Individual Economists

California Faces Fuel Disaster As Refineries And Gas Stations Shut Down

Zero Hedge -

California Faces Fuel Disaster As Refineries And Gas Stations Shut Down

The Democrat crusade to divert blame for the stagflation crisis triggered during the Biden Administration led them down a path of economic lies.  The central theme of their narrative was that corporations were "price gouging" consumers and inflation was actually a product of "corporate greed."  In reality, helicopter money and dollar devaluation during the pandemic triggered a massive consumer demand rush as well as shortages in a variety of goods and raw materials.

The profit margins in many of these industries were paper thin as their manufacturing and labor costs skyrocketed, yet Democrats tried to scapegoat them anyway.  The word "accountability" is not in the leftist vocabulary.

We are only now starting to witness the aftermath of the legislation and policies put in place by blue states as a means to control prices.  California under Governor Gavin Newsom may have staged its own economic demise (the final nail in the coffin) after laws were passed requiring even greater state interference into oil refineries and gas stations.

Gavin Newsom 's major refinery law, ABX2-1 (signed Oct 2024), gives the state power to mandate minimum fuel storage levels and control refinery maintenance to prevent price spikes, empowering the California Energy Commission (CEC) to stabilize supply. This builds on earlier efforts (like SB X1-2) creating an oil market watchdog (DPMO) to increase oversight, aiming to stop refiners from manipulating supply for profit, while also adding data reporting requirements for companies.

In response, companies are shutting down refinery operations in the state.

Lawmakers in California at both the state and federal levels are warning that refinery closures could push prices higher while leaving the state more dependent on foreign oil.  At the center of the warning is the planned shutdown of two major refineries: Valero’s Benicia facility and Phillips 66’s Los Angeles plant. Together, the closures would eliminate nearly 20% of California’s in-state refining capacity.

Experts suggest prices could go as high as $10-$12 per gallon as a result of the supply squeeze, spreading outside of CA to Arizona and Nevada. Republican lawmakers say that the loss of in-state production threatens not only consumer prices at the pump but also the state’s military readiness; a matter of national security. 

The refineries make jet fuel and diesel and gasoline for military bases across California.  California is home to more than 30 military bases, many of which rely on fuel refined in-state.  Gavin Newsom has mostly dismissed concerns as exaggeration, asserting that foreign shipments of fuel will fill the supply gap.  He argued in a recent statement:

“The claim that California policies pose a national security risk isn’t grounded in fact. The state has proactively engaged defense fuel customers throughout this energy transition, and no credible concerns have been raised about future fuel supply for the military. California is leading this transition responsibly while ensuring families have access to a safe, reliable, and affordable supply of transportation fuels..." 

California law, primarily through Senate Bill 445, also mandates that all single-walled Underground Storage Tanks (USTs) and piping must be permanently closed or replaced with compliant double-walled systems by December 31st, 2025.  The claim is that this will prevent leaks and environmental contamination, with significant fines for non-compliance.

The state created a program called "RUST" to supposedly help small businesses meet the deadline by providing subsidies to pay for new tanks.  However, many mom-and-pop gas stations are reporting that they never received any aid from the RUST program, even though they applied far in advance.  Hundreds of small business gas stations in CA are set to shut down in 2026.  A large number of them are rural and operate as the only gas stations for long stretches of highway.  

In October, the newly created Division of Petroleum Market Oversight released its first annual report meant to discover why CA gas prices are so high.  The report merely confirmed what was already known - CA prices are much higher than other states because of the differential in taxes and regulatory costs.  No concrete evidence of price gouging on the part of energy companies was found.

Blue states like CA have been increasingly subjecting their citizens to an experiment in artificial energy scarcity; reducing access to "fossil fuels" while raising taxes to force consumers into the electric car market.  All of this is being done in the name of stopping "man-made global warming", a problem which does not exist.  Newsom claims that he is trying to help CA citizens by lowering gas prices, but all of his actions are leading to a price explosion.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 18:05

Pentagon Fails Audit For 8th Consecutive Year

Zero Hedge -

Pentagon Fails Audit For 8th Consecutive Year

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

The Pentagon has failed to pass a full financial audit for the eighth year in a row.

Congress initially mandated annual independent audits across the Department of Defense in 2018. In that time, the department has failed to pass a single full audit.

The Department of Defense—also known as the Department of War—lists $4.65 trillion in assets and $4.72 trillion in liabilities through fiscal year 2025, which ended on Sept. 30. The Pentagon cannot account for its full balance sheet.

An audit report, finalized on Dec. 18 by the Department of Defense Office of Inspector General, identified 26 material weaknesses and two significant deficiencies in the Pentagon’s financial reporting practices for the year.

Auditors rendered adverse opinions in 10 of 28 subaudits contained within the overall Pentagon audit for the year. Adverse opinions are issued when audits find financial reporting to be inaccurate.

The audit also listed further disclaimers of opinion, meaning auditors could not be certain one way or another whether the balance sheets of certain funds or programs were accurately recorded.

Auditors applied the disclaimers of opinion to the Department of the Army General Fund, the Department of the Army Working Capital Fund, the U.S. Navy General Fund, the Department of the Air Force General Fund, the Department of the Air Force Working Capital Fund, the U.S. Transportation Command Transportation Working Capital Fund, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, the Defense Health Program General Fund, the Defense Information Systems Agency General Fund, and the Defense Logistics Agency Working Capital Fund.

The audit report said the disclaimers of opinion cover programs and funds that comprise a combined 43 percent of the U.S. military’s total assets and at least 64 percent of the military’s total budgetary resources.

Auditors found material misstatements within the Joint Strike Fighter program, which oversees the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter used by the various U.S. military branches and numerous partner nations.

The report found the program did not properly account for its global pool of spare parts.

The audit also found misstatements in the various programs the U.S. military uses to build up the military strength of various global allies and partners. Auditors determined there were $18.9 billion worth of material misstatements across partnership programs.

Despite eight attempts and eight failures, the Pentagon still has a way to go before it passes a full audit. The Pentagon is currently set on a goal to pass its first audit in 2028.

“We have reviewed the audit report and acknowledge the findings and results. The Department of War is committed to resolving its critical issues and achieving an unmodified audit opinion by 2028,Jules Hurst, who is performing the duties of the Pentagon comptroller, said in a Dec. 18 statement attached to the audit report.

Despite the setbacks, the Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the latest report showed continuing improvements across the Pentagon’s accounting efforts.

“This year’s audit revealed remediations in key areas, reflecting significant progress in financial management,” Hegseth said in a statement attached to the audit report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 17:30

"Dollar Store Obama": House Oversight Chair James Comer Torches Hakeem Jeffries

Zero Hedge -

"Dollar Store Obama": House Oversight Chair James Comer Torches Hakeem Jeffries

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer isn’t backing down from his probe into the massive Somali-led fraud draining Minnesota’s social services, slamming Democrat Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for shielding the scandal with personal attacks.

With federal investigations now revealing losses potentially exceeding $9 billion across multiple state-run programs, Comer’s takedown highlights how unchecked immigration policies have enabled epic taxpayer rip-offs under Democrat watch.

Comer launched the investigation earlier this month, targeting widespread fraud in Minnesota’s welfare and social services exploited by Somali immigrants. In a letter to Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, he demanded answers on the theft of billions from state and federal coffers.

“The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is investigating reports of widespread fraud in Minnesota’s social services programs. The Committee has serious concerns about how you as the Governor, and the Democrat-controlled administration, allowed millions of dollars to be stolen. The Committee also has concerns that you and your administration were fully aware of this fraud and chose not to act for fear of political retaliation,” Comer wrote.

He added, “The Committee therefore requests documents and communications showing what your administration knew about this fraud and whether you took action to limit or halt the investigation into this widespread fraud.”

The probe follows reports of schemes like the Feeding Our Future scandal, where fraudsters siphoned off funds meant for child nutrition, autism services, and housing aid. Federal prosecutors recently charged six more defendants in related autism and housing frauds, with one pleading guilty, as part of an ongoing crackdown.

Latest updates from U.S. attorneys indicate fraud in 14 Minnesota programs could top $9 billion, swamping state resources and prompting Treasury probes into potential terrorism ties. Governor Tim Walz, facing heat, admitted accountability but vowed fixes amid mounting charges.

When pressed on Walz and Ellison’s cooperation, Jeffries dodged the question and unleashed insults, labeling Comer “a joke, an embarrassment, an unserious individual, and a malignant clown.”

Comer fired back hard, dismissing the barbs and turning the tables on Jeffries’ hypocrisy.

“That’s the third time he’s called me a clown. Look, everyone that watches his interviews and sees how he tries to imitate Obama, they wonder why he’s got the nickname Dollar Store Obama. Look, he’s a low-IQ individual who has to resort to name-calling; that’s what he criticizes Donald Trump over. I don’t care what he calls me. He can come to Kentucky and campaign against me. I’ll pay for his gas bill,” Comer said.

“But at the end of the day, to defend Tim Walz is going to be a huge mistake for the Democrats because everyone in Minnesota knows that this fraud has been taking place for a long time. All I’m doing is my job, getting the backs of the taxpayers. If Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t like it, he can go fly a kite because, at the end of the day, the American people expect their tax dollars to be spent wisely.”

Adding fuel to the fire, Trump advisor Stephen Miller framed the scandal’s scale on Fox News, comparing it to Somalia’s GDP and blasting the importation of criminal elements.

“Well, first of all, regarding the situation in Minnesota, by the way, not just Minnesota — we have Somali refugees that were dumped here by Democrats in Ohio and Massachusetts. Let me just say we should not be shocked. When you import a population whose primary occupation is pirate, that they are going to come here and steal everything we have,” Miller said.

“Somalia has this giant coastline, and the only industry they have created, after hundreds of years is piracy, stealing what anyone going through who has actually built something has made. So, yes, the pirates have stolen all of our money, and they have to go home, Jesse. That’s the situation we’re in right now,” Miller further urged.

Miller continued: “So he has presided over — this corrupt, incompetent loser has presided over the largest theft of American taxpayer dollars in history. It’s never been equal before. The amount of money that’s been stolen is larger than the entire GDP of Somalia. In other words, the Somalians they brought here have theft and more than all the Somalians in Somalia have ever created for themselves in all the time that has existed up until now.”

So there needs to be a lot of people going to jail. And I can promise you, the Department of Justice is launching an investigation that is commensurate in force and in purpose with the scope, scale, size and magnitude of this controversy,” Miller declared.

This explosive exchange underscores the failures of open-border policies, where America First priorities get trampled by globalist agendas that prioritize foreign grifters over hardworking Americans.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 15:10

From War 'On' Silver To War 'For' Silver

Zero Hedge -

From War 'On' Silver To War 'For' Silver

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

You know Steve Quayle as a renowned radio host, filmmaker, book author and archeological dig expert. Most people do not know that Quayle has four decades experience in the gold and silver markets.

Quayle says the exploding record high prices for gold, and especially silver, are signaling big trouble brewing for the financial system. Are prices rising because we are near a global sovereign debt crisis or a wider war with Russia and Ukraine? Are currencies under pressure or is the bond market about to tank? It might be anyone of these, or all of the above, but one thing is for sure, the price of silver is going up well beyond the latest record high price. Quayle says,

“This has been one of the most explosive weeks with events taking place. Those of us in the business have known that the powers that be have been making their war on silver for 50 years. For 50 years, they have been manipulating the price of silver... robbing primarily from the individual investor. The war on silver has passed. Now, we are looking at the war for silver that is underway.

We are looking at a global treasure hunt for gold and silver, primarily silver ,for the burgeoning and exploding technology. Silver has properties that no other metal has.”

For example, Samsung just cut a deal in Mexico to reopen a mine and take all the production over the next two years. They are bypassing COMEX, CME and the LBMA and getting their raw silver directly from the mine. Quayle knows of nearly a dozen other big tech companies scrambling for silver. Quayle points out:

“This is critical because the amount of silver that would normally be available to individual investors is being cut off at the mine.”

Quayle says China is one of the biggest players getting control of silver supplies around the globe. Quayle says,

People would be astonished that the industrial demand for silver outstrips the available silver...

Here is the bottom line: on the production side, silver is oversold dramatically...

By the way, I am told the official price for silver behind the scenes is $86 an ounce...

The question is how fast will the silver market accelerate and make it impossible for the average investor or private investor to acquire?”

Quayle is also seeing the end of the futures markets and the way silver and gold has been priced. Quayle says:

 “We are watching the end of the futures market in the United States and in London. The London Bullion Metals Exchange cannot deliver. In my opinion, they have cheated and lied.”

If they don’t have the metal to deliver, they cannot set the price. Quayle says,

“Would you trust them with anything such as cattle futures, hogs or soybeans? Heck no. . .. Physical silver in hand still exists, but for how long? This is not a scare tactic. It is supply and demand...

I am telling people to get what you can while you can because the day will come when silver and gold will be unobtainable...

It’s critical for people to acquire what they can acquire now in silver. Gold is always your savings. Silver, historically, has been your barter fund.

Gold is your savings account for the future, and silver is your way to make it to the future.”

There is more in the 58-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with Steve Quayle warning you to prepare for much higher prices for silver and the financial storm that a failure to deliver physical silver will cause for 12.20.25.

To Donate to USAWatchdog, click here

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 14:00

Citizens In Eastern Ukraine Will Not Be Allowed To Vote, Zelensky Says

Zero Hedge -

Citizens In Eastern Ukraine Will Not Be Allowed To Vote, Zelensky Says

President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine and Washington are in talks about holding elections, after earlier this month he much belatedly said while under pressure from Trump that he's ready to allow national elections, so long as they can be done fairly and freely.

Zelensky indicated current discussions also hinge on the US and other partners helping set the conditions so Ukrainians can vote in safety. He previously stated the country could hold a vote within 60 days - but only if there are security guarantees.

Already over the weekend he erected more barriers to holding a vote, stipulating that citizens in Eastern Ukraine would not be able to participate. 

"Any election in Ukraine can not be held in Russia-occupied parts of the country," Zelensky has been quoted in international press as saying, and he once again added that a proper voting process can take place only if security is ensured.

via Al Jazeera

He has also lately said that Ukraine's foreign minister had started the initial work on the infrastructure needed for Ukrainians living abroad to participate.

The four oblasts that President Putin has called "our four new regions" and "our citizens forever" include Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions - and were annexed after a popular referendum during the first year of the war.

Putin has blasted Zelensky's rule as illegitimate given the canceled elections based on enacting a state of martial law, and President Trump has expressed increasing agreement with this perspective.

Still, Zelensky's new 'openness' with holding an election has been coupled with plenty of caveats and likely immense barriers. For example last week he said--

...that a ceasefire with Russia must be in place before elections can be held in Ukraine, "at least for the duration of the election process and voting". Ukrainian law forbids wartime elections but US President Donald Trump is pressuring Zelensky, whose term ended last year, to hold a vote.

But Trump this month finally put some real pressure on him, it appears. Given Zelensky had put the brakes on the US-proposed pace plan by definitively rejecting the territorial concessions aspects to the document, the US president's assessment in a recent Politico interview was blunt and highly critical, going so far as to basically call Ukraine not a democracy.

"They haven’t had an election in a long time," Trump said. "You know, they talk about a democracy, but it gets to a point where it's not a democracy anymore."

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 13:25

Jim Beam Shuttering Kentucky Distillery, Halting Production, For 2026

Zero Hedge -

Jim Beam Shuttering Kentucky Distillery, Halting Production, For 2026

One of Kentucky’s largest bourbon producers will halt whiskey production at its main Clermont site for 2026. Jim Beam plans to pause distillation at the James B. Beam campus in Happy Hollow beginning Jan. 1 while investing in site enhancements, according to the Lexington Herald Leader.

“We are always assessing production levels to best meet consumer demand and recently met with our team to discuss our volumes for 2026,” the statement said. “We’ve shared with our teams that while we will continue to distill at our (Freddie Booker Noe) craft distillery in Clermont and at our larger Booker Noe distillery in Boston, we plan to pause distillation at our main distillery on the James B. Beam campus for 2026 while we take the opportunity to invest in site enhancements. Our visitor center at the James B. Beam campus remains open so visitors can have the full James B. Beam experience and join us for a meal at The Kitchen Table.”

Bottling and warehousing will continue at Clermont, and the visitor center will remain open for Kentucky Bourbon Trail tourists. The pause was first reported by the Louisville Business Journal.

The Herald writes that the move comes as Kentucky’s $9 billion bourbon industry faces oversupply and weaker demand. Production statewide is down more than 55 million proof-gallons—over 28%—through August, the lowest level since 2018. Exports have also fallen, with U.S. whiskey sales to Canada down more than 60% through October amid a boycott tied to trade tensions.

Beam has not filed a layoffs notice with the state, and it is unclear how many jobs could be affected. Workers are represented by United Food and Commercial Workers, and the company said it is in discussions with the union “to assess how best to utilize our workforce during this transition.”

The Clermont facility produces Jim Beam’s flagship bourbon along with Basil Hayden and Knob Creek. A larger distillery in Boston, Ky., will not be affected. Distilling at Maker’s Mark also is unaffected. As of 2024, Jim Beam employed nearly 1,500 people in Kentucky.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 13:25

DHS Locates Nearly 130,000 Unaccompanied Missing Children, Says Noem

Zero Hedge -

DHS Locates Nearly 130,000 Unaccompanied Missing Children, Says Noem

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Health and Human Services have located over 129,143 unaccompanied illegal immigrant children whom the prior administration had lost track of, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said in a Dec. 19 post on X.

“Too many of these children were exploited, trafficked, and abused,” Noem wrote. “We will continue to ramp up efforts and will not stop until every last child is found.”

In August 2024, the DHS Office of Inspector General published a report revealing that 323,000 illegal immigrant children were unaccounted for in the United States.

As of May 2024, over 32,000 of these children had been served notices to appear in court but failed to do so. In addition, the safety of 291,000 children could not be verified.

In a Nov. 14 statement, DHS announced that the Immigration and Customs Enforcement had launched an initiative with local and state law enforcement partners to conduct welfare checks on the hundreds of thousands of illegal, unaccompanied children smuggled across the border and placed with unvetted sponsors under the Biden administration.

The main aim of the initiative is to ensure they are not being exploited, DHS said.

“Many of the children who came across the border unaccompanied were allowed to be placed with sponsors who were smugglers and sex traffickers,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said.

“We’ve jump-started our efforts to rescue children who were victims of sex and labor trafficking,” she said.

“President [Donald] Trump and Secretary Noem are laser-focused on protecting children and will continue to work with federal, state, and local law enforcement to reunite children with their families.”

Crackdown on Child Predators

The Trump administration recently launched Operation Relentless Justice to identify, track, and arrest child sex predators, according to a Dec. 19 statement from the Department of Justice (DOJ).

The two-week enforcement operation led to a nationwide crackdown that resulted in the arrest of more than 293 child sexual abuse offenders, with over 205 child victims located.

“Operation Relentless Justice shows no child will be forgotten and that all predators targeting the most vulnerable amongst us will be held accountable,” FBI Director Kash Patel said.

“This year, the FBI has led multiple nationwide surges across the U.S. to find and arrest hundreds of child predators. We will not stop until every child can live a life free of exploitation. We will utilize the strength of all our field offices and our federal, state, and local partners to protect communities across the nation from such horrific crimes.”

Prior to Operation Relentless Justice, the Trump administration had implemented Operation Restore Justice in May, which led to 205 child sex abuse offenders being arrested and 115 children being rescued.

Later in August, Operation Enduring Justice resulted in the arrests of 234 offenders and the rescue of 133 children.

Commenting on Operation Relentless Justice, FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino said in a Dec. 19 post on X that this was “one of many successful” operations conducted to crack down on violent crimes against children this year.

“The Director and I have prioritized their life-saving work from the moment we swore in. And we assured them an agency-wide effort to punish the demons who violate the sacred trust of children,” Bongino wrote.

On Dec. 19, the DOJ announced that a member of the Nihilistic Violent Extremist group “764” pleaded guilty to multiple acts involving the sexual exploitation of children.

The group is an online criminal network that methodically targets and exploits minors. The perpetrator, who pleaded guilty, is alleged to have coerced minors into engaging in sexual acts and committing self-harm.

The perpetrator “led a group of online predators whose ultimate purpose is to destroy our society,” said Sue J. Bai, principal deputy assistant attorney general for National Security.

“They tried to achieve that heinous goal by desensitizing innocent children to violence—coercing them to perform gruesome and harmful acts against themselves and animals—with the hope of encouraging further violence and spreading chaos.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 12:50

Delaware Supreme Court Reinstates Musk’s Record-Setting 2018 Tesla Compensation Plan

Zero Hedge -

Delaware Supreme Court Reinstates Musk’s Record-Setting 2018 Tesla Compensation Plan

The Delaware Supreme Court has reinstated Elon Musk’s 2018 CEO compensation package from Tesla, reversing lower-court rulings that had twice voided the award and bringing an end to a yearslong legal fight over one of the largest pay packages in corporate history, according to CNBC.

In a per curiam decision issued Friday, the court ruled that the Delaware Court of Chancery erred in canceling the pay plan outright. The justices said rescinding the award was “inequitable” because it “leaves Musk uncompensated for his time and efforts over a period of six years.” The Supreme Court reversed the rescission remedy and awarded $1 in nominal damages.

The compensation plan, approved by Tesla shareholders in 2018, granted Musk the option to purchase about 303 million split-adjusted shares through 12 milestone-based tranches tied to market capitalization and operational goals. When the award vested, it was valued at roughly $56 billion. At Friday’s closing share price, the package would be worth about $139 billion.

The case arose from a derivative lawsuit filed in 2018 by Tesla shareholder Richard J. Tornetta, who accused Musk and the Tesla board of breaching their fiduciary duties. In January 2024, Delaware Chancery Court Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick ruled that the pay plan had been improperly granted. She found that Musk “controlled Tesla” and that the process leading to board approval was “deeply flawed,” including failures to disclose all material information to shareholders before seeking their vote. Although shareholders approved the package twice, McCormick rejected it both times, writing that the Tesla board “bore the burden of proving that the compensation plan was fair, and they failed to meet their burden.”

The Supreme Court disagreed with the remedy imposed. In its opinion, the justices said the lower court’s decision to cancel the plan entirely was too extreme and noted that Tesla had not been given the opportunity to determine what a fair compensation award might look like. The ruling restores the 2018 pay package but leaves other aspects of the Chancery Court’s decision untouched.

Legal scholars emphasized that distinction. Dorothy Lund, a professor at Columbia Law School, told CNBC that while the decision revives the pay plan, it does not undo earlier findings about governance failures. “The court had previously decided that Musk was a controlling shareholder of Tesla and that the Tesla board and he arranged an unfair pay plan for him,” she said. “None of that was reversed in this decision.”

CNBC wrote that lawyers for Tornetta echoed that view in an emailed statement, saying, “We are proud to have participated in the historic verdict below, calling to account the Tesla board and its largest stockholder for their breaches of fiduciary duty.”

Musk responded to news of the ruling on X, writing, “Thank you for your unwavering support.”

Musk is already the world’s richest person, with an estimated net worth in excess of $600 billion, largely due to his Tesla holdings and his stake in SpaceX, which he plans to take public as early as next year. Tesla shares are trading near record highs.

The ruling also nullifies a shareholder-approved contingency plan that would have replaced Musk’s 2018 compensation if the appeal had failed. Separately, Tesla shareholders approved a new, much larger CEO pay package for Musk in 2025, consisting of 12 tranches tied to future milestones and potentially worth up to $1 trillion over the next decade.

The Supreme Court’s decision likely closes the final chapter of the Tornetta litigation and restores the compensation plan that helped cement Musk’s status as the wealthiest individual in the world, even as broader questions about Tesla’s corporate governance remain unresolved.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 12:15

Bitcoin's Quantum Debate Is Resurfacing & Markets Are Starting To Notice

Zero Hedge -

Bitcoin's Quantum Debate Is Resurfacing & Markets Are Starting To Notice

Authored by Shaurya Malwa via CoinDesk.com,

What to know:
  • The majority of Bitcoin developers argue that quantum computing does not pose an immediate threat to the network, with machines capable of breaking its cryptography unlikely to exist for decades.

  • Critics express concern over the lack of preparation for quantum threats, as governments and companies begin adopting quantum-resistant systems.

  • The Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP)-360 aims to introduce quantum-resistant address formats, allowing users to gradually transition to more secure cryptographic standards.

Quantum computing and the threat it poses to encrypted blockchains has once again crept into online bitcoin conversations, raising concerns that it poses a long-term risk that investors and developers are still struggling to talk about in the same language.

The latest flare-up in the debate followed comments from prominent Bitcoin developers pushing back against claims that quantum computers pose any real risk to the network in the foreseeable future. Their view is straightforward: that machines capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography do not exist today and are unlikely to for decades.

Adam Back, co-founder of Bitcoin infrastructure firm Blockstream, described the risk as effectively nonexistent in the near term, calling quantum computing “ridiculously early” and riddled with unresolved research problems. Even in a worst-case scenario, Back argued, Bitcoin’s design would not allow coins to be instantly stolen across the network.

Back’s assessment is broadly shared among protocol developers. Critics, however, say the problem isn’t the timeline, but it’s the lack of visible preparation.

Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography to secure wallets and authorize transactions. As CoinDesk previously explained, sufficiently advanced quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm — a quantum algorithm used to find the prime factors of big numbers — could derive private keys from exposed public keys, putting a portion of existing coins at risk.

The network wouldn’t collapse overnight, but funds sitting in older address formats — including Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million bitcoins, which have been untouched since 2010 — could become vulnerable to threat actors

For now, that threat remains theoretical. Yet governments and large enterprises are already acting as if quantum disruption is inevitable. The U.S. has outlined plans to phase out classical cryptography by the mid-2030s, while companies such as Cloudflare and Apple have begun rolling out quantum-resistant systems.

Bitcoin, by contrast, has not yet agreed on a concrete transition plan. And that gap is where market unease is creeping in.

Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, said on X that the disconnect between developers and investors is becoming hard to ignore. Capital, he argues, is less concerned with whether quantum attacks arrive in five years or 15, and more focused on whether Bitcoin has a credible path forward if cryptography standards change.

Plans to fight back

Developers counter that Bitcoin can adapt well before any real danger appears. Proposals exist to migrate users toward quantum-resistant address formats and, in extreme cases, restrict spending from legacy wallets. All of this would be preventive rather than reactive.

One such plan is the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP)-360, which introduces a new type of Bitcoin address designed to use quantum-resistant cryptography.

It provides users with a means to transfer their coins into wallets that rely on different mathematical algorithms, which are believed to be far more resistant to cracking by quantum computers.

BIP360 outlines three new signature methods, each offering varying levels of protection, so the network can gradually shift rather than force a sudden upgrade. Nothing would change automatically. Users would opt in over time by moving funds to the new address format.

Supporters of BIP360 argue the proposal is less about predicting when quantum computers arrive and more about preparation. Moving Bitcoin to a new cryptographic standard could take years, involving software updates, infrastructure changes, and user coordination.

Starting early, they say, reduces the risk of being forced into rushed decisions later.

However, Bitcoin’s conservative governance becomes a challenge when addressing long-horizon threats that require early consensus.

Quantum computing is not currently an existential threat to Bitcoin, and no credible timeline suggests otherwise.

However, as capital becomes more institutional and long-term, even distant risks require clearer answers.

Until developers and investors converge on a shared framework, the quantum question will continue to linger — not as a panic, but as a quiet friction weighing on sentiment.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 11:40

It’s A Google Problem

The Big Picture -

 

 

So let’s say you want to buy a concert ticket. You search in Google and you see a multitude of offers. All from the secondary market, i.e. scalpers, i.e. brokers. And if it’s a superstar, you may have the ability to purchase a ticket to what is supposedly a sold out show. However, many times the secondary market is offering tickets when primary tickets are still available on Ticketmaster, AXS, whatever ticketing company the promoter is using.

Watch this video:

@thefinanceinfo Rory Sutherland on the We Have a Meeting podcast explains why Google search is getting worse — and why being “#1” on Google isn’t even a win anymore. Search results are now stuffed with ads, so the first thing you click is rarely the best… just the highest bidder. He even paid more for a CTA because it appeared higher on the list, while the Canadian government offered the same thing for far cheaper. And if you search for a hotel? Google shows you five competing hotels before the one you actually wanted. The platform that once simplified the internet is now overwhelming it with options and charging businesses for the privilege. #business #google #marketing ♬ original sound – The Finance Info

1. This is Rory Sutherland, an English advertising executive who proffers wisdom on TikTok. He didn’t sit down and try to become a famous influencer, it all happened by accident. During Covid one video of him was posted and the public was hungry for his insights and his following burgeoned. This is what we call “pull” instead of “push.” Pre-internet marketing was all about pushing things on people, making them aware of them and getting the public to buy/partake. However, to succeed in the internet world, people must desire you. Push doesn’t work. There are too many marketing messages which are transparent hucksterism and people are turned off. But when they find something they like, they want more and tell everybody about it. This is the essence of success. Something that has been lost in the music business. We’ve got all these acts complaining they’re not getting paid, but if they were great, the public would desire them, they would pull their songs and more, make them a success. But nobody wants to own the truth.

2. Earlier this week I sent a TikTok video of Big Jim’s review of Yang Chow, a restaurant in Chinatown that a group of us go to on a regular basis. One of the recipients said she was not on TikTok. To quote:

“I’m barely engaged in social media. I don’t want to spend more time watching people I don’t know and will never meet. I can barely keep up with my friends and family!”

This is an old school, Facebook/Instagram view of social media. That it’s all about connecting with old friends, people bragging, trying to create FOMO. But no, on TikTok, a lot of the videos are informational. You learn. The algorithm divines what you are interested in and serves it up. You know I’ve got a bug up my ass about this, but I will say it once again, to counter the tide of oldsters…I’ve never heard a youngster complain about TikTok. It’s the oldsters who think it’s the devil. Social media is like AI, it’s here to stay. Furthermore, it has distinct advantages. Why are all the Boomers and Gen-X’ers so self-satisfied? They were addicted to television, but when there’s a new platform they pooh-pooh it. It would be laughable if traditional news and the so-called elite didn’t rail against technology constantly. The internet is the best thing that ever happened to me, I’m connecting with you right now! I can find information in niches that was previously unavailable to me, I can connect with people all over the world. Please change your perspective and get a TikTok account, to watch the videos in this piece, if nothing else.

2.a. Big Jim is a restaurant reviewer who popped up in my feed. He tends to review holes in the wall, unknown places in the San Fernando Valley, the ones no one talks about. I haven’t heard of most of the locations, but he’s piqued my interest. However, he gives a positive review to everything. This is the video on Yang Chow:

@bigjimsbabybites Yang Chow Chinese Restaurant in Los Angeles, CA. Since 1977 Food Review Yang Chow 819 N Broadway, Los Angeles, CA 90012 #Yangchow #chinesefood #losangeles #foodreview #fyp @Jisela Ordaz ♬ original sound – Big Jim

So Google is a B2B enterprise where the consumer gets screwed. Here’s another Rory Sutherland clip that talks about this:

@wehaveameetingpod Google is scamming you – Rory Sutherland I searched for a hotel. I wanted that hotel, not six others. There’s a fine line between being helpful and being annoying, okay Google? Full Podcast out soon. Don’t miss it. #RorySutherland #MarketingInsights #EthicalMarketing #AttentionEconomy #SmartAdvertising #HumanMarketing #Google ♬ original sound – We Have A Meeting Podcast

 

Bottom line… Google is in cahoots with advertisers who are oftentimes using subterfuge to make their money. Google doesn’t police this whatsoever. As a matter of fact, Google is proud of the fact that it’s all done automatically, online. But, the truth is Google has a responsibility to the consumer to deliver accurate information. However, the secondary market spends a fortune on ads with Google and the tech company looks the other way. The primary market is buried and can’t compete.

All this talk about the secondary market vs. the primary market… How can the primary market succeed if Google is helping the secondary, looking the other way?

The music industry must change its focus. It’s myopic, i.e. the secondary market is bad. It is, but it’s being enabled by Google, which should be shamed into changing its policy.

It’s not only concert tickets. Advertisers purvey all kinds of things for sale at exorbitant rates, far beyond the price the original seller is offering them at. But the original seller can’t compete, because these secondary market enterprises without the underlying costs of the original sellers spend a fortune on Google ads and dominate mindshare.

This can be changed.

Google said “Don’t be evil.”? It’s actively harming the concert industry, and many more verticals to boot!

~~~

Visit the archive:   http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/

@Lefsetz  http://www.twitter.com/lefsetz

If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter

~~~

Originally published by Bob Lefsetz at the Leftsetz Letter

The post It’s A Google Problem appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Christmas Gift That Climate Grinches Can't Abide

Zero Hedge -

The Christmas Gift That Climate Grinches Can't Abide

Authored by Vijay Jayaraj via American Greatness,

The quietude of looking out the kitchen window on a December morning at a meadow dusted in snow is magical. A deer pauses at the edge of the wood, breath steaming in the cold air, grazing on whatever bits of green poke through the snow. It is a scene replicated on greeting cards and stamped on cookie tins.

Part of the magic behind that tableau—from the roast in the oven to the cranberries on a plate, from the pine and hardwoods standing tall outside to the browsing fauna—is a phenomenon the establishment media ignore: CO₂-driven, NASA-acknowledged greening of Earth.

Satellite data from the last four decades confirm a significant increase in vegetation over as much as half the globe. During this period, atmospheric CO₂ increased from about 350 parts per million (ppm) to more than 400 ppm, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels.

It is a gift arriving right on cue to meet a continuous increase in population and demand for food. This basic sustenance allows for all other human endeavors—developments in artificial intelligence, medicine, and more. It is difficult to write computer code on an empty stomach.

Behind this gift of plenty is a process fundamental to all life, starting with plants: Photosynthesis is a mechanism by which plants use CO₂, water, and sunlight to make sugars for food. When atmospheric CO₂ rises—whether from the emissions of human activity or any other source—plants grow faster. A side benefit is that they use water more efficiently, making them more resilient to arid conditions and extending their geographic range.

The degree to which plants respond to more CO₂ varies, but it is always positive. An increase in CO₂ to 800 parts per million (ppm) or so—more than double the current atmospheric concentration—increases yields by 10% to 100%.

In greenhouse farming, carbon dioxide levels are elevated to 1,000 ppm or so to increase the yields of tomatoes and cucumbers by 20% to 40%. Plants, such as corn, sugarcane, and millets, also benefit from higher atmospheric CO₂, whose positive effect on them is even more evident in the presence of drought.

For many, a cold Christmas morning is warmed by coffee, especially festive offerings like peppermint mocha and gingerbread latte. Well, the good news is that even coffee plants are boosted by the rise of CO₂. Studies in Latin America found that elevated carbon dioxide boosted coffee plant photosynthesis and increased yields by 12% to 14%.

People forget that the Little Ice Age—lasting from about 1300 to 1850—brought crop failures and famine to large sections of Europe and Asia. Rivers froze, and growing seasons shrank. Many communities struggled during periods of cold-induced scarcity.

The 20th century delivered the opposite: the longer growing seasons of a modestly warmer climate paired with higher levels of CO₂. This is hardly the making of a catastrophe that some would have us believe. In fact, a 2025 analysis projected changes in global average yields across all crops to be neutral or positive up to 5 degrees Celsius of warming into the future.

Only the Climate Grinches would oppose such a bounty of greening from modern warmth and CO₂ concentrations. These are the characters who have dominated headlines in popular media and policy roundtables in Brussels and Washington. They steal not only the joy of experiencing this natural abundance by spreading false fears but also the prosperity and sovereignty of nations.

Climate Grinches look at a greening planet and see disaster. When NASA announces that Earth has added vegetation equivalent to two American continents, they warn that this cannot last, that benefits are temporary, and that doom still awaits. When farmers report bumper harvests enabled by longer growing seasons and CO₂ fertilization, the Climate Grinches insist that gains are outweighed by unspecified future horrors.

So, this Christmas season, when you gather with your family, look at the spread before you with new eyes. Reject the guilt that climate orthodoxy seeks to place on our shoulders.

Modern lifestyles are not destroying the planet. We are basking in a vibrant ecosystem that supports more greenery, more people, and more human potential than at any other time in history.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 10:30

Fed's Soft Landing Talk Meets Hard Data

Zero Hedge -

Fed's Soft Landing Talk Meets Hard Data

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The Fed’s soft landing narrative is a key theme in financial media, particularly on Wall Street, which expects a resurgence in economic activity in 2026 to justify increasing forward earnings expectations.

As shown, Wall Street currently expects the bottom 493 stocks to contribute more to earnings in 2026 than they have in the past 3 years. This is notable in that, over the past three years, the average growth rate for the bottom 493 stocks was less than 3%. Yet over the next 2 years, that earnings growth is expected to average above 11%.

Furthermore, the outlook is even more exuberant for the most economically sensitive stocks. Small and mid-cap companies struggled to produce earnings growth during the previous three years of robust economic growth, driven by monetary and fiscal stimulus. However, next year, even if the Fed’s soft landing narrative is valid, they are expected to see a surge in earnings growth rates of nearly 60%.

Notably, all this is occurring at a time when the entire economy’s profit margins have peaked and may potentially be turning lower.

It should come as no surprise that there is a high correlation between economic growth and earnings, given that in a demand-driven economy, consumption is what generates revenues, and revenues ultimately develop earnings.

“A better way to visualize this data is to look at the correlation between the annual change in earnings growth and inflation-adjusted GDP. There are periods when earnings deviate from underlying economic activity. However, those periods are due to pre- or post-recession earnings fluctuations. Currently, economic and earnings growth are very close to the long-term correlation.”

The problem currently facing the Fed’s soft landing narrative is that it hopes the economy can slow without a recession, allowing inflation to return to its target. For now, investors have held the markets higher, hoping the Fed’s soft landing narrative comes to fruition, which would lead to a surge in economic activity. However, the latest employment, retail sales, and inflation trends suggest a potentially worse outcome, characterized by weakening demand and shaky consumer strength.

Those factors weaken the case for the Fed’s hopes of a soft landing and suggest an increase in market fragility.

Falling Inflation Tells a Demand Story

Let’s start with inflation. If economic growth were on the cusp of resurgence, expectations for inflation would be rising. However, as shown, those expectations never rose with “printed inflation,” because it was the “transitory effect” of massive monetary stimulus. The bond market’s view was that inflation would revert to its normalized levels as that monetary excess left the system, which has been the case. This is particularly notable, as inflation expectations have always been more accurate than the “inflation” bears we discussed yesterday.

In the Fed’s narrative of a soft landing, the trend in inflation expectations is crucial. Here is an essential point:

“The Federal Reserve WANTS inflation.”

Here is another critical point: So do you.

Without inflation, there can not be economic growth, increasing wages, and an improving standard of living. In other words, prices must always rise over time, which is why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, thereby supporting 2% economic growth. What we don’t want is “disinflation” or “deflation,” which would occur in conjunction with a recession, leading to job losses, falling wages, and reduced prosperity overall. As shown in the chart below, there is a high correlation between inflation, economic growth, and interest rates over time.

When inflation eases because demand weakens, the economy slows, producers lower prices to clear unsold goods, and employers become more restrictive in hiring and wage increases. Services that rely on discretionary spending lose pricing power, and banks become more stringent in their lending practices. These are not signs of a healthy expansion, but rather reflect a decline in spending power among households.

The Fed’s soft landing narrative is predicated on the hope that it can achieve its 2% inflation target without causing a more widespread slowdown. Historically, the Fed has failed in such attempts, as shown by the relationship between Fed rate-cutting cycles and economic and financial consequences.

As an investor, you need to distinguish between inflation caused by temporary supply/demand shocks, as we saw following the Pandemic, and inflation caused by organic economic activity. Supply/demand imbalances, such as higher input costs or a lack of supply caused by a geopolitical shock, can create a spike in inflation, which resolves itself when the shock is over. However, inflation caused by organic demand provides insight into the strength or weakness of the economy. Currently, we are focused on potential demand erosion as consumers cut back, employment weakens, and wages decline.

The retail sector provides early signals of demand weakness. Housing-related spending, auto sales, and discretionary purchases show stress, and many consumers face higher borrowing costs and lower savings. As shown, PCE, which accounts for nearly 70% of the GDP calculation, slowing inflation rates, and weak retail sales growth, all suggest that demand destruction is present in the economy. Such a development may further weigh on the Fed’s narrative of a soft landing.

As noted, the Fed’s soft landing narrative requires demand to slow moderately while avoiding recession. However, falling inflation driven by weakening demand and sluggish employment growth suggests a more profound weakness.

Retail Sales Growth Is Not What It Appears

Headline retail sales reports often show month-over-month increases, which reporters interpret as evidence of resilient consumer strength. However, a look at the data tells a different story. For example, since 2022, real retail sales growth has effectively not grown. In fact, previous periods of flat retail sales growth were pre-recessionary warnings.

Secondly, the annual rate of change in real retail sales is at levels that have typically preceded weaker economic environments and recessions.

Notably, retail sales figures are subject to seasonal adjustments, which correct for typical spending patterns. During the holiday and back-to-school seasons, spending increases and the “adjustments” attempt to remove these effects. However, if the adjustment process overestimates normal seasonal strength, the adjusted result will appear firmer than it actually is. Secondly, another distortion comes from changes in price levels. If prices fall because demand weakens, nominal sales may rise while real volumes fall. Consumers buy less but pay lower prices. Nominal retail sales can mislead when viewed without context.

This is what we are currently seeing in the economy. As consumers pull back, businesses face the prospect of weaker revenue. That leads to slower hiring, lower investment, and falling confidence.

This matters for the Fed’s view of a soft landing. If consumer demand remains weak, the economy may slow more than expected, which increases the risk of recession. A “soft landing” requires growth to slow without tipping over, but current economic data points suggest a risk to that growth story.

The Market Risk If The Fed Is Wrong

If the Fed’s soft landing narrative proves incorrect, the downside risk to investors increases significantly. The soft landing narrative has been factored into market prices, earnings expectations, and economic projections. Any deviation exposes valuations and portfolios to sharp repricing. With valuations already very elevated, the risk of a repricing event is not insignificant.

Wall Street’s forward expectations hinge on a growth rebound in 2026. Those projections assume that demand will return and margins will remain stable. However, there is no guarantee that either of those assumptions are accurate. If margins have already peaked, inflation declines as demand erodes, and employment falls, negative earnings revisions could be substantial. The year-over-year change in real retail sales, as shown in the chart, has hovered near recessionary warning levels. With consumers already strained by high debt service costs, weak wage growth, and declining savings, discretionary spending is under pressure, which directly affects earnings across cyclical sectors.

If demand weakens further, companies will face lower revenue and tighter margins. The margin compression will initially impact earnings, particularly for smaller firms with limited pricing power. A repricing of earnings expectations will follow, dragging valuations with it.

The Fed’s historical track record of avoiding recession during tightening and easing cycles is poor. Most rate-cutting cycles have been in response to financial or economic stress, not smooth slowdowns. If the Fed cuts rates next year, it likely won’t be in response to a soft landing. That shift in narrative would catch most investors leaning the wrong way.

Positioning for a soft landing assumes the Fed can control inflation without breaking demand. The data say otherwise. The risk, as always, is that the market wakes up to this reality too late. Therefore, investors should consider preparing for such a possibility in advance.

If the Fed’s soft landing narrative fails, investors will face a different environment than the one markets currently price. The assumptions behind strong equity valuations, tight credit spreads, and risk-on positioning will crack. If it does, that means you will need to act based on risk, not rhetoric. Here are some actions to consider.

1. Reduce Exposure to Overvalued Growth Assets: Tech and growth stocks led the rally on rate cut hopes and soft landing optimism. If earnings disappoint and rates stay higher, these valuations come under pressure.

  • Trim overweight positions in mega-cap tech.
  • Avoid speculative names with no earnings.
  • Focus on companies with strong cash flow and pricing power.

2. Increase Cash and Short-Term Treasuries: If growth slows and volatility returns, capital preservation matters. Cash gives you optionality. Short-term Treasuries offer yield without duration risk.

  • Rebalance toward 3-month to 1-year Treasury bills.
  • Hold cash equivalents yielding over 4.5 percent.
  • Avoid reaching for yield in low-quality credit.

3. Tilt Toward Defensive Sectors: Slower growth hits cyclicals and high beta sectors first. Defensive sectors hold up better in downturns.

  • Favor healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities.
  • Limit exposure to discretionary, financial, and industrial sectors.
  • Screen for dividend sustainability and balance sheet strength.

4. Prepare for Credit Stress: If recession risk rises, corporate credit spreads will widen. Junk bonds will suffer. Bank lending tightens further.

  • Exit high-yield bonds and floating-rate loans.
  • Review credit exposure in bond funds.
  • Consider higher-quality fixed income with lower default risk.

5. Be Patient and Opportunistic: If markets break, forced selling creates dislocations. You want dry powder ready.

  • Hold 10–20 percent in cash or equivalents.
  • Build watchlists of high-quality names at lower valuations.
  • Add in stages as prices adjust, not all at once.

You don’t need to predict a recession. Instead, prepare for the potential risk if the Fed’s hopes for a soft landing fade. You can always increase risk more easily than recovering from losses. Remaining disciplined, protecting capital, and looking for opportunities is always the best course of action.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 09:20

Ten Economic Questions for 2026

Calculated Risk -

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

Below are my ten questions for 2026 (I've been doing this online every year for 21 years!).  These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions.

The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. economy will likely perform in 2026, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking.  1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2% Q4-over-Q4 in 2025.  The FOMC is expecting growth of 2.1% to 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 in 2026. How much will the economy grow in 2026?  Will there be a recession in 2026?
2) Employment: Through November 2025, the economy added 610 thousand jobs in 2025.   How many jobs will be added in 2026?  Or will the economy lose jobs? 
3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 4.6% in November, up from 4.2% in November 2024.   Currently the FOMC is projecting the unemployment rate will decrease to the 4.3% to 4.4% range in Q4 2026.  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?

4) Participation Rate: In November 2025, the overall participation rate was at 62.5%, unchanged year-over-year from 62.5% in November 2024, and below the pre-pandemic level of 63.3% in February 2020.   Long term, the BLS is projecting the overall participation rate will decline to 61.1% by 2034 due to demographics.  What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

5) Inflation: Core PCE was up 2.8% YoY through September. This was down from a peak of 5.6% in early 2022.  The FOMC is forecasting the YoY change in core PCE will be in the 2.4% to 2.6% range in Q4 2025. Will the core inflation rate decrease further in 2026, and what will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026? 

6) Monetary Policy:  The FOMC cut the federal funds rate three times in 2025 from "4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent" at the beginning of 2025, to "3-1/2 to 3-3/4" at the end of the year. The mid-point on the "dot plot" suggests many FOMC participants expect around two 25 bp rate cuts in 2026.  What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

7) Wage Growth: Wage growth was decemt in 2025, up 3.5% year-over-year as of November.  How much will wages increase in 2026?

8) Residential Investment: How much will Residential investment (RI)  change in 2026?  How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

9) House Prices: It appears house prices - as measured by the national repeat sales index (Case-Shiller, FHFA, and Freddie Mac) - will be mostly flat in 2025.  What will happen with house prices in 2026?

10) Housing Inventory: Housing inventory decreased sharply during the pandemic to record lows in early 2022.  Since then, inventory has increased but is still below pre-pandemic levels.  Will inventory increase further in 2026?

Britain's Ruling Class Loves To Cosplay As A Titan

Zero Hedge -

Britain's Ruling Class Loves To Cosplay As A Titan

Authored by Gerry Nolan via The Ron Paul Institute

From the podium, it’s Churchillian thunder: prepare for war, deter Russia, stand tall, lead the free world. Back in the engine room, it’s Whitehall with a calculator, sweating through its suit because the numbers simply don’t work. The Financial Times reports Starmer has delayed the Defence Investment Plan over "affordability," kicking it into 2026, because the military’s wish list collided with the Treasury’s reality. Translation: the rhetoric is premium, the balance sheet is bargain-bin.

And then, because the universe has a sense of irony sharp enough to cut steel, enter Ajax; the £6-plus billion armored vehicle program that has become the British state’s spirit animal. Trials paused again. Fresh safety concerns. Soldiers injured. Crews sickened by vibration and noise. Endless reviews. Endless "lessons learned." Endless press lines insisting this is all somehow progress.

If you want to understand modern Britain, don’t read strategy documents. Watch a procurement program that cannot stop hurting the people it is meant to protect.

Ajax was meant to be the backbone of Britain’s future armored forces, a next-generation reconnaissance and strike platform designed to replace ageing vehicles and restore credibility to the British Army’s maneuver capability. Instead, it has become a case study in institutional failure: spiraling costs, years of delay, fundamental design flaws, and a safety record so poor it forced repeated trial suspensions. Soldiers were not merely inconvenienced; they were physically harmed in testing, suffering hearing damage, sickness, and long-term health concerns.

This is not a marginal technical glitch. It is the predictable outcome of a system where industrial capacity has been hollowed out, accountability diffused, and procurement reduced to a paper exercise optimized for contracts, not combat. Ajax does not fail because Britain lacks engineers or soldiers. It fails because Britain no longer possesses a state machinery capable of translating ambition into functioning hardware at scale.

This is the farce at the heart of the Atlantic security sermon.

Britain speaks about Russia the way a fading aristocrat sneers at a rising industrial superpower… condescending, dismissive, utterly uncurious. For years we’ve heard the same insult recycled like a nervous tic: Russia is a "gas station," a crude petro-state propped up by fumes and nostalgia. Yet here we are.

Russia the “gas station,” under the most comprehensive sanctions regime in modern history, has been forced—by Western institutions themselves—into an inconvenient admission: Russia now ranks as the fourth-largest economy in the world by purchasing-power parity.

So let’s pause and ask the question Britain’s elites refuse to face. If Russia is a glorified gas station, what exactly does that make Britain? A country that cannot publish a defence investment plan on time. A state that cannot field a functioning armoured vehicle without injuring its own troops. An economy that cannot sustain rearmament in spite of private finance gimmicks and accounting contortions. A political class that cannot reconcile its war talk with its industrial capacity.

If Russia is a gas station, Britain increasingly resembles a heritage museum complete with a gift shop, living off past glories while subcontracting its future.

Now let’s move to where the illusion truly collapses, production.

Wars are not won by hysterical speeches, theatrical bravado, summits, or moral pronouncements. They are won by output — steel, shells, access to critical minerals, drones, logistics, and the brutal arithmetic of throughput. On this front, the West has been dragged, kicking and screaming, into recognition of a reality it tried to meme out of existence.

Russia's military-industrial base bureaucratically compressed, hardened, and scaled under pressure —now outpaces NATO’s collective ammunition production by a multiple. Western officials themselves have been forced to admit the gap, even as they scramble to promise future catch-up schedules that read more like aspiration than viable plan.

In sum, while Russia produces, Britain reviews glorified mission statements. And while Russia iterates, Britain delays indefinitely out of impotence. Russia fields game changing adaptations learned from battlefield within months. While Britain commissions another inquiry.

And this is where the mockery turns into indictment.

Because Britain is not merely weak. It is performatively Russophobic, a leading amplifier of a psychological contagion that has swept Western Europe. A political culture that replaced diplomacy with insult, respect with caricature, and strategic realism with adolescent moral posturing.

For decades, Russians asked for nothing exotic. Security guarantees. Recognition of reasonable red lines. A place in a shared European security architecture. Basic respect and dignity after the Cold War. They were met instead with NATO expansion, broken promises, regime-change evangelism, and the casual humiliation of a great civilization reduced to punchlines for Western domestic politics.

And now, after years of stoking this hysteria, inflaming this anger, and dismissing Russian concerns as paranoia, Britain offers the world a confession written in delays, budget shortfalls, and broken machinery.

For all the talk of deterrence, what they’re left with is cold reality, exposure. A state that talks war while failing at procurement is not projecting strength. It is advertising vulnerability at scale. A leadership class that cannot fund its own defence while demanding continental confrontation is not leading, but gambling with other people’s lives.

For a country in this position to posture as a peer adversary to Russia is not serious strategy. It is suicide pact dressed up as virtue. At this point, honesty would demand something radical in London: humility and sober realism.

A state in Britain’s position should not be lecturing the world, moralizing from the sidelines, or inflating its own strategic importance. It should be urgently repairing what it helped to destroy, namely trust, diplomacy, and the basic architecture of European security. It should be suing for peace, not performing toughness it cannot afford.

Because history is unforgiving to former empires that mistake memory for power.

Russia did not arrive at this moment through fantasy. It arrived through necessity, through sanctions, pressure, exclusion, and the steady realisation that the West no longer spoke the language of compromise, only command. Britain, by contrast, arrived here through illusion: convinced it was still a titan while outsourcing its industry, hollowing out its capacity, and replacing strategy with theatre.

This is the real danger now, not Russian strength, but Western self-deception.

A political class that cannot build, cannot fund, and cannot field its own defence has no business escalating confrontation with a civilization that can. When rhetoric races far ahead of reality, history does not intervene gently. It intervenes brutally. Britain is not preparing for a conflict with Russia. It is preparing for a reckoning with the reality of its own weakness.

And reality, unlike Whitehall briefings, legacy slogans, or moral posturing, does not negotiate.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 08:10

Valuation with Aswath Damodaran

The Big Picture -

Aswath Damodaran is on sabbatical this academic year, and while he is away, the full versions of nearly all of his classes, with lectures, class material and tests/exams are accessible online.

This is an incredible resource; when people discuss the impact of the internet, this is a perfect example.

If you are a student who is serious about learning about stock valuations or simply a curious person, I urge you to check this out.

 

 

Hard to imagine this sort of asset was unavailable a decade or so ago…

The post Valuation with Aswath Damodaran appeared first on The Big Picture.

DNA Evidence Proves "First Black Briton" Was Actually A White Girl

Zero Hedge -

DNA Evidence Proves "First Black Briton" Was Actually A White Girl

In 2021 the establishment media was electrified by a discovery involving the ancient remains of a woman found over a century ago near a village in East Sussex in Britain.  The reason leftist journalists were so hyped?  A supposedly comprehensive study by "experts" in facial reconstruction had determined that the nearly 2000 year old skeleton belonged to a Sub-Saharan African person.

The remains became known as the "Beachy Head Woman" and images of her reconstructed black face began circulating internationally.  This was proof, somehow, that progressives had always been right to support third world immigration.

The new data arrived conveniently in time to support a far-left campaign to defend the ideas of multiculturalism.  Part of this narrative asserts that Caucasian regions of the world have never actually been Caucasian and that western culture doesn't really exist.  In fact, white Europeans have no claim to any lands anywhere, they have no home, and African/Asian migrants have "always" freely traveled throughout Europe.

The political left was enthralled, taking to social media and reposting the discovery millions of times over to "own the fascists".  The BBC even paid to have a plaque constructed on the site where the bones were discovered proudly proclaiming that this is where the first Briton of "African origin" had been found.

School lessons were immediately developed in the UK, teaching students about the multicultural history of Britain.  This was scientific confirmation to back up the avalanche of European entertainment content depicting Sub-Saharan Africans as integral to the history of the continent, roaming the lands as tribesman or enjoying the finery of royal court.   

Leftists argue that their version of history justifies the expansion of open mass immigration, because "things have always been this way" and white people today who want to protect their histories and cultures from erasure are merely ignorant of the past.  

The problem is, Beachy Head Woman is not African or black.  Recently confirmed DNA evidence shows she was white with blonde hair and blue eyes.  She was not a migrant, but born in ancient Britain.

The narrative began to break down in 2023 when genetic studies indicated she might have come from Cyprus (a part of the Roman Empire) and was not of African origin.  More advanced DNA analysis, released this week, destroyed the claims of migration and also embarrassed the "experts" involved in the facial reconstruction of the skull.

The new study, led by researchers at London’s Natural History Museum, working in collaboration with University College London, used advanced ancient DNA sequencing that was not available a decade ago. By extracting a much larger quantity of high-quality DNA, they were able to place her ancestry within a broader Roman-era genetic framework. 

The results show that her DNA is most similar to that of individuals from rural southern Britain during the Roman period and to modern populations from England. There are no traces of recent sub-Saharan African or Mediterranean ancestry. Isotope analysis of her teeth and bones indicates that her early years were spent on the south coast of Britain, and her mobility patterns were similar to those of other local individuals from the same period.

It's a perfect example of the growing problem of ideology mixing with science and poisoning the well of human knowledge.  The rules of scientific investigation require an objective mindset, letting the evidence show whatever the evidence shows.  However, with the invasion of woke cultism into every facet of academia, the goal of science is now to fulfill the demands of the multicultural narrative.

Luckily, the takeover of academia is not total and the truth still slips through the cracks on occasion.  

Woke "science" approaches investigation by developing a desired conclusion first, and then manipulating the evidence to support that conclusion.  In other words, science is nothing more than another propaganda tool.  This is why wokeness can no longer be allowed to spread into western academics or into STEM fields; it's not just destructive to political discourse and social stability, it is also a cancer eating away at the pillars of human knowledge.  

If these people are allowed to continue their conquest of science, modern human civilization will crumble.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 07:35

Swiss Authorities Silent As EU Sanctions One Of World's Most Respected Military Analysts

Zero Hedge -

Swiss Authorities Silent As EU Sanctions One Of World's Most Respected Military Analysts

Authored by Peter Hanseler via ForumGeopolitica.com,

When German journalists Röper and Lipp were sanctioned, no one in Switzerland reacted—now one of the world's most respected military analysts is being sanctioned—a Swiss citizen. Weltwoche is waking up, Switzerland is fast asleep.

Introduction

Terrorizing journalists with sanctions in order to suppress the truth is nothing new for the EU.

On May 20, 2025, the EU sanctioned two German journalists for the first time—Alina Lipp and Thomas Röper. At the time, we reported in detail on this case, “EU sanctions German journalists,” and also analyzed the case from a legal perspective.

The result was clear: punishment without crime or trial, disenfranchisement and expropriation without a hearing.

The EU is dangerously close to the Nazi regime of 1936, when Thomas Mann was expatriated.

Following the same pattern, action is now being taken against a Swiss citizen for the first time.

Jacques Baud - You Can't Be More Objective Than He Is

Jacques Baud is one of the most objective and respected military analysts around. He is highly regarded and respected not only throughout Europe, but also in the US.

His work is not limited to analysis on the most prestigious YouTube platforms; he has also written numerous excellent books. His style is unique in that he does not concern himself with politics, but only with the analysis of warfare, in a calm and dispassionate manner. His analyses have never been anti-Ukrainian or pro-Russian, but objective.

He has long seen a NATO defeat on the horizon, not based on his wishes, but on the facts on the long front and the war strategy and tactics of the various parties.

This did not fit in at all with the Russophobic war cries of the EU, which still dreams of ultimate victory today, just like Adolf Hitler did in the spring of 1945.

The latest example comes from Friedrich Merz, whose lucidity must now seriously be called into question. To justify the theft of Russian assets, he said the following before the German Bundestag on December 15, 2025:

“To be very clear and very explicit here: we are not doing this to prolong the war. On the contrary, we are doing this to end this war as quickly as possible, ladies and gentlemen. Because this sends a clear signal to Moscow that continuing this war is pointless for Moscow.”

Friedrich Merz, December 15, 2025

Jacques Baud's crime was therefore that his analyses were correct - no more and no less.

Die Weltwoche Stands up— Finally

When Alina Lipp and Thomas Röper were sanctioned, Weltwoche contented itself with an indifferent, lukewarm article and did not stand up for its colleagues – we were shocked.

It seems that the opportunistic Mr. Köppel has felt the heat from Ms. Kaja Kallas a little too closely for his liking: Köppel is finally standing up, because he could be next, and, as Martin Niemöller said, when it's your turn, you're wide awake.

"First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me

Holocaust Memorial Day Trust

Now Weltwoche is also reflecting on the lack of a fair hearing and politically motivated persecution, not in as much detail as in our article of May 25, 2025, but still.

"Opportunism is costing a 70-year-old military analyst his quality of life"

Weltwoche has published half a dozen articles on Jacque Baud, and Köppel is playing the Joan of Arc of journalists, styling himself in his own way as the Winkelried of his guild. It's rather late in the day. Had Köppel reacted with the same force in May, the men and women in Brussels would probably have thought twice about sanctioning a Swiss citizen. Opportunism is costing a 70-year-old military analyst his quality of life.

Official Switzerland Remains Silent

It is nothing new that my home country no longer has any backbone when it comes to Brussels. Weltwoche writes:

“In Bern, they would prefer to have nothing to do with it and are passing the buck like a hot potato.”

Weltwoche, December 18, 2025

This is obviously worrying, but the Swiss government is behaving in exactly the same way as Köppel did in May this year when German colleagues were sanctioned. They wanted nothing to do with the whole affair.

The Next Litmus Test for Switzerland Is Coming Soon

The EU's plundering of the Russian Federation's frozen funds will soon be complete. Incidentally, this has nothing to do with war, but rather with the sheer financial and political survival of the EU and its criminal leaders, because without the stolen money, the EU is bankrupt.

Despite the clarity that the EU is a criminal organization, Switzerland is negotiating a comprehensive package of new agreements with the EU, including the integration of dynamic legal adoption processes. This means that Switzerland is actually discussing automatically adopting the laws of a criminal organization.

Patrick Baab Interviewed Jacques Baud

We would like to draw your attention to the interview recorded on December 16 by our author Patrik Baab with Jaques Baud.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 07:00

Why US Is Such A Popular Destination During Global Migrant Crisis

Zero Hedge -

Why US Is Such A Popular Destination During Global Migrant Crisis

Authored by Chris Summers via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration recently suspended the processing of all immigration applications from 19 countries, including Afghanistan, citing national security and public safety concerns.

The Dec. 2 decision came a week after an Afghan national who had been allowed into the United States under a Biden-era program was charged with shooting two National Guard soldiers near the White House. The ambush killed one of the victims and left the other in critical condition.

The White House’s move comes amid a global migration crisis, in which millions of people have left their home countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia for the affluent economies of North America and Europe.

Although the United States was founded by immigrants, experts say that times have changed, and the country has become too popular a destination that now action is needed to restore a functioning immigration system.

“How this country was founded, and the ethos and numbers of people in the 1600s, 1700s, and 1800s are very different than what we’ve been experiencing,” Lora Ries, director of the Border Security and Immigration Center at The Heritage Foundation, told The Epoch Times. “And so our immigration system has just been run away, whether it’s illegal or legal.”

“We need to pop this bubble and get control over our country, [with] a lawful, manageable and orderly immigration system.”

The countries affected by the Dec. 2 memorandum were Burma (also known as Myanmar), Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Yemen, Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela. Most of these countries have high visa overstay rates or poor vetting procedures.

In August, the Pew Research Center analyzed Census Bureau data and said 53.3 million immigrants were living in the United States in June 2025.

According to the Migration Policy Institute, immigrants made up 14.8 percent of the population in 2024, a rate the United States has not seen since 1890.

“Our inn is not only full, it is overflowing,” Ries said. “So other countries need to step up and pitch in.”

Push and Pull Factors in Migration

In 2024, the United Nations’ population division published data that suggested a record 304 million people lived in a country other than their country of birth.

That figure—which represents 3.7 percent of the world’s 8.2 billion people—was up from 275 million in 2020.

That number would include the 42 million people who, in June 2025, the United Nations refugee agency said have left their home country due to “persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations or events seriously disturbing public order,” plus 8.4 million who are claiming asylum in another country.

War and political violence are push factors in some parts of the world, says Paul Morland, demographer and author of “The Human Tide: How Population Shaped the Modern World,” but he said they were less significant than people’s age-old desire to improve their standard of living.

“A bigger story than the security one is the economic one, because that’s always there,” Morland told The Epoch Times.

He noted that the Congo, which has had an ongoing civil war for several years, has not generated large numbers of migrants to Europe or North America, while India and Pakistan—which have been largely peaceful—have seen large numbers move to the West.

Many times, migrants use the persecution justification to pursue the economic motive, Ries noted.

“There are 193 countries on this planet, so if you are truly fleeing for your life, then you should go to the first safe country that you enter,” she said, “You should not be able to country shop and go through multiple safe countries without getting protection there, just because you want to get to the U.S.”

Cultural differences play a role in immigration’s impact on the host country, said Morland.

“What has a very big impact is when people from very radically different cultures arrive,” he said, “They look very different, their practices are very different, their belief systems and values are very different. And the assumption has to be that they will take longer to integrate.”

In America, immigration has historically been associated with positive outcomes, Javier Palomarez, president and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council, told The Epoch Times.

“Since its inception, America has thrived by attracting the best and brightest from around the world to contribute to our innovation, economy, and society as whole,” said in a statement sent by email.

“After all, America was founded on the idea that you could leave your former life behind, start anew, and build something for yourself and your family.”

There are reasons behind that success.

“This idea is reliant on the invisible pillars that hold this nation together and attract contributors from around the world: freedom, opportunity, respect for family, patriotism, law and order, and a strong set of rules and guidelines that enable competition and encourage growth,” said Palomarez.

The “ubiquity of English” in much of Africa, Asia, and Latin America also made the United States and Britain attractive for many migrants, said Morland.

Birth of the Immigration Law Industry

In the 1990s, migrants and human traffickers began to realize that if they could get into their destination country and then claim asylum, they could use legal avenues to prevent being deported, Tony Smith, a former director general of the UK Border Force, told The Epoch Times.

“This gave birth to an industry of immigration lawyers who would support migrants who entered your country illegally,” Smith said. “That had the effect of preventing removals, at least temporarily, whilst that application was processed.”

He said the fact that the asylum-seekers had usually passed through numerous safe countries en route made no difference.

“You have people from all over the world coming in through Mexico because they want to go to the U.S.,” said Smith. “They’re not interested in getting refuge in Mexico or South America.”

A masked migrant illegally crosses into the United States outside of San Diego, Calif., on Dec. 5, 2023. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

But President Donald Trump has upended the system.

“He is doing things that actually will horrify some judges and some lawyers,” said Smith, “[but] he’s had a very significant effect, both in terms of reducing illegal migration across the southern border, but also in terms of the inland activity by [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] to arrest people who should not be in the U.S., and by exerting political pressure on those countries that have traditionally said, ‘We’re not taking our own people back again.’”

Morland said in countries with grinding poverty, long-distance migration is unlikely.

“Ironically, it’s when people get off the floor [that migration happens],” Morland said. “They get a bit of money. They get an iPhone. They can see what the world’s like. They can afford an airfare. They maybe have already got an uncle in London or Paris. That’s when they move, not when they’re absolutely dirt poor and ignorant sitting in the village.”

Morland said it is also unlikely that migrants would return to countries like Afghanistan, Syria, or Sudan even when peace is restored.

“If the Taliban were overturned, and a beautiful liberal democracy were formed in Afghanistan, I hardly think anyone could go back,” Morland said. “Over many, many years, if that then led to economic prosperity, maybe.”

He said “unforced remigration” is going to be fairly limited from countries such as the United States, Canada, and Germany, where per-capita incomes are $50,000 or more.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) holds a photo of Army Spc. Sarah Beckstrom, a West Virginia National Guard member who was shot near the White House on Nov. 26, in Washington on Dec. 2, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

National Security and ‘Open Border Welfare State’

Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, the Afghan national who has been charged with the first-degree murder of Army Spc. Sarah Beckstrom, 20, and assaulting Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe with intent to kill, in Washington, had worked with the CIA during the war in Afghanistan.

He was one of around 76,000 Afghans allowed to resettle in the United States under a Biden-era resettlement program, Operation Allies Welcome.

It has since faced intense scrutiny from Trump and other U.S. officials over allegations of gaps in the vetting process.

Ries said the president’s actions were a valid response to the Washington shooting, and what the Biden administration had done “in terms of opening the border, and mass paroling of hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of inadmissible aliens from around the world.”

Trump’s return to the White House this January also marked the culmination of many American voters’ frustration with the country’s immigration-related policies and concerns about national security, Ries noted.

“People got so fed up with the open border welfare state that we were living in that they voted against that last November,” she said.

“They wanted the border secure. They wanted the portable aliens removed, and they want taxpayer dollars to go to Americans first, not people who aren’t supposed to be here.”

Declining Birth Rate in the US

The global migration crisis also comes amid wildly contrasting fertility rates between the West and the Third World.

Africa has some of the highest rates in the world. Somalia, Chad, Niger, and the Congo all have fertility rates of six or above.

In 1960, the fertility rate in the United States was between four and five. By 2023, that number had halved to 2.2, approaching 2.1, the minimum level at which a population is able to replace itself from one generation to the next.

Macroeconomist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde called low fertility rates “the true economic challenge of our time” in a February report for the American Enterprise Institute.

Palomarez, the president and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council, said immigration has been part of the solution for this challenge.

“At the end of the day, especially given our declining birth rate, our nation is reliant upon a steady stream of immigrant workers and entrepreneurs,” Palomarez said.

Ries said the baby bust in the United States should be addressed at a fundamental level.

“The falling fertility rate in America is the result of a long-term destructive campaign against marriage, families, and having children, and so we just need to wake up from this decades-long nightmare of anti-family, anti-marriage, anti-children policies and agenda, and return to how God made us.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/20/2025 - 23:20

An AI Campaign War Is Coming: Boomers Vs. Doomers

Zero Hedge -

An AI Campaign War Is Coming: Boomers Vs. Doomers

The battle over artificial intelligence policy is moving from Washington hearing rooms to the campaign trail, where two rival political efforts are preparing to spend at least $150 million to shape the outcome of federal and state elections.

The clash pits industry-backed advocates for rapid AI development against a bipartisan group of former lawmakers calling for stronger regulation and tighter export controls. The scale of the planned spending exceeds the roughly $100 million deployed by crypto-aligned political groups during the 2024 election cycle, Punchbowl News reports.

Unlike the crypto push, however, the emerging AI fight features two organized camps preparing to go head-to-head: pro-industry “AI boomers” and regulation-minded “AI doomers,” each seeking to influence lawmakers and voters ahead of the 2026 midterms.

BOOMERS: AI To The Moon Under One National Framework

On the pro-AI side is Leading the Future, a group of industry-backed super PACs seeded with money from technology leaders and venture capital interests. The effort has received early backing from OpenAI President Greg Brockman, venture capital firm a16z, and Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale, and is preparing to spend up to $100 million.

Josh Vlasto, who is co-leading the group’s political strategy, said the goal is to elect candidates supportive of a national, federal-led approach to AI regulation.

"You will see a broad consensus in Congress to have the federal government lead on creating a national, pro-AI, pro-America regulatory framework," Vlasto said.

That approach reflects industry concerns that a patchwork of state-level AI laws could hinder U.S. competitiveness, particularly in the race with China. While Vlasto said his group supports the idea of a federal AI standard, he indicated that policy specifics would be handled by a related advocacy organization.

Leading the Future is expected to support candidates who favor federal preemption of state AI regulations. Vlasto, who also served as a spokesperson for Fairshake - the crypto-aligned super PAC that backed more than 50 candidates in 2024 - declined to set a limit on how many races the AI-focused group might enter.

The group has already signaled its willingness to play offense, announcing plans to spend against New York State Assemblymember Alex Bores, a Democrat who has supported state-level AI regulation and is running for Congress.

Vlasto said the organization is designed to move quickly as policy debates evolve and has leaned heavily into digital advertising, though it has also purchased television spots.

This is a highly dynamic moment in this policy debate,” he said. “We are built… to use our resources and bring the AI sector together to advocate for this agenda.”

In short, AI Boomers want:

  1. Federal preemption of state AI laws: one national AI framework, not 50 state regimes. States like New York or California passing their own AI rules are seen as a threat to innovation.

  2. Light-touch federal regulation: Support a “federal standard,” but generally oppose detailed, prescriptive rules. Policy specifics are often deferred to industry-friendly agencies or advisory bodies.

  3. Speed over precaution: The belief is that slowing deployment risks losing the global AI race, especially to China. Safety, bias, and misuse concerns are viewed as manageable after deployment.

  4. Industry-driven governance: AI companies should have a major role in shaping the rules that govern them. Regulatory capture is not how they describe it; they frame it as “technical expertise.”

DOOMERS: Control AI before it reshapes society

On the opposing side, former Reps. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) and Brad Carson (D-Okla.) are launching two separate super PACs aimed at boosting candidates who favor stronger AI regulation and export controls.

Together, the PACs aim to raise $50 million for the 2026 cycle - roughly half the amount promised by Leading the Future, but enough, organizers say, to compete with tech industry spending.

Most people are anxious about AI. They’re not opposed to it, they’re anxious,” Carson said, arguing that public concern about the pace of AI development is being underestimated.

Carson criticized what he described as tech companies’ “accelerationist YOLO agenda” and said his PACs would disclose their donors in the coming months.

The groups plan to support candidates for the House and Senate and are also considering investments in state legislative races and gubernatorial contests. Carson said spending decisions will be made across television, digital platforms, and other media as appropriate, with endorsements coming from both political parties.

Two policy issues are central to the effort: AI regulation and export controls on advanced AI chips bound for China.

Carson said the PACs will support candidates “who favor strong export controls,” and he reiterated opposition to President Trump’s decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced AI chips to China. Carson, who serves as president of Americans for Responsible Innovation, has argued that export restrictions are critical to national security.

The PACs will also back candidates who believe government has a role in regulating AI, including allowing states to act in the absence of a federal framework.

Doomer priorities:

  1. Meaningful regulation, not just federal symbolism: They want enforceable rules on: Model deployment. Safety testing, Transparency, Accountability for harm. 

  2. State authority as a backstop - not a takeover: States should be allowed to regulate AI if Congress fails to act.

    • This mirrors how states regulate: Consumer protection, Data privacy, Product safety, State involvement is seen as a pressure mechanism, not the ideal endpoint.

  3. Export controls and national security: They strongly support restricting advanced AI chips to China. They view unfettered exports as a strategic and military risk.

  4. Public trust as a strategic asset: Their argument is that if voters lose confidence in AI, politicians will overcorrect. Early guardrails are framed as pro-innovation, not anti-innovation.

Competing visions for AI’s future

While Carson and Stewart reject the label “anti-AI,” they argue that guardrails are necessary to maintain public trust in the technology.

“Big tech has lost the confidence of the American people,” Carson said. “And if the American people don’t believe in [AI], you’re going to see politicians turn against it in a very severe way.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 12/20/2025 - 22:45

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