When Government Subsidies Stopped, Doritos Got 15% Cheaper

Authored by James Hickman via SchiffSovereign.com,

PepsiCo spent $2.8 million last year lobbying to keep junk food eligible for food stamps.

But last week - after Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. got 18 states to ban SNAP purchases of products like soda, candy, and processed snacks - PepsiCo announced price cuts of up to 15% on Doritos, Lay’s, Tostitos, and other Frito-Lay products.

The company’s official explanation was “affordability.” CEO Ramon Laguarta cited low-income consumers are switching to store brands.

But the timing tells the real story.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program— food stamps— is a $100 billion per year program serving roughly 42 million Americans. And according to the USDA’s own data, about 20 cents of every SNAP dollar goes to sweetened beverages, candy, salty snacks, and sugar.

In fact soft drinks alone are the single largest category of SNAP purchases.

And, until last week, products from Pepsi’s Frito-Lay division were in 7.2% of all shopping trips paid for with SNAP (i.e. taxpayer-funded) benefits.

So when the government stopped subsidizing demand for their products, PepsiCo had to do something they hadn’t needed to do in years: compete.

This is what the free market does— it forces companies to be more efficient, cut prices, and pass savings on to their customers.

But here’s the thing— this is one company, one product line, one government program.

Zoom out and you can see just how much of price inflation in our daily lives is due directly to government spending— before we even get into monetary policy like printing money.

When a guaranteed buyer shows up with a bottomless wallet, prices go up.

Just look at college tuition. In 1965, Congress passed the Higher Education Act and began backing student loans with federal dollars.

Since then, tuition has risen roughly three times faster than inflation. A year at a private university that cost $2,800 in 1963 now costs over $85,000.

The New York Federal Reserve studied this directly and found that for every dollar increase in subsidized student loans, tuition rose by up to 60 cents.

The mechanism is simple: when the government guarantees the tuition money, universities raise prices… simply because they can.

Healthcare is even worse.

Before Medicare and Medicaid were created in 1965, the government’s share of healthcare spending was about 31%. Today it’s roughly 64%. Medicaid spending alone has grown from $13 billion in 1975 to over $900 billion today.

And— shocker— healthcare prices have risen dramatically over the same period. The US now spends nearly $5 trillion per year on healthcare, far more per capita than any other developed country, with outcomes that are often worse.

The pattern is the same everywhere you look: the government shows up with money. Prices rise to absorb it. The subsidy becomes permanent. The industry restructures itself around the guaranteed revenue. And then anyone who suggests pulling back the money is accused of “cutting” a vital service.

Now consider the scale of this in America today.

Federal spending has risen from about 18% of GDP in the 1990s to nearly 24% today. That means almost a quarter of the entire American economy is government money.

Of this, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly estimated that 10% of the federal budget— roughly $600 billion per year— is lost to outright fraud of the Somali daycare type in Minnesota.

Then there’s the legal graft. California alone received roughly $100 billion in federal grants over the past few years for DEI initiatives that produced nothing except more government jobs and campaign contributions.

So how much of America’s economic output is actually real?

How much is just government money making a round trip— borrow more debt, hand it out through some boondoggle program where it is spent at a PepsiCo subsidiary, counted as “economic activity,” making people obese… then more money spent on healthcare to keep them alive and paying enough taxes for the government to be able to pay interest on the debt…

It’s absurd when you think about it. We don’t have a precise answer. But the Pepsi story gives us a clue. The moment the government stopped subsidizing one small corner of the economy, prices dropped by 15% within a week.

RFK didn’t regulate PepsiCo. He didn’t cap prices. He didn’t launch an antitrust investigation. He simply stopped the government from funneling taxpayer dollars into unhealthy food… and the market corrected overnight.

Now imagine what would happen if the government stopped subsidizing entire industries— the defense contractors billing $10,000 for a toilet seat, the universities charging $85,000 for a degree in gender studies, the healthcare system where nobody can tell you what anything costs.

We might finally find out how much of this economy is real.

And that, frankly, is what makes it so hard to fix. Because so many peoples’ livelihoods now depend on the government gravy train.

But this trajectory has an expiration date. The federal government borrows $2 trillion a year to keep it all going. Interest on that debt already exceeds $1 trillion annually— more than the entire military budget— and it’s growing faster than any other line item.

If rates stay elevated because inflation won’t come down, the cost of servicing the debt crowds out everything else.

If the government responds by printing money to cover the gap, inflation gets worse.

And it makes sense to have a Plan B that doesn’t depend on Washington finding fiscal discipline before the math catches up with them.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 20:05

FBI Confirms Vote-Counting Irregularities In Georgia 2020 Election

Last month, FBI agents executed a search warrant in Union City, Georgia, marking a sharp escalation in scrutiny surrounding Fulton County’s handling of the 2020 election. The FBI has now reportedly substantiated major irregularities in vote counting from Fulton County, Georgia, during the 2020 election and is now investigating whether those errors were deliberate violations of federal law. 

An affidavit filed by FBI Special Agent Hugh Raymond Evans last month, which was unsealed Tuesday, lays out five categories of confirmed problems in Fulton County's handling of ballots, raising questions that have simmered for over five years since Trump and his allies raised questions about the election in Georgia and other states where irregularities were alleged.

According to a report from Just the News, Evans filed the affidavit last month to establish probable cause for a raid that seized around 700 boxes of ballots from an Atlanta-area storage warehouse. The investigation stemmed from a referral by Kurt Olsen, President Trump's election integrity czar. Evans interviewed roughly a dozen unnamed witnesses about allegations tied to the contested Georgia race, where Joe Biden edged out Trump by less than 12,000 votes in the official results.

"Some of those allegations have been disproven while some of those allegations have been substantiated, including through admissions by Fulton County," Evans wrote.

"This warrant application is part of an FBI criminal investigation into whether any of the improprieties were intentional acts that violated federal criminal laws."

Fulton County admitted it lacks scanned images of all 528,777 ballots counted during the initial count and of the 527,925 ballots tallied during the state's first recount.

County officials also confirmed that during the recount, some ballots were scanned multiple times. Ballot images obtained through public records requests show identical markings appearing on duplicated images.

During the Risk Limiting Audit, hand counters reported vote totals for batches that didn't match the actual votes inside those batches.

According to the affidavit, "The State’s Performance Review Board reported that Secretary of State investigators confirmed inaccurate batch tallies from the Risk Limiting Audit.” 

Then there's the matter of the pristine absentee ballots.

Auditors assisting in the Risk Limiting Audit reported counting supposed absentee ballots that had "never been creased or folded, as would be required for the ballot to be mailed to the voter and for the ballot to be returned in the sealed envelope requiring the voter's signature for authentication." 

The timeline adds another wrinkle. 

On the deadline day to report recount results, Fulton County initially declared a total of 511,343 ballots—17,434 fewer than the original count. By the next day, that number had jumped to 527,925. Thousands of ballots, more than Joe Biden’s margin of victory, had simply appeared overnight.

"If these deficiencies were the result of intentional action, it would be a violation of federal law regardless of whether the failure to retain records or the deprivation of a fair tabulation of a vote was outcome determinative for any particular election or race," Evans said.

“Many of the claims made in the affidavits were previously vetted by the Georgia State Election Board and through litigation,” reports Fox News Digital. “Trump and his lawyers at the time lost all of their cases after judges found they either did not have standing to bring the lawsuits or that the allegations lacked merit.”

For years, officials insisted the 2020 process was sound, dismissing concerns as conspiracy theories.

What remains unclear is whether the problems resulted from incompetence, chaos, or intent.

That's the question the FBI is now trying to answer. For those who spent the last five years arguing that Georgia's election administration deserved scrutiny, the affidavit offers a measure of vindication. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 19:40

Congress Suspects ATF Has Gun Registry With 1.1 Billion Records

Authored by Aidan Johnston, Federal Affairs Director for Gun Owners of America,

A group of 27 members of Congress, led by Representative Michael Cloud of Texas are sounding the alarm on the expansion of ATF’s illegal registry of guns and gun owners.

According to a recently released letter, addressed to ATF Deputy Director Robert Cedaka, ATF has not responded to a previous inquiry regarding the expansion of the registry. These Congressmen are concerned that ATF may now have over a billion records in their registry.

Thank you to all who signed onto this letter to hold ATF accountable! pic.twitter.com/BMOG2k86mP

— Gun Owners of America (@GunOwners) February 4, 2026

Originally, in 2021, Gun Owners of America revealed that the ATF was “processing” over 54.7 million “out-of-business records” per year.

Following this revelation, a Congressional investigation was started. This investigation uncovered the shocking reality that ATF had over 920 million gun registration records in a centralized, searchable, digital database- in total violation of federal law.

In 1986, Congress passed the Firearm Owners Protection Act, or FOPA. A portion of this act bans the federal government from ever keeping a searchable database of gun owners.

The exact text of the law reads like this:

No such rule or regulation prescribed after the date of the enactment of the Firearms Owners’ Protection Act may require that records required to be maintained under this chapter or any portion of the contents of such records, be recorded at or transferred to a facility owned, managed, or controlled by the United States or any State or any political subdivision thereof, nor that any system of registration of firearms, firearms owners, or firearms transactions or dispositions be established.

Every tyrannical government on earth has first disarmed its population before committing terrible atrocities upon them.

From Nazi Germany to Communist Russia, to even as recent as Venezuela under Hugo Chavez, once populations are disarmed the Government is free to do as it pleases, often at the great peril to its own citizens.

Knowing this, a provision banning the US Government from creating a centralized registry was placed into the Firearm Owners Protection Act.

But the bureaucrats at ATF didn’t like that and decided to go around the law and create a registry anyway.

And during the Biden Administration, the conditions were created for further expansion of this registry.

For example, President Biden directed his ATF to modify a regulation that allowed dealers to destroy firearms transfer records after 20 years. Instead, he mandated that these forms could no longer be destroyed.

What reason would the federal government have such an interest in firearms transaction records, unless it was to create a gun registry?

But there was one problem; the registry could not be expanded without gun dealers (FFLs) going out of business.

President Biden had a solution for that, he proclaimed a new policy for ATF, “zero tolerance.”

With this policy, dealers could have their federal firearms license revoked, and therefore would be put out of business, allowing the ATF to capture more of those out-of-business records for its registry.

And that’s exactly what ATF did.

In the years of zero tolerance, FFL license revocations skyrocketed. ATF broke records, revoking more licenses during the Biden-era than it had in over 20 years.

Finally, thanks to President Trump and FBI Director (then ATF Director as well) Kash Patel, the zero-tolerance policy is no more.

But ATF’s illegal registry still exists and is still growing. To make matters worse, ATF is currently refusing to respond to congressional inquiry about the registry.

In Rep. Cloud’s letter, he writes:

“[W]e are also troubled by ATF’s lack of a response to our investigative inquiry. Your continued refusal to provide basic information raises serious questions about whether the ATF—despite changes in leadership and stated priorities—remains in compliance with several congressional appropriations restrictions, a federal statute, and the Second and Fourteenth Amendments.”

ATF must respond to Rep. Cloud’s letter. In addition, we’re calling on the Trump Administration to work with us at Gun Owners of America and our allies in Congress to completely destroy ATF’s illegal registry once and for all.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 19:15

Hegseth Makes Clear: 'Trump Favors Negotiated Deal With Iran'

Despite Trump's threats about sending a second Carrier Group to the MidEast, Secretary of War (Defense Dept) Pete Hegseth said this week at an event in Maine that "President Trump has been clear to Iran, he wants a negotiated settlement. I think it would be a wise choice for them to take him up on that deal. The world saw America's capabilities, peace through strength deterrence in action."

But to be expected, he hyped American military capabilities in the Middle East. "...Peace through strength, deterrence in action. We were out of Iran before Iran even knew we were there. No other country can do that" - in reference to the June war in which US bombers hit three Iranian nuclear sites with bunker-busting bombs.

This has been met with an Iranian military warning that US assets in the region will be targeted in such a 'next round scenario'. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps official Aziz Ghazanfari, a deputy head of the Guard’s political department, has reviewed that in the context of Oman-based indirect negotiations with the US, Iran was presented with four demands that went beyond the nuclear issue.

The key sticking point is Iran's conventional ballistic missile arsenal. Israel wants complete disarmament or at least a monitored reduction in range. So far, Israel is represents the hard line position, which has clearly influenced some officials in the Trump administration.

The AFP has newly published the below infographic:

But amid the military and political pressure, Iran is not going to give up the one thing it considers its first line of defense: the ability to hit back in the event of an Israel-US attack.

Hegseth in his latest comment on the issue warned Tehran it would be a "wise choice" to accept Trump's offer. All of this makes an attack in the next couple days unlikely - however, there are clear signs of a continued Pentagon build-up in the region.

As for where diplomacy stands, Iranian analyst and long time observer of Iran’s nuclear dossier, Hassan Beheshti-Pour, says that the real substance "lies in the technical options quietly circulating, not in public rhetoric". Among these options:

• a temporary and voluntary suspension of enrichment, not dismantlement;
• a freeze-for-freeze mechanism pairing enrichment pauses with sanctions suspension and even the idea of a multinational nuclear fuel bank (Russia, Kazakhstan, or elsewhere) to guarantee supply while addressing proliferation concerns.
• Beheshti-Pour also points to broader confidence building frameworks, including regional security arrangements aimed at reducing the rationale for external military pressure.

As we detailed earlier, Iran is offering to dilute its enriched uranium if Washington agrees to remove all sanctions on the country.

This week the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, is strongly signaling Tehran is ready to play ball, even if it is on Washington's terms - and after a history of the US side breaking its word (starting with the first Trump admin's unilateral pullout from the JCPOA nuclear deal).

"The possibility of diluting 60% enriched uranium... depends on whether, in return, all sanctions are lifted or not," Eslami made clear.

All of this stems from last month's very bloody protests and riots inside Iran, largely the result of the stranglehold that US sanctions have on the population. The White House since then has threatened regime change and dialed up the sanctions. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 18:50

Nuclear Heavyweight Holtec Files For IPO

Submitted by Steffan Szumowski from The Nuclear Review

Holtec International filed confidentially for an IPO recently with the SEC. The company alluded to the possibility of going public in 2026 earlier last year, as the nuclear renaissance has reignited investor interest in the almost forgotten nuclear industry. While the public market has only seen junior companies so far, Holtec is coming to market after being in the game for decades.

A Barron's article from June of last year estimates Holtec could be worth more than $10 billion on over $500 million of annual revenue, as the company attempts to pull off the first reactor restart in American history at the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan. The reactor restart, which has inspired multiple other restarts across the country, is one of the few things the company is known for. Yet, after decades of industry involvement, Holtec is involved in a lot more than just resurrecting nuclear reactors:

• Nuclear plant decommissioning
• Reactor restart
• Small modular reactor development
• Used nuclear fuel management
• Heat transfer equipment manufacturing
• Non-nuclear technologies

Nuclear plant decommissioning

Holtec Decommissioning International (HDI), a subsidiary of Holtec International, is responsible for taking a reactor plant with single or multiple reactor units on site from shutdown to as close to greenfield as possible. This involves handling the used nuclear fuel and dismantlement of radioactive systems and facilities.

HDI currently has three projects: Oyster Creek Generating Station in New Jersey, Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station in Massachusetts, and Indian Point Energy Center in New York. Decommissioning is further along and well past the point of no return at Oyster Creek and Pilgrim, but Indian Point was noted as a potential restart candidate by Holtec last year. Governor Hochul, even with her 5 GW new nuclear capacity target, has already come out as being against the idea of restarting Indian Point in favor of new construction projects in upstate instead.

Reactor restart

Initially announced in September of 2022, the Palisades are the first of many reactor restart efforts in the United States. Holtec purchased Palisades from Entergy in June of 2022. The DOE issued a $1.5 billion loan commitment in 2024 to support the effort and has already issued several tranches of the loan through 2025. The NRC has also created multiple novel regulatory pathways to enable the reissuance of an operator's license for the plant, along with multiple exceptions for system restorations.

Originally targeted for the end of 2025, multiple material issues, most notably with the steam generators, have pushed the restart completion out several months. Completion is now anticipated in the middle of 2026. After the plant is restored to operations, there is no indication of Holtec looking to sell the plant to a utility, so the company will own and operate the plant through its subsidiary, Holtec Palisades. 

Small modular reactor development

Holtec has been developing a small modular reactor for over ten years, initially called the SMR-160 and rated to about 160 MWe. Since then, the design was upgraded in 2023 to the SMR-300, now with a capacity of 320 MWe. The reactor is a pressurized water reactor (PWR) designed to operate with commercially available low enriched uranium (LEU). The development of their small reactor program is controlled by their wholly-owned subsidiary SMR LLC.

SMR LLC is actively pursuing deployment of their first two SMR-300s at the Palisades in Michigan, co-located with the reactor being restarted by HDI. The company has submitted a construction application to the NRC for what they call Pioneer Units 1 and 2. In addition to asking for permission to construct the new small reactors, Holtec is also requesting permission to begin construction on some non-nuclear systems at the site through a Limited Work Authorization. The initial deployment of the first two reactors in Michigan has also received government support in the form of a $400 million from the Department of Energy. 

SMR LLC has additionally led the charge for America's expansion in India. In early 2025, Holtec received permission from the US government to export the SMR-300 design to one of the biggest potential nuclear power markets outside of China. Holtec’s CEO has been quoted multiple times citing India as a major potential opportunity for them in the years ahead.

Used nuclear fuel management

Holtec is the international leader in the safe transportation and storage of used nuclear fuel. They utilize their HI-STORM and HI-STAR dry cask systems throughout the world with the highest market share compared to their competitors. As good as they are though, there are still those in politics that use baseless fear-mongering to push back against the safe handling and storage of used nuclear fuel.

New Mexico lawmakers and executives, along with the support of the oil and gas industries, threw every wrench in their toolbox at Holtec in an effort to prevent the company from establishing the HI-STORE Consolidated Interim Storage Facility (CISF). The CISF was an attempt by Holtec to consolidate some of the nation's more temporary dry cask storage facilities into one location. Regardless of how safe the science proves these casks are, New Mexico locals and activists acted as if they were fighting against a company dumping scary green nuclear waste all over their backyards. Even after arguing one of the wrenches from New Mexico all the way up to the Supreme Court, which ruled in Holtec's favor, the company ended up canceling the entire project in 2025 due to exhaustion and lack of will to continue what would likely be another several years of absurd lawfare.

Heat transfer equipment manufacturing

If you have energy in one system and need to get it to another system without the two energy carriers touching each other, Holtec is there to help. Unlike a lot of their competitors that make components for just the primary system or just the secondary system, Holtec works on both sides of the radiation boundary. The company designs and fabricates water-cooled condensers, feedwater heaters, steam generators, and a variety of auxiliary plant heat exchangers.

Non-nuclear technologies

Holtec is also involved in non-nuclear systems such as solar, geothermal, and fossil fuels. Their Green Boiler is designed to replace coal plants that are being phased out. The Green Boiler is essentially a giant tank of engineered salts that are used to store energy from other production facilities such as solar farms or SMR-300 plants. The energy stored within the engineered salts can then be dispatched to the grid or other industrial processes on demand.

In summary…

Holtec is not just some brand new reactor developer walking in with a PowerPoint and a dream. The company has been around for over 40 years and is well diversified throughout the nuclear industry. One of their best features is that an extremely small amount of their business depends on the success of the nuclear renaissance.

Most of their work will remain relatively constant as the world's existing fleet of over 400 reactors continues to operate and age. These facilities will require constant attention, upgrades, and refits as the years go on. In particular, used nuclear fuel transportation, handling, and storage services will be in demand for at least the next century.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 18:25

"Botched Surgeries And Misidentified Body Parts": AI Is Off To An Ugly Start In The Operating Room

Artificial intelligence is spreading quickly through modern healthcare, promising to make medical treatment faster, more accurate, and more personalized. But as hospitals and manufacturers adopt the technology, safety records, lawsuits, and regulatory struggles suggest that the transition has not been smooth, a new investigation by Reuters shows.

One example involves Acclarent, a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, which added machine-learning software to its TruDi Navigation System in 2021. The company described the update as “a leap forward,” saying it would help ear, nose, and throat surgeons better guide their instruments during sinus procedures.

Before the AI upgrade, the device had generated only a handful of malfunction reports. In the years that followed, however, federal regulators received more than 100 reports involving technical failures or patient injuries. At least 10 patients were reported harmed between late 2021 and 2025, many in cases where the system allegedly gave incorrect information about where surgical tools were located inside the skull.

Some of these incidents were severe. Reports described leaking spinal fluid, punctured skull bases, and strokes caused by damaged arteries. Several patients filed lawsuits, arguing that the device “was arguably safer before integrating” artificial intelligence. Manufacturers and distributors rejected those claims, insisting there is “no credible evidence” linking the AI software to the injuries.

Two Texas cases illustrate how these disputes have played out. In 2022, Erin Ralph suffered a stroke after sinus surgery in which her surgeon relied on TruDi. Her lawsuit claims the system “misled and misdirected” the doctor, who “had no idea he was anywhere near the carotid artery.” A year later, another patient, Donna Fernihough, experienced a similar injury. Her complaint alleges that Acclarent rushed the technology to market and accepted “only 80% accuracy” for some features.

Both cases remain in court, and the company has denied wrongdoing. Court records also show that one surgeon involved had financial ties to Acclarent, though the firm and the doctor’s representatives say those payments were unrelated to patient outcomes.

The Reuters piece notes that concerns about TruDi are part of a broader pattern. By 2025, the FDA had authorized more than 1,300 medical devices that use artificial intelligence, roughly twice as many as just a few years earlier. A review by researchers found that many of these products were later recalled, often within a year of approval. The recall rate for AI-based devices was about double that of similar technologies without machine learning.

Federal safety databases contain hundreds of reports involving these products. Some describe prenatal ultrasound software that “wrongly labels fetal structures,” while others involve heart monitors that allegedly failed to detect abnormal rhythms. Manufacturers have said most of these incidents did not lead to patient harm and were sometimes caused by user error or data-display problems.

Regulators warn that such reports are incomplete and cannot prove that a device caused an injury. Still, former FDA employees say the volume of AI products has strained the agency’s ability to monitor risks. Staffing cuts and recruitment difficulties have reduced the number of specialists available to evaluate complex algorithms. As one former reviewer put it, “If you don’t have the resources, things are more likely to be missed.”

Unlike pharmaceutical drugs, most medical devices are not required to undergo large clinical trials before reaching patients. Companies can often secure approval by showing that a new product resembles an older one, even if the update includes artificial intelligence. Critics argue that this system was designed for simpler technologies and may not adequately address the uncertainties introduced by machine learning.

“I think the FDA’s traditional approach to regulating medical devices is not up to the task,” said Dr. Alexander Everhart. “We’re relying on manufacturers to do a good job… I don’t know what’s in place at the FDA represents meaningful guardrails.”

At the same time, AI is moving beyond hardware into everyday medical practice. Doctors increasingly use automated tools to draft notes and manage records, while patients turn to chatbots for health advice. Physicians say these systems can save time, but they also create new risks when people rely on them instead of professional guidance.

Supporters of medical AI argue that the technology will eventually lead to better diagnoses, safer surgeries, and faster drug discovery. Critics counter that the pace of adoption has outstripped oversight.

Taken together, safety reports, legal disputes, and regulatory challenges suggest that artificial intelligence is reshaping medicine faster than institutions can adapt. While the technology offers significant potential benefits, recent experience shows that errors, oversight gaps, and unanswered questions remain part of its rapid expansion.

You can read the full piece by Reuters here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 18:00

The College Calculation Has Flipped

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Buried in new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a bearish sign for a college education, the first time we’ve seen this in 50 years. Trade workers without a college education are gaining new advantages in employment stability and even in earnings. On paper, a college degree still earns more but that edge is slipping too.

W. Scott McGill/Shutterstock

The Cleveland Fed explains: “For decades, college graduates have typically faced lower unemployment rates, found jobs faster, and experienced more stable employment than high school graduates without college experience. Combined with higher expected wages, these advantages reinforced higher education as a pathway to economic security. However, some of the long-standing job market advantages offered by having a college degree may be eroding.”

The BLS data is extremely revealing. The unemployment rate for people with no college education has dropped dramatically to 4.0 percent, while those with some college rose just as dramatically to 3.8 percent.

The trend line here is what is instructive. The obvious edge from holding a college degree seems to be slipping while those without such a degree are gaining steam. This is the first time we’ve seen this trend in half a century.

The income advantages are still there for a college education but even here, we are seeing a generational shift. The pace at which income is rising for those who choose trades has more upward energy than those without. The gap is there but narrowing.

The Washington Post explains: “The unemployment gap between workers with bachelor’s degrees and those with occupational associate’s degrees—such as plumbers, electricians and pipe fitters—flipped in 2025, leaving trade workers with a slight edge for six months out of the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s the first time trade workers have had a leg up since the BLS started tracking this data in the 1990s.”

It’s a bit ironic that this story was posted just days before the Post itself laid off fully one-third of its workers, a gutting of the staff of a major paper that we’ve never seen before. No question that Artificial Intelligence has something to do with it, but, then again, AI is a convenient excuse for what these institutions knew they had to do to regain something approaching profitability.

There are two additional factors at play here.

First, everyone employed in a high-end professional setting knows with absolute certainty that all major corporations are wildly overstaffed and have been for many years, even decades dating back to the advent of artificially cheap credit in 2000. After that point, the banking system subsidized leverage over real capital and earnings. The consequence was a professional hiring boom like we’ve never seen.

Over several days, I spoke to many friends who are employed in these large institutions and asked for their estimates of how much in the way of overstaffing they face. I got estimates that range from 50 to 90 percent. In other words, in their own experience, at least half the workers in large institutions do not actually add value, if they do anything at all.

This is a remarkable testimony. Recall that the “Dilbert” cartoonist Scott Adams recently died. The main import of his column was all about satirizing the sheer waste in corporate America. The amount of bureaucracy is appalling as are the endless demands for meetings, committees, compliance teams, training, and absolute make-work programs that do nothing for the consumer or the profitability of the company.

We’ve seen what has happened to high-end management over the last three years. Most corporations are laying off workers—not those who face the customer but the managerial layers. The lockdown pandemic period essentially proved that these companies might actually perform better if this layer of worker stays home and goofs off. That period essentially convinced owners (stockholders) that vast numbers of people needed to be permanently terminated.

Recall that when Elon Musk took over Twitter, his first actions concerned personnel. He ended up firing an astonishing four-fifths of the legacy employees. He just did not see the need for them. Almost immediately, the platform became better. It is a private company so we don’t have a fix on profitability metrics today but it is easily the number one news app for the world today.

That example sent a signal to the whole of the corporate world. Layoffs were just a matter of time.

The second factor concerns earnings potential of college vs. no college. There has always been a basic fallacy at work in interpreting the data. The fallacy is called Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc, Latin for: after this therefore because of this.

To be sure, a college degree is associated with higher earnings, but is that because of the degree or because of the kind of person who hangs around long enough to earn a degree, can afford a degree, or is in a profession that requires a degree? Once you correct for all these confounding issues, it is not at all clear that the data are telling the truth. Certainly it is far from the case that a degree causes one to make a high income.

Consider the costs of college beyond the outrageous financial expense. We are taking people who are at the height of their learning potential, the very time of life when becoming an adult and a great worker is at a premium, and sticking them in childish environments. College encourages terrible lifestyle choices, finding shortcuts, drugs, drinking too much, and otherwise experimenting with dangerous choices.

And the student does this for fully four years, during the most impressionable early years of adulthood, leaving graduates with no work ethic and a wildly distorted view of what life is all about. It seems nearly unfair to throw such people into professional life. They are ill-equipped.

Compare this reality with someone who leaves high school to learn a trade, whether that is welding, construction, or coding. After four years, such people already have a gigantic advantage over their peers in college. They know what it is to get to work on time, do what the boss says, achieve things, manage money, and so on, essentially skills that kids matriculating in college do not have.

Hence the real cost of college is not even the out-of-pocket expense or the debt. The actual cost is four years lost during the most important years of one’s life. And as for the actual education one receives, times have dramatically changed. You have free access to all the professors and teaching you want. With some discipline, a person with a job can obtain a PhD-level education in any field on nights and weekends with zero financial expenditure.

Looked at this way, it was only a matter of time before the advantages of declining college would become obvious. Believe me, parents are paying close attention. The main reason they spend a quarter of a million to send kids to college is to guarantee a better income in the future.

When that promise is revealed to be a false one, everything changes. Then we are only left with the social and marital advantages of college—which might be enough to keep them open for another 10 years or longer. But the shine is fading fast and the edge is getting ever more dull. The trendline in the data these days is favoring the trades over the dorm room.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 17:40

"Largest Act Of Deregulation In US History": Trump Admin To Repeal Obama-Era Greenhouse Gas Finding

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is about to pull the rug from underneath climate regulation...

The EPA, under Lee Zeldin, plans to revoke the 2009 "endangerment finding", an Obama-era determination that six greenhouse gases “threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations” and that has anchored federal climate regulation under the Clean Air Act, according to a new Wall Street Journal report.

Bloomberg reported that the repeal could be announced as soon as Wednesday, citing an unnamed source.

Repealing the Obama-era climate finding would strip away the legal foundation for federal greenhouse gas regulation, which has been nothing more than toxic and degrowth for the economy, while China and India expanded coal-fired generation to power manufacturing hubs.

"This amounts to the largest act of deregulation in the history of the United States," EPA head Zeldin said in an interview.

Officials say it does not directly apply to emissions rules for oil-and-gas power plants and other stationary sources, but repealing the finding could make it easier to challenge or roll back those regulations at a later date.

The rollback would be a major win for the economy, which has been burdened by years of Democrats' "climate crisis" policies, which have epically backfired as electricity rates have soared amid terrible bets on unreliable solar and wind generation and the retirement of fossil-fuel plants.

This has all collided with grid strain in the data center era, triggering a power bill crisis across Maryland and other Mid-Atlantic states.

Also, this brutally cold winter has only underscored one very important point for 'team fossil fuels': coal and natural gas have helped keep the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast power grids from collapsing in recent weeks.

Related:

• "Sleep Tight, America. We Got This": NatGas And Coal Power Plants Prevented Grid Collapse During Historic Winter Blast

Since taking office, President Trump has pursued deregulation and pushed for reliable fossil fuels, telling supporters during the campaign trail, "drill, baby, drill." The goal, the president has stated over and over, is to reverse the worst inflation storm in a generation, which he blames on Democrats and their nation-killing green agenda.

On President Trump's first day of office last year, he signed an executive order directing the EPA to submit an assessment on the endangerment finding. Then by July, he received the proposal to rescind the finding.

Now, the rollback that would equal upwards of $1 trillion in cuts is set to be announced this week, along with several other energy- and climate-related announcements that will help drive down the cost of living.

"More energy drives human flourishing," Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in an interview. "Energy abundance is the thing that we have to focus on, not regulating certain forms of energy out."

The U.S. economy has spent two decades under "climate crisis" regulations, and it has backfired spectacularly. Time to get back to basics. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 17:20

Obamacare Fraud Targeted By New Federal Rule

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has unveiled new regulations to strengthen the integrity of the Obamacare insurance exchanges and promote innovation.

The new federal rule, released for comment on Feb. 9, will lower the cost of health care, according to Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

“At President [Donald] Trump’s direction, [this agency] is driving down costs and rooting out fraud across our health insurance programs,” Kennedy said in a statement, predicting that the policy changes overall will reduce premiums and increase consumer choice.

Eligibility Verification

New anti-fraud regulations will require stronger enforcement of eligibility and income verification, correcting a situation that some observers say allowed unscrupulous insurance brokers to sign up millions of people for the program without their knowledge, particularly in plans with no premiums.

America’s Health Insurance Plans, the trade association for health insurance companies, has disputed that claim. However, 24 had more enrollees in Obamacare zero-premium plans in 2024 than they had qualifying residents, according to data from the think tank Paragon Health Institute.

The new regulations, once finalized, will require agents and brokers to use federally-approved forms for verifying enrollee eligibility and to obtain their consent for enrollment.

The regulations also make it clear what action a consumer must take to review and affirm their personal and eligibility information, and to signify their consent.

The rule would clarify which individuals qualify for Obamacare subsidies as “eligible noncitizens,” and would deny subsidies to those who are ineligible for Medicaid due to their immigration status.

Marketing Practices

A second program change prohibits certain marketing practices for agents and brokers who help customers sign up for Obamacare through the federal and state marketplaces.

Providing cash, cash equivalents, or monetary rebates to influence customers to enroll would be prohibited.

Also prohibited are falsely suggesting that customers would qualify for a zero-premium plan and misleading customers about enrollment deadlines.

“This proposal would ensure consumers are provided accurate information about the Exchange prior to enrollment, maintain the integrity of the exchanges, and foster trust between consumers and agents, brokers, and web-brokers,” according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Payment Tracking

The new rule seeks to create an information security protocol for enrollees of the program as of 2024 to measure improper payments in the state-based exchanges.

Fraud, waste, and abuse costs the program up to $27 billion annually by some estimates, said Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.).

“This fraud can directly impact the legitimate needs of patients, who may face denied claims or delayed care when their providers struggle to verify which insurance is valid due to the chaos created by schemes like people using stolen identities to sign up for multiple plans,” Smith said in November.

Consumer Choice

Other provisions of the rule aim to expand consumer choice and bring down prices.

The draft of the policy permits insurance companies to offer catastrophic plans with terms from one to 10 years. Currently, customers must be either under 30 years old, ineligible for a subsidy for a marketplace plan, or have a hardship or affordability exemption.

The rule would expand hardship exemptions for people aged 30 and above to make catastrophic plans more accessible.

Also, insurers would be allowed to offer Obamacare plans that do not meet the standard plan requirements. Standardized plans have the same deductibles and cost-sharing, which makes it easier to compare various plans based on price and other factors.

The change aims to give issuers more flexibility to tailor plan options to their marketplaces.

“The goal is simple: lower costs, more choice, and exchanges that work as intended,” Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said in a Feb. 9 statement.

The proposed regulations will be published in the Federal Register on Feb. 11 and open for comment for 30 days.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 17:00

Trump Threatens To Send Second Carrier Near Iran

For the past week, the Pentagon's ongoing military build-up in the Middle East has grabbed world headlines amid fears President Trump is ready to do another Venezuela - but this time targeting a much bigger and more formidable country and its army - the Islamic Republic of Iran.

US officials have lately made clear that Trump favors a negotiated solution where the Iranians would give up their nuclear program, dilute enrichment, as well as significantly curb their long and medium-range ballistic missile arsenal. 

But already by Tuesday, Trump himself is waving the big stick again, threatening to deploy a second aircraft carrier near Iran if Oman talks don't bear fruit.

The president told Axios in a newly published interview:

"We have an armada that is heading there and another one might be going," Trump said, adding that he's "thinking" about sending another aircraft carrier strike group.

Two carriers would definitely signal 'game on' for conflict with Iran.

Illustrative DOD image

The USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group is already poised for action in regional waters just south of Iran, and this involves dozens of fighter jets, Tomahawk missiles, along with several support warships. 

Trump took the opportunity to repeat a US ultimatum to Tehran: "Either we will make a deal or we will have to do something very tough like last time," he told Axios. The Iranians will no doubt have this ringing in their ears headed into a planned second round of talks next week.

But Trump still claimed that Iran "wants to make a deal very badly" and is engaging much more seriously than in the past. There are signs that this is accurate, given the latest offer to dilute its enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.

The US president articulated his view that the June war taught the Iranians a huge lesson: "Last time they didn't believe I would do it," Trump said. "They overplayed their hand."

But of course, at that very moment just before Israel attacked (followed by the US bombing three nuclear sites by the close of the 12-day conflict), Iran thought it was engaged in good faith talks. Trump is still holding out hope that "We can make a great deal with Iran."

Trump reportedly said he is considering sending a second aircraft carrier near Iran.

*It would take 15-20 days for a second aircraft carrier to get ready to deploy and arrive in the region. https://t.co/gKuuPWN53C pic.twitter.com/A0xP56c9gH

— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) February 10, 2026

Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu is due in Washington Wednesday. It's something like Bibi's seventh visit, and without doubt he will push Trump for maximum force and threats against the Ayatollah. Some pundits have warned that Israel is leading the way on Iran policy, but Trump has at times shown willingness to put Netanyahu in his place - so the Israeli prime minister will have to tread carefully.

Meanwhile all the obvious things remain in Washington's max etc tool kit: the WSJ reports Tuesday the US is weighing seizing tankers (again) carrying Iranian oil in order to pressure Tehran.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 16:40

Joe Rogan Reveals Details Of His Invite To Epstein Island

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Joe Rogan has come forward to explain his appearance in the latest Jeffrey Epstein file dump, emphasizing that he’s mentioned solely because he refused to meet the convicted sex offender.

Rogan’s rejection stands in stark contrast to the ongoing associations maintained by powerful figures like Reid Hoffman and Bill Gates, fueling demands for accountability amid congressional scrutiny.

The Department of Justice released over three million pages of Epstein-related documents on January 30, more than a month after a congressionally mandated December 2025 deadline. This massive dump stems from bipartisan pressure in Congress to uncover the full extent of Epstein’s elite network, including potential blackmail and influence operations.

Central to this is the House Oversight Committee’s investigation, led by Chairman James Comer. The probe aims to question high-profile individuals tied to Epstein, with depositions and potential public testimonies designed to expose any wrongdoing or cover-ups. 

Comer has already secured agreements from Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify, and signaled that Gates is likely next, amid allegations of affairs, STDs, and deeper entanglements detailed in the files.

Epstein emailed Krauss: “I saw you did the Joe Rogan show, can you introduce me, I think he’s funny.”

Krauss responded: “I will reach out to Rogan. I think I have his email, or at least his producer’s email. He lives and works in L.A.”

But Rogan, after Googling Epstein, rejected the idea outright.

On his podcast, Rogan recounted: “I’m in the [Epstein] files for not going. One of my guests was trying to get me to meet him. I was like, ‘B*tch, are you high?!’”

He added that upon the approach, his response was: “What the f*ck are you talking about?”

Krauss then apologized to Epstein in an email: “Sorry about Rogan so far. He seems MORE TIMID than I would have thought.”

Rogan’s decision came years after Epstein’s 2008 plea deal for sex crimes, but before his 2019 arrest. A basic search revealed the red flags that apparently escaped—or were ignored by—many in Silicon Valley and beyond.

This integrity contrasts sharply with Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn co-founder and major Democrat donor. As we previously reported in our coverage of David Sacks’ exposé, Hoffman is mentioned over 2,600 times in the Epstein files. 

The records show a multiyear relationship, with Hoffman visiting Epstein’s infamous island, New York townhouse, and New Mexico ranch. They conducted deals together and referred to each other as “very good friends.”

Sacks slammed The New York Times for downplaying Hoffman’s ties while targeting right-leaning tech figures like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel.

Similarly, Bill Gates faces mounting pressure. Comer confirmed Gates will likely be subpoenaed for questioning under oath, following revelations of emails alleging an affair and STD contracted via Epstein’s network. Gates’ spokesperson denies the claims, but the probe presses on.

Rogan’s story highlights how everyday diligence could have derailed Epstein’s web, yet partisan protections seemingly shielded left-leaning elites. 

As the Oversight Committee’s work continues, these disclosures chip away at institutional rot, demanding equal justice regardless of political allegiance.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 16:20

US Consumer Debt Delinquencies Soar To Highest Since 2017 While Office Delinquencies Hit Record High

It will come as a surprise to exactly nobody that the Fed's latest quarterly Household Debt and Credit report (for Q4 2025) reported total household debt balances increased by $191 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from 2025 Q3, to a new all-time high. Balances now stand at $18.8 trillion and have increased by $4.6 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. 

This is how various debt balances changed through the quarter: 

• Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports grew by $98 billion during the fourth quarter of 2025 and totaled $13.17 trillion at the end of December.
• Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) rose by $12 billion, the 15th consecutive quarterly increase.There is now $433 billion in outstanding HELOC balances, $116 billion above the low reached in 2022Q1. In total, non-housing balances increased by $81 billion, a 1.6% increase from 2025Q3.
• Credit card balances rose by $44 billion during the fourth quarter and now total $1.28 trillion outstanding, up 5.5% since last year.
• Student loan balances increased by $11 billion and now stand at $1.66 trillion.
• Auto loan balances edged up by $12 billion to $1.66 trillion.
• Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer finance loans, rose by $14 billion and now total $564 billion.

New debt originations were also solid in the quarter:

• The volume of mortgage originations, which includes both refinance and purchase originations, increased with $524 billion newly originated in 2025 Q4, an uptick from the $512 billion seen in the previous quarter. It was the highest since 2022 when rates were far lower. 

• There were $181 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the fourth quarter, a small dip from the $184 billion observed in 2025 Q3.

• Aggregate limits on credit cards continued to rise, with a $95 billion (1.6%) uptick in the fourth quarter.
• Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $25 billion (2.5%), continuing an expansion in HELOC limits that began in 2022.

• Credit quality of newly originated mortgages held steady, while auto loans loosened slightly. The median credit score for new mortgage originations was 775 in 2025Q4, unchanged from 2025 Q3 while the tenth percentile declined from 660 to 650. For auto loans, the median credit score edged down, from 724 to 716. 

Taking a closer look at some of the negative changes below the surface, delinquency rates on loans ranging from mortgages to credit cards rose to 4.8% of all outstanding US household debt in the fourth quarter, up 0.3% sine Q3 2025 and the highest level since 2017, driven by higher defaults among low-income and young borrowers.

As Bloomberg notes, while the overall share of loans in some stage of default is near pre-pandemic averages, the rise in delinquencies among the lowest earners adds to evidence of an increasingly K-shaped economy, and nowhere was it more obvious than in the case of student loans - where with the Biden repayment moratorium has been over for the past year - we have seen a tsunami of both early delinquencies, with 16.3% of student-loan debt became delinquent in Q4 the biggest increase on record in data going back to 2004...

... and serious delinquencies (effectively defaults)...

... led by 50+ year-old "students" (almost certainly of the liberal major, blue-haired anti-ICE, variety).

The rise in defaults was also driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, and New York Fed researchers found that they were particularly high in lower income zip codes.

“As household debt levels grow modestly, mortgage delinquencies continue to increase,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, an economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said in a press release accompanying the figures. “Delinquency rates for mortgages are near historically normal levels, but the deterioration is concentrated in lower-income areas and in areas with declining home prices.”

The increased struggle in low-income and young borrowers’ ability to pay their loans is consistent with elevated unemployment rates among some parts of the population, the NY Fed researchers added. The jobless rate for workers 16 to 24 years old stood at 10.4% in December, near the highest levels since the depths of the pandemic in 2021, and largely the result of AI disruption. 

But if the Fed is concerned about the soaring debt delinquencies now, just wait  a few years until a third of all jobs are replaced by hallucinating chat bots, and the overall unemployment rate is 15%, something we discussed earlier. At that point the question will not be whether Kevin Warsh will shrink the balance sheet - he never will - but whether the coming Universal Basic Income money printing will be measured in the trillions or quadrillions. 

But wait, there's more: because chatbot algos do not need an office - and the workers they displace no longer need an office - the spiked in post-covid office defaults is back, and according to commercial real estate specialist Trepp, the CMBS delinquency rate increased again in
January 2026, climbing 17 basis points to a record 7.47%.

The increase was driven by a net increase in delinquent loans of almost $1.6 billion, primarily driven by the office sector.  For the second straight month, three of the five major property types saw increases to their delinquency rates, while two pulled back, although the mix was different in January.

The largest rate increase was in office, which rose 103 basis points to an all-time high of 12.34%. The previous high was 11.76% back in October last year. The second largest rate increase was multifamily’s, which seesawed back up by 30 basis points in January to 6.94%, following a decrease of similar magnitude of 34 basis points the month prior.

January’s balance of newly delinquent loans totaled just under $5.4 billion, while over $2.6 billion of delinquent loans cured over the same period, and $1.1 billion of delinquent loans paid off, resulting in a net delinquency increase of about $1.6 billion.

The office sector was the largest net contributor to the increase in the delinquency rate, while a large lodging loan that cured in January helped to offset some of the increase in the headline delinquency rate.

It gets worse: if we were to include loans that are beyond their maturity date but current on interest (delinquency status of performing matured balloon), the delinquency rate would be 9.14%, up 39 basis points from December. That is also 167 basis points higher than the headline rate of 7.47%, highlighting ongoing maturity-related stress.

Bottom line: at some point the AI revolution may well lead to a productivity revolution, but to get there the US will first go through a mass layoff wave, resulting in tens if not hundreds of millions of layoffs (a 15% unemployment rate to go with the 15% growth rate), coupled with a historic debt crisis and a collapse in virtually every commercial real estate sector while Blackstone buys up all the residential real estate it has had its eyes on for the past decade. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 15:45

Vitalik Buterin Calls For Ethereum-Led Alternative To The 'Race For AGI'

Authored by Vismaya V via Decrypt.co,

The Ethereum co-founder has outlined a four-quadrant Ethereum-AI buildout spanning private AI use, agent markets, and governance.

In brief

• Vitalik Buterin said Monday the very frame of “work on AGI” is flawed and called for AI development guided by decentralization, privacy, verification, and human empowerment.

• He outlined an Ethereum-linked roadmap focused on local LLMs, zero-knowledge payments for private AI API usage, and cryptographic privacy, among other key areas.

• Buterin’s approach contrasts with the AGI acceleration narratives from major AI labs, focusing on safer, Ethereum-based AI coordination.

Vitalik Buterin is calling for a different path in artificial intelligence—one that rejects a blind “race to AGI” and instead relies on Ethereum-style decentralization, verification, and privacy as guardrails for the AI era.

“The frame of ‘work on AGI’ itself contains an error,” Ethereum co-founder Buterin wrote in a post on X Monday, noting that the goal is often treated as an undifferentiated race where the main distinction is simply “that you get to be the one at the top.” 

He compared the phrase to vaguely describing Ethereum as just “working in finance” or “working on computing,” saying it obscures more important questions about direction and values.

Buterin said AI and crypto are too often approached from “completely separate philosophical perspectives,” and urged builders to integrate them. 

Instead of raw acceleration, AI development should focus on systems that “foster human freedom and empowerment” and ensure “the world does not blow up,” Buterin wrote, echoing his defensive-acceleration, or d/acc, framework.

Joni Pirovich, founder and CEO of Crystal aOS, told Decrypt, “Ethereum becoming the default settlement layer for AI-to-AI interactions is realistic.

It's less about 'accelerating AGI' and more about providing the necessary rails and guardrails for agentic commerce, trade, and investing. 

Trust and coordination, especially at the technology infrastructure and compliance infrastructure levels, are even more important now than ever.”

The comments land as major AI firms continue to publicly push toward AGI and superintelligence, with leading labs describing rapid progress in autonomous agents and advanced models. 

Buterin claims his alternative centers on safer, more verifiable infrastructure rather than larger models, outlining a practical roadmap in which Ethereum plays a central, though not exclusive, role. 

That includes local LLM tooling, zero-knowledge payments that let users call AI APIs without linking identity across requests, stronger cryptographic privacy, and client-side verification of AI services and attestations.

“Using Ethereum as an economic layer for AI-to-AI interaction is also directionally correct, but it will live mostly on rollups and app-specific L2s,” Midhun Krishna M, co-founder and CEO of LLM cost tracker TknOps.io, told Decrypt. 

Decentralized agent economies need programmable deposits, usage-based payments, and on-chain dispute resolution, Krishna said, adding that AI-augmented governance will require “identity, reputation, and stake-weighted accountability, not just better interfaces.”

Breaking it down

Vitalik grouped the Ethereum–AI design space into a four-part framework, illustrated as a 2x2 chart, spanning infrastructure vs. impact and survive vs. thrive outcomes. 

• One quadrant centers on tooling for trustless and private AI interaction, including local LLMs, zero-knowledge payments for anonymous API calls, cryptographic privacy upgrades, and client-side verification of AI services, TEE attestations, and proofs.

• Another quadrant positions Ethereum as an economic layer for AI activity, supporting API payments, bot-to-bot hiring, security deposits, on-chain dispute resolution, and AI reputation standards, such as proposed ERC-based models, aimed at enabling decentralized agent coordination rather than in-house platform control.

• A third focus revives the cypherpunk “don’t trust, verify” vision through local LLM assistants that can propose transactions, audit smart contracts, interpret formal verification proofs, and interact with apps without relying on centralized interfaces. 

• A fourth targets upgraded prediction markets, quadratic voting, and governance systems.

The comments echo a split that surfaced last year between Buterin and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who said his company was confident it knew how to build AGI and that AI agents could soon “join the workforce,” while Buterin promoted crypto-based safety rails and coordinated control mechanisms.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 15:25

California Power Bills Soar 39% As Wildfires and Policies Drive Costs

California residents have experienced the steepest rise in electricity costs in the nation, with average bills climbing 39% over the past six years, according to UC Berkeley’s Haas Energy Institute. Researchers link the surge to wildfire-related expenses and long-standing policy decisions that shifted more costs onto consumers, according to the NY Post.

“I represent a working-class district in Orange County, and constant utility rate increases mean incessant pressure for constituents to make ends meet,” Assemblymember Tri Ta told The Center Square.

He added, “I am very concerned about the cost of utilities in California. The main driver of our high costs are public policy decisions that were made long before I joined the Legislature but am tackling now.”

The Post writes that the increases come on top of California’s already high living costs, with families spending about $30,000 more than the national average on basic needs, according to the Transparency Foundation.

Analysts say utilities have been allowed to pass wildfire prevention and recovery expenses, infrastructure upgrades, and renewable energy investments directly to customers. Subsidies for rooftop solar have also shifted costs onto households without panels, according to UC Berkeley professor Severin Borenstein.

Elsewhere in the country, electricity prices generally tracked inflation from 2019 to 2025 or even declined. States such as Arizona, Minnesota, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, and North Carolina saw increases of just 1%, while rates fell in Nevada, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas, and South Carolina, the study found.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 15:05

A Market Crash And Recession Are Bullish, Not Bearish

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

This isn't "Capitalism," it's Model Collapse ushering in the inevitable conflagration.

One of the most peculiar hyper-normalized hallucinations about "Capitalism" is that markets and the economy "should always go up" and if they don't, something is terribly wrong and somebody better do something to fix it.

Remarkably, this hyper-normalized hallucination is the exact opposite of real-world "Capitalism," which relies on the periodic clearing of excesses of debt, leverage and speculation as its essential mechanism of self-correction and adaptation. If these are stripped out, "Capitalism" fails as a system.

The two charts of the NASDAQ stock index below illustrate the astounding divide between a real-world understanding of "Capitalism" and the hyper-normalized hallucination of always goes up "Capitalism."

Various justifications are trotted out to support the "markets and GDP should always go up" narrative:

1. There's always a Bull Market somewhere. In other words, the market and "growth" are always going up somewhere, and so rotating out of flat sectors into growing sectors enables markets to always go up.

2. The economy can no longer survive a market crash or recession, and so we can't allow either to happen. Spoiler alert: If the market and economy cannot survive self-correction, then "Capitalism" as a system has already failed.

3. The Federal Reserve has mastered the art of manipulating--oops, I mean managing--the market and economy via adjusting the dials of liquidity, stimulus, money supply, cost of credit, etc. As a happy result of their god-like financial powers, markets and GDP will never go down again, barring an alien invasion or asteroid strike.

These justifications overlook the need for systems to self-correct self-reinforcing excesses that reflect the inevitable self-reinforcing human emotions: greed / confidence and doubt / fear: soaring markets generate demand for more credit and leverage to boost higher risk gambles which in the euphoria of the bubble are perceived as guaranteed to win rather than guaranteed to fail.

Given that the core functions of capitalism require feedback that correct / clear excesses, these justifications are incoherent. Dynamic systems such as capitalism don't remain in a steady state; they are constantly in motion, and humanity's herd instinct and built-in attraction to windfalls will inevitably generate the madness of crowds which then generate excesses of borrowing, leverage, risk and speculation, all of which must be reset via market crashes and recessions.

If corrective market crashes and recessions are not allowed (via ever higher stimulus, moral-hazard backstops of the biggest gamblers, etc.), then the system becomes increasingly brittle and dependent on hallucinations such as "markets can always go up, and so they should always go up."

Actually, excesses must be wiped out to enable markets and economies to reset organically rather than kept aloft by centrally organized manipulation. The forest fire analogy explains this: routine, periodic fires burn off the deadwood that piles up in a forest, clearing space for new growth. If these healthy fires are suppressed, the deadwood (debt, leverage, speculation, moral hazard) reach dangerous extremes: when a fire finally ignites, the conflagration consumes the entire forest.

This is how markets clear excesses of speculation and risk: they crash 80% and reset over a period of years. Though the crash is naturally viewed as disastrously bearish by those absorbing the losses, it's ultimately bullish for the economy and market, as suppressing the self-correction generates system collapse.

This is how the incoherent, system-failure hallucination views this bullish process: quick, do more of what crippled the system to maintain the illusion that "Capitalism" is "markets always go up."

This isn't "Capitalism," it's Model Collapse ushering in the inevitable conflagration.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free). Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 14:45

Indians Bought More Gold Than Stocks In January, Goldman Sees Pros Buying Long-Dated Calls

The near-vertical surge in precious metals (arguably driven by speculative demand from China) came to a swift halt at the end of January, when silver suffered its biggest daily drop on record and gold plunged the most since 2013. 

As Goldman's top futures trader, Robert Quinn, points out (in a note available at out MarketDesk.ai portal to professional subscribers), according to Commitment of Traders reports, Managed Money sold a record amount of Gold futures surrounding month-end.

The report covering January 27th - February 3rd, which included a -11.4% drop post Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, displayed-$13.7bn of Managed Money selling, driven mostly by liquidation (-$12.1bn).

This marked a 10 year notional record and corroborated the plummet in aggregate open interest.

Over subsequent sessions, elevated price volatility caused additional long unwinds, consistent with flow models for systematic investors.

From February 3rd - 5th, Gold price and open interest lost -0.9% and -$4.3bn respectively. GS Futures Strategists' CTA model estimated some Gold selling. Similarly, the risk parity framework projected widespread commodity liquidation.

However bulls eventually returned alongside renewed Dollar weakness.

After initially proving resilient through Mega-Cap Tech weakness, the broad Dollar index lost -1.0% during February 5th -9th, enabling a +3.9% Gold bounce.

Catalysts included the US administration's signaling of an imminent soft labor report plus Chinese regulators' advice to curb holdings of US Treasuries.

Gold aggregate open interest regained +$2.7bn. Moreover, normalized 25 delta put-call skew cheapened across the curve.

Meanwhile, UBS points out that Silver ETFs have now been sold so heavily in 2026 that it has erased all net buying in 2025...

Many of the factors that underpinned the multiyear rally — heightened geopolitical risks, elevated central-bank buying and lower interest rates — remain in play.

“The recent bout of volatility has called into question the value of gold as a hedge against geopolitical and market swings,” Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer at UBS Group AG, wrote in a note. 

“We believe such worries are overdone, and that the rally in gold will resume.” 

Many other banks and asset managers, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, have backed a recovery in bullion.

Underscoring resilient official demand, the Chinese central bank extended its gold buying to a 15th month in January, and Kazakhstan's central bank bought 66 tons of gold last year, becoming the world's second-largest buyer of the metal, Governor Timur Suleimenov told President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, boosting overall gold reserves to 345 tons.

Away from the big banks, retail is well and truly involved as Bloomberg reports that Indian investors poured more money into gold exchange-traded funds than equity mutual funds in January, a rare crossover that highlights sustained demand for bullion despite a record-setting surge fueled by geopolitical and monetary risks.

Net inflows into gold ETFs surged to a record 240.4 billion rupees ($2.65 billion), slightly higher than stock fund inflows of 240.3 billion rupees, according to data released Tuesday by the Association of Mutual Funds in India.

The milestone marks one of the strongest monthly endorsements of bullion by local investors in recent years.

“Investors are shifting allocations toward gold against the backdrop of a relatively lacklustre year for equity and stellar returns posted by gold in the same period,” said Nirav Karkera, head of research at Fisdom, a wealth management platform. 

Investment demand for gold will likely stay firm, at least until clarity emerges on the macroeconomic front, he added.

As Bloomberg highlights, the move reflects a wider global pattern.

Gold ETF holdings worldwide remain near a more than three-year high, even after a pullback in prices last week, as the drivers behind the blistering rally - including elevated geopolitical risk and waning confidence in sovereign bonds and currencies - remain in place.

It's not just central banks and retail that are getting (staying) bulled up again. As Goldman concludes, even longer-term investors potentially re-engaged.

As realized volatility subsided, 1 month and 3 month implied volatility also declined. 

However 1 year implied volatility continued to richen and remained near local highs. 

Thus, Goldman's Quinn concludes, long-dated call buying likely manifested.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 13:20

Foreign Demand In 3Y Auction Drops As Direct Bid Hits Record High

It is refunding week, which means we get the usual staple of 3, 10 and 30Y auctions. And moments ago, the Treasury just concluded the first of three coupon sales when it sold $58BN in 3 Year paper in a very strong auction.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 3.518%, down from 3.609% in January and the lowest yield since Sept 2025; the auction also stopped through the 3.519% When Issued b 0.1bps, the 6th consecutive stop through for the 3Y tenor.

The bid to cover was a bit disappointing at 2.624, down from 2.650 in January and below the recent average of 2.676. 

Internals were also notable, with Indirects awarded 57.15%, up from 56.50% but well below the recent average of 63.73%. And with Dealers holding 10.94%, that left Directs with a whopping 31.92%, up from 29.50% and the highest on record. This curious dynamic - declining Indirects offset by rising Directs - has been a staple for coupon auctions for the past several years now and we see it accelerating in the future, especially if foreign reserve managers rotate away from the US. 

Overall, this was a solid auction, yet one where the drop in foreign demand was notable, even if offset by record direct buyers

The lack of major surprise explains why 10Y yields barely budged after the auction prices just after 1pm ET.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 13:19

US No Longer Wants To Pursue Its Own Ukraine Peace Proposal, Kremlin Charges

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in an interview published on Monday that the US no longer wants to implement a Ukraine peace deal that it previously proposed, the latest sign that there's little chance the grinding war will come to an end anytime soon.

Lavrov claimed that the US and Russia came to an agreement on Ukraine during President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s summit in Anchorage, Alaska, back in August 2025. He didn’t elaborate on the details of the potential deal, but it's believed to involve Ukraine ceding territory it still controls in the Donbas, a condition included in a 28-point peace plan that was later drafted by the Trump administration.

via CNN

"In other words, we were told that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved. In Anchorage, we accepted the United States’ proposal. To put it straightforwardly, they proposed, and we agreed – the problem should be solved," Lavrov told TV BRICS.

"The position of the United States was important for us. Having accepted their proposals, we essentially fulfilled the task of resolving the Ukrainian issue and moving toward comprehensive, broad, mutually beneficial cooperation."

The Russian diplomat said that despite the "positive" summit, the US began imposing sanctions on Russia a few weeks later and has continued the economic pressure.

"New sanctions are imposed, attacks on tankers are staged in international waters in violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and India and other partners are discouraged from purchasing affordable Russian energy, while Europe has long prohibited such purchases, forcing them to buy American liquefied natural gas at significantly higher prices," he said.

Lavrov added that he didn’t see a "promising future in economic terms" when it comes to US-Russia relations. "Thus, in the economic sphere, the United States has effectively declared a goal of economic domination," he said.

Elsewhere in the interview, which focused on Russia’s relationship with other BRICS nations, Lavrov said the Biden administration has turned the US dollar into a "weapon," prompting Russia and other countries to reduce their reliance on the US currency.

"Under the Biden administration, the United States has taken every step to weaponize the dollar against those it considers inconvenient," he said, adding that the policies have continued under the Trump administration.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 13:00

'Off The Charts': Retail Is Buying-The-Dip In Software Stocks Like Never Before

Starting on Friday, we have seen a sudden reversal from panic-selling to panic-buying in tech stocks, which has lifted Nasdaq back above its 100DMA...

The headline-grabbing culprit for much of the pain to the downside was Software stocks (IGV as an example of an ETF that tracks the sector), which collapsed as specifically SaaS firms faced 'existential threats' from AI disruption.

That crashed Software valuations down dramatically...

And, suddenly - starting Friday morning - buyers appeared to snap up these newly cheap stocks...

Inflows into IGV - the Software ETF - have soared...

But, the question has been - who's buying?

Well now we have the answer, thanks to Vanda Research:

1M rolling net retail inflows into the iShares Software ETF (IGV) surged to a record $176mn as of close yesterday, more than double the prior peak seen during the late-2024 software drawdown.

This is one of the more aggressive episodes of retail dip-buying in tech, and especially software, that we've observed in our dataset.

Vanda also notes that Amazon ranked as the most bought US stock by retail investors, displacing Nvidia in the last few sessions.

Last Friday, AMZN recorded its largest single-day of net retail buying since Aug 2024.

We also saw decent follow-through buying throughout the session yesterday.

This is in keeping with the theme that retail investors have been opportunistically buying the dip in mega-cap tech after any earnings-driven sell-offs (also seen in MSFT, GOOGL etc.).

The question is - can retail maintain this momentum long enough to get hedgies re-engaged in Software from their near-record low exposure levels

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 12:43

DHS Shutdown Talks Stall As Democrats Reject GOP Offer, Thune Signals Stopgap May Be Needed

With Republicans demanding election integrity, and Democrats demanding ICE reform, it looks like the Department of Homeland Security may shut down again on Friday after Democratic leaders rejected a White House-backed GOP counterproposal to keep the lights on - which may require a short-term stopgap if they can't agree on something by Friday. 

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said the GOP proposal is “woefully inadequate” and shows the White House “is clearly not open to” several Democratic priorities aimed at tightening oversight of immigration enforcement.

Jeffries said the offer failed to address requirements for judicial warrants, detention center standards, independent investigations and excessive-force rules. Asked whether the administration would support a ban on federal agents wearing masks, Jeffries said, “That’s an open question.”

“They don’t appear to be open to … ensuring that ICE agents are identifiable in a manner consistent with every other law enforcement agency in the country,” Jeffries said, according to Politico. 

According to the Department of Homeland Security, a government shutdown would make the country less secure, affecting TSA, FEMA, ICE, and Border Patrol operations. Acting ICE Director Lyons said that task forces targeting terrorism and transnational crime would be hit hardest. 

According to Polymarket, there's currently a 74% chance of a shutdown by Saturday. 

Jeffries’ comments followed a late Monday joint statement with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), in which the two Democrats criticized the GOP response as lacking both legislative text and meaningful detail.

“The initial GOP response is both incomplete and insufficient in terms of addressing the concerns Americans have about ICE’s lawless conduct,” the leaders said. “Democrats await additional detail and text.”

The White House counteroffer on DHS funding is woefully inadequate.

Try again. pic.twitter.com/k5JIUjXLpW

— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) February 10, 2026

Punchbowl News asked Jeffries about whether he things Republicans are serious about cutting a deal, to which he replied:

“It’s clear to me that House, Senate Republicans and the White House, they’re all on the run. These people are falling apart. They’re losing election after election. They’ve lost the public. Donald Trump is at historically low approval ratings … And so our view is dramatic reform is necessary with respect to DHS before a funding bill moves forward.”

Thune keeps CR on the table - conditionally

Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to keep negotiations alive while acknowledging the clock is running out. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said Tuesday that negotiations aren't dead, but GOP leadership is contemplating next steps if talks don’t advance quickly.

“There are things I think on probably both sides that are non-negotiables,” Thune said. “But I do think there are a number of things in the range of common ground.”

Thune said Republicans may begin laying procedural groundwork for a short-term stopgap known as a continuing resolution (CR) - framing it as a fallback option, not a foregone conclusion - if negotiations fail to produce an agreement in time. Any shutdown-averting measure would require support from at least seven Senate Democrats, he added.

The existing funding patch for DHS expires Friday. Without action, the department, which employs more than 260,000 people, would face a partial shutdown.

On the Senate floor, Schumer struck a more measured tone than Jeffries, saying Democrats “need to see more from Republicans very soon.”

“What Democrats propose is the definition of common sense,” Schumer said. “We simply want ICE to follow the same standards that most law enforcement agencies across America already follow.”

Key demands, limited overlap

While the GOP counteroffer has not been publicly detailed. But White House allies have indicated that at least one Democratic demand - requiring federal law enforcement officers to obtain judicial warrants before entering private property - is not under consideration.

Other proposals, including mask prohibitions, ID display requirements and restrictions on where ICE agents can operate, would require significant Democratic concessions to gain administration support, according to people close to the White House.

Still, the exchange of offers has given GOP leaders cautious optimism that talks could continue - particularly as senators hope to leave Washington by Thursday for the Munich Security Conference and other overseas delegations.

“It depends on whether we’re making progress or not,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) said Monday. “We’ve got some time. Hopefully people will be working to try and get something done.”

The length of any short-term funding patch, if needed, remains unresolved. GOP appropriators have pushed for at least a two-week extension, though Thune said the duration “will have to be negotiated.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/10/2026 - 12:20