Kamikaze Drone Maker Raises $320 Million In U.S. IPO As 'War Unicorns' Rise

The rise of "war unicorns" will be an impressive development to watch over the next several years, as we've diligently laid out for readers for months, well before the U.S.-Iran conflict, how a massive government push and in capital markets would begin to prioritize the next generation of defense-tech firms rather than big, bloated legacy defense contractors.

Aevex, a military drone maker backed by Madison Dearborn Partners, is the latest example of capital markets getting excited about war unicorns, with the company selling 16 million shares at $20 each in an IPO, with shares expected to begin trading on Friday. The deal was reportedly oversubscribed multiple times, according to Bloomberg sources.

Aevex is a direct public-market play on low-cost kamikaze drones, with a sizable portion of last year's revenue linked to Ukraine. It has two unmanned systems programs, Phoenix Ghost and EUCOM AOR Deep Strike, that have delivered or committed to deliver more than 9,300 units, representing about $1.2 billion in contract value through the end of this year.

The war unicorn is positioned to benefit from the Department of War's massive shift toward startups that can produce advanced weapons at a fraction of the cost and on a faster timeline than the large primes, such as Lockheed and Boeing. There is also a major shift within the DoW toward low-cost advanced weapons systems, such as drones and AI kill chains.

Aevex sees demand for unmanned systems expanding to $11 billion in the U.S. and $26 billion globally by 2030.

Bloomberg noted that Aevex posted a net loss of $16.9 million on $432.9 million in revenue in 2025, compared with net income of $78.5 million on $392.2 million in revenue a year earlier.

Aevex's public debut is only the beginning of war unicorns tapping public markets. We've outlined how the DoW's procurement process has been reset to favor startups. The DoW is also setting up a 30-person investment banking team called the "Economic Defense Unit" to deploy $200 billion in private equity over three years to fund these unicorns.

Follow the money: President Trump's war economy is being spun up ...

• War Economy Returns: From Trucks To Tanks, Pentagon Looks To Automakers To Rebuild America's Arsenal

What comes next, particularly in the U.S. market, is a rapid push to harden the airspace over critical infrastructure, data centers, and other high-value assets, because there is an alarming gap in the low-cost air defense layer against FPVs. Lessons from conflict areas across Eurasia are being learned at hyperspeed. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 11:20

"Mr. Biden Lives Abroad": Hunter Leaves Country As Former Lawyers Seek Millions

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Mr. Biden lives abroad.”

Those four words in a filing from Barry Coburn confirmed what had long been rumored about his client: Hunter Biden has left the country as his former lawyers and creditors seek millions in unpaid debts.

He added, “He cannot pay his current lawyers.”

As I wrote about years ago, Biden’s art grift would dry up as soon as he could no longer deliver influence and access to power. Reportedly unable to move art, Hunter has moved out of the reach of many creditors. He is rumored to be in South Africa, where his wife, Melissa Cohen, was born and raised.

Hunter is the Blanche DuBois of American politics. He has always relied on the kindness (and greed) of strangers when he could allegedly offer influence or access to his father, Joe Biden.

Hunter told a South African podcast in November that “We’re trying to be between Cape Town and the States, go back and forth.” He added, “I’ve fallen madly in love with Cape Town. You guys do not know how good you have it here. It’s the most beautiful city in the world.”

It just also happens to be roughly 9000 miles away from creditors in Delaware.

According to his former counsel at Winston & Strawn LLP, Hunter has not paid a “substantial portion” of the fees owed to his legal team.

Hunter told the podcast that he is facing “$17 million in debt … as it relates to my legal fees.”

His criminal defense did not ultimately protect him. He was found guilty of a variety of crimes, and his father then broke his repeated promise to the public and pardoned his own son in December 2024.

I have been a long-time critic of the Bidens, going back to when Joe Biden was still a senator. The family was long accused of influence peddling and corruption. Hunter Biden was hardly subtle in marketing his access and influence. He is now without a law license and any known means of support despite an enabling media that pushed his past books and art.

For those of us who have written about the Bidens for decades, the relocation to South Africa is about as surprising as having his father pop into dinners at Cafe Milano with foreign clients. Hunter Biden is the Enfant terrible created by his father and released upon the world.

I recently wrote that the Swalwell scandal reveals an ironic analogy to Hunter’s signature lifestyle.

Swalwell supported Hunter and was by his side as he defied a congressional subpoena. Like Hunter, he has controversial dealings, including using tens of thousands of campaign contributions for child care. He even had the campaign support of Hunter’s “sugar brother” Kevin Morris, who appears to have a proclivity for narcissistic, self-destructive personalities.

Swalwell could also face the same financial crunch as Hunter, as his campaign and congressional money run out. If so, there is always South Africa.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 11:00

House Votes To Extend Surveillance Powers Until April 30

The US House of Representatives on Friday passed a bill extending Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) - which was notoriously abused so spy on the 2016 Trump campaign, and has been used for "backdoor searches" targeting Americans. Friday's vote - via unanimous consent after a longer five-year reauthorization pushed by Republicns failed to advance - extends Section 702 until April 30. 

The short-term measure now moves to the Senate, which faces a looming deadline: the current authorization expires April 20. The vote comes despite a well-documented history of FISA abuses spanning both individualized Title I warrants and the bulk warrantless collection under Section 702, as detailed in multiple Department of Justice Inspector General reports, declassified Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) opinions, and congressional oversight findings.

President Donald Trump had urged Republicans to support a clean extension, citing the law’s critical role in national security while personally recounting what he described as "the worst and most illegal abuse of FISA in our Nation’s History.” Trump referenced the FBI’s use of FISA during the Crossfire Hurricane investigation into his 2016 presidential campaign. At the same time, he stressed that the U.S. military "desperately needs” Section 702 to protect troops and diplomats, particularly amid ongoing operations against Iran’s nuclear program.

"With the ongoing successful Military activities against the Terrorist Iranian Regime, it is more important than ever that we remain vigilant, PROTECT our Homeland, Troops, and Diplomats stationed abroad,” Trump said. He added that generals he consulted called the authority "VITAL,” especially in the current geopolitical climate.

Heaven forbid he demand reforms and more oversight. 

Section 702 permits the government to collect communications of non-U.S. persons located outside the United States without a warrant. However, it inevitably captures "incidental” communications involving American citizens, who can then be searched in the database through so-called "backdoor” queries - often without a warrant or probable cause. Critics on both sides of the aisle have long warned that the program effectively enables warrantless domestic surveillance.

Long-Standing and Systemic Abuses

FISA was enacted in 1978 in direct response to revelations from the Church Committee about executive-branch spying on civil-rights leaders, anti-war activists, and political opponents. Yet official records show recurring compliance failures and misuse in the decades since.

The highest-profile case of targeted surveillance involved Carter Page, a former Trump campaign foreign-policy adviser. A December 2019 DOJ Inspector General report by Michael Horowitz identified 17 significant inaccuracies and omissions across four FISA warrant applications and renewals. These included heavy reliance on the unverified Steele dossier - funded by the Clinton campaign and DNC - without disclosing its political origins, lack of corroboration, or exculpatory evidence (such as Page’s prior reporting as a CIA source). The FBI also failed to correct the record with the FISC.

FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith later pleaded guilty to altering an email to falsely claim Page was not a CIA source, helping secure a renewal. Special Counsel John Durham’s subsequent investigation further criticized the FBI’s predication and handling of the Russia probe. The DOJ later admitted in court filings that it lacked probable cause for at least some of the Page renewals. Recent 2026 disclosures by Sen. Chuck Grassley have raised similar questions about possible FISA surveillance of another Trump adviser, Walid Phares, involving the same FBI attorney.

These were not isolated. A 2002 FISC review found the FBI had included false or misleading statements in at least 75 FISA applications, leading to the barring of a senior counterterrorism official from ever appearing before the court. A 2020 IG audit of the FBI’s "Woods procedures” (accuracy-check protocols) examined 29 applications and found apparent errors or inadequately supported facts in every one of the 25 reviewed in detail.

Section 702 "Backdoor" Searches on U.S. Persons

The scale of abuse under the warrantless program has drawn even sharper criticism from the FISC itself, which has repeatedly described FBI compliance failures as "persistent and widespread.”

Between 2020 and early 2022, the FBI conducted more than 278,000 searches of Section 702 data that violated legal standards or internal policy. In 2021 alone, total U.S.-person queries reached approximately 3.4 million, with hundreds of thousands flagged as improper.

Declassified FISC opinions document concrete examples of misuse:

• Queries on Black Lives Matter protesters, Jan. 6 arrestees, and participants in purely domestic criminal investigations (health-care fraud, gang violence, public corruption) with no foreign-intelligence nexus.
• A batch query on 19,000 donors to a congressional campaign.
• Searches targeting a U.S. Senator, a state senator, a state court judge, journalists, political commentators, and even FBI "Citizens Academy” participants.
• Personal abuses, including agents querying data on romantic partners, family members, online-dating matches, or rental tenants.

FISC rulings from 2018 through 2023 repeatedly faulted the FBI’s minimization procedures, record-keeping, and "batch” querying practices. A 2025 DOJ OIG report acknowledged some improvement after the 2024 Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act but warned that ongoing oversight remains essential.

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) offered an amendment April 15 that would have required the Justice Department to obtain a court order before querying Americans’ data, with narrow exceptions for urgent threats. "FISA 702 is too critical to allow it to expire, but the legitimate concerns about the possibility of abuse also demand that we consider additional reforms,” Himes stated. The amendment was not adopted.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 10:40

US Intelligence Believes China Weighing Sending Iran Advance Radar Systems

US intelligence is flagging early signs that Beijing may have been eyeing a move into the Iran conflict - quietly considering sending advanced radar systems, which it is said to have been mulling since near the opening of the US-Israel war which kicked off last month.

These anti-Beijing allegations are contained in fresh CBS News reporting, citing analysts at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), who conclude China was actively weighing whether to equip Tehran with upgraded radar capabilities.

via GT

It should be recalled that earlier parallel reports said Moscow was feeding Iran intelligence on US military positions across the Middle East - raising the specter of a broader shadow alignment forming behind the scenes.

"This technology would significantly enhance Iran's ability to detect and track incoming threats, like low-flying drones and cruise missiles, and could help protect its air defense systems against advanced strikes," CBS writes.

The report continues, "It remains unclear whether China ultimately moved forward with the transfer but the assessment underscores Washington's concern that the Iranian war is drawing in not only regional adversaries but also global competitors willing to provide critical support, short of direct military involvement, the officials said."

The ability of the Iranians to hit faraway precision targets, including for example an expensive US radar base in Jordan, suggested it may have already had some external satellite and targeting help. Any new China radar transfer could help Iran rebuild its largely decimated defenses.

The significant Iranian retaliation against US regional bases and against Gulf facilities last month came as a surprise or even shock to the US administration, which appeared somewhat unprepared - and this has been subject of much recent reporting. For example:

Such anti-China allegations have been previewed before, but the idea of advanced Chinese radar technological on the ground in Iran might have been a game-changer in terms of preserving more of its own anti-air and missile capabilities.

All of these allegations, which come anonymously via unnamed US intel officials, must be treated with appropriate skepticism, however - given that war propaganda will inevitably be thick in such a hot conflict.

China, for its part, has been vehemently denying these repeat charges of some kind of deepened support for the Islamic Republic amid the war. It says it stands for peace and dialogue, and has called for urgent de-escalation and the unblocking of the Hormuz Strait.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 10:05

Trump Says Admin Investigating Deaths, Disappearances Of US Scientists

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on Thursday vowed to look into reports of multiple U.S. scientists who have either died or gone missing in recent months.

“I hope it’s random, but we’re going to know in the next week and a half,” he told reporters, adding that “I just left a meeting on that subject.”

The reports, he added, are serious, because “some of them were very important people, and we’re going to look at it over the next short period.”

The president provided an update a day after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the Trump administration is investigating.

A reporter asked Leavitt about 10 scientists who died or disappeared over the past several years, with some of them having access to nuclear or aerospace material.

“I haven’t spoken to our relevant agencies about it. I will certainly do that, and we’ll get you an answer. If true, of course, that’s definitely something I think this government and administration would deem worth looking into,” she said in response.

At least one House lawmaker, Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), asked the FBI to investigate the reports.

“The disappearance of multiple scientists and military personnel with ties to advanced research is deeply concerning. I’ve already requested FBI involvement, and we will keep pressing for answers,” Burlison wrote in a post on X in late March.

Another, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), also called for an investigation into the disappearances.

“The numbers seem very high in these certain areas of research. I think we’d better be paying attention, and I don’t think we should trust our government,” he told the Daily Mail in March.

Burchett also made reference to the disappearance of a former Air Force general, William McCasland, who vanished from his New Mexico home without his phone or glasses in February. Media reports said that a colleague of his, Monica Reza, a rocket scientist, went missing in June 2025 after she did not return home from hiking in the Angeles National Forest in Southern California.

The lawmaker appeared to suggest that McCasland’s disappearance was linked to his aerospace or UFO research, saying that “those folks are very secretive about what they know” and he believes that McCasland “was involved in some of that.”

A former Department of State analyst, Marik von Rennenkampff, told NewsNation on Wednesday that the disappearances are unusual and could be connected.

“It’s bizarre,” he said. “I go through various potential scenarios. These are large organizations. Could these be coincidences? I think we might have passed that threshold.”

The Epoch Times contacted the FBI for comment Thursday.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 09:45

Madison Air Pulls Off Biggest U.S. Industrial IPO Since 1999 As Data Center Cooling Theme Heats Up

Madison Air Solutions surged 18% in its IPO on Thursday after raising $2.23 billion, pulling off the largest U.S. industrial IPO in nearly three decades. Shares closed at $31.75, signaling strong investor appetite for an industrial name tied to the AI infrastructure buildout.

The Chicago-based company designs and manufactures ventilation, filtration, and cooling systems for data centers, semiconductor manufacturing facilities, life sciences buildings, and commercial buildings. Most importantly, investors care about MAIR because it sells liquid, hybrid, and air-cooling equipment for data centers, tying it directly to the AI buildout boom. 

Data centers account for roughly 20% of MAIR's business. The company operates 30 brands and generated $3.34 billion in 2025 revenue, up from $2.62 billion a year earlier, though net income declined to $124 million from $236 million. Like many industrials operating in the US, it faces pressure from President Trump's tariffs, with imported metals adding more than $51 million in costs last year. 

On Thursday, MAIR closed at $31.75, up from its $27 offering price, giving the company a $15.5 billion. In premakret trading in New York, shares are around $32.

Last year, in the data center cooling theme, we penned a note titled "A Chilling Opportunity" on data centers, highlighting UBS analyst Joshua Spector's bullish coverage of Chemours as being well-positioned in coolant solutions for data centers. Year to date, Chemours is up 94%.

Looking ahead, Goldman analyst Mark Delaney provided color on the data center buildout earlier today: "Datacenter capex from leading public hyperscalers is now approaching ~$700 billion, roughly 10x the level in 2020." This only suggests that as chip stacks get more powerful and demand for energy and cooling rises, companies like MAIR and Chemours stand to be key beneficiaries.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 07:20

Aluminum Market Descends Into Supply 'Black Hole'

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange are climbing into the end of the week, reaching $3,621 a ton and approaching the peak seen during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The problem now is that the aluminum market has been thrust into a serious supply shock amid the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East, one that is unlikely to be reversed in the near term.

One big problem we highlighted last weekend was that Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf's largest aluminum producer, declared force majeure on part of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes hit its Al Taweelah smelter. Then there is the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. blockade of the critical waterway, which has only further throttled vessel traffic.

It is important to note that EGA accounts for 4% of the world's aluminum production. The broader Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum production.

JPMorgan analysts have warned that the industry is descending into a black hole, or a "metaphorical point of no return," where the "global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage," even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term.

The analysts warned clients earlier this week that the market has now entered that dangerous void, and LME prices could soon reach $4,000 a ton as the largest supply deficit in more than 25 years quickly emerges.

Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients, "Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide."

Countries exposed to Gulf aluminum shipments include the U.S., Japan, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, and India. Any supply shock could hit Western manufacturers, allowing alternative suppliers in China and Russia to step up.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 06:55

Aluminum Market Descends Into Supply 'Black Hole'

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange are climbing into the end of the week, reaching $3,621 a ton and approaching the peak seen during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The problem now is that the aluminum market has been thrust into a serious supply shock amid the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East, one that is unlikely to be reversed in the near term.

One big problem we highlighted last weekend was that Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf's largest aluminum producer, declared force majeure on part of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes hit its Al Taweelah smelter. Then there is the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. blockade of the critical waterway, which has only further throttled vessel traffic.

It is important to note that EGA accounts for 4% of the world's aluminum production. The broader Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum production.

JPMorgan analysts have warned that the industry is descending into a black hole, or a "metaphorical point of no return," where the "global aluminum market will face a serious and prolonged supply outage," even if vessel flows through the Hormuz chokepoint resume in the near term.

The analysts warned clients earlier this week that the market has now entered that dangerous void, and LME prices could soon reach $4,000 a ton as the largest supply deficit in more than 25 years quickly emerges.

Goldman commodity specialist James McGeoch recently warned clients, "Hard to think of a bigger metal supply shock: High degree of expectation this was where it was heading, but the initial reaction was to fade the uncertainty yesterday, that should be replaced by fresh length if history is a guide."

Countries exposed to Gulf aluminum shipments include the U.S., Japan, Turkey, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, and India. Any supply shock could hit Western manufacturers, allowing alternative suppliers in China and Russia to step up.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 06:55

Norway's Oil Export Earnings Surge 68% Amid Iran War

Authored by Alex Komani via OilPrice.com,

Norway's crude oil export earnings surged 67.9% year-on-year in March to a record 57.4 billion kroner ($6.1 billion), primarily driven by soaring global energy prices following the outbreak of the Iran war and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices averaged 1,014 kroner ($107.52) per barrel in March, the highest monthly average since September 2023.

As Europe’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, the Scandinavian country exported 56.6 million barrels of crude oil in March, good for nearly 2 million barrels per day. Norway’s natural gas export revenues also climbed 19% to over 69 billion kroner as Europe sought alternative energy sources amid Middle East instability, helping the country record a trade surplus to the tune of 97.5 billion kroner, its highest level since January 2023.

Norway’s windfall oil earnings did not escape the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump:

“Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” he wrote in Truth Social.

“Aberdeen should be booming. Norway sells its North Sea oil to the UK at double the price. They are making a fortune,” he added.

North Sea oil and gas production is in long-term, structural decline, with over 90% of its producible resources already extracted.

However, Norway has been able to maintain high production by expanding exploration in the Arctic Barents Sea, pivoting to new, smaller discoveries in the North Sea, and investing heavily in the Norwegian Sea.

The Barents Sea is widely regarded as one of the most promising, yet under-explored, oil and gas frontiers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, with roughly 80% of its remaining hydrocarbon resources yet to be tapped.

Meanwhile, the Norwegian Sea is an increasingly attractive area of interest, with roughly 50% of its remaining oil and gas resources yet to be discovered.

About one-third of the estimated resources in the Norwegian Sea are located in unopened areas, including off Lofoten and Vesterålen as well as around Jan Mayen.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 05:00

Gulf War Leaves $58 Billion Repair Bill And Global Equipment Crunch

Last week, JPMorgan - which correctly noted that headlines tend to focus on the fact of damage not the scale - was the first itemize the damage from the war in Iran, finding more than 60 energy infrastructure assets in the Gulf have been affected by drone and missile strikes, with roughly 50 sustaining different degrees of damage. 

What about the actual dollar value of the inflicted damage?

According to Rystad, repair and restoration costs for energy-linked infrastructure as a result of war in the Middle East could hit $58 billion, with the total for oil and gas facilities potentially up to $50 billion. 

Three weeks after the energy consultancy published an initial estimate of $25 billion in repair costs across Gulf energy infrastructure, the scope of damage has expanded materially. The continuation of military strikes drove up the number of impacted assets across the region before largely subsiding following an 8 April ceasefire between the US and Iran. This pushed the estimate for the average in potential total repair and restoration spending to $46 billion – representing the midway point in the range of $34 billion to $58 billion – across oil and gas infrastructure, inclusive of an average of $5 billion across industrial, power and desalination assets. The ceasefire, combined with stalled negotiations and renewed escalation risk, continues to shape the operating environment, alongside risks of disruption and potential blockades affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Divergent recovery timelines 

This broader damage footprint is changing how the recovery will unfold. Capital availability is not the primary constraint; instead, access to equipment, contractors and logistics is emerging as the key limiting factor. Recovery timelines are beginning to diverge across assets and countries, reflecting differences in domestic execution capacity and supply chain access. At the same time, repair activity is likely to displace new project execution, as operators prioritize restoring existing production over advancing greenfield developments. 

Early recovery trends already reflect this divergence. Some facilities where damage was contained and contractor capacity was already present have resumed operations within weeks, particularly where work is limited to surface equipment and modular repairs. By contrast, facilities requiring reconstruction of core process units or that are dependent on long-lead equipment remain in early assessment stages, with timelines extending into years. 

Rystad Energy has assessed the damage across impacted energy-linked facilities and estimates total repair and restoration costs in the range of $34 billion to $58 billion. 

The lower end of the range assumes that, for facilities where the extent of damage is not yet fully clear, impacts are limited in scope, allowing for modular repairs supported by existing spare equipment and shorter procurement cycles. The upper end reflects scenarios where structural damage is confirmed across major facilities, requiring full replacement of critical systems, reliance on long-lead equipment and the inclusion of conflict-related premiums on engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) execution, including contractor mobilization and war-risk insurance, alongside delays linked to contractor deployment, constrained logistics and in some cases restricted access to international supply chains.

Iran and Qatar bear brunt 

At a country level, this cost distribution begins to diverge more clearly, both in scale and across asset types. Iran accounts for the highest number of impacted facilities and the widest spread across asset types, with repair costs potentially reaching up to $19 billion under a high-damage scenario. Major disruptions are concentrated in the South Pars onshore gas processing facilities at Asaluyeh, along with the adjacent Pars Special Economic Energy Zone and Mahshahr petrochemical complex, removing significant gas processing and downstream petrochemical capacity. Additional impacts across key refineries, fuel storage depots in the Tehran region and export infrastructure at Lavan and Siri Island have further constrained domestic fuel distribution and reduced export flexibility, increasing reliance on fewer operational outlets. 

The impact in Iran therefore extends across the value chain, with simultaneous disruption to processing, refining, storage, and exports. Restoration timelines are structurally longer than elsewhere in the Gulf, not only due to the scale and dispersion of damage, but also because access to Western EPC contractors, original equipment manufacturers and process technologies remains restricted, narrowing execution options and extending procurement cycles. 

Qatar presents a different profile, where the impact is more concentrated but significantly deeper in terms of technical complexity. Damage is centered on Ras Laffan Industrial City, where multiple liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains have been affected alongside disruption at the Pearl gas-to-liquids facility. This is now intersecting with QatarEnergy’s ongoing North Field expansion program, including the latest award to a consortium led by Technip Energies, with contractors already active across multiple phases. 

With these projects already under execution or in early construction, there is a clear overlap between expansion work and repair activity within the same industrial cluster. Both draw on similar pools of engineering teams, fabrication yards and site crews, even if not always the same contractors. If some of this capacity is redirected towards repair activity, it could lead to delays of a few months in ongoing expansion projects, especially where timelines are already tight. The impact is more likely to show up as slower progress on execution rather than any formal change in project schedules. 

E&C takes largest share of costs 

Rystad Energy estimates facility repair and restoration costs for impacted oil and gas facilities could cost about $46 billion. At the facility level, engineering and construction accounts for the largest share of total expected outlay, followed by equipment and materials. This is consistent with the dominance of downstream and integrated assets in the damage profile, where repair activity involves rebuilding structural components, reinstating process units and re-integrating complex systems.

The sequencing of spending is equally important. Engineering and assessment activity progresses relatively quickly, but the overall timeline is largely governed by procurement and fabrication of critical equipment. While construction and installation can proceed in parallel once materials are available, delays in equipment delivery continue to define the critical path across most major assets. As a result, recovery timelines are less dependent on on-site execution and more on how quickly operators can secure access to constrained supply chains. 

What is emerging is less a reconstruction program and more a competition for access – access to equipment, contractors and logistics capacity. Those that move early will secure capacity and shorten timelines, while others may face delays that extend well beyond the physical scope of damage. The pace of recovery will therefore be defined less by the scale of impact and more by access to constrained supply chains. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 04:15

Germany's Anti-Immigration AfD Party Jumps To 27%, 4 Points Ahead Of CDU

Via Remix News,

In a new poll from YouGov, the Alternative for Germany (AfD0 party jumped to 27 percent, now four points ahead of the rival Christian Democrats (CDU), in a sign that the AfD continues to distance itself as the most popular party in Germany.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel was quick to publish the poll results on X, writing:

“4 percentage points ahead of the Union, 4 out of 5 citizens dissatisfied with Merz: We no longer have time for undemocratic firewalls. The political turnaround must happen now.”

4 Prozentpunkte Abstand zur Union, 4 von 5 Bürgern unzufrieden mit Merz: Wir haben keine Zeit mehr für undemokratische Brandmauern. Die politische Wende muß jetzt erfolgen. pic.twitter.com/rWe3sm04RU

— Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) April 15, 2026

The governing parties that make up the federal government are seeing their fortunes quickly fall.

The CDU/CSU fell by three percentage points to 23 percent, which was the lowest figure measured by YouGov since December 2021.

The SPD figure is at 13 percent, which fell one point from 14 percent.

Meanwhile, the Greens and the Left each gained one point, jumping to 14 percent and 10 percent respectively.

According to the poll, more and more Germans are dissatisfied, totaling 79 percent, with the work of the federal government led by Friedrich Merz. In comparison, in June 2025, this value was only at 55 percent.

Most threatening for Merz, CDU voters are increasingly turning on his government, with only 34 percent saying they are satisfied, falling from 48 percent in March.

Other polls have shown AfD at the top, but with a narrower margin, averaging between 25 and 26 percent of the vote.

Despite the AfD leading, the CDU has vowed to never form a coalition with the party.

If the AfD’s values hold into the next national election, it may become increasingly difficult to form a coalition without the party’s support.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 03:30

Drone Attack On Russia's Tuapse Oil Refinery Unleashes Fire So Large It Can Be Seen From Space

Russia and Ukraine have continued trading blows on key oil and energy sites, with the latest being a drone attack targeting Russia's Tuapse Oil refinery, which unleashed a fire so large it can be picked up by satellites in space.

The refinery is owned by Rosneft and has suffered major attack before, in a March 2025 Ukrainian operation. Local authorities have declared a state of emergency, after schools and residential buildings suffered damage, and all classes have been canceled.

According to the Amsterdam-based Moscow Times, "NASA satellite imagery on Thursday showed a plume of smoke extending around 200 kilometers (125 miles) into the Black Sea from Tuapse, which is located 80 kilometers (50 miles) northwest of the resort city of Sochi."

Krasnodar region Governor Venyamin Kondratyev confirmed that a woman and a teenage girl were killed in the attack on the northeastern Black Sea port town, with several more injured.

Russia's Defense Ministry announced the military had downed 207 drones overnight across multiple regions - listing off Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and the Krasnodar region, and the Black and Azov seas.

This is a somewhat 'normal' night in the now more than 4-year long brutal war. These daily and nightly cross-border attacks have largely slipped from mainstream headline coverage, however, given their frequency - to the point of being 'routine' (a grim reality).

Often even when refineries or major infrastructure is hit in either country, the event barely gets coverage in Western media at this point.

The ongoing Russian aerial assault of Ukraine continues to be more deadly. Ukrainian officials say that overnight attacks there killed 14 people in the capital area as well as Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

Newer footage recorded by Russian civilians shows the size of the fires at the Rosneft Tuapse oil refinery. pic.twitter.com/dmhyvbVQZ4

— Combat Footage (@Comba8Footage) April 16, 2026

At least 700 drones and missiles were launched by Moscow forces overnight, which is a significant and high figure, even after all these years of aerial bombardment.

Currently the globe's attention is largely focused on the Iran war and the Hormuz Strait blockade, and with that efforts to reach a political and peace settlement in Ukraine have faded as well.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 02:45

Afghan Man Arrested For Series Of Rapes Of Goats And Sheep In France

Via Remix News,

A 19-year-old Afghan national has been arrested and charged following a series of brutal sexual attacks on goats and sheep in Pennes-Mirabeau, a municipality in Bouches-du-Rhône, near Marseille.

The suspect was taken into custody by the anti-crime brigade (BAC) on the night of April 9-10, 2026, after local sheep and goat owners alerted police.

Since early 2026, several owners had discovered their animals injured, with incidents reported in both February and March.

The animals had their legs tied and showed clear signs of rape, according to French newspaper La Provence.

After multiple similar episodes, the owners installed motion-sensor cameras on their properties in an attempt to identify the perpetrator.

The footage revealed the silhouette of a young man visiting their livestock at night, and the images were handed over to police, who were eventually able to identify a matching suspect.

The man appeared before a judge on Saturday, April 11, who ordered his placement in pre-trial detention. He was set to appear in court on Monday, April 13.

He faces up to three years in prison and a €45,000 fine for acts of cruelty toward domesticated animals.

The case has drawn the attention of the Animal Protection Association (SPA), which announced it would pursue civil action in the matter.

“[We] are going to take this barbarian to court,” the SPA declared.

“Thank you to the national police for their essential intervention.”

Previous cases

Last year in Germany, a shocking case has emerged from the beautiful town of Oberneufnach in Bavaria, which involved a 52-year-old Turkish asylum seeker allegedly breaking into a stable and sexually abusing ponies.

The man, who is from a refugee shelter in the nearby town of Anhofen, was arrested after he was caught on surveillance video.

The man broke into the horse farm at 6:45 p.m. while the family was having dinner. They heard the dog barking and then looked on surveillance monitors, where they saw the man in the stable with his pants down on top of one of the animals.

The boyfriend then ran to the stables to chase down the man, but he had already fled the scene. He continued his pursuit of the suspect though and eventually caught him. Police arrived and placed the man under arrest.

In 2023, a 27-year-old suspect was arrested after he was caught on a surveillance camera raping a pony at a stable south of Hamburg. The 18-year-old pony, which is named “Carrie,” was abused by the man at 1 a.m., with footage showing the man calmly walking onto the property and starting to attack the defenseless animal.

Steffi B. released the footage to German newspaper Bild, which posted stills of the perpetrator on its web publication.

The attack happened in Birkenmoor, which is in Harburg, just a few kilometers from the Hamburg city center.

Even the petting zoo at the park has not been safe. In 2017, a Syrian migrant raped a pony there in front of children.

“My babysitter was out with our son in Görlitzer Park. They witnessed the man sexually assault the pony,” one woman told Berliner Morgenpost at the time.

The babysitter took a photo of the man as he raped the pony and provided it to police. The migrant was banned from the petting zoo in response, but it is unclear if he was ever charged by police.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/17/2026 - 02:00

Mises, Rothbard, & Libertarian 'Just War' Theory In The 2026 Iran War

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

As of April 2026, the US and Israel are still at war with Iran. The war began on February 28 with surprise bombings that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other high-ranking officials. Since then, attacks on infrastructure have continued, leading to significant disruptions in essential services and escalating tensions in the region. Iran has attacked targets in Gulf nations and tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz as a result.

The conflict has damaged the economy around the world, driving inflation and supply chain disruption fears.

The war is often considered a way to protect Israel, the Gulf nations, and, ultimately, the US against a brutal, theocratic dictatorship that was looking to build nuclear weapons and was the main financier of terrorism in the world.

However, there is a common libertarian question: Do libertarian ideas support sending troops to other countries to stop tyranny?

Ludwig von Mises, writing during the fight against Nazi Germany, supported quick military action.

In Omnipotent Government: The Rise of the Absolute State and Total War (1944), Mises stated that etatism, socialism, and autarky lead to absolute state control, which always leads to violence. Nazism was not an anomaly but the inevitable outcome of such policies, and compromise was unachievable.

Mises said Nazism was not only a German problem but also a threat to Western civilisations. The reader may observe strong parallels between the Iranian regime and its political and terrorist links to other totalitarian regimes, as well as its “death to America” and “annihilation of Israel” policies and its expansionist intentions toward Sunni nations.

Mises believed that if Nazism were not destroyed, the result would be total totalitarianism, reducing people to “slaves in a Nazi-run society” where the individual is rightless.

“The reality of Nazism faces everybody else with an alternative: they must smash Nazism or renounce their self-determination, i.e., their freedom and their very existence as human beings.” “If they yield, they will be slaves in a Nazi-dominated world.” Mises called on the Allies to “fight desperately until the Nazi power is completely broken.”

Mises was clearly against neutrality, saying, “In the current situation, neutrality is the same as supporting Nazism,” highlighting that a decisive victory or the ultimate defeat of Nazism were the only ways to bring back peace and liberal order.

People could only begin to construct a free society subsequent to “the total destruction of Nazism.”. We can argue that Mises believed that the government had a role in protecting civilisation from totalitarianism.

In 2026, a Mises follower would say that the Iranian regime’s theocratic totalitarianism, which includes spreading its influence and power globally, silencing dissent, fighting proxy wars, and looking for nuclear weapons to destroy Israel, is similar to Nazi etatism.

The free world might use strikes to destroy the Iranian regime’s military power and leadership in order to protect itself and avoid a larger war in the region or globally. If everyone had worked together to stop Hitler sooner, World War II might not have happened. Today, using strong force against Tehran could potentially stop a nuclear holocaust, Shiite terrorism, totalitarian expansion, or the massacre of Iranian civilian protesters.

However, Murray Rothbard disagreed with this rationale. He thought that all wars fought by the government were wrong, regardless of who they were against. Rothbard wrote about the non-aggression principle (NAP) in his articles “War, Peace, and the State” and in his bigger libertarian theory of conflict. Violence, he said, is acceptable solely for the protection of individuals from specific criminals, rather than against innocent individuals or through governmental coercion. “It is acceptable to use violence against criminals to protect one’s rights to life and property; however, it is completely unacceptable to infringe upon the rights of innocent individuals.”

Rothbard said that countries can’t fight just wars because they get their money through taxes and their military forces through conscription. He also reminded us that modern weapons are so deadly that they always kill civilians. Even a “defensive” war against tyranny gives the country that becomes involved more power at home. “War is the health of the state.” “True freedom from tyranny must come from the oppressed rising up against their oppressors, not from outside forces that only put a new ruler in place.” Rothbard would probably call U.S.-Israeli strikes “aggressive state expansion” in Iran, no matter how authoritarian the government was. He could argue that wars in the Middle East never seem to end to support his claim that foreign “liberation” always leads to more oppression at home.

There are important additional elements of debate.

The protests in Iran in 2025 and 2026 showed that it was almost impossible to obtain rid of the government from the inside, as evidenced by the government’s strong response to dissent and the lack of effective opposition movements that could challenge its authority. In late December 2025, protests about the economy quickly turned into calls for regime change all over the country. Security forces killed tens of thousands of people in January 2026. The government cut off the internet for the whole country, arrested over 50,000 citizens, tortured and made thousands disappear, and accelerated executions. This brutal suppression, one of the bloodiest crackdowns in modern history, may create doubts about Rothbard’s point. When a totalitarian regime has complete control over its security forces and is willing to kill its people, peaceful or even armed internal revolution becomes virtually impossible. If the regime has expansionary policies and finances terrorism and totalitarian regimes elsewhere, it may even be more problematic, as such actions can lead to increased international instability and the potential for external conflicts that distract from internal dissent.

This division of ideas exemplifies the fundamental libertarian just war theory.

The non-aggression principle (NAP) takes the old ideas of just war—just cause, right aim, last resort, proportionality, and discrimination and improves them. You can only attack people who are a real aggressive threat.

Both views may be relevant in the Iran war, and opinions may change depending on one’s personal perception of the threat posed by the Iranian regime.

Mises’ realism may be used to highlight the regime’s aggression, threats to Israel and America, and use of terrorism and proxy militias to justify strikes aiming at the lowest possible count of civilian casualties. Critics, following Rothbard, may say that the campaign goes against just war principles because it uses state force.

Is the Iran regime a global and national security threat or just another autocracy like so many others that exist in the world? The difference in perceptions about the war is likely to come down to this question. Consider whether you believe the actions of the Iran regime, both inside and outside the nation, pose a global threat or are irrelevant. I believe we can all agree that the Iranian regime has significant differences with other dictatorships. It is undeniable that the Iranian regime has a policy of annihilating Israel, states that “death to America is not a slogan but a policy,” and is involved in terrorist activities and the financing of dictatorships from Latin America to Lebanon. The question, then, is what actions should be taken in response? The answer will come down to each person’s view of the extent of the global threat that the Iranian regime supposes.

The war in Iran is sparking numerous debates among libertarians, demonstrating that libertarianism is not a cult that imposes unified thought. What matters, ultimately, is that independence of thought and free will remain as core principles of the debate.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 23:25

US Navy Destroyer Shows Off New Launcher For Mystery Weapons

The U.S. Navy has quietly equipped one of its Arleigh Burke-class destroyers with a previously unseen launcher, reflecting a broader effort to counter the growing threat posed by drones in contested maritime environments, according to TWZ.

USS Carl M. Launcher mounted on Levin (DDG 120) (U.S. Navy, VIRIN: 260329-M-FP389-1205)

A U.S. Marine Corps photograph released April 8, taken March 29 at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, shows the USS Carl M. Levin fitted with the system on its aft upper deck. The multi-cell launcher, positioned between the port-side torpedo tubes and the aft Mk 41 Vertical Launch System, was not visible in imagery of the ship as recently as December 2025, TWZ reported.

A Japanese-language defense blog first noted the addition on social media, prompting speculation that it may be designed for counter-unmanned aerial systems missions.

USS Carl M. Levin (DDG 120) got a new Hellfire/JAGM launcher improving C-UAS capability.

はてなブログに投稿しました
米海軍DDGへのC-UAS用Hellfire/JAGM発射機搭載 - OSINFO https://t.co/R8hyf4B6L6#はてなブログ

— おるか (@hone_hone_bone_) April 8, 2026

Similar launcher configurations appeared last year aboard the USS Bainbridge and USS Winston S. Churchill for Raytheon’s Coyote counter-drone interceptors, which have been used to engage low-cost aerial threats in the Red Sea and other regions, according to TWZ.

It remains unclear whether the system installed on the Levin is intended to deploy interceptors, loitering munitions, decoys or a combination of capabilities. Navy officials did not respond to requests for comment from TWZ.

The upgrade comes as President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports beginning April 13. The operation, launched after the collapse of weekend talks in Islamabad, is aimed at interdicting maritime traffic to and from Iran, including along the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, in an effort to increase economic pressure on Tehran. The blockade, applied across vessels of all nations, has contributed to volatility in global oil markets, with prices rising above $100 a barrel.

In the first 24 hours of the blockade, under direction from U.S. Central Command, no vessels succeeded in breaching the cordon, according to the Pentagon. Six merchant ships complied with instructions from U.S. forces and turned back to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. More than 10,000 U.S. sailors, Marines and airmen, supported by more than a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft, are involved in the operation.

More than 10,000 U.S. Sailors, Marines, and Airmen along with over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft are executing the mission to blockade ships entering and departing Iranian ports. During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and 6 merchant vessels… pic.twitter.com/dpWAAknzQp

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 14, 2026

Trump has warned Iranian military ships against interfering with the blockade.

“Iran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated – 158 ships. What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, ‘fast attack ships,’ because we did not consider them much of a threat,” the president wrote on Truth Social. “Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 23:00

India's Central Bank Tells Oil Refiners To Stop Buying Dollars On Spot Market

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

India’s central bank has told state-run oil refiners to stop buying dollars in the spot market and instead use a government-backed credit line.

That matters because oil is priced in dollars, and refiners are some of the biggest buyers of dollars in the country. When they all go into the market at once to pay for crude, it puts direct pressure on the rupee. That pressure has been building for weeks.

The Reserve Bank of India is now stepping in to manage the demand.

State refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation, have been asked to draw dollars through a special credit facility routed via State Bank of India. Together, these companies account for about half of India’s 5.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity.

Instead of going into the open market to buy dollars on the spot—meaning immediate purchase at current exchange rates—they can either access this credit line or buy dollars at a reference rate set by the central bank—potentially adding costs to India’s oil refiners.

The goal is simple: reduce visible demand for dollars in the market.

India’s currency has been under pressure. The rupee has fallen more than 3% this year and hit a record low past 95 per dollar in March, driven by higher oil prices and foreign capital outflows. Oil imports are a major factor. India imports the bulk of its crude, and every cargo requires dollar payments.

By centralizing those flows through SBI and shifting demand off the spot market, the RBI is trying to smooth out volatility and limit sharp moves in the currency.

The measures have been in place for about two weeks. Traders say activity from oil companies in the spot market has already slowed.

The move follows additional direction from India’s government in February, which asked refiners to consider buying more crude oil cargoes from the US and Venezuela, steering clear of Russian crude.

The central bank has also sold dollars from its reserves and tightened rules around certain currency trades. The rupee has since recovered about 2%, last trading near 93.20 per dollar.

For now, the strategy is focused on managing dollar demand at the source: oil imports

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 22:35

Last US Convoy Exits Syria After Brutal 14-Year Regime Change Proxy War

Widespread reports on Thursday say the very last US military convoy has finally departed Syrian territory, with the years-long occupation of the primarily northeast oil and gas rich sector over in a 'mission accomplished' fashion.

It brings to a final close the 14-year long bloody proxy war which overthrew the Assad government and ultimately installed a pro-US/Saudi axis puppet, in the person of founding Syrian Al Qaeda Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, now known as President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

via Le Monde

Hundreds of thousand of people lost their lives in the regime change war, with the country and its economy left in a sanction-starved and conflict-demolished state of ruins.

The US-backed Syrian Foreign Ministry declared Washington had decided to "complete its military mission" in the country. "The Syrian state is today fully capable of leading counter-terrorism efforts from within, in co-operation with the international community," it said, happy to now be back in control of the domestic oil and gas supply.

The ministry "welcomes the completed handover of military sites where United States forces were previously present in Syria to the Syrian government," adding that "the handover of these sites was carried out ... in full coordination between the Syrian and American governments."

While Pentagon propaganda had for years touted an 'anti-ISIS' mission, the real purpose of the troop presence was to cut off Damascus under Assad of its sovereign natural resources, and to arm and prop up a Kurdish-Arab coalition called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). 

All the while, the CIA supported Sunni hardline jihadists who were indistinguishable from ISIS in their ideology in the fight against the Syrian Army, and the civilian population which often largely supported the secular Ba'ath government. The broader strategy has long been to destroy the Tehran-Baghdad-Hezbollah 'Shia axis' - even if that meant using ISIS as a tool of regime change.

Ironically, in the process of this US handover of oil and gas facilities back to post-Assad Damascus, the Kurds were thrown under the bus. Their dream for an autonomous enclave (Rojava) once again proved illusory, and in the long term the Kurds will find themselves at the mercy of Sunni fanatics on the one hand, and Turkish state under Erdogan on the other.

The United States did not withdraw from Syria. The United States privatized Syria. The man President Trump installed as the sovereign face of the Hormuz bypass architecture was on the Specially Designated Global Terrorist list with a ten million dollar American bounty on his head… pic.twitter.com/mhmX7g2x6p

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) April 16, 2026

Following the US withdrawal, Jolani regime troops moved into Qasrak Base in Hasakah Governorate in north-eastern Syria on Thursday. Earlier, in February, the US exited the Shaddadi in eastern Syria and Al-Tanf on the Syria–Jordan–Iraq border.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed the completion of the process for "turning over all of our major bases in Syria." But it also said US forces "continue to support partner-led counter-terrorism efforts."

* * *

Repositioning troops related to ongoing anti-Iran operations...

It seems that the US has ended its ground presence in Syria, which lasted for 12 years.

The last convoy has just rolled out of the Qasrak base in northeastern Syria and is now moving toward Jordan.

We all know what that means. pic.twitter.com/kUlk0r5zsf

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) April 16, 2026

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 22:10

What AI Doesn't Know - And Why It Matters

Authored by Richard Porter via RealClearPolitics,

Artificial intelligence has taken the wired world by storm, but the backlash came almost as fast. Progressives complain of job losses, environmentalists question the ecological impacts of huge data centers, and local activists are clamoring for assurances that household utility bills won’t skyrocket because of the centers’ voracious electricity requirements. Others simply worry that the technology will overwhelm humans’ ability to control it.

At least in part, these reactions stem from the overselling of AI.

AI is super cool, but it’s not superhuman nor is it super intelligent. AI is simply very fast processing of vast amounts of data.

Intelligence, knowledge, understanding and wisdom are all different concepts; the distinction between them elucidates the scope and limits of both human and electronic “intelligence.”

Intelligence is the ability to process information into an internally coherent framework that’s useful and adds or detracts from knowledge to the extent it is more or less accurate. Knowledge is the accumulation of information organized into coherent frames or models that help us understand. Understanding is awareness of the significance, purpose, or meaning of accumulated knowledge.

And wisdom is judgment seasoned by experience and the awareness that intelligence, knowledge, and understanding are limited, inherently flawed, and useful only to the extent they advance a worthwhile purpose.

Nearly 2,500 years ago, the Oracle of Delphi reportedly declared that no man was wiser than Socrates. Socrates claimed to be stunned by this because he was keenly aware of how much he didn’t know. But after talking to others widely acclaimed to be knowledgeable, such as the leading politicians, poets, philosophers, and artisans of his day, he discerned this Delphic wisdom: Those claiming knowledge were ignorant of their own ignorance, whereas Socrates knew he knew nothing.

For this insight, Socrates was put to death for impiety and corrupting the youth of Athens, thereby proving for all time both the foolishness of his accusers’ certainty and the wisdom of Socratic questioning.

This bears repeating today, as we enter the Age of Artificial Intelligence: it’s wise to question the “intelligence” of machines, the “knowledge” they propagate, and our understanding of the significance and limits of the technology.

AI models are amazing and useful despite being incomprehensible to most of us, but AI is not infallible. AI will expand human knowledge and understanding of the world only if and to the extent that human users are encouraged to question AI results, processes, and functions.

People make mistakes, as do the people making and training the machines. Still, people tend to trust machines more than people, especially with respect to processing information that’s harder to process. For example, tennis players have more faith in electronic line calls over human line calls, although that faith in the new technology has been shaken by errors, such as when ball marks are inconsistent with the electronic line calls.

As AI use spreads, people will increasingly rely on AI and trust its results for routine tasks (like Google searches), while most people remain more skeptical of AI results for more complex tasks and do not trust AI to act to handle certain tasks for its users without human intervention.

It’s wise to question AI’s results; errors are common even in routine searches.

Examples of AI errors, hallucinations and political bias are rife. A Northwestern University business school professor of my acquaintance recently asked ChatGPT for advice evaluating investment alternatives. ChatGPT recommended he invest in a particular fund and described in detail that fund’s returns, risks, and assets. When the professor went to invest in ChatGPT’s recommended fund, he discovered the fund did not actually exist; ChatGPT made it all up (a phenomenon commonly referred to as “AI hallucination”). 

Indeed, AI can screw up even mundane tasks: In my research for this piece, a Google AI summary ascribed quotes to Socrates that are not supported by any historical record.

Artificial intelligence – like human intelligence – is prone to error and is not always reliable, but that’s to be expected, especially in a fledgling technology. AI is artificial intelligence, not artificial knowledge, understanding, or wisdom.  AI is a processor, a very fast processor, that organizes and distills information – and organized information is easier to evaluate and use by humans than vast amounts of unorganized information.

Properly understood, AI supplements and does not replace human intelligence, knowledge, or understanding; plus, the limitations and faults within these amazing models remind us that human intelligence is limited, too. Human intelligence imperfectly organizes the imperfect data to which a human has access and frames data in a subjective, not an objective, manner.

Many of us expect the machines that humans make to have “better” intelligence than the intelligence of its human creators – more objective, more comprehensive, more insightful. This is a naïve hope. In one sense, it is “better.” AI organizes more information faster than humans can. But who do they think programmed the thing? Every AI model is regurgitating imperfect information collected, created, and input by imperfect, subjective human beings.

What to make of all this?

First, perhaps the math nerds creating AI are mistakenly training machines to handle information processing on human topics as if human topics are math problems with a specific answer.  Perhaps instead, machines should be trained to suggest questions to consider instead of answers to accept with respect to human inquiries relating to politics, economics, psychology, child rearing, crop science – the full range of arts, humanities, and social sciences.

Second, people training these machines should be explicit about the biases and perspectives being built into how the AI organizes, sorts, and frames information. (My own bias on this topic is that I believe American AI companies should be building AI with quintessentially American framing.) 

Third, AI creators should consider the political, regulatory, and legal risks of “overselling” what AI is and what it can do. For example, should AI creators anticipate a duty to warn users of shortcomings with AI’s results and/or disclaimers of warranties?

Fourth, AI creators need to consider improving the quality of data upon which the systems are being trained, recognizing that many online data sources intentionally mislead to advance political agendas. Perfectly “unbiased” information is impossible to obtain, but some information is more accurate and less biased than other information; trainers should exercise better judgement about data.

The creation of AI large language models is an incredible feat of engineering. It’s quite useful, and will soon be essential, but it is still a product of human invention. As such, we need to recognize that AI is ultimately just the latest, greatest – but still imperfect – implement invented and used by homo sapiens to make life better for homo sapiens.

Richard Porter is a member of the Board of Directors of the Alfa Institute, a platform for ideas, policy proposals and new technology integration pertaining to artificial intelligence

* * *

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 21:45

Why The Crash Was Delayed

Authored by Robert Aro via Mises Institute,

Whatever happened to the mother of all crashes that was supposed to arrive when the Federal Reserve began tightening its balance sheet back in 2022? For several years, I’ve been scratching my head, convinced that draining the balance sheet by trillions of dollars should have triggered a systemic banking failure or some other Black Swan event. In the past, crises like Lehman/AIG or the 2020 lockdowns took the blame, when in reality, the root cause was always monetary.

From the peak in June 2022 to the trough in December 2025, the asset side of the Fed’s balance sheet shrank by roughly $2.3 trillion. That was the front door. But through the back door, something else was happening on the liability side: the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) was releasing $2.5 trillion of previously frozen private liquidity back into the financial system. 

If Quantitative Tightening (QT) removed liquidity, the RRP added it back... plus interest.

To recap: during QT, the Fed allows its holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to mature. Financial intermediaries repay the Fed, and the Fed literally deletes that money from the system. This is the classic setup that exposes malinvestments, stresses credit markets, and reveals the imbalances described in Austrian Business Cycle Theory. 

But this time it really was different because of the Reverse Repo Facility.

By mid-2023, the (March 2023) Silicon Valley Bank crisis had passed and the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program was alive and well; then the hikes finally tapped out. Eventually, the 1-Month (4-Week) Market Yield on U.S. Treasuries outpaced the Fed’s RRP rate, and the incentive changed. Fund managers began a stampede out of the Fed’s facility and rotated into T-bills to chase a higher risk-free return.

In less than two years, the RRP withdrawals injected around $100 to $200 billion+ a month into the financial system at its peak. This was effectively a backdoor stimulus program that bypassed the Fed’s official QT narrative and funded the government’s deficit. Correlation does not equal causation, but it’s also not surprising that the Dow Jones broke out to new highs at almost the exact moment the RRP began to unwind.

The system was running on stored liquidity thanks to a giant buffer accumulated during the pandemic stimulus era. But as of 2026, that buffer is gone. The RRP liability has flatlined at essentially zero, meaning that the trillion-dollar offset to QT has been fully exhausted.

Perhaps it was no coincidence that once the RRP hit empty, the Fed’s tightening ended. On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced it would begin Reserve Management Purchases (RMP’s) at a pace of approximately $40 billion per month. While they use Fedspeak to avoid the term Quantitative Easing (QE), in reality, they’ve returned to official balance sheet expansion. They are being forced to replace the lost RRP liquidity with fresh money printing.

The math remains staggering. Since June 2022, the Fed was slashing its balance sheet by embarking on a QT narrative. The result? A net liquidity injection to the tune of $200 billion. And they called it “tightening.”

With the RRP buffer now empty, we are entering uncharted territory. The Fed’s $40 billion a month balance sheet expansion is several times less than what was entering the system via the RRP drain. Ironically, what the Fed hopes will act as QE might feel more like QT. We are about to find out just how long the system can survive a true monetary contraction.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 20:55

US Army Trials Unmanned Hunter Wolf Robot With Gun, Radar In Combat Drills

The U.S. Army is quietly putting armed robots through their paces alongside real soldiers - and new footage suggests these machines could soon be a regular sight on tomorrow’s battlefields.

Wolf-X robotic combat vehicle by HDT Global.Blade HDT

Fresh imagery dropped on Monday by the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service shows a Hunter Wolf unmanned ground vehicle rolling with the 101st Airborne Division during a full-on combat simulation at the Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC) in Louisiana. The display amounted to a serious stress test in one of the Army’s roughest training environments - where ideas either prove they work or get ditched fast.

The Hunter Wolf’s appearance at JRTC marks a significant shift - as units aren’t just playing around with unmanned gear in isolated experiments anymore; they’re dropping it straight into realistic, chaotic scenarios. Elements of the 101st used the vehicle for logistics runs and security tasks throughout the exercise. Photos show it fitted with a remotely operated .50-caliber machine gun, which hints that the Army is testing it for more than just hauling supplies—it’s being eyed for actual tactical roles too.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by HDT Global (@hdtglobal)

The Hunter Wolf was originally picked up under the Army’s Small Multipurpose Equipment Transport program to take some of the crushing load off soldiers’ backs. But at Fort Polk, they ran it with a remote weapon station and EchoShield radar, turning it into a rolling set of eyes and teeth. The combo lets a unit push sensors and firepower forward without putting troops in the open. The robot can scout ahead, scan for threats, and even lay down fire while the soldiers stay under cover.

At the same time, it still hauls the basics - ammo, water, batteries, comms gear - so small units can stay mobile and supplied across wide, contested spaces. In today’s fights, logistics and security are blurring together anyway. A robot that can do both fits right in.

Defense analyst Teoman S. Nicanci (Army Recognition Group) points out that the real story here is the Army choosing a high-intensity training rotation like JRTC instead of a safe, staged test. It shows they’re serious about folding this tech into actual formations and missions, not just checking boxes.

For units like the 101st, where speed and mobility are everything, these unmanned platforms help keep that edge without burning out the troops or exposing them unnecessarily. Future battles are going to be packed with drones, artillery, and precision strikes—anything that cuts risk while keeping the pressure on is worth its weight.

Bottom line: the Hunter Wolf isn’t science fiction anymore. The Army is learning, right now, how to weave robots into the fight so soldiers can move faster, hit harder, and come home safer.

h/t Interesting Engineering

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/16/2026 - 20:30