From Hormuz To Houston: The US Takeover Of Global Energy Flows Ramps Up

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

• The Americas are replacing the Middle East as the key source of global oil supply, with crude exports from the Western Hemisphere hitting a record 14.5 million bpd while Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed.

• Trump’s broader energy strategy aims to weaken OPEC’s influence and cement U.S. dominance over global energy markets.

• Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil are emerging as the biggest growth engines, with Venezuela rebuilding output, Argentina rapidly expanding Vaca Muerta shale production, and Brazil reaching record production levels.

Oil exports from the U.S. and its ‘Americas’ sphere of influence continue to be the prime beneficiary from the drop in crude output leaving the Middle East. Industry figures showed dirty tanker shipments from the Americas hit an all-time high of 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, up from 13.8 million bpd in April, and a 40% increase from May 2025. Meanwhile, transits through the key Strait of Hormuz global oil route dropped 89% from February to May, with total ship movements dropping from over 3,700 to around 400. “The pattern is likely to continue even when the Strait [of Hormuz] opens up again, as it’ll take months for Middle East volumes to recover to their former levels [before the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict], and some key sites will take several years to do so,” a senior source who works closely with the European Union’s (E.U.) energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “Meanwhile, the U.S. has ramped up its own [oil] production to record levels and is helping countries in the Americas -- Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil, mainly -- to do the same,” he added. “It marks a long-term shift in the centre of the world’s global oil and gas gravity,” he underlined.

This is precisely what U.S. President Donald Trump wanted to do from his first day in his first term as president, given his extreme dislike of OPEC’s use of its cartel powers over the years against the core interests of Washington and its allies, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. This was first notably seen in the 1973 Oil Crisis in which Saudi Arabia rallied fellow OPEC members into imposing an oil embargo on the U.S. and its allies following their support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. By the end of the embargo in March 1974, the price of oil had risen from around US$3 per barrel to nearly US$11 per barrel, which stoked the fire of a global economic slowdown, especially felt in the West. Then-Saudi Minister of Oil and Mineral Reserves, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, highlighted that this marked a fundamental shift in the world balance of power between the developing nations that produced oil and the developed industrial nations that consumed it. However, with the rise of U.S. shale oil production from around 2010, and OPEC’s attempt to destroy the nascent sector through an Oil Price War from 2014-2016 failing catastrophically, Trump has wanted to critically undermine the cartel’s ability to damage U.S. and allied interests ever since. Indeed, in the subsequent 2020 Oil Price War involving OPEC and started by Saudi Arabia for the same reason as in 2014, Trump expedited progress of the ‘No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act’ (NOPEC), which would open the way for sovereign governments to be sued for predatory pricing and failure to comply with the U.S.’s antitrust laws. It could also break up Saudi Arabian oil supergiant Aramco -- the mainstay of the Kingdom’s existing economic and political systems -- into constituent parts, effectively destroying it.

Instead, as delineated in the U.S.’s ‘2025 National Security Strategy’, Trump wants the world’s geopolitical system split into three geographical spheres, dominated by a major power in each. China would hold the primary role in Asia, while Russia would either dominate or significantly influence Europe, depending on how any future conflict between European NATO members and Moscow unfolds. But, at the top, the U.S. would maintain overall dominance and exert direct influence across the Americas (North and South America). Naturally, as energy underpins the economies -- and thus politics -- of every country in the world, shifting the centre of dominance in global energy supplies to the Americas is a core part of that aim. The U.S. is playing its part toward that, pumping oil at record highs, around a baseline of 13.6 million bpd, with plans for more down the line. Of the other major oil-producing countries in the Americas, Venezuela is top of Washington’s development agenda, followed by Argentina and then Brazil.

Following the landmark removal from power of Nicolás Maduro on 3 January by the U.S., Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a three-phase plan for the South American oil giant that involved stabilising the country and averting economic collapse, recovering the economy and oil sector, and encouraging an eventual political transition. These efforts have already seen a positive trajectory in oil production, with Venezuelan state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) and its foreign partners averaging 1.155 million bpd of crude production in May, compared to 1.130 million bpd in April and 940,0000 b/d in January. In April, executive vice president Jovanny Martinez, said that the country expects to produce 1.37 million bpd by the end of 2026. There is plenty of scope to do so, as Venezuela still holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves -- roughly 303 billion barrels, or about 17% of the global total -- and of its 14 supergiant oil fields, 11 retain more than half of their original reserves. Most of this is extra-heavy crude oil from the Orinoco Belt that requires more technical expertise to handle than lighter grades but is cheaper to lift and often more profitable to process. With those bottlenecks being addressed, it could again produce millions of barrels per day of cheap-to-lift crude, even if downstream handling remained costly. In fact, as recently as 2008, Venezuela was producing around 3 million bpd of crude oil.

One level down in Trump’s list of energy development priorities is Argentina, with Washington having provided a US$20 billion lifeline to the country in October 2025. This was explicitly intended to support President Javier Milei’s pro-market reforms and stabilise the economy for foreign investment. The ‘Reciprocal Trade and Investment Agreement’, which fast-tracks U.S. investment in strategic sectors, including energy and critical minerals, was then signed on 4 February this year. Against this backdrop, several U.S. companies are increasing their oil and gas investment there, particularly in the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which is now being referred to as another Permian Basin due to its scale. Continental Resources recently purchased non-operating interests in four blocks in the Vaca Muerta basin to accelerate expansion, while Chevron is leaning toward making Vaca Muerta a core asset in its global portfolio. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes secured a major order in early 2026 to supply gas compression units for the San Matias Pipeline, supporting gas transport from Vaca Muerta. Overall, Argentina is on track to reach 1 million bpd of oil this year, up 26% from 2025.

That said, Brazil is now producing a record-breaking 4 million bpd and over of crude oil, and including natural gas, total hydrocarbon output has hit a new record of 5.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). Industry forecasts are that it may well become one of the world’s top five oil producers by 2030, supported by extensive investment plans from Petrobras and foreign oil companies. These include supermajors from the U.S., focusing now on high-impact exploration and deepwater production rather than the maturing fields. Last October, for example, ExxonMobil achieved its first-ever upstream production in Brazil at the Bacalhau field, which has a capacity of 220,000 bpd. Chevron was awarded new offshore blocks alongside Petrobras and ExxonMobil last June, and Baker Hughes and Halliburton supply equipment and engineering for Petrobras’s US$109 billion five-year investment plan. Washington is cognisant not just of Brazil’s further massive oil and gas potential but also of its geopolitical importance as one of the original ‘BRIC’ (Brazil, Russia, India, China) emerging-market powerhouses, and its geographical position in the U.S.’s ‘backyard’.

With China weakened economically from where it was before Covid, and Russia near economic and military collapse as the war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year, Washington may never have a better opportunity to put Trump’s new world order into place. The Americas hemisphere already accounts for 32% of global crude production and is growing every year, with new supply from the U.S. Permian Basin, offshore Guyana, Argentine shale, and increased flows from Brazil and Venezuela. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs, Caleb Orr, highlighted recently that Ecuador and El Salvador are also among the governments Washington works with “hand in glove” on security. He added that security is the “table stakes” for any productive economic relationship and the foundation of the broad-based change in the Americas. The sentiments have been underlined by  National Energy Dominance Council executive director Jarrod Agen, who recently said: “The Western Hemisphere is now the leading driver of energy in the world; we are the centre of the energy world from Alaska down to Venezuela, and what we want is the crude product coming out of Alaska, coming out of Venezuela, coming into U.S. refineries, getting refined, and then exporting to the world.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 08:30

Stock Rally Pauses As Attention Turns To Warsh's First FOMC

US futures are flat, pausing after a three-day rally with investors shifting their focus to this week's FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh's first, which begins today. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% after surging 2% on Monday; and Nasdaq futures gain 0.3%, as SpaceX continued to surge, rising 11% overnight and on track for a more than 50% jump since going public, and briefly surpassing Microsoft's market value in afterhours trading. Pre-market, most of the Mag 7 names are lower; TSLA (-1.7%) and NVDA (-0.6%) are among the laggards.The dollar slipped and Treasuries rose with bond yields 1-3bp lower and the 10Y trading 4.44%. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3% to $78 a barrel as Goldma and Morgan Stanley cut their oil price forecasts. Base metals are also lower, while gold and silver both rise 0.7% this morning. Overnight, the main macro headline was BoJ (policy rate to 1% with the tapering plan unchanged; a bit hawkish tone in the statement; 15yr JGB added 8.5bp) and China data releases (Retail Sales and FAI both missed; HSI -1.4%). US economic data calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), May import/export price indexes, June NY Fed services business activity and May housing starts/building permits (8:30am)

In premarket trading, SpaceX rises 7.3%, putting the stock on track to extend a rally following its blockbuster debut last week. Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Amazon +0.5%, Alphabet -0.1%, Nvidia -0.1%, Apple -0.2%, Meta -0.2%, Microsoft -0.7%, Tesla -0.8%)

• Domo (DOMO) said its board’s review determined a strategic transaction is the best way to maximize shareholder value. Shares are down 13%.
• Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) falls 23% after the drug developer gave results from a mid-stage trial of its experimental therapy for a heart disorder.
• Edwards Lifesciences (EW) is up 3.1% after the US government published a coverage proposal for transcatheter aortic-valve replacement, with analysts citing updates that lean positive for the space.
• Huntsman (HUN) falls 7% after it agreed to merge with chemical peer Olin in an all-stock merger of equals. Olin shares are roughly flat in premarket.
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD) gains 2% after it said it is reducing its full-time employee workforce by 10%, and also closing a small number of open roles.

In other corporate news, SpaceX has formally agreed to take over Cursor in a deal that values the AI coding startup at $60 billion, cementing a key part of Elon Musk’s efforts to catch up with rivals on coding tools. In other AI news, chipmaking giant Nvidia sold $25 billion of high-grade bonds, joining a wave of jumbo debt offerings from tech heavyweights as investors clamor to get exposure to the AI boom. Anthropic is said to have held talks with the Trump administration in a bid to lift curbs which led to the company disabling global access to its two most advanced AI models.

With the Iran war on the backburner for now, the focus on Wall Street is now turning to the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh. While the central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, the spotlight will be on how Warsh navigates the post-meeting press conference and the outlook for inflation. Oil’s drop to the lowest since early March has erased the bulk of the gains seen during the Mideast conflict, easing inflationary pressures just as policymakers assess interest rates.

“All eyes will remain on the Fed for now and how Kevin Warsh will handle the competing pressures from rising inflation and the prospect of lower energy inflation once the Strait of Hormuz reopens,” said Joachim Klement at Panmure Liberum.

The announcement by President Donald Trump of a peace deal with Iran has opened the floodgates for investors to start to deploy the roughly $8 trillion to $9 trillion sitting in money market funds, according to Rick Rieder, BlackRock Inc.’s global fixed income chief investment officer. SpaceX’s initial public offering had already forced investors to make room in portfolios, he added.

As reported earlier, SpaceX shares surged in premarket trading, putting the firm on track to overtake Amazon.com as the fifth largest publicly traded company in the world just days after its blockbuster debut. Shares jumped as much as 19% in early trading before paring those gains to about 8% as of 7:30 a.m. in New York. The premarket gain builds on a more than 40% jump across SpaceX’s first two sessions after its record initial public offering. If it holds through the trading day, the move would lift the market value of Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company to more than $2.7 trillion, above Amazon and up nearly $1 trillion from its IPO.Today SPCX options start trading which will likely add a gamma squeeze to the overall upside pressure. Separately, SpaceX formally agreed to take over Cursor in a deal that values the AI coding startup at $60 billion, cementing a key part of Elon Musk’s efforts to catch up with rivals on coding tools.

As Bloomberg notes, when it comes to SpaceX, the message is clear - buyers care very little about any fundamental or valuation argument. It was already within striking distance of Amazon’s nearly $2.7 trillion valuation at Monday’s close, and is up a further 11% in premarket trading. Options contracts on the stock begin trading Tuesday.

Investors have trimmed allocations to global equities, according to the monthly fund manager survey by BofA strategists. A net 38% of fund managers are overweight, compared to 50% in May, and participants see the biggest tail risks as second inflation wave (34%), AI bubble (28%), disorderly rise in bond yields (19%) and geopolitical conflict (12%).

Meanwhile more are starting to pay attention to the off-balance sheet and circular nature of AI fund flows, discussed extensively here. As Bloomberg notes, after SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI are viewed as the most likely contenders for the next blockbuster AI IPOs — and that brings a sharpening focus on the hyperscalers that have spent the past several years becoming both their financiers and their data-center landlords. Alphabet and Amazon have Anthropic exposure through partnerships and investments, while Microsoft has a 27% stake in OpenAI.

The Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia kicked off a slate of decisions for the week. The BOJ raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 1%, the highest level since 1995 and signaled that further policy normalization lies ahead. The yen pared gains against the dollar while local bonds fell. The RBA kept its key interest rate unchanged for the first time this year in response to signs that its trio of hikes are beginning to weigh on the nation’s economy. The Bank of England and Swiss National Bank are also widely anticipated to stand pat this week. Their decisions come after the European Central Bank last week raised rates for the first time in almost three years, with President Christine Lagarde warning inflation triggered by the Iran war is widening beyond just energy.

Meanwhile, with US and Iran preparing to sign an interim peace deal in Switzerland oil is headed for longest run of declines this year on expectations a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will revive supply. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs cut price outlooks for the coming quarters, with the latter now assuming Persian Gulf exports will reach pre-war levels by the end of July, a month earlier than previously forecast. Additionally, Qatar is planning to rapidly boost liquefied natural gas production once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, aiming to restore most of its export capacity within two months.

European stocks are up and the Stoxx 50 is on track for its longest winning streak of the year. The Stoxx 600 rises 0.5%; industrial and banking stocks are outperforming while automotive and retail stocks are among the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• Allegro.eu gains as much as 5.3%, the most since May, after Permira ended its decade-long investment in the e-commerce company, with the buyout firm offloading around 131 million shares, with a total transaction value of around $1.2 billion
• Puma shares gain as much as 5.4%, the most since June 4, after HSBC upgraded the German sportswear maker to buy from hold, citing Anta Sports’ stake as a “catalyst for unlocking significant growth opportunities
• Kinepolis shares rise as much as 7.1%, trading at their highest level in almost 10 months, after the movie theater operator had its price target raised to a new Street-high at Berenberg
• Redcare shares gain as much as 11%, adding to Monday’s 17% advance, after the German online pharmacy upgraded its outlook for the year, saying preliminary second-quarter numbers came in stronger than expected
• GEA Group rises as much as 4.6% as Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy on what is now seen as a “more compelling mismatch between the group’s resilient fundamentals and the current valuation”
• PolyPeptide gains as much as 6.4%, the most in more than two months, after Berenberg lifted its price target on the stock, citing confidence in the Swiss contract development and manufacturing organization’s full-year guidance
• Tatton Asset Management shares rise as much as 13%, the most since November 2022, to erase this year’s losses after the firm posted full-year earnings described as “impressive” by RBC Capital Markets
• DFDS falls as much as 7.3%, paring much of a rally over the last two months, as SEB Bank analysts cut their recommendation on the stock to sell, saying the transport and logistics company face “elevated” risks in the Mediterranean
• Rathbones shares fall as much as 19%, the most ever, as the investment management group pauses bringing on new clients requiring enhanced due diligence for as much as a year following talks with the Financial Conduct Authority
• Frasers Group shares drop as much as 7%, edging further off the 2024 high reached on Friday, after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the retailer, saying there’s little upside to its price target following recent gains
• Huber+Suhner declines as much as 5.6% following a downgrade to hold at Berenberg, which says that while there remains a strong investment case for the maker of telecommunications products, upside is limited

Asian stocks advanced for a third straight session after Japan raised interest rates, with investors awaiting further details on the US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.5%, lifted by chipmakers and defense contractors. South Korea’s Kospi outperformed, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at a record high after the Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate. Australian stocks erased earlier losses to close little changed after the Reserve Bank kept rates unchanged. Elsewhere, stocks slumped in Hong Kong as data showed Chinese consumer spending fell for the first time since the pandemic. Indonesian markets were closed for a holiday, while stocks mostly rose in the rest of Southeast Asia.

In FX, the dollar inches lower, sending the euro back above $1.16. The yen reversed earlier gains against the dollar and traded near 160.30, with JGB yields rising across the curve after the BOJ hiked rates to 1% overnight.The Aussie weakened 0.3%, while the country’s 3-year yield erased an earlier advance.

In rates, treasuries advanced, supported by gains across European bonds during London morning as oil prices extend declines. With US and Iran preparing to sign an interim peace deal in Switzerland oil is headed for longest run of declines this year on expectations a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will revive supply. Treasury yields are 2bp-4bp richer across a flatter curve with 2s10s spread 1.2bp tighter on the day. 10-year is about 3.5bp lower near 4.44%, keeping pace with bunds and gilts in the sector. Treasury auctions resume with $13 billion 20-year bond reopening; WI 20-year yield near 4.942% is ~18bp richer than last month’s new-issue auction result. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far; Monday’s eight sales totaling nearly $36 billion, including Nvidia’s $25 billion offering, left gross new-issue supply 31% ahead of last year’s pace and roughly in line with 2020’s record tempo. Focal points of US session focus include a 20-year bond auction at 1pm New York time. The BOJ hiked rates earlier, the RBA held.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down more than 3% at lowest level since early March and on the worst daily losing streak of the year on the US-Iran interim deal, despite disagreement on how long restoring activity in the Strait of Hormuz will take. Brent slides toward $81/barrel and is at the lowest level since March. Gold prices are higher and comfortably above $4,300/oz.

US economic data calendar includes weekly ADP employment change (8:15am), May import/export price indexes, June NY Fed services business activity and May housing starts/building permits (8:30am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The US and Iran are preparing to formally sign their interim peace deal in Switzerland on Friday while the text of the MOU is yet to be released. Donald Trump said the deal can survive even if Israel attacks Lebanon. Iran claimed the US has started lifting its naval blockade, semi-official ISNA reported. BBG
• Shipowners will not resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks until they are confident that the US-Iran deal is “material”, the head of the world’s biggest tanker operator has warned. FT
• A price war is unfolding in China’s crowded artificial intelligence sector as companies cut rates or dangle promotions at a pivotal moment when falling costs and converging model capabilities are ratcheting up the competitive pressure, according to analysts. SCMP
• China's consumer spending and investment have slumped to levels unseen since the pandemic, with retail sales declining 0.6% last month from a year ago. Industrial production climbed 4.5%, driven by a boom in exports and tech-related industries, but the economy is at risk of a deeper slowdown due to weak domestic demand. RTRS
• Qatar aims to restore most of its LNG export capacity within two months of the strait’s reopening, people familiar said. BBG
• The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high on Tuesday in a landmark step in its policy normalization, signaling readiness to tighten further as it focuses ‌on taming price pressures from the Iran-war-induced energy shock. The hike was the first since December and aligns the BOJ with other central banks shifting towards tighter policy to combat inflation, including the ECB. RTRS
• Australia's central bank held its cash rate steady at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy was slowing in the face of tighter financial conditions but warned it might yet hike again if needed to control inflation. RTRS
• Oil companies large and small are showing new interest in committing to drill in Venezuela, after nearly six months of reluctance following the U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro and the Trump administration’s subsequent call for them to invest. Politico
• Talks between Anthropic and Trump administration officials continued Monday without a deal to resolve the security concerns that pushed the White House to restrict access to the artificial-intelligence company’s latest model, increasing urgency on both sides to find a resolution. WSJ

Middle East News

• US President Trump posted on Truth Social "Iran has agreed to never have a Nuclear Weapon! Also, the story that the U.S. is paying Iran 300 million [sic] Dollars is Fake News, put out by the Dumocrats!!!"
• US President Trump's administration considers USD 300bln fund for Iran if deal is upheld, and incentives would be tied to Tehran's performance, including over opening up the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear talks, according to FT.
• US President Trump's close aide Bruesewitz clarified that the USD 300bln Iran reconstruction plan will only be established after Iran completely dismantles its nuclear program, ceases support for terrorist organisations and conducts significant internal reforms.
• US Vice President J.D. Vance said the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is a brief, one-and-a-half-page document serving as a broad framework rather than a detailed agreement, and is a very general document that requires technical talks. Vance also stated that Trump may release the US-Iran agreement before Friday and affirmed the agreement is expected to be signed on Friday.
• CIA Director Ratcliffe told US President Trump and senior administration officials that information gathered by US intelligence agencies raises serious doubts about Iran's willingness to make the concessions the US seeks in a final nuclear deal, according to Axios. Sources also stated that Trump and his team discussed intelligence gathered by US intelligence agencies, which showed the way Iranian officials were discussing the deal among themselves was inconsistent with what they were telling mediators and the US. Furthermore, Ratcliffe was not the only sceptic on Trump's senior team, as Secretary of State Rubio and Defence Secretary Hegseth expressed concerns and raised questions about the deal in internal discussions, while VP Vance and envoys Witkoff and Kushner supported it.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said the formal activation of the MOU will be on Friday. That will immediately end the war, including in Lebanon. Second phase negotiations would then commence immediately. Next round of US-Iran talks will start Friday in Switzerland.
• Israeli artillery shelling was reported in the Nabatieh district of southern Lebanon. It was separately reported that Hezbollah fired rockets and artillery at Israeli soldiers, while the Israeli military said it intercepted numerous rockets launched by Hezbollah towards troops in southern Lebanon.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the prior day's rally and US-Iran peace deal euphoria petered out amid a continued lack of concrete details regarding the interim agreement and as market participants turn their attention to this week's busy slate of central bank policy decisions. ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in tech, consumer discretionary and industrials, while participants also digested the RBA rate decision in which the central bank paused after three consecutive rate hikes, but warned of potential future hikes if necessary and remained hawkish regarding inflation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy as participants digested mixed activity data in which Industrial Production topped forecasts, but Retail Sales missed and printed in contraction territory, while the PBoC continued its increased liquidity efforts.

Top Asian News

• China's National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson said China's economic foundation needs to be strengthened, and that the external situation is complex and volatile, while China is to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, and will stabilise employment and the market. NBS also stated that China is to expand domestic demand and that some companies face relatively big pressure. Furthermore, the stats bureau spokesperson said there is still ample space for China to expand investment and that stronger employment and income growth are needed to boost consumption, as well as stated that China has ample policy space, reserves and flexible tools available to ensure stable economic growth, but also acknowledged that China's foreign trade faces some pressure due to external uncertainties.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are extending on Monday's gains but yet to reach the best levels reached in the prior session. To recap the main driver, the US and Iran have agreed to a preliminary deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, new updates regarding the deal have been light as markets now wait for the official MoU signing on Friday. European sectors are broadly higher. Industrial Goods & Services (+1.5%) and Banks (+1.2%) are the clear outperformers, with Media (+0.8%) completing the top 3 sectors. On the downside, Autos (-0.9%) and Retail (-0.6%) are the underperformers.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves said will see a further "big" uplift in defence spending within the DIP and hopes to get to the next budget without the need to raise taxes.
• Germany's RWI expects the German economy to stagnate in Q2 2026, sees inflation at 3.1% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, sees growth at 0.8% in 2026 and 2027.
• EU officials are drafting a blueprint to manage banking crisis liquidity, according to POLITICO.

FX

• DXY was firmer in APAC trade, though gains have reversed since as energy benchmarks continue lower on reports that Qatar is to reach 80% output within two months of the Strait of Hormuz reopening. As oil gradually returns to around pre-war levels, focus is ever-shifting towards central bank actions rather than terms of trade. On that note, Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Chair is due on Wednesday, widely expected as a hold. The docket today is light, with just ADP employment weekly and Import/Export prices due. DXY marked a session low just above the 99.60 mark, currently unchanged on the day.
• RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.35% as expected, striking a hawkish tone by explicitly signalling further hikes on the table. Alongside the high bar set by markets of hawkishness by the RBA, participants this morning seemingly focused on the soft Australian growth story, with the Aussie under modest pressure, albeit just reversing some of Monday’s risk-on bid. Despite the reaction post-RBA, Westpac says next hike could come in August should the quarterly June inflation figure be strong, while ING suggests it is likely to remain on hold through year-end as inflation broadly tracks the board’s baseline scenario. AUD/USD -0.1% but within Monday's range. The pair marked a session low just above 0.7040.
• BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 1.00% in a 7-1 vote split, as expected. Asada was the dissenter, arguing that downside risks to employment and production were larger than inflation risks. JPY unreactive to the meeting/presser with Uchida not providing a clear bias, as had been expected heading into the presser given he was standing in for Governor Ueda. Not many clues as to what future policy will look like, with market pricing unchanged, with 85% probability of the BoJ’s next tightening in December. USD/JPY U/C, was supported by 160.00 throughout the meeting/presser.

Central Banks

• The BoJ hiked its short-term interest rates by 25bps to 1.00%, as expected, while it pauses tapering of bond buys in which it will keep monthly pace of JGB buying at around JPY 2tln from April 2027. Decision made by 7-1 vote, with Asada dissenting against a hike.
• In the post-policy press conference, BoJ's Uchida said financial conditions have been accommodative while stating there is a risk of underlying inflation deviating upward to a level above the price target. All-in-all, Uchida avoided any commentary pertaining to forward guidance.
• The RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, but warned of potential further hikes if necessary citing persistent inflation and oil supply disruptions.
• In the post-policy press conference, RBA Governor Bullock said inflation remains too high, with the Board still concerned about inflation. No hike was considered at the meeting but doesn't rule out that the Bank might have to do more on rates. Risks are still to the upside.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks (ex-JGBs) started the European session trading on either side of the unchanged mark, with the complex ultimately taking a breather from the gains seen in the prior session. However, some pressure was seen in the crude complex soon after the European cash open, which helped lift fixed paper to highs. As such, yields are lower across the curve, but with underperformance now in the belly of the curve, in contrast to short-end underperformance seen on Monday; nonetheless, the bull-steepening bias remains. The slight pressure in the belly is perhaps indicative of markets beginning to price in the economic impact of the resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz; recent updates out of Qatar have suggested that it can restore half of its LNG output within a month, 80% within two months
• JGBs (-47 ticks) lag vs peers, given the BoJ’s decision to hike rates by 25bps (as expected) and its announcement to pause the tapering of JGB purchases from FY27. The accompanying presser provided little updates, with Deputy Governor Uchida avoiding any commentary pertaining to forward guidance. As it stands, markets assign an 85% chance of a hike by year-end, so focus remains firmly on Ueda’s comments when he returns from hospital.
• USTs (+6 ticks) trade at the upper end of a 109-19 to 109-26+ range. Overnight action saw the benchmark move sideways around the unchanged mark, before then moving higher as energy prices fell. From a yield perspective, the US 10yr remains just shy of the 4.50% mark, last at 4.44% - and well beyond pre-war levels at c. 4.00%. Economists will argue that, for now, the damage to the global economy has already filtered through; the US is dealing with elevated inflation, which may keep yields propped up in the short-term.
• Bunds (+17 ticks) and Gilts (+30 ticks) follow the bullish bias mentioned earlier, and trade towards their respective highs. The former digested a better than expected ZEW survey, as markets saw more positive developments on the US-Iran situation. Elsewhere, a 2036 Gilt auction passed with solid demand.
• Germany sells EUR 3.824bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.50% 2031 Bobl: b/c 1.64x (prev. 1.32x), average yield 2.64% (prev. 2.85%), retention 23.5% (prev. 23.12%).
• The UK sells GBP 4.25bln 4.875% 2036 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.46x (prev. 3.45x), average yield 4.858% (prev. 5.026%), tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.3bps).

Commodities

• Geopolitical newsflow has calmed down as markets now await the official MoU signing on Friday. More recently, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said a new round of US-Iran talks will start on the day of the signing in Switzerland. Concrete MoU details remain unclear. Overnight, US President Trump said Iran has agreed never to have a nuclear weapon.
• Crude futures traded rangebound throughout the Asia-Pac session but have seen pressure in recent trade, driven by reports that Qatar is planning to rapidly boost LNG production to about 50% capacity a month after safe passage through the Strait is restored and c. 80% within two months. WTI Jul'26 slips below the USD 80/bbl mark, trading at the lower end of its USD 78.41-81.58/bbl range. Brent Aug'26 kissed the round USD 81/bbl mark (USD 81.00-83.80/bbl). Dutch TTF also lower, but remains above the EUR 42/MWh mark.
• Spot gold is on a firmer footing, after gains were pared back slightly in the latter end of Monday's session. The yellow metal remains above the key USD 4300/oz handle, currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4306-4336/oz band. According to a WGC survey of 74 central banks, 45% said they plan to buy gold in the coming year, with only 1 saying it plans to cut its holdings. “I think the fall in the price is an opportunity for some central banks to start buying in,” said Shaokai Fan, global head of central banks for the WGC.
• 3M LME Copper trades choppy, with initial weakness driven by the disappointing Chinese domestic data. Retail sales fell for the first time in over 3 years, contracting 0.6% in May and missing estimates of 0%. In contrast, industrial production rose 4.5%, beating the 4.3% consensus. The red metal trades in the bottom half of its USD 13.64k-13.77k/t range.
• Qatar to restore half of its LNG output a month after the Strait of Hormuz opens, with output to reach 80% of full output within two months, according to Bloomberg.
• Iranian Oil Minister announced plans to rapidly increase gas production in fields covered by the Central Iranian Oil Company.
• Iranian Energy Minister said Tehran will soon connect its electricity grid with Qatar.
• Mitsui OSK Lines (9104 JT) CEO said that many operators would wait at least a couple of weeks or a month before resuming normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4'26 Brent crude forecast to USD 80/bbl (prev. USD 90/bbl). Cut 2027 Brent forecast to USD 75/bbl (prev. USD 80/bbl), cut WTI forecast to USD 75/bbl in Q4'26 and USD 70 for 2027.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: May Import Price Index MoM, est. 1%, prior 1.9%
• 8:30 am: May Housing Starts, est. 1430k, prior 1465k
• 8:30 am: May Building Permits, est. 1417.5k, prior 1423k

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have had an eventful 24 hours, with a major rally in the US and Europe as investors reacted to the US-Iran deal announced over the weekend. So that’s driven a wave of optimism across multiple asset classes, with Brent crude (-4.76%) closing at a three-month low of $83.17/bbl, along with a further -0.23% decline this morning to $82.98/bbl. And with investors pricing out the chance of stagflation, the S&P 500 (+1.65%) closed back within 1% of its record high, whilst the STOXX 600 (+0.19%) closed at its first record since the conflict began.

Overnight, there’s been no letup in the newsflow, as the Bank of Japan delivered a 25bp rate hike as expected, taking their policy rate to its highest since 1995, at 1%. They also signalled further hikes to come, and their statement said that “given that underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent and financial conditions have been accommodative, the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate”. Moreover, they also announced they’d stop tapering their monthly JGB purchases in the months ahead. So at the moment, they’re still purchasing 2.7tn yen per month, and the plan is to keep reducing those monthly purchases by 200bn yen each quarter until Q1 2027. But then from April 2027, they’re going to keep that pace steady at around 2tn yen. In response, Japanese government bonds have seen a decent selloff, with the 10yr yield up +7.5bps to 2.64%, but the Nikkei (+0.42%) is still on track for another record.

Speaking of central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia also announced they’d leave rates unchanged this morning. The move was widely expected, and keeps their cash rate at 4.35% after hiking at the last 3 meetings. However, even as they held rates for the first time this year, the statement also explicitly suggested they might hike again if needed, whilst warning that “ headline and underlying inflation are still too high.” Against that backdrop, yields on 10yr Australian government bonds are up +3.5bps this morning at 4.84%.

Elsewhere overnight, China’s activity data for May was released, which showed retail sales down by -0.6% on a year-on-year basis (vs. -0.2% expected). Meanwhile, fixed asset investment over the first five months of the year was also down -4.1% compared to the previous year (vs. -2.3% expected). That said, there were some upside surprises, with industrial production up +4.5% year-on-year in May (vs. +4.4% expected). Meanwhile, equities in mainland China have seen modest gains, with the CSI 300 (+0.13%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.06%) both up slightly.

More broadly, markets have clearly stabilised this morning after the surge of optimism that surrounded the deal yesterday. So futures on the S&P 500 (-0.08%) are pointing slightly lower, and the 10yr Treasury yield is up +0.2bps at 4.48%. In part, that comes as there’s still a lot of question marks over how the deal will be implemented, as we don’t have the full details or a text yet. Nevertheless, we did hear from a US official yesterday, who briefed reporters on the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). They said the details would be released in 24-48 hours, and it would provide for an immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, although it would take time given the mines. Meanwhile, the US and Iran would launch technical talks later this week. Then later on CNN, Vice President JD Vance said the MoU was a “very general” document and “about a page and a half”.

As mentioned, the deal’s announcement led to a clear fall in oil prices, with Brent crude at a three-month low. But we also saw the futures curve increasingly normalise, as longer-dated futures moved more in line with the front-end price. So the 6-month future came down -3.45% to $78.87/bbl, meaning that the difference between the 6-month and the front-end future was actually the smallest since the conflict began, at just $4.30. In other words, investors are no longer pricing a sharp fall in oil prices over the next six months, as that was predicated on an agreement that’s now been announced. Moreover, the decline was clear across other energy commodities, with European natural gas futures (-9.12%) closing at a 7-week low of €42.51/MWh.

With energy prices coming down, that helped to ease fears about inflation on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the 1yr Euro inflation swap (-12.0bps) fell to just 2.713%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (-8.8bps) fell to 2.663%, which for both was the lowest in three months. In addition, investors also moved to price out the chance of aggressive rate hikes, with a more dovish profile for central banks over the months ahead. So for the Fed, investors were only pricing in a 79% chance of a rate hike by the December meeting. And over at the ECB, investors were pricing in just 31.4bps of further hikes by December, implying growing doubt about a third ECB hike this year, given they already delivered a 25bp hike last week.

With inflation fears easing and rate hikes being priced out, that led to a sovereign bond rally on both sides of the Atlantic. So in the US, the 2yr Treasury yield (-1.5bps) fell to 4.066%, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-0.6bps) fell to 4.47%. Meanwhile in Europe, there were even bigger declines given their relative exposure to the energy shock, with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.1bps), OATs (-4.8bps) and BTPs (-5.3bps) all falling back.

That backdrop was a very strong one for equities too, with a decent surge across the board. For instance, the S&P 500 (+1.65%) closed less than 1% beneath its record high, and there were even bigger gains for tech stocks, with the NASDAQ (+3.07%) surging. Notably, the Philly semiconductor index (+5.45%) even closed at a record high, which felt a long way from a week-and-a-half ago, back when the index slumped more than -10% on the day of the jobs report that led markets to price in a more hawkish Fed. Then in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.19%) finally closed at a new record for the first time since February 27, the day before the Iran conflict began.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, although a few of the US releases came in on the softer side. So industrial production was only up +0.1% in May (vs. +0.3% expected), albeit with a two-tenths positive revision to the April reading. Then the Empire State manufacturing survey fell more than expected to 5.7 (vs. 13.7 expected), whilst the NAHB’s housing market for June unexpectedly fell to 35 (vs. 37 expected).

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the German ZEW survey for June, and US housing starts for May. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Escriva, Lane and Sleijpen.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 08:19

SpaceX Acquires Cursor AI In $60 Billion Deal As Coding Agent Race Heats Up

SpaceX has agreed to acquire AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion, giving Elon Musk's artificial intelligence empire a leg up in the chatbot coding race currently led by frontier AI labs such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google.

The Cursor acquisition was announced in a SpaceX 8-K filing with the SEC on Tuesday morning. Details of the deal show that Cursor shareholders will receive SpaceX Class A common stock, implying a Cursor equity value of $60 billion.

The SpaceX-Cursor deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and other closing conditions.

AI coding tools are among the fastest-growing segments in the AI chatbot race. Over the last eight months, coding technology has rapidly matured and can now build everything from large software projects to websites using plain-language prompts.

There are reasons to believe AI coding could be one of the quickest pathways to achieving artificial general intelligence, or AI systems that are generally as smart as humans.

The deal bolsters SpaceX's AI capabilities just days after the company launched an unprecedented initial public offering.

Overnight, SPCX shares nearly hit $230 per share, giving it a $3 trillion market cap and surpassing MSFT in value.

As of Tuesday morning, shares were trading around $209.

SPCX options begin trading today, which could result in a strong gamma squeeze, potentially sending the stock to $400 or even $420 in the near term (read report).

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 07:45

US Residential Solar Installations Set To Stall For Years As Market Hits Wall

Residential solar in the US is actively cratering after President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill resulted in the sunsetting of a key tax credit for homeowners last year - which will result in a prolonged slump in installations, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

"The market is not expected to recover to the record levels of 2023 anytime in the next decade," according to the report. 

The downturn is widespread - with installers nationwide reporting steep drops in new rooftop projects. Higher interest rates, the winding down of certain federal incentives, and shifting state policies are cited as primary drivers behind the slowdown. Many homeowners are now facing longer payback periods and higher upfront costs, making the economics less attractive than in previous years.

Two notable exceptions stand out amid the broader decline. California and Florida continue to see relatively stronger demand, supported by state-level incentives, high electricity prices, and established installer networks. Even in these states, however, growth has moderated compared with the boom years, and analysts expect the national picture to remain challenged for the foreseeable future.

Impact on Major Players and Supply Chain

Companies such as Sunrun, Enphase Energy, and SunPower have already felt the effects through softer order books and margin pressure. The residential segment, once a bright spot in the clean energy transition, is now forcing these firms to adjust forecasts and focus more on commercial and utility-scale projects where demand remains steadier.

The stall comes at a time when broader energy policy debates are intensifying. With changing federal priorities and questions around long-term subsidy structures, the residential solar sector is confronting the reality that rapid adoption was heavily dependent on favorable financing and generous tax credits that are now fading.

This development underscores the challenges of scaling residential renewables without sustained policy tailwinds. While utility-scale solar and battery storage continue to expand in many regions, the rooftop market's slowdown highlights how sensitive consumer adoption remains to interest rates, payback periods, and regulatory certainty. BloombergNEF's outlook suggests the industry may need several years to stabilize before any meaningful recovery takes hold.

That said, Californa and Florida are bucking the trend...

California, a longtime solar leader, and Florida, which passed a new pro-solar law last year. BloombergNEF projects Florida’s residential solar additions will hit 710 megawatts in 2026, a 62% increase over last year. California’s installations are also forecast to grow 17% in 2026. Both states are also leading on solar permit applications. -Bloomberg

The national crunch is also affecting the market for solar batteries - from which only about 1.4 gigawatts of home storage is expected to go online this year, down 26% from 2025. That said, some 40% of new residential solar systems in the first three months of 2026 had batteries, BloombergNEF found, up from an average 35% last year. 

"Battery storage is the future of home solar," said BloombergNEF analyst, Cosmo van Steenis. "Batteries can lay up stores of solar power in the daytime and release them at night."

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 06:55

SpaceX Erupts In After Hours Trading, Hits $3 Trillion Market Cap, Surpassing Microsoft

Update (9:00pm): just a few minutes after the initial post, the squeeze is accelerating and SPCX hit just shy of $230, or $3 trillion in market cap, surpassing MSFT in value.

And what is even crazier, tomorrow SPCX options start trading, which means one good, solid gamma squeeze could send this stock to $400, surpassing NVDA as the world's biggest company in the process.

Earlier:

After a relatively calm first day of trading, the gamma squeeze crew has finally sniffed out that SpaceX's float makes it a perfect candidate for an OTM-call option driven meltup, and the stock soared ~20% today, adding over $400 billion in market in the regular session.

Commenting on the move, Vanda Track earlier noted that SpaceX topped the leaderboard as the most bought stock by retail investors for a second consecutive session, with net buying potentially set to clear $100mn for the second day in a row.

On a net basis, retail investors have now bought almost as much SPCX over the last two sessions as they bought across the entire US stock market last week. In fact, today's $93.8mn of net buying in SpaceX accounts for roughly 73% of all retail net buying across single stocks so far today.

 
The one notable development today according to Vanda, is that we're seeing some appetite return to semiconductor stocks. Names such as MRVL, MU, SNDK and AVGO have all seen some modest buying today amid the rebound. However, retail flows remain selective rather than broad-based, with leveraged bearish ETFs such as SQQQ and SOXS also among today's most bought securities by retail investors.

Vanda's conclusion is that "the broader message remains unchanged: SpaceX has not sparked a retail buying frenzy across the market. Instead, retail investors continue to direct capital into this one name, while maintaining a relatively cautious stance elsewhere."

And since momentum elsewhere is fading, retail has decided to double down on the very illiquid SPCX after hours, where its low float has made it a great squeeze candidate by the retail crew, and the stock is now exploding higher, and at last check was trading just over $210, meaning the stock has added $250 billion in market cap after the close - or a total of $650 billion today alone...

...  which translates into a market cap of $2.75 trillion or more than Apple's $2.65 trillion, and just behind MSFT's $2.97 trillion

 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 06:15

Eating Meat Is The Norm Almost Everywhere

On average, 91 percent of people surveyed for Statista's Consumer Insights in 32 countries said that their diet contained meat – highlighting that despite the trend around meat substitutes and plant-based products, eating meat remains the norm almost everywhere in the world.

To satisfy the world's hunger for meat, 373 million tons of it were produced globally in 2024.

Because meat consumption typically increases as countries grow wealthier, that number has been rising.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, in only three out of 32 countries – the Philippines, the United Arab Emirates and India – fewer than 90 percent of respondents said that they ate meat.

The latter country had the lowest score at 56 percent meat eaters. The Philippines still counted 88 percent of respondents saying they ate meat, while that number was 86 percent in the United Arab Emirates, likely influenced by the large South Asian diaspora there. India’s penchant for vegetarian fare is connected to Brahmanism or Vedic religion, a belief system connected to the caste of Brahmans, which are highly regarded in the Indian caste system, making vegetarianism equally desirable.

You will find more infographics at Statista

In Western countries, vegetarianism is more often tied to concerns about environmental impact or unethical practices in meat production. Despite higher meat consumption in these countries, meat substitutes are relatively more popular there. For example, 19 percent in the Netherlands and 15 percent in Switzerland said they bought them regularly. In Vietnam, 22 percent purchase meat substitutes regularly - the highest in the survey. Asian economies produce many traditional meat substitutes like tofu and seitan, whose long-standing popularity is intertwined with the history of Buddhism in the region.

The conceptualization of foregoing meat not only as a moral but as an environmental act has led to meat-eaters also purchasing meat substitutes, as the overlapping of figures from the survey suggest. Regular purchase of meat substitutes was among the lowest in the meat-loving nation of South Korea, where only 6 percent of people said they purchased them on the regular.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 05:45

China's Return To The Oil Market Could Boost Inflation

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

The U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could prompt China to return to buying more crude after months of multi-year-low purchases, which could reignite inflationary pressures despite the expected ease of oil flows from the Middle East.   

Late on Sunday, the U.S. and Iran announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz more than 100 days after its closure. This re-opening could happen as soon as an agreement is signed on Friday. News of the deal sent oil prices tumbling early on Monday, with Brent Crude prices down to $83 per barrel, and WTI Crude at the $80 a barrel handle.

If the agreement holds and flows through the Strait of Hormuz, begin to tick up relatively quickly, China could resume buying more crude, and this additional demand, which had vanished in the past three months, could tighten the oil market and drive up inflation, analysts at Bloomberg Economics said in a note on Monday.

“Any recovery in Chinese oil demand — particularly if energy flows remain constrained — could tighten global energy markets, reignite inflation pressures and complicate the task facing central banks,” Bloomberg Economics’ analysts wrote.

Energy flows are likely to take months to recover to pre-war levels, assuming the deal holds and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sustainably increases, analysts say.

China’s severely reduced crude oil imports have been a key anchor keeping oil prices below $100 per barrel during the past few weeks, alongside record U.S. crude and fuel exports and global releases from strategic oil stockpiles coordinated by the International Energy Agency.  

Crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest since October 2017 due to the price spike.

The world’s top crude importer started tapping its huge oil reserves last month, in a sign that Beijing is still refraining from paying top-dollar for prompt crude deliveries.

So far into this unprecedented crisis, China has slashed refinery run rates, limited exports, and cut demand for road transportation fuels as consumers prefer driving EVs over paying high gasoline prices.

The key question for the oil market is how much demand China would generate when it returns to more active crude purchases.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 05:00

Lebanon Hosts The World's Highest Concentration Of Refugees, US Ranks 82nd

The countries carrying the world’s largest refugee burden are often not the ones most people expect.

Using data from the UNHCR via Our World in Data, this graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, ranks countries by the number of refugees hosted per 1,000 residents in 2024.

The results reveal how proximity to conflict frequently matters more than economic size. Many of the countries at the top of the ranking border active war zones and have absorbed large refugee populations relative to their own populations.

Which Countries Carry the Largest Refugee Burden?

Roughly two-thirds of the world’s refugees remain in neighboring countries, helping explain why several relatively small nations rank ahead of much larger economies.

Rather than being distributed across the world’s wealthiest countries, refugee populations are often concentrated in states that share borders with major conflicts. The ranking below shows which countries carry the largest refugee burden relative to their population.

Why Does Lebanon Rank So High?

Lebanon tops the ranking by a wide margin, hosting 130.7 refugees per 1,000 residents. Put differently, about one out of every eight people living in the country is a refugee, the highest ratio in the world.

Its position reflects the country’s proximity to Syria, which has produced one of the world’s largest refugee crises since civil war broke out in 2011. Over the past decade, millions of Syrians have sought refuge in neighboring countries, with Lebanon absorbing one of the largest shares relative to its population.

The country has also faced mounting economic and political challenges of its own. More recently, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah displaced more than one million people within Lebanon, adding further strain to public services and infrastructure.

Taken together, these pressures help explain why Lebanon remains one of the countries most affected by displacement anywhere in the world.

Geography Matters More Than Wealth

Many of the countries hosting the largest refugee populations are located near active conflicts or regions experiencing prolonged instability.

Jordan and Lebanon border Syria. Moldova shares a border with Ukraine. Chad hosts refugees from neighboring Sudan, while Uganda has long received people fleeing violence in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The pattern helps explain why many smaller countries appear near the top of the ranking despite having far fewer economic resources than larger developed nations.

For refugees, crossing a nearby border is often the fastest and safest option. As a result, neighboring countries frequently absorb the largest influxes long before refugees are resettled elsewhere.

Why the U.S. Ranks 82nd

At first glance, America’s ranking may seem surprisingly low.

The United States hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees and remains the world’s 18th-largest refugee destination in absolute terms.

However, its population of more than 340 million significantly changes the picture.

When refugee numbers are adjusted for population size, the U.S. hosts roughly 1.3 refugees per 1,000 residents, placing it 82nd globally.

The gap highlights why per-capita measures can reveal a different reality than headline totals. While large countries often host more refugees overall, smaller nations can experience a much greater impact relative to their population size.

Refugee Pressures Are Reaching Record Levels

The number of forcibly displaced people worldwide has surpassed 120 million, nearly double the level seen a decade ago. Conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, Syria, and other regions continue to drive displacement across borders.

For host countries, the impact extends beyond humanitarian assistance. Large refugee populations can increase demand for housing, healthcare, education, infrastructure, and public services, particularly in smaller countries with limited resources.

The ranking highlights a reality often overlooked in global migration debates: the countries carrying the largest refugee burden are frequently those located closest to conflict, not necessarily those with the largest economies.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the world’s largest migration corridors.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 04:15

Ebola Cases, Deaths Jump In Congo As Outbreak Spreads

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The number of Ebola cases and deaths has risen in Congo, the epicenter of an ongoing outbreak, officials said on June 14.

Response personnel carry the body of a person who died from Ebola in Bunia, Congo, on June 13, 2026. Jospin Mwisha/AFP via Getty Images

Thirty-two new deaths and 72 new cases have been confirmed in the central African country, Congo's Ministry of Communications said in a statement.

The cumulative number of cases is up to 782, and the cumulative number of deaths is 181.

The case fatality rate, or the percentage of sick people who have died, is 23.1 percent.

The outbreak, which was first detected in May but believed to have started earlier, has also spread to two additional health zones in Congo, officials said. One of the new zones is in Ituri province, where most of the cases are; the second is in North Kivu province.

The three provinces with reported cases are all in eastern Congo.

Health officials have been working to identify suspected cases and encourage people with symptoms to travel to health facilities.

"Vigilance remains essential. Anyone presenting with fever, vomiting, diarrhea, or any other suspicious symptoms must go immediately to the nearest health facility for prompt care," the ministry stated. "Adherence to preventive measures - particularly regular handwashing, acceptance of contact tracing, and avoidance of any contact with sick or deceased individuals from suspected causes - remains crucial to curb the spread of the epidemic."

The largest Ebola outbreak in history was in West Africa and ran from 2014 through 2016. There were 28,610 reported cases, and 11,308 reported deaths.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a June 11 paper that, if crucial public health measures are not implemented, the new outbreak could become as large as the 2014 outbreak.

"Although the worst outcomes (higher numbers of cases and associated deaths) in these projections were less likely when a larger proportion of patients were identified, isolated, and treated, this outbreak could, within 3 months and under low-isolation scenarios, become the second largest Ebola outbreak in history," the CDC said.

Ebola is a disease caused by orthoebolaviruses. The current outbreak is caused by the rarely seen Bundibugyo virus.

Transmission primarily happens through direct contact with bodily fluids from infected individuals.

While Ebola can in many cases be deadly, 56 people have recovered in the outbreak in Congo, according to the latest figures.

Another 359 patients are in isolation or being treated in a hospital.

Uganda, which shares a border with Congo, has reported 19 Ebola cases and two deaths. Ugandan officials said Monday that there have been no cases for 10 days.

"Ebola is under control in Uganda," Uganda's Ministry of Health said in a Jun 13 post on X. Ugandan officials said people should visit the country.

Sanitation workers from Bunia city government spray disinfectant in the central market area near a rubbish truck in Ituri province, as they continue efforts to combat the Ebola outbreak in Bunia, Congo, on May 23, 2026. Moses Sawasawa/AP Photo Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 03:30

Norwegian Royal Family Rocked: Crown Princess's Son Convicted of Rape, Sentenced To Four Years

In a verdict that has rocked Norway's monarchy, Marius Borg Høiby, the 29-year-old son of Crown Princess Mette-Marit, was found guilty of two counts of rape and sentenced to four years in prison.

Marius Borg Høiby, son of Norwegian Crown Princess Mette-Marit, pictured in Oslo, Norway on June 16, 2022. Hakon Mosvold Larsen/NTB/AFP/Getty Images

The Oslo District Court convicted him on 34 of 40 charges, spanning rape, assault, abuse in close relationships, drug offenses, and restraining order violations. He was acquitted on the other two rape counts. Prosecutors had demanded over seven years; the defense sought 18 months. He must also pay victims around $61,000 in compensation.

Key Facts from the Verdict

• Guilty on two counts of rape
• Sentenced to four years in prison
• Acquitted on two other rape charges
• Convicted on 34 out of 40 total charges
• Ordered to pay approximately $61,000 to victims
• Defense plans to appeal rape and domestic violence convictions

The seven-week trial detailed Høiby's struggles with drug addiction and a lifestyle of excess. Evidence included self-made videos of sexual encounters and more than 800 electronic messages. In court, he described an "extreme need for recognition" from his unique position in the royal family.

"I’m mostly known as my mother’s son, not anything else. So I’ve had an extreme need for recognition my whole life," he told the court. "And that manifested itself in a lot of sex, a lot of drugs, and a lot of alcohol."

The incidents took place between 2018 and 2024 after nights of partying. Prosecutors argued that what began as consensual sex became non-consensual when the women were asleep or incapacitated. Høiby insisted he was "not in the habit of having sex with women who are asleep."

His lawyers have said he will appeal and have pushed for his release so he can support his ailing mother.

Princess Mette-Marit's Health and Royal Family Pressure

Crown Princess Mette-Marit, 52, is battling pulmonary fibrosis and is on a lung-transplant waiting list. Doctors have indicated she may have only about a year left without a successful transplant.

Marius Borg Høiby with his mother Crown Princess Mette-Marit, pictured in 2022 Credit: PDKOB/The Mega Agency

The scandal comes amid other challenges for the royals, including criticism over the princess's past contact with Jeffrey Epstein after his 2008 conviction. Polls showed support for the monarchy falling to a record low of 60% during the trial, with a slight recovery later.

The Royal House has stated it has no comment on the court outcome.

This case underscores the contrast between the public image of the Norwegian royal family and the private difficulties faced by its members.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 02:45

Remigration & The Save Europe Act

Authored by 'eugyppius' via American Greatmess,

In 2024, the Austrian Identitarian activist Martin Sellner began serious efforts to push his concept of remigration into the political mainstream, and since then the German state and its civil society collaborators have extended him every assistance.

Gregory Bovino, ex-Customs and Border Patrol Chief, appears with (from left) Eva Vlaardingerbroek, Martin Sellner, and Alfonso Gonçalves at the second Remigration Summit in Portugal last week.

Domestic intelligence agents and activist journalists at Correctiv collaborated to convict Sellner and Alternative für Deutschland of planning the mass deportation of naturalized Germans in a late 2023 meeting in Potsdam. They called this small private meeting a “Secret Plan against Germany” and drew not-so-subtle comparisons to the notorious Wannsee Conference. Ensuing anti-AfD protests lasted months, even as litigation succeeded in deconstructing much of the slander Correctiv had propagated. The hysteria cost AfD some support ahead of the European elections, but it also succeeded in making “remigration” a household word throughout the Federal Republic—something that Sellner and his Identitarians could never have achieved on their own. Unbelievably, the Correctiv reporting was turned into a theater piece, and the actual Wannsee Villa where Nazi government officials and SS leaders met to plan the Final Solution in 1942 received a sign advising visitors of Sellner’s Potsdam meeting and “the . . . obvious . . . link between today’s ethno-nationalist fantasies of deportation and the historic Wannsee Conference.”

For their next act, authorities toyed with legally doubtful schemes to ban Sellner from Germany, while police devised pretenses to disrupt the speaking events Sellner had scheduled in the Federal Republic to present his book on Remigration. All this meant more press and more eyeballs for Sellner’s cause. When Sellner co-organized the inaugural “Remigration Summit” last spring in Italy, authorities tried to prevent the attendance of several German Identitarian activists by temporarily banning them from leaving the country, and they did the same again when the second “Remigration Summit” convened in Portugal last week. In each case, their restrictions ensured that small conferences held in other countries and attended by no more than a few hundred people could remain the subject of reporting and controversy here at home.

I don’t know to what degree the German approach to Sellner’s remigration program reflects a calculated strategy, and to what degree it’s just all the pinched head girls in the state bureaucratic apparatus having a collective aneurysm over the latest politically naughty thing to come across their desks. Either way, the unique German system of “defensive democracy” requires an enemy against which to array its defenses, and in the decades since the Berlin Wall fell this enemy has become “the extreme Right”—concentrated like the old Communist foe in the eastern states of the former DDR, embodied by Alternative für Deutschland rather than the SED, and constructed as an equal if not greater threat to Our Democracy. Because, unlike the Communists, this enemy does not really exist, it requires regime propagandists to engage in heavy revisionism—for example, by casting as an NSDAP successor a populist-Right party with politics broadly equivalent to the 1980s-era CDU, and by building up and deploring particular villains like Sellner.

Now, political dissidents and activists of all stripes have a curious relationship with establishment discourse. The one is like oil and the other is like water; they cannot occupy the same space. In the past years, the myth that Diversity Is Our Strength and that mass migration might fix our pension plans, alleviate our cultural ennui, and improve our culinary offerings has collapsed. Anti-migrationism has gone mainstream in many circles, driving right-populists to seize upon remigration as the new cause. I would imagine that a similar process unfolded from the establishment perspective; as major politicians and journalists decided the time had come to put the brakes on the steady stream of younger males streaming into our country from the Global South, they needed to draw a new line in the sand to differentiate themselves from the populist rabble-rousers.

Thus, with the help of literally everybody from Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s benighted traffic light government to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution to Alternative für Deutschland to Martin Sellner and his Identitarians, remigration became the new anti-migration. Which is fine, as far as it goes; people should support the causes they want, and nobody would dispute that, particularly in the last ten years, a great many people have forced their way into Europe, where they have proceeded to abuse our social welfare systems, violate the law at disproportionate rates, and substantially degrade the quality of life. If I could push a button and make these people leave, I would.

Unfortunately, this problem does not come packaged with any easy solutions, and I am less and less certain (1) how remigration is supposed to work and (2) whether the newly ascendant and highly dogmatic remigrationists on the Right have any path toward realizing their vision. While remigrationists preach the manifold benefits of putting migrants on airplanes back to the Global South, the migrants’ native countries in many cases refuse to accept them, mass migration continues, if at a somewhat slower pace, the AfD remains firewalled out of German politics, our elaborate NGO machinery continues to push migrationist humanitarianism, a broad elite consensus resists even efforts to deport many of those who are here illegally, and primary EU law confounds remigrationist proposals at numerous points. Remigration would prove a tall order if 85 percent of Germans reversed their stance on the idea tomorrow. Sellner’s full, heavily technocratic vision, meanwhile, would require broad institutional buy-in and support from all major parties, including large parts of the Left, over a period of decades. We are talking about a new social consensus to compel or encourage the mass resettlement of entire populations, as deep and broad as the consensus that until recently existed behind climatism. That probably can’t happen without serious generational turnover or some kind of serious political upheaval.

I do not write this as a condemnatory political ninny or an incurable contrarian. I consider Sellner a friend, and I am even his translator. Yet personal considerations like these aren’t enough to blunt my skepticism.

The most recent initiative in remigration land is something called the Save Europe Act, rolled out by Sellner and Dutch political activist Eva Vlaardingerbroek at the Remigration Summit 2026 in Portugal. Basically, there’s an EU procedural mechanism known as the European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI), whereby ordinary people can bring a legal proposal for consideration directly before the European Commission. To do this, they need only gather a million signatures in support and meet a few other requirements. Among other things, the Save Europe Act demands “legislative and policy measures” to impose a “moratorium” on non-European migration, to deport “illegally staying migrants, rejected asylum seekers,” and criminals, to “establish a harmonized EU-wide framework for broader remigration” and to “remove social welfare incentives and benefits that function as pull factors for migration.”

All of that sounds great, as does the fact that Sellner and Vlaardingerbroek claim to have gathered well over 200,000 “signatures” so far. Unfortunately, reality tends generally to be less great. To begin with, Sellner and Vlaardingerbroek have yet to register the Save Europe Act with the European Commission at all. The signatures they are collecting—really, just email addresses—are part of an internet publicity campaign and have no wider significance. According to me, chances that the Commission agrees to register the Save Europe Act as a formal ECI are quite low, for the Commission may reject any proposal that “is . . . manifestly contrary to the values of the Union.” If Sellner and Vlaardingerbroek do manage to squeeze their initiative through registration and the Save Europe Act becomes more than a buggy website, then they’ll still need to collect a million signatures—not from random internet people, but from verified citizens of EU member states. And if they meet that hurdle, they’ll compel a response from the Commission and a hearing in the European Parliament. Even in this best-case scenario, there is no chance that the Save Europe Act becomes law, inspires any laws, or changes anything at the EU level at all.

Defenders of the Save Europe Act who have bothered to read the fine print accept that they are not on the path to making Remigration official EU policy. They argue instead that publicity surrounding the Save Europe Act will “move the Overton Window” and normalize remigration as a concept. These arguments neglect the fact that remigration has already been normalized; as I wrote above, since 2024, it has become almost a household word in Germany, if one denoting a very bad and fascistic concept approximately on par with outright genocidal fascism. Otherwise, I have learned to be wary of intangible, immeasurable ends in the world of political activism. Western politics abounds with activists who are changing perceptions, challenging conventions, deconstructing myths, complicating assumptions, correcting prejudices, deepening understandings, and now moving Overton Windows, and the only thing these projects and their goals have in common is that nobody can work out what any of them mean in concrete terms.

Mass migration has been an absolute curse. People want the migrants to stop coming, and they want the ones who are already here to go back home. They feel impotent to change the situation, and it’s natural that they should support social media campaigns promising at the very least to give them a voice. That’s fine, and most of this is probably harmless, but the truth is that we’re not going to petition the migrants away. I’ve read so many appeals to the Overton Window at this point that the concept has become quite threadbare for me, but if anything has shifted mass media discourse these past years, it is not activist campaigns but the manifold and quite serious problems caused by mass migration itself. As in so many other areas—from COVID to climatism—retarded elite policies are failing and unwinding themselves, but we’re not yet winning.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/16/2026 - 02:00

Who Won The Third Gulf War?

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

Iran is poised to gradually return to the US-led Western order within certain limits exactly as Iran’s moderate faction has long wanted, its hardline faction has successfully preserved the armed forces and their missile stockpile, while Israel achieved none of its goals in its most epic defeat ever.

Iran and the US plan to sign a Zarif-inspired memorandum of understanding (MoU) on ending the Third Gulf War this Friday in Switzerland. The exact details aren’t yet known, and Fortune reported that there were at least three competing texts, but all of them “include similar elements around reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, giving Iran sanctions relief and opening the door to longer-term negotiations around its nuclear program.” That’s already enough to arrive at several very important conclusions.

For starters, reopening the strait without Iran’s wartime petroyuan toll booth in place would represent a significant concession by the Islamic Republic, whose media surrogates celebrated this model as an historic multipolar milestone. The same goes for resuming negotiations on its politically sensitive nuclear program. The sanctions relief in exchange might arguably be worth it, however, judging by this estimate here of the profound economic-financial damage caused by the US’ (imperfect) blockade.

On that topic, it was explained here in late March that “The US will have lost the Third Gulf War if China can still rely on Iran as a reliable low-cost energy supplier while turning the yuan into a global reserve currency that challenges the petrodollar”, so preventing both is imperative from the US’ perspective.

With the petroyuan reportedly out of the picture, that leaves Iran’s oil export dependence on China, but sanctions relief could help gradually redirect its sales (such as to India) without disrupting the market.

Likewise, if reports about a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran are true (even if the final sum is much lower but still tens of billions of dollars), then US and Gulf investments in Iran’s energy industry could lead to them controlling its exports.

It was assessed in January that “The US Wants To Replicate The Venezuelan Model In Iran”, which would be on the path to implementation in that scenario.

The resultant interdependence could advance collective security and facilitate the US’ regional withdrawal.

Iran’s moderate (“reformist”) and hardline (“principalist”) factions would therefore achieve some of their goals, the first with respect to sanctions relief and the second with regards to preserving the country’s (arguably battered) armed forces as well as their missile stockpile, not to mention their political system.

Nevertheless, the factional balance would have shifted in the moderate’s favor since the US wouldn’t sign a MoU if the moderates couldn’t control “rogue” hardliners, who could potentially rekindle the war.

It can therefore be concluded that the moderates beat the hardliners in Iran’s deep state power struggle, but this was due to the US and Israel killing dozens of top hardline figures, after which their respective institutions (especially the IRGC) were weakened and ultimately tamed by the moderates.

To be sure, “rogue” hardliners – regardless of their relationship to the IRGC – could still sabotage the MoU, but Trump 2.0 feels comfortable enough that they won’t otherwise it wouldn’t go through with the signing.

A new regional era is emerging whereby the Third Gulf War might very well lead to Iran’s gradual reincorporation into the US-led Western order, albeit within limits, which lays the groundwork for better ties with its Gulf neighbors.

In that scenario, Israel would stand to lose since it could no longer divide-and-rule Iran and the Gulf, nor would the US have its back if Israel resumes hostilities with Iran due to the recent revival of the possibly irreconcilable Trump-Bibi rift. Israel is therefore the war’s biggest loser.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 23:25

Gun Safety: Violent Crime Drops As More Americans Pack Heat

Authored by John R. Lott jr via RealClearInvestigations,

Alessandra Coote was walking on a trail with her 2-year-old daughter and dog two-and-a-half years ago when a man began yelling at her and threatened to kill her dog. When the petite single mom made it back to her Utah home, she decided she needed a firearm for protection.

A few months later, while living in what she described as a “shady part of town,” a homeless man threatened her. After that encounter, she began regularly carrying a firearm under Utah’s Constitutional Carry law.

Coote, who just graduated this spring from the University of Utah, says carrying the gun has given her the confidence to feel safe in public. “It’s been life-changing,” she told RealClearInvestigations (RCI). Although she has never had to draw or fire the weapon, she has faced a threatening individual when she was armed, but stopped the attack by merely letting the man know she was carrying.

Coote is part of a growing trend of strapped Americans. A new survey of 1,000 general election voters conducted last month by McLaughlin & Associates found that almost 30 percent of respondents said they carry a firearm. More specifically, the survey found that 13.2 percent respondents said they carry a firearm all or most of the time, while an additional 16.6 percent said they carry one sometimes or rarely. These results show a 5.5 percent increase in the number of respondents who said they carry firearms since a similar poll was conducted in December 2024.

Both polls were commissioned by the group I lead, the Crime Prevention Research Center, and have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

Since 2021, 13 states, covering 34 percent of the U.S. population, have adopted constitutional carry laws. As a result, 29 states do not require law-abiding citizens to obtain a permit to carry a concealed handgun. A little less than two-thirds of those who are carrying a concealed handgun in these states have a permit.

The survey is the latest evidence challenging claims linking firearms and violent crime. As data show both the number of firearms and the percentage of people carrying them is increasing, preliminary estimates show the U.S. murder rate is likely to hit a record low in 2025—at least 10 percent below the previous record low.

“It doesn’t surprise me that while the country is experiencing record-low murder and violent crime rates, we are also experiencing a record high number of people legally carrying concealed handguns for self-protection,” Alan Gottlieb, the executive vice president and founder of the Second Amendment Foundation, told RCI.

Bradford County, Fla., Sheriff Gordon Smith said lowering crime rates “isn’t rocket science.” He told RCI, “You reduce crime by putting more cops on the street, increasing arrest and conviction rates, and imposing meaningful prison sentences. But you also cut crime by empowering law-abiding citizens to defend themselves and their families through constitutional carry.”

Gun control groups—Everytown, Brady United, and Giffords Law Center—declined repeated requests to respond to the survey data and crime statistics.

Blacks, Hispanics & Women

The CPRC survey also found that politically engaged citizens are more likely to carry firearms. Respondents who identified as general election voters were twice as likely to have concealed handgun permits as other adults.

Blacks and Hispanics also carry at disproportionately high rates. Black people make up 11.0 percent of likely voters but account for 15.9 percent of those who carry all or most of the time. Hispanics are even higher, accounting for 18.8 percent of frequent carriers despite comprising only 11.0 percent of likely voters. By contrast, whites and Asians carry at rates below their shares of likely voters. Whites constitute 72 percent of likely voters but only 62.6 percent of those who carry all or most of the time, while Asians account for 4.0 percent of likely voters but just 2.0 percent of frequent carriers.

Audrey Bodiford, a 5’2” black woman living in Lansing, Michigan, told RCI she owes her life to her handgun and having a concealed handgun permit. On Valentine’s Day in 2022, she said, the over 6-foot-tall man she had been dating “kind of went crazy,” threatened to kill her, and pulled a knife on her. Fearing for her life, she shot him in self-defense.

Because she lives in what she describes as a “not good” neighborhood, this was not the only time she relied on her firearm for protection. In another incident, she said she accidentally let a door slip from her hand while trying to hold it open for a man leaving a store. The man became verbally abusive, followed her, and aggressively closed in on her. She turned slightly so he could see that she was armed. He immediately backed off, ending the confrontation. Asked if carrying has given her more confidence: “I feel more safe, definitely,” she said.

The survey found relatively small differences between men and women. While women make up 52 percent of general election voters, they comprise 45.1 percent of Americans carrying concealed weapons; men are 48 percent of the electorate and 54.9 percent of those who carry all or most of the time. The breakdown for Constitutional Carry states is relatively higher for women, with 47.5 percent of those carrying all/most of the time being women and 52.5 percent men. Constitutional Carry may benefit women who suddenly face threats from a stalker or former partner and often do not feel they can wait the months it takes for officials to approve a permit application.

Research shows that two groups benefit the most from carrying firearms: physically weaker individuals, such as women and the elderly, and those most likely to become crime victims, such as poor blacks living in high-crime urban areas. These groups have also experienced the largest percentage increases in concealed handgun permits over the last decade (2015–2024). During that period, permits for women increased 112 percent faster than permits for men, while permits for blacks increased 284 percent faster than permits for whites.

“A firearm dramatically increases a woman’s ability to defend herself,” Professor Carl Moody, a crime researcher at the College of William & Mary, told RCI. “Without a firearm, a woman is almost always at a significant disadvantage if attacked by a man. With a firearm, she can avoid an unfair fight with an opponent who usually has a size and strength advantage. Almost always, it is only necessary to announce or display the weapon to dissuade the attacker.”

More Guns, Fewer Violent Crimes

After the Supreme Court struck down a New York state law in 2022 which had sharply limited the number of people who could carry concealed weapons, six states, including California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York, were forced to make it easier to get a concealed handgun permit by eliminating arbitrary discretion and establishing objective rules on training and other qualifications. “This dangerous decision will make America a less safe country,” Democratic New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy warned. Those states did, indeed, see an enormous increase in the number of permits issued. In New Jersey, the number of concealed carry permit holders increased from 1,212 in 2022 to 57,245 in 2025. In Hawaii, the total has now gone from zero to 4,000.

Violent crime, however, has fallen in all six states. The murder rate in New Jersey fell from 3.9 per 100,000 people in 2022 to 2.4 in 2024, and the preliminary numbers show it falling to as low as two per 100,000 in 2025. A press release from New Jersey’s attorney general announced a “Historic Low in Gun Violence for 2025.” Some attribute the drop to the increase in permits. “Today, more than 58,000 law-abiding New Jerseyans can exercise their right to carry a firearm. And while some warned this would turn our streets into the Wild West, the reality has been far different,” Republican New Jersey Assemblyman Greg Myhre claimed.

An easier thing to measure is that permit holders are exceptionally law-abiding. States revoke their licenses for firearm-related violations at rates measured in thousandths or even tens of thousandths of a percentage point. Police officers rarely commit crimes, yet concealed handgun permit holders prove even more law-abiding than cops. Permit holders are convicted for firearms offenses at just one-twelfth the rate at which police are convicted of comparable firearm-related crimes.

“The data clearly show that concealed carry permit holders are among the safest and most responsible users of firearms,” David Mustard, a distinguished professor at the University of Georgia who researches extensively on crime, told RCI. Bradford County Sheriff Gordon Smith confirmed that this is his experience with Constitutional Carry: “The data is clear: The vast majority of concealed carriers are among our most responsible residents, not the problem.”

Despite the fears raised by gun-control advocates, over 91 percent of street police officers support concealed handgun laws. Law enforcement professionals understand that self-defense is a key element of public safety, in part because they know they usually arrive only after criminals commit crimes. An overwhelming body of academic research finds that allowing law-abiding citizens to carry concealed handguns reduces crime.

This is especially true for women, who often struggle to defend themselves against much larger and stronger men, who also tend to run faster. While both men and women benefit from carrying a concealed handgun, research shows that each additional woman who carries a concealed handgun reduces the murder rate for women by roughly three to four times more than an additional man carrying a concealed handgun reduces the murder rate for men.

“Too often, women who are being stalked or threatened are told to limit their movements, alter their routines, or rely on a piece of paper to stop someone determined to harm them,” Robyn Sandoval, the president of A Girl & A Gun, told RCI. “Women deserve better than living in fear. By learning to responsibly carry a firearm, they can gain the confidence and means to protect themselves and live their lives without fear.”

“Every day, more law-abiding citizens choose to legally carry firearms because they refuse to be victimized by criminals and thugs,” Brevard County, FL, Sheriff Wayne Ivey told RCI. “Responsible gun owners know that even the best police response times takes minutes, while violent criminals can take a life in seconds!”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 22:35

New Study Exposes How The Left Turned Mental Illness Into A Political Identity

Something researchers have observed for decades is finally crystallizing into a measurable cultural phenomenon. Political conservatives consistently report higher levels of happiness, better mental health, and stronger psychological well-being than their liberal counterparts. A new study published in Political Behavior takes that finding several steps further, arguing that mental illness has begun functioning as its own political identity, and that identity clusters most tightly on the left.

Columbia University's magazine originally flagged the underlying trend back in 2023, reporting that "American adults who identify as politically liberal have long reported lower levels of happiness and psychological well-being than conservatives," Based on the data of four different studies, researchers from the Universities of Florida and Toronto, found an explanation: conservatives tend to exhibit greater personal agency, religiosity, moral clarity, self-worth, and a more optimistic general disposition.

The Political Behavior study was conducted by Prof. Lauren Van De Hey of Utah State University, and the implications of her findings were significant. "I further find that there is an emerging mental health political identity that is most pronounced among younger (Gen Z) and more liberal Americans," she said.

She also noted that "the political predictors and political consequences for the emerging mental health identity differ from those for physical disability and serious physical illness categorization and identification," suggesting that mental health, unlike physical illness, has acquired a distinctly ideological character in American life.

Approximately half of the study participants with mental illness reported that their identity as a person with a mental health condition is "very important or somewhat important" to them. Meanwhile, conservatives are less likely than liberals to categorize anxiety and depression as mental health conditions and seek clinical treatment at lower rates. Van De Hey speculates this may reflect a "personal responsibility ethos: they do not seek help when they think they can resolve the issues on their own." That framing, notably, does not treat the conservative approach as a pathology.

The study concludes that "these findings have far-reaching consequences for mental health advocacy, and the role mental health identity will play in the political sphere - especially as Gen Z matures as a cohort," with conservative and specifically Christian beliefs credited as having a stronger track record for producing happiness and well-being than leftist counterparts.

"It is becoming increasingly clear which ideas do what! Conservative, and specifically Christian, ideas have a much better track record than their leftist counterparts," writes Glenn T. Stanton of Daily Citizen. "This has deep personal and political implications."

The gender dimension of this divide deserves its own examination. Academic literature going back to the 1970s establishes that women generally report worse mental health than men. A separate body of research establishes that conservatives report greater happiness than liberals. Among young liberal women, both trends converge. Last year, the Institute for Family Studies report found that 37% of conservative women report being "completely satisfied" with life, compared to 28% of moderates and just 12% of liberal women. Young conservative women are more than three times as likely as liberal women to report feeling very happy, and IFS found that "liberal women are two to three times more likely to report they are 'not satisfied' with their lives, compared to conservative women."

The loneliness numbers were just as striking. Among women ages 18 to 40, 29% of liberals reported feeling lonely many times a week. Among conservative women, that figure dropped to 11%. The explanatory variables IFS identified were that young conservative women are far more likely to be married, far less likely to be cohabiting, and nearly five times more likely to attend weekly church services.

IFS concluded that closing the happiness gap "will seemingly require not only a change in thinking but also a renewal of young liberal women's connection to America's core institutions - family and faith." That's a direct challenge to a progressive framework that has spent years telling young women that traditional institutions are the source of their suffering rather than the solution.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 22:10

Federal Agents Dismantle Human Smuggling Stash House In Texas

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Border Patrol and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) agents busted a stash house used for human smuggling in El Paso, Texas, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) exclusively told The Epoch Times on Monday.

U.S. Border Patrol agents monitor the southern border outside of San Diego, Calif. on May 27, 2026. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The joint investigation, which resulted in the arrests of 11 illegal immigrant adults and one unaccompanied child found in the house on May 27, highlights the need for strict enforcement efforts at the border to dissuade individuals from entering the country unlawfully through human smugglers, CBP officials said.

"This operation, in partnership with U.S. Border Patrol, reflects our mission to safeguard the homeland and uphold the integrity of our immigration system," HSI El Paso Special Agent in Charge Ryan McRae said. "We remain committed to ensuring the safety and security of El Paso and beyond."

Of the 12 illegal aliens arrested, 10 were from Mexico and two from Guatemala.

The 11 adults were processed and charged with violations of Title 8 of the U.S. Code, CBP said, which encompasses immigration offenses including unlawful entry, unlawful reentry, alien harboring or smuggling, and more.

The unaccompanied minor was "administratively processed," CBP told The Epoch Times.

Following apprehension, an unaccompanied child is transferred into the care and custody of the Office of Refugee Resettlement, which sits under Department of Health and Human Services.

Chief Patrol Agent Jessie Munoz for the El Paso Sector said his agents and agency partners at HSI are making progress in dismantling criminal smuggling organizations in the region.

The Epoch Times exclusively spoke with other top leadership at the U.S.-Mexico border who echoed the same message.

They described the border as more secure than at any other point in American history, yet some vulnerabilities remain that criminal organizations will attempt to exploit, Chief Patrol Agent Justin De La Torre of the San Diego Sector said.

"Our primary focus is to prevent people from illegally entering in the first place, and it is my strong belief that the only way we can do that is if people know if they choose to use the cartels to come to the United States, they will not be successful," De La Torre said.

Every individual who illegally crosses the border, the San Diego Sector chief said, equates to money going into the hands of the cartels, which charge roughly $10,000 per person to be smuggled into the country.

More often than not, an illegal immigrant doesn't have enough money up front to make this payment, De La Torre said. Instead, they have an agreement with the cartels that if they are successfully smuggled in, they will illegally work in the United States and send money back each paycheck.

"It could take them a year, it could take them six years, but they're paying the smuggling organization until that debt is paid off, and that's usually through fear [from the cartels saying] ... 'If you don't, we know where your family lives,'" De La Torre said.

CBP officials told The Epoch Times that they hear countless stories of illegal immigrants alleging they were sexually assaulted, robbed, or beaten by their smugglers.

"If they can't get a group through, they will kidnap people, call their family members for ransom, just to gain some type of profit," De La Torre said about the smuggling organizations.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 21:45

New Radar System Can Detect High-Speed Drones Nearby Ports, Vessels In Extreme Environment

Authored by Prabhat Ranjan Mishra via Interesting Engineering,

A new type of radar to detect drones nearby ports, vessels, harbours, and critical maritime infrastructure has been introduced. Developed by Robin Radar Systems, IRIS OTM at Sea is designed for seamless land-to-sea deployments.

The system can operate effectively in extreme environments thanks to its salt- and corrosion-resistant engineering.ROBIN

The new system is a major expansion of its IRIS On-The-Move (OTM) capability.

The comprehensive update is aimed at strengthening counter-UAS protection for shipping lanes, naval operations, and coastal assets.

Offshore Assets Are Exposed To Low-Cost Aerial Threats

"What we are seeing globally is that the drone threat is no longer confined to the battlefield or to land-based infrastructure. Shipping lanes, ports, harbours and offshore assets are now all exposed to low-cost aerial threats that can disrupt trade, damage infrastructure and threaten civilian safety," said Siete Hamminga, CEO, Robin Radar Systems.

"The Strait of Hormuz has once again demonstrated how vulnerable critical maritime corridors can become during periods of instability. IRIS OTM at Sea is being designed to answer that challenge with a rapidly deployable, software-defined capability that can move seamlessly between land and sea."

IRIS OTM At Sea Will Detect, Track, And Classify Drones

Originally developed to operate from moving land vehicles traveling at speeds exceeding 62 mph (100km/h), IRIS On-The-Move will now be adapted for maritime environments through advanced software enhancements that compensate for sea clutter, vessel movement, and challenging coastal conditions, according to a press release.

Designed to be mounted on vessels, IRIS OTM at Sea will detect, track, and classify drones while travelling at speeds of up to 54 knots, operating effectively in extreme environments thanks to its salt- and corrosion-resistant engineering, resonance tolerance, and EMC-compliant architecture.

Unlike traditional static radars, IRIS is designed to move with the threat itself, providing persistent situational awareness across highly dynamic environments, as per the release.

The company revealed that the radar's software architecture will be updated to filter out heavy sea reflections and environmental clutter to isolate small airborne threats operating close to the waterline, an increasingly important capability as drone incursions continue to evolve across maritime theatres.

Robin Radar Systems highlighted that the maritime update has been shaped directly by operational lessons from ongoing live-fire environments, where the need for flexible, mobile counter-UAS systems capable of protecting dynamic environments has accelerated dramatically. The company's engineering teams reportedly adapted the system specifically to address the increasing use of fixed-wing drones and low-altitude aerial threats around strategic shipping corridors and maritime infrastructure.

"Modern security demands speed and flexibility. Operators need systems that can deploy quickly, integrate easily, and adapt as threats evolve," said Vivien Croes, Chief Technical Officer, Robin Radar Systems.

"What makes this update important is that we are taking a combat-proven radar and extending its capabilities into one of the most operationally complex environments in the world. The future of counter-UAS is not static infrastructure, it is agile, mobile sensing systems capable of protecting people, critical infrastructure and global commerce wherever threats emerge."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 20:55

Which US States Have The Highest GDP Per Capita?

Where you live in the U.S. can make a huge difference in economic output per person.

GDP per capita varies widely across states, from under $60,000 in Mississippi to nearly $280,000 in Washington, D.C.

This chart, produced by Visual Capitalist's Jenna Ross, in partnership with Terzo, breaks down GDP per capita in 2025. 

GDP per Capita by State

Washington, D.C. has the highest GDP per capita. The capital’s economy is concentrated in high-value professional services like consulting, IT, and legal, as well as government spending. 

Its large commuter workforce from outside states also boosts the figure, as many workers contribute to economic output without being counted in the local population.

State 2025 GDP per Capita Washington, D.C. $278k New York $123k Massachusetts $115k Washington $112k Delaware $111k California $108k North Dakota $102k Connecticut $102k Alaska $102k Nebraska $98k Colorado $97k Illinois $95k New Jersey $93k Texas $92k Minnesota $91k Maryland $91k Virginia $90k Wyoming $89k Utah $89k New Hampshire $89k Hawaii $87k South Dakota $86k Nevada $86k Iowa $86k Georgia $82k Ohio $81k Kansas $81k Pennsylvania $81k Tennessee $81k Oregon $80k North Carolina $80k Wisconsin $79k Arizona $78k Florida $78k Indiana $78k Rhode Island $75k Vermont $75k Missouri $75k Louisiana $74k Maine $73k Michigan $72k Montana $72k New Mexico $72k South Carolina $68k Idaho $67k Kentucky $67k Oklahoma $67k Alabama $66k Arkansas $64k West Virginia $62k Mississippi $56k

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau. Figures rounded.

New York takes the second spot as a global financial hub with strong output in other high-value industries, including real estate and professional services. 

Massachusetts and Washington also top the ranks. While Massachusetts drives value through professional services like biotechnology, Washington is home to big tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft.

Resource Economies

Outside of more service-based economies, both North Dakota and Alaska pump out over $100,000 in GDP per capita. 

Both states are driven by natural resources and mining, ranking as the third (North Dakota) and fifth-highest (Alaska) producers of crude oil in America. These states also have some of the lowest populations in the country, driving up output per person.

More recently in 2026, both states have seen monetary benefits from oil transport disruptions and rising prices. North Dakota typically sells crude oil at a discount to benchmark pricing, but has been earning $7 more per barrel above the benchmark. In Alaska, the state recently increased its projected revenue by $0.5 billion as a result of higher oil prices.

Maximizing Value

As economies push to create more value per person, businesses are also focused on getting more from what they have.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 20:30

India's Solar Demand Set For 22% Annual Growth Through 2035

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

India’s solar capacity is set to surge by 22% each year by 2035 as the data center boom will drive increased power consumption, a new report by Nuvama showed on Monday.   

The consultancy estimates that India’s total power demand will rise by 6% every year over the next decade, “driven by economic growth, rising urbanisation, manufacturing expansion and increasing electrification across sectors,” according to the report cited by Indian news outlet ANI.

Solar growth will vastly outpace overall power demand as power-intensive data centers will drive 22% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in solar energy capacity from 2026 to 2035, the report found.

“Our base case suggests green hydrogen and data centre capacity shall add another 251GW solar capacity, while it is 406GW capacity in the bull case scenario,” Nuvama analysts said in the report.

“Given solar capacity expansion in our base case, the share of solar shall rise from 28% in FY26 to 61% by FY35 and to 65% in the bull case,” they added.

India expects to nearly quadruple its solar power capacity and triple wind power-generating assets within ten years, according to the new Generation Adequacy Plan published by the country’s Central Electricity Authority earlier this year.

India projects to have a total of 509 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity installed by the end of the 2035-2036 fiscal year, up from 140 GW installed solar PV capacity as of January 2026.   

“The installed generation capacity projection in 2035-36 shows that the country is moving toward a strong transition to non-fossil energy. Renewable sources, especially solar PV, hydro, and wind, will dominate future capacity, supported by Energy Storage Systems,” according to the policy.

In 2025, India boasted that it was five years ahead of schedule when it achieved its target of having 50% of its installed electricity capacity coming from non-fossil fuel sources.

However, India's electricity grid is expanding at a slower pace than the boom in renewable energy installations, leading to an increased share of clean energy curtailments and threatening to slow the solar and wind boom in the world’s most populous country.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 20:05

How The World Added Decades To Life Expectancy

The average person today can expect to live far longer than someone born in 1960, regardless of where they live.

This chart, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, tracks life expectancy at birth across four World Bank income groups. While high-income countries still have the longest lifespans, the biggest gains have come elsewhere. Upper-middle income countries have added more than three decades to life expectancy, while low-income countries have made substantial progress as well.

The data for this visualization comes from World Bank via FRED. It tracks life expectancy at birth by income group from 1960 to the latest available data (2024).

High-Income Countries Still Lead

High-income countries still have the highest life expectancy, reaching 80.3 years in 2024.

That is up from 68.3 years in 1960, a gain of 12 years. These countries started from a much higher baseline, meaning their gains have been slower but still substantial.

Examples include the U.S., Germany, and Japan.

 

Upper-Middle Income Countries Saw the Fastest Gains

 

Upper-middle income countries posted the largest increase, rising from 41.9 years in 1960 to 76.3 years.

That is a gain of 34.4 years, the fastest improvement of any group in the dataset. This category includes countries such as China, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa.

Much of this improvement coincided with rising incomes, better sanitation, expanded vaccination programs, lower child mortality, and broader access to healthcare. Together, these changes helped push life expectancy in many middle-income countries toward levels once seen only in the world’s wealthiest economies.

The Global Life Expectancy Gap Has Narrowed

In 1960, people in high-income countries lived about 27 years longer than those in low-income countries.

Today, the gap stands at roughly 16 years. While a significant difference remains, low-income countries have added more than 23 years to average life expectancy since 1960. In other words, much of the world’s longevity progress has come from countries that started furthest behind.

However, the remaining gap shows that income, healthcare access, and living conditions continue to shape longevity worldwide.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: Countries With the Most Ultra-Rich Residents in 2026 on Voronoi.

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 19:40

Domesticating AI - It's Not Coming, It's Already Here

Authored by Howard Armitage via New Atlas,

When my neighbor wanted a vision of what his fence could look like, I didn't hesitate to ask ChatGPT to create a mock-up. I took a photo of the fence and asked it to overlay a potted Jasmin espaliered to it, after a couple of tweaks, and all of about one minute later, it gave me this:

AI-generated mock-up created from the author’s original fence photograph
Howard Armitage

During a recent conversation with a diving buddy, he pulled out his phone mid conversation and said "Hey Grok, show me that dive computer we were talking about this morning." And yes, it's $580 worth of gorgeous.

Its translation abilities are spectacular, and occasionally hilarious. It really is the Babel fish. Not that long ago I moved to a bank simply because it supported Apple Pay years before the big players. At that time, paying with just the tap of a wrist always garnered astonishment and commentary. Around the same time, voice assistants started crossing the line from novelty to genuinely useful. Set a timer, make an appointment, play some music. Super!

"Alexa, turn the kitchen light on." Light comes on. "No, turn it off." "There is no device called 'it' to turn off." Oof!

No memory, no context.

Enter Nabu (yes I know, I haven't got round to changing the wakeword name yet). Naby knows it turned the kitchen light on, and knows I was referring to the kitchen light when I said "turn it off." It remembers, it has context, because it's not just a dumb voice assistant anymore, it is plumbed into my local AI.

The big commercial AI platforms can be connected to these systems, but running it locally means the data stays within the boundaries of my house. It won't process that mountain of documents or win that tricky legal case yet, but it can keep track of the state of my home and understand what I mean when I speak naturally.

That's a big deal - because now I don't have to write and memorize tiresome automations for rigid pre-programmed commands, I can converse with Nabu in human and it understands "all the lights" or "just the downstairs aircons."

Only five years ago, running an AI model at home was a ridiculous proposition - you'd need datacenter hardware and a tech-bro budget. Now, it's dramatically cheaper and easier - with consumer GPUs, mini PCs, Ollama and Hugging Face, technically curious people are quietly building surprisingly capable AI systems at home. The GPU that I can hold in my hands doesn't compete with a datacenter the size of several football fields - but for my homelab tinkerings, it's surprisingly capable, and is only becoming more so.

I should probably backtrack a little here - I'm enthusing about Home Assistant, which I've been running for about 12 years - originally on a Raspberry Pi, now in a VM on ProxmoxVE. Sensors and controllers are scattered all over the house, with a dashboard in a browser acting as mission control. Lights automated with timers and presence detectors. Sun elevation adjusts blinds, curtains react to sunrise and sunset, and moisture sensors trigger irrigation on demand. Solar and battery systems respond to dynamic electricity pricing, buying and selling power depending on what the grid is doing.

Home Assistant proclaimed 2023 to be the Year of the Voice and duly launched a prototype Voice Assistant. At launch, its capabilities were limited. Today, it is genuinely good at a variety of tasks, and it's all open source so you can build your own device from very inexpensive hardware, and the software is on GitHub.

Local models - Llama, Gemma, Mistral, Qwen - very much lag behind the giant commercial systems, but for experimentation, home automation, and general day-to-day interaction, they're becoming more and more usable. I personally care about data sovereignty (a huge topic in its own right), so running a local AI grants me a more privacy-conscious workflow, and it still works when the internet doesn't.

Quite how many months of commercial AI subscriptions I could have got for the price of my GPU is a question I'm deliberately avoiding, predominantly for marital reasons. I rather think of myself as a data nerd. All those sensors collecting all that data in a "If this, then that" environment makes for endless tinkering possibilities. And with an AI-powered Nabu gradually replacing Alexa, my office edges ever closer to Tony Stark's lair. We're no longer at "deploying Kubernetes clusters" level of difficulty, but it's still very much a tinkerer’s space rather than a mainstream consumer appliance. Even so, it feels like a taste of where we're heading.

The strange thing is how quickly this all stops feeling strange. Talking naturally to an AI that understands context, remembers previous conversations and controls my house may have garnered astonishment and commentary. Now, it's just another thing sitting quietly in my server rack.

Home Assistant acting as “mission control” for lighting, climate and automation around the author’s home Howard Armitage Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 19:15