Zero Hedge

Geopolitical Risk – Hedging The Unhedgeable?

Geopolitical Risk – Hedging The Unhedgeable?

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

This is the first time (in a long time) that I contemplated not doing a weekend T-Report. What’s the point when by the time you read it, everything in the geopolitical realm may have changed? But, with so much going on and so much chatter about geopolitical (and other risks), it still seemed worth it to grind a report out.

Hopefully you saw our recent SITREPs addressing Iran’s launch of drones and missiles against Israel and the seizure of an Israeli-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz. We also sent an informal macro view, urging people to hedge ahead of the weekend (primarily direct distribution and via Bloomberg).

Those piggybacked well on our Geopolitical and Macro Webinar from Tuesday. The discussion started in the Middle East, but covered far more than that, directed largely by a high number of audience questions.

We are engaged in more and more intense conversations about how to manage the geopolitical risk. We have been thinking more and more in terms of Tactical vs Strategic.

We will get back to that in just a moment, but it is important and useful to revisit what happened in markets this week, especially relative to our views.

Intense Price Action

Last weekend we produced a chart that looked More Like A Rorschach Test than a Market Chart. It highlighted two points, both very relevant:

  1. There has been almost no consistent pattern between rates and stocks. Who would have thought that the 10-year could go from 4.07% on March 7th, to 4.6% on April 11th and the Nasdaq 100, of all indices, would go from 18,298 to 18,308 over that same period? Certainly not me, as we got the rate call correct, but haven’t seen the drop in stocks that we’ve been looking for (at least not yet). The temptation to end the bearish outlook for stocks on Wednesday night was very high as the Nasdaq rallied strongly from a post-CPI sell-off. I expected it to gather momentum rather than reverse. The only thing staying my hand was the fact that the S&P 500 did not get that same reversal (and some stubbornness). We had hit the high-end of my range on Treasury yields and stocks hadn’t budged. That was (and is) a concern as I’m no longer the bond bear that I was a week or so ago. Thursday brought even more doubt to clinging to the bearish call on equities, as they churned (seemingly unstoppably) higher. Then lo and behold, geopolitical risk raised its ugly head again, which brings us to the next point.

  2. Geopolitical risk is not being priced in and when it hits, it hits hard. The prior week, we had a 3% intraday down move in stocks from high to low as geopolitical risk hit the headlines. While not quite as dramatic, a benign overnight session turned into a 2% pullback from the overnight highs to the lows of the day, as the market was hit with a barrage of geopolitical headlines. AXIOS posted a “scoop” that Iran warned the U.S. to stay out of the fight with Israel. Certainly a step worth taking if you intend to follow up with your threat to retaliate against Israel (please see our SITREP webpage). There was more going on in markets than just that geopolitical move, but it is curious how little seems to be priced in. So little that headlines, not so dissimilar from the prior week, could once again roil markets. The market seems to expect countries to name the place, the date, and the time of strikes, and breathes a sigh of relief when those attacks don’t occur as quickly as expected. I’m not a military expert, but I’d hazard a guess that telling the enemy when and where you are going to strike is hardly ever successful. Better to get them on high alert, wait until they are tired, frazzled, and potentially prone to mistakes, then launch an attack. Which is why the Academy team has not breathed sighs of relief and continues to warn about the risk of escalation and expansion.

Two Noticeable Differences

This Week I managed to save my negative view on equities on Friday (though I’ve received pushback that it wasn’t due to geopolitical risk), and there are two things worth pointing out that confirm my nervousness about the market:

  • VIX closed at its highest level since October of last year (when the stock rally began in earnest) and briefly traded above 19, bringing it close to “peaks” seen in May of last year. Using options to hedge geopolitical risk makes sense, as we will discuss next. In any case, there seems to finally be some real fear.

  • Credit markets gave a hoot. Credit has been one of the most boring markets to cover this year (which is why we haven’t focused on it much – steady as she goes is good for investors, but not particularly interesting for macro strategists). That started to change this week.

    • High yield bonds dropped about 2% this week. While most of the move can be linked to Treasuries, that is a tighter than expected correlation with yields for the high yield market. It trades on price, not spread, and I think spread may be “intellectually” the correct way to think about high yield, but it is not the best metric on a “practical” basis. If anything, I’d tie high yield’s weak performance to the dismal performance of the Russell 2000, which was down 3% on the week.

    • IG credit fared better but showed some signs of pressure on spreads. CDX IG tracked the S&P 500 better than anything (it tends to be correlated to stocks, even more than actual bond spreads, by the nature of who trades it and how), but it widened on Wednesday. Then on Thursday, it barely moved tighter. As stocks were “ripping” higher, CDX barely budged. On Friday it moved higher to almost 55 bps. While still tight, this index seemed to struggle, which is the first time I can say that in months. Having been very bullish on credit, even at the start of the year, when we were looking for it to break out of “ranges” into ever tighter ranges, we turned negative a few weeks ago (mostly in sympathy with equities). This is the first time I’m increasing my bearishness on credit spreads, and not just because I’m bearish risky assets, but because credit now appears to have been caught offsides and has the potential to widen a meaningful amount from here (10 to 15 bps). It will come from hedging. The spread widening did not show up in bond indices, but bond indices are always the last to know what is going on in the bond market . When I look at runs, and the “tone” of the market, I suspect that bonds were marked on Friday at rather optimistic levels and those will be tested by TRACE prints on Monday at the open if the street tries to keep to those levels. This spread widening is happening with higher bond yields, making the move (albeit small so far) extremely important to watch.

With that, I believe that the geopolitical headlines were the catalyst for Friday’s drop, but there is more going on below the surface, none of which is encouraging.

Tactical vs Strategic and What to do About It

Strategic is for longer-term plays. China is not investible as an example. We’ve been largely negative on U.S./China relations for years and on their markets for some time (when the markets chose to get excited about re-opening and we primarily focused on the stress and pressure around National Security). It doesn’t mean that we can’t recommend trading it (I currently like long FXI vs short QQQ for example), but we’ve had a consistent view. That has been helpful to corporations who have been able to adapt their policies ahead of others and were better prepared as they got ahead of what has become a wave of companies looking to expand anywhere but China. For investors, while this call has been good, it wasn’t without bumps, as Chinese stocks had some fierce rallies during this period, and that is the difficulty (we are told) some investors face when trying to incorporate geopolitical risk into their positioning.

On the tactical front, asset managers may be able to take more advantage of geopolitical situations than corporations (though they too can use it for hedging purposes or determining timing of bond issues, etc.).

Even on the tactical front, there are issues around how to implement strategies. In less than 2 weeks, we’ve had 2 drawdowns that can be linked to the geopolitical risk that we have been warning clients about. Having said that, stocks are only down marginally in the past 7 or 8 days and experienced some gut-wrenching rallies if you were caught bearish (as I was). Certainly, this makes options an interesting way to hedge the geopolitical risk, which is likely what we saw on Friday as VIX finally showed signs of life.

A Gameplan for Managing Geopolitical Risk

Now that we’ve set the tone for a market where some cracks have started to appear, let’s go through some ways to take advantage of our views.

First, I am leaning towards the view that escalation and expansion is my base case. That is at the hawkish end of what the GIG said in the most recent SITREPS. The reason, I guess, that I’m at that end of the spectrum is I am not sure that Iran believes all of the rhetoric that has been coming from the U.S. about what we could or would or might do if Iran attacks Israel. Israel was attacked by Hamas and look at the current posture of the U.S. If I was an Iranian leader, I might think I could craft a plan where Iran could attack more directly than it has been (cutting through all the proxy “noise”) and not face severe reprisals from the U.S. Yes, Iran would need to be prepared for a strong response from Israel which is fighting for their existence, but that might be a chance I take, given what has gone on since the October 7th attack on Israel by Hamas.

So, I’m bearish and want to hedge (though I’m bearish for other reasons other than just the geopolitical risk, so that will affect how I think about the market, compared to those who are bullish and are just worried about the off chance of geopolitical risk).

What to hedge depends on your scenario for how any escalation and expansion develops. Here is my quick take:

  • Higher energy prices. Regardless of any potential economic slowdown from escalation and expansion I see energy prices spiking higher. Brent to at least $100 (from there, the Saudis potentially increase their production to generate nice profits and ease the pain for their customers). It should hit energy across the board as not only will Iranian production be cut, but shipments (so far not really affected) also will become affected and if some refining capacity is taken offline or is unable to ship, it would further amplify energy prices.

  • Bad for Western economies, less bad for China. We have already been decoupling. I’m clearly in the camp that we are competing with China rather than dependent on China (The Threat of Made by China 2025).

    • Higher energy prices will hit all economies, but we’ve seen, I believe, since the start of the war in Ukraine, that adversaries who are willing to “bend the rules” have been more successful at quickly adapting to changing geopolitical environments. All evidence points to Russia being back to close to full exports long before Germany gets back to full imports. I see no reason why it won’t be different this time and the West will face more energy inflation than China.

    • Shipping problems will be felt more acutely by the West than other countries. Not only have the Houthis been “selective” in which ships they attack, but China has also invested significant amounts of money into ports across the globe and that money should buy them preferential treatment (very smart moves by China to expand their influence globally, with a real practical potential benefit).

With that outlook on the potential consequences of escalation and expansion, we can examine hedging.

Options are interesting but pose a very different problem than when we use options to hedge against economic data or the Fed or other “known” events. If you worry about jobs being too strong or too hot, you can buy options that expire as close to NFP being released as possible, minimizing the cost. You may also be comfortable waiting to buy those options until we are closer to the time of the event. Why buy options for jobs data, for example, 3 weeks before the data, when you can buy something shortly before ADP comes out? Weekly options or even daily options are legitimate choices when hedging risks related to a specific event. That just isn’t viable with geopolitical risk. Unless the enemy decides to tell us the time and place (which is foolish for them to do), then we need to buy options today. But what maturity do we need? Weekly and daily options are cheaper than longer-dated options, but if you constantly have to roll those option positions, you generally would have been better off buying longer-dated options up front. Is that what happened on Friday? Investors, many of whom were far more worried about missing downside than upside, had been “cute” with their hedging strategies? Trying to “time” geopolitical events? The odds of having had protection in place on the two days you needed it in the past two weeks due to geopolitical headlines were probably not great. Remember, 0DTE and weekly options are too short dated to go into the VIX calculation. I’m going to view Friday as the first day people got serious about their hedging (at this point you might also be hedging the surprise that yields have risen, the Fed is being priced out of the market, and stocks didn’t care much or at all).

Buying VIX calls could be an interesting hedge. Various option selling strategies have become popular. From covered call writing to selling puts “where I’d want to own the stock” have become prevalent. There are ETF flows indicating the popularity of strategies that tend to suppress vol. Daily and weekly options have been favorites for some of these strategies, as over time, even more income is generated by doing it every day, than engaging in longer-dated options. If that vol suppression was to reverse, we could see a sharp spike in VIX. It might already be too late to jump into this market, but it is an interesting way of playing it. As a corollary, options on CDX widening could be interesting as the indices are correlated to stocks and credit spreads usually have a decent degree of correlation to equity vol, so that might be an interesting and potentially cheap way to try to take advantage of a larger move. I do think that the valuation problems are more isolated to equities than credit, but current positioning may be one-sided enough that you get good bang for your buck.

Long energy products and stocks. I wouldn’t bother with options here as I think there are so many reasons to like energy (still largely hated by hedge funds (contrarian), a more robust effort to ensure we have traditional energy as we build out sustainable energy, the rise of India, etc.). The commodities are particularly volatile, so I prefer energy companies, but both work. Given the volatility, you have to be careful on how overweight you are, but that is my favorite hedge.

Rates. This is tricky. First and foremost, we were looking for 10s to get into a 4.4% to 4.6% range, and we hit the top of the range. That alone makes it difficult to be bearish yields here (though suddenly, it seems more bearish views are emerging from the woodwork). We certainly had some “flight to quality” trades on Friday as the 10-year yield fell as low as 4.48% several times during the day. But that rally faded a bit into the close, to finish at 4.52%. I understand the “flight to safety” trade but think it will be short-lived.

  • Higher energy prices will stoke inflation fears.

  • As we’ve been in the process of decoupling, the potential economic slowdown won’t be immediate, making it difficult for yields to go much lower. In fact, there is an argument that it would hasten re-shoring and increase domestic jobs.

  • Military spending. Whatever the economic slowdown is, we should see spending on military increase globally in the event of escalation. It was bad enough seeing Russia invade Ukraine, but yet another larger conflict breaking out will (and should) make countries across the globe rethink current levels of military spending in a world where the military option is no longer off the table.

For those reasons, maybe you can buy some short-term calls on Treasuries, looking for what I think will be at most a “knee jerk” reaction that will fade quickly. Could we break 4.4% to the downside on yields if we get escalation? Sure, and I wouldn’t fight it too hard here at these levels, but I would be looking to fade the rally rather than piling on because “this time is different” and flight to safety doesn’t seem overly compelling to me (given my views above).

Bottom Line

It is difficult to get markets right, even if you knew the economic data ahead of time (who had hot CPI, with much higher bond yields, and the growth stocks outperforming?).

That is even more difficult on the geopolitical front where there is no set timetable, there may or may not be “discrete” events that we can manage risk around, and there are competing factors. On the one side, apparently peace talks continue to “progress” (though I suspect that is for show) and we’ve gone through an entire report without once highlighting that Israel is a nuclear power (should be a deterrent) or that Iran is on its way (which might give Israel the impetus to act, especially if they feel more and more isolated).

A lot going on, and Thursdays’ strength in equities makes me nervous but:

  • Neutral on rates, looking for an opportunity to short again.

  • Bearish on equities (think the VIX and CDX moves help that cause) but still need to respect the upside. I prefer bearish views with some calls rather than the other way around. • Definitely looking for a pullback in credit and suspect that there might be some good relative value ways to use credit markets to hedge out risk that haven’t been as picked over as things like VIX calls.

  • Like energy – though prefer the stocks to the commodities, but like both.

Good luck, hopefully this note is overkill, and we wake up Monday morning to a world that is a better and safer place, but it cannot hurt to be prepared.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/14/2024 - 10:30

Iran Threatens America's Military Bases Across Middle East If US Supports Israeli Counterattack

Iran Threatens America's Military Bases Across Middle East If US Supports Israeli Counterattack

The Saturday evening fireworks show in the Middle East marked Tehran's first full-scale military attack on Israel. Although largely unsuccessful, concerns mount that US military bases in the region might be targeted with ballistic missiles and suicide drones if the US supports an Israeli retaliation strike. 

Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel Hagari told The Washington Post that Iran launched 300 drones and missiles at Israel, adding that "more than 99 percent" had been intercepted by either Israel or the US. President Biden condemned Tehran's "brazen attack" on Israel and told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about America's "ironclad commitment" to Israel's security. However, the US president warned Netanyahu that the US won't support counterattack strikes against Iran. 

Ahron Bregman, a political scientist and expert in Middle East security issues at King's College in London, told The New York Times that Iran's direct attack on Israel last night was the first of its kind from its own territory, calling it a "historic event." 

Over the years, Tehran has used foreign proxies such as Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and Yemen's Houthi rebels to strike Israeli interests. At the moment, the Houthis are targeting US, UK, and Israeli-affiliated commercial vessels in the Southern Red Sea. And early Saturday, Iran seized an Israeli-affiliated container ship near the Strait of Hormuz

Tehran's attack on Israel is a major escalation. There are mounting concerns that Israel could strike back. If so, Iran warned Washington that US military bases could be in the crosshairs of missiles and suicide drones. 

"Our response will be much larger than tonight's military action if Israel retaliates against Iran," Iran's armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, told state media, as quoted by The Times of Israel. He said that Tehran warned Washington that any backing of an Israeli retaliation strike would result in US bases being targeted. 

"If the Zionist regime (Israel) or its supporters demonstrate reckless behavior, they will receive a decisive and much stronger response," Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi said in a statement.

Even before the attack, US bases in Iraq and Syria were peppered with attacks by Iran-backed militias. AP News said these bases were attacked more than 150 times since Oct. 7. 

Meanwhile, Iran's Fars news agency spoke with a "source" who said Iranian military officials are closely monitoring developments in Jordan, which could be the next area to target. 

Earlier this year, Iran-backed militias attacked a US base in northeast Jordan near the Syrian border with a drone that killed three US troops and injured three dozen. 

Remember the discussion former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark had with CNBC on Friday, where he mentioned that a "direct strike on Israel" by Iran could compel the Israeli Air Force to target "nuclear assets" in the country? 

The Middle East is entering uncharted territory where the next major conflict could be imminent. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/14/2024 - 09:55

US Helps Pro-Ukraine Media Run A Fog Machine Of War: Lee Fang

US Helps Pro-Ukraine Media Run A Fog Machine Of War: Lee Fang

Authored by Lee Fang via RealClear Investigations and LeeFang.com,

Ukraine’s American-backed fight against Russia is being waged not only in the blood-soaked trenches of the Donbas region but also on what military planners call the cognitive battlefield – to win hearts and minds.

A sprawling constellation of media outlets organized with substantial funding and direction from the U.S. government has not just worked to counter Russian propaganda but has supported strong censorship laws and shutdowns of dissident outlets, disseminated disinformation of its own, and sought to silence critics of the war, including many American citizens.

Economist Jeffrey Sachs, commentator Tucker Carlson, journalist Glenn Greenwald, and University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer are among the critics on both the left and the right who have been cast as part of a “network of Russian propaganda.”

But the figures targeted by the Ukrainian watchdog groups are hardly Kremlin agents. They simply have forcefully criticized dominant narratives about the war.

Sachs is a highly respected international development expert who has angered Ukrainian officials over his repeated calls for a diplomatic solution to the current military conflict. Last November, he gave a speech at the United Nations calling for a negotiated peace.

Mearsheimer has written extensively on international relations and is a skeptic of NATO expansion. He predicted that Western efforts to militarize Ukraine would lead to a Russian invasion.

Greenwald is a Pulitzer Prize-winning independent journalist who has criticized not just war coverage but media dynamics that suppress voices that run counter to U.S. narratives.

“What they mean when they demand censorship of ‘pro-Russia propaganda’ is anything that questions the US/EU role in the Ukraine war or who dissents from their narratives,” Greenwald has observed.

There’s no evidence of Kremlin influence over their viewpoints, but their comments alone are enough for a network of U.S.-backed Ukrainian media groups to tarnish these experts as Russian propagandists.  

As Congress debates major new funding to support the Ukrainian war effort, U.S. taxpayer dollars are already flowing to outlets such as the New Voice of Ukraine, VoxUkraine, Detector Media, the Institute of Mass Information, the Public Broadcasting Company of Ukraine and many others. Some of this money has come from the $44.1 billion in civilian-needs foreign aid committed to Ukraine. While the funding is officially billed as an ambitious program to develop high-quality independent news programs; counter malign Russian influence; and modernize Ukraine’s archaic media laws, the new sites in many cases have promoted aggressive messages that stray from traditional journalistic practices to promote the Ukrainian government’s official positions and delegitimize its critics.

VoxUkraine has released highly produced videos attacking the credibility of American opposition voices, including Sachs, Mearsheimer, and Greenwald. Detector Media, one of the most influential media watchdog groups, similarly produces a flow of social media and posts branding American critics of the war as part of a Russian disinformation operation. The outlets are also devoted to domestic disputes. Detector Media’s broadcasts have lampooned critics of Ukrainian government moves to shut down opposition media outlets.

It’s not only dissident voices targeted by the media groups, which are funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Detector Media went after the New York Times in February over a news report about hundreds of Ukrainians in the battle for Avdiivka who were captured or missing. The Ukrainian fact-check site offered little in terms of a rebuttal. Detector Media only cited a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Forces disputing the Times' story, which it labeled as "disinformation." The New Voice of Ukraine quoted a Ukrainian official describing the Times story as a “Russian Psyop,” a term for psychological warfare.

Unlike similar media development programs that USAID has led throughout the Middle East, Ukrainian outlets tend to produce a great deal of English content that trickles back into the domestic American audience and explicitly targets American foreign policy discourse.

The New Voice of Ukraine syndicates with Yahoo News. VoxUkraine is a fact-checking partner with Meta, which assists in removing content deemed “Russian disinformation” from Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. Detector Media has similarly led a consortium of nonprofit groups pressuring social media platforms to aggressively remove content critical of Ukraine.

"It makes more sense to have it in English because one of the things that happens is that the narrative that one encounters in the mainstream media in the West is referenced as the official Ukrainian voices," said Nicolai N. Petro, a professor specializing in Russian and Ukrainian affairs at the University of Rhode Island.

"These then become the known Ukrainian voices, although they're actually only an echo of the voice that we are projecting into Ukraine,” Petro added.

In the new aid earmarked for the war in Ukraine that Congress is now debating, a small portion of the $60 billion emergency spending package is devoted to continued USAID programs in the country. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview this week with Politico and Bild, argued that legislators skeptical of the aid package were under the influence of Russian propaganda.

They have their lobbies everywhere: in the United States, in the EU countries, in Britain, in Latin America, in Africa,” Zelenskyy said of Russian influence, without naming names. The pro-Russian pressure groups, the Ukrainian president added, relied on "certain media groups, citizens of the United States."

Information control is a central dynamic playing out in the Ukraine-Russia war. U.S. media have provided wide coverage of President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to clamp down on critical news outlets, enacting new criminal penalties for those publishing "false information" about the conflict. Many independent outlets in Russia have been forced to close, including the left-leaning radio station Ekho Moskvy. The Russian government has also blocked Russian-language news sites based in the West and arrested at least 22 journalists, including the Wall Street Journal's Evan Gershkovich.

But far less attention has been paid to the Ukraine government’s crackdown on independent and opposition media, a push aided by the U.S.-backed network of anti-disinformation groups. Even as Washington’s efforts to censor information at home are drawing greater scrutiny, its support of Ukraine’s efforts reflects the increasingly global reach of the American government’s propaganda arms.

"There's an information war going on between Russia and Ukraine, and the United States is not a disinterested party – we're an active participant,” said George Beebe, a director with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. "The U.S. government has been trying to shape perceptions, and it's very difficult to separate what's intended for foreign audiences from what seeps into the Anglosphere media, if you want to call it that, including here in the United States.”

American influence in Ukraine’s media environment stretches back to the end of the Cold War, though it has intensified in recent years. Since the outbreak of the war, USAID support has extended to 175 national Ukrainian media entities.

Over the last decade, efforts to crack down on speech have been increasingly justified as an effort to protect social media from disinformation. The U.S. helped set up new think tanks and media watchdogs and brought over communications specialists to guide Ukraine’s approach. Nina Jankowicz, the polarizing official whom President Biden appointed to lead the Department of Homeland Security's Disinformation Governance Board to police social media content, previously advised the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry on its anti-disinformation work.

In response to questions about the U.S.-backed anti-disinformation groups in Ukraine targeting Americans, the U.S. State Department provided a statement saying it defines disinformation as “as false or misleading information that is deliberately created or spread with the intent to deceive or mislead.” It added, “We accept there may be other interpretations or definitions and do not censor or coerce independent organizations into adopting our definition.” 

While noting that the U.S. “provides funding to credible independent media organizations to strengthen democracies in the countries we work in around the world,” the statement declared, “We do not control the editorial content of these organizations.”

However, disclosures indicate that the U.S. government and its contractors tasked with reforming Ukraine’s institutions have directly set the agenda for Ukrainian outlets. Immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, the USAID dispensed emergency grants to its media partners, partly through the Zinc Network, a contractor based in London that has been accused of setting up covert public relations campaigns on behalf of the British government.

The grant description notes that the money went to the Zinc Network and Detector Media to assist the Ukrainian government with strategic communications and to "undermine Kremlin information operations.” Far from independent reporting, the grant instructions asked the recipients to provide "quick, effective PR and media engagement." In addition to countering Russian disinformation, the money was intended to “maintain public morale” and "bolster international support for solidarity with Ukraine."

Last September, journalist Jack Poulson reported on a leaked report from the Zinc Network’s Open Information Partnership, which helps coordinate the activities of several anti-Russian disinformation nonprofits around Europe backed by NATO members, including Detector Media.

The lengthy report defines disinformation as not only false or misleading content but also "verifiable information which is unbalanced or skewed, amplifies, or exaggerates certain elements for effect, or uses emotive or inflammatory language to achieve effects which fit within existing Kremlin narratives, aims, or activities."

In other words, factual information with emotional language that simply overlaps with anything remotely connected to Russian viewpoints is considered disinformation, according to this U.S.-backed consulting firm helping to guide the efforts of Ukrainian think tanks and media.

Many of the broad narratives the report identified as Russian disinformation follow this vague rubric. These included allegations that NATO is using Ukraine as a pawn in a proxy war against Russia and concerns that Ukrainian politicians are corrupt.

Above, Ukraine war critic John Mearsheimer on "The Grayzone,"
the YouTube program of Aaron MatÄ—, another critic of the war.

The report goes on to blame many British and American experts who “portray the West as being divided, corrupt, or nefarious” as part of the Russian disinformation system. The document names liberal journalists Max Blumenthal and Newsweek’s Ellie Cook, as well as Republican figures such as former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and Arizona Congressman Andy Biggs, as voices that end up featured in Russian propaganda and disinformation.

The Open Information Partnership report suggests new legislation to counter "malign foreign actors" and for European intelligence agencies to "do more" and provide a "unified approach" against the dangers of disinformation. Zinc Network did not respond to a request for comment.

Ukraine’s government has also worked with U.S. government officials and others to censor its American critics. One prominent example is Aaron Mate—, a RealClearInvestigations contributor who has criticized U.S. policy regarding Ukraine in other outlets. Following the Russian invasion, Twitter, under its old ownership, flagged Mate— to be censored after the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the Ukrainian intelligence agency, included him on a list of accounts sent to the FBI that were "suspected by the SBU in spreading fear and disinformation.”

Just months after the social media request, Ross Burley, a former Zinc Network and Open Information Partnership official now with the Centre for Information Resilience, spoke openly about his desire to censor critics of the war, including Mate—. Burley, who "designed, implemented, and led several of the UK Government’s counter disinformation programmes," according to a now-deleted profile, discussed the rise of independent media critical of the Ukrainian government and Western support for a war that has devastated that country. He discussed the conflict at the Opinion Festival in Tallinn, Estonia, in August 2022.

Burley argued that social media platforms needed more “responsibility” regarding what types of content to allow. "Even I saw Russell Brand, who has a huge following on YouTube, was interviewing a journalist called Aaron Mate— on his channel," said Burley, who added that it is "incredibly irresponsible for YouTube and other social media companies to continue to host these people.”

Silencing Zelensky's Enemies Within

The organizations supported by the U.S. government have also sought to silence critics inside Ukraine.  Before the war, in one of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s first controversial acts to stifle political opposition, he moved in February 2021 to close television channels 112, NewsOne, and ZIK – stations owned by Viktor Medvedchuk and his associate Taras Kozak, former lawmakers with the Opposition Party of Life, a bloc opposed to Zelensky – over allegations of Kremlin ties.

"The sanctions against TV channels of Mr. Medvedchuk are not about media and freedom of speech at all," said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky's chief of staff. "This is only about effective countermeasures against fakes and foreign propaganda."

Later that year, in December 2021, the United Nations Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights released a statement that criticized the Ukrainian crackdown on journalists and peaceful expression. The report cited the closure of opposition television channels and other media.

The USAID-funded Ukrainian media network, however, was quick to defend the Zelensky government. The decision to close the outlets, wrote Detector Media, was "not an attack on freedom of speech" because the channels, the group argued, provided "informational support of Russian aggression against Ukraine."

In May 2022, the Zelensky government widely expanded its efforts to outlaw the political opposition. Zelensky moved to ban 11 political parties over alleged ties to Russia, the largest of which was Medvedchuk’s Opposition Party of Life, which previously held 44 seats in the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament.

Later that summer, other bills to crack down on media rights that had failed to pass in the past over civil liberty concerns were brought back into consideration. Mykyta Poturayev, a Ukrainian legislator and close ally of Zelensky, re-introduced the On Media Law.

The legislation features provisions to penalize hate speech and disinformation, as well as broad powers to limit certain forms of foreign influence. Among its most contentious provisions is the power granting a council controlled by Zelensky and his allies to ban media outlets without a court order. 

Before Zelensky signed the bill in December 2022, many journalists spoke out against the legislation. The European Federation of Journalists and the Committee to Protect Journalists denounced it as an extreme violation of journalistic freedom. Ukraine's National Union of Journalists described the bill as the "biggest threat to free speech in independent [Ukraine's] history."

Again, the USAID-funded media groups provided pivotal support amid a tightening on journalistic freedom. The push to support the bill was largely led by U.S.-government-backed think tanks and media outlets. As the Ukrainian legislature moved forward, Detector Media reported a new statement from select journalists and nonprofits who supported the controversial legislation. The statement argued that the Zelensky-appointed council overseeing media was an “independent regulator” and urged the adoption of the law as a tool to counteract foreign aggression.

The statement was organized by Ukraine's Center for Democracy and Rule of Law. In 2022, the group received 76.67% of its budget from USAID, USAID’s contractors, and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a U.S. government-funded nonprofit that was spun out of the Central Intelligence Agency in the 1980s.

The other signatories of the statement included the Laboratory of Digital Security and Human Rights Platform – both funded by USAID and Internews, a California-based USAID contractor that manages much of the agency’s Ukraine media work. Internews Ukraine, the company’s in-house Ukraine media outlet, also signed the statement supporting the On Media Law.

Internews is a significant pillar of USAID's $35 million Ukraine media program. Other European governments and private sector donors, led by billionaires Pierre Omidyar via the Omidyar Network and George Soros via the International Renaissance Foundation, have financed the network of media and activists working with the USAID groups.

Disclosures suggest other supplemental funding has been rushed to local Ukrainian media. In 2021, before Russia's invasion, Detector Media received 35.1% of its nearly $1 million budget from Internews. New data released by the federal government shows that USAID provided a $2.5 million direct grant to Detector Media last year.

In a report titled "Long-Term Investments Pay Dividends in Ukraine," NED noted that U.S.-backed groups have been pivotal in reshaping the country's law. It pointed to a coalition of nonprofits led by the Coalition Reanimation Package of Reforms, a USAID-backed group that mobilized civil society to lobby for legal and legislative changes. The group was pivotal in the push for the On Media Law. The group hailed the law's passage, calling it one of the major achievements of reforms passed during the war.

After the legislation was passed, Detector Media attacked “Pro-Russian Telegram channels” for spreading “fakes and manipulations” about the law. One fact-check published by the group claimed that the law “had to be adopted in the context of Ukraine’s European integration.” The post countered claims that the law introduces authoritarian forms of censorship by pointing to the fact that “media professionals and members of the public were involved in its development.”

NED, the former CIA arm, has publicly touted the effort to pass the On Media Law for its work in reshaping Ukraine’s media landscape. In a report written in collaboration with Detector Media, the group discusses the law with respect to bolstering efforts to “rid the Ukrainian information space of harmful Russian propaganda.” The report noted some journalistic criticism of the proposal, concluded that it was "supported by the majority of media related civil society organizations and international donors for its expansion of democratic accountability in the information space."

Unmentioned in NED and Detector Media’s claims of widespread media support for the law is its own central role and that of other USAID-backed groups.

New Difficulties Reporting

In the midst of the first months of the Russian invasion, many in Ukraine readily accepted the need for emergency government influence. The Ukrainian government condensed the major television channels into a single “United News” national broadcast that continues today. Many journalists voluntarily paused critical reporting of the Ukrainian government to focus on coverage of the Russian invasion.

Now, over two years into the conflict, reporters are facing new difficulties in reporting on routine issues. Journalists taking a critical look at the government are facing intimidation and threats.

The Columbia Journalism Review has chronicled the precarious situation independent journalists face in today's Ukraine. In January, a pair of thugs went to the home of Yuriy Nikolov, a prominent investigative journalist who has uncovered scandals involving military catering contracts. The men tried to break down Nikolov's door, and according to his mother, who was home, called him a "provocateur" and a "traitor."

That same month, an anonymous video released videos from hidden cameras showing journalists with Bihus.Info – a local media outlet that has extensively reported on Ukrainian government corruption – using illegal drugs in private. Denys Bihus, the head of the site, has reported on Ukraine's intelligence service's involvement in the surveillance and intimidation of his media outlet.

Anatoly Shariy, a controversial Ukrainian blogger living in exile over repeated death threats, has clashed repeatedly with USAID's network of media outlets. Shariy is known for his blistering criticism of the 2014 Maidan Revolution that toppled pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych and set Ukraine on a path to alignment with NATO. The SBU, the Ukrainian intelligence agency, has accused him of "high treason" over alleged ethnic slurs targeted towards the people of the western region of Ukraine.

In July 2023, the agency added new charges, claiming Shariy distributed staged videos of Ukrainian prisoners under detention by Russian forces. The SBU has attempted to extradite Shariy, who has moved from the Netherlands to Spain and reportedly to Italy for asylum.

Online reporting in English, though, is dominated by USAID media outlets. A search for Shariy’s name returns half a dozen articles by VoxUkraine, Detector Media, the Institute of Mass Information, and the New Voice of Ukraine. The articles trash Shariy as a pro-Russian propagandist and criminal, guilty of a variety of speech-related crimes.

“In his Telegram posts, Shariy tries to emphasize that Russia is more united and stronger than Ukraine,” Detector Media claimed. “He rejects the severing of any ties between Ukraine and Russia. Even in the face of proven Russian lies and evidence of their crimes, Shariy continues to promote narratives favorable to Russia and disseminate disinformation.”

The Detector Media article provides little substance in terms of any illegal actions beyond Shariy’s viewpoints. But expressing viewpoints that run counter to Ukraine and NATO policies with respect to the war is enough to make an individual an enemy of the state.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/14/2024 - 09:20

US, UK Ban Deliveries Of Russian Copper, Nickel And Aluminum To Western Metals Exchanges: Here's What This Means

US, UK Ban Deliveries Of Russian Copper, Nickel And Aluminum To Western Metals Exchanges: Here's What This Means

On Friday, the US and UK imposed new restrictions on trading Russian aluminum, copper and nickel in the latest hollow bid to curb President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war machine (as discussed previously, Russian oil is now trading above the western embargo "cap" price virtually everywhere).

According to Bloomberg, the rules prohibit delivery of new supplies from Russia to the London Metal Exchange, where the global benchmark prices are set, as well as to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The restrictions apply to copper, nickel and aluminum produced on or after April 13, and the US is also banning Russian imports of all three metals.

Yet like the case of oil sanctions, the decision is purely for popular theater as it will not prevent Russia from being able to sell its metals, since the sanctions do not prevent non-US persons and entities from buying physical Russian copper, nickel or aluminum. While the LME plays a pivotal role in setting global prices, the vast majority of metals are bought and sold between miners, traders and manufacturers without ever seeing the inside of an LME warehouse. Already since 2022, the share of Russian metals sales to China has increased substantially, as some western buyers sought alternative suppliers.

Still, as Bloomberg notes, the new restrictions are likely to affect prices on the LME, which are used as a benchmark in a huge number of contracts around the world. For months, an influx of Russian metal has weighed on LME prices - particularly for aluminum - with non-Russian supplies trading at a premium.

The sanctions will also affect the willingness of traders to handle Russian metal, as many view the ability to deliver on the LME as essential, and some contracts include clauses specifying that they will be void if the metal ceases to be LME-deliverable.

That means the metal - like Russian sourced oil - is likely to trade at a widening discount to other origins, thus reducing the revenue Russia receives, while still continuing to flow into the global market and avoiding the impact of full-scale sanctions on crucial raw materials while making billions more for global commodity merchants like Glencore, Vitol and Trafigura who will be willing - and very well paid - middlemen to assist buyers in evading sanctions. Russian metals exports were worth $25 billion in 2022 and $15 billion in 2023.

“We will reduce Russia’s earnings while protecting our partners and allies from unwanted spillover effects,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a joint statement with her UK counterpart, Jeremy Hunt, who added that the move “will prevent the Kremlin funneling more cash into its war machine.”

No you won't. All you will achieve is raising the prices of commodities further, but yes, the sanction will raise questions for Glencore which has remained one of the biggest traders of Russian metal thanks to a long-term contract with Rusal.

Russia is a major producer of the three metals, accounting for about 6% of global nickel production, 5% of aluminum and 4% of copper. However, Russian supplies account for a much larger percentage of metal on the LME. At the end of March, Russian metal accounted for 36% of the nickel in LME warehouses, 62% of the copper and 91% of the aluminum.

Comex copper futures rose after the announcement, while shares of US metal producers including Alcoa Corp. gained in post-market trading.

For a more practical perspective of what the sanctions mean, we go to commodity trading powerhouse Goldman Sachs, whose trading desk has published a note discussing the short and long-term impacts of the delivery ban.

Is this a full sanction on Russian metal ? No, OFAC prohibit:

  • a. Russian metal being imported into the US
  • b. OTC derivates settling against Russian metal
  • c. US persons’ from warranting Russian metal produced after 13th April 2024 on either the COMEX or LME.
     
  • There has not been any sanction around the consumption of Russian metal.

How much aluminium, copper and nickel does the US currently import ? Very little, imports for 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively were

  • Aluminium (HS code 7601): 215k, 190k, 17k MT
  • Copper (HS code 7408 + 7403): 10k, 0k, 0k MT
  • Nickel (HS code 7502): 5k, 10k , 0.6k MT
     
  • Therefore Goldman expects the impact on US physical premiums to be modest because US consumers have already diversified their supply chains away from Russian metal

Are many OTC derivatives settled against Russian metal ? Goldman does not think the Services Determination clause prohibiting settlement of derivatives in Russian metal will impact price because.

  • i) Most OTC derivatives are cash settled; in our experience brand specific physically settled options and swaps are rare
  • ii) Off-take agreements and long-term supply contracts, which probably still do reference Russian metal, are likely not to be classified as a derivative under the Services Determination clause (otherwise end-users would be prevented from consuming Russian metal which would be a de-facto full sanction).

What happens to LME inventory? Unclear until we receive further guidance from the LME, which is scheduled for 11am LDN on Sunday. Currently neither UK nor US persons’ can deliver fresh Russian metal. The question market participants are asking is whether the LME will restrict all future deliveries of Russian metal (not just from UK or US persons).

What % of LME inventory is currently Russian? As of March 28, the LME provided the following breakdown:

  • Aluminium: 312k MT (91%)
  • Copper: 61k MT (62%)
  • Nickel: 25k MT (36%)
     
  • Which is why LME term structure is in such wide contangos (see below point)

What is the impact on LME spreads? Assuming only US and UK persons’ are restricted from delivering fresh Russian production then the c/3M spread (metal for physical delivery at t+2 vs metal for deliver in 3 months’ time) should trade to full finance, because a) the cohort of participants who can take delivery of Russian metal on the LME is reduced, and b) non-US / UK names are incentivised to delivery excess units to achieve a rent deal. Forwards should tighten due to expectation of lower future supply (as Rusal and Norilsk send a higher % of their production to China).

Can China compensate for lower Russian supply? Yes but it takes time. The dynamic in aluminium, where Chinese demand increased by >10%, yet LME struggled to move higher because China were meeting ex-China end-use demand (solar) via primary tolling will, over the medium-term, limit the impact of lower Russian primary supply to ex-China, but it takes time, and won’t impact price today.

What is the is the impact on flat price? Yesterday’s announcement did not reduce the supply of spot metal to the ex-China market; end-users are not restricted from consuming Russian metal, US consumption of Russian metal is already essentially zero, and Rusal (aluminium) and Norilsk (nickel) will not immediately divert supply to China due to arbitrage economics and capacity constraints - Rusal rail aluminium to Northern China and Norilsk struggle to price against SHFE due to persistent negative ARB caused from Indonesia supply growth, which is tolled via China , for example. That being said, history has taught us that the market will price in some “full-sanction” risk premium which when combined with the current macro bid (reflation narrative etc) means we expect a complex wide rally on the Monday’s Shanghai open. At some point the rally (in vol and price) should be faded (especially in nickel), but given where CTA momentum indicators are currently, this is a debate for another day.

Links

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/14/2024 - 08:45

The Arrival Of Russian Troops In Niger Will Reshape America's Regional Calculations

The Arrival Of Russian Troops In Niger Will Reshape America's Regional Calculations

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It was wondered last month whether the US could salvage its Nigerien base deal after the military authorities scrapped their partnership pact upon being disrespected by visiting American officials. The news that Russian instructors just entered the country on a training mission likely spells the end of the Pentagon’s influence there. The departure of US troops might soon follow, though it’s unclear whether it’ll due to the military authorities explicitly demanding it or voluntary to avoid Russia spying on them.

In any case, this is a monumental development since it means that Russian forces are now present in all three of the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation’s states after deploying to its Malian core several years back and then entering Burkina Faso in January. Their bloc also withdrew from ECOWAS later that month too, which bolstered their credentials as a new regional integration framework for others to join if they’re interested. The combined effect of all this is that Western influence in the Sahel was dealt a deathblow.

It's premature to pop the champagne, however, since the US is expected to pivot to the Ivory Coast as was explained here in mid-March two weeks before a top Alt-Media influencer wrote the same here in a way that indisputably plagiarized some of the aforesaid analysis.

It’s important to share a side-by-side comparison showing the three occasions where the second writer plagiarized the first, since those who were exposed to that later article might not be aware that its ideas were stolen from an earlier one:

* First Article: “Guinea is the top contender (to defect from ECOWAS) due to its recent political history and having the geographic capability to provide the neighboring Sahelian Alliance/Confederation with reliable sea access.”

- Second Article: “Guinea already offers the geographical capacity to provide the alliance with credible maritime access. That will lead to the progressive extinction of the western-controlled, Nigeria-based ECOWAS.”

-----

* First Article: “[The Ivory Coast and Senegal] are thus considered possible ‘targets’ of the Russian-partnered Sahelian Alliance/Confederation, hence the need to ‘protect’ them more than Chad and Gabon. Regarding those last two, Chad has impressively recalibrated its previously Western-centric foreign policy to pragmatically balance between that bloc and Russia.”

- Second Article: “Ivory Coast is more strategic to Washington than, for instance, Chad because Ivorian territory is very close to the Sahel alliance. Still, Chad has already recalibrated its foreign policy, which is no longer Western-controlled and comes with a new emphasis on getting closer to Moscow.”

-----

* First Article: “The stage is therefore set for the US to deploy drones to France’s Ivorian base on exaggerated anti-terrorist pretexts that really serve to keep the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation in check while also monitoring Russian activity there.”

- Second Article: “What lies ahead for Empire? Perhaps US 'anti-terror' drones shared with Paris at the French base in the Ivory Coast to keep the Sahel alliance in check.”

Having clarified for the uninformed reader that whatever they might have read circulating across the Alt-Media Community about this before from that second author was actually plagiarized from the first one, it’s time to move on to analyzing exactly what the consequences could be of such a move.

Prior to Russia’s new training mission in Niger, it was explained here how that country might have kept US forces while kicking out the French as geopolitical insurance of sorts from being targeted by Hybrid War.

Accordingly, that exact same scenario is now more likely than ever as a result of Niger canceling its aforesaid insurance policy out of self-respect after being disrespected by visiting US officials, though that doesn’t mean that it’s imminent though.

Any potential US drone base redeployment to shared French facilities in the Ivory Coast would place neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, the latter of which is the newly formed Sahelian Alliance/Confederation’s core, in the West’s crosshairs like never before.

Mali is already struggling to fend off offensives from religious extremists and ethnic (Tuareg) separatists, and this could become more difficult if the US and France put more pressure upon it along the southern front. The worst-case scenario for Mali would be if one or both of their spy agencies also begin operating out of Mauritania, which readers can learn a bit more about here, and begin to use it and the Ivory Coast in the same way as they’re presently using Poland to wage their proxy war on Russia in Ukraine.

Russia might be requested to scale up its military assistance to Mali if that happens, which would probably be sufficient for stopping these Western-backed proxy offensives on the Sahelian Alliance/Confederation’s core state, but then complementary ones might begin elsewhere.

Burkina Faso can also be influenced from the Ivory Coast, while Niger remains vulnerable to influence from historically pro-Western Nigeria even though Abuja has made a big deal about wanting to join BRICS.

With these factors in mind, while the possibly impending withdrawal of US forces from Niger is definitely a victory of sorts, the proverbial “Battle for the Sahel” in the New Cold War is likely far from over.

Those who celebrate shouldn’t do so excessively because the worst Hybrid War pressure might be yet to come, though that all depends on how competent the American and French spy agencies are, which of course can’t be taken for granted after their spree of regional setbacks over the past few years.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/14/2024 - 07:00

Illegal Immigration Costs American Households Hundreds Of Billions Annually

Illegal Immigration Costs American Households Hundreds Of Billions Annually

Authored by Chadwick Hagan via The Epoch Times,

Illegal immigration weighs heavily on the wallets of hardworking American taxpayers - to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

Still, the Biden administration turns a blind eye to these fiscal strains, neglecting the toll on our economy, the structural integrity of our nation, and the safety of our citizens.

Estimates suggest that illegal immigrants cost each household about $1,000, adding up to more than $120 billion a year.

Sources such as Newsweek hint that the true cost may be even higher, possibly reaching $150 billion annually, an amount shared by both federal and state governments. In all actuality, the financial impact could be much worse.

The situation continues to deteriorate by the day. Just this past December, Border Patrol recorded 249,785 arrests along the Mexican border, a 31 percent spike from November 2023 and a 13 percent surge from the December 2022 record.

Since President Joe Biden’s inauguration and the adoption of his open borders approach, more than 7.2 million illegal immigrants have streamed into the United States through the southern border, a number surpassing the population of 36 states.

Some estimate that number to be nearer to 10 million. The lawlessness makes it impossible to keep an accurate count.

The repercussions of illegal immigration cast long shadows over various aspects of our society, from heightened crime rates to suppressed wages to the depletion of taxpayer resources. Public services face strain, with illegal immigrants accessing emergency health care, enrolling their children in public schools, and tapping into social welfare programs. Some argue their willingness to accept lower wages drives down earnings, leading to reduced tax revenues and increased reliance on social welfare programs among low-wage workers, citizens, and legal residents alike. Even our property tax is paying for illegal immigrants. This generational problem demands pragmatic consideration and competent leadership.

To exacerbate matters, if illegal immigrants operate solely within cash transactions, much of their income goes undocumented.

This is why I advocate for measures such as the Fair Tax Act, which replaces income tax with a consumption tax, ensuring revenue from cash transactions is taxed.

While proponents argue that illegal immigrants are paying into our tax system, and even our Social Security system, it is hard to tell the difference between fact and fiction.

According to a 2023 National Bureau of Economic Research paper (Working Paper 31086, “Measuring the Characteristics and Employment Dynamics of U.S. Inventors”), the majority of innovation in America is driven by white and Asian (including Indian) individuals.

The paper estimates that 96.5 percent of U.S. inventors were white or Asian as of 2016.

The question remains: Why are we allowing our borders to be overrun by illegal immigrants when we need controlled and tactical immigration to pay into our depleted social systems and kick-start the next wave of innovation?

Why would the United States prohibit valuable workers from becoming American citizens while on work visas yet entice unskilled and impoverished workers to enter the country and stay illegally?

These unanswered questions only add fuel to the fires of conspiracy and intrigue.

Giving priority to visas for highly skilled workers will not only strengthen our domestic initiatives but also stimulate innovation and bolster economic growth. It is beyond puzzling that the United States of America continues to welcome unskilled workers when our nation’s prosperity hinges on innovation and skilled labor. The Democratic Party’s reluctance to use the term “illegal immigrants,” echoed by figures such as Nikki Haley, is equally confusing. As Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rightly pointed out, coming to this country illegally is illegal.

We need to fast-track immigrants who are likely to innovate and create wealth instead of prioritizing low-skilled workers.

It’s time for responsible leadership to step up and implement immigration policies that benefit the United States and the American people.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 23:20

These Are Asia's Richest Billionaires

These Are Asia's Richest Billionaires

As of the start of April, Mukesh Ambani (66) is the richest man in Asia, with a net worth of $116.1 billion, according to Forbes’ Real-Time Billionaires List,

Ambani is the chairman of Reliance Industries Limited, a conglomerate that focuses not only on petrochemicals, but also textiles and telecommunications. As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, Ambani ranks 11th on Forbes’ worldwide list, which is headed by Bernard Arnault & family (LVMH) with $221.8 billion, Jeff Bezos (Amazon) with $197.5 billion and Elon Musk (Tesla, SpaceX, X formerly Twitter) with $189.0 billion.

 Asia's Richest Billionaires | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In second place - and some 32.8 billion dollars behind - comes 61-year-old Gautam Adani who is the chairperson of the Adani Group, a conglomerate that deals with businesses exporting and importing raw materials and finished goods, including coal trading, mining, oil and gas exploration, as well as ports, energy and agricultural commodities.

He is succeeded by Zhong Shanshan (69), with a net worth of $64.5 billion. Shanshan is the founder of beverages company Nongfu Spring as well as the founder of Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise, a private Chinese company and major supplier of Covid-19 testing kits.

Rounding off the top ten comes Savitri Jindal (74), the widow of Om Prakash Jindal who founded the Jindal Group in India, whose interests lay in steel, power, cement and infrastructure, with an estimated net worth of $34.8 billion, followed by Shiv Nadar (78), founder and chairman of the IT enterprise HCL Technologies, with $34.5 billion.

The top ten richest people in Asia have a total net worth of $542.1 billion.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 22:45

Snopes Changed Fact-Check After Pressure From Biden Administration: Emails

Snopes Changed Fact-Check After Pressure From Biden Administration: Emails

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The fact-checking website Snopes changed one of its ratings after pressure from President Joe Biden’s administration, newly disclosed emails show.

Snopes on Jan. 10, 2023, said that there was some truth to a claim that President Biden’s administration was planning to ban gas stoves.

Under a heading of “what’s true,” Snopes said that “The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), a federal agency, is currently considering a ban on gas stoves if they can’t be made safer, due to concerns over harmful indoor pollutants that cause health and respiratory problems.

Under another heading, it said that the ban has not been put in place.

The article quoted Richard Trumka Jr., a CPSC commissioner, as saying that “any option is on the table” when dealing with gas stoves. “Products that can’t be made safe can be banned,” Mr. Trumka told Bloomberg a few days prior.

Pamela Rucker Springs, a spokeswoman for the CPSC, hours after the rating was published contacted Snopes writer Nur Ibrahim, the newly disclosed emails show.

She said she it was “not accurate to say that CPSC is ‘considering a ban on gas stoves’ and that Mr. Trumka’s views ”do not represent official statements on behalf of the commission.”

“We would appreciate a correction to this story,” Ms. Springs said.

Mr. Ibrahim responded the following day saying Snopes would “correct the article.”

Snopes then changed the fact-check rating from “mixture” to “false.”

The CPSC “is not currently considering a ban on gas stoves, though a commissioner said ‘anything is on the table’ if they can’t be made safer,” the updated article states.

Ms. Springs sent a link to the updated page to White House official Michael Kikukawa, the newly disclosed documents show. “Sent over tough letter to this writer yesterday when the initial claim was rated as ’mixed,'” she wrote.

“Nice!! So helpful going forward,” Mr. Kikukawa responded.

Mr. Kikuwaka told Ms. Springs in another email that the White House would be circulating a statement “making clear POTUS does not support banning gas stoves” and sharing social media posts from the commission and Mr. Trumka. “Will also be pushing people your way,” he wrote.

The emails were obtained by the Functional Government Initiative nonprofit through the Freedom of Information Act.

“A commissioner appointed by President Biden wanted to ban gas stoves, and he got caught, provoking a public outcry. So, the CPSC staff leaned on Snopes, seeking to counter the narrative by splitting hairs about commission processes. And the White House finds this ‘helpful.’ Helpful with what?“ Pete McGinnis, spokesman for the nonprofit, said in a statement.

”This goes beyond dysfunction—the government using sympathetic media to censor inconvenient news. The American people deserve both to keep their gas stoves and to know the truth about what regulations government officials are considering.”

Snopes did not respond to a request for comment.

Closer to Ban

The CPSC framed the possibility of banning stoves as solely on Mr. Trumka, issuing a statement from Alexander Hoehn-Saric.

The chairman of the commission said, “I am not looking to ban gas stoves and the CPSC has no proceeding to do so.”

At the same time, CPSC officials acknowledged that they were investigating emissions from gas stoves and were “exploring new ways to address any health risks.”

Mr. Trumka said in an internal memorandum reviewed by The Epoch Times that there was “sufficient information” for the commission to issue a notice of a proposed rule “proposing to ban gas stoves in homes.” He told Peter Feldman, another commissioner, that “emerging evidence” showed that “gas stoves in homes emit toxic gases that cause illnesses and that lower-cost, safer alternatives are available.” The Committee to Unleash Prosperity, which obtained the memo, said that it proved the administration ”intended to ban gas stoves.”

The CPSC later approved a final notice of rulemaking offered by Mr. Trumka asking for “proposed solutions” to “hazards” from gas stoves.

That notice has not appeared to have resulted in a new rule as of yet.

Separately, the U.S. Department of Energy issued a proposed rule that would ban about half of the gas stoves on the market. When the final rule was released in January, though, it had been watered down and only affected about three percent of gas stoves.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 22:10

Investors Bet On Further Rise In US Gasoline Prices

Investors Bet On Further Rise In US Gasoline Prices

By John Kemp, senior energy analyst at Reuters

Portfolio investors have amassed one of the largest bullish positions in U.S. gasoline futures and options since before the coronavirus pandemic, anticipating that prices will continue climbing over the next few months.

U.S. gasoline has emerged as the most attractive part of the petroleum complex for investors betting prices will rise further this year in the run up to presidential and congressional elections in November.

Relatively low inventories, employment gains, strong household income growth and the prospect of an active hurricane season are expected to keep gasoline consumption high and inventories under pressure.

Ukraine’s drone attacks on refineries in Russia threaten to tighten the international supply situation even further and have prompted the Biden administration to warn Ukraine’s government to change its targeting.

BUOYANT CONSUMPTION

U.S. gasoline consumption is correlated with employment and household incomes so the current rise in nonfarm jobs and wage rates are likely to underpin strong use in 2024.

Domestic consumption has been trending structurally lower since 2007 as a result of improvements in fuel economy, ethanol blending and more recently the deployment of electric and hybrid vehicles. But lower domestic use has been more than offset by strong growth in exports, mostly to Mexico and other countries in Latin America, which has kept overall refinery production trending higher.

Strong domestic consumption during the peak summer driving season is likely to cause inventories to tighten cyclically and exert upward pressure on prices in 2024.

ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON

Nearly half of the total refinery capacity in the U.S. is located along the Gulf of Mexico on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.

Every year there is a small but non-zero chance refinery processing will be disrupted by a direct hit from a major hurricane.

The North Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June through November with activity peaking in August and September (“Tropical cyclone climatology”, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2024).

The precise number of storms, their intensity and the location of landfalls is highly variable and notoriously difficult to predict months in advance.

But the expected shift from El Nino to La Nina conditions underway in the central and eastern Pacific is often associated with an increased number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic (“Impacts of El Nino and La Nina on the hurricane season,” NOAA, 2014).

At the same time, Atlantic storm creation and intensity is strongly correlated with sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and the tropical North Atlantic.

Tropical storm formation requires sea surface temperatures of at least 26°C, among a number of other conditions (“Cyclogenesis”, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2017).

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic were at a record seasonal high in March 2024, according to data from the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre.

Sea surface temperatures surged higher around the world, including a very strong warm El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific, but the exceptional warming was most pronounced in the Atlantic.

Surface temperatures in the Atlantic from 5° to 20° North and from 30° to 60° West averaged almost 27.1°C in March, which was more than 1.5°C above the long-term seasonal average.

If the surface warmth persists into the second and third quarters it is likely to result in an above average number of tropical storms and more major hurricanes in 2024 and an elevated threat to the Gulf Coast refineries.

Colorado State University researchers have predicted an “extremely active” hurricane season in 2024 (“Forecast for 2024 hurricane activity,” CSU, April 4, 2024).

The number of named tropical storms and hurricanes is expected to be more than 50% higher than the long-term average.

BULLISH POSITION

Hedge funds and other money managers owned bullish long positions equivalent to 99 million barrels on April 2, the highest number for more than four years.

After adjusting for a minority of bearish short positions, the net position was 84 million barrels, which was in the 88th percentile for all weeks since 2013.

Fund managers were more bullish on gasoline than on crude (56th percentile) or middle distillates such as diesel and gas oil (53rd percentile).

Bullish long positions in gasoline outnumbered bearish short ones by a ratio of more than 6.4:1 (68th percentile) on April 2.

The long-short ratio suggests positioning is less stretched than the absolute number of long positions, but there is still downside risk to prices when long positions are unwound.

LOW INVENTORIES

On April 5, U.S. gasoline inventories were 5 million barrels (-2% or -0.42 standard deviations) below the prior ten-year seasonal average.

Stocks had been as much as 7 million barrels (+3% or +0.75 standard deviations) above seasonal average in late January.

But a site-wide power failure stopped BP’s massive refinery at Whiting, Indiana, lasting for more than a month from the start of February and resulted in a sharp depletion of stocks.

Since the refinery restarted in March, the deficit has narrowed slightly, but inventories remain below normal for the time of year, putting upward pressure on prices.

EVEN HIGHER PRICES?

U.S. retail gasoline prices (including taxes) averaged $3.54 per gallon in March 2024, almost exactly in line with the average since the start of the century once inflation is taken into account.

Inflation-adjusted prices have risen from a recent low of $3.22 in January 2024 but are still well below the recent high of $5.42 in June 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Fund managers are betting heavily that gasoline prices will rise further over the remainder of the year.

From a purely positioning perspective, the large number of bullish long positions that must eventually be liquidated has itself created downside risk to prices.

From a fundamental perspective, however, low inventories, strong consumption, threat to Russia’s refineries, and elevated hurricane risk to U.S. refineries are all sources of upside potential.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 21:35

Trump Suggests Offering Aid To Ukraine In The Form Of A Loan

Trump Suggests Offering Aid To Ukraine In The Form Of A Loan

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Former President Donald Trump has suggested that he would support Republicans approving Ukraine aid in the form of a loan, but that Europe must “equalize” its efforts to help Ukraine in its war against Russia.

During a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), President Trump said they are “thinking about making it in the form of a loan instead of just a gift.”

“We keep handing out gifts of billions and billions of dollars, and we’ll take a look at it,” the former president said.

“But much more importantly to me is the fact that Europe has to step up, and they have to give money. They have to equalize. If they don’t equalize I’m very upset about it, because they’re affected much more than we are.”

President Trump has been skeptical of Washington’s support for Ukraine in its war against Russia and said that he would bring the fighting to an end within 24 hours if he were to return to the White House.

The former president has previously called on the U.S. government to stop sending money in the form of foreign aid to any country “unless it is done as a loan.”

Mr. Johnson, who was also present during the press conference, has delayed for months a House vote on legislation already passed by the Democratic-led Senate providing $60 billion in aid for Ukraine.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends a press conference during the "Ukraine Year 2024" forum in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 25, 2024. (Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images)

Ukraine Willing to Accept US Aid in Loan

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told a local broadcaster last week that his government would be open to accepting U.S. aid in the form of loan if that is the only option left.

“You know, a senator was here recently, and he asked me: would you agree to take the loan money? I said, ‘What are the options?’ He said, ‘Well, if, for example, they tell you that the money is a loan or you won’t get it.’ I said, ‘What’s the point of such an election if there is no choice?’

“Let’s be honest: we will agree to any option. I'll tell you more: if Ukraine was offered a package on credit today or free of charge in a year, we would say: only today. There is no choice here. Our only choice is to survive and win. We are trying to do this in different ways. This is about the loan. Important: the sooner the better,” he said.

But Mr. Zelenskyy said he remains optimistic in getting “a positive vote” from the U.S. Congress.

“Unfortunately, we are a bit hostage to this situation. Unfortunately, the issue of Ukraine, namely the issue of Russia’s war against Ukraine, has become a domestic political issue in the United States today. Although this is the security of the whole world,” he remarked.

Ukraine Aid Package in Progress

Mr. Johnson told Fox News on March 31 that legislation to provide additional aid for Ukraine is being drafted in the House and will be brought to the floor when members return from their current recess.

“When it comes to the supplemental, we’ve been working to build that consensus. We’ve been talking to all the members, especially now over the district work period. When we return after this work period, we’ll be moving a product, but it’s going to, I think, have some important innovations,” he said.

Mr. Johnson has been supportive of continued aid for Ukraine but has also stressed the importance of securing the United States’s own borders first.

When the Senate passed legislation that included funding for both Ukraine and immigration enforcement, he led the opposition in the House on the grounds that the bill heavily prioritized Ukraine and offered no significant border policy reforms.

As of yet, there has been no agreement reached on the crisis at the U.S.–Mexico border. While President Joe Biden and Democrats say additional funding is needed to stop the historic surge of illegal immigrants into the United States, Republicans hold that the president already possesses the funds and authority to fix the problem.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 21:00

The Hidden Cost Of Progressivism, Part I

The Hidden Cost Of Progressivism, Part I

Authored by David Parker via The Epoch Times,

With the U.S. Constitution, the Founding Fathers created a nation of maximum individual freedom, maximum individual responsibility, limited government, and classical liberalism. Having fled anti-democratic European aristocracy, privileged class structure, and limited opportunity, American colonists did not want government in their lives. The Founding Fathers believed that Adam Smith was correct when he said individuals independently pursuing their self-interest to survive naturally organize society. Without government planning, it was the invisible hand of nature.

In 1933, America flipped that vision. To progressives, freedom now meant freedom with government. President Franklin Roosevelt turned government from a neutral third party, whose sole purpose is to protect life, liberty, and property, to government as an active third party, whose sole purpose is to provide life, liberty, and property. This is the nation we have today, where all citizens (to some degree) are dependent on government.

That reversal comes with a cost: the hidden cost of progressivism.

Every individual or family earning $50,000 per year is, today, paying a hidden tax of at least $28,100 per year over and above federal and state income tax.

Examples:

  1. Government has so regulated the market for health care that the market no longer exists. American health insurance today is not insurance; it’s prepaid health care—that’s why it costs two to three times what it should, two to three times what it costs anywhere else in the world. With health insurance in the United States automatically paying for most procedures, citizens no longer bargain over price. To nothing else in life are they so indifferent. Citizens in New Jersey, for instance, are indifferent to the fact that the price of health insurance in Pennsylvania is three times less. In complete violation of interstate commerce, progressive federal law forbids citizens from purchasing health insurance across state lines. Before Medicare, the cost of health insurance was $200 per month (in 2022 dollars), $50 per month for a young person—the price of auto insurance, property insurance on a $1 million home, or life insurance. Today, it’s $600 per month, provided your employer contributes an additional $800 to $1,000. The employer doesn’t care; it’s a tax write-off. Eliminate government from health care, and the price of health insurance will drop by 66 percent. Ask your employer to give you what he’s paying on your behalf. It’s your money. $800 per month times 12 is $9,600 per year. Hidden tax one.

  2. Social Security takes 15 percent of your income. You pay 7.5 percent, and your employer pays 7.5 percent, but it’s money your employer would otherwise have given you. Fifteen percent, however, is more than is necessary. Properly invested, 10 percent is sufficient. That 5 percent differential on $50,000 is $2,500 per year. Hidden tax two. (That 10 percent of $50,000, $5,000, when invested at 5 percent annual interest compounded monthly, in 40 years is worth $658,194. In 50 years, $1,147,283.)

  3. In 1964, President Lyndon Johnson said unequivocally that there would be no increase in taxes for the War on Poverty. A gullible nation now knows that, to date, that “war” has cost $23 trillion; that the poverty rate, 15 percent in 1964, on average, remained 15 percent; and that today, the war is paid for by borrowing. Roughly $900 billion per year (15 percent of the federal budget) divided by 150 million taxpayers is $6,000 per person. Hidden tax three.

  4. Until 1890, schools were private. Parents who couldn’t afford to send their children were provided the means—from property taxes. Thank you, Thomas Jefferson. But then progressives amalgamated them into today’s government-administered unified school districts—except that once a huge enterprise becomes a government project, it’s open to rent-seeking and politicization. This allowed political pressure in the 1970s to force public schools to try to create equal outcomes for all students—which they found was impossible without lowering standards, which is why middle-class parents pulled their children and sent them to private schools at a cost of $20,000 to $40,000 per year per child. If just one child per family attends private school at $20,000 per year ($10,000 per parent), over and above the property taxes the family already pays (even if they are tenants), that’s hidden tax four.

Hidden Taxes Per Year

So if we add up the above hidden taxes, it looks like this: $9,600 plus $2,500 plus $6,000 plus $10,000 equals $28,100.

Actually, there’s much more. Any serious constraint on business causes businesses to raise prices, a hidden tax. Domestic farm subsidies and tariffs on foreign goods raise prices. A hidden tax.

Solution: Reverse all federal legislation since 1933.

Social Security, Medicare, everything—except legislation that reinforces civil rights and national defense. Remove government from the economy, and the federal income tax rate will drop to 15 percent.

Let citizens keep that $28,100 per year! Universal basic income.

In a Jeffersonian democracy, where no citizen is denied the vote, it’s understood that citizens can and do think for themselves.

We’re not living in Plato’s Republic, an island of progressivism, where the nation’s most capable, its aristocracy, are in power. Dictatorship. In Plato’s Republic, the masses didn’t vote.

Arguments for Doing Nothing

The wealthy do not object to high income taxes; they’re not paying! Let the middle class continue to pay!

Large corporations do not object to regulation and monitoring by government. They can afford the millions of dollars in legal fees to comply—Sarbanes-Oxley, Dodd-Frank—then buy up the smaller firms that cannot. Monopoly. Let them continue to do that! The corporations that survive create the efficient corporate state: Bismarck, Mussolini, Hitler, China. National socialism!

For U.S. prosperity, all that’s necessary is that the United States has less regulation than elsewhere in the world. That would give the United States an enormous competitive advantage. Let governments worldwide tax and regulate business, forcing them to increase prices, and prices in the United States will be lower. U.S. manufacturing and exports will rise.

Let the United States offer more social, political, and economic freedom than elsewhere in the world, and it will continue to attract the world’s most independent and entrepreneurial talent - what enabled the United States to go to the moon in 1969 (German scientists), what today keeps the United States at the forefront of high technology, information technology, and quantum computing (71 percent of those in Silicon Valley are foreign-born). With American public schools being the lowest achieving in the industrialized world, with foreign students outscoring American students on the SAT and enrolling in U.S. universities, let smart immigrants continue to arrive.

The U.S. has nothing to worry about...

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 19:50

The Exodus Continues: Blue Regions Still Bleeding As Residents Escape Democrat Policies

The Exodus Continues: Blue Regions Still Bleeding As Residents Escape Democrat Policies

Can Democrats take a hint?  The answer is obviously no, but with millions of people flooding out of Democrat controlled places and relocating to more conservative regions one might think they would finally get the message.

Blue cities and states across the US have been experiencing a mass exodus of legal residents since before the pandemic event; many of them business owners taking their money (and job opportunities) with them.  The hardest hit states in the country include New York, Illinois and California, with cities like NYC, LA, Chicago and San Francisco seeing some of the most aggressive population shift.  In states like California the standard operating procedure has been to lie about the situation, using the surge of illegal immigrants to hide population loss in the census.   

There are a multitude of reasons for the great American migration:  The pandemic lockdowns made many people realize Democrats are inclined towards authoritarian policies and they left because they wanted freedom. Sanctuary status is allowing illegals to flood into blue areas, straining welfare programs and inflating housing costs.  The bureaucracy of leftist cities creates a concrete barrier to success for most small to medium business owners, and even larger companies and chains are ready to exit because of high taxes and over-regulation.  Finally, soft prosecution laws in blue states and cities have led to a clear spike in criminal activity which Democrats are also trying to deny.

It's estimated by Zillow's chief economist that establishing a residency in California would require around $1 million or more in starting money.  The state has the second highest cost of living in the nation, as well as the worst reported job growth in the nation in 2023.  Property prices are exploding higher, but with fewer and fewer buyers.  This is probably why California has been dead last on the list of most desirable states to move to for the past few years running.   

No one wants to be left holding the bag in a state or city where it's becoming impossible to leave.  For people with the money, relocation is a no-brainer.  

Another factor which is going mostly ignored by the establishment media is the rising trend of political disassociation.  The left has become so extreme in their views and behavior that the rest of the populace doesn't want to deal with them anymore.  Conservatives and independents are rushing for the exits to get as far away from these people as possible.

Contrary to popular fears among conservatives, the exodus has not pushed voting numbers towards progressive politicians or policies in the slightest.  In fact, Idaho has reported a considerable influx of conservative voters moving in after escaping blue states.  Similar reports are coming out of Texas and Florida.  There is no blue tide.  There is no California takeover - Red states are only turning more red.

Are progressives moving out of the cities, too?  Yes, to the suburbs and to outlying towns within driving distances of their original homes.  It's getting to the point where even leftists are admitting their own cities are not livable. The latest U-Haul data helps to explain the developments more clearly.

The exodus is now having visible effects on Democrat havens that can no longer be hidden.  Crime activity is so suffocating that many corporate chains are leaving, only to be threatened by city politicians with legal reprisals if they shut down.  If Democrats can't trick people into staying, they plan to force people to stay.     

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 19:15

Afghan Migrant On Terror List Released By Immigration Judge, Free To Roam USA

Afghan Migrant On Terror List Released By Immigration Judge, Free To Roam USA

An Afghan man and illegal immigrant who's on the FBI terror watchlist has been twice apprehended in the United States only to be released by a federal apparatus that continues to make a mockery of the very notion of "border security."  

Mohammad Kharwin, 48, was first arrested in Southern California in March 2023 after he'd illegally entered the United States from Mexico, according to NBC News, which was first to report the story. Border police suspected Kharwin was on the watchlist, because one unspecified attribute matched his entry on the list.

Masses of migrants camped in San Ysidro, California in 2023. Mohammed Kharwin was initially processed in the same vicinity. (7SanDiego)

However, for lack of additional corroborating data, he was processed and released, just like hordes of other illegal migrants before and since. He was instructed to periodically call an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer, but was free to apply for asylum and permission to work in the United States. He was also free to board domestic flights.  

This February, the FBI alerted ICE that they suspected Kharwin had links to a terrorist group and could pose a danger. That prompted ICE to track him down in San Antonio and arrest him on Feb. 28. 

Buckle in, because the story's about to get a lot worse. On March 28, Kharwin had an immigration hearing in Pearsall, Texas. The ICE prosecutors told the judge that Kharwin was a flight risk who should be detained without bond. However, they didn't tell the judge that he posed a potential risk to national security, and declined to show the judge information revealing why the FBI is concerned about him. 

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas was impeached by the House in February over his border performance (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Kept in the dark, the unnamed immigration judge ordered that Kharwin be released, but demanded an above-average-for-illegal-immigrants $12,000 bond. Kharwin immediately paid it and off he went, without any court-mandated restrictions on his travel within the country. He is supposed to appear for another hearing next spring. ICE hasn't appealed the ruling and, in NBC's reporting, there's no indication authorities are seeking him. 

According to the watchlist, the FBI believes Kharwin is a member of an Afghanistan group called Hezb-e-Islami (HIG), which has been designated by the United States as a terror group. 

According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, HIG is a “virulently anti-Western insurgent group” that sought to overturn the Western-backed Afghan government before its fall in 2021. 

HIG was responsible for attacks in Afghanistan that killed at least nine American soldiers and civilians between 2013 and 2015. The group is not seen as a top threat in terms of attacks inside the U.S.

Believe it or not, there are some 1.8 million names on the FBI's terror watchlist, and, as has been observed in the colossal rolling clusterf**k at Guantanamo Bay, the US government sometimes misidentifies people -- with positively godawful results. That said, the FBI could well be correct about Kharwin, and the handling of his March immigration hearing is certainly a cause for concern. 

Migrants near Eagle Pass, Texas await processing in December 2023 (John Moore/Getty Images via Fox10)

There have been similar cases where watchlisted men have been processed and released. In February, we detailed the case of a man who allegedly is/was a member of the Somali terror group al-Shabaab. He was also caught in southern California in March 2023 and set free to roam the country.  

In 2023 the Border Patrol caught 172 suspects from the terror watchlist attempting to enter the US illegally. According to former DHS officials, the constant deluge of illegal migrants through the southern border has made it easier for bad actors to enter the country. According to NBC's analysis of government data, about 0.02% of encountered illegal immigrants are on the terror watchlist -- making them needles in a Biden-enlarged haystack. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 18:05

USAF Conducts B-52 Bomber Exercise With 'Unarmed' Nuclear Cruise Missiles

USAF Conducts B-52 Bomber Exercise With 'Unarmed' Nuclear Cruise Missiles

Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists, posted on X that the United States Air Force conducted a "nuclear exercise with B-52 bombers" at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota this past week. This exercise coincides with a week of soaring tensions in the Middle East

Airmen from the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot AFB and the 2nd Bomb Wing at Barksdale AFB (located in Louisiana) participated in Exercise Prairie Vigilance at the air base in North Dakota between April 6 and 12. 

Prairie Vigilance is considered a "routine training mission that enhances the safety, security, and reliability of the bomber leg of the US nuclear triad," the service wrote in a press release published on the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service website. 

The service continued, "Exercises like Prairie Vigilance enable crews to maintain a high state of readiness and proficiency, while validating the always-ready, global strike capability," adding, "Team Minot Airmen focus on the safe and secure handling of assets comprising the nuclear triad in order to stay proficient in a variety of key operational skills." 

Kristensen said this is the third such exercise in six months. He posted images of unarmed nuclear AGM-86B cruise missiles being rolled out to the staging area to be loaded on at least one Boeing B-52 Stratofortress

The exercise with unarmed nuclear cruise missiles comes as the White House warned on Friday about the Iranians launching an imminent attack on Israel. 

Late Friday evening, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark told CNBC that a "direct strike on Israel" by the Iranians could force the Israeli Air Force to target "nuclear assets" in the country. 

Meanwhile, the F-35A Lightning II stealth jet became operationally certified to be equipped with B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs last month. Impeccable timing... 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 16:55

How Did Satoshi Think Of Bitcoin?

How Did Satoshi Think Of Bitcoin?

Authored by Unchained CSO Dhruv Bansal via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Bitcoin is often compared to the internet in the 1990s, but I believe the better analogy is to the telegraph in the 1840s.

The telegraph was the first technology to transmit encoded data at near-light speed over long distances. It marked the birth of the telecommunications industry. The internet, though it is bigger in scale, richer in content, and manyto-many instead of one-to-one, is fundamentally still a telecommunications technology.

Both the telegraph and the internet rely upon business models in which companies deploy capital to build a physical network and then charge users to send messages through this network. AT&T’s network has historically transmitted telegrams, telephone calls, TCP/IP packets, text messages, and now TikToks.

The transformation of society through telecom has led to greater freedoms but also greater centralization. The internet has increased the reach of millions of content creators and small businesses, but has also strengthened the grasp of companies, governments and other institutions well-positioned enough to monitor and manipulate online activity.

But bitcoin is not the end of any transformation - it’s the beginning of one. Like telecommunications, bitcoin will change both human society and daily life. Predicting the full scope of this change today is akin to imagining the internet while living in the era of the telegraph.

This series attempts to imagine this future by starting with the past. This initial article traces the history of digital currencies before bitcoin. Only by understanding where prior projects fell short can we perceive what makes bitcoin succeed—and how it suggests a methodology for building the decentralized systems of the future.

OUTLINE

I. Decentralized systems are markets

II. Decentralized markets require decentralized goods

III. How can decentralized systems price computations?

IV. Satoshi’s monetary policy goals led to bitcoin

V. Conclusion

A central claim of this article is that bitcoin can be thought of as an adaptation of Dai’s b-money project that eliminates the freedom to create money. Just weeks after this article was originally published, new emails surfaced in which Satoshi claimed to be unfamiliar with b-money, yet admitted that bitcoin starts “from exactly that point.” In light of this new evidence, we believe this central claim, while not historically accurate, is still a meaningful and helpful way to think about the origin of bitcoin. 

Unchained is the Official Collaborative Custody Partner of Bitcoin Magazine. Click here to learn more about Unchained's bitcoin financial services and receive exclusive discounts on Unchained vault, Signature and IRA.

HOW DID SATOSHI THINK OF BITCOIN?

Satoshi was brilliant, but bitcoin didn’t come out of nowhere.

Bitcoin iterated on existing work in cryptography, distributed systems, economics, and political philosophy. The concept of proof-of-work existed long before its use in money and prior cypherpunks such as Nick Szabo, Wei Dai, & Hal Finney anticipated and influenced the design of bitcoin with projects such as bit gold, b-money, and RPOW. Consider that, by 2008, when Satoshi wrote the bitcoin white paper,[2] many of the ideas important to bitcoin had already been proposed and/or implemented:

  • Digital currencies should be P2P networks

  • Proof-of-work is the basis of money creation

  • Money is created through an auction

  • Public key cryptography is used to define ownership & transfer of coins

  • Transactions are batched into blocks

  • Blocks are chained together through proof-of-work

  • All blocks are stored by all participants

Bitcoin leverages all these concepts, but Satoshi didn’t originate any of them. To better understand Satoshi’s contribution, we should determine which principles of bitcoin are missing from the list.

Some obvious candidates are the finite supply of bitcoin, Nakamoto consensus, and the difficulty adjustment algorithm. But what led Satoshi to these ideas in the first place?

This article explores the history of digital currencies and makes the case that Satoshi’s focus on sound monetary policy is what led bitcoin to surmount challenges that defeated prior projects such as bit gold and b-money.

I. DECENTRALIZED SYSTEMS ARE MARKETS 

Bitcoin is often described as a decentralized or distributed system. Unfortunately, the words “decentralized” and “distributed” are frequently confused. When applied to digital systems, both terms refer to ways a monolithic application can be decomposed into a network of communicating pieces.

For our purposes, the major difference between decentralized and distributed systems is not the topology of their network diagrams, but the way they enforce rules. We take some time in the following section to compare distributed and decentralized systems and motivate the idea that robust decentralized systems are markets.

DISTRIBUTED SYSTEMS RELY UPON CENTRAL AUTHORITIES

In this work, we take “distributed” to mean any system that has been broken up into many parts (often referred to as “nodes”) which must communicate, typically over a network.

Software engineers have grown adept at building globally distributed systems. The internet is composed of distributed systems collectively containing billions of nodes. We each have a node in our pocket that both participates in and relies upon these systems.

But almost all the distributed systems we use today are governed by some central authority, typically a system administrator, company, or government that is mutually trusted by all nodes in the system.

Central authorities ensure all nodes adhere to the system s rules and remove, repair, or punish nodes that fail to do so. They are trusted to provide coordination, resolve conflicts, and allocate shared resources. Over time, central authorities manage changes to the system, upgrading it or adding features, and ensuring that participating nodes comply with the changes.

The benefits a distributed system gains from relying upon a central authority come with costs. While the system is robust against failures of its nodes, a failure of its central authority may cause it to stop functioning overall. The ability for the central authority to unilaterally make decisions means that subverting or eliminating the central authority is sufficient to control or destroy the entire system.

Despite these trade-offs, if there is a requirement that a single party or coalition must retain central authority, or if the participants within the system are content with relying upon a central authority, then a traditional distributed system is the best solution. No blockchain, token, or similar decentralized dressing is required.

In particular, the case of a VC- or government-backed cryptocurrency, with requirements that a single party can monitor or restrict payments and freeze accounts, is the perfect use case for a traditional distributed system.

DECENTRALIZED SYSTEMS HAVE NO CENTRAL AUTHORITIES 

We take “decentralized” to have a stronger meaning than “distributed”: decentralized systems are a subset of distributed systems that lack any central authority. A close synonym for “decentralized” is “peer-to-peer” (P2P). 

Removing central authority confers several advantages. Decentralized systems:

  • Grow quickly because they lack barriers to entry—anyone can grow the system by simply running a new node, and there is no requirement for registration or approval from the central authority.

  • Are robust because there is no central authority whose failure can compromise the functioning of the system. All nodes are the same, so failures are local and the network routes around damage.

  • Are difficult to capture, regulate, tax, or surveil because they lack centralized points of control for governments to subvert.

These strengths are why Satoshi chose a decentralized, peer-to-peer design for bitcoin:

"Governments are good at cutting off the heads of… centrally controlled networks like Napster, but pure P2P networks like Gnutella and Tor seem to be holding their own." - Nakamoto, 2008

But these strengths come with corresponding weaknesses. Decentralized systems can be less efficient as each node must additionally bear responsibilities for coordination previously assumed by the central authority.

Decentralized systems are also plagued by scammy, adversarial behavior. Despite Satoshi’s nod to Gnutella, anyone who’s used a P2P file sharing program to download a file that turned out to be something gross or malicious understands the reasons that P2P file sharing never became the mainstream model for data transfer online.

Satoshi didn’t name it explicitly, but email is another decentralized system that has evaded government controls. And email is similarly notorious for spam.

DECENTRALIZED SYSTEMS ARE GOVERNED THROUGH INCENTIVES

The root problem, in all of these cases, is that adversarial behavior (seeding bad files, sending spam emails) is not punished, and cooperative behavior (seeding good files, only sending useful emails) is not rewarded. Decentralized systems that rely upon their participants to be good actors fail to scale because they cannot prevent bad actors from also participating.

Without imposing a central authority, the only way to solve this problem is to use economic incentives. Good actors, by definition, play by the rules because they’re inherently motivated to do so. Bad actors are, by definition, selfish and adversarial, but proper economic incentives can redirect their bad behavior towards the common good. Decentralized systems that scale do so by ensuring that cooperative behavior is profitable and adversarial behavior is costly.

The best way to implement robust decentralized services is to create markets where all actors, both good and bad, are paid to provide that service. The lack of barriers to entry for buyers and sellers in a decentralized market encourages scale and efficiency. If the market’s protocols can protect participants from fraud, theft, and abuse, then bad actors will find it more profitable to either play by the rules or go attack a different system.

II. DECENTRALIZED MARKETS REQUIRE DECENTRALIZED GOODS 

But markets are complex. They must provide buyers and sellers the ability to post bids & asks as well as discover, match and settle orders. They must be fair, provide strong consistency, and maintain availability despite periods of volatility.

Global markets today are extremely capable and sophisticated, but using traditional goods and payment networks to implement incentives in a decentralized market is a nonstarter. Any coupling between a decentralized system and fiat money, traditional assets, or physical commodities would reintroduce dependencies on the central authorities that control payment processors, banks, & exchanges.

Decentralized systems cannot transfer cash, look up the balance of a brokerage account, or determine the ownership of property. Traditional goods are completely illegible from within a decentralized system. The inverse is not true—traditional systems can interact with bitcoin as easily as any other actor (once they decide they want to). The boundary between traditional and decentralized systems is not an impassable wall, but a semi-permeable membrane.

This means that decentralized systems cannot execute payments denominated in any traditional good. They cannot even determine the balances of fiat-dominated accounts or the ownership of real estate or physical goods. The entire traditional economy is completely illegible from within decentralized systems.

Creating decentralized markets requires trading new kinds of decentralized goods which are legible and transferable within decentralized systems.

COMPUTATION IS THE FIRST DECENTRALIZED GOOD

The first example of a “decentralized good” is a special class of computations first proposed in 1993 by Cynthia Dwork and Moni Naor.[3]

Because of deep connections between mathematics, physics, and computer science, these computations cost real-world energy and hardware resources—they cannot be faked. Since real-world resources are scarce, these computations are also scarce.

The input for these computations can be any kind of data. The resulting output is a digital “proof” that the computations were performed on the given input data. Proofs contain a given “difficulty” which is (statistical) evidence of a given amount of computational work. Most importantly, the relationship between the input data, the proof, and the original computational work performed can be independently verified without appeal to any central authority.

The idea of passing around some input data along with a digital proof as evidence of real-world computational work performed on that input is now called “proof-of-work”.[4] Proofs-of-work are, to use Nick Szabo’s phrase, “unforgeable costliness”. Because proofs-of-work are verifiable by anyone, they are economic resources that are legible to all participants in a decentralized system. Proofs-of-work turn computations on data into decentralized goods. Dwork & Naor proposed using computations to limit the abuse of a shared resource by forcing participants to provide proofsof-work with a certain minimum difficulty before they can access the resource:

"In this paper we suggest a computational approach to combatting the proliferation of electronic mail. More generally, we have designed an access control mechanism that can be used whenever it is desirable to restrain, but not prohibit, access to a resource." - Dwoak & Naor, 1993

In Dwork & Naor’s proposal, an email system administrator would set a minimum proof-of-work difficulty for delivering email. Users wanting to send email would need to perform a corresponding number of computations with that email as the input data. The resulting proof would be submitted to the server alongside any request to deliver the email.

Dwork & Naor referred to the difficulty of a proofof-work as a “pricing function” because, by adjusting the difficulty, a “pricing authority” could ensure that the shared resource remained cheap to use for honest, average users but expensive for users seeking to exploit it. In the email delivery market, server administrators are the pricing authorities; they must choose a “price” for email delivery which is low enough for normal usage but too high for spam.

Though Dwork & Naor framed proofs-of-work as an economic disincentive to combat resource abuse, the nomenclature “pricing function” and “pricing authority” supports a different, marketbased interpretation: users are purchasing access to a resource in exchange for computations at a price set by the resource’s controller.

In this interpretation, an email delivery network is really a decentralized market trading email delivery for computations. The minimum difficulty of a proof-of-work is the asking price for email delivery denominated in the currency of computations.

CURRENCY IS THE SECOND DECENTRALIZED GOOD 

But computations aren’t a good currency.

The proofs used to “trade” computations are only valid for the input used in those computations. This unbreakable lilnk between a specific proof and a specific input means that the proof-of-work for one input can’t be reused for a different input.

Proof-of-work was originally proposed as an access control mechanism for limiting spam emails. Users would be expected to provide proofs-of-work alongside any emails they wanted to send. This mechanism can also be thought of as a market where users are purchasing email deliveries with computations at a price chosen by the email service provider.

This constraint is useful – it can be used to prevent the work done by one buyer in the market from being re-spent by another. For example, HashCash, the first real implementation of the market for email delivery, included metadata such as the current timestamp and the sender’s email address in the input data to its proof-of-work computations. Proofs produced by a given user for a given email can’t be respent for sending a different email.

But this also means that proof-of-work computations are bespoke goods. They aren’t fungible, they can’t be re-spent,[5] and they don’t solve the coincidence-of-wants problem. These missing monetary properties prevent computations from being currency. Despite the name, there is no incentive for an email delivery provider to want to accumulate HashCash, as there would be for actual cash.

Adam Back, inventor of HashCash, understood these problems:

"hashcash is not directly transferable because to make it distributed, each service provider accepts payment only in cash created for them. You could perhaps setup a digicash style mint (with chaumian ecash) and have the bank only mint cash on receipt of hash collisions addressed to it. However this means you've got to trust the bank not to mint unlimited amounts of money for it's own use." - Adam Back, 1997

We don’t want to exchange bespoke computations for every individual good or service sold in a decentralized economy. We want a general purpose digital currency that can directly be used to coordinate exchanges of value in any market.

Building a functioning digital currency while remaining decentralized is a significant challenge. A currency requires fungible units of equal value that can be transferred among users. This requires issuance models, cryptographic definitions of ownership and transfer, a discovery and settlement process for transactions, and a historical ledger. None of this infrastructure is required when proof-of-work is thought of as a mere “access control mechanism”.

Moreover, decentralized systems are markets, so all these basic functions of a currency must somehow be provided through paying service providers…in the units of the currency that’s being created!

Like compiling the first compiler, a black start of the electrical grid, or the evolution of life itself, the creators of digital currencies were confronted with a bootstrapping problem: how to define the economic incentives that underlie a functioning currency without having a functioning currency in which to denominate or pay those incentives.

Computations and currency are the first and second goods in decentralized markets. Proof-of-work alone allows for the exchange of computations but a functioning currency requires more infrastructure. It took 15 years for the cypherpunk community to develop that infrastructure.

THE FIRST DECENTRALIZED MARKET MUST TRADE COMPUTATIONS FOR CURRENCY

Progress on this bootstrapping problem comes from properly framing its constraints.

Decentralized systems must be markets. Markets consist of buyers and sellers exchanging goods. The decentralized market for a digital currency only has two goods that are legible within it:

  1. Computations through proof-of-work

  2. Units of the currency we’re trying to build

The only market trade possible must therefore be between these two goods. Computations must be sold for units of currency orF equivalentlyF units of currency must be sold for computations. Stating this is easy—the hard part is structuring this market so that simply exchanging currency for computation bootstraps all the capabilities of the currency itself!

The entire history of digital currencies culminating in Satoshi’s 2008 white paperF was a series of increasingly sophisticated attempts at structuring this market. The following section reviews projects such as Nick Szabo’s bit gold and Wei Dai’s b-money. Understanding how these projects structured their marketsF and why they failed will help us frame why Satoshi and bitcoin succeeded.

III. HOW CAN DECENTRALIZED SYSTEMS PRICE COMPUTATIONS?

A major function of markets is price discovery. A market trading computations for currency must therefore discover the price of computation itself, as denominated in units of that currency.

We don’t typically assign monetary value to computations. We typically value the capacity to perform computations because we value the output of computations, not the computations themselves. If the same output can be performed more efficiently, with fewer computations, that is usually called “progress”.

Proofs-of-work represent specific computations whose only output is proof that they were performed. Producing the same proof by performing fewer computations and less work wouldn’t be progress—it would be a bug. The computations associated with proofs-of-work are thus a strange and novel good to attempt to value.

When proofs-of-work are thought of as disincentives against resource abuse, it is not necessary to value them precisely or consistently. All that matters is that the email service provider sets difficulties low enough to be unnoticeable for legitimate users yet high enough to be prohibitive for spammers. There is thus a broad range of acceptable “prices” and each participant acts as their own pricing authority, applying a local pricing function.

But units of a currency are meant to be fungible, each having the same value. Due to changes in technology over time, two units of currency created with the same proof-of-work difficulty— as measured by the number of corresponding computations—may have radically different realworld costs of production, as measured by the time, energy, and/or capital to perform those computations . When computations are sold for currency, and the underlying cost of production is variable, how can the market ensure a consistent price?

Nick Szabo clearly identified this pricing problem when describing bit gold:

"The main problem…is that proof of work schemes depend on computer architecture, not just an abstract mathematics based on an abstract "compute cycle." …Thus, it might be possible to be a very low cost producer (by several orders of magnitude) and swamp the market with bit gold." - Szabo, 2005

A decentralized currency created through proof-of-work will experience supply gluts and crashes as the supply of computations changes over time. To accommodate this volatility, the network must learn to dynamically price computations.

Early digital currencies attempted to price computations by attempting to collectively measure the “cost of computing”. Wei Dai, for example, proposes the following hand-wavy solution in b-money:

'The number of monetary units created is equal to the cost of the computing effort in terms of a standard basket of commodities. For example if a problem takes 100 hours to solve on the computer that solves it most economically, and it takes 3 standard baskets to purchase 100 hours of computing time on that computer on the open market, then upon the broadcast of the solution to that problem everyone credits the broadcaster's account by 3 units." - Dai, 1998

Unfortunately, Dai does not explain how users in a supposedly decentralized system are supposed to agree upon the definition of a “standard basket”, which computer solves a given problem “most economically”, or the cost of computation on the “open market”. Achieving consensus among all users about a time-varying shared dataset is the essential problem of decentralized systems!

To be fair to Dai, he realized this:

"One of the more problematic parts in the b-money protocol is money creation. This part of the protocol requires that all [users] decide and agree on the cost of particular computations. Unfortunately because computing technology tends to advance rapidly and not always publicly, this information may be unavailable, inaccurate, or outdated, all of which would cause serious problems for the protocol." - Dai, 1998

Dai would go on to propose a more sophisticated auction-based pricing mechanism which Satoshi would later say was the starting point for his ideas. We will return to this auction scheme below, but first let’s turn to bit gold, and consider Szabo’s insights into the problem.

USE EXTERNAL MARKETS

Szabo claims that proofs-of-work should be “securely timestamped”:

"The proof of work is securely timestamped. This should work in a distributed fashion, with several different timestamp services so that no particular timestamp service need be substantially relied on." - Szabo, 2005

Szabo links to a page of resources on secure timestamping protocols but does not describe any specific algorithm for secure timestamping. The phrases “securely” and “distributed fashion” are carrying a lot of weight here, hand-waving through the complexities of relying upon one (or many) “outside the system” services for timestamping.[6]

The time a unit of digital currency was created is important because it links the computations performed to real-world production cost.

Regardless of implementation fuzziness, Szabo was right—the time a proof-of-work was created is an important factor in pricing it because it is related to the cost of computation:

"…However, since bit gold is timestamped, the time created as well as the mathematical difficulty of the work can be automatically proven. From this, it can usually be inferred what the cost of producing during that time period was…" - Szabo, 2005

"Inferring” the cost of production is important because bit gold has no mechanism to limit the creation of money. Anyone can create bit gold by performing the appropriate computations. Without the ability to regulate issuance, bit gold is akin to a collectible:

"…Unlike fungible atoms of gold, but as with collector s items, a large supply during a given time period will drive down the value of those particular items. In this respect bit gold acts more like collector s items than like gold…" - Szabo, 2005

Bit gold requires an additional, external process to create fungible units of currency:

"…[B]it gold will not be fungible based on a simple function of, for example, the length of the string. Instead, to create fungible units dealers will have to combine different-valued pieces of bit gold into larger units of approximately equal value. This is analogous to what many commodity dealers do today to make commodity markets possible. Trust is still distributed because the estimated values of such bundles can be independently verified by many other parties in a largely or entirely automated fashion." - Szabo, 2005

To paraphrase Szabo, “to assay the value of… bit gold, a dealer checks and verifies the difficulty, the input, and the timestamp”. The dealers defining “larger units of approximately equal value” are providing a similar pricing function as Dai’s “standard basket of commodities”. Fungible units are not created in bit gold when proofs-ofwork are produced, only later when those proofs are combined into larger “units of approximately equal value” by dealers in markets outside the network.

To his credit, Szabo recognizes this flaw:

"…The potential for initially hidden supply gluts due to hidden innovations in machine architecture is a potential flaw in bit gold, or at least an imperfection which the initial auctions and ex post exchanges of bit gold will have to address." - Szabo, 2005

Again, despite not having arrived at (what we now know as) the solution, Szabo was pointing us at it: because the cost of computation changes over time, the network must respond to changes in the supply of computation by adjusting the price of money.

USE INTERNAL MARKETS

Szabo’s dealers would have been an external market that defined the price of (bundles of) bit gold after its creation. Is it possible to implement this market within the system instead of outside it?

Let’s return to Wei Dai and b-money. As mentioned earlier, Dai proposed an alternative auction-based model for the creation of bmoney. Satoshi’s design for bitcoin improves directly on bmoney’s auction model[7]:

"So I propose an alternative money creation subprotocol, in which [users]… instead decide and agree on the amount of b-money to be created each period, with the cost of creating that money determined by an auction. Each money creation period is divided up into four phases, as follows: 

Planning. The [users] compute and negotiate with each other to determine an optimal increase in the money supply for the next period. Whether or not the [network] can reach a consensus, they each broadcast their money creation quota and any macroeconomic calculations done to support the figures.

Bidding. Anyone who wants to create b-money broadcasts a bid in the form of where x is the amount of b-money he wants to create, and y is an unsolved problem from a predetermined problem class. Each problem in this class should have a nominal cost (in MIPS-years say) which is publicly agreed on.

Computation. After seeing the bids, the ones who placed bids in the bidding phase may now solve the problems in their bids and broadcast the solutions. Money creation.

Money creation. Each [user] accepts the highest bids (among those who actually broadcasted solutions) in terms of nominal cost per unit of bmoney created and credits the bidders accounts accordingly." Dai, 1998

B-money makes significant strides towards the correct market structure for a digital currency. It attempts to eliminate Szabo’s external dealers and allow users to engage in price discovery by directly bidding against each other.

But implementing Dai’s proposal as written would be challenging:

  • In the “Planning” phase, users bear the burden of negotiating the “optimal increase in the money supply for the next period”. How “optimal” should be defined, how users should negotiate with each other, and how the results of such negotiations are shared is not described.

  • Regardless of what was planned, the “Bidding” phase allows anyone to submit a “bid” to create b-money. The bids include both an amount of b-money to be created as well as a corresponding amount of proofof-work so each bid is a price, the number of computations for which a given bidder is willing to perform in order to buy a given amount of b-money.

  • Once bids are submitted, the “computation” phase consists of bidders performing the proof-of-work they bid and broadcasting solutions. No mechanisms for matching bidders to solutions is provided. More problematically, it’s not clear how users should know that all bids have been submitted – when does the “Bidding” phase end and the “computation” phase begin?

  • These problems recur in the “Money ]reation” phase. Because of the nature of proof-of-work, users can verify the proofs they receive in solutions are real. But how can users collectively agree on the set of “highest bids”? What if different users pick different such sets, either due to preference or network latency?

Decentralized systems struggle to track data and make choices consistently, yet b-money requires tracking bids from many users and making consensus choices among them. This complexity prevented b-money from ever being implemented.

The root of this complexity is Dai’s belief that the “optimal” rate at which b-money is created should fluctuate over time based on the “macroeconomic calculations” of its users. Like bit gold, b-money has no mechanism to limit the creation of money. Anyone can create units of b-money by broadcasting a bid and then doing the corresponding proof-of-work. 

Both Szabo and Dai proposed using a market exchanging digital currency for computations yet neither bit gold nor b-money defined a monetary policy to regulate the supply of currency within this market.

Visit Unchained.BitcoinMagazine.com to access educational content focused on collaborative custody and financial services as well as tools to upgrade your bitcoin security.

IV. SATOSHI’S MONETARY POLICY GOALS LED TO BITCOIN

In contrast, a sound monetary policy was one of Satoshi’s primary goals for the bitcoin project. In the very first mailing list post where bitcoin was announced, Satoshi wrote:

"The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust." - Satoshi, 2009

Satoshi would go on to describe other problems with fiat currencies such as risky fractional reserve banking, a lack of privacy, rampant theft & fraud, and the inability to make micropayments. But Satoshi started with the issue of debasement by central banks—with a concern about monetary policy. 

Satoshi wanted bitcoin to ultimately reach a finite circulating supply that cannot be diluted over time. The “optimal” rate of bitcoin creation, for Satoshi, should thus eventually be zero. 

This monetary policy goal, more than any other characteristic they personally (or collectively!) possessed, was the reason Satoshi “discovered” bitcoin, the blockchain, Nakamoto consensus, etc. —and not someone else. It’s the short answer to the question posed in the title of this article: Satoshi thought of bitcoin because they were focused on creating a digital currency with a finite supply.

A finite supply of bitcoin is not only a monetary policy goal or a meme for bitcoiners to rally around. It’s the essential technical simplification that allowed Satoshi to build a functional digital currency while Dai’s b-money remained just a fascinating web post. 

Bitcoin is b-money with an additional requirement of a predetermined monetary policy. Like many technical simplifications, constraining monetary policy enables progress by reducing scope. Let’s see how each of the phases of b-money creation is simplified by imposing this constraint.

ALL 21M BITCOIN ALREADY EXIST

In b-money, each “money creation period” included a “Planning” phase, in which users were expected to share their “macroeconomic calculations” justifying the amount of b-money they wanted to create at that time. Satoshi’s monetary policy goals of a finite supply and zero tail emission were incompatible with the freedom granted by b-money to individual users to create money. The first step on the journey from bmoney to bitcoin was therefore to eliminate this freedom. Individual bitcoin users cannot create bitcoin. Only the bitcoin network can create bitcoin, and it did so exactly once, in 2009 when Satoshi launched the bitcoin project.

Satoshi was able to replace the recurring “Planning” phases of b-money into a single, predetermined schedule on which the 21M bitcoin created in 2009 would be released into circulation. Users voluntarily endorse Satoshi’s monetary policy by downloading and running the Bitcoin Core software in which this monetary policy is hard-coded. 

This changes the semantics of bitcoin’s market for computations. The bitcoin being paid to miners is not newly issued; it’s newly released into circulation from an existing supply. 

This framing is crucially different from the naive claim that “bitcoin miners create bitcoin”. Bitcoin miners are not creating bitcoin, they’re buying it. Bitcoin isn’t valuable because “bitcoin are made from energy”—bitcoin’s value is demonstrated by being sold for energy. 

Let’s repeat it one more time: bitcoin isn’t created through proof-of-work, bitcoin is created through consensus.

Satoshi’s design eliminates the requirement for ongoing “Planning” phases from b-money by doing all the planning up front. This allowed Satoshi to hard-code a sound monetary policy but also simplified the implementation of bitcoin.

BITCOIN IS PRICED THROUGH CONSENSUS

This freedom granted to users to create money results in a corresponding burden for the bmoney network. During the “Bidding” phase the b-money network must collect and share money creation “bids” from many different users. 

Eliminating the freedom to create money relieves the bitcoin network of this burden. Since all 21M bitcoin already exist, the network doesn’t need to collect bids from users to create money, it merely has to sell bitcoin on Satoshi’s predetermined schedule. 

The bitcoin network thus offers a consensus asking price for the bitcoin it is selling in each block. This single price is calculated by each node independently using its copy of the blockchain. If nodes have consensus on the same blockchain (a point we will return to later) they will all offer an identical asking price at each block.[8]

The first half of the consensus price calculation determines how many bitcoin to sell. This is fixed by Satoshi’s predetermined release schedule. All bitcoin nodes in the network calculate the same amount for a given block:

The second half of the consensus asking price is the number of computations the current subsidy is being sold for. Again, all bitcoin nodes in the network calculate the same value (we will revisit this difficulty calculation in the next section):

Together, the network subsidy and difficulty define the current asking of bitcoin as denominated in computations. Because the blockchain is in consensus, this price is a consensus price.

Users in b-money also were presumed to have a consensus “blockchain” containing the history of all transactions. But Dai never thought of the simple solution of a single consensus asking price for the creation of new b-money, determined solely by the data in that blockchain.

Instead, Dai assumed that money creation must go on forever. Individual users would therefore need to be empowered to affect monetary policy – just as in fiat currencies. This perceived requirement led Dai to design a bidding system which prevented b-money from being implemented.

This added complexity was removed by Satoshi’s requirement of a predetermined monetary policy.

TIME CLOSES ALL SPREADS

In the “Computation” phase of b-money, individual users would perform the computations they’d committed to in their prior bids. In bitcoin, the entire network is the seller – but who is the buyer?

In the email delivery market, the buyers were individuals wanting to send emails. The pricing authority, the email service provider, would set a price that was considered cheap for individuals but expensive for spammers. But if the number of legitimate users increased, the price could still remain the same because the computing power of individual users would have remained the same. 

In b-money, each user who contributed a bid for money creation was supposed to subsequently perform the corresponding number of computations themselves. Each user was acting as their own pricing authority based on their knowledge of their own computing capabilities. 

The bitcoin network offers a single asking price in computations for the current bitcoin subsidy. But no individual miner who finds a block has performed this number of computations.[9] The individual miner’s winning block is proof that all miners collectively performed the required number of computations. The buyer of bitcoin is thus the global bitcoin mining industry. 

Having arrived at a consensus asking price, the bitcoin network will not change that price until more blocks are produced. These blocks must contain proofs-of-work at the current asking price. The mining industry therefore has no choice if it wants to “execute a trade” but to pay the current asking price in computations. 

The only variable the mining industry can control is how long it will take to produce the next block. Just as the bitcoin network offers a single asking price, the mining industry thus offers a single bid—the time it takes to produce the next block meeting the network’s current asking price.

To compensate for increasing hardware speed and varying interest in running nodes over time, the proof-of-work difficulty is determined by a moving average targeting an average number of blocks per hour. If they're generated too fast, the difficulty increases. - Nakamoto, 2008

Satoshi is modestly describing the difficulty adjustment algorithm, often cited as one of the most original ideas in bitcoin’s implementation. This is true, but instead of focusing on the inventiveness of the solution, let’s instead focus on why solving the problem was so important to Satoshi in the first place. 

Projects such as bit gold and b-money didn’t need to constrain the rate in time of money creation because they didn’t have a fixed supply or a predetermined monetary policy. Periods of faster or slower money creation could be compensated for through other means, e.g. external dealers putting bit gold tokens into larger or smaller bundlers or b-money users changing their bids. 

But Satoshi’s monetary policy goals required bitcoin to have a predetermined rate at which bitcoin was to be released for circulation. Constraining the (statistical) rate at which blocks are produced over time is natural in bitcoin because the rate of block production is the rate at which the initial supply of bitcoin is being sold. Selling 21M bitcoin over 140 years is a different proposition than allowing it to be sold in 3 months. 

Moreover, bitcoin can actually implement this constraint because the blockchain is Szabo’s “secure timestamping protocol.” Satoshi describes bitcoin as first and foremost a “distributed timestamp server on a peer-to-peer basis,” and early implementations of the bitcoin source code use the world “timechain” rather than “blockchain” to describe the shared data structure that implements bitcoin’s proof-of-work market.[10]

Unlike bit gold or b-money, tokens in bitcoin do not experience supply gluts. The bitcoin network uses the difficulty adjustment to change the price of money in response to changes in the supply of computations.

Bitcoin’s difficulty readjustment algorithm leverages this capability. The consensus blockchain is used by participants to enumerate the historical bids made by the mining industry and readjust the difficulty in order to move closer to the target block time.

A STANDING ORDER CREATES CONSENSUS 

The chain of simplifications caused by demanding strong monetary policy extends to the “Money creation” phase of b-money. 

User-submitted bids in b-money suffer from “nothing at stake” problem. There is no mechanism to prevent users from submitting bids with a huge amount of b-money for very little work. This requires the network to both track which bids have been completed and only accept the “highest bids…in terms of nominal cost per unit of b-money created” in order to avoid such nuisance bids. Each b-money participant must track an entire order book worth of bids, match bids with their subsequent computations, and only settle such completed orders with the highest prices. 

This problem is an instance of the more general problem of consensus in decentralized systems, also known as the “Byzantine generals” or sometimes the “double-spend” problem in the context of digital currencies. Sharing an identical sequence of data among all participants is challenging inside an adversarial, decentralized network. Existing solutions to this problem – socalled “Byzantine-fault tolerant (BFT) consensus algorithms”—require previous coordination among participants or a supermajority (>67%) of participants to not behave adversarially.

Bitcoin doesn’t have to manage a large order book of bids because the bitcoin network offers a single consensus asking price. This means bitcoin nodes can accept the first (valid) block they see that meets the network’s current asking price— nuisance bids can easily be ignored and are a waste of a miner’s resources. 

Consensus pricing of computations allows the matching of buy/sell orders in bitcoin to be done eagerly, on a first-come, first-served basis. Unlike b-money, this eager order matching means that bitcoin’s market has no phases—it operates continuously, with a new consensus price being calculated after each individual order is matched (block is found). To avoid forks caused by network latency or adversarial behavior, nodes must also follow the heaviest chain rule. This greedy order settling rule ensures that only the highest bids are accepted by the network.

This combination eager-greedy algorithm, where nodes accept the first valid block they see and also follow the heaviest chain, is a novel BFT algorithm which rapidly converges on consensus about the sequence of blocks. Satoshi spends 25% of the bitcoin white paper demonstrating this claim.

We established in previous sections that bitcoin’s consensus asking price itself depends on the blockchain being in consensus. But it turns out that the existence of a single consensus asking price is what allows the market for computations to eagerly match orders, which is what leads to consensus in the first place! 

Moreover, this new “Nakamoto consensus” only requires 50% of participants to not be adversarial, a significant improvement on the prior state of the art. A cypherpunk like Satoshi made this theoretical computer science breakthrough, instead of a traditional academic or industry researcher, because of their narrow focus on implementing sound money, rather than a generic consensus algorithm for distributed computing.

IV. CONCLUSION

B-money was a powerful framework for building a digital currency but one that was incomplete because it lacked a monetary policy. Constraining b-money with a predetermined release schedule for bitcoins reduced scope and simplified implementation by eliminating the requirement to track and choose among user-submitted money creation bids. Preserving the temporal pace of Satoshi’s release schedule led to the difficulty adjustment algorithm and enabled Nakamoto consensus, widely recognized as one of the most innovative aspects of bitcoin’s implementation.

There is a lot more to bitcoin’s design than the aspects discussed so far. We have focused this article on the “primary” market within bitcoin, the market which distributes the initial bitcoin supply into circulation. 

The next article in this series will explore the market for bitcoin transaction settlement and how it relates to the market for distributing the bitcoin supply. This relationship will suggest a methodology for how to build future markets for decentralized services on top of bitcoin.

*  *  *

To continue your Bitcoin education, click here to download the full report: "How to Position for the Bitcoin Boom" by Tuur Demeester, prepared for Unchained

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 16:20

Russia Now Says It Expects 'Unconditional Capitulation Of Zelensky Regime' Before Peace

Russia Now Says It Expects 'Unconditional Capitulation Of Zelensky Regime' Before Peace

Ukrainian cities and especially the country's energy infrastructure have been getting pounded by intensified Russian missile and airstrikes over the past several days and weeks, leading to widespread power outages across the country.

Russia's defense ministry said Friday, "Russian troops delivered 48 precision strikes at Ukrainian energy and military-industrial sites, army and mercenaries’ deployment areas over the past week in the special military operation in Ukraine."

This included a Thursday morning attack which destroyed one of Ukraine’s largest power plants in the Kyiv region. "The goal of the strike were achieved. All the targets were destroyed," Moscow said. Ukrainian authorities are urging those with power to preserve and save their energy usage as much as possible.

Via TASS

President Putin this month said this is a necessary response to Ukraine's own cross-border attacks on Russia's energy sector, which has been devastating of late, resulting in a significant drop in Russia's gasoline production.

But lost in the global geopolitical headlines, which have been largely driven by the Israel-Gaza war and a showdown over the coming expected Iranian attack on Israel, was the shock statement by Russia's ambassador to the United Nations this week.

During Thursday's UN Security Council meeting, Vasily Nebenzya, the Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations, said that Moscow now expects the "unconditional capitulation" of the Zelensky government.

Ambassador Nebenzya told the body:

"This is how it will go down in history - as an inhuman and hateful regime of terrorists and Nazis who betrayed the interest of their people and sacrificed it for Western money and for Zelensky and his closest circle.

In these conditions, attempts by the head of the Kiev regime to promote his formula and convene summits in support of the Kiev regime cause only confusion.

Very soon the only topic for any international meetings on Ukraine will be the unconditional capitulation of the Kiev regime.

He emphasized in conclusion to these provocative remarks, "I advise you all to prepare for this in advance."

This firm statement appears part of Russia's continuing reaction to the planned Switzerland-hosted international Ukraine peace conference, which the Swiss government formally announced as set for June 15-16 at the lakeside Bürgenstock resort near Lucerne.

As we underscored previously, while over 100 nations are to be invited, the one country that can determine the final outcome of the war has not been invited: Russia. Its foreign minister Sergey Lavrov has characterized the conference as a "road to nowhere" and a sign that the West is not sincere about a willingness to pursue real peace negotiations.

"That this is a road to nowhere, to put it mildly, is obvious to any normal political observer. Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin once again made our position clear and understandable during the meeting with Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko," Lavrov explained.

Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia, left, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, AP file

And given that Russia's ambassador to the UN just declared that the end of the Ukraine war will be conditioned on nothing less than Ukraine's total surrender, the prospect for peace negotiations is now further away than ever. And all the while Europe is still scrambling to find more weapons to ship to Zelensky's military.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 15:45

"Nonsensical": Another Federal Judge Rejects All Of Hunter Biden's Claims For Dismissal

"Nonsensical": Another Federal Judge Rejects All Of Hunter Biden's Claims For Dismissal

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

While some legal analysts continue to boost Hunter Biden’s legal claims, the reviews in actual courts are far less glowing. Recently, we discussed a federal judge rejecting all eight motions of Hunter Biden to dismiss his tax charges in a stinging opinion citing a conspicuous lack of actual evidence to support their claims. Now, U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika has also rejected those claims in the gun case in Delaware, calling Hunter’s arguments “nonsensical.”

Legal experts like MSNBC’s Andew Weissmann have slammed the gun charges as “an abuse.”

Hunter Biden’s counsel has argued selective prosecution and a bar on charges (based on the defunct notorious plea deal) in both cases.

While these arguments were given great credence on some networks, they were stomped on by actual judges applying the law to the case.

Abby Lowell and Hunter’s defense team have insisted that he is the victim of selective prosecution, but Special Counsel David Weiss has eviscerated those claims.

In a recent filing, Weiss dismissed many of Hunter’s claims as “patently false” and noted that he virtually flaunted his violations and engaged in obvious efforts to evade taxes and hide his crimes.

Weiss further noted that other defendants did not write “a memoir in which they made countless statements proving their crimes and drawing further attention to their criminal conduct.”

It was a devastating take-down of Hunter’s claims, but it did not address the conspicuous omission of charges brought against Menendez, including FARA charges.

It also does not address the fact that the Justice Department not only allowed the statute of limitations to run on major crimes, but sought to finalize an obscene plea agreement with no jail time for Hunter. It only fell apart when a judge decided to ask a couple of cursory questions of the prosecutor, who admitted that he had never seen an agreement this generous for a defendant.

Weiss noted in his filing that they filed new charges only after Hunter’s legal counsel refused to change the agreement and insisted that it remained fully enforceable.

Judge Noreika is equally unimpressed by the arguments of the Biden team.

She almost mockingly noted that “Defendant’s articulated protected class is apparently family members of politically-important persons.”

She later added:

“Defendant’s claim is effectively that his own father targeted him for being his son, a claim that is nonsensical under the facts here. Regardless of whether Congressional Republicans attempted to influence the Executive Branch, there is no evidence that they were successful in doing so and, in any event, the Executive Branch prosecuting Defendant was at all relevant times (and still is) headed by Defendant’s father.”

The court also rejected Hunter Biden’s effort to subpoena Trump, former attorney general Bill Barr, and two other senior officials who served in the Trump Justice Department.

Again, she noted that it was the Biden administration that decided to prosecute Hunter Biden on the firearms offenses.

Here is the decision: Hunter Biden Gun Decision

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 15:10

The U.S. Is Facing Record Drug Shortages

The U.S. Is Facing Record Drug Shortages

And just like that, the supply chain crisis we saw for pharmaceuticals during Covid has returned. ABC reported this week that drug shortages in the United States have reached an "all-time high". 

In the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. faced 323 active medication shortages, surpassing the previous record of 320 in 2014, as reported by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists and the Utah Drug Information Service, the report says. 

The American Cancer Society highlighted a particularly alarming shortage of chemotherapy drugs, which has led to severe impacts on patient care. Hospitals and clinics have reported completely running out, with doctors having to ration or prioritize who gets the limited supplies first.

Dr. Paul Abramowitz, CEO of ASHP told ABC: "All drug classes are vulnerable to shortage. Some of the most worrying shortages involve generic sterile injectable medications, including cancer chemotherapy drugs and emergency medications stored in hospital crash carts and procedural areas."

He continued: "Much work remains to be done at the federal level to fix the root causes of drug shortages. ASHP will continue to engage with policymakers regularly as we guide efforts to draft and pass new legislation to address drug shortages and continue to strongly advocate on behalf of our members for solutions that work."

Abramowitz noted ongoing national shortages of ADHD medications, including Adderall, which began in late 2022 due to manufacturing delays and has since become demand-driven, according to the FDA. A Senate Homeland Security Committee report in March 2023 highlighted that drug shortages have been a persistent issue in the U.S. for over a decade, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to delayed or unavailable treatments. 

During a House Ways and Means Committee hearing, experts testified that these shortages also impose financial burdens on patients as they resort to more expensive alternatives. The ASHP is collaborating with federal agencies to address these shortages, recommending increased transparency and diversity in supply chains, though it expressed concerns about potential financial penalties on hospitals unable to maintain large stocks of medications.

The FDA told ABC: "The FDA can utilize different tools during a shortage to assist manufactures with increasing supply including expediting review of a supplement to add additional supply of active ingredients or adding additional capacity."

It continued: "Unfortunately, we are not able to share specific actions, as they are considered commercial confidential information."

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 14:35

Woman Who Went Viral For Hugging Trump At Chick-Fil-A Explains Why Black Voters Support Him

Woman Who Went Viral For Hugging Trump At Chick-Fil-A Explains Why Black Voters Support Him

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

A woman who recently went viral for hugging former President Donald Trump at a Chick-fil-A in Georgia and telling him not to worry about dishonest media coverage has revealed why she thinks black voters are increasingly backing the former president in the upcoming election.

President Trump met with supporters at the restaurant in Atlanta earlier this week, with a video capturing the moment that Michaelah Montgomery, a political consultant and founder of Conserve the Culture, expressed her support for the former president.

“I don’t care what the media tells you, Mr. Trump, we support you,” she says in the video, with President Trump giving her a smile and a hug in response.

Later, as the video of the encounter went viral, Ms. Montgomery sat for an interview on Fox News, in which she explained why black voters are increasingly flocking to the former president.

“They feel like he’s honest. They feel like this is somebody who, while we might not agree with how he says things, how he goes about things, at least he’s telling us what it is,” Montgomery said.

“We don’t feel like this is a snake in the grass waiting for his chance to bite us,” she continued. “This is somebody who’s telling us this is what my plan is. Here’s how I plan to execute it.”

“They just feel like he’s more relatable,” Ms. Montgomery added. “They really feel like this is somebody who’s talking to them and not just saying what they want to hear.”

President Trump took to Truth Social to express his appreciation for Ms. Montgomery’s remarks.

“Thank you! Together, we will Make America Great Again!” the former president wrote.

Ms. Montgomery’s remarks come on the heels of a series of polls indicating that black voters have sharply boosted their support for President Trump in the current election cycle.

Black Voters Breaking for Trump

Black Americans, who have often been entrenched Democrat voters, have both anecdotally and statistically been breaking away from supporting President Joe Biden in recent months and appear to be increasingly throwing their weight behind President Trump.

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed a staggering jump from the 4 percent of black voters who said in October 2020 that they would vote for then-candidate Trump, compared to a whopping 23 percent who said in February 2024 they plan to vote for him this November.

The stunning 19-percent increase in black voter support for President Trump comes as a majority (57 percent) said they see the country under President Biden heading in the wrong direction.

Recent polling by The Economist shows that, while white voter support for the former president has remained steady, racial-minority groups (long a staple of Democrat backing) have been turning away from the incumbent.

The Economist found the strongest support for President Trump among the youngest (18-24) black voters, with 21 percent of such women and 33 percent of such men saying they plan to vote for him.

And while 35 percent of black voters who identify as conservative voted for President Trump in 2020, the former president has increased this support to 46 percent of this cohort expressing their support for him.

This comes as support for President Trump among Latino voters has also surged in recent weeks, according to a recent Axios/Ipsos poll.

When Latinos who intend to vote in the November presidential election were asked who they plan to vote for, 31 percent said President Biden and 28 percent said President Trump. That’s a difference of just 3 percentage points.

However, given the poll’s 3.6 percent margin of error, this means that it’s technically possible that President Trump could actually be leading his main rival among Latino voters by up to 0.6 percentage points.

The poll also showed that President Trump is ahead of the incumbent among Latinos on the their top three most worrying issues: inflation, crime, and immigration.

Why Are Black Voters Breaking for Trump?

Three main factors appear to be spurring black voters to shift toward President Trump, according to a number of interviewees who spoke to The Epoch Times: the economy, the criminal justice system, and the influence of other black people expressing their support in a public way.

Mark Fisher, co-founder of a Black Lives Matter (BLM) group in Rhode Island, told The Epoch Times in an interview in December that he publicly declared his support for the former president because he felt compelled to “clear a path” for other pro-Trump black voters who may be reluctant to discuss their preferences openly.

Marv Neal, a 52-year-old black man who hosts a weekly radio show on Boston’s “Urban Heat” radio station, told The Epoch Times in December that he hadn’t yet decided who he would vote for in 2024, but added that he’s decidedly Trump-curious.

“Just because you’re a Democrat doesn’t mean you’re going to get my vote,” he said.

Mr. Neal said he initially didn’t support President Trump’s tough stance on immigration but, over time, he’s come to realize that more strict border security preventing illegal immigrants from pouring into the country benefits American citizens.

In her interview on Fox News, Ms. Montgomery said that members of the black community often face pressure not to support the former president.

“I really appreciate that we were able to not only let him know that regardless of what social media says … I know they’re trying to make us think we’re supposed to hate you, but we don’t,” Ms. Montgomery said, recalling her interaction with President Trump.

“And additionally, it was a learning experience for my students because they were able to see and experience firsthand how the media can warp that perception of an opinion or a person.”

The Biden campaign did not return a request for comment on this story.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 14:00

'Do The Right Thing': Assange Supporters Urge As Biden Mulls Dropping Case

'Do The Right Thing': Assange Supporters Urge As Biden Mulls Dropping Case

President Joe Biden this week for the first time said his administration is weighing the Australian government’s requests to drop charges against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who has been deprived of his freedom since 2010 and is currently jailed in London’s notorious Belmarsh Prison while fighting extradition to the United States.

Asked by reporters at the White House about requests from Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and members of the country’s Parliament for the U.S. and United Kingdom to drop the extradition effort and charges against Assange – an Australian citizen – Biden said that “we’re considering it.”

Stella Assange, Julian’s wife, responded to Biden’s remarks on social media. "Do the right thing," she wrote. "Drop the charges. #FreeAssangeNOW."

Stella Assange at the Royal Courts of Justice in London, AP

Srećko Horvat, a Croatian philosopher and co-founder of the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 pan-European progressive political party, said that “this would be the best decision Biden ever made.” British journalist Afshin Rattansi asked, “Why has Julian Assange been put through this ordeal in the first place?”

Assange – who is 52 years old and suffers from various health problems – faces multiple U.S. charges under the Espionage Act and Computer Fraud and Abuse Act for his role in publishing classified government documents, some of them revealing war crimes and other misdeeds. Among the files published by WikiLeaks are the “Collateral Murder” video – which shows a U.S. Army helicopter crew killing a group of Iraqi civilians – the Afghan and Iraq war logs.

Three U.S. administrations have pursued charges against Assange. During the administration of former President Donald Trump – who is the presumptive 2024 Republican nominee – officials including then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo allegedly plotted to assassinate Assange to avenge WikiLeaks’ publication of the “Vault 7” documents exposing CIA electronic warfare and surveillance activities. In 2010, Trump called for Assange’s execution.

The U.K. High Court ruled last month that Assange could not be immediately extradited to the U.S., where he faces up to 175 years behind bars if convicted on all counts. The tribunal gave the Biden administration until April 16 to guarantee that Assange won’t face the death penalty. Absent such assurance, Assange will be allowed to continue appealing his extradition.

Last month, Assange’s legal team denied reports that a plea deal with the U.S. government may have been in the works.

Assange has been imprisoned in Belmarsh since 2019. Before that, he spent nearly seven years in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, where he had been granted political asylum under the government of leftist former President Rafael Correa.

The United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention found in 2016 that Assange had been arbitrarily deprived of his freedom since his first arrest on December 7, 2010. In 2019, Nils Melzer, then the U.N.’s special rapporteur on torture, said Assange had been subjected to “psychological torture.”

Following the High Court’s decision last month, Amnesty International legal adviser Simon Crowther said that “the U.S. must stop its politically motivated prosecution of Assange, which puts Assange and media freedom at risk worldwide.”

Brett Wilkins is is staff writer for Common Dreams. Based in San Francisco, his work covers issues of social justice, human rights and war and peace. This originally appeared at CommonDreams and is reprinted with the author’s permission.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/13/2024 - 12:15

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