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"Resetting Business": Xbox Layoffs Loom As New CEO Supercharges Overhaul

"Resetting Business": Xbox Layoffs Loom As New CEO Supercharges Overhaul

Microsoft's Xbox gaming division is preparing for a major round of job cuts at the end of the month as new Xbox CEO Asha Sharma moves to "reset" the unit amid a confluence of negative and worsening pressures, including shrinking revenue, soft hardware sales, plateauing Game Pass momentum, and what management now describes as an ongoing "hardware component crisis."

Bloomberg first reported that Microsoft will announce an upcoming round of layoffs after the company's fiscal year ends on June 30. The report was based on sources familiar with the upcoming restructuring plan, though it did not mention whether AI adoption and efficiency gains are driving the cuts.

In a memo to staff, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma and Matt Booty said the gaming division's first 100 days under new leadership showed early signs of progress.

"Now we start the next 100 days. It is important to have both optimism and realism as we work to reset the business," the executives wrote in the memo titled "Next 100 Days: XBOX Reset."

They continued, "Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue."

The memo outlined Xbox's harsh realities it must navigate to achieve a turnaround strategy:

1. Over 1 billion players choose to play XBOX and our games each year, for a total of 72 billion hours across Console, PC, Mobile, and Streaming (excluding much of China and a few other properties). Our franchises are also among the largest and most beloved globally and are now breaking records in TV and film. Going forward, our competition is attention. There are more great games, TV series, franchises, creators, content formats, apps, etc., than ever before

2. We will end this fiscal year at about a 3% accountability margin, down year-over-year. Excluding Activision Blizzard King, over the past five years, we have spent over $20 billion on ongoing investments in our content, platform, and hardware subsidy, but our annual revenue has declined nearly half a billion during that time. Going forward, this cannot continue.

3. We are in a hardware component crisis. When I joined as CEO in February, the price we paid for console storage components was over 2x as high as we paid last fall. These costs have since doubled again. And as we plan for the 2027 holiday season, we expect another significant increase, taking us over 5x the prices we paid only two years earlier. Memory costs have followed a broadly similar trajectory. While the entire industry is facing a components crisis, we believe we have been impacted more greatly than many of our peers due to the choices we made over the last half decade. We are currently unable to make as many consoles as players want to buy, and we need a new business model and partnerships for hardware as we remain committed to Helix.

4. We expanded our studio system when we needed a pipeline of content to meet multiple strategies across subscription, streaming, and devices. In the process, we have found ourselves over extended as we executed on changing strategies in a landscape of more readily available content. We are the fortunate stewards of industry-defining franchises that have enormous potential and player demand, but we have not adequately funded them to compete and win. At the same time, as we saw this past weekend at Showcase, a reliable pipeline of first- and third-party exclusives and new IP are critical to our success. We need to reassess the balance between these and our investment priorities for the next 5 years.

5. Our current platform infrastructure is not built for the battle ahead. Our systems are overly complex, spanning hundreds of dependencies, which hinders our ability to move fast. We've become too reliant on vendors to operate our systems and must become more self-reliant as an engineering culture to build for the future. We must increase the value we ship to players while decreasing the time it takes to do so. Going forward, we'll evolve and rebuild our stack and look at capabilities across all of XBOX and potential M&A to help us win in hardware, PC, mobile, and streaming.

In February, the CEO told the audience at the Bloomberg Tech conference that she planned on "resetting the business," which was "not in a healthy spot."

Xbox and the entire gaming industry have faced mounting headwinds.

TD Securities analyst Doug Creutz pointed out Thursday that mobile gaming remains strong, but console gaming has lost momentum this year:

Industry View: Mobile Had a Really Strong Q1; Tempering Console Expectations

We believe U.S. mobile game spending grew +14% y/y in Q1, comfortably above our expectations, based on reported results at public companies. Note that our model does at least attempt to incorporate the impact of what are rapidly growing DTC businesses across the industry. We expect +10% y/y growth in U.S. mobile game spending for 2026. On the other hand, we previously reduced our 2026 console global software/services spending estimate from +7% y/y to +1% y/y based on (1) the impact of the recent price cut to Xbox Game Pass and (2) the apparent lack of a tentpole title in Nintendo's 2026 slate.

Xbox reaches more than 1 billion players annually across console, PC, mobile, and streaming, but can't generate profits? It may be time for AI and automation to streamline the gaming unit, which likely means layoffs are imminent.

The gaming industry is waiting for the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year to rekindle demand.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 06:55

China Is Learning To Use Less Oil, And That's A Bigger Deal Than It Sounds

China Is Learning To Use Less Oil, And That's A Bigger Deal Than It Sounds

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Three months into the biggest oil supply disruption in modern history, China appears to have discovered something that should make oil bulls at least a little uncomfortable.

It can get by on less fuel than anyone thought.

China's gasoline and diesel demand has been falling for years as electric vehicles gained market share and economic growth slowed. But the latest drop has surprised even seasoned observers.

According to Reuters, gasoline sales at Sinopec, China's largest refiner and fuel retailer, fell 8% year over year in April, while diesel sales dropped 6%. Goldman Sachs estimates that consumption of gasoline and related products may have fallen by as much as 20%.

China has slashed crude imports since the Iran war began, with May imports plunging 29% to 7.8 million barrels per day—the lowest level in eight years. Until recently, many analysts viewed those cuts primarily as a function of China's enormous oil stockpile and high crude prices.

Now another explanation is emerging: China may simply need less fuel.

Rail travel rose roughly 10% in March and April. Subway ridership continues to climb. Electric taxis are becoming increasingly common. Most notably, EV charging volumes surged 69% from a year earlier to a record high in April, according to the China Charging Alliance.

That shift comes as China's refiners are already grappling with weaker economics. Sinopec cut refining runs earlier this year as Middle Eastern supply disruptions squeezed crude availability, while Beijing has sharply reduced fuel exports to preserve domestic supplies.

The property downturn isn't helping either. Diesel demand from construction, long one of China's most reliable sources of consumption growth, continues to weaken as projects stall and budgets tighten.

The question now is whether the trend sticks.

China's refiners can only draw on inventories for so long. The country still maintains one of the world's largest crude stockpiles, but even a billion barrels eventually run out. At some point, imports will need to recover.

What remains unclear is whether gasoline demand will recover with them.

For decades, China's economic growth was one of the oil market's most dependable bullish arguments. Today’s reports may have some rethinking the strength of that argument.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 06:30

BofA Sees "Runaway Price Risk" In Spot Sulfur As Global Supply Chain Freezes

BofA Sees "Runaway Price Risk" In Spot Sulfur As Global Supply Chain Freezes

Sulfur is a critical industrial input produced as a byproduct of oil refining and natural gas processing. With roughly half of the world's seaborne sulfur trade trapped behind the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, another 15% stuck in Kazakhstan due to export-logistics blockades, and demand destruction still insufficient across global markets, Bank of America analysts warn that spot sulfur prices have further upside potential.

Matthew DeYoe, research analyst at BofA Securities, covering all things ag, materials, and chemicals, wrote in a note, "The market is working through unprecedented supply shortages, and prices are inflecting accordingly. Spot sulfur is now ~$1,200/mt, vs a more normal <$200/mt longer term price."

"The inflation is destroying demand across some industries, notably phosphates and pulp & paper, but we are not killing demand fast enough, and margins for metals like copper and lithium are strong enough to keep prices bid," DeYoe noted.

DeYoe said his team spoke earlier this week with Fiona Boyd of Acuity Commodities about global sulfur and sulfuric acid markets, coming away with a clear takeaway: the market is facing an unprecedented supply shock, yet demand destruction has not gone far enough. With supply trapped behind the Hormuz chokepoint, export logistics disrupted in Kazakhstan, and metals producers still able to absorb higher input prices, Boyd warned that spot sulfur prices likely have more upside from here.

DeYoe warned, "Hormuz + Kazakhstan + Russia = runaway price risk."  

He explained further:

Roughly 50% of the world's seaborn traded sulfur is caught behind the SOH and another 15% is trapped in Kazakhstan given export logistic blockades. In total this represents ~30% of the world's sulfur capacity, though it is compounded by sulfuric acid export bans from China and a 3-4mn tonne shortfall to annual Russian exports on account of attacks by Ukraine. Inventory liquidation is helping to buffer, notably in China, which is drawing down its stocks, and Canada, which has ample supply. However, the latter is expensive and slow to mobilize, while the former is running out (Boyd expects 2-4 weeks of safety stock left). Because sulfur is largely a processing byproduct, it is price inelastic, so don't expect more supply because economics are better. Alternatives, such as pyrite, are increasingly sought, but it can't fill the hole. This all puts upside risk to sulfur price.

The near-term fix for the energy crunch, which extends far beyond sulfur markets, is reopening the Hormuz chokepoint. Yet DeYoe warned that even if Hormuz were reopened soon, it would take months to rebalance the market and repair damaged assets. This suggests prices will remain elevated through the end of the year.

Related coverage on the sulfur market:

DeYoe highlights that Mosaic is in focus. Sulfuric acid is a key input for phosphate fertilizer production, and Mosaic relies on sulfur from US Gulf Coast refineries. He noted that high sulfur costs could pressure Mosaic's second-half profits and cash flow, potentially requiring a debt raise. He also added that the odds of US government intervention to restrict sulfur exports to protect domestic DAP fertilizer production could increase.

Professional subscribers can find much more on Gulf energy shock here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 05:45

Traders Are Shorting Oil As If The Hormuz Crisis Is Over

Traders Are Shorting Oil As If The Hormuz Crisis Is Over

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • Oil traders are increasingly betting on lower prices, with short positions in Brent crude tripling since late March despite the loss of roughly 13 million bpd of supply from the Middle East.

  • Physical market fundamentals are tightening rapidly, as global inventories have fallen by about 250 million barrels and key storage hubs like Cushing are approaching critically low levels.

  • Analysts warn the market may be underestimating supply risks, with even a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely to provide immediate relief.

In yet another sign that the paper oil market may be too complacent about the magnitude of the supply disruption in the Middle East, trades have been boosting their short positions in oil futures for most of the past two months.

Since the beginning of April, portfolio managers have been increasingly betting that oil prices would fall, according to the latest available commitment of traders (COT) data from exchanges as of June 2.

Shorts on Brent Crude tripled between the end of March and the beginning of June, per the data compiled by energy analyst John Kemp.

As of June 2, the short positions in Brent Crude had jumped to their highest level since January, when the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the market expected increased supply from Venezuela in the coming months.

The surge in short positions and the weeks-long selloff of longs in the past eight weeks suggest traders are betting that supply will be restored soon.

The paper market plays on hopes, expectations, sentiments, and fears, and the sum of all these right now appears to be that the hedge fund and portfolio manager community is reluctant to bet on a summer of actual physical supply shortages.

But the paper market may soon face the reality of crumbling global inventories, including in the United States, where stocks at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI Crude, are just a few weeks away from dropping to minimum operational levels.

Too much noise about the ceasefire, which is being tested almost daily with one strike or a retaliatory hit after another, doesn’t help the paper market that may have become too detached from the magnitude of the supply loss.

Traders react to every signal of ‘imminent deal’ with selloffs, only to start buying oil futures again when Israeli strikes in Lebanon, U.S. ‘self-defense’ strikes on Iran, or Iranian hits at regional infrastructure threaten to unravel the fragile ceasefire.

All the while, paper market participants continue to hope for an imminent resolution and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that would flood the market with oil. And that’s been their hope for three and a half months now.

The thing is, even a full reopening of the Strait would not lead to immediate relief for buyers. First, ship owners and operators will need to have guarantees that they wouldn’t be caught off-guard with stranded tankers again. Then, the oil cargoes will need weeks to reach buyers—weeks that the market may not have amid peak summer demand season.

The world has lost about 13 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its market report for May.

“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said, adding that observed global inventories, including oil on water, were drawn down by 250 million barrels over March and April, or by 4 million bpd.

Sooner rather than later, oil on water volumes and onshore inventories will be depleted, leaving demand destruction the only buffer to cap oil price spikes.

Moreover, the extreme price volatility and the noise about a deal coming any day now are sidelining part of the trader community.

“Participants continue to sit on the sidelines, given the market's fluidity, uncertainty, and headline-driven nature,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note on Wednesday.

“This is reflected in the aggregate open interest in ICE Brent, which has continued to trend lower and stands at its lowest level since August 2025.”

Many traders have been shorting oil since April in the hope that the ceasefire and the negotiations would yield a peace deal before the world runs out of buffers to offset most of the supply disruption.

“The buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started and over the next few weeks,” Chevron’s CEO Mike Wirth said at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference at the end of May.

“We're likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there's more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July.”

According to the Wednesday note of ING’s strategists, “With no imminent deal in sight and with the global oil market tightening significantly every day, we see upside to prices, particularly if these disruptions linger into the third quarter, a period of seasonally stronger oil demand.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/12/2026 - 05:00

Australian Financial Watchdogs Back New Powers To Curb Money-Laundering Via Crypto

Australian Financial Watchdogs Back New Powers To Curb Money-Laundering Via Crypto

Authored by Rex Widerstrom via The Epoch Times,

Australian crime-fighting and financial agencies are moving to prevent the use of cryptocurrency for money laundering, scams, and money-mule activities.

Illustration of Bitcoin and Ethereum coins held together in front of diverses EURO banknotes in Paris, France, on June 5, 2026. Joao Luiz Bulcao/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

The Australian Banking Association (ABA), Transparency International, and the regulator, AUSTRAC (Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre), are backing a proposal to amend the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act.

The change means the CEO of AUSTRAC can limit or stop a "reporting entity" or institution from using a "high-risk mechanism," such as cryptocurrency, to transfer funds.

The CEO must be satisfied that transferring funds has or will cause "significant harm to either the financial system, the Australian community, or both."

Currently, there are around 19,000 reporting entities, including banks and credit unions; non-bank lenders and stockbrokers; gambling and bullion service providers; and remittance service and virtual asset service providers (VASPs).

All are required to have processes and controls in place to protect their systems from criminal misuse.

Yet that number will soon expand to over 100,000 when new sectors, including lawyers, accountants, conveyancers, real estate professionals, and dealers in precious metals and stones, come under Australia's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regime from July 1 this year.

Sector-Wide Powers Needed, AUSTRAC Argues

Senator Michaela Cash asked what evidence suggested AUSTRAC's current powers were inadequate.

Daniel Mossop, the centre's national manager for policy rules, said current law mandated that the agency take a case-by-case approach, looking at individual businesses.

"What we can't do is have a look at a sector or a channel or a product and say, 'On the basis of what we are seeing here, there is an unacceptable risk,' [and] when you're dealing with really high-risk things, [it] becomes more inefficient.

"What we've seen over the last few years is a proliferation of new channels, payment methods, and products ... the real diversification of the market.

"When we have looked at some of these channels, what we have seen is high levels of criminal misuse in particular sectors, and that has caused us, along with the department [of Home Affairs], to start questioning whether the policy and legislative settings are right to deal with that type of threat," Mossop said.

Cash then asked officials whether they would support a change requiring the AUSTRAC CEO to report to Parliament on any prohibitions imposed.

Andrew Warnes, first assistant secretary of Home Affairs' criminal justice division, said there would be a "range of information" available and that lawmakers could always overturn the CEO's decision.

"We do not expect the power will be used particularly regularly," Warnes said.

"It will be a power that will be used occasionally, at best, based on our discussions with AUSTRAC. And when you look at the use of other powers in AUSTRAC's legislation, this is going to sit at the higher end, and you will have that parliamentary review, ostensibly of [every decision].

"A review mechanism is ultimately a matter for parliament, if it wants to do it. I expect this will be used on such a sparse occasion that your review will only be looking at one example. The next mechanism that might be banned might not have even been invented yet."

Crypto ATMs Major Area Of Concern

One are of concern is cryptocurrency ATMs, which have proliferated from 23 machines in 2019 to about 2,000 today - Australia has the third highest volume of such machines globally.

AUSTRAC told the committee it estimates that almost 150,000 transactions, totalling over $275 million, occur every year via crypto ATMs, with about 99 percent being cash deposits to make purchases.

The ABA says (pdf) they have been linked to "significant scam-related activity, high-risk cash-based transactions, and the rapid movement of illicit funds."

The recent Crypto Crime Report, shows a 162 percent year-on-year increase in the amount of cryptocurrency received by criminals.

That led the ABA to suggest the new powers be used on that channel than on banks.

"Banks are already subject to prudential supervision by APRA (Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority) and market conduct regulation by ASIC (Australian Securities and Investment Commission), both of which hold comparable product intervention powers," said Chris Taylor, the ABA's chief of policy.

"Extending the AUSTRAC CEO's power to ADIs (Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions) creates overlapping regulatory authority without a corresponding uplift in risk mitigation."

Further, crypto ATMs charge fees of up to 17 to 19 percent, or more, on the purchase of cryptocurrency.

"There's clearly some degree of consumer harm or some risk of consumer harm going on," Taylor argued.

"AUSTRAC's data is clearly showing that people who are using these ATMs are either themselves subject to a scam or they are involved in money mule activities, which is helping to move criminal proceeds, either from scams or from other types of illicit activities, so we really struggle to see a legitimate use case here."

A large number of scam victims tricked into sending money via crypto ATMs were elderly, Taylor said.

"When AUSTRAC first released this data, they talked about an 85-year-old woman who had physically fed in, over the course of a year, $325,000 of her life savings. That's heartbreaking."

The banks also want the period during which any channel was prohibited to be reduced from 3 years to 18 months, in line with the powers of ASIC.

Transparency International supported the bill, saying in its submission that, "For too long, Australia has been a major destination for kleptocrats, organised crime gangs, and corrupt officials to wash their illicit funds. Much of this dirty money flows out of low and middle-income countries."

The bill also amends the meaning of financing terrorism to include new offences of providing monetary support to a state sponsor of terrorism.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 20:05

Cops Bust India-Based Gold Scam Before Widow Loses $700K

Cops Bust India-Based Gold Scam Before Widow Loses $700K

A widow who was told her Social Security funds were being used to support terrorism nearly lost $700,000 in a gold scam, according to WOOD ABC 8.  

The fraudsters convinced her to buy gold, but a suspicious coin dealer alerted authorities before the transaction could be completed. Ben Soldaat, owner of Grand Rapids Coins, noticed several red flags. The woman seemed confused, unusually urgent, and showed little interest in the gold itself. Concerned she was being manipulated, he contacted the Kent County Sheriff’s Office.

Investigators learned the woman had been told by a caller posing as a Social Security agent that criminals were using her account for terrorism, drug trafficking, and money laundering. She was instructed to buy gold so law enforcement could supposedly track the offenders.

Yug Chauhan

Working with detectives, authorities set up a sting operation. Instead of real gold, an undercover officer posing as the woman delivered a package of chocolate gold coins to the courier sent to collect it.

The report says that the courier, 20-year-old Yug Chauhan of Illinois, was arrested and charged with false pretenses over $100,000 and using a computer to commit a crime—both 20-year felonies.

Investigators believe the scam originated in India and are continuing to pursue those behind it.

Officials say gold-related scams targeting seniors are becoming increasingly common nationwide, often involving callers who impersonate government agents. They stress that family members and businesses play a critical role in spotting warning signs before victims lose their savings.

The targeted woman ultimately recovered her money and later thanked Soldaat for intervening. She hopes her experience serves as a warning to others, noting that many scam victims are not as fortunate.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 19:40

Raising Girls Who Won't Be Bullied Off The Starting Line

Raising Girls Who Won't Be Bullied Off The Starting Line

Authored by Patti Garibay via RealClearPolitics,

The parents of California high school track athlete Reese Hogan did something no parent should have to do. They went to the press to ask why Gov. Gavin Newsom is fine letting a biological boy compete against their daughter for a girls' title. Reese put in the hard work required for a girl to take home the title. Reese is the one who deserves the trophy. But in 2026, asking for a fair race makes you the troublemaker.

A few hundred miles up the coast, Nicki Minaj said she's done biting her tongue. Her California home keeps getting "swatted," and Newsom's office hasn't lifted a finger. She accuses Jay-Z and Roc Nation of trying to destroy her career.

To be clear, Minaj has made choices and taken positions many conservative Christians wouldn't endorse. But that's precisely what makes this so revealing. Even someone who once fit in so comfortably within an elite cultural crowd can be cast out the moment she refuses total ideological conformity. She has become a whistleblower of what many women already knew: The woke crowd celebrates women only as long as they stay compliant. The second you deviate from the approved script, you're on your own.

Let's think about that for a minute. A rap star with millions of fans feels she's run out of room in today's celebrity culture. If she can't speak her mind, what hope does a stay-at-home mom in Cincinnati have when she shows up to a school board meeting?

These examples illustrate that feminism is no longer about women. It's about sticking to a script. Question the script - about your body, your faith, your daughter's locker room, your right to stay home and raise babies - and the same crowd that once chanted about your "liberation" will call you a danger to society.

Our girls grow up watching this unfold, learning very early what kind of woman this culture will tolerate.

Nowhere is the script more obvious than in the fawning reception over the new novel "Yesteryear." The book imagines a so-called "tradwife" taken back to 1855 to suffer for the sin of choosing motherhood and modesty. The reviews are exhausting. The point is not subtle. Women who choose home, husband, and Sunday morning church are to be pitied or mocked. Never mind that those women are some of the happiest people I know. Never mind that the moms I meet for coffee tell me their grandmothers had something we lost, and they want it back.

More than 30 years ago, mothers like me looked at what the Girl Scouts had become and knew we needed an alternative. Our daughters deserved more than moral relativism dressed up as girl power. We started with 10 American Heritage troops in Cincinnati. Today we have tens of thousands of members across the country. Not just because we are counter-cultural, but because we are anchored, and we're clear about who these girls are and Whose they are.

Here's what clarity looks like for girls today. It's a seven-year-old learning to tie a square knot and pray confidently out loud with her troop for the first time. It's a 12-year-old earning her camping badge while learning the simple, biological fact that God created us male and female. It's a high-schooler putting her phone in a basket at troop meetings and rediscovering what her own voice sounds like.

That is the future. It is bold and brave in a way that the loudest voices cannot tolerate. It's a simple yet profound message I will keep sharing with young girls every chance I get. I hope other women break free of perceived barriers about what women should say or think. When they do, they'll find genuine freedom in choosing courage, conviction, and clarity, and stepping into the calling God himself placed on their lives.

To Nicki, and to every woman who feels she has been kicked out of a club she didn't even want to join, I would say this: You are not crazy, and you are not alone. Real freedom was never found in burning down every wholesome thing your great-grandmother believed in. That isn't liberation. It's just a new kind of bondage, dressed up as progress. Real freedom is what God designed for us from the beginning - life inside the guardrails of His perfect love and wisdom.

To the parents of Reese Hogan, and to every parent watching this nonsense and wondering if anyone is paying attention: We are. We are raising girls who will grow into women who refuse to be bullied off the starting line.

The feminism our culture peddles today has decided to trash women. But common-sense Americans will be over here doing what we have always done - raising bold and brave girls, one campfire and one prayer at a time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 19:15

Trump Nominates US Attorney Jay Clayton As Director Of National Intelligence

Trump Nominates US Attorney Jay Clayton As Director Of National Intelligence

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on Thursday said he is nominating Jay Clayton, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, to be his director of national intelligence.

The move comes weeks after former intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard said she is stepping down from the role.

Trump, in announcing the decision on Truth Social, wrote that “few people anywhere” in the legal community have as much respect as Clayton, the former head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), whom the president also described as “highly respected.”

“I encourage the United States Senate to confirm Jay as soon as possible,” he wrote in the post.

Last month, Gabbard announced she was stepping down as the head of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) because her husband was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer.

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte was named by Trump to serve as acting director in a move that drew pushback from Democratic and some Republican lawmakers.

Pulte will serve as the acting U.S. intelligence chief and would take over from Gabbard later in June, Trump said on Tuesday.

Last week, the president told the Wall Street Journal that he would encourage Pulte to downsize parts of the intelligence office, which oversees 18 federal agencies and units.

“I’d like to see it smaller. I think there are a lot of people in there that shouldn’t be there,” Trump said on June 5, adding that Pulte has broader latitude to make significant changes due to his being the acting head of the ODNI.

“You’re less shackled,” he said. “It sort of gives you more power, you know, for a somewhat limited period of time.”

Going further, Trump suggested that the ODNI could even be “terminated” in its entirety, noting that a similar downsizing process was undertaken at the Department of Education.

“We’ve made the Department of Education much smaller, and likewise, this should be much smaller,” he added.

Trump praised Pulte as a “very smart guy” while speaking to reporters last week and added that he “may find out some things about the rigged elections.”

The decision to name Pulte as acting director, however, prompted Democratic opposition to renew Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) in a vote earlier this week.

“Just voted NO again on a clean FISA reauthorization. We shouldn’t allow the government to conduct warrantless surveillance of Americans—especially with Bill Pulte in charge,” Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) wrote in a post on X as the House failed to extend the provision.

Some Republican senators, meanwhile, indicated they would not have voted to appoint Pulte if Trump nominated him.

“The Senate doesn’t have any role to play in terms of confirming acting officials, but I see no evidence of any qualifications for that job,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told The Hill about Pulte.

Clayton had served as head of the SEC from May 2017 until December 2020.  He also served as the head of the prominent law firm Sullivan & Cromwell, one of the largest in the world.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 18:25

One Forgotten Housing Supply-Side Lever Could Unfreeze Affordability

One Forgotten Housing Supply-Side Lever Could Unfreeze Affordability

Rental affordability remains far superior to mortgage affordability, with the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate trending around 6.5% in early June. With home prices still at record highs, last week's housing report showing sellers pulling listings at a near-record pace as buyers balk at prices is yet another warning sign that the frozen housing market remains well intact.

The Trump administration's affordable housing strategy focuses on market deregulation, expanded homeownership, stricter citizenship requirements for federal housing assistance, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchasing $200 billion of their own mortgage-backed securities to artificially lower mortgage rates and increase home affordability.

Even with all that, the housing market remains locked in a deep freeze into early summer, as the math for prospective homebuyers just does not add up, largely due to a housing shortage.

JPMorgan analysts recently said that the current housing shortage of around 2.8 million homes could take about 10 years to resolve. That is simply not enough time for the Trump administration to make good on its promise to unfreeze the market, as younger generations are forced into rentals.

But there is good news: Goldman analysts led by Arun Manohar outlined that manufactured housing remains one of the most underused affordability tools, as the estimated housing shortage is well north of 3 million and as high as 4 million homes.

Manohar pointed out that shipments of manufactured homes averaged about 265,000 units annually before 2000, but plunged to around 80,000 per year since 2010 after the 1990s boom ended in delinquencies, tighter lending standards, and more zoning restrictions.

"One approach for increasing the supply of homes at more affordable price points is to promote access to manufactured housing," Manohar wrote in the report last week.

Manufactured homes now account for about 6% of owner-occupied U.S. housing, down slightly from roughly 7% in 2010. There are about 8.4 million manufactured housing units nationwide, mostly concentrated in the South and Southeast.

Mostly situated in rural areas.

... and typically have less square footage than a traditional single-family home.

Manohar continued that these manufactured housing units are "residences that are prefabricated in a factory setting and then transported to their final location for installation," adding, "This method not only streamlines the construction process but also offers significant cost savings compared to traditional site-built homes, making manufactured housing a promising solution for those seeking affordable housing options."

Manufactured homes are cheaper and faster to build than stick-built homes.

These tiny homes could be a meaningful supply-side lever to improve housing affordability, especially for lower-income and first-time buyers, as the frozen housing market is expected to take years to normalize.

How To Profit

Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 18:00

Karen Bass' Brother Joins Class-Action Lawsuit Against Karen Bass over LA Wildfires

Karen Bass' Brother Joins Class-Action Lawsuit Against Karen Bass over LA Wildfires

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

The brother of embattled Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass has sued the very city government his sister leads, alleging officials failed to protect homeowners and business owners during the destructive Palisades Fire.

Kenneth Bass and his wife Cindy joined a class-action lawsuit in May against the City of Los Angeles, alleging the city failed to fill the Santa Ynez Reservoir when the wildfire broke out on January 7, 2025, according to multiple reports.

The lawsuit, filed on May 18, was first reported by L.A. Material.

It includes more than 180 plaintiffs and names multiple defendants, including the Bass-run Los Angeles Department of Water and Power.

In the lawsuit, Kenneth Bass alleged he and his wife suffered smoke inhalation injuries, as well as emotional distress stemming from the destruction of their home.

The couple previously owned a property with a pool and panoramic views of the Malibu Pier, according to L.A. Material.

Mayor Bass has publicly referenced her family's loss, telling reporters in 2025: "The loss that you're going through, I share indirectly. It's hit my family too."

Bass adviser Yusef Robb dismissed questions about the lawsuit, telling reporters that there was "nothing new here."

"Thousands of people are plaintiffs in this action, which names 18 public and private sector defendants," Robb added.

A spokesperson for the Los Angeles City Attorney's Office downplayed the lawsuit, saying the city is confident it is not liable for the wildfires.

Meanwhile, a Frantz Law Group attorney representing Kenneth Bass told the California Post the lawsuit is part of a broader mass tort process and said his family ties are "irrelevant" to his claims.

"As part of the mass tort legal process, Mr. and Mrs. Bass' names were formally added as some of the nearly 40,000 victims who suffered losses," the attorney stated. "Their family connections are irrelevant, and as non-public citizens they are entitled to respectful privacy as they pursue their legal rights along with all represented victims."

Bass was elected mayor in 2022, after serving for over a decade in the U.S. House of Representatives. She is facing a tough re-election campaign amid criticism over her administration's handling of the wildfire response.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 17:00

New CFTC Prediction Market Proposal Would Ban War And Terrorism Bets While Allowing Sports Markets

New CFTC Prediction Market Proposal Would Ban War And Terrorism Bets While Allowing Sports Markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has unveiled a proposed framework for prediction markets that would prohibit contracts tied to violent or harmful events, including terrorism, war, and political assassinations, while largely preserving sports-based markets, according to Bloomberg.

Under the proposal, "gaming" would be interpreted more narrowly, focusing on activities driven primarily by chance. As a result, most existing sports event contracts would remain permissible.

According to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, the agency's goal is to "protect the integrity of our regulated markets without standing in the way of responsible innovation."

The proposal is intended to modernize and clarify how event contracts are evaluated, replacing broad restrictions with a more targeted approach. Dorothy DeWitt, a former CFTC market oversight official, said the framework "provides clarity as to what types of contracts are unlikely to be readily susceptible to manipulation."

Bloomberg writes that the regulator also signaled concern about contracts whose outcomes can be influenced by a single individual or specific in-game actions, suggesting those markets may face heightened scrutiny.

The initiative follows the rapid expansion of prediction markets after legal victories opened the door to election and sports-related contracts. As trading activity and investor interest continue to grow, the industry has sought clearer guidance on which markets are acceptable under federal oversight.

Supporters view the proposal as a step toward a more predictable regulatory environment that could encourage further investment and participation. Critics argue it risks legitimizing gambling-like activity within financial markets and could divert the agency from its traditional mission.

The proposal marks another milestone in the ongoing debate over how prediction markets should be regulated and where the line between investing and wagering should be drawn.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 16:40

Even 'Trust The Election' Pundits Are Suspicious

Even 'Trust The Election' Pundits Are Suspicious

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

California’s rigged elections are difficult to defend...

California Democrats have rigged another election, and outsider Spencer Pratt has been bumped from the Los Angeles mayoral race.  On Election Day, Pratt’s lead over third-place Nithya Raman was so large that she publicly cried over her loss.  After a week of mail-in-ballot shenanigans, Raman has surged to secure a coveted spot on the November ballot — a statistical improbability in any jurisdiction familiar with arithmetic and basic ethics.

This “come from behind victory” has made it difficult for the usual election-fraud-deniers to pretend that California’s elections are free, fair, legal, or remotely based in reality.  I noticed that National Review writer Dan McLaughlin — who spent a lot of time after 2020’s stolen election defending Joe Biden’s “victory” — felt compelled to make this small concession: “I’m suspicious of the voting in LA.  For now, in the absence of evidence, that’s just vague suspicion unsupported by proof, but the vote-counting process reeks.”

I wrote a number of essays describing the historic irregularities of the 2020 election after Joe Biden supposedly “won” more than fifteen million extra votes than Barack Obama had secured in his re-election victory.  In the 2020 election, President Trump won almost every traditional bellwether county across the country by double-digits.  He expanded his voter support in almost every demographic and did better with black voters than any Republican since Eisenhower.  He exceeded expectations in swing states.  Economic variables and historic precedent strongly forecast a Trump victory.  It was entirely reasonable to look at the statistical improbabilities of the 2020 election outcome (another race that was “decided” more than four days after Election “Day”) and conclude that the numbers did not make sense.  It was entirely appropriate for Americans to gather outside the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and demand that Congress refrain from certifying an election irreparably tainted by mail-in-ballot fraud.  Nevertheless, McLaughlin took time to mock me (and many others) and suggest that I had never heard of “split-ticket” voting.  McLaughlin-type pundits have a difficult time understanding anybody who doesn’t blithely repeat back talking points mass-distributed by the corporate “news” machine.

It strikes me as ridiculous that McLaughlin finds it necessary to couch his “suspicions” about California’s elections behind verbal acknowledgments that, absent “evidence” and “proof” of fraud, no clear conclusions can be drawn.  If you arrive home to find your front door smashed open, your house ransacked, and all your valuables missing, it is not a “vague suspicion” to conclude that your home has been burgled.  I get the sense that McLaughlin would tell police, “In the absence of evidence, any conclusion that I’m the victim of burglary is just vague suspicion unsupported by proof.”  I think this is why common-sense Americans have no interest in listening to pundits these days; doing so requires a level of pretending that makes most people feel dirty.

I don’t know Dan.  Maybe he’s a nice guy.  Maybe he believes what he writes.  But he seems like somebody who would defend a future Democrat president who rounds all of us up into “MAGA Camps,” so long as CNN quoted Eric Holder as saying that the whole thing was legal and right.  At some point, a person has to put his “thinking cap” on and start asking questions.  Government bureaucrats and politicians are not truth-tellers; they’re propagandists.  If you don’t have the sand to question authority, you’re just a parrot begging for a cracker.  And if California’s most recent rigged election is the first time you’ve had “vague suspicions” about the legitimacy of America’s elections, then your punditry has the same whiff of freshness as a carriage horse’s bun bag.

Across the board, Americans do not trust the election process. 

 Every presidential election since the 2000 contest between Bush and Gore (which took thirty-five days to settle) has been sullied by allegations of fraud, disenfranchisement, illegal voting, ballot spoilage, electoral violations, and all manner of ethical misconduct.  Members of the New Black Panther Party intimidated voters in Philadelphia in order to secure a Pennsylvania election victory for Barack Obama in 2008.  Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama deceived Democrat voters by perpetuating the lie that Russia “stole” the election for Donald Trump in 2016.  While the corporate news media and Silicon Valley’s social media tsars censored reporting on Hunter Biden’s “laptop from Hell” in the lead-up to the 2020 election, Democrat-controlled cities reported more mail-in-ballots for Sleepy Joe than lawful registered voters.  Since Trump’s 2024 landslide victory over Kamala Harris, Democrats have claimed that Elon Musk stole all the swing states for the president.

Nobody believes that our elections are on the up-and-up.  

The fifty states do not uniformly require official photo ID.  Election statutes are not uniformly enforced.  Judges routinely step in to alter the rules for some areas but not others.  Election “Day” has become Election Months because most states permit early voting that lasts for weeks, as well as the late tabulation of mail-in-ballots that arrive well after the election.

In many Democrat-controlled jurisdictions, multiple ballots arrive at every home, apartment, post office box, chicken coop, doghouse, street corner, vacant field, Walmart, convenience store, parking lot, and homeless encampment.  American citizens don’t control election outcomes through their votes.  Campaign operatives control election outcomes through ballot “harvesting” — whereby blank ballots are mailed out, filled out, and collected without ever involving the “voters” whose “votes” are cast in their names.

Once the vote counts are officially posted, most jurisdictions are incapable of verifying the legality of each vote cast or replicating the results with matched ballots and voter records.  The local and state election commissions instead defer to the “Trust us, bro” standard of government accountability.

The whole electoral process is corrupt. 

Everybody knows it.  Democrats and Republicans have different reasons for distrusting the outcomes.  But the point remains: Nobody trusts the outcomes.  Pundits such as Dan McLaughlin exist to reassure the public that everything is hunky-dory.  Don’t trust your eyes or the organ between your ears, they say.  

Trust the process and the Establishment politicians who benefit from that process.

Why not?  

These are the same professional “authorities,” after all, who “rationally” handled the arrival of the mostly-harmless COVID virus by closing schools, churches, and businesses; locking us up in our homes; creating arbitrary mask rules; forcing us to follow ludicrous “safety” protocols; and threatening to take our children away if we refused to submit to experimental injections redefined as “vaccines.”  If you didn’t learn to “trust the experts” during COVID, I don’t know what to tell you.  After we “flattened the curve in fifteen days,” we also proved that owning property causes “climate change” and that Dementia Joe Biden was the most popular president in American history!  It was a banner few years!

Notwithstanding the proven track record of the Establishment Class, California’s recent “election” is forcing more people than ever to question whether this whole voting monstrosity in America is legitimate.  When even “I will defend the integrity of the 2020 election to my dying breath” Dan McLaughlin admits that the radically shifting results for the Los Angeles mayoral race have made him “suspicious” of the voting process in California, the tide might be turning.  Who knows.  Maybe Dan will start to wonder whether it really makes sense that Joe Biden — a political candidate who struggled to receive more than single-digit support during prior attempts to reach the White House — won eighty-two million votes in 2020, eclipsing voter support for both President Obama and President Trump.

Common sense isn’t for everybody.  Some people prefer to trust corrupt election officials.  As Dan McLaughlin says, “The machine wins.”  Well, the machine does tend to win when pundits refuse to recognize, confront, and condemn fraud.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 16:20

SpaceX Prices Biggest Ever IPO At $135 Per Share

SpaceX Prices Biggest Ever IPO At $135 Per Share

While there was little doubt as to SpaceX's actual IPO price, which due to its novel structure was always going to be $135, and unlike the proposed IPO price ranges as is customary for other initial offerings, moments ago SpaceX (SPCX) made it official when it filed a free writing prospectus (FWP) which confirmed the company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 each, for a total size of $75 billion (excluding the greenshoe), making history with the biggest-ever IPO, launching it into the top ranks of the largest public companies and putting founder Elon Musk on the verge of becoming the world’s first trillionaire. For context, SpaceX is more than double the size of the previous largest IPO - Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion listing in 2019. The SpaceX registration statement was declared effective June 11. The details of the pricing are shown below.

At $135, SpaceX will have a market value of $1.77 trillion. Accounting for employee stock options and restricted share units, the pricing gives it a fully diluted valuation of about $1.8 trillion. SpaceX’s market value will rank it among the top 10 public companies globally, and make it larger even than Musk’s own Tesla. According to Polymarket, there is a 84% chance the IPO closes above its offering price tomorrow, and a 46% chance it rises more than 20%.

SpaceX, which made a net loss of $4.9bn in 2025, is made up of three businesses: space exploration, including its Falcon and Starship rockets; connectivity, such as its Starlink satellite constellation providing high-speed internet access; and artificial intelligence, though its xAI division.

Musk’s fan base in the retail trading community is a crucial component of the deal: they have placed more than $100 billion in orders for the stock, Bloomberg reported, far more than the 20% of shares that had been reserved for them.

Yet not everyone is so excited. Noted short-seller James Chanos on Wednesday called it “a hopes-and-dreams IPO” driven by enthusiasm for Musk and artificial intelligence rather than the fundamentals of a company that has yet to post a profit.

“The total addressable market for space is infinite,” Chanos, founder of Chanos & Co., said at the iConnections Global Alts conference in New York on Wednesday. “You can build whatever stories you want — colonies on Mars, factories on the moon, data centers in space — to justify the valuation.”

Investment research group Morningstar calculated that SpaceX is worth only $63 a share – half the IPO price – and warns there is “a major disconnect between market expectations and underlying fundamentals”.

Michael Field, the chief equity strategist at Morningstar, suggests investors should sit out the IPO and wait for “a more attractive entry point down the line”.

“We believe the business has real strengths, particularly in Starlink, but with so many unknown and untested technologies underpinning much of the valuation price, particularly within the AI business, we think the valuation is extremely speculative,” Field said.

Still, even among the skeptic about the company’s current valuation, many acknowledge Musk’s achievements building Tesla and SpaceX into giants - and making money for investors, thanks in part to his loyal retail investor fanbase.

Coupled with rule changes that could fast track the stock into benchmark gauges like the Nasdaq-100 Index (if not the S&P where there will be at least a one year delay), demand from passive funds and retail investors unable to buy at the IPO price should set the stage for a solid cohort of buyers for shares of the rocket, satellite and AI company once they start trading.   

“It’s probably the most hopeful IPO,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, adding that she doesn’t buy IPOs. Buyers of SpaceX “want to be part of the future,” she said. “And I think that’s oddly hopeful in this time when we’re moving between the poles of greed and fear.” 

As Bloomberg notes, SpaceX is the first of three major IPOs expected to capitalize on stock investors’ appetite for the leading AI companies, a seemingly insatiable demand that has propelled benchmark US indexes to records this year despite the acceleration in inflation and economic disruption caused by the war in Iran. Anthropic PBC and OpenAI, two of the company’s AI competitors, are expected to go public as soon as this year and could seek valuations of more than $1 trillion each, so the performance of SpaceX’s stock will be as closely scrutinized by Silicon Valley venture capitalists as it is by Wall Street traders. The deluge of public equity, on top of an $85 billion equity offering from Alphabet Inc. and the potential for other big-tech firms to follow suit, is triggering a debate over whether there is enough investor demand to meet the incoming supply.

“It’s a big deal as a kind of precursor for Anthropic and OpenAI,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. “When I look at all three of those and the amount of capital that these companies are raising, it tells me that the demand for AI is still very strong even though we’ve seen more volatility. And I think some of that volatility in the market has been positioning around the expectations for these IPOs.”

A successful showing in public markets would make Musk a trillionaire, and his wealth could boom even further if he meets performance-based conditions for awards of as many as 1.3 billion additional class B shares in aggregate, split into tranches. It would be no small feat to earn all those shares. The company’s market capitalization needs to reach $7.5 trillion, it will have to complete non-Earth-based data centers capable of delivering 100 terawatts of computing power per year, and establish a permanent human colony on Mars with at least 1 million inhabitants.

Musk, who won’t be able to sell any shares until a year after the start of trading, is expected to control 84% of the voting power after the IPO. His control over SpaceX’s governance includes effectively being able to choose the board members, which means only he can remove himself as CEO.

And now that the pricing is done, we wait for the actual stock to break for trading tomorrow - with the usual several hour delay - at which point we will see if it was wise for SpaceX to issue such a small float with such a large retail participation. Notably, according to Polymarket, the odds that the IPO closes with a market cap above $2.2 trillion 

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 15:48

Trump: Iran Deal Should Be Done 'Pretty Quickly' But 'Subject To Settling' Over Next Few Days

Trump: Iran Deal Should Be Done 'Pretty Quickly' But 'Subject To Settling' Over Next Few Days Summary
  • Trump Talks Endgame In Iran: Says 'we'll have a signing very soon.'
  • TACO SEASONING: Trump tells NY Post that Iran deal "pretty much all wrapped up," but FARS news agency says no deal has been approved. 
  • TACO: Trump Cancels Strikes After All Day Bluster About 'Bigger' Strikes on Iran Tonight (shocking TACO!)
  • Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf says "Wrong strategies and impulsive decisions will reset the entire board for the worse, explode energy infrastructure and markets & create an endless quagmire that you will be stuck in for years."
  • Trump follows with mention of "bigger, more powerful" bombing of Iran tonight. He pledged "they're finished".
  • Trump announces intent to hit the Iranians "VERY HARD TONIGHT" (surely there will be no TACO?)
//--> //--> //-->

Trump Says Deal Imminent 

President Donald Trump announced Thursday evening that he had cancelled scheduled U.S. strikes and bombings against Iran, citing rapid progress on a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at extending a fragile ceasefire and launching formal negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program. In a Truth Social post and a phone interview with the New York Post, Trump said the agreement was “pretty much all wrapped up,” with documents at a “fairly final stage.” He added that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and claimed the deal had received approval at the highest levels in Iran and from multiple regional players, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place until the deal is signed, with time and location of the signing to be announced shortly.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 17% · No 84%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office later confirmed that Trump spoke with Netanyahu this evening specifically about the emerging MOU. According to the readout, Netanyahu expressed appreciation for Trump’s commitment that any final agreement would require the removal of enriched nuclear material, dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and an end to Iran’s support for terrorist proxies - even though Israel is not a direct party to the MOU. Earlier in the day, Trump had sharply escalated rhetoric by threatening to seize Iran’s key oil-export hub at Kharg Island and hit Iran “very hard,” a move widely seen as leverage that may have accelerated the diplomatic opening.

"President Trump spoke this evening with Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding the emerging memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran to enter into negotiations," the PM's office wrote on X. "Even though Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding, the Prime Minister expressed his appreciation for President Trump's commitment that the final agreement at the conclusion of negotiations will include the removal of enriched material, the dismantling of enrichment infrastructure, limits on missile production, and the cessation of Iran's support for its terrorist proxies in the region."

Iranian state media, including Fars News Agency, quickly pushed back, stating that no final MOU text had been approved. Some Israeli officials also indicated they had not been briefed on a finalized deal. Markets reacted positively in the short term, with U.S. stocks rising and oil prices falling on hopes of de-escalation. The developments remain fluid, with both sides continuing to trade public signals amid ongoing regional tensions.

Via Telegram

And of course, oil:

Trump Claims Iran Deal 'Pretty Much All Wrapped Up' - FARS Says No Text Approved

President Trump told the New York Post in a phone interview that the US-Iran agreement is "pretty much all wrapped up," claiming high-level approval and announcing he has called off further strikes on Iran.

Iranian state media immediately pushed back. Fars News Agency, citing a source close to Iran’s negotiating team, stated that no text for the initial memorandum of understanding with the United States has been approved.

The dueling statements reflect the familiar pattern in these negotiations: the US side projecting near-completion while Iranian officials emphasize that no final text has received leadership approval. This comes amid ongoing indirect mediation efforts, including Qatari involvement.

*  *  *

Trump Cancels Strikes After All Day Bluster About 'Bigger' Strikes on Iran Tonight

TACO Thursday... Trump again backs off prior repeat vows. He's been threatening since last night that he'll "bomb the shit" out of Iran, and followed by specifically saying this morning that 'bigger airstrikes' would come tonight. It's after 9pm in Iran and there's been nothing yet.

And now the president is saying he's canceled the planned strikes altogether. He's saying this is due to "discussions" at the highest level with Iranian leadership. But Tehran has rejected that it's engaged with talks. One side or the other is lying. Might the following from CNN have some direct bearing on this sudden reversal in intentions?

Energy executives have warned the White House that key oil reserves being used to limit the Iran war’s impact on prices are running dangerously low, via CNN citing sources.

Stocks surging, oil dumping...

Oil plunges after the bombshell Truth Social reversal and sudden de-escalation in US military posture from the Commander-in-Chief:

US Still Holding Israel Back

This is another latest sign Washington is still looking for an off-ramp through negotiations. Trump is hoping to push Iran back into talks through bombing, which thus far hasn't worked (since even the opening days of Epic Fury). According to the latest reporting out of Israel's public broadcaster Kan News:

 

Ghalibaf to US: "Endless quagmire that you will be stuck in for years."

Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf says "Wrong strategies and impulsive decisions will reset the entire board for the worse, explode energy infrastructure and markets and create an endless quagmire that you will be stuck in for years."

He's seizing on the lessons of Bush's Afghan and Iraq wars, which the media and history books have long looked critically on as 'forever wars'. There's also the general war-weariness among the American public, also as the Russia-Ukraine war is in its fifth year. This is Tehran again counter-signaling that there is no imminent deal or even so much as forward-moving negotiations to speak of.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is pushing back against Iran's assertion that it has again locked down international shipping transit in the Strait of Hormuz:

And more from Trump on from bad to worse escalatory 'options':

Trump on Fox News: "My preference has always been to take Kharg Island. I don't know that America has the stomach for it, to be honest."

Trump: 'Bigger, More Powerful' Bombing Tonight

President Trump follows on the heels of vowing to hit Iran "very hard tonight" with some further words revealing his thinking in a morning Fox News interview. Trump has promised a "bigger, more powerful" bombing of Iran. "They have no defense," he said, and pledged "they're finished". But be again lambasted the media for not saying that they are actually "finished".

He explained that if needed, US troops can be used to "take over the whole place" - but still expressed he doesn't desire to put US American forces on the ground. 

Separately, CNN has cited US admin officials who suggest that a move to capture Kharg Island is an "endgame" strategy option. So this suggests its low on the White House agenda, after Trump earlier hinted that this could be done.

Trump: Will Be Hitting Iran Very Hard Tonight

After already issuing an ultimatum the evening prior, President Trump has just announced his intent to launch a second consecutive night of direct missile attacks on Iran. He's vowing to hit the Iranians "VERY HARD TONIGHT".

He also just renewed prior threats to 'take' Kharg Island and 'other oil infrastructure points' in the not too distant future.

The Thursday morning Truth Social post previewing the next escalation in this war resulted in a spike in oil prices:

US Attack Renders Ceasefire 'Meaningless'

Overnight, there did not appear to be any new major exchanges of fire after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan - following the US bombing of some dozens of targets in Iran earlier, in the wake of the downing of a US Apache attack helicopter in the Hormuz area earlier this week.

But since then, Iran has announced it is closing the Strait of Hormuz - or rather seeking to tighten its grip with the likelihood of more aggressive attacks on international and 'unauthorized' tankers to come. Iran had also struck US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan - according to its statements as well as emerging open source material.

The most important new statement to come out of Tehran is the Iranian Foreign Ministry's charge that the US attacks "rendered the ceasefire dated April 8, 2026 effectively meaningless" and that the US will be held responsible for the "consequences". The formal statement also urged regional Arab stated to not allow American forces to use their territories.

Day 104: Return to Regional Airspace Closures

It is day 104 of the enduring conflict, with active war having newly erupted again, and so we are seeing airspace closures over the region once again, with Kuwait confirming flight diversions amid a temporary airspace closure.

Aerial alerts have also been issued for Jordan. 

A slew of new videos have emerged showing missile intercepts, with US Patriot batteries active, over areas from Kuwait to Bahrain to Jordan - however, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) interestingly continues to be sparred from Iran's wrath and retaliation.

Scope of US Attack & Iran's Military Response

As for the latest of what's confirmed in the wake of the prior day's major US attacks on Iran, which involved over 40 Tomahawk missiles fired, Al Jazeera has the following summary and review of the situation:

  • US strikes on Iran: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that Washington was launching strikes on “key facilities” in Iran, saying the attacks were part of attempts to secure a permanent ceasefire. Speaking outside CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, Florida, Hegseth said President Donald Trump had ordered Iran to be hit “hard” and warned the strikes could continue for a second consecutive night if necessary.
  • Strait of Hormuz closed: In response to the latest attacks, Iran’s top military command announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. Officials warned all vessels to stay away from the strategic waterway, saying any ships attempting to pass through could come under attack.
  • Water services restored: Authorities in Iran’s Hormozgan province said water supplies had been restored to affected communities in Sirik county less than 12 hours after US strikes damaged infrastructure. Iranian media reported that two concrete water storage reservoirs were hit in the attacks. A New York Times analysis suggested the tanks may have been struck with precision-guided munitions, raising concerns as international humanitarian law considers civilian water infrastructure a protected site.
  • Tehran reacts to renewed fighting: Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall said many Iranians had been expecting another US attack despite renewed talk of negotiations. “They have been waiting and expecting a surprise American attack,” Vall said, adding that Tehran retaliated by striking US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, according to military commanders. The latest exchanges mark another night of direct confrontation after both sides had suggested the previous round of attacks had come to an end.

Below: Iran releases video showing this its latest missile launches targeting US bases in the Middle East:

'Tomorrow Night' Warning

President Trump is again trying his hand at forcing Iran to negotiate and capitulate through bombing, most recently warning in a statement to Fox News that if Iran does not accept a US deal, it would come under American fire power once again "tomorrow night" -- so the clock is ticking Thursday, apparently. 

While Trump claimed the Iranians had contacted Washington, urging a halt to the attacks, Tehran leadership has rejected that this actually happened. The whole situation is somewhat of a return to the same stalemated reality of the opening days and weeks of Operation Epic Fury.

Third Tanker this Week Disabled by US Forces

In the Gulf of Oman, US forces have reportedly disabled another oil tanker charged with 'violating the blockade' put into place by the US Navy. This marks the third commercial vessel disabled by American forces this week. According to a fresh CENTCOM description of the action:

U.S. forces disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman at 11:20 p.m. ET on June 10 after the vessel violated the blockade against Iran by attempting to transport Iranian oil, marking the third commercial ship disabled by American forces this week.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) acted against Guinea-Bissau flagged M/T Jalveer as it attempted to transport oil from Iran through the Gulf of Oman. A U.S. aircraft fired two Hellfire missiles into the ship’s engine room after the crew repeatedly failed to comply with directions from U.S. forces.

Earlier this week, U.S. aircraft disabled Palau-flagged vessels M/T Marivex and M/T Settebello on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Marivex violated the blockade by attempting to sail to an Iranian port and Settebello attempted to transport Iranian oil.

In total: U.S. forces have disabled 9 non-compliant vessels since initiating the blockade of Iran's ports on April 13.

Claims of Ongoing Indirect Talks

Bloomberg reports early Thursday:

Qatar negotiators depart Tehran after talks on US, Iran: diplomat to AFP

Some regional media, such as Al Arabiya, are reporting that negotiations between Tehran and Washington are ongoing (likely only indirectly, if at all) - though there hasn't been official confirmation of this from the Islamic Republic side at all. Instead, they are calling even the extended ceasefire itself 'meaningless'.

According to the latest communication, Iran's Defense Ministry says the country will not back down in the face of threats or pressure, with the national armed forces remaining on high alert, ready to inflict retaliation and punishment.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 15:44

Defendant In Deadly LA Wildfires Wanted 'Revenge Against Society,' Prosecutor Says

Defendant In Deadly LA Wildfires Wanted 'Revenge Against Society,' Prosecutor Says

Authored by Beige Luciano-Adams via The Epoch Times,

LOS ANGELES - More than a year after one of the most destructive fires in U.S. history, attorneys on Wednesday offered opening salvos in a federal jury trial accusing a 29-year-old man of sparking the initial flame that would lead, a week later, to the catastrophic inferno that claimed the lives of 12 people and reduced thousands of homes to ash in the wealthy coastal enclave of the Pacific Palisades.

Destruction caused by the Palisades Fire near Los Angeles on Jan. 9, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

"He wanted revenge - revenge against society because he blamed society for all his troubles," U.S. Attorney Mark Williams told the court.

Dejected and alone on New Year's Eve, driven by resentment, Jonathan Rinderknecht set fire to the hills surrounding an upscale Los Angeles neighborhood where he had once lived a better life, prosecutors charged.

Prosecutors alleged that Rinderknecht intentionally lit a small brush fire just after midnight on Jan. 1, 2025, near a clearing atop a popular hiking trail in the Santa Monica Mountains, then attempted to cover his tracks by constructing a digital record of a less sinister alibi.

Firefighters quickly suppressed that blaze, dubbed the Lachman Fire - but it smoldered among underground roots for a week before erupting to the surface via a single tree, where powerful Santa Ana winds whipped it into the Pacific Palisades Fire, investigators claim.

The two fires may have different names, Williams said of the so-called holdover fire, "but they were actually the same continuous fire."

Investigators identified Rinderknecht as a person of interest by matching geolocation cellular data, local security cameras and Flock police camera networks identifying his vehicle and license plate, as well as the defendant's own 911 call records.

"There was one phone that provided more geolocation data for the exact time we were looking for than the other ones," Michael Montevidoni, a special agent with the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF), told the court.

Steve Haney, an attorney for Rinderknecht, offered an alternate narrative for his client's proximity to the incident.

"The government says that's the voice and actions of a man who started a fire," Haney said of a recording, one of more than a dozen calls Rinderknecht placed to 911 in the minutes after the Lachman Fire erupted, played in court by the plaintiff. "It's the voice and actions of a man who was trying to stop a fire."

Haney said the fact that his client was in the area at the time - he was an Uber driver who had just dropped a ride off in the adjacent neighborhood - is not in dispute.

But the government has offered no "reliable evidence" showing Rinderknecht started the Lachman Fire, Haney said, much less that he is responsible for the Palisades Fire that followed it a week later.

"It's up to the government to prove to you how somehow these two fires with two different names, two different dates, and two different ignitions, somehow are not two fires, but one continuous fire that Jonathan should be responsible for," Haney said.

"The government has never charged or accused Jonathan of willfully starting a fire on Jan. 7," Haney said of the day the Palisades Fire ignited. "And they can't because he wasn't anywhere near the Pacific Palisades on Jan. 7, 2025."

Haney said the evidence will show the government investigated the two fires as separate events with two separate sets of suspects - and that the likely cause of the Lachman blaze was fireworks, not arson.

"After eight months, the government abandoned the two-fire theory. They replaced it with a single combined one-fire theory. ... It took over eight months to charge Jonathan with arson," he said, noting Rinderknecht was charged in October 2025, 10 months after the Lachman Fire.

The high-profile trial opened just as a contentious Los Angeles mayoral primary drew to a close, in which incumbent Karen Bass narrowly advanced to a November runoff after fending off attacks from both left and right over her handling of the fire response and aftermath.

Dressed in a dark suit, Rinderknecht wore a neutral expression but watched his attorney and witnesses intently throughout the day.

Driven by a fascination with fire and a resentment toward the wealthy, prosecutors claim, Rinderknecht started the fire intentionally with a lighter, then attempted to preserve evidence of "a more innocent explanation" when he recorded himself calling 911 and queried ChatGPT, "Are you at fault if a fire is lift [sic] because of your cigarettes?"

According to the state's case, arson investigators ruled out other potential causes of the Lachman fire, including fireworks, lightning, power lines, refracted sunlight - and cigarettes, in the last case performing more than 500 experiments at a specialized lab.

Prosecutors say evidence including eyewitnesses, a cache of GPS data from Rinderknecht's phone carrier geolocating his movements, video footage, his own 911 calls - as well as ChatGPT queries and even a song he repeatedly listened to - illustrate his alleged motive and attempted cover-up.

U.S. District Judge for the Central District of California Anne Hwang has excluded some of that evidence, including AI images Rinderknecht allegedly prompted of a class-war inferno months before the fire.

In a ChatGPT prompt cited in the complaint, Rinderknecht asked the chatbot to create a "dystopian painting" featuring people running from a burning forest, with "hundreds of thousands of people in poverty" separated by a giant gate from a "conglomerate of the richest people" who watch as the world burns. "They are laughing, enjoying themselves and dancing."

Prosecutors said the defendant, an Uber driver, was angry after failing to secure an invitation to a New Year's Eve party, and acted on long-simmering fantasies and resentments he'd harbored in a place he knew intimately.

"He definitely knew the area well. He had lived there a few years earlier with his boyfriend, who was renting a large house with a pool," Williams said. "You'll hear the defendant enjoyed living there - he was happy, in good shape, and people treated him well."

All of that changed, the prosecutor claimed, when the defendant's relationship ended, and he moved to a small apartment in Hollywood.

"His life started to deteriorate. ... In 2024, the defendant was lonely with no real friends. He lived by himself and was withdrawn," Williams said, adding "his own words will show how angry this made him."

Montevidoni, the ATF special agent, told the court he conducted close to 100 interviews during the course of the investigation, including those of the defendant's family, romantic partners, and acquaintances.

Investigators also conducted a fine-grained digital dragnet, extracting evidence from the defendant's iCloud, Gmail, OpenAI accounts, his Uber records, and multiple phone and phone carriers.

Rinderknecht's social views, personal life, and interior thoughts are irrelevant, Haney argued.

"This case is not about whether you like Jonathan or not, whether you approve of the way he uses his computer or activates his ChatGPT," Haney said. "The question is whether the government can prove beyond a reasonable doubt whether Jonathan set the fire on Jan. 1, 2025."

Despite extensive searches of his home, vehicle, and all of his digital records, Haney said, the state failed to produce evidence that his client intended to start a fire.

"The evidence will show ... that just after midnight, a fire began on a hillside. It will show panic, it will show confusion, it will show a frightened young man reporting it and desperately calling for help," Haney said.

The jury will consider whether evidence shows, beyond a reasonable doubt, that Rinderknecht committed three counts of arson, related to three different types of property that burned during the fire.

A firefighter battles the Palisades Fire as it burns homes on the Pacific Coast Highway during a powerful windstorm in Los Angeles on Jan. 8, 2025. The wildfire lasted for 24 days, resulting in the deaths of 12 residents, forcing thousands to evacuate their homes, and rendering entire neighborhoods uninhabitable. Apu Gomes/Getty Images Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 15:40

Hidden Starship Trade: The Industrial Gas Giant Fueling SpaceX's Rockets

Hidden Starship Trade: The Industrial Gas Giant Fueling SpaceX's Rockets

Ahead of the SpaceX IPO, Rothschild & Co Redburn analyst Tony Jones published a note on space propellant economics and identified an industrial-gases giant that is well positioned to dominate the market for rocket propellants and mission-critical launch gases as SpaceX's Starship launch cadence gains momentum and the broader space economy is set to double by 2035.

Jones and his team reiterated their "Buy" rating on Linde and raised their 12-month price target to $560 from $550, telling clients on Wednesday that the company has built a deep moat in the industrial gases business after powering America's rocket launches for the past six decades.

The team at the equity research arm of Rothschild & Co Redburn sees SpaceX's Starship as a "further demand accelerator," with higher launch cadence and heavier propellant loads creating a new growth lever for Linde's mission-critical gases business.

Jones estimates Linde generated just under $4 million of revenue per average space launch in 2025. By 2028, that number could approach $6 million as Starship launches are set to increase dramatically, driving demand for liquid oxygen, nitrogen, helium, cryogenic services, rare gases, and capacity fees.

Main points from the note:

1. White Space. Linde has fuelled NASA for c60 years and now has capex set to ramp alongside SpaceX's Starbase. We delve into the economics and like what we see. Space sales are c2% group but could scale rapidly, as Starlink's ecosystem forms.

2. Starship: a further demand accelerator. The transition to Starship as a dominant vehicle could transform the opportunity, burning c10x the oxygen of a Falcon 9 launch. Linde's revenue per launch could near $6m by 2028, from under $4m in 2025. This comes on top of potentially exponential launch cadence.

3. Project and EPS optionality. Linde's space capex falls outside its gas backlog, lacking take-or-pay status. However, contracts seem likely and we see the backlog revised up as a clear valuation catalyst. EPS growth could accelerate (Fig 1). Linde is a rock-solid business with top-quartile management. We increase our 12-month PT to $560 per share (from $550) and reiterate our Buy recommendation.

Linde's earnings growth could accelerate if several growth levers hit at the same time...

Starship dominates propellant gas usage among space vehicle types this year.

"SpaceX has indicated that the 140 to 160 launches planned for 2026 will be almost all Falcon 9 flights. Starship launches will likely be test flights only, with the major milestone to successfully reach optimal range," Jones noted.

Linde revenue per average space launch – 2025

Linde revenue per average space launch – 2028

Musk has previously stated, "Starship should be doing >1000 Earth orbit flights per year by 2028. That is still low compared to what's needed to build a self-sustaining city on Mars and secure the future of consciousness."

Related:

Professional subscribers can read more on SpaceX at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 15:20

16 Academics Sign Letter Calling For Public Inquest Into Epstein Accuser's Suicide

16 Academics Sign Letter Calling For Public Inquest Into Epstein Accuser's Suicide

Authored by Rex Widerstrom via The Epoch Times,

The death last year of Jeffrey Epstein accuser Virginia Giuffre was ruled a suicide by police, but 16 academics have now penned an open letter to the state coroner calling for a formal public inquest into possible domestic violence links.

Undated handout file photo issued by the US Department of Justice (left-right) of the former Duke of York, Virginia Giuffre, and Ghislaine Maxwell. 

Giuffre died on April 25, 2025, aged 41, at her farm in Western Australia, leaving behind three children with her husband, Robert Giuffre.

On March 30, she'd made her last social media post, claiming on Instagram that she had gone into renal failure after a bus accident and that she had been given four days to live.

It is accompanied by a photo in which she is lying on her side in what appears to be a hospital bed, with bruises visible on her face.

The newest letter, published by the Centre for the Elimination of Violence Against Women (CEVAW) at Melbourne Law School, is signed by 16 academics who are all researchers and experts in domestic and violence against women.

The group says there is "evidence that makes such an inquest not only appropriate but necessary."

They rely on statistics that link suicides to the experience of family violence, such as a 2107 investigation by the Ombudsman, which found that 56 percent of women and children who died by suicide in Western Australia that year had been victims of domestic violence.

"This figure is almost certainly an underestimate given the well-documented underreporting of DFV [domestic and family violence] in official systems," the letter goes on to say.

"Emerging evidence further suggests that deaths by suicide in the context of DFV may be three times greater than the number of women killed by an intimate partner - yet unlike homicide, these deaths rarely receive equivalent scrutiny.

"Coronial processes too frequently treat mental ill health as the primary explanatory lens, obscuring the role of coercive control and systemic failure," the academics say.

"Research identifies the removal of children as a significant contributor to hopelessness among victim-survivors, and the weaponisation of legal mechanisms, including restraining orders, as a tactic of coercive control is equally well established."

In an March 2025 post, Giuffre had complained about being estranged from her children, writing, "My beautiful babies have no clue how much I love them, and they're being poisoned with lies. I miss them so very much."

The academics wrote: "Virginia Giuffre's death is unusual only in that it is visible."

"Her public profile means there is an unusually detailed record of her final months - and what that record shows is deeply consistent with what our research tells us about how these deaths occur, and how they are too often overlooked.

"The reported circumstances of her final months are consistent with the patterns described above, and a public inquest is the appropriate mechanism to examine them thoroughly. Conducted with full attention to the DFV context of her death, such an inquest has the potential to generate findings and recommendations that reach far beyond this one case, and that could prevent future deaths."

It concludes by urging the coroner to "bring the full weight of the available evidence to bear on this decision."

Giuffre was one of the most prominent accusers of Epstein.

She claimed that the now-former Prince Andrew had sexually abused her when she was 17 years old, allegedly with the help of Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, 62, who was found guilty of assisting Epstein in the abuse of multiple girls.

A civil lawsuit that Giuffre filed against Prince Andrew in 2021 was settled confidentially, with the prince donating money to Giuffre's charity.

Although the amount has never been revealed, reports widely estimate the out-of-court settlement, reached in 2022, to be worth approximately 12 million pounds (A$22.9 million, US$16.1 million).

The settlement also placed a gagging order on Andrew, meaning he could no longer deny he had raped Giuffre or repeat the claim that he had no memory of meeting her.

When Giuffre's death became known, she received multiple tributes, including from President Donald Trump, who called her passing "a horrible thing."

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 15:00

Karmelo Anthony's Family Can No Longer Fundraise Off Austin Metcalf's Death

Karmelo Anthony's Family Can No Longer Fundraise Off Austin Metcalf's Death

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

The family of Karmelo Anthony can no longer raise money from supporters through GiveSendGo following the conclusion of his criminal case.

The Anthonys were able to raise more than $600,000 in the wake of the then-17-year-old’s prosecution in connection with the fatal stabbing of track star Austin Metcalf during an altercation on April 2, 2025.

The controversial fundraiser was hosted by GiveSendGo, which attracted thousands of donors who bizarrely viewed Anthony’s prosecution as the product of racial injustice. Evidence shown at trial proved otherwise.

In a June 9 statement posted on its website, GiveSendGo said that the fundraiser has been closed because Anthony’s trial was over.

“This fundraiser was created to support pre-trial needs, and those funds were disbursed over the past year for lawful purposes including legal defense and family relocation,” GiveSendGo stated.

“With that stated purpose now complete, the fundraiser has been closed and the funds will be paid out. Our policy is that a fundraiser’s stated purpose stays accurate so givers always know what they are supporting,” the platform added.

The fundraiser drew scrutiny because Anthony’s family resided in a highly exclusive gated community in a home reportedly valued at roughly $900,000.

A neighbor in the community told the Daily Mail that Anthony might have bought a brand-new vehicle during the trial.

But a defense attorney told reporters that the family used part of the funds to relocate and hire security.

By contrast, supporters and friends of the Metcalf family raised nearly $700,000 through two separate GoFundMe campaigns to help cover funeral costs and other expenses stemming from the teen’s death.

Anthony was sentenced to 35 years in state prison after a jury found him guilty of murder.

As revealed during the trial, Anthony fatally stabbed Metcalf in the chest. The wound was so severe that the knife penetrated into Metcalf’s lung.

The single stab wound was not survivable, according to Collin County Chief Medical Examiner Dr. Elizabeth Ventura.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 14:20

Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction Sees Foreign Demand Tumble, Dealer "Backtop" Bid Jump

Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction Sees Foreign Demand Tumble, Dealer "Backtop" Bid Jump

After yesterday's stellar 10Y auction, which saw the 5th highest Indirect take down on record, today's reopening of $22BN in 30Y paper (via Cusip UU0) was a mirror image: ugly, poor foreign demand, and tailing.

Starting at the top, the auction priced at a high yield of 5.02%, down fractionally from 5.046% last month (which was the first 5% coupon auction in history). And just like last month, today's auction also tailed the When Issued 5.008% by 1.2bps; this was the third tailing 30y auction and was also the biggest tail since August 2025.

Next, we look at the bid to cover which at 2.328 was a bit higher than last month's 2.303, which however was the lowest this year; it means that the BtC was well below the recent average of 2.43.

The internals were even uglier: in contrast to yesterday's surge in Indirect demand, today's Indirects took down just 59.95%, down from 66.6% and the lowest since August 2025. And with Directs rising to 25.31%, above the six-auction average of 23.7%, Dealers were left holding 14.74%, or the highest since July 2025.

In summary: this was a very ugly, tailing auction, which saw foreign demand tumble, offset by the biggest "backstop" bid from Dealers in almost a year. Whether this was the result of today's red hot PPI, or because investors are allocating capital to SpaceX and have little left to fund US spending, remains to be seen. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 13:41

Backroom Detente: A Curious Lack Of Iranian Strikes On UAE, While Others Get Hit

Backroom Detente: A Curious Lack Of Iranian Strikes On UAE, While Others Get Hit

President Trump is vowing another consecutive night of even heavier US military strikes on Iran. Yesterday's salvo involved at least 49 Tomahawk missile strikes, mainly happening against southern coastal areas off the Strait of Hormuz.

Amid Iran's counter-attacks on Gulf nations and reportedly on American bases hosted in these Arab Gulf allied states, there's been a curious lack of any new launches against the United Arab Emirates. 

Kuwait and Bahrain have been hit especially hard in this week's new flare-up in cross-Gulf fighting, but again, the UAE has been spared - after previously coming under significant attacks during the opening month of Operation Epic Fury. Even faraway Jordan has been targeted in the new 'retaliatatory' attacks.

But Bloomberg on Thursday revealed the reason - Iran and the UAE have apparently reached an 'understanding' after some backroom dealing and diplomacy.

"Senior national security officials from the United Arab Emirates and Iran held a face-to-face meeting for the first time since the start of the US-Israeli war against Tehran, according to people with knowledge of the situation," Bloomberg reports.

"This week’s meeting marked a stark turnaround for both sides and comes amid their growing acknowledgment of the importance of calmer bilateral ties, the people said, asking not to be named discussing sensitive matters," the fresh reporting continues.

In the UAE's thinking, it has too much to risk if it continues to face Iran's significant ballistic missile and drone arsenal, at a moment Washington has failed to clearly define an end game, but instead is climbing up the escalation ladder with a cornered and thus fierce Iran, which sees itself fighting for its very survival.

According to more from Bloomberg:

The UAE’s leaders want to keep their bold economic ambitions, including investing billions of dollars in increased oil production and in AI data centers, on track. The relationship is important for Tehran too, as the Gulf nation was among the Islamic Republic’s biggest trading partners before the war began and a key conduit for sanctioned Iranian oil.

Other leaders - both on the political and business fronts - are also likely asking themselves: when will it end? 

After all, each time the United States escalates, it's these Gulf economies that are the first to feel the pain, as they literally find themselves on geographic the front line just a few hundred miles away from Iran's borders. 

If it is indeed accurate that Gulf nations are approaching Iran to do individual separate deals, this is for now a diplomatic 'win' for Tehran. Separate deal-making, peeling others away from a united front and bloc, gives Iran some greater leverage and also flexibility in terms of potential post-war economic and political detente with regional states.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/11/2026 - 13:20

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