Individual Economists

Gaza War At 200 Days: IDF Pivots From Iran Threat Back To Hamas Operations

Zero Hedge -

Gaza War At 200 Days: IDF Pivots From Iran Threat Back To Hamas Operations

Monday into Tuesday saw the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intensify its operations in central and northern Gaza, following a cooling of tensions with Iran after the two almost went to war. Tuesday marks the 200th day of Israel's war in Gaza, in response to the Oct.7 Hamas terror attacks.

"Israel bombarded northern Gaza overnight in some of the heaviest shelling in weeks, panicking residents and flattening neighborhoods in an area where the Israeli army had previously drawn down its troops, residents said on Tuesday," Reuters reports.

Image via United Nations

This strongly suggests that even once the IDF has cleared an area, Hamas has the capability of moving back in - also given its capabilities utilizing Gaza's vast tunnel network.

"Tanks made a new incursion east of Beit Hanoun on the northern edge of the Gaza Strip, though they did not penetrate far into the city, residents and Hamas media said. Gunfire reached some schools where displaced residents were sheltering," Reuters continues.

Starting Sunday night, the IDF launched a 'surprise operation' in the central Gaza corridor, the military confirmed, happening over the Passover holiday

The IDF says the “surprise operation” that began Sunday night is aimed at “deepening the achievements” in the Netzarim corridor.

The corridor, built around a road south of Gaza City, enables the IDF to carry out raids in northern and central Gaza while allowing Israel to control access to the north for Palestinians seeking to return after fleeing south.

"The forces are carrying out targeted raids and are thwarting terror in the area," the IDF says in a statement.

The IDF confirmed the return of Hamas militants to areas which had previously been clear enough to halt operations. 

"Nahal troops spotted several gunmen amid the raid, and called in airstrikes by fighter jets against them and the buildings they were spotted operating at," an IDF statement continued.

As for Rafah in the south, so far it seems the IDF's planned offensive appears to be on pause. An estimated 1.5 million civilians are sheltering in the city, and the White House has urged the Netanyahu government not to attack it. Humanitarian aid groups currently say they don't know what to expect.

The US has urged that Israel evacuate civilians first, but these plans are anything but clear at this point. "I have no idea what the plan with the procurement of tents by the Israelis is," the head of the UN humanitarian office in Gaza, Andrea de Domenico, told Al Jazeera. Recent days have seen dozens of casualties due to shelling of some areas, but a full assault is expected to be a humanitarian nightmare for the refugees there.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 08:55

'Its The Economy, Stupid!' Black And Hispanic Voters Embrace Trump On Economics And Well-Being

Zero Hedge -

'Its The Economy, Stupid!' Black And Hispanic Voters Embrace Trump On Economics And Well-Being

Authored by J.G. Collins via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Epoch Times reporter Tom Ozimek recently wrote in these pages of former President Donald Trump’s encounter with Kayla Montgomery, a young Republican political consultant whose business is to “engage young, black professionals, students, and community members” in the Atlanta area. The ex-president and Ms. Montgomery met at a Chick-fil-A restaurant during an impromptu campaign stop in Atlanta. Ms. Montgomery was effusive in her praise of President Trump, saying, “I don’t care what the media tells you, President Trump—we support you!” A video of Ms. Montgomery and the former president hugging soon went viral, even as the media and Democrats quickly dismissed the interaction as “staged.”

Supporters of former President Donald Trump walk near his residence at Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., on Aug. 9, 2022. (Giorgio Viera/AFP via Getty Images)

Then, last week, President Trump left his trial in Manhattan to visit a bodega in Washington Heights, a mostly black and immigrant community on the Upper West Side of Manhattan and received a hero’s welcome from the working people there.

Whether the Chick-fil-A event was staged or not is open to debate. What is undeniable, though, is that polling shows Donald Trump has upended much of the black and Hispanic voting support Democrats have enjoyed since at least Lyndon Johnson’s “Great Society” and, at least in some instances, back to FDR’s New Deal.

A Wall Street Journal poll showed that President Trump’s support among black men in swing states had moved to 30 percent earlier this month compared to just 11 percent of black men nationally in 2020. Among black women, those same percentages went from 6 percent in 2020 to 11 percent in April.

‘It’s the Economy, Stupid!’

Political pundits and editorial pages all seem flummoxed by President Joe Biden’s erosion of support among the traditional Democrat coalition.

But no one seems more upset by the erosion of black support than Democrat political strategist James Carville, “the Ragin’ Cajun,” who engineered Bill Clinton’s 1988 victory over incumbent George H.W. Bush. That’s ironic, because it was Mr. Carville who added the memorable phrase “It’s the economy, stupid!” to the American political lexicon when he pinpointed President Bush’s greatest vulnerability 36 years ago.

Between January 2021, when President Biden took his oath of office, up to March of this year, average rents have increased by 20 percent. By comparison, residential rents increased just 12 percent during President Trump’s entire term. The increased costs hit blacks and Hispanics disproportionately because of the vast disparity in home ownership, as illustrated below.

Blacks and Hispanic workers also disproportionately occupy positions in production and transportation/material moving jobs at higher rates (17.8 percent and 16.7 percent, respectively) than whites (12.1 percent). But those are the jobs most vulnerable to being taken by the influx of the purported asylum seekers who typically work for less and are less likely to join unions or file complaints with the authorities against their employer. The asylum seekers have exploded since President Biden lifted U.S. border restrictions.

As Well as Crime ...

Blacks and Hispanics tend to be disproportionately affected as victims of recidivist criminals let go by criminal justice initiatives championed by leftist Democrat “progressives” in so-called “blue” states. As shown in the chart above, black victims of crime actually decreased during the Trump presidency. (The chart is from a study that has not been updated for later years.)

By the same token, black-owned businesses were among the many businesses looted and destroyed by “progressive” George Floyd rioters in 2020.

… and Education

President Trump made permanent a commitment of $255 million in annual funding for historically black colleges and universities, and he increased funding for the Federal Pell Grant program by signing the FUTURE Act.

Within the states, Republican legislators and governors have championed school choice and a “back-to-basics” approach to K-12 that even Democrats acknowledge. Jorge Elorza, the CEO of Democrats for Education Reform and its affiliate Education Reform Now, a think tank, said: ”We’ve lost our advantage on education because I think that we’ve failed to fully acknowledge that choice resonates deeply with families and with voters.”

Meanwhile, Education Week, the Left-leaning magazine for K-12 teachers, summarized President Biden’s policies as follows:

“[He] passed stricter rules for charter schools seeking federal grant funding; awarded $1 billion to boost school safety and students’ mental health; and proposed an overhaul of Title IX that would give LGBTQ+ students explicit protection under the landmark sex discrimination law and bar outright bans on transgender youth who want to join athletic teams that align with their gender identity.”

Summary

Black and Hispanic voters are moving toward President Trump for a simple reason: their pocketbook and their well-being. The viewpoints of mainstream media pundits—college educated, overwhelmingly white, and mostly liberal—have long maintained a soft bigotry of racial expectations without understanding much of the economy of people who work in blue-, pink-, and green-collar jobs. The pundits don’t understand that blacks and Hispanics, like the rest of the country, have experienced a near 20 percent cumulative erosion in the purchasing power of their dollar and rising crime. They see K-12 education policies that deny school choice and that serve teachers’ unions, special interests, and Democrat party gender identity dogma far more than children and parents.

Black and Hispanic voters have every reason to depart from their traditional voting patterns.

It’s common sense.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 08:35

Transcript: Ashish Shah, CIO GSAM

The Big Picture -



 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Ashish Shah, CIO, Public Investing, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

 

 

~~~

 

00:00:02 [Speaker Changed] This is Masters in business with Barry Ri Holtz on Bloomberg Radio.
00:00:08 [Speaker Changed] This week on the podcast, I have another extra special guest. Asis sha is co-head and CIO of public investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, he helps to oversee $2.3 trillion of assets at GSAM. He has a fascinating background, both in technology and innovation in equity, and perhaps most importantly in credit and fixed income. He just has a unique set of experiences that have placed him in the right place at the right time, doing the exact right job. There aren’t a lot of people in the world of asset management who have such a broad and round set of skills and experiences that have led him to this position. Fascinating background, Alliance Bernstein and Lehman Brothers, as well as a couple of Silicon Valley tech startups. I found his discussion about what went on during the financial crisis at Lehman Brothers and the sort of leadership that you didn’t really hear about at the time. You, you only saw the criticism of the c-suite executives who at, at various companies had had kind of run into problems. But underneath that is just a whole layer of people doing their jobs for themselves, their clients, their staff, and, and I just found that conversation to be fascinating and I think you will also. So with no further ado, my discussion with Goldman Sachs asset managers, CIO Asis Sha.
00:01:49 [Speaker Changed] Thanks so much for having me.
00:01:51 [Speaker Changed] So, let’s talk a little bit about your background. You come out of the Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania with a BS in Economics. What was the career plan?
00:02:00 [Speaker Changed] Look, I, I had no plan. I, this whole world was completely new to me, but I knew two things. First, I knew I loved markets. You know, I’d worked for Jeremy Siegel as a research assistant when I was at Wharton, and that really kind of embedded in me this l love of macro and love of markets. And the second thing was, I knew I didn’t want to go into an investment banking track. I wanted something where I could work on interesting problems that would allow me to cast the career that I wanted without being kind of shooed into like this, you know, analyst, associate kind of fixed career track.
00:02:44 [Speaker Changed] And you have some really interesting and unusual experience, both, both as a trader and, and working as an entrepreneur, innovator, and, and startup. Let, let’s talk about some of that. First, you were a, a trader at a hedge fund that was, was funded by Soros, is it Blue Border? What’s the name of the fund? Blue Border
00:03:03 [Speaker Changed] Partners.
00:03:04 [Speaker Changed] And, and what was it like being a, a trader in that space? Yeah, so,
00:03:08 [Speaker Changed] So I, I had joined that organization right after nine 11 and right after I had come back to New York City. And, you know, it was a fantastic experience. The markets were all over the place, but it was a very small organization. There were, you know, five or six of us and we were spread all across the world. It was nice because I got to work with Greg Coffee, who was Oh, really? One of, one of the partners there. And obviously has gone on to fantastic things. But I, I basically sat in a cubicle by myself trying to come up with investment ideas and realized that that is not my best, best place. My performance wasn’t the best. And, but, but I learned a lot from that experience and knowing that I’m very much a team player and I work well in kind of mid to larger size organizations.
00:03:59 [Speaker Changed] And, and you said you came back to New York. I know you were on the West Coast working in a few startups. Tell us a little bit about level three and some of the other work you did out west. Yeah, so,
00:04:10 [Speaker Changed] You know, go back to the late nineties and the internet was all a rage. I had a brother-in-Law that had joined a company called Level Three Communications that was literally building out the internet. Calls me one day, he’s like, Hey, we’re looking for people. They have the following profile. I think you meet it, come visit and meet with our folks. And I was like, this is my opportunity to really build out my skill sets. Right? I, I was a head of a prop trading desk at Bankers Trust. I had a series of skill sets, but I was really interesting in kind of going to business school, but without going to business school. And I saw this was a fantastic opportunity to do that. So I would go out, I learned the telecom industry. I work 120 hour weeks helping level three raise money, build out its business plan. And I learned a tremendous amount of time about business, about startups, about innovation in that period of time.
00:05:07 [Speaker Changed] And, and what was the other startup that you helped to co-found? Yeah,
00:05:11 [Speaker Changed] So, so once I left there, you know, I left there because I saw that the industry needed greater level of transparency and financial discipline. So I went on to found Sage Logics, which was really meant to be, it was a software a SP in the telecom space focused on telecom providers. And my thesis was, hey, if these organizations don’t get their head around their cost structure that they’re all gonna go bankrupt. Reality is, I should have come back to Wall Street and expressed that view in, in 2001, because that’s essentially what ended up happening,
00:05:47 [Speaker Changed] Right. Bidding against stocks instead of trying to advise people, Hey, you better get your act together or else there’s gonna be trouble. Exactly. So you come back to, to New York, eventually you get into credit and asset management at Alliance Bernstein. I’m gonna hold off your Lehman experience for a few moments. Sure. ’cause I know we can spend a lot of time talking about that. So eventually you go to Lehman, then to Alliance Bernstein. Tell us what you did at Alliance where you were CFO and portfolio Manager.
00:06:17 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so, so I, I was brought in by Doug Peoples and Peter Kraus to lead the credit organization. And I think that, you know, when I think back to that period of time, what they were trying to accomplish is that they had really strong credit capabilities, but they needed to unify a team and they needed to build an investment process that was gonna be scalable. They had some of the most talented portfolio managers and kind of investors in the world. They really understood how to construct portfolios, which were things that I learned from those portfolio managers. Portfolio managers like Shan Distenfeld that leads income at AB today. What I brought to the table was an ability to kind of bring the team together to operate to singular set of incentives IE delivering performance, right? Not being distracted by things. And to be able to do that at scale, I brought the hedge fund skills, the derivative skills that you kind of learn in operating in hedge fund and prop desks to that traditional asset management. And what I learned was how do you construct portfolios in a way where you can stick with your bets over long haul, but at size, right? Where you are the market. And so you don’t have the ability to kind of increase risk, decrease risk, but rather that you are building your portfolio so you can stick with the risks that you think makes sense over time.
00:07:40 [Speaker Changed] What you’re describing sounds like a set of challenges that faces any large asset manager, the ability to scale, the ability to make sure all members of the team are pulling in the same direction to make sure the incentives are aligned properly. How universal are the things that you did at Alliance Bernstein credit to any large asset manager?
00:08:04 [Speaker Changed] Look, the, those are absolutely critical elements, and it’s amazing how as the asset management industry has consolidated and these investment organizations have grown, how difficult it is for those organizations to pivot into those things. Why, why
00:08:21 [Speaker Changed] Is that? Is it just legacy systems that people can’t get past the sunk costs? Or is it something
00:08:28 [Speaker Changed] More, I I I think it ends up being cultural. I think that investing requires focus. And very similar to a lot of organizations, you are built around these teams that are small and agile, right? Because you have to adapt to the market. Sure. But how do you pull those teams together into larger organizations to be able to do bigger things? And I think, you know, that’s where the innovation experience that I had within technology and within software, it really came in handy because I not only understood markets and investment process, but I was able to take kind of how do you invest at scale? How do you bring technology as a force multiplier for your investors so that your investors can focus, they can be in and operate in smaller org teams, make decisions quickly, but at the same time that you can build large scale customization on behalf of your clients.
00:09:25 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk about a little innovation. You found AB Labs in 2015. Tell us a little bit about what AB Labs did and and what it allowed you to express within that project.
00:09:40 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so I I, I, when I go back to that period of time, I think there were four of us at Alliance Bernstein that realized there was something materially changing in the market, which was FinTech was really changing and accelerate the changes within the broader asset management ecosystem. And so myself and you know, Vicki Walia, Matt Bass, Carl Sproles, CTO decided that in order to get our organization ready, that we needed to build that muscle, not just at the top down as an initiative, but actually at a, as a bottom up engagement tool for the organization. And so we tackled topics like roboadvisors, crypto, blockchain within that construct as a way to educate the organization much more rapidly and get people leaning forward into innovation.
00:10:36 [Speaker Changed] So was this a pure research group or was this a bit of a venture fund that focused on FinTech? So
00:10:42 [Speaker Changed] It ended up leading to both, right? It ended up leading to venture investments, but in large part, most of that effort was really around building organizational readiness to innovate. And, you know, a lot of the things that spun out of that effort really kind of continue to impact that organization to, in terms of the forward lean when it comes to innovation and the overall operating stack that allows them to, to be able to again, allow the portfolio managers to focus on markets and yet to be able to deliver scalable solutions.
00:11:21 [Speaker Changed] You mentioned culture earlier. How important is it for an organization to have the right mindset to lean into technology, to be aware of the fact that, hey, if you’re not cannibalizing yourself, someone else will?
00:11:37 [Speaker Changed] Okay. I, I think that culture defines success in investing and particularly in investing organizations, that you have to set an investment culture where your investors, first of all are very aligned to delivering performance and the type of performance that’s gonna end up making your clients happy. I think that you need to have a culture where people collaborate. If you don’t, it’s gonna be really tough to have scaled performance, right? You can succeed in one area, but you’re only gonna be as good and have as much insight as that any one, you know, small group, which is gonna limit your success if you try to do other things. And, and the final point, you know, exactly the one you brought up, which, which is around innovation. The world is moving really rapidly. The way you do research, the way you put together portfolios, the way you execute in the market is changing.
00:12:33 And frankly, what end advisors want right? For their clients. And what we as an asset manager have to deliver is changing very rapidly. Everyone wants mass customization, but delivered with the quality of institutional asset management. And I think it’s really requires innovation and technology in order to do that well. And, and frankly, that’s why I joined Goldman Sachs because I felt that you needed the scale resources of that come with a firm like Goldman Sachs in the analytics and the ability to really invest in technology and in data if we were gonna succeed in going to market in the RIA and wirehouse community and delivering to, you know, institutional quality portfolios that really meet the individual needs of every individual at, you know, minimum sizes of a hundred thousand dollars.
00:13:37 [Speaker Changed] Hmm. It’s interesting because in the past what you’re describing has been somewhat mutually exclusive. It’s very hard to deliver institutional size asset management and mass customization together. I’m gonna assume innovation and technology is what bridges that gap.
00:13:59 [Speaker Changed] Absolutely.
00:14:00 [Speaker Changed] So, so let’s talk about a couple of related quotes that you have that caught my, my ear because it relates to where we are in this market adoption cycle of technology and, and how the world is changing. Quote, as a long-term investor, all you do is worry, but it’s not about what you’re thinking, it’s about how you react. Explain,
00:14:29 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. So, so I think that the most successful investors, the way they invest is they decide what works, what they believe works over time, and they’re simply trying to stick with it. And so what is the worry about? The worry is about, first of all, is that thing that I believe works over the long haul. To what extent is it wrong? Because where I’m really going to underperform is if I get a long-term trend wrong. And so you should be constantly challenging your core thesis, but inside of that, you know, I think it’s really critical to be humble and to understand that that core thesis, you have to stick with it over time. And so the other aspect of this is, okay, what can you do to make it so that you stick with your course core thesis? Because if you have an environment where your core thesis, whatever it is you do, whether it’s investing in growth, investing in, in companies that are lined up with a tr long-term trend like technology, you know, you’re gonna be challenged, right? And so the question is how do you construct portfolios? How do you look out for the challenges that are going to cause your clients to fire you? Right? And if you can tilt out of whatever it is that works over the long haul in those periods of time when maybe it’s gotten crowded over, over extended, you’re gonna be much more successful in capturing those periods of when the opportunity is the best. IE buying low and selling high rather than, you know, having to sell low because your investors essentially have lost patients.
00:16:20 [Speaker Changed] So, so you raise a really interesting point about constantly having to reevaluate your underlying thesis, but it, it makes me think of one of the biggest challenges there, which is how can you tell whether or not an underlying thesis is no longer true? Or if you’re just in a period of, hey, this style is out of favor and it this is what happens on a regular basis, value underperforms growth for a while, or international underperforms domestic, how can you identify when you have a giant secular shift versus simply, hey, this has fallen out of favor these days.
00:17:02 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. So, so that, that’s where doing research and developing an investment process are absolutely critical, right? Your investment process makes it so that when you know, there might be a challenge that use other tools like momentum, like, you know, risk analytics to be able to like, not question whether your thesis are out there, but actually reduce your risk before the market has questioned your thesis, right? So nothing may have changed, but if the market is changing the pricing of that risk, right? It matters to your portfolio. So I think that first point is really critical, which is you need to have things that actually diversify you out of that long term, right? And they have to kind of take place before you’ve already lost money. I think the the second thing is that you want to be doing the research and developing your process so that when your style has gone out of favor, that you know when to double down, right? That you know when to lean in and you have confidence to do it. And so that’s a lot of what investment process design is, is how do you stick with the long-term bets? How do you tilt out and tilt in rather than, you know, being kind of and reacting, being back footed or reacting that you’re actually front footed and you’re able to kind of, you know, shallow out the drawdowns and lean into the opportunities.
00:18:31 [Speaker Changed] So we’ve mostly been talking about things that apply to equities, things like momentum and value and growth. Let’s talk about the other side of a balanced portfolio, which is fixed income. How you thinking about fixed income, be it corporates, treasury, or even tips in what’s been a pretty wild environment where the central bank has raised rates 525 basis points in about 18 months. How do you, how do you process that?
00:19:00 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so from a long-term perspective, the trite to say, but fixed income is about income, right? And so the starting point is evaluating income, evaluating the likelihood that you actually can capture and hang on to the income. Because a lot of the credit instruments, if you have losses in your portfolio, that gives up the income, right? Right. So starting point is income shape of curves matter. So spread curves historically most of the time are steep interest rate curves most of the time are steep. That happens not to be the case today, right? What
00:19:36 [Speaker Changed] Have we been inverted for two years? Just about
00:19:39 [Speaker Changed] Almost
00:19:40 [Speaker Changed] Right? That that’s a pretty unusual set of circumstances, at least in the modern era. Well,
00:19:44 [Speaker Changed] It’s also very, very unusual to see an inversion like this and not see a material slow down in growth, right? Part of the reason why 12 months ago, people were forecasting with high probability that we’d be in a recession is because historically yield curve inversions really kind of announce that we’re slowing down
00:20:05 [Speaker Changed] Pretty good track record historically too.
00:20:07 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. I, I think that what’s changed this time around is that, you know, real rates and nominal rates are high enough that they are slowing the economy down, but there’s enough offsetting fiscal impulse within the US economy at least that, you know, you have growth continuing on. And so you have this interesting situation where inflation has been coming down, right? It may be not in a straight line, and certainly the la last couple of data points that we’ve had haven’t, haven’t really pleased the market in terms of the Fed being able to ease aggressively. But inflation has come down from its peak, but growth continues. And I think that, you know, for, for fixed income and, and the income piece, you’re better off in the front end. Now if you look at value in the curve and from a longer term perspective, look at what are the real rates relative to the real ability for the economy to grow, we’re pretty attractive here. Right? And the one thing we do know is that if growth does slow down in a way that like cascades into inflation, that bonds are gonna do their job on the price side, which is they’re gonna diversify the equities that you hope.
00:21:26 [Speaker Changed] So falling inflation, still robust growth and a decent yield on fixed income, dare I use the word Goldilocks, is this a pretty decent investing environment for relative to what we’ve seen over the past few years?
00:21:42 [Speaker Changed] Look, certainly on a year to date basis, if you look at your full portfolio, you’ve done pretty well, right? And that, that really comes from the starting point, which is, you know, you have high nominal yields and you have economic growth and earnings growth on the equity side, those two things are working together to generate a pretty good return in absolute terms.
00:22:06 [Speaker Changed] Hmm. Really quite, quite intriguing. So let’s talk a little bit about your experience in the two thousands. You came back to New York from the west coast and you ended up at Lehman Brothers working on the credit strategy side. Tell us a little bit about what brought you to Lehman and what were your experiences like?
00:22:26 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so I was a client of Lehman’s back in the early nineties, mid nineties. And so I had a lot of relationships there and you know, I had always loved fixed income as an investor. Unfortunately, fixed income became a lot less interesting in the later nineties. And so my team had really pivoted towards more equity strategies. And so when I, I was coming back looking to get back into Wall Street from the technology and, and telecom space, Lehman was one of the phone calls I made. Tom Corcoran and Rick Reeder were people that knew me, that had done business with me. And they said, Hey, you know, what would you think about trading prop within Lehman Brothers? And, and I said, look, I haven’t traded fixed income markets for, you know, coming up on five or six years. I don’t think I should be managing capital right away.
00:23:25 But there was a real change going on within fixed income markets and specifically within credit markets, which is derivatives were coming into this space, hedge funds were coming into this space. And so when you looked inside of the credit business at Lehman, the people that understood derivatives didn’t understand credit. The people that understood credit didn’t understand derivatives. And I happened to be one of the rare individuals that had grown up understanding credit, understanding derivatives and understanding what a hedge fund fund, what types of trades a hedge fund would be interested in doing. And so I came into the role, you know, with ostensibly the, the title of hedge fund strategist. And my, my job, my day job was really to work with the traders and the salespeople to come up with trade ideas for hedge funds. And so all I was doing was looking for ideas for myself, right. That I found was interesting. And so that cascaded into people realize that, wait, this, this person understands credit, they understand derivatives, they understand these alternative strategies. And so I was, you know, able to cascade that into running all of credit strategy, including kind of some of the prop prop research analysts that work within the organization. So,
00:24:47 [Speaker Changed] So let’s set the stage a little bit. What, what year do you come back to Lehman Brothers?
00:24:51 [Speaker Changed] 2003.
00:24:52 [Speaker Changed] So it’s post.com implosion. Yep. Technology had fallen about 80%. If you look at the Nasdaq peak to trough suddenly had become very attractive as the Gulf War was beginning. What was that era like at Lehman Brothers in the early to mid two thousands? What, what were you seeing and, and what was the general energy like at that shop? Because I remember that trading floor as being just a monster sort of noise machine.
00:25:23 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. It was super high energy. This was the world of fixed income, right? Fixed income was booming. The growth of structured credit of, you know, mortgage credit, you know, was really kind of expanding the opportunity set and every, there was a lot of credit being borrowed, right? You know, to, to fund companies in the aftermath of 2000, 2002, that credit cycle, there were secondary opportunities from a distressed debt perspective. It it was just a high energy, rapid growth area. And so it was exciting to be there watching what was going on, helping to influence what was going on in terms of product creation and, and client education.
00:26:12 [Speaker Changed] I don’t know if people realize oh three was still fairly early days of the ramp up of mortgage backed securitization. It had already been underway, but nowhere near the numbers we saw a few years later. What was that experience like watching this machine start to develop some momentum?
00:26:31 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so, so I, I didn’t directly watch the mortgage side of the business. I was on the corporate credit side of the business. But you know, without question, the overall fixed income franchise was growing. And so we were able to cascade that into, you know, growth in our franchise and product innovation that really was serving our clients, which were largely both hedge funds and asset managers.
00:26:57 [Speaker Changed] So you were at Lehman during what probably was the five most exciting years in the company’s 180 year history. Any stories stand out from that period? I would imagine you saw a lot of things happen there.
00:27:13 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so I I I tell you that, you know, the number of stories I have around the fall of Lehman in 2008, you know, that was a period of time that, you know, o obviously a very difficult time for the economy for everyone involved at the human level. But, you know, it was a tremendous leadership kind of experience because you really got to understand what you were made of, who you were about, and you got to develop a reputation, you know, from my standpoint, you know, the story that stands out to me. So, you know, I had taken over from Rick Reeder doing the weekly credit call. So on a weekly basis myself, you know, or Eric Felder would do a call really surveilling from a macro perspective what was going on in markets and specifically credit markets. And so Lehman had failed on Sunday, right? Gone bankrupt, had gone in, taken my box in and cleaned up my desk, literally
00:28:15 [Speaker Changed] Like walking out with the banker box full of personal items
00:28:18 [Speaker Changed] And, and being interviewed on, you know, on the outside by the media. But Monday morning I walk in, I’m wearing a suit ready to go and saying, and we’re all standing around not knowing what to do.
00:28:31 [Speaker Changed] Post bankruptcy, file
00:28:32 [Speaker Changed] Post bankruptcy. We don’t know if we have salaries or hedge or, or healthcare for that matter. And my team and I are sitting down, everyone’s kind of, you know, at different stages of what do we do? And we have this call that we do every week that is the following mor morning. And so my son,
00:28:56 [Speaker Changed] Wait, just let me make sure I understand this. So Sunday Lehman files, yeah. Monday it’s front page news all over the world. And what time is your call? 8:00 AM It’s,
00:29:07 [Speaker Changed] It was at 7:45 AM
00:29:10 [Speaker Changed] Or so you have to get on the horn and speak to the entire sales team and, and Bond
00:29:17 [Speaker Changed] And all of our clients, right? And I, I sat with my team and I said, look, I want to do this because it’s the right thing to do and I don’t know what our outcome is here, but you know, I don’t want to go out this way. I want to go out with everyone knowing that the last thing we did in our jobs was we tried to serve them. Right? And, and so, you know, one of my team members, a guy by the name of Krishna Hag Day, and I worked till probably 1130 or midnight that night, put together the presentation the next morning. That’s
00:29:56 [Speaker Changed] Till Sunday night midnight. Yeah,
00:29:57 [Speaker Changed] Sorry, that’s Monday night. Midnight call goes on on Tuesday, we show up on Tuesday morning and we’re going over the internal hoot and there’s, you know, probably 300, 400 clients dialed in however many more, right? And everyone looks up and they’re like, we can’t believe these guys are still going. Right? And, and in fact, I think it was about an hour later that over the hoot, the CEO of of Barclays comes over and, you know, announces that Barclays is buying Lehman Brothers, right? Right. The US operations and someone in equities has the, you know, hilarity of playing God’s save the Queen over the hood. But the number of emails that I got around from clients saying, wow, you know, we’ve always respected your work, but to go on and to do your job in servicing your clients on this day of all days is like hats off to you. And so I I think that, like, that was one of the things that I think it’s lost in all the stories and the, the media is that you had a group of people here that really did care about clients and went out of their way even when the chips were down to keep doing their jobs.
00:31:23 [Speaker Changed] So Barclays takes over Lehman us with, I I think there was a fed backing of that, if I remember correctly, or there was some no backing. Was there a guarantee or did they,
00:31:33 [Speaker Changed] There was no backing.
00:31:35 [Speaker Changed] So, but it was post-bankruptcy, so it was post-bankruptcy, all the prior liabilities would go away without a a, a fed banking without a fed backing. And you end up in, I guess it’s a fairly similar role at Barclays, right? Yep. How similar was the transition? How smooth was that?
00:31:54 [Speaker Changed] It was quite a bumpy transition. It’s a pretty awkward position to be interviewing for your own job. We had a fantastic franchise, right? You know, the Lehman franchise was really known for research and for was very, very strong in credit and in the derivative space. And we were known for serving clients right within that space. And so that transition happened. It was messy as you can imagine. But, but also we, we kind of very quickly got back to work ’cause there were opportunities in markets, clients needed advice in markets and we needed to figure out what was gonna happen to the financial system.
00:32:40 [Speaker Changed] So Barclays had, if I, I’m sure I’m getting this wrong, they had a small US presence before the purchase,
00:32:46 [Speaker Changed] Pretty limited US
00:32:48 [Speaker Changed] Purchase. And this gave them a fairly substantial footprint in the United States. Were there a lot of redundancies or did you pretty much just pick up your whole corporate fixed income team and slot ’em into Barclays? Yeah,
00:32:59 [Speaker Changed] So, so there was a, a good amount of redundancy that
00:33:03 [Speaker Changed] Had to be
00:33:03 [Speaker Changed] Painful, which was pr painful. But it was literally the fifth round of layoffs that we went through at the time. And again, it, we said goodbye to a lot of really good people who, you know, thankfully most of the people ended up landing well over time, but it really told you a lot about the people that you worked with and how they, you know, operated. And, you know, for, for me it was definitely formative as a leader to be able to go through that difficult period of time to try to do my best to support my team and to serve my clients.
00:33:39 [Speaker Changed] It, it really looks like Barclays stole, you guys stole the, the crown jewels of Lehman Brothers post bankruptcy when everybody was terrified like, Hey, we can’t figure out what’s going on there Post-bankruptcy, the assumption is all the risk has attenuated and you’re just left with search through the rubble of, of the collapse. And here’s some really spectacular assets, great teams, and a long history of making money. What was the experience like? What was the transition like to Barclays?
00:34:16 [Speaker Changed] Look, you know, I think that it was surreal to go from one firm to another. And it, it’s an experience that most people won’t have, right?
00:34:26 [Speaker Changed] It literally in the same building, right? You just change the sign on the front door
00:34:30 [Speaker Changed] In, in the same building, although we moved around. But, you know, it was surreal. But you know, I think when you work in financial services, you’re used to change. You’re used to disruption, probably not at that scale and at that speed. But, you know, the the other thing I would tell you is that, you know, what the organization was able to accomplish and what we as individuals learn from that experience was just like priceless. I mean, once you’ve been through an environment like that, everything else kind of pales by comparison, right? You kind of wake up and you know, you know, you’re able to deal with any sort of crisis, right? Like I, I’ll contrast that with the, the pandemic where, which was equally kind of a, it was a much more massive crisis at both the personal level, you know, operational level. But, you know, we’d been through crisis and I think for managers that have been through crisis, have had to manage risk through crisis that you, you get used to it. You learn the lessons, you’re able to roll them forward and it, and frankly, it’s one of the things that I think I do really well is in these periods of difficulty and crisis that, you know, I’m able to zoom out and understand how to deal with a crisis, kind of slow things down, get people to pull people together to communicate and to solve things as if there are problems.
00:36:04 [Speaker Changed] That baptism of fire is unique to our generation. I’m going to imagine the previous generation went through the 87 crash and the two thousand.com implosion sort of was the bridge between the two. I’m curious, how long did it take before you were standing up that weekly credit call at Barclays that used to do at Lehman Brothers?
00:36:29 [Speaker Changed] I, I think it was as soon as we were allowed to
00:36:33 [Speaker Changed] Like, like a couple of months.
00:36:36 [Speaker Changed] It was more weeks.
00:36:37 [Speaker Changed] Oh really? Yeah. And, and you continued doing that at Barclays for, for how long?
00:36:43 [Speaker Changed] It was about 18 months until Alliance Bernstein gave me a call and said, Hey, we’re looking for ahead of credit, any interest in talking to us? Huh?
00:36:53 [Speaker Changed] Really, really quite fascinating. So, so what’s the big takeaway from, from that experience? We, we’ve talked about innovation and culture. Now you bring up the issue of leadership. What did that entire experience leave you with?
00:37:09 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so, so look, I I think there are a couple of different things that I took away. The, the first and foremost is you take care of your people and you talk, take care of your clients and everything else is gonna take care of itself, right? I, I think that that period of time for me, because I was very involved in working with the New York Fed around what do we do to stabilize things and provided, despite having gone bankrupt, provided a lot of insight and ideas around actions that could be taken to really stabilize the US financial system. And for me it was a calling around, you know, making sure that I didn’t just operate within an organization and with narrow goals, but rather that the importance that the financial system plays when it comes to the, the US economy and the strength of the nation is absolutely critical.
00:38:10 And that we can’t take that for granted. And, you know, there’s a higher calling for anyone that works in a seat like I do today, which is you have a responsibility to make sure that the country benefits from the work that you’re doing. And so I’ve always, through that period of time, one of my biggest takeaways was any policy maker calls, I’m gonna provide them the best advice I can, the best insights I can so that they can do the best job they can for the US economy. And it’s that economy that impacts so many people in the country, both their wealth, their wellbeing, as well as the country’s national security. And I think that, you know, a lot of folks look at our industry and they question, you know, whether, whether you know why we exist, whether we need to exist. You know, I I think that, you know, history has shown that the, you know, the, the ability to grow the country and invest in innovation and infrastructure is really subject to the ability to finance that infrastructure. And so one of the things I find amazing about working at Goldman Sachs is that that is very much our purpose, right? We are here to help fund, you know, the, the growth in the economy. You know, yes, we do that to, to make money as an organization, but ultimately that benefits so many people from their, you know, longer term kind of growth.
00:39:50 [Speaker Changed] So you mentioned you frequently were responding to various policymakers. I’m trying to remember was was Tim Geithner New York Fed Chief when you were at Yes. Lehman or did he come in afterwards? No,
00:40:03 [Speaker Changed] Geithner was, was head of the New York Fed.
00:40:06 [Speaker Changed] So you must have had a lot of back and forth with him over that time. There were some people working both in the, the Treasury Department and in the New York Fed and the Federal Reserve clearly paying very close attention at that point to what was going on. Yeah,
00:40:23 [Speaker Changed] I I I spent more of my time with the New York markets team. So Haley Bosky and, and her team because I was a technical individual, right? Like I’m a market expert, I’m not a policy expert, right? But, but I, I would say that some of the work that I did ended up turning into some of the programs that the Fed actually launched, including the talf where, you know, I can trace back through some of the books that have been written, including the one where I’m a small character that, you know, some of the work I did turned into policy, which was, you know, reassuring to know that I did work that helped students get student loans through that period of time when banks weren’t able to finance those loans.
00:41:11 [Speaker Changed] Huh. Really, really fascinating when everything was, was frozen. Hey, the policymakers go to the experts ’cause they don’t have that expertise. So let’s talk a little bit about your role as a CIO first. What is public investing? Are we referring to public stocks and bonds or what, what does this include? Yeah,
00:41:33 [Speaker Changed] It includes public stocks and bonds managed both fundamentally and through our quant business and in individual sleeves as well as multi-asset portfolios.
00:41:43 [Speaker Changed] So multi-asset could be a hedge fund or is that internal? Is that outside it?
00:41:49 [Speaker Changed] It’s all internally managed, but it, it could include a hedge fund, it could include a more traditional mutual fund or an ETF.
00:41:58 [Speaker Changed] So prior to this role, you were co CIO of fixed income at Goldman for a couple of years. First question, co CIO always seems like that’s challenging when there’s multiple heads. How do you run as co CIOs?
00:42:13 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I, I I would say rather than challenging, it’s actually fantastic because really you have a partner, obviously it takes effort when you have a partner, you have to invest in a relationship, you have to communicate and over communicate, but it’s fantastic what you can accomplish where you have different perspectives, different points of view, and the geographic and kind of resource span of two individuals. So my co-head and co CIO, when I, I was leading fixed income sat in London, and because of that we were able to cover more of our investment leaders, gather more perspectives, wider set of perspectives on investing markets. He came from more of an emerging markets background. I’ve, from more of a, a dev developed market credit background, we mixed kind of macro and bottoms up and were able to do, I felt a really good job. But it requires investing in the relationship. You have to make sure you’re communicating all the time, you’re doing a lot of kind of weekend calls to make sure you’re caught up. But it can be quite powerful and, you know, it prevents you from missing things,
00:43:22 [Speaker Changed] Especially they’re starting out six or eight hours ahead of us, you’re ending a couple hours after them. It, it, it allows pretty much almost a full day of coverage that you wouldn’t necessarily get if both of you’re in New York or both of you in London. Absolutely. So let’s talk about your, your current role, CIO of public investing. That’s kind of an unusual title. I don’t know a lot of firms that break the world down that way. Tell us a little bit about the thinking behind public investing. Why did Goldman structure it that way? Yeah,
00:43:57 [Speaker Changed] So, so we have a very large effort to invest in private assets across credit and equity in order to make sure that we were also investing in our public investment strategies. We felt it was important to kind of unify those strategies under public investing, you know, structure. I think that when, when you think about, and look at the evolution of public markets, there’s a lot of change going on. And both from a trading perspective, a market structure perspective, you know, hedge funds, non hedge funds, ETFs, passive active. And in order to really leverage the capabilities we have from a data analytics perspective across all these strategies, we felt bringing these historically kind of completely independent strategies together to deliver better performance for clients made a lot of sense. Huh?
00:44:57 [Speaker Changed] That, that’s really kind of intriguing as opposed to saying fixed income, public and private equity, public and private, you guys are, are, are using the divin line as public versus private, obviously very different asset classes and different structures. So I i, I kind of get a better sense of, of that structure. Tell us a little bit about what is the day in the life of Goldman Sachs, chief investment officer of public investing for the asset management group. What does that look like?
00:45:27 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so I, I think like a lot of investors, like frankly a lot of advisors, you know, I wake up every day get in and the first thing I’m looking at is markets and the prior days worth of performance, right? Performance is job one for any investor. And so that’s exactly what I’m, I’m kind of focusing my time. And then from there, it’s really gonna go around three things that deliver performance over the long haul, which is people, process and platform, right?
00:45:56 [Speaker Changed] Say that again. People process, platform. Yeah. Okay, got
00:45:59 [Speaker Changed] It. And people is obvious, you’re investors, making sure you’re checking in on them, investing in them, catching up with them on, you know, what they’re focused on, what needs they have, what resources they need, process. We’re constantly doing performance and process reviews across our different strategies. And really the goal there is to make sure that our team members are learning from best practices across the entire platform. And that we’re bringing the insights across not just public, but public and private into our portfolios and our portfolio decision making. The final thing really goes back to that story around in innovation, which is, I don’t think it, you know, a lot of asset managers out there are like, oh, we have systems, we’ve outsourced our systems. That’s a good way to fall behind the evolution in the marketplace. If you look at thing innovations like what, what’s happening in ai?
00:46:58 The only way to keep up and deliver strong performance going forward is gonna be to be investing in your data and analytics. And that requires a scale and a focus that very few CIOs actually put in. And so for, from my perspective, you know, all those things come together in delivering strong performance. But it, but you know, I think the other dimension of this is that clients are looking for more than just a return number, right? They’re increasing looking for customization so that the returns match up with their needs and that they’re delivered in a tax efficient manner and delivered customized specifically for them. And so when it comes to direct indexing, you know, when it comes to a SMA of munis and taxable fixed income, those are things that we’re able to deliver with the, the quality of institutional quality portfolio construction and insight, but all the way down, as I mentioned before, to a hundred thousand dollars minimum size. And we’re able to kind of take all this knowledge, all this investment expertise and really use it to solve client problems, which is the solutions dimension of our business.
00:48:17 [Speaker Changed] Hmm, really interesting. Your recent background was more credit and fixed income earlier in your career. A little more on the equity side. What’s it like being responsible for the whole public investing side, especially given how much things have changed on the equity side,
00:48:37 [Speaker Changed] I gotta say I have the best job in the world, right? I get to see every investment process, every investment decision I get to interact with the smartest people that genuinely care about delivering performance to their clients and solving, helping their clients solve their problems. Like every day I wake up and I can’t believe how lucky I am to be able to walk in and learn something new from my investors every single day. And, and that, that frankly is one of the things I think differentiates our organization. Every organization has smart people, but the density of smart people and their, their humility and willingness to learn from each other and willingness to teach other people, and particularly newcomers, but even for me as a CIO, you know, one of the most senior people within the investment org every day I’m learning from my team
00:49:30 [Speaker Changed] And we keep coming back to culture, which you talked about earlier. How important is culture towards those sort of values?
00:49:38 [Speaker Changed] Look, culture is foundational. You can’t succeed without it. And every day we wake up, we ask ourselves what we can be doing to improve our culture, to continue to invest in our culture and our people because that’s the only way we keep up. This is a competitive environment, right? It’s one of the most competitive games in the world is markets. And so if you’re not always training to get better, you’re gonna fall behind. And we’ve seen plenty of players do that. Their performance wanes and you know, suddenly you wake up, they’ve been gobbled up by someone else or you know, they’re outta business.
00:50:16 [Speaker Changed] So you, we mentioned that your focus is on public investing, but Goldman has a very substantial private investing side where it’s either private credit or private equity or a lot of different things that on the equity side as well on that are privates. How, how do you interact with your peers on the private side and how does that integrate into Goldman Sachs asset management in total? Yeah, so
00:50:44 [Speaker Changed] One, one of the cores to our culture, core values of our culture is around collaboration. And so on a regular basis, IE you know, weekly and monthly we have collaboration across public and private investing where we share again with, you know, with appropriate governance around it so that we’re not sharing things we’re not supposed to, but we share insights around what’s going on in, in markets for the benefit and broader benefit of our investment teams and ultimately, or our clients that we’re investing on behalf of.
00:51:19 [Speaker Changed] So, so i I I would not be doing my job if I didn’t ask you a few questions about stocks and bonds and especially some quotes of yours. One thing that leapt out, you had said late last year, I think 2024 is gonna be the year of the bonds explained. Sure.
00:51:39 [Speaker Changed] So we had seen late, late last year really started, I think I, that quote was from either late October or early November, we had seen kind of a steady pace of inflation coming down. So the fed’s hikes were working, the economy was normalizing, and we felt that rates were too high relative to what was necessary to continue to see inflation come down. I think in six weeks of 2023, we ended up seeing the rally that we were hoping to see in 2024,
00:52:11 [Speaker Changed] That that was huge. And it was like the last couple of months of the year, just a giant a hundred basis point move in, in yields, which is kind of unusual, isn’t it?
00:52:21 [Speaker Changed] I it’s a reminder of when the coast is clear, everyone’s gonna go for yield and it’s gonna be too late, right? And so, you know, since then we’ve seen kind of the data revert a bit, growth has been strong, which is good, right? We want growth to be strong, you know, for our overall portfolio. But inflation has ticked up a little bit. So it broke its, its near term path. Every, every data point that we end up seeing kind of confirms that the long term trend is to still towards inflation normalizing. And so, you know, our, our ethos, our focus has been, look, you’re gonna get these periods of time of retracement, you wanna make sure you have room to add into those because you don’t wanna miss it because you know, when inflation turns it’s gonna turn quickly and everyone is gonna jump in.
00:53:16 [Speaker Changed] That kind of reminds me of another quote of yours. The market still has runway. Explain what you mean by that. How much runway is left?
00:53:25 [Speaker Changed] We have been watching growth very carefully. As I mentioned, central banks outside the US are actually becoming more accommodative with the exception of Japan. And underlying growth is actually looking pretty good and diverse, right? Economies are growing and companies are being very disciplined on the cost side, which is leading to earnings growth. That’s out outpacing kind of nominal growth. And so for those reasons we do think that, you know, equity markets have continued runway. Having said that, you know, the other thing we have realized is that parts of the market, and you know, particularly around technology and AI have run up so fast, right? That the risk return is setting up for potential for, for corrections. And so you,
00:54:11 [Speaker Changed] They’re, they’re definitely ahead of themselves.
00:54:14 [Speaker Changed] And so there are these long-term trends in places like Japan and India and you know, a lot of value even in other parts of the market that we think represent, you know, near and longer term opportunities to diversify your portfolio. And, and so we, one of the things we think a lot about is when something’s gotten overdone, when it’s crowded, right? How do you tilt out of that area and into places that are good gonna work for you either in the short term in the long term. And we see that as material opportunities, particularly in India and Japan that are gonna be long term and even more broadly in the industrial space when it comes to global equities.
00:55:01 [Speaker Changed] And let’s talk about an area that’s had some challenges. Some of the treasury auctions have been pretty mediocre over the past couple of sessions. You mentioned, hey, at a certain point, auction buyers just, you know, shrugged their shoulders at the whole process. Tell us your thinking about what’s going on with treasury auctions.
00:55:22 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so, so I, I think the comment was more around, and it probably came from the fall around we will get these times, the treasury has to auction off a lot, right? The deficit is quite large and structural. And so to the extent the curve doesn’t represent value, it is going to cause auctions to tail, right? The, this is not gonna be the first time that we’ve seen it and it’s really critical for both the US government, right, US treasury to focus on kind of managing its its liability side as well as investors to be thinking about whether there’s good value or not. I think that, you know, a lot of investors are very concerned about the long-term stability of running deficits at the pace that we are and that’s gonna require political solutions and choices over the coming years. A lot of this is tied to demographics, social security, you know, Medicare, you know, and, and frankly these were things that we were looking at 30, 40 years ago when I was in school and are finally taking place, which is we’re having the baby boomers retire and the fiscal, you know, costs of that are now have to get charged the economy.
00:56:47 And so I think in the near term, you know, we’re in pretty good shape because duration does represent value on a real basis, right? And we are growing, which is a big, big deal to grow. Nominally actually is a fantastic thing for debt load, but it’s something that we’re gonna have to be very focused on as debt investors. We talk a lot about within our fixed income org debt sustainability and the, the types of things that would worry us.
00:57:16 [Speaker Changed] So when rates were zero, nobody really seemed to be worrying too much about debt. You had the usual suspects come out and say, oh, debt’s unsustainable, but they’ve been saying that for, for forever 525 basis points higher suddenly, hey, the interest income on this is substantial. Is there any pressure on the Fed despite a slight uptick in inflation to say, Hey, we gotta bring rates down a little bit just to make the fiscal side more sustainable. Or is that just not part of their charge?
00:57:51 [Speaker Changed] I don’t think that’s part of their charge. They do look to liquidity in treasury markets, which is absolutely critical. But I, I think with this level of debt and this cost of debt, if we don’t grow, if growth slows down, it can slow down really hard and that can cascade into a real problem for the Fed, which is employment. Hmm. Right. And so, you know, I think the Fed is watching very carefully the evolution of some of the, the debt stacks where, you know, in commercial real estate, let’s say, where rates are very high and it’s impacting the value of that commercial real estate as it sits in the banking system in other financial institutions. And we’re that to become even more problematic and spill into growth and, you know, cause deflation then I think you would see, or disinflation, I think you would see the, the fed move pretty rapidly.
00:58:47 [Speaker Changed] Let me ask you one curve ball question before we get to our favorite questions, which is you’re on the board of Directors for Minds Matter, a nonprofit that focuses on helping to prepare young people from low income families to, to become ready for college. Tell us a little bit about the organization and, and how you got involved with them.
00:59:09 [Speaker Changed] I got involved with Minds Matter because I followed a girl that I really liked. She was volunteering every Saturday and this May is gonna be the 30th anniversary of me being married to that young woman. So, you know, my wife introduced me to Minds Matter. I’ve always cared about education as a path for people to be able to better themselves and, you know, minds Matter, you know, serves over a thousand students in 14 cities across the country. It helps those students get into college, it helps ’em believe that they belong in college and succeed in college and then it helps them post-College build the network that they need to, to succeed in life. Huh,
00:59:56 [Speaker Changed] Really, really interesting. Alright, let’s jump to our favorite questions that we ask all of our guests. Starting with, who are some of your mentors who helped shape your career?
01:00:07 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so th three that stand out to me early in my career, Dr. Jeremy Siegel at, at the Wharton School, who I worked for three years was just fantastic in terms of educating me in terms of frankly feeding me with the, the pay he gave me. And you couldn’t find a better person to learn about markets and, and macro than, than Dr. Siegel.
01:00:36 [Speaker Changed] And, and, and he’s probably the person that got this inflation cycle more right than anybody else out there when, when the first Cares Act passed, he was the first person saying, you realize how inflationary this fiscal stimulus is gonna be. And everybody looked at him like he had two heads turned out to be dead, right?
01:00:56 [Speaker Changed] He, he’s, he’s such a fantastic individual. I I own a lot of my career success. So others, the two others I would call out Eddie Raja, who is my first trading boss, ex Solemn Brothers Trader is out there in Duncan Heni, who ran markets at, at Bankers Trust, ended up being one of the CIOs at Soros group. You know, three kind of really early mentors and then more, more recently, you know, at, and my former employer was Peter Kraus for giving me the opportunity. Learned a lot about leadership from, from Peter as well as Doug. Peoples learned a lot about investing and, and asset management from Doug. So really, really appreciative of, of there. There’s a long, much longer list of people that I would love to shout out because I’ve, I’ve learned from pretty much everyone I’ve ever worked for.
01:01:53 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk about books. What are some of your favorites? What are you reading right now?
01:01:57 [Speaker Changed] I, I would say I read a lot outside of industry, but things that are going on and then I love me a good like, you know, Navy Seal that is going and taking down the terrorists and defending a country kind of book. So in that genre I read a lot of Brad Taylor, Brad Thor, Vince Flynn, you know, gimme anything that’s like a techno thriller and I’m there when it comes to reading for, for content. One of my favorite books I’ve read kind of more recently in the last 12 months has been Chip war. Like the history of the chip is amazing. The gene was like eye-opening around, you know how genetics really works and there are a lot of, there are a lot of implications to investing and the way you design investing systems, particularly with ai. The hard thing about hard things by Horowitz is a great kind of leadership and startup book and how to think about kind of running an organization. And I’d also throw in that the latest Elon Musk book is, is fantastic. It’s a really interesting read, kind of an interesting personal dissection, but a great read around how to think about value engineering in a physical sense, not in a computer sense. So, so those are, those are a couple that
01:03:21 [Speaker Changed] Stand out. That’s a good list. And our, our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in either investing or asset management?
01:03:32 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, so, so the first thing I’d tell you is read voraciously about markets and then build yourself a model portfolio. Because the best way to learn is to actually be doing things. To use that, to figure out your style and from a style investing style perspective, read about other investors. You know, every investor has a tale of how they’ve lost money and the lessons they’ve learned through that. It’s a lot easier to learn from someone else’s mistakes than from your own. You’ll make plenty of your own, but like, make sure you’re reading about how others failed and, and really try to get to the core of it, not the, the kind of polished version. And, and then the third thing I would recommend them do is be process oriented. Right? Build a process, say, you know, be really conscious about how you’re making decisions and why you’re making decisions and what is going into each of those decisions. Hmm.
01:04:32 [Speaker Changed] And our final question, what do you know about the world of investing in asset management today? You wish you knew 30 or so years ago when you were first getting started.
01:04:42 [Speaker Changed] I leave you with kind of three observations that strike me or, you know, that, that have really kind of accumulated over the last 30 years. So, three things. You know, the first is discipline works over smarts. So the smartest people lose the most money. You know, the most discipline people actually generate strong returns over time. The second thing is, when in doubt, do what works over time. Don’t try to time the market, just, you know, be humble in what you understand about what’s going on, and then do what works over time, because that’s the highest likelihood you are to deliver returns. And then the final thing, you know, I wish I had learned this one earlier in life, is that particularly as an an individual investor, that if you don’t think about after tax returns when you’re making investment decisions, you’re missing the whole game is the highest hit ratio, the lowest cost that you will ever face is to really align your investing approach to be low, to be tax efficient. And I think your taxes change over time, particularly given the fiscal situation. If you’re earning good money, your taxes rates are likely to rise, right? And you should be happy to pay them that you’re, you’re successful enough to pay them. But, you know, make sure you’re investing your money through a tax efficient lens. Huh,
01:06:18 [Speaker Changed] Really, really quite fascinating. Asis, thank you for being so generous with your time. We have been speaking with Asis Shah co-head, and CIO of public investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. If you enjoy this conversation, well check out any of the previous 500 or so we’ve done over the past nine and a half years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you find your favorite podcasts. Check out my new podcast at the Money Short conversations with experts about your money, earning it, spending it, and most importantly, investing it. Find that in your Masters in Business Feed or wherever you get your favorite podcast. I would be remiss if I did not thank the crack staff that helps put these conversations together each week. Sarah Livesey is my audio engineer. Atika is our project manager. Sean Russo is my researcher. Anna Luke is my producer. I’m Barry Riol. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

~~~

 

The post Transcript: Ashish Shah, CIO GSAM appeared first on The Big Picture.

Futures Extend Rebound Into Second Day Ahead Of Tesla Earnings Despite Rising Yields

Zero Hedge -

Futures Extend Rebound Into Second Day Ahead Of Tesla Earnings Despite Rising Yields

US equity futures are higher for the second day, even as small-caps underperform after bond yields rise about +4bps and trade near session highs. As of 7:40am S&P and Nasdaq futures were 0.3% higher after Wall Street’s rebound from a $2 trillion selloff; European stocks also rose on broad-based strength, with only commodity-related sectors in the red; the UK’s FTSE 100 index hit a record high as a rebound that took hold on Monday gathered momentum. Ahead of Tesla's earnings today, the Mag7 are mixed with semis higher pre-mkt after the recent rout. Commodities are stronger led by Ags and Energy with a flat USD. The macro data focus is on Flash PMIs, Home Sales, Regional Mfg Activity indicators; earnings are skewed towards the Industrials sector with TSLA the first Mag7 stock set to report. We will see if the last few trading sessions sufficiently squared positions and if realized stock moves can match the implied moves, expected to be the largest in 1.5 years.

Early results Tuesday were mostly positive, with shares of United Parcel Service and General Motors rising in premarket trading after earnings beats. PepsiCo slipped after reporting falling volumes in North America. But the main event will be the “Magnificent Seven” cohort of tech megacaps, with Tesla set to be the first to report after today’s market close. Next up is Meta Platforms on Wednesday, followed by Microsoft and Alphabet on Thursday. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Abeona Therapeutics shares slumped 48.1% after the biotechnology company’s drug for a rare connective tissue disorder failed to win approval from the US Food and Drug Administration.
  • Cadence Design shares drop 5.8% after the maker of semiconductor design software’s revenue and adjusted earnings per share forecast for 2Q fell short of average analyst estimates. Additionally, the company reported 1Q product and maintenance revenue that missed expectations.
  • JD Sports shares gained after the British sportswear and sneakers retailer agreed to buy Hibbett (HIBB US) for about $1.1 billion to speed up its US expansion, in a deal expected to be accretive in the first full year of ownership. Hibbett gained 19%.
  • Roblox shares rose 4.2% after the game maker was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan, which said it sees a “compelling” entry point for a company that has bookings growth of around 20%, exiting a heavy investment cycle and ramping new revenue streams in advertising as well as commerce.
  • Sunnova Energy shares fell 2.4% after the renewable energy company is cut to sector weight from overweight by KeyBanc Capital Markets. The downgrade reflects a cautious industry-wide stance, despite Sunnova’s “undemanding valuation,” analyst Sophie Karp writes in a note.

Earnings will stay front and center of investors’ minds this week with about 180 companies — over 40% of the S&P 500 market value — report results. The focus on corporate profits comes after a rout fueled by geopolitical fears and signals the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to lower rates. "Whether markets see further consolidation from here is likely to hinge on the assessment of the sustainability of AI demand ahead following the earnings releases," said Eddie Cheung, a senior strategist at Credit Agricole CIB.

The challenge to S&P 500 returns is that companies will have to produce earnings, and outlooks, that support the already elevated multiples. Profits for the Magnificent Seven are forecast to rise 38% in the first quarter from a year ago, dwarfing the overall S&P 500’s 2.4% anticipated year-over-year earnings growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. But excluding Nvidia, the leading chipmaker for AI technology, expected net income growth for the group falls to 23%. Nvidia, which Goldman Sachs Group’s trading desk dubbed “the most important stock on planet Earth,” doesn’t report its earnings for another month.

“We remain focused on the current earnings season, which could re-focus investor attention on solid underlying fundamentals,” Citigroup Inc. strategists Mihir Tirodkar and Beata Manthey wrote in a note. “We would view the recent pullback as a buying opportunity."

Meanwhile, Investor positioning on megacap growth and tech stocks continues to be cut, down from the 97th percentile in early March to the 77th percentile now, according to Deutsche Bank strategists. The group is still the only sector where positioning is above historical average, even if no longer extreme, the strategists wrote, countering the self-serving and incorrect observations by JPM's Marko Kolanovic.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index climbed 1%, with technology and retail shares leading gains, while the mining sector lagged. SAP SE jumped more than 4% as a boom in demand for artificial intelligence fueled the German software company’s growth. Drugmaker Novartis AG added as much as 5% after lifting full-year guidance. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • JD Sports shares gain as much as 7.5% after the British sportswear and sneakers retailer agreed to buy Hibbett for about $1.1 billion to speed up its US expansion
  • Novartis shares advance as much as 5%, the most in more than 9 months, after the Swiss drugmaker reported results for the first quarter that impressed analysts
  • Nordnet rises as much as 9.7%, the most since October, after the digital bank reported its first-quarter results. Both Citi and Morgan Stanley highlight the company’s higher-than-expected brokerage income
  • SAP shares jump as much as 4.4% in Frankfurt after the software company reported quarter-over-quarter acceleration in the growth rate of current cloud backlog, a key indicator of cloud revenue to be booked within next 12 months
  • Akzo Nobel shares fall as much as 6.6%, to the lowest since November, after the coatings maker failed to raise its profit forecast for the year. The stock had risen in five of the six sessions leading up to Tuesday’s earnings report
  • DNB falls as much as 3.9%, the most since October, after the Norwegian lender reported a net interest income miss for the third quarter in a row, with analysts also flagging a low-quality profit beat due to it being attributable to provision income
  • Anglo American falls as much as 3.9% in London after the miner reported first-quarter earnings. Analysts noted that sales were behind production in copper and iron ore, leading to temporary inventory builds
  • Kuehne + Nagel shares drop as much as 3.9% after reporting first-quarter earnings in which pricing and cost performance were offset by lower volumes, according to Citigroup
  • Boliden declines as much as 5.9% after its first-quarter results, with analysts flagging that headline operating profit missed, but underlying operations performed reasonably well
  • OVH shares slide as much as 17%, the biggest drop since March 2023, as weaker-than-expected 2Q growth led the IT services provider to lower its forecast for growth and capex for the year

PMI data on Tuesday reinforced the positive mood in Europe. Private-sector activity advanced to the highest level in almost a year, driven by a buoyant services sector and Germany’s return to growth. And yet, barring any economic surprises, a rate cut in June is a “fait accompli,” European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also rose for a second day as sentiment toward China continued to improve, with easing fears of a wider Middle East conflict offering additional support. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8%, with TSMC and Tencent among the biggest boosts. Most regional markets advanced, though mainland China stocks fell for a third day and Japanese shares trimmed gains as the yen strengthened after Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki’s comments on possible intervention. Hong Kong stocks led the region’s gains after UBS upgraded Chinese stocks to overweight, citing resilient earnings and a growing focus on shareholder returns. Investors are turning more upbeat on the nation’s assets thanks to green shoots in the economy as well as signs of improving corporate performance.

  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with outperformance in Hong Kong due to tech strength, while the mainland lagged amid the PBoC's continued tepid liquidity operations and with the US drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system for aiding the Russian war effort.
  • Nikkei 225 traded indecisively and on both sides of 37,500 after briefly wiping out all of its opening gains.
  • ASX 200 was led by strength in real estate and tech, while the latest flash PMIs from Australia were varied.

“What makes us more positive now on earnings are the early signs of a pick-up in consumption,” UBS strategists including Sunil Tirumalai wrote in a note. “Any rebound in consumer confidence for us means the possibility of household savings flowing into consumption” and eventually markets.

 

In rates, treasuries are under modest pressure with front-end yields higher by ~2bp before a flurry of bond auctions that will test investors’ appetite after yields hit the highest in 2024: the latest weekly supply cycle (2-, 5- and 7-year auctions) is set to kick off with record $69b 2-year later today. US 10-year yields around 4.645%, higher by nearly 4bps on the day. In Europe, gilts underperform their German counterparts after the UK raised its planned gilt issuance for the fiscal year more than expected, as the government’s budget shortfall overshot forecasts; the belly of gilts curve cheapened after DMO announcement, with 5-year UK yields higher by around 2bp. Treasury coupon auctions resume at 1pm New York time with $69b 2-year, followed by 5- and 7-year notes Wednesday and Thursday. The WI 2-year yield at around 4.965% is ~37bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 0.5bp

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.4% to trade near $82.20. Gold extends Monday’s drop, down 1% on the day; Monday’s 2.7% drop was biggest in nearly two years. Bitcoin is modestly softer and holds around the USD 66k mark.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes April Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity (8:30am), S&P manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am), March new home sales and April Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10am). From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta and Nagel, and the BoE’s Haskel and Pill as Fed members have entered quiet period ahead of May 1 policy announcement. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Visa, Tesla, PepsiCo, General Electric, UPS and General Motors.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 5,052.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 505.15
  • MXAP up 0.6% to 170.25
  • MXAPJ up 0.9% to 524.40
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 37,552.16
  • Topix up 0.1% to 2,666.23
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 16,828.93
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,021.98
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 73,852.66
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,683.51
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,623.02
  • Brent Futures up 1.0% to $87.85/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.9% to $2,305.32
  • US Dollar Index down 0.14% to 105.93
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.50%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.0680

Top Overnight News

  • The U.S. is drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system, arming Washington’s top envoy with diplomatic leverage that officials hope will stop Beijing’s commercial support of Russia’s military production, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ
  • Chinese universities and research institutes recently obtained high-end Nvidia artificial intelligence chips through resellers, despite the U.S. widening a ban last year on the sale of such technology to China. RTRS
  • China QE drumbeat grows louder as the country’s finance minister expresses support for the PBOC to resume trading gov’t bonds (although many doubt this would lead to Fed/ECB-style QE). WSJ
  • AAPL's iPhone sales in China fell 19% during the March quarter, according to data from an independent research firm that marked the gadget’s worst performance there since Covid struck around 2020. BBG
  • Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said last week's meeting with his U.S. and South Korean counterparts has laid the groundwork for Tokyo to act against excessive yen moves, issuing the strongest warning to date on the chance of intervention. RTRS
  • ECB’s Luis De Guindos says a June cut is all but guaranteed, but what happens beyond that could depend on the actions of the Fed. WSJ
  • Europe’s flash PMIs for April point to firmer growth (and inflation), with the slump in manufacturing showing signs of easing while services rose to 52.9 (up from 51.5 in Mar and above the Street’s 51.8 forecast), and overall price pressures intensified slightly. S&P
  • Tesla headlines today’s earnings after seven straight days of declines. Margins, its robotaxi and the fate of its lower-cost EV will be the focus. The company is also being sued in California by a former employee who claims it failed to provide required notice for layoffs. BBG
  • MSFT launches smaller AI models that provide “good enough” capabilities for many, but at a fraction of the cost (the models don’t need high-end Nvidia chips to function). NYT

Earnings

  • Nucor Corp (NUE) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 3.46 (exp. 3.66), Revenue 8.14bln (exp. 8.26bln). Expects earnings to decrease in Q2 vs Q1 due to decreased earnings in the steel mills segment. Average scrap and scrap substitute cost per gross ton USD 421 (exp. 399.58). Sales tons to outside customers 6.22mln (exp. 6.41mln).
  • SAP (SAP GY) Q1 24 (EUR): Adj. EPS 0.81 (exp. 0.89), adj. revenue 8.04bln (exp. 8.03bln). Adj. cloud and software revenue EUR 6.96bln (exp. 6.93bln). Adj. cloud revenue EUR 3.93bln (exp. 3.94bln). Adj. cloud revenue in constant currencies +25% (exp. +24.5%). Adj. operating profit EUR 1.53bln (exp. 1.7bln). GUIDANCE: Cloud revenue view between 17.0-17.3bln (prev. 13.66bln in 2023). Cloud and software revenue view at EUR 29.0-29.5bln (prev. 26.92bln in 2023) Adj. Operating profit view EUR 7.6-7.9bln (prev. 6.51bln in 2023). Raises 2023 dividend 7% to EUR 2.20/shr vs 2022 dividend. (Newswires) SAP ADR (SAP) rose 2.1% in the US after-hours. Index Weightings: DAX 40 (10.9% - largest), Euro Stoxx 50 (5% - third largest), Stoxx 600 (1.3%).
  • Renault (RNO FP) Q1 (EUR): Revenue 11.71bln (exp. 11.7bln). Sales +2.6% Y/Y. Strong order book in Europe, reflecting a very good start to the year. Co. is progressing well toward its target of cost reduction to lower EV costs by 40%. The EV market is a bit slower than had expected a few years ago. Talks with Geely and Aramco on the ICE powertrain JV are at an advanced stage.
  • Novartis (NOVN SW) Q1 (USD): Revenue 11.8bln (exp. 11.5bln). Core EPS 1.80 (exp. 1.73); Raises FY24 Net Sales and Core Operating Income guidance. Strong sales momentum in Entresto (+36% cc), Cosentyx (+25% cc), Kesimpta (+66% cc), Kisqali (+54% cc), Pluvicto (+47% cc) and Leqvio (+139% cc). Free cash flow 2.0bln (-24%) - declined due to a prior-year one-timer and timing of payments. Novartis proposes Dr. Giovanni Caforio as Chair of the Board of Directors at AGM 2025. Index Weightings: SMI (15.9% - second largest), Stoxx 600 (2%). Net Sales are expected to grow high-single to low double-digit digits. Core operating income is expected to grow low double-digit to mid-teens.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias after the tech-led rebound stateside. ASX 200 was led by strength in real estate and tech, while the latest flash PMIs from Australia were varied. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively and on both sides of 37,500 after briefly wiping out all of its opening gains. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with outperformance in Hong Kong due to tech strength, while the mainland lagged amid the PBoC's continued tepid liquidity operations and with the US drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system for aiding the Russian war effort.

Top Asian News

  • US is reportedly drafting sanctions that threaten to cut some Chinese banks off from the global financial system as it hopes to stop Beijing's commercial support of Russia's military production, according to WSJ.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that monetary policy will be data dependent and will depend on the economy and inflation, while he said they don't have any pre-set idea on the timing and pace of future rate hikes and if trend inflation accelerates in line with their forecast, they will adjust the degree of monetary support through an interest rate hike. Ueda also stated if their price forecast changes, that will also be a reason to change policy but noted it is hard to say beforehand how long the BoJ should wait in gathering enough data to change policy and would like to leave some scope for adjustment by not pre-committing to a certain policy too much.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said the government is ready to respond appropriately to excessive FX moves and is closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency, while they won't rule out any option and will deal appropriately with excessive FX moves. Suzuki also said he closely communicated with the US and South Korea on forex in Washington and won't deny that last week's discussions in Washington have laid the groundwork for Japan to take appropriate FX action.
  • Senior Japanese ruling party official said recent JPY falls are excessive and out of line with fundamentals; said Japanese authorities could intervene to prop up the JPY at any time
  • Japan Business Lobby Keidanren Chair Tokura said he think Government will make appropriate decision on intervention, via Kyodo

European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.6%) began the session on a strong footing, and has remained at elevated (albeit contained) levels throughout the European morning. There was little reaction to the EZ Flash PMI data. European sectors hold a positive tilt; Tech takes the top spot, benefiting from US tech gains in the prior session, and post-earning strength in SAP (+3.9%). Basic Resources is found at the foot of the pile, amid broader weakness in metals prices. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY U/C) are tentative ahead of a busy earnings slate and the key US PMI data.

Top European News

  • ECB's de Guindos said a June rate cut looks like a set deal, if there are no surprises; end of inflation fight is in sight; largest remaining threat stems from services inflation. There's a clear slowdown in wage dynamics. Inclined to be very cautious what happens after June. Need to take into account what's happening in the US. What the Fed decides is crucial for the global economy. Beed to take impact of FX movements into account. Indicators point toward modest H2 Euro-area recovery.
  • BoE's Haskel said UK food price inflation is "unusually high"; UK labour market is is "extremely tight", via Bloomberg. Inflation will stay high unless the job market weakens.
  • Kantar UK Supermarket update (Apr): Grocery price inflation has fallen to 3.2% over the four weeks to 14 April, marking the fourteenth monthly drop in a row

FX

  • DXY softer having briefly dipped under 106 amid gains in the EUR. Ultimately though, the index is in consolidation mode ahead of GDP and PCE metrics later this week and FOMC on May 1st. For now, the next downside target comes via last week's low at 105.74.
  • EUR is boosted by PMI metrics which saw strong services and composite PMIs overshadow a soft outturn for the manufacturing sector. EUR/USD as high as 1.0695 with the 1.07 level not breached since 12th April; 1.0729 was the high that day.
  • GBP: After a soft session yesterday which dragged the pair to a low of 1.23, Cable is on the front foot thanks to a strong showing for services PMI. 1.2388 is the high watermark thus far.
  • JPY is steady vs. the USD but made another multi-decade high at 154.85. The closer the pair moves to 155, the louder the calls for intervention will get. For now, jawboning is providing minimal help for JPY.
  • Antipodeans are varied the USD with slight outperformance in Aussie after AUD/NZD extended above 1.0900. AUD/USD saw little follow-through from PMI data overnight with the pair lingering around yesterday's best levels after printing a YTD low on Friday.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1059 vs exp. 7.2437 (prev. 7.1043).

Fixed Income

  • USTs initially remained in overnight ranges, though succumbed to selling pressure, sparked by EZ-PMIs, which dragged EGBs lower. USTs matched yesterday's 107.31 high earlier in the session before pulling back to circa 107.25, and further downside could bring Monday's 107.17 low into view.
  • Bunds looked as if they wanted to venture higher in early trade in an extension of yesterday's gains and with de Guindos labelling June as a done deal. However, EZ-wide and regional PMIs acted as a drag thereafter with a strong showing for the services sector, helping composite metrics to beat expectations. 131.47 was the peak before prices made a low at 130.98.
  • Gilts started the session on the back foot thanks to an unwind of yesterday's Ramsden-induced gains and higher-than-expected public borrowing figures which saw the UK DMO revise higher its 2024/25 Gilt issuance remit. Gilts down as low as 96.90 with yesterday's trough at 96.71.
  • UK DMO revises higher its 2024/25 Gilt issuance remit to GBP 277.7bln (prev. GBP 265.3bln)
  • Italy sell EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 3.20% 2026 BTP Short Term and EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 1.50% 2029 & 1.80% 2036 BTPei:
  • Germany sells EUR vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.90% 2026 Schatz: b/c 2.7x (prev. 2.31x) & avg. yield 2.91% (prev. 2.84%) and retention 18.6% (prev. 17.7%)

Commodities

  • Upside across the crude complex underpinned by the Flash PMIs from Europe which (although manufacturing fell short of expectations) pointed to a services-led recovery; however, prices have pulled back from best levels in recent trade. Brent June meanwhile trades in a USD 86.97-97.95/bbl range.
  • Softer trade across precious metals despite the softer Dollar as the geopolitical unwind from yesterday continues, with relatively broad-based losses seen across spot gold, silver and palladium; XAU fell under USD 2,300/oz to find current intraday support around USD 2,291/oz.
  • Base metals are lower across the board with sizeable intraday losses despite the softer Dollar and risk-on tone across the rest of the market. There has been no obvious catalyst for this pullback but some desks cite Asian investors being cautious of the recent rally driven, in part, by speculative trading.
  • Anglo American (AAL LN) Q1 Copper Production 198k tonnes (exp. 191.3k tonnes)

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Israeli occupation forces reportedly stormed the city of Jericho in the eastern West Bank, while it was also reported that Israeli gunboats targeted the seashores in the city of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. In relevant news, sirens sounded in the town of Metulla and the Kiryat Shmona area in northern Israel on suspicion of rocket fire, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets into northern Israel on Monday which drew retaliatory strikes, while it said its attack was in response to recent Israeli strikes on towns and villages in southern Lebanon, according to Associated Press.
  • Israeli raids were reported on the town of Yaroun in southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Hamas said it condemns the statements of US Secretary of State Blinken and his attempt to hold the group responsible for obstructing reaching an agreement, according to Sky News Arabia. Hamas said Blinken's statements contradict the fact that the movement has provided flexibility more than once to facilitate an agreement, while it added that the movement's demands are a permanent ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupation and the return of the displaced to their homes in all areas of the Gaza Strip.
  • US defence official said the Al-Asad airbase in Iraq came under attack from an Iranian proxy group today which is the second attack on a US base in two days, according to Fox.

Geopolitics: Other

  • UK PM Sunak is to unveil an extra GBP 500mln of military funding to Ukraine and announce the largest supply of munitions to Kyiv on Tuesday as he travels to Poland and Germany, according to FT.
  • North Korean state media reported that leader Kim guided the first nuclear counterstrike drills, while it stated that the drills are a clear warning sign to enemies.

US Event calendar

  • 08:30: April Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -18.3
  • 09:45: April S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 52.0, prior 52.1
  • 09:45: April S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 52.0, prior 51.7
  • 09:45: April S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 52.0, prior 51.9
  • 10:00: Revisions: Retail Sales
  • 10:00: April Richmond Fed Business Conditio, prior -8
  • 10:00: April Richmond Fed Index, est. -8, prior -11
  • 10:00: March New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.1%, prior -0.3%
  • 10:00: March New Home Sales, est. 669,000, prior 662,000

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It may not be saying a lot, but markets had their best performance in some time yesterday, as investors became a bit more optimistic about the near-term outlook. Equities recovered, and the S&P 500 (+0.87%) finally managed to advance after a run of 6 consecutive declines. Adding to the positive sentiment were growing hopes that a further escalation in the Middle East would be avoided, and Brent crude oil prices (-0.33%) fell back to their lowest level so far this month, at $87.00/bbl. So there were several pieces of better news for investors, but there’ll be no let-up on the calendar today, as we’ve got lots of earnings reports, including Tesla after the US close. While the Magnificent 7 were up +0.94% yesterday, Tesla was down -3.40%, extending its decline this year to -42.8% and having halved since last July. It's maybe a slight warning for the darlings of the current AI boom that things can change quickly if profits don't follow very high expectations as new technologies grow. Talking of which Nvidia bounced back from their -10.0% decline on Friday and rose +4.35% yesterday.

On top of earnings today, we’ll get an initial indication about how the global economy has performed in Q2, as the April flash PMIs are coming out for the major economies. These will be of particular interest for assessing the nascent recovery in the euro area economy. In March the composite PMI rose above the 50 level for the first time in 10 months. There will also be attention on the price components within the PMIs, especially in the US, where the composite output price index posted a 10-month high of its own last month.

We’ll have to see how those events pan out, but before all that, risk assets managed to post a strong recovery on both sides of the Atlantic. That made a change after three weeks of losses for global equities, with the major indices including the S&P 500 (+0.87%), the NASDAQ (+1.11%) and the STOXX 600 (+0.60%) all advancing. Information technology (+1.28%) and financials (+1.20%) outperformed within the S&P 500. Alongside that, the VIX index of volatility (-1.8pts) fell to 16.94pts, which is its lowest level since Iran launched their recent missile strike on Israel . And here in the UK, the FTSE 100 (+1.62%) even closed at an all-time high, aided by the weakness in sterling (-0.19%), which hit its weakest level against the US Dollar since November.

Henry did a piece yesterday (link here) looking at what happens next after the S&P 500 has seen 6 consecutive declines as we saw before last night's positive close. The subsequent 1-month and 6-month performances have mostly been positive in recent history. Moreover, if the S&P had posted a 7th consecutive decline yesterday, that would have taken us into unusual territory, as it’s something we haven’t seen since February 2020 as Covid-19 spread globally. Indeed, the examples of 7 consecutive losses for the S&P 500 (in the 21st century at least) have either been during a crisis (GFC, US debt ceiling crisis, Euro Crisis, Covid-19) or in anticipation of a pivotal event with significant uncertainty (2016 US election).

As discussed at the top, sentiment was bolstered by the lack of any further escalation in the Middle East. Indeed, yesterday saw Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman say that Israel had received the “necessary response at this stage”. The apparent easing in tensions helped oil prices fall back, and there was also a sharp move lower in gold (-2.59%), which had its biggest daily decline since June 2021. It's down another -0.90% this morning.

The more positive tone was evident across sovereign bonds too. They were supported by the drop in oil prices, which added to hopes that any spike in inflation would prove temporary, and the 1yr US inflation swap (-1.2bps) fell back for a 4th session to 2.71%. In turn, that meant investors grew a bit more hopeful about the prospect of rate cuts, and the amount of Fed rate cuts priced by the December meeting (+1.2bps) inched up to 40bps. Similarly at the ECB, the number of rate cuts priced by December’s meeting (+4.2bps) rose to 78bps.

With more rate cuts being priced in, that helped to push down yields, with those on 10yr bunds (-1.4bps), OATs (-2.7bps) and BTPs (-8.7bps) all moving lower. Admittedly, there was a decent intraday turnaround, as the 10yr bund yield had risen to 2.55% at one point, its highest level since November, before reversing course and ending the day lower at 2.48%. Meanwhile in the US, there was a decline in the 2yr Treasury yield (-1.5bps) to 4.97%, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-1.2bps) fell to 4.61%, as it also pared back its earlier losses, having still being above at 4.66% as Europe finished lunch.

In Asia the Hang Seng (+1.64%) is leading gains on a broker upgrade, with the Nikkei (+0.27%), the KOSPI (+0.20%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.41%) seeing minor gains. Chinese stocks are the worst performers with the CSI (-0.56%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.41%) both trading lower. US stock futures are broadly flat as I type.

Early morning data showed that key gauges of Japan’s manufacturing and service activity improved in April to its highest levels in nearly a year. The au Jibun Bank flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9 in April, as against a level of 48.2 in March. The services PMI advanced to 54.6 in April up from 54.1 in March indicating that the service sector continues to remain the primary driver of growth.

Elsewhere, Australia’s Judo Bank PMI data for April showed the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.9 from 47.3. Meanwhile, the service sector PMI came off slightly from 54.4 to 54.2, though still registering a decent growth environment. The composite PMI hit a 24-month high of 53.6 in April, an improvement from the previous month's 53.3.

To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the April flash PMIs from Europe and the US. Elsewhere, we’ll get US new home sales for March, UK public finances for March, and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for April. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Panetta and Nagel, and the BoE’s Haskel and Pill. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Visa, Tesla, PepsiCo, General Electric, UPS and General Motors.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 08:19

iPhone Sales In China Tumble 19% In Worst Quarter Since 2020

Zero Hedge -

iPhone Sales In China Tumble 19% In Worst Quarter Since 2020

Apple shares are marginally lower in premarket trading in New York following a report that first-quarter iPhone sales in China had been the worst since early Covid. This comes ahead of an earnings report from the world's most valuable company next week and other souring reports from independent research firms tracking the slide in iPhone sales in China. 

Counterpoint reports that overall, China, the world's largest handset market, recorded growth upwards of 1.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year growth. Huawei is a rising star and the best performer of all major brands, growing 69.7% year-over-year, mainly because of the release of its 5G-capable Mate 60 series last fall. Meanwhile, Apple iPhone sales tumbled 19% in the quarter. 

Here are the highlights of the report:

  • China's smartphone sales grew 1.5% YoY and 4.6% QoQ in Q1 2024, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive YoY growth.
  • Huawei stood out as the best performer among all OEMs during the quarter, enjoying 69.7% YoY growth; HONOR also saw double-digit growth.
  • vivo took the top spot, followed by HONOR and Apple.
  • Apple's sales dropped 19.1% YoY in Q1 as Huawei's comeback directly impacted the premium segment.
  • The market is expected to see low single-digit YoY growth in 2024.

"Momentum seems to be building on a recovery as China's smartphone sales continued their growth trajectory and grew 4.6% QoQ in Q1 2024. The sales promotions during the Chinese New Year festivities were the biggest growth driver. The average weekly sales during the four weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year saw a robust growth of 20% when compared to a normal week, according to Counterpoint's China Smartphone Weekly Model Sales Tracker," Counterpoint's Associate Director Ethan Qi wrote in a statement. 

Counterpoint's Senior Research Analyst Ivan Lam said on the iPhone recovery story, "We are seeing slow but steady improvement from week to week, so momentum could be shifting. For the second quarter, the possibility of new color options combined with aggressive sales initiatives could bring the brand back into positive territory; and of course, we are waiting to see what its AI features will offer come WWDC in June. That has the potential to move the needle significantly longer term."

Counterpoint's data was published one week after International Data Corporation reported that iPhone shipments plunged by 10% in the quarter. 

Since early January, institutional desks, BarclaysPiper Sandlerand Jefferies have warned about a downturn in iPhone sales, mainly because of a slowdown in the world's largest handset market. 

While Goldman removed Apple from its "Conviction List" and Evercore ISI dropped Apple from its "Tactical Outperform" list earlier this year, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan named Apple the top pick for 2024, citing a "rich catalyst path with defensive cash flows." 

Apple shares have been widely underperforming the S&P500 index on numerous reports this year on weaker iPhone demand in China. 

Just 56% of the analysts tracked by Bloomberg have buy ratings on Apple, while the percentage of bulls for Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms is around 85%.

Besides waning iPhone sales in China, investors have been given the impression that the company lags in the artificial intelligence race. Just weeks ago, there were reports that the company nuked its car project. Plus, the $4,000 Apple Vision Pro goggles do not appear to be taking off as expected. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 07:45

Which Major City Will Completely Collapse First – Los Angeles, Chicago, Or New York City?

Zero Hedge -

Which Major City Will Completely Collapse First – Los Angeles, Chicago, Or New York City?

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

In 2024, virtually all major U.S. cities have certain things in common.  First of all, if you visit the downtown area of one of our major cities you are likely to see garbage, human excrement and graffiti all over the place.  As you will see below, some of our core urban areas literally look like they belong in a third world country.  Most of our politicians don’t seem too concerned about doing anything to clean up all the filth, and so it shouldn’t be a surprise that rat populations are absolutely exploding all over the country.  In some of our largest cities, the total rat population is numbered in the millions.  Meanwhile, rampant theft, out of control violence, endless migration, predatory gangs and the worst drug crisis in the entire history of our nation have combined to create a “perfect storm” of social decay that is unlike anything that any of us have ever seen before.  Millions of law-abiding citizens and countless businesses have been fleeing America’s largest cities, and property values in our core urban areas have been absolutely crashingWe really are in the early stages of a full-blown societal “collapse”, and things just keep getting worse with each passing day.

In this article, I want to focus on the three largest metropolitan areas in the United States: New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.

John Williams recently took his camera with him as he walked through downtown Los Angeles, and he described what he witnessed as “hell”…

Decades of failed policies have transformed one of the greatest cities in the entire country into one of the worst.

At this point, theft has become so rampant that even the ultra-progressive politicians in California have come to the conclusion that something must be done.

So several bills that would “crack down on shoplifting” have been introduced in the state legislature

Shoplifters beware.

The California Assembly has introduced a comprehensive package of seven bills aimed at addressing the rising concerns over retail theft across the state.

One of the key initiatives is Assembly Bill 2943, jointly authored by Assemblymember Rick Chavez Zbur (D) and Speaker Robert Rivas (D). The bill targets serial retail thieves by introducing a new crime with penalties of up to three years behind bars for possession of stolen property with intent to resell. It also allows for the aggregation of similar thefts from different victims to charge grand theft, under specific criteria.

Hopefully something will get done, because right now a criminal in the state of California can “literally walk into a retail store every single day of the year and steaI $949 worth of merchandise” and never spend a single minute in jail.

Los Angeles has become a paradise for shoplifters, but many would argue that things are even worse in the Big Apple.

As I discussed a few days ago, New York City has “a $4.4 billion shoplifting economy”.

And approximately 90,000 packages are stolen in New York City every single day.

This is just one of the reasons why we have seen a mass exodus.

Countless New Yorkers have already left for greener pastures, and lots more are thinking of leaving

About 7 million New Yorkers plan to leave the state, a new survey revealed this month.

In a new Marist poll, 37 percent of New Yorkers—roughly 7 million people—said they plan to move away. The number was slightly more concentrated among Republicans, as 46 percent said they plan to leave the state compared to just 29 percent of Democrats.

Unsurprisingly, many of those that are fleeing are heading to Florida

For many, Florida remains one of the top places to move, but Southern states in general have been recording the biggest influx in transplants.

According to Realtor.com, Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, Tampa and Orlando remain some of the top locations for New Yorkers to start again.

I wouldn’t want to live in the Big Apple either.

The rat problem alone would be enough for me to move.

It just continues to escalate, and politicians are now proposing to use “rat contraceptives” to deal with “the millions of rats lurking in subway stations and empty lots”…

In New York City, the idea to distribute rat contraceptives got fresh attention in city government Thursday following the death of an escaped zoo owl, known as Flaco, who was found dead with rat poison in his system.

City Council Member Shaun Abreu proposed a city ordinance Thursday that would establish a pilot program for controlling the millions of rats lurking in subway stations and empty lots by using birth control instead of lethal chemicals. Abreu, chair of the Committee on Sanitation and Solid Waste Management, said the contraceptives also are more ethical and humane than other methods.

Unfortunately, New York City doesn’t have the worst rat problem in America.

That title actually belongs to the city of Chicago

Chicago has once again been declared the rattiest city in the U.S. according to Orkin’s annual ranking.

Los Angeles surpassed New York on this year’s list now holding the #2 spot and bringing the Big Apple down to #3, Orkin shared.

Other notable shifts included Houston, which moved 10 spots up to #20, and Charlotte, North Carolina that rose 16 spots to #21.

Somehow, the rat problem in Chicago has gone to an entirely new level in 2024.

In fact, one local resident says that it is now the worst that she has ever seen in her entire lifetime

A resurgence of rats has gotten out of control in Chicago’s Portage Park neighborhood, multiple residents explained Friday as they called for city leaders to take further action.

Diana Gazda, a resident of the Far Northwest Side community for seven decades, said she has never seen an infestation like it.

“We never had a rat problem like this,” she stated. “I’ve been here 71 years in my house.”

In addition to being world famous for rats, the Windy City is also world famous for violence.

In Chicago, you can be gunned down at any time of the day or night.

Nobody is safe, and that is especially true for police officers

A Chicago police officer was shot to death early Sunday in Gage Park on the Southwest Side in what sources are saying was an apparent carjacking.

Officers responded to a ShotSpotter alert about 2:55 a.m. and found Officer Luis Huesca with multiple gunshot wounds in the 3100 block of West 56th Street, a police spokesperson said in a statement.

Huesca, 30, was driving home from work, according to city officials. Huesca, who was still wearing his uniform, was taken to University of Chicago Medical Center, where he was pronounced dead.

So which of these cities will completely collapse first?

I think that is a very good question.

They are all headed downhill very rapidly, and they are all being run by radical leftists.

Of course the exact same things could be said about dozens of other U.S. cities.

For years, I have been warning my readers about the “cultural transformation” that has been taking place in America.

How we raise our kids really matters.

We have been failing them for decades, and now the consequences can be very clearly seen in the streets of our major cities.

A horrific societal collapse is upon us, and yet this nation continues to refuse to change direction.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 07:20

Homebuyer Payment Hits Record High As Mortgage Rates Climb Back Above 7% For The First Time In 2024

Zero Hedge -

Homebuyer Payment Hits Record High As Mortgage Rates Climb Back Above 7% For The First Time In 2024

Mortgage rates in the United States climbed to the highest level since November 2023 last week, as higher-than-expected inflation readings have dashed hopes of the Fed starting to cut rates soon.

As Statista's Felix Richter reports, according to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 7.10 percent in the week ended April 18, making it difficult for many would-be homebuyers to afford a house.

 Mortgage Rates Climb Past 7% for the First Time in 2024 | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Along with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, mortgage rates have climbed by almost 4 percentage points since the beginning of 2022, threatening to push more and more potential buyers out of the market, especially as high rents and other costs of living make it increasingly difficult to save for a significant down payment.

Making things even more difficult, high mortgage rates don't just affect the demand side of the market.

Supply is also constrained as prospective sellers stay put to avoid taking out a new mortgage at a much higher rate than their current one.

Source: Bloomberg

This in turn has kept home prices elevated, or at least kept them from fully reflecting the significantly higher mortgage rates compared to two years ago.

"When rates go up, people hunker down and don’t spend," mortgage broker Rocke Andrews told Realtor.com.

"They’ve been told for so long that rates are coming down, so they just postpone."

And they made need a little more patience.

Last week, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that policymakers were in no rush to cut rates, making it unlikely for mortgage rates, which tend to follow the same trajectory as the Fed's policy rate, to come down meaningfully anytime soon.

In fact, according to brokerage Redfin, U.S. homebuyers face the prospect of having to pay a “record” amount in monthly mortgage payments to buy a house amid extremely high prices and elevated mortgage rates.

“The median U.S. home-sale price increased 5 percent from a year earlier during the four weeks ending April 14, bringing it to $380,250 - just $3,095 shy of June 2022’s all-time high,” said an April 18 press release from Redfin.

“The average daily mortgage rate this week surpassed 7.4 percent, the highest level since last November, after a hotter-than-expected inflation report and the Fed’s confirmation that interest-rate cuts will be delayed.”

The 12-month inflation had jumped 0.3 percent, to 3.5 percent in March.

“The combination of high mortgage rates and prices have brought homebuyers’ median monthly housing payment to a record $2,775, up 11 percent year over year.”

According to a recent analysis by Bankrate, Americans now need an annual income of $110,871 to afford a median-priced home of $402,343. This is an almost 50 percent increase over a period of just four years.

A six-figure annual income is now mandatory to afford a median-priced home in 22 states and the District of Columbia.

Four years ago, only six states and the District of Columbia had such a high requirement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 06:55

If We Want Something As Good But More Reliable, It'll Cost Much More Money

Zero Hedge -

If We Want Something As Good But More Reliable, It'll Cost Much More Money

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Utopia?

“We added solar and wind like it was going out of style,” said the CIO of the well-regarded US fund. “We have ample land, wind in the middle of the country.” Federal subsidies make electricity almost free. “But it’s a Catch-22 where we’re adding capacity, but reliability is declining.” In Feb 2021 Texas suffered a catastrophic electrical grid failure. Renewables went offline when they were most needed. Gas turbines froze too. 4mm homes went without power. Hundreds died. “Now policymakers across the spectrum seem to be acknowledging the need for both renewables and hydrocarbons.”

“Back in 2018 there was a utopian vision,” continued the same CIO.

“The economics were there, the physics allowed it, all we needed was political will.”

Net zero could be achieved painlessly, while boosting growth.

“But we’ve learned wind turbines frequently break, and don’t recycle well. They kill lots of large birds. Electric cars take a year to repair when you crash them.”

The residual values are lousy when you sell them.

“So now we’re asking better questions and considering the true costs and benefits. The tradeoffs. We’re growing up.”

“Asking good questions is always better for society,” said the CIO.

There is pushback on the dogmatic view that the future of the world hangs in the balance, and those taking the most extreme positions on the matter have been undermined by an unwillingness to consider nuclear at any price,” he said.

“European banks will not fund hydrocarbons, it’s almost a religious belief at this point. But we will fund them because they’re a vital part of tomorrow’s energy mix and we can earn double-digit returns doing so.”

“If we want to build BMWs using windmills, it’s going to cost a lot to do it, and historically that’s the kind of thing the government must subsidize,” said the CIO. “It’s a societal good, like building parks in cities.” It is not a purely economic decision from the private sector’s standpoint. “A chip factory is being built in Taylor Texas with $6bln in Federal subsidies. Samsung is investing more than $30bln. That’s a societal good too. Because for security reasons, we may all sleep better at night buying some of our chips from Taylor instead of Taipei. But they may well cost more.”

Ultimately, these decisions are about whether we’re willing to settle for something less good in exchange for something more reliable,” continued the CIO.

“If we want something as good and more reliable, it’ll cost more money. A way to think about these increased costs is a form of insurance.”

Insuring our children’s futures against the risk of cataclysmic climate change. Insuring our access to advanced chips against military conflict over Taiwan.

Thinking through long-term risks is always a healthy exercise, and insuring against them sometimes requires government funding.”

“Europe made some naïve choices when they went through this exercise,” he said. “Germany shut all its nuclear power plants.” Which required it to increase its dependency on cheap Russian gas, strengthening Putin’s hand, which he then played in Ukraine. “They were going the opposite way; they were essentially selling insurance instead of buying it.”

This of course, is why it is vital that societies ask good questions and consider the true costs and benefits of big decisions.

And the consequence is that Europe is deindustrializing. It’s stunning.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 06:30

Are Americans Moving From Blue To Red States?

Zero Hedge -

Are Americans Moving From Blue To Red States?

In the last couple of years, large U.S. states where a majority of voters support Democrats – so-called blue states – have been losing population, while some large red states, where there is majority support for Republicans, have gained residents.

An analysis of Census Bureau data shows that there are in fact some big movements of people from states currently defined as blue to those currently defined as red.

However, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, the situation is more accurately described as more people exiting certain blue states – for example New York and California – and heading to other states in general, may they be red or blue.

In 2005 and 2022 alike, those moving from blue states have been almost equally splitting up between blue and red states.

Only their total number has been increasing, from 3.7 million or 2.4 percent of blue states’ population to 4.6 million or 2.7 percent of population in the given years, boosting migration to both red and other blue states.

 Are Americans Moving From Blue to Red States? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

At the same time, migration from red states has not changed as much – increasing only from 3.3 million in 2005 to 3.6 million in 2022. As in blue states, the split of destinations has stayed almost exactly constant over the years, with red staters choosing other red states 61-62 percent of the time and blue states only 38-39 percent of times.

This means that compared with the mid-2000s, blue states now transfer more than 500,000 more residents towards red states annually (and about as many within blue states). Inflows from red states to blue states have only increased by a little more than 100,000 per year in this time frame.

So while it might be true that a high cost of living and a (perceived) low quality of life is driving people away from certain blue states, this is not driving them towards red states more than in the past, relatively speaking.

Migration from abroad is also boosting U.S. populations.

In 2022, around 1 million more people immigrated into the United States than left the country. International migrants had traditionally chosen larger cities in both red and blue states, but this type of migration has diversified over the past decades.

While this leaves both states like Texas and New York with fewer (official) international arrivals, it has had a more detrimental effect in blue states that already suffer from domestic out-migration.

For the sake of this analysis, states are assigned the designation blue or red based on their vote in the last three presidential elections. For comparability, the definition of red states and blue states was not changed for 2005. Colorado, Virginia and Nevada – where domestic immigration has boomed recently – would technically be defined as red states, not blue, in 2005. However, patterns of migrations for these states are consistent between 2005 and 2022 instead of changing upon their reorientation, also supporting the hypothesis that U.S. migration flows are relatively constant and dependent on factors like location and proximity rather than politics.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 05:45

Swiss Bitcoiners Renew Efforts To Orange-Pill The Country's Central Bank

Zero Hedge -

Swiss Bitcoiners Renew Efforts To Orange-Pill The Country's Central Bank

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Several Swiss-based Bitcoiners are renewing attempts to get the Swiss National Bank to hold Bitcoin in its reserves by holding a referendum to change the country’s constitution — but they will need to convince more than 100,000 locals to sign a petition first.

Adding Bitcoin to the central bank’s reserves would help protect the country’s “sovereignty and neutrality” in an increasingly uncertain world, said Yves Bennaïm, founder and chairman of 2B4CH, a nonprofit think tank leading the charge. 

“We are in the process of completing the organizational preparations for the committee and preparing the documents that must be submitted to the State Chancellery in order to start the process,” Bennaïm told Swiss news outlet Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) on April 20.

However, 100,000 signatures from Swiss nationals are needed within 18 months for a referendum to be held on issues brought about by Swiss nationals or groups — a threshold that plagued 2B4CH’s first attempt in October 2021.

2B4CH first launched the “Bitcoin Initiative” around that time, stating its mission was to add Bitcoin as a reserve currency to Article 99-3 of the Swiss Federal Constitution.

Switzerland boasts a population of 8.77 million, meaning about 1.15% of locals will need to sign the petition.

Source: Remo Uherek

“By including Bitcoin in its reserves, Switzerland would mark its independence from the European Central Bank. Such a step would strengthen our neutrality,” said Luzius Meisser, president of the Bitcoin-focused trading platform Bitcoin Suisse, who is assisting Bennaïm with the initiative.

Meisser will try to convince the Swiss National Bank about the benefits of adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet in an April 26 meeting. He’ll have three minutes to plead his case.

The executive previously tried to convince the central bank to buy 1 billion Swiss francs ($1.1 billion) of Bitcoin each month as an alternative to German government bonds in March 2022, according to NZZ.

However, Swiss National Bank Chair Thomas Jordan reportedly said Bitcoin didn’t meet the requirements for SNB to add it as a reserve currency in April 2022.

Meisser is now claiming that Switzerland would be 30 billion Swiss francs ($32.9 billion) richer had the central bank followed his suggestion in 2022 and that leaving it any later risks the chances of other central banks swooping in on Bitcoin, forcing Switzerland to buy at “significantly higher prices than everyone else,” he said.

However, Leon Curti, head of research at asset manager Digital Asset Solutions, is hopeful that the recent approvals of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States and Hong Kong will influence the Swiss National Bank to invest in Bitcoin.

The NZZ article brought about a positive response from Joana Cotar, a German politician and Bitcoin activist who strongly opposes a European Union-backed digital currency.

Cointelegraph reached out to 2B4CH but didn’t receive an immediate response.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 05:00

Poland "Ready" To Host NATO Nuclear Weapons, President Duda Says

Zero Hedge -

Poland "Ready" To Host NATO Nuclear Weapons, President Duda Says

Poland has upped the nuclear rhetoric with Russia, on Monday suggesting NATO nuclear warheads could soon be positioned on its territory. It comes amid general NATO euphoria in the wake of the US House finally passing Biden's giant aid package for Ukraine, despite widespread acknowledgement that Ukrainian forces are being beaten by Russia.

Polish President Andrzej Duda declared in a fresh and hugely provocative statement that Poland is "ready" to host nuclear weapons should NATO decide to do so as reinforcement of its eastern flank. The words were issued in an interview published Monday by Polish outlet Fakt.

President Andrzej Duda, file image

"Russia is increasingly militarizing the Königsberg oblast (Kaliningrad). Recently, it has been relocating its nuclear weapons to Belarus,” Duda continued, apparently wanting to match and mirror Russian moves.

"If our allies decide to deploy nuclear weapons as part of nuclear sharing on our territory as well, in order to strengthen the security of NATO's eastern flank, we are ready for it," he added.

Duda additionally said while discussing the topic of NATO's nuclear sharing program in the interview that Warsaw and Washington have been in talks "for some time."

"I've already talked about it several times. I must admit that when asked about it, I declared our readiness," he emphasized.

But the reality is Brussels and Washington are likely to be deeply hesitant based on the nuclear threats emanating from Moscow of late. Moving NATO warheads to Polish soil would most certainly greatly intensify the already somewhat high nuclear tensions, and at a moment the proxy war in Ukraine shows no sings of abating.

While three NATO members are officially nuclear weapons states - the United States, France and the United Kingdom – others are authorized to host nukes (typically 'tactical' nuclear weapons). They are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.

Apparently Poland is now throwing its name in the hat for NATO's nuclear-sharing program, which would expand Western nuke placement right up to Russia's backyard...

You will find more infographics at Statista

In the new Polish media interview, President Duda also addressed his positive relationship with Republican frontrunner and former President Donald Trump. He spoke fondly of Turmp, saying the two find agreement on "a lot of common topics."

“He is a politician with whom I directly cooperated with the United States for four years when he was the president of the United States,” Duda said. "I want to emphasize very strongly that we have been friends since then. I really like talking to him, because he is an extremely interesting personality and has a lot of experience, both political and business."

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 04:15

Sweden Wants EU To Sanction Russia's Shadow Fleet And Ban Its LNG

Zero Hedge -

Sweden Wants EU To Sanction Russia's Shadow Fleet And Ban Its LNG

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

The next round of EU sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine should include measures to address the shadow fleet of tankers helping Russia move its oil and a ban on EU imports of Russian LNG, Sweden’s foreign minister said on Monday.  

“Adopting the 14th sanctions package is one of the most important things,” Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said arriving at an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Luxembourg, as carried by Reuters.

“We will see to it that we both include an import ban on liquefied natural gas as well as measures to curb the Russian shadow fleet,” the Swedish minister added.

The EU has just started discussions on the 14th package of sanctions and it is not expected to adopt the measure anytime soon.

EU member states are divided on a ban on LNG imports. Sweden and the Baltic countries press for a ban, but other member states and the EU energy regulator say Europe is now much more dependent on LNG to afford an immediate ban on imports of LNG from Russia.

The European Union should be careful in its efforts to ditch Russian LNG as it should protect its security of gas supply, the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, ACER, said in a report last week.

As the EU aims to completely end its reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027, “the reduction of Russian LNG imports should be considered in gradual steps starting with spot Russian LNG imports,” ACER said in its report.

“While such measures may target to reduce dependence on Russian gas, it’s important to note that substantial volumes have already been contracted under long-term LNG agreements before the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” the EU regulator said.

“Hence, reductions in Russian LNG imports should be approached with caution, particularly in light of the imminent expiration of the ship-or-pay transit contract for gas pipeline supply from Russia to Europe via Ukraine by the end of 2024.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 03:30

EU Leaders Trying To Convince Greece & Spain To 'Sacrifice' Their Own Anti-Air Defenses For Ukraine

Zero Hedge -

EU Leaders Trying To Convince Greece & Spain To 'Sacrifice' Their Own Anti-Air Defenses For Ukraine

NATO and European Union leaders are literally pressuring member states to sacrifice their own national defense for the sake of Ukraine, part of the ongoing saga of desperation which has led some Western nations to deplete domestic arms and ammo stockpiles.

A disturbing report by Financial Times published Monday says Greece and Spain are under intensifying pressure from Western allies to give up what few Patriot anti-air defense systems that they possess.

Image via Greek City Times

Russia has continued to decimate Ukraine's energy, logistics, and communications infrastructure via superior airpower - and Kiev has had few options, limiting its response. President Putin has said the stepped-up air attacks are in direct retaliation to Ukraine's own cross-border drone attacks on Russian oil facilities. Drones have also frequently been sent over Crimea.

President Volodymyr Zelensky issued an urgent appeal Sunday on X, writing that "Patriots can only be called air defense systems if they work and save lives rather than standing immobile somewhere in storage bases."

Commenting on Ukraine's ongoing pleading, one Western official was cited in FT as saying, "We all know who has them, we all know where they are, and we all know who really needs them."

Only Germany has so far answered the call by lately providing a single Patriot battery. FT reported on back-to-back meetings of EU foreign and defense ministers of the last days, where it's been decided that Greece and Spain's anti-air systems aren't really crucial to their homeland defense:

Other EU leaders used a summit in Brussels last week to personally urge Spanish and Greek prime ministers Pedro Sánchez and Kyriakos Mitsotakis to donate some of their systems to Ukraine, according to people briefed on the discussions.

The two leaders, whose armed forces possess between them more than a dozen Patriot systems plus others such as S-300s, were told their need was not as great as Ukraine’s and that they did not face any imminent threat.

An EU diplomat said, "There are countries that are not in immediate need of their air defense systems, to be very honest." This as "Each country is being asked to decide what it can spare," according to the statement. Countries like Poland or those in the Baltics and Eastern Europe are considered too vulnerable at this moment to be asked to give up their defenses.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell is also ramping up the pressure, saying "I don’t have Patriots in Brussels, they are in the capitals, and it is up to them to take decisions."

So this is what it has come to: first European populations are dubiously told that Putin is eyeing expansion of the war deeper into Europe, and next Western countries are told to make drastic decisions which severely weaken their own national security

Greece in particular has faced long-running threats from Turkey, with the geopolitical rivals locked in a dispute over maritime territory which has at times very nearly resulted in a shooting war. This has happened on several occasions in the last couple of years. So certainly the Greek population is going to balk when EU leaders in faraway capitals lecture Greece about 'not really needing' anti-air protection. And if they are sent to Ukraine, there's a chance they could be destroyed anyway. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 02:45

NATO's Never-Ending War: The 75-Year-Old Bully Is Faltering

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NATO's Never-Ending War: The 75-Year-Old Bully Is Faltering

Authored by Ramzy Baroud via Counterpunch.org,

The western discourse on the circumstances behind the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 75 years ago, is hardly convincing.

Yet, that over-simplified discourse must be examined in order for the current decline of the organization to be appreciated beyond the self-serving politics of NATO’s members.

The history records page of the US State Department speaks of the invention of NATO in a language suitable for a US high school history book.

“After the destruction of the Second World War, the nations of Europe struggled to rebuild their economies and ensure their security,” it reads, which compelled the US to take action: “(integrating) Europe as vital to the prevention of communist expansion across the continent.”

This is the typical logic of NATO’s early doctrine. It can be gleaned from most of the statements made by Western countries that established and continue to dominate the organization.

The language oscillates between a friendly discourse – for example, Harry Truman’s reference to NATO as a ‘neighborly act’ – and a threatening one, also Truman’s tough language against “those who might foster the criminal idea of having recourse to war.”

The reality, however, remains vastly different.

Indeed, the US did emerge much stronger, militarily and economically after WWII. That was reflected in the Marshall Plan, an ‘Economic Recovery Plan’, which was a strategic, not a charitable act. It engineered the economic recovery of selected countries who would become the US’ global allies for decades to come.

Upon its establishment, then Canadian Secretary of State Lester Pearson referred to the NATO ‘community’ as part of the ‘world community’, linking the strength of the former to “preserving the peace” for the latter.

As innocuous as such language may seem, it introduced a paternal relationship between the US-dominated NATO and the rest of the world. Thus, it allowed the powerful members of the organization to define, on behalf of the rest of the world – and often outside the umbrella of the United Nations – such notions as ‘peace’, ‘security’, ‘threat’, and, ultimately, ‘terrorism’.

A case in point is that the first major conflict instigated by NATO did not target external threats to Europe or US territories, but took place thousands of miles away, on the Korean Peninsula.

The west’s political discourse wanted to view the civil war in the Peninsula, prior to NATO’s intervention as an example of “communist aggression”. This ‘aggression’ supposedly forced NATO’s hands to react. Needless to say, the Korean War (1950-53) was a destructive one.

The 75 years since then proved the flimsiness of that argument. The Soviet Union has long been dismantled, and North Korea has been desperately fighting to break out of its isolation. Yet, a fractious state of no war-no peace remains in place. It could turn into an outright war at any time.

However, what the war has achieved is something entirely different. The constant state of non-peace provides a justification for the permanent US military presence in the region.

Similar outcomes followed most of NATO’s other interventions: Iraq (1991 and 2003), Yugoslavia (1999), Afghanistan (2001), Libya (2011) and so on.

Yet, the ability to start or exacerbate conflicts, and the inability, or perhaps unwillingness to permanently end wars, is not the real crisis at NATO, 75 years after its establishment.

In an article marking the anniversary, UK Secretary of Defense, Grant Shapps wrote in the Daily Telegraph that NATO must accept that it is now in a “pre-war world”.

He lashed out at those NATO members who were “still failing” to meet the minimally required spending on defense, which equals to two percent of total national GDPs. “We cannot afford to play Russian roulette with our future,” he wrote.

Shapps’ anxieties are often expressed by other top NATO leaders and officials, who are either warning of an imminent war with Russia or criticizing each other for the dwindling influence of the once-powerful organization.

Much of that blame was placed on former US President Donald Trump, who outright threatened to leave NATO during his only term in office.

Trump’s disparaging comments and threats, however, were hardly the instigator of the crisis.

They were symptoms of growing problems, which have continued for years after Trump’s dramatic exit from the White House.

NATO’s crisis can be summarized as this:

  • First, the geopolitical formations that existed following the collapse of the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact no longer exist.

  • Second, the main aspect of the new global competition cannot be reduced to military terms. Rather, it is economic.

  • Third, Europe is now largely dependent on energy sources, trade and even technological integration with countries that the US perceives as enemies: China, Russia and others. Therefore, if Europe allows itself to subscribe to the US polarized language on what constitutes enemies and allies it will pay a heavy price, especially as EU economies are already struggling under the weight of continued wars and constant disruption of energy supplies.

  • Fourth, fixing all of these challenges and more through the dropping of bombs is no longer an option. The ‘enemy’ is far too strong, and the changing nature of warfare makes traditional war largely ineffectual.

Though the world has greatly changed, NATO remains committed to a political doctrine from a bygone era. And even if the two percent threshold is met, the problem will not go away.

It is time for NATO to re-examine its 75-year-old legacy, and be courageous enough to change directions altogether – instead of opting for a state of non-peace, actually seeking real peace.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 02:00

"What Kind Of American Are You?"

Zero Hedge -

"What Kind Of American Are You?"

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

War, What's It Good For?

We have only seen a handful of movies in a theater over the last decade. Ever since the kids grew up, there hasn’t been a reason to spend too much for too little. Regal Cinemas in Oaks was the place to go in the old days. It had 24 theaters and was always packed. You could never get a parking spot close to the venue. The restaurant near the theater always had a line and you usually had to wait 30 minutes to get a seat.

We decided to go and see Civil War on Friday night, and boy times have changed. Regal Cinemas went bankrupt a few years ago after Covid, and the theater was taken over by some local businessmen. They now play four or five movies, but $10 per ticket is pretty reasonable compared to the chains. Instead of hundreds of cars in the parking lot, there were about 30 cars. We expected a long wait time at the PJ Whelihans, but there were dozens of seats at the bar and booths.

When we ventured over to the cinema, there was no one checking that we had tickets, and it was like a ghost town. A Friday night at the movies a decade ago was a big deal. The place would have been bustling. I can’t see this place making it over the long haul.

There were eight people there to see Civil War. The previews were so loud, we thought we were going to need ear plugs. The sound became more reasonable once the movie started.

I had read a few reviews of Civil War and they leaned negative, for a myriad of reasons. Some people seemed disappointed and angry that the director did not pick a side, or even make a single political statement.

My interest in this movie stemmed from the snippet shown in previews, where a guy holding some journalists at gunpoint asks them who they are, they respond “Americans”, and he asks them:

I think that is a profound question, as this country has already split into at least two enemy camps, with the leftists already fighting the war using any means necessary.

Laws and morality no longer matter during this time of coming conflict. Knowing we are in the back end of this Fourth Turning, there is a high likelihood of civil and/or global war in the next few years. Whenever I point this out, many scorn the possibility of civil war. Some think keyboard warriors will never actually have the guts to get into a shooting war with the government and/ or leftist fanatics.

I was hoping the movie would provide some thought provoking fodder giving me an inkling of what might be on the near term horizon. The movie is more about the journalist characters traveling from NYC to Washington DC in order to get an interview with the embattled president. There was no background regarding what started the civil war, who were the good guys, and whether the entire country was involved. The entire movie took place in the eastern U.S.

My observations are as follows:

  • The conflict was between the Western Forces versus the existing U.S. government forces. The Western Forces constituted Texas and California, with Florida leaning in their direction. It was not clear whether all the states chose a side. Since both sides had high tech military weapons, the assumption is the U.S. military split its allegiance. That means rogue generals did what southern generals did in 1860.

  • For most of the movie, you can’t tell who is fighting who. That seems realistic in a civil war scenario. The scene where the journalists are asked “What kind of American are you?” captures how confusing and chaotic it would be. I don’t think the guy dressed in military garb is on either side. They were dumping bodies into a hole. Without anyone to enforce laws, warlords will rise up and execute retribution on locals they consider enemies. Every local community will become a battleground. Neighbors versus neighbors, families versus families. With 300 million guns, there will be blood.

  • Two characters let it be known that their parents have stayed on their farms in Missouri and Colorado, pretending their is no civil war. They seemed dismayed that they wouldn’t choose sides. That made me wonder whether those who choose to not participate in the coming civil war will be able to work their farms in peace. Since modern society will come to a grinding halt, with shortages of fuel and food, I’m afraid small farmers will come under attack by the hungry masses. It will be essential for small communities of like minded folk to form militias to protect their farms and communities.

  • We all know our existing uni-party government is corrupt, evil and hates us. Whether we call it the Deep State, corrupt oligarchy, or corporate fascist totalitarians, it is clear they are our enemy. They are continuing to implement their Great Reset/Great Taking scheme, and will only be stopped through violent means. This movie did not take sides, but did imply the existing government will be defeated. The question is who or what takes their place. Sadly, it is unlikely that a republic will be reborn from the ashes of this empire of debt, delusion and decay.

Civil War was a sobering and depressing movie. I think it is a foreshadowing of what lies ahead.

Innocent people will die. Senseless slaughter will be the norm. The boundaries between good and evil will blur. Right and wrong will become meaningless. It will be unclear who are the good guys and who are the bad guys. Conflict is upon us. Will the cessation of our Constitution before the upcoming election be the spark that starts this civil war? Where and when will our Fort Sumter moment happen? I don’t know, but I fear it is close upon us.

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.” – Thomas Jefferson in a letter to John Adams

*  *  *

To donate to Jim's blog via Stripe, click here.
 

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 23:40

US & Philippines Kick Off Largest Ever Joint Drills On 'China's Doorstep'

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US & Philippines Kick Off Largest Ever Joint Drills On 'China's Doorstep'

Tensions are soaring in waters off China as the US and its close regional ally the Philippines launched expansive joint war drills Monday, not far from hotly disputed maritime areas.

At over 16,000 troops, the exercises called the "Balikatan" drills (or "shoulder to shoulder") mark the largest ever conducted between the two allies. "The 2024 iteration is not only the largest but the most complex," Newsweek confirmed of the annual exercise.

US Marine Corps image

The joint exercises will focus on "seizing maritime terrain, HIMARS infiltrations, and coastal defense and maritime strike operations among others" — and are taking place around the the Philippine provinces of Palawan and Batanes, geographically near disputed China Sea areas as well as Taiwan.

A US Marine Corps statement described Balikatan as a "cornerstone event between the US and the Philippines, directly supporting the refinement and understanding of our shared Mutual Defense Treaty obligations."

To be expected, Beijing has blasted the war games as a provocation, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian warning against the placement and deployment of US weapons systems "at China's doorstep." He further put the Philippines on notice, saying there will be "serious consequences of pandering to the United States."

He further said Manilla "should understand that drawing in countries outside the South China Sea to flex their muscles and stoke confrontation in the region will only intensify tensions and undermine regional stability." 

Russia's Sputnik has the following details on the scope of the new drills:

  • Some of the drills will also involve other countries, such as Australia and France, in secondary roles.
  • 14 nations will reportedly act as observers, including India, Japan, as well as some ASEAN and European Union countries.
  • In a first, six Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels will participate in the drills in an active role.
  • The drills will simulate seizing islands in the vicinity of Taiwan and South China Sea.
  • For the first time, the exercises will be held at multiple Philippine locations, 12 nautical miles offshore, outside of the country's territorial waters, near the disputed South China Sea – waters that are claimed by both China and the Philippines.
  • The maiden deployment by the US military of the Mid-Range Capability missile system in the Philippines has been denounced as contributing to a regional arms race.

Recently, rival Chinese and Philippine coast guard patrols have directly clashed over maritime territory and fishing rights. Often these involve the firing of water canons well as dangerous ramming situations.

Washington and Manillas are defense treaty partners - meaning that if Philippine forces ever come under direct military attack, the United States is 'obligated' to intervene on their behalf.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 23:20

Supreme Court Denies Bid To Expand No-Excuse Mail-In Ballots In Texas

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Supreme Court Denies Bid To Expand No-Excuse Mail-In Ballots In Texas

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Supreme Court has declined to hear a legal challenge to a Texas law that requires voters under the age of 65 to provide justification to vote by mail, meaning that the Democrat-aligned attempt to sharply expand “no-excuse” mail-in ballots in the Lone Star state has failed, with implications for other states.

Empty envelopes of opened vote-by-mail ballots for the presidential primary are stacked on a table at King County Elections in Renton, Washington, on March 10, 2020. (Jason Redmond/AFP)

According to an April 22 order list, the high court denied petition for a writ of cetriorari in a case that stems from a federal lawsuit filed in 2020 on behalf of the Texas Democratic Party and several voters who requested that Texas lift its age-based limitations on no-excuse mail-in voting.

Texas law only allows individuals to vote by mail without a qualifying excuse, like sickness, if they are 65 years or older. In their original complaint, which made its way through a number of lower courts before ending up before the Supreme Court, the petitioners alleged that the Texas voting law violates the 26th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits denying the right to vote due to age.

The Supreme Court’s refusal to hear the appeal means that the Texas law stays in place, delivering a win to election integrity advocates who argue that no-excuse mail-in voting is prone to fraud and makes elections less secure.

At the same time, the high court’s decision to deny certiorari is a setback for groups who see laws like Texas’s age-based limits on no-excuse mail-in ballots as “voter suppression” or an unfair attempt to impose barriers to voting for certain groups, in this case younger voters.

The high court’s decision not to hear the appeal has broader implications, however, since six other states–Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee–have similar laws on the books that let older voters to request absentee ballot without having to provide any justification.

Public opinion in Texas over the issue of no-excuse mail-in voting is split, according to some polls.

More Details

In their initial petition filed in 2020 on behalf of the Texas Democratic Party and a group of voters amids the COVID-19 pandemic, the plaintiffs requested that Texas lift its age-based restrictions to no-excuse mail-in voting, citing public health risks related to the outbreak.

A district court judge sided with the plaintiffs in May 2020, temporarily blocking the Texas law.

Led by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Texas officials then filed an appeal with the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which paused the district court’s ruling while the appeal played out.

The plaintiffs then asked the U.S. Supreme Court to reimpose the district court’s decision to freeze enforcement of the age-based limits to no-excuse mail-in voting, or to take the case up for review, but the high court rejected both requests.

Ultimately, the 5th Circuit voided the lower court’s May 2020 order in full. This led the plaintiffs to file an amended complaint in the district court, this time asserting other claims, including ones of racial discrimination under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and arguing that the age limitations on mail-in ballots violated the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th and 26th Amendments.

In a July 2022 order, the district court judge dismissed all of the plaintiffs’ claims, leading to another appeal before the 5th Circuit, which ultimately affirmed the district court’s decision to dismiss.

The plaintiffs filed a petition for a writ of certiorari in the U.S. Supreme Court in December 2023, asking the high court to declare Texas’s age-based voting law unconstitutional.

The court declined to review the plaintiffs’ appeal, leaving Texas’s age restrictions in place and denying a bid to expand no-excuse mail-in voting in the Lone Star state.

The Epoch Times has reached out to counsel for both petitioners and respondents with a request for comment on the high court’s decision.

Election Integrity or Voter Suppression?

The Supreme Court ruling comes amid a broader fight between those who see election integrity efforts as “voter suppression” and those who believe that the security of U.S. elections is too lax and should be tightened.

According to a running tally by the left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice, expansive voting laws far outpaced restrictive ones in 2023.

At least 53 expansive voting laws were introduced last year in at least 23 states, compared to 17 restrictive laws being passed in 14 states, suggesting that the election integrity movement is falling behind.

Amid concerns over voter fraud, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich recently suggested that to win the presidential election in November, Republicans need to outvote Democrats by a significant margin.

Everybody who wants an honest election should know that in the long run, we need the French model: Everybody votes on the same day, everybody has a photo ID, everybody’s accounted as a person,” Mr. Gingrich said in a February interview on Fox News.

“But until we get to that, if Republicans want to win this year, under the rules that exist this year, they need to outvote the Democrats by about 5 percent, which is a margin big enough that it can’t be stolen,” he said.

Elsewhere, an election integrity monitor laid out over a dozen “critical” reforms that it believes are necessary in order to secure voter integrity in the 2024 election, including outlawing ranked choice voting and non-citizen voting, consolidating election dates, requiring voter ID, and safeguarding vulnerable mail ballots.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 23:00

Syria's President Assad Confirms Rare Direct Talks With Washington

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Syria's President Assad Confirms Rare Direct Talks With Washington

Via The Cradle

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told the Foreign Minister of the south Caucasus republic Abkhazia during an interview published on 21 April that Damascus holds dialogue with Washington "from time to time." In response to a question from Abkhazian Foreign Minister Inal Ardzinba on whether there has been an opportunity for Syria to "restore dialogue with the collective west," Assad said: "America is currently illegally occupying part of our land, financing terrorism, and supporting Israel, which also occupies our land."

"But we meet with them from time to time, although these meetings do not lead us to anything," the Syrian president said, adding, however, that "everything will change."

Syrian Presidency Telegram/AP

As part of regime change efforts against Damascus in 2011, Washington, along with Turkey, Gulf states, and several other countries, sponsored extremist groups with the aim of overthrowing the Syrian government. 

With the help of Russia, Iran, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Damascus has regained control over large swathes of Syria, which were under the control of ISIS and other US-backed groups. 

Under the pretext of fighting ISIS, the US army occupied Syrian oilfields in the north of the country in 2015 in coordination with its Kurdish proxy, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – one year after the launching of an international military coalition in Iraq and Syria. 

In May 2023, a senior diplomatic official in the Arab League revealed exclusively to The Cradle that Washington and Damascus were holding secret, direct negotiations in the Omani capital of Muscat. 

During the talks, Syrian officials mainly pressed for the complete withdrawal of US occupation troops from the country.

The diplomat added that "secret talks took place in previous years between Damascus and Washington, but most of them were through mediators, such as the former director general of the Lebanese General Security, Abbas Ibrahim. Direct meetings also took place between the two countries, one of which was in the Syrian capital, Damascus." However, the number of direct meetings remained limited.

The secret talks in Muscat also touched on Austin Tice, a US citizen who entered Syria illegally via the Turkish border in 2012. Not long after, Tice disappeared in the territory of armed opposition groups that were fighting the Syrian government.

"There is always hope: even when we know there will be no results we must try," he said when asked about the possibility of mending ties with the West. — Times of Israel

During the Muscat talks, the source stressed that "the American envoy repeatedly confirmed that he has information that Austin Tice is alive and in a Syrian army detention center. However, the Syrian delegation insisted that it had no information about Tice, with Damascus expressing its readiness to make all possible efforts to reveal his fate."

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 21:00

'The Most Secure Election In American History': John Eastman

Zero Hedge -

'The Most Secure Election In American History': John Eastman

Authored by John Eastman via The Gatestone Institute,

I would like to discuss some of the illegalities that occurred in the 2020 election and the proposed constitutional remedies that we thought we could advance.

I would also like to discuss the lawfare that is sweeping across the country and destroying not just the people that were involved in those efforts, but the very notion of our adversarial system of justice.

This fight and the dangers from it are much bigger than what I am dealing with personally, or what the hundred or so Trump lawyers who have been targeted in this new lawfare effort are dealing with. It seems that there is something similar going on here, albeit to a much less lethal degree, than what we are seeing with the October 7th attack on Israel, as that, too, was an attack on the rule of law.

The international community that will condemn Israel's just response to these unjust attacks demonstrates a bias in the application of the rule of law that is very similar to what we are dealing with here.

These are not isolated instances. They go to the root of the rejection of the rule of law. One of our greatest presidents, Abraham Lincoln, gave a speech, the Lyceum Address, in 1838 talking about the importance of the rule of law.

When there are unjust laws, you have to be careful about refusing to comply with them because what you may lose in the process – the rule of law itself -- is of greater consequence. He was not categorical about that, however, because the example he gave was of our nation's founders and their commitment to the rule of law.

But think about that for a minute. What did our founders do? They committed an act of treason by signing the Declaration of Independence. They recognized at some point you have to take on the established regime when it is not only unjust, but when there is no lawful way to get it back on track. These matters frame our own nation in our own time.

Let us start with the 2020 election. What do we see and how did I get involved in this?

When President Trump, then candidate Trump, walked down that famous escalator at Trump Tower, one of the planks in his campaign platform was that we need to fix this problem of birthright citizenship. People who are just visiting here or are here illegally ought not to be able to provide automatic citizenship to their children. People laughed at him for not understanding the Constitution.

In his next press conference, he waved a law review article, and said there is a very serious argument that our Constitution does not mandate birthright citizenship for people who are only here temporarily or who are here illegally. That happened to be my law review article on birthright citizenship.

Then, during the Mueller investigation, I appeared for an hour on Mark Levin's television show and said the whole Russia collusion story (which Trump rightly called the Russia "hoax") was illegitimate – completely made up. President Trump thought that my analysis was pretty good, and invited me to the White House for a visit.

When the major law firms were backing out of taking on any of the election challenges, President Trump called me and asked if I would be interested. Texas had just filed its original action in the Supreme Court against Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan -- four swing states whose election officers had clearly violated election law in those states and with an impact that put Biden over the top in all four.

Two days later, I filed the motion to intervene in the Supreme Court in that action. The Supreme Court rules require the lawyer on the brief to have their name, address, email address and phone number.

Nobody in the country at that point really knew who Trump's legal team was, but all of a sudden people had a lawyer and an email address. I became the recipient of every claim, every allegation, crazy or not, that existed anywhere in the world about what had happened in the election. It was like drinking from a fire hose.

I received communications from some of the best statisticians in the world who were working with election data and who told me there was something very wrong with the reported election results, according to multiple statistical analyses.

One group decided to do a counter-statistical analysis. They said the statisticians had misapplied Stan Young's path-breaking work. Unbeknownst to them, one of the statisticians I was relying on was Stan Young himself.

Did you ever see the movie Rodney Dangerfield's "Back to School"? He has to write an essay for English class, the essay has to be on Kurt Vonnegut's thinking, so he hires Kurt Vonnegut to write the essay for him.

The professor fails him. Not because it was not his own work – the professor hadn't figured that out -- but because, in the professor's view, the work that Dangerfield turned in was not what Kurt Vonnegut would ever say. That is what I felt like with this supposed critique of the statistical work my experts were conducting.

Those were the kinds of things we were dealing with. I became something of a focal point for all this information. The allegations of illegality were particularly significant. I'll just go through a couple of states and a couple of examples:

In Georgia, the Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, signed a settlement agreement in March of 2020 in a suit that was filed by the Democratic Committee that essentially obliterated the signature verification process in Georgia. It made it virtually impossible to disqualify any ballots no matter how unlike the signature on the ballot was to the signature in the registration file.

The most troubling aspect of it, to me, was that the law required that the signature match the registration signature. Secretary Raffensperger's settlement agreement required three people to unanimously agree that the signature did not match, and it had to be a Democrat, a Republican and somebody else, so you were never going to get the unanimous agreement. That means no signature was ever going to get disqualified – and in Fulton County, election officials did not even bother conducting signature verification

Even more important than the difficulty of disqualifying obviously falsified signatures was that, under the settlement agreement, the signature would be deemed valid if it matched either the registration signature or the signature on the ballot application itself. That means that if someone fraudulently signed and submitted an application for an absentee ballot and then voted that ballot after fraudulently directing it to a different address than the real voter's address, the signature on the ballot would match the signature on the absentee ballot application and, voila, the fraudulent ballot would be deemed legal..

How do we know that went on? Well, we had anecdotal stories. A co-ed at Georgia Tech University, if I recall correctly, testified before Senator Ligon's Committee in the Georgia Senate. She said she went to vote in person with her 18-year-old sister. They were going to make a big deal about going to vote in person because the 18-year-old sister was voting for the first time. They did not want to vote by mail. They wanted to make an event out of it, get a sticker, "I voted," and all that stuff. They get down to the precinct and the 22-year-old is told that she has already voted. They said she had applied for an absentee ballot.

"No, I didn't," she said. "Oh, Deary," they said, "you must have forgotten." Very patronizing. "No, I didn't forget.," she said. "We have been looking forward to this for months. I know I did not apply for an absentee ballot."

They subsequently found out that somebody had applied for an absentee ballot in her name, had it mailed to a third-party address, not an address she knew. She never recognized it, didn't understand it, and then she testified that she later learned that the fraudulent ballot was voted.

We had that kind of anecdotal evidence to prove that this change in the signature rules that Secretary Brad Raffensperger signed on to had actually resulted in fraud. The disqualification rates statewide, because of this change in the law, went down by about 46%.

Why is the change in the rules through a settlement agreement a problem? Article II of our Constitution, the Federal Constitution, quite clearly gives the sole power to direct the manner for choosing presidential electors to the legislature of the State.

When Brad Raffensperger, who is not part of the legislature, unilaterally changed the rule from what the legislature had adopted by statute, that change was unconstitutional, not just illegal.

Another alteration of the rules set out by the legislature occurred in Fulton County. Election officials there ran portable voting machines in heavily Democrat areas of Atlanta, which was contrary to state law.

Pennsylvania. One of my favorite cases comes out of Pennsylvania. The League of Women Voters, which claims to be non-partisan but is clearly anything but, filed what I believe was a collusive lawsuit against the Democrat Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Kathy Boockvar, in August of 2020.

The premise of the suit was that the signature verification requirement that election officials had been applying in Pennsylvania for a century violated the Due Process Clause of the 14th Amendment because voters whose ballots were disqualified were not given notice of the disqualification and an opportunity to cure the problem.

The premise of the lawsuit was that there was a signature verification process but that it violated federal Due Process rights. The remedy the League of Women Voters sought was to have the court mandate a notice and opportunity to cure requirement.

The Secretary of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania decided to resolve the lawsuit by providing something the League had not even requested. She decided, on her own, that Pennsylvania did not really have a signature verification requirement at all, so the request relief – notice and opportunity to cure – would not be necessary.

Unilaterally, she got rid of a statute that election officials in Pennsylvania had been applying for 100 years to require signature verification. She then asked the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to approve what she had done.

She filed what was called a Petition for a King's Bench Warrant to ratify what she had done. If I ever bump into her, I'm going to say, "You know, you have not had a king in Pennsylvania since 1776, maybe you ought to change the name of that."

The partisan elected Pennsylvania Supreme Court obliged. Not only is there no signature verification requirement in Pennsylvania, the Court held, but all those statutes that describe how election officials are supposed to do signature verification are just relics; they really do not have any meaning. So the Democrat majority on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, at the urging of the Democrat Secretary of the Commonwealth, just got rid of the whole signature verification process.

Then the court went on to say: And since there is no signature verification requirement, there is no basis on which anybody would be able to challenge ballots, so we are going to get rid of the challenge parts of the election statutes as well, and since there is no basis to challenge, the statute that requires people to be in the room while things are being counted, that really does not matter. It does not have to be meaningful observation. Being at the front door of the football field-sized Philadelphia Convention Center was sufficient even though it was impossible to actually observe the counting of ballots.

The statute actually requires that observers be "in the room," but it was written at a time when canvassing of ballots would occur in small settings, like the common room of the local library, where being "in the room" meant meaningful observation of the ballot counting process. Obliterating the very purpose of the statute, the court held that being "in the room" at the entrance of the Philadelphia Convention Center was sufficient.

In other words, all of the statutory provisions that were designed to protect against fraud were obliterated in Pennsylvania. We ought not to be surprised if fraud walked through the door left open by the unconstitutional elimination of these statutes.

To this day, there are 120,000 more votes that were cast in Pennsylvania than their records show voters who have cast votes. Think about that: 120,000 more votes than voters who cast votes. The margin in Pennsylvania was 80,000.

Wisconsin. One of the people who has testified for me in my California bar proceedings was Justice Mike Gableman, former Justice of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. He was hired by the Wisconsin legislature to conduct an investigation.

His investigation efforts were thwarted at every turn, with the Secretary of State and others refusing to comply with subpoenas, etc. Nevertheless, he uncovered an amazing amount of illegality and fraud in the election. For example, the county clerks in Milwaukee and Madison had directed people that they could claim "indefinitely confined" status if they were merely afraid of COVID.

That is clearly not permitted under the statute, but voters who followed the county clerks' directive and falsely claimed they were "indefinitely confined" did not have to submit an ID with their absentee ballot as the law required -- again, opening the door for fraud.

Although the Wisconsin courts held that the advice was illegal and ordered it to be withdrawn, the number of people claiming they were indefinitely confined went from about 50,000 in 2016 to more than a quarter of million in 2020. The illegal advice provided by those two county clerks in heavily Democrat counties clearly had impact.

Election officials in heavily Democrat counties also set up drop boxes. They even set up what they called "human drop boxes" in Madison, which is the home of the University of Wisconsin. For two or three consecutive Saturdays before the election, they basically ran a ballot harvesting scheme at taxpayer expense with volunteers – whom I suspect were actually supporters of the Biden campaign -- working as "deputized" county clerks to go collect all these ballots, in violation of state law.

How do I know it is a violation of the state law? The Wisconsin Supreme Court after the fact agreed with us that it was a violation of state law.

One last piece. Wisconsin law is very clear. If you're going to vote absentee, you have to have a witness sign a separate under-oath certification that the person who is voting that ballot is who they say they are.

The witness has to fill out their name and address and sign it, under penalty of perjury. A lot of these came in with the witness signatures, but the address not filled in. The county clerks were directed by the Secretary of State to fill the information in on their own. In other words, they were doctoring the evidence.

They were doing Google searches to get the name, to fill in an address to validate ballots that were clearly illegal under Wisconsin law. All told, those couple of things combined, more than 200,000 ballots were affected in a state where the margin victory was just over 20,000.

Then in Michigan, we had similar things going on. We probably all saw the video of election officials boarding up the canvassing center at TCF Center in Detroit so that people could not observe what was going on. There were hundreds of sworn affidavits about illegality in the conduct of that process in Detroit.

Then there was one affidavit on the other side submitted by an election official who was responsible for legally managing the election. He said, basically, that everything was fine, it was all perfect.

The judge, without holding a hearing on a motion to dismiss, at which the allegations of the complaint are supposed to be taken as true, rejected all the sworn affidavits from all the witnesses who actually observed the illegality, and instead credited the government affidavit – without the government witness evening being subject to questioning on cross-examination.

This is a manifestation of what I have described as the increasingly Orwellian tendency of our government. "We're the government and when we've spoken, you're just supposed to bend the knee and listen."

That was just some of the evidence we had. In those four states, and in Arizona and Nevada as well, there is no question that the illegality that occurred affected way more ballots than the certified margin of Joe Biden's victory in all of those states.

It only took three of those six states -- any combination of three -- for Trump to have won the election.

When I was coming out of the Georgia jailhouse after surrendering myself for the indictment down in Georgia, one of the reporters threw a question at me. He said, "Do you still believe the election was stolen?"

I said, "Absolutely. I have no doubt in my mind," because of things like this and because of the Gableman report, because of Dinesh D'Souza's book on 2000 Mules -- that stuff is true.

People say, "Well, it's not true. It's been debunked." No, it has not been debunked. In fact, there have been criminal convictions down in Pima County, Arizona, from the 2018 election, where people finally got caught doing the same thing that Dinesh D'Souza said they were doing.

Dinesh's documentary was based on the investigative work conducted by Catherine Engelbrecht of True the Vote. Her team obtained, at great expense, commercially-available cell phone location data and identified hundreds of people who visited multiple ballot drop boxes, oftentimes in the wee hours of the morning, 10 or more different drop boxes. Then they got the video surveillance from those drop boxes (those that were actually working, that is), confirming that the people were dropping in 8, 10, 12 ballots at a time.

In Georgia, you are allowed to drop off ballots for immediate family members, but I think it is fairly clear that these folks – "mules" is what the documentary called them – were not family members. They were taking selfies of themselves in front of the ballot boxes because, as the whistleblower noted to Engelbrecht, they were getting paid for each ballot they delivered. In other words, this certainly looks like an illegal ballot harvesting scheme.

What has happened since then? Well, there is a group in DC, largely hard-liner partisan Democrats, Hillary and Bill Clinton crowd, but joined by a couple of hard-line never-Trump Republicans, or one, so they can claim they are bipartisan. The group is called The 65 Project, and it is named after the 65 cases brought by Trump's team that supposedly all ruled against Trump.

Well, first of all, that mantra, how many have heard it?: "All the cases, all the courts ruled against Trump." First of all, that is not true. Most of the cases were rejected on very technical jurisdictional grounds, like a case brought by a voter, rather than the candidate himself.

Individual voters do not have standing because they lack a particularized injury. Those were dismissed. There is no basis for claiming that there was anything wrong with the claims on the merits. It is just that the cases were not brought by the right people.

There was one case where one of these illegal guidances from the Secretary of State was challenged before the election. The judge ruled that it was just a guidance, and that until we get to election day to find out if the law was actually violated, the case was not ripe -- and it got dismissed.

Then the day after the election, when election officials actually violated the law, the case gets filed again, and the court says, "You can't wait until your guy loses and then bring the election challenge. It's barred by a doctrine called laches. This is the kind of stuff that the Trump legal team was dealing with in those 65 cases.

Of the cases that actually reached the merits --there were fewer than a dozen of them, if I recall correctly -- Trump won three-fourths of them. You have never heard that in the "New York Times." And the Courts simply refused to hear some clearly meritorious cases, such as one filed in the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The majority in that case simply noted that it did not see any need to hear the case, over a vigorous dissent that basically said, "Are you nuts? This was illegal, and we have a duty to hear the challenge."

Two years later, that same Court took up the issues that had been presented to it in December 2020, and it held that what happened was illegal. But by then it was too late to do anything about it.

The 65 Project was formed -- I think I've seen reported that they received a grant from a couple of George Soros-related organizations of $100 million -- to bring disbarment actions against all of the lawyers who were involved in any of those cases.

The head of the organization gave an interview to Axios, kind of a left-leaning Internet news outlet, and he said in his interview to Axios that the group's goal with respect to the Trump election lawyers is to "not only bring the grievances in the bar complaints, but shame them and make them toxic in their communities and in their firms" "in order to deter right-wing legal talent from signing on to any future GOP efforts" to challenge elections.

Think about that. Our system works, in part, because we have an adversarial system of justice that supports it. If groups like the 65 Project succeed in scaring off one side of these intense policy disputes or legal disputes, then we will not have an adversarial system of justice.

We will not have elections that we can have any faith in, because if you do not have that kind of judicial check on illegality in the election, then bad actors will just do the illegality whenever they want, and we won't be able to do anything about it.

They are not the group that brought the bar charges against me in California, but they did file a complaint against me in the Supreme Court of the United States. A parallel group called the States United Democracy Center is the one that filed the bar complaint against me in California. Nearly every single paragraph of the complaint had false statements in it.

The bar lawyers publicly announced back in March of 2022 that they were taking on the investigation. Under California law, investigations before charges are filed publicly are supposed to be confidential. But there is an exception if the bar deems that the lawyer being investigated is a threat to the public.

So the head of the California Bar had a press conference announcing that I was a threat to the public, and therefore they could disclose that they were conducting an investigation. Now, what is the threat to the public that I pose? What is the old line? Telling truth in an era of universal deceit is a revolutionary act? I guess that is the threat to the public they're asserting.

That is the threat to the public. Telling the truth about what went on in the 2020 election. They gave me the most extraordinary demand. They basically said we want to know every bit of information you had at your disposal for every statement you made on the radio, for every article you published, for every line in every brief you filed. It took us four months.

I said, "We're going to respond to this very comprehensively." They say I have no evidence of election illegality and fraud. We gave them roughly 100,000 pages of evidence. 100,000 pages we disclosed to them. They went ahead and filed the bar charges anyway against us in January of 2023.

My wife and I, since 2021, have been on quite a roller coaster.

We came to the realization that my whole career, my education in Claremont, my PhD, my teaching constitutional law for 20 years, my being a dean, my being a law clerk for Justice Clarence Thomas, probably equipped me better than almost anybody else in the country to be able to confront, stand up against this lawfare that we're dealing with.

This is our mission now. This is what we do. This is what I do around the clock, is deal with this.

I was teaching our summer seminar at the Claremont Institute. We do a series of summer seminars, one for recent college grads called the Publius Fellowship Program.

You may recognize some of the names of people that have gone through Publius. I was a Publius Fellow in 1984. Laura Ingraham, Mark Levin, Tom Cotton, Kate Mizelle (the judge who blocked the vaccine mandates down in Florida). We've had some pretty good folks.

We also conduct a program for recent law school grads called the John Marshall Fellowship. We were conducting a seminar on the Constitution's religion clauses when the news of the Georgia indictment naming me as an indicted co-conspirator came down. We kept going on with the seminar. At the end of the program, the fellows always roast each other and make fun of each other, missteps they'd made during the week and things like that.

Well, this year, they roasted me a bit. One of the students noted that as FBI agents were rappelling down from the rooftop, Eastman kept talking about the Constitution's religion clauses.

He recounted that, prior to the program, the students didn't know what to expect when they accepted the fellowship offer to study with me (among others), given all that was going on. Then he said that what they witnessed on that night, when the indictment came down, was a demonstration of courage they had not seen before, and that it was contagious. He then recited a line from our national anthem – the one asking whether the flag was still flying. And he noted, with great insight, that if you listen carefully to the words, the question is not so much whether the flag still flies, but what kind of land it flies over? Is it still the land of the free and the home of the brave, or the land of the coward and the home of the slave?

I find more and more, as more Americans are waking up to what is going on, that courage is indeed contagious. People are looking for ways to help fight back. When they see somebody standing up with that kind of courage, it gives them courage to join.

There are people in every county in the country, with eyes on the local clerk's office and verifying that, "When it says 28 people are living and voting in an efficiency apartment, we know that is not true and we're going to get that cleaned up."

I remain optimistic as people are awakening to the threat to our way of life. This is one of the cornerstones of our Declaration of Independence. We are all created equal. There are certain corollaries that flow from that.

This means that nobody has the right to govern others without their consent. The consent of the governed is one of the cornerstones of our system of government. Our forefathers exercised it in 1776 by choosing to declare independence, and 10 years later by choosing to ratify a constitution, and we exercise that consent of the governed principle in an ongoing way by how we conduct our elections.

Ultimately, we are the sovereign authority that tells the government which direction we want it to go, not the other way around.

Regularly, we are instead being given the following message: "We're the government. We have spoken. How dare you stand up and offer a different view." That has turned us from being sovereign citizens in charge of the government to subjects being owned by or run by the government.

That is not the kind of country I intend to live in. It is not the kind of country I want my kids and now my grandchildren to grow up in. This is a fight worth everything you've got. That's why we're going to do as much as we can to win this fight. Thank you for your support and prayers.

* * *

Question: What happened after the 2020 election with Justices Thomas and Alito. They wanted the Supreme Court at least to hear the evidence, but were turned down. Why?

Dr. Eastman: One of the cases that was up there was one of the other illegalities that occurred in Pennsylvania. The Secretary of State unilaterally altered the statutory deadline for the return of ballots.

Pennsylvania, like most states, says, "If you're going to mail in your ballot, it's got to be received by the close of the poll so we're not having this gamesmanship of being able to get ballots in after the fact." She said, "Oh, we're going to give an extra week." The court said, "No, we'll give an extra four days."

That case was brought to the Supreme Court to block that clearly illegal action by the Secretary of the Commonwealth, agreed to by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. They asked for an emergency stay of that decision so the rule that had been in place would still be followed.

Ruth Ginsburg had died, there were eight people, and the court split four to four, which means the stay was denied. You had to have a majority. It was Thomas, it was Alito, it was Gorsuch, and it was Kavanaugh. John Roberts voted with the three liberals. Then when Amy Coney Barrett joined the court, I thought, "OK, we'll get to five."

When a motion to expedite in my case was filed in mid-December, we filed a cert petition from three of the erroneous Pennsylvania Supreme Court cases, we filed a motion to expedite, and that was denied. They didn't even act on it.

Then February 12th of 2021, they denied the cert petition and the motion to expedite. The vote there was six to three on the ground that it had become moot. That meant Barrett and Roberts and Kavanaugh all voted to deny the cert petition. But it had not become moot.

The issue of whether non-legislative actors in the state can alter election law consistent with the Constitution remains an open issue. It should not be an open issue. The Constitution is quite clear, but there was a news account at one point reporting that John Roberts had yelled at Alito and Thomas, who had insisted they needed to take these cases. They were just like Bush versus Gore.

Roberts was reported to have said, "They're not like Bush versus Gore. If we do anything, they will burn down our cities." Which means the impact of what had gone on in the summer of 2020 in Portland and Kenosha and all these other places, had an impact on the Supreme Court declining to take these cases.

By the way, a little aside on that story to show you how distorted the January 6th committee, and particularly Liz Cheney was on the evidence.

At some point during the course of all this, the legislator in Pennsylvania who was conducting hearings on the election illegality in Pennsylvania wanted my advice on what the legislative authority was if they found that there was outcome determinative illegality or fraud in the election.

He sent an email to me at my email address at the University of Colorado, where my wife and I were teaching at the time.

I responded, "If there is clear evidence of illegality, that's unconstitutional, and so you have the legal right, the legal constitutional authority to do something about it. If you think it altered the effect of the election, you should name your own electors."

University of Colorado, contrary to their policy, disclosed that email publicly. Liz Cheney announced the email, said Eastman was pressuring the Pennsylvanian legislature to overturn the election, even though it was quite clear that my statement about legislative authority was specifically conditioned on a finding of illegality and fraud sufficient to have affected the outcome of the election.

The other gross distortion that came out of the J6 Committee involved an email exchange I had about whether to appeal the Wisconsin case to the Supreme Court. The campaign staff, money guys in the campaign said, "We're trying to be good stewards of the funds we have. What are the chances that they're going to take these cases? Is it worth filing these cert petitions?"

I wrote in the email, "The legal issues are rock solid. It therefore doesn't turn on the merits of the case. It turns on whether the justices have the spine to take this on. Then I said, "And I understand that there is a heated fight underway and whether they should take these cases. We ought to give the good guys the ammunition they need to wage that fight."

Liz Cheney or someone on the J6 Committee puts out a portion of this email. They ignore that I say the legal issues are rock solid. They say instead that Eastman, knowing his case had no merit, was pressuring the Supreme Court to take the case and obviously had inside information from Ginni Thomas, because three weeks earlier, Ginni had sent me a note saying, "I heard you on Larry O'Connor's show giving an update on the election litigation. Can you give that same update to my Zoom call group? By the way, what's your home address? I need it for the Christmas card."

That was the email. All of a sudden, Liz Cheney and the J6 Committee puts those two things together as if there was something nefarious about it.

My understanding that there is an intense fight underway at the Court was based exclusively on the news accounts in The New York Times about Roberts yelling at Alito for insisting that the Court needed to take these cases. The dishonesty, the combination of the dishonesty, the whole thing, this narrative is out there and it is the government narrative.

No matter how false the narrative is, we are supposed to just accept it or bend the knees. "It's like, the government says, 'We've increased your funds this year from four to three,'" and we're just all supposed to accept it. This is lawfare, but it is support of totalitarianism, of authoritarianism.

The government has spoken, and we are all supposed to accept it as true, no matter how obviously false it is. I'm sorry, free people should not and never have and never will if they continue to be a free people tolerate that kind of thing.

Q: I have two questions. One, when Raffensperger did that in Georgia, was it expressly to defeat Donald Trump? Do you think he knew what the ramification of that ruling was going to be? The second thing is, in this upcoming trial, is there an opportunity to lay out publicly for a jury?

Is this a jury situation, the talk you just gave us? Because there has to be a moment where people pay attention to this, and so far it has not happened.

Dr. Eastman: So far it has not come, I agree. I mean, it has come, but in ways that are immediately shut down. We are laying out the case now in my California bar trial, which next week enters its eighth week. My defense of my California bar license will have cost us a half million dollars before all is said and done.

Being a full trial team for eight weeks, it's gone on. It is insane, but we are laying out the case to the extent the judge permits. She has already blocked about a dozen of my witnesses, but I'll tell you some of the stories. We have a guy named Joseph Freed, retired CPA, professional auditor, auditing Fortune 500 companies his whole career.

He said something doesn't smell right here, and so he applied his tools of the trade to look at the elections and wrote a book called "Debunked." It's a brilliant book. I told my wife, "This is the book I would have written if I hadn't been on my heels playing defense the last year."

The book was written and published in January of 2023, so the judge ruled it was not relevant because even though it discusses all the evidence I had before me, the analysis he did was after the fact and I could not have relied on it, therefore it was not relevant.

Two days later, the government offers a witness to introduce into evidence government reports that were done in September 2022. My lawyer objected, "It's not relevant on your prior ruling." The lawyer for the bar actually said, "Well, these are government reports. They are different." So the judge let them in.

Part of the problem is, trying to prevent the story from getting out, even in a trial where the rules of evidence are supposed to come to play. I don't think they'll be able to get away with that in the Georgia criminal litigation.

This full story probably will come out more clearly there and it will have a bigger viewership there than my California bar trial has had because Trump is one of the defendants. The California bar trial is exposing a lot of this.

A reporter for the "Arizona Sun," Rachel Alexander, is doing a terrific job covering the case in daily articles in Arizona Sun, but she also she has a Twitter account.

What I've seen this far from the state trial judge down in Georgia is that he is going to hold the line on what the law is and what the law requires. That is a very good thing and we'll be able to see it. Fingers crossed.

About Raffensperger, look, I don't know what his motives are, all I can see is the consequences of them. There are the consequences of that, which should have been obvious on its face. More importantly, there is the continued falsity claims in his public statements, and I'll give you one example.

One of the expert reports on the election challenge that was filed -- which never got a judge appointed, by the way, for nearly a month, and by then it was too late.

One of the allegations based on an expert analysis was that 66,247 people had voted who were underage when they registered to vote.

Now, he goes out and does a press conference and says, "We checked, nobody voted when they were underage," but that was not the allegation made by the expert. The allegation was that they registered to vote when they were 16. You have to be 17 and a half before you can register.

If they had not re-registered, that meant they were not legally registered and not legally allowed to vote. He routinely mischaracterizes the actual allegation in the case, deliberately lying. Whatever his motives were with whether he's anti-Trump or not, he is clearly lying, and we ought not to give him any credence whatsoever.

Q: You had said before that President Trump had won three quarters of the real cases. I'm wondering what that means to win, what are the implications of that and what is correct, if anything. What, then, then is the way forward?

Dr. Eastman: The way forward is a legal system. Now, the Trump cases that were won only involved small components like the statutory right in Pennsylvania to be there to observe the counting. They were blocking even minimum observation. The court ordered, "Yeah, you've got to let them into the room and observe."

That was not one that was the grand enchilada on the outcome determinative issues, but he won the case. We won ultimately on the indefinitely confined ruling up in Wisconsin. They said that, "Just being fearful of COVID does not mean you're indefinitely confined under the statute."

It's not as if the Wisconsin legislature didn't have an opportunity to alter that. If they wanted, they determined, they considered alterations in the law as a result of COVID, made some, but this was not one of them.

What I have seen, and it pains me to say this, is that the level of corruption in our institutions, including our judicial institutions, is so pervasive now that it is troubling. Because many of these cases end up in the DC courts, I cannot imagine a stronger case for change of venue than those January 6th criminal defendants.

Yet their motions for change of venue were uniformly denied because they wanted this in the DC jury pool, which is like 95% hostile to Trump. This is not a jury of peers. This is not a jury that is likely to lead to a just and true result. This is a partisan political act, a loaded dice system in DC.

The same thing I think they were gambling on being true in Georgia, in Fulton County. But I don't think the dice is as loaded there as it is in DC.

It will cost a million, a million and a half to defend against those charges. The poor guy who entered a plea agreement and pleaded guilty last week, one of the 19 defendants in Georgia, he is a bail bondsman for a living.

If he gets a felony, he is not only in jail for a while, but he cannot do his trade, so they offer him a misdemeanor conviction and no jail time. He took it in a heartbeat. Otherwise, he is looking at a million to two million dollars in legal fees tied up in this internationally televised drama for nothing, and he was not in the position to undertake that.

We have raised over a half million on my legal defense fund site. It's probably going to end up being three million total that we need, but he did not have the ability to do a hundredth of that.

In international news: "Oh, one of Trump's co-defendants is turning the tables on Trump. This is bad news for Trump." No, it's not. The guy made the most sensible decision he could.

My lawyer got a call from ABC, they said, "Have they reached out to you to offer a plea agreement?" I told him to say "No, I suspect they're not going to, but I'll tell you what. I'll make a suggestion to them. I will agree to a plea agreement that says they drop all the charges, and I will agree to testify truthfully on their behalf. In exchange, I agree not to file a lawsuit for malicious prosecution against them."

I thought that was a pretty good offer.

Q: You're paying with your money. They're paying with the...

Dr. Eastman: Yeah, they're paying with my money too, taxpayer money.

Q: What about the ability to manipulate electronic voting machines? It was on every single broadcast for weeks.

Dr. Eastman: I quickly became a triage nurse. Once I filed that brief on behalf of Trump and everything started coming in. I had to try and make the best judgment I could about what kind of allegations were credible and what allegations were not credible. What things that would appear credible that we could prove versus the one that seem credible, but we cannot prove them. I'll give you one example.

Early in January, Mike Lindell from MyPillow said he had a list of the Chinese intrusions. He has got 50 pages of spreadsheets purporting to show IP addresses in Beijing connecting with IP addresses in county election offices all over the country, and then altering Trump down 45 votes in this precinct or altering the totals as they are getting transmitted to the secretaries of state that then become part of the reported vote totals.

I had the first 10 lines of that spreadsheet on January 2nd, and I had some of the best security experts in the world that I was working with, and I said, "Can we verify this?" -- because they commonly describe how many Trump votes were lost, but obviously just typed in. I said, "I need to see the data, I need to see the packet that you say is sending instructions to make these alterations."

They wanted me to go to the president with this stuff and I said, "If in fact this is true this is an act of war by the number one other superpower in the world against the United States." Taking that information into the president without confirming it would be an imprudent thing to do.

I wanted to confirm it and my experts, who had access to IP address registries, said none of the IP addresses were valid. This is made-up stuff. So, I was not able to confirm it. Now, maybe this occurred, but the data I was looking at was not the silver bullet of evidence that we needed to be able to take it.

Other stuff, do you know...how many saw the vote spike charts? Some entrepreneur started making T-shirts out of them. Those big vote spikes, you saw that chart over the Internet.

Well, think about that for a moment. Atlanta, which is about 90% Democrat, if they are not reporting partial returns all night long the way the rest of the state is, and then they report all of their returns all at once, you are going to see a vote spike for the Democrat.

If they are reporting partial returns all night long, the way the rest of the state is, and then you see that kind of vote spike, that is pretty good evidence of fraud. I asked, "The data we are looking at that gives us that vote spike chart, that famous Internet graph that everybody saw is based on state-wide aggregate time-series data. I need to know whether Atlanta is reporting what we would expect or whether it's fraud." How do I get that information? I need the county level time series. Let's see what was going on in Fulton County alone."

I'm told that Georgia officials locked access to the county level time-series data that would have helped me determine whether it was evidence of fraud or evidence of something that we should have expected. To this day, I do not know, but those are the things I was trying to do to get to the bottom of this information.

About electronic voting machines? There have been three audits. Antrim County, Michigan, and one of the leading critics of voting machines and their software is a guy named J. Alex Halderman, a professor of computer science and engineering at the University of Michigan.

He testified as the expert in litigation down in Georgia in 2018 saying these machines are not secure. They sealed his testimony and it was only released in June. It just says, "These things are susceptible to fraud by all sorts of bad actors."

He was the government witness in Antrim County, and he demonstrated that, in his opinion, what really happened in Antrim County was that some of the local clerks had done an update. One of the cities in the county had omitted one of the school board races, and so they had to redo the ballot.

Unbeknownst to the county clerks, every line in the machine code was consecutively ordered throughout the whole county. If you add one line in Bailey Township, it doesn't affect the cities in the county that began with A, but it affected everything else.

All the votes for Jorgensen were cast for Trump, all the votes for Trump were cast for Biden. All the votes for Biden were cast for the line marked "President" and didn't count. When they unraveled that error and counted the actual ballots, it looked like this was an update in the software error and it was explainable.

Halderman goes out of his way, however, not to distance himself from his prior concerns about the vulnerability of election.

One of the things we discover in that Antrim audits is that in fact, the vote logs that are supposed to be there had been deleted for 2020, not 2016, not 2012, they're still there, but 2020 had been deleted.

We also found that the password for access to the machine, that give you, the administrator, rights that would allow you to delete logs, was the same password that everybody had access to anywhere -- from county clerk to anybody -- they had the same password. 123456 or something simple like that was the password. It had been that way since 2008.

The audit uncovered huge vulnerabilities, but because the logs had been deleted, no proof. A second audit was done in Mesa County, Colorado. A woman by the name of Tina Peters was the county clerk in Mesa County, Colorado.

The Secretary of State in Colorado, a radical advocate named Jena Griswold, had ordered an update to all the machines in the county shortly after the election. The update destroys all the election evidence, and that is a violation of federal law.

All election information is supposed to be kept for 22 months, and the people that are on the hook for the violation of that federal law --and it is a felony -- are the county clerks. Tina Peters said, "I'm not going to allow them to put me in way of a felony indictment of letting this information be destroyed."

She made a mirror-image copy of all the data so that when they did the upgrade, she could say, "I haven't violated federal law. I've got it." She had the mirror image, and she hired forensic analysts to look at.

They are now charging her with nine felonies for illegally accessing the information, but what they discovered in that audit, they actually identified computer code that was changing votes. Now, Jeff O'Donnell was the guy that did it. He published three reports, the three Mesa County reports. I called Jeff O'Donnell as one of the witnesses of my California bar trial. The judge has barred him from testimony. We had not identified him up-front because this was going to be rebuttal to their claims that everything was fine. The third audit has occurred down in Georgia. There's one case still pending from all of these things from three years ago. The case is called Favorito vs. Raffensperger.

Garland Favorito runs an organization called Voter GA, which has been doing election integrity oversight stuff in Georgia for 20 years. He is neither Democrat nor Republican. He is a Constitution Party guy, sorry.

There was a judge down there. Apparently this judge did not get the memo that we are not supposed to look at any of this stuff, and he authorized Garland and his team of forensic experts to access one of the machines in Fulton County, and he gave them forensic audit access.

They had it for about a week before somebody came down on the judge and said, "Oh, we're not supposed to do that," and the judge revoked the order. In that week, they discovered something very stunning. Think about how this works:

At first in our history, it used to be that you would go to both of your local precincts, and maybe the local library, and absentee ballots would get mailed in and delivered to that precinct, so that the absentee people who had voted from the same neighborhood were counted with the in-person votes.

This year in all the big cities, they had big central balloting and counting facilities: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, the Philadelphia Convention Center, or the TCS Center in Detroit.

This meant that absentee ballots are in from all 490 precincts in Atlanta, in Fulton County. They are randomly put through, they do not come all "in batches," such as, these are all the ballots from precinct number one, or whatever. They are random.

They get put in, they get opened, and they get stacked into piles of a hundred, and then they get scanned. Now think about that. That means you have 490 different ballots being scanned. Every ballot, every precinct, has different races on it, different school board races, different things.

The ballot has a code to tell the machine which key to look to in order to know how to count those dots on the ballot box. Every 100 with that randomized listing of precincts creates a unique digital signature for that hundred. For mathematicians, that is 100 to the 490th power, because there are 490 precincts.

The odds that you have a duplicate batch of a hundred are zero. 0.0000001. Infinitely small chance that they would have anything. In their one week on one machine, they discovered 5,000 ballots with identical digital signatures in batches of a hundred.

The margin in Georgia was 11,779. They did this on just one machine, looking at it only a partial bit of time for one week. These are the three audits we had. We know the machines either have been hacked or are open to bad actors with access to the machines, either put in a thumb chip. Halderman's the guy.

They had a convention in Las Vegas, hired a bunch of geeks, computer geeks from around the country, to come to this convention and see who could hack into the machines and alter the vote codes quickest. It took people about 15 minutes.

Halderman is also the guy. What is one of the big rivalries in the country, Michigan versus Ohio State? He had his Michigan students vote on who had the better football program, Michigan or Ohio State.

Now, anybody that knows anything about football knows there's no way anybody in Michigan is ever going to vote for Ohio State, but he programmed it so that Ohio State won by 80 percent. It took him five minutes.

Michigan students voting on one of his Dominion machines, when this was the issue, the ballot initiative, voted for Ohio State. The notion that these things cannot be hacked is laughable. They have to be able to be opened if they need to be repaired. [I heard that from an MIT graduate at the time.]

The question is, how to prove that they were hacked in this particular instance when they are destroying the evidence, and that is where we are.

Q: Do the Republicans do this too?

Dr. Eastman: I don't know. There was a story that was floated that the former Secretary of State in Arizona and former governor, who was running a distant fifth in the primary election for governor before he signed the $100 million contract with an electronic voting machine company, and all of a sudden he won the election, or the same thing that happened with Kemp in Georgia.

Those speculations have been floating out there that their bribery was not cash into their bank account but votes in their upcoming primary elections. I do not know whether that is true or not. Those allegations have been floated. It would not surprise me .

Stacey Abrams certainly thought Kemp stole the election. There was a whole litigation on it. That is why Halderman was doing his expert reports in that case.

More troubling, though, are the people that knew that there was something amiss and refused to do anything about it because they did not like Trump, or they do not like the Trump populist uprising movement that Trump is leading.

Remember, Trump did not create this movement. We need to date it back to the Tea Party movement in 2010 after Obamacare comes down. The Republicans in charge in Congress thought that was a bigger threat to them than the Democrats were.

They wanted to do everything they could to shut down that movement. The movement just took on a new guise when a new leader stepped up to get ahead of it, and it is the MAGA movement now.

Either they do not like those people in flyover country -- that may be part of it from our release in DC -- or they do not like anybody questioning the utter corruption that is making them all multimillionaires with having government jobs or some combination of both.

What was most discouraging was finding people saying, "Oh, I wish we could do something about this election illegality," and then, on the back side, doing everything they could to stop it.

Former Attorney General William Barr is the primary example of this. Barr goes out on December 1st, and said, "We've been investigating, and we found no evidence of significant enough fraud to affect the outcome of the election."

One of the charges against me in California is, "You continue to insist there was illegality even after Bill Barr made that statement. Why didn't you bow to him?" Well, we subsequently learned that despite Barr's public statement that US attorneys could investigate election illegality, anytime somebody did, he called him on the phone and order them not to.

In Pennsylvania, the US attorney in Pennsylvania, McSwain, was looking at the truck driver incident. Barr told him, "You hand all that over to the attorney general of the state" -- a Democrat who was part of the problem.

One of the FBI investigators who was actually getting to the bottom of this got a call that said, "Stand down."

The investigation of the ballots coming out from under the table and being counted after everybody was sent home down in Atlanta, the FBI did investigate that. Guess what the purpose of their investigation was. To determine that the statement that there were suitcases of ballots rather than bins of ballots was false. They did not do any other investigation about whether in fact people had been sent home.

You have people out there saying, "Oh, we're investigating. Everything's fine," while behind the scenes ordering people not to do the investigation that would actually get to the bottom of it.

I call it the uniparty. You can call it the deep state. You can call it the administrative state. You can call it the corrupt state, but it sees the MAGA movement as the biggest threat to its syndicators. It is going to do everything it can to destroy the people who are going to try and publicize what is going on.

That is what we are dealing with, and we are $2 million in. One of the lawsuits that was filed against me by this guy down in North Carolina, I don't know why he picked me as the lead defendant, but other defendants are all billionaire oligarchs who are using their own wealth. That is the kind of nonsense I'm dealing with.

This article is based on a briefing from John Eastman to Gatestone Institute.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/22/2024 - 20:20

Tuesday: New Home Sales

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Essentially Flat Just Under 5 Month Highs
Mortgage rates began the new week at almost exactly the same levels seen at the end of last week. There were no major events or economic reports to cause volatility in the underlying bond market, but bonds were able to improve modestly by the end of the day.
...
By staying near Friday's levels, the average lender is just shy of the highest rates in 5 months. A top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenario is still in the mid 7% range. [30 year fixed 7.43%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 662 thousand in February.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

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