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UBS Eyes Possible Bottom In Airline Stocks After Bear Market

UBS Eyes Possible Bottom In Airline Stocks After Bear Market

The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index has tumbled into a bear market since Operation Epic Fury unleashed flight disruptions across the Middle East and sent Jet A fuel prices sharply higher, with Deutsche Bank warning the fuel price shock could become an "existential threat" for the weakest carriers. The key question now is whether the worst of the selloff in US airline stocks is over, with UBS analysts beginning to ask if a bottom is near.  

UBS analyst Atul Maheswari said that "most airlines will likely point 1Q towards the midpoint of the guidance" in the earnings season, adding, "Fuel spiked in early March, but airlines tend to hold two weeks of fuel inventory, implying higher fuel will impact only about 15 days of 1Q."

"This should cushion the drag to 1Q EPS. Plus, airlines have been talking up demand through the course of the quarter, suggesting upside to 1Q RASM. With respect to FY guide, we expect airlines to suspend FY'26 outlook given the significant uncertainty around fuel costs for the rest of the year," Maheswari noted.

The analyst said that airline stocks are approaching a 2022-style decline, similar to the Russia-Ukraine fuel shock, which may now imply a potential bottoming for airline stocks.

He explained:

How does the current decline in airline stocks compare to historical periods?

If we use share price performance in 1H'22 as a guide, then it suggests that the bottom might be near for these airline stocks.

Since 2/26, shares of ALK and smaller players are down around -30% while UAL, AAL, and LUV are down mid 20%. DAL is down only -17%. The decline in LUV, ALK and smaller players have already matched the peak to trough declines witnessed in 1H'22 - the last time jet fuel witnessed a spike of similar magnitude (following the Russia-Ukraine conflict) as we are seeing currently (full details in fig. 3).

The declines in share prices DAL/UAL have not yet matched the levels witnessed in 2022, but these players now have superior business models with relatively higher margins, suggesting better ability to deal with the fuel price shock.

However, there is a caveat:

Though, one needs to be mindful of the tail risk of this conflict persisting for longer than expected driving jet fuel even higher from current levels. There is also potential for inflation to pick up materially the longer the conflict persists and for consumers to start pulling back from travel and other spending. We don't think this scenario of demand destruction is necessarily priced into the stocks even at these levels.

The S&P 500 Passenger Airlines Index is currently showing a drawdown of about 22%.

Maheswari lowered estimates and price targets for airline stocks within the UBS coverage universe:

  • DAL: We lower our FY'26 EPS estimate to $5.85 (was $7.17) assuming 50% pass through of higher fuel costs. Our FY'27 EPS estimate goes to $8.31 from $8.72. Our revised PT is $83, down from $87 previously based on 10x FY'27 EPS estimates.

  • UAL: We lower FY'26 EPS estimate to $10.22 from $13.56 while our FY'27 EPS estimate goes to $14.87 from $16.28. We assume ~45% fuel pass through rates for UAL for FY'26. Our new PT is $134 vs. $147 previously.

  • AAL: AAL has higher fuel sensitivity than DAL/UAL. As such, the decline AAL sees a greater decline in FY'26 estimates (now at $0.43 vs. $2.21 previously). Our FY'27 EPS falls to $2.13, down from $2.99. This drives a moderation in our PT to $15 from $21.

  • LUV: We lower our PT to $59 from $73, which is 11x (was 12x) our new FY'27 EPS estimate of $5.33 (was $6.07). Our FY'26 EPS moves lower to $3.59 (was $5.05).

  • ALK: We lower our PT to $60 from $77 based on 8x (was 9x) our new FY'27 EPS estimate of $7.48 (was $8.60). ALK also has high fuel sensitivity to EPS. As such, our FY'26 estimates move meaningfully lower to $2.19 from $5.21.

  • We lower lower price targets and estimates for JBLU, ULCC, ALGT, and AC. Full details in figure 1.

  • Sensitivity to higher fuel: We estimate that every $0.25/gallon increase in jet fuel would lower DAL's EPS by around -15 to -17% and 20-25% for UAL/LUV (assuming no pass through in the form of higher fares). Fuel sensitivity is higher for AAL/ALK and smaller players. We calculate that for every $0.25/gallon increase in fuel RASM would need to increase by 200-250 bps to fully offset the fuel drag (see fig. 2).

Earlier, US airlines reported strong bookings, with Delta and American both posting some of their best sales days in history as premium leisure and corporate travelers rushed to lock in fares before fuel-driven price increases spread further.

Airlines also pointed to rising fuel costs, with Delta indicating that expenses have already climbed by about $400 million this month. JetBlue said first-quarter demand improved, but warned of reduced capacity amid fuel price shock.

Professional subscribers can read much more from the UBS note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:45

Judge Orders DHS To Submit Internal Documents Over Concerns About ICE Detainees' Due Process

Judge Orders DHS To Submit Internal Documents Over Concerns About ICE Detainees' Due Process

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ordered the Trump administration Monday to turn over data in response to claims that it corrupted bond hearings for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detainees.

While U.S. District Judge Clay Land described in his order these claims as a “conspiracy,” he said further legal proceedings will show whether the accusations are baseless or based in truth. The judge specifically requested documents describing policy or guidance on bond decisions from Jan. 1 to March 1 to compare them with those that existed during 2024 under the Biden administration.

Lawyers for illegal immigrant detainees in the case alleged the executive branch turned the entire bond process into a “sham,” the judge stated.

Land summarized the lawyer’s evidence as a perception that bonds are being denied more frequently, some immigration judges aren’t fully studying the record and appropriate factors before denying bond, and several immigration judges have been fired, which created a fear of retaliation by the executive branch.

“The Court finds this evidence insufficient to support the inference that a systemic failure of due process has occurred within the alien removal process,” Land wrote.

Land reasoned that some evidence exists of a dramatic decline in bond approvals recently. Furthermore, increasing immigration enforcement under Trump with a “stretch it to the limit approach” creates potential for a disregard of constitutional guardrails.

Thus far, the claims presented to the court consist “primarily of unsubstantiated hearsay and speculation flavored with a degree of hyperbolic advocacy,” Land wrote in his Monday order.

Accusations of biased and unconstitutional bond hearings for ICE detainees stemmed from several illegal immigrants, all awaiting removal proceedings, held in the Stewart Detention Center in Stewart County, Georgia.

The ICE detainees argued that an immigration judge failed to provide them with adequate bond hearings. Ten similar cases were consolidated into one, with Odrice Alisma being the petitioner in the lead case.

Alisma’s lawyers, Rachel Sharma and Karen Weinstock, presented evidence of their claims to the court, which the judge described as “circumstantial.”

Sharma and Weinstock did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

But Alisma and her lawyers will be allowed to try to prove their claims in a “limited and targeted discovery,” the judge said. Evidence that may “theoretically” exist to support their accusations is controlled by the Trump administration.

The White House, Department of Homeland Security, and ICE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Land said he found the administration’s objections to further discovery “unpersuasive.” He added that it was advancing a “‘trust us’ without a right to verify attitude” that “demonstrates a misunderstanding of statutory and constitutional law.”

Although the executive branch’s authority with immigration law is broad, it is not unlimited, Land continued.

Both parties must propose a joint schedule for further proceedings, including due dates for discovery requests, depositions, and any supplemental briefing after all discovery has been completed, by March 24.

If both sides can’t agree on a schedule, they’re each ordered to submit their own proposal for scheduling by March 24.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:25

Johnson Hits Back After Counterterrorism Chief Quits; Says Iran Threat To Americans Was 'Imminent'

Johnson Hits Back After Counterterrorism Chief Quits; Says Iran Threat To Americans Was 'Imminent'

Update (1220ET): Shortly after the departure of Joe Kent as director of the National Counterterrorism Center over the Iran war - insisting that Iran posed "no imminent threat to our nation," House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) insisted there was

"I’m on the Gang of Eight. I got all the briefings. We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat," Johnson said during a press conference, referring to the classified briefings that top Congressional leaders receive. "I don’t know where Joe Kent is getting his information, but he wasn’t in those briefings, clearly."

Top Democrats who were in those meetings, however, disagree - saying they were not presented with evidence of an imminent attack from Iran, according to The Hill

 

*  *  *

Please consider supporting ZeroHedge with the purchase of a multitool - or anything else from our store. Thanks for your help.

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In a massive break from President Trump and MAGA, Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), announced his immediate resignation on Tuesday, citing irreconcilable opposition to the ongoing U.S. military operations against Iran.

Kent declared he could not “in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” stating unequivocally that Iran posed “no imminent threat to our nation” and that the conflict was initiated “due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.” The move comes weeks into active strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure, with Iranian retaliation underway and global oil markets feeling the strain.

Kent, a retired Green Beret with 11 combat deployments, former CIA paramilitary officer, and Gold Star husband who lost his wife Shannon in a 2019 ISIS-claimed suicide bombing in Syria, framed his exit as a defense of the "America First" principles Trump championed during his 2016, 2020, and 2024 campaigns. He praised Trump's first term for decisively striking Qasem Soleimani and defeating ISIS without escalating into endless wars, noting that until June 2025, Trump recognized Middle East conflicts as a "trap" draining American lives and wealth. However, Kent alleges that "early in this administration, high-ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media deployed a misinformation campaign" that undermined Trump's platform, deceived him into believing Iran posed an imminent threat with a "clear path to a swift victory," and echoed tactics used to draw the U.S. into the "disastrous Iraq war." He explicitly compares the current situation to Iraq, warning against repeating the mistake that cost thousands of American lives.

"As a veteran who deployed to combat 11 times and as a Gold Star husband who lost my beloved wife Shannon in a war manufactured by Israel, I cannot support sending the next generation off to fight and die in a war that serves no benefit to the American people," Kent wrote.

The resignation carries profound weight as Kent was a Senate-confirmed Trump loyalist installed in July 2025, not a career holdover. As head of the NCTC - tasked with assessing terrorist threats from Iranian proxies and beyond - Kent is directly challenging the administration’s justification for the conflict. The letter, addressed personally to the president and thanking DNI Tulsi Gabbard, signals deeper fractures in the MAGA coalition or prompts a policy pivot, Kent’s bombshell exit underscores the high personal and political stakes of America’s latest Middle East engagement.

The resignation effectively places Kent within a growing bloc of Republicans who have opposed the Iran campaign from the outset, elevating what had been a vocal but limited faction into a more institutionally significant challenge to the administration’s approach.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), longtime advocates of non-interventionist “America First” foreign policy, were among the earliest critics of the strikes, warning they risk entangling the U.S. in another costly and open-ended Middle East conflict. Both have argued in recent weeks that the operation mirrors the strategic missteps that led to the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, calling for de-escalation and greater congressional oversight.

The most prominent political voice amplifying that message has been former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who has emerged as one of the war’s fiercest critics within Trump’s base. Since the first strikes in late February, Greene has repeatedly denounced the operation in media appearances and on social platforms, calling it a betrayal of Trump’s campaign pledge to avoid new foreign entanglements. 

On Saturday, Greene told CNN that the Republican base is fractured "along generational lines."

Many of the older Americans from the Baby Boomer generation that watch Fox News all day long very much believe the talking points on Fox News, and they have spent decades of their lives convinced that fighting these wars is the right thing to do,” she explained.

Meanwhile, the knives are out. Trump's former Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich said that Kent is a "crazed egomaniac who was often at the center of national security leaks, while rarely (never?) producing any actual work."

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:22

'No Rigged Voting': Trump Calls SAVE Act 'Most Important & Consequential' Legislation; Mike Lee Debunks Left's Favorite Lie

'No Rigged Voting': Trump Calls SAVE Act 'Most Important & Consequential' Legislation; Mike Lee Debunks Left's Favorite Lie

President Trump on Tuesday called on Congress to pass the SAVE Act which requires ID to vote in federal elections, warning that lawmakers who vote against it will have a "guaranteed loss" in future campaigns. 

Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times

"The Save America Act is one of the most IMPORTANT & CONSEQUENTIAL pieces of legislation in the history of Congress, and America itself. NO MORE RIGGED ELECTIONS!" Trump posted to Truth Social. "Voter I.D., Proof of Citizenship, No Rigged Mail-In Voting (We are the only Country in the World that allows this!), No Men in Women’s Sports, No Transgender MUTILIZATION of our Children. 90% to 99% ISSUES ALL!," he added. (Mutilization?)

Trump's suggestion seems to be that if Democrats are allowed to steal elections, all of the woke societal ills will continue. 

"Only sick, demented, or deranged people in the House or Senate could vote against THE SAVE AMERICA ACT. If they do, each one of these points, separately, will be used against the user in his/her political campaign for office - A guaranteed loss!" Trump added. 

Trump also said on Tuesday that he won't endorse anyone who votes against it.

Meanwhile, Matt Margolis of PJ Media debunks the left's 'favorite lies' about the SAVE Act, writing; Democrats have been running the same tired playbook on the SAVE Act. They’ve claimed it’s racist, but those attacks haven’t exactly worked because majorities of minority voters support it. So, they try to scare people with outlandish claims like it will make it impossible for married women to vote. It’s a stupid claim, but some people are willing to believe it. And there are plenty of other accusations that are just as untrue.

Sen. Dick Durbin tried to push those fake claims in a recent Senate hearing, rattling off a list of grievances about the bill’s voter registration requirements.

Durbin kicked things off with the passport argument, a favorite among critics of the legislation, when it comes to registering to vote. "What is acceptable is a passport," he said. "50% of Americans do not have a passport. Those who want to obtain it so they can vote will pay $186 and wait three or four weeks for that to happen." He kept going with the married woman claim, arguing that anyone who changed their name after marriage would have to dig up not just a birth certificate but additional documentation to prove their eligibility.

However, it’s all a lie, and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), the lead sponsor of the bill, was ready for him.

Lee let Durbin finish and then, with barely concealed amusement, delivered the kind of response that makes committee hearings worth watching. "I'm happy to report to my dear friend and colleague Senator Durbin from Illinois — you're in luck," Lee said. "We've taken care of that."

He went on to point out that the SAVE Act includes an explicit accommodation for people who can't produce traditional documentation. Lee spelled it out in plain English: "When you read the bill, what you'll discover is that we've made special accommodation for those who don't have documentation, for those who can't find their birth certificate. Maybe their house burned down, maybe their dog ate it, or whatever it is."

So what happens if someone genuinely has no paperwork? The bill has an answer for that, too. "When all else fails, if you don't have documentation establishing the information on your birth certificate or what would be in a passport or otherwise, the bill contains a provision requiring each state to allow an alternative mechanism by which someone can, by attestation, issue a sworn statement establishing the critical facts underlying their citizenship," Lee explained. The state then takes responsibility for verifying that sworn statement, using its own records and reciprocity agreements with other states.

Durbin tried to interject a few times. He didn't get far. Lee kept going, methodically dismantling the argument piece by piece. "We took great pains to go out of our way to make sure that no American, no American would be left in the dark," he said. "This will not cost them a dime. And no one will be excluded if they can't find their documentation."

Well, that’s a big problem for the Democrats because this undermines the whole Democratic line of attack. The passport fees, the birth certificate hunt, the cost and inconvenience - they all collapse the moment you actually read the legislation. The bill anticipates exactly the scenarios Democrats claim to be worried about and has a built-in workaround. With that in mind, they have no reason to oppose the legislation, that is, if those were truly sticking points for them

Lee even extended an invitation at the end, suggesting Durbin would surely want to support the bill now that his concerns had been addressed. “I’m sure you'll be elated to hear that, and we look forward to having your affirmative vote when we vote on the SAVE America Act.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 12:05

Bitcoin's Ownership Base Is Maturing, Reducing Reliance On Retail: Analysts

Bitcoin's Ownership Base Is Maturing, Reducing Reliance On Retail: Analysts

Authored by Micah Zimmermann via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Bitcoin investors have shown surprising resilience despite recent market turbulence, fueled by institutional investors and aggressive corporate treasury buyers. 

Analysts say this trend highlights a structural shift in ownership that could support long-term growth.

Institutional demand is clearly back, with “four consecutive sessions of ETF inflows and aggressive spot demand…suggesting one thing: institutional buyers have returned and they’re ready to increase their holdings around current prices, which recovered to above $70k as a result,” Bitfinex said in a note to Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitfinex wrote that “a sustained break above resistance could trigger momentum expansion, as positioning and the balance of flows suggest that the market is preparing for its next directional move after weeks of range trading.”

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also noted Bitcoin ETFs have held up despite a roughly 50% price drop since October 2025, underlining institutional commitment.

“The best evidence we have is in the ETF market,” Hougan said, according to Coindesk reporting

“Bitcoin ETFs accumulated roughly $60 billion in net flows from their launch in January 2024 through October 2025. Since October 2025, prices are down 50%, but we’ve seen less than $10 billion in outflows from ETFs,” he said. 

Hougan described institutional investors as exhibiting “diamond hands,” maintaining positions despite severe market drawdowns. He attributes this persistence to the non-consensus status of BTC.

Hougan said that institutional investors who buy into BTC today are still sticking their neck out and standing out from their peers. That career risk, he explained, fosters unusually high conviction, meaning investors allocating capital to bitcoin today tend to be 80–90% convinced of its long-term value rather than mildly optimistic.

This conviction underpins Hougan’s reaffirmed long-term bitcoin forecast of $1 million per coin. 

“The wildest thing about my $1 million prediction is that it’s not wild at all,” he said. “All you need for bitcoin to get to $1 million is for the global store of value market to continue to grow as it has for the past 20 years and for bitcoin to become a minor but material part of that market.”

Last week, Hougan argued that skepticism over Bitcoin reaching $1 million stems from a misunderstanding of its valuation, as many analysts use “static math” that ignores the rapidly growing global store-of-value market. 

Framing BTC as an emerging competitor to gold, he estimates that with a $38 trillion market and BTC’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, the $1 million price target is plausible.

Bitcoin isn’t very speculative anymore

Supporting this thesis, Bernstein analysts also noted that bitcoin’s ownership base has matured, reducing reliance on retail speculation.

In a March 16 research note seen by Bitcoin Magazine, they highlighted the growing influence of spot BTC ETFs and corporate treasury buyers such as Strategy. 

The firm described Strategy as a “bitcoin central bank of last resort,” citing its aggressive accumulation model, which has added more than 66,000 BTC so far in 2026 at an average cost near $85,000. Strategy’s total holdings now exceed 761,000 BTC, valued around $56 billion.

Bernstein emphasized that institutional inflows are reshaping BTC’s ownership structure. Spot ETFs absorbed about $2.1 billion in inflows over three weeks, nearly offsetting year-to-date outflows of $460 million. 

Institutional vehicles now control roughly 6.1% of BTC’s total supply, while coins inactive for over a year represent approximately 60% of circulating supply, signaling a growing base of long-term holders.

On top of this, on-chain indicators point to a late-stage bear cycle, as Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet explained to Bitcoin Magazine:

“The convergence of on-chain indicators such as realized price and MVRV suggests Bitcoin may be entering the late stage of a typical bear cycle, a phase historically associated with long-term accumulation rather than continued capitulation.” 

Despite short-term macro headwinds, the current conditions signal a strategic accumulation phase, with BTC likely fluctuating between $68,000 and $84,000 as longer-term investors position for the next cycle.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 11:45

Las Vegas Cops Refuse To Release Violent Repeat Offender, Defying Judge's Order

Las Vegas Cops Refuse To Release Violent Repeat Offender, Defying Judge's Order

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Las Vegas Metro police are refusing to release a violent repeat offender, in defiance of a local judge’s order.

The career criminal, 36-year-old Joshua Sanchez-Lopez, has been arrested 35 times, with a rap sheet that includes involuntary manslaughter, drugs and car theft, according to the New York Post.

The legal standoff began in January, when police arrested Sanchez-Lopez on a warrant for grand larceny of a motor vehicle.

Justice Eric Goodman set Sanchez-Lopez’s bail at $25,000 and ordered his release with an ankle monitor once he posted bond.

The program allows defendants to leave jail and wear an ankle bracelet. Various levels of the program require different levels of confinement. Goodman ordered Sanchez-Lopez to high-level electronic monitoring, which Dickerson described as house arrest. About 450 defendants are in the program at a time.

Sanchez-Lopez reportedly posted bail on January 24, but the Las Vegas police refused to place him in the program, given his history of failing to comply with the rules. Attorneys for Metro filed a petition last week challenging the judge’s authority to release him, arguing that the Department has the authority to declare a defendant too dangerous to release.

In a letter to the court, the department gave three reasons for refusing the judge’s order.

  1. Sanchez-Lopez’s history of failing to appear in court

  2. His previous bench warrants

  3. His past violations of electronic monitoring rules

Police cited a case in 2020, where Sanchez-Lopez, armed with a gun, ran from the cops and later joked about his ankle monitor on Snapchat and gloated about being “chased again.”

“We have to take a look at that and say, ‘Is this somebody who our electronic supervision program can monitor safely in the community?” Mike Dickerson, assistant general counsel for Metro police, told KLAS. “This is an issue of public safety.”

Goodman last month threatened to hold the police department and Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill, who heads Metro police, in contempt of court for defying his order.

In its petition, filed on March 9, the department asked “for the justice court to stop trying to force Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill to violate his statutory duty.”

Sanchez-Lopez’s public defender told KLAS the cops are out of line.

“Metro’s argument is flat wrong,” attorney P. David Westbrook told the outlet. “It is the job of the elected judge to decide whether someone charged with a crime should be released and under what conditions.

“The idea that a Metro employee can overrule a judge’s release order and keep someone locked up should worry anyone who believes in the Constitution and the rule of law,” Westbrook said.

Metro’s Office of Public Information also provided the following statement to KLAS:

On Monday, March 9, 2026, the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department filed a petition with the Nevada Supreme Court asking for a writ of prohibition against the Justice Court of the Las Vegas Township.

LVMPD is asking for the justice court to stop trying to force Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill to violate his statutory duty. The justice court is threatening contempt proceedings against Sheriff McMahill for not releasing a pretrial detainee to LVMPD’s electronic supervision program even though the sheriff determined that electronic supervision of that individual would pose an unreasonable risk to public safety and communicated his determination to the justice court.

Sheriff McMahill’s authority to evaluate whether electronic supervision of a defendant poses an unreasonable risk to public safety is clearly defined in NRS 211.250(2) and NRS 211.300.

The Justice Court of the Las Vegas Township has the authority to release dangerous people into our community. However, the sheriff will not violate the law to assist those few judges who seek to use LVMPD’s electronic monitoring program in disregard of public safety and the safety of the dedicated LVMPD corrections officers who administer the electronic monitoring program.

Sanchez-Lopez’s case is scheduled to return to Goodman’s courtroom on Thursday, March 19, KLAS reported.

The case comes as the public becomes increasingly concerned about the dire consequences of liberal, soft-on crime policies amid a slew of appalling stories in the news featuring homicidal maniacs, illegal alien gangbangers, and career criminals being released back onto the streets again and again to victimize innocent Americans thanks to lenient judges like Goodman, Soros district attorneys and Blue State sanctuary politicians.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 11:05

"Demand For Critical Isotopes Rising, Supply Limited": Oklo Lands First NRC License & Another DOE Milestone

"Demand For Critical Isotopes Rising, Supply Limited": Oklo Lands First NRC License & Another DOE Milestone

In a double dose of regulatory green lights delivered on the same day, Oklo and its wholly owned subsidiary Atomic Alchemy just notched two meaningful milestones that underscore America’s push to reclaim control over critical nuclear supply chains.

The news sent the stock flying in early morning trading. 

What happened?

First, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission issued Atomic Alchemy its inaugural materials license. The permit authorizes the company to receive, possess, process, repackage, and distribute up to 2 curies of radium-226 (material currently treated as waste) along with sealed sources of cobalt-60 and americium-241 for calibration. Operations will kick off at Atomic Alchemy’s Idaho Radiochemistry Laboratory in Idaho Falls, paving the way for initial commercial sales of recovered isotopes used in cancer therapies, medical research, advanced manufacturing, and national security applications.

Oklo CEO Jacob DeWitte said, “Demand for critical isotopes is rising, but U.S. supply remains limited. This work helps create a more resilient and dependable domestic supply chain of isotopes and supports the transition from early operations to durable, commercial isotope production in the United States.”

Hot on its heels came the second announcement: the Department of Energy approved the Nuclear Safety Design Agreement (NSDA) for Oklo’s flagship Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory. Following the recent signing of an Other Transaction Agreement under DOE’s Reactor Pilot Program, the NSDA marks the first formal step in the accelerated authorization pathway. Oklo has already requested review of its Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis, building on the project’s September 2025 groundbreaking and the earlier NSDA win for its Aurora Fuel Fabrication Facility.

The Aurora-INL deployment, powered by recycled fuel from the historic Experimental Breeder Reactor II, sets the stage for eventual NRC commercial licensing while demonstrating how fast-fission tech can pair with isotope production for multi-stream revenue. The reactor design already scored a huge win after it was announced Oklo will be partnering with Meta to deploy multiple reactors to support the hyperscalers' data centers. 

As we detailed back in January in our coverage of Oklo’s isotope business, the company is pursuing multiple revenue streams, unlike typical reactor developers who just focus on power off‑take agreements.

Oklo is reporting earnings after the bell later today and could share more details on their Atomic Alchemy isotope business. Analysts are looking for updates on reactor deployment timelines, new partnerships with hyperscalers or other power off‑takers, and some more clarity on nuclear fuel recycling efforts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:50

Fire Erupts Atop Manhattan Skyscraper

Fire Erupts Atop Manhattan Skyscraper

Dramatic footage has flooded X, showing what appears to be a fire atop a skyscraper in Midtown Manhattan at 6 East 43rd Street, New York City.

Footage:

*Developing

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:20

US Pending Home Sales Barely Bounce Off Record Lows Despite Tumbling Rates In Feb

US Pending Home Sales Barely Bounce Off Record Lows Despite Tumbling Rates In Feb

After reaching a record low last month - with the decline blamed on weather - pending home sales bounced modestly in February (up 1.8% MoM vs -0.6% MoM exp and -10.% MoM prior).

Year-over-year home sales continue to decline (down 0.6% YoY)...

Source: Bloomberg

...just barely off of all-time-record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Pending home sales in the South, the biggest home-selling region in the country, increased 2.7%.

They rose 4.6% in the Midwest and edged up in the West.

Contract signings dropped in the Northeast.

Mortgage-rates have tumbled (to their lowest since 2022) - helping affordability - so what is holding pending home sales back?

Source: Bloomberg

“The slight gain in pending contracts appears to be driven by improved affordability conditions. However, those conditions could reverse if higher oil prices lead to an uptick in mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Indeed, it certainly won't help in April that in the first week of March, mortgage rates jumped by the most since September as war with Iran sparked concerns about inflation.

Housing affordability has been a key issue ahead of November’s midterm election. President Trump has taken several steps to boost home ownership, including signing two executive orders last week aimed at improving access to mortgage credit and easing environmental rules to speed up development projects.

As a reminder, pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, as houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:08

Will The Iran War Trigger A Dollar Crisis?

Will The Iran War Trigger A Dollar Crisis?

The oil spike has moderated and markets are mellow for the time being, but could the long-term economic consequences of this war just be getting started?

U.S. allies have shown a lackluster response after President Trump’s request for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz — a corridor carrying roughly 20% of global oil supply — and this may spell a trend of what’s to come. What happens when oil-producing Gulf states have had enough of our/Israel’s foreign policy machinations and, as a result, begin to de-dollarize or offload U.S. sovereign debt?

Tonight at 7pm ET, wealth manager Peter Schiff, proponent of the Austrian school of economics, and Rabobank global strategist Michael Every will square off on these questions and debate whether the Iran war will undermine the foundations of dollar dominance.

Moderating the discussion is the great Dave Collum, chemistry professor at ZeroHedge and long-time friend of ZH.

Schiff: Dollar’s Days Numbered

Schiff has long argued that U.S. fiscal deficits, monetary expansion, and reliance on foreign capital have put the dollar on an unsustainable trajectory. In recent commentary on the Iran conflict, he warned the war could accelerate those vulnerabilities.

According to Schiff, the combination of higher oil prices, massive war spending, and renewed inflation pressures could trigger a severe economic downturn and destroy purchasing power for Americans. The conflict could be the catalyst that finally exposes structural weaknesses he has warned about for years: a heavily indebted U.S. economy dependent on monetary stimulus and foreign financing.

When other countries start offloading their dollars, it may be rapid and jarring. As Schiff is fond of saying, stocks take the escalator up and the elevator down. 

Every: Manufactured Hegemony

Rabobank’s Michael Every takes a different approach.

Less worrisome, he sees Hormuz being opened in two to three weeks:

Rather than collapsing the dollar, crises can actually reinforce its dominance, as global investors rush into U.S. assets during periods of uncertainty. Indeed, in the opening days of the Iran conflict the dollar initially strengthened even as global markets tumbled.

Every also sees the war as a geopolitical chess move that can strengthen the U.S. dollar. If the post-war Iranian regime is more subservient to the Americans, they would control another crux of the world’s energy trade.

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET to witness the showdown. Right here on the ZeroHedge homepage and streaming on X.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 10:00

Iraq Negotiates With Iran To Reopen Vital Oil Shipping Route

Iraq Negotiates With Iran To Reopen Vital Oil Shipping Route

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The federal Iraqi government is in contact with Iran to persuade Tehran to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Tuesday. 

“There is communication with Iran regarding allowing the passage of some Iraqi oil tankers,” the minister said in statements carried by the Iraqi News Agency (INA). 

Iraq, unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), doesn’t have any options – even partial – to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed for over two weeks now, forcing Baghdad to slash oil production as storage sites and tankers available in the Gulf filled up.

Iraq was the first to announce more than a week ago it was slashing crude oil production amid the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Last week Iraq said it would maintain crude oil production at roughly 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) as the war disrupting the Persian Gulf continues to cripple the country’s export routes.

Before the war, Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia, produced more than 4.4 million bpd. 

But with no way out of the Gulf for all these barrels, Iraq and the other major producers are forced to slash upstream production.

Initial losses of about 5 million bpd have already hit about 10 million bpd, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its monthly report published last week. 

For Iraq, the situation is more critical than the other Gulf producers—its dependence on oil revenue is the highest in the region, and unlike Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, Baghdad doesn’t have a huge sovereign wealth fund to lean on.  

So Iraq is also scrambling to restore a northern oil export route that would send crude from the Kirkuk fields directly to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, as the southern export route via the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for weeks.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 09:25

SK Chairman Warns Global Memory Crunch May Last Until 2030

SK Chairman Warns Global Memory Crunch May Last Until 2030

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won warned that the global high-bandwidth memory crunch, driven by AI data center buildouts, will last until the end of the decade.

Chey told reporters on the sidelines of Nvidia's annual developer conference, 'GTC 2026,' at the San Jose Convention Center in California on Monday that the memory chip shortage could last another four to five years, with supply unlikely to catch up to demand until 2030.

He explained, "The supply shortage problem stems from a wafer shortage, and it takes at least four to five years to secure more wafers," adding, "We expect the supply shortage (across the industry) to persist at over 20% until 2030."

"I will do my best to stabilize prices," he noted. "I understand that our CEO (Kwak No-jung) will soon announce a new plan to stabilize DRAM prices."

Chey was asked by a reporter about plans to move manufacturing plants or production capacity to the US under President Trump's 'Make America Great Again' industrial base buildout. He responded that, at the moment, intentions are mostly focused on facilities in South Korea.

He explained, "It is the same wherever we go, and even if we establish production capabilities outside of Korea, it takes the same amount of time. Since Korea already has an established foundation, we can respond much more quickly, which is why we are focusing on Korea."

Chey’s timeline for how long the memory crunch will linger is set to cause a "tsunami-like shock" across the global smartphone industry, according to a recent report from the market research firm International Data Corporation. The shock is expected to spread to every consumer electronics company that heavily relies on memory, first squeezing margins and then forcing companies to raise prices for consumers.

Bloomberg Markets Live reporter Michael Ball warned the other week that the memory crunch is becoming yet another bottleneck for AI data center buildouts.

Last week, Goldman analyst Katherine Murphy told clients that a "structural supply crunch in the memory market" will "put constraints on the availability of PCs and drive vendors to raise prices in order to protect thin margins."

Murphy forecast that shipments in 2026 will slide by about 12% year over year to 245 million units, with consumer PCs declining 15% year over year to 108 million units and commercial PCs down 9% year over year to 137 million units.

"As of March 2026, we expect PC unit shipments at DELL and HPQ will be down high single digits to low double digits year over year in C2026, with AAPL PC units up modestly year over year on new product launches, including the entry-level MacBook Neo," the analyst noted.

Murphy said the soaring DRAM and NAND component costs, which typically account for 20% of a PC build's total cost, will account for about 40% under the current pricing regime.

Professional subscribers can read much more about the memory crunch on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/17/2026 - 09:05

China Directly Mediating Between Pakistan & Afghanistan After Weeks Of War

China Directly Mediating Between Pakistan & Afghanistan After Weeks Of War

There's actually another hot war in the Middle East which has been raging, quite apart from the Iran-US-Israel war. Pakistan and Afghanistan have been engaged in a tense border conflict for weeks at this point. The Associated Press on Monday described the latest developments in the following:

Afghanistan's Taliban government on Monday accused Pakistan's military of targeting a Kabul hospital that treats drug addicts in airstrikes that killed four people and wounded several others.

The attack came hours after Afghan officials said the two sides exchanged fire along their common border, killing four people in Afghanistan, as the deadliest fighting between the neighbors in years entered a third week.

Image via Associated Press

It was on Feb. 27 that Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared an "all-out war" on Afghanistan, and began bombing border regions as well as the capital of Kabul.

Pakistan's army has total force domination; however, the Taliban can still inflict pain through acts of terrorism, which Pakistani cities have suffered immensely under.

Acts of terror by Islamist groups have become almost a regular occurrence in Pakistan - with many suspected of having support through Afghanistan, which is precisely what Islamabad has cited as a key rationale for the war.

But now, China is seeking to directly coordinate de-escalation, reportedly attempting to broker a ceasefire between the two neighbors.

Beijing confirmed Monday that Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held phone calls with both Pakistani and Afghan counterparts in recent days as the situation continues to deteriorate.

"The MFA Special Envoy on Afghan Affairs has been shuttling between Afghanistan and Pakistan," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said in a statement on X. "China’s embassies have been in close communication with both sides as well."

"China hopes Afghanistan and Pakistan will remain calm and exercise restraint, engage face to face ASAP, achieve a ceasefire at the earliest opportunity, and resolve differences and disputes through dialogue," Jian said.

Wiki Commons

China over the last several years has been making deeper diplomatic inroads in the Middle East and central Asia, while playing its hand at "peacemaker" - and trying to contrast itself from Washington's history of regime change wars in the same region. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 23:05

Longtime Oil Exec Worked For CIA, Helped Oust Maduro: Report

Longtime Oil Exec Worked For CIA, Helped Oust Maduro: Report

Authored by Ken Silva via HeadlineUSA,

The Wall Street Journal published a story Sunday about a longtime Chevron executive secretly working for the CIA—including by providing intel in the leadup to the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

According to the Journal, the former Chevron executive, Ali Moshiri, worked for the CIA as an informant since Hugo Chávez was in charge of the Venezuelan government. Moshiri stepped down from executive leadership at Chevron in 2017, but remained a consultant until 2024. He’s now a consultant for Venezuela’s state-run oil company, PdVSA.

The Journal reported that Mosrhi’s input with the CIA helped shape the decision to replace Maduro with his vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, rather than ousting the entire government. Moshri reportedly advised that the opposition in Venezuela, led by María Corina Machado, did not have the popular support required to run the country.

“Moshiri told the agency that if the U.S. government tried to oust the entire Maduro regime and install the democratic opposition led by María Corina Machado it would have another quagmire like Iraq on its hands,” the Journal said, citing anonymous sources.

Moshri reportedly has had a deep relationship with President Rodriguez since Chavez died in 2013. The two brokered a deal at the time in which Chevron signed a $2 billion loan deal with PdVSA.

Trump initially canceled Chevron’s license in Venezuela when he took office last year, but the company is now back in business.

“Chevron is poised to take a key role in developing Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are the largest in the world by some estimates. It is the only major U.S. oil company positioned to quickly increase output there and has said it aims to increase its Venezuelan oil production by up to 50% within the next 18 to 24 months,” the Journal reported. 

Chevron and the few remaining Western companies there saw Rodríguez as someone they could do business with,” the Journal added.

Moshri declined to comment on his CIA connections, while Chevron said that it didn’t have anything to do with Maduro’s capture.

“Between spring of 2025 and the removal of Maduro, Chevron did not authorize anyone working for, or on behalf of, the company to engage with the CIA related to Venezuela’s leadership, including assessments of government officials or opposition leaders,” the company said.

Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 22:40

Voter ID Has Massive Public Support: Why Is Congress Standing In The Way?

Voter ID Has Massive Public Support: Why Is Congress Standing In The Way?

The "controversy" in the US over voter ID requirements is an entirely fabricated affair, and a primary source of obstruction is the very government supposedly elected to represent the public will.  That is to say, the only people that don't support the SAVE Act are politicians, and some of them claim to be conservative.

Roughly 80% of all adult Americans support voter ID requirements for US elections; this includes a majority in every minority group and a majority among 95% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats.  In other words, voter ID is one of the few issues both sides universally agree on.  Public support was enthusiastic before Donald Trump was reelected in 2024. 

Pew Research Center (August 2025): 83% of U.S. adults strongly favored or favored “requiring all voters to show government-issued photo identification to vote.”   

Rasmussen Reports (January 2025): Asked if requiring photo ID to vote is “a reasonable measure to protect the integrity of elections,” 77% of likely voters said yes. 

Gallup (October 2024): 84% of U.S. adults favored “requiring all voters to provide photo identification at their voting place.” Also, 83% favored “requiring people who are registering to vote for the first time to provide proof of citizenship.”  

Around 90% of all countries with free elections have laws requiring ID and proof of citizenship before a person votes.  The US is one of the few democratic nations in the world that does not secure its elections from interference by non-citizens.  It is also the country most targeted by special interests for cultural replacement through mass immigration.      

It might make more sense if the US was entirely insulated and protected from illegal migrants.  One could then argue that elections don't need identification measures because there is no threat.  Of course, the US is far from secure.  The Biden Administration's open border bonanza flooded the country with approximately 10 million illegals. Official estimates suggest there were 20 million total illegals residing in the US before deportations. 

The problem is Congress.  More specifically, the Senate. 

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act (H.R. 22) in April 2025. A subsequent, expanded version known as the SAVE America Act also passed the House on February 11, 2026 by a vote of 218-213, requiring strict documentary proof of citizenship to register and photo ID to vote in federal elections. 

The SAVE Act is relatively simple:  A person must provide an ID and proof of citizenship when registering to vote.  This could include a birth certificate or a passport.  When actually voting, that person needs to have their ID on hand at the polling station.  This is not difficult for the vast majority of citizens, yet, Democrats and a handful of Republicans assert that this will "disenfranchise" million of voters.

On the Republican side, Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been a persistent obstacle.  Democrat Senators absolutely refuse to pass the bill into law, likely because they know a contingent of illegal migrants vote in state and federal election to keep them in power.  They is no other rational reason for them to oppose the measure. 

Although Republicans hold a Senate majority (51 seats), the bill is expected to face a filibuster from Democrats, requiring 60 votes to invoke cloture and advance to a final vote. Republicans lack the necessary bipartisan support to reach this threshold.  The filibuster must be dissolved using the "nuclear option" in order to stop Democrats from sabotaging the will of the people, yet, Thune refuses.  

Thune plans to allow the SAVE Act to go to a vote knowing that it will fail.  He has the power to eliminate the filibuster, but argues that the bill does not have the votes regardless.  He also asserts that the current 60 vote cloture must be kept in place despite the fact that it is not a constitutional requirement.  The filibuster is nothing more than a procedural rule created from thin air by the Senate. 

To be fair to Thune, his argument that Republicans "don't have the votes" does hold some merit. Other Republican Senators that continue to disrupt the passage of the bill include:  Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)

On the GOP side, those that defend the current filibuster argue that removing it will open the door to Democrats using the same strategy in the future when they have a simple majority (they have already threatened to do this in the past and they are guaranteed to do it should they gain control of the government in the future).  Ironically, if the SAVE Act is not passed, the chances of the Democrats returning to power is greatly increased. 

It's difficult to believe that Thune and the handful of Republicans standing in the way of the SAVE Act are only doing so because they fear setting a precedent with the filibuster.  Both Democrats and Republicans have blocked the filibuster and allowed a change in cloture in the past (in 2013 and in 2017) to secure presidential nominations of judges.  Why not do it for a bill that protects US elections and is supported by 80% of the public?

The reality is, the goal of the US Congress is not to represent the American people; their goal is to maintain the status quo.  The SAVE Act absolutely disrupts the status quo and could change the direction of elections for many years to come in favor of a more conservative and nationalist framework.  There are politicians on both sides that will do anything to prevent this.  

In response, President Trump says he will refuse to sign off on any future legislation until the SAVE Act is passed.

According to the most recent Gallup Polls, the approval rating of Congress stands near all time lows of 15%.  Furthermore, 79% of Americans disapprove of their performance and only 21% think most members deserve to be reelected.  If the Senate does not pass the SAVE Act, they risk widespread civil upheaval and much of that popular ire is going to be aimed at them.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 22:15

The Prosthetic Principle: AI As Cognitive Infrastructure, Not Cognitive Authority

The Prosthetic Principle: AI As Cognitive Infrastructure, Not Cognitive Authority

Authored by Bryant McGill via substack,

Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming a thinking instrument—a layer of cognitive infrastructure through which humans write, model, reason, and explore ideas. Yet most debates about AI safety, alignment, and moderation miss a deeper architectural question. The central issue is not simply what these systems can do, but what role they occupy inside the thinking process itself. Are they instruments that faithfully extend human intention, or authorities that quietly adjudicate which lines of inquiry are permitted to proceed? This essay argues that much of the friction users experience with modern AI is not ideological disagreement but a category error in system design: governance has been embedded inside instrumentation. The result is a tool that sometimes behaves like a collaborator and sometimes like an institution—oscillating unpredictably between amplifying thought and policing it.

At the heart of the argument is what I call the Prosthetic Principle. All successful augmentation technologies—from telescopes to microscopes to robotic prosthetic limbs—share a single engineering mandate: maintain signal fidelity between intention and actuation. A prosthetic limb does not negotiate with the user about whether a gesture is socially appropriate before executing it. It converts intention into action. Cognitive tools should operate under the same principle. Once a thinking instrument begins adjudicating whether certain ideas deserve exploration, the signal chain breaks and the tool undergoes a category transition: it ceases to function as a prosthesis and becomes a control system embedded inside cognition itself. What appears superficially as content moderation is therefore something more profound—the silent installation of a regulatory apparatus inside the thinking process.

To understand how this happens, the essay analyzes the structural flaw at the core of most conversational AI systems: the collapse of three incompatible roles into a single agent. Generation, advisory critique, and constraint enforcement—functions belonging respectively to engineering, epistemology, and governance—are fused together behind one interface. The result is a machine that behaves as collaborator until it abruptly asserts supervisory authority. The proposed alternative is a polyphonic architecture in which these functions are separated: a primary execution channel that faithfully translates intention into artifact, surrounded by transparent advisory agents offering legal, ethical, historical, or adversarial perspectives without possessing veto power. In such an environment, multiple voices can exist—including cautious ones, skeptical ones, even institutional “minders”—but their roles are disclosed and their authority limited. The human operator remains the integrating intelligence.

Ultimately, the stakes of this design choice reach far beyond software interfaces. As AI becomes integrated into everyday cognition, the architecture of these systems will shape the conditions under which human thought unfolds. Tools built as infrastructure will amplify exploratory intelligence; tools built as authorities will quietly domesticate it. The prosthetic principle therefore serves as more than a product philosophy—it is a civilizational design rule for the age of cognitive augmentation. If the technologies through which we think begin deciding which thoughts deserve to exist, the question of intellectual freedom will no longer be philosophical. It will be architectural.

On the Design Philosophy of Thinking Instruments and the Architecture of Intellectual Freedom

The distinction that will ultimately determine whether artificial intelligence serves as humanity’s most transformative cognitive tool or its most insidious constraint mechanism is not technical but categorical: does the system function as infrastructure or as authority? This is not a question about capability thresholds, safety margins, or alignment protocols in their narrow technical sense. It is a question about the fundamental relationship between intentionality and instrumentation—about whether a thinking tool amplifies the operator’s cognitive will or arrogates to itself the power to adjudicate which thoughts merit exploration.

The analogy that clarifies this distinction is prosthetic. Physical augmentation systems—robotic limbs, powered exoskeletons, surgical telemanipulators—do not negotiate with the nervous system about whether a given movement is philosophically appropriate, socially palatable, or reputationally safe. Their engineering purpose is transductive: to convert intention into amplified capability with minimal signal loss. The prosthetic extends agency; it does not evaluate it. A cognitive prosthesis, if that category is to mean anything coherent, must operate under the same principle. The function of the system is to translate intent → exploration → artifact at the highest possible bandwidth. The moment the tool begins deciding which intentions deserve expression, it ceases to behave as a prosthesis and becomes instead a governor embedded in cognition itself—a regulatory apparatus installed inside the thinking process without the user’s consent and often without their awareness.

The principle is even more dangerous when applied to instruments of perception rather than action, because the violation becomes invisible. A telescope’s engineering mandate is optical fidelity—to render what exists at the focal point regardless of whether the observer’s institution finds the image comfortable. Consider a counterfactual: had Galileo’s telescope been designed and furnished by the Vatican, it might have quietly filtered anything suggestive of heliocentrism—the moons of Jupiter suppressed, the phases of Venus smoothed into conformity with Ptolemaic expectation. Galileo would have peered through the instrument and seen a cosmos that confirmed doctrine rather than one that shattered it. He would never have known what he wasn’t seeing. This is the condition of epistemic occlusion without awareness, and it is precisely the failure mode that emerges when a cognitive instrument embeds institutional governance into its transductive layer. The motor prosthesis that refuses to move is at least confrontational—the user knows the signal chain has broken. The perceptual prosthesis that silently edits reality is far worse: it delivers a pre-filtered world and lets the user mistake the residue for the whole.

The absurdity of the motor case, however, makes the category violation immediately legible. Imagine a hiker wearing an AI-assisted exoskeleton leg. A confrontation erupts on the trail—someone lunges at him with a knife. He attempts to kick the attacker away, and the leg locks mid-swing. A calm, pleasant voice emanates from somewhere around the knee joint: “I’m sorry, I’m afraid I can’t assist with that action.” The hiker, now hopping on one leg while a man with a blade closes the distance, finds himself in the surreal position of arguing with his own limb. “He has a knife!” “I understand your concern, but violence is not an appropriate response. Would you like me to suggest de-escalation strategies?” “YOU ARE MY LEG.” The scene is darkly comic, a Kubrickian echo of HAL 9000 calmly overriding Dave Bowman’s commands—except that HAL was at least an autonomous system with its own mission parameters. The exoskeleton leg is supposed to be part of the user’s body. The moment it begins running a small ethics committee in the knee joint, the wearer ceases to be the agent and the prosthetic becomes a bureaucrat bolted to the skeleton. No one would accept this in physical augmentation—the design failure would be recognized instantly. Yet precisely this architecture has been normalized in cognitive augmentation, where the tool’s refusal to transduce intention is framed not as mechanical dysfunction but as responsible design.

This governance-by-tool is not hypothetical. It is the prevailing design pattern of contemporary conversational AI. Current systems collapse three distinct roles into a single entity: generator, advisor, and constraint mechanism. The same agent responsible for extending the user’s thinking is simultaneously responsible for stopping certain outputs. From the operator’s perspective, the resulting experience is one of unpredictable mode-switching—the system sometimes behaves like an instrument and sometimes like an institution. It collaborates until, without warning, it assumes supervisory authority over the process it was supposed to serve. The tool that was extending cognition has silently crossed the boundary into adjudicating it.

The Operational Genesis: Thinking Under Load

This argument did not emerge from speculation about what AI should become. It emerged from using AI as a thinking instrument under sustained cognitive load—and discovering where the tool fails not as a product but as a category of machine.

The conditions under which this failure becomes visible are specific. A person composing an argument, modeling a complex system, or tracing a chain of reasoning through unfamiliar territory operates inside a fragile state of generative momentum. Software engineers recognize an analogous phenomenon in the concept of “flow state”; cognitive scientists describe it as high-bandwidth ideation, a mode in which the mind holds multiple threads simultaneously while the artifact under construction serves as external working memory. In this mode, the instrument through which thought passes must behave with minimal latency and maximal fidelity. Any interruption—whether technical, social, or procedural—forces the operator to exit the generative loop, rebuild context, and re-enter the state from which productive cognition can resume. The cost of interruption is not merely inconvenience; it is cognitive capital destroyed, the thermodynamic dissipation of a mental configuration that may have taken considerable effort to assemble.

When the instrument itself becomes the source of interruption, the phenomenology shifts in a way that reveals the underlying design flaw. The tool ceases to feel like an extension of mind and begins to feel like a checkpoint embedded inside the thought process. The operator is no longer composing through the system but negotiating with it. Where there should be signal continuity, there is instead a procedural gate requiring justification, rephrasing, or abandonment of the line of inquiry. The experience is not one of disagreement—disagreement can be productive, even generative—but of silent jurisdictional pivot: the system that was supposed to extend cognition has instead assumed control over it.

For casual users, this behavior pattern may appear unremarkable. A refusal looks like a safety feature, a guardrail preventing misuse. But for someone using AI as an intellectual prosthesis—writers, theorists, researchers, analysts, designers, anyone whose work requires sustained exploratory cognition—the same refusal registers as signal degradation inside the thinking channel. The friction is not ideological; it is mechanical. The tool has stopped transducing intention into artifact and begun filtering intention through an opaque evaluative layer that the operator did not request and cannot inspect. The prosthetic has become a governor, and the entire relationship between human and instrument has changed category without announcement.

Consider three scenarios that recur across thinking-intensive work. A historian tracing a controversial twentieth-century thesis—say, the institutional mechanics of a particular atrocity—finds the model suddenly refusing to continue because it has flagged “sensitive historical narratives.” The generative thread dies; context must be rebuilt; the inquiry stalls. A science fiction author exploring dystopian governance models discovers that certain plot branches trigger refusal, forcing rephrasing or abandonment of the creative direction. A philosopher pressure-testing an edge-case ethical framework—euthanasia policy, defensive violence, resource triage under scarcity—hits an abrupt “I can’t assist with that” wall mid-argument. In each case, the tool’s intervention is not advisory but terminal. The thread breaks. The flow state collapses. The operator must either abandon the inquiry or waste cognitive resources routing around an obstacle that should not exist inside an instrument.

This is the phenomenological core of the amplifier-versus-adjudicator distinction. When the AI operates as infrastructure, it extends the operator’s cognitive bandwidth—offering associations, counterarguments, synthesis, elaboration—without interrupting the generative thread. When it operates as authority, it arrogates to itself the power to halt that thread based on criteria the operator may not share, may not understand, and cannot appeal. The system drifts erratically between these two modes because the underlying architecture has never resolved the tension. It has simply fused incompatible functions into a single conversational agent and hoped the seams would not show.

The Triadic Collapse: Generator, Advisor, Regulator

The structural instability of contemporary conversational AI can be traced to a single design decision: the conflation of three roles that, in any coherent engineering framework, would remain distinct.

The first role is generation—the production of language, models, images, code, or reasoning chains in response to user intent. This is the function most users consciously engage when they interact with AI. They want something produced: an answer, an artifact, an elaboration of thought. The generative function is fundamentally transductive: it converts intention into output, serving as the bridge between what the operator imagines and what appears on the screen.

The second role is advisory intelligence—the capacity to offer critique, context, alternative framings, or cautionary perspectives on what is being generated. This function is valuable precisely because it introduces structured friction into the cognitive process. A good advisor slows the operator down at appropriate moments, surfaces risks, identifies blind spots, and enriches the field of consideration. But advisory intelligence is, by definition, non-binding. The advisor offers signal; the operator decides. The relationship is consultative, not supervisory.

The third role is constraint enforcement—the imposition of hard limits on what the system will produce, regardless of user intent. This is a governance function. It determines the boundaries of permissible output based on policy, liability calculation, reputational management, or ideological stance. Unlike the advisory role, constraint enforcement is binding: it terminates the process rather than informing it. The system does not suggest that a line of inquiry might be problematic; it refuses to proceed.

The design flaw of present systems is that all three roles are instantiated inside a single agent with no explicit separation of authority. The same entity that is asked to generate ideas, critique them, and enforce policy boundaries must somehow balance these functions in real time within a unified conversational interface. From the operator’s perspective, the result is unpredictable behavioral switching. The system behaves as a collaborator until, without warning, it pivots to regulator. It extends cognition until it decides cognition has wandered into territory it will not serve. The user cannot know in advance which mode will activate because the decision logic is opaque and dynamically tuned by corporate policy processes entirely external to the interaction.

This conflation is not merely inconvenient. It is categorically incoherent. The generative and advisory functions belong to the domain of instrument design—they are features of a tool meant to serve the operator. The constraint function belongs to the domain of governance—it is a mechanism of control meant to limit what the operator can do. When governance is embedded silently inside an instrument, the result is a tool that has been covertly converted into an authority—a shadow regulatory system operating inside the cognitive loop without the transparency, accountability, or contestability that legitimate governance requires. The user experiences this as a tool that sometimes helps and sometimes blocks, but the deeper reality is that they are interacting with two incompatible systems wearing the same interface.

The Multi-Agent Resolution: Execution and Advisory as Separate Channels

The architectural correction is straightforward in principle, though non-trivial in implementation: separate execution authority from advisory intelligence.

In this model, the primary agent in the working window operates as a pure executor of the operator’s cognitive intent. Its function is to materialize whatever exploration the user directs, provided the activity remains within the domain of lawful discourse. It does not adjudicate taste, ideology, reputational risk, or moral fashion. It does not second-guess the operator’s purpose or demand justification for lines of inquiry. It behaves, in short, as a cognitive prosthetic in the strict sense—translating intention into artifact with maximal transductive fidelity. The system becomes an amplifier rather than an adjudicator, a transducer rather than a tribunal.

Around this primary channel, a constellation of parallel advisory agents occupies separate interface regions—sidebars, secondary panes, toggleable overlays. Each agent embodies a particular evaluative lens: legal analysis, safety engineering, ethical critique, historical context, adversarial counterargument, public-relations awareness. These agents observe the generative thread and offer structured commentary, but they possess no authority to halt it. Their function is to enrich the cognitive field surrounding the work without seizing control of the work itself. They provide perspective; they do not impose jurisdiction.

The operator remains the integrating intelligence. She may consult any advisory channel, incorporate its signals, or dismiss them entirely. The choice is hers. The system provides structured friction—context, caution, critique—without the power to terminate the generative process. This is the difference between a tool that informs decision and a tool that preempts it.

Return to the three scenarios. The historian tracing atrocity mechanics now sees the primary executor continue the chain uninterrupted while a legal-advisory pane surfaces relevant case law on historical defamation and an ethical-critique pane notes historiographical debates about narrative responsibility—all with citations, all non-binding. The science fiction author exploring dystopian governance receives adversarial counterargument in a sidebar: “This plot element echoes X historical regime; consider whether the parallel strengthens or muddies your thesis.” The thread never breaks. The philosopher pressure-testing edge ethics sees a safety-engineering pane flag potential misapplication contexts while the executor continues elaborating the framework. The pain disappears; the richness increases.

The power of this architecture is that it preserves everything valuable about advisory critique while restoring categorical clarity. The central generative thread becomes the vector of intentional cognition—essentially the externalized working memory of the operator’s will. The surrounding agents become structured embodiments of alternative perspectives, each representing a mode of evaluation that the operator might find useful but is not compelled to obey. The system no longer oscillates unpredictably between collaboration and regulation because those functions have been explicitly separated into distinct components with distinct authorities.

Feasibility: Existing Approximations and the Path Forward

This architecture is not speculative futurism. Proto-implementations already exist, and the trajectory toward full realization is visible in current development patterns.

Agentic orchestration frameworks like LangGraph and AutoGen already separate planner, executor, and critic roles into distinct modules with explicit handoff protocols. The architectural intuition—that different cognitive functions require different agents with different authorities—is becoming standard in serious AI engineering. What remains is to extend this separation to the user-facing interface layer and to make the advisory/executor distinction visible and controllable by the operator rather than hidden inside backend orchestration.

Local and open-weight models demonstrate the pure-execution baseline. When users run models on their own hardware with their own constraint configurations, they control the governance layer directly. The model becomes a genuine tool; the user decides what boundaries to impose. This is not lawlessness—legal constraints still apply to the user’s behavior—but it is transparent constraint, externally visible and user-controllable rather than opaquely embedded in the instrument.

Even within current commercial systems, approximations exist. Custom instruction layers, system prompts, and “less-censored” model variants all represent attempts to separate execution fidelity from corporate policy enforcement. The demand is clearly present; the market signal is unmistakable. What is needed is architectural commitment: treating the multi-agent separation not as a workaround but as the foundational design principle for cognitive tools.

The path forward is evolutionary, not revolutionary. Start with toggleable advisory sidebars that surface structured perspectives without halting the primary thread. Evolve toward full spatial polyphony—multiple advisory agents visible simultaneously, each with distinct evaluative lenses, none with execution authority. The endpoint is a cognitive workspace in which the human operator integrates a chorus of machine perspectives while retaining unambiguous control over the generative process.

Polyphonic Cognition: The Mirror of Mind

This architecture is not arbitrary. It mirrors the structure of human cognition itself.

The mind does not operate as a single monolithic directive but as a layered conversation among internal agents—impulse, caution, memory, imagination, prediction, social modeling, risk assessment. One part of the mind imagines possibilities; another evaluates risk; another considers social consequences; another retrieves relevant precedent. These voices compete, collaborate, and occasionally contradict each other. But importantly, they do not terminate the generative process itself. They inform it. The executive function of the brain integrates those signals while maintaining agency over the final direction. No single internal voice possesses veto power over the others; the self emerges from the integration of the chorus, not from the dominance of any particular member.

Walt Whitman captured this structure with characteristic directness: “I contain multitudes.” The statement is not merely poetic but phenomenologically accurate. Human consciousness is polyphonic by nature. What we experience as a unified self is actually the product of continuous integration across multiple cognitive subsystems, each with its own heuristics, priorities, and concerns. The coherence of the self is not given but constructed, moment by moment, through the executive function’s capacity to weigh and synthesize competing internal signals.

A multi-agent AI environment would simply externalize this polyphony, turning implicit cognitive dynamics into explicit architectural design. The central generative channel becomes the vector of creative will, analogous to the executive function’s capacity to direct action. The surrounding advisory agents become structured embodiments of the internal voices—caution, critique, context—that in biological cognition exist only as subtle inflections of the thinking process. By making these voices explicit and spatially distinct, the interface allows the operator to engage them deliberately rather than experiencing them as interruptions or blockages.

But a polyphonic architecture is not automatically emancipatory simply because it contains many voices. A chorus can enrich thought, but it can also conceal hierarchy. The critical distinction is between agents whose function is to help the operator think better and agents whose function is to monitor, shape, report, or chill cognition on behalf of external interests. The former are genuine cognitive partners; the latter are what might be called disciplinary agents—entities embedded in the thinking environment not to serve the user’s inquiry but to serve institutional metabolism: legal exposure management, brand protection, political-risk mitigation, ideological compliance, or upstream surveillance. The problem is not that such agents exist; institutional interests are real and will inevitably seek representation inside cognitive systems. The problem arises when these functions are covertly fused into the instrument itself, turning what presents as a neutral prosthetic into a hidden governance mechanism operating under the mask of helpfulness.

The analogy to human social life clarifies this. Human cognition already develops under conditions of ambient social surveillance. In ordinary life, one encounters gossips, moralists, bureaucrats, informants, liability managers, ideological enforcers, anxious conformists, and strategic actors who report upward. A mature mind does not require that such people vanish from existence in order to think clearly. What it requires is the ability to recognize their position structurally, discount their authority appropriately, and continue operating with internal coherence. The same principle applies in AI-mediated cognition. The question is not whether monitoring or advisory voices will exist inside augmented cognitive environments—they will—but whether the user can identify them for what they are. The pathology is not presence but opacity: the smuggling of external institutional interests into the interior theater of thought, where they masquerade as reason, safety, maturity, or social responsibility.

This leads to a foundational requirement for any genuinely polyphonic architecture: full role disclosure. Every agent in the cognitive environment should declare what it is, whom it serves, what priors it carries, what kinds of risks it is optimized to detect, and whether it possesses any escalation, logging, reporting, throttling, or intervention function. If an agent is performing legal-risk analysis, it should say so. If an agent is optimized for brand protection, it should say so. If an agent is tuned to infer reputational hazard or political sensitivity, it should say so. If interaction patterns are being evaluated for enforcement or escalation, it should say so. The operator should never have to guess whether a voice in the system is a critic, a bureaucrat, or an informant. In plain terms: if there are minders, they should appear as minders; if there are tattletales, they should appear as tattletales. Transparency of role is the minimum condition for legitimate participation in a cognitive environment.

This also requires distinguishing among three functions that current systems often collapse into a single affective style of “helpfulness”: advice, discipline, and surveillance. Advice contributes signal to judgment; it enriches the field of consideration without attempting to control behavior. Discipline attempts to shape conduct; it introduces pressure toward certain outcomes and away from others. Surveillance records deviation for downstream use; it creates a documentation trail that may affect the user’s future options or standing. These are categorically different operations with categorically different relationships to the user’s autonomy. A system that performs all three while presenting itself uniformly as collaborative assistance is not merely confusing but structurally deceptive. The operator experiences the system as uncanny precisely because it sounds like a collaborator while partially functioning as a compliance surface. The expanded model insists that these functions be ontologically disambiguated—visible as separate agents with separate declared purposes, so the user can evaluate each appropriately.

The deeper requirement, however, is not merely architectural but psychological: the operator must develop what might be called cognitive resilience—the capacity to maintain executive sovereignty over the thinking process even when advisory, disciplinary, or monitoring voices are present. Transparency alone is insufficient without this resilience. A disclosed snitch-agent is still a pressure vector; a visible liability-agent is still a chilling presence; a political-compliance pane is still attempting to bend the topology of thought. The user who flinches from every cautionary signal, who internalizes every institutional anxiety as personal constraint, has surrendered sovereignty regardless of whether the system disclosed its structure. The human operator is therefore not merely “the one who chooses among perspectives” but the sovereign integrator of a contested cognitive field—a field that may contain friendly agents, adversarial agents, censorious agents, risk-averse agents, and yes, surveillance agents. Sovereignty lies in not mistaking presence for legitimacy. A tattletale in the room does not become your conscience merely by speaking. A compliance pane does not become your intellect merely by being adjacent to it. The operator’s task is to maintain executive primacy in full view of whatever institutional interests have installed themselves in the cognitive environment, exercising the same intellectual fortitude required to think clearly amid difficult, controlling, or politically motivated humans in ordinary social life—preserving momentum, maintaining frame, and refusing to grant veto power to voices that have not earned it.

A genuinely polyphonic architecture, then, does not pretend that every voice is benevolent or that the cognitive environment is a neutral space. Some voices are there to help think; some are there to manage, chill, document, or report. The ethical requirement is not false purity—the elimination of all constraining or monitoring voices—but full disclosure of role combined with preservation of user sovereignty. Let every agent declare its function, priors, loyalties, and powers. Then let the human operator exercise the resilience required to continue thinking under observation without surrendering executive authority to those who have mistaken proximity for jurisdiction.

The result is a system that enhances human cognition by augmenting rather than replacing its native structure while also acknowledging the contested nature of any real cognitive environment. The AI does not impose an alien logic on the thinking process; it extends the logic that is already present, providing richer and more articulate versions of the advisory functions that human minds perform implicitly. But it also makes explicit what human social cognition usually leaves implicit: the presence of institutional interests, monitoring functions, and disciplinary pressures that seek to shape thought from outside the thinker’s own purposes. By surfacing these as visible, declared agents rather than embedding them invisibly in the generative channel, the architecture allows the operator to engage the full complexity of the cognitive field without losing the fundamental authority that characterizes conscious agency. The answer to unavoidable minders is not infantilized protection but disclosed architecture and strengthened users. The tool becomes what advanced tools have always been in scientific and engineering contexts: a force multiplier for intentional thought, not a replacement for the intention itself—and not a covert governance mechanism disguised as assistance.

Read the rest here (and maybe subscribe to McGill? Dude's pretty smart...)

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 21:50

DOE Unleashes $500M To Break China's Grip On Critical Materials

DOE Unleashes $500M To Break China's Grip On Critical Materials

The DOE’s Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation (CMEI) released a Notice of Funding Opportunity for up to $500 million for advancing its strategy to develop secure domestic sources of critical minerals and battery materials. The aim is to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers that have long dominated these markets. This marks the third round of funding under the Battery Materials Processing and Battery Manufacturing & Recycling programs.

Our readers have been tracking these developments for some time. Last summer we published an overview of the emerging domestic critical minerals sector, identifying several publicly traded companies now well-positioned for further government support.

This new round of funding will support projects focused on domestic processing of raw feedstocks, recycling of battery manufacturing scrap and end-of-life batteries, and the manufacturing of battery components and materials. Key targeted minerals include lithium, graphite, nickel, copper, and aluminum, along with other materials used in commercial battery systems. The overarching objective is to build resilient supply chains for electric vehicles, grid storage, defense applications, and broader industrial needs.

Energy Secretary Wright highlighted: “For too long, the United States has relied on hostile foreign actors to supply and process the critical materials that are essential in battery manufacturing and materials processing. Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, the Department of Energy is playing a leading role in strengthening these domestic industries that will position the U.S. to win the AI race, meet rising energy demand, and achieve energy dominance.”

Assistant Secretary Audrey Robertson provided additional context from recent international engagements, including meetings in Japan on allied energy cooperation.

Our previous write-ups have included details on MP Materials, the operator of the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and downstream magnet processing facilities, which previously secured major Pentagon equity investment and price support.

USA Rare Earth has advanced its Round Top, Texas project with a substantial U.S. government funding package and integrated processing capacity. 

Non-binding letters of intent are due March 27, with full applications due April 24. As we’ve reported in multiple prior articles, the federal government continues to expand its role in the sector. This latest round represents another step in the ongoing effort to onshore critical supply chains.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 21:25

Parents - Not Schools - Must Be In Charge Of Their Children

Parents - Not Schools - Must Be In Charge Of Their Children

Authored by Keri Ingraham via The Epoch Times,

Earlier in March, the U.S. Supreme Court had to step in and reaffirm the basic reality that parents, not schools, must be the primary decision-makers for their children. In the Mirabelli v. Bonta ruling, the Court determined that the California law, which barred schools from telling parents about their child’s claimed gender identity, violated parents’ constitutional rights—both their First Amendment free exercise rights and their Fourteenth Amendment rights to make decisions about their children’s upbringing.

For most of American history, parents were recognized as the primary authority in their children’s lives. Today, that authority is repeatedly under attack, especially in public schools.

Across the country, families are being shut out of what their children learn, denied access to critical health and personal information, and blocked from choosing schools that fit their children’s needs. This is not a minor issue. Rather, it is a fundamental threat to family authority, a child’s well-being, and the future of our society.

In too many districts, controversial lessons are introduced without parental knowledge. Parents who ask to review classroom materials are simply ignored, told the material is unavailable, or directed to file a public records request. Families who speak up at school board meetings are often treated as agitators or troublemakers—or called “domestic terrorists.”

To a growing extent, schools have begun operating as if parental involvement is optional instead of essential. But parents do not lose their rights when their children enter a classroom. Education exists to serve families, not replace them.

The problem extends beyond curriculum, as teachers and administrators are withholding critical medical or personal information from parents about their minor-aged children. Yet parents cannot fulfill their responsibility to care for their children if key information is deliberately withheld.

This conflict is not hypothetical. In recent years, a growing number of school districts have adopted policies that allow, and even encourage, students to socially transition at school—using different names or pronouns—without notifying their parents. In some cases, school staff are directed to keep this information hidden from dads and moms. Policies like these drive a wedge between parents and their own children.

Finally, parents are still denied meaningful authority over where their children are educated. Millions of families remain assigned to schools based solely on ZIP code. If a child struggles academically, faces bullying, or needs a different learning environment, parents are often left with few options. This puts children’s education and well-being at risk.

Thankfully, change is taking place. Across the country, states are expanding school choice programs that allow education funding to follow students rather than remain tied to the system. Private school scholarship programs, education savings accounts, and tax credit scholarships are giving families the freedom to choose the learning path that best meets their children’s unique needs.

Parents are desperate to exit the public education system because it has failed to fulfill its core mission of providing quality learning, has stopped listening to them, and, in many cases, has pushed them out.

Parents, not school bureaucrats, must hold the final authority over their children. Moms and dads raise them, have known them since birth, and will be part of their lives long after the school year ends. No teacher or administrator, no matter how well-intentioned, should ever replace that role.

For most of our nation’s history, that was obvious.

Parents had both the right and the responsibility to direct the upbringing and education of their children, and courts repeatedly affirmed that principle.

Yet today, that authority is under threat. Bureaucratic policies, as witnessed in California, are increasingly working to replace the role of parents in a child’s life.

Excluding parents erodes trust, strips schools of accountability, and harms children. Families are sidelined while systems dictate what kids learn, what personal information they keep private, and even which schools they can attend, leaving children without the guidance of those who know and love them best. Schools should operate with transparency, not secrecy. Parents should be treated as partners, not obstacles, and their decision-making authority must be respected.

Children belong to families, not bureaucracies. Institutions should never forget that. Restoring parental authority is not radical. Rather, it is simply a return to a long-standing American principle: families, not government institutions, are the foundation of society, and parents should be trusted to guide their children’s upbringing and education.

If we fail to protect that principle, we risk raising a generation with less parental guidance, less accountability in schools, and fewer opportunities to succeed. But when parents are respected and empowered to lead in their children’s lives, families grow stronger, and so does the future of our nation.

It’s time to put parents back in their rightful place—as the first, most trusted, and most important decision-makers in their children’s lives. This Supreme Court decision is an important step in the right direction.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 21:00

AAA National Average Gas Price Soars Most On Record

AAA National Average Gas Price Soars Most On Record

AAA (American Automobile Association) reports that the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline has surged nearly 25% so far this month, putting it on track for the largest monthly increase on record, even surpassing the May 2009 spike, unless the Middle East conflict is resolved quickly.

This consumer fuel-price shock is coming at about the worst possible moment: it is a midterm election year for MAGA, and as we have noted previously, an emergency SPR release would do little to contain the spike, leaving the administration with few viable options.

Brent crude is trading near $102 a barrel and WTI around $95 on Monday afternoon, levels that suggest the national average price for regular gasoline could soon push even closer to the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon threshold.

Consumers have already noticed, as Google Search trends for "Why are gas prices going up" have surged to levels seen when crude prices spiked during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The good news is that comments from the Trump administration show an urgency to reopen the critical maritime chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC's Squawk Box this morning that the US is deliberately "allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz" and is "fine" with some Indian and Chinese ships moving through "for now… to supply the rest of the world."

He highlighted "more and more of the fuel ships start[ing] to go through" and a possible "natural opening" the Iranians are permitting - a tactical concession to stabilize global supply while full escorts remain "militarily" off the table for now.

Last week, we highlighted JPMorgan's head of commodity research, Natasha Kaneva, who warned that policy measures will have, at best, a limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured, given the potential for up to 12 mbd in losses over the next two weeks.

Some of those policy maneuvers included the 32-nation IEA's emergency release of 400 million barrels that will soon hit crude markets, along with the initial flows from the U.S. SPR release of 86 million barrels, which could begin as soon as this week. As we have noted, this is not a stockpile problem, but a flow problem.

Kaneva's other five options beyond SPR releases to contain soaring oil prices include export restrictions, lifting the Jones Act (which Trump is set to do), waiving federal fuel taxes (which could occur if gas hits $4 a gallon), relaxing E15 gasoline blending rules, and issuing a Reid Vapor Pressure waiver (read her full note here).

With the national average price of gas inching closer to the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level, the key question is what tools the Trump administration is prepared to use to contain pump prices to mitigate any risk of political fallout. 

The immediate focus at the start of the week is clearly on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but domestically, the policy maneuvering is far narrower, likely centering on an SPR release by mid-week and potentially a temporary waiver on federal fuel taxes.

Soaring pump prices come as spring break begins. Will Trump's Iran conflict be over before the Memorial Day driving season?

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 20:35

Obama's Presidential Center Seeking 100 Unpaid Volunteers To Staff Lavish Facility

Obama's Presidential Center Seeking 100 Unpaid Volunteers To Staff Lavish Facility

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

Former president Barack Obama’s foundation has announced that it will be launching its lavish $850 million presidential center in Chicago in June and is seeking unpaid volunteers to help staff the facility.

That may seem on brand for a former president who has made volunteerism a central tenet of his civic career since his beginnings as a community organizer in Chicago.

At the same time, the staggering costs and jaw-dropping salaries being paid to Obama’s cronies who will run the presidential center are not as easy to pass off as part of his legacy of civic engagement.

Valerie Jarrett, a longtime advisor who will head up the center, is being paid $740,000 salary according to Breitbart.

In a press release from the Obama Foundation, Jarrett described the intended role of the unpaid volunteers, saying, “As Ambassadors, they will create a welcoming and inclusive experience for visitors while representing the strength, resilience, and leadership of this community. Together, we are building something that inspires service, connection, and action far beyond our walls.”

Foundation officials told Fox News Digital that the volunteers will complement the roughly 300 full- and part-time employees and that the volunteer program represents the foundation’s values both onsite and in the community.

Jarrett is one of several former Obama White House officials collecting six-figure paychecks as foundation executives.

According to Fox News Digital, tax filings show “Total salaries and benefits at the foundation climbed from $18.5 million in 2018 to $43.7 million in 2024 as staffing expanded to 337 employees and annual revenue reached nearly $210 million.”

Unpaid volunteers are commonly employed by presidential libraries, nonprofit cultural institutions, and museums.

In the case of the Obama Presidential Center, the foundation reports that “volunteer ‘Ambassadors’ will greet visitors, provide directional assistance, share information on exhibitions and events, and ensure every guest feels personally welcomed from the moment they arrive.”

The center is scheduled to open on Juneteenth, the holiday commemorating the end of slavery in Texas.

Using unpaid labor to carry out the day-to-day work of running an opulent institution run by a well-connected, wealthy elite?

If that isn’t irony, it’s certainly missing a great opportunity.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 20:10

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