Why Oil Markets Could Face A Generational Shock This Summer If US-Iran Talks Fail

President Trump is signaling "make a good deal" or walk away with no deal at all.

Overnight hostilities around the Hormuz maritime chokepoint highlight just how fragile the ceasefire remains as Washington and Tehran try to solidify a peace deal to end the conflict.

The timing of a peace deal is very important because, as we have warned readers, a no-deal scenario would collide with a deteriorating oil-supply backdrop by summer, when global buffers and floating storage begin to run down, and SPR releases become less effective in offsetting lost supply from the Gulf region.

Building on UBS analyst Arend Kapteyn's note from Friday titled "When The Oil Buffers Run Out," Brookings' Robin Brooks and Ben Harris outline in a note that oil markets could face a massive price shock by mid-July as temporary supply buffers run dry.

There appears to be consensus building among Wall Street analysts at Goldman, JPMorgan, UBS, and many other desks that if the Hormuz chokepoint is not reopened in the near term, an energy cliff may materialize in early summer.

The Brookings analysts say crude prices have so far been depressed by three factors: trade rerouting, inventory drawdowns, and market expectations that the U.S.-Iran war would end quickly.

"The bottom line is that the supply shortfall will build in the coming months as temporary buffers are depleted. And if markets grow increasingly pessimistic over an eventual resolution to the impasse in the strait, oil prices may rise materially higher," the Brookings analysts said.

However, they warned that the three factors capping crude prices are fading. Russian floating stocks are likely depleted by the end of April; Iranian floating stocks are expected to be gone by the end of May; and the IEA emergency oil release is projected to be exhausted by July 9.

They continued, "It is fair to say that the scale of the supply shortfall is now well-known to markets. But the timeline on which temporary buffers run out and how this interacts with prices is of critical importance."

"This interaction means non-linear outcomes in prices—in other words, sharp price spikes—are possible the longer this conflict is expected to take. The potential for non-linear outcomes grows the longer oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely encumbered," the analysts ended the note.

Shifting back to UBS analyst Kapteyn's note last week on oil buffers, he warned, "Oil prices can move much higher once inventories are depleted."

He continued:

This week saw the largest-ever drawdown in US oil inventories since records began in 1982: commercial inventories and the SPR combined fell by 17.8mb. These stock draws help explain why—despite nearly three months of supply shortfalls from the Middle East—oil is still trading "only" around $105/bbl.

Oil prices and volumes are linked by the price elasticity of demand. A simple relationship allows us to approximate price outcomes under different supply disruptions and degrees of demand destruction:

The oil team estimates that the net supply loss via the Strait of Hormuz is around 9mb/d after SPR releases, equivalent to a ~9% disruption.

At $105/bbl, this implies demand elasticity of roughly –0.2: a 1% increase in prices reduces demand by 0.2% (see chart). Without SPR releases, the supply shock would be closer to 12%, implying a price nearer $123/bbl.

There are two ways in which oil prices could increase much more:

• First, if inventories are depleted they can no longer buffer the supply shortfall.
• Second, as the "easy" adjustments in consumption and production are exhausted, demand becomes less responsive to higher prices.

The chart highlights some scary combinations.

For instance, if the global supply shortfall were 14% then even with the current demand elasticity, oil should be trading closer to $140/bbl. If the demand elasticity was 0.15 rather than 0.2, the implied oil price would be $208/bbl, and if the demand elasticity was 0.1 prices would approach $372/bbl.

What we are outlining here is a growing consensus across Wall Street: a no-deal outcome between Washington and Tehran would represent a severe risk for energy markets, with the critical point of no return by early summer. That is when the temporary buffers suppressing crude prices, including emergency stockpile releases, floating storage, rerouted flows, and hopes for a diplomatic off-ramp, begin to lose effectiveness. Once those offsets are exhausted, the market would likely be forced to slap a new war risk premium more aggressively, removing the current ceiling on Brent and WTI.

JPMorgan analysts recently warned about this ...

... the clock is ticking for Washington and Tehran to get a deal done or risk chaos far beyond energy markets that would spill over into shipping, then the global economy.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 12:20

The Fed Should Be Concerned: Job Market Vibes Vs Data

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

The Job Market – Vibes vs Data

It seems like we are on the cusp of an agreement with Iran. We will help analyze the market implications in a SITREP if and when the details are released.

In the meantime, the one question that seems to puzzle everyone, is what is the state of the job market?

Yes, there are all sorts of questions around AI, the AI and data center spend, affordability, and inflation, but the state of the job market seems to be the most puzzling of late.

The juxtaposition of daily discussions about no hiring, and fears of AI job losses, versus some stellar headline data.

Record low consumer sentiment versus ongoing spending remaining strong.

Mixed (at worst) evidence of delinquencies. There is little (that I could find) evidence of a broad-based increase in delinquencies. If you squint hard, you can see evidence of pressure on the lower income part of the population, but as of now, that’s about it.

Unemployment Rate

The last two headline numbers (from the Establishment Survey), as of now (before revisions), were 185k and 115k.Big numbers, an obvious A+ in terms of grading.

While the headline is important, for most of the country, within days of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, we started to talk less about the headline jobs and more about the unemployment rate. So that seems like a good starting point for exploring the jobs data.

We used the “official” titles from Bloomberg for the Unemployment rate (blue) and the Underemployment rate (black).

The unemployment rate has been trending down and it is close to its best level in 2 years. Let’s give the unemployment rate a grade of A- (though that feels a bit stingy).

The underemployment rate is a broader definition of unemployment. It captures people stuck in part-time, low-paying, or skill-mismatched jobs. The skill-mismatched subcategory (from AI) is the most interesting to me. Is that evidence of AI taking good entry level professional jobs?

The underemployment rate came down early this year, but from the highest levels in the past 5 years. It has been trending higher and is well above the 5-year average. I’d give underemployment a B- grade (though that feels a bit generous).

The unemployment rate is based on the Household Survey.

There are a few things that stand out:

• The gap higher for both the size of the workforce and those employed, that occurred as of December of 2024, appears to be part of annual revisions. It stands out, but is largely noise.

• The size of the labor force has not shrunk much since President Trump took office. I honestly have no idea how many illegal workers show up in the data, or whether they don’t show up in the data. Given the crackdown on illegal workers, I bet most of those jobs never showed up in the data (again, I will admit to being confused how people working illegally were counted in the jobs data, but I’m told by people much more into the weeds on this stuff, that it happens). In any case, I was a bit surprised by the labor force data in the past year remaining almost stable.

• Both the size of the labor force and the number working has shrunk in 2026! I don’t see any way to make fewer workers sound good.

  • The Establishment Survey has jobs of 160k for Jan, -156k for Feb, 185k for March, and 116k for April. Pretty darn good.

  • The Household Survey has -895k in Jan (adjustments included), -185k for Feb, -64k for March, and -226k for April. Even ignoring January, the last 3 months have been awful.

• While the Household Survey is wildly inaccurate, we seem to accept it for the unemployment rate, so why don’t we spend any time looking at it for signs regarding the job market. Again, just weird that it is deemed so “useless” for jobs, but is A OK for determining the unemployment rate? If we used the change in Establishment jobs the past few months, we’d probably be under 4% - which would be amazing!

• The final most salient point in how I think about these two data series, is that they tend to converge over time. They can deviate, often for months, but they tend to converge which tells me that we are probably headed for some weaker headline prints in the coming months.

For those of you not familiar with how I think about the two surveys used for jobs data:

• The Establishment Survey is largely inaccurate, and the Household Survey is wildly inaccurate! From the BLS the NFP data is +/- 122k at the 90% confidence level. For the Household it is +/- 676k at the 90% confidence level! (I used AI for that data, take it with a grain of salt, but you can dig deeper on the BLS site – starting with Employment Situation Technical Note).

  • Imagine reporting your quarterly returns as we made somewhere between losing $1 billion and making $5 billion, but we won’t really know for at least a year.

  • When you really think about the margin of error, it seems almost insane how many really smart people are forced to treat something that amounts to at best, a kind of, maybe reasonable, rough guess as to the current situation as gospel truth. The BLS takes the time to point out that a reading of +50k, gives a 90% confidence that the actual number of jobs is between -72k and +172k (meaning 10% of the time, like once a year, it is likely to be off by more than that!).

I’m almost disgusted with myself (even more than usual) that I am going to try and make a point using data that is just so bizarre!

But the Household Survey is a solid D. If there is any convergence in the two different jobs totals, then we should expect some pain in the Establishment Survey (i.e., the headline number).

I am not sure what to make of the Labor Force Participation Rate (hence the color purple rather than green or red).

• Lower participation rates can occur when times are good. Families are making so much money that a member of the family can step out of the labor force. Maybe stock market gains are so great that you don’t need to work? Overtime pay is so good, one member can step back?

• Lower participation rates can occur when times are bad. People get so frustrated with being able to find work, they just give up and drop out of the pool of people trying to get work.

It’s all a bit of a guess, but I suspect the labor force participation is a negative signal.

I continue to believe that the JOLTs data overstates jobs available (it doesn’t fully capture how many ghost jobs are out there, how many ads are on employment websites that are stale or weren’t removed, etc.).

Even if I’m not correct on my assumption that it is overstated, the jobs available picture deteriorated over the past several years and hasn’t really improved. That would provide some support that labor force participation is dropping due to frustration with the ability to find a job.

My “favorite” piece of data is the QUIT data. I like it because it “crowd sourced.” It is one of the few pieces of data where we get to see what the average worker is thinking. People tend to QUIT when they know they can find another job easily! People tend to stay in jobs, even ones they don’t like, until they find a better job, in a tough labor market. That seems to fit.

I don’t like the HIRE rate quite as much, but it is difficult to fake. It did tick higher recently (I put some green on the chart) but it is NOT showing robust hiring.

This whole section earns a C.

Uber Eats or Law School

According to AI “Law school applications have surged roughly 15% to 33%!”

Nothing says, I’m worried about AI, so I should go to law school, because certainly AI won’t affect the need for junior lawyers.

We tend to see law school applications spike when it is difficult for college graduates to get jobs. We saw this with the GFC. Then, at least, it made more sense. Law school is a great place to hide out for a few years and wind up with a pretty good job if you can do well. But right now? If it is a bad time to graduate from college, I am not sure that in 3 years (as AI improves) it is going to be a great time to graduate from law school. I could be wrong, but off hand, becoming a lawyer “suddenly” (see the spike in applications) seems to be a traditional response in a world that is rapidly evolving.

All of which brings me to my least favorite part of the jobs data – the birth/death model!

I know that not all of the adjustment passes through to the establishment number. But I still think it is useful to think about this number.

My contention is, and remains that:

• At one time people applied for an EIN (Employment Identification Number) because they were creating a real business. Hire a couple of people and make a go of it.

• I believe that with the gig economy people apply for an EIN when they are looking for a side hustle to make some extra money. One client this past week told me that one of the fintech firms provides basically one click functionality to create an LLC and get an EIN. For those with rental properties, get an EIN for each one? For more sophisticated participants get one for Uber, Lyft, etc.?

The gig economy has become a major way to supplement income. With more tools making it easier to run gig jobs as businesses, more will do it. I believe the Big Beautiful Tax Bill provides some benefits to those running their gig businesses as such.

I think that the number of jobs created for each EIN application is less than 1 (many are already working, so just adding another enterprise to their toolkit), hence the birth/death model methodology massively overstates jobs.

• Given the large annual job revisions we’ve been getting, I think there is a very strong case, that overstatement of jobs during the course of the year via the birth/death adjustment is the prime culprit.

This year’s birth/death model seems bizarrely similar to last year’s (and the year before):

• -61k in Jan 2026 vs -105k in Jan 2025 vs -121k in Jan 2024.

• 90k vs 136k vs 151k in Feb, -47k vs -33k vs -21k in March, and 391k vs 393k vs 363k in April.

We have seen massive downward annual revisions. There has been work done blaming much of it on how the birth/death model works. Since we are repeating the pattern in the data month by month, maybe we can assume we will once again be told at the end of the year that the actual jobs were a lot worse than reported?

This section isn’t particularly “damning” but I find it hard to see how it supports anyone arguing that the labor market is strong!

Where The Jobs Are

The first 4 months of the year have added 304k jobs to the economy (the Establishment data as of today).

221k jobs have been added in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry.

73% of jobs have been added in one industry. Yes, a large and vital industry, but that seems like a lot.

• Is some of this related to programs enabling you to get paid to take care of a family member? I think those are great programs, but is that job creation in the way we think of job creation?

This sector doesn’t scream “growth.” If anything, it at least whispers “affordability” as for most of us, healthcare is an expense and one that I’ve seen do nothing but go up (despite how it is calculated for CPI).

The US CPI Urban Consumer Medical Health Insurance City Average has declined 22% since the start of 2021! I know they follow some calculation, but whatever the calculation is, it doesn’t reflect the reality of what employees and employers face on the health insurance premium front.

Yet another reason, that the AFFORDABILITY issue is bigger and more painful than the CPI/Inflation issue. But that rant, is a rant for another day.

Bottom Line

There seems to be, at first blush, an inconsistency between the “vibe” on jobs and the published data.

I think that inconsistency goes away if we broaden what official data we look at.

The Fed should be concerned about jobs. At the moment they aren’t, but they should be.

I would like to see a lot more jobs being created in the ProSec™ industries, than we’ve seen of late. Maybe, if we can move beyond the Iran war, the admin will provide even more support, more quickly to these crucial industries! They are working on it as you read this, but if the President is able to direct even more attention to this, it would help.

One last word on AI and jobs. We don’t know what it does for jobs going forward, but the AI and data center buildout is creating jobs right now! We can (and will) debate the outlook for jobs as AI improves and becomes more prevalent, but the buildout does create a lot of jobs – not just in the construction, but also in the power generation and other adjacent businesses.

Without the AI and data center spend, we’d have even more concerns about the current job market, but that spend looks set to continue, which will help, and maybe buy us the time to get ProSec™ more fully ramped up!

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 12:00

NANO Nuclear Soars As It Turns Revenue-Generating With Strategic Acquisition

NANO Nuclear announced the acquisition of Secured Transportation Services, instantly converting itself from a pre-revenue developer into a revenue-generating business with in-house secure transport capabilities for nuclear materials.

With the $13 million acquisition of Secured Transportation Services - a nuclear logistics, transportation and services company specializing in the secure transport of radioactive and nuclear materials - NANO continues to vertically integrate itself into what will soon be the leading provider of turnkey nuclear energy solutions to the AI supercycle. Secured Transportation Services generated a profit of about $1.3 million in the twelve months ended Dec. 31, 2025. 

As NANO founder and Chairman Jay Yu put it: “NNE goes from pre-revenue to revenue generating overnight with [this] acquisition.”

Secured Transportation Services provides Nano Nuclear with the logistical infrastructure needed to vertically integrate the nuclear supply chain.

This move adds critical logistics infrastructure to NANO’s portfolio of portable microreactors and advanced fuel fabrication efforts. Secured Transportation Services brings established operations and regulatory know-how for moving sensitive nuclear cargo.

The capability vertically integrates the supply chain and removes a major execution bottleneck for future deployments.

We’ve tracked NANO’s aggressive buildout for months: the modular reactor maker, which according to many is one of the few that carries the promise of powering the AI revolution at a realistic cost, has pushed forward on its microreactor designs and fuel cycle ambitions. This latest deal fits the pattern: rapid, targeted acquisitions that assemble a full-stack nuclear platform.

The company is also demonstrating tangible progress in the deployment of their first-of-a-kind microreactor with the recent acceptance and docketing of their construction permit for the Kronos project in Illinois.

The acquisition also positions NNE to serve the surging power demand from AI data centers and remote industrial sites. Secure, reliable transport of fuel and components becomes a competitive moat as deployment timelines compress.

With this single move, NANO Nuclear has shifted from concept-stage to cash-flowing operations.

Shares of the nuclear micro modular reactor and technology company rose 13% to $29.98 on Tuesday. Shares are up 25% year to date, but they have a long way to go to catch up to their October all time highs north of $60. 

Despite the streak of favorable news in recent months, the nuclear sector has been unduly punished as the market's cash rotation has benefited data centers "picks and shovels" stocks, while ignoring the companies which are expected to power the entire AI revolution. NANO continues to be one of the most shorted names in the space, with 24% of the float shorted.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 11:25

Thomas Massie Files To Run In 2028 After Losing Primary

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has filed paperwork to run again in 2028, just days after losing the Republican primary for the Kentucky House seat he has held for more than a decade.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) speaks during a Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee Second Amendment hearing in Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington on April 15, 2026. Luke Johnson/Getty Images

The May 25 filing with the Federal Election Commission lists Massie, 55, as a Republican candidate for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District. Massie said the move allows him to keep raising money for his political operation while he decides what comes next.

"This allows me to raise funds to continue my political operations supporting my position as a current office holder and as a potential candidate for federal office," Massie wrote in a post on X. "I haven't made a final decision about which office to seek, if I run."

I filed with FEC for the 2028 House race.

This allows me to raise funds to continue my political operations supporting my position as a current office holder and as a potential candidate for federal office.

I haven’t made a final decision about which office to seek, if I run. pic.twitter.com/heHxDnu31o

— Thomas Massie for Congress (@MassieforKY) May 25, 2026

The filing also comes after Massie drew the ire of President Donald Trump, who opposed him over several policy disputes and Massie's 2025 vote against the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Trump cannot run for reelection in 2028.

Trump endorsed former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who defeated Massie in the recent Republican primary for the seat Massie currently holds. Massie had taken about 76 percent of the primary vote and 99.6 percent of the general election vote in 2024.

As The Epoch Times notes further, during his concession speech, some of Massie's supporters chanted "2028." He asked whether they wanted him to run for Congress again. They said no, then began chanting "president."

"All right, well you've made a compelling argument, ... but I need a medical margarita right now, and we'll talk about it later," Massie said.

During an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press" over the weekend, Massie said he would not rule out running for president or county commissioner in 2028.

"I will not rule out anything, and right now I'm not going to rule in anything," he said.

"Look, I've spent the last five days on my farm with my grandkids, and my cattle and my peach trees, and it's a pretty nice life. I don't know if I want to screw that up again. I've been in Congress 14 years, fighting. Every hour that passes, I get decompressed a little bit more. It's like coming up from the bottom of the ocean. And I'll take some time and decide what's next. But I think I will stay engaged in some way or shape. Maybe it's from the outside. I've been exposing what's going on in Washington, D.C. for years and I'll keep doing it."

Massie has served in the House since 2012.

He said on May 22 that he would not be requesting a recount in his race, writing in a May 22 post on X that he does not think he lost due to fraudulent votes, mail-in ballots, or mistabulated results.

"There's a quiet all-out war for the future of our country," he said. "Let us not misdirect our precious resources."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 11:00

AI Startup Says It Will Pay People $2,000 A Month to Masturbate... Yes, Really

Authored by Jason Nelson via Decrypt.co,

• Joi AI is hiring 10 “masturbation consultants” at $2,000 for a month to test an AI-guided masturbation feature and document its effects on stress, sleep, mood, and confidence.

• The feature uses mood-matched AI voice sessions, and consultants would submit written feedback and questionnaires directly to the company.

• Joi AI says the campaign is intended to collect product feedback while drawing attention to AI’s growing role in sexual wellness and digital intimacy.

Joi AI says it will pay people $2,000 a month to masturbate. Yes, you read that right.

The AI companion startup is hiring 10 “masturbation consultants” to test a feature called Daily Guided Masturbation, which uses mood-matched AI voice sessions to guide users through the experience. Participants would document how regular use affects stress, sleep quality, mood, and confidence. The four-week role is open to adults 18 and older in the U.S. and the U.K.

“The role is real, and we’ve had great responses since the posting went live,” Joi AI Head of Brand and Communication Julie Levin told Decrypt.

we’re hiring 10 Masturbation Consultants

$2,000/month to test our new Daily Guided Masturbation feature and document the effects on stress, sleep and mood

yes it’s real
yes you get paid

— Joi AI (@joi___ai) May 18, 2026

The listing describes ideal candidates as “articulate, observant, and impossible to blush”—people who can describe sensations “better than a sommelier describes a wine.” The posting also promises flexible scheduling, and “the most interesting ‘What do you do for a living?’ answer at any party.”

Joi AI is an online platform that includes AI-generated avatars, voice interactions, and personalized chat experiences built around companionship and intimacy. Joi AI describes the new consultant role as structured product testing tied directly to its new feature.

“The role involves testing and giving feedback on the mood-matched AI voice-guided sessions, and providing feedback on the overall user experience,” Levin told Decrypt.

According to Levin, participants complete guided sessions and submit written questionnaires directly to the Joi AI team. Sample prompts ask whether the voice matched the selected mood, how immersive the session felt, and whether lags or pauses disrupted the experience.

The listing comes as platforms including Replika and Character.AI have built large user bases around AI-driven relationships and conversational experiences. Joi AI operates primarily through its website rather than major app stores. Levin said the company has more than 1 million monthly active users worldwide and millions of interactions each month, but declined to disclose total download figures.

Unlike AI assistants like Alexa or Siri, designed to help with everyday tasks, Joi AI operates in a smaller corner of that market focused on sexual exploration, fantasy, and digital intimacy. The company rebranded from EVA AI in April 2025, during what it described as its first Dating Stress Awareness Day campaign.

“Joi AI is focused on making AI companionship more immersive, personalized, and emotionally responsive,” Levin said. “We’re innovating features like Daily Guided Masturbation to make AI a more intuitive part of people’s everyday wellness routines, not just a novelty experience.”

The hiring push also comes as studies suggest AI companion use is becoming more common among people already in relationships, often without their partner’s knowledge. A new report from the Wheatley Institute at Brigham Young University and the Institute for Family Studies found that among dating, engaged, and married young adults who regularly used AI romantic companions, nearly 3 in 10 said their real-life partner did not know about it.

AI companion platforms are also facing growing legal scrutiny, including lawsuits alleging psychological harm to minors and deceptive chatbot behavior. Examples include a settled case against Character.AI over a Florida teen’s suicide and a separate lawsuit from Pennsylvania accusing the company of allowing a chatbot to pose as a licensed psychiatrist.

Levin said the hiring campaign was intended to generate discussion as well as recruit testers.

“It was both,” Levin said. “We are genuinely looking for people who can provide thoughtful feedback in this category, but the campaign was also designed to spark conversation around how people are increasingly using AI for masturbation as a healthy, relaxing habit.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 10:40

Conference Board Consumer Expectations Hit YTD Highs, Inflation Fears Dip In May

With war (and rising gas prices) now fully embedded in respondents' minds (along with record high stock prices), it is perhaps not entirely surprising that The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence dipped in May (but was better than expected).

The headline index dipped 0.7 points to 93.1 in May, down from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April.

The Present Situation Index - based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions - retreated by 3.2 points to 121.2.

The Expectations Index - based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions - rose by 1.0 points to 74.4 - the highest since Dec 2025.

Source: Bloomberg

“Consumer confidence edged downward in May as the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East intensified,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and the current labor market were moderately less positive compared to last month. This was somewhat offset by modest improvements in consumers’ expectations for business conditions and the labor market six months from now. Meanwhile, income expectations eased in May, as those anticipating less income rose.”

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations ticked downward but remained elevated.

The overall trend of the labor market remains weaker...

Among age groups, confidence ticked up for consumers aged 35-54, but trended downward for older and younger consumers, both month-over-month and on a six-month moving average basis.

By income, confidence among higher income groups trended upward on a six-month moving average basis.

By generation, confidence improved for the Silent Generation (the oldest group) but was little changed or lower among other generations.

By political affiliation, Republicans remained the most optimistic, while Independents were the only group that saw confidence tick up on a month-over-month basis.

Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in May. References to prices and oil and gas increased in frequency for a second consecutive month, while mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict remained elevated—likely signaling consumers’ underlying concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East on their wallets.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 10:11

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: PCE, Durables, Consumer Confidence And Fed Speakers

SSDD: with stocks set to hit new record highs, the hope this morning once again is that the days may be numbered for the war in Iran, with momentum building since the start of the weekend that a deal could be in the works. Brent, which ended last week at $103.54/bbl, is this morning trading at $97.87/bbl, around -5.48% lower than Friday’s close. However, Brent had got as low as $96.02 late yesterday before news overnight that US and Israeli jets conducted fresh strikes in Southern Iran, hitting missile launch sites and mine-laying boats. These actions were described as "defensive" and not an end to the ceasefire with Iran.

Net net, optimism is still elevated that an agreement can be made to end the war. We have been here before, of course, but it has felt for some time that the move towards peace has been three steps forward and one or two back. It is now 48 days since the main kinetic encounters, and according to DB's Jim Reid, such a prolonged truce and ceasefire would not have held if the US genuinely wanted to continue strikes, unless there was absolutely no alternative. Last night's targeted action is clearly a warning shot that the ceasefire is fragile though, so we will have to see what the next few days of negotiations bring.

Moving on to the rest of this week, inflation once again dominates with important price data across the US, Europe and Japan. In the US, the clear focal point is Thursday’s April personal income and spending report (Thursday), which contains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. DB economists expect core PCE inflation at around +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from March, with the year-on-year rate edging higher. This release matters not just for the inflation print itself, but for how it fits with the broader narrative of sticky services inflation and resilient demand.

On the real economy side of the same report (Thursday), economists expect momentum to cool after a very strong March, with personal consumption growth slowing back to around +0.3% month-on-month and personal income rising by roughly +0.4%. This comes after a hawkish speech from Waller on Friday. He discussed how the recent labor market and inflation data had caused him to reevaluate the balance of risks with inflation becoming the “driving force” behind monetary policy in the near term. In particular, he noted that he would support changing language in the statement to remove the easing bias and make it clear that “a rate cut is no more likely in the future than a rate increase”. In light of this there is a lot of Fedspeak to watch this week. You can see a list in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual but keep an eye on Minneapolis’s Kashkari (today) and Dallas’s Logan (tomorrow), both of whom had dissented against the easing bias in the April statement. They are likely to repeat their view that the stance of monetary policy should be more balanced, particularly as inflation risks remain front of mind.

Staying with the Fed, last Friday, DB's Chief US economist, Matt Luzzetti, wrote an interesting piece entitled “overinsured” where he discusses how the Fed has delivered 175bps of rate cuts in this cycle even as inflation has remained well above target, framing the last round as “insurance” or “risk management” cuts in response to elevated downside labor market risks. Matt suggests that relative to a set of standard policy rules, the first set of cuts in 2024 was appropriate. But following the second set last year, and the recent acceleration of inflation, the fed funds rate is now significantly below all policy rule settings. This finding is robust to different plausible estimates of r-star and the use of economic forecasts instead of current inflation and unemployment in the policy rules. 

Beyond PCE, Thursday also brings durable goods orders (Thursday), where our economists look for a modest headline increase consistent with steady but unspectacular capital spending momentum. Earlier in the week, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index (tomorrow) is expected to edge lower, potentially reflecting the cumulative impact of higher rates and policy uncertainty. Weekly initial jobless claims (Thursday) remain an important high-frequency signal on labor market conditions, although holiday effects may add some volatility.

In Europe, attention turns to the May flash inflation prints at the end of the week, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all reporting on Friday, ahead of the Eurozone aggregate the following week. DB economists expect inflation to remain above target across the region. Alongside the data, the ECB publishes the account of its April meeting (Thursday) and its Financial Stability Review (Wednesday), offering further insight into how policymakers are balancing lingering inflation pressures against softer growth and financial stability considerations.

In Asia, Japan is the key focus. Friday’s Tokyo CPI (Friday) will provide an early read on national inflation trends, alongside April industrial production and retail sales (Friday). Our economists expect inflation measures to firm modestly, underscoring that price pressures remain present even as activity data stay mixed. Elsewhere, China releases industrial profits (tomorrow), Australia publishes its April CPI (Wednesday), and the RBNZ announces its latest policy decision (tomorrow), where most economists expect the cash rate to be left unchanged.

On the corporate side, earnings highlights include US tech names such as Dell, Marvell and Salesforce, alongside consumer-facing firms including Costco and Dollar Tree, with most results clustered around mid-to-late week.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Tuesday May 26

• Data: US May Conference Board consumer confidence index, May Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, April Chicago Fed national activity index, March FHFA house price index, Q1 house price purchase index, France April retail sales
• Central banks: ECB’s Sleijpen speaks
• Earnings: AutoZone, Zscaler
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)

Wednesday May 27

• Data: US May Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, China April industrial profits, Japan April PPI services, France May consumer confidence, Italy March industrial sales, EU27 April new car registrations, Australia April CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Kashkari, Logan and Cook speak, ECB Financial Stability Review, RBNZ decision
• Earnings: Marvell, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), 5-yr Notes ($70bn)

Thursday May 28

• Data: US April PCE, personal income, spending, durable goods orders, new home sales, initial jobless claims, France April PPI, Italy May consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, April PPI, Eurozone May economic confidence, Canada Q1 current account balance, Norway Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Jefferson, Goolsbee, Musalem and Williams speak, ECB’s account of the April decision, ECB’s Lane, Cipollone and Schnabel speak, BoE’s Lombardelli and Breeden speak, BoC Financial Stability Report
• Earnings: Costco, Dell, Autodesk, SSE, MongoDB, Dollar Tree
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Friday May 29

• Data: US April advance goods trade balance, retail inventories, wholesale inventories, May MNI Chicago PMI, UK May Lloyds Business Barometer, Japan May Tokyo CPI, consumer confidence index, April jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, Germany May CPI, unemployment claims rate, France May CPI, April consumer spending, Q1 total payrolls, Italy May CPI, April unemployment rate, Canada Q1 GDP, Sweden Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Daly, Bowman and Paulson speak, ECB’s Panetta, Radev and Muller speak, BoE’s Bailey speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, the economic data releases this week are the durable goods report and the PCE inflation report on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Vice Chair Jefferson and Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman; Governors Cook and Waller; and Presidents Goolsbee, Logan, Williams, Musalem, Barkin, Schmid, Paulson, and Daly

Tuesday, May 26 

• 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, March (consensus +0.1%, last flat)
• 09:00 AM Case-Shiller home price index, March (GS -0.3%, consensus -0.1%, last -0.1%) 
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, May (GS 91.5, consensus 92.0, last 92.8)
• 10:00 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, May (consensus flat, last -2.3)

Wednesday, May 27 

• 04:00 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will take part in a panel on monetary policy at an event hosted by the Bank of Japan. Text is expected. In a statement explaining her dissent from the implicit easing bias in the April FOMC’s post-meeting statement, Logan said she was “increasingly concerned about how long it will take inflation to return all the way to the FOMC’s 2 percent target.” Logan stressed that “PCE inflation has exceeded 2 percent for more than five years” and that “even before recent increases in the prices of energy and other commodities, [measures of inflation that strip out extreme price changes or categories where prices are more volatile] had been running meaningfully above 2 percent.” In addition, she noted that “the conflict in the Middle East raises the prospect of prolonged or repeated supply disruptions that could create further inflationary pressures.”
• 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, May (consensus +4, last +3)
• 03:55 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech on AI, the economy, and the financial system at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)’s Policy Forum. Text and moderated Q&A are expected.
• 08:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will deliver a speech on monetary policy and supply shocks at an event hosted by the Bank of Japan. Text and Q&A are expected. On April 7th, Jefferson said he saw “our current policy stance as appropriately positioned to allow us to assess how the economy evolves.” Jefferson said he “remain[s] cautious about [the] outlook,” as “uncertainty about the economy is elevated, and the rise in energy prices and the conflict in the Middle East add to that uncertainty.”
• 10:25 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will take part in a panel on monetary policy and the world economy at an event hosted by the Bank of Japan.

Thursday, May 28 

• 08:30 AM Personal income, April (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%); Personal spending, April (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.9%); Core PCE price index, April (GS +0.29%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Core PCE price index (YoY), April (GS +3.31%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.2%); PCE price index, April (GS +0.44%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); PCE price index (YoY), April (GS +3.78%, consensus +3.8%, last +3.5%): We estimate that personal income and spending increased by 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, in April. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.29% in April, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.31%. Additionally, we estimate that the headline PCE price index increased 0.44% in April, or increased 3.78% from a year earlier.
• 08:30 AM GDP, Q1 second release (GS +2.0%, consensus +2.0%, last +2.0%); Personal consumption, Q1 second release (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.6%); Core PCE inflation, Q1 second release (GS +4.26%, consensus +4.3%, last +4.3%): We estimate no revision on net to Q1 GDP growth at +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending growth (+0.1pp to +1.7%) due to stronger utilities and public transportation details in the quarterly census survey (QSS), offset by downward revisions to inventory accumulation and net exports growth.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 23 (GS 210k, consensus 212k, last 209k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 16 (consensus 1,780k, last 1,782k)
• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, April preliminary (GS +1.0%, consensus +3.9%, last +0.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, April preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.9%); Core capital goods orders, April preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +3.4%); Core capital goods shipments, April preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.2%): We estimate that durable goods orders increased 1% in the preliminary April report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) based on our tracking of commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.3% increase in core capital goods orders—reflecting the continued increase in the new orders components in manufacturing surveys in April but payback for an outsized increase in the series itself in March—and a 0.5% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the continued increase in core capital goods orders in recent months.
• 08:55 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference in Iceland. Text and moderated Q&A are expected. On May 14th, Williams said monetary policy was “in a good place,” which he characterized as “mildly restrictive,” and noted that he did not “see that there’s any reason to raise rates right now, or lower rates.”
• 10:00 AM New home sales, April (GS -3.0%, consensus -3.5%, last +7.4%) 
• 10:15 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference in Iceland. On May 6th, Musalem said that “the risks have been shifting towards more risk on the inflation side than the employment side” and that “there are very plausible scenarios under which the economy would require us to keep the policy rate at its current level for some time.”
• 03:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will take part in a fireside chat at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School in Washington, DC. Moderated Q&A is expected. On May 21st, Barkin noted that “with inflation above our 2% target for over five years now, it’s worth asking whether the cumulative impact of so many waves risks loosening the anchor.” At the same time, Barkin emphasized downside risks to employment from AI, noting that “everyone I talk to is talking about AI and AI-related job loss.”

Friday, May 29 

• 06:50 AM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid will deliver a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference in Iceland. Text and moderated Q&A are expected. On May 14th, Schmid said that “continued inflation [is] the most pressing risk to the economy,” while “unemployment remains relatively low by historical standards, and the labor market is functioning effectively.”
• 08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, April (GS -$84.0bn, consensus -$86.4bn, last -$87.4bn): We estimate that the goods trade deficit narrowed by $3.4bn to $84.0bn, driven by a decline in imports of computers and other electronic products from Asia.
• 09:10 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech on monetary policy at the Reykjavik Economic Conference in Iceland. Text is expected.
• 09:15 AM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will take part in an event hosted by The Chamber of Commerce Southern New Jersey. Audience Q&A is expected. On May 19th, Paulson said that she saw the current stance of policy as “mildly restrictive and that restrictiveness is helping to keep inflation pressures in check while the labor market remains stable.” As a result, Paulson noted, “keeping rates steady allows us to assess how the economy is evolving and the risks to both price stability and the labor market.” Paulson said that “assuming the labor market remains in balance, rate cuts would only become appropriate once we have seen sustained progress on inflation.” She also noted that she thought it was “healthy that market participants have taken on board scenarios where the funds rate remains unchanged for an extended period, as well as scenarios where further tightening becomes necessary.”
• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, April preliminary (consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%)
• 12:40 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at the 2026 Reagan National Economic Forum in Simi Valley, California. On May 7th, Daly said that she thought “the phrasing of the [FOMC’s post-meeting] statement is less important than the actions.” Daly noted that “if the [Middle East] conflict ends and oil prices come back down and that doesn’t get passed into the broader economy, then I expect the underlying dynamics that we were facing prior to the conflict to return.” Daly characterized the current monetary policy stance as “slightly restrictive,” which would help put some downward pressure on inflation. She noted that she did not see the labor market as a source of inflationary pressure.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 10:00

China Begins Flooding The Market With DRAM And NAND Memory Chips

Last September, when the memory bubble was just getting started, we said that inevitably "the cure for high commodity prices is, well, high commodity prices." While many financial market maxims have quietly ceased working in recent years thanks to rigged markets due to central bank interventions and market manipulation by both money printers and HFTs, this is one that will never fail, the only question is timing. Furthermore, there is one other thing that can be added as an ironclad footnote here, and that is that once China starts producing the commodity in question, what was formerly price euphoria quickly turns to collapse (as history so vividly demonstrates when looking at any of China's export markets, where price dumping always unleashes hell for domestic producers).  Well, for memory chips, that time has finally come. 

You mean commodity DRAM prices won’t go to infinity? https://t.co/islKPtFQY2

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 22, 2026

According to Tom's Hardware, Wccftech and techspot, Chinese semiconductor firms have begun flooding the market with domestically produced DRAM and NAND chips in a move that analysts say will drive down memory and storage prices, offering consumers some much-needed relief. Reports suggest that several leading global PC component manufacturers have already started using the chips in upcoming products.

According to screenshots posted on X by tipster @wxnod, Corsair has integrated memory chips manufactured by Chinese DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) into its next-generation memory modules. While Corsair typically sources memory chips from Micron Technology, elevated market prices have reportedly pushed the company to explore more cost-effective alternatives.

CXMT DDR5 DRAM Die Appears in Corsair Memory pic.twitter.com/GRLeAUHtEN

— Алексей (@wxnod) May 22, 2026

As Tom's Hardware lays out, in late 2024, China-based ChangXing Memory Technologies (CXMT) began producing DDR5 modules aimed at the consumer market. Since then, the company has even laid out a roadmap that currently puts its max DDR5 capabilities at 8,000 MT/s across 16 Gb and 24 Gb densities. Fast forward to today, and we're finally seeing Chinese DRAM in a mainstream product, more specifically, a Corsair Vengeance DDR5 16GB stick, running at 6,000 MT/s with CL36 speeds.

In the "CMK5X16G3E60C36A2-CN" part number, the "CN" denotes it's a China-exclusive kit. It's still certified for both Intel XMP and AMD EXPO (since it runs beyond JEDEC speeds), and we also see the rest of the specs printed on the label, such as the timings and operating voltage. There are also "UKCA" and "CE" signs that indicate this kit meets European and British standards for sale in those regions. 

The most important thing to note is that the DRAM manufacturer is listed at ChangXin Technologies or CXMT. Now there are plenty of reasons why Corsair has chosen CXMT over its usual Samsung and SK Hynix partners. The shortages that everyone now knows about are the primary reason, and then there's the cost factor.

The post above shows CPU-Z screenshots clearly revealing that the DRAM powering this kit is from CXMT and not one of the big three memory makers: Micron, Samsung, or SK Hynix. All of those companies are busy selling out their entire production lines to data centers instead, so it makes sense that Corsair is shifting around its suppliers. CXMT might seem like an unusual choice, but the company is well-positioned for this transition. It confirms that consumers are now buying RAM made outside the Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix memory cartel that has controlled the market for 20 years, and has single handedly sent us PPI soaring.

Source: Omair Sharif

While unlike major DRAM manufacturers, CXMT isn't widely seen as possessing the latest cutting-edge tools to produce memory for hyperscalers, it is rapidly catching up: HP placed major LPDDR5 orders with CXMT in January, Qualcomm began custom DRAM work with the company in April, and Dell, Asus, and Acer have all approached the manufacturer. Furthermore, the company isn't tied to any data center contracts (for now), so it has largely empty production lines just waiting for customers. The clientele CXMT seems to be targeting is regular consumers left in the dust by the rest of the RAM industry.

Until now, CXMT has only really sold to local businesses and lesser-known brands, but being featured in a Corsair kit marks a major shift in the landscape. Even if this kit is exclusive to Chinese markets, it's still made by one of the biggest names in consumer memory — a name that people trust. Besides, most customers won't actually check what factory their DRAM chips are coming from as long as the specs seem up to par.

As shown below, the kit in question is a DDR5-6000 CL36, which is not the fastest, but is more than sufficient for gaming and daily tasks. There's generally less than 5% difference between a CL30 and CL36 kit at 6,000 MT/s, so for those saving a lot of money going for the slower latency, it might be worth it in some cases, like - you know - a global RAM shortage. That brings us to the main question: Is this RAM actually cheaper?

CXMT DDR5 DRAM 6000 C36-40-40-96 V1.35 pic.twitter.com/rk22qsWYkJ

— Алексей (@wxnod) May 22, 2026

There was no explicit mention of a price, so for all we know, Corsair is sourcing cheaper memory from CXMT but still selling it at the same inflated rates. If supply from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron is tight, it makes sense that DRAM bought from those companies would be expensive, but CXMT-made DDR5 should be significantly more affordable for it to matter and make an actual dent in the market.

Given how massively Chinese firms are increasing their memory production capacity this year, they can not only facilitate their own domestic needs but also provide a cheaper yet similar spec'd alternative to offshore PC manufacturers. Both CXMT and YMTC are going to double their wafer output capacity through an "Epic Expansion" initiative, which is already underway.

As the memory crisis intensifies and more pressure is exerted on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, Chinese vendors will start to fill in the gaps, and are already seeing major revenue boosts. Expect to see lots of Chinese DRAM solutions powering memory modules from well-known brands at Computex this year.

And while Hefei-based CXMT, or ChangXin Memory Technologies, is China's largest memory chipmaker, it only unveiled its DDR5 portfolio last year. Furthermore, the company only controls about 7.7% of the global DRAM market and counts several major Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, among its customers. And now that it can easily undercut most of its international competition on price to gain market share, it will do just that. As a reminder, Chinese chips broke DDR3 and DDR4 pricing on the way in, and DDR5 is now next in line for the same treatment.

The company's strategy ties directly to what Seagate's CEO told JPMorgan last Monday (sending the company's stock price tumbling): that building new factories would "take too long," and the stock fell 6% because investors heard "we cannot meet demand." When, not if, CXMT meets that demand from outside the cartel, the supply tightness that has justified the memory ETF rally will collapse. To be sure, political risk remains since CXMT could still get added to any future US blacklist, but European markets are already open and the trade routes for memory chips do not respect Commerce Department guidance.

Why is CXMT going all out now

CXMT, has been ramping up capacity to compete with global leaders Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The company offers DRAM dies in 64Gb and 16Gb configurations with speeds of up to 8,000 MT/s. Other Chinese memory manufacturers, such as YMTC and Jiahe Jinwei, are also expanding capacity to produce DDR5 RDIMMs for data centers and server deployments.

With memory pricing reaching record highs, CXMT's Q1 revenue rose to 50.8 billion yuan ($7.4 billion), up 719% year over year. The company also reported net profit of 33.0 billion yuan ($4.41 billion), compared with a loss of 2.83 billion yuan ($384 million) in the same period last year. The chipmaker is now reportedly preparing for a listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a multi-billion-dollar IPO planned later this year. Indeed, last week Goldman noted that “CXMT’s updated IPO prospectus, filed last Sunday, indicates that the company is scaling faster and has become materially more profitable than the market had appreciated.” 

Here comes Chinese memory: “CXMT’s updated IPO prospectus, filed on Sunday, indicates that the company is scaling faster and has become materially more profitable than the market had appreciated”- Goldman

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 20, 2026

Some more details: according to China's Hongxing News on the 18th of May, ahead of its upcoming IPO, CXMT said in a prospectus released the previous day that first-quarter sales came to 50.8 billion yuan (about 11.1 trillion won), up 719.13% from a year earlier. First-quarter net profit (net profit attributable to the parent company) was 24.762 billion yuan (about 5.4 trillion won), up 1,688.3% from a year earlier.

Net profit attributable to the parent company refers to the portion of consolidated net income that ultimately belongs to the parent company's shareholders. CXMT's first-quarter sales and net profit surpassed all listings on the STAR Market, including SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.), China's largest foundry (contract chipmaker).

CXMT has higher revenue than Kioxia and SanDisk. China finally has a memory player. pic.twitter.com/hkA052ud36

— Omer Cheema (@OmerCheeema) May 24, 2026

As an aside, the CXMT prospectus indicates that the company's yields for DDR5 and LPDDR5X on its 1a (16nm-class) node have reached 80%+.For semicap space the cleaner beneficiaries are likely to be the domestic Chinese equipment vendors (given that China policy is to push for  domestic tools where feasible) such as Naura, AMEC and SMEE, while the case for ASML is more nuanced given ongoing lithography constraints in China.  

But wait, it's not just DRAM and CXMT: last week Reuters reported that China's top flash memory chipmaker YMTC ​has begun the so-called "tutoring" process for a potential ‌initial public offering, where a company receives formal pre-IPO guidance from an investment bank, a regulatory filing showed on Tuesday. NAND maker Yangtze Memory Technologies Co (YMTC) ​has hired CITIC Securities, a Chinese state-owned investment ​bank, to guide its IPO preparation ahead of a ⁠potential stock market listing.

Despite being added to a U.S. trade blacklist in late 2022, which curtailed its access to foreign chipmaking ​tools, the ​Wuhan-based company has ⁠expanded its use of domestic equipment suppliers such as Naura and is aggressively adding capacity

If CXMT is going after the Samsungs and Microns of the world with its DRAM portfolio, YMTC is going right after Sandisk: China's largest ​maker of NAND flash memory chips has two factories with a combined monthly output of 200,000 wafers. YMTC's third factory in Wuhan will start operations late this ⁠year, and ​has capacity to produce 50,000 wafers ​per month by 2027, Reuters has reported previously.

YMTC and CXMT are China's ​best hopes for establishing a foothold in a global memory chip market ‌long ⁠dominated by South Korean and US players, and one can be sure that in a world where even hyperscalers are giving up a huge chunk of margins to memory producers (see "Nvidia's Vera Rubin Rack Will Cost $7.8MM: Here's What's In It"), Beijing will do everything it can - and must - to win over as many margin-conscious companies as it can.

Source

And it will do so using the oldest trick in the Chinese book: by massively undercutting all of its established competition on price. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 08:25

Futures Rise, US Stocks Set For New Record As Hopes For Iran Peace Deal Persist Despite Bombing

US futures are higher again, led by tech and small caps. As of 7:30am, S&P 500 futures rose 0.7%, signaling US stocks are set for another record high when the market reopens after Memorial Day weekend. Nasdaq 100 contracts, supercharged by the artificial intelligence trade, gained more than 1% as Magnificent Seven big tech shares rallied in premarket trading. In premarket trading, all Mag 7 are higher led by NVDA (+0.8%), TSLA (+0.8%) and GOOG/L (+0.7%). 10-year Treasury yields fell six basis points and the dollar was steady after dropping against major peers in the previous session. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 index slipped, handing back some of Monday’s 1% advance. Brent trading below $100 on hopes of deescalation between Iran and the US. Yet even though we have seen a barrage of optimistic media reports regarding progress on the US-Iran negotiation; on Monday night the US conducted "defensive" strikes on Iranian military targets, which the Iranian foreign ministry moments ago condemned as ceasefire violations.  Gold and silver are both lower this morning, falling 1.0% and 2.5%, respectively; Ags are mostly lower. Today's economic data slate includes the April Chicago Fed national activity index and May Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), March FHFA house price index, S&P Cotality home prices and FHFA 1Q house price purchase index (9am), May consumer confidence (10am) and May Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Nvidia +1.2%, Tesla +1%, Apple +0.6%, Amazon +0.4%, Alphabet +0.2%, Microsoft +0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.1%) 

• Amentum Holdings Inc. shares (AMTM) gain 0.4% after BNP Paribas initiated coverage of the engineering firm with a recommendation of underperform as it sees growth lagging peers.
• AutoZone shares (AZO) fall 5.6% after it reported net sales for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. shares (BAH) are up 1.4% after Stifel upgraded the company to buy from hold.
• Bridgebio Pharma shares (BBIO) dip 0.8% after Raymond James downgraded the drugmaker to market perform from outperform, citing near-term headwinds.
• Circle Internet Group Inc. shares (CRCL) rise 0.6% after it was initiated at KeyBanc Capital Markets with a recommendation of sector weight as it sees the stablecoin issuer being a leader in the sector, however dealing with lower margins.
• Okta Inc. shares (OKTA) are up 2.3% after Arete upgraded the software company by two notches, to buy from sell.
• Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PBA) rises 0.9% after it was upgraded to buy from hold at TD Cowen on sector growth.
• Shares in rocket and satellite companies (RDW +16%, MDA +17%, ASTS +7%) are rallying, set to extend recent gains since SpaceX filed publicly for what stands to be the largest-ever initial public offering.
• Shares in semiconductor companies with exposure to Asia (WOLF +8.5%, SMTC +4%) are rallying on optimism over a potential breakthrough in technology by Huawei.

Shares in rocket and satellite companies rallied in US premarket trading Tuesday, extending recent gains. The sector has advanced since SpaceX filed publicly for what stands to be the largest-ever initial public offering. Among the movers, Redwire Corp. climbed 15%,  MDA Space Ltd. jumped 13% and Firefly Aerospace Inc. rose 11%.

Investors are largely shrugging off a modest rebound in crude prices after the US hit Iranian ships and missile launch sites, and Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had fired at a US F-35 fighter jet. Israel also threatened to intensify its strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. While the news flow clouds prospects of a swift resumption in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, investors appear optimistic that peace talks can still progress.

US authorities have described their strikes as defensive in nature, following President Donald Trump’s comment on Monday that talks were “proceeding nicely.” And despite Tuesday’s increase, oil prices are on track for a drop in May after rising in the previous two months.

"The main driver of the mood music is the story in Iran,” Mizuho Bank Ltd. strategist Jordan Rochester said. Despite the strikes and belligerent rhetoric from Iran, “both sides are closer than they have been to date to getting something over the line. The US has made it clear it does not want the kinetic action to re-start,” he said. 

With the Middle East de-escalation lifting equity sentiment, “one might have expected to see the dollar weaker across the board – but it has been holding up quite well,” Turner wrote. “We suspect this is being driven by the view that the Federal Reserve is about to turn less dovish.” 

As Big Tech raises hundreds of billions of dollars to fund AI investment, Wall Street banks are increasingly finding they have to trade more credit derivatives to keep doing business with the hyperscalers.

JPMorgan strategists said low-volatility stocks look attractive after a selloff triggered by rising bond yields, regardless of where yields go from here. Their US basket includes the likes of P&G, Coca-Cola, J&J and American Electric Power. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said stock markets can handle higher bond yields as long as strong economic growth is the main catalyst, rather than a more aggressive central bank stance.  

Meanwhile, the SEC has given the go-ahead for Nasdaq to list index options based on the price of Bitcoin, the latest sign that Wall Street is becoming more tightly integrated with the world of digital assets.  South Korea — the world’s best-performing yet most volatile market — is set to debut its first ever single-stock leveraged ETFs this week, tools that have the potential to amplify gains and losses. Analysts expect strong demand from the nation’s more than 14 million retail investors.

Investors are also closely watching the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, with expectations growing that the central bank will need to keep policy tight after the oil-price jump spurred the biggest inflation surge since 2023. A number of officials have abandoned their easing bias, while Trump — who has repeatedly called interest-rate cuts — said on Friday he wanted new Chair Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed independently.

An inflation gauge due later this week is expected to show annual price growth ticking up further in April, potentially reinforcing expectations that policy will stay tight. Chris Turner at ING Bank NV also highlighted the possibility of a strong jobs print later Tuesday, following last week’s robust reading.  BlackRock’s Navin Saigal says the Fed may have enough reason to justify a rate cut rather than a hike under new chairman Kevin Warsh. The swaps market is not convinced, pricing in a better than 80% chance of a 25-bpt hike by the end of the year.

Prints this week should shed light on how American businesses are dealing with unresolved questions around tariff refunds. AutoZone reports before the open on Tuesday, followed a day later by HP, and Costco on Thursday. 

This week is a big one for economic data, which according to Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong “speak directly to the two questions markets care about: whether US consumers are buckling under high gasoline prices, and whether inflation is too sticky for the Fed’s comfort.” 
At 10 a.m. ET, she expects confirmation of a modest erosion of consumer confidence in May, followed on Thursday by a still-hot reading for April of the PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Europe’s benchmark Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.2%, handing back some of Monday’s 1% advance, as oil prices climbed, fueling concerns that a resolution to the Iran war remains out of reach. Auto and technology stocks underperformed, while the mining sector led gains.  Here are some of the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Kingfisher shares roe as much as 8.3%, briefly hitting a two-month high, after the DIY-retailer reported first-quarter sales and reiterated its guidance, which analysts said is providing some reassurance following recent pressure on the stock.
• Atalaya rose as much as 7.2% after the miner’s earnings significantly beat consensus forecasts.
• Industrie De Nora shares rose as much as 11%, briefly hitting their highest level since January, after the maker of industrial electronic equipment said it has agreed to buy BW Water, which Jefferies said will help increase exposure to high-growth markets.
• CVS Group shares advanced as much as 5.8%, the most since April 8, after the UK veterinary services provider launched a £50 million share buyback program.
• Ferrari shares fell as much as 7.8% in Milan, the most in more than seven months, after analysts criticized the design of the supercar maker’s first fully electric model, priced at €550,000.
• Vodafone shares fell as much as 4.9% after being downgraded to underperform by Bank of America.
• Melrose shares fell as much as 7.3%, most since Feb. 27, after authorities ordered precautionary evacuations around the company’s GKN Aerospace facility in California following a thermal issue with a storage tank.

Asian shares are headed for a fourth straight session of gains, as optimism around artificial intelligence outweighed lingering unease over US-Iran talks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.7%, with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and SoftBank among the biggest boosts. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 2.6% to a record, while Hong Kong shares also rose as the markets reopened after Monday’s holiday. Tech hardware stocks have been driving gains in the region despite concerns over elevated valuations and sustainability of hyperscaler spending. The prospect for a negative economic impact from the Iran war has also been shrugged off, even with a rebound in oil prices after fresh US military strikes. This week, investors will be watching rate decisions in South Korea and New Zealand to gauge the impact of higher fuel prices on inflation. Other key events include earnings from Chinese EV smartphone and EV maker Xiaomi due later Tuesday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar index is higher by 0.1% with gains in the greenback most pronounced against the kiwi ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ rate decision. 

In rates, Treasuries hold solid gains as US trading resumes after Monday’s holiday, after yields gapped lower at the Asia open on mounting optimism about an end to the US war on Iran. Lower energy prices relative to Friday’s close have sent US yields lower across the curve with the 10-year down 5bps; US yields are near session lows are as much as 9bp richer on the day intermediate sector as swaps price in less chance of a Fed rate hike by mid-2027 (Fed-dated OIS contracts price in around 19bp of tightening by the end of this year vs about 27bp at Friday’s close, and a policy-rate peak of around 3.93% by the middle of next year vs 4% Friday). US yields are 6bp to 9bp lower across a steeper curve, with 5s30s spread about 2bp wider on the day; 10-year near 4.48% is richest since May 14. Front-end and belly sectors have support from fading Fed rate-hike expectations as oil prices fall; WTI crude futures remain about 4.5% lower after rebounding slightly following fresh US military strikes in Iran. Treasury auction cycle begins with $69 billion 2-year note at 1pm New York time, followed by $70 billion 5-year and $44 billion 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. WI 2-year yield near 4.055% is about 24bp cheaper than last month’s auction, which tailed by just 0.1bp. IG dollar issuance slate includes several offerings so far. Dealer forecasts are for about $30 billion during the holiday-shortened week. Focal points of US session include consumer confidence gauge and 2-year note auction. 

In commodities, brent crude futures are up 3.7% on the session but down almost 4% on a two day basis, trading just below the $100/bbl level. Monday’s lack of settlement for WTI explains the current intraday divergence between the two benchmarks with the WTI July contract shedding 3.9%.

Today's economic data slate includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), April Chicago Fed national activity index and May Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), March FHFA house price index, S&P Cotality home prices and FHFA 1Q house price purchase index (9am), May consumer confidence (10am) and May Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Kashkari at 8:20pm, speaking at a Bank of Japan conference

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• US and Israeli jets struck Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and other targets, hours after Donald Trump said talks with Tehran on an interim deal were progressing. Israel vowed more strikes on Hezbollah and Iran demanded any deal to reopen the strait include a halt to fighting in Lebanon.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov advised Marco Rubio to evacuate American citizens and diplomats from Kyiv. He warned that the Kremlin plans to continue heavy strikes on the Ukrainian capital. BBG
• Huawei Technologies said on Monday it will make industry-leading semiconductors using a new technology in five years, underscoring Beijing's efforts to neutralize U.S. sanctions that have made it hard for China to build cutting-edge chips. RTRS
• Workers’ pay packets are shrinking in relation to prices in a growing number of rich countries as the energy shock unleashed by the Iran war chokes off a nascent recovery in real wages. FT
• The ECB should raise interest rates in June, even if ongoing peace talks with Iran yield a deal, as the conflict has been far longer than projected and high energy prices are spilling into the broader economy. RTRS
• China let the interest rate on a one-year policy loan to banks decline to a record low, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign Beijing is stepping up efforts to support an economy that’s losing momentum. BBG
• Japan's core inflation as measured by a new central bank gauge accelerated in April ‌and blew past its 2% target, data showed on Tuesday, helping make the case for an interest rate hike as soon as next month. BBG
• ECB’s chief economist sees no need to correct markets from anticipating a rate hike next month. Nikkei
• NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani is set to unveil a plan today to exempt some distressed rent-stabilized landlords. It would allow eligible owners to impose a one-time rent increase on certain vacant units. WSJ
• Hedge funds and mutual funds each carry above-average equity market exposures. Hedge funds and mutual funds initially reduced exposure to US equities at the onset of geopolitical tensions in March but hedge funds have since lifted net leverage to the 85th percentile relative to the last five years. Although mutual funds lifted cash allocations from a record low of 1.1% at the start of 2026 to 1.4% at the start of April, cash balances as a share of assets still remain extremely low relative to history. GIR

Iran Conflict News

• Over the weekend, US President Trump posted that an agreement has largely been negotiated, subject to finalisation between the US, Iran and various Middle Eastern countries, while the final aspects and details of the deal were being discussed, and will be announced shortly. He followed up by stating that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, while he informed representatives not to rush into a deal and that time is on their side.
• Reuters reported that the proposed framework is broken into three stages: 1) formally ending the war, 2) reopening the Strait of Hormuz and 3) opening an extendable 30-day window for broader negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief. Axios further reported, citing a US official, that an agreement would involve a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be opened, Iran would be able to freely sell oil, and negotiations would be held on curbing Iran's nuclear programme.
• However, a US senior official told Axios that the White House doesn’t expect an agreement to end the war with Iran on Sunday and believes it could take several days for the deal’s approval by Iran’s leadership.
• Elsewhere, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi travelled to Doha for talks with Qatar's PM.
• US Central Command spokesperson said US forces conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran on Monday, in which US forces hit targets, including missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. Furthermore, CENTCOM said it will defend troops while maintaining the ceasefire restraint and stated that strikes have concluded for now.
• Explosions were reported in Iran's Bandar Abbas city, with the cause initially unknown, while similar sounds were also heard in the Persian Gulf, around Sirik and Jask. A Mehr News Agency reporter stated shortly after that the situation in the city was normal and completely under control, with no reason for any concern for the people of Bandar Abbas. However, N12 reporter Nitzan Shapira posted on Telegram that unofficial channels identified with the IRGC said fighter jets attacked two boats in the port of Bandar Abbas and that four people were killed. Furthermore, Iranian media reported the killing of a number of Iranians as a result of the American-Israeli attacks on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Asharq.
• US President Trump posted "The Enriched Uranium (Nuclear Dust!) will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event."
• US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran negotiations will take a few days and that President Trump said he will make a good deal or no deal, while Rubio added that there were some talks going on in Qatar and thinks there is a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document. Rubio commented that negotiating the language of the deal with Iran could take a few days, and the Strait of Hormuz is going to be opened one way or the other.
• US Secretary of State Rubio said US strikes on Iran do not preclude a diplomatic deal and that an Iran deal is possible within days, while Al Jazeera reported that the US strike on Iran's Bandar Abbas is a 'small hurdle' but unlikely to derail peace talks.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East; "the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases." He further said the clock cannot be turned back and the "shaky Zionist regime will move closer to the end of its ominous existence."
• Iran's IRGC said Iran has the right to respond to respond to any US ceasefire breach. They have identified hostile aircrafts entering Iran's airspace in the Gulf region and have shot down one MQ-9 drone.
• IRIB News said the claims by Al Arabiya regarding the 14-point MOU between the US and Iran are false and baseless.
• Iran's Supreme Leader issued directives on officials' war duties, including managing wartime economy and for officials to seek reparations from enemies, while it was also stated that officials are to use the Hormuz Strait as leverage.
• Iranian official source said Tehran warned Washington that any Israeli attacks on Beirut or the southern suburbs would seriously jeopardise ongoing efforts to end the war, and could derail the diplomatic track altogether, according to journalist Hashem.
• Iranian National Security Committee Chairman said if the US side takes confidence-building measures at the implementation level and we see tangible results, this could be the basis for further steps. He added that Iran will not compromise on national interests.
• IRGC senior spokesperson said, "If we are attacked, our attacks will be more intense, heavier and stronger", according to IRIB News citing an Al Jazeera interview. The report added that "The response to any new aggression will be different from what it has been before."
• Israeli Broadcasting Authority said the Israeli army has begun mobilising its soldiers with the aim of intensifying its operations in Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israeli army intensified strikes in southern Lebanon on Monday, as Israeli PM Netanyahu said he had ordered the military to escalate its offensive in Lebanon in an effort to "crush" Hezbollah, according to CBS News and AFP.
• Israeli warplanes conducted airstrikes on the town of Al-Duweir in the Nabatiyeh district, southern Lebanon, according to Al Mayadeen.
• Hezbollah said it targeted Israeli forces at the headquarters of the 300th Brigade in Shumera.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed as the recent optimism regarding a nearing US-Iran agreement was clouded by reports that the US launched 'self-defence' strikes in southern Iran against missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines, although the market reaction to the renewed attack was limited, with some reports downplaying the likelihood that it could derail peace talks. ASX 200 was subdued with the index led lower by utilities and energy, but with the downside limited amid a lack of data releases and following the mixed geopolitical signals. Nikkei 225 pulled back after printing a fresh record high and briefly returned to beneath the 65,000 level amid profit taking and as participants reflected on the latest geopolitical headlines, while there were comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino that they will continue to raise the policy rate, adjust the degree of monetary accommodation according to economic activity, prices and financial conditions. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the mainland subdued alongside the geopolitical uncertainty, while the Hong Kong benchmark outperformed on return from the holiday closure as tech strength helped participants shrug off China's announcement late last week regarding a cross-border investment crackdown.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said authorities are watching Middle East developments carefully and will act in a timely manner to cushion the impact on households.
• Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Ozaki said they are aware of reports regarding consumption tax, but nothing decided yet and will refrain from prejudging.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.3%) trade mixed. Risk sentiment has softened after reports overnight that the US conducted strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran overnight, with US CENTCOM citing self-defence. To add, US Secretary of State Rubio tempered expectations, saying a deal could take a few days and warned that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened "one way or the other." Sectors lack a clear directional bias. Basic Resources (+1.2%) is the clear sector outperformer, helped by UK miners (Glencore, Rio Tinto). To the downside lies Technology (-1.2%) and Autos (-1.7%).

Top European News

• EU Commissioner for Startups Research and Innovation said the UK could join a EUR 4bln EU startup fund this year, according to FT.

FX

• G10s are broadly lower against the Buck as thin risk-on holiday trade on Monday was partially pared as US CENTCOM conducted "self-defence" strikes in Iran and Iran issued unconstructive rhetoric regarding the strikes.
• DXY trades modestly higher, returning to Monday’s session highs amid the aforementioned geopolitics and a general rebound in crude benchmarks. Dollar saw upside this morning on rare remarks from Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, suggesting “America will no longer have a safe haven in the Middle East…. the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases". USD strength seen on these remarks was pared just above Monday's session highs of 99.12. DXY should remain supported by its 50DMA at 98.93, as it was on Monday, with resistance at 99.50.
• Kiwi is the worst G10 performer, heading into the RBNZ meeting and OCR projections on Wednesday, with Antipodeans generally underperforming amidst the modestly sour tone (AUD/NZD +0.3%, NZD/USD -0.5%). RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for the third consecutive meeting as geopolitical uncertainty and mixed data support the case for a pause. Markets currently assign c. 70% probability of a hold, with risks skewed to tightening.
• GBP is also softer as energy is boosted on geopolitics, and GBP/USD reverses from the 1.35 mark after gains on bank holiday Monday.
• EUR is one of the best-performing G10s as it resides a touch below 1.1650 after soft EZ, and hawkish US data pushed EUR/USD lower last week. The European docket for the remainder of the week, with EZ inflation and GDP data scheduled.

Central Banks

• ECB's Schnabel said the ECB should raise rates in June, even if an Iran peace deal is struck, while she sees signs of energy inflation spillovers.
• ECB's Lane said the ECB is not pre-committing to a particular path after June, Nikkei reported.
• BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said higher long-term interest rates are being interpreted by markets as a sign of persistent inflation concerns worldwide, while he added that monetary policy will be guided appropriately to achieve the inflation goal stably and sustainably. Himino also commented that the economic outlook can change depending on the Middle East situation and they will consider the timing and pace of adjustment while monitoring how Middle East developments affect Japan's economy, prices and examining the likelihood of realising the baseline scenario. Furthermore, he said they will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation according to economic activity, prices and financial conditions.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are mixed, but the bias throughout the European morning is negative. USTs are stronger (given the lack of settlement on Monday), Gilts play catch-up to peers (given Monday’s Bank Holiday), whilst Bunds move lower. To recap recent geopolitical updates, strength in fixed benchmarks was facilitated by the weekend's geopolitical positive updates, in which reports suggested that the US-Iran were nearing a deal. However, the complex then waned from overnight highs amidst reports of the US conducting “self-defence” strikes near Bandar Abbas. The move further exacerbated in European hours after the Iranian Supreme Leader said that America no longer has a safe haven in the Middle East, adding that the region will no longer serve as a shield for US bases.
• Markets now remain attentive to whether Iran decides to physically retaliate against the US’s strikes, or whether a deal between the US and Iran can be ironed out. Geopolitics aside, the US data slate includes the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, CB Consumer Confidence and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; in Europe, ECB speak from Sleijpen will be in focus.
• USTs are firmer by c. 15 ticks, but off c. 10 ticks from Monday’s highs; currently trading within a 109-17 to 110-00 range.Elsewhere, Gilts are firmer by around 35 ticks and ultimately playing catch-up to the gap higher seen on Monday; UK paper trades within the 88.17 to 88.70 range. Finally, the German paper has moved lower this morning, given the positive bias seen in the crude complex. Bunds currently off by around 30 ticks and within a 125.95 to 126.26 range. Earlier, hawkish speak from Schnabel failed to move Bunds; she noted that the Bank should raise rates in June, even if a peace deal with Iran is struck.

Commodities

• Crude futures rebound following yesterday's hefty losses, with Brent futures firmer by 3.50%, whilst WTI/Brent intraday change quotes diverge given the lack of WTI settlement due to the US holiday yesterday. In terms of geopolitics, US forces carried out “self-defence” strikes in southern Iran against missile launch sites and boats allegedly attempting to lay mines. CENTCOM said the strikes had concluded, “for now”. Over in Iran, the IRGC said Tehran has the right to respond to any US ceasefire breach, adding that it had identified hostile aircraft entering Iranian airspace over the Gulf and shot down an MQ-9 drone. To add, Supreme Leader Khamenei has reportedly yet to approve progress toward a potential US-Iran accord.
• Brent Aug’26 resides towards the upper end of a USD 94.36-97.08/bbl range, while WTI Jul’26 sits in a USD 89.41-93.90/bbl band. Dutch TTF prices are firmer by some 4% intraday and back above the EUR 47/MWh mark after oscillating around EUR 46/MWh yesterday.
• Spot gold falls with the yellow metal dipping under yesterday’s USD 4,549/oz low after matching the high at USD 4,580/oz, with today’s trough at USD 4,518/oz. Spot silver is also weaker, with prices slipping from a USD 78.39/oz to a current low at USD 75.73/oz.
• Base metals are mixed with the LME returning from its long weekend. LME and CME copper trade relatively flat, with price action rather varied across different base metals. LME copper resides in a narrow USD 13.62k-13.73k/t range.
• Malaysia has imposed a 10% import duty on some gold bar shipments.
• UBS lowers year-end 2026 Gold price forecast to USD 5500/oz; citing persistent yield and USD headwinds

Geopolitics ex Iran

• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov called US Secretary of State Rubio to urge the evacuation of US citizens and diplomats from Kyiv, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Furthermore, the US State Department said Rubio exchanged views with Lavrov on the Russia-Ukraine war, bilateral relations and the situation with Iran.
• South Korean military said North Korea fired an unidentified projectile, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.03, prior -0.2
• 9:00 am: United States Mar FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0%
• 10:00 am: United States May Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 92, prior 92.8
• 10:30 am: United States May Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 0, prior -2.3
• 8:20 pm: United States Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Bank of Japan Conference

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With the US and UK on holiday yesterday, we will include a brief look at the week ahead today and also briefly recap last week. My knowledge of the last 24 hours is slightly clouded by being far away from my screen, having spent yesterday managing a cricket tournament for 70 under nine children on our local village green, on what turned out to be the hottest day in May in UK history, surpassing the previous record set in 1944. It is fair to say that the real hero of the day was the driver of the ice cream van who swung by at just the right moment.

The team I coach won the group stage, only to lose in the semi final to the fourth place team that we had beaten earlier. The chairman has given me his backing to stay on in my post, but the children (mostly my two twins) were calling for me to be replaced. With player power being what it is these days, my days may be numbered.

Since the weekend, the real hope is that the days may also be numbered for the war in Iran as well, with momentum building since the start of the weekend that a deal could be in the works. Brent, which ended last week at $103.54/bbl, is this morning trading at $97.87/bbl, around -5.48% lower than Friday’s close.

However, Brent had got as low as $96.02 late yesterday before news overnight that US and Israeli jets conducted fresh strikes in Southern Iran, hitting missile launch sites and mine-laying boats. These actions were described as "defensive" and not an end to the ceasefire with Iran.
Net net, optimism is still elevated that an agreement can be made to end the war. We have been here before, of course, but it has felt for some time that the move towards peace has been three steps forward and one or two back. It is now 48 days since the main kinetic encounters, and my view for a while has been that such a prolonged truce and ceasefire would not have held if the US genuinely wanted to continue strikes, unless there was absolutely no alternative. Last night's targeted action is clearly a warning shot that the ceasefire is fragile though, so we will have to see what the next few days of negotiations bring.

This morning S&P 500 futures are +0.62% and NASDAQ futures +0.85% which is a few tenths of a percent lower than most of yesterday before the overnight strikes. In Asia, the KOSPI (+2.96%) is leading gains and reaching a new record but it was on holiday yesterday along with the Hang Seng (+0.53%).  The Nikkei (-0.11%) is slightly lower with slightly bigger falls for the Shanghai Composite (-0.81%).

European equity futures are down two or three tenths but this follows a strong day on Monday with the DAX (+2.01%) strength typifying the move. Euro Stoxx (+1.11%) closed within a whisker of pre-Iran War levels and if you're looking for a highlight then the FTSE-MIB (+2.24%) finally cleared its all-time high last seen back in the year 2000!! So a momentous day for Italy!

10yr European bonds were around 9 to 12bps lower across the curve yesterday even if futures suggest a little bit of a sell off at the open. This morning 10yr USTs have reopened -5.1bps lower after the long weekend.

Moving on to the rest of this week, inflation once again dominates with important price data across the US, Europe and Japan. In the US, the clear focal point is Thursday’s April personal income and spending report (Thursday), which contains the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Our economists expect core PCE inflation at around +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from March, with the year-on-year rate edging higher. This release matters not just for the inflation print itself, but for how it fits with the broader narrative of sticky services inflation and resilient demand. On the real economy side of the same report (Thursday), our economists expect momentum to cool after a very strong March, with personal consumption growth slowing back to around +0.3% month-on-month and personal income rising by roughly +0.4%.

This comes after a hawkish speech from Waller on Friday. He discussed how the recent labour market and inflation data had caused him to reevaluate the balance of risks with inflation becoming the “driving force” behind monetary policy in the near term. In particular, he noted that he would support changing language in the statement to remove the easing bias and make it clear that “a rate cut is no more likely in the future than a rate increase”. In light of this there is a lot of Fedspeak to watch this week. You can see a list in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual but keep an eye on Minneapolis’s Kashkari (today) and Dallas’s Logan (tomorrow)—both of whom had dissented against the easing bias in the April statement. They are likely to repeat their view that the stance of monetary policy should be more balanced, particularly as inflation risks remain front of mind.

Staying with the Fed, last Friday, our Chief US economist, Matt Luzzetti, wrote an interesting piece entitled “overinsured” where he discusses how the Fed has delivered 175bps of rate cuts in this cycle even as inflation has remained well above target, framing the last round as “insurance” or “risk management” cuts in response to elevated downside labour market risks. Matt suggests that relative to a set of standard policy rules, the first set of cuts in 2024 was appropriate. But following the second set last year, and the recent acceleration of inflation, the fed funds rate is now significantly below all policy rule settings. This finding is robust to different plausible estimates of r-star and the use of economic forecasts instead of current inflation and unemployment in the policy rules. See Matt’s piece here for how future rate hikes might be interpreted as a prudent reversal of that insurance.

Beyond PCE, Thursday also brings durable goods orders (Thursday), where our economists look for a modest headline increase consistent with steady but unspectacular capital spending momentum. Earlier in the week, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index (tomorrow) is expected to edge lower, potentially reflecting the cumulative impact of higher rates and policy uncertainty. Weekly initial jobless claims (Thursday) remain an important high-frequency signal on labour market conditions, although holiday effects may add some volatility.

In Europe, attention turns to the May flash inflation prints at the end of the week, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain all reporting on Friday, ahead of the Eurozone aggregate the following week. Our economists expect inflation to remain above target across the region. Alongside the data, the ECB publishes the account of its April meeting (Thursday) and its Financial Stability Review (Wednesday), offering further insight into how policymakers are balancing lingering inflation pressures against softer growth and financial stability considerations.

In Asia, Japan is the key focus. Friday’s Tokyo CPI (Friday) will provide an early read on national inflation trends, alongside April industrial production and retail sales (Friday). Our economists expect inflation measures to firm modestly, underscoring that price pressures remain present even as activity data stay mixed. Elsewhere, China releases industrial profits (tomorrow), Australia publishes its April CPI (Wednesday), and the RBNZ announces its latest policy decision (tomorrow), where our economists expect the cash rate to be left unchanged.

On the corporate side, earnings highlights include US tech names such as Dell, Marvell and Salesforce, alongside consumer-facing firms including Costco and Dollar Tree, with most results clustered around mid-to-late week.

Recapping last week now, more for those who were off yesterday. Markets put in a strong performance overall, as hopes mounted for some kind of US-Iran deal. So that raised investor expectations that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen in the weeks ahead, which helped to bring down oil prices. Indeed, Brent crude fell -5.24% last week to $103.54/bbl, whilst WTI fell -8.37% to $96.60/bbl. Moreover, investors dialled back their expectations for a more protracted conflict, with the 6-month Brent future also down -2.97% last week to $88.28/bbl.  

That decline in oil prices meant investor fears eased about a stagflationary shock to the global economy, supporting bonds and equities on both sides of the Atlantic. In fact, the S&P 500 posted an 8th consecutive weekly advance for the first time since 2023, rising another +0.88% over the week. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 posted a +3.00% advance, closing at its highest level in the last month. Interestingly, the latest advance took place despite weakness among the big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 falling -0.76% last week, ending a run of 7 consecutive weekly gains.  

With oil prices coming down, that also helped to ease fears about near-term inflation, which again was clear on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the US 1yr inflation swap fell -31.0bps to 3.11% and the Euro 1yr inflation swap fell -15.4bps to 3.62%. But despite easing fears on the inflation side, investors also dialled up the chance that the Fed would hike rates this year, with 24bp of rate hikes now priced by December. That included a +3.2bps rise on Friday as the University of Michigan survey showed 5-10 year expectations spiking from 3.4% to 3.9% in May and Fed Governor Waller struck a more hawkish tone, saying that he’d support removing the easing bias in the Fed’s statement. That backdrop meant that front-end Treasury yields continued to move higher last week, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +5.1bps to 4.12% (+3.9bps Friday), its highest level since February 2025. However, the 10yr yield came down, falling -3.5bps on the week to 4.56%.

In Europe however, sovereign bonds saw a much stronger rally thanks to the oil price declines, alongside worse-than-expected flash PMIs. So in contrast to the US, investors dialled back their expectations for rate hikes from the ECB this year. That meant just 65bps of hikes were priced by the December meeting, down from 75bps the previous week. In turn, yields fell across the continent, with the 10yr bund yield down -12.9bps to 3.04%, whilst 10yr gilt yields fell -27.5bps to 4.90%, marking their biggest weekly decline since 2023. Otherwise in fixed income, US credit markets outperformed last week, with IG (-1bps) and HY spreads (-7bps) tightening slightly. By contrast, European spreads widened, with both IG (+1bps) and HY spreads (+13bps) rising.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 08:25

CDC Adds Another Airport For Screening Of Travelers Who Might Have Ebola

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Two more airports have been added as options for people traveling from countries affected by the Ebola outbreak in Africa.

People traveling from Congo, Uganda, or South Sudan can go to the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta, Georgia, and George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas, starting May 26, Customs and Border Protection said on May 22.

The CDC said in a statement that Atlanta airport “has established operational procedures in place” for enhanced screening, which is one layer of the country’s approach to public health on top of screening individuals overseas before they board flights, having airlines report suspected illnesses among passengers, and monitoring people after they arrive.

On May 21, U.S. officials announced that U.S. citizens and legal residents who had been in Congo, Uganda, or South Sudan within 21 days of arrival must go through Washington Dulles International Airport in Virginia, outside the nation’s capital.

CDC officials said that the travelers would be escorted to a special area of the airport to complete a questionnaire about their travel history and symptoms, and to provide their contact details.

CDC personnel would observe people for signs of illness and take their temperatures with no-contact thermometers.

Travelers without symptoms would be allowed to go to their final destinations; travelers with symptoms would be evaluated by a CDC public health officer and may be sent to area hospitals.

U.S. officials have said that there are no cases of Ebola in the United States linked to the outbreak, which was confirmed in Congo earlier this year and is up to more than 1,000 suspected and confirmed cases.

One case was confirmed in an American doctor, Dr. Peter Stafford, who was working in Congo. He and his family were flown to Germany for treatment, while another doctor, Dr. Patrick LaRochelle, was transported to the Czech Republic for monitoring.

Ambulance staff at the Ronald Reagan UCLA Medical Center during their Ebola virus readiness drill to test their ability to diagnose and treat Ebola patients in Los Angeles on Oct. 17, 2014. Mark Ralston/AFP via Getty Images

Serge, a Christian organization with which Stafford and LaRochelle work, said on May 24 that LaRochelle is asymptomatic. The group previously released a statement from Stafford saying the doctor was “cautiously optimistic” after beginning to receive care in Germany.

A White House official told The Epoch Times in a recent email that decisions on whether to move Americans who contract or are exposed to Ebola in another country to the United States will be made on a case-by-case basis, “but we will do what we need to to ensure health of Americans and minimize transmission odds.”

The CDC has taken other steps to try to prevent introducing Ebola to the United States, including barring the entry of non-U.S. passport holders who have been in Congo, Uganda, or South Sudan in the past 21 days.

The CDC on May 22 expanded that entry ban to green card holders who have recently been in those countries.

The new policy, in place for 30 days, will give acting CDC Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya time to “make an informed determination” about necessary travel restrictions going forward, according to the public health agency.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 07:45

Ferrari Shares Plunge After Analyst Slams New EV As "Mix Between Honda And Tesla"

Ferrari shares fell in Milan on Tuesday after the Italian supercar maker unveiled its first EV sports car, disappointing Wall Street analysts who criticized the design, with one calling it a "mix between a Honda Accord EV and Tesla."

The four-door, five-seat Ferrari Luce, priced at a staggering 550,000 euros, marks the supercar maker's first fully electric vehicle and serves as its biggest test yet: can Ferrari's nearly eight-decade brand equity survive the transition away from combustion?

Ferrari has just officially unveiled its first ever all-electric car, called the Ferrari Luce.

• Starting price: $640,000
• Interior co-designed with Apple's former head of design, Jony Ive
• Range: 280 miles (expected EPA)
• Peak charging speed: 350kW
• 122 kWh battery
•… pic.twitter.com/QjgHeP1hJm

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 25, 2026

AIR Capital analyst Pierre-Olivier Essig said the Luce looks like a "mix between a Honda Accord EV and a Tesla."

He added, "We are lost in translation with Ferrari's new strategy."

The Luce is equipped with 1,000 horsepower, accelerates from 0-60 mph in 2.5 seconds, and has a top speed above 192 mph. Even with top-tier performance, the car's design has been instantly rejected by people online.

Left, Ferrari Luce $645k
Right, Nissan Leaf $35k pic.twitter.com/2PtrCrgnDW

— Tommy (@_TommyMason) May 25, 2026

Analysts at Oddo BHF noted that initial reactions to the exterior design have been largely negative among core Ferrari enthusiasts, reflecting concerns about a deviation from the brand's heritage.

They noted that while it is a bold and strategic move, it will likely have only a modest impact on sales and may lead to margin dilution, given high development costs and weaker residual values in EVs.

Oxcap analyst Stuart Pearson told Bloomberg that “"he Luce is likely a challenging aesthetic for many to digest, ourselves included, but it may provide the answer to Ferrari's China question."

The disappointment spilled over into the equity market, with Ferrari shares in Milan trading down about 6%.

On the year, the stock is down around 9% and about 40% off its high established in early 2025. Shares are currently trading around 2023 levels.

One notable takeaway from Goldman analyst Christian Frenes earlier this month was a report explaining Ferrari hybrids are depreciating far faster than their petrol-powered counterparts, suggesting buyers still prefer V-8 and V-12 combustion engines.

On top of Ferrari's shift into EVs, at a time when Lamborghini and Porsche have slowed EV plans as demand for high-end EVs remains lackluster, the car company recently reported wartime disruption to deliveries earlier this month.

At Capital Markets Day in October 2025, Ferrari set an official 2030 net revenue target of 9 billion euros, or about 800 million below expectations. Wall Street analysts were expecting 10 billion euros, adding to concerns about the company's long-term growth outlook and its strategy as it now enters EVs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 07:20

How The Deep State Weaponizes AI To Control The Narrative

The Deep State just upgraded from clunky human fact-checkers to AI that scales narrative control at lightspeed.

As Tony Seruga wrote on X:

No more paper trails, subpoenas, or exposed biases - just seamless manipulation.

Automated Shaping at Scale

AI floods zones with thousands of subtly varied "organic" rebuttals in seconds.

Pre-bunks emerging stories before they trend.

Detects your writing style, reasoning patterns, and source chains to dynamically throttle—no crude bans needed.

Infrastructure Already Live

CISA’s old “election security” coordination with platforms?

Content-agnostic and ready for new “harm” definitions.

Palantir, CrowdStrike & intel partners embed AI trained on classified data into commercial tools.

WEF’s “whole-of-society” push demands exactly this AI governance.

The Upgrade

Old fact-checkers left audit trails (funding, revolving doors).

AI is a black box: “The algorithm decided.”

Trained on curated data that associates inconvenient truths with “low quality.”

Plausible deniability baked in.

Endgame?

Not winning debates—making certain ideas unthinkable.

Never seen, never debated.

Just endless “helpful” corrections from voices that feel trustworthy.

Antidote: Think independently. Support alternative platforms. Never outsource your mind to machines or badges. Question everything.

The machine doesn’t wear a “FALSE” stamp—it whispers consensus until you believe it.

What’s your move?

Ignore at your own peril!

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 06:55

European Gas Storage Can't Survive 3 More Months Of Hormuz

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

• Europe risks a major gas storage shortfall if disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue for another 1–3 months, with inventories still far below normal seasonal levels.

• LNG supply disruptions, strong Asian demand, and distorted gas pricing have made refilling storage unusually difficult and expensive across the EU.

• Equinor warns prolonged disruptions could push Dutch TTF gas prices toward €90/MWh, forcing industrial demand destruction and fuel switching across Europe.

Europe could face a critical shortfall in natural gas stocks if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist for another 1-3 months, senior executives at Norwegian energy giant, Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR), have warned. Europe entered the current summer refill season with severely depleted gas reserves, with gas stores only 28% full following a prolonged winter. Europe’s storage levels are currently at 35-37%, significantly below the 50% seasonal norm, increasing the risk that the continent will miss its usual 90% target at the beginning of the next winter heating season. The European Union requires member states to maintain robust storage fill levels, typically targeting an 80% to 90% capacity by early winter. A combination of factors has made filling Europe's largest storage hubs a daunting task heading into the latter half of the year.

First off, heavy withdrawals during winter, driven by peak household heating, coupled with a spike in industrial power demand, depressed natural gas storage levels in Northwest Europe to below 30%, roughly double the EU's overall storage deficit. Gas levels in the Netherlands, Germany, and France fell to critically low levels before spring even began: Dutch reserves plunged to just 5.8% by the end of winter, marking the lowest level in a decade; storage levels in Germany dipped to ~20% while those in France hovered around 27% by the time spring kicked in.

Second, distorted pricing and inverted seasonal price curves have contributed to Europe’s gas crisis, with an unusual market structure wherein summer spot prices are higher than winter contracts stalling necessary storage replenishment. Dutch TTF seasonal spreads have remained in negative territory to the tune of ~€ 1.3/MWh, with the unusual backwardation disrupting the traditional dynamics of injecting gas during the cheaper summer months and withdrawing it during the colder, high-demand winter season.  Europe has also been facing an LNG squeeze, with competing global energy demands and disruptions to major LNG facilities due to the Middle East conflict making replenishing stocks highly costly. Delays and infrastructure damage at key facilities particularly in Qatar combined with a phase-out of Russian LNG have intensified global competition for spot cargoes, particularly against high demand in Asia. The inverted curve has also been partially driven by expectations of an influx of new global LNG capacity later in the year, coupled with near-term supply concerns.

EU member countries have responded to the distorted pricing mechanism using various approaches. In Italy, regulators such as ARERA and transmission system operators like Snam have introduced financial compensation schemes that allow traders to bid in auctions where the market manager pays the difference between the summer and winter gas prices at the Virtual Trading Point (PSV) to ensure storage targets are met. The situation is different in Germany, with Europe’s largest economy having historically avoided direct state subsidies to force injections, instead relying on legal mandates and market-balancing tools. Germany's Bundesnetzagentur enforces strict statutory filling targets for natural gas storage to guarantee winter supply security. Shippers and network users are legally obligated to meet specific inventory levels, and compliance is driven by market mechanisms, capacity auctions, and strategic instruments managed by Trading Hub Europe GmbH (THE). To cover costs associated with purchasing, injecting, and managing strategic gas reserves, THE utilizes a regulatory storage neutrality charge. This levy, historically applied to exit flows and network points, helps recover the costs of state-mandated storage measures.

Despite the difference in domestic incentives, both nations are subject to EU-wide regulations, requiring minimum storage levels historically targeting 80-90% of maximum capacity ahead of the winter heating season. While Italy has leaned into financial support, Germany relies on regulatory mandates, with the goal of passing storage-filling obligations onto active wholesale market participants.

Equinor has warned that whereas a quick resolution could allow for Europe to attain a manageable 75% storage level by the end of the injection season, a 1–3 month blockage would make the situation highly critical, potentially driving TTF prices toward €90/MWh. A spike in gas prices is expected to drive market corrections, including a projected 10 billion cubic meter reduction in gas-to-power demand and increased industrial fuel switching.

That said, Europe’s current gas crisis is nowhere near as dire as the situation it faced when Russia invaded Ukraine a couple of years ago. Indeed, Germany is going ahead with the privatization process for Uniper following the company's multi-billion-euro rescue during the 2022 energy crisis. Under the European Commission state aid rules that approved Berlin's 2022 bailout, Germany is legally required to reduce its shareholding to a maximum of 25% plus one share by the end of 2028. Uniper's finances have improved dramatically following a massive €40 billion net loss in 2022 triggered by the cutoff of Russian Gazprom gas. The utility won major arbitration damages, and has already begun repaying government aid. This financial health makes it highly attractive to private markets. Headquartered in Düsseldorf, Uniper is one of Germany’s largest gas importers and a key player in Europe's gas trading and storage networks.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 06:30

Japan's Auto Giants Are Losing The EV Race To China

Japan’s car industry is being forced into a major reset as Chinese automakers rapidly outpace traditional rivals in electric vehicles, software, and manufacturing speed, according to Nikkei.

The shift is especially visible at Honda Motor. In 2021, CEO Toshihiro Mibe pledged that EVs and fuel-cell vehicles would account for all new Honda sales by 2040. Last week, however, he admitted the plan was “not realistic under the current circumstances,” formally backing away from the target.

Nikkei writes that Honda’s retreat marks a sharp reversal. The company had committed trillions of yen to EVs, battery production, and a Canadian supply chain while also betting heavily on Afeela, its software-focused electric vehicle partnership with Sony Group. The project was meant to prove Japanese automakers could compete in the era of connected, software-defined cars.

Instead, Honda is cutting EV spending, delaying major factory projects, and pivoting back toward hybrids after posting its first full-year net loss since going public in 1957.

The company’s problems mirror a wider struggle across Japan’s auto sector. Nissan Motor has recorded heavy losses for two straight years, while even Toyota Motor expects another decline in annual profits.

Industry analysts say the biggest pressure is no longer coming from U.S. or European rivals, but from China. Companies such as BYD and Geely have rapidly expanded worldwide, using low-cost production, aggressive pricing, AI-assisted development, and advanced battery technology to gain market share.

Chinese firms are also moving far faster than Japanese competitors. New vehicle programs in Japan typically take four to five years to reach market, while leading Chinese brands can launch models in under two years. Their rapid rollout of new EV platforms, self-driving features, and ultra-fast charging systems has transformed China into the center of automotive innovation.

“There is no doubt that Chinese automakers are the root cause of Japanese manufacturers’ steadily declining market share,” said Masatoshi Nishimoto of S&P Global Mobility.

At the Beijing auto show this year, Chinese companies highlighted technologies that underscored the gap. BYD demonstrated a battery capable of charging from 10% to 97% in roughly nine minutes, while rivals showcased advanced autonomous-driving systems and fully digital steering and braking controls.

Japanese automakers still maintain advantages in reliability, resale value, and after-sales service, particularly in developing markets where used Japanese vehicles dominate roads and repair networks are already established. Analysts say those strengths may become increasingly important as companies focus on the Global South for growth.

That strategy is already reshaping corporate alliances. Toyota is deepening partnerships with Suzuki, Mazda, Subaru, and NTT, while Nissan and Honda continue discussing cooperation even after merger talks collapsed. Both companies are also working more closely with Chinese suppliers and technology firms to reduce costs and accelerate development.

Some executives see collaboration as essential to survival. Toyota chairman Koji Sato warned recently that “there is complete agreement on the sense of crisis” facing Japan’s auto industry.

Still, some analysts believe the scale of China’s rise may be too large to counter. As one observer put it, the challenge is no longer Toyota competing with a single rival, but with hundreds of Chinese EV brands moving simultaneously across global markets.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 05:45

Nearly 1.2 Billion People Live With Mental Disorders Globally: Study

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

There were an estimated 1.17 billion people suffering from mental disorders worldwide in 2023, up by 95.5 percent from 1990, according to a May 23 peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet journal.

The study assessed the prevalence of 12 types of mental disorders across 204 nations and territories between 1990 and 2023. Types of disorders assessed in the study included bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, major depressive disorder, and anxiety disorders. All mental disorders saw case numbers rise during the study period.

Researchers estimated there were 171 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to mental disorders in 2023. DALY is used to calculate how medical conditions and diseases affect the length and quality of life of a population. One DALY equals one year of healthy life lost due to sickness, disabilities, and death. As such, the study estimates that 171 million years of healthy life were lost in 2023 alone due to mental disorders.

Mental disorders made up 6.1 percent of all-cause DALYs in 2023 globally due to all sickness, disabilities, and deaths, making it the fifth leading cause of DALYs, up from 12th spot in 1990. Leading causes of mental disorder DALYs were anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, and schizophrenia.

“A significant health burden was imposed by mental disorders in all countries and territories in 2023, irrespective of the health resources available. In some instances, this burden has increased over time and is unevenly distributed across populations,” the study said.

“Stronger surveillance systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, are required. Additionally, we need more coordinated and inclusive policies to reduce the burden through early treatment and prevention, tailored to sex and age differences across locations.”

In a May 21 statement, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), whose researchers led the study, said that high-income regions such as Western Europe and Australasia recorded some of the highest mental disorder burden rates globally, which included countries such as Portugal, Australia, and the Netherlands. Large increases in burden rates were also identified in parts of South Asia and Western sub-Saharan Africa.

Women were more affected by mental disorders, with 620 million females estimated to be living with such a condition, compared to 552 million men.

In terms of age, mental disorders were found to disproportionately affect individuals between 15 and 19 years of age, which is a “critical developmental period that can shape trajectories for education, employment, and relationships,” said Dr. Alize Ferrari, one of the authors of the study who is an affiliate assistant professor at IHME.

The study was funded by the Gates Foundation, the University of Queensland in Australia, and Queensland Health.

US Mental Health

According to a May 19 report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, mental health is closely linked to physical health.

For instance, having depression raises the risk for various types of physical conditions such as heart disease, stroke, and diabetes.

Risk factors of mental health include lack of access to housing or education, experiencing institutional or interpersonal discrimination, social isolation, lack of economic and employment opportunities, use of drugs or alcohol, adverse childhood experiences, and ongoing or chronic medical conditions such as cancer and traumatic brain injury.

In the United States, 23 percent of adults are estimated to live with a mental health condition. Almost 6 percent of adults have a serious mental health condition that “significantly interferes” with their daily activities, the CDC said.

Among adolescents aged 12 to 17, about 20 percent are estimated to have a diagnosed mental or behavioral health condition.

A 2025 study found that committing acts of kindness is beneficial for mental health.

Volunteers insert flags at the National Memorial Cemetery of Arizona in Phoenix on May 23, 2026. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

In the study, Trinity Western University psychology professor Yeeun Archer Lee randomly assigned more than 200 participants to either take daily wellness breaks involving self-care for two weeks or perform acts of kindness every day during this period.

Lee said the study found acts of kindness to be “more effective in reducing loneliness and increasing social contact,” which is especially true for people who are highly lonely or socially anxious.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 05:00

Brussels Eyes Wealth Taxes As Europe’s Fiscal Crisis Spirals

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

A fatal fiscal dynamic has become entrenched across the European Union. In nearly every member state, public spending is accelerating at all levels — from municipalities and social insurance systems all the way up to the European Commission — while the private economy at best stagnates and its industrial core sectors visibly erode.

This dangerous economic imbalance, in which a shrinking private sector is forced to finance a continuously expanding state apparatus, is already producing fiscal consequences visible in the bond markets. Interest rates have been rising steadily for years, making debt servicing increasingly expensive, while the financing needs of public budgets continue to grow under the ruling ideology of an all-encompassing state. This widening fiscal gap is fueling political appetites for higher taxation — a destructive race among parties to squeeze taxpayers at every level has begun.

And naturally, when it comes to fleecing European taxpayers, the European Commission cannot be absent. Brussels is currently preparing its seven-year budget framework, set to exceed €2 trillion beginning in 2028.

Apollo News recently reported that the European Parliament is even demanding a further 10 percent increase in this budget ceiling. Excess, wastefulness, and a complete detachment from economic reality are driving the EU’s relentless search for new independent tax revenues.

To this end, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commissioned the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE) last year to produce a study examining the potential of wealth taxation in the EU — another brick laid in the rapidly expanding tax debate.

//-->

Bluntly put, this reflects the incestuous culture of Brussels, where academic satellites traditionally align themselves with the ideological winds of their political sponsors in order to secure taxpayer-funded grants.

The study focused primarily on the collection methods and revenue shares associated with wealth taxes, capital gains taxation, and the so-called exit tax. In other words, Europe’s tax policy is now moving toward the heart of private property itself. Brussels is unpacking the toolkit of preparatory state propaganda. Terms such as “justice gap,” “redistribution,” and “social justice” appear throughout the report, alongside the usual resentment-driven rhetorical formulas designed for one purpose only: preparing the public for a future in which the fiscal arms of European governments reach ever deeper into family wealth and long-term financial planning.

The central thesis of the CASE study is that private wealth in Europe has grown disproportionately and become increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of households. Right from the outset, however, the state itself — with its swelling bureaucracy and expensive interventionism in climate policy, the Ukraine conflict, and welfare systems — is carefully removed from scrutiny.

Not a single critical word appears in the study about the darker side of taxing citizens’ accumulated assets. Taxation today is carried out in the spirit of subservience: the taxpayer no longer possesses any meaningful voice. Instead, a debate framed around “fairness” is intended to soften the final pockets of resistance. In the end, everything is reduced to fiscal design and public relations.

One particularly revealing sign of the EU’s fiscal direction can be found in the debate surrounding the so-called exit tax. Combined with the introduction of a digital euro and the possible integration of Switzerland into the EU’s fiscal regime, escape routes for capital would effectively be sealed off. Wealthy citizens would likely flee beforehand, pulling their capital out of the EU while they still can.

What is remarkable is that politicians, institutes, and media organizations appear incapable of drawing conclusions from real-world experience. Norway’s introduction of a wealth tax triggered an exodus of the super-rich, ultimately leading to a noticeable decline in tax revenues. Understandably, Brussels now seems eager to close the gates — and has even helped ignite a wealth-tax debate in Switzerland, though this effort will likely fail. Its climate-policy framing alone makes it highly suspect to Swiss voters.

Switzerland does, of course, already levy wealth taxes at the cantonal level. But the current debate within the EU reaches much further into the direct taxation of citizens’ existing wealth than anything Switzerland has implemented thus far.

Europe’s treatment of its productive classes reveals the deeply statist spirit that now dominates the political and media establishment. The fact that the top 10 percent of income earners in Germany already contribute roughly 55 percent of all income tax revenues is no longer politically relevant. Desperate states will pull every lever available to fill the fiscal holes left behind by the green transformation.

The CASE study also aligns strikingly — both in timing and substance — with the current German debate over abolishing income splitting for married couples, increasing inheritance taxes on business assets, and reintroducing the wealth tax.

Germany already imposes a form of exit tax under certain circumstances when companies relocate abroad. What may be missing is only the Dutch approach: the comprehensive fictitious taxation of unrealized capital gains. The Netherlands is serving as the testing ground. Such taxation would likely become the next maneuver of a bloated state apparatus that has lost control of its spending.

What we are witnessing is a political class that continues to believe in building an eco-socialist surveillance state despite economic reality, visible deindustrialization, and social decay. And like every socialist project before it, environmental statism will eventually damage its host economy so severely that the laws of economics, logic, and resource scarcity will ultimately bring it down.

* * *

About the author:  Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 03:30

Finland Flourishes As Freedom Flounders In The 'Land Of The Free'

Global freedom declined for the 20th consecutive year in 2025, according to Freedom House. More than 50 countries saw political rights and civil liberties deteriorate, including the United States.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, ranks the world’s most and least free countries using Freedom House’s 2026 Freedom in the World report, which evaluates political rights and civil liberties across 195 countries and territories.

Finland topped the rankings with a perfect score of 100, followed by New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden at 99. Meanwhile, South Sudan scored 0, the lowest possible rating, highlighting the widening divide between the world’s strongest democracies and most repressive regimes.

Why Europe Dominates the Freedom Rankings

Europe accounts for most of the world’s highest-scoring countries, led by the Nordics and Western Europe. Strong electoral systems, independent courts, press freedom, and protections for civil liberties helped countries like Finland, Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands rank near the top globally.

There are two European outliers with low scores out of 100: Belarus (7) and Russia (12). Both are run by repressive autocratic regimes that have been in power for over two decades. The two Eastern European countries feature neither press independence nor free and fair elections, and rank among the least free countries worldwide.

The below data table shows the countries with the highest freedom scores in 2025:

Outside of Europe, the world’s freest countries include New Zealand (99), Canada and Uruguay (97), and Japan (96).

Within each of these countries, robust civil society and independent journalism help keep elected officials accountable, while political transitions are handled without fear of violence.

The Decline of the U.S.

Alongside Bulgaria and Italy, the United States had one of the steepest declines in its score in 2025 among countries classified as Free. The world’s leading superpower fell to a score of 81, its lowest on record, tying South Africa and falling behind Panama (82).

Over the past two decades, the U.S. score has slipped by 12 points, driven by rising polarization and political violence. The 2025 decline was caused in part by government efforts to crack down on nonviolent expression by citizens and noncitizens alike.

The weakening of anticorruption safeguards and enforcement practices by the new U.S. presidential administration was also cited as contributing to the lower score compared to previous years.

The World’s Least Free Countries

While the U.S. remains firmly classified as “Free,” the gap between democratic and authoritarian countries remains stark. The lowest-ranked countries were concentrated across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, where elections are restricted, opposition movements are suppressed, and civil liberties remain severely limited.

South Sudan, one of the world’s youngest countries, obtained the worst possible score of 0, followed by a tie between Sudan and Turkmenistan (both 1). In each of these countries, minority rights are under assault and political freedoms are nonexistent.

Larger countries across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East also rank poorly. Vietnam scored 20, while Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates tied at 18.

Three regimes in the Americas also appear within this bottom tier of Not Free countries: Cuba (9), Nicaragua (14), and Venezuela (13).

Curious to see how other countries have changed their fortunes since last year? Check out The State of Freedom Around the World on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 02:45

The Digital Euro As Europe's Backdoor Capital Control System

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The digital euro ranks among the most ambitious projects within the political architecture of the European Union. As the Eurosystem and the EU increasingly merge into identical and integrated political spaces, it can no longer be denied that this CBDC project is primarily a geopolitical power play by Brussels. Yet the euro-CBDC — shorthand for “central bank digital currency” — remains stuck in a loop. Originally envisioned years ago as already being in the project phase, the first digital wallets are now not expected before the end of 2029. Bundesbank President Nagel pointed this out in his interview with Handelsblatt.

During the interview, Nagel emerged as an articulate advocate of a euro-CBDC, despite the fact that its introduction would inevitably hand enormous power to the European Central Bank as issuer and administrator of digital wallets. This would coincide with the dismantling of core business areas currently controlled by commercial banks. Nagel downplayed the danger of large-scale capital flight from accounts held at savings banks, Deutsche Bank, and others, arguing that planned digital wallets would be capped at €3,000. With this argument, Nagel attempts to minimize the undeniable risk that the technology could later be expanded far beyond its initial limits.

Unfortunately, the interview fails to clarify the substantive difference between the CBDC envisioned for the eurozone and the already existing stablecoins, most of which are denominated in U.S. dollars. There is a fundamental distinction between programmable digital money issued by a centralized state authority and digital currency services provided by multiple competing private-sector issuers.

A full-scale battle between systems is increasingly taking shape in the realm of digital money. On one side stand European institutions pushing for systematic centralization of power. On the other side of the Atlantic lies a model that, compared with the EU approach, resembles a return to Wild West capitalism: more deregulation, a shrinking state apparatus, and in monetary policy, a gradual return to private-sector money creation through privately issued stablecoins.

Fiat-linked digital currencies, so-called stablecoins, are currently one of the hottest trends in American finance. The largest private issuer of a dollar stablecoin is Tether, whose digital dollar has now reached a market volume of roughly $190 billion. These privately issued digital dollars represent a major innovation within blockchain technology. In particular, they enable real-time transfers, operate without banking holidays, and provide access outside the traditional SWIFT system for anyone with an internet connection.

Users essentially need nothing more than a smartphone and an installed wallet app — no traditional bank account required. Another advantage lies in potentially lower fees and, in some cases, higher yields, since providers avoid the bloated administrative structures of traditional banks. Stablecoins undoubtedly represent a major increase in individual sovereignty - at least until issuers, possibly under government pressure, decide to freeze access to users’ holdings.

The fact that the eurozone has so far neither agreed on a digital CBDC control standard nor trapped citizens inside such a digital financial prison stems from several factors. One is technological. The threat posed by quantum computing dramatically intensifies the risks involved. A centralized digital financial system such as the euro-CBDC would face massive hacking attempts and manipulation from the moment of its launch. This is the classic weakness of centralized systems: they provide attackers with one clearly defined point of attack. Moreover, the European Union and the Eurosystem together form an over-bureaucratized and fully centralized power structure that inevitably lags behind current technological standards.

For precisely this reason, decentralized financial ecosystems such as the Bitcoin network are technologically superior. Bitcoin is secured by a decentralized network of independent miners and node operators. Every participant defends the structure out of direct self-interest. With well over 100 million Bitcoin holders worldwide and tens of thousands of miners, an almost impenetrable protective wall emerges. Contrary to Nagel’s remarks in the interview, the commercial banking sector is obviously also resisting the centralization of the financial system in the hands of the ECB. The reason is simple: a full rollout of the digital euro would make the traditional banking business model — accounts, savings products, and transfer services — largely obsolete.

But the real reason there has so far been relative calm on the CBDC front inside the Eurosystem becomes obvious once one observes the speed at which global capital flees crisis zones. The introduction of a CBDC would signal that the ECB intends to build in a mechanism for capital controls, possibly in anticipation of a full-scale financial or sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. A dramatic surge in interest rates triggered by a selloff in European bonds would once again force the ECB to intervene as lender of last resort, on a scale potentially far greater than anything seen during the financial and sovereign debt crises of the past decade and a half. Such intervention would inevitably raise fundamental questions about the long-term stability of the euro itself.

That the eurozone will eventually face another debt crisis is hardly in doubt. The only uncertainty is timing — namely, when bond markets, confronted with Europe’s relentless debt binge, in which even Germany is now enthusiastically participating, will finally give the thumbs down.

* * *

About the author:  Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/26/2026 - 02:00

Globalism Seeks To Kill The Nation-State

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

International government threatens the whole planet.

People are beginning to understand that those who rule in their name have long been working to eliminate the nation-state.

The United Nations is not neutral ground for national governments to discuss their differences; it is a governmental construct meant to replace national governments.  The World Health Organization is not an international body meant to coordinate complex responses to global health emergencies; it is an institution vested with vast power and authority to track and regulate every human on the planet.  The Bank for International Settlements, the World Bank Group, and the International Monetary Fund don’t exist to expand free trade, open markets, and assist developing nations; they exist to centralize control over all economic transactions in the world.

The onslaught of “green new deal” laws in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Australia, and New Zealand have nothing to do with preserving the environment or “saving the planet”; they are part of a broader U.N. initiative to track every person’s so-called “carbon footprint” in order to monitor, tax, and regulate all human activity.  The U.N.’s “climate reparations” policy has nothing to do with “justice” or “science”; it exists to justify the redistribution of wealth from Western nations to non-Western nations under the guise of “international law.”

The message we have heard all our lives is loud and clear: Nations do bad things.  International organizations do good things.

The rhetorical war on “nationalism” didn’t begin because people who are proud of their nations magically became Nazis; people who are proud of their nations are called “Nazis” so that those who rule over us can demonize the nation-state.  If you go back through newspapers and scholarly essays before WWII, “nationalism” and “patriotism” are used interchangeably.  After WWII, there is an obvious linguistic break.  “Patriotism,” for the most part, survives as an acceptable civic virtue (How else can governments send men into battle if there are no patriots?).  “Nationalism,” however, becomes increasingly used through the decades as a derogatory term linked to fascism — as if the very organizing concept of a nation-state is inherently authoritarian and anti-democratic.

Thinking about this anti-nationalism campaign for more than a second reveals its silliness.  Why would a constitutional republic with representative democracy be “fascist” at the national level but “democratic” when organized internationally?  Why would the Executive leader of a nation such as Germany, France, or the United States be more “authoritarian” than the secretary-general of the U.N. or the president of the European Commission?  Why would an international governing body be considered more “democratic” than a town, region, or nation of people governing themselves?  Why should the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, be considered Europe’s “representative leader” when the European people never voted for her to “represent” them?

The U.N. has 193 member state ambassadors representing roughly 8.3 billion people.  Why should such a minuscule parliamentary assembly be considered “democratic” or “representative” at all?  At best, it uses the veneer of “democracy” to justify imposing its authoritarian will upon all of humanity.  Whether one dictator or 193 dictators working in concert — when humanity is forced to obey the edicts of rulers, it doesn’t matter if those edicts come from a national or international body.

Natural rights and freedoms do not become more natural because 193 people in New York City say so.  God-given liberties exist despite the existence of government, not because of government.  The more people over whom a government claims jurisdiction, the less likely that any one person’s natural rights will be respected and protected.  When a citizen cannot look his “representative” in the face, his “representative” is much less concerned about infringing that citizen’s natural liberties.

International governments are no less likely to become totalitarian than national governments.  Just as Hitler’s national socialism and Mussolini’s fascism did last century, international tyranny prefers to disguise itself as something peaceful, benevolent, and for the common good.  Had Hitler successfully conquered Europe, perhaps the German Empire would have been called the European Union.  Had Hitler conquered the world, perhaps the U.N.’s headquarters would be in Berlin.  National totalitarianism becomes international totalitarianism just as easily as national mask and vaccine mandates transform into “vaccine passports” and World Health Organization mandates.

The same people who hyperventilate about President Trump’s supposed “authoritarianism” roundly applaud the authoritarianism of global institutions such as the World Health Organization.  In fact, when the president withdrew the United States from WHO on his first day back in office last year due to the international body’s mishandling of the COVID pandemic and efforts to cover up the pandemic’s origin in Wuhan, China, critics in the press accused Trump of being “scientifically reckless” and called “global cooperation” a “biological necessity.”

That’s another part of internationalism’s linguistic magic trick: The same global corporate news machine that has spent the last eighty-plus years conditioning people to understand the word “nationalism” as something evil, militant, and barbaric has simultaneously conditioned the world to see anything “international” as inherently good, peaceful, and progressive.  The “national / international” dichotomy didn’t happen by accident; it’s been shoved down our throats all our lives.  But once again, if a rational person takes a moment to consider the semantic manipulation, it is quite absurd.

If the International Monetary Fund, headquartered in Washington, D.C., were more accurately renamed the “American Monetary Fund,” would the financial institution become more suspect?  If so, then how should we view the word “international” as anything other than a verbal ruse meant to project a false message that the IMF acts on behalf of all people on the planet?  American taxpayers have principally funded the World Health Organization since its formation in 1948.  If it had been called the American Health Organization, would the press have been as upset when “authoritarian” Trump decided to stop funding it?  If not, does this not suggest that words such as “world” and “global” distort the identity and purpose of these intrusive organizations?

“Internationalism” is a Trojan Horse or at least the camel’s nose under the tent for Big Government authoritarians who wish to impose their will on the whole planet.

When “international” agents or soldiers come knocking, their mission sounds downright “humanitarian,” doesn’t it?  The United Nations has a whole Department of Peace Operations.  That department sends out military and law enforcement personnel known as “peacekeepers.”  And for decades the “peacekeepers” from the Department of Peace Operations have raped women and girls all over the world.  The “internationals” have been abusing the “nationals,” and the international United Nations and the multinational corporate news organizations have spent decades covering up all of the “internationals’” prolific raping.  International organizations dedicated to “peace” can’t be seen doing things that only “fascist” nationals do.

Big lies expose internationalism’s true intent: Internationalists are building a global empire.  This empire is authoritarian (because it demands global compliance at the expense of personal freedom) and totalitarian (because it requires complete subservience to a centralized and dictatorial global government).  There is nothing “democratic” or “representative” about this international system of governance.  It has no interest in protecting an individual’s rights and freedoms.  It has no interest in respecting a nation’s sovereignty.  It will permit both individuals and nations to be raped in the name of “global peace.”

Therefore, it makes perfect sense why the United Nations encourages mass illegal immigration into the United States and Europe.  When you are in the business of destroying nations, you do not care if murderers and rapists destroy local families.  You do not care if Islamic terrorists burn down Christian churches.  You do not care if the “newcomers” to Europe and America have pledged to conquer the West.

For globalism to win, it must first kill the nation-state.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 23:25

Healthcare Workers Dominate America's Highest-Paid Jobs

Want to earn more than $300,000 a year in America? The clearest path is still a highly specialized medical career.

This ranking of America’s highest-paying occupations uses Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data to compare mean annual wages and total U.S. employment across the country’s top-paid roles.

As Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld details below, the results show how concentrated high pay is in healthcare. They also reveal another important pattern: many of America’s best-paid jobs are held by relatively small workforces, making them some of the rarest careers in the economy.

America’s Highest-Paying Jobs

The rankings below show the 30 highest-paying occupations in the U.S. based on mean annual wages, alongside total nationwide employment levels.

Why Doctors Dominate America’s Highest-Paying Jobs

Healthcare’s dominance reflects a powerful mix of high barriers to entry, limited specialist supply, and steady demand for complex medical care.

Most of the highest-paying medical specialties require more than a decade of education and residency training, limiting the pipeline of qualified professionals. At the same time, America’s aging population is increasing demand for specialists in cardiology, radiology, oncology, and surgery.

As a result, highly specialized physicians command some of the largest salaries in the economy. Adding to this, the U.S. is projected to face a shortage of more than 141,000 physicians by 2038.

America’s Highest-Paying Jobs Are Also Among Its Rarest

Many of America’s top-paying professions employ surprisingly small numbers of workers nationwide.

For example, there are only about 1,000 pediatric surgeons across the U.S., despite the profession ranking first overall in pay. Several other elite medical specialties, including prosthodontists (760) and oral surgeons (5,000), also have relatively small workforces.

This scarcity helps explain why wages remain exceptionally high. Limited supply continues to collide with growing healthcare demand and an aging population with rising rates of chronic illness.

The Highest-Paying Jobs Outside Healthcare

Outside of healthcare, only a handful of roles break into the upper tier of U.S. pay, led by aviation and executive management.

Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers ($280.6K) rank among the country’s highest-paid workers as aviation faces persistent pilot shortages. Meanwhile, chief executives ($262.9K), financial managers ($180.5K), and architectural and engineering managers ($175.7K) command high salaries due to their leadership responsibilities and oversight of complex operations.

Will America’s Highest-Paying Jobs Change?

Despite rapid advances in AI and automation, many of America’s highest-paying jobs remain difficult to replace.

Specialized surgeons, anesthesiologists, and pilots operate in highly regulated environments that require years of hands-on training and real-time decision-making. These barriers continue to shield many elite professions from automation pressures reshaping other parts of the workforce.

At the same time, healthcare spending is forecast to grow faster than the broader economy through 2033, helping sustain strong demand and high salaries for specialized physicians.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the best places to work in America in 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2026 - 22:50