A Sober Revolution Is Sweeping America... And Markets Are Responding

Authored by Laura Williams via TheDailyEconomy.org,

For the first time in Gallup’s 90-year polling history, a majority of Americans now view moderate alcohol consumption as bad for one’s health. Just 54 percent of American adults say they drink alcohol, and 49 percent tell pollsters they’d like to cut back in 2025. 

In particular, Gen-Z seems to have gotten the memo on alcohol’s dangers. Adults under 35 are the least likely to drink, with fully 40 percent living an entirely dry lifestyle. Women are most likely to have cut back their consumption between 2020 and 2025, which fits a pattern: COVID lockdowns showed people alcohol’s ugly power.  

Many middle-aged and older folk who’ve cut back recently cited the COVID-19 lockdowns as a source of clarity about their drinking patterns. Without daily obligations or anyone to see or judge them, many people livened up the boredom and isolation with an afternoon cocktail. And then a lunchtime cocktail. And without an early commute and in-person meetings, not to mention the existential dread of a global crisis, perhaps it would be okay to stay up late and have one more in the evening. Zoom meetings became online happy hours. Everything from true crime to personal finance advice was paired with a cocktail recipe and a boozy delivery service. Disposable income rose, fueled by stimulus checks and the largely closed entertainment sector. Spending at liquor stores soared in the weeks after checks were mailed, and a survey from Wallethub estimated 24 million Americans spent some of their stimulus money on alcohol. 

Casual critics of capitalism might see the profit motive in companies keeping Americans drinking alcohol, regardless of its dangers. Young people can likely recall the denials and cynical obfuscations of Big Tobacco and might be justified in finding fault with Big Booze as well. Most people imagine alcohol execs as something like the Merchants of Death in Thank You for Smoking: shady characters representing human vices, conspiring to fill our shopping carts with vodka, cigarettes, and loaded firearms.

No doubt, alcohol is pushed on us by brands that want us to associate various formulations of ethanol with the fulfillment of every desire: be cool, popular, confident, loved, and an excellent dancer. The elixir is in the cooler full of ice near your beach volleyball game, or delivered to your table from a handsome stranger. Alcohol product placements and tippling characters saturate streaming services.  

But unlike advertising, markets are value-neutral. They don’t tell us what we should want; they deliver whatever we’re willing to pay for. Yuengling is the nation’s oldest brewery, and if tomorrow they learned that Gen-Z would be going teetotal, they’d be the nation’s largest kombucha and sparkling water distributor by next year. 

Zero-Proof Imitators 

Non-alcoholic adult beverages have the same problem as atheists: it’s hard to affirmatively define yourself with a name that only says what you’re not. So it has been for “near-beer,” “zero-proof liquors,” “spirit-free analogues,” “nosecco,” and perhaps most condescending: “mocktails.” But the zero-proof market segment has entered an era of true innovation, not just imitation. “NA” and “AF” options are no longer niche. 

Young people want to enjoy the same adult, elevated social spaces and events they’ve associated with traditional drinks. Established brands recognized the demand for alcohol-free options that could be consumed in the same situations. Like foodways, drinking customs are part of our social and familial landscapes: being able to grab a Heineken 0.0 from the fridge along with Dad’s Coors Light preserves the social texture without the dose of poison. An alcohol-free cider or craft mocktail at the office party lets nondrinkers fully participate in the celebration, without prompting uncomfortable conversations. Sales of nonalcoholic alcohol imitators are growing fast, and national distributors of wine, beer, and spirits have rolled out new offerings. 

Alcohol-free offerings from several well-known beer brands.

Indeed, savvy beverage brands aren’t just de-alcoholicizing their standard offerings, but instead branching out into kombuchas, tonics, infusions, malts, probiotics, and craft sodas.

Adult Alternatives

Nondrinkers also show interest in beverages with mind-altering and mood-enhancing effects similar to alcohol, but want to avoid its downsides (which range from headaches and hangovers to cancer and coma). Drinks derived from cannabis and infused with the compounds of psychedelic mushrooms are now legal in many states, and are pretty safe compared to alcohol (no lethal dose of either is known). While the availability of recreational cannabis is known to reduce rates of alcohol consumption and abuse, cannabis consumption hasn’t risen significantly over the past five years, so it’s unlikely new users are a major contributor to drinking’s decline.

Among the less-safe iterations of this trend are products containing kava and kratom. These mild stimulants have more in common with espresso and energy drinks than alcohol, but many users report addictive properties and changes in health that look a lot like alcoholism and drug dependence. 

Markets also tend to be great at, well, marketing, so don’t be surprised by the explosion of special collections, targeted sales, and branded merch for Dry July and Sober October. Merchandisers like “Doing It Sober” and “Sober Motivation Shop” have cashed in on the trend, and so have thousands of tiny artisans who now create sobriety-minded accessories. Part of the sobriety aesthetic is smashing stigma as a service to others. The motto on one hoodie reads: “Recover loudly to keep others from dying quietly.” 

Quit Lit and Sober Influencers

Across our consumption landscapes, sober-focused communities are making themselves known. While it wouldn’t be in keeping with group norms to share links to their stories, a quick internet search turns up the online support community r/stopdrinking — perhaps the most reliably supportive, wholesome place on the internet. That Reddit forum had 30,000 members when The Washington Post profiled it ten years ago, but now boasts half a million. No prices are listed here, and the cost is measured in service: support, mutual aid, people sharing their talents freely. Free recovery forums demonstrate supply and demand in the most human way possible. 

Books and podcasts have also proliferated, with Quit Lit finding all the usual niches in bookstores: women’s, men’s, spiritual, subversive. Podcasts like Sober Awkward, Recovery Elevator, and This Naked Mind reach the sober-curious right in their homes and headphones, reducing the stigma of seeking help, or even self-identifying as needing help.

Creator networks like Patreon also shift the traditional model of exchange. Most of the content is free — which is a surprisingly successful money-making strategy on the participatory internet. A variety of cooperative, collaborative, commercial relationships gives people the ability to support their supporters, in a virtuous feedback loop.

Sober Socializing

Social connections can be lubricated by alcohol, so to satisfy the sober socializer, businesses are increasingly offering indulgent adult escapes that don’t center around what can be bought from the barman.

Luxury hotel groups now require their premium locations to have a “sophisticated zero-proof option for the guests that choose not to imbibe.” Non-alcoholic “soft pairings” are appearing in fine dining establishments, where pairing profiles are expected to be just as complex and intentional as the wines for which they substitute. 

According to an article in Time “there’s been a wave of sober bars opening across the US,” and this is good news for artisanal and craft beverage makers who leverage unique botanicals and hops for cultivating specialty drinks. The demand can even support whole establishments: Atlanta’s first alcohol-free bottle shop, The Zero Co, opened in 2022.

“The addition of zero-proof cocktails can attract local guests who are seeking out a non-alcoholic option—similar to the draw of local restaurants that include gluten-free or vegan options,” writes Tad Wilkes for Restaurant Hospitality. 

Even Nitecapp Magazine lauded the rise of non-alcoholic specialty mixology at high-end hotels, calling it a “refreshing trend…redefining the essence of indulgence.” Marketing consultancies and startup sales teams emerged to help restaurants build out zero-proof menus and experiences. 

Sober travel and tour companies promise “clear-headed, connection-rich, booze-free adventures.” Just as there is a market for the all-you-can-drink booze cruise, there’s ready money seeking out sober cruising, and companies happy to fill the gap. Recommendation companies like The Sober Curator provide insights for those who prioritize avoiding intoxicants while traveling.

And because dating is often a bar-based and boozy affair — “I’d like to get to know you better” is often shorthanded with “Can I buy you a drink?” — apps have emerged for those who’d rather do their coupling-up fully conscious: Loosid, Club Pillar, and Sober Love are growing fast. 

Why Would Big Bev Support Sobriety? 

The profit motive doesn’t make liquor companies “care” about your sobriety, in the sense that they care about your happiness or good fortune, the way Adam Smith used “sympathy.” Instead, the pursuit of personal gain (profit motive) encourages market participants to care about whatever you care about. The producers of non-alcoholic beverages, the purveyors of sobriety podcasts, the luxury hotels mixing up mocktails so complicated you’ll still be willing to pay $15 for juice and herbs — they don’t have to “care” about your health or be emotionally invested in your lifestyle choices. Self-interest via economic activity mimics the effects of sympathy for strangers: people will go to extraordinary lengths to provide what you need — if you’re willing to pay for it.

If you or someone you know has tried to avoid thinking about alcohol, you’ll have noticed that American culture is absolutely saturated in the stuff. Alcohol is prominent in 87 percent of top US movies and infused into your social feed. Overt ads on billboards and neon signs in restaurant windows, brand endorsements on sports stadiums: there’s plenty of money to be made in gussying up the world’s most popular Class I carcinogen. 

And sure, earning money is a significant motivator for the makers of SoberMummy teas, the social network Club Soda, and even “Smells Like Sobriety” candles, but it’s hard to see capitalism as the bad guy in building these networks of voluntary support and exchange. As economists are fond of telling students, McDonald’s doesn’t care whether it becomes the premier salad and smoothie outlet in the country, if that’s what you were willing to pay for. 

When we demand better, markets deliver better. Raise a glass — perhaps a placeborita or Cos-no-politan — to the future.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 18:25

Houthis Detain 11 UN Staff, Calling Them 'Spies' For US & Israel

Last Saturday, Israel conducted its major airstrikes on Sanaa which killed the Houthi prime minister, Ahmed al-Rahawi, among other top officials in the Houthi government. The operation has been widely reported as constituting the biggest single loss of Houthi leadership. 

The following day, Sunday, Houthi militants stormed the offices of two United Nations agencies in the capital, specifically the World Food Programme (WFP) and the United Nations children’s agency (UNICEF), according to UN leadership and various international reports.

These offices ere "entered by local security forces" and some WFP and UNICEF staff members were detained. This week it was confirmed that eleven of these UN staff members have still been in Houthi detention.

A fresh statement from the Iran-aligned Shia militant group has accused the detained UN aid workers of being spies for the US and Israel.

"Those who were arrested from among the United Nations employees are accused of spying for the American and Israeli aggression," an official Houthi statement said. "Whoever has the accusations against them confirmed will be referred to trial."

Yemeni security sources have further rounded up dozens of other people "on suspicion of collaborating with Israel" they recently told AFP. 

This has been a long-running problem, as other UN workers have already long been in detention in Yemen:

The United Nations envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, said in a statement: "I strongly condemn the new wave of arbitrary detentions of UN personnel today in Sanaa and Hodeida... as well as the forced entry into UN premises and seizure of UN property."

He said that "at least 11 UN personnel were detained" and demanded that they be "immediately and unconditionally" released.

The Houthis were already detaining 23 UN personnel, some since 2021 and 2023, he added. In January, the Huthi rebels detained eight UN workers.

The WFP still says it is "urgently seeking additional information" concerning those newly detained.

Israel officials and media described that Israeli intelligence had monitored the gathering of Houthi leaders in real time on Saturday, just before the strike. 

#Houthis Claim Detained #UN Staff Are “Spies” Involved in Assassination of Their Governmenthttps://t.co/SD8fh5UjgH pic.twitter.com/XnvsJ3aqBG

— Yemen Monitor-EN (@YeMonitorEN) September 3, 2025

Like in Iran, it is very probable that Mossad and IDF military intelligence do have assets and spies inside Yemen. However, it's unknown whether any would be embedded in UN programs, but this is for sure a tactic which has been used by various foreign intel services in the past - utilizing NGOs to penetrate a country.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 18:00

The Drop In Yields Is Good News For Countries Forced To Deny They Need An IMF Bailout

By Bas van Geffen and Elwin de Groot, strategists at Rabobank

After some difficult trading sessions, ultra-long bonds appear to have caught a bit of a break.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that US labor demand is diminishing. The quits rate had already stabilized around the 2% level, as fewer people are voluntarily leaving their job for a better opportunity elsewhere. More recently, the number of vacancies is now also declining – both in the private sector and in government– and layoffs have been edging higher through July.

The JOLTS report corroborates the employment report that got the Commissioner of Labor Statistics fired, and it further supports the case for a rate cut this month. Yes, there’s still the August non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which should give a more up-to-date view of the labor market. But will that single data point really change the Fed’s course after Powell’s Jackson Hole address?

Accordingly, the soft JOLTS data triggered some USD depreciation, as rates across the yield curve fell. The decline in 30y Treasury yields from 5% to 4.9% may also ease some of the pressures on global governments. The rise in ultra-long US rates was echoed in countries like Japan and the UK. The yield on 30y JGBs reached a record-high 3.29% on Wednesday, but the bonds are currently back off those lows. The 30y Gilt came within a whisker of 5.75%, before retreating some 15bp. And although investors remain cautious amidst concerns about debt sustainability and rising global yields, Japan’s 30-year bond auction concluded today without major hiccups.

That’s great news for those finance ministers that are now having to deny their respective countries will soon need to call the IMF for a bailout. Yet, the decline in yields is not a substitute for fiscal consolidation – without which investors will remain skittish.

If the Financial Times is to be believed, Trump’s tariffs are now a key factor keeping Treasury investors on board. According to the paper, the tariff revenues are seen as a crucial income stream that offsets the costs of the Big Beautiful Bill. And recall that both S&P and Fitch recently conceded that tariff revenues for the US federal government were one factor that prevented them from downgrading the sovereign.

Recently, the Court of Appeals ruled against the Liberation Day tariffs, arguing that the emergency powers law did not give the US president the legal authority to impose these tariffs. The Trump administration is appealing this decision before the Supreme Court, and the enforcement of the earlier ruling has been delayed until the Supreme Court can review the case. So, pending the Supreme Court decision, tariffs remain in effect. But if Trump loses this appeal, that key source of revenue would quickly dry out. Undoubtedly the administration will already have alternatives up its sleeve –with sectoral tariffs a key candidate– but it would unleash a new wave of uncertainty that could sap confidence.

And those US import tariffs, and the capriciousness of policymaking in Washington are also leading to changes elsewhere, some of which may have strategic importance.

This week’s warm embrace between Russian President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi and the latter’s visit to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit to improve relations with Beijing suggests that strategic by-effects could ultimately be a formidable ‘anti-US’ bloc that may bring together military power, manpower and economic/technological power in the future. A lot of water would still have to flow through the Moskwa and the Jangtse, but it is not something to simply brush away.

Europe is taking a much more cautious approach. It accepted a trade deal that was largely ‘dictated’ by the US. But on other fronts, it is also trying to hedge its bets. Next to working on strengthening its internal market and planning a significant acceleration in defence and infrastructure spending in the coming decade, the EU is looking to strengthen trade ties with other nations.

There appears to be some progress on the latter, in particular the negotiations with the Mercosur bloc (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Politico reported yesterday that France has given up its resistance against the deal after obtaining reassurances, specifically on the monitoring of imports of beef and poultry. And the Polish, who had been sceptical of the agreement as well, are acknowledging that they won’t be able to form a blocking minority. That things have been moving forward on this front can be explained by the geopolitical pressures. As Trade Commissioner Šefčovič conceded: “In today’s uncertain geopolitical climate, diversifying our supply chains and deepening partnerships with trusted allies, partners and friends is not a luxury. It is a necessity.”

Speaking of Argentina, the country is accusing “a Chinese bank” of manipulating the peso exchange rate. According to the government, the bank deliberately took advantage of the low liquidity during the US holiday on Monday to put significant pressure on the peso. “This wouldn’t have happened with a BRICS-currency”?

Meanwhile, China is looking for ways to stabilize its domestic markets. According to Bloomberg’s sources, the financial regulator is concerned about the rally since early August – with some echoes from the 2015 crash, perhaps. Last month’s rally may largely be financed by margins. The outstanding balance of margin trades rose significantly, raising concerns about retail exposures and speculation on the Chinese markets. Regulators are reportedly considering their options to cool equity markets, and to discourage speculative activity in favor of more sustainable growth.

The gains in Chinese equities stand in sharp contrast to the headlines that suggest that relentless competition on selling prices could start claiming victims in various sectors, from car manufacturers to the solar power industry.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 17:40

New 'Sextortion' Spyware Snaps Webcam Photos Of People Watching Porn

If you're indulging in adult content online, you might want to slap some electrical tape over your webcam pronto, according to a new report from WIRED. Cybersecurity experts at Proofpoint, a battle-tested firm, just dropped a bombshell detailing a nasty new strain of “infostealer” malware called Stealerium. This open-source digital menace can hijack your webcam to snap photos, snoop on your browser for NSFW keywords, and capture screenshots of anything spicy - all of which could be weaponized for blackmail and extortion schemes that’ll leave victims reeling.

“When it comes to infostealers, they typically are looking for whatever they can grab,” Proofpoint researcher Selena Larson told WIRED, exposing the chilling reality of this cyberthreat. “This adds another layer of privacy invasion and sensitive information that you definitely wouldn't want in the hands of a particular hacker.”“It’s gross,” Larson fumed. “I hate it.”

WIRED has more:

More hands-on sextortion methods are a common blackmail tactic among cybercriminals, and scam campaigns in which hackers claim to have obtained webcam pics of victims looking at pornography have also plagued inboxes in recent years—including some that even try to bolster their credibility with pictures of the victim's home pulled from Google Maps. But actual, automated webcam pics of users browsing porn is “pretty much unheard of,” says Proofpoint researcher Kyle Cucci. The only similar known example, he says, was a malware campaign that targeted French speaking users in 2019, discovered by the Slovakian cybersecurity firm ESET.

Larson laid bare the sinister tactics of sextortion spyware, which preys on individuals for profit while flying under the radar. “For a hacker, it’s not like you’re taking down a multimillion-dollar company that is going to make waves and have a lot of follow-on impacts,” she said. “They’re trying to monetize people one at a time. And maybe people who might be ashamed about reporting something like this.”

The malware’s creator, known as witchfindertr, identifies as a “malware analyst” based in London. To top it all off, Stealerium is freely available as an open-source tool on GitHub.

Despite the rapid pace of innovation in cyberhacking tools, spyware-driven sextortion cases remain uncommon.

In 2013, Cassidy Wolf, a 19-year-old Miss Teen USA, became a victim of sextortion involving spyware. Her former high school classmate, Jared James Abrahams, used malware to remotely control her webcam, capturing nude photos and videos without her knowledge. Abrahams then emailed Wolf, threatening to publish the compromising material unless she sent more explicit images or videos. Instead of complying, Wolf reported the threats to her mother, who contacted the police. The FBI investigated and found Abrahams had hacked into as many as 150 accounts, targeting multiple victims. Abrahams was arrested and sentenced to 18 months in federal prison for hacking and extortion.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 17:20

Satellite Images Show Major Construction At Israel's Nuclear Site

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Satellite images show construction work on a major new facility at the nuclear site near Dimona, Israel, the location of Israel’s secret nuclear weapons program, The Associated Press reported on Wednesday.

Israel is believed to have somewhere between 90 and 300 nuclear warheads, but the real figure is unknown since both Israel and the US do not officially acknowledge that the nuclear stockpiles exist. Israel is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and its secret weapons program is not subject to any international inspections.

The nuclear reactor in Dimona, southern Israel. via Flash90

The ambiguity around Israel’s nuclear weapons program allows the US to provide military assistance without worrying about the Symington Amendment, a foreign assistance law that prohibits aid to countries that traffic in nuclear enrichment equipment or technology outside of international safeguards.

The Dimona nuclear site in the Negev Desert, known formally as the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, has had a heavy water reactor operating there since the 1960s.

"That heavy water reactor, experts say, provides Israel with the plutonium for its nuclear weapons as well as the isotope tritium. That isotope is used to boost and also miniaturize nuclear weapons down to fit onto missile warheads," said AP reporter Jon Gambrell in a video report.

Gambrell said that experts and AP’s own analysis of the satellite images "show that this project could be any number of things, including, what experts say, could be a new heavy water reactor that could allow Israel to potentially build more nuclear weapons or potentially service the ones they already have."

The report said that the heavy water reactor at Dimona has been operating far longer than similar reactors from the same era, suggesting it may need to be replaced or retrofitted soon.

Daryl G. Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association, told AP that if it is a new heavy water reactor, then Israel is "seeking to maintain the capability to produce spent fuel that they then can process to separate plutonium for more nuclear weapons, or they are building a facility to maintain their arsenal or build additional warheads."

The report comes a few months after Israel and the US launched a war on Iran under the pretext that Tehran may be moving toward developing a nuclear weapon, a claim that lacked evidence. Amid the scrutiny of its civilian nuclear program, Iran has frequently pointed to the fact that Israel does actually have a secret nuclear weapons program, and that Israel is not an NPT signatory.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 17:00

Traditional TV Suffers Summer Of Hell As Advertisers Scramble 

Labor Day weekend is behind us. Some households have returned from the beach, the mountains, and lake towns, and schools are now back in session. With summer officially winding down and everyday life returning, traditional television faces a critical test this fall: reversing the massive ratings collapse it suffered over the summer. 

Building on our previous reporting via two Goldman notes (here & here) and one UBS note (here), the consumer shift away from traditional cable and satellite TV toward streaming platforms has accelerated.

For the first time in 15 years, UBS analyst John Hodulik confirmed in early July that streaming officially surpassed traditional TV in terms of consumption. 

Next, we noticed Goldman's Nielsen tracker, which provided further evidence that cord-cutting accelerated at the end of summer and continued through August. 

The latest Nielsen tracker data was published by a team of Goldman analysts led by Michael Ng on Tuesday.

Data for the week ending August 31 was yet again bleak:

We update our summary of total day cable ratings (L3, target demos) to capture network viewership performance across the cable universe. In 3Q25-to-date (through week ending August 31) total day ratings declined at DIS (-14%), PSKY (-23%), FOX (-19%), WBD (-26%), AMCX (-35%), and CMCSA (-48%). 

The full story doesn't end here. Pro Subs can see the entire report (here). 

For advertisers, traditional TV ratings collapse is another blow: the viewership base is dwindling, leading some marketers to scramble for new, innovative platforms to reach consumers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 16:40

J.Crew-Anon & The Mainstreaming Of Dissent

Authored by Cooper Davis via The Brownstone Institute,

During a recent family vacation over lobster, I watched my “vote blue no matter who” aunt, herself a paragon of New England liberal sensibilities from a leafy suburb outside Boston, argue with her Fox News–watching, burn-it-all-down brother about recent goings-on at HHS. “Just because Fauci lied about Covid,” she said, “doesn’t mean all science is fake; there’s something worth saving here.”

Meet J.Crew-Anon: affluent, educated, professional, skeptical but not nihilistic. They still read the Times and the Journal, but also subscribe to multiple Substacks and are daily imbibers of less “safe” publishers, like Brownstone.org. They triangulate. They parse information with friends and peers, seeing fact-checkers as either dangerous or useless or both. They are more interested in steelmanning the opposition than shouting it down. Having left one echo chamber—the legacy media consensus—they are wary of entering a new one. They know the dangers of epistemic bubbles, and they prize conversations that test their skepticism rather than simply confirm it. They can be angry, but not anarchic. They have mortgages, careers, kids, PTA meetings—and a deep distrust of institutions that used to feel unshakable.

If this archetype sounds unfamiliar, it may be because your friends and colleagues aren’t comfortable enough yet to reveal the depth of their own skepticism. J.Crew-Anon thrives quietly, often hidden in plain sight, surfacing only when the cost of dissent has fallen low enough to make honesty safe.

What J.Crew-Anon represents isn’t entirely new. Up until the early 2000s, the United States had a vibrant anticorporate, antiauthoritarian left that acted as a watchdog against pharmaceutical, corporate, and governmental overreach. Ralph Nader’s consumer rights campaigns, feminist health collectives publishing Our Bodies, Ourselves, and ACT UP confronting the FDA and NIH during the AIDS crisis all carried the same distrust of official reassurances, and the same heated insistence that ordinary people could see through corporate spin.

That movement didn’t disappear, but it was blunted by the professionalization of NGOs, captured by the Democratic Party’s neoliberal consensus, and gradually domesticated into policy shops. But its sensibility never dissipated. What we are seeing now is its reemergence in unexpected form. J.Crew-Anon revives that watchdog instinct, this time distributed across suburbia, podcasts, Substack feeds, and social networks, rather than marches and union halls.

As of 2025, what was previously called the mainstream media is no longer mainstream. A growing swath of ordinary folks—educated, suburban, professional—have quietly lost confidence in legacy information outlets, and the institutions and industries they have long served.

Speaking as executive director of Inner Compass Initiative, I can say that the movement of which we are a part is made up of completely normal, mostly non-ideological people, looking critically at the mental health system and working towards its reform, along with building parallel frameworks of succor and support. Many of us have learned the hard way that the experts don’t always know everything, but there’s not a single person among our ranks who feels all credentialed expertise is worthless, or that non-experts are right by default.

Among us are doctors, lawyers, town planners, small business owners, pilots, CEOs and teachers. We are indistinguishable from other broad demographics, such as “people who prefer cats more than dogs” or “people who like spicy food.” But now that broad outlook—distrust in legacy authority of all sorts—is spreading.

J.Crew-Anon exists not just because so many narratives once dismissed as “conspiracies” have turned out to be true. The second-order effect is that denial or minimization of these “inconvenient truths” is no longer a prerequisite for being invited to the neighborhood BBQ. Over the last 12–18 months, the social cost for defecting from the world depicted by legacy media and adjudicated by Harvard and Yale has been reduced to less than nothing across much of the middle and upper classes.

I don’t need to list off the various egregious counterfactuals here, but suffice it to say that the “wrong opinion” is no longer the same thing as the “actually true opinion,” and examples abound. The Twitter Files revealed government–tech collusion. Monsanto’s glyphosate cover-ups, PFAS contamination. Social media’s own architects admitting their platforms cause immense harm. Even opposition to Covid school closures, once derided, is now treated as laudable in the New York Times itself.

Closer to my own vantage point, the issue of psychiatric drug withdrawal offers an instructive vignette: For decades, patients who struggled to come off antidepressants were told withdrawal didn’t exist. Over the last couple years, we’ve seen a growing consensus across mainstream media that SSRI withdrawal not only exists, but might actually contribute to climbing rates of diagnosis (due to withdrawal symptoms being mistaken for “relapse” of depression, anxiety, or whatever the drug was originally prescribed for).

In response to this shift in public sensibility, industry pushed out a sham review in the form of Kalfas et al.’s JAMA Psychiatry paper, dismissing the problem as minor. But only a month prior, Awais Aftab, in the pages of the New York Times itself, explicitly warned against this exact folly by pointing out the obvious: if the field refuses to acknowledge what patients have come to experience for themselves, they should not then be surprised that those same people decide, occasionally with gusto, that RFK, Jr. does a better job of looking after their health and safety than the APA does. Can you blame them?

Psychiatric withdrawal is just one instance of a much older pattern. In the era of Ralph Nader’s consumer crusades or ACT UP’s battles with the FDA, ordinary citizens forced institutions to acknowledge what they had long denied. The difference now is scale. Where once denial and reversal were confined to niche activist domains, today the cycle—grassroots exposure, institutional minimization, reluctant admission—runs through psychiatry, nutrition science, pandemic response, and even foreign policy. That expansion of scope is what makes the current moment qualitatively different.

This is the environment that gave rise to the MAHA movement. It is not a top-down, anti-science reactionary crusade, as critics caricature it, but a crowdsourced, populist response to scientific and medical authority overextending itself to the point of credibility collapse.

Every issue in the coalition—psychiatric drug harm (including but not limited to withdrawal), environmental toxins, nutrition guidelines, food safety, digital addiction—has its own movement: its own subculture, heroes, villains, court cases, history. In the past, grassroots movements like these would coalesce quietly, then events in the news would eventually force a broader acknowledgement of their existence. Once they made some noise, industry took notice, and used media, professional guilds, and lobbying to marginalize them. Once securely placed in the “kooky corner” with the other “anti-” types, they often faded as leaders aged out, factions turned insular, and institutions co-opted whatever inoffensive, non-threatening energy and ideas they possessed.

The internet has altered that cycle: forums, Subreddits, Facebook groups—archives of lived experience, link dumps and independent research that do not vanish, but accumulate, compound, and refine. The next generation inherits a body of knowledge instead of starting from scratch. Whether that makes the emergent movements and political coalitions more durable remains to be seen. But it does make them more obvious.

Politics, at its core, is transactional: find a constituency, hear its grievances, and represent it in exchange for support. Kennedy’s only innovation was listening to the growing ranks of people convinced that the healthcare system itself is inflicting needless harm. Had he not done so, someone else would have. That inevitability—not his persona—made him a vehicle for the energy of J.Crew-Anon.

From this perspective, MAHA might be best understood as a window into a vast, loosely collected ecosystem of people and organizations that are, at this moment, attempting to march in lockstep for shared goals: informed consent, regulatory capture, industry overreach, etc. Like any insurgent movement, it already carries barnacles: opportunists, cranks, hangers-on. Whether it can scrape them off is an open question. If not, more established and disciplined institutions will siphon off bits and pieces on the promise of more effective representation. Either way, the underlying constituency is real, and it isn’t going away, and those who don’t understand what it is—or who it is—are already in danger of losing their own credibility.

For any such unfortunates reading this, a cheat sheet: J.Crew-Anon is not programmatically conservative, though they share suspicion of media and bureaucracy. They are not progressive, even though they live in liberal metros and heartily support diversity and pluralism. They are not centrist, if centrism means deferred trust. They are something else: a post-institutional middle.

They are educated, mid-career professionals—often suburban or urban upper-middle class. They still work demanding jobs, raise kids, join HOAs, shop at Costco, play pickleball. But they no longer believe that institutions have credibility. Instead, they filter information through group chats, endless online sources, and their own judgment. They are pragmatic, not utopian. Skeptical, not anomistic. They respect individual autonomy. They know institutions lie—but they also know truth exists and is worth salvaging. That balance—conditional trust, selective belief—makes them powerful.

What’s striking is not that they believe wild things, but that they now take for granted knowledge once known only to obsessives: sugar myths, saturated fat controversy, the concerning pervasiveness of endocrine disruptors and PFAS and glyphosate, the revolving door between regulators and industry, the opioid crisis as a consequence of captured agencies, dopamine-driven design in social media, clinical trial corruption and conflicts, even the (potential) epidemic of psychiatric drug withdrawal.

Examples of this stripe of credible-but-not-credulous, people abound: NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya is perhaps the highest profile one; Jillian Michaels and Andrew Huberman on health; Nina Teicholz and Gary Taubes on nutrition and food; Marc Andreessen and David Sacks from the VC world; journalists like Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi, who shifted from prestige outlets to exposing collusion between government and media; Walter Kirn and David Samuels channel this sensibility into County Highway, which one might consider the flagship chronicle of this cultural shift.

Examples aside: these people manage to straddle mainstream consensus reality while also recognizing that much of it is an illusion. J.Crew-Anon is a new gestalt, not perfectly reflected in a single character. It is a new intellectual and political class that, unlike others, is prone to growth but unlikely to shrink. Once you’ve migrated to the side of skepticism, you tend not to regain your faith in institutions, and the J.Crew-Anon template is for people who don’t need to trust institutions in order to make use of them, or even care deeply about them.

But because of its preoccupations with superficial acronyms and characters, the establishment itself is still failing to understand what it is dealing with. The gleefulness with which they herald dysfunction among the high-profile expressions of these ideas is unchecked by any awareness that this is a bottom-up movement, largely fueled by fairly recent defectors from the political left. Instead, every sign of dissidence is rendered as some version of a pesky, top-down, “right-wing fascism” or MAGA.

Perhaps the mainstream press, the institutions, and the still-credulous among the populace are holding onto hope that this is a temporary spasm of weirdness that will fade away in the coming years. There does seem to remain a chortling conviction that “normal” will return to the land in time. But that will not happen. “Normal” hung on as long as it could in a post-internet era, and ultimately blew away after Covid pulled up the last few remaining stakes holding down the threadbare tent of 20th century consensus reality. 

The question is not whether J.Crew-Anon exists. It does. The question is who it will select as its champions, and to what end. Whether its ascendance will be enough to quell the growing rebellion from working-class ranks who are not nearly as polite, elitely educated, or establishment-adjacent as their J.Crew-Anon neighbors remains to be seen.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 16:20

DOJ Opens Grand Jury Criminal Investigation Fed Governor Lisa Cook Over Mortgage Fraud Allegations

The Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook - and has issued multiple subpoenas as part of the inquiry into whether she committed mortgage fraud, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing 'officials familiar with the matter.'

(Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

The probe - for which a grand jury has been assembled, will begin by looking at Cook's properties in Ann Arbor, Michigan and Atlanta. It comes on the heels of two criminal investigations from Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte, who has been dropping receipts for weeks with evidence that Cook committed fraud - including claiming two properties as her "primary residence" - as well as claiming that a rented out third property was her 'second home' - all things that would qualify her for better rates and tax treatment. 

Pulte accused Cook of misleading banks on multiple mortgage applications to receive favorable lending terms, such as lower interest rates, typically given to a buyer who intends to occupy the home they purchase. 

A judge is considering Cook’s request for an emergency order stopping her from being removed from the Fed board while the case proceeds. The Fed’s next meeting is set to begin Sept. 16. -WSJ

Last Thursday, Cook filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration after President Donald Trump fired her that Monday 'for cause.' Among the excuses contained in the lawsuit for alleged mortgage fraud was a possible clerical error. 

Except, Cook described herself in her 2023 nomination hearing as having "significant experience in banking and finance, as is evidenced by my service on the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and of a Community Development Financial Institution in Michigan, in addition to my employment at an investment bank and a large commercial bank." 

What's more, the Federal Reserve Act allows the president to fire Fed governors 'for cause' - which the Trump administration claims applies. In a Tuesday court filing, Cook's lawyers said she "did not ever commit mortgage fraud."

Pulte shot down any notion that the fed wasn't political in a Thursday appearance on CNBC, saying "I don't believe for the last 4 years that the Fed has been independent." 

.@pulte: "I don't believe for the last 4 years that the Fed has been independent...

You've got Lisa Cook who's being represented by Norm Eisen. Norm Eisen is the guy who tried to TAKE DOWN Trump, failed at it, but led the first impeachment... This is a raging Democrat." pic.twitter.com/7yZFoJlBeC

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 4, 2025

According to the report, the DOJ investigation involves Ed Martin, a top DOJ official who AG Pam Bondi designated to investigate mortgage fraud among public officials.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 16:10

Trump's Fed Pick Stephen Miran Commits To Central Bank Independence

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s nominee to temporarily serve on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, committed to preserving the central bank’s independence in testy exchanges with senators.

Trump announced his nomination of Miran, the current head of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, early last month to temporarily fill the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler.

Appearing before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, Miran expressed the necessity for monetary policy independence as lawmakers centered their questions on the Federal Reserve’s autonomy.

“In my view, the most important job of the central bank is to prevent depressions and hyperinflations. Independence of monetary policy is a critical element for its success,” he said in his opening remarks on Sept. 4.

“I will act independently as the Federal Reserve always does,” Miran told senators, adding that he welcomes listening to a diverse array of opinions “to challenge my own views and interrogate them.”

Democratic senators, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), were unconvinced, stating that Miran would serve as a proxy for the president and erode Fed independence.

Accentuating her point, Warren asked Miran whether he thought Trump had lost the 2020 presidential election and if he believed the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July jobs numbers had been manipulated.

Miran replied that President Joe Biden “was certified by Congress” and that the federal agency has struggled with deteriorating data quality.

“Dr. Miran, you have made clear that you will do or say whatever Donald Trump wants you to do or say,” Warren, the top Democrat on the committee, said.

“That may work in a political position, but it takes an axe to Fed independence, and will make life far more expensive for Americans.”

Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) questioned whether administration officials, “formally or informally,” had asked Miran to vote to lower interest rates.

“No,” Miran answered.

Miran is likely to be confirmed as Republicans control the Senate Banking Committee and hold 53 seats in the upper chamber. All Senate GOP lawmakers voted to confirm Miran, who served in the president’s first term, to chair the president’s key economic advisory group.

Still, many of them encouraged Miran to stay committed to doing what he thinks is right rather than following the wishes of politicians.

“There’s nothing wrong with politicians in Washington offering their opinions. You can’t stop them,“ Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told Miran.

”But we need a monetary plan that was put together by something other than vodka and darts, and that’s what we have the Federal Reserve for.”

His ascent to the Fed Board could happen before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on Sept. 16 and 17. Investors overwhelmingly anticipate that monetary policymakers will vote to lower interest rates by a quarter point for the first time since December. The institution has been on hold this year to determine the potential effects of Trump’s sweeping global tariff plans.

If confirmed, Miran would serve on the Fed Board only until Jan. 31, 2026. Trump could then renominate Miran to complete a full 14-year term or select another individual for the position.

Miran revealed that he would only be taking an unpaid leave of absence from the White House because his term would only last four months. He noted that he would resign if nominated for a longer term.

This sparked further scrutiny from Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), who called it “ridiculous.”

“You are going to be technically an employee of the president of the United States, but an independent member of the board of the Federal Reserve,” Reed said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 15:20

House Approves Establishing New Committee To Investigate Jan. 6 Capitol Breach

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. House of Representatives on Sept. 3 approved the establishment of a new committee to investigate the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol.

In a 212–208 vote, the House approved a rule that wrapped in the new panel as well as a provision endorsing the House Oversight Committee’s investigation into deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Included in the rules package was a resolution by Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) authorizing the creation of the panel, which will be chaired by Loudermilk. The new panel falls under the jurisdiction of the House Judiciary Committee.

It’s the second panel approved by Congress to investigate the events on the day of and leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach, during which a crowd of President Donald Trump’s supporters attending the “Stop the Steal” rally entered the Capitol.

The incident delayed the vote to certify President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election. Lawmakers reconvened to finish the proceedings after the crowd had been cleared from the building.

The vote fulfills a promise made by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) at the start of the 119th Congress to form a new subcommittee on the subject, as its Democrat-led predecessor had long faced allegations of bias and partisanship.

The resolution to authorize the new panel was introduced by Loudermilk—who was targeted for investigation by the previous Jan. 6 panel for a tour he gave of the Capitol complex in the days ahead of the Jan. 6 rally—a day before the House left for its August recess.

In a statement ahead of the recess, Johnson, who gave his backing to the bill, said, “House Republicans are proud of our work so far in exposing the false narratives peddled by the politically motivated January 6 Select Committee during the 117th Congress, but there is clearly more work to be done.”

Johnson said that the resolution would allow Congress to “continue our efforts to uncover the full truth that is owed to the American people.”

The first panel was approved by Democrats in 2021. Controversially, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) did not allow then-House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to select which Republicans would sit on the panel.

Instead, Pelosi chose two Republicans critical of Trump to sit on the panel: Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) was named ranking member, and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) was also appointed to the GOP side.

The panel was highly critical of Trump, concluding in their final report that he was responsible for the events of the day and failed to take appropriate action to disperse the crowd after they entered the building.

Trump has maintained that he was not responsible. He and his allies have pointed to the administration’s offer to send National Guard to the Capitol ahead of the Jan. 6 rally. According to then-House Sergeant at Arms Paul Irving, a request from the Capitol Police for National Guard support was denied because Pelosi “would never go for it.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 14:40

Despite Von Der Leyen Story Unraveling, Russia Accused Of Widespread GPS Jamming Over Baltic Sea

Swedish authorities on Thursday have alleged that Russia is behind a sharp rise in GPS interference over the Baltic Sea which has increasingly impacted aviation, creating a potentially dangerous situation for civilian travel in the region.

The Swedish Transport Agency announced a surge incidents involving disruptions to global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), such as GPS. It issued a figure of just 55 cases in 2023 to 733 so far this year.

"We’ve conducted long-term analyses and gathered extensive data. Our conclusion is that the interference originates from Russian territory," the agency’s head of aviation, Andreas Holmgren, was cited in AFP as saying.

SAS Scandinavian Airlines

"This poses a serious threat to civil aviation, especially considering the scale, duration, and nature of the interference," Holmgren added.

The Swedish agencies pointed to jamming and spoofing techniques - the latter which involves sending false location data. Media reports say the incidents were initially limited to the Scandinavian country's eastern airspace over international waters, but now the interference has become broader.

These new major allegations come after Russia has vehemently denied it engaged in GPS jamming of a plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as it prepared to land in Bulgaria on Sunday:

Bulgarian officials have denied claims they suspected Moscow of jamming the GPS of a plane carrying European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, days after the Commission cited Bulgarian authorities as suggesting the incident was "due to blatant interference from Russia."

The country’s Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov told parliament on Thursday that von der Leyen's plane had not experienced "prolonged interference or jamming."

In a statement made later the same day, Zhelyazkov said that even though no jamming had been detected by "ground instruments," it didn't exclude the possibility of "onboard devices" detecting jamming.

EuroNews and others have noted this is a major U-turn on the claims, making the whole episode highly suspect and dubious. The plane landed safely, but EU officials quickly blamed Russia for the alleged interference, and yet days later the whole story seems to be unravelling fast.

Did Von der Leyen and her team just completely fabricate it? The Bulgarian government as of Thursday is denying the entire basis of the claims:

"There is no need to investigate the situation, because these disturbances are neither hybrid nor cyber threats."

According to the same report, "In an interview with Bulgarian channel bTV, Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Grozdan Karadjov denied that the government had submitted any information on the matter to the European Commission, contradicting the Commission's assertion that Bulgarian authorities suspected the disruption was the result of the Kremlin's hybrid warfare."

Don't expect the mainstream media to be quick to offer corrections or walk-backs...

A couple days ago, the FT hyped a "Russian active measures" hoax claiming Russia jammed the GPS on von der Layen's plane. The story has already unraveled, but no correction from the FT. It all feels so Trump-1st termy. pic.twitter.com/LOzc1YnlTq

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) September 4, 2025

This could be another case of a media trend that we and others observed starting years ago - how Putin and Russia apparently seek to 'weaponize everything' - though most often, evidence for such claims are lacking.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 14:20

Trump Tells Supreme Court He Will Appeal In E. Jean Carroll Case

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump plans to ask the Supreme Court this fall to overturn a civil jury verdict that found he sexually abused writer E. Jean Carroll and defamed her, his attorneys said in a new court filing.

Trump’s intentions were revealed in an application docketed by the nation’s highest court on Sept. 2.

In the application, his lawyers asked the court to extend an upcoming Sept. 10 deadline for filing a petition to challenge the $5 million verdict to Nov. 10. The application was directed to Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who handles urgent appeals from New York.

Trump “intends to seek review” of “significant issues” arising out of the trial and what he termed the “erroneous” ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit that affirmed the verdict, according to the application.

On June 13, a divided Second Circuit denied a rehearing in the case.

Circuit Judges Steven Menashi and Michael Park dissented from the ruling.

“These holdings conflict with controlling precedents and produced a judgment that cannot be justified under the rules of evidence that apply as a matter of course in all other cases,” Menashi said in a dissent joined by Park.

Trump’s attorney in the case, Justin D. Smith of James Otis Law Group LLC in St. Louis, Missouri, said more time was needed to file the petition.

“Undersigned counsel faces a significant press of business due to many upcoming deadlines,” Smith said.

Carroll gave evidence during a 2023 trial that Trump attacked her in 1996 in a dressing room in a Manhattan department store near the Trump Tower.

In its May 2023 verdict, the federal jury held Trump liable for sexually abusing Carroll and defaming her when he made statements in October 2022 denying her allegations.

The jury awarded Carroll $5 million in damages.

In another lawsuit filed by Carroll, a federal jury ordered Trump to pay $83.3 million in damages over statements he made in 2019 denying the sexual assault allegations.

A three-judge panel of the Second Circuit affirmed the verdict in December 2024, rejecting Trump’s argument that the trial judge’s ruling invalidated the trial by allowing others who accused Trump of sexual abuse to testify. Three women said Trump carried out similar acts against them in 2005 and the 1970s. Trump denied the allegations.

“President Trump has consistently and unequivocally denied Carroll’s allegations in both cases,” the new application said.

Carroll obtained the $5 million award based on “incorrect findings,” after which the federal district court “wrongly” interpreted the law and “improperly [prevented] President Trump from contesting the merits in that action,” the filing said. After that, Carroll secured the “unjust judgment of $83.3 million,” the application said.

“We do not believe that President Trump will be able to present any legal issues in the Carroll cases that merit review by the United States Supreme Court,” Roberta Kaplan, Carroll’s attorney, said on Sept. 3

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 14:00

University Of California Illegal Immigrant Hiring Ban Is "Discriminatory", Court Rules

Authored by Sam Korkus via The College Fix,

The University of California system is discriminating against illegal immigrant students by refusing to hire them for on-campus jobs, a state court ruled.

However, immigration experts criticized the decision, with one calling it a “mockery of the law.”

The ruling last month found the university system violated a state law which prohibits discrimination on the basis of immigration status. However, it did not require the universities to hire illegal immigrant students.

“We conclude that the University’s employment policy facially discriminates based on immigration status and that, in light of applicable state law, the discriminatory policy cannot be justified by the University’s proffered reason,” the three-judge panel of the California Court of Appeals ruled.

“Our writ does not require the University to take any specific action, let alone one that will necessarily place the University community at risk,” the opinion stated.

“The option the University identifies—a declaratory judgment suit against the federal government—is one that remains available to it in response to this writ,” the judges wrote.

“We merely require that the University not rely on litigation risk alone as the justification for its facially discriminatory policy.”

The university argued it could not hire illegal immigrant students because it might invite legal action from the federal government. The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 prohibits employers from hiring illegal immigrants.

University of California Los Angeles’ Center for Immigration Law and Policy brought the lawsuit. The center previously has advocated for the University of California system to remove its prohibition on the hiring of illegal immigrants. Legal scholars Hiroshi Motomura and Ahilan Arulanantham argue the 1986 federal law does not specifically designate government entities as “employers.”

Neither responded to an emailed request for comment on the ruling in the past week. In 2024, the UC system disbanded a task force created to study the legality of hiring illegal immigrants, as reported by The Daily Bruin. In 2024, Gov. Gavin Newsom also vetoed legislation to allow for the hiring of illegal immigrants, citing potential legal problems.

The UC system also did not respond to a request for comment on Aug. 18.

A former attorney for the Department of Homeland Security said the University of California system would likely win a federal case if it argued the 1986 law applies to it. This is a proposal the university system brought up during litigation. 

The court also did not say the university must hire illegal immigrant workers.

“The court merely ruled that 1) UC’s policy of refusing to hire unauthorized aliens is discriminatory under California law,” George Fishman, now a senior legal fellow with the Center for Immigration Studies, told The College Fix via email. 

The court also ruled the university system “needs to reconsider its policy based on proper criteria” and the policy “cannot be justified by the University’s proffered reason.”

“I am confident that, in the end, federal courts will rule that IRCA does indeed apply to States as employers, just as Congress intended in 1986,” Fishman said.

A senior legal fellow at the Heritage Foundation criticized the ruling as well.

“Federal law, which trumps any state law to the contrary, prohibits any employer from hiring illegal aliens,” Zack Smith told The Fix via email.

He previously served as the Assistant United States Attorney in the Northern District of Florida, according to his bio.

“This is another absurd ruling by activist judges that makes a mockery of the law. Hopefully this decision will be overturned in short order,” Smith said.

“In the meantime, California universities would be prudent to continue following all applicable federal laws.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 13:20

Ether Exchange Reserves Fall To 3-Year-Low As ETFs, Corporate Treasuries Soak Up Supply

Authored by Nate Kostar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ether supply on centralized exchanges has plunged around 38% since 2022, as billions flow into spot ETFs and corporate treasuries ramp up their ETH holdings.

Ether (ETH) reserves on centralized exchanges have fallen to the lowest level in three years as demand grows from investment funds and corporate buyers.

According to data from CryptoQuant, reserves have dropped by nearly 10.7 million ETH since peaking at around 28.8 million in September 2022. Holdings now stand at about 17.4 million ETH, with roughly 2.5 million ETH leaving exchanges in the past three months alone.

The shrinking supply comes as new channels for Ether exposure have gained traction. Spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs), launched in July 2024, have since attracted net inflows of more than $13 billion, according to CoinGlass data. Between June and August, the funds pulled in over $10 billion in net inflows, led by a record $5.4 billion in July alone.

Corporate treasuries are also driving demand. Several publicly traded companies have announced ETH treasuries over the past few months, with regular corporate purchases affecting the token’s supply on exchanges.

Ethereum exchange reserves - All exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

ETH Treasury companies on the rise

SharpLink Gaming emerged as one of the earliest public companies to pivot its reserves into Ether in 2025. Backed by a $425 million private placement, the company launched a treasury strategy in May, with holdings in late August reaching 797,704 ETH, worth about $3.5 billion at this writing.

In July, BitMine Immersion Technologies also joined the trend, revealing it had accumulated about 1.86 million ETH — roughly 1.5% of the token’s total supply. A third major entrant, The Ether Machine, announced in September 495,000 ETH in holdings and an upcoming Nasdaq listing.

According to data from Ethereum Treasuries, 17 publicly traded companies are known to hold Ether on their balance sheets, collectively controlling more than 3.6 million ETH.

One key appeal of ETH as a reserve asset is its ability to earn yield, a Bitfinex analyst told Cointelegraph. “Unlike Bitcoin, ETH is both a macro asset and a productivity asset, generating yield via staking and securing over $100 billion in tokenized assets across L2s and DeFi.”

Staking is the process of locking up cryptocurrency to help secure a blockchain network and, in return, earning rewards paid out in that same token.

On Tuesday, Ethereum’s staking entry queue has climbed to its highest level since 2023, with 860,369 ETH worth about $3.7 billion waiting to be staked.

ETH moving into ETFs

Alongside corporate treasuries, Ether is also being absorbed by spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The products saw a slow start after their US debut in 2024, but demand picked up this July as a friendlier regulatory environment for crypto assets supported renewed institutional interest.

That surge is led by BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum ETF (ETHA), which has become one of the fastest-growing ETFs on record, with assets worth over $16 billion on Tuesday.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, spot ETH ETFs collectively hold about $24 billion in assets under management (AUM).

US Ether ETFs. Source: CoinMarketCap

Some analysts believe the demand reflects more than short-term speculation. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer of Sygnum, recently told Cointelegraph:

After an extended period of underperformance relative to Bitcoin and a souring investor sentiment, Ethereum has recently experienced a significant revival in the recognition of both its adoption rate and value proposition.

According to Dori, staking is the next frontier for Ether ETFs. “If spot ETH ETFs were permitted to stake their holdings… the ability to accrue an additional yield within a well-established, regulated and exchange-traded structure would likely make these products more attractive and attract additional assets.”

Unsurprisingly, several ETF issuers have recently moved to add staking features to their Ether funds.

BlackRock filed through Nasdaq to add staking to its iShares Ethereum ETF, while Fidelity has amended its spot Ether ETF proposal to allow a portion of assets to be staked.

The SEC is expected to rule on staking features by October, when final application deadlines come due.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 12:40

WTI Holds Losses After Big Surprise Crude Build

Oil prices continue to decline on concerns that OPEC+ will once again bolster supply at a meeting on Sunday, compounding fears of higher volumes later in the year.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak subsequently said OPEC+ will “look at the current situation as a whole” before making a decision.

Several delegates from the group said it has yet to decide on how to proceed.

Additionally, API reported a surprise (though small) build in crude inventories

API

• Crude +622k (-3.4mm exp)

• Cushing

• Gasoline -4.57mm

• Distillates +3.68mm

DOE

• Crude +2.415mm (-3.4mm exp)

• Cushing +1.59mm - biggest build since Mar 2025

• Gasoline -3.795mm - biggest draw since Apr 2025

• Distillates +1.68mm

The official DOE data shows a very mixed bag with a big surprise crude build, large jump in stocks at the Cushing Hub and a big draw in gasoline stocks....

Source: Bloomberg

With the addition of 509k barrels to the SPR, total commercial crude stocks rose for the first time in 3 weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production remains near record highs despite the plunge in rig counts...

Source: Bloomberg

Algorithmic traders also may have contributed to oil’s slide on Thursday. Trend-following commodity trading advisers have been steadily selling crude since reaching “buying exhaustion” at the $65-a-barrel level, “creating just a few ripples and weighing on prices,” according to Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD Securities.

“We think a tidal wave is coming next,” Ghali said.

“We expect that algos are now set to imminently sell a massive 40% of their maximum size.”

WTI traded down to two week lows ahead of the official inventory and supply data...

Bloomberg reports that US oil has retreated more than 10% this year as OPEC+ has boosted production targets at a rapid clip to reclaim market share from rival drillers. At the same time, producers from outside the alliance have ramped up output, while concerns about demand have intensified as the Trump administration imposed a wave of trade tariffs.

The combination has spawned widespread predictions for a glut that will swell global stockpiles, pushing many investors to the sidelines until clarity on OPEC’s output plans is achieved this weekend, brokers say.

“We still see the current oversupply in oil markets intensifying,” Samantha Dart, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in a note, forecasting Brent in the low $50s in late 2026.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 12:08

Schiff, Johnson, Collum On Trump’s Trade Wars

LIVE NOW

https://t.co/dhOGAvwTtX

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 4, 2025

*****************

Will Trump’s trade moves prove brilliant or blow up in America’s face? ZH readers likely know where die-hard Austrian Peter Schiff stands: as the world’s largest importer, the U.S. has no cards to play. But as Brent “Dollar Milkshake” Johnson has long argued, “the world isn’t Austrian”, the dollar’s network effect will not easily be broken, and sometimes American belligerence works… whether we like it or not.

Tonight at 7pm on the ZH home and X account, the two will duke it out while the great Dave Collum moderates.

Tariffs are not about Trade they are about Power and Sovereignty and National Security https://t.co/u9GnTqhrxc

— Santiago Capital (@SantiagoAuFund) July 7, 2025

Ahead of the debate, here’s where Trump’s tariff (and threat of tariffs) stand with some of the largest U.S. trading partners:

Canada & Mexico

• Broad-based 25% tariffs were imposed starting March 4, 2025—but thanks to USMCA exemptions, over 85% of cross-border trade remains unaffected.
• Canada suspended most retaliatory tariffs after receiving exemptions, though around 70% of its own tariffs on U.S. goods remain active per Canadian officials.
• U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs were doubled to 50% by June; Canada countered with plans for additional retaliatory measures if talks falter.
• Courts are challenging the administration's emergency-authority-based tariffs.

China

• Trump raised tariffs incrementally—from 10% in February/March to a sweeping 34% “reciprocal tariff” in April.
• China responded with equal tariffs (34%) on U.S. imports plus bans and export restrictions on rare-earth elements.
• Earlier this week the US announced it will require TSMC to get special permits for the import of its products manufactured on the Chinese mainland.

India

• Trump has slapped a proposed 50% tariff on Indian imports, partly due to India's continued Russian oil purchases.
• Analysts (e.g., ICRIER) warn that 70–87% of Indian exports to the U.S. could be severely affected.
• India–Russia relations are strengthening in contrast, with Russia offering support amid U.S. pressure.

Japan & South Korea

• Tariff relief promised in exchange for investment and purchases (e.g., reducing auto tariffs from 25% to 15%) has not been formally enactedl.

EU & UK

• While some “partial exemptions” or reductions were negotiated with the EU and UK, these remain inconsistently documented.
• For the UK, there's a looming threat of semiconductor tariffs up to 200–300%, though no enforcement has occurred yet.

Brazil

• As of August 1, a 50% tariff on Brazilian products is in force. Brazil has filed a complaint with the WTO and imposed retaliatory duties under its Trade Reciprocity Law.
• Trump framed it as retaliation against Brazil’s judicial actions against Bolsonaro—but the U.S. actually ran a substantial trade surplus with Brazil in 2024.

We'll see you tonight at 7pm ET, right here on the ZH homepage and X account. It will also stream via our YouTube. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 11:25

Chinese Stocks Crash After Beijing Seeks To Contain Bubble: What Happens Next

China’s equity rally lost steam in the past few sessions, with the Shanghai Composite sliding -1.3% and losing the 3800 level just 9 days after breaking above it and breaking out above the historic trendline we pointed out two weeks ago. The index is now down 3 days in a row, the longest such streak since May. 

The sell off today was triggered by a Bloomberg report of China’s financial regulators mulling cooling measures for the market after a US$1.2t rally stoked worries of a speculative frenzy a la 2025 style. Policymakers are reportedly considering moves such as the removal of short-selling restrictions and the introduction of other measures to curb speculative trading.

To be sure, none of this is not new: as Goldman HK trader Fred Yin writes this morning, since late last week there were already signs that regulators are trying to cool the temperature on the rally. This however, did not come from the government - as a reminder, in China's centrally planned markets everything is officially sourced - but from "people familiar" so this is almost certainly a plant by someone who missed the China rally and hoped to spark a selloff to get in cheaper. It also expains why the National Team stepped in at the close today to lift stocks - why would they do that if they wanted to hammer the bubble risk?

In any case, some brokers last week raised its margin requirement although it was not an industry-wide action, while over 400 mutual fund products have either announced a halt or cap in subscriptions in August. CSRC Chair Wu Qing signaled determination to ensure stock market stability at a symposium this past weekend, pledging to consolidate the “positive momentum” of the market, while promoting “long-term, value, and rational investing”. 

Sure enough, Goldman points out that a list of ETFs favored by state-backed funds (“National Team”) saw elevated volume vs 20d average (translation: China was actively stepping in to prop up markets). However it was nothing extreme, suggesting the correction is still within comfort level for regulators 

Tech/innovation names were most hard hit: STAR50 had its 4th largest single day loss since inception in Jul 2020

Source: BBG as of 4Sep25, past performance not indicative of future results

AI infrastructure / data centers / semis / humanoid robots all suffered losses, result of perhaps extreme crowdedness 

Cambricon (which we profiled two weeks ago as China's Nvidia) sank 14.5% on the day, bringing its YTD gains to just +82.7%

Adding to the risk-off sentiment, Chinese auto giant BYD (002594) cut its annual sales target by 16% due to intense competition and cooling demand, resulting in -3% slide and extending the recent selloff. 

There are some bright spots however: China Solar basket +2.3% was top performing theme after an executive from a leading polysilicon producer said the sector has likely bottomed out

Over on the Goldman high touch execution desk, Yin writes that China A was by far the largest net sold market in the region. Notional traded was over 2x the 4w daily average for a very busy day. The outflow was driven almost entirely by Long Onlies, selling concentrated within Consumer space, ongoing selling namely in EV space stood ou . In addition LOs also sold Industrials / Info Tech and only net bought Utils / Healthcare. Hedge Funds skewed seller too but in smaller size, focusing selling in Healthcare / Info Tech instead.

On the derivs desk, as broader market has corrected for 3 consecutive sessions and falling through 20dma, we are seeing two way traffic in spot (profit taking vs fresh dip buying). Also worth noting is the rotation in size factor since mid-August, which is to some extent correlated to quants performance. Futures basis reverts higher. Even though such inverse spot/basis dynamics observed recently dampens realize volatility, fixed strike vols are in strong bid over the day especially around the afternoon dip. Goldman thinks spot can continue to trade choppy due to thin spot/futures liquidity so convexity remains favorable to own, even though they seem hard to carry on a close-to-close basis. 

Below are illustrative buy/sell flows in major markets on the bank's high touch desk:

Source: GS GBM as of 4Sep25, past performance not indicative of future results

It is worth noting that with the notable exception of 2014-2015 “crazy bull” market rally, Chinese equity market has mostly kept pace with underlying economic conditions. Yet this time around things are showing early signs of stress, or as the Goldman trader puts it, "perhaps the market is getting slightly ahead of the fundamentals." We were less politically correct:

We got ourselves another bubble folks. pic.twitter.com/5kDJmhPmHl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 25, 2025

Upcoming data releases will be key to watch on whether the economic recovery is on track, including trade data (Sep 8), inflation (Sep 9), and new loan trends (Sep 12) 

Taking a step back though, risk appetite remains positive, with activity level remaining extremely high. For a 17th day in a row, turnover in A shares exceeded 2t yuan, the longest stretch on record 

Outstanding margin balance earlier this week climbed to 2.28t yuan, surpassing the previous record of 2.27t yuan record set in 2015.

Source: BBG as of 4Sep25, past performance not indicative of future results

GS PB data shows Chinese equities last month with long buys dominating the flows. 

A-shares led both net and gross activity. H-shares and ADRs saw net inflows led by short covers.

Flows into China equity funds picked up, with US$4.1b of net buying last week being the largest since Apr

That’s still unlikely to meaningfully address the fact China is still the most U/W market for EM funds (active only)

This chronic U/W to China could trigger a flurry of inflows from global allocators, especially with other major markets trading close to ATHs

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 10:45

Wary Of Gasoline Shortage, California Pauses Price-Gouging Penalty On Oil Companies

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

California regulators fearing a dramatic drop in gasoline supply placed a five-year pause on Gov. Gavin Newsom’s penalty on oil industry profits Aug. 29.

The decision is a blow to Newsom’s legislation aimed at penalizing the oil industry for allegedly driving up the state’s gas prices in 2022.

California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda said the state must shield motorists from price spikes at the pump even as it tries to transition to clean-energy fuel sources for transportation.

The commission says the pause on its penalty program was needed to further study the industry.

“We believe this additional time will increase industry confidence enough to secure investments in refinery maintenance and is therefore a prudent way to ensure employee safety and maintain a safe, reliable, affordable supply of fuel during this critical point in the transition to a carbon-free transportation system,” a spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email Sept. 2.

California drivers continue to pay the nation’s highest prices at the pump, with the cost exceeding the national average by more than a dollar per gallon, according to the federal Energy Information Administration.

Fuel demand in the state has slowly dwindled since 2019 as more Californians switch to electric vehicles, but the decrease in demand is not fast enough to keep up with even sharper drops in the state’s fuel supply as refineries continue to leave.

The state would need to increase overseas crude imports, possibly creating serious delays in fuel for consumers, which is what prompted staff to propose the regulatory pause, reported Drew Bohan, the energy commission’s executive director.

The agency also hasn’t been able to prove Newsom’s claim that the oil industry was gouging.

“The data at this point is just not sufficient to indicate that there’s ongoing market manipulation, or a structural failure, that would justify immediate regulatory intervention,” Bohan said.

The decision sparked criticism from Consumer Watchdog, a California-based nonprofit that supported Newsom’s price-gouging law in 2023.

“Gov. Newsom and the Energy Commission have abdicated their responsibility to protect consumers from price gouging,” the group’s president, Jamie Court, said in a statement. “By taking away the hammer of a penalty, the administration will leave consumers vulnerable to the same price spikes and profit spikes that struck in 2022. Gov. Newsom will be as much to blame as the oil refiners for the next price spikes because he left this job unfinished.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in the rotunda of the Capitol in Sacramento on March 28, 2023. Courtesy of the Office of Governor Gavin Newsom

The group also believes Newsom’s administration is “tying the hands” of the next governor by imposing the five-year freeze.

Western States Petroleum Association, a trade group advocating for the oil industry, said the commission’s five-year pause was a step in the right direction, but it fell short of the group’s recommendations.

“While today’s action by the CEC stopped short of a full statutory repeal or a 20-year pause, it represents a needed step to provide some certainty for California’s fuels market,” association President Catherine Reheis-Boyd said in a statement provided to The Epoch Times.

According to Reheis-Boyd, the decision showed the energy commission understood how the policy would have impacted future investment in the state’s refineries.

Vehicles pass a gas station in Rosemead, Calif., on Sept. 23, 2024. Frederic J. Brown/AFP

Newsom and Democratic state legislators suspended regular operating rules to rush through the regulations in less than a week in 2023. Those regulations put in place extensive oversight and new reporting regulations for oil companies, and gave the energy commission the authority to issue fines and penalties for excessive profits.

Upon signing the law, Newsom said they proved they could “beat big oil.”

The commission has not approved penalties since the regulations passed.

The commission’s move last week followed months of handwringing by California lawmakers after a second major oil refinery—Texas-based Valero Energy Corp.—announced in April its departure from the state.

Houston-based oil giant Phillips 66 announced last October that it plans to close one of the company’s two Southern California refineries at the end of 2025.

A tank at the Valero Wilmington Oil Refinery adjacent to the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles in the Wilmington neighborhood of Los Angeles on April 10, 2025. Patrick T. Fallon / AFP

The closures mean a loss of 17 percent of California’s refining capacity—a huge loss for a state that is mostly cut off from the rest of the nation’s fuel supplies and must import oil from overseas.

The refinery closures will leave more than 20 million gas-fueled vehicles in California with only seven refineries to produce specialized blends required by state regulations.

Beyond the penalty pause, Newsom’s administration is also proposing to temporarily streamline approvals of new wells in existing oil fields in an effort to maintain a stable fuel supply.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 10:25

'Soft' Survey Data Shows US Services Surging... And Plunging In August

Following the rise in US Manufacturing surveys earlier in the week, US Services sector surveys were expected to show slight improvements

• S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 54.5 (August final) from 55.7 in July and August flash of 55.4.

• ISM US Services PMI rose to 52.0 from 50.1 in July (better than the 51.0 exp) - the best ISM Services print since Liberation Day

And all that as 'hard data' went nowhere...

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood of the ISM beat we saw New Orders soar, employment stagnate, and price fears ebb modestly...

Source: Bloomberg

Spot the odd one out...

Source: Bloomberg

“Although weaker than signaled by the preliminary ‘flash’ PMI reading, and below that seen in July, the expansion of the service sector in August was still the second strongest recorded so far this year," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Together with a robust manufacturing PMI reading, the surveys are consistent with the US economy growing at a solid 2.4% annualized rate in the third quarter."

“Fuller order books, reflecting a summer upturn in customer demand, has meanwhile encouraged service providers to take on additional staff in increasing numbers, accompanied by a return to hiring in the manufacturing sector," but then Williamson says, somewhat confoundingly:

"While low household confidence is reportedly keeping spending on consumer services relatively subdued, demand for financial services is showing especially strong growth amid improving financial market conditions.

However, the brighter news on current economic growth and hiring is marred by concerns over future growth prospects and inflation.

"Business optimism regarding the year ahead outlook has dropped to one of the lowest levels seen over the past three years amid escalating worries over the uncertainty and drop in demand caused by federal government policy, most notably tariffs, as well as the associated rise in price pressures. Inflation concerns have been fanned by a further steep rise in input costs which have fed through to another marked increase in average charges for services.

“The survey data therefore point to some downside risks to growth in the coming months while signaling upside risks to inflation, as import tariffs feed through to prices charged for both goods and services.”

With tariffs on everyone's minds still:

For now,. as is usual, the market is more focus on the ISM data (which improved significantly).

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 10:06

Saudi Arabia Leads OPEC Output Increase

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

OPEC crude production rose by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, reaching 28.55 million bpd, according to a Bloomberg survey published on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia accounted for just over half of the increase, restoring barrels previously curbed under voluntary cuts. The United Arab Emirates and Nigeria also contributed, while Libya managed modest gains as security conditions improved around key terminals.

The production rise comes as OPEC+ ministers are preparing to meet this Sunday, with speculation building that the alliance could authorize an additional increase beyond the already-scheduled unwinding of voluntary reductions. Those rumors pressured prices earlier this week, with Brent slipping as traders digested reports of a potential supply ramp-up.

The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading down at $63.00 per barrel following the release of the Bloomberg survey...

The moves highlight market sensitivity to even modest shifts in OPEC output, particularly as inventories in the U.S. and Europe remain above seasonal averages.

Internal dynamics within OPEC+ are also in focus. Kazakhstan boosted its August production by more than 2% compared to July, stretching beyond its quota, while Iraq continued to lift exports despite ongoing disputes with the Kurdistan Regional Government, demonstrating the challenge of maintaining compliance as prices incentivize members to bring additional barrels to market.

With roughly 1.65 million bpd of voluntary curbs still on the books, according to OPEC+ agreements, the bloc retains a solid buffer of withheld supply.

Saudi Arabia and Russia account for the bulk of these pledged reductions, while smaller portions are spread across Kuwait, the UAE, and Kazakhstan.

The upcoming Sunday session will revisit how quickly those barrels might be reintroduced, and whether the pace should differ among members that have already been producing above target.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 09:45