Iran-Linked Iraq Militia Says It Is Resuming Attacks On US Forces

The prior period of constant attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria which corresponded with the opening first half of Israel's operations in Gaza could soon resume, after a Sunday incident saw at least five rockets fired on an American base in northeastern Syria. 

The Iraqi militant group Kataib Hezbollah - which has close ties with Iran claimed responsibility, and more importantly announced that it is resuming attacks on US bases in the region.

US occupation of Syria, file image

Reuters described that "Two security sources and a senior army officer said a rocket launcher fixed on the back of a small truck had been parked in Zummar border town with Syria." 

"The military official said the truck caught fire with an explosion from unfired rockets at the same time as warplanes were in the sky," the report continued. There were no casualties, according to regional correspondents.

The military official subsequently said: "We can’t confirm that the truck was bombed by US warplanes unless we investigate it"—strongly suggesting the Pentagon's response was almost immediate, and that air power was deployed.

Crucially, Sunday's incident marked the first such attack on a US base since early February. At that time Iranian militia leaders ordered their fighters to temporarily stand down. That order held, given there hasn't been any notable attack in two months before this weekend.

NEW: Following reports of a rocket attack on a U.S. base in Syria a U.S. official tells Fox News 5+ rockets were fired from Iraq into Syria near a U.S. base. No U.S. service members were killed or injured & there was no damage to the base. It is unclear if the base was the target

— Liz Friden (@Liz_Friden) April 21, 2024

The Guardian notes further of the timing of this fresh attack:

It comes one day after Iraq’s prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, returned from a visit to the United States and met with Joe Biden at the White House.

Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah said Iraqi armed groups had decided to resume attacks on the US presence in the country after seeing little progress on talks to achieve the exit of American troops during al-Sudani’s visit to Washington.

“What happened a short while ago is the beginning,” the group said.

On Monday, following Sunday's brief rocket attack on the US base near the Iraq-Syria border, there was another assault - on the Iraqi side of the border.

"Another attack on US forces in the region in the last hours, now on Al Assad base in Iraq," according to Walla News, as cited in news wires. There are unverified reports of US military helicopters airborne over the area and that a response is ongoing.

During the three to four months following the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack, there were an estimated over 150 drone and rocket attacks against US bases in Iraq and Syria. Among these was the attack which killed three Americans and wounded 40 others at an outpost along the Jordan-Syria border.

President Biden had in the wake of the Jordan outpost attack ordered airstrikes on Iran-linked militia positions, and following the tit-for-tat, Kataib Hezbollah's stood down. However, events of this weekend strongly suggest things are about to ramp up again, also as Iraqi and Syrian government officials have long sought to see Pentagon troops finally expelled from their sovereign territories.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 18:40

If You’re A Criminal, This Is the County To Avoid

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Across a six-decade career, beginning as a 16-year-old ambulance driver to his ascension as America’s most renowned lawman, Grady Judd has made one thing clear.

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd at the PCSO Emergency Communications Center in Winter Haven, Fla., on April 2, 2024. (Edward Linsmier for The Epoch Times)

He’s that guy, that old-school sheriff whose tough-talking press conferences garner national attention, but he’s also a lifelong student of integrating new-school techniques with emerging technologies, a pioneering innovator in administration, and a conscientious mentor who lives as he leads.

And so, on this April afternoon, Mr. Judd, 70, is looking back on 54 years in public service by doing what he’s always done, looking forward.

He’s prioritizing goals for his sixth term as sheriff of Polk County, a 2,000-square-mile sprawl of Central Florida sawgrass savannah between Orlando and Tampa that’s doubled in population in a decade.

His new term officially begins in January but it actually began the February day he filed to run, instantly clinching his third-straight unopposed re-election.

There’s plenty of time to talk about the past but, right now, he told The Epoch Times, “There’s plenty of work to do over the next four years in keeping crime down.”

Mr. Judd said the 1,800-employee Polk County Sheriff’s Office (PCSO), which includes 1,100 deputies, 1,330 vehicles, and a 2,500-bed jail with a $236 million budget, will be busy doing just that every day, all day, while taking on two initiatives.

He is launching a program to help keep the mentally ill out of jail, a chronic national urgency that defies easy solutions, while training a unit to combat the next great global crime challenge: artificial intelligence (AI).

“Right now, AI is capable of emulating voices. Right? So we’re going to have to protect the community from false AI allegations and keep evil parasites from attacking us from within as well as internationally,” he said, noting it’s the first such unit created by a local law enforcement agency in the United States.

A pressing focus everywhere, he said, is to “reduce the need” for first-responders to be roadside therapists in protecting the mentally ill from themselves and others, and to find alternatives to using jails as primary—and often only—sources of medication for many with mental health issues.

As a newly-minted deputy in 1974, he recalls, those arrested exhibiting mental problems were housed in a regional hospital where inmate patients were treated.

“Fast-forward to today” and his deputies don’t have that option, Mr. Judd said.

“The state and federal government did away with mental hospitals. So where did those mentally ill end up? They ended up in prison, in county jail lockups. They ended up underneath overpasses, sleeping behind buildings, out in the woods.”

Prisoners fill out paperwork before receiving a COVID-19 vaccination in Cleveland, Miss., on April 28, 2021. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Institutional options narrowed as pharmaceutical solutions expanded, he said. Advocates for the mentally ill argued, “They have a constitutional right not to be incarcerated’ and, ‘Oh, we have these new medicines. They just have to take the medicines.’”

Good concept, Mr. Judd said, bad plan.

“Where do we find them to give them their medicines? And, oh, you’re not going to provide medicines? How’re they going to afford it? It’s very expensive” especially for mentally ill people living “out in the woods,” he said.

So he has a plan—and $1 million in seed money from Polk County commissioners to provide court-mandated medications for itinerant offenders.

“We’re in the infant stages of that. We’ve gotten total cooperation from everyone,” Mr. Judd said of a coalescing coalition that includes providers, the courts, state attorney’s office, public defenders, and advocates for the mentally ill. “That’s pretty remarkable that everybody says, ‘Yes, let’s do this.’ It’s a win-win for everyone.”

In an age of polarity, a “win-win for everyone” is a rare air that Grady Judd exudes.

He’s doing what he’s wanted to do since he was 4, what he believes God put him here to do, to protect the place where he was born, raised, and lived his whole life, where he married his high school sweetheart and raised two sons, where he pioneered crime-fighting tactics in a changing world while never wavering from fundamental truths such as right from wrong, good from bad.

In exchange, Polk County got the right sheriff at the right time, a leader to meet the challenges posed by growth as it evolved into an urbanizing I-4 corridor where 100,000 new people have arrived each of the last three years.

And yet, unincorporated Polk County’s 2023 crime rate of 1.06—one per 100 residents—is less than half the state’s rate and lowest since the metric was created in 1971, lower than when it had three times fewer people and 88 percent less than when it had half as many people.

A “win-win” for all—except criminals.

“I’m blessed to live God’s mission for me,” Mr. Judd said. ”All I’ve ever wanted to be was sheriff—the sheriff of Polk County.”

Sheriff-in-Waiting

Raised in a Lakeland subdivision of cinder block homes without air conditioning, Mr. Judd shows office visitors a black-and-white 1954 photo of him sitting on an uncle’s lap. His uncle was White County, Tenn., Sheriff Joe McCoy, but it was Grady Judd wearing the sheriff’s star.

Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd at the agency's emergency communications center in Winter Haven, Fla., on April 2, 2024. The sheriff will begin serving his sixth term in 2025. (Edward Linsmier for The Epoch Times)

He was the cop when playing ‘cops and robbers’ with childhood friends, grew up watching TV shows such as ‘Dragnet’ and ‘The Andy Griffith Show,’ and was scanning police radio frequencies and mastering codes at 12.

As he told The Epoch Times in November 2023, his father, a Cadillac dealership service-manager, was a church deacon. “I was raised in the church,” he said. “We were sometimes the first to arrive and the last to leave.”

Faith, his “guiding light,” compelled him to be a relentless teenager in informing the sheriffs office he’d be joining them soon and someday be the boss.

As a high school junior in 1970, he was hired as a $1.65-an-hour ambulance attendant in Winter Haven. He helped deliver a baby at 16 and at 17, convinced the notoriously recalcitrant musician George Jones, in a drunken rage, to get into his ambulance, later admitting he had no idea who the world-famous country star was.

After going to high school by day, finishing his ambulance shift at night, Mr. Judd hung out at the sheriff’s office, effectively forcing them to hire him two months after graduation as a dispatcher despite a minimum-age requirement of 21.

He remembers July 21, 1972, a humid, storm-stirred Friday night, his first shift at Bartow’s Hall of Justice, which “housed the entire justice system” and “one teletype computer.”

Richard Nixon was president, Reuben Askew was governor of Florida, gas was 34 cents a gallon, ‘The Godfather’ was a box office hit, Bill Withers’ ‘Lean On Me’ topped the charts.

Two months later, Mr. Judd married his fiancé, Marisa, also 18 and also newly hired at a municipal finance department. They lived on combined salaries of $550 a month. They’ve been together since.

When legislators waived the 21-year-old requirement to be a law enforcement officer. Mr. Judd convinced Sheriff Brannen—the icon of his youth—to send him to the state’s police academy. Just before he turned 20, he was sworn in as the first-ever PCSO deputy under 21.

He hit the road as a 19-year-old deputy in February 1974 in a green-and-white Ford Galaxy and a pistol his father had to buy because state law precluded him from doing so. Nevertheless, as Mr. Judd says, “The rest is history.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 18:20

Congress Passes New Iran Oil Sanctions But Biden Unlikely To Enforce Them

Over the weekend, as part of the $95 billion package providing funding for aiding Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan which passed by a vote of 360-58 on Saturday, the US House also passed new sanctions on Iran’s oil sector set to become part of a foreign-aid package, putting the measure on track to pass the Senate within days.

The legislation, as Bloomberg reports, would broaden sanctions against Iran to include foreign ports, vessels, and refineries that knowingly process or ship Iranian crude in violation of existing US sanctions. It would also would expand so-called secondary sanctions to cover all transactions between Chinese financial institutions and sanctioned Iranian banks used to purchase petroleum and oil-derived products.

About 80% of Iran’s roughly 1.5 million barrels of daily oil exports are shipped to independent refineries in China known as “teapots,” according to a summary of similar legislation.

Yet while the sanctions could impact Iranian petroleum exports - and add as much as $8.40 to the price of a barrel of crude - they also include presidential waiver authorities, according to ClearView Energy Partners, a Washington-based consulting firm.

"President Joe Biden might opt to invoke these authorities, vitiating the sanctions’ price impact; a second Trump Administration might not," ClearView wrote in a note to clients.

Amrita Sen, founder and research director of Energy Aspects, agreed and told Bloomberg Television in an interview that Biden's Administration is unlikely to “strongly enforce” the restrictions in an election year.

“I think all sanctions are sanctions on paper, with anything that remotely causes oil prices to go up, I don't believe they will enforce it strongly,” the research analyst told Bloomberg.   

“What I really want to highlight is this is a US election year, so let’s not kid ourselves,” the analyst noted.

By not kidding ourselves, he meant that when it comes to democratic, liberal ideals, it's all bullshit when they conflict with self-serving interests of the demented deep state puppet roaming the halls of the White House.

Moreover, China is buying most of Iran's crude oil exports, and the majority of buyers in the world’s top crude oil importer are the independent refiners, the so-called ‘teapots’ in the Shandong province, which are not connected with the U.S. financial system in any way.

Therefore, the U.S. doesn’t have any means to enforce sanctions on China’s independent refiners for buying Iranian crude oil, Sen told Bloomberg. The teapots will continue to import Iran’s crude, while any new restrictions could take up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil off the market, she added.

Crude oil exports from Iran hit the highest level in six years during the first quarter of the year, data from Goldman recently showed.

Iran is producing record amounts of oil, enabling it to pay for missiles, drones and whatnot, as Biden refuses to enforce Trump's sanctions against Iran oil exports afraid an oil price spike would further crush his approval rating pic.twitter.com/eeX0OnwYBA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 15, 2024

The daily average over the period stood at 1.56 million barrels, almost all of which was sent to China, earning the Islamic Republic some $35 billion.

"The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention,” Fernando Ferreira, head of geopolitical risk service at Rapidan Energy Group, told the FT. “If the Biden administration is really going to have an impact, it has to shift the focus to China."

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 18:00

Markets Can Absorb Geopolitic Risks, To A Point

By Michael Msika and Jan-Patrick Barnert, Bloomberg Markets Live reporters and strategists

Geopolitics is having an impact on investment decisions again, and risks are rising as well as equity volatility. Yet under the hood, the stock market is absorbing the shock relatively well so far.

Stress levels have had a steep surge as tensions in the Middle East show no sign of abating. Systematic funds are reducing exposure, technicals are showing some cracks, but the big picture for markets hasn’t changed much. In fact, price action on Friday almost seems mild, with a rise in oil prices reversing. Market breadth has cooled, both at a stock and index level, with just a 3% drop this month.

“This seat has been very busy, but hasn’t seen signs of panic,” says Carl Dooley, head of EMEA trading at TD Cowen. “While optically we see indicators such as the VIX print at similar levels to last October when markets were lower and realized volatility was higher, other indicators we track, such as the demand for crash protection, haven’t moved. It has all felt very orderly and technical.”

After the market was focused on chasing the upside, there is a more balanced approach to volatility. The pressure from funds selling options is now being matched by options demand from investors hedging positioning. This is “keeping the risk environment far more two-way than anytime in recent history,” says Nomura’s Charlie McElligott.

US stocks are down about 4.5% over six trading days. That’s a relatively chilled decline given the severity of headlines coming from the Middle East, especially compared to some of the sudden, more elevator-like moves in 2022 and in the summer of 2020. Even Nvidia, the biggest bullish bet in this market, is just down 20% after a 600% gain.

There’s no talk about emergency meetings to reduce risk and no signs of hasty investment decisions. Commentary from trading desks about hedge funds and other buy-side flows is still carrying a notion of dip buying and is far from a sell everything market. Granted, risk taking is getting a bit of a re-think, positioning is being adjusted along with other thematic indexes that soared in 2024 but now show big 5-day declines.

Trend followers such as CTAs are a potential wild card, with their still elevated exposure. But their reaction depends on stop-loss levels being breached, and so far both the market reaction and the impact on prices have been reassuring.

“Leverage concerns about CTAs are easing,” say Societe Generale Sandrine Ungari, adding that positioning has been reduced, while breakpoints, the percentage move needed on the asset for CTAs to reduce exposure, are now less negative. In addition, CTAs are diversified across asset classes, so losses in equities would have been offset by gains in commodities and FX. “A portfolio that allocates equally across asset classes is flat to slightly up,” she says.

The VIX curve has flipped into concern levels as previously mentioned in this column, and the steep rise is similar to early 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Yet the very low base line of stress is keeping markets well below panic levels at this point.

“Further developments in the Middle East remain subject to increased uncertainty,” says Deka Investment CIO Christoph Witzke. “As a fund manager, I am paying particular attention to the reaction of the oil price and the US dollar. So far, the movement has been muted. If this remains the case, we are currently more likely to see a recovery in equities over the next few days/weeks than the emergence of a new downtrend. The longer-term framework remains quite constructive.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 17:40

Activist Who Called On Trans Women To "Arm Up" Enraged By Conservative Media Coverage

Is biological men forcing their way into women's bathrooms really a hill worth dying on?  Transgender activist "Tara Jay" (originally named Thomas Jay White) seems to think so.  A year ago Thomas made a TikTok that went viral, calling on trans women (men) to 'arm up' and be ready to die (or possibly kill) in the event that they are prevented from using public bathrooms reserved for legitimate females.  The tirade was posted in response to people who asserted they would never allow a man to enter a woman's lavatory while their daughters were present.  Thomas claims this would be 'the last mistake they ever make.'  Here is the original screed:

It probably doesn't need to be noted that White does not look remotely like a woman.  Despite this, he considers himself a woman as well as a Poly Trans lesbian using she/her/hers pronouns, meaning, he is still a man that is attracted to women sexually. His call for activists to purchase guns and be ready to "die on the hill" of access to women's bathrooms was used widely by conservative media personalities as a clear example of the unhinged nature of the trans movement. 

As is common among such activists, rather than taking stock of his statements and realizing how insane they sound, White has doubled down recently and posted a new response threatening specific conservative commentators with "a knock on their door" (ostensibly in the form of lawsuits) should they continue with their scrutiny of his videos and background.

Radical trans activist who threatened people who would question him using the women’s bathroom is threatening people again. He specifically mentions me, Tim Pool, Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh, and Steven Crowder. “You’re gonna get a knock on your door.” pic.twitter.com/SpF1P1nkiB

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 21, 2024

The trans movement increasingly represents people who are already deeply disturbed and unstable, people who latch onto trans identity as a way to act out on their darker impulses thinking they will be protected because of their status.  Then there are the people who simply want as much attention as possible.

Nearly every major study on the psychology of people identifying as trans, or as gender dysphoric, has found the majority have been diagnosed with at least one mental illness besides a disconnection from their gender.  Notably, trans women (men) had far higher rates of narcissism than the societal average.  Around 0.5% of the regular population is inclined towards narcissism - The trans woman population is 10.4% narcissistic.  That's a massive separation.   

This greatly helps to explain the behaviors of many trans activists and clarifies why it's important to keep such people in check rather than giving them whatever they want in the name of "inclusion."   The growing militancy of trans activists is merely an extension of the growing militancy of the far left in general.  The problem is not so much that they claim they're willing to fight for what they believe in; it's that what they believe in is oppression of the majority and the deconstruction of normality for the sake of their ideology.

It's not enough for people to tolerate trans activists - Everyone is required to embrace them, affirm them, celebrate them and submit to their every demand.  And, if you don't submit, then you're a "bigot" and thus fair game for violent retaliation.      

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 17:20

No Evidence FBI Used Counterterrorism Tactics on Catholics: Government Watchdog Report

Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An independent governmental watchdog investigation concluded that there was no evidence to support that the FBI was targeting Catholics based on a leaked memo.

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) presides over a hearing of the Weaponization of the Federal Government Subcommittee in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on Feb. 9, 2023. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The Department of Justice’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) issued a congressional report on Thursday outlining its findings in a 120-day investigation into a 2023 FBI memo that implied a link between Catholicism and violent extremism.

The Richmond, Virginia’s FBI field office disseminated the memo the OIG called the Richmond Domain Perspective (DP) which purportedly connected “Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists” (RMVEs) to “Radical Traditionalists Catholic” (RTC) ideology, the report stated.

“FBI Richmond assesses the increasingly observed interest of RMVEs in RTC ideology almost certainly presents new opportunities for threat mitigation through the exploration of new avenues for tripwire and source development,” the memo stated.

The Republican-led House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government published a 2023 report stating that any information about the memo—which was later retracted—was deleted.

The Subcommittee’s report argued that the memo shows a political bias toward Catholics through its use of “counterterrorism tools” to target them as “potential domestic terrorists.”

“The Committee and Select Subcommittee discovered that the FBI relied on at least one undercover agent to develop its assessment and the FBI even proposed developing sources among the Catholic clergy and church leadership,” the Subcommittee’s report stated. “Not only did the FBI propose to develop sources, but it already interviewed a priest and choir director affiliated with a Catholic church in Richmond, Virginia for the memorandum.”

The Subcommittee’s report said the ordeal is a “cause for concern.”

According to the OIG, during its investigation, it “considered concerns expressed by Members of Congress that FBI Richmond more broadly targeted Catholics who attend traditional Latin mass or hold pro-life or other conservative views in an effort to identify domestic terrorists, including by placing undercover agents or confidential human sources (CHS) in churches or interviewing clergy and other church employees.”

‘Domain Analysis’

The formation of the DP was driven by an investigation into who the OIG named “Defendant A,” a suspect indicted on federal charges and who later entered a guilty plea.

“As a part of its intelligence program, the FBI conducts ‘domain analysis’ to assess how changes in environmental variables—such as demographics, infrastructure, or technology—may result in new threats or impact the FBI’s ability to mitigate existing threats,” the OIG said.

The FBI agents involved in the investigation and drafting of the DM told the OIG that they “acknowledged that all religious beliefs are protected by the First Amendment” and that the allegation that they were targeting Catholics is “patently false,” the OIG reported.

The agents told the OIG that they chose the RTC term because the suspect in the investigation referred to himself as a “rad-trad Catholic clerical fascist” on his social media profile and that the term appeared frequently online.

The OIG referenced a previous FBI Inspection Division (INSD) report which found that “although there was no evidence of malicious intent or improper purpose,” the agents “failed to adhere to analytic tradecraft standards and evinced errors in professional judgment, including that it lacked sufficient evidence or articulable support for a relationship between RMVEs and so-called RT ideology.”

The OIG said the initial INSD report—which “examined a broader range of issues than our limited review”—also concluded that the agents’ DM created “the appearance that the FBI had inappropriately considered religious beliefs and affiliation” as a basis for its investigation.

However, OIG’s investigation found no evidence of “discriminatory or inappropriate comments” about the Catholic religion or any of the churches that were connected with the investigation, it concluded.

FBI’s Response

In response to The Epoch Times’ request for comment, the FBI sent this statement:

“We thank the Department of Justice’s Office of Inspector General for its review. The FBI has said numerous times that the intelligence product did not meet our exacting standards and was quickly removed from FBI systems. We also have said there was no intent or actions taken to investigate Catholics or anyone based on religion; this was confirmed by the findings of the OIG.  The FBI’s mission is to protect our communities from potential threats while simultaneously upholding the constitutional rights of all Americans. We do not conduct investigations based solely on First Amendment protected activity, including religious practices.”

Ryan Morgan contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 17:00

While Congress Abandons Border, $3.5 Billion Slipped Into Israel Bill For 'Migrants And Refugees'

While Congress failed to pass a border security bill over the weekend amid a flurry of billions in international aid to Ukraine and Israel, they did set aside $3.5 billion for "Migration and Refugee Assistance" for the State Department to "address humanitarian needs of vulnerable populations and communities."

While written in an absurdly broad brushstroke that's going to be open to interpretation, X user 'Oilfield Rando' suggests that the funds will be used "to pay the NGOs coordinating the illegal invasion at our southern border, and providing all the freebies once they're in."

Oh, look at this excerpt from the Israel aid bill.

$3.5 billion for Department of State migration and refugee assistance.

This is what the State Department uses to pay the NGOs coordinating the illegal invasion at our southern border, and providing all the freebies once… pic.twitter.com/t8U1P0Mdok

— Oilfield Rando (@Oilfield_Rando) April 21, 2024

According to the legislation, the funds can be used if Congress designates it as an "emergency requirement pursuant to section 251(b)(2)(A)(i) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985."

And according to that, if Congress designates the funds as necessary for "Overseas Contingency Operations/Global War on Terrorism," and the President "subsequently so designates," the funds are activated for use. 

Of course, nowhere in the bill does it say which migrants, from where, or how the funds can be used to 'assist' them. Given that it's part of the Israel package, one might assume it's referring to refugees from Gaza - however that isn't articulated in the text, so we can only assume the funds can apply to whatever the State Departments wants, assuming Congress and the President activate them.

So, while there's a nebulous set of words governing the $3.5 billion, and which has the appearance of 'checks and balances,' Congress has provided a virtual slush fund for yet another category of people who aren't Americans, and has failed to pass legislation that would protect the country from the economic & national security risks posed by unchecked illegal migration.

Of course!

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 16:40

The Bad Faith Olympics

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“This is the weirdest era in human history. By far. Nothing else even comes close. Billionaires trying to kill everyone. Civil society unable to form a coherent thought. Institutions lie in smoldering ruins. Poisons handed out like candy. We are Neanderthals with iPhones.”

- Dr. Toby Rogers

Did it warm your heart to see all those blue and yellow Ukrainian flags waved by our elected officials in Congress Saturday night with the passage of the $60-plus-billion aid bill to the Palookaville of Europe?

You realize, don’t you, that the tiny fraction of that hypothetical “money” - from our country’s empty treasury - that ever reaches Ukraine will rebound on the instant into Mr. Zelensky’s Cayman Islands bank account.

The rest of the dough enters the recursive shell-game between US weapons-makers and the very hometown folks in Congress waving those blue and yellow flags, who will receive great greasy gobs of fresh “campaign donations” from the grateful bomb and missile producers.

No wonder they’re cheering.

What the $60-plus-billion won’t do is provide any fresh arms and equipment to Ukraine’s sad-sack army soon enough to prevent Russia from bringing this cruel, stupid, and unnecessary war, which we started, to a close. Yes, we started it, not Russia, in 2014 with our Intel blob overthrowing elected President Viktor Yanukovych in the so-called “Maidan Revolution of Dignity” (what Wikipedia calls it). And for what reason? To jam Ukraine into NATO as a prelude to “weakening” Russia sufficient to bust it up and gain control over Russian oil, ores, and grain.

Yes, that was actually the neocon’s game, equal parts megalomania and hubris, a fiasco as strategically ill-fated as Hitler’s push to gain control of Russia’s oil fields via Stalingrad in 1942-3. With failure and humiliation looming in Ukraine, the blob’s objective for now, in theory, is the vain hope of prolonging the hostilities just long enough to get its hologram president, “Joe Biden” re-elected, so that said blob can continue its amoebic digestion of what’s left uneaten by it in our sore-beset republic. You’ve got to wonder, of course, what this blob thinks will remain to rule over when it’s done gobbling up everything and jailing everyone from sea to shining sea who objects.

You tell me what conceivable way Ukraine can prevail in this proxy war now without just tripping off the civilization-ending nuke exchange? America does not have enough tactical missiles and artillery shells at hand to send over there. What we did have is gone. NATO never had much to begin with. Ukraine has run out of available cannon-fodder to conscript from its dwindling population. Despite Mr. Macron’s recent bluster, NATO can’t raise a credible army, or even agree on which country would send what. Nobody is riding to the rescue. Instead, Russia is fortifying its home-grown armaments industry and its military while systematically turning off the electricity all over Ukraine by blowing up the power stations. Very soon, Ukraine will be reduced to medieval living conditions — no lights, no phones, no Internet, no shopping, no ability to conduct modern warfare. End. . . of. . . story.

This is apt to play out much faster than America’s blob-controlled news media will be able to lie about. I’d guess it can be functionally over before mid-summer. The result will be yet another humiliation on the “Joe Biden” scorecard. When it’s over, you can be sure the Russians will abstain from an end-zone dance so as not to provoke America’s genius-losers into some final petty grand act of requital. Russia will just soberly declare what is self-evident: that for centuries Ukraine has been in its sphere-of-influence, as Mexico is in ours, and that they have reestablished the natural order of things in that corner of the world.

After that, America and the rest of Western Civ can get on with the collapse of their financial system and very likely a period of profound political and economic chaos in which governments fall, nations change boundaries and shapes, and their populations suffer dramatically from an imploded standard of living. That process may actually play out somewhat slower than the end of the Ukraine war over the coming years. It will look like a combined game of musical chairs and hot potato, with the opportunities to get a seat steadily fading, and the losers left holding things they can’t handle.

In the meantime, our country — remember it, the USA, when it had its once-enviable mojo working? — is busy being insane and finding sixty ways to Sunday to commit suicide.

How do you suppose the Democratic Party will actually pretend to put up “Joe Biden” for re-election when the Ukraine failure is completed? Answer: they can’t.

This dumbshow of the old gaffer hiding at his beach house and avoiding direct engagement with reality is also drawing to a close. Instead of calling “a lid” on “JB’s” activities, some humid morning in the swamp his handlers will call in “a medical alert” instead, and that will be the last we see of that dreadful apparition.

It’s also looking more and more as though the Republican Party faces its own civil war, especially after Speaker Mike Johnson’s perplexing flipperooski on the Ukraine aid vote. You recall, just weeks ago he said no dice to such a deal without a stop to the invasion coming across our Mexican border. Then, the intel blob boys lured him into a SCIF (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility) where they showed him . . . something. . . ! Everyone’s dying to know what. A secret signed agreement making Ukraine our 51st State? Photographs of Mike engaged in unwholesome recreations with Gawd knows who or what? Or did they just have a little talk with him about how stuff is supposed to work? Whatever it was has made Mike Johnson untenable in his position. And he has explained nothing. He’s got to go.

At the other end of all that stands — or, rather, sits at a defense table — Donald Trump, the seemingly inevitable leader of a party seeking to cough him up like a hairball stuck in its craw. And yet, every week that passes, the various lawfare traps set up to snare him to look more amateurish and gauche — while the Golden Golem of Greatness somehow manages to power through all that adversity. A big faction of the party he leads is in on that nefarious game.

The wild card is the increasingly inflamed mood of the American people, in whose name the game is supposedly being played.

With absolutely everyone lying to them about everything, it’s turned into some kind of bad faith olympics.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 16:20

Gold Hammered As Short-Squeeze Saves Stocks Ahead Of Micro/Macro Storm This Week

The "calm before the storm" of earnings and big macro this week (and no WW3 this weekend) was all the algos needed to ramp stocks during the US cash session after being reminded that the buyback-blackout period is almost over...

And S&P HOD as algos start frontrunning the buybacks https://t.co/DfjpdZO1pS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 22, 2024

Stocks had fallen from up around 0.6% at the cash open to unchanged by the European close... and then the algos all remembered, buybacks are coming back soon to save the world and stocks went vertical... together... with everything up 1.5% at the highs before the 1430ET margin-calls and the squeeze ammo ran out, leaving stocks fading into the close (but still a solid green day after some recent pain).

...as a basket of the 'most shorted' stocks exploded higher (biggest short squeeze in a month). We not note that the squeeze stalled at an interesting level...

Source: Bloomberg

0-DTE traders were active today. Buying straddles/strangles early on, then call-buyers pounced in size, inevitably prompting early put-buyers to unwind (back to net zero delta - which seemed to end the ramp), before the straddles were unwound into the close...

Source: SpotGamma

TSLA was twatted again - seventh straight down-day (equal longest-losing-streak ever). The last two times it dropped seven straight days, it ripped back (Sep 2018, +50% in next two months; Dec 2022, +100% in next two months)...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly Goldman's trading desk noted overall activity levels are flat vs. the trailing 2wk avg, with mkt volumes down -8% vs. the 10dma

• For the 2nd straight session we lean better to buy at +6.5% overall – this is our highest buy skew since 3/1/24

• HFs are a massive driver of that demand tilting +22% better to buy, this ranks 98th %-ile & backs up last week’s PB report highlighting single stocks saw the largest notional long buying in over a year.  HF demand tils towards Fins, Cons Disc, Indust, Info Tech & HCare with modest supply in Materials, Comm Svcs, Staples & REITs.

• LOs are -5% better for sale which continues their theme from Friday.  Supply is most concentrated in Info Tech, Fins & Industrials with modest demand for Staples, REITs & Cons Disc. 

Equity vol markets are primed for the next week's action though...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were relatively quiet with an overnight sell-off but bid during the day session with the short-end outperforming (2Y -2bps, 30Y unch)...

Source: Bloomberg

Once again, 5.00% was resistance for the 2Y yield...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar roller-coastered a little today ended unch...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended the weekend's rebound (post-halving), testing back up towards $67,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold, on the other hand, was clubbed like a baby seal - after rising for 13 of the last 17 days, today saw its biggest daily loss since June 2022. But that drop only pulled it back to one-week lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices chopped around all day with WTI hovering at $82 and ended unchanged...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, there's this... market liquidity in stocks...

...and bonds...

...is dismal - and in a week full of major macro catalysts (e.g. PCE) and massive micro events (MAG7 earnings), that will likely mean some serious gaps (and with gamma so negative, things could get violent, one way or another).

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 16:00

Here Comes The Cavalry?

By Benjamin Picton of Rabobank

Here Comes The Cavalry?

The risk of imminent hot war between Israel and Iran seems to have dissipated for the time being. Israel on Friday delivered its promised response to the Iranian strike of the weekend before by hitting targets in Syria and the Iranian city of Isfahan. Reporting of the strikes has stressed that they were ‘modest’, while Israeli Minister of the Interior Ben Gvir tweeted “weak!” in Hebrew at the time of the attacks. The Israeli response appears to have been carefully calibrated to de-escalate, while also sending a message to Iran. Iran has played-down the Israeli attack, which suggests that the promised 10x escalation is not going to be immediately forthcoming.

According to the New York Times, the strike on an Iranian airbase outside Isfahan was designed to demonstrate to the Iranian regime that Israel had the capability to hit key Iranian infrastructure if it wanted to. The attack, reportedly using a sophisticated two-stage air to surface missile, damaged Russian-made air defence systems and, critically, landed adjacent to Iranian nuclear assets. The very clear message to Iran being that “we can hurt you if we want to.”

Following the attacks, initial strong rallies in gold and crude oil prices have receded, and both are trading well back from the highs. Gold is back below $2,400/oz, while Brent crude is well under the $90/bbl psychological level, and remains under selling pressure early this morning. Markets might have relaxed slightly, but we should be under no illusion that the conflict is over. Gideon Rachman opines in the FT over the weekend that Russia, Iran, North Korea and China constitute an “axis of adversaries” that are working together in opposition to the West. Indeed, that Iranian nuclear enrichment site outside of Isfahan utilizes Chinese-supplied reactor technology. Regular readers of this Daily will be unsurprised by claims of cooperation among autocratic states as our Global Strategist, Michael Every, has been pointing this out for several years now.

Equity markets on Friday seemed to be pricing the view that “it ain’t over yet”, although possibly for the wrong reasons. The NASDAQ fell by 2%, the S&P500 was down by 0.88% and market darling NVDA fell by 10% following unconfirmed rumours circulating on X that Stanley Druckenmiller has sold down his position.

There’s some logic to be found duration-sensitive equities being hurt most. The Treasuries curve has parallel-shifted 40bps higher since the end of March, despite the sighs of relief heard in dealing rooms on Friday once it became clear that war wasn’t about to break out. The 2-year Treasury is currently dealing on a yield of 5%; Janet Yellen and Co will be hoping that the 10-year doesn’t join it at that level.

Traders aren’t the only ones picking up on the meme of conflict being the new normal. The US House of Representatives came to agreement over the weekend on a $61bn aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The bill will be debated in the Senate this week before being sent to Joe Biden’s desk for signing (assuming it clears the Senate). The prospect of fresh lethal aid will be welcomed by Ukrainian troops, who have been on the backfoot as shortages of arms, ammunition and manpower prevent them from challenging Russian air superiority, or counterattacking Russian positions.

Ukraine’s leadership will be hoping that the passage of the US aid bill will buy some time for the European military industrial complex to spool-up arms supplies. European aid had recently overtaken aid from the United States, but is more heavily skewed toward financial assistance (rather than armaments). The spectre of a second Trump presidency (and a consequent redirection of US arms and funding) looms large over the conflict in Ukraine. As described by this Daily previously, Emmanuel Macron sees the Ukraine war as vital to the security interests of the European Union, even to the extent that he has not explicitly ruled out deploying French troops in the defence of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Japan Times reports that Xi Jinping has ordered the largest reorganisation of China’s military since 2015. Special attention is paid to a reorganisation of China’s cyber and space capabilities into a new branch, in echoes of Donald Trump’s establishment of the US Space Force. With US GDP figures for March due to be released later this week, it will be interesting to see whether the economic and military heavyweight of the Western sphere can replicate the upside growth surprise that its main challenger posted just last week.

With yields having settled at a higher level despite the events of the last two weeks suggesting that ‘risk off’ might be the trade, could another US growth beat be the catalyst for 10y Treasury yields to make a stretch toward that 5% level?

If that proves to be the case, light a candle for the central bankers of the high beta FX world, and for USDJPY.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 15:45

NATO Member Rolls Out Red Carpet For Hamas Chief

As head of NATO's second largest military, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has continued to stir controversy among allies by his Hamas-sympathetic stance. As early as last October, just on the heels of the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack, he was bluntly expressing that "Hamas is not a terror organization" but is a "liberation group" rightfully fighting to protect Palestinian lands.

But this weekend he went far beyond mere verbal praise as Turkey's president played official host to Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul.

Turkish Presidency via Anadolu

The Saturday meeting saw Erdogan vow to the Hamas chief that Turkey is committed to raising awareness of the plight of the Palestinians on a global stage. He said Turkey will lead the way toward seeing an independent State of Palestine achieved.

"The strongest response to Israel and the path to victory lie in unity and integrity," Erdoğan said, referencing Palestinian political unity at this sensitive moment.

Hamas is the main political rival to Fatah - which is the faction that forms the core of the Palestinian Authority (PA) overseeing the West Bank. While the secular-leaning PA is favored as the Palestinians' representative in the West (and at the UN), Hamas is a designated terror organization in the United States and European Union. So in essence Erdogan just held a state visit for a US-designated terrorist.

Last Wednesday upon officially announcing the Hamas leader's visit, Erdogan had said, "Even if only I, Tayyip Erdogan, remain, I will continue as long as God gives me my life, to defend the Palestinian struggle and to be the voice of the oppressed Palestinian people."

From Tel Aviv's perspective, Erdogan's ratcheting rhetoric in denouncing Israeli 'genocidal' actions will likely been seen as unforgiveable, even after this current crisis is over. Turkey and Israel have long clashed over the Palestinian issue, and these tensions have exploded back into full force. Ties between the two countries are at a historical low point, and have even led to Turkey imposing an export ban on key products for Israel.

Erdogan has all along continued seeking to get Israel branded as a "war criminal" state on the world stage, and is pursuing a case submitted before the the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC).

On Saturday Hamas' Haniyeh said Israel is solely to blame for the near collapse of Qatar-mediated truce talks...

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh blamed Israel for stalling a ceasefire. Haniyeh met Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul following Israel's reported attack on Iran https://t.co/UilJVDOIoB pic.twitter.com/C5GGrGZZzX

— Reuters (@Reuters) April 21, 2024

In October, as the Gaza war kicked off, Erdogan confirmed he had canceled a planned trip to Israel where he was expected to meet with his Israeli counterpart. This was part of a normalization and restoration of ties effort, which is clearly now indefinitely on ice. It could be years or even decades before ties are healed between the two countries.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 15:25

Trump Lawyer Rages At "Waste Of Taxpayers' Dollars" As Judge Approves Trump's $175 Million Bond In New York Civil Case

Authored by Sam Dorman, Catherine Yang, and Juliette Fairley via The Epoch Times,

Former President Donald Trump and New York Attorney General Letitia James reached an agreement on April 22 regarding his $175 million bond in his New York civil case, imposing additional restrictions while resolving concerns about the funds’ security.

The attorney general argued that Knight Specialty Insurance Company (KSIC) lacked a “certificate of qualification,” and that President Trump still had access to the Charles Schwab account pledged to the insurer as collateral.

Judge Arthur Engoron accepted the April 22 agreement, which gave KSIC exclusive control over the account. The state made the offer after Chris Kise, President Trump’s attorney, provided oral argument.

The attorney general established five bond conditions this morning that allow former President Trump to use a non-New York company as a traditional license surety to cover the $175 million he was ordered to pay.

KSIC is unauthorized by the New York Department of Financial Services, which bond experts see as a victory for Mr. Trump.

“[The company] is probably charging Trump less and they accepted a pledge rather than actually receiving $175 million in cash,” said Bruce Lederman, a commercial and real estate litigator who has dealt in bonds for more than 40 years.

All of Mr. Trump’s attorneys agreed to the settlement stipulations, which are expected to be memorialized by the end of the week.

The five bond conditions include retaining the collateral in a Schwab account and restricting KSIC from trading or withdrawing any of the funds for anything other than payment of the bond.

“The state was not looking to be vindictive,” Mr. Lederman told The Epoch Times.

“They are looking simply to be guaranteed that they are getting paid if they win the appeal and they were sufficiently satisfied that if these five conditions were met, they would get paid.”

Another settlement condition is that KSIC must provide the state with monthly statements and the pledge agreement cannot be amended without court approval.

The fifth condition of the settlement is requires a point of contact for service outside of KSIC. The parties agreed the surety’s lawyer would be the point of service. Mr. Lederman noted that KSIC “is not a New York company. So if they don’t pay, they need someone other than KCIS to sue.”

He added that “the attorney for the surety will accept the lawsuit if Trump loses on appeal and doesn’t pay.”

James’ Criticism

The bond issued by KSIC is meant to secure President Trump’s compliance with a $454.2 million judgment won by Ms. James.

Ms. James had challenged the sufficiency of President Trump’s bond and cast doubt on the stability of the insurance company.

Amit Shah, president of the insurance company, demanded the court compel the attorney general to show cause, or prove the allegation that the insurance company is not sufficient.

Mr. Shah submitted a sworn affidavit explaining that KSIC now has control over a bank account of President Trump’s that will maintain $175 million cash for the duration of the appeal. The insurance company entered into a collateral agreement with the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust. Mr. Shah submitted documents establishing that his company is in “good standing” and was approved for excess line eligibility in New York in June 2021.

KSIC is under The Hankey Group of financial companies, which includes the affiliate Westlake Financial Services LLC. The attorney general argued that Westlake was found to have “violated numerous federal laws by pressuring borrowers through the use of illegal debt collection tactics, including using phony caller ID information, falsely threatening to refer borrowers for investigation or criminal prosecution” in 2015 by the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The company was fined and provided $44 million in restitution to consumers.

President Trump defended the bond outside the courtroom at his criminal trial.

“We put up cash and the number is 175,” President Trump said.

“She shouldn’t be complaining about the bonding company. The bonding company would be good for it because I put up the money. I have plenty of money to put up.”

After the hearing, President Trump's lawyer in the case, Alina Habba, fumed at the judge's incompetence, "he doesn't even understand basic principles of finance," and at AG James' "this is where your taxpayer dollars are going America...witch hunt after witch hunt after witch hunt..."

Habba continued to excoriate the whole farce:

"...in one hour, that judge and the attorney general realized they had no idea what they were talking about... and we came to an agreement that everything would be the same..."

Alina Habba in the last hour.

This is hilarious.

Judge Engoron doesn't even understand Money Market funds.

Agreement reached on Trump $175 million bond.pic.twitter.com/CJwUR04VNl

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) April 22, 2024

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 15:05

"Gross Abuse Of Power" - Two SEC Lawyers Resign After Judge's Rebuke In Anti-Crypto Case

Score one for 'the law'...

In mid-March, a federal judge in Utah took the extremely unusual step of sanctioning the SEC, saying that the regulator abused its authority in a case against crypto platform Digital Licensing Inc., known as DEBT Box.

The SEC’s conduct “constitutes a gross abuse of the power entrusted to it by Congress and substantially undermined the integrity of these proceedings and the judicial process,” Robert Shelby, a federal district court judge in Salt Lake City, said in an 80-page legal filing on Monday.

He also ordered the agency to pay DEBT Box’s attorney’s fees and other costs related to the restraining order that the regulator had sought against the crypto platform.

The SEC sued DEBT Box in July 2023, accusing the crypto platform of defrauding investors of at least $49 million. The same month, Shelby froze the company’s assets and put the company into receivership at the SEC’s request.

However, the freeze was later reversed after the court found that the SEC may have made “materially false and misleading representations” in the process.

A month later, and Bloomberg reports, according to people familiar with the matter, that two SEC lawyers - Michael Welsh and Joseph Watkins - stepped down this month after an SEC official told them that they would be terminated if they stayed.

The pair were lead attorneys on a case against DEBT Box.

The judge had faulted arguments from Welsh, the SEC’s lead trial attorney on the matter, and evidence provided by Watkins and his team.

Watkins was the agency’s lead investigative attorney on the case.

In one instance, Welsh told the judge that Draper, Utah-based DEBT Box was closing bank accounts and transferring assets overseas.

The court found that this wasn’t happening.

An SEC investigator later said that a miscommunication led to the error, and Welsh apologized to the court.

SEC enforcement chief Gurbir Grewal apologized to the court for his department’s conduct.

Gurbir Grewal

He said that he had appointed new attorneys to the case and mandated training for the agency’s enforcement staff.

Last week, attorneys for DEBT Box and other parties filed motions requesting that the SEC pay more than $1.5 million in fees and other costs incurred in the case.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 14:45

Governments Could Stop Inflation If They Wanted... They Will Not

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Inflation is no coincidence. It is a policy. Governments, along with their so-called experts, attempt to persuade you that inflation stems from anything other than the consistent, albeit slower, rise in aggregate prices year after year. Issuing more currency than the private sector demands, thus eroding its purchasing power and creating a constant annual transfer of wealth from real wages and deposit savings to the government.

Oil prices are not a cause of inflation but a consequence. Prices increase as more units of the currency used to denominate the commodity shift to relatively scarce assets. Therefore, oil prices do not cause inflation; they are one of the signals of currency debasement. Furthermore, if oil prices caused inflation, we would go from inflation to deflation quickly, not from elevated inflation to slower price increases.

The same goes for all the causes that governments and their agents try to use as an excuse for inflation. Most are just manifestations, not causes of inflation. Even if the global economy were dominated by three evil and stupid oligopolistic businesses, they would not be able to increase aggregate prices and maintain an annual increase if the quantity of currency in the system were to remain equal. Why? Two things would happen. First, those three monopolistic evil corporations would see their working capital soar because citizens would not have enough units of currency to pay for all they produce. Two, the rest of the prices would decline as there would be a significantly lower number of units of currency to purchase other goods and services.

Even a group of quasi-monopolistic corporations cannot make all prices rise in unison and consolidate the annual level, only to continue rising. However, the monopolistic issuer of the currency, the government, can make all prices rise while at the same time diminishing the purchasing power of the units of state debt that they issue.

It is surprising to see how some so-called experts say that a few large corporations make all prices rise but deny that the state that monopolizes the creation of money is the cause of inflation.

The only real cause of inflation is government spending. While banks can generate money -credit- through lending, they rely on projects and investments to support these loans. Banks cannot create money to bail themselves out. No financial entity would go bankrupt then. In fact, banks’ largest asset imbalance comes from lending at rates below the cost of risk and having government loans and bonds as “no-risk” investments, two things that are imposed by regulation, law, and central bank planning. Meanwhile, the state does issue more currency to disguise its fiscal imbalances and bail itself out, using regulation, legislation, and coercion to impose the use of its own form of money.

Monopolies cannot create inflation unless they are able to force consumers to use their products without any decline in demand. We also must understand that destructive and inefficient monopolies can only exist if the state imposes them. In any other situation, those monopolies disappear due to competition, technology, and cheaper imports from other nations. So, which is the only monopoly that can force consumers to use their product regardless of the real demand for it? Government fiat money.

The government is the largest economic agent and therefore the most important driver of aggregate demand, as well as the issuer of currency. The government can end inflation anytime by eliminating the unnecessary spending that causes the deficit, which is the same as money printing. Taxing the private sector to cut inflation is like starving the children to make the fat parent lose weight.

If Senator Warren and President Biden were right and corporations were to blame for inflation, competition, cheaper imports, and a decline in demand, they would have taken care of their unjustified prices. Only the government can cause and perpetuate inflation, using the central bank as its financial arm and regulation as the imposition of the state’s IOU (currency) as the “lowest-risk asset” in banks’ assets. The government creates the currency and imposes it, and when its purchasing power declines, it blames the economic agents that are forced to use its form of money.

MMT defenders and neo-Keynesians say that the government can issue all the currency that they need and that their limit is not fiscal (deficit and debt) but inflation. It makes no sense because inflation is the manifestation of an unsustainable fiscal problem, reflected in the vanishing confidence in the currency issuer. It is, literally, like a giant corporation issuing debt endlessly and thinking nothing matters. It is a subterfuge to implement the constant increase in size of government in the economy, knowing that once it controls a large part, it is virtually impossible to stop the state.

Stephanie Kelton and others say the government should spend all it wants and, if inflation rises, tax the excessive money away. This is funny. So, the government increases size on the way in, spending and diluting the purchasing power of the private sector’s earnings and savings, and then taxes the private sector, thus increasing the size of government on the way out. Furthermore, there is no government that would recognize that inflation comes from spending too much, so the destruction of the private sector continues and the diminishing confidence in the currency extends, as history has proven numerous times.

Governments cannot tax away the inflation they have created by bloating spending. They can only weaken the private productive sector further and worsen the economic situation and the inflation outlook.

There is no such thing as perennial monetary sovereignty. Like any form of debt, currency demand disappears with the government’s solvency and the economic weakness of the private sector consumed by taxes. Once the government destroys confidence in the currency as a reserve of value, the private sector will find some other way to make transactions outside of the imposition of a state-issued currency.

When governments present themselves as the solution to inflation with large spending programs and subsidies, they are printing money, like putting out a fire with gasoline.

Biden says the government has a plan to cut inflation, but all they have done is perpetuate it, making citizens poorer and the productive sector weaker.

If Biden wants to cut inflation, all he must do is eliminate the deficit by cutting expenditures. The reason why governments should never oversee monetary policy and be allowed to monetize all deficits is because no administration will cut its size to defend citizens’ wages because nationalization by inflation and taxes is the goal of interventionism: to create a dependent and hostage economy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 14:25

Trump Urges Supporters To "Peacefully Protest" As Day 1 'Opening Arguments' In Hush-Money Case Concludes Early

Day one of former President Donald Trump’s so-called “hush-money” trial concluded early on Monday after Judge Juan Merchan said that an alternate juror can visit a dentist appointment (despite previously telling Trump he would have attend every day without fail - missing his son's graduation - or face jail).

Judge Merchan had previously planned to adjourn the trial at 2 p.m. ET due to the Passover holiday. But he said Monday that it would adjourn at 12:30 p.m.

He previously said he would end at 2 p.m. on Tuesday for the holiday.

Jack Phillips reports, via The Epoch Times, that the early adjournment came after prosecutors and defense lawyers make their respective cases for why the former president should be convicted or acquitted. In the case, President Trump is accused of falsifying business payments during the 2016 campaign by allegedly paying a former lawyer, Michael Cohen, to bury negative stories.

At issue were claims from an adult film performer, Stormy Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, that she was engaged in a relationship with the former president. President Trump has denied her claims and has pled not guilty.

‘Use Your Common Sense’

An attorney for the former president spoke to the jury, asking them to “use your common sense” when they assess the case.

“We’re New Yorkers. It’s why we’re here,” Todd Blanche said.

“There will be a very swift not guilty verdict” if they decide based on the evidence involved, he said.

“You told all of us, you told the court, you told me, you will put aside whatever views you have of President Trump,” Mr. Blanche told the jury as he wrapped up his arguments.

“The 34 counts, ladies and gentlemen, are really just pieces of paper,” Mr. Blanche said of the indictment. “None of this was a crime.”

Mr. Blanche was critical of Ms. Clifford, saying that she has earned income and fame from her allegations about an alleged affair that occurred in 2006.

“She also wrote a book. She was paid for a documentary,” Mr. Blanche says of Ms. Clifford, adding that courts have sided with President Trump’s legal disputes with Ms. Clifford.

As for Mr. Cohen, Mr. Blanche accused him of profiting off his criticism of President Trump.

“His entire financial livelihood depends on President Trump’s destruction,” he said of Mr. Cohen.

“You cannot make a serious decision about President Trump relying on the words of Michael Cohen.”

“He has a goal, an obsession with getting President Trump,” Mr. Blanche said of Mr. Cohen, who is expected to be a witness. “I submit to you that he cannot be trusted.”

But prosecutors claimed on April 22 that the case wasn’t just about the payments to Mr. Cohen. They argued that it constituted election fraud.

‘Orchestrated a Criminal Scheme’

Prosecutor Matthew Colangelo, in a bid to reframe the narrative, said that President Trump, Mr. Cohen, and former National Enquirer boss David Pecker “formed a conspiracy ... to influence the presidential election.”

“The defendant, Donald Trump, orchestrated a criminal scheme to corrupt the 2016 presidential election,” he alleged.

“Then he covered up that criminal conspiracy by lying in his New York business records over and over and over again.”

Calling it “election fraud,” he provided several instances when the three allegedly conspired to block negative press about President Trump from becoming public before the 2016 contest.

The plan was  allegedly hatched at Trump Tower shortly after the then-presidential candidate had announced his candidacy in what Mr. Colangelo is referring to as the “Trump Tower conspiracy.”

During that meeting, prosecutors say, Mr. Pecker agreed to “help the defendant’s campaign by working as the eyes and the ears of the campaign.”

Mr. Colangelo, senior counsel to the district attorney, told jurors that although the payments to Mr. Cohen, then Trump’s personal lawyer, were labeled as legal fees pursuant to a retainer agreement, there was no retainer and there were no legal services.

“The defendant was paying him back for an illegal payment to Stormy Daniels on the eve of the election. The defendant falsified those business records because he wanted to conceal his and others’ criminal conduct,” he said.

'Peacefully Protest'

In a Truth Social post before he left for the courthouse on Monday morning, President Trump wrote that he wonders why pro-Palestinian demonstrators are allowed to “roam the Cities, scream, shout, sit, block traffic, enter buildings, not get permits, and basically do whatever they want” while pro-Trump backers are “rudely and systematically shut down and ushered off to far away ‘holding areas,’ essentially denying them their Constitutional Rights.”

“America Loving Protesters should be allowed to protest at the front steps of Courthouses, all over the Country,” the former president wrote on social media, making reference to demonstrators who have appeared in front of the Manhattan courthouse where his trial is being held.

Those protests are “allowed for those who are destroying our Country on the Radical Left, a two tiered system of justice,” he added. “Free Speech and Assembly has been ‘CHILLED’ for USA SUPPORTERS.”

Later, he urged his supporters to “GO OUT AND PEACEFULLY PROTEST. RALLY BEHIND MAGA. SAVE OUR COUNTRY!”

When entering the courthouse on Monday, President Trump again criticized the case during a brief interview with reporters.

“I’m here instead of being able to be in Pennsylvania and Georgia and lots of other places campaigning and it’s very unfair,” he said.

A small group of anti-Trump protesters was seen outside the courthouse ahead of opening statements, chanting, “No one is above the law,” while members of the media and public lined up to get inside, according to reporters on the scene. It’s unclear if any pro-Trump demonstrators heeded the former president’s call on social media.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 13:20

Why A Powerful Silver Bull Market May Be Ahead

By Jesse Colombo of BullionStar

Since early-March, precious metals have launched one of their sharpest rallies in decades. Gold surged by 16% and silver by 26%, which are significant moves for safe-haven assets — especially considering that it played out over such a short time period. During this rally, gold has received the lion’s share of the attention because it has been hitting all-time highs, while silver has yet to exceed its 2021 high of $30.13 — let alone its all-time high of $49.81 that was reached all the way back in 2011. Though silver has been languishing for the past several years, there are numerous reasons why it may be on the verge of one of its most powerful bull markets in history.

Silver Demand is Growing Rapidly

Though silver is most known for its use in jewelry, silverware, coinage, and bullion products, the largest source of silver demand is actually industrial in nature. Thanks to its unique physical, chemical, and electrical properties, silver is used in electronics, solar panels, automobiles, photography, medicine, the chemical industry, and much more.

Sources of silver demand. Source: GFMS Definitive, Metals Focus, The Silver Institute, UBS

The growing number of uses for silver combined with ongoing global economic growth is causing a substantial increase in industrial demand for silver. According to the latest report from the Silver Institute, industrial demand for silver grew by a solid 11% to a record of 654.4 million ounces in 2023, which came on the heels of a record year in 2022. Silver used for photovoltaic (PV) applications skyrocketed by 64%, which caused electrical & electronics demand to increase by 20% in turn. As the push for so-called “green" energy continues, photovoltaic silver demand should keep growing at a rapid rate. The Silver Institute predicts a 9% increase in industrial demand for silver in 2024.

The steady increase of industrial demand over the past decade is driving overall silver demand higher:

There is a Structural Silver Deficit

Since 2021, there has been a deficit of silver due to demand exceeding supply — a condition that has helped to boost prices and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Strong demand combined with tepid supply increases led to a deficit of 184.3 million ounces in 2023 and are expected to lead to an even worse deficit of 215.3 million troy ounces in 2024.

The chart below shows how the silver deficit has grown significantly over the past few years:

While silver demand has grown at a healthy clip over the past four years, the overall supply of silver has been flat for more than a decade:

Global mine production of silver has actually been declining for the past decade:

(Read our recent report about the structural silver deficit and why it is likely to persist and even intensify.)

Above-Ground Supplies Are Dwindling

The silver deficit of the past few years is causing the above-ground supply of silver to dwindle at a rapid rate:

The total London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) silver inventory decreased by 30% from its peak in 2021:

The total COMEX silver inventory (a measure of U.S. silver inventories) fell by 27% since 2021:

The total silver inventory on China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange fell by an incredible 73%:

The total silver inventory on China’s other main silver trading venue, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), also fell precipitously:

The Technical Picture

For the past year, silver had been chopping up and down aimlessly until its sudden surge that came practically out of nowhere:

A look at the five-year chart shows that there is a major resistance zone overhead from $28 to $30, which is what silver struggled to surpass during the last bull run in 2020 and 2021. If silver can close above that zone in a convincing manner with heavy volume, that would signal that another bull run is likely imminent.

The long-term silver chart going back to the year 2000 shows something very interesting: a triangle pattern has been forming for over a decade as uptrend lines and downtrend lines converge together. Patterns like this often result in very powerful moves when the asset finally breaks out from it. Amazingly, silver has recently broken out from its long-term triangle, which means that a powerful bull market is likely ahead that could take silver to its prior 2011 highs of approximately $50 and even higher after that!

Silver has been rising in sympathy with gold after it broke above its critical $2,000 to $2,100 resistance zone that acted as a price ceiling from 2020 until recently. Gold’s breakout signifies that a new bull market has begun, which should help bring silver along for the ride. (There are many parallels between gold’s resistance zone and silver’s current $28 to $30 resistance zone, and silver should really shine once it finally breaks through.)

Mainstream Investors & Journalists Missed Silver’s Rally

What is also worth noting is how gold and silver’s surprising recent rally has received very little mainstream attention by a press that is much more enamored with hot AI stocks as well as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies that have recently benefited from the U.S. government’s approval of a number of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has resulted in tremendous inflows from institutional investors and retail investors alike.

As the chart below shows, investors have pulled a significant amount of funds from silver ETFs in order to re-invest in Bitcoin ETFs, which is ironic considering its timing shortly before silver’s liftoff (and is confirmation of contrarian investing principles). The continuation of silver’s bull market will likely lead to funds flowing back into silver ETFs, providing additional fuel for the rally.

Silver is Inexpensive by Historical Standards

Precious metals analysts keep an eye on the gold-to-silver price ratio to get a sense of whether silver is undervalued or overvalued relative to gold. Silver is approximately 17.5 times more common than gold in earth’s crust, which is one of the reasons why silver has been cheaper than gold throughout history. During the Roman empire, the gold-to-silver price ratio was set at 12 to 1 by government decree. In much of Europe throughout the Middle Ages and the Renaissance, the gold-to-silver  price ratio was set at similar levels. In 1792, the newly formed U.S. government set the ratio at 15:1.

When the gold-to-silver ratio differs greatly from its long-term historical average, there are reasons to believe that something is amiss and that the ratio will eventually revert back to its historical average. In recent decades, the gold-to-silver price ratio has ranged from approximately 50 to 100, which is much higher than its historical average.

The current gold-to-silver ratio is a lofty 84.3, which means that silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold based on historical standards. If the ratio were to revert to its average since 1915 of 52.8 (without any price increase in gold), that would result in silver being priced at a respectable $45 an ounce. If the ratio were to revert to 15:1, as it was in the U.S. in 1792, that would result in silver trading at $158.87 an ounce — an incredible 464% increase from the current price! For this reason, many investors expect silver to perform even better than gold during the coming precious metals bull market and revaluation that they expect to occur when our unsustainable global paper money system collapses (as I discussed in a recent piece). Any price increases in gold would amplify price increases in silver, if the gold-to-silver ratio reverts.

Adjusting silver’s price for inflation also shows that the precious metal is quite cheap by historical standards. At the peak of the Hunt brothers-induced silver spike in 1980, silver hit an inflation-adjusted price of $143.54. At the peak of the quantitative easing-driven bull market in 2011, silver hit an inflation-adjusted price of $67.50. At the time of writing, silver is trading at a mere $28.30, which means that it has much further to run if it is going to catch up with prior inflation-adjusted prices.

Another way to determine whether silver is undervalued or overvalued is to compare it to various money supply measures. The chart below shows the ratio of silver’s price to the United States M2 money supply, which is helpful for seeing if silver is keeping up with money supply growth, outpacing it, or lagging it. The M2 money supply is a measure of all notes and coins that are in circulation, checking accounts, travelers’ checks, savings deposits, time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds.

If silver’s price greatly outpaces money supply growth, there is a heightened chance of a strong correction. If silver’s price lags money supply growth, however, there is a good chance that silver will soon experience of period of strength. Since the mid-2010s, silver has slightly lagged M2 money supply growth, which could set it up for a period of strength due to the other factors discussed in this piece.

Silver is Rising Despite the Strong Dollar & Interest Rates

What is particularly impressive about the recent rally in silver and gold is the fact that it occurred even while the U.S. dollar was strengthening against other major currencies. Precious metals and the U.S. dollar have a long-established inverse relationship, which means that strength in the dollar typically causes weakness in precious metals, while dollar weakness typically causes precious metals prices to rise.

The chart below compares silver (the top chart) to the U.S. Dollar Index (the bottom chart) and shows how action in the dollar often causes an opposite trend in silver. Silver’s surge in the face of the strengthening dollar is a sign of strength and staying power. (I need to clarify, however, that the U.S. dollar’s exchange rate is strengthening against other fiat currencies; this does not mean that the dollar is getting stronger in terms of purchasing power or against sound money like gold and silver. All fiat currencies are being debased as a function

On a similar note, silver and gold are also rallying even though global interest rates have been rising at the same time due to inflation proving to be stubborn, and even at risk of increasing again. Rising interest rates are typically bearish for precious metals because they don’t pay any yield, but silver and gold appear to be unfazed this time, which is an additional sign of strength and staying power. of time but they still fluctuate against each other in the global foreign exchange market.)

How Inflation is Contributing to Silver’s Recent Rise

Another important factor driving the recent precious metals rally is stubbornly high inflation that is not easing as quickly as economists and investors had expected and may actually be worsening instead. Gold and silver are inflation hedges and are very sensitive to changing inflation expectations. U.S. year-over-year inflation — as measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI) — increased at a 3.5% rate in March, which immediately caused traders to scale back their expectations for Federal Funds Rate cuts this year. March’s inflation rate represents an acceleration from February’s 3.2% increase.

The sharp increase in commodities prices over the past few months is further confirmation that inflation may be accelerating:

Crude oil has rallied over the past few weeks:

U.S. wholesale gasoline prices have increased by an alarming 30% in the past two months and are one of the most psychologically important and visible indicators of inflation in the minds of consumers:

China’s Economic Crisis is Helping Precious Metals

Though most non-Chinese are unaware, China is experiencing a serious economic crisis as well as a property and stock market crash after at least two decades of almost non-stop boom times. Unfortunately, that economic boom was actually an unsustainable bubble that was enabled by

and reckless speculation, and the chickens are now coming home to roost. China’s imploding property and stock market bubbles have resulted in at least hundreds of billions of dollars worth of losses — including

alone from the country’s property tycoons.

As Chinese investors lost faith in the property and stock market, they have shifted their attention to gold, which has earned a stellar reputation in China over thousands of years. When modern financial markets and investments sour, Chinese people seek refuge in gold bullion, which is tried-and-true. Chinese investors have clamored into the gold market with such intensity that they have pushed the price of locally-traded gold to a premium against the international price of gold.

In addition, Chinese investors recently piled into a domestic gold stock fund causing its premium to surge 30% until trading was halted to calm the frenzy and protect investors. Around the same time, the Shanghai Gold Exchange raised silver margin requirement from 10% to 12% after silver futures spiked. Though everyday Chinese investors tend to focus more on gold rather than silver, their heavy buying has helped to buoy the price of gold, which has boosted silver in turn. China’s massive economic bubble formed over decades and its collapse is only in the early stages — a fact that should propel precious metals prices higher for years to come.

Precious Metals Are Benefiting From Political Uncertainty

On top of their roles as inflation hedges, gold and silver are also hedges against economic and political uncertainty, and there is a great amount of political uncertainty this year as more than 60 countries — including the United States, Mexico, India and Indonesia — are set to hold national elections. In the United States, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are expected to go head-to-head again as they did in 2020.

Economic issues, including inflation, have soared to the top of the list of concerns for Americans who are growing increasingly frustrated with so-called “Bidenomics" as the cost of living continues to rise at an uncomfortable pace while middle class life becomes further out of reach for a large portion of the population. The Biden administration’s heavy spending and willingness to rack up the national debt have exacerbated the country’s inflation problem, which is why it is catching flak from Americans on both sides of the aisle. In theory, a Biden win should prove beneficial for precious metals prices.

Geopolitical Risks Are Helping Gold & Silver

In addition to the other factors mentioned so far, precious metals are also benefiting from mounting geopolitical risks related to the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine war. The Israel-Hamas war has now been going on for six months and is heating up, unfortunately. On April 13th 2024, Iran fired hundreds of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles at Israel, which is Iran’s first direct attack on Israel since the conflict started and the first ever attack on Israel directly from Iranian soil (in the past, Iranian proxies were used to attack Israel). Though 99% of Iran’s drones and missiles were intercepted by Israel’s sophisticated Iron Dome air defense system, the attack sent a powerful message and represents a new phase of the war that is playing out across the Middle East.

The April 13th attack was retaliation after Israel struck numerous Iran-backed targets in Syria. Israel now vows to retaliate against Iran for its April 13th attack, which would further perpetuate the tit for tat cycle. As geopolitical analyst Max Abrahms said, “Iran and Israel are now at war. A real, direct war." Economist and best-selling author James Rickards is now warning about the rising risk of a nuclear war and saying that gold’s rally “is just getting started" due to that risk.

2024 Iranian strikes in Israel. Mehr News Agency.

The Russia-Ukraine war has also taken a turn for the worse recently after Russia shot down 53 Ukrainian drones and the Kremlin warned that Russia and NATO are now in “direct confrontation.” Ukraine took credit for destroying at least six Russian fighter jets, damaging eight more, and killing or injuring 20 service personnel. The BBC has estimated that over 50,000 Russian military personnel have been killed so far in the war against Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that 31,000 Ukrainian military personnel have been killed — a figure that is likely understated.

The Potential For a #SilverSqueeze

In early-2021, investors and traders affiliated with the r/WallStreetBets (WSB) subreddit began promoting a theory, movement, and hashtag called #SilverSqueeze with the intention of piling into physical silver en masse in order to create a short squeeze that forces big banks and other institutions to buy back their short positions (i.e., bets against the price of silver) that are used to suppress the price of silver. If successfully pulled off, the theory went, the price of silver would skyrocket to all-time highs, which would simultaneously generate significant profits for #SilverSqueeze participants while punishing the institutions that were suppressing the price of silver.

In 2021, BullionStar agreed with and supported the #SilverSqueeze movement and still does — even though it may have been ahead of its time. We still believe that a #SilverSqueeze is likely to occur in the not-too-distant future when the manipulating institutions finally lose control of the physical silver market. We have also written extensively (here, here and here) about the manipulation and suppression of the physical gold and silver markets.

The proliferation of “paper" silver products (ETFs, futures, and other derivatives) dwarfs the supply of actual physical silver by a multiple of at least 100 to 1. The sheer volume of outstanding paper silver has had the effect of absorbing demand that would normally have flowed into and benefited the physical silver market. Furthermore, the glut of ersatz silver has suppressed the price of physical silver and has prevented true and fair price discovery.

In the coming #SilverSqueeze, we believe that investors will be forced to reckon with the fact that there is just a fraction of the physical silver in existence that they believed, which will lead to a scramble for physical silver while paper silver products sink in value. Silver’s recent breakout, if it can be sustained, has a strong potential of evolving into a #SilverSqueeze as the bull market gains momentum.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 13:00

Tesla Shares Slide As Price-Cuts In US, China, & Germany Spark Worsening EV Price-War 

Tesla shares tumbled nearly 6% on Monday morning, on pace for the seventh straight down session, as the EV-maker once again slashed vehicle prices across major markets—China, Germany, and the US—amid the worsening EV price war. 

In China, Tesla dropped Model 3, Y, S, and X vehicle prices by 14,000 yuan, or $1,933, according to Bloomberg. US prices for Model Y, S, and X vehicles were reduced by $2,000. The Model 3 saw no reduction in price in the US. 

A base-level Model Y in China now starts at around 250,000 Yuan, or $35,000. In the US, base models of Tesla Y, S, and X begin at $43,000, $73,000, and $78,000, respectively. 

Following the price cuts, Evercore's Chris McNally told clients that Tesla's China business "may now be breakeven or even negative" based on earnings before interest and taxes. This isn't good for the company operating in the world's largest EV market. 

The continued and worsening EV price war led Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Li Auto to cut prices by 6% to 7% across its vehicle lineup. The L7 sport utility vehicle now starts at around 301,800 yuan. 

On Sunday, Musk wrote on X, ​​"Tesla prices must change frequently in order to match production with demand." 

Other cars change prices constantly and often by wide margins via dealer markups and manufacturer/dealer incentives. Only a fool thinks the “MSRP” is the real price.

Tesla prices must change frequently in order to match production with demand.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 21, 2024

Wall Street soured on the latest round of price cuts, with shares down a little more than 4% around lunchtime.

"The volatility of prices has, however, impacted the appetite of professional buyers such as leasing and rental companies – Sixt and Hertz have elected to reduce their Tesla fleets due, in part, to uncertain used pricing," HSBC analyst Pushkar Tendolkar told clients. 

The stock has plunged 43% this year, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P500.

Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla was preparing to cut 10% of its global workforce, approximately 14,000 employees. Then, on Monday, Bloomberg reported that the company's newly formed marketing team was laid off. 

Tesla also slashed the price of its Full Self-Driving software from $12,000 to $8,000 in the US. This followed the most recent halving of the FSD subscription from $200 to $100 per month. 

Source: @Tslachan

On Tuesday, Tesla is expected to report first-quarter earnings. LSEG data shows that the world's most valuable automaker is likely to post its first revenue drop and lowest gross margin in nearly four years. This comes after the company reported a slide in vehicle deliveries for the first quarter earlier this month. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 12:40

Kick Back, Watch It Crumble

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

The title to this post comes from one of my favorite NOFX songs, Dinosaurs Will Die.

While I’m sure the band in absolutely no way agrees with most, if not all, of my political leanings, the critiques they raise about the music industry in the song could serve just as well as many of the questions I want to ask of legacy mainstream media and politicians from both sides of the aisle in our government.

Leading those questions, for me, is this one: Doesn’t it elicit a hopeless feeling sometimes that we always have to learn the hard way in this country?

Few things are surer than taxes and death, but one of them is that our powers that be will make up any excuses necessary, scapegoat anything possible, and generally exercise every single possible wrong decision before reluctantly realizing that a consequential, uncomfortable yet important, proactive adult decision needs to be made and/or communicated to the American public.

Nobody ever wants to fess up to doing something wrong and nobody has a tolerance for even an ounce of discomfort, even when it accompanies an obvious decision that is in the best interest of our nation.

There have been too many examples in recent memory to name, but one of the latest bouts of us acting like a scared 6 year old with an aversion to reality was the farce of the Fed and Biden administration constantly telling the nation that inflation was transitory, when that has turned out to be the polar opposite of the truth.

Janet Yellen, unable to ascertain a clue in the real world, looking for one in the virtual world.

Zooming out from the inflation farce, monetary policy in general is another example of our inability to digest even subatomic amounts of bad news. We would rather pile on larger and larger tranches of quantitative easing, flying blind and ignorant of the potential consequences of our novel virus of a monetary policy experiment, than deal with the reality—or even the thought—of a recession.

Captain O’Connell said it best in Armed and Dangerous:

“The world is a sh*thole, full of sh*tty little scumbags, who are scared sh*tless.”

Yes, we have chickenshit cowards, whose fragility won’t physically allow their bodies to utter the truth, on both sides of the political aisle. It is a toxic brew of being spineless and an incessant need to be reelected.

Donald Trump lied to us over and over about Covid, saying we had 15 cases that were going to zero. Ben Bernanke told us that subprime housing was contained in the very moments leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Joe Biden is blaming today’s inflation, very obviously the result of the massive money printing that took place during Covid, on Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, corporate greed and pretty much any person or inanimate object his feeble brain can conceptualize. Elected leaders support violent protests until they show up on their front lawn. They have no problem telling us that we need to stay home and isolate while they go out to expensive dinners and make trips to the salon. One presidential candidate rails on the other for corruption while engaging in the very same practices they decry.

Out of the hundreds of representatives in Congress, I could probably count the people of integrity from both sides of the aisle using one hand — to say we have lost our way would be a vast understatement. While I thought Bob Moriarty did a great job outlining the end of the empire on my last podcast with him, this weekend provided us an even clearer example of just how profoundly lost we have become.

It’s already bad enough that the nation is in such a precarious debt-to-GDP situation that more than 90% of countries in history that have followed the same fiscal path have wound up defaulting. And it’s similarly disturbing that, despite these obvious realities and the Federal Reserve being stuck between a rock and a hard place, we have thrown our hands up in the air and decided to YOLO the economy by spending as much as humanly possible before the inevitable default.

Honestly, I’m not trying to be hyperbolic, but monetarily and fiscally there seems to be no other way to describe our government’s actions other than willingly and excitedly driving the country full speed ahead towards the death of the dollar.

As if this situation wasn’t insulting enough, over the weekend the United States House of Representatives approved more foreign aid, totaling nearly $100 billion and including $60 billion to Ukraine, without similarly funding to secure our own nation’s southern border.

Putting aside the very real argument that we simply don’t have the money to spend—I’ve given up on trying to reason with anybody about that argument — how could we then still put foreign nations' security above our own? This weekend was a glaring example of how truly futile an exercise it is to hope for reason and common sense in Congress.

Passing this foreign aid not only shows that our leaders can’t “read the room”, it goes to show they simply don’t know the difference between being nice to other nations versus extending so much help that it becomes counterintuitive to our own country. Not only that, prioritizing the security of other nations over our own is, at its core, a slap in the face to U.S. taxpayers on both sides of the aisle. And after the bill passed overwhelmingly in the House this weekend, representatives tarred and feathered those still-red-from-being-slapped faces by waving Ukrainian flags on the House floor.

Look, playing Devil’s advocate, I know what politicians are thinking (if you can call it that): we are in the midst of defending democracy and Western values by supporting Ukraine and Israel.

They are thinking we have always had an excess of room to spend, and it has never led to meaningful consequences for the country, so why not shovel another $100 billion of taxpayer cash that will be spent without an audit overseas?

They’re thinking the border crisis will be an election issue and that both sides will secretly be happy that an agreement hasn’t been reached so that it can play out as a key issue leading up to November. In addition to thinking these things, they’re thinking generally that they are doing the right thing.

It’s the same type of naïve logic that people reason to themselves when helping out a friend or family member who is an addict. They continue to lend them the 20 bucks a day that they ask for, hoping that eventually they will find a long-term solution to their addiction while staving off short-term withdrawals by buying more drugs, booze or lottery tickets.

They do it so the person stops asking for the day and many times they do it because they think it’s the right thing to do. And, as is almost always the case, it isn’t, and the “helper”, who has actually become an “enabler”, winds up as one of the key figures in an intervention where they have to eventually threaten to withhold all of the “help” they’ve been giving and try to put the addict to a decision to break out of the devastating grip of the addiction pattern they’re in.

I’m not trying to liken Ukraine or Israel to addicts—I can see the benefit to helping both nations and certainly I can see the benefit of trying to defend Western values on a global scale. But it’s when it comes at the expense of our nation that it becomes the wrong decision. And right now, we simply don’t have the resources to offer help and—most alarmingly—we are a nation that needs to help itself first.

I don’t know what it’s going to take for us to reach the point where we realize we need an intervention, but sadly our history of cowardice approaching uncomfortable problems and making tough decisions leads me to believe it’ll come only at a point after it is far too late.

Looking back from that point, it’ll be so obvious how we failed to do the right thing for our country at these crucial moments. We will deal with the consequences then because we will be forced to. Eventually, no matter how catastrophic the issue, we will figure out a path to rebuild—not unlike other nations and empires that have fallen or defaulted—and we will carry on. This I’ve come to accept.

But don’t be surprised if the shame and humiliation of slapping the US taxpayer in the face like we’ve done this weekend isn’t quite as easy to process, get over and rebuild from.

My only hope is that our misguided decision-making at some point serves as a learning experience for future generations. But for us now, sadly, the die has already been cast, and my prediction is the coming years and decades will be bumpy ones.

QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR, reprinted under a Creative Commons license or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 12:25

Is­rael's Mil­i­tary In­tel­li­gence Chief Resigns Over Oct.7 Failures

Israel’s top military intelligence official has announced his resignation in a shock development for the country while it's still at war, citing his failure to anticipate the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack. Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, chief of the Israel Defense Forces Military Intelligence Directorate, is expected to vacate the position as soon as his replacement is appointed. 

This makes Haliva the first senior officer to resign over Oct.7, and comes as large Israeli protests have persisted in reaction to the Netanyahu government's failure to achieve the safe return of the remaining hostages being held by Hamas.

Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, chief of IDF Military Intelligence Directorate

A military announcement confirmed the resignation has been approved by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. According to a statement in Israeli media, "Alongside Haliva, other top defense officials have said they bear responsibility for the deadly invasion carried out by Hamas on October 7, including the head of the Shin Bet security agency and the IDF chief of staff."

As for these additional officials, "None of them has announced plans to resign as of yet, though many are expected to do so once the security situation stabilizes," Times of Israel reports.

There's been widespread questioning as to how Hamas and other Palestinian militants were able to breach Israel's southern borders with ease on Oct.7 - even overrunning IDF border outposts, amid the deadly attack on the Nova music festival. Israel has some of the most sophisticated and advance surveillance systems in the world.

Over 1,160 people were killed, mostly civilians, and more than 240 Israelis and foreigners were taken hostage, but many of the captives have since died. The security failures of Oct.7 are still under investigation and are likely to be scrutinized for years to come.

But Al Jazeera observes that Gen. Haliva's resignation from the top military intelligence post is also political and relates to PM Netanyahu's handling of the crisis and ongoing war in Gaza:

Akiva Eldar, an Israeli author and former columnist with Haaretz newspaper, says Major-General Halavi quit likely because Netanyahu isn’t going to end the war on Gaza anytime soon.

Eldar added another reason is that the prime minister “is not interested in bringing the captives back to Israel”.

“Netanyahu is the highest authority and he never took responsibility [for the Hamas attack] so Haliva wanted to send a personal message to tell him, ‘If I can do it, you can do it,’” he said.

As for the Israeli military's own internal investigation into Oct.7 security and intel failures, it is expected to look the way back to 2018 in terms of scope.

The following areas will focus of a deep investigation: "The main subjects being investigated by the General Staff are: the development of the IDF’s perception of Gaza, with an emphasis on the border, starting in 2018; the IDF’s intelligence assessments of Hamas from 2018 until the outbreak of the war; the intelligence and decision-making process on the eve of October 7, as well as the days leading up to it; and the command and control, formations, and orders given during battles between October 7 and 10, when troops restored control over all communities and army bases in southern Israel that had been invaded by Hamas," according to Times of Israel.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 12:05

"Reality Check" - JP Morgan Warns Of Delay To Global Energy Transition

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Inflation, interest rates, and wars may well delay the energy transition by quite a long time, JP Morgan has warned in a call for “a reality check” on its shift from hydrocarbons to alternatives.

“While the target to net zero is still some time away, we have to face up to the reality that the variables have changed,” the bank’s head of global energy strategy, Christyan Malek, told the Financial Times.

Malek was the lead author of a new report by JP Morgan focusing on energy.

The report noted higher interest rates, inflation, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East were all factors acting as setbacks for the transition.

The report—and Malek’s FT interview—coincided with another report, by Reuters, quoting Rystad Energy analysts as warning about the negative effects of higher interest rates on wind and solar energy developers.

"Owing to the capital-intensive (Capex) nature of renewable energy...they are inherently more susceptible to high-interest rates," Rystad Energy’s head of renewables and power, Vegard Wiik Vollset, said.

Wood Mackenzie has also warned that higher rates are having a negative effect on the economics of wind and solar, as a 2% rate increase can push the levelized cost of electricity for these two sources as much as 20% higher.

“Interest rates are much higher,” JP Morgan’s Malek also said, speaking to the Financial Times.

“Government debt is significantly greater and the geopolitical landscape is structurally different. The $3tn to $4tn it will cost each year come in a different macro environment.”

Because of these challenges, Malek forecasts that governments will dial down the push to transition from oil and gas to wind and solar as their financial resources dwindle.

The FT noted as an example the Scottish parliament’s recent decision to abandon a 75% emission reduction target by 2030 admitting it could not be achieved.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 11:45