Helicopters And Poison? 32 Charged In $20M Mount Everest Rescue Scam

Nepal’s Central Investigation Bureau investigates a large-scale insurance fraud operation in the Himalayan trekking sector. Authorities charge 32 individuals - including trekking company operators, guides, helicopter rescue coordinators, hospital owners, and doctors - with organized crime and fraud. The scheme allegedly triggers unnecessary and expensive helicopter evacuations that insurers foot the bill for.

According to The Independent, the probe focuses on activities between 2022 and 2025 across popular routes that include the path to Everest Base Camp, Annapurna, Manaslu, and Langtang. Investigators examine more than 4,700 international patient cases at implicated Kathmandu hospitals and review thousands of helicopter flights. They identify hundreds of rescues as fraudulent or exaggerated, with operators allegedly inflating symptoms, forging medical records, and billing single flights as multiple separate emergencies to multiply payouts.

Between 2022 and 2025, investigators identified 4,782 foreign patients treated across the implicated hospitals. Of these, 171 cases were confirmed as fake rescues. Over that period, Era International Hospital received deposits of more than $15.87 million linked to these activities. Shreedhi International Hospital received over $1.22 million.

Among rescue operators, Mountain Rescue Service conducted 171 fraudulent rescues out of 1,248 total charter flights, claiming approximately $10.31 million from insurers. Nepal Charter Service carried out 75 fake rescues from 471 flights, claiming $8.2 million. Everest Experience and Assistance was linked to 71 suspicious rescues from 601 flights, with insurance claims totalling $11.04 million.

In one instance that illustrates the brazenness of the scheme, police documented a case in which four tourists were rescued on a single helicopter flight, on the same date, using the same helicopter and manifest. Insurance claims were nonetheless submitted as multiple separate rescues, with the total rescue bill reaching $31,100, plus a separate hospital bill of $11,890. -Kathmandu Post

According to the report, the rescue companies "managed to extract nearly $20m in payouts from international insurance companies for rescues that were unnecessary or, in some cases, completely fabricated."

The fraud centers on paperwork manipulation and kickback arrangements among trekking firms, hospitals, and helicopter companies. A common tactic involves claiming routine ailments - mild fatigue, stomach issues, or early signs of altitude discomfort - as acute emergencies that require immediate airlift. One documented pattern shows four trekkers on a single charter flight billed as four distinct rescue missions, turning a modest private flight cost into a $30,000-plus insurance claim. Hospitals submit charges for treatments that never occur or prove unnecessary. The scheme primarily targets travelers from countries with straightforward insurance policies, such as the UK, Australia, and Canada.

Some witness statements mention guides adding baking powder to food or giving clients excessive medication and water to induce nausea and symptoms that mimic altitude sickness. Media reports highlight these details and fuel speculation about deliberate poisoning on Everest routes. Nepal police, however, state clearly that the official investigation uncovers no evidence of actual poisoning. In their April 2026 public statement, the Central Investigation Bureau declares: “To date, the official investigation has not found any evidence of ‘poisoning.’ No facts have been found to suggest that poisonous substances were mixed into food.”

The distinction matters. The scam primarily affects trekkers on lower-altitude trails rather than the roughly 500 technical climbers who attempt the Everest summit each year. High-altitude summit expeditions operate under stricter medical protocols, oxygen support, and professional oversight that make staged emergencies far more difficult to execute undetected. The Everest name draws global attention, but the bulk of the documented fraud occurs on approach hikes and other regional circuits where helicopter access remains relatively straightforward.

The investigation highlights systemic weaknesses in Nepal’s rapidly growing adventure tourism industry. Helicopter services, essential for genuine high-altitude emergencies, expand quickly but operate with limited oversight. Earlier government attempts to require tourism authority approval for rescues fail to curb the practice. Insurers now face pressure to tighten verification, while legitimate rescues risk greater scrutiny and delays.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 18:00

Texas Investigating Islamic Tribunal For Allegedly Operating Sharia Law Court

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced Monday an investigation into a Dallas-based group accused of operating as a sharia law court.

Protester David Wright (L) speaks with counterprotester Vincent Simon, a Muslim, as Melissa Yassini holds a sign across the street from a mosque in Richardson, Texas, on Dec. 12, 2015. LM Otero/AP Photo

​In a press release, Paxton said he requested documents from the group, known as the Islamic Tribunal, regarding allegations that it was issuing rulings based on sharia law.

According to the release, the Islamic Tribunal has “reportedly sought to replace actual courts of law and to evade neutral, generally applicable state and federal laws.”

Paxton warned, “Anyone or any entity that seeks to subvert the codified state and federal laws of this country will be stopped dead in their tracks. If the Islamic Tribunal is undermining the rule of law or misleading Texans about the legal authority it claims to hold, my office will ensure its operation is shut down.”

​“This is America, and we will not be governed by sharia law,” he added.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Islamic Tribunal for comment.

The organization described itself on its website in April 2025 as a “unique institution” in America. It said its 2014 establishment aimed “to set a precedence [sic] that will be emulated and duplicated throughout the country.”

The organization has since changed the wording on its website, saying it wanted to clarify its operations amid the controversy.

“The Islamic Tribunal wishes to clarify the nature of its work in light of recent public statements,” the group stated. “The Tribunal does not function as a court of law and does not issue legally binding judgments.”

​The website noted the group’s role was limited to mediation and religious arbitration requested by members of the Muslim community.

​“Our experienced imams are here to listen, support, and offer faith-based, non-binding spiritual guidance to anyone seeking clarity or comfort. We provide a welcoming and confidential space rooted in Islamic ethics and in full respect of U.S. and Texas law.”

​Paxton claims the Islamic Tribunal asserts jurisdiction over all aspects of Muslim life, seeks to impose sharia law for Texas Muslims’ disputes, and misrepresents its decisions as final judgments endorsed by the Texas judicial system.

​While the First Amendment allows religious organizations the right to govern themselves, it doesn’t allow a religious organization to act as a court, apply foreign laws that conflict with Texas or federal law, or issue rulings that imply government authority, according to Paxton.

​Doing so would violate Texas law, he added.

The demand for documents is the latest move in targeting what many fear as the establishment of Muslim enclaves and sharia law, which is based on the religion of Islam.

​Paxton has taken a series of legal actions against Islamic groups and Muslim-centric developments in recent months. In December, he filed a lawsuit against a 400-acre Muslim enclave known as EPIC City, named after the East Plano Islamic Center, which is one of its developers.

​EPIC’s developers have denied an intent to establish sharia law or break fair housing laws.

​In the previous year, Gov. Greg Abbott signed House Bill 4211 and Senate Bill 17 into law. The first bans residential property developers from creating exclusionary compounds, and specifically cited the EPIC project during the signing. The second prohibits transnational criminal organizations and foreign adversaries, including Iran, from purchasing land.

​Abbott also signed a proclamation designating the Muslim Brotherhood, which has ties to the Hamas terrorist group, and the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) as foreign terrorist organizations and transnational criminal organizations.

​CAIR filed a lawsuit against Abbott and Paxton in response, calling Abbott’s proclamation “unconstitutional and defamatory.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 17:40

The Left Is Baffled - But Still Repulsed - By The White Working Class

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

After failing to win Congress and the presidency in 2024, the Democrats conducted an internal postmortem of what went wrong.

While they predictably did not divulge the full results, everyone knew what they had found.

Their obsessions with the low side of 30/70 issues had especially alienated Democrats from white middle- and working-class voters. Yet middle-class whites still comprise about 40–50 percent of the population and are perhaps overrepresented in voter turnout.

Democrats realize that their fixations on biological males competing in women’s sports, open borders and millions of illegal entries, radical green agendas, DEI-driven racial essentialism, and massive government entitlements rife with fraud have alienated the middle classes in general and white middle- and working-class voters in particular.

But since Democrat ideologues cannot shed their ideological straitjackets, they have instead tried to finesse the very problem that cost them the 2024 election.

They recall, in particular, the successful blueprint that won them the 2020 election. During that campaign, Joe Biden largely remained out of public view, hiding in his basement, while his handlers reconstructed him as a kind of waxen effigy of “good ol’ Joe from Scranton,” a throwback to the 1970s.

Once the cognitively diminished Biden was elected, his hard-left, Obama-era operatives behind that ossified, working-man veneer enacted the most radical four-year agenda in modern American history.

On the one hand, Democrats claim they will field candidates who can at least playact as good ol’ boy farmers and salt-of-the-earth welders.

The 2024 Democratic vice presidential candidate, Humpty Dumpty lookalike Tim Walz, talked incessantly about driving a pickup truck. He assured us he could change its oil and tried to portray himself as a genuine hunter. Yet these claims often came across as inauthentic, strained, and condescending; the more Walz tried to present himself as a man of the people, the more he appeared buffoonish.

The 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, Pete Buttigieg, became a caricature of the sanctimonious, credentialed technocrat—self-righteously and arrogantly projecting expertise without much humility or even a shred of the common touch. As transportation secretary, Buttigieg used to pontificate about racist freeway clover leaves, rather than addressing the more immediate problems posed by the gridlocked and decrepit condition of the nation’s highways.

Now, as the 2028 election looms, Buttigieg has followed Democratic central casting and undergone a complete reboot, reemerging with a beard, a trucker cap, and a flannel shirt.

No matter, he still sounds as pedantic as ever in his riff on green energy and “diversity.”

Wannabe president and lame-duck California governor Gavin Newsom is also suddenly reinventing himself. He is now surrealistically claiming that, as the son of an appellate court judge, and raised as an intimate of the billionaire Getty family, that he scarcely survived on Wonder Bread and macaroni, was disabled by dyslexia, and struggled in a broken home typical of the poor white working classes.

To win back the white working class this time around, Democratic insiders are apparently not content merely to recycle—or astroturf—familiar, anemic candidates into veritable Obama-era “clingers.”

Now they are seeking out brand new faces to present as supposedly more authentic white working men. They believe that they have at last found the real thing in traditionally red Texas state legislator and Presbyterian minister James Talarico.

He talks nonstop like a left-winger, but with the voice of an evangelical Bible thumper. Talarico just won the Texas Democratic Senate primary over radical, racialist bomb thrower Jasmine Crockett. Surely, his handlers believe, he will do the impossible and flip the good old boys of Texas to the new Democratic agenda?

He may yet, but the Harvard-educated Talarico’s Christianity seems more like Latin American left-wing “liberation theology” than Texas-style evangelicalism. Talarico certainly has a long history of radical elite social media commentary, and he urges Texans not to demonize trans people and illegal aliens but instead go after “billionaires and their puppet politicians.”

Perhaps such class warfare is seen as a good start for the Left’s new, supposedly working-man’s radical populist. But it turns out Pastor Talarico is actually to the left of radical left Democrats. In the past, he had pandered to the very wing of the party that had lost its elections, with offerings like “God is non-binary” or notions that Christians have divine guidance to let transgender males play in women’s sports.

But the damning pièce de résistance of this supposedly authentic, blue-collar, white evangelical preacher was a previous post from Talarico: “Radicalized white men are the greatest domestic terrorist threat in our country.”

Democrat politicos and handlers also perhaps thought they had finally found the real thing in current Maine Senate primary candidate Graham Platner. Despite growing up in affluence and attending the tony Hotchkiss preparatory school, Platner’s makeover seemed far more genuine.

Indeed, The Washington Post gushed about him, saying he was “a rugged guy,” while Politico bragged that at last Democrats had found a MAGA everyman but—better yet—to the left of Bernie Sanders.

Platner joined the Marines, saw combat tours, and was variously a bartender and oysterman. But Platner may have gone a bit too far to serve as the Democrats’ new white working-class poster boy.

It was recently revealed that he had been tattooed with a skull that was the exact insignia of the SS-Totenkopfverbände (“Death’s Head Units”). These particular SS units were the worst of the worst of the psychopathic paramilitary organizations of Hitler’s Third Reich, often having been chosen to serve as guards in Nazi extermination camps.

Platner’s past social media postings didn’t help his often-lame excuses for the tattoo—although he knew as a leftist he would survive the brouhaha, given the antisemitic saturation of the new Democrat Party, and the exemptions provided to the “right people.” Indeed, he trumped Talarico’s disdain for the very demographic he was supposed to sew up, with the revelation that he had once described white rural Americans as “racists and stupid” while claiming that he was a communist and calling for armed resistance.

The reason why these white working-class veneers will likely not work is not just that they are strained facades, designed to make palatable an otherwise unpalatable agenda to Middle America.

They also ring untrue because the white working class has been so demonized by the Left that it will likely never return to the Democratic Party.

Consider just the pejoratives that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden have employed to stereotype and ridicule Trump supporters and the social-economical-rural environment that supposedly produced them: clingers, deplorables, irredeemables, dregs, chumps, semi-fascists, and garbage.

In other words, the hatred of and the condescension toward the white working class is baked into the new bicoastal and elitist Left and Democratic Party. It cannot be finessed or masked—as the postings of even their supposedly new working-class heroes attest.

Just recently, liberal comedian Jimmy Kimmel went off on the new Homeland Security Secretary, former Oklahoma senator Markwayne Mullin, blasting him as a mere “plumber”: “We have a plumber protecting us from terrorism now. It worked for Super Mario. Why not Markwayne?”

Aside from the fact that plumbers are among the most skilled and important of all the critical tradesmen, plumbing was just one chapter in Mullin’s rich and varied career. He has an impressive record as a former ten-year congressman and a U.S. senator. He also helped turn his family business into one of the largest plumbing supply services in Oklahoma. But to Kimmel, all that was condensed to being a “plumber,” as if his left-wing audience would likewise see a plumber reaching the highest levels of government as a joke.

The View cohost Joy Behar just trashed Trump by claiming his supporters (half the country) were “poorly educated”—an odd thing to say when her liberal cohost, Whoopi Goldberg, is a high school dropout.

While it is true that leftist news and commentary outlets have greater percentages of college graduates in their audiences, that fact hardly translates into them being better-informed listeners.

Some polls, like the 2021 Heartland Institute’s survey, showed that the conservative talk radio followers, on average, were better at answering factual questions about politics than their leftist counterparts. That sounds reasonable given the current epidemic of campus grade inflation, nonmeritocratic admissions, therapeutic curricula, and the ubiquity of off-topic, left-wing faculty propagandists on campus.

In truth, the new radical left-wing Democratic Party is an elitist entity with a poorly disguised contempt for the white working class. That hatred is omnipresent and so emerges in the most unexpected fashion.

Remember the private text exchanges between disgraced FBI paramours Lisa Page and Peter Strzok, in which Trump voters were casually caricatured as Walmart shoppers defined by their supposed stench?

Or recall CNN reporter Marc Caputo’s snide jab at Trump rally attendees: “If you put everyone’s mouths together in this video, you’d get a full set of teeth.”

The locus classicus target of this bias was the vice-presidential candidacy of Sarah Palin, who, throughout the 2008 campaign, was smeared by leftists as “poor white trash.”

To New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, Palin was nothing more than a “gun-toting hockey mom.” Talk show host David Letterman joked that Palin had bought makeup from Bloomingdale’s to update her “slutty flight attendant look.” The smug Letterman then added, “One awkward moment for Sarah Palin at the Yankee game, during the seventh inning, her daughter was knocked up by Alex Rodriguez.” Palin’s daughter Willow was 14 years old at the time.

The Left simply does not get it, or rather, has it backward. You do not need to look or act like the white working class to feel genuine affinity with it. Billionaire and former Manhattanite Donald Trump is proof enough of that.

The key is not whether you wear a suit or a trucker’s hat or grow a beard, but whether you show sincere concern for an often now-demonized demographic long written off by coastal elites as losers during globalization’s heyday.

So far, the smugness and lack of any such genuine empathy will doom the latest silly Democrat gambit. Sincerity cannot be finessed with tattoos, beards, or trucker caps—not by the media or Hollywood, and certainly not by the likes of Pete Buttigieg, Tim Walz, or James Talarico.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 16:20

Consumer Credit Grows Less Than Expected On Subdued Credit Card Usage

While the monthly jobs report has become a veritable economic random number generator, with every monthly print coming either well below or above the forecast stack, the weekly initial claims report has become its foil - a study in boring reporting, with numbers barely budging week to week, and usually falling right on top of Wall Street estimates. A similar dynamic is emerging for the monthly consumer credit report: following a volatile 2025, when revolving credit swung around wildly in unexpected ways dragging the broader print with it, the last few months have been surprisingly steady, printing right around the consensus expectations with barely any volatility.

The latest, February, report published minutes ago by the Fed was no surprise: with expectations for a modest increase from last month's $8.05 billion to $10.25 billion, the reported number was just shy of the estimate, printing $9.484 billion, up from a downward revised $7.665 billion.

Revolving credit rose a modest $709 million - the weakest monthly increase since November - to $1.328 trillion, the highest since November 2024. 

Non-revolving credit (student and auto loans) rose a more substantial $9.2 billion to a record $3.789 trillion.

Broken down by its two core components, Student Loans were $1.838 trillion as of Dec 2025, up $5.4 billion for the quarter, while Auto Loans rose a modest $1.5 billion to $1.562 trillion.

Finally, and this may come as a surprise, following 1.75% in rate cuts by the Fed since September 2024, a move which did nothing for the average rates on credit card accounts through Dec 31, 2025, there was finally a notable drop in the average credit card interest rate, which dropped to 21.52% on March 31, 2026 down from 22.30% three months ago. It appears that all the noise surrounding exorbitant credit card rates in recent months is starting to have an impact. 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 15:52

Tehran-Aligned Militia In Iraq Frees American Journalist In Prisoner Swap

An Iran-backed militia in Iraq has announced it will release an American freelance journalist kidnapped in Baghdad a week ago. Shelly Kittleson was abducted on March 31, and her captors in Kataib Hezbollah announced Tuesday that she can go free as long as she exits Iraq immediately.

Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a security official in the group, has been cited in international reports as saying, "In recognition of the national stances of the outgoing prime minister, we have decided to release the American defendant Shelly Kittleson."

Image source: Wausau Pilot & Review

This constitutes direct confirmation that the group is indeed responsible for her kidnapping, which happened after weeks of the US-Israeli attacks in Iran.

At the time of the 49-year-old’' abduction, Iraqi authorities said security forces pursued the suspects, resulting in one of the kidnappers’ vehicles overturning and one arrest.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani days ago intensified the search, ordering security forces to track down those responsible for abducting foreigners.

Kataib Hezbollah has claimed that it has a recording it is ready to release, supposedly showing Kittleson’s "role and activities in Iraq" - and at least one such video while in captivity has appeared.

In the past when Westerners or Israelis have been abducted in Iraq, they are typically accused of spying on behalf of foreign governments.

The NY Times says she has gone free, after an exchange:

Ms. Kittleson, who has reported on the Middle East for more than a decade for various outlets, was set free in exchange for the release of several imprisoned Kataib Hezbollah members, according to the two Iraqi security officials. They asked not to be identified in order to discuss sensitive negotiations.

AMERICAN JOURNALIST KIDNAPPED IN BAGHDAD

Rapid Report footage/Iraq Interior Ministry confirms Shelly Kittleson abducted pic.twitter.com/XzdPkEHT0s

— SilencedSirs◼️ (@SilentlySirs) March 31, 2026

Starting in March the State Department urged all Americans to leave the country immediately, after which the US Embassy in Baghdad came under repeat drone fire. Other US sites, as well as oil facilities, have come under fire either from Iran or its allied groups in Iraq.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 15:40

Antares Earns DoE's First Ever Microreactor Approval As Modi Heralds 'Defining Step In India's Nuclear Energy Journey'

Antares Nuclear reached the most significant regulatory milestone to date for a microreactor. The company announced that its Mark-0 reactor became the first advanced reactor to receive Department of Energy approval for a Documented Safety Analysis under the new DOE-STD-1271. 

DSA approved. ✅

Antares is the first advanced reactor to receive DOE approval of a Documented Safety Analysis under DOE-STD-1271.

Our Mark-0 reactor now moves to Readiness Review.

Onward. pic.twitter.com/DovqJsVVwz

— Antares (@AntaresNuclear) April 6, 2026

The company will now proceed with preparations for taking the reactor critical for the first time. This includes forming a joint test group to oversee the startup planning and execution. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright holds permission for starting up the reactor as the Startup Approval Authority. 

Bob Boston, manager of the DOE Idaho Operations Office, granted the approval of the DSA on Monday afternoon and clarified “The Department of Energy DSA is equivalent to an NRC license”.

We have closely tracked Antares and other reactor developers in the rapidly advancing microreactor race. The company's R1 design is a sodium heat pipe cooled microreactor engineered to provide up to one megawatt of flexible, carbon-free power. It targets applications including remote communities and military installations where conventional power infrastructure is limited. BWXT is completing TRISO fuel fabrication for the pilot with a planned criticality date before July 4th.

The company stands out as an early leader in securing formal safety analysis approval ahead of other contenders such as Radiant, Valar, Aalo Atomics, and Oklo.

This development occurs just after we highlighted the Department of Energy’s requested $45 billion in nuclear funding for fiscal year 2027, and recent discussions from Jay Yu of Nano Nuclear pointing out nuclear energy's new spotlight in light of the Iran conflict. 

Today, India takes a defining step in its civil nuclear journey, advancing the second stage of its nuclear programme.

The indigenously designed and built Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam has attained criticality.

This advanced reactor, capable of producing more fuel…

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) April 6, 2026

In related international news, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that India's 500 megawatt Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam has attained criticality. The sodium-cooled fast reactor designed by BHAVINI advances the second stage of India's three-stage nuclear program and brings the country closer to utilizing its large thorium reserves in the final phase.

These advancements in both advanced microreactors and large-scale fast breeder technology reflect growing worldwide interest in expanding reliable clean baseload nuclear capacity.
 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 15:20

Stellar 3Y Auction: 2nd Most Foreign Buyers On Record, Highest Stop Through Since Feb 2025

After several weeks of decidedly ugly auction which saw a notable drop in foreign demand amid what we reported a week ago was rampant selling of US debt by foreign central banks, moments ago the Treasury sold 3Y notes in what may have been the best auction since the start of the war.

Just after 1pm, the US treasury sold $58BN in 3Y notes at a high yield of 3.897%, up sharply from 3.579% a month ago and the highest since last June's 3.972%. More importantly, the auction stopped through the When Issued 3.909% by 1.2bps, the biggest stop through since Feb 2025 and the 7th stop through in the past 8 auctions.

The bid to cover bounced nicely from last month's 2.546 to 2.682, the highest since November. 

The internals were even stronger: indirects, or foreign central banks, came back in droves after aggressively selling US paper in recent week, and were allotted 74.8% of the auction - the highest since Sept 2024, and the second highest on record.

And with Directs awarded just 11.9%, the lowest since Sept 2024, Dealers were left holdings 13.3% or roughly in line with the recent average of 12.3%.

Overall this was a blockbuster 3Y auction, and one of the stronger for the tenor on record, although with every push higher in oil moving yields along with it, we doubt that the market cares much about the quality of today's issuance.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 13:33

Trump Endorses Steve Hilton In California Gubernatorial Primary

Authored by Dave Mason via The Center Square,

President Donald Trump has endorsed former Fox News anchor Steve Hilton in California’s Republican gubernatorial primary.

Trump picked Hilton over the other prominent GOP candidate – Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is an outspoken Trump supporter.

Sunday night’s endorsement on social media comes as Democrats face the risk of being shut out of the general election for the first time in the Golden State’s history.

Besides the two Republicans, there are eight prominent Democratic candidates. Under California law, the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the June 2 primary, regardless of party affiliation, will face off in the Nov. 3 election. Hilton and Bianco could get more votes if Democrats spread their votes among the eight candidates. 

And a recent University of California, Berkeley poll shows Hilton, a small business owner in addition to being a former commentator, and Bianco are ahead of the Democratic candidates.

According to the poll, Hilton has 17% of the vote, and Bianco, 16%. The leading Democratic candidates are U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell of San Francisco with 14%, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter of Orange County with 13% and billionaire and consumer protection advocate Tom Steyer, who financed the successful campaign to pass congressional redistricting in California, with 10%.

The poll says none of the five remaining prominent Democrats – former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan – has more than 5% of the vote.

Prediction markets see it a different way to the polls...

The Democratic Party is taking the risk seriously, with California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks urging Democrats with less support to drop out. So far, no one has budged. Hicks has said the risk of shutout is “relatively low but not impossible.”

Hicks wasn’t available for further comment on Monday, and the state Republican Party and Bianco or his campaign staff didn’t respond to The Center Square’s requests for comment. 

Hilton also wasn’t available for an interview, but his spokesperson Hector Barajas emailed The Center Square a statement saying Hilton was honored to be endorsed by Trump. The candidate’s statement noted California has the nation’s highest poverty, unemployment and cost-of-living rates after 16 years of “one-party rule” by Democrats. Hilton promised to cut electric bills by half, have no taxes on the first $100,000 of income, make house purchases more affordable and reduce the cost of gas to $3 a gallon.

California consistently has had the nation’s highest gas taxes for several years, and the tax has grown more than $1 a gallon since the Feb. 28 start of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. On Monday, California’s average price was $5.93 a gallon, above the national average of $4.12 a gallon, according to AAA.

Roxanne Hoge, chair of the Los Angeles County Republican Party, told The Center Square that under the top-two primary system, Democrats have spent a lot of money to help Republican candidates they think they can beat in November.

“We as a party have not gotten to choose our standard bearer for a long time, from state Senate all the way up to governor,” Hoge said in a phone interview Monday afternoon. ”The fact that for the first time in hundreds of races they [Democrats] might be shut down does not fill me with great empathy or concern.”

She added two Republicans and no Democrats in the general election’s gubernatorial race would be the best outcome for California.

“I’m firmly of the opinion that either Steve Hilton or Chad Bianco — or any Republican — would be a vast improvement over the public-sector-union puppets we have running our state now,” she said.

In his endorsement on his social media platform TruthSocial, Trump said he has known and respected Hilton for many years. 

“People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World,” Trump’s post said.

“Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so! With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before!”

There’s the question of whether Trump’s endorsement of Hilton could pull enough votes away from Bianco to mean Hilton would face a Democrat in the general election. But Hoge isn’t willing to predict that would happen.

“Republicans are first and foremost rugged individuals,” Hoge said. “For me to know what they’re going to do would be a fool’s errand.”

Porter, one of the leading Democratic candidates, commented on Trump’s endorsement of Hilton on social media.

“If there was any doubt what this race is about, now it’s certain: It’s California values against MAGA,” Porter posted on X. “I’m running because voters are tired of the same old political games when the stakes are so much higher. They deserve a governor they can trust to fight for regular people, not just push policy agendas that only benefit corporate interests and the richest of the rich.”

Campaign staffs for some of the other leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates did not respond to The Center Square’s requests for comment Monday. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 13:05

US Core Durable Goods Orders Surge For 11th Straight Month

After recent string 'soft' survey data, this morning we get some 'hard' data and it's mixed...ish...

Preliminary headline durable goods orders for February fell 1.4% MoM (worse than the -1.2% MoM exp). That is the third monthly decline in a row (the first 3-month decline since Nov 2019)

Source: Bloomberg

The monthly decline of the headline print largely reflected a decline in orders for aircraft.

Boeing said it received fewer orders for its planes in February than a month earlier.

On the other hand, core durable goods orders (prelim for Feb) rose 0.8% MoM (better than expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the eleventh straight month of gains, pulling core orders up 5.97% YoY - the most since Aug 2022.

Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for investment in equipment, increased 0.6% MoM after a downwardly revised 0.4% decline a month earlier.

Finally, shipments figures (which actually plug into GDP) were comfortably stronger than expected (+0.9% in February versus +0.4% forecast), which suggests upside risks to Q1 forecasts.

It remains to be seen, however, how the war impacted demand for capital goods. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 08:41

Futures Slide, Oil Jumps After US Attacks Kharg Island Ahead Of Trump's 8pm Iran Deadline

US futures reversed earlier gains and oil advanced following reports that Iran's Kharg island was targeted earlier on Tuesday, while the market was largely paralyzed ahead of Trump’s 8pm ET deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire or face escalation. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures slide 0.6%. In premarket trading, all Mag7 names are lower even as AVGO (+3% pre-mkt) is bid after a TPU supply pact with GOOGL (+55bps) while ASML (-80bps) is weaker following a proposed US law that would further curb semiconductor exports to China (targeting ASML’s deep ultraviolet lithography machine ). Managed care is well bid after the final Medicare Advantage rate of +2.48% (vs ~1% bogey) was released last night (HUM +9%, CVS +7%, UNH +6%, ALHC +11%). Bond yields rise 1bp, 10Y TSY yield at 4.34%, the USD is also higher while commodities are mixed with oil reversing earlier losses and rising over 2%. Today’s macro data focus is weekly ADP, Durable / Cap Goods, and NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations. Ultimately, expect weaker volumes today with some market swings on unconfirmed ceasefire / deal chatter.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Alphabet -0.06%, Amazon -0.4%, Meta -0.6%, Microsoft -0.4%, Tesla -1.3%, Nvidia -1.2%, Apple -1%)

• Managed care companies including Humana gain after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services finalized a 2.48% rate hike for health insurers in 2027. Investors see the pay boost as a meaningful improvement over the initial rates the agency proposed in January. Humana (HUM) rises 9% and CVS Health gains 6%.
• Broadcom (AVGO) rises 3% after the chipmaker announced a long-term agreement with Google to develop and supply Tensor Processing Units. The companies also confirmed plans to work with Anthropic to power the AI startup’s burgeoning operations.
• Estée Lauder (EL) slips 1% after Spanish newspaper Expansion reported that the the company and Puig owning families are set to hold talks this week in New York over their potential merger.
• Organogenesis Holdings Inc. (ORGO) rises 19% after the company said a randomized controlled trial of 170 patients in a diabetic foot ulcer trial achieved its primary endpoint.
• Wingstop (WING) rises 1.9% as Citi upgrades the fried chicken restaurant operator to buy, saying the valuation offers an attractive entry point.
• Pershing Square proposed a combination with Universal Music Group that would move the listing into a US-based acquisition vehicle. It’s a deal that Bill Ackman’s fund said values the world’s biggest music label at a 78% premium to its last closing price. 

In other news, Samsung reported preliminary operating profit that soared 755% to a record, with memory’s contribution estimated to be close to 90% of total operating profit. Rivals OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet’s Google have begun working together to try to clamp down on Chinese competitors extracting results from cutting-edge US AI models. And Anthropic said its revenue run rate has now topped $30 billion, with more than 1,000 businesses spending over $1 million annually, a rate that has doubled since February. BlackRock is setting its sights on a corner of the $13.7 trillion US ETF industry long controlled by Invesco — tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index. Some Tiger Cub funds incurred losses in March. Maverick Capital’s Long Enhanced Fund and its main hedge fund tumbled 8.1% and 5%, respectively, while Viking Global Investors’ flagship fund lost 4.1%, according to people familiar with the matter. 

Trump has threatened “all Hell” will rain down on Iran if it doesn’t agree to a ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern time. The Pentagon canceled the morning press briefing due to be led by Pete Hegseth, giving no reason. WSJ reported last night that hope is fading for a final deal by the deadline and RTRS reported this morning that a Senior Iranian Source said Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the U.S. and the IRGC warned neighboring countries “restraint is over” and threatened to disrupt regional oil and gas supplies for years to come. Strikes continued overnight. 

“It seems clear that it is extraordinarily difficult to invest on expectations for binary outcomes,” notes Jeffrey Palma at Cohen & Steers. On the other hand, David Kruk at La Financiere de l’Echiquier, set out the dilemma confronting traders, observing that the “market is now set up in such a way that the real pain trade is upwards.”

Investors are watching for any sign of a breakthrough amid a flurry of diplomacy before the 8 p.m. Eastern Time deadline. Trump insists any deal must ensure uninterrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for Middle East oil flows. He’s threatened to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants if no accord is reached. “The market remains volatile,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “It continues to swing between de-escalation hopes and Trump following through on his threats.”

Oil remains in focus, with WTI crude rising to the highest since June 2022. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts expressed caution over the wide gap between the Brent spot price, which reflects expectations of a resolution, and Dated Brent, which represents actual cargoes assigned specific loading dates. At above $140, the latter signals acute spot scarcity.

Trump’s deadline marks the latest pivotal moment in the war, which has killed thousands of people and triggered the largest-ever disruption to the global oil market. Israel told Iranians to refrain from using their country’s railway network until 9 p.m. local time, the first warning about such infrastructure that usually precedes an attack. Iran launched seven ballistic missiles and several more drones at Saudi Arabia overnight into Tuesday, while the Israel Defense Forces reported two missile volleys from Iran since midnight.

Meanwhile, the technology sector is looking increasingly attractive for investors as valuations fall below those of the wider stock market, according to Goldman strategists. Any lasting shock to the global economy from the war in Iran is also likely to benefit the sector as tech cash flows are less sensitive to economic growth, the strategists said. 

The recent economic numbers aren’t boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting rates anytime soon. March CPI on Friday is predicted to show the largest month-over-month increase in headline inflation since June 2022, largely driven by a spike in gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict. 

Europe's Stoxx 600 is up by 0.6%, with the media subindex leading the way on a jump for Universal Music on a €56 billion takeover proposal. UMG is the biggest gainer after Pershing Square offered to buy the entertainment company, while tech underperforms, weighed down by ASML as US lawmakers propose tighter curbs on chip equipment exports to China. Here are the biggest movers:

• Universal Music Group shares rise as much as 24% in Amsterdam, but trade well below the value of an offer from Pershing Square Capital Management amid doubt over whether the deal will happen
• JCDecaux rises as much as 5.8% as TD Cowen upgrades the outdoor advertising company to buy from hold, seeing a clear inflection point as China returns to growth
• Volati gains as much as 7.2%, the most since November, as Nordea reiterates its buy rating and raises its price target on the Swedish industrial group, saying the company is well-positioned to benefit from a cyclical rebound
• ASML shares fall as much as 4.7% on Tuesday after US lawmakers unveiled legislation aimed at tightening restrictions on chip tool exports to China. The goal is to subject Dutch and Japanese firms to the same curbs that American companies face
• Leonardo shares fall as much as 5.5% on the possibility of a management change at the Italian defense group; Bloomberg News reported that CEO Roberto Cingolani could be replaced as soon as this week
• AddTech falls as much as 5.9% after DNB Carnegie downgraded the stock to hold from buy, saying the Swedish industrial equipment maker could face weakening earnings growth momentum in 4Q
• Ninety One tumbles as much as 14% as BofA Global Research downgrades its rating on the investment management firm to neutral from buy and cuts its target price to 260p from 280p because of lower expected market returns
• Colruyt drops as much as 4.3%, biggest decliner in Belgium’s BEL Mid Index, after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, saying it looks “fairly valued for modest growth”

Asian stocks advanced for a third-straight session even as the approach of President Donald Trump’s deadline for a peace deal with Iran kept traders on edge. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1%, with technology shares including TSMC and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts. Stocks climbed in Taiwan and Australia. Hong Kong’s market remained shut for holidays. Stocks also gained in India, while equities traded mixed in Japan, China and much of Southeast Asia. South Korea’s Kospi climbed after better-than-expected results from Samsung Electronics.

“While oil prices remain elevated for now, there is a strong view that the conflict will come to an end within the next one to two weeks, with crude prices returning to prior levels,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management. “Geopolitical risks themselves have not been resolved, but VIX in Japan, US, and Europe have peaked, suggesting that markets may have largely priced in these risks,” he added.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises by 0.1%, with Aussie dollar and sterling the outperformers and Swedish krona lagging after a surprise cooling in inflation.

In rates, treasury futures hold small losses after erasing gains amid rising oil prices, with yields across tenors slightly higher on the day. US 10-year yield is less than 1bp higher near 4.34%, and curve spreads are within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels. With European bond markets open for first time since Thursday, German and UK yields are 2bp-5bp cheaper across flatter curves. The US session includes the first of this week’s three Treasury coupon auctions, a 3-year note sale at 1pm. Treasury’s $58 billion 3-year new-issue auction, to be followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday, has WI yield near 3.895%, about 32bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 1.1bp, a notably poor result. 

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up about 2% from Monday’s multiyear high close, which followed Trump’s threat to obliterate key Iranian infrastructure if an agreement to end the war isn’t reached by 8pm Tuesday. Gold prices up, though paring back from highs near $4,700/oz.

US event calendar, includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), February durable goods orders (8:30am), March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and February consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Williams (8:30am), Goolsbee (12:35pm, 1:45pm) and Jefferson (5:50pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.6%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.7%,
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
• DAX +0.5%
• CAC 40 +1.0%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.34%
• VIX +0.3 points at 24.48
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1211.85
• euro +0.3% at $1.1571
• WTI crude -0.4% at $111.97/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Negotiators are pessimistic Iran will bend to meet President Trump’s demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before his Tuesday-night deadline, paving the way for the U.S. to target Iranian bridges and power plants in a fresh escalation of the war. Twice in his second term, Trump set a deadline for a deal with Iran, said he would bomb the country if its leaders didn’t comply, then followed through with military operations. WSJ
• Airstrikes pounded Tehran on Tuesday, and Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants, hours before the expiration of U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for the Islamic Republic to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz or face punishing strikes on its infrastructure. AP
• Iran on Monday delivered a 10 point proposal to end the war with the US and Israel. The plan was conveyed by Pakistan, which has been acting as a primary intermediary, but appeared unlikely to resolve major questions ahead of Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline for new attacks on Iran. NYT
• A cross-party group of U.S. politicians have proposed ‌a law to impose further restrictions on exports of computer chipmaking equipment to China, affecting companies such as ASML and China's top chipmakers. RTRS
• Japan’s households reduced spending for a third straight month even after real wages turned positive. Outlays by households adjusted for inflation fell 1.8% in February from a year earlier, a faster decline compared with January’s 1% retreat. Real consumption remains weak, with economists citing growing consumer fatigue and inflation pressure as key challenges to domestic demand. BBG
• Taiwan’s opposition leader is set to arrive in China on Tuesday on what she has called a “historic journey for peace” as she hopes for a face-to-face meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the first such contact in a decade. FT
• Anthropic’s revenue run rate has topped $30 billion and the company confirmed partnerships with Broadcom and Google. BBG
• Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both see inflation as a far bigger problem than employment, underscoring their support for tighter rather than looser monetary policy as the Iran war puts upward pressure on energy prices and the job market remains ‌stuck in low gear. RTRS
• Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square offered to buy Universal Music Group in a cash-and-stock deal at a 78% premium to Thursday’s closing price. Ackman cited UMG’s stock underperformance as a trigger for the bid. BBG
• Republicans are reportedly weighing how broadly to structure a party-line bill to fund President Trump’s immigration enforcement, with some senators seeking multi-year DHS funding and others favoring a narrower ICE and CBP measure: Semafor 

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded cautiously following the positive lead from the US and with all focus remaining on geopolitics heading into US President Trump's Tuesday evening deadline for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz or face the US destroying its power plants and bridges, although President Trump had also previously stated that he thinks talks are going well with Iran and they would like to be able to make a deal. ASX 200 rallied with tech and miners leading the upside and with almost all sectors in the green aside from industrials and consumer staples. Nikkei 225 failed to sustain its initial advances with the index pressured amid headwinds from higher oil prices and following disappointing Household Spending data. KOSPI surged at the open with strong gains in Samsung Electronics after its preliminary results topped forecasts and showed around an eight-fold jump in Q1 operating profit, although most of the advances were then pared as shares in the index heavyweight also pulled back. Shanghai Comp lacked conviction on return from the long weekend, with upside limited after another meek PBoC liquidity operation and with the Stock Connect still closed as Hong Kong markets remained shut.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said won't comment on JGB yield levels and will refrain from commenting on levels in the markets, adds impact of Middle East and oil prices on the market is high.
• Chinese President Xi called for new energy system as war on Iran rocks global economy and said China needs to accelerate planning and construction of a new energy system to ensure the country’s energy security.
• South Korean FX Chief said are to deploy bold measures in the FX market, if needed.
• South Korea policy chief Kim said the chip industry secures four month's worth of helium and it is premature to discuss a second extra budget.
• Morgan Stanley cuts its China 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.7% due to oil shock.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) re-open from the 4-day Easter closure with mild gains, as traders countdown to Trump's Iran deadline at 20:00EDT/01:00BST. France's CAC 40 outperforms its peers, while the FTSE 100 underperforms. Worth noting that European indices opened mixed, but then moved higher, without a clear driver. Some may point to reports via a Pakistani journalist which suggested that a "framework of understanding for ceasefire" between US and Iran is “closer than ever”. European sectors are broadly in the green. Media is the clear outperformer, driven by gains in UMG (+12.2%) after Pershing Square announced a EUR 9.4bln bid to take over the media company. Technology sits at the bottom of the pile. Despite the majority of the sector components in the green, ASML (-2.3%) is weighing on the sector. This comes following a group of US politicians proposing a law to impose further export restrictions on computer chipmaking equipment to China.

Top European News

• UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar) 50.5 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 53.9). "Stagflation risks appear to have increased, with the final Services PMI data signalling slower growth and higher cost pressures than the earlier 'flash' estimates based on data compiled up to 20th March."
• UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Mar) 50.3 vs. Exp. 51 (Prev. 53.7).
• EU S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Mar) 50.7 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 51.9). "The near-stalling of growth in March drags the PMI’s signal for first quarter GDP growth down to 0.2%. More worrying is that there are clear risks of the economy contracting in the second quarter unless there is a swift resolution to the conflict."
• EU S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 51.9).
• German S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar) 50.9 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 53.5).
• German S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Mar) 51.9 vs. Exp. 51.9 (Prev. 53.2).
• French S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 49.6).
• French S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Mar) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 49.9).

FX

• FX markets saw a sharp risk-on move in the European morning, with no specific headline, but several outlets reporting optimism in US/Iran negotiations ahead of Tuesday's deadline. DXY fell as much as 0.2% from 100.04 to a trough of 99.77, and high-beta FX was helped against the weaker buck, with Aussie the outperformer and Sterling also performing notably well.
• Some participants flagged an Axios article six hours before the move, which quoted a US official, "If the president sees a deal is coming together, he'll probably hold off..." it is unclear whether this led to the reaction, though other reports following this initial move have added to the constructive risk environment, "mediators are close to reaching an agreement" on a "framework of understanding for ceasefire", according to Pakistani reporter Anas Mallick.
• Elsewhere, EUR and GBP were unreactive to mixed European Final PMIs. To recap, the EZ wide composite and services were revised a touch higher while the UK's were revised lower.
• The session ahead sees US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Durable Goods RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), Atlanta Fed GDP and President Trump's Iran deadline. Fed speak is expected from Fed's Williams (13:30 BST), Goolsbee (17:35 BST) and Jefferson (22:50 BST). Full primer on the Newsquawk headline feed.

Central Banks

• ECB's Wunsch said he is open to an interest rate rise at the April meeting; a lasting crisis would warrant a series of rate rises.
• ECB's Radev said the ECB must be ready to act if inflation persists, sees a rising likelihood of adverse scenario but too early to say if April rate hike is needed. Inflation expectations at risk of rising too quickly.

Fixed Income

• Initial bearish bias across the fixed income was facilitated by stronger energy prices, as the geopolitical environment remains exceptionally turbulent and as traders count down their clocks to President Trump’s 20:00EDT Iran deadline. However, in recent trade the crude complex took a tumble – but lacked a clear driver. Some market participants pointed towards an Axios piece from overnight, which reported that Trump may hold off from strikes on Iran if he sees a “deal coming together”. Markets also appear to be digesting some relatively positive mood from the Pakistani side, with a couple analysts suggesting a breakthrough could be close; whilst another suggested that a “framework of understanding” for a ceasefire is close. The pressure in energy prices therefore helped to boost fixed benchmarks to session highs.
• USTs were initially lower and were holding near troughs throughout the early portion of the morning, before then surging alongside the pressure in the crude complex. Currently holding at the upper end of a 110-21+ to 110-29+ range. On the data front, weekly ADP jobs figures, durable goods orders for February. On today’s speakers’ slate, Fed's Williams (voter) will speak on Bloomberg TV; Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish) will speak on the outlook for policy and the economy; Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson (voter, dovish) will speak on the economic outlook and the labour market.
• Bunds followed the above, and currently holding at the upper end of a 125.31-125.73 range – though still remains incrementally in the red. Geopols aside, German benchmarks have had a number of European PMI Final metrics to digest; Spain topped expectations, Italy missed whilst the EZ-wide figure was revised incrementally higher. Interesting commentary from within the German release suggested that, “the lack of pricing power in the service sector is important from a monetary policy perspective, as it limits the amount of upward pressure on core inflation, a measure that the ECB will be closely watching when considering interest rate increases.”
• Gilts are currently flat. As above, initially weighed by stronger energy prices, but UK paper then soared to highs as energy prices dipped. Currently towards the upper end of a 88.23-88.72 range. UK PMI Finals were revised lower, with analysts citing slower output growth as a result of the war in the Middle East. It also highlighted increasing risks to “stagflation”, and increasing costs pressures.

Commodities

• Crude futures gained at the start of the APAC session and held onto gains as European traders stepped in as US President Trump's 20:00EDT deadline approaches. If Iran does not agree to a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he said the US will decimate Iran's bridges and didn't rule out striking power plants. However, Trump did also state that he thinks talks are going well and that Iran has "an active and willing participant on the other side." Further reporting throughout the European morning indicates that an agreement could be near, with Pakistani reporter Mallick suggesting that the interlocutors are 'closer than ever for an agreement' to get a "framework of understanding for ceasefire" between the US and Iran.
• WTI and Brent topped at USD 116.56/bbl and USD 111.80/bbl, respectively, before sinking – a move which lacked a clear driver. However, the move appeared to follow the aforementioned reports from the Pakistani reporter. At the time of writing, WTI May'26 has returned below USD 113/bbl while Brent Jun'26 oscillates on either side of USD 110/bbl.
• Spot gold trades relatively contained within a USD 4617-4691/oz range. Upticks have picked up pace in recent trade as the USD softens amid downside in energy prices. However, the 20-SMA at USD 4,732/oz and last week's high of USD 4,800/oz remain as near-term resistance levels. To add, China added gold to its reserves for a 17th consecutive month, highlighting that demand for the yellow metal is still high. However, UBS lowered its end-June forecast to USD 5,200/oz due to softer investor demand.
• 3M LME copper is rangebound, oscillating in a USD 12.37k-12.46k/t range. This comes as participants remain cautious as the Trump deadline looms.
• Hungary to agree to buy oil from US at Orban-Vance meeting, Bloomberg reported. Hungary’s Mol will agree to purchase 500,000 tons for approximately USD 500mln.
• Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry said the oil shipments via CPC pipeline is stable, IFX reported.
• IRGC's public relations channel reported of "explosion and extensive damage to the Al-Jubeil industrial area".
• Attacks reportedly hit Saudi Aramco's petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia, AFP reported citing sources.
• China has provided Iran with a financial lifeline during the past half decade by purchasing most of its oil, according to WSJ.
• Tanker explosion near the Bridge of Americas in Panama City caused a massive fire.
• Japan's Industry Minister Akazawa said crude oil procurement is progressing.
• China gold reserves at end-March (USD) 342.76bln (prev. 387.59bln).
• UBS lowers end-June gold forecast to USD 5,200/oz, amid softer investor demand amid elevated volatility.
• Goldman Sachs analyst raises 2026 copper price forecast to USD 12,650/ton from USD 11,400/ton and expects copper prices to remain volatile as the market continues to assess impacts of the events in the Middle East on economic growth.

Geopolitics

• Pakistani reporter Anas Mallick suggests that, "to my understanding, the interlocutors (Pakistan, Turkiye and Egypt) are 'closer than ever for an agreement' to get a "framework of understanding for ceasefire" between US and Iran".
• Some geopolitical analysts say signals from Pakistan suggest a possible breakthrough in the coming hours, with Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and reportedly Beijing involved. said that a ceasefire could be near, but the situation remains early and fragile, so caution is warranted.
• Pakistan in last-minute efforts, along with Turkey and Egypt, to convince Iran to agree to the outline proposed by Pakistan, according to I24's Stein.
• Five friendly countries leaders' and eight intelligence agencies have reached out to Iran seeking to open a path for a ceasefire, Fars News reported.
• Israeli Source tells N12 news "The next 24 hours are the most decisive in the war, if it were up to political leadership in Iran, there would have been a ceasefire long ago, there is doubt about their control", N12's Segal reported.
• Iran's Spokesperson of the National Security Commission of the Parliament said "we are making special arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz", via Tasnim.
• Spokesman of Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Parliament said oil exports are going on as usual, and with even more capacity than before, IRIB reported.
• Iran atomic agency said heavy bombs won't halt nuclear tech progress.
• China has provided Iran with a financial lifeline during the past half decade by purchasing most of its oil, according to WSJ.
• Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel report Iranian drone and missile attacks, according to CBS.
• Israel announces a new wave of strikes on Iran and issues incoming missile alert.
• Iran launches new batch of missiles towards southern Israel.
• Israeli military said it completed airstrike wave aiming to damage Iranian terror regime infrastructure in Tehran and additional areas across Iran.
• US House Democrat Ansari intends to introduce articles of impeachment against Secretary of War Hegseth, cites Iran war and war crimes as grounds for Hegseth impeachment, according to NBC.
• Japanese PM Takaichi said in parliament said in Parliament, want to take next step in talks with Iran and is strongly urging Iran to allow Hormuz safe passage, while she is seeking phone talks with the presidents of US and Iran.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's adviser Mohammadi said it is Trump who has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran or his allies will return to the Stone Age, while he added that they will not back down.
• Iran said non-hostile countries can coordinate access to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Press TV.
• US Vice President J.D. Vance is on standby for Iran negotiations, according to POLITICO. "The negotiations are led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner but Vance could be tagged in if there is a direct meeting with Iranian officials.".
• Iran's top joint military command said Trump's threats are 'delusional' and his threat have no effect on operations against US and Israel.
• US data centres of Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), and Equinix (EQIX) in the UAE are now identified as potential targets for Iran's counter response in the region.
• Iranian securities exchange chief outlines conditions needed to reopen the Iranian capital markets: said outcomes could include a ceasefire with a formal agreement and full reopening, or a ceasefire without agreement and a gradual reopening.
• Explosions reported in eastern regions of Saudi Arabia and alarms sounding in Bahrain, Tasnim reported.
• Israeli reporter Stein said "Unexpectedly: the press conference planned for today with Defence Minister Hegseth and US Chief of Staff was cancelled".
• Fars news citing an informed source said "Trump is clearly looking for a meeting and an agreement. The American proposal includes the removal of "Witkoff" due to his closeness to Netanyahu's circle and negotiations with "Vance" to build a serious path. In the end, this source noted: Americans believe that fuel prices will increase explosively from next week and are not willing to accept this risk.
• The Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan said Pakistan's positive and productive attempt to step the war is approaching a critical and sensitive stage.
• Iranian outlets report that Yazd and Shiraz were shaken by blasts.
• Large barrage of missiles were reportedly headed for Bahrain, with air raid sirens and alerts in multiple areas.
• Drone strike reportedly hit US Victoria base in Baghdad, according to Iraqi sources cited by Fars.
• Missiles hit Saudi Arabia's Jubail which is largest industrial hub in the Middle East where large petrochemical and energy facilities are located.
• IRGC Aerospace Force Commander said they targeted the oil refinery, power plants, ports, and railway lines in Haifa Bay, and no interception of our missiles was recorded, Al Jazeera reported.
• Russia's Yamal LNG ships first cargo to China since November, LSEG data shows.
• Russia's Ministry of Defence reported that air defence forces have downed 45 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions overnight.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

US and Asia markets had a decent start to the week yesterday while Europe was off for Easter Monday. However, sentiment has turned more cautious this morning as investors grapple with President Trump’s new deadline of 8pm Eastern Time tonight (1am London) for Iran to agree a deal as he threated to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants. The renewed escalation threat has seen Brent crude move back above $111/bbl this morning after trading as low $107/bbl yesterday. In turn, S&P 500 futures are down -0.44% overnight after posting a fourth consecutive advance (+0.44%) yesterday that saw the index erase half of its decline since the Iran strikes began.

In terms of Trump’s latest ultimatum to Iran, the US President shared the 8pm ET Tuesday deadline on social media on Sunday and then referred to it several times yesterday as he demanded that Iran strikes a deal that “that's acceptable to me”, while threatening intensified attacks against Iran that would destroy “every bridge” and take “every power plant” out of business. Notably, Trump said that a deal should include “free traffic of oil”, calling reopening the Strait of Hormuz “a very big priority”. So a seeming shift from previous suggestions that reopening the straits was not a core objective for the US. The President repeatedly suggested that this evening’s deadline was final, saying that he was “highly unlikely” to postpone it. Recall that Trump had issued an initial 48-hour ultimatum for striking Iran’s power plants back on March 21, first extending this by 5 days and then followed by another 10-day pause that had been due to expire yesterday.

Earlier yesterday, we had heard various reports on talks as other countries in the region have pushed for a ceasefire deal. Iran’s state-run IRNA then reported that Tehran rejected a ceasefire via Pakistani mediators, instead demanding a permanent end to the war as well as lifting of sanctions, reconstruction efforts and a protocol for safe passage through Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump called Iran’s proposals a “very significant step” but “not good enough” as he threatened the escalatory strikes.

So that left oil markets facing crosswinds from Trump’s escalation threat to possible ceasefire talks as well as news that shipping via the Strait of Hormuz has been edging higher in recent days. Iran said on Saturday that “brotherly” Iraq would be exempt from shipping restrictions in the Strait, and AIS data showed five tankers crossing the Strait that day (possible that more did so with transponders turned off). That was the most since March 1 but still a small fraction of the roughly 60 tankers a day before the war.

Brent crude whipsawed in a relatively tight range yesterday, falling from above $111/bbl at yesterday’s open to as low as $107/bbl early in European hours before closing +0.68% on the day at $109.77/bbl. It is another +1.67% higher at $111.60/bbl as I type.

With oil markets relatively stable, risk assets had a decent start to the week, with the S&P 500 (+0.44%) advancing for a fourth session in a row yesterday, its longest run since January. That left the S&P 500 up +4.22% from last Monday’s closing low, erasing around half of the -7.78% decline it had seen since February 27. The NASDAQ (+0.54%) and the Mag-7 (+0.28%) saw similar gains, while nearly two thirds of the S&P 500 constituents moved higher on Monday with cyclical sectors outperforming. Private investment companies including Apollo (-0.87%) and Blackstone (-0.72%) underperformed amid lingering concerns about private credit. By contrast, US HY credit spreads tightened by -8bps to 291bps, their lowest level since March 5.

In Asia this morning, the Nikkei (-0.38%) is down following a +0.55% increase yesterday after softer Japan household spending data (-1.8% YoY vs -0.8% expected) which posted a third consecutive year-over-year decline in February. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (+0.30%) is continuing its upward trend after a +1.36% rise on Monday. Samsung Electronics was up as much as +4.9% at the open as it projected record quarterly profits due to strong AI chip demand, but its stock is now down -1.98% as I type. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.43%) is significantly higher this morning, while the CSI (-0.29%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.03%) are more subdued. In the US, S&P 500 futures (-0.44%) have lost ground overnight, whereas Euro STOXX 50 (+0.13%) futures are edging higher after yesterday’s US advance.

In terms of yesterday’s other news, the March ISM services release in the US highlighted the inflationary risks stemming from the Iran war. While the headline reading retreated from a post-2022 high of 56.1 to 54.0 (vs. 54.9 expected), the prices paid component saw a stronger-than-expected rise to 70.7, its highest since October 2022. And there were contrasting signals within the details, as new orders rose to a 3-year high of 60.6, but employment fell to a 2-year low of 45.2. Amid this mixed data, the Treasury curve saw a modest flattening yesterday, with the 2yr yield up +0.8bps to 3.85% but 10yr down -1.3bps to 4.33%.

Treasury yields had seen a sizeable rise in Friday’s shortened session, with 2yr up +4.4bps and 10yr up +3.9bps following the strong March employment report. The release saw both headline (+178k vs +65k expected) and private (+186k vs. 78k expected) payrolls come in far above consensus expectations, with the unemployment rate also dropping from 4.44% to 4.29% (vs. 4.4% expected). To be sure, the rebound from strike- and weather-related weakness in February payrolls played a role, with the earlier timing of Easter also possibly bringing forward some payroll gains at the expense of April. Still, averaging through the Q1 employment reports, headline (+68k) and private (+79k) payrolls have been running above estimates of breakeven job gains and well above their subdued pace in late 2025, easing concerns on the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate. 

Turning to the week ahead, the data highlight will be the March CPI print in the US on Friday where the impact of the energy price shock will be on full display. Our economists expect a roughly 25% increase in gasoline prices to yield a 0.95% monthly gain in headline CPI, raising the annual rate from +2.4% to +3.4%, while core inflation sees a more moderate +0.33% monthly rise. The March CPI reading will also be preceded by the February core PCE inflation print on Thursday, which we expect at +0.39% MoM. That would mark the highest monthly print since last February and bring the 3- and 6-month annualised rates of the Fed’s preferred inflation metric up to 4.5% and 3.5% respectively.

Other notable US data releases this week include the March NY Fed inflation expectations survey and February durable goods orders today as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. Elsewhere, we have the Euro Area final March services PMIs (today), Germany’s February factory orders (Wednesday) and industrial production (Thursday), and the March inflation reports in China (Friday). From central banks, Wednesday will see the March FOMC minutes and a rates decision in New Zealand (our economists expect a hold). See the full day-by-day rundown below.

And while Iran headlines will dominate the geopolitical news, we also have NATO Secretary General Rutte scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington tomorrow in a visit that comes amid Trump’s vocal criticism of NATO allies over their stance on the Iran war.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 08:30

Polymarket Unveils Exchange Overhaul, Native Stablecoin As US Expansion Looms

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine,

Bitcoin and crypto focused prediction market platform Polymarket is preparing its most significant infrastructure upgrade to date, rolling out a rebuilt trading system alongside a new native stablecoin designed to replace bridged collateral and streamline on-chain activity.

The overhaul, described by the company as a “full exchange upgrade,” is expected to go live over the next several weeks and includes new smart contracts, an updated central limit order book (CLOB), and a proprietary collateral token called Polymarket USD.

The token will be backed 1:1 by USDC and will replace USDC.e, a bridged version of the stablecoin currently used across the platform.

Last month, Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, made a $600 million direct cash investment in prediction market platform Polymarket as part of a broader equity fundraising round, the company announced.

The shift away from bridged assets reflects a broader effort to reduce reliance on cross-chain infrastructure, which can introduce additional risks and inefficiencies.

By moving to a natively controlled collateral token, Polymarket aims to tighten control over settlement, improve liquidity consistency, and simplify the trading experience for users.

At the core of the upgrade is a redesigned matching engine and an improved order book architecture.

The new system is intended to deliver faster execution, tighter spreads, and lower operational overhead. According to developer materials, the updated exchange stack reduces the complexity of order structures while introducing support for advanced features such as EIP-1271 signatures, enabling smart contract wallets to interact more seamlessly with the platform.

Polymarket said most users will experience a smooth transition, with the interface automatically handling the conversion of existing assets into Polymarket USD via a one-time approval. However, more advanced traders and developers will need to manually wrap their holdings using a dedicated collateral onramp contract and update integrations to align with the new system.

As part of the migration, all existing order books will be cleared during a scheduled maintenance window, with the company promising advance notice ahead of the transition. The reset is intended to ensure consistency across the upgraded infrastructure and avoid discrepancies between legacy and new systems.

Prediction markets like Polymarket are booming 

The timing of the overhaul comes amid rapid growth for Polymarket, which has seen trading volumes surge in recent months. The platform reportedly surpassed $10 billion in monthly volume in March, underscoring increasing demand for event-based trading markets across crypto and traditional finance audiences.

Beyond performance improvements, the upgrade signals a strategic shift toward greater vertical integration. Polymarket has historically relied on external systems, including optimistic oracle mechanisms, to resolve market outcomes. However, the company has hinted at future plans for a native token, potentially called POLY, which could play a role in governance and dispute resolution.

If implemented, such a token could allow Polymarket to internalize key functions like market validation and outcome verification, reducing dependence on third-party protocols and giving the platform more direct control over what it defines as “truth” within its markets.

The infrastructure revamp also aligns with Polymarket’s renewed push into the U.S. market. After previously halting domestic operations, the company has since registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is positioning itself to operate within an increasingly defined regulatory framework.

With its latest upgrade, the company is attempting to evolve from a fast-growing crypto application into a fully-fledged exchange platform, combining improved execution infrastructure with tighter control over collateral, governance, and market integrity.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 08:05

US Already Spent Over $42 Billion & Counting On Iran War

This week will see the Iran war reach 40 days of fighting, which is a far cry from the mere "four days" some US administration officials offered as a possible 'optimistic' timeline at the very opening of Trump's Operation Epic Fury.

According to the Iran War Cost Tracker portal, the US military operation has cost more than $42 billion thus far. The tracker has arrived at this figure largely based on a Pentagon briefing to Congress on March 10, which disclosed that Washington spent $11.3 billion in the first six days of the new war in the Middle East.

USAF file image

The same briefing indicated the Pentagon planned to spend at least an additional $1 billion per day for the remainder of the conflict.

The real cost could be much, much higher given that at this point dozens of ultra-expensive aircraft and radars have been knocked out by Iran's ongoing retaliation, and as the US has begun high risk incursions into the region and into Iranian territory itself.

Axios in a report days ago highlighted that "The U.S. is dedicating significant amounts of firepower to the Middle East as it wrestles with Iran. Some of it — billions of dollars' worth, in fact — will not be returning."

Describing the mounting costs in terms of blood and treasure, Axios wrote that "Hundreds of American troops have been injured and 13 killed" - and also: "Some exquisite weaponry, everything from stealth jets to radars, has been knocked out."

Axios continues, "The high end includes costs associated with radar replacement at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and some fixes to the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, which last month suffered an hours-long laundry fire." The laundry room fire narrative has been subject of immense speculation and skepticism, with the supercarrier undergoing lengthy emergency repairs at its current port of Split, Croatia.

Also confirmed damaged or destroyed are the following:

• One Lockheed Martin F-35A
• One Boeing E-3 Sentry
• One RTX AN/TPY-2 radar
• Three Boeing F-15E Strike Eagles
• Multiple Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers
• Multiple General Atomics MQ-9 Reapers

The lost military hardware, some of which may have yet to be disclosed, itself is a loss in the billions.

Here’s what is known so far about U.S. Air Force losses during Operation Epic Fury:

Total losses are estimated to exceed $2 billion, with replacement costs potentially even higher.

— Four F-15E Strike Eagles have been lost, one over Iran and three downed by friendly fire over… pic.twitter.com/OjaR0gzdWv

— Egypt's Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) April 3, 2026

Despite the immense and growing expense on the American taxpayer, there's still not been a Congressional War Powers resolution passed. As yet, there's really not been any real or robust debate over the merits or justification of the war among the people's representatives in Congress.

Independent journalist (formerly of The Intercept) Lee Fang writes, "We learned from the Afghan papers & SIGAR reports that everything the Pentagon and cable media told us about that occupation was a lie. The U.S. installed hated pedophile drug lords to run that country while contractors ransacked billions. The Iran war is 10x more built on lies." And so the Iran situation could get a lot worse, and could be for potentially years to come.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 07:45

Marc Andreessen Calls AI Job-Loss Fears 'Fake', Expects Employment Gains

It is not the first time that the venture capital guru has questioned some of the fundamentally dystopian scenarios being proposition in an AI world. 

In February, we noted that amid an armada of dystopian futurists, projecting linear thoughts into a future of 'AI uber alles', Marc Andreessen stands as a beacon of potential utopian light, seeing a future that looks very different and very positive for young and old alike.

In a brief few minutes, the co-founder of Netscape and VC firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) believes instead that we are living through a unique (and most incredible) time in history with the rise of AI coming right as human civilization needs it...

"we're going to have AI and robots precisely when we actually need them [with populations shrinking] to keep the economy from actually shrinking."

Simply put, Andreessen says that fears of AI-driven mass job loss are overly simplistic.

After decades of unusually slow technological change and low job churn, AI could restore historical productivity levels (exemplified by the period from 1870-1930), sparking opportunity, innovation, and net job growth rather than displacement. 

Declining populations and reduced immigration will make human labor increasingly valuable. AI's timing is "miraculous", Andreessen exclaims, preventing economic shrinkage from depopulation.

In even radical scenarios, explosive productivity leads to output gluts, collapsing prices, and massive real-wealth gains - equivalent to "giant raises" for everyone - while making safety-nets more affordable. 

Whether incremental or transformative, Andreessen sees the outcome as fundamentally positive economic news.

Of course, he does have a lot of skin in this game...

Building on that, CoinTelegraph's Christina Comben reports that Andreessen said artificial intelligence will spark a “massive jobs boom,” dismissing fears of widespread job losses as “all fake” in a Sunday post on X.

His optimism contrasts with a March US jobs report showing unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, while the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more rose by 322,000 over the past year.

Andreesen shared a Business Insider report showing a sharp rise in tech job openings in 2026, with more than 67,000 software engineering roles, a twofold increase from 2023, and argued that employers had recovered from post-pandemic hiring corrections and the interest rate spike.

“The ‘AI job loss’ narratives are all fake,” he wrote.

“AI = massive ramp in productivity = massive ramp in demand = massive jobs boom. Watch.”

Andreessen is one of Silicon Valley’s most influential investors, a co-founder of Netscape and venture firm Andreessen Horowitz.

He is also a major backer of US crypto and AI companies.

Job losses in tech pile up

On the ground, the reality is somewhat different. On Feb. 26, Jack Dorsey’s Block cut 40% of its staff as the company accelerated its use of AI, including experiments with agents to take over parts of middle management.

On March 19, crypto exchange Crypto.com announced a 12% workforce reduction due to AI integrations, warning that companies “that do not make this pivot immediately will fail.”

Crypto.com cuts 12% of its staff. Source: Kris Marszalek

AI-driven pivots by companies are also impacting employment.

Oracle reportedly cut up to 30,000 jobs recently, citing “broader organizational change,” as it pushes to build AI data centers.

MARA, which has been repurposing its Bitcoin mining infrastructure for AI, has reportedly reduced its staff by 15%.

Andreessen’s comments meet with skepticism

That backdrop helps explain the online backlash Andreessen received.

“Tell that to the average lower middle class American who can’t find a job or the consumer who can’t get decent customer service,” crypto influencer WendyO replied. 

Tory Green, co-founder at io.net argued Andreessen could be proved right on net job creation, but only if AI tools are broadly accessible and not captured by a handful of platforms.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 06:55

Germany's Debt Spiral: Bundesbank Chief Breaks Silence

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

It’s not every day that top officials of the German Bundesbank take an explicit stance on daily politics.

Nagel’s stark warnings about Germany’s debt and the government’s creative accounting were surely met with grim recognition in Berlin’s corridors of power. Open criticism is rare there, and when it comes from credible insiders, it stings even more.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel 

Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil apparently still believe the fairy tale that debt-fueled demand policy can create economic miracles, generate growth, and deliver real prosperity. The result: a staggering debt binge that threatens to finish Germany economically.

Of course, this is a Keynesian nursery tale, endlessly repeated by politicians. With this simplified version of economics, political power is cemented – while the anonymous masses of taxpayers are left to clean up the debt disaster.

The government assumes the taxpayer backstop—and has surrounded itself with a state-friendly media sector, like a protective membrane. This behavior is conditioned.

The truth about mounting state debt, its destructive impact on private business, inflation, and the erosion of middle-class purchasing power is rarely discussed, and only in the media’s backrooms. When criticism reaches the public eye, its proponents are aggressively attacked and their valid arguments systematically sterilized.

Since January 2022, Joachim Nagel has led the Bundesbank. Recently, he warned for the first time about the unchecked growth of public debt—breaking Berlin’s long-standing elite vow of silence. Last year, he said, national debt rose by €144 billion to €2.84 trillion, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 63.5 percent.

Some may recall the Maastricht limit, which capped debt at 60 percent. Those times are long gone, and the official debt numbers are, of course, grossly misleading.

For years—especially since the banking bailouts 15 years ago—the government has operated shadow budgets. Hoping the public won’t dig into fiscal details, these rarely illuminated debt channels are declared “special funds,” off the official books. Over 20 such hidden debt pots inflate actual state debt by at least €550 billion. Germany’s real debt likely sits near 80 percent of GDP and could exceed 85 percent by the end of this fiscal year.

The most infamous of these special funds originates from the debt crisis 15 years ago. The Financial Market Stabilization Fund (FMS) provided €400 billion in government guarantees and €80 billion in potential recapitalizations. Ultimately, €168 billion in guarantees and around €30 billion in direct transfers to financial institutions were used, while roughly €50 billion in debts from that era remain.

One of the largest black funds in federal history. Only Merz’s half-trillion-euro special fund will surpass this scale. Lesson learned: state financing has become an undeniable Ponzi scheme. Bond markets will ultimately dictate when the fiat money spree ends—they are the final arbiters of decades of political chaos.

Merz and his debt-hungry, insatiable finance minister are deliberately driving state spending to dizzying heights, yet must acknowledge that the heavily damaged German “economic tanker” can no longer move forward.

To buy time, the tragicomic duo plans to tighten middle-class taxes to the limit, holding taxpayers accountable for their fiscal free-for-all.

This is irresponsible, economically destructive policy unseen in Germany since WWII—the construction of a new socialism.

Against this backdrop, the Bundesbank president urged a return to sound budget planning. Deficits must be reduced mid-term without cutting essential infrastructure. Sadly, Nagel stopped short of endorsing free-market principles outright, missing the chance to clarify that the diversion of additional debt via special funds is systemic.

Policy cannot be fiscally restrained as long as bond markets are manipulated by monetary policy. According to the ifo Institute, 95 percent of this additional debt was added to the pre-existing debt binge and diverted. Social policy with a money printer—this is how far German fiscal policy has sunk.

Those seeking the real debt picture must dig deep—including pension obligations and current retirement promises. The scale of these liabilities defies imagination.

Germany—and nearly all of the EU—is trapped in a debt spiral. Turmoil in capital markets, broad restructuring, and massive wealth and debt redistribution loom. A standalone debt haircut would be systemic death: it would shrink circulating fiat credit and trigger a deflationary shock beyond the capacity of banks to absorb—a dead-end.

When will Germany begin monetizing its treasure, its massive gold reserves? Four years ago, the government under then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz pressured the Bundesbank to sell part of its gold to fund the defense special fund.

“Top” economists at Spiegel were reportedly inflamed by this idea—in these circles, the significance of collateralized, limited-quantity assets is poorly understood, even though they may one day underpin a new monetary regime.

It is fortunate that Nagel held the firewall against political adventurers and media amateurs. The Bundesbank may one day play a decisive role in a severe currency and debt crisis.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 06:30

Death Of Hollywood In Two Charts

The nightmare story for Hollywood is playing out in real time for the world to see, as a century-old entertainment economy implodes and bears all the hallmarks of what happened to Detroit after the auto industry went bust.

A new Wall Street Journal report describes the Hollywood job market as being in "collapse" mode, with employment in the industry down 30% from its late-2022 peak, while behind-the-scenes union workers logged 36% fewer hours last year than in 2022.

One big reason is that studios are making fewer shows and movies, and more of what they make is being filmed overseas or in other U.S. states that offer better tax incentives.

None of these overseas productions, or productions in other business-friendly states, should come as a surprise given that California is controlled by unhinged, one-party-rule Democratic Party leaders whose state-killing progressive policies have sparked a massive exodus of residents, businesses, and even billionaire tech bros.

The job market collapse in Hollywood has led to increasing calls for a federal production tax credit, with lobbyists linked to studios saying that a 15% federal incentive, on top of state subsidies (which typically range from 20% to 40%), could help break the production bust cycle and reshore more production back to the state. 

But tax incentives won't solve the job crisis on their own. With crazed liberal elites left holding the bag of studio garbage, younger audiences are spending more time on YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram for video consumption, while an increasing number of Americans have boycotted films and TV shows they consider "woke."

The regime's propaganda machine is collapsing under the weight of its own irrelevance. Hollywood exists solely to launder the radical leftist agenda into the minds of the youth. They despise the audience they claim to serve. This victory proves the market rejects their synthetic…

— Saggezza Eterna (@FinalTelegraph) February 1, 2026

"The biggest question now is whether the current downturn is temporary," the WSJ report asked.

Well, in WSJ's own words, the job bust will likely go into hyperdrive in the era of AI ...

"Artificial intelligence, meanwhile, could eliminate more production jobs or spark a new production boom if the technology enables content to be made less expensively."

Ben Horowitz says a famous Hollywood friend told him half the movie they’re making is AI.

It’s collapsing the cost of filmmaking, and when creation gets cheap enough, entirely new mediums could emerge.

Source: @bhorowitz at Columbia Business School pic.twitter.com/B2uL2S68t4

— a16z (@a16z) October 5, 2025

To sum up, Hollywood's sphere of left-wing influence is collapsing, and it is no longer taken seriously. 

Beyond studios, in the world of corporate media, job losses are mounting for white-collar liberals ... 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 05:45

Iranian Kurdish Groups Deny Receiving US Arms After Trump's 'Guns For Protesters' Remark

Via The Cradle

Several Iranian Kurdish opposition groups on Monday denied reports that the US had armed them during anti-government protests and riots that erupted in January, leaving over 3,000 Iranians dead.

Mohammed Nazif Qaderi, a senior official from the opposition Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), called the reports "baseless," saying, "We haven't received any weapons. The weapons we have are from 47 years ago, and we obtained them on the Islamic Republic's battlefield, and we bought some from the market."

AFP via Getty Images

"Our policy is not to make demonstrations violent and use harsh methods, rather we believe we must make our demands in a peaceful and civil manner without weapons," Qaderi said.

The protests and riots began in January after the US Treasury deliberately created a shortage of US dollars in Iran's heavily sanctioned economy, causing the Iranian currency to collapse. The uprising began with economic-driven demonstrations in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, which saw shopkeepers shutter their stores.

Armed groups then used the protests that erupted in response as cover to carry out attacks against Iranian security forces and paramilitary groups, known as Basij. Rioters also attacked and burned government buildings and mosques.

Israeli media reported that Mossad had agents on the ground in Iran to organize armed groups and create chaos in advance of the US-Israeli bombing campaign launched weeks later, on 28 February.

The Kurdish denial came one day after US President Donald Trump admitted for the first time during an interview with Fox News that the US attempted to ship "a lot of guns" to anti-government protesters in Iran.

Trump appears to confirm that the US pursued a Syria scenario in Iran earlier this year.

Thousands of Iranians were killed as security forces cracked down on unrest. At the time, Iranian authorities claimed many victims were either caught in crossfire or armed militants. https://t.co/ISzAXgph9N

— Mohammad Ali Shabani (@mashabani) April 5, 2026

While confirming the intent to arm the uprising that began in late 2025, Trump claimed the operation failed because the Kurds, who were used as the delivery channel, "kept the weapons" for themselves instead of passing them to the demonstrators.

This blunt disclosure not only provides the Iranian government with direct evidence of US interference but also publicly blames the US's Kurdish allies for the missing arms.

In response to Trump's comments, Amjad Hussein Panahi, head of communications for Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan, stated, "We assure you we haven't received a single bullet or weapon from any country or place, and we're not aware of the existence of such a thing; what we have is our own."

Reports first emerged that the CIA was working to arm Kurdish forces in an effort to foment an uprising in Iran in early March. 

Trump:

We sent some guns; they were supposed to go to the people of Iran. You know what happened? The people we sent them through kept them.

I am very upset with a certain group of people, and they will pay a big price for that. pic.twitter.com/dACg5aZyMS

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 6, 2026

Multiple people familiar with the plan told CNN that the Trump administration had been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq. The CIA wished to provide weapons and air support to Kurdish militants as part of an operation to topple the Iranian government.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 05:00

RQ-180 Spy Drone Reappears Again In Greece As Larissa Air Base Backs U.S. Recon Ops

New footage of what appears to be the highly secretive Northrop Grumman RQ-180 stealth surveillance drone has surfaced near Larisa, Greece, according to the aviation outlet The Aviationist.

The RQ-180 apparently appeared in daylight hours on approach to landing at Larisa Air Base, home to the Hellenic Air Force’s 110 Combat Wing. The footage offers one of the clearest views yet of the flying-wing spy drone and confirms it is neither the B-2 Spirit nor the B-21 Raider. 

Screenshot from videos taken by Efthymios Siakaras near Larissa, Greece. (Image credit: The Aviationist/Efthymios Siakaras)

The aircraft has never been formally acknowledged in detail by the Pentagon, but the designation has circulated in defense reporting since at least 2013. Its core mission is to collect imagery, radar, and signals intelligence in places where a non-stealth drone, such as the Global Hawk, would be too vulnerable. 

The earliest video of the RQ-180, which could be among the first-ever glimpses of the drone, emerged in late March and was first reported by the local Greek news website OnLarissa. 

The Aviationist pointed out this latest footage only suggests that "Larissa is in fact being used as a regular forward operating location for the RQ-180." 

Larisa Air Base has already been used for MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance operations in the region. The base is part of the Eastern Mediterranean support network, where Reuters reported that Western militaries increased their presence last month. 

The RQ-180's most likely role in the US-Iran conflict is reconnaissance.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 04:15

Europe's Climate Policy Forces Industry Into Retreat; Even Its Critics Are Folding

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In the media business, five months is an eternity. And it does indeed seem like an eternity has passed since Christian Kullmann, CEO of the German chemical giant Evonik, sharply criticized European climate policy at the end of October.

At the time, Kullmann gave an interview to Süddeutsche Zeitung, in which he called—if not for the outright abolition—then at least for a significant weakening of the EU-wide CO₂ emissions trading system, given the dramatic state of the economy.

Kullmann rightly pointed out that there is probably no stricter CO₂ regime anywhere in the world than in the EU. And since the climate, as we know, has no borders, he argued it makes little sense to disadvantage domestic cutting-edge technology in this way. He explicitly referred to the costly CO₂ trading system, which drained a staggering €21.4 billion from the German economy last year alone—under the banner of climate policy through this relatively new mechanism.

Five months after these remarkable statements—briefly breaking the long-standing silence of German industrial leaders—the question must be asked whether there is anywhere else in the world a comparable project to the EU’s CO₂ regime. With the United States abandoning its policy of artificial energy scarcity, its war on conventional energy production, and heavy-handed regulation of its own industrial base, the EU now stands alone in its ideological campaign against economic rationality. No one else seems willing to join the chorus of Europe’s climate apocalypticism.

This European isolationism may elsewhere be perceived as a form of late-stage counter-colonization—a return flow of capital from remorseful Europeans willing to accept self-imposed sacrifice to help other regions get back on their feet. Around the world, this selflessly naive “degrowth suicide” is welcomed, as it delivers not only so-called climate support from European funds but, more importantly, accelerated industrial investment from European companies—served on a silver platter by eco-socialist policymakers. A civilizational ingredient that, it seems, Europe itself now believes it can do without.

In China, one has learned to remain quiet when a geopolitical rival makes mistake after mistake—as is currently the case with European climate policy. Energy-intensive firms like Evonik are penalized by CO₂ pricing with an artificial competitive disadvantage. Once embedded in political and administrative structures, this amounts to a genuine stimulus program for foreign industrial locations.

At the same time, China—like the increasingly deregulated United States under President Donald Trump—is developing a powerful vacuum effect in global capital markets. The world is benefiting from German engineering and European capital.

This dynamic is particularly evident in the chemical industry. As a highly energy-intensive sector, it has suffered one of the hardest blows from European climate policy, alongside the automotive industry. Kullmann’s warning about the erosion of economic foundations was more than justified—but it came far too late and remained, for a time, a lone voice in the wilderness.

Since 2018, Germany’s chemical industry has lost roughly a quarter of its production capacity. The sector is operating at an average capacity utilization of just 70%, a level that reflects a sectoral depression not seen in Germany since the end of World War II.

Yet the worse the economic situation becomes, the more firmly German policymakers cling to their belief in the green transformation. Corporate silence is secured by a massive subsidy machine, just as the sympathetic media sector provides the shrill soundtrack to the broader economic decline.

Tactically astute from a media standpoint, Brussels—under pressure from European industry—has agreed to ease some pressure from the CO₂ cost burden. The European Commission is expected to temporarily freeze the volume of circulating certificates within the market stability reserve in order to stabilize prices.

For Evonik CEO Kullmann, the outcome presented by Brussels appears acceptable. His once sharp criticism of the CO₂ mechanism has mysteriously vanished into the media ether. The change of heart clearly follows the promise of further subsidies.

A destructive mechanism has emerged between large corporations and an eco-socialist political leadership. At the media level, corporate executives and political actors stage a kind of ping-pong game that simulates critical debate and conflicting interests at the highest levels of decision-making.

Evidently, there is no willingness to even slow down the ongoing transfer of wealth—from the productive sectors of society to politically favored extractive sectors such as the green economy—even amid prolonged economic stagnation. The economic and social consequences of this policy are, for now, being conveniently ignored in both Brussels and Berlin.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 03:30

British Official Admits UK Not Capable Of Rescuing Their Own Lost Airmen

Europe has been dancing on the edge of a knife, flirting with notions of war with a battle hardened Russia over the conflict in Ukraine.  As these tensions escalate, questions are being raised about the actual combat readiness and capabilities of countries that have relied on the US for their security for so long.

The primary division between the Trump Administration and NATO countries, the thing that started it all, was the initial refusal of so many of them to pay their fair share for defense.  Currently, most NATO members budget around 2% of their GDP to defense under the NATO treaty.  When asked to budget 5%, European governments became indignant, only agreeing to meet the target in a decade.

In an interesting recent admission from The Telegraph, Tom Tugendhat, a British MP and former security minister, argues that the UK simply lacks the independent military capabilities needed to pull off a rescue operation of one of their own airman similar to the recent US operation in Iran.  He says that if one of their pilots needed to be saved, they would have to ask the US to do it.  

“We do not have the platforms, the satellites, the reach or the mass. Our rescue plan, if the airman were British, would be to call the U.S.”

Tugendhat warned about the situation in Iran in March, saying he had questions as to why Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to deploy appropriate air defense assets in the region to protect UK citizens and allies from missile and drone strikes.  Starmer is facing mounting criticism for his delay in deploying the HMS Dragon to Cyprus, following an attack on UK base RAF Akrotiri. 

Expressing his dismay at the lack of protection for British personnel, Tugendhat told GB News:

"My take is pretty simple - we may not have agreed with the initial decision to strike, that's an American and Israeli decision...But I see absolutely no reason why we didn't have assets in the region, why we didn't have Type 45 destroyers in the region to protect our citizens and our allies. It's baffling to me."

Beyond their heavy reliance on the US and Europe's lack of military spending, Europe is facing a crisis of public confidence. European military readiness has been exposed in the past few years as severely lacking, and a core problem these governments refuse to address is the fact that most young men simply don't want to fight for them.  In other words, in a voluntary system the governments and the countries in question need to hold similar values to the men they want to send into battle. 

With far-left progressive elements holding power across Europe, this is simply not the case.  So, their only option is to force a draft. 

Several senior UK officials and MPs have publicly entertained or discussed the possibility of forced conscription (a military draft) as something that the government might implement in the event of a major war.  UK military recruitment is far below requirements with the Army and Royal Navy consistently hitting only 60% of their personnel goals. 

Dr. Mike Martin, a Liberal Democrat MP and former British Army officer, stated in March 2025 that if the UK became involved in a general war with Russia, “we’ll be conscripting the population - there’s no question about that.” He described it as something Britain “must be prepared” for, given the significant risk of wider conflict.  Notions of an incoming draft have been a major topic in the British media for the past couple years. 

The suspicion is that the establishment is acclimating the public to the idea over time, getting them ready to accept it as inevitable.  

Germany is creating the framework for a draft right now.  As of January 1, 2026, German men aged 17 to 45 must obtain "permission" from a Bundeswehr Career Center before traveling abroad for more than three months.  They witnessed what happened in Ukraine at the start of the war with Russia; millions of young men fled the country to avoid conscription.  Germany is establishing loss prevention, clearly planning for a near term clash with the Russians. 

One strange narrative that has been circulating on social media is the argument among Europeans that the US "wasted" millions of dollars in military equipment in their successful mission to rescue "just one" wounded airman.  The operation included special forces landing two MC-130s on a makeshift landing strip right under the nose of the IRGC and securing the area for the extraction of the stranded airman.  The planes became stuck in the sand and had to be destroyed to prevent them falling into the hands of the Iranians.  

It's highly revealing that this sacrifice of equipment for the sake of saving a lost soldier is confusing to many Europeans.  It shows that they can't comprehend the idea of a government that would actually care enough to save them rather than throw them to the wolves.  In other words, there is no loyalty on either side of the equation and Europe's weaknesses go well beyond the political.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 02:45

France's Debt Spiral: Tax Hikes Mask A Looming Crisis

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

On both sides of the Franco-German border, the same problem persists: overburdened and reform-averse politicians struggle against a rapidly accelerating debt spiral. Their preferred tool: higher levies.

Last week, France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure reported a revision of the projected budget deficit for the current year.

Initial estimates for 2026 had suggested a deficit well above five percent. Yet numerous fiscal measures brought last year’s deficit down to 5.1%. For 2026, the Finance Ministry expects it to stabilize at around five percent—provided the ongoing energy crisis and the war in Iran do not cast a lasting shadow over the year, and the economy does not abruptly collapse.

With total public debt at roughly 115% of GDP, France cannot possibly meet the Maastricht criteria under this level of new borrowing.

Do restrictive fiscal rules, such as the increasingly fading Maastricht criteria, even matter anymore in the Eurozone? It’s a rhetorical question: public spending dynamics are no longer controllable. One could also say: EU nations have entered a phase of fiscal fatalism.

After a 4% increase in government spending in 2024, outlays rose again last year, this time by 2.5%. The state apparatus continues to expand, regardless of the dramatic debt levels, pushing the public-sector share of GDP to 57%.

Similar to Germany, this figure does not account for the bureaucratic overhead borne by the private sector on behalf of the increasingly feudal state. Hundreds of thousands of private-sector jobs exist solely to fulfill government reporting and compliance obligations.

Massive Tax Hikes

Meanwhile, the French government remains stuck in its involuntary role as a reform-incapable instrument of the crumbling status quo. Parliament’s majority arithmetic leaves it paralyzed. A reform process to shrink the welfare state, reduce the massive bureaucracy, and achieve sustainable budget management is now completely out of reach for Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s minority government.

Every administration supported by President Emmanuel Macron functions as a placeholder, interchangeable and powerless in a parliamentary arithmetic deadlock. Macron, facing dramatically poor approval ratings as a sort of “president without a people,” knows the fragility of France’s public finances and can at least rely on one thing: a broad political alliance capable of delivering temporary relief through tax hikes.

In Paris, as in much of the EU, policymakers are staunch etatists—staunchly loyal to the state and simultaneously hungry for power—making a large government apparatus serve their interests.

Over the past two years, France has cranked up the tax screws: a minimum rate for top incomes above €250,000, an increase in property wealth taxes, and a rise in corporate taxes for larger firms, yielding up to €6 billion in additional annual revenue.

New levies on higher dividend payouts and large corporate stock buybacks have been introduced. A Tobin-style financial transaction tax is planned to hit wealthy shareholders. Energy and environmental levies have also risen. As with tobacco and alcohol, the message is clear: “We tax luxury and the rich.”

This creates the impression of socially just taxation, while distracting from the fundamental problem: the expanding state, a European disease driving the continent into turbulence.

Where the Journey Leads

France illustrates both the mechanics and potential timeline of the emerging national debt crisis. Through intensive public-relations work and the backing of state-aligned media, politicians cultivate the impression of massive social imbalances. Punchline: societal decay and poverty, up to the misery of public finances, are the undeniable result of capitalist plunder.

The only functioning corrective to this systemic injustice comes from the benevolent, balancing state, stepping in to deliver fiscal transfers and enforce a form of justice.

In the sticky rhetoric of “justice,” the government conceals its complete failure—whether in border policy, over-bureaucratization, or the naive belief in a centrally planned economy. The result is a lifeless economy, which in France fares no better than in Germany. Only in energy has the importance of nuclear power been recognized—a wise choice, securing significant advantages for French industry.

Fiscal policy in Paris and Berlin now moves hand in hand toward the fiscal inferno. Berlin delayed necessary action by two years, but 2026 promises to be a year of major shocks. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government is expected to raise both inheritance tax and the top income tax rate.

Options on the tax roulette wheel include a two-percentage-point hike in VAT and the end of spousal income splitting—measures particularly cherished by the political left in its ongoing attack on the remnants of the bourgeois family sphere.

The CDU’s participation in this scheme, leveling itself with other socialist parties in the Bundestag, reveals the intellectual and ethical erosion of a party led to the threshold of socialism by Angela Merkel and now finally pushed over by Friedrich Merz.

From general political-ideological mismanagement emerges a crisis-management strategy. Germany and France offer clues about fiscal trajectories in the coming years.

In short: the state will feed off the shrinking economic substance, masking its failures with higher levies while postponing necessary reforms.

This has immediate consequences for capital markets. If the sell-off of European sovereign bonds continues, the European Central Bank will have to intervene to prevent the public debt Ponzi scheme from collapsing.

This trend is highly inflationary and accelerates the process of social and economic erosion. Those capable of cutting the Gordian knot of Europe’s complex fiscal entanglement remain, for now, on the sidelines.

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About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/07/2026 - 02:00