Zero Hedge

StanChart CEO Scrambles Into Damage Control After "Lower-Value Human Capital" Comment Triggers Backlash

StanChart CEO Scrambles Into Damage Control After "Lower-Value Human Capital" Comment Triggers Backlash

Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters and his team spent Wednesday in damage-control mode after the head of the London-based international bank told investors on Tuesday that artificial intelligence would be used to replace "lower-value human capital," sparking a backlash online.

"Many of you will have seen media coverage following the Investor Event in Hong Kong, particularly the reporting around automation, AI, and workforce changes," Winters wrote in an internal memo to employees on Wednesday that was seen by Bloomberg.

He continued, "I know this may be unsettling when reduced to simple headlines or a quote out of context."

The outrage stems from STAN's Tuesday announcement to cut 15% of its corporate roles (about 7,800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.

During the investor event, Winters said, "It's not cost-cutting, it's replacing low-value human capital with financial and investment capital." The substitution of workers in favor of machines "will accelerate as we go forward into AI."

Bloomberg noted that Winters' memo sent to workers earlier today "adopted a more empathetic tone, emphasizing the bank's commitment to supporting its workforce during the transition."

That memo read, "We will continue to invest in technology, platforms, and automation to improve how we operate, serve clients and position the Bank for long-term growth. I want to be absolutely clear that the future of Standard Chartered depends on the talent, judgment, relationships, and commitment of you, our colleagues."

Socialists were not thrilled with Winters' "lower-value human capital" comment:

"Angry? You should be! This is how the employer described its staff: "lower-value human capital."

Beyond StanChart, corporate America is losing engineers and other white-collar workers who are burdened by insurmountable student and credit card debt as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered as the great "white-collar purge," and the response may be continued backlash toward data centers.

Earlier today, Meta began cutting 8,000 jobs, while leaked audio of CEO Mark Zuckerberg described how AI is monitoring high-skilled employees. According to X user Official Layoff, who leaked the audio: "AI is replacing the contractor. Then the employee trains the AI. Then the AI replaces the employee."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 12:25

Three Supertankers Carrying 6 Million Barrels Exit Strait Of Hormuz

Three Supertankers Carrying 6 Million Barrels Exit Strait Of Hormuz

Three commercial supertankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Middle East crude oil have successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters.

The vessels departed the strategic waterway on Wednesday, after being stranded inside the Persian Gulf for over two months, lending hope to an end to the closure of the strait.

The crude cargoes were split evenly among three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) heading to Asian refining hubs. The first was Universal Winner, a South Korean-flagged supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude oil. Shipping data on LSEG and Kpler showed that the vessel is currently en route to Ulsan, South Korea, to discharge at an SK Energy facility by June 9.

The second VLCC was Yuan Gui Yang, a Chinese-flagged vessel hauling 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude. Chartered by Unipec (the trading arm of Sinopec), the supertanker is heading toward Guangdong province with an expected arrival on June 4.

Finally there was Ocean Lily, a Hong Kong-flagged tanker loaded with 2 million barrels split evenly between Qatari al-Shaheen and Iraqi Basrah crude. Owned by Sinochem, the vessel is tracking toward Fujian province for a June 5 arrival.

Combined, the trio have about 6 million barrels of crude on board — one of the biggest oil flows in a single 24 hour period in over a month.

All three vessels switched off their digital transponders before exiting. Two have since transited the strait and were sighted near Oman while the status of the third is unclear. It also remains to be seen if they all can get past a seaparte US blockade. The supertanker heading to South Korea, the Universal Winner, is the first observed sailing by a VLCC to the Asian country since the war began.

Iran's state TV underscored that the country now appears to be in sole control over who crosses the strait and who doesn't. “Today other countries like South Korea, taking their example from the Chinese, coordinated with the IRGC navy and arranged the passage of their ships through the Strait of Hormuz,” the TV correspondent says in report from near the strait. “Coordination increased today and it’s expected to increase further tomorrow”

The correspondent said he witnessed five oil supertankers passing the strait with IRGC coordination, without giving further details

Meanwhile, following the footsteps of China and South Korea, India is preparing to send its own vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to load up energy cargoes from suppliers in the Middle East, Bloomberg reported; it would be the first time since the Iran conflict began that the country will do so.

State-owned Shipping Corp. of India is ready to go back to the Persian Gulf once it has approval from the Indian Navy and it has business from oil refiners, one of the people said. 

Shipping through Hormuz, which handles roughly a fifth of global oil flows, has been virtually halted since the Iran war began at the end of February, causing major disruptions and price shocks for countries like India, the world’s third-largest crude importer. It’s unclear whether Iran or the US, which are separately blockading the strait and surrounding waters amid the war, have given India a green light to send ships through the waterway. Their agreement will be critical for the plan to work. 

India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in New Delhi on the sidelines of a BRICS summit last week.

Recent White House briefings indicated potential progress toward an agreement to de-escalate hostilities, giving energy markets hope for a more permanent reopening of the chokepoint. Details on permanent enforcement or full reopening conditions remain sparse despite reports of Washington and Tehran having allegedly engaged in productive conversations via mediators, often with contradictory statements.

Few ships have so far managed to break through the Strait of Hormuz, with regional oil exports currently well below pre-war baselines.

Energy analysts emphasize that even if the conflict ends immediately, a backlog of structural damages and shuttered upstream infrastructure means market normalization will likely take three to four months and high oil prices are likely to persist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 11:45

The AI Economy, Part 1: Looking Beyond The Facade

The AI Economy, Part 1: Looking Beyond The Facade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The US economy’s curb appeal looks great. Consider that gasoline prices are nearly $5, crude oil is trading above $100, consumer sentiment is at historically low levels, and mortgage and other interest rates have remained relatively high. Yet, despite the worrisome headwinds, the US consumer-driven economy continues to expand. However, as with a house’s curb appeal, it’s not just the headline data that defines an economy. Equally important is its supporting structure. Let’s open the door to our economy to better appreciate how AI is currently impacting it and how it may change in the future.  

The question we explore here is whether the AI investment boom is genuinely broadening this country’s economic footing or weakening the labor force, the foundation of the economy.

We separate the article into two parts. Part one is the optimistic case: an AI-induced, productivity-led economic boom in which the benefits spread quickly to society.  Part Two will address a more bearish outlook: the possibility of a large gap in the distribution of AI’s productivity benefits, accruing to corporations much more quickly than to employees.  

AI Spending Drives GDP

The amount of capital flowing into AI infrastructure development and thus GDP is enormous. As shown in the graph below, the capital expenditures (Capex) of just four companies, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, are now over $700 billion annually, roughly 7x what they were five years ago. Based on the 2026 Capex expectations, a third of GDP growth could come from the four companies.

The AI buildout extends well beyond the four balance sheets noted above. Every dollar of Capex spent by the large hyperscalers creates demand across a wide supply chain. For example, construction firms are building data center campuses the size of small cities, utility companies are scrambling to add generation capacity, domestic semiconductor producers are ramping up output, and fiber optic and networking suppliers have multi-year order backlogs. The electrical grid is facing its first sustained demand growth in two decades, driven almost entirely by data center power requirements, which are projected to more than double by 2030.

Historical Context

The scale of today’s AI buildout has historical precedent. For instance, the railroad expansion of the mid-1800s involved more extreme infrastructure investment, with railway Capex estimated to have consumed as much as 10-20% of GDP at its peak. A more recent and appropriate comparison is the telecom buildout of the late 1990s, when Capex peaked at roughly 1.0-1.2% of US GDP. Today’s AI infrastructure spending by just the four companies has recently surpassed that telecom figure.

But unlike the debt-fueled telecom boom, today’s AI spending has thus far been funded almost entirely by the cash and cash flows of extremely profitable corporations. While the composition of funding is shifting from cash and free cash flow to debt, the companies noted above have debt-to-equity ratios well below the S&P 500 average and significantly lower than during the telecom buildout. Moreover, earnings from other highly profitable business lines will continue to provide them with substantial cash for investment.

The Consumer Is Resilient But Running Thin

While AI spending is tremendous and boosting the economy, some argue that it is masking weaknesses in consumer spending, which is the most important contributor to economic growth.  The graph below shows that consumer spending accounts for about 67% of GDP, as it has since 2001. There has been no discernible change over the last few years since the advent of AI.

While the recent contribution of consumer spending has not changed meaningfully, its sustainability is a key factor driving future growth. While consumption is holding, there are signs that the means to spend are deteriorating. For instance, the personal savings rate has fallen to near its lowest level since 1960, as shown below. This suggests that a growing share of personal consumption is being funded by drawing down savings rather than by current earnings.

Such behavior is not unusual during periods of strong employment, as consumers spend more when they are confident about their job and wage prospects. That said, a low savings rate is a yellow flag, but it has coexisted with healthy economic expansions before.

The more important gauge of future consumption is wages, which leads us to the labor market

A Churning Labor Market

AI will swallow up jobs, some pessimists say. Thus far, that is not the case. For instance, in 2025, nearly 55,000 of 1.17 million layoffs were directly attributed to AI, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Other estimates peg the number higher at 200,000–300,000 positions in 2025. While that estimate is more concerning, it is only about 0.15–0.20% of total nonfarm employment.

Looking forward, the outlook gets murky. Goldman Sachs has a dire outlook with 300 million jobs globally at risk. But that only tells half the story. The World Economic Forum (WEF) estimates that AI will create 170 million jobs globally.

There is no doubt that AI will have significant impacts on the economy, labor market, and many individuals. Prior innovations are proof. To wit, about two-thirds of US jobs in the 1940s no longer exist. The replacement jobs were enabled by new innovations.

While the future remains uncertain, the past relationship between job growth, wages, and productivity is encouraging. As we share below, PwC claims “wages are rising 2x faster in industries most vs least exposed to AI.”

Productivity Gains Will Spread

Economic growth and wage growth are a direct function of productivity. Productivity measures the amount of leverage an economy can generate from its two primary inputs, labor and capital. Without productivity, an economy is solely reliant on two limited inputs. Thus, without productivity growth, economic growth is unlikely over the long run.

Therefore, it’s critical to discuss how much productivity AI will generate and how it will be distributed.  The first part, how much, is nearly impossible to assess today. That said, PwC estimates that productivity growth has nearly quadrupled in AI-exposed industries since 2022. Further:

Is AI really the cause of this surge in productivity? We can’t prove causation with certainty, but we do know that revenue growth in AI-exposed industries accelerated sharply in 2022, the year that the launch of ChatGPT 3.5 awakened the world to AI’s power. Since then, as companies have raced to leverage this technology, the value created in industries best positioned to use AI has skyrocketed. In the space of two years, industries most able to use AI have changed from productivity laggards to leaders, suggesting that investments in AI are paying off. AI’s promise is proving to be real, and we are only in the early days of AI adoption.  

Regarding the distribution of productivity, some pessimists argue that AI’s productivity gains are flowing overwhelmingly to high-income knowledge workers. While that is currently true, that has also been the case with every major technology wave in its early phase. Factory automation initially benefited capital owners. Personal computers initially benefited white-collar workers. The internet initially benefited the educated and connected. But over time, prices fall, adoption rates grow, and the benefits spread across the entire workforce.

History’s verdict is consistent: the benefits start narrow and ultimately spread wide across the economy. As we share in the graphic below, as a result of the US being a global leader in innovation, our poorest states, Mississippi, West Virginia, and Arkansas, have a similar or higher GDP per capita than other large nations.

Summary

While still early in the AI revolution, the economic data points to genuine economic momentum. Whether AI productivity benefits can become more broadly based across the economy is the question that Part Two of this article addresses.

Before we present the other side, we will leave you with a PwC table that addresses concerns about productivity and the labor market.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 11:25

Judge Blocks ICE Agents From Conducting Arrests At Immigration Courts In New York

Judge Blocks ICE Agents From Conducting Arrests At Immigration Courts In New York

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge issued a ruling on May 18 barring federal agents from conducting arrests at three Manhattan immigration courts, except in limited circumstances.

A federal officer stands by in a hallway at New York Federal Plaza Immigration Court inside the Jacob K. Javitz Federal Building in New York on October 1, 2025. Charly Triballeau / AFP via Getty Images

The ruling by U.S. District Judge P. Kevin Castel stemmed from a lawsuit filed by the New York Civil Liberties Union and other groups on behalf of The Door and African Communities Together, which sought to challenge U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) policies that allow federal agents to arrest people in immigration courts.

Castel had initially declined to block the policy last September, but the plaintiffs later filed a motion in response to a March letter in which the government admitted that the 2025 ICE guidance—which it had relied on to justify arrests at immigration courts following the lawsuit—“does not and has never applied” to civil immigration enforcement actions at immigration courts.

In a 15-page ruling on May 18, Castel granted the plaintiffs’ request to stay the ICE policy, barring federal agents from arresting people at three Manhattan immigration courts—26 Federal Plaza, 201 Varick Street, and 290 Broadway—except under “certain enumerated circumstances.”

“There is a strong governmental interest in enforcing immigration laws. There is also a serious interest of The Door to be free to assist its members in defending removal proceedings brought against them and pursuing defensive asylum applications before an [immigration judge] without fear of arrest,” Castel stated.

The judge added that ICE agents are only allowed to make arrests at immigration courts when there are “serious threats of physical harm to public safety.”

Castel also said the government’s concession that the 2025 policies did not apply to immigration courts warranted reexamining his previous ruling “to correct a clear error and prevent a manifest injustice.”

In a March 24 letter addressed to Castel, government lawyers expressed regret over a “material mistaken statement of fact” presented to the court and said it was caused by “agency attorney error.”

“This error, however, was not caused by a lack of diligence and care by the undersigned attorneys. The undersigned were specifically informed by ICE that the 2025 ICE Guidance applied to immigration courthouse arrests,” the letter states.

Amy Belsher, director of Immigrants’ Rights Litigation at the New York Civil Liberties Union, called the latest ruling “an enormous win for noncitizen New Yorkers seeking to safely attend their immigration court proceedings.”

We look forward to a final ruling in the case that sets aside these cruel, pointless policies once and for all,” Belsher said in a May 18 statement.

The Epoch Times reached out to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:45

Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom

Oil Prices Extend Decline After The Largest Crude Inventory Drawdown In History, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom

Oil futures are down bigly this morning following comments from President Trump that the war in Iran would be ended "very quickly," but investors remained uncertain about the potential for de-escalation.

"We're going to end that war very quickly. They want to make a deal so badly, they're tired of - this should have happened for 47 years," Trump told a group of Congress members at the White House's annual congressional picnic on Tuesday.

"Somebody should have done something about it. And it's going to happen, and it's going to happen fast. And you're going to see oil prices plummet," the president added.

Oil's declines were also reportedly driven by this optimism about a final deal draft peace agreement:

On Tuesday, two Chinese tankers carrying crude oil traversed the Strait of Hormuz.

Another, a South Korean vessel, was passing through it, according to a Reuters report. Jim Reid, of Deutsche Bank, noted that this marks "one of the busiest days since the closure."

However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards also warned on Wednesday that any renewed strikes on Iran could expand the war beyond the region.

The IRGC also said it had not used all its capacities against the U.S. and Israel, while warning that their "devastating blows will crush" the adversaries, the IRGC said in a statement on its Sepah News website.

For now, all eyes are on the official inventory and supply data (and SPR) after yuuuge draws reported by API overnight...

API

  • Crude -9.1mm (-3.4mm exp)

  • Cushing -1.4mm

  • Gasoline -5.8mm

  • Distillates -1.0mm

DOE

  • Crude -7.863mm (-6.0mm exp)

  • Cushing -1.604mm

  • Gasoline -1.548mm

  • Distillates +372k

Crude stocks tumbled last week (biggest draw since Feb 13th) for the fourth week in a row. Gsoline inventories saw their 14th weekly drawdown in a row whil distillates saw another small build...

Source: Bloomberg

Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns continue to accelerate with 9.92mm barrels/day - a record - drained last week. That means over 10% of the SPR has been drained in the last few weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

Total US crude stocks including the SPR are at the lowest level since June 2025 with this week seeing the largest SPR + Commercial stock drawdown in history...

Gasoline stockpiles continued their steady decline last week, falling another 1.5 million barrels. Stocks are still at the lowest seasonal levels since 2014.

Cushing stocks are rapidly approaching 'tank bottoms' once again...

US Crude production dipped very modestly last week...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI (July 2026) suddenly plunged below $100 just ahead of the official data (on peace deal optimism) and extended the losses after the big draw...

Finally, though the closure of the Strait has already pushed oil prices up by more than half, analytics firm Woods Mackenzie said if the war is extended until the end of the year, oil prices could rise as high as US$200 per barrel, though a quick settlement could lower Brent prices to US$80 by year end.

"The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis," said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie.

"The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth."

The market is awaiting the start of the high-demand U.S. summer driving season, which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday.

It appears that American drivers will face the highest gas prices ever for Memorial Day...

...not great for Midterms/Approval ratings.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:38

Samsung Union Postpones Massive General Strike, Puts Wage Deal To Vote

Samsung Union Postpones Massive General Strike, Puts Wage Deal To Vote

Summary:

  • Samsung Union Postpones Massive Strike For Union Vote On Saturday

  • Samsung Union Authorizes Massive Strike At Memory-Chip Plants After Mediation Talks Collapse  

Samsung Union Postpones General Strike For Weekend Vote 

Late Wednesday night in South Korea, Samsung and its largest union held last-minute negotiations ahead of a massive general strike.

Vice Minister Kwon Chang-jun of the Ministry of Employment and Labor joined the negotiating table between Samsung and its largest union, a move that appears to have led to a breakthrough.

South Korea's national wire service, Yonhap, reports that the union has postponed plans for a strike tomorrow and will put a tentative wage deal to a vote. 

"We will postpone the general strike scheduled for May 21-June 7 until further notice," Samsung and the union wrote in a joint press release. 

The vote on the tentative wage deal begins on Saturday.

Earlier, the union pressed forward with plans for a general strike at Samsung chip fabs due to the company negotiators' inability to scrap an existing bonus cap, allocate 15% of operating profit to worker bonuses, and formalize these new demands in a wage contract.

Samsung had previously proposed allocating 10% of operating profit to bonuses, along with a one-time special compensation package for workers that is well above industry standards.

Samsung executives argued that the union's demands would be challenging to sustain in the coming years. 

Why the union is striking...

Crisis averted? Well, all eyes are on the weekend vote.

Samsung Union Authorizes Massive Strike At Memory-Chip Plants After Mediation Talks Collapse  

Asian equities extended losses for a fourth straight session, with South Korea's benchmark KOSPI falling about 1% as the market priced in the shock of an imminent labor action at Samsung Electronics.

A full-scale, 18-day strike involving more than 47,000 workers at the world's largest memory-chip maker is set to begin Thursday, raising the risk of production disruptions across the global semiconductor supply chain, which is already tight due to AI data center buildouts.

Samsung Electronics' talks with its largest union collapsed overnight as union negotiators demanded the removal of a bonus cap, allocation of 15% of operating profit to worker bonuses, and that those terms be written into contracts, citing memory-chip maker SK Hynix's 10% profit-sharing arrangement.

Samsung negotiators accepted most of the demands, including a proposed 10% operating profit bonus pool and special compensation, but called the union's remaining requests unsustainable.

"We deeply regret that the post-mediation process has concluded [without resolution] due to delays in decision-making by the management," Samsung Electronics Labor Union Chairman Choi Seung-ho told reporters at the National Labor Relations Commission in the city of Sejong. "We cannot help but feel disappointed that the mediation ended without the company ultimately reaching a decision."

Japan's financial outlet Nikkei Asia reported, "The strike would affect only the company's domestic plants, which are the base of its chipmaking operations." 

The collapse in talks comes as Samsung shares surge on record profits, driven by soaring demand for memory chips, even as hyperscalers are set to deploy $700 billion in capex to build AI infrastructure in the US. Demand is also rising globally as the race for AI compute intensifies.

TrendForce data show that Samsung is the world's largest memory chipmaker, with a 36% market share in DRAM chips and one-third in NAND Flash chips.

Commenting on the market reaction, UBS analyst Joe Dickinson noted:

"Asia was lower for a fourth consecutive session, with the KOSPI dropping as much as 3% on Samsung strike risk before partially recovering."

UBS analyst Kevin Loke commented on the FX reaction:

USDKRW initially traded with an offered tone, with spot opening at 1513.4 and falling nearly 10 won to a low of 1503.8. However, headlines that the Samsung union strike will proceed as planned on Thursday, following a breakdown in talks, pushed the pair back higher toward 1510.

A BoK report to the president estimated a potential impact of up to KRW30 trillion in lost production. For now, USDKRW is likely to remain within a broader 1480–1520 range, with the pair relatively less sensitive to the recent thematic shift toward the global bond sell-off.

Samsung shares fell as much as 4.4% before reversing their losses. Notice "Samsung Strike" headlines in corporate media weighing on shares...

Coverage:

Bloomberg pointed out, "The government has previously hinted that it could resort to rarely used emergency powers to prevent a strike if the parties fail to reach an agreement. South Korea has invoked the emergency arbitration mechanism only four times since 1969."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:08

Xi Warns US Against New Iran Strikes, Denounces 'Law Of The Jungle', As Putin Talks Energy Leverage In Beijing Summit

Xi Warns US Against New Iran Strikes, Denounces 'Law Of The Jungle', As Putin Talks Energy Leverage In Beijing Summit

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin for a high-stakes summit on Wednesday, just days after wrapping up closely watched talks with Trump, which by all accounts failed to produce any Washington-Beijing breakthroughs.

The optics were carefully engineered, and many international outlets observed Putin's state welcome was no less lavish and opulent than Trump's own, with the Russian leader entering Great Hall of the People with full military pomp, children waving flags, and the standard marching band - again, strikingly similar to the red-carpet treatment rolled out for Trump last week.

For example, Al Jazeera writes that "We were expecting a more low-key ceremony, but he actually received an identical welcome treatment as Trump last week." And more:

He had the red carpet rolled out for him; he received a 21-gun salute, as well as children waving Russian and Chinese flags, saying, ‘We warmly welcome you.’

The only difference is who greeted Putin at the airport. With Trump, it was Han Zheng, the vice president, and for Putin, it was Wang Yi, the foreign minister.

via Sputnik

President Xi in his opening remarks delivered a sharp critique of the current geopolitical landscape, warning that the world is at risk of regressing into the "law of the jungle" -  but hailed the Beijing-Moscow alliance as a crucial stabilizing force against what he later termed "all unilateral bullying" in the international arena, which appeared a passing jab at the United States. The very timing of the Putin summit has widely been viewed as a display of leverage.

Among key moments is that Xi called for "a comprehensive ceasefire" in the Middle East and the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He characterized the standoff situation in the Persian Gulf as a "critical juncture between war and peace." Xi called for the "unimpeded flow" of crude transit through the strait, as it is in "the common interest of the international community."

"My four-point proposal for maintaining and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East aims to further build international consensus and contribute to easing tensions, deescalating conflict, and promoting peace," Xi said on the Iran crisis according to state news outlet Xinhua. Noticeably absent, however, was mention of finding peace in Ukraine. They agreed that it was "necessary to address the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis."

As for Iran, Xi also explicitly noted that further hostilities in the Middle East were "inadvisable" and that a "comprehensive ceasefire is of utmost urgency." Putin during the summit sought to assure Beijing that Moscow remains a "reliable energy supplier" amid global oil supply shocks, noting their bilateral relationship sits at an"unprecedentedly high level."

He even at one point invoked a classical Chinese proverb to describe his relationship with Xi: "Even if we haven’t seen each other for a day, it feels like three autumns have passed."

Below are some quick highlights based on some emerging reporting Wednesday:

Treaty Extension: The signing of a wave of bilateral agreements across technology, trade, and intellectual property, anchored by the extension of the 25-year-old "China-Russia treaty of good neighborliness and friendly cooperation."

The Energy Lifeline: Putin countered by assuring Beijing that Moscow remains a "reliable energy supplier" amid global oil supply shocks, noting their bilateral relationship sits at an "unprecedentedly high level."

The Crude Lifeline: China remains critical in terms of an outside Russian economic lifeline, purchasing nearly 50% of Moscow's total oil exports as Western sanctions continue to squeeze Russia's domestic capital.

On potentially reviving a major stalled Russian gas pipeline project, CNBC wrote:

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Wednesday, with the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline on the agenda, as the Iran war disrupts energy supplies.

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said Tuesday that the project “will be discussed in great detail between the leaders.”

The planned 2,600-kilometer pipeline would carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from Russia’s Yamal fields to China via Mongolia. Moscow and Beijing signed a legally binding memorandum to advance construction in September 2025, but pricing, financing terms, and a delivery timeline remain unresolved.

Later this year, in November, both Presidents Trump and Putin could attend the APEC summit (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) on Chinese soil. 

via Bloomberg

The White House website hints at APEC summit attendance: "President Trump and President Xi agreed that the United States and China should build a constructive relationship of strategic stability on the basis of fairness and reciprocity. President Trump will welcome President Xi for a visit to Washington this fall. The two countries will support each other as the respective hosts of the G20 and APEC Summits later this year."

In the context of the Iran conflict Trump has lifted some oil sanctions on Russia, making its oil trade a key beneficiary of the US-Israel initiated war. "Russia has emerged as a primary beneficiary of the Middle East conflict due to the massive supply vacuum created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz," George Voloshin, an independent energy analyst based in Paris, has commented. "Global refiners are desperate for alternative medium-sour crudes, a need that Russia’s Urals grade specifically meets."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 10:05

The Building Blocks Of A Global Stagflationary Shock Are Falling Into Place

The Building Blocks Of A Global Stagflationary Shock Are Falling Into Place

By Peter de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

The Inflation Regime That Doesn't Fade

As we noted at the outset of the Gulf conflict, history rarely repeats – but it often rhymes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly revealing a familiar pattern: the building blocks of a global stagflationary shock are falling into place.

A closer look across inflation indicators in advanced economies shows a clear and consistent structure. The upstream impact has been immediate and forceful – exactly as expected in an energy-driven shock. The surge in oil and gas prices has translated into sharp increases in petroleum products such as diesel, and into key industrial inputs like sulphur and fertilisers. Producer price expectations – particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, base metals, and wood – have risen rapidly, in many cases outpacing the (initial) post-Covid surge. European industrial surveys point to strong repricing at the start of the production chain.

But further downstream, the picture is more nuanced, for now. While higher input costs are being passed through, the degree of transmission appears more muted than during the inflation surge of 2021–2022. Initial producer price data suggest that firms are adjusting prices, but not with the same breadth or intensity yet. Part of this may be timing – pass-through is always gradual – and whilst the gap between sharply rising price expectations and more modest realized price increases is notable, this could also point to more significant price hikes in the months ahead.

At the consumer level, the divergence is clearer. Inflation has responded, but the impulse remains concentrated in energy and energy-related components. Headline CPI prints have broadly matched expectations, and in some cases even surprised to the downside. Core inflation has remained contained. However, the same sort of slow transmission was seen during the initial phase of the 2021-2022 inflation surge, which, arguably, led policy makers to respond too slowly. So it’s too early to draw any firm conclusions and ‘transitory’ cannot be one of them, for now.

However, there is one crucial difference: the starting point for this shock is materially weaker demand. Labor markets have cooled in many places, albeit not to the same degree. US payrolls growth and job openings have slowed. In the Eurozone, labor market tightness indicators have eased (even as unemployment has stayed at cyclical lows). In the UK, unemployment has moved back to around 5%, vacancies have dropped to a five-year low, and wage growth continues to slow. As Stefan Koopman, our UK analyst, notes, these are not the conditions of an overheated economy requiring aggressive monetary tightening. Instead, they suggest increasing slack – an environment in which firms may struggle to fully pass on higher costs without sacrificing demand.

As a result, while energy prices are likely to push inflation higher in the coming months, the broader macro backdrop does not appear conducive to a sustained second-round inflation spiral. That said, central banks may still feel compelled to respond – more as a signal than out of necessity. In the UK, for instance, a symbolic rate hike cannot be ruled out, as policymakers seek to underscore their commitment to the inflation target, even if the case for a full tightening cycle remains weak.

Policy choices will be critical in shaping the trajectory from here. One of the defining lessons from the 2021–22 inflation episode is that policy responses can amplify shocks. The combination of large-scale fiscal support and ultra-loose monetary policy played a key role in transforming an initial supply shock into a broad-based and persistent inflation surge. Today, the policy environment is different – rates are higher, fiscal space is more constrained – but the uncertainty surrounding the duration of the Hormuz disruption complicates the outlook.

In that context, policymakers may be inclined to assume persistence rather than transience, if only as a precaution. Markets, for their part, have already moved in that direction. Bond yields have repriced sharply higher, particularly at the long end, tightening financial conditions globally. The US 10-year yield rose above 4.67% yesterday, the highest level since mid-January 2025. And although European yields were dragged higher as well, the spread of 10y Treasuries over German bunds has widened from 120bp on 13 April to nearly 150bp yesterday. The rise in US Treasury yields – alongside a widening spread over German Bunds – signals that investors are increasingly focused on both inflation persistence and fiscal sustainability.

This shift in market discipline is not going unnoticed. The IMF has urged Britain to “stay the [fiscal] course” in its ‘Article IV’ consultation. At this week’s G7 meeting, finance ministers and central bankers struck a notably cautious tone, emphasising that any policy support should remain temporary, targeted, and fiscally responsible. Compared to the sweeping interventions seen in recent crises, the response so far has been measured – arguably deliberately so.

Yet this restraint also exposes a tension. While targeted domestic support is relatively straightforward, meaningful international coordination is far more challenging. Countries face competing objectives: protecting domestic growth, ensuring economic security, and enhancing resilience. Measures such as export restrictions may serve national interests but risk undermining collective outcomes. In that sense, the G7’s commitment to cooperation may prove difficult to translate into concrete action.

This suggests a risk of fragile stagflation, with slowing growth alongside persistent inflation. The main danger is not runaway prices but policy errors and poor coordination amid ongoing geopolitical pressures. Much depends on the duration of the Hormuz disruption, as supply shocks may last longer than expected and blur the line between temporary and persistent inflation.

This may also be the reason why we see tentative signs that policymakers are beginning to look beyond purely economic tools. The economic consequences of the Hormuz closure are, after all, rooted in a geopolitical disruption. Discussions within NATO about potentially facilitating maritime passage through the strait underscore a growing recognition that resolving the supply shock itself may be the most effective form of policy response. Although there is no unanimous support yet, according to sources, as per Bloomberg reporting, the fact that NATO is reconsidering an (active) role was seen by investors as a positive development.

Meanwhile, after months of wrangling, the EU finalized the text on the US-EU trade deal, to be signed off by European Parliament and member states before Trump’s 4 July deadline. Reaching a compromise was driven by the overriding objective of “maintaining a stable, predictable and balanced transatlantic partnership”, as put by Cyprus’ minister of commerce. However, the text now includes a 2029 expiration date (unless both sides agree extension). It also includes a clause that would allow the Commission to suspend the deal if tariffs on products using steel and aluminium surpass 15% after 2026 and a ‘pause button’ should the US not keep with its commitments. So let’s see if the US wants to cooperate.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 09:50

AI Purge Accelerates: Intuit Reportedly Slashing 17% Of Workforce

AI Purge Accelerates: Intuit Reportedly Slashing 17% Of Workforce

Intuit, the company that owns TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp, is reportedly preparing to lay off a staggering 17% of its workforce according to Reuters, which cites an internal memo.

Details are scant at the moment regarding the reason for the layoffs, but CEO Sasan Goodarzi sent an email to staff earlier in the day, saying that reducing complexity and simplifying the structure would help it deliver better ​products, to streamline operations and sharpen focus ​on its key bets including its AI efforts.

The company has signed multi-year deals with AI startups Anthropic and ​OpenAI to integrate their AI models into its software and add Intuit's personalized tax, finance, ‌accounting and ⁠marketing capabilities into Claude and ChatGPT.

Bloomberg data shows Intuit's total workforce was around 18,200 in mid-2025. If those figures are still accurate, the layoffs could affect upwards of 3,000 employees.

As of Tuesday's close, Intuit shares were down nearly 40% on the year amid AI fears disrupting the software stocks.

Shares are down 2% in premarket trading.

Analysts are mostly bullish…

Related:

The last day for impacted staff at Intuit in the United States will be July 31 and they will receive 16 weeks of base pay and two extra weeks for every year at Intuit as part of ​the severance package, the ​memo on Wednesday ⁠showed.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 09:35

Trump Retains Dominant Influence: 4 Takeaways From Tuesday's Primary Elections

Trump Retains Dominant Influence: 4 Takeaways From Tuesday's Primary Elections

Authored by Joseph Lord, Jeff Louderback, Troy Myers, and Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times,

Voters on Tuesday headed to the polls in states across the country for some of the most-anticipated battles of the 2026 midterm election season.

May 19 marks the largest day of primary elections yet, seeing ballots cast across six states: Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

The night continued past trends showing that President Donald Trump retains a dominant influence over the Republican Party, as his chosen candidates sailed to victory in race after race—with one Republican incumbent in a major race being defeated.

Democrats, meanwhile, locked in their picks for several key congressional races, as the party works to reclaim the House and possibly the Senate.

Here are the biggest takeaways from the night.

Massie Unseated

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) lost his Republican primary to former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, concluding one of the most-watched (and most expensive) primary battles of the 2026 election cycle.

President Donald Trump had endorsed Gallrein as part of his effort to get Massie removed from Congress.

Trump was openly critical of Massie and urged people in Kentucky’s Fourth Congressional District to elect Gallrein.

Gallrein had tallied 54 percent of the votes compared to 45 percent for Massie when The Associated Press called the race at 7:54 p.m. ET.

Massie’s ousting is seen as underscoring Republican voters’ support for Trump.

The Kentucky lawmaker, who’s been at odds with Trump over several issues, joins Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and several Indiana state senators who were defeated by primary challengers backed by Trump in recent weeks.

Gallrein, in his victory speech, vowed to work closely with the president in Congress.

“We have a saying on the family farm that it’s a contact sport,” Gallrein said at an election night event in Covington, Kentucky. “I can tell you that campaigning is one as well, folks.”

Kentucky, Alabama Open Senate Primaries

In Kentucky and Alabama, voters went to the polls to cast ballots in open Senate primaries for seats being vacated by their incumbents.

Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) will face former Democratic state Rep. Charles Booker in the race to replace outgoing Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in the U.S. Senate.

The Associated Press called the Republican primary race for Barr at 7 p.m. ET, an hour after polls closed. Barr won with 60.5 percent of the vote to 30.8 percent for the next closest rival, former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

On the Democratic side, Booker—who previously served as Democrat’s nominee for the post in 2022—won with 46.8 percent of the vote. His closest rival, 2020 Democratic nominee Amy McGrath, trails with 35.8 percent of the vote. The race was called at 9:41 p.m. ET.

The primary marks the first time in 16 years that the state has seen a fully open race for a Kentucky Senate seat. The last such primary took place in 2010, when Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) won his first election to Congress.

McConnell, 84, was first elected to his seat in 1984. He had served as the leader of the Republican Senate conference since January 2007 before agreeing to step down at the start of the current Congress.

Meanwhile, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.), Trump’s pick to replace outgoing Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), will advance to a runoff, as he fell short of the 50 percent needed to forgo the second election.

The Republican he’ll face is still being determined as votes are counted.

Trump has called Moore “a true America First Patriot who’s been with me from the very beginning.”

Georgia Republican Races Go to Runoff

Voters in the Peach State sent Republican candidates in Georgia’s gubernatorial and Senate elections to a runoff.

Trump-endorsed Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and billionaire businessman Rick Jackson will go to a runoff in Georgia’s gubernatorial primary contest.

Jones and Jackson received 37 percent and 34 percent of the vote, respectively, when the Associated Press called the runoff at 8:50 p.m. ET, as neither managed to garner more than 50 percent of the vote in what became a costly contest for the GOP field.

Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger came in third with 14 percent of the vote.

Another competitive Georgia Republican contest is also on its way to a second round.

As of 9:50 p.m. ET on May 19, none of the major candidates in the state’s Senate GOP primary—Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), Rep. Earl “Buddy” Carter (R-Ga.), and former football coach Derek Dooley—had claimed more than 50 percent of the vote in the Senate primary.

At 9:44 p.m. ET, the Associated Press declared that Collins will advance to the runoff. It later declared that Dooley will face him in that race.

As of 11:52 p.m., Collins had received 40.5 percent of the vote. Dooley followed with 30.1 percent, while Carter trailed in third with 25.2 percent.

The runoff was expected ahead of Election Day, as polling generally did not show any candidate with a majority.

Bernadette Breslin, the national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), told The Epoch Times in an exclusive statement that “Republicans are united behind defeating Ossoff and retiring his record of failure for Georgia.”

Trump has not given an endorsement in the Senate race.

The runoff elections are set for June 16.

Pennsylvania Democrats Make Picks in Key Swing Districts

While observers’ focus was largely centered on Republican races during this round of voting, Democratic candidates were also locked in for several key swing districts during the May 19 elections.

It’s unclear whether Democrats can overcome Republicans’ steep 53-seat majority in the U.S. Senate, and the party is instead focusing its major efforts this cycle on the House, where Democrats are widely expected to reclaim the majority by observers.

In Pennsylvania, three Democratic candidates endorsed by Gov. Josh Shapiro won their elections, including Janelle Stelson, Bob Harvie, and Bob Brooks.

The three candidates will take on Republican opponents in the November general election, in seats that include some of the party’s top targets.

Stelson will go up against Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Harvie against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), and Brooks against Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.).

Shapiro himself is seeking reelection this year, running for the gubernatorial nomination unopposed. Shapiro’s approach to politics has been viewed as moderate by voters in the state, propelling him to a sweeping double-digit victory in his 2022 election, giving his endorsement some weight in state politics.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 09:05

NANO Nuclear's Reactor Construction Permit Accepted For Review

NANO Nuclear's Reactor Construction Permit Accepted For Review

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has formally begun its review of the construction permit application for an advanced microreactor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. 

The announcement marks the transition from the agency’s acceptance review to the substantive technical evaluation of NANO Nuclear’s KRONOS design.

This step carries more weight than the initial filing. Submitting an application demonstrates readiness on paper; the NRC’s decision to open a full review confirms the submission meets the threshold for detailed scrutiny

For a first-of-a-kind microreactor project, clearing that gate is a concrete regulatory advance.

We've tracked the Illinois project closely, including the construction permit application submission itself, described at the time as a defining moment for commercial microreactor deployment. Earlier coverage in October 2025 detailed the start of drilling and site preparation work with the university. 

We've also detailed other updates from the company including their recent MOU with Supermicro and progress with their high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) transportation package.

The KRONOS effort is also not occurring in isolation. Other advanced reactor programs have recorded measurable NRC milestones in recent months with TerraPower’s Natrium reactor in Wyoming receiving its construction permit and X-energy achieving a notable environmental clearance for its four-unit Xe-100 project at Dow’s Seadrift site in Texas.
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 08:35

A "Rubbish, Knee-Jerk Reaction": UK Treasury Pushes Food Price Caps As Inflation Re-Accelerates

A "Rubbish, Knee-Jerk Reaction": UK Treasury Pushes Food Price Caps As Inflation Re-Accelerates

UK supermarkets are being urged by the government to limit food prices in return for easing regulations.

As first reported by The Financial Times, the price caps are 'voluntary' and would apply to key groceries – such as eggs, bread, and milk - according to retail industry sources with knowledge of the plans.

In return, the government has said it would offer “incentives” to the supermarkets, which the people said could include easing packaging policies and potentially delaying costly changes to rules around healthy food.

As one may well expect, supermarkets are understood to be strongly opposed to the plans.

The Treasury has declined to comment.

The proposals come as Sir Keir Starmer’s government is battling to address public concern over the cost of living.

Scottish retailers recently condemned a similar policy by the Scottish National Party as a “1970s-style” gimmick.

One person close to a supermarket said the Treasury’s initiative was “a rubbish, knee-jerk reaction to the SNP”.

UK food inflation rose to 3.7 per cent in April, and the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, has warned the world is “sleepwalking into a global food crisis”, with the Middle East war throttling supply chains.

And in line with the magical thinking, the Treasury has also told supermarkets that it would like guarantees that British farmers would not lose income from shop price caps.

Former Brexit minister Lord Frost weighed in on social media platform X, calling the proposal "remarkable (and remarkably bad) if true.

"There are certainly plenty of people in this govt whose understanding of economics is so poor that they might consider it a good idea."

SNP leader John Swinney has defended his party's approach, arguing he faces a "public health responsibility" to ensure affordable nutrition for people "struggling to afford a very basic shop."

“It is a completely ill-thought-out, last-minute idea . . . The idea that the government can set price better than the market is for the birds,” one person familiar with the discussions told the FT.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:55

UK COVID Inquiry's Endorsement Of Censorship Sets Chilling Precedent

UK COVID Inquiry's Endorsement Of Censorship Sets Chilling Precedent

Authored by Molly Kingsley via DailySceptic.org,

According to the UK’s Covid Inquiry, whose fourth report was published in April, there was “in principle, nothing unlawful or inappropriate in the government monitoring publicly available social media to identify potential trends in disinformation or misinformation” during the pandemic period.

The same report, in declining to criticise the censorious activities of the UK Government during the pandemic, noted that the UK government’s Counter Disinformation Unit was required to ensure that its actions were “lawful, necessary and proportionate”.

On a careful reading of this language, the inquiry stops (just) short of expressly endorsing the full scope and extent of the government’s censorship operation.  However, the relevant sections of the inquiry’s report create the distinct, and we can assume deliberate, impression that the CDU’s censorship operation was conducted in accordance with constitutional and democratic principles, and was not only justified but was necessary and proportionate. 

As someone who was on the receiving end of that censorship operation, with the receipts to evidence the very broad scope of commentary that was judged by the CDU to be wrongful or dangerous, this came as a serious disappointment, albeit not a great surprise.

Some would argue that in a national emergency scenario, some degree of information monitoring and intervention might be justified.

The trouble with that argument is that one very quickly then has to grapple with the fact that – as we saw during the pandemic period – it’s precisely in moments of national crisis – moments where critical decisions must be made in complex situations – that contrasting views are most valuable and essential.

As Jay Bhattacharya, Acting Director of the US Centres for Disease Control, has put it: “Dissent is the very essence of science.”

In my own case, the offending posts and articles caught by the CDU were typically either opinion pieces or comments quoted in mainstream news articles. They included such outlandish and outrageous statements as, “It would be unforgivable to close schools”, “Let children use playgrounds” and “It is indefensible that children’s lives are still not back to normal when the rest of society is”. Clearly, many would now agree with these viewpoints. However, even if some, or indeed many might not have agreed with those points of view at the time, the fact that they were valid, lawfully-expressed opinions cannot be disputed.

Perhaps the CDU’s hypersensitivity would not have mattered so much if, as according to the Covid Inquiry’s account, all that was happening during that period was “monitoring” of public sentiment by the government. The inquiry’s report notes that the CDU had ‘trusted flagger’ status with all of the major social media platforms, the effect of which was that CDU flags received special attention; but the same report is at pains to record that decisions about removing or suppressing content “remained exclusively a decision for each social media platform”.

Yet a subsequent investigation by the Telegraph revealed that 90% of the posts referred to social media companies by the CDU were taken down. Indeed, evidence given to the inquiry by the former head of the CDU confirmed that when information was flagged by the CDU it “immediately goes to the top of the pile. Whoever it is in whatever company then acts on it. It is the same system they have across government for things like terrorist content.”

What makes this even worse is that the remit of the CDU went beyond anything that could reasonably be termed mis- or disinformation. In particular, we know in relation to Covid vaccine-related commentary – because a CDU official told a Parliamentary Select Committee in December 2020 – that each of the following categories of content was considered for flagging and removal as ‘anti-vaccine misinformation’:

  • commentary about the speed of the development of the Covid vaccines: “It is not safe, those kinds of narratives”;

  • commentary about side-effects from the Covid vaccines; and

  • commentary about “monetary and big business and links to pharma”, which seems to indicate that criticism of the pharma industry and its financial influence were off limits.

All of this is in sharp contrast to events on the other side of the pond. In May 2024, a US Congressional report observed in the context of its examination of the Biden administration’s pandemic censorship operations:

“By suppressing free speech and intentionally distorting public debate in the modern town square, ideas and policies were no longer fairly tested and debated on their merits. Instead, policymakers implemented a series of public health measures that proved to be disastrous for the country.”

Free debate is one of the key measures of the health of a democracy. Without it, we lose the ability to challenge and to stress test ideas. As we saw during the pandemic, it is often when speech is most controversial that the need to hear it is greatest.

In contrast with the US where a degree of candid investigation of core pandemic failings, especially concerning the suppression of speech and social media censorship, is now taking place, our own Covid Inquiry has completely side-stepped its duty to properly interrogate serious infringements of cornerstone rights and principles of public discourse. Given the investigations going on in the US and the fact that key reports have been public for close to two years, not only is this approach wilfully blind but it is an affront to the liberal democratic ideal of free speech. It sets an appalling precedent, whereby in future public health crisis (or potentially any crisis) we can now expect broad-in-scope monitoring and narrative control of lawful, and indeed essential, contrasting views to be the norm. And, it is disingenuous. At the same time that the inquiry has defended the patent overreach of the government’s censorship operation, it has completely ignored the flagrant, extensive and devastating mis- and disinformation propagated during that same period by pharmaceutical companies, government ministers and senior public health officials who were permitted and encouraged to make statements which were manifestly inflated, exaggerated, coercive or untrue.

Official statements overstating the safety and efficacy of the Covid vaccine programme, particularly when combined with coercive policies affecting children, are blatant examples of dangerous misinformation.

Each of the major vaccine manufacturers has now been found guilty by the UK regulator, many on repeated occasions, for the persistent overstating of benefit and understating of harm in relation to their Covid vaccine products. And yet the inquiry’s report is completely silent on this topic.

Unfortunately the end result, as predicted by many Daily Sceptic readers, is a shameful whitewash that will only further corrode trust in public health.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:30

Korean Bubble Mania: Retail Investors Max Out On Margin Debt, Choose To "Risk Complete Collapse" Than Miss Stock Rally

Korean Bubble Mania: Retail Investors Max Out On Margin Debt, Choose To "Risk Complete Collapse" Than Miss Stock Rally

For many years, Koreans were bitcoin's best friend.

After bitcoin emerged about a decade ago as the asset class with the most pronounced momentum - both to the upside and the downside - Korea's daytrading army, famous for being totally unable to do any fundamental valuation analysis but legendary for its wilnningness to piggyback on any momentum with suicidal leverage, became enamored with bitcoin and the result were face-ripping meltups and heartstopping crashes, a daily breathless rollercoaster where 10% moves in hours if not minutes had become the norm. 

But then, last September something snapped. After bitcoin had tracked Korea's Kospi index closely for years, the two series - formerly joined at the hips for years - diverged and went their separate ways, the Kospi soaring to never before seen levels, while bitcoin stagnated, shrinking ever lower as its former momentum-addicted traders abandoned it for something shinier, and with much more momentum: memory stocks.

As shown in the chart below, the Kospi-Bitcoin divergence started right around the time last September when memory stocks like Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix began what would be an absolutely historic meltup for the ages (if not so much for bitcoin). 

And while we had previously showed our readers a behind the scenes peeks into Korea's crypto trading culture, nothing prepared us for what is taking place right now... because what is taking place is nothing short of absolute batshit insanity.

Consider this: a single post uploaded May 8 by a Korean civil servant on Blind, the anonymous workplace community app, quickly set off a frenzy online. The post included a screenshot of his brokerage account showing he had poured a staggering 2.3 billion won ($1.7 million) into shares of semiconductor giant SK Hynix, one of the key driving forces behind Korea’s roaring stock market.

But even more striking is that the 1.7 billion won of that investment was financed through margin loans borrowed from his brokerage!

“I believe the semiconductor market will continue its upward climb through 2028, but I’m taking a more aggressive approach to grow my assets faster,” he wrote. Four days later, on May 12, he returned with an update claiming he had already locked in 267 million won in profits.

That same day, another Blind post surfaced - this time from a Seoul Metro employee in her 20s, who wrote that rather than missing out on the rally, she would “risk complete collapse,” adding that she had used 150 percent margin financing to fully leverage into stocks.

As Korea’s bull market barrels ahead, the Korea Times writes that more momentum-addicted retail investors are turning to borrowed money to magnify returns, despite huge risks of losing more than 100% of one's capital. As of Friday, outstanding margin loans used for stock purchases had ballooned to a record 36.47 trillion won, according to the Korea Financial Investment Association.

While retail investors end up with all the risk, for Korea’s securities firms, the recent retail mania and associated borrowing boom has become a lucrative windfall.

According to recent industry data, the nation’s 10 largest brokerages - Korea Investment & Securities, Mirae Asset, Samsung, Kiwoom, NH, KB, Shinhan, Hana, Meritz and Daishin - generated a combined 600 billion won in interest income from margin lending in the first quarter of this year, up 55.9% from a year earlier.

Margin loans allow investors to borrow money from brokerages to buy stocks by pledging existing assets as collateral. While this can amplify gains, it also comes with annual interest rates ranging from 7 to 9%, and if share prices fall too sharply, brokerages force-sell holdings to recover their loans.

For now, bullish sentiment shows few signs of cooling: with the benchmark KOSPI climbing from the 4,000 range late last year to surpass the historic 8,000 mark in less than half a year, many retail investors appear willing to embrace higher-risk strategies in pursuit of faster gains, similar to what happened in China during the 2015 bubble when margin debt hit daily record highs. 

Up 75% this year, the quick ascent of South Korea’s Kospi Index has largely been driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which accounted for more than two-thirds of the advance. The surge reflects record profits at the chipmakers, and with valuations still below regional and global peers, some investors argue the rally lacks the excesses typical of past boom-and-bust cycles.

Wall Street, of course, is more than eager to encourage reckless risk taking: in a May 10 report, JP Morgan raised its base-case KOSPI target to 9,000, with a bull-case projection of 10,000, arguing that investors should “stay positioned for further upside and not preemptively anticipate a cycle-end.”

The investment bank pointed to a “higher for longer” memory chip upcycle, fueled in large part by sustained artificial intelligence-driven demand, while also identifying brokers, insurers, holding companies and dividend-heavy sectors as major beneficiaries of the country’s broader market transformation.

Not everyone agrees.

For one, signs of froth are literally everywhere one looks. Key market measures showing uneven earnings growth, rising volatility and record margin debt are beginning to give some investors pause. “This is a party you want to enjoy while staying near the exit,” said Mo Young, a portfolio manager at RootN Global Investors in Seoul. The problem with this is that everyone thinks they can sell before everyone else does. That "strategy" always ends in tears. 

Just like in the US, Korea's market breadth shows that the rally remains highly concentrated. Just 33% of benchmark stocks are now trading above their 50-day average, down from 70% three weeks ago. Meanwhile, 2% of members - mostly memory and chip stocks - are hitting new 52-week high despite the Kospi’s successive records, which underscores the narrowness of the gains.

“In other words, buying the index is not simply buying a diversified slice of Korea; it is increasingly a concentrated bet on memory semiconductors,” said Christian Heck, a New York-based portfolio manager at First Eagle Investment Management. 

“The index itself is no longer obviously cheap, and broad exposure requires underwriting a very large semiconductor-cycle bet,” he added. “Selectivity is essential.” 

Palvir Bahia, a fund manager at Polar Capital which manages $40.5 billion said his fund is "monitoring the rising margin debt closely as the market rally has led to an increase in margin debt which heightens market volatility, particularly on down days when retail investors are forced to sell in order to maintain account balances.” 

The risk of forced retail liquidations has dragged in the chief of the country's financial watchdog who expressed concerns that retail investors could suffer losses amid increased market volatility, according to the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) on Tuesday.

During a meeting on consumer risk response a day earlier, FSS governor Lee Chan-jin said retail investors could increasingly pivot toward highly volatile, risky assets as the country is set to introduce single-stock leveraged, or inverse, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) next week.

And just in case record margin debt and historic call buying wasn't enough, the watchdog warned that the introduction of single-stock leveraged ETFs could further accelerate capital flights to high-risk financial products. Because that's just what Korea's stock bubble needs. 

A bubble which may burst any minute since cracks are starting to show in the index itself.

The Kospi dropped nearly 5% on Tuesday, the worst performer across Asia, as chip stocks tracked US peers lower amid rising bond yields. The index is now testing the ultra-steep trend line, with the 21-day moving average sitting just below current levels. As Market Ear notes, "these are short-term make-or-break levels for the AI melt-up."

 

As we have observed previously, the Kospi is basically two memory stocks, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which is why the Kospi is basically the SOX on steroids.

With everyone ignoring stocks and plowing their margin debt right into calls for leverage upon leverage, the Kospi VIX is now a broken market. The spot-up, vol-up regime which signals a "melt-up" phase driven by FOMO and extreme positioning, has been unlike anything seen before, resulting in many investors dismissing buying protection due to stratospheric vols. First, the VIX soared as stocks surged (due to call buying); now vol stays high as the KOSPI sells off. Vols at these levels are pricing around 4.5% daily index moves going forward! That's not just extreme, that's batshit insane, and virtually guarantees that all levered investors will be wiped out unless they have tons of available cash balances to absorb margin calls, which they don't. 

With Samsung and SK Hynix posting record profits, signs of froth are also  emerging in smaller stocks where earnings growth is virtually non-existant. Non-tech firms have driven just 4% of the 12-month earnings gain since September, according to William Bratton, head of cash equities research for APAC at BNP Paribas.

Valuations are particularly stretched in materials sectors, which include electric-vehicle firms, trading at nearly 60 times forward earnings. Battery maker Posco Future M Co. stands out at over 300 times, despite carrying the highest number of sell ratings on the Kospi, Bloomberg data shows.

“If there is a meaningful slowdown of inflow from retail investors or systematic traders, or if hedge funds reduce their big positions that were most profitable, the market structure could become even more fragile,” Kim added.  

And it's about to get much more fragile: as Goldman notes, foreigners have net sold the Kospi for the 9th consecutive day (and have been aggressively selling for much of 2026) with today's latest selling focused in Tech (-$3.4bn). And while local institutions were net sellers for most part of the day, they closed as small net buyers with buying concentrated in Tech (+$168mn). Meanwhile, the willing target of everyone else's distribution, retail investors, have continued to be net buyers and absorbed all of the supply from foreigners... the same retail investors who are now levered to the gills and are out of funds, so they are buying with the bank's money. 

As we pointed out a week ago, hedging Korea, and partly the broader AI mania, via EWY looked interesting. The last major upside overshoot at the start of the Iran war, eventually mean-reverted all the way back toward the 50 day moving average. Having previously outlined the EWY put spread logic, with the unwind starting to accelerate again, it's time to start thinking about rolling strikes lower to keep max optionality.

KOSPI may be turning from the leader of the AI melt-up into the market’s most important stress signal, and when it blows, millions of levered retail investors will lose everything they own, and more thanks to the magic of leverage. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:15

Global Rush For "Non-Red" Suicide Drones Begins As Taiwan Sees Booming Orders

Global Rush For "Non-Red" Suicide Drones Begins As Taiwan Sees Booming Orders

Four years of war in Ukraine have rewritten how warfare is fought, accelerating the urgent need for low-cost aerial unmanned systems and ground robots. It has also prompted Taiwan to emerge as a supplier of low-cost suicide drones.

Taiwan's national news agency, the Central News Agency, reported that a Taichung-based Taiwanese drone manufacturer is now focused on producing a domestically made variant of Iran's Shahed one-way attack drone.

CNA said Carbon-Based Technology's main exports are "triangular-wing drones with a control range of over 90 km, and catapult-launched small attack drones."

CNA noted that demand for these attack drones is soaring, with "plans to expand the factory three to five times." The company is facing "production capacity" constraints due to surging orders.

"The payload can be adjusted according to mission requirements, conforming to the current global military 'asymmetric warfare' trend," CNA stated, describing CBT's suicide drones.

CNA noted, "The Russia-Ukraine war sparked a global surge in demand for "non-red" (non-Chinese) drones. This, combined with Taiwan government support, brought rapid overseas interest and orders from countries including Japan, India, and Southeast Asia." 

The acceleration of suicide drone production also comes as the possibility of a Chinese invasion remains a very real threat, drawing heavily from lessons learned in Ukraine.

The broader takeaway is that Taiwan views drone manufacturing as both a national security capability and an industrial policy to supply Western militaries.

As we have outlined before, militaries around the world are entering a major procurement cycle to stockpile low-cost one-way attack drones, as lessons from Ukraine and the Gulf region rapidly reshape modern warfare.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 05:45

Starmer Hit With Legal Threat After Barring Conservative Speakers From Entering UK For National Rally

Starmer Hit With Legal Threat After Barring Conservative Speakers From Entering UK For National Rally

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been issued with a formal letter of claim after several foreign politicians, commentators, and activists were blocked from entering the United Kingdom ahead of a major rally in London last weekend.

The legal threat was announced over the weekend by Dutch commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek, who said she and others had instructed a lawyer to act on their behalf over potentially defamatory remarks made by the prime minister last week.

“Today, Dominik Tarczyński, Don Keith, Ada Lluch, Joey Mannarino, and I have formally instructed our lawyer, Francesco Gargallo di Castel Lentini, to issue a Letter of Claim to Keir Starmer,” Vlaardingerbroek wrote on X. The lawyer mentioned is Vlaardingerbroek’s Italian husband.

“The letter demands that he immediately retract his defamatory statements in which he labelled us ‘far-right agitators’ who wish to incite violence.

“Should he fail to comply, we reserve all our legal rights to pursue further action against him.”

The dispute follows a speech delivered by Starmer last Monday in which he said his government had barred what he described as “far-right agitators” from entering Britain to attend the Unite the Kingdom march organized by Tommy Robinson.

The demonstration took place in London on Saturday. Ahead of the event, those named in the letter received notices from the Home Office informing them that their U.K. Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) had been cancelled. The message stated that their presence in Britain was not considered “conducive to the public good.”

Among those affected was Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński, a conservative politician and outspoken opponent of mass migration.

“This is what communism looks like in the 21st Century. I have just been denied entry to the U.K. in order to speak at the largest patriotic event in Europe,” Tarczyński wrote on social media after being refused entry.

In total, 11 people were reportedly banned from entering the U.K. to attend the rally. They included American nationals, Don Keith and Joey Mannarino, and Spanish conservative influencer Ada Lluch.

Mannarino wrote in response, “None of us want to incite violence. None of us are agitators. We are simply people who want to see Europe remain Europe, the U.K. remain the U.K., America remain America, and so on.”

The letter of claim, dated May 13, was addressed to Starmer at 10 Downing Street and described the prime minister’s remarks as “potentially defamatory, untrue and denigratory.” It said the statements had been made against private citizens, parliamentarians, and lawyers, and demanded a formal retraction.

The row also comes amid broader warnings issued ahead of those attending the London protest. The Metropolitan Police cautioned that certain placards and chants could amount to hate crimes and lead to prosecution.

Those warnings followed new guidance from the Crown Prosecution Service on acts that may be treated as stirring up hatred.

Director of Public Prosecutions Stephen Parkinson defended the guidance, saying, “This is not about restricting free speech. It is about preventing hate crime and protecting the public, particularly at a time of heightened tensions.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 05:00

South African Farming Crisis May Trigger Food Shortages Across The Continent

South African Farming Crisis May Trigger Food Shortages Across The Continent

For decades South Africa has operated as the breadbasket for half of the African continent, and the vast majority of that food was grown by white farmers (Boers and Afrikaners).  In other words, the very survival of Africans has long been dependent on the hard labor of the white people they are taught to despise.

South Africa has around 142 race-based laws which largely discriminate against white citizens, especially when property, business and government office is involved.  The Expropriation Act of 2024 allows the socialist government to confiscate any land of their choosing to "redress past discriminatory laws or practices" (land owned by white citizens).  This is part of a project to "fulfill land reform goals" (transfer wealth and farming operations to black citizens). 

The problem is, when land is seized or forced into sale to black owners, farming production reportedly collapses.  That is to say, once the white farmers are gone, crop yields fail and the black owners often resell the land and leave.  In other cases, the new owners allow the land to languish, using the homes for living but never cultivating the surrounding property. 

Black South Africans own more farmland per capita than French, German and Spanish farmers combined, yet, starvation persists in the region.  Excuses as to why this is happening persist, but the fact remains that if Africa wants steady food production, they will have to rely on experienced white Afrikaners to make it happen because no one else is going to do it.

Furthermore, the government's failure to maintain basic infrastructure has forced local farmers to take on the costs in order to keep food production on track and the roads ready for freight.  

The pressure from government projects for "reparations" as well as the constant threat of violence from militant race communists targeting white farmers has made the job difficult.  Now, shortages of diesel and fertilizers caused by the Iran War are creating a perfect storm of circumstances which may cause a food crisis going into 2027.  If the shortages are not rectified, half of the African continent will be throttled by a lack domestic food supplies. 

The war is, apparently, the straw that's breaking the camel's back.  After years of the South African government sabotaging its most productive citizens and replacing them with less useful farmers, it was only a matter of time before a Black Swan event would lead to collapse.

Iran's refusal to allow safe passage of tankers from countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is, interestingly, hurting BRICS nations far more than it is hurting the US or the west.  Around 25% of South Africa's oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz.  South Africa also imports around 80% of its fertilizer supplies.

The US blockade is only targeted at ships coming from Iranian ports with Iranian oil.  All other ships are allowed to pass. 

For now, the region is relatively safe from food shortages due to an unusually solid harvest in 2025, but 2027 looms and predictions are up in the air as to what will happen.  Once a planting season has passed, there is no way to make up the loss.  Foreign imports of food would be the obvious solution, but it's a costly one.  Meaning, price inflation is likely for most of Africa in 2027 and government rationing is a possibility. 

The end result will undoubtedly be blamed on the closure of the Hormuz, but South Africa's progressive policies set the stage and created the house of cards that is Africa's food supply chain.  They are completely unprepared for any significant supply shocks, and the result could be disastrous.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 04:15

UK Schools Push Radical Race Doctrine On Kids, Claiming Black People 'Cannot Be Racist'

UK Schools Push Radical Race Doctrine On Kids, Claiming Black People 'Cannot Be Racist'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Schools in the north of England are teaching pupils that black people cannot be racist towards white people.

According to materials adopted by a group of Sheffield schools, led by Notre Dame High School, teenagers are explicitly told: “Black people can be racially prejudiced towards a white person which is wrong and totally unacceptable. However, this is not racism. Racism is racial prejudice plus power. In the UK, white people hold the cultural power.”

For children as young as 7, lessons focus on “empathy building” around “privilege,” asserting that white people are “likely to be privileged by the colour of their skin” and have a “responsibility” to reduce racism by monitoring their language, challenging friends, and reporting incidents.

Handouts for older pupils push narratives on criminal justice, claiming black people are disproportionately targeted by police due to racism, with questions guiding students toward that conclusion.

The scheme aims to “interrupt systemic racism” and promote “strong social justice values,” according to its creators.

Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott slammed the materials, noting “It is deeply alarming that children as young as seven are being exposed to divisive identity politics in schools under the banner of ‘anti-racism education’… Labelling children by race and teaching them to focus on what divides them will only foster resentment and deepen division.”

Shadow minister Neil O’Brien called it “political indoctrination” and vowed to tackle such content.

These latest examples highlight a disturbing pattern in UK education: grooming children with critical race theory concepts, framing whiteness as inherently privileged and problematic, while shielding certain groups from accountability and cracking down on any dissent.

This comes as nurseries in Wales, funded by over £1.3 million in taxpayer money, have been urged to report “racist” incidents involving toddlers to police, turning playgrounds into surveillance hubs for the state’s anti-racism agenda.

Childcare workers are being trained to spot and log “racist incidents” by children barely out of nappies, with instructions to contact police via 999 or 101 if it could amount to a hate crime.

Funded by the Welsh Government and pushed by Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning (DARPL) at Cardiff Metropolitan University, the program covers over 300 nurseries, playgroups, and childminders. It demands audits of resources for “diversity” and discussions of skin colour with toddlers to create “anti-racist” environments from the cradle.

Critics rightly point out that toddlers lack the cognitive ability to be racist, yet the state treats them as potential thought criminals.

UK schools have also pushed books telling children “there’s plenty of room” for small boat migrants, framing mass illegal immigration as something positive and inevitable.

The Green Party has also floated such extreme proposals for what to teach children, while the government urges schools to snitch on “anti-Muslim hostility” in an Orwellian surveillance push.

Counter-terror police have warned teens that sharing “funny content” could be terrorism, and a taxpayer-funded video game literally flags kids questioning mass migration as potential extremists.

Parents of a child who questioned why he had to celebrate Ramadan in school when he is not a Muslim were sent a letter informing them of the ‘racist’ incident.

British children are being conditioned to view their own heritage and skin colour as sources of guilt, accept open borders and cultural replacement without question, and self-censor any pushback—or face reports, labels, and potential police involvement.

This is not education. It is state-sponsored division and thought control, bankrolled by taxpayers under a Labour government disconnected from reality.

Parents are waking up to the grooming, and the pushback is growing. Childhood must be reclaimed from ideologues before an entire generation is lost to this divisive nonsense. Freedom of thought and equal standards for all—not racial power games—should define British values.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 03:30

NATO Scrambles Jet, Shoots Down Ukrainian Drone Over Estonia, In War First

NATO Scrambles Jet, Shoots Down Ukrainian Drone Over Estonia, In War First

It's being widely reported as a major "first" of the war: a NATO fighter has jet shot down what is believed to have been a stray Ukrainian drone over a Baltic country.

The incident happened over southern Estonia on Tuesday, resulting in a regular NATO patrolling unit being forces to urgently scramble a pair of F-16 fighter jets in response. After the shoot-down, Ukraine owned up to it by issuing public apology.

via Associated Press, file image

Kiev called it an "unintended incident" - but then also suggested Russia caused it by diverting the drone's path through electronic warfare

"We apologize to Estonia and all our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents," a Ukrainian government statement said. "We have been and remain in close cooperation through our specialized institutions to get to the heart of the matter in each case and seek ways to prevent them, including through the direct engagement of our expert groups."

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry then deflected, calling attention to Russian actions: "Moscow does this on purpose, together with intensified propaganda," it said.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur had earlier described that the drone's trajectory left the military with no choice: "we decided that we needed to take it down," he had earlier announced.

"Most probably, today we can say that it was a drone that was, let’s say, meant to hit Russian targets," he conceded, appearing to accept Ukraine's explanation. According to further details:

A Romanian F-16 Nato jet shot down a drone over Estonia on Tuesday in what appears to be the latest case of Russian electronic jamming diverting long-range Ukrainian drones into the alliance’s territory.

A local resident told the Estonian public broadcaster, ERR, that he had seen two fighter jets – part of a Nato force policing the skies over the Baltic states – flying in the area before a loud bang that brought the drone down. He said the drone had crashed about 30 metres from the nearest residential building.

Moscow, for its part, has been warning Baltic countries against allowing Ukraine to launch drones from their territories, or to allow their airspace to be used for such hostile attacks.

For example, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has freshly called out Latvia: "The primitive Russophobia of Latvia’s current rulers proved stronger than their capacity for critical thinking or their sense of self-preservation," it said in a Tuesday statement. 

However, Ukraine as well as Baltic officials have slammed the Kremlin statements as part of "yet another disinformation campaign."

The whole incident is unusual given that typically NATO jets scramble in response to Russian drones. But here we have an ally vs. ally drone shootdown, and happening in airspace which is deemed NATO's domain.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 02:45

Nearly Half Of French Voters May Support National Rally, And Immigration Is A Major Concern

Nearly Half Of French Voters May Support National Rally, And Immigration Is A Major Concern

Via Remix News,

Last Friday, an Ipsos poll conducted for the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, Le Monde, and Cevipof indicated that 45 percent of French voters are now considering voting for the National Rally (RN) in the 2027 elections, meaning the anti-migration party’s candidate is favored to win the presidency.

According to Antoine Bristielle, director of the Foundation’s Opinion Observatory, the poll shows that RN “has managed to unite very different electorates around a common foundation, but that its cohesion remains fragile as soon as one moves away from this foundation.”

The Jean-Jaurès Foundation identifies four main profiles of RN voters, which can be grouped into two categories.

The “identity-based liberals” include older, politically engaged voters firmly rooted in the right, as well as the “forgotten France,” which represents “a working-class bloc, more economically vulnerable, marked by a strong sense of abandonment and combining demands for social protection with identity radicalism.”

However, the other two groups are more recent profiles, demonstrating the RN’s expansion to new voters.

The “shifting France,” representing those “less politically engaged and still uncertain,” and the “opportunistic radical right.”

This latter group of voters, seen as “more affluent, more educated, and highly politically engaged,” is, according to the report, “already largely aligned with the RN’s positions” but may have voted for other right-wing parties in the past.

Immigration, as expected, is a paramount topic for at least three of the four groups.

“There are too many immigrants in France” is confirmed by 97 percent of “forgotten France,” 99 percent of “identity-based liberals,” 43 percent of “shifting France,” and 96 percent of “opportunistic radical right.”

As to the statement, “Now, I no longer feel as at home as before,” the percentages of support were 96, 98, 72, and 94, respectively.

The full study is available here.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 02:00

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