The Big Picture

Transcript: Jeffrey Becker, Jennison Associates Chair/CEO

 

 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Jeffrey Becker, Jennison Associates Chair/CEO, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

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00:00:02 [Speaker Changed] Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. This is Masters in business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio

00:00:17 [Speaker Changed] This week on the podcast, Jeff Becker, chairman and CEO of Jenison Associates, they’re part of the PG Im family of Asset Managements. Jenison manages over $200 billion in assets. Jeff has really a fascinating background from Arthur Anderson to Aetna to Altas to ING. Eventually, he becomes CEO of Voya when the parent company spun out the US holdings into a separate entity, really an a, a fairly unique career path and is sort of uniquely situated to look at the world of investing. Jenison launched way back in 1969 as a growth equity shop. Their focus is on generating alpha with high conviction concentrated portfolios. They put up a damn good track record over the years. I thought this conversation was really interesting. There aren’t many people who have this sort of perspective and perch to see the world of investing from both an institutional and insurance based perspective and a long, long-term retail investment perspective. I thought this conversation was really interesting, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my conversation with Jenison Associates, Jeff Becker. So let’s start with your background. You get a bachelor’s in economics from Colgate and then an MBA in finance from NYU Stern. Sounds like you had been thinking about finance as a career right from the start.

00:02:02 [Speaker Changed] Quite the contrary, Barry. I had no idea what I wanted to do in college or coming outta college. I was a liberal arts major. My parents felt strongly about getting, you know, me a liberal arts degree and having me learn how to read and write effectively. And so that was the goal. I was an economics and English major. Econ was the closest thing you could get to business in, in some of those schools. And so, you know, that’s what I majored in. You know, I had no real guidance in terms of finance. Neither of my parents were in the financial industry. And so I did what most students did in those days, as you saw on the board, who was coming up to interview and, and potentially hire undergrads. And, and I saw that the, what were in those days, the big eight accounting firms were coming up to hire and they had this program where they would hire liberal arts graduates, have them work, and as part of the arrangement would pay for you to go to grad school. So it was a combined program through Arthur Anderson to go to NYU. And they were originally paying for a master’s in accounting, but ultimately everyone parlayed that into an MBA in finance. Huh,

00:03:12 [Speaker Changed] Really interesting. And did you end up at Arthur Anderson for any length of time?

00:03:16 [Speaker Changed] I did. I did. I ended up there for, for seven years. It was a, it was a terrific experience. It was a, a great company. You know, in those days these companies hired, you know, crops of undergrads. They, they trained them together. We learned everything, you know, across from accounting to auditing to, to tax and valuation. I ended up in what was called the valuation services group, where we valued real estate and businesses either for transactions or for m and a activity. And it was a, a terrific company, a great learning experience. They sent you out to clients very early on in your career, and you also got people management skills pretty early on.

00:03:55 [Speaker Changed] So learning to value real estate, learning to value companies, sounds like you’re going into private equity and private credit down the road like that seems to be the path these days. What was that experience like and how did it affect how you look at investments today?

00:04:15 [Speaker Changed] You would’ve thought that I didn’t know what private equity or private credit really was at the time. I had started to shift more and more into real estate. The background of tearing apart financial statements and balance sheets and discounted cash flow analysis was a great foundation really for anything in you do in finance ultimately. So it was a great experience in, in that regard. But I was starting more and more to specialize in real estate. And as a result, I got hired away by one of Anderson’s clients, which was Aetna. And Aetna had a very large commercial real estate business. As you, as you may recall, the insurance companies had huge commercial loan portfolios in those days that they were using to backstop long dated life insurance liabilities. It seemed like the perfect match of asset and liabilities until real estate valuations bottomed out. And the life companies ended up with a whole bunch of mortgage loans that, that were underwater. That led to a terrific experience for me being part of the workout of all of those loans in the early nineties. So we did foreclosures, we did restructurings, we did equity kickers, and we pulled up some of these loans into CMBS deals and sold them, sold them through Wall Street. It was really a terrific experience and really bred out of a crisis.

00:05:36 [Speaker Changed] And I just wanna emphasize, we’re not talking the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. We’re not talking about the financial crisis in oh 8, 0 9. You’re talking about really the post SNL crisis, late eighties, early nineties, where a ton of commercial real estate suddenly took a big hit. Eventually you become Chief credit officer covering real estate at Aetna. Tell us a little bit about that.

00:06:02 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I was, I was part of, you know, the, the management that ultimately had to determine, you know, the valuation and, and the, the credit approval of the different transactions that we were working on, whether that was originally putting out new mortgage loans and determining whether it was a, you know, a good credit for, for the insurance company capital, or when we got into the restructuring period, it was about was this the right deal? Was were these the right terms, you know, for us as we, as we tried to salvage the portfolio.

00:06:32 [Speaker Changed] And then following Aetna, you end up at Altus Investment Manager, your, your CFO there. What was that like going from analyzing credit to being chief financial officer for an investment firm?

00:06:46 [Speaker Changed] Well, one of the things we were doing by working out the, the troubled mortgage loan book at Aetna is we were also working ourselves out of a job. So the job was to wind down the portfolio, and we were actually given retention agreements that were two years in duration. And at the end, we essentially were out of jobs. That was a little bit scary for an early career endeavor, but by the same token, it was the first time in my life I ever saw a six figure payment come at one time. And it was, it was quite, quite rewarding at an early stage in my career. So I knew I was gonna be out of a job. Aetna was up in, in Hartford, Connecticut. So I was up there alone as a, as a, as a young man. And I went to the head of HR at Aetna and I said, this has been a terrific experience, but my, my gig is up and I’m probably gonna head back to New York City.

00:07:40 Is there anything that I should look at within Aetna? She happened to be a Colgate grad, took an interest in in me as a Colgate grad, and said, yeah, we’ve got this great little third party institutional investment manager named Altus Investment Management. It runs pretty independently, has about a hundred billion in assets I’m gonna send you over there to meet the young dynamic CEO there, a guy named John Kim. So I went over and met John, we had a, a terrific three hour conversation, and at the end of the conversation he said, you’re hired. And I said, I’m hired, what am I gonna do? And he said, I don’t know, we’ll figure it out, but I think you’re gonna be CFO. And I said, well, I know Arthur Anderson is on my resume, but I I actually have never practiced accounting, and so I’m not sure that’s the right role for me. And he said, well, we’ve got a really strong finance team and a good strong controller. I want you to be a more strategic CFO, I want you to work on structured deals, m and a, you know, levers of profitability. And so that turned into a CFO role, which again, is a, is a terrific experience for anything you do. Really understanding how businesses make money and the levers of profitability is, is, is, is a great experience. Huh.

00:08:50 [Speaker Changed] So how do you go from Altus to ING investing management? What, what was that transition like?

00:08:57 [Speaker Changed] Well, in 2003, ING acquired Aetna’s financial businesses, and that was the life insurance, retirement and asset management businesses. And so Altus went along with that, with that acquisition. ING had been on a buying spree around the world and in the US buying up insurers and, and other businesses. And had ultimately ended up with about six asset managers, brands that are now all gone. Altus. The one I came to the party with, Pilgrim Furman sells Lexington Partners, Relias Star Research, the original ING investment management. But, but ING did not wanna see these run as, as boutiques ultimately in the long run, ING had a very integrated model, a mono brand approach to the world, and wanted to bring all these asset managers together. So I was selected to help lead the integration of these asset managers, which was, which was an interesting project. Each of these asset managers had A-A-C-E-O.

00:10:01 These boutiques were pretty fiercely independent, and it was a bit of a bumpy ride as we, as we brought them together. But ultimately, we, we did, we, you know, we started out in some cases with four small cap equity teams. And, and in, in some instances we selected one and not the others. And others, we instances we might have combined teams. And in other instances, we started all over. So it was a, you know, a multi-year project to, to really bring all of what were the acquired asset managers into one integrated ING investment management. And ultimately, I, I was the CFO of that initially. And then later the COO, the CEO at the time came to me and said, you did a terrific job on the integration project. You can be cce, CFO or COO, which one do you choose? And I said, well, can I be both? And, and he said, no, I can’t do that right now, so you have to pick one. And, and I chose CFO and my rationale was the CF o’s always at the head table because there’s always a financial implication to everything you do. So that’s, that’s where I started. But ultimately did become COO as well,

00:11:12 [Speaker Changed] Eventually, ING changes its name to Voya and everything is now branded Voya that were either these other pieces or ING and you rise to the role of CEO. How did that come about and what was it like going from COO and CFO to CEO?
00:11:32 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, it, it happened because of another crisis In 2008, the, the great financial crisis ING had had gotten overexposed in, in, in mortgages and had to take a loan from the Dutch state to shore up their tier one capital ratios. And as part of that deal with the Dutch government, ING agreed to sell off the US properties. If you can re remember back to the start of the financial crisis, it was viewed as largely a US issue. And so I think there was a desire to, to shed the businesses that, you know, where the, where the subprime mortgage bubble had had burst ultimately. And so I was, I was, you know, working for the head of ING investment management, but when ING decided to take this loan, there was a change in leadership. And, and my boss became head of ING Americas all of the insurance, retirement, and life businesses.

00:12:26 And I became CEO of ING investment management, which later became Voya. The way I found out that I was becoming CEO of I-N-G-I-M was a, was a bit of an interesting story. I was coaching my son at a U 12 hockey tournament up in the northeast, and my cell phone kept ringing while I was on the bench yelling at kids to skate harder and get into the, get into the corners, and it kept ringing. And it was my boss, and it was a Sunday, and eventually in between periods, I picked it up and, and, and it was, my boss at the time was a gentleman named Rob Leary, terrific mentor of mine who said, I, I need you to get down to my house tonight. I said, Rob, I’m up in the Boston area. He lived in Greenwich, Connecticut. And he said, no, you, you have to be here.

00:13:15 And I said, am I fired? And ’cause if so, I’m not coming down, just tell me now I’m gonna finish the game. And he said, no, you’re not fired, but you have to get down here. So I made my way down to Greenwich, Connecticut, and I proceeded to learn that ING had taken the loan from the Dutch state, and that in the morning before we woke up, because Europe’s ahead, it was going to go public and my boss would become the CEO of the Americas, and I would become the CEO of the investment management firm. And we, we planned what was gonna happen the next morning. I was gonna have to assure our investment teams, our clients, our, our pension consulting partners, that everything was gonna be okay, and, and that we were, you know, we were still in business, but as you can imagine, it’s incredibly hard to run an asset manager with a for sale sign on, on your back because ING had announced that it would dispose of the US businesses. So another crisis br opportunity for me, I had to actually tell my team of peers that I was now their boss because it was so chaotic that no one came in to actually deliver that message. I had to deliver it myself. But it was a great team and we, we, we rallied together and we, we built the business, grew, grew it coming out of the financial crisis, and then that ultimately became the business that we spun out as Voya.

00:14:37 [Speaker Changed] So, two questions that I, first, I have to get the date of this, like, was this right in the middle of the crisis? Was it towards the tail end? When did you get this Sunday hockey phone call?

00:14:50 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, it was about the middle of 2009. So 2008, you know, as you remember, Barry fourth quarter was chaotic. Sure. We were having global calls trying to preserve capital, who knew what was failing next. And then as we got into 2009, companies were starting to sort out, you know, where they were. And that’s, and it was about mid 2009 where ING decided to take, take the state aid.

00:15:13 [Speaker Changed] But, but the second question is, he couldn’t have told you that over the phone. Like, I know they want everybody in the room when you’re planning, but no, no, this is good news. You’re getting a promotion, get down here. It’s important. Had had a, that’s a stressful drive from Boston to Greenwich. It,

00:15:29 [Speaker Changed] It, it was, I think he was being extra cautious given it that it was material non-public information and, and pretty significant information Gotcha. At, at that. And, and also we needed to be up and running in New York Monday morning and, and so he needed to make sure I was down Sunday night. Gotcha.

00:15:46 [Speaker Changed] That, that’s really, that’s really quite fascinating. How did you end up going from Voya to Jenison Associates? What drew you there? Yeah,

00:15:55 [Speaker Changed] I wasn’t necessarily looking for a new role. I was enjoying enjoying the role at Voya, being CEO of the asset manager. I was on the executive committee. I was learning new skills, being part of quarterly earnings calls and, and, and, you know, helping grow that business as part of a new company and new brand. But at the same time, I was probably deep down ready for a change. I had been with the company for 20 years, but really it had changed around me from Altus to Aetna to, to ING and, and then Voya. And so I was ready for a change. I, I said that to myself that if I left, it would not be for another insurance or bank owned asset manager. And no disrespect to those, those businesses, I had terrific experiences and opportunities presented to me there, but I just felt that, you know, a a a new experience, maybe going back to something more independent or private would, would be the, would be the move for me.

00:16:57 But I got the call and from a recruiter, and Jenison was an intriguing company to me. It’s, you know, just well-known quality firm, strong results, impressive client roster. And I’d heard it had a great culture. So I, I was intrigued and, and, and agreed to have, have some meetings and, and really, really got quite interested in, in, in the business. I thought the people were, were outstanding that I met. They, they validated the culture, the client list and roster truly was impressive. What, you know, what I had to get my head around is that it, it was owned by an insurance company, however, part of p GM’s multi boutique model, and that was, that was very appealing to me. I think for this stage of the asset management industry, a multi boutique model is a, is a good model. You get the asset class specialization, you get the entrepreneurialism in the boutique, but you get the benefit of being part of a larger manager that has access to wealth management platforms, capital, global distribution. So it, it seemed like a very good business model that that allowed for sort of the best of both worlds and, and, you know, I was therefore attracted to it and, and really have not regretted the move one bit.

00:18:19 [Speaker Changed] Hmm. Really interesting. Talk a little bit about Jenison. You mentioned they had been around a while, 1969, they’ve been around for, let’s call it 50 plus almost 60 years. What sort of traditions and cultures made that longevity so attractive to you?

00:18:39 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, it, it was, it was all around reputation and, and the history is that, that Jenison founded in 1969 was really one of the first independent institutional asset managers in those days. All the institutional asset management was done out of the banks. And there were seven founders who decided that maybe they could do it better. And they, they left their banks and they set up a business in the, in the Drake hotel in, in New York City. And they started to, they started to invest. They, they ultimately were growth investors, but growth investing was not even known at the time. You know, the Russell 1000 growth didn’t even exist, but the team started investing in what they believed to be the fastest growing companies, the disruptors of the time, and really became, therefore one of the earliest true growth investors and the founder that, that, that survived the, the, you know, almost the entirety of, of the business and, and was there when I arrived was Sig Sal, who was an iconic investor, again, really one of the first dedicated growth investors.

00:19:43 He was an incredible investor, but also an incredible man. He worked right up until he passed two years ago at 89 Wow. Liter, literally until the week before. He was never going to retire. He, you know, he, he was someone who who taught me a lot. He taught the firm a lot, but at the end of the day, he was an, an intense competitor who wanted to win, but he was very values based. Everything was about the client and, and about values. And he had a great saying, which was do what’s right for clients and that’ll always be right for the business. And I think those are pretty, pretty sage words. And if, if you’re serving your clients well, you’re gonna both retain and, and get, get new clients. And in, and in fact, if you look at our, you know, our client roster, two thirds of our clients have been with us for more than 10 years and 40% more than 20 years. Wow.

00:20:35 [Speaker Changed] That, that’s pretty substantial. I’m kind of intrigued by the concept, and I, I mean, I was a kid in 1969, I think I was seven or eight years old, but the idea that growth investing was like a novel concept. I get the, the idea that, hey, this was kind of the early days of a bear market that that went on for another decade. But tell us, what does it mean to be growth oriented investors when there’s no such thing as a typical growth index or a value index? 00:21:13 [Speaker Changed] You know, what growth investing has meant for Jenison, and it is, it is the original legacy and, and original book of business for the firm we’ve extended from there. But growth investing for us has really been about high conviction, deep fundamental research driven, active manage management. And you know, we’re a, we’re a concentrated manager. We take, we take large positions in, in, in concentrated portfolios, and we’re really striving to be that high alpha equity manager for, for pension plans and for wealth allocators. And often we’re part of an asset allocation and, you know, we’re, you know, we’re the alpha in the corners, if you will. And, you know, I think that’s the right place to play as a fundamental active equity manager because the hollow’s been middled because the middle has been hollowed out. And, you know, at the end of the day, no, no one’s gonna pay active management fees for two to three tracking error equity.

00:22:10 [Speaker Changed] Huh, that makes a lot of sense. So I, I gotta ask two questions about concentration and deep conviction. First, what is a concentrated portfolio? I, I’ve seen a lot of people describe themselves as concentrated portfolios and their 50, 60, a hundred holdings. It doesn’t really seem concentrated. What does concentrated mean to you?

00:22:32 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, for us, 50 60 would be the largest portfolios that, that we manage in our, in our growth book of business. We do have down in our small cap and SMID cap of book of business. We do have larger holdings down there just to get some more liquidity and diversification. But for our, our core franchise of, of growth portfolios, you know, we have 10 stock portfolios, we have 20 stock portfolios. When we say something’s focused, it tends to be about 30. And, and for us, you know, flagship might be up to 50, but not, not typically more than that.

00:23:07 [Speaker Changed] And so when you say deep conviction, what does deep conviction mean? Is that what leads to these 10 stock or 20 stock concentrated portfolios? Tell us a little bit of what does deep conviction mean?

00:23:20 [Speaker Changed] Well, I think it starts with our, our investment research. You know, we’re a firm of 400 people, 70 investment professionals, about half PMs and half analysts. They have very long tenures with, with the firm, about 30 years of experience in the industry, more than 15 on average with the firm. And, you know, they are doing very deep research by teams. So every team, our, our large cap growth team, our global growth team, our small SMID mid team, our value team and our fixed income team all have dedicated research analysts. So there’s no central research model, there’s no house view, there’s no, you know, mandated approach to seeking Alpha. Every team has the, has the ability to seek alpha in its own way. And what we have are very long tenured experienced career analysts. So our analysts and our firm are as important as our portfolio managers.

00:24:18 It’s not necessarily as track to portfolio management. In fact, we believe, you know, the real secret sauce to, to Jenison is the research that, that we do and what the teams do. And on the growth side, at, at the end of the day, what we’re looking for is innovative and disruptive businesses driving structural shifts in industries, you know, business models with, with significant barriers to entry, secular demand trends driven by superior product offerings. And these days, you know, as you know, that might be EVs, autonomous driving, machine learning, obesity, drugs or luxury that’s owned through the value chain. And all of those tend to be superior growers. They tend to have moats around them and, and are the, the leaders and the disruptors. And, and you know, as you know, Barry history has shown that market returns over time have been driven by a narrow set of disruptors and consistent winners. And Jenison has developed a reputation for identifying those companies.

00:25:18 [Speaker Changed] So the past 15 years, those innovators, disruptors, companies with moats have primarily been US based. Right. And we see the rest of the world, Asia, Japan, Europe primarily lagging the us although there seems to be a lot of signs these days that that’s starting to change. Certainly Q1, 2025 Europe is dramatically outperforming the us. How do you think about the relationship between US investing and international investing? I know only about 10 or 15% of your assets are invested overseas. What, what would it take to make that change?

00:26:03 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. In terms of our, our portfolios that are invested overseas, and then I’ll, and then I’ll answer your question about how do I think about international versus US markets. We have a, a about 25 billion of dedicated international and global portfolios. But within our other equity portfolios across the firm, we do hold a percentage of international assets. So that, that number ultimately is about 40 billion of our 150 billion of equity. So it is a, a little larger than it, than it may, may appear. Gotcha. And you know, at the end of the day, un unless we have investment guidelines or restrictions from clients, you know, we seek alpha with a bit of ag agnosticism to both the benchmark and the region. So we are building portfolios, bottoms up, company by company and looking for what we, you know, view are the best companies for our strategy, whether that be intrinsic value.

00:26:57 And, you know, what we think are, are undervalued companies or the disruptors and, and the growers in terms of international holdings, per se, as you mentioned, the, the first quarter after a long drought of underperformance compared to the US international equities have had a, had a nice run. You know, it’s primarily driven by policy shifts locally in some of those regions as well as reactions to current US policy shifts and the uncertainty around that. So in Asia, you know, the, the government is clearly priming the pump in, in Europe, increased defense spending has, has really ignited, ignited the, the markets over there. And so I think the international markets might have some legs. We do still favor the us you know, in in the medium term and, and longer term right now. But, but certainly international markets after being beaten down for, for years have have come back strongly.

00:27:56 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk a little bit about risk management. I know you guys employ the traditional sector, diversification, geographic diversification, different strategies. But talk a little bit about your risk management and the downside protection you deploy to make sure that volatility like we’ve been seeing doesn’t hit the bottom line too hard.

00:28:19 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, and, and you know, as we discussed Barry, we, we are concentrated managers, high conviction managers, so, you know, we’re paid to take risk and as a result, our portfolios do tend to be more volatile than the benchmarks certainly, and, and many other managers who are more diversified. So, you know, we will have periods where we wildly outperform the benchmark and periods where we underperform the benchmark, we’re looking typically at a holding period in our names of, you know, three to five years and much longer. And so, you know, we are long-term investors. We, we wanna align interests with our clients who are long-term investors and try to filter out the quarter to quarter noise and the volatility that that comes in, in between those periods. So again, if we can identify those companies early that are gonna be the longer term winners, that’s, that’s where we go from a risk perspective. What we want to protect against is unintended risk. So we are taking very deliberate and, and concentrated risk, but we have every kind of risk management report that you would expect in an asset manager to make sure we don’t have unintended risks to check our dispersion and to make sure that at the end of the day, the risks we’re taking our stock selection risk and not unintended risk around, you know, size, geography, sector.

00:29:41 [Speaker Changed] So I don’t usually hear the phrase unintended risk. So I, I certainly understand the risk of performance relative to a benchmark. You’re gonna over underperform, you’re gonna outperform. What are some other unintended risks? Is it strictly just sector concentration, a geographic concentration, or is there a little more nuance to it?

00:30:03 [Speaker Changed] We wanna make sure at the, at the end of the day that the risk we’re taking is, is stock specific. That’s, that’s who we are on the equity side. We are, we are stock pickers. And so we wanna make sure that, you know, what’s, what’s coming through our portfolio from a risk perspective is all based on stock selection and not some of the more factor based influences that can, that can take shape in portfolios. And as you mentioned, you know, sector and geography and, and, and other exposures. Hmm.

00:30:34 [Speaker Changed] Really interesting. So, so given that PGIM is the parent company and they run a a, a sort of multi boutique, multi-strategy approach, how does your concentrated alpha approach to investing fit in are, do you have to think about, well maybe this group or that group is doing something sep similar or do you do your thing and it’s up to the parent company to select the allocation they want?

00:31:04 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, the great thing about the multi-manager model at PG Im is each of the affiliates, as we call them versus boutiques, are free to, to pursue their asset class and their specialty in their own way. Now, to the extent that there are multi-asset portfolios put together, you know, within PGIM that might select components of the different affiliates or boutiques, you know, that’ll be determined by the multi-asset team doing the asset allocation. You know, for, for Jenison given, you know, the high highly concentrated, you know, nature of our, of our equity portfolios, we fit into some of those multi-asset products, but in other cases we don’t. We’re too high octane for that. But we are in a number of annuity and, and other asset allocation products throughout Prudential that, that avail themselves of, of our various capabilities. And the other thing that, that, that Jenison can do is we have a small quantitative equity team, not to be confused with PGIM quantitative services, which is a, a sister company. 00:32:13 Our team is there to customize our fundamental alpha from our equity portfolios. So if a client is looking for a targeted tracking error, a targeted volatility, you know, likes what we do, but maybe can’t quite, you know, take, take the tracking error of volatility, we can manipulate the portfolio to fit within their requirements. They might be someone who wants a sustainable portfolio and, and, you know, has some exclusions or types of industries they, they don’t want to include. So having this little quant group within Jenison to customize our, our outcomes for our clients has, has been a, a, a terrific addition of value that has allowed us to get into some of these multi-asset products. The other great thing about the the PGM multi-manager model that I’ll comment on is that we have virtually no overlap among the different affiliates or boutiques. So Jenison is the, is the fundamental active equity manager, you know, PGM quantitative services is the quant manager, PGM fixed income has, you know, broad based fixed income capabilities. We have private real estate, private credit, et cetera. And we’re not fighting with each other over shelf space in different products because we’re all experts in, in what we do 00:33:29 [Speaker Changed] Now, it’s taken me about 10 years to stop saying Prudential and start saying p Im, you did mention Prudential. When you think about the parent company, it traces back to Prudential Insurance, which is still a giant brand. How does the relationship between Genesis, how does the relationship between Gene and p IM and PE Prudential just affect the nomenclature? It’s a lot of stuff to keep, keep straight.

00:33:58 [Speaker Changed] It is, you have, you have the master brand of Prudential 150 years. You have the PE GM brand of a little over a decade old, and then you have the brands underneath Jenison at, at 55 years being the oldest of, of, of the investment management brands. It’s also why Jenison tends to be the most independent of the, of the affiliates or boutiques. It was an acquired business, about 75% of the assets were sourced by Jenison versus assets that, that have come through some of the Prudential or or PGM channels. But, you know, we do, you know, we do have to be careful about the branding and sometimes it’s at the product level. For example, PGM runs a lot of the, you know, the, the consolidated platforms like the, the mutual fund platform. And in Europe, the, the, the USIP platform that, that are, you know, used to, to structure the funds that are sold into the wealth management channels. And there, for example, if you wanna buy Jenison in a growth fund through the, through the PGM mutual fund company, it’s the PGM Jenison Growth Fund. Huh. So sometimes we have multiple brands at play.

00:35:13 [Speaker Changed] Huh, really interesting. So let’s talk a little bit about the current environment. It certainly has been a chaotic first quarter with tariffs on and off. Again, you guys are deep fundamental investors. How do you think about news flow and all this noisy stuff? When you’re looking at the fundamentals of companies?

00:35:39 [Speaker Changed] It’s, it’s hard to do, but it, it really comes down to, to focus. At the end of the day, we have to try to filter out the noise. Now we can’t, we’re we’re not macro investors, but we have to be macro aware. We have to understand if policy shifts or, you know, anything in the macro environment will ultimately affect the environment in which our companies operate. So we, we always bring it back to the fundamentals. You know, we can’t put blinders on and say this is a great company, but if, if the landscape in which they operate changes, it can affect the fundamentals of the company. So, you know, we work very hard to try to separate the, you know, the noise from the fundamentals. But at the end of the day, sometimes that that macro environment can affect the fundamentals.

00:36:24 [Speaker Changed] So when it starts affecting the fundamentals, how, how do you manage it? I’m assuming since you’re the alpha managers, you don’t have an option of saying, we are gonna go to cash or we’re gonna go to bonds. Is it a matter of saying, Hey, Europe seems to be doing better, we’re gonna rotate shift some of our exposure from the US to overseas? How, how do you deal with the macro once it starts affecting the fundamentals? 00:36:50 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, it’s, it’s exactly as, as, as you described, we’re, we’re paid to invest in a certain strategy for a client. So we, we hold very little cash just, just for liquidity and trading. We’re, we’re paid to be fully invested. And so, you know, as we see either a sector or a supply chain or a company’s fundamentals coming under pressure will, will either underweight or, or get out of the, the company completely and look for the next best opportunity.

00:37:16 [Speaker Changed] Really kind of interesting. You had a piece recently at Jenison titled is Value Investing Debt. Tell us a little bit about that.

00:37:26 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, well, well, growth index indexes have, have certainly outperformed value for, for well over a decade. I think we’re all aware of that. That’s, that’s been good for Jenison. Two thirds of our equity assets are, are growth oriented assets and, and we’ve, we’ve benefited during this period and also outperformed and, and, and raised money in new clients. So, you know, a lot of that has been, has been a great tailwind for our business. But we also have a, a high performing value team that’s, that’s put up some very good numbers. The way we, the way we manage in, in value is, is called an intrinsic value approach, which is very opportunistic. It’s not deep value or a fallen angel type strategy. We look for companies with temporarily depressed earnings versus a permanent situation. We try to identify those and periods of short-term volatility can actually favor our approach if we can, if we can decipher, you know, which companies have hit an inflection point and get into those early and hold them long term. Now the market has broadened out recently from the Mag seven and some of the, you know, the, the most concentrated positions that have, that have led the market and, and we’re being rewarded, you know, for executing in, in the value space. There’s still good companies and good growth in value. I don’t think investors really think about growth versus value investing like they used to. I think they think about it as portions of the portfolio stable growers maybe with dividends versus innovators and disruptors that, that might lead the way in the future.

00:39:03 [Speaker Changed] Huh. That’s really, that’s really kind of interesting. It, it’s funny because you, you were talking about your approach to intrinsic value and I would imagine that as the Mag seven and traditional growth equity falters, the volatility of this market would be great for an opportunistic intrinsic value investor. Tell us how the value guys are salivating these days over, over what the state of markets are with volatility spiking up close to 30.

00:39:40 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I think volatility actually can be good on the growth side as well. So I think, oh really, I think when you’re a a fundamental stock picker, you, you want number one as, as little correlation as possible. If everything goes up, it’s hard to differentiate yourself when markets broaden out. You know, when, when volatility is, is, is elevated, you know, it really, you really have to have skill to, to differentiate and to separate the noise, you know, from the fundamentals of the company. And so we think we can benefit in these periods both on the, the value and the growth side. Certainly, you know, on the growth side has pulled back most recently in, in the first quarter, you’re, you’re starting to see that shift back already. It appears that mid-March was perhaps the, you know, the, the, you know, the bottom and we seem to be, you know, starting to bounce off of that. I, I for one, don’t, don’t see a recession on the horizon at at least not a, not a severe one. So I think we will continue to see as, as you know, we filter through the noise, we learn that tariffs may be a little more targeted and forgiven in some instances that the supply chains don’t get as disrupted as, as we thought. And we could see a, a good period for, for growth equity again.

00:41:05 [Speaker Changed] So you have large cap growth equity as a focus, you have global equity opportunity. What are some of the other areas where, where you guys focus in terms of looking for alpha?

00:41:19 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, growth, growth equity as, as we’ve talked about was the foundation of the firm and, and the largest book of assets about half the assets of the firm. We have a, a global growth team that, that was built and extended off of that getting into global international and emerging market equity. Also following a a growth style and and philosophy. That team leverages a lot of the same research of our growth analysts. Then we have a, a small smid mid cap team. They’re a little more val growth managers, but a little more valuation sensitive there. And we offer that in, in sort of growth and core portfolios. Our value team, we talked about our intrinsic value capabilities, but you know, on the value side, we, we also have certain sector funds, infrastructure, utilities, energy and, and other things. And, and including some of some strategies that are in demand in Europe, like carbon solution strategy.

00:42:23 That’s a sort of a brown to green strategy, if you will. And then we have our $50 billion fixed income shop based up in Boston. They are really the antithesis of what we do in, in, in high conviction focused, concentrated equity. They are a high, high quality credit shop staying in, in, you know, the higher end of the space there, down the fairway core fixed income manager managing for the largest pension plans in in the world and also in stable value and LDI mandates. So it’s also a nice diversifier for the business. We have this very stable, you know, core credit manager and this high conviction, high alpha equity manager.

00:43:11 [Speaker Changed] So given that there seems to be a consensus at your shop of higher for longer, at least when it comes to rates, since you brought up fixed income and you brought up credit, does this allow your clients to say, Hey, we could take a little off the table with equity and focus a little more on, on stable fixed income. How, how, how does that balance work?

00:43:34 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, we’ve seen that over the last several years as, as, as rates ticked up and there was something to earn in fixed income. Again, we, we watch pension plans, you know, adjust their, their asset allocations. You know, one of the double-edged swords of of of being a high performing equity manager is when the equity markets run up and you outperform the benchmark you get allocated against, you’re the one they take the money away from. So, you know, we’ve, we’ve had that happen and, and have been a victim of our success, if you will, in some of these areas. So we have seen that over the last couple of years as rates ticked up where we did see some of our clients, you know, maintain us, but but shift some of 00:44:14 [Speaker Changed] That to sort of rebalance, rebalance from alpha generating concentrated equity into more stable, lower yielding fixed income.

00:44:23 [Speaker Changed] Exactly. Exactly. I mean, we, we do, you know, I’m not one to, to call rates per se, but you know, I I I agree with the base case out there that we’ll probably see two cuts, hopefully they’re, you know, they’re for the right reasons and not bad news cuts, if you will.

00:44:39 [Speaker Changed] So, so that’s interesting you say that because originally last year, wall Street was looking for a lot more cuts than we got and the, the sort of pushback to the expectation was, hey, the economy’s really robust, consumers are spending, companies are hiring CapEx, spending is up, revenue and profits are up. What, why are you guys expecting cuts? How does that transition now where, you know, I’m in your camp, I don’t really see an imminent recession, but at the same time it, it certainly appears that recession risks are ticking up. They’re still relatively low, but they’re appreciably higher than they were at the end of, of 2024. So if we’re gonna get two cuts, is that because the Fed wants to normalize rates to where they’ve been over the past 20, 25 years as as inflation sort of settles down? Or are we gonna see cuts because the economy is beginning to slow?

00:45:42 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I, I agree with you completely. I, I, I hope it’s the former and, and, and not the latter. We are starting to see some signs of some potential slowing of growth. I do think we could see growth slow down from what it’s been, but,

00:45:56 [Speaker Changed] And it’s been red hot and it’s been for a good

00:45:58 [Speaker Changed] Couple of years and it’s been red hot. You know, there’s still some good signs out there. Housing starts are up, services, PMI is up, you know, retail sales and manufacturing are down, consumer sentiment’s down the income and labor markets importantly are still, are still decent. I think that’ll be a major determinant of, of where we go. Inflation is stubborn, but it’s, it’s showing signs of coming down in key areas, tariffs not withstanding. And, you know, I think the tariff path will, will determine a lot of where we go here.

00:46:29 [Speaker Changed] So it, it sounds like you guys stick to your knitting, you do fundamental research, you focus on intrinsic value, but you’re certainly aware that hey, what’s going on in the rest of the world, it could have an impact and bleed over. If you are advising pension funds or foundations that have a perpetual lifespan, or at least future liabilities that are decades off, is the best advice, Hey, it’s gonna get bumpy for a while, but you have to look past this, look to the other side of whatever happens over the next 1, 2, 4 years. Or is it everybody man, their battle stations?

00:47:10 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I, I I think keeping a long-term focus is good advice, you know, for, for the pension plans who obviously have teams of experts, you know, focused on their asset allocation, but also for the retail investor who, who obviously has the financial advisor as well. But you know, as you know, Barry, staying invested is key. When people try to time the markets and, and exit, you know, they, they’ve, they’ve always regretted that, you know, being in the market during those key points of inflection when, when markets tick up or missing that that last, that last large spike, you know, really can have a, a dramatically negative impact on your returns overall.

00:47:55 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, we, we’ve seen a lot of studies that show the worst days and the best days tend to come clustered together and it’s very hard to miss one and, and catch the other.

00:48:04 [Speaker Changed] Absolutely.

00:48:04 [Speaker Changed] So I know I only have you for a, a limited amount of time. Let’s jump to our favorite questions that we ask all of our guests. Starting with what’s keeping you entertained these days? What are you either watching or listening to? What, what’s your, tell us about your favorite podcast, Netflix, whatever,

00:48:25 [Speaker Changed] You know, I’m always well behind where, where everyone else is. I didn’t watch the first episode of The Sopranos until, until the series was over. Oh

00:48:33 [Speaker Changed] Really?

00:48:34 [Speaker Changed] And I’m just starting Yellowstone. So that, that tells you how, how up to date

00:48:39 [Speaker Changed] I, you’re ahead of me in Yellowstone. It’s the next one up in my queue. Are you enjoying it?

00:48:45 [Speaker Changed] I just started it so, so far so good. I’ve heard so many great things about it. So I’m, I’m looking forward to it. I’m, I’m a bit of a history buff, so I’ve been working my way through the Ken Burns documentaries. I’ve seen the Brooklyn Bridge, the Statue of Liberty, the Civil War, the Vietnam War, and the Great War. And the next one up for me is Benjamin Franklin. So I really enjoy Ken Burns and, and how he approaches, you know, the the documentary,

00:49:13 [Speaker Changed] Huh. Really interesting. You, you mentioned one of your mentors previously. Tell us about the folks who helped shape your career. Who, who were your mentors?

00:49:24 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I would say first, you know, it, it, it, it was my mother from a, a values and from a work ethic perspective, first generation college grad, went to, got a master’s at Georgetown, worked in politics, ran some nonprofits, and then ultimately worked in, in in education. She’s, she’s 90 years old and, and still alive and, and doing well. And, and you know, she’s been a great inspiration to me. Again, from a, from a values and and work ethic perspective. I’ve also had the, the, the great opportunity to, to work for some great leaders and, and managers. I tried to learn from each one of them along the way, take the, the, the styles or the characteristics that I most admired of each of them and try to incorporate that into my leadership style. At, at, at Altas, it was John Kim and Scott Fox at, at, you know, Bob Crispin, Rob Leary at at ING and then Alon, Kara Lin at, at Voya to name a few Sig Segal, who, who I mentioned past about two years ago.

00:50:26 I worked with him, him for only about six years. And while, you know, he wasn’t necessarily a mentor in the sense of helping me do my job, which was terrific. When, when, when I came on board, SIG said, I I manage the money, you manage the firm. And he, he kept his word there and allowed me to do what, what, you know, we felt we needed to do to help grow the business and set the strategy. And it was a, it was a terrific partnership and, and I have great admiration for him. So he was more an inspiration to me, just the, you know, his will to win and, and the way he impacted everyone around him and the quality and the values of the firm that he built. Really inspirational. Hmm.

00:51:06 [Speaker Changed] Real, really interesting. Let’s talk about books. What are you reading currently? What are some of your favorites?

00:51:13 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, right, right now I just started leadership in Turbulent Times from, from Doris Kearns Goodwin. It seems a little apropos Sure. Right now. And, and you know, it’s a, it’s a book about Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, FDR and, and LBJ. And it kind of, you know, takes you through their, you know, their administrations and, and some of the, the challenges that they faced. You know, it’s a big book. It, it’s sat on my coffee table for a few years and I looked at it and I, you know, I’ve wanted to kind of tap in, but it was four inches high. And, and finally, I, I did tap in and I’m glad I did.

00:51:51 [Speaker Changed] Our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in either investment, credit, finance, anything along the lines of, of your career experiences?

00:52:07 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I, I would say first thing you know, you know, getting into finance, the path to finance starts so much earlier than it ever did. And, and in our day, you know, it was senior year, it was time to look for a job. Maybe you had an internship, you know, the year before, but now undergrads going into finance, they need to be lining up their internships sophomore summer, junior summer, senior summer. So, so it really starts a lot sooner. But once they’re on the job, my, my advice to them is always build a, a resume of skills, not a resume of jobs. Try to, you know, try to develop as many skills as you can along the way and ask questions early and often. You’re not expected to know anything when, when you’re young and in the job, but as, as you move on in your career, you’re expected to know more and it becomes a little harder to, to ask questions and then ask for experiences outside of your current duties.

00:53:04 So if you see something going on in the, in the next department over, ask if you can be exposed to that, you know, while doing your, the job you were hired for and, and try to get more, more exposure. But don’t expect anything to be given to you. You own your career, seek out mentors and, and try to learn, but at the end of the day, you, you have to take ownership of your career and your advancement will really depend on the success of your current role. And if you focus on that and, and do it well, you’ll be recognized.

00:53:36 [Speaker Changed] Hmm. Really good, good advice. And our final question, what do you know about the world of investing today? You wish you knew 30, 40 years ago when you were first getting started?

00:53:47 [Speaker Changed] Well, as I mentioned, I didn’t know anything about it 40 years ago when I was getting started coming outta college. But, but in reflecting back, what I, what I think would be helpful would’ve been how many different types of finance careers there actually are. Everyone thinks sort of Wall Street investment banking m and a, but, but there’s investment management, there’s wealth management, there’s insurance, there’s commercial banking, there’s, you know, there’s institutional banking, so many, many careers in in finance in past that, that, that you can go down. I had a very narrow view of, of, of the investment world. And, you know, my journey really, you know, happened because of the next role that I got and the next role that I got. I didn’t have a plan per se. And I think, you know, I wish I knew more earlier on and I might have set a plan. The plan turned out okay and, and I’ve been happy with it. But you know, who knows what the path would’ve taken had I known a little more about it. Huh. 00:54:45 [Speaker Changed] Really interesting stuff. Jeff, thank you for being so generous with your time. We have been speaking with Jeff Becker, he’s chairman and CEO of Jenison Associates helping to run the firm that manages well over $200 billion in assets. If you enjoy this conversation, be sure to check out any of the 550 or so we’ve done over the past 11 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, Bloomberg, wherever you find your favorite podcasts. Be sure to check out my new book, how Not to Invest the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth and how to avoid them out Now at your favorite bookseller. I would be remiss if I did not thank the crack team that helps with these conversations together each week. My audio engineer is Steve Gonzalez. Anna Luke is my producer, Sean Russo is my researcher. Sage Bauman is the head of podcasts at Bloomberg. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

~~~

 

 

 

 

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

My morning train WFH reads:

• Trump’s First 100 Days Leaves S&P 500 With Worst Drop Since 1974:  He promised a markets boom. 100 days in, Stocks have only seen damage. (Bloomberg)

Traffic at the Port of Los Angeles set to plunge amid tariffs: Arrivals will drop by 35% as essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased, and cargo coming out of Southeast Asia locations is much softer than normal,” according to Executive Director Gene Seroka for the Los Angeles Board of Harbor Commissioners. (Los Angeles Times). see also Trump’s Tariffs Are Coming for Your Chili Crisp: What will happen to the Chinese grocery store? (The Atlantic) see also Product shortages and empty store shelves loom with falling shipments from China: Businesses have been canceling orders for products from China after Trump imposed a 145% tariff on most Chinese imports, risking product shortages for American consumers. (NBC)

A Reckoning for the Magnificent Seven Tests the Market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla are collectively off to their worst start since the 2022 slide, worrying investors… even after a rally this past week, the Magnificent Seven are off to their worst start to a year since the 2022 slide… Each stock has fallen more than 6.5%, and they have collectively lost $2.5 trillion in market value.” • (Wall Street Journal)

Who Will Be the Next Larry Fink? Fidelity and GSAM are among the managers using an emerging approach to active that could be as disruptive as BlackRock’s deal for iShares. (Institutional Investor)

Star Stock Pickers Must Now Beat Their Clones: Investors today can pick low-cost ETFs that follow the strategies of successful fund managers such as Will Danoff. (Bloomberg)

The bubble that created Trump is the reason he’s stumbling: The White House is now a bubble where loyalty, not ability, defines success. (Washington Post)

Apartments for Rent in a Former Office, but You Have to Live in Midtown: The developer behind transforming Pfizer’s former headquarters in Midtown Manhattan into about 1,600 apartments is hoping young people won’t care about the area’s lack of a neighborhood. (New York Times)

How to have friends past age 30: A quick and simple guide. Individual friendships are great. But most people don’t just want one-on-one interactions — we want a gang of friends who all hang out together.  (Noahpinion)

Which cities have the most trees? See how yours stacks up. Why some U.S. cities are so much greener than others. (Washington Post)

• Damian Lillard’s Cruel Injury Spells the End for the Bucks—and Giannis: A devastating injury has boxed Milwaukee into an unenviable corner. As painful as it might be, the writing is on the wall. It’s time to trade Giannis Antetokounmpo this summer. (The Ringer)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jeff Becker, Chairman and CEO of Jennison Associates (a division of PGIM). The firm was founded in 1969. Prior to joining Jennison in 2016 as CEO, Becker was CEO of Voya Investment Management.

 

Trump Promised a Markets Boom. 100 Days In, Stocks Have Only Seen Damage.

Source: Bloomberg

 

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A Spectacularly Underappreciated 15 Years

 

 

We have no idea how good we had it.

Let’s consider the returns data from the period post-Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and then unpack what it might mean.

Starting January 1, 2010, the S&P 500 generated a total return (with dividends reinvested) of 566.8%, or 13.3% per year from the start of 2010 through the end of Q1 2025. The Nasdaq 100 has nearly doubled that. (Chart above is from March 2009, but that’s cheating)

Compare this to the average 15-year return periods over the past century, which generated ~8.7%. Average annual returns over the past century have been about 10.4%.

Using rolling 15-year period returns, we see how atypical this era has been. The only two better eras were the immediate aftermath of World War II through May 1957 (about 18% annualized) and the tech boom in the 1980s and 90s, 15 years peaking in April 1999 (around 17% annualized). This current 15-year peak was through February 2024 at ~16%.

Over the entirety of the post-GFC era, we have been averaging a third more than the typical annual returns since 1925, and nearly double the average 15-year stretch.

And that spectacular run of post-financial crisis returns have come with only a few minor setbacks:

-Flash Crash in 2010.

-2015 gain of “only” 1.4%

-2018 drop of 4.4%, including a Q4 drop of nearly 20%.

-Q1 2020 down 34% in the pandemic.

-2022 down 18% for the year.4

The full table of gains since the GFC looks like this:


Table via Slickcharts

~~~

Main Street has now become a regular “BTFD” player. This is a direct result of muscle memory – a Recency Effect impact driven by 15 years of market gains. What has developed over the entirety of the post-financial crisis era of rising equity markets and until 2022, falling or zero interest rates. The good news is that this is how you build wealth over the long haul. Nick Maggiulli’s book “Just Keep Buying” makes this case very persuasively.

When we talk about muscle memory, what we are really discussing are habits for which we have been continuously rewarded. What breaks that prior habit depends upon how we change our behaviors in response to that punishment and reward.

Recall what happened during prior changes in market regimes.5 In the 1980s and 90s, dip buyers had been rewarded, despite the 1987 crash (the ultimate 22% dip!), the 1990 near-recession, a presidential impeachment, the Thai Baht crisis, the Russian Ruble default, Long-Term Capital Management collapse, and more.

For two decades, every dip purchase was soon rewarded.

It takes a while to change behavior. Look at the dotcom implosion (and the September 11 terrorist attacks).  From March 2000 to the double lows October 2002 and March 2003, the Nasdaq 100 fell 82.9% (peak to trough). That was not a straight line down…

 

~~~

 

We may have had it too good for too long – even though it didn’t feel that way. In October 2009, I called the move off the lows “The Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History.” In seven months, the S&P 500 had moved 57.5% from the bottom, and the Nasdaq 100 had gained 64.6%.

History informs us that when US markets get slashed by 56%, it creates a very advantageous entry point into equities for fresh capital. The recency effect challenges us to overcome the psychological stresses caused by a fresh, memorable crash. People fought the rally the entire way up, and continued so for years. “Financial Repression” was the rallying cry for underperforming managers.

Over the ensuing 16 years, the crowd may have forgotten that pain. Any single day where markets rally 12.5% is not what risk managers call a rational trading day.

What has developed over the past decade and a half is simply that BTFD has worked like a charm. Perhaps, it has worked too well. The risk is that if and when the trend changes, people may be slow to adapt.

People hated the rising stock market in the early 2010s. The present concern is that, thanks to the Recency Effect, they no longer hate it enough…

 

 

 

 

Previously:
The Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History (October 8, 2009)

 

 

 

___________

1. Data from Nick Magiulli’s return calculator.

2. If we wanted to cherry pick the data, we could start with the March 2009 end of the GFC, and the returns would be much higher, or date it from the pre-GFC peak in October 2007, and make the returns lower.

3. See also Lazy Portfolios rolling returns.

4. Plus bonds down 15% – the first double-digit drop for both asset classes in 4 decades.

5. I am not necessarily claiming a regime change is upon us; rather, it is a reminder of what happens when secular trends in markets reverse.

 

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10 Monday AM Reads

My back-to-work morning train reads:

The End of the South Florida Dream: A similar phenomenon is taking place across all of South Florida, where a majority of the state’s aging condos are concentrated. Over the past few months, condo listings have shot up in the region as owners fear being unable to meet rising fees, flooding the market with inventory that is struggling to find interested buyers. (Newsweek)

Tax and Tariff Fears Have Rocked Municipal Bonds. Why They’re Still Appealing. Many long-term munis now look like bargains. How to get tax-equivalent yields of up to 8%. Tax and Tariff Fears Have Rocked Municipal Bonds. Why They’re Still Appealing. (Barron’s) see also Swiss franc surge sparks bets on return to negative interest rates Switzerland’s currency has soared as investors seek a haven from US President Donald Trump’s trade war. (Financial Times)

Is Trump Is Making the Next Fed Chair’s Job Harder? Trump Says Powell is a Loser. The Real Loser Might Be Trump’s Pick for the Next Fed Chair. (Wall Street Journal)

Go Delete Yourself From the Internet. Seriously, Here’s How. Find your data, request removal…and repeat. (Wall Street Journal)

Your iPhone is a target for thieves. Do this to help protect your data. Do this to help protect your data. A bit of due diligence could help prevent months — or more — of digital heartbreak (Washington Post) see also How to Protect Yourself From Phone Searches at the US Border: Customs and Border Protection has broad authority to search travelers’ devices when they cross into the United States. Here’s what you can do to protect your digital life while at the US border. (Wired)

These Maps Show Federal Employees Work in Every Corner of America. They show employees based in every state and in thousands of cities and small towns across the country, far beyond Washington, D.C. (New York Times)

The Creativity Hack No One Told You About: Read the Obits. Reading obituaries can boost creativity by exposing you to distant ideas, fueling the associations that lead to unexpected breakthroughs. (MIT Press Reader)

How the Radical Right Captured the Culture: Blame Hollywood’s “unwokening” and the extraordinary rise of right-wing podcasters on slop: intellectually bereft, emotionally sterile content that’s shaped by data and optimized for clicks. (New Republic) but see They Criticized Musk on X. Then Their Reach Collapsed. Anastasia Maria Loupis runs a popular account on X that used to receive hundreds of thousands of views each day for her far-right commentary, conspiracy theories and antisemitic statements.In late December, she criticized Elon Musk, the site’s owner, over his support for visa programs that many of President Trump’s supporters despise.Her reach plummeted on X and never recovered. (New York Times)

Half of the universe’s hydrogen gas, long unaccounted for, has been found: New measurements of the diffuse ionized hydrogen surrounding galaxies account for missing mass. (UC Berkeley News)

Jon Hamm Finds His Way Back to the Hilltop: For the actor, the decade since “Mad Men” ended has been a period of personal change and mixed professional success. Suddenly, he is everywhere again. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jeff Becker, Chairman and CEO of Jennison Associates (a division of PGIM). The firm was founded in 1969. Prior to joining Jennison in 2016 as CEO, Becker was CEO of Voya Investment Management.

 

Cross-section of global total returns in Dollar and local currency terms

Source: Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank

 

 

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Barron’s: Embrace Your Inner Mr. Spock

Trump Tariffs Are Creating Chaos. Barry Ritholtz Says It’s Time to Embrace Your Inner Mr. Spock.
The chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management says his worst-case scenario for the trade war
is bleak but investors still need to avoid acting based on emotion.
By Andrew Welsch
Barron’s, April 25, 2025

 

 

I just did an interview with Andrew Welsch of Barron’s, discussing how investors should approach managing their portfolios. The topic: What changes should make in light of new policies and tariffs. And of course, the new book)

Here’s Barron’s:

“President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again approach to tariffs has whipsawed markets and left investors struggling to keep their footing. That makes Barry Ritholtz’s new book, How Not to Invest, a timely read because it urges investors to maintain a long-term perspective. “There’s always a reason to think the world is going to hell,” says the co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer of New York-based Ritholtz Wealth Management. “Investors have to ask themselves the question: Is it really worse today than it was during the financial crisis, the pandemic, or 9/11?”

That is not to say Ritholtz, whose firm now manages $5.7 billion in assets, is sanguine about the potential consequences of tariffs. Far from it. In his worst case scenario, they could set back the U.S. economy significantly. Yet in an interview conducted April 22, Ritholtz says investors need to remain calm and emulate Mr. Spock, the unemotional, logical Star Trek character: “Don’t let emotions and the fire hose of information dictate your investing.”

Most of the time, neither tail happens. You tend to end up in the fat part of the bell curve. So, the rest of the world is on notice: You can’t trust the U.S. to do the right thing. And maybe we don’t implement the worst aspects of this. Maybe there is a mild recession, and that scares everyone, and they walk most of this back.”

Fun stuff!

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10 Sunday Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

How Texas Officials Invited the Rigging of the State Lottery: Texas lottery executives blessed a scheme that ensured one player would win a $95 million jackpot in 2023. The caper has underscored a sense that almost nothing is on the level. (New York Times)

 Zakaria: Destroying 100 years of competitive advantage in 100 days: Cuts to research and attacks on universities are handing global leadership to China. (Washington Post)/ see also Eroding US brand, has made the country 20% poorer, Citadel chief says. Though the president may have identified real problems, his methods to solve them don’t appear to be working, and are unlikely to revive American manufacturing, Griffin told Semafor’s Gina Chon at the World Economy Summit in Washington, DC. (Semafor)

The Worst Job in America: Who would want to be president of an Ivy League school? (The Atlantic)

They Stole a Quarter-Billion in Crypto and Got Caught Within a Month: How luxury cars, $500,000 bar tabs and a mysterious kidnapping attempt helped investigators unravel the heist of a lifetime. (New York Times)

FTC opens the floodgates for tariff profiteering: Have you heard that tariffs are going to drive prices up? Me too. There’s a good reason we’re hearing a lot of talk about tariffs prices: tariffs are a tax that is ultimately paid by consumers. Trump plans to raise $6t in tariffs, making them the largest tax increase in US history: But that $6t is just for starters. If there’s one thing we learned from the pandemic supply-chain shocks, it’s that corporate CEOs never let an emergency go to waste. Bosses, knowing that you’d been warned to expect higher prices, went ahead and jacked up their prices way over inflation, blaming it on covid, on stimulus checks, on Biden, on the phase of the moon. Blaming it on anything – except greed. That’s why we called it “excuseflation” (Pluralistic)

State-By-State, America is Taking on Big Insurance’s Pharmacy Middlemen: While Congress continues to debate the growing power of pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) in the prescription drug supply chain, several state legislatures and attorneys general are no longer waiting. (Health Care un-covered)

The Trade Adviser Who Hates Trade: Once sidelined, President Trump’s counselor Peter Navarro has returned to Washington and quickly upended the global trading system..(New York Times) see also Navarro vs. BMW trade spat has rattled this South Carolina county: Republican leaders here face an awkward predicament: How do they defend the foreign firms propelling the state’s economic growth against the America First president? (Washington Post)

20 verification tools for combating misinformation. Fact-checking sites like Snopes and Google’s Fact Check Explorer, as well as reverse image search engines, identity verification sites, and AI detection tools. While this list is intended for journalists, these resources are useful for anyone who wants to evaluate what they read or find online critically. (Beyond Bylines)

What’s the Matter with Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi? Tech billionaires and iconoclast journalists suddenly see eye to eye. (New Republic)

Why Is Everyone Getting Their Tattoos Removed? For decades, Americans were covering their bodies with more and more tattoos. Now, they’re getting them removed as fast as they can. We speak with the patients going under the laser, the tattoo-removal technicians whose business is booming, and the tattoo artists whose work is being erased to understand how something so permanent became so ephemeral. (GQ)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jeff Becker, Chairman and CEO of Jennison Associates (a division of PGIM).. The firm was founded in 1969. Prior to joining Jennison in 2016 as CEO, Becker was CEO of Voya Investment Management.

Depreciating the Dollar to Grow the Manufacturing Sector?

Source: Apollo

 

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry Organic coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

America Underestimates the Difficulty of Bringing Manufacturing Back: The 14 Reasons Why these Tariffs Will Not Bring Manufacturing Back. (Molson Hart)

How a Funeral Director Brought Wind Power to Rural Missouri: Every year for nearly two decades, the small city of Rock Port has been producing more electricity from wind energy than it needs. (New York Times)

‘It’s Disneyland for preppers’: why apocalypse-minded shoppers go to Costco. A doomsday meal bucket drew attention to something end-timers have known forever: the bulk store is the perfect place for stockpiling. (The Guardian)

The Stock Market’s Casino Problem: Casinos have long known a simple truth: if you want people to gamble more, just add a subtle unpredictability. Just enough to keep people guessing. Make the lights flash. Add a few near-misses. Let them win once in a while so they feel like they’re on the edge of something big. (Safal Niveshak

4chan Is Dead. Its Toxic Legacy Is Everywhere: It’s likely that there will never be a site like 4chan again. But everything now—from X and YouTube to global politics—seems to carry its toxic legacy. (Wired)

Meet the KGB Spies Who Invented Fake News: We reveal how one of the biggest fake news stories ever concocted — the 1984 AIDS-is-a-biological-weapon hoax — went viral in the pre-Internet era. Meet the KGB cons who invented it, and the “truth squad” that quashed it. For a bit. (New York Times)

The pundit’s dilemma: Conservative industrialists, however, are facing a much harder dilemma right now. Biden’s industrial policy was a mixed bag, with more successes than failures. But Trump’s tariff policy is a giant flaming disaster. The dollar is down, as investors flee American bonds, putting the country’s whole financial stability in danger. Forecasts for the real economy are getting more pessimistic by the day. Stocks are down yet again. Here’s a representative headline. (Noahpinion) see also An Autopsy of American Exceptionalism: The strange thing about this turmoil was that much of it was predicated on falsehoods. I remember specifically combatting many of the narratives following the Financial Crisis. While I disagreed with policies like QE and the bank bailouts I also thought that the fear mongering around these ideas was misplaced. The common narrative was that these policies would cause hyperinflation, but as we now know QE did nothing of the sort. That policy has since been thrown in the dustbin and I am proud to have consulted on legislation banning its use and also helping to create a more automated interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve. But its impact lingers to this day. (Pragmatic Capitalism)

• The Architect: Behind Trump’s imperial presidency (and Elon), there’s Russell Vought. The Trump loyalist who’d just been named director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as well as acting director of the CFPB. A self-described “boring budget guy,” he’s best known for co-authoring the 900-page policy playbook of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which has become something of a bible for Trump’s second term. Vought’s think tank, the Center for Renewing America, has produced numerous policy papers that advocate for such Trump fixations as the annexation of Greenland (“a prudent aim,” according to a CRA paper) and enacting broad tariffs (“just as sometimes a nation must go to war with guns and bombs, so sometimes are trade wars necessary”), among others. At the center of Vought’s ideology is the unitary executive theory, which critics say amounts to an argument that Trump should have wide latitude to do whatever he wants. • The Real Mastermind Behind Trump’s Imperial Presidency (Bloomberg)

Why Is Everyone Getting Their Tattoos Removed? For decades, Americans were covering their bodies with more and more tattoos. Now, they’re getting them removed as fast as they can. We speak with the patients going under the laser, the tattoo-removal technicians whose business is booming, and the tattoo artists whose work is being erased to understand how something so permanent became so ephemeral. (GQ)

37 takeaways from 200 hours with Bach: “Year of Bach” snowballed from a tired bit of shtick I shared with my son on a drive to Trader Joe’s, Christmas Eve 2023. It grew into hundreds of hours of rewarding listening and writing. Here are 37 takeaways from my survey of the complete works of J.S. Bach: (Year of Bach)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jeff Becker, Chairman and CEO of Jennison Associates (a division of PGIM). The firm was founded in 1969. Prior to joining Jennison in 2016 as CEO, Becker was CEO of Voya Investment Management.

Technology developments over time vs population

Source: Haim Israel, Merrill Lynch Thematic Investing

 

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MiB: Jeffrey Becker, Jennison Associates Chair/CEO

 

 

This week, I speak with Jeffrey Becker, Chairman and CEO of Jennison Associates.

Prior to joining Jennison in 2016, Jeff served as the CEO of Voya Investment Management, formerly ING. He held various positions with ING including Vice Chairman, Chief Operating Officer, and Chief Financial Officer. He is a member of the Economic Club of New York and also serves as an Advisory Board member of Institutional Investor’s U.S. Institute. Additionally, he is Vice Chair of the AmeriCares Board of Directors, and Chair of the AmeriCares Free Clinics Board of Directors.

We discuss his path through finance, managing risks in today’s environment, and global trends and opportunities.

A list of his current reading is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Sander Gerber, the CEO/CIO of Hudson Bay Capital. The firm is a global multi-strategy private credit and real estate firm based in Greenwich, with offices in NY, Miami, London, Hong Kong, and Dubai. Founded in June 2005 (with Yoav Roth) they manage $20B in client assets.

 


 

 

Current Reading

 

 

 

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10 Friday AM Reads

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

“Smart is good. Smart and lucky is better” It’s better to look stupid and learn than pretend and lose money. Once we know how something ended — a movie, a stock crash — we forget what it felt like to not know the outcome. The real challenge for investors is human behavior. Financial literacy matters, but it fades. (Big Think)

The Gen Z Lifestyle Subsidy: In the 2010s, Millennials got cheap Ubers. Today’s young people are getting free SuperGrok. (The Atlantic)

They Are Hot, Upwardly Mobile Jobs. Here’s Why They Are So Hard to Fill. Some of the fastest-growing careers lie in middle-skill roles like sterilizing surgical tools, yet too few people know about them (Wall Street Journal)

How Gen Z Became the Most Gullible Generation: The almighty algorithm is fueling conspiracy theories among young people and ruining their ability to tell fact from fiction on the internet. (Politico)

Inside Home Depot’s $20 Billion Secret Garden: The retail giant spends years developing plants and flowers. The goal: make shoppers better gardeners—and loyal customers. (Wall Street Journal)

• Can’t Look Away: The Case Against Social Media:  Through emotional testimonies and high-stakes legal battles, the film explores the tension between corporate profit and child safety, highlighting systemic failures that leave young users vulnerable. As families seek justice, Can’t Look Away underscores the urgent need for industry reform and serves as both a wake-up call about the dangers of social media—and a call to action to protect future generations. (Bloomberg) see also The Effect of Deactivating Facebook and Instagram on Users’ Emotional State: We estimate the effect of social media deactivation on users’ emotional state in two large randomized experiments before the 2020 U.S. election. People who deactivated Facebook for the six weeks before the election reported improvement in an index of happiness, depression, and anxiety. (NBER)

These Maps Show Federal Employees Work in Every Corner of America: These maps are based on newly available data from payroll records and offer a glimpse of the federal government’s 2.3 million or so civilian workers in March 2024, before the recent cuts. They show employees based in every state and in thousands of cities and small towns across the country, far beyond Washington, D.C. (New York Times)

Have they been here? When we look for extraterrestrials, we often peer into the depths of space. But alien life might be closer than you think. (Aeon)

How Trump Worship Took Hold in Washington: The President is at the center of a brazenly transactional ecosystem that rewards flattery and lockstep loyalty. (New Yorker)

‘It was a magical chemical balance’: How Monty Python and the Holy Grail became a comedy legend (BBC)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jeff Becker, Chairman and CEO of Jennison Associates (a division of PGIM). The firm was founded in 1969. Prior to joining Jennison in 2016 as CEO, Becker was CEO of Voya Investment Management.

 

Trade Negotiations Take Time

Source: PIIE (Freund and McDaniel), Apollo Chief Economist

 

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Why Macro Forecasting Is So Hard Impossible

 

 

Let us stop for a moment to consider all that is going on with the new administration’s new economic trade policies at ~100 days.

There is a new tariff policy that is (by design) threatening the pre-existing global trade order. This has led to what looks like the early stages of capital flight, as both the dollar and US Treasuries have been sold off. The implications of this are significant. That is before we get to other issues with economic long-term ramifications.1

I have no idea how these policies will play out. My current (wishful) thinking is that this will not be worse than COVID-19 or the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), but less fun than 2023 and 2024 SPX gains of 25%. Maybe that idea will be proven wrong.

Let’s get more granular:

Most of the time, we have a fairly good understanding of the basic building blocks of our world. We all have a routine we go through, getting up each day, getting dressed, going to work or school or whatever, occupies the vast majority of our time. We assume a high probability that today will look like yesterday or tomorrow.

Sometimes, a minor curveball gets thrown our way. You’re driving to an appointment and a road is closed because a storm knocked a tree over or a water main pipe burst. It takes our brains a moment or two to contextualize the disruption, calculate an alternative route, and head on our way. That’s an easy problem to recognize and fix. It is also relatively simple. There are (usually) multiple routes between any two random points, and the map in your brain can easily manage it.

Most problems are like that. Where we run into problems is when there is either only one possible solution, or so many variables as to the potential solutions are nearly infinite.

Centre Island is a lovely neighborhood 6 minutes drive from my house. It has literally one road in and out. Sure, you can swim, paddle board or jetski to and from, but not with the entire fam. If that road is out, you are going to have major issues.

At the other end of the spectrum are things like global trade — large complex interrelated economies, driven by everything from policy to consumer sentiment, geography, innovation, employment, inflation, natural resources, etc. This is why I keep discussing why forecasting market prices or macroeconomic data is so challenging: There are simply too many variables, each dependent and reflective of even more variables, to pretend we truly know what comes next.

Forecasting the NCAA college basket playoffs is much easier than trying to accurately predict the global economy. It did take a decade, but someone kinda won Warren Buffett’s $1 million NCAA Tournament bracket challenge.2 To be fair, they “only” picked 31 of the 32 first-round games correctly. The odds of predicting a perfect bracket are mind boggling:

 

With the NCAA, there are only 64 teams you need to track. There are 195 Countries, 3450 publicly traded U.S. companies, over 50,000 non-U.S. publicly traded firms, millions of CEOs/CFOs, tens of millions of private companies, billions of consumers — all making independent, yet highly interrelated decisions every single day.

Project that out 365 days — what are the odds of getting that correct?

I always try to remember this, especially when I see a pundit telling me what is going to happen next…

You have to be able to pull yourself out of the day-to-day noise and remember why you are putting capital at risk in the markets. The daily news flow, upgrades and downgrades, corporate guidance, and back and forth is not the reason.

Or as John C. Bogle liked to say, “The stock market is a giant distraction from the business of investing.”

 

 

 

 

Previously:
What Are the Best & Worst-Case Tariff Scenarios? (April 15, 2025)

The Consequences of Chaos (April 7, 2025)

7 Increasing Probabilities of Error (February 24, 2025)

Tune Out the Noise (February 20, 2025)

 

 

 

__________

1. e.g., Executive orders on deportation, fighting Universities, threatening law firms, due process, Greenland, and the one that matters a great deal to the financial markets, who is the Federal Reserve Chairman….

2. “In 2014, he launched a $1 billion challenge to any Berkshire Hathaway employee who could correctly predict every single game in the NCAA Tournament. The odds of that are … extremely long. No one was able to claim the prize. Over time, the contest rules shifted. In 2016, the challenge was reportedly amended, offering $1 million to any employee who could predict the first 48 games correctly. Still, no one managed to claim the grand prize. The rules relaxed even further in 2025, as employees had to correctly predict 30 of the first 32 games in order to take home the grand prize, according to the Wall Street Journal.”

 

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10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning train WFH reads:

The White House is killing one of our strongest exports: Higher Education: The president wants to balance U.S. trade deficits? He can’t do it without this industry he hates. (Washington Post)

China Has an Army of Robots on Its Side in the Tariff War: Enormous investments in factory equipment and artificial intelligence are giving China an edge in car manufacturing and other industries. (New York Times) see also Five-Minute EV Charging Is Here, but Not for U.S.-Made Cars: CATL’s and BYD’s rapid-charging technologies underscore China’s dominance in the EV sector, a technological priority for Xi Jinping (Wall Street Journal)

The Things That Make You Money: Holding is the hardest part because it combines all the feelings and potential regrets that can arise from both buying and selling. Howard Marks once wrote, “It’s not the things you buy and sell that make you money; it’s the things you hold.” (A Wealth of Common Sense)

Why Florida’s Condo Owners Are So Desperate to Sell: Insurance increases, special assessments and limited financing options have elevated costs beyond what many can bear (Wall Street Journal)

When Heirs Say ‘No Thanks’ to Art and Collectibles: Cerity Partners’ Natalia Tchetchoulina on the do’s and don’ts of passing those vintage cars, paintings, or jewelry to your heirs. (Barron’s)

Swiss banks are back in style for rich Americans (Thank Trump): Americans worried about volatile U.S. markets and a weakening dollar are looking to diversify their portfolios abroad. (Quartz)

For Greenland’s Minerals, the Harsh Reality Behind the Glittering Promise: There is excitement about the potentially lucrative resources scattered around the island, especially the rare earths. But extreme weather, fired-up environmentalists and other factors have tempered hopes of a bonanza. (New York Times)

Scientists Are Mapping the Bizarre, Chaotic Spacetime Inside Black Holes: By understanding the churning region near singularities, physicists hope they might be able to reconcile gravity and quantum mechanics. (Wired)

• Democrats Should Seize on the Tariff Flop: The economic chaos is giving the opposition party a prime opportunity to push back against autocracy. (Vanity Fair) see also James Carville: How to Turn Trump’s Economic Chaos Against Him: The problem is that smoke and mirrors only work until you screw up so hard that no act of lunacy can pull the American people’s attention elsewhere. And boy, did the president just screw up royally. (New York Times)

Jeff Bridges Just Gave His Blessing To A ‘Big Lebowski’ Theory That Donnie Isn’t Real: It’s one thing to read a fan theory on Reddit. It’s another to hear Jeff Bridges unpack it live, like it’s just something he’s been casually chewing on for years, as The Big Lebowski keeps aging like White Russian-soaked folklore, somehow getting deeper, weirder, and more beloved by Little Achievers like myself every year. (BroBible)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jeff Becker, Chairman and CEO of Jennison Associates (a division of PGIM).
The firm was founded in 1969. Prior to joining Jennison in 2016 as CEO, Becker was CEO of Voya Investment Management.

 

Poll: Americans sour on the economy

Source: Reuters

 

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After Hours (S07 E13): How *Not* to Invest



 

 

In their latest episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Tobias Carlisle, Jake Taylor, and Barry Ritholz discuss:

Barry Ritholtz: From Blogfather to Podcast Pro How Not to Invest: The Making of Barry’s New Book The Belfer Family Tragedy: Enron, Madoff, FTX The Real Cost of Bernie Madoff: It Wasn’t the Money Billion-Dollar Advisors, Underperforming Portfolios Fiduciary Failures and the Problem with Finance Panic Selling, Risk Off, and Behavioral Finance High-Frequency Trading and The Vanguard Effect Jake’s Veggies: Trophic Cascades and Tariff Lessons Tariffs, Trump, and Market Reaction

 

The Book Tour continues…

 

 

Source:
After Hours (S07 E13): How *Not* to Invest with Barry Ritholtz
Johnny Hopkins
Acquirers Multiple, April 21, 2025

 

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