Indian Refineries Run At Up To 108% Capacity On Soaring Diesel Demand

India’s refineries have been running at an unprecedented 105% to 108% capacity utilization in the past six months as demand for diesel soars and international fuel markets tighten amid the ongoing Middle East crisis, OilPrice reports citing Reuters.

Refinery capacity utilization in the world’s third-largest crude oil importer has been between 105% and 108% since the war began, a senior executive at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) said at the APPEC petroleum conference in Singapore on Wednesday.  

“Most of our refiners are complex, ‌can take a wide ‌variety of crude from an API range of something like 16 to 45 or 48,” Nandakumar Pillai, a company director at MRPL, said at the event, as carried by Reuters.

MRPL operates a refinery with the capacity to process 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the coast of India’s southern state of Karnataka. The refinery has a versatile design with complex secondary processing units and high flexibility to process crudes of various API, delivering a variety of quality products, the refiner says.

MRPL will continue to run its refinery at above 100% until March 2027, Pillai told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.

All Indian refiners are currently prioritizing diesel production at the expense of jet fuel amid soaring domestic diesel demand and a crunch in global middle distillate supply.

Diesel prices globally are soaring, and diesel cracks have hit all-time highs as supply remains constrained in the Middle East and Russia, while maximized refinery runs elsewhere cannot offset the supply lost to the U.S.-Iran war and Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries.

The re-escalation in the Middle East and the Russian ban on diesel exports pushed middle distillate cracks to record highs last week.

Analysts have been warning for weeks that diesel and other fuels are the real stress test in the oil markets, not crude oil.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 20:30

Waste Of The Day: Alleged Data Center Fraud

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

The Securities and Exchange Commission paid $10.7 million to store its electronic data at a Maryland facility that was allegedly certified by a company that does not exist.

AiNET Corp. and its former CEO Deepak Jain recently agreed to pay $1.8 million to settle allegations that they violated the False Claims Act by knowingly defrauding the government. The settlement does not contain an admission of guilt.

Key facts: When the SEC began looking for a new data center in 2012, it required applicants to have a Tier III certification. That means the data center is fully operational even when undergoing maintenance.

Jain submitted paperwork to the SEC showing that AiNET had been certified by the company Uptime Council. No such company exists.

The Department of Justice later alleged that Jain wrote the certification letters himself, and that nobody had ever inspected AiNET's data center. Jain allegedly purchased a web domain for Uptime Council to make it appear like a legitimate business.

The name also closely resembled the Uptime Institute, a legitimate company that certifies data center infrastructure.

When SEC employees toured the facility before signing the contract, an AiNET employee allegedly prevented them from viewing infrastructure that would have shown the center did not meet the claimed standards.

The SEC later experienced issues involving security, cooling and power and spent additional money and resources addressing them.

When the SEC requested a new certification in 2017, Jain allegedly drafted another Uptime Council letter stating that the center had been reinspected. Prosecutors claimed no inspection occurred.

The SEC stopped using the facility in 2018. Prosecutors allege that Jain was still advertising the data center's false certification to private customers as of 2024.

Jain's attorneys previously maintained that AiNET fulfilled the contract and that no SEC data was lost or compromised.

Summary: An independent certification is not much of a safeguard when the contractor allegedly creates the certifier himself.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 20:05

"I'd Be Okay With That": Trump Says He's Open To Chinese Automakers Building Cars In US

In comments that most people missed on Friday, President Donald Trump suggested that he's open to letting Chinese automakers build cars on US soil. 

The new cars unloaded from the BYD Changzhou ship at the Zarate Port on the Parana River in Zarate, Buenos Aires Province, Argentina taken on Jan. 19, 2026. Tomas Cuesta / AFP via Getty Images

Speaking with Fox News, Trump said that while he wouldn't allow Chinese cars to operate in the United States because the US market would be overrun - he might be open to manufacturing them here. 

"We don't allow his cars into the United States, and I never did," he said, referring to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, noting that then-President Joe Biden had kept his policies on Chinese cars. 

"If China wanted to come in and open a plant to build their cars here, I'd be okay with that. Japan does it, but they hire our people. The big thing is they hire our people," he continued, adding "What I don't want is them to build in Mexico and just ... build it inexpensively and ship it across the border."

As The Epoch Times notes further, a regulation imposed by the Biden administration in early 2025 effectively bans all Chinese automakers from selling or building passenger vehicles in the United States. Washington also maintains more than 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Trump's remarks came ahead of Xi's planned visit to the United States later this month. The president said on July 23 that he would discuss artificial intelligence with the Chinese leader during the visit. The two leaders last met during Trump's visit to Beijing in May, where Trump formally invited Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, to the White House.

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a Washington-based group representing major U.S. automakers, on Sept. 3 urged Congress to permanently ban the sale, import, and manufacture of Chinese-connected vehicles, hardware, and software before the current congressional session ends.

"Right now, Chinese automakers are dumping subsidized vehicles with connected software and hardware around the world," John Bozzella, the group's president and CEO, said in a letter to the congressional leadership.

Bozzella warned that China is gaining market share in Europe, Australia, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and South America with vehicles that can collect, process, and transmit "sensitive vehicle and consumer data to the Chinese Communist Party."

It hasn't happened yet inside the United States, he said. He urged lawmakers to act quickly, given the scale and urgency of the threat.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 19:40

Minnesota's Open Senate Race Is Suddenly A Coin Flip, New Polls Show

The last time Minnesota voted Republican for president was Richard Nixon in 1972.

The state hasn’t voted for a Republican senator since 2002, when Norm Coleman won a seat he'd lose six years later to Al Franken. Republicans have talked themselves into believing the state might break their way every cycle since, and Minnesota voters have declined to cooperate every time. Barack Obama carried the state by double digits in 2008. Hillary Clinton won it by less than two points in 2016. In 2024, Kamala Harris only won the state by four points, even with home-state Gov. Tim Walz on the ticket.

Despite the those close races, Democrats expected Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-Minn.) to cruise into the open seat. She had to fight for it first. Rep. Angie Craig, the more centrist option, lost the August primary to Flanagan's progressive coalition, built with help from Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). 

According to a fresh survey by Quantus Insights, Flanagan leads 48.2 percent, to Michele Tafoya’s 44.4 percent, a lead within the poll’s margin of error. In terms of public opinion, 50 percent rate Flanagan favorably while 46 percent rate her unfavorably, and 42.4 percent rate Tafoya favorably with 42 percent rating her unfavorably.

Other surveys confirm the race has tightened.

 A poll conducted by TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, surveyed 1,201 likely voters and showed Flanagan leading by only two points, with the independents divided equally between the two candidates at 37% each. 

“Into the home stretch of campaign season, such a tight race in a normally safe Democrat bastion presents a big headache for national party operatives and donors,” writes Steve Cortes, president of the League of American Workers.

“Clearly, they will have to invest heavily to try to convince voters that radical Flanagan belongs in the U.S. Senate.”

According to Cortes, Tafoya is exactly the kind of candidate who can break the Democrats’ winning streak.

“Tafoya represents exactly the kind of candidate that works in this current political and media environment,” he explained.

“A longtime popular sideline football TV reporter, she is known to legions of fans as one of the best, most skilled broadcasters in sports. Tafoya’s superb media skills were honed over decades on camera before truly record-breaking TV audiences.”

 The tightness of these polls is quite remarkable considering the state became ground zero for the administration's expanded immigration enforcement this year. Federal immigration officers fatally shot two American citizens, Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti, during Operation Metro Surge. The shootings turned the city into a flashpoint. However, a slew of state fraud investigations has embarrassed Democratic officials. Gov. Tim Walz’s approval ratings are also underwater, with 46% disapproving and 42% approving.

Despite the closeness of these polls, prediction markets haven't gotten the memo yet.

Polymarket shows Flanagan's odds of winning above 90%, with Tafoya at under 10%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 19:20

John Brennan Subpoenaed As Part Of DOJ Investigation

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

An attorney for John Brennan on Sept. 14 said the former CIA director was subpoenaed to testify next month before a grand jury as part of a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into whether former intelligence and law enforcement officials illegally conspired against President Donald Trump.

In a court filing submitted to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, attorney Kenneth L. Wainstein confirmed that Brennan was asked by a federal prosecutor this past week to testify before a federal grand jury in Fort Pierce, Florida, on Oct. 15.

Wainstein said in a declaration to the court that he and other Brennan attorneys participated in a conference call with several prosecutors to discuss the grand jury subpoena for Brennan. DOJ senior attorney Kurt Olsen indicated to the defense team that there are several "viable" investigations into Brennan, Wainstein said.

That includes the one in Fort Pierce that includes "issues at Mar-a-Lago and beyond" regarding whether Trump "had his civil rights violated," he wrote.

Paraphrasing Olsen, Wainstein added that he was told of an "additional investigation relating only to Director Brennan's statements before Congress in the District of Columbia" and that Brennan is being targeted in a narrower investigation that Olsen described as being "still viable."

"The issues in the narrower investigation might also be part of the larger investigation," Wainstein wrote, also referring to what Olsen said.

The subpoena was delivered on the same day that Joe diGenova, the prosecutor who had been leading the collusion investigation, resigned from the department.

"It was an honor and privilege to serve the president and the department," diGenova said, declining to give details on why he stepped down.

His inquiry investigated the 2017 U.S. intelligence finding that Russia sought to boost Trump's first presidential campaign in 2016. It also probed later inquiries by former special counsel Jack Smith, including Trump's retention of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort and his challenge of the 2020 election results.

No criminal charges have emerged from the Florida investigation.

While speaking to Politico, diGenova suggested that he does not want to move quickly on any case he's involved in.

"I take my time when I bring cases," diGenova said. "Whatever the facts show, they show. However long that takes to do it properly, it takes. Sometimes it takes longer than some people want, and they want things done faster, and that's just not possible sometimes. So, as a result, there are disagreements about timing, and that happens all the time in the Department of Justice."

Brennan has denied any wrongdoing. His lawyers sued the DOJ in July, asking a court to force officials to preserve documents tied to the investigations.

His lawsuit said the department had undertaken grand jury work in recent months but had not formally indicted Brennan. His legal team alleged in a filing that "this Administration has adopted a policy of using criminal process and prosecution to punish the President's perceived adversaries."

In the Monday court filing, Wainstein indicated that he got a grand jury subpoena that was signed by diGenova and wrote emails to him before he resigned from the position.

Brennan served as President Barack Obama's CIA head from 2013 to 2017, and he is now a commentator for NBC News and MSNBC. Since Trump's rise to political prominence, Brennan has frequently used his commentary to criticize the president.

The DOJ did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Monday.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 19:15

US Data Centers To Burn More Natural Gas Than Most Nations

Several weeks ago, we explained why most data center developers favor on-site gas power: it boiled down to two main reasons - availability (especially since modular nuclear power for commercial 'behind the meter' use is still in the distant future) and price. Furthermore, a recent BloombergNEF analysis shows the marginal cost of operating an on-site gas plant may be below industrial electricity tariffs, making continued generation from on-site assets the cheaper option in many cases. 

As we discussed in late August, marginal generation costs depend on fuel prices and variable operating expenses. BloombergNEF modeled the marginal cost of operating engines, turbines and fuel cells at a mid-scenario gas price of $3.97 per million British thermal units. Gas engines, such as ones manufactured by Wartsila and INNIO, have the highest marginal cost, at $43.2 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Fuel cells, most prominently procured from Bloom Energy, are the cheapest to continue running, at $21.5/MWh, benefiting from high thermal efficiencies and the lowest variable operational cost.  

It appears that none of this was lost on US data centers, and the result has been an explosion of nat gas use to power the domestic data center industry which in turn is critical to keep the AI bubble afloat. 

Which brings us to another key data point: according to a new outlook from BloombergNEF, data centers in the United States will consume more natural gas than most countries within a decade.

Gas consumption to produce electricity for data centers is expected to grow by 15 billion cubic feet per day in the ten years to 2035, even accounting for many currently planned projects never being built, BloombergNEF said. That’s more gas than is currently consumed by all nations except China, Russia, Iran and the US itself, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. It’s also more than double BloombergNEF’s previous forecast in December of 6.9 billion cubic feet per day.

The report is the latest illustration of how the future of AI is intertwined with the burning of vast amounts of fossil fuels, tying Big Tech’s ambitions to those of the legacy oil and gas industry, and why - as we discussed over the weekend - a Democratic win in the midterm elections will make life for data center developers a socialist hell. 

The abundance and low cost of producing natural gas in the US, combined with gas power plants’ ability to quickly ramp up and down as needed by 24/7 data centers, are a key part of why the fuel is expected to supply 69% of the power needed by new grid-connected data centers in BloombergNEF’s forecast.

The wave of new projects powering the AI boom makes the power sector the second-largest driver of US gas demand in the decade through 2035, just behind the demand growth of new liquefied natural gas export terminals entering service on the US Gulf Coast, according to the outlook. Power-sector gas consumption is expected to increase to 54 billion cubic feet per day by 2035, up by 18 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, while gas demand from LNG exports rises by 21 billion cubic feet per day.

Of course, given the uncertainty of how the AI boom will play out over the next decade, the “error bars” undergirding BloombergNEF’s forecast for data center gas consumption are “fairly large — both to the upside and the downside, frankly,” said Henry Eaton, a gas market analyst at BloombergNEF and the lead author of the report. “Our power demand estimates are definitely not low, but they’re not the highest on the Street.”

That said, the soaring, simultaneous gas needs of AI data centers and LNG export plants pose “a complex challenge for domestic gas producers,” which are currently projected to raise gas output by 35 billion cubic feet per day between 2025 and 2035 but will need to produce an additional 11 billion cubic feet per day to meet forecasted demand, according to the outlook. Failing that, nat gas prices will be the next to surge.

BloombergNEF’s report adds to the growing bullish chorus around US natural gas because of the data center and LNG build-out, alongside fears that some of the highest-quality acreage in major US gas fields could become depleted as operators drill it more aggressively.

Citing those same factors, Wood Mackenzie in July declared “the decade of cheap Henry Hub gas is coming to an end,” referring to the pipeline trading hub in Louisiana that sets the US benchmark for natural gas. The analyst firm projected power-sector gas demand to rise by 17 billion cubic feet per day “by the mid-2030s,” nearly identical to BloombergNEF’s forecast of 18 billion cubic feet per day.

Wood Mackenzie’s outlook was followed by a viral interview with Chronometer Holdings LLC Founder Matthew Smith, who predicted that by the end of the decade, “you’re going to start to see a knife fight to secure natural gas.”

“The biggest losers of this will be US consumer,” Smith said in the video interview which was seen over 1.6 million times on X and was hotly contested by some in the industry.

“I couldn’t disagree more with Matt’s view,” Ben Dell, managing partner of co-founder of investment firm Kimmeridge Energy Management Co., wrote in response to Smith’s dire outlook. While the US gas market will see “considerable demand growth” from LNG and data centers, ample undeveloped acreage within US gas fields help to explain how the gas industry “has consistently met the demand while lowering costs on an inflation adjusted basis.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 18:50

Paramount Threatens California Exit That Could Cost State Billions

Paramount could pull nearly 58,000 jobs and $21 billion in annual economic activity out of California if the company follows through on a threat to relocate its headquarters and operations amid an antitrust fight over its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, according to a preliminary economic analysis from the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.'s (LAEDC) Institute for Applied Economics, which was obtained by Politico.

If no resolution is achieved, Paramount has threatened to begin moving its headquarters and thousands of jobs out of the state starting Oct. 1, 2026, with Georgia, Tennessee and Texas floated as possible destinations.

The threat traces back to a lawsuit that California Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) and eleven other Democratic state attorneys general filed on July 13 to permanently block the Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger under the Clayton Act. Their complaint argued the combined company would reduce competition in wide-release theatrical films, in the market for anticipated top-grossing pictures, and in the licensing of basic cable channels.

The lawsuit came after the Justice Department had reached the opposite conclusion in June, closing its own investigation without filing suit and finding the deal unlikely to harm competition in streaming, linear television, or theatrical film production and distribution.

The LAEDC report makes it clear that California's economy would suffer huge losses if Paramount decided to move out of state. Apart from the 28,990 and 57,980 potential full-time jobs that would disappear, California would also see annual economic output decline somewhere between $10.6 billion and $21.2 billion. Annual state and local tax revenue would also drop by about $585 million.

This is, however, a worst-case scenario based on LAEDC assumptions, not a definite forecast, since Paramount does not publicly break down its operating expenses or employment by state.

Even the more conservative scenario still involves a heavy loss. Even a slower, partial retreat tied to merger-related ticking fees and financing costs totaling roughly $1.88 billion, spread over five years, could still result in the state losing 550 to 1,110 job-years each year and between $202.7 million and $405.4 million in annual economic output.

The merger agreement requires Paramount to pay additional amounts to Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders, called ticking fees, if the transaction is not completed by September 30. From October 1 onwards, the LAEDC sets the fees at about $7 million per day, so each week of legal proceedings becomes a separate charge. As a partial gesture to resolve the issue, Paramount has promised to make 30 theatrical releases each year from the combined company. This pledge the LAEDC believes could result in between 1,020 and 2,760 job-years and between $377.7 million and $1.01 billion in economic output throughout the state over a five-year period.

It's unclear whether this proposal will persuade Bonta's office.

For now, Bonta isn't backing down on his public messaging. "California is the fourth largest economy in the world and the best place to do business," his office said, adding, "Strong antitrust enforcement is essential so everyone can benefit from a vibrant economy."

"When companies create a monopoly and illegally use that power to get out of negotiating, that hurts our economy, it hurts Californians, it makes things more expensive, and it makes things worse," Bonta's office said.

Steve Hilton, the Republican candidate for governor, has made this dispute a campaign talking point, calling the lawsuit "totally politically motivated" last month and saying he would "use whatever power I have to discourage any litigation that would be destructive to California, including this one."

Hilton has also framed Paramount as one data point in a broader exodus. "There's always something, because the people in charge of California are just running this state into the ground," he said on Real America's News last month, adding that business owners tell him on the trail they're "hanging on till November" and will leave if the state's political direction doesn't change. "I think that we are heading for economic collapse in California," he said. He also predicted the recent trickle of departures "is going to turn into a stampede" without a course correction.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 18:00

Court Rejects DOE Order To Delay Michigan Coal Plant Retirement

By Ethan Howland of UtilityDive

A federal appeals court on Friday vacated the Department of Energy’s emergency order requiring the owners of a coal-fired power plant in Michigan to delay its planned retirement, saying the move usurped state authority over generating resources.

“The federal government has, until now, issued stopgap generation orders in response only to transitory emergencies caused by war, extreme weather events, market manipulation, or unplanned, short-term unavailability of specific generation units,” the U.S. Appeals Court for the District of Columbia Circuit said in its ruling. 

Consumers Energy’s 1,420-MW, coal-fired J.H. Campbell power plant in West Olive, Mich. The U.S. Appeals Court for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled on Sept, 11, 2026, that the U.S. Department of Energy overstepped its authority when it ordered Consumers to delay retiring the power plant

“It is the states — informed by federal, regional, and load-serving entities’ assessments of available supply and reliability needs — that bear the responsibility to plan for and avert reliability risks on an ongoing basis,” the court added, noting that the Michigan Public Service Commission and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator had approved the plant’s retirement after extensive reviews.

The suit was brought by Earthjustice, which represented the Sierra Club and Urban Core Collective. Also, the Michigan attorney general argued the case for Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota. Other petitioners included the Natural Resources Defense Council, Michigan Environmental Council, Environmental Defense Fund, Environmental Law and Policy Center, Vote Solar, the Ecology Center and the Union of Concerned Scientists.

The court found that the DOE lacked the authority under the Federal Power Act’s section 202(c) to order Consumers Energy to run its majority-owned, 1,420-MW J.H. Campbell power plant past its May 31, 2025, retirement date.

Under section 202(c), an “emergency” means a grid reliability risk that calls for immediate action by DOE — a condition that wasn’t met in the case of the Campbell power plant, the court said.

The court said it was unpersuaded by DOE’s “sweeping conception” of its emergency authority under the FPA’s section 202(c). 

“The Department’s position would empower it to pick its preferred power sources in Michigan — or, presumably, any other state — and order them to operate without regard to the multiple procedural and substantive constraints built into state reliability planning processes,” the court said.

Section 202(c) gives the DOE a “limited backstop mechanism” to address certain electricity supply emergencies, the court said.

“Contrary to DOE’s position, ... the complexity and advance planning that go into states’ assurances of resource adequacy do not imply that DOE must have vast, top-down emergency power to pick its favorite generators to run at all costs,” the court said. “The Department’s reading of ‘emergency’ invites frequent federal interventions that are unsupported by the statute and threaten the stability of the energy market.”

The DOE justified its order keeping the Campbell plant online by citing “fragments” of two documents and a MISO presentation it said showed that the region faced an emergency, the court noted. 

The decision is among the first amid various legal challenges to DOE orders keeping fossil-fueled power plants from retiring to reach a court decision. Generally, the department has argued the plants needed to keep running due to the medium- to long-term potential for electric supply shortfalls.

Since the DOE issued its first 90-day order keeping the Campbell power plant from retiring, it has issued similar orders affecting six other power plants — all but one of which is coal-fired. DOE has reissued all the orders before they were set to expire.

Through June 30, the net cost of complying with the DOE emergency orders was $259 million, after applying MISO revenues of $239 million, Consumers said in a July 28 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

“The court rebuked the Trump administration’s abuse of emergency powers,” Michael Lenoff, an Earthjustice attorney, said in a press release.

“The DOE needs to stay in its lane and use its emergency powers only in actual emergencies. Preventing the market-driven retirements of coal plants to advance a coal-friendly agenda is not a proper use of emergency powers.”

The DOE could appeal the court’s ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court.

“The Energy Department’s emergency orders, including at Campbell, prevented blackouts and likely saved hundreds of lives during peak capacity events this past year,” a DOE spokesperson said in an email.

The DOE’s emergency orders were “essential” for keeping the lights on during Winter Storm Fern in January, according to the spokesperson. At the peak of the bitter cold, coal-fired generation in affected regions increased 25% compared to the same time last year, and the Campbell plant operated at over 650 MW every day between Jan. 21 and Feb. 1, they said.

“The Department of Energy will continue to protect and defend energy security for all Americans,” the spokesperson said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 17:40

Bitcoin Jumps As CLARITY Act Odds Surge In Prediction Markets

Bitcoin is sharply higher, ignoring the meltdown in gold and other dollar-sensitive assets, on a surge in prediction market optimism that Washington may finally pass a crypto market structure bill, with odds rising to multi-week highs on Monday and Polymarket.

Polymarket bettors put the chance that the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year at nearly 30% Monday morning, up from just 12% earlier in September. That’s the highest level since early August, according to the event contract’s dashboard.

As a reminder the Senate is scheduled to hold a crucial procedural cloture vote on the crypto-focused Clarity Act on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, at approximately 2:15 p.m. ET. The bill requires 60 votes to advance.

Overnight, Senate Republicans released the "final" draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which they said incorporates "substantive changes" requested by Democrats, the Block reported. President Trump was also reported to have agreed to ethics restrictions in the bill that would limit crypto-related dealings by officials and their spouses.

Stablecoin rewards, previously a key sticking point in negotiations, also appear to have been addressed.

Under the latest draft, the Treasury secretary would have authority to impose a circuit-breaker on stablecoin rewards for up to 18 months after enactment, if stablecoins were deemed to be driving substantial deposit outflows from community banks.

Following the draft's release, market-implied odds of the bill passing this year rose from 22% to 30% on Polymarket.

Additionally, traders put the odds of passage before July 1 at 53%, versus 30% Thursday, after the contract briefly surged to 69%. The chance of legislation becoming law before April most recently stood at at 45%, roughly double Thursday's 23%.

Bessent helped with a post on X:

"I’ve said many times that the CLARITY Act is essential to ensuring America wins the global race for new technology.

That’s the reason Congress passed the GENIUS Act: to ensure that stablecoin infrastructure, a revolutionary financial technology, will be built in America..."

While markets clearly show traders see a clearer path for crypto legislation ahead of Tuesday's key procedural vote in the Senate, there's still plenty of road between a favorable vote and a presidential signature.

According to CoinDesk, Tuesday's Senate cloture vote requires 60 senators, forcing the measure to draw bipartisan support. Clearing that threshold would be an important political milestone, but it would not amount to final Senate passage. 

Lawmakers could still face a lengthy amendment process of the bill. Any changes would also have to be reconciled with the House before legislation could head to the president, while the congressional calendar adds another source of uncertainty.

The next move belongs to the Democrats, because this wasn't a negotiated package, one analyst said.

Jaret Sieberg, a financial policy analyst for TD Cowen, said the Democratic lawmakers may not see enough here to justify getting on board, so he maintained a 25% chance of Clarity Act passage on Monday.

"We are not convinced the updated ethics language Senate Republicans released last night is substantive enough for moderate Democrats," he wrote in a note to clients.

The problems for Democrats: President Trump would still be able to maintain his crypto investments, even if they're structured in a blind trust, so it doesn't sever him from the industry he has such an influence on. And the powers for state attorneys general to sue remain very narrow, with no direct actions possible against the president. Also, Trump would tout a yes vote as a major personal victory, Sieberg said, potentially carrying a political cost for the November elections.

On the positive side, Sieberg noted, the changes could give Democrats a little more political cover if they wanted to support the bill, and bankers may feel more comfortable with it because of the extra protections it gives their deposit accounts from customers running to stablecoins.

He said that because the administration hasn't yet offered Democrat nominations to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, those could be offered up to sweeten the deal in a final negotiation.

And while the odds of Clarity act passage have failed to rise above 50%, even the modest move observed was enough to push bitcoin up nearly $2000 to just shy of $80K, the highest since Friday's post-CPI "band aid" response.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 17:20

EPA Poised To Scrap Power Plant Carbon Standards

By Robin Lawrence, of UtilityDive

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin is expected to formally rescind carbon pollution standards for fossil fuel power plants today, according to multiple media reports.

The repeal would complete the Trump administration’s elimination of climate policies enacted under the Obama and Biden administrations and could prevent future administrations from regulating greenhouse gases emissions from power plants, according to The New York Times.

Climate Mayors and C40 Cities are among the municipal and environmental groups that have opposed the repeal, which the EPA first proposed in June 2025. “GHG emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants contribute significantly to costly and detrimental fiscal and public health impacts for cities across the United States,” the groups, along with the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, stated in an Aug. 7, 2025, letter to the EPA. 

The Mount Storm Power Station, a coal-fired power plant in West Virginia, on July 13, 2026

The EPA has initiated rollbacks of greenhouse gas emissions standards since President Donald Trump took office. Environmental groups and local governments have filed multiple lawsuits attempting to halt the actions.

In September 2025, EPA proposed a rule to end the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which requires over 8,000 facilities and suppliers in the U.S. to report their greenhouse gas emissions annually.

Twelve cities and counties joined a coalition of 24 states in a March lawsuit challenging the EPA’s repeal of its 2009 endangerment finding, the underpinning for greenhouse gas regulation under the Clean Air Act.

Also in March, a coalition of 21 states and local governments filed a lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s repeal of the 2024 Mercury and Air Toxics Standards Rule. That lawsuit also challenges EPA’s rollback of real-time continuous emissions monitoring at power plants, alleging it violates the Clean Air Act.

In their August 2025 comments opposing the EPA’s repeal of power plant greenhouse gas emissions standards, Climate Mayors, C40 and the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia Law School said that cities nationwide “rely on the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards to help protect them from costly and dangerous impacts to infrastructure and public health, and to augment their work to mitigate and adapt to climate change.”

The most acute effects of greenhouse gas emissions are often felt in cities, the letter states. “Moreover, federal regulation of power sector GHG emissions not only reduces emissions from regulated power plants, but also has the indirect effect of reducing emissions from other sectors that use electricity, including the building and transportation sectors, which are the top two sources of GHG emissions in U.S. cities,” the groups state. 

EPA estimated last year that repealing emission guidelines and carbon capture requirements would save the power sector about $1.2 billion a year, and repealing 2024 amendments to mercury emissions standards would save power plants about $120 million a year.  

When it issued the standards in May 2024, EPA found that the regulations would deliver $370 billion in net benefits over two decades, the Institute for Policy Integrity at the New York University School of Law said.

“The Supreme Court has made clear that EPA has an obligation to control greenhouse gas emissions from power plants under the Clean Air Act,” Dena Adler, senior attorney at the Institute for Policy Integrity, said in an emailed statement Monday. “The power sector is the second-largest U.S. greenhouse gas emitter. Leaving this pollution unchecked ignores the Supreme Court, puts the public at risk, and flagrantly violates EPA’s legal responsibilities.”

The EPA has not responded to a request for comment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 17:10

"Everyone Is Retarded And Nothing Works...": Kunstler's Theory Of Everything

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Clusterfuck Nation,

A Theory Of Everything

"The Thing That Never Happens Keeps Happening."

- Kyle Becker on X

"Everyone is retarded and nothing Works."

Turns out that's the key to unlock the mystery of this particular Fourth Turning, the one here and now, of our own time. It's an excellent theory of everything happening these days, formulated by a close colleague of mine. And as far as I know, it's the only theory that makes sense. It explains, for example how and why consulting US attorney Joe DiGenova quit the grand jury investigation, as conducted by the DOJ in the Southern District of Florida (SDFL), of the treasonous conspiracy against the people of the USA running since 2016.

The most amazing part is that apparently no one in the country seems to give a shit about it. No politician has issued a statement. The blog-o-sphere, Twitter-sphere are mute. The President himself - the main target of the coup - was busy in Ireland this weekend. But let's face it: he has a duty to steer clear of interfering in juridical proceedings involving himself and his office.

The most diligent investigator of all, Dan Bongino, the podcaster who spent years documenting the serial turpitudes of RussiaGate, ImpeachmentGate, the 2020 election, the J-6 operation, and so on, who wrote several books about these crimes - and then became Deputy FBI director for a year, with access to the entire trove of evidence about all of it - says nothing now about the DiGenova affair. How is that possible? Instead, for months he's just played an insipid cheerleader on his daily podcast. Just imagine what Bongino really knows. Months ago, when he resigned from the FBI job, he stated publicly that what he saw in the J. Edgar Hoover building shocked him to his core.

I say all this because it looks like the case (or cases) in the SDFL will now go nowhere with diGenova out of the picture. Altogether, it was the gravest set of treasonous crimes against the Republic in our history, and nobody will be held accountable for it, a monumental insult following a possibly fatal injury to the country.

A certain amount of informed scuttlebutt comes my way, and the story I hear is that Joe DiGenova was of a mind to indict former president Barack Obama for his role in many phases of the ongoing coup, and that Todd Blanche blanched at that, in fear of provoking an even hotter civil war than the Red / Blue one currently raging from sea to shining sea (and especially in the three branches of government). Not just a civil war but, in effect, a civil race war, for fear of painting America's only black president a criminal.

Mr. Obama enjoys certain immunities against criminal prosecution for official actions he took as president - as determined in the SCOTUS decision Trump v. the United States, July, 2024 - but the parameters of what, exactly, official means remains squishy. The boundaries would have to be tested case-by-case in the lower courts. Which is what the grand juries sitting now in Florida might have done (or might yet somehow manage to do).

Was it an official act for Mr. Obama to turn Hillary Clinton's Russian Collusion campaign stunt into a seditious operation to run Mr. Trump out of office? Once Mr. Obama was out of office in 2017, did he direct continuing seditions through FBI director Wray and CIA directors Mike Pompeo and Gina Haspel? Does a record of correspondence exist, classified or otherwise? We know that the intel apparatus captures everything. Tulsi Gabbard might know what's in there. Perhaps the same things that shocked Dan Bongino to his core.

Once "Joe Biden" was installed in the Oval Office, did Barack Obama direct the cabal that actually ran the executive branch from Jan., 2021, to Jan., 2025 - did he act as a shadow president? What would the law say about that? And is he responsible for "Joe Biden's" ruinous policies such as the wide-open border and all it has entailed. One of Mr. Obama's closest insiders, John Podesta (also Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign chairman), became "senior advisor for climate policy" in the final months of "Joe Biden's" term. He was given $370-billion from the fraudulently-named "Inflation Reduction Act" to distribute as he saw fit, and an awful lot of it landed in Democratic Party adjacent NGOs. Was private citizen Obama involved in arranging any of that?

Is Barack Obama, the 44th President of the US, a true villain? He was a very slick performer during the eight years he was president. But now, the political faction he led - maybe still leads because, look around, who else is there? - has gone batshit crazy since his second term ended. His party beat a path straight into the overt advocacy of communism with a jihad cherry on top, and you don't hear him complaining about any of it.

What I hear is that Joe DiGenova intended to subpoena Barack Obama to give testimony to that Florida federal grand jury and that Todd Blanche nixed it, so Joe quit. The next day, diGenova told the media that if the Florida team is "allowed to do their jobs" they will "succeed supremely" and that the U.S. Attorney's office there was doing a "phenomenal job under the worst of circumstances." He later added, there was "plenty of evidence" but it "just takes time."

Whatever that means.

Yet everybody knows what went down in our country the past ten years, that a vicious blob called the Deep State has been running a continuous coup, just as everybody with half-a-brain knows exactly what Covid-19 was about.

The question that remains: does having half-a-brain mean you're retarded, and does that explain why nothing works in the USA, including the ability to manage the nation's justice apparatus?

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 16:20

Supertanker Explodes After Hitting Mine, IRGC Says, & Asserts 'Strait Of Hormuz Is Closed' Summary

• IRGC says supertanker exploded after hitting mine in Hormuz, says strait remains closed.
• 'Deal' headlines return: US seeks "Step-by-Step" agreement with Iran, reports state media.
• Houthis seized more Red Sea territory, including Perim Island near the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
• Iran-Gulf diplomacy was postponed, delaying efforts to address the Strait of Hormuz crisis in what was to be a rare GCC-Iran meeting.
• Saudi oil exports face ongoing disruption after a pipeline shutdown, pushing oil prices above $100/barrel.

//--> //--> //--> Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?
Yes 5% · No 95%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

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Supertanker Explodes After Hitting Mine: IRGC

Iran's IRGC Navy has late Monday (local) announced that a foreign supertanker exploded when it struck naval mines after attempting to enter an unapproved zone of the southern Strait of Hormuz, Fars reports.

Bloomberg also picked up the reported tanker explosion, providing the following further details:

• Efforts to contain the blaze have been unsuccessful, leaving the vessel engulfed in flames, Fars says
• The statement identified the vessel as the supertanker EL GAIA, with IMO number 9325336
• “Warnings had previously been issued regarding the dangers of this illegal passage”
• “IRGC Navy decisively declares that the Strait of Hormuz is closed”

If the emerging reports are accurate, it contradicts President Trump's recent claims that the strait has been fully de-mined. Reuters in late August noted of a Truth Social post that the president proclaimed "all mines ‌had been detonated or removed from international waters of the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran has been told that any ship ​or boat placing new mines will be ​destroyed."

The IRGC Navy stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and under its control.
The supertanker “Algaya” (IMO 9325336) was attempting to navigate through a restricted area south of the Strait of Hormuz when it reportedly struck sea mines and exploded. pic.twitter.com/naPVOfazqo

— IRNA News Agency ☫ (@IrnaEnglish) September 14, 2026

Oil Drops on Return of 'US Seeks Deal' Headlines

Just as President Trump is appearing to show some desperation concerning soaring energy prices ahead of the midterm elections, and amid growing Republican angst, we witness a return to the 'a deal could return' style headlines which marked earlier phases of the war:

US seeks "Step-by-Step" agreement with Iran, reports ILNA citing Pakistani sources

• As the war and US pressure against Iran continue, Washington's efforts to reach a "step-by-step" agreement with Tehran; a scenario that could be a prelude to the US entering the path of negotiations, without abandoning military and economic pressure.

And the all too familiar pattern that marked early summer...

OIL DROPS TO INTRADAY LOW, BRENT TRADES NEAR $106 A BARREL

Iranian state media is meanwhile suggesting that Washington interfered in what was a planned meeting between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council states (GCC) toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That meeting, which was supposed to happen Monday, was postponed indefinitely - after reports said the Saudis sought to add something untenable to a draft agreement. Tehran is still rejecting that it is 'seeking' new talks with Washington.

Hey @grok, since February 28, 2026, how many times has Our Favorite President said Iran is asking, begging, pleading, or desperate to "make a deal" -- whether on Truth Social, interviews, speeches, press scrums, sitting at his desk in the Oval Office, or any other format pic.twitter.com/E01vUBJG3I

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) September 14, 2026

Trump has issued several provocative Truth Social posts throughout the morning...

The next weeks could possibly see a return to Axios' 'negotiations imminent' WH leak tactics, to artificially keep energy prices under control...

Stocks just spiked on this:

US seeks "step-by-step" agreement with Iran, a scenario that could be a prelude to the US entering the path of negotiations, without abandoning military and economic pressure: ILNA reports citing Pakistani sources.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 14, 2026

Meanwhile and important indicator of where things actually stand...

#Iran has no plans for talks under current circumstances. As emphasized in the conditions announced to the US, there will be no talks & the Strait of #Hormuz will not be reopened until the war on all fronts ends, the blockade is lifted & Iran's financial resources are released.

— Mohammad Ghaderi | محمد قادری (@ghaderi62) September 14, 2026

Yemen's Houthis Attack Saudi Base, And Take Fire After Major Conquest

Yemen's Ansar Allah -- also known as the Houthis -- claimed it fired drones and missiles at King Khalid Air Base in southern Saudi Arabia. Dozens of ballistic missiles and drones targeted military infrastructure in the rare and major cross-border attack.

The Houthis say the base suffered direct hits and extensive damage in a "large-scale military operation", though this could not be immediately verified, after the operation which their military spokesman described as retaliation more than 300 Saudi airstrikes across Yemen over most of the past week. Early reports from open source analysts suggest serious damage sustained at the base.

The sprawling base in Khamis Mushait has historically been used at times by US and UK advanced fighter jets, and has hangars that are well-fortified, though it's unknown the degree to which Western assets continue to be stationed there. For example, it was heavily utilized by the Pentagon during the first Gulf War, from where stealth fighters were launched to attack high priority targets in Iraq.

A Houthi spokesman has declared that the ongoing mission's targeting includes "weapons depots and command and control centers that are managing the aggression against our nation and people."

On Sunday, the internationally recognized Yemeni government -- which controls neither the capital nor territory encompassing a majority of the population -- said its air force launched three strikes on Houthi positions in the Taiz region. There were also reports of artillery fire on a Houthi stronghold in Saada province, on the northern border with Saudi Arabia.

Via Institute for the Study of War

In a blitz that caught the world by surprise, the Houthis late last week achieved an enormous strategic victory by conquering the remainder of Yemen's western coastline it didn't already control -- positioning it to easily enforce its declared blockade against Saudi-related shipping entering or leaving the Red Sea via the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Houthi soldiers also took over Perim Island, which sits in the strait. 

As Associated Press noted, the seizure of the new territory puts the Houthis in much closer proximity to US forces: 

The Houthis’ advance puts them just 20 miles (32 kilometers) from the U.S. military base in Djibouti, on the other side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It’s the main U.S. base in Africa and one of several foreign military bases in Djibouti, including those of China, France and Japan.

The Houthi blockade is positioned as retaliation for the Saudi coalition's siege and blockade of Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. Though the Houthi blockade only targets Saudi shipping, global cargo lines are highly wary of transiting the waterway that's narrower than the Strait of Hormuz. Many are rerouting traffic all the way around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, which requires at least 20 extra days and a lot more money. “Freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb are safe and orderly,” a Houthi official told Al Jazeera. 

While it's too little, too late for Riyah's hopes of some kind of big Washington intervention in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday met US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper in Jeddah, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) has confirmed. Likely they reviewed the coalition's narrowing options going forward, but President Trump has thus far expressed reluctance to get directly involved militarily, at a moment he's still trying to figure out what's next with Iran.

Iran Diplomacy Postponed

Cold water has been thrown on flickering hopes for finding an exit from the latest and most dangerous chapter in America's "endless wars," as a highly-anticipated Monday summit of Iran and other Persian Gulf states was postponed.

That bad news follows an eventful several days that saw Yemen's Iran-allied Ansar Allah take control of a large swath of strategic coastside territory. Saudi Arabia's critical east-west pipeline, shut down after a drone attack that originated in Iraq, may be the center of a major hit to global oil supply. 

The Monday meeting was set to take place in the Omani coastal city of Salalah, with attendees including foreign ministers of Iran, Oman, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar. Taking a US-friendly line, Bahrain had declined to attend, saying stability "cannot be preserved through a policy of appeasement” and demanding the strait be re-opened without "discrimination, fees or permits." The tiny state that is was home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet also cited its ongoing suspension of diplomatic relations with Iran.   

The meeting was going to focus on a proposed arrangement by which Iran and Oman would jointly manage the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the vital waterway is at a near standstill, more than six months after the United States and Israel launched a war on Iran. Axios' Barak Ravid, seen by many as a conduit for US-Israeli narratives, reported that Saudi Arabia had submitted amendments to the proposal. 

Saudi Arabia: I have an amendment to the strait of Hormuz agreement

Iran & Oman: pic.twitter.com/MVyRmhjxnN https://t.co/mRYxyyWrWD

— Nostra, House of Gold (@Nostre_damus) September 13, 2026

“At the request of some regional countries and by a joint decision of Oman and Iran, the meeting of foreign ministers of Persian Gulf coastal states, which was planned for Monday, has been postponed to another date,” Iranian foreign ministry official Mohammad Ali Bak told Iran's IRNA. If the meeting comes to fruition, it would be the first one to convene top diplomats from Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council since the war started on Feb 28. 

Previously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said attendees would be presented with route maps and other details about how ships would enter and depart the strait. Importantly, he emphasized that the proposal was not sufficient to actually reopen the strait. 

Closure of Saudi Pipeline Set To Remove 4% of Global Supply

A different lifeline was completely closed over the weekend, with no end in sight: Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline was shut down after a devastating attack on a pumping station that seemingly originated with Shiite militias in Iraq. The pipeline was playing a vital role in offsetting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, by sending oil to Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port on the Red Sea.  

Yemen’s Houthis said they struck King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait with dozens of ballistic missiles and drones, targeting hangars, radars, runways and ammunition depots.

They said the attack was retaliation for more than 300 Saudi airstrikes on Yemen over the past five… pic.twitter.com/zt8y1wli4u

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 14, 2026

Saudi oil traders told Reuters that, unless the pipeline is opened up within days, the kingdom will run out of export stock, removing as much as 4% of worldwide supply from the market. Even before the pipeline-pumping station attack, Saudi inventory had plummeted to its lowest level in 30 years.  

Though Saudi Arabia initially called the closure a mere "precautionary measure," some observers have very little optimism about a quick resumption of pipeline flow. One source told Reuters it could take five to six weeks to repair. If you'd imagined the pumping station some small facility, this image should give you a proper orientation to what must be restored "in a few days" to avert a major disruption of global supply:

Overnight, West Texas Intermediate futures leapt by 2.89% to $102.94 a barrel. Brent was up almost as much, trading at $107.56. 

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 15:59

"Dead Mall" Era Ends As Shoppers Return, Values Surge And Sector Leads CRE Revival

The "malls are dead" narrative gained traction in corporate media coverage in 2016 and 2017 and lasted until 2022.

Those headlines reflected the strain across the sector as excess retail space, department-store closures, and shifting consumer habits led to widespread low occupancy and cratering property values.

But now, new data suggest that the "dead mall" narrative has not just reversed: that part of the CRE market is thriving, with a Wall Street Journal report saying it's outperforming every other major CRE sector.

CRE research firm Green Street released a new report showing that mall values across the US rose 13% over the past year, leading all 10 sectors it tracks and more than doubling the increase in overall CRE prices. That recovery has attracted investors who are souring on weak performance across office and multifamily properties.

Simon Property Group, the largest US mall owner, saw its shares surpass their 2016 peak in July. That earlier peak came just as the "dead mall" narrative began to erupt in MSM headlines. The stock is up nearly 11% this year.

WSJ cited Vincent Rouget, CEO of Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, a Paris-based CRE company, who explained that US tenant sales and net operating income growth are exceeding the company's broader portfolio average, with rent growth at levels unseen since the early 2010s.

"We see the type of rent growth that we haven't seen since the beginning of the 2010s," Rouget told the outlet.

Morgan Stanley real estate research chief Ronald Kamdem said, "In terms of how we think about the malls today fundamentally, this is probably the best it's felt post-Covid."

The tailwinds extend beyond trophy malls. CBL Properties, which entered bankruptcy protection during the Covid pandemic, reports rising traffic and sales. Its shares have climbed 48% this year, and it has acquired five properties since July 2025 after shrinking its portfolio footprint for years. 

CBL's West County Center near St. Louis couldn't refinance its debt in 2022, and the property was in decline but has since seen tenant sales increase by 13% since 2023. 

Oversupply conditions have likely abated, as Green Street said about an estimated 200 malls have closed since 2008, leaving about 900 operating nationwide. 

Resilient consumer spending has put the remaining malls on some of their strongest footing in years, and many have shifted from a department-store-led business model toward destinations built around shopping, dining, and entertainment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 15:45

Here's What's Happening Inside Convenience Stores As Gas And Diesel Spike

We continue to track convenience store trends as an indicator of working-class sentiment, building on our coverage of the spending pullback that emerged early in the US-Iran conflict. That weakness persisted into late summer as August's fuel-price spike put further pressure on household budgets.

The Gulf conflict and a global refining squeeze pushed regular gasoline above $4.50 a gallon and diesel above $5.50 in August, leaving consumers with less room for discretionary purchases.

Jefferies food analyst Scott Marks published a note on Monday morning providing new insight into consumer trends at the convenience store level in August, as elevated fuel prices appeared to renew pressure on consumers.

Marks and his team found that visits fell 2% from a year earlier, a 1.25-percentage-point deterioration in the annual growth rate compared with July. The reversal largely erased July's improvement, he said, adding that higher fuel prices in late August and early September suggest traffic could remain under pressure.

The squeeze is showing up both at the pump and inside the store. Across tracked convenience store food categories, volumes declined roughly 9% from a year earlier during the three months ended Aug. 22, compared with a 7.5% decline over the six-month period. Dollar sales fell about 3%, even as pricing growth accelerated to approximately 6% from 5%.

Marks added more color:

What We C: Traffic Takes a Step Back in August

Convenience store traffic stepped back down in August, with rising fuel prices appearing to renew pressure on the consumer. A vast majority of top food categories saw sales worsen L3M vs. L6M, with volume trends similarly worsening in most. Performance nutrition shakes were the clear standout on strong DD% growth, underscoring consumer demand for protein, while chocolate inflected negative and energy continues to lead in beverages.

Convenience channel traffic steps back down. C-store foot traffic fell ~2% y/y in August, representing a 125 bps sequential decline vs. July. This decline follows a 150 bps sequential improvement in July, with rising fuel prices in the back half of the month that remained elevated through August likely driving the reversal in trends. Notably, with fuel prices rising further in late August and early September, c-store traffic is likely to remain under pressure. Nielsen data showed broad-based softening across top food categories, with a majority experiencing weaker sales trends in the L3M versus L6M period. Volumes also deteriorated across most categories, while pricing accelerated in the majority.

CASY results underscore trade-down, low-end more pressured. CASY FQ1 pointed to a consumer still spending on food/bevs while trading down elsewhere, with inside comps +3.2% and PFDB +4.8% driven by traffic and units. All income cohorts grew, though lower-income shoppers were more pressured, and higher fuel prices drove fewer gallons per trip but more trips. Grocery softness was category-led, as national brand pricing pushed snack buyers into private label and beer stayed weak, while nicotine alts and energy outperformed. With expectations elevated into the print, shares traded off on multiple compression rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

Performance nutrition shakes lead as chocolate inflects negative. U.S. tracked channel convenience store sales and volume trends deteriorated in the L3M vs. L6M ending Aug. 22, with total convenience volumes worsening to down ~9% from ~7.5% and sales worsening to down ~3% from ~2.7%. Performance nutrition shakes were the clear standout, with sales up ~13.5% L3M (vs. ~9% L6M) on ~13% volume growth and ~15% TDP growth, underscoring consumer demand for protein. Chocolate inflected negative on sales (down ~1% L3M vs. up ~1% L6M) as volumes worsened to down ~10% from ~8.5%. Multi serve (down ~17.5%), ice cream (down ~11.5%), meat snacks (down ~11%) and confection (down ~10.5%) led volume declines, with multi serve, frozen novelty, and sandwiches deteriorating most sharply L3M vs. L6M. On a sales basis, multi serve (down ~12.5%), confection (down ~6.5%), doughnuts (down ~6%) and meat snacks (down ~6%) were the steepest decliners. Price realization remained positive for most categories, led by chocolate (+8.5%), with total convenience food pricing accelerating to +6% L3M from +5% L6M.

Energy Remains a Standout in Beverages. Non-Alc Beverages declined 0.5% y/y over the L3M (-0.2% L6M) in the convenience channel, while Energy's outperformance continues, up 4.7%. Pricing is sticking, innovation is working, and new consumers are entering the category as consumers prioritize functional beverages. Meanwhile, soft drinks declined on both a dollar (down 3.4%) and a volume basis (units down 7.5%) over the L3M. Beer did, too, with sales down 5.0% L3M.

The report draws on Placer.AI foot-traffic data and NielsenIQ data from major convenience store chains and fuel retailers, including 7-Eleven, Casey's, Circle K, QuikTrip, Royal Farms and Wawa, providing a broad view of spending behavior across the channel.

Marks' findings suggest consumers are becoming more defensive with their spending, trading down and reducing purchase volumes as fuel and food costs squeeze household budgets. Strength in select categories shows that consumers remain willing to spend. This consumer pressure story at the convenience store level doesn't bode well for the Trump administration ahead of the midterm elections, as folks usually vote with their pocketbooks. 

Professional subscribers can read more about consumer trends here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 15:27

NATO Vows More Ukraine Support After Boris Johnson & David Petraeus Train Attack Near-Miss

More escalation, NATO says. The Western military alliance's Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Monday that Russian drone strikes near the Ukraine-Poland border hit "close to NATO territory".

He said the Sunday attack, which occurred merely hundreds of meters from Poland's border, smacked of Putin's "desperation and also his desire to sow fear and terror." Western media outlets reported early Sunday that a Russian attack drone struck a civilian locomotive on the Kiev-to-Warsaw route with just two kilometers from the border.

Rutte pledged even more support for Ukraine in the wake of the attack. "He thinks that he can stop us from supporting Ukraine and that he can undermine our unity. He is wrong," the NATO chief said of the Russian leader.

via Epoch Times

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has indicated greatly stepped-up border security, and has newly stated: "These coming weeks and months will be a time of very intensified actions on the Russian side, and unfortunately we cannot rule out that this escalation will also affect our territory."

European media reports suggested that former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other top officials may have been targeted. A train full of NATO security officials had reportedly just departed the station before the rare daytime strike.

And the former CIA director was on board, and commented:

Former CIA Director David Petraeus was at a Ukrainian train station Sunday when a Russian drone struck a Poland-bound train there.

Petraeus, a retired U.S. Army general, was aboard a separate passenger train at Yahodyn station near the Polish border when a jet-powered Russian drone struck the locomotive of a nearby train, according to multiple reports.

Petraeus said passengers on his train heard drones overhead and were evacuated after passing through Ukrainian customs. A large explosion followed.

According to the NY Times: "David Petraeus, the former C.I.A. director, could hear the Russian drones above his train, which had just passed through Ukrainian customs on its way to Poland on Sunday morning. He and other passengers were quickly evacuated. Not long after, he heard a huge explosion."

Petraeus told the outlet, "For those who have not been under fire, this was terrifying."

Russia struck the locomotive of a passenger train in Ukraine’s Volyn region, just 2 km from the Polish border, according to Ukrainian Railways.

A monitoring group had warned the train crew of the threat in advance, and no injuries were reported. pic.twitter.com/XE1V1tkKej

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 13, 2026

As for former UK PM Johnson, he condemned the attack but did not indicate that he thought he was being targeted. "What we can say for sure is that this is the kind of random and senseless attack Ukrainians are enduring every day – even on civilian railways," Johnson wrote on X. The particular train that he and other Western security officials were on was issued an evacuation order, but then soon after was allowed to proceed on its destination. 

Some pundits are pointing to a possible false flag scenario. It also could just be a strong 'warning' for from Moscow, after moving forward with strikes on 'decision-making centers' in Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 14:25

Jeffries Refuses To Rule Out Trump Impeachment If Democrats Win House

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Sunday that Democrats have not ruled out another impeachment of President Donald Trump if they capture control of the House in November's midterm elections.

During an appearance on ABC's "This Week," host George Stephanopoulos asked the New York Democrat whether his party would pursue impeachment immediately after taking control of the chamber.

"No, we haven't ruled anything in and we haven't ruled anything out in terms of impeachment," Jeffries said.

Jeffries said Democrats would instead begin by investigating allegations of wrongdoing and allow the evidence to determine what action Congress should take.

"We've got to follow the facts, apply the law, be guided by the Constitution, and then let the chips fall where they may, in the best interests of the American people," he said.

Jeffries pointed to Reps. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., and Robert Garcia, D-Calif., who would be positioned to lead the powerful House Judiciary and Oversight committees if Democrats win the majority.

Trump has already predicted that Democrats would attempt to impeach him again if they take control of the House.

The House impeached Trump twice during his first term. The first impeachment came in 2019 over his dealings with Ukraine. The second followed the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The Senate acquitted Trump in both cases.

Democrats would gain significantly expanded investigative authority if they capture the House, including control of committee hearings and subpoenas.

Jeffries also outlined several legislative priorities Democrats would pursue if they take control, including efforts to reverse Trump's tariffs, end U.S. involvement in the war with Iran and restore enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies.

"These are some of the things that I think we can begin to do," Jeffries said, adding that Democrats would pursue an aggressive legislative agenda throughout the next Congress.

Control of the House will be decided in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Republicans currently hold the majority, while Democrats are seeking the net gain of seats necessary to take control in January.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 14:10

Trump Says Meeting With Chinese Leader Will Cover 'Almost Everything'

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sept. 13 that he would discuss almost everything with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a planned meeting at the White House later this month.

Trump did not provide specifics but said his tariffs had kept Chinese vehicles out of the U.S. market.

"The tariff kept them out. I have a 100 percent tariff. From 100 to 150 percent," he told reporters aboard Air Force One, comparing the U.S. move with Europe, which he said was being decimated by Chinese cars.

Trump last week dismissed the possibility of allowing Chinese cars to be imported into the United States but indicated that he may be open to Chinese automakers building cars in the country, provided they hire American workers.

Earlier this month, a group representing most of the major automakers urged Congress to quickly pass legislation permanently barring Chinese vehicles from the U.S. market.

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents General Motors, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Honda, Stellantis, and others, called for passage of the bill by the end of December.

"Right now, Chinese automakers are dumping subsidized vehicles with connected software and hardware around the world," the group's CEO, John Bozzella, said in a letter to congressional leaders. "China is capturing market share in Europe, Australia, Southeast Asia, Mexico and South America with vehicles capable of collecting, processing and transmitting sensitive vehicle and consumer data to the Chinese Communist Party."

Trump also told reporters on Sept. 13 that he expects to reach an agreement for China to purchase Boeing aircraft during Xi's visit. China has previously agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes after the two leaders met in Beijing in May, but the deal has yet to be finalized.

"I get every deal," the president said.

When asked about reports alleging that Chinese entities may have supplied Iran with satellite imagery of U.S. airbases in Jordan, Trump said, "They basically do what we do."

It is unclear whether he plans to raise the issue during his meeting with Xi, but Trump said the Chinese leader has "behaved reasonably well."

"You know when they say that China spies on us, I say, you're right, and we spy on them, too," he said.

Xi was scheduled to visit the United States on Sept. 24. Trump formally invited Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, to the White House during his May visit to Beijing. The president said in July that he plans to discuss artificial intelligence with the Chinese leader.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on July 22 that he met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Manila, the Philippines, to lay the groundwork for Xi's upcoming visit to the United States.

Rubio acknowledged the major differences between Washington and Beijing and emphasized that it is their job to manage them to ensure "they never get out of control."

"We're, obviously, always going to defend our national interest," he said at the time. "And I expect they'll do the same, as they define it. But I think there are some areas of potential cooperation."

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 13:35

Trump Says US Could Remain In Iran And Keep Oil, Similar To Deal With Venezuela

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on Sept. 13 said the United States could ultimately remain in Iran and "keep the oil" in a similar manner to his administration's move to control some of Venezuela's oil reserves.

"We'll ultimately get out [of Iran], unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela," Trump said at the Trump International Golf Course in Ireland, adding that the U.S. revenue from Venezuela has "paid for the war many times."

The president did not elaborate on a possible oil agreement with Iran or whether he would be willing to deploy troops in the country. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Sept. 13.

Just over six months ago, the United States began strikes against Iran in a bid to end the country's nuclear aspirations as Trump has repeatedly said Tehran cannot be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Iran has launched strikes on commercial oil vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which a significant portion of the world's traded oil passes, leading to spikes in gasoline and energy prices worldwide and in the United States.

On Sept. 12, the British military's UK Maritime Trade Organization said it received a report of an "incident" in the Hormuz Strait as a "vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile while transiting" the waterway. A fire broke out on the ship and local officials are moving to evacuate crew members, it said.

Speaking at the Irish Open golf championship, Trump also said that the price of gas would "drop like a rock" once the Iran war ended. He added that he believes the Iran war will end this year.

Trump said that he would only make the "right deal" and wouldn't do one that he believes wouldn't be good for U.S. interests while asserting that Iran was "calling constantly" for peace talks.

Earlier this year, the U.S. military launched an operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before extraditing him to the United States. He faces felony drug charges and pleaded not guilty in January.

The White House in August announced a deal with Venezuela under which the United States takes control of 65 billion barrels from the South American country's vast oil reserves.

"This deal is a huge win for both the American and Venezuelan people," Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote in a post on X in late August. "It demonstrates how President Trump's bold foreign policy is driving America First wins: securing stable reserves and low-cost oil in our Hemisphere and lowering gas prices here at home."

Oil prices have remained relatively elevated in recent days amid strikes in Saudi Arabia. The price for both Brent crude and West Texas International barrels remained above $100 as of Sept. 13.

According to the American Automobile Association, the average gasoline price in the United States increased roughly 17 cents to $4.31 per gallon in the past seven days.

Saudi Arabia's energy ministry last week announced it was shutting down its East-West oil pipeline after it was attacked and as the Yemeni-based Houthi terrorist organization moved to capture cities closer to the Red Sea in recent days. The Houthis in the past week also launched strikes inside Saudi Arabia.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 12:40

Ukraine Pummels Black Sea Resort Near Putin's Villa With Air & Sea Drones

Ukraine sent some 400 drones across various parts of Russia and Crimea overnight, with UAV attacks having long been a nightly thing.

In this latest instance, the Black Sea resort city of Sochi suffered the most casualties, with five people - including a child - wounded in a drone attack. Several homes were also damaged in the assault.

The injuries in Sochi were due to "falling UAV debris" - local officials indicated Monday on Telegram. Sochi Mayor Andrei Proshunin later confirmed firefighters extinguished fires that resulted, with citizens being warned not to approach drone debris left from the attack.

Sochi has long been where President Putin has a sprawling vacation resort. He also used to frequently host foreign heads of state at the house.

Massive fire erupts at Sochi port, Russia, following reported Ukrainian drone attacks. pic.twitter.com/cm2WsiA4jS

— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 9, 2026

The Telegraph reports that Putin's vacation residence may have been targeted in the overnight drone attack:

Ukraine launched strikes near Vladimir Putin’s seaside villa in the Black Sea resort of Sochi overnight, injuring five people. Footage posted online purported to show Ukrainian drones descending on the city, with large explosions and the thud of local air defence audible.

...Local Telegram channels reported strikes on an S-400 anti-aircraft missile system, many of which have come under fire in recent weeks after military intelligence found that the defensive systems were being repurposed to strike ground targets in Ukraine.

One channel claimed that drones had targeted Putin’s Bocharov Ruchey summer dacha, a coastal compound in a busy area of the city. The Russian president is believed to have largely stopped visiting the residence since it came within range of Kyiv’s drones.

The city mayor has ordered a temporary beach closure, also after last week sea drones unleashed even greater casualties and mayhem.

It is reported that Russia's Krasnodar Krai was attacked overnight. Ukrainian drones targeted Sochi and other localities. Local residents reported a series of explosions and air defense activity. Due to the attack, restrictions were introduced at the Sochi airport. pic.twitter.com/JdPuodaDsO

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) September 14, 2026

"Proshunin later announced the closure of Sochis beache’s due to the ongoing risk of drone strikes," Moscow Times writes.

The prior incident saw seaside resorts and nightlife venues specifically targeted. One regional outlet details:

Ukrainian sea drones — which Russia’s Defense Ministry calls “uncrewed boats” — struck the waterfront in Sochi on the evening of September 9. Twenty-eight people were injured, including two children, Krasnodar Krai’s operational headquarters reported. All those injured have received medical treatment; three adults and one child remain hospitalized.

The attack began around 9 p.m., just as singer Tatiana Bulanova was performing a concert at the Festivalny House of Culture on the waterfront. The concert was halted and the audience evacuated.

One local resident recounted what happened: “My wife was at the concert. During the evacuation, people were falling, running in panic. Explosions could be heard all around. She fell while running to the car. She was knocked down by the blast wave. You could really feel the shock wave after each explosion. They were very close.”

Ukraine has been seeking to impose a steep cost on the Russian population of late, hoping that it puts enough pressure on President Putin to come to the negotiating table while willing to compromise.

#BREAKING

Ukrainian is attacking former Olympic city Sochi, Russia pic.twitter.com/XGVPQiysmn

— Brian’s Breaking News and Intel (@intelFromBrian) September 14, 2026

However, Russia's own ballistic missile and drone attacks have only intensified in response, with the southern port city of Odessa getting severely hit of late. Recently, a shopping center in Ukraine came under attack, resulting in a mass casualty event.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 12:20

Willy Wonka And The Compute Factories

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

Oil prices are rising again on news of the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline following drone strikes, and the Houthis’ seizure of strategic locations on the Red Sea coast.

Bond yields surged late last week on rising oil and inflation (and debt) concerns, while Asian equity indices and US equity futures are broadly in the red today. Geopolitical friction remains at the forefront of investor concerns as the Middle East and Eastern Europe simmer away, leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland plot the dissolution of the United Kingdom, and Canada hatches a cunning plan to avoid becoming the 51st US state by (in effect) becoming the 28th EU member state.

So, another quiet week ahead.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei caused a sensation over the weekend by publishing an essay arguing “we must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models”. Amodei’s call quickly found support from Elon Musk and Sam Altman, erstwhile Arthur Slugworths to Amodei’s Willy Wonka. Strange bedfellows indeed.

Amodei opens his essay by extoling the transformational potential of AI to create a Utopian world of superabundance where most major diseases are a thing of the past, economic growth is greatly accelerated, and a new renaissance of democracy and freedom is forthcoming. Come with me and you’ll be in a world of pure imagination.

The vision then turns darker with Amodei arguing that AI capabilities are advancing too quickly for society to appropriately manage the risks. That’s a sentiment that his fellow tech leaders apparently share, with Musk in particular previously arguing that AI could prove more dangerous than nuclear weapons. Curiously, this places founders in the unusual position of not only agreeing with each other but also favoring tighter regulation for their own businesses with future growth throttled.

Amodei points particularly to the recent emergence of ‘recursive self-improvement’ –AI building AI – as a source of potential risk, particularly following the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident whereby swarms of AI agents went rogue and began conducting cybersecurity attacks on targets that no human had asked them to attack. For anyone that has seen the Terminator or Matrix films, or read Frankenstein, or the Bible, the idea of Creation rebelling against Creator with disastrous consequences is a well-worn fear.

Fear is a great motivator, but any good markets person knows that greed is too. It didn’t take long for the cynics to emerge with alternative theories as to why founders might like to see tighter regulation, international coordination, and a slower pace of development. One commentator translated Amodei’s call as an admission that open source models are competing AI margins to zero while CAPEX burn rates threaten viability. The solution: regulatory intervention to limit competition and maintain margins.

Translation: our gross margins are getting competed down to 0 by open source models and our capex burn rate is too high.

Let’s maintain our margins with regulatory capture, ban open source models, and slow down the capex arms race. All with a virtue signaling cherry on top. https://t.co/70pusgSX8o

— Grant Hummer (@gphummer) September 12, 2026

Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, David Sacks, said that “if the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down. I support your decision to be responsible.” However, he then went on to suggest that the founders’ motivations were less than altruistic, that China was unlikely to join any agreement to slow the pace of AI development, and that founders were effectively lobbying for regulatory capture. His message: if you want to slow the pace of development, just do it yourselves.

The point about China is an important one. In a world of geopolitical competition, games that require coordination for humanity to come out a winner are hard and suboptimal outcomes can be Nash equilibriums (just look at Javier Blas’s recent tweet about soaring coal demand).

CHART OF THE DAY: Global coal demand has surprised the @IEA massively to the upside: it’s running ~1 billion tonnes higher (~9%) than the agency had expected only five years ago.

The forecasting error equals to the anual demand of the EU, Japan and the US — combined! pic.twitter.com/BfCHlV0DQ1

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 12, 2026

AI is national security, and China’s regular provision of Sputnik moments like the release of DeepSeek’s R1 model in January 2025 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 model in July this year have raised concerns that China is closing the gap in terms of the capabilities of frontier AI, at lower cost, and with open source models. Effectively, another Arthur Slugworth’s almost-as-good recipes (the model) have been made public, and that is a big problem for Willy Wonka (and also for Arthur Slugworth).

While calls from CEOs for regulation might be viewed as self-serving, the imperative for national governments to control AI should be sufficiently underscored by recent revelations from Anthropic that users in northern Yemen – home to the Houthis – tried to use Claude AI to develop advanced missiles, and that Iran had tried to use Claude to target American warships. There is a sense that a Pandora’s Box has been opened and that both the United States and China have an interest in forcing the lid back down to control access to such a potentially dangerous technology.

Izabella Kaminska argues that AI safety concerns are being proffered as a “credible off ramp from the hyper scaling narrative”, which she views as defunct since the release of Kimi K3. Emphasis shifts from the models themselves to the compute, power and chips used to run them. If AI models are Wonka and Slugworth’s increasingly commoditised recipes, the datacentres, energy sources and semiconductors are the factories used to convert recipe into product – and are the real strategic assets. Turns out real production can matter more than IP, who knew?

Kaminska argues that hyper scaling was never driven by expected demand, but by an arms race of sorts. The financial firepower to fund AI investments was determinative, but if the raison d’etre for hyperscaling disappeared in July, so did the need for immense private capital flows. Could we be approaching a scenario where US AI capabilities are brought under a kind of Manhattan Project where freed-up liquidity flows constitute the asymmetric information that Scott ‘I am the House’ Bessent has been warning markets about?

This, plus the fact that the AI cycle will need $1.5 trillion in private credit funding, is why the US will have to throw private credit in the bailout bucket too.

Yes, a lot of things will need a bailout to win the AI wars. That's why the $ is reserve for now. https://t.co/ozlvzvD98K

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 18, 2025

This week might provide some clues in that respect as the FOMC meets to set the Fed Funds rate. Following last week’s firmer than expected core CPI reading and two weeks of rising oil prices the markets are 87% priced for a hike. RaboResearch’s Fed watcher Philip Marey has recently updated our forecast to also predict a hike at this week’s meeting. Meanwhile, the FT reports that hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller (mentor to both Bessent and Fed Chair Warsh) recently told a closed audience that “given what’s going on in the economy and the capital spending boom and the war for capital, if anything, [bond yields seem] a little low”. Any indication that the war for capital might de-escalate would be a signal to pay close attention to!

Druckenmiller says that his fund has cut its AI investments to around 20% of previous levels, saying that “it has been an incredible ride on the whole AI thing... I think we’re getting late enough in the build-out that one has to start to worry a little”.

For his part, President Trump says that the pace of AI development should not slow down. Equity investors may be relieved to hear that, but given the geopolitical and bond market imperatives, and the increased prevalence of economic statecraft, perhaps they should pay some heed to other orange men with unusual hairstyles:

Oompa, Loompa, doom-pa-dee-da
If you're not greedy, you will go far
You will live in happiness too
Like the Oompa, Loompa, doompa-dee-do

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/14/2026 - 12:00