Stock Futures Slide As Doubts Over Ceasefire Send Oil Higher

Stocks resumed their drop and oil erased about a third of its Wednesday drop as traders watched the fragile US-Iran ceasefire shatter by the hour, with both sides accusing the other of breaches while the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed and Israel intensified strikes on Lebanon. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures fell 0.4% after Bloomberg strategists said a best-case scenario has already been priced in;  Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% with Mag7 stocks mostly lower. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell 0.7%. Emerging-market stocks slid almost 1%. The dollar ticked higher even as 10Y US YST yields dropped about 1bp; equivalent UK yields rose six basis points after tumbling almost 20 basis points on Wednesday. Brent crude jumped back to $98 a barrel on signs the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. US economic data calendar includes February personal income/spending (with PCE price index), weekly jobless claims and third estimate of 4Q GDP (8:30am) and February wholesale trade sales and inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate is blank until April 14.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon +0.8%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -0.7%, Meta Platforms +1%, Microsoft -0.1%, -0.3%)

• Applied Digital (APLD) falls 1% after the data center operator’s third-quarter gross margins missed the average analyst estimate.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) rises 6% after the cloud-computing provider reported an expanded long-term agreement with Meta to provide AI cloud capacity through December 2032 for ~$21 billion.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) rises 2% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight, citing demand for optical products.
• Instacart (CART) climbs 2% as Raymond James upgrades to outperform, calling the grocery segment an under-penetrated e-commerce market.
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL) falls 16% after the packaged-food firm forecast year net sales will be down as much as 10%.
• STAAR Surgical (STAA) rises 23% after the health-care supplies firm said it expects net sales for the first quarter to exceed $90 million, up from $42.6 million in the year ago period. The estimate surpassed Wall Street’s expectations.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) gains 1.6% after Stifel upgraded the stock to buy, citing “multiple tailwinds” that should support the semiconductor firm’s outlook.
• Whitestone REIT (WSR) shares rise 11% after the retail-focused real estate investment trust company entered into a definitive merger agreement with Ares Real Estate funds to be acquired for $19 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at about $1.7 billion.

In AI, Anthropic employees sold some equity to investors, wrapping up a secondary share sale that started earlier this year. Meta shares are up in premarket trading, with analysts generally positive on the AI model it showed on Wednesday. PIMCO is said to be looking to sell a portion of the $14 billion of debt financing it’s providing for a massive Oracle data center in Michigan. In other corporate news, the WSJ reported that Disney is preparing to make sizable layoffs in one of the first significant moves under its new CEO. Seven & i Holdings will delay a public listing of its US convenience-store business planned for later this year. 

Markets have given up some of the big moves seen Wednesday when optimism around the deal for a two-week pause in fighting spurred a relief rally. Continued fighting in the Middle East, punctuated by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, threatened to derail the fragile ceasefire deal. Iran and the US-Israeli side appeared to disagree over whether the ceasefire covers Lebanon. Yet despite the escalating rhetoric, the ceasefire was largely holding on Thursday, with a decline in attacks across Arab states in the Persian Gulf.

“There’s a fair amount of skepticism in the market about the ceasefire and the upcoming negotiations,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital. “The big question is what state the global economy will be in after the crisis.”

Overnight, Trump pledged to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran; the first round of direct negotiations is scheduled for Saturday morning in Islamabad. Meanwhile, Goldman predicted that Brent is set to average more than $100 a barrel right through 2026 if the strait remains closed for another month. 

Much of Wednesday’s move was driven by short-covering and a return to normal positioning: According to Goldman’s trading desk, hedge funds rushed to close out bets against US stocks at a pace not seen since March 2020. The ceasefire, along with upcoming earnings driving up the potential for idiosyncratic moves across equities, may mean “downward pressure on implied correlations,” according to Citi option strategists.

Even if weekend talks lead to a more permanent peace, the effects of the war will rumble on. Earnings expectations will need to be tempered because of the inflationary fallout from the war, according to BlackRock’s Helen Jewell. And in central banks, a former executive director at the Bank of Japan said the BOJ is likely to increase its benchmark rate this month to avoid falling behind on controlling inflation. Fed policymakers will get the latest reading of their preferred inflation indicator, core PCE, later, ahead of CPI data on Friday. The latter, covering March, is likely to be more interesting as it will begin to reflect the Middle East conflict.

In politics, the Justice Department’s top antitrust litigator and three senior trial attorneys are leaving the agency, according to people familiar. The US is said to consider lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s battered economy.

Turning to the start of earnings season next week, expectations will need to be tempered due to the inflationary fallout from the war, BlackRock Inc.’s Helen Jewell said.  “If you look at earnings forecasts at the moment for the year, they’re still well into double digits — 15, 16, 17, 18%,” said Jewell, who is international chief investment officer for fundamental equities at the world’s largest asset manager. “There’s a lot of headroom for the earnings to come down a little bit.” 

On Thursday, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation will offer a snapshot of pre-war price pressures. Economists see the so-called core personal consumption expenditures — PCE — price index, which excludes food and energy, having risen by 0.4% for a third month in February, suggesting progress toward tamer inflation was stalling even before the conflict.

Europe's stocks followed their Asian counterparts lower, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.7% after its best day since March 2022 on Wednesday. US equity futures also drop. Oil stocks advanced along with Brent crude. Many of yesterday’s laggards in the oil sector are today’s biggest gainers, including Var Energi, Equinor, BP and TotalEnergies. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• ITM Power shares climb as much as 17%, the most in 10 months, after the UK government pledged to invest around £87 million in the clean energy company to drive a build out of its hydrogen technology manufacturing facility
• Rexel shares climb as much as 4.1% after analysts at Jefferies raise the French electrical supplies firm to buy from hold, saying it is well positioned to outpace its guidance thanks to higher prices and growth drivers
• Technip Energies shares rise as much as 4.1% to the highest level since September after the engineering firm was awarded a contract to improve the Long Son Petrochemicals complex in Vietnam
• Vallourec rises as much as 5.2% after announcing a five-year supply agreement with Fervo Energy worth up to $800 million, which CIC Markets says “demonstrates the effectiveness” of the firm’s New Energies segment strategy
• AG Barr rises as much as 4.7% after Bank of America initiates coverage of the UK soft drinks manufacturer with a buy rating and a street-high 850p price target. BofA cites growth potential for IRN-BRU
• DCC shares rise as much as 4.1% after analysts at BNP Paribas raise their rating to outperform from neutral on the energy seller’s current valuation and the positive impact of energy prices
• Melia Hotels shares rise as much as 3.9%, to the highest level since Sept. 2018, as Kepler Cheuvreux raises its recommendation on the Spanish hotel operator to hold from reduce
• Abivax shares rise as much as 3.8% after Oddo BHF lifted its price target on the French biotech company, saying Crohn’s disease could represent a bigger commercial opportunity than ulcerative colitis
• Alstom falls 7.2%, the most in ten months, after the French trainmaker flags currency headwinds in an earnings preview. JPMorgan (overweight) lowers estimates on FX headwinds
• Man Group shares trade as much as 7.7% below their last closing price, only partly due to trading without rights to the next dividend. Deutsche Bank analysts cut their earnings estimates and price target ahead of 1Q results
• Netcompany shares fall as much as 6.5%, the most in two months, after ABG Sundal Collier cut its recommendation on the Danish IT consultancy to hold from buy, seeing a “less compelling” risk/reward after a strong run for the shares
• Grieg Seafood falls as much as 7.9%, the most since last May, after the Norwegian seafood and salmon company’s preliminary first-quarter earnings disappointed, leading DNB Carnegie to cut 2026 EPS estimates by 12%

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks retreated as oil prices rose again and sporadic fighting in the Middle East cast doubts over the implementation of the two-week US-Iran ceasefire deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1%, with South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix the biggest drags. Most national benchmarks in the region traded lower, with the Kospi being the biggest loser followed by India’s Nifty 50. Asia’s stock benchmark jumped 5% in the previous session, the most in about a year, as global risk assets rallied on optimism over the ceasefire deal. It is up more than 8% so far in 2026.

“Headline risk remains elevated,” according to Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com. “Markets aren’t necessarily out of the woods yet. There are several variables that could upend market sentiment.”

In rates, treasury yields are slightly lower, down 1bp to 4.29% and slightly richer across the curve after plying small ranges during Asia session and London morning; equivalent UK yields rose six basis points after tumbling almost 20 basis points on Wednesday. US yields are as much as 1.5bp lower led by intermediate sectors, steepening 5s30s curve by around 1bp. 10-year is down about 1bp near 4.28% with European counterparts 3bp-6bp higher on the day. European yields are broadly higher with oil prices as Strait of Hormuz traffic remains blocked: UK and German 10-year yields rise 7 bps and 4 bps respectively. US session includes PCE price gauges for February, several other US economic indicators and 30-year bond auction. Treasury’s $22 billion 30-year bond reopening has WI yield near 4.88%, about 1bp higher than result of last month’s auction, which stopped through by 0.7bp; Wednesday’s 10-year reopening tailed by 0.2bp after rallying into the bid deadline.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inches higher. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. Gold edges up while Bitcoin is flat.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up more than 5% near session highs, erasing about a third of Wednesday’s 16.4% drop; Brent crude futures rise 4% to above $98 after a more than 13% plunge to under $95 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. Two fully laden Chinese oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were approaching the Strait, potentially putting them on track to become the first such vessels to cross since the ceasefire was announced.  European natural gas futures climb 2%.

US economic data calendar includes February personal income/spending (with PCE price index), weekly jobless claims and third estimate of 4Q GDP (8:30am) and February wholesale trade sales and inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate is blank until April 14.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%, Nasdaq 100 mini -0.3%, Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%, DAX -1.2%, CAC 40 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.29%
• VIX +0.4 points at 21.39
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1202.1, euro +0.1% at $1.1678
• WTI crude +3.1% at $97.38/barrel

Top Overnight News

• JD Vance will head the U.S. negotiating team for the peace talks with Iran on Saturday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday. Axios
• Even as the U.S. and Iran seek to cement a ceasefire, Israel is seizing more territory from its neighbors in preparation for a long, drawn-out conflict across the Middle East. Israel's creation of "buffer zones" in Gaza, Syria and now Lebanon reflects a strategic shift after the attacks of October 7, 2023, one that puts the country in a semi-permanent state of war. RTRS
• Vance said Wednesday Israel has proposed to restrain itself when it comes to strikes in Lebanon as long as the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are taking place. Axios
• The White House is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that President Trump thinks were unhelpful to the U.S. and Israel during the Iran war, according to administration officials. The proposal would involve moving U.S. troops out of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and stationing them in countries that were more supportive. WSJ
• EU will still be hit by a “stagflationary shock” of low growth and rising inflation despite the US and Iran agreeing a two-week ceasefire, the bloc’s top economic official has warned. FT
• BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan’s finance conditions remain accommodative, with the level of real rates clearly below zero. BBG
• The US is said to be considering lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into the country’s economy. BBG
• Wealthy investors attempted to pull more than $20bn from private credit funds in the first quarter, underscoring the growing strain on the asset class. Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. The funds tracked by the FT, which collectively manage investment portfolios worth about $300bn, have honored just over half of the redemption requests they received. Many investors have been forced to wait until a redemption window opens up later this quarter to exit. FT
• The Trump administration will likely extend its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil this week, former Treasury and State Department officials said — teeing up a similar move on Iranian oil. Semafor
• World Bank forecasts global growth for 2027 at 2.4%, while it said investment remains subdued as firms await clearer signals on the external environment and domestic policy, which it called a binding constraint on growth.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were lower in a mild pullback from yesterday's ceasefire-fuelled extremes and as the widespread euphoria gradually waned amid the wide gaps between each side's peace proposals. Furthermore, several strikes had continued in the 24 hours after the  announcement, and the inclusion of Lebanon is seen as a key point of contention, while shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, although a senior Iranian official stated that Iran could open Hormuz on Thursday or Friday ahead of their planned talks. ASX 200 traded little changed amid a lack of data or drivers and with resilience in energy, defensives and financials offsetting the firm losses in the tech sector. Nikkei 225 pulled back after the prior day's stellar performance, with the index returning to beneath the 56,000 level amid very few fresh catalysts and the absence of tier-1 data to sustain the previous momentum. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the uninspired mood amid concerns regarding the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire, and with weakness in Chinese tech and property stocks, while there were prior reports that the US FCC will vote on a measure that would ban Chinese labs from testing US electronics.

Top Asian News

• South Korea's Finance Minister comments that financial and FX market volatility has eased a bit.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) have pulled back from Wednesday's ceasefire-related surge after cracks appeared in the agreement. US President Trump announced that the military will remain in and around Iran until a real agreement is fully complied with. Furthermore, the IRGC announced a new Hormuz corridor, effectively raising risks of disruption and bottlenecks. The IBEX 35 outperforms, with the index trading near flat. On the other hand, the DAX 40 is the underperformer. European sectors echo the above bias, with the majority in the red. Energy and Chemicals are amongst the sectors in the green, highlighting its defensive characteristics, while Consumer Products and Services and Technology sit at the bottom of the pile.

Top European News

• Italian PM Meloni said ruling out government reshuffle, not planning to resign; if the middle east crisis were to flare up again, Europe should consider temporary suspension of the stability and growth pact.
• EU's Dombrovskis said the bloc will still be hit by a “stagflationary shock” of low growth and rising inflation despite the US-Iran ceasefire, while European Commission is preparing to cut growth forecasts, according to FT.

FX

• FX Markets are paring some of Wednesday's optimism with crude gaining and general risk-off elsewhere as markets weigh Iran's claims of ceasefire breaches and subsequent concerns over Hormuz following reports from state media.
• DXY cautiously chugged higher throughout the European morning, supported by the key 99.00 mark. Overnight, FOMC Minutes were viewed as hawkish, with it stating many members said persistently higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated long enough to justify rate rises. Taking a look at rate expectations, markets moved to price just 7bps of easing by year-end compared to 15bps pre-minutes.
• Kiwi continues to perform well, amid hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Breman, she said inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term, and they will ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up. This marks the second day of gains against the greenback, with NZD the sole currency that outperforms a mildly stronger USD. In terms of market pricing, 75bps of easing is expected by year-end, an increase of 15bps since last week.
• JPY is the worst performer in the G10, as energy prices weigh on the net importer nation. The pair marked a session low of 158.45 and sits on a 159 handle at the time of writing. Elsewhere, EUR/GBP trades a touch above the 0.87 mark. In a note this morning, ING suggests rate differentials will help the cross with EUR; rate expectations are likely to prove sticky and BoE dovish pricing potentially coming "through more smoothly" should energy prices continue to decline.

Central Banks

• RBNZ Governor Bremen said more risk on inflation to the upside and inflation is expected to increase considerably in the near-term. said:. Previous rate cuts are still providing some stimulus to the economy, and a swift resolution to the conflict is expected to yield stronger growth this year. RBNZ to ‘act decisively’ if core prices pick up.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said short and medium-term interest rates are clearly negative, adds accommodative financial conditions are maintained, leading to moderate increase in capex.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks are trading flat to lower, as benchmarks pull back from the extremes seen on Wednesday, and as traders begin to find holes within the current ceasefire agreement. This comes after Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said three clauses of the 10-point plan have been violated so far, and as such, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable. Another interesting point is that Iran introduced controlled shipping routes and coordination with the IRGC, effectively shifting from free transit to monitored flows—raising risks of disruptions and bottlenecks. (Full details on the Newsquawk headline feed). This, alongside continued strikes on both Lebanon and Iran, has led to a rebound in the energy complex, once again renewing inflationary concerns.
• USTs are currently flat, and mildly outperforming vs peers – currently trading within a 111-04+ to 111-10 range, and have entirely reversed the initial ceasefire-related optimism. Much of the action facilitated by the geopolitical factors mentioned above, but the complex is also weighed on by hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes and heading into a 30yr auction later today. On the data front, markets will await weekly claims, February’s PCE data (exp. +0.4% M/M vs prev. +0.3%) and core PCE (exp. +0.4% M/M vs prev. +0.4%); final Q4 GDP stats. From a yield perspective, the 2yr has rebounded back towards 3.785% (vs Wednesday’s trough at 3.713%).
• Bunds are in the red and down by around 50 ticks at this stage, and holding towards the bottom end of a 125.67 to 126.10 range. German paper did dip a tick below the high from 7th April, with market participants highlighting 125.53 as a potential area for intraday longs to be exited. Bunds are moving at the whim of energy prices this morning, but there have been some domestic updates. An interesting comment via Italy’s PM Meloni got some attention, after she suggested that the EU should consider a temporary suspension of budget deficit rules if the Iran war persists. No move in EGBs at the time, but traders will remain cognizant of any fiscal related concerns, should a suspension be enacted. From a data perspective, Industrial Production printed at -0.3% (exp. +0.9%), highlighting the turbulent recovery of Germany – even before the Iran war started.
• Gilts are underperforming vs peers, after leading the fixed complex on Wednesday. As above, moving at the whim of energy prices, with UK-specific newsflow light. UK 2yr has rebounded back towards 4.237% (vs trough of 4.044% on Wednesday). UK paper currently trades within an 89.10 to 89.61 range; further pressure could see a breach below the 89.00 mark, and then the high from 7th April at 88.88.
• UK sold GBP 4bln 4.125% 2033 Gilt: b/c 3.30x (prev. 3.37x), average yield 4.507% (prev. 4.075%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps).
• Spain sold EUR 5.778bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 2.35% 2029, 2.60% 2031 and 3.30% 2036 Bono & EUR 0.676bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.15% 2036 I/L Bono.
• Japan sold JPY 1.9tln 5yr JGBs; b/c 3.58x (prev. 3.69x), average yield 1.826% (prev. 1.633%).
• Unicredit (UCG IM) to sell 6-year EUR-denominated noted, guidance seen +125bps to MS.
• Lloyds (LLOY LN) to sell 10-year GBP-denominated noted, guidance seen at +170bps to UK Treasuries.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said it is important to base JGB issuance plans on market demand, when asked about extending duration of government debt.

Commodities

• Optimism over the US–Iran ceasefire faded as both sides signalled breaches and diverging terms, with Trump warning of military escalation if compliance fails and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf saying multiple clauses of Tehran’s plan have already been violated. Lebanon has emerged as the key fault line—while the US and Israel insist it sits outside the agreement, Iran and its allies treat it as integral, raising the risk of collapse as Israeli strikes and Hezbollah activity continue. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz adds further fragility, as Iran introduced controlled shipping routes and coordination with the IRGC, effectively shifting from free transit to monitored flows—raising risks of disruptions and bottlenecks (Full Analysis available on the Newsquawk headline feed).
• Crude rebounded after Wednesday’s biggest one-day drop since April 2020, with Brent Jun'26 back above USD 97/bbl (after Wednesday’s 13% slump), as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and Israeli attacks on Lebanon raised concerns over the durability of the Middle East truce. WTI May'26 trades towards the top of a USD 96.25-98.38/bbl range and Brent Jun'26 towards the upper end of a USD 96.30-98.53/bbl parameter. Mizuho expects crude to remain near USD 90/bbl through Q2 before returning to pre-conflict levels, while CBA sees upside risks while the Strait remains largely closed and physical undersupply linked to the Iran war supports prices.
• Spot gold holds above USD 4,700/oz after rising 1.5% over the prior two sessions, as traders weighed hopes for a diplomatic resolution against sporadic fighting that threatened the ceasefire. However, some flagged a technical correction after the sharp rise in front-month Comex futures. The metal trades within a narrow USD 4,699-4,733/oz range at the time of writing, with the 100 DMA at USD 4,671.57/oz. Commerzbank said gold had been supported by lower oil prices, easing inflation risks and pulling down rate expectations and bond yields, though the outlook still depends on whether a lasting US-Iran settlement emerges.
• Copper futures pulled back overnight and remain weak in the European session as the heightened risk appetite from the fragile US-Iran ceasefire petered out, with 3M LME copper in a narrow USD 12,587.00- 12,678.70/oz.
• Brazil court suspends oil export tax for Shell (SHEL LN), Equinor (EQNR), TotalEnergies (TTE FP) and Repsol (REP SM).
• OECD has urged governments to unwind expensive fuel duty cuts, according to the FT.
• Japan considers releasing an additional 20 days of oil reserves, according to Kyodo.
• US mulls lifting Venezuela's central bank sanctions with the aim of increasing oil output, according to sources.
• Russia is offering sanctioned LNG to Asia via intermediaries at a 40% discount.
• Goldman Sachs said Brent would average above USD 100/bbl through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for another month. Adds that the situation remains fluid after the start of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, and that risks to its oil price forecast are still skewed to the upside.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump posted "All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel....will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with".
• US President Trump posted "NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!".
• Trump admin is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that he believes were unhelpful to the US and Israel during the Iran war, WSJ reported citing admin officials. The proposal would involve moving US troops out of NATO member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and station them in countries that were more supportive of the US military campaign. The proposal would fall far short of President Trump’s recent threats to fully withdraw the US from the alliance, which by law he can’t do without Congress. Plans could also include closure of at least 1 US base in a European country, possible Spain or Germany.
• NATO Secretary-General Rutte pointed out to US President Trump that a large majority of European nations have been helpful.
• US officials say they do not rule out resuming fighting in Iran and that President Trump will not offer major concessions to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, adds Iran's insistence on controlling straight reformers could lead to a resumption of fighting.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said the Speaker of Parliament will lead Iran’s delegation for the talks, and the exchange of messages continues via Pakistan, Al Jazeera reported.
• Iran Ambassador to Pakistan said the Iranian delegation is to arrive on Thursday night in Islamabad for "serious talks", based on the 10 points proposed by Iran.
• IRGC Navy announces alternative shipping routes to avoid possible sea mines, according to ISNA.
• IRGC claimed on Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon, according to CNN.
• Iranian Parliament's Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Ibrahim Azizi said '"Once again, you have proven that you do not know the meaning of a ceasefire" and "Only fire will discipline you...so wait for it".
• Saudi Arabia and Iran reportedly discussed de-escalation in a call, according to SPA.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry senior source suggests US has walked back on including Lebanon in the ceasefire with Iran, Al Arabiya reported.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu says will continue to strike Hezbollah with force, overnight, the IDF struck a series of terror infrastructures in southern Lebanon.
• Israel's Ministry of Energy directs the resumption of operations at the Karish gas platform after it halted due to the war, according to Israel's Channel 12.
• Hezbollah said its attacks on Israel will continue until the aggression stops, according to Fars News Agency, while it fires rockets at Israel citing ceasefire breaches.
• Missile fired from Lebanon into Northern Israel, according to Fars News Agency.
• Israeli attacks continue in Lebanon, despite a ceasefire with Iran, according to Anadolu Agency.
• French President Macron spoke with Iran's President Pezeshkian and US President Trump, and told both that their decision to accept the ceasefire was the best possible one.
• Russia launched 119 drones at Ukraine overnight according to UKR media.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Feb Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.43%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Personal Spending, est. 0.6%, prior 0.38%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.83%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: United States Feb Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 3%, prior 3.06%
• 8:30 am: United States Apr 4 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210k, prior 202k
• 8:30 am: United States Mar 28 Continuing Claims, est. 1828k, prior 1841k
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q T GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q T Personal Consumption, est. 2%, prior 2%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q T GDP Price Index, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
• 8:30 am: United States 4Q T Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
• 10:00 am: United States Feb F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.5%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, oil prices are creeping up again as several questions remain about the ceasefire announced on Tuesday night. A few factors have driven that, but it’s pushed Brent crude oil (+2.34%) back up to $96.97/bbl, and it’s also taken the momentum out of the market rally overnight. Indeed, Asian equities are down across the board after yesterday’s surge, whilst US and European equity futures have also stumbled. So the Nikkei (-0.75%), the KOSPI (-1.61%), the CSI 300 (-0.64%) and the Hang Seng (-0.36%) have all fallen back this morning, and S&P 500 futures (-0.21%) are also pointing towards losses after a run of 6 consecutive gains.

Those overnight losses follow several indications that the ceasefire isn’t holding quite as expected on Tuesday night. For instance, both the UAE and Kuwait said yesterday that their air defences had been intercepting drones from Iran. And on the Iranian side, their Parliament’s Speaker Ghalibaf said that three points of the ceasefire agreement had been violated. Moreover, the IRGC warned of a “regret-inducing response" if Israel’s strikes against Lebanon didn’t stop immediately, whilst the Fars news agency said that the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz was halted because of Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon. So collectively, that’s raised concern about how durable this ceasefire will prove, particularly with it only being a two-week truce.

In the meantime, President Trump also posted overnight that US forces would “remain in place, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” He also said that if it weren’t complied with, then the military action would be “stronger than anyone has ever seen before”, and that the US military was “looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest”. He also criticised NATO in a separate post overnight, saying that they weren’t “there when we needed them”, and called on people to “remember Greenland, that big, poorly run, piece of ice!!!”. So that raised concerns about a repeat of mid-January, when Trump’s call for the US to take Greenland and the threat of European tariffs drove a risk-off move in global markets.

Nevertheless, compared to 24 hours ago, the market stress has eased considerably, as the ceasefire news and hopes for a de-escalation pathway have created a lot more optimism. Moreover, there are still signs of progress, with White House Press Secretary Leavitt saying that Vice President JD Vance would lead a delegation to Islamabad, with a first round of talks scheduled for Saturday morning.

So despite the overnight newsflow, the net result is that fears have eased considerably about a stagflationary shock, with huge gains for bonds and equities as a result. Indeed, Brent crude oil prices saw a sharp decline of -13.29% yesterday, taking them to a 4-week low of $94.75/bbl. And in turn, there was an incredibly strong performance, particularly in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (+3.88%) posted its best performance since 2022, whilst 10yr bund yields (-14.1bps) saw their biggest decline since 2023. Similarly in the US, the S&P 500 (+2.51%) was also back within 3% of its record high, whilst US HY spreads (-17bps) fell beneath their pre-strike levels in late-February. So even with all the volatility of recent weeks it was another day of historic moves, and the overnight move for Brent crude this morning (+2.34%) still leaves us well beneath the pre-ceasefire oil price of around $110/bbl.

The ceasefire itself was the main driver of those moves, but they got further support from the positive tone of US officials yesterday. For example, President Trump said the US would “work closely with Iran”, and that they were discussing tariff and sanctions relief, though he also said in a subsequent post that countries supplying military weapons to Iran would face a US tariff of 50%. And later on, Vice President Vance said that “we’re on the right track” in negotiations.

So overall, even with the question marks around a ceasefire, the fact one had been agreed led to a huge wave of optimism, with investors feeling much clearer about the path to a de-escalation. Most directly, the prospect that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen led to a big decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-13.29%) down to a 4-week low of $94.75/bbl, whilst WTI (-16.41%) fell to $94.41/bbl. Meanwhile, we saw a big decline in European natural gas, with front-month TTF futures (-14.92%) falling to €45.30/MWh, their lowest in over a month, which again eased fears about the scale of any European inflation shock. However, with persisting restrictions on Hormuz shipping, the declines were more modest further out the oil curve, with the 6-month Brent future (-2.33%) closing at $81.19/bbl, still above its levels late last week.

That backdrop of lower energy prices meant that inflation fears eased dramatically, which in tun led to a dovish repricing of central banks, especially in Europe. For instance, the 1yr US inflation swap plummeted by -12.9bps to 3.13%, and the 1yr Euro inflation swap fell by a huge -38bps to 3.11%. In turn, that saw investors price out the likelihood of rapid rate hikes, with the probability of an ECB hike this month down from 68% before the ceasefire announcement to 32% by yesterday’s close, and a further decline to 29% this morning.

All that meant yields saw dramatic declines in Europe. Indeed, 10yr bund yields (-14.1bps) were back down to 2.94%, marking their biggest daily decline since April 2023. At the front end, the 2yr German yield (-22.4bps) saw its biggest decline since March 2023, the week of Credit Suisse’s collapse, so it was another day of historic declines. And it a similar story across the continent, with 10yr OATs (-20.1bps), BTPs (-26.1bps) and gilts (-19.3bps) all posting their biggest declines since 2023 as well.

US Treasuries saw more muted moves, given yields had already fallen late in Tuesday’s session and oil prices were edging higher later in the US session yesterday. So both 2yr yields (-0.1bps at 3.79%) and 10yr yields (-0.2bps at 4.29%) were little changed by the close, having been 6-8bps lower on the day early on. We also got the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, which showed the uncertainty on how officials should respond to the war’s impact. It said that “most participants” were concerned that “a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a further softening in labor market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts”. But it also said that “Many participants pointing to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices, which could call for rate increases”.
For equities, there were also dramatic moves yesterday, as the oil price slump provided a huge lift on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, the rally was the biggest in several years, with the DAX (+5.06%) and the STOXX 600 (+3.88%) seeing their biggest gains since March 2022. Indeed, the latest gains left the STOXX 600 just over 3% beneath its record high just before the strikes began. Then in the US, the S&P 500 (+2.51%) advanced by a slightly smaller amount, but it was still a 6th consecutive advance for the index, with the VIX index of volatility (-4.74pts) down to its lowest since the strikes began, at 21.04pts. However, the main exception to those equity gains came from the energy sector, with the S&P 500’s energy component down -3.66%.

Emerging market assets were another beneficiary amid the easing energy fears, with the MSCI EM equity index (+5.49%) posting its biggest rise since the early Covid volatility in March 2020. By contrast, the dollar index (-0.73%) fell for a third consecutive session for the first time since the strikes began.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US PCE inflation for February, the weekly initial jobless claims, the third estimate of Q4 GDP, and German industrial production for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Sleijpen.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 08:18

Pro-Iranian Hackers Breached US Infrastructure, Feds Say

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pro-Iranian hackers have breached critical U.S. infrastructure, according to a joint warning issued Tuesday by several federal agencies.

High voltage power lines run through a sub-station along the electrical power grid in Miami on Jan. 14, 2026. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The advisory came only hours ahead of President Donald Trump’s Tuesday deadline for Iran, warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran refuses to open the Hormuz Strait to oil traffic. Trump later suspended the attack following negotiations mediated by Pakistan.

Iranian cyberattacks targeting U.S. organizations have increased recently with the ongoing war against Iran, the advisory said.

In the latest breach, hackers caused disruptions through “malicious interactions” on project files and data displays in organizations across multiple U.S. critical infrastructure sectors, including government services and facilities, local municipalities, water and waste systems, and energy infrastructure.

Hackers exploited vulnerabilities in internet-connected devices used to control machinery in the key U.S. sectors.

“In a few cases, this activity has resulted in operational disruption and financial loss,” reads the advisory, which was issued by the FBI, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the National Security Agency, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and U.S. Cyber Command’s Cyber National Mission Force.

U.S. entities that use the impacted devices, including programmable logic controllers (PLCs) from Rockwell Automation’s Allen Bradley brand, are advised to check their cyber defenses, apply safety measures listed in the warning, and review activity on their networks for indications that they were compromised to avoid the risk of further breaches.

Although the agencies specifically named the Rockwell Automation devices, they said other brands could have been affected as well.

“Due to the widespread use of these PLCs and the potential for additional targeting of other branded [operational technology] devices across critical infrastructure, the authoring agencies recommend U.S. organizations urgently review the tactics, techniques, and procedures and indicators of compromise in this advisory,” the advisory reads.

If U.S. organizations discover they were breached, they are advised to contact appropriate federal agencies for support, risk mitigation, and investigation assistance.

The joint notice Tuesday listed IP addresses that hackers used within specific time frames. The IP addresses were provided so U.S. companies can check against their own logs for indications of a breach by Iranian-backed threat actors.

“The authoring agencies recommend continually testing your security program, at scale, in a production environment to ensure optimal performance,” the warning reads.

This latest breach is not the first time Iran-backed hackers have breached critical U.S. infrastructure. In November 2023, a cyber group called “CyberAv3ngers” compromised at least 75 U.S.-based PLC devices.

Iran has also engaged in “malicious cyber activity” against key U.S. government officials and others involved in political campaigns, according to a September 2024 advisory.

“The cyber actors working on behalf of the IRGC gain access to victims’ personal and business accounts using social engineering techniques, often impersonating professional contacts on email or messaging platforms,” the 2024 notice reads.

Additionally, Iran-backed hackers targeted Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign and tried to deliver information they extracted to former President Joe Biden’s campaign.

The FBI and other agencies said in a statement that the hackers also tried sending the stolen Trump data to media organizations.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 08:05

Federal Appeals Court Allows Pentagon To Designate Anthropic As A Supply-Chain Risk

In a significant development for the intersection of artificial intelligence policy and national security, a federal appeals court in Washington ruled on April 8 that the Department of War may designate Anthropic as a supply-chain risk while a full judicial review plays out. The decision came after the AI company sought an emergency stay to block the controversial designation.

Pages from the Anthropic website and the company's logos are displayed on a computer screen in New York on Feb. 26, 2026. AP Photo/Patrick Sison

The three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit concluded that Anthropic “has not satisfied the stringent requirements for a stay pending court review,” allowing the blacklist to remain in effect for now. This ruling directly conflicts with a temporary injunction issued last month by a federal district court in California, which had paused the designation during ongoing litigation.

The designation, authorized under federal laws intended to shield military and government systems from supply-chain vulnerabilities and foreign sabotage, functions as an effective blacklist. It prohibits Anthropic from conducting business with the federal government or its contractors and directs federal agencies, contractors, and suppliers to terminate existing ties with the company.

The move originated after Anthropic declined a Department of War request to alter the user policies and safety guardrails of its flagship AI model, Claude. The company refused to remove restrictions that prevent the AI from being used for mass surveillance or the development and operation of fully autonomous weapons systems. Anthropic has emphasized its commitment to “constitutional AI” principles and responsible deployment, arguing that such guardrails are essential to ethical AI use.

The Pentagon has stated publicly that it does not intend to employ Claude for those specific purposes, but it has insisted on the flexibility to use the technology for all lawful military applications. President Donald Trump weighed in on social media earlier, accusing Anthropic of trying to “strong-arm” the federal government by using its AI policies to dictate military decisions.

Late on April 8, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche celebrated the appeals court decision on X (formerly Twitter), describing it as “a resounding victory for military readiness.” He added: “Our military needs full access to Anthropic’s models if its technology is integrated into our sensitive systems.”

Anthropic, a prominent AI firm founded by former OpenAI executives and backed by major investors including Amazon and Google, has positioned itself as a leader in safe and reliable AI development. Its Claude models are widely used in enterprise, research, and creative applications precisely because of their built-in safeguards.

The case is believed to mark the first time such a supply-chain risk designation — typically reserved for foreign entities posing security threats — has been applied to a major U.S.-based AI company. It underscores deepening tensions between commercial AI developers’ emphasis on ethical guardrails and the government’s push for unfettered access to advanced technology for defense purposes.

Litigation continues in both the California district court and the D.C. Circuit, and further updates are expected as the conflicting rulings are reconciled.

* * *

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 08:00

Will Europe Have Its Own FBI? Polish MEP Sounds Alarm Over EU's Planned Expansion Of Powers For Europol

Via Remix News,

Polish Law and Justice (PiS) MEP Mariusz Kamiński raises alarm about the European Commission’s plans to change Europol’s operations, warning that “the European Commission is quietly building EU law enforcement agencies,” reports Do Rzeczy. There are now fears that Europe could have its own FBI, with vastly expanded and centralized powers.

“The European Public Prosecutor’s Office has already been established, and now the European Commission wants to turn Europol into a ‘truly operational EU police agency.’ This means that citizens of member states will be able to become the target of investigations and operational activities of European law enforcement agencies, bypassing national authorities. This would be a real ‘milestone’ in the construction of a centralized European state. A very dangerous situation!” wrote the former interior and administration minister on X.

Kamiński sent a letter to the European Commission questioning the activities described and defending Europol as it stands.

The agency has been in operation since Jan. 3, 1994.

He notes that “Europol’s success is based on cooperation, supporting member states, and coordinating the fight against cross-border crime. Europol’s activities are particularly important in combating drug crimes, human smuggling, and VAT fraud. This model is a good example of effective cooperation at the European level.”

“Therefore, I oppose the announcements of transforming Europol into a fully operational police agency, which have been met with criticism from many experts and member states. During the LIBE meeting on March 19, 2026, Commissioner Brunner concluded his statement by saying that it will not be a European FBI, which can be interpreted as a departure from the Commission’s radical announcement,” he continued.

The PiS MEP asks: “How does the Commission understand the concept of a ‘truly operational police agency’?” and about safeguards to ensure that Europol “remains an agency supporting member states and not an authority exercising direct police powers.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 05:00

Cost Of Living Dominates Many Nations' Biggest Worries

According to Statista Consumer Insights, prices and the cost of living are considered the biggest challenge in around half of the 32 countries included in a recent survey. 

This is also true for United States, where the issue ranks first among the 18 surveyed options, with 50 percent citing it as a main concern.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, the issue is also collectively seen as the biggest problem facing Australia, Japan, Germany and Saudi Arabia.

You will find more infographics at Statista

However, this is not the case everywhere.

In Spain (59 percent) and the Netherlands, the availability of housing is perceived as a significantly more pressing challenge.

The same applies to crime in Brazil (62 percent) and other Latin American countries as well as to the economic situation and unemployment cited most often in Italy and India (50-52 percent of respondents).

Poles meanwhile saw health and social security services as the most central problem, with half of respondents picking this issue.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 04:15

The Great Retreat: Beijing's Digital Currency Ambitions Are Faltering

Authored by James Gorrie via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

For years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has positioned the digital yuan (e-CNY) as the ultimate weapon of financial totalitarianism. It was intended to be the crowning achievement of the surveillance state. With a programmable, traceable digital currency, Beijing thought it would finally break the back of private payment giants like Alipay and WeChat Pay.

Signage of the Chinese digital currency is seen near a coffee store in the New Actuation Fintech Center in Beijing on Feb. 17, 2022. Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images

Yet, despite having total control over the levers of the domestic economy, Beijing’s digital dream is showing signs of terminal fatigue.

Since its debut at the 2022 Winter Olympics, the e-CNY has gone from an aggressive, potential retail juggernaut to a low-public-appeal tool for state administration.

In short, nobody really wants it.

The Genesis of Control: Why the e-CNY was Born

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) didn’t launch the digital yuan to make life easier for the average citizen in Shanghai or Shenzhen. It was an aggressive move against the autonomy of the private sector and an offensive tactic to undermine individual privacy.

In 2014, when China’s research into the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) began, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) realized that the vast majority of retail transactions occurred on platforms it did not directly control. The authorities understand that any lack of control is a potential threat to the Party. Therefore, the goal of the digital yuan was “financial inclusion” (a euphemism for state monitoring and control of every cent spent), and the “internationalization of the yuan” to challenge the U.S. dollar.

But most importantly, it was about strengthening the CCP’s “Social Credit System.” A retail CBDC allows the state to freeze assets instantly if a citizen’s behavior deviates from Party orthodoxy.

The Adoption Decline: Why People Refuse to Swipe

Despite distributing millions of dollars in “red envelope” giveaways and forcing government employees in cities like Changshu to receive salaries in e-CNY, adoption has stalled. The reason is simple: there is no consumer benefit, only risk.

Alipay and WeChat Pay already provide a seamless user experience. Transitioning to a state-controlled wallet offers zero additional utility while stripping away the last vestiges of financial anonymity. In a culture where “saving face” and protecting one’s assets from the predatory state are paramount, it seems that the Chinese public has responded with a collective shrug.

A Chinese customer uses his mobile to pay via a QR code with the WeChat app at a local market in Beijing on Sept. 19, 2020. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images A Digital Yuan Reimagined?

Even though domestic digital yuan transaction volumes have made significant gains in terms of percentage of transaction usage, the total remains just a small fraction of the total money supply. In most instances, it’s used for low-value public transit or utility payments before being immediately converted back into traditional bank deposits.

To enhance its appeal as broadly as possible, as of Jan. 1 this year, the central bank is allowing commercial banks to pay interest on e-CNY wallets, making it a savings as well as a payment vehicle. This may be the PBOC’s effort to salvage the digital currency. But it also changes the nature of the original digital yuan as a CBDC, at least to some degree. However, current deposits in China earn a meager 0.05 percent.

Opinions vary on which criteria are optional, but most definitions hold that it’s a “digital form of central bank money.” That strict definition may make the new design make much of the e-CNY no longer a true CBDC.

A New Trade Currency?

Realizing that domestic retail adoption is not where it needs to be, Beijing is shifting its focus toward “Project mBridge”—a multi-CBDC platform designed for cross-border trade between BRICS nations. The strategy for the digital yuan has shifted from monitoring citizens’ grocery shopping habits to bypassing the SWIFT system for oil and gas trade.

Increasing international use is part of a broader strategy to maintain trade and financial relationships if U.S. financial sanctions cut it off from dollars. Trading partners are indeed using it, but not as much as Beijing would like or needs. Increasing the interest rate would certainly boost the e-CNY’s attractiveness internationally, but the current low interest rate isn’t much of an incentive to adopt it.

By focusing on a wholesale CBDC for international settlements, the CCP hopes to build a financial “Iron Curtain” that is immune to Western sanctions. This pivot is a tacit admission that the retail e-CNY has failed to become the “people’s money.”

Economic Decay and Internal Fractures

The failure and redesign of the e-CNY shouldn’t be viewed in a vacuum. The conditions and aspects of the digital yuan are still evolving because the original rollout didn’t succeed as much as the CCP had hoped. The digital yuan evolution is happening as the “China Miracle” enters its death throes.

There are too many negative economic factors to ignore. The property market, the main source of Chinese household wealth, continues to deteriorate. Youth unemployment remains at record highs, and the Belt and Road Initiative has turned into a massive debt-trap liability, with many partner nations unable to repay loans. Adopting a new currency that removes all privacy and personal autonomy in such economic conditions is poor timing, to say the least.

Political Division Within the CCP Is Another Factor

Political support within the CCP is shifting in intensity and among factions, and the Party is not the monolith it appears to be. Factional infighting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s “Security First” loyalists and the remnants of the technocratic wing has led to policy paralysis as other financial priorities demanded attention.

Resources that were once earmarked for the retail digital yuan are being diverted to shore up a failing banking system and to fund “theater” projects in the artificial intelligence sector meant to project a facade of technological parity with the West.

The Future: A Tool for Control, Not Commerce

Will the CCP cancel the e-CNY?

That’s not likely. Dictatorships rarely admit defeat. What’s more, it would be another mark against Xi’s authority that his opponents could use against him. In short, the digitalization of currency isn’t going away.

Instead, the digital yuan will likely be relegated to a specialized tool for state-to-state transactions, government disbursements, and auditing local officials. Plus, the digital yuan is ultimately about increasing control over the people and preserving the CCP’s rule over the country.

It’s here to stay, in one form or another.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 23:25

Raising A Child Now Costs About $303,000: Study

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Parents who start raising a child in 2026 will spend around $303,418 from birth to 18 years old, according to a study published April 6 by Lending Tree. The cost increased 1.9 percent from last year.

The average annual cost works out to about $16,857 over 18 years, pushing this year’s estimate over $300,000 for the first time since Lending Tree began calculating it in 2023, the online loan marketplace reported.

Hawaii is the most expensive state to raise a small child, as yearly costs reached $40,342 for the first five years, the report said. Raising a child for 18 years in Hawaii is projected to cost $412,661. The next most expensive state is Alaska at $365,047, followed by Maryland at $326,360.

Parents in the Aloha State are projected to spend more than 27 percent of their yearly income on raising a small child. Nebraska and Indiana follow closely with 23 percent. In all, parents in 22 states should expect to spend at least 20 percent of their yearly income on raising a small child, the report stated.

Maryland at $36,419 and Massachusetts at $34,247 were the second and third-most costly states per year for young children. California came in fourth highest with a yearly cost of $33,692. Insurance premiums in California were the highest of the four top states at an average of $5,254 per year.

The differences between some coastal states are substantial. Raising a child in California will now cost an average of $312,300, compared with Florida, where it costs $280,280, the study showed.

States with the lowest annual costs to raise a small child were Mississippi ($17,148), Alabama ($18,019), and South Dakota ($18,622).

Florida ranked 27th with a nearly $25,000 annual price tag to raise a small child, while Texas ranked 45th at just about $21,000.

Costs to raise a small child rose by about 10 percent or more in 14 states from 2025 to 2026. In four of those states, prices jumped by at least 20 percent, according to Lending Tree. Those included Nebraska, where costs increased 27.4 percent, and in Montana (24.5), Maine (24.4), and Wisconsin (23.3).

The largest overall cost increases were found in rental costs, which jumped by nearly 50 percent, and girls’ clothing, which jumped by nearly 27 percent.

President Donald Trump, joined by Republican lawmakers, signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law during an Independence Day military family picnic on the South Lawn of the White House on July 4, 2025. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

Cost savings were found in a 10 percent increase in the child tax credit provided by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This resulted in $200 in savings each year.

The annual cost for the first five years of a child’s life decreased by about $94 from $29,419 to $29,325, or about 0.3 percent, because of a small dip in day care costs, according to the report.

* * *

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 21:45

California Supreme Court Orders "Rogue" Sheriff To Pause Election Fraud Probe

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times,

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco was ordered by the California Supreme Court on April 8 to halt his investigation into 2025 election fraud allegations so the judges can review the legal challenges that his probe faces.

Bianco, a Republican who is running for California governor, seized more than half a million 2025 election ballots after allegedly receiving complaints from locals.

Then, last month he seized an additional 1,000 boxes of election materials.

Local election officials told the county Board of Supervisors that his decision to take the ballots was unfounded.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, asked the court to step in and stop the investigation, saying that Bianco did not have authority to take the ballots.

Bianco seized another 426 boxes of ballots last week.

The top court ordered Bianco and his team to “pause the investigation into the November 2025 special election and preserve all seized items.”

“Today’s decision by the California Supreme Court reins in the destabilizing actions of a rogue Sheriff, prohibiting him from continuing this investigation while our litigation continues,” Bonta said in a statement.

The Epoch Times has contacted Bianco’s office for comment.

Bianco’s career in law enforcement extends 30 years.

In 2018 he was elected as the sheriff, coroner, and public administrator of Riverside County.

Bianco entered the crowded California gubernatorial race just over a year ago and edges behind fellow Republican, Steve Hilton, in the latest Berkeley IGS poll.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who may be eying a presidential bid as he exits his current seat in January 2027, applauded today’s ruling by the court.

“Today’s decision is a victory for democracy and the rule of law,” Newsom wrote in an X post on Wednesday.

“This rogue sheriff chased conspiracy theories, tried to undermine our elections, and got the ruling he deserved. Trump and MAGA’s election denialism is a cancer, a danger to our democracy, and it must be stopped.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 18:25

Exxon Warns Of $6.5 Billion Hit From Iran War As Q1 Earnings Set To Print Slightly Below Consensus

In an early clue how the Iran war will impact energy earnings, ExxonMobil warned of a $6.5bn hit to Q1 earnings from the Iran war but said the bulk of this was the result of unfavorable timing for its accounting of hedging contracts, which would be offset as underlying transactions were eventually completed. The US supermajor also said that global oil and gas production would be 6% lower in the first three months of the year than in the fourth quarter of 2025 because of attacks on facilities in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in which it holds ownership stakes.

According to Exxon's 8K filed this morning, Goldman calculated that the company's adjusted EPS at the mid-point came in at ~$1.80 vs. consensus closer to $1.90 and Q4 levels closer to $1.71. As shown in the chart below, there was sequential improvement in Upstream driven by higher liquids prices, sequential declines in Downstream due to higher maintenance and relatively flat performance in Chemicals.

Volume disruptions at Exxon's production and refining businesses would deliver a $400mn to $800mn hit to earnings, while trading losses incurred because of a failure to deliver physical cargoes hedged with financial derivatives would cost another $600mn to $800mn, the company said in a statement.

Separately, the company provided a number of strategic updates, including: (1) the Permian likely producing at 1.8 mn boe/d in 2026, (2) first gas at Golden Pass having been achieved on March 30, and (3) that the Middle East production negatively impacted Q1 Upstream volumes by 6% compared to Q4 levels, with the overall Middle East portfolio representing 20% of Upstream production (albeit a lower level of segment earnings). As an aside, the quarterly comparison was challenging given disruptions in the Middle East, and large timing effects, the latter of which are excluded for the purposes of comparison.

Exxon has one of the largest exposures among western oil majors to the Middle East, according to the FT, which accounts for about 20% of its oil and gas production and 5% of its refining and chemical capacity.

The company’s assets in the region include stakes in LNG joint ventures with QatarEnergy that were damaged last month by Iranian attacks. Exxon said two gas liquefaction facilities in Qatar in which it has an ownership interest accounted for about 3% of its 2025 global oil and gas production.

“Public reports indicate the damage will take a prolonged period to repair. Pending an on-site evaluation, we are unable to comment,” the company said.

But the largest hit to Exxon’s first-quarter earnings, worth $3.5bn to $4.9bn, is linked to the surge in oil and gas prices caused by the Middle East conflict and the accounting treatment of financial derivatives it used to hedge prices while shipping products.

The company said the negative impact on its first-quarter earnings was a LIFO “timing effect” that would unwind over subsequent quarters and result in net positive profit once the underlying transactions covered by the hedges were completed.

“This quarter’s earnings include an unusually large, negative timing impact associated with our trading programme and the temporary earnings impacts that result from how we account for certain trades . . . These are sound trades and the profitability that will result from them will be material,” said Neil Hansen, Exxon’s CFO. 

“Because we are using derivatives, we are required to account for them at month-end prices and reflect the resulting impact in earnings at the end of each quarter. This accounting often happens well before the sale of the associated physical product is complete. As noted, this earnings mismatch always results in a timing difference that eventually unwinds itself in periods of rising price.”

Exxon said that excluding the unfavorable timing effects that would reverse over time, earnings in the quarter would be higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Offsetting the timing effect loss was the surge in oil and gas prices following the start of the Middle East war on February 28 would deliver a $2.1bn to $2.9bn boost to first-quarter earnings.

Exxon shares fell 5% in pre-market trading on Wednesday to $154.70, as traders reacted to a two-week US-Iran ceasefire deal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 18:00

Justice Department Counters Russian Military Intelligence Unit Attack On US Targets

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Justice Department and FBI on Tuesday revealed they have conducted a court-approved technical operation to neutralize part of a network of small office and home office routers in the United States that become commandeered by a unit of Russia’s military intelligence.

The Department of Justice in Washington on March 11, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Russian Military Unit 26165—also known as APT28, Sofacy Group, Forest Blizzard, Pawn Storm, Fancy Bear, and Sednit—is part of Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff and has compromised routers to execute malicious Domain Name System (DNS) hijacking operations across the planet.

They targeted individual U.S. military members, the U.S. government, and critical infrastructure in which the Russian government expected to gain intelligence.

U.S. Attorney David Metcalf for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania said critical data had been commandeered.

“In the face of continued aggression by our nation-state adversaries, the U.S. government will respond just as aggressively,” Metcalf said. “Working with the FBI—and our partners around the world—we are committed to disrupting and exposing such threats to our nation’s cybersecurity.”

Assistant Director Brett Leatherman of FBI’s Cyber Division said U.S. and global routers had been compromised and that the FBI will continue to use its authorities to identify and impose costs on state-sponsored actors who target the American people.

“Given the scale of this threat, sounding the alarm wasn’t enough,” Leathernan said. “The FBI conducted a court-authorized operation to harden compromised routers across the United States.”

The FBI operation, called Operation Masquerade, is the most recent U.S. action to undermine continuous Russian state-sponsored cyber threats that exploit everyday consumer devices.

Since 2024, GRU actors have attacked known vulnerabilities in TP-Link routers worldwide to steal administrative credentials. They then obtained unauthorized access to devices and changed their settings to redirect DNS queries to GRU-controlled malicious resolvers.

The actors set up automated filters to identify high-value traffic before intercepting it. The malicious resolvers returned fraudulent DNS records that appeared to be legitimate services, including Microsoft Outlook Web Access.

This allowed man-in-the-middle attacks on what victims thought was encrypted network traffic. The GRU was able to harvest unencrypted passwords, authentication tokens, emails, and other sensitive data from devices on the compromised router’s local network.

The operation included technical contributions from Black Lotus Labs at Lumen, Microsoft Threat Intelligence, and MIT Lincoln Laboratory.

“Operation Masquerade was led by FBI Boston. It represents the latest example of how we’re defending our homeland from Russia’s GRU which weaponized routers owned by unsuspecting Americans in more than 23 states to steal sensitive government, military, and critical infrastructure information,” special agent in charge of the FBI’s Boston Field Office Ted E. Docks said.

He noted that the FBI employed cutting edge technology and leveraged private sector and international partners to combat the malicious activity and remediate routers.

Court documents from the case, filed in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania, outline how the FBI developed and tested commands sent only to affected routers in the United States.

The commands revealed evidence of GRU schemes, reset the devices’ DNS settings to legitimate resolvers of internet service providers, and shut down the original unauthorized access points. TP-Link router firmware and hardware settings confirmed the operation would not interrupt normal router function or collect users’ personal data.

Legitimate owners can change the settings through a factory reset with the hardware button or by manually restoring settings through the router’s web interface.

The FBI has also been working with internet service providers to inform affected users.

Owners of small office and home office routers are advised to replace end-of-life or end-of-support devices, upgrade to the newest firmware, verify that DNS resolvers are the same as those provided by the internet service provider, and review firewall rules to prevent unnecessary remote management access.

The GRU’s Unit 26165 was the subject of May 2025 joint advisory from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, as well as international partners, describing how the unit attacked Western logistics and technology companies delivering aid to Ukraine. The campaign, dating back to 2022, impacted organizations in 13 nations, including the United States, Germany, and France.

In April 2025, French officials said a series of hacks since 2021 were the work of the same GRU unit.

“The Russian military intelligence service (GRU) has been deploying a cyber-offensive modus operandi called APT28 against France for several years. It has targeted around 10 French entities since 2021,” Jean-Noël Barrot, the French foreign minister, wrote on social media platform X.

In a February 2024 disruption, the Justice Department took apart a GRU-controlled botnet that had attacked hundreds of small or home office routers around the world with malware. The FBI used the same malware to copy and delete stolen data while changing firewall rules to ban remote management access.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 17:40

Sen. Graham Urges Congressional Iran Vote...On Approving Peace, Not War

This is definitely in you really can't make this up(!) territory... Sen. Lindsey Graham is actually calling for a Congressional vote, but not concerning a War Powers Resolution. 

Instead, he has called for Congress to review and vote on any diplomatic agreement ending the war with what he described as the "Iranian terrorist regime." That's right, the NeoCon senator from South Carolina only wants a Congressional vote on whether peace should be approved. He has remained opposed to a War Powers vote.

In a series of posts on X, Graham stated that he supports a diplomatic outcome but insists any deal with Iran must undergo congressional scrutiny to ensure it aligns with his own Israel's US national security interests.

"Like everyone, I hope we can end the reign of terror of the Iranian regime through diplomacy," he wrote Tuesday night, and said that any agreement needs Congress "for a vote, like we did with the [former President Barack] Obama JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action]."

The Trump admin and Iran just entered a two-week ceasefire aimed at negotiating a broader settlement following over a month of brutal conflict which has chiefly focused on an air war.

Both sides are readying for direct, face-to-face talks in Islamabad. Trump has previewed that Kushner, Witkoff, and maybe even Vice President J.D. Vance will be there. Trump has said these will happen "very soon". He told the NY Post on Wednesday:

"We'll have Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, JD — maybe JD, I don't know," Mr. Trump told the New York Post over the phone. "There's a question of safety, security."

As for Graham, he has warned against premature conclusions about a deal and called for transparency. "At this early stage, I am extremely cautious regarding what is fact vs. fiction or misrepresentation,” He called for a "a healthy dose of sunlight" to be brought to the deal.

He's also calling for all of Iran's enriched uranium to come under American control. 

Again a diplomatic solution to end the reign of terror in Iran is the preferred outcome. The supposed negotiating document, in my view, has some troubling aspects, but time will tell. I look forward to the architects of this proposal, the Vice President and others, coming forward…

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) April 8, 2026

"As President Trump said this morning, all the highly enriched uranium must be removed from Iran and handed over to the United States – the Libyan Model," Graham wrote, adding that allowing continued enrichment "would be inconsistent with denying Iran a pathway toward a bomb."

However, there's an obvious irony to invoking the Libyan Model. After Gaddafi gave up his WMD aspirations during the Bush administration years, he was later by 2011 regime changed by the US and NATO, and bayonetted in the streets by Islamist 'rebels'.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 17:20

The New Financial Iron Curtain: Taxes, Capital Controls, & The War On Your Wealth

Authored by Chris Macintosh via InternationalMan.com,

There is a term called “gating” in the fund management world.

It refers to blocking investors from redeeming their funds. Funds do this sometimes as a precaution… and other times when they are in the poo.

Well, governments are the same. When they are in the poo, they also resort to their version of gating. It’s just called taxes.

I’ve always loved the Dutchies. Growing up in South Africa with the Afrikaners — descendants of the Dutch — I can tell you that as a group they are fantastic: hard working, ethical, and very down to earth.

It is with sadness, therefore, that I have to acknowledge that their government is thoroughly cocked-up, and they themselves are already behind a financial iron curtain.

They recently approved a 36% unrealised capital gains tax.

It has since been put back for consideration, but this is not the point. The point is that when governments get into the proverbial isht, this is precisely what happens. You’ll know this because we’ve been talking about it for donkey’s years in these missives.

Along with California and many blue states, the Canadians and Aussies are also toying with the idea. It’s been trial-ballooned (usually how they go about these things) in all of the above-mentioned places, but the Dutchies just approved it.

Some of you may recall how we don’t like ETFs which use futures contracts. The reason is that you are mathematically 100% going to lose money if you hold them over time. Why? Because volatility will erode you. Every time you roll the futures contracts you get shredded if there’s been any volatility. And inevitably there will be volatility.

In any event, what’s going to happen with the Dutchies is kinda similar. Let me explain with some basic maths.

Let’s get on our bicycles for a minute and pretend we’re Dutch, and we invest $1,000 into a stock.

Year 1: Because we’re geniuses, our stock goes to $2,000. Excellent! We made $1,000. Except we now owe $360 in capital gains tax. But we didn’t sell anything. We don’t have the $360. So we’re forced to sell shares to pay tax. But everyone else who has made any gain is also forced to sell too. Mass panic selling. Stock crashes to $800. We have $440 left after paying tax.

Year 2: Stock recovers to $1,200. Government: “You made $400, pay $144.” Forced selling again. Price drops to $900. Now we have $756 left.

Year 3: Stock is back down to $1,000. Government: “You made $100, pay us $36.” Actually, anyone still dumb enough to be hanging around Holland at this point is literally retarded. All the smart money has fled. Anyway, we have $964 in stock.

In total we paid $540 in taxes. Our stock is back where it started (0% gain). We only have $460 left. Congratulations. We just lost 54% on a stock that broke even.

On the other hand, the government made more money off this investment than we did — $540 — and they had a “no money down” deal.

Sticking with the topic of this theft tax, serial entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan posted the following, which I thought was interesting as I’d not considered it.

“Wealth taxes are even worse than you think. Any asset held by Californian billionaires or Dutch citizens is now at risk of experiencing forced liquidation pressure…

… Because the long run fruits of Western Keynesianism are the same as Soviet Communism, in the sense of wealth seizure and pauperization.

I mean, if you knew the future, you wouldn’t want to co-own a farm with a Russian in 1916. For similar reasons, you might not want to co-own a share of stock with Dutch national in 2026. Or with anyone in a seizure-curious jurisdiction…which unfortunately includes much of Western Europe, Canada, and Blue America.”

I have been warning for years now that the EU would impose capital controls. Please understand: they are already here.

All of the EU is a mess and difficult, but the Dutch and Germans are actually in the worst position.

Now I’m not here to lament and whinge. Complaining is both useless and unproductive. I’m here to explain that we are only just getting started. If you think this stops here — or that more doesn’t come — you are betting against hundreds of years of history.

Capitalist Exploits Insider isn’t particularly meant to be about these issues. After all, we’re fund managers buying listed equities, and I’m not here to tell you how to go about obtaining secondary residencies or anything else. These are simply intelligent steps to take and you need to go educate yourself on those aspects. Now. Because if you don’t, then reading this article after all your wealth has already been stolen is not going to serve you well.

You know what is most frustrating of all? The apathy of the citizenry. The Dutch government just declared open war on them and the response? Nothing. I don’t anticipate anything different in all the other countries mentioned which are preparing for this or something very similar. Very disappointing.

*  *  *

The warning is clear: once governments move in this direction, they rarely stop at one measure. That is why we created a free PDF special report, Clash of the Systems: Thoughts on Investing at a Unique Point in Time. Inside, you’ll see the major economic, political, and cultural trends taking shape right now, what they could mean for your wealth and freedom, and how thoughtful investors can prepare before the next round of controls arrives. Click here to get your free copy now.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 17:00

No Real People Were Polled: AI Is Now Fabricating What "The Public Thinks"

The other day Axios ran a piece that cited "findings" that a majority of people trusted their doctors and nurses. Turns out, those "findings" were completely fabricated by a company called Aaru - using AI (causing Axios to issue an editor's note and 'clarification')Aaru uses something they call "silicon sampling," where large language models (the AI) can emulate humans at a fraction of the cost and time required for traditional polling, the NY Times reports.

Silicon sampling isn’t polling. It is the outright fabrication of public opinion by machines - and major news outlets and research firms are now publishing those fabrications as legitimate findings. 

This is not an isolated slip. The technology is being embraced by some of the biggest names in media, polling, and corporate research. Gallup has partnered with the startup Simile to create thousands of AI-generated “digital twins” that stand in for real people. Ipsos is working with Stanford to pioneer synthetic data for public opinion studies. CVS, whose venture arm invested in Simile, is already using these fabricated insights to shape customer strategy. And outlets like Axios are treating the output as news.

The entire point of polling has always been authenticity - capturing what actual humans actually think (after oversampling your preferred party to make it look like as if people like Hillary Clinton).

That process is imperfect and messy. Let’s say a pollster wants to learn how many people in the United States are in favor of a certain policy measure, but the pollster ends up with a survey that includes 80 percent Republicans and only 20 percent Democrats. The pollster may think that in reality the country is closer to a 50-50 split, so the results are rebalanced to reflect that perceived reality. This means that the percentages you read as the results of polling are the output of the model, not numbers from the actual survey data.

The problem is that every model is designed with its own biases, because pollsters disagree about which variables deserve more weight. In 2016, The New York Times’s chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, ran an experiment in which he gave five pollsters the same election poll data. (That included Siena College, which conducts opinion polls for The Times and first acquired the data.)

Mr. Cohn found a 5 percent range of difference among what the five pollsters’ models returned. That range was larger than the margin of error typically associated with random sampling, meaning that the modeling assumptions were meaningfully skewing the results. This is alarming, because it suggests that pollsters can use modeling to nudge polls in a certain direction and influence public opinion itself, rather than merely to report what the public thinks.

Walter Lippmann warned a century ago that democracy depends on an accurate picture of the public will. Traditional polling, however imperfect, at least began with real responses from real citizens. It was expensive, slow, and messy precisely because humans are expensive, slow, and messy. Silicon sampling removes every trace of that mess - and with it, every trace of reality. The models are trained on past data, tuned by the biases of their creators, and prompted to spit out whatever “representative” opinions the client wants to see. The result is not public opinion. It is a mirror of the assumptions fed into the machine.

Fake Polling Also Picked Kamala Harris... 

On the eve of the 2024 election, Aaru ran a full-scale simulation that confidently projected a narrow victory for Kamala Harris. Market researchers now use these synthetic polls to decide product launches and ad campaigns. Policy shops quietly substitute AI-generated “constituent sentiment” for actual feedback. Each time a respected outlet or pollster presents these inventions as fact, they normalize the idea that fabricated data is good enough.

The consequences are already here. When headlines say “a new poll shows,” readers have no way of knowing whether real people were ever asked. Trust in institutions is eroding fast enough without handing decision-makers and journalists an unlimited supply of plausible-sounding fake data. Social science, political strategy, and market research risk becoming elaborate games of digital pretend.

So there's that...

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 16:40

Why China Might Have Pressed Iran To Compromise With The US

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The sequence that Trump threatened if no deal was reached before the expiry of his deadline would have cut China off from half of the oil that it imported by sea last year and likely set Afro-Eurasia aflame in resource wars for the indefinite future that would have derailed China’s superpower rise.

Three unnamed Iranian officials reportedly told the New York Times (NYT) that China pressed their country to compromise with the US by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and resuming talks.

When asked about whether China played such a role, Trump responded that, “I hear yes. Yes they were.”

This was followed by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning revealing that “China made its own efforts in this regard.”

Although she didn’t directly confirm the report, she didn’t outright deny it either.

Interestingly, Drop Site founder Ryan Grim noticed that the edit history of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s tweet imploring Trump to extend his deadline for destroying Iran’s civilization if a deal isn’t reached saw him originally post “*Draft - Pakistan’s PM Message on X*”. Grim wrote that “Sharif’s own staff don’t call him ‘Pakistan’s PM,’ they would just call him prime minister. The U.S. and Israel, of course, would call him ‘Pakistan’s PM.’” Trump cited his talks with Sharif when extending his deadline.

In light of the NYT’s report, Trump’s positive affirmation thereof, and Mao’s related innuendo, an alternative hypothesis is that it wasn’t the US or Israel that drafted Sharif’s tweet, but China. Regardless of whoever did, it’s reasonable that China might have indeed pressed Iran to compromise with the US, not least because it would have tremendously suffered had Trump carried through on his threat. As a reminder, he threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants, bridges, and possibly even oil infrastructure too.

In response, Iran threatened to destroy the Gulf’s, and the sequence that Trump could have catalyzed would have resulted in the region’s energy exports going offline indefinitely. China would have then suddenly lost the 48.4% of oil that it imported by sea last year, 13.4% of which came from Iran and 35% from the Gulf Kingdoms (excluding Oman whose exports are from the Arabian Sea). Although it has strategic reserves and is producing more alternative energy, that would still its economy very, very hard.

China’s superpower rise would end, while resources wars would break out all across Afro-Eurasia except in resource-rich Russia, thus destabilizing the Eastern Hemisphere for years to come as the US relatively insulates itself in “Fortress America” and divides-and-rules the other side of the world. Naturally, China would prefer to avert that dark scenario even if the lesser evil results in the end of Iran’s petroyuan experiment and perhaps also its oil exports to China. Continued Gulf exports are much more important.

It’s unrealistic to imagine that China promised to intervene in Iran’s support if the US dupes it with talks for a third time in less than a year when it won’t risk World War III over Taiwan nor in furtherance of its “no-limits” Russian strategic partner’s goals in Ukraine.

Observers can therefore only speculate what China credibly offered Iran in exchange for compromising with the US by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and resuming talks, but at the least, generous reconstruction support was probably included.

To recap, China’s interest in pressing Iran to cut a deal with the US would have stemmed from fears of the sequence that Trump threatened setting Afro-Eurasia aflame for the indefinite future, though there has yet to be any unambiguous confirmation from its side that it played such role and might never be.

Nevertheless, it’s clear that something happened close to the expiry of Trump’s deadline for the IRGC to agree to a ceasefire with the US instead of embrace martyrdom, and it’s likely connected to China.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 16:20

Stablecoin Yields Won't Harm Banks, White House Economists Say

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

A White House report found that banning yield on stablecoins would have a marginal impact on bank lending while creating clear economic downsides.

According to the Council of Economic Advisers, a three-member agency within the Executive Office of the President tasked to offer the president economic advice, moving funds from stablecoins back into bank deposits would not translate into significant new lending. Under its baseline scenario, total bank lending would increase by about $2.1 billion, roughly 0.02% of the $12 trillion loan market.

The report, published Wednesday, says that community banks would see even smaller gains. Lending at these institutions would increase by roughly $500 million, or about 0.026%.

The findings come amid an ongoing clash between banks and the crypto industry over stablecoin yields. Banking organizations, including the Independent Community Bankers of America, have warned that stablecoin yields could significantly reduce bank lending, while crypto groups have rejected the claim.

Stablecoin lending ban could cost $800 million per year

However, banning stablecoin rewards could carry a greater cost. The report estimates a net welfare loss of around $800 million per year, mainly because users would lose access to yield on stablecoins. The cost-benefit ratio is about 6.6, meaning the economic costs would far exceed any gains in lending.

“Producing lending effects in the hundreds of billions requires simultaneously assuming the stablecoin share sextuples, all reserves shift into segregated deposits, and the Federal Reserve abandons its ample-reserves framework,” the report concludes.

Portfolio effects of the yield ban. Source: White House

In July 2025, President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law. The law prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yield to holders, but third-party platforms (like exchanges) can still offer yield on stablecoins. The proposed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could close that gap by clarifying whether yield should be restricted across the board or allowed under certain conditions.

CLARITY Act nearing Senate markup hearing

The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act on July 17, 2025. In January, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott delayed a planned markup, which has yet to be rescheduled.

Last week, Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the CLARITY Act could be nearing a markup hearing in the US Senate Banking Committee, with lawmakers close to agreement on key provisions. He noted that progress hinges on resolving disagreements over stablecoin yield.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 15:45

Mexico Truckers Block Key Freight Routes In Nationwide Strike

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves,

A nationwide strike by Mexican truckers and farmers blocked major highways and freight corridors across Mexico on Monday, disrupting access to Mexico City, industrial zones and several U.S.-Mexico border crossings.

The protest, organized by the National Association of Transporters (ANTAC) and the National Front for the Rescue of the Mexican Countryside (FNRCM), included road blockades in at least 20 states and began around 7 a.m. CST, with disruptions expected to last several hours or longer in some areas.

The groups say the strike is in response to rising cargo crime, high diesel and operating costs, deteriorating road infrastructure and a lack of progress on agreements with the federal government related to highway security and extortion.

Major freight corridors affected

According to Mexican media reports, blockades were reported on several of Mexico’s most important freight routes, including:

• Mexico–Querétaro
• Mexico–Puebla
• Mexico–Pachuca
• Mexico–Cuernavaca
• Federal Highway 45 in the Bajío region
• Culiacán–Mazatlán corridor
• Guadalajara–Colima and Mexico–Guadalajara routes
• Access roads to Mexico City
• Border crossings in Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana and Mexicali

These corridors connect Mexico’s manufacturing hubs, ports and border crossings, making them critical for domestic distribution and cross-border trade.

The strike is affecting access to industrial corridors, customs facilities and toll roads, similar to protests in November 2025 that disrupted more than 40 highways and access to industrial zones and customs facilities.

Security and costs drive protests

Transport and agricultural groups say insecurity remains one of the biggest issues facing freight operators in Mexico.

Official government data shows 6,263 investigations into cargo truck robberies were opened in 2025, but industry groups estimate the true number of cargo theft incidents — including unreported cases — exceeded 16,000, with losses topping 7 billion pesos annually.

Protesters are demanding:

• Increased National Guard presence on highways
• Action against extortion and corruption at checkpoints
• Lower operating costs, including diesel
• Support programs and policy changes for agricultural producers

Farmers joining the strike say insecurity, high fuel costs and agricultural pricing pressures are hurting rural producers and transport operators alike.

Government pushes back

Mexico’s Interior Ministry said the government has held multiple meetings with transport and agricultural groups and has provided billions of pesos in support to farmers, arguing there is “no reason” for the protests and warning that blockades affect third parties and the broader economy, according to Omnia.

Still, organizers say the strike could continue if no agreements are reached, raising the risk of ongoing disruptions to supply chains and freight movement across Mexico.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 15:05

Kevin Plank's Unsellable Thoroughbred Race Farm Sees Another Deep Price Cut

Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank has once again cut the asking price on his massive thoroughbred racing farm in northern Baltimore County, Maryland, as the historic farm - once owned by the Vanderbilt family - continues to sit on the market amid a series of deep price cuts.

Plank has been winding down his sprawling real estate portfolio, offloading everything from multiple residential properties to a luxury hotel in Baltimore City in recent years. Among his crown jewels - alongside the Baltimore Peninsula - is Sagamore Farm, a 404-acre thoroughbred racing operation he has been trying to sell for years.

The latest data from multiple listing service provider MLS Bright shows that Plank likely instructed his listing agent, Christina Giffin of Monument Sotheby's International Realty, to pursue another price cut.

MLS Bright data shows Sagamore's current listing price is around $16.5 million. This represents a 15% cut from the late-2025 listing of $18.5 million and an overall decline of about 25% from the original $22 million listing in March 2025. The farm appears to have been on and off the market.

We've outlined the mounting challenges for Plank as UA's brand momentum trended downward for years, but only in recent quarters have we begun focusing on UBS analyst Jay Sole, who is attempting to call a bottom in the stock. Also, the "Warren Buffett of Canada" piled into the stock earlier this year as management raised its outlook.

Plank is still dealing with the "ghost town" of Baltimore Peninsula amid the city's declining population, which has fallen to a 100-year low under the far-left leadership of Mayor Brandon Scott. Statewide, Maryland's financial profile is deteriorating under left-wing Governor Wes Moore, with high taxes, crime, a growing fiscal deficit, rising power bills, prioritizing all things woke, significant outbound migration, and other mounting challenges. This is what you get under one-party Democratic rule of kings and queens that have ignited a fire in the state and city under backfiring DEI policies.

Plank should focus on advocating for political change in Baltimore City. At least one other billionaire is already involved in such efforts. If Plank wants his "city within a city" to thrive, negative net migration trends must reverse, and both the city and the state will need to improve their overall financial profiles. Certaintly Democrats show zero interest in fostering a thriving state. 

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 14:45

FOMC Minutes Signal Fed Saw "Dual Sided" Risks From Iran War

Since the last FOMC meeting (March 18th), a lot has happened (war, more war, and now less war), and rate-change expectations hawkishly surged, then dovishly normalized today...

And given the last 24 hours, perhaps this information is more useful now, as we return to macro-fundamentals from geopolitical chaos running markets.

The minutes, released three weeks after the meeting, underscore the Fed's dilemma as it seeks to fill its congressional mandates of low inflation and maximum employment.

Fed officials wrestled with starkly differing scenarios for the US economy following the outbreak of the Iran war, including one that called for interest-rate cuts and another that would require raising rates.

On one side, Fed officials acknowledged that the Iran conflict could also force households to cut back spending to offset higher gas prices, which would slow growth and raise unemployment.

"...most participants raised the concern that a protracted conflict in the Middle East could lead to a further softening in labor market conditions, which could warrant additional rate cuts," according to the minutes of the meeting.

But on the other side:

"...many participants pointed to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices, which could call for rate increases."

And at the same time, many policymakers highlighted the risk to inflation that might ultimately warrant rate increases.

"Partly as a result of these factors, the vast majority of participants noted that progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective could be slower than previously expected," according to the minutes.

The record of the meeting also showed that a growing number of officials urged their colleagues to consider language in the committee’s statement raising the scenario of hiking interest rates under certain conditions.

“Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the committee’s future interest-rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels,” the minutes said.

As a reminder, The Fed kept its key rate unchanged at about 3.6% with Powell saying that another reduction depended on underlying inflation cooling steadily this year:

"If we don’t see that progress then you won’t see the rate cut,” he said then.

Will the ceasefire slow inflation or is the damage already done and yet to flow through global supply chains?

Read the full Minutes below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 14:10

Trader Makes $23 Million In One Day With Massive S&P Call Purchase Hours Before Ceasefire

A trader who made a large bet on a stocks rocketing in the coming weeks is up about $23 million in paper profit today, according to Bloomberg.

The unknown trader spent $12 million premium on 6800 lots of 6950 S&P 500 Index Options (SPX) calls for May 8 expiry, when the index was at 6556.21; the trade was executed around 10:20 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, just hours before Trump's announcement of a 2-week ceasefire which sent stocks soaring. 

The trade was an “example of upside chasing on hopes of an imminent peace deal”, said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives intelligence, in an email Tuesday. 

Following the ceasefire deal last night, stocks surged, with the long SPX 6950 position now trading at $50, Bloomberg pricing data indicates.

That makes the position worth $35 million as of noon on April 8, with the S&P 500 at 6773, or a $23 million profit net of the premium paid. 

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 14:00

The Apple AI Strategy: Discipline Over Hype

Authored by Michael Lebowtiz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash. Given the massive growth in AI investments, as shown in the graphs below, executives of leading companies at the forefront of AI development must be ecstatic about the prospect of AI significantly boosting their bottom lines.

The puzzling question, however, is why Apple isn’t following suit. Or could they be taking a different approach to winning the AI arms race?

Apple Avoids The AI Spending Boom

Apple is one of the world’s most profitable companies. Over the last four quarters, they reported over $400 billion in annual revenue and nearly $100 billion of free cash flow. Furthermore, the company holds $65 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $77 billion in marketable securities.  The bottom line is that Apple can easily self-fund AI innovation on a massive scale, as its competitors are doing. Yet it hasn’t.

Rather than mimicking its peers, Apple appears content to let the AI landscape mature before committing significant capital. Restraint may seem like complacency or even negligence. However, Apple has a long and extremely successful history of deploying capital at the right time; when the profit outlook is clear, the technology is established, and the customer value proposition is well-defined.

This approach may be frustrating for Apple shareholders in the short term, but history and the chart below, comparing Apple to the S&P 500, suggest it has served them extremely well.

Apple’s Historical Playbook

Apple has rarely been first to introduce a new product. It was not the first personal computer company, the first smartphone maker, or the first to launch wireless earbuds, smartwatches, or VR headsets. In nearly every case, Apple waited while other companies experimented and helped define the product and the market.

Apple waited to understand what consumers wanted in a product.  Only after the uses of a new product became obvious and consumer demand was proven did Apple step in with well-designed products that emphasized reliability, usability, and profitability. Their goal has always been not to be the biggest producer of a product but to be the best. In most cases, they have lived up to that lofty goal.

The timeline below shows the various smartphones that preceded Apple’s iPhone. Given the smartphone landscape today and the fate of the products that preceded the iPhone, it’s fair to say that Apple’s patience was well rewarded.

Discipline May Win The AI Game

Today’s generative AI ecosystem is still in its experimental phase. Training costs are enormous, inference costs remain high, and business models are largely unproven. Many AI products may be impressive, but have produced limited revenue.

Instead of competing with the likes of Microsoft, Meta, and Google, Apple appears to be integrating AI incrementally. They are embedding AI into existing hardware, operating systems, and services rather than creating standalone, capital-intensive platforms. This allows its products to stay competitive without fundamentally altering its cost structure.

This approach takes Apple out of the AI limelight, which has at times weighed on the stock price.

 

Waiting For Clarity

There are good reasons to wait for AI to better define itself before Apple spends hundreds of billions on strategies that may not prove profitable. For example:

• Monetization: While AI can clearly improve productivity and user engagement, it remains unclear how much consumers are willing to pay for it directly.

• Legal/regulatory: Data privacy, intellectual property disputes, model accountability, and regulatory limitations are evolving areas of law and public policy. Apple, whose brand is closely tied to trust and privacy, could lose more than most companies from missteps in these areas.

• Capital flexibility: By not locking itself into massive investments today, Apple retains the capital flexibility to invest rapidly once AI technology better defines itself and the economics become more apparent.

The Long View

For the impatient investor or trader, Apple’s approach probably feels underwhelming, especially amongst the daily headlines proclaiming AI innovation and trillion-dollar opportunities. But, for investors with patience, history suggests that Apple’s greatest successes have come not from being first, but from entering markets when technology, consumer readiness, and profitability align.

In our article, AI Bubble: History Says Caution Is Warranted, we discussed how many game-changing innovations, such as AI, are often accompanied by a financial bubble. Furthermore, for understanding Apple’s AI strategy, it has historically been far from certain that the front-runners, initially touted as the biggest beneficiaries of the innovation, will be the long-term winners.  To wit:

In 1999, few, if any, investors had ever heard of Google. The term for an internet search, “Googling,” was not yet a thing. Today, Google has a 90+% share of the search engine volume, and many of its early competitors no longer exist. 

Might Apple be taking a page out of Google’s playbook and waiting in the weeds for the AI industry to mature?

Might Apple be the next Google?

Summary

In the early stages of a technology buildout, infrastructure tends to capture the most value. This time appears similar, with the chipmaker Nvidia posting extraordinary returns and investors fawning over the big data center players like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google. However, over time, value typically migrates toward the technology’s application. Understanding where we are in that migration from infrastructure to application is important.

In our opening section, we asked if Apple executives share the same enthusiasm for AI as their chief competitors. The answer may be that Apple executives understand something their peers do not; the race rarely goes to whoever is first out of the gate.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/08/2026 - 13:40