Zero Hedge

The United States Of Austrian Economics

The United States Of Austrian Economics

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

Earlier in the week, on Monday, Axios reported that “Iran threatened to abandon the negotiations with the US over Israel’s actions in Lebanon,” with inside sources suggesting that Trump called Netanyahu “crazy.” While Trump did not comment on the exact language, he did confirm the use of “expletives” in an interview with the New York Post on Wednesday that he and Netanyahu haven’t exactly been seeing eye-to-eye: “I was a little perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon. You know, at some point, I said, ‘Bibi, we gotta stop this. You gotta stop it.’” Since then, the US has announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, “contingent on a complete cessation of fire by Hezbollah and evacuation of operatives from Lebanese territory south of the Litani River.” However, if one looks at the state of the current ceasefire between the US and Iran, one may be tempted to manage their expectations with regards to how long the ceasefire will last, and if this will set a foundation for meaningful negotiations between Washington and Tehran. More importantly, Hezbollah, who operates independently from (and often against the interests of) the Lebanese Government, has not yet indicated that they agree to the terms of the ceasefire. After the announcement, brent crude oil 1-month futures dropped a little more than $1 to $96.7/bbl.

According to Bloomberg, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has published a “restricted” document which reveals that the nuclear risk posed by Iran is now higher today than it was before the war began. Specifically, prior to the war, the IAEA was allowed to inspect Iranian enriched uranium, but such inspections have since largely halted. However, it should be noted that the IAEA was always only inspected where the IRGC told them they were allowed to, and many suspected that nuclear proliferation was happening behind the scenes, in facilities that were not accessible to the IAEA.

Tariff headlines are once again entering the news circuit. Trump has lowered the benchmark of US-content necessary for a copper product to be considered “US-made” and therefore exempt from the 50% Section 232 tariffs. However, there was also bad news for some US trading partners, as the USTR has announced proposed tariffs of 10-12.5% under Section 301. There is also the proposal of 25% tariffs on Brazil, which President Lula responded to by saying “he could not accept the treatment” his country had received.

Kevin Warsh appointed Paul Winfree and Daniel Heil to support him as Fed Chair. Winfree was working at the Heritage Foundation when Project 2025 was published in 2022, and contributed the chapter dedicated to the Federal Reserve. While Warsh has criticized the Fed himself, citing an article he wrote, published in the Wall Street Journal in November of 2025 called “The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership,” Warsh’s criticism is aimed at the how the Fed was being run. Some of Winfree’s comments echo those of Warsh (or perhaps Warsh echoed Winfree, given the chronology), such as critiques of mission creep, like how “political pressure has led the Federal Reserve to use its power to regulate banks as a way to promote politically favorable initiatives including those aligned with ESG objectives.” However, the bulk of Winfree’s manifesto takes aim at the Fed as an institution, arguing that it “lacks both operational effectiveness and political independence.” Winfree offers several recommendations, including the following:

  • Eliminate the dual mandate: Winfree argues that expansive monetary policy (the labor mandate) may “inadvertently contribute to recessions” as it provides “easy money” which “causes the clustering of failures that can lead to a recession.” He advocates instead of a focus on dollar protection and managing low and stable inflation.
  • Eliminate the Federal Reserve’s lender-of-last-resort function: Winfree believes that the lender of last resort function acts as a conduit for moral hazard. This is an especially interesting point as it lies in partial opposition to a strategy laid out by Stephen Miran (and friends) in his article, “A User’s Guide to Reducing the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet.” While their respective arguments do not lie in total opposition, Miran’s argument is that there should be more communication to lessen the stigma often associated with using the Fed as a lender-of-last-resort, as it “makes banks reluctant to access the [discount] window even when genuinely needed, leading them to hold larger precautionary reserve buffers than rely on the discount window as intended” and “has played a meaningful role in driving up demand for reserves.” See more in Winfree, next recommendation below:
  • Wind down the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet: Winfree, Miran, and Kevin Warsh are aligned on the goal of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. However, the methods for doing so are clearly controversial (see above). Miran’s report highlights many (many) strategies for reducing the balance sheet, so further discussion on one component is likely not a dealbreaker.

However, the aforementioned recommendations are overshadowed by his “monetary rule reform options,” the first of which, is free banking. Straight out of the Austrian School, Winfree advocates for the functional abolition of the Federal Reserve altogether, claiming that “potential downsides of free banking stem from its greatest benefit: It has massive political hurdles to clear,” saying that “transitioning to free banking would require political authorities, including Congress and the President, to coordinate on multiple reforms simultaneously.” Recall that this was published in 2022—before the GOP got Trump in the White House, Bessent in the Treasury, and a majority in both Congressional Houses. Naming a self-proclaimed free banker, who supports the dissolution of the Fed, as an advisor to the Chair of the Fed sets the stage for a potential dramatic restructuring of how monetary policy is conducted in the US. Winfree also argues in favor of either restoring the gold standard, or enforcing Milton Friedman’s “K-percent rule,” where the Federal Reserve creates money at a fixed rate.

As discussed by Rabobank’s Jane Foley in yesterday’s FX Strategy report, USD/JPY pulled back sharply as PM Takaichi spoke, hinting at potentially another round of MoF intervention. JPY dipped 0.37% to yesterday’s low, but that move retraced through to the NY close, ending the day 0.09% higher, and breaking the 160 level at 160.08. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda suggested that an interest rate hike at the June 16 meeting is likely, though not officially set in stone, and the Japanese OIS curve is pricing in close to 90% of a hike.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 10:45

John Bolton To Plead Guilty In Documents Case, Pay $2M Fine: Report

John Bolton To Plead Guilty In Documents Case, Pay $2M Fine: Report

John Bolton, former national security adviser to President Donald Trump, has reached a plea deal with federal prosecutors and is expected to plead guilty to one count of illegal retention of sensitive national security documents, according to CNN, citing three sources familiar with the matter.

Under the agreement, Bolton will pay a fine of more than $2 million. A single count of illegal retention carries a possible sentence of up to 60 months in prison.

A court hearing is currently scheduled for June 26.

Bolton was originally charged in Maryland with eight counts of transmission of national defense information and ten counts of retention of national defense information. The charges centered on diary-like entries from his time in the Trump White House that were allegedly kept at his residence.

Prosecutors accused him of sharing more than 1,000 pages of information through his personal email with two unauthorized individuals - reportedly his wife and daughter - though these transmission allegations are not part of the plea deal.

Related: Eyebrow-Raising Details Emerge From FBI Raid On John Bolton's Home

According to the indictment, Bolton used personal email and messaging accounts to transmit Top Secret intelligence about foreign adversaries, future attacks, and U.S. foreign-policy relations. He also kept classified files at his home, including sensitive intelligence about foreign leaders and U.S. intelligence sources.

The FBI Baltimore Field Office led the investigation, with oversight from the Justice Department's National Security Division. The indictment outlines two core allegations:

  1. Eight counts of transmission of NDI under the Espionage Act (18 U.S.C. §793(d)),

  2. and Ten counts of unlawful retention of NDI under §793(e).

The investigation intensified after Bolton’s email was breached by suspected Iranian hackers, during which investigators discovered the classified “diary-like entries.”

Bolton served as Trump’s National Security Adviser for one year before becoming a prominent critic of the president. Trump has repeatedly called for Bolton’s arrest, particularly over his 2020 memoir that was highly critical of the administration and allegedly contained classified information.

While the first Trump Justice Department opened investigations into the book in 2020, those probes were closed within a year. A new investigation was launched the following year after the email breach.

Developing...

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 10:31

Flesh-Eating Screwworm Detected In Texas, Threatening Already-Strained U.S. Cattle Herd

Flesh-Eating Screwworm Detected In Texas, Threatening Already-Strained U.S. Cattle Herd

Concerns over the New World screwworm (NWS) have been building for the last 12 months as the deadly cattle parasite spread through Mexico and the Trump administration attempted to prevent its spread into the U.S. Those concerns have now turned into red alerts after the USDA confirmed a single case in Texas, marking the first U.S. detection in years.

"A case of NWS may have been detected in South Texas. The sample is now at USDA's National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) in Ames, lowa for confirmatory testing. We will provide updates the moment results are available," USDA wrote on X.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins wrote on X that the "confirmed the detection of a New World Screwworm (NWS) fly in a 3-week-old bovine in Zavala County, Texas."

USDA states that there is currently no evidence that NWS has become established in the U.S., but the agency is moving quickly with quarantines, movement controls, surveillance within a 12-mile zone of the detection area, and the release of sterile flies to contain any spread.

The detection of NWS in the U.S. would be a direct biological and economic shock to the cattle herd if the spread were rampant, given that the nation’s herd is already at a 75-year low, beef prices are at record highs, and meatpackers are under pressure from fewer and more expensive animals.

If NWS were established in the U.S., this could delay herd rebuilding at the worst possible time. Reuters notes that a spreading outbreak could further hit the herd and expose Texas livestock alone to roughly $1.8 billion in estimated economic losses.

A spread of NWS would be bullish for live cattle futures and beef prices, bearish for meatpackers, such as Tyson Foods, that need cattle heads, and supportive of animal-health names tied to treatments and parasite control.

Perhaps the U.S. importing 60% of its live cattle from third-world Mexico is not the best idea.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 10:20

Blackstone's Private Credit Fund Joins Peers In Gating Investors After Surge In Redemptions

Blackstone's Private Credit Fund Joins Peers In Gating Investors After Surge In Redemptions

The private credit gates are shutting all over again.

After virtually every marquee private credit fund limited withdrawals after being flooded with redemptions requests in Q1, we are seeing more of the same as the second quarter rolls out.

And two days after Cliffwater LLC capped redemptions at 5% after investors requested 17% to be returned, a jump from the 14.0% in Q1 (which was also gated at the 5%) limit, this morning Bloomberg reports that Blackstone has also limited redemptions from its flagship private credit fund for the first time after investors sought to pull 10% of the shares, the latest such fund to cap withdrawals amid a continued investor exodus.

The $79 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund told shareholders that it would return 5% of its shareholders’ money, according to a filing

Thursday. During the previous quarter, the fund allowed investors to redeem a record 7.9% after tapping senior executives to help finance the withdrawals with hundreds of millions of their own cash.

This time - realizing that the avalanche of redemptions requests will not ease for a long time - the company did not bother with coming up with a creative solution to avoid gating... and gated investors, joining all of its other peers in doing so. 

Of course, Blackstone told shareholders that repurchases began to decelerate during the back end of its tender offer period, although as the chart below shows, we will have to wait until Q3 to see if that is true. 

Across the $1.8 trillion private credit market, redemption requests are expected to increase this quarter as investors redouble efforts to claw back money after being restricted. What is concerning, is that despite the recent surge in software stocks - driven entirely by positioning and not fundamentals - private credit continues to feel the pain of investor revulsion to BDC's overreliance on sottware cash flows, suggesting that the recently meltup in software stocks is due to a major pullback as soon as the marketwide gamma squeeze fizzles. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 09:45

Jamie Dimon To Hold "Live Interactive Discussion" With Super-Rich Clients As SpaceX IPO Roadshow Commences

Jamie Dimon To Hold "Live Interactive Discussion" With Super-Rich Clients As SpaceX IPO Roadshow Commences

SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation of about $1.8 trillion as it prepares to go public next Friday, trading on the Nasdaq exchange under the ticker symbol SPCX.

Last month, Goldman Sachs was selected as the lead bank for the SpaceX listing, alongside Morgan Stanley. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup are also among the 23 banks working on what will be the largest-ever listing, expected to raise a staggering $75 billion by selling about 555.6 million shares. The planned IPO price is about $135 per share.

On Wednesday, we told readers that SpaceX's roadshow for institutional investors was set to begin on Thursday.

A new Bloomberg report states that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is set to hold a "live interactive discussion" later today. He will be joined by Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO of the bank's asset and wealth management division, and two SpaceX executives: President Gwynne Shotwell and Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen.

The event will be streamed to 90 JPM locations across 26 states, according to Bloomberg sources, with more than 2,500 of the bank's clients expected to watch.

JPMorgan's nationwide roadshow for SpaceX shows that demand is extending deep into the private-wealth client base for this once-in-a-generation listing.

With the SpaceX roadshow underway, Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens attempted earlier this week to temper the hype around the listing by publishing a note saying, "We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO."

Meanwhile, Polymarket odds for "SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___?" currently stand at 89% for a market cap above $1.8 trillion.

//--> //--> SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Yes 89% · No 12%
View full market & trade on Polymarket.

SpaceX's listing next week will pave the way for other mega IPOs, such as those of chatbot makers OpenAI and Anthropic.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 09:30

UK Police Officers Admit DEI Training Pressured Them To Ignore Dying White Teen Henry Nowak

UK Police Officers Admit DEI Training Pressured Them To Ignore Dying White Teen Henry Nowak

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

Officers from the force that failed Henry Nowak have now admitted they felt "controlled and pressured to feel certain ways" after mandatory DEI sessions that hammered home 'white privileged' and unconscious bias.

The trainer outsourced to deliver the course was described as "deeply hateful of white people and British culture." Serving and former Hampshire officers told former Home Secretary Suella Braverman they were furious but stayed silent out of fear for their careers.

Multiple officers from Hampshire Constabulary have now gone on record about the ideological pressure inside the force.

They described how DEI modules on white privilege, unconscious bias, and the importance of being an "ally" were drilled into them.

It's not limited to this one police force either.

Back in April 2025, we detailed how UK police forces were already forcing officers into training explicitly designed to make them accept their "white privilege."

Thames Valley Police rolled out mandatory equity training covering white privilege, micro-aggressions, and the push from "non-racist" to "anti-racist." An independent review led by former assistant chief constable Kerrin Wilson found the sessions created deep divisions.

White officers expressed strong frustration and felt disadvantaged, while some minority officers said the training was harmful to real diversity efforts and would deter them from seeking promotion.

Former government advisor and ex-police officer Rory Geoghegan warned that crude categorisation by skin colour and critical race theory ideology had no place in an impartial police service.

The Hampshire police chief has publicly denied any anti-white bias or two-tier system. Yet the bodycam evidence and these officer admissions tell a different story.

An ex-cop who reviewed the footage called the response "unfathomable," rejecting excuses about fast-moving situations or complexity. Basic procedure requires treating a victim who says he has been stabbed and cannot breathe as a medical emergency first - not as a potential racist offender based on the word of the man who stabbed him.

Yet, the police watchdog investigated the officers' conduct and concluded there was no wrongdoing.

This is the same pattern seen in other high-profile failures: institutions investigate themselves, apply their own captured standards, and declare everything acceptable.

The public saw the footage. Henry Nowak's family saw their son die after being treated as the problem rather than the victim. The watchdog saw no issue.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has defended religious exemptions that allow Sikhs to carry large ceremonial knives in public. At the same time, British women face prosecution for carrying ordinary pepper spray for self-defense on the streets at night.

To make matters even worse, a tiny replica sword from a video game will land a white British man in prison.

The contrast could not be clearer.

Religious or cultural exemptions shield other groups from the same strict weapons laws. Henry Nowak's case shows what happens when the system already views native Britons through a lens of presumed guilt or lesser priority.

Henry Nowak was not a threat. He was a student who had been stabbed and was dying in front of officers trained to see race first and humanity second. The attacker walked away with different treatment. The victim's pleas were secondary to a racism narrative pushed by the perpetrator's side.

This is the predictable result of years of ideological capture inside policing - training that reframes basic law enforcement as potential oppression when the victim is white and British.

Officers who spoke out did so at personal risk. The watchdog protected the system. Starmer protects exemptions for some while ordinary citizens, especially women, are left defenseless under the same rules.

Britain's police were once expected to protect the public without fear or favor. When training teaches officers to weigh skin color and ideology before acting on a dying man's words, the institution has already failed its core purpose. Henry Nowak paid the price. The admissions now emerging confirm what the footage always showed.

The pushback against this capture is growing. Exposing the training, the excuses, and the double standards is the first step toward restoring policing that serves the entire country rather than imported ideologies. Native Britons deserve equal protection under the law - not to be treated as somehow 'privileged' while they bleed to death.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 09:15

Ford May Sales Plunge -13.6%, But UBS Says 2026 Remains On Track

Ford May Sales Plunge -13.6%, But UBS Says 2026 Remains On Track

Ford reported U.S. sales of 190,828 units in May, down 13.6% year over year, bringing year-to-date sales to 826,810 units, down 11%. The declines were broad-based, reflecting ongoing weakness in EV demand and continued portfolio shifts away from certain lower-margin vehicles. EV sales fell nearly 44% during the month, while hybrid sales declined 16%.

Among key nameplates, Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning both posted declines of roughly 45%, while Escape sales fell more than 80% as Ford continues to de-emphasize the model. Offsetting some of the weakness, Bronco, Explorer, Maverick, Transit and Heavy Trucks all delivered year-over-year growth.

The sales results generally appeared consistent with management commentary at the UBS Autos and Auto Tech Conference, where Ford indicated that industry demand trends in May unfolded largely as expected. Executives specifically noted that some of the volume declines associated with products such as Escape were anticipated as the company continues shifting its mix toward higher-margin vehicles.

More importantly, management reiterated that 2026 is tracking in line with expectations outlined during first-quarter earnings. A key focus remains the recovery from the Novelis aluminum supply disruption, which is expected to result in $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion of incremental costs this year. Ford incurred approximately $300 million of those costs during the first quarter and expects the impact to increase during the second and third quarters before easing as Novelis returns to full capacity in the fourth quarter. According to management, the recovery remains largely on track despite some expected unevenness along the way.

The company also remains comfortable absorbing an estimated $2 billion year-over-year commodity headwind, which is fully incorporated into Ford's $8.5 billion to $10 billion adjusted EBIT guidance. Management additionally pointed to stable pricing conditions, suggesting that recent industry concerns about demand deterioration have yet to materially impact Ford's business.

Looking beyond 2026, Ford outlined several potential earnings drivers for 2027. The most obvious benefit will be the absence of the Novelis-related costs, but management also highlighted ongoing improvements in warranty performance, material costs and launch expenses as the company moves beyond several major investment cycles. Ford expects these gains to help offset spending associated with future growth initiatives.

Those initiatives continue to center around Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Ford's next-generation EV architecture, which management increasingly describes as a broader platform opportunity rather than a single vehicle program. The company plans to invest approximately $1 billion across BESS and the Universal Electric Vehicle (UEV) platform this year, with spending accelerating in the second half.

Ford remains particularly enthusiastic about the UEV platform, which is scheduled to launch in 2027. Management believes the architecture can support feature-rich, technology-focused vehicles at price points around $30,000, potentially allowing EVs to compete directly with internal combustion vehicles rather than just other EVs. Prototype vehicles are already being tested in Michigan, and executives continue to emphasize the platform's scalability and potential for attractive economics as volumes grow.

The BESS opportunity also appears to be gaining importance in Ford's long-term strategy. Management highlighted progress toward bringing its 20 GWh facility online by the end of 2027 and expressed confidence regarding eligibility for production tax credits and other incentives. Executives suggested that Ford's licensing arrangement with CATL provides a unique advantage that may be difficult for competitors to replicate, while also noting that the company sees no current issues regarding supply-chain compliance.

Another potential source of upside is Ford's Super Duty business. Management indicated that the capacity ramp continues to progress well, providing additional optionality should demand remain strong.

Taken together, the UBS discussion reinforced the view that Ford's investment story is becoming less about monthly sales fluctuations and more about the earnings framework management is building for the latter part of the decade. While May sales remained under pressure, management's message was largely unchanged: 2026 is unfolding as expected, the Novelis recovery remains on track, and the company continues to position itself around battery storage, next-generation EVs and a structurally more profitable core business heading into 2027.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 09:00

Trump Downplays Iran's Attacks Targeting US Bases In Kuwait & Bahrain: 'They Were Slightly Provoked'

Trump Downplays Iran's Attacks Targeting US Bases In Kuwait & Bahrain: 'They Were Slightly Provoked'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

President Trump on Wednesday downplayed Iranian attacks that targeted US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, saying they may have been "slightly provoked" since the US launched strikes against Iran beforehand.

"There's a reason for everything, and we hit them pretty hard last night," the president told reporters in the Oval Office. "Some people would say they were slightly provoked because we took a strong action for a different reason, so they were reciprocating."

Source: The White House

Iran launched the missile and drone attacks after the US bombed a commercial ship attempting to reach Iran and launched strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island.

During the Iranian attack on Kuwait, a passenger terminal at Kuwait’s international airport was hit, and at least one person was killed, and more than 60 were injured. Local officials said the terminal was hit by Iranian drones, which Iran denied, claiming that it was struck by an errant US Patriot missile interceptor.

Kuwait’s aviation authority later released a video of the strike that appeared to show a drone striking the terminal.

US Central Command denied Iran’s allegation in a statement that came after it claimed that Iranian missiles fired at Kuwait "fell short or broke apart en route" and a second wave of Iranian drones failed to hit their intended targets.

"An additional wave of Iranian drones attempting to attack US forces in Kuwait failed to impact intended targets tonight. US Central Command air defenses successfully downed multiple drones and ensured no American personnel or assets were harmed," CENTCOM said.

Despite the casualties at the Kuwait airport, Trump said the Iranian attacks were "not a big deal" and that the US "nipped it in the bud very quickly." When asked if the ceasefire was still in place, he said, "In that part of the world, ‘ceasefire’ is when you’re shooting in a more moderate manner."

Iran’s attacks were its most significant response yet to US violations of the ceasefire, representing a new Iranian strategy to avoid more “tit-for-tat” strikes. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed on Wednesday that Tehran would continue to have a strong response to any US attacks.

"Our Armed Forces are conducting self-defense strikes on sites the US is permitted to use to attack civilian shipping and violate the ceasefire," Araghchi wrote on X in a post that included a video of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio praising the UAE and Kuwait for being cooperative with US military operations.

"Any hostile act will be met with an immediate, decisive response. What sanctions and war failed to achieve won’t be won with more war," the top Iranian diplomat added.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 08:45

Jobless Claims Jump As US Tech Firms Announce Most Job Cuts In 2 Years

Jobless Claims Jump As US Tech Firms Announce Most Job Cuts In 2 Years

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time jumped to its highest in three months last week at 225k (215k exp), but this remains well within the range of the last five years...

Source: Bloomberg

The biggest increase in initial claims came from California while Texas saw the biggest decline...

Continuing Jobless Claims dipped to 1.777 million Americans (remaining below the 1.8mm Maginot Line), just above two year lows...

Source: Bloomberg

However, despite the seemingly solid claims data, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports that US tech companies in May announced the most job cuts in nearly two years as they ramp up spending on artificial intelligence.

The tech sector said last month it planned to eliminate 38,242 positions, the most since August 2024.

Total private-sector job cut announcements, meanwhile, were down 7% over the past five months versus the same period a year earlier, reinforcing the picture of an ongoing “low-hire, low-fire” environment in most industries.

In May, Artificial Intelligence (AI) led all reasons for job cuts for the third month in a row, with 38,579 announced cuts.

It is the highest monthly total ever recorded for the reason since Challenger began tracking it in 2023, and it accounted for 40% of all cuts announced in May - up from just 7% in January, 25% in March, and 26% in April.

For the year, AI has been cited in 87,714 cuts, or 22% of all 2026 layoffs, already far surpassing the 54,836 attributed to the reason in all of 2025.

“The labor market is being reshaped by technology in real time,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer.

“AI is now the leading reason companies give for cutting jobs.”

The figures jibe with recent high-profile, AI-related workforce reduction plans announced by companies including Meta Platforms Inc., Intuit Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. Filings for unemployment insurance, however, haven’t meaningfully increased despite the slew of layoff announcements, which have mostly been targeted at white-collar positions.

On the bright side, through May 2026, U.S. employers have announced 80,472 planned hires, narrowly topping the 79,741 announced at this point in 2025. However, hiring announcements remain historically low by pre-pandemic standards.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 08:34

Hezbollah Chief Rejects US-Mediated Israel Truce; Trump To Maintain Ceasefire With Iran Unless American Troops Killed

Hezbollah Chief Rejects US-Mediated Israel Truce; Trump To Maintain Ceasefire With Iran Unless American Troops Killed Summary
  • Hezbollah chief rejects outcome of Lebanon-Israel talks, insisting that a truce must encompass whole country.
  • WSJ reports that the White House intends to maintain a ceasefire with Iran unless American troops are killed; oil drops also after Trump states on TS 
  • Trump lashes out after House War Powers votes passes Wednesday evening, attacking especially four Republicans who voted in favor.
  • Trump downplayed Iran's attacks on US bases in Kuwait & Bahrain, saying "they were slightly provoked...so they were reciprocating."
//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 25% · No 76%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

IAEA: Iran Nuclear Risk Higher than When War Began

Stating the obvious:

According to Bloomberg, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has published a “restricted” document which reveals that the nuclear risk posed by Iran is now higher today than it was before the war began. Specifically, prior to the war, the IAEA was allowed to inspect Iranian enriched uranium, but such inspections have since largely halted. However, it should be noted that the IAEA was always only inspected where the IRGC told them they were allowed to, and many suspected that nuclear proliferation was happening behind the scenes, in facilities that were not accessible to the IAEA.

Hezbollah Rejects Outcome of Lebanon-Israel Talks: Secretary General

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem in new speech rejects the Washington-mediated conclusion to direct Lebanon-Israel talks:

Naim Qassem has warned that Israeli areas across the border will remain under threat as long as the Lebanese people and villages come under attack from the Israeli army.

He also rejected attempts to tie the group’s deployment to wider political arrangements, saying the group refuses any link between Hezbollah’s presence and a ceasefire, or Israel’s withdrawal.

Some highlights from Qassem's address:

  • 'The revolution in Iran was launched from an Islamic background on the principles of resisting injustice and occupation, and it announced that it is neither Eastern nor Western"
  • 'The West and America will not accept Iran as a model of righteousness and justice; rather, they want it to be subordinate to their interests and their tyranny."
  • 'Thanks to Iran for helping us to regain our land and our right to confront the Israeli-American aggression despite its major confrontations"; describes direct negotiations as "absurd and humiliating" for Lebanon.
  • As long as Israel is in Lebanon, resistance will continue.
  • Northern Israel will remain at risk as long as Lebanese villages are being bombed.
  • "We are only concerned with ending the comprehensive aggression—with a ceasefire and the withdrawal of “Israel""
  • As long as the occupation exists, the resistance will continue.
  • "We have not given any commitment to anyone not to resist the aggression and respond to it. And as long as the aggression continues, we will confront it with all the power we have."
  • "The main objective must be the withdrawal from Lebanese territories so that the army spreads in the south of the Litani River and the liberation of the detainees"
  • "We do not accept any link between the existence of the resistance, the cessation of aggression and the withdrawal of "Israel"

Iran's foreign ministry is also still insisting that the broader US-Iran ceasefire must incorporate Lebanon.

Oil Prices Fall As Trump to Maintain Iran Ceasefire Unless American Troops Are Killed

President Trump in an early Thursday morning Truth Social post has said the United States is "in the middle of my final negotiations to end the War" - while blasting the Republicans who voted the night prior to limit war powers "GRANDSTANDERS" and "unpatriotic".

Even though Iran is denying that any direct negotiations are taking place, following a big flare-up this week in new tit-for-tat fighting which involved Iran sending more missiles and drones on Gulf states, especially Kuwait, the reference to 'final negotiations' was possibly enough to get oil prices to react, with a drop in crude. There was also a report that the White House intends to maintain a ceasefire with Iran unless American troops are killed.

Trump's new apparent strategy to just wait things out with no new planned military attacks has been featured in The Wall Street Journal as follows:

President Trump has told aides privately that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran kills American troops, U.S. officials said, insisting that the weekslong pause in airstrikes remains intact despite a steady stream of violent skirmishes.

The president’s reluctance to reignite the war suggests he might be willing to withstand smaller flare-ups for weeks—or even months—to avoid a broader conflict in the Middle East.

And Rubio appeared to second this in fielding questions about this week's violence:

Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the tit-for-tat attacks as purely defensive in nature and not a renewed outbreak of full-scale war. 

“They are happening in response to an Iranian action,” Rubio said in a House hearing Wednesday. “If they don’t shoot at those ships, we don’t shoot, but we have to respond.”

More evidence of Trump's apparently high tolerance for what he deems a violation of ceasefire:

House War Powers Vote Wed. Evening

As for the House vote, it was seen as a rare direct rebuke of Trump and the fact that this war - which the American public was promised would be a 'short' military action of possibly a few 'days' or 'weeks' - is now approaching 100 days, and the war powers passed 215-208, with the four Republicans joining all Democrats in voting yes being Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Tom Barrett of Michigan and Warren Davidson of Ohio.

Pushing Lebanon Truce Toward Goal Line

In Lebanon, there is some remotely positive news, with Lebanon ‌and Israel ​saying had ⁠agreed ​to implement ⁠a ceasefire during talks in Washington and overseen by the US; however, once again the deal is contingent on Hezbollah agreeing to the ceasefire.

"That cease-fire is conditional on Hezbollah also stopping fighting, but in theory, the news helps to take out a key sticking point in the U.S.-Iran talks that was holding up a deal. So that’s seen oil prices reverse a run of three [days of] consecutive gains," Deutsche Bank analyst Henry Allen stated in a research note.

Trump rages at House's successful War Powers vote, which could portend a political shake-up going into this Fall's midterm elections:

Some More Latest Developments

via Al Jazeera:

  • Hezbollah boss warns north Israel won’t be safe if Lebanon bombed
  • Several people have been wounded in an Israeli drone attack on a vehicle after Israel and Lebanon officials agreed to halt the war during a series of meetings in Washington, DC.
  • Before the truce announcement, Hezbollah said it launched a “salvo of rockets” at Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon’s Qantara, and fired drones at troops near the strategic Beaufort Castle.
  • The US House of Representatives passed a resolution to rein in President Donald Trump’s powers to attack Iran without congressional authorisation in a vote of 215 to 208.
  • Overnight Israeli air strikes on an apartment block in Gaza City killed at least nine Palestinians with four children among the dead.
  • Iran’s foreign policy a ‘consensus’ process but supreme leader gets final say
Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 08:30

Futures Slide After Broadcom Forecast Miss Chills Tech Euphoria

Futures Slide After Broadcom Forecast Miss Chills Tech Euphoria

US equity futures are weaker, dragged lower by Tech after a disappointing outlook from Broadcom triggered doubts that the blistering rally in technology shares had gone too far, a move exacerbated by euphoric positioning. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures dropped 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures slumped 1.2%. Broadcom, which added around $150 billion in market value just this week, slumped 13% in US premarket trading after its forecast for artificial-intelligence semiconductor revenue in the current quarter fell short of expectations. CrowdStrike shares also drop 10% after their revenue projection failed to impress investors. Semis are under pressure following AVGO’s earnings, while Mag7 are bid led by AAPL (+1%). Parts of Cyclicals and Defensives are bid as portions of the AI Theme are weaker pointing to a potential de-risking or the very early stages a rotation. Given the sell off in APAC and EU bid, it appears to be the former rather than the latter. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull steepens, and USD weakens.  Commodities are lower as Energy sells-off on news that Israel / Lebanon will resume their conditional ceasefire within 24 hours (although Hezbollah was notably not mentioned); but, precious metals are a notable outperformer. Today’s macro data focus is on Challenge Job Cuts, Initial Claims, and Continuing Claims, with NFP coming tomorrow. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Microsoft +0.8%, Amazon +1.1%, Apple +1%, Alphabet +0.4%, Nvidia -1%, Meta Platforms -0.7%, Tesla -0.8%. 

  • Broadcom (AVGO) is down 14% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that was seen as underwhelming, given the industry’s AI-related demand. Analysts note that AI sales and margins for the current quarter are weaker than expected. AI-linked companies fall after Broadcom’s outlook for AI chip revenue failed to impress investors. Decliners include Intel (INTC), which is down about 4%, and Lumentum (LITE), which is falling 3%.
  • Cryptocurrency-linked stocks fall as Bitcoin extended losses for a fifth consecutive session after renewed clashes in the Middle East weighed on market sentiment.
  • Ciena (CIEN) falls 5% after the maker of equipment used by telecom companies posted quarterly results.
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) falls 10% as the security software company’s first-quarter beat wasn’t strong enough to lift the stock that has more than doubled from a March low.
  • Five Below (FIVE) falls 10% after the retailer reported results, and while the quarter was a “standout,” the growth rate might be peaking, according to Jefferies.
  • Netskope (NTSK) tumbles 19% after the cloud security firm reported an adjusted loss of 6 cents per share in the first quarter.
  • Petco (WOOF) falls 12% after the pet health and wellness company’s adjusted Ebitda forecast for the second quarter came in below the average analyst estimate.
  • PVH (PVH) slides 22% after reaffirmed adjusted earnings-per-share guidance from the owner of the Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands missed consensus estimates. Analysts note sustained pressures from the Middle East conflict.
  • UnitedHealth (UNH) rises 2% after BofA Global Research upgraded the health insurer to buy, citing improving medical cost trends.

In other corporate news, Eli Lilly and BioNTech joined a growing chorus of drugmakers warning that proposed healthcare reforms in Germany risk undermining investment in Europe’s biggest economy. Some members of the billionaire Glazer family have been debating whether to sell their stake in Manchester United FC, after more than 20 years of ownership.  Netflix is using AI to help customers cut through the noise of content overload. In other news, Alphabet upsized its equity raise to $84.75 billion from the $80 billion it announced just two days earlier. Mike O’Rourke at Jonestrading said a recent Alphabet investor presentation “sounds like bragging about plans to spend beyond free cash flow generation.” He questioned what he called “a bold spending stance at such an early juncture” in the competitive industry. Elsewhere, SpaceX is seeking to raise $75 billion in a record IPO to fund expansion of its AI, rocket launch and satellite infrastructure. Based on the SEC filing, it would have a market value of almost $1.77 trillion. 

Broadcom reminded upside-chasing investors that risk still exists in markets, with its shares tanking 12% in premarket trading after it issued a disappointing forecast for full-year sales of its AI chips. Still, if the stock opens at similar levels in the cash market, it’ll only be back to where it was trading last Thursday. Those earnings followed weeks of “great-to-amazing results from its competitors and partners, which meant the bar was extremely high (some would say impossibly high),” notes Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli. The stock had soared 65% from its 2026 trough on March 30, making it the third-biggest point contributor to the S&P 500’s 20% surge.

The downturn extended to other corners of the tech trade, with cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. dropping 10% even after raising its revenue forecast. The sector also fueled losses in Asia, where South Korea’s Kospi index fell 1.8% while the Korean Won tumbled to the lowest since 2009. Europe’s benchmark was down 0.2%. 

Tech and AI will remain in focus for traders: earnings are due from Ciena premarket and AI pioneers are due to speak at Bloomberg Tech — while TSMC reminds us that chip supply won’t meet AI-fueled demand for years. Chipmaker Cerebras Systems said it plans to cooperate with a wide variety of suppliers of AI data center components, except Nvidia. 

Concern over the AI trade threatens to dent a record-breaking rally that has seen global gauges shake off worries about the biggest disruption to oil markets in history. The risk-off tone comes even as Brent heads for its first daily retreat of the week, trading 1.4% lower at about $96.40 a barrel.

“Valuations are looking slightly frothy in pockets of the market which have seen the strongest gains over recent weeks,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “A leadership change in equities is not unlikely at this point, with less powerful drivers than tech taking over.”

In hedge fund news, D.E. Shaw is extending the time it will take investors to fully exit two of its biggest hedge funds, as it joins peers such as Millennium and Citadel in seeking to keep client cash for longer.

In politics, the Republican-led House voted to halt the US war with Iran, breaking with President Donald Trump on an unpopular conflict. Trump announced that he planned to soon make Todd Blanche “permanent attorney general” months after he assumed that post in an acting capacity. 

European stocks have fared better as oil prices retreat, with the Stoxx 600 little changed. The Stoxx 600 was up 0.2%, led by consumer stocks which were boosted by positive earnings from Remy Cointreau. The artificial intelligence trade took a breather following a disappointing outlook from Broadcom. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

  • Remy Cointreau shares rose as much as 15%, the most since January 2024, after the French alcoholic drink maker reported earnings that slightly beat consensus profit expectations
  • CMC Markets shares rose as much as 18% to highest since August 2021, after the online trading platform guided to stronger-than-expected FY27 revenue and highlighted accelerating growth across its partnerships and institutional businesses
  • Abivax shares climbed as much as 14% in Paris, extending a rally after the stock plunged due to cancer cases in a crucial clinical trial
  • Puuilo shares rose as much as 6.3%, the most since March, after DNB Carnegie predicted that upcoming first-quarter earnings would show the Finnish retail group started the year on a “solid footing,” helped by improving consumption
  • Partners Group shares rose as much as 1.8%, attempting to recover from the previous day’s record 16% drop that was triggered by the Swiss investment firm’s decision to cap withdrawals from one of its private equity funds
  • Universal Music shares fell as much as 7.6% on Thursday morning to €17.74 after Bill Ackman sold his €1.42 billion ($1.65 billion) stake in the record label just days after the Amsterdam-listed company rejected a takeover bid by the hedge fund billionaire
  • Tech hardware stocks in Europe fall on Thursday and pare their year-to-date gains after US-listed Broadcom gave an outlook for artificial intelligence revenue that missed more bullish expectations
  • Pirelli shares declined as much as 13% as Grizzly Research said it’s short the Italian tire maker, citing concerns regarding the company’s exposure to Russia
  • Burckhardt Compression shares fell as much as 13%, the largest daily drop in over six years, after the Swiss industrial manufacturer’s full-year results showed a significant drop in order intake
  • Intrum fell as much as 19%, the most in a month, after the Swedish credit management firm announced the terms of its SEK7.5 billion capital raise

Asian stocks are poised to snap a four-day winning streak as the artificial intelligence rally that drove a regional benchmark to record highs lost steam, following Broadcom’s underwhelming forecast. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.8%, on pace for its worst day since May 15. Chip-related companies including Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC were among the biggest drags. Most markets in the region slipped, led by South Korea, Indonesia and Taiwan.  The blistering rally in Asian chip stocks has left them exposed to any doubts about the durability of the AI boom. Broadcom’s weaker-than-expected guidance rattled investor confidence, sparking declines in shares that had benefited from high expectations for sustained tech hardware spending.

In FX, the Swedish krona is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.6% against the greenback after CPI surprised to the upside. The South Korean won fell to the lowest since 2009 even as the government pledged to curb excessive volatility.

In rates, treasuries trade near session highs in early US session, with modest gains led by front-end tenors amid oil price declines. Yields in 2-year sector yields are nearly 4bp lower on the day.  Treasuries outperform bunds and gilts, with Bank of England Governor slated to speak at 11:40am New York time.US yields are 1bp to 3bp richer across a steeper curve, leaving 5s30s spread 2bp wider on the day near session highs; 10-year near 4.47% is 2bp lower, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by more than 1bp

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down more than 2% following three straight increases; Washington and Tehran have a framework to extend a truce agreement by two months, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but an agreement hasn’t been reached and sporadic attacks have resumed.Oil prices and yields extended declines in early US trading after US President Donald Trump said negotiations to end the war in Iran were in final stages, repeating a comment he’s made at least twice since mid-May. Precious metals advance while Bitcoin falls to the lowest since before the Iran war began. 

US economic data calendar includes 1Q final productivity and unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin (8:30am), Bowman (10am), Daly (11:40am, 1:10pm) and Schmid (1pm)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • An informed source to Al Arabiya said the agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds in its final stages, but the search continues for a mechanism on frozen funds. However, US President Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement.
  • Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in US-brokered talks, with the ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah's evacuation from the Litani. Despite this, there have been reports of continuing attacks in Southern Lebanon.
  • House backed a resolution curbing Trump's Iran war powers with the House voting 215 to 208 to pass the War Powers resolution.
  • Nasdaq Futures Tumble as Broadcom Tests AI Trade: BBG
  • SpaceX Seeks $75 Billion in Record IPO to Fund AI, Launch: BBG
  • Challenger Job Cuts (May) 97.006K (Prev. 83.387K); May Job Cuts Rise 16% from April, the highest May total since 2020.
  • Trump is to announce nearly USD 700mln in coal support and to use the Defence Production Act for the coal sector: Axios.
  • Trump Says He Plans to Make Blanche ‘Permanent Attorney General’: WSJ
  • Agricultural Secretary Rollins announced additional USDA personnel deployment to South Texas, and urged livestock producers to remain vigilant, while she stated that potential New World screwworm detection is being fully contained and is not a harm to US food supply or safety.

Iran War News

  • US President Trump said they have been hitting Iran pretty hard and Iran negotiations are going well, while he suggested a deal could happen over the weekend and said anything can happen when you are dealing with Iran, but also stated it could go another two or three weeks. Trump also stated he would rather not use the military in Iran, and would rather not wipe Iran out, as well as noted that they are close to signing papers in theory. Furthermore, Trump said they are trying to separate Iran and Lebanon issues, while he responded that in that part of the world, a ceasefire is when you're shooting in a more moderate manner, when questioned about the ceasefire.
  • US President Trump told aides privately that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if US troops are killed, according to WSJ.
  • An informed source to Al Arabiya said the agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds in its final stages but the search continues for a mechanism on frozen funds. US President Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement. The source notes that the main obstacle relates to the mechanism for disposing of part of the frozen Iranian funds and there is a proposal to create a special fund for depositing frozen Iranian funds that is under discussion.
  • Sources noted that the first phase of the interim agreement between the US and Iran involves cessation of direct military operations, phase 2 is a full reopening of maritime traffic, phase 3 includes limited easing of some sanctions and phase 4 includes major issues such as the Iranian nuclear program, according to Al Hadath.
  • Pakistani Foreign Minister, on reports of halted US-Iran talks, said "Our dialogue process continues”, Pakistani journalist Mallick posted.
  • Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in US-brokered talks, with the ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah's evacuation from the Litani, while Lebanese armed forces will take control of pilot zones, and Israel and Lebanon agreed to reconvene negotiations in the week of 22nd June.
  • US State Department confirmed Israel and Lebanon agreed to the implementation of a ceasefire and that the sides agreed with guidance of the US to swiftly advance creation of pilot zones in which Lebanese armed forces will take exclusive control of the territory. Israel and Lebanon also reaffirmed they have no hostile intent towards one another and are committed to continuing negotiations.
  • Lebanese President said the implementation of the ceasefire could begin within 24 hours of final approval, Arab News reported.
  • The Israeli army has begun withdrawing its forces from Dibbin in southern Lebanon, Al Hadath reported.
  • Israeli Defence Minister said the IDF will continue its operations on the ground in Lebanon at this stage, Al Hadath reported. "The Lebanese will not return to the south and we will continue to destroy infrastructure."
  • Israeli military said fighting in Southern Lebanon continues.
  • Israeli airstrikes were reported in several areas in southern Lebanon, according to SNN.
  • Hezbollah attacked Israeli positions in southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were lower following the negative handover from the US, where risk sentiment was weighed on by the recent retaliatory attacks between the US and Iran, as well as weakness in tech stocks. ASX 200 was pressured by underperformance in the mining and materials industries, while most sectors were subdued aside from the resilience in defensives. Nikkei 225 retreated from record levels and briefly tested the 67,000 level to the downside amid intervention risks following FX comments from Japanese PM Takaichi, while comments from BoJ Governor Ueda signalled the central bank could resume rate normalisation this month. On that front, hawkish BoJ sources noted the central bank is to mull a hike this month, with another possible in 2026. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood amid tech-related headwinds and with the PBoC refraining from open market operations for a second consecutive day.

Top Asian News

  • Australian Balance of Trade (Apr) 1.791B vs. Exp. -1.61B (Prev. -1.841B).
  • Australian Imports MoM (Apr) M/M 0.8% (Prev. 14.1%).
  • Australian Exports MoM (Apr) M/M 7.2% (Prev. -2.7%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) started the European morning on a positive footing, as markets digested positive geopolitical updates from President Trump and a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire. However, markets have since soured amidst reports that Israel were conducting operations in Lebanon, and following the negative action seen across the pond. European sectors are mixed. Retail (+1.7%) continues to gain following the earnings by Inditex on Wednesday. Consumer Products & Services (+1.7%) and Travel & Leisure (+1.2%) round out the top 3. The laggards include Telecoms (-1.6%), Media (-1.6%) and Basic Resources (-1.1%).

Top European News

  • UK PM Starmer is considering watering down plans to boost defence spending by GBP 18bln over concerns that they are unaffordable, according to The Times.

FX

  • The Buck is lower this morning vs initially starting the European morning flat. Not really any geopolitical market-moving headlines overnight; however, the Buck was pushed lower after hawkish BoJ sources (see below). In terms of Fed speak since the close, Williams said he sees no obvious direction for rates and no reason to change them. Logan said higher rates could be needed later this year. Ahead, Daly, Bowman & Barkin are slated to speak.
  • JPY is slightly firmer and trading in line with most G10s. Sources told Bloomberg and Reuters that the BoJ would raise rates at the June meeting, with the Bloomberg piece suggesting more tightening was possible in 2026. Markets assign 20bps of tightening in June (80% probability), with an additional 20bps implied by year-end. The BBG report saw a 35-pip move lower in USD/JPY over ten minutes, which ultimately proved fleeting, with Yen fundamentals remaining bearish and two hikes close to being fully priced this year. A strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities said: “Even if the BoJ raises rates in June, any rebound in the yen will be limited”. USD/JPY trades higher by 0.1%, a touch below the 160.00 mark.
  • CHF is performing well against the Euro and Buck after CPI metrics from Switzerland. Although a cooler-than-expected report is unlikely to shift the dial for policymakers at the SNB. This is because the headline remains towards the lower half of the 0-2% target band, and the SNB continues to make clear that inflation meets its medium-term stability objective. As such, policy is expected to remain at the ZLB for the foreseeable future. EUR/CHF -0.1% at 0.9181, USDCHF -0.3% at 0.7896.

Central Banks

  • Fed's Logan (2026 voter) said she is increasingly concerned higher interest rates could be necessary later this year and monetary policy is not restraining the economy, while she added that inflation is taking too long to return to 2%, economic activity remains strong and corporate earnings are 'going gangbusters'. Logan said financial conditions are accommodative, and the labour market is stable, but separately noted that the higher price of gas is feeding through to prices of other goods and services. Furthermore, she stated that mildly restrictive policy is needed and that the current monetary policy looks neutral or loose.
  • RBA Governor Bullock said the RBA expects inflation to increase further in the near term and notes flow of data and development since May has not been materially different to our expectations. She notes that inflation is too high, and the board will do what it considers necessary to achieve its mandate of delivering price stability and full employment. Some signs of tightening impact already seen, but full effects to take 1 to 2 years.
  • BoJ is said to mull a June rate hike with another possible in 2026 and sees less need to cut bond buys at the same pace in FY27, according to Bloomberg source reported. Reuters then corroborated this report.

Fixed Income

  • Global fixed benchmarks are mixed as energy prices cool a touch after President Trump said Iran negotiations are going well, while he suggested a deal could happen over the weekend. Though noted that it could go another two or three weeks. Separately, reports suggest that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire, though recent reports have suggested that the Israeli army is continuing its operations in the region. This uncertainty has led to the tentative action across fixed paper this morning.
  • USTs (+4 ticks) are slightly firmer and trade within a narrow 109-12+ to 109-19+ range. Really not much driving the action this morning aside from geopolitics, but domestic data will likely garner some attention later. To recap, ISM Manufacturing & Services indicate a solid activity picture, with labour market reports (ADP/JOLTS) also pushing back on near-term rate cut expectations. Ahead, focus will be on: Jobless Claims (May/30), Revelio PLS (May), and Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators Final (May).
  • JGBs (-20 ticks) are on the back foot this morning for two key reasons: a) hawkish BoJ reports, b) an enhanced-liquidity auction. Delving into the report, Bloomberg first reported that the BoJ is mulling a hike in June, and potentially one more this year. Moreover, a source said that the Bank sees less need to pare back its bond purchasing plans. This was later corroborated by a Reuters piece, where a source said, “Unless there's a severe escalation in the conflict, the BOJ will probably hike rates in June”. Before the sources piece, markets already expected the Bank to hike in June; therefore, the pressure in JGBs this morning stems from comments related to the plans later in the year.
  • Bunds and Gilts follow the tentative action seen in USTs, but are lower by a handful of ticks. Domestic updates for EZ have been lacking this morning, but traders will eye Retail Sales. Irrespective of the report, the ECB is set to hike at the June meeting – money markets assign a 96% chance of such a decision; another hike is then priced in for October.
  • France sells EUR 13.998bln vs exp. EUR 12-14bln 3.70% 2036, 4.00% 2038, 3.60% 2042, 4.40% 2057 OAT.
  • Spain sells EUR 4.973bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 2.35% 2029, 3.10% 2031 and 3.50% 2041 Bono and EUR 0.593bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 2.05% 2039 I/L Bono.

Commodities

  • Crude markets are on a softer footing amid ongoing mediation efforts to broker some sort of US-Iran deal following two flare-ups earlier this week. In terms of the major updates, US President Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing and suggested a deal could come within days, although talks could also continue for several more weeks. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is awaiting Iran’s final sign-off on negotiations surrounding Tehran’s nuclear programme. On the other side, Iranian officials outlined a four-stage framework for a potential agreement with the US. The four-stage proposal for a deal with the US includes: 1) Ending the war, 2) tangible measures re. the Strait, 3) sanctions and nuclear issues, 4) the establishment of a supervisory committee. More recently, Al Arabiya reported that the agreement on the release of frozen Iranian funds is in its final stages, albeit the search continues for a mechanism for frozen funds. The sources added that Trump informed the mediators of his refusal to release funds to Iran before signing the agreement. Elsewhere, Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a US-brokered ceasefire framework and continue negotiations, although since the ceasefire, Hezbollah and IDF continued to exchange fire in the south of Lebanon.
  • WTI Jul and Brent Aug futures are subdued in USD 94.06-95.91/bbl and USD 95.61-97.44/bbl ranges, respectively, at the time of writing, with fleeting downside seen on the aforementioned Al Arabiya sources. Dutch TTF ekes mild gains (+0.2%) but trades choppy on either side of EUR 49/MWh. “Positioning data for TTF continues to show that investment funds have been somewhat unfazed by ongoing LNG supply disruptions in the Middle East amid optimism over a resumption of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz”, analysts at ING write.
  • Spot gold and silver are firmer after yesterday's losses, with the yellow metal finding support this morning at its 200 DMA (USD 4,423/oz) before rebounding to trade in a current USD 4,423-4,484/oz range. Spot silver trades in a USD 72.45-73.91/oz range, still some way off yesterday’s peak at USD 75.33/oz.
  • Base metals are mostly lower amid the broader cautious risk tone. 3M LME copper ekes mild gains but remains under USD 14,000/t in a USD 13,701.13- 13,849.00/t at the time of writing.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak said Russia expects to reach its OPEC+ oil production quota this year. The oil market has not yet fully seen the consequences of the Middle East conflict, and stockpiles are being used. There has been no oil production lower than the start of the year due to “unscheduled maintenance” at refineries.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC+ countries do not plan to share the UAE's oil output quota.
  • Russia's Investment Fund Head Dmitriev said the EU is already going to make a number of concessions to Russia on energy as they need this for survival, TASS reported.
  • China to lower retail gasoline prices by CNY 525 per metric ton from June 5th.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: May 30 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215k, prior 215k
    8:30 am: May 23 Continuing Claims, est. 1780k, prior 1786k
  • 8:30 am: Fed’s Barkin in Fireside Chat
  • 10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Testifies Before House Financial Services Committ
  • 11:40 am: Fed’s Daly Appears on Bloomberg TV
  • 1:00 pm: Fed’s Schmid Speaks in Fireside Chat
  • 1:10 pm: Fed’s Daly at Bloomberg Technology Summit

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The geopolitical headlines have become slightly more positive this morning, with oil prices falling back after the US said that Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. That ceasefire is conditional on Hezbollah also stopping fighting, but in theory, the news helps to take out a key sticking point in the US-Iran talks that was holding up a deal. So that’s seen oil prices reverse a run of three consecutive gains, with Brent crude down -0.96% to $96.87/bbl. And given the news, the 10yr Treasury yield (-1.4bps) has also fallen back to 4.48%.

Nevertheless, even as the geopolitical news looks more positive, equities have taken a hit this morning after Broadcom’s forecast for AI chip revenue was beneath estimates, which pushed their share price down over -13% in overnight trading. Those concerns around AI have extended more broadly too, with S&P 500 futures down -0.37% this morning. And in Asia overnight, all the major indices have lost ground, including the Nikkei (-1.73%), the KOSPI (-1.17%), the Hang Seng (-1.39%), the CSI 300 (-0.58%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.43%). Moreover, there’s been a broader slide in risk assets, with Bitcoin at a 3-month low this morning of $64,593.

Before that, markets had already struggled yesterday, as growing doubt about a US-Iran peace deal pushed Brent crude (+1.89%) up for a third consecutive session, closing at $97.81/bbl. And with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked and no clear sign of a resolution, there were even mounting expectations about a potential Fed rate hike this year, with market pricing for that up to 81% by the close. So that pushed bond yields higher, with a fresh dose of momentum from another round of strong US data, which added to the rate hike speculation. So it was a tough day all round, with the S&P 500 (-0.74%) finally ending a run of 9 consecutive gains, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (+5.1bps) was back up to 4.49%.

In terms of the Middle East, events there were still dominating the market agenda, with few obvious signs that a peace deal was imminent. For instance, as we went to press yesterday, Bahrain said they’d intercepted three missiles and several drones, whilst Kuwait had to suspend air traffic briefly after an Iranian attack. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted that “Any hostile act will be met with an immediate, decisive response” and also said that “no tangible progress” had been made in talks with the US.

There was little clarity from Trump himself, who said the negotiations could complete over the weekend but could go on another two, three weeks. So tensions seemed to be ratcheting up again, and hopes for a durable peace deal continued to decline. Meanwhile, CNN reported yesterday that one of the key sticking points was monetary compensation for Iran. Otherwise, the US House of Representatives did vote against the Iran war in a 215-208 vote yesterday, after four Republicans joined with the Democrats. But in practice that won’t end the military conflict, as the Senate would also need to pass it, and Trump could issue a veto as well.

That backdrop meant that oil prices posted a fresh increase yesterday, with Brent crude up +1.89% to $97.81/bbl. Indeed, we can see from the Polymarket odds that there’s growing scepticism about a return to normality in the Strait of Hormuz. For instance, the probability of a return to normal traffic by the end of July was down to 34% yesterday, having been 39% the previous day. And it was clear investors were pricing the longer conflict scenarios as well, with the 6-month Brent crude future (+1.07%) up to $86.91/bbl.

With oil prices rising again, that led to a renewed bout of concerns around inflation on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the US 1yr inflation swap (+6.8bps) was back up to 3.18%, whilst the Euro 1yr inflation swap (+6.5bps) was up to 3.05%. So that led to a fresh round of pressure on sovereign bonds, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+5.2bps) up to 4.50%, whilst yields on 10yr bunds (+6.0bps), OATs (+7.7ps) and BTPs (+8.5bps) saw even bigger increases.

The rise in bond yields got even more momentum from another strong batch of US data, which added to expectations of a Fed rate hike this year. For example, the ISM services index rose by more than expected in May, up to 54.5 (vs. 53.8 expected). Moreover, we also had the ADP’s report of private payrolls, before the US jobs report tomorrow. That ADP release pointed to a robust labour market in May, with private payrolls up by a 16-month high of +122k (vs. +120k expected).

With that data in hand, the probability of a Fed rate hike by December was up to 81% at the close, up from 71% the previous day. And similarly in Europe, the number of ECB hikes priced by December was up to 68bps, up from 65bps the previous day. Meanwhile in Japan, markets have also priced in a growing chance of a rate hike, as BoJ Governor Ueda signalled in a speech yesterday that it may need to be considered. For instance, he said that if “upside risks to prices outweigh downside risks to economic activity, it will be necessary to thoroughly discuss the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate”.

That combination of negative geopolitical headlines and more hawkish rates pricing meant US equities finally stumbled after a long run of gains. So the S&P 500 (-0.74%) and the NASDAQ (-0.89%) both fell back after 9 consecutive moves higher. The declines were fairly broad, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.42%) also seeing a decent pull back. But it was the Magnificent 7 (-1.25%) that saw a particular underperformance, dragging US equities more broadly, even as the Philly Semiconductor index (+1.39%) reached another record high.

Over in Europe, there were more broad-based equity declines, with the STOXX 600 (-0.66%) falling back, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.31%), the CAC 40 (-0.71%) and the FTSE MIB (-1.07%). But as in the US, the latest data also pointed in a slightly better direction than expected. So the final composite PMI for the Euro Area was revised up a point from the flash reading to 48.5. Admittedly, that was still beneath the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction, but it suggested the economy wasn’t deteriorating as rapidly as previously thought given the energy shock. Peter Sidorov published his latest global PMI monitor yesterday, where the data shows the global economy adapting to the energy shock, albeit with some signs of rising employment risks.

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the May construction PMIs for Germany and the UK, along with Euro Area retail sales for April, and the US weekly initial jobless claims. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, and the Fed’s Barkin, Bowman and Daly.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 08:23

Five Below Plunges After Earnings Beat, Warns Consumer Boost From Tax Refunds Is Ending

Five Below Plunges After Earnings Beat, Warns Consumer Boost From Tax Refunds Is Ending

Five Below's core customer base is tweens, teens, and value-conscious households. That makes management's warning on Wednesday's earnings call particularly notable: the retailer is directly exposed to trends in low-end discretionary spending.

"We're looking at the world that our customers are living in: with rising fuel costs, with very sticky inflation, with a somewhat—soft labor market. And we think a piece of that pain that they are feeling wasn't felt in the first quarter purely because of tax proceeds," CFO Daniel Sullivan told analysts during an earnings call.

"We remain cautious with respect to the macro environment, consumer sentiment and buying behaviors," Sullivan added.

Shares of Five Below plunged 10% in premarket trading after the discount retailer issued a dismal outlook for the consumer this summer, despite beating first-quarter earnings expectations and raising full-year profit guidance.

Same-store sales surged nearly 23%, exceeding the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 17.8%, which was mostly helped by viral demand for a "squishy dumpling" toy.

Snapshot of the first quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Net sales $1.29 billion, +32% y/y, estimate $1.22 billion

  • Adjusted EPS $2.22, estimate $1.75

  • EPS $2.21 vs. 75c y/y

  • Comparable sales +22.7%, estimate +17.8%

  • Total stores 1,970, estimate 1,967

  • Net new stores opened 49, estimate 45.94

Five Below also raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to $8.65 to $9.05 from $7.74 to $8.25. The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was $8.30. It kept its second-half outlook unchanged, citing deteriorating consumer sentiment amid a very challenging macroeconomic environment as the tax-refund sugar high fades.

Snapshot of full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Sees net sales $5.40 billion to $5.48 billion, saw $5.20 billion to $5.30 billion, estimate $5.37 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Sees adjusted EPS $8.65 to $9.05, saw $7.74 to $8.25, estimate $8.30

  • Sees EPS $8.62 to $9.02, saw $7.69 to $8.20

  • Sees comparable sales +6% to +8%, estimate +5.95%

  • Sees net income $480 million to $502 million, saw $429 million to $457 million, estimates $455.3 million

Five Below's concerns about consumers this summer come as working-class families face a cash crunch in the coming months, with Trump-era tax refund tailwinds fading and Iran-related fuel shocks squeezing budgets.

Tax refunds averaging nearly $3,500 have largely helped keep spending resilient, with Walmart, Target, and Lowe's citing refund-driven support in recent earnings calls.

But some retailers warn that the tax refund boost is only temporary. Target said the tax refund benefit will fade in the back half of the year, while Advance Auto Parts expects sales to slow as the refund tailwind disappears.

Low-cost retailers such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree have reported stronger quarterly earnings as they see trading down from wealthier households seeking discounted items.

"They're literally running out of money at the end of the month," Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said in a recent interview with the WSJ. "We're seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they're dipping into savings."

Earlier this month, we showed that personal spending growth far outpaced personal income.

... the personal savings rate has collapsed to a 3-year low.

Read UBS analyst Mark Paski's note from last week, which warned about a potential "fiscal cliff" for consumers in the second half of 2026, as excess cash buffers from refunds begin to fade.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 07:45

Constellation's Three Mile Island Nuclear Restart Gets Boost With FERC Waiver

Constellation's Three Mile Island Nuclear Restart Gets Boost With FERC Waiver

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

Constellation Energy’s plans to restart the Crane nuclear power plant - formerly, and better known as Three Mile Island Unit 1 - were boosted Monday when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a waiver for the company from PJM Interconnection rules. FERC approved Constellation’s waiver request over the objections of PJM’s independent market monitor.

Under the decision, Constellation will be able to transfer 760 MW of Capacity Interconnection Rights, or CIRs, from its Eddystone power plant near Philadelphia to the Crane unit. The transfer will increase the amount of electricity the nuclear unit can deliver to the grid.

Constellation Energy’s Three Mile Island nuclear power plant near Middletown, Pa. The company’s plans to restart the plant’s Unit 1 were boosted when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a waiver for the company from PJM Interconnection rules on June 1, 2026.

Constellation planned to retire two Eddystone units on May 31, 2025, but the Department of Energy has ordered the company to them to keep running under what the DOE has described as an emergency energy shortage.

Under the DOE’s orders, the Eddystone units are not considered capacity resources, making their CIRs free to be transferred, according to Baltimore-based Constellation.

Constellation’s $1.6 billion plan to restart the 835-MW Crane nuclear unit hit a snag when PJM determined that transmission upgrades were needed to safely deliver all the unit’s power to the grid.

Those upgrades — including 765-kV and 500-kV projects — aren’t expected to be finished until December 2030 and could be delayed even longer, preventing full deliveries from the nuclear unit, which could restart in the second half of 2027, Constellation said in its March 31 waiver request at FERC.

Constellation’s request met FERC’s criteria for granting waivers, including that it solves a concrete problem, according to the agency.

“The requested waiver will allow for the transfer of CIRs between the Eddystone units and Crane, which may reduce or eliminate the number of Contingent Facilities for Crane and thereby potentially increase Crane’s interim deliverability and enable Crane to be fully operational before December 31, 2030,” FERC said.

Also, granting the waiver will not have undesirable consequences, such as harming third parties, FERC said.

“Rather, the requested waiver will provide a more efficient use of CIRs due to the Eddystone units’ current inability to use their CIRs as a result of DOE orders requiring them to operate as energy-only resources,” FERC said.

Constellation has a 20-year deal to sell all the energy, capacity and clean energy attributes from the nuclear unit to Microsoft for data centers across PJM’s Mid-Atlantic and Midwest footprint.

In its waiver request, Constellation said that reaching full deliverability status was especially important for the Crane unit. If run for extended periods below their rated power output, the equipment in nuclear units face risk of elevated vibration and wear, which can pose reliability problems, according to the independent power producer.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 07:20

EU Could Lose 1.3 Million Jobs Due To Energy Price Surge From Iran War

EU Could Lose 1.3 Million Jobs Due To Energy Price Surge From Iran War

Up to 1.3 million jobs across the EU are at risk because of the ongoing war in the Middle East, European Commissioner for jobs Roxana Mînzatu said on Wednesday.

"Due to the war in the Middle East, up to 1.3 million jobs are at risk, particularly in energy-intensive industries," Mînzatu said at a press conference.

"Let me also underline that increased energy costs will have a particular negative impact on lower-income households in Europe, which is why we recommend that all member states take targeted measures so that they can support vulnerable groups," the Commissioner added.

According to the report, the EU automotive sector could face ​the biggest layoffs of up to 600,000. Construction, metals, chemicals, transport could lose 56,000 jobs. Some 85,000 jobs in battery projects could be at risk ​and 58,852 ​jobs ⁠in solar manufacturing. Another 4,500 jobs could go in the ​steel sector because of low-carbon ​measures.

In a stagflationary double whammy, Low-income ⁠households could spend an additional 1.4% of income on transport fuel.

As Euronews reports, the warning came during the presentation of the 2026 Spring Semester Package, a bi-annual publication by the EU executive that provides guidance to the 27 member states on the bloc's economic priorities.

The conflict has already had tangible effects on the European economy, with energy prices surging as a result. According to the latest European economic forecasts published in May, the war has slowed European growth while pushing inflation higher. Yesterday we learned that Euro Area inflation topped 3% for the first time since 2023, cementing an ECB rate hike next week.

Economic data on growth and inflation vary sharply across the EU, a disparity the Commission considers a threat to competitiveness.
Key priorities

The package dedicates significant space to employment, focusing on the promotion of quality jobs and how EU countries can tackle persistent shortages of skilled workers in strategically important sectors.

"Improving educational outcomes and better aligning people's skills with labor market needs remain key priorities, also to address labour and skills shortages which are particularly acute in strategic sectors such as cybersecurity, quantum, artificial intelligence and semiconductors," the Semester Package states.

At the press conference, Mînzatu said that 77% of European companies report that skill shortages remain a significant barrier to investment. She identified poor working conditions as the main driver of those shortages.

"We cannot attract talent, we cannot reduce shortages, we cannot improve people's earnings without making sure we have good working conditions," the Commissioner said.

Since the beginning of this mandate, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has made competitiveness one of the Commission's highest priorities as geopolitical uncertainties mount.

The latest Semester Package reflects this, focusing on how Europe can strengthen its position on the global stage.

In particular, the bloc wants to reduce economic barriers in the single market, create a more business-friendly environment for companies and capital, and minimise strategic dependencies – especially on China and the US.

To that end, the Commission is pushing member states towards a more robust industrial policy, greater investment in capital markets, and a simplification agenda that would, among other things, reduce administrative burdens both in the private and public sector.

In parallel, the Commission is working to accelerate economic reforms at the EU level, though progress relies heavily on the willingness of member states to act – a longstanding coordination challenge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 02:45

Iran To Deepen Ties With 'Principal Strategic Partner' China: Ghalibaf

Iran To Deepen Ties With 'Principal Strategic Partner' China: Ghalibaf

Via The Cradle

Iranian Parliament Speaker and special representative for China affairs, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, held the first joint meeting with key economic officials on Wednesday to align Tehran's economic strategy toward Beijing.

The session in Tehran included the ministers of economy, oil, and industry, alongside the central bank governor and the head of the Plan and Budget Organization.

The assembly focused on establishing a unified government approach to elevate bilateral relations and coordinate the administration's economic priorities. During the proceedings, officials evaluated China’s economic conduct amid the US-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the US and Israel.

Participants agreed to submit formal proposals to Ghalibaf to resolve outstanding challenges and deepen cooperation. 

This coordination effort supports a developing strategy to position China as Iran’s “principal strategic partner” while expanding collaboration on regional and international issues.

Roughly 30 China-linked vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a single day in mid-May under the supervision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy. 

These transits follow a “management protocol” established after Iran restricted the waterway to US and Israeli-linked vessels in February. 

While the strait remains largely closed, passage is permitted for commercial ships that comply with Iranian naval procedures and utilize designated corridors 

In parallel, since the 'illegal' US blockade on Iranian ports was implemented in April, Iran has tripled its rail exports of oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to China in an effort to bypass the economic stranglehold. 

Freight trains on the 10,400-kilometer corridor now depart every three to four days, a significant increase from the previous weekly schedule, and halve traditional sea transit times to roughly 15 days.

Despite this, rail capacity remains a modest alternative to maritime shipping; one train carries 60,000 to 70,000 barrels of oil, while large tankers can transport upwards of 2 million barrels.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/04/2026 - 02:00

US Formally Rejects Somaliland Sovereignty In Blow To Israel

US Formally Rejects Somaliland Sovereignty In Blow To Israel

Via Middle East Eye

The US has reaffirmed “the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Somalia, in a move seen as a blow to Somaliland, the breakaway region recently recognized by Israel and close to the United Arab Emirates. In a report to Congress on “Potential Areas for Improved United States Engagement with Somaliland”, the US State Department stated that Somaliland was included in the Federal Republic of Somalia.

“Within that framework, the United States maintains a positive, constructive relationship with Somaliland and continues to explore additional opportunities for engagement with Somaliland authorities,” the report says. Israel became the first country in the world to formally recognize Somaliland on December 26 last year.

Reuters/MEE: Somaliland military armed vehicles take part in a parade during the self-declared Independence Day, with celebrations commemorating their 1991 breakaway from Somalia, on 18 May 2026

The month before, Somaliland President Abdirahman Abdullahi Mohamed secretly visited Israel, meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other “top officials”, according to multiple sources in Somalia and Somaliland. 

Those other officials included Mossad chief David Barnea and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, who visited Somaliland immediately after Israel formally recognised the former British colony’s sovereignty. 

'Recognition is bigger than anything else. Do you have an alternative for us?'

- Rooble Mohamed, Somaliland government adviser

Somaliland has since recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, establishing an embassy there as meetings between Somaliland and Israeli ministers have continued and pro-Israel figures in the media have taken up the cause of independence for the breakaway Somali region. 

Jake Wallis Simons, former editor of the Jewish Chronicle, and Andrew Fox, an associate fellow at the right-wing Henry Jackson Society, were flown out to Somaliland for the May 18th self-declared independence day celebrations in Hargeisa, the region’s capital. Both men are ardent supporters of Israel. The UK’s former defence minister, Conservative MP Gavin Williamson, another keen supporter of Somaliland, was also part of the trip. 

Somaliland is hoping that Israel’s recognition will be followed by the UAE, with Ethiopia, India, Cyprus and Georgia also in its sights. 

Trump not expected to recognize Somaliland

A congressional source told Middle East Eye they did not expect US President Donald Trump’s administration to recognise Somaliland. Though lobbyists, including former Trump officials Tibor Nagy and Peter Pham, had raised the hopes of Somalilanders over US recognition, “there was never a sign that the president would go through with it,” the source said.

Trump has persistently singled out Somalia and Somali Americans for abuse during his second term in office. He has referred to Somalis as “low IQ people” and said that all Somalis are “crooked as hell”. He has said that Somali American congresswoman Ilhan Omar “is garbage”, and that “her friends are garbage”. 

A Somali analyst and policy adviser, who could not be named as he works with officials in both Somalia and Somaliland, told MEE he thought the report to Congress was “a consequential announcement that may effectively close the door on any lingering hopes of US recognition for Somaliland”.

“From a strategic perspective, why settle for part of the cake when the whole cake remains within reach,” he said, referring to US ambitions across the whole of Somalia.

Asked if he agreed with this analysis, Rooble Mohamed, who is a consultant for the Somaliland communications ministry, told MEE: “The United States does not currently recognize Somaliland, so unless there is a formal recognition, such a statement is the reality for now. “The US does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state but has its own arrangements with it as a separate entity from China. This proposal seems to be the same.”

Somaliland's strategic importance for Israel, UAE and US

Somaliland and its location on the Red Sea have become more strategically important to the US, Israel and its allies with the rise of the Houthis in Yemen, the war on Iran and threats to shipping in one of the world’s busiest sea lanes. After it entered the war in Yemen, the UAE began building a ring of bases to control the Gulf of Aden. 

This was done with the help of Israeli military and intelligence officers, even before relations between the two countries were normalised as part of the Abraham Accords in 2020. Berbera, Somaliland’s main port, was part of this circle of bases, which is no longer fully intact following the rift between the UAE and its coalition partner in Yemen, Saudi Arabia.

The State Department’s report to Congress is clear on this matter. “Somaliland’s strategic location near Yemen and the Bab al-Mandab Strait positions it as a potential partner on shared security interests, including freedom of commercial and military navigation from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean,” it says.

via BBC

Israeli and Somaliland officials are in talks about the establishment of an Israeli base at Berbera. The UAE’s DP World also runs its own port there, which is co-owned by the British government through its foreign investment arm. 

“Somaliland authorities have encouraged US investment in minerals and outlined priorities in infrastructure, trade, and economic growth,” the report to Congress says. Somaliland officials have said their soil is rich in lithium, coltan and other sought-after resources, and they have suggested that US access to these riches could come alongside recognition. 

The State Department report also mentions the “ongoing development” of Berbera’s airport and seaports “into a trade and transportation hub for Somaliland and landlocked Ethiopia”, saying this could “create increased opportunities” for the US. However, the report concludes, “regional security concerns and the dispute over Somaliland’s status, including its refusal to cooperate with national authorities, present challenges for investment, banking, and trade.” 

Asked if he thought Israel’s recognition was doing Somaliland more harm than good, given the genocide in Gaza and Israel’s plummeting popularity worldwide and particularly in the Muslim world, Rooble Mohamed said the government in Hargeisa had “no alternatives”.

“Recognition is bigger than anything else. Do you have an alternative for us? We are one of the Muslim countries of the world, I don’t think we are different. I think it’s normal to have a relationship with Israel,” Mohamed said. “It does not mean the Palestinians are our enemies.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 23:25

Colonoscopy: The Most Used Screening Test For Colon Cancer, Here Are The Benefits And Risks

Colonoscopy: The Most Used Screening Test For Colon Cancer, Here Are The Benefits And Risks

Authored by Mercura Wang via The Epoch Times,

Medically reviewed by Jimmy Almond, M.D.

Colonoscopy is the most widely used screening test for colon cancer, which is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States.

It is considered the gold standard and is more accurate than two other common screening methods - stool tests and sigmoidoscopy - because it allows doctors to see the entire colon and remove any potentially problematic polyps during the same procedure.

However, there is ongoing debate about who should undergo a colonoscopy and when. Not everyone will get colon cancer, and the procedure could lead to overdiagnosis as well as rare but serious side effects.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock What Does A Colonoscopy Do?

The colon is the main part of the large intestine and is about 5 feet long in adults. The rectum stores stool until it passes through the anus. Together, they make up most of the large intestine, absorbing nutrients and converting liquid waste into solid stool.

During a colonoscopy, a gastroenterologist inserts a thin, flexible tube with a lighted camera (colonoscope) through the anus to examine the lining of the rectum and colon. The tube introduces air to gently inflate the colon so the doctor can see more clearly. If polyps or other abnormalities are found, they can often be removed immediately using tools such as forceps, snares, or electrocautery devices passed through the scope.

The procedure takes about 20 to 45 minutes.

Most colonoscopies in the United States are performed under sedation or anesthesia, so patients may sleep through the entire procedure. Those who choose lighter sedation - or none at all - may feel some discomfort.

The primary purpose of colonoscopy is to prevent or detect colon cancer.

Beyond cancer screening, colonoscopy can be used to both detect and treat a range of problems in the colon and rectum, including polyps, ulcerations, and diverticula (small pouches that can form in the colon wall).

It can also help determine the underlying causes of symptoms such as chronic diarrhea, rectal bleeding, and changes in bowel habits. During the procedure, doctors can identify inflamed tissue, sources of bleeding, and other abnormalities in the colon.

Who Should Have A Colonoscopy, And When?

According to the current guidelines, colonoscopy is recommended for most adults starting at age 45, and repeated every 10 years if results are normal. More frequent screenings may be recommended depending on any abnormal findings.

People at higher risk are suggested to begin screening earlier - at age 40 or 10 years younger than the age at which a first-degree relative was diagnosed with colorectal cancer, whichever comes first.

In older adults, colonoscopy carries a greater risk of complications. After age 75, the decision to continue screening should be made in consultation with a doctor based on potential benefits, risks, and patient preferences.

Beyond the main guidelines, screening recommendations continue to evolve. For instance, some guidelines recommend initiating screening at age 50. In addition, emerging evidence suggests that follow-up intervals after a normal colonoscopy may be safely extended in some people. A 2024 study found that people without a family history of colorectal cancer and with an initial normal colonoscopy may be able to wait up to 15 years before repeat screening.

Some experts suggest weighing the benefits and risks. For a person with a family history of colon cancer, it may be beneficial to keep a close watch, while for someone at low risk, it may be a different story.

These differences highlight continuing uncertainty and the need for individualized clinical judgment as evidence continues to evolve.

In addition, colonoscopy may be avoided or require careful consideration in people who:

  • Have inadequate bowel preparation
  • Have a bowel perforation, severe inflammation, or infection
  • Have unstable health or significant medical conditions (advanced heart, lung, kidney, or liver disease)
  • Have a life expectancy of less than 10 years, or risks that outweigh the potential benefits
  • Have blood-clotting disorders
How Effective Is Colonoscopy?

"Colonoscopy has a sensitivity of 88 percent to 98 percent for identifying advanced, precancerous polyps," Dr. Steven Lee-Kong, chief of colorectal surgery at Hackensack University Medical Center, told The Epoch Times.

The miss rate may be influenced by factors such as inadequate bowel preparation, the type of polyps being examined, and the skill of the endoscopist, noted Dr. Rucha Shah, a gastroenterologist. Small or flat polyps are harder to detect, and in some cases, the entire colon may not be fully visualized.

Colonoscopy allows doctors to remove precancerous polyps during the same procedure - something other screening tests cannot do. Removing these polyps has been shown to significantly reduce the risk of death from colorectal cancer, with one study reporting a 53 percent reduction in mortality associated with polyp removal.

However, recent studies have offered additional perspectives.

For example, colonoscopy is used much more frequently for screening in the United States than in Canada, where only about 15 percent of procedures are performed for screening, and most are diagnostic, yet colorectal cancer survival rates remain similar in both countries.

A major 2022 Nordic-European Initiative on Colorectal Cancer study found a modest reduction in colorectal cancer mortality with colonoscopy screening, no significant difference in overall death rates, and a low rate of serious complications.

What Are The Risks And Complications Of Colonoscopy?

Colonoscopy is generally safe, but like all medical procedures, it carries some potential risks and complications. Most are minor and resolve quickly.

  • Gas, Bloating, Cramping, or Stomach Discomfort: These symptoms are mainly caused by air introduced during the exam and temporary changes in gut bacteria from the bowel preparation. These typically resolve within a day or two, although some people may notice symptoms lasting a few weeks.
  • Nausea, Vomiting, Dizziness, or Dehydration: These symptoms may occur as a result of the osmotic laxative used for bowel preparation.
  • Mild Redness or Tenderness at the IV Insertion Site: This may occur in the arm where the intravenous line was placed.
  • Medication Side Effects: Sedation or anesthesia may cause temporary changes in blood pressure, rash, or breathing difficulties.
  • Electrolyte Imbalances or Kidney Problems: In some cases, the bowel preparation may lead to low levels of potassium, sodium, or magnesium, or affect kidney function.
Less Common And More Serious Side Effects

Certain complications are directly related to the colonoscopy procedure itself.

  • Bleeding: Bleeding may occur after a biopsy or polyp removal, usually during or shortly after the procedure, although it can occasionally be delayed for up to one week. It is typically minor, with significant bleeding being rare and occurring in less than 1 percent of cases. The risk increases based on the size of the removed polyp.
  • Perforation: Perforation during colonoscopy is very rare (less than one in 1,000 procedures) and involves a tear in the intestinal wall that can allow bowel contents to leak into the abdomen, potentially causing infection. It may occur due to mechanical injury from the scope or instruments, overinflation of the bowel, or thermal damage during polyp removal. Symptoms typically include pain during or shortly after the procedure, although small perforations may appear later. Untreated cases can lead to fever and abdominal infection.
  • Postpolypectomy Syndrome: This occurs when heat from electrocoagulation (the removal of tissue with an electrical current) injures the colon wall during polyp removal. It is rare, occurring in about three to four per 10,000 colonoscopies. Symptoms may include fever, localized abdominal pain, and an increased white blood cell count.
  • Splenic Injury: This rare but potentially life-threatening complication can occur when the spleen is directly injured or torn by traction during the procedure. It typically causes pain in the upper left abdomen that may radiate to the left shoulder and can progress to low blood pressure and shock.
  • Infections: In rare cases, an infection may develop after a colonoscopy and require antibiotic treatment.

Cardiopulmonary events are related to the anesthesia or sedation used during colonoscopy. They can range from temporary issues such as low blood pressure, low oxygen levels, and fainting to more serious complications, including respiratory distress, irregular heartbeat, and acute coronary events.

Contact your doctor if you:

  • Have abdominal pain that does not improve after passing gas
  • Develop new or worsening abdominal pain
  • Feel nauseated or cannot keep fluids down
  • Notice blood in your stool
  • Develop a fever (100.4 F or higher)
  • Are unable to pass stool or gas
How Do I Prepare For A Colonoscopy?

"A successful colonoscopy hinges on a thoroughly cleansed colon, which is achieved through a standard preparation protocol involving dietary changes and a bowel-cleansing agent," Lee-Kong said.

  • Special Diet: This bowel-cleaning process usually starts on the day before a colonoscopy. Lee-Kong recommends a low-fiber or clear liquid diet, while avoiding solid foods and red-colored liquids. Avoid fruit punch, cranberry juice, red wine, and red sports drinks. Medical professionals often advise avoiding red, orange, or purple foods and drinks, as the coloring can resemble blood or inflammation in the colon. Clear liquids commonly recommended the day before the procedure include black coffee, plain tea, fat-free broth, gelatin, clear sports drinks without added color, strained fruit juices, and water.
  • Bowel Preparation: This typically involves laxative solutions or tablets designed to fully cleanse the colon before the procedure. Patients are prescribed a laxative solution, often a polyethylene glycol (PEG) or sodium phosphate formula, to induce frequent bowel movements and clear the colon. The 'split-dose' method, where the solution is taken in two parts - the evening before and the morning of the procedure - is commonly recommended for a more effective cleanse, according to Lee-Kong. Other common options include sulfate-based solutions and magnesium citrate products. Some regimens combine laxatives like bisacodyl with PEG solutions or use over-the-counter mixes such as MiraLAX with clear sports drinks.
  • Temporary Discontinuation of Medications: Before a colonoscopy, you may be asked to temporarily stop certain medications, such as aspirin, ibuprofen, naproxen, or other blood thinners, as they can increase the risk of bleeding. You will also usually need to stop taking iron supplements a few days before the test because they can darken stool and make it harder to see inside the colon.
  • General Preparations: On the day of the colonoscopy, you may be allowed to wear dentures, but you may be asked to remove them before the procedure because they can shift during sedation and potentially obstruct the airway. Avoid bringing jewelry or valuables to prevent theft, and don't wear nail polish as it may interfere with oxygen sensor readings.
  • Transportation Plan: Since sedation is used during a colonoscopy, you will need someone to drive you home afterward, as you may feel drowsy or dizzy.

According to Lee-Kong and Shah, some groups may need additional preparation.

  • Pregnant Women: Colonoscopy is generally avoided during pregnancy. If it has to be done, oral laxatives are generally avoided, and tap water enemas may be used instead. Sodium phosphate preparations are particularly avoided due to potential risks for both mother and fetus.
  • Older Adults (Especially Older Than 75): PEG-based preparations are preferred to reduce the risk of electrolyte imbalances.
  • People With Kidney or Heart Disease: Sodium phosphate solutions are generally avoided.
  • People With Chronic Constipation: A more intensive, multiday preparation may be needed.
  • People With Diabetes: Medication adjustments are required to prevent low blood sugar during preparation.
What Can I Expect After A Colonoscopy?

Recovery is usually quick, with most people returning to normal within about one day. After the procedure, you will spend 30 to 50 minutes recovering at the clinic while the sedative wears off.

Once home, you should rest for the remainder of the day and avoid driving, operating machinery, and drinking alcohol.

You can typically return to your regular diet, but bland, low-fiber foods may be better tolerated during the first 24 hours, since you may experience mild bloating or cramping from the air used during the procedure.

If polyps were removed, you might be advised to follow a more specific diet and avoid certain medications such as blood thinners.

What Are The Alternatives To Colonoscopy?

Colonoscopy isn't the only option - and it may not be your preference. According to a 2025 study, around 75 percent of adults eligible for screening prefer a noncolonoscopy option - such as stool-based or blood-based tests - as their first choice.

Several alternatives to colonoscopy are available, and they are often preferred due to lower invasiveness, patient preference, or medical contraindications, Lee-Kong said. Noninvasive stool-based tests are a primary alternative and include the following:

  • Fecal Immunochemical Test (FIT): This home-based annual test detects human blood in stool samples and does not require dietary restrictions. If blood is detected, a repeat test or follow-up colonoscopy may be needed. It has a reported 97 percent accuracy for detecting colon cancer.
  • Multitargeted Stool DNA Test Plus FIT: This test combines FIT with stool DNA analysis using a single sample to check for both blood and abnormal DNA every three years, although it requires collecting an entire bowel movement. It can detect up to 93 percent of cancerous lesions.
  • High-Sensitivity Guaiac-Based Fecal Occult Blood Testing (gFOBT): This noninvasive screening test uses a chemical reaction to detect hidden blood in stool, which may indicate colorectal cancer or polyps. Compared with older gFOBTs, it detects cancers more effectively but often requires dietary restrictions and avoiding vitamin C supplements for three days before testing to reduce false-positive results.

"While convenient, a positive result on any of these tests necessitates a follow-up colonoscopy," Lee-Kong said. A follow-up colonoscopy is generally recommended within nine months.

Other visual and imaging tests, which also require bowel preparation, include the following:

  • Flexible Sigmoidoscopy: Uses a scope to examine only the lower third of the colon. It can be performed while the patient is awake and can detect about 70 percent of polyps or tumors, although it does not assess the upper colon.
  • Virtual Colonoscopy (CT Colonography): This noninvasive imaging test uses a CT scan after air is introduced into the rectum. It can detect most larger tumors but may miss smaller polyps, which could still require a follow-up colonoscopy for removal.

Lee-Kong noted that these alternatives may be particularly appropriate for average-risk people who decline colonoscopy and for frail older people or others for whom the risks outweigh the benefits.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 20:55

Is John Cornyn Trying To Sabotage Ken Paxton?

Is John Cornyn Trying To Sabotage Ken Paxton?

Texas Republicans handed Sen. John Cornyn one of the most humiliating defeats in the state's modern political history in this year's primary runoff. A week after being clobbered by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, he is amplifying a Libertarian candidate, in an apparent attempt to siphon conservative votes from Ken Paxton in the general election in November.

In a post on X, Cornyn shared a Houston Public Media interview profiling Libertarian nominee Ted Brown, whose 2026 Senate campaign is built around courting conservatives dissatisfied with the Republican primary results.

The article itself makes it very clear that Brown has the potential to be a spoiler for Paxton. "Most polling shows Texas' U.S. Senate race between state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, and Austin state Rep. James Talarico, his Democratic opponent, as extremely close," it opens. "That potentially creates an opening for a third-party candidate, Libertarian Ted Brown, to shape the outcome."

Brown pulled more than 267,000 votes in the 2024 Texas Senate race, a record performance for a Libertarian candidate in the state, and Cornyn just handed him a megaphone.

Cornyn had initially signaled he would fall in line behind the GOP nominee.

"I've spent most of my time in the Senate building the Republican party in Texas and in the U.S. Senate, and I've always supported the Republican ticket, and I intend to do so again in this general election," he said when he addressed his supporters last week after the election results. "I've said throughout this race that I trust the voters of Texas, and they've made their decision, and I must respect it."

Since then, however, he has been walking back that pledge.

"I stand by everything I said during the whole campaign," Cornyn told reporters on Monday, and implied that Paxton can't win the race.

"I'd prefer a Republican to somebody like James Talarico," Cornyn said. "But I'm going to concentrate most of my efforts on trying to keep the Senate by helping some of what I consider to be the more winnable races around the country."

Brown understands exactly what he is doing. He told Houston Public Media he is appealing to voters who "aren't satisfied with the primary results." When asked about playing spoiler, he pushed back with characteristic flair: "Frankly, you can't spoil something that's rotten and putrid to begin with," Brown told Houston Public Media. He is clearly hunting for precisely the kind of voter a bitter, defeated incumbent might quietly nudge his direction.

Whether Cornyn intended that outcome or simply failed to think through the signal his post sent is almost beside the point. The effect is the same. A senator who lost to Paxton's MAGA-aligned coalition is now boosting a third-party candidate whose entire pitch rests on making conservatives feel justified in abandoning the Republican nominee.

Paxton enters the general election with real structural advantages. He has won statewide elections in Texas three times already, while his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, is introducing himself to Texans statewide, giving Republicans the advantage of defining Talarico based on his controversial statements and positions on gender and other issues out of step with mainstream Texas voters.

While polls suggest a tight race, the prediction markets see what's coming. Polymarket and Kalshi both give Paxton roughly a 60% chance of winning, compared to Talarico's roughly 40%. Talarico has never led in the prediction markets. Texas remains a fundamentally red state, and the fundamentals favor Paxton.

Promoting a Libertarian candidate who openly fishes for unhappy Republicans while simultaneously calling the Republican nominee a crook sends a message to Texas conservatives that it's okay not to back the Republican candidate, effectively validating the MAGA base's concerns about Cornyn.

While Paxton is still favored, Cornyn just made this race harder without delivering any discernible benefit to the party he claims to support. Talarico isn't the only person to gain from Cornyn amplifying the Libertarian targeting conservative voters. Cornyn himself may see a Paxton defeat as validation of his primary campaign message that he was the best candidate to lead the GOP to victory.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 20:30

Scientists Boost Battery, Fuel Cell Performance By Over 300%

Scientists Boost Battery, Fuel Cell Performance By Over 300%

Authored by Neetika Walter via Interesting Engineering,

Researchers in South Korea have developed a new catalyst design strategy that boosts the efficiency of reactions used in batteries and hydrogen fuel cells without changing the catalyst itself.

New catalyst approach could improve fuel cells and batteries  (Representational image)Shutterstock

The team, led by Professor Seung Jun Hwang of POSTECH and Professor Jaeyune Ryu of Seoul National University, found that adjusting the electrical environment around a catalyst can significantly improve its performance. The approach could help reduce energy losses in next-generation energy systems while improving efficiency and stability.

Catalysts are materials that speed up chemical reactions. They are essential components in technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells and metal-air batteries, where they help drive the reactions that generate electricity.

Traditionally, researchers improve catalysts by changing the central metal, such as iron, cobalt, or nickel, or by redesigning the surrounding molecular structure known as a ligand. The new study takes a different route by leaving the catalyst largely unchanged and instead modifying the electric field around it.

Electric Fields Drive Gains

The researchers demonstrated that placing positively charged ions, known as cations, near the catalyst creates a localized electric field that influences how reactions proceed.

The team focused on the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR), a key electrochemical process that generates electricity in fuel cells and metal-air batteries. Improving this reaction has long been a goal because it directly affects device efficiency and energy consumption.

Experiments showed that the share of the desired reaction pathway increased from roughly 12 percent to as much as 52 percent when the electric field was introduced. This allowed the reaction to occur more efficiently while requiring less energy.

According to the researchers, the results suggest that catalyst performance can be tuned through environmental control rather than by redesigning catalyst materials from scratch. Such an approach could simplify future catalyst development and lower costs associated with creating new materials.

Beyond Batteries And Fuel

The implications may extend beyond energy storage and hydrogen technologies. The researchers believe the same principle could be applied to catalysts used for carbon dioxide conversion and environmentally friendly hydrogen production.

Many clean-energy technologies rely on catalysts to control complex chemical reactions. Being able to improve those reactions by adjusting local electrical conditions could provide a new tool for designing more efficient systems.

"This study demonstrates that reaction properties can be precisely controlled solely through the surrounding electrical environment, without changing the structure of the catalyst itself," said Hwang.

The researchers say the findings open a new direction for catalyst engineering by shifting attention from the catalyst's structure to its operating environment.

The oxygen reduction reaction examined in the study is a core process in hydrogen fuel cells, which generate electricity from hydrogen and oxygen, as well as metal-air batteries that use oxygen from the atmosphere as part of the energy storage process.

"We expect it to present a new direction for developing next-generation batteries, fuel cells, and eco-friendly energy catalyst technologies," Hwang added.

If the approach can be scaled and applied across different catalyst systems, it could help improve the performance of a wide range of clean-energy technologies without requiring entirely new catalyst materials.

The study was published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 19:15

Central Bank Gold Buying Rebounds In April From Dramatic March Selloff

Central Bank Gold Buying Rebounds In April From Dramatic March Selloff

First the good news: according to the latest World Gold Council update, central banks, a key pillar of the bullish case for gold, have returned to adding holdings in April after notable selling in March sent the price of the precious metal tumbling. The 17 ton purchase represents a turnaround from steep sales in March, which at nearly 30 tons were the largest monthly gold sales in years, driven almost entirely by Turkey. Poland remained the top buyer in the month, while China accelerated its pace of purchases. 

According to WGC, Poland remained be the top buyer in the month (14t), while China intensified its pace of purchases: its 8t net purchase was the highest since December 2024 and extends its current buying run to 18 consecutive months. The Czech Republic shows similar consistency in purchases, having bought 3t in April, its 38th consecutive monthly purchase. Meanwhile, Russia continues its sales streak this month (6t), with y-t-d sales of 22t.

Reported activity in April and y-t-d was concentrated in: 

  • National Bank of Poland drove much of April’s buying activity, having bought 14t. This brings Poland’s y-t-d gold purchases to 45t with its gold reserves at595t or about 30% of its total reserves.
  • People’s Bank of China added 8t to its gold reserves during the month, highest since December 2024. Official gold reserves now stand at 9% of total reserves or around 2,322t. China has been consistently purchasing gold over the past 18 consecutive months.
  • Czech National Bank’s modest but consistent 2t net purchases in April brings its gold reserves to 79t or 6% of its total reserves.
  • Meanwhile, Central Bank of Uzbekistan sold 1t this month, though on a y-t-d basis, it remains a net purchaser (24t) and is second only to Poland. Uzbekistan’s reserves make up 88% of its total reserves or around 414t.
  • Central Bank of Russia continued it recent streak of net sales for the fourth month with reported April net sales of 6t.
  • March’s top seller, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey reported virtually flat gold reserves in April, with weekly data showing that short-term gold/USD swaps matured in April, leaving only longer-term (1-3 month) gold/USD swaps outstanding. More on Turkey’s recent reserve management operations can be found in our recently published Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026.
  • Eastern European and Asian central banks continue to dominate gold purchases with consistent purchases. Over the past 36 months, both regions have purchased 12t and 11t per month on average collectively. Global central banks activity shows average net purchases of 29t over the same period (Chart 2).

Now the bad news: according to Goldman, even as the rebound signals a return to sturdy central bank demand, it’s trending at a fraction of last year’s average pace. Meanwhile, the driver of last year's tremendous move higher which pushed gold above $5000, has yet to return: the furious ETF buying that characterized the meltup phase in gold, is not there; in fact, ETFs continue to sell as all momentum-chasing liquidity has landed in such areas as chip and memory stocks.

That underscores that the market is currently more focused on the near-term headwinds for the bullion rather than its structural tailwinds.

Meanwhile, with Treasury yields and the dollar grinding higher as the US economy proves surprisingly resilient in the face of elevated oil prices, and with positioning on the back foot, the path ahead for gold remains challenged.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/03/2026 - 18:50

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