Individual Economists

Watch: US Vows To Unleash Full Arsenal Of Tools Against UK PM Starmer's War On Free Speech

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Watch: US Vows To Unleash Full Arsenal Of Tools Against UK PM Starmer's War On Free Speech

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

As Keir Starmer’s Labour regime tightens the noose on online freedom, the United States has issued a blistering warning: nothing is off the table to defend free speech in Britain.

With government appointed regulator Ofcom now formally investigating Elon Musk’s X over Grok-generated images, American officials are rallying against what they call authoritarian tactics straight out of a tyrant’s playbook.

Sarah B Rogers, US Under-Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy, has assured the British people that the Trump administration will counter any assault on X with the same tools used to pierce internet blackouts in oppressive states. This clash exposes Labour’s selective outrage—obsessed with AI bikinis while turning a blind eye to genuine dangers like grooming gangs.

The escalation builds on threats from Starmer’s government floating a total ban on X over Grok’s image generation capabilities, under the tyrannical Online Safety Act. Critics have slammed the move as a thinly veiled bid to silence dissent on the one platform where globalist narratives get shredded daily.

While anything meaningful takes years to progress through government in the UK, within days of sounding an intention to crackdown, they have made it illegal to create what they claim are ‘sexualised’ AI images.

Now, the crackdown has advanced. Ofcom announced its probe into X, claiming concerns over “Grok AI chatbot account on X being used to create and share undressed images of people – which may amount to intimate image abuse or pornography – and sexualised images of children that may amount to child sexual abuse material.”

The regulator’s X post detailing the investigation drew sharp irony for disabling replies, blocking public pushback.

In a GB News interview, Rogers dismissed Labour’s actions as politically driven, emphasizing America’s commitment to free expression amid Britain’s slide toward censorship.

She stated that the government’s ban threats were politically motivated—and that “given the pro-censorship inclinations of the British state in recent memory, I can’t say that we’ll be shocked” if it followed through.

Rogers outlined US capabilities: “America has a full range of tools that we can use” to open up internet access in “authoritarian, closed societies where the Government bans it.”

She added, “We are facilitating uncensored internet in Iran right now,” nodding to Starlink’s role in bypassing regime controls.

Directly addressing Starmer’s stance, Rogers fired back: “With respect to a potential ban of X, Keir Starmer has said that nothing is off the table. I would say from America’s perspective, nothing is off the table when it comes to free speech.”

She continued, “Let’s wait and see what Ofcom does and we’ll see what America does in response. This is an issue dear to us, and I think we would certainly want to respond.”

Praising Trump and Vance as “huge champions” of free speech, Rogers recalled Trump’s own ban from pre-Musk Twitter: “Our leadership understands this because President Trump was himself a target of censorship. President Trump was banned by Twitter – the old regime before Elon bought it.”

Invoking Alexei Navalny’s comparison of Trump’s ban to Putin’s tactics, she stressed: “You have to take that comparison seriously. That’s why our President cares about this issue – because people couldn’t deal with his popularity, they couldn’t deal with his success, and they tried to just shut him up so no one could hear him.”

Rogers also mocked Labour’s “ensure women and girls are safe online” rhetoric, highlighting hypocrisy: in the “real world” one of the party’s council leaders called grooming gang victims “white trash.” Rogers asserted that if the government “cared about women’s safety, it would have acted differently on grooming gangs.”

This US intervention aligns with Trump’s track record of challenging UK overreach, from suspending tech deals to offering asylum for “thought criminals.” Starmer’s plummeting approval—now at 11 percent—fuels his desperation to control narratives, especially on X where his deceptions get community-noted relentlessly.

Labour’s push mirrors EU efforts to muzzle X under similar pretexts, but the selective targeting reeks of fear: Grok isn’t the only AI capable of such outputs, yet X’s embrace of unfiltered truth makes it enemy number one.

As Ofcom’s probe unfolds, the Trump team’s assurances signal a potential transatlantic showdown. Britain’s globalist elite can’t suppress voices forever—America’s stand reminds them that freedom fighters have powerful allies ready to act.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/14/2026 - 06:30

Where Going To The Gym Is Most (Un)Popular

Zero Hedge -

Where Going To The Gym Is Most (Un)Popular

Exercising more is again one of the most popular New Year’s resolutions in the United States.

Yet where data shows that January tends to see a higher number of gym sign ups than other months, it also reveals that the goal falls by the wayside for many not long after.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, according to Statista data, only 15 percent of U.S. adults had paid for a gym membership in the 12 months prior to the survey.

Where Going to the Gym is Most (Un)Popular | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

How many actually used the service regularly though is another question.

French and Italian respondents were even less enthusiastic about the gym, with only eight percent and 13 percent, respectively, saying they had invested in a gym membership.

By comparison, going to the gym was far more popular in Brazil and India.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/14/2026 - 05:45

Ukraine Blocks Polymarket, Classifies Prediction Markets As Gambling

Zero Hedge -

Ukraine Blocks Polymarket, Classifies Prediction Markets As Gambling

Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ukraine has blocked access to the prediction market platform Polymarket, classifying its activities as unlicensed gambling under national law.

The decision was issued by the National Commission for the Regulation of Electronic Communications (NCEC) on Dec. 10, 2025, under Resolution No. 695. The ruling requires internet service providers to restrict access to online resources that organize, conduct or facilitate gambling without a valid license.

As part of the enforcement, the domain polymarket.com has been added to Ukraine’s public register of blocked websites, effectively cutting off local access to the platform, local news outlets reported on Monday.

Polymarket differentiates itself from traditional betting sites by allowing users to buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of real-world events, with prices reflecting market-implied probabilities, rather than offering fixed odds.

Ukraine slams Polymarket over war-related bets

The ban on Polymarket comes as Ukrainian authorities have criticized the platform for facilitating bets on geopolitical events linked to Russia’s invasion.

Polymarket is restricted across 33 other countries, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Belgium, Iran, Singapore, Iraq, North Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Australia.

Polymarket already blocks some regions in Ukraine. Source: Polymarket

Founded in 2020 by Shane Coplan, Polymarket has grown into one of the most prominent prediction platforms globally, with an estimated valuation of $8 billion. All bets on Polymarket are placed using the USDC  stablecoin on the Polygon blockchain, making transactions and settlements publicly verifiable.

US lawmaker looks to ban insider trading on prediction markets

As Cointelegraph recently reported, US Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation that would restrict insider trading on prediction markets, following scrutiny over a highly profitable bet linked to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The proposed measure, known as the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, would bar federal lawmakers, political appointees and executive branch employees from trading contracts tied to political or policy outcomes when they possess nonpublic information gained through their official roles.

Last week, Tennessee’s sports betting regulator also ordered Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com to halt the offering of sports event contracts to residents of the state.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/14/2026 - 05:00

"Spy Center": China Plans Secret Room Near Sensitive Cables In London Mega Embassy

Zero Hedge -

"Spy Center": China Plans Secret Room Near Sensitive Cables In London Mega Embassy

Chinese officials plan to construct a concealed underground chamber adjacent to some of Britain's most sensitive communications infrastructure as part of their proposed new "super embassy" in London, according to planning documents reviewed by The Telegraph.

Illustration via The Telegraph

The chamber forms part of an extensive subterranean complex comprising 208 rooms beneath the embassy site at the former Royal Mint.

The Telegraph reports:

The drawings show that a single concealed chamber will sit directly alongside fibre-optic cables transmitting financial data to the City of London, as well as email and messaging traffic for millions of internet users.

The same hidden room is fitted with hot-air extraction systems, possibly suggesting the installation of heat-generating equipment such as advanced computers used for espionage. The plans also show that China intends to demolish and rebuild the outer basement wall of the chamber, directly beside the fibre-optic cables.

The revelations have prompted sharp criticism from senior UK Conservative figures, including Alicia Kearns, the shadow national security minister, who described approving the plans as providing “a launchpad for economic warfare at the heart of the central nervous system of our critical national infrastructure”.

Illustration via The Telegraph

“The unredacted plans reveal a concealed room running immediately alongside the fibre-optic cables critical to the City and Canary Wharf. Telegraph readers don’t need me to spell out the obvious threats posed, nor China’s subterfuge – so why does the Labour Government?” Ms. Kearns told the newspaper.

Illustration via The Telegraph

The Telegraph further reports on why the proximity to the cables is cause for national security concerns:

Carrying signals bearing the innermost financial secrets of the British economy, the cables stretch between the Telehouse group of data centres in Docklands and other centres around the capital. Linked together, these form the core of the London Internet Exchange (Linx). Beyond London, they connect to Atlantic cables linking to the US.

Linx is one of the biggest internet exchange points in the world, handling vast volumes of data spanning everything from financial transactions to instant messages and emails.Its cables carry the financial transaction data relied upon by banks to update withdrawals and deposits, such as ordinary people’s salary packets and payments for goods bought online.

Professor Alan Woodward, a security expert at the University of Surrey, told The Telegraph that China's plans pose a “red flag.”

“There’s a long history of cable-tapping by East and West alike. Anyone who can do it has done it," Woodward said. “Espionage isn’t just about state secrets. Economic intelligence is central to the mission of foreign intelligence services."

“If I were in their shoes, having those cables on my doorstep would be an enormous temptation,” he added.

Dominic Cummings, who served as then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s chief aide, said MI5 warned him China was “trying to build a spy centre underneath the embassy”.

Illustration via The Telegraph

Nonetheless, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is reportedly expected to approve the embassy construction plans ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-stakes visit to Britain.

Just bloody brilliant, mate!

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/14/2026 - 04:15

West Africa Under Jihadist Threat: Sahel States Surrendering Sovereignty To Islamic Terrorist Groups

Zero Hedge -

West Africa Under Jihadist Threat: Sahel States Surrendering Sovereignty To Islamic Terrorist Groups

Authored by Lawrence Franklin vi The Gatestone Institute,

Al-Qaeda's branch in Africa's Sahel region has been laying siege to Mali's capital city, as well as other areas of the country. The Algerian-based Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its affiliated Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (Support Group for Islam and Muslims, JNIM) are cutting a wide swath of terrorist operations across West Africa's Sahel region. This coalition of Jihadist groups now threatens the sovereignty of Mali and several other Sahelian states.

Islamist operatives now control all the main routes in and out of Bamako, Mali's capital city, cutting it off from fuel, food, and friendly neighbors. JNIM militants have also targeted Mali's transport, communications, educational network, and economic infrastructure in rural regions. Some towns in Mali are negotiating deals with Jihadist groups to secure some semblance of liberty and save their lives by agreeing to adopt Islamic Sharia law and pay "protection taxes" (jizyah) to Islamic officials.

Burkina Faso and Niger, two other Sahel states, landlocked like Mali, are also under severe pressure by the al-Qaeda affiliated JNIM to surrender their sovereignty to hardcore Sunni Islamic extremists. All three countries, once colonies of France's West African Empire, have in the past five years expelled French troops who had been assisting the host governments. All three are governed by non-democratic military juntas with little popular support, and thus have been unable to deal effectively with their common Jihadist threat.

These military regimes, which have formed the "Alliance of Sahel States," brought in mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group and Africa Corps to replace French troops. Yet the Russians have been failing in their mission to shore up the juntas. Moscow's mercenaries suffered a major defeat in July 2024, near Mali's border with Algeria, at the hands of Tuareg rebels, who are also allied with the Al-Qaeda-linked Jihadists. Reportedly, dozens of Russian troops were killed during an ambush that occurred during a desert sandstorm.

Jihadist recruits in the Sahel are primarily ethnically Tuareg, some of whom desire to establish an independent state in what is now northern Mali. The region's other minorities, particularly in Mali, are also attracted to Islamist terrorist groups, including semi-nomadic Fulani tribesmen who populate the semi-deserts of the Sahel. Criminal networks have similarly thrown their lot in with the Jihadists, making money from kidnap ransoms and the sale of purloined gold shavings from Sahelian mines.

The Jihadist threat is not limited to the Sahel, but exists in the entirety of West Africa. For example, JNIM attacks now include assaults on the coastal African countries of Togo and Benin. There is even a report of a JNIM-sponsored foray across the border into Northwest Nigeria.

While most of the terrorist violence can be attributed to al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, Islamic State militants are also a predatory agent in the region. Fortunately, Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State jihadists also clash against one another.

Unless there is some urgent military assistance from the West, the success of the terrorists will continue. Logistical requirements of such external-based military aid would probably necessitate the establishment of a rescue corridor inside the territory of Ghana or the Ivory Coast. Alternatively, the juntas may be able to strike a temporary deal with either the Al-Qaeda or Islamic State proxies over sharing governmental powers -- further delegitimizing the junta regimes and deteriorating the future of West Africa. Unless there is an immediate Western intervention, one or more of these military regimes is likely to suffer a terrorist takeover in 2026.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/14/2026 - 03:30

Venezuela Begins Gradual Release Of Imprisoned Americans Post-Maduro

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Venezuela Begins Gradual Release Of Imprisoned Americans Post-Maduro

After US forces on January 3rd helicoptered into Caracas as Navy warships and aircraft bombed Venezuelan territory, and seemingly effortlessly nabbed President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, one wonders what took so long?

"The Venezuela government has started releasing prisoners with US citizenship, people with knowledge of the situation said," Bloomberg reports Tuesday evening. "The authorities on Tuesday released at least one US citizen who already left the country, the people said, declining to identify the individual for security reasons."

via AP

There is a planned for gradual release of American prisoners, of which there are not believed to be many. 

Just ahead of the Trump-ordered military strikes and brief invasion, various reports indicated at least 5 Americans were being held, including a New York man who only recently went missing after entering Venezuela (it's not known whether he had a visa or not). 

As The NY Post detailed:

At least five Americans, including a New Yorker, are being detained in Venezuela following the Trump administration’s latest military and economic pressure campaign against Caracas, according to a new report.

James Luckey-Lange, 28, of Staten Island, is among the recently US citizens imprisoned in Venezuela, with the New Yorker deemed to be wrongfully detained, officials told the New York Times.

Luckey-Lange, whose family reported him missing earlier this month, disappeared soon after entering Venezuela’s border as part of a long trip across Latin America that was inspired by the death of his mother, musician Diane Luckey.

The latest reports after Maduro's ouster indicate he's still in the custody of the country's federal police, and that the new administration of acting President Delcy Rodríguez has not released him. Lucky-Lange's family is pleading for his release, and has appealed to both Trump and the Rodríguez government.

Trump has controversially praised the Rodríguez government, saying last week in a Fox interview: "they've been great. ... Everything we've wanted, they've given us."

However, Americans deemed wrongfully detained are still apparently in custody. Last week some 100 political prisoners of Venezuelan as well as foreign nationalities were let go.

"Venezuela released a number of imprisoned high-profile opposition figures, activists and journalists — both citizens and foreigners — Thursday in what the government described as a gesture to 'seek peace' less than a week after former President Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces to face drug-trafficking charges," The Associated Press indicated.

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/14/2026 - 02:45

In 2025, Germany Saw Bankruptcies Hit 20-Year High

Zero Hedge -

In 2025, Germany Saw Bankruptcies Hit 20-Year High

Via Remix News,

The latest economic figures for Berlin are dramatic, revealing that 2025 saw more companies file for bankruptcy than at any point in the last two decades, all despite a promised economic turnaround from the Christian Democrat (CDU) government.

The wave of insolvencies grew significantly toward the end of the year, affecting the lives of thousands of employees. According to the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle, the annual total reached a historically high 17,604 bankruptcies. This translates to an average of 48 partnerships and corporations going out of business every day in Germany, according to Bild newspaper.

“Even in the wake of the major financial crisis in 2009, the number was around 5 percent lower,” the institute explained.

December was particularly severe, with 1,519 insolvency applications filed. This figure was 75 percent higher than the average for December between 2016 and 2019, prior to the pandemic.

Jonas Eckhardt, an economic expert from the transformation consultancy Falkensteg, told Bild that “the German economy is no longer just struggling with headaches. She’s got a fever. That won’t change anytime soon.“

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller, Head of IWH Insolvency Research, observed that the “increase was broad and no one was spared, though sectors like hospitality, construction, and real estate suffered particularly heavily.”

He noted that the interest rate increase at the end of 2022 has put a stop to some of the plans in those industries.

Bild goes on to cite a number of companies hit with bankruptcies.

In Saxony, a sausage company dismissed its entire staff, while the Leifert bakery chain in Lower Saxony affected 220 employees with its insolvency. Other large bakeries like Hansen Mürwik also filed for bankruptcy, impacting 145 workers.

Large corporations are also struggling. A survey by Falkensteg found that 471 companies with annual sales exceeding 10 million euros filed for insolvency, a 25 percent increase over the previous year. Since 2021, these major insolvencies have nearly tripled.

Less than a week ago, Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that parts of the German economy are in a “very critical state.” In the article from Bloomberg, it notes that while Merz did not specify which sectors, the car industry is seen as especially hard hit. This is due in large part to Chinese competition slowly crushing German companies, a topic Remix News has written extensively on.

While Müller points out that insolvency can be a market adjustment that makes room for future-proof companies, many businesses continue to struggle for survival. Jonas Eckhardt emphasized to Bild that for many medium-sized companies, the situation is no longer just an economic downturn but a question of survival. Experts do not anticipate a turnaround in 2026 and instead expect a further increase in bankruptcies among large companies.

Germany is not the only country struggling in Europe. Last month, French President Emmanuel Macron went to China essentially to beg for help, saying, according to Politico, that “European industry is facing a ‘life or death’ moment.”

“I am trying to explain to the Chinese that their trade surplus is untenable and that they are killing their own customers, mainly by not importing much from us,” Macron said, according to Politico.

Now, after Europeans complained about Trump issuing tariffs against China and Europe, Europe is considering pursuing the same tactic. At least, that is the threat Macron just issued China if the country does not refrain from relentlessly outcompeting the EU on trade, exports, and innovation.

Following the meeting in China, notably, no major business deals were signed, and on most key points, analysts say Macron walked away mostly empty-handed in regard to the major issues.

Remarkably, China almost completely rejected mass immigration and has about as many foreigners in the country as just one German city, Berlin.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 01/14/2026 - 02:00

The Forgotten Man

Zero Hedge -

The Forgotten Man

Authored by Be Water,

The 2008 Crisis Never Ended

Do you wish to know [when] that day is coming? Watch money. Money is the barometer of a society’s virtue. When you see that [commerce is conducted], not by consent, but by compulsion—when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing—when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors—when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you–when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice—[then] you may know [that day has arrived]… 

—Francisco d’Anconia

No Country For Young Men

For most of America, the headlines trumpeting a “strong economy” and “stocks at record highs” land like a cruel joke. Michael W. Green’s recent series My Life Is A Lie attempted to quantify the economic devastation felt by the majority of the country these many years. This carnage has been sanctified by our technocrats—an Aztec priesthood invoking sacred economic statistics as celestial omens to justify the ritual sacrifice of society on the altars of GDP and the S&P 500.

Green, an investment industry insider, gave voice to the Forgotten Man:

Predictably, the priesthood declared heresy. Economists, journalists, thought leaders, think tanks, and other fellow travelers circled the wagons, tearing apart Green’s numbers, splitting hairs, and nitpicking his methodology.

That is a grave mistake.

Fiddling While Rome Burns

How can you expect a man who’s warm to understand a man who’s cold?

—One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich, Alexander Solzhenitsyn

This sort of wonkish debate—whether the poverty line is $30k or $140k, whether CPI is 2% or 4%—exemplifies the scientism enabling our national dissolution: the religious belief that the statistical map is more real than the economic territory. Perhaps such effete technocratic sophistry could be tolerated—even indulged—were the body politic unified. But it is a fatal conceit in such a Balkanized powder keg of a nation.

Into this highly combustible environment, Green’s essays landed like an errant spark. If nothing else, Green forced a long-overdue reckoning with a reality that the credentialed class has steadfastly refused to acknowledge: that they themselves have spent decades drowning the American Dream in a flood of ruinous policy, even as they now insist that the water level is perfectly fine and that Americans are simply bad swimmers.

Such an acknowledgment, however, would be tantamount to confessing that their entire worldview—the long Postwar Consensus—rests on a meticulously constructed lie. That the intellectual facade of modern finance and economics, the modern monetary system and central banking, fiscal and monetary policy, financialization, globalism—all of it—has strip-mined the nation and fracked the American bedrock, leaving behind a slag heap of poverty, misery, and rage in place of the prosperity it promised.

That their own lives have been a lie.

From Picket Fences To Shoebox Micro-Apartments

The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.

—Winston Smith

Whether Green’s numbers withstand academic scrutiny is altogether beside the point. His essays struck such a visceral nerve because Green—as someone with institutional investment credentials—put numbers to what millions have experienced firsthand for decades. And he did so at precisely the moment when their long-simmering rage is boiling over.

And then the Minnesota headlines broke.

If Green’s essays were a stray spark drifting toward the powder keg, these revelations of fraud represented a blazing torch hurled straight at it. Billions have been bled from the American middle class—those who can barely afford their own children—to bankroll the imaginary children of fraudsters.

But the scale of the plunder extends far beyond one state:

The populace’s rage, therefore, springs from a well far deeper than Green’s economic statistics—or any one else’s, for that matter—could ever fully plumb. Understanding this fury—and its implications for both our civilization and our portfolios—requires returning to an existential question we posed five years ago: how did we devolve from the society depicted in the New Yorker’s 1957 Christmas cover (left) to that depicted in its 2020 Christmas cover (right)?

Source: The New Yorker

These two contrasting images—set six decades apart—bear witness to a birthright betrayal so absolute that it defies measurement. The transformation seems inconceivable: in the course of a single lifetime, how did the most prosperous civilization in history come to cannibalize its children’s futures?

Asked differently, how could prior generations buy houses, raise families, and afford healthcare on a single income—and then retire—while younger generations drown in debt, face bleak job prospects, are cursed to rent forever, risk financial ruin from hospital visits, and accumulate pets rather than rear children?

Why do so many feel worse off than even a decade ago, despite record asset prices and strong GDP growth? And why has this malignancy metastasized simultaneously throughout the Western world—the US, Europe, Canada, Australia?

The answers won’t be found in economic textbooks, models, and policy papers that led us here in the first place. Nor will they emerge from the clerisy who authored them:

But answer these questions, and the chaos of our age suddenly resolves into clarity: not only the financial stress, but the seething rage erupting across Western nations worldwide. The collapse not merely of institutional trust, but of societal trust writ large. The rise of populism and politically motivated violence. The pervasive sense that the very fabric of civilization—if not reality itself—is being torn apart at the seams. The gnawing feeling shared by ordinary people that they are struggling to survive a precarious interlude before some major cataclysm strikes.

Mr. Market’s Schizophrenic Break Of 2020

The madness of the 2020-2021 COVID era was apocalyptic—literally a lifting of the veil: governments induced a global economic coma yet asset prices—the economy’s vital signs—registered euphoric highs. It was as if a comatose patient’s monitors indicated an Olympic athlete in peak condition—the clearest illustration of what Green is now attempting to quantify.

Meme stocks, fake currencies, and bankrupt companies—indeed all assets—went parabolic even as the economy flatlined.

We call this period Mr. Market’s Schizophrenic Break, the absurdity of which was perhaps best encapsulated by David Portnoy (aka “Davey Day Trader”) picking stocks out of a scrabble bag on Twitter and CNBC—a strategy that consistently worked!

Source: @stoolpresidente

Source: @EnronChairman

The Financial Matrix

Portnoy himself saw through this surreal facade during the height of the COVID market mania:

The good news is I know it’s rigged. The government is [saying] don’t worry we’re just gonna create a trillion-billion-zillion dollars. It’s fantasy land. It’s Schrute Bucks [fake money from a popular TV show]. It’s the worst coronavirus day in a while and the government is saying don’t worry about it cause we’re gonna print a quadrillion dollars and the market sky rockets. The stock market is disconnected from reality. The whole thing is a pyramid scheme. We’re living in the Matrix.

Portnoy wasn’t merely ranting, however—he had unwittingly laid bare the central economic mystery of our age, one that somehow eluded our credentialed classes: that the numbers and charts streaming across Bloomberg terminals had become utterly divorced from the reality of everyday life.

In this inverted Bizarro World, bankruptcy was bullish, currencies invented as a joke were enormously valuable, and picking stocks from a Scrabble bag was a wise investment strategy.

With a degenerate gambler’s uncanny intuition for detecting rigged games, Portnoy had stumbled onto a profound truth: that financial reality had somehow been replaced with an elaborate, videogame-like simulation—the Financial Matrix. This self-contained universe was governed by its own laws and utterly indifferent to the world it was supposed to represent.

The 2020-2021 COVID madness represented the reductio ad absurdum toward which the entire post-War policy consensus had been hurtling—the culmination of decades of pathology that had metastasized to such absurd extremes that it became impossible to ignore even for laymen like Portnoy and his “degen” followers.

But while Portnoy had correctly identified the symptoms, he had not diagnosed the underlying disease. Five years ago this month—amidst the heights of the COVID market mania—we set out to identify the cancer at the heart of the global financial system, to understand how virtual reality had replaced reality, and to assess the implications for investing.

The result was The Sorcerer’s Apprentice & The Man Who Broke The Markets. In Sorcerer, we traced the vectors of metastasis—monetary, memetic, algorithmic—that had spread through the global financial system, mapping the ways this cancer would ultimately upend markets, economies, and societies worldwide.

We originally published Sorcerer privately in January 2021. However, as the pathologies we diagnosed then have only intensified in the interim, we felt compelled to expand and update the work for a public audience. This growing urgency also explains why Green’s recent series resonates so deeply now. The economic cancer we diagnosed in late 2020—having metastasized invisibly for decades, revealing itself only in occasional paroxysms, as in 2008—finally became impossible to ignore when the COVID policy response devoured economic reality itself in 2020-2021, and then in 2022 ignited the worst inflation in five decades.

The Day Is Come

The COVID years—and beyond—mark the fulfillment of Francisco d’Anconia’s prophecy. He exhorted us to watch the money—to read it as the barometer of a society’s virtue. He warned of the day when ‘money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors’ and when ‘men get richer by graft and by pull than by work.’

Look around. That day is not coming; rather it is already here. Green’s essays and recent news headlines merely crystallized the gnawing suspicion that has haunted the American subconscious since at least the 2008 Crisis: that for decades the productive American citizen has been taxed and inflated into serfdom—forced to finance their own dispossession and the demolition of their way of life. Americans have been reduced to human batteries whose life force powers the Financial Matrix.

It is even now dawning on the citizenry that the “strong economy” and “record-setting stock market” are merely mirages conjured by the Financial Matrix—phantom metrics generated by and for the simulation. Meanwhile, in the ‘desert of the real,’ the productive have been treated as enemies, and “those who deal in favors” preside over a Witches’ Sabbath wherein swindlers parade as sages and vice dons the robes of virtue:

Baal, or the World In Masquerade

Here, corruption is rewarded and honesty has become a self-sacrifice—the laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against you: “for my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 23:05

Surrounding Cities Move In As Seattle Pulls Back On Drug Enforcement

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Surrounding Cities Move In As Seattle Pulls Back On Drug Enforcement

A policy shift inside the Seattle Police Department is already generating unintended consequences — and they’re not the ones city leaders were hoping for, Jason Rantz of Seattle 770AM said in a new op-ed this week.

After Seattle Police Chief Shon Barnes told officers that most drug possession and use cases will once again be diverted away from prosecution and into the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEED) program, surrounding law-enforcement agencies moved quickly to capitalize on growing frustration inside SPD’s ranks. Pierce County Sheriff Keith Swank and the Marysville Police Department publicly began recruiting Seattle officers, using social media to pitch what they described as a more supportive environment for policing.

The Conservative commentator said Swank addressed Seattle officers and their union directly on X, telling them Pierce County “has a home for you,” promising strong leadership backing and community support.

Marysville’s police department quickly echoed the message, noting that it had already hired at least eight former SPD officers and highlighting its post-Blake municipal drug code and its own jail — features meant to signal that policing there still carries tangible authority and consequences.

Though the exchanges were framed humorously online, the message behind them was serious. According to the op-ed, Seattle’s renewed emphasis on diversion represents a return to policies that many officers believe stripped meaning from proactive policing.

While Barnes maintains that arrests can still be made, critics argue the system is structured to avoid real accountability by routing repeat drug offenders into a diversion program they view as ineffective and driven more by ideology than results.

The Seattle Police Officers Guild has repeatedly warned that such policies erode morale and compromise public safety. With overdose deaths and visible drug use still widespread, officers are being asked, the author argues, to enforce laws they know will rarely result in lasting consequences.

Other departments, meanwhile, are offering a simpler alternative: come work somewhere you are actually allowed to police.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 22:40

Genes Are Not Your Destiny. How To Modify Your Epigenetics For Longevity

Zero Hedge -

Genes Are Not Your Destiny. How To Modify Your Epigenetics For Longevity

Authored by Makai Allbert via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

We’ve been told that our genetic destiny is written in our DNA. However, research is gradually dismantling this fatalistic view.

Artur Plawgo/Getty Images

Genetics may influence approximately 25 percent to 30 percent of how we age. The remaining portion is influenced by factors entirely within our control: what we eat, how we move, how we handle stress, others, and ourselves.

Lucia Aronica, a Stanford researcher specializing in epigenetics and nutrition, embodies this balance of nature and nurture.

After 17 years of epigenetic research, she sat down for an interview on my new show, “The Upgrade,” highlighting that: “You are not just a passive reader of your genetic code, but an active writer of your health story every day with every choice.”

Rewriting Your Software of Life

Aronica suggests that to understand epigenetics, we should view DNA as computer hardware—an unchangeable biological structure present in every cell—and epigenetics as the software that tells your cells which programs to run and when.

The prefix “epi” means “on top of,” referring to molecular switches that sit atop your genes, turning them on or off without altering the underlying code.

“Here’s the beautiful part: You can rewrite that software starting today,” Aronica said.

The first step? Food.

‘Food Is the Foundation of Everything’

Aronica grew up in Italy, where her mother taught her that “in the kitchen and at the dining table, you don’t get old.”

She calls her approach, “epi-nutrition,” a way of eating that focuses on specific foods that directly influence your epigenetics.

These foods act as more than just fuel and contain nutrients that can turn on the genes that make you healthy and turn off the genes that make you sick, she said.

The key players are methyl donors, nutrients that provide the chemical groups your body uses to regulate genes. They include:

  • Folate: From green leafy vegetables, liver, legumes
  • Vitamin B12: Mainly in meat, fish, shellfish, liver
  • Choline: Mostly egg yolks, liver, and some in cruciferous vegetables
  • Betaine: From beets, quinoa, shrimp, wheat bran

“Your doctor probably told you to eat the rainbow,” Aronica said. “But here’s what your doctor may not realize: those pigments aren’t just antioxidants. They are epi-nutrients that actually regulate the epigenetic writer and eraser enzymes, activating genes that boost your health.”

Therefore, make sure to eat:

  • Red Foods: Tomatoes, bell peppers
  • Orange Foods: Oranges, pumpkin, carrots
  • Brown Foods: Coffee, dark chocolate—greater than 80 percent and non–Dutch processed
  • Purple Foods: Berries
  • Green Foods: Spinach, cruciferous vegetables

In particular, green foods contain sulforaphane, which Aronica calls “the boss of your body’s own antioxidants.” Unlike other vitamins, which work directly and are depleted within hours, sulforaphane activates your body’s internal antioxidant genes, keeping them active for up to three days. Thus, eating cruciferous vegetables (broccoli, Brussels sprouts, arugula) two to three times a week, she said, is enough to “keep your genes happy.”

Rather than memorizing which foods to eat, following the Mediterranean diet offers a reliable template. A wide body of research has shown that adherence to the Mediterranean diet promotes positive gene regulation.

A 2020 study even found that older adults who followed a Mediterranean diet for one year showed signs of what researchers called “epigenetic rejuvenation.” Their gene-regulation shifted toward a younger, healthier profile.

The Body Remembers

Beyond nutrition, Aronica’s approach extends to movement, stress, connection, sleep, joy, and toxin avoidance, which she refers to as “epi-wellness.”

Research shows that even a single bout of high‑intensity exercise can cause immediate changes in gene regulation in your muscles. These kick‑starting processes help them adapt and become fitter.

However, the real benefits come from consistent exercise. A 2024 study comparing trained and untrained men found that years of regular exercise create a lasting “epigenetic fingerprint.” The genes controlling energy use and muscle fiber type become primed to respond more efficiently to each workout. At the epigenetic level, your muscles remember their training. The adaptation helps muscles perform better and develop greater endurance.

Perhaps most remarkably, exercise shifts the epigenome toward a younger biological age. A large meta-analysis of 3,176 human skeletal muscle samples found that people with higher aerobic fitness have younger epigenetic profiles.

Mindset on Epigenetics

“Our beliefs and our feelings shape our epigenetics,” Aronica said.

A systematic review of 18 studies on meditation and related practices, published in Frontiers in Immunology, found a consistent pattern: Mind-body interventions are associated with reduced NF-κB activity, a protein that acts as a master switch for inflammation. When NF-κB is chronically activated, it drives the production of inflammatory molecules linked to accelerated aging. The evidence suggests that meditation can help keep that switch in the “off” position.

Long-term meditators show DNA methylation changes associated with telomere length—the protective caps on chromosomes that shorten with age. Notably, age was not associated with telomere length in long-term meditators, suggesting that their practice may buffer against cellular aging.

A more recent 2025 systematic review found that meditation-based practices seem to reshape how our genes are “managed” in key stress and aging pathways, adding to the NF-κB and telomere findings.

In plain terms, regular mindfulness appears to tweak chemical tags on genes involved in inflammation, immunity, metabolism, and brain health, nudging them toward a pattern linked with lower stress and slower aging.

A Forgotten Variable

In the world of biohacking and longevity optimization, Aronica believes that many people jump from one health protocol to another, often sacrificing something essential in the process: joy.

“There is no sustainable change without joy,” she said. “You’re not going to stick to any lifestyle change, whether it’s food or exercise, if you don’t enjoy it.”

Our brain makes us repeat habits that are good for our health, such as nourishing food, connection, and movement, triggering authentic pleasure as it is “our ancestral compass for health.”

However, the problem with modern society, she said, is that joy is often hijacked by artificial pleasures rather than natural ones.

“I’m not telling you to eat a lot of chocolate or candies or just crawl on social media. That is, unfortunately, a type of addictive pleasure that you want to avoid.”

Aronica adds that once you detox yourself from addictive and artificial pleasures, you can find true pleasure that serves as the foundation for sustainable change. “Once you love and enjoy the food and exercise you do, you’re going to want to do it every day,” she said.

The Harvard Study of Adult Development, which has tracked participants for more than 80 years, arrives at a similar conclusion: The strongest predictor of healthy aging isn’t diet or exercise alone, but rather the quality of relationships and the presence of joy in daily life.

Wielding Your Genetic Pencil

Genes matter, but they are not the final verdict.

Aronica illustrates that “some [DNA] edits, like those made before we were born, are in pen, so tend to be permanent. But the edits we write as adults are in pencil—they can be erased and rewritten.”

Every meal, every workout, every meditation session, and every choice for joy represents an opportunity to pick up that epigenetic pencil and rewrite your health story.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 22:15

Did Anyone Even Notice PBS News Weekend Signed Off Permanently...

Zero Hedge -

Did Anyone Even Notice PBS News Weekend Signed Off Permanently...

"PBS News Weekend" signed off permanently on Sunday after 12 years on air. Did anyone actually notice?

The answer, quite frankly, is no, and this comes after Congress cut $1.1 billion in federal funding for public broadcasting over the Trump administration's view that the public broadcasting outlet was spewing left-wing propaganda.

"Due to federal budget cuts, PBS News had to make the difficult decision to rework our staffing and programming. This Sunday, our PBS News Weekend team will sign off the air," PBS News Weekend wrote on X.

Starting this weekend, PBS will replace the live newscasts with two pre-taped shows produced during the week to save money and eliminate weekend staffing. "Horizons" will air on Saturdays, covering science and technology, while "Compass Points" will air on Sundays, focusing on foreign affairs.

During Sunday's finale, anchor John Yang revealed the behind-the-scenes staff who will be laid off at the end of the month. A review of those staffers only suggests why news coverage skewed far to the left.

We identified seven reasons last year why the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which administers funding for NPR radio stations and PBS TV affiliates, deserved to lose its $1.1 billion in federal support. Those included promoting drag shows, featuring the Marxist group BLM on Sesame Street, an obsession with Pride Month and gay dads, constant streams of left-wing bias, undermining the Covid lab leak narrative, and other examples that suggest PBS was acting less like a news outlet and more like a propaganda arm for left-wing interests.

"This is the first thing coming from NPR I've liked in 20 years," one X user said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 21:50

Waste Of The Day: Questions Arise Over $5.8 Billion In Rental Assistance

Zero Hedge -

Waste Of The Day: Questions Arise Over $5.8 Billion In Rental Assistance

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: The federal government is unable to verify that $5.8 billion in rental assistance paid to more than 204,000 recipients in 2024 was not fraudulent, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s latest annual report.

Key facts: HUD spent $15.2 billion on project-based rental assistance in 2024, which pays local housing authorities or private businesses and nonprofits to build affordable housing. That included $4.3 billion in “questionable payments” to nearly 113,000 groups that may have been ineligible for funding, according to the financial report — a mistake rate of over 26%.

HUD also gave $33.9 billion directly to families to help with rent payments, but the financial report claims $1.5 billion sent to almost 92,000 people was “questionable.” The estimates include $77 million paid to 29,715 dead people and $150.3 million paid to 9,472 people with invalid Social Security numbers.

But most of the flagged payments — $5.2 billion — were sent to people or businesses with inactive registrations in the System for Award Management. The federal government is generally not supposed to pay money to anyone not registered on SAM.gov. The online platform allows officials to ensure that a business is legitimate, not a fictional company trying to steal money from the government. 

Most of the recipients that did not register on SAM.gov were likely legitimate businesses that mistakenly did not follow federal procedure, not organized criminals intentionally breaking the law. Contrary to viral claims on social media, the payments are not all known to be fraudulent.

Still, HUD would have been able to better screen applicants if it was using the Treasury’s Do Not Pay list, which tracks entities with missing paperwork, debt to the government, a history of fraud and more.

The software agreement that gave HUD access to the list expired in 2019, during President Donald Trump’s first term. It remained inactive throughout Joe Biden’s time as president and was not renewed until May 2025, according to HUD’s inspector general, who blamed both presidents for “weak governance around Do Not Pay implementation” in a May 2025 report.

In 2024, HUD sent $212 million to 11 entities on the Do Not Pay list, the inspector general found.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Background: In its latest financial report, HUD relied on what it called “innovative methods and advanced analytics” to analyze millions of payment records, unlike past audits that use a sample of a few hundred records.

HUD also announced it will publish full estimates of improper payments from its two largest rental assistance programs, as required by the Payment Integrity Information Act of 2019. The estimates have never been completed because of “a lack of necessary data, no effective technology platform for collecting supporting documentation, and unsuccessful attempts to manually review information,” according to the financial report.

Limited estimates released in 2024 identified just $45 million in unknown payments from HUD’s rental assistance programs.

Summary: Every oversight gap in safety net programs makes it more difficult to ensure public funds are reaching the people who are legally entitled to them. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 21:25

Egyptian Army Holds Billions In Secret Cash As Country Misses Debt Deadline

Zero Hedge -

Egyptian Army Holds Billions In Secret Cash As Country Misses Debt Deadline

Via Middle East Eye

Egypt's armed forces in December rejected government pleas to help ease the debt crisis despite holding more than Egypt's total foreign debt in secret reserves, senior banking and government officials told Middle East Eye. The claims underscore mounting concerns over the opaque role of Egypt’s military in the economy at a moment of acute fiscal stress, as the government struggles to meet debt obligations amid shrinking foreign currency reserves and tightening domestic liquidity. 

Egypt was expected to pay about $750m in loan repayments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by the end of December but failed to meet the deadline. As a last resort, it was agreed "in principle" for the instalment to be deducted from Egypt’s upcoming IMF tranche, with interest added, official banking sources told MEE.

However, the precise terms of the arrangement remain unclear, with both the Egyptian government and the IMF keeping the details out of the public domain. "The government sought to borrow three trillion Egyptian pounds ($63.7bn) by December, but domestic banks refused, citing limited liquidity," a senior banking official said, speaking on condition of anonymity for security concerns. "With no other borrowing options available, the government turned to the armed forces."

Egyptian special forces soldiers, via AFP

The official added that the head of the military’s Financial and Administrative Authority rejected the request, even after the issue was raised with the defense minister.

"Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly in December called Minister of Defence Abdel-Megeed Saqr, urging him to help cover the latest IMF loan instalment, but the plea was firmly refused," the official, who spoke to MEE in late December, added.

It was not clear why Madbouly did not extend the same request to President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who is the supreme commander of the armed forces and who is presumed to have direct control over the reserves. Egypt’s debt obligations to the IMF include SDR 264 million ($377.8m) in December and SDR 194 million ($277.6m) in January.* Broader external debt obligations for the year 2025 exceeded $60bn.

The banking official also claimed that the country’s military holds a sizable amount of dollar reserves, which are inaccessible to civilian authorities. The official provided an estimate that exceeds Egypt’s total external debt of $161bn. MEE is not citing the exact amount because it could not independently corroborate the banker’s information. 

The senior banker, who has direct oversight of government accounts, claimed that the military funds are "real and physically held" inside the country’s two main state-run banks, the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr, yet "remain entirely beyond the reach of civilian authorities".

“These funds are physically held in Egyptian banks and it is impossible to dispose of them or use them to repay debts," the official told MEE.

The official argued that the military apparatus could "theoretically" cover Egypt’s external and domestic debts and resolve the ongoing hard-currency crisis, but would not relinquish control of the economy. According to the official, the exact volume of military projects and details about the funds remain off limits and are subject to no oversight, known only to President Sisi and the army's top brass.

An Egyptian presidential source also cited a similar number, and confirmed the presence of army deposits in the two banks, without elaborating further. This is a significant allegation that shines a light on the opaque nature of the Egyptian army’s financial resources. 

Egyptian banks do not provide details of clients to the press. The Egyptian army does not disclose the military’s financial records, which remain beyond civilian oversight. 

In November, local banks extended 1.5 trillion Egyptian pounds to the government to cover more than $350m in loan instalments, leaving little room for further lending. Madbouly in late December told reporters at a press conference that his government was due to “reduce debts to unprecedented levels” by the end of the year.

State-affiliated media meanwhile floated the idea that a “surprise” and “bombshell” announcement would be made by the prime minister “within days” with respect to the reduction of debts. But no major announcements in this regard were made by the end of the year.

Previous interventions

The banking official told MEE that the armed forces intervened financially during a severe dollar shortage in 2022 that left imported goods stuck offshore because importers could not access the hard currency needed to pay port fees.

“At the time, the military injected $10 billion to resolve the crisis, a move the prime minister publicly framed as an emergency measure, though he only hinted at the army’s intervention without direct mention,” the senior official recalled. “Repeated proposals for the military to contribute to repaying Egypt’s mounting external debt, or even a small portion, were firmly rejected. Officials were instructed not to raise the issue again under any circumstances,” the official added.

“This stance persists even though a significant portion of Egypt’s debt burden is linked to arms purchases or investments from which the military has financially benefited,” the official explained. “Even suggestions that the armed forces should repay loans taken out in their own name were dismissed,” they explained.

A second senior official at a state bank, familiar with discussions around the debt crisis, told MEE that “the military had rejected repeated proposals to contribute, even partially, to Egypt’s external debt repayments, including offers for the armed forces to pay down loans taken in their own name.”

“Every time the idea was floated that the military could help with debt, even by covering its own obligations, it was shut down,” the second official added.

Gold revenues

The military’s grip on the Egyptian economy dates back to the mid-20th century, following the July 1952 revolution, when army officers overthrew the monarchy. Its economic role expanded significantly after the 2011 uprising, when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) assumed control following the ouster of long-time autocrat Hosni Mubarak.

The situation intensified under President Sisi, who assumed power in 2014 after leading a coup that removed Egypt’s first democratically elected civilian president, Mohamed Morsi. Since then, the military has steadily expanded its presence in construction, agriculture, and other civilian sectors, justifying its reach as a means to deliver major national projects and secure economic stability.

The military’s revenues, which are not subject to civilian oversight, have been driven by a vast network of companies and investments operating across nearly every sector of the economy, with military-owned firms dominating much of Egypt’s import and export activity and generating substantial profits.

Additional income comes from land sales, real estate projects, and large-scale infrastructure schemes, including toll gates on major highways, whose daily revenues, amounting to millions of pounds, are channeled directly into military accounts. “Almost all aspects of the country’s economy are now controlled by the military,” the first senior banking official said.

“The military carries out multi-billion-dollar imports of strategic and essential goods, which are then supplied to the government at a profit,” the official added. “The proceeds flow directly into military-controlled bank accounts that civilian authorities cannot access.”

Even when the state faces acute cash shortages, the official said, government borrowing remains entirely separate from military holdings. The armed forces are the only entity permitted to export certain goods, including rice, despite a government ban on its export. The Egyptian army is also believed to control about 50 percent of the gold industry, the official said. 

A 2014 law grants the Ministry of Defense authority to approve mineral exploitation and levy fees on all mining operations, with the overwhelming majority of extraction sites in military-controlled zones.

Together, these exports generate hundreds of millions of dollars each month, the official said, all deposited directly into military accounts. Military-owned and state-run firms benefit from tax exemptions, access to prime land, and army conscripts as cheap labour, all while operating with very limited financial transparency.

“Keep in mind that the military receives 50 percent of the output from Egyptian gold mines, with the proceeds going directly to it,” said the source. “This is important because it represents a significant contributor to the military’s dollar-denominated income.

“The value of gold revenues accruing to the armed forces is approximately $500 million annually. This is in addition to the importation of raw gold, its reprocessing, and re-export, which generates revenues amounting to billions of dollars annually. “The military is, of course, the entity responsible for deciding on or directly importing gold, whether directly or through intermediaries. In both cases, it is the beneficiary.”

In July, the IMF warned in a damning report that Egypt’s military-controlled economic model is crippling private sector growth, deterring investors, and keeping the country in a cycle of debt and underperformance.

The international lender also noted that military-owned firms continue to enjoy “preferential treatment,” including tax breaks, cheap land, and privileged access to credit and public contracts.

On December 23, the IMF said it had reached the staff-level agreement with Egypt on the fifth and sixth reviews of its Extended Fund Facility, a move that could unlock around $2.5bn in new financing, alongside a further $1.3bn under the fund’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility, pending approval by the IMF’s executive board. 

The reviews were combined to give Egyptian authorities more time to meet key programme targets under the expanded $8bn loan agreed in March 2024, which was designed to stabilise an economy hit by high inflation and foreign-currency shortages. While the IMF said recent stabilization efforts had delivered gains, it reiterated that structural reforms, particularly the divestment of state-owned assets and a reduction in the state’s role in the economy, must be accelerated.

*Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are IMF reserve units that act like a common “value measure” countries use and can be swapped into real currency when needed (SDR = $1.43 on 13 January).

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 20:35

Newsom Scrambles To Keep Billionaires In California, Vows To Kill Wealth Tax

Zero Hedge -

Newsom Scrambles To Keep Billionaires In California, Vows To Kill Wealth Tax

After a swath of billionaires publicly announced they are leaving the state of California over a proposed wealth tax, Governor Gavin Newsom went into a full blown panic - vowing to stop the proposed tax and "do what I have to do to protect the state." 

In an interview with the NY Times, Newsom said that he has been working 'relentlessly' behind the scenes to kill the proposal.

"This will be defeated — there’s no question in my mind," he said of the measure he has long opposed over concerns that it would stifle innovation in the state - as a growing list of tech CEOs have thrown their hands in the air and rage-quit the state over mounting plans to separate them from their wealth. 

The plan in question - being driven by the SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West union - would require Californians with a net worth north of $1 billion to pay a one-time tax equal to 5% of their assets, and would apply retroactively to anyone who was living in the state as of Jan 1. Affected taxpayers could spread their payments across five years beginning in 2027. 

According to the union, the tax is necessary to make up for deep cuts to health care signed into law last year by President Trump - which include reductions in Medicaid, ACA subsidies, and food subsidies. The union is demanding that California spend 90% of the new tax money on health care, with the rest devoted to food assistance and education. 

The union's Chief-of-Staff, Suzanne Jimenez told the Times; "The governor is focused on the wrong problem here," adding "The problem is not just about the preferences of 200 ultrawealthy individuals. The problem is millions will lose health care, and that’s really the problem we’re trying to solve."

The state's nonpartisan Department of Finance warned in a joint review that the tax would likely deliver tens of billions of dollars in one-time funds for the state, but it could lead to hundreds of millions or more in annual losses from billionaires leaving to avoid the tax. 

Notable billionaires who have left California or announced plans to leave include:

  • Elon Musk
  • Larry Page
  • Sergey Brin
  • Peter Thiel
  • David Sacks
  • Andy Fang (DoorDash Co-founder)

"This is what I feared, and it’s come true," Newsom told the Times. 

Even Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn and a Democratic mega-donor who funds questionable left-wing causes, called out S.E.I.U.-U.H.W's proposed billionaire tax. He wrote on X that this is a "horrendous idea" that might force tech founders and executives to flee the state.

"The proposed CA wealth tax is badly designed in so many ways that a simple social post cannot cover all of the massive flaws. One well-documented example is the horrendous idea to tax illiquid stock in the proposal. Poorly designed taxes incentivize avoidance, capital flight, and distortions that ultimately raise less revenue," Hoffman wrote on X earlier this week.

Meanwhile, business leaders across the state are raising money to oppose the wealth tax - setting the stage for a serious showdown if it reaches the ballot. 

According to Ron Lapsley, president of the California Business Roundtable, the proposal "would undermine our economy, decimate the state budget, drive investment out of the state and ultimately make everyday life more expensive for working families."

Supporters of the tax, on the other hand, have begun collecting the nearly 900,000 signatures they'll need to place the measure on the ballot. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 20:10

Tether's Role In Venezuela, Iran Highlights The Duality Of Stablecoins

Zero Hedge -

Tether's Role In Venezuela, Iran Highlights The Duality Of Stablecoins

Authored by Brian Quarmby via CoinTelegraph.com,

Recent turmoil in Venezuela and Iran has again put the spotlight on the duality of stablecoins, with the US dollar-backed assets such as Tether acting as both a savior for embattled citizens and a tool for blacklisted entities to evade sanctions. 

Both Venezuela and Iran have been catching headlines at the beginning of 2026 amid political uncertainty and civil unrest. With both facing a host of sanctions, inflation, political instability, and a cost-of-living crisis, crypto and stablecoins have become an important part of the ecosystem. 

Iran’s stablecoin entanglement

Iran has seen protests erupt across the country over the past two weeks in response to worsening economic conditions and the Iranian rial tanking to record lows against the US dollar.  

The situation has escalated from local demonstrations to widespread protests across Iran, with thousands arrested and hundreds reportedly killed. Amid this backdrop, the Iranian government also moved to cut off domestic internet access on Thursday. 

Crypto and stablecoins have become an important tool for citizens in Iran, given that the Iranian rial has been plummeting in value against the US dollar for decades.

Tron-based Tether (USDT) is reportedly the most utilized asset in the country, with citizens using the asset to hedge inflation and systemic risk.  

Broader adoption took a hit in 2025, however, with a hack on the country’s biggest exchange and a significant number of Tether blacklistings. Meanwhile, the government also set an annual limit on stablecoins in late September, allowing citizens max holdings of $10,000 and max purchases of per person $5,000. 

But stablecoins have also been used by sanctioned entities. A report from blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs on Friday indicates that since 2023, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has allegedly moved over a $1 billion worth of stablecoins via two “UK-based front companies” called Zedcex and Zedxion. 

The report claimed that despite the two firms publicly presenting themselves as individual firms, they have been quietly functioning together “as financial infrastructure for the IRGC.”  

“In practice, they operate as a single enterprise embedded within a broader Iranian sanctions evasion ecosystem, moving value across borders, currencies, and jurisdictions on behalf of one of the world’s most heavily sanctioned military organizations,” TRM Labs said. 

“A key figure in this network is Babak Zanjani, a longtime Iranian sanctions-evasion financier previously sanctioned for laundering billions in oil revenue on behalf of regime entities, including the IRGC,” TRM Labs added.  

Venezuela is closely entwined with USDT 

Similar to Iranians, Venezuelans have also adopted USDT to protect themselves against economic uncertainty, as the Venezuelan bolivar has plummeted over the past decade. 

A severe lack of trust in banks has reportedly seen USDT so widely adopted that everyday people use the asset to pay for all kinds of everyday services, opting to set up crypto wallets instead of using bank accounts. 

“It’s how you pay your landscaper and how you pay for your haircut. You can use tether basically for anything,” 71-year-old Venezuelan crypto entrepreneur Mauricio Di Bartolomeo told the Wall Street Journal on Saturday, adding: 

“Stablecoin adoption has gone so far into Venezuela that even without having regulated venues where you can buy and sell them, people still choose to go for stablecoins as opposed to using the local banks.”

The WSJ also highlighted that USDT is highly utilized by Venezuela’s state-run oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela. The firm reportedly started demanding payments directly in the stablecoin to avoid sanctions that were first imposed back in 2020. 

The company is estimated to accept 80% of all its oil revenue via Tether and frequently uses the asset to settle incoming and outgoing payments.

Tether uses blacklists to fight sanction evaders

The WSJ report adds that Tether has been fighting this by cooperating with the US government to blacklist “dozens of wallets” tied to the domestic oil trade. 

According to data compiled in a Dec. 5 report from AMLBot, Tether blacklisted around $3.3 billion worth of funds between 2023 and late 2025, with $1.75 billion of that sum being frozen Tron-based USDT. 

Over the weekend, the firm reportedly added to the figure by freezing $182 million worth of Tron-based USDT across five wallets; however, this has not been confirmed to be related to Venezuela or Iran. 

Source: @0xG00gly

Cointelegraph has reached out to Tether for comment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 19:45

South Korea Seeks Death Penalty For Ex-President Yoon's Botched Martial Law Attempt

Zero Hedge -

South Korea Seeks Death Penalty For Ex-President Yoon's Botched Martial Law Attempt

South Korea's special prosecutor has called for the death sentence for former President Yoon Suk-yeol in his rebellion trial, according to Yonhap. Closing arguments have been made in his trial in a Seoul court as he stands accused of being the "ringleader of an insurrection".

Yoon's botched attempt in December 2024 to impose martial law in South Korea lasted a mere hours but plunged the country into political turmoil and chaos. He was soon after impeached from office by parliament and was arrested pending trial.

Getty Images

Seeking the death penalty seems ultra-harsh, but it's actually in keeping with South Korean criminal code, under which leading a rebellion carries three possible penalties: capital punishment, life imprisonment with hard labor, or life imprisonment without compulsory labor.

Prosecutors allege that he ordered military and police forces to seal off the National Assembly in an effort to prevent lawmakers from entering the building where they would overturn the martial law decree.

Importantly, South Korea has not carried out an execution since 1997 - so if Yoon is eventually executed (though would likely be some kind of drawn out appeals process), it would send a chilling and strong message to current and future leaders.

In 1996, ex-President Chun Doo-hwan, who ruled from 1980 to 1988, was sentenced to death for rebellion, high treason, and corruption stemming from his role in the 1979 military coup and the violent suppression of the Gwangju uprising in 1980.

His sentence was later commuted to life imprisonment by appellate courts, including the Supreme Court. He was ultimately pardoned in 1997 by then-President Kim Young-sam as part of a 'national reconciliation' initiative.

And in the years running into the 2010s there was this litany:

Chun's successor, Roh Tae-woo, was also tried in 1996 on charges of rebellion and corruption. He initially received a 22-year prison sentence, which was later reduced to 17 and a half years. Like Chun, Roh was pardoned in 1997.

Former President Lee Myung-bak, who served from 2008 to 2013, was convicted of corruption and abuse of power and sentenced to 15 years in prison. He was later pardoned in 2022 by President Yoon Suk-yeol.

President Park Geun-hye, who held office from 2013 to 2017, was impeached, as was Yoon Suk-yeol. In 2018, she received a 24-year prison sentence on corruption charges, before being pardoned in 2021 by President Moon Jae-in.

This is why, after the South Korean political system had somewhat stabilized in the last several years compared to over two decades ago, Yoon's declaration of martial law was such a shock to Koreans, and to the West.

Amnesty International condemns it...

Prosecutors in their arguments have alleged the former president had been motivated by a "lust for power aimed at dictatorship and long-term rule". They told the court: "The greatest victims of the insurrection in this case are the people of this country," they told the court.

"There are no mitigating circumstances to be considered in sentencing, and instead a severe punishment must be imposed," the prosecutors said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 19:20

Michigan County Clerk Discovers 239 Non-Citizens Selected For Jury Duty Over 4-Month Period, With 14 Registered To Vote

Zero Hedge -

Michigan County Clerk Discovers 239 Non-Citizens Selected For Jury Duty Over 4-Month Period, With 14 Registered To Vote

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Macomb County Clerk Anthony G. Forlini announced Monday that noncitizens have been appearing in the Michigan county’s jury pool “at an alarming rate” and many of them are registered to vote. The data indicates that many noncitizens have potentially sat on juries and/or illegally voted in elections.

During a press conference in the courthouse jury room in Mount Clemens, MI, Forlini stated that an internal review of the county identified 239 noncitizens selected for jury duty over a four-month period from September 5, 2025, to January 8, 2026.

The jury pool is drawn from the Michigan Secretary of State’s driver’s license database, which does not consistently flag citizenship status, allowing noncitizens—such as lawful permanent residents with green cards—to be included.

Forlini, who is running for Secretary of State, emphasized that noncitizens are ineligible for jury duty under Michigan law.

Upon cross-checking the 239 noncitizens against the state’s Qualified Voter File (QVF), Forlini’s office found that 14 had been registered to vote at some point, with three individuals appearing to have cast ballots, including one who voted multiple times.

This was just one county in Michigan over a four month period.

“We need to bring these issues to light, we need to be able to show a light on this and say, ‘Hey, there’s a problem,’” Forlini said. “Secretary of State offices need to verify all applications against federal databases. I think this is critically important.”

He said the three noncitizens who voted have been referred to county Corporation Counsel for consideration of felony charges.

The clerk expressed concern that the current system relies on self-reporting, meaning noncitizens could serve on juries without being identified, potentially compromising the integrity of the judicial process.

He also highlighted that Michigan’s automatic voter registration process, which registers individuals when they apply for a driver’s license unless they opt out, may contribute to the issue, particularly if applicants do not understand the citizenship checkbox on the form.

“Non-citizens are coming through at an alarming rate. Our jury service summons are based on random draws from the driver’s license bank. Frequently non-citizens slip through because citizenship was not flagged in the Secretary of State database,” Forlini stated.

He called for improved data sharing between state and federal databases to enable more reliable citizenship verification.

“We must find a way for the Driver’s License database to confirm citizenship. Many times there may be a language barrier, and applicants do not understand what they are signing. If this is not addressed, we risk compromising our jury trials and our elections,”  Forlini said.

“One possibility is to take advantage of new breakthroughs in linking several databases, where one database is able flag another database for actual citizenship verification.,” he added.

The issue has drawn bipartisan attention, with former Secretary of State Candice Miller and state Representative Joe Aragona supporting calls for legislative review.

A member of the Macomb County Clerk’s office, however, stated during the press conference that Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s (D) office said “we’re not gonna touch this” when presented with evidence of non-citizens on jury pool and voter rolls.

Benson, who is running for governor of Michigan, has refused to turn over unredacted voter data to the Department of Justice (DOJ), arguing that “nobody—not the president, the DOJ or any other federal agency has the right to your sensitive, private voter information.”

Critics have pointed out that Benson has had no problem with sharing complete voter roll data with non-governmental organizations like the Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC) and Rock the Vote, suggesting inconsistencies in her privacy claims.

The Justice Department has sued 23 states and Washington, D.C., for failing to comply with its requests for voter roll data.

Harmeet Dhillon, the Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights at the U.S. Department of Justice, asserts that access to full voter registration data is essential for ensuring election integrity, preventing vote dilution, and verifying that only eligible citizens are on voter rolls.

“Why won’t they cooperate and let us help them clean up the rolls?! What else are they hiding?!” Dhillon posted on X, Monday evening.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 18:55

Google's Vietnam Bet Highlights New Era In Electronics Manufacturing

Zero Hedge -

Google's Vietnam Bet Highlights New Era In Electronics Manufacturing

Google is preparing to start building its most advanced Pixel phones in Vietnam this year, according to Nikkei Asia, a move that reflects the broader effort by U.S. tech firms to reduce their reliance on China. Apple is pursuing a similar strategy in India as both companies work toward more geographically balanced supply chains.

Sources say Google will handle the earliest and most sensitive stages of production for its Pixel, Pixel Pro and Pixel Fold models in Vietnam, while the more affordable Pixel A line will continue to be developed in China. These early production stages, known as new product introductions, involve extensive engineering work, long testing cycles and major investments in manufacturing tools. For suppliers, being selected to participate is seen as a major endorsement of their technical capabilities.

Nikkei says that although Google and Apple have spent years trying to expand manufacturing outside China, they have continued to rely on Chinese facilities for these initial development phases because few other countries have the same depth of experience and infrastructure.

Recent geopolitical and trade tensions, especially surrounding U.S. tariff policy, have added urgency to these efforts. Apple has already increased production capacity in India and Vietnam.

"The goal is to achieve functionality, compatibility and reliability suitable for mass production. If NPI fails, then it means there will be no new product for the year. But thankfully, such a thing has never happened so far," a source with an Apple supplier said.

Because of the stakes, Apple is now considering running the same development process in both India and China at the same time, despite the enormous cost.
"Take Apple for instance, NPI at a site will require the company to station some 200 to 300 engineers at the supplier's plant. The amount of investment is incredible," said another person familiar with Apple’s supply chain.

If these initiatives succeed, both companies would be much closer to building complete smartphone supply networks outside China. Google already produces large volumes of premium phones in Vietnam and carries out some technical checks there, suggesting the transition is achievable.

Still, obstacles remain. Chinese authorities have tightened controls on the export of production equipment and on the movement of specialized workers, complicating expansion efforts in countries like India and Vietnam.

"There are so many types of production equipment, testing equipment [that] are made in China and yet it is difficult to export them to another country as Beijing does not want its manufacturing sector being hollowed out ... We will just have to be patient," one supplier source said.

Lori Chang of Isaiah Research explained that most supply-chain diversification begins with basic assembly work and only later moves into deeper development functions.

"The critical significance of NPI lies in establishing product definitions, testing standards, and stable mass-production capabilities, serving as a key indicator of a supply chain's ability to operate independently," she said, adding that long-term cost concerns, geopolitics and tariffs are all pushing companies to rethink where they build their products.

Both Google and Apple declined to comment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 18:30

Schools Increasingly Consider Rewarding Teachers For Results, Not Seniority

Zero Hedge -

Schools Increasingly Consider Rewarding Teachers For Results, Not Seniority

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In several states and hundreds of local school districts, traditional teacher salary structures based on years of service are being replaced by merit and pay-for-performance models.

An instructor teaches a Spanish lesson at Franklin High School in Los Angeles on May 25, 2017. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

The success of the Dallas Independent School District’s ACE (Accelerating Campus Excellence) program, implemented in 2016 and credited with improvements in math and reading scores, prompted many districts and state education departments to revise teacher pay due to stagnant or declining academic achievement and high teacher turnover, according to state officials.

The Houston Independent School District, which the state took over due to poor student performance, will begin rating and paying teachers based on their effectiveness, not years of service, in the 2026-2027 academic year, district officials told The Epoch Times. It will be the largest school district in the nation to do this.

Houston teacher salaries will range from $64,000 to $101,000, and those with unsatisfactory ratings can be fired. The annual evaluation process also authorizes the district to reduce pay if a teacher’s performance diminishes from year to year, according to guidelines released last year.

The purpose of this change is aimed not only at improving student outcomes but also at recruiting and retaining good teachers, leveraging state grants, and driving equity across campuses, according to the guidelines.

“It’s a very strong strategy,” Heather Peske, president of the National Council on Teacher Quality, told The Epoch Times, adding that her research determined that bonuses above $5,000 are usually effective.

Texas-Sized Idea Catches On

The Dallas school district’s teacher and principal evaluation and compensation system is based on student achievement metrics, such as test scores, as well as student survey responses.

A 2025 analysis of the program by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University noted that, in addition to improved academic performance compared to other large urban school districts in Texas, teacher turnover decreased and was concentrated mainly among those who received low ratings.

“While such sweeping changes may appear blunt from a distance, a close look at the Dallas reforms shows they were carefully planned to guard against evaluation inflation, the arbitrary treatment of teachers, and strategic responses such as teaching to the test,” the report said.

The Lone Star State followed Dallas’s lead and created the Teacher Incentive Allotment program in 2019. So far, 809 school districts have participated in the program to pay high-performing teachers bonuses, and an additional 190 have submitted letters of intent to sign on in 2026, the Texas Education Agency said in an emailed response to The Epoch Times. Higher amounts are provided to those working in low-income and rural schools, and additional education reform measures passed by the legislature last year provide billions of dollars more for teacher salaries, with bonuses of up to $36,000 annually.

Arkansas launched its Merit Teacher Incentive program ahead of the 2024-2025 academic year. Teachers are eligible for up to $10,000 in annual bonuses, according to the state’s Division of Elementary and Secondary Education website.

Utah’s five-year pilot program, Excellence in Education and Leadership Supplement, launched last year. Participating districts provide $2,000 performance bonuses to teachers rated in the top 11 percent to 25 percent, $5,000 to those in the top 6 percent to 10 percent, and $10,000 to the top 5 percent, according to the legislation.

Tennessee lawmakers passed bipartisan legislation last year that allows school districts to differentiate annual teacher salaries by merit and value for certain specialties, such as chemistry or special education. Adam Lowe, the Republican state senator who sponsored the bill, said the goal is to reward and retain excellent teachers who would otherwise move to neighboring states.

“We crafted the plan intentionally to be flexible at the local level,” Lowe told The Epoch Times. “But it’ll require some bravery from school boards.”

Washington, D.C., public schools initiated a teacher evaluation process in 2009 and more recently introduced a bonus structure. Under that IMPACT program, evaluations are based on student achievement, observations of instruction, student survey responses, and teacher contributions to schools beyond their core duties.

Highly rated teachers in the nation’s capital can earn up to $25,000 in annual bonuses and $3.7 million over the course of their careers, according to the D.C. district website, which notes that through this initiative, the district has retained 93 percent of highly effective teachers and incentivizes the best to teach in high-poverty schools.

State legislators considered but declined to pass similar teacher pay-for-performance measures in Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, South Dakota, and Oregon, according to the National Council of State Legislatures.

Collective Bargaining Complications

In a typical school district that has a contract with a teachers’ union, a new teacher must perform well enough to pass a probationary period, but beyond that—if they adhere to their district’s minimum work expectations and behavior requirements—their job doesn’t hinge on student achievement, said Maxford Nelsen, research and government affairs director of the Freedom Foundation, a conservative policy center that also helps teachers and other workers opt out of union membership.

“A merit-based system where you can measure performance is the way most of the world operates,” Nelsen told The Epoch Times. “But it’s so unusual in public education that everyone views it as a crazy phenomenon.”

Texas and other states that don’t require collective bargaining agreements with public school teachers have an easier time implementing merit-based pay, Nelsen said. South Carolina prohibits collective bargaining in taxpayer-funded entities. Public sector collective bargaining requirements are more common in blue states, including California and New York, but Ohio is an exception.

Colorado, by contrast, doesn’t have a state law but allows school districts to decide on collective bargaining mandates, Nelsen said, adding that teachers’ unions still exist in states without the mandate, acting as advocacy groups instead of labor organizers.

He said union contract salary schedules are typically centered on preserving equity and rewarding seniority.

“The union interest is in the maximum number of employees and pay, and minimizing accountability on the job,” he said. “They consistently oppose any kind of pay-for-performance or merit systems. Ordinarily, a union is going to object to any unilateral change, even a positive one.”

Union Stance on Merit Pay

The American Federation of Teachers did not reply to a request for comment, but its website lists dozens of resolutions opposing merit-based pay dating back decades.

“Most public employees have insufficient control over their work and output to hold them responsible for less than superior performance when, in reality, they are working with systemic factors that are beyond their control,” a 2000 resolution reads.

The National Education Association’s (NEA) 2025 handbook states that “any system of compensation based on an evaluation of an education employee’s performance” is inappropriate.

The NEA’s most current nationwide salary listing notes that average teacher pay ranges from $55,086 a year in Mississippi to $103,379 in California.

Prioritizing Performance Over Credentials

The National Council on Teacher Quality found that 90 percent of large U.S. K–12 districts pay teachers more for having a master’s degree, and nearly one-third of the states mandate that credential for a permanent position even though there’s no proof of its effectiveness in classrooms.

American education would be better served by dropping master’s requirements or incentives and spending that money to retain good teachers, Peske said.

“Too many states and districts rely on a salary structure that rewards seniority and degrees instead of effectiveness and outcomes for kids,” she said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 18:05

Fentanyl Deaths Fall As Evidence Points To China Crackdown Trump Long Advocated

Zero Hedge -

Fentanyl Deaths Fall As Evidence Points To China Crackdown Trump Long Advocated

A sharp decline in U.S. overdose deaths appears increasingly tied to a disruption in the global fentanyl supply chain - an outcome that new research suggests may stem in part from intensified pressure on Chinese chemical suppliers.

The findings, published Thursday in Science, enter a long-running debate over what finally reversed a drug crisis that pushed annual overdose deaths above 100,000 during the Biden administration. Fatalities began falling in mid-2023 and dropped more sharply thereafter, a trend that has continued under Donald Trump, who has long-framed fentanyl trafficking as a national-security threat and used tariffs, border enforcement and overseas interdictions as leverage.

While public-health officials have pointed to billions spent on addiction treatment, naloxone distribution and domestic law enforcement, the research places renewed emphasis on a crackdown by Beijing - specifically, efforts to prevent fentanyl from being manufactured at all.

The paper concludes that the illicit fentanyl market experienced a significant supply contraction, “possibly tied to Chinese government actions,” citing falling purity in seized drugs, reduced seizure volumes and online reports of shortages. The findings align with arguments long advanced by Trump and his advisers: that pressuring China’s chemical sector was central to choking off supply.

“This demonstrates how influential China can be and how much they can help us - or hurt us,” said Keith Humphreys, a co-author of the study and a former White House drug policy adviser under President Barack Obama.

U.S. law-enforcement agencies have for years scrutinized China’s role as a key supplier of precursor chemicals used by Mexican criminal organizations to synthesize fentanyl. During Trump’s first term, Beijing agreed to classify fentanyl-related substances, though traffickers adapted by shifting to precursor chemicals instead.

Since 2023, however, Chinese authorities have shut down some chemical suppliers and tightened oversight. The Drug Enforcement Administration, in its latest annual drug intelligence report, said China-based suppliers are increasingly wary of selling internationally - evidence, the agency said, that enforcement pressure is having an effect.

According to the CDC, estimated U.S. drug deaths fell in 2024 to about 81,700, with roughly 49,200 involving synthetic opioids such as fentanyl. While 2025 data are not yet available, researchers believe the downward trend is continuing.

The timing remains contested. Formal U.S. - China cooperation was announced ahead of a November 2023 summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, months after overdose deaths had already begun to fall. Researchers acknowledge the mismatch but suggest Chinese enforcement may have begun quietly before the agreement was made public.

Some analysts remain skeptical. Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution noted that U.S.–China relations were strained at the time, making unpublicized cooperation less likely.

Still, multiple indicators point in the same direction. The study found fentanyl purity in DEA seizures declined alongside falling deaths, while online forums such as Reddit showed a surge in reports of fentanyl shortages beginning in mid-2023. Canada, which relies on similar precursor supply chains but employs very different domestic drug policies, saw a parallel decline in deaths.

“What’s really striking is that parallel across the two countries, even though the two countries have very different domestic policies,” said Jonathan P. Caulkins of Carnegie Mellon University.

China’s government says its enforcement campaign has produced “remarkable results,” citing hundreds of company closures and the removal of large volumes of chemical advertisements. The White House has credited Trump’s border enforcement, trade pressure and overseas interdictions with reducing the flow of fentanyl precursors.

Taken together, the evidence suggests that pressure on upstream chemical suppliers - an approach Trump emphasized long before it gained broader acceptance - played a larger role in the fentanyl decline than many policymakers once assumed.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 17:40

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