Individual Economists

Europe's Chemical Sector 'Will Disappear' Under Weight Of EU Green Deal, CEOs Sound Alarm

Zero Hedge -

Europe's Chemical Sector 'Will Disappear' Under Weight Of EU Green Deal, CEOs Sound Alarm

Via Remix News,

The visible decline in production in Europe’s chemical sector could soon have far more serious consequences. Production capacity is disappearing, and the further consequences will be alarming, warn leaders of the largest companies in an industry that recently experienced a period of prosperity.

They are calling for swift and far-reaching changes to EU law, writes Polish Business Insider.

In just a few years, nearly 10 percent of production capacity on the Old Continent has disappeared. Industry representatives are warning that cheaper products from Asia and the Middle East are taking their place, as European companies suffocate under the weight of energy prices, CO2 costs, and a thicket of regulations. This is the view of both state-owned (Azoty), private (Qemetica), and foreign companies operating in Poland (BASF).

The chemical sector accounts for approximately 7 percent of the EU’s total industry and generates over 1 million direct jobs, with 3-5 times as many indirect jobs, primarily in small and medium-sized companies. Meanwhile, according to Katarzyna Byczkowska, CEO of BASF Polska, over the last three years, approximately 9 percent of chemical production capacity has been liquidated in Europe, and in 2023-2024, the European chemical industry alone will shrink by 14 percent. During this same period, chemical production grew in countries such as China, Russia, and the United States.

“In Europe, we’re playing a different game than the rest of the world, but on the same playing field. We’re starting to lose,” warns Kamil Majczak, CEO of Qemetika (formerly Ciech), during a debate organized by Siemens with other representatives of the chemical sector. In his opinion, Europe still believes it can impose its rules on others, while China, the U.S., and India view the world as a field for expanding their spheres of influence and taking over markets.

“We can’t expect developing countries to suddenly make everything green, three times more expensive, because we think it’s the right thing to do,” he adds.

Majczak emphasizes that the consequences of rising costs are already tangible. More and more plants are closing in Europe, and some companies have survived the last two or three years by leveraging previous profits. “This buffer is running out, and once a plant closes, it won’t reopen. People will leave, production capacity will disappear, and it won’t return after a year or two,” warns the CEO of Qemetica.

In the case of fertilizers, the price of gas accounts for 75-80 percent of the product’s production cost. For years, Europe has been an importer, now forced to use much more expensive sources than before. This poses a significant challenge for fertilizer companies like Azoty.

This is especially an issue for the chemical sector, as it is such an energy-intensive industry, says Paweł Bielski, vice-president of Grupa Azoty.

“At certain points, gas in the U.S. was 4-6 times cheaper than in Europe,” recalls Katarzyna Byczkowska, CEO of BASF Poland. The differences in energy costs are immediately visible in the profit and loss accounts of European and American plants, admits Kamil Majczak, CEO of Qemetica, who compares the results of factories in Europe and the US. CO2 emissions fees must also be added to the total, which, Majczak says, are practically nonexistent outside of Europe, with the exception of a specific system in California.

Industry representatives emphasize that they are not questioning the direction of decarbonization, but the pace, scale, and structure of regulatory burdens in a situation where Europe is already starting from a worse position, because it is more expensive in terms of energy.

Katarzyna Byczkowska highlights two levels of regulatory costs.

First, there are direct costs resulting from regulatory compliance, as in the case of the EU’s CLP regulation. The change in font on chemical labels was reportedly costing her company over €300 million before, after a year of intense negotiations, some of the provisions were withdrawn.

Second, there is the increasing structural burden resulting from the sheer number and volatility of regulations, which generate chaos, reduce predictability, and drain resources from research and development.

“In Europe, we already spend twice as much on regulatory compliance as on research and development,” notes the head of BASF Poland. Across the continent, this translates to an 8 percent decline in R&D spending, while in China and the US, spending is rising year over year.

Paweł Bielski, Vice President of Grupa Azoty, points out that the EU climate package and subsequent elements of Fit for 55 were developed under completely different conditions than those in which the industry operates today. “The Green Deal was adopted when no one took into account the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, or the rapid change in Europe’s energy balance,” he argues. In his opinion, the direction of decarbonization will remain unchanged, even if some regulations are formally suspended, but the rules themselves should be improved.

A symbolic example is the ETS system, or emissions trading. Free allowances are shrinking every year, and, as Byczkowska explains, companies are unable to “add” another billion euros a year to purchase certificates in a time of crisis and blocked new investments. “We need someone to stop tightening their grip on us even more,” she says.

The clash between European climate ambitions and the realities of global competition is most acute in the clash with Asian production. “We used to be an exporter, now we’re an importer, and that fundamentally disrupts the balance,” says Majczak. China has built vast, modern production capacities in recent years to satisfy its own market, but the slowdown in demand has freed up a significant portion of this capacity for export. 

Taking advantage of cheaper energy and less restrictive regulations, Chinese producers are aggressively entering the European market, from fertilizers to plastics.

Paweł Bielski points out that until recently, Europe had a strong polymer industry, including the production of polyamides for automotive, construction, and packaging. Today, China’s dominance is overwhelming in many segments — in one of them, as he points out, as much as 67 percent of global production capacity is already located in China. He believes a similar trend is visible in fertilizers: Massive installations are being built in Russia, the U.S., and the Persian Gulf countries, which will not consume all of their production domestically, but will instead direct it to Europe, among other countries.

One positive sign is that technological advances reduce costs. “We’re seeing increased activity from companies investing in solutions that enable faster, cheaper, and safer production,” says Maciej Zieliński, CEO of Siemens Polska.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 05:00

Visualizing The Changing Political Affiliation By Generation In The US

Zero Hedge -

Visualizing The Changing Political Affiliation By Generation In The US

Political identity in the U.S. is changing, and the divide is increasingly generational.

Younger Americans are stepping away from traditional party labels, while older generations remain more closely tied to the two-party system.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows how political affiliation varies across generations, highlighting the growing role of independents in American politics.

The data comes from Gallup. It is based on annual averages from Gallup’s telephone interviews, asking respondents whether they identify as Republican, Democrat, or independent. “No opinion” responses are excluded, and figures may not total 100% due to rounding.

Younger Generations Favor Being Independents

A majority of both Generation Z and Millennials identify as independents. Among Gen Z, 56% say they are independent, compared with just 17% identifying as Republican and 27% as Democrat. Millennials show a similar pattern, with 54% identifying as independent.

 

Party Loyalty Rises With Age

 

Political affiliation becomes more evenly split among older generations. Generation X shows a more balanced distribution, with 31% Republican, 25% Democrat, and 42% independent. Among Baby Boomers, party identification nearly overtakes independence altogether.

The Silent Generation is the most partisan group, with roughly seven in 10 identifying as either Republican or Democrat. This cohort came of age during periods when party affiliation was more stable and closely tied to identity, such as the New Deal era and the Cold War.

Implications for U.S. Politics

The rise of independents among younger generations has major implications for elections and governance. While independents may still lean toward one party, their lack of formal affiliation makes voter behavior less predictable. It also complicates messaging for political parties trying to mobilize younger voters.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Distribution of Income in America (2024 vs 1974) on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 04:15

Spain's Prime Minister Tries To Cover Up Corruption With Censorship

Zero Hedge -

Spain's Prime Minister Tries To Cover Up Corruption With Censorship

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The Spanish Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has appeared at a summit along with autocratic and undemocratic leaders from Georgia and Burundi to talk about protecting citizens and democracy. Fascinating. It is very revealing.

The president talks about protecting minors from the harms of social networks and launches tirades against alleged techno-oligarchs. However, the evidence shows that beneath the supposedly “noble” goal of protecting minors, there is an agenda that includes the introduction of digital identities, biometric control for all, and prior censorship accompanied by state surveillance.

It is obvious to everyone that the objective is to silence independent media.

If the digital control law had been implemented in 2018, the corruption scandals surrounding the Socialist government would never have come to light. Koldo García, accused of embezzlement, would still be a member of the board of public train company Renfe today; Jose Luis Ábalos, under investigation for various corruption scandals, would still be minister; Salazar, investigated for sexual assault, would be an exemplary socialist; Venezuela’s dictatorship’s Delcy Rodriguez would be a VIP nighttime visitor; and the Socialist party’s number two, Santos Cerdán, would still be “Super Santos.” For Sánchez, all those cases were “disinformation” and “fake news” from the “far right”; do not forget it.

If he really cared about teenagers, he would not condemn them to unemployment and ruin and would give greater responsibility to parents, based on freedom. But he wants to ban access to social media because the goal is to silence dissenters.

It is no surprise that his words have been met with enormous enthusiasm by millionaires such as Alex, the son of George Soros, or by defenders of censorship and propaganda who see their dream of social engineering and control slipping away these days.

Hadn’t this inquisition shifted to Bluesky, with the intention of ending X and establishing the true social majority? They treat Bluesky as though it were a non-governmental organization.

Curiously, what Sánchez calls techno-oligarchs does not bother him if they serve his interests. Elon Musk, when aligned with the Democrats, set a global example. Sánchez courted Soros, Gates, Fink, and anyone he could for years. If anyone has used social networks to spread hate, division, polarization, and disinformation, it has been his government and his far‑left partners. However, it is important to note that his objective is not to restrict young people’s access to communist propaganda messages, but rather to prevent them from voting for the right. They thought teens were ideal and wanted them to vote when they thought they’d vote left. Now, when they see that young people are of no use to them, they launch their other favorite social‑engineering tool: the mass regularization of irregular immigrants.

Sanchez lies on immigration policy by deliberately misleading the public about the regularization of illegal immigrants in the country with the highest unemployment rate in the euro area. This tactic serves as a form of social engineering and control, similar to his digital protection strategy, rather than being based on economic logic.

This is not solidarity. The objective is to create a dependent subclass, buy votes, and inflate GDP through immigration, which is why, according to the IMF, Spain’s per capita GDP is expected to increase by only 1.1% from 2017 to 2026 with 10% “official” unemployment (14% real). It delays all those trying to enter legally and passes the enormous cost and social challenges to taxpayers.

Cornered by corruption and the disastrous management of infrastructure and public services, Sánchez launches yet another smokescreen operation to try to silence independent opinions.

The reality? His flagship socialist propaganda projects have failed, TikTok has not helped them win elections, and freedom is advancing. That is what bothers them.

The far left perceives X as a threat, yet none of their criticisms mention TikTok. One is free, and the other is controlled by a dictatorship. Fascinating.

The left loves social networks and billionaires when they serve its purpose of control.

Just remember how thrilled they were with Davos a few years ago. What bothers them is freedom and diversity of opinion. Furthermore, what fills them with uncontrollable rage is that the Grok community dismantles their propaganda in the notes section.

If Musk calls Sánchez a traitor and a tyrant, it is a grave insult against an elected president and against Spain, according to the extreme left, but if socialists and the far left call the elected president of the United States or of Argentina a murderer, dictator, fascist, Nazi, terrorist, and racist, that is fantastic and normal.

The evidence of X’s independence and plurality is that every time I open the app, I see posts from socialist cheerleaders, whom I neither follow nor search for.

All this crisis is yet another example of Sánchez’s mastery in applying the 11 principles of propaganda, especially that of the single enemy and reversal: demonizing a supposed all‑powerful enemy to present himself as victim and savior, and accusing everyone else of being guilty of corruption and negligence, pointing at others to cover his government’s issues.

Whenever corruption scandals or negligence in infrastructure management put the Spanish government under fire, Sanchez creates a smokescreen and applies the main propaganda principles to shift attention. His favorite tactic is to select a “special enemy” for vilification. The far-left government even fabricated a fake “bomb threat” to portray Sanchez as both a victim and a savior to stay in power at any cost. Sanchez has targeted various groups for vilification, including tech companies, energy companies, banks, supermarkets, social media, the independent press, specific nations, and any political opponent, as well as the far-left government’s favorite tactic, promoting antisemitism. Choose one. Divert attention. Move on.

A man who is incapable of winning elections presents himself as the voice of the social majority. It is ridiculous when he is held hostage by the minorities that keep him in power. And power is the only thing he cares about. That is why he seeks censorship at all costs, to silence the majority that does not suit him.

Sánchez wants to create a state of surveillance and censorship in Spain under the pretext of digital “protection.” To all the Sánchez-aligned press that is defending this outrage against freedom of expression, maybe thinking that being political commissars will benefit them, I would like to remind them that purges come afterwards.

If you believe that supporting Sánchez’s totalitarian whims will be advantageous for you, remember that actions you consider acceptable when “your side” does them can also be used by the opposing side against you.

Disinformation and polarization may happen in a free society, but those risks are 100% certain when information is controlled by the state.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 03:30

Humanoid Robot Nails Perfect Backflip As Mobility Progress Accelerates At Scary Pace

Zero Hedge -

Humanoid Robot Nails Perfect Backflip As Mobility Progress Accelerates At Scary Pace

Boston Dynamics has released new footage of its flagship humanoid robot program, "Atlas," showcasing next-level mobility and reinforcing our greatest fears that when these bots are paired with "brains," adoption can quickly move from factory floors to offensive defense missions.

"Now that the Atlas enterprise platform is getting to work, the research version gets one last run in the sun. Our engineers made one final push to test the limits of full-body control and mobility, with help from the RAI Institute," Boston Dynamics, which is owned by Hyundai Motor Group, wrote in the description of a video titled "Atlas Airborne."

The video shows Atlas pulling off an impressive cartwheel, capped by a near-perfect backflip landing, at the Robotics & AI Institute testing facility. The institute is a research organization focused on solving fundamental challenges in robotics and AI. The video also highlights several other mobility accomplishments.

What's clear to us is that these humanoid robots are set to march en masse onto assembly lines, warehouses, and other factory floors this year.

As we noted earlier, “robot brains” are already here, accelerating the shift from promotional stunts to real-world use cases and, ultimately, mass commercial adoption across manufacturing settings.

We think there is a rising probability here, frankly high enough that someone should start a Polymarket bet, that humanoid robots for dual use could show up at testing grounds in Ukraine as soon as this year.

We have warned about the dual-use risk even as leading companies, including Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, ANYbotics, Clearpath Robotics, Open Robotics, Unitree, and Figure AI, publicly state they will not weaponize their bots.

To our knowledge, Foundation is the only U.S. humanoid robotics developer with an offensive contract with the Department of Defense.

Read the latest on where the humanoid robotics space is headed:

These bots have gone from clunky machines that could barely walk in a straight line to running and doing flips in just several years. Our reporting should give readers a framework for the 2030s that makes dual-use humanoid robots unavoidable.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 02:45

Germany Rejects Billion-Euro Data Center: Bureaucracy Wins

Zero Hedge -

Germany Rejects Billion-Euro Data Center: Bureaucracy Wins

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In Groß-Gerau, Hesse, a billion-euro project has been blocked by citizen opposition and the local council’s majority. The town now seems the epitome of Germany’s decline: backward-looking, stubborn, and hopelessly lost in an era that leaves no room for passive solipsism.

With roughly 27,000 residents, Groß-Gerau benefits from direct connections to Frankfurt and Darmstadt, making it an ideal commuter town. Here lives Germany’s traditional middle class: partly insulated from the nation’s economic and social upheavals, yet close enough to major developments to suddenly find itself in the public eye.

CDU Votes for the Project

Last week, the town council rejected a data center from the U.S. company Vantage Data Centers following protests from residents. With votes from SPD, Greens, and the Left, the town turned down a private investment of roughly €2.5 billion. 

Visualization of the planned data center by Vantage Data Centers in Groß-Gerau.

The planned facility would have been part of the Rhein-Main region’s digital infrastructure, anchored by DE-CIX, one of the world’s most significant internet hubs. It’s about the world’s new data highways—AI, autonomous systems, autonomous driving, cloud solutions—all the infrastructure major economies like the U.S. and China rely on to escape economic stagnation.

For Germany, these developments are treated as marginal at best. The prevailing attitude cloaks itself in ideological-moral superiority, using regulation to ensure companies and users do not “go too far.” In European politics, the digital sphere is little more than a playground for polemic opposition and petty criticism of the master plan to build a green-socialist ideal state.

With an 18-14 vote, the town council ultimately opposed the project. Only the CDU, alongside the Kombi-FWG, supported it. This illuminates German political dynamics: absent the AfD, the CDU surprisingly acts independently—even defying the so-called “firewall” party cartel. Could this hint at Germany’s potential political liberation? Or was this local CDU action merely a fluke within the party’s otherwise steadfast Brussels-aligned ideology?

The proposed site would have been a few hundred meters from residential areas, separated by an industrial park. Yet this was enough for alleged noise concerns to dominate local discourse. The Greens argued the data center would create “heat corridors” and depress property values—a concern never applied when building wind turbines. While public interest routinely overrode private property during wind farm construction, here ideology replaced rational risk assessment. From the outset, local politics sought excuses to kill the project—driven by avoidance, fear of responsibility, and bureaucratic inertia.

Excuses and Evasion

Justifications for rejecting the investment were as bizarre as they were German: timid, defensive, and devoid of any vision. Expected tax revenues were deemed insufficient, potential jobs minimal—excuse piled on excuse. Bureaucracy has so deeply entrenched itself that private investment is now perceived as a threat rather than an opportunity.

This system has eroded abstraction skills and converted real weakness into moral superiority. The future is no longer seen as malleable, change is perceived as a burden, and imagination is systematically weakened. People learn to follow rules instead of solving problems.

The solution is breaking free from this iron cage of regulation—reviving innovation and building the infrastructure essential for tomorrow’s economy.

The Gaulish Village of Green Ideologues

German politics has never had a serious problem dispossessing homeowners for wind turbines. So-called citizen participation is little more than soothing ointment over real, material losses imposed on residents. Even symbolic compensation schemes in some states fail to address the structural disregard for property rights. Private property is viewed with suspicion and treated as a fiscal quarry for ideological ambitions.

Groß-Gerau’s project could have been a chance to implement a market-oriented model of fair compensation, putting economic principles above ideological command politics. Instead, Germany remains in a psychological “Gaulish village”: perpetually defensive against modernization, with bureaucracy and NGOs nurturing provincialism.

For U.S. companies, this is standard practice: property rights enforce serious negotiations with affected residents, or litigation ensures balance. France offers a contrasting example: President Emmanuel Macron recently poured €30 million into his nation’s “Silicon Valley,” while U.S. private investment dwarfs such state initiatives by hundreds of billions. The lesson is clear: Europe remains shackled by centralization, unable to compete with more agile, market-oriented systems.

It’s high time Germany abandoned climate-socialist rigidity and started embracing new business models. Stubbornness and timidity should no longer prevent the country from recognizing opportunities for growth and innovation.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 02/09/2026 - 02:00

Epstein's Gates To Pandemonium

Zero Hedge -

Epstein's Gates To Pandemonium

Authored by Jordi Pigem via the Brownstone Institute,

“We are going to have fun,” writes Jeffrey Epstein on December 7, 2009.

This phrase is his reply to an email by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Science Advisor (and Scientific Advisor to Bill Gates), Boris Nikolic, who is making a list of “raising stars,” many of them scientists, that they “should visit together.”

By then, everyone must have known that Epstein was a notorious, convicted sex offender. He had been released from jail only a few months before, on July 22. He had been under investigation since 2005: federal officials had identified three dozen girls whom Epstein had allegedly sexually abused (after a controversial plea deal agreed by the US Department of Justice, he was only convicted of two crimes). Why would a high ranking official of Gates’ Foundation want to organize meetings between Epstein and prominent scientists? If it was about money, surely they could find better-looking investors. What, eventually, were they “going to have fun” with?

Source: EFTA01822311.pdf

One of the revelations of the latest batch of Epstein files is his strong interest in viruses, vaccines, pandemics, and mRNA. Two months after getting out of jail, he is writing about viruses, infectious diseases, and something he calls “My BIG idea.”

Source: EFTA00739886.pdf

Or, for instance, in January 2010, he was discussing mRNA and codons.

The latest batch documents of the investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, released on January 30, consists of over 3 million pages, with many names redacted. A helpful simulation of Epstein’s inbox has been created, fully searchable and giving access to the contents of over 7,000 emails. With keywords and patience the original documents can then be located on the DOJ website.

The trio Epstein-Nikolic-Gates also features prominently in a long agreement letter sent by Epstein to Gates. According to this 2013 document, Gates “specifically requested” Epstein to “personally serve as the representative” of Nikolic in negotiations over the termination of his work with Gates. The first section of this six-page letter states: “Mr. Gates acknowledges that Mr. Epstein has an existing collegial relationship with Mr. Gates in which Mr. Epstein received confidential and/or proprietary information from Mr. Gates.” An analysis of its contents and wider implications can be found in a detailed article by Sayer Ji on Epstein, Gates, and “Pandemics as a Business Model.”

In March 2017, two and a half years before Event 201, three years before Covid-19 was officially declared a pandemic by the WHO, an email thread involving Gates and bgC3 (Bill Gates Catalyst 3, now Gates Ventures) speaks of “pandemic simulation.”

Source: EFTA02381427.pdf

A number of emails in the Epstein files speak of pandemic preparedness. One of them, from March 2015, explicitly invites to discuss “how to officially involve the WHO” for the sake of “co-branding” (it looks like the “product” to “co-brand” is a pandemic).

Source: EFTA00861674.pdf

In 2017, an email from Boris Nikolic addressed to both Epstein and Gates (four years after the agreement letter about Epstein mediating the rupture between Nikolic and Gates) mentions “pandemic” as a key area for a Donor Advised Fund.

Source: EFTA02389903.pdf

Nikolic was later named as executor in Epstein’s will, signed two days before his death, officially by suicide, in August 2019. (As I’m writing this, a friend points out to me that according to Fortnite Tracker, a player with Epstein’s username, littlestjeff1, was still playing, from Israel, in 2024…)

Epstein was a node in a large network of darkness, and the release of the files may be a threshold into it. In a video interview included in the release, Epstein tells Steve Bannon that he is only “tier-one,” “the lowest level” of sexual predator. As researcher Whitney Webb has stated in conversation with James Corbett:

Jeffrey Epstein was as much a financial criminal as a sex criminal. There’s a very particular reason why mainstream media only wants to talk about his sex crimes between 2000 and 2006. Jeffrey Epstein was also not an anomaly in the network in which he operated. Numerous people engage in sex blackmail and sex trafficking. If you think these issues died with Jeffrey Epstein, you are sorely mistaken. […] And if you were to pull on the Epstein thread, I guess you could say, you start to unravel a lot of the bigger picture.

In early 2020, not everyone knew the word pandemic. Much less familiar still was the word (more common until 1900) pandemonium. The Shorter Oxford English Dictionary defines pandemonium, in its first sense, as “the abode of all demons” and, later on, as “a place or state of utter confusion and uproar.” Covid was a pandemonium: it did generate a “state of utter confusion.” The word was coined by John Milton in Paradise Lost (1667), where Pandemonium is “the palace of Satan,” “the high capital of Satan and his peers,” and “city and proud seat of Lucifer.” Other than the prefix pan- (Greek for “all”), these words are unrelated.

It seems Gates and Epstein were much closer than it had been assumed. Gates brings to mind, among other things, pandemic preparedness (as in CEPI, the “Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations,” and Event 201, both of which had the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as key funder). Epstein brings to mind a darkness that involved horrible violence to children and, most likely, explicit invocation of powerful evil forces — as is increasingly common in the highest tiers of political, economic, and technological power. Gates and Epstein, pandemic and pandemonium, may be closer than we thought.

A final word. We find ourselves in a world that, to a large extent, is morally, cognitively, and spiritually already collapsing. To face this darkness without being bulldozed by it, it is essential to be aware that the primordial Source of reality (call it God or what makes sense to you) is ultimately Light, Goodness, and Truth. And that is what shall prevail at the end.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 23:20

Loeffler: SBA Suspends Over 100,000 California Borrowers In Pandemic-Loan Fraud Sweep

Zero Hedge -

Loeffler: SBA Suspends Over 100,000 California Borrowers In Pandemic-Loan Fraud Sweep

The U.S. Small Business Administration said Friday it has suspended more than 100,000 California borrowers amid suspected fraud tied to pandemic-era relief programs, a move the agency said represents one of the largest enforcement actions since Covid-19 aid was rolled out.

Kelly Loeffler, administrator of the Small Business Administration, during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., Oct. 27, 2025.  (Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

111,620 California borrowers were linked to suspected fraudulent activity involving Paycheck Protection Program and Economic Injury Disaster Loan funds. Those borrowers received 118,489 loans totaling more than $8.6 billion, according to the agency.

SBA Administrator Kelly Loeffler said the action reflects a broader crackdown on abuse of emergency lending programs created during the pandemic. “Once again, the Trump SBA is taking decisive action to deliver accountability in a state whose unaccountable welfare policies have created a culture of fraud and abuse at the expense of law-abiding taxpayers and small business owners,” Loeffler said in a statement.

The programs were designed to help businesses stay afloat during pandemic shutdowns - however both have been plagued by fraud since their rapid deployment, prompting years of investigations by federal watchdogs and law-enforcement agencies.

The California action follows a similar enforcement effort announced last month in Minnesota, where the SBA said it suspended 6,900 borrowers after identifying what it described as widespread suspected fraud. In that review, the agency flagged nearly $400 million in potentially fraudulent PPP and EIDL loans tied to about 7,900 approvals during the pandemic, according to Loeffler. 

“As we did in Minnesota, we are actively working with federal law enforcement to identify the criminals who defrauded American taxpayers, hold them to account and recoup the stolen funds,” Loeffler said. “As we continue our state-by-state work, our message is clear: Pandemic-era fraudsters will not get a pass under this administration.”

The SBA has previously said at least $2.5 million in PPP and EIDL funds were linked to a Somali-connected fraud scheme based in Minneapolis, underscoring how organized networks exploited gaps in oversight as billions of dollars were rushed out the door during the public-health emergency.

Loeffler said the scale of the California suspensions highlights what she characterized as years of insufficient enforcement. The announcement criticized what she described as tolerance of fraud under the Biden administration, while framing the current actions as part of a renewed push under the Trump administration to recover misspent funds and pursue criminal accountability.

The SBA said its review of pandemic lending is ongoing, with additional state-by-state actions expected as investigations continue.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 21:35

What's The Likelihood Of A Global Nuclear Arms Race?

Zero Hedge -

What's The Likelihood Of A Global Nuclear Arms Race?

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

Russia and China are expected to reciprocally respond to the US’ potential development of new nukes and/or new nuke tests after it just let the New START lapse, which could be exploited by European and East Asian countries to develop their own nukes, thus emboldening some Muslim ones to follow suit.

RT reported on German politician Sahra Wagenknecht’s condemnation of a prominent AfD politician for claiming that Germany “needs nuclear weapons”, which followed ruling CDU lawmaker Roderich Kiesewetter calling for their country to participate in a European nuclear umbrella. The context concerns France’s proposal last year of extending its own such umbrella over the EU amid newfound fears among some European elites that a US invasion of Greenland could lead to it removing the EU from its umbrella.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz just confirmed that Berlin is exploring this. NBC News cited six European officials a week prior to report that options “include improving France’s nuclear weaponry, redeploying French nuclear-capable bombers outside of France, and beefing up French and other European conventional forces on NATO’s eastern flank. Another option under discussion is to equip European countries that do not have nuclear weapons programs with the technical abilities to acquire them.”

RT’s report reminded readers that “Germany is prohibited from developing nuclear weapons under international law, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the Two Plus Four Treaty”. Nevertheless, international law is only upheld if there are credible enforcement mechanisms or the political will to unilaterally enforce international law if the aforesaid no longer exist, which is arguably the case at present due to the UNSC’s dysfunctional deadlock over the past decade.

So long as Germany is under someone’s nuclear umbrella and they have the political will to uphold their commitment, whether that’s the US, France, and/or the UK, then it’s unlikely that Russia would risk World War III by attacking Germany if it begins developing nukes. The same goes for any other European country like Poland or the Nordics, the first of which already strongly implied its future intent to develop nukes while a Norwegian lieutenant colonel introduced the second in an article at War On The Rocks.

The “publicly plausible” pretext for either extending France’s and/or the UK’s nuclear umbrella over the EU, including to reinforce the US’ if it isn’t removed, and/or the abovementioned countries developing nukes could be Russia’s reciprocal response to the US’ potential development of new nukes and/or new nuke tests. Trump 2.0’s decision to let the New START with Russia lapse instead of agree to Putin’s proposal for extending it another year releases the US from its legal obligations not to do any of that.

It’s therefore possible that a nuclear arms race could erupt between not only the US on one side and Russia (and China) on the other, but also between the EU and Russia, possibly with the US being the one that transfers nuclear technology to its EU allies. In that scenario, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye might no longer restrain themselves either, the first two driven by perceived threats from China and/or North Korea and the last two by those from Israel (possibly with technical support from Pakistan).

The world is on the brink of a global nuclear arms race. John Mearsheimer argues that “nuclear weapons are a superb deterrent” since “no state is likely to attack the homeland or vital interests of a nuclear-armed state for fear that such a move might trigger a horrific nuclear response”, but this assumes that states are rational, which some EU ones arguably aren’t. Instead of stabilizing the world and preserving peace, a global nuclear arms race might destabilize it and spike the risk of an accidental nuclear war.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 21:00

The Idiocracy That Is California Politics

Zero Hedge -

The Idiocracy That Is California Politics

Authored by William Andersen via The Mises Institute,

After having lived in California the past four years, I can attest to the near-insanity of progressive politics in this state, yet California’s very progressive governor, Gavin Newsom, is considered a front-runner for the Democratic Party’s nomination for president in 2028.

Given how the Trump administration has helped to tank the economy through its tariffs, inflation, and outright regime uncertainty, there is a real possibility that Newsom can make California governance a reality for the entire country.

In other words, politically speaking, there seems to be no ceiling for the damage that progressive politicians in California can do with no objections from their constituents.

Thanks to the state’s governance, the cost of living here is well above the national average, even though there is no reason as to why that should be the case.

The highly-abstract worldview from which progressives draw their governing ethos continues to claim victims, but Democrats — who make up the overwhelming voter bloc in this state—do not care about the damage being done, since they can always blame Republicans and capitalism just like Big Brother blamed Goldstein.

The latest legislative caper is a wealth tax on the state’s 200 or so billionaires that is so onerous that, should voters approve it in November of this year, will drive businesses and their owners out of the state altogether.

However, California’s mostly-Democratic voters have signaled they are more than willing to approve the tax even though they know it will cause economic harm. 

While I wrote the following piece more than four years ago, it still holds true and there is no chance that the political and legislative balances in this state will change — except for moving further to the left. 

*  *  *

My colleague from the philosophy department at my former employer, Frostburg State University, was becoming increasingly angry. He was trying to be polite, but it was clear that he was raging inside. After a few minutes, he smiled a very strained smile and excused himself.

Our conversation was about California, or to be more specific, California governance. As readers can imagine, he was bullish on how the Democratic Party governs the state, California being perhaps the most one-party state in the USA. Every statewide election has gone to a Democrat in the last decade, and Democrats have a supermajority in the state legislature, which means that there is no meaningful Republican opposition and whatever the Democrats want, they get.

Not surprisingly, California governance is squarely progressive. The unions representing government employees effectively run the legislature, and as a result, pay, benefits, and pensions for those workers increasingly are straining the state budgets. (Steven Greenhut, a libertarian journalist based in California, has documented the unsustainable growth of government in that state for nearly two decades.) Yet, the state continues to march politically and economically in the progressive direction as though the laws of economics didn’t matter.

For the most part I have observed progressive California from far away, but my life took a different turn a few years ago, and the state is becoming my new home. I married a retired nurse from Sacramento in 2018, and because of health issues with her adult daughter, she has to remain in that city, something not in our original plans. Because my school’s campus either was closed or severely restricted during the covid-19 lockdowns, I spent most of the 2020 working from my wife’s home.

Living and working in California has offered me the opportunity to observe California progressivism up close, and it has been an interesting experience. Yes, the state where I officially reside, Maryland, is famously one-party and progressive, but the progressivism of California makes Maryland’s legislature look almost red state by comparison and surreal in some ways.

For example, the California legislature in its progressive wisdom effectively decriminalized theft as long as thieves take less than $950 worth of merchandise, officially reducing such theft to a misdemeanor but in effect making it legal, since progressive California prosecutors don’t like to be bothered by petty criminals. In practice, that means consumer goods are much harder to find in California stores than one might experience elsewhere. For me, the difference was quite revealing, as I recently returned to Maryland after spending close to nine months in Sacramento.

When I go to the Walmart near my wife’s home, I find many things openly are on display in Maryland are behind locked cases in California. Furthermore, California’s draconian labor laws mean Walmart has fewer employees, so if I wish to purchase something I easily could buy in Maryland, I have to wait for a long time and often I just walk away because no one is available to open the glass case. Yet, even with these provisions, shoplifting losses for California retailers are enormous, and the state’s pro-theft laws have encouraged organized grab-and-run rings.

My progressive colleagues, like my philosophy professor friend, see no problem with such developments. To them, the real thieves are the capitalists, the retailers like Walmart which refuse to pay “living wages” to their employees, and, according to Senator Bernie Sanders, the capitalists have “been looting” Americans for years. Thus, the wave of theft in that state is a positive development, according to progressives.

I can go on, but it isn’t difficult to expose the vast array of sins (economic and otherwise) committed by the California political classes, and I liken this kind of punditry to swinging a bat in a room full of pinatas—one simply cannot miss. Steven Greenhut has been exposing California’s follies for years. However, perhaps the best recent commentary I have read on the progressive mentality that governs the state comes from blogger Mike Solana, who deftly skewers progressive politicians from the Golden State who now accuse the tech industry of having “extracted wealth” from California before leaving for the greener pastures of lower-tax havens such as Texas and Florida.

Solana’s rip is worth the read if for no other reason than that he exposes the cluelessness of progressive politicians and pundits, and one can be assured that progressive politicians will fit Tallyrand’s description of the Bourbons: “They had learned nothing, and had forgotten nothing.” Yet, Solana also is puzzled as to why Bay Area politicians who fail spectacularly also win landslide elections:

Nothing in San Francisco can be set on a path to slow correction until at least six of the eleven district board seats along with the mayorship belong to sane, goal-oriented leaders cognizant of our city’s many problems, and single-mindedly focused on solving them. These politicians will likewise need to be extremely well-funded. This is to say we need a political class, funded by a political machine, neither of which currently exist. Even were both the class and the funding apparatus to rapidly emerge, and even were the new political coalition to win an undefeated string of miracle elections, it would take four years to seize meaningful political power from the resident psychotics in charge, who, as per the last election, appear to be very popular among close to ninety percent of voters (a curiosity for another wire). This is to say nothing of the broader Bay Area political toxicity, nor the state political dynamics, which are poised to exacerbate every one of our problems. It is a multi-front political catastrophe.

During the covid-19 pandemic, which California politicians—and especially Governor Gavin Newsom—mismanaged spectacularly, California voters overwhelmingly chose the progressive status quo. While writers go on and on about the mind-boggling politics of California, the voters continue to send the left-wing progressives into office at all levels of government. While some might believe that “education” is the key to the so-called self-governance of democracy, voters in California clearly are choosing their candidates for reasons other than demonstrating wisdom in office. Indeed, why voters insist on putting the worst on top is perhaps the most intriguing question one asks about California politics.

Typical wisdom says that voters “vote for their pocketbooks,” but the progressives whom the lower-income voters overwhelmingly choose to elect are responsible for California having the nation’s highest poverty rates. Furthermore, for all the antiwealth rhetoric that California’s progressive candidates spew out, the very poor and the very rich voters in California tend to choose and support the same candidates, and the Democratic Party is the party of choice of the state’s large number of billionaires.

There is little or nothing that the current progressive state government has done that promotes the promotion of real wealth in California, yet even as state authorities actively destroy economic opportunities, the voters respond by demanding more of the same. That would seem to be a mystery, but maybe not. Let me explain.

In the past few years, wildfires have ravaged huge tracts of mostly public land in California (and in much of the West, although California has been hit the hardest). There are many reasons for the fires, the most obvious being that most of California receives little rainfall and many fires occur in mountainous terrain, where it is difficult to fight them. But there is much more, and most of it has to do with progressive policies. Even the George Soros–funded Pro Publica recognizes the role of fire suppression-based land management practices in making the fires worse:

The pattern is a form of insanity: We keep doing overzealous fire suppression across California landscapes where the fire poses little risk to people and structures. As a result, wildland fuels keep building up. At the same time, the climate grows hotter and drier. Then, boom: the inevitable. The wind blows down a power line, or lightning strikes dry grass, and an inferno ensues. This week we’ve seen both the second- and third-largest fires in California history. “The fire community, the progressives, are almost in a state of panic,” (Tim) Ingalsbee said. There’s only one solution, the one we know yet still avoid. “We need to get good fire on the ground and whittle down some of that fuel load.”

Yet, the progressivist religion that defines the Democratic Party in California cannot acknowledge that the leave-nature-alone policies could have anything to do with the scope and intensity of the wildfires. Instead, the powers that be have decided that climate change—and only climate change—is responsible, and the way to deal with the problem is to impose draconian rules that make life difficult for most people living there, from outlawing new natural gas residential hookups to its infamous “road diets” imposed to discourage people from driving cars. Despite the fact that California politicians, such as Gov. Gavin Newsom, claim that these policies will significantly reduce global temperatures and make wildfires less intense, the reality is quite different, as California accounts for less than 1 percent of so-called greenhouse gases in the world.

Perhaps the most symbolic action by California’s government of progressive arrogance is the continued development of the “bullet train,” an ambitious (to be charitable) project to build high-speed rail from San Francisco to Los Angeles. Under urging from then governor Jerry Brown, voters in the Golden State in 2008 agreed to permit a bond issue to begin funding what Brown claimed would require a maximum of $33 billion. California’s mountainous terrain forced design and route changes, turning the LA-SF “dream” into a train that would run between Bakersfield and Merced, two cities in the flat Central Valley. To make matters even worse, passenger rail service via Amtrak already exists in the valley, and even if everything were to go to plan (a heroic assumption, one might add), the bullet train would save only forty-five minutes in travel from the existing route.

As the proposed length of the bullet train becomes shorter, the costs continue to skyrocket. The original $33 billion estimate now has ballooned to more than $100 billion—if the project even is completed. Yet the project continues to live. Last year I spoke to a former coworker of my wife who enthusiastically supports the rail project. When I asked her about the cost and the fact that there really is no demand for this service, her response was instructive: “But we NEED trains!” Never mind that this is a boondoggle that dwarfs almost anything else we know as government waste; never mind that California taxpayers are being forced to fund a massive wealth transfer to politically connected contractors in which there are all costs and no benefits. The state “needs” trains.

My faculty colleague also became angry at my panning the California bullet train, and I have wondered why progressives are so defensive about this project. There is no doubt that it is a huge waste of money and that the passenger-mile costs are well above anything else that exists in public transportation, but that doesn’t seem to matter. One would think that “good government” progressives would see the disconnect here.

One possible explanation comes from Murray Rothbard, who recognized that progressives ultimately are at “war with nature.” While Rothbard was writing about egalitarianism, nonetheless one can argue that progressive policies are aimed at producing very different outcomes than what would happen if people were free to make their own choices, and especially choices with their own money.

Because of the rise of the tech industry, California has seen an increase in wealth that probably is unprecedented in the history of this country—and maybe the world. Not surprisingly, the state’s tax take has massively increased in the past two decades, with the percentage of income tax revenues rising dramatically as tech entrepreneurship has created a new billionaire class. While one can think of these new billionaires as a new class of wealthy, in many ways their outlooks (at least after they become wealthy) often reflect the outlooks of the wave of entrepreneurs such as Andrew Carnegie who developed new technologies, put them to economic use, created vast amounts of wealth, and then created the foundations that ultimately would be governed by a wealth-destroying philosophy of progressivism.

In part, the wealth created permits foundation-financed “visionaries” to demand that resources be directed in a different way than would be done in a market economy, with “serve the people” and “make a difference” as mantras. We see that time and again in California, where tax-engorged “visionary” progressive politicians seize wealth created by private enterprise in order to pursue their own causes such as environmentalism.

Of course, as we already have pointed out, progressive policies tend to make the original problems worse. Not only have progressives made mass wildfires more likely, but they also have been behind the rise in homelessness in California. In the late 1970s, the San Francisco city government instituted rent controls. Not surprisingly, housing shortages followed, and the real price of housing skyrocketed. As shortages became worse, progressive politicians doubled down on the controls. Today, more than five thousand people live on the streets in San Francisco, and the government—bound by its own progressive ideals—is helpless to do anything but hand out money and defend its policies. And this in the city with the most billionaires per capita in the world.

There are three reasons why California governance will not change even as it heads toward a fiscal cliff.

First, and most important, progressive ideology is intractable and does not yield to the laws of economics. Progressive politicians are feted in the mainstream media and in California’s left-wing education institutions, and voters don’t seem to want any alternatives. (After all, California “needs” trains.) Politicians who raise questions as to this model of governance can expect to be demonized in the media and will face violent protests if they show up in public venues—and especially on college campuses.

The second reason is that California voters are drawn to progressive Democrats no matter what disasters these politicians might inflict. The highly educated voters do not support progressive Democrats just on economic issues, but also on the highly contentious social issues, and with the 2020 “revolt of the rich” dominating Democratic Party politics at the present, it is doubtful that this current wave of progressive-favoring voters will change direction.

Democrats also have the immigrant vote in their back pockets, and California has seen a wave of immigrants help turn it into a one-party state. For now, the numbers are just overwhelming, and we can expect California to move even further to the left as its housing and poverty problems become worse and Democrats successfully convince voters that free markets are cause.

The third reason things won’t change in California is that progressive government creates its own sets of monopoly rents that are distributed to politically connected interest groups. In the case of the Golden State, state-employee and municipal labor unions are by far the most powerful political entity, and they control vast blocs of voters. Their power was recently demonstrated by their support of the covid-19 lockdowns in the state—during which public employees continued to draw full pay even as the lockdown policies ravaged the state’s tax base.

Should one doubt the power of California’s government-employee unions, witness the “success” of what was called AB 5, the law that almost killed the “gig” industries in the state, putting thousands of freelance writers and musicians out of work. Written by the AFL-CIO (American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations) as a means of ending the Uber and Lyft rideshare services (and protect unionized taxi and public transportation workers), the fallout was so bad that even the legislature had to back off some of the restrictions. Voters did the rest last November when they beat back most of the most onerous provisions of the law. (One doubts that the musicians and writers that lost their jobs changed their progressive voting patterns in the most recent election. Such is the staying power of progressive ideology.)

If one believes that perhaps the wave of progressive voters will become “converted” to a “free minds and free markets” approach (the “left libertarian” position), the experience of New York City should be instructive. In 1975, the economy was in recession, businesses were fleeing the city’s onerous tax rates and antibusiness climate, and city officials were fraudulently selling capital bonds to pay for previously issued capital bonds. (William E. Simon, the US secretary of the Treasury in 1975, laid out the entire scenario in his blockbuster A Time for Truth.)

New York’s problem was obvious—except in the minds of progressives. Where most of us would understand that having unions running away with the budgets while suppressing productive private enterprises is a losing proposition, progressives see a nefarious capitalist plot. That New York City had a relatively brief renaissance in large part because of the deregulation of banking and finance (which was begun by President Jimmy Carter) plays no role in progressive thinking at all.

Unlike New York City, California does not have an economic ace in its pocket. Even though much of the tech industry has prospered during the state’s draconian pandemic shutdowns, the state government (not to mention cities and counties) is facing the worst financial crisis perhaps in its history. Not surprisingly, the progressive response is to increase incendiary rhetoric toward wealth creators and demand even higher taxes and more business regulations.

Progressivism is a utopian philosophy of governance that will never find nor create its utopia. If California voters and politicians do not understand the current crisis and how it came about, they probably never will understand. Instead, we will see the continuous march to perdition as California politicians refuse to acknowledge that they are killing the geese laying the golden eggs.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 20:15

Trump Lifts Biden-Era Restrictions On Commercial Fishing In Atlantic Marine Monument

Zero Hedge -

Trump Lifts Biden-Era Restrictions On Commercial Fishing In Atlantic Marine Monument

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump revoked a prohibition on commercial fishing in the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument on Friday, restoring rules that allow regulated harvesting in the protected Atlantic waters while citing existing federal laws as adequate safeguards for the area’s ecosystems.

A commercial scallop fishing boat enters the Manasquan Inlet in Point Pleasant, N.J., on May 4, 2012. Wayne Parry/AP Photo

The move reverses a 2021 decision by President Joe Biden that reinstated fishing restrictions in the roughly 4,913-square-mile monument, located where the continental shelf meets the Atlantic Ocean off New England. The monument was created by President Barack Obama’s Proclamation 9496 in 2016.

In Trump’s proclamation, he said that well-regulated commercial fishing is in the public interest.

The president’s proclamation argues that laws such as the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act ensure sustainable fishing practices and protect marine species, making a total ban unnecessary.

“Following further consideration of the nature of the objects identified in Proclamation 9496 and the protection of those objects already provided by Federal law, I find that appropriately managed commercial fishing would not put the objects of historic and scientific interest that the monument protects at risk,” the new proclamation states.

Trump’s action comes after his 2020 modification of the monument, which removed fishing restrictions imposed by Obama’s 2016 proclamation under the Antiquities Act. Obama designated the area as a monument to preserve deep-sea canyons, seamounts, and associated marine life, including highly migratory fish species and rare corals.

In his proclamation, Trump noted that many fish in the monument are not unique to the area and are managed by regional fishery councils using scientific data. Other statutes, such as the Endangered Species Act, Marine Mammal Protection Act, and Clean Water Act, provide additional protections for wildlife, habitats, and water quality.

Trump’s latest action revokes Biden’s Proclamation 10287 in 2021, which restored protections for the monument, and reinstates the terms of Proclamation 10049, issued in 2020, which removed restrictions.

The monument’s boundaries remain the same, but management will align with Trump’s 2020 proclamation, allowing commercial activities under existing regulations.

Trump’s proclamation notes the Antiquities Act requires monuments’ boundaries to be the “smallest area compatible with the proper care and management of the objects to be protected.”

Environmental groups have long supported the monument’s protections, arguing they shield vulnerable species from industrial impacts. A 2019 federal appeals court ruling upheld Obama’s designation against challenges from fishing interests, affirming the ban on commercial fishing and resource extraction to protect whales, turtles, fish, and deep-sea corals.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 18:40

America's Record Health Spending Explained In 5 Charts

Zero Hedge -

America's Record Health Spending Explained In 5 Charts

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

U.S. health care spending reached $5.3 trillion in 2024, according to recently released data from the Department of Health and Human Services.

That includes all health spending through federal and state health programs like Medicare and Medicaid, money paid by individuals to health insurers and providers, spending by employers, and payments made by insurance companies.

Here’s a look at the overall picture of America’s health spending and what that means for consumers and taxpayers.

The United States spends more on health care than any nation in the world.

That’s true whether as a gross amount, a per-capita average of $15,474, or a share of the national economy, 18 percent.

And the amount keeps growing. Per capita health care spending has grown every year since 2000, rising at 77 percent higher than inflation.

Health care is the largest industry in the United States by total spending and employment.

Health care, grouped with social services by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employed more people than any other industry and was one of the fastest growing U.S. industries.

About $18 of every $100 spent in the United States went to pay for health care in 2024. That’s more than was spent on housing ($12), groceries ($5), national defense ($4), or cars ($3).

Health care spending rose 7.2 percent in 2024, but health care prices accounted for less than half of the increase.

Those prices rose 2.5 percent, which was below the overall inflation rate of 2.9 percent that year.

Most of the increase was due to increased cost or use of other goods and services, the increased demand for medical services, and changes in the population.

The overall demand for medical services increased and was the most significant reason for increased spending, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

Americans spent $768 billion on non-medical expenses in 2024, about 15 percent of health care spending.

Most health care funding is provided by individuals through out-of-pocket payments, health insurance premiums, taxes used to fund government health care programs, or money paid by employers to health insurers in lieu of employee wages.

Most of the money flows through other hands, which include the federal government, state governments, and employers.

President Donald Trump and some Republicans in Congress have proposed placing more discretion for health care spending in the hands of consumers, for example by providing funded health savings accounts to individuals rather than paying subsidies directly to insurance companies.

Democrats, whose legislative and policy proposals generally favor controlling costs through increased regulation and subsidies, have so far opposed that idea.

Health care spending accounted for more than a quarter (27 percent) of all federal spending in 2024 and was the largest spending category.

The cost of health care is the greatest financial worry for Americans, according to recent polling from health policy research group KFF.

Two-thirds of Americans (66 percent) said they worried about being able to afford insurance premiums and medical bills. Health expenses were a greater concern than paying for utilities, food, housing, and gas.

More than half (55 percent), said their health care costs had increased in the past year.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 17:30

ICE Urges Newsom Not To Release 33,179 Criminal Illegal Immigrants Into Communities

Zero Hedge -

ICE Urges Newsom Not To Release 33,179 Criminal Illegal Immigrants Into Communities

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have requested the state of California and Gov. Gavin Newsom not to release over 33,000 criminal illegal immigrants with ICE detainers back into the streets, ICE said in a Feb. 6 statement.

ICE detainers are requests to state, local, or federal law enforcement to notify ICE before releasing a removable immigrant. A detainer can also request that an immigrant be held for 48 more hours beyond their scheduled release date to allow DHS time to take custody. The request is sent to prisons and other confinement facilities.

California’s failure to honor ICE detainers has resulted in the release of 4,561 criminal illegal immigrants since Jan. 20, ICE said in its statement.

“There are currently 33,179 aliens in the custody of a California jurisdiction with active detainers. The crimes of these aliens include 399 homicides, 3,313 assaults, 3,171 burglaries, 1,011 robberies, 8,380 dangerous drugs offenses, 1,984 weapons offenses, and 1,293 sexual predatory offenses.”

Some of the illegal immigrants already released from California jails into communities include a Mexican national arrested for lewd or lascivious acts with a child under 14 years of age, a Chinese national arrested for sexual battery, a Mexican national who has been arrested for a sex offender violation, and a Guatemalan convicted of first-degree murder.

DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin accused Newsom and other “sanctuary politicians” in the state of putting American lives at risk by releasing criminals into neighborhoods.

“Criminal illegal aliens should not be released from jails back onto our streets to terrorize more innocent Americans. If we work together, we can make America safe again. 7 of the 10 safest cities in the U.S. cooperate with ICE law enforcement,” McLaughlin said.

Newsom has defended California’s sanctuary policies. California’s Senate Bill 54 prohibits state and local law enforcement from using their money or personnel to investigate, detain, or arrest people for immigration enforcement purposes, the governor told conservative commentator Ben Shapiro in a Jan. 16 podcast.

However, California cooperates with federal immigration enforcement under certain circumstances, Newsom said.

“We have over 10,000 that I’ve cooperated with since I’ve been governor of California,” he said. “California has cooperated with more ICE transfers probably than any other state in the country. And I vetoed multiple pieces of legislation that have come from my legislature to stop the ability for the state of California to do that.”

ICE Administrative Warrants

ICE acting Director Todd Lyons sent a letter to California Attorney General Rob Bonta on Feb. 4 regarding the arrest of immigrants in their homes in the state. The letter focused on administrative warrants used by ICE to arrest aliens.

Administrative warrants, also known as ICE warrants, allow immigration officers to arrest and detain a foreign national. Unlike judicial warrants issued in criminal cases, administrative warrants do not require a neutral magistrate. Instead, an officer must establish probable cause to believe the illegal immigrant is removable from the United States.

A 2024 ruling from a California district court held that entering the land surrounding a home to arrest the occupant violated the Fourth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and the Administrative Procedure Act.

In the letter, Lyons highlighted a 2007 judgment from the Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit that supported the use of administrative warrants to arrest “aliens with final orders of removal in their place of residence.”

“An alien subject to a final order of removal has a diminished reasonable expectation of privacy when federal officers arrive with a valid administrative warrant and reasonable cause to believe he or she is in a residence,” the ICE acting director wrote.

Lyons highlighted that an alien with a final order for removal has generally undergone proceedings in which an immigration judge has determined that the individual is removable from the United States. This neutral immigration judge also ensures the foreign national receives all necessary protections under the U.S. Constitution.

As such, “ICE officers may enter an alien’s residence with a final order of removal and an administrative warrant. No community serious about keeping its residents safe will tolerate a clear aberration of the law,” Lyons wrote.

“ICE and the American people once again demand California honor ICE detainers to take the worst of the worst off the streets and make America safe again.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Gov. Gavin Newsom and California Attorney General Rob Bonta for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 16:20

Gambling Stocks Slide Ahead Of Super Bowl As Prediction Markets Shine

Zero Hedge -

Gambling Stocks Slide Ahead Of Super Bowl As Prediction Markets Shine

The rise of prediction markets ahead of Super Bowl weekend has become a major overhang for legacy sportsbooks, prompting investors to de-risk their equity positions and sending shares of Flutter Entertainment (owner of FanDuel) and rival DraftKings sharply lower year to date.

Today's matchup between Seattle and New England at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara is expected to drive record trading volumes on prediction markets, according to Jordan Bender, a senior equity analyst at Citizens.

"A big piece of why we think Super Bowl handle will be down is that prediction markets are taking a bite out of that," Bender said.

Since the 2024 presidential election cycle, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted growing trading volumes that would have traditionally flowed to sportsbook apps.

Professional sports gambler Rufus Peabody told Bloomberg, "It really feels like everything's prediction markets, prediction markets, prediction markets."

Peabody, who began trading on Kalshi in September, noted, "Maybe not for the average recreational bettor, but certainly in the sharp community."

Kalshi and other federally regulated exchanges have opened prediction markets to millions of Americans living in states where sportsbooks remain illegal, sparking a fierce legal battle with federal and local gaming regulators.

These event contracts are not just for sports but also offer bets across markets, elections, and geopolitics. The fastest growth, however, is in sports betting.

According to the Dune data dashboard, Kalshi saw nearly $10 billion in contracts traded in January, with the vast majority tied to sports betting (about $8.5 billion).

Traders on Kalshi and rival Polymarket have swapped $800 million worth of contracts tied to the Super Bowl so far, the American Gaming Association wrote in a report. This compares with $1.8 billion Americans are expected to bet on the game through traditional regulated sportsbooks.

In November, Polymarket received regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to return to the US markets.

"Polymarket is back. Polymarket's U.S. app is now being rolled out to those on the waitlist," Polymarket states on its platform.

Despite the rise of prediction markets, several Wall Street analysts still expect the existing US sportsbook companies to take in a record Super Bowl haul this weekend.

H2 Gambling Capital senior analyst Ed Birkin forecasted that total wagers - before prediction markets are taken into account - will soar 9% this year to $1.78 billion. He pointed out that prediction markets will attract $630 million in bets for the Super Bowl and account for 80% year-over-year growth in wagering activity for the event.

Polymarket's latest Super Bowl bets:

More bets 

Let the games begin. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 15:45

Molotov Cocktails, Volatility, Stability, And Faux Liquidity

Zero Hedge -

Molotov Cocktails, Volatility, Stability, And Faux Liquidity

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Markets have experienced high levels of volatility over the past few weeks. From silver, to software stocks, to cryptocurrency, we have seen violent price swings on almost a daily basis. We have political risks, geopolitical risks, as well as the implications of a rapidly evolving technological shift. We touched on Non-Standard Deviations last week, and are going to expand on that today.

We will attempt to examine the bigger picture of the potential volatility from transitioning from one world economic order to another. We also highlight how liquidity, or in our view, the lack of a true depth of liquidity, plays in this world.

Molotov Cocktails

Gasoline, in a tank (or a bottle) at room temperature, is stable. Apply a catalyst (a rag lit on fire) and we enter the “volatility” phase. An explosive, hot, and unpredictable phase.

Once the heat has dissipated, we are left with CO2 and H2O (carbon dioxide and water). Both are very stable. And in our example, there is some broken glass from the bottle, which isn’t as stable as when it was in the form of a bottle, but it isn’t doing much of anything.

There are all sorts of examples of these transitions from one form of stability to another form of stability, with some sort of volatility in between. A rock near the edge of a cliff that is pushed over. Nuclear fission may also fit. I think we could even apply the word entropy here, but we went with the Molotov Cocktail since it implies an intentional act of destruction.

The Global Economic System

We had settled into a multilateral, trade-based global economic system. The complexity of supply chains grew over time. Dependent on trade, but optimized by companies to serve their purpose.

Companies grew and became increasingly global in their scope. For many, the concept of national boundaries was vastly diminished.

While global tensions existed, the big, richer nations were all free to trade. Many resource rich nations prospered (or at least their leaders did).

Then China, quietly, and barely noticed by anyone, tossed out the first Molotov Cocktail. That may sound provocative (and may even be provocative), but it is a good place to start this discussion. It fits with our work under Trump 1.0, when so many were lamenting that the U.S. was “starting” a trade war, and we argued that we had been in a trade war for years, if not decades, and were “finally” firing a shot.

In the past decades, China has quietly, though overtly:

  • Taken Intellectual Property. There is no question that the IP theft occurred. We can argue about the size of the theft, but it did occur. This was as much on “us” for letting it go on and continuing to believe that we could trade “normally” with China.
  • Cornered the Market on Processed and Refined Rare Earths and Critical Minerals. This is largely on “us.” We didn’t want the “dirty” aspects of this industry in our own backyards. NIMBY (Not In My Backyard) played a key role in allowing this development to occur. It was almost as though the “lack of greenness” was “hidden” if “we” let China do all the “dirty” work. Clearly the latest round of trade negotiations (and viable threats from China) have highlighted this.
  • Subsidies and unfair trade practices. Long after the Chinese economy developed into a high- powered, industrialized, and sophisticated manufacturing hub, the world gave it many trade advantages (on “us”). The flipside was that China was very good at subsidizing businesses by keeping prices of certain things at a level where China could then squeeze competitors out of the market. That was largely on “China” but “we” were more enamored with the cheaper prices than we were concerned about the repercussions of being de-industrialized. Heck, less industry (and carbon) was a “feature” not a “bug.”

Without a doubt, this administration has tossed a Molotov Cocktail, or two (or even a hundred), and this is reshaping the global economic system.

The administration’s policies have set off a chain reaction that is re-shaping the global economy, but much of it is in response to (or in an effort to change the path of) China, which had been steering for the world.

A ProSec System Can Be Stable As Well

As you know (and might be sick of hearing about), we think a ProSec Economy is the direction we are headed. That production for security and resiliency will dominate policy for governments (across the globe), corporations, and asset managers. We could also describe this as a “Me First” or “Me Mostly First” world order, but I think that has more negative connotations than it really should have.

In this ProSec world countries will:

  • Produce a significant “amount” of “things” they NEED domestically. There will be levels of “NEED” that apply. Just like humans need air more than water, and in turn, need water more than food to live, countries will identify their true “NEEDS” and develop businesses around those “things.” “Things” like electricity and energy will be high on that list. For advanced countries, semiconductors will fit into that. The need for processed, refined, and smelted materials will be addressed. Ultimately, healthcare and pharmaceuticals will be prioritized. See ProSec 2026 for a more detailed list of “things.”
  • The “amount” that a country can produce domestically will vary by the “thing” that it is producing. Some things, like energy and electricity, can be done fully domestically by almost any advanced country (if they adopt an array of products). Though even there, they may be dependent on others for some level of supply. There will be things that are not economically feasible to produce at scale in some countries. Countries will need to rely on close relationships (by proximity and values) to ensure a robust and resilient economy. One that cannot easily be threatened by another country’s economic policies.
  • There is still plenty of scope for “regular” trade. Not every good or product will be important enough for security and resilience to deserve focused efforts from governments (which will play an outsized role at the start of this changing mindset). And even on some “things” there is opportunity to trade – just not at a level where the trading partner can hold you hostage.

It is easy (at least for me) to see a STABLE global economy, based on the principles of ProSec.

It is the TRANSITION from the existing global economic state of play to this increasingly self-sufficient world that will be difficult and volatile.

Faux Liquidity Adding to The Volatility

When you look at your screens and see bids and offers lined up, the market looks quite liquid. There is some truth to it. Never has the market been more liquid for small trades. I would completely agree with that statement.

Having said that, I think we have an “illusion of liquidity” or what I prefer to call Faux Liquidity. When I “imagine” the state of liquidity, here is what I see:

  • Hundreds if not thousands of algos (because no human can do this) trying to compete to “scalp” the next tick or fraction of a penny on any trade. Generating bids and offers, trying to capture some portion of the flow profitably.
  • Some portion of these algos (the more sophisticated and presumably more profitable ones) rely heavily on correlation. Commodities might be the easiest example of this to see. Different exchanges list different contracts. There are futures, but there are also ETFs. In some cases, you have those who can participate in the “physical” space. They can try to capture what they see as “arbitrages” between markets. As you move to equities and fixed income, the ETFs (and the create/redeem process for those) can play an even larger role. There are all sorts of opportunities to manage risk (and market making) profitably.
  • When functioning well, this creates orderly markets that seem incredibly liquid.

The downside is:

  • Correlations changing rapidly. Maybe there are margin calls in one specific product on some exchange creating issues. Maybe two things that are generally correlated break apart due to a political announcement, or even a geopolitical event.
  • Bid/offer spreads widen as algos drop out. The beauty of thousands of algos chasing a trade means the “inside market” (best bid and offer) can be tight. If algos start losing money (using a function of increased volatility and shifting correlations), they drop out, or don’t chase as aggressively. The bid/offer spread can widen. The size that can be executed on the bid or offer decreases.

That is when we get “air pockets” or what I call “faux liquidity.”

Large trades can no longer be absorbed “easily” by the system, causing prices to lurch to and fro. One minute we are at 100. The next minute at 105. Now the bid/offers start filling back in around 105, but how the heck did we jump from 100 to 105 in seconds? Nobody knows (well, we do, it is the symptom of faux liquidity). Just like the school of fish avoids the shark (images by Grok), only to congregate moments later in another location, the algos adjust to the new level and get back to their job of making small increments while avoiding being eaten by the big move.

I didn’t even mention:

  • Passive investing. In a world dominated by the market cap of a handful of stocks, passive looks a lot more like momentum, where inflows (and believe it or not outflows) reinforce momentum as the flow is concentrated in so few names.
  • Leveraged ETFs. I have no idea why the SEC approves 2x or 3x leverage on single stocks. I barely understand it on indices, where the path dependent nature takes a toll on the investor, but I cannot begin to understand the need to have it on single stocks. These amplify movements.
  • 0DTE. I haven’t forgotten about zero day to expiration options. Daily and weekly options dominate options trading. VIX is increasingly like the DOW – fun for old timers to talk about wistfully, but far less relevant than it once was to market discussions. As what started the day as a far out of the money option becomes an at the money option, the delta hedging needs the market to continue to move in that direction.

We live in a world where the trading instruments and the market making functionality, on any given day, have the risk of amplifying moves, creating bigger gains or losses, than might otherwise have occurred

Bottom Line

We are transitioning:

  • From a more global system of trading, to one where countries are more conscious of the risks of being overly dependent on others for “things” that are necessary.
  • From a “deterministic” world of compute, to one where probability-based AI is reshaping industries and investment at a record pace.
  • A shift from a U.S. dollar denominated world, where dollars were needed to trade, to provide reserves, and could play a prominent role in sanctions and other mechanisms to influence behavior, to a world where the dollar may not be as important.
    • Some would argue that maybe we are even shifting from a “fiat” currency world, to a “digital” or cryptocurrency world. I do think we will see more digitization, but it will be digitization of existing currencies and instruments, more than the dominance of Bitcoin (as an example). I won’t discount the idea out of hand, but it is far from my base case.

The mix of Molotov Cocktails and Faux Liquidity make for a challenging environment.

On the other hand, I think the market is underpricing the number of cuts and timing (I think at least 3 by September with a 50/50 chance that Powell cuts once before his term as Chair is over). I am worried about jobs and the “working” poor. See The Fed, Affordability, and Electricity for more on this view.

Stay warm and enjoy the Super Bowl.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 15:10

Trump Admin Refuses To Comply With Immigration Court Order

Zero Hedge -

Trump Admin Refuses To Comply With Immigration Court Order

The Trump administration has drawn a line in the sand.

It will not comply with a federal court order demanding due process for 252 Venezuelan migrants deported to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador last March under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act.

The Justice Department made that position clear in a new filing, setting up a collision course with U.S. District Judge James Boasberg and a near-certain return to the Supreme Court.

The case has emerged as a defining test of judicial power in Trump’s second term, pitting the executive branch’s immigration authority against the federal courts and their ability to enforce constitutional protections for illegal immigrant gang members.

The Venezuelans were flown to El Salvador in March 2025 despite an emergency order from Boasberg instructing the administration to halt the deportations and turn the planes around mid-flight. That decision triggered an eleven-month legal battle that reached the Supreme Court in April after months of wrangling in the lower courts. 

The justices ruled in the government’s favor on its authority to invoke the Alien Enemies Act, but Boasberg, an Obama appointee, doubled down in December, issuing another order directing the government to “facilitate” due process for the migrants who had already been deported. He presented two options: bring the men back to the United States for in-person hearings or facilitate hearings abroad that meet constitutional standards.

The Justice Department rejected both options in its Monday filing.

“In its filing Monday, the Justice Department argued again that the administration is powerless to return the Venezuelan migrants who were summarily deported last year,” reports Fox News. “The department rejected the notion that the U.S. could ‘facilitate’ due process proceedings for the migrants in question as previously ordered by the court, describing the options to do so as either legally impossible or practically unworkable due to national security concerns and the fragile political situation in Venezuela after the U.S. capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro during a raid in Caracas last month.”

Justice Department lawyers argued that returning the migrants is legally impossible and presents national security risks. They cited strained diplomatic relations with Venezuela and the alleged gang ties of the deportees. The filing also dismissed the idea of holding hearings at the U.S. embassy in Caracas, citing the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro and the resulting political instability. The department further contended that the United States lacks jurisdiction to conduct habeas proceedings abroad and that attempting to do so would interfere with delicate diplomatic efforts.

The filing made clear that the administration believes it owes the migrants no additional due process. If Boasberg orders otherwise, Justice Department lawyers said they would immediately appeal and seek a stay from higher courts.

The department maintained that the president’s use of the Alien Enemies Act represents a national security decision outside the proper reach of judicial review.

“If, over defendants’ vehement legal and practical objections, the Court issues an injunction, defendants intend to immediately appeal, and will seek a stay pending appeal from this Court (and, if necessary, from the D.C. Circuit),” the Justice Department said in a statement.

Boasberg has attempted to dictate what the executive branch can do on immigration policy, an area where presidential authority is broad and judicial deference is typically the norm. Similar demands for court-mandated due process protocols were absent during the Obama administration, which deported immigrants in record numbers. During those years, the federal government shifted sharply from judicial removals to fast-track, nonjudicial proceedings. By 2012, 75 percent of illegals removed did not see a judge before being deported from the United States, amounting to 313,000 nonjudicial removals in a single fiscal year.

The Trump administration views the current legal fight as an extension of that same presidential authority enjoyed by Barack Obama. It sees Boasberg and other judges issuing immigration orders as rogue actors seeking to seize control of enforcement policy from the executive branch.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 14:35

NIH Allocates $10 Million For Research In East Palestine Three Years After Toxic Train Crash

Zero Hedge -

NIH Allocates $10 Million For Research In East Palestine Three Years After Toxic Train Crash

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Three years have passed since a Norfolk Southern freight train carrying hazardous chemicals derailed in East Palestine, an eastern Ohio village near the Pennsylvania border.

A neighborhood near the train wreck where vinyl chloride from derailed tank cars was vented and burnt in East Palestine, Ohio, on Feb. 6, 2023. Gene J. Puskar/AP Photo

On Feb. 3, the disaster’s third anniversary, The National Institutes of Health (NIH) held a grand opening ceremony for the East Palestine Train Derailment Health Research Program Office.

The office will serve as the home to a five-year, $10 million research initiative to assess and address the long-term health outcomes stemming from the derailment.

NIH’s research hub offers the people of East Palestine a pathway to clear answers about their health they deserve,” said Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

“Everyone affected by this environmental disaster deserves access to independent, gold-standard science that puts their well-being first.”

Life in East Palestine abruptly changed around 9 p.m. on Feb. 3, 2023.

The crew of a Norfolk Southern Railway freight train carrying 151 cars saw smoke and fire, and realized that 38 cars had derailed.

The flammable, toxic chemicals in 11 derailed cars had ignited, with flames spreading to an additional 12 cars.

According to the National Transportation Safety Board, nine cars were carrying hazardous materials in addition to the 11 that derailed.

The hazardous chemicals, including vinyl chloride in some of the rail cars, began to spill onto the ground and into the air.

Vinyl chloride is used to make PVC pipes and other products.

The National Cancer Institute notes that the toxic chemical has been linked to cancers of the brain, lungs, blood, lymphatic system, and liver.

Vinyl chloride creates carbon monoxide and hydrogen chloride when it burns.

When the latter mixes with water, it generates hydrochloric acid, a corrosive substance that can burn the skin and eyes, and is toxic if inhaled.

Burning vinyl chloride also produces a small amount of phosgene gas, which was used as a chemical weapon on World War I battlefields.

As the fire continued, authorities on Feb. 6—fearing shrapnel from a major explosion—decided on a controlled detonation of five cars, which sent a massive cloud of black smoke into the sky.

Visible for miles, it was likened to the mushroom cloud caused by a nuclear weapon.

The government characterized it as a “controlled burn,” but residents said it was anything but controlled.

A dark cloud of chemical-filled smoke could be seen for miles, and debris landed on properties several miles away.

The train cars were ruptured in the detonation, and spilled the rest of their contents into a drainage ditch connecting to Sulphur Run, a stream that flows through the heart of East Palestine.

Before the burn, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine urged residents to evacuate a one-by-two-mile area surrounding East Palestine, which included parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania.

DeWine described the urgent evacuation as a “matter of life and death.”

Fire from a burning train is seen from a farm in East Palestine, Ohio, on Feb. 3, 2023. Melissa Smith via AP

Three days later, DeWine held a press conference announcing that the evacuation order had been lifted and residents could return to their homes.

Norfolk Southern trains resumed their routes through East Palestine, and federal and state officials said testing showed that the air and water were safe.

Fear and uncertainty remain among East Palestine residents.

Many locals complained about a toxic smell in the air, burning eyes, rashes, headaches, and other health issues.

These reports prompted concerns about potential long-term health effects, including “maternal and child health, as well as psychological, immunological, respiratory and cardiovascular health,” according to the NIH.

“This research program is designed to bring rigorous, independent science directly to the community,” NIH Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya said.

“By establishing a local presence, we can better engage residents, support enrollment in studies, and ensure the research reflects the real experiences and concerns of the people affected.”

After the grand opening, a community meeting was held to outline the research program, explain how residents can enroll in studies, and provide people a chance to ask questions and share their experiences directly with researchers.

Jami Wallace was a lifelong East Palestine resident until the derailment.

She no longer lives in the community but has served as an outspoken advocate for people who have experienced health consequences from the disaster.

“I was diagnosed after the derailment with hypothyroidism. I’ve been diagnosed with asthma, I’ve been diagnosed with an adult chronic cough, I have a cyst on my right ovary that I have to have an operation on,” said Wallace, who is co-founder of the Chemically Impacted Communities Coalition.

I get phone calls every day from people who are seeing cancers and thyroid disease, respiratory and neurological issues. You can’t tell me it’s not from those chemicals.

“I’ll fight Norfolk Southern, and I will fight my own government until we get accountability and we get justice.”

The Feb. 3 event included researchers and representatives from NIH’s National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the University of Kentucky, the University of Pittsburgh, and Yale University.

“Since the beginning, we have seen the public experience respiratory issues, we’ve seen and heard about rashes, nose bleeds in children, eczema, reproductive health questions and concerns, so now we have a team of about sixteen scientists on our team that can help answer those questions for the public,” Dr. Erin Haynes of the University of Kentucky said.

“We have learned that the community is experiencing health conditions from the derailment, and we want to be able to give them answers to know if it is a true direct association.

“A lot of things are unanswered, but this large-scale study that we now have funding to do will really help answer those questions.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 14:00

Raskin: Voter ID Law Violates The 19th Amendment In Denying The Vote To Women

Zero Hedge -

Raskin: Voter ID Law Violates The 19th Amendment In Denying The Vote To Women

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

With polling showing over 80 percent of Americans in favor of voter ID laws, it is hard to come up with reasons why you need an ID to board a plane but not vote in a federal election. That was particularly glaring this week when Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) required people to show an ID to attend his campaign events after opposing an ID requirement to vote. So if you want to hear Ossoff speak against voter ID, you will have to show your ID. Now Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) has a rather bizarre argument: the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, if passed, would likely violate the 19th Amendment to the Constitution.

CNN Host Kasie Hunt told Raskin that “Voter ID is supported by the majority of Americans. But there are Democrats on the Hill and you voted against this? Why not support voter ID?”

Raskin then had this curious response:

“… what’s wrong with the Save act? What’s wrong with it is that it might violate the 19th Amendment, which gives women the right to vote, because you’ve got to show that all of your different IDs match.

So if you’re a woman who’s gotten married and you’ve changed your name to your husband’s name, but you’re so now your current name is different from your name at birth.

Now you’ve got to go ahead and document that you need an affidavit explaining why. And why would we go to all of these, troubles in order to keep people from voting when none of the states that are actually running the elections are telling us that there’s any problem.”

In fact, under various voter ID laws, states can create systems to address issues such as different maiden names or name changes following a divorce, including requiring a standard attestation provided by the state.

Nothing in the SAVE Act requires birth certificates be brought to polling places. 

It allows for the use of a signed attestation supplied by the state.

As for identification, various forms are allowed:

The legislation would require documentation that shows an individual was born in the U.S., including either:

  • An ID that complies with the REAL ID Act and indicates the holder is a citizen;

  • A passport;

  • A military ID card and military record of service that shows a person was born in the U.S.;

  • A government-issued photo ID that shows the person’s place of birth was in the U.S.;

  • Other forms of government-issued photo ID, if they’re accompanied by a birth certificate, comparable document or naturalization certificate.

Now, on the 19th Amendment, Raskin’s argument is simply ridiculous. Indeed, if this were credible, why has it not been used successfully against prior state voting ID laws? Rather than making this claim on CNN, it would be interesting for Raskin to try it in court once the SAVE Act passes.

It is unlikely to succeed because the 19th Amendment guarantees the right to vote, but, like all citizens, women can be asked to prove their eligibility to vote. The suggestion that requiring a signature on an attestation form is a barrier to voting is simply incredible.

The Nineteenth Amendment provides:

The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.

Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

Requiring proof of your identity neither denies nor abridges the right to vote. Indeed, for supporters of voter ID laws, it protects the right to vote by ensuring that only eligible voters are counted in elections.

Would requiring the REAL ID also violate constitutional rights like the right to travel or association for those with name changes? Of course not. The government may require basic identification for such transactions while creating reasonable methods of addressing name or address changes.

The claim of a 19th Amendment violation is spurious but par for the course in our current political environment. As with claims that democracy is about to die, these inflammatory claims are designed to distract voters who overwhelmingly support Voter ID. Democratic members are unified in opposing such laws. That is a debate that should be resolved on the merits, not meritless constitutional claims.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 12:50

At Least 112 USAF C-17 Aircraft Headed To Middle East: 'Desert Storm Levels'

Zero Hedge -

At Least 112 USAF C-17 Aircraft Headed To Middle East: 'Desert Storm Levels'

An eye-opening and massive number of C-17 Globemaster military transport and cargo planes have been observed heading to Europe and the Middle East, in what some monitors have forewarned looks like the build-up to major war in Iran.

One regional watcher and pundit commented in response: "112 C-17s are in or on their way to the Middle East. Guys, that’s a lot. Like Desert Storm a lot. Stay tuned."

C-17, via USAF/X

This as on Friday the prominent open source account Armchair Admiral and others used public flight tracking data to tally that the huge armada of US Air Force C-17s and counting are en route - a trend since mid-January.

"A total of 112 U.S. Air Force C-17's have now either arrived or are en route to the Middle East with a further 17-18 in-progress flights, a number of Royal Air Force logistics flights from RAF Marham to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, and movement on U.S. Air Force CORONETs," the source said.

C-17s are massive, and can deliver huge amounts of equipment or large numbers of troops in a single go. The US military lists some of the following key capabilities:

  • Payload capacity of over 170,000 pounds
  • Ability to operate on short, austere runways as small as 3,500 feet
  • Intercontinental range, with in-flight refueling extending reach even further
  • Rapid load/unload design to keep missions moving under pressure

Iran and the US just concluded an initial round of indirect talks mediated by Oman, but despite some hopeful statements issued by either side, it is very clear Iran is not willing to negotiate its ballistic missile program - a sticking point being demanded by Washington. A second round is expected in the coming days, unless military action ensues first.

Iran's foreign minister has newly questioned whether Washington is taking these talks seriously, or if they are merely a pretext for more time to allow for a US force build-up in the region.

FM Abbas Araghchi asserted Tehran is not intimidated but that this raises "doubts about the other party's seriousness and readiness to engage in genuine negotiations." He added: "We are closely monitoring the situation, assessing all the signals, and will decide whether to continue the negotiations."

Prior to these weekend comments, the Iranian top diplomat stated, "If the United States launches an attack against us, we do not have the capability to attack its territory, so we would target American bases in the region. This would draw the entire region into war. We do not attack neighboring countries; we target American bases."

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 12:15

The Investor Show: How NOT to Invest

The Big Picture -

 

 

Fun story: I meet this big guy at FutureProof (Maybe it was Investopedia’s cocktasil party?). We start chatting about his career in the military — he is a 20-year vet — and why he became a financial advisor.

He invites me on his pod, and we had fun chatting on his live stream “The Investor Show”:

“Returning to the mic for a special episode featuring one of the most respected voices in investing: Barry Ritholtz. After reading Barry’s book “How Not to Invest”, it was the best investment book I read in 2025! This live conversation will dive into what’s moving markets, how great investors think about risk, and the behavioral mistakes that can quietly sabotage long-term returns.”

More on Prince here

 

 

 

The post The Investor Show: How NOT to Invest appeared first on The Big Picture.

Nearly 2,000 Truckers Deemed Unfit Are Removed From American Roads

Zero Hedge -

Nearly 2,000 Truckers Deemed Unfit Are Removed From American Roads

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Almost 2,000 truckers deemed to be unqualified to drive on U.S. roads have been removed, with several arrested and many vehicles put out of service, the Department of Transportation (DOT) said in a Feb. 6 statement.

Trucks line up next to the border wall before crossing to the United States at Otay commercial port in Tijuana, Mexico, on Jan. 22, 2025. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

The action came as part of the first wave of Operation SafeDRIVE, a “high-visibility, multi-state enforcement and education effort focused on reducing dangerous driving behaviors, ensuring drivers are properly qualified, and addressing unsafe drivers and vehicles on the nation’s roadways,” the department said.

Inspectors from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration teamed up with law enforcement partners in 26 states and the District of Columbia in the three-day effort, Jan. 13 to 15, carrying out “targeted enforcement actions along major freight corridors and other high-risk locations.”

The operation resulted in 8,215 inspections, with 56 truckers being arrested for driving under the influence and illegally being present in the United States, DOT said. A total of 1,231 vehicles were put out of service.

Out of the 2,000 truckers, 704 were removed from service, including nearly 500 for violating English proficiency standards. The removal of these 500 truckers follows the Trump administration’s implementation of English language proficiency requirements for truck drivers.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in March designating English as the official language of the United States. In April, he signed another executive order that instructed Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy to remove commercial truck drivers failing English proficiency tests.

Proficiency in English should be a “non-negotiable safety requirement for professional drivers,” Trump wrote in the order. “They should be able to read and understand traffic signs, communicate with traffic safety, border patrol, agricultural checkpoints, and cargo weight-limit station officers.”

Derek D. Barrs, administrator of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, said the recent operation was about safety of the trucking sector. When drivers ignore rules or operate without having proper qualifications, they put lives at risk, he said.

Duffy said Operation SafeDRIVE “shows what happens when we work together with our law enforcement partners to pull unqualified drivers and vehicles off American roads.”

We need a whole-of-government approach to ensure the Trump administration’s strong standards of safety are in place to protect American families and reduce road accidents.

Crackdown on Unqualified Truckers

The crackdown on unqualified truck drivers comes amid incidents of illegal immigrants being involved in truck-related accidents.

In August, an illegal immigrant truck driver was accused of causing a crash that killed three people in Florida. In September, another illegal immigrant was arrested after a truck he drove caused an accident that resulted in a 5-year-old girl suffering critical injuries.

This month, Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested an illegal immigrant from Kyrgyzstan after his truck hit a van in a head-on collision that killed four people in Indiana. He had obtained a commercial driver’s license in Pennsylvania, the Department of Homeland Security said in a Feb. 5 statement.

The Trump administration’s actions against unqualified drivers in the trucking industry has faced legal challenges.

In December, the state of California sued the administration after DOT decided to withhold $33 million in federal funding over the state allegedly failing to comply with the English proficiency requirement for truckers.

California argued in the lawsuit that it does enforce English-language rules for commercial drivers, accusing the DOT action of being “arbitrary and capricious, an abuse of discretion, and contrary to law; imperils the safety of all persons driving in California; and threatens to wreak significant economic damage.”

In June, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration launched a nationwide review that discovered widespread noncompliance regarding the issuing of commercial driver’s licenses across several states, especially California, Colorado, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, and Washington.

In September, Duffy announced emergency action to restrict the eligibility of foreign-domiciled drivers to obtain these licenses.

Licenses to operate a massive, 80,000-pound truck are being issued to dangerous foreign drivers—oftentimes illegally,” Duffy said.

More recently, DOT announced on Jan. 8 that a review of North Carolina’s nondomiciled commercial driver’s licenses by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration found that 54 percent were issued illegally. Duffy called this a dangerous situation.

“I’m calling on state leadership to immediately remove these dangerous drivers from our roads and clean up their system,” he said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 02/08/2026 - 10:30

Pages