China Intel Officers Offering Western Gov't Insiders Cash For "Low-Level Information"

Submitted by The Bureau's Sam Cooper,

Chinese intelligence officers are offering Westminster insiders strikingly large sums of money for what looks like low-level political gossip – using "head hunters" on LinkedIn to offer paid "research tasks" – and effectively flooding Keir Starmer's government ranks with inducements to betray the people of Britain, in Beijing's efforts to build long-term relationships to undermine the West.

That is the stark picture painted in an extraordinary new espionage alert issued by MI5 and circulated inside Parliament, which warns that officers of China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) "offer large financial incentives for seemingly low-level information in an attempt to build a relationship and encourage the target to gain access to more non-public sensitive information."

The preferred methods of payment — cash drops in China or cryptocurrency transfers — are highlighted as a warning to British politicians to think very carefully before entering into any such financial relationship with Chinese-linked actors.

The unorthodox disclosure from counter-intelligence officials that are usually tight-lipped to a fault comes on the heels of the collapse of the Christopher Berry and Christopher Cash insider-threat case — a generational scandal The Bureau has reported on extensively, and which involved alleged suitcase-cash payments, and cultivation of a Westminster researcher with access to prominent critics of China in Conservative MP ranks. MI5 does not name Berry or Cash, but the tradecraft it describes could be read as a point-by-point guide to the methods exposed in that case.

The briefing, titled "Security Service Espionage Alert: MSS tradecraft and methodology," sets out, in unusually explicit language, how a specific "group of highly active officers" from China's secret police service have been trying to penetrate the "UK democratic system" — especially Parliament and the ecosystem of staffers, consultants and think-tank analysts around it.

MI5 begins with a blunt statement of intent. The Chinese service, it says, "seek to collect sensitive information on the UK to gain strategic advantage," and the alert has been triggered by "recent examples of attempts to target UK Parliament for intelligence gathering." 

That line alone resonates with what has emerged in the media leaks explaining why the explosive insider case was dropped under Keir Starmer's government, in which senior national security appointees reportedly played down the risk of non-classified political information being spilled to Beijing through the Cash and Berry pipeline. Reporting in British media has suggested that Starmer's government opted to preserve trade relations with Beijing rather than allow the damning insider case to proceed in court, a move that has infuriated the U.S. government, which warned that Starmer's government risks fracturing the Five Eyes intelligence alliance by failing to protect elected officials targeted by Beijing.

What the MSS wants — and why "trivial" titbits matter

The first section of MI5's pointed alert to British officials is headed, "What do they target?"

MI5 says MSS officers are focused on political and economic material, "particularly of a classified or non-public sensitive nature." But crucially, they have a "low threshold for what information is considered to be of value." Because their collection effort is broad and sustained, "individual pieces of information fit into a wider collection effort and create a cumulative impact."

That is exactly how the Berry–Cash pipeline was described in court documents. Berry, a young academic, allegedly channelled "real-time political intelligence" from his former teaching colleague — a parliamentary researcher embedded with Conservative MPs who were seen in Beijing as potential China hawks — into the hands of an MSS handler known only as "Alex." Those reports, British officials revealed in documents, later surfaced at the very top of the Chinese Communist Party.

The new MI5 document seemingly seeks to underline warnings from that episode. Political insiders are warned not to assume that because something is unclassified, or feels like mere "parliamentary gossip," it is safe to share for money.

Under the section "Who do they target?", MI5 draws a map of the political class that extends far beyond elected MPs. "Individuals with direct access to information on the UK democratic system are high priority targets," the paper states. Where possible, officers approach such people directly. But echoing the Berry–Cash model, MI5 stresses that the MSS also "conducts analysis to understand a target's social and professional network and potential access, cultivating individuals who are one step removed from the ultimate target."

That line could easily describe Christopher Cash, the parliamentary researcher who worked for rising Conservative MPs such as Tom Tugendhat — a prominent China hawk exploring ways to tighten laws against Beijing's infiltration under Rishi Sunak's government, and someone Chinese officials reportedly viewed as a potential future leader of the Conservative Party.

The Service's assessment makes clear that the Chinese secret police are seeking to corrupt the entire ecosystem around Westminster, not just MPs. 

Parliamentary staff manage the flow of papers and private correspondence, giving the MSS a near-real-time view of Parliament's internal machinery. Economists shape the forecasts and policy options on which ministers rely, and can become influential public intellectuals in their own right, making arguments that may tilt debate in Beijing's favour. Think-tank employees and policy analysts prepare drafts and advice that later reach Cabinet tables, providing early insight into government decision-making. Geo-political consultants sit at the junction of business and politics and, as the alert and recent U.S. indictments highlight, can profit from advocating policies that benefit Chinese commercial and diplomatic interests. And a wider cast of professionals identified in the MI5 alert — researchers, lobbyists and aides — act as connective tissue around MPs and peers, giving Chinese intelligence indirect, lower-risk, clandestine access to Britain's political core.

In the Berry case, it was precisely this one-step-removed structure — a researcher feeding an academic, who in turn reported to "Alex," an MSS agent working through a front company in China that promoted investment in Britain — who, British officials say, served as the conduit for real-time intelligence on the Conservative leadership race to Xi Jinping's close ally on the Politburo Standing Committee, reportedly Cai Qi.

The MI5 alert spells out potential criminal exposure under the National Security Act, emphasizing that even unclassified information can trigger prosecution if shared with a foreign intelligence service. It highlights three main offences that could apply to Westminster insiders caught up in Chinese approaches:

• Section 1 – Obtaining protected information: Covers any material gathered for or on behalf of a foreign power, even if not formally classified.

• Section 3 – Assisting a foreign intelligence service: Criminalizes any act that knowingly helps an intelligence operation of a hostile state.

• Section 17 – Obtaining a material benefit from a foreign intelligence service: Targets those who accept money or other advantages—such as travel or consulting fees—in exchange for information.

. . . 

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Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 20:55

Network Of California Democrat Party Insiders Under Investigation For Fraud

Initial reports of an ongoing fraud investigation in Sacramento by the US Department of Justice revealed that Gavin Newsom's former Chief of Staff, Dana Williamson, was being indicted on 23 felony counts.  Crimes include conspiracy to commit bank and wire fraud, bank fraud, wire fraud, filing false tax returns, and making false statements to the IRS.

The charges allege she orchestrated a scheme to siphon approximately $225,000 from a dormant campaign account belonging to former Attorney General Xavier Becerra (referred to as "Public Official 1" in the indictment), using it for personal gain through fake consulting fees, shell companies, and laundered payments.  However, new information shows that Williamson may not have acted alone.  

At least three other California Democrat insiders and two unnamed suspects are potentially implicated in the investigation. Charges against two of them have been formally filed so far, and the investigation continues to grow as authorities sift through evidence involving "The Collaborative", a prominent alliance of Democratic-leaning political consulting firms in California headed by Williamson.  

A longtime Democratic power broker in California's Capitol, Williamson worked as an adviser to former Gov. Gray Davis and as a Cabinet secretary for former Gov. Jerry Brown before opening her own political affairs firm.  She served as Xavier Becerra’s campaign manager when he ran for state attorney general in 2018. Becerra most recently served as President Biden's Health and Human Services Secretary and is running for California governor. 

She was named Newsom’s chief of staff in late 2022, a job she held for about two years. Gov. Newsom's office said Wednesday they put her on leave in November of 2024 after she informed them that she was under criminal investigation.

Other suspects include Sean McCluskie, the former Chief of Staff for Xavier Becerra. He also served with Becerra when he was California Attorney General.

Then there is Greg Campbell, a close associate of Williamson and a well-connected lobbyist and consultant who rakes in campaign finance from massive corporate clients.  He has worked as senior staff for the last five Assembly Speakers including in the role of chief of staff to Speakers Toni G. Atkins and John A. Perez.

And Alexis Podesta (no relation to John Podesta).  She has not yet been charged with any crimes, and her attorney said she is cooperating with the investigation.  Podesta is a Sacramento-based political consultant who served as a secretary under Gov. Jerry Brown. She is also a member of the board of the state compensation fund.  She has worked for PG&E and Disney, and is listed as a managing director and member of The Collaborative, the group led by Campbell and Williamson.

California's capital is reportedly in shock as the corruption charges net party elites and power brokers.  The Williamson investigation was launched three years ago under the Biden Administration and has nothing to do with Trump, meaning no political bias is being applied against Democrats. 

The investigation also exposes the elaborate web of bureaucrats and funding networks festering in state politics.  So much cash flows through these political groups and organizations it is likely that we are only seeing a surface glimpse of the rampant theft taking place. 

If you have ever wondered how it is possible for hundreds of billions of dollars to flood into states like California and yet none of their fundamental problems, (including their homeless problem) never seem to get fixed, this is one of the reasons why.  Democrats are charged with similar crimes nearly three times more often than Republicans. Politics has become a racket, and the Democrats are particularly adept at it.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 20:30

ICE Houston Sweep: 3,600 Criminal Illegal Aliens Arrested, Including 51 Child Predators

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Trump administration’s deportation surge is already producing major results. In Houston alone, ICE has arrested nearly 3,600 criminal illegal aliens in a single operation, among them 51 individuals with child-sex offenses and 67 convicted sex offenders.

These arrests are directly tied to the president’s new focus on narco-terrorism and cartel supply chains.

Houston has long served as a major distribution hub for both drugs and human trafficking; the scale of this operation underscores that the administration is targeting the worst offenders first.

? JUST IN: INCREDIBLE victory as ICE arrested nearly 3,600 criminal illegal aliens in HOUSTON during the federal government shutdown

Wow! They put in the WORK while Democrats shut down the country.

It includes 51 child predators and 67 s*x offenders? pic.twitter.com/rudic0DbEl

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 18, 2025

The sweep is part of a broader nationwide push that began with last week’s welfare-fraud raids, which recovered more than 24,400 missing migrant children from trafficking and exploitation networks across multiple states.

The Houston operation follows directly from last week’s high-impact raids in key locations, where ICE and local law enforcement zeroed in on criminal illegal aliens preying on communities.

In Florida, the state Highway Patrol’s “Operation Criminal Return” led to the arrest of 230 criminal aliens, including multiple child predators and sex offenders, who were then turned over to ICE for deportation.

Florida has been at the forefront of these efforts, with over 6,200 illegal aliens arrested statewide in recent weeks and handed off to federal authorities.

Similarly, in Charlotte, North Carolina, federal agents arrested 130 illegal migrants over a single weekend, many with serious criminal histories including assaults, DUIs, larcenies, and hit-and-runs.

CBP Charlotte Area Port Director Gregory Bovino noted the intensity: “We do expect that number to go up a lot,” adding that nearly 100 arrests occurred in just hours, creating a visible deterrent effect—reports indicate illegal migrants in the area are now “afraid to go outside” as agents saturate the city.

These actions underscore the Trump administration’s strategy of partnering with willing states to target exploitation rings that flourished under Biden’s open-border policies.

Meanwhile, Border Czar Tom Homan addressed criticism from Rep. Alma Adams (D-NC) following the Charlotte arrests, where agents removed convicted child rapists and murderers from her district:

“She can dislike it all she wants… You’d think she’d be hand-in-hand with us, thanking President Trump for focusing on the worst of the worst — child rapists and murderers,” Hooman urged.

He added, that Adams “needs to understand we’re enforcing the law. I mean, what other federal agency does she think should NOT enforce laws? We’re taking public safety threats out of her community every day, which makes her community safer. We’d like her to be a partner, but she doesn’t want it.”

? Tom Homan is DONE with Rep. Adams (D-NC) whining about DHS removing child r*pists & criminals from her community:

“We’re going to KEEP doing it. She can dislike it all she wants!”

“You THINK she’d be hand in hand with us, thanking Trump for prioritizing public safety threats?”

He’s spot on ? pic.twitter.com/6Ft6w67Vpz

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 18, 2025

Homan’s response highlights a recurring theme from the recent operations: Democratic officials who previously decried child trafficking under Biden are now opposing the very enforcement that addresses it.

These coordinated efforts—from Florida’s predator takedowns to Charlotte’s rapid sweeps and now Houston’s massive haul—demonstrate the scale of the administration’s commitment to child safety and border security.

With hundreds of thousands more deportations projected, the focus remains on removing threats while safeguarding the vulnerable.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 20:05

Heart Attack Risk Halved In Survivors Taking Tailored Vitamin D Doses, Researchers Say

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Researchers found that adult heart attack survivors who took specific vitamin D doses reduced their risk of developing another heart attack by more than half, compared with people who did not take the vitamin D dose.

A man sits in a hospital waiting room in Irvine, Calif., on July 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Research done by Utah-based Intermountain Health found that there was a 52 percent lower risk of suffering another heart attack in people who already survived one and who received “personalized dosing of vitamin D supplements” to reach vitamin D levels of 40 nanograms per milliliter for around four years, said a news release from the American Heart Association (AHA).

That was compared to those who did not receive management of their vitamin D levels, the AHA said.

Over 85 percent of the people who enrolled in the study had vitamin D levels below that threshold, while nearly 52 percent in the study group had to take more than 5,000 international units (IU) of vitamin D per day to reach the blood target levels, the Nov. 9 release said. The 5,000 IU dose is around six times the 800 IU that is recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) per day.

*  *  *

Yes, we sell Vitamin D which we'd be grateful if you'd try - though whether or not you buy from us, please absorb the information in this article.

*  *  *

“Previous clinical trial research on vitamin D tested the potential impact of the same vitamin D dose for all participants without checking their blood levels first,” Heidi T. May of Intermountain Health said in an AHA statement.

The researchers also checked the study participants’ vitamin D levels when they started the study, followed up, adjusting the dose as needed to reach a range of between 40 and 80 nanograms per milliliter, the statement said.

The authors of the paper suggested that their findings could allow health care providers to focus more on blood testing for people who had experienced heart attacks and to provide tailored doses for them.

While the AHA did not say what form of vitamin D was administered in the study, a separate news release issued by Intermountain Health said that the researchers used vitamin D3, the most common form used in dietary supplements.

In the statement, May said the researchers “observed no adverse outcomes when giving patients higher doses of vitamin D3 supplementation, and to significantly reduce the risk of another heart attack, which are exciting results.”

The study was presented at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2025 in New Orleans earlier this month. It enrolled 630 adults with acute coronary syndrome who were treated at the Intermountain Medical Center in Salt Lake City from April 2017 to May 2023 and who had an average follow-up of 4.2 years for their condition.

The AHA said that around 107 major cardiac events, such as a heart attack, stroke, heart failure that required hospitalization, or death, occurred in the study period.

The paper released this month adds to a growing body of research around vitamin D supplementation and heart disease. Last year, a study found that taking vitamin D supplements doesn’t reduce the risk of cardiac arrest in older adults, while one published in the British Medical Journal showed there was an association between the supplements and major cardiac events among people over the age of 60.

Aside from supplements, foods that are considered rich in vitamin D include egg yolks, fatty fish, fish liver oil, and cheese, while some foods like cereal, orange juice, milk, and others are fortified with the vitamin. Vitamin D is also activated in the body when the skin is exposed to sunlight.

May added that her organization is encouraging those who have heart disease to speak to health care providers about targeted vitamin D dosing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 18:25

Watchdog: Chicago Public Schools Blew Millions On Trips, Spas, And Overseas Travel

A new investigation by Chicago Public Schools Inspector General Philip Wagenknecht shows overnight and travel spending in the district surged from about $300,000 in 2021 to nearly $8 million by 2024, according to WTTW.

His report says some staff exploited the district’s “lax, vague, inadequate and unenforced” rules, leading to “exorbitant” post-pandemic travel funded by taxpayers.

The OIG found CPS spent roughly $14.5 million on travel in 2023 and 2024, much of it for out-of-town conferences or overnight student trips.

WTTW writes that the probe began after an elementary school paid more than $20,000 for a staff trip to Egypt without approval; CPS canceled that trip and two others. Investigators later identified more than $142,000 spent by eight schools on overseas travel — including visits to Egypt, Finland, Estonia and South Africa — that featured “tourist activities of debatable value” such as camel rides, a game park visit and hot air balloon rides.

The report also highlighted Las Vegas conferences where more than 600 employees spent over $1.5 million between 2022 and 2024. One principal booked an unapproved $400-a-night suite for himself and his wife.

According to the report, “Nearly 90% of CPS attendees stayed in hotel rooms that exceeded CPS spending limits, and at least two dozen took round-trip Chicago-Las Vegas flights costing more than $1,000,” noting that when the same conference was held in Chicago, attendance was minimal.

The OIG urged CPS to keep seminars local, stating, “Rather than spend millions on professional development at resort spas, luxury hotels and overseas destinations, CPS should keep its educational seminars as close to home as possible.”

CPS has since restricted nearly all employee travel (as of Oct. 29) and created a Travel Review Committee. A spokesperson said the district takes the findings seriously, adding, “Chicago Public Schools remains unwavering in its commitment to fiscal responsibility and the success of our students,” and that CPS is committed “to protect our investments and resources.” The district said new financial systems should strengthen oversight.

Reiterating its mission, CPS stated, “The core mission of CPS is clear: to provide every student with a high-quality, rigorous, inclusive, and enriching education… and to reduce expenditures in a sustainable way.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 18:00

Trump Names Saudi Arabia A 'Major Non-NATO Ally' During MbS Candlelight Dinner Attended By Tech Moguls 

Aside from a couple of hiccups involving exchanges with the press, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's (MbS) visit to the White House went well, after he came bearing massive gifts, especially a pledge for a whopping $1 trillion in US investment.

During the Tuesday night candlelight dinner in his honor, which was attended by Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Cristiano Ronaldo, the head of FIFA Gianni Infantino - and many other tech moguls and notable figures - President Trump took the opportunity to proclaim for the first time Saudi Arabia as a "major non-NATO ally" (MNNA).

Via Reuters

This was based on the signing of a new security pact with MbS, called the US-Saudi Strategic Defense Agreement (SDA), during the earlier Oval Office visit.

"At tonight’s dinner, I’m happy to share that we are elevating our military partnership by officially naming Saudi Arabia a major non-NATO ally," Trump said.

This newly designated status will give the kingdom preferential access to US military hardware, which as Trump also unveiled will include sales of F-35 fighter jets and 300 US-manufactured tanks.

To some degree the US-Saudi oil for weapons relationship has been cemented institutionally going all the way back to the 1970s, but talk of nuclear energy - and even the US providing a potential nuclear nuclear security umbrella - represents an escalation in strategic closeness and relations.

As part of this, the White House is further describing this as the "legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar nuclear energy partnership."

But what else does the United States (and Israel) get out of this? MbS appears to now be 'cooperating' on a years-long effort for normalization of ties with Israel, after diplomacy was stalled for two years amid the Gaza War.

The crown prince told reporters, "We want to join the Abraham Accords, but we also need a clear pathway to a two-state solution."

"We had a constructive discussion with the president, and we’re going to work together to create the right conditions as soon as possible," he added.

 As expected, all is well again despite years of Saudi Arabia being under a limited (and in reality somewhat mild) human rights spotlight:

The red carpet welcome for Prince Mohammed is an extraordinary moment in diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. It is his first visit to the United States since the 2018 killing of the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, which U.S. intelligence determined the prince ordered. Prince Mohammed has denied involvement.

After Mr. Khashoggi’s murder, some Western business executives and government officials backed out of Saudi Arabia’s global investment conference, including leaders of major American financial institutions. But by the following year, top deal makers were back at the event in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.

Via Reuters

But apparently there's nothing that Saudi petro-billions (or now Trillion) can't fix - it covers a multitude of sins, and elites had already been flocking back to doing business with Riyadh over the last years.

Families of the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks aren't happy either, given the mounting evidence of Saudi Arabia's role in that as well. But America has a short memory and attention-span, apparently. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 17:40

Ackman Floats "Immediately Actionable" Blueprint To Free Fannie And Freddie

Bill Ackman thinks he knows what to do to finally resolve the 16-year limbo trapping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - the mortgage-finance pillars that remain under federal control over a decade after the financial crisis.

In a Tuesday presentation on X, the billionaire founder of Pershing Square Capital Management outlined a three-step proposal he says would meet the Trump administration's policy goals, while restoring the companies to private-market discipline. The plan comes amid the White House's struggle to ease housing costs - which included an absurd idea to roll out 50-year mortgages. 

The two government-sponsored entities (GSEs) underpin roughly half of America's $12 trillion mortgage market. They don't lend directly - rather, they purchase mortgages from banks and lenders, package them into securities and guarantee investors against losses. This system helps keep credit flowing through economic cycles. 

Pershing is the largest common shareholder in the two companies with over 210 million total shares. 

Ackman has long argued that the government's post-crisis control of the two companies which was formalized in a 2008 conservatorship was intended to be temporary, but has dragged on for years beyond its stated purpose. 

He proposes the following as an "immediately actionable" roadmap for the Treasury and Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the GSEs. 

Step one: Acknowledge the bailout is repaid.

Fannie and Freddie received $187 billion in Treasury support during the crisis. Ackman noted the GSEs have since sent “hundreds of billions” in profits to the federal government through quarterly “net worth sweeps,” far exceeding the original rescue. He urged Treasury and FHFA to formally declare the obligation satisfied—a move that would mark a symbolic break from the financial-crisis era.

Step two: Make taxpayers official owners.

As part of the 2008 rescue, Treasury received warrants to buy up to 79.9% of each company’s common stock at a nominal price. Exercising those warrants, Ackman said, would convert taxpayers’ implicit economic stake into a formal controlling interest—an unusual structure that would leave the U.S. government the majority owner of two publicly traded financial institutions.

Step three: Return the GSEs to the stock market.

Fannie and Freddie were delisted from the New York Stock Exchange after entering conservatorship. Ackman said the companies now meet listing requirements and that relisting would restore liquidity for investors, broaden ownership, and help recapitalize the firms. He argued that with taxpayer ownership approaching 80%, the resulting equity value could exceed $300 billion.

The proposal intersects with a broader debate over the future of U.S. housing finance - a politically delicate realm that has eluded reform under multiple administrations. Supporters of privatization say the GSEs should operate with market discipline and adequate capital so taxpayers are insulated from future downturns. Critics warn that premature release or inadequate safeguards could encourage the kind of risk-taking that contributed to the 2008 collapse.

https://t.co/fGD58qrBp8

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) November 18, 2025

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 17:20

Venezuela's Maduro Seeks 'Face-to-Face Talks' With Trump Officials 

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro made clear early this week that he'd be willing to hold "face-to-face" talks with US officials and warned President Trump against starting a war with his country.

"In the United States, whoever wants to talk with Venezuela will talk, face to face, without any problem," Maduro said on his weekly TV program, comments that came after Trump suggested that his administration "may" be holding talks with the Venezuelan government.

Via CBS

But Trump also told reporters on Monday that he wouldn’t rule out sending troops into Venezuela, and the major US military buildup in the Caribbean continues. Maduro said that if Trump ordered military strikes on Venezuela, it would be the "biggest mistake of his life."

Maduro suggested that political factions within the US are trying to hurt Trump before the 2026 congressional elections by pressuring him on the Jeffrey Epstein scandal and pushing him to go to war with Venezuela. "They want President Trump to attack Venezuela militarily, which would be the end of his political leadership and his name," the Venezuelan leader said, according to the Miami Herald.

Maduro has previously focused his criticism on Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been leading the push toward war with Venezuela.

"Mr. President Donald Trump, you have to be careful because Marco Rubio wants your hands stained with blood, with South American blood, Caribbean blood, Venezuelan blood," Maduro told reporters when the US began its bombing campaign against alleged drug boats in the region.

Following the first US strikes on boats in the region, Maduro sent a letter to Trump urging for diplomacy and stating his readiness to talk with Trump’s special envoy, Ric Grennel, who met directly with the Venezuelan leader back in January.

Despite the US push toward war, Venezuela has still been cooperating on deportation flights from the US. Between March and mid-October, the US conducted 40 removal flights to Caracas, deporting about 8,000 Venezuelan nationals.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 17:00

"GPUs Are Sold Out": Nvidia Soars After Blowing Away Results, Projections

In our preview of NVDA's Q3 results, we said that "it's not a question whether the company beats - they always do - but whether the "blowout" and the "smash" will be big enough to impress a market that has already priced in perfection, and beyond, for the GPU maker."

The market was impressed.

Here is what NVDA just reported for Q3: 

• Adjusted EPS $1.30, beating estimates of $1.24
• Revenue $57.01 billion, up +62% y/y, beating estimate $55.19 billion, and up $3BN vs guidance
  • Data center revenue $51.2 billion, +66% y/y, beating estimate $49.34 billion
  • Gaming revenue $4.3 billion, +30% y/y, missing estimate $4.42 billion
  • Professional Visualization revenue $760 million, +56% y/y, beating estimate $612.8 million
  • Automotive revenue $592 million, +32% y/y, missing estimate $620.9 million
• Adjusted operating income $37.75 billion, +62% y/y, estimate $36.46 billion
• Adjusted operating expenses $4.22 billion, +38% y/y, estimate $4.22 billion
  • Adjusted gross margin 73.6%, missing est 74.0% and down from 75.0% a year ago. 
• R&D expenses $4.71 billion, +39% y/y, estimate $4.66 billion
• Free cash flow $22.09 billion, +32% y/y

And visually, the stunning fact here is that Data Center rose $10BN sequentially, and up 66% YoY.

Naturally, since NVidia's revenue is hyperscalar capex, the company has a "little" revenue concentration risk. For Q3, four direct customers with sales greater than 10% of total revenue included: 

• Customer A at 22% 
• Customer B at 15% 
• Customer C at 13% 
• Customer D at 11%

While there were some blemishes across the various segments, most notably gaming and automotive revenue which missed, these are negligible for the company considering its Data Centers revenue was a whopping $51.2BN, up 66% YoY, and smashing estimates of $49.3BN by nearly $2BN.

Going down the income statement, the one item that jumps out as not being significantly better than estimates was gross margin. Nvidia said it’s rolling out new chips and new systems and that’s pushing up the company’s costs compared with a year ago. That said, as the ramp of Blackwell picks up sequentially, so are its margins. More importantly, the company's guidance (see below) should ease concerns here.

And if historicals were impressive, the outlook was even more blowout:

• Revenue is expected to be $65.0 billion, plus or minus 2% (i.e. $63.70 billion to $66.30 billion) , smashing expectations of $61.98BN (although there were some buyside bogeys as high as $75BN which means that Huang is likely sandbagging again).
• Gross margins (GAAP and non-GAAP) are expected to be 74.8% and 75.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.
• Operating expenses (GAAP and non-GAAP) are expected to be approximately $6.7 billion and $5.0 billion, respectively.

Commenting on the quarter, CEO Jensen Huang said that “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out. Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference — each growing exponentially. We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI. The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries. AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”

Kunjan Sobhani, a senior technology analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, also chimes in: "With a broadening AI infrastructure build-out and improving supply alignment, clarity on the $500 billion pipeline through fiscal 2027, large-scale expansion deals and competitive options will be key for sustaining sentiment"

While normally nobody looks at Nvidia’s balance sheet, maybe it's time to start, as it is only getting stronger. NVDA ended the quarter with $60.6 billion of cash and equivalents, so "only" $320BN away from Berkshire. So it still has plenty of room to fund the adoption of AI in new parts of the economy, as it’s indicated it will.

Investors’ initial reaction to Nvidia’s results -- including a big beat on its 4Q revenue guidance -- is good. Shares spiked more than 4% in postmarket trading.

This is important, because the fate of Nvidia’s stock determines the the AI trade, and the broader market: Nvidia holds the largest weighting in the S&P 500 Index - hangs heavily on how investors digest the results and commentary from the company.

Yet while Nvidia shares are sharply higher, the move reverses only part of a slump that saw the stock slip about 10% below a record high set at the end of October. 

In any case, Nvidia’s results are strong enough to also lift shares of other stocks tied to artificial intelligence in after-hours trading: shares of CoreWeave and Nebius are up 4%, AMD is up nearly 2%, Micron is up about 2% and Broadcom shares are moving higher as well.  

Goldman's James Schneider has just pushed out his first take: "Strong quarter with upside to guidance should provide relief for the stock." We excerpt the highlights from the note below (full report available to pro subs).

• Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to trade higher following a stronger quarter and guidance relative to the Street, and against relatively balanced expectations heading into the quarter. We believe investor expectations had been somewhat elevated heading into the quarter, given upward CapEx revisions from hyperscalers, as well as Nvidia's own bullish 2026 outlook at GTC in late October. However, we believe the bar for stock performance has been lowered somewhat, with the stock pulling back ~6% ahead of the print. On the conference call, we expect investors to focus on : (1) incremental details on the company's recent $500 bn Datacenter revenue forecast; (2) visibility into OpenAI deployments; (3) the timing of the Rubin product launch in 2026.

In short: Nvidia just saved the possibility of a Christmas rally.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Also, grab a sweet knife (limited stock, almost sold out)

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 16:40

What We've Lost

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

What we've lost are the foundations of a healthy standard of living / quality of life.

Amidst the constant drumbeat of tech "progress" and grandiose "solutions," it's a useful exercise to ask: what have we lost in the past 40 years despite all the "progress" and "solutions"? Put another way: what did we have in 1985 that we no longer have, despite all the "progress"?

1. We no longer have affordable, functional healthcare. As I have documented, based on what I paid as an employer and self-employed worker, healthcare insurance was still affordable in 1985; this is no longer the case. By functional, I mean universally accessible and sustainable for those employed in healthcare.

Neither condition applies today. Financially marginalized Americans don't have the same access to the care that is available to wealthy Americans and those with gold-plated insurance. For many Americans, their access to care is little better (or worse) than low-income, developed-nation standards.

As for those working in healthcare, burnout and changing jobs to increase pay and reduce overwork are now standard features of frontline employment in healthcare.

2. Our collective health is systemically worse. These charts from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) tell the story: in 1985, relatively few Americans were classified as obese (BMI of 30 or higher). While BMI is not an ideal measure, moderate BMI levels reflect a lifestyle of moderate activity and relatively healthy diet. By 2023, the situation had deteriorated to the point that by more recent metrics, almost 80% of adult Americans are overweight/obese, conditions that generate a spectrum of health risks.

3. Our public infrastructure has crumbled even as our private wealth soared. Maybe the roadways and highways are pothole-free and well-maintained in your area, and public transit is clean, reliable and cheap, but as a general rule, public infrastructure has decayed over the the past 40 years to the point that it's often better in developing-world nations than in the US.

While our public infrastructure has decayed, private wealth has soared from $60 trillion in 2010 to $167 trillion in 2025. Measured by overall health and security, the top 10% are doing splendidly, having accumulated the majority of the $100 trillion in private wealth gains, while the bottom 60% are experiencing decay and decline.

4. Housing is no longer affordable. By any legitimate measure--for example, the number of hours of work needed to buy a median-priced house--housing is no longer affordable for the bottom 80% of the populace.

5. Moral decay has rotted the foundations of our society and economy. Self-interest is now the exclusive pursuit and measure of "success": consequences have no bearing on decisions unless they detract from one's private gains. Since a truthful accounting of consequences is detrimental to self-interest, artifice is now the norm. Authenticity has been replaced by curation--everything is gamed, massaged, managed to present a fake image or spectacle.

Here is a chart of healthcare insurance costs. This doesn't reflect the erosion of value generated by the expansion of co-pays, deductions and exclusions.

Here is the CDC map of obesity from 1985:

Here is the CDC map of obesity for 2023:

Private wealth has skyrocketed...

... but not everyone gained ground. As I have often noted, the bottom 50%'s share of household wealth has declined. Only the top tier benefited from The Everything Bubble.

Measured by wages, housing affordability is now worse than at the peak of the 2005-07 Housing Bubble #1.

As for moral decay, since honest appraisals are anathema, there will be no admission that the status quo is far more corrupt than it was in 1985. We all know it, but it cannot be admitted publicly, or ours is now a culture of excuses, prevarications, rationalizations, empty slogans, distractions and grandiose claims. The inability to admit that the status quo is corrupt is a measure of the depth of systemic moral decay.

What we've lost are the foundations of a healthy standard of living / quality of life.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition) through November. Introduction (free)

Check out my updated Books and Films.

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com

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Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 16:20

Larry Summers Resigns From OpenAI Board; Harvard Launches Investigation After Epstein Revelations

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has resigned from the board of OpenAI following the release of messages in which Summers was asking Jeffrey Epstein for dating advice to try and bed a female mentee whose father was a former CCP official. 

Then-Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers speaks at the University's 2004 Commencement ceremony. Summers recently retracted from public engagements after his emails with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein were released. By Crimson Multimedia Staff

On Monday Summers announced that he would be stepping back from all public commitments - and while he said he would continue to teach at Harvard, his office appeared to be gone Monday evening. 

"In line with my announcement to step away from my public commitments, I have also decided to resign from the board of OpenAI," Summers told Axios. "I am grateful for the opportunity to have served, excited about the potential of the company and look forward to following their progress."  

Over 20,000 documents were released last week by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee from Epstein's estate. 

Summers, a known longtime associate of Epstein, joined the board of OpenAI in 2023 during a brief period in which CEO Sam Altman was ousted from the company - only to return days later. Summers was appointed alongside Bret Taylor, former Salesforce CEO, and Quora CEO Adam D'Angelo - the only member of OpenAI's initial board who still had a seat. 

In a statement, OpenAI said "Larry has decided to resign from the OpenAI Board of Directors, and we respect his decision. We appreciate his many contributions and the perspective he brought to the Board."

Meanwhile, the Economic Club of New York postponed a discussion with Summers this week, hours after the Crimson published its article - telling FT that it was "postponed due to an unavoidable change in schedule. 

Harvard Investigates

According to the Harvard Crimson, the University will launch a new investigation into its ties to Epstein following the Summers scandal. The university had already conducted an investigation in 2020, in which they found that Epstein donated $9,179,000 across 22 'gifts', including a $736,000 donation after his 2006 arrest but before his 2008 conviction for sex trafficking a minor. 

Epstein was also a Visiting Fellow in the Psychology Department in the 2005-2006 academic year despite lacking academic qualifications typically possessed by Visiting Fellows. 

The new probe will cover any new information revealed in the new document dump, including hundreds of messages Summers and Epstein exchanged regarding women, politics, and Harvard-related initiatives. 

Several other prominent Harvard faculty also appeared in the documents, including Harvard Law School professor emeritus Alan M. Dershowitz and English professor emerita Elisa F. New, who is married to Summers, the Crimson reports. 

The cache of documents released last week added to a long paper trail detailing ties between Epstein and prominent Harvard affiliates.

In the documents, New discussed her personal projects at length with Epstein, soliciting thousands of dollars in funding from the child sex trafficker several times — years after Harvard said it had stopped taking contributions from Epstein.

In one 2014 exchange, New and Epstein discussed a potential $500,000 gift to Poetry in America, a television show and digital initiative she spearheaded. She also accepted an unspecified amount of money from Leon Black, an executive at private equity giant Apollo, in a gift that she wrote Epstein helped broker.

“It really means a lot to me, all financial help aside, Jeffrey, that you are rooting for me and thinking about me,” she wrote in December 2015.

So Epstein was advising Summers on how to cheat on his wife, while also discussing fundraising with said wife.

*  *  *

Grab a solid knife that was hand-made in the USA (limited stock, almost sold out)

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 16:12

Venezuela Sentences Doctor To 30 Years For WhatsApp Message

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Venezuelan socialist regime has just sentenced a 65-year-old doctor, Marggie Orozco, to 30 years in prison for criticizing the regime of socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro in a WhatsApp voice note in 2024.

Orozco was reportedly found guilty of “treason to the fatherland, incitement to hatred, and conspiracy” in complaining about the regime’s distribution of the often hard-to-find domestic gas cylinders in her community.

She has already suffered two heart attacks in the last two years, including one while in prison.

Some on the left, including members of the Chicago Teachers’ Union, have praised Venezuela despite being a brutal authoritarian regime.

This conviction was notably under the regime’s “anti-hate speech” law for those spreading “hateful content.”

As many in the West denounce this conviction, it is important to note that Western countries use the same ill-defined laws to punish citizens in their own countries for “inciting hatred” or spreading dangerous disinformation.

In the United Kingdom, a person was convicted for having “toxic ideologies.” A woman in the UK was arrested for silently praying near an abortion clinic.

Canada has used the same rationales as Russia for punishing its citizens for political views.

The difference appears not to be the limits on free speech but who is yielding these powers.

It is like arguing that your country may have the same authoritarian laws, but it is a benign authoritarianism.

If the Orozco case disgusts you, you should also be disgusted by Western countries and the European Union wielding the same powers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 15:25

'Massive Shift' In US-Korea Relations After Trump Gets Seoul To Stop Targeting Tech

Last month we noted that South Korea has been effectively running a racket to extract money from Big Tech through the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) - which, taking a note from the EU, has repeatedly targeted US firms with massive fines over various business practices. For years, the targeted industries have argued that Korean “network usage fees,” mandatory billing rules, app-store regulations, digital-platform laws, and privacy rulings were crafted to disadvantage foreign competitors while protecting national champions.

President Donald Trump walks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung as they prepare to attend a bilateral lunch meeting at the Gyeongju National Museum on October 29, 2025 in Gyeongju, South Korea. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

The longstanding U.S. - Korea alliance has operated within a familiar structure: Washington provided unconditional military protection, while Seoul pursued autonomous industrial and regulatory policies - occasionally at the expense of U.S. firms. The KFTC in particular developed a reputation among American technology, pharmaceutical, and automotive companies as an aggressive, often unpredictable enforcer whose investigations and fines disproportionately targeted foreign market leaders. In sectors ranging from app stores to semiconductors, U.S. firms routinely complained of a regulatory process that lacked transparency, due-process standards, and basic recognition of attorney-client privilege.

In 2021, they fined Google $177 over alleged anti-competitive practices in Android licensing. In 2023,  Apple faced a $22 million fine for keeping developers in the Apple payment ecosystem. In 2024, the KFTC launched probes into Amazon and Google over alleged preferential treatment in online advertising and search results, which they said could disadvantage Korean firms. 

They've also targeted Qualcomm, Meta, Tesla and other US firms, leaving many wondering whether Korea's antitrust apparatus was deploying economic nationalism under the guise of competition enforcement. Investigations were often launched under political pressure, imposed fines were regularly among the highest in the world, and procedural protections were thin compared to OECD norms.

Not Anymore...

During President Donald Trump's October visit to the Republic of Korea, things were quickly straightened out. In a Nov. 13 press release, the White House writes:

“The United States and the ROK commit to ensure that U.S. companies are not discriminated against and do not face unnecessary barriers in laws and policies concerning digital services, including network usage fees and online platform regulations.”

So - Korea will need to keep their attack dog on a leash. To that end: 

“The ROK commits to provide additional procedural fairness provisions in competition proceedings, including the recognition of attorney-client privilege.”

This further neuters the KFTC, an institution that historically did not offer the evidentiary protections common in U.S. or EU jurisdictions. American companies have long complained that Korean antitrust proceedings allowed investigators access to internal legal communications - a structural disadvantage that no domestic firm in the United States or Europe would be forced to accept. 

As a member of the Trade Subcommittee, ensuring U.S. companies are treated fairly when operating abroad is crucial. That’s why I introduced bipartisan legislation addressing the Republic of Korea’s harmful digital trade barriers earlier this year.

I’m grateful to President…

— Rep. Carol Miller (@RepCarolMiller) November 18, 2025

Beyond the KFTC, Seoul’s commitments under the new Korea Strategic Trade and Investment framework seem like a great deal for America:

• $150 billion in U.S.-approved investments in shipbuilding

• $200 billion more under a coming MOU

• A $36 billion Boeing aircraft purchase

• $25 billion in U.S. defense acquisitions

• $33 billion in support for U.S. Forces Korea

While the US is no longer separating defense and economics - it's explicitly linking security cooperation to regulatory reciprocity, and makes clear that a strong alliance requires a fair economic relationship.

Carrot and Stick

Politico reports that if Korea walks away from the agreement, they could launch a '301 probe' 

According to three people close to the discussions who were granted anonymity to disclose private conversations, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and other administration officials have repeatedly warned they could launch a 301 probe if Seoul walks away from that particular part of the agreement.

Greer most recently issued that warning during discussions leading up to last month’s summit between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, as South Korean negotiators hedged on proposals the U.S. believes would expose tech behemoths like Google, Apple and Meta to heavy fines. He also said something similar at a September meeting with South Korean Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo, the people said.

The pressure campaign is part of the administration’s wider effort to push back on foreign regulations aimed at reining in the power of large digital platforms — a model pioneered by the European Union and its Digital Markets Act. Last week, the Trump administration unveiled trade agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador that include requirements that those countries reject digital services taxes. 

That said, "Administration officials and U.S. tech industry allies are expressing confidence that Lee’s government won’t renege on that agreement."

"After all the hard work that went into last week’s trade deal, it’s unimaginable that Korean officials would let the KFTC move forward with legislation or regulatory actions that would blow everything up and inevitably lead back to higher tariffs and escalating tensions," one corporate lobbyist close to the White House told the outlet. 

A White House official told Politico that the possibility of a Section 301 "came up" during the talks, but that the US was not considering a "heavy-handed approach" at this time.

"The Koreans understood that tariffs are … a stick we carry," the official added. 

 

Meanwhile, after years of Washington blocking Seoul's ambitions for nuclear-powered attack subs, Trump gave them the green light.

A 3,000-ton diesel submarine during a ceremony to hand it over to the Navy, at the HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. in Ulsan, South Korea, in 2024.Credit...Yonhap/EPA, via Shutterstock

According to Trump's first National Security Advisor, Ambassador Robert O'Brien, "The US-ROK trade agreement signals a massive shift in how Korean officials are now expected to treat US firms. It officially recognizes the need to address a history of aggressive, discriminatory policies against American tech companies—including raids & unfounded criminal prosecutions. This deal should effectively kill any new legislation in Korea targeting online platforms, consistent with explicit warnings from President @realDonaldTrump."

The US-ROK trade agreement signals a massive shift in how Korean officials are now expected to treat US firms. It officially recognizes the need to address a history of aggressive, discriminatory policies against American tech companies—including raids & unfounded criminal…

— Robert C. O'Brien (@robertcobrien) November 17, 2025

There are still issues to be hammered out with the sub deal; where they'll be made and how to secure fuel for them considering Washington's longstanding stance on not allowing Seoul to enrich uranium or reprocess spent nuclear fuel (their 26 nuclear reactors are all powered by imported fuel). Seoul, however, wants to enrich uranium themselves to build its own fuel supply chain and bolster its energy security. 

Whatever happens with that, it's clear that Seoul is aligning its industrial future more tightly with the United States than at any point in modern history.

Korea has been officially put on notice. Treat American companies poorly, threaten our workers, raid our firms’ offices, and President Trump will push back.

It’s insane we’ve tolerated this kind of behavior from an ally, but even greater that the new trade deal KlLLS any… pic.twitter.com/7LnZCAthj0

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) November 16, 2025

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 15:05

FOMC Minutes Expose Fractured Fed; "Many" See No Tariff Inflation, "Several" Fear Disorderly Drop In Stocks

Since the last FOMC meeting (Oct 29th), gold is the best performing asset (along with the dollar) as bonds, stocks, and oil are all down notably...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut odds for the December meeting continued to tumble after Powell's hawkish comments (and the follow-up FedSpeak). Today saw BLS confirm no more payrolls data before the next Fed meeting and that pushed expectations even more hawkishly lower...

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, The Fed cut rates by 25bps in the October meeting to 3.75-4.00%, with two dissenters: 1 hawkish (Schmid) and 1 dovish (Miran). Other non-voters have been out recently suggesting they did not support a cut.

While markets have made up their minds on the rate-cut decision, as we noted earlier, we'll be watching for color on the hawk/dove split; but, most eyes will be on discussions around The Fed's balance sheet (the end of QT) and the level of reserves being somewhere between 'abundant' and 'ample'.

So, what does The Fed want us to know it was thinking during the meeting?

On the rate-cut decision, there is a hawkish bias ('Several' is less than 'many')

• *FED: `SEVERAL' SAID DECEMBER CUT `COULD WELL BE' APPROPRIATE

  • Several participants said another cut in December “could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected” before the next meeting.

• *FED: `MANY' SAW DECEMBER RATE CUT AS LIKELY NOT APPROPRIATE

  • “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year,” the minutes said.

The doves are doing God's work on the jobs market...

"Most participants suggested that, in moving to a more neutral policy stance, the Committee was helping forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions."

But... the hawks are there too to warn you off...

"Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as implying a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective."

AI/Valuations are in the back of their minds...

Some participants commented on stretched asset valuations in financial markets, with several of these participants highlighting the possibility of a disorderly fall in equity prices, especially in the event of an abrupt reassessment of the possibilities of AI-related technology.

A couple of participants cited risks associated with high levels of corporate borrowing.

Finally, and perhaps the most notable line was with regard to inflation...

Simply put, the Minutes suggest that tariff inflation is no longer a pressing concern...

"Many of these participants also judged that, with more evidence having accumulated that the effect on overall inflation of this year’s higher tariffs would likely be limited, it was appropriate for the Committee to ease its policy stance in response to downside risks to employment."

...which helps explain why so "many" of The Fed are increasingly focused on jobs.

Full Breakdown:

On current outlook:

• Participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased since the first half of the year.

• Many participants agreed that the Committee should be deliberate in its policy decisions against the backdrop of these two-sided risks and reduced availability of key economic data.

• Most participants suggested that, in moving to a more neutral policy stance, the Committee was helping forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions.

• Many of these participants also judged that, with more evidence having accumulated that the effect on overall inflation of this year’s higher tariffs would likely be limited, it was appropriate for the Committee to ease its policy stance in response to downside risks to employment.

• Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as implying a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective.

• Participants judged that a careful balancing of risks was required and agreed on the importance of well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations in achieving the Committee’s dual-mandate objectives.

On the neutral rate and financial conditions

• Some said policy would remain restrictive even after a 0.25ppt cut.

• Some, citing resilient activity, supportive conditions or real-rate estimates, said policy was not clearly restrictive.

• Some remarked that financial conditions we re supportive of activity.

On Inflation

• Participants noted inflation had moved up and remained somewhat above target; core inflation stayed elevated.

• Several said inflation excluding tariff effects was close to target.

• Many said inflation had been above target for some time with little sign of timely return to 2%.

• Most noted further rate cuts could add to risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as lack of commitment to 2% inflation objective

• Several cited persistent core non-housing services inflation as keeping inflation above 2%.

• Many expected further pickup in core goods inflation from tariff pass-through.

• Several highlighted uncertainty around tariff effects and firms' delayed pricing.

• Several reported businesses planned gradual price increases due to higher tariff-related input costs.

• A few said productivity gains via automation or AI could limit pass-through.

• A few said a softer labor market would restrain pressures.

• A couple said lower immigration would lessen housing demand and strengthen housing disinflation.

• Many noted risks that prolonged above-target inflation could raise longer-term expectations.

Labor market & growth

• Participants observed slowed job gains and a higher unemployment rate before the shutdown.

• Participants saw indicators showing gradual softening without sharp deterioration.

• Many attributed the slowdown to reduced labour supply and less labour demand amid uncertainty.

• Many said structural factors, including Al-related investment, were dampening labor demand.

• Participants generally expected further gradual softening with less dynamism.

• Several warned low turnover and hiring hesitancy posed downside risks.

• A few saw rising unemployment in sensitive groups or concentrated job gains as signalling broader weakness.

• Some noted persistent divergence between subdued job growth and moderate GDP growth, possibly due to productivity gains and demographic constraints.

• Participants noted moderate activity; many reported firmer consumer spending.

• Many highlighted divergence across income groups, with high-income households supporting consumption and lower-income households showing price sensitivity.

• A couple warned that reliance on high-income spending created vulnerability.

• A couple noted continued housing-market weakness despite some stabilisation.

• Many highlighted strong technology and Al-related investment.

• A few said lower business taxes or regulatory easing would support activity.

• Some remarked that financial conditions we re supportive.

• A few cited ongoing agricultural headwinds from low crop prices, high input costs and weak foreign demand.

Balance sheet & QT & liquidity

• Almost all said it was appropriate to conclude runoff on 1 December or could support doing so.

• Most participants favored a fed portfolio matching the composition of treasuries outstanding

Asset prices:

• Several participants highlighted possibility of disorderly fall in stock prices, especially in event of abrupt reassessment of ai- related prospects.

Housing market and real estate commentary

• A couple noted continued housing-market weakness and affordability constraints.

Agricultural commentary

• A few cited headwinds from low crop prices, elevated input costs and weaker foreign demand.

Discussions of Artificial Intelligence

• A few participants suggested that potential recent productivity gains achieved through automation and AI may help businesses support their profit margins and limit the extent to which cost increases are passed on to consumers

• Many participants remarked that structural factors such as investment related to AI and other productivity-enhancing technologies may be contributing to softer labor demand.

• Some participants noted the apparent divergence between subdued job growth and moderate GDP growth, with several suggesting that this pattern might persist over time as advances in AI boost productivity growth while demographic factors constrain labor supply.

• Regarding the business sector, many participants highlighted strong investment in technology, particularly spending related to AI and data centers. Some participants suggested that those investments could boost productivity and thus aggregate supply.

• Broad equity indexes continued to rise over the period, with the largest technology companies performing strongly on market participants’ optimism about artificial intelligence (AI). The manager noted that rising stock prices were consistent with expectations for continued robust growth in earnings.

Read the full Minutes below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 15:00

"This Is A National Emergency" - US Govt To Buy 10 Large, New Nuclear Reactors

Hot on the heels of news that it will invest "hundreds of billions" in loans to the nuclear power industry, including one already disbursed loan for $1BN to restart Three Mile Island, Bloomberg reported that the US government also plans to buy and own as many as 10 new, large nuclear reactors that could be paid for using Japan’s $550BN funding pledge, part of the Trump admin's existential push to meet surging demand for electricity

The Energy Department’s chief of staff, Carl Coe, made comments today detailing the unusual arrangement related to the $550 billion in funding for US projects announced by Japan, Bloomberg reports.

“The role of having the government involved in private markets is sacrosanct — you just don’t do it,” Coe said at an energy conference hosted by the Tennessee Advanced Energy Business Council. “But this is a national emergency.”

The announcement sparked speculation which companies would benefit from the federal government's upcoming purchases, which as we said yesterday, would amount to a flood of capital for the nuclear sector. 

It is still unclear whether the funding commitments made by Japan, announced last month as part of a trade deal framework with the US, will come to fruition. In all, Japan has agreed to invest some $332 billion for energy projects in the United States, according to the White House. That pledge, in addition to Westinghouse’s new AP1000 reactors, include a new breed of smaller nuclear reactors, as well new power plants, electric transmission projects and pipelines. 

Below we list some of the most likely beneficiaries:

• Cameco, CCJ - Currently a 49% owner of Westinghouse. They, along with Brookfield Asset Management, are already coordinating with the US government for building out the only large reactor design currently in discussion – the 1,100 MWe AP1000. The only other large reactor with a partially US-owned design is the boiling water reactor from GE-Hitachi. Those reactor designs haven't been marketed for development by GE Venova for years, while the company has instead focused on their 300 MWe design, the BWRX-300.

• BWX Technologies, BWXT - While this company doesn’t currently have much involvement with the construction of AP1000 reactors, due to this new project being federally driven, there could be an increased role for the US government’s primary nuclear contractor for heavy fabrication or manufacturing.

• Mirion Technologies MIR - They are one of the leaders in radiation safety and monitoring equipment, and are one of Westinghouse’s primary contractors for reactor instrumentation. Their recent acquisition of Paragon adds to the suite of monitoring equipment they have to offer for new plants.

• Flowserve, FLS - While still a comparatively small portion of their overall revenue, Flowserve is the leading provider of critical pumps and valves for nuclear primary and secondary systems. In their lastest earning report, they pointed to a potential $10 billion revenue stream of nuclear contracts for which they think they are one of the leading competitors.

• Centrus Energy, LEU - They are on the cusp of finally commencing their Low Enriched Uranium (LEU), typically used by large commercial reactors like the AP1000, and High-Assay LEU (HALEU), used by most small advanced reactors, capacity expansion projects after multiple pledges for support made by South Korea and the US government. Additional task orders under the DOE’s uranium enrichment programs are also anticipated in the coming weeks.

• Silex Systems, SILXY (SLX.ASX) - Silex owns 51% of Global Laser Enrichment, a company using lasers to enrich uranium at a test facility in North Carolina, with a fuel facility license currently under review for a commercial plan in Kentucky. They are actively producing hundreds of kilograms of LEU for the calendar year at their facility in North Carolina, and have deep integration with the DOE to produce additional quantities of uranium for additional enrichment.

• Domestically owned and operated uranium mining companies, UEC, EU, URG, UUUU - The four major American uranium companies stand to benefit from the federal effort to expand domestic mining of uranium, not just for a commercial fleet expansion effort, but for defense purposes, as uranium mined in the United States is the only ore that can be used for use in nuclear weapons and US Navy reactors.

As we have discussed extensively in recent weeks, and as the Trump admin has picked up, there are now flashing red alerts about a shortage of electricity needed for energy-hungry data centers that power artificial intelligence and for a potential resurgence of domestic manufacturing. On his first day in office, President Donald Trump declared an energy emergency, unlocking new domestic powers to fast-track pipelines, expand power grids and save struggling coal plants.

It has been more than a decade since the US last broke ground on a large-scale nuclear power plant that came online. Most of America’s energy industry wrote off for dead the notoriously expensive projects after Southern Co., the last utility to build a new plant, went $16 billion over budget and seven years behind schedule building its Vogtle project.

Still, the AI boom has created new life for the big plants. Earlier this year, Xcel Chief Executive Officer Bob Frenzel raised the idea that the projects could come back in vogue.

It is still unclear whether the funding commitments made by Japan, announced last month as part of a trade deal framework with the US, will come to fruition. In all, Japan has agreed to invest some $332 billion for energy projects in the United States, according to the White House. That pledge, in addition to Westinghouse’s new AP1000 reactors, include a new breed of smaller nuclear reactors, as well new power plants, electric transmission projects and pipelines.

The problem, as anyone who is familiar with Japan's sovereign debt and chronic budget deficits, is that the country simply does not have this money, which likely means that while the Trump admin will use Tokyo as a smokescreen for money purposes, the actual funds - tens if not hundreds of billions of them - will come from Uncle Sam's own treasury in the coming years. 

The Energy Department didn’t immediately respond to a Bloomberg request for more details. Coe, in his remarks at the conference, said lots of details remained to be decided, but expressed confidence the nuclear reactors would come through.

“We’re trying to decide where to put them,” Coe said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 14:45

Trump Urges Adoption Of Single Federal Standard On AI Regulation

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said the United States should adopt one federal standard for governing artificial intelligence (AI), saying it’s important for the United States to stay ahead of China in the race for AI dominance.

In a Truth Social post on Nov. 18, Trump said the United States needs a single AI standard rather than “a patchwork of 50 state regulatory regimes,” warning that state-level rules are stifling the country’s AI growth.

“Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the ‘HOTTEST’ in the World, but overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Major Growth ‘Engine’,” he wrote.

Trump said some states tried to “embed DEI ideology into AI models,” producing what he described as “woke AI.” DEI refers to diversity, equity, and inclusion.

“If we don’t, then China will easily catch us in the AI race. Put it in the NDAA, or pass a separate Bill, and nobody will ever be able to compete with America,” he stated, referring to the National Defense Authorization Act.

His statement came amid reports that House Republican leaders were planning to include language in the NDAA that would prevent states from regulating AI.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has opposed the plan, saying that stripping states of AI regulatory power would be “a subsidy to Big Tech” and would block states from “protecting against online censorship of political speech, predatory applications that target children, violations of intellectual property rights, and data center intrusions on power/water resources.”

“The rise of AI is the most significant economic and cultural shift occurring at the moment; denying the people the ability to channel these technologies in a productive way via self-government constitutes federal government overreach and lets technology companies run wild. Not acceptable,” DeSantis stated on X.

AI Dominance Pursued

Since taking office on Jan. 20, Trump has pursued policies aimed at securing U.S. dominance in AI development, including efforts to remove regulatory barriers on AI developers.

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The White House’s “AI Action Plan,” released in July, states that the country seeks to build “the most powerful AI systems in the world,” and recommends that the federal government block AI-related funding to states with AI regulations.

“AI is too far important to smother in bureaucracy at this early stage, whether at the state or Federal level. The Federal government should not allow AI-related Federal funding to be directed toward states with burdensome AI regulations that waste these funds, but should also not interfere with states’ rights to pass prudent laws that are not unduly restrictive to innovation,” it stated.

In July, Trump signed an executive order targeting what he called “woke AI.” The order directs federal agencies to procure only large language models that are “truth-seeking” and politically neutral—AI models that the administration deems “do not manipulate responses in favor of ideological dogmas such as DEI.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 14:25

Army Announces Next Steps On Janus Program For Next-Generation Nuclear Energy

As part of next steps for the Janus Program, the Department of Army said that it has selected nine installations for consideration in which to site microreactor power plants, and the Defense Innovation Unit released an Area of Interest to solicit commercial solutions for advanced nuclear power technologies.

The Janus Program, the Army’s next-generation nuclear power program, aims to deliver secure, resilient, and reliable energy to support national defense installations and critical missions in accordance with EO 14299 Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security. In partnership with the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), the program will build commercial microreactors through a milestone-based contracting model to accelerate delivery of advanced energy solutions to the warfighters.

Janus Program Site Selection

The Army identified nine sites through comprehensive analysis and on-site assessment to identify optimal locations for initial deployment. The process evaluated mission critical installations, energy requirements and resiliency gaps, power infrastructure, environmental and technical considerations. These sites mark the first step in expanding national energy resilience through next-generation nuclear technology. Listed in alphabetical order, the selected sites are:

1. Fort Benning
2. Fort Bragg
3. Fort Campbell
4. Fort Drum
5. Fort Hood
6. Fort Wainwright
7. Holston Army Ammunition Plant
8. Joint Base Lewis-McChord
9. Redstone Arsenal

While the final number and location for these microreactors on Army installations will be determined as part of the acquisition process, the Army is committed to maximizing the number of sites based on technical feasibility, site suitability, and available resources.

“These early site selections align with the Department of War’s goal of accelerating the pace of deploying on-site nuclear generation at our installations,” said HON Jordan Gillis, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment. “Through the use of the Army’s unique nuclear regulatory authorities, we are deploying a resilient, secure, and reliable energy supply for critical defense operations and in support of the most lethal land-based fighting force in the world.”

Microreactor power plants represent a significant technological advancement, in safety, security and waste management. They are safe by design, not by intervention protocols. The Janus Program is leveraging the Department of Energy and its network of National Labs to ensure the appropriate expertise is applied to the evaluation of proposed designs, operational plans, and emergency preparedness plans.

The rollout of Janus technology will occur in stages as the Army validates lessons learned and ensures safe, efficient implementation. These projects will be self-contained and protected appropriately. All projects will comply with the applicable federal, state, and local regulations, and leverage the safety features inherent in next-generation reactor designs. We do not anticipate any significant impact to installation land use.

The Army shares a commitment to public safety and transparency with our host communities and recognizes that the communities surrounding these installations have vested interest in their operations. Specific timelines for each location will be announced in future updates, as the team cooperates with military installations, residents, and the surrounding communities to keep all stakeholders informed. The Army is committed to providing transparent information throughout the planning process and welcomes public engagement and feedback.

Defense Innovation Unit Area of Interest

The Army has executed a Memorandum of Agreement with the DIU to utilize its Commercial Solutions Opening (CSO) process and Other Transaction Authority (OTA) to begin the solicitation process which will result in awarding select vendors Other Transactions (OTs) to execute on the Janus Program goals. An Area of Interest (AOI) notification has been released via DIU’s website https://www.diu.mil/work-with-us/open-solicitations to solicit industry concepts for deployment of advanced nuclear technologies. The AOI will gather technical and operational information from industry regarding deployment and use of microreactors on military installations to begin the CSO process.

"We’ve established a great partnership with the U.S. Army. DIU is ready and excited to leverage our rapid CSO process to execute the Janus Program in collaboration with our government and industry partners,” said DIU Energy Portfolio Director, Dr. Andrew Higier. “This collaboration will deliver advanced nuclear energy to Army installations, ensuring their most critical missions always have resilient and ready power."

“The Janus Program is taking its first step toward pairing specific nuclear reactor designs to specific U.S. Army installations,” said Dr. Jeff Waksman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment. “We will move to bending metal as quickly as possible, leveraging the enormous amount of technical talent gathered to execute this program.”

The release of the AOI and site selection demonstrate the Janus Program’s accelerated pace for the revitalization of American industrial capacity and technological leadership. By prioritizing the optimal installations to initially support microreactor power plants and working with industry to efficiently deploy next generation nuclear capabilities on our installations, these initiatives represent a substantial investment in the future of energy security for the Army and the Nation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 13:45

"What Has Become Of Us": Rosie O'Donnell May Have Just Handed Trump A Golden Defamation Lawsuit

Authored by Jonthan Turley,

I have previously expressed skepticism over some defamation cases against the media brought by President Donald Trump under existing case law. However, comedian Rosie O’Donnell may have supplied the President with a another defamation case if she cannot back up sensational claims made against the President to her 2.9 million TikTok followers. She states as a fact that the President is an “adjudicated rapist” and settled child abuse cases.

O’Donnell seems to spend much of her days in a constant rave about Trump, Republicans, and the demise of the United States from her new home in Ireland. That is fine and an exercise of free speech. However, it may have crossed the line into defamation in her latest posting.

O’Donnell stated:

“Did you think it a million years that they would reelect a man who orchestrated an insurrection against the government? They would reelect that guy with all the charges of sex abuse? — the adjudicated rapist…And then I just saw this thing today about all the cases he’s settled with children, children’s families, accusations about him, that he chose to settle.”

She added:

“When are we going to be able to go, ‘We’re grown up enough to understand that this kind of deviant, psychotic, mentally ill behavior goes on at the highest level sometimes, and no matter where it goes on, it is our duty to stop it,’” O’Donnell continued in her unhinged rant…Shame, people. Shame on what has become of us.”

Notably, at least eleven months ago, O’Donnell called Trump a “rapist” and a “serial pedophile rapist.”

Trump previously sued over the claim that he is a rapist. He lost such a case against E. Jean Carroll after a judge ruled that her claim to have been raped by Trump was “substantially true.” The judge wrote: “The only issue on which the jury did not find in Ms Carroll’s favour was whether she proved that Mr Trump ‘raped’ her within the narrow, technical meaning of that term in the New York penal law.”

Nevertheless, Trump was not legally “adjudicated” to be a rapist. The addition of the word “adjudicated” could move the claim outside of mere opinion.

Even without that word, it is considered potentially defamatory to claim that Trump is, in fact, a rapist despite the earlier ruling in New York. MSNBC and the show “Morning Joe,” for example, quickly retracted a statement that Trump was a “rapist.”

The earlier denial of the defamation case certainly would help O’Donnell, but it is not dispositive. More importantly, that is not all that she said.

The second claim is that Trump settled with the “children’s families” over abuse cases.

It is not clear what the basis for this allegation is, but Reuters reported months ago about fake headlines on the Internet claiming that prosecutors were considering “child molestation charges” against Trump.

It is not clear if O’Donnell can produce support for the claim. If she cannot, it would certainly constitute “per se” defamation.

The common law has long recognized per se categories of defamation where damages are presumed and special damages need not be proven.  These include: (1) disparaging a person’s professional character or standing; (2) alleging a person is unchaste; (3) alleging that a person has committed a criminal act or act of moral turpitude; (4) alleging a person has a sexual or loathsome disease; and (5) attacking a person’s business or professional reputation.

Claiming that Trump settled child abuse cases would certainly trigger a couple of these categories.

The United Kingdom is generally a better jurisdiction to bring defamation cases than the United States, which has stronger free speech and free press protections.

In the United States, any such action would have to be brought under the higher standard. In New York Times v. Sullivan, the Supreme Court established the actual malice standard, requiring public officials to shoulder the higher burden of proving defamation. Under that standard, an official would have to show either actual knowledge of its falsity or a reckless disregard of the truth. That standard was later extended to public figures.

If O’Donnell had no credible sources for this claim, it would appear to be clearly a reckless disregard of the truth.

That she said this to millions of followers only magnifies the general damages presumed in such cases.

Unless O’Donnell can argue truth as a defense with credible support for such settlements, she may have just given Trump a golden opportunity to pursue his long-time critic. There is no love lost between these two, but there could soon be a defamation action.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 11:30

Cloudflare Blames Database Error For Outage That Took Down 20% Of The Web

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Internet services provider Cloudflare says that a fault in its bot detection system triggered an outage that took down around 20% of webpages, including several crypto platforms.

Cloudflare said in a post-mortem statement on Tuesday that a “feature file” used by its Bot Management System to fight off cyberattacks grew beyond its normal limit, leading to a failure in Cloudflare’s software.

“We are sorry for the impact to our customers and to the Internet in general. Given Cloudflare’s importance in the Internet ecosystem any outage of any of our systems is unacceptable.”

The company initially suspected the incident was caused by a hyper-scale Distributed Denial of Service attack, but confirmed there was no cyberattack or malicious activity.

Cloudflare handles roughly 20% of internet traffic and powers around one-third of the top 10,000 websites, apps and services.

Its outage took out the websites for Coinbase, Blockchain.com, Ledger, BitMEX, Toncoin, Arbiscan, and DefiLlama, as well as X and ChatGPT, leading some crypto commentators to remark on the crypto industry’s reliance on centralized systems, some of which also went offline when Amazon Web Services suffered a network outage last month. 

Source: Nader Dabit

A spokesperson for EthStorage, which offers a product allowing Ethereum to be used as a web server, told Cointelegraph that the AWS and Cloudflare outages show “centralized infrastructure will always create single points of failure.”

“A complete decentralized web stack is needed more than ever,” the company said.

Vitalik Buterin wants decentralization prioritized

Last Wednesday, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin authored a “Trustless Manifesto,” which called on industry builders to never sacrifice decentralization in pursuit of adoption.

Buterin and Ethereum Foundation researchers Yoav Weiss and Marissa Posner, said crypto platforms sacrifice trustlessness from the moment that they integrate a hosted node or centralized relayer, explaining that while it feels harmless, each new checkpoint becomes a potential chokepoint.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 10:45

Surprise Crude Draw Stabilizes Oil Prices After Early Plunge On Russia Peace Talk Headlines

Oil prices tumbled overnight following API's report suggesting a large build in crude inventories, , which would take oil stored in commercial tanks to the highest level in more than five months, if confirmed by official data this morning.

The supply buildup may help cushion the impact of US sanctions against Russian producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC that are set to kick in within days, part of efforts to raise the pressure against Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

An Axios report that Washington has been working in consultation with the Kremlin to draft a new plan also eased supply concerns, though Moscow denied any talks.

Additionally, Politico reported that the White House is expecting a new peace agreement with Russia by the end of November, which could bring the war with Ukraine to an end.

While on the topic of Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told journalists that while the country has under-utilized its OPEC+ allocation recently, within the coming months, Russia will be able to increase oil production to the level permitted under the OPEC+ agreement, he said.

"I think within the next few months, perhaps by the end of the year, maybe at the beginning of next year, we will see how the companies [respond]," he said.

"In November, production will be higher than in October. I cannot say exactly by how much right now, but there is an increase."

So will the official data confirm API's report?

API

• Crude +4.4mm

• Cushing -800k

• Gasoline +1.5mm

• Distillates +600k

DOE

• Crude -3.426mm

• Cushing -698k

• Gasoline +2.327mm - first build in seven weeks

• Distillates +171k

Shocker: while API reported a big build, the official data showed a large crude inventory drawdown last week. Additionally, Gasoline stocks rose for the first time in seven weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

Cushing stocks are hovering near 'tank bottoms' - so much for the SPR rebuild?

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production remains near record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI fell to around $59 overnight and is stabilizing there after the official data report...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Prices were also pressured after failure to break past their 50-day moving average in recent days.

The global benchmark came within two cents of that marker on Tuesday, before retreating sharply on Wednesday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 10:38