Zero Hedge

Canadian Hikers Get The COVID-Style Tyranny Treatment

Canadian Hikers Get The COVID-Style Tyranny Treatment

Authored by Jim Bovard

Canadian politicians are creating one bonfire after another of freedom and individual rights. COVID crackdowns established persecution precedents that politicians in some provinces refuse to allow to gather dust. Politicians are claiming the right to financially cripple anyone who makes a single misstep in violation of the latest idiotic decrees.

On August 5, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston decreed a $25,000 fine for anyone walking in the woods or otherwise violating a new prohibition that covered both government and private lands. The prohibition will continue until October. Houston declared, “Most wildfires are caused by human activity, so to reduce the risk, we’re keeping people out of the woods until conditions improve. I’m asking everyone to do the right thing—don’t light that campfire, stay out of the woods and protect our people and communities.” Canadian politicians are exploiting wildfires the same way that former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau exploited COVID to lockdown the entire nation.

One critic on X/Twitter scoffed that “the province needs 10 weeks of no walking in the woods to flatten the curve”—paralleling the “two weeks to flatten the curve” crapola that initially sanctified the most onerous COVID restrictions. During the pandemic, Nova Scotia heavily fined citizens caught walking their dogs or exercising in park.

The government failed to document how the environmental peril situation this year was fundamentally different than in previous years. Author Peter Clark observed, “Fears of arson or climate hysteria appear to be behind bans on fishing & hiking in Nova Scotia’s forests. Canada’s forest fires have fallen almost half in the last 40 years & seem unrelated to weather or climate.” At the same time that Nova Scotian politicians are treating every resident and visitor like an arsonist, Canadian governments have let actual arsonists go free with legal wrist slaps.

Canadians are denouncing the new decree as “climate confinement”—an ominous development in a nation whose politicians have long swooned over the World Economic Forum. According to Travel and Tour News, “Even though the COVID-19 pandemic has officially ended, the consequences of restrictive policies are still being felt. With domestic travel restrictions now in place due to wildfire risks, many Canadians feel that their freedom to explore their country has been drastically reduced.”

“They’ve turned the great outdoors into the Forbidden Forest,” scoffed one critic. A photography website warned: “Photographing in the Woods in Nova Scotia Is Currently Illegal.” The government decrees provoked a firestorm of opposition:

“How does hiking in the woods with my dogs come across as a fire hazard?”

“Please tell me the difference between a trail and an unpaved road.”

“I’m confused. We’re banned from the woods? Half of us live in the woods.”

Nova Scotia established a snitch line so people could report neighbors or hooligans who strolled in the woods, and it quickly received thousands/tens of thousands of complaints.

Many opponents of the anti-hiking decree would support a government ban on campfires or other fires in areas at risk of wildfires. But defenders of the ban have gone stir crazy (maybe they have been inside too long?). They have claimed that “hikers could cause fires by dropping water bottles that might, in a remote theoretical scenario, focus sunlight like a magnifying glass.” Also, hiking in the woods might cause an asteroid to hit the earth, so better safe than sorry.

Canadian political mania has gone even further than in the progressive states south of the U.S.-Canadian border. Christine Van Geyn of the Canadian Constitution Foundation warns that “governments and institutions have embraced what’s been called safetyism: the belief that safety, especially from physical or emotional harm, should override all other values, including freedom, autonomy and open debate. When safety becomes the highest good, risk becomes intolerable, state control is normalized ‘for your own good,’ and dissent is cast as dangerous.”

But according to some Canadian political scorecards, the risk of wildfires apparently nullifies the risk of tyranny.  And since there will always be a risk of wildfires, tyranny will be a small price to pay for any purported risks politicians choose to suppress.

The pre-emptive repression of hikers and dog walkers is symptomatic of regimes that feel entitled to unlimited power. The same mindset is driving Canada’s persecution of the leaders of the COVID lockdown protests. According to Canada’s top prosecutors, the only thing worse than tyranny is “mischief.” And the worst possible “mischief” is objecting to tyranny.

The Canadian government is seeking an eight year prison sentence for one of the leaders of the COVID “Freedom Convoy” protest that riled Ottawa in early 2022. In April, a court ruled that Tamara Lich and Chris Barber were not guilty of obstructing police or intimidation during the demonstrations. But they were convicted of “mischief”—in part because the truckers in the forty mile convoy honked their horns to protest some of the most oppressive COVID mandates in the world.

After Trudeau dictated that all truck drivers who cross the U.S. border must get COVID vaccines, a protest quickly snowballed and landed in Canada’s capital. Trudeau responded by invoking the Emergencies Act, effectively dropping a legal nuclear bomb on his opponents. Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland announced that the government was “broadening the scope of Canada’s…terrorist-financing rules so that they cover Crowd Funding Platforms and the payment service providers they use.” The Trudeau government did not formally redefine horn honking as a terrorist offense but that didn’t impede their crackdown. Banks were authorized to freeze the personal accounts of anyone suspected of donating to the truckers. No court order was necessary to strip suspected COVID dissidents of their property. The government conscripted towing companies to cart away the trucks of the protestors.

Actually, the COVID vaccines were catastrophically failing to prevent infections at the same time Trudeau dropped an iron fist on anti-vax protestors. Almost 90% of Canadian adults had been vaccinated by the start of 2022 but COVID cases were soaring, setting records almost every week. Even though he was vaxxed and boosted, Trudeau himself came down with COVID during the trucker protest.

In January 2024, a Canadian federal judge ruled that Trudeau’s use of the Emergencies Act had been unreasonable, illegal, and unconstitutional. Trudeau’s regulations “criminalized the attendance of every single person at those protests regardless of their actions.”  The judge slammed “the absence of any objective standard” for freezing bank accounts. There was no “threat to the security of Canada” – regardless of Trudeau’s panic about so many Canadians scoffing at his decrees and his majesty. But the court decision provided no relief for any of the victims whose bank accounts were unjustifiably seized or whose freedom and privacy was shredded.

Unless it is overturned, the Nova Scotia ban on hiking, photographing, and dog walking will set a precedent that will ravage far more Canadian freedom. Such policies will create a toxic legal precedents that could prove far more disruptive in this nation than the occasional smoke from Canadian wildfires.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 23:10

Labored Daze

Labored Daze

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

In the labored daze of AI hype and GDP "growth," few seem to notice the workforce is tired of being exploited as an uncomplaining resource.

"Great Powers" claim their greatness on prestige technologies and military force, but how do they measure up if we change the metrics to how they treat their workforces. How great are they then? China and the U.S. claim the mantles of "Great Powers" but if we look at how well they treat their workforces, both rate poorly.

What matters in assessing the workforce isn't just wages; what matters is the entire quality of life. In this regard, childcare matters, because 1) without children, the "Great Power" has no future, and 2) the lives and budgets of workers with children revolve around the ease or difficulty of caring for their children. The "Great Power" state can either do a lot, do a little, or do nothing to help working parents.

Now that China's birthrate is plummeting, the state has launched a few modest initiatives to help parents with the high costs of raising children. If we consider the cost of childcare to per capita GDP, the cost of childcare and education in China is high. It's also absurdly burdensome in the U.S., which has also left childcare expenses up the parents and market forces, which unsurprisingly have pushed the costs of having a child and childcare to the stratosphere.

China's total fertility rate was 1.1 children per woman in 2024, far below the replacement level of 2.1 children needed to sustain a stable population. America's rate is around 1.6, also below replacement.

Compared to nations that pay for three years of childcare leave so at least one parent can care for the child at home to age 3, the "Great Powers" aren't even close to "great." Abysmal is a better description.

Let's consider another metric: how well do the "Great Powers" treat their small-scale farmers and the people who raise their food? Once again, both "Great Powers" rate poorly. While the financial media focuses breathless attention on AI and measures of consumption, few pundits bother looking at how well the "Great Powers" treat their small-scale farmers and ag workforce. Pensions for low-earning family farmers? Not "great" by any measure.

After all, who needs children or food when you have AI data centers and robots delivering ultra-processed snacks? In both self-proclaimed "Great Powers," the workforce is viewed as 1) a resource to be exploited (China's infamous "996," the grind of 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week, and America's equally infamous "on call all weekend if the Boss texts you"), or 2) as consumers driving economic "growth" by purchasing more ultra-processed snacks and commoditized experiences.

If life is so great for the "Great Power" workforces, then where did laying flat, let it rot, the garbage time of history and the Five No's come from? The Five No's: no house, no car, no extraneous consumption, no marriage and no children.

Laying flat (tang ping): rejection of the hyper-competitive rat race and diminishing returns for punishing workloads, the desire for a simpler, more satisfying and enjoyable life; disillusionment with the fast-receding "China Dream / American Dream," and the realization that the promise that material abundance would make everyone blissfully happy is false, as manic consumerism doesn't generate fulfillment, meaning, purpose or happiness.

Let it rot (bai lan) summarizes the realization that the present era is the garbage time of history, and the appropriate response is to "actively embrace a deteriorating situation, rather than trying to turn it around."

The entire AI story boils down to reaping billions in profits by replacing the human workforce en masse, another manifestation of exploitation and disregard. The workforce's "job" is to generate and consume declining-quality products and services to generate "growth" and profits, a resource to be exploited that is more or less divided into debt-serfs (bottom 80%) and tax donkeys (top 10%), with the remaining 10% luxuriating in an illusory "middle class" featuring both debt and taxes.

In both "Great Powers," the billionaire and political classes are doing great, the workforce, not so much, as market forces have jacked up the cost of living and the gains of their labor are siphoned off and sluiced into state excess and capital gains, 90% of which are collected by the ownership / shareholder class.

This chart tells the story of the past 50 years: labor's share of the national income has declined, to the benefit of the top few. The garbage time of history, indeed.

In the labored daze of AI hype and GDP "growth," few seem to notice the workforce is tired of being exploited as an uncomplaining resource. Since outright revolt is quickly crushed by state force, the only option is opting out, via financial nihilism, laying flat, the five No's or let it rot, all expressions of the abandonment of false promises and diminishing returns on following orders.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 22:00

Electromagnetic Weapon Destroys Drone Swarm In Seconds: 'Singularity Event'

Electromagnetic Weapon Destroys Drone Swarm In Seconds: 'Singularity Event'

Drones have quickly become all the rage among military leaders and Silicon Valley investors, but new weaponry could threaten the nascent technology’s swift rise.

Last Tuesday, defense contractor Epirus quietly tested its latest electromagnetic weapon, Leonidas, against a swarm of 49 quadcopters, neutralizing them in seconds at Camp Atterbury, Indiana, according to Axios, the only news outlet invited to the groundbreaking test. Numerous U.S. military services and foreign allies, including Indo-Pacific partners, witnessed the event. In an interview with Axios, Epirus CEO Andy Lowery hailed the “forcefield system” as a “singularity event.”

Epirus' Integrated Fires Protection Capability High-Powered Microwave weapons at Balikatan 2025 in the Philippines. Photo: Brandon Rickert/U.S. Army

The test by Epirus comes as the U.S. military is aggressively advancing its drone capabilities to maintain air superiority in an era of rapidly evolving unmanned systems, spurred by lessons from conflicts like Ukraine’s use of commercial drones against Russia. The Pentagon’s recent policy shift, announced in July by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, reclassifies small drones (Group 1 and 2, under 55 pounds) as consumables akin to ammunition, empowering lower-level commanders to procure and deploy them swiftly, bypassing cumbersome bureaucratic processes. The move, which is part of Hegseth’s “Unleashing U.S. Military Drone Dominance” directive, mandates that every U.S. military squad, prioritizing Indo-Pacific units, integrate U.S.-made drones by 2026.

Namely, Hegseth’s policy aims to accelerate acquisition through colonel- and captain-led procurement, AI-driven “Blue List” component sourcing, and dedicated drone testing ranges by 2027.

However, the success of systems like Leonidas signals that as the U.S. scales its drone arsenal, it must also prepare for advanced countermeasures that could undermine the effectiveness of these low-cost, agile systems, forcing a strategic balance between offensive drone capabilities against adversaries such as China.

H/T CAPITAL

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 21:25

US To Deploy Controversial Typhon Missile System To Japan For First Time

US To Deploy Controversial Typhon Missile System To Japan For First Time

Authored by Dave DeCamp via Antiwar.com,

Russia and China strongly condemned the deployment of the Typhon, which would have been banned by the now-defunct INF Treaty...

The US Army announced on Friday that it will be deploying the controversial Typhon missile system to Japan for drills in September, a move strongly condemned by Russia and China.

The Typhon, also known as Mid-Range Capability, is a land-based missile launcher that can fire nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range exceeding 1,000 miles, and SM-6 missiles, which can hit targets up to 290 miles away. The missile system would have been banned under the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a treaty with Russia that the US withdrew from in 2019.

According to Stars and Stripes, the Typhon is being deployed to a US Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, about 25 miles southeast of Hiroshima, which puts mainland China and parts of eastern Russia in range if the system is armed with Typhons.

A US Army Mid-Range Capability System, also known as a Typhon, fires a Standard Missile-6 at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico on November 8, 2024 (US Army photo via DVIDS)

The drills for which the Typhon is being deployed will be held from September 11 to September 25, but that doesn’t mean the missile system will return to the US at the conclusion of the exercises. A Typhon that the US deployed to the Philippines for drills in April 2024 remains in the country to this day, and there is talk of the US potentially sending another one.

“China always opposes the United States deploying the Typhon Mid-Range Capability missile system in Asian countries,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Friday in response to the news about the Typhon deployment to Japan.

“We urge Japan to take a hard look at its history of aggression, follow the path of peaceful development, act prudently in military and security areas, and refrain from further losing the trust of its Asian neighbours and the international community,” Guo added.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow viewed the deployment as “another destabilising step as part of Washington’s course toward ramping up the potential of ground-based shorter and intermediate-range missiles.”

She added that deploying Typhons “in regions near Russia poses a direct strategic threat to Russia” and noted Japan’s “accelerated militarization” in cooperation with the US.

Russia recently announced that it is no longer bound by a self-imposed moratorium on the deployment of missile systems that were previously banned by the INF Treaty.

The US has previously deployed a Typhon system to Denmark for drills and plans a long-term deployment of a Typhon or another system with a similar range in Germany by 2026

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 20:50

AI & The New Frontier Of Torts: ChatGPT Faces Claims Of Suicide, Defamation, & Even Murder

AI & The New Frontier Of Torts: ChatGPT Faces Claims Of Suicide, Defamation, & Even Murder

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“I know what you’re asking, and I won’t look away from it.”

Those final words to a California teenager about to commit suicide were not from some manipulative friend in high school or sadistic voyeur on the Internet.  Adam Raine, 16, was speaking to ChatGPT, an AI system that has replaced human contacts in fields ranging from academia to business to media.

The exchange between Raine and the AI is part of the court record in a potentially groundbreaking case against OpenAI, the company that operates ChatGPT.

It is only the latest lawsuit against the corporate giant run by billionaire Sam Altman.

In 2017, Michele Carter was convicted of involuntary manslaughter after she urged her friend, Conrad Roy, to go through with his planned suicide:

“You need to do it, Conrad… All you have to do is turn the generator on and you will be free and happy.”

The question is whether, if Michele were named Grok (another AI system), there would also be some form of liability.

OpenAI stands accused of an arguably more serious act in supplying a virtual companion who effectively enabled a suicidal teen — with lethal consequences.

At issue is the liability of companies in using such virtual employees in dispensing information or advice.  If a human employee of OpenAI negligently gave harmful information or counseling to a troubled teen, there would be little debate that the company could be sued for the negligence of its employee. As AI replaces humans, these companies should be held accountable for their virtual agents.

In a response to the lawsuit, OpenAI insists that “ChatGPT is trained to direct people to seek professional help” but “there have been moments where our systems did not behave as intended in sensitive situations.” Of course, when the company “trains” an AI agent poorly and that agent does “not behave as intended,” it sounds like a conventional tort that should be subject to liability.

OpenAI is facing other potential litigation over these “poorly trained” AI agents. Writer Laura Reiley wrote an essay about how her daughter, Sophie, confided in ChatGPT before taking her own life. It sounded strikingly familiar to the Raines case: “AI catered to Sophie’s impulse to hide the worst, to pretend she was doing better than she was, to shield everyone from her full agony.”

While OpenAI maintains that it is not running a suicide assistance line, victims claim that it is far worse than that: Its AI systems seem to actively assist in suicides.

In the Raines case, the family claims that the system advised the teen how to hide the bruises from prior attempts from his parents and even told him if it could spot any telltale marks.

The company is also accused of fueling the mental illness of a disturbed former Yahoo executive, Stein-Erik Soelberg, 56, who expressed paranoid obsessions about his mother. He befriended ChatGPT, which he called “Bobby,” a virtual companion who is accused of fueling his paranoia for months until he killed his mother and then himself. ChatGPT is even accused of coaching Soelberg on how to deceive his 83-year-old mother before he killed her.

In one message, ChatGPT allegedly told Soelberg, “Erik, you’re not crazy. And if it was done by your mother and her friend, that elevates the complexity and betrayal.” After his mother became angry over his turning off a printer, ChatGPT took his side and told him her response was “disproportionate and aligned with someone protecting a surveillance asset.” At one point, ChatGPT even helped Soelberg analyze a Chinese food receipt and claimed it contained “symbols” representing his mother and a demon.

As a company, OpenAI can show little more empathy than its AI creations. When confronted with mistakes, it can sound as responsive as HAL 9000 in “2001: A Space Odyssey,” simply saying “I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that.”  

When the system is not allegedly fueling suicides, it seems to be spreading defamation.

Previously, I was one of those defamed by ChatGPT when it reported that I was accused of sexually assaulting a law student on a field trip to Alaska as a Georgetown faculty member. It did not matter that I had never taught at Georgetown, never taken law students on field trips, and had never been accused of any sexual harassment or assault. ChatGPT hallucinated and reported the false story about me as fact.

I was not alone. Harvard Professor Jonathan Zittrain, CNBC anchor David Faber, Australian mayor Brian Hood, English professor David Mayer, and others were also defamed.

OpenAI brushed off media inquiries on the false story and has never contacted me, let alone apologized for the defamation. Instead, it ghosted me. To this day, if someone asks ChatGPT about Jonathan Turley, the system says it has no information or refuses to respond. Recent media calls about the ghosting went unanswered.

OpenAI does not have to respond.

The company made the problem disappear by disappearing the victim. The company can ghost people and refuse to respond because there is little legal deterrent.

There is no tort for AI failing to acknowledge or recognize someone that they decide to digitally erase.

That is why these lawsuits are so important. The alleged negligence and arrogance of OpenAI will only get worse in the absence of legal and congressional action. As these companies wipe out jobs for millions, it cannot be allowed to treat humans as mere fodder or digestives for its virtual workforce.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of the best-selling “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” His upcoming book, “Rage and the Republic,” discusses the impact of AI and robotics on the future of our democracy and economy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 19:40

Ukraine War To Drag On With No End In Sight: Germany's Merz

Ukraine War To Drag On With No End In Sight: Germany's Merz

Hawkish European leaders continue to speak in terms of Cold War-era domino theory nonsense, with the assumption that Russia aims to take over European countries one by one.

This is exactly how German Chancellor Friedrich Merz sounded in telling German public broadcaster ZDF on Sunday that Ukraine has to be defended, and not compromise, or else Germany could be next to be at risk of Russian invasion. He also said on this basis that the Ukraine war is likely to drag on with no end in sight.

Image: Ukrainian Presidency's offce

While he described he hasn’t lost hope of a Trump-brokered ceasefire - he said he still "harbors no illusions" and that backing Ukraine's defense remains an "absolute priority".

"We are trying to end it as quickly as possible. But certainly not at the price of Ukraine’s capitulation. You could end the war tomorrow if Ukraine surrendered and lost its independence," Merz said.

"Then the next country would be at risk the day after tomorrow. And the day after that, it would be us. That is not an option," the German chancellor continued.

This seems at least a tacit acknowledgement that it is indeed Western action which continued to fuel the proxy war and keep it going.

His assumption that the ceasefire could only be achieved if Ukraine "lost its independence" is a dubious one, given that Russia is not demanding the whole of Ukraine or to have Kiev under its control, but wants the eastern Russian-speaking territories and an absolute pledge of neutrality regarding NATO.

"I want the US to work with us as long as possible to try to solve this problem," Merz said. But "diplomacy is not about flipping a switch overnight and then everything will be fine again," he added.

But Merz also remarked separately last Thursday it was now "obvious" that a meeting between Zelensky would not happen. The White House has expressed concerns that the Europeans sought to thwart this all along.

The Associated Press has tallied that over the course of the war Germany has committed military support worth some 40 billion euros ($47 billion).

Throughout the war Germany has also ramped up its post-WWII 'neutral' defense sector, and prioritizing military readiness once again, which marks a historic turn. Even small European countries like Denmark have joined in on pledges to keep arming Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 19:05

The Progressive Pantheon Of Pathetic Heroes

The Progressive Pantheon Of Pathetic Heroes

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

American left-wing heroes are proving to be a creepy bunch.

So what do some of the most renowned “resistance” left-wing heroes have in common other than shared hatred of conservative America?

They are either criminals, pathological liars, or self-described performance-art victims.

Take Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the current face of progressive resistance to the enforcement of federal immigration law.

No one questions that Garcia had previously received deportation orders before he was re-arrested by ICE.

No one argues that his current wife, Vasquez Sura, had in the past successfully petitioned for at least two protective restraining orders against Abrego Garcia—to stop his violent beatings and his manic destruction of household items.

In the old Democratic Party, the worst allegation possible was to be cast as a beater of women.

No one contests that in 2022, Garcia was pulled over in Tennessee for speeding and recklessly veering out of his lane.

He was then found to have an invalid driver’s license. He was accompanied by eight illegal aliens without IDs. And his vehicle was registered to an imprisoned and likely human trafficker. Garcia had been variously recognized in deportation hearings as a member of the violent and lethal MS-13 gang.

Yet when ICE began to deport him, the left went ballistic and constructed him as some sort of civil rights saint.

Senators tossed drinks with the illegal alien.

A few politicos trekked on a holy hejira to El Salvador to demand from the autonomous El Salvadorian government the release of a Salvadorian citizen held in jail on Salvadorian soil—as if they were 19th-century Yanqui imperialists dictating to an elected Central American government that the United States had more rights of jurisdiction over an illegal alien than did the government of El Salvador over one of their own citizens on their own soil.

Feminists said little about his brutal propensity to strike women. Anti-gang activists went mostly mum about his MS-13 affiliations. Those decrying human trafficking were quiet about his transportation of illegal aliens.

Instead, all that was needed of this useful illegal alien pawn was the Democrat meme that Abrego Garcia was a victimized person of color and a target of Trump’s supposedly racist, restrictionist, and xenophobic border policies. His crimes in comparison were immaterial if not advantageous to the cause. No one bothered to remember the legions of innocent women killed and raped by violent illegal aliens.

Mahmoud Khalil was a different, far smoother sort of leftist icon. The pro-Hamas Algerian “student” came to the US supposedly for the chance at an Ivy League education. He soon stayed on a green card, becoming the poster boy of anti-Israel protests at Columbia.

To counter sometimes violent campus and urban pro-Hamas demonstrations and endemic anti-Semitism in elite higher education, the Trump administration decided that it no longer wished to import student force multipliers of widespread anti-American and anti-Semitic boilerplate.

In other words, the Trump administration ordered Khalil deported on the grounds that he was admitted as a guest student, not a perennial campus gadfly organizer spouting support for the terrorists of Hamas.

Note the U.S. is the host, Khalil the guest. And hosts need no reasons to disinvite unruly or obnoxious guests, who abuse the privileges (that most American citizens lack) of attending an Ivy League school.

Yet in the Democratic binary of oppressed/oppressors, Khalil fit the bill.

He was a “lite” Hamas supporter and a clever anti-Israel activist who oversaw demonstrations that were overtly anti-Semitic in his host country. The only lingering question is why do pro-Hamas, anti-American Palestinians so often demand to visit and study in the hated U.S. when there are universities receptive and conducive to Islamists and Hamas enablers closer to home?

The left seemed mostly uninterested in any of the 1,200 slaughtered on October 7 in a time of peace, only in those who championed the cause of that murderous rampage.

The left also went gaga over the wealthy, aristocratic, and supposedly charming young Luigi Mangione, the assassin of UnitedHealth CEO Brian Thompson. Not since the terrorist and mass murderer Dzhokhar Tsarnaev adorned the cover of Rolling Stone has the left so romanticized a stone-cold psychopath.

Mangione quickly became a supposed counter-culture freedom fighter, with his good looks battling the corporate insects who supposedly feed on hoi polloi.

In reality, Thompson was an up-from-the-bootstraps Midwesterner who, by merit, not birth, climbed to the top of the corporate world, murdered by Mangione, a spoiled, rich wannabe pseudo-intellectual who cowardly hid in wait to blow apart Thompson for the supposed crime of running the company that made a profit selling needed health insurance to willing buyers.

But for the left, the death throes of Thompson were out of mind and out of sight, while Mangione was interviewed and lauded on social media as a righteous revenger and the arm of the exploited.

Do we even now remember the faker Jussie Smollett?

He was the multiracial actor who was worried that he was a fading star in a soon-to-be-cancelled TV show.

So he staged a violent crime in which he hired two burly assailants with red MAGA-like hats to 1) ambush him in the early morning hours, 2) be warded off by the feisty, heroic, cell-phone- and sandwich-holding diminutive Smollett, and 3) manage nonetheless to “whiten” Smollett with bleach (defying the laws of chemistry by not freezing when thrown on Smollett in the arctic winter Chicago night temperature) as they tossed a “noose” over his neck, shouting MAGA slurs about his black-cast Empire television series.

Smollett’s rent-a-thugs were taped buying the tools of the ambush. They had cashed Smollett’s checks as proof of his hire and confessed both to the crime and its practice run.

Yet, Smollett became the immediate heroic victim and thus proof, according to the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris, of endemic racism.

What a horrific America when brilliant and brave black stars had to fight off red-hatted, noose-carrying, bleach-bringing, Empire-hating, 2-AM-lurking, white-male, MAGA racist bullies, prowling randomly in sub-zero temperatures for targets in a liberal, mostly black neighborhood, and on the lookout for innocent, brilliant, brave, young, black, movie stars so often wandering in the deep night.

The left not only fell for that skit but for days ran with Jussie as proof of what black men have to put up with from the white establishment in Chicago.

There are lots of criminals who could be added to the leftist pantheon.

The now iconic George Floyd, despite the tragedy of his detention and death, was resisting arrest while stopped under the influence of drugs, while likely trying to pass counterfeit money, while an eight-times convicted felon, and while a former four-year convict who previously had staged a home invasion and robbery and aimed a gun at the abdomen of a female occupant.

No wonder he soon appeared memorialized on murals with wings and a halo.

Michael Brown, of the lie “hands up, don’t shoot” that went viral, was supposedly gunned down in the back as he vainly tried to flee a white racist cop looking for prey in Ferguson, Missouri.

No matter that in truth, Brown was a thief who had just strong-armed a store clerk and was confronted by a policeman while brazenly walking down the center of the street.

Brown then attacked the cop and sought in vain to grab his weapon. After their struggle, he ran away, then turned and charged the officer until he was shot.

For the left, he was another instant, noble victim of racist white police.

So naturally, weeks of protests followed, sometimes violent, as liberal elected officials visited Ferguson to show solidarity against “the militarization of the police” and to honor Michael Brown. White, entitled CNN anchors paraded in their newsrooms while holding their hands up, chanting the lie “hands up, don’t shoot.”

Octogenarian Native American activist Leonard Peltier was recently granted limited parole. He was successfully convicted a half-century earlier of murdering two FBI agents—allegedly executing two defenseless young officers with coup de gras shots to their heads as they lay wounded.

For decades, he posed as a “political prisoner” of a racist, white-rigged system. And despite an earlier failed prison break and serially refused pardons, nonetheless, in the fleeting hours of the autopen Biden administration, Peltier was finally released home under supervision—a defiant leftist resistance hero and unrepentant murderer to the end.

Both these violent and suave heroes were canonized by the left because of their perceived opposition to corporate America, or law enforcement, or a conservative administration, or white people, and, in particular, more recently, to the hated Trump.

Given its cosmic morality, the left never really cared that Jussie Smollett not just lied but that his lies could not possibly in a Newtonian world be true, or that assassin Mangione showed all the mercilessness of a professional Mafia hit man, or that it proved impossible for the guest “student” Khalil ever to voice disapproval of the mass murdering act of Hamas on October 7, or that America in 2025 did not need to import more wife beaters, human traffickers, and gang members.

Why does the left make martyrs out of monsters?

One, in postmodern America, there are too many victims for too few victimizers. So to distinguish the one from the many requires all the more psychodramas and grammar-school dramatics. Violence and claims of racism add to the hero’s mystique.

Two, the heroes are mere pawns in a larger game of “social justice” in which both useful idiots and ruthless criminals alike can advance the cause.

Morality, then, is never defined by the means but only by the eventual ends. Facts don’t matter; only the noble lies for the cause.

Three, the worshipers are, for the most part, affluent and safe; the worshiped are not so tame.

So it became easy to immortalize a Garcia—as long as he does not live next door.

It is virtuous to praise publicly a Mangione—unless he is armed and hiding in wait for your parents.

Smollett is a noble victim, at least when you’re not a cop at 3 AM trying to sort out all the preposterous lies of Jussie’s noose, bleach, and “bruises.”

“Hands up, don’t shoot” is a catchy civil-rights call to arms—at least when Michael Brown is not strong-arming you in a store or he is not charging you head down.

You can play-act Gandhi—when you’re not Garcia’s battered girlfriend, or you do not answer the door at night when George Floyd barges in with a pointed gun, or you’re not wounded and begging for your life when Leonard Peltier pulls the trigger.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 17:20

Illinois Gov Launches Historic LGBTQ Hotline For 'Persecuted' Rainbow People

Illinois Gov Launches Historic LGBTQ Hotline For 'Persecuted' Rainbow People

Authored by Benjamin Bartee via PJMedia.com,

Because Illinois apparently doesn’t have any more pressing matters of governance to attend to, such as rampant gun crime in the city of Chicago, Governor JB Pritzker recently announced a historic, “first of its kind” “legal hotline that expands access to legal information and support for LGBTQIA+ individuals across Illinois.”

 

Via Illinois Department of Human Services (emphasis added):

 

Governor JB Pritzker announced yesterday the launch of IL Pride Connect, a new statewide resource hub and first of its kind legal hotline that expands access to legal information and support for LGBTQIA+ individuals across Illinois. The Illinois Department of Human Services (IDHS), in collaboration with community partners, will lead the initiative. Governor Pritzker made the announcement at an event Thursday evening hosted by the Legal Council for Health Justice.

“In Illinois, we are fighting ignorance with information and cruelty with compassion, said Governor JB Pritzker. “Thanks to our state, philanthropic, and community partners, IL Pride Connect will inform individuals of their rights and connect them to health and social services support – making us the only state in the nation to provide free legal advice and advocacy tools to protect the LGBTQ community.”

The press release — I counted — is 1,056 words long. I read through all of it, looking for mention of any specific right that the transgenders are allegedly being denied.

There is nothing; the whole document is a word salad of subcultural jargon and lofty-sounding rhetoric about “the unique challenges LGBTQIA+ people face in today's environment.”

Continuing:

LGBTQIA+ communities are facing an unprecedented wave of legal and policy attacks from the current federal administration. These changes are not only harmful – they are cruel and dehumanizing, stripping individuals of their rights, dignity, and access to essential services like healthcare and education. IL Pride Connect was created to meet this moment….

IL Pride Connect includes a digital resource hub with legal FAQs, know-your-rights information, referrals to affirming legal and community services, and advocacy tools. It also includes a first of its kind legal hotline that operates Monday through Thursday, 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., and provides real-time information and referrals, including on name and gender marker changes, housing and education rights, and access to healthcare and public benefits*

Access to up-to-date, vetted information and resources that address the unique challenges LGBTQIA+ people face in today's environment is critical and lifesaving work,” said Gillian Knight, Program Manager of Learning & Evaluation, Healthy Communities Foundation.

*All of these rights — equity in housing, public benefits, etc. irrespective of so-called gender identity — are already enshrined in Illinois state law.

Via Illinois Department of Human Rights (emphasis added):

All individuals in Illinois have a right to be free from discrimination on the basis of their gender identity. Contrary to recent federal attempts to roll back civil and human rights, the Illinois Human Rights Act (Act) continues to provide broad civil rights protections for transgender, nonbinary, and gender nonconforming people in the areas of employment, real estate transactions (housing), financial credit, and places of public accommodation (including healthcare and schools).

The Illinois Department of Human Rights (IDHR) enforces the Act to protect persons of all gender identities from discrimination, harassment, and retaliation.  Violations of the Act are investigated by IDHR and may be adjudicated by the Illinois Human Rights Commission (IHRC) or by the courts. A person may file a charge (complaint) with IDHR if they believe they have been discriminated against or harassed based on their gender identity.  Under the Act, a person is also protected from retaliation for activities such as reporting discrimination or filing a charge.

But let’s not let facts get in the way of virtue-signaling in the culture war as a way to score cheap political points with the blue-hairs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 11:45

Key Events This Week: Jobs, Jolts, ISM, And Fed Speakers Galore

Key Events This Week: Jobs, Jolts, ISM, And Fed Speakers Galore

After a strong August, DB's Peter Sidorov writes that risk assets are starting September on a more tentative footing as Friday’s tech-led sell off on Wall Street has continued across most of Asia this morning although it has since stabilized. With rising Fed rate cut pricing supporting markets of late, investors will be keenly watching whether this is validated by the upcoming US payrolls release on Friday and subsquent negative revisions on Sept 9. The bar to derail a Fed rate cut on September 17 is extremely high (the real question is whether the cut is 25bps or 50), but with fed funds futures now pricing over 140bps of easing by the end of 2026, markets are expecting an amount of easing that since the 1980s has only occurred around recessions.

Before we preview payrolls and the Fed in more detail, the major story of the weekend came as late on Friday a US federal appeals court ruled that tariffs introduced under International Economist Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, upholding an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade. However, in its 7-4 ruling the court left the tariffs in place until October 14 giving the administration time to appeal the case to the Supreme Court. And while a majority of judges in the appeals court ruling were nominated by Democrat Presidents, there is a 6-3 Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, and Trump's tariffs are most likely to remain. Were IEEPA tariffs to be stuck down, this would invalidate most levies introduced this year, including the “reciprocal” country rates and the “fentanyl” tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, though the administration could look to implement more levies via other statutes.

Turning to the US payrolls print on Friday, DB's economists expect a modest pick up in both headline (DBe +100k vs. 73k previously) and private (+100k vs. 83k) payrolls. They see the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, with a risk that it rounds down to 4.1%. With Powell leaning towards a near-term rate cut at Jackson Hole and markets now pricing an 87% chance of a September cut, it would likely take a huge payrolls outperformance to dissuade a September cut. However, a stable unemployment rate could alleviate fears of a material downshift in the labor market, keeping the Fed cautious on further rate cuts.

The payrolls release will be preceded by the JOLTS survey on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday, two labor market indicators that have been namechecked by Governor Waller, who last week suggested that a weak payrolls print could bring a 50bp September cut in plnoteay. Other Fed officials have been less dovish but have also noted labor market risks. We will see a few Fed speakers before the blackout window starts next weekend, including St. Louis Fed President Musalem (Wednesday), NY Fed President Williams (Thursday) and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (Thursday).

Beyond the Fedspeak, markets will be glued to the latest newsflow around President Trump’s attempted removal of Fed Governor Cook. Friday’s court hearing on the injunction to block Trump from firing her yielded no decision with further filings expected this Tuesday. In a note last week DB discussed the possible implications if Governor Cook were to be removed and Trump were to achieve a majority on the Federal Reserve Board. This Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee will also hold a hearing on Stephen Miran’s confirmation for the vacant Fed Board seat as the White House looks to have him confirmed in time for the September FOMC.

While US markets will be closed today for Labor Day, other US data highlights this week will include ISM manufacturing (Tuesday) and services (Thu) prints, with the employment components of the two series, which have slipped over the past couple of months, likely to draw attention. In Europe, the main data release will be the euro area flash August CPI print tomorrow. Following the major country prints on Friday, our European economists see headline inflation rising marginally to +2.06% YoY (vs 2.0% prev.) with core falling to +2.22% (vs 2.3% prev.).

The political situation in France will remain in focus ahead of the confidence vote scheduled on September 8. Prime Minister Bayrou’s minority government looks likely to lose this with major opposition parties repeating their intent to vote against the government over the weekend. In a note published on Friday (link), DB's European economists outline the next key steps and likely paths forward and discuss the ECB’s likely reaction function to the situation in France.

Staying with geopolitics, the focus yesterday and today is on China hosting the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Yesterday China’s Xi Jinping met with India’s Narendra Modi, with the two sides pledging to “remain partners rather than rivals”. The summit has received extra attention amid Trump’s tariff pressure on Asian countries, and Modi will also meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin today, shortly after the US raised tariffs on India to 50% last week in response to its purchases of Russian oil.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday September 1

  • Data: UK July net consumer credit, M4, Japan Q2 MoF survey, Italy August budget balance, manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, July unemployment rate, Eurozone July unemployment rate
  • Other: US Labor Day holiday

Tuesday September 2

  • Data: US August ISM index, July construction spending, Japan August monetary base, France July budget balance, Italy July PPI, Eurozone August CPI, Canada August manufacturing PMI
  • Central banks: BoJ's Himino speaks
  • Earnings: Partners Group, Nio, Zscaler

Wednesday September 3

  • Data: US July JOLTS report, factory orders, August total vehicle sales, UK August official reserves changes, Italy August services PMI, Eurozone July PPI, Canada Q2 labor productivity, Australia Q2 GDP
  • Central banks: Fed's Beige Book, Fed's Musalem speaks, ECB's Lagarde speaks, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor, Greene and Breeden speak
  • Earnings: Salesforce, HPE, Figma, Gitlab, Dollar Tree, C3.ai

Thursday September 4

  • Data: US August ADP report, ISM services, July trade balance, initial jobless claims, UK August new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany August construction PMI, Eurozone July retail sales, Canada July international merchandise trade, Switzerland and Sweden August CPIs
  • Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB's Cipollone speaks, BoE's DMP survey
  • Earnings: Broadcom, Lululemon

Friday September 5

  • Data: US August jobs report, UK July retail sales, Japan July labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany July factory orders, France July trade balance, current account balance, Italy July retail sales, Canada August jobs report
  • Central banks: Fed's Goolsbee speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, the JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including an event with New York Fed President Williams on Thursday. 

Monday, September 1 

  • Labor Day holiday. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends that bond markets also close.

Tuesday, September 2 

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, August final (consensus 53.3, last 53.3)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, August (GS 50.0, consensus 49.0, last 48.0): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 2.0pt to 50.0 in August, reflecting improvement in our manufacturing survey tracker (+1.2pt to 51.9) and a tailwind from residual seasonality.
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, July (GS flat, consensus -0.1%, last -0.4%)

Wednesday, September 3 

  • 09:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at the Peterson Institute on the subject of the economy and monetary policy. Q&A is expected. On August 14, Musalem said that he expects “most of the impact of tariffs on inflation to fade in 6 to 9 months, but it could be more persistent.” He also noted that the “economy is around full employment,” and that “if the Fed were to weigh the labor market side more and reduce rates aggressively, that could lead to higher inflation expectations and be counterproductive.”
  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, July (GS 7,450k, consensus 7,373k, last 7,437k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings were roughly unchanged at 7.45mn in July based on the signal from online job postings.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, July (GS -1.2%, consensus -1.4%, last -4.8%); Durable goods orders, July final (GS -2.8%, consensus -2.8%, last -2.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, July final (consensus +1.1%, last +1.1%); Core capital goods orders, July final (last +1.1%); Core capital goods shipments, July final (last +0.7%)
  • 02:00 PM Fed Releases Beige Book, September meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the July FOMC meeting period noted that five districts had reported modest increases in activity, five districts reported flat activity, and the remaining two districts reported modest declines in activity, representing an improvement over the previous report, and that uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to the evolution of labor demand and firms’ expectations of activity growth for the remainder of the year.
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, August (GS 16.0mn, consensus 16.1mn, last 16.4mn)

Thursday, September 4 

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, August (GS +100k, consensus +80k, last +104k)
  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q2 final (GS +3.1%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.4%): Unit labor costs, Q2 final (GS +0.9%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.6%)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 30 (GS 230k, consensus 230k, last 229k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 23 (consensus 1,960k, last 1,954k)
  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, July (GS -$76.0bn, consensus -$78.0bn, last -$60.2bn): We forecast that trade balance widened by $15.8bn to $76.0bn in July, reflecting an increase in goods imports that more than offsets an increase in exports of travel services.
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, August final (consensus 55.3, last 55.4)
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, August (GS 51.5, consensus 50.9, last 50.1): We estimate that the ISM services index rebounded 1.4pt to 51.5 in August, reflecting sequential improvement in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (+0.9pt to 54.2) and a tailwind from residual seasonality.
  • 11:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed president John Williams will speak at the Economic Club of New York on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and how to navigate a changing environment and uncertainty. On August 27, Williams said that “if [the real] neutral [rate] is 1% or a bit below, [the current monetary policy stance] is restrictive,” and that “at some point, it will be appropriate to move rates down.” He also noted that GDP growth has slowed and he expects the slowdown to continue.
  • 05:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the mHub’s Industry Disruptor Series. On August 15, Goolsbee said, “We put a note of unease in the last CPI and PPI, with inflation picking up in categories that are not obviously transitory.” He also noted, “If we can assure ourselves or get a hint that for this meeting, or the meetings this fall, that we aren't on an inflationary spiral that looks to be persistent, I still think it makes sense given the strength of the economy to move rates more back to where we think they're going to settle."

Friday, September 5 

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, August (GS +60k, consensus +75k, last +73k); Private payroll employment, August (GS +80k, consensus +75k, last +83k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), August (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, : last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, August (GS 4.3%, consensus 4.3%, last 4.2%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 60k in August. On the positive side, big data indicators indicated a sequentially firmer—albeit still soft—pace of private sector job growth. On the negative side, we expect unchanged government payrolls, reflecting a 20k decline in federal government payrolls and unchanged state and local government payrolls. Additionally, August payrolls have exhibited a consistent negative bias in initial prints over the last decade. We estimate that the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% on a rounded basis (a low bar from an unrounded 4.248% in July), reflecting sequential easing in other measures of labor market slack, though see potential payback from a partial reversal of the spike in new entrant employment that boosted the unemployment rate in July. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting slightly positive calendar effects.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 11:25

Man Found Dead At Burning Man Sparks Homicide Investigation

Man Found Dead At Burning Man Sparks Homicide Investigation

Tens of thousands of people descended on a dry lakebed in Nevada over the past week, ending this weekend with the burning of a massive wooden sculpture shaped like a man. It was at that point, on Saturday night, that a man was found dead in a pool of blood, with authorities investigating it as a homicide. This is believed to be the first suspected homicide since Burning Man moved to the Black Rock Desert in 1990.

"The Pershing County Sheriff's Office is investigating the death of a single white adult male that occurred the night of Saturday, August 30 in Black Rock City," Burning Man officials wrote in a press release on its website. 

Sheriff Jerry Allen of the Pershing County Sheriff's Office said deputies at Burning Man arrived at the scene around 9:14 pm local time Saturday and "found a single white adult male lying on the ground, obviously deceased." 

AP News cited local officials who said the man was found "dead in a pool of blood and is being investigated as a homicide."

The Pershing County Sheriff's Office noted that the homicide investigation appears to be a singular case but warned everyone at the festival to be vigilant of their surroundings and acquaintances. 

There have been several fatalities over the years, including accidents, medical emergencies, and even suicides. However, the incident this past weekend, occurring just as the large wooden effigy of a man began to burn, appears to be the first homicide at the festival.

In other festival news, Orgy Dome at Burning Man was pounded by a windstorm...

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 10:55

Futures Flat As Silver Soars To 11 Year High

Futures Flat As Silver Soars To 11 Year High

US equity futures are flat, with cash markets of course closed for Labor Day holiday, stabilizing after Friday's selloff in tech stocks amid renewed Nvidia jitters, and setting a steadier tone at the start of a month that could bring plenty of tests to markets trading near record highs. S&P futures were unchanged with Nasdaq futures rising 0.1% to start a traditionally brutal month for markets. 

The stock rally to all-time highs faces a crucial stretch, with jobs numbers, inflation data and the Fed’s rate call all landing within the next three weeks, while September is notorious for hosting some of the worst market selloffs. The flurry of events will help determine whether stocks can extend gains or lose momentum.

Tariff tensions and questions over the Fed’s independence are compounding the risks.

“The bar to derail a Fed Rate cut on Sept. 17 appears high,” Deutsche Bank AG economist Peter Sidorov wrote. “But with Fed funds futures now pricing over 140 basis points of easing by the end of 2026, markets are expecting an amount of easing that since the 1980s has only occurred around recessions.”

Europe’s Stoxx 600 edged 0.1% higher with BAE Systems and Rheinmetall AG leading the advances in defense shares after the Financial Times reported that Europe is working on detailed plans for potential post-conflict deployments in Ukraine. Novo Nordisk lead a rally in health care shares after positive results from a real-world cardiovascular study for Wegovy. A regional gauge for tech stocks eked out a small gain. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

  • Rolls Royce shares climb as much as 2.4% amid reports it has held exploratory talks with advisers over funding options for its small-scale nuclear reactor unit.
  • European defense stocks, including BAE Systems and Rheinmetall, gained after the Financial Times reported that European capitals are working on “pretty precise plans” for potential military deployments to Ukraine as part of post-conflict security guarantees, citing an interview with Ursula von der Leyen.
  • Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 3.6% after the Danish drugmaker said a real-world study of people with overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular disease showed Wegovy cut the risk of heart attack, stroke or death by 57% compared with Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide.
  • Konecranes shares rise as much as 6.3% after the Finnish company was upgraded to buy by Goldman Sachs, which cites US port upgrades and a potential increase in shareholder returns as catalysts for the stock.
  • European precious metal miners, including Hochschild Mining and Fresnillo, rise as silver surges above $40 an ounce for the first time since 2011 and gold closes in on an all-time high.
  • TeamViewer gains as much as 11% following a double-upgrade to buy from underperform at BofA, which takes a more constructive stance on the German software company based on its “differentiated offering.”
  • SocGen gains as much as 1.9% on Monday as Deutsche Bank upgrades the lender to buy from hold, saying that impact from the ongoing political volatility in France “should be contained.”
  • Kainos shares soar as much as 20% after the IT services company said it expects annual revenue to be at the upper-end of expectations. Shore Capital said the update has revived sentiment by offering a more constructive tone and signs of momentum.
  • BioArctic shares rise as much as 5.6% to the highest since September 2023 after Eisai and Biogen received US regulatory approval for a new self-injected form of their Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi.

A stronger economic outlook is set to help European equities escape their narrow trading range, according to top Wall Street strategists. Goldman expects the Stoxx 600 to climb about 2% to 560 by year-end, supported by improving growth prospects, light positioning, and relatively attractive valuations. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka sees the recent loss of momentum as a “healthy” development.

Asian equities were mixed, with a 19% surge in Alibaba Group contrasting with a slump in chipmaking shares. Elsewhere, Indonesian stocks tumbled the most in nearly five months as political risks flared, with President Prabowo Subianto canceling a China trip after deadly unrest over living costs and inequality. Stress also was evident in the bond market, with yields on the nation’s 10-year government note rising to the highest in almost three weeks. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The Swedish krona and Norwegian krone lead gains against the greenback, rising 0.6% each.

In rates, US cash bond markets are closed, while European bonds weakened broadly, with a week to go before a confidence vote that could topple France’s government. The French-German 10-year spread, a key measure of risk, was little changed at 78 basis points. The gauge closed at 82 on Aug. 27, the highest since January.

In commodities, silver rose above $40 an ounce for the first time since 2011...

... while gold inched closer to an all-time high after last week's breakout, as optimism grew for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.

WTI crude futures rise 1% to near $64.70 a barrel.

There is nothing on the US macro calendar because the US is closed for Labor Day holiday.

DB's Peter Sidorov concludes the overnight wrap

As it’s the start of the month, Henry will shortly be releasing our monthly asset performance review. August began with a risk-off tone after the underwhelming July US jobs report, but markets soon recovered and the S&P 500 hit fresh records, in part thanks to a dovish pivot by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole. Nevertheless, there were several headwinds, including concerns about the Fed’s independence that led to higher inflation expectations and steeper yield curves. Meanwhile in France, the upcoming confidence vote saw the country’s 10yr yields move closer to Italy’s than at any time since 2003. See the full report in your inboxes shortly, while a rundown of last week’s moves is at the end of this text as usual.

After a strong August, risk assets are starting September on a more tentative footing as Friday’s tech-led sell off on Wall Street has continued across most of Asia this morning. With rising Fed rate cut pricing supporting markets of late, investors will be keenly watching whether this is validated by the upcoming US payrolls release on Friday. The bar to derail a Fed rate cut on September 17 appears high, but with fed funds futures now pricing over 140bps of easing by the end of 2026, markets are expecting an amount of easing that since the 1980s has only occurred around recessions.

Before we preview payrolls and the Fed in more detail, the major story of the weekend came as late on Friday a US federal appeals court ruled that tariffs introduced under International Economist Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, upholding an earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade. However, in its 7-4 ruling the court left the tariffs in place until October 14 giving the administration time to appeal the case to the Supreme Court. And while a majority of judges in the appeals court ruling were nominated by Democrat Presidents, there is a 6-3 Republican-appointed majority on the Supreme Court. Were IEEPA tariffs to be stuck down, this would invalidate most levies introduced this year, including the “reciprocal” country rates and the “fentanyl” tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, though the administration could look to implement more levies via other statutes.

Turning to the US payrolls print on Friday, our US economists expect a modest pick up in both headline (DBe +100k vs. 73k previously) and private (+100k vs. 83k) payrolls. They see the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, with a risk that it rounds down to 4.1%. With Powell leaning towards a near-term rate cut at Jackson Hole and markets now pricing an 87% chance of a September cut, it would likely take a huge payrolls outperformance to dissuade a September cut. However, a stable unemployment rate could alleviate fears of a material downshift in the labor market, keeping the Fed cautious on further rate cuts.

The payrolls release will be preceded by the JOLTS survey on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday, two labour market indicators that have been namechecked by Governor Waller, who last week suggested that a weak payrolls print could bring a 50bp September cut in play. Other Fed officials have been less dovish but have also noted labour market risks. We will see a few Fed speakers before the blackout window starts next weekend, including St. Louis Fed President Musalem (Wednesday), NY Fed President Williams (Thursday) and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (Thursday).

Beyond the Fedspeak, markets will be glued to the latest newsflow around President Trump’s attempted removal of Fed Governor Cook. Friday’s court hearing on the injunction to block Trump from firing her yielded no decision with further filings expected this Tuesday. In a note last week (see here Fed Notes: What the announcement of Cook’s removal means for the Fed) our US economists discussed the possible implications if Governor Cook were to be removed and Trump were to achieve a majority on the Federal Reserve Board. This Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee will also hold a hearing on Stephen Miran’s confirmation for the vacant Fed Board seat as the White House looks to have him confirmed in time for the September FOMC.

While US markets will be closed today for Labor Day, other US data highlights this week will include ISM manufacturing (Tuesday) and services (Thu) prints, with the employment components of the two series, which have slipped over the past couple of months, likely to draw attention. In Europe, the main data release will be the euro area flash August CPI print tomorrow. Following the major country prints on Friday, our European economists see headline inflation rising marginally to +2.06% YoY (vs 2.0% prev.) with core falling to +2.22% (vs 2.3% prev.).

The political situation in France will remain in focus ahead of the confidence vote scheduled on September 8. Prime Minister Bayrou’s minority government looks likely to lose this with major opposition parties repeating their intent to vote against the government over the weekend. In a note published on Friday (see here), our European economists outline the next key steps and likely paths forward and discuss the ECB’s likely reaction function to the situation in France.
Staying with geopolitics, the focus yesterday and today is on China hosting the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Yesterday China’s Xi Jinping met with India’s Narendra Modi, with the two sides pledging to “remain partners rather than rivals”. The summit has received extra attention amid Trump’s tariff pressure on Asian countries, and Modi will also meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin today, shortly after the US raised tariffs on India to 50% last week in response to its purchases of Russian oil.

Most Asian equity markets have started the new month on a weaker footing overnight following on Friday’s tech sell-off on Wall Street. The Nikkei (-1.60%) is leading the declines across the region, with tech stocks coming under pressure, including a -4.99% decline for Softbank. The KOSPI (-1.36%) is also struggling following US government's decision on Friday to revoke waivers on shipping chipmaking equipment to China for Samsung Electronics (-2.58%) and SK Hynix (-4.93%), with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.53%) also lower. Meanwhile, US equity futures on both the S&P 500 (-0.09%) and the NASDAQ (-0.19%) are slightly lower after initially opening higher this morning.

However, Chinese stocks are defying the trend, with the Hang Seng (+1.77%) powering ahead as Alibaba Group’s stock surged by +17% after reporting a substantial triple-digit percentage increase in AI-related product revenue in its results on Friday. The CSI (+0.11%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.42%) are inching higher as the RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI rose to a 5-month high of 50.5 in August (49.8 expected) from 49.5 in July. This comes in contrast to the official PMI figures on Sunday, which saw the manufacturing PMI (49.4 vs 49.5 exp, 49.3 prev) stay below 50. That said, China’s official non-manufacturing PMI rose from 50.1 to 50.3 (50.2 expected).

Recapping last week, the S&P 500 reached new all-time highs on Wednesday and Thursday but ended the week -0.10% lower after a -0.64% decline on Friday, which was its biggest since August 1. Tech stocks led the decline, with the NASDAQ and Mag-7 down by -1.15% and -1.38% respectively on Friday. Nvidia (-3.32% on Friday) was a major driver of this softness, losing ground after Marvell Technology’s outlook raised doubts over demand for data-centre equipment and as China’s Alibaba unveiled a new AI Chip. Last Wednesday Nvidia’s results had delivered a modest quarterly beat but saw slowing revenue growth for the data centre division, in part due to a pause in sales of AI chips to China.

Earlier in the week, markets had been buoyed by solid US data, including an upwardly revised Q2 GDP print (3.3% vs. 3.0% flash) and solid July durable goods orders. Friday saw a more mixed set of US releases. Core PCE inflation for August came largely in line with expectations at +0.27% MoM and +2.9% YoY, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment saw an unexpected decline in the final August reading, with median 5-10 year inflation expectations also seeing a downward revision from 3.9% to 3.5%.

This data reinforced rising expectations of Fed rate cuts that were also boosted by Trump’s move against Fed Governor Cook. Fed funds futures ended the week pricing 109bps of easing by next June (+2.6bps on the week), with the 2yr Treasury yield falling -7.9bps to 3.62% (-1.3bps Friday), its lowest weekly close since September 2024. At the same time, concerns about Fed independence led to a sizable steepening in the yield curve, with the 10yr yield down a modest -2.5bps to 4.23% (+2.5bps Friday) but the 30yr yield up +5.2bps to 4.93%, leaving the 2s30s slope at its steepest since November 2021.

In Europe, French assets saw significant losses after PM Bayrou’s call for a confidence vote. The CAC 40 was down -3.34% (-0.76% Friday), while the Stoxx 600 fell -1.99% (-0.64% Friday) with all major European indices declining. 10yr OAT yields rose +9.1bps, as the Franco-German 10yr spread ended the week at 79bps after hitting a 7-month high of 82bps on Wednesday. Other government bonds saw more muted moves, with 10yr bund yields +0.3bps higher (+3.0bps Friday), while BTP yields rose +6.1bps (+4.9bps Friday) suffering some contagion from the France story.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 10:20

Afghanistan Border-Town Rattled: 800+ Killed In Powerful Earthquake

Afghanistan Border-Town Rattled: 800+ Killed In Powerful Earthquake

A powerful 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck near the mountainous areas of the Afghan-Pakistan border overnight, resulting in the death of at least 800 people and 2,500 injuries. The death toll is expected to rise, The New York Times reported, citing local Afghan officials.

The epicenter of the quake was centered near the city of Jalalabad, home to 200,000 people. Most of the destruction was situated in the province of Kunar, north of Jalalabad, where landslides were reported and mud and brick houses were destroyed. 

Source: Wall Street Journal

Footage of the destruction:

Notable quake-disaster highlights from the Wall Street Journal:

Casualties and Injuries

  • More than 800 dead, with the toll expected to rise as many remain buried under debris.

  • Over 2,500 injured, according to Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid.

  • Many victims were women and children, asleep when the quake hit.

Rescue and Relief Challenges

  • Remote terrain and landslides have destroyed roads, slowing rescue operations. The 200-bed provincial hospital is overwhelmed, with the injured lying outside in open areas. 

Emergency Response

  • The Taliban government has deployed rescue teams and arranged special flights to transport casualties.

  • UN agencies and WHO are providing emergency aid.

  • Hundreds of Afghan youth are donating blood at Nangarhar Regional Hospital.

  • India and Pakistan expressed condolences and offered assistance.

  • Pakistan reported no casualties or major damage on its side of the border.

The quake comes as no surprise, given that Afghanistan sits on fault lines between the Arabian, Eurasian, and Indian plates.

In October 2023, two major quakes killed 2,400 people. The Taliban will be tested by their response effort, perhaps even putting those U.S. helicopters to good use.

. . .

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 09:45

U.S. Freezes Visas For Palestinian Passport Holders Amid Mounting National Security Threats 

U.S. Freezes Visas For Palestinian Passport Holders Amid Mounting National Security Threats 

Weeks after the Trump administration paused approvals of visitor visas for people of Gaza, the New York Times now reports that the administration has broadened the suspension to cover nearly all categories of visitor visas for Palestinian passport holders. 

NYT cited an August 18 State Department cable, sent to U.S. embassies and consulates abroad, detailing new sweeping measures that would bar many Palestinians from entering the U.S. on various types of non-immigrant visas. The cable was obtained by the media outlet and confirmed by four anonymous U.S. officials.

Impacted Palestinian visas include medical treatment, university studies, visits to friends or relatives, and business travel. 

U.S. consular officers have been instructed to invoke Section 221(g) of the Immigration Nationality Act (INA), a legal provision that allows them to refuse visa applications from Palestinian passport holders temporarily.

"Effective immediately, consular officers are instructed to refuse under 221(g) of the Immigration Nationality Act all otherwise eligible Palestinian Authority passport holders using that passport to apply for a non-immigrant visa," the State Department cable said.

NYT spoke with Kerry Doyle, the former lead attorney for Immigration and Customs Enforcement under the Biden-Harris regime, who said the Trump administration should be open about its decision-making:

"If it's a true ban, then it's concerning to me in that they should be transparent about it and then make their arguments for the basis of such a ban." 

Last month, the State Department halted visitor visas for the roughly two million Palestinians from Gaza. This came shortly after Laura Loomer called incoming flights a "national security threat ..." 

The national security threat Loomer could be describing appears to come from one of her X posts: "We have been totally infiltrated by Islamic jihadists. The Palestinian movement is a terrorist movement."

Perhaps the scrutiny is centered on the Samidoun Palestinian Prisoner Solidarity Network, or 'Samidoun,' a dark-money-funded non-profit that acts as an international fundraising arm for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) terrorist organization, which has been active in North America and linked to efforts ranging from disrupting critical infrastructure to organizing campus protests and riots

PFLP states in their manifesto about their weird obsession with Marxism and their dream of destroying capitalism across the West.

Late last month, Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) sounded the alarm about a separate rogue non-profit, Palestinian Youth Movement (PYM), a leftist activist group closely aligned with Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), accusing it of working across university campuses to incite anti-Israel protests and campus chaos.

"PYM's support of Hamas and ties to terror groups should prevent it from receiving tax-exempt donations. I'm asking the IRS to investigate and remedy this situation," Cotton wrote on X last month

We suspect that the Trump administration views the potential influx of Palestinians as a national security threat, given the Marxist revolutionary activities of Samidoun, the PFLP, and other affiliated groups already underway on the Homeland.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 08:35

Bitcoin No Longer Plays Gold's Game

Bitcoin No Longer Plays Gold's Game

Authored by Armando Aguilar via CoinTelegraph.com,

Bitcoin was treated as a purely inert asset for years: a decentralized vault, economically passive despite its fixed issuance schedule. Yet more than $7 billion worth of Bitcoin already earns native, onchain yield via major protocols — that premise is breaking down. 

Gold’s ~$23-trillion market cap mostly sits idle. Bitcoin, by contrast, now earns onchain, while holders keep custody.

As new layers unlock returns, Bitcoin crosses a structural threshold: from merely passive to productively scarce.

That change is quietly redefining how capital prices risk, how institutions allocate reserves and how portfolio theory accounts for safety. Scarcity may explain price stability. Still, productivity explains why miners, treasuries and funds are now parking assets in BTC rather than just building around it.

A vault asset that earns yield isn’t digital gold anymore — it’s productive capital.

Scarcity matters, but productivity rules

Bitcoin’s economic DNA hasn’t changed: The supply remains capped at 21 million, the issuance schedule is transparent, and no central authority can inflate or censor it. Scarcity, auditability and resistance to manipulation always set Bitcoin apart, but in 2025, these differentiating and unique factors started to mean something more.

As the issuance rate is locked, even as new protocol layers allow BTC to generate onchain returns, Bitcoin is now gaining traction for what it will enable. A new set of tools gives holders the ability to earn real yield without giving up custody, relying on centralized platforms and altering the base protocol. It leaves Bitcoin’s core mechanics untouched but changes how capital engages with the asset.

We’re already seeing that effect in practice. Bitcoin is the only crypto asset officially held in sovereign reserves: El Salvador continues to allocate BTC in its national treasury, and a 2025 US executive order recognized Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) now hold over 1.26 million BTC — more than 6% of the total supply. 

Also on the mining side, public miners are no longer rushing to sell. Instead, a growing share allocates BTC into staking and synthetic yield strategies to improve long-term returns.

It’s becoming evident that the original value proposition has evolved subtly in design but profoundly in effect. What once made Bitcoin trustworthy now also makes it powerful — a once passive asset is becoming a yield-producing asset. This lays the foundation for what comes next: a native yield curve that forms around Bitcoin itself, not to mention Bitcoin‑linked assets.

Bitcoin earns without giving up control

Until recently, the idea of earning a return on crypto seemed out of reach. In Bitcoin’s case, it was hard to find non-custodial yield, at least without compromising its base-layer neutrality. But that assumption no longer holds. Today, new protocol layers let holders put BTC to work in ways once limited to centralized platforms.

Some platforms let long-term holders stake native BTC to help secure the network while earning yield, without wrapping the asset or moving it across chains. In turn, others allow users to use their Bitcoin in decentralized finance apps, earning fees from swaps and lending without giving up ownership. And the catch is that none of these systems require handing over keys to a third party, and none rely on the kind of opaque yield games that caused problems in the past.

At this point, it’s clear that this is no longer pilot-scale. In addition, miner-aligned strategies are quietly gaining traction among firms looking to boost treasury efficiency without leaving the Bitcoin ecosystem. As a result, a yield curve native to Bitcoin and grounded in transparency is starting to take shape.

Once Bitcoin yield becomes accessible and self-custodied, another problem emerges: How do you measure it? If protocols are becoming available and accessible, then clarity is missing. Because without a standard to describe what productive BTC earns, investors, treasuries and miners are left making decisions in the dark.

Time to benchmark Bitcoin yield

If Bitcoin can earn a return, then the next logical step is a straightforward way to measure it.

Right now, there’s no standard. Some investors see BTC as hedge capital; others put it to work and collect yield. However, there are inconsistencies in what the actual benchmark to measure Bitcoin should be, as there are no real comparable assets. For example, a treasury team might lock coins for a week but doesn’t have a simple way to explain the risk, or a miner might route rewards into a yield strategy but still treat it as treasury diversification. 

Consider a mid-sized decentralized autonomous organization with 1,200 BTC and six months of payroll ahead. It puts half into a 30-day vault on a Bitcoin-secured protocol and earns yield. But without a baseline, the team can’t say whether that’s a cautious move or a risky one. The same choice might be praised as clever treasury work or criticized as yield-chasing, depending on who analyzes the approach.

What Bitcoin needs is a benchmark. Not a “risk‑free rate” in the bond market sense, but a baseline: repeatable, self-custodied and onchain yield that can be generated natively on Bitcoin, net of fees, grouped by term lengths — seven days, 30, 90. Just enough structure to turn yield from guesswork into something that can be referenced and used as a benchmark.

Once that exists, treasury policies, disclosures and strategies can be built around it, and everything above that baseline can be priced for what it is: risk worth taking or not.

That’s where the metaphor with gold breaks down. Gold doesn’t pay you — productive Bitcoin does. The longer treasuries treat BTC like a vault trinket with no return, the easier it is to see who’s managing capital — and who’s simply storing it.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 08:00

Opioids More Likely To Kill Than Car Crashes Or Suicide

Opioids More Likely To Kill Than Car Crashes Or Suicide

The National Safety Council reports that Americans are more likely to die from an opioid overdose than a car crash or suicide.

As Statista';s Katharina Buchholz shows in the following chart, the likelihood of dying from opioid use in the U.S. increased from lifetime odds of one in 96 in 2017 to one in 57 in 2023 (down from one in 55 in 2022).

The same year, someone living in the U.S. only had one in 87 odds of dying of suicide and a one in 95 chance of dying in a car crash.

 Opioids More Likely to Kill Than Car Crashes or Suicide | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Potent and deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl - which is often mixed with heroin without the knowledge of drug users - contributed to this dismal development together with the ongoing crisis of prescription pain killer misuse.

The U.S. experienced 105,000 overdose deaths in 2023, down from 2022 after a severe uptick during the coronavirus pandemic.

The most likely cause of death in the U.S. continues to be heart disease with lifetime odds of 1 in 6, followed by cancer and stroke.

Covid-19 lifetime odds were similar to those of stroke in previous years, but are no longer reported by the source.

Despite being a common fear, the chances of dying due to gun assault stand at only one in 238, but are still greater than drowning or choking to death, which have odds of around one in 1,000 and one in 2,500, respectively.

Dying in a dog attack remains highly unlikely with the chances of that happening at one in 44,499.

Dying in a hurricane or tornado or any other storm event is actually more likely at one in 39,192.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 07:20

Russia Gears Up For New Nuclear Missile Test

Russia Gears Up For New Nuclear Missile Test

Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,

  • Significant activity on Russia's Novaya Zemlya archipelago indicates an impending test of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, known as Skyfall by NATO.

  • The Burevestnik, a complex system designed to carry a nuclear warhead and evade missile defenses, has a history of development failures, including a deadly explosion in 2019.

  • The timing of the potential test, along with high-level Russian military and nuclear official visits, suggests the missile is nearing operational deployment, driven by Russia's desire for prestige and defense against US missile shields.

It's been a busy few weeks up on the windswept Russian archipelago of Novaya Zemlya: people, earthmoving trucks, shipping containers, temporary housing, heavy-lift aircraft, helicopters, cargo ships.

The activity shows up in satellite imagery, aircraft hazard notifications, ship transponder trackers, and open-source intelligence reporting at a time when long Arctic days and good weather mean favorable conditions for building projects at the Pankovo test range and nearby air base.

The betting money for close watchers of Russian weapons development is on another test of a trouble-plagued, nuclear-powered cruise missile called the Burevestnik.

"The operational sites for this system are almost complete. This is going to be an operational system pretty soon here," said Decker Eveleth, a researcher at the suburban Washington-based Center for Naval Analyses, who examined satellite imagery of the sites in July and August. "This may have been the final check before operational testing and evaluation."

"They're clearly pretty far long," he said.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the test has already happened," said Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based arms control researcher and expert on Russia's nuclear forces.

The missile, dubbed Skyfall by NATO, has been under development for more than a decade now. It's one of several new systems Russian designers have focused on as the Kremlin pours money into weapons development as part of a not fully recognized arms race -- mainly against the United States.

Others include the Sarmat international continental ballistic missile, a nuclear-powered, nuclear-tipped torpedo called Poseidon, and a hypersonic missile called Avangard.

Russian President Vladimir Putin talked up many of the weapons elaborate public ceremonies in 2018 and 2019. Two of the new weapons, the Kinzhal and Tsirkon missiles, have been used in Ukraine. The Sarmat has also been tested, though last year it suffered a major mishap.

The Burevestnik has drawn particular attention from arms control and intelligence experts, partly because of the technology but also its past failures.

The missile is powered essentially by a small nuclear reactor built into the engine, theoretically enabling it to stay aloft for days.

It "would carry a nuclear warhead; circle the globe at low altitude, avoid missile defenses, and dodge terrain; and drop the warhead at a difficult-to-predict location," according to a 2019 report by the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative.

U.S. intelligence reports say the missile has been tested at least a dozen times, including in 2017 and 2019.

Death At Nyonoksa

Among the places Russia has tested the Burevestnik is the White Sea, west of the city of Arkhangelsk, near the port of Severodvinsk.

In August 2019, while trying to raise a Burevestnik from the seabed near the town of Nyonoksa, an explosion occurred that spewed radiation over a wide area, including Severodvinsk. The blast also killed at least five Russian nuclear specialists from the state-owned nuclear company Rosatom, which is believed to have spearheaded the Burevestnik's development.

The explosion, US officials later concluded, "was the result of a nuclear reaction that occurred during the recovery of a Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile."

Two years earlier, another missile, also believed to be a Burevestnik, crashed somewhere in the Barents Sea, west of Novaya Zemlya, according to US intelligence officials.

"They've been developing this system for well over a decade. And it hasn't really gone very well for a long time," Eveleth said. "People died…and they didn't give up. They kept going for it…. They kept going for it for 15 years. And they are really dedicated to it."

Constant Phoenix, Nuke Sniffing

The activity at Pankovo in late July was highlighted in part by Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis of Middlebury's Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. Burevestnik testing was moved out of the White Sea following the Nyonoksa accident and resumed in 2021 on Novaya Zemlya, which is more remote.

In early August, Russian authorities also released a NOTAM, according to the Barents Observer newspaper, which first reported the advisory. NOTAMs are internally recognized advisories for aircraft -- a warning for pilots and ship captains, in this case, to avoid a wide area west of Novaya Zemlya.

Meanwhile, an unusually large number of fighter jets, cargo jets, and helicopters appeared parked at the Rogachevo air base on the southwestern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The aircraft appeared to include an A-50, an airborne radar and warning system experts say is rarely seen so far north; and Il-76 SKIPs, jets designed to gather electronic signals and missile telemetry data.

Open-source aircraft trackers also noted a US Air Force WC-135 jet in the airspace north of the Kola Peninsula and west of Novaya Zemlya. Known as Constant Phoenix, the jet is designed to gather samples of airborne particles to detect specific radioactive isotopes released from nuclear weapons tests.

The most recent satellite imagery, Eveleth said, suggests Russian workers have now packed up equipment on Novaya Zemlya, indicating, he said, that a test had been conducted.

'Why Is This Such a Big Deal?'

The timing for a test was also auspicious from the point of view of Russian messaging, Lewis said in a podcast released August 20, coming around the time that Putin met US President Donald Trump for a summit in Alaska.

Another bit of evidence came on August 22 when Putin traveled to the central city of Sarov. Formerly a closed city known as Arzamas-16, Sarov has for decades been the heart of the Soviet and Russian nuclear programs: "the equivalent of Los Alamos," Podvig said, referring to the home of the US atomic weapons program.

Among the dignitaries greeting Putin on the tarmac at Sarov was the chairman of Russia's General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, as well as Sergei Kiriyenko, who headed Rosatom until 2016, when he took a top post in the Kremlin.

"The combination of all these things -- the test activity, the apparent preparation for deployment, and this visit -- again this would be a good occasion for Putin, for the Sarov [engineers] to demonstrate that this is what we've done, we've fulfilled the assignment," Podvig said.

"Why is this such a big deal for them?" Eveleth said. "First, the sophistication and prestige of the Russian nuclear arsenal is very important" to Putin and his government.

"Second, they're worried about [US] missile defenses, they want to hedge against an effective missile shield and this system is technically capable of evading certain systems," he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 06:40

These Are The Countries With The Largest Christian Populations

These Are The Countries With The Largest Christian Populations

There are 2.2 billion Christians in the world, which means one out of every four people is a Christian.

The visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, compares the 25 countries with the largest Christian populations, revealing how demographic trends, migration, and conversion have shaped Christianity’s current global footprint.

The data for this ranking comes from the CIA World FactbookPew Research and UN World Population Prospects.

Estimated religious shares between 2020–2024 from the first two sources are applied to 2025 population figures to arrive at an estimated for number of Christians in each country.

The Americas Are Christianity Central

With more than 219 million Christians, the U.S. remains the single largest Christian nation.

Although its Christian share has fallen for decades, the overall population continues to grow, keeping the country firmly at the top of the list.

Note: Includes all denominations.

Brazil (169 million) and Mexico (118 million) rank second and third.

Both countries have historically been Catholic strongholds, though Brazil has witnessed a rapid rise in evangelical denominations over the past generation.

Together, the three giants account for nearly a quarter of all Christians worldwide.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s is Reshaping the Christian Faith

Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, and Kenya illustrate Christianity’s fast-growing presence south of the Sahara.

Nigeria alone has about 109 million Christians, almost equal to the entire population of the Philippines.

High fertility rates and youthful demographics mean Africa’s share of global Christians will keep rising well past 2050.

Most of these African nations also have large non-Christian populations.

Nigeria is almost evenly split between Christians and Muslims, while Ethiopia’s Christian majority coexists with a sizable Muslim minority.

Minority Christian Communities in Population Giants

China and India appear in the ranking despite Christians making up only 5% and 2% of their populations, respectively.

Sheer population size—over 1.4 billion people each—translates into tens of millions of believers even when Christianity is a small minority.

The presence of 72 million Chinese and 34 million Indian Christians underscores how religious minorities can still represent significant global communities.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: Countries With the Largest Muslim Populations on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 06:00

Conservatives Rage After UK Court Of Appeal Rules With Govt To Keep Migrant Hotel Open

Conservatives Rage After UK Court Of Appeal Rules With Govt To Keep Migrant Hotel Open

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The British government has won its legal fight against a local council that sought to shut down a migrant hotel in Essex.

The Court of Appeal ruled on Friday that a temporary injunction obtained by Epping Forest District Council against the continued use of the Bell Hotel to house asylum seekers should be overturned.

During the hearing, Home Office lawyers argued that the human rights of asylum seekers outweighed the council’s decision to close the hotel. The council had insisted that Somani Hotels, which owns the Bell Hotel, was in breach of planning law by changing its use to accommodate migrants. But the judges found that the lower court, which granted the injunction, had made errors that “undermine his decision.”

The ruling lifts the interim injunction and scraps a Sept. 12 deadline for asylum seekers to be relocated. A final appeal hearing will take place later this year.

The hotel has been at the center of controversy in recent months after anti-immigration protests erupted in the town, following the arrest of one of its occupants on suspicion of sexually assaulting a 14-year-old schoolgirl.

The Court of Appeal’s decision has sparked anger among opposition lawmakers, who accused Labour of prioritizing the rights of illegal immigrants over the safety of local communities.

Robert Jenrick, the Conservatives’ shadow justice secretary, posted: “Starmer’s government has shown itself to be on the side of illegal migrants who have broken into our country.”

Rupert Lowe, an MP and leader of Restore Britain, wrote: “A Government against its own people. No more appeals, court cases, or debates. We must deport the illegal migrants. Not some of them. Not most of them. All of them.” He later called for the Home Office to be abolished.

Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, said the ruling was a setback but vowed to keep fighting: “Local communities should not pay the price for Labour’s total failure on illegal immigration. This ruling is a setback, but it is not the end. I say to Conservative councils seeking similar injunctions against asylum hotels – keep going! Every case has different circumstances, and I know good Conservative councils will keep fighting for residents, so we will keep working with them every step of the way.”

Ben Habib, leader of Advance UK, echoed the anger: “He says he wants to shut illegal migrant hotels, but Keir Starmer fights tooth and nail to keep them open. Against the wishes of local residents and the local authority, the Epping hotel will now stay open. So much for democracy and the security of British citizens.”

Kelvin MacKenzie, former editor of The Sun, went further, alleging judicial bias: “No surprise Lord Justice Bean, a Labour Party member for 28 years, has in his Appeal Court judgment, stopped the 128 migrants being kicked out of the Bell Hotel in Epping. The law and Labour are in lockstep. A migrant has more rights than a British citizen. A serious moment.”

A full trial to determine the future of the hotel will take place in October.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 05:20

How The European Central Bank Engineered The French Debt-Crisis... And The Next

How The European Central Bank Engineered The French Debt-Crisis... And The Next

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The French debt crisis reminds us that gradualism never works, that statism always ends in ruin and that those countries that bet on more government and higher taxes always end in stagnation, risk of default and social unrest.

France’s government debt-to-GDP exceeds 114%. However, unfunded committed pension liabilities reach 400% of GDP, according to Eurostat. The fiscal deficit announced for this year is 5.4%, but market consensus maintains an expectation of 5.8%. The five-year credit default risk has risen by 20% in twelve months. The yield on French two-year debt exceeds that of Spain, Italy, and Greece, and its risk premium to Germany has reached 80 basis points—20 above that of Spain.

The problem in the euro area is that all the mainstream claps when a government inflates GDP with massive government spending and public sector jobs as well as immigration, disguising persistent fiscal imbalances and declining productivity growth. Furthermore, Keynesian analysts ignore the crowding out of the private sector and the harmful impact of high taxes on long-term public accounts’ sustainability.

I am old enough to remember when the mainstream media hailed Greece as the engine of growth in the eurozone when it was bloating GDP with massive government spending and public sector jobs. Greece was hailed as “safeguarding high economic growth” and “leading the euro area recovery” in 2005 and 2006 by the IMF and the European Commission publications. Headlines and policy reports widely acknowledged Greece’s economic achievements as an example of strong leadership within the euro area. We all know what happened in 2008.

We cannot forget that the European Central Bank has been instrumental in creating the perverse incentives for politicians to maintain and increase elevated spending and fiscal imbalances.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has, over the past decade, deployed a policy toolkit of unprecedented scale—including repeated rate cuts, negative nominal rates, the controversial anti-fragmentation tool, and de facto debt monetisation—designed to safeguard the eurozone’s stability. Yet, for all the rhetoric of stability and independence, these measures have created powerful incentives for fiscal recklessness, eroding the very foundations of European monetary credibility and planting the seeds of today’s sovereign debt crises, including the current French debt debacle.

ECB policy rates, once anchored to discipline both sovereign and private borrowing, have plummeted from above 4% in 2008 to negative territory and have remained in negative real territory for years. Furthermore, the ECB’s asset purchase programmes, expanded during crises under initiatives like the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), have saturated bond markets with central bank money and generated an enormous crowding-out effect that penalises credit to families and businesses and disguises solvency issues of public sector issuers.

The anti-fragmentation tool, designed to contain the “spread” between the core and periphery country bonds, takes this issue further: by promising open-ended intervention, the ECB reassures markets that it will backstop sovereign debt at virtually any price, diluting the discipline that risk premia once imposed on profligate governments. In fact, it could be considered a pro-squandering tool, as it benefits those countries with poor fiscal compliance and penalises those who reign in debt and deficits.

While these interventions immediately calm markets, they foster a mindset of indifference in governments, leading them to consistently increase their spending. Thus, many governments, like Spain’s, brag about the low interest rates and spread of their debt despite rising imbalances and worsening public accounts. The anti-fragmentation tool and negative nominal rates destroy the market mechanism that should serve as an essential warning for reckless fiscal policy. Member states, assured of cheap funding and endless ECB support, have little incentive to reform bloated budgets or contain deficits, especially when electorally costly. The persistent threat warned by German policymakers, that ECB actions are subsidising “fiscal freeloading” in high-debt member states, is becoming a reality.

The most dramatic case is France. The French government’s debt has soared above 114% of GDP in 2025, driven in part by persistent large deficits covered cheaply under the ECB’s umbrella. Attempts at fiscal consolidation have always been timid and thus have failed to achieve lasting discipline, with ECB support always in the background as a failsafe. The result is a mounting sovereign risk premium: French bonds, for the first time in modern euro history, now yield more than comparably rated Spanish, Greek, or Italian bonds, signalling the market’s discomfort with France’s debt trajectory even in the age of ECB backstops. The fact that this rise in spreads happens in the middle of a large stimulus plan (Next Generation EU) and rate cuts is even more alarming.

The so-called anti-fragmentation instrument, meant as a crisis containment tool, is inherently a mechanism of “joint liability without joint control”. It binds prudent euro members to the fiscal choices of their less disciplined partners, socialising risk but nationalising rewards. With this facility, markets can no longer efficiently discriminate; anxiety about debt sustainability that once spurred necessary reforms is suppressed rather than solved. Furthermore, it is like debt mutualisation with no real obligations.

The “whatever it takes” philosophy, so lauded by ECB leaders, is now a double-edged sword: it has replaced accountability with dependency and emboldened fiscal laxity.

Central bank purchases and the suppression of yields to nominal negative territory are, by definition, the worst case of debt monetisation. The ECB is a loss-making entity because it purchases bonds even when they are exceedingly expensive. The ECB’s accumulated unrealised paper losses on its asset purchase programmes are estimated at €800 billion, vastly exceeding its capital, according to IERF.

These policies are disguising solvency problems even if dressed in the language of emergency support. This removes the ultimate deterrent to government overspending: the cost of money itself. The long-term result is an environment in which euro area governments, aware that refinancing is guaranteed at low cost even during difficult times, accumulate increasingly larger debts—making the bloc vulnerable to even minor shocks in confidence, inflation, or governance. This situation could likely harm the euro in the future if Germany falls into the same trap as France, a scenario that seems probable given the latest policy announcements.

If you read newspapers in France, this perverse incentive is very evident. Instead of talking about the unsustainable spending path, many demand more central bank purchases and stimulus. Furthermore, some demand the acceleration of the digital euro to implement even more aggressive monetary measures.

The unfolding French debt crisis is a direct byproduct of these policies. France’s spending has persistently outstripped growth, yet the promise of perennial ECB support delayed any reckoning. Now, as risk premia rise and markets test the ECB’s resolve, the eurozone faces the bitter consequences of a policy era marked by moral hazard and eroded fiscal discipline.

While ECB activism may buy temporary stability, its long-term cost is clear: higher debts, private sector weakening, currency debasement, and the erosion of incentives for responsible policymaking. Unless Europe rethinks its reliance on central bank eternal stimuli and restores mechanisms for market discipline, today’s French crisis may be only one of many fiscal storms ahead. The success of the euro as a reserve currency was based on the pillar of fiscal prudence and responsibility. Lack of fiscal discipline always means a risk for the currency.

Central banks cannot print solvency, and the lack of structural reforms and excessive easing policies can end up destroying the euro.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 04:40

Hungary Unleashes Major Drug-Prevention Task-Force To Safeguard 'The Fabric Of Society'

Hungary Unleashes Major Drug-Prevention Task-Force To Safeguard 'The Fabric Of Society'

Via Remix News,

Major General Sándor Töreki, Hungary’s deputy chief of police for criminal matters, has revealed that the Delta action program launched this year has led to a large-scale, offensive professional action to detect drug-related crimes, reports Mandiner. He highlighted that thousands of procedures have been initiated, significant quantities of drugs have been seized, and significant financial assets and assets have been seized from the perpetrators of the crimes. 

The program has been running for six months, and according to Sándor Töreki, professional evaluations are currently underway, and the results will be presented in the near future. 

Prevention, noted the general, is also playing an important role, for which a professional program has been developed. 

“Not only does the school year start on September 1st, but so does drug prevention.”

At a drug prevention press conference this morning, he noted how drug use and drug distribution destroy the fabric of society, that drugs tear apart human communities, and destroy the security of society as a whole. 

Mass consumption of designer drugs has appeared in medium-sized and small settlements across Hungary.

According to the general, the police want to be the driving force behind drug prevention activities. The program will also call upon civilians, as they also need to carry out drug prevention in schools. So far, 3,049 police officers are participating in the REDP program, which school guards are also joining.

With more than 200 million forints available for prevention, Sándor Töreki said that the target audience of the program is students, teachers and parents. They will participate in professional workshops, where the harmful effects of drug use will be presented. Any work done in educational institutions will be constantly monitored and measured via questionnaires. 

There will also be joint programs with prisons, and authorities are continuously investigating what drug prevention programs exist in neighboring countries to learn from them as well. 

According to László Horváth, the government commissioner responsible for the eradication of drug trafficking, strict action is essential, and strict legislation is needed. The goal is to “protect children and ensure their development,” he said. 

According to the politician, drugs now pose a direct threat to all youth, and dealers have also targeted areas around schools. He said that the domestic drug situation has changed recently and a new program is needed, as he highlighted: “The key is to act quickly.” 

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/01/2025 - 04:00

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