Individual Economists

30,000 Missing Illegal Immigrant Children Located: Tom Homan

Zero Hedge -

30,000 Missing Illegal Immigrant Children Located: Tom Homan

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 30,000 missing illegal immigrant children have been located by the Trump administration, border czar Tom Homan said in a Fox News interview clip published on Nov. 18.

Illegal immigrants await processing by U.S. Border Patrol agents outside of San Diego, Calif., on Dec. 5, 2023. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson had recently said the Trump administration’s policies were similar to restarting the Civil War. Responding to the accusation, Homan said that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) “is out there enforcing the law. We’re taking really bad guys off the street.”

He said the left wants “to attack ICE. They want to throw all these false narratives.”

“Where were they when half a million children were smuggled into this country, and they lost track of 300,000? You know what President [Donald] Trump has done? I was with HHS today. We’ve already found over 30,000 of these kids. Three weeks ago, we were at 24,000. Now, we’re over 30,000. And we’re gonna keep working till we find every one of these kids,” he said, referring to the Department of Health and Human Services.

Under Trump, America has seen the “most secure border” in the country’s history, Homan said.

According to a Nov. 5 statement from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), border encounters nationwide in October were 30,561, the lowest for the month in history and the “lowest start to a fiscal year” ever recorded by the Customs and Border Protection.

In his interview, Homan said there is now “less fentanyl killing Americans, less sex trafficking of women and children. And we’re finding children that Biden administration wasn’t even looking for. And we’re the bad guys? It’s disgusting.”

Democrats have criticized the Trump administration’s policies on handling illegal immigrant children.

On Sept. 29, a group of lawmakers led by Rep. Delia C. Ramirez (D-Ill.) wrote a letter to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem expressing “deep concern” over reports that the department was allowing illegal, unaccompanied children aged 14 and above to self-deport back to their home nations.

Such actions go against requirements of the bipartisan Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2008, under which DHS is obliged to transfer illegal immigrant children into the custody of the Office of Refugee Resettlement, and place them into proceedings before immigration courts, the lawmakers said.

“We expect that DHS’s new policy will deprive children of due process and place them in grave danger of trafficking and other harm,” said the letter.

On Oct. 3, HHS informed migrant shelters that some of the illegal, unaccompanied children aged 14 and older who are in federal custody have expressed interest in leaving the United States, according to a letter obtained by The Associated Press.

The DHS “will provide a one-time resettlement support stipend of $2,500 ... to unaccompanied alien children, 14 years of age and older, who have elected to voluntarily depart the United States as of the date of this notice and moving forward,” the letter said.

The payments are aimed at supporting “reintegration efforts following departure,” it said.

ICE spokesperson Emily Covington said in a statement that the offer would initially apply to children aged 17 years. Moreover, the payment would only be approved once an immigration judge approves the child’s voluntary departure and the individual arrives in their home nation, she said.

“Many of these UACs [unaccompanied alien children] had no choice when they were dangerously smuggled into this country,” she said.

“ICE and the Office of Refugee and Resettlement at HHS are offering a strictly voluntary option to return home to their families. This voluntary option gives UACs a choice and allows them to make an informed decision about their future.”

Meanwhile, Homan’s comments on rescuing missing illegal immigrant children follow ICE’s launch of an initiative last week aimed at protecting unaccompanied children illegally smuggled into the United States and placed in the care of unvetted sponsors during the Biden administration.

The key focus of the initiative is to conduct welfare checks on the children to ensure they live a safe life, free from any exploitation, DHS said.

The department blamed the open border policies of the Biden administration for having “empowered” human traffickers and sex traffickers. The Trump administration is taking a “sledgehammer” on such trafficking activities, it said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 10:55

Commerce Department Authorizes Export Of Advanced AI Chips To Companies In UAE, Saudi Arabia

Zero Hedge -

Commerce Department Authorizes Export Of Advanced AI Chips To Companies In UAE, Saudi Arabia

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on Nov. 19 that it had authorized exporting tens of thousands of American advanced artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor chips to two companies in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

The microchips will go to G42, a state-run AI company in Abu Dhabi in the UAE, and Humain, a Saudi government-backed AI business. Both companies have large data center projects planned in each of their respective nations.

The announcement came a day after Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrived in the United States for the first time since 2018 and is reflective of both countries’ interests in developing AI technology.

“Both companies are receiving approvals to purchase the equivalent of up to 35,000 Nvidia Blackwell chips (GB300s),” the Commerce Department said in a statement.

“These approvals will promote continued American AI dominance and global technological leadership—consistent with President Trump’s July 2025 AI Action Plan.”

A purchase of 35,000 Blackwell chips is estimated to be worth $1 billion, although prices vary.

“The approvals are conditioned on both companies meeting rigorous security and reporting requirements,” the Commerce Department said, adding that its “Bureau of Industry and Security is engaging with the companies regarding these requirements and will monitor compliance on an ongoing basis.”

The agency said that beyond its announcement on Wednesday, it will continue supporting the export of the American AI technology stack to “Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other allies and partners around the globe.”

Humain said earlier in the day that it planned to buy 600,000 Nvidia AI semiconductors.

The company plans to jointly build data centers, which will include a 500 megawatt facility, in Saudi Arabia alongside Elon Musk’s xAI.

G42, a leader in the UAE’s AI industry, is planning to construct one of the largest data centers in the world in the country with American technology.

It is receiving help from technology companies Nvidia, OpenAI, Cisco, and Oracle, alongside Japan’s SoftBank, to complete the first phase set to go online in 2026, known as Stargate UAE.

Trump Touts Saudi Investments

While meeting with the crown prince in the White House on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and Saudi Arabia had inked $270 billion in new business deals in energy, AI, finance, and aerospace.

On Nov. 19, oil giant Saudi Aramco said it had signed 17 memoranda of understanding and agreements with U.S. companies worth more than $30 billion. The projects span liquefied natural gas, financial services, advanced materials manufacturing, and procurement of materials and services, the company said.

Additionally, GE Aerospace will supply dozens of airplane engines for Boeing 787 Dreamliners owned by Saudi Arabia’s leading air carrier Saudia.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 10:20

Existing Home Sales Beat In October As Mortgage Rates Tumbled

Zero Hedge -

Existing Home Sales Beat In October As Mortgage Rates Tumbled

With mortgage rates tumbling, housing market participants have been disappointed by the lack of enthusiasm by homebuyers to apply for mortgages (though there was a decent bounce in refi activity)...

Source: Bloomberg

This morning's existing home sales data (admittedly for October) will give us a further glimpse into the reality oh home-buying vs home-selling as the gap between current mortgage rates and the average existing mortgage rates remains vast...

Source: Bloomberg

Analysts (rightfully, given the shift in rates) expected a bounce, albeit tiny (+0.5%), in existing home sales for October and were surprised to the upside with a 1.2% MoM rise...

Source: Bloomberg

Which lifted the home sales SAAR a little more off record lows (to eight month highs)...

Source: Bloomberg

This print represents signings - so when sales probably went through from August and September (before rates really started to decline). 

“Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

Is momentum about to start picking up?

The median sales price gained 2.1% from a year ago to $415,200, furthering a run of year-over-year price increases dating back to mid-2023.

Last month, the supply of previously owned homes for sale fell 0.7% to 1.52 million, still near its highest level since mid-2020, NAR data show.

Homes remained on market 34 days last month, the longest stretch for any October since 2019, Yun said on a conference call.

But to get back to pre-Covid levels, “it requires drastically larger supply,” Yun said.

“We’re not seeing that. And much more meaningful decline in mortgage rates.”

In the NAR report, sales in the South, the nation’s biggest home-selling region, increased 0.5%, marking the strongest rate since February.

Sales in the West fell 1.3%, while sales were flat in the Northeast. The Midwest led US regions with a 5.3% sales gain.

Nationwide, sellers outnumbered buyers last month by about 500,000, giving the latter some power to demand discounts and other concessions, Redfin estimated in a separate report this month.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 10:10

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Calculated Risk -

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October
Month-over-month

• 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million in October

• 0.7% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.52 million units equal to 4.4 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 1.7% increase in existing-home sales

• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in October (4.10 million SAAR) were up 1.2% from the previous month and were up 1.7% compared to the October 2024 sales rate.  
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.52 million in October from 1.53 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was up 10.9% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.4 months in October from 4.5 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

EU's Ukraine Funding Scheme Will Trigger Lawsuits, Collapse Of Euro & Be On Grandchildren's Shoulders: Orban

Zero Hedge -

EU's Ukraine Funding Scheme Will Trigger Lawsuits, Collapse Of Euro & Be On Grandchildren's Shoulders: Orban

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has issued a new warning that the European Commission (EC)-proposed new loan amount to Ukraine of 135 billion euros will end up being paid for by the grandchildren of EU country populations.

"An astronomical sum that does not exist today. It simply does not exist," he began by saying. "The Brussels 'magic trick' would again be a joint European loan, a step that would guarantee that even our grandchildren would have to pay for the costs of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict," he said.

AFP/Getty Images

This was his further response to a letter recently issued to EC President Ursula von der Leyen, seeking to desperately raise more funds for Kiev in order for it to close a some $150 billion budget gap.

"It will now be key to rapidly reach a clear commitment on how to ensure that the necessary funding for Ukraine will be agreed at the next European Council meeting in December," she wrote. 

But Orban chaffed and pointed out that this whopping amount is at least 65% of the annual volume of the Hungarian economy and almost 75% of the annual EU budget, an "absurd" ask. He quipped:

"This is more than impossible. This is absolutely ridiculous. Hungary's response will follow immediately," the Hungarian Prime Minister stressed.

He has also warned that if Brussels decides to use frozen Russian assets, it will trigger lawsuits and potentially the collapse of the Euro.

"Turning to frozen Russian assets. A convenient solution, but the consequences are unpredictable. Lengthy legal proceedings, numerous lawsuits, and the collapse of the euro. This is what awaits us if we choose this path," Orban wrote on social media.

We earlier featured some of his initial reaction, as previously this week he flatly rejected the call for sending more support to Ukraine: 

"I received a letter today from President von der Leyen. She writes that Ukraine’s financing gap is significant and asks member states to send more money," he wrote on X. "It’s astonishing."

"At a time when it has become clear that a war mafia is siphoning off European taxpayers’ money, instead of demanding real oversight or suspending payments, the Commission President suggests we send even more."

Given Ukraine's corruption, and there's a raging scandal currently in the headlines which has resulted in the dismissal of several top officials and ministers, Orban likened the scheme to giving a drunk person more vodka. 

But he vowed that Hungary has not lost its common sense and described, "This whole matter is a bit like trying to help an alcoholic by sending them another crate of vodka." Budapest won't go along with it.

* * * 

More of PM Orban's scathing critique on Thursday:

The [EC] President has one problem: she doesn't have this money. What she does have are 3 proposals on the table:

1. That the member states should chip in. Willingly and cheerfully, from their own budgets. As if they had nothing better to do.

2. A well known Brusselian "magic trick": joint borrowing. There's no money for the war today, so our grandchildren will pay the bill. Absurd.

3. A proposal to seize the frozen Russian assets. A convenient solution, but its consequences are impossible to foresee. Lengthy legal wrangling, a flood of lawsuits and the collapse of the euro. This is what awaits us if we choose this path.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 09:20

Democratic Lawmakers Call On Military Members, Intelligence Community To "Refuse Illegal Orders"

Zero Hedge -

Democratic Lawmakers Call On Military Members, Intelligence Community To "Refuse Illegal Orders"

Authored by Jackson Richman & Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

Six Democratic lawmakers have called on members of the military and the intelligence community to disobey “illegal orders” from the top command.

A video was released on X on Nov. 18 featuring Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-N.H.), Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.), and Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.). Each of these lawmakers served in the military or the intelligence community.

“We want to speak directly to members of the military—and the Intelligence Community—who take risks each day to keep Americans safe,” said Kelly, Slotkin, Crow, and Deluzio, one by one, each speaking different sections of the sentence in the video.

Slotkin said service members are “under enormous stress and pressure right now” amid national disputes over the limits of executive authority and military operations.

Kelly, Slotkin, and Crow accused the Trump administration of “pitting our uniformed military and Intelligence Community professionals against American citizens.”

The Democratic lawmakers didn’t specify in their short video any specific orders from the administration they are targeting. Meanwhile, a handful of issues related to military and intelligence operations have flared up recently, including the Trump administration’s National Guard deployment to several major cities in recent months, including Los Angeles, Chicago, and Portland, Oregon.

Some local officials and Democratic governors opposed these deployments, which the administration said were intended to reduce crime and protect federal agents and property during federal law enforcement operations. The use of the National Guard for protection of federal property and other interests is permitted under federal statutes. Other functions, such as law enforcement, are more restricted.

The administration’s airstrikes on alleged drug boats—now numbering more than 20 strikes that have killed more than 80 alleged traffickers—have also come under scrutiny.

Critics, including Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), have argued that these strikes constitute the military carrying out law enforcement functions and are contrary to American legal traditions and norms. In law enforcement matters, officials must follow the legal process, including obtaining warrants on suspects and receiving permission to make arrests or use lethal force.

The administration has stated that drug traffickers are foreign terrorists and that the airstrikes constitute self-defense amid an opioid crisis in America. The Department of Justice has said military service members who take part in the strikes will not be subject to prosecution.

Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), who has received classified briefings on the strikes, has called for the administration to share more information with the public on the strikes. Rogers said that the evidence presented to him showed that the strikes are “completely legal.”

“They should be more transparent about it, in my view,” he said of administration officials.

In the video, Kelly and Goodlander noted that members of the military and the intelligence community swore an oath to defend the Constitution.

“The threats to our Constitution aren’t just coming from abroad—but from right here at home,” Deluzio, then Crow said.

“Our laws are clear,” said Kelly, who added with Slotkin, “You can refuse illegal orders.”

“You must refuse illegal orders,” Deluzio continued.

“No one has to carry out orders that violate the law—or our Constitution,” said Slotkin, then Houlahan.

Under U.S. military law, members of the military are obligated to refuse “manifestly unlawful” orders, including orders to commit a crime or violate the Constitution. Federal law prohibits members of the intelligence community from taking part in unlawful or unconstitutional activities, even when ordered to do so by superiors.

The Trump administration criticized the video.

“Stage 4 [Trump Derangement Syndrome],” posted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

White House Homeland Security adviser Stephen Miller in a post on X: “Democrat lawmakers are now openly calling for insurrection.”

Speaking later on Fox News, Miller described the video as a “rebellion” by Democrats.

“It is insurrection, plainly, directly, without question,” Miller said.

“It’s a general call for rebellion from the CIA and the armed services of the United States by Democrat lawmakers, saying that you have not only the right, but the duty and the obligation to defy orders of the commander-in-chief that those who carry weapons in America’s name should defy their chain of command and engage in open acts of insurrection.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for comment on the video and did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 09:00

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000

Calculated Risk -

The DOL reported:
In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's level. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's average.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 224,250.
The graph includes all the missing weeks while the government was shutdown.

Jobs Shocker: Sept Payrolls Print Above All Forecasts, But Unemployment Rate Hits 4 Year High

Zero Hedge -

Jobs Shocker: Sept Payrolls Print Above All Forecasts, But Unemployment Rate Hits 4 Year High

In our preview of today's jobs report, we showed that the range of estimates is (extremely) broad, from 105K on the upper end, to just -20K on the lower.

We also said that if today's jobs number is atrocious, the Fed would once again be viewed as being behind the curve. So perhaps working in conjunction with the newly returned BLS employees, the outgoing Fed chair snuck in a pointer or two, and in an attempt to avert allegations of blowing up the economy, moments ago the BLS reported that the (delayed) September number came in a stronger than all estimates 119k jobs...

... a 5 sigma beat to the median estimate...

... which however followed yet another downward revision, as the total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000 (so much for Goldman's thesis August would be replaced sharply higher).

With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported, and continues the trend of relentless downward revisions.

Manufacturing jobs fell for the sixth straight month...

After August's surge in part-time jobs (decline in full-time), September flipped the script with a surge in full-time jobs as part-tiume jobs tumbled...

BUT... The US unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% in September - its highest in four years...

Led by Black unemployment...

The participation rate rose for the second month in a row...

But earnings growth slowed in September...

Rate-cut odds are higher following the jump in the unemployment rate...

Now, what will FedSpeak do now?

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 08:53

Continuing Jobless Claims Highest In 4 Years But...

Zero Hedge -

Continuing Jobless Claims Highest In 4 Years But...

Finally, the spice is flowing again...

Initial jobless claims dropped back near 2025 lows (220k, below expected)...

However, while initial claims remain solid, continuing jobless claims drifted higher to 1.974 million Americans - the highest level since October 2021...

Likely thanks to the shutdown, we note that initial jobless claims for the 'Deep Tristate' fell significantly...

Now that Washington is back to work, we suspect those workers will be getting more pink slips once again.

Finally, it appears jobless claims data is shrugging off the layoff announcements that have surged in recent weeks...

Who do you believe?

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 08:44

September Employment Report: 119 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk -

From the BLS: Employment Situation
Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, changed little in September. Employment continued to trend up in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added
Employment per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 119 thousand in September.  Private payrolls increased by 97 thousand, and public payrolls increased 22 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 35 thousand).

Payrolls for July and August were revised down by 33 thousand, combined.  The economy lost jobs in both June and August.
Year-over-year change employment The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 1.31 million jobs.  
Year-over-year employment growth is slowing sharply.



The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rate The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.4% in September, from 62.3% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was increased to 59.7% from 59.6% in August (blue line).
I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.



unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was increased to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August.

This was above consensus expectations, however, July and August payrolls were revised down by 33,000 combined.  
Overall another weak report.
I'll have more later ...

Futures Jump After Nvidia's Blowout Earnings Calm Nerves; All Eyes On Delayed Payrolls

Zero Hedge -

Futures Jump After Nvidia's Blowout Earnings Calm Nerves; All Eyes On Delayed Payrolls

The AI euphoria, which defined markets for much of 2025 but went AWOL a month ago, is back if only for the time being as Nvidia’s blowout earnings and strong forecast, coupled with cautious positioning before the results, is spurring a relief rally. The results won’t erase all the concerns about AI circularity, but Jensen Huang’s view of the AI economy is taking precedence today. Focus later will turn back to macro data (or lack of it) and the Fed. Until then, US equity futures are sharply higher following the biggest wall of worry into year-end: as of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 1.3%, and Nasdaq futures surge 1.6%. If those gains hold, both gauges will move back above their key 50-day moving averages. In the premarket, NVDA (+5%) leading all stocks higher and Mag7, Semis, and AI Themes including recent laggards all rallying (ORCL +3%, CRWV +8%). Cyclicals are rallying ex-Materials and Defensives (ex-HC) poised to have a down day. Bond yields are mixed, from +1 to -1bp and the USD indicated a touch higher. Commodities are mixed with Ags rallying, WTI above $60, and Metals coming for sale. The macro data focus today is on the delayed release of the Sept payrolls (the only jobs data until the Dec 10 FOMC meeting), as well as new jobless data (our NFP preview is here). JPM's "TL/DR" is that the investment hypothesis remains intact and that a Fed cut is unnecessary to making new ATHs.

In premarket trading, Nvidia (NVDA) gains 4.8%, outperforming fellow Magnificent Seven stocks after delivering a strong revenue forecast. All other Mag 7s are also green (Tesla +2%, Alphabet +1.9%, Amazon +1.4%, Meta Platforms +1.3%, Microsoft +1%, Apple +0.4%). 

  • AI-related stocks rally after Nvidia’s quarterly update eased concerns that had spread across the sector.
  • Atkore (ATKR) falls 11% after the maker of electrical products gave a forecast for 2026 adjusted earnings per share with a midpoint below analysts’ expectations. The company also reported gross margin and adjusted EPS below expectations in the fourth quarter.
  • Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI) drops 13% after cutting its full-year outlook, saying weak consumer sentiment is hurting shoppers’ willingness to spend and the expected impact of tariffs imposed by the US and other countries.
  • NetEase US-listed shares (NTES) decline 3% after the Chinese internet giant reported adjusted net income from continuing operations per ADS for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • PACS Group (PACS) soars 40% after the nursing home operator said its restatements and audit committee investigation are now complete. The company also posted third-quarter revenue that grew 31% from the year-ago period.
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) falls 3.6% after the network security software company reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook. It also announced that it is acquiring Chronosphere Inc. for $3.35 billion.
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) rises 3.2% after the FDA approved EYLEA HD, an injectable drug to treat patients with macular edema following retinal vein occlusion.
  • Walmart (WMT) slips 1% even though the retailer increased its sales outlook for the full year. The CFO said consumer spending has been largely consistent, though there’s “some slight moderation” within lower-income households. Middle- and higher-income shoppers aren’t pulling back.
  • ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) rises 2% after the company narrowed its adjusted Ebitda forecast for the full year.

In corporate news, a Chinese investment firm bought a block of shares in TikTok parent ByteDance at a valuation of $480 billion, far above recent levels. Netflix is said to have told the management of Warner Bros. Discovery that it will keep releasing the studio’s films in theaters if it’s successful in buying the company. Bayer won US approval for its new medicine Hyrnuo to treat a common form of lung cancer.

Bulls have Nvidia to thank for today's solid green screens. Nvidia surged more than 4% in premarket trading, spurring gains in other AI shares including AMD and Broadcom. Strong results from the AI bellwether helped restore a sense of calm after weeks of heavy selling in technology stocks. Wall Street had grown uneasy about stretched valuations and the vast sums being spent on AI infrastructure after the sector powered a nearly 40% rally in the S&P 500 since its April low.

In his discussion of earnings, Nvidia’s CEO addressed the debate over an AI bubble, saying that “we see something very different.” Noted short seller, Muddy Waters’ Carson Block, meanwhile, warned that betting against the biggest US tech names won’t end well, while “AI-adjacent companies, AI pretenders” may be the place to be short, although that could still be a dangerous trade.

Following a retreat of as much as 10% since the start of the month, Nvidia’s latest results rewarded shareholders’ faith and drew a warning from short-seller Carson Block, who said that “you’re not going to be in business very long” betting against the biggest technology stock. 

“Nothing stands in the way of a Christmas rally now,” said Amundi SA Chief Investment Officer Vincent Mortier. “Everything is lining up for the cycle to continue in the short term.”

Outside of tech, things aren’t quite so cheerful. The much-delayed September payrolls report is due to be published later, and it’ll be the only official major jobs data published before Fed policymakers meet in December. Odds of a rate cut have steadily slipped in recent weeks, with the market now seeing about a 25% probability of a reduction.
Cracks in the bullish narrative are appearing elsewhere. A portfolio of private credit loans managed by BlackRock has performed so poorly that the money manager has waived some management fees. Bitcoin’s latest rout has led to a wipeout of more than $1 trillion across the digital‑asset world. And Amundi CIO Vincent Mortier warned of the possibility of “too much hype” around Nvidia.

With the first of the week’s key events spurring a comeback for equities, attention is now turning to the path for interest rates as markets await the release of the September jobs report. The figures will be the only major labor market data published before the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting. Forecasts are largely unchanged from those held before the original release date and may be stale. September payrolls are expected to rise by 51,000, up from Augustʼs 22,000, with a huge gap in estimates, ranging from a decline of 20,000 to a gain of 105,000 (Goldman is above consensus (80K), while JPM is just below the consensus print (50K) - our preview is here). 

"I’d wager that the ‘Goldilocks’ zone for the payrolls print is probably 30,000 to 70,000, which would keep a cut on the cards, but also point to the labor market remaining resilient enough not to trigger undue concern,” according to Pepperstone.

“The September jobs data is clearly dated,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “They would thus need to show a substantial surprise to the upside or the downside. A significant downside surprise would likely have more of an impact on markets.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it won’t publish an October jobs report, but will incorporate those payroll figures in the November data due after the Fed’s final meeting of the year. Meanwhile, minutes from the Fed’s October meeting showed many officials considered it appropriate to keep rates steady for the remainder of 2025. As a result, traders have steadily dialed back bets on a December rate cut amid hawkish remarks from policymakers and a lack of data, with money markets now pricing in about a 25% chance of easing

A rally into year-end is in sight if the market holds on to its early gains through the rest of the day, said Guy Miller, chief strategist at Zurich Insurance Group. “I want to see it closing today on strength,” Miller said. “That will be indicative of investors buying the dip and on board with the tech story. Where we close today will be telling whether the risk-on trade is back or not.”

European stocks join the global equity rally and are set to snap a five-day losing streak after Nvidia’s surprisingly strong revenue forecast. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.9% with technology, industrial and bank shares leading gains. Here are the biggest movers Thursday: 

  • European defense stocks gain on Thursday after JPMorgan analysts said Wednesday’s steep declines were a “significant over-reaction” and provide a “compelling entry point into the sector.”
  • BNP Paribas shares advance 6%, the best performer on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after the French lender announced a new €1.15 billion buyback and plans to reach a target for capital strength early
  • Games Workshop shares rise as much as 11%, after the maker of the Warhammer tabletop game released a 1H trading update that Jefferies described as “outstanding”
  • Halma climbs as much as 11%, hitting a record high, after increasing guidance for the full year and delivering first-half results above expectations
  • Wartsila gains as much as 8.9%, after the company announced it will deliver 27 engines to provide continuous primary power for a new data center under construction in the US
  • Elior surge as much as 20%, the biggest rise since May 2024, after the French catering and food services company said it would reinstate dividend payments
  • Allegro drops as much as 6.3% as weaker sales in November clouded 3Q earnings beat. Poland’s biggest ecommerce platform trimmed its gross merchandise value guidance for the full year, triggering negative market reaction
  • Renk shares fall as much as 8.4% to the lowest since May as the German defense name hosts an investor day. Jefferies points out that the 2027 and 2028 outlooks might be a bit underwhelming
  • JD Sports shares drop as much as 2.4% this morning after the apparel retailer warned annual profit before tax and adjusting items will be at the lower end of market expectations
  • Soitec slumps as much as 14%, dropping to the lowest since January 2017, after the French chip material company revealed guidance for third-quarter revenue growth which is significantly below expectations

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed the most in three weeks, boosted by gains in technology shares after a stellar earnings forecast from Nvidia Corp. alleviated fears of an artificial intelligence spending bubble. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.7%, the biggest jump since Oct. 27. Most markets in the region were in the green, with tech-heavy benchmarks in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea leading gains. India’s NSE Nifty 50 Index is set for a new record high. Mainland Chinese shares closed lower, though property stocks got a lift after policymakers are said to be considering new measures to turn around the struggling market.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The pound and kiwi are in top spots among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.2% each. The yen pared an earlier fall.

In rates, treasuries are steady after Thursday’s fall, with US 10-year yields flat at 4.14%. Two-year borrowing costs add 1 bp to 3.60%. Bunds and gilts also tread water. Yields on Japan’s five- and 10-year government bonds rose to their highest levels since 2008, while 20 and 40-year yields soared to record highs, as markets brace for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package, which is set to be unveiled on Friday. Treasury sells $19 billion of 10-year TIPS in a reopening at 1pm; 20-year new-issue auction drew solid demand Wednesday. Focal points of Thursday’s session include the delayed release of September employment data and several speeches by Fed officials. 

In commodities, spot gold falls $15 to around $4,063/oz. Oil prices extend gains after the Kremlin said they are not holding consultations with the US about ending the war in Ukraine. WTI January crude futures rise 0.8% to $59.75 a barrel. Bitcoin is up 1.5% near $92,000. 

The US economic calendar also includes weekly jobless claims, November Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), October existing home sales (10am) and November Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:45am), Barr (9:30am), Cook (11am), Goolsbee (12:40pm and 6pm), Miran (6:15pm) and Paulson (6:45pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +1.3%,
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +1.6%,
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.8%,
  • DAX +0.9%,
  • CAC 40 +0.8%
  • 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.13%
  • VIX -2.7 points at 20.99
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1225.22,
  • euro little changed at $1.1527
  • WTI crude +1% at $60.04/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Trump posted that he signed the bill approving the release of the Epstein files: Truth Social.
  • Trump is set to meet New York City Mayor Mamdani on Friday at the Oval Office: Truth Social.
  • Trump is reportedly considering an executive order to pre-empt state AI laws: Reuters
  • Trump plans to roll out a “Genesis Mission” to boost US AI development, giving it the same importance as the Manhattan Project or the space race. BBG
  • President Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income households, funded by revenue from his tariffs. GOP lawmakers are lukewarm at best about approving any $2,000 checks, calling into question whether Trump can secure the congressional approval needed to get the cash to Americans as he has promised. WSJ
  • The US approved the export of tens of thousands of advanced AI chips to Saudi Arabia’s Humain and the UAE’s G42. BBG
  • Canada and the US still have a chance to reach an agreement to reduce tariffs despite last month’s diplomatic blowup, Trump’s envoy in Ottawa said. BBG
  • China is considering new measures to support its struggling property market, including providing mortgage subsidies for new homebuyers and raising income tax rebates for mortgage borrowers. The plan aims to stabilize the housing market, which has seen a slump in sales and prices, and to prevent a further weakening of the sector from threatening the country's financial system. BBG
  • Japan's government is in the final stages of assembling a stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen ($135.38 billion) to help households cope with persistent inflation, a draft seen by Reuters showed, in what would be the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. RTRS
  • BOJ board member Junko Koeda signaled a rate hike is possible as soon as December. Separately, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary warned that the yen is experiencing sudden and one-sided moves. BBG
  • The U.S. has signaled to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that Ukraine must accept a U.S.-drafted framework to end the war with Russia that proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons, two people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. RTRS
  • Cash flows and balance sheet capacity are unlikely to constrain large public AI hyperscaler capex spending in 2026, according to Goldman. The hyperscalers spent $107 billion in capex in 3Q 2025, including AI and non-AI expenditures, representing a year/year growth rate of 76%. Analysts expect this growth rate will slow sharply to 53% in 4Q 2025 and further to 25% by the end of 2026. However, analysts have been consistently too conservative with their estimates during the past two years. The magnitude of spending in historical technology investment cycles suggests upside to spending estimates today. The recently demonstrated willingness of the large public hyperscalers to employ the strength of their balance sheets in funding capex also indicates upside to consensus estimates: GS
  • UBS executive says US inflation is quite sticky, upcoming quarters is probably going to be a little bit challenging from a macro standpoint.
  • BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 15th Nov) +1.5% (prev. +4.2%, Oct avg. +2.4%); notes that "as we approach the holiday seasons, spending per household on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023 and 2024 levels".

NVDA Commentary Highlights:

  • CEO on AI bubble: CEO Huang says there has been a lot of talk about an AI bubble but "we see something different."
  • CFO on China: Will continue to cooperate on China. Sizeable purchase orders for H20 AI chip never materialised in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China. Not expecting data-centre-compute revenue from China in Q4.
  • CEO Comments: NVIDIA has done a really good job in terms of planning and supply chains. NVIDIA will continue to do stock buybacks. More successful this year vs last year.
  • CFO Comments: Still in early innings. Reiterates visibility into USD 500bn Blackwell and Rubin revenue. Cloud services are sold out. Demand continues to exceed expectations.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US lawmakers are reportedly considering a new bill to codify China AI chip export curbs, according to Bloomberg sources; the White House has reportedly asked Congress to reject the bill curbing NVIDIA (NVDA) exports.
  • US Commerce Department plans to approve export of 70,000 advanced AI chips to UAE and Saudi Arabia, according to WSJ sources; Export deal includes approval for NVIDIA's (NVDA) GB300 or equivalent chips.
  • China’s October rare earth magnet exports to the US rose 56.1% from September, according to customs data.
  • European Commission will, on Monday, present a list of sectors it wishes to be exempt from US tariffs to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and USTR Greer, via Politico citing sources; includes medical devices, wines, spirits, beers & pasta

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks surged across the board, buoyed by a strong performance in the tech sector following NVIDIA’s solid earnings and guidance, while CEO Huang dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, stating, “We see something different.” ASX 200 held near highs, supported by strength in tech and gold sectors. Nikkei 225 surged at the open and reclaimed 50,000+ levels as NVIDIA boosted tech stocks, though it pulled back from highs amid ongoing US-China tensions and fiscal concerns and as JGB yields continued climbing. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened firmer but lagged peers, with China struggling to capitalise on NVIDIA’s performance amid the US/China AI race. Some modest upside was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus with mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources. Meanwhile, the PBoC held LPRs steady as expected.

Top Asian News

  • China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies, according to Bloomberg sources.
  • Japan's economic stimulus package is expected to be around JPY 21.3tln, according to NHK. The Japanese government is in the final stages of compiling its economic stimulus package worth JPY 21.3tln, according to a draft seen by Reuters; the package will total JPY 42.8tln, including private-sector investments.
  • BoJ Board Member Koeda said the BoJ is ready to step into market via increase in bond buying and emergency market operations when long-term yields make rapid moves; want to closely watch how FX volatility could affect prices; no comment on specific long-term rate level; should be set by markets reflecting fundamentals
  • BoJ Board Member Koeda said the bank must normalise interest rates to avoid causing distortion in the future, adding that she believes underlying inflation is about 2%. She reinforced a data-dependent approach.
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the government is watching market moves, including the bond market, closely and expressed concern about recent sharp, one-sided FX moves. He emphasised that the FX market needs to move stably, reflecting fundamentals, and that the government is watching FX with a high sense of urgency.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said she won’t comment directly on JGB yield levels, which are determined by various factors, and reaffirmed with BoJ Governor Ueda yesterday that authorities will watch market moves with a strong sense of urgency.
  • RBA's Hunter said monthly inflation data can be volatile and that the bank will not react to just one month of data; he also noted that the response in the housing market to rate cuts has been a little stronger than expected.
  • Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Nov) 3.00% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 3.00%); 5Y 3.50% vs. Exp. 3.50% (Prev. 3.50%)
  • BoJ Governor Ueda is to set to attend a lower house Finance Committee on Friday 21st November, via Reuters citing parliamentary sources.
  • Chinese Commerce Ministry on Japanese Trade ties says if Japan insists on going down the wrong path then China will take the necessary measures. Says Japan's PM Takaichi remarks have a great impact on bilateral trade cooperation. Tokyo should create favourable environment for economic trade cooperation.
  • BoJ Ueda to appear at a Financial Times event on the December 9th.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) opened entirely in the green, with sentiment boosted following strong earnings from NVIDIA. Price action today has been fairly sideways at elevated levels as markets await US NFP later. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. It is no surprise that Tech is at the top of the pile, in tandem with pre-market gains in NVIDIA (+5%). The likes of ASML (+1.4%) and Infineon (+1.5%) both move higher.

Top European News

  • ECB's Makhlouf says he is comfortable with where policy is and needs further evidence to change his view; outcomes in line with projections, and new projections are unlikely to change. Should be very cautious about reacting to small deviations in projections. Risks around inflation outlook are balanced. Completely relaxed about undershooting next year, inflation will come back.

FX

  • DXY is a little firmer today and currently trading towards the upper end of a 100.10 to 100.32 range. From a technical standpoint, the index topped its 200 DMA at 99.91 in the prior session and has continued to rise to a multi-month high – levels not seen since late-May’25. Upside today facilitated by a hawkish leaning FOMC Minutes, and the BLS announcing that the October and November NFP reports will be till December 16th - notably leaving the Fed with only today's (Sept) NFP report. As it stands money markets currently price in a near-25% chance of a cut at the December meeting.
  • EUR is a little weaker vs the Dollar, and as has been the case in recent weeks, a real lack of European specific data to help guide the Single-Currency in any direction. As such, much of the price action has been dictated by the Dollar side of the pair, and will ultimately await the NFP report today. Worth highlighting German Producer Prices data which printed more-or-less in-line, and ultimately had limited impact on the pair.
  • USD/JPY has continued its ascent beyond the 157.00 mark in overnight trade, to top the 157.50 mark and make a fresh session high of 157.77. Worth noting that the pair has been subject to moves on both sides, with USD gaining amidst a hawkish repricing into the December meeting, whilst JPY has had domestic factors to digest. Overnight, Katayama was back on the wires where she once again attempted some verbal intervention, but to no effect – the pair continued to edge higher. As the European morning progressed, the pair has cooled from best levels, to currently trade at 157.20, but still very much at the upper end of Wednesday’s confines.
  • A quiet session for the GBP this morning, with little fresh newsflow from a Budget perspective. Cable currently resides in a 1.3039 to 1.3076 range. The GBP has been subject to some selling pressure over the course of the past month, with losses totalling roughly 3% - this comes amidst Budget related jitters as Chancellor Reeves chops and changes her thoughts on the best approach. Moreover, the recent political uncertainty within the Labour party has added to the risk premium. Scheduled speakers today include Dhingra and Mann.
  • Antipodeans trade mixed, with the Kiwi benefiting from the risk-tone whilst the Aussie is flat and essentially conforms to the subdued risk tone in China overnight, hit by their status in the AI race post-NVIDIA; moreover, base metals are generally softer across the board. For China specifically, no major move was seen on reports that China is reportedly mulling new property stimulus. AUD/USD trades within a 0.6472 to 0.6491 range whilst NZD/USD trades in a 0.5596 to 0.5614 confine.

Fixed Income

  • JGBs are pressured overnight as Japanese yields continue to climb. JGBs themselves to a 134.56 trough, marking a new contract low. As such, the 10yr yield has risen to a 1.85% peak, taking us back to levels from early 2008. Action that has been driven by ongoing speculation and reporting around the upcoming stimulus. The latest reporting suggests an outlay of around JPY 17tln, far exceeding the JPY 13.9tln figure from the last package. Updates that have pressured JGBs given an expectation for it to necessitate greater issuance than the JPY 6.7tln figure outlined last time.
  • USTs are under pressure, but only modestly so. Downside comes given the upbeat risk tone after NVIDIA numbers (see Equities). Additionally, the latest FOMC minutes showed a somewhat divided board but the undertones were hawkish. Potentially more pertinently, the BLS has confirmed the October payrolls release will not print in full (no unemployment rate) while the November series has been delayed until after the December meeting. Factors that are both hawkish/bearish. As the lack of data visibility gives the Fed theoretical scope to wait-and-see how the economy is faring before easing further; reminder, in October, Powell remarked, “when there is fog, you could slow down”. Given all this, USTs are in the red and down to a 112-18 base. Support comes into play at 112-17 from Tuesday before Monday’s 112-15+ WTD low.
  • Bunds are softer, following the risk tone lower and posting downside of just under 20 ticks at most. Holding around a 128.48 low, if the move continues, we look to 128.25 from early October before the figure and then touted support at 127.88. Specifics for the bloc are somewhat light thus far. No move to ECB’s Makhlouf this morning, remarks that chimed with the market view that the ECB is at a terminal. Interestingly, Makhlouf said he does not think the new projections are likely to change; a remark in reference to the December forecast round which will include the first look at 2028, a period in focus and of particular note for those looking for further ECB easing. Supply from Spain passed without incident, whilst France was a little more mixed. Overall though, no move seen and OATs trade in-line with Bunds as we approach the tail-end of the week where attention returns back to French budget deliberations.
  • Gilts are marginally outperforming after the underperformance on Wednesday. Underperformance that was seemingly due to concerns around the stability of Labour leadership amid mounting challenges to PM Starmer in the background. A challenge that would be a knock to the relatively, market-favourable pairing of Starmer and Reeves. This morning, Gilts are holding in the green by a handful of ticks. Initially opened lower acknowledging the bearish bias seen in peers but then swiftly pared to post gains of 15 ticks at best. Overall though, the benchmark has settled just above the unchanged mark in a 91.51-85 band. Scheduled speakers today include Dhingra and Mann.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks have traded subdued to start the European session despite the positive risk tone following NVIDIA earnings and further reporting about the proposed 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine. After grinding higher throughout Wednesday's US session, WTI and Brent pulled back to a trough of USD 59.27/bbl and USD 63.52/bbl respectively before extending to session highs of USD 59.80/bbl and USD 64.08/bbl as European traders stepped into the market. Despite the muted trade, benchmarks currently remain near session highs as the European session continues. Some further upside seen following comments via Russia's Kremlin which said that consultations with the US on peace are not taking place, but contacts are.
  • Spot XAU sold off at the start of the APAC session and has continued to drift lower following the hawkish FOMC minutes and the bid seen across global equities as NVIDIA posted positive earnings. After a slight bid to a peak of USD 4110/oz at the start of APAC trade, XAU sold off to a trough of USD 4042/oz before consolidating in a USD 4042-4085/oz band. As the European session got underway, the yellow metal briefly extended to a new session low of USD 4039/oz before bouncing back into the earlier band.
  • Base metals have traded rangebound to start the European session despite the positive global risk tone, outside of China, following NVIDIA earnings. 3M LME Copper started positive and bid higher to a peak of USD 10.83k/t at the start of APAC trade. However, the red metal fell lower and as the European session got underway, copper extended losses to a trough of USD 10.72k/t. Thus far, 3M LME Copper has managed to bounce off worst levels and is currently trading at USD 10.80k/t.
  • Offshore Alliance Union applied to the Australian tribunal for permission to go on strike at Woodside’s (WDS AT) Pluto 2 LNG project.

Geopolitics

  • Russia said it is ready for dialogue with the United States on nuclear arms reduction, via Al Arabiya.
  • US President Trump reportedly quietly approved a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine earlier this week, according to NBC.
  • Russia's Kremlin says consultations or negotiations with the US on peace in Ukraine are not talking place but contacts are, adds that there is nothing to say on if President Putin has been briefed on the peace plan.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Nov 15 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 227k
  • 8:30 am: Nov 8 Continuing Claims, est. 1950k
  • 8:30 am: Sep Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 51k, prior 22k
  • 8:30 am: Sep Change in Private Payrolls, est. 65k, prior 38k
  • 8:30 am: Sep Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -7k, prior -12k
  • 8:30 am: Sep Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
  • 8:30 am: Sep Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 am: Sep Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%
  • 8:30 am: Nov Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 1, prior -12.8
  • 10:00 am: Oct Existing Home Sales, est. 4.08m, prior 4.06m
  • 10:00 am: Oct Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 0.49%, prior 1.5%

Central Bank speakers

  • 8:45 am: Fed’s Hammack Delivers Opening Remarks
  • 9:30 am: Fed’s Barr in Discussion on Artificial Intelligence
  • 11:00 am: Fed’s Cook Speaks on Financial Stability at Georgetown Univers
  • 12:40 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Discussion in Indianapolis
  • 6:00 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on PBS NewsHour
  • 6:15 pm: Fed’s Miran Speaks at American Investment Council
  • 6:45 pm: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In a market baying desperately for information, today's US payrolls follows rapidly on the back of Nvidia's earnings last night and the start of the return to business as usual for US data. It's fair to say that Nvidia's results have completely changed the market mood and pushed out any bubble fears for another day. The chipmaker delivered a decent revenue beat ($57.0bn vs $55.2bn est.) and gave strong revenue guidance for the current quarter ($65bn vs $61.9bn est.). The company’s CFO suggested that Nvidia could even exceed its recent target of $500bn of revenue for the next few quarters. Its shares rose by about 5% in post-market trading last night, driving futures on the S&P 500 (+1.32%) and NASDAQ (+1.88%) markedly higher overnight. Tech stocks that have recently been weak also climbed in after hours with CoreWeave around +9% higher for example. If this Nvidia move fully materializes in the regular session today, it would go against the recent pattern I noted in the CoTD yesterday of Nvidia’s shares actually seeing pretty muted post-earnings moves since ChatGPT was launched nearly three years ago. Perhaps the difference this earnings season is that this was one of the weakest months before earnings Nvidia has had in the last three years. Normally their earnings get built up but recent bubble fears probably set a much lower bar than normal, one they comfortably cleared.

Asian equity markets are also soaring with the tech heavy KOSPI (+2.47%) and the Nikkei (+2.94%) having a strong session so far. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.20%) is also seeing noticeable gain, supported by mining stocks. Conversely, Chinese stocks are underperforming, with the CSI (+0.14%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.08%) only edging higher but with the Hang Seng (-0.09%) lower.

Ahead of Nvidia's results, the market selloff finally began to stabilise yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.38%) advancing after 4 consecutive declines. The Magnificent 7 (+0.83%) and Nasdaq (+0.59%) slightly outperformed helped by Nvidia itself being up +2.85% before its earnings announcement as well as a strong gain for Alphabet (+3.00%) amid positive reviews for the new version of its Gemini AI model. Other signs of financial stress from earlier in the week also began to ease, with the VIX index (-1.03pts) falling back to 23.66pts, whilst US HY spreads tightened by -4bps. One obvious point of ongoing weakness was in crypto, where Bitcoin (-2.10%) closed at a 6-month low of $90,506, though it’s back up above $92k this morning amid the post-Nvidia rally. Also noteworthy was that Oracle 5yr CDS edged up another +2.9bps to 111bps. That may rally back a bit today though.

Yesterday’s equity gains were relatively narrow, with more than 60% of the S&P 500 constituents losing ground. Despite the S&P trading up just over a percent in the first hour of trading, we saw the index briefly dip into negative territory after news broke just after Europe closed that there now wouldn't be an October payrolls report and that the November report wouldn't be released until December 16th  which is 9 days after the FOMC decision. So this reduces the data availability for the Fed before the meeting and thus makes a hold more likely. Indeed futures contracts showed that the probability of a December cut spiked lower from 47% to 27% within minutes of the BLS announcement, a huge move outside of data or speeches. It closed at 29%.

That repricing was solidified as the minutes of the October FOMC meeting showed “many” officials leaning against a December rate cut. While “several participants” said that a December rate cut “could well be appropriate”, “many participants suggested that… it would likely be appropriate to keep” rates steady into year-end. “Several” policymakers were even against the October rate cut itself, although in the end only Kansas Fed President Schmid dissented in favour of keeping rates on hold. US Treasuries had traded little changed before the minutes’ release but then lost ground, with the 2yr yield rising +1.9bps to 3.59%, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.4bps) closed at 4.14%. Yields are fairly steady overnight but with the front-end a bit higher.  

The Fed minutes also confirmed that “almost all participants” supported the impending end to QT announced at the October meeting following recent tightening in money market conditions, but showed little discussion on the future path of reserve management. A more differentiated direction of central bank balance sheet policies going into 2026 is one of the themes Peter Sidorov highlights in his new global money & credit chartbook published this morning.

With Nvidia’s result out the way, attention is now quickly turning to the delayed US jobs report for September, which we were meant to have nearly 7 weeks ago. Normally, a data release for a couple of months ago wouldn’t be too impactful, but a December cut likely relies on a weak print, which is clearly possible, especially optically when the breakeven rate of payrolls is as low as it is in 2025. Remember the jobs report back on August 1, when huge downward revisions undercut the story of labour market resilience after Liberation Day, which paved the way for the Fed to resume cutting in September. In terms of this report, our US economists expect both headline and private payrolls to come in at +75k in September (consensus at +50k and +65k respectively), with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. So a relatively firm report if they are correct. For more info and the subsequent DB Research webinar details, click here. The Labour Department is also expected to release backfilled weekly US jobless claims data today.

Over in Europe, the main news yesterday came from the UK CPI print, which showed inflation fell a bit less than the consensus expected in October. So headline inflation was down to +3.6% (vs. +3.5% expected), whilst core CPI was at +3.4% as expected. That said, some of the details were more promising, with services CPI down to +4.5% (vs. +4.6% expected), and investors dialled up the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut next month to 87%, up from 79% the day before. So that supported front-end gilts, but there was still a big curve steepening as doubts persisted about the fiscal situation ahead of next Wednesday’s budget. So the 10yr yield actually rose +4.9bps on the day to 4.60%, underperforming their European counterparts. Indeed the 30yr yield was up +6.3bps.

Otherwise in Europe, markets put in a steady performance across the board. So the STOXX 600 (-0.03%) barely budged, although it did mark a 5th consecutive decline for the index for the first time since June. UK equities were the main driver behind the losses, with the FTSE 100 (-0.47%) also posting a 5th consecutive decline for the first time since March. Then on the fixed income side, the major sovereign bonds saw little change, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.5bps), OATs (+0.3bps) and BTPs (-0.4bps) barely moving.

Overnight, Junko Koeda, a board member of the BOJ, has provided one of the most explicit hawkish indications from the central bank in recent months, suggesting the potential for a rate increase as early as next month. This is in response to the yen reaching its lowest value in 10 months. However the Yen hasn't moved much and JGBs continue their recent yield march higher ahead of the arrival of the details of PM Takaichi's stimulus package on Friday. 30-year JGBs have increased by +3.7bps, trading at a record high this morning. Similarly, 20-year JGBs have risen by +4.0bps, and at the highest level since 1999, while 10-year JGBs have climbed by +4.8bps to 1.81%, the highest level since 2008. So interesting times for Japan.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for September, with jobless claims also due. Otherwise, we’ll get US existing home sales for October, the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for November, and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook for November. In Europe, there’s also the German PPI for October, and the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area in November.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 08:29

Democrat Plaskett Digs Deeper Grave On Epstein Ties

Zero Hedge -

Democrat Plaskett Digs Deeper Grave On Epstein Ties

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Democrat Stacey Plaskett has doubled down on her Epstein collusion in a cringe inducing CNN interview, shrugging off his known sex offender status and sparking outrage as the Epstein files bill clears the Senate for Trump’s signature, exposing the left’s sudden “transparency” push as a desperate backfire.

Here’s the backstory:

Plaskett defended her Epstein texts, stating  “I believed Epstein had information. I was gonna get that information to seek truth.” 

The CNN anchor pressed, “At the time, he was a known sex offender…” prompting Plaskett to respond “A lot of people have done a lot of crimes!” 

In an earlier House floor speech, Plaskett admitted, “I got a text from Jeffrey Epstein, who at the time was my constituent… who was sharing information with me.”

She added, “I have been a lawyer for thirty years… I know how to question individuals. I know how to seek information. I have sought information from confidential informants, from murderers, from other individuals because I want the truth.”

Plaskett claimed Republicans have “taken a text exchange which shows no participation, no assistance, no involvement in any illegal activity and weaponized it for political theater.”

She added that Epstein “As a constituent, as an individual who gave donations to me, when I learned of the extents of his actions after his investigation, I gave that money to women organizations in my community…That’s what I think should have been done and that’s what I did.”

The House rejected censuring Plaskett over her Epstein collusion, with every Democrat voting to shield her—3 Republicans crossed over, 3 Dems abstained. 

This swampy move drew fury as the left is rallying behind Plaskett despite the scandal.

To make matters even worse, there was a reported backroom deal made to dodge Plaskett’s censure in exchange for dropping one on Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL). 

Rep. Luna blasted: “House leadership exchanged that censure failure for the withdrawal of a vote to censure and refer Cory Mills to house ethics for investigation. The swamp protects itself.”

Rep. Nancy Mace is now forcing a Mills censure vote, in an attempt to crack the bipartisan cover-up.

As we highlighted, the Epstein files bill has cleared the Senate unanimously and is now headed to Trump’s desk for signature—potentially unlocking a searchable database of all documents.

Trump declared earlier this week that “The House Oversight Committee can have whatever they are legally entitled to, I DON’T CARE!”

Analyst Scott Jennings urged “We’re going to find out the Epstein political story has everything to do with Democrats – and nothing to do with Donald Trump. That could blow up in their face!” 

 

He added: “If there was incriminating evidence about Trump in the Epstein docs, it would have been leaked already. He’s been public enemy number one for 10 years!”

 Jennings reiterated, “It’s been going on for 10 years. If there was a shred of anything to know about Donald Trump, we would already know it.”

“We know that Trump knew Jeffrey Epstein, and we know that he excommunicated him from Mar-a-Lago and his life. We also know that after Epstein was convicted, that powerful Democrats continued to stay in touch with Jeffrey Epstein,” Jennings further stressed.

“This is not a story about Trump. It is a story about powerful men. Many of them are in the Democratic Party. We’re going to find that out,” he predicted.

In related remarks, Sen. Josh Hawley stated that “The Democrats are going to regret ever playing around with this, and they’re going to regret embracing ‘transparency,’ though I’m glad they did!”

“They thought, I think, that that files would never become public. They thought this was all a game. Well, guess what? They’re going to get their wish. They are going to become public.” Hawley further proclaimed.

He added: “The president’s going to sign the bill. The president’s been right all along on this. He said months ago, make public everything you can that’s not classified. Now Congress is finally going to do it. And I think we’re going to learn a lot.”

“A lot of people suddenly are going to get real reticent to talk about Epstein, whether it’s Hakeem Jeffries, whether it’s Larry Summers… We’re going to find out a lot about a lot of folks because you know what else is in this bill that just passed tonight? It’s got to be a searchable database so any American can go in and read the files for themselves,” Hawley explained.

Speaking of Summers, the ex-Treasury Secretary has resigned from OpenAI’s board and stepped back from Harvard activities—sweating as the searchable files loom, with Democrats stone silent on the fallout.

 

This all highlights how Trump should never have stalled on this matter. Democrat-Epstein ties can now be unmasked—proving the real scandal all along was their silence.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 08:25

Walmart Beats Earnings, Hikes Guidance As Consumer Trade-Down Accelerates

Zero Hedge -

Walmart Beats Earnings, Hikes Guidance As Consumer Trade-Down Accelerates

Walmart shares are moving lower in premarket trading despite solid third-quarter results, suggesting that price-sensitive consumers are flocking to its stores nationwide. The shift toward value mirrors what off-brand retailer TJ Maxx reported on Wednesday. It caps a pivotal week for retailers (as described by Goldman's Scott Feiler), with Home Depot and Target both highlighting sagging demand and stressed household budgets earlier in the week.

What's key to understand is that consumers are continuing to trade down to Walmart in the third quarter. The retailer's core U.S. stores saw same-store sales rise 4.5%, beating the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 4.03%. Store visits were down during the quarter, but basket sizes grew.

Third-Quarter Results (All vs. BBG Estimates)

U.S. comp sales ex-gas: +4.4% (est. +4.0%).

  • Walmart U.S. stores: +4.5% (est. +4.03%).
  • Sam’s Club: +3.8% (miss vs. est. +4.77%).

Adjusted EPS: $0.62, beat (est. $0.60).

Revenue: $179.5B, +5.8% YoY (est. $177.57B).

Adjusted operating income: $7.2B (est. $7.03B).

Sam's Club e-commerce: +22% (est. +15.7%).

More in-depth on Total Revenues via WMT Presentation

Full-year guidance was raised again. Management now expects 4.8% to 5.1% sales growth for the fiscal year, reflecting elevated confidence in traffic across Walmart stores, Walmart.com, and Sam's Club. 

Full-Year Guidance Raised

  • Adjusted EPS: Now $2.58–$2.63 (prior: $2.52–$2.62; consensus: $2.61).

  • Net sales (constant currency): Now +4.8% to +5.1% (prior: +3.75% to +4.75%).

  • Adjusted operating income (ex-FX): +4.8% to +5.5%.

  • Effective tax rate: Tracking toward mid-to-low end of 23.5%–24.5%.

  • Capex: ~3.5% of net sales (slightly higher than prior range).

More color on guidance via WMT Presentation 

In recent weeks, Walmart and the White House have promoted the retailer's Thanksgiving meal deal bundle, which serves up to 10 people and is being offered at 2019 prices. Trump's repeated spotlighting of the deal only underscores the high demand Walmart is likely to see heading into the holiday season next week. 

"The team delivered another strong quarter across the business," Doug McMillon, Walmart's chief executive, said in a statement. Last week, the retailer announced McMillon would retire at the end of January and be replaced by John Furner, head of Walmart's U.S. business. 

Walmart shares fell about 2% in premarket trading in New York. Shares are up 11% year to date. 

Goldman's Feiler breaks down the tactical bull/bear case:

  • Bears: The biggest pushback will remain valuation (34x P/E on next year’s numbers) and a debate if they can get that acceleration that Consensus is modeling for EPS next year (+13% vs +mid-singles this year).

  • Bulls: Just will keep this tucked away as it’s pulled back and they’re still the scaled share gainer in the space.

Bloomberg analyst Heather Burke provided color on WMT's price action post earnings: 

Walmart shares are falling about 2% in pre- market trading even though the retailer increased its sales outlook for the full year. The CFO said consumer spending has been largely consistent, though there's "some slight moderation" within lower-income households. Middle- and higher-income shoppers aren't pulling back.

There's no obvious catalyst though investors may be getting concerned about the impact of tariffs after the CFO said that there are higher costs flowing through in coming months. Prices in this latest report rose 1%, suggesting the retailer has been absorbing some costs.

This week, Home Depot and Target set the trend for consumer earnings, reporting dismal results. Then, off-price retail chain TJ Maxx reported solid earnings, only suggesting consumers are trading down as low- and middle-income consumers are getting financially squeezed. 

Goldman has flagged imploding sentiment, UBS has revealed the tale of two consumer worlds, and consumer behavior and spending trends show a pullback in discretionary spending, from restaurants to big-box retailers. 

The strain has become large enough that the Trump administration rolled out "Operation Affordability" last week, an attempt to ease pressure ahead of the midterm election cycle. 

Read Feiler's note on retailer earnings expected later today and Friday.  

*   *   * 

View WMT's earnings presentation 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 07:40

How The Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox

Zero Hedge -

How The Fed Deals Liquidity: The Monetary Toolbox

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In our last article, QE Is Coming, we focused on why the capital and financial markets have become so dependent on the Fed for liquidity.  The article explains that, in the aftermath of the crisis, a slew of regulations drastically changed the liquidity landscape. As a result, the Fed—not the private market—is now the primary provider of liquidity.

A reader asked us the following:

“Can you provide a list and description of the liquidity tools in the Fed’s toolbox?”  

We like the idea. Given the importance of liquidity to financial market performance, it is crucial to understand not only who supplies liquidity but also how they do so.

Let’s walk through the Fed’s balance sheet and gain a better appreciation for its toolbox.

Total Reserve Balances

In our prior article, we noted that overnight liquidity providers have shifted from private markets to the Fed.

Many repo counterparties that provided liquidity in the pre-2008 era were not banks and thus did not hold bank reserves. Today, with many of those liquidity-providing counterparties unable or unwilling to provide liquidity, liquidity comes from the banks via the Fed. When a bank transacts with the Fed, the Fed either adds or withdraws reserves to the banking system. Thus, when assessing the level of outstanding liquidity, a glance at banking system reserves provides a good gauge. Think of reserves as a footprint of Fed actions.

The graph below shows that bank reserves are approaching five-year lows. As a result, and unsurprisingly, the Fed has ended QT, which reduces reserves, and has begun hinting at QE.

Given that liquidity in the financial system is now reserves-based, let’s look at the Fed’s tools for adding and reducing reserves.

QE/QT

Quantitative Easing (QE) and Quantitative Tightening (QT) are the most well-known of the Fed’s tools.  

QE is when the Fed purchases Treasury and/or Mortgage-Backed Securities from the banking system. The Fed pays the banks for the securities with reserves. Thus, QE removes securities from the market and increases banks’ reserves. QT is the opposite, as it effectively puts securities back into circulation, thereby removing reserves from the banking system. As the chart shows, QE and QT are correlated with bank reserves, but there are clearly other factors — some under the Fed’s control and others beyond the Fed’s reach — that also affect reserves, as we will discuss.

QE and QT are blunt liquidity tools, as they regularly inject or withdraw reserves on a fixed schedule, regardless of the system’s daily liquidity requirements.

Other Reserve Management Tools

To help the Fed fine-tune the financial system’s daily liquidity demands, it offers several facilities to the capital markets. The rates on these programs are based on the Fed’s target Fed Funds rate. While activity in the Fed Funds market pales in comparison to what it was before the financial crisis, the Fed Funds rate remains the policy rate at which the Fed targets overnight financing.

As the graph below shows, the Fed is incredibly effective at controlling the rate.

The Toolbox

The Fed has five primary tools for targeting the Fed Funds rate.

  • Interest On Reserve Balances (IORB): The Fed pays interest on banks’ reserves held at the Fed. Raising the rate increases the incentive to hold reserves and vice versa. Therefore, IORB can effectively manage reserves and, in turn, liquidity.

  • Open Market Operations: Before 2008, open market operations were the primary tool the Fed used to manage the Fed Funds rate. It entails the Fed buying and selling government securities to withdraw or add liquidity to the money markets. Buying increases reserves and adds liquidity, while selling does the opposite. They are like QE or QT, except they occur on an as-needed basis. These operations are now infrequent.

  • Overnight Reverse Repurchase Facility (ON RRP): Through this program, the Fed borrows money from a counterparty via repo.  The program keeps a floor on overnight interest rates. This facility absorbed excess liquidity from the massive Pandemic stimulus. Its daily volume is now minimal.

  • Standing Repo Facility (SRF): This facility provides overnight liquidity by lending cash against collateral. Just as the ON RRP is a floor, the SRF is a ceiling. Assuming counterparties are willing to borrow from the Fed, the Fed Funds rate should be capped at the SRF rate.

  • The Discount Rate: A relic of the pre-financial crisis era. Like the SRF, it serves as a backstop. The discount rate is above the Fed Funds rate; thus, there is little incentive to use it, other than in times of a severe liquidity shortfall.

The Fed’s tools create a corridor, or floors and ceilings for overnight rates, allowing the Fed to control overnight borrowing rates. The table below shows what the corridor looks like assuming today’s Fed Funds target range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

Regulatory Factors Affecting Liquidity

As we discussed extensively in QE Is Coming, a spate of conservative regulations has significantly changed who provides liquidity to the capital markets. There is a lot of talk that these risk-averse regulatory measures could be reversed shortly.

When Chair Powell’s term ends next year, we are likely to see some deregulation in the banking industry, which should improve the private sector’s ability to provide liquidity. Per the Washington Post:

One of the most consequential shifts may come in a highly technical debate over how much debt banks can use to fund their investments and the size of financial buffers that big banks hold to absorb losses. The Federal Reserve and other regulators are planning to ease requirements in ways that could have the effect of increasing the overall amount of debt and lowering the protective cushions in the system. While it remains unclear exactly where officials will land, it’ll be far from the Biden-era effort to essentially do the opposite.

Over the long run, the risks of deregulating the banking industry should be concerning, as history has proven that such actions can be unwise. However, investors should also focus on the short-term benefits.  Specifically, reductions in capital requirements, especially for the largest banks (GSIBs —Globally Systemically Important Banks), would free up capital, allowing them to make more loans and/or buy more securities. Such would result generally in more system-wide liquidity. Additionally, the largest banks should post higher profits and be more incentivized to hold US Treasuries, thereby lowering yields.

 

The Public Sectors’ Impact On Liquidity

The Fed has significant power to manage liquidity, but the free market still dictates its distribution and use. Consider a few ways in which the public sector dictates liquidity.

  • Bank Deposits: When a customer deposits money at a bank, they are essentially providing the bank with liquidity. The one deposit allows the bank, through the fractional reserve banking system, to make several loans, which, in aggregate, can be up to 10x the original deposit. Withdrawals have the opposite effect on liquidity.

  • Loan Demand: Strong loan demand uses reserves, thus reducing liquidity. Conversely, when the private sector is not demanding loans, reserves tend to be stable.

  • Bank Lending Policies: Tight lending policies reduce liquidity from the markets, while easy policies increase liquidity. Lending policies are often a function of system reserves and economic conditions.

  • Economic Conditions: Economic conditions tend to play a large role in the demand and supply of liquidity.

  • Federal Deficits: Federal deficits require debt issuance, which drains liquidity from the system. The larger the deficit, the more liquidity it demands, which crowds out the private sector.

  • Treasury General Account (TGA): The TGA is essentially the government’s checking account, maintained at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It includes tax receipts, proceeds from Treasury auctions, and payments distribution.  When the government builds its TGA balances, it drains liquidity from the market. Conversely, when it is declining, liquidity is entering the market.  While an essential part of the liquidity equation and involving the Fed, the Fed staff has no control over the balances.

Tracking Liquidity At The Fed 

Every week, the Fed releases its balance sheet and the changes to it from the prior week. The report is linked HERE.

In addition, all the programs discussed in this article can be charted on the St. Louis Fed’s FRED website.

Graphing Today’s Liquidity Stress

We now share two graphs to help appreciate the liquidity stress that is slowly brewing in the capital markets. For reference, SOFR, or the secured overnight financing rate, is the overnight borrowing rate for non-bank financial institutions. US Treasury securities collateralize SOFR financing; thus, for all intents and purposes, it is risk-free.

SOFR vs IORB

SOFR is the overnight repo rate among non-bank financial institutions. The rate is typically above the ON RRP rate at which institutions can lend to the Fed and below the IORB rate. In ideal liquidity conditions, a bank should decide to lend via the collateralized SOFR markets when the SOFR rate exceeds the IORB rate. When SFOR is above IORB and they don’t, it signals there is a liquidity shortfall or some other reason why banks are unwilling to increase profits without taking on risks. As shown below, SOFR has been steadily trading above IORB since October.

Standing Repo Facility Usage

The graph below, courtesy of Bianco Research, shows that the Standing Repo Facility has been used somewhat frequently over the last two months. As we wrote, this is a ceiling of sorts and should be used only when the SOFR market is not functioning properly.

Summary

Regardless of how much or little you understand of the Fed’s toolbox, the critical concept from this article and QE Is Coming is that the Fed has much more control over liquidity than it did before 2008. Consequently, given that liquidity is a primary driver of markets, the Fed’s monetary and regulatory actions should be of utmost importance to investors and closely followed.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 07:20

Carson Block: Shorting Big Tech Is Widowmaker Trade, Even With AI Bubble Fears

Zero Hedge -

Carson Block: Shorting Big Tech Is Widowmaker Trade, Even With AI Bubble Fears

Muddy Waters Capital CEO Carson Block joined Bloomberg TV overnight to discuss whether it's time to short the hyperscalers and the broader artificial-intelligence trade. The answer he gave is somewhat surprising.

Block, a notorious short-seller, warned against betting against the tech giants: "If you're out there trying to short Nvidia or any of these big tech names, you're not going to be in business very long."

"I would much rather be long than be short in this market," Block told BBG TV, adding, "You have all these AI adjacent companies, AI pretenders, that's where you would want to look to short." 

He continued, "However, so long as the leaders such as Nvidia are still going up into the right, that would be a very dangerous trade."

Block noted that the surge in passive trading had "broken the markets in terms of greatly diminishing price discovery."

"It doesn't matter how expensive Nvidia gets," he said. "All of these funds that are buying the S&P 500 index, they will not sell Nvidia until they have net outflows. They will buy it everyday at whatever the price is if they have inflows."

Comments from the seasoned short-seller, who has lived through multiple cycles, come just hours after Nvidia jumped 5% in after-hours trading on Wednesday following strong earnings (read report).

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu told clients earlier, "Nvidia's Upbeat Forecast Should Lift Some AI Bubble Fears." 

Antiedu explained further:

Nvidia's after-market strength was sustained, with the stock up 5%, and nothing to nit-pick with a continued upbeat tone on the call with GB300 surpassing GB200, robust accelerator demand and Rubin on track for the second half of 2026. CEO Jensen Huang downplayed any AI bubble fears saying "we see something very different" and reiterated the $500 bn revenue visibility target by the end of 2026. He cited this number will grow with more orders (the Anthropic deal as one example). In terms of supply constraints, Nvidia did acknowledge input costs are going up, but they plan to sustain mid-70s gross margins as it appears to be doing a good job managing the supply chain planning for a "really big year". Overall, a rather upbeat forecast/outlook, which should sooth some of lingering AI bubble fears and a general sigh of relief for markets broadly.

Last week, "Big Short" investor Michael Burry deregistered Scion Asset Management with the Securities and Exchange Commission after receiving a lot of criticism on X over his latest 13F, which showed that roughly 80% of his put positions were concentrated in high-fliers Palantir and Nvidia.

It's no mystery why Burry wants to hide his trades in secrecy - it only takes one X post to go viral, like this one... 

The trillion-dollar question ...

... is whether Nvidia earnings revive another up leg in everything AI and crypto into the holidays. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 06:55

10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My morning train WFH reads:

• Is $200 Million the New $100 Million in Luxury Real Estate? A surge of ultra-rich buyers has pushed asking prices to new extremes, yet many headline-grabbing megamansions languish on the market or trade for a fraction of their debut numbers. (Wall Street Journal)

• Crypto World Wipes Out $1 Trillion as Bitcoin Plunges Anew. The great crypto crash of 2025 entered a new phase on Wednesday, as Bitcoin plunged to its lowest level in seven months, extending the more than $1 trillion wipeout across the digital‑asset world. The largest cryptocurrency fell to as low as $88,522, with the latest rout hitting investors big and small — from retail dip‑buyers to digital‑asset treasury firms whose stock premiums are vanishing. (Bloomberg) see also The Crypto Trades That Amplified Gains Are Now Turbocharging Losses: Bitcoin’s steep fall highlights the growth of risky bets offered by Wall Street and crypto firms alike. (Wall Street Journal)

• Stock Markets Are Spooked by Fed Rate-Cut Doubts. It’s Too Early to Panic. How quickly things can change. Markets have swung from euphoria to fright in the space of barely a week but it’s not clear that the fundamental dynamics of the U.S. economy or corporate profits have altered all that much. (Barron’s)

• 10 Things We Can Learn From Warren Buffett That Have Nothing to Do With Money: Life lessons from the Oracle of Omaha as he retires as Berkshire Hathaway’s CEO. (Morningstar)

• Hedge Funds Call This Psychologist When Their Traders Start Losing: Dave Popple is tasked with finding who can cut it for hypercompetitive multimanager funds. (Wall Street Journal)

• Janet Yellen Says the US Is Undermining Its Economic Success: The former Treasury secretary warns that Trump’s attacks on the rule of law, the Fed and universities threaten the foundations of American prosperity. (Bloomberg)

• New York Lacked an Affordable Housing Portal. So These Teenagers Made One. Two “children of the pandemic” did something the grown-ups who run the city have never managed to do. (New York Times)

• The running industrial complex: I fell in love with the world’s simplest sport. Then the Instagram ads started flooding in. (Business Insider)

• Steve Bannon advised Jeffrey Epstein for years on how to rehab his reputation, texts show: Pair devised responses to public outrage about Epstein’s criminal history, his treatment by the justice system and his friendships with powerful people. (The Guardian)

• It’s the NBA’s Most Devastating Play—and It Starts With a Missed Shot: Nobody in the NBA is better at gobbling up rebounds than Steven Adams. So the Houston Rockets have turned missed shots into part of a spectacular attack. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our special live episode of Masters in Business Live from the Economic Club of New York, with Nobel laureate Richard Thaler, and his colleague from the Booth School of Business, Alex Imas, Professor of Behavioral Science, Economics and Applied AI; we discuss the new edition of their book “The Winner’s Curse.”

 

This strength of higher-income household balance sheets relative to lower-income balance sheets is the reason why consumer discretionary stocks in recent months have been outperforming consumer staples

Source: Apollo

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

US And UK Revolt Forces Basel To Rethink Brutal Crypto Capital Rules For Banks

Zero Hedge -

US And UK Revolt Forces Basel To Rethink Brutal Crypto Capital Rules For Banks

Authored by Ezra Reguerra via CoinTelegraph.com,

Global bank regulators are preparing to revisit their most stringent crypto rules after the United States and the United Kingdom refused to implement them, a move that threatens to unravel the long-standing consensus of the Basel Committee. 

In an interview with the Financial Times, Erik Thedéen, the governor of the Swedish central bank and chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), said they may need a “different approach” to the current 1,250% risk weighting for crypto exposures. 

According to global law firm White & Case, the application of the 1,250% risk weight means that credit institutions must hold their own funds of at least equal value to the amount of the respective crypto-asset exposure. 

Under the existing framework, crypto assets issued on a permissionless blockchain, which includes stablecoins such as USDt and USDC, receive the same 1,250% risk weighting used for the riskiest venture investments. 

However, Thedéen acknowledged that the rapid growth of regulated stablecoins has changed the policy landscape.

“What has happened has been fairly dramatic,” Thedéen told the Financial Times, adding that there is a strong increase in stablecoins and that the amount of assets in the system calls for a new approach. 

“We need to start analysing. But we need to be fairly quick on it,” Thedéen added, floating questions over stablecoin risks and if there was an argument that could approach the assets in “a different way.”

Explicit resistance from major economies 

The resistance felt from major economies is now more explicit. According to the FT report, the US Federal Reserve does not plan to implement the Basel crypto rules as written, with policymakers calling the capital charges unrealistic. 

The Bank of England also signaled that it will not apply the framework in its current form. At the same time, the European Union has only partially implemented the 2022 standard, excluding key provisions that cover permissionless blockchains. 

Citing anonymous sources, Bloomberg previously reported that the Basel Committee is preparing to revise its 2022 guidance next year to be more favorable to banks participating in crypto markets.

The report said that many banks interpreted the framework as a deterrent to engaging with cryptocurrency or stablecoin services. 

The talks reportedly intensified as regulated stablecoins gained traction in the US, supported by US President Donald Trump and the passage of the GENIUS Act, which formally authorized the use of these assets in payments. 

Stablecoin boom requires rethink of rules

Thedéen echoed the concerns in the FT report, saying that the increase in stablecoin adoption requires fresh analysis and a potentially more lenient stance. 

However, he also said that reaching an agreement may be difficult as regulators are divided on core assumptions about crypto’s risk profile and the role of bank-issued digital assets. 

“Going further than that at this point in time is difficult, because I’m the chair and there are so many different views in this committee,” he said

Widening split raises level-playing-field concerns

The divergence in policies creates a competitive imbalance for global banks. If EU banks remain bound by these mandates while the US and the UK operate under more lenient frameworks, the playing field becomes significantly tilted. 

This imbalance would influence which jurisdictions can build bank-issued stablecoin products, tokenized deposits or even crypto custody solutions. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 06:30

"Increasingly Becoming No-Go Areas" – Violent Crime Explodes At German Train Stations

Zero Hedge -

"Increasingly Becoming No-Go Areas" – Violent Crime Explodes At German Train Stations

Via Remix News,

Exploding violence in Germany has long been tied to mass immigration, as the statistics clearly show, and German train stations are becoming another perfect illustration of this worrying trend.

The number of violent crimes at Berlin central station in 2024 has tripled compared to 2019, which was the last year before the coronavirus crisis. In Cologne, violent crime has grown 70 percent in the same timeframe, according to Welt newspaper.

Those are just two cities, but the same trend is seen everywhere.

“Look at a main train station, in Duisburg, in Hamburg, in Frankfurt. Neglect, drug dealers, young men, mostly with a migrant background, mostly from Eastern Europe or Arab-Muslim cultural areas. This also has to do with irregular migration, as it looks in our inner cities, in the marketplaces“, said Jens Spahn, the CDU parliamentary group leader, in a BILD interview. Remarkably, his own party is massively responsible for Germany’s incredible demographic transformation and crime crisis.

As the left promotes public transport as a big part of the solution to climate change, the reality is that taking public transport is becoming more and more dangerous.

According to police data, the total number of violent crimes at train stations rose from 25,640 in 2023 to 27,160 last year. Meanwhile, women are more and more at risk. Sexual crimes increased from 1,898 to 2,262 within a year, while property damage jumped from 30,961 to 32,671.

This follows data from earlier in the year that showed foreigners commit 59 percent of all sexual crimes on German trains and at train stations, with serious sexual crimes doubling since 2019.

According to a statement, Alternative for Germany (AfD) MP Martin Hess warned: “Train stations, once places of mobility and peaceful encounters, are increasingly becoming no-go areas.“

“In many areas of crime, foreigners are disproportionately represented among the suspects,” he added.

Saxony, which has far fewer foreigners, sees huge crime increase

Even in German states with far fewer migrants, foreigners are contributing to a massive rise in crime and sexual assaults. In Saxony, for instance, crime has jumped massively in just one year at German train stations.

Citing the new data, just released a few days ago, AfD MP Matthias Rentzsch states:

“The sharp rise in crime (total offenses: 11,065 in the first half of 2025) at Saxon train stations is alarming. Whether property crimes, vandalism, or violent offenses: virtually all forms of crime show massive increases. Violent offenses at Saxon train stations rose by a good 42 percent, sexual offenses by over 15 percent, and weapons offenses by almost 87 percent. At some individual Saxon train stations, there were enormous increases in crime. For example, the number of offenses at Dresden Central Station rose by 24.6 percent, at Leipzig Central Station by 57.2 percent, and at Bischofswerda Station by 100 percent,” he said.

Rentzsch points out an especially shocking statistic in one German city: “The Chemnitz Central Station is the unfortunate leader, with an increase of 212.5 percent.”

As with every single German state, migration is the biggest driver of this crime surge.

“The uncontrolled mass immigration, largely driven by the CDU/CSU and SPD, is clearly having an effect: almost Foreign nationals account for 50 percent of all crimes committed at Saxon train stations, and there is a significantly above-average proportion of foreign suspects in violent, property, sexual, and drug-related offenses,” he said.

Notably, in Saxony, only 8 percent of the population is made up of foreigners, yet they are responsible for 50 percent of all crimes in train stations. Another 5 percent or so of the population are German citizens with a migration background.

Government avoids talk of mass deportation, focuses on mass surveillance

Due to the drastic increase in acts of violence around the train stations, Federal Interior Minister Dobrindt (CSU) says he wants to take action, even as the police union speaks of “intolerable“ conditions.

Knives also play an increasingly large role in train stations. During just one year, the number of weapons offenses rose from 589 to 808, and property damage from 16,786 to 17,595. As Welt notes, “Foreign nationals are overrepresented across all crime groups.”

Meanwhile, German police unions are calling train stations across the country “crime hotspots.”

The fact that public space is closing to Germans is becoming more and more apparent, as young men from foreign lands, along with Germans with a migration background, increasingly dominate these vital areas. As with the case of swimming pools and Christmas markets, the solution is more surveillance that increasingly relies on artificial intelligence and a large police state presence.

As Welt notes, “Cameras are now running in many train stations, which are also intended to detect abnormalities at an early stage with AI support and can help emergency services assess the situation. According to Dobrindt, 200 cameras are now in use in Munich alone, which ‘contributes to de-escalation.’ The interior minister announced an expansion of video surveillance – technology has tripled the number of suspects identified in recent years.”

Remarkably, even as these technologies increase more suspects, crime keeps rising. In part, suspects are likely given light or no criminal sentence at all, and many of those who are caught are never deported.

The government admits itself it is not partaking in a mass deportation drive, but instead more “control” and “surveillance” to police the imported population.

“Control, surveillance, motivated emergency services. This is our model against crime and our model for an increasing sense of security in Germany,“ said Dobrindt to describe his campaign.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 05:00

Russian Spy Ship Breached UK Waters, Aimed Lasers At Military Pilots, Britain Says

Zero Hedge -

Russian Spy Ship Breached UK Waters, Aimed Lasers At Military Pilots, Britain Says

The British government issued a warning to Moscow on Wednesday, putting the Kremlin on notice over a Russian naval vessel allegedly having entered British territorial waters and aiming lasers at UK pilots.

Defense Secretary John Healey accused the Yantar, a special purpose intelligence collection ship, of its second intrusion into UK waters this year, following a similar incident last January. "At the moment, the Yantar is positioned just off U.K. waters north of Scotland, after moving through the wider surrounding area over recent weeks," Healey told a press briefing held at at Downing Street.

The UK military scrambled aerial assets in response, including Royal Air Force jets as well as a naval frigate, in order to "track and monitor the vessel," during which time "the Yantar directed lasers at our pilots."

AFP/Getty Images

He condemned the use of the lasers against UK aircraft as "extremely dangerous" and then said he was addressing a warning Russian President Vladimir Putin directly: "We see what you're doing. We are fully aware. And if the Yantar continues south this week, we are prepared," he said.

Further according to the BBC:

Healey said the laser incident took place whilst the Yantar was being followed by a Royal Navy frigate and RAF Poseidon P-8 planes deployed to "track the vessel's every move". It is understood the episode occurred within the last two weeks.

Speaking at a news conference in Downing Street, the defense secretary added he had changed the Royal Navy's rules of engagement so that it could follow the Yantar more closely "when it is in our wider waters".

Western allies believe Russian naval 'research vessels' like the Yantar are assisting with Moscow-backed 'sabotage campaigns' in northern European waters. For example the last couple years have seen allegations of Russian vessels cutting telecoms cables under the North Sea and elsewhere.

Healey's warning of being 'prepared' to act could be the closest London has recently come to threatening direct military action against a Russian naval asset. 

Such action could start with an attempt to intercept or chase the vessel away from British waters, or even fire warning shots or more if things should escalate.

A response to the accusations was issued by the Russian Embassy in London. It said Russia isn't interested in sabotaging anything in regional waters. "London, with its Russophobic path and increasing militaristic hysteria leads to further degradation European security, providing the premise for new dangerous situations," it said.

"We call on the British side to hold off taking any destructive steps which might aggravate the crisis situation on the European continent," the embassy added. Russian officials and institutions have been under intense scrutiny in the UK ever since the Ukraine war began, and relations are steadily worsening.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 04:15

Tea And Cocoa May Offset Health Risks Of Excessive Sitting

Zero Hedge -

Tea And Cocoa May Offset Health Risks Of Excessive Sitting

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

We’re often advised to move more—whether through exercise or simply standing up—to counteract the adverse effects of prolonged sitting. But what if you could get the benefits of standing up simply by eating and drinking certain foods?

The Epoch Times/Shutterstock

New research from the University of Birmingham, recently published in The Journal of Physiology, suggests that eating foods high in flavanols—such as tea, berries, apples, and cocoa—may help protect blood vessels from the damage caused by prolonged periods of sitting.

Sitting Increases Cardiovascular Risk

If you’re a young adult, chances are you’re sitting for about six hours a day—whether at a desk, in a car, or on the couch. All that sitting takes a toll on your blood vessels, raising your risk of heart disease, according to researchers.

Previous research has shown that even a 1 percent dip in how well your arteries expand and contract bumps up your risk of heart disease, stroke, and heart attacks by 13 percent.

The researchers set out to discover whether eating flavanol-rich foods could help offset such damage. Flavanols are naturally occurring compounds found in fruits, tea, nuts, and cocoa beans.

Lead author Catarina Rendeiro, assistant professor in nutritional sciences at the University of Birmingham, and her team recruited 40 healthy young men—half of them physically fit, and half not. Before having the participants sit for two hours, the researchers gave them drinks: some were given a high-flavanol cocoa beverage containing 695 milligrams of flavanols, while others received a low-flavanol version with just 5.6 milligrams.

The team then tracked what happened to the participants’ blood vessels during the two hours of sitting, measuring everything from artery flexibility to blood pressure, blood flow, and how well oxygen reached their leg muscles.

High Flavanol Drink Prevented Damage

After sitting for two hours, men who drank the low-flavanol cocoa experienced stiffening of their arteries, increased blood pressure, and decreased blood flow and muscle oxygenation, regardless of their level of physical fitness.

Conversely, those who drank the high-flavanol drink did not exhibit the same declines, suggesting that flavanols can prevent blood vessel damage associated with prolonged sitting.

“Our experiment indicates that higher fitness levels do not prevent the temporary impairment of vascular function induced by sitting when only drinking low-flavanol cocoa,” study co-author Sam Lucas, a professor of cerebrovascular and exercise physiology at the University of Birmingham, said in a statement. He noted that after drinking the high-flavanol drink, “both fitter and less-fit participants kept their FMD [flow-mediated dilatation] the same as it was before sitting for two hours.”

The study is the first to find that fitness levels do not influence how flavanols affect blood vessels, meaning everyone may benefit from flavanol intake regardless of physical fitness.

Rendeiro told The Epoch Times that the main mechanism by which flavanols work in the blood vessels is by boosting the availability of nitric oxide—a molecule that helps blood vessels relax and expand.

More specifically, she said, evidence from human and cellular models suggests that the flavanol epicatechin and its breakdown products can increase the bioavailability of nitric oxide.

The study did not include women, Rendeiro said, because hormonal changes during the menstrual cycle may influence flavanol effects.

“At the moment, we are not able to know whether these benefits would be apparent in women as well,” she said. ”This needs to be the focus of a future study.”

Estrogen, which rises during ovulation and falls when menstruation begins, has a vasodilatory effect on the vessels, which is generally associated with better blood vessel health, “so it is possible [the] benefits of flavanols may be more apparent during certain stages of the menstrual cycle versus others.”

Many Sources of Flavonols Available

“It is actually quite easy to add high flavanol foods to your diet,” doctoral student Alessio Daniele noted in the statement. He pointed out that there are cocoa products available in supermarkets and health stores that are processed through methods that preserve flavanol levels.

“If cocoa isn’t your thing,” (ZH: wtf) he said, “fruits like apples, plums and berries, nuts, and black and green tea are all common kitchen staples and are readily available.”

Rendeiro said that her research shows consuming high-flavanol foods and drinks during periods spent sitting down is a good way to reduce some of the impact of inactivity on the vascular system, but that breaking up sitting with standing or short walks should be our “main strategy.”

“However, in situations in which that is not possible, using healthy dietary strategies rich in flavanols may help mitigate some of the negative effects of sitting on vascular function.”

*  *  * Oh you thought this was an ad? Nope. Enjoy your chocolate and tea sirs and ma'ams. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/20/2025 - 03:30

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