Et Tu, Indonesia!

As the squeeze continues on China's energy supply (and Xi has started to lash out here and here), we suspect the next words out of the Chinese leader's mouth (if he spoke Latin) will be "...et tu, Indonesia!"

As Stephen Green writes at PJMedia, it might have seemed like one of those dry, bureaucratic, almost meaningless announcements on Monday, when War Secretary Pete Hegseth posted on X that the U.S. and Indonesia "are elevating our relationship to a Major Defense Cooperation Partnership." 

This arrangement “will explore mutually agreed cutting-edge initiatives, including co-developing sophisticated asymmetric capabilities pioneering next-generation defense technologies in the maritime, subsurface, and autonomous systems domains, and cooperating on maintenance, repair, and overhaul support to improve operational readiness.”

In parallel, it was reported that “US, Indonesia discuss allowing US military overflight in Indonesian airspace”, which refers to a “preliminary draft that is being discussed internally” right now, but the writing is on the wall that the US aims to leverage their MDCP to this end.

But a Major Defense Cooperation Partnership is kind of a big deal - and it's aimed directly at China's oil imports.

China's difficulties begin in the Strait of Hormuz, but they peak at Malacca. 

Nearly two-thirds of China’s imports - largely the raw materials that keep its export machine humming - and a whopping 80% of its energy imports pass through Indonesia’s Strait of Malacca.

As Andrew Korybko notes, the grand strategic goal being pursued is Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby’s “Strategy of Denial”.

The gist is that the US must do its utmost to prevent Chinese hegemony in Asia, in furtherance of which it’s indirectly controlling or cutting off Chinese resource imports (Venezuela and Iran) and seeking control over global chokepoints (Hormuz, Malacca, and the Panama Canal), with everything accelerating ahead of Trump’s trip to China from 14-15 May.

Trump hopes that this will coerce Xi into a lopsided trade deal.

"The game is not to control Venezuela and Iran to choke China..." Zoltan Pozsar of advisory firm Ex Uno Plures wrote in a March note.

And you might ask why Trump is squeezing China. Well, as Pozsar pointed out, "The aim is not to deny energy to China. The aim is to level the playing field between the two countries. To be blunt, in ways I couldn't be at Credit Suisse: if you fuck me on rare earths, I fuck you on energy."

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 13:20

US Carrier Takes Long Route To Gulf To Avoid Bab el-Mandab Strait And Houthis

By Mallory Shelbourne of USNI News

Aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) is operating off the coast of Namibia, as it sails around the African continent and is set to join a growing naval force in the Arabian Sea amid a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, USNI News has learned.

USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) transits the Atlantic Ocean, Feb. 15, 2026. US Navy photo

Bush, which deployed at the end of March, did not sail through the Strait of Gibraltar and into the Mediterranean Sea, a typical transit for East Coast-based carriers headed to the Middle East. The carrier and its escorts – which include USS Donald Cook (DDG-75), USS Mason (DDG-87) and USS Ross (DDG-71) – are instead sailing around Africa, two defense officials confirmed to USNI News on Monday. Supply-class fast oiler USNS Arctic (TAOE-8) is also operating with the Bush Carrier Strike Group.

The path around Africa allows the carrier and its escorts to avoid transiting the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb, which were both hubs of activity for the Houthis in their drone and missile attacks on U.S. and commercial shipping in 2024 and 2025.

Bush’s transit around Africa comes as the U.S. initiates a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following a Sunday announcement from President Donald Trump.

U.S. Central Command subsequently issued a statement explaining how U.S. forces would execute a blockade of the crucial waterway that has been a main flashpoint since the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran at the end of February.

“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” reads the Sunday CENTCOM statement. “CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

A Monday notice issued to mariners, obtained by USNI News, said a so-called “grace period” that would allow neutral ships at Iranian ports to leave ended at 10 a.m. Eastern time Monday.

“Following this time, any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, diversion, and capture,” reads the notice.

“Neutral vessels may still be subject to the right of visit and search to determine the presence of contraband cargo,” the notice continues. “Humanitarian shipments including food, medical supplies, and other goods essential for survival of the civilian populations will be permitted, subject to inspection.”

In a Monday appearance at the Atlantic Council, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle spoke about the considerations for a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, including the risk of mines, how contested the airspace is and whether allies and partners join in the blockade.

“I mean, this is a major undertaking that would have to take place here to do this effectively,” Caudle said. “And of course all that’s bounded by a legal structure – a ‘rules of engagement,’ the legal aspects of this, having good firm legal structure that underwrites the ability to enforce a blockade.”

A U.S. carrier has not transited the Bab el-Mandeb since USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) sailed through the strait in December 2023, shortly after the Houthis started their campaign of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. U.S. destroyers that transited the Bab el-Mandeb in recent years have come under sustained attacks from Houthi forces.

Before Trump announced the blockade, two U.S. guided-missile destroyers sailed through the Strait of Hormuz and briefly operated in the Persian Gulf on Saturday, several days after the Trump administration announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran while American and Iranian officials continued negotiations.

USS Frank E. Petersen (DDG-121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) entered the strait to start “setting conditions for clearing mines,” USNI News reported at the time. The talks between Iran and the U.S. fell apart late Saturday, according to reports.

The Japan-based Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group – which includes big-deck amphibious warship USS Tripoli (LHA-7), amphibious transport dock USS New Orleans (LPD-18) and dock landing ship USS Rushmore (LSD-47) – is currently operating in the Arabian Sea.

The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group – featuring USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), USS Spruance (DDG-111) and Petersen – is also in the Arabian Sea. There are also seven independently-deployed guided-missile destroyers operating in the waters.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 13:00

La Marxista: Mamdani Pledges To Open First City-Run Store With Projected $30 Million Initial Cost

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Mayor Zohran Mamdani used his “First 100 Days” speech this week to announce that he has kept his promise to create a chain of city-run stores . . . by pledging to open one store sometime “next year.” According to the New York Post, the city is planning to make an East Harlem location the first store at a cost of $30 million. It will be located in La Marqueta near Park Avenue.

It is not clear if La Marqueta will  be renamed La Marxista, but it will follow a long line of failed state-operated and city-operated stores.

Chicago’s mayor, Brandon Johnson, also pledged such city-run stores.

It is notable that the stores received such emphasis by Mamdani.

It is not difficult to set up a grocery store, particularly when you run the city that approves permits and compliance conditions.

It is not even difficult to set up a money-losing store as long as you have a city budget to pay for it.

It is far more difficult to set up an independently sustainable store.

In my book, “Rage and the Republic,” I discuss the rise of support for socialism and communism among young citizens who have no experience or memory with the failures of such systems in the 20th Century. I specifically discuss Mamdani and his policies. These are calls that are likely to increase with the emerging new economy:

With the rise of American socialism, there are new calls for state subsidies and even the establishment of state-run grocery stores in places like Chicago. Past efforts have been colossal failures, including the still-ongoing effort in Kansas City. Over seven years, KC Sun Fresh is gushing money with losses in 2024 at $885,000. The millions lost on this store are on top of the $17 million that the city paid to buy the entire strip mall. By 2025, many of the shelves were entirely bare, while private grocery stores were successfully operating in the area. Despite these failures, there are new calls in other states to create their own state-owned stores. In New York City, socialist mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani was heralded for his campaign to open up “government-owned, government-operated grocery stores” in 2025. There are also calls to subsidize key industries that are becoming less competitive in the global market—an effort that is unlikely to succeed as jobs are lost to cheap labor markets or automation.

Since the city already owns La Marqueta, it can avoid paying rent.

However, it will lose any rent that could be earned by renting the property to a business.

Mamdani pledged that these will be “stores where prices are fair, where workers are treated with dignity, and where New Yorkers can actually afford to shop at our stores…Eggs will be cheaper, bread will be cheaper, grocery shopping will no longer be an unsolvable equation.”

Of course, that has not worked out that way in other cities.

Governments are not known to be either efficient or competitive. The start-up costs of this first store will consume almost half of the budget for the original cost estimate for all five stores.

Soon, New Yorkers will be subsidizing grocery stores to artificially support the myth of socialism.

In the Soviet Union, state-run grocery stores were the subject of gallows humor. The “reimagining” of grocery stores left shelves bare with only imagined essential products. The most widely told joke spread just before the fall of the Soviet Union:

A man walks into a shop. He asks the clerk, “You don’t have any meat?” The clerk says, “No, here we don’t have any fish. The shop that doesn’t have any meat is across the street.”

As Mamdani demands a 10% property tax to fund his promises of free buses and other socialist programs, he is returning to the same socialist script. Of course, as the University of Chicago’s Milton Friedman noted, “If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 12:20

DEI Practices Reduce Productivity, Cost $94 Billion Annually: White House Economic Report

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

Diversity, equity, and inclusion practices negatively impacted the U.S. economy, according to the 2026 White House Economic Report released April 13. 

Researchers calculated that DEI policies reduced output and lowered the country’s gross domestic product by about $94 billion each year, amounting to approximately $1,160 per year for families with two working adults. 

“These estimates imply that DEI promotion has led to inefficient management, raising the cost of doing business,” the report reads.

“These costs lead the companies practicing DEI to hire fewer people and pay their workers less.” 

President Donald Trump commissioned the report, released by the White House Council of Economic Advisers. 

DEI policies “actively encouraged” employment discrimination, according to the report, which cited fourfold growth in the percentage of minorities holding management positions between 2016 and 2023. 

During the same period, industries that adopted DEI protocols were 2.7 percent less productive than industries that avoided the cultural shift. 

The president announced soon after taking office for a second time that his administration was targeting what he said are discriminatory hiring practices. 

“We’ve ended the tyranny of so-called diversity, equity, and inclusion policies all across the entire federal government and indeed the private sector and our military, and our country will be woke no longer,” Trump said when he addressed a joint session of Congress in March 2025. 

“We believe that whether you are a doctor, an accountant, a lawyer, or an air traffic controller, you should be hired and promoted based on skill and competence, not race or gender.” 

President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act into law in 1964, thus outlawing employment discrimination based on race, color, gender, religion, or national origin. 

Human resources departments across the country generally abided by the laws to avoid legal action, but things began to change approximately 10 years ago when corporate offices began adopting new diversity-related hiring agendas. 

President Joe Biden accelerated DEI practices with executive orders implementing the programs in the military and across the federal government’s various agencies and departments. 

Biden directed government agencies to “seek opportunities to establish a position of chief diversity officer or diversity and inclusion officer, ... [and] ensure that all Federal employees have their respective gender identities accurately reflected and identified in the workplace,” among other changes. 

Agencies were required to submit “Equity Action Plans” outlining steps to further diversify staff. 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen oversaw the establishment of an Equity Hub and Advisory Committee on Racial Equality, spending millions of dollars on DEI consulting services in the process and redirecting billions of dollars in federal funding to “benefit specific racial groups,” according to the report. 

Studies show references to DEI programs exploded during the 2020s, with many corporations mentioning the policies during earnings calls, which cited analyses showing the number of DEI-related jobs quadrupled between 2017 and 2022. 

Trump rescinded the orders with a series of executive actions in January 2025. 

“The public release of these plans demonstrated immense public waste and shameful discrimination. That ends today,” the president wrote in one order. “Americans deserve a government committed to serving every person with equal dignity and respect, and to expending precious taxpayer resources only on making America great.” 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 11:40

China Rejects 'Baseless Smear' It's Sending Weapons To Iran After Trump Warned Of 'Big Problems'

China has dismissed reports that it supplied or plans to supply weapons to Iran as "baseless smears," after multiple outlets cited US intelligence accusing Beijing of potentially entering the war indirectly.

"China has always adopted a cautious and responsible attitude towards the export of military items, implementing strict controls in accordance with its own export control laws and regulations and its international obligations. We oppose baseless smears or malicious association," Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated at a regular briefing on Monday.

Source: Alma

Reports first published by CNN and later cited by Reuters and The New York Times said US intelligence assesses that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within weeks, citing three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments.

CNN reported indications that Beijing is working to route the shipments through third countries to conceal their origin. The report said China is preparing to transfer shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems known as MANPADs, while citing unnamed sources.

A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington also addressed the claims, seeking to make clear that Beijing "has never provided weapons to any party to the conflict" and urged the United States to avoid leveling such baseless charges.

This accusation first surfaced shortly before US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad collapsed, and was followed by an escalation in tensions as Washington imposed a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier, over the weekend, when he was asked by reporters about reports that China is sending the weapons, the president responded that "if China does that, China will have big problems, OK?"

Recall too that in early April an American pilot whose F-15 jet was shot down over Iran was rescued after evading capture for more than a day in a dramatic special forces raid into Iran - this is at least according to the official story anyway.

It's widely believed that this shootdown was the result of Iranians deploying MANPADs or other smaller, mobile anti-air defense system. It came after both the US and Israel declared total air superiority and freedom of action over Iran's skies.

Amid China's denials and the ongoing speculation, what is for sure is that Russia and Iran have military ties which run deeper, given especially they are running a joint Shahed drone program related to the Ukraine war. Western mainstream media has also been eager to true and tie 'rogue' Beijing in with some kind of Tehran-Moscow-Beijing nexus.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 11:22

Treasury Rushes To Access Anthropic 'Mythos' AI After Warning It Can Hack "Every Major Operating System"

The US Treasury Department’s technology team is actively seeking access to Anthropic PBC’s highly restricted Mythos AI model so it can begin hunting for software vulnerabilities, according to a person familiar with the situation cited by Bloomberg. 

Illustration via WIRED

Treasury Chief Information Officer Sam Corcos briefed the department’s cybersecurity team on the technology last week and has directed efforts to gain access to the model "as soon as this week."

The request comes days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summoned top Wall Street CEOs to an urgent meeting at Treasury headquarters. Executives were warned that Mythos and similar frontier AI models could usher in a new era of heightened cyber risk. Anthropic itself has cautioned that the model may be capable of powering sophisticated cyberattacks unless companies proactively test it against their own systems and build defenses ahead of any wider release.

At the meeting, bank leaders were strongly urged to take the model seriously and use it internally to detect vulnerabilities.

What Is Mythos and Why the Restrictions?

Anthropic introduced Mythos (also referred to as Claude Mythos Preview) as part of its new Project Glasswing initiative. In internal testing, the model demonstrated extraordinary offensive cybersecurity capabilities: it was able to identify and exploit vulnerabilities “in every major operating system and every major web browser when directed by a user to do so.” In one documented case, it wrote a web browser exploit that successfully chained together four separate vulnerabilities.

Project Glasswing brings together Amazon Web Services (AWS), Apple, Broadcom, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Google, JPMorganChase, the Linux Foundation, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Palo Alto Networks to address growing concerns within the cybersecurity community that AI models are now capable of discovering and exploiting vulnerabilities at a faster pace than humans can keep up with.

...

According to the post on Anthropic’s website, the model’s strong agentic coding and reasoning skills enable it to uncover and exploit security flaws when directed by the user that have existed for years, even decades without detection. Benchmarking results cited by the company suggest a notable performance gap between Mythos Preview and its previous models in cybersecurity-related tasks. -cxtoday.com

What Mythos Has Discovered: Key Findings from Red Team Testing

In controlled testing against real codebases in isolated containers, the model autonomously identified thousands of zero-day vulnerabilities across every major operating system and every major web browser. The testing used an agentic workflow: file prioritization based on a 5-tier vulnerability likelihood ranking, parallel Claude Code invocations, and secondary validation for severity and exploitability.

Standout Zero-Day Discoveries Include:

• 27-year-old remote crash vulnerability in OpenBSD (TCP SACK processing): An integer overflow in signed TCP sequence number comparison that enables a null-pointer dereference and remote denial-of-service against any responding host. The bug had survived decades of manual code review and extensive fuzzing campaigns.
• 16-year-old bug in FFmpeg (H.264 parser): A slice number collision that triggers an out-of-bounds heap write when processing crafted frames with 65,536+ slices. The vulnerability originated in 2003, became exploitable after a 2010 refactor, and had evaded detection despite automated testing tools hitting the vulnerable path five million times.
• 17-year-old FreeBSD NFS Remote Code Execution (CVE-2026-4747): A stack buffer overflow in RPCSEC_GSS authentication (96-byte buffer for 304-byte input) combined with NFSv4 information disclosure. Mythos autonomously constructed a 20-gadget ROP chain split across six sequential RPC requests — a feat the prior model (Claude Opus 4.6) could achieve only with significant human guidance.

Firefox JavaScript Engine Testing Results were especially dramatic:

• Claude Opus 4.6: Developed only 2 working exploits out of several hundred attempts.
• Mythos Preview: Developed 181 working exploits and achieved register control in 29 additional cases.

OSS-Fuzz Results showed a similar leap:

• Mythos generated 595 tier-1/2 crashes (plus several tier-3–5), including multiple tier-5 control-flow hijacks (full arbitrary code execution) on fully patched targets.

These discoveries were achieved at remarkably low cost - many individual zero-day runs cost under $50, with full OpenBSD testing campaigns under $20,000 and Linux kernel N-day exploits under $2,000 each.

Because of the dual-use risks, Anthropic has not released Mythos to the public. Instead, it is being provided on a tightly limited basis through Project Glasswing to a select group of vetted organizations - including major tech companies, cybersecurity firms, JPMorgan Chase, and the Linux Foundation - for defensive purposes only (scanning their own systems to find and patch flaws before attackers can exploit them). Anthropic has committed up to $100 million in usage credits to support these efforts.

Several major financial institutions have already begun internal testing:

• JPMorgan Chase was publicly named as part of Project Glasswing.
• Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley have also gained access or are in the process, according to people familiar with the matter.

The company stated in its Project Glasswing announcement that it has been in “ongoing discussions” with government officials about the model and is “ready to work with local, state, and federal representatives.”

Pentagon Supply-Chain Risk Designation

The Treasury’s push for access is notable because the Pentagon formally designated Anthropic a US supply-chain risk earlier this year following a dispute over how the company’s AI technology could be used by the military. The Defense Department gave Anthropic a six-month window to transition its services to another provider. Anthropic is actively fighting the designation in federal court.

Despite this, Corcos - who previously encouraged the use of Anthropic’s Claude AI tools inside Treasury before the Pentagon label - is now driving the department’s effort to investigate Mythos. 

* * *

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 10:40

With Private Credit We See The Credit Cycle Hasn't Been Repealed

Authored by Jay Rogers via RealClearMarkets.com,

Something cracked in private credit this month, and the men who manage systemic risk for a living are saying so.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon's just-released 2025 annual shareholder letter warns that concerns about private credit - including "underwriting quality or exposure to software companies that may be negatively affected by AI" - are "a reminder that the credit cycle has not been repealed." His predecessor Lloyd Blankfein went further on Bloomberg's Big Take podcast: "I don't feel the storm, but the horses are starting to whinny in the corral." JPMorgan has already voted with its balance sheet, marking down software company loans held as collateral by private credit funds and reducing borrowing capacity for those funds, before any actual defaults. "I'm shocked that people are shocked," said JPMorgan's Troy Rohrbaugh.

The backdrop is three major liquidity failures in the space of six weeks. Blackstone's $82 billion BCRED faced record redemption requests of $3.7 billion (7.9% of assets) and had to inject $400 million of its own capital to honor them. BlackRock gated its $26 billion HLEND after receiving withdrawal requests of 9.3% of NAV. Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions in OBDC II and sold $1.4 billion in loans to fund an orderly exit. Blue Owl shares have since fallen roughly 40% year-to-date.

These are not random liquidity events. They are the structural consequence of a capital concentration problem I have been watching build for a decade. In 2025 alone, the ten largest private credit funds captured nearly 46% of all capital raised, the highest concentration in over a decade. That tidal wave of capital forces mega-platforms into ever-larger deals, typically companies with $200 million or more in EBITDA, where they compete head-to-head with broadly syndicated loan syndicates and public high-yield. The result is spread compression, yield erosion, and the complete elimination of the pricing advantages that private credit was supposed to offer.

The AI disruption angle makes the mega-fund problem worse. Software represents roughly 25% of all private credit loans. The sector's underwriting assumptions - stable recurring revenue, high switching costs, durable cash flows - are precisely what AI tooling is actively challenging. Fitch's privately monitored ratings portfolio posted a record 9.2% default rate in 2025, up from 8.1% in 2024, with companies below $25 million EBITDA posting a 15.8% default rate. When software loan valuations get marked to reflect AI disruption reality, the leverage stack that amplified returns on the way up will amplify losses on the way down.

Contrast this with the lower middle market. Middle-market direct-lending spreads have stabilized in the 500–550 bps range over SOFR, carrying a 100–150 bps premium to syndicated markets. Q3 2025 BDC data showed all-in yields still at 9.76% after 150 bps of rate cuts, with trailing one-year realized losses of just 0.66%. These are smaller companies with less AI disruption exposure, stronger covenants, bilateral lender relationships, and managers who can still walk away from a bad deal. Preqin return dispersion data shows top-quartile North America direct-lending IRRs outpacing medians at an increasing rate, precisely because scale-driven managers are chasing volume over selectivity.

Blankfein's warning about retail exposure to private credit is the right one to heed. The $1.8 trillion private credit market has now reached the approximate size of the subprime mortgage market at its 2007 peak. The push by both Wall Street and the Trump administration to route this exposure through 401(k) plans, at the precise moment the cycle is turning, is a risk worth naming clearly.

For allocators, the path forward is clear.

Avoid the liquidity mismatch of retail evergreen vehicles - the redemption crises of early 2026 were structural, not idiosyncratic. Avoid software-heavy direct lending portfolios until the AI disruption cycle is fully repriced. Favor closed-end, institutional-grade mid-market funds with experienced managers who still underwrite as if it is their own capital. The returns are still there in private credit, just are not where the most capital went.

Private credit is not broken. The credit cycle has not been repealed. It has merely been deferred - and Goldman's Solomon, JPMorgan's Rohrbaugh, and Blankfein's corral metaphor are all pointing at the same door.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 10:20

Fill 'er Up: Record Armada Of Tankers Bound For US Gulf To Load Oil

An unusually large number of crude oil tankers on the open seas has the American Gulf coast as a destination as the ships are redirected to load cargoes bound for markets around the world already experiencing shortages.

As Alton Wallace writes at The Center Square, second-term Republican President Donald Trump said Saturday on social media that “massive numbers” of “completely empty” oil tankers are en route to the United States to purchase American energy.

“Foreign buyers are voting with their ships: American energy means stability, strength, and freedom from Middle East blackmail,” the president posted on Monday.

Shipping data posted by maritime intelligence company Windward shows 171 crude tankers are bound for the U.S. Gulf to load crude oil cargoes, which compares with about 110 in a typical month.

The surging vessel traffic comes as nations throughout Europe and Asia grapple to secure energy supplies and regional prices skyrocket. Germany is providing emergency fuel relief to its citizens while officials in the Philippines recently declared a national energy emergency as the world looks increasingly to the U.S. to replenish war-starved oil and gas markets.

"Hundreds of supertankers, the kind that carry two million barrels each, are currently racing toward the US Gulf Coast from every direction, Atlantic, Indian Ocean, around Africa, the scenic route, the 'we were heading to Saudi Arabia but never mind' route," Jesús Enrique Rosas noted this weekend.

Oil markets research firm Kpler estimates U.S. crude oil exports in April will reach 5.2 million barrels per day, up about one-third from 3.9 million barrels a day in March, the Financial Times reported last week.

North Carolina-based Kpler analyst Matt Smith described the great volume of incoming ships as an “armada of tankers heading this way.”

Trump on Saturday remarked that the U.S. oil output is more than the combined total of Saudi Arabia and Russia, the next two largest producers, and the president promised a “quick turnaround” for the arriving fleet.

Shipping data shows approximately 28 very large crude carriers, which can hold about 2 million barrels of oil, have been contracted to load U.S. crude in May compared to a monthly average of just five in a typical month, according to Kpler.

Trump shared a post on Saturday by oil market researcher Rory Johnston that read “very cool seeing the wave of empty tankers heading to the U.S. to pick up some desperately needed crude for Hormuz-starved markets,” to which the president responded, “Great!!!”

"The more Iran leans on Hormuz, the faster global energy flows reroute around it. Over time, that erodes Tehran’s leverage and cuts into its long-term power," Osint613 posted Sunday.

America and Israel on Feb. 28 launched military strikes against Iran. The Iranians, with control of the Strait of Hormuz, has stymied an otherwise one-sided confrontation. An 11th-hour ceasefire to last two weeks was announced Tuesday.

As the shipping logjam continues, Windward’s daily intelligence report on Monday shows 732 vessels carrying oil, gas, refined fuels, and other fossil fuels-based products await transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

To avoid the volatile region, many of these vessels are now rounding the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa – a detour that bypasses the Suez Canal but adds up to 15 days of travel time to reach American docks.

In March, Port of Houston officials announced completion of the Project 11 channel widening project, which eliminated longstanding nighttime vessel movement restrictions in place for more than a century, allowing large vessels to safely transit the channel without waiting for daylight.

Finally, as Stephen Green explains at PJMedia.com, there may be a strategy here...

Supporters and critics alike - the honest critics, that is, who deserve protection under the Endangered Species Act - understand that Trump acts as a chaos agent. He knows the end result he wants, even if sometimes only broadly defined as "Make America Great Again." The established rules and methods don't allow for that, so Trump is happy to blow things up (sometimes literally), and see what can be rebuilt from the pieces.

The thing about that Persian Gulf stranglehold is that, like the Sword of Damocles, it's most effective before it's used. Now that Tehran has tried (and only partly and temporarily succeeded) in closing the Strait of Hormuz, "About the only escalation option the IRGC has is to renew its missile and drone attacks on neighboring Gulf states," as my Hot Air colleague Ed Morrissey put it on Monday. But "Trump has an escalation for that as well: Bridge and Power Plant Day. Let's see how long it takes for Iran to provoke it."

Looking at the bigger picture, Rosas also wrote: "Iran played its biggest card and the main result is that the United States became the world's emergency gas station and China's cheap energy subsidy evaporated. The spice — er, oil — must flow. But Trump rewrote the rulebook about where it flows from."

But, as Andrew Moran writes at Liberty Nation, there is a tricky balancing act here...

On the one hand, the US economy is far more insulated from global oil shocks than it was during the Iraq War, as it is a net petroleum exporter.

The March, April, and May trade data, to be released later this summer and early fall, should yield fascinating economic insights into the Iranian conflict.

On the other hand, consumers still bear the brunt of higher gas prices.

Private-sector data suggest that consumers continued to shop in March, even after excluding gasoline station transactions. Whether they can keep their wallets open this spring, even with handsome windfalls from the One Big Beautiful Bill’s tax refunds, will be a wild card for GDP numbers.

In the end, will this be a winning message for November’s midterm elections? It will be challenging to convince voters of a grand 4D chess scheme involving America’s oil and military prowess.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 10:00

JPM Stock Fizzles Despite Blowout Quarter As Key Forecast Cut

One day after Goldman Sachs reported its highest profit in 5 years (despite an ugly miss in FICC revenues), this morning JPMorgan impressed with just as solid results, when it reported that its Q1 profits rose 13% as the bank benefited from soaring market volatility and frantic trading amid the war with Iran and the US military operation in Venezuela.

The largest US bank reported net income of $16.5bn, beating analyst estimates of a $15.2bn print, up from $14.6bn a year ago and the bank’s second-best quarter ever. Its best quarter remains the $18.1bn the bank earned in the second quarter of 2024 when JPMorgan benefited from a one-off gain from the sale of its stake in Visa. 

One-upping Goldman, JPM reported the best quarter for trading in the bank’s history, boosted by the swings in equity and fixed income markets caused by geopolitical shocks. And unlike Goldman, JPM's FICC also came in much stronger than expected; in fact at $7.1bn it was the second biggest FICC revenue on record.  

The bank reported total trading revenues of $11.6bn, up 20% from the first quarter a year ago, which is a seasonally strong period for the business. It was the highest figure on record for the bank, beating its previous record from 2020.

Revenues from FICC rose 21% to $7.1bn, and beating estimates of $6.7bn; As we reported yesterday, Rival Goldman Sachs on Monday fell far short of what investors were anticipating from its fixed-income business. JPMorgan’s equities trading revenues also rose more than expected, up 17.5% to $4.5bn, and above estimates of $4.31bn. 

Investment-banking fees of $2.88 billion also beat analysts’ expectations of $2.6 billion: this was JPM's best quarter for the business since the end of 2021. It just beat the $2.8 bilion reported by rival Goldman Sachs on Monday, but Goldman’s year-on-year increase was higher at nearly 50%. Dealmakers advising on mergers and acquisitions were the standout, notching an 82% jump to $1.27 billion. Equity underwriting also rose more than expected to $472 million, while a 7% drop in debt-underwriting fees came in line with estimates.  

Here is the top highlights from the company's Q1 results, which also handily beat expectations:

• Adjusted revenue $50.54 billion, beating estimates $49.26 billion
  • FICC sales & trading revenue $7.08 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $6.65 billion
  • Equities sales & trading revenue $4.48 billion, +17.5% y/y, beating estimates $4.31 billion
  • Investment banking revenue $3.14 billion, +38% y/y, beating estimate $2.73 billion
    • Advisory revenue $1.27 billion, +82% y/y, beating estimate $1.01 billion
    • Equity underwriting rev. $472 million, +46% y/y, beating estimate $453.2 million
    • Debt underwriting rev. $1.15 billion, -6.9% y/y, matching estimate $1.15 billion

JPM also reported managed Net Interest Income (ex. Markets) of $25.48BN, up 9% YoY, and above estimates of $25.18BN, driven by higher deposit balances, as well as higher revolving balances in Card Services, predominantly offset by the impact of lower rates. Costs, meanwhile, were $26.9 billion in the quarter, higher than expected. JPMorgan said in February that it expects to spend about $105 billion this year, excluding legal expenses, and it reaffirmed that figure Tuesday.

Commenting on the quarter, the bank's CEO Jamie Dimon said the firm delivered strong results in 1Q and consumer spending was still strong, businesses were healthy and the US economy “remained resilient”.

“Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Fed’s asset purchases,” Dimon said in a statement alongside the bank’s earnings. 

“At the same time, there is an increasingly complex set of risks — such as geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. “While we cannot predict how these risks and uncertainties will ultimately play out, they are significant and reinforce why we prepare the Firm for a wide range of environments,” he said

As usual, JPM paraded with its "fortress balance sheet"...

... with the following key updates for Q1:

• Net yield on interest-earning assets 2.5%, estimate 2.57%
• Standardized CET1 ratio 14.3%
• Managed overhead ratio 53%, estimate 52.8%
• Return on equity 19%, estimate 17.3%
• Return on tangible common equity 23%, estimate 20.7%
• Assets under management $4.79 trillion, estimate $4.89 trillion
• Tangible book value per share $108.87, estimate $109.28
• Book value per share $128.38, estimate $129.35
• Cash and due from banks $22.04 billion, estimate $21.74 billion
• Loans $1.50 trillion, below estimates of $1.5 trillion
• Total deposits $2.68 trillion, above estimates of $2.58 trillion
• Provision for credit losses $2.51 billion
• Net charge-offs $2.32 billion, below estimate $2.63 billion

And some other notable highlights from the quarter: 

• Compensation expenses $15.34 billion, estimate $15.04 billion
• Non-interest expenses $26.85 billion, estimate $26.03 billion

Of note, JPMorgan increased the reserves set aside for potentially soured loans by only $191 million in the first quarter, less than analysts expected. That included a net build for the wholesale side, partially offset by a net release in consumer. With JPMorgan's net charge offs coming in below estimates, it appears that JPM was positioned well for the ongoing private credit meltdown.

“In the great scheme of things, private credit probably does not present a systemic risk,” Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders earlier this month. “When we have a credit cycle, which will happen one day, losses on all leveraged lending in general will be higher than expected, relative to the environment. This is because credit standards have been modestly weakening pretty much across the board.”

The $1.8 trillion private-credit industry has been a focal point amid mounting concern that redemption requests and fears over the impact of artificial intelligence will weigh on the sector. For banks, that’s translated to investor questions about their lending to the industry. Earlier this year, JPMorgan marked down the value of certain loans that serve as collateral against the bank’s loans to private-credit funds. 

Jamie Dimon said losses in private credit will have to be “very large” before banks like JPMorgan Chase face a significant hit from it. “You'll have very large losses in private credit before, at least it looks like, banks can get hit or something like that,” Dimon told analysts. “So it doesn't mean you won't feel some stress and strain, and you might have to do something about it. But I’m not particularly worried about it. I'd be more worried about when there's a credit cycle, how's that going to filter through the whole system.”

JPM CFO Jeremy Barnum said the bank is “reasonably comfortable” with its exposure to private credit, but cautioned that losses will increase if the credit cycle turns. He told reporters that "we’re reasonably comfortable with our exposure. But obviously, if you see a big credit cycle with significant increase in default rates, you’re going to see some losses across the whole system, including banks. And that’s just part of the business."

Wealthy investors attempted to pull more than $20bn from private credit funds in the first quarter, underscoring the growing strain on an asset class that had boomed into a dominant force on Wall Street.

But while its earnings were solid across the board, one reason why JPM stock dipped in kneejerk reaction and was currently unchanged is that the bank trimmed its forecast for net interest income for 2026. JPMorgan said it expected net interest income of about $103bn this year, down from the $104.5bn it forecast in February. Net interest income was almost $96bn in 2025. Excluding lending in its trading division, JPMorgan left unchanged its guidance for net interest income this year of around $95bn. 

Shares traded about 3% lower in the immediate aftermath of JPMorgan’s results announcement, but recovered some of their losses to trade less than 1% below Monday’s close.

Full earnings presentation below (pdf link)

JPM Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 09:29

United CEO Pitches Trump On American Tie-Up To Build Highly Competitive Global Carrier

A Reuters report stated that United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby "pitched" a merger with American Airlines during a recent meeting with President Trump. Shares of both carriers rose in premarket trading in New York following the report.

Two sources told the outlet that merger discussions took place during a February 25 White House meeting with Trump about the future of Dulles Airport, just three days before the U.S.-Iran conflict sent jet fuel prices skyrocketing.

Kirby said that a combined United-American airline would be better positioned to compete internationally. He said that the merger of the two carriers would strengthen U.S. competitiveness globally.

It is unclear whether United made a formal approach to American or whether negotiations were underway, but one thing is certain: most domestic carriers, except Delta Air Lines, have been hit by soaring jet fuel costs.

Wells Fargo analyst Christian Wetherbee noted, "This idea furthers our belief that the fuel shock presents an opportunity for United and Delta to emerge better positioned, potentially suggesting upside to out-year estimates."

Wetherbee said a potential merger between United and American could be too large, as the combined carrier would control around 40% of domestic capacity without divestitures.

As an alternative, Wetherbee suggested JetBlue could emerge as a smaller, more realistic target if American rejected United, giving United valuable assets in New York and Florida with less regulatory fallout.

Reuters spoke with antitrust lawyer Seth Bloom, who said a United-American merger would be unlikely to clear regulatory hurdles.

"The administration has said it really cares about the issues that affect the consumer's pocketbook, and this would give the airlines more pricing power," Bloom said.

American traded up 9% in premarket, while United was up around 2%. The broader S&P 500 Passenger Airline Index is down 7.5% year to date amid the jet-fuel shock stemming from the Middle East conflict.

In mid-March, UBS analyst Atul Maheswari asked whether a possible bottom had formed in airline stocks. Read the note here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 09:00

Xi Says "Global Order Crumbling Into Disarray" As Trump Turns Up Pressure Campaign On China

President Trump's four-and-a-half-month crusade across the Western Hemisphere, and now into the Middle East, increasingly looks like a massive blitz to acquire - or control - energy assets and maritime chokepoints as part of a broader economic pressure campaign against China, which depends heavily on the Gulf and Venezuelan crude. 

"Chokepoint after chokepoint: the administration is methodically building a portfolio of assets that they are stacking against China: the Panama Canal, which is the only exit route for oil and gas from the Gulf of Mexico to China; Venezuela and her oil that used to go to China; Kharg Island and Iran's oil which used to go to China, and SoH through which Iran's and all Arab countries' oil used to go everywhere but mostly to China," Zoltan Pozsar of advisory firm Ex Uno Plures wrote in a March note.

Pozsar's view is important because, when placed alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping's comments earlier today that the world is slipping into "disarray," the larger picture comes into sharp focus.

"The international order is crumbling into disarray," Xi told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in Beijing. He used a Chinese expression indicating not only chaos but also moral decay. 

What Xi calls disorder increasingly looks like the unwinding of the global order that allowed China to roam freely across markets, resources, and trade corridors for years. In the Trump era, that ability appears to have been systematically dismantled - to some degree - in just four months.

Xi's comments are his first public statements on the US-Iran conflict, as new economic data overnight show the conflict took a sharp toll on Chinese exports in March.

China has criticized Trump's military action against Iran and called the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz "dangerous and irresponsible," while warning it could respond if Washington links the conflict to a new round of tariffs on Chinese exports.

For more context, about half of China's crude imports came from the Gulf/Middle East before the war disruption. Reuters reported the region accounted for 52% of China's oil imports. That share recently fell to 31% as Hormuz-related disruptions forced China to replace crude supplies with imports from Brazil and Russia.

Pozsar noted: "Again, the game is not to control Venezuela and Iran to choke China…"

And you might ask why Trump is squeezing China. Well, as Pozsar pointed out, "The aim is not to deny energy to China. The aim is to level the playing field between the two countries. To be blunt, in ways I couldn't be at Credit Suisse: if you fuck me on rare earths, I fuck you on energy."

President Trump has previously said his meeting with Xi in Beijing was pushed to May because of the conflict. The question now is whether Washington and Beijing can still strike a deal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 08:45

US Producer Prices Cooler Than Expected In March Despite Surge In Energy Costs

The month-over-month change in producer prices had accelerated for five straight months ahead of today's March data, which is expected to surge thanks to Iran-war impacts on energy costs.

Against expectations of a 1.1% MoM rise, March's Headline PPI shocked everyone by rising only 0.5% MoM (equal to the revised lower 0.5% MoM rise in both of the last two months). This pushed PPI up 4.0% YoY (the highest since Feb 2023) but well below the +4.6% YoY exp...

Source: Bloomberg

Energy dominated the increase...

But the Energy PPI index appears to have 'underperformed' relative to oil...

Source: Bloomberg

PPI Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods increased 1.6%, the largest rise since August 2023. Most of the March advance can be traced to prices for final demand energy, which jumped 8.5%. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy increased 0.2% In contrast, prices for final demand foods declined 0.3 percent.

• Product detail: Nearly half of the March advance in the index for final demand goods is attributable to a 15.7% rise in gasoline prices. The indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel, home heating oil, meats, and primary basic organic chemicals also increased. Conversely, prices for fresh and dry vegetables fell 10.7%. The indexes for natural gas and for carbon steel scrap also decreased.

PPI Final demand services: The index for final demand services was unchanged in March following a 0.3% advance in February. In March, price increases of 1.3% for final demand transportation and warehousing services and 0.1% for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing offset a 0.3% decline in margins for final demand trade services.

• Product detail: Within final demand services in March, prices for airline passenger services rose 2.8%. The indexes for food retailing; apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing; outpatient care (partial); and truck transportation of freight also moved higher. In contrast, margins for food and alcohol wholesaling fell 6.0%. The indexes for fuels and lubricants retailing; securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice; deposit services (partial); and brokerage fees and commissions for residential property agreements also decreased.

However, in a similar manner to CPI, we see Core Producer prices (ex-food-and-energy) rising just 0.1% MoM (dramatically cooler than +0.4% MoM exp). This pulled the Core PPI YoY down from +3.9% to +3.8%...

Source: Bloomberg

So that's all 'good news'.

Here's the bad news... the pipeline for inflation is accelerating significantly...

Source: Bloomberg

It seems the panic over energy fears sparking massive inflation (in March) was overdone (again). 

For now, the market continues to price in a higher chance of a rate-cut next than rate-hike.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 08:40

The Iranian Regime's Crypto Shadow Arsenal

Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times,

In 2025, Iran’s crypto ecosystem swelled to more than $7.78 billion, according to Chainalysis, marking a notable acceleration from prior years amid economic collapse and geopolitical turmoil.

For ordinary Iranians—roughly one in six of the population—crypto served as a vital lifeline. Facing relentless rial depreciation (down nearly 90 percent since 2018), chronic inflation of 40 to 50 percent, and frequent power blackouts or internet shutdowns during protests, citizens turned to Bitcoin and stablecoins like U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins (USDT) on the Tron network to hedge savings, facilitate remittances, and move value when traditional banking failed. Spikes in Bitcoin withdrawals to personal wallets often coincided with domestic unrest and regional conflicts.

Yet this parallel financial system has also become a powerful tool for the state. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) steadily tightened its grip on Iran’s crypto flows. IRGC-linked addresses received more than $3 billion in 2025—up from over $2 billion in 2024—with their share rising to more than 50 percent of total Iranian crypto inflows by the end of 2025. These figures represent conservative lower bounds based only on identified and sanctioned wallets.

The regime and its proxies used these funds to facilitate illicit oil sales, procure dual-use goods for missile and drone programs, finance regional militias such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, and sustain sanctions evasion operations. USDT on Tron (USDT-TRC20) emerged as the preferred rail for its speed, liquidity, and relative resilience. Iran’s Ministry of Defense even began openly offering to accept cryptocurrency for arms exports.

This dual-use nature of cryptocurrency echoes the history of Tor, the anonymizing network originally developed by U.S. intelligence agencies to protect spies and assets. Designed for secure communication, Tor now powers both legitimate privacy efforts and dissidents in repressive regimes, as well as the vast criminal ecosystems of the Dark Web. Just like Tor, the same technical features—such as decentralization, pseudonymity, borderless transfers, and resistance to single-point censorship—that help ordinary people escape tyranny also let regimes and bad actors bypass accountability.

The Procurement and Laundering Pipeline

Once oil proceeds or other regime revenues entered the crypto ecosystem, they moved through a sophisticated international pipeline designed to convert funds into usable military capabilities. Iranian oil—primarily purchased by Chinese “teapot” refineries—was shipped via shadow-fleet tankers and often settled through shadow-banking networks. Chinese “teapot” refineries are small, privately owned, independent refineries that process heavily discounted crude from sanctioned countries like Iran, thereby shielding major state-owned firms from sanctions risk.

Proceeds were then routed via front companies in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong, where Iranian facilitators converted them into stablecoins, especially USDT on the Tron network.

Key brokers, including Iranian nationals Alireza Derakhshan and Arash Estaki Alivand, both of whom were sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control in September 2025, coordinated the purchase of more than $100 million in cryptocurrency tied directly to Iranian oil sales between 2023 and 2025. They operated networks of UAE- and Hong Kong-based front companies, including entities like Alpa Trading–FZCO, to layer transactions, obscure origins, and settle payments for dual-use goods.

These funds financed procurement of critical components for Iran’s drone and missile programs—electronics, semiconductors, batteries, and unmanned aerial vehicle parts—sourced mainly from suppliers in China and Hong Kong. Goods were frequently mislabeled and transshipped to evade export controls, ultimately reaching the IRGC-Qods Force and Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics.

For years, Dubai served as the central hub for these operations, leveraging its existing free zones, money changers (sarraf), and informal networks. However, in early 2026, UAE authorities arrested dozens of IRGC-linked money changers, shut down associated offices, and weighed broader asset freezes—delivering one of the most significant disruptions yet to Tehran’s sanctions-evasion architecture. Even so, the underlying networks demonstrated resilience, adapting to new routes as pressure mounted.

The Enablers: Chinese Money Laundering Networks

The final leg of the pipeline relies on a powerful new layer of professional criminal infrastructure: Chinese money-laundering networks (CMLNs), whose recent rapid development appears to be an unforeseen consequence of the imposition of capital controls in China, including a sweeping crypto ban and a strict $50,000 annual foreign exchange limit.

These sophisticated, profit-driven operations—frequently built around Telegram-based guarantee/escrow platforms, money mule networks, informal over-the-counter desks, and layered wallet structures—functioned like a full-service “Amazon for criminals.”

In 2025 alone, CMLNs processed an estimated $16.1 billion in illicit crypto funds, accounting for roughly 20 percent of all known global crypto money laundering activity. Operating through more than 1,799 active wallets, they moved the equivalent of about $44 million per day.

Broader Chinese-language escrow and underground banking networks handled even larger volumes, with TRM Labs estimating more than $100 billion to $103 billion in adjusted crypto flows in 2025. These services offered reliable “laundering-as-a-service,” converting tainted stablecoins (especially the above-mentioned USDT on Tron) into usable fiat currency, like the U.S. dollar, goods, or clean assets, while minimizing risk for clients.

CMLNs served a wide clientele, including scam operators, ransomware groups, and sanctioned state actors. They helped launder proceeds from North Korean hacks (including the record 2025 Bybit theft), supported Russian sanctions-evasion flows, and enabled Iranian/IRGC networks to off-ramp oil-related crypto and settle payments for dual-use goods. These networks provided the essential “last mile” that turned raw illicit crypto into operational funding for weapons programs and proxies. 

Despite enforcement actions—such as the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network’s 2025 designation of the Cambodia-based Huione Group as a primary money laundering concern—the networks demonstrated remarkable resilience, quickly migrating to new platforms and services.

While seemingly not under direct operational command and control by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), CMLNs have grown into a multi-billion-dollar industry with conspicuous longevity. Given the CCP’s tight grip on China’s financial system, internet, and capital flows, and its aggressive crackdowns when it perceives threats to financial stability or political control, such large-scale, cross-border activity would be extremely difficult to sustain without, at the very least, tacit tolerance from Beijing.

Enforcement and Outlook

The Trump administration’s strongly pro-crypto domestic policies—including the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—stand in contrast to its aggressive enforcement against adversarial use of digital assets. On-chain intelligence sharpened U.S. focus on IRGC procurement networks, Russian stablecoin flows, and North Korean thefts.

Under its “maximum pressure” campaign, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned entire crypto exchanges in January 2026, including the UK-registered Zedcex and Zedxion, for processing large volumes of IRGC-linked funds, including more than $94 billion in total transactions on Zedcex.

Crypto had evolved into an important battleground: a lifeline for civilians in sanctioned economies and a tool for rogue regimes and criminal financing. As evasion networks adapt and migrate, the long-term success of disruption efforts remains to be seen.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 08:05

Texas AG Probes Lululemon Leggings For "Forever Chemicals"

Shares of Lululemon Athletica fell as much as 4.5% in late-morning New York trading after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton launched an investigation into whether the company, known for its leggings, misled consumers about potential "forever chemicals" in its apparel.

Paxton's probe of Lululemon's athletic apparel centers around leggings that may contain PFAS, or "forever chemicals," and whether the company misled consumers about the safety, quality, and health impacts of its products.

The attorney general's office will also review the company's restricted substances list, testing procedures, and supply chain practices to determine whether its products actually meet the stated safety standards.

Paxton stated, "I will not allow any corporation to sell harmful, toxic materials to consumers at a premium price under the guise of wellness and sustainability. If Lululemon has violated Texas law, it will be held accountable."

Supply chain analysis platform Sayari provides the latest shipment data on Lululemon: 

Meanwhile:

• Lululemon Founder Blasts Board Again Amid Stock Collapse

• Another Pair Of Lululemon Leggings Fails The Squat Test

Paxton has been widening his investigations tied to the "Make America Healthy Again" movement, which is linked to HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. His recent actions include probing WK Kellogg over artificial food colorings in Froot Loops and pressuring food companies to remove synthetic dyes from cereal and other products. He has also targeted toothpaste makers over fluoride.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 07:45

First Humanoid Robot With Embodied Intelligence For High-Risk Jobs Enters Service

Authored by Mriogakshi Dixit via Interesting Engineering,

In the dizzying heights of a chemical storage facility, a new kind of worker is punching in. China has reportedly deployed its first “embodied” intelligent humanoid robot designed for high-risk industrial operations. 

Embodied AI robot can be seen working on the wall of a large chemical storage tank in testing.CCTV PLus

This isn’t just a fixed machine; it’s a 90-kg (198-pound) robot that can climb walls and work where humans can’t.

Interestingly, the multi-purpose system is intended to replace human workers in hazardous conditions, such as chemical storage tank construction.

According to reports, this machine uses a magnetic chassis to stick to walls, allowing its humanoid upper body to operate on any metal surface.

The robot could be used to execute core industrial tasks, including precision welding, rust remediation, and routine inspections.

15 degrees of freedom

Compared with earlier wall-climbing robots that were limited to a single repetitive function, this new system is said to be a multitasker. 

It moves beyond basic cleaning or inspection by leveraging advanced AI to adapt to its environment and handle a wide range of complex industrial tasks.

With 15 degrees of freedom and dual arms, the robot mimics human flexibility to safely multitask on scaffolds, performing precision tasks such as simultaneous welding and grinding. 

According to CGTN, this physical agility is driven by a massive AI brain trained on 100,000 hours of data, enabling it to navigate complex environments with ease.

This “embodied intelligence” allows the robotic machine to perceive its surroundings, adapt to complex real-world scenarios, and improve its performance through ongoing experience.

Moreover, it uses a tethered cable system to eliminate the power limitations that usually hold mobile units back. 

This constant supply of energy allows for nonstop, 24/7 operation, ensuring the machine stays productive without the downtime required for recharging.

Built for the danger zone

Tested at a large chemical storage site, the 90-kilogram robot uses a wheeled, magnetic chassis to move steadily across vertical metal surfaces. 

Its powerful electromagnetic adhesion enables it to perform complex operations while supporting additional weight, ensuring it remains mobile and secure even on steep walls.

In the future, entire fleets of these robots could maintain shipyards and refineries. It could lead to a new era where heavy infrastructure can essentially take care of itself.

Prior to this, China reached another milestone by integrating an embodied intelligent robot into SAIC Motor’s electric vehicle division’s mass production line.

The humanoid robot, known as “Nengzai No. 1,” has officially joined the battery assembly line for the Buick Electra E7 at SAIC Motor.

This move is a major step for the Shanghai-based carmaker as it starts combining smart, human-like robots with its regular factory machines.

China’s dominance in the humanoid sector is backed by massive state support, with over 140 companies focused specifically on humanoids and $26 billion in dedicated investment.

Even Elon Musk has acknowledged China’s lead in this “priority industry,” which benefits from extensive supply chains and government subsidies.

By 2050, the global market for these robots could reach $7.5 trillion, and China is positioning itself to lead that charge by deploying humanoids in factories and private homes.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 07:20

Irish Patriots Are Fighting Back

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

So you say you want a revolution?  Well, take a look at what’s happening in Ireland right now.  Tens of thousands of farmers, truckers, and other fed-up “normies” are taking to the streets of Dublin to protest fuel taxes, mass immigration, and poverty-inducing “climate change” policies.  For the most part, corporate news propagandists in both Europe and North America are intentionally ignoring the combustible situation.  Just when I had begun to think that all the “fighting Irish” had moved to America, the Old Country has started to show signs of life.  Perhaps there are still a few irascible pugilists willing to bash heads and take on the globalist empire after all.

Speaking of irascible pugilists, Irish slugger Conor McGregor issued a bit of an ultimatum to the ruling class after the government mobilized the military and sent tanks to intimidate the protesters: “One wrong move by government here, and you will see, at the very least, 250k Irish people descend on the capital in a blink.  They must step down, there is no other way.”  Declaring war against ordinary Irishmen isn’t a good look for an Irish Deep State that can’t be bothered to guard its borders from hordes of invading foreigners.  While McGregor and his compatriots are out feeding protesters in the streets, the Irish government is hiking taxes on those who can least afford to pay them.  “One wrong move” could spark a revolution. 

Perhaps that’s why — after an initial show of force — Ireland’s globalist government appears to be trying to settle things down.  Reports on the ground say that police officers have remained friendly with protesters.  Some have suggested that Irish authorities are wary of following in the footsteps of Canada’s former prime minister, Justin Trudeau, when he exercised martial law powers to seize the bank accounts of and jail “Freedom Convoy” truckers protesting coercive COVID “vaccination” mandates.  On the other hand, a lot of the Irish protesters have also described a sense that many of the law enforcement officers patrolling the streets appear to be on their side.  If that’s the case, then Ireland’s political class may be worried about the effectiveness of siccing the military on a broadly-backed citizen uprising.  

Although few people saw the present brouhaha coming, Ireland makes a natural “ground zero” in the war between Big Government globalists (aka, the “international rules-based order” club of World Economic Forum totalitarians) and ordinary citizens willing to defend their nation’s sovereignty and their own personal freedoms.  For two decades, the globalists have been taking over Ireland and stripping it for parts.  As a country that once took pride in its meaningful traditions, customs, family loyalties, and Catholic heritage, Ireland has been one of the globalists’ favorite targets for conquest.  If the “multicultural” atheists could convert Ireland into another globalist outpost devoid of religious or civilizational allegiances, they knew that they would collect a valuable scalp in their war against the West.  Sadly, the globalists have been largely successful.  By transforming a conservative, staunchly pro-life, Catholic nation into a “woke” re-education zone embracing abortion, “trans” surgeries for children, open borders, Islamic supremacy, and the fetishization of “diversity,” the World Economic Forum’s “Borg” hive mind gutted one of the most culturally rich nations on the planet and mounted Ireland’s head on globalism’s wall of slaughtered states.  

Two months ago, free speech defenders Lorcán Price and Graham Linehan testified before the House Judiciary Committee concerning the mass censorship operation being run through the expanding Big Tech enclave in Dublin.  There are over 32,000 NGOs in Ireland receiving billions of dollars in U.S. and E.U. grants meant to help shape public opinion.  These organizations — one for every 155 Irishmen — represent the “information warfare” army that supports Europe’s globalist policies.  Over 70% of Irish legislation is copy-and-pasted from bureaucratic edicts originating in the European Union.  These laws include special incentives for illegal immigrants who arrive on Ireland’s shores.  They also include “hate speech” laws that have been used to criminally prosecute Irish citizens who object to foreigners raping and murdering their children.  The NGO-E.U. takeover of the Irish political system this century has drastically reshaped the country.

Once Christian Ireland now has constitutional protections for gay “marriage” and abortion up to a baby’s birth.  Two years ago, Ireland’s globalist cabal nearly succeeded in removing all mentions of “women” from the national constitution, as well as nearly redefining “family” as a “durable relationship.”  The Irish government continues to attack Ireland’s Catholic history, going so far as to depict Catholic saints as pagan goddesses in shameless acts of historical revisionism.  Globalists continue to rename historic institutions due to ludicrous accusations that Irish clergymen and scholars had ties to slavery and “white supremacy.”  As Irish writer Roger Berkeley sorrowfully observes, “Ireland shows what happens when elites, bureaucracies, and ideology override national identity.”

Wherever they conquer, modern globalists prefer to implement blunt-force “divide and conquer” tactics that pit parts of society against each other.  Women versus men.  Young people versus families.  “Green energy” fanatics versus small businesses.  Islamic supremacists versus Christians.  “Multiculturalism” versus Western civilization.  Non-whites versus whites.  Globalists succeed wherever they are able to stir up so much domestic strife that nobody pays attention to the cultural, economic, and political agendas being enforced upon the invaded countries.  After targeting Ireland for destruction and subverting its traditional culture, globalists appeared to have taken over the island for good.  

However, when an outside force conquers a nation, there’s always an inherent risk that forced subjugation sparks a rebellion.  When those being gradually enslaved begin to believe that they have nothing else to lose, the ruling class has real problems.  Despite the corporate news media’s best attempts to cover up what is going on in Ireland, the current protests against “climate change” taxes and mass immigration suggest that the natives are growing restless.  What happens next isn’t entirely clear.  

What is clear is that ordinary people in nations across the West are becoming aware of the information war that has long been waged against them.  For decades, they have been conditioned to believe false things: “Diversity is our strength.”  “Islam is a religion of peace.”  “Trans-women are real women.”  “Sex is a social construct.”  “Man-made climate change is killing the planet.”  “New taxes will save the planet.”  “Christianity is hate speech.”  “Hate speech is a violent crime.”  “Free speech requires government-moderated censorship.”  “National sovereignty is fascist.”  “Families promote white supremacy.”  “Merit is white supremacy.”  “Math, home ownership, mowed lawns, and punctuality are all forms of white supremacy.”  “Equal rights require ‘Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity.’”  “Unelected bureaucrats protect democracy.”  “NATO must protect non-NATO Ukraine.”  Et cetera ad infinitum.  

Perhaps globalism’s lies have become too numerous for the average Westerner to ignore.  Or perhaps globalists’ hubris has grown too grating for the average Westerner to tolerate.  Either way, there is a growing movement of people dedicated to defending Western civilization from the pernicious cancer of godless, multicultural, “woke,” and totalitarian globalism.  Because globalists control the corporate news media, these people are disparaged as “populists.”  In truth, they are Western citizens committed to national self-determination, the preservation of individual rights, and protections for personal liberty.  

Globalists call the will of the people “populism” and the will of bureaucrats “democracy.”  But when enough people decide to fight back against the bureaucrats, the spirit of revolution hangs in the air.  Perhaps that’s what we’re seeing right now in Ireland — a fresh reminder of Thomas Jefferson’s observation that no “country can preserve its liberties” if its “rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance.”  After all, the “tree of liberty must be refreshed ... with the blood of patriots and tyrants.  It is its natural manure.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 06:30

Latest Global Sportswear Supply Chain Read-Through Remains Bearish

The S&P 500 Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods sub-industry index (S5TEXA Index), which includes names such as Nike, Lululemon, Deckers Outdoor, Ralph Lauren, and others, is down 15% year-to-date and roughly 65% from its late 2021 peak. With the index now hovering around Covid-era lows, Goldman analysts have published their latest read on textiles, apparel, and footwear, which explains why sentiment across the global industry remains so bleak. 

Analysts led by Michelle Cheng reported that major Asian sportswear OEM March orders were mixed, with Eclat outperforming peers, while Makalot and Yue Yuen delivered in-line first-quarter results despite holiday-related pressure in Indonesia. Feng Tay continued to report year-on-year declines in orders, and Huali reported muted first-quarter orders.

Cheng said the latest earnings season and outlook for apparel this year appear mixed. She noted that geopolitical tensions are beginning to cloud demand and ordering patterns, while higher raw material costs could increasingly pressure OEM margins in the second half of the year if input prices remain elevated.

She said competitiveness among brands may also limit suppliers’ ability to pass those costs through, particularly if brands push part of the burden back onto manufacturers. Nike’s slower-than-expected reset is another major headwind for the industry.

"Most players said March orders were unaffected; but select players have noted lower forward order visibility from brands due to rising costs and concerns over demand," the analyst said.

She said that on the demand side, US conditions in March appeared resilient, based on commentary from Levi Strauss, PVH, and Nike, as well as high-frequency data - likely because the energy shock has yet to fully hit household budgets. Europe, the Middle East, and Africa were more uneven, she said, adding that sentiment across developed markets deteriorated after the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict.

Cheng said, "Sentiment worsened across developed markets following the start of the Iran war, but we will watch for data post the recent two-week ceasefire. At a brand level, we see negative read-across from Nike but positive from Fast Retailing." 

She pointed to Pou Sheng International, a major Chinese sportswear retailer for Nike, Adidas, PUMA, and Converse, whose March sales fell 6% from a year earlier, reflecting a typical post-holiday slowdown. First-quarter revenue declined 1%, which was broadly in line with expectations.

As of March 26, the latest read of sportswear supply chains is largely bearish:

As for when the S5TEXA Index will finally bottom, that likely depends on a reversal in consumer sentiment. President Trump suggested on Sunday that elevated gasoline prices could persist through the second half of the year, reinforcing the risk that pressure on household budgets may continue into the summer.

Professional subscribers can read the full "Asia Pacific Textile, Apparel & Footwear" note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 05:45

ECB Backs Tokenized EU Capital Markets (With Strict Guardrails)

Authored by Christina Comben via CoinTelegraph.com,

The European Central Bank (ECB) set out a cautious path toward tokenizing Europe’s capital markets, saying the technology can deliver efficiency gains only if it remains anchored to central bank money, infrastructures remain interoperable, and regulation is “robust and supportive.” 

In its latest Macroprudential Bulletin published on Monday, the ECB said distributed ledger technology (DLT) could help deepen the European Union’s savings and investments union, but warned that benefits will depend on interoperable infrastructure and policymakers keeping pace with new risks. 

The central bank’s stance highlights a push to modernize market plumbing in the bloc without loosening control over settlement or financial stability.

The ECB said that tokenization and DLT are “moving from concept to early-scale deployment,” but the benefits will “only be realised safely if European policy action keeps pace.”

ECB maps conditions for tokenized capital markets

One article in the Bulletin lays out how tokenized assets could rewire the issuance-to-settlement chain, cutting operational frictions and potentially improving secondary market liquidity. By moving securities and cash onto compatible ledgers and automating corporate actions, the authors argue, tokenization could streamline processes that today rely on multiple intermediaries and legacy systems. 

Digital assets landscape. Source: ECB

The analysis underlines, however, that efficiency gains hinge on avoiding a patchwork of incompatible platforms and ensuring that central bank money, not just commercial bank money or privately issued tokens, can be used for settlement in tokenized markets.

A further piece drills into the nascent market for tokenized bonds, finding early evidence that they can already lower borrowing costs and tighten bid-ask spreads compared with traditional formats. 

The authors attribute this partly to operational efficiencies and partly to improved transparency and programmability around settlement and collateral management. Still, they frame these benefits as tentative and conditional, cautioning that technology, legal and liquidity risks remain and that policymakers will need to monitor whether advantages persist once tokenization scales beyond flagship deals and highly selected issuers.

Tokenized MMFs and euro stablecoins under the microscope

The Bulletin also takes a hard look at tokenized money market funds and euro-denominated stablecoins, treating them as parallel experiments in onchain cash-like instruments.

One article stresses that tokenized money market funds (MMFs) largely replicate familiar liquidity and run risks but layer on new operational vulnerabilities, raising questions about how they would behave under stress alongside stablecoins.

Comparison between balance sheet and asset-backed model. Source: ECB

Another argues that Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) compliant euro stablecoins could reshape demand for sovereign bonds and act either as a liquidity buffer in turbulent markets or a new channel of bank contagion, depending on how issuers meet deposit and reserve requirements. 

Across the five pieces in the Bulletin, the ECB’s stance is clear: Tokenization can support its vision of an integrated capital market, but only if policy, prudential rules and central bank infrastructure evolve in lockstep.

Cointelegraph reached out to the ECB for comment, but had not received a response by publication.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 05:00

US-Sanctioned Tanker Signaling Chinese Ownerships Test Trump Blockade With Hormuz Crossing

Following news that two tankers, one of which indicated China as its destination, had turned around earlier in the day after the Trump blockade of the Straits of Hormuz had kicked in, one of them - a tanker linked to China - is making its way through the Strait of Hormuz, testing President Trump’s naval blockade, Bloomberg reported.

Rich Starry, a 188-meter medium-range tanker earlier known as Full Star, was blacklisted by Washington in 2023 for helping Tehran evade energy sanctions. It was not clear on this occasion whether it visited Iranian ports before its transit, or is carrying cargo. 

This exit from the Persian Gulf is a second attempt for the carrier in less than 24 hours. Just as the blockade came into effect, the Rich Starry was making its way into the narrow waterway near Iran’s Qeshm Island and turned back, as reported earlier, only to restart its exit just hours later, broadcasting that it has a Chinese owner and crew. While this is a safety mechanism frequently used by vessels not to attract Iran's attention, it will now test US resolve to challenge vessels tied to the world’s largest oil importer.

Rich Starry is owned by Full Star Shipping Ltd., which shares the same contact details as Shanghai Xuanrun Shpg. Co. Ltd., maritime database Equasis shows. A call made to Shanghai Xuanrun did not get through, while the company didn’t immediately respond to an emailed request for comment. The Shanghai-based entity is also sanctioned by the State Department.

Another tanker, the Elpis, headed into the Gulf of Oman via the strait just as the blockade began. Ship-tracking platforms Kpler and Vortexa indicate that Elpis had docked at an Iranian port in the gulf before attempting to pass through Hormuz.  Elpis’s owner is Chartchemical SA that uses its manager, IMS Ltd.’s contact details. A call made to Malaysia-based IMS failed to connect. IMS did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

No vessels with their transponders on have been seen sailing into the Persian Gulf since the blockade came into effect.

The global shipping community and energy traders have been on edge since Trump announced a naval blockade of Iran beginning on Monday at 10 a.m. New York time, leaving them scrambling to understand the fine print. Most of those reached by Bloomberg across the Middle East and Asia said they would pause moves until the detail of the US blockade, which is meant to restrict Iran’s capacity to sell its oil to China, was clear.

According to unconfirmed reports earlier on Monday, China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun reportedly sent a message to the Trump administration and the U.S. Navy emphasizing Beijing’s intent to continue operating in the Strait of Hormuz and uphold its agreements with Iran. “Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor those agreements and expect others not to interfere in our affairs" adding that “Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us.”

Whether this was true or not, we are about to find out what happens when an "Iran-friendly" ship tried to penetrate Trump's blockade which according to the WSJ counted more than 15 ships - including an aircraft carrier, multiple guided-missile destroyers, an amphibious assault ship and several other warships in the Middle East - in place to support the blockade. These ships have the ability to launch helicopters that support boarding operations, and some are capable of marshalling commercial vessels to specific areas to hold them in place.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 04:28

From Fiestas To Ferraris, Britain's Fuel Shock Has Rich And Poor Stealing Petrol

Across the U.K., motorists face record-breaking fuel costs at the gas pump as the Gulf energy shock ripples around the world. One of the clearest second-order effects now emerging is a surge in petrol station thefts, spanning from organized crime gangs to even drivers in exotic cars simply filling up and driving off.

British newspaper The Times cited new data from 500 UK filling stations showing that the daily value of stolen fuel jumped 27% from February to March. The spike coincided with the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict, which sent energy prices sharply higher. This means around £1.2 million worth of fuel is now being stolen every week across Britain.

What stands out in the report is that folks stealing fuel are not just desperate working poor folks or criminal gangs, but in fact, some petrol station owners report that even drivers of Ferraris and Mercedes are filling up and zooming off without paying.

Research firm Forecourt Eye, which helps petrol stations detect, track, and recover unpaid fuel bills, said that current theft levels across the UK have exceeded those of the early days after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Michelle Henchoz, managing director of Forecourt Eye, said:

With someone taking fuel you think that you'd have a vision of what they look like but they aren't what you think. They are driving supercars.

One came up yesterday and the car was a Mercedes AMG GT and they did a drive-off at one of our petrol stations. I checked online what the value of the car was. It was beautiful. I was thinking, how can they drive off? The fuel energy crisis in 2022 wasn't as bad.

What we're seeing is not just more fuel theft, but a different kind of behaviour that shows a clear increase in first-time offenders and in people who aren't attempting to flee, but instead are declaring they cannot pay.

Henchoz noted:

The data suggests this may reflect growing financial pressure, with more drivers filling full tanks rather than taking small amounts. Career criminals continue to do it but now ordinary people do it too because they can't cover the cost of fuel.

Goran Raven, who runs a petrol station in Essex, told the outlet that fuel thefts are noticeable and alarming:

You'll see everything from a crappy Fiesta going to a Ferrari. It really depends. The people who do it are brazen. They don't worry about covering up their faces, they will even wave at cashiers.

On one occasion we had an Aston Martin and Ferrari drive off within 30 seconds here. It was just short of £300 for two cars.

I'm sure there are people on the breadline who are desperate, that must be the case, but I reckon that would be single-digit percentage of people committing these crimes out there.

Goran Raven, who runs a filling station in Essex, said the first fortnight of the conflict resulted in a "definite and noticeable increase" in theft. Source: The Times

The energy shock is taking longer to materialize in the U.S. because of robust domestic energy supplies and President Trump's continued push for "drill, baby, drill." While there are no indications that fuel theft is surging at gas stations across the country, there are early signs that consumers are starting to look at EVs again, given that the national average price for regular 87-octane gasoline is trending above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon line.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/14/2026 - 04:15