as of Saturday had a staggering 194 open housing-code violations dating back to 2016 - including 88 ‘Class C’ violations considered ‘immediately hazardous.’”

Records show that rat and roach infestation, broken doors and refrigerators, and mold were among those violations. 

Tenants of the building say conditions were better under the building’s former private landlord and that the property has steadily deteriorated since being turned over to a nonprofit. 

“I have been here over 20 years, and I preferred it when it was under private management because they used to screen people in and out of the building,” longtime tenant Mordistine Alexander told the paper. She has been in the building since 1999.

 Today, the building is plagued by chronic heat and hot-water issues, crumbling bathrooms and kitchens, broken windows, and months-long delays in basic repairs. She said she has been without a kitchen light for months and fixed a serious rodent problem herself because she “couldn’t wait any longer” for Workforce Housing Group to act. “Since [the nonprofit] took over, the building has deteriorated. They lack porters. No one is maintaining it, and the complaints fall on deaf ears – especially if you complain a lot,” Alexander said, adding she wishes Levy had never succeeded in transferring the building to nonprofit control. Despite these complaints, Mamdani is pushing for more buildings like the Sedgwick Avenue complex, backing communist policies that restrict private property sales to allow nonprofits to take over more rent-stabilized apartments.

"You have to laugh at the hypocrisy," Councilwoman Joann Ariola (R-Queens) said. "These nonprofits are proving themselves to be little more than taxpayer-funded slumlords, and this blatant double-standard is all part of the administration’s planned attack on private ownership in New York City." 

The Sedgwick Avenue site has more open HPD violations than roughly three-quarters of the privately owned, rent-stabilized buildings in NYC — but Mamdani is “too focused” on pushing the abolition of private property, said Kenny Burgos, a former Bronx assemblyman who heads the New York Apartment Association that represents landlords of rent-stabilized units.

Nonprofit-managed housing “consistently run higher violation counts despite having government-backed loans and [being eligible to avoid] paying property taxes, so they should have a lot more freed-up cash to make these buildings run efficiently, and yet are unable to do so - even with good intentions and no goal of profit,” added Burgos.

The New York City Department of Housing Preservation and Development defended the rat-infested slum and Levy’s involvement in the sale of the building to Workforce Housing Group.

“When the building was at risk of being purchased by a predatory buyer, Dina Levy organized alongside the tenants and kept the building affordable,” spokesman Matt Rauschenbach said. “And now the building is undergoing an $8 million preservation renovation to improve conditions and make sure it is a safe, affordable place for the tenants who live there to call home.” 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 10:25

Ayatollah Posts That 'Arrogant' Trump Will Be 'Overthrown' As Iran Protests Lose Steam

Update(10:15ET): Iran's Supreme Leader is really playing with fire here in posting the below image on X. While the message didn't appear on his English language account, it is on his Persian account, and thus mainly directed at the Ayatollah's own domestic population.

According to a machine translation, the message says: "That father figure who sits there with arrogance and pride, passing judgment on the entire world, he too should know that usually the tyrants and oppressors of the world, such as Pharaoh and Nimrod and Reza Khan and Mohammad Reza and the likes of them, when they were at the peak of their pride, were overthrown, This one too will be overthrown."

آن بابایی که با نخوت و غرور نشسته آنجا راجع به همه‌ی دنیا قضاوت میکند، او هم بداند که معمولاً‌ مستبدّین و مستکبران عالم، از قبیل فرعون و نمرود و رضاخان و محمّدرضا و امثال اینها، وقتی که در اوج غرور بودند سرنگون شدند،
این هم سرنگون خواهد شد.#مثل_فرعون pic.twitter.com/hxzJVQQOiL

— KHAMENEI.IR | فارسی (@Khamenei_fa) January 11, 2026

Khamenei perhaps suddenly feels more embolden to poke and mock Trump like this perhaps given the emerging widespread reports that the protests are losing steam, after weekend clashes with policy reportedly resulted in many deaths. There was definitely a major and deadly security crackdown, but this also as the government asserts that dozens of police and military have been attacked and killed, and buildings set on fire by 'rioters' and 'saboteurs'.

There are also very large pro-government 'counter protests' taking over whole areas of cities Monday, including in the capital:

WATCH: Large crowds gather for pro-regime rallies in Iranian cities in support of Khamenei. pic.twitter.com/9mTo5bbTJD

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 12, 2026

The Trump administration was quite out front with saying it would "stand" with the Iranian people, and even protect them if they come under assault from government forces. This allowed Iranian leadership to tell people in the streets that they are doing the bidding of foreign powers like the US and Israel.

This also amid more tough talk from Iran's parliament on Monday:

Iran’s parliament speaker has described the response to the protests as a fight with “terrorists” while addressing a large rally in the capital.

Iran is fighting a “four-front war”, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, listing economic, psychological and military engagement with the United States and Israel, and “today [is] a war against terrorists”.

“The great Iranian nation has never allowed the enemy to achieve its goals,” Ghalibaf said as supporters chanted, “Death to Israel, death to America.”

He pledged Iran’s military would teach Trump “an unforgettable lesson” in case of a new US attack, adding: “Come and see all your facilities in the region destroyed.”

Trump on Sunday did raise the question of direct help to the protesters (who may not actually be interested in Washington's help). Trump said he will speak to Elon Musk about sending Starlink to protesters in Iran, following the government-imposed outage which has remained in place since Thursday.

"We may get the internet going if that's possible," the president told reporters. Elon "is very good at that kind of thing. I'm going to call him as soon as I'm finished with you."

A video from three nights ago in #Iran shows rioters entering a mosque and attempting to burn carpets and #Quran. pic.twitter.com/YD4turTRHL

— iribnews | خبرگزاری صدا و سیما (@iribnews_irib) January 11, 2026

Is the rhetoric between Washington in Tehran softening as it becomes clear the regime is not under threat by the protests?

Iran says it is “prepared for war” but ready to negotiate with the US based on “mutual respect and interests,” after US President Donald Trump said Tehran called to negotiate as his administration weighs possible military intervention during widespread anti-government protests.

* * *

The NY Times and others are confirming that President Trump has recently been briefed on a series of new military strike options targeting Iran as he weighs whether to act on his threat to attack the country over its crackdown on protesters, which have also clearly themselves engaged in violent acts in some locales at times.

In some of among the well over 100 cities or towns where protests have raged since the end of December, buildings and even mosques have been burned, cars torched, and police officials reportedly shot and stabbed. Amid an internet blackout across the country, which has made accurate information hard to come by and/or verirfy, there is a battle of narratives and 'infowar' happening. 

AFP/Getty Images

Starlink terminals were said to be smuggled into the country during the 2022 wave of protests, and so there has been some limited information and videos emerging even amid the several consecutive days of internet shutdown by the government.

President Trump during Friday's meeting of oil executives again warned Iranian leadership not to kill protesters: "I've made the statement very strongly that if they start killing people like they have in the past, we will get involved," he said. "We’ll be hitting them very hard where it hurts. And that doesn’t mean boots on the ground, but it means hitting them very, very hard where it hurts."

Trump later narrowed the warning, "I tell the Iranian leaders: You better not start shooting, because we’ll start shooting, too."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio on top of that issued on X that "The United States supports the brave people of Iran" - something much vaguer and coupled with no specific threat.

From there, unverified reports throughout the weekend said that body bags from protest deaths were piling up. By last week, around 30 people were reported killed, including several or more among police and security officials. But by Sunday into Monday that figure ballooned.

Reuters and CNN have relied on a US-based group to claim, "More than 544 people have been killed over the past 15 days during anti-government demonstrations, including eight children, according to the Human Rights Activist New Agency (HRANA)."

IRAN: Anti-regime protests in Iran, where demonstrators torched the Al-Rasool Mosque in Tehran's Saadat Abad district. Over 300 similar attacks on religious sites nationwide this evening. pic.twitter.com/N68KoHATT1

— @amuse (@amuse) January 10, 2026

This new, high death count, is unverifiable but is still being widely circulated on Monday. It has been issued at a very sensitive and dangerous moment that the anti-Ayatollah opposition which largely lives in Europe and the United States is lobbying hard to get Trump's ear and attention.

All the usual other enemies of Tehran are being very active in this regard too, such as the powerful Israel lobby in the United States.

On the 'options' briefings, the NY Times has described that briefings President Trump has already received included a variety of potential actions such as strikes against nonmilitary locations in Tehran.

When reporters asked about preparations for possible military action, the White House pointed instead to the president’s recent public statements and posts on social media. "Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before," Trump had additionally stated on Truth Social on Saturday. "The USA stands ready to help!!!"

If Trump were to actually kick off yet more US military action in the Middle East, this time against a large nation like Iran which would hold the serious potential for escalating into a full-blown conflict, it would likely prove deeply unpopular among his base. Broadly, the American public would likely not be on board.

Evidence of a very bloody state clampdown is now starting to come out from people who either have managed to connect to Starlink or who have left Iran and brought videos with them.

But even Iranian State TV is reporting from the morgue, where a large number of body bags can be… pic.twitter.com/QcY2iPYyCp

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) January 11, 2026

A Goldman Sachs note highlights that the build-up rhetoric threatening US intervention in and of itself will have an impact on oil, gold, and across markets:

Attention shifts to Iran as we speak. Unlike the 2022 protests centered around social liberties, this episode looks to be triggered by economic paralysis with inflation spiking and the sudden collapse of the Iranian rial in late Dec. The protests have now turned violent with death toll rising to the hundreds. What can potentially add oil to fire is if foreign interference continues to get talked up with the US signaling the threat of a potential intervention. Oil and Gold creeping up as the Iranian unrests unfold. This illustrates our view of the insurance value of commodities. We see a strong role for broader commodity length in strategic portfolio allocations with increasing geopolitical, trade and AI competition has led to more frequent use of commodity dominance as leverage.

Iranian businesses have in many cased been forced to suspend all activity because of Iran's internet shutdown, especially those companies which are dealings or staff based abroad. The shutdown is said to be so severe that even the banking system isn't operating, and something as simple as removing money from an ATM can't be done.

BREAKING: Trump told reporters on Air Force One that Iran reached out to the U.S. yesterday and proposed holding talks on a nuclear deal. "We may meet them", he said

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) January 12, 2026

Leadership in Tehran might have made things much worse for itself with the decision to block internet access, given the protesting and rioting crowds hadn't dispersed, but instead clashes with police may have grown more intense and violent. Iran's foreign ministry has been cited in Bloomberg Monday as follows:

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says police and security forces brought protests "under control" from Saturday, according to statement to state TV. Araghchi: we have huge amount of evidence pointing direct Israeli and US interference in protests Says internet will be restored "soon after full control of security situation"

"Israel is directly responsible, and also Americans through their remarks by promoting violence," Araghchi says.

NOW - Trump says Iranian leaders called him yesterday and "they want to negotiate... a meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what's happening, before the meeting." pic.twitter.com/CF2DC6Pwbg

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 12, 2026

As for what's next, President Donald Trump will be briefed on Tuesday on "some kinetic and many non-kinetic" options in Iran, according to a couple of unnamed administration officials to Politico. But there have indeed been signs that the protests have begun to abate or in some places been halted completely.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 10:15

UK, Germany, France Push New Plan To Appease Trump On Greenland

President Trump's Friday's remarks to reporters Friday made clear he is willing to take control of Greenland - even if it's the "hard way" - and this sent the Europeans scrambling over the weekend to come up with plans or strategies for quickly de-escalating inter-NATO tensions.

"I'm not talking about money for Greenland yet. I might talk about that. But right now we are going to do something on Greenland, whether they like it or not," the President had said, adding: "I would like to make a deal. You know, the easy way. But if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way."

In the wake of this, NATO member Denmark responded firmly in the face of the US threat to its colony. Such a scenario as a US military move on Greenland would be the collapse of NATO, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has made clear. Among the remarks from last week, Frederiksen said, "If the United States were to choose to attack another NATO country, then everything would come to an end."

"The international community as we know it, democratic rules of the game, NATO, the world’s strongest defensive alliance – all of that would collapse if one NATO country chose to attack another," the Danish PM added. But he missed the irony in the fact that country after country that refused to play by the so-called "democratic rules of the game" got bombed or overthrown by NATO and the West - with Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Iran and others lying in ruins and societal fragmentation.

Warner: "We've had American intervention in Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Nigeria, Venezuela, maybe Greenland where he would blow up NATO. Did you see the Brits and Germans are putting troops in Greenland because they want to send a message. How is this leading to price stability,… pic.twitter.com/kLF5eWENJL

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) January 12, 2026

 But now, as Bloomberg reports, European countries are seeking to seize on Trump's talking points about Greenland being strategically crucial for Arctic security, as rival powers like Russia and China allegedly seek to move in.

"A group of European countries, led by the U.K. and Germany, is discussing plans for a military presence in Greenland to show U.S. President Donald Trump that the continent is serious about Arctic security and to try to tamp down American threats to take over the self-ruling Danish territory," reports Bloomberg.

So this seems all about creating a fresh NATO joint mission to appease Trump, soften the rhetoric, and take away one of his main geostrategic justifications for a Greenland takeover.

Bloomberg continues, "Germany will propose setting up a joint NATO mission to protect the Arctic region, according to people familiar with the plans."

This includes backing from Britain, with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer having separately called on allied nations to strengthen their security footprint in the far north. Pre-planning discussions have been held with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

AP/Sky News: Danish military forces participate in an exercise with NATO troops in Greenland.

The topic is likely to be broached when German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul meets with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week.

"Because security in the Arctic is becoming increasingly important, I also want to discuss on my trip how we can best bear this responsibility in NATO — in view of old and new rivalries in the region by Russia and China — together," Wadephul said in a statement Sunday. "We want to discuss this together in NATO."

It will be interesting to see whether the White House pursues this as an off-ramp, dropping the Greenland project, or whether Trump will read this as a ploy to co-opt forward momentum.

Selling a counter-plan based on running with the exaggerated threat and lie...

The US will defend Greenland from the US?
- Trump said that Russian and Chinese ships are around Greenland as an excuse for annexation. The Europeans know this is not true, but hope that Trump will believe his own lie to elevate the relevance of NATO? pic.twitter.com/XHr7pqSro6

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) January 12, 2026

Trump has said on outright seizing it, "If we don’t do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland. And we’re not going to have Russia or China as a neighbor." But there have also been other creative solutions offered - such as paying each Greenlander something like $1 million in exchange for US sovereignty over the mass which could be the size of a continent. 

Currently, each citizen of Greenland is a full citizen of Denmark and of the European Union, and so many locals might not want to swap this out for being an American. However, many would likely be very attracted to some kind of huge single sum payout.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 09:45

Fire Departments' New Emergency: Affording Their Trucks

Authored by Eric Salzman via Racket News,

When I was a kid, one of the coolest things was that every year, a few days before Christmas, our town’s fire department would drive through all the neighborhoods in its gleaming fire engine with the lights flashing, giving short bursts of the siren. All the firemen were in full gear hanging off the sides, while Santa, sitting at the top, threw candy canes to us all. The fire department was special, especially to the kids whose dads or uncles were volunteers.

Illustration by Daniel Medina

These days, that truck may not be as shiny as it once was, as there are many trucks in service that should have been retired or kept only as backups because of how prone to failure they are. That’s what happened in Camden, NJ, in March 2024. From NJ.com:

Camden Fire Capt. Will Johnson and his crew arrived within five minutes in Engine 8, a battle-scarred, 21-year-old truck. Flames roared from the second-floor windows as firefighters rushed in, spraying water to try to save Shawn, 35.

But then the hose went limp. The red-and-white truck’s pump had failed, according to incident reports. About two and a half minutes passed, Johnson estimates, before water was restored.

Shawn did not make it. The captain wrote in a report that “we could not advance quickly enough to suppress a bulk of the fire or have an adequate primary search done to locate the victim.”

We don’t know if Shawn would have lived if the pumper truck had worked. But a 21-year-old pumper truck should not be on the front lines of service. The National Fire Protection Association recommends that trucks older than 15 years be relegated to a station’s reserve fleet and completely removed after 25 years.

Los Angeles is a prime example of an aging fleet. The Los Angeles Times reports that as of last June, 60% of its 210 pumper trucks and 48% of its ladder trucks were operating beyond their recommended lifespans. During the Palisades fire, roughly 40 pumper trucks were in the shop; 70 percent of them were 15 years or older, including three built in I999.

“These aging and inoperable fire trucks have certainly harmed emergency responses and cost lives,” Edward Kelly, the president of the International Association of Fire Fighters union, said during a U.S. Senate hearing in September.

He cited an incident in Chicago last summer when a ladder on a reserve truck failed during a rescue. Firefighters had to restart the truck to raise the ladder. Four people died, including a five-year-old.

What the hell is going on?

Lack of competition, for one. Three manufacturers have emerged in the last two decades to control 70% to 80% of the market, according to a federal lawsuit filed by the town of Newstead, NY.

One of the companies, REV Group, was created by a private equity firm, American Industrial Partners (AIP). It got into the fire apparatus business in 2008 with the purchase of E-One, a huge player in the industry, and proceeded to purchase six more companies over the next 12 years. It’s been quite successful for investors. AIP launched an IPO for Rev Group in 2017 and sold a portion of its stake in the company for $275 million, and then got out completely in 2024 by selling its remaining shares for $127.6 million.

But before cashing out, AIP’s purchase of so many manufacturers enabled Rev Group to join the companies Oshkosh and Rosenbauer as dominant players in the industry. As a result, the lawsuit argues they gained near monopolistic pricing powers.

Kelly, the union president, says costs have doubled in the past decade. Pumper trucks cost about $1 million; ladder trucks roughly $2 million. To make matters worse, Kelly testified that the price often changes after they’re ordered.

Manufacturers wield their market power to impose surprise price hikes after order placement through “floating” price terms. These price hikes exacerbate other budget constraints. Fire departments with budget challenges have had to cancel essential training and even lay off fire fighters.

Awesome Returns Bro!

In 2025, REV Group’s stock price surged 93%, while Oshkosh rose 33%. Both companies outperformed the S&P 500, which increased 16.5% for the year.

In REV’s blowout third-quarter 2025 earnings call — a day in which its stock jumped 19% — CEO Mark Skanechnie stated:

Given the inventory levels we had on hand at the start of the quarter, along with the efforts of our supply chain team, we were able to mitigate a portion of the expected inflationary impacts related to tariffs within the third quarter, which resulted in delivering a 28% incremental margin year over year as compared to our prior guidance of twenty percent to 25% incremental margin for the 2025.

The increase [in incremental margin] versus last year was related to the continued demand for fire apparatus and ambulance units as well as pricing actions, partially offset by the benefit of the increased throughput mentioned earlier.

In other words, the floating price hikes weren’t completely tied to increased costs during production, which typically takes a year to 18 months, depending on the truck. A 28% incremental margin is generally considered outstanding for vehicle manufacturers.

Antitrust Complaints

The Newstead Fire Department filed its class action complaint on October 31 against REV Group, Oshkosh and Rosenbauer. From the complaint:

Beginning in or about January 2016, Manufacturing Defendants entered into an agreement, combination, or conspiracy to limit the supply, and to fix, raise, maintain, or stabilize prices of Fire Trucks sold in the United States at supra-competitive levels. As a result of the unlawful conduct of Defendants, Plaintiff and Class members paid artificially inflated prices for Fire Trucks and as a result have suffered antitrust injury in violation of the federal antitrust laws.

The result, the lawsuit argues, is inflated prices with long wait times that “have forced municipalities to keep older and less reliable Fire Trucks” or forced them to redirect funding to cover the higher costs.

This complaint came on the heels of a similar antitrust complaint that La Crosse, Wisconsin, filed in August against the three companies.

Rev Group, Oshkosh, and Rosenbauer told Reuters, “the company believes the suit is meritless and intends to challenge the allegations in court.”

Additionally, In April 2025 Senators Elizabeth Warren (D) and Senator Jim Banks (R) opened an investigation into this matter, making the following statement,

While CEOs and shareholders pad their pockets, consolidation in the industry impedes fire fighters’ ability to do their jobs safely and effectively, squeezes fire departments’ budgets, and forces taxpayers to bear the consequences. We have heard from dozens of fire departments in Massachusetts, Indiana, and elsewhere about difficulties they have faced related to serial roll-ups of fire truck manufacturers, including delivery delays, defective parts, and price increases… Private equity consolidation of fire truck manufacturers has led to higher costs and a nationwide shortage of fire trucks.

In response, Mike Virnig of The Rev Group told the New York Times that the industry has had a shortage in skilled labor and that it was affected by pandemic supply chain disruptions. The Times reports he also said a backlog resulted from a flood of orders that came with federal stimulus money.

Perhaps, but jacking up prices during production and bragging about a 28% incremental margin that resulted from doing that doesn’t instill confidence that everything is aboveboard. A year-over-year stock price increase of 93% probably does not represent a company struggling to meet its customers’ needs. It represents the market perception that REV Group has its customers over a very profitable barrel.

You can also listen to Eric Salzman discuss this topic on his podcast, “Monkey Business.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 09:25

Musk Says X's New Algorithm Will Be Open Source In 6 Days

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Elon Musk said on Jan. 10 that his X social media platform would open its new algorithm to the public within a week.

“We will make the new X algorithm, including all code used to determine what organic and advertising posts are recommended to users, open source in 7 days,” Musk wrote in a post on X on Jan. 10.

“This will be repeated every 4 weeks, with comprehensive developer notes, to help you understand what changed.”

Authorities in the UK and the European Union notified Musk’s X and xAI on Jan. 5 that its regulatory bodies were aware of reports alleging that X’s artificial intelligence chatbot Grok had been used to generate sexually explicit images, including images that appeared to depict minors.

European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier said that the EU is “very well aware of the fact that [Grok] is now offering a ‘spicy mode’ showing explicit sexual content with some output generated with childlike images.”

“This is not spicy. This is illegal. This is appalling. This is disgusting,” Regnier told reporters on Jan. 5

Musk had written in a post two days prior that “anyone using Grok to make illegal content will suffer the same consequences as if they upload illegal content.”

On Jan. 8, Regnier said a retention order the EU sent to X last year would be extended to the end of 2026. The order regarded the platform’s algorithms and the potential dissemination of illegal content.

The EU also fined X 120 million euros, or $140 million, last month, accusing the company of violating the bloc’s Digital Services Act transparency obligations. The fine was levied in relation to X’s “blue checkmark” subscription model, allegations of limited transparency regarding X’s ad repository, and the platform not giving researchers access to its public data.

French prosecutors in July 2025 launched a probe into X, citing alleged algorithm abuse and fraudulent data extraction by either the platform or its executives. The investigation followed a previous preliminary probe from January 2025 after the French government received complaints from a lawmaker and a senior French official about suspected foreign influence by X.

After French public institutions and researchers provided prosecutors with their findings from the preliminary probe, prosecutors asked police to investigate the company as “both a legal entity and through individual persons.”

Prosecutors called the alleged crimes “organised interference with the functioning of an automated data processing system” and “organised fraudulent extraction of data from an automated data processing system.”

X dismissed the probe as a “politically-motivated criminal investigation” in a post from its Global Government Affairs account on July 21, 2025.

“French authorities have requested access to X’s recommendation algorithm and real-time data about all user posts on the platform in order for several ‘experts’ to analyze the data and purportedly ’uncover the truth' about the operation of the X platform,” the company wrote at the time.

“The involvement of these individuals raises serious concerns about the impartiality, fairness, and political motivations of the investigation, to put it charitably. ... French authorities have classified X as an ‘organized gang’ for the purpose of the investigation.

“This characterization, which is usually reserved for drug cartels or mafia groups, enables the French police to deploy extensive investigative powers under French law, including wiretapping the personal devices of X employees.”

X stated that it “remains in the dark as to the specific allegations made against the platform.”

“However, based on what we know so far, X believes that this investigation is distorting French law in order to serve a political agenda and, ultimately, restrict free speech,” the social media platform stated.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 08:50

Stocks, Dollar Drop, Gold Jumps As Fed Probe, Iran Unrest Darken Mood

"Sell America" is back: US equity futures and other US assets - including the dollar - are lower (even as Europe and Asia rise) while precious metals surge to new record highs after the DOJ subpoenaed the Fed and launched a criminal probe into Jerome Powell; ongoing protests in Iran are also denting sentiment. As of 8:15am, S&P 500 contracts are lower by 0.5%, Nasdaq down 0.7%. In premarket trading, credit card stocks are down following President Trump’s late Friday remarks on rate caps. The attack on the Fed has been felt on the US yield curve, with 10- and 30-year yields higher by 3bps and 4bps, respectively. The dollar is down versus most major currencies - Bloomberg Dollar Index lower by 0.3%. Swiss franc outperforms on haven appeal, yen unable to benefit amid the prospect for Japanese elections. Precious metals hit further record highs; gold up 1.7%, silver higher by over 5%; the former stalled ahead of $4,600/oz. Brent crude faded upside triggered by supply concerns from Iran, lower by 0.8%. Bitcoin down 0.2%.  

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Apple +0.5%, Tesla -0.7%, Alphabet -0.7%, Microsoft -0.6%, Amazon -0.8%, Meta -0.8%, Nvidia -1%)

• Credit card companies and banks slide as President Donald Trump said credit-card lenders would be “in violation of the law” if the firms don’t cap interest rates at 10% for one year. Movers include American Express (AXP -4%), Capital One (COF -8%) and JPMorgan (JPM -2.5%).
• Precious metals and mining shares rally after the US threatened the Federal Reserve with a criminal indictment, undermining the dollar and sending gold and silver prices to record highs. Deadly protests in Iran and the possibility of a government overthrow also boosted demand for haven metals.
• Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) rises 4.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the infrastructure software company by two notches, to overweight.
• Albemarle Corp. (ALB) gains 3.9% after analysts raised their price targets on the lithium producer as metal prices rally.
• Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) rises 20% after the drugmaker reported preliminary sales for its Ojemda cancer drug in the fourth quarter that topped expectations. The company also gave revenue guidance for 2026 that came ahead of the average analyst estimate.
• Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) falls 5% after the burger chain reported preliminary revenue for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO) rises 4% after announcing some preliminary fourth quarter results.
• Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc. (SNCY) jumps 15% after Allegiant Travel agreed to buy the company in a $1.5 billion cash-and-stock transaction, further driving consolidation in the US airline industry amid intensifying competition.
• UnitedHealth (UNH) slips 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that a Senate committee investigating the company’s practices found that the health insurer deployed “aggressive tactics” to collect payment-boosting diagnoses for its Medicare Advantage members.

In other corporate news, shares in French biotech Abivax are surging amid speculation over a possible takeover. UBS said planned Swiss banking reforms are a threat to the national economy as pressure builds on the government to water down its proposals. Meta Platforms has shut down almost 550,000 accounts in Australia to comply with the country’s landmark social media ban for children. 

Stock futures and the dollar fell as investors trimmed exposure to US assets after the Trump administration significantly escalated its attacks on the Federal Reserve. Longer-dated yields surged while gold hit a new high. In a video message, Powell said the threat of a US criminal indictment — related to his congressional testimony on renovations at the Fed’s HQ — was because of disagreement over monetary policy. While Trump faced immediate bipartisan pushback from key Republican Thom Tillis, the development is fueling concerns over Fed autonomy. Bloomberg Economics’ 2025 modeling of a hit to Fed independence is a helpful read.

“Concerns about the Fed’s independence have really been reinforced with the latest criminal investigation,” Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said at a strategy conference in London. “Our expectation, though, is that this is a committee decision. I have no doubt that in his remaining term as chair, Powell is going to make decisions based on the economic data.”

Geopolitics is also adding to the cautious mood, with haven assets like gold and silver rising to records amid deadly protests in Iran over the weekend (the attack on the Fed doesn't help). Elsewhere, a group of European countries led by the UK and Germany is discussing plans for a military presence in Greenland.

Shares in banks stocks and credit card firms like American Express are sliding in premarket trading after Trump said lenders would be “in violation of the law” if the firms don’t cap interest rates at 10% for one year. Barclays Plc dropped as much as 4.8% in London, while Citigroup Inc., American Express Co. and Capital One Financial Corp. retreated in early US trading.  And the rally in US bank stocks will be tested this week when big Wall Street names report results. Top of mind will be consumer lending, with the data potentially clouded by the government shutdown. 

While JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America are expected to post slower revenue growth as trading gains ease from the elevated levels experienced in recent quarters, investment-banking fees are likely to remain robust following a wave of deals, with upbeat projections for 2026.

“US banks have performed pretty well during the past quarter, so I’ll be looking into whether this earnings season provides confirmation,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. “If that’s the case, the sector may actually become one of the drivers of this year.”

Goldman Sachs strategists expect S&P 500 companies to report fourth quarter year-over-year sales growth above the 6% consensus estimate. They also forecast 2026 EPS growth of 12% to $305, driven by sales growth of 7% alongside margin expansion of 70 bps. Economy-linked cyclical sectors are likely to outperform in 2026, driven by a supportive trade off between growth and inflation, according to JPMorgan strategists.

Citi strategists led by Beata Manthey expect diversification away from US stocks to continue this year, with European fiscal spending, reflation in Japan and widespread AI adoption supporting flows elsewhere. Today’s Taking Stock looks at positioning: Cash levels at asset managers are sending a sell signal while the general mood is pretty bullish. That may make the market prone to setbacks, but something would really need to break to trigger a proper drawdown.

Elsewhere, US consumers probably experienced a modest pickup in inflation in December, consistent with price pressures that are gradually abating. Core CPI is seen rising 2.7% in December from a year earlier, with economists expecting 0.3% increases in both overall and core prices on a monthly basis.

Stocks in Europe have a mild negative tilt, Stoxx 600 down 0.1%. IBEX 35 lags, down 0.2%, DAX continues to outperform regional peers, higher by 0.4%.  Miners outperform on elevated demand for havens, while travel and leisure stocks lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday: 

• Abivax shares surge as much as 31% to a record high as speculation mounts over a possible takeover of the French biotech.
• BE Semi shares rally as much as 9% after the chip equipment company reported preliminary orders of about €250m, beating analyst estimates amid a rapid rollout in AI data centers.
• Fresnillo shares climb as much as 7.1%, leading a rally in precious metals miners after gold and silver hit record highs as concerns over independence of the US Federal Reserve and protests in Iran drive demand for havens.
• Oxford Nanopore shares rise as much as 10%, the most in more than two months, after the British DNA-sequencing company said it expects to report 2025 revenue growth slightly ahead of guidance.
• BAE Systems shares rise as much as 3.1% to a record high as defense stocks rally on continuing Greenland tensions.
• Barclays shares fall as much as 4.8%, the most since October, as the bank is seen as exposed to President Donald Trump’s demand to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year.
• Heineken shares drop as much as 3.9%, the most since July, after the brewer said CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board Dolf Van den Brink would step down at the end of May.
• Impax Asset Management shares fall as much as 3.6% after the investment firm reported £1.6 billion net outflows for the quarter ended December 31, 2025.
• British Land shares fall as much as 3.3% as the commercial property group announces CEO Simon Carter is to step down to become CEO of P3 Logistics Parks, according to a statement.

Asian stocks rose as a rally in the region’s tech shares and a weaker US dollar boosted sentiment, helping offset broader concerns over rising geopolitical tensions. The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index rose as much as 0.8%, poised to snap a three-day losing streak. Alibaba, Tencent and TSMC provided the biggest boosts to the gauge. Most markets were in the green, with Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks and indexes in Taiwan and South Korea among key gainers. Japan was shut for a holiday. South Korea’s tech-heavy market extended its new-year rally, with the Kospi rising for a seventh session to a fresh record. It has been up in every session so far in 2026 and is less than 10% away from a much-touted 5,000 level.

In FX, the dollar is down versus most major currencies - Bloomberg Dollar Index lower by 0.3%. Swiss franc outperforms on haven appeal, yen unable to benefit amid the prospect for Japanese elections.

In rates, treasuries hold losses in early US trading led by long-end tenors ahead of an accelerated and compressed auction calendar that includes 3- and 10-year note sales Monday and a 30-year bond reopening Tuesday. Risk to Fed independence is a factor after Chair Powell’s response to Sunday’s revelation of a federal criminal investigation.US yields are 1bp-4bp cheaper on the day with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads both wider by more than 2bp. European debt is steadier, German 10 year yield down 1bps, UK up 1bps. US 10-year near 4.2% trails bunds and gilts in the sector by 4bp and 2bp.  Monday’s Treasury auctions are $58 billion 3-year new issue at 11:30am and $39 billion 10-year reopening at 1pm; WI 3-year yield near 3.61% is less than 1bp richer than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.8bp; WI 10-year near 4.2% is 2.5bp cheaper than December’s result.IG credit new-issue calendar has begun to build; around $60 billion of supply is expected this week, following last week’s $90.2 billion haul, the fourth largest on record. 

In commodities, precious metals hit further record highs; gold up 1.7% above 4600, silver higher by over 5% as repeated attacks on the Fed were a major factor aiding gold and silver in 2025, and that driver looks set to persist. Brent crude faded upside triggered by supply concerns from Iran, lower by 0.8%. Bitcoin down 0.2%.  

“All the reasons that pushed it higher last year are still relevant this year, even more so given what we’re seeing on the geopolitical side,” said Peter Kinsella, head of foreign-currency strategy at Union Bancaire Privee SA. “A question I’m often asked is, ‘is it too late to buy gold?’ My answer is a resolute ‘no.’”

The US economic calendar is empty Monday,  while ahead this week we gett CPI, PPI and retail sales data. Scheduled Fed speakers include Bostic (12:30pm), Barkin (12:45pm) and Williams (6pm). Five Below is expected to issue December sales before the market opens. JPMorgan Healthcare conference begins in San Francisco with Johnson & Johnson, Medtronic, Biogen and Pfizer among many companies presenting. Investors will also watch the Supreme Court’s next opinion day on Wednesday for a possible ruling on Trump’s tariffs. New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are set to speak on Monday.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.6%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.9%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• DAX +0.1%
• CAC 40 -0.3%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.2%
• VIX +1.9 points at 16.4
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1208.95
• euro +0.4% at $1.1678
• WTI crude -0.6% at $58.76/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Jerome Powell said the Fed was served grand jury subpoenas threatening criminal charges over his testimony on renovations at the central bank’s headquarters. He said the move was part of the administration’s “ongoing pressure” on interest rates. Republican Senator Thom Tillis vowed to oppose any Fed nominees until the matter is resolved. Donald Trump told NBC he had no knowledge of the DOJ’s investigation. BBG
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday said the goal of the Trump administration's launch of mortgage-backed securities purchases is to roughly match the rate at which those bonds are rolling off the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. RTRS
• Credit card and bank shares fell premarket after Trump doubled down on a demand that issuers lower rates to 10% by Jan. 20 and keep them there for a year. Capital One was down nearly 9%. BBG
• China overtook the US in investing abroad in the first half of 2025, signaling a historic shift in global capital flows. BBG
• A group of countries led by the UK and Germany is discussing plans for a military presence on Greenland to appease Trump and show that Europe is committed to Arctic security, people familiar said. BBG
• President Trump is scheduled to be briefed Tuesday on options to respond to the protests in Iran, according to U.S. officials, a sign the president is considering reprimanding the regime for its crackdown on demonstrators as he has repeatedly threatened. WSJ
• Iran warns it will hit American bases in the Middle East if the Pentagon launches strikes, along with Israel and regional shipping lanes. WSJ
• Israel and Hamas are preparing for renewed fighting as the Palestinian militant group is refusing to disarm, a requirement that is holding up progress on President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza. Israel’s military has drawn up plans for a new ground operation inside Hamas-controlled territory in Gaza. WSJ
•  
• Exxon CEO Darren Woods offered the starkest assessment, telling Trump in the live-streamed meeting in the East Room that Venezuela is “uninvestable” under current conditions. He said major changes were needed before his company would return to the country, and that big questions remain about what return Exxon could expect from any investments. Politico
• Trump said he might block Exxon from drilling in Venezuela following comments by the Co.'s CEO: WSJ. 
• Judge grants US FTC request to block Edwards Lifesciences Corp's (EW) acquisition of JenaValve Technology Inc, via court records.

Trade/Tariffs

• India announces plans to conclude FTA with the EU during visit to the EU next week.
• EU Commission issues Guidance Document on submission of price undertaking offers for battery electric vehicles from China. "It covers various aspects to be addressed in a possible undertaking offer, including the minimum import price, sales channels, cross-compensation, and future investments in the EU.".
• China's Commerce Minister said the EU will release guidance document on submitting price commitment application, in regard to talks with EU on EV. EU will assess every price commitment application based on WTO rules.
• India's Trade Minister said they are in the 'final' stages, in regards to trade deal with Europe.
• China is resuming its soybean auctions after a three-week pause to free storage while continuing US purchases under the trade truce.
• The US is to host a meeting on rare earths this week, according to Bloomberg.

Central Banks

• Federal prosecutors have opened up a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project, NYT reported citing officials.
• Fed Chair Powell said DoJ served the Fed with subpoenas, threatening indictment; Powell said he will continue to do the job. Fed Chairman Powell said the Department of Justice is threatening a criminal indictment against him. The Fed Chairman said it is about his testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee last June, but called this a pretext. The Fed Chairman thinks this is really about interest rates saying, "The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.".
• US President Trump denies involvement in the DoJ's issuance of federal subpoena to the Fed; issued subpoenas unrelated to interest rates.
• US Senator Tillis criticises the move against Fed Chair Powell, and said he will “oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed—including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy—until this legal matter is resolved.
• Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver 25bps cuts in June and September (vs. prior forecast of cuts in March and June).
• ECB's Muller said there's no reason to ease further in the near term and that rates have been in the right place for some time. Rates, however, could edge higher in a few years.
• ECB's de Guindos said the USD is not behaving as a haven, at this point.
• ECB Bulletin: "Inside the food basket: what is behind recent food inflation?"; "Looking ahead, food inflation is expected to ease further, supported in the near term by easing selling price expectations".
• Former PBoC Director of Statistics and Analysis Department Songcheng expects the central bank to take "small steps" toward monetary easing in the near future, Shanghai Securities News reported citing a speech.
• SARB is reportedly working on a review of its Prime Lending Rate, via Bloomberg. This has historically been fixed at the policy rate +350bps.

A more detailed look a global markets courtesy  of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the green, following on from the positivity seen stateside during Friday's session. Japanese traders were away today amid a domestic holiday. ASX 200 saw gains of as much as 0.7% as the APAC session got underway but pared back slightly as XAU pulled back from new record highs. Despite spot XAU pulling back, gold miners outperformed, followed by consumer discretionary and energy. KOSPI was the Asian outperformer, with gains as much as 1.5% but the index completely reversed the move alongside further losses in tech-laden NQ. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the regional gains, although upside was capped amid a lack of major drivers for the bourses.

Top Asian News

• China Vanke (2202 HK) dollar bondholders have been advised to consider calling a default on the Cos noted, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
• China's MOFCOM says its key priorities are to strengthen legal frameworks, improve export controls, and enhance risk prevention to safeguard supply chain resilience and national security.

European equities (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are trading mostly on the backfoot, in contrast to a mostly stronger APAC session. Sentiment appears to be subdued by Fed independence woes, after Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Chair Powell. European sectors are mixed. Leading sectors are Basic Resources (+0.6%), Food Beverage and Tobacco (+0.3%) and Retail (+0.3%). Basic Resources has been underpinned by stronger metal prices. On the downside, Autos (-0.9%), Banks (-0.9%) and Travel (-1.4%) lag, with the banking sector pressured by Trump’s credit card fee cap plan.

Top European News

• EU Sentix Index (Jan) -1.8 vs. Exp. -4.9 (Prev. -6.2)
• Swiss Consumer Confidence (Dec) -31 vs. Exp. -33 (Prev. -34).

FX

• DXY is under pressure this morning as Fed independence takes the limelight once again. Currently trading at the lower end of a 98.70-99.24 range, and just shy of its 200 DMA at 98.82. Further pressure for the index could see a test of its 100 DMA at 98.62.
• Downside for the USD this morning can be attributed to Fed independence woes. In brief, Federal prosecutors have opened up a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters. As it stands, markets appear to be running with the “sell America” theme, with the USD & US equity futures lower and the curve steeper. The USD may also be pressured thanks to the affordability implications of Trump’s demand for credit card rates to be capped at 10%.
• JPY remains the only currency flat vs the USD, with USD/JPY currently trading within a 157.90 to 158.20 range. The JPY was pressured overnight amidst further reporting of PM Takaichi planning to dissolve the Lower House – as a reminder, this was first reported last Friday which spurred hefty upside in USD/JPY. Since, price action has stabilised with USD/JPY gradually moving back towards overnight troughs as the risk tone remains subdued.
• Other G10s are stronger against the USD to varying degrees. The Antipodeans are amongst the top performers, benefiting from the strength seen across the metals complex. The CHF appears to be the favoured haven this morning, and currently sits second in the G10 leaderboard.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks in proximity to the unchanged mark.
• Overnight, while modest, the bias was downward as the US yield curve steepens over Fed independence concerns and the narrative that a more dovish Fed now could lead to higher inflation and, by extension, higher rates further down the line.
• USTs at the low-end of a 112-02 to 112-11 band, posting losses of five ticks at most. Support resides at 111-31 from Friday, below that we look to 111-26 from late-August. By extension, the 10yr yield is at a 4.2% peak, just shy of last Friday's 4.21% high. Thereafter, we return to levels from early-September/late-August when 4.35% printed (18th Aug.).
• In Europe, action is much the same. Bunds were unchanged for much of the session, but now incrementally firmer in 127.82 to 128.10 parameters. Elsewhere, Gilts opened near-enough unchanged before coming under modest pressure, echoing the above. At the low-end of a 92.30-53 band with downside of 18 ticks at most.
• OATs await Wednesday's no-confidence motions against the French government re. Mercosur. On Wednesday, January 14th, two no-confidence motions will be placed against the government, one from the far-left (LFI) and another from the far-right (RN). Neither motion is expected to succeed, as LFI will not support RN and the Socialists (PS) will not support LFI. However, Politico has a line from a centrist official noting that "there could be an accident". Amidst this, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread remains just above the 71bps mark and at the top-end of the 69-72bps 2026 range. OATs themselves trade in line with fixed income peers, as the updates around Fed Chair Powell dominate, and as such are near enough flat.

Commodities

• A softer start to the week for crude benchmarks, under modest pressure of c. 0.50/bbl at most to lows of USD 58.64/bbl and USD 62.89/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively. Benchmarks spent APAC trade chopping in relatively wide bands in excess of USD 1.00/bbl. The complex began APAC firmer, peaking at USD 59.80/bbl and USD 64.00/bbl. Upside driven by increased geopolitical tensions, particularly relating to Iran. However, despite the escalatory remarks from POTUS that Iran is beginning to cross the line, the benchmarks failed to sustain early gains. Thereafter, they came under modest but notable pressure and slipped into the red.
• Spot gold opened on a slightly firmer footing, made a trough at USD 4,511.41/oz before gradually sauntering higher as the APAC session got underway. Thereafter, the yellow-metal surged beyond the USD 4.6k/oz mark, to make a fresh ATH at USD 4,601.19/oz. Since, spot gold has scaled back below USD 4.6k/oz, albeit it remains within a handful of dollars of that mark. Price action during European trade has been sideways.
• Upside for the yellow metal can be attributed to two points, which have attracted haven inflows. 1) Fed independence woes, and 2) heightened geopolitical tensions. Starting with the Fed, US Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters, and whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project, NYT reported, citing officials. This has raised concerns among traders regarding the Fed's independence, given Trump's continued attempts to threaten Chair Powell's job.
• Base metals have followed the metals sentiment, with 3M LME Copper currently higher by around +1.7% and towards the upper end of a USD 13,086-13,233/t range. In Shanghai, tin hit its daily limit, rising 8% to CNY 376,920/ton to set a new ATH.
• Kazakhstan oil shipments from the Black Sea CPC terminal halted on Saturday, Bloomberg reported citing sources, this caused crude intake into the pipeline system to stop.
• Hunan Silver has restarted production on 12th January, following the completion of its maintenance plans.
• Australian Resources Minister King said Australia is to have an operational critical minerals reserve by year-end.
• Trafigura CEO expects to load first vessel for Venezuelan oil exports to the US next week.
• China buys at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans for April-May shipment, according to traders.

Geopolitics: Ukraine 

• Ukraine President Zelensky said US President Trump should enter a free trade deal with Ukraine.
• Over the weekend, Ukraine targeted three drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea owned by Lukoil. Elsewhere, Russian troops struck a Ukrainian military-industrial and energy facilities, according to TASS.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump said Iran has proposed negotiations after US leader threatened action on Tehran for crackdown on protesters, AP News reported.
• US President Trump said the military is considering very strong options on Iran.
• An increase in the number of US planes near Iranian airspace, according to Israel's Channel 14.
• US President Trump said Iran called to negotiate yesterday on nuclear, we may meet them.
• US President Trump said Iran has proposed negotiations after US leader threatened action on Tehran for crackdown on protesters, AP News reported.
• US President Trump said Iran called to negotiate yesterday on nuclear, we may meet them.
• An increase in the number of US planes near Iranian airspace, according to Israel's Channel 14.
• US President Trump said "Iran is starting to cross it [Trump's red line]".
• US President Trump said the military is considering very strong options on Iran.
• Iran, in letter to UN, said US is to blame for the transformation of peaceful process into violent subversive acts and widespread vandalism.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said communication with the US Special Envoy is open. Adds, they are ready to negotiate on the basis of mutual respect.
• US President Trump said in contact with Iranian opposition leaders.

Geopolitics: Other

• German Finance Minister Klingbeil said the transatlantic relationship "is disintegrating", Die Zeit reported. Adds, We must further strengthen Europe, and we must do so much faster. The current pace is inadequate. European sovereignty now has top priority".
• State Department Spokesperson said US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Mexican Foreign Secretary de la Fuente today about the need for stronger cooperation against narcoterrorists and trafficking of fentanyl and weapons.
• US President Trump posted a picture in which he is labelled "Acting President of Venezuela", via Truth Social.
• US President Trump said we are going to have Greenland, one way or another. We are talking about acquiring, not having short-term.
• US President Trump said working well with Venezuela's leadership. Meeting with Machado is on Tuesday or Wednesday.
• Trump administration officials are set to meet with Danish officials about Greenland on Wednesday, diplomatic sources tell CBS News. Multiple European diplomats said that they increasingly understand that America's commitment to the defence of Europe and NATO is no longer as ironclad as it has been over the past decades.
• Trump administration officials are set to meet with Danish officials about Greenland on Wednesday, diplomatic sources tell CBS News. Multiple European diplomats said that they increasingly understand that America's commitment to the defence of Europe and NATO is no longer as ironclad as it has been over the past decades.
• North Korea accused South Korea of provocation via a drone, via local press.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim  Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s hard to believe that we’ve only had one full week so far this year. A lot seems to have happened in a short space of time. For this week, the highlight will be the US CPI report for December and the start of US earnings season, both tomorrow. We may also get a ruling on the IEEPA tariffs from the Supreme Court (possibly Wednesday as that’s when the next “opinion day” from the Court arrives), and a meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Danish and Greenland officials at some point this week. Also keep an eye on events in Iran where the nationwide anti-government protests that started on December 28th have become more violent with the US and Israel keeping a very close watch. We might also hear news of a snap Japanese election in the lower house, although with the next Parliamentary session starting on January 23rd we may have to wait for then on any official announcement. If that's not enough, last night Fed Chair Powell disclosed that the Department of Justice issued a subpoena to the central bank on Friday, signaling the potential for a criminal indictment. In a video statement he stated that the threatened indictment pertains to his June testimony before the Senate regarding the renovation of Federal Reserve office buildings. He made it clear that he views the move as one aimed at influencing Fed independence. So remarkable stuff and all in all plenty of opportunities for big headlines over the coming days.  

Turning to the week’s main data now, Tuesday’s December CPI report will capture most of the limelight. Our expectations are for this data to come in on the stronger side, unwinding some of the distortions induced by the government shutdown. Specifically, DB are looking for a 0.36% gain in headline CPI which would keep the year-over-year rate roughly unchanged (2.75% vs. 2.74%). As to core, DB expect a 0.35% gain (just barely rounding down to 0.3%), which would have the year-over-year rate increase by a rounded up two-tenths (2.77% vs. 2.63%).

Wednesday brings producer prices, covering October and November, forecast at +0.1% month-on-month for both months, and retail sales, expected to rebound by +0.4% after being flat in the prior month. For PPI, the read through for the categories that feed directly into core PCE will as ever be the most important part of the release.

The week closes with industrial production on Friday, pencilled in at +0.1%, signalling only incremental improvement in manufacturing output. The Fed’s Beige Book, also due Wednesday, will offer qualitative insights into demand, labour conditions, and pricing trends across districts, complementing the hard data. For the rest of the US data see the global day-by-day week ahead at the end as usual.  

Beyond the US numbers, policy signals will be abundant. A roster of Fed officials—including Bostic, Barkin, Williams, Musalem, Kashkari, and Jefferson—are scheduled to speak throughout the week, providing markets with nuanced views on the balance of risks and the timing of potential rate adjustments. These remarks will be parsed against the backdrop of last week’s employment report, which showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 4.375%, with November’s reading revised down a tenth to 4.5%. This occurred alongside other decent employment data last week with a firmer quits rate, decent claims, and low Challenger layoff data. While these developments ease fears of a sharp labour market deterioration, payroll growth remains narrow and subdued. Headline payrolls were in line with DB expectation of 50k (consensus 70k) and private payrolls were only slightly below our expectations at 37k (consensus 75k), but after -76k of downward revisions to the prior two months, average monthly private payroll gains over the past three and six months are only 29k and 43k, respectively.

In terms of US earnings season, the major banks will lead the charge. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, and Delta Air Lines report first tomorrow, followed by Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo on Wednesday, and Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock on Thursday, alongside TSMC for a global tech angle. Our equity strategists anticipate S&P 500 earnings growth rising to 15% year-on-year in Q4, up from 14% in Q3, implying average beats of 5.5% versus consensus, slightly above the historical norm of 4.9%. See their preview here.

Away from the US, Europe faces a lighter calendar, though Thursday’s UK November GDP will be closely watched for signs of stabilisation amid a soft recent growth narrative. Denmark’s December CPI today adds to the recent regional inflation picture, while the euro area releases industrial production and trade balance on Thursday. ECB speakers, including Guindos and Villeroy, will punctuate the discussion with policy nuance, complemented by Thursday’s Economic Bulletin.

In Asia, attention turns to China’s December trade balance on Wednesday, where exports are expected to slow to +4% year-on-year from +6%, reflecting softer global goods demand and ongoing electronics cycle normalisation. Japan’s data flow includes producer prices and machine too orders (Wednesday), seen unchanged at +2.7%, alongside the Economy Watchers survey (tomorrow). These releases will help shape expectations for BoJ policy calibration as the debate over normalisation continues. On Friday we saw widespread speculation that PM Takaichi may soon call snap lower house elections to capitalise on 70% approval ratings and try to boost its slim majority. This could put an election in early to mid February if called by the time parliament starts sitting on January 23rd. Given her expansive fiscal program it probably wasn’t a surprise to see the Yen hit a one-year intra-day low on Friday. It's a holiday in Japan today so markets are closed but Nikkei equity futures are up +3.1% so it's clear how markets view this but watch out for JGB yields in the days ahead. Bond futures are testing multi year lows again this morning.

Asian equity markets are opening the week higher even with S&P (-0.66%) and Nasdaq (-0.99%) futures lower on the Fed indictment story. The Hang Seng (+0.86%) is being driven by gains in the technology sector, alongside the Shanghai Composite (+0.83%) and the KOSPI (+0.30%).
Recapping last week now and markets started their first full week of 2026 in buoyant mood despite geopolitical developments, including Maduro’s removal and new US pressure around Greenland. The S&P 500 climbed +1.57% (+0.65% Friday) to a new all-time high, while the NASDAQ moved +1.88% higher (+0.81% Friday). There were a few notable sectoral stories. Oil services majors SLB (+12.44%) and Halliburton (+10.24%) led the gains for the S&P 500 energy sector (+2.13%) on the week following the Venezuela news and ensuing uptick in oil prices. Meanwhile, the S&P Aerospace & Defense index surged +10.56% amid the geopolitical volatility and President Trump’s proposal to increase the military budget to $1.5 trillion in 2027. More broadly, non-tech cyclical stocks outperformed, with the small cap Russell 2000 up +4.62% (+0.78% Friday), also supported by solid US data.   

While the ISM manufacturing index, which came in at a 14-month low of 47.9 (vs. 48.4 expected), pointed to a weak manufacturing sector, more domestic-oriented data was more positive, as the services ISM hit a 14-month high of 54.4 (vs. 52.2 expected). The US labour market data was mixed but apart from a slightly disappointing payrolls print generally showed no alarms. That led pricing of a January Fed rate cut to decline to just 5%, with the amount of cuts priced by December falling to 52bps (-5.7bps on the week and -4.4bps Friday). This drove a significant flattening in Treasuries, with the 2yr yield rising +5.9bps to 3.53% (+4.4bps Friday), while the 10yr yield fell -2.6bps to 4.17% (-0.2bps Friday).

In Europe, softer-than-expected December CPI prints and PMI releases led investors to consider that the ECB might yet cut rates again this year. Sovereign bonds rallied, with 10yr bund yields down -3.7bps to 2.86%, with OATs (-8.8bps) and BTPs (-11.8bps) outperforming amid the risk-on mood. Gilts saw an even better performance, with the 2yr yield down -9.0bps and the 10yr yield -16.2bps to 4.37%. Equity markets put in a strong performance, helped by defence companies such as Rheinmetall (+18.60%) and BAE (+17.05%), with the STOXX 600 +2.27% (+0.97% Friday), the DAX +2.94% (+0.53% Friday), the FTSE 100 +1.74% (+0.80% Friday) all hitting new record highs. Credit also rallied, with EUR IG (-2bps) and HY (-13bps) credit spreads slightly outperforming their US counterparts (-1bps and -11bps respectively).

In commodities, precious metals continued to rally on the back of heightened geopolitical stress, with gold up +4.09% to above $4,500/oz, and silver +9.67% higher at $79.86/oz. Oil experienced high volatility, with Brent crude initially falling below $60/bbl due to more optimistic output expectations after Maduro’s removal. However, by Friday it had rebounded to $63.34/bbl (+4.26% on the week), including a +2.18% rise on Friday as Trump’s meeting with oil executives delivered no new investment promises for future Venezuelan production.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/12/2026 - 08:39