Chelsea Clinton Mocked After Using Texas Flood Disaster To Promote Clinton Global Initiative

X users were very skeptical Wednesday afternoon after Chelsea Clinton—currently a board member of the controversial Clinton Global Initiative (CGI)—announced that CGI members had been mobilized to flood-ravaged Kerr County, Texas.

"Members of the @ClintonGlobal community are on the ground in Texas, supporting families, communities and ongoing search and rescue efforts," Clinton wrote in a post on X. The post was heavily ratioed.

Members of the @ClintonGlobal community are on the ground in Texas, supporting families, communities and ongoing search and rescue efforts.

Thread:

— Chelsea Clinton (@ChelseaClinton) July 9, 2025

"Avoid anything promoted by the Clinton family," one X user said, referring back to a 2016 BBC article titled "What really happened with the Clintons in Haiti?" 

Avoid anything promoted by the Clinton family.https://t.co/cZpamJXmC8

— No News is Good News (@KevinEAbner) July 9, 2025

The BBC article cited Haitian activist Dahoud Andre, who had some nasty words to say about the Clintons: "The Clinton family, they are crooks, they are thieves, they are liars." 

CGI has had its fair share of controversies—from cash-for-access and State Department overlap to the Uranium One deal and Haiti earthquake funding. The nonprofit has been under scrutiny for years.

Natural disasters are prime opportunities for nonprofits to market themselves to new donors—in fact, it's big business. And with recent USAID funding cuts, one has to wonder how many of these organizations are now struggling.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 20:30

'American Hero': Coast Guard Swimmer Praised For Saving 165 From Flood At Camp Mystic

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A Coast Guard rescue swimmer, Scott Ruskan, is being hailed as a hero for helping to rescue more than 160 people at Camp Mystic during flash floods that ravaged central Texas over the weekend.

Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said Ruskan directly saved 165 people from the floodwaters that inundated Camp Mystic, a Christian girls’ camp near the Guadalupe River. He was the only triage coordinator at the scene.

“Scott Ruskan is an American hero. His selfless courage embodies the spirit and mission of the [U.S. Coast Guard],” Noem stated on social media platform X, noting that it was Ruskan’s first rescue mission as a Coast Guard rescue swimmer.

The rescue team was dispatched from the Coast Guard Air Station in Corpus Christi after receiving a report at 5:57 a.m. on July 4 about rising floodwaters near Kerrville, Texas, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

In an interview with Good Morning America, Ruskan recalled that nearly 200 people, mostly children, were later found in need of rescue as floodwaters surged through the area.

“I got on scene, boots on the ground at Camp Mystic. I kind of discovered I was the only person there as far as first responders go. So I had about 200, kids mostly, all scared, terrified, cold, having probably the worst day of their life,” he said.

“I just kind of needed to triage them, get them to a higher level of care and get them off the flood zone.”

U.S. Army National Guard helicopters used the camp’s archery and soccer fields as landing zones during the rescue. Ruskan said he “was kind of the main guy as far as grabbing people,” taking groups of 10 to 15 people, including some adults, at a time to the aircraft, which then airlifted them to the landing zones for safety.

The U.S. Coast Guard stated that Ruskan helped to evacuate a total of 230 victims at the scene. He also provided them with medical assistance during the rescue mission, according to a July 5 statement.

“The real heroes, I think, were the kids on the ground; those guys are heroic,” Ruskan said.

“They were dealing with some of the worst times of their lives, and they were staying strong, and that helped inspire me to get in there and help them.”

A sheriff's deputy pauses while combing through the banks of the Guadalupe River near Camp Mystic after a flash flood swept through the area in Hunt, Texas, on July 5, 2025. Julio Cortez/AP Photo

Camp Mystic said that 27 campers and counselors lost their lives in the floods and that it had been in contact with local and state authorities in the search for missing campers and counselors.

“Our hearts are broken alongside our families that are enduring this unimaginable tragedy. We are praying for them constantly,” the camp said in a statement posted to its website.

The flash floods that swept through central Texas have left more than 100 people dead and at least 161 missing. Gov. Greg Abbott said during a July 8 press briefing that those figures are likely to rise, due in part to the area’s popularity with campers.

Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said that hundreds of first responders are on the scene in flooded areas around the Guadalupe River, with local, federal, and state personnel working to recover bodies or locate missing people.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 20:05

NASA Eyes Deep Staff Cuts In Major Agency Overhaul

Less than 24 hours after the Supreme Court cleared the way for the Trump administration to slash the bloated federal bureaucracy and gut agencies, Politico reports that thousands of senior-ranking NASA employees are set to exit in a massive restructuring.

Politico cited internal documents showing that NASA plans to cut 2,694 staff members through a combination of early retirement offers, buyouts, and deferred resignations.

Key details from the report include:

• 875 GS-15 employees, the agency's most senior civil servants, are among those leaving.

• 1,818 of the departing staff work in core mission roles; the remainder are in support functions, such as IT and finance.

• Departures are widespread, with Goddard Space Flight Center losing the most (607), followed by Johnson (366), Kennedy (311), and HQ (307).

"The departures follow a proposed White House budget for 2026 that would slash NASA's funding by 25 percent and cut over 5,000 staff," the report said, adding, "The cuts, if enacted by Congress, would force the agency to operate with the smallest budget and staff since the early 1960s."

Casey Dreier, chief of space policy at The Planetary Society, told the left-leaning outlet, "You're losing the managerial and core technical expertise of the agency." He asked: "What's the strategy and what do we hope to achieve here?"

The proposed large-scale reorganization and reduction comes a day after the Supreme Court announced President Trump can move ahead with plans to slash the federal workforce and dismantle federal agencies. 

NASA's role in America's space program has taken a back seat as private companies—most notably Elon Musk's SpaceX—have taken over the agency's launch capabilities. With private-sector innovation and cost-efficiency leading the way, rocket launches and the broader space industry have become a new frontier for capitalism.

"NASA remains committed to our mission as we work within a more prioritized budget," said NASA spokesperson Bethany Stevens. "We are working closely with the Administration to ensure that America continues to lead the way in space exploration, advancing progress on key goals, including the Moon and Mars."

The large-scale reorganization is fantastic news for America's commercial space industry, aiming to drive innovation and ensure U.S. leadership in the space race through the 2030s.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 19:40

Patriot Missile Stockpile A Fraction Of What Pentagon Needs As Trump Arms Ukraine

Via The Libertarian Institute

The ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have depleted US stockpiles of missile interceptors. The Pentagon has just a quarter of the Patriot missiles it needs.

According to the Guardian, "The United States only has about 25% of the Patriot missile interceptors it needs for all of the Pentagon’s military plans after burning through stockpiles in the Middle East in recent months, an alarming depletion that led to the Trump administration freezing the latest transfer of munitions to Ukraine."

Via AFP

US weapons manufacturers can only produce approximately 500 Patriot missiles per year. The US used dozens of interceptors to defend Israel from Iranian retaliatory attacks last month.

Additionally, the Pentagon engaged in its largest Patriot battle in history to repel a symbolic Iranian missile attack on the US airbase in Qatar.

The US stockpile of air and missile defenses has been drained to aid Ukraine during the war with Russia. Missile interceptors are in short supply in the West.

In May, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio told Congress that “The Ukrainians asked for air defense systems – Patriot systems, which, frankly, we don’t have.”

"In fact, if the Ukrainians asked for anything additional, they asked for air defense systems, Patriot systems, which, frankly, we do not have. But we cannot produce them fast enough. And one of the problems we face in Ukraine is that ammunition is being used up much faster than we can produce it," Rubio emphasized.

It is unclear if Trump reversed the Pentagon order to halt some arms transfers to Ukraine, including Patriot Missiles. During Monday’s dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump told reporters that he would “send some more weapons” to Ukraine.

❗️US and allies working to transfer Patriot systems to Ukraine, but lacking even for their own needs — Rubio

"In fact, if the Ukrainians asked for anything additional, they asked for air defense systems, Patriot systems, which, frankly, we do not have. But we cannot produce them… pic.twitter.com/WGtaU84SNB

— Zlatti71 (@Zlatti_71) May 20, 2025

Patriot systems have been a crucial part of Ukraine’s air defenses. However, Russia has developed missiles to counter Patriot interceptors with increasing effectiveness.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 19:15

Philly Trash Standoff Ends As City's Largest Municipal Union Reaches Tentative Agreement, Ending Strike

After more than a week of stalled trash collection, closed libraries, and disrupted city services, the City of Philadelphia and its largest municipal union have reached a tentative agreement, bringing an end to a major strike that began July 1, according to NBC News.

For an idea of exactly how many DC 33 workers are integral to Philadelphia, try walking more than 10 blocks on either Broad or Market Street, from City Hall in any direction, and count how many of these DC33 jackets you see. Philadelphians will tell you - they're everywhere, all the time. 

Nearly 10,000 members of District Council 33 (DC 33)—representing sanitation workers, 911 dispatchers, water department employees, and others—walked off the job after contract talks broke down. The union initially sought 8% annual raises over four years, totaling a 32% increase. The city had countered with a 7% total increase over three years.

Mayor Cherelle Parker announced the agreement early Wednesday morning, hours after both sides resumed negotiations Tuesday afternoon at the Community College of Philadelphia and worked through the night. “The work stoppage involving the District Council 33 and the City of Philadelphia is OVER,” Parker posted on social media. “We’re valuing our workforce and we’re safeguarding our city’s hard-earned fiscal stability at the same time. The strike is over!”

According to Parker, the deal—pending ratification by union members—combined with a one-year extension agreed to last fall, will raise DC 33 wages by 14% over her four-year term. “We’ll have much more to say about this historic deal tomorrow at City Hall,” she added.

While it is tough to distinguish trash piling up from the strike from the trash that's normally sitting on the street in Philadelphia, the lack of sanitation workers was starting to become a serious issue for the city.

NBC News writes that union officials told workers to return to their jobs Wednesday or “as soon as they can get to work,” according to DC 33 Executive Director Ernest Garrett and city Labor Relations Director Harold Boulware. DC 33 confirmed the strike’s end on Facebook: “The strike is over! Details forthcoming.”

While some city services were restored during the strike via court orders—including police dispatch and parts of the water department—others remained disrupted. Overflowing trash drop-off sites and library closures became visual reminders of the walkout. Public support for the union grew after headliners LL Cool J and Jazmine Sullivan both pulled out of the city’s July 4th Wawa Welcome America concert, refusing to cross picket lines.

Mayor Parker had previously emphasized her commitment to boosting city worker pay, noting that she had already secured a 5% increase for fiscal year 2025. “We need you, we need you, members of District Council 33,” she said in a news conference before the strike.

Although this deal marks a significant breakthrough, the agreement still requires a formal vote from DC 33 members before it is finalized.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 18:50

America Must Lead On Seafloor Mineral Development

Authored by Alina Voss via RealClearEnergy,

An untapped energy savior might just be sitting on the ocean floor. From AI to defense to clean energy, critical minerals remain pivotal to securing the United States’ competitive edge. Unfortunately, supply chains remain precariously dependent on foreign control, often from adversarial nations like China, leaving the country vulnerable to price shocks, trade restrictions, and supply disruption. While bipartisan efforts are gathering momentum around ideas to strengthen U.S. mineral security through efforts like reviving domestic mining, strategic alliances, and even recycling programs, land-based deposits alone may not be enough to meet the explosive growth in demand anticipated over the coming decades. We may need to look deeper for solutions, specifically to the ocean floor.

Polymetallic nodules, potato-sized rocks found scattered across the seafloor, particularly in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ), between Hawaii and Mexico. These nodules are rich in four of the same minerals needed to fuel clean energy supply chains: nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. Unlike terrestrial sources, which often contain only one or two of these metals and require energy-intensive processing, seafloor nodules contain all four in high purity and are loosely embedded in sediment, meaning they can be collected with minimal crushing or waste rock removal. The CCZ alone is estimated to hold more nickel and cobalt than all known land-based reserves combined. They represent a rare convergence between vast untapped mineral resources and emerging technology in deep sea robotics and AI-powered collection technologies. If harnessed responsibly, it could prove determinative for the future of American clean energy security.

To catalyze the emergence of a domestic seafloor minerals industry, federal support should mirror successful precedents in space and semiconductor policy (like the COTS program or CHIPS act) by leveraging targeted public-private partnerships, milestone-based R&D funding, and interagency coordination. These mechanisms align well with President Trump’s broader industrial strategy, especially his second-term push to reassert American leadership in critical technologies. The development of deep-sea collection systems requires the same precision robotics, long-duration autonomy, and AI-driven sensor fusion technologies now prioritized in Trump’s Executive Orders on domestic energy dominance, which already task agencies like DOE, DARPA, and NSF with advancing advanced manufacturing and next-gen energy. The seafloor minerals sector presents an ideal testbed to apply those mandates, driving innovation while securing access to four of the most strategically important metals for both defense and clean tech. As the administration reforms permitting timelines, retools the Department of Energy’s innovation programs, and expands national security-driven procurement, now is the moment to integrate seafloor minerals into America’s critical mineral toolkit.

Despite the opportunities for seafloor minerals to bolster American environmental impacts through advancing clean energy, a wave of critique has arisen, largely arguing that using seafloor minerals will have negative environmental impacts. Claims that seafloor nodule collection could impede the ocean’s ability to store carbon dioxide continue to circulate, despite little evidence. Not to mention, experts say that this alarmism neglects the counterfactual that the amount of carbon dioxide released by seafloor mineral collection is “negligibly tiny” when compared with emissions of on-land mining activities.

Letting geopolitical rivals lead on nodule development or critical minerals more broadly is a strategic mistake both for U.S. supply chain and environmental policy. The short window of opportunity, particularly for the Trump administration, to shape the critical mineral industry for the better is a make-or-break moment in gaining the technological edge for the coming decades of American industry. The U.S. should take swift, targeted action by forging strategic alliances with allies like Japan and Australia to coordinate exploration, recognizing nodules as “domestic content” when first landed in the U.S., unlocking manufacturing incentives, and finally by expanding federal R&D and streamlining permitting.

The United States has a rare opportunity to secure not only the security of its supply chains but also the future of its clean energy industry by responsibly advancing seafloor mineral development. With strategic investment, smart regulation, and proactive utilization of the resources available to us, America can shape the rules of the game while securing access to the critical materials that power 21st-century technologies. 

Alina Voss is a fellow with ConservAmerica.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 18:25

"Most Significant Seismicity Since 2009": Quake Swarm Detected At Washington's Mt. Rainier

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the Cascade Volcano Observatory reported Tuesday that an earthquake swarm has been detected beneath Mount Rainier in Washington State. While this marks the most significant seismic activity at the volcano since 2009, the USGS emphasized that there is no immediate cause for concern and the alert level remains at "Green/Normal." 

The quake swarm of hundreds of very small earthquakes was recorded beneath Mount Rainier around 0130 local time on Tuesday. The largest quake so far was magnitude 1.6, occurring at a depth of 1–4 miles (2–6 km) below the summit.

Mount Rainier typically experiences about nine quakes per month, with swarms like this happening 1–2 times per year, though usually with fewer events. However, the USGS stated that this earthquake swarm was "the most significant seismicity at the volcano since 2009." 

The alert level remains GREEN / NORMAL, and monitoring continues via the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network...

"Right now, this swarm is still within what we consider normal background levels of activity at Mount Rainier. Past swarms have been attributed to the circulation of fluids interacting with preexisting faults," USGS said. 

Here's more color on what quake swarms may indicate:

• Movement of magma or fluids: These swarms are often caused by magma rising, or hot fluids circulating underground, putting pressure on surrounding rocks and causing them to crack.
• Stress along faults: Sometimes swarms occur along faults or fractures, where stress builds up and is released in small bursts.
• Volcanic unrest (sometimes): While not always dangerous, swarms can be an early sign of volcanic unrest, especially if accompanied by other changes like ground deformation, gas emissions, or thermal anomalies.

All indications from the USGS suggest that this swarm event is "normal." Certainly something for residents in the Pacific Northwest to keep an eye on.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 18:00

"Vindicated": Man Charged By Biden's DOJ For Posting A Meme Has Conviction Overturned

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

An appeals court has overturned the conviction against Douglas Mackey, who was charged with election interference under the Biden administration for posting a meme in 2016 about voting for then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton via text message.

The Hillary Clinton meme posted by Douglass Mackey (aka Ricky Vaughn)

Mackey had been operating the popular “Ricky Vaughn” Twitter account that had some 58,000 followers. He didn’t dispute that he posted memes, but has maintained that they were clearly satire. The U.S. government, for its part claimed that Mackey conspired with others to deprive individuals of their constitutional right to vote.

Vindicated pic.twitter.com/bnvYWK3Y4p

— Douglass Mackey (@DougMackeyCase) July 9, 2025

The charges appeared constitutionally dubious at first glance, but that’s not why the U.S. Second Circuit Appeals Court overturned the conviction on Wednesday. Rather, the conviction didn’t stand because the Justice Department never proved that Mackey was part of a larger conspiracy, the Second Circuit ruled.

“The mere fact that Mackey posted the memes, even assuming that he did so with the intent to injure other citizens in the exercise of their right to vote, is not enough, standing alone, to prove a violation of Section 241. The government was obligated to show that Mackey knowingly entered into an agreement with other people to pursue that objective. This the government failed to do,” the appeals court ruled.

One of the government’s testifying witnesses was an FBI informant who still actively operates anonymous right-wing Twitter accounts. According to prosecutors, the informant operates accounts similar to the Ricky Vaughn account. They claimed that the two worked in tandem to spread “misinformation.”

The informant pled guilty to the same charge that Mackey was convicted for. His identity has been suppressed because he is allegedly still working with the FBI in respect to other Twitter users.

In any event, the Second Circuit ruled that Mackey and Microchip never actually conspired with each other.

“While Microchip testified at length regarding the conspiracy’s formation and operation, moreover, his testimony was of little probative value with respect to Mackey’s role. Microchip had never met Mackey—nor, so far as the record discloses, had any other member of the War Room or the other message groups,” the appeals court ruled.

“Microchip’s relationship with Mackey, such as it was, was exclusively online. As a result, only online interactions could prove that Mackey participated with Microchip in planning the conspiracy. And the record contains no evidence of such interactions.”

Mackey said Wednesday that he’s planning to sue the DOJ over what prosecutors put him through.

Now we sue

— Douglass Mackey (@DougMackeyCase) July 9, 2025

Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 16:20

Stellar 10Y Auction Stops Through Amid Surge In Direct Bidders

After yesterday's ugly, tailing 3Y auction, which saw record Directs as foreign buyers tumbled, moments ago the Treasury sold $39BN in 10Y notes in a closely watched auction. In the end, the auction went through without a glitch, with solid buyside demand which was foreshadowed by today's sharp bid across the curve.

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.362%, down from 4.421% last month and in a narrow range since February's outlier 4.623%. The auction also stopped through the 4.365% When Issued by 0.3bps, this was the 5th consecutive tail in a row, although the smallest of the bunch.

The bid to cover was 2.61, up from 2.52 in June and the highest since April; it was also above the six-auction average of 2.56

The internals were less impressive, with Indirects awarded 65.4%, down from 70.6% last month, and the lowest since January. And while they were far from a record, Directs rose to 23.7% (after plunging to just 1.4% during the April market mayhem), the highest going back all the way to March 2014.

That left Dealers with just 10.9%, up from 9.0% in June but one of the lowest on record.

Overall, this was a very solid auction, one that left yesterday's poor, tailing 3Y in the dust, and not a moment too soon: with long-end yields blowing out across the world the the 30Y about to break the 5% redline, buyers had to step in or the equity selloff would have come back with a vengeance. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 15:25

Amazon Prime Day Sales Plummet On First Day 

New data from Momentum Commerce shows that Amazon's decision to extend Prime Day from two to four days backfired—Day 1 sales plummeted, marking a grim start. Shoppers are filling their carts but holding off on purchases, hoping for deeper discounts. Meanwhile, spending trends are soft, reinforcing the cautious consumer outlook echoed by several research desks we track.

Bloomberg first cited new data from Momentum Commerce on Wednesday afternoon, which tracks 50 brands across various product categories and price points. The data showed that sales on the e-commerce platform plunged 41% on Tuesday compared to the first day of Prime Day 2024. The sluggish start raises concerns about Amazon's decision to extend the mega discount event.

Momentum CEO John Shea commented on Amazon's big gamble, noting that the extended sale has given consumers more opportunity to browse and "treasure hunt." He added that a shorter Prime Day typically drives higher sales due to a greater sense of urgency. 

Data from research firm Numerator reveals that the average household is spending less on Prime Day this year—$106 compared to $110 at the start of last year's event. The average item price is also down, at $25.46, compared to $28 a year ago.

Prime Day tends to be a high-frequency snapshot of midsummer consumer sentiment, and it may signal deeper caution for the economy. Momentum Commerce data for the first four hours of Prime Day also showed weak consumption trends.

• Amazon Prime Day Kicks Off With Disappointing Early Sales

Despite the gloom, research firm Adobe estimates shoppers across all retailers on Tuesday spent 9.9% more than on the same day one year ago. Prime Day also overlaps with sales from Walmart and Target. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 15:20

Surviving Crew Members Kidnapped By Houthis After Greek-Owned Cargo Ship Attacked

Update(1505ET): Things have gone from bad to worse regarding the situation of the Greek-owned cargo ship Eternity C, which was sunk in a deadly Houthi raid. The missing mariners aboard the ship are now confirmed kidnapped, after at least four were killed.

The US embassy accused Yemen's Iran-backed militants Wednesday of kidnapping crew members from the Eternity C in the Red Sea earlier this week - an attack which was carefully documented and filmed for the world to see by the attackers (see below).

"After killing their shipmates, sinking their ship and hampering rescue efforts, the Huthi terrorists have kidnapped many surviving crew members of the Eternity C. We call for their immediate and unconditional safe release," the embassy said in a statement on X.

Below is more from the Houthi statement, claiming the captive and surviving crew members are 'safe'... will President Trump get involved? It appears at least 15 have been taken.

The Houthis claim responsibility for the attack against the Eternity C. They appear to have taken some crew members to a "safe place" (hostages?) pic.twitter.com/FYlSg5nfTm

— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) July 9, 2025

* * *

Update (1252ET): One of the two commercial ships attacked by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels—the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned cargo ship Eternity C—has sunk, resulting in the deaths of at least four crew members, with 15 still missing. The other ship, Magic Seas, was also attacked and sank earlier this week (crew rescued). 

Here's more from Reuters:

Rescuers pulled six crew members alive from the Red Sea on Wednesday and 15 were still missing from the second of two ships sunk in recent days in attacks claimed by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militia after months of calm.

Four of the 25 people aboard the Eternity C cargo ship were killed before the rest of the crew abandoned the vessel, which sank on Wednesday morning after being attacked on Monday and Tuesday, sources at security companies involved in a rescue operation said.

Since late 2023, more than 100 ships in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb/Southern Red Sea corridor have been targeted by Houthi rebels using drones and missiles.

These attacks are expected to continue until a ceasefire is reached in the Israel-Hamas war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been in Washington, D.C., meeting with President Trump to discuss a potential ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

The deal would allow Netanyahu to secure the release of 50 Israeli hostages. The attacks on Eternity C and Magic Seas mark the first Houthi strikes in the critical maritime chokepoint since President Trump announced a truce with the rebels in May.

*     *     *

 

Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the strategic Bab el-Mandeb/Southern Red Sea corridor have intensified following U.S. airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, ordered by President Trump. This marks a significant escalation of asymmetric Iranian-proxy operations aimed at choking the critical maritime chokepoint. 

Last weekend, rebel forces attacked the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned cargo ship Eternity C, resulting in the deaths of at least three mariners and injuries to several others. The ship lost propulsion and is now adrift with the crew still on board.

Between Sunday and Monday, the Houthis launched another assault on the bulk carrier Magic Seas using small boats and bomb-laden drones.

Rebels later released video footage showing their fighters boarding the vessel, strategically placing explosives throughout the ship. The detonation ultimately led to the vessel's sinking, marking one of the most brazen and well-documented Houthi maritime attacks to date. 

pic.twitter.com/pRWMiOqnUq

— الإعلام الحربي اليمني (@MMY1444) July 8, 2025

The maritime attacks in the Southern Red Sea resulted in the "tragic loss of three mariners, with many others injured and the complete loss of the MV Magic Seas and its cargo," U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement, adding the Trump administration "will continue to take necessary action to protect freedom of navigation and commercial shipping." 

The release of high-impact footage on social media—such as shipboard assaults and vessel sinkings—indicates the Houthis are showcasing their operational capabilities across the Red Sea chokepoint. This video serves a dual purpose: reinforcing their psychological warfare campaign and delivering a clear propaganda message aimed at Western governments and global shipping interests.

Regional Maritime Chokepoints 

Further Houthi maritime activity is likely this week, particularly targeting Western-aligned vessels. We anticipate potential vessel diversions while also tracking ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 15:05

Waste Of The Day: Puerto Rico, Guam, Others In Debt

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearWire,

Topline: The five inhabited U.S. territories are collectively $57.8 billion in debt and have issues with their financial statements that “can lead to poor financial decisions and lost access to capital markets,” according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office.

Key facts: The GAO suggested that the territories may struggle to repay their debt even more than the 50 U.S. states. The territories have high energy and import costs, extreme weather, economies that rely on just a few industries, and had a population decrease from 2010 to 2020.

Puerto Rico holds the most debt by far with $52.8 billion as of 2022, which is 47% of its gross domestic product. Guam ($2.5 billion of debt as of 2023), the Virgin Islands ($2.2 billion as of 2021), the Northern Mariana Islands ($121 million as of 2021) and American Samoa ($145 million as of 2023) are also struggling to balance their budgets.

If some of those statistics seem outdated, it’s because they are. The territories are supposed to release financial statements nine months after each fiscal year ends, but American Samoa is the only one meeting that deadline.

While Guam includes 2023 figures, it issued them seven months late.

The delays could hurt the territories’ credit rating, making future borrowing more expensive, according to the GAO. The territories also can’t be audited if they don’t have financial statements, which the GAO says will make it more difficult to identify potential fraud.

American Samoa is also the only territory properly managing its federal funds. The other four territories all had “questioned costs” in the most recent audits of their financial statements, which could mean “there was a violation or possible violation of a statute, regulation, or the terms and conditions of a federal award.” 

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Background: The five U.S. territories are just one piece of the gigantic debt burden across America. The 50 states were collectively $811 billion in debt at the end of 2023, and the 75 largest cities were $300.7 billion in debt, according to estimates from the think tank Truth in Accounting. The federal debt is over $36.2 trillion.

Summary: Apparently, public officials’ penchant for spending more money than is available is not limited to the contiguous United States.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 15:00

Trump Says BRICS Members Will Get Additional 10% Tariffs Over De-Dollarization Attempt

Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on Tuesday reiterated a previous warning to BRICS nations that he would be imposing an additional 10 percent tariff on them, saying the bloc was created to replace the U.S. dollar as the dominant currency for international trade.

Speaking to journalists during a meeting with Cabinet officials at the White House, Trump said: “If they’re a member of BRICS, they’re going to have to pay 10 percent tariff just for that one thing. And they won’t be a member long.”

The president said that while he doesn’t see the bloc as “a serious threat,” it was set up to “destroy the dollar so that another country can take over and be the standard.”

“And we’re not going to lose the standard,” he said.

The comments came after some in the 11-member group denied comments by the U.S. president that the bloc supports “anti-American” policies.

BRICS, which was set up in 2009, initially included Brazil, Russia, India, and China before absorbing South Africa the next year and further expanding in 2024 to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The group also involves partner countries Bolivia, Nigeria, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Uganda.

According to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who hosted the bloc’s 17th annual leaders summit this week, BRICS nations now represent more than half the world’s population and 40 percent of its economic output.

BRICS leaders have said they want payment alternatives to reduce dependency on U.S. dollars and the SWIFT system—a cross-border payment messaging mechanism that has been used to enforce U.S. and EU sanctions against Russian and Iranian entities.

In November 2024, Trump said he would hit BRICS members with 100 percent tariffs if they attempted to create an alternative trading currency to the U.S. dollar, a warning he repeated in January.

Writing on social media platform Truth Social on Monday, the U.S. president said, “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff.”

The BRICS leaders’ Sunday statement condemned military actions on Gaza and Iran by Israel, a U.S. ally, and called for reforms to global institutions, saying that the rise in “unilateral tariff and non-tariff measures” threatened global trade.

Reacting to Trump’s tariff warning on Monday, Lula said, “We don’t want an emperor.”

The Brazilian president said BRICS wants “another way of organizing the world from the economic perspective.”

He reiterated his call for trade relations that “don’t have to pass through the dollar.”

South African trade ministry spokesman Kaamil Alli said the country is “not anti-American” and still wants to negotiate a trade deal with the United States.

He said South Africa has had “constructive and fruitful” trade talks with the United States and is waiting to continue those talks.

India did not immediately provide an official response to Trump.

Malaysia, which was attending as a partner country and was slapped with 24 percent tariffs that were later suspended, said that it maintains independent economic policies and is not focused on ideological alignment.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said BRICS members “share common approaches and a common world view on how to cooperate based on their own interest.”

He said the group’s cooperation “has never been and will never be directed against any third countries.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning denied that BRICS is “against any country.” He said the group is against the use of tariffs “as a tool for coercion and pressure.”

China Affairs commentator Wang He told The Epoch Times that it’s “very unfair” to the United States and others that China, the world’s second-largest economy, is still treated as a developing country.

Wang said that the U.S. trade deficit last year, which was around $1 trillion, is unsustainable for any country.

“The United States has its reasons [to impose tariffs], but it would clash with the interests of some other countries, in particular, BRICS members,” he said.

While the BRICS statement did not mention the United States, “the theme was not beneficial, but rather unfriendly to the United States,” Wang said.

Sun Kuo-hsiang, professor of international affairs and business at Nanhua University in Taiwan, said additional tariffs for BRICS members could increase global trade tensions and supply chain costs, and trigger complaints to the World Trade Organization.

However, some BRICS members, such as Brazil, India, and South Africa, have mostly taken a “pragmatic and cautious” approach instead of aligning with Washington, Beijing, or Moscow, he said.

New members, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates “joined BRICS based on considerations of economic interests and multilateralism, and will maintain room to cooperate with the United States instead of taking sides,” he added.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 14:20

FOMC Minutes Show 'Divided' Fed Fears Stagflation, Clueless On Actual Tariff Impact

Since the last FOMC meeting (June 18th), which saw a hawkish tilt to the dots (with Fed members notably divided - nearly as many participants anticipated no rate cuts this year as expected two), we have seen stronger-than-expected jobs data, constant diatribes from the president that 'too late' Powell should be cutting rates, and some tariff developments that supported Powell's pause.

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks have melted up since the FOMC meeting (even as macro has weakened - bad news is good news)...

Source: Bloomberg

...while crude was clubbed like a baby seal (Israel-Iran 'peace') as bonds have been very modestly bid against dollar and gold weakness...

Source: Bloomberg.

Rate-cut odds have risen modestly for 2025 since The FOMC meetings (two full cuts priced in, but July off the table) but are well down from pre-payrolls levels...

Source: Bloomberg

And both 'hard' and 'soft' data has weakened relative to expectations since the last FOMC...

Source: Bloomberg

So, what does The Fed want us to know they are thinking about?

Fed members are confused about tariff risks:

"In discussing their outlooks for inflation, participants noted that increased tariffs were likely to put upward pressure on prices.

There was considerable uncertainty, however, about the timing, size, and duration of these effects.

Many observed that it might take some time for the effect of higher tariffs to be reflected in the prices of final goods because firms might choose not to raise prices on affected goods and services until they had run down inventories of products imported before the increase in tariffs or because it would take some time for tariffs on intermediate goods to work through the supply chain."

But convinced growth will slow...

• *FED MINUTES: MAJORITY SAW SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH GOING FORWARD

While the market has priced-out cuts in July, the Minutes show: 

"Most participants assessed that some reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate this year would likely be appropriate, noting that upward pressure on inflation from tariffs may be temporary or modest, that medium- and longer-term inflation expectations had remained well anchored, or that some weakening of economic activity and labor market conditions could occur.

• A couple said they would be open to considering a cut as soon as July if data evolved as they expected

• Some saw the most likely appropriate path would involve no rate cuts in 2025. Those participants cited recent elevated inflation readings, elevated business and consumer inflation expectations and ongoing economic resilience.

• Several said current Fed funds rate may not be far above its neutral rate.

• All participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain Fed funds rate at the current target range.

Despite the market pricing out 'uncertainty' about tariffs, The Fed members are cluelessly guessing...

• Participants agreed risks of higher inflation and weaker labor market conditions had diminished but remain elevated.

• Participants observed uncertainty about economic outlook had diminished amid the reduction in announced and expected tarifffs, but overall uncertainty continued to be elevated.

Fed balance sheet size:

"Since balance sheet runoff commenced in June 2022, SOMA securities holdings had fallen almost $2¼ trillion. As a percentage of GDP, the portfolio had declined to close to where it had been at the start of the pandemic. The corresponding drain in Federal Reserve liabilities had largely come out of balances at the Reverse Repo facility, while reserve levels had been relatively little changed over that period. Respondents to the June Desk survey, on average, expected runoff to end in February of next year, a month later compared with the previous survey, with an expected size of the SOMA portfolio of $6.2 trillion, or about 20% of GDP. At that point, the respondents, on average, expected reserves to be at $2.9 trillion and the ON RRP balance to be low."

Read the full Minutes below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 14:05

WTI Slides After Biggest Crude Build Since January

Oil prices are down this morning as signs of a large gain in US crude stockpiles undermined comments by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia about tight market conditions.

In the US, API reported overnight that crude inventories rose 7.1 million barrels last week. That would be the largest increase since January if confirmed by government data due later on Wednesday.

The expected inventory gain threw some cold water on UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei’s comments that a lack of major inventory buildups shows the market needs the production that OPEC+ is reviving, while Saudi Aramco sees healthy global demand despite trade challenges and tariffs.

API

• Crude +7.1mm

• Cushing +100k

• Gasoline -2.2mm

• Distillates -800k

DOE

• Crude +7.07mm - biggest build since Jan

• Cushing +464k

• Gasoline -2.66mm

• Distillates -825k

The official data confirmed API's big crude build while products saw inventories drawdown...

Source: Bloomberg

With the 238k addition to SPR, total crude stocks rose by the most since January last week...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production remains just off record highs, even as the US rig count plunges...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude is well off the highs of the day now...

Source: Bloomberg

“Current market conditions are reasonably tight,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S.

“But I’m still somewhat concerned a surplus will grow into the autumn months as demand slows.”

In another headwind, Israel foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar says a ceasefire in the nearly two-year conflict in Gaza, as well as a hostage deal, is “achievable,” according to the AFP.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 10:37

Futures Rise With Trump Tariff Updates, FOMC Minutes On Deck

US equity futures inch higher as the market tries to regain some losses a day after President Donald Trump escalated his trade rhetoric and threatened more charges on copper and pharmaceuticals. Trump also foreshadowed an update to the trade status, saying he "will be releasing a minimum of 7 Countries having to do with trade" on Wednesday morning and with an additional number of countries to be released in the afternoon as we reach the 90-day deadline to Liberation Day. As of 8:00am, S&P and Nasdaq futures are 0.2% higher, with Mag7 names trading higher premarket while semis are mixed; banks and industrials are boosting cyclicals. Europe is also trending higher (+80bps) for a third day, while Asia finished mostly lower (HSI -1%, with HS Tech -1.7%).  Goldman writes that heavy focus on recent momentum unwind (the Goldman High Beta Momentum Pair Basket -4.5% yesterday and now down 8.3% mtd). Recent catalysts for the Momo Reversal seem to be: the move in back-end Rates / positioning / ongoing re-shuffling to start the quarter / and the big reversal lower in Banks yesterday.  Elsewhere, some minor underperformance in haven assets suggests investors are not too concerned by what Trump may reveal later today. Spot gold loses $10 or so. Treasuries are steady with bond yields flat to up 1bp as the USD is indicated higher. Commodities are also higher in both Ags/Energy as metals are generally weaker post-copper tariff announcement. Trump's 50% copper tariffs would be “extremely inflationary,” according to UBS O’Connor Global Multi-Strategy Alpha CIO Bernie Ahkong, while Goldman Sachs expects inbound-US flows of the metal to accelerate as the incentive to “front-run” the tariff implementation has increased. Today’s macro data focus is on Fed Minutes, mtge applications, and inventories.

In premarket trading, Microsoft gains 0.8% after Oppenheimer raised the recommendation on the software company to outperform, citing potential upside as AI revenue grows quickly and “investors embrace Microsoft as one of the long-term AI winners in software.” Other Mag7 names are all higher (Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta +0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet +0.3%, Apple unch).

• Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) drops 20% after the maker of semiconductor equipment posted fiscal 4Q revenue that slipped from the year-ago period.
• AES Corp. (AES) is exploring options including a potential sale amid takeover interest, according to people familiar. Shares are up 14%.
• Bloom Energy (BE) gains 7% as JPMorgan upgraded its rating to overweight after fuel cells unexpectedly qualified for Clean Electricity Investment credits as part of the new tax bill.
• Doximity Inc. (DOCS) rises 3% after Evercore ISI upgraded the healthcare-software company to outperform, saying the fiscal 2026 guidance is conservative.
• Mobileye Global (MBLY) slips 1.2% after the maker of software and hardware technology for automobiles announced a secondary offering by Intel. It also reported preliminary second-quarter results that beat expectations. Intel shares are down 0.9% premarket.
• RxSight (RXST) tumbles 40% after the company cut its 2025 revenue forecast and reported preliminary second-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
• Starbucks Corp. has received proposals from prospective investors in its China business, most of whom are eyeing a controlling stake in the operation, said people familiar with the matter. Shares are up 1.7%.
• Tandem Diabetes (TNDM) declines 4% after Citi downgraded the medical device maker to sell from neutral, citing a series of headwinds including competition pressures.
• T-Mobile (TMUS) drops 1.9% as KeyBanc Capital Markets cuts to underweight, saying the telecom company’s stock underperformance is set to continue and that its “premium valuation is just too high.”

In corporate news, there was another round of street actions moving stocks early (MSFT upgraded @ Oppenheimer / SMCI downgraded @ BofA / TMUS downgraded @ Keybanc). Elsewhere, Apple’s COO and company veteran Jeff Williams is stepping down this month before retiring later in the year. The firm is also said to be in talks to acquire the US rights to screen Formula 1 after the success of its hit movie, according to the FT. META is investing $3.5bn in a AI Glasses company;  BABA is trading -2.5% after JD.com announced a new food delivery company;  bloomberg is reporting that China wants to use 115,000 banned NVDA chips to fulfill its AI Ambitions; and SpaceX is said to be planning an offering valuing the company at $400bn (only 19 publicly traded companies in the S&P have a large mkt cap).  Intel is selling 45 million shares of Mobileye, in a move seen likely to support Intel’s near-term liquidity and cash needs as it funds foundry ambitions, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. 

Investors will seek clues for more insight on Fed’s policy path when the latest FOMC meeting minutes are released later today, amid increasing pressure on Powell from Trump. Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are vying to be the next Fed chair, according to the WSJ. 

Earlier this week, traders had largely brushed off a batch of letters in which Trump effectively delayed his tariff deadline while outlining new rates targeting over a dozen countries. Sentiment shifted on Tuesday, when he signaled fresh resolve to move forward with steep levies on foreign imports.  He also signaled that updates to the trade status of at least seven nations would be released Wednesday morning, with more announcements later in the day.

“The market has already overreacted in the past on Trump’s trade announcements, so I think investors are being prudent and cautious,” said Stéphane Deo, senior portfolio manager at Eleva Capital in Paris. “That being said, tariffs will end up being much higher in the fall than they were at the beginning of the year, so that’s likely to fuel inflation.”

Investors will also parse minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting later today for indications on whether officials are closer to lowering interest rates. Trump accused Fed Chair Jerome Powell of “whining like a baby about non-existent inflation” as he intensified his standoff over the pause in rate cuts. Swaps are almost fully pricing two quarter-point cuts until the end of the year, with a 65% chance of a first reduction in September.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is up 0.8% and set to rise for the third consecutive session, to the highest in almost a month, as investors look for signs of progress in trade negotiations with the US. Bank and energy names are leading gains while media shares provide a drag. Miners underperform after President Donald Trump indicated the US would implement a higher-than-expected 50% tariff on copper imports.  Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• EssilorLuxottica shares rise as much as 5.5%, the most in three months, after Facebook parent Meta acquired just under 3% of the Ray-Ban maker, according to people familiar with the matter
• British American Tobacco shares rise as much as 2.9%, the most in over a month, after Jefferies named the firm as its top pick as it reinstated coverage of the global tobacco sector
• Renk shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most since June, after Bloomberg reported the German gearbox maker is considering options for its civilian industrial business as it looks to focus on defense operations
• Indra Sistemas rises as much as 4% in Madrid as Goldman Sachs raises its recommendation to buy from neutral, noting the firm is a beneficiary of the “defense mega trend”
• Hunting shares rise as much as 15%, the most since May 2024, after the British engineering group announced an increase in targeted dividend distributions in its H1 trade results and proposed a $40m share buyback
• Santam shares rise as much as 4.3% in Johannesburg, to a record high, after JPMorgan increased its price target on the short-term insurer to a new Street high of 527.71 rand from 480 rand
• WPP shares drop as much as 16%, to the lowest since 2009, after the advertising agency reduced its organic growth guidance for the year, citing continued macro uncertainty that weighed on client spending
• Kongsberg falls as much as 7.6% as DNB Carnegie says soft second quarter results could bring down consensus estimates, even as company cites “substantial” demand for its defense systems
• FDJ United shares tumble as much as 5.2%, falling for a fifth consecutive session to their lowest level since April, after a unit of Credit Agricole sold its entire stake in the lottery and sports-betting firm at a discount
• Inwido falls as much as 6.2%, the most since April, after DNB Carnegie cut its recommendation on the Swedish window and door manufacturer to hold, saying the shares are fairly valued after a good run
• Close Brothers tumbles as much as 9.1%, pulling back after reaching an eight-month high, as the firm warned a revamp of its premium finance business will cause the unit’s loan book to decline
• Zigup shares fall as much as 8.2% after the UK-based rental firm reported lower profits on vehicle disposals in preliminary FY25 earnings. Panmure Liberum says this risks eroding the group’s profits in the future

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as investor mood soured following US President Donald Trump’s latest vow to push forward with his aggressive tariff agenda. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 0.4%, with Alibaba, Tencent and Samsung Electronics among the biggest drags. Equities in Hong Kong were among the top losers in the region, partly weighed by declines in metals stocks. Copper names including Zijin Mining fell after Trump said he planned to implement a 50% tariff on imports of the commodity. Shares in Australia and New Zealand also fell after Trump’s tariff announcements from the White House. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to leave interest rates unchanged, as expected. Malaysia’s stock benchmark index was down about 0.4% as the central bank cut its interest rate for the first time since 2020 amid trade tensions.

In FX, the dollar swung between gains and losses and stayed in tight ranges versus its major peers, while options pointed to demand for bullish exposure. The Canadian dollar underperforms slightly with a 0.2% fall.

• USD/JPY -0.1% to 146.73 (range 146.53 - 147.18)
• EUR/USD little changed at 1.1721 (range 1.1702 - 1.1729)
• GBP/USD little changed at 1.3599 (range 1.3565 - 1.3606)

In rates, treasuries drop, with US 10-year yields rising 2bps to 4.42% following a five-day run of losses which lifted the rate almost 20 basis points. The Treasury will sell $39 billion of 10-year notes later Wednesday followed by $22 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday. An offering of three-year securities on Tuesday was met with soft demand. Bunds edge higher with German 10-year borrowing costs down 1 bp at 2.68%. The Gilt curve flattens as short-end maturities underperform and lag gains at the longer-end.

“This week’s Treasury auctions are going to be important, at least in the short term, particularly where we are in terms of the tax cut extensions and the tariff negotiations,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James’s Place in London.

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI up 0.5% at $68.70 a barrel; spot gold falls $12 to around $3,290/oz. Bitcoin trades in a narrow range as we await further tariffs updates later in the session. At best, still just under 1k from the in-focus USD 110k mark.

Looking at today's calendar, the US economic data slate includes May wholesale inventories (10am) and minutes of the June FOMC meeting (2pm). Fed speaker slate is blank

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
• DAX +1%
• CAC 40 +1.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.39%
• VIX -0.5 points at 16.33
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1196.96
• euro -0.1% at $1.1712
• WTI crude +0.5% at $68.67/barrel

Top Overnight news

• President Donald Trump vowed to push forward with his aggressive tariff regime in the coming days, stressing he would not offer additional extensions on country-specific levies set to now hit in early August while indicating he could announce substantial new rates on imports of copper and pharmaceuticals.
• White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett has emerged as a contender for the next Fed Chair in a possible threat to early favourite Kevin Warsh and has met with President Trump at least twice in June regarding the job, according to WSJ.
• US Speaker Johnson, when asked on government funding state of play, said “We want to appropriate at lower levels. We just have to determine what those levels are exactly", via Punchbowl.
• Copper futures fell in London after President Donald Trump sowed chaos in metals markets by indicating the US would implement a higher-than-expected 50% tariff on imports of the commodity.
• Meta Platforms Inc. bought a minority stake in the world’s largest eyewear manufacturer, EssilorLuxottica SA, deepening the US tech giant’s commitment to the fast-growing smart glasses industry, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Active investment managers have no option but to adopt hedge fund strategies to counter the migration to low-cost passively run portfolios, according to an outperforming French asset manager.
• DoJ said to be investing UnitedHealth's (UNH) Medicare billing, according to WSJ sources.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs as Treasury Secretary Bessent wanted more time on deals, according to WSJ.
• US President Trump posted they "will be releasing a minimum of 7 Countries having to do with trade" on Wednesday morning and with an additional number of countries to be released in the afternoon.
• EU negotiators are closing in on a trade deal with US President Trump that would leave the EU facing higher tariffs than the UK, with the EU not expecting to achieve the same access to the US market as British steel, cars and other products subject to sectoral duties. Furthermore, Brussels is ready to sign a temporary “framework” agreement that sets Trump's “reciprocal” tariff at 10% while talks continue, according to FT.
• China's Commerce Ministry placed eight Taiwanese companies on its export control list due to concerns regarding dual-use technologies.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where tariff updates remained in focus after the US flagged more tariff letters and President Trump suggested a 50% tariff on copper. ASX 200 marginally retreated with most sectors in the red although price action was confined within tight parameters. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses amid global trade uncertainty, while there were balanced comments from BoJ's Koeda who stated it is inappropriate to say the specific timing of the next rate hike now due to high uncertainty but added the BoJ must debate how much it should eventually shrink its expanded balance sheet and balance of JGB holdings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the mixed overall picture in the region as property names dragged the Hong Kong benchmark lower, while the mainland remained afloat as participants reflected on mixed inflation data from China.

Top Asian News

• China's state planner chair said to expect the size of China's economy to exceed CNY 140tln this year and noted that foreign tech curbs can only strengthen China's tech innovation and resolve on self-reliance.
• BoJ's Koeda said recent rises in Japan's food and rice prices were stronger than expected at the time of BoJ's May policy meeting and they are watching the development carefully, while he added the BoJ's weighted median inflation is still below 2% and must scrutinise whether momentum for stable inflation is becoming embedded in Japan's economy. Koeda also commented that it is inappropriate to say the specific timing of the next rate hike now due to high uncertainty over the economic outlook and stated the BoJ must debate how much it should eventually shrink its expanded balance sheet and balance of JGB holdings.
• ex-BoJ policymaker Sakurai says BoJ will hold off rate hikes until March due to the US tariffs, according to Reuters.
• RBNZ kept the OCR at 3.25%, as expected, while it stated that if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected, the Committee expects to lower the OCR further and annual consumer price inflation will likely increase towards the top of the Monetary Policy Committee's 1-3% target band over mid-2025. RBNZ stated the economic outlook remains highly uncertain and further data on the speed of New Zealand's economic recovery, the persistence of inflation, and the impacts of tariffs will influence the future path of the OCR. The minutes from the meeting stated the Committee expects to lower the official cash rate further, broadly consistent with the projection outlined in May and the case for keeping the OCR on hold at this meeting highlighted the elevated level of uncertainty and the benefits of waiting until August in light of near-term inflation risks. Furthermore, the Committee discussed the options of cutting the OCR by 25bps or keeping the OCR on hold at this meeting and some members emphasised that further monetary easing in July would provide a guardrail to ensure the recovery of economic activity.
• China State Council issues notice on stepping up support for employment, via Xinhua; will support enterprises in stabilising jobs; will expand the scope of social insurance subsidies. To further enrich the policy toolkit in order to stabilise employment.

European bourses began the day with modest gains and have been grinding higher throughout the morning, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.1%; strength comes with the EU said to be nearing a deal with the US, with modest outperformance in the DAX 40 +1.2% amid associated auto strength. Amidst this, sectors began mixed but have been moving toward an overall positive bias. Banks lead with UniCredit (+3%) raising its stake in Commerzbank (+1%). Basic Resources weaker given pressure in non-US copper, hitting London-based minders, while Media lags after WPP's (-17%) profit warning.

Top European News

• BoE Financial Stability Report - July 2025; maintains CCyB at 2%. Uncertainty around the global risk outlook remains materially elevated compared to the time of the November FSR. Bank plans to engage with industry through an upcoming discussion paper, which will seek views on potential options to help mitigate gilt repo market vulnerabilities.
• BoE's Bailey (at the FSR) says risks and uncertainty still elevated. UK borrowers are resilient and can be supported by banks. Steepening in yield curves is not particularly UK-focused. Steepening in yield curves will need to be looked at carefully when it comes to the QT decision. QT is an open decision.
• Union confirms that UK Junior Doctors will go on strike between July 25-30th.

FX

• USD steady as markets digest Tuesday's trade updates and await another batch later today. DXY contained in a 97.49-72 band. Amidst this, G10 peers are slightly mixed vs the USD but are broadly contained thus far.
• GBP the marginal best performer, Cable to a 1.3608 peak at best but hasn't spent much time above the figure in 1.3565-1.3608 confines. No reaction to the FSR and as trade updates for the UK are expected to be light, the USD-side of the equation will likely do the heavy lifting for today.
• EUR marginally softer vs the USD, EUR/USD holding just above 1.17 in a 1.1702-29 confine, and well within yesterday's 1.1682-1.1765 parameter. Specifics light thus far as we await updates on trade, after Trump said a letter was two days away which means a deal. Ahead, a handful of ECB speakers.
• Antipodeans relatively contained, particularly when compared to the RBA-led outperformance in the AUD earlier in the week. AUD/USD currently holding around highs of 0.6544, but essentially flat. Overnight, the RBNZ was unchanged as expected but guided towards further cuts if data moves as projected, essentially taking a data-dependent approach; as such,Kiwi is flat at 0.6000 vs the USD.
• JPY softer. We continue to await updates on the US-Japanese trade front with rhetoric earlier in the week not indicative of a near-term breakthrough. That aside, the firmer risk tone this morning has potentially been exerting some modest pressure. However, despite the continued improvement in the risk tone, USD/JPY is off overnight highs above 147.00, closer to a 146.54 trough.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1541 vs exp. 7.1806 (Prev. 7.1534).

Fixed Income

• A modest upward bias for benchmarks after a few sessions of relatively marked pressure.
• Strength comes despite the constructive risk tone. But, the magnitude of today's move is limited in nature with Bunds for instance still lower by over 60 ticks WTD, and the move more a function of Bunds retracing some of Tuesday’s supply-induced pressure (primarily from EU debt) than a pronounced move higher.
• No move in EGBs to the day's dual-tranche Bund supply. Now awaiting ECB speak and potential comments from the German Chancellor in a Bundestag Q&A on the draft 2026 budget.
• USTs a similar story with specifics light into supply and FOMC Minutes. Thus far, confined to a 110-24 to 110-29+ band, within Tuesday’s slightly more expansive 110-21+ to 111-01+ parameters, and by extension shy of Monday’s 111-12+ WTD peak.
• Gilts in-fitting with USTs and EGBs. Firmer by a handful of ticks with newsflow light as the UK has already secured a trade deal. Off best, but still firmer, in a 91.63-83 band; as is the case for USTs and Bunds remains shy of peaks at 91.98 and 92.63 from the last two sessions.
• UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.50% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.89x (prev. 2.98x), average yield 4.635% (prev. 4.588%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.3bps)
• Germany sells EUR 1.135bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 and EUR 0.794bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.50% 2044 Bund

Commodities

• Upward bias across the crude contracts with Brent front-month settling north of USD 70/bbl yesterday following the OPEC+ surprise over the weekend, in the form of a larger-than-expected supply increase for August.
• WTI resides in a USD 67.78-68.94/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 69.85-70.71/bbl range.
• Softer trade across precious metals despite a relatively stable Dollar. Weakness in the complex could be a function of optimism regarding trade deals. Spot gold continues yesterday's weakness and resides in a USD 3,282.66-3,308.15/oz range, with the next point the 30th June trough at USD 3,244.42/oz.
• Base metals are softer, in Europe, despite the commentary from Trump on copper tariffs lifting to 50%. Front-running of US copper ahead of the potential 50% tariff has widened the Comex-LME arbitrage to over USD 2,000/t and pushed Comex inventories above combined LME and SHFE levels, writes ING.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +7.1mln (exp. -2.1mln), Distillate -0.8mln (exp. -0.3mln), Gasoline -2.2mln (exp. -1.5mln), Cushing +0.1mln.
• Mexico's Economy Minister said he will have a call with US authorities to discuss copper tariffs and see what they apply to.
• UAE Energy Minister says not worried about oil supply overhang, not seen an increase in inventories. Adds, they are losing some of the world's spare oil capacity Y/Y as some nations cannot produce what they did last year or last month and nobody is talking about peak oil demand anymore, demand has surpassed predictions.
• Goldman Sachs maintains its December 2025 LME Copper price forecast at USD 9.7k. Changes the baseline view on US tariffs on copper imports to 50% (prev. exp. 25%).
• West African cocoa production is likely to see another 10% decline in the upcoming 2025/26 season, according to Reuters citing industry sources.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump exerted strong pressure on Israeli PM Netanyahu during their meeting to end the war, according to Yedioth Ahronoth citing informed sources.
• Qatari delegation arrived on Tuesday for talks at the White House regarding the hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza, according to Axios citing a source familiar.
• IDF presence in Gaza is understood to be the 'only issue' still to be resolved in the push for Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the two sides have bridged significant differences on several other issues, according to Sky News citing sources.
• Kann News citing Saudi royal family sources believes that the agreement being formulated between Israel, Syria and the United States could have a positive effect and prepare the ground for an agreement with the Saudis as well.
• US Envoy Witkoff said to have postponed travel to Doha for Israel-Hamas peace talks, according to Times of Israel.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• White House considers giving Ukraine another Patriot air defence system, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• Ukrainian attack on a beach in the Russian city of Kursk killed three people, according to the regional governor.
• Russia launched a "record" 728 drones overnight and 13 missiles, according to Ukraine's Air Force.
• German Chancellor Merz says diplomatic means to resolve the Ukraine war have been exhausted.
• Russia's Kremlin says "we are calm" about US President Trump's criticism of Russian President Putin. Trump has a tough style in the phrases he uses. Will continue to try to fix the broken Russia-US relationship.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky is due to meet with US Special Envoy Kellogg during his visit to Rome, according to Ifax.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Jul 4 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 2.7%
• 10:00 am: May F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%
• 2:00 pm: Jun 18 FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Equity markets have been treading water over the last 24 hours, even with the latest tariff developments and some renewed jitters in global bond markets around fiscal sustainability. That meant yields rose in pretty much every major economy, with 10yr Treasury yields (+2.0bps) by no means the worst hit but still rising for a 5th consecutive session, before rising another +1.4bps this morning. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (-0.07%) edged back for a second day as Trump said there’ll be no further tariff extensions beyond August 1st, with futures down another -0.12% overnight. And it was also a record day for US copper futures after Trump said copper would face 50% tariffs, with the biggest daily jump (+13.25%) in available data back to the late-1980s. 

In terms of how the day unfolded, that bond selloff initially began in Japan, where there was a big spike in long-end bond yields that pushed the 30yr yield up +9.0bps, and back above 3%. That’s coming ahead of the upper house election there on July 20, where the major parties are advocating further spending or tax cuts, so that’s adding to concerns at a time when the Bank of Japan are already scaling back their bond purchases. And as we just managed to sneak into yesterday’s edition, the Reserve Bank of Australia voted to keep rates on hold, even though a cut was widely expected, so that helped to push yields higher in Australia too. 

That momentum carried over into the European session, where yields moved up across the continent. UK gilts saw the biggest moves, with their 30yr yield (+6.3bps) back up to 5.45%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +4.7bps to 4.63%. So in both cases, that took yields above their close last Wednesday when Chancellor Reeves’ position looked under threat, and investors feared that the government might ease the fiscal rules. Coincidentally, the OBR fiscal watchdog published their “Fiscal risks and sustainability” report yesterday, which concluded that demographic pressures would help push debt-to-GDP above 270% of GDP by the early 2070s, at least on current policy. Admittedly, it’s a similar situation if you look at the CBO’s long-term reports for the US, but it demonstrates how this problem isn’t going away on the current trajectory.

These concerns were clear on both sides of the Atlantic, and 30yr Treasury yields earlier got close to 5% again, closing up +0.9bps at 4.92% after having reached 4.97% in early NY trading. Bear in mind we’ve got a 10yr Treasury auction today and a 30yr auction tomorrow, so those will be in the spotlight to see how much demand there is. Meanwhile in Europe, 10yr bund yields were up +4.4bps to 2.69%, whilst the 30yr yield (+5.4bps) hit 3.17%, which is just shy of its post-Euro crisis peak of 3.21% from late-2023. On the topic of German fiscal policy, DB are hosting a webinar today at 1pm London time on the latest developments and its impact. The details to register can be found here. 

Otherwise, trade and tariffs were the main focus yesterday, and the big development was Trump saying that “No extensions will be granted” to the August 1 deadline on the reciprocal tariffs. That’s a shift in tone from Trump’s own comments on Monday evening, as Trump had said that the August 1 date was “not 100% firm”, and investors had been hopeful that ongoing negotiations and trade deals could avoid that. So it’s a clear hardening up of the rhetoric. During a cabinet meeting yesterday, the President took a hard line against the BRICS countries again, saying the group was “set up to hurt us…I can play that game too so anybody that’s in BRICS is getting a 10%” tariff addition. This comes even though he had previously noted that he was close to a deal with India. In addition, the President took a more hawkish tone, indicating that some countries would be seeing a 60% or 70% tariff rate and that sectoral tariffs are coming. While pharma, autos, and steel have been well flagged, the President proposed a 50% rate on copper products and said that some drug levies could reach as high as 200%, although the President stated that the pharma tariffs would only come after a “year or year and half”. Copper first month futures on the NY exchange hit an all-time high in response, as prices rose 13.25% (17% intraday), which was the largest daily move since on record going back to 1988.

Amidst those headlines, there was some more constructive news as we heard that the Japan-US talks were continuing, and Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that economic revitalisation minister Ryosei Akazawa had a 30 minute phone call with Treasury Secretary Bessent. In the statement, it said that Japan would “continue to explore ways for a mutually beneficial agreement”, and it was later reported by Bloomberg that Bessent would be in Japan next week for the 2025 World Expo. President Trump indicated that at least seven tariff letters would be coming out this morning, Washington time, with more expected as the week goes on. Ultimately, the “reciprocal” tariffs rates have been extended to August 1st given Monday’s executive order, so investors will continue to weigh how likely the administration is to go through with the higher rates over the next three weeks.

That backdrop meant equities struggled, with the S&P 500 (-0.07%) losing further ground after its decline on Monday. However, the decline wasn’t particularly broad-based, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 was actually up +0.25% on the day. At the sub-sector level, Energy outperformed (+2.7%) on the back of higher oil prices (Brent crude up 0.82% yesterday), while Autos (1.2%), Semiconductors (+1.0%) and Pharma (+0.9%) all outperformed despite the specific sectoral tariff threats. There was also a decent divergence between the megacaps in the Magnificent 7 (-0.07%), and the small-caps in the Russell 2000 (+0.66%). Meanwhile in Europe, the mood was generally more positive, with the STOXX 600 (+0.41%) paring back its earlier losses after the news came through about the US-Japan call.

Overnight in Asia, most equity indices have managed to post an advance, with gains for the Nikkei (+0.18%), the KOSPI (+0.65%), the CSI 300 (+0.32%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.29%). Indeed, the Shanghai Comp is currently on track to close at its highest level since early 2022. However, there’s been weakness elsewhere, and the Hang Seng is down -0.74%, whilst Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is down -0.41% after the RBA’s unexpected decision to remain on hold yesterday. Indeed, Australian government bond yields have seen a further jump this morning, with the 10yr yield up another +9.0bps to 4.35%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have also kept rates on hold this morning at 3.25%, although that decision was widely expected.

Otherwise, the latest inflation data from China has been released overnight, which showed producer prices were down -3.6% year-on-year (vs. -3.2% expected). That’s a 33rd consecutive month of declining prices, and the biggest rate of decline in 23 months. However, consumer prices unexpectedly rose +0.1% (vs. -0.1% expected), marking the first inflationary reading since January. 

There wasn’t much data yesterday, although the NFIB’s small business optimism index came out, which was exactly in line with consensus at 98.6. Otherwise, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations saw little change in inflation expectations. The 1yr measure was down to 3.0% in June, the lowest since January, but the 3yr measure was unchanged at 3.0%, and the 5yr was also unchanged at 2.6%.

To the day ahead now, and we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s June meeting, and hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, and Bundesbank President Nagel. The Bank of England will also release their Financial Stability Report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 08:32

Texas AG Issues Warning On Scammers Targeting Flood Victims

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton warned that scammers are targeting people by taking advantage of the flooding disaster in the central part of that state, which has left more than 100 people dead.

Flooding caused by a flash flood at the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, Texas, on July 5, 2025. Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

“There are no words for how wrong it is that morally bankrupt people are trying to take advantage of Texans by using this tragedy to scam them,” he said in a consumer alert issued on Monday evening.

“The Office of the Attorney General would like to caution everyone in any area affected by storms and flooding to be extremely careful with people offering to help you rebuild or reconstruct,” Paxton’s office added.

Elaborating on the nature of the scams, Paxton’s office stated that in some instances, contractors are hired to perform work after a disaster but fail to do so.

“Flood victims are reminded to be wary of contractors from out of the area, don’t rush into signing a contract, ask for references, and check with the Better Business Bureau to ensure they’re working with a trustworthy business,” the consumer alert reads.

Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice, whose city was hard-hit by the flooding late last week, told reporters on Monday that some victims’ families have been contacted by alleged scammers who have issued ransom threats.

They’ve been “saying that they have their kids, pay me money,” he said, referring to children who went missing during the floods. “It’s heartbreaking. It’s absolutely heartbreaking,” he added.

In Kerr County, home to youth camps in the Texas Hill Country, searchers have found the bodies of 84 people, including 28 children, Sheriff Larry Leitha said on Monday afternoon. Fatalities in nearby counties brought the total number of deaths as of Monday afternoon to at least 104.

Ten girls and a counselor were still unaccounted for at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river.

Before the floods, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a flash-flood warning at 1:14 a.m. on July 4 to mobile phones and weather radios, more than three hours before the first reports of flooding at low-water crossings in Kerr County at 4:35 a.m. The warning was updated at 4:03 a.m. to a flash-flood emergency.

The warning included Hunt, the small town that’s home to Camp Mystic. Girls who were rescued from the camp have said they were woken up after midnight by strong storms that knocked out power. Bright flashes from lightning strikes showed the river rising rapidly.

Gov. Greg Abbott said on Sunday that 41 people were confirmed to be unaccounted for across the state, and more could be missing.

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump signed a major disaster declaration for the area, while the administration authorized the Federal Emergency Management Agency to respond.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, has defended the NWS response to the storm after Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said this week that he wants a probe of the agency and how it delivered warnings ahead of the floods.

In a post on social media platform X, White House deputy press secretary Abigail Jackson wrote that federal forecasters did their job before the floods.

But Schumer wrote a letter on Monday to the acting inspector general of the Department of Commerce, which oversees the National Weather Service (NWS), requesting an investigation into whether alleged staffing shortages at the local NWS office were a contributing factor.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 08:05

Vestas Wind Power CEO Urges EU To Sharpen Its "Fragmented" Energy Policy

Henrik Andersen, CEO of Danish wind turbine giant Vestas Wind Systems A/S, has issued a stark warning to European policymakers: without stronger and more cohesive industrial strategies, Europe may lose its edge in renewable energy manufacturing to the U.S. and other regions.

“Wind is largely a European creation — born in our universities, tested on our sites,” Andersen told Bloomberg News. “If we don’t protect and support what we’ve built, companies like ours will eventually move out of Europe. It’s that simple.”

Andersen’s remarks come amid growing concerns over Europe's competitiveness, weak economic growth, and its ability to meet carbon reduction goals. These challenges were spotlighted in a 2023 report by former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. Geopolitical tensions — such as Iran's recent threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, and ongoing instability from the war in Ukraine — have also underscored the urgency of achieving energy independence.

“When you’re self-sufficient, energy prices fall. So if Europe wants any of this, then energy and industrial policy need to be very closely linked,” Andersen emphasized. “We need an industrial policy that allows European companies to be both global and big.”

Bloomberg writes that despite its leadership in wind technology, Europe’s fragmented regulatory landscape, high inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain issues have created headwinds for companies like Vestas. Competition from Chinese turbine manufacturers — including recent deals in Germany — has added to the pressure, although some of these arrangements face scrutiny on national security grounds.

Andersen criticized the EU’s long-standing aversion to industrial consolidation, arguing it has left European companies at a disadvantage globally. “For decades, we’ve said no to mergers and consolidation in the name of competition,” he said. “Now it’s that very fragmentation that’s making Europe uncompetitive.”

He pointed to U.S. policy as a model for Europe, citing the American approach to energy independence and industrial scale. Even with political threats to renewable subsidies, Andersen acknowledged the U.S. has followed through on consistent long-term strategy.

“I’m going to be a little bold and say it: Europe should look at what the US has done,” he said. “Over the past decades, America has built a level of energy independence that now allows them to export energy to Europe. That didn’t happen overnight. It took two or three decades of consistent policy, but it shows that it can be done.”

Vestas, headquartered in Aarhus, Denmark, has installed over 56,000 turbines in 71 countries since its founding in 1979. Recently, the company has significantly expanded in the U.S., doubling its American workforce to over 5,000 in the past three years. Its U.S. factories are currently running at full capacity to meet demand.

“We’re not afraid to invest in the US,” Andersen said. “And we don’t expect any administration — current or future — to de-prioritize energy. In fact, we’re confident they’ll keep pushing forward.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 02:45

BRICS' Condemnation Of The Pahalgam Terrorist Attack Proves That China Politicized The SCO

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The Rio Declaration that followed the latest BRICS Summit in that coastal Brazilian city saw all members, including China, condemn late April’s Pahalgam terrorist attack in paragraph 34:

“We condemn in the strongest terms the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir on 22 April 2025”.

This sharply contrasts with the draft SCO Defense Ministers’ joint statement in late June, which included no condemnation of that attack, hence why India’s Defense Minister refused to sign it.

That scandal was analyzed here at the time.

It was assessed that this was a deliberate provocation by this year’s Chinese chair.

The triple purpose was to do a favor for its Pakistani ally, craft the optics for lending false credence to the perception that India is the “weak link” in the SCO, and thus strengthen the influence of Russia’s pro-BRI policymaking faction. China was able to pull this off due to its chairmanship giving it extra influence over the group’s workings. No joint declaration was agreed to because China refused to amend the text to satisfy India.

China ironically found itself in the same position during the latest BRICS Summit as the one into which it had just placed India, however, except Beijing decided to condemn Pahalgam this time around in order to avoid the optics of a BRICS founder torpedoing this year’s declaration. Brazilian President Lula da Silva just hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a state visit, which was analyzed here to be part of his new balancing act, so he wasn’t going to disrespect him by not including Pahalgam in the declaration.

The aforesaid analysis also argues that it was this state visit and associated state dinner which influenced Xi’s unprecedented decision to decline participating in this year’s summit for the first time ever (implausibly citing scheduling conflicts) since he didn’t want to play second fiddle to Modi there. In light of the declaration condemning Pahalgam, which was predictable in retrospect given Lula’s hosting of Modi on a state visit, Xi couldn’t oppose it without discrediting himself personally and rupturing BRICS.

Another reason behind his unprecedented absence could have therefore been to “save face” after tasking his Prime Minister to agree to the declaration despite its condemnation of Pahalgam for the reasons explained above. Having his Defense Minister refuse to amend the joint statement from the SCO meeting that he just chaired two weeks ago so that it condemns Pahalgam to having his Prime Minister inexplicably agree to condemn Pahalgam in the Rio Declaration is a textbook example of flip-flopping.

Even worse, it tacitly draws attention to how China politicized the SCO during its last meeting as touched upon in the analysis that was cited at the end of the introduction, which goes against the spirit of the group. The favor that it did for Pakistan thus backfired since the optics have now been inadvertently crafted for lending credence to Indian suspicions that China has ulterior motives within the SCO and Russia’s pro-BRI policymaking faction might now be discredited by association.

In hindsight, China should have included a condemnation of Pahalgam in the draft SCO Defense Ministers’ joint statement during the group’s latest meeting that it chaired since it wasn’t realistically going to oppose this predictable inclusion in the then-upcoming BRICS Rio Declaration.

The fact that it didn’t do so suggests that it either clumsily overlooked this or took for granted that it could convince Brazil not to include it.

In any case, China’s reputation just took a hit, and it was entirely avoidable.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/09/2025 - 02:00

Israel Defense Minister Unveils Plan For 'Concentration Camp' In Gaza

With Gaza ceasefire negotiations under way and President Trump raising hopes of a deal being reached by week's end, Defense Minister Israel Katz on Monday revealed that the IDF will create what it calls a "humanitarian city" in the wasteland that is Rafah, and then forcibly concentrate Gaza's entire population of nearly 2 million people inside it. 

Though the Israeli government and its advocates will likely to condemn already-widespread usage of the term "concentration camp" to describe this undertaking -- likely claiming it's somehow antisemitic given the parallels to Nazi Germany -- it's unambiguously applicable under the Merriam-Webster definition of the term: 

concentration camp (noun) a place where large numbers of people (such as prisoners of war, political prisoners, refugees, or the members of an ethnic or religious minority) are detained or confined under armed guard  

In the first phase, the IDF plans to round up 600,000 displaced Palestinians who are living in the coastal Mawasi area and move them to Rafah, a city in southernmost Gaza that borders Egypt and Israel. Eventually, every Gaza resident will be moved. After security screening, Palestinians will be ushered inside the camp, with IDF guards ensuring that none are able to leave, Katz said. 

Like the rest of Gaza, Rafah has been devastated with US-supplied weapons used by the IDF (AFP)

While the Israeli military will secure the perimeter, the Netanyahu government is looking for some type of international organization(s) to take charge of the interior, to include overseeing the distribution of aid, an enterprise currently managed by the shadowy Gaza Humanitarian Foundation with the IDF dishing out mass killings of Palestinians approaching the aid points; more than 600 are reported dead around the aid stations since late May. Whistleblowing soldiers have told reporters that lethal weapons are being used against unarmed people as brute-force crowd control.   

Katz's announcement contradicts what the IDF Chief of Staff's office told Israel's High Court on the very same day. In response to a petition filed by IDF reserve soldiers asking the court to determine if Israel was violating international law by forcibly displacing Palestinians with perhaps the ultimate goal of expelling them, the Chief of Staff's office said there was no plan to move masses of Gaza residents or to concentrate them somewhere in the territory. However, that assurance is itself seemingly contradicted by the operations order for "Gideon's Chariots," the IDF's latest operation launched in May, which says one objective is "managing and mobilizing the civilian population," Haaretz reports. 

On Monday, Katz also reiterated Israel's intention to subsequently facilitate Palestinians' departures to other countries, telling reporters that Israel will implement "the emigration plan, which will happen." Separately, however, an official told Haaretz that Israel's overtures to various countries have all been refused. While Israel's champions commonly claim such refusals prove that Palestinians are dangerously undesirable people, Middle East governments are intensely wary of being perceived by their own populations as facilitating ethnic cleansing by Israel, for fear of domestic backlash up to and including insurrections.

RAFAH, GAZA BEFORE & AFTER.

-TRT World pic.twitter.com/EusxcxEHdP

— International Defence Analysis (@Defence_IDA) July 3, 2025

For somewhat similar reasons, Israel is likely to struggle to find what Katz called "international partners" to run the interior of the Rafah concentration camp. Human-rights-oriented groups and foreign governments will recoil at an invitation to serve as a key component of a scheme that most objective observers would characterize as a war crime. Given that, we could see the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation fill the void, which would only compound the controversy.  

Meeting with President Trump at the White House on Monday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struck an optimistic tone about the prospect of mass Palestinian emigration, and characterized the idea as voluntary in nature: 

"If people want to stay, they can stay, but if they want to leave, they should be able to leave. We're working with the United States very closely about finding countries that will seek to realize what they always say, that they wanted to give the Palestinians a better future. I think we're getting close to finding several countries."

Trump echoed Netanyahu's optimism, saying, "We've had great cooperation from ... surrounding countries, great cooperation from every single one of them. So something good will happen." 

"Citizens will be concentrated in the south...understanding there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza," Bezalel Smotrich said in May (Amir Levy - Getty via NYTimes)

Though the implementation phase is apparently now imminent, the idea of corralling all of Gaza's population into Rafah and then moving them out has been circulating since the very beginning of Israel's response to the Hamas invasion of Oct 7 2023. A Ministry of Intelligence policy paper dated Oct 10 2023 and obtained by +972 Magazine that same month recommended herding Gaza's entire 2.2 million residents south and then forcing them into Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.

More recently, as Dave DeCamp notes at Antiwar.com, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich outlined a forcible displacement scheme in candid and grim terms that belie Netanyahu's characterization of coming emigration as "voluntary." In May, he boasted to attendees of a West Bank settlement conference that Palestinians will have no choice but to abandon a land rendered uninhabitable by the IDF: 

“Within a few months...Gaza will be totally destroyed. The Gazan citizens will be concentrated in the south. They will be totally despairing, understanding that there is no hope and nothing to look for in Gaza, and will be looking for relocation to begin a new life in other places.”

Where, exactly, will those "other places" be?    

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/08/2025 - 23:50