Venezuela's Methane Problem Looms Over Trump's Oil Revival Plan

President Trump’s push to revive Venezuela’s oil sector is colliding with a major technical obstacle: vast methane leaks from crumbling infrastructure that could scare off large international investors, according to Bloomberg.

Satellite monitoring shows huge plumes of methane rising from abandoned rigs, corroded pipelines and aging facilities across the country. Those emissions signal both lost revenue and deep operational problems — conditions that tend to deter major oil companies. As Clayton Nash of Tegre Corp. put it, “That’s one way that you’re going to know that you’ve got facilities that are not operated well.”

Each year Venezuela wastes about 13 billion cubic meters of natural gas through flaring, venting and leaks, roughly $1.4 billion in potential revenue. About a quarter of its total gas output escapes into the atmosphere — the highest rate globally and nearly ten times the world average. The scale of those leaks reflects decades of neglect, theft and underinvestment, leaving what remains of the system fragile and costly to repair.

Bloomberg writes that those realities complicate Trump’s effort to draw fresh capital. The White House is bringing U.S. oil executives to Washington on Friday to advance that plan, with the core message expected to be: “Do it for our country.” Yet analysts warn that political instability and Venezuela’s history of seizing foreign assets may keep major companies on the sidelines.

“We anticipate that large, publicly traded US and European majors will remain hesitant given their checkered history in the region,” said Quentin Peyle of Kayrros SA. “Instead, investment will likely come from smaller operators with a higher risk appetite.”

That shift carries its own risks. Smaller firms often lack the capital and incentives needed to modernize operations and control emissions at scale. Even if leaks are reduced, Deborah Gordon of RMI cautioned that “Venezuela’s fields will not only need an overhaul but also require careful operational management and oversight long into the future,” adding that the country’s extra-heavy crude would remain a major source of CO₂.

Restoring production near Venezuela’s former peak of almost 4 million barrels per day could require about $100 billion over the next decade. And the true condition of the infrastructure may remain hidden until output increases. As Nash warned, “You’re not going to find out how bad things are until you ramp up production.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 20:30

Three Takeaways From Trump's Seizure Of A Russian-Flagged Tanker In The Atlantic

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The overarching trend is that the US is militarily reasserting its historical “sphere of influence” over the Americas, and enforcing the maritime component of “Fortress America” is so important for Trump 2.0 that it’s willing to rubbish the “rules-based order” over it and even risk an accidental war with Russia.

The Russian-flagged Marinera tanker was just seized by the US in the Atlantic. It was earlier named the Bella 1 and is under US sanctions due to connections to Hezbollah. It sailed under the Guyanese flag from Iran to Venezuela and attempted to break the US’ blockade. It failed, turned around, changed its name to the Marinera, and received a temporary permit to sail under the Russian flag before being seized. Russian then demanded that its citizens on board be treated humanely and returned home.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth posted that “The blockade of sanctioned and illicit Venezuelan oil remains in FULL EFFECT — anywhere in the world.” This preceded Attorney General Pam Bondi threatening that criminal charges might be pursued against the crew. Her tweet and Hegseth’s other one about how the US will only permit “legitimate and lawful” energy commerce with Venezuela shows that it’s once again assuming so-called “police” functions. Here are three takeaways from this incident:

1. The US Is Surprisingly Nonchalant About An Accidental War With Russia

It was brazen even by the US’ standards to seize a Russian-flagged tanker, especially after Western media reported that Russia had dispatched ships and a submarine to escort it, which Russia didn’t confirm and none were nearby during the seizure. Nevertheless, Trump 2.0 calculated that there’d be no retaliation despite the deputy chairman of Russia’s parliamentary defense committee warning that “any attack on our carriers can be regarded as an attack on our territory, even if the ship is under a foreign flag.”

This incident interestingly occurred in parallel with the US backing European ceasefire guarantees for Ukraine that include British and French commitments to deploy troops there during that time even though Russia has repeatedly warned that they’d be legitimate targets. Quite clearly, the US is now surprisingly nonchalant about an accidental war with Russia, whether over seizing one of its flagged ships at sea or over NATO allies getting killed in Ukraine. This observation won’t be lost on Russia.

2. “Fortress America” Also Includes An Important Maritime Component

The goal of restoring the US’ unipolar hegemony over the Americas, which is described as the highest regional priority in its new National Security Strategy, can be referred to as building “Fortress America”. This isn’t being pursued just for reasons of prestige but also pragmatism in the sense of enabling the US to survive and even thrive if it’s ever expelled from the Eastern Hemisphere or decides to retreat from there since control over the hemisphere’s resources and markets would all but ensure this outcome.

As can be seen by this incident as well as Hegseth’s and Bondi’s posts about it, there’s also an important maritime component related to controlling the export of oil from Venezuela, which has the world’s largest reserves. This can only be achieved by maintaining the unilateral blockade and seizing all ships that violate it, both on law enforcement pretexts that embody the concept of extraterritoriality. Without this maritime component, “Fortress America” could never truly be built, but it’s not without some costs.

3. The US Is Dismantling The “Rules-Based Order” That It Built Over The Decades

The abovementioned point segues into the last one about how the US’ militarily enforced extraterritoriality vis-à-vis Venezuela dismantles the “rules-based order” that it built over the decades for maintaining its unipolar hegemony over the world after the end of the Old Cold War. This violates the international laws that the US used to selectively police across the world according to its arbitrary standards. Instead of international ones, the US is now policing its own, but also in pursuit of hegemony.

International law has increasingly become illusory due to the UN’s innate dysfunction, which is related to the deadlock among the UNSC’s five permanent members, with one usually vetoing significant proposals from the others. Even so, if the Great Powers abided by it in their ties with one another, then there’d be more predictability and less risk of war by miscalculation. The US is no longer interested in even that as proven by this incident, however, since building “Fortress America” now takes precedence over all else.

The trend connecting the three aforementioned takeaways is that the US is militantly reasserting its historical “sphere of influence” over the Americas, and this is so important for Trump 2.0 that it’s willing to rubbish the “rules-based order” over it and even risk an accidental war with Russia. The maritime component off of Venezuela’s Caribbean coast that’s been built before all else is justified by the administration as a law enforcement operation that prioritizes domestic laws over international ones.

Since this is taking place on the other side of the world where neither half of the Sino-Russo Entente has any military bases, they can’t challenge this even through indirect means, unlike how the US challenged Russia’s reassertion of its own historical “sphere of influence” in Ukraine through the ongoing proxy war. This doesn’t mean that the US’ grand strategic goal of restoring its unipolar hegemony over the Americas will succeed, just that if it doesn’t, then it’ll be due to intra-hemispheric reasons and not external forces.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 20:00

Watch: Conservative Honduran Lawmaker Narrowly Survives Bomb Hurled At Her In National Congress

A shocking scene played out in a Latin American country Thursday, but this time it's not Venezuela, but nearby Honduras.

A Honduran legislator from the country's conservative National Party of president-elect Nasry Asfura was speaking to the press within the halls of the Honduran national congress, or just outside, when suddenly an explosive device was thrown, detonating just behind her head. The disturbing incident, which she survived, was filmed given the many cameras around at the time of the attack.

Opposition legislator Gladis Aurora Lopez was injured by an explosive device hurled at her in the Congress building.

Deputies had been summoned to meet, and the attack victim - Gladis Aurora López - collapsed to the floor during the explosion, her jacket left torn apart.

Witnesses immediately rushed her to begin giving her medical attention, and authorities in a later update announced that her injuries were thankfully not life-threatening.

Lawmakers had gathered to debate a proposal from LIBRE calling for an election recount, despite electoral officials having already declared a winner in December.

Quickly after, accusations and threats are flying, threatening to unleash severe infighting or instability among rival political factions.

Tomás Zambrano, head of the National Party’s congressional delegation, charged the outgoing governing leftist Liberty and Refoundation Party, known as LIBRE, with being behind the incident.

Zambrano denounced the incident as nothing less than attack on the National Party, and it comes at a sensitive moment, where a fiercely contested presidential election at the end of November led to a vote count that dragged on for weeks and ended in a disputed result.

The National Party’s candidate, Nasry Asfura, was eventually proclaimed the victor nearly a month later.

"Today I speak not as a representative, but as a Honduran," a fellow conservative deputy, Antonio Cesar Rivera, later stated on social media. "I condemn with absolute firmness the cowardly attack against Gladis Aurora Lopez and I stand in solidarity with her."

Honduran National Party lawmaker Gladis Aurora López Calderón was injured after far-left protesters hurled an explosive device at her outside the National Congress. pic.twitter.com/YDGuvfUUzQ

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) January 9, 2026

He linked the political violence to attacks on the Right, accusing LIBRE groups of attacking him, too. "Those who promote hatred and intimidation are attacking democracy," he wrote.

It's as yet unclear what an ongoing police investigation has uncovered, or just who the culprit was. But clearly the country's congressional building needs to quickly beef up its security protocol. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 19:30

Prosecutor Calls Newsom 'King Of Fraud' For Oversight Failures

Authored by Dave Mason via The Center Square,

U.S. First Assistant Attorney Bill Essayli Thursday called California Gov. Gavin Newsom “the king of fraud,” accusing him of a lack of oversight on spending to address homelessness.

FILE - California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a press conference in Los Angeles, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer, File)

Essayli made the comments on the “Fox and Friends” telecast, during which he discussed the federal fraud charges that were filed in October against real estate executives Steven Taylor and Cody Holmes for allegedly misusing grant money meant for homeless housing.

Holmes, 31, of Beverly Hills was charged with mail fraud charge that was allegedly linked to millions of dollars in grant money that the state paid Shangri-La Industries to purchase, build and operate homeless housing in Thousand Oaks, just north of Los Angeles. Holmes was Shangri-La’s chief financial officer.

Taylor, 44, of Brentwood, was charged with seven counts of bank fraud, one count of aggravated identity theft and one count of money laundering.

Essayli Thursday said the charges are the “tip of the iceberg” in an investigation he launched with a task force in April. He said more charges would be coming, probably later this month.

The state spent $24 billion in the last five years to address homelessness and can’t account for where the money went, Essayli said on “Fox and Friends.”

President Donald Trump on Tuesday on X said,  “California, under Governor Gavin Newscum, is more corrupt than Minnesota, if that’s possible??? The Fraud investigation of California has begun.”

Newsom’s press office fired back on X. It called Trump a liar and noted Newsom has “BLOCKED $125 billion in fraud, arrested criminal parasites leaching off of taxpayers, and protected taxpayers from the exact kind of scam artists Trump celebrates, excuses, and pardons.”

The Center Square reached out Thursday afternoon to the governor’s office, but did not get a response.

When The Center Square asked the White House Thursday about Newsom, the press office pointed to Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s comments during a press briefing on Wednesday. Leavitt told reporters that Trump has directed all agencies to look at federal spending programs “in not just Minnesota, but also in the state of California, to identify fraud and to prosecute to the fullest extent of the law, all those who have committed it.”

The Center Square also reached out to the U.S. Department of Justice, but spokesperson Ciaran McEvoy said the DOJ had no additional comment.

But two Republican legislators in Sacramento Thursday shared their views about Newsom with The Center Square.

“When you talk about the amounts of billions of dollars the governor’s spent in homelessness, he could almost buy a home for every homeless person,” state Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Huntington Beach, told The Center Square at the Capitol after Newsom’s final State of the State address.

“There’s no question there is waste in there, and certainly, we need to look to see if there’s fraud and abuse,” Strickland said. “So I welcome the investigation, because we need to maximize every dollar that comes into the state coffers.”

Strickland stressed he wants to learn the truth.

“Those who abused the power and those who wasted dollars and abused tax dollars should be prosecuted,” he said. “Then we should root out waste, because every dollar that is wasted is a dollar that we take from a hard-working citizen who is just trying to make it.

“In California right now, we have an affordability crisis and these are precious dollars, and by Gov. Newsom’s own admission, revenues are up, so California doesn’t have a revenue problem,” Strickland said. “It has a wasteful spending problem.”

Izzy Swindler, a spokesperson for Assemblymember Tom Lackey, said the Palmdale Republican has always supported oversight on spending.

“It is his belief that we should be accountable to our dollars and be able to track the results that come from the taxpayer funded programs,” Swindler said, answering The Center Square’s questions by email. “Accountability should always be at the forefront of discussions. Especially when we are referring to homelessness programs that have been allocated billions of dollars over the past few years.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 19:00

Residential Electricity Prices Are Surging Even More

We have been warning about this for months...

In one year, this will be the most popular chart on this site pic.twitter.com/h93gWXMoNL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 11, 2025

... and months....

between exploding electricity bills and lack of jobs for grads, a new luddite revolution is coming - they will be burning down data centers within a year

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 25, 2025

... and now that even the deep state spies at the WaPo finally catching on...

5 months later https://t.co/reP3n5lhfp pic.twitter.com/5Lg5pPiXl4

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 6, 2026

... the future has finally caught up to the present,

As Bloomberg warns, rising retail electricity prices have become a political issue in several US states, especially in PJM, the Mid-Atlantic regional grid, which as we discussed recently, is woefully under-energized.

"eight out of the 13 US regional power markets are already at or below critical spare capacity levels." - Goldman https://t.co/YYAGUukfwR pic.twitter.com/eU4XPFAMrp

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 23, 2025

As Bloomberg says, paraphrasing us 5 months ago, "Power prices emerged as a a major campaign theme in off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia in 2025, and will play a big role in 2026's upcoming national midterms and state elections."

This is just the start: as we discussed over a month ago, data center power demand could reach 106 GW in 2035, For context, the US had about 25 GW of operating data centers in 2024 (according to Bloom Energy). Which means that unless all these data centers somehow find behind the meter sources of collocated power, electric bills will, pardon the pun, go nuclear. 

A July report from the Department of Energy estimated an additional 100 GW of new peak capacity is needed by 2030, of which 50 GW is attributable to data centers. Those facilities could account for as much as 12% of peak demand by 2028, according to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Bloomberg's conclusion: "Affordability politics have mixed implications for climate (renewables are cheap, but some programs expensive), and for data centers, which take the blame for rising prices."

Our question: how long before Trump imposes price caps/controls on utilities ahead of the midterms (similar to those at PJM, which were the only thing that prevented a 60% spike in prices) to keep electric bills low, and sends IPP stocks freefalling.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 18:30

"The Giant Sucking Sound": Exodus From California Continues For Taxpayers & Businesses

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

During the 1992 Presidential Debate, independent candidate Ross Perot famously warned that “there will be a giant sucking sound going south” due to the cheaper Mexican labor and lower regulatory demands on businesses. That sound is being heard again, but this time it is coming from California, which is virtually chasing taxpayers and companies out of the state with a massive state deficit, rising taxes, crippling regulations, and wasteful programs.

Recently, Gavin Newsom boasted, “California isn’t just keeping pace with the world — we’re setting the pace.”

Recent data shows he is right.

There is a record number of U-Hauls fleeing the state — more than any other state. Indeed, the only thing harder to find than a wealthy taxpayer in California appears to be a U-Haul.

According to U-Haul’s data, the state is again leading blue states in the exodus. The Washington Post noted this week that “California came in last. Massachusetts, New York, Illinois and New Jersey rounded out the bottom five. Of the bottom 10, seven voted blue in the last election.” Conversely, “nine of the top 10 growth states voted red in the last presidential election,” with Texas again leading the growth states.

The Post wrote that the conclusions are inescapable: “People want to live in pro-growth, low-tax states, while the biggest losers tend to be places with big governments and high taxes.”

What is most striking is how Democratic politicians and many voters are simply defying the data and logic. Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, who represents part of Silicon Valley, recently mocked billionaires moving to escape a planned wealth tax. Some of us have criticized the tax as perfectly moronic for a state with the highest tax burden, soaring deficit, and shrinking tax base.

The “2026 Billionaires Tax Act” would impose a one-time 5% tax on individual wealth exceeding $1 billion. While technically using 2026 wealth figures, it would apply to billionaires who resided in California in 2025. So you cannot hope to flee… at least with your wealth intact. It is a penalty for those who stay too long hoping that rational minds would prevail in California.

Yet, Rep. Khanna mocked his own constituents planning to flee the state, quoting FDR in saying ‘I will miss them very much.”

Indeed, you will. 

Democrats continue to act as if wealthy citizens are a type of captive audience. They are expected to be voluntary prey in a canned hunt for wealthy taxpayers. Many have chosen to take their money and businesses elsewhere.

As I discuss in my forthcoming book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, there is a common myth that the top five percent of this country do not “pay their fair share.” However, putting that debate aside, the question is whether it will produce more revenue than it costs the state in the long run. As these politicians campaign on clipping the “fat cats” who are not paying their fair share, many are likely to follow the exodus to lower tax states with greater fiscal discipline.

From New York to California, Democrats are pitching new programs from free buses to state-run stores to reparations as their tax bases contract. San Francisco recently approved the reparations plan that could give up to $5 million to qualified residents. The city faces a billion-dollar deficit, yet it continues to assume greater debt obligations.

Once again, denying basic economics will only lead to a rude awakening when these leaders, to quote Margaret Thatcher, “run out of other people’s money.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 18:05

Trump Says US Will Begin Strikes On Cartels In Mexico

Authored by Joseph Lord and Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump announced in an interview aired Jan. 8 that the United States would begin launching strikes on cartels in Mexico.

“We knocked out 97 percent of the drugs coming in by water, and we are going to start now hitting land with regard with the cartels,” Trump told Sean Hannity from Fox News.

“The cartels are running Mexico. It’s very sad to watch and see what’s happened to that country.

“They’re killing 250,000, 300,000 in our country every single year.”

The announcement comes just five days after Trump ordered an operation to capture and remove Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to the United States to face criminal charges, including narco-terrorism.

Trump gave a warning to several Latin American countries following the U.S. strike on Venezuela and Maduro’s capture.

The president also warned Mexico on Sunday that it needs to “get its act together,” referring to drug cartels operating in the country.

“You have to do something with Mexico,” Trump told reporters during his trip back to Washington from Florida. “We’re going to have to do something. We’d love Mexico to do it; they’re capable of doing it, but unfortunately, the cartels are very strong in Mexico.”

Trump said that he had spoken to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on a number of occasions, saying that the United States has offered to send troops into her country. However, he described her as “afraid” and that the “cartels are running Mexico,” not her

Mexico has repeatedly opposed U.S. proposals to fight drug cartels in the country.

“We categorically reject intervention in the internal affairs of other countries,” Sheinbaum said during her daily morning press conference on Monday. “The history of Latin America is clear and compelling: Intervention has never brought democracy, never generated well-being, nor lasting stability.”

Trump’s administration has intensified anti-cartel measures, including designating Mexican syndicates as terrorist organizations, a step he announced years ago. Officials say sea-based trafficking has been nearly halted, prompting a pivot to land operations.

Trump has previously said no formal war declaration is necessary.

“I think we’re just going to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country,” Trump said on Oct. 23, 2025.

U.S. officials have linked cartels to tens of thousands of American overdose deaths annually. Trump has criticized Sheinbaum for declining U.S. offers to dismantle the cartels.

Trump did not give a timeline for land strikes against cartels.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 17:15

Rio Tinto And Glencore In Talks To Form World's Largest Mining Company With $200 Billion Valuation

Are we on the cusp of an M&A boom in metals and commodities, with prices continuing to soar? Or are deals just easier to get through under a new administration?

Regardless, Rio Tinto and Glencore have reopened merger talks that could create the world’s largest mining company, with a combined valuation exceeding $200 billion — more than a year after earlier negotiations collapsed, according to Yahoo.

The companies confirmed Thursday that they are discussing various deal structures, including an all-share takeover covering part or all of Glencore’s business. The market reacted swiftly: Glencore shares jumped about 10% in London, while Rio slipped more than 2%.

If completed, the transaction would eclipse any previous mining merger and create a giant capable of rivaling BHP. Copper is the central prize. With prices recently surging above $13,000 a ton amid supply disruptions and tariff fears, mining executives increasingly see copper as the industry’s most strategic asset. “It makes a lot of sense,” said Ben Cleary of Tribeca Investment Partners. “It’s the one big deliverable mining deal out there.”

Yahoo writes that for Rio, absorbing Glencore would sharply expand copper output and provide access to prized assets such as Chile’s Collahuasi mine. The move would also help reduce dependence on iron ore as China’s construction boom fades.

Although analysts have questioned whether Rio would accept Glencore’s large coal business, people familiar with the talks say Rio is now open to keeping it — at least initially — and could divest later. No final structure has been agreed.

The renewed talks follow major changes at both firms. Rio has a new chief executive, Simon Trott, who has emphasized cost discipline and simplification, while Glencore has highlighted plans to nearly double copper production over the next decade. In private, Glencore CEO Gary Nagle has described a tie-up with Rio as the most logical deal in the sector.

“This is Simon’s first test as CEO and I would expect his disciplined approach to be carried through to M&A,” said John Ayoub of Wilson Asset Management.

The discussions come amid a broader wave of consolidation after Anglo American’s deal for Teck Resources and earlier takeover interest from BHP. Under UK rules, Rio must decide by Feb. 5 whether to proceed or step back for six months.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 14:25

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

A brief excerpt:

During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
...
Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q3 2025, mortgage debt increased $108 billion, unchanged from $108 billion in Q2. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

Micro Greenland Lender Whipsaws As Trump Headlines Ignite Investor Frenzy

Shares of a Nuuk-based commercial bank, founded in 1967 to serve Greenland's private and corporate customers, have surged sharply as investors speculate that President Trump's "Donroe Doctrine" to secure the Western Hemisphere could ultimately involve acquiring Greenland.

The 42% rally in Bank of Greenland shares this year, which has since retraced roughly 20% of those gains, has been entirely headline-driven, linked to the Trump administration's efforts to acquire the mineral-rich, strategically located territory in North America, rather than by fundamentals.

Per Hansen, an investment economist at Nordnet Bank AB, said investors were piling into Bank of Greenland shares on the OMX Copenhagen Mid Cap Index, whose market capitalization stands at around 1.91 billion kroner ($298 million).

"Greenland could see massive investment," Hansen said. "I do not know, and investors do not know, what will happen, but it might happen. More investment means more business buzz."

In other words, investors are buying Bank of Greenland shares first and asking questions later.

Nuuk, Greenland

Overnight, Reuters reported that the Trump administration has considered sending lump-sum payments of up to $100,000 to Greenlanders in exchange for a vote to secede from Denmark and join the United States.

Trump has cited several reasons for acquiring Greenland, including its mineral wealth for military applications and the need for the Western Hemisphere to fall under Washington's geopolitical influence.

Hmm. 

The simple diplomatic solution is Barron Trump marries Princess Isabella of Denmark and Greenland is given to America as dowry payment pic.twitter.com/fhs3b6IDZG

— miss white (@cinecitta2030) January 7, 2026

The Bank of Greenland stock frenzy also follows recent U.S. regime-change operations in Venezuela that removed socialist leader Nicolás Maduro roughly a week ago, reinforcing perceptions of a more interventionist U.S. posture in the Western Hemisphere aimed at pushing China and Russia out of the region and dismantling socialist and Marxist regimes seen as plundering the wealth of nations. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 14:05

Seattle Judge Blocks Health Department From Rejecting Head Start Grants With DEI Terms

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) must stop requiring that grant applications not include terms related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), including the term “pregnant people,” under a new order from a federal judge.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delivers remarks during an event in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 16, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

They are also enjoined from firing any more Office of Head Start employees and closing regional offices.

HHS has said it does not comment on litigation.

The decision “ensures that Head Start providers can provide early education to children from diverse communities and backgrounds without the constant threat of being punished simply for following the requirements of the law,” Jennie Mauer, executive director of the Wisconsin Head Start Association, said in a statement.

Head Start is a federally funded program that provides care across some 17,711 centers to about 750,000 children from low-income families.

The lawsuit was filed by the American Civil Liberties Union over several actions taken by HHS in response to President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20, 2025, executive order banning “diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility“ and the “indoctrination of gender ideology.”

HHS, in an updated policy on grants, required applicants to certify they would not operate programs that advance DEI or discriminatory ideology.

According to court filings, HHS later returned applications with instructions to remove certain terms, including the terms “pregnant people,” “chestfeeding,” and “diversity.”

HHS also said that a Head Start center on an American Indian reservation in Washington state should remove eligibility criteria, which prioritized children from Indian families.

“Based on these instructions from the Office of Head Start, the program does not know what criteria it is supposed to use to determine enrollment for the program going forward,” Joel Ryan, executive director of the Washington State Association of Head Start and Early Childhood Assistance and Education Program, said in a filing.

The defendants told Martinez that they withdrew the certification requirement, making that challenge moot, and that plaintiffs had not shown the requirement, the mandated removal of DEI terms, and layoffs at the Office of Head Start caused the plaintiffs harm.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 13:25

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.

The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.5 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.3 trillion.
...
Household debt increased 4.1 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  
Net worth increased $6.1 trillion in Q3.  As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is still below the peak in 2021.
This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q3 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 71.6% - down from 72.0% in Q2, 2025

Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Mortgage debt increased by $108 billion in Q3.

Mortgage debt is up $2.99 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 43.9% - down from Q2 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q3 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

"Screwing Us Over... Again": Shale Producers Furious Over Trump's Venezuela Plan To Lower Crude Prices

President Trump is meeting with oil bosses on Friday, but shale producers aren't necessarily happy about the development of driving crude prices down via expanding into Venezuela. 

In fact, independent U.S. drillers are warning President Donald Trump that his push to revive Venezuela’s oil industry — and drive prices lower — could cripple American production, according to FT.

Many shale leaders, excluded from that meeting, say the White House is abandoning domestic producers by opening the door to a flood of Venezuelan crude. “We’re talking about this administration screwing us over again,” one senior executive said, calling the strategy “against American producers.” Another warned: “If the US government starts providing guarantees to oil companies to produce or grow oil production in Venezuela I’m going to be . . . pissed.”

The anger is deep in Texas, where many executives backed Trump’s return and now describe the shift as a “betrayal.”

Kirk Edwards, chief executive of Latigo Petroleum, said:

“To me, the signal from the administration is: we’d rather spend our American money on propping up a Venezuelan oil business than supporting our current independent businesses.”

FT writes that pressure is already building. The number of active U.S. rigs has fallen to 412, down 15% in a year, and the Energy Information Administration expects U.S. output to drop in 2026 — the first annual decline since the pandemic. With West Texas Intermediate below $56 a barrel and many shale producers needing prices above $60 to break even, the industry is under strain.

Meanwhile, new supply risks loom. OPEC producers are adding output, and Trump has made clear he wants cheaper oil and gasoline as the midterms approach. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Venezuela’s production could jump 50% within a year. “I think you’ll see more downward pressure on the price of gasoline,” he told Fox News.

Executives say Wright is now “just toeing the party line,” and the frustration ultimately lands on Trump. “He’s definitely not pro oil as far as independent oil companies’ survival and vibrancy,” one Midland executive said. “The message will have to come in US production declining.”

Markets are reacting. Shares of Diamondback Energy, APA Corp and Devon Energy each fell as much as 9% this week. “Somebody’s looking at these stocks today going, why would I own this if in a few years, they’re going to be competing against Venezuela for oil, for our refineries in the United States?” Edwards said.

Outrage intensified after Trump suggested taxpayers could help reimburse companies investing in Venezuela. “We should not subsidise the big companies in trying to retool Venezuela’s infrastructure and develop their reserves for them,” another shale executive said, adding Trump does not “give a damn if they went bankrupt” and is content to see them “drill their way into oblivion.”

Analysts say the divide favors the largest firms. “All of this points to the advantage of being larger,” said Maynard Holt of Veriten. “Because many of the opportunities that are coming — whether it’s Venezuela or Algeria or some other complicated place — you will be able to consider them more seriously the larger you are.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 12:45

The Price Of Trump's "Greenland New Deal": $100,000 Per Person

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

President Trump has called for a 50% increase of the US defense budget, to $1.5 trillion by next year. This should suffice to build a “Dream Military.” The president argues this is required to keep the US safe and secure, but will it keep his own political position safe? Trump’s new military focus is creating more friction in Congress, as well as between the US and its allies.

Trump argued that tariff revenues can “easily” pay for a bigger defense budget, but the CBO has estimated that tariff revenues will only generate about half of the president’s planned increase in military expenditures. And that assumes these revenues will keep flowing. Trump could face a setback on that front as early as today (see below).

Even if tariff revenues keep coming in, Trump’s plans could renew concerns about the sustainability of the US’ finances. Cuts in other parts of government might be an option on paper, but Trump does need congressional support for this. And the House of Representatives has just passed legislation on a spending bill that waters down many of Trump’s budget cuts – including restoring Obamacare subsidies for three years – as lawmakers seek to avoid another shutdown by the end of the month.

In international political circles, there is less alarm about the US’ fiscal prudence than there are concerns about what the president may want to use such an expanded military apparatus for. Despite his platform of noninterventionism, Trump has already been more active on the world stage than during his first term.

Yesterday, the US president suggested that military operations in Venezuela – or the wider region? – are not over after the quick capture of President Maduro last weekend: “we’ve knocked out 97% of the drugs coming in by water, and we are going to start now hitting the land.”

Congress is pushing back against further strikes. Five Republican senators joined with the Democrats to advance a bill that would limit Trump’s ability to take further military action in Venezuela without congressional approval.

However, for the war powers resolution to have any effect, it must first pass a final vote in Senate and it must then still pass the House – and with support from more than a handful of Republicans: President Trump could veto the bill unless it gets a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress. More importantly, the bill focuses on military operations in Venezuela.

That still leaves countries like Mexico, which “is being run by cartels” according to Trump, or Colombia at risk. Several senators have said they plan to introduce similar resolutions for other countries (e.g., Greenland, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and Nigeria). However, these have not been included in the current resolution due to Senate rules requiring country-specific legislation.

And then there is the Arctic. At the start of this week, Trump reiterated his plans to acquire Greenland, and he has since not let go of the idea. The US president may prefer to buy the country. According to Reuters’ sources, US officials have discussed lump sum payments of $10,000 to $100,000 per Greenlander in order to convince them to become part of the United States. However, that’s just one plan, and Trump has not ruled out military means to get what he wants.

"with a population of only around 50,000, one might imagine a thought experiment where, for the low, low price of $50 billion, Trump offers every Greenlander $1 million in exchange for their country. That might prove more attractive." - Rabobank

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 6, 2026

European deterrence is limited. In fact, the EU must be careful not to alienate the country that they still need to safeguard their own security. Zelenskyy had just claimed an agreement on security guarantees, which was ready for finalization with the US president, but Russia has already rejected a European peacekeeping force in the country –a key part of the proposal– as an immediate threat to Russian security.

So, the EU may still try to change Trump’s mind through diplomacy. Denmark has already agreed to give the US military extensive access to Greenland. Perhaps a buildup of EU military presence in the Arctic could reassure the US that Europe can help to keep the region safe. But that would be another drain on the EU’s limited resources, and it remains to be seen whether this is enough to convince the US president. Canada will probably be watching this space anxiously too.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 12:25

Trump Cancels 2nd Wave Of Strikes On 'Cooperative' Venezuela - Political Prisoners Freed

The post-Maduro Venezuelan government has begun releasing political prisoners as a gesture of 'good will' to the United States, signaling that the new Delcy Rodriguez government is ready to play nice with Trump. There are reasons to believe that this former Maduro number two (as his vice president) had cooperated with the CIA to hand the longtime Venezuelan president and socialist strongman over to invading American forces during last Friday night's raid.

President Trump said early Friday that he had cancelled a "previously expected" second wave of attacks on the Latin American country as Caracas is now cooperating with the US. It must be recalled that soon after the attack which ousted Maduro and brought him into US custody, Trump had warned, "We are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so. He added: "We actually assumed that a second wave would be necessary, but now it’s probably not." Presumably this meant cartel targets, but this brings up the question: where are all the 'narco-terrorists' and did they magically disappear now that Maduro was taken out?

via AP

In a Friday Truth Social post, the president emphasized the White House and new Caracas authorities are "working well together, especially as it pertains to rebuilding, in a much bigger, better, and more modern form, their oil and gas infrastructure."

"Because of this cooperation, I have cancelled the previously expected second Wave of Attacks, which looks like it will not be needed, however, all ships will stay in place for safety and security purposes," he added.

Trump confirmed that the government is busy "releasing large numbers of political prisoners as a sign of ‘Seeking Peace,'" adding, "This is a very important and smart gesture." Local news footage also appeared to verify this - a longtime demand of Washington and its allies in Europe.

AFP reports: Venezuela begins releasing a "large number" of political prisoners, including several foreigners, in an apparent concession to the United States after its ouster of ruler Nicolas Maduro

Venezuela begins releasing a "large number" of political prisoners, including several foreigners, in an apparent concession to the United States after its ouster of ruler Nicolas Madurohttps://t.co/EWfcPTLkzq pic.twitter.com/LZtPaZRgA1

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) January 9, 2026

The head of the country's National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, announced the release of a "significant number" of political prisoners, which is being taken to mean by outside observers that this is most, if not all, political prisoners which the US has demanded the release of.

One prominent name among those reportedly freed is the following:

Rocío San Miguel, a vocal critic of Maduro and a defense expert, was the first prisoner confirmed to be freed. Her family told the New York Times that she was taken to the Spanish embassy in Caracas.

Arrested in 2024, she was accused of being involved in a plot to kill the then-president and faced charges of treason, conspiracy and terrorism. Her arrest shocked human rights activists and, because her whereabouts were unknown, was labelled as potential "enforced disappearance" by the UN Human Rights Office.

As for Trump's claim that he has called off a 'second strike' - there's as yet no real evidence that the Pentagon was actually preparing such a new offensive, but heavy US assets are certainly still in the region and in regional waters. Trump could be bluffing on this, and very likely is, in order to keep Caracas on edge and cooperative.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 12:05

GM Cuts EV Exposure After Policy Shift, Takes $6B Charge

Imagine all of the malinvestment that took place in autos, on EVs, thank to the government distorting markets and forcing EV adoption when genuine demand may not have been robust. Now, we're seeing the consequences of returning to a freer market.

General Motors will record a $6 billion charge after scaling back several electric-vehicle projects, reflecting both weaker demand and the impact of new federal policies under President Donald Trump, according to Reuters.

Most of the charge — $4.2 billion in cash — stems from terminating contracts and compensating suppliers that had prepared for higher EV production. GM said the charge will appear as a special item in its fourth-quarter earnings. Additional costs are expected in 2026 but will be smaller than the current year’s EV-related charges.

Despite the pullback, the company said its U.S. lineup of about a dozen EVs remains intact: “We plan to continue to make these models available to consumers.”

GM’s announcement follows Ford’s much larger move in December, when it revealed a $19.5 billion writedown after canceling several EV programs. Ford CEO Jim Farley said at the time: “When the market really changed over the last couple of months, that was really the impetus for us to make the call.”

Automakers across the industry began retreating from aggressive EV expansion last summer after a sweeping Trump tax and spending package and the elimination on September 30 of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which triggered a sharp drop in sales. GM’s EV deliveries fell 43% in the fourth quarter, after customers had rushed purchases before the credit expired.

Reuters writes that while GM once pledged to phase out gasoline vehicles by 2035, analysts have since lowered long-term EV forecasts. GM CEO Mary Barra has said the company will adjust based on customer demand.

The company has already slowed EV operations: halting battery production at two joint-venture plants, cutting shifts at its Detroit EV factory, and repurposing a planned Michigan EV facility to build gas-powered pickups and the Cadillac Escalade. GM also disclosed a separate $1.1 billion charge tied to restructuring its China joint venture.

Some analysts question GM’s heavy focus on fully electric vehicles. CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson warned: "GM’s lack of hybrid exposure could partially reverse recent market share gains," citing surging hybrid demand.

Industrywide, EV sales growth has slowed dramatically. Research firm Omdia reported U.S. EV sales rose just 1.2% in 2025, and Edmunds projects EVs will represent about 6% of U.S. vehicle sales in 2026, down from 7.4% last year.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 10:40

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

A brief excerpt:

Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data for September and October today, but we are still missing November data.
...
The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were down 7.8% in October compared to October 2024.

Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 0.7% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 7.0% YTD and multi-family up 18.0% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

UMich Confidence Rebounds In January Off Record Lows As Tariff Fears Abate

Having ended 2025 at the lowest Current Conditions Sentiment levels in, well, ever... expectations for preliminary January data were for a modest rebound... and it did (very modestly).

• The preliminary January sentiment index climbed to 54 from 52.9 in December, according to the University of Michigan (better than the 53.5 expected).

• The expectations index rose to a five-month high of 55. The survey reflected improvements in both the short- and long-term economic outlooks.

• The current conditions gauge climbed to a three-month high after slipping to a record-low in December. Consumers’ perception of their current financial situation improved in January, while expectations declined.

Source: Bloomberg

Short-term inflation expectations were flat while longer-term rebounded modestly...

Source: Bloomberg

Democrats appear to be slowly but surely realizing all the Trump tariff fears projected up on them were just wrong. Republicans appear to be primed for deflation - but the gap remains huge (1% vs 5%)...

Source: Bloomberg

On a longer term basis, Democrats really abandoned their fears... Rather oddly, all of the political cohorts saw longer-term inflation expectations lower BUT overall inflation expectations rose on the month?

Source: Bloomberg

If Democrats are right, shit's about to get real...

Source: Bloomberg

The always unbiased UMich commentary makes sure to balance the positives of an admission that tariffs fears tumbled with some subjective view of the economy (as sentiment improved)

“Although consumers’ worries about tariffs appear to be gradually receding, they remain guarded about the overall strength of business conditions and labor markets,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

The Michigan survey showed consumer views on the labor market remain soft, with nearly two-thirds expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead. Concerns about joblessness have been worse among higher-educated and higher-income Americans than for other consumers.

UMich also makes a point of noting that more than 90% of interviews for this release were collected prior to the capture of Maduro in Venezuela.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 10:17

Happening Today: Trump Meeting With US Oil Execs From Exxon, Shell, Others, To Discuss Venezuela

President Trump is convening top oil executives at the White House on Friday as part of a push to steer U.S. companies toward investing in Venezuela’s struggling oil industry, CBS reported today.

Leaders from Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips, Continental, Halliburton, HKN, Valero, Marathon, Shell, Trafigura, Vitol Americas, Repsol, Eni, Aspect Holdings, Tallgrass, Raisa Energy and Hilcorp are expected to attend, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. Wright has already held separate talks with several executives earlier in the week.

According to the White House, the discussions will center on “investment opportunities that will restore Venezuelan oil infrastructure.”

Trump has argued that Venezuela’s vast oil reserves could help revive its economy while also benefiting U.S. consumers and energy companies. In a recent interview, he said he wants companies to commit at least $100 billion to “rebuild the whole oil infrastructure” in the country.

The administration has tightened pressure on Venezuela through a new oil “quarantine,” including the seizure of another tanker Friday, the fifth such action in recent weeks. Rubio said the strategy gives the U.S. “tremendous leverage” and that Washington plans to sell up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned crude on the open market, with the proceeds under U.S. control.

Chevron remains the only major U.S. oil producer still operating in Venezuela after the industry was nationalized under Hugo Chávez, and it is unclear how quickly other firms would move in. Analysts caution that high costs, political uncertainty and Venezuela’s history of asset seizures could slow new investment. Venezuelan crude is also heavy and more difficult to refine, though some Gulf Coast refineries are equipped to handle it.

Recall, we wrote Energy Sec. Chris Wright will be in Miami for the Goldman Sachs Energy, Clean Tech & Utilities Conference, a major industry gathering that will bring together executives from Chevron, ConocoPhillips and other producers. Chevron remains the only global oil supermajor maintaining operations inside Venezuela.

Bloomberg writes that despite Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven crude reserves, experts estimate restoring its oil system would require approximately $10 billion in investment every year for the next decade.

Industry participants say interest in the country is real, but the recent removal of President Nicolás Maduro alone is not enough to unlock capital. Companies want clarity on whether a durable government will emerge, whether contracts and the rule of law will be respected, and whether US political support for their presence in Venezuela will extend beyond Trump’s term in office.

Earlier this week we wrote that President Donald Trump said the US may subsidize American oil companies to help rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector, arguing the plan would strengthen Venezuela’s recovery and protect US economic interests after the removal of Nicolás Maduro.

In an interview with NBC News on Monday, Trump said US firms could have expanded operations in the country “up and running” in less than 18 months — a timeline that sharply conflicts with expert estimates that reconstruction could take a decade and cost more than $100 billion.

“I think we can do it in less time than that, but it’ll be a lot of money,” Trump said. “A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent and the oil companies will spend it, and then they’ll get reimbursed by us or through revenue.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 10:05

US Adds Only 50K Jobs In December, Missing Estimates, But Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.4%

Ahead of today's jobs report, expectations were that the NFP number would show another rebound from the terrible Sept/Oct prints, but remain muted (or else spark fears about reheating and an end to the Fed's easing cycle). Well, that's precisely what we got moments ago when the BLS reported that in December the US gained 50K jobs, a modest miss to estimates of 50K, but smack in the middle of JPM's sweet spot range of 35K-75K (as previewed earlier) which would be best for the market.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and the change for November was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined is 76,000 lower than previously reported. Notably, as shown in the chart below, the initial NFP print has now been revised lower in every single month of 2025.

While there was NFP print was on the weak side, there was a modest improvement in the unemployment rate, which dipped from a downward revised 4.5% (was 4.6% originally) to 4.4%, which still is the highest since 2021, save for Nov 2025. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men was 3.9%, adult women 3.9%, teenagers 15.7%, Whites 3.8%, Blacks 7.5%, Asians 3.6%, and Hispanics 4.9%.

Labor force participation dipped fractionally from 62.5% to 62.4%, in line with estimates. The employment-population ratio,  at 59.7%, was also unchanged in December. These measures have shown little change over the year.

While jobs came on the cool side, hourly earnings came slightly hot: rising 0.3% MoM, up from 0.2% in November (and in line with estimates), this translates to a 3.8% increase YoY, up from 3.6% and above the 3.6% expected.

Some more details from the report:

• The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks edged down to 2.3 million in December. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little over the month at 1.9 million but is up by 397,000 over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 26.0 percent of all unemployed people in December. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 5.3 million, changed little in December but is up by 980,000 over the year. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 6.2 million in December but is up by 684,000 over the year. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in December. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, decreased by 183,000 in December to 461,000. 

Taking a closer look at the Establishment survey, we find that employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. Payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025 (an average monthly gain of 49,000), less than the increase of 2.0 million in 2024 (an average monthly gain of 168,000). Here is the breakdown:

• Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in December (+27,000). Food services and drinking places added an average of 12,000 jobs per month in 2025, similar to the average increase of 11,000 jobs per month in 2024.
• Health care employment continued its upward trend in December (+21,000), with a gain of 16,000 jobs in hospitals. Health care employment rose by an average of 34,000 per month in 2025, less than the average monthly gain of 56,000 in 2024.
• In December, employment in social assistance continued to trend up (+17,000), mostly in individual and family services (+13,000). 
• Retail trade lost 25,000 jobs in December. Over the month, employment declined in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-19,000) and in food and beverage retailers (-9,000). Electronics and appliance retailers added 5,000 jobs. Retail  trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. 
• Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.) 
• Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; and other services.

And the visual breakdown:

Elsewhere, there were some notable improvements in other qualitative metrics we track, including the full/part-time breakdown, where last month's ugly push to Part-Time jobs was almost entirely reversed as full-time jobs rose 890K to 135.215MM, offset by a 740K plunge in part-time jobs -740K to 28.712MM...

... while the number of multiple jobholders slumped by 444K - the second biggest drop since Covid - to 8.848MM.

And one red flag: the number of native-born workers dropped by 656K to 132.6 million, while foreign-born workers rose by 310K to 32.426 million, a modest reversal of the trends observed in 2025.

Commenting on the data, TradeStation's head of market strategy, David Russell said that "the labor market has reached an equilibrium after a year of policy shocks. There are no red flags compelling the Fed to cut now. Inflation is a bigger factor on rates than employment, which focuses attention on next week’s CPI. Investors may see less impact from macro-level data in the next few months and more impact from company-level events like earnings."

Overall, this was a goldilocks report: neither too hot (with NFP missing) nor too cold (as unemp rate dropped), which leaves the Fed on autopilot and likely to cut at least 2 more times this year, absent any major changes.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/09/2026 - 10:00