"Bloodbath": Panic Ensues After Trump Admin Takes Wrecking Ball To DOJ's Woke Civil Rights Division

Harmeet Dhillon - Trump's hand-picked choice to lead the DOJ's Civil Rights Division, has been taking a wrecking ball to the woke government entity - forcing out 'a majority of career managers and implementing new priorities' that have radically altered its mandate, NBC News' swamp scribe Ken Dilanian reports.

Harmeet Dhillon

"It’s been a complete bloodbath," one senior DOJ lawyer told Dilanian. Other sources said that over a dozen senior lawyers - "many with decades of experience working under presidents of both parties," have been reassigned, while others have resigned in frustration after they were shuffled around.

Dhillon kicked the hornet's nest last week - issuing a series of memos outlining the shifting priorities, which include (gasp!) "Keeping Men out of Women's Sports," and "Ending Radical Indoctrination in K-12 Schooling."

"This is a 180 shift from the division’s traditional mission," one former senior official said - declining to be named "in fear of retaliation."

"These documents appear to have been created in a vacuum completely divorced from reality," the former official continued. "The division can only enforce statutes that have been passed by Congress, and these orders seem to contemplate division attorneys’ executing on work that fundamentally departs from the division’s long-standing mission."

Translation:

Dhillon, meanwhile, said the changes were no different than what happens anytime there's a change in administration, along with a quest for efficiency.

"Each new administration has its own priorities, and allocates resources accordingly," said Dhillon. "The Trump administration is no different. When I assumed my duties as Assistant Attorney General, I learned that certain sections in Civil Rights had substantial existing caseloads and backlogs, and that formed the basis of temporary details to assist those sections in getting, and staying, caught up."

10 'current and former officials' in the Civil Rights Division told NBC News that several division chiefs have been transferred to roles unrelated to their legal backgrounds, including handling complaints, as well as the office that handles public requests (lol). So, customer service.

"Every presidential administration has its own policy priorities," said former employee Stacey Young, who spent 18 years in the division before resigning in January, "but I don’t think there’s any precedent for an administration almost completely refocusing the civil rights division’s enforcement priorities the way this one has."

So sad.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 19:15

David Stockman On Why And How To Fire 42,000 IRS Agents...

Authored by David Stockman via InternationalMan.com,

The true scandal of current American fiscal governance needs be commented on. Or, better still, hammered upon good and hard.

To wit, the American electorate apparently doesn’t give a shit about runaway government spending because as a practical matter the overwhelming share of voters don’t pay the taxes to fund it. Aside from social insurance taxes, which most payroll taxpayers still believe to be a premium for a government-sponsored retirement annuity, the bottom 90% of households fund only a tiny fraction of Federal spending.

That’s right. The bottom 145 million US income tax filers (out of 161 million total filers) currently pay just $500 billion in Federal income taxes. That’s barely $3,500 per return and even then approximately 50 million of these returns owe zero taxes or actually get tax credit refunds for taxes they haven’t paid!

In the grand scheme of things, therefore, direct tax payments by the bottom 90% of income tax filers amounted to only 12% of Federal spending in FY 2024 outside of social insurance trust funds. To wit, Federal spending ex-social insurance was $4.82 trillion in FY 2024 and upwards of $4.3 trillion of this was paid for by the top 10% of income tax payers, corporations, minor excise and import duty payers and borrowing—of which there was $1.8 trillion of the latter in FY 2024.

Needless to say, the top 10% got soaked good and hard, paying $1.538 trillion of Federal income taxes and as a practical matter nearly the entirety of the $530 billion corporate income tax, which in today’s globally competitive world gets mainly pushed back to shareholders. In effect, $2.1 trillion or 43% of Federal spending outside of social insurance is paid for by the top 10%.

Needless to say, that’s just plain unfair and economically counter-productive, too. The current marginal rate for top bracket taxpayers is 40.8% when you include the Medicare surcharge and the so-called NIIT  (net investment income tax). That’s already extortionate because in a free society there is no way that the government should grab 40% of anyone’s income—especially since that’s only the Federal take, which can easily grow to 50% after state and local income and property taxes.

Moreover, when the TCJA act of 2017 expires at year-end 2025, the top marginal rate will jump to truly confiscatory rate of 43.4%, and well beyond 50% in most states after state and local levies are layered on.

In short, America desperately needs to raise more revenues to fund even a downsized government after the DOGE treatment. But the income tax is more than tapped out, and 90% of the public is getting a hall pass on the latter.

Accordingly, what needs to happen is a sweeping reform, which would shift the Federal revenue base overwhelmingly to consumption and sales tax levies. That would ensure that the economic damage is limited and that 100% of the voting public would have skin in the game and feel the pain of spending via commensurate tax extractions. Then they might well demand fiscal sanity from their elected representatives in a manner that rarely occurs under the current defective fiscal regime.

We will elaborate more on the needed sweeping tax base reform in Part 2, but suffice it here to say that not only is the current Federal income tax grossly unfair to the productive classes and tapped out as a practical matter of revenue generation, but it is also unadministratable. Accordingly, more than half of the massive 100,000 man IRS bureaucracy could be eliminated even without a sales/consumption tax replacement, while upwards of 90% could be eliminated if the income tax were mainly substituted by a sales tax.

Needless to say, we are not talking about just bureaucratic nannies and meddlers in the case of the current 83,000 IRS employees—-a figure which is heading for 102,000 by the end of the decade under the still unrepealed Biden revenue grab. In the ranks of what amounts to a small city’s worth of Federal bureaucrats are also a goodly phalanx of tax cops, gumshoes, enforcement lawyers and tax filing proctologists.

So the question recurs: What has generated this massive bureaucracy in the first place, and what fundamental policy shifts are needed to cut the IRS headcount by 50% (42,00 jobs) and upwards of $5 billion of compensation and other operating costs?

The answer starts with calling the IRS’ bluff.  When you look at the actual tax filing data it is damn evident that the Deep State bureaucrats are faking mightily when it comes to their massive staffing demands. We discovered the scam way back in our OMB days while jousting with the Treasury Department over the sacred cows in its budget. But nothing is different 40-years later—so here’s the smoking gun that points the way.

In the most recent complete tax-year (2022) there were 161.336 million individual income tax returns filed, which reported $14.83 trillion of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI). But fully 146.045 million of those filings, which reported $10.025 trillion in AGI, did not claim any itemized deductions.

Moreover, among these non-itemizers about 97 million owed taxes and used the standard deduction to calculate taxable income and the amount owed before tax credits. And another 49 million standard deduction users owed no Federal income taxes at all due to low taxable income or child and other tax credits.

In short, you absolutely do not need a giant IRS bureaucracy—and, indeed, hardly any labor-intensive operation at all—to administer the IRS code in the case of 92% of annual tax filings and the overwhelming share of US income taxpayers. That’s because virtually all the relevant data for completion of these non-itemized filings is machine readable and available on other IRS reporting systems, as shown below.

For want of doubt, here is the entirety of the tax computation for a couple earning wages at the US median income of $80,000, using the $13,850 standard deduction for a joint return and claiming two $2,000 child tax credits. The fact is, with today’s technology 99.999% of the work of processing, examining and adjusting (if necessary) non-itemized tax returns of this type should be accomplishable by IRS computers, with nary a bureaucrat’s finger-prints evident in the whole shebang.

That’s especially the case because the overwhelming share of the $10 trillion of AGI among non-itemizers is for wages and salaries reported to the IRS on W-2s; and, also, for interest, dividends, rents, royalties, independent contractor earnings, stock sales, pensions, annuities, IRAs and taxable Social Security earnings—all of which are also reported by the payers of these amounts on Form 1099s.

In the illustration below, any alert machine—to say nothing of an AI-enabled one rigged-up by Elon & Co.—could cross check the W-2s, calculate the taxable income, apply the three relevant tax brackets, deduct the $4,000 of child credits, verify the tax liability of $6,243 and subtract the taxpayer’s withholding amounts to determine whether a payment or refund was required.

All in literally a nanosecond. Presto!

Step-by-Step Calculation of $80,000 Wage-Earning Couple With 2 Kids And The Standard Deduction

1. Gross Income: $80,000
2. Standard Deduction: $13,850 (for married filing jointly in 2023)
3. Taxable Income: $80,000 – $13,850 = $66,150

Tax Liability Calculation

1. Taxable Income: $66,150
2. Tax Rates:
   • 10% on income up to $22,000
   • 12% on income from $22,001 to $38,600
   • 22% on income from $38,601 to $66,150

Tax Calculation

• 10% on the first $22,000: $22,000 * 0.10 = $2,200
• 12% on the next $16,600: $16,600 * 0.12 = $1,992
• 22% on the remaining $27,550: $27,550 * 0.22 = $6,051

Total Tax Before Credits: $2,200 + $1,992 + $6,051 = $10,243 Child Tax Credits

• 2 Child Tax Credits: $2,000 per child
• Total Credits: 2 * $2,000 = $4,000

Tax Liability After Credits: $10,243 – $4,000 = $6,243

So how in the world can they justify 83,000 bureaucrats and a budget of $16.1 billion when the overwhelming share of returns involve what can be aptly described as “machine work 101”?

The answer, purportedly, lies in the balance of filings—the 15.29 million itemized returns. But even here the overwhelming bulk of the relevant income items and deductible expense items are not so complex or opaque at all. Indeed, they too are available on other IRS reporting systems and are machine readable at the individual taxpayer ID level.

Specifically, in 2022 the amount of AGI reported on these itemized returns was $4.809 trillion or about 32% of total AGI. But within this total there was included the following amounts which are all machine readable from W-2s and 1099s:

• Wages and salaries: $2,345 billion.
• Taxable interest: $78 billion.
•  Taxable dividends: $230 billion.
• IRAs: $110 billion.
• Pensions and annuities: $176 billion.
• Taxable Social Security $82 billion.
• Unemployment benefits: $3 billion.
• Subtotal: $3.024 trillion.
• Above Income As % of AGI on Itemized Returns: 63%.

When it comes to verification on a machine-readable basis, the above income items are all check, check and check. This means that when you combine the above machine-readable AGI amounts from itemized returns with the $10.025 trillion reported on non-itemized returns, it works out to 88% or $13.049 trillion of the $14.834 trillion of total AGI reported for 2022.

None of this AGI should require any significant labor-intensive administration, examination, adjustment or enforcement. The IRS computers should be aware of every dime of AGI from the above categories and whether it was filed accurately by the taxpayer or in need of the proverbial IRS-ordered “adjustment”.

So it is hard to figure out why on the AGI/income side of the equation there is a need for anything remotely like the headcount and budget magnitudes shown below. For instance, the 22,000 headcounts in “enforcement” and “compliance” should be as idle as the proverbial Maytag repairman when it comes to standard deduction returns and the machine-readable sources of income filed on itemized returns. In these instances, there is nothing material for taxpayers to cheat on that wouldn’t be flagged by a properly programmed computer instantly upon filing.

And the same is true in the case of the 33,000 headcounts in “taxpayer services”, “operations support” and “administrative support”. Virtually none of these bureaucrats are needed to process the $10 trillion of AGI on the 146 million non-itemized returns and the $3 trillion of AGI on 15 million itemized returns that is already reported independently by the underlying payers of these income sources.

To the contrary, that’s work for 24/7 machines, not 6.5 hours per day (after civil service required breaks and lunch) government bureaucrats who get 35 vacation, personal leave and sick days per year, on average. And a high share of whom in the post-pandemic era don’t deign to come into the office even on workdays, anyway!

Breakdown of IRS Budget and Headcounts By Function:

 

For want of doubt, here are the other arguably more complicated categories of AGI reported on itemized returns. But even in these cases, there is plenty of work for the machines to do with respect to examination and verification. For instance, $845 billion or nearly half of the total below is owing to capital gains. But that source of income is already reported by issuers on Form 8940 and Schedule D of 1040s. So Elon’s machines should be on top of that, as well.

At the end of the day, most of the complexity and opacity of the IRS code relates to the $106 billion of net profits reported for business and professional income and the $704 billion reported by sub-chapter S corporations. Here the complexity arises not just from gross income reporting, but more especially from the timing and amounts of allowable business expenses incurred in getting to the net profits figures shown below.

Still, the total amount of AGI involved in these two sources at $950 billion is just 6.5% of total AGI. Even if returns with heavy sub-chapter S or professional and business earnings involve a lot of digging, checking, reconciling and verifying by humans, it is hardly likely to be anything close to 83,000 bureaucrat’ worth.

So, yes, there may well be 2,650 pages of IRS code and another 9,000 pages of IRS regulations, and the whole thing may have 25 times more words than the Lord of the Rings trilogy. But when it comes to the overwhelming bulk of income tax filings and the AGI reported on them, 98% of this legal labyrinth is largely irrelevant. It’s unfortunate existence is merely cited as a smokescreen to justify a massive, unnecessary tax collection bureaucracy.

Other Sources of Income Reported on Itemized Returns in 2022

• Business and professional profits: $106 billion.
• S-corporation net income: $704 billion.
• Capital Gains: $845 billion.
• Property sales: $26 billion.
• Rents and royalties: $20 billion.
• Estate and trust income: $29 billion.
• Gambling income: $29 billion.
• Other, net: $5 billion.
• Total of above: $1.785 trillion.

Nor does the itemized deduction side of the ledger change the picture. Upwards of 91% of itemized deductions, which amounted to $669 billion in 2022, were accounted for by the first five line-items shown below. These are largely machine readable based on standard reporting forms that originators of these deductions are required to file with the IRS.

For instance, mortgage interest deductions are reported on Form 1098; charitable contributions are reported in Form 990 and deductions for state and local taxes paid are available from IRS information sharing reports by the states. Yet in 2022 these three deductions alone amounted to nearly $500 billion or 75% of the total.

Major machine-readable itemized deductions in 2022:

• Medical deductions after floor: $93 billion (gross deductions of $121 billion less $28 billion floor effect).
• Taxes paid deduction: $125 billion.
• Mortgage interest deduction: $147 billion.
• Investment interest deduction: $23 billion.
• Charitable contributions deduction: $222 billion.
• All other itemized deductions: $59 billion.
• Total Itemized Deductions: $669 billion.

In short, upwards of 90% of the AGI reported in 2022 for all returns was machine readable from independent reporting sources and more than 90% of itemized deductions were also machine readable. Accordingly, the preponderant share of income and deduction data coursing through 161 million annual income tax filings is essentially riding in a self-driving vehicle. The work of processing, assessing, validating and adjusting it, where necessary, does not likely require more staff than the current headcount of the Capitol Hill Police (2,400).

Moreover, even a few small intelligent changes in the IRS code would narrow even further the number of returns and amounts of AGI that need labor-intensive review and verification. For instance, among the 15.29 million itemized returns filed in 2022, the overwhelming share were at the lower and moderate ends of the income scale where disputed deduction amounts are inherently limited.

2022 Distribution Of Itemized Deduction Returns By AGI Level:

• $100,000 and under: 5.755 million (37.6%).
• $100,000 to $500,000: 8.076 million (52.8%).
• $500,000 to $1,000,000: 0.903 million (5.9%).
• $1,000,000 and over: 0.558 million (3.7%).
• Total Itemized Returns: 15.292 million (100%).

As indicated above, 13.831 million of itemized returns, or more than 90%, reported AGI of $500,000 or lower–including 5.8 million at $100,000 or lower.

In turn, these $500,000 and under filings reported an aggregate of $1.960 trillion of AGI and $475 billion of itemized deductions. So a “variable standard deduction” allowance of roughly this ratio—24% of AGI— for currently itemized returns up to $500,000 would be revenue neutral. But by eliminating upwards of 90% of itemized deduction filings, an income based “variable standard deduction” would also surely reduce the need for several thousands of examiners, service personnel and overhead managers, as well.

After all, there are only 1.461 million returns with AGI of $500,000 or higher, which reported the amounts shown below for 2022. We absolutely do not believe, for instance, that you need a bureaucracy of 83,000 to examine $213 billion of itemized deduction taken by the wealthy, when $126 billion of these were owing to charitable contributions and $41 billion to investment interest deductions.  That’s nearly 80% of the total deductions taken by the wealthy, yet every dollar of this is machine readable and verifiable because it is reported independently to the IRS by the charitable institution recipients and interest-receiving banks, respectively.

Likewise, 71% of the $2.78 trillion of AGI is due to W-2 salaries ($931 billion), investment interest ($62 billion), ordinary dividends ($170 billion), capital gains ($774 billion) and rents and royalties ($40 billion). As indicated previously, all of these items are also reported to the IRS separately and are machine readable by its computers at the taxpayer ID level.

So even in the insane nest of complexity which is the US tax code as it applies to the wealthy, the case just isn’t there to justify the egregiously padded payrolls at the IRS. Not even remotely—and that’s before taking a legislative scalpel to the tax code with the aim of drastically broadening the base and flattening the rates.

Key Tax Data for The 1.461 Million Filings with AGI of $500,000 or Higher:

• Total AGI: $2,780 billion.
• Itemized Deductions: $213 billion.
• Other Adjustments: $86 billion.
• Taxable Income: $2.481 billion.
• Taxes Paid: $708 billion.
• Itemized Deductions as % of AGI: 7.6%.
• Taxes Paid As % of Taxable Income: 28.5%.

So can the DOGE find a way to cut the IRS staff by upwards of 50% and 42,000 bureaucrats at a budget savings of $5 billion per year? We’d say, yes, just dig into the rich drove of data in the IRS Data Book for recent tax years and the degree of the current scam will become more than evident.

In that context, DOGE might well consider a technologically modern version of the old postcard-based approach to simplification of the Federal income tax. Thus, there is no reason why upwards of 150 million filers with AGIs under $500,000 could not simply receive an “E-Card” from the IRS at their personal email address in which the IRS machines have already done all the work. The E-Card would:

• Calculate and sum all sources of AGI.
• Apply the standard deduction and child credits.
• Compute the tax liability owed.
• Calculate the amount of either payment or refund due after crediting taxpayer withholdings.
• Provide an option to “accept” the E-Card outcome or elect to file different amounts in the regular way.

Again, based on the IRS filing data it is likely that at least 90% of E-Card recipients would check the “accept” box and be done with tax time, with no expense on their end and no IRS bureaucrats on the other end.

Our confidence in the conclusion is based on these considerations from the 2022 IRS data. Only 4.7% of the 120 million returns with AGI under $100,000 claimed itemized deductions and the amount of AGI on these returns was just 7% of AGI on all returns under $100,000.

Summary of Filings with AGI of $100,000 or Under:

• Returns With No Taxes owed: 47.048 million returns with $922 billion of AGI.
• Standard Deduction Returns: 66.865 million returns and $3.424 trillion of AGI.
• Itemized Deduction Filers: 5.755 million returns with $345 billion of AGI:

Likewise, 1.88 million or 22% of filings in the $100,000 to $500,000 range used itemization, but it is likely that the aforementioned variable standard deduction approach would limit the number of itemizers very sharply.

Finally, even without sweeping tax reform and the substitution of tariff and consumption taxes for the income tax, as has been vaguely proposed by President Trump, a huge share of the $550 billion that taxpayers now absorb to figure and file their taxes and contest with the IRS bureaucracy could be readily and substantially reduced.

Of course, the prospect of 42,000 IRS agents and hundreds of billions of filing and record keeping expenses should be more than welcome.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 18:40

'They Lied To A Whole Generation of Kids'

“We’ve got $1.7 trillion in student debt on the books and we’ve got 7.6 million open jobs right now - most of which don’t require a 4-year degree,” says a frustrated Mike Rowe in his ubiquitously velvetty tones.

“And we’ve got 6.8 million able-bodied men who are not only out of the workforce, they’re not looking.” 

It's generational, Rowe tells Theo Von. It's not about the pay, he adds, noting that there's no enthusiam for the work:

“We took shop class out of high school, we robbed kids of the opportunity to see what that kind of work even looks like.” 

“Meanwhile," Rowe continues:

"we told a whole generation of kids they were f**king screwed if they didn’t get a 4-year degree.”

“How did college get so expensive?"

"Nothing has gotten more expensive in the last 40 years than a 4-year degree. Not real estate, not healthcare, not energy, nothing.”

“We keep telling kids they’re screwed if they don’t go in this direction. We free up endless money to loan them.” 

But the solution is not simple:

“Something beyond the tariffs, something beyond policy is gonna have to happen to make 22-year old go, yeah, I would consider” learning a trade.

Watch the full clip below:

Mike Rowe: “We’ve got $1.7 trillion in student debt on the books and we’ve got 7.6 million open jobs right now—most of which don’t require a 4-year degree.”

“And we’ve got 6.8 million able-bodied men who are not only out of the workforce, they’re not looking.”

“We took shop… pic.twitter.com/33eVay6muE

— Holden Culotta (@Holden_Culotta) April 24, 2025

h/t @Holden_Culotta

*  *  *

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Satisfaction guaranteed. Simply ask for a refund... Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 18:05

The Death Of Globalization

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

With so much attention focused on U.S. stock markets, it seems timely to pivot away from stocks for the moment and consider the global perspective. Globalization may be dying in terms of trade and supply chains, but financial markets are inextricably linked in ways that relatively few understand.

King Dollar Still Rules

The dollar still dominates the global financial system despite the cracks in the foundation and the valid criticisms. If there’s a dollar problem in Eurodollar banks, it’s sure to echo from Tokyo to Shanghai and New York. And problems in those locales affect everything else.

I’ve just returned from separate visits to India, Japan and Jekyll Island, Georgia. India has the largest population in the world, has the fifth largest economy, is a nuclear power and a key member of BRICS. Japan is the fourth largest economy in the world and is a key geopolitical ally of the United States in its faceoff with China. Jekyll Island is a lovely ocean resort but is best known as the site of a secret meeting in 1910 where the Morgan, Rockefeller and Warburg interests dreamed up the Federal Reserve System.

I continually urge people to get away from their desks, stop staring at screens and go out and talk to real people. There’s no substitute for walking the streets around the world (including the poorest areas) if you really want to know what’s going on.

While India, Japan and Jekyll Island could hardly be more diverse and geographically scattered, they share a common thread. It’s their economic linkage through the U.S. dollar. The following are some impressions I gathered during these visits that reflect the volatile situation facing markets today.

A Reasonable Response to Tariffs

India and Japan had the most reasoned response to Trump’s new tariff policies. Trump quickly backed off his high “reciprocal” tariffs (27% for India and 24% for Japan) and reverted to his blanket 10% tariff on all imports for every country in the world except China.

Responses varied from retaliation tariffs (proposed by Canada, China and the EU) to a much more reasonable approach of simply asking the White House for a meeting to sit down and discuss the issue amicably with a view to lowering tariffs in both directions. Japan and India fell into this latter category and are being rewarded by being included among the first countries that will actually have that opportunity. (Mexico has also taken the moderate route by engaging in discussions rather than retaliation).

There will be some give and take. Some U.S. tariffs on certain items are likely to remain in place. But the optimal solution is not to cut down on U.S. purchases from those countries but for them to buy more from the U.S.

That trims the U.S. trade deficit without reducing world trade and so constitutes a win-win resolution with both India and Japan. India will likely buy more military hardware and semiconductors from the U.S. Japan will likely buy more agricultural goods including soybeans and beef. The result will be higher growth in the U.S.

Bilateral deals like this have losers. Taiwan may miss out on some semiconductor sales (although they are investing hundreds of billions of dollars to build semiconductors in the U.S.). Russia may miss out on military sales to India although they will remain a major energy supplier. Still, the U.S. is done being the “consumer of last resort” to the world and wants to increase its profile as a seller. Trump’s policies move the U.S. in that direction.

Take Care of Your Own

There is little question that the new U.S. tariff policy will hurt some countries around the world. Not to sound harsh, but that’s their problem. Trump’s job is to make America great again. President Xi’s job is to make China great again. Chancellor-in-waiting Merz’s job is to make Germany great again.

The U.S. cannot carry the world on its back. If other countries (rich or poor) took Trump’s growth-oriented approach instead of free riding on America, the entire world would be better off. That’s certainly the view from the White House and is a good guide to U.S. policy going forward.

Defenders of China point to the fact that Chinese exports are not a particularly large percentage of their total GDP. (Germany is the worst offender by that metric). The problem with that data point does not come from the Chinese export number; I’m sure that’s roughly correct. The distortion comes from the GDP denominator. Chinese GDP is overstated by 100% (at least) perhaps more, and China may already be in a recession.

The reason is that China shows about 45% of its GDP as investment, mostly in the form of government backed construction. I’ve been to the ghost cities in China and seen more on the horizon. I got mud on my boots on the construction sites (except I was wearing Italian loafers). There is real steel, glass and copper in the buildings and it takes real labor to build them. That all counts as GDP.

But they’re all empty. If you used GAAP or international accounting principles, you would write that investment down to zero immediately. You can’t put a ghost city into inventory. Buildings age rapidly and take enormous amounts to maintain. I saw this in the Congo in the early 1980s. They had a commodity boom in the 1970s and wasted much of the money on skyscrapers and other showcase projects.

By the time I arrived there, the windows were falling out and rust stains ran down the sides of their showcases. The same thing will happen in China. Once you make that accounting adjustment for wasted investment, GDP shrinks, and the Chinese export/GDP ratio goes up exponentially. China is much more dependent on exports for any real growth than most analysts realize. Trump and Scott Bessent have this right.

It All Depends on Conditions

Tariffs are not automatically good or bad for an economy. Their impact depends on initial conditions when the tariffs are imposed. Tariffs are a tool that should be applied judiciously. A country that overinvests and under consumes will be hurt by tariffs. The tariffs will increase investment and restrain consumption, making the imbalance worse. That’s what happened to the U.S. under the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs in 1930 and later.

A country that over consumes and underinvests will benefit from tariffs. That’s the situation in the U.S. today. The tariffs will increase investment as foreign and domestic investors build new plants behind tariff walls. Tariffs will channel consumer dollars from consumption into savings, which is also desirable. In the end, consumption will expand not because of cheap imports but because of high-paying U.S. jobs.

China is in the category that overinvests (much of it wasted) and under consumes. China’s best strategy would be to lower its own tariffs and allow its people to spend their savings on imported goods from the U.S. and EU along with their own production. That would reduce China’s trade surplus with the U.S., increase China’s GDP and improve the well-being of its own people. It would also make an excellent opening move in any effort to get the U.S. to reduce its tariffs on China.

The U.S. is making good use of tariffs. China is doing the opposite. China may be fighting to a draw in the rhetorical war, but it will definitely lose the trade war. Japan, India and Mexico are models of how to make progress. China is the poster child for how to fail.

Global supply chains will no doubt be disrupted by the tariff and trade wars now erupting. Reconfiguring supply chains will be a one-to-two-year transition. But once it’s done, the new supply chains will prove durable. Volkswagen blundered badly by putting its new Audi Q5 plant in Mexico. Their U.S. sales are booming right now (beat the tariffs!) but will fall off a cliff once dealer inventories are drained and tariffs apply. Still, that’s a management blunder not a global disruption. Supply chains are adaptable with a lag. U.S. soybeans will soon be on their way to Japan if China doesn’t want them.

As an aside, Elon Musk’s shelf life in the White House pantry will soon expire. Musk sparked a pointless feud with White House trade and manufacturing czar Peter Navarro. I know Peter fairly well (a conversation with him is like a graduate level oral exam but that’s another matter). When Elon attacked Navarro, he messed with the wrong guy. Navarro took a bullet for Trump by serving four months in a federal penitentiary rather than answer a subpoena that sought to pierce the veil of executive privilege between the two. That’s the kind of loyalty Trump respects. Navarro also happens to be right about tariffs despite Musk’s whining.

The Silent Financial Crisis

With regard to the Federal Reserve System that emerged from the swamps around Jekyll Island, the Fed has fallen into complete irrelevance. They have modest impact on the short-end of the yield curve (Treasury bills) but have no material impact on the intermediate- and long-end of the yield curve (Treasury notes and bonds).

U.S. national debt and spending will never be brought under control. But sustainable growth can be stimulated by sound fiscal policies, if not by the Fed. As long as nominal growth is greater than nominal debt increases, then the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will shrink. That’s the simple formula behind Scott Bessent’s Three Arrows plan and it can feed on itself in a virtuous circle.

What the Fed and the Treasury have done (mostly under Biden) is to create a global dollar shortage, which is now morphing into a global liquidity crisis. China is not dumping Treasuries because they’re distancing themselves from the dollar. Quite the opposite. China is selling Treasuries because they’re desperate for dollars and can’t get them from Japanese banks who have their own problems with carry trade unwinds.

The liquidity crisis then goes back to European banks who can’t fund in Eurodollars and U.S. hedge funds who can’t find collateral to support their derivatives basis trades. India is not immune.

The best description of a financial crisis I’ve ever heard is that “Everybody wants his money back.” We’re dangerously close to that situation right now. If it gets worse, trade, tariffs and stock markets will be a sideshow. Watch Treasury yields and foreign exchange markets if you really want to know what’s going on.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 17:30

Putin Announces Kursk Region Fully Liberated From Ukrainians

Russia's top military leaders as well as President Vladimir Putin have on Saturday declared the full liberation of Russia's Kursk region, after Ukrainian forces invaded and occupied huge swathes of it starting last August.

The final fight was for the village of Gornal, which lies on the Ukrainian border. Fighting on the vicinity of the settlement became fierce earlier this month, and the tide was definitely in Moscow forces' favor after the capture of a key monastery complex. Russian forces accused the Ukrainian army of using the monastery as a military forward operating position.

The damaged St. Nicholas Monastery in Gornal. Source: the Russian Orthodox Church Department for External Church Relations

Putin in a Saturday video address thanked Russian service members "who took part in defeating the neo-Nazi groups" who for over six months held hundreds of square kilometers of sovereign Russian territory. He declared the utter 'failure' of the invasion attempt.

"The Kiev regime’s adventure has completely failed, and the huge losses suffered by the enemy, including among the most combat-ready, trained and equipped, including by Western models of equipment… will certainly be reflected along the entire line of combat contact," he said.

Chief of the general staff Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, informed Putin that the military had "completed the defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces that attacked the Kursk region."

At the height of the cross-border offensive which began last August, Ukraine's military had seized just over 530 square miles, but regional reports beginning last weekend said that significant figure was down to less than just 20 square miles. Gornal was the last Ukrainian holdout in Russian territory.

President Putin's video announcement:

'I congratulate all personnel of all military units that took part in the defeat of neo-Nazi formations that invaded Kursk' — Putin

'The defeat of the neo-Nazi regime is approaching' https://t.co/qEfZI7b4gE pic.twitter.com/bZImKeVHtW

— RT (@RT_com) April 26, 2025

The operation to retake Kursk had clearly become more highly prioritized by the Kremlin over the last couple months, and likely Putin wanted to achieve its full liberation quickly as talks with the US are underway in order to avoid negotiating an exchange of territory. What little leverage Zelensky had regarding Kursk has now been effectively quashed. 

The timing seems intentional as the White House has admitted that Zelensky holds none of the cards. This without doubt puts Moscow in even more control both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 16:55

"This is Not Normal": Democrats Miss An Obvious Problem With The Arrest Of The Wisconsin Judge

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“This is not normal.” Those words from Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., are undeniably true after the arrest of Wisconsin Judge Hannah Dugan. However, the reason it is not normal is far more debatable. Dugan is accused of becoming a lawbreaker in seeking to obstruct an effort to arrest a man wanted by federal authorities. If true, that is manifestly not “normal.”

As soon as the news of the arrest was reported, Democrats declared another constitutional crisis. Klobuchar added that the arrest “is a drastic move threatening the rule of law” and a “grave step and undermines our system of checks and balances.”

That is a curious claim unless Klobuchar believes that the officers are lying. If not, Klobuchar is suggesting that a judge should be allowed (or at least not held accountable) for actively shielding a wanted person and facilitating their evasion of law enforcement.

Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minn., also condemned Dugan’s arrest, stating, “If [FBI Director] Kash Patel and Donald Trump don’t like a judge, they think they can arrest them. This is stunning — we must stand up to this blatant power grab. Republicans: How is this not a red line for you?”

Yet, what is the “red line” for judges if the allegations are true? This judge is accused of conduct that has resulted in charges for other citizens. The judicial robe is not some form of invisibility cloak that allows judges to engage in alleged criminal acts.

The Wisconsin media is reporting:

Sources have told the Journal Sentinel that ICE officials arrived in Dugan’s courtroom on the morning of April 18. When they went to the chief judge’s office, Dugan directed the defendant and his attorney to a side door in the courtroom, directed them down a private hallway and into the public area on the 6th floor.

If true, that would be an active effort to help the suspect elude police who were carrying out a lawful function.

According to the criminal complaint, Flores-Ruiz allegedly attacked three individuals after an altercation with his roommate about playing loud music. Flores-Ruiz allegedly struck his roommate approximately 30 times with a closed fist and then attacked his girlfriend and a third person. Some of the injuries required hospital treatment.

The evasion of police at the courthouse required officers to chase down Ruiz, which could have resulted in a more serious confrontation on the street.

This is not the first time that a judge has been accused of participating in or directing such obstruction.

I previously wrote about the case of Massachusetts judge Shelley M. Richmond Joseph who was charged with allegedly helping an illegal immigrant evade ICE agents in April 2018. Joseph and court officer Wesley MacGregor were charged with conspiracy to obstruct justice, obstruction of justice, aiding and abetting and obstruction of a federal proceeding.

I was critical of the handling of the case. While Joseph was suspended for three years, charges were dropped in 2022 during the Biden Administration.

The Dugan case occurred at the same time that a New Mexico judge was arrested for harboring an unlawful immigrant and an alleged TdA gang member.

Former Doña Ana County Magistrate Judge Joel Cano and his wife were arrested on Thursday. Notably, Cano reportedly admitted to officers that he smashed the phone of Cristhian Ortega-Lopez after the 23-year-old was arrested in a raid at the judge’s home.

As I said on Fox last night, I am perplexed by Democrats rushing to denounce the arrest of Dugan before we know whether these allegations are supported. If she escorted the suspect to a non-public door to facilitate his escape, that is conduct and would constitute a shocking abandonment of judicial ethics. She can certainly use her authority to address matters properly before her in the form of judicial orders, but actively assisting in an escape is well beyond the pale.

I have often criticized the reckless rhetoric directed against judges, including those who have ruled against the Trump Administration. We need to maintain our civility and respect as we work through these often difficult questions.

However, that works both ways. Judges have to reinforce respect for the judiciary in their own conduct. That includes showing restraint and respect in relation to the countervailing powers of the Executive Branch. It certainly includes avoiding actions that could be viewed as criminal or unethical in resisting this Administration.

That is also a “red line.”

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the author of best-selling book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” 

*  *  *

On Sale! Grab a complete 2-day emergency survival backpack at ZH Store

Click pic... add to cart (one for each car & your go-bag storage)... be more prepared. Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back. Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 16:20

"Fit, Not Fat": Hegseth Vows Course Correction As Report Finds Two-Thirds Of Reserve Troops Are Overweight

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth expressed his dismay on April 25 after a new report found that more than two-thirds of U.S. military reserve personnel are overweight.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth participates in a morning physical training session with troops stationed in Warsaw, Poland, on Feb. 14, 2025. DoD photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander C. Kubitza

Washington-based think tank American Security Project (ASP) published a white paper this week that found that nearly 68 percent of reserve troops are overweight or obese.

In 2018, when the Department of Defense last surveyed obesity rates in the reserve military components, it found that around 65 percent of reserve troops were considered overweight or obese.

“The number of young adults interested in military service remains sufficient to maintain current force strength. However, as overweight and obesity disqualify thousands of applicants each year, services are incentivized to violate body composition enlistment standards to meet recruitment goals,” the new ASP report reads.

Hegseth took to social media platform X on Friday to call the report’s findings “completely unacceptable.”

“This is what happens when standards are IGNORED — and this is what we are changing. REAL fitness & weight standards are here,” the defense secretary said. “We will be FIT, not FAT.”

HEGSETH: "Troops... need to be fit, not fat." pic.twitter.com/qhZuLwM3Hn

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) April 23, 2025

Fitness standards remain a multi-faceted challenge for the military.

The Army rolled out its Future Soldier Preparatory Course in 2022 as a means of helping prospective recruits meet the minimum fitness and academic standards to serve. The Navy launched a similar preparatory course in 2024.

While pre-ascension courses can help prospective recruits get in shape to serve, the ASP report raises concerns about current active and reserve component members.

“Although the reserve component’s obesity-related challenges are similar to those in the active component, commanders and policymakers will not be able to combat these trends with a uniform approach,” it reads.

The report notes that reserve components face unique challenges in keeping their troops in shape.

“Armed with far less data and public attention, the reserve component faces an uphill battle reconciling complex systems of duty status-dependent health care benefits, a force spread all over the world and across 54 states and territories, and critical medical records siloed between DOD and private providers,” it reads.

Last month, the defense secretary ordered a military-wide review of fitness standards.

Hegseth had been outspoken about his concerns with fitness standards in the military even before taking on his current role as the defense secretary. Several of his past comments have focused on whether women should serve in combat roles.

During his confirmation process, senators asked Hegseth to elaborate on his views on women in combat and other issues concerning military fitness standards.

“It’s not about the capabilities of men and women, it’s about standards,” he said.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 14:00

NATO Chief Lobbies Trump Not To Pressure Ukraine Into Peace Deal

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte after meeting with President Donald Trump and Norway’s PM Jonas Gahr Støre on Thursday proclaimed that all Western leaders, including Trump, are on the same page viewing Russia as a "long-term threat" to NATO territory.

Rutte was optimistic about Trump helping to potentially end the Russia-Ukraine war, saying that "huge steps" have lately been made which put the onus on Russia to respond by displaying positive action or making concessions.

But it's clear there's a lot of tensions and discomfort in the Western military alliance given the optics of more US pressure being brought to bear against Ukraine and Zelensky in particular. This has been seen in the back-and-forth over the fate of Crimea.

Trump on Wednesday unleashed immense criticism on the Ukrainian President for his rejection of a US plan that would given recognition of Russian sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula. Trump had said on Truth Social in reference to Zelensky,  "if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired"... and "He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country."

It's clear that Rutte's trip to Washington was in large part about lobbying Trump to take the pressure off Zelensky. A prior Financial Times  report had said Rutte would urge the White House "not to force Ukraine to accept a peace deal against its will."

Presumably this message was also conveyed in the NATO chief's meetings with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz on Thursday. 

A NATO official had told FT, "The key message is making the Americans understand what’s at stake." Western officials and mainstream media have at times described Trump's latest messaging on the conflict as outright 'pro-Russian'. Trump had said Thursday that Russia's main concession to Ukraine is not taking over the whole country, which were viewed as highly provocative remarks.

Meanwhile, Trump told reporters Friday, "We’re meeting with Putin right now as we speak" - in reference to Steve Witkoff being in Moscow. "We have a lot of things going on, and I think at the end, we’re going to end up with a lot of good deals, including tariff deals and trade deals, but we’re going to try to get out of war." He added that he thinks "we're pretty close" to achieving a peace deal.

Among other things the Russian side has demanded the cessation of Western arms and ammo to Ukraine, but Washington wants Ukraine to be able to maintain the ability to react forcibly, which contradicts Moscow's desire for the full demilitarization of the country.

* * *

Meanwhile, independent journalist and political commentator Michal Tracey has a strong note of caution regarding where things actually are regarding progress on Ukraine peace...

The most generous interpretation of Trump's negotiating strategy thus far is that he's made relatively cost-free conciliatory gestures to Russia, which Putin has to some degree reciprocated. This makes sense, as the party against whom US military assets have been arrayed is Russia, and there had been little or no high-level US/Russian contact for several years.

In order to achieve a settlement to the war, there would have to be some "detente" with Russia, as the cut-off in contacts between 2022-2025 was a huge historical aberration. Even during the most fraught Soviet days, never had there been any comparable cut-off in contacts between the world's leading nuclear powers. Trump has simultaneously taken a publicly aggressive line toward Ukraine. This also makes sense, as Ukraine is a US client state, and it's over Ukraine that the US has leverage -- not necessarily Russia.

The Biden Administration's incessant mantra had been "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," thereby purporting to displace US policy agency onto Ukraine, despite the US obviously having the ultimate agency as arms supplier, intel-provider, NATO leader, etc. Trump has shifted that fictional "agency" calculus.

But leaving aside the public gestures and diplomatic posturing (while important), the policy status quo to a large extent persists. US sanctions have not been adjusted. Aside from a brief interruption in March, US arms continue to flow to Ukraine. Europe is re-militarizing, however fitfully. Ukraine has no credible plans to take back major territory currently occupied by Russia. Thus the principal concession that would have to be obtained at this point, in terms of the underlying power dynamic, is from Russia.

Freezing the conflict along the current lines had been previously denounced by Putin as intolerable. Now we hear that the outline of the Trump proposal includes not just freezing the current lines, but allowing Ukraine to control significant parts of what Putin has declared to be eternal territory of the Russian Federation. Along with the US taking control of the Zapohirizia nuclear plant (also located on territory annexed by Putin.) Russia would further be required to abandon its original war aim of "demilitarizing" Ukraine, although it's possible that this provision could be subject to technical modifications.

All the while, there's no indication that US/EU/NATO would cease arming Ukraine under the "ceasefire" framework. If anything, the armament could intensify, as Norway's prime minister pledged in a meeting today with Trump. It's very easy to imagine Russian "milbloggers" and hawks being utterly infuriated if Putin were to accept the terms proposed by Trump -- at least as they have been publicly reported. It could easily be spun as a capitulation by Russia.

US recognition of Crimea might be a nice side perk, but it may not have much direct bearing on the core grievances that gave rise to the 2022 invasion. Russia has never been in serious jeopardy of losing Crimea, so US recognition in practice would be a mostly legalistic change. In totality, it makes little sense for Trump to publicly antagonize Putin at this time. (Notwithstanding his "Vladimir, STOP!" post, which is pretty mild all things considered.) Whether the public gestures are sufficient for Putin to accept ceasefire terms that could be easily spun as a capitulation remains in considerable doubt -- but it's not IMPOSSIBLE that a settlement of some sort could be achieved, if Putin is willing to significantly scale down his 2022 war aims.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 12:15

"We Need An Uprising": Democratic Rep. Calls On People To "Threaten" Congress And "Take To The Streets"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, D-Fla., is the latest Democratic politician to use rage rhetoric to rally voters despite an alarming increase in political violence on the left. Calling for an “uprising,” Wilson also lashed out at the Laken Riley Act.

Wilson was visiting the ICE Krome Detention Center in Miami and declared:

“So I’ve been giving out the phone numbers to the House of Representatives and to the Senate. It’s one number that number you call and you threaten it, and you say, this is wrong. This is not America. This is not what we stand for. We need a change. You have to do that. It’s going to take the people. We’ve done it.

We need the people. We needed an uprising where people are taking to the streets and the phones and writing letters. That’s what we need.”

She is not alone.

Rep. Maxine Waters (D., Cal.) said “We are here to fight back.” Sen. Cory Booker (D., NJ) called on citizens to “fight” and declared “We will rise up.”

Not to be outdone in the rage fest, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D., TX) yelled, “We are gonna be in your face, we are gonna be on your a–es, and we are going to make sure you understand what democracy looks like, and this ain’t it.”

Rep. LaMonica McIver (D., N.J.) added: “God d—it shut down the Senate!…WE ARE AT WAR!”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., called for Democrats to fight  “in the streets.”

In my recent book, I discuss the role of rage rhetoric in our politics extending back to the very beginning of the Republic. The danger is that it can give a license to some for political violence, including those who claim that they are now triggered by everything from candidates to cars.

Wilson also lashed out at the Laken Riley Act and complained that:

“The Laken Riley Act has caused an increase in detainees, and these are people who have… you could have been here forever… walking across the street, jaywalking, or shoplifting, they will detain you and bring you right here.”

First, the Laken Riley Act was enacted to increase such arrests. It does not cover jaywalking. 

The highly popular law allows the detention of illegal immigrants accused of theft-related crimes, assaulting a police officer, or a crime that results in death or serious bodily injury, including drunk driving. 

Twelve Democratic senators voted for the Act.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 11:40

Is Walking Away From Ukraine The Best Option For Trump And The US?

This week Vice President JD Vance reiterated the Trump Administration's position that "walking away from Ukraine" and the peace negotiations after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded that Crimea be "liberated" as part of the terms.  Zelensky argued that the "war against the entire free Europe" began with Crimea and must end with the return of Crimea. 

Vance's frustration with Zelensky is understandable. As he noted, Ukraine is in no position to demand anything given their precarious position on the battlefield.  Russia's attrition tactics have been highly effective in countering western arms and intel support on the eastern front while also whittling down Ukrainian troop strength.  They have also retaken almost all of the gains made by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region while they amass troops to take Sumy to the south. 

Furthermore, Vladimir Putin's latest missile salvo on Kyiv proves that the Kremlin has actually been holding back, and heavy bombardment of the capital is entirely possible.  Ukraine does not have the ability to defend against such an attack should it occur.

At bottom, Ukraine has no options.  They need to settle now, give up the Donbas and Crimea, or lose everything.  A deal would probably have been secured by now if it weren't for interference from the European establishment.

The Europeans have once again organized a peace talks event, this time in London, as a means to make the situation about them rather than make it about achieving a legitimate end to the war.  Russia is, yet again, not included in the talks which makes the event nothing more than irrelevant pomp for the media.  This is likely the real reason why Secretary of State Marco Rubio has cancelled his attendance at the meeting and the European elites are left to jabber in their echo chamber.  Nothing is going to be accomplished anyway.

 

European political leaders seem intent on keeping the war going for as long as possible while threatening to deploy troops to Ukraine and escalate the conflict, possibly triggering WWIII.  The ongoing narrative is that Ukraine is the "first domino" in a series of dominoes that could come crashing down across Europe if the Russians are allowed any form of victory.  In other words, it's the Vietnam argument all over again - If the Russians get the Donbas, then they will want all of Ukraine, and then they will want all of Europe and the world.

The economic and military weakness shown by European governments in the past year might very well tempt such an invasion, but it's highly unlikely that Russia is interested nor has Putin ever made such a threat.  

The greater question is, should the US remain involved?  Are JD Vance and Trump correct in their position that walking away might be the superior option?  Or is this simply a negotiation tactic to force Ukraine to accept a realistic settlement?

It's clear that no matter what the US does the Europeans are going to do everything in their power to sabotage a formal peace agreement.  It was Europe (Boris Johnson and others) that reportedly convinced Zelensky to avoid diplomatic options and continue fighting.  Ukraine's leverage has degraded to nothing since then and it's impossible to know for now how many tens-of-thousands (or hundreds-of-thousands) have died.  It's Europe that is currently giving Zelensky false hope that troop deployments are coming and that they will make a difference in the end.

Ukraine is never getting the Donbas back and there is no scenario in which military victory is viable, for Europe or Ukraine.  But, if the goal is to start a World War, then it makes sense to continue pushing for liberation of Russian holdings like Crimea.  Trump is continually criticized for pointing out the obvious: That Ukraine has lost the war and needs to make concessions.  Peace negotiations must take the facts on the ground into account. 

In any case, the US avoiding involvement sounds like the smart option.  Unless Trump can find a way to keep European interference out of the equation there is little hope for an end to the fighting.  On the bright side, reopening talks with Russia could help ease the greater global instability that is simmering.  And, leaving Ukraine to their own devices for a time might help them to realize European globalists do not have their best interests at heart.  Then again, not being involved means those same globalists will have free rein to influence the war as they please.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 10:30

Dutch King Says Country Must Prepare For War, Pushes For Drone Development

Via Remix News,

As EU leaders rally for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine and push the idea of a European military no longer dependent on America, the Netherlands’ monarch has joined the chorus. 

“We may have taken it a bit too much for granted that we would always have freedom and peace,” King Willem-Alexander said at the Lieutenant General Best Barracks, writes De Telegraaf. 

“Unfortunately, Ukraine and other conflicts prove that this is no longer the case. And that we really have to prepare ourselves to continue living in peace and security. If you are not prepared, then you are not doing well,” he said.

Such a rearmament means the Netherlands must rebuild its defense industry, the monarch continued, adding, “It really needs to be able to start producing for a conflict again.”

The country, he said, must “arm itself to the teeth” to remain safe.

Following talks with military personnel and weapons manufacturers, the country will focus on producing better drones to take on enemy drones, given their dominance on the battlefield. Of key concern is making drones capable of say, securing the upcoming June NATO summit at The Hague

King Willem-Alexander himself served in the military, and as a reservist for the Air Force held the title of air commodore. 

He also was a commodore as a reservist in the navy and a brigadier general as a reservist in the army. 

After testing out a Dutch-made drone Ukraine used to detect mines, the king explained: “The operator must also be able to do very complicated work,” like mapping a minefield.

Soldiers also demonstrated weapons capable of disrupting the operation of a drone to take it out of the air, including taking over its controls, although even the king was not told how this is done.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 09:55

Massive Explosion Rocks Port On Strait Of Hormuz

At least 500 people were injured after a massive explosion rocked Iran's largest and most strategically significant maritime hub in the southern Hormozgan Province on the Strait of Hormuz. 

Iranian state media outlet Tasnim reported that the blast occurred on Saturday at the Shahid Rajaee Port. The outlet said, "The port remains in a state of chaos," and many buildings have been destroyed. 

#Iran Emergency Department spokesperson: The number of injured from Shahid Rajaee Port explosion reaches 516. https://t.co/h0FIYU3eaR pic.twitter.com/OL7HWMqrOD

— Iran Nuances (@IranNuances) April 26, 2025

Visual confirmation that the explosion at Rajaiee port of #BandarAbbas took place in a previously known depot of Bana Gostar company which the #IRGC Quds Force had often stored ammunition and explosive material in containers prior to be exported to its proxies from #Iran. https://t.co/3FQTdWvrjI pic.twitter.com/4WG9bSO6QC

— Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) April 26, 2025

Tasnim reported that a fuel tank had "exploded for an unknown reason," and port operations had been shuttered. A report from the state media outlet IRIB stated that the explosion occurred in the port's chemical and sulfur area. 

Footage shows the moment a powerful blast struck Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas.

Follow our live blog for the latest updates on the explosion at Iran’s southern port:https://t.co/oNw2zJ2IAl pic.twitter.com/TguPLizIbB

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 26, 2025

BREAKING | A massive explosion has been reported at the Port of Shahid Rajaee, one of two sections within the Port of Bandar Abbas, located on the north shore of the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran.

According to Mehr News Agency, a fuel tank in the port exploded due to unknown… pic.twitter.com/vN8r4yHyCT

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) April 26, 2025

Designated as a Special Economic Zone, Shahid Rajaee Port handles about 85% of Iran's total port cargo operations. Its annual capacity is about 70 million tons, including 6 million TEUs of containerized cargo. The port spans 2,400 hectares and features 40 berths and 19 hectares of warehouses.

The port also serves as a critical node for Iran's oil exports, equipped with docks that can accommodate large tankers. These facilities enable the annual export of around 34 million tons of oil products, including gasoline, naphtha, gas condensate, marine fuel, and mazut. 

At the same time, Iran and U.S. officials began the third round of negotiations in Oman's capital of Muscat about the fate of the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. Here's more color on the second round.

The negotiations aim to suppress Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the U.S. lifting some economic sanctions it has imposed on the Islamic Republic. 

President Trump has threatened to launch airstrikes targeting Iran's critical infrastructure if a deal is not reached. 

Last month, the U.S. began deploying stealth bombers to Diego Garcia—often referred to as Washington's "unsinkable aircraft carrier"—located between Africa and Indonesia, about 1,000 miles south of India. The island serves as a critical launch point for stealth bombers in the event of a war with Iran. Staging the bombers on the island, well within striking distance, has made Tehran deeply uncomfortable.

Let's take a step back to an October op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, penned by David Asher—a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a former U.S. State Department official who worked on counterterrorism operations in the Middle East—who advocated for neutering the Iranian regime's "oil-export capacity to deprive the regime of its financial lifeblood." 

Any event on the critical maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz—such as an explosion at a major port—could spark uncertainty among energy traders and push Brent crude futures higher on Sunday evening.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 09:20

Trump Unleashes More Anger, Frustration At Zelensky For Not Signing Rare Earths Deal

On Friday there's been more public, out in the open tension on display between Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump once again chastised the Ukrainian leader for apparently refusing to sign the controversial rare earths deal. 

US administration officials had last week previewed that they expected it to be signed this week, which generated many anticipatory headlines, but there's as yet nothing to show for it, and the reports proved premature.

"Ukraine, headed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has not signed the final papers on the very important Rare Earths Deal with the United States. It is at least three weeks late," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Getty Images

The statement was issued while he was en route to Rome aboard Air Force One for the pope's funeral. Trump emphasized, "Hopefully, it will be signed IMMEDIATELY."

"Work on the overall Peace Deal between Russia and Ukraine is going smoothly. SUCCESS seems to be in the future," Trump added.

Ukraine has been hoping that agreeing with the deal would allow it to secure more specific and lasting security guarantees in the face of the Russian threat. Washington has so far agreed that the country should be able to forcibly defend itself if Moscow violates any future peace pact.

But clearly this week's sparring between Kiev and Washington over Crimea has helped further deal a minerals deal. The White House wants Ukraine to be ready to give up Crimea permanently, and is ready to recognize Russian sovereignty over it.

However, Zelensky reiterated to reporters on Friday, "Our position is unchanged. The constitution of Ukraine says that all the temporarily occupied territories... belong to Ukraine."

Crimea should be the easiest concession for Zelensky to make because:
1) it’s been part of Russia for the last decade.
2) the vast majority of its population are ethnic Russians who (as western polling shows) want to be part of Russia.
3) Ukraine has no military way to retake it.… pic.twitter.com/XwQYlc7cMc

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) April 23, 2025

To review, Ukraine says that some 5% of the world's "critical raw materials" are in the country. They include:

...some 19m tonnes of proven reserves of graphite, which the Ukrainian Geological Survey state agency says makes the nation "one of the top five leading countries" for the supply of the mineral. Graphite is used to make batteries for electric vehicles.

Ukraine has 7% of Europe's supplies of titanium, a lightweight metal used in the construction of everything from aeroplanes to power stations.

It is also home to a third of all European lithium deposits, the key component in current batteries.

Other elements found in Ukraine include beryllium and uranium, which are both crucial for nuclear weapons and reactors.

Deposits of copper, lead, zinc, silver, nickel, cobalt and manganese are also significant.

Trump's impatience could also stem from the fact that a little over a week ago Ukraine signed a memorandum of intent, paving the way for an "economic partnership agreement" with the US. But apparently not much has happened since then, and the White House fears Kiev is just stalling.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 08:45

US Eyes Nuclear Power Deal With Armenia

Via Eurasianet.org,

• The US Embassy in Armenia has indicated that the United States is working to secure a deal for Westinghouse Nuclear to build Armenia’s next nuclear reactor.

• Armenia is seeking to replace its aging Metsamor nuclear facility and has been exploring expanded civil nuclear energy cooperation with the United States since mid-2024.

• Russia’s Rosatom, which currently operates the Metsamor facility, is likely to compete with Westinghouse for the contract to build Armenia's next nuclear plant.

A somewhat cryptic social media post by the US Embassy in Armenia indicates the United States is maneuvering to build the Caucasus state’s next nuclear reactor.

The awkwardly phrased information snippet appearing on the embassy’s official Facebook and Twitter (X) pages April 22 states Ambassador Kristina Kvien “met Westinghouse to discuss Armenia’s nuclear energy sector,” adding only that “U.S. companies have deep expertise and innovative technology that will benefit both Armenia and the United States.”

A photo of the smiling ambassador posing with four unidentified, suit-clad individuals, apparently Westinghouse executives, accompanies the brief text.

No other information has been disclosed about the Westinghouse delegation’s visit, including how long company executives were in Armenia, who they met with besides the ambassador and the outcome of any discussions with Armenian political and business leaders.

What is known is that Armenia is interested in replacing its aging Metsamor nuclear facility, which recently underwent refurbishment to extend its lifecycle until 2036. What is also known is that Westinghouse Nuclear has developed a “Gen III+ AP1000” reactor, featuring a “compact footprint” and modular design that, in the company’s words, “has set the new industry standard for PWR [pressurized water reactors] thanks to our simplified, innovative, and effective approach to safety.”

Armenia and the United States have been exploring ways to expand civil nuclear energy cooperation since mid-2024. As part of a strategic partnership agreement signed in January during the final days of the Biden administration, the two countries agreed to negotiate what is known as a 123 agreement, which would allow for the transfer of nuclear technologies from the United States to Armenia.

Whether Westinghouse Nuclear ultimately gets the contract to build a nuclear plant in Armenia remains anyone’s guess. Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear agency, operates the Metsamor facility and the Kremlin is unlikely to surrender a lucrative business opportunity to build Metsamor’s replacement without a fight.

Armenia has deemphasized the country’s historically strong relationship with Russia and has cultivated closer economic and political ties with the US and European Union since Yerevan’s defeat in the Second Karabakh War in 2023. Armenian officials blame the Kremlin for Karabakh’s loss, saying Moscow failed to uphold security commitments to maintain Armenian sovereignty. In recent weeks, however, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government has softened its stance toward Russia, apparently hoping that Moscow’s influence can prove useful in getting Azerbaijan to sign a peace treaty with Armenia.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 08:10

Soldiers Deny Former Defense Minister's Claim That Israel Faked Gaza Tunnel Photo To Delay Hostage Deal

The Israeli government deliberately misrepresented the nature of a tunnel in Gaza's Philadelphi Corridor to derail a hostage deal with Hamas, according to a former Israeli defense minister in an interview aired by an Israeli public television network. While two soldiers who claim to have seen the tunnel say he's wrong, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have not yet  issued a public denial.   

The alleged deception happened last August, amid massive protests by Israeli citizens pressing the Israeli government to make a deal to secure the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas. At the time, the status of the Philadelphi Corridor -- a 100-meter-wide strip running 14 miles along Gaza's border with Egypt -- was a major obstruction to a hostage deal. (The corridor is a geopolitically important buffer zone that figures in security agreements between Israel and Egypt.) Hamas was demanding a withdrawal of IDF forces from the strip as a condition of a hostage release, while Netanyahu insisted the IDF would continue operating in it.

Last August, the Israeli Defense Forces distributed this photo and claimed it depicted a Hamas smuggling tunnel along Gaza's Egyptian border (IDF Spokesperson's Unit)

It was against that backdrop that the IDF released a photo that was supposed to show a Hamas tunnel in the Philadelphi Corridor used to smuggle weapons from Egypt. Israeli-government-sympathetic news outlets and pro-Israel organizations inside the United States seized upon the narrative to defend Netanyahu's deal-precluding insistence on keeping troops in the corridor. The Times of Israel trumpeted the discovery of an "unusually large smuggling tunnel." The Israel-catering Foundation for Defense of Democracies said the tunnel was "further evidence of the underground empire of terror that Hamas assembled in southern Gaza. This is important work and should continue." 

This week, however, Israeli public television network Kan 11 reported that the Israeli government purposefully deceived Israeli citizens and the rest of the world, dressing up a mere water channel as a supposed Hamas tunnel. “There was never a tunnel, but a canal covered in dirt,” said the report. The scheme's purpose "was to exaggerate the importance of the Philadelphi Corridor and delay a hostage deal." 

The supposed smuggling tunnel viewed from a different angle (Telegram via Haaretz)

The source of the accusation is a former member of Netanyahu's government: Yoav Gallant, who was defense minister from 2022 until Netanyahu fired him in November 2024. Speaking about the photo this week, he told Kan 11: 

"What the public cannot see is that this channel is not 30 meters underground, but just one meter underground. It is a covered water conduit…It was not a tunnel, but rather an attempt to prevent a ceasefire agreement...Someone took the picture, and a big fuss was made about it, a lot of headlines... weapons did not pass beneath the Philadelphi corridor."

NEW | Israeli Army Fabricated Gaza Tunnel Discovery to Stall Ceasefire Talks

Israel’s public broadcaster KAN 11 reports the Israeli military fabricated claims of discovering a tunnel in Gaza’s Philadelphi Corridor to stall ceasefire negotiations and delay a hostage deal.

➤ The… pic.twitter.com/NEU7tJoWsI

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) April 22, 2025

Gallant has been one of Israel's foremost hostage-deal advocates and a Netanyahu critic. In September, sources said Gallant confronted Netanyahu in a contentious evening security cabinet meeting. "The decision made Thursday [to refuse to withdraw from the corridor] was reached under the assumption that there is time, but if we want the hostages alive, there’s no time,” he reportedly said. "The fact that we prioritize the Philadelphi corridor at the cost of the lives of the hostages is a serious moral disgrace." Netanyahu was said to have countered with the questionable claim that, if the IDF left the corridor, "the hostages will be taken to Sinai, and then to Iran." 

Ahead of the airing of the Kan 11 report, two IDF soldiers said Gallant's claims are false. "This famous photo is a photo of my battalion commander here in a Hummer entering a very significant tunnel, not some small tunnel as you published," said Yehuda Bartov, a reserve soldier from the 605th Engineering Battalion. Their assertions were reported by Arutz Sheva, a network associated with the settler movement and extremist Religious Zionism party -- the latter of which is part of Netanyahu's ruling coalition. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 07:35

Europe's Anti-American Shift: Now Globalists Are The Saviors Of The West?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

Nationalism is villainous and globalists are the heroes? It’s a propaganda message that has been building since the end of World War II and the creation of globalist institutions like the UN, the IMF, World Banks, etc. By the 1970s there was a concerted and dangerous agenda to acclimate the western world to interdependency; not just dependency on imports and exports, but dependency of currency trading, treasury purchases and interbank wealth transfer systems like SWIFT.

This was the era when corporations began outsourcing western manufacturing to third world countries. This is when the dollar was fully decoupled from gold. When the IMF introduced the SDR basket system. When the decade long stagflationary crisis began.

This was when the World Economic Forum was founded. The Club of Rome and their climate change agenda. When numerous globalists started talking within elitist publications and white papers talking about a one world economy and a one world government (under their control, of course). By the 1990s everything was essentially out in the open and the plan was clear:

Their intention was to destroy national sovereignty and bring in an age of total global centralization. One of the most revealing quotes on the plan comes from Clinton Administration Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbot, who stated in Time magazine in 1992 that:

“In the next century, nations as we know it will be obsolete; all states will recognize a single, global authority… National sovereignty wasn’t such a great idea after all.”

He adds in the same article:

“…The free world formed multilateral financial institutions that depend on member states’ willingness to give up a degree of sovereignty. The International Monetary Fund can virtually dictate fiscal policies, even including how much tax a government should levy on its citizens. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade regulates how much duty a nation can charge on imports. These organizations can be seen as the protoministries of trade, finance and development for a united world.”

The globalists use international trade controls as a way to ensnare competing economies, forcing them to become homogeneous. They take away the self reliance of nations and pressure them to conform to global trade standards. It’s important to understand that they view centralized dominance of trade as a primary tool for eventually obtaining their new world order.

The idea of a country going off the plantation and initiating unilateral tariffs is unheard of. The notion of countries producing their own necessities is absurd. As least, until 2025.

One of the most humorous and bewildering side effects of the Trump Administration’s policy rollout is the scramble by the political left (especially in Europe) to portray themselves as “rebel heroes fighting for freedom” in the face of a supposedly tyrannical dictatorship. Of course, these are globalists and cultural Marxists we’re dealing with, so their definitions of “freedom” and “tyranny” are going to be irreparably skewed.

The EU elites have truly lost the plot when it comes to their message on “democracy”. Today, many European nations are spiraling into classical authoritarianism, yet they’re pretending as if they’re in a desperate fight for freedom.

I’ve heard it said that authoritarianism is the pathology of recognition. One could also say that it’s the pathology of affirmation – It’s not enough for the offending movement to be recognized as dominant, the population must embrace it, joyfully, as if it is the only thing they care about. This is the underlying goal of globalism: To force the masses to love it like a religion.

But to be loved by the people, they have to believe that globalism is their savior. They have to believe that globalists are somehow saving the world. Enter the new world order theater brought to us by The Economist. The magazine, partially owned by the Rothschild family, has long been a propaganda hub for globalism. They recently published an article titled ‘The Thing About Europe: It’s The Actual Land Of The Free Now’.

Yes, this is laughable given the fact that many European governments are currently hunting down and jailing people for online dissent. Mass open immigration is suffocating western culture on the continent. Violent crime is skyrocketing. Not to mention, the new trend among EU governments is to arrest right leaning political opponents to stop them from winning elections.

Hell, in Europe you can be arrested for silently praying within the vicinity of an abortion clinic. We all understand how absurd The Economist’s claims are. Their argument boils down to this:  If it hurts globalism, it’s a threat to democracy.  That’s the tall tale being formulated in the media today.

The Trump Administration instituting “America First” policies is being called authoritarian by the elites because these things interfere with THEIR agenda, not because Americans are being oppressed.

In many ways the European shift in rhetoric is merely a reflection of the long running globalist strategy: To rewrite nationalists as agents of chaos and paint the internationalists as defenders of order.

In a recent interview with the German news platform Dei Zeit Online, EU President Ursula von der Leyen took the disinformation even further with her claim that there “Is no oligarchy in Europe”. In other words, European leaders are innocent victims under attack by the rich and dastardly nationalists. Frankly, this is news to most of us because the EU government has long been considered the very definition of faceless and unaccountable oligarchy. She argues:

“…History is back, and so are geopolitics. And we see that what we had perceived as a world order is becoming a world disorder, triggered not least by the power struggle between China and the United States, but of course also by Putin’s imperialist ambitions. That is why we need another, new European Union that is ready to go out into the big wide world and to play a very active role in shaping this new world order that is coming.”

Notice the attempt to paint Europe as the virtuous bystander caught up in the geopolitical turmoil of the US, China and Russia. No mention of their ongoing roll in fomenting a wider war in Ukraine, their interference with peace negotiations or the fact that globalism has made them dependent on energy imports for their very survival. This isn’t a lack of awareness, this is carefully crafted propaganda. The EU President continues:

“The readiness of all 27 Member States to strengthen our common defense industry would have been inconceivable without the developments of recent weeks and months. The same applies to the economy. Everyone wants to emulate our common plan for greater competitiveness, because everyone has understood: We need to stand firm in today’s globalized world…”

The EU has been peddling the idea of a unified European army for some time. It makes sense – In order to erase national boundaries even further in Europe, a singular defense structure would have to be established. They’re simply using the war in Ukraine and America’s economic decoupling as an excuse. She continues:

“For me, it is crucial that Europe plays a strong role in shaping the new world order that is slowly emerging. And I firmly believe that Europe can do that. Let’s look back at the last decade: the banking crisis, migration crisis, Brexit, pandemic, energy crisis, Russia’s war against Ukraine. All these are serious crises that have really challenged us, but Europe has emerged bigger and stronger from every crisis…”

Economically, socially, spiritually, culturally, the continent is in a death spiral. No one wants to fight for what Europe is today, including the millions of third world immigrants they’ve invited in. If they do try to institute a centralized military they will have to turn to forced conscription, which means even more tyranny. In terms of the economy she states:

“The West as we knew it no longer exists. The world has become a globe also geopolitically, and today our networks of friendship span the globe…”

“Everyone is asking for more trade with Europe – and it’s not just about economic ties. It is also about establishing common rules and it is about predictability. Europe is known for its predictability and reliability, which is once again starting to be seen as something very valuable. On the one hand, this is very gratifying; on the other hand, there is also of course a huge responsibility that we have to live up to…”

The US makes up 30%-35% of all global consumer spending and is the largest consumer market in the world. There are no clear numbers for the whole of Europe, but Germany, Europe’s largest economy makes up only 3% of global consumer spending. Germany is also the third largest economy in the world next to China. In other words, Europe has NO capacity whatsoever to fill the void in trade left behind by the US. If the US economy detaches from Europe, or if the US economy crashes, Europe would crash also. This is a fact.

Von der Leyen then dismisses the role of globalism in driving populist movements against the EU. She claims:

“There is one thing we should not underestimate: the polarisation is, in part, heavily orchestrated from outside. Via social media, Russia as well as other autocratic states are deliberately interfering in our society…”

“Views on both sides are being amplified because the real goal is to polarize and divide our open societies. But the European Union also has a big advantage. Inequalities are less pronounced here, in part because we have a social market economy and because the levers of power are more widely distributed.”

Russia is to blame for millions of Europeans wanting an end to globalist multicultural policies? Taking a rather Marxist stance, she asserts that populist divisions must be artificial because Europe is economically “equitable”. But the populists are not fighting for economic parity, they’re fighting for European identity which is being systematically erased.

Finally, she comes to the issue of oligarchy:

“Europe is still a peace project. We don’t have bros or oligarchs making the rules. We don’t invade our neighbors, and we don’t punish them…”

“Controversial debates are allowed at our universities. This and more are all values that must be defended, and which show that Europe is more than a union. Europe is our home.”

The EU government is a pure oligarchy with near zero accountability and it is actively trying to suppress and destroy any national party with conservative views. They support silencing any dissent among the peasants, only allowing for debate behind the closed doors of academia because they know academics police their own. The more a society moves towards globalism the less free it’s going to be.

I see this messaging as a kind of crude rough draft for the theatrics to come. They haven’t fine-tuned their story yet, but they have the fundamental pieces in place. The allegation is that national sovereignty is a threat to “democracy”; not freedom, but democracy. And the globalist notion of democracy is progressive rulership in the name of a subjective greater good that they can’t really define.

I feel sympathy for the common European, many of them are hungry for a free society built on traditional western principles. It’s a future that will never materialize, at least not without revolution. These people are at the epicenter of the death of the western world and many of them don’t even know it. In the meantime they’re being told that America is ruining them. I can’t speak for everyone, but many of us would like to save them. The fall of the west to globalism cannot be allowed to continue.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 04/26/2025 - 07:00

All Quiet On The Western Ports... Is This The Calm Before The Trade War Storm?

All is quiet on the American front as the week comes to a close, even as Korea JoongAng Daily reports that a high-ranking Chinese trade official from the Ministry of Finance was spotted at the U.S. Treasury Department headquarters in Washington, D.C. earlier today. The meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials comes on the eve of a trade war shock now ripping across the Pacific, with the Port of Los Angeles set to be the first hit. High-frequency data suggests the impact will begin at some point next week and intensify with each passing week.

On the eve of a trade war shock, data from Port Optimizer—a tracking system used by vessel operators—shows that scheduled import volumes into the Port of Los Angeles are set to begin plunging next week and could collapse by mid-month.

Goldman analyst Jacob Malmstrom has a few charts for us to end the week:

Geopolitical tensions easing leading markets higher for the week but where the effective tariff rate currently is the highest it's been in 100 years.

With globalisation the trade growth has grown substantially in the last 60 year but looking at current U.S. imports from Europe they have hovered around 15% in recent decades.

World trade growth has increased dramatically in the period of globalisation

In markets, Malmstrom warned:

Difficult to come up with a fundamental bull-case from here longer term. Still need to see any of these four conditions met for a sustainable recovery: 1) Attractive valuations ,2) Extreme positioning easing, 3) Policy Support, 4) Sense that the second derivative of growth is improving. When looking at valuations in the U.S. they look more justified when comparing to ROE. Banks sold-off in the beginning of the year but has rebounded whereas Mega-cap tech has continued its decline. Finally earnings so far has been in-line with the historical average. 

Our coverage details the events that have unfolded this month in trigger the trade war shock—one that's already hitting China and is now set to wash ashore momentarily in the U.S.: 

• Amazon Cancels Orders, Walmart Pulls Forecast As Tariffs Take Hold

• Are China Road Traffic Indicators Set To Collapse As Tariff War Cancels Factory Orders

• Chinese Sellers On Amazon Panic After Trump's Tariff Bazooka

• Liberation Day Fallout: China's Port Volumes Sink After Trump's Tariff Blitz

• Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As U.S. Ethane Supply Evaporates

• "Our Export Orders Disappeared": Chinese Factories Shutting Down, Laying Off Workers, FT Finds

• First Tariff Shock Set To Hit Port Of Los Angeles, With Ripple Effects Across The Broader Economy

• Walmart Opens Channel For Battered Chinese Exporters To "Quickly Expand" In Domestic Market

• Trade War Shock Looms For Port Of Los Angeles As Goldman Identifies Most-Impacted Products

High-frequency data from the Port of Los Angeles suggests a substantial impact on Chinese exports to the U.S. will begin next week, mainly due to the lag between factory shutdowns or halted shipments in China—triggered by the 145% tariffs—and the time it takes for containerized freight to cross the Pacific on massive cargo ships.

The bulleted list above outlines what might come next: downward pressure across the trucking industry in Southern California and the Empire Inland warehouse district. As Goldman noted earlier, inventories for many companies are in the 2–3 month range but could be depleted quickly if panic buying sets in once consumers become aware of Port of Los Angeles disruptions. There could even be a short-term spike in inflation this summer, though it would likely prove transitory. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 23:34

Is DOGE Creating A "Master Database" To Track And Deport Illegals?

The Trump Administration's efforts to finally put controls on the illegal immigration crisis made a substantial impact, but many conservatives feel the process is still not moving fast enough.  ICE has arrested and deported an estimated 100,000 -150,000 illegals in the past four months.  This is a far cry from the President's call for 1 million deportations in 2025. 

The true success story has been the southern border - Illegal crossing have plummeted 95% since 2024 and many migrants have chosen to self deport rather than be arrested.  Border encounters are currently at 8000 per month, which Border Patrol officials say is the lowest number since records began in the year 2000 and might be the lowest since 1968.

The true scale of self-deportations, however, is not clear.  This leaves an estimated 17 million illegals still in the US (probably more given Biden's border blitzkrieg since 2021).  A vast majority of these people reside in Democrat run sanctuary states and sanctuary cities where welfare programs are plentiful and protection from federal authorities is assumed.  Without state and federal coordination the ability of the White House to achieve 1 million deportations per year is limited.  

That said, rumors are swirling that Elon Musk and DOGE are building a "Master Database" to track and remove migrants from the country using correlated data obtained from multiple agencies from the IRS to the Health Department to Social Security and beyond.  CNN recently claimed they have multiple sources familiar with the plans, though these sources are not named.    

“If they are designing a deportation machine, they will be able to do that,” a former senior IRS employee with knowledge of the plans told CNN.

The database would also make it easier for the Trump Administration to block illegals from access to public housing and other public programs, which would take away incentives and compel migrants to exit the country.

The idea of data tracking for illegals seems to have a number of Democrats worried.  Democratic lawmakers have slammed the plan, claiming DOGE is “rapidly, haphazardly, and unlawfully” exploiting Americans’ personal data.  But the concept of mass tracking of citizens (rather than illegal migrants) didn't bother Democrats during the pandemic scare.  They fought for years to create a database to track the vaccination status of all Americans.  Why are they suddenly bothered by the notion of a database to track people that are in the country illegally?

It's obvious that the open border policies of the Biden Administration were at least partially intended to secure a voting majority in the near future; expanding the Democrat base by paying off illegal migrants with government subsidies and eventual amnesty.  A number of blue cities and counties have tried to institute voting rights for illegal residents, despite the fact that the media calls immigrant voting a "conspiracy theory".  By extension, the mere presence of millions of illegals in blue states adds to their census numbers, which then translates to more seats in Congress.  

Remove the illegals efficiently and in large enough numbers and the Democratic Party loses leverage in the House.  Is this the reason why activist judges have been obstructing DOGE access to agency data at nearly every turn?  

One could make a case for a "slippery slope" if data collected on a meta-scale was used against legal US citizens (as if this has not already been happening); we all saw how Democrats pushed for such a precedent during Covid and the results would have been disastrous had they gotten what they wanted.  But it's hard to make a case for similar privacy protections for migrants who have broken the law and are, by every measure, foreign invaders.  

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 21:45

Trump: Israel Won't Drag Us Into War With Iran 'But I'll Lead The Pack' If No Deal Made

Iran's top diplomat Abbas Araghchi is in Oman preparing for the next round of nuclear talks with the United States, which will mark the third direct engagement, after President Trump just made an unexpected overture. Trump in a newly published Time interview says he is open to meeting Iran’s supreme leader or president, as the two sides have made clear they are open to achieving peace on the question of the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.

"I think we’re going to make a deal with Iran," Trump said to Time. The US president was then questioned over whether he is open to meeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or President Masoud Pezeshkian, to which he responded: "Sure".

Via Associated Press

Officials involved in the Iran dialogue have presented that "very good progress" has been made. This comes after last month Trump warned that Tehran can choose inking a peace deal or possibly face American bombs. 

"Ultimately I was going to leave that choice to them, but I said I would much prefer a deal than bombs being dropped," Trump described in the interview. "We can make a deal without the attack. I hope we can."

There have been recent reports and fears that Prime Minister Netanyahu is seeking to drag the White House into waging preemptive attack on Iran's nuclear sites.

But Trump has said he's not worried that Israel would drag him into war. But that's when he warned that, "I may go in very willingly if we can't get a deal. If we don't make a deal, I'll be leading the pack."

Below is the key section of the Time interview transcript regarding Israel, Iran and US policy:

You reportedly stopped Israel from attacking Iran's nuclear sites. 

Trump: That's not right. 

It’s not right?

No, it’s not right. I didn’t stop them. But I didn't make it comfortable for them, because I think we can make a deal without the attack. I hope we can. It's possible we'll have to attack because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. But I didn't make it comfortable for them, but I didn't say no. Ultimately I was going to leave that choice to them, but I said I would much prefer a deal than bombs being dropped.

Are you worried Netanyahu will drag you into a war? 

No. 

Let’s talk about some of the issues with universities—

By the way, he may go into a war. But we’re not getting dragged in. 

The U.S. will stay out of it if Israel goes into it? 

No, I didn’t say that. You asked if he’d drag me in, like I’d go in unwillingly. No, I may go in very willingly if we can't get a deal. If we don't make a deal, I'll be leading the pack. 

We detailed before that within the administration there is an emerging divide on Iran between the hawks and those that want a peaceful resolution. It seems Trump has been favoring the doves, also given the obvious negatives of the US getting bogged down in another Middle East quagmire.

On the eve of the 3rd round of US-Iran talks, Trump says negotiations have been “very successful," with a “very positive decision” possible—one that “could save many lives.”

To Time: “We’ll make a deal with Iran. No one else could’ve done this.”

Meet Iran’s leader? “Absolutely" pic.twitter.com/nokJXeOlY0

— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) April 25, 2025

A fresh nuclear deal might also east the pressure facing US naval forces in the Red Sea, amid the ongoing anti-Houthi campaign, given the Houthis have long been considered Tehran's proxies. Better US-Iran relations could serve to silence the missiles and drones over the Red Sea.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 21:20

The Thankless Life Of Elon Musk

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

There’s a Tesla in my neighborhood with a bumper sticker that seems to be begging people not to key the car. “I bought this car before I knew that Elon was crazy,” it says.

Elon Musk looks on during a Cabinet Meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on March 24, 2025. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Fascinating message there. Is it a protest, plea, or both? The car is brilliant, obviously and the guy loves it. But these days, driving a Tesla comes with implied messaging, due entirely to Musk’s political actions.

Elite liberals were buying this car for years as a status symbol of their love of the planet. Then everything changed. Now they are experiencing something like an existential crisis. That’s because a movement has emerged among elites who have turned against it.

Then began a campaign of violence against property. Marauding gangs have attacked dealerships and vigilantes have vandalized cars and trucks all over the country. It’s revealed a point about the political left that has heretofore been only suspected: it harbors a violent streak that is alarming, even terrifying.

This idea that we are what we buy—that our purchases are not just about the products but a judgment for or against the companies that make them—seems rather new as a mass phenomenon. We saw it in the mass consumer boycott of Bud Light.

These violent actions, however, go far beyond a buyers’ boycott. No one in a free enterprise system objects to declining to buy. It’s another matter to lash out at others for their decisions.

The political actions of the CEO dragged the company into a difficult relationship with the main customers of the product. There seems to be no question that this is the reason for the dramatic fall in both sales and the company’s stock price.

EV sales otherwise seem to be on the rise, while Tesla has experienced disproportionate losses at the tail end of a very contentious election followed by the CEO’s actions that have attempted to gut the civil service.

The fall has been so stinging that Elon is stepping back from politics to focus again on bolstering his company and reputation. Certainly he seems to have become less outspoken than he was a few months back. The markets seem to have humbled him into going back to business and staying out of the political muck.

His project called DOGE will live on, and I suspect that he will ultimately be vindicated. For now, however, he is taking it on the chin. His early estimate of saving $2 trillion with cuts kept being pared back given court judgements and impossible bureaucracy. It now stands at $150 billion, much of which will be lost in litigation fees. It’s a terrible realization: if Musk could not do it, even with the full confidence of the U.S. president, can it even be done?

Ever since Musk distinguished himself as the most prominent corporate voice against lockdowns, I’ve paid careful attention to his political migration. He was a conventional corporate liberal not too long ago, say 10 years ago. His experience during COVID changed him. This was when governments around the country and the world said they and they alone would decide which companies would open and which would close. Understandably, he came to believe that civilization was under attack and swore he would do something about it.

He promised to keep his factories open even as the rest of the world was shutting down. He moved his company out of California and his corporate registrations out of Delaware in protest against what was happening. The sudden dawning of his political enlightenment mutated into a serious attack on a range of government and corporate policies that mitigate against merit in hiring and promotion. He turned on “woke”—also in part due to private family struggles that hurt him deeply.

Elon eventually put his money where his mouth was. He decided to buy a heavily censored and deeply propagandistic Twitter and turn it into the much freer X that drove forward public narratives which contributed mightily to Trump’s victory in 2024. In so doing, he fired 4 out of 5 employees in the wildly bloated staff and dramatically changed the platform to become the world’s most popular news and social media application.

Those actions earned him a great deal of influence over policy in the new administration. He was tasked with doing to the government what he had done at Twitter: clean it up, refresh it to become more effective and efficient, and bring some degree of transparency to government finance.

Musk had some success. That said, changing government is much harder than changing a private company over which you are CEO. He has had wide influence within the Trump administration, but not as much as perhaps he had hoped. He wanted budget cuts and worked within established parameters to get them, even fully gutting several terrible sources of corruption like USAID.

My judgment on his role is that Musk’s activities here have been absolutely heroic. He helped restore free speech. He has cleaned up some waste and fraud. He has streamlined some processes of government. He has set a new standard for accounting, personnel, and accounting. DOGE will go on without him.

Also, it is not generally understood how xAI or Grok broke an emergent monopoly in artificial intelligence, shattering OpenAI’s hopes for a monopoly once it let go of its non profit status. Grok made that impossible. Even now, Musk’s Grok AI engine ranks very high in all side-to-side comparisons of AI tools, and certainly excels in its user interface.

Musk is very easily the leader in autonomous driving, which could revolutionize transportation on many fronts. And he does it all with open-source technology.

I’m not a Tesla owner and I’ve written many articles with grave doubts about EVs in general. That said, I’m for consumer choice. If you think he makes a better car, great. Buy it and drive it. He has been very clear, too, that he is against all mandates, subsidies, and even patent protections, which is quite remarkable. In general, I would say that he has behaved throughout with notable scrupulosity.

Further, he threw himself into politics with the best of motives. He wanted to end censorship. He wanted to stop the corruption. He wanted to fix government finances. He has been sincere throughout and performed extraordinary deeds. He was not only not paid for his service; he has been punished financially for what he has done.

This entire episode prompts a kind of reflection on the role of public life, courage, and doing what is right. Musk truly attempted to make a difference. He was courageous. He took on huge financial risks in buying Twitter that seem to have paid off. He risked the status of all of his companies when he threw in with Trump’s campaign. He could have played it safe but chose a different path.

Why did he risk it all? Because he strongly believed it was the right thing to do. This is a beautiful thing to see in our cynical times. There is an element of tragedy in how his sacrifices have not been rewarded but rather punished.

What message does this send to the business culture at large? It says: do not stick your neck out to stand up for what is right. Instead, be more compliant and agreeable with whomever or whatever is in power. That’s the best way to protect the bottom line.

This is an unfortunate signal for business in general. It’s extremely rare that someone so accomplished in enterprise would stand up for what is right and true. He deserves the gratitude of everyone who believes in free speech and freedom generally. Arguably, his actions saved both from grave danger. He was and is paying a heavy price for doing this.

What might he have done differently? He might have some thoughts on that but the general theme is that he did the right thing when it mattered the most. I seriously doubt that he would change anything about his big decisions.

As for the bumper sticker on the Tesla that attacks Musk, it’s truly pathetic, an act of cowardice, whatever the motive. In multiple ways, he has been the benefactor of us all. Is every hero doomed to live a thankless life in these times? Maybe. But they will prevail in the end.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/25/2025 - 20:55