World Cup Lift: Goldman Forecasts Retailers' Potential Bounce From The 'Beautiful Game'

Believe it or not, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is just five months away, spanning 11 stadiums across 11 U.S. metro areas.

Expected foot traffic trends suggest meaningful pre-event demand for fan gear, such as jerseys, hats, and jackets, at nearby sporting goods retailers as the tournament kicks off in early June.

Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane told clients on Tuesday that Academy Sports and Outdoors and Dick's Sporting Goods stores near the FIFA World Cup will likely see a tick up in foot traffic.

"We found that ~14% of ASO stores are within 25 miles of the World Cup stadiums, compared to ~12% at DKS, while noting ASO has a relatively smaller store base concentrated in the Southeastern US," McShane said.

McShane explained:

ASO and DKS footprint analysis

There are 11 FIFA World Cup stadiums in the US, with locations consisting of Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Seattle. To assess the company footprint in each location, we looked at the number and percentage of stores within a 25-mile radius of each stadium using Placer. Additionally, to account for locals who might travel further to a stadium (versus tourists likely staying closer by), we also considered the company footprint within the CBSA (core-based statistical area) of each stadium. Of note, the store counts reflect locations available on Placer. For DKS, including both Dick's Sporting Goods and Dick's House of Sport, 11.8% of stores are within 25 miles of the stadiums, while 18.3% of stores are in the same CBSA as the stadiums. Looking to ASO, 13.6% of stores are within 25 miles of the stadiums, while 22.3% of stores are in the same CBSA as the stadiums. We would note that while the percentages are higher for ASO versus DKS, ASO's overall store footprint is smaller.

What could this mean for sales?

For ASO and DKS, we assume that stores within 25 miles of the World Cup stadiums see a +MSD sales lift in June and July, while the remainder of the fleet experiences a +LSD sales lift. For ASO, this could result in $15mn to $36mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~1.0% to 2.3% comp lift. Looking at DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods, House of Sport), this could result in $26mn to $65mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~0.7% to 1.8% comp lift. We are not including any uplift in comp from the possible uptick in team sports we could see at the end of Q2 into early Q3 if more people are inspired to play soccer as a result of the World Cup event.

What could this mean for sales?

For ASO and DKS, we assume that stores within 25 miles of the World Cup stadiums see a +MSD sales lift in June and July, while the remainder of the fleet experiences a +LSD sales lift. For ASO, this could result in $15mn to $36mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~1.0% to 2.3% comp lift. Looking at DKS (Dick’s Sporting Goods, House of Sport), this could result in $26mn to $65mn of incremental sales in 2Q, or a ~0.7% to 1.8% comp lift. We are not including any uplift in comp from the possible uptick in team sports we could see at the end of Q2 into early Q3 if more people are inspired to play soccer as a result of the World Cup event.

Company commentary

ASO expects to see a material impact from the World Cup in 2Q, specifically in June and July, noting the company has 40+ games in its markets, and 20% of ASO's customers are Hispanic. That said, ASO cannot quantify the exact impact from the upcoming World Cup as its business was different the last time this happened. Per management, the question is how long the impact lasts and if you see an uptick in youth soccer, which they believe is likely. ASO noted that soccer balls and jerseys are selling now, while more soccer accessories are expected to be sold in the spring, and additional items with logos as you get closer to the games. The company expects to have the World Cup as a focus in the portion of stores that they frequently turn over for four weeks in June and July, noting that this will likely impact the sports & recreation and apparel categories, without a massive jump in cleats.

At a recent conference, DKS management stated that the World Cup will the biggest sports moment the country has ever had, noting that World Cup balls are selling well, along with license in general. Per management, DKS expects to see increased demand around the event, noting it is leaning into license with a prominent offering that is regionally relevant. Longer term, DKS also mentioned a potential tailwind in soccer participation trends

The current World Cup assortment online

DKS and ASO both have started to incorporate World Cup assortment into their stores, spanning across a wide range of categories such as apparel, footwear, and soccer balls. We note that for both companies, the assortment is not directly on their homepages and is listed under the "Fan Shop" segments - consumers have to be proactively shopping for the World Cup to find the assortment.

McShane's full note can be found in the usual place for ZeroHedge Pro Subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 06:55

Despite Mass Protests, UK Approves Controversial Chinese Mega-Embassy In London

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Despite a weekend protest, the UK has approved plans for a new, significantly expanded Chinese embassy in central London, ending a planning dispute and overriding objections from local authorities and lawmakers who raised national security concerns.

An exterior view of the proposed site for the new Chinese Embassy, near Tower Bridge in London on June 23, 2023. Hannah McKay/Reuters

The Chinese communist regime purchased the Royal Mint Court site in 2018 and plans to convert it into a much larger embassy than its existing building in London. The site is located in the City of London, the capital’s financial district.

Tower Hamlets Council rejected China’s initial planning application in 2022, citing concerns about security, scale, and local impact. A revised application was submitted in July 2024, shortly after the Labour Party entered government.

The site for the proposed embassy lies close to major data cables and financial infrastructure that underpin the UK’s banking and communications systems, a factor that featured heavily in parliamentary objections

Approval was granted on Jan. 20 by Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government Steve Reed.

The UK’s domestic and foreign intelligence agencies said security risks linked to the new embassy could not be fully eliminated, but could be managed through mitigation measures.

In a joint letter to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, MI5 Director General Ken McCallum and GCHQ’s Director Anne Keast-Butler said it was “not realistic to expect to be able wholly to eliminate each and every potential risk.”

The intelligence chiefs added that the work to develop a package of national security mitigations for the Royal Mint Court site had been proportionate.

Reed said in a Jan. 20 statement that the decision is final unless overturned by a court challenge. He said the approval was based on the recommendation of an independent planning inspector who held a public inquiry between Feb. 11 and Feb. 19, 2025.

Political Backlash

Opposition lawmakers from across the political spectrum criticized the approval.

Shadow Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government James Cleverly from the Conservative Party described it as “a disgraceful act.”

The Conservative Party’s shadow secretary of state for culture, media and sport, Nigel Huddleston, said in a Jan. 20 post on X that there were multiple reasons to oppose the project, including heritage concerns, citing historical sites the new embassy will sit atop, including the Royal Mint and a medieval Cistercian abbey.

The Liberal Democrats said on Jan. 20 that allowing the embassy to proceed was Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s biggest mistake yet. The party’s foreign affairs spokesman, Calum Miller, said the decision “will amplify China’s surveillance efforts here in the UK and endanger the security of our data.”

Protesters outside a proposed site for a new Chinese Embassy in London on Jan. 17, 2026. Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

A Reform UK spokesman said the decision to grant the new Chinese embassy planning permission “represents a serious threat to national security.”

Baroness Kennedy of the Shaws, a co-chair of the cross-party Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, said British lawmakers should take a firmer stance toward Beijing.

“Whilst British parliamentarians, like myself, remain unjustly sanctioned and British citizen Jimmy Lai remains imprisoned on political charges, the UK must take a principled stand,” she said. “We cannot reinforce the dangerous notion that Britain will continue to make concessions – such as granting a mega-embassy – without reciprocity or regard for the rule of law.”

A UK government spokesperson said on Jan. 20 that intelligence agencies had been involved throughout the process and that national security remained the top priority.

“This planning decision has been taken independently by the Secretary of State for Housing,” the spokesperson said. “This follows a process that began in 2018 when the then foreign secretary provided formal diplomatic consent for the site.”

The spokesperson said embassy construction was a normal feature of international relations.

“National security is our first duty,” they said, adding that “an extensive range of measures have been developed to manage any risks.”

The spokesperson also said China had agreed to consolidate seven existing diplomatic sites in London into one location, which the government said would provide “clear security advantages.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 06:30

De Beers Cuts Diamond Prices, Botswana Warns Of Prolonged Slump

De Beers, the world's largest diamond mining company, has warned of a prolonged downturn in the gem industry after cutting prices for the first time since 2024. Botswana is the epicenter of De Beers' diamond production, and declining output alongside falling prices is set to put significant pressure on the southern African nation's finances.

On Monday, Bloomberg News reported that De Beers cut its diamond prices for the first time in over a year, abandoning efforts to prop up the market amid faltering demand.

A combination of soft Chinese luxury spending, expanding market share for lab-grown stones, and added pressure from US tariffs on India has pressured the world's largest diamond exporter.

The Diamond Standard Index, a benchmark price measure for investment-grade natural diamonds, has fallen by more than half since peaking in early 2022. The index is now at a record low, with data going back to 2002.

As for Botswana, the Finance Ministry warned that diamond income could fall to 10.3 billion pula ($744 million) in FY2025-26, less than half the historical average of 25.3 billion pula, and that revenues may never fully recover.

"The recovery in mineral revenue is expected to be prolonged," the Finance Ministry wrote in a report ahead of the annual budget next month. "The shortfall is likely to persist over the medium to long term with a possibility of a non-recovery."

Bloomberg wasn't clear about the size of the price discount De Beers offered buyers for diamonds.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 05:45

"Rich Kids Of Iran" Flee To Turkish Nightclubs Amid Deadly Crackdown On Protesters: Report

The children of Iran's political and military elite are back in the spotlight for their opulent lifestyles amid reports that they fled the country to party in Turkish nightclubs, even as the regime's security forces carry out its deadliest crackdown on nationwide protests in years, the New York Post reports.

Anashid Hoseini, a model and designer, is married to the son of Iran’s ambassador to Denmark. They are considered part of the aghazadeh, or children of the elite

The phenomenon of Iran's affluent youth first drew international attention more than a decade ago through the Instagram account @richkidsoftehran (now with approximately 477,000 followers), which features eyebrow-raising posts of luxury cars such, watches, and designer gear.

Among the most infamous “Rich Kids of Iran" is Sasha Sobhani, the son of a former Iranian ambassador to Venezuela, who relocated to Spain in 2019 and has posted videos of his Lamborghini and other vehicles.

Sasha Sobhani, the son of a former Iranian ambassador to Venezuela, became a social media star showing off his expat life in Spain, where he moved in 2019. Instagram/sasha_sohbani

Another account belongs to Anashid Hoseini, who is married to the son of Iran's former ambassador to Denmark and whose Instagram account with over 1.7 million followers regularly displays expensive bling and designer handbags.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by Anashid Hoseini (@anashidhoseini)

The New York Post reports:

Amid an enforced internet blackout that allows an oppressive regime to commit “genocide under the cover of digital darkness,” according to one outraged expert, reporters from The Telegraph are said to have observed “rich Iranians” partying at a nightclub in a popular holiday hotspot on the border with Turkey.

And as the Telegraph reports:

The province of Van, in far-eastern Turkey, shares a mountainous border with Iran, making it a popular holiday destination for Iranians looking to party.

Despite the chaos at home – where more than two weeks of protests had been halted by deadly force and a total communications blackout – The Telegraph witnessed elite Iranians gathering to drink, socialise and party in Van city.

Locals said that in recent days, wealthy Iranians – some said to support the Islamic regime – had arrived in Turkey to escape the political instability, fearing the protesters might turn on them as well.

"They left Iran for now because they were worried about staying there. Here, they can feel safe. They have made a lot of money from their businesses in Iran, and then they come here to spend it," one Iranian said of the partygoers. 

"Imagine if, in your country, thousands of people had been killed. Would you have the heart to go out dancing in a bar?" another Iranian told the outlet. 

The renewed attention on Iran’s showdy elites has come into focus as Iranian authorities have now acknowledged that it’s brutal crackdown on protesters have resulted in significant casualties.

In a public address, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conceded that "several thousand" Iranians died in the violence, which he unsurprisingly attributed to foreign-backed "rioters" and "terrorists" incited by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

An unnamed Iranian official cited by Reuters estimated the verified death toll at least 5,000, including roughly 500 security personnel. Independent monitoring groups face challenges due to a near-total internet blackout, but the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has confirmed more than 3,900 deaths, while other activist and medical sources inside Iran have cited figures ranging from 12,000 to 20,000 protester fatalities, according to CBS News.

Trump has repeatedly condemned the crackdown, urging protesters to continue their efforts and stating that "help is on its way.” The president has warned Tehran of "very strong action"—potentially including military measures—should executions of detained protesters proceed or the violence persist. The White House has said that all options remain under consideration, though to the eternal chagrin of warmongers like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), recent assessments suggest a possible deescalation.

Will the Telegraph cover 'rich kids of Israel' partying it up while bombs drop on Gaza?

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 04:15

German Chancellor Merz Admits Shutting Down Nuclear Energy Production Was A "Severe Strategic Mistake"

Via The Last Refuge,

Germany has a severe electricity shortage and cost problem, and it’s getting worse.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently made the admission that shutting down the German nuclear power reactors was a “severe strategic mistake.”

“To have acceptable market prices for energy production again, we would have to permanently subsidize energy prices from the federal budget,” Merz said, adding:

“We can’t do this in the long run.”

“So, we are now undertaking the most expensive energy transition in the entire world,” Merz said with pronounced frustration.

“I know of no other country that makes things so expensive and difficult as Germany.”

Merz’s government aims to solicit bids to build 8 gigawatts of new gas-fired power plants this year with the goal of having them online by 2031.

Another 4 gigawatts of capacity are foreseen for lower-carbon energy sources or gas plants that can switch to hydrogen more quickly.

Merz said on industry power price cuts that “the European Commission will also approve the combination of several options.”

Keep in mind, Germany represents the largest contributing economy in the European Union. 

The German industrial sector is the backbone of the European economic model.

All of these realities paint a very tenuous picture for the economic future in Europe, when combined with a new trade relationship with the USA, increasingly cheap goods dumped into the EU by China and the EU promising to continue spending on the war effort in Ukraine against Russia.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 03:30

"Naive To Think We’re Not At War": Latvia's Central Banker Warns Europe On Russia

Latvia's central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, has warned European leaders against downplaying the danger posed by Russia, describing in a fresh interview the European Union is already "at war" with Moscow and must be ready for further escalation, particularly in its financial systems.

This is raising eyebrows at the Kremlin, but many Russian officials might actually agree with this grim assessment: "It's naive to think that we are not at war" with Russia, Kazaks told the Financial Times.

Governor of the Bank of Latvia, Martins Kazaks

He cited as examples of an active war situation the ongoing cyberattacks on Europe, alleged acts of sabotage targeting infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, as well as drone violations of Danish and other EU airspace - the latter which has involved plenty of speculation and accusations leveled among EU officials, but no final or clear proof of links to Russia or its intelligence services.

Kazaks acknowledged that as of yet, the conflict connected to Ukraine is not being fought directly on EU soil, but he stressed "we need to be resilient to deal with that."

In response, Latvia’s central bank has intensified contingency planning in recent years, prioritizing uninterrupted access to cash and digital payments during emergencies and the ability to carry out offline card transactions for essential purchases. On this Kazāks emphasized, "We are in many cases best in the class."

He further cautioned that an armed conflict involving a eurozone member could trigger "financial stability issues" - but ironically he claimed that more and constant European/NATO support to Kiev would make these risks "marginal", also as the EU has newly sought to greatly bolster its own defensive capabilities.

This is in line with his own government's consistently hawkish anti-Moscow stance, along with the other tiny (but loud) Baltic and former Soviet satellite states.

We can say at the very least that Russia-NATO proxy war has been in full swing for quite a while now. As a reminder, the world just reached the following tragic milestone:

Russia’s full-fledged war against Ukraine has already lasted longer than the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany in World War II—as discussed in Steve Gutterman’s RFE/RL. “None of the conditions for a final resolution of the conflict are in place,” Ruth Deyermond of King’s College London told Gutterman for his analysis entitled "Will Russia's War Against Ukraine End In 2026?" Deyermond believes neither Ukraine nor Russia are “in a position to achieve a conclusive victory on the battlefield” or to collapse under pressure. According to Deyermond, the main obstacle to peace is Moscow’s stance: “Russia… seems to have no interest in an end to the fighting, let alone the war,” she says, while CSIS analyst Mark Cancian argues the Russians’ “stated goals are totally unacceptable” and their intransigence “stems from their belief that they are winning.” At best, a cease-fire or “temporarily frozen conflict” is possible so long as Putin’s presidency remains tied to the war, according to Crisis Group’s Olga Oliker.

But the above doesn't address the other pressing question: can Ukraine and its dwindling and fatigued armed forces last? While the West believes it is weakening Russia, there is little doubt that Ukraine is being fast drained and weakened to the brink of collapse. It is being propped up by the Western powers, financially, militarily, and really on almost every level.

For example, on the pressing issue of the country's collapsing power infrastructure, regional media warns amid rolling blackouts, power outages could begin to last over 16 hours a day under newly proposed emergency schedules. The country can't get parts fast enough to replace damaged substations, and this is an area where no amount of external support can keep up, ultimately.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/21/2026 - 02:45