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Futures Flat Ahead Of CPI, Ceasefire Negotiations

Futures Flat Ahead Of CPI, Ceasefire Negotiations

US equity futures are flat, recovering from an earlier drop, and set to extend a seven-day rally, the longest since October, as investors looked to talks between the US and Iran for signs a fragile truce can hold while bracing for a big jump in today's CPI report (full preview here). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.1%,on track for their biggest weekly advance in almost a year. Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%, its winning streak is the longest since September,  led once again memory stocks while Mag 7 were mixed (NVDA -0.5% and MSFT +0.5%). Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% as Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia expressed optimism about peace talks. Overnight, headlines were mostly quiet as investors continue assessing the negotiation progress between the US and Iran. Hormuz and Lebanon remains the two key focuses. Meanwhile, a BBG headline this morning saying that Ukraine may be near a deal with Putin drove futs modestly higher; gold trades flat around $4,765. Bond yields are unchanged to 1-2bp lower, the 10Y TSY trading at 4.29%; oil is 1% higher to $98.6; base metals are mostly lower. Brent crude was steady at near $96 a barrel but on pace for its steepest weekly loss in nine months. On today's calendar, we have March CPI due at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by factory orders for February and final readings for February durable/cap goods at 10 a.m. University of Michigan Sentiment also due at 10 a.m.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher (Microsoft +0.2%, Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.2%, Amazon +0.2%, Apple -0.3%, Tesla +0.2%, Nvidia -0.1%)

  • CoreWeave (CRWV) gains 4% after Anthropic PBC agreed to rent data center capacity from the company.
  • Docusign (DOCU) slips 1.7% after Citi downgraded the company and other application software stocks to neutral, saying the group they doesn’t have any exciting 12-month catalysts. The other downgraded stocks include Autodesk (ADSK), which is down 1.4%.
  • Kyivstar Group (KYIV) rises 9% after Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia said he sees progress toward a possible peace deal between the two countries.
  • Lumentum (LITE) climbs 5% after the firm said demand from the biggest US tech companies is accelerating. Peer Coherent (COHR) climbs 4%.
  • Organon & Co. (OGN) soars 21% after the Economic Times reported that Sun Pharmaceutical is set to make a $12 billion offer for debt-ridden company. Sun Pharmaceutical called the report speculative in nature.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s ADRs (TSM) are up 2% after the company reported March sales that reinforced how the company is seeing strong AI demand.
  • Tecnoglass (TGLS) slips 2% after the window manufacturer lowered its full-year adjusted Ebitda outlook due to tariffs on certain aluminum-containing products and derivatives.

In other corporate news, an earnings beat by CATL may set the stage for a short squeeze, after a surge in the battery maker’s shares on bets tied to soaring energy prices. Lumentum said demand from the biggest US tech companies for its optical components is accelerating and on track to fill its order books through 2028. AI is also on traders’ radars this Friday. TSMC reported a 35% increase in quarterly revenue, suggesting ongoing global chip demand remains intact. China AI firm Sharetronic procured hundreds of Super Micro systems containing banned high-end Nvidia chips. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell summoned Wall Street bank CEOs to discuss Anthropic’s new AI to discuss cyber risks. 

Anticipation of weekend talks between the US and Iran following this week’s ceasefire agreement are keeping markets on edge. The longest winning run for the S&P 500 since October looks set to be tested as traders prepare for CPI data before attention turns to US-Iran discussions in Islamabad at the weekend. The truce announced on Tuesday remains shaky, with Kuwait reporting large-scale drone attacks on “vital” facilities overnight and accusing Iran and its proxy groups of violating the terms of the agreement.

Israel continued to target towns in south Lebanon, where its parallel campaign against Tehran-backed Hezbollah threatens to undermine negotiations. “I’m not trimming into the weekend,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA. “The direction of travel seems to be to talk rather than to fight.”

The latest tone in markets suggests some optimism negotiators from Washington and Tehran will make progress on longer term de-escalation, despite the remaining points of tension. Whatever the outcome, there are plenty of supply chain bottlenecks and delayed consequences still to work through. Daily commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains close to zero. The “Trillion Dollar War” is weighing on global economic outlooks, note Bloomberg Economists whose global growth tracker – which uses a machine-learning algorithm to extract signals from data for 18 advanced and EM economies – points to an abrupt reversal, after a build-up in momentum at the start of the year. “Investors are hoping for fruitful negotiations,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM. Still, “a swift conclusion will be difficult to achieve, as economic interests prevail on all sides and no one wants to be disadvantaged,” he said.

Oil remains in focus. Saudi Arabia said its production capacity has been reduced by attacks on energy infrastructure. WTI could hold at $100 a barrel - or higher - for longer if disruptions to tanker traffic keep global crude flows constrained, Bloomberg notes pointing to a surge in net long crude futures amid oil’s widening risk premium.

“We believe this could be the beginning of the end, and is presenting an opportunity for investors to focus on pre-war trends and fundamentals,” Bernstein analysts Rupal Agarwal and Cheng Zhang wrote in a note.

Some investors are not convinced that the ceasefire marks the end of trouble for financial markets. Crude remains over $90 a barrel, a level that threatens to drive inflation and suppress economic growth. “I’m not very optimistic at all,” said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer of Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore. “Overall, our sense is that the sustained premium in crude is not reflected yet in profit margins, and that ought to contribute to a higher equity risk premium.”

The March CPI report is expected to show gasoline prices drove the fastest monthly increase in the headline gauge in almost four years, while core CPI will likely remain tame.  The Cleveland Fed nowcast point to headline CPI of around 3.25% Y/Y in March (vs an actual 2.4% in February), though core inflation should be steadier at around 2.5% Y/Y, suggesting the March strength is likely to come from fuel and other energy-related components rather than a broad-based underlying inflation surge. Wall street upside estimates are even more aggressive, with median expectations for headline CPI surging from 0.3% MoM to 0.9%, and from 2.4% to 3.4% YoY. (Our full preview is here). 

“Headline risk pertaining to the war remains far and away the biggest driver of volatility,” Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note. “However, inflation data also presents meaningful event risk.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained 0.8% as Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia expressed optimism about peace talks, stocks are led by construction and media. Markets received an additional boost from news of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, though that dented defense stocks. Italian luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli jumped after impressive results, while Sodexo’s disappointing guidance weighed on its stock.  Here are the biggest movers Friday: 

  • Brunello Cucinelli gains as much as 6.6% after the Italian luxury clothing company reported solid first-quarter earnings thanks to strong retail sales, which according to analysts, confirms the company’s stand-out position in the sector
  • Reply shares rose as much as 8.4% in Milan trading, the most in a year, after the Italian digital services firm announced that it would buy back ordinary shares worth as much as €550m
  • Holcim rises as much as 3.1% after Goldman Sachs upgrades the Swiss building materials company to buy from neutral, seeing an attractive entry point following the stock’s decline this year
  • Tomra gains as much as 7.1% after Pareto Securities reiterated its buy recommendation on the Norwegian recycling equipment firm, saying the blue-sky scenario related to changes in the European deposit-return scheme is materializing
  • Instalco gains as much as 9.2%, the most since February, after both Pareto Securities and SEB raised its recommendations on the Swedish building installation and maintenance firm to buy from hold
  • Plejd shares gain as much as 16% to hit a fresh record high after earnings from the Swedish electrical equipment maker surpassed Bloomberg-compiled consensus expectations across all metrics, with first-quarter Ebit 49% ahead
  • Sodexo shares plunge as much as 20%, to the lowest level since 2011, after the French food services company issued weaker-than-expected guidance for organic revenue growth and underlying operating margin
  • DEME Group shares fall as much as 8.8%, the most in a year, after ING lowers its rating to hold from buy, citing headwinds it sees lying ahead for earnings at the Belgian engineering firm
  • Leonardo shares fall as Italy’s government picked a former executive at the aerospace and defense company, Lorenzo Mariani, to replace Roberto Cingolani as CEO. Mariani currently works for missile maker MBDA

Asian stocks advanced, posting their biggest weekly gain since November 2022, as a ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a relief rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7%, taking its weekly increase to 6%. Chipmakers TSMC and SK Hynix were among biggest boosts to the gauge Friday. Indonesia’s benchmark jumped 2%, leading gains around the region, followed by Taiwan, mainland China and South Korea. The week’s advance signals a return of risk appetite across Asian markets after steep losses in March on concerns over the war. Still, uncertainty remains over the chances for lasting peace and the trajectory for oil prices.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.1%, snapping a four-day decline. The gauge has still dropped 1.2% this week, headed for its worst performance since January. The yen edged lower against the dollar; Japanese bonds dropped amid expectations for a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama says authorities are prepared to take action on all fronts in markets, considering the impact of currency moves on households and the economy.

In rates, US treasuries were on track to snap a four-day run of gains as investors await March US inflation data due later Friday to see the impact of higher oil prices from the Iran war. Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, with yields off session highs in early US trading ahead of March CPI report expected to show the biggest monthly headline increase in almost four years, driven by gasoline prices. US yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper across a slightly steeper curve, 10-year by 1.8bp near 4.29%; German and UK counterparts lag by 3bp and 4bp respectively. In Europe, bonds slide as traders add to rate-hike bets again, with European and UK 10-year yields rising between four and seven basis points and German 30-year yields hitting the highest since 2011. Ahead of CPI data, Fed-dated OIS contracts price in around 6 basis points of easing by the end of the year and fully price in a quarter-point move by September 2027

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are little changed after erasing a 2.6% increase. Brent trades close to $97/barrel and WTI around $98. Gold prices drifting lower to around $4,750/oz.

The US economic data calendar includes March CPI (8:30am), February factory orders, April preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and March federal budget balance (2pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini little changed, Nasdaq 100 mini little changed, Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.2%, CAC 40 +0.3%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.29%
  • VIX -0.1 points at 19.43
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1200.13, euro little changed at $1.1704
  • WTI crude +0.8% at $98.66/barrel

Top Overnight News

President Trump on Thursday demanded Iran stop charging tolls for tankers to cross the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran's supreme leader promised the country would control the crucial waterway. Axios

The truce remained shaky, as Kuwait reported overnight drone attacks. Israel is preparing for talks with Lebanon but said it’ll continue strikes on Hezbollah, with Trump’s push for an exit straining relations. BBG

President Donald Trump told NBC News on Thursday that he was “very optimistic” a peace deal with Iran was within reach as a diplomatic delegation led by Vice President JD Vance prepared to head to Pakistan for high-stakes talks aimed at ending the nearly six-week conflict. NBC

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s top negotiator with Russia said he sees Ukraine nearing a peace deal with Vladimir Putin. “They all understand the war needs to end,” Kyrylo Budanov said in an April 4 interview with Bloomberg. BBG

While every administration crafts its own defense strategy, Trump’s second is making the unusual move of discarding a policy that was formulated by his first. That bipartisan approach sanctioned by Trump 1.0 characterized China as the most consequential U.S. adversary. The Trump 2.0 framework is instead a seismic shift in U.S. policy, trade practices and rhetoric toward Beijing driven by a new mantra: Don’t rock the boat. WSJ

China made a rare diplomatic foray in the Iran war, nudging Tehran to agree to sit down for talks with the U.S. Beijing’s role wasn’t decisive, but Chinese leader Xi Jinping now has something valuable: diplomatic capital with President Trump. WSJ

China's factory-gate prices rose for the first time in more than three years in March, in an early sign that the war in Iran is feeding cost pressures into the world’s second-largest economy. China’s PPI came in a bit firmer than anticipated at +0.5% Y/Y (vs. the Street +0.4% and up from -0.9% in Feb) while the CPI ran a touch cooler at +1% (vs. the Street +1.1% and down from +1.3% in Feb). RTRS

Trump administration reportedly considering a new crackdown on Chinese telecom Carriers' US operations, according to the agency.

Artificial intelligence lab Anthropic is exploring the possibility of designing its own chips, three sources said, as the company and ‌its rivals respond to a shortage of AI chips needed to power and develop more advanced AI systems. Also, Scott Bessent and Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street CEOs to warn of potential cyber risks from Anthropic’s new AI model and others. RTRS, BBG

CPI Preview: We expect a 0.28% increase in March core CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.69% (vs. +2.7% consensus). We expect a 0.87% increase in headline CPI (vs. +1.0% consensus), reflecting sharply higher energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.23% increase in core PCE in March. Goldman

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the gains on Wall Street, where markets extended on the ceasefire-driven momentum, although strikes continued in the region and Israel declared it will keep striking Lebanon ahead of talks next week. Furthermore, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a virtual standstill, and US President Trump criticised Iran on the Strait of Hormuz and warned it to stop charging tolls in the strait. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and energy, while nearly all sectors were lacklustre, aside from the mild resilience seen in real estate and financials. Nikkei 225 rallied with index heavyweight Fast Retailing among the top gainers after its shares surged to fresh record highs following strong earnings results, while participants also reflected on PPI data, which ultimately printed mixed, but showed an acceleration for both the M/M and Y/Y figures. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were higher amid some strength in tech, property and auto stocks, while the latest inflation data for China was mixed as CPI printed softer-than-expected, but PPI slightly topped forecasts and showed a return to growth in factory gate prices for the first time in more than three years.

Top Asian News

  • Japan's Finance Minister Katayama declines to comment on FX levels and said the government is prepared to take decisive action in markets, but will not elaborate on future potential measures. said: Speculation is intensifying in oil, futures, and currency markets.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama say unable to gauge the effect of a food sales tax reduction on prices at this stage and not in a position to discuss steps against possible oil supply deficits. Will co-chair a session on critical minerals on the margins of the G7 meeting. Private credit will be on the G7 agenda but no significant crisis is seen and Japan has no substantial exposure. G7 finance ministers unanimously agree the Middle East situation should not be extended.
  • South Korean parties agree on an extra budget size of KRW 26.2tln, according to Yonhap.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) are gaining heading into the US-Iran talks at the weekend. If indices can hold onto their gains, it would be the first Friday since the Iran war began that stocks would end in the green. The complex has been fairly choppy this morning, with some pressure seen alongside a slight bid in the crude complex, but then reversed those losses after reports suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin. European sectors are broadly in the green. Media, Health Care and Technology tops the sector pile while Basic Resources and Travel and Leisure lags. The tech sector has been given a boost after TSMC reported YTD sales that beat estimates, supporting the likes of ASML and STMicroelectronics. On the other hand, Travel and Leisure is under pressure following earnings by Sodexo, in which the Co. cut its 2026 organic revenue growth forecast, citing ongoing execution challenges. US equity futures (ES/NQ U/C, RTY -0.1%) are posting modest losses ahead of the US CPI later, in which headline inflation is expected at 3.3% Y/Y, rising from 2.4% while core inflation also expected to rise to 2.7% Y/Y from 2.5%.

Top European News

  • US President Trump endorses Hungarian PM Orban, reiterates that he's a truly strong and powerful leader with a proven track record delivering phenomenal results.
  • UK retail footfall returned to growth in March as a number of visits to stores comprising of main street shops, retail parks and shopping centres for the five weeks to April 4th rose 2.4% Y/Y, according to the British Retail Consortium.

FX

  • Energy prices continue to dominate price action across G10 currencies, with USD leading. Focus remains on geopolitical updates, none of which overnight did much to spur crude benchmarks ahead of US/Iran talks scheduled this weekend. This morning, newsflow has been light, though there were reports that Iran said no talks would happen until attacks [on Lebanon] stop. US CPI is due at 13:30 London time; today's release should not be a game-changer for the Fed unless the print significantly exceeds expectations, policy will likely be dictated after members assess the second round effects of the Middle East conflict in future months' prints.
  • Do note that the USD saw some mild selling pressure to session lows of 98.79 (vs 99.00 peak), after reports suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin. But it is worth highlighting that the interview was conducted on April 4th, while recent rhetoric via Ukrainian President Zelensky suggested that Putin is not genuinely seeking peace.
  • EUR will look to Sunday's Hungarian election (Full Preview), where polling suggests opposition support Tisza will take power, though still unclear whether the opposition will gain a supermajority or a simple majority. Desks suggest a supermajority sees HUF and EUR strength, while a simple majority may see initial HUF gains and potential EUR strength, "likely to be pared". EUR/USD marginally surpassed the 1.17 level with a session high at 1.1702. Elsewhere for the single currency, German inflation was left unrevised at 1.1% on a monthly basis.
  • For NOK, Norwegian core inflation this morning surprised to the downside, but still remains elevated on a 3% handle, in line with the Norges Bank's forecast. With markets shrugging off the modest gains in crude this European morning, the net energy exporter's currency is flat/modestly lower against EUR within a 11.0839-11.1194 range.
  • Kiwi is the worst-performing G10 currency against a stronger buck, after the rally in the pair stalled just above 0.5870. Likely an element of profit-taking after gains over the past two days, with markets continuing to price 75bps of hikes by year end, unchanged from Thursday's close. Additionally, key metals trade 1-2% lower - as such, AUD also underperforming against the greenback.

Fixed Income

  • Fixed benchmarks are flat/mixed this morning, as the complex awaits US CPI later today and heading into the weekend, where US and Iranian officials are to meet for peace talks in Pakistan. While preparations are proceeding "full steam ahead" in the Pakistani capital, both sides have issued warnings that could still derail the meeting. Heading into the confab, US President Trump said he is optimistic that an Iran peace deal is within reach, but warned that if no deal is reached, “it is going to be very painful”.
  • USTs are currently flat, with price action lacklustre heading into US CPI. Currently trades within a 111-05 to 111-11+ range, with the 2yr yield hovering near familiar levels at 3.795%, but still well off the extremes seen during the heights of the Iranian war. Traders are currently awaiting the US inflation report, where analysts expect consumer prices to rise by 0.9% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and the annual rate to jump to 3.3% Y/Y (prev. 2.4%); core inflation is expected to rise 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%). Officials say inflation remains too high, with upside risks if oil shocks spill into core prices and expectations, although expectations are still seen as well anchored at this point.
  • Recapping the action this week, USTs are currently higher by 16 ticks vs the Monday open, with strength facilitated by ceasefire related optimism – however, US paper has pulled back from highs given the fragile nature of the two-week pause so far. US 2s10s is near enough unchanged since the start of the week, but did experience some steepening amidst the initial ceasefire related optimism.
  • Bunds and Gilts are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, with both currently just off session lows. Earlier, Final German Inflation was unrevised in March, and had little impact on Bunds this morning. The action this week across Bunds is reflective of the easing tensions in the Middle East, with the 2yr yield now residing around 2.56% vs the Tuesday open at 2.65%. This has also been reflected in ECB pricing – with money markets fully pricing in an ECB rate hike in April towards the start of the week, now, only 6bps. The temporary ceasefire will allow policymakers to bide their time and assess whether second-round inflation effects filter through into the economy – markets still pricing in two hikes by year-end.

Commodities

  • Oil rose for a second consecutive session after Saudi Arabia said attacks on energy infrastructure had reduced its production capacity, with Brent climbing above USD 96/bbl. Despite the rebound, both benchmarks remain on course for their largest weekly loss since June, following Tuesday’s ceasefire announcement. Middle East situation aside, a piece in Bloomberg suggested that Ukraine’s top aide Budanov reportedly saw Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin – though this interview was conducted on April 4th. Nonetheless, this spurred some pressure in Brent Jun’26, falling to a session low of USD 96.03/bbl before paring back towards USD 97/bbl mark, with gains currently around USD 1/bbl.
  • Ahead, the focus is on weekend talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan. The diplomatic picture remains complicated, however. US President Trump said he was "optimistic" about a deal but threatened Tehran over reported fees being levied on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran was doing a "poor job" of allowing energy supplies to flow despite ceasefire commitments. He also asked Israeli PM Netanyahu to scale back attacks on Lebanon, amid concerns the fighting could undermine negotiations - a view echoed by both Iran and ceasefire mediator Pakistan, which have described Israel's Lebanon offensive as a truce violation.
  • Spot gold trades subdued on either side USD 4,750/oz (USD 4,731-4,780/oz), but on track for a third straight weekly gain, supported by central bank buying and diplomatic hopes. Critical Metals’ CEO cautioned that bullion could face pressure if oil prices rebound materially, stoking inflation concerns and rate expectations.
  • Copper is flat in indecisive trade with broader base metals mixed. 3M LME copper currently trades in a 12,641.00- 12,772.87/t range. In data, China’s factory deflation ended after more than three years, with PPI rising 0.5% Y/Y in March (exp. 0.4%), as surging energy costs snapped the deflationary streak.
  • US offers 30mln barrels in crude oil exchange from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as part of IEA coordinate release.
  • Japanese PM Takaichi said to release about 20 days of oil stockpiles in May.
  • China allows state oil firms to release their reserves amid US-Iran conflict.
  • TotalEnergies (TTE FP) said it shut down SATORP refinery in Saudi Arabia as safety precaution following processing train damage.
  • EU and US nearing a critical minerals deal to "combat Chinese control", Bloomberg reported.
  • Venezuela passes mining law as Acting President Rodriguez courts investment, according to Bloomberg.

Central Banks

  • US Senate Banking panel is no longer intending to conduct a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh next week with the delay due to paperwork.
  • BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said no strict definition on what constitutes stagflation, adds must be vigilant to chance Middle East conflict, which if prolonged, could work to weigh on the economy and push up inflation. Doesn't think Japan's economy is in stagflation. Face dilemma if prolonged Middle East conflict pushes down growth and accelerates inflation. Will make appropriate decisions on price target and will make the appropriate decision at each meeting. Will take most appropriate policy to stably hit the inflation target, considering scale and duration of shocks and broader economic environment.
  • BoK maintains the Base Rate at 2.50%, as expected.
  • BoK said rate decision was unanimous and that Middle East conflict poses risks to growth. Growth likely to be below 2% this year. To thoroughly assess external and internal conditions including the Middle East situation. To closely monitor impact on inflation, growth and financial stability. Necessary to remain cautious about FX volatility. Inflation likely to be significantly above 2.2% this year. Raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.8% and CPI forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%.
  • BoK Governor Rhee said growth path to hinge on the Middle East and trade conditions, adds board members are in wait-and-see mode as Middle East conflict situation is too volatile. It is too early to judge the direction of the Middle East shock, stating that a temporary shock does not warrant a rate response, although a prolonged shock may require a policy response. Iran war has a bigger impact on inflation and growth outlook in South Korea than the war in Ukraine. To assess the size and duration of the Middle East war impact. Too early to discuss a rate hike amid Middle East volatility. Board needs to watch the course of Middle East negotiations first. Asian economies more vulnerable to supply-side impact from Iran war compared to European economies.

Geopolitics: Iran

  • US President Trump posted "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonourable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!".
  • US President Trump posted "There are reported that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!".
  • US President Trump criticises WSJ for stating he declared premature victory in Iran, adds there is nothing premature about it, also said because of him, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and oil will start flowing very quickly.
  • Iran reiterates no talks will happen until attacks stop and no delegation is heading to Pakistan. However, it was reported that the Iranian delegation arrived in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad late on Thursday for upcoming talks, with the delegation led by Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf.
  • Informed source told Tasnim that news in some media about the arrival of Iranian negotiating teams to Islamabad to negotiate with Americans is completely false, adds until US fulfils commitments negotiations are suspended.
  • Iranian delegation has not yet reached Islamabad despite plans for the first round of negotiations today, Pakistan media report.
  • IRGC affirms Iran's armed forces have absolutely not carried out any launches towards any country during the ceasefire hours up to this moment.
  • UK Government said UK PM Starmer and US Present Trump spoke this evening, and agreed there is a ceasefire in place, agreement to open the Strait, and we are at the next stage of finding a resolution. Discussed the need for a practical plan to get shipping moving again as quickly as possible and agreed to speak again soon.
  • Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei may deliver address to the nation soon, TASS reported.
  • Israeli Chief of Staff Zamir said will continue the war in Lebanon, can return to the war against Iran at any moment and with greater force.
  • Israel is working to continue the war on Lebanon within two days and 5 more days before responding to American pressures, Al Jazeera reported citing Ma'ariv sources.
  • Israeli airstrike targets Habbouch town in southern Lebanon, while reported also noted that siren sound in Metula, Israel.
  • Iranian media reported of intense activity of hostile drones in Iranian cities Tehran, Parachin, Tabriz, and other cities.
  • Six rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Al Jalil in northern Israel.
  • Air raid sirens have sounded in the Mizgav Am and Metula settlements in northern Israel.
  • Air raid alarms were activated in Tel Aviv, while Israeli military said Hezbollah launched a missile at Israel which set off air raid alarms.
  • Warning sirens sound in Kiryat Shimona and surrounding areas, according to Mehr News.
  • Shipping traffic in Strait of Hormuz was down on Thursday as just six ships travelled through the strait with two oil tankers among the six ships, according to CBS.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky's top aide/negotiator Budanov reportedly sees Ukraine nearing a deal with Russian President Putin, Bloomberg reports; interview conducted on April 4th.
  • Russia's Kremlin confirms envoy Dmitriev’s trip to the US, says Dmitriev is not negotiating on a Ukraine settlement.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Chinese President Xi said China will never tolerate Taiwan independence, CCTV reported.
  • North Korea's Foreign Minister tells Chinese counterpart that ties between the two countries are developing into an elevated new phase.
  • China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it is China's steadfast stance to strengthen China-North Korea relations, irrespective of any shift in the international landscape, according to KCNA. North Korea has achieved results despite suppression by the US and Western powers.
  • Cuba's President said asked the US to engage in a dialogue without condition and not demand changes from our political system.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: United States Mar CPI MoM, est. 0.94%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 am: United States Mar Core CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30 am: United States Mar CPI YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 2.4%
  • 8:30 am: United States Mar Core CPI YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.5%
  • 10:00 am: United States Feb Factory Orders, est. -0.2%, prior 0.1%
  • 10:00 am: United States Apr P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 51.5, prior 53.3
  • 10:00 am: United States Feb F Durable Goods Orders, est. -1.4%, prior -1.4%
  • 10:00 am: United States Feb F Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.8%
  • 2:00 pm: United States Mar Federal Budget Balance, est. -153.25b, prior -160.53b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The market tone has remained positive this morning, with oil prices steady and fresh gains for global equities ahead of the US-Iran talks in Islamabad tomorrow. Indeed, the S&P 500 (+0.62%) has now risen for 7 consecutive sessions, with futures on the index (+0.01%) just about pointing towards an 8th gain today. Moreover, oil prices have been steady overnight too, with Brent at $96.23/bbl currently, slightly beneath its levels 24 hours ago. And notably, the VIX index (-1.55pts) closed at just 19.49pts yesterday, falling beneath its pre-strike level of 19.86pts on February 27. So for markets at least, the financial stress has continued to ease before the weekend talks.

The main catalyst for that risk-on move was the announcement yesterday that Israel would start direct talks with Lebanon "as soon as possible", and President Trump said shortly after that Israel was “scaling back” its operations in Lebanon. That’s significant because Lebanon has been a potential key stumbling block around the ceasefire, with Israel issuing evacuation orders in eight neighbourhoods of Beirut yesterday, whilst Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the attacks were a “clear violation” of the ceasefire agreement. So those hopes for a de-escalation in Lebanon helped ease concerns that the broader ceasefire could fall apart ahead of this weekend’s talks.

In general, the tone around the US-Iran talks has remained positive, with Trump telling NBC news yesterday that he was “very optimistic” a peace deal was within reach. He also added that Iran’s leaders “talk much differently when you’re at a meeting than they do to the press. They’re much more reasonable”. That said, he made a couple of more negative posts about Iran yesterday evening, warning that Iran “better not be” charging fees to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that “if they are, they better stop now!” And just over an hour later, he then posted that “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!”

Nevertheless, markets in Asia have posted further gains overnight, with all the major indices advancing. That includes the Nikkei (+1.77%), the KOSPI (+1.81%), the CSI 300 (+1.18%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.63%) and the Hang Seng (+0.60%). There’ve also been a few stories from the region, with China’s PPI inflation moving back into positive territory in March for the first time since September 2022. The latest release showed PPI at +0.5% (vs. +0.4% expected), although CPI fell back slightly to +1.0% (vs. +1.1% expected). Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea held rates at 2.5% as expected, although their statement said that CPI this year “is expected to exceed considerably the February forecast of 2.2%”.

Against that backdrop, oil prices have been pretty steady, with Brent crude currently up +0.23% overnight at $96.23/bbl. That builds on a modest gain yesterday, when Brent had risen +1.23% ot $95.92/bbl. Even at the intraday high yesterday, shortly before the news on the Israel-Lebanon talks broke, Brent only got up to $99.50/bbl, remaining beneath the $100/bbl mark throughout. So there’s been a clear shift in sentiment since the two-week ceasefire announcement, when oil prices were back at $110/bbl, with the overall market tone still a lot more confident than it was at the start of the week. In addition, 12-month Brent futures have continued to fall, with a -0.17% decline yesterday to $76.74/bbl, and a further -0.30% decline overnight to $76.51/bbl.

Although oil prices have come down since the ceasefire announcement, inflation concerns are still pretty high right now, meaning that all eyes will be on today’s US CPI print for March. That’s an important one, because it’s the first to cover the period since the Iran war began on February 28, and we know from the Euro Area flash CPI print that the energy price spike is now clearly visible in the data. For today, our US economists are expecting a notable jump given the surge in gasoline prices, with monthly headline CPI rising to +0.95% in March. If realised, that would be the highest monthly print since June 2022, and it would also push the year-on-year rate back up to 3.4%, which we haven’t seen since early 2024. Then for core CPI, they expect a smaller uptick given it excludes energy and food prices, with the monthly core print up to +0.33%, and the year-on-year measure at +2.7%. 

Ahead of that release, US markets had a volatile session yesterday as the geopolitical headlines came through. Ultimately however, the prospect of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon led to a recovery through the session, with the S&P 500 (+0.62%) closing at a one-month high. In fact, it was the index’s 7th consecutive gain, which left it less than 2.5% beneath its record high from late-January. The Magnificent 7 (+1.58%) led that advance yesterday, but there were gains across the board, while software & services (-2.18%) and energy (-1.19%) being the only industry groups in the S&P 500 to post major declines. Moreover, the geopolitical news meant investors grew more confident that the Fed might still cut rates this year, with markets pricing in a 33% likelihood of a cut by the December meeting by yesterday’s close. That’s the highest probability of a 2026 cut in the last three weeks, which helped 10yr Treasury yields (-1.7bps) to come down to 4.28%.

Earlier in Europe, markets had seen a relative underperformance, with bonds and equities paring back their very strong gains from the Wednesday session. In part, that was driven by more concerns about the European inflation outlook, given its relative exposure to higher oil prices, and the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+12.2bps) moved back up to 3.23% by the close. So that led to a pickup in yields across the board, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.4bps), OATs (+3.3bps) and BTPs (+3.1bps) all moving higher. And there was a decent pullback for equities as well, with the STOXX 600 (-0.15%) and the DAX (-1.14%) both losing ground.

Finally, we did get a fresh batch of US data yesterday, although much of it was backward looking for the period before the Iran conflict began. The main highlight was the PCE inflation for February, which is the Fed’s target measure. That came in as expected, with headline and core PCE both at +0.4% on the month, in line with consensus. So for headline PCE, that kept the year-on-year measure at +2.8%, whilst core PCE fell back a tenth to +3.0%. Or in other words, inflation was still lingering above the Fed’s 2% target even before the latest energy shock. Otherwise, we also had the weekly initial jobless claims, which rose by more than expected to 219k in the week ending April 4 (vs. 210k expected). And looking even further back, Q4 GDP growth was revised down again in the third estimate, with the latest reading showing an annualised rate of just +0.5% (vs. +0.7% in the second estimate).

Looking at the day ahead now, US data releases include the March CPI print, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April, and factory orders for February. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 08:25

Adam Back Says Quantum Threat To Bitcoin Is Decades Away, Urges Gradual Migration To Post-Quantum Security

Adam Back Says Quantum Threat To Bitcoin Is Decades Away, Urges Gradual Migration To Post-Quantum Security

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Blockstream CEO Adam Back pushed back on concerns that quantum computing poses an imminent threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, arguing that current progress in the field remains far from the level required to break real-world encryption.

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, Back noted that much of today’s quantum research is still in its early experimental phase. He pointed to the limited capabilities of existing quantum hardware, which often lacks full error correction and has only demonstrated trivial computations.

“The biggest calculation it’s performed is factoring 21 into 7 times 3,” he said, emphasizing that today’s machines remain closer to laboratory prototypes than practical computing systems.

While recent academic work has highlighted potential algorithmic improvements, Back argued that these advances do not yet translate into meaningful hardware capability. 

As a result, he said, the prospect of quantum computers capable of threatening Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography remains “decades off,” though he acknowledged uncertainty around exact timelines.

Earlier today, Adam Back was named by the New York Times as the most credible candidate for Satoshi Nakamoto based on stylometric analysis of early cypherpunk writings, but Back and other experts strongly denied the claim, noting there is no hard evidence linking him to Bitcoin’s creation.

Bitcoin should prepare for quantum computing risks

Despite that long horizon, Back stressed that the Bitcoin ecosystem should begin preparing now. He advocated for a gradual migration path toward quantum-resistant signature schemes, giving users and custodians ample time to update keys and infrastructure without disruption. 

He noted that Blockstream’s research team has been actively working on post-quantum approaches and has already contributed implementations to Liquid, a Bitcoin layer-two network that has historically served as a testing ground for new features.

Back also referenced recent progress in standardization efforts, pointing to the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s approval of post-quantum cryptography standards in late 2024 as a key milestone that could accelerate industry adoption.

Beyond quantum computing, Back dismissed concerns that artificial intelligence or artificial general intelligence pose structural risks to Bitcoin, characterizing AI instead as a productivity tool that can assist researchers and engineers rather than compromise cryptographic systems.

Shifting to Bitcoin’s global role, Back described the asset as best understood as “digital gold,” coexisting alongside national monetary systems rather than replacing them. He pointed to ongoing sovereign interest in Bitcoin, including debates around national reserves and monetary frameworks in countries such as El Salvador, as evidence of gradual institutional adoption. He also referenced discussions in Switzerland about monetary reform and the historical appeal of gold-backed standards.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 07:20

Largest Winemaker In America Turns To Hard Liquor As Young People Drinking Less

Largest Winemaker In America Turns To Hard Liquor As Young People Drinking Less

E. & J. Gallo Winery, the largest wine producer in the United States and the world by volume, has completed a major pivot into hard liquor. The family-owned giant finalized its acquisition of iconic Kentucky bourbon brand Four Roses from Japan’s Kirin Holdings in a deal valued at up to $775 million. The move comes as the U.S. wine industry grapples with steep declines in sales and a generational shift away from traditional wine - especially among younger Americans.

The transaction, which closed on April 2, 2026, returns Four Roses - which was founded in 1888 and long regarded as one of the most respected premium bourbons - to American ownership for the first time in 83 years. Gallo’s chief commercial officer, Britt West, called the brand “one of the most respected bourbons in the world  defined by heritage and craftsmanship," adding "We are committed to upholding Four Roses’ quality and building the brand as a cornerstone of our portfolio through increased consumer and trade engagement, innovation, and global expansion." 

The existing Four Roses team, including master distiller Brent Elliott, will remain in place. The brand’s first release under new ownership - a boutique 100-proof bourbon - is expected to hit shelves by May.

The timing is no coincidence. Just two months before the deal closed, Gallo laid off approximately 93–100 workers and permanently shuttered its large Ranch Winery production facility in Napa Valley’s St. Helena.

Louis M. Martini Winery in St. Helena, pictured in 2022, is one of the locations impacted by Gallo's layoffs. Jessica Christian/The Chronicle

The cuts also hit other premium labels, including the Louis M. Martini Winery and Orin Swift Tasting Room. Earlier, the company closed its Courtside Cellars facility in San Luis Obispo County, letting go of 47 workers.

Gallo’s struggles mirror a broader crisis in American wine. Overall alcohol consumption in the U.S. has hit a historic low: just 54% of adults reported drinking in 2025, down from 62% in 2023 - the lowest level in Gallup’s nearly 90-year tracking.

Younger drinkers are leading the exodus. Only about 50% of Americans aged 18 to 34 said they drink alcohol in the latest Gallup poll, a sharp acceleration of a decade-long trend. Health-conscious Baby Boomers are also cutting back on wine. In their place, many consumers - particularly younger ones - are choosing spirits, ready-to-drink cocktails, and lower-alcohol or non-alcoholic alternatives.

Gallo, which already sells popular spirits such as New Amsterdam vodka, E&J brandy, and the blockbuster canned cocktail brand High Noon, is betting big that premium bourbon can help offset the wine slump. Four Roses, the eighth-largest bourbon producer globally and a consistent award winner, gives Gallo a strong foothold in the faster-growing spirits category and international markets.

Kirin, meanwhile, is exiting the spirits business to focus on other growth areas. For Gallo, the purchase is a clear signal: when wine demand shrinks, the world’s biggest winemaker isn’t doubling down on grapes - it’s turning to barrels.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 06:55

Viral Ad In Sweden Gets It All Wrong...

Viral Ad In Sweden Gets It All Wrong...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a jaw-dropping display of reality inversion, Sweden’s state-owned public transport company SL has rolled out a new advert that casts loud, obnoxious white women as the problem on buses while depicting black men as the silent, long-suffering victims politely minding their own business.

The short video, now going viral, shows a smiling blonde woman named “Anita” glued to her phone watching TikTok at full blast with no headphones, laughing and disrupting everyone around her.

It then cuts to a young black man named “Samir” quietly using his phone with headphones, looking visibly annoyed as he adjusts them and glances her way. On-screen text reads: “Anita älskar Tiktok” (“Anita loves TikTok”) and “Samir också. Med hörlurar” (“Samir too. With headphones”).

Yeah, because this always happens like this on buses and trains doesn’t it.

The official campaign is designed to push “good manners” on public transport. Yet instead of reflecting the well-known cultural differences in public behavior, it flips the script entirely to hammer home the approved narrative: native Swedes (especially white women) are the rude ones, while migrants, or those with migrant backgrounds, are the model citizens.

This latest stunt comes just weeks after we covered a near-identical case of woke hypocrisy in the UK. In February, Transport for London’s “Act Like a Friend” campaign produced multiple ads showing harassment on public transport. One featured a black teenage boy verbally harassing a white girl on a bus. 

The Advertising Standards Authority banned that specific clip after just one complaint, ruling it “perpetuated a negative racial stereotype about black men as perpetrators of threatening behaviour” and was “irresponsible” and “likely to cause serious offence.” 

Ads in the same campaign that showed white men as the harassers sailed through without issue.

Several other recent transport ads have also depicted white men as sexual aggressors, with their victims almost always being ‘diverse’.

The pattern is now crystal clear across Europe. European authorities will censor any depiction that dares show minority crime or bad behavior – even when it is part of a broader public safety message – but they happily fund propaganda that paints native Europeans as the villains. White people must be the problem. Always. No exceptions.

The SL ad arrives at a time when Sweden’s generous immigration policies have already transformed once-peaceful cities. Public transport in Stockholm and Malmö has seen rising tensions, fights, and harassment – issues frequently tied to imported cultural norms around volume, respect for personal space, and women. Yet instead of addressing root causes, the state chooses to gaslight its own citizens with cartoonish role reversals.

Europe’s elite are not interested in integration or honest conversation. They are committed to a top-down cultural replacement project that requires constant propaganda to paper over the cracks. When the public sees the truth every day on the bus or train, the state simply rewrites the script.

The game is wearing thin. People are fed up with being told to ignore their own eyes and lived experience in favour of state-approved fiction.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 06:30

Iran Ceasefire Allows For Netanyahu's Corruption Trial To Finally Resume

Iran Ceasefire Allows For Netanyahu's Corruption Trial To Finally Resume

Israel is lifting its state of emergency given that the Iran ceasefire appears to be holding, and with that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial will resume in the coming days, according to Reuters.

"With the lifting of the state of emergency and the return of the judicial system to work, hearings will resume as usual," a statement from the Israeli courts confirms.

via AFP

Hearings are scheduled to take place from Sunday through Wednesday. Of course, the fragile truce could collapse at any moment - after Netanyahu, along with Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, have pushed to extend Israel's wars. But normalcy is returning to Israel, and sirens are no longer constantly blaring out. Even Ben Gurion international airport is fully reopened.

Netanyahu has long been accused, even within Israel, of seeking to prolong Israel's 'multi-front' wars in order to permanently delay the corruption trial and ensure his time in power is extended.

The trial focuses on three corruption cases - including charges of fraud and breach of trust, as well as charges of bribery.

The allegations range from illegally receiving expensive gifts based on political favors, to quid pro quo agreements with some Israeli media sources for more favorable coverage, to authorizing telecom-related regulatory decisions to benefit friends and allies.

Israeli Shekel Closes at Highest Level Since November 1995 on Iran Ceasefire:

Netanyahu was first indicted in 2019 following years of investigation. The trial began in 2020 and faced repeated delays, including interruptions tied to the Gaza war that began in October 2023.

President Trump has on several occasions called the whole legal saga "politically motivated" and asserted that the prime minister been through a "Horror Show". He's asked for Netanyahu to be pardoned, calling it a "witch hunt".

Iran's Foreign Minister meanwhile used this development on the resumption of the trial to troll both Israel and the US...

Israel's President Isaac Herzog does have the power to grant a pardon, but has so far resisted pressures from Washington.

His office has only indicated justice ministry’s pardons department will be busy collecting opinions and will submit them to the president’s legal adviser, who will eventually issue a recommendation, in a non-committal response.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 05:45

Revealed: All Members Of UK Government's 'Anti-Muslim Hostility' Group Have Islamist Links

Revealed: All Members Of UK Government's 'Anti-Muslim Hostility' Group Have Islamist Links

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The UK Labour government’s new definition of “anti-Muslim hostility” – rebranded from “Islamophobia” – is being shaped by a working group where every single member has links to Islamist organisations.

The details are exposed in the Free Speech Union’s latest investigative briefing which highlights ties between the group members and the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) and Muslim Engagement and Development (MEND), groups that governments since 2009 have refused to engage with due to their extreme views. 

One member, Baroness Gohir, tweeted in support of Hamas in 2014. Another stood for the far-left, Islamist-supporting Respect Party.

As the Free Speech Union states: “In a free society, no religion should enjoy greater protection than others — nor be shielded from legitimate criticism and challenge.”

The FSU adds: “This group was stacked with members already sympathetic to such a definition.” And with the government yet to appoint a new Islamophobia tsar, “there is deep cause for concern.”

Conservative MP Katie Lam put it bluntly in her video response: “The Government’s new ‘anti-Muslim hostility’ definition will make it harder to talk about Islamist extremism, FGM, and the grooming gangs. They’d rather restrict our right to criticise than deal with these problems head-on. It’s putting us all in danger.”

Parliament abolished blasphemy laws in 2008. Yet as the FSU warns: “This Government risks reviving them for Islam alone, via the back door.”

The wider context is the government’s “Protecting What Matters” report from March 2026, which rolled out the non-statutory definition alongside plans for a special representative on Muslim hostility. Officials insist it protects free speech – but the panel’s composition tells a different story. 

Read the full Free Speech Union briefing here.

This comes just weeks after we reported on the government’s leaked social cohesion strategy that branded the Union Flag a “tool of hate” and told schools children’s drawings could be blasphemous under Islamic law. 

It builds directly on the Orwellian push we exposed where UK schools are urged to snitch on “anti-Muslim hostility.” 

The pattern is clear: criticism of Islam is being reframed as hostility, while real problems like grooming gangs, FGM and Islamist extremism are sidelined.

Challenging Islamist extremism or mass migration’s consequences is now being treated as the real threat. Legitimate debate on integration failures, cultural clashes, or grooming scandals gets reclassified as “hostility” while the actual problems fester.

Britain’s free speech tradition is under sustained assault – not from the public, but from a government more interested in shielding one ideology than defending open society. 

The Free Speech Union is right to sound the alarm. Without pushback, this backdoor blasphemy regime will silence the very conversations the country desperately needs.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 05:00

OpenAI Pauses U.K. Stargate Over "Regulation And Power Costs"

OpenAI Pauses U.K. Stargate Over "Regulation And Power Costs"

OpenAI's broader Stargate push to build next-generation AI infrastructure in the UK has been put on hold, with the company citing regulatory conditions and high energy costs as major obstacles to long-term investment. That outcome is hardly surprising: Britain, like much of dying Europe, has layered on regulatory burdens, while years of backfiring 'green' energy policies have left power costs structurally elevated. It's a toxic mix for power-hungry AI data center buildouts.

"We see huge potential for the UK's AI future," OpenAI told Bloomberg in an emailed statement earlier today. "AI compute is foundational to that goal — we continue to explore Stargate UK and will move forward when the right conditions, such as regulation and the cost of energy, enable long-term infrastructure investment."

Stargate UK is just one piece of OpenAI's much larger global expansion plan, which involves spending hundreds of billions (up to $500bln) on AI infrastructure to localize and scale AI capabilities.

The pause in Stargate UK signals that growth in AI data center buildouts is colliding with power constraints and regulations in the Western world, as left-wing leaders prioritize de-growth economies with extremist climate policies, while on the other side of the world, China did the complete opposite and boosted baseload capacity on the grid with some of the dirtiest mix of power generation. 

Similar OpenAI projects are underway in Norway and the United Arab Emirates. The core buildout has been in the US, specifically the flagship data center in Abilene, Texas. However, the company abandoned a planned expansion of that data center.

OpenAI's global compute buildout takeaway: 

  • US = scale + policy support

  • Middle East = capital + energy

  • Nordics = cheap power + cooling

  • UK/Europe = constrained by cost + regulation

Last week, Bloomberg reported that nearly half of the US data centers planned for this year were delayed or canceled - not because of memory chip shortages - but instead shortages of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear, and batteries.

Related:

It certainly appears that data center buildouts are running into real-world constraints that could be a negative for AI momentum trades.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 04:15

Germany Restricts Emigration To Prevent Young Men From Escaping The Military Draft

Germany Restricts Emigration To Prevent Young Men From Escaping The Military Draft

Authored by Ryan McMaken via the Mises Institute,

Late last year, German lawmakers passed new legislation paving the way for military conscription. As the Guardian reports, “The change will include the obligatory screening of all 18-year-old men to gauge their suitability to serve in the military from 1 January..” This is not (yet) full-blown conscription, but clearly moves in that direction, providing the German state with a plan to measure and assess the availability of young men who can be used as a resource in coming military conflicts. 

Now, the legislation faces additional opposition because it turns out the law “requires men aged up to 45 to get permission from the armed forces before any significant stay abroad, even in peacetime.” In other words, the law restricts the emigration of young men who might be of some use to the state as cannon fodder. According to The Guardian: 

The fine print, which went largely under the radar until a media report called attention to it this week, says men aged 17 to 45 would have to apply for authorisation to leave Germany for more than three months. ... The clause could potentially affect millions of German citizens embarking on anything from a gap year or study abroad to a new job or sabbatical.

It touched off agitated media coverage in a country where the changes to the military service policy have already led to street protests by school pupils subject to the law’s new requirements.

From restrictions on free speech to attempts to shut down entire political parties, the German state has increasingly showed its affinity for despotism in recent years. Now, by introducing emigration controls, Germany is reverting to an old tactic used by militarist, socialistic European regimes of the past. 

As I showed in a 2018 article on how restriction on emigration are a hallmark of despotic states, mandatory military service has long been used as a justification for regulating those who seek to leave the country:

According to Stanley Johnson, in Emigration from the United Kingdom to North America, 1763-1912, “In Germany, an enactment of 1897 forbade the departure of any citizen who had not completed his military training; it appointed also, a special staff of officials to regulate the emigration agencies.” Also: “The movement in Italy is practically in the hands of the Government, and no one can lawfully depart from trans-Atlantic ports without special permission.” In Italy, as in Hungary, there were only certain government approved “routes by which all migrants are to travel.” In Russia, “permits for crossing the frontier are only granted when all military obligations are at an end.”

Military service was not the only reason for restricting emigration, of course. European states restricted emigration whenever it was thought potential migrants might be fleeced for tax revenue or other riches before being allowed to leave. In Alan Kulikoff’s book From British Peasants to Colonial American Farmers, he states

Dissatisfied German peasants, like those in Britain, could emigrate, but German states, worried about losing population and taxes, put roadblocks in their way. Emigrants had to settle all debts and taxes. Free emigrants had to pay large fees for permission to depart and to take property with them, and serfs - a substantial part of the populace - had to pay manumission fees amounting to 12-25 percent of their property.” 

Many emigrated anyway, often illegally. Indeed, military conscription proved to be a motivation for countless men across many regions from Spain to Germany to the Ottoman Empire, and to Japan. As I note in this article from 2022: 

Some immigrant groups in America, such as the Volga Germans, are practically defined by their avoidance of conscription. Specifically, the Volga Germans in America are descended from Germans who emigrated to Russia in the eighteenth century on the condition that they would not be subject to conscription into the czar’s army. When these exemptions were revoked in the nineteenth century, many Volga Germans emigrated to the United States, where they today constitute a sizable portion of the ethnic German populations of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oregon, and Washington. Anabaptist subgroups of the Volga Germans also fled to America to avoid conscription. Groups such as the Hutterites and the Mennonites were explicitly opposed to military service. ...

Before the Volga Germans, many other Germans had fled the German kingdoms. A large percentage of Germans arrived in Chicago “during the 1830s … to avoid conscription in the army.”

In Spain during the 1860s, unknown numbers of young men fled to avoid military service to the crown, even in spite of the watchful eyes of government agents seeking to prevent emigration. Wayne H. Bowen writes:

Given the poor conditions for troops, conscription was always a challenge for the central government. Many potential soldiers did their best to avoid service, even through leaving Spain. Emigration was a serious problem, as the families of young boys tried to send them to the colonies or encouraged them to emigrate to Latin America or the United States in order to avoid conscription. The Guardia Civil, Spain’s national paramilitary police, had orders to watch the coast and port cities for young men trying to leave, and colonial governors were prohibited from issuing passports to boys who could not prove service or exemption.

Membership in an ethnic minority in Spain likely provided an added impetus to exit, and “evasion of military service was … widespread among Spanish Basques.”

Meanwhile, in Japan, “militarization [in the early twentieth century] and the initiation of the so-called blood tax or national conscription also encouraged many young Japanese males to emigrate to avoid the draft.” Many went to Peru and Brazil.

Although the German state has not yet adopted full conscription, Berlin is clearly up to its old tricks. Of course, the fact that the German state has to take these steps at all shows just unpopular German foreign policy is. After all, if the public were supportive of the state, conscription—or “pre-conscription,” so to speak—would not be necessary. The “need” to impose forced military service on the population is always an illustration of a state lacking legitimacy. Moreover, if a state has to intervene to prevent people from leaving, what does that tell us about that state’s so-called “social contract.” After all, how many times have we heard the political myth that sounds something like this “by choosing to live in this country, you are saying that you will abide by all the state’s demands and rules. Thus, everything the state does to you is voluntary.” But now, it seems, young men will need to get permission to leave. That’s a truly strange social “contract” indeed.  

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 03:30

China's Debt Surpasses Europe For The First Time

China's Debt Surpasses Europe For The First Time

China’s government debt has surpassed the European Union’s for the first time, marking a major shift in the global debt landscape.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S., China, and Europe have followed very different borrowing paths. While Europe kept debt growth relatively constrained, both the U.S. and China expanded rapidly—especially after 2020.

The chart below, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, visualizes annual government debt totals for the U.S., EU, and China from 1995 to 2025 in current U.S. dollars (not adjusted for inflation), using data from the IMF.

In 2025, China’s government debt reached $18.7 trillion, surpassing the EU’s $17.6 trillion total for the first time.

The crossover underscores how rapidly China’s borrowing has scaled over the past two decades.

The Rapid Rise in U.S. and China’s Government Debt

In 2008, U.S. government debt stood at $10.9 trillion, roughly in line with the EU’s $10.7 trillion total. By 2025, it had surged to $38.3 trillion, leaving the EU behind by $20.7 trillion.

The data table below shows the government debt of the U.S., China, and EU from 1995 to 2025 in current U.S. dollars:

From just $1.2 trillion in 2008, China’s government debt grew at roughly 17% annually—fast enough to overtake the EU in less than two decades.

Since 2008, U.S. government debt expanded at about 7.7% per year, compared with roughly 3.0% per year for the EU.

Why China and U.S. Debt Grew Much Faster than Europe’s

While the EU’s slower debt growth partially reflects weaker nominal growth across the bloc compared to the U.S. and China, it also is a symptom of the bloc’s tighter fiscal constraints after Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, which peaked between 2010 and 2012.

In contrast, China’s surge in debt was driven by credit expansion, infrastructure spending, and state-backed growth.

The U.S., meanwhile, combined crisis-era borrowing with persistent deficits, especially after 2020, allowing debt to scale far beyond Europe’s. With fewer fiscal constraints at the federal level, Washington has maintained higher spending levels—helping explain why U.S. debt now stands far above both China and the EU.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The World’s $111 Trillion in Government Debt on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 02:45

UK Government's Twisted Priorities Exposed...

UK Government's Twisted Priorities Exposed...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In Two-tier Britain words trigger instant action, but violent offenders get indefinite leave to remain.

UK border policy under Keir Starmer’s Labour government has never looked more lopsided.

An Afghan migrant who carried out a ‘horrific’ bottle attack on a 14-year-old girl and her mother has been allowed to stay in the country despite his violent criminal record. At the same time, the Prime Minister moved swiftly to block Kanye West from headlining the Wireless festival.

The contrast exposes the reality of Britain’s immigration system: tough on controversial speech, soft on actual predators who crossed the Channel or arrived via asylum claims.

Starmer stated: “Kanye West should never have been invited to headline Wireless. This government stands firmly with the Jewish community, and we will not stop in our fight to confront and defeat the poison of antisemitism. We will always take the action necessary to protect the public and uphold our values.”

This is not an isolated case. It reflects a pattern where the Home Office struggles to remove foreign offenders while celebrities face pre-emptive bans over lyrics or statements. 

The Afghan national in question arrived in 1999, claimed asylum, and received indefinite leave to remain by 2001. His record includes multiple violent incidents, yet tribunals have repeatedly sided with his continued presence citing treatment for mental health issues and years without reoffending.

British families see the result. A mother and her teenage daughter were left traumatised after a savage attack in a shop following a dispute over religious comments. 

The perpetrator struck them repeatedly with a bottle and issued threats. That level of violence earned convictions for wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm and related offences.

Yet the system found reasons to keep him here.

Meanwhile, actual border enforcement is reserved for figures like Kanye West. The government’s message is clear: speech can be policed aggressively, but mass illegal entries and criminal migrants receive layers of legal protection, appeals, and human rights considerations.

This is the same Labour government that inherited a broken asylum system and has done nothing meaningful to fix it. Small boats keep arriving. Foreign criminals remain. And the public is told this is all compatible with “protecting the public.”

Until politicians stop treating violent offenders as victims of circumstance and start treating British safety as the non-negotiable priority, stories like this will keep coming. 

The public has had enough of two-tier justice and open-border hypocrisy. Real protection means removing the threats, not shielding them.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/10/2026 - 02:00

Southwest Airlines Limits Passengers To One Portable Charger On Flights

Southwest Airlines Limits Passengers To One Portable Charger On Flights

Southwest Airlines is limiting passengers to one lithium portable charger each - "to strengthen our ability to contain and mitigate lithium battery incidents, including reducing the risk of battery fires," the airline said in a Tuesday statement.

A Southwest Airlines flight arrives at Denver International Airport in Denver, Colo., on Nov. 8, 2025. Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

Passengers will also be prohibited from recharging their devices using in-seat power outlets, and the chargers must remain in an under-seat carry-on bag or on their person. 

The new policy goes into effect April 20 and will apply across the airline's network of flights, as company officials noted that the entire fleet would have in-seat power by mid-2027, reducing the need for travelers to bring their own portable chargers. 

This is the latest in a series of rules around portable power sources. As the Epoch Times notes, Southwest had already moved earlier to address the same risks. In May 2025, the airline required passengers to keep portable chargers visible while using them, a measure that took effect on May 28 that year. That earlier policy formed part of a broader push to keep potential fire sources in plain sight for quick crew response.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a safety alert in September 2025, warning carriers about lithium batteries stored in passenger compartments. The agency recorded 97 incidents involving smoke, fire, or extreme heat on flights the previous year—up from 89 the year before.

The agency said incidents triggered by lithium-ion batteries are now, on average, a weekly occurrence at roughly 1.3 incidents per week. Since 2015, the number of such events has increased by more than 330 percent.

Between March 3, 2006, and March 7, 2026, a total of 709 lithium battery incidents have been recorded, with the majority of cases coming from passenger carriers.

Battery packs and batteries accounted for the bulk of these incidents, with 229 events, followed by e-cigarettes/vape devices, with 122, cell phones, with 81, laptops, with 70, and the rest involving other electronic and medical devices.

On Nov. 5, 2025, a smoke detector alarm from the lavatory of a United Airlines flight departing from San Francisco went off.

“Flight attendants found a passenger in the lavatory who stated their laptop began to overheat. A flight attendant placed the laptop in a thermal containment bag, and the aircraft continued to its destination without further incident,” the FAA said.

Earlier, on Oct. 5, 2025, a passenger’s carry-on bag caught fire during the boarding process in Buffalo, New York, with lithium batteries being the culprit. Passengers were removed from the aircraft, while the fire was extinguished and the batteries were taken out of the plane.

Lithium cells power everything from phones to laptops to the chargers now limited by Southwest. When damaged, overcharged, or exposed to heat, they can ignite in ways difficult to extinguish mid-flight.

Naveen Athrappully contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 22:35

Some Jaded Shah Supporters Express Regret After Scale Of US Bombing On Iran Revealed

Some Jaded Shah Supporters Express Regret After Scale Of US Bombing On Iran Revealed

Via Middle East Eye

The cessation of US-Israeli strikes has brought relief to people in Iran. For those among them who began the conflict supportive of the assault, it also came with a kind of realization. “I thought this was it,” says Leila, 25. “I thought the Islamic Republic was finally coming to an end.”

Leila, who like all Iranians Middle East Eye spoke to is identified using a pseudonym to protect her own safety, says she believed the strikes on her country would be short and decisive – that they would lead to political change. “I even thought the US and Israel had already agreed with Reza Pahlavi about Iran’s future,” she said. “I was wrong.”

Leila is not alone. In the early days of the conflict, some Iranian opponents of the ruling establishment saw Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu as potential forces for change, even as unlikely allies. But as the war dragged on, and the scale of destruction became clearer, those expectations faded dramatically.

“Why did they hit bridges?” Leila asks. “Why destroy railway lines? Why target oil depots?” She shakes her head. “How does that help change a government?”

In January, at the height of massive anti-establishment protests in Iran and the authorities’ crackdown, Trump took to social media to tell demonstrators that help was on its way. But last Tuesday, he told Iran: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again”, before backing down and agreeing a ceasefire.

For anti-establishment Iranians like Leila, the contrast was shocking. “In the span of just two months, we went from ‘help is on the way’ to threats about the destruction of Iranian civilization,” she says. For Leila, the consequences were not only political, but personal. “I lost friends over this,” she says.

She recalls arguments with people who warned her not to trust foreign powers. “They told me Trump and Netanyahu were no better,” she said. “But I didn’t listen. I accused them of supporting the government.”

Some of those friendships have not recovered. “Now I feel like everything I believed in just collapsed,” she says.

'We thought it would be quick'

Ali, 29, had similar expectations. He says that after the January protests he came to believe that change could only come through force. The demonstrations began in response to rising inflation and spread into nationwide, anti-establishment protests.

The government says that 3,117 people were killed – including protesters, security forces and bystanders. The US-based human rights organisation Human Rights Activists News Agency estimates at least 7,015 deaths.

“We thought war would finish everything,” Ali says. Instead, it destroyed his family home. “Our house was flattened,” he says. “We were lucky to survive. But now we have nowhere to go.”

Ali says he believed claims that the strikes would be precise. “They said they would target specific people and military sites. We thought their technology was advanced enough to avoid civilians,” he says. “Maybe when they realised they couldn’t change the system, they started hitting everything,” he adds. “Or maybe I was just naive.”

Those who never believed

Not all anti-establishment Iranians shared that early optimism. Maryam, 47, says she never believed the war would bring anything positive.

“Only blind people could think that a war started by Trump and Netanyahu would bring us freedom,” she says. “Didn’t we see Gaza? Lebanon? Syria? How could anyone think this would be different?”

Israeli and US strikes destroyed energy infrastructure, bridges, steel and petrochemical plants, a synagogue, hospitals, universities and schools, not to mention hundreds of businesses. “Maybe we should be relieved that the explosions have stopped,” Maryam says. “But how do you rebuild a country after this?”

Maryam is very critical of Iranians who supported the war. “Now some of them say they had nothing to do with it,” she says. “They are trying to distance themselves.”

But she does not accept that. “Didn’t they hear Trump saying Iranians welcomed the bombings?” she says. “I cannot forgive that.”

Abbas, 54, takes an even harsher view. He believes the war has effectively ended Reza Pahlavi’s political relevance. “Reza Pahlavi did everything he could to reach to power,” he said. “But he never condemned any of the US or Israeli attacks on Iran’s infrastructure.”

He points to the praise that the son of Iran’s last monarch heaped on Trump. “He tried every form of flattery you can imagine, hoping Trump would take him seriously,” Abbas says. “But in the end, when a deal was reached between Washington and Tehran, he was left more discredited than ever.”

He pauses, then adds: “I hope his supporters understand now: you can’t rely on someone who is willing to see his own people killed and his country destroyed just to get to power.”

A ceasefire filled with doubt

Niloufar, a 34-year-old resident of Tehran, can barely believe the strikes have stopped. For weeks, she has stayed inside her home, listening to the sound of jets and explosions.

“When the ceasefire was announced, it felt unreal. Like something had lifted off my chest,” she says. “For the first time in 40 days, I was able to sleep peacefully.”

Yet uncertainty remains. There are still reports of sporadic explosions. Many are unsure whether the pause will hold. Israel killed scores of people in Lebanon on Wednesday, attacks that Iran said violated the ceasefire agreement.

Leila says she struggles to believe the attacks on her country have stopped. “They said there is a ceasefire,” she says. “So what are these explosions?” he lowers her voice. “What if it starts again?”

Others worry the ceasefire itself may be temporary – or even strategic. Mehdi, 31, says he does not trust either side. “I don’t trust the US or Israel,” he says. “Honestly, I don’t even trust them more than our own government.”

Negotiations were under way before the US and Israel launched their war. It’s unclear to Mehdi why these latest talks should be taken more seriously. “We were negotiating, then suddenly they attacked,” he says. “What if they negotiate again and then strike even harder?”

The disillusionment runs deep. Ali puts it simply: “Before the war, we used to say things couldn’t get worse. Now we know they can. We thought war would solve everything. Now we know it’s not that simple.”

Ali pauses, and his voice becomes quieter, but more pointed. “And we learnt something else, too: Reza Pahlavi is a stupid and ineffective politician who shows little real concern for the lives of those of us still living inside Iran.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 22:10

Pricing Doritos At $7 A Bag Cost Pepsi "Billions" In Revenue

Pricing Doritos At $7 A Bag Cost Pepsi "Billions" In Revenue

Turns out there's a price point for everything where consumers just stop paying. Guess that whole "price as a rationing mechanism" talk means something after all...

Just ask Pepsi. The iconic brand had recognized for some time that its Frito-Lay snack prices were becoming too expensive, with major retailers like Walmart repeatedly raising concerns, according to Bloomberg.

Even so, prices remained high as sales declined, with some chip bags climbing past $7. Popular products such as Doritos saw sharp increases, jumping nearly 50% since 2021. In response, retailers began allocating more shelf space to lower-cost store brands and competing products.

Bloomberg writes in a new report that in early 2026, PepsiCo finally moved to reduce prices, cutting some snack items by as much as 15%. This decision followed two consecutive years of Frito-Lay missing internal revenue targets. However, new challenges quickly emerged. Rising oil prices tied to global conflicts increased costs for production and packaging, which could weaken the effectiveness of these price cuts and limit their ability to bring customers back.

Prior to these external pressures, analysts believed that moderate price reductions might have been enough to improve sales. Company executives said they planned to assess the results by mid-2026, after earlier test runs showed encouraging increases in product demand. In return for lowering prices, PepsiCo also secured additional shelf space at large retailers, with full implementation expected nationwide.

The report notes that for several years, leadership had struggled with how to address pricing. Executives were reluctant to lower prices because of concerns about short-term financial losses. Instead, they experimented with strategies like reducing package sizes and offering temporary promotions, but these efforts failed to reverse declining sales. A turning point came in 2025 when Rachel Ferdinando reviewed the business and concluded that price cuts were unavoidable.

At the same time, the company was facing broader pressures. Frito-Lay’s long streak of consistent revenue growth came to an end, and it began losing ground to more affordable competitors. Other major food companies had already started lowering their prices, increasing the urgency. Meanwhile, PepsiCo was also investing in higher-priced, health-focused products, which added complexity to its pricing decisions.

The situation can be traced back to the pandemic period, when PepsiCo raised prices to offset supply chain disruptions and rising labor costs. Consumers initially accepted these increases, but over time the higher prices became harder to justify. Although revenue briefly surged, shoppers eventually began cutting back. Even as demand weakened, the company hesitated to reverse its pricing strategy.

By 2025, it became clear that affordability was a key concern for consumers. Price reductions were first tested in select markets and then expanded more broadly in 2026. While discounts have attracted some buyers, overall demand remains uncertain. PepsiCo now faces the ongoing challenge of maintaining lower prices while dealing with rising costs and cautious consumer spending habits.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 21:45

Indiana Suspends Gas Sales Tax Amid US–Iran War

Indiana Suspends Gas Sales Tax Amid US–Iran War

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Indiana has suspended its gas sales tax for 30 days as prices keep rising amid the United States’ war with Iran.

Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (C) speaks during a press conference in Gary, Ind., on Oct. 30, 2025. Jamie Kelter Davis/Getty Images

Gov. Mike Braun announced the suspension on April 8.

“I am declaring a gas tax holiday to give Hoosiers relief from the pain at the pump from high gas prices,” Braun said in a statement. “Affordability is my top priority.”

Indiana’s state gas sales tax, also known as its gasoline use tax, is 7 percent. A separate excise tax of $0.36 cents a gallon is not affected by the suspension.

The 30-day reprieve could be extended, Braun’s office said.

Indiana officials are going to be “patrolling the pumps” to make sure that savings from the gas tax suspension go to Indiana residents, rather than retailers.

Braun also said the Indiana attorney general should enforce regulations prohibiting retailer price gouging.

“With the suspension of Indiana’s gas tax for the next 30 days, my office will closely monitor fuel prices to guard against any potential price gouging,” Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita said in a statement.

The United States attacked Iran in February, sending the price of oil soaring.

On April 7, Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week cease-fire.

Oil prices dropped below $100 a barrel in the wake of the cease-fire agreement.

The average price per gallon in Indiana on Wednesday was $4.13, slightly lower than the $4.16 nationwide, according to the American Automobile Association.

The average in Indiana a week ago was $3.96, and the average a month ago was $3.46.

“Many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at home,” President Donald Trump said in a speech on April 1. “This short-term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict.”

Georgia’s governor was the first in the nation to suspend his state’s gas tax. Gov. Brian Kemp on March 20 signed a bill suspending the state’s gas tax for 60 days.

Georgia’s tax is typically 33.3 cents per gallon.

Kemp also signed a bill that authorized $1.2 billion in income tax refunds.

“Hardworking Georgians know best how to spend their money, not the government,” he said in a statement. “That’s why I’m proud to sign these bills and, along with the General Assembly, deliver meaningful tax relief on top of the other measures we’ve taken in recent years. Because we budget conservatively, we can take steps like these that actually deliver on affordability issues for families in our state.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 21:20

Turns Out the Elites Like The Administrative State Better Than Democracy

Turns Out the Elites Like The Administrative State Better Than Democracy

Authored by William L. Anderson via MisesInstitute,

If there is a mantra among progressive American political and media elites, it would be “our democracy,” usually preceded by what they believe to be a threat from the Right. For example, progressives deemed the recent reversal of Roe “a threat to our democracy” because it removed laws regulating abortion from Supreme Court jurisdiction and returned the issue to democratically elected legislatures.

It would seem inconsistent to invoke the democratic electoral process to deal with a contentious issue like abortion, but progressives are nothing if not inconsistent. But even in challenging logic on political issues, progressives at least try to stick to the language of democracy, and especially the language of “our democracy.”

However, occasionally progressive elites demonstrate their contempt for democracy because they realize that the democratic process is not going to have the desired progressive results because voters and their representatives do not want to knowingly harm themselves.

Recently, the New York Times, in a progressive moment of truth, reacted to the US Supreme Court’s decision in West Virginia v. EPA, in which the court ruled that because carbon dioxide is not among the pollutants regulated by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, the Environmental Protection Agency could not enforce CO2 emissions rules for electric power plants.

In its 6–3 ruling, the SCOTUS indicated that Congress was free to pass legislation to regulate carbon dioxide but that the EPA was not free to simply add it to its list of regulated power plant emissions on its own. In other words, the high court declared that democratically elected members of the US House and Senate are free to write (and pass) any anti–climate change legislation they choose. This is what the ancients once called democracy.

Not surprisingly, the NYT went ballistic, and in so doing exposed the progressive mentality, with its affinity for rule by “experts.” Declared the newspaper’s editorial board:

Thursday’s ruling also has consequences far beyond environmental regulation. It threatens the ability of federal agencies to issue rules of any kind, including the regulations that ensure the safety of food, medicines and other consumer products, that protect workers from injuries and that prevent financial panics.

The ruling did no such thing. Instead, the court said that federal regulatory agencies are not free to create and enforce rules outside of their statutory authority. The EPA had simply declared itself the official power plant CO2 emissions regulator under the Obama administration despite the fact that Democrats had a supermajority in the US Senate and a huge majority in the House and theoretically could have passed a law giving new regulatory powers to the EPA. That Congress did not do so is instructive.

In other words, this was an extralegal power grab but one approved by elites because, well, elites know more than everyone else. The NYT editorial continued:

In 1984, an earlier generation of conservative Supreme Court justices formalized a doctrine of deference to the judgment of regulatory agencies, modestly concluding that judges were neither experts nor elected officials, and therefore ought to leave such decisions in other hands. In Thursday’s decision, the court asserted that the policy of deference applies only to supposedly unimportant regulations. When it comes to “major questions” of regulatory policy, the court said, it would not hesitate to second-guess regulators—and to strike rules that it decided did not have a clear congressional warrant.

The decision amounts to a warning shot across the bow of the administrative state. The court’s current conservative majority, engaged in a counterrevolution against the norms of American society, is seeking to curtail the efforts of federal regulators to protect the public’s health and safety. The court already invoked a similar logic during the Covid pandemic to strike down workplace Covid testing requirements and a federal moratorium on evictions. And by refraining from defining a threshold for what constitutes a “major question,” the court is leaving a sword hanging over every new rule. (emphasis mine)

The “administrative state,” of course, is anything but democratic; it is autocratic to the core. For all of their professed love for democracy, progressives have long demanded rule by experts, or at least rule by “experts” that meet progressive approval. As I pointed out last year, when actual scientists studied the effects of so-called acid rain and concluded that it was not causing lake and river acidification, progressives in the media, as well as EPA administrators, immediately tried to destroy the careers of scientists failing to echo the party line. Not surprisingly, one of the loudest antiscience voices in the acid rain affair was the New York Times.

Furthermore, for all the “experts know best” rhetoric in the NYT editorial, there is no proof that the administrative state governs as effectively as democracy, which elites pretend to love. The “experts” at the Federal Reserve believed they could substitute trillions of printed dollars for actual production of goods without creating monetary chaos. In western forests, the “experts” at the US Forest Service have had fire suppression policies in place for more than a century, and the result has been that what were once mere forest fires have become destructive conflagrations that burn so hot that they often destroy the scorched soil’s ability to generate postfire growth.

The ”experts” at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention imposed policies that precipitated massive job losses, caused unnecessary premature death from ailments other than covid-19, and still failed to promote adequate information about the virus and its origins. Education “experts” have created one educational crisis after another, and so on. Rule by experts—the administrative state—has caused destruction whenever it is invoked, yet the editors at the “newspaper of record” have failed to notice.

Instead, they proclaim eternal fealty to what only can be called a failed experiment in governance, not to mention that it is antidemocratic. Yet, the NYT editors cannot keep from claiming loyalty to both forms of governance, even when they contradict one another:

Congress has decided, and with good reason, that regulatory agencies staffed by experts are the best available mechanism for a representative democracy to make decisions in areas of technical complexity. The E.P.A. is the entity that Congress relies upon to figure out how clean the air should be, and how to get there. Asserting that it lacks the power to perform its basic responsibilities is simply sabotage.

There is much to dissect in those words, but suffice it to say that to assume that EPA decision makers have the kind of knowledge and expertise implied in that editorial is to foolishly demonstrate faith in something that inevitably fails. Far from being near-omniscient sages of science, the bureaucrats making life-altering decisions at the EPA are people who bear no costs if they impose unnecessary burdens on the lives of ordinary people but who also find that the more draconian their edicts, the greater the praise from environmental interest groups and, of course, the New York Times. What possibly could go wrong?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 20:55

War On The Shore: Maryland Dem Officials Freak Out At Journalists Ahead Of Exposé On Governor

War On The Shore: Maryland Dem Officials Freak Out At Journalists Ahead Of Exposé On Governor

The Democratic kings and queens in the one-party–ruled state of Maryland are absolutely panicking, something that should not be happening in a deep-blue state, as their crown jewel, left-wing Gov. Wes Moore, a prospective Democratic presidential candidate, has seen polling data implode. High taxes, surging power bills, a state budget crisis, poor leadership, and even questions about honesty have sparked voter backlash on both sides of the political aisle. 

In the battle for narrative control, Moore's office and the Democratic Party's propaganda machine have launched a preemptive campaign against The Baltimore Sun's forthcoming investigative series, which is expected to release an exposé on Moore. 

"The Baltimore Sun used to be our paper of record," Moore recently told MS NOW host Jen Psaki, a former White House press secretary who made a career at covering up Biden's mental decline. "It's now become the paper of the right wing."

Democrats have been upset that, in deep-blue Baltimore and across the state, right-leaning Sinclair executive chairman David Smith now owns the paper. As a result, The Sun has shifted from promoting left-wing conspiracies and all things DEI to more balanced, center-right content.

The loss of narrative power at The Sun is what truly irritates Democratic leadership in the state, as their inability to control the narrative has caused Moore's polling numbers to drop significantly.

"Democrats sure are putting in a lot of work to discredit a series before it's even started running. That alone should raise a question: why?" Candy Woodall, former national political reporter at USA Today, now managing editor of Spotlight on Maryland, a local investigative reporting collaboration of WBFF45 (owned by Sinclair), wrote on X. 

Woodall Continued: 

In January, I was warned directly that if Spotlight continued its investigation into Gov. Wes Moore's military records—and one of his superiors—that his office would send files to every media reporter to try and discredit us.

We saw the same playbook in 2022 when a FOX45 reporter asked why Moore allowed claims that he had received a Bronze Star that he didn't have at the time. His team accused the reporter and media outlet of bias and a smear campaign. Two years later, after the New York Times wrote about the Bronze Star Moore hadn't received, the narrative changed, and the governor said it was "an honest mistake." In an August 2024 statement on his military record, Moore acknowledged he knew before leaving Afghanistan that he had not received the award.

Spotlight's reporting digs deeper into Moore's military records and more, and our investigative series will begin to publish soon. This is standard journalism to scrutinize the words and records of elected officials and candidates who hold positions of power and public trust. Our loyalty is to the Maryland public we serve — not any public official or political party.

Our work has been fair. We've sent hundreds of questions. Most have gone unanswered. We've offered multiple sit-down interviews with the governor and his staff. They have declined repeated requests.

Moore's office hasn't seen a word of this series yet, but the governor and his communications staff are actively campaigning and peddling a narrative to smear it. In fact, his director of media strategy said this week of us, "They don't deserve to be treated like a news outlet and nothing that comes out of Sinclair should be taken seriously." They continued this effort last night in an interview on MSNOW with Jen Psaki, Biden's former press secretary.

The real questions you should be asking right now: Why don't they want you to read the series? What is it they don't want you to know? And if we're so wrong about everything, why not just release the records and prove it?

If you want to know more, keep reading The Baltimore Sun, a 200-year-old newspaper that has survived many governors.

After The New York Times reported in 2024 that Moore had falsely claimed to have received a Bronze Star for his service in Afghanistan, a controversy over his military record intensified. Spotlight on Maryland later picked up the investigative baton at the local level.

Moore's team responded aggressively on X, in what appeared to be a bid to discredit the reporters - even dismissing one Fox Baltimore reporter as "not a journalist."

Democrats have reason to worry about any major forthcoming exposé on Moore. His Polymarket odds of becoming the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential nominee currently sit at just 1%.

//--> //--> Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes 1% · No 99%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

The real issue for Democrats is that Smith of Sinclair is single-handedly chipping away at their core abilities to run counter-narratives, which has eroded Moore's odds of leapfrogging from the financially troubled state to the White House.

In recent weeks, Moore was greeted by a stadium full of boos during Orioles Opening Day in Baltimore City, a major stronghold for progressives. This should never be happening to a left-wing governor in the state.

But it is his sheer incompetence in serving as proper stewards of the state and prioritizing DEI, woke, illegal aliens, over Marylanders that has sparked voter backlash. Stuff like this:

Moore smiling with far-left radical Alex Soros. 

Only a matter of time before the Moore team taps the Soros nonprofit team for help. Unless they already have... 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 20:30

'World's First' Humanoid Robot For Real Household Chores Launched With 16-Hour Battery

'World's First' Humanoid Robot For Real Household Chores Launched With 16-Hour Battery

Authored by Jijo Malayil via Interesting Engineering,

Chinese robotics firm UniX AI has unveiled Panther, touted as the world’s first service humanoid robot to enter real household deployment.

UniX AI has commenced global deliveries of Panther, bringing service humanoid robots into real homes.UniX AI

Panther is a third-generation full-size wheeled dual-arm humanoid robot, and UniX AI has commenced global deliveries.

The robot stands about 5 feet 3 inches tall, weighs around 176 pounds (80 kilograms), and operates for 8 to 16 hours on a single charge.

According to the Suzhou-based firm, its design focuses on usability and reliable performance in complex indoor environments, marking a significant step toward bringing general-purpose humanoid robots into everyday settings.

Stable service robot

Panther is a wheeled dual-arm humanoid robot designed for real-world deployment across home, commercial, and industrial settings - and is equipped with an omnidirectional, four-wheel-steering, four-wheel-drive (4WS+4WD) chassis, enabling agile movement and stable operation in complex indoor environments. According to the UniX AI, the wheeled architecture marks a departure from the more common legged humanoid approach, which is combined with general-purpose AI models, offering improved efficiency and practicality for deployment.

According to UniX AI, the robot features 34 high-degree-of-freedom joints, including the world’s first mass-produced 8-DoF bionic arms and adaptive intelligent grippers, allowing precise and flexible manipulation.

Furthermore, it is equipped with cameras, sensors, and audio input systems that support object recognition, indoor navigation, and interaction with people. The system is designed to perform multi-step tasks rather than isolated actions, allowing it to execute complete sequences of activities.

“With our integrated trinity of algorithms, hardware, and applications, we have already scaled from lab validation to mass delivery, and from local deployment to global expansion,” said Fred Yang, Founder and CEO of UniX AI, in a statement.

Multi-task humanoid

In demonstrations and early deployments, the robot has shown the ability to handle a variety of domestic tasks. These include waking users, preparing breakfast, cleaning rooms, organizing household items, and operating certain appliances. It can also sort and move objects as part of routine household workflows.

The robot is built to manage continuous task sequences efficiently. For example, it can wake a user in the morning, prepare a meal, clean the kitchen afterward, and organize the living space, demonstrating coordinated, multi-step task execution in real-world home environments.

Panther, evolved from the Wanda 2.0 platform, introduces an 80 cm vertical lift of the upper body, enabling both elevated reach and ground-level operation. It operates on an upgraded 48V power platform, delivering higher output along with improved stability for high-speed control and dynamic movements.

Panther is powered by UniX AI’s integrated technology stack. UniFlex enables efficient cross-scenario task generalization and imitation learning. UniTouch combines visuo-tactile multimodal models to improve precision handling and interactive capabilities with enhanced stability. UniCortex supports long-term task planning, enabling the robot to execute complex, multi-step operations seamlessly.

According to the firm, the system is designed for a wide range of real-world applications. These include commercial services such as hotels, reception, retail, and guided tours; home and personal uses like household tasks, elderly care, and companionship; and public or industrial roles including security patrols, research, and education.

Experts say household robots still face hurdles, including cluttered environments, varied lighting, and handling soft objects. Challenges in navigation, appliance interaction, battery life, cost, safety, and reliability remain. However, robots performing multiple domestic tasks indicate that fully functional home assistants managing daily chores are gradually moving closer to reality.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 20:05

Pentagon Seeks Stunning 243x Budget Surge For Drone Warfare Unit As Eurasian Wars Reshape Combat

Pentagon Seeks Stunning 243x Budget Surge For Drone Warfare Unit As Eurasian Wars Reshape Combat

Buried in the Department of War's Fiscal Year 2027 procurement request is a massive increase for the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG), a clear acknowledgment that ongoing conflicts across Eurasia have underscored one hard lesson: cheap kamikaze drones can impose outsized costs on traditional militaries. The substantial surge in the budget request also signals growing urgency within the DoW to field these drones at scale.

The defense and aerospace news publication Inside Defense was the first to report on the DoW's massive budget request for the autonomous drone warfare group. The budget would skyrocket from $225 million this year to potentially $54.6 billion next year:

The Pentagon's fiscal year 2027 budget request seeks a massive expansion of the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, setting a $54.6 billion budget for the relatively obscure team -- a jaw-dropping increase over the $225 million the effort received in FY-26, signaling a major emphasis on autonomous drones across the military services.

The dramatic surge in requested funding represents one of the most substantial allocations outside the traditional service accounts, reflecting the Pentagon's broader commitment to autonomous warfare capabilities, which have....

Details surrounding DAWG appear to center on scaling autonomous warfare capabilities, especially drones and related systems, though the effort remains little known publicly.

Related:

The sheer size of the request - a 243-fold increase - signals a much broader, military-wide push in the coming years to institutionalize autonomous weapons. This comes amid lessons learned not only from the Russia-Ukraine war, but also from the current US-Iran conflict, where inexpensive one-way Iranian attack drones have wreaked havoc on US military bases, Gulf energy assets, and civilian infrastructure such as data centers and water desalination plants.

We also suspect there will be a major push to develop and field low-cost interceptor solutions to counter these inexpensive drones, rather than relying on multimillion-dollar missiles. We have already highlighted this theme here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 19:40

USPS Pauses Pension Contributions Amid Looming Cash Shortfall

USPS Pauses Pension Contributions Amid Looming Cash Shortfall

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) has temporarily suspended its employer contributions to a government-wide pension plan after warning Congress that, without changes, it could run out of cash within the next year.

On Thursday, USPS told the Office of Personnel Management—the federal government’s human resource division—that it would pause its biweekly employer contributions to the Federal Employees Retirement System, or FERS.

The move is expected to conserve about $2.5 billion through Sept. 30, the end of the current fiscal year, according to USPS. The mail agency typically pays about $200 million every other week into the plan.

USPS Chief Financial Officer Luke Grossmann said the temporary withholding would have no “immediate detrimental impact” on current or future retirees. He said the agency would continue forwarding employees’ own FERS contributions, as well as all regularly scheduled payments to the Thrift Savings Plan, another retirement program for federal workers.

“The risk to the Postal Service and the American public from insufficient liquidity for postal operations dramatically outweighs any longer-term risk to the pension funds from not making the currently due payments,” Grossmann said.

Although USPS is generally required by law to make the payments, the Postal Regulatory Commission granted the agency a waiver that gives it flexibility to catch up later.

The cash-saving measure comes as postal officials warn Congress of the agency’s deteriorating finances. At a March 17 hearing, Postmaster General David Steiner told the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that USPS could become unable to continue delivering mail by February 2027 if it keeps paying all of its bills on time under the current structure.

“Less than a year from now, the Postal Service will be unable to deliver the mail if we maintain the status quo,” he said in his testimony.

According to Steiner, USPS has already had to rely on extraordinary cash-conservation measures, and he warned that lawmakers might have to consider steps such as reducing delivery frequency from six days a week to five or fewer. He also floated the idea of hiking first-class stamp prices to as high as 95 cents.

“At 78 cents, the U.S. First-Class Stamp is the lowest-priced in the industrialized world,” Steiner told lawmakers at the hearing.

“If we were to change the stamp price to 90 to 95 cents, which is still less than half of the cost of most foreign posts, that would largely solve our controllable loss.”

USPS has struggled financially for years as first-class mail volumes continue to decline and operating costs rise. According to a report published in March by U.S. Government Accountability Office, it has lost money every fiscal year but one since 2007, accumulating a staggering $118 billion in net losses over that time.

The agency has also turned to temporary price hikes to help cover operation costs. The Postal Regulatory Commission has approved an 8 percent temporary increase on priority mail and package prices beginning April 26 and lasting through Jan. 17, 2027.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 19:15

Minnesota Whistleblower Alleges Years Of 'Reckless Disregard' At Fraud-Plagued Agency

Minnesota Whistleblower Alleges Years Of 'Reckless Disregard' At Fraud-Plagued Agency

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Seven years after Faye Bernstein first blew the whistle on waste, fraud, and abuse concerns, “nothing is changing” at the Minnesota Department of Human Services, she told lawmakers during an April 7 hearing at the state Capitol in St. Paul.

Faye Bernstein, a whistleblower who works for the Minnesota Department of Human Services, testifies before the state's Fraud Prevention and State Agency Oversight Policy Committee in St. Paul, Minn., on April 7, 2026. Screenshot via The Epoch Times/The Minnesota House of Representatives' video livestream

As a 20-year employee who still works for the department while facing alleged demotion and retaliation over her complaints, “I still see a reckless disregard for compliance,” she told the state’s Fraud Prevention and State Agency Oversight Policy Committee.

Bernstein, a former compliance officer at the agency that faces heightened national scrutiny over massive fraud scandals, gave an example supporting her opinion. She said she learned that, about a year ago, “someone had falsified the audit tracker,” an important internal record that helps workers ensure they remedy problems identified in audits.

“When I heard that, I thought, ‘My gosh, somebody’s getting fired for that!’” Bernstein said; instead, managers excused the falsification, indicating “that person had simply made a mistake, that maybe she didn’t understand instructions,” she said.

“The lackadaisical attitude we have about even keeping track of our findings will partially explain” why some of those same findings recurred in an audit released in January, she said. The audit noted some of the same issues that Bernstein reported in 2019.

After Bernstein’s testimony, the agency’s commissioner, Shireen Gandhi, testified. She pledged to “build a culture of compliance,” and to ensure that all staff members understand their roles and “have the knowledge, skills, and authority to fulfill those responsibilities.”

State Rep. Isaac Schultz, a Republican who serves on the anti-fraud committee, told Gandhi:  “I hope that more people [like Bernstein] continue to shine light on what’s going on inside of your department, because I have a really hard time trusting what leadership is saying to us.”

Another committee member, Democratic state Rep. Steve Elkins, gave Gandhi credit for owning up to problems that the audit revealed.

Having been elected in 2018, Elkins has read quite a few audits. Each one includes a response from the agency that was audited. Typically, “that letter is deflecting, denying, minimizing,” he said.

“This is the first time ... where the head of the agency stepped up and said almost everything in the report was accurate, and this is what we’re going to do about it, and this is when we’re going to have it done, and this is the person who’s responsible for getting it done,” Elkins said. “And I think that that’s a remarkable turnaround.”

Shireen Gandhi, commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Human Services, answers questions at a meeting of the state's Fraud Prevention and State Agency Oversight Policy Committee in St. Paul, Minn., on April 7, 2026. Screenshot via The Epoch Times/The Minnesota House of Representatives' video livestream Lawmaker Urges: ‘Draw a Line in the Sand’

Minnesota’s government-program fraud dating to 2018 could reach $9 billion or more, prosecutors have said. Fraud concerns have expanded nationwide; the national leader may turn out to be California, where scammers may have bilked taxpayers out of “hundreds of billions” of dollars, a federal prosecutor said.

Many of Minnesota’s still-emerging fraud scandals involve programs that are now under Gandhi’s purview. She has worked for the agency since 2017 and has headed it since last year; Gov. Tim Walz made her temporary appointment permanent earlier this year.

State Rep. Kristin Robbins, a Republican who chairs the fraud-prevention committee, told Gandhi: “The most important thing is to make sure we’re being good stewards of taxpayer money.”

“As Ms. Bernstein said, we’ve been talking about this for years ... so we have to draw a line in the sand and say: ‘We are not going to allow this to continue anymore,’” Robbins said.

Robbins and other committee members repeatedly asked Gandhi about holding people accountable when procedures aren’t followed or when records are falsified; the latest audit revealed that employees created new records—and backdated them—in the midst of the auditors’ probe.

“I was shocked to hear this information,” Gandhi told the committee, calling any such fabrications “absolutely unacceptable.” However, Gandhi said state law prohibits her from revealing details of the internal investigation into the falsified records.

When Robbins inquired further, Gandhi said information was presented to state authorities for possible criminal charges. The agency is also putting together internal processes “for preventing and catching this sort of issue going forward,” Gandhi said.

Minnesota Rep. Kristin Robbins, chair of the state's Fraud Prevention and State Agency Oversight Policy Committee, in St. Paul, Minn., on April 7, 2026. Screenshot via The Epoch Times/The Minnesota House of Representatives' video livestream No-Bid Contracts Awarded, Procedures Not Followed

In mid-2025, lawmakers approved a two-year budget of $17 billion for Gandhi’s agency, accounting for 40 percent of the state’s total budget, state legislative records show.

One branch of the department, the Behavioral Health Administration, distributed more than $2 billion in grants from July 2022 to December 2024. The money goes to businesses and organizations that provide mental-health or substance-abuse services.

However, during that 29-month span, the state agency “did not comply with most requirements we tested,” Valentina Stone, an audit director for the Office of Legislative Auditor, testified to the fraud committee.

Auditors found 13 problems that need to be fixed to safeguard taxpayers’ money, including four recurrent issues, Stone said.

During the study period, the agency handled 830 unique grant agreements. Auditors combed several batches of those grants, looking for compliance with different “internal controls”—rules and procedures to ensure proper use and tracking of money.

Among 24 grants examined for compliance with competitive-bidding rules, auditors found the agency had inappropriately awarded more than half of them. The agency doled out five grants totaling $4.7 million without seeking competitive bids first or giving a reason for skipping that process.

Other tests revealed more internal-controls violations. The agency paid grantees even before grant agreements were signed, failed to visit providers to ensure they were complying with agreements to render services, and awarded new grants to past providers without reviewing how those providers performed.

“It concerns me greatly ... that money is still going out the door in real time to some of these same grantees when these processes haven’t been tightened up,” Robbins said.

In March, a separate audit of Human Services’ fraud-ridden autism-treatment reimbursement program found that the agency mistakenly believed that it lacked authority to probe allegations of kickbacks without evidence of another alleged offense. The problem appears to have stemmed from a decades-old definition of “fraud” that failed to explicitly list kickbacks, which are illegal payments to people who cooperate with scammers.

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Tyler Durden Thu, 04/09/2026 - 18:25

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