Did META Just Expose The First Crack In The AI CapEx Boom?

If you're wondering why the Nasdaq is suddenly tumbling this morning, wonder no more...

Nasdaq moves lower after Meta announces it has capitulated in the race to build a leading frontier LLM it is to build a cloud business to sell its excess AI compute, weighing on cloud peers like AMZN, ORCL, MSFT, neoclouds like Coreweave and Nebius (who will now be racing to the bottom for customers) and chip and memory names like NVDA, MU, INTO, as demand for their products is now likely to be much less thanks to the excess META capacity on offer.

As Bloomberg reports:

Meta, which has been rushing to secure expensive data centers and other infrastructure to fuel its own artificial intelligence ambitions, is forming a business to generate revenue from excess computing power sold to outside customers, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named as the details aren’t public.

One potential plan includes selling access to various AI models that are hosted on Meta’s existing AI infrastructure, an approach similar to AWS’s Bedrock offering, the people said.

Meta would run the data centers and chips that power the models, including its own Muse Spark models, and charge developers to access them.

The report also notes that the company is considering selling access to “raw” computing capacity, taking a chunk out of the business of neoclouds like CoreWeave. Ironically, META just signed multi-billion deals with CoreWeave and Nebius, and now it is turning around to compete with the very suppliers it is paying. 

Development of these new business lines is part of Meta Compute, an internal initiative to build and manage the company’s AI infrastructure efforts, according to a person familiar with the plans. Meta Compute is led by Santosh Janardhan, Meta’s head of infrastructure; Daniel Gross, a leader inside the Meta Superintelligence Labs AI unit; and Meta President Dina Powell McCormick.

Despite the complexities, Meta Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg has signaled to investors that he’s open to selling excess computing infrastructure, or even a so-called API service where customers would pay for AI usage — a business that’s usually measured in “tokens,” or the amount of data used and generated for a customer query.

“It’s definitely on the table,” Zuckerberg said during a call with shareholders in May.

“Almost every week there are different companies that come to us from the outside asking us to both stand up an API service or asking if we have compute that they could buy from us at some premium to what we’ve bought it at.”

This move comes after SpaceX started leasing its 'excess compute' (which is struggling now that it has competition in selling 'compute'):

...raising questions about the potential for cutting CapEx which has perhaps overshot token demand...

...did META just shatter the market’s central premise has been that compute is scarce...

As Goldman Sachs 1-Delta desk-head, Rich Privorotsky, has been warning:

“The market’s central premise has been that compute is scarce.

If scarcity persists, prices should remain firm and justify continued capex.

If supply rises and rental prices continue to drift lower, that is a direct challenge to the shortage narrative.

The first place that pain shows up is hardware. 

ORNN H100 index rolling over last couple days worth watching.

The beneficiaries are the companies selling the complete platform and monetizing usage rather than simply selling picks and shovels. My working conclusion remains that hyperscalers are the structural winners through this phase.

The first moment they demonstrate they can deliver equivalent output with lower spend, the market will reward them.

The bigger risk sits further upstream in the hardware and infrastructure stack where expectations remain built around persistent scarcity."

Simply put, confessions of 'excess capacity' will crush the hyperbolic dreams of the CapEx cycle that underpins so much of the market's recent incredible performance.

And the pivot to rewarding CapEx cutters begins...

"Lots of underperformance in hyperscalers. Everyone still appears convinced they must keep spending simply to remain competitive, while token cost compression/advent of neoclouds puts pricing pressure on core business. If token prices continue to compress alongside falling compute costs, the benefits may accrue to users faster than providers.

Ironically, the first hyperscaler to signal that it can slow the pace of spending will likely see its share price rewarded.

If that happens, others will take notice.

That is the reflexivity that ultimately stalls the capex cycle… not a lack of demand, but investors deciding that incremental returns on the next dollar of spend are no longer attractive.

Watch hyperscalers share price as leading indicator."

Don't say you weren't warned.

UBS traders see it a similar way, noting that reports that META may build out a cloud business to monetize excess compute capacity is shifting the narrative...

...being interpreted as a sign that capex expectations are no longer skewed to the upside, allowing focus to shift toward free cash flow stabilization and a potential incremental revenue stream at what are seen as near-trough valuation multiples.

The reference to excess capacity is creating some unease around underlying AI demand and has negative read-throughs for neocloud players, while also raising questions around the durability of compute and memory bottlenecks.

Into earnings, the key question is whether in-line 2Q and 3Q guidance alongside reiterated full-year capex would be sufficient to sustain the current re-rating.

In semis, price action suggests investors are linking the announcement to a potential moderation in future capex growth and a shortening in the duration of above-trend demand, even if some argue hyperscalers could absorb incremental capacity.

Neoclouds are seen as clear losers on the development.

For hyperscalers, the read-through is more mixed, with a new potential competitor emerging but also some expectation of cost relief if supply constraints ease. Early conversations suggest concerns around overbuild remain more company-specific rather than indicative of a broader industry shift, particularly given relative positioning in AI investment cycles.

META shares are notably higher on the news...

Chipmakers are hurting...

The writing had been on the wall...

...and Premium Subscribers can read the full notes we have published over the past month here: 

• Memory, Monetization, & Multiples: Goldman 1-Delta Desk Breaks Down The Key AI Debates (& The Most Important Chart To Watch)

• 'How Far Can The Rubber Band Stretch?': Goldman 1-Delta Desk Says 'This Is The Breaking Point'

• Will 'Rampart' Wreck The Hyperscaler 'To The Moon' Narrative? Goldman 1-Delta Desk Deep-Dives

Buckle Up!

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:52

Futures Fall To Start Now Quarter With Warsh Sintra Comments On Deck

US equity futures point to a softer start to the third quarter as investors await a fresh batch of economic data and the first major overseas appearance by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. As of 8:20am ET, S&P futures are down 0.2%, off session lows, while Nasdaq futures are down 0.6: techs lags following NDX’s 3.9% gain over the last 2 days; in premarket trading, chipmakers, which did much of the heavy lifting as investors piled into AI beneficiaries, were weaker with Mag7s mostly lower. Nike dropped 2% following a cautious outlook. Software names including Microsoft gained. Cyclicals are under pressure with HC and Staples leading a Defensives bid. Overnight the US removed Anthropic’s foreign access restrictions. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp, and USD is bid as positive progress is reported in US / Iran talk. In commodities, crude prices are lower as distillates rise; WTI futures are down about 0.8% following the biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic.Metals are under pressure, with Ags bid as the group has been the recent outperformer. US economic data calendar includes June ADP employment change (8:15am), June final S&P Global manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and June ISM manufacturing (10am). 

In premarket trading, Microsoft outperforms Magnificent 7 peers in premarket trading. Business Insider reports that the company is planning to announce job cuts, impacting thousands of roles, citing people it didn’t identify. Shares are up 1.7%. Other Mag 7 stocks are mixed early Wednesday (Alphabet -0.4%, Nvidia -0.6%, Apple -0.09%, Tesla -0.4%, Amazon +0.9%, Meta Platforms +0.3%). Here are some of the biggest US movers today:

• Abbott Lab (ABT) shares are up 0.03% in premarket trading after Baird initiated coverage of the stock with an outperform rating, saying a clearer path to upside for the medical device maker is “beginning to emerge.”
• Alcoa Corp. (AA) is down 5.0% after the mining company agreed to buy South32 Ltd.’s bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets in a deal worth as much as $5.6 billion. Morgan Stanley expects a negative reaction on the transaction multiple and limited visibility on synergies.
• Bloom Energy (BE) shares rise 8.3% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the company expanded its partnership with Brookfield from $5 billion to $25 billion to help grow the fuel cell partnership globally.
• Dow Inc. shares are down 0.7% in premarket trading, after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the chemical company to sector perform from outperform. Mizuho cut its price target to $35 from $43.
• FMC shares rise 7.0% after the company said Tessenderlo Group will make a strategic minority equity investment of about $400 million at $13.30 per share. Shares in Tessenderlo gain 3.4% in Brussels.
• General Mills shares are up 4.89% after the packaged food company’s adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter beat the average analyst estimate.
• Grindr shares gain 6.9% ahead of the bell after Morgan Stanley upgrades the LGBTQ community dating company to overweight from equal-weight, highlighting monetizing opportunities. The upgrade leaves the stock with only buy-equivalent ratings.
• NASA selected Astrobotic, Firefly Aerospace and Intuitive Machines for four moon missions in late 2028 as part of the Moon Base Program. Intuitive and Firefly shares are up 7.2% and 2.7%, respectively.
• Nike shares fall 1.6% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the sneaker company said on its conference call revenue expectations for the next two quarters are now seen down low-to-mid single digits from down low single digits earlier.
• Klarna shares rise 6.9% after a Swedish Patent and Market court ordered Google to pay SEK14.3b ($1.47b) to Klarna’s subsidiary PriceRunner International following antitrust damages proceedings.
• Microsoft outperforms Magnificent 7 peers in premarket trading. Business Insider reports that the company is planning to announce job cuts, impacting thousands of roles, citing people it didn’t identify. Shares are up 1.7%.
• Shares in ServiceNow, Salesforce and Check Point Software rise in premarket trading as Guggenheim upgraded all three to buy from neutral, saying that the fatal AI bear case on software is a “hallucination.” ServiceNow +5.0%, Salesforce +3.3% and Check Point Software +3.1%.

US stocks just posted their best quarter in six years with fresh signs of economic resilience bolstering confidence in corporate earnings. The rally added more than $8 trillion to the S&P 500’s market value over the past three months. The SOX semiconductor index posted its strongest quarter on record.

“As long as earnings continue to be good and broaden out, I think we will get continued gains through the second half — probably lower than what we saw in the first half — but I think it will quite broadly based,” said Goldman’s Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer. Technology remains the main driver of earnings growth even as hyperscalers have “derated” on concerns about longer-term returns, Oppenheimer said. Their heavy spending should continue to underpin growth and “trickle out” into parts of the economy supporting the AI infrastructure buildout, he told Bloomberg TV. 

Meanwhile, concentrated market leadership, passive investing, retail flows, leverage and a new volatility regime are increasingly dictating price action, Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner wrote in a Tuesday note. 

In other assets, the global oil market is set to swing back into oversupply even after strategic reserves are replenished, according to Goldman Sachs. Japan’s currency chief suggested intervention was an effective strategy. 

Today’s main event takes place in Sintra, Portugal and the ECB’s annual symposium, where Warsh joins President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at 9 a.m. New York time. Bloomberg Economics expects Warsh to strike a carefully balanced tone after signaling different messages to hawks and doves at the June FOMC meeting. After his pledge last month to deliver price stability sent the dollar and shorter-dated Treasury yields higher, traders will be looking for further clues on the rate path for the year ahead.

“Given the absence of forward guidance from the Fed now, there is going to be intense focus on any comments” from Warsh, wrote Chris Turner, a foreign-exchange strategist at ING Bank NV. “A focus on price stability can keep the dollar bid.”

Investors are increasingly shifting focus to growing price pressures in an economy that’s firing strongly, with expectations building for a solid payrolls report on Thursday. 

European stocks also slipped in early Wednesday trading, with indexes dragged down by mining companies on the back of weaker commodity prices. The Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% to 640.52 with 229 members up, 361 down, and 10 unchanged. Among individual stocks, Switzerland’s Galderma fell the most in over a year after the US FDA turned down the firm’s Botox rival Relfydess. CMC Markets jumped to a fresh record high after raising its guidance.  Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• CMC Markets shares soar as much as 25% to a fresh record after the UK financial derivatives dealer raised its guidance for 2027 net operating income citing strong momentum
• Renault shares rise as much as 4.5% after the French carmaker hosted a pre-close call with analysts ahead of its first-half results scheduled for the end of the month
• Tecan shares rise as much as 10% after UBS raised its recommendation in the Swiss laboratory technology group to buy from hold, saying top-line growth has bottomed out and expected margin improvements are not yet priced in
• Aker ASA gains as much as 11%, the most since January, after it agreed to sell its shares in Cognite Holding to Schneider Electric, which meanwhile dropped as much as 3%
• ASOS shares gain as much as 12% after announcing it will sell its Atlanta fulfilment center and associated automation assets for net proceeds of ~£48 million
• RS Group rises as much as 5.1%, the most since May 20, as Deutsche Bank upgrades the distributor of electrical and industrial products to buy from hold on a strengthening recovery case
• Galderma shares slump as much as 6.6%, the most in more than a year, after the US Food and Drug Administration turned down the Swiss dermatology firm’s rival Botox treatment Relfydess
• AB Foods shares fall as much as 3.6%, the most in over two months, after the conglomerate delivered an underwhelming third-quarter update and downgraded the outlook for its sugar business in the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years
• Bucher shares fall as much as 3.6%, the most since April 28, after Kepler Cheuvreux cut its price target on the Swiss agricultural machinery company, citing capex sentiment indicators in Europe that are nearing recession territory
• Medacta drops as much as 4.1%, the most in a month, as Stifel cuts its full-year organic revenue growth estimates for the Swiss medical-implant firm to the midpoint of guidance

Earlier, Asian stocks fluctuated on Wednesday after capping their best quarter in 17 years, as investors paused to assess the outlook for the AI rally that has been a major driver of the gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index swung between gains and losses for most of the day. Declines in South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were a major drag, offsetting gains in Japan and Taiwan — which together account for about half of the benchmark. Hong Kong markets were closed for a public holiday. The Kospi declined as the National Pension Service was set to resume rebalancing its domestic stock holdings after a temporary suspension.

The Asian benchmark climbed 21% last quarter while a subgauge of tech shares soared a record 74%. However, the sector’s rally slowed in June as rising concerns over the payoff from hefty AI investments, coupled with elevated valuations and crowded positioning, sparked intermittent pullbacks, particularly in Korean shares. The AI trade within Asia has been “quite narrow,” Hebe Chen, senior market analyst at Vantage Global Prime, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “That overcrowding is often exposed to a higher and sharper fall if the tide changes, because this rally has attracted so much liquidity,” she added.

In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index rises 0.2% to its highest level this week before Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh appears on a policy panel alongside peers from Europe and the UK.

Treasuries are narrowly mixed with yields less than a basis point away from their closing levels on Tuesday, when they climbed 7bp-9bp amid a flurry of month-end selling in futures. WTI crude oil futures are down, underpinning Treasuries, as traders monitor peace talks between the US and Iran. US 10-year yields are down 1bp to around 4.46%, Treasuries are little changed on the day while curve spreads are marginally steeper. European bonds lag Treasuries, following the late weakness in futures into the US month-end index rebalancing, which also saw the day’s steepening move accelerate. Focal points of US session include key manufacturing data and unscripted comments by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. 

In commodities, Brent extended declines, falling 1% to $72.20 a barrel. US negotiators held positive discussions in Qatar and progress is being made on technical talks with Iran, according to a senior administration official, as the countries seek to turn an interim peace deal into a permanent end to the war. That’s been of little support to European government bonds, however. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs rise 2 basis points each. Precious metals decline, with spot silver down over 1%. 

US economic data calendar includes June ADP employment change (8:15am), June final S&P Global manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and June ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Warsh, participating in an ECB panel in Sintra, Portugal at 9am New York time

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• Iran and U.S.-allied Oman are moving forward with plans to collect payment for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite public American objections. NYT
• US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held positive discussions in Qatar and progress is being made on technical talks with Iran, according to a senior administration official, as the countries seek to turn an interim peace deal into a permanent end to the war. BBG
• The US removed foreign access restrictions on Anthropic’s Fable 5 AI model. The company said it will restore global access across its platforms starting today. BBG
• Xi Jinping signaled China’s ambition to play a more high-profile role, a strategy that involves rallying developing nations as a counterweight to what he views as fading US influence. BBG
• The yen pared some losses after Japan’s top FX official said past intervention efforts were successful, adding that Washington remains in close communication with Tokyo over FX policy. South Korea’s won slid toward its weakest level since the global financial crisis. BBG
• Euro-area inflation eased more than anticipated in June. Consumer prices rose 2.8% from a year ago, down from 3.2% a month earlier. BBG
• President Trump has weighed a return to all-out war with Iran, holding multiple conversations in recent days with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine on more strikes, but has decided to stick with diplomatic talks for now, according to U.S. officials familiar with the discussion. WSJ
• Microsoft plans thousands of job cuts, impacting less than 2.5% of workforce. Business Insider
• Republicans’ cash advantage just got a lot more powerful thanks to the Supreme Court — and the Democratic National Committee’s fundraising struggles just got a lot more concerning for their party. Democrats argue that the court’s Tuesday decision, which allows political parties to freely coordinate with candidates, will give the GOP the ability to offset Democratic candidates’ fundraising lead in battlegrounds. Politico
• The value of global M&A rose around 30% year-on-year to $2.6 trillion in the first half, on course to potentially pass 2021’s record haul. Companies struck 38 deals valued at $10 billion or more, the most ever in a six-month period. BBG
• US Challenger Job Cuts (Jun) 45.849K (Prev. 97.006K); cuts remain concentrated in tech, with AI continuing to reshape how companies think about headcount.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were mixed, in which bourses partially sustained the positive momentum from the tech-led gains on Wall St, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their best quarter in six years. The region also digested a slew of data, including the stronger-than-expected BoJ Tankan survey and numerous PMIs. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in the consumer, financial, tech and telecom sectors, while sentiment was also not helped by a surprise contraction in Building Approvals data. Nikkei 225 rallied following the stronger-than-expected Tankan survey, which showed Large Manufacturing Sentiment was at the highest in 8 years, although the index gradually wiped out the majority of its gains amid intervention risks and as the data supported the case for the BoJ to continue normalising policy.
KOSPI pared opening gains and lingered in the red as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics retreated. Shanghai Comp was underpinned on the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, and as participants digested the latest RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, which remained in expansion territory, while Hong Kong markets were closed for a holiday.

Top Asian News

• Japanese top FX diplomat Mimura said they are in touch with US counterparts more than most imagine and that a US official made supportive remarks about FX action, while he also commented that recent intervention had meaning.
• BoJ official noted regarding the recent Tankan survey that most firms replied before the US-Iran peace deal on June 15th, so the impact of the deal is likely not reflected much in the Tankan outcome.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) start Q3 on a softer footing, with Germany's DAX 40 (+0.4%) the only index printing modest gains; perhaps welcoming recent pension reform progress and the possible involvement of the Bundesbank. Final manufacturing PMI figures were broadly positive, with the majority of PMIs being revised higher. Commentary was relatively upbeat, with S&P stating that the sustained growth was accompanied by a welcome cooling of cost pressures. European sectors tilt to the negative side. Industrial Goods & Services (+0.5%), Technology (+0.5%) and Optimised Personal Care (+0.5%) are the top 3 sectors. To the downside lies Media (-1.7%), Consumer Products & Services (-1.5%) and Travel & Leisure (-0.1%).

Top European News

• French Presidential vote to be held on April 18th and May 2nd next year, with the official announcement expected on Wednesday, according to AFP citing sources.
• UK Labour MPs reportedly want Burnham to appoint McFadden as Chancellor, in order to block Miliband, Huffington Post reported citing sources.

FX

• Snapshot: G10s are mostly lower against the USD this morning, with clear underperformance in the Aussie, whilst the Kiwi fares a little better vs peers. USD/JPY continues to hold at elevated levels beyond the 162.50 mark, with further jawboning attempts seen overnight.
• DXY is firmer this morning and trades at the upper end of a 101.21-101.39 range (WTD peak at 101.43). The strength which comes amidst the markets’ continued hawkish shift at the Fed, seen following the last FOMC meeting. Markets also appear to be positioning for a hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh today, and then the NFP report on Thursday. On that note, Treasury Sec Bessent said he expects a strong jobs number, though clarified that he had not seen the report. Key releases today include: US ADP Employment, Challenge Job Cuts and ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• EUR and GBP have both been weighed on by the USD strength. The single currency has had a number of ECB members to digest, who are currently hosting the Sintra conference. Broadly speaking the remarks have been balanced, and with policymakers stressing data dependency heading into the July/September meetings. On the inflation front, today’s HICP release from the EZ saw the headline Y/Y cool from the prior (2.8% vs exp. 3%, prev. 3.2%). The Services figure also edged lower to 3.2% (prev. 3.5%). Some very mild pressure was seen in the EUR, and plays in favour of a hold in July. On the activity side of things, today’s Manufacturing PMI finals were subject to mild upward revisions, and the accompanying commentary was upbeat.
• JPY continues to remain in focus, with another jawboning attempt proving impotent. The latest attempt was by Top FX Diplomat who stated that Japan is in touch with US counterparts more than most imagine and that a US official made supportive remarks about FX action. This spurred some very mild pressure in the pair (05:30 BST / 00:30 EDT), falling from 162.79 to 162.56, before retracing about half of that move. A breach beyond the 163.00 mark could be difficult, given expectations that Japan may use the low-volume / holiday-thinned conditions on Friday (US Independence Day) to deliver effective intervention. Nonetheless, a hawkish Warsh and a strong NFP report on Thursday pose risk to the 163.00 level, which some have touted as the new “line in the sand”.

Fixed Income

• Global fixed income benchmarks are softer across the board, given Tuesday's post-settlement selloff. However, price action across the board has been range-bound, as markets look ahead to Fed Chair Warsh's first public appearance and updates from the US-Iran indirect Doha talks.
• Bunds (-18 ticks) have found support at the 127.00 handle, finding some stability after Tuesday's weakness, which was primarily driven by USTs. EZ inflation printed cooler than expected, with the headline figure at 2.8% Y/Y from 3.2% (exp. 3.0%) and ex-E, F, A & T dipping to 2.4% Y/Y from 2.6% (exp. 2.6%). Bunds did see some fleeting upside following the data, notching a new session high of 127.23 before falling back into the prior established daily range. ECB policymakers should find some comfort from the report, with some GC members starting to sound a bit more cautious on further rate hikes. On the supply front, a 2032 Bund auction was weak, with a poor b/c, though the average yield was less than the prior outing.
• USTs (-8+ ticks) oscillate in a narrow 109-18 to 109-23 band ahead of comments by Fed Chair Warsh at Sintra and the US jobs report on Thursday. Since his first remarks at the FOMC press conference, core PCE printed at 3.4% Y/Y, consumer confidence has surprised to the upside, and May payrolls printed strong (June payrolls due on Thursday). Given the backdrop, it would be hard for Warsh to soften his hawkish tone.
• OATs (-21 ticks) follow their European peers, but will come into greater focus as we near the Presidential elections in 2027. A date for the first round of elections has reportedly been set for April 18th, 2027, with a run-off set for May 2nd. The current President, Macron, cannot run in this election.
• Germany sells EUR 2.673bln vs exp. EUR 3.5bln 2.50% 2032 Bund: b/c 1.15x (prev. 2.4x), avg. yield 2.68% (prev. 2.8%), retention 23.6% (prev. 23.94%).
• UK sells GBP 1.25bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Treasury Gilt: b/c 4.26x (prev. 3.75x), real yield 0.933% (prev. 0.651%).
• Australia sells AUD 800mln 4.25% December 2035 bonds b/c 4.34, avg yield 4.748%

Commodities

• A contained start for the energy complex, but with modest pressure emerging across the European morning. As the benchmarks pullback from the highs in yesterday’s session and the brief, but within existing ranges, uptick seen in the US late-afternoon as tensions flared somewhat. Currently, the waiting game continues amid the Doha gathering, but there is a positive skew to current expectations as the US and Iran are expected to hold in-direct talks and after President Trump’s openness to extending deadlines over taking military action.
• As the morning progressed the downside extended with participants looking to the Doha indirect meeting, and indeed sources since suggest that has commenced, no move on that latest report. Kushner and Witkoff are reportedly not involved in the technical exchange.
• Action that pushed Brent to a USD 71.62/bbl base, printing a fresh WTD low and falling below the USD 71.93/bbl trough. The next leg higher/lower will potentially be determined by the readout and/or sources around the talks, before we look to possible comments from President Trump or others on the state of relations.
• Spot gold saw pressure overnight, moving below the USD 4k/oz handle once again. The yellow metal is currently trading at the bottom-end of a USD 3,960-4,018/oz range, with the trough approaching the WTD low at USD 3,942/oz range. The recent pressure has been attributed to the markets’ continued hawkish shift at the Fed, stronger USD and rising US yields. Price action for the remainder of the day will be dictated by key US data (ADP/ISM Manufacturing) and Fed Chair Warsh.
• Base metals are entirely in the red, following the subdued risk sentiment seen in Asia, which has filtered through into the London session. 3M LME Copper (-1.67%) has traded lower throughout the day, and currently holds at the bottom end of a USD 13,134.08-13,384/t range.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -6.1mln (exp. -4.1mln), Distillates +2.9mln (exp. -0.9mln), Gasoline -2.1mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +0.5mln.
• Petrobras executive said they will cut diesel prices beginning July 1st.

Central Banks

• ECB's Nagel pushed back on a "insurance hike" narrative in an interview with Bloomberg TV. He added that inflation will stay high in 2026 and remain above target in 2027, while stressing data dependency and a meeting-by-meeting approach. On the future rate path, he kept options open for July and September. He finished by stating that the first round effects continue, which increases the chance of second round effects and that he is currently seeing pass-through of first round effects on wages.
• ECB's Wunsch told Econostream that the case for further tightening is receding and any surprise in EZ inflation before the July meeting is more likely to be on the downside. He added he would need stronger second-round effects to justify further tightening and that one hike could suffice if shock fades before significant second-round effects. More than one hike to depend on more persistence and stronger second-round effects.
• ECB's Demarco said the ECB should not rush into a further rate hike after the decline in oil prices, while he added the central bank can wait until next projections to decide if further hikes are needed, and that there are no signs of second-round effects, excessive wage pressures, or unanchored expectations.

Geopolitics

• Indirect US-Iran technical talks are reportedly underway in Doha, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as mediators. The sessions are to involve chief negotiators and specialist teams, sources suggest, however US envoy Witkoff and Kushner will not be attending the talks themselves.
• Iran is reportedly insisting on retaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to sources citing a senior Iranian official. Could see a recommence charging ships to transit from mid-August and are not going to discuss other points until Hormuz is agreed.
• US President Trump was briefed on all-out war options on Iran, but opted to stick with talks, while he told aides he's okay if talks go past the August 18th deadline, according to WSJ.
• US VP Vance said President Trump is ready to drop bombs again, while he added that they have two options, which are either to pursue a long-term agreement with Iran on the condition that it changes its behaviour, or consolidate the gains that they made. Furthermore, he said Trump asked them to use the memorandum of understanding to resupply the global economy with oil, then they will see how things develop, and they want permanent, verifiable commitments from Iran regarding its nuclear disarmament.
• US admin official said the US has not released any of the USD 6bln in Iranian frozen funds, and won’t until Tehran “performs”, according to NY Post's Doornbos.
• US official said ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz at higher levels.
• Iran State Media said that a foreign container ship ran aground in the Strait of Hormuz after using a route which was undesignated by Iran.
• Oman presented a proposal regarding the future administration of the Strait of Hormuz to the US and other allies, while the proposal outlines a system for shipping companies to pay "service fees" for using the waterway, though sources differ on whether Oman is actively pushing for a fee-based structure, according to CNN citing sources.
• Qatar's PM and Foreign Minister met with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, while they discussed the latest developments in the ongoing talks between the US and Iran, according to Qatar's Foreign Ministry.
• Israeli Broadcasting Authority cited a source that stated the start of the pilot phase in Lebanon has been postponed until a monitoring mechanism is reached between the Lebanese and Israeli armies.
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz said the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza.
• UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 76NM south of Yemen; the vessel being approached by multiple small craft but the crew reported safe.
• North Korean leader Kim pledged to deepen ties with China on shared socialist values and dispatched a congratulatory message to Chinese President Xi, on the Chinese Communist Party's founding anniversary, according to KCNA.
• Pakistan's air defence system shot down four rudimentary drones launched by Afghanistan's Taliban regime, while Pakistan's armed forces warned that continued provocation by the Taliban would be met with a befitting response that would cost them heavily.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Jun 26 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1%
• 8:15 am: Jun ADP Employment Change, est. 120k, prior 122k
• 9:45 am: Jun F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 55.7, prior 55.7
• 10:00 am: Jun ISM Manufacturing, est. 53.85, prior 54
• 10:00 am: Jun ISM Prices Paid, est. 77.5, prior 82.1
• 10:00 am: May Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%

Central Banks

• 9:00 am: ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Warsh, BOE’s Bailey, BOC’s Macklem
• 9:00 am: Fed’s Warsh Appears on Panel at ECB Forum

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

There must be a lot of illness going round our floor today — looking at the team diary, an awful lot of people seem to be seeing a doctor. In fact, at 5pm sharp, it looks like everyone’s booked in with Dr Congo… let’s hope we all get a positive result.   

As it’s the start of the new quarter, Henry will shortly release our regular performance review for Q2 and indeed H1. The main headline was the signing of the interim US-Iran deal, which meant Brent crude oil prices (-38.4%) saw their biggest quarterly decline since the start of the pandemic in Q1 2020. So that meant stagflation fears receded, supporting bonds and equities across the board. In fact, the S&P 500 saw its best quarter since the post-pandemic rebound in Q2 2020, with a +15.2% gain in total return terms. That included an exceptional performance for chip stocks, with the Philly semiconductor (+88.0%) posting its best quarter since the index started in the early 1990s. See the full report in your inboxes shortly.   

Risk assets largely finished Q2 on a strong footing yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.79%) gaining for a second consecutive day. The biggest factor was the recovery in tech stocks, with the Mag 7 (+1.30%) up for a third consecutive day, whilst the Philly semiconductor index (+3.92%) posted another large gain. The rally was somewhat narrow with a majority of S&P 500 constituents lower on the day and just 8 of the 25 industry groups gaining. This left the equal-weighted S&P 500 -0.12% lower, while the small cap Russell 2000 underperformed (+0.46%) its large cap peers.

US data was mixed yesterday as strong job opening numbers were matched with weak housing and sentiment data. The JOLTS report for May added to the picture of labour market resilience from other recent releases. Job openings surprised on the upside, with 7.594m openings in May (vs. 7.296m expected). So that meant that the ratio of job openings per unemployed individuals reached 1.039, which takes it to the highest reading since January 2025. Moreover, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs (a good barometer for tightness in the labour market) held steady at 1.9%. And yet the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading missed expectations, coming in at 91.2 (vs. 94.4 expected), with the present labour market sentiment the weakest since 2021. Moreover, the overall present situation indicator fell to 116.4 (vs. 123.0 expected), marking its lowest level since February 2021 when the economy was still coming out of the pandemic. Consumer sentiment/confidence numbers have long decoupled from economic growth so we can't read too much into it, but the data is still striking. On housing, the FHFA House Price index showed a month-on-month decline in house prices (-0.1% vs +0.2% expected), with year-over-year home price appreciation now near its lowest levels since 2012.

However, the market keyed in on the strong job openings number and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack shortly after their release. She said in a CNBC interview that the US may “need higher interest rates to bring inflation back down to target”, and when asked about a July hike, said she was keeping an open mind at every meeting. So that raised speculation about a rate hike in just 4 weeks’ time, and market pricing for a July hike ticked up a bit to 34% by the close, up from 32% the previous day. Stand by for both Warsh and Lagarde speaking at Sintra today.  

Ahead of that, the hawkish newsflow led to a fresh selloff for US Treasuries, with the 2yr Treasury yield (+6.8bps) rising to 4.17%, whilst the 10yr yield (+9.1bps) hit 4.465%. There was a more muted reaction for European government bonds as yields on 10yr bunds (+0.3bps), OATs (+1.3bps) and BTPs (+4.8bps) all moved higher. This followed comparatively dovish European newsflow, with the flash CPI prints surprising on the downside in several member states. So the German print fell more than expected to +2.4% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +2.5% expected), whilst the French print also fell more than expected to +2.0% (vs. +2.3% expected).

So that raised hopes that today’s Euro Area-wide print might surprise on the softer side, and investors also dialled back expectations for ECB rate hikes this year, with just 23bps priced by the December meeting at the close, down from 27bps the previous day. Here in the UK however, 10yr gilt yields (+4.1bps) rose by more than elsewhere, which came as BoE Governor Bailey warned that inflation could still rise later this year. Otherwise in Europe, equities advanced across the board, with the STOXX 600 up +0.88% to a new all-time high. The move was clear across the continent, with gains for the DAX (+1.50%), the CAC 40 (+0.44%) and the FTSE MIB (+1.01%) as well.

Alongside the lower inflation prints, sentiment was also supported by oil prices holding steady, with Brent crude (-0.31%) down slightly on the day. This came as Bloomberg reported that US officials held positive discussions with GCC leaders in Qatar on Tuesday. There was further reporting from the Wall Street Journal overnight that President Trump had been briefed on potential war options but was opting to stay in talks and that he told aides that he was ok with talks continuing past the initial August 18th deadline. The dovish mood from the White House continues as the President seems reticent to restart the kinetic action and risk higher energy prices ahead of the November midterms.  

Asian equity markets have started H2 on a mixed footing this morning. The KOSPI (-0.70%) is leading regional declines, coming off one of its strongest quarterly runs in recent years. By contrast, improved manufacturing activity in Japan and China is supporting gains in Tokyo and mainland markets. The Nikkei (+0.63%) is moving higher, alongside both the CSI (+0.44%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.08%), while Hong Kong markets are closed for a public holiday. S&P 500 (-0.23%) and Nasdaq (-0.24%) futures are both edging lower.

Early data suggested that China’s manufacturing activity moderated slightly in June relative to May, although robust export performance helped keep overall activity in expansionary territory. The RatingDog Manufacturing PMI edged down to 51.7 from 51.8, a three-month low, but still capped the strongest quarterly performance for the sector since Q4 2020.

In South Korea, exports surged by +70.9% year-on-year in June, accelerating from +53.4% in May and comfortably exceeding expectations. The increase was largely driven by strong semiconductor demand amid the global AI investment boom, reinforcing the Bank of Korea’s increasingly hawkish stance ahead of its July 16 decision. Separately, while factory activity expanded for a seventh consecutive month, the pace of growth eased slightly, reflecting softer export demand at the margin.

Elsewhere, the yen weakened to its lowest level against the dollar since 1986 overnight, currently at 162.72 (-0.10%) and fuelling speculation that Tokyo may be nearing direct intervention.

To the day ahead now, data releases include the US June ISM manufacturing index, ADP report, and May construction spending, along with the Euro Area flash CPI print for June. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Warsh, the ECB’s Lagarde, Vujcic, Cipollone and Lane, the BoE’s Bailey, and the BoC’s Macklem.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:35

Trump Briefed On All-Out War Plans, Still Eyes Diplomacy, As Iran Reminds US: 'Muzzle Your Pets In Tel Aviv'

President Trump started this week by claiming that Iran had "requested" direct talks in Qatar, but as of yet the ground reality in Doha is that Iranian officials have refused, leaving US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to just bide their time and deal with Qatari and Pakistani intermediaries.

In this context of Tehran putting direct contacts on hold, Trump has reportedly been briefed on options for a possible return to broader war with Iran, but has for now opted to continue diplomatic negotiations, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal citing admin officials.

Source: White House/Getty Images

The late Monday report described that discussions on "all-out war" planning involved War Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, with the focus of the briefing described as assessing whether the United States should abandon talks with Tehran and resume full-scale military strikes. The Journal characterized, citing the officials, the latter option as—

...a move some of them describe as "finishing the job." While not making a final decision, Trump has told aides he believes another round of full-scale attacks could derail diplomacy and hurt Washington’s chances of ultimately dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.

While Trump is said to be leaning toward diplomacy, the report suggests he had not made a final decision yet, as new large-scale strikes would certainly destroy already fragile negotiations.

The WSJ further specified the president has told advisers he is ready to allow nuclear negotiations with Tehran to extend beyond an August 18 deadline, giving breathing room and flexibility for talks to produce real results.

It should be noted that the Pentagon and US intelligence community routinely present 'options' for the Commander-in-Chief:

Pentagon briefings on a president’s military options in a conflict aren’t unusual, with Trump routinely holding formal and impromptu meetings on Iran. But the latest discussions suggest he is looking for ways to break the deadlock with Tehran and hasn’t yet ruled out a return to fighting. Resuming the conflict, some officials acknowledge, would be a tacit admission that the much-touted Iran deal failed.

Central sticking points remain the initial release of $6 billion in Iranian frozen assets, and the question of tolls or fees for Hormuz Strait passage. The US side has yet to see enough good behavior from Iran to release the funds - but perhaps the administration is more worried about domestic criticism from the hawks. Neither side has found agreement for moving forward.

In the meantime so-called hardliners within Iran are putting pressure on their negotiators to make Washington 'pay' if it won't honor its agreements outlined in the MoU. As geopolitical blog Moon of Alabama has laid out:

The U.S. is obviously not willing to fulfill the conditions set out in its Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. It will need more pressure from Iran to make the U.S. agree to its demands.

The current team of Iranian leaders who had negotiated and signed the MoU are President Masoud Pezeshkian -a good heart surgeon but unexperienced politician-, Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf -a former IRGC leader and professional politician-, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi -a longtime professional diplomat.

All three are now under critique for multiple breaches of the MoU by the U.S. and the perceived lack of Iranian responses to those.

Some 68 members of 88 men strong Assembly of Experts have published (in Farsi, in in English) a strong admonishing advice to the negotiators to stick to the ten points the Supreme Leader of Iran had defined.

The Assembly of Experts is the elected board of senior Islamic jurists which can elect and disposes of the Supreme Leader. It is residing in Qom. Its assembly building had been destroyed in one of the U.S. attacks on Iran.

The Assembly's statement from just days stated in part, "In accordance with the commitment of the respected officials to the leadership and the people, it is expected that any breach of the agreement and violation of the clauses of the memorandum of understanding will be responded to immediately."

The Iranian Foreign Minister's own rhetoric has grown more pointed and heated at this point:

The terms of the Islamabad MoU are crystal clear and public for all to see.

POTUS has committed the U.S. to muzzling its pets in Tel Aviv. If they ignore their master, Iran will school them.

Any threat against our People and Leadership will receive Immediate Powerful Response. pic.twitter.com/VrKa259gYd

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) July 1, 2026

So far, the White House has tended to ignore such strong rhetoric coming from Araghchi - again, likely not willing to damage negotiations all based on some social media tit-for-tat exchanges.

But all of this without doubt demonstrates that Tehran won't so easily bend, and the two sides could be headed toward more direct clashes as absolutist demands and interpretations keep being presented.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:25

ADP Employment Report Shows 12th Straight Month Of Job Gains

With jobless claims still hovering near multi-decade lows and Job Openings soaring, and despite near record low consumer sentiment (particularly about the labor market), ADP was expected to report another strong employment report this morning with the US economy adding 120k jobs.

The actual print was a disappointing +98k, but still represented the 12th straight month of employment gains...

Source: Bloomberg

Once again Small Business led the charge with hiring, but the gains were seen across all firm sizes...

Interestingly, only the Natural Resources & Mining sector saw job losses...

The median pay gain for job-stayers was little changed at 4.4 percent, while year-over-year pay growth for job-changers accelerated to 6.6 percent.

"The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"We know it's taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries. For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation."

Still, this is hardly the collapse in labor market sentiment that surveys are suggesting...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:22

Nike Turnaround Falters As UBS Says There's "No Reason To Buy" Stock

Nike shares fell 3% in premarket trading after the struggling athletic apparel giant warned on its earnings call that revenue declines over the next two quarters will be worse than previously expected, underscoring that there is still no immediate turnaround to halt a multi-year bear market that has driven the stock to decade lows.

"We are not expecting the environment to improve meaningfully over the next six months," Nike's outgoing CFO Matt Friend told investors on Tuesday evening.

Customers are "under pressure around the world, and we can particularly see it having a larger impact on sportswear," Friend added.

Nike now sees sales falling in the low-to-mid single digits, down from an earlier view of a low-single-digit decline. The slowdown is expected over the next six months and is mostly due to slower wholesale shipments in North America, among other factors.

The downbeat commentary offset better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales and profits, which were largely in line with expectations. Management warned that the operating environment became "increasingly challenging" as the quarter progressed, with North America slowing by mid-April.

Our immediate takeaway is that Nike's reset remains ongoing, and any turnaround plan will likely take much longer than initially anticipated, continuing to pressure the stock.

UBS equity analyst Jay Sole, focused on retail, department stores, specialty softlines, apparel, footwear, and consumer discretionary stocks, was blunt with clients: "We don't see a reason to buy the stock."

Sole explained why clients should hold off for now from attempting to bottom-fish the stock, which is currently trading at 2014 levels:

The pivotal Nike question remains "Is all the 'bad news' now priced in?" Despite the pullback in Nike's stock price, we still don't see a good entry point. Nike's stock price is still not cheap at ~27x our FY27 EPS estimate, in our view, and this suggests a solid rebound remains priced in. We continue to see a balanced upside/downside skew. The main upside risk is Nike returns to positive sales growth with expanding gross margin faster than expected. Yet the main downside risk is the rebound takes much longer than the market anticipates. Nike's 4Q report did not cause us to change our thesis much.

Nike's 4Q report underscores upside and downside sales and margin risks:

1. Nike lowered its CY26 sales guidance, but there were bright spots within the outlook. Nike lowered its CY26 sales growth forecast to -L to -MSD% from -LSD %. We believe the main negative factor is Nike's fashion business continues to struggle. The issue is Nike's fashion business remains 50% of its sales mix. Nike may need to take this percentage much lower over time in order to reestablish itself at the world's best sports brand. If so, it could serve as a major, multiyear drag on Nike's top line. This is the main downside sales risk. At the same time, Nike's performance business grew 5% in Q4. Plus, the company sounded like it is in the process of replicating the operational improvements made in categories like running to other sports categories such as basketball, training, outdoor, and tennis. If so, this could lead to upside sales growth surprises over the NTM. This is the main upside risk, in our view.

2. Nike offset its lowered sales expectation with raised margin guidance. Nike boosted its GM% outlook slightly and trimmed its SG&A outlook in order to maintain its CY26 guidance. This was a mild positive surprise to us and Nike is citing its ability to continue to tightly manage costs as one means of restoring its EBIT margin back to 10% over time. However, Nike's average annual SG&A growth rate over the past 4 years (FY27e included) is just 0%. Our concern is Nike is underinvesting in future growth in order to limit near-term downward EPS revisions. Thus, a main downside margin risk is that Nike will have to ramp up SG&A more than expected to return to sustainable top-line growth.

We maintain our FY27, FY28, and FY29 EPS estimates:

We lower our FY27 sales growth forecast given Nike's plan to reduce its inventory buys. Plus, we see greater revenue pressure post Q1 as Nike moves past major sporting events like the world cup and laps elevated promotions on its digital channel. At the same time, we raise our operating margin forecast related to annualizing new efficiencies in Nike's supply chain and technology divisions. Plus we see slightly lower risk Nike's promotions

Separate analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Poonam Goyal

• "Nike's sales recovery is likely to take longer as management tightens buys and sell-in to clear sportswear, Jordan, streetwear and China inventory, even as margin can expand sooner"

Citi analyst (neutral, PT to $45 from $47)

• Nike's sales are looking a little weaker, while margins are a little better.
• “After sales slowed in mid-April within 4Q26, June (1QTD) has improved, helped by excitement around global football"

Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel (buy, PT $60 from $74)

• The bottom line is that "we assume investors will still question whether Nike has 'ripped the band-aid' on earnings revisions"
• Trim price target on "recognizing ongoing noise and a general reduction in retail multiples"

Jefferies analyst Randal Konik (buy, PT to $75 from $90)

• The fourth-quarter report "came in ahead with kernels of progress solidifying in the base business"
• "Sportswear/Jordan Streetwear still the overhang, but not getting worse"

RBC Capital analyst Piral Dadhania (sector perform, PT $50)

• Revenues remain reliant on wholesale, whilst direct-to- consumer trends remain soft, which is "not likely sustainable mid-term"
• "Nike has delivered a mixed 4Q26 quarter (ex US tariff refund) with anticipated lack of underlying revenue momentum offset by more favourable FX translation benefit which flatters absolute gross profit"

According to Bloomberg data, there are 17 "Buy" ratings on the stock, with 23 "Neutral" ratings and 3 "Sell" ratings.

Read The Market Ear note on Nike's epic demise titled "Go Woke Go Broke: Nike Stopped Obsessing Over Athletes And Started Obsessing Over Activism."

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:05

Outgoing UK PM "Proud To Have The Gayest Parliament Of All Time Anywhere In The World"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

As outgoing Kier Starmer prepares to depart amid cratering approval ratings and deep public disillusionment, his 'Pride' reception remarks this week reveal a leader more focused on cultural signalling than addressing Britain's pressing crises.

Starmer took to the stage at a Downing Street Pride reception to defend his government's LGBTQ+ record, even as scepticism grows within parts of that broad community and his wider popularity sits at dismal lows.

Starmer struck a defiant tone, insisting his administration would continue championing these issues. "I want to be clear that all lesbians, all gay, all bi and trans people - that this government will defend your rights," he declared. "We have to stand against the politics of division."

Can we please get back to having a serious country, rather than "the gayest parliament of all time anywhere in the world"? pic.twitter.com/6e7xzLIAky

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) July 1, 2026

He praised what he called global leadership in representation, stating Westminster is "the gayest parliament... anywhere in the world" and telling attendees to "celebrate that."

We really don't care about cocks in frocks, chutney ferrets or rug munchers.

What we do care about is our daughters being groomed or our sons being stabbed and the way our country has been hollowed out by immigration. We care about our elderly, our nation's security.

— ? Humbug ????????? (@_MrsBetSlocombe) July 1, 2026

So we actually need a government focused on delivering for the country as a whole regardless of their sexual preferences but we actually get a government striving to be the gayest. It's just pathetic

— Blue G ? (@Graham93201) July 1, 2026

I'd settle for the most practical, productive and least corrupt parliament, but I guess how gay you are is the metric now. ?

— Lee Strato (@leestrato) July 1, 2026

Was it for this men died in the air, at sea, in burning deserts, freezing mountains, stinking jungles and prison camps?

— The Lion In Winter ?? (@LordOfMundane) July 1, 2026

Starmer highlighted a "full trans-inclusive ban on abusive conversion practices," describing conversion therapy as "a very sinister idea... trying to suggest that identities aren't legitimate."

As we have highlighted, under Starmer's watch, authorities advanced measures on this front that risk criminalising parents who question their child's rush toward gender transition. A draft bill on "conversion practices" carries penalties of unlimited fines and up to five years in prison. Equalities Minister Olivia Bailey framed it as protecting against abuse driven by the "false belief that being LGBTQ+ is shameful."

Critics argue the vague language could ensnare normal family discussions, exploratory talks, or references to evidence questioning youth medical transitions.

This unfolds alongside school guidance permitting social transitions for four-year-olds and exam boards embedding pro-trans messaging in subjects like GCSE Spanish. Campaigners like Maya Forstater and Helen Joyce have warned of ideological capture in education.

Elsewhere during his Pride ramble, Starmer pointed to the HIV Action Plan aiming to end new transmissions by 2030 and changes to equalise hate crime strands, and announced £21 million for global LGBTQ+ rights and a new Special Envoy, framing the fight as "global."

Starmer positioned his government as restoring the UK's reputation after predecessors damaged it: "We are here to restore it." He closed by reaffirming personal commitment: "I will always fight for respect and dignity. It didn't start when I became Prime Minister. It won't end when I don't."

These remarks come as Starmer exits following his June 2026 resignation announcement, with approval ratings plunging to joint historic lows around net -46 or worse - among the poorest for any modern prime minister. Public sentiment has turned sharply against him, reflecting frustration with a tenure marked by perceived failures on everyday concerns.

While Starmer celebrates certain milestones, a closer look at his record reveals policies that have alarmed parents, heightened security risks, strained social cohesion, and eroded basic freedoms.

Persistent Failures on Grooming Gangs

Starmer's government has drawn intense scrutiny for its handling of grooming gang scandals, where systemic issues involving organised abuse in certain communities have long demanded robust action. Public trust eroded further amid perceptions of inadequate accountability and prevention efforts.

Mass migration as a tool of undermining social cohesion

Starmer's administration continued policies seen as weaponising migration while cracking down on those noticing demographic impacts and security failures.

Former Prime Minister Liz Truss recently directly linked surges in random violence to mass migration policies, arguing left-wing approaches deliberately erode the nation state and family. Relentless stabbings and assaults have fueled fury, with responses often focusing on suppressing discussion rather than root causes.

Banning Critics While Welcoming Extremists

The government has barred anyone it disagrees with from entering the country, including Dutch commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek shortly after she criticised Starmer, citing public good grounds despite her focus on cultural preservation.

In contrast, Starmer expressed delight at welcoming Alaa Abd el-Fattah, an activist with a track record of extreme posts including hatred toward white people, calls for violence against police and Zionists, and praise for figures like Osama bin Laden.

Starmer posted: "I'm delighted that Alaa Abd El-Fattah is back in the UK and has been reunited with his loved ones... Alaa's case has been a top priority." This occurred alongside record Channel crossings and hotel accommodations for arrivals.

Criminalising speech and humour

Britain under Starmer saw massively expanded efforts to police expression. Lucy Connolly, previously imprisoned for a post, faced threats of recall for sharing a satirical Maduro-style joke about Trump and Starmer. Probation cited it as poor behaviour after complaints of inciting violence.

Comedy writer Graham Linehan was arrested at Heathrow over three gender-critical tweets, held in a cell, and hospitalised with dangerously high blood pressure from the stress. JK Rowling condemned it as "totalitarianism."

Creating a dystopian mass surveillance apparatus

Proposals emerged to compel platforms to prioritise BBC content against "disinformation," part of broader controls including a thought police unit on migration narratives, crisis information blocking, and social media bans framed as safety measures but risking total oversight.

Starmer's exit leaves a country transformed by these priorities. As everyday Britons face rising costs, safety concerns, and restricted speech, the emphasis on niche cultural victories over national cohesion stands in stark relief.

It currently appears Stamer will simply be replaced by Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, without a leadership contest. Burnham is by all accounts even more left-wing and more focused on ideological virtue signalling causes than Starmer.

Only when a new general election is called will the British people be offered a chance to refocus on restoring seriousness, security, and the freedoms that once defined the country - before ideology supplanted reality.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 07:45

Container Ship Runs Aground In Hormuz Chokepoint

Hormuz vessel traffic continues to flow, but at a sharply reduced pace compared to the previous week, as US-Iran technical talks resume in Doha without senior negotiators meeting face-to-face.

Data research firm Kpler noted, "Hormuz traffic holds steady." 

Hormuz traffic holds steady

The Strait of Hormuz remained open and active on 30 June, with 34 verified crossings recorded and traffic evenly split by direction. The dataset showed a broad mix of commercial, energy-linked and support movements, while route visibility remained… pic.twitter.com/cVZHRte4Hy

— Kpler (@Kpler) July 1, 2026

The latest disruption in the strait, beyond the persistent threat of Iranian naval mines and suicide drones, was caused by a foreign container ship running aground after entering shallow waters outside the Iranian-designated shipping route.

Qatar-funded international news network Al Jazeera cites Iran's state media, which provided more details on the maritime incident early Wednesday:

A foreign container ship has run aground in the Strait of Hormuz after entering shallow waters outside ‌the shipping route designated by Iranian authorities, Iran's state media says.

The news report reiterated the Revolutionary Guard's warning that vessels should transit only through the corridor south of Iran'sLarak island, which Tehran says is the sole approved entry and exit route ‌for ships passing through the strait.

In a separate report, Bloomberg cites the Iranian Navy as saying that it "has repeatedly warned ship captains, owners and officials of global shipping companies that any entry or exit via routes other than the authorized one could lead to irreparable incidents."

Beyond the Strait, and focusing on markets, the beginning of the normalization process to reopen the critical waterway sent commodity prices sliding 9% month on month in June, as conflict fears eased following the US-Iran interim peace deal.

HSBC analyst Jamie Culling told clients:

Global commodity prices fell in June, with our index down by an average of 9% m-o-m, after having reached its highest level since Q3 2022 in May. In June, this left commodity prices up 14% year-to-date, down from 25% year-to-date in May.

The decline largely reflected the impacts of an improving outlook surrounding the US-Iran conflict, including increased traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz (see Commodity Economic Comment: Better, but the Hormuz disruption is not over yet, 25 June 2026). After the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up. The Brent oil benchmark fell to its pre-conflict level, reflecting an improved supply outlook.

Nonetheless, it is still early days. Transit rates through the Strait are still well below pre-war levels. Insurance is still expensive. Risks and uncertainty remain high, and the situation is fragile, highlighted by missile strikes from both sides over the past week which saw transits through the Strait of Hormuz dip (Bloomberg, 26 June).

Even as the broader news cycle has moved on and fatigue sets in, all things Hormuz, whether vessel traffic rates, insurance coverage, shipping costs, and Gulf export flows, will remain in focus this summer. The question is whether Tehran still retains full leverage over the waterway, or whether the normalization process has begun to dilute its ability to weaponize the world's most important maritime chokepoint.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 07:20

The World Is Becoming Increasingly Divided By Fertility

The world is becoming increasingly divided by fertility.

One group of countries now has too few births to naturally replace its population, while another continues to see population growth driven by higher fertility rates. This demographic divide has major implications for aging populations, labor markets, immigration, and future economic growth.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins, shows which countries are above and below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, using projections for 2025 from the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.

While the regional patterns are striking, several countries buck the trend.

Fertility Rates by Country

The table below lists projected fertility rates for 2025 and whether each country falls above or below the 2.1 replacement threshold.

Country Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Above or Below 2.1
(Replacement Rate) Chad 5.94 Above Somalia 5.91 Above DR Congo 5.90 Above Central African Republic 5.81 Above Niger 5.79 Above Mali 5.42 Above Angola 4.95 Above Burundi 4.68 Above Afghanistan 4.66 Above Mozambique 4.62 Above Mauritania 4.56 Above Mayotte 4.50 Above Tanzania 4.47 Above Benin 4.42 Above Yemen 4.41 Above Nigeria 4.30 Above Sudan 4.19 Above Cameroon 4.19 Above Ivory Coast 4.17 Above Togo 4.07 Above Uganda 4.06 Above Congo 4.05 Above Guinea 4.04 Above Equatorial Guinea 4.04 Above Burkina Faso 4.00 Above Zambia 3.97 Above Madagascar 3.84 Above Ethiopia 3.81 Above Gambia 3.80 Above Liberia 3.79 Above Comoros 3.76 Above Samoa 3.75 Above Senegal 3.71 Above South Sudan 3.71 Above Guinea-Bissau 3.68 Above Zimbabwe 3.62 Above Sierra Leone 3.61 Above Eritrea 3.61 Above Rwanda 3.59 Above Gabon 3.54 Above Malawi 3.53 Above Vanuatu 3.53 Above Sao Tome and Principe 3.53 Above Pakistan 3.50 Above Solomon Islands 3.47 Above Uzbekistan 3.45 Above Ghana 3.30 Above French Guiana 3.29 Above Nauru 3.25 Above Palestine 3.19 Above Iraq 3.17 Above Namibia 3.17 Above Tuvalu 3.14 Above Kenya 3.12 Above Kiribati 3.09 Above Tonga 3.07 Above Papua New Guinea 3.03 Above Tajikistan 2.99 Above Kazakhstan 2.95 Above Marshall Islands 2.82 Above Israel 2.75 Above Kyrgyzstan 2.75 Above Egypt 2.71 Above Guam 2.71 Above Micronesia 2.71 Above Eswatini 2.68 Above Algeria 2.67 Above Syria 2.66 Above Botswana 2.66 Above Lesotho 2.64 Above Turkmenistan 2.63 Above Saint Martin (French part) 2.63 Above Haiti 2.59 Above Mongolia 2.58 Above Djibouti 2.58 Above Jordan 2.57 Above Tokelau 2.57 Above Timor-Leste 2.56 Above Cambodia 2.51 Above Bolivia 2.50 Above Oman 2.48 Above Niue 2.46 Above Honduras 2.45 Above Paraguay 2.39 Above Guyana 2.37 Above Laos 2.36 Above Saudi Arabia 2.29 Above Northern Mariana Islands 2.28 Above Guatemala 2.26 Above Libya 2.25 Above Fiji 2.25 Above American Samoa 2.25 Above Lebanon 2.21 Above Suriname 2.21 Above Faroe Islands 2.20 Above South Africa 2.19 Above Dominican Republic 2.19 Above Morocco 2.18 Above Nicaragua 2.18 Above Western Sahara 2.15 Above Réunion 2.13 Above Bangladesh 2.11 Above Indonesia 2.10 Above Panama 2.09 Below Monaco 2.09 Below Myanmar 2.08 Below Seychelles 2.08 Below United States Virgin Islands 2.07 Below Venezuela 2.06 Below Guadeloupe 2.05 Below Belize 2.01 Below Cook Islands 2.00 Below Martinique 1.97 Below New Caledonia 1.95 Below India 1.94 Below Peru 1.94 Below Nepal 1.94 Below Sri Lanka 1.94 Below Greenland 1.91 Below Philippines 1.88 Below Vietnam 1.88 Below Gibraltar 1.88 Below Mexico 1.87 Below Palau 1.86 Below Tunisia 1.80 Below Montenegro 1.80 Below Ecuador 1.79 Below Georgia 1.79 Below Bahrain 1.78 Below Dem. People's Republic of Korea 1.77 Below El Salvador 1.75 Below St. Vincent & Grenadines 1.75 Below Bulgaria 1.74 Below Moldova 1.72 Below Romania 1.71 Below Armenia 1.71 Below Brunei 1.71 Below Qatar 1.70 Below Barbados 1.70 Below Falkland Islands 1.69 Below Iran 1.67 Below Azerbaijan 1.66 Below New Zealand 1.65 Below France 1.64 Below Australia 1.64 Below St. Helena 1.64 Below United States 1.62 Below Turkey 1.62 Below Colombia 1.62 Below Aruba 1.61 Below Brazil 1.60 Below Ireland 1.60 Below Slovenia 1.58 Below Antigua and Barbuda 1.58 Below Slovakia 1.57 Below Maldives 1.55 Below United Kingdom 1.54 Below Liechtenstein 1.54 Below Malaysia 1.53 Below Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) 1.53 Below Isle of Man 1.53 Below Portugal 1.52 Below Denmark 1.52 Below Trinidad and Tobago 1.52 Below Cayman Islands 1.51 Below St. Kitts & Nevis 1.51 Below Argentina 1.50 Below Hungary 1.50 Below Serbia 1.50 Below Kuwait 1.50 Below Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.50 Below Cape Verde 1.50 Below Iceland 1.50 Below French Polynesia 1.48 Below Czechia 1.47 Below Croatia 1.47 Below North Macedonia 1.47 Below Dominica 1.47 Below Russia 1.46 Below Germany 1.46 Below Grenada 1.46 Below Cuba 1.45 Below Bonaire 1.45 Below Montserrat 1.45 Below Netherlands 1.44 Below Sweden 1.44 Below Switzerland 1.44 Below Bhutan 1.44 Below Turks and Caicos Islands 1.44 Below Sint Maarten 1.43 Below Norway 1.42 Below Bermuda 1.41 Below Luxembourg 1.40 Below Wallis & Futuna 1.40 Below Belgium 1.39 Below Uruguay 1.39 Below St. Lucia 1.38 Below Jersey 1.38 Below Cyprus 1.37 Below Estonia 1.37 Below Guernsey 1.37 Below Bahamas 1.36 Below Latvia 1.35 Below Anguilla 1.35 Below Greece 1.34 Below Jamaica 1.34 Below Canada 1.33 Below Austria 1.33 Below Albania 1.33 Below Poland 1.31 Below Costa Rica 1.31 Below Finland 1.30 Below Saint Pierre and Miquelon 1.28 Below Japan 1.23 Below Spain 1.23 Below Belarus 1.22 Below Lithuania 1.22 Below Italy 1.21 Below United Arab Emirates 1.21 Below Mauritius 1.21 Below Thailand 1.19 Below San Marino 1.16 Below Chile 1.13 Below Malta 1.11 Below Andorra 1.10 Below Curacao 1.07 Below British Virgin Islands 1.06 Below China 1.02 Below Ukraine 1.00 Below Singapore 0.96 Below Puerto Rico 0.94 Below Taiwan 0.86 Below St. Barthélemy 0.83 Below South Korea 0.75 Below Hong Kong 0.74 Below Macao 0.69 Below The Great Fertility Divide

The divide is strikingly regional.

Europe is entirely below replacement fertility, joined by most countries across the Americas and East Asia. Meanwhile, most African countries, along with parts of the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, remain above the replacement threshold.

The map also reveals several notable exceptions.

Geographic Pockets That Buck the Trend

While regional patterns are remarkably consistent, several countries stand out as exceptions to their neighbors:

• Central America: Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala all have fertility rates just over replacement. On both the north and south sides, virtually every other country in the Americas is below replacement.
• Africa: Tunisia is the sole country in continental Africa with a rate under 2.1.
• South America: There are two pockets of higher fertility: Peru and Paraguay, and the Guianas (Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana).
• Middle East: UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain are below 2.1, while surrounding nations in virtually every direction are above replacement.
• South/Central Asia: A strip of connected countries, from Pakistan all the way up through Kazakhstan to Mongolia, has higher fertility. Bangladesh also stands out as higher fertility.
• Southeast Asia: Laos and Cambodia stand out as above replacement. Indonesia is the only country with exactly a 2.1 fertility rate, equal to replacement.

Most of these outliers are countries at different stages of the demographic transition than their neighbors.

Their fertility rates remain above or below replacement while surrounding countries have already moved in the other direction, creating pockets that stand apart from the broader regional pattern.

If you enjoyed today’s post, see Japan’s birthrate collapse over the last 60 years in this visualization on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 06:55

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

• The Humbling of the Once Almighty Dollar: Krugman on the greenback’s slipping grip and what dethrones a reserve currency (slowly, then not). Wonky, contrarian, and worth arguing with. (Paul Krugman)

• How the Mag 7 became the Lag 7. Year-to-date percentage change The megacaps that powered the market are now dragging it. A tidy marker of the leadership rotation underway. (Axios) see also The Magnificent 493. While some people are deeply concerned about concentration in the S&P 500 due to the Magnificent 7, I have been more focused on what those firms are going to do to the rest of the index: They will make every other company in the S&P 500, or the Russell 2000, or the Wilshire 5000, that much better. (The Big Picture)

• Gold heads for worst quarter in more than a decade as retail frenzy fades: Expectations of higher interest rates fuelled by Iran war help end bullion’s record rally. The safe-haven trade unwinds as the small-investor rush cools. Pairs with this week’s other gold pieces for the full round-trip. (Financial Times)

• Where Is the Fed Headed?: Reading the monetary tea leaves as the rate-path debate heats up. A clear-eyed guide through a confusing moment for policy. (Stay-At-Home Macro)

• The Leveraged Tail Wags the Dog: Samsung & SK Hynix: Recent market action in South Korea isn’t a direct cautionary tail for what can go wrong with leverage, but it’s a good reminder to pay attention. How leveraged single-stock products can start distorting the shares they track — memory-chip edition. The structural risk hiding in a hot corner of the ETF world. (ETF.com)

• Will AI make companies outsource more, or less? Maybe both. Noah Smith on how AI might redraw the boundaries of the firm — Coase for the model era. A genuinely interesting question most coverage skips. (Noahpinion)

• The Nationwide Backlash Against Cameras Watching Your Car: In places like Troy, N.Y., leaders say AI-enabled cameras boost safety. But some locals call it a ‘dystopian hellscape.’ License-plate readers hit a wall of public resistance. The surveillance-creep story reaches its pushback chapter. In places like Troy, N.Y., leaders say AI-enabled cameras boost safety. But some locals call it a ‘dystopian hellscape.’ (Wall Street Journal)

• The Expensive Accessory Every ‘Hot Girl’ Wants: An Old, Loud SUV: The market for vintage Broncos and Land Rovers is booming, fueled by affluent young women willing to spend north of $100,000 for ‘junk on wheels’. Vintage Broncos as the status symbol of the moment. A fun read on how taste, nostalgia, and price tags collide. The market for vintage Broncos and Land Rovers is booming, fueled by affluent young women willing to spend north of $100,000 for ‘junk on wheels’ (Wall Street Journal)

• Despite His Best Efforts, Trump May Just Have Won the War for Kyiv: A wry argument that the outcome defied the intentions. Counterintuitive, and worth reading even if you land elsewhere. Putin gambled that the West would lose its nerve, and Ukraine would always be held on a short leash by its friends. That leash has snapped (The Telegraph)

• Inside the Onion’s Quest to Turn Infowars Into a Comedic Revenge Story: Satire buys the conspiracy machine and tries to make it funny. An improbable media tale with real schadenfreude. (Washington Post)

Video of the day: We’re Back with Brian Williams featuring Tom Hanks (Netflix)

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business next week with McKeel Hagerty, CEO/Chairman of Hagerty Specialty Insurance. He transformed a family specialty-insurance agency into an enthusiast-driven platform focused on collectible cars, events, valuation data, and auctions. HGTY is now a public company that insures everything from classic cars to boats, trucks, tractors, and military vehicles for over 2.8M collectors.

What you have is what you used to want, but it doesn’t feel like it

Source: Meaningful Money

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The US Should Exit The UN

Authored by Wendy McElroy via The Brownstone Institute,

The future of the United Nations (UN) is in play, largely because of its refusal to censure Iran—a member nation.

In May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reprimanded the UN:

“If you’re telling me that the international community and hundreds of countries cannot rally behind that, then I don’t know what the utility of the UN system is.” 

Severing all ties to the UN could require an act of Congress, but the US is moving in this direction. On February 4, 2025, Executive Order 14199 directed the US to withdraw from 31 UN organisations. A great deal hinges on how highly Rubio still prizes America’s permanent seat on the UN Security Council which comes with a veto.

The UN is often viewed as an ineffectual bureaucracy that occasionally does some good. It is nothing so benevolent. Its origins may have been well-meaning, but the current UN has become what it claims to oppose. The US should leave the UN altogether and immediately, especially since its unjust policies are likely to get worse…and soon.

The UN’s Original Mission

The UN Charter (1945) opens,

WE THE PEOPLES OF THE UNITED NATIONS DETERMINED…to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women…  

The Preamble of its Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) states, 

Whereas recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world,

Article 2 of the Declaration provides, 

Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex…

‘All human beings are equal’ is the basis of Western justice, whether the equality is under nature, God, or law. Instead of pursuing equality, however, the UN is now a woke and corrupt actor that creates inequality and division. The UN’s financial malfeasance, the sexual abuse by field personnel, its demonization of the West…are well documented in the 104-page report From Watchdogs to Ideologues: How Politicized UN Rapporteurs Are Subverting Human Rights by the Geneva-based NGO UN Watch. 

The UN’s demonstrated commitment is to social justice or a wokeness rooted in equity, not equality. Equity seeks the redistribution of wealth and power to those who are considered oppressed from those who are considered oppressors. Equity is the opposite of equality under the law.

Consider its treatment of men who clearly are not viewed as equal to women, as the UN’s mission claims. An obvious example is the prominent presence of the UN Women commission that claims to be “the global champion for gender equality.” The commission identifies its goal as ensuring “every woman and girl lives up to her full potential.” No mention of men or boys. No comparable UN Men agency, although males are included peripherally by recognizing a need to train them to oppose patriarchy. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) explains, 

UNFPA works with men and boys around the world to advance gender equality and end violence. These programmes are encouraging men and boys to abandon harmful stereotypes, embrace respectful, healthy relationships, and support the human rights of all people, everywhere.

Men face many of the same global problems as women, however, including poverty, lack of education, violence, disease and harmful stereotypes. Men also face unique problems, including male-only conscription, paternity fraud, false rape accusations, and longer sentences for the same crimes. Nevertheless, compared to the UN’s emphasis on women, men are virtually ignored. And deliberately so.

The UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) is considered by many to be the international bill of rights for women. Again, no comparable agency exists for men. The FAQ of one CEDAW branch speaks of substantive justice for women. 

Substantive justice judges fairness by results rather than a process; it favors the equitable distribution of rights, not equal rights. CEDAW states, “The concept of substantive equality arose out of the recognition that formal equality may not be sufficient to ensure that women enjoy the same rights as men. An ostensibly gender-neutral policy, while not excluding women per se, may result in a de facto discrimination against women.” 

Instead, in the name of equality, the UN discriminates against men. It denounces the “poison of patriarchy,” decries the manosphere, and discusses the anti-gender movement. The anti-gender movement is defined as groups with an agenda of harming radical feminist and LGBTQIA+ policies. Even questioning these policies or advocating parallel ones for men seems to be anti-gender. 

Earlier, I stated the UN’s policies are likely to get worse and soon. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres steps down on December 31, 2026. The leading contender as his replacement is the aggressively woke Michelle Bachelet, who launched UN Women and served as its Executive Director from 2010 to 2013. After this, she acted as United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (2018 to 2022).

In between stints at the UN, Bachelet served two terms as President of Chile. A prominent member of the Socialist Party of Chile, she mandated 50% female representation in her Cabinet and instituted political quotas to boost women’s presence in government, as well as establishing a Ministry of Women and Gender Equality; again, no comparable Ministry of Men exists.

And, again, the equality pursued was equity because it applied privileges to women. 

While at the UN, some of the global initiatives championed by Bachelet included: 

• Safe Cities Free of Violence Against Women and Girls to address sexual violence in public spaces. The word “sexual” is key. Even the U.N. admits men experience more physical violence in public (81%) compared to women (19%). It is not clear the rate at which men experience sexual violence, however, as men report such abuse at a far lower rate than women.

• Fund for Gender Equality to provide money exclusively to women to empower them at the grassroots level. Males can access other U.N. gender funds but only in order to dismantle gender inequality, not to empower themselves. Men are to act as gender allies and “agents of change.”

• Increasing Women’s Access to Justice in Post-Conflict Societies to support transitional justice and women’s human rights in conflict and post-conflict zones. 

Everyone has the right to discriminate peacefully on his own time and dime. But the UN is primarily funded by mandatory assessed and voluntary contributions from its member nations; that is, by tax dollars extracted from individuals, half of whom are men and many who are dissenting women, like me. 

The good news: there are rumors of the UN’s financial collapse since some member states—most prominently the US—are withholding their contributions. The US alone owes $2.196 billion to the regular budget and $1.8 billion to separate peacekeeping operations, which amounts to about one-quarter of UN funding. Without it, the UN will be sorely diminished in status.

Good. And if the UN does collapse, then better.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 06:30

Kremlin Confirms Rare Talks To Import Gasoline Amid Drone Strike Mayhem

Russia has confirmed its government is currently in negotiations with other countries to purchase gasoline while desperately seeking to stabilize its domestic market after months drone mayhem out of Ukraine.

"Discussions are actively being held," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a press briefing Tuesday, though without specifying which countries. "If agreements can be reached at acceptable price points, then [imports] will move forward," he added.

File image: UBN

The development is surprising given that Russia remains the world's second-largest crude oil exporter and third-largest supplier of refined petroleum products - and yet it is now facing the somewhat humiliating prospect of importing gasoline.

Last week, Reuters dropped a bombshell citing industry insiders who revealed that Moscow has been in backroom talks to import a staggering 50,000 metric tons of AI-92 grade gasoline from neighboring Kazakhstan. India has also been mentioned in reports.

President Putin just over the weekend estimated Russia's total gasoline reserves to be at at 1.7 million metric tons, which would constitute a 4% decline compared to the same period last year. Politico notes further:

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has described imports as one of the government's key tools for stabilizing the market, while Russian lawmakers last week approved tax changes creating subsidies to help finance gasoline purchases from abroad.

Putin had further in a speech and separate interview belatedly acknowledged Sunday that his country is facing a "certain shortage" of fuel following weeks of ramped-up drone warfare coming out of Ukraine, which has chiefly targeted oil refineries and domestic supply facilities, including in the Moscow region.

"As for strikes against critical infrastructure in general, and energy infrastructure in particular, of course, these attacks on our infrastructure facilities create problems," Putin said. "That's obvious."

"Right now we're observing a certain shortage, but it's not critical," he added. He also made wide-ranging public remarks at a major summit of the ruling 'United Russia' party.

Some Western pundits have agreed that the situation is not yet critical, and that a fuel squeeze has been a long-running Ukrainian goal of its intensified drone attacks...

From October 2025 (for perspective): "Ukrainians hope [drone campaign] will persuade Putin to end the war at last...Increasingly severe gasoline shortages have hit multiple regions of Russia...half of the stations in Russian-occupied Crimea stopped selling gasoline..." pic.twitter.com/VILpIKhRK8

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) June 30, 2026

A state of emergency for all citizens was also declared in Crimea last week - with fuel only being provided to military and state entities at this point.

Putin further acknowledged in his recent comments that small, slow-moving drones have proven a problem for Russia's anti-air defense systems, which were conventionally designed to intercept large fast projectiles like missiles or warplanes.

This has been big on Russians' minds, as this month they beheld unprecedented scenes of massive smoke plumes overtaking Moscow's skyline, as a key refinery there burned. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 05:45

Police Flee During Riots In The Hague After Morocco Knocks Netherlands Out Of World Cup

Via Remix News,

After Morocco knocked the Dutch national football team out of the World Cup, rioting broke out this morning in The Hague, with dramatic footage showing Dutch motorcycle police fleeing from Moroccan supporters. Police also deployed water cannons to control the crowd and at least a dozen people were reportedly arrested.

The video of the Dutch police fleeing prompted a sharp reaction from anti-immigration political leader Geert Wilders, who wrote: "Sweep those streets clean and ship the riffraff with their families off to Morocco. This is our country. Get lost!"

Veeg die straten schoon en zet het reltuig met familie uit naar Marokko. Dit is ons land. Wegwezen! #NEDMAR #Schilderswijk https://t.co/IR8pLKIcnO

— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) June 30, 2026

Moroccans gathered in the streets, blocking traffic, and chanting with Moroccan flags. Some supporters danced on car roofs. Many of them are Dutch citizens and second- and even third-generation citizens.

Police regrouped and conducted baton charges, deployed water cannons, and made targeted arrests. A spokesperson said that water cannons were deployed after police were targeted with stones and fireworks.

JUST IN: Dutch police use batons on migrants celebrating Morocco's win over the Dutch national team in the World Cup

Dozens of arrests reported in The Hague after rioting broke out. Water cannons have also been deployed.

Follow: @RMXnews pic.twitter.com/LYVeC5Ua79

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 30, 2026

JUST IN: Bottles fly at police and water cannons are deployed in The Hague after Morocco defeats the Netherlands in the World Cup.

Apparently, these 2nd- and 3rd-generation migrants are not big fans of the Dutch national team. Dozens have been arrested.pic.twitter.com/5i5qskRr6W

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 30, 2026

With the Moroccan football team advancing in the World Cup, police across Europe are likely to be nervous about upcoming football games involving the North African team.

In previous years, Moroccan victories at football sporting events have led to mayhem and mass riots. In fact, it was already in 2022 that Wilders was urging mass deportations in reactions to major riots following victories of the Moroccan national team.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 05:00

Heat Mortality Surges In Europe

Heat-related mortality in Europe has surged over the last couple of decades.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, according to the latest available data published by the Lancet Countdown 2025 Report, between 2012 and 2021, 5.5 people per 100,000 population died of heat-related causes per year on the continent.

This is almost double the annual rate observed between 1992 and 2021.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Similarly rapid surges were observed over the same time period in Asia-Pacific as well as in the Americas.

However, heat deaths stayed on a lower level in these regions and reached only an annual 3.4 and 2.1 in 100,000, respectively, during the last decade.

All three continents in question have an aging population, making heatwaves more deadly as it is older people who predominantly succumb to heat-related causes.

But Europe is also less prepared than other continents for a changing climate as its many temperate regions have not built for the heat and have traditionally neither been equipped for it, may that be in terms of air conditioner ownership or knowledge of ways to stay cool.

Hotter (and younger) regions of the globe have not seen the same developments in heat-related mortality, even though they do experience consistently higher levels of it.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East as well as South and Southeast Asia, brutal heatwaves claim the lives between nine and 14 people per 100,000 every year.

In all three regions, this figure has changed by at most 10 percent since the 1990s.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 04:15

Ukraine's Desperate Propaganda Campaign While Russia Advances Along The Entire Front

Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com

Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western backers have launched a desperate 40-day "campaign of terrors" — which includes a mix of military escalations and a massive information/psyops operation designed to portray Russia as collapsing and Putin as facing an imminent uprising or coup. The goal is to force Russia into a ceasefire. Western audiences are being flooded with social media and regular media articles that paint a dire picture of Russia’s military campaign, while touting Ukraine’s incredible accomplishments. It is all a load of crap, but that is all the West has left in its quiver as Russia’s campaign of attrition continues to pulverize Ukraine.

The Western-led propaganda campaign consists of the following elements:

• Information Warfare — Heavy push of 24/7 propaganda about Putin’s “imminent downfall,” including staged videos of supposed Russian soldiers announcing a mutiny.
• Fake Psyops — Coordinated attempts to stoke panic in Russia (e.g., false claims of fuel/gas shortages, which were partly caused by panic buying triggered by the rumors).
• Symbolic Actions — Staged drone flag-drops (e.g., on the Kinburn Spit near Crimea) meant to symbolize Russian retreat and collapse — quickly debunked and mocked.
• Broader Objective — Combine these narratives with actual strikes on Russian infrastructure to create the impression of regime instability, pressuring Putin politically.

Now for the reality. Yes, Ukraine has hit some Russian refineries and created some spectacular visuals of billowing smoke and fire. However, this is nothing more than military political theater that is intended to distract from Ukraine's setbacks all along the front. As a side note, Russian oil exports have increased during this same period, putting to bed the narrative that Russia’s oil industry in suffering catastrophic losses.

via Reuters

Here is a summary of Russian activity, starting in the Northern section of the front:

Sumy Direction

In the Sumy direction, the “North” assault groups advanced on 19 sectors, and some units of Ukraine’s 104th Territorial Defense Brigade abandoned their positions in Bachevsk. Russian forces continued active operations along the border, conducting strikes on Ukrainian positions and logistics. They reported repelling multiple Ukrainian attempts to cross into Russian territory and inflicting significant losses on enemy manpower and equipment. Russian soldiers are now only a few kilometers from Sumy itself.

Kharkiv Direction

Russian troops advanced in several sectors north and northeast of Kharkiv. The MOD reported the liberation of additional border settlements and improvement of tactical positions. Russian Geran drones conduct a series of high-precision strikes on gas infrastructure in Kharkiv region overnight. A gas distribution station near Panyutino was struck — disabling gas storage tanks, gas pumping plants, and a gas treatment facility. The Skvortsovskaya gas treatment system near Kosogorovka was also hit.​​ Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled, with Russian artillery and aviation playing a key role in degrading enemy capabilities.

Donetsk Direction (Primary Focus)

Donetsk remains the main direction of Russian offensive operations. Russian troops are steadily advancing on the Pokrovsk axis, with Russian forces capturing multiple settlements and pushing toward key logistical nodes. The most notable achievement is in Konstantinovka, where Russian units have taken control of most of the city and disrupted Ukrainian supply lines. With both Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka gone, Russia controls the two southern and eastern approaches that previously buffered the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. The H-32 Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and the T-0504 Bakhmut-Pokrovsk highway — both of which Russian forces had been fighting to seize specifically to link these two axes — now forms a contiguous corridor under Russian control, allowing logistics and force concentration to flow directly toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk without contesting two separate urban battles.The Russians also are advancing around Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, including gains in urban fighting and elevated positions.

Overall, the Russian MOD described consistent liberation of territory, high daily Ukrainian losses, and effective use of glide bombs, drones, and artillery to support ground advances.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro region)

In the Dnipropetrovsk direction, the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade captured Bogodarivka, the third settlement in three days since crossing the Dnieper River. Russian forces continue conducting regular long-range strikes (missiles and drones) on military-industrial targets, energy infrastructure, and logistical hubs in the oblast. Key targets included defense factories, repair facilities, and rail nodes supporting the Ukrainian front.

Zaporizhzhia Direction

In the Zaporozhye area, Russian forces have blocked a Ukrainian bridgehead in Aleksandrovka and have reached the southern outskirts of Pokrovskoye. After Russian forces took control of Novy Donbass, they advanced towards Shevchenko and Svetloye, isolating Ukrainian forward positions with drones. Russian forces maintain pressure through artillery, drone strikes, and localized assaults, destroying Ukrainian strongholds and equipment while holding defensive lines.

Kherson Direction

Operations remained largely positional along the Dnipro River. The Russian MOD highlighted successful strikes on Ukrainian crossings, logistics, and manpower concentrations on the right bank. Russian units conducted raids and maintained control over left-bank positions.

In other words, the Russian summer offensive is underway and Ukraine, despite its propaganda offensive, is retreating to the west.

*  *  *

Disclaimer: Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 03:30

Congress Confronts MKULTRA: Testimony Warns Of Ongoing CIA Mind Control Capabilities

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The deep state's favorite tools of control just got dragged back into the light. Today, the House Oversight Committee's Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets held the first congressional hearing on the CIA's MKULTRA program since 1977.

What could have been a dusty historical review turned into a direct warning that the same machinery of mind control, memory manipulation, and behavioral experimentation may never have shut down - and could now run on far more powerful modern engines.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and her colleagues are doing what previous Congresses largely refused to do: forcing sunlight on one of the intelligence community's darkest chapters.

A task force investigating long-classified federal secrets will hold a hearing Tuesday focused on the CIA's controversial MK-Ultra program, a Cold War-era project that explored mind control and behavior modification. @xmanwalton

More: https://t.co/YWKKPgxuoI pic.twitter.com/Bf6r546P3N

— NewsNation (@NewsNation) June 30, 2026

The testimony made one thing unmistakable. The CIA lied to lawmakers decades ago about the program's success. Advances in neuroscience, cyber tools, and artificial intelligence have handed covert operators capabilities Sidney Gottlieb could only dream of. And American citizens remain potential targets.

Watch the first Congressional hearing on MK Ultra since 1977 https://t.co/xYTdan4aL2

— Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) June 30, 2026

MKULTRA ran from the early 1950s into the 1970s. The CIA conducted roughly 149 subprojects involving LSD, hypnosis, electroshock, sensory deprivation, and psychological torture on unwitting Americans - prisoners, mental patients, soldiers, and ordinary citizens.

Most records were deliberately destroyed in 1973. When the program finally surfaced through the Church Committee and Rockefeller Commission in 1975, the agency downplayed its scope and results.

The public was told it was a failure. New testimony says that was never true.

Investigative journalist Tom O'Neill, author of Chaos, told the committee the agency actively misled Congress in 1977. He submitted documents showing the CIA's own earlier claims about LSD experiments contradicted what it later told lawmakers. O'Neill stated flatly: "I believe the agency misled Congress in 1977 when it characterized MK-Ultra as a failure."

He connected dots to figures like psychiatrist Louis Jolyon West and his ties to Charles Manson and Jack Ruby, underscoring how deeply the program reached into real-world events. The message was clear: the full story was buried on purpose.

"Congress Was Never Told The Truth" About Results Of CIA Mind-Control Experiments.https://t.co/afxqoiA51x

"Chaos" Author Tom O'Neill told a House Oversight hearing on Tuesday: "I believe the agency misled Congress in 1977 when it characterized MK-Ultra as a failure." https://t.co/M6DaZHTiCt pic.twitter.com/cbKAKYgZq3

— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) June 30, 2026

One of the most disturbing revelations came from historical documents referenced during the hearing. A participant in the original program documented the ability to replace true memories with false ones without the subject's knowledge.

The exact description: "It's feasible to take the memory of a definite event in the life of an individual, and through hypnotic suggestion, bring about the subsequent conscious recall to the effect that this event never actually took place. But that a different fictional event actually did occur."

If the U.S. government could do this in the 1950s, the question hanging over the room was obvious. What can they do now with AI, brain-computer interfaces, and directed energy tools?

? MK Ultra hearing:

Participant documented he was "able to replace true memories with false memories in people without their knowledge"

He clarified:
It's "feasible to take the memory of a definite event in the life of an individual, and through hypnotic suggestion, bring... pic.twitter.com/LXd3bQD27r

— ?? ?? RyanTiedgen (@RyanTiedgen) June 30, 2026

Author and journalist Stephen Kinzer, who has extensively studied the program and its leader Sidney Gottlieb, warned that Gottlieb effectively held "a license to kill" issued by the U.S. government. Kinzer described how the CIA used "cut-outs" - universities and institutions - to conduct research while keeping its own involvement hidden.

He then delivered the core warning for today: "There have been enormous advances in cyber technology, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence. Covert agencies may have access to tools for mind control that Sidney Gottlieb could not have imagined."

O'Neill agreed. The massive investment in time, money, and research made it unlikely the capabilities were simply abandoned. The technology they built was too valuable.

WATCH journalist and author Dr. @stephenkinzer's opening statement at today's explosive MK Ultra hearing regarding the over classification of secret government programs and the CIA's quest to weaponize mind control against Americans. pic.twitter.com/UwsSJXWBce

— Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (@RepLuna) June 30, 2026

Public suspicion about whether MKULTRA-style techniques ever truly ended is not abstract. In 2024, widespread speculation erupted around the Trump assassination attempt and whether the shooter could have been influenced or programmed through evolved versions of these programs.

The CIA issued a flat denial, calling the claims "utterly false, absurd, and damaging" and insisting MKULTRA ended decades ago.

That denial landed exactly as past CIA statements have landed - with heavy skepticism from those who remember the record destruction, the lies to Congress, and the pattern of "nothing to see here" followed by later revelations.

Rep. Luna has been clear: Americans have been misdirected repeatedly and deserve transparency and accountability from the CIA. Additional MKULTRA documents are being declassified. The task force is pushing for real answers, not another round of limited hangouts.

Critics on both sides have already begun dismissing the effort. Some call it performative. Others worry it will be used as a distraction. The record shows why skepticism exists. Previous investigations produced headlines, limited document releases, and then business as usual inside the intelligence community.

This time the stakes feel different. The technology has advanced. The surveillance state has grown. The same agencies that once ran MKULTRA still operate with massive secrecy and minimal real oversight.

The hearing was never just about history. It is about whether the American people will finally demand an end to secret programs that treat citizens as expendable test subjects or potential assets.

Memory manipulation, behavioral modification, and technological mind control are not science fiction. They were government policy for decades.

The question is no longer whether the CIA once crossed every ethical and constitutional line. The question is whether those lines were ever truly redrawn - or simply moved into newer, harder-to-detect territory.

Rep. Luna and the task force have opened the door. The only acceptable outcome is full declassification, genuine accountability, and a public reckoning that makes clear no agency of the United States government has the right to experiment on its own people in secret.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 22:35

AI Hallucinations Are Exploding In U.S. Courts, New Study Finds

A new analysis from Laine AI suggests that AI-related errors in U.S. court filings are no longer isolated incidents but a rapidly expanding trend. Drawing on hundreds of confirmed cases, the study finds that courts are seeing a growing number of filings containing fabricated citations, inaccurate legal authorities, and other AI-generated mistakes as lawyers and self-represented litigants increasingly incorporate generative AI into their work.

The increase has been dramatic. According to the report, documented AI-related filing errors climbed from just 25 cases in early 2025 to 249 by the fourth quarter of that year, with the pace continuing into 2026. First-quarter 2026 data nearly matched the entire final quarter of 2025 despite covering only part of the year, underscoring how quickly the problem is accelerating.

Geographically, a relatively small number of states account for a disproportionate share of the incidents. California leads the nation with 97 recorded cases, followed by New York, Texas, Florida, and Illinois. Together, those five states represent roughly 40% of all documented AI-related legal filing errors, suggesting that jurisdictions with higher AI adoption are also experiencing more frequent courtroom mistakes.

The study also identifies several fast-growing hotspots. Florida experienced one of the sharpest increases, jumping from just one recorded incident in 2024 to 28 during 2025. Meanwhile, states including Washington, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Nevada, Indiana, Oregon, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Mississippi, and Illinois all began reporting meaningful numbers of AI-related filing errors after previously recording none, indicating that the issue is spreading well beyond a handful of early adopters.

Courts have responded with a wide range of sanctions. California has imposed more than $256,000 in monetary penalties tied to AI-related filing errors, accounting for roughly one-third of all fines identified in the study. However, the likelihood of receiving severe sanctions varies considerably by jurisdiction. Louisiana, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Georgia imposed serious penalties in a much larger percentage of cases than states with higher overall incident counts, highlighting significant differences in judicial approaches.

Perhaps the study's most notable finding is that most AI-related filing mistakes do not originate with attorneys. More than 60% of the documented incidents involved pro se litigants representing themselves, while lawyers accounted for roughly 37% of the cases. The authors suggest that individuals without formal legal training may be relying more heavily on AI tools without adequate review, increasing the likelihood of errors reaching the courtroom.

When AI tools were identified, ChatGPT was the most frequently named platform, though the overwhelming majority of filings either failed to specify which AI system had been used or only implied AI assistance. ChatGPT appeared in 48 documented cases, while tools such as Microsoft Copilot, Claude, Google Gemini, Perplexity, Lexis AI, and Westlaw's AI products were mentioned only occasionally. Because nearly 90% of filings did not clearly identify the software involved, the report notes that assigning responsibility to any particular platform remains difficult.

The most common errors involved outright fabrication. More than half of all recorded AI-related mistakes consisted of nonexistent cases, citations, or legal authorities presented as genuine. Misrepresenting actual legal precedent accounted for another quarter of incidents, while fabricated quotations from real cases represented roughly one-fifth. California, New York, and Texas consistently ranked among the states with the highest numbers across each category.

The report also found that over 80% of AI-related hallucinations occurred in case-law citations rather than statutes, regulations, or supporting exhibits. Because legal arguments often depend on accurately citing precedent, fabricated or inaccurate case law can undermine the credibility of an entire filing and expose litigants to sanctions. The authors conclude that AI can remain a valuable legal research tool, but only if every citation, quotation, and legal authority is independently verified before being submitted to a court.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 22:10

RFK Jr. Announces He's Ending Emergency Liability Protection For COVID-19 Vaccine Makers

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is ending emergency declarations for COVID-19 vaccines, treatments, and medical devices, after determining that the circumstances that resulted in the declarations are no longer in place.

The health secretary in office in early 2020 issued emergency declarations, providing liability protections for companies that made products for COVID-19 and enabling regulators to issue emergency authorizations, which have a lower evidentiary threshold than regular approval.

The declarations were extended multiple times, most recently in 2024 by then-Health Secretary Xavier Becerra through the end of 2029.

They provided broad immunity to manufacturers of the products, as well as people who administered them to others.

Becerra said in the latest extension that while the COVID-19 public health emergency expired in May 2023, COVID-19 “continues to present a credible risk of a future public health emergency” and that keeping the protections in place was necessary to keep the United States prepared for that threat.

Kennedy disagreed, writing in a notice of termination that “circumstances no longer exist to justify emergency use of drugs and biological products during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

He cited how regulators in 2025 revoked emergency authorization for COVID-19 vaccines, transitioning to typical approval for all the shots across all available ages.

“Americans deserve a regulatory system that is transparent, accountable, and rooted in the rule of law,” Kennedy said in a statement.

“By ending these COVID-19 emergency use authorization declarations, we’re reinforcing public confidence that emergency authorities are temporary and targeted.”

To terminate emergency declarations, a health secretary has to provide advance notice that would give a reasonable amount of time to companies to withdraw the products that have been generated under the declarations.

The Food and Drug Administration determined that 12 months is a sufficient period of time, according to health officials. The declarations for vaccines and drugs will thus terminate effective June 29, 2027.

The declarations for medical devices such as COVID-19 tests will only stay in place for 180 days, or until Dec. 26, 2026.

The FDA has been working with manufacturers of all products still under emergency authorization about seeking approval for continued use, and it is reasonable to conclude that manufacturers will be able to generate data that would support fresh filings to regulators, the notice stated.

Officials plan to notify Congress of the development, the Department of Health and Human Services said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 21:45

US Lifts Restrictions On Anthropic's Fable, Mythos AI Models

The US government removed foreign access restrictions on Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos AI models, clearing it for wider distribution after the AI company resolved the Trump administration’s safety controls, less than ‌three weeks after the company was ordered to suspend access to its most advanced AI models over national security risks.

On June 12, the Commerce Department imposed an export control rule via a private letter requiring the company to obtain US permission before allowing any foreign national, regardless of location, to access those two models and before it could be sent to any destination worldwide. In response, the AI company disabled its powerful Mythos 5 AI model and Fable 5, a similar model intended for wider release.

Then after several days of discussions between Anthropic and the Trump admin, late on Tuesday, Anthropic said in a post on X that it had received notice that Commerce was lifting the curbs on access to both models. Some of the restrictions on Mythos had been eased on June 26.

We’ve received notice that the Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

We'll begin restoring access tomorrow, and will share an update soon.

We’re grateful to our users for their patience, and to everyone who worked with us on…

— Anthropic (@AnthropicAI) June 30, 2026

“We’re grateful to our users for their patience, and to everyone who worked with us on redeploying the models,” the company said in its post.
The key to reversing the export controls was assuaging White House officials’ concerns about limiting the ability of bad actors to circumvent the models’ guardrails.

Anthropic said it would restore access to users beginning Wednesday.

In a letter to Anthropic viewed by Bloomberg, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Anthropic had pledged to “proactively deter and address security risks associated with the models.” On Tuesday evening, Lutnick tweeted that "over the past two weeks, we have worked closely with Anthropic to analyze and approve Fable 5 to ensure alignment across the US Government and strengthen America’s leadership in AI."

Over the past two weeks, we have worked closely with Anthropic to analyze and approve Fable 5 to ensure alignment across the US Government and strengthen America’s leadership in AI. https://t.co/PtVJWyQ9kH

— Howard Lutnick (@howardlutnick) June 30, 2026

The department’s export control directive marked the most significant intervention by the US government to date into an AI venture’s operations and sparked legal questions over whether export controls can be used to regulate AI model access. The consequences may still have last impact, as they spotlighted governance risks for Anthropic just as the company is charting its initial public offering.

As AI influencer Alex Finn pointed out, the crackdown on both Chinese models and frontier US models will likely prompt more consumers to roll out their own local models.

Everyone on planet Earth is talking about local AI right now

And for good reason

Governments are banning models. Hardware prices are 10xing

You NEED to be getting into local AI. The number 1 questions everyone has though is which computer to buy?

Here's your answer:

You… pic.twitter.com/w3pl6RTg6K

— Alex Finn (@AlexFinn) June 28, 2026

As Bloomberg notes, the move to relax the restrictions also relieves tension that was weighing on Anthropic’s already-tenuous relationship with the Trump administration. The company is suing the Pentagon after Secretary Pete Hegseth moved in March to designate it a supply-chain risk following a messy and unsuccessful contract renegotiation process.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 21:26

Whistleblower Documents Highlight Serious Safety Concerns For NIH Virus Lab In Montana

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

Internal documents from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) spotlight growing public alarm about safety and the labs that perform dangerous virus studies. Last month, I broke a story that exposed NIH virologist Vincent Munster, who faced an FBI investigation after he was caught bringing back deadly viruses from Africa to his NIH lab in Montana, Rocky Mountain Laboratories. New documents show Rocky Mountain Laboratories (RML) continues to be plagued with safety problems, and NIH executives at the Montana site have yet to fix holes in their safety plan that had been revealed back in November when a monkey bit a worker.

I was given these new NIH documents by a whistleblower who said my May exclusive on Vincent Munster "blew up inside the NIH."

"They don't have a real protocol if you're exposed to something at BSL-4," the whistleblower told me about the safety practices at RML.

Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) is the highest safety protocol in virus research. Its precautions are used when studying the world's most lethal pathogens - such as Ebola and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. The NIH has been sent copies of the whistleblower documents for comment, and I will update you with any response.

"They want to do the work at level 4 no matter the cost," said the whistleblower. "Because they think it's the most important work on the planet - that must be done, no matter what it takes."

Earlier this month the Justice Department indicted Munster and one of his lab workers, charging both researchers with two felonies. Munster's actions exposed a distressing pattern of cowboy conduct by virologists working on deadly viruses. According to the FBI's criminal complaint Munster was caught at the airport smuggling in viruses. When law enforcement asked him if he had the required paperwork, he replied that he did.

"I do this all the time," Munster told federal law officials in January. In fact, Munster did not have the required paperwork and has been charged with lying to law enforcement. And Munster's statement - "I do this all the time" - raises questions of whether smuggling viruses is in fact something he does all the time.

Alarming practices at RML

Munster works at the NIH's RML in Hamilton, Montana, where he studies maximum containment pathogens, such as Ebola. RML is one of over a dozen labs in the United States that have a BSL-4 facility. The main virology lab has been operated for many decades by Heinz Feldmann, a leading expert on viruses studied under BSL-4 conditions.

Yet emails released by Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, raise concerns that practices at RML under Feldmann have long been sloppy. An email chain dating to 2011 finds several virologists - Munster, Feldmann and researchers with EcoHealth Alliance - discussing the logistics of shipping virus samples from Africa to the States. In the final email, EcoHealth Alliance's Jon Epstein suggests to Feldman and Munster that Munster can hand carry virus samples on a plane after they are put in a viral transport and recovery (VTR) buffer, which keeps them alive.

"I think you can take up to 2kg with you on commercial flights," emailed EcoHealth Alliance's Jon Epstein.

In the final week of the Biden Administration, EcoHealth Alliance was debarred from participating in federal programs due to their problematic safety practices. However, the emails released by Senator Paul do not show if these virologists followed through and did in fact transport live viruses on a commercial flight back in 2011.

One email provided by the NIH whistleblower shows that Heinz Feldmann was transferred in August 2025 to run the NIH's Integrated Research Facility (IRF) in Maryland. A few months prior to transferring Feldmann, the NIH discovered safety violations at the IRF, which Feldmann was apparently sent in to clean up. This included a frightening instance - apparently a lover's spat - in which a contractor cut holes in an employee's biocontainment suit designed to protect against infection from viruses such as Ebola.

NIH leadership notified the FBI, which launched an investigation.

Since the NIH put Feldmann in charge of the IRF in Maryland last year to clean up problems at that research site, he has been splitting his schedule between Maryland and Montana. During that time, however, the Montana RML has been found to be plagued with its own safety snafus.

Whistleblower documents

Sometime in November 2025, an RML researcher was exposed to Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever "through an accidental breach of personal protective equipment." The safety incident was never made public, however, until a Montana newspaper reported on it months later in February 2026. "The individual remained well and showed no evidence of being infected," an NIH spokesperson told the paper in February. "They have been back at work for some time."

The NIH updated the Montana reporter with more information in May, detailing that the exposure incident was a monkey bite. The NIH also sent the reporter a statement that makes it appear the monkey bite accident was handled in an efficient, by-the-book process, without any hitches, or delays.

Furthermore, details about Providence Hospital in Spokane seem souped-up with government acronyms and biomedical jargon to make the monkey bite patient's treatment appear extra professional and super sciencey.

Here's that NIH statement reported in the Montana paper:

"A November 13, 2025 workplace exposure to Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) occurred in the Biosafety Level 4 facility at NIH's Rocky Mountain Laboratories. The worker is highly experienced, wore all required protective gear, and followed all established procedures at the time of the exposure. The employee was immediately decontaminated, isolated and evaluated by experienced clinical experts in coordination with highly trained safety professionals.

"The patient was transferred to the nearest Regional Emerging Special Pathogen Treatment Center (RESPTC) located at Providence Sacred Heart Medical Center & Children's Hospital in Spokane, Washington.

"Providence is one of 13 Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR)-supported Level 1 RESPTCs, part of the tiered National Special Pathogen System (NSPS) designed to protect patients, communities and the healthcare workforce.

"Established procedures for transport, patient care, waste handling, testing and safety were followed by all involved, from lab staff and agency safety and health support to hospital care team and medical specialists.

"At no time was there any evidence of disease transmission or infection, nor was there ever any risk to staff, caregivers, or the public."

However, NIH claims in May to the Montana newspaper about the "established procedures" in caring for the monkey bite patient are contradicted by documents provided by the whistleblower.

One document shows that Providence hospital in Spokane, which the NIH lauded in that May statement to the Montana reporter and a week later to reporters with Politico, was never part of the NIH's plan for patient treatment, which seems to have been managed through improvisation. And notes from a June NIH meeting show the monkey bite patient's transport - which involved approval from the governors of Montana, Idaho, and Washington - more closely resembled the 1987 road trip comedy film, "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles" than established procedures for a health emergency.

According to NIH documents, the RML staff evaluated and treated the employee on-site after the monkey bite, before sending the patient to St. Patrick's hospital, about an hour away in Missoula. However, that hospital had staffing problems and could only take the NIH patient for three days. NIH then transferred their employee to Providence hospital in Spokane, Washington. But transportation from Montana to Washington passes through the state of Idaho.

"Had to get the approval of all 3 governors for transport through states via Spokane hospital ambulance."

When the hospital in Spokane wanted to discharge the patient, who was found to not be sick, NIH disagreed with the hospital and felt the person needed more days of isolation. "What do you do if they become symptomatic, etc."

NIH then transferred their employee back to RML in Montana, to finish quarantine. "Had to coordinate transport again...with backup RML personnel and emergency personnel. Required intricate communication and used GPS tracking on cell phones for security/arrival time/etc."

However, isolating their employee at RML required modifyng a room to allow the patient to stay those three days "with bedding, towels, food, entertainment" because the room is evidently not actually designed for quarantine.

"It's better to call this a triage room, not a quarantine room," said the whistleblower. "People are not supposed to stay there for days. It's a triage room."

RML officials also discovered complications in testing the patient daily to see if they had been infected with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever and were producing viruses. The only lab apparently capable of testing blood samples for the virus is the CDC in Atlanta. This meant catching the only flight out of nearby Missoula to ensure the patient sample made it each day to the CDC.

"Only one FedEX plane leaves Missoula each day so that restricted testing at CDC."

The NIH's cheerful, jargon-filled statement to the Montana paper about the critical importance of the Providence hospital in Spokane is also contradicted by the RML's plan that was in place to handle exposures to dangerous pathogens.

That plan makes no apparent mention of the Providence hospital in Spokane which the NIH told the Montana paper last May "is one of 13 Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR)-supported Level 1 RESPTCs, part of the tiered National Special Pathogen System (NSPS) designed to protect patients, communities and the healthcare workforce."

But the only hospital that seems to be mentioned in RML's plan, in place at the time of the November monkey bite incident, is St. Patrick's in Missoula.

And notes from a June NIH meeting make clear that problems remain at RML, seven months after the November monkey bite incident. The June notes show that any potentially infected worker is now first transported to St. Patrick's in Missoula "then must figure out where to go from there."

And while the RML had to convert their triage room last year to allow a three-day quarantine for the monkey bite patient, RML is still trying to figure out how to "modify or build new isolation suite at RML for long term isolation."

During the November monkey bite accident, the RML realized they couldn't get daily testing done because there is only one FedEx flight each day from Missoula to the CDC in Atlanta. But to this day they have not figured out another lab that can provide these daily tests to see if an exposed worker has started to produce viruses.

"Also need testing contract for potential RML exposures."

Other RML problems include how the research facility handles viruses after they arrive, such as the viruses that Munster was caught smuggling into the U.S. According to RML's current SOP, field samples received at RML will be immediately taken to the restricted access Field Sample room (2B155B). "This lab is dedicated to handling field samples and all employees with access to this lab must be enrolled in the RML Biosafety Program," reads the SOP.

Once the collected viruses enter the Field Sample room, each sample is then divided into smaller fractions called "aliquots". An aliquot from each sample is then sent to the Maximum Containment Lab to see if the sample might contain dangerous viruses that should only be handled at BSL-4. Other aliquots from each sample are then inactivated to kill any potentially live viruses, so they can be further analyzed.

However, the whistleblower says this protocol has a gaping hole: the Field Sample room is not secure. "There is no lock on the door, no prox access card," said the whistleblower. "It's shared space, and the freezers in there also don't have locks."

Finally, an email from Marshall Bloom, a senior RML researcher, discusses a public meeting in June he attended in Hamilton, where he was asked by local officials and members of the public about recent accidents at the RML and the Vincent Munster matter.

RML employees first learned that Munster and his lab researcher had done something wrong earlier this year, said the whistleblower, when NIH police showed up at RML and escorted them both off the RML campus, taking away all their access privileges. They were also required to surrender any government devices.

However, federal employees are prohibited from speaking about ongoing federal investigations, and even the Justice Department generally will not confirm the very existence of an investigation before charges are filed. It was only when my story broke in May that RML researchers learned Munster was being investigated by the FBI after he was caught trying to smuggle in viruses. More details did not become public until June 2, when the Justice Department announced that both Munster and his lab researcher were being charged with felonies.

Yet Marshall told the audience in Hamilton that day that this issue "was now well publicized and working its way through the criminal justice system." He added, "We demurred providing additional information and repeatedly stressed the presumption of innocence."

"I don't know why the presumption of innocence," the whistleblower said. "Don't weigh in; don't say anything. First, we weren't really told anything about what happened with Munster when it all started, but he set it up like scientists are now trying to circle the wagons."

Marshall added that, in the public discussion, the audience brought up "biological weapons, Kris Newby's book Bitten and some more general questions about safety."

"There's lots of good science at RML," said the whistleblower. "But this is a shocking example where they have found problems, and they just kept going on, without any real plan. Hoping no one would get infected. It's just ridiculous."

The person added one final note: "A lot of people at RML are really frustrated."

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 19:15

Today's Colorado Primaries Could Impact The Midterm Elections Nationwide

Colorado Democrats vote Tuesday in primaries that could hand Republicans their most useful campaign weapon of the 2026 midterms: proof that the socialist wave crashing through New York City was never just a New York problem.

An election worker sorts ballots for the US midterm election in Grand Junction, Colorado, on November 8, 2022. [File: Jason Connolly/AFP]

Three weeks ago, the Democratic Socialists of America notched a trio of wins in New York City that sent establishment Democrats into a panic. Darializa Avila Chevalier knocked off Rep. Adriano Espaillat, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, in the 13th District on a platform that included shutting down prisons, eliminating ICE, erasing the southern border, and opposing the deportation of illegal immigrants regardless of criminal record. Claire Valdez took the 7th District running on citizenship and voting rights for people who entered the country illegally, taxpayer-funded transgender medical treatment, and the elimination of private health insurance. Brad Lander won in the 10th District by nearly 30 points, defeating Rep. Dan Goldman, one of the most prominent anti-Trump voices in the caucus and the man who led the push to impeach the president.

Colorado now gets to answer the question everyone in Washington has been asking since New York's results came in: was that a fluke confined to one deep-blue city, or the opening act of something bigger? Sen. Michael Bennet and Rep. Diana DeGette, two of the biggest names in Colorado Democratic politics, both face primary challenges that party insiders are taking far more seriously than they expected to a month ago.

CNN's Harry Enten warned Democrats about the implications last week after the New York primaries. "What is true in New York City in a Democratic primary ain't necessarily true nationwide with the general electorate," Enten said last week. The Democratic Socialists of America have a net favorable rating of +17 among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, according to Enten's data, but are 27 points underwater with the electorate as a whole. That 44-point canyon between the party's base and everyone else is precisely the gap Republicans intend to exploit. "Socialism has become increasingly popular among Democrats, but it is a much tougher sell in the rest of the electorate," Enten said. Favorable views of socialism among Democrats climbed from 50% in 2010 to 66% today. Among everyone else, the number has barely moved, sitting at 30% now versus 29% sixteen years ago.

Polls show socialism is on the rise in the Democrat party but still highly unpopular amongst the overwhelmingly majority of Americans.

CNN: “Socialism has become increasingly popular among Democrats, but it is a much tougher sell in the rest of the electorate." pic.twitter.com/2vysympwRW

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) June 25, 2026

Bennet abandoned his Senate seat to run for governor and now finds himself locked in a tighter-than-expected race against Attorney General Phil Weiser. A poll from the left-leaning firm PPP also showed Bennet trailing Weiser outside the margin of error, and two Democratic strategists familiar with the campaign said internal numbers track the same direction. "There may be only a slight Bennet advantage at this point," said a Democratic strategist close to the race, granted anonymity to speak candidly, who described private polling as "all over the place." Weiser, despite having eight years' experience running the attorney general's office, has somehow managed to cast himself as the outsider, branding Bennet a creature of Washington. Strategists say the message is sticking with primary voters who want nothing to do with anyone who smells like the establishment this cycle.

DeGette's situation looks worse. After serving three decades in the House, she faces democratic socialist Melat Kiros. Internal polling has tightened to within the margin of error, and donors who dismissed the threat for weeks are suddenly paying attention. "It's not looking great," said one Colorado Democratic strategist familiar with DeGette's numbers. "It's very tough when you're fighting against a wave." DeGette rolled out a last-minute endorsement video from Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), former chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. This move backfired with some progressives, given that Kiros already has Sen. Bernie Sanders in her corner.

Sen. John Hickenlooper is fending off his own challenge from state Sen. Julie Gonzales, with a private survey showing a dead heat in Denver even as a late-May public poll had Hickenlooper ahead 41% to 34% amid heavy undecideds. National DSA chapters have run phone banks for Kiros nearly daily, and Denver organizers expect close to 100,000 doors knocked by the time polls close.

"There's a lot of anti-establishment momentum because voters are so angry," Doug Friednash, a longtime Colorado Democratic strategist, said. "They want to take it out on someone. They want fighters." Denver isn't New York, and Democrats note that the city's DSA infrastructure remains smaller, and that DeGette's name recognition runs deeper than Espaillat's ever did. But Denver has also grown younger and more restless, and that combination worries establishment Democrats.

Republicans are watching with open delight. "That's what the left is putting out. It's these radical leftists that are being elected. They're being inspired by Mamdani, AOC, Bernie Sanders," RNC Chairman Joe Gruters told Newsmax, adding that the trend hands the GOP favorable matchups in competitive districts nationwide. "The people are going to reject this at the polls," Gruters said, betting that a party drifting this far left has wandered clean off the map most American voters still occupy.

If Colorado follows New York's lead, Democrats won't just be arguing about ideology inside their own party, they'll be handing Republicans a ready-made message for the 2026 midterms that the Democratic Party as a whole has become too radical for mainstream America.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 18:50