The Big Picture

Michael Burry Speaks to Michael Lewis

 

 

Fascinating conversation updating the book, The Big Short:

“Of all the characters in The Big Short, fund manager Michael Burry (depicted by Christian Bale in the movie version) seemed the least likely to grant Michael Lewis a follow-up interview. Burry was one of the first to see the subprime housing market crisis coming, and he actually helped Wall Street banks develop the credit-default swap, the instrument that allowed short sellers to make their bets against the market. Lately, Burry has been in the news again because his fund has taken short positions against tech giants Nvidia and Palantir. Now he finally sits down with Lewis as part of this series.”

 

 

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10 Friday AM Reads

My end-of-week morning Miami/Art Basel reads:

How Much Will the Stock Market Fall in 2026? What will the worst drawdown look like? Going back to 1928, the average peak-to-trough drawdown in a given calendar year is -16%. Drawdowns were worse than average in 2025 (-18.9%), 2022 (-25.4%) and 2020 (-33.9%). Peak-to-trough drawdowns were better than average in 2024 (-8.5%), 2023 (-10.3%) and 2021 (-5.2%). (A Wealth of Common Sense)

The End of the Lunch Bowl Era: Diners have bowl fatigue, with some deriding them as ‘slop.’ Even Chipotle’s founder has moved on by starting a sandwich chain. (Bloomberg free)

Basic statistical flaws of bitcoin’s four-year price ‘cycle’ The idea that BTC follows a four-year cycle at all originates from the cadence of its coinbase reward halving every four years. Because the supply of BTC issuance programmatically decreases every four years, it is easy to invent a statistical model about that halving’s supposed effect on price. However, this ignores the reality of financial markets where millions of investors discount future prices based on all presently known information. (Protos)

Game Theory Explains How Algorithms Can Drive Up Prices: Recent findings reveal that even simple pricing algorithms can make things more expensive. (Wired)

Everything Is Not Fine in the Art World: Auction headlines offer a picture of health that hides a body in crisis. (Hyperallergic)

The Price of Remission: When I was diagnosed with cancer, I set out to understand why a single pill of Revlimid cost the same as a new iPhone. I’ve covered high drug prices as a reporter for years. What I discovered shocked even me. (ProPublica)

It’s their job to keep AI from destroying everything. Spoiler: the nine-person team works for Anthropic. What happens when just a handful of employees at one of the world’s leading AI companies — one that nearly tripled its valuation to $183 billion in less than a year, and is now valued in the range of $350 billion — are given the blanket task of figuring out how the ultra-disruptive technology is going to impact society? (The Verge)

• Would You Track Your Stools Like You Track Your Steps? Equipped with sensors and AI, smart toilets promise to monitor hydration, gut health and even cancer risk — if users can get past the ick factor. (Bloomberg free)

Will new physics affect our Universe’s far future? We have a picture of how and when it will all come to an end. These three big ideas could still profoundly change how our cosmos evolves. (Big Think)

The NBA Superstar Who’s Kobe, Steph, Wilt and Jordan—All Rolled Into One: Nikola Jokic, the three-time NBA MVP, is having the best season of his entire career. He’s also surpassing some of the best players of all time in several statistical categories. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Paul Zummo, Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder of JPMorgan Alternative Asset Management. The JPM group manages $35 billion in external hedge fund solutions for institutional and high-net worth investors. He also heads the Portfolio Management Group, and is a member of the JPMAAM Investment Committee.

Will Netflix be the winner of the Warner Bros. Discovery contest?

Source: Sherwood

 

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Sturgeon’s Corollary

 

 

Sturgeon’s Law states, “90% of everything is crap.” 1

Theodore Sturgeon was a science fiction writer in the 1950s and 60s. He was frequently annoyed by critics who dismissed the genre based on its worst examples. When asked, “Why is so much science fiction so bad?” his answer became known as Sturgeon’s Law.

I have taken it upon myself to craft “Sturgeon’s Corollary,” which states the following:

90% of all investment products are crap.”

The reason for this becomes clear across nearly every type of financial product: Mutual funds, SPACs, hedge funds, private investments, ETFs — you name it. The simple truth is that beating a broad benchmark net of fees and taxes over a long-term investment horizon (5 to 10 years +) is incredibly difficult. Add high(er) fees, investment strategies that fall in and out of favor, and human behavioral errors, and you have a formula that makes it difficult to beat a mostly indexed portfolio.

This is not to say that there aren’t excellent examples of all these products. There are some wonderful ETFs and a handful of outstanding mutual funds. Many hedge funds, especially those run by emerging managers, quants, and multi-strategy shops can and do generate alpha. However, we need to acknowledge that selecting the funds that will outperform in advance is a long shot. Only a rare few sustain outperformance over the long term.

Sturgeon’s Corollary is especially true in private markets. Private credit, private debt, and private equity have experienced tremendous growth over the past decade. This has resulted in a land grab, as many players rush into the space to secure assets and fees.

For UHNW investors and RIAs interested in this space, there are five areas they should focus on when considering adding alternative investments to their platform.

Uncorrelated returns Risk Survivorship bias Illiquidity Costs

The most significant appeal of alternative investments is the claim of uncorrelated returns versus publicly traded equities and bonds. While one might assume that the underlying economic cycle will impact everything, there are instances where this has proven not to be the case. This is the most favorable aspect of private alternatives.

The second issue is risk, especially leverage. While we see many proposals showing better-than-index-based returns, many have achieved this Alpha through additional leverage. On a risk-adjusted returns basis, the outperformance often disappears.

Illiquidity and costs are well understood, so let us consider survivorship bias. The most recent analysis of Jeffrey Ptak of Morningstar shows:

“On Jan. 1, 2015, there were 1,345 alternative mutual funds in existence. Only 341 still existed on June 30, 2025 – a 75% mortality rate.”

That is quite a stat: Three out of four funds folded across a decade, with most going belly up within the first five years. This creates a situation where the remaining fund performance across the entire asset class appears better historically than it is prospectively, because the typical fund that closes does so due to poor performance and an inability to attract capital.

My attitude toward private investments has evolved over the decades; I believe that if you can access the top decile of funds, you absolutely should. Opportunities to invest in the top quartile should also be considered. Anything below that should be approached skeptically, as they tend to be expensive, illiquid, risk-laden, and underperforming.

I expect this will be a challenging area for investors over the next decade. High-net-worth investors tend to hear about the best funds in the media while either ignoring or not learning about the rest of the field. As we have seen elsewhere, mutual funds, ETFs, hedge funds, SPACs, and so on, this is not a formula for success.

Your mileage may vary.

 

 

Previously:
10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy (October 2, 2023)

Why Most SPACs Suck (October 26, 2020)

90% of Everything is Crap (July 25, 2013)

 

Sources:
75% of Alternative Mutual Funds Have Died. There Are Lessons in That for Would-Be Private Market Investors
Jeffrey Ptak,
Morningstar, Aug 11, 2025

The State of Semiliquid Funds 2025 (Morningstar 2025)

 

 

__________

1. See Effectiviology, which notes that Sturgeon formalized it further in the March 1958 issue of Venture, calling it “Sturgeon’s Revelation.”

 

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10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning train WFH reads:

Time to admit the truth: Brexit has been an unmitigated economic failure: Leaving the EU has reduced Britain’s GDP by up to 8pc, according to a devastating US study. GDP down up to 8%; Investment down 18%; Productivity down 4%; Employment down 4%; No upside whatsoever. (The Telegraph)

Office-to-Residential Conversions Are Booming and New York Is the Epicenter: A tour of Manhattan buildings you can now call home, and a peek inside the architectural hacks that make transformations possible. (Wall Street Journal) see also When Home Sellers Set Prices Too High, They’re Paying for It: More than half of homes sold in 2025 through October had at least one price cut. (Wall Street Journal)

America is Flying Blind on Immigration: Nobody Knows How Many Immigrant Workers Have Left the US Amidst Trump’s Mass Deportations. That’s Incredibly Bad. (Apricitas Economics)

I love AI. Why doesn’t everyone? Anti-AI sentiment might or might not be rational, but it certainly relies on a lot of bad arguments. (Noahpinion)

Inside the Ostrich Effect: How Ignorance Has Become a Survival Strategy: Research suggests our tendency to ignore bad news isn’t irrational — it’s self-preservation, and could help explain why older people are often happier. (Bloomberg)

Cities Panic Over Having to Release Mass Surveillance Recordings: Flock’s ‘licence plate readers’ read much more than license plates. A judge says what they record must be released. (God’s Spies)

The Data on Self-Driving Cars Is Clear. We Have to Change Course. If Waymo’s results are indicative of the broader future of autonomous vehicles, we may be on the path to eliminating traffic deaths as a leading cause of mortality in the United States. (New York Times)

What Is the “Bean Soup Theory” on TikTok? Bean soup is sparking conversations about the rise of egocentrism. (Inside Hook)

Russia Gains the Upper Hand in the Drone Battle, Once Ukraine’s Forte: Moscow’s military has gotten better at using the war’s deadliest weapons: small, cheap drones. (Wall Street Journal)

Pete Hegseth Needs to Go—Now: A man with such contempt for the military should not run the Pentagon. (The Atlantic) see also Hegseth, with White House help, tries to distance himself from boat strike fallout: As Congress vows accountability, the Trump administration emphasized it was a top military commander — not the defense secretary — who directed the engagement. (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Paul Zummo, Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder of JPMorgan Alternative Asset Management. The JPM group manages $35 billion in external hedge fund solutions for institutional and high-net worth investors. He also heads the Portfolio Management Group, and is a member of the JPMAAM Investment Committee.

 

Money-Market Assets Rise to Record $8 Trillion


Source: Bloomberg

 

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At The Money: Finding the Hidden Alpha in SEC filings



 

 

At The Money: Finding the Hidden Alpha in SEC filings with Michelle Leder of Footnoted (December 3, 2025)

Is there Alpha to be found hidden in SEC filings? Management does seem to hide lots of bad news by just barely complying with the law. Recent indicators are this is getting worse…

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest: Michelle Leder is a researcher covering Corporate SEC-filings; she founded the research service “Footnoted” focusing on uncovering material information hidden in corporate SEC filings.

For more info, see:

Footnoted *

Book: “Fine Print, Uncovering A Company’s True Value.”

LinkedIn

Twitter

~~~

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify.

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro:  “Honesty is such a lonely word, Everyone is so untrue
Honesty is hardly ever heard, And mostly what I need from you”

 

Have you ever wondered what management buries in their SEC filings. Do they faithfully follow their obligations to their shareholders, or do they see how much they could get away with either not disclosing or hiding?

To help us unpack all of this and what it might mean for your portfolio, let’s speak to Michelle Leder. She is an SEC-filings wonk and specialist; she founded the research Service footnoted, focusing on uncovering material information hidden in corporate SEC filings. She’s also the author of the book, financial “Fine Print, Uncovering A Company’s True Value.”

So Michelle, let, let’s just start out with a basic definition.

What is disclosure? What are the rules that the SEC requires all companies to provide to their in investors?

Michelle Leder: Believe it or not, a lot of the main rules or the framework, if you will, it dates back to 1933. Think about that for a minute. That’s the basic framework, if you will. Like the foundation of the house is dates back to 20, 1933, which is kind of amazing.

It’s 92 years ago. Think about how much has changed in the markets. There’s the, the internet, for example, and you don’t have to call your broker and say, buy me some pork bellies or whatever. It, it’s really kind of amazing that the, the primary framework dates back over 90 years. Um, of course it’s been updated, over the years, but, this is sort of the, the foundation of the house.

This is what. Companies go back to companies and their attorneys go back to time and time again. They’ll talk about the 1933 act, which of course came after 1929 and the Great Depression.

Barry Ritholtz: So let, and that was what? Started the SEC, so let’s talk a little bit about the various filings. Most of us are familiar with the quarterlies, the 10 Qs, but there are also eight Ks and 10 Ks and merger proxies.

Tell us the broad documents that every company is either required to file with the SEC or when a specific event happens is triggered and then has to do a filing.

Michelle Leder: At a bare minimum, publicly traded companies have to file three 10 Qs a year. That’s the quarterly report and one 10 K, and that’s the annual report.

And then 8Ks are filed on an as needed basis, and those are often thought of as material events, but it’s also earnings releases or a press release. A lot of people think that press releases are equivalent to 8Ks, and that’s actually not true. Companies will often put out a press release and maybe they’ll attach it to an 8K, maybe they won’t, but there’s a difference between them.  Companies will often disclose something. In an AK that they never intend to put a press release out on.

Barry Ritholtz: To that point, I love this quote of yours. “Companies know they have to disclose bad news, but they also know they don’t have to post it on a billboard.”

Explain what, what, what other obligations, what do they have to say and when?

Michelle Leder: In general, if something is the, the, the definition is basically something that a reasonable investor would want to know, and that’s what triggers an eight k. A lot of people think that, that, the shorthand is like something material, but materiality is in the eye of be of the beholder.

Something that might be material to me may not be material to you. And there’s a lot of judgment calls. There’s no real like tests. I mean, of course, like. If the CEO resigns and he, absconds with like, $500 million, that’s a pretty easy test.

But you don’t see a lot of those, right?

There’s something a lot less, significant. And then there’s a discussion of like, well, do we need to disclose this, do we not? And I’ve seen it, quite frankly, all over the map. I mean, I’ve seen companies, for example, the most minor enforcement thing that a company can do is get a comment letter from the SEC.

And that’s basically like. Hey, we noticed this thing. Can you explain it a little bit more? And then the more serious thing is a wells notice. And I’ve seen companies like, for example, which is, pretty serious. It’s, it’s, it involves, uh, providing much more detailed information. Attorneys are involved, blah, blah, blah.

And I’ve seen some companies not disclose a wells notice, and I’ve seen some companies disclose a comment letter. So it really can be all over the map. That’s what makes it a little bit confusing and a little bit, hard to figure out. You can’t always say, if this happens, we have to disclose.

Sometimes there’s a lot of wiggle room in there

Barry Ritholtz:  For people who are just curious. The comment letters tend to be pretty minor, a wells notice. Typically gets sent to a firm when the SEC has concluded an investigation and is planning on bringing an enforcement action.

I would imagine that’s fairly material all the time. Am I wrong?

Michelle Leder: You would think, but I’ve seen companies wait instead of like, instead of putting out an 8k that they’ve received a Wells notice, they’ll say that they, uh, they’ll wait until the queue to disclose that. And, of course the Q is all focused on the earnings. So it’s like, buried in there somewhere, usually in their legal disclosure or maybe a risk factor,

Other tricky things that companies will do, all of a sudden, I’ve seen this over and over again, like instead of a subpoena. They’ll say subpoenas, they’ll suddenly make something plural. They won’t put out a press release and say, oh, hey, by the way, we got another subpoena. And companies play these kind of tricks. I mean, they do subtle changes andit’s really up to you as the investor to catch ’em.

Barry Ritholtz:  So what are some of the more common tricks you see that management uses to technically comply with the law and disclose material bad news to investors while at the same time trying to minimize attention to that?

Michelle Leder: Probably the number one thing, um, I see is like companies waiting until late on a Friday or the Wednesday before Thanksgiving with some reason they can choose when they wanna disclose. The rule is actually you have to disclose within four business days.

But of course with holidays and, and other things that can often be, stretched, it’s not as if like, the CFO suddenly resigns and you’ve gotta disclose at that minute. I’ve seen companies wait four days to disclose that, and that’s following the letter of the law.

Now, I would think that if the CFO suddenly resigns from the company as an investor, you wanna know about that right away.

Barry Ritholtz: So the Friday night data dump. After four o’clock, but before the SEC closes at 5:30 is legal, but sounds a little sketchy. How often do you find these sorts of things are disclosing information that ultimately affects the stock’s price?

Michelle Leder: I would say, pretty often, although it’s not an instantaneous thing, um, a lot of what I do is I see an early warning sign. here I’m out in LA and I often think about it as going to the dermatologist and saying, “Hey, I see this mole on my upper arm. Is that cancer? Or do I not have to worry about it?” that’s the type of thing.

It’s an early warning sign that there could be a potential problem. Rarely I would say, do you find like a, what I would call, like what someone might call a smoking gun. It’s not like, like, oh, the CEO embezzled, $500 million, whatever, and we’re filing for bankruptcyMonday morning type of thing.

Barry Ritholtz:  Tell us about the non-disclosure. Disclosure. I love that phrase.

Michelle Leder: Companies know that they have to disclose stuff, and what they often do is they’ll give you the bare minimum of facts, and that’s what they do.

They might say, like, for example, director Alan Smith resigned on a Friday. But they don’t tell you that, oh, maybe he was a member of the audit committee, or maybe he was the former CEO of the company, or maybe he was chairman of the audit committee, or any number of other information and that requires you to go to another filing the proxy statement really to figure out was he a long time director?

Had he only served on the board for three months? All of these things are, information that companies have, but they’re not providing it to their investors. So that’s like, that’s what I would call non-disclosure disclosure. It’s like they’re giving you the bare minimum, but not giving you anything more.

Barry Ritholtz:  Let’s talk about some metadata, red flags. A phrase I’ve picked up from you. I’ve read discussions about repeated amendments of, of various filings or reports that are consistently late. How much of this is just, “Hey, the world is complex and sometimes these things don’t happen on time,” and how much of this is Potentially predictive of real problems at the company?

Michelle Leder: I would say anytime a company can’t get its 10 K or 10 Q in on time, that’s a potential problem. If that happens repeatedly, that’s pattern recognition, right? Like if it goes on for a quarter for, several quarters, or longer that’s a potential problem, right? Companies know, for the most part, they have to get their queues in 40 days after the close of the quarter. And so, if they don’t, those companies that don’t get their filings, they’re 10 queues in on time. If they’re on a September quarter, that’s an indication of a potential issue.

If it’s the third time they haven’t been able to get their 10 Q in on time? And of course there’s exceptions, maybe the company’s going through a big merger, right? Like, when you saw like. For example, like the Albertsons-Kroger thing, a couple years ago, there was like problems there because they were trying to merge the company and there was all this regulatory stuff

If you can easily explain a late filing. I wouldn’t say that every single time a late filing is a problem, but I would say more often than not, it is.

Barry Ritholtz: Your website is called Footnoted. Tell us an example of what looked like a minor footnote in a company filing, or disclosure that. You spotted that later turned out to be a really big story.

Michelle Leder: There’s a couple of examples. One is like, Zoetis, the major animal pharmaceutical company. I started looking into them earlier, well late last year, I would say the, to toward, toward the tail end of 2024. And I put out some research to my clients, back in February of this year.

At the time, they were underplaying their, the dangers associated with one of their so-called blockbuster drugs.

Barry Ritholtz:  If I recall, their drug was causing seizures and deaths on in dogs that had no previous, history of that. There, there literally should not have been released to the veterinary community.

Give us another example that, that. A footnote turned out to be a big story.

Michelle Leder: Back in in 2022, Nicola had like a, uh, what I would call a seemingly minor disclosure. It was about a sudden resignation, by an executive, not the CEO or CFO, just another, like another.

Person who was a “named executive” – that’s a formal term, which is usually the five top executives of the company. Suddenly, and it seemed kind of unimportant, but then it turned out to be an early sign of like basically rats abandoning the ship. And of course we all know Nicolo wound up filing for bankruptcy.

And so it’s kind of like following those breadcrumbs and trying to figure out, figure out what’s really going on at the company. What are they disclosing? What are they trying to tell investors? How can I, try to figure out what’s going on.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you separate what’s really a material red flag and and something that might actually be tradable to just a normal CYA language? That’s in every legal document a corporation produces.

Michelle Leder: I think that’s a great question. And quite frankly, it’s kind of tricky, right? Like it’s, it’s, there is a lot of CYA language in the filings and, um, it can be problematic.

I’d like to think that. after 20 years of reading, SEC filings pretty intensively, that I’m pretty good. My BS meter is pretty well defined and I can kind of tell when something is CYA versus something is, more serious. Of course there is a lot of that language. the filings are ultimately written by lawyers. Now, maybe they’re written by lawyers. I’ve seen a lot more these days. Maybe they’re written by, chat GPT or whatever AI, whatever AI platform they wanna use to write these filings. But ultimately it’s the lawyers that are signing up and lawyers are obviously, tend to be risk averse

Barry Ritholtz: Given the ubiquity of AI these days. How significant is AI in things like corporate filings and how do you use AI to kind of figure out what’s going on with, with all these different things?

Michelle Leder: Well, I think AI is pretty significant in corporate filings. You’re seeing it, more and more, and I’ve certainly, I think I read a journal story like, two or three weeks ago that talked about filings in quarterly work. Or it’s an even conference call, trans, conference call scripts are being written by AI and being used to kind of train, um, executives on how to answer questions, whereas before it used to be sort of in person and, kind of that thing.

I think like AI is of course, becoming much more common in this type of thing. And then of course there’s the tools that are being used to uncover what’s going on in the filings.

I do use AI. There’s a tool that I been using, um, a lot lately. It’s called Fin Tool. And, it’s, interesting because it’s really AI definitely designed around SEC filings as opposed to a more generic AI like a Chat or like, Claude or, pick your AI tool of choice. This one’s strictly focused on SEC filings and, and financial disclosures. And I find it to be pretty good.

Of course, AI is not perfect and so you have to kind of, figure things out. It’s not gonna get everything. But I think, increasingly it can be a helpful tool in trying to detect patterns.

So, like, for example, if I wanted to know, like, how many CFOs, let’s just say, company X has had in the past 10 years. in the past I would’ve had to dug through different filings, I mean, Bloomberg would of course have that information on the terminal, but, that’s the type of thing that AI can really help you with.

Things like that —  going through and, and putting the pieces together.

Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, if you’re an active trader or if you buy speculative stocks or. Even if you have questions about the management of some of the companies you own, it might be useful to pay attention to their SEC filings, especially the things they may not want you to see items they’re dumping on a Friday evening.

Or barely meeting the minimum disclosure requirements. There’s a, there’s gold in them. There are hills if  where to look, and if  how to interpret it. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

 

Outro:  “Honesty is such a lonely word, Everyone is so untrue
Honesty is hardly ever heard, And mostly what I need from you”

 

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

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Transcript: Wilhelm Schmid, A. Lange & Söhne CEO

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: A. Lange & Söhne CEO Wilhelm Schmid, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple PodcastsSpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

Barry Ritholtz: This week on an extra special live edition of Masters in Business, I’m at the Audra Newport Concourse de Elegance, and my conversation is with Wilhelm Schmidt. He is the CEO of Ang Zona, one of the finest watch companies in the world. They’re located in Glashutte, Germany.

Our conversation talked about everything from collectible timepieces to collectible cars. I found it fascinating, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my discussion with Alan’s owners, Wilhelm Schmidt. Wilhelm Schmidt, welcome to Bloomberg

Wilhelm Schmid:   Thank you so much, Barry. Thank you.

Barry Ritholtz: Thank you so much for this, for hosting this event and, and participating in our conversation. I have, I have so many things to talk to you about, but I have to start with this prestigious concourse in this spectacular setting on what could be the nicest day of the year. What is the connection between classic cars and fine mechanical time pieces?

Wilhelm Schmid:  Some mean people say me because I like cars and watches and watches and cars, but I think it’s of course more than that. You know, watchmaking is, that’s what we emphasize on and 90% of our energy will go into watchmaking. That, that’s, that’s, that’s our home turf. But I believe as a global brand, you also need to find a world that is focused on something else, but where you have sort of a common ground that you can walk on.

And about 14 years ago, we were looking for a platform where we can show the brand and where we can bring customers to entertain. And if you look at these cars, let’s start with the cars and, and look at the word concourse of elegance. So we are not in vintage cars or racing, it’s about concourse of elegance. You know, it’s about beauty, it’s about heritage, it’s about craftsmanship, it’s about design. And if you look onto the pillars on which our brand rests, it is exactly, it’s it’s history, heritage, it’s design, and it’s of course the craftsmanship. And trust me, these cars that you see here, as they were built, they were built by proper craftsmen. And even today, without proper craftsman, you will not keep them on the road.

Barry Ritholtz: I know that you studied as an engineer and mechanic before eventually moving over to, to watches, obviously the design ethos of some of these cars. Yeah. They’re just so phenomenal and spectacular. What sort of inspiration do you running a, a fine watchmaker take from the designs of these cars?

Wilhelm Schmid: I don’t think you can immediately take something from that world into our world, but if you look at these cars, well, the first thing that comes to mind is some of them are 50, 60, 80, a hundred years old. And we look at them today and they still fascinate us. So obviously that design survived all the different fashion change of taste, odds of time. They’re here today and they’re as attracted as they were probably back then when they were brand new.

If you look at specifically the purpose-built car, you know, the race cars, they were built for only one purpose and that’s what they were perfect in. And I think in watches you also have to identify what is it that you emphasize on, and then don’t compromise too much on it because if you start making big compromises, you end up with something which is, you know, a little bit of everything, but nothing particularly really good. So I think that’s what you can take from cars into watches, identify the purpose, and then everything should direct to achieve that. If I call it the North Star, you know that purpose and for watches, it’s exactly the same. So

Barry Ritholtz: There’s a lovely white Mercedes going out there. (Yes. With the red interior.) And I once heard someone ask you to compare A Lange to a car, and you thought about it and said the gull wing, because the design was purposeful from start to finish. Tell us what you mean by purposeful in either watch or car design.

Wilhelm Schmid: You know, if you, if you go back and think about the mid fifties in Germany, I mean, I wasn’t born there. I’m not that old, but you know, I can, I see, I saw pictures, I saw pictures of the Autobar and I saw the cars on the road back then. And then think about very suddenly something like the gold wing appears. I mean, an alien could have landed and caused the same result.

Barry Ritholtz: Tubular frame up racing an,

Wilhelm Schmid: d 210 horsepower you know, the 235 kilometers an hour high speed. You know what it did, the doors.

Barry Ritholtz: ’cause you couldn’t have a door over that frame exactly for the body, they were too wide.

Wilhelm Schmid: Right. So they just came up with the doors and you know what they did at limit? They wanted to permit that because in the book it, it didn’t say explicitly, it’s not allowed, but, you know, no got much Negotiated.

Barry Ritholtz:  And they did very well,

Wilhelm Schmid: Absolutely they did. Absolutely did it. No, but I think the car was made for one purpose and it was winning races in the first place and, and, and paving the way for Mercedes internationally to be back where they wanted to be. And that is very high up. Don’t forget the price of these cars. I mean, you could probably bought streets for the same price, not houses or streets in, in, in the mid fifties ar

Barry Ritholtz: Arguably the first supercar ever made. So you’re a connoisseur of vintage cars. I know you have a couple of Porsches. Tell us what else you like in, in classic automobiles?

Wilhelm Schmid: I do like the, what I call the odd balls. The Porsche that I have are actually the exceptions because everybody knows what a nine 11 is. And probably many people know what a 356 is. So that’s, I don’t say utility, but these cars are, you know, the, the, the 356 is my Swiss pocket knife.  Because you know, you can go on a tour with it, which I take that car a lot and if the weather is nice, you just open the roof and it takes you 30 seconds and if the rain comes, it takes you 30 seconds to bring the roof back on. It is not as watertight as you think it is. I have to say. There’s still a lot of water coming through, but at least you’re roughly protected against the environment.

And the 911 is the car that I never wanted and I will never sell. It’s just a fantastic driving car. But you know, the other cars that I have are more for people that really know about cars. You know, if I share somebody, I have a Fraser Nash, most people right. Wouldn’t even know what that is. And that’s not a surprise because I think they build about 600 cars pre-war and then about 83 post-war. So the likelihood that you know it, if you’re not into the hobby is very high.

Barry Ritholtz: So I keep me meeting people here, chatting about cars, chatting about watches. When I was doing a little research on you, it turns out that you really know the firm’s clients, both customers and collectors. What do you do in an event like this? How much time do you spend with some of the longer collectors and people who are so enthusiastic about the brand?

Wilhelm Schmid: I would say 90%. You know, really, if I’m not in interviews with you, then I’m out there and, and, and talking to our customers, you know, that’s the most important for us because at the end we mustn’t forget all that is not paid by Lang and Zuna. This is paid by our customers.

Barry Ritholtz: there’s a quote of yours I really enjoyed. We wanna surprise, inspire and enchant our clients with an unprecedented imagination and ingenuity. How do you go from those lofty goals to turning it into a mechanical time piece?

Wilhelm Schmid: Yeah, well first of all, it takes strict discipline. The moment you do things that are not in line with who you are, you may surprise people, but probably not positively. And, and for sure eventually will dilute your, your your brand equity. So the third thing is you have to apply this simply. That’s why we have six different watch families and we have sort of a horizon of seven years and we wanna apply each watch family at least once, let’s say within 24 months rolling. So that’s, you know, sort of the, the engineering structure all attempts. That doesn’t answer your question. I know staying traditional, but thinking out of the box because our value set is very traditional, but our thinking is often very much out of the box.

I give you a good example. The torubillion has been invented by Breguet, I think about 280 years back or so, something like this. It was there to enhance the accuracy of a watch by, you know, eliminating the mistake that happened through gravity, basically

Barry Ritholtz: Mostly pocket watches, which we’re always facing downwards,

Wilhelm Schmid: and of course it’s a very delicate mechanism. It it does do the job because think about you put your watch on desk next to your bed, so at least for 10 hours it is exposed to gravity without moving. Anyhow, I wanna argue the necessity of a ion. What we found very interesting is that it was there to enhance the accuracy, but it was impossible to set time correctly. Because if you do that with a running second, it is pure luck that you hit exactly the point. So we were the first in 2009 to come up with a mechanism that makes the toon stop. So the second hand comes to a stop and you can adjust the time properly. We then went one step further with the 1815 tobe beyond where you’re not only stopped the moment you pull the crown, that second then goes to zero, which is the best way to adjust your watch properly.

Now that sounds easy, but if you take into consideration that that tour beyond has about 85 little parts, the total weight is about oh 0.75 gram wow. You, you know, any impact and the mechanism will be destroyed. So you have to be very careful in what you do. That is just one example where we think out of the box, a chronograph with sort of a, a running minute, which most of them do, you know, the second hand goes and it’s catching the, the minute counter. And then as, as the second hand goes on, the minute counter slowly moves, which makes it quite difficult. Is it now two minutes or three minutes or four minutes. So hours in most cases have the jumping. So it’s the second hand crosses the 12th, it jumps by one minute. So you absolutely clear it’s one minute, two minute, three minute or four minute, not is it two and a half or is it three? Just little things that don’t mean a lot for people that are not into fine watches, but they mean the world for our customers.

Barry Ritholtz: I want to talk about the Odysseus in a little bit. Yes. And that particular chronograph, which is fairly unique, but we’re, we’re not quite there yet. I wanna stay with the fact that Longa is famously a German watchmaker. What advantages are there or disadvantages Yeah. For being a German maker in an industry dominated by giant Swiss brands?

Wilhelm Schmid: I think it’s more an advantage than a disadvantage. First of all, I always say there is no Swiss watchmaking and there’s no German watchmaking. Because think about it. I mean, you can find Swiss made watches for a hundred euro and then you find, find the same for a few million. How, how, how can, how can be there any common denominator that covers the Swiss mate from there to there. So same for Germany. You know, we have watches that are very inexpensive and then you have us with sometimes watches up to 2 million obviously at the, at the top end. It’s like a package, it’s like a box of chocolate, you know. And our chocolate is craftsmanship, history and design. And we stay very strict to it.

00:13:00 [Speaker Changed] So some of the bigger brands put out watches in the millions of units. Rolex famously two to 3 million. Patek is known to do about 75,000 watches. Longa does a small fraction. Every piece is made by hand assembled twice.

Barry Ritholtz: And not because we can’t get it right first time — its assembled first and then the pieces are taken apart and hand engraved and decorated.

Wilhelm Schmid: It’s you know, because we use the original sources, we believe that anything that nothing is much better than, than German silver. You know, that’s the perfect material. It’s been, it’s been good for the last 150 years.  So we believe in this and we don’t want to coat it. Which means over time it will develop a very nice patina, you know, the silver will get that little golden glow, which is beautiful.

Problem is you breathe on it or you touch it, it will look very ugly very soon. And you cannot even clean it. You have to machine it. So that means to, to, to to, to maintain a statical and technical perfection, you first have to make sure your movement is absolutely up to scratch. All tolerances are there, everything is adjusted, everything works.

You go through the test and if you have assurance, you know, that movement is like, it has to be, it goes back to the watchmaker. He or she will disassemble it, clean it, put in the final decoration because now you know you don’t have to adjust anymore because that’s done. You clean it, you oil it, you put the final decoration in case it goes again through the test, and only then it ends up in a, on a, on a happy wrist.

Barry Ritholtz: So inherently the way you build watches, you’re gonna be somewhat limited in production. How, how does that affect the decision making process of what sort of watches you make? And I know there are a number of Longo watches that are limited editions of a hundred or 50 or even 25. Yes. What’s the thinking behind that?

Wilhelm Schmid: Very easy. You know, sometimes let’s take the minute repeater perpetual calendar that we launched this year in April. We know it’s gonna take us three to four years to build to 50 watches.

Barry Ritholtz: Meaning from start to finish you’ll do a couple of watches every year wow

Wilhelm Schmid: You know, so, and we know that. So in today’s world to come up now with this sort of capacity and say we produce a hundred means the last one will get to watch in eight years.

Barry Ritholtz:  That’s a long time

Wilhelm Schmid: Right. So what that’s, you know, capacity balanced by what we think we can expect from a customer to wait, that usually gives an idea about the limitation.

Barry Ritholtz: I was looking at the Lange Perpetual In black. Yes. And I stopped by the boutique and they said figure somewhere between 12 and 15 months. Before yours is ready. So when someone orders a watch. That goes into the system and my watch is moving. Yeah. it’s literally that specific

The Odysseus came out very unique looking sports watch then a lightweight titanium version.

Wilhelm Schmid: No, first the white gold. White gold. So it was 24th of October 19 stainless steel in April, 2020. White gold, then titanium,

Barry Ritholtz: Then the honey gold,

Wilhelm Schmid: Then the honey gold. No then the odys chronograph.

Barry Ritholtz: Ah The chronograph

Wilhelm Schmid: And then the honey gold.

Barry Ritholtz: So I, let’s talk about the chronograph. Most people are familiar with Chronos ’cause they typically have two or three sub dials. YesNot with the Odysseus

Wilhelm Schmid: Now it wouldn’t work because of the design of the dial. You know, if you look at

Barry Ritholtz: ’cause of the big day and date?

Wilhelm Schmid: If you take the dial off and you look at the movement, the upside of the movement, you will see it’s almost all blocked. So there is no way that you come through. And of course we also didn’t want to increase the size by much, you know, we wanna have a wearable watch. So the only way was to utilize the center even more than we usually do. And that’s why the chronograph, the second and the minute hand comes out of the center.

Barry Ritholtz: And when you reset the chronograph, it does a little bit of a dance. Yeah. That’s kind of unusual. I’ve spoken to a lot of people about this. Nobody has been able to explain that to me. You are my last hope.  Tell us about that.

Wilhelm Schmid: It’s very easy because they are yet together. So if you reset it, the, the minute hand will do as many turns as the second because it’s linked. Right. And it’s so quick that you can’t see. It probably would take a good camera and then you slow it down to see it. But basically, if you have stopped 17 minutes and let’s say 30 seconds, what works? Like this is factually seven times going around to come to zero.

Barry Ritholtz: Why does it, why does it do that?

Wilhelm Schmid: Because it’s geared together. It’s, there’s, you know, because it comes out of the,

00:19:05 [Speaker Changed] It’s strictly because of it’s a centen center hands. I think that’s

00:19:07 [Speaker Changed] Exactly the point.

00:19:08 [Speaker Changed] Huh. That, that’s really, that’s really fascinating. So a watch like the Zet work or the Odysseus, how long is that process when someone first conceives of this, take us through how long it is from idea till the finished product in the boutique.

00:19:24 [Speaker Changed] Very different. You know, Odysseus, as I said, took us 25 years. Basically. I think that the real process where we identify, that’s the phase, you know, that looks different to anything else in the market that will not cannibalize anything within our own range. To to to, to launch, to watch it. The 24th of October, in, in, in, in 2019. I was good. Seven years,

00:19:53 [Speaker Changed] Seven years from start to finish. That’s, that’s amazing. Yeah. So, so yesterday at the event two new longest dropped the Axia thin. Yes. In black Onyx and platinum. Is that

00:20:05 [Speaker Changed] Right? Yes. True. Onyx honey, gold and platinum. Yeah.

00:20:08 [Speaker Changed] Really striking dress watches. The Saxon are sort of, I don’t wanna call it entry level, but they’re less pricey than some of the other watches.

00:20:19 [Speaker Changed] They are more simple, simple. That’s how I show it, you know, it’s, for us, it’s all about the amount of parts the years it take to develop the, the hours it takes to assemble that at the end will define whether it’s a complicated watch or I would say more simple watch and two hands. I think we don’t go more simple than two hands.

00:20:40 [Speaker Changed] And my first nice dress watch was a rose gold Saxon mood phase, you see over black. Yes. And one of the things that people are genuinely surprised is the same level of detail and finishing what, what you describe as simple a lot of people think of in terms of price point. There seems to be no difference. No, no, no. It’s,

00:21:03 [Speaker Changed] You know, if you look at our, our process in the manufacturing, we can, you know, the people that work on finish, they sometimes have no idea where that part will end up. So they will not say, oh, that goes into grand complication. We do it a little better. Or that goes into thin. How we do it a little, that’s

00:21:22 [Speaker Changed] The same thing regardless. Million dollars or entry level.

00:21:25 [Speaker Changed] It, we do not distinguish in quality at all. It’s all the same emphasized on lofty detail, craftsmanship, hand polishing, decoration, hand engraving. There is no difference. Double assembly, it’s one process. It doesn’t matter whether the watch would cost 25,000 euro or 2 million.

00:21:47 [Speaker Changed] And when people say to me, I’m looking for an elegant dress watch, but something that’s not too pricey. My answer is always the Saxon, it’s just timeless, so elegant and continues to just, yes, the design gets better over time.

00:22:03 [Speaker Changed] And, and it’s, it’s, it’s ama you know, people, you look at it and you see it’s an Alan on Zuna watch. If you have something complicated like this, you have a lot of hands to work with. You have the sub dials, you know, you have to push back. You can do a lot. But I think one of the biggest challenge for designers is you have two hands to work with and not a lot on the on the dial. Make it an Alan Zuna.

00:22:28 [Speaker Changed] So the data graph has been called one of the best chronographs ever designed. What’s the core of that Watches appeal? What makes that so special?

00:22:39 [Speaker Changed] I think it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s more than just a watch. You know, I, I’m a watch collector for a long, long time. I can remember when I opened a newspaper in, in, in, in, in 20, in, in 94. And I saw the at with the four lunga watches. 99 were, most companies around the world were still using somebody else movement and often the same supplier. Here comes a chronograph, which is one of the crown things in watchmaking from Germany in a very unique design with an outsized date. I think it was a wake up call. And, and, and we must not estimate what that watch started in the watch industry because before that chronograph didn’t play a role. There were two supplier and that was it basically after that. And if you then go and, and, and, and analyze what happened from then to the following 5, 6, 7 years, a lot of chronograph movements came out. So that’s why this watch is so important for us because that was the first real complication other than the tobe beyond polymer that we worked on. And I think that was a wake up call and it, it, it just gave us a reputation as a solid watchmaker that it’s the next level up

00:24:20 [Speaker Changed] For sure. Absolutely. The next level up. So you get to spend a lot of time with, with clients, with customers. Absolutely. With collectors. How are you seeing the, their expectations and desires changing? What does the client base look for from Longo over the next decade? I think it

00:24:38 [Speaker Changed] Does. It never changed.

00:24:40 [Speaker Changed] Never

00:24:41 [Speaker Changed] Changes. No, you know, first of all, do you have any idea what you will like in three years from now, one

00:24:50 [Speaker Changed] Who does?

00:24:50 [Speaker Changed] Exactly. So when people say, oh, you come with a small watch because you follow trend, I say, look, I mean, I wish we had known seven years ago and we started developing the movement. We are not in the fashion industry. Business, you know, our processes and the time it takes to come to market is so long that you maybe can anticipate, but maybe you have to stay true to yourself. And I think the one thing which our customers expect from us is authenticity. It has to be in Lan Zuna. And if you had followed the discussion after we launched the Odysseus, because you know, we always said, we only precious metal in here, can we steal? And later on with titanium, say, of course there was a heated debate. Of course there was. And we were aware of it because that is a tension that on purpose we wanted, there were a lot of people that said, ah, it’s not for me. I see Langa as dress watch only there were luckily a lot more people that say, I want that watch desperately where we can produce fine. However, it just opened up a new chapter in our design language because now we have a playground to try out things that we would never do with our classical watch families.

00:26:19 [Speaker Changed] And every car enthusiast knows when the Porsche nine 11 came out, the 3 56 purists were upset. What, what are you giving us such a big car who needs six cylinders?

00:26:32 [Speaker Changed] Absolutely. That’s why they built a nine 12. Right. Put the four cylinder in. You know, that’s, that’s exactly what they did. So yeah. That’s funny. Sometimes I

00:26:41 [Speaker Changed] I I love this quote of yours and I’m wondering if it still applies. You said part of longer’s success is that we’re a secret. Yeah. So question number one is what makes that an asset? And question number two is look at this event. How much longer is this a secret? Oh,

00:26:58 [Speaker Changed] It is, it is, it is in the white world. We are still absolutely unknown and I think that’s a good place to be. There are, there are three reasons to it. The one is, what we do is very difficult to understand specifically at the price point that we request for people that are not into fine watchmaking. Why would you spend so much money on a watch when your iPhone gives you the time? More precisely. You know, that the general thinking for sure. The second is, in today’s world, you don’t want to show off too much. At

00:27:40 [Speaker Changed] Least these are very much under the radar. And I am always shocked at people who haven’t the slightest idea when I’m wearing this, as opposed to the better known

00:27:49 [Speaker Changed] Brands. Why isn’t that nice? I mean, that gives you a certain confidence and a certain, it’s, it’s, you know, you don’t need to shout. And on the other hand, and I’m sure you can agree on it, if you see somebody that is also having a una it’s not difficult to, to get the communication started. Isn’t it

00:28:08 [Speaker Changed] Immediate, immediately have something to shout about if you know, you know,

00:28:12 [Speaker Changed] You know for sure. And, and that’s why I believe it is so important to remain a secret. I also admit the real challenges to secret, to share the secret with, you know, the right crowd of people. Because at the end, you know, I mean I’m fine, but whenever we take the new apprenticeship trainees in in August, I feel the duty on my shoulders because now they start a career as watchmaker and they’re in for the next 40 years. So we need to make sure that the next generation knows what we do and we stay relevant for this.

00:28:46 [Speaker Changed] So I only have you for a few more minutes. I want to get to my last couple of questions. Speaking of the next generation. Yeah. How do you appeal to younger buyers and and what sort of approach do you have as all these tastes seem to shift amongst the 20 and 30 something crowd?

00:29:07 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I gladly we don’t have a real issue here. We have a surprisingly young customer base. I always say that and I never understood it. I mean, if you are young and you’re interested, what speaks against quality, longevity, classless and timeless design. Robustness, value creation. Yeah. I mean, it doesn’t matter whether you are a hundred years old or 10. If you are into that, you’re gonna like it. The way we connect with these people is different to the way, let’s say I was connected to the watch industry because, and as, as I grew up, it was very difficult to find even specialized magazines for, for watches. Today you have everything you can think of. I believe we live in absolute paradise times for for watch enthusiast because never ever in history have there been more watch brands, higher quality, more information, right. More information and easy accessible information. You know, you can do your research without leaving your room. That was impossible in times, you know, where I started to get into the hobby,

00:30:21 [Speaker Changed] Although I, I would tell people go see the watch. Go try it on, make sure that’s

00:30:26 [Speaker Changed] The only thing that matters. That’s right. It’s the only, I would just say the natural habitat of a wrist watch is, is the wrist a wrist? So forget about looking at thumbing and ah, I like it. That’s a good start. But the moment of truth is you grab that watch, you put it around your wrist, you look at yourself and see is it me or is it not?

00:30:46 [Speaker Changed] So how do you have access to every longer watch? Yeah, there is. How do you decide what you’re gonna grab that day to wear? I,

00:30:54 [Speaker Changed] You know, this one because of, you know, chronograph, we’re in a car world. It’s the 1815, so that’s the more classical line. I’m a huge fan of chronographs and it doesn’t get any better than a Chronograph Raton. So you know that. And I, it’s admit, I think it works very nice with my tan color right now.

00:31:17 [Speaker Changed] So our last question. Tell us what’s next for Longa and Sona? What surprises are coming up down the road? What should we be looking for?

00:31:27 [Speaker Changed] I think it’s always good to look for, but if I now share secrets, there’s no surprise. And that’s the one thing people love surprises. But I can share with you as much as is, this is not the last surprise for this year.

00:31:44 [Speaker Changed] Oh, really? So the, the Saxon Finns not the last surprise of 2025. That’s

00:31:50 [Speaker Changed] What I should

00:31:50 [Speaker Changed] Fantastic. That was my conversation with Wilhelm Schmidt, CEO of Langan Zona at the Newport Oring concourse to Elegance. Extra special thanks to the team that came up to Newport to help film this. Alexis Noriega is my video producer. Sebastian Escobar is my videographer. Anna Luke is my producer. Sage Bauman is the head of podcast at Bloomberg. I’m Barry ols. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

~~~

 

 

The post Transcript: Wilhelm Schmid, A. Lange & Söhne CEO appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Return of Cisco

 

 

I’ve never shared this story before, but since we are at a milestone, I might as well…

February 2000: I was working as a strategist for a brokerage firm. My buddy Anthony had an international clientele, all deeply invested in US tech companies. His biggest client was flying in from the Middle East for a combination New York City shopping trip/portfolio review.

His biggest position? Cisco (CSCO). Millions of shares worth 10s of millions of dollars…

I did not cover the company (I was not an analyst). But I had views on the networking and telecom sector; I believed everything in the “George Gilder Telecosm” was a disaster waiting to happen. Gilder’s (expensive) newsletter correctly identified budding technology trends, but also possessed awful timing. When his telecoms portfolio plummeted by about 90%, he had the nerve to actually say, “I don’t do price.” 1

But I digress.

Prepping for the meeting, I reached out to Paul Sagawa of Alliance Bernstein. In the 1990s, Sagawa was the axe on Cisco; for nearly two decades, he correctly identified the upside for the networking firm. But by 1999, Sagawa changed his tune. Cisco had become a giant market leader but was increasingly moving towards vendor financing. In the late 1980s, less than 5% of Cisco’s clients used the company’s own financing arm; a decade later, it was 90+%. “Buy our valuable cutting-edge technology, we only need your flimsy, VC-backed start-up to sign a promise to pay for it (eventually).

Sagawa correctly saw this as a budding disaster.

The market isn’t kind to stock bulls when they reverse course and turn bearish.2 Throughout 1999, he went from a stock analyst superstar to a persona non grata. His fall from grace was vindicated twelve months later, but before the deluge, he was somewhat of an outcast.

My firm was not even a Bernstein client; I took a chance and called the number listed on his most recent CSCO research. To my surprise, he not only answered the call but also took the time to explain the situation to me for an hour.  Sagawa provided the hard data and details for me to discuss the downside of Cisco with Anthony’s client, loaded with all the ammunition needed.

At the meeting, I started with the broadest overview: The stock was up ~3,700% since its IPO. The Sheik sat impassively as he took it all in. I drilled down into the details, the vendor financing, the changing technology landscape. I didn’t feel like I was making any headway, and didn’t want to badger him. The last thing I said was “You’ve made immense returns in this name, and we are years into this bull market; my best guess is there’s more downside risk than upside potential in the high-flying names – and Cisco is the poster child.

I’m not a good salesman; I gave it my best shot, but didn’t expect much. I said my thanks and left.

I was surprised a few months later when Anthony came into my office with a little thank-you gift for the effort. “The sheik sold half, he is thrilled with us.” At the time, Cisco had already fallen 35% on its way to dropping ~90%.

I had written about the Fortune Cisco cover repeatedly – in 2000, then again years later. It’s now a cautionary chapter in How Not to Invest.

 

Here we are, 25 years later, and CSCO has perked up. Quantum computing, AI, and Cybersecurity have the stock rallying 28.9% this year. It has not quite reached $80.06, the dotcom peak in March 2000, but it is finally above the level where that infamous cover story (“No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco”) came out.

The key lesson is that media coverage – of any stock, asset class, or investment – should never be a substitute for your own thinking.

 

 

Source:
There’s Something About Cisco
By Andy Serwer, Irene Gashurov, Angela Key
FORTUNE Magazine, May 15, 2000

 

Previously:
2000: “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (May 15, 2023)

Can Anyone Catch Nokia? (October 26, 2022)

Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021)

Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016)

How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021)

Predictions and Forecasts

 

 

__________

1. “Most of the companies listed have lost at least 90 percent of their value over the past two years, if they’re even in business anymore.” –Wired

2. I experienced this firsthand with EMC…

 

~~~

I discuss the trouble with the CSCO cover in How Not to Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth―and how to avoid them.”

Its on sale at Amazon Cyber Monday Deal: $18.01

 

 

 

The post The Return of Cisco appeared first on The Big Picture.

10 Monday AM Reads

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

The $260 Billion Mom-and-Pop Funds Distorting the Credit Market: Popular with individual investors, fixed-maturity funds are hoovering up the debt of big companies, reducing borrowing costs but obscuring repayment risk. (Bloomberg)

Goodbye, Price Tags. Hello, Dynamic Pricing. Businesses increasingly are using algorithms to determine prices, and to rapidly adjust those prices throughout the day. This new technology is called dynamic pricing, and it’s poised to change the way businesses set and advertise their prices. Think of the ever-changing electronic signs at gas stations, but for everything. (New York Times) see also Gen X-ers Have Money to Spend. Why Are Retailers Ignoring Them? Three in four Americans ages 45 to 60 say they expect to overspend for the holidays. They’re “sort of like the glue within the consumer spectrum.” (New York Times)

Unpacking the Mechanics of Conduit Debt Financing: Understanding the pass-through financing model behind the AI infrastructure boom. (This Is Not Investment Advice)

Private Equity Firms Could Face More Litigation as They Push into Retail: TAMU’s William Magnuson and Oxford’s Ludovic Phalippou argue that misleading metrics and opaque fees pose “significant litigation risks when ordinary investors enter the picture.” (Institutional Investor)

Are the rich fleeing Mamdani’s Manhattan? Not according to the data. The reasons for the increase in sales can be attributed in large part to overall gains in the stock market, the expectations of big Wall Street bonuses and declining mortgage rates. (USA Today)

What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy. What are the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates? A careful review of the major changes in US tariff policy since 1870 shows no systematic relation between the state of the cycle and the direction of the tariff changes, as partisan differences on the effects and desirability of tariffs led to opposite policy responses to similar economic conditions. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Mapping the Sense of What’s Going On Inside: Scientists are learning how the brain knows what’s happening throughout the body, and how that process might go awry in some psychiatric disorders. (New York Times)

The Ultrarich Are Spending a Fortune to Live in Extreme Privacy: In Miami and elsewhere, the wealthy are moving in increasingly private spheres, shelling out big money to bypass the indignities of public life. (Wall Street Journal)

YouTube’s Right-Wing Stars Fuel Boom in Politically Charged Ads. The popularity of YouTube podcasts among conservatives is driving a boom in small businesses tailoring ads to their millions of listeners, paying hosts like Joe Rogan and Candace Owens to read out promotions in the hope that fans will place orders. The phenomenon has enriched both the hosts and YouTube, supporting further growth of the businesses using ideology to sell. (Bloomberg free) see also How Right-Wing Superstar Riley Gaines Built an Anti-Trans Empire: The swimmer tied a trans woman for fifth. The MAGA industrial complex took care of the rest. (Mother Jones)

Life in the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry borderlands, from beatosu to goblu: The legend of beatosu originated with a prank carried out by Peter Fletcher, a Michigan alumnus who served as chairman of the Michigan State Highway Commission in the 1970s. Fletcher was in charge of the state highway maps, which include a tiny strip of northern Ohio. At Fletcher’s direction, the highway commission’s 1978 maps included a fictional town called “goblu” near Toledo and another called “beatosu” in a rural part of Fulton County, Ohio. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

Bitcoin Disconnecting From Nasdaq

Source: Apollo

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

10 Sunday Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

Inside the DOGE Succession Drama Elon Musk Left Behind: What really happened when he logged out of Washington. (Politico)

They were looking for work — but found a scam instead: Innovative scammers are posting jobs that are nearly indistinguishable from legitimate listings, including on trusted websites like LinkedIn and ZipRecruiter. (NBC News) see also Americans With Four-Year Degrees Now Comprise a Record 25% of Unemployed Workers: Americans with four-year college degrees now comprise a record 25% of total unemployment, underscoring a sharp slowdown in white-collar hiring this year. (Bloomberg)

AI Meets Aggressive Accounting at Meta’s Gigantic New Data Center: Favorable treatment off the balance sheet hinges on some convenient assumptions. (Wall Street Journal)

What It Takes to Defeat the Leaf Blowers: To end the use of gas-powered blowers, advocates in one New Jersey town focused on public health and made their case directly to local elected leaders. (CityLab)

New X Games: Legitimate Groyper or Bangladeshi Bot? The ragebait in your timeline may be coming from abroad. (The Bulwark) see also On the Internet No One Knows You’re a “MAGA patriot” in Lagos: On X’s new location feature… (Agents of Influence)

The Ultrarich Are Spending a Fortune to Live in Extreme Privacy: In Miami and elsewhere, the wealthy are moving in increasingly private spheres, shelling out big money to bypass the indignities of public life. (Wall Street Journal)

Deportation Inc.: Cost to Deport One Person: The US government says it spends an average of $17,121 to deport a single person. One man’s journey through the process shows the price can be significantly higher. (BusinessWeek)

It’s the ‘most important fish in the sea.’ And it’s disappearing. If the menhaden decline continues, striped bass could be next to vanish.  (Washington Post) see also First, the frogs died. Then people got sick. An emerging area of research is uncovering surprising links between nature and human health. (Washington Post)

Recycling Lead for U.S. Car Batteries Is Poisoning People: This is what the auto industry wants people to see: sparkling factories turning reclaimed lead into batteries for Ford, Toyota, GM and the rest. But in Africa’s lead recycling capital, reality looks very different. Factories are poisoning people. We know because we tested them. (New York Times)

The Olivia Nuzzi and RFK Jr. Affair Is Messier Than We Ever Could Have Imagined: Inside the most important, and also least important, story of our time (The Ringer) see also We Are Not Amused: The Olivia Nuzzi Return is a Disgrace. Olivia Nuzzi Return is a Disgrace (Unpopular Front)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

 

More Americans are getting their power shut off, as unpaid bills pile up

Source: Washington Post

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The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.