Bombshell Sexual-Harassment Suit Against JPM's Lorna Hajdini Called "Complete Fabrication"

The British tabloid newspaper Daily Mail first broke the story earlier this week about a former JPMorgan staffer who claimed that an executive director on JPM's leveraged finance team turned him into a "sex slave" by drugging him with Rohypnol and Viagra, according to a bombshell lawsuit. However, it now appears that the sexual harassment suit was "fabricated," according to a new report.

The New York Post reported late Thursday that Chirayu Rana, now a principal at Bregal Sagemount, filed the suit under the pseudonym "John Doe," alleging that Lorna Hajdini drugged him, forced him to have sex, and threatened his bonus.

"Rana has been accused of making fabricated sexual-harassment claims against a high-ranking executive at the bank after an internal investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing," the NYPost said, citing sources.

Hajdini's lawyers issued this statement to NYPost:

"Lorna categorically denies the allegations. She never engaged in any inappropriate conduct with this individual of any kind and has never even been to the location where the alleged sexual assault supposedly took place."

Rana apparently filed an internal complaint in May 2025 with JPM, alleging race- and gender-based harassment and abuse of power before his exit. During this time, he allegedly tried to negotiate a payoff that ran into the "millions," sources said. He also accused JPM of retaliation and of failing to investigate properly.

A JPM spokesperson told the outlet that its HR and legal teams reviewed phone records and emails, and interviewed employees, but found no merit to the claims. The bank said Rana refused to participate in the investigation or provide key facts.

"Following an investigation, we don't believe there's any merit to these claims," the spokesperson said. "While numerous employees cooperated with the investigation, the complainant refused to participate and declined to provide facts that would be central to supporting his allegations."

Notably, the outlet said, "Rana did not report to Hajdini. The two were simply colleagues on the leveraged finance team, which works on large corporate acquisitions, mergers, and buyouts."

JPM colleagues told the outlet that Hajdini is viewed internally as "a top performer," and that Rana "has tarnished her with a complete fabrication" after the suit, which was reported by the Daily Mail and subsequently by Indian media outlets. Most Western media outlets stayed away from the story, but X meme accounts had a field day.

Hajdini's Bloomberg profile saw a surge in activity on Thursday.

"That sucks, she got dragged through the news cycle because of this loser. On the plus side, she sort of looks like a legend now, especially now that they claim its fabricated, now she has this power lore around her of being a boss bitch," X user Autism Capital opined.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 07:10

Exxon & Chevron Shares Jump After Big Q1 Earnings Beat

The impact of the war in Iran is on full display this morning in the earnings of two oil giants - Chevron and Exxon Mobil - as both smashed earnings expectations (despite production pressures).

Ahead of the results, Exxon and Chevron had both flagged major reductions in 1Q earnings due to “timing effects,” or paper losses on derivatives tied to cargoes that had not yet reached their destinations before the end of the quarter.

These accounting charges are expected to fully unwind and turn a profit over the coming quarters but will contribute to messy numbers this morning. 

Exxon will take a hit of about $3.7 billion while Chevron’s will be about $3.2 billion, the companies guided earlier this month. 

Chevron exceeded profit expectations as higher oil and natural gas prices, as well as supplies from the acquisition of Hess Corp., outweighed production outages from the Iran war. As Bloomberg's Kevin Crowley highlighted: Adjusted first-quarter net income of $1.41 a share was 51 cents higher than the average estimate from analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Surging prices for crude and gas, combined with growth from Chevron’s new stake in a giant Guyanese field, helped cushion the blow from a 5% sequential drop in overall output.

Chevron already had warned that significant accounting losses on derivatives tied to cargoes that had yet to reach their destinations. Notoriously difficult to model, that guidance prompted some analysts to slash estimates, a factor that may have played into the magnitude of Friday’s beat.

Chevron’s outsized earnings owed much to swelling prices for real-world oil from places such as Kazakhstan, as well as fat margins from processing the company’s own crude through refineries, Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner said in an interview.

“Bottom line, execution exceeded expectations,” she said.

Exxon Mobil outperformed expectations after oil-production increases from Guyana and the Permian Basin helped offset supply losses due to the Middle East war. Bloomberg's Kevin Crowley highlighted: Adjusted first-quarter net income of $1.16 a share was 20 cents higher than the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Although profit dropped to a five-year low of $4.9 billion, that figure included the impact of temporary accounting charges tied to derivative contracts that the company expects to fully unwind over the coming months.

Even so, Exxon may revise guidance that forecast full-year daily output equivalent to 4.9 million barrels as the Iran war chokes Middle East energy flows and prevents the Texas oil giant from selling crude and liquefied natural gas from the region.

“Part of the challenge with giving guidance is, as you would imagine, we really don’t know how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed,” Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said in an interview.

Higher energy prices added $1.7 billion to earnings during the quarter, outweighing a $400 million blow from war-related production outages, according to company figures. Roughly 15% of Exxon’s worldwide output remains offline, Hansen said.

Exxon Mobil shares are up almost 2% in the pre-market...

And Chevron shares are also up around 2%...

Today's results follow big beats by European supermajors...

BP, the first supermajor to report first-quarter results, posted a big beat Tuesday. Earnings more than doubled from a year earlier to $3.2 billion, boosted by its trading and refining businesses.

French supermajor TotalEnergies raised share buybacks and dividends when reporting results Wednesday, on the back of soaring oil and gas prices as well as strong trading performance.

Italian major Eni also boosted share buybacks this quarter thanks to stronger cash-flow expectations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 06:49

EU Parliament Pushes Funding Cuts To Orbán-Founded Patriots Group As Witch-Hunt Continues

Via Remix News,

The European Parliament will vote today on suspending EU funding for the right-wing Patriots for Europe faction, founded by outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

At stake is the alleged mismanagement of €4.3 million of EU funds by Philip Claeys, the former secretary general of the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, who now holds the same post for the Patriots for Europe grouping.

One vocal critic of the lack of action by Brussels in the case, according to Euractiv, has been Nick Aiossa, director of Transparency International.

To remind readers, Soros-backed Transparency International has long attacked Hungary for various alleged violations. Last February, it notoriously ranked the CEE country at the same level as Burkina Faso and South Africa in its 2024 corruption index.

“Considering the seriousness and scale of the irregularities identified, and given that the expenditures in question were authorised and validated under the authority of Mr Claeys, the initiation of a complementary investigation by OLAF appears both necessary and proportionate,” Transparency International stated.

The funds are implicated in various accusations of misuse, including “fictitious service contracts, improper procurement procedures and donations to non-parliamentary groups with ties to far-right figureheads, such as France’s Marine Le Pen,” notes Euractiv.

Le Pen was a major target of Brussels as well, with her rising popularity seen as a threat ahead of critical presidential elections in France next year. Her party, National Rally, also joined the Patriots for Europe group. She was, however, banned from running for office in France after being convicted for misappropriating over €4 million in European Parliament funds, a charge she continues to deny and blames on a witch hunt against anti-migration, conservative voices.

Le Pen has appealed the ruling.

Transparency International’s Aiossa has called for Claeys to be stripped of his power as well. Claeys has denied any wrongdoing, telling Le Monde, “All payments made in the last five years have been duly invoiced, justified and controlled.”

This vote today is critical, as it will allow Brussels to continue going after Orbán by cutting funds for the group his Fidesz party belongs to and which still holds close to 12 percent of the seats in the 2024–2029 European Parliament. It is well known that the outgoing Hungarian leader, highly unpopular among Brussels elites for his sovereignty-focused, nationalist movement, is planning to renew and rebuild his brand inside his country, in Europe, and beyond.

Curbing any resurgence of Orbán will be a high priority for the EU leadership. On the other hand, they are also wrangling with getting funding as soon as possible to Hungary’s new leader, and their darling, Péter Magyar. However, this time, unlike when the right-wing conservatives were ousted from Poland, Brussels is playing hardball, insisting that certain hurdles be overcome before money is released.

Numerous mechanisms were used over the years to go after Orbán’s successive governments, with billions in EU funds ultimately frozen, specifically, €10 billion in post-Covid recovery funds and some €7 billion in cohesion funds.

Hungary has, in fact, already met 17 out of 27 conditions demanded by Brussels, for the former, but now, Magyar has only until August to deliver on judicial independence, anti-corruption safeguards and other reforms, notes Euractiv.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 06:30

British Police Raid Islamic Group Accused Of Sex Trafficking And Slavery

At least nine members of a Cheshire Islamic group have been arrested in a raid of 500 British police officers as part of an investigation into sexual offenses, slavery and forced marriage. 

Officers received reports of human trafficking, rape, and other crimes involving members of a group known as the Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light, based in Crewe.  Seven men and three women were taken into custody, according to a statement from the Cheshire Police, who said the investigation was initiated because of allegations made by a woman who was previously part of the group in 2023.

Chief Superintendent Gareth Wrigley, of Cheshire Constabulary, said: 

"Today’s operation is the outcome of a detailed and robust investigation into reports of serious sexual offenses, forced marriage and modern slavery involving members of a religious group called Ahmadi Religion of Peace and Light in Crewe. 

While those arrested are members of the group, I want to make clear that this is not an investigation into the religion, this is an investigation into the serious allegations which have been reported to us..."

The AROPL's is a religious movement founded in 2015 by Abdullah Hashem Aba Al-Sadiq (Egyptian-American raised Sunni Muslim). It draws heavily from Shia Islamic traditions.  The group self-identifies with Islamic roots, uses Islamic terminology (referring to their leader as the Qaim/Mahdi appointed in relation to Prophet Muhammad), and maintains many Islamic practices.

British authorities in the UK have been quick to disconnect the sect from the wider Islamic migrant community.  The reasons for this are obvious - The British government is under considerable pressure to stop hiding migrant crime and Islamic crime, but their political agendas are deeply intertwined with third-world immigration.  Islamic groups consistently deny that the actions of grooming gangs have any connection to Muslim culture.     

Islamic fundamentalism justifies the abuse and exploitation of "non-believers", using the "Doctrine of Abrogation" and a series of passages from the Quran specifically allowing for the humiliation or enslavement of foreigners and non-believers as a means to force them into religious submission.  The Islamic slave trade operated throughout Africa and the Middle East until it was disrupted by the British Empire from 1833 to 1937.    

The surprising level of transparency of the latest raid may be part of a British government effort to clean up their image after it was revealed in 2025 that pro-multicultural authorities had spent the past decade covering up numerous reports of Islamic "grooming gangs" kidnapping and assaulting young British girls.  The government had been aware of this criminal activity as early as 2015 and did nothing.  

It should be noted that many British activists have been threatened by law enforcement, attacked by the establishment media and even jailed over the years simply for exposing this ongoing problem common among third world migrants.  The grooming gangs were ignored because their activities were inconvenient to the liberal open borders narrative dominating social politics in Europe since 2014.

Today, however, polling shows that both the left wing Labour Party and the Conservatives Party (which is also left wing) are facing political obliteration in the next general election (held in 2029) due to their mishandling of the immigration problem as well as the UK economy.  Unless they offer substantial changes to their policies, they stand to be swept out of Parliament.

The multiculturalists may very well be removed from government regardless.      

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 05:45

Canada's Culture Minister: Regulating Online Content A Duty Of Federal Government

Authored by Olivia Gomm via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Culture Minister Marc Miller says the federal government has the role of regulating content on the internet and that Canada is years behind other countries when it comes to regulating “online harms.”

Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture Marc Miller rises during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Feb. 25, 2026. The Canadian Press/Spencer Colby

Miller told reporters on Parliament Hill April 29 that when it comes to the regulation of online content and social media, that role is “assumed by the federal government, whether we’re talking about moratoriums or the proper regulation of egregious online harms.”

“That’s stuff that we’re, frankly, a couple years behind in regulating, as we see other jurisdictions like Australia, like Britain, like France taking action,” Miller said, as was first covered by Blacklock’s Reporter. “We need to take action as well.”

Asked to comment on when the government plans on tabling a new online harms bill, Miller said “we’re working on it” and declined to share a timeline.

Miller told reporters earlier this month that a new online harms legislation is in the works and the government is “seriously” thinking about adding a social media ban for children to the bill, but did not provide a status or timeline for the introduction of the legislation then either.

The upcoming legislation will be the government’s third attempt to legislate on “online harms,” following previous proposals in 2021 and 2024, neither of which passed before Parliament was dissolved. Conservatives and civil liberties advocates had criticized both bills as posing a risk to freedom of expression.

In March, the federal government reconvened the same group of experts first formed in 2022 that made recommendations to the government on how to address online content deemed to be harmful, which led to Bill C-63.

The department of industry said in a recent report to the Senate social affairs committee that Ottawa is examining a “future online safety regime” meant to reduce content deemed as being harmful, such as hateful content and cyberbullying on large platforms.

“To advise on this proposal, the government has recently reconvened the Expert Advisory Group on Online Safety whose members previously contributed to the development of online harms legislation, to engage on new and emerging issues related to online harms,” the department said.

“Any future legislative proposal would be subject to parliamentary scrutiny, and details will be made public at the appropriate time.”

In 2021, Bill C-36 proposed a regulatory framework for harmful online content, but faced criticism from the opposition over its scope, including concerns about definitions of harmful speech and the extent of proposed oversight powers.

In 2024, Bill C-63 placed a stronger focus on protecting children and addressing specific categories of harmful content, and proposed the creation of new regulatory bodies such as a digital safety commissioner and ombudsperson. It also included amendments to the Criminal Code and human rights law, with stricter penalties for certain hate-related offences.

After pushback on the 2024 bill, the government said it was open to splitting the bill in two to facilitate the passage of measures protecting children, but the bill lapsed after Parliament was prorogued in January of last year.

Justice Minister Sean Fraser said last November that new legislation regulating online content would be different from the government’s previous proposals. Meanwhile, former Heritage Minister Steven Guilbeault said a few months earlier that upcoming online harms legislation would be similar to the versions tabled in 2024 and 2021.

The Liberals’ election platform last spring promised to “introduce legislation to protect children from horrific crimes including online sexploitation and extortion and give law enforcement and prosecutors the tools to stop these crimes and bring perpetrators to justice.”

The Liberals also pledged to “make it a criminal offence to distribute non-consensual sexual deepfakes” and to “increase penalties for the distribution of intimate images without consent.”

Jennifer Cowan, Noé Charter, and Paul Rowan Brian contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 05:00

China Reopens Fuel Export Spigot, Offering Relief To Asian Buyers

Beijing is reversing its curbs on refined fuel exports after halting shipments in the opening days of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This move suggests that Chinese domestic inventories are now at comfortable levels, allowing state refiners to reopen the export spigot, even as much of Asia remains gripped by a fuel shock caused by disrupted Gulf energy flows through the Hormuz chokepoint.

There was chatter earlier this week that China's state-owned refiners were applying for government permits to resume fuel exports in May. These include China Petrochemical (Sinopec Group) and China National Petroleum Corporation.

By late in the week, Bloomberg reported that state-owned refiners had received government approval to export 500,000 tons of fuel next month.

People familiar with the upcoming shipments said the one-off quota would allow gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to be sent to neighboring Asian countries, providing relief amid a worsening fuel crunch.

They said these shipments will be loaded onto tankers and are likely destined for Vietnam, Laos, and other nearby nations.

China's U-turn on export curbs comes weeks after the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and International Energy Agency urged countries to avoid panic hoarding of energy supplies, as JPMorgan analysts warned that Asia would face the most immediate impact from the Gulf energy shock.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 03:30

Trump Threatens To Pull Some US Troops Out Of Germany While Lambasting 'Ineffective' Merz

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has been a bit on the defensive since his earlier in the week swipe at President Trump over launching the war against Iran. The German leader had told students in a talk that the US is being "humiliated" by Iranian leaders. He had also asserted, "If I had known that it would continue like this for five or six weeks and get progressively worse, I would have told ​him even more emphatically."

As we covered earlier Thursday, Merz has tried to soften the spat, after Trump responded on Truth Social earlier, "From my perspective, my personal relationship with the ​US President remains good," he told reporters. "I simply had doubts from the ⁠start about what was begun with the war in Iran. That is ​why I have made that clear."

But that hasn't quieted Trump, who again hit back again in a fresh Thursday morning Truth Social post, which emphasized that the German Chancellor should focus more on problems like the Russia-Ukraine war, where "he has been totally ineffective" - Trump said. 

The US President once again reiterated that Germany is "broken" - and that this especially true on immigration and energy. He also reiterated that his Operation Epic Fury is making "the World, including German, a safer place!"

However, Merz earlier sought to place some of Germany's economic woes precisely on the war raging in the Middle East, and ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure. His initial April 29 remarks had included the following: "In Germany and Europe we are ​suffering from the consequences, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” he had said.

Wednesday night saw Trump issue a new, important threat, which he has been teasing as a possibility for day:

"The United States is studying and reviewing the possible reduction of Troops in Germany, with a determination to be made over the next short period of time," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Responsible Statecraft's Trita Parsi is also a deep Iran war critic, but says that EU leaders are full of hypocrisy on the Iran issue, and that it needs to be called out. Parsi writes:

Merz isn't wrong in saying he's "disillusioned" with the US & Israel over Iran because they "claimed at the beginning that they could solve this problem within days. Now I must recognize: It is not solved." But he is in no position to complain. He applauded the war and as a result, owns the outcome. This is typical of some EU leaders who support and help facilitate the US's worst instincts, and then pretend they are innocent when the foreign policy adventure predictably goes wrong.

The comments underscore several European leaders’ reassessment of their relations with Trump. A tendency to smooth ties by currying favor has given way to a more sober perspective of a U.S. president who has repeatedly called into question NATO, bolstered European far-right forces and threatened to seize Greenland, a territory of Denmark.

Meanwhile Merz holds a presser in military fatigues, hilariously enough...

German Chancellor Merz demands:

Iran must come to the negotiating table.

It must stop playing for time.

It must not continue to take the entire region — and ultimately the whole world — hostage.

The military nuclear program in Iran must be ended.

There must be no more… pic.twitter.com/xkaf6Eh7wh

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 30, 2026

Regardless, the fresh critique by a leading EU head of state is certainly going to add fuel to the fire of Trump's ratcheting anti-EU and anti-NATO rhetoric, given their absence in helping the US get the Strait of Hormuz back open and the return to normal functioning of global energy transit once again.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 02:45

Top Russian & Indian Think Tanks Devised A Plan For Rebalancing Economic Relations

Authored by Andrew Korbybko via Substack,

Sanctions, bureaucracy, and logistics are the primary obstacles to “diversifying economic ties and correcting the existing imbalance”, but these can be surmounted through SMEs playing a greater role, more localization and procedure simplifications, and optimizing their trade corridors.

The Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and Gateway House, which are among their country’s top think tanks, published a joint report in late March about moving “Toward More Balanced Russia–India Economic Relations” for the second Russia-India International Conference. It’s over 40 pages long so this piece will highlight the top takeaways and then briefly analyze them. The report began by acknowledging the challenges posed by US sanctions for reaching their goal of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.

The solution that was presented, especially for the oil and financial industries, is having Indian SMEs play a much greater role due to their much less exposure (if any at all) to the US’ secondary sanctions. China’s “tea pot” model of small refineries is mentioned as an example for India’s oil industry to follow. The authors also proposed bilateral cooperation in building similar such facilities in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, for example. India would thus help Russia meet their smaller demand.

Their suggestion for expanding critical minerals cooperation is for their state-owned companies to form joint R&D initiatives to strengthen their technological self-sufficiency. As for doing the same in the broad health-related field (biotech, pharmaceuticals, etc.), it’s recommended that Indian manufacturers localize production, IP rights, etc., in Russia to better overcome bureaucratic hurdles. Russian research capabilities could also pair with Indian manufacturing capacity to expand market share in third countries.

The bureaucratic hurdles mentioned above also impede cooperation on food and textile industries, but simplifying procedures could help, especially through the creation of unified digital platforms. More industrial cooperation is possible, especially in the automotive, aviation, and railway industries, but localization is likely the prerequisite. Improving logistics across the North-South Transport Corridor and the Vladivostok-Chennai Maritime Corridor can reduce costs and thus raise incentives for scaling trade.

More technological cooperation is difficult for the multiple reasons that were enumerated in the report, not least of which is global competition, so this might prove disappointing in the future. Each’s SMEs might have better chances, but overall, this might not expand associated cooperation all that much. What’s much more promising is labor cooperation, which is already a work in progress that readers can learn more about here, basically amounting to Russia replacing Central Asian labor with Indian.

To review, sanctions, bureaucracy, and logistics are the primary obstacles to “diversifying economic ties and correcting the existing imbalance”, but these can be surmounted through SMEs playing a greater role, more localization and procedure simplifications, and optimizing their trade corridors. Although the prospects for more technological cooperation are dim, efforts nevertheless shouldn’t be abandoned due to the strategic importance of this industry, especially its AI component.

The authors conclude that Russia and India’s $100 billion trade goal by 2030 is realistic, but this requires urgently implementing the aforementioned proposals to increase 2025’s estimated $60 billion in trade by another $40 billion in the next four years, which will be very difficult to achieve and then maintain. The Third Gulf War has caused radical changes to the global energy market, Eurasian logistics, and the financial industry, however, so it’s premature to predict the odds of success till the dust finally settles.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/01/2026 - 02:00

Congress Passes 45-Day Extension Of FISA Section 702, Sending It To Trump's Desk

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump on Thursday signed a bill to extend a spying authority of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) for 45 days as congressional debate on the controversial measure continues.

The U.S. Capitol building on April 29, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Both chambers of Congress raced to pass the short-term measure earlier Thursday after the Senate declined to take up a House-passed bill to extend the deadline until 2029.

The House passed the “clean” extension, without reforms, which punts the deadline from April 30 to June 12, in a 261–111 vote. It was passed under a suspension of the rules, meaning it relied on Democratic support to pass. However, opposition to the measure was also bipartisan, with 26 Republicans joining 85 Democrats in casting a “No” vote.

The measure’s passage and signature into law came just hours before the critical—but contentious—power was due to expire.

The 45-day extension was proposed and passed by the Senate earlier on Thursday after it became clear that a three-year extension passed by the House the night before couldn’t pass the Senate before the midnight deadline.

Section 702 allows U.S. intelligence agencies to collect emails, phone calls, texts, and other communications of foreign nationals located outside the United States for national security purposes, such as tracking terrorism, espionage, or weapons proliferation, without obtaining an individualized warrant.

However, the data of Americans who communicate with these foreign targets can be incidentally gathered and is available to U.S. intelligence without a warrant—a “backdoor search” loophole that has come under criticism by privacy advocates.

Trump, despite his current support for a clean reauthorization of the power, has acknowledged his experience with the law in the past.

In a post on Truth Social, he described it as “the worst and most illegal abuse of FISA in [U.S.] History,” referencing disclosures that revealed that the FBI had used Section 702 of FISA to spy on Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign as part of the Crossfire Hurricane operation.

Nevertheless, Trump has praised the intelligence utility of the authority when used appropriately.

However, some lawmakers in both chambers are disinclined to agree: Bipartisan concerns about Section 702’s effects on American civil liberties, particularly Fourth Amendment protections, are as old as the legislation itself.

Despite Trump’s calls for a clean reauthorization—calls that have won the support of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)—many of those congressional skeptics are among Trump’s closest allies, including lawmakers like Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.).

On Wednesday, the lower chamber also authorized a bill that would extend Section 702 of FISA for three years, but that measure included provisions that have been opposed by Senate Democrats.

Namely, the three-year extension bill would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing digital currency, an asset class known as central bank digital currency.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has long warned that such a measure would struggle in the upper chamber, and urged the House against attaching it to the reauthorization measure.

Jackson Richman contributed to this report.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 23:30

Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund To Stop Funding LIV Golf After 2026 Season

LIV Golf is preparing to inform players and staff that its main financial backer, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, will stop funding the league after the 2026 season, according to Golfweek. The announcement—expected midweek—would open the door for CEO Scott O'Neil to pursue new investment to keep the tour running.

Since launching in 2022 as a challenger to the PGA Tour, the circuit has reportedly burned through more than $5 billion while failing to gain meaningful U.S. viewership. Broadcast deals with The CW Network and later Fox did little to improve ratings.

Uncertainty around funding has been building. In April, O’Neil acknowledged the league is only financed through this season, saying future survival depends on securing new backers—even as he publicly maintained LIV is in its best position yet.

Golfweek writes that the timing aligns with a broader shift by PIF, led by Yasir Al-Rumayyan, toward prioritizing domestic projects over global spending.

LIV did manage to lure big names like Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jon Rahm with lucrative deals. Still, its team-based, no-cut format struggled to resonate broadly, despite pockets of success overseas and moments like Anthony Kim’s brief resurgence.

Efforts to align with the PGA Tour—including a 2023 framework agreement that followed LIV’s antitrust lawsuit—ultimately stalled, even with involvement from Donald Trump.

Recent player movement has added to the uncertainty, with figures such as Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed stepping away from LIV competition.

With only a handful of events remaining this season, LIV Golf now faces mounting pressure to secure fresh funding—or risk folding after 2026.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 23:00

1 In 5 Americans Are Still Working From Home

The COVID-19 pandemic marked a dramatic shift in workplace dynamics, as working from home suddenly became the norm for millions of workers in the United States and across the globe.

As Statista's Felix Richter notes, this transformation offered employees newfound flexibility, enabling them to manage their time more effectively, eliminate commutes, facilitate childcare and often achieve a better work-life balance. Remote work also allowed for a customized work environment, fostering comfort and productivity for many.

However, traditional office settings continue to hold unique advantages, which is why, six years later, more and more employers have called their workers back to the office for most days of the week. Offices facilitate in-person collaboration, spontaneous brainstorming and social interaction, all of which are challenging to replicate virtually. Additionally, the structured environment of an office can provide clearer boundaries between work and personal life, reducing distractions and helping employees switch off when at home.

According to Statista Consumer Insights, 1 in 5 American employees still worked from home regularly in 2025, while 43 percent of respondents regularly worked in a company office.

You will find more infographics at Statista

In many cases, hybrid models combining the benefits of both setups have emerged, catering to diverse employee preferences and living situations and striking a balance between the benefits and disadvantages of both working from home and in the office.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 22:30

Massive Lithium Lode In Appalachia Could Power 130 Million EVs: USGS

America's worrisome dependency on foreign sources of lithium could become a thing of the past: About 328 years' worth of last year's lithium imports is buried in Appalachia, according to a new analysis published by the US Geological Survey (USGS). That's about 2.3 million metric tons of undiscovered but economically recoverable lithium -- aka "white gold."  

“This research shows that the Appalachians contain enough lithium to help meet the nation’s growing needs – a major contribution to U.S. mineral security, at a time when global lithium demand is rising rapidly,” said USGS Director Ned Mamula. "The United States was the dominant world producer of lithium three decades ago, and this research highlights the abundant potential to reclaim our mineral independence.” Today, Australia is the top producer, and China in second place -- however, China boasts about 60% of the world's lithium refining capacity for batteries.   

The deposits are spread over a large swath of territory. The southern Appalachians -- primarily the Carolinas -- have about 1.43 million metric tons, while the northern Appalachians hold 900,000 metric tons, most of it in Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, USGS says. Added up, it's enough to put the requisite lithium in 130 million electric vehicles, or a thousand years worth of laptop production. 

USGS project global lithium production capacity will double over the next three years. In April, Finland became the first European country to host the full continuum of lithium production, from an open-pit mine that produces battery-grade lithium hydroxide, to a refinery. "The €783 million project is operated by Keliber Oy, a Finnish mining and battery-materials company," EuroNews reported. 

Today, there's only one operating lithium mine in America: the Albemarle Silver Peak Mine in Nevada. Earlier this week, environmentalists sued to stop exploratory drilling in Oregon near the Nevada border. The US Bureau of Land Management had given the green light for HiTech Minerals to set up 168 drill sites over five years, on a 7,200-acre expanse of public land. The plaintiffs include "Great Old Broads for Wilderness." In a 2024 analysis, USGS concluded that brines in southwest Arkansas' Smackover Formation hold 5 to 19 million metric tons of lithium, but didn't determine what proportion is economically recoverable. 

To say the more-promising Appalachian deposits were created a long time ago is an understatement. "Lithium-rich pegmatites in the northern Appalachians formed from the same geologic forces that built the mountains more than 250 million years ago," explained the USGS, a Department of the Interior organization and the country's largest water, earth and biological science mapping organization. "The high heat and pressure during the mountain-building caused some of the deeper crustal rocks to melt, and some of these magmas were rich in lithium." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 20:30

Hershey CEO Says GLP-1 Boom Fuels Demand For Gum And Mints

Hershey reported first-quarter sales and earnings that exceeded Bloomberg-tracked analyst expectations, driven by higher candy prices and resilient consumer demand.

Beyond the earnings report, CEO Kirk Tanner made one very notable comment in prepared remarks: demand for gum and mints remains strong, with the category benefiting from "functional snacking" tailwinds tied to GLP-1 adoption.

"We've also seen strong demand for gum and mint products as the category benefits from functional snacking tailwinds, including GLP-1 adoption," Tanner said.

GLP-1 drugs suppress appetite and slow digestion, so it appears that many users who no longer want a full calorie-packed snack or meal are gravitating toward gum and mints instead.

That is an unexpected positive for Hershey, a company best known for Reese's, Kit Kat in the U.S., Almond Joy, Mounds, York, Twizzlers, and other confectionery brands.

While weight-loss drugs have raised concerns about reduced calorie intake and lower food purchases, Hershey's gum and mint portfolio appears to be benefiting from a shift toward lower-calorie gum and mints.

Tanner told analysts on the earnings call, "It is a treat, not a meal," adding that the company is spending a lot of time researching the expanding use of GLP-1 drugs and incorporating that into its outlook. "The confection category is relatively insulated compared to other food categories."

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 20:05

Here Come The Cancellations: Brookfield-Backed Compass Pulls Out From Major Northern Virginia Data Center Project

Compass Datacenters has decided to withdraw from its plan to develop a major data-center corridor in Northern Virginia after spending years pursuing approvals and investing tens of millions of dollars, according to Bloomberg.

The company ultimately concluded the project wasn’t feasible due to mounting legal challenges, stricter regulations, and weakening political support, particularly around tax incentives.

This move highlights a broader shift in how communities and policymakers are responding to data-center projects. Local residents have increasingly raised concerns about issues like energy consumption, environmental impact, and potential effects on property values. As a result, companies in the industry are finding it more difficult, expensive, and time-consuming to gain approval for new developments.

Bloomberg writes that the proposed project was part of a larger effort to expand Northern Virginia’s role as a global hub for data centers. However, conflicts over land use, public notice procedures, and zoning approvals led to court rulings that invalidated key permissions. Faced with the prospect of prolonged legal battles and uncertain outcomes, Compass chose to step back.

The situation also reflects growing political sensitivity around how much support these developments should receive. Debates over tax breaks and incentives have made officials more cautious, while organized community opposition has become more influential in shaping decisions. Together, these pressures are forcing companies to rethink where and how they expand.

Meanwhile, another developer involved in the broader plan is still considering whether to continue challenging the rulings, showing that while some companies are retreating, others may continue pushing forward despite the growing resistance.

Recall days ago we wrote that half of US data centers scheduled for 2026 would be cancelled or delayed. We wrote then that the outlook for the US AI revolution looks increasingly more dim. 

That's because, as Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas writes, "the American data center boom is hitting a formidable wall of logistical friction." He is referring to the latest outlook by Sightline Climate, which is also reinforced by recent articles from Bloomberg and others, and reveals a sobering reality for 2026: nearly half of the nation's planned 16-gigawatt capacity faces cancellation or delay, with only 5 gigawatts currently under construction.

This inertia stems from a volatile mix of local permitting hurdles, community resistance, and a desperate reliance on overextended global supply chains for critical components like transformers and helium.

That's right: half.

That's right: despite $700BN+ of expected 2026 hyperscaler capex, nearly half of the data centers scheduled to begin operations in the US in 2026 "will either face delays or outright cancellations."

The data, which comes from Sightline Climate's 2026 Data Center Outlook,  suggests that just 30% - 50% of the ~16 GW of planned US capacity for the year will face risks, with only ~5 GW currently under construction!

By 2027, the gap between ambition and reality widens further, as a mere fraction of the announced 21.5 gigawatts has actually broken ground. Worse, according to Futurism, data centers slated to open in 2027 are progressing far more slowly than anticipated. "Only about 6.3 gigawatts worth of computing infrastructure are actually under construction, compared to 21.5 announced gigawatts."

And then visibility drops to virtually nothing beyond 2028 as uncertainty increases materially in the outer years. According to the article, "things get even dodgier in the coming years, with the vast majority of data centers planned for launch between 2028 and 2032 having yet to even break ground. There are a further 37 gigawatts of planned infrastructure which haven’t even received a firm completion date, only 4.5 [gigawatts] of which have actually begun work."

This trend suggests an increasingly uncertain future for the industry, where power constraints and grid instability cast long shadows over projects slated through 2032.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 19:40

CCP Moves To Tighten Oversight Of Gig Workers

Authored by Michael Zhuang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Beijing is moving to tighten its grip on tens of millions of gig workers—an increasingly vital but volatile segment of China’s labor force—prompting warnings from analysts that the effort could deepen social tensions rather than contain them.

Delivery workers from Chinese shopping platform Meituan gather for a briefing before they start their shift near a mall in Beijing on Aug. 21, 2025. Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images

On April 26, China’s top leadership bodies, the General Office of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the State Council, released new guidelines via Chinese state media Xinhua News Agency, calling for stronger management of what the CCP describes as the country’s “new employment groups.”

The directive, while only now made public, is dated Oct. 29 last year. It calls for increased adherence to Xi Jinping’s political doctrine and urges workers to “listen to and follow the Party.”

Using vague language, it also mentions plans for “a working mechanism characterized by top-to-bottom coordination” by the year 2027, with further objectives coming within another three to five years, including that “ideological and political guidance will be more forceful.”

The move comes as Beijing seeks to assert tighter control over the fast-growing gig workforce that now numbers about 84 million people—roughly one-fifth of China’s employed population—according to a February analysis in “Qiushi,” a CCP propaganda magazine.

Vast, Hard-to-Control Workforce

China defines “new employment groups” as workers that are engaged in flexible, platform-based jobs tied to the digital economy. They include food delivery riders, couriers, ride-hailing drivers, e-commerce workers, and livestream hosts, many of whom are young job seekers drawn by low barriers to entry but who face long hours, unstable incomes, and limited labor protections.

The category overlaps with China’s broader concept of flexible employment, which includes part-time workers and the self-employed. By 2025, officials estimated that more than 200 million people fell into that broader grouping, according to state media Xinhua News Agency.

Despite their size, these workers often lack access to social benefits and operate outside traditional labor structures, making them difficult to organize and, from the CCP’s perspective, difficult to control, according to U.S.-based China current affairs commentator Wang He.

Wang told The Epoch Times the new directive reflects mounting concern within the CCP about the political risks posed by this group. He said the policy is about extending state control.

“The CCP sees this [as a segment of the workforce] that cannot be allowed to drift beyond Party oversight,” he said. “The priority is political control.”

Wang said that in recent years, China has already expanded surveillance systems and grassroots governance networks. The latest policy signals an effort to integrate gig workers more fully into that framework, while reinforcing the Party’s authority over both society and the government.

“This group is young, mobile, and highly connected through the internet,” he said. “Their ability to voice grievances is stronger than many other groups.”

Signs of Discontent

Incidents over the past year have underscored those concerns.

In December, hundreds of delivery riders in Changsha, China, gathered to protest restrictions on access to a residential compound. Videos circulating online showed one participant dressed in a yellow cape, prompting a heavy police response.

More recently, from late March to early April, delivery workers in Chongqing, China, staged a multi-day strike, protesting falling pay rates and what they described as exploitative platform practices.

Such episodes, while localized, have raised alarms among some experts about the potential for broader unrest.

Xu Zhen, a senior professional in China’s capital markets, told The Epoch Times that disputes involving delivery workers have increasingly become flashpoints for social instability.

“The CCP is trying to consolidate various tools of social control, through Party branches in platform companies and even intervention in algorithms,” he said. “But it’s not clear these measures will work.”

The official guidelines also promised better services and legal protections for gig workers, including efforts to solve “practical difficulties” and “enhance ideological and political work.”

Critics say such language is often more rhetorical than substantive.

Wang said the promise to protect rights and provide services is largely a façade.

In practice, many gig workers struggle to access social insurance or other benefits, leaving them effectively marginalized within China’s labor system, according to Wang. Local governments, already under fiscal strain, may lack the resources—or the incentive—to expand support.

Expanding Party Reach

The policy also reflects a broader institutional shift.

In 2023, Beijing established a new Central Social Work Department tasked with strengthening social stability and expanding CCP influence across a wide range of sectors, from industry associations to private enterprises and grassroots organizations.

Earlier this month, the CCP also announced a campaign via Chinese state media People’s Daily targeting industry associations, again stressing the need for stronger party leadership.

Taken together, Wang said the measures point to a deepening emphasis on control amid economic uncertainty and rising social pressures, raising questions about whether tighter oversight will ensure stability or fuel further discontent.

Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 19:15

What Is the Trump Administration Really Trying To Do With The Latest Comey Indictment?

On Tuesday, a federal grand jury in the Eastern District of North Carolina handed down a two-count indictment against the former FBI director James Comey, charging him with threatening the life of President Donald Trump and transmitting that threat across state lines.

The basis for the charges: an Instagram post from May 2025 in which Comey shared a photo captioned "Cool shell formation on my beach walk." The shells on the sand spelled out "86 47." Each count carries a maximum of ten years in federal prison.

Comey deleted the post the same day it went up and issued an immediate clarification on social media. "I didn't realize some folks associate those numbers with violence," he wrote. "It never occurred to me, but I oppose violence of any kind, so I took the post down." He later told interviewers that he and his wife had simply spotted the formation during a stroll along a North Carolina beach and read it as a quirky, possibly restaurant-themed joke. Despite the dubious explanation, from the moment the post became controversial, legal analysts were skeptical that a case against him was possible.

There still appears to be bipartisan agreement on this point.

"It's a seashell case, nine, ten months old, and it will never go anywhere," Joe Scarborough said on MSNOW's Morning Joe. "It will have the opposite impact, and they'll get laughed out of court." 

Constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley, one of Trump's more reliable legal allies, agreed the case has little legal merit, despite the indictment.

"To convict Comey, the Justice Department will have to show that his adolescent picture was a 'true threat' under 18 U.S.C. § 871 and § 875(c). It is not." He went further, invoking the founding era: "This nation was founded in rage. The Boston Tea Party was rage. In forming this more perfect union, we created the world's greatest protection of free speech in history." Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the prosecution's theory.

First Amendment protections for political speech are remarkably broad. Under Brandenburg v. Ohio, the Supreme Court held that the government cannot punish inflammatory speech unless it is "directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action" - a standard that has shielded provocateurs far more combustible than a retired FBI director posting a picture of seashells.

Former CNN analyst Chris Cillizza has his own theory about what is really behind this latest indictment. According to Cillizza, Trump is less concerned about whether Comey goes to jail than he is with just making Comey's life miserable.

“It's impossible to separate both of those indictments, the one in September and the one today, from Donald Trump's absolutely repeatedly expressed belief that the Department of Justice exists to target and punish his political enemies,” Cillizza mused. “Now, again, whether they would actually be guilty in a court of law, we shall see, but to punish these people. So we saw Comey indicted in September 2025, since dropped. We saw Letitia James, another big political enemy in Donald Trump's mind of his, also indicted, charges dropped. We've seen John Bolton, the, a major Trump critic, indicted, and now we see Comey indicted again.”

Donald Trump doesn't really care if Jim Comey goes to jail.

He just wants to make Comey's life miserable for as long as possible. pic.twitter.com/7wsHW32kGp

— Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) April 28, 2026

Cillizza gets some things wrong here. The Letitia James and the previous Comey case were tossed by a Clinton-appointed judge who claimed that the Justice Department illegally appointed the prosecutor who brought the charges at President Donald Trump's urging. They were not tossed on the merits.

Is Trump trying to make life difficult for his enemies? Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche pushed back on this suggestion on CBS Tuesday, insisting the administration had been investigating the matter for nearly a year and that a grand jury - not the White House - returned the indictment. "Of course not, absolutely, positively not," Blanche said when asked whether Trump directed the charges. The indictment itself argues that a "reasonable recipient who is familiar with the circumstances" would interpret the shell arrangement as a serious expression of an intent to do harm to President Trump. That framing will be tested the moment a federal judge reads the First Amendment.

There is a certain irony lodged in all of this. Trump spent years - genuinely - defending himself from what he called a weaponized justice system. The Russia investigation, the two bogus impeachments, the civil fraud trial in New York, the classified documents case, the January 6 prosecution: whatever one thinks of any individual charge, the cumulative weight of it was real and politically motivated in ways that even Trump's critics occasionally acknowledged. 

But out of those assaults, the president emerged convinced that the DOJ had become a political instrument and that the only way to respond was to go after those who abused their power in the first place.

The trouble is that a seashell photograph does not make for a compelling demonstration of that principle. There are documented, substantive cases to be made against Comey - his handling of the Hillary Clinton email investigation, his unauthorized leaking of memos to the press, and his role in initiating the surveillance of a sitting president's campaign. Those are the cases that would survive scrutiny, attract serious legal arguments, and perhaps hold up before a jury. Instead, the administration is going to federal court over a photo of seashells. 

Blanche said Tuesday, "If anybody in this country thinks … that it is okay for anybody to threaten the president of the United States … then we have a bigger problem than I even imagined." That may be true. But first you have to prove the threat was real - and that argument, and experts on both sides aren't seeing how this meets that standard.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 18:50

$25 Billion: Hegseth Accused Of Lowballing Cost Of Iran War

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has been in a very public spat and back-and-forth with Congressional Democrats over the Trump administration's $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget request, as well as over Iran war strategy and mounting costs.

Hegseth has turned to some classic wartime fearmongering: "What is it worth to ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon?" - he posed to members of Congress when pressed in a hearing.

Hegseth called the "reckless, feckless, and defeatist words of congressional Democrats" the United States' greatest adversary. At a moment Operation Epic Fury is about to reach 60-days on Friday, he's still insisting that this is not a 'forever war' with an open-ended timetable.

One figure to come out of the latest Congressional hearings this week is a $25 billion total Iran war price tag thus far:

A Pentagon official told the House Armed Services Committee Wednesday that the war in Iran cost the United States $25 billion in the first two months.

Facing questions from ranking member Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), Acting Defense Department comptroller Jules Hurst testified that most of the cost was “in munitions” plus “[operations and maintenance] and equipment replacement.”

Smith thanked the Pentagon official for offering the most specific cost estimate since its first week, when Hurst said the price tag was roughly $11 billion. “I’m glad you answered that question because we’ve been asking for a hell of a long time and no one has given us the number.”

via Reuters

However, the $25BN number immediately raised questions among skeptics, both within Congress and among media pundits, over whether this is a lowball number.

According to Responsible Statecraft: 

Rep. Ro Khanna pushed back on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s assertion that the supplemental would only include $25 million for the mission in Iran specifically. “You’re saying $25 billion. If you come back and want to revise those numbers, because all the experts are disagreeing with you when it comes to today’s dollars in damage,” Khanna said.

Also Reuters has noted, "But it is unclear how the Pentagon arrived at the $25 billion amount given that a source had told Reuters last month that President Donald Trump's administration estimated that the first six days of the war had cost the United States at ​least $11.3 billion."

The case for skepticism is further fueled by the fact that the US military has lost so many expensive radar systems and aircraft throughout the war. 

"Iran’s missiles and drones, and one devastating instance of so-called friendly fire, have destroyed US military equipment worth between $2.3bn and $2.8bn, the Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies has calculated," one report has underscored.

U.S. officials say the Iran war has likely cost closer to $50 billion—about double the $25 billion publicly cited by the Pentagon.

The lower figure excluded major expenses like destroyed equipment and damaged bases.

Much of the added cost comes from replacing lost munitions…

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 30, 2026

But like with the Iraq and Afghan wars before, the true cost in both blood and treasure might not be known or fully assessed even for years to come. And that's assuming Trump's Iran quagmire gambit wraps up by then.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 18:20

AI Hype Meets Hardware Crunch As US Power Equipment Market Eyes $65 Billion Boom

Wood McKenzie has released a report that US spending on power generation gear for data centers alone could hit $65 billion by 2030, more than triple the $20 billion logged last year. Data center capacity is forecast to reach 110 GW by the end of the decade, with Bloomberg also commenting that “total US spending on power-plant equipment may climb to $215 billion."

The increased spending for the heavy electrical equipment market sounds great, but unfortunately, there's no equipment to buy domestically.

WoodMac Sounds Alarm On Transformer Shortage Amid AI Data Center Boom https://t.co/PAIIhAfS5f

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 16, 2025

Lead times for transformers, switchgear, and related gear stretch from 18-36 months and much of the shortfall is filled by imports from China, exposing the supply chain to the very geopolitical risks Washington claims to be racing against. The heavy reliance on imports for these grid-critical items led to the massive stack of Defense Production Act orders put out by the administration in April. 

Sightline Climate data highlighted earlier shows nearly half of the roughly 16 GW of US data center capacity slated to break ground in 2026 now faces delay or outright cancellation. Only about 5 GW sit under active construction.

The explosion in AI data center energy demand has been ongoing for years now. From PJM’s frantic scramble for 15 gigawatts of new supply to feed hyperscaler loads to the eye watering capacity auction price spikes that data centers helped trigger.

That squeeze is accelerating two parallel trends. 

First, hyperscalers are increasingly turning to behind the meter solutions. These include small nuclear reactors or gas fired generation directly on site. This approach allows them to bypass years-long waits for grid interconnection. Examples include Brookfield’s nuclear tied cloud venture to Nano Nuclear modular reactor studies and Talen Energy’s direct hookups.

Second, the cost pressure on households is drawing Washington’s attention. Grid upgrades required by the AI buildout have become the primary driver behind projected electricity rate increases. The Ratepayer Protection Pledge was signed back in March, which pushed hyperscalers to build, bring, or buy their own power and cover every dollar of the new transmission and distribution infrastructure. 

The White House has also framed rapid AI infrastructure buildout as a national security imperative, leading to a conflict of interests between the demand for new data centers without stressing the grid or consumers. AI has been widely labeled by the White House as necessary for the safety of the country, and is the new modern-day arms race. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 17:55

Goldman Maps Retailer Exposure To Working-Poor Consumers As Gas Soars

With the nationwide average gasoline price accelerating above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level, and the consumer backdrop for low-income households darkening, Goldman analysts published a note on Wednesday identifying which big-box retailers have the greatest exposure to working-poor households.

"Our economists expect spending headwinds from higher inflation to weigh on growth for the rest of the year," Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane wrote in the note. She covered how Goldman analysts raised their Brent forecast for the fourth quarter of this year and the gloomy backdrop facing consumers.

She continued, "Moreover, higher headline inflation is set to erode household spending power, particularly among lower-income households that spend roughly four times as much on gasoline as a share of after-tax income compared to the top quintile."

She explained in more detail:

We expect the bottom-income quintile to lag the aggregate US household with +4.2% DPI growth in 2026 (vs. +4.7% aggregate) as our economists continue to expect tepid job growth. Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits, and now greater exposure to the increase in gasoline prices are cost headwinds to this income cohort. Our pre-savings DCF expectations for the bottom quintile remain unchanged at +0.8% for 2026, well below the +3.7% aggregate growth rate.

Higher energy prices do drive a headwind to our Consumer Discretionary Cash Flow model, and accordingly we estimate that a $10/barrel change in fuel prices equates to a ~18bps impact to consumer spending power, all else equal. The magnitude of the recent, rapid change in fuel prices may drive a ~88bps headwind for consumer discretionary spending power in FY26, if higher fuel prices hold (~$120/barrel). Taking this one step further, we use the breakdown of consumer income cohorts to estimate the impact across the income-quintiles assessed in our 2026 Consumer Outlook, and find a ~225bps potential headwind from the YoY change in crude oil prices (~$120/barrel vs a simple average of ~$70 in 2025) on the lowest-income consumers, or ~135bps headwind at ~$100/barrel. As such, we see an over ~50bps headwind for consumer discretionary spending power for US households in aggregate in 2026, and ~135bps headwind for the bottom-quintile, assuming ~$100/bbl pricing holds. 

With that context in mind, McShane and her team analyzed the demographic exposure of major big-box retailers and found that Dollar General, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, and Dollar Tree are among the retailers most exposed to working-poor households.

Walmart, Five Below, Target, and BJ's Wholesale Club showed more modest exposure, according to the analyst.

"We also note that historically, during periods of elevated gas prices, DG has benefited from its close-proximity store model, which offered a convenient alternative for cost-conscious customers looking to avoid drives," McShane noted.

However, she said, "However, given the rise in digital retail, WMT's membership program Walmart+ may diminish this advantage as customers can now purchase same-day delivery." 

With the national average for gasoline above $4, we have already detailed emerging shifts in consumer behavior at gas stations and convenience stores. Actual demand destruction should set in at $ 5+ gas.

Read:

• Here's What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4

• Here's What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4

Professional subscribers can read the full consumer note at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 17:30

Apple Drops After Mixed Results: America, Europe Revenue Miss; Iphone Sales Disappoint, But China Surges Again

Ahead of today's AAPL earnings report, we've had a mixed picture from Mag 7 earnings so far: GOOGL soared to a record high, MSFT and AMZN both dropped (although they recovered much of their losses throughout the day) and META crashed, all on different reads of their capex. Which leaves AAPL to complete the picture of the big 5 megacaps (with NVDA set to report in a few weeks). As we previewed earlier, focus today will be on how soaring memory prices are impacting the company's profit margin, as well as hearing from new CEO John Ternus.

With that in mind, here is what the company just reported for its fiscal second quarter:

• EPS $2.01 vs. $1.65 y/y, beating estimates of $1.96
• Revenue $111.18 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimates of $109.66 billion 
  • Products revenue $80.21 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimates of $79.26 billion
  • IPhone revenue $56.99 billion, +22% y/y, barely beating estimates of $56.98 billion
  • Mac revenue $8.40 billion, +5.7% y/y, beating estimates of $8.13 billion
  • IPad revenue $6.91 billion, +8% y/y, beating estimates of $6.65 billion
  • Wearables, home and accessories $7.90 billion, +5% y/y, beating estimate $7.72 billion
• Services revenue $30.98 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimate of $30.37 billion

Broken down by product...

... we see that iPhones remain the juggernaut, and coming at $56.99 billion, they just barely beat estimates of $56.98 billion.

While Mac sales beat expectations modestly, pent up demand for the M5 MacBook Air, M5 Pro/Max MacBook Pro and of course the hot-selling MacBook Neo, should have resulted in a bigger beat. Perhaps it’s because the machines didn’t launch until late in the March quarter -- and the memory shortage. 

Looking across product lines, we saw annual growth in every segment, with a more than $10 billion year-over-year jump for the iPhone and a $4 billion increase on services. Growth in the other segments, like the Mac, iPad and wearables/home/accessories, was about $500 million give or take.

Taking a closer look at the Geographic breakdown, a few regions stood out, most notably America and Europe where revenues missed:

• Americas rev. $45.09 billion, +12% y/y, missing estimate $45.82 billion
• Europe revenue $28.06 billion, +15% y/y, missing estimate $29.08 billion
• Japan revenue $8.40 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $7.38 billion
• Rest of Asia Pacific revenue $9.14 billion, +25% y/y, beating estimate $8.76 billion

The revenue miss in the US and Europe will lilkely not be greeted well by the market, even if - for the second quarter in a row - it was offset by a solid beat in China:

• Greater China rev. $20.50 billion, +28% y/y, beating estimate $18.91 billion, even if the beat was smaller than last quarter's Chinese blowout.

Yes: it was all about China, because while sales in the US actually missed for the second quarter in a row, it was that country where no number is ever cooked - pardon the pun - where revenues (mostly iPhone revenues) grew an impressive 28% to $20.5bn, beating estimates of a $18.91bn number...

... yet which in context seems very, very fishy, and makes one wonder if Cook cooked numbers with Xi's help for the second quarter in a row.

Even Bloomberg notes that "China appears to be the key driver of Apple’s (limited) upside this quarter, with strength there likely underpinning the company’s broad-based outperformance."

Last but not least, and in fact first when it comes to profit margins, Services revenue rose 16%...

... to $30.98 billion, beating estimate of $30.37 billion

Going down the income statement: 

• Total operating expenses $18.90 billion, +24% y/y, above estimate $18.47 billion
• Research and development operating expenses $11.42 billion, +34% y/y, above estimate $11 billion
• SG&A operating expense $7.48 billion, +11% y/y, above estimate $7.46 billion
• Gross margin $54.78 billion, +22% y/y, above estimate $53.2 billion
• Cash and cash equivalents $45.57 billion, +62% y/y, below estimate $48.96 billion

Some more details from the press release: 

• IPhone hit a March quarter revenue record, fueled by “extraordinary demand” for the iPhone 17 lineup, Cook said
• New March quarter records for operating cash flow and EPS achieved, CFO Kevan Parekh said
• Generated Nearly $54 Billion in Operating Cash Flow
• Announces new $100 billion stock buyback

Commenting on the quarter, Apple outgoing CEO Tim Cook said that revenue was up primarily due to the “extraordinary” demand for the iPhone 17 line (even though revenue in America and Europe missed). He also cited the MacBook Neo, which he says is “captivating customers all around the world", to wit: 

“Apple is proud to report our best March quarter ever, with revenue of $111.2 billion and double-digit growth across every geographic segment. iPhone achieved a March quarter revenue record, fueled by such extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup. During the quarter, Services achieved yet another all-time record, and we were excited to introduce remarkable new products to our strongest lineup ever. That included the addition of the iPhone 17e and the M4-powered iPad Air, along with the launch of MacBook Neo, which is captivating customers all around the world.”

“Our strong business performance during the March quarter generated over $28 billion in operating cash flow and drove new March quarter records for both operating cash flow and EPS,” said Kevan Parekh, Apple’s CFO. “Continued strong customer demand for our products and services once again helped us achieve a new all-time high for our installed base of active devices across all major product categories and geographic segments.”

Apple did not give the spotlight to John Ternus, the incoming CEO, in this announcement. But we’re sure to hear something about the transition on the earnings call starting at 5 p.m. Eastern time. Still, his fingerprints are all over these results as the hardware chief the last half-decade.

Of note, AAPL - perhaps seeking to rub it into the noses of the cash flow negative hyperscalers who are now blowing all their capex on chips - authorized an additional $100 billion stock buyback.  The company also declared a cash dividend of $0.27 per share of the Company’s common stock, an increase of 4 percent. 

Last but not least, there has been no color on the memory situation and its impact on Apple in this release. We’ll hear more about that on the call. Apple said things would progressively get worse throughout the year. 

“This is a fairly boring report, w/Asia, Services, and margins all bright spots while the top line pressure in the Americas and Europe will be areas of focus (the lack of iPhone upside is a small negative too),” Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge writes in a report. 

Apple stock is muted, down a little over 1% after hours, and a far cry from the big swing that options traders were pricing in.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/30/2026 - 17:07