Germany Submits To Islam: Christmas Market In Overath Cancelled

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In the German town of Overath (North Rhine-Westphalia), this year’s Christmas market has been cancelled. The cost of protecting visitors from potential terrorist attacks exceeds the organizer’s budget. The city refuses to cover the expenses. A capitulation to Islamism.

It wasn’t long ago that Christmas markets were among the social highlights of the year. Whether in small towns or major cities – they were meeting points for friends and family, for mulled wine, sausages, and quiet conversations wrapped in winter’s cold and early darkness.

Places of Togetherness 

There was this special peaceful coziness. A place where community was celebrated – joyful, calm, and without fear. A tradition that brought people closer together.

What would urban life be without safe and regular gatherings in public spaces? A wasteland. A dystopia.

These moments – when people could pause, breathe, and let the soul drift for a moment – have become scarce in Germany’s public life. Since 2015, since Angela Merkel’s open-border decision, Europe has entered its own Michel Houellebecq moment.

The mass influx of young men from predominantly Islamic countries has deeply shattered the population’s sense of security.

The Loss of Carefreeness 

And in this increasingly tense atmosphere, just when Chancellor Friedrich Merz touched a sore point by speaking about the changing face of cities, a manufactured storm of outrage erupted against him.

Even after deadly Islamist attacks – Berlin’s Breitscheidplatz in 2016 with 12 victims, the Solingen festival stabbing in 2023 with three dead, or the bombing plot at the Magdeburg Christmas market last year – Germany still refuses to confront militant Islam pressing into Europe.

The aggressive rejection of any criticism within Islamic circles points to the core problem: Islam never passed through the crucible of Enlightenment like Christianity did. Christianity’s claws were cut – and what remained was woven into the psychological fabric of modernity.

The list of Islamist attacks in Germany and Europe is long and growing month by month. And it proves how intimidation of secular Western society has become successful – when even traditional festivals like Christmas markets are only possible behind heavy police presence and concrete barriers to stop jihadist vehicle attacks.

The feeling of carefree celebration is gone.

Another Christmas Market Falls 

The cancellation of this year’s Christmas market in Overath near Cologne fits perfectly into this picture. High security costs to protect visitors from terrorism make it impossible to open. The city refused to cover the organizer’s expenses.
The same now in Dresden – several smaller private Christmas markets cancelled because security costs exploded.

For one and a half years, the market association tried to negotiate with city officials, said Andreas Korschmann, head of the town marketing group.

Wouldn’t this be precisely the moment for the city to step up? Aren’t politicians always preaching about civic engagement and vibrant local life?

But there is no sign of courage, no standing up for a free, tolerant society. Just hollow political phrases for their own feel-good bubble.

In Overath, Islamists have managed – without any real resistance – to push aside a piece of tradition and communal life.

Outside knife-free zones and heavily policed city centers, a chilling silence spreads.

Winter Markets as Fig Leaf 

The pitiful renaming of Christmas markets into “Winter Markets” was already a bow to Islam. A needless kowtow to an increasingly irritable, alienated homegrown left-wing milieu.

Germany is trapped in an identity and cultural crisis.

It’s impossible to ignore: large parts of politics and society have thrown in the towel, surrendering to Islamist pressure and the obvious threat.

A real solution would begin at the border – with a completely new regime controlling who enters the country. But the political Left and its media complex successfully taboo such measures as nationalist extremism.

The policy of open borders – a one-way membrane into the welfare state – has inflicted deep wounds on German society over the last decade. This is not just a vague feeling of insecurity; it is statistically documented in black and white.

With endless migration waves and the lack of cultural immune defense, German traditions and public life are fading into a deafening silence.

Michel Houellebecq’s grim vision of Europe bowing before militant Islam is, year after year, turning into a bleak certainty.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 07:20

Diageo Lowers Outlook On Dismal Drinking Demand As Shares Hit Decade Low 

British spirits giant Diageo Plc, one of the world's largest drink makers, tumbled to a 10-year low on Thursday after lowered guidance overshadowed better-than-expected first-quarter sales. Wall Street analysts noted mounting frustration over the lack of detail regarding the company's search for a new chief executive.

The maker of Don Julio, Johnnie Walker, Casamigos, Smirnoff, and many other popular bar beverages now expect organic net sales to be flat to slightly lower, compared to prior guidance for growth. This dismal outlook overshadowed stronger-than-expected first-quarter sales. 

Diageo shares in London fell 6% to a 10-year low, down 58% since peaking around 4,000 pounds in 4Q21.

Interim CEO Nik Jhangiani acknowledged a dismal outlook but reaffirmed that Diageo's $625 million cost-savings plan remains on track. Also weighing on sentiment is the lack of color over CEO succession after Debra Crew's sudden July exit. 

"We are not satisfied with our current performance and are focused on what we can manage and control," Jhangiani said in the statement.

Wall Street analyst reactions 

• Jefferies (Buy): Warned that the lack of management succession news could weigh on shares; said cash guidance is unchanged, but EBIT and sales were revised down, with Q1 ahead of expectations.

• RBC (Sector Perform): Highlighted that Q1 results beat expectations but full-year guidance was reduced due to weaker North American and Chinese demand; also noted no CEO update.

• Citi (Buy): Acknowledged Q1 beat but flagged that FY26 guidance downgrades and a likely weaker Q2 outlook could pressure the stock; nonetheless, sees limited downside as FY26 EPS consensus is unlikely to fall materially.

More broadly, U.S. spirits faced another transition year as demand continues to slide, mirroring a similar decline in China. Younger U.S. consumers have been abandoning alcohol in favor of healthier lifestyle trends, further pressuring overall consumption.

At the start of this year, we cited a Goldman note that warned clients, "There is no sign of a bottom, with risks still skewed to the downside," for Diageo shares. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 06:55

My morning train WFH reads:

• The Old Order Is Dead. Do Not Resuscitate. Few things are more disconcerting than feeling the ground shift beneath you, as anyone who has experienced a serious earthquake knows. This is what we are living through. A way of ordering economic life — neoliberalism — that emerged in the 1980s is weakening rapidly. (New York Times)

• AI is probably not a bubble: AI companies have revenue, demand, and paths to immense value. (The Power Law) see also AI Could Be the Railroad of the 21st Century. Brace Yourself. In the 1800s, the railroads took over the economy, changed the way we work, and reshaped American politics. Sound familiar? (Derek Thompson)

• Will Private Equity’s ‘Window of Opportunity’ Last? PE firms have cleared their books of some long-held assets now that buyers and sellers have both gotten more realistic about prices. (Institutional Investor)

• Institutional Investors Begin to Embrace ETFs: Once used for cash or transition management, exchange-traded funds are taking a bigger role in institutional portfolios. (Chief Investment Officer)

• New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich: Don’t bet on a millionaire exodus now that Mamdani won the mayorship. (Businessweek)

• 102 Lessons from the 102 Books I Read This Year. Here are the most interesting things I learned this year while reading 102 books. (Scott H Young)

• A Beloved Clothing Store Closed. A Customer Bought All 4,500 Items. Everything in the shop appeared to have been abandoned. A devoted customer took it all home and started selling the items herself. (New York Times) see also How a Handyman’s Wife Helped an Hermès Heir Discover He’d Lost $15 Billion: Nicolas Puech says his wealth manager isolated him from friends and family and siphoned away a massive fortune. Then came the clue that began to reveal the deception. (Wall Street Journal)

• Five takeaways as Democrats sweep elections in New Jersey,  Virginia, and California: The party won the governor’s race in both states and a state attorney general’s contest that was up in the air, as voters delivered a rebuke of President Donald Trump. (Washington Post)

• Astounding stream of stars caught escaping from nearby galaxy: Stellar streams are faint trails of stars that appear to “stream” out of galaxies. A new one, escaping galaxy M61, may point to many others. (Big Think)

• Bob Dylan’s Superpower is That He Doesn’t Get Embarrassed: On the Icon and the Enigma. (Literary Hub)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Brandon Zick, CIO of at Ceres Partners, where he is responsible for all investments, including Ceres Partners flagship farmland fund and Ceres Food & Agriculture private equity strategies. He serves on the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Advisory Council and Small Business, Agriculture & Labor sub-council. Ceres was just purchased by Wisdom Tree Investing.

 

If Trump’s Tariffs Are Ruled Illegal, Businesses Expect Refund Chaos

Source: Bloomberg

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

What's The Real Reason Why The Economist Wants Europe To Spend $400 Billion More On Ukraine?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Federalizing the EU, not the political fantasy of defeating Russia, is the real goal, which requires another four years of proxy warfare and at least another $400 billion to complete.

The Economist argued that the EU and the UK should meet Ukraine’s estimated $390 billion financing needs over the next four years.

In their words, “Another half-decade of [Russia’s supposedly worsening economic-financial situation] would probably trigger an economic and banking crisis in Russia”, while “Any long-term financing solution for Ukraine would help Europe build the financial and industrial muscle it needs to defend itself.”

This would only cost 0.4% of GDP per NATO member (excluding the US).

They also fearmongered that “The alternative would be for Ukraine to lose the war and become an embittered, semi-failed state whose army and defence industries could by exploited by Mr Putin as part of a new, reinvigorated Russian threat.” While it’s unlikely that Ukraine would ever team up with Russia to threaten any NATO state, Ukraine might blame Poland for its loss, after which Ukraine might back a terrorist-separatist campaign in Poland waged by its ultra-nationalist diaspora as warned about here.

Regardless of whatever one might think about the aforesaid scenario, the point is that The Economist is employing a typical carrot-and-stick approach in a bid to persuade its elite European audience that it’s less costly for them to foot Ukraine’s estimated $390 billion bill across the next four years than not to. The immediate context concerns the US’ intensified proxy war of attrition against Russia as part of Trump’s new three-phased strategy that’s meant to bankrupt the Kremlin and then stir unrest at home.

To be clear, citing this strategy doesn’t imply endorsement, it’s just meant to show why The Economist thinks that its audience might now be receptive to its appeal. About that, it’ll be a hard sell to convince folks that they need to subsidize Ukraine to such an extent over the next nearly half-decade, which could entail more taxes and social spending cuts. After all, the $100-110 billion spent this year (“the highest sum yet”) didn’t push Russia back, so the same amount over the next four likely won’t either.

Russia’s war chest is also big enough to continue funding the conflict during this time, so The Economist’s proposal would merely retain the status quo instead of alter it in the West’s favor. The dynamics might even shift further in Russia’s favor, The Economist candidly warned to its credit, “if Russia can tap China for funds”. In that scenario, the EU would likely be compelled to “tap” its own population for an equivalent sum to at least retain the status quo, thus worsening their burden with no clear end in sight.

As The Economist wrote: “for the EU to issue bonds collectively would create a bigger pool of common debt, deepening Europe’s single capital market and boosting the role of the euro as a reserve currency. A multi-year horizon for weapons procurement would help Europe sequence the build-up of its defence industry.” This aligns with July 2024’s assessment that “The EU’s Planned Transformation Into A Military Union Is A Federalist Power Play”. Federalizing the EU, not defeating Russia, is therefore the real goal.

This insight enables one to understand why EU elites – especially in EU-leader Germany – complied with the US’ anti-Russian sanctions at their own economic expense. In exchange for neutralizing the euro’s potential to rival the dollar, EU elites were allowed to accelerate the bloc’s federalization to entrench their power, which the US approved after no longer viewing the now-subordinated EU as a latent threat. Another four years of proxy warfare and at least ~$400 billion are now required to complete this process.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 06:30

US Sanctions North Korean Bankers, Institutions Over Money Laundering

The United States on Nov. 4 imposed sanctions on individuals and entities accused of assisting North Korea in laundering money generated from cyberespionage and illicit activities.

The Treasury said the measures aim to cut off financial resources that support Pyongyang’s nuclear programs because the communist regime in Pyongyang relies on such illicit activities to fund its ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs.

More than $3 billion—mostly in cryptocurrency—has been siphoned off by North Korean-affiliated cybercriminals through advanced malware and social engineering over the past three years, according to the Treasury’s estimates. The department described the scale of financial theft by Pyongyang as unparalleled by any other nation.

“North Korean state-sponsored hackers steal and launder money to fund the regime’s nuclear weapons program,” said John Hurley, the Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

“By generating revenue for Pyongyang’s weapons development, these actors directly threaten U.S. and global security.”

As The Epoch Times' Dorothy Li reports, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed penalties on two individuals named Jang Kuk Chol and Ho Jong Son, who are accused of helping manage $5.3 million in cryptocurrency and other funds on behalf of a financial institution previously sanctioned by the Treasury, First Credit Bank.

Some of the money can be traced back to a North Korean ransomware actor that previously targeted American victims and managed revenue from North Korean IT workers, the Treasury said.

The department also sanctioned Korea Mangyongdae Computer Technology Company and its president, U Yong Su.

The North Korea-based tech company allegedly used Chinese nationals as “banking proxies” to obscure the origin of funds generated by the North Korean IT workers’ illicit revenue generation schemes, it said.

Pyongyang employs banking representatives, financial institutions, and shell companies located in places such as Beijing and Moscow to launder funds generated through illicit financial activities, including IT worker fraud, digital asset theft, and sanctions evasion, according to the U.S. government.

Among those targeted is Ryujong Credit Bank, a North Korea-based financial institution accused of providing “financial assistance in sanctions avoidance activities between China and North Korea.”

“These activities have included the remittance of North Korea’s foreign currency earnings, money laundering, and financial transactions for overseas North Korean workers,” the department said.

In addition, four representatives of North Korean financial institutions based in China and Russia were also added to the sanctions list. Included is Ho Yong Chol, who allegedly facilitated the transfer of more than $2.5 million in U.S. dollars and Chinese yuan on behalf of U.S.-designated Korea Daesong Bank, while managing transactions exceeding $85 million for another North Korean state-affiliated entity.

The sanction came weeks after the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, an 11-nation group led by the United States, released the latest assessment of North Korea’s cyber operations.

North Korea’s cyber force is “a full-spectrum, national program operating at a sophistication approaching the cyber programs of China and Russia,” the report reads.

In late June, the U.S. Justice Department announced criminal charges against individuals allegedly involved in Pyongyang’s scheme to fund its nuclear weapon programs by helping North Korean IT workers get jobs at more than 100 American companies, including Fortune 500 groups.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 05:45

The Ban On Ricky Gervais' Billboard Saying "Welcome To London, Don't Forget Your Stab Vest" Shows We Are No Longer Free

Authored by Lee Taylor via DailySceptic.org,

Last week, Britain’s comedy treasure, Ricky Gervais, took to social media to rant about how his proposed billboards for Dutch Barn Vodka had been rejected.

Each banner featured a dark but hilarious slogan that would have inevitably won the applause of Britain’s disillusioned masses.

Its rejected lines include:

• “Dutch Barn, drugs this good are usually illegal.”

• “Dutch Barn, your tube driver’s favourite drink in the morning.”

• “Dutch Barn, one day you’ll be underground for good.”

Ironically, the slogan to cause the most amusement of all among social media followers was the following:

• “Welcome to London, don’t forget your stab vest.”

Brits particularly appreciated this version as it bravely stood as a dark, tongue-in-cheek nod to Britain’s knife-crime epidemic.

But to the rule makers it was just another offensive idea that was banned due to being too ‘inappropriate’. 

Merely a day after Gervais delivered his rant, reality took a terrifying turn. On a Doncaster-to-London train, a man went on a blood-fuelled rage, stabbing 10 innocent people. Real life quickly turned darker than the joke, and not even the most intuitive writers could have scripted it. 

Gervais, who has made a career out of saying what others daren’t, simply held up a mirror. The reaction proved his point: in Britain today you can be stabbed on your commute, but you can’t harmlessly address it on a poster. And, if you have to know a single fact about the British psyche, it is that we cope by mocking life’s miseries – that’s the British spirit for you.

Transport for London was quick to deny the censorship, insisting the campaign was never formally rejected. Who knows, maybe it was all a publicity stunt – but that only underscores the point. In today’s climate, Gervais’s kind of humour wouldn’t stand a chance of official approval.

Advertising used to be a marketplace of ideas, brash, creative, sometimes tasteless, but free. Now it’s a managed space policed by people who think their job is to protect us from ourselves. The regulators pore over copy like priests parsing scripture, deciding what the public may or may not see. ‘Misleading’, ‘offensive’, ‘harmful’. The list of forbidden words grows weekly.

But this isn’t just about prudishness or brand safety. It’s about ideology. The modern advertising world has become a proxy for the wider culture war: a class of bureaucrats and creative-industry lifers enforcing political orthodoxy under the guise of ‘standards’. They’re terrified of a complaint on X and paralysed by the idea that someone, somewhere, might take offence.

On the Underground, censorship is practically civic policy. The same network that hosts endless government propaganda about ‘climate action’ and ‘diversity’ suddenly loses its appetite for satire, religion or, heaven forbid, criticism of London itself. Remember the “Are you beach body ready?” poster that was banned for hurting feelings? The one showing a woman in a yellow bikini? Sadiq Khan couldn’t get to a microphone fast enough to declare London a “body-positive” zone. But as Gervais says: “Just because you’re offended, doesn’t mean you’re right.”

Since then, Khan’s office has vetoed everything from meat adverts to oil campaigns, always in the name of public virtue. He governs the capital like a headmaster confiscating magazines, deciding what adults are allowed to look at between stations. It’s not public transport anymore; it’s a rolling sermon.

That’s why Gervais’s intervention matters. He isn’t some fringe provocateur. He’s one of Britain’s most-watched comedians, adored across class and political lines. When he takes aim at hypocrisy, whether it’s celebrity moralising or political correctness, people listen. He has an instinct for where the real line of public decency lies, and it’s a long way from where our cultural gatekeepers have drawn it. 

The fact that even he can’t get a joke past the bureaucrats tells you how far we’ve drifted. If Gervais can’t advertise satire, what hope is there for anyone trying to challenge consensus thinking? When the king starts killing the jester, you know the kingdom’s in trouble.

Advertising should be judged by one metric alone: does it persuade? If it’s stupid, tasteless or misses the mark, the market will kill it. Viewers will sneer, consumers won’t buy, and brands will learn. That’s accountability, not a panel of political appointees policing tone and subtext.

It’s time to strip moralism out of marketing. Dismantle the cosy club of regulators, councils and committees that treat adults like children. Let the people, the supposed targets of all this messaging, decide what offends them and what doesn’t. Because when you hand censorship to the state or its cultural proxies, it never stops at adverts. It spreads. One day you can’t mock London crime; the next you can’t discuss it. 

Lee Taylor is CEO and Founder of marketing agency Uncommon Sense.

Tyler Durden Thu, 11/06/2025 - 05:00

Escobar: Taming The Sound And Fury Of The Empire Of Chaos

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

Close the door, put out the light
You know they won’t be home tonight
The snow falls hard and don’t you know
The winds of Thor are blowing cold

Led Zeppelin, No Quarter

In a matter of less than a year, Russian scientific know-how came up with four bangers:

1. Oreshnik: hypersonic missile, already tested in the Ukraine battleground.

2. Burevestnik: Or “Stormbringer”, with that nice Deep Purple ring. Nuclear cruise missile with unlimited range.

3. Poseidon: nuclear-powered torpedo, capable of loitering underwater, undetected, for unlimited time; then, at a command, strikes enemy coasts with a nuclear payload, provoking a radioactive tsunami. Largely exceeds the destructive power of the Sarmat, Russia’s largest ICBM.

4. Khabarovsk: nuclear sub. Call him The Messenger of Doom: capable of delivering at least 6 Doomsday-enabling Poseidons.

President Putin was crystal clear when detailing some key facts.

The “compact nuclear systems” used in the Burevestnik and the Poseidon “can also be adapted to create new energy sources, including for the Arctic.”

Putin also stressed how both Burevestnik and Poseidon “use only Russian-made parts”. Praise the Lord for those chips from upgraded Soviet washing machines.

And there’s a lot more to come following the tracks of Burevestnik and Poseidon: “I’m talking about…the Avangard system, or the serial production of the Oreshnik missile system…soon the heavy intercontinental Sarmat missile.”

The Sarmat – nicknamed Satan II – will enter combat next year: a super-heavy ICBM, carrying 10 heavy warheads, and compatible with the Avangard hypersonic glider, capable of dodging any anti-ballistic missile system.

Welcome to Russia’s next generation nuclear-powered cruise missiles, with reactors going online in a matter of seconds, and 3x speed of sound, heading towards hypersonic status.

In a nutshell: Burevestnik and Poseidon “will ensure strategic parity for the whole 21st century.”

Cue to thunderous silence heard all across the NATOstan sphere – permeated by the usual “the Russians are bluffing” gaggle noise.

Who cares? Facts are stubborn, and continue to be incontrovertible. Extra facts: Putin and Xi signing into law a mutual investment protection agreement, which translates as China protecting trillion-dollar worth Russian companies, Sberbank, Rosneft and Lukoil in case of a potential NATO-Russia war.

Or, in Eurasia connectivity corridor terms, take Putin, during the Russia-Central Asia summit, proposing unifying Eurasian logistics projects into a single network: “This would allow us to exponentially increase the volume of international transportation through our shared region.”

The massive economic/trade potential of Eurasia still remains largely untapped. Cut to the Russia-China goal of building a production-technological belt from the Russian Far East to Central Asia.

Ain’t got no deal on Russia-China

Well, these sharp facts are inbuilt in the new, emerging global reality, now a historical process – in sharp contrast with the paroxysms of Deep Desperation exhibited by the fragmented West and, significantly, the rise and rise of unilateral Empire of Chaos bullying.

Exhibit A is of course Venezuela.

The Circus Ringmaster – in a revamped remix of the war on drugs meets the war on terra – is mulling:

Bombing of Venezuelan military bases; deployment of Navy SEALS to capture or kill President Maduro; “securing” – as in invading and seizing Venezuelan oil fields, after controlling their key airfields; or even all of the above.

Trump 2.0, totally bypassing the US Congress and of course the illegality of assassinating foreign leaders, is already drafting dodgy legal “justifications” to go after Maduro as a “narco-terrorist” – much to the delight of ghastly Nobel Prize 5th columnist Machado, the female Guaido.

Total psyops is in full effect – complete with intimidating B-52 and B-1 bombers and the deployment of aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and thousands of troops.

Venezuelans though are not impressed. Diego Sequera, from the excellent Mission Verdad, notes, “if you take how things are seen from here you get the feeling that nothing will happen. No social breakdown, no one’s freaking out. Everyone is about their business looking for la plata with an end-year holiday mood.”

Still, they have to run rings over Circus Ringmaster – who wants all that oil so bad (the takeover of natural resources is essential to maintain the Empire) and pathetic neo-con gusano Marco Rubio’s only obsession in life: regime change in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.

And that brings us, once again, to the insoluble Empire of Chaos drama. TACO Trump, even if his brain is not capable of conceptualizing it, may be coming to grips with the hard facts of life: he cannot “win” – or impose a “deal” – on the Russia-China strategic partnership.

On the contrary: he needs to find diversionist tactics to evade the fact he is being inflicted a massive strategic defeat in Ukraine (yes, it’s his war now) while he simply does not have the cards (all made in China) to win a protracted trade-tariff-tech war against Beijing, as demonstrated in that G-2 in South Korea. Managed decoupling is already on.

Still, the supreme delusion of American military might persists, graphically incarnated by the clownish Secretary of Forever Wars. Can’t harm Moscow or Beijing? Caracas will do.

Oh, that Shakespearean sound and fury signifying…nothing, as the Empire of Chaos devours itself by re-colonizing the vassal puppies (Europe), financial shakedown-style, while threatening/ bullying selected Global South latitudes.

Emmanuel Todd has summed it all up, succinctly. What to do when “this is indeed the first American strategic defeat on a global scale, in a context of massive deindustrialisation in the United States and difficult reindustrialisation”, while “it is already too late to compete [with China] industrially.”

Hence the vociferous, bullying Circus Ringmaster, without saying a word (a miracle, in his particular case) progressively hitting TACO-on-steroids territory when it comes to Russia-China.

That’s our cue to the new Netflix series: the Empire of Rage lashing out, irrationally, against anyone, any nation, it deems weaker, a graphic demonstration of its massive resentment. Those fishing boats are full of narco-terrorists because I say so. Kill them all.

An extra danger is that the EUro-chihuahuas take a cue from this irrational drive to increase their Russophobic provocations inter-galactically. The only rational way to deal with it would be by Oreshniking them.

The mountains are high, but the Emperor is everywhere

A classic Chinese motto, repeated dynasty after dynasty, merrily states that “The mountains are high, and the Emperor is far away”. Well, in our contemporary case, there’s no mountain high enough – to borrow from Motown – and the all-seeing Emperor of Chaos, enabled by AI, is everywhere.

Yet even that is not enough to prevent him from collapsing inside his own schizophrenic bubble, unleashing Primal Fear into the intertwined plutocracies of Big Money, Big Oil and Big Tech.

Dystopia Central: it’s not hard to draw the map of the deep, dark geostrategic void self-described “elites” plunged themselves in.

And that brings us to how – in which register – the Russian leadership is watching the show. No expectations: realism prevails.

There may be a Trump 2.0 escalation in Ukraine – or not. There may be a more devastating attack on Iran – or not. There may be a serious regime change attempt in Venezuela – and that one is a near certainty. Trump 2.0, after all – complete with Zionist oligarchs on backing vocals – is a privileged psycho-killer realm.

And then there’s the ultimate chimera: de-dollarization – which is happening in practice, slowly but surely, without being named, in several domains. Only four months ago, the Circus Ringmaster was in panic: “BRICS was set up to hurt us; BRICS was set up to degenerate our dollar and take our dollar … off as the standard”.

The panic is still there. So when in doubt – and when you can’t strike Russia-China – the next “best” option is to strike another BRICS member. Demand capitulation from Iran. Or else. Tehran, as much as Caracas, is not impressed.

Chinese wisdom, once again, would solve the enigma: “Let him be strong, the breeze will blow over the hills; let him be arrogant, the bright moon will shine on the vast rivers.”

It will be a very rough ride – to stare down the Empire of Chaos without letting it unleash Total Dementia, destabilizing Africa, West Asia, the Caribbean, everywhere, using the Syria al-Qaeda playbook (the former headchopper is to be received at the Oval Office soon).

Are China-Russia – and a great deal of the Global Majority – really ready? Call it an auspicious vow.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 23:25

Visualizing The Cost Of The American Dream In 2025

The American Dream isn’t cheap. Owning a home, raising a family, and retiring comfortably now total over $5 million across a lifetime for a household.

This milestone has grown increasingly out of reach as the median age of a U.S. homebuyer has risen to 56, up from 31 in 1981. Meanwhile, U.S. fertility rates have hit record lows amid rising unaffordability.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the cost of the American dream in 2025, based on analysis from Investopedia.

ℹ️ The full methodology that shows how Investopedia calculated each of these costs can be found here.

The American Dream Costs $5 Million Over a Lifetime

Below, we show the lifetime cost for a household of each key markers of the American Dream:

Retirement is set to cost $1.6 million, the biggest expense overall.

This was calculated by taking $63,609 in average U.S. retirement spending per year, while factoring a 2.5% rate of inflation over 20 years. Today, 86% of Americans say its their dream to retire comfortably.

Home ownership has an average lifetime cost of $957,594. To calculate these costs, Investopedia applied the median U.S. home price of roughly $415,000 with a 20% down payment. Then, payments for a 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.69% were calculated, excluding maintenance and Homeowners Association fees.

As we can see, car ownership also comes at a large cost—estimated at $900,346. However, it’s worth noting that this applies to a household buying two new cars every 10 years. While this includes insurance costs, maintenance, and monthly payments, it does not factor in the proceeds from selling your car.

Meanwhile, raising two children will total $876,092 (including a four-year degree at a public college). If your dream is to have a wedding, the average cost now stands at $38,200, including the ring, ceremony, and reception.

Sponsored By: Cboe

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on America’s home buyers by generation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 23:00

5 Leadership Lessons From Winston Churchill For Today's World

Authored by Dustin Bass via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Winston Churchill was a man of action. He was born in 1874, during a period known as the Pax Britannica (1815–1914) and during the relative peace that had settled over Europe after the Franco-Prussian War of 1870. Nonetheless, as a young man, Churchill understood that military service was a sure path toward political elevation. To become a great leader in the political theater, he believed he first needed to be one in the theater of war. The following is what was required to make him the greatest leader of the 20th century.

British Prime minister Winston Churchill (C) walks with field Marshal Montgomery (R) along the east bank of the Rhine near Wesel, Germany, during World War II on March 25, 1945. STF/AFP via Getty Images Experience

Churchill was not an academic. He considered his schooldays to be “the only barren and unhappy period of my life.” Aside from writing and history, he did not perform well in school, thus he never attended university. He did, after three attempts, gain entrance to Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, graduating in 1894 near the top of his class and joining the 4th Queen’s Own Hussars.

From 1895 to 1900, Churchill witnessed the action he sought while doubling as a war correspondent in Cuba, India, Sudan, and South Africa, during which he was awarded the Spanish Order of Military Merit, the India Medal, the Queen’s Sudan Medal and the Khedive’s Sudan Medal, and the Queen’s South Africa Medal.

After losing his election to the House of Commons in 1899, Churchill returned to the battlefield to cover the Second Boer War in South Africa. It was here Churchill would make his name. On Nov. 15, 1899, while he was aboard an armored train, the Boers attacked, derailing several cars. Despite his journalistic position, Churchill led the charge to protect the train and clear the track, enabling it to escape. Thirty-eight British soldiers were either killed or wounded, and 23 were taken prisoner, Churchill among them.

Just as with his schooldays and garrison duties, being a prisoner of war proved boring. It was, however, an opportunity for further adventure. One December night, he escaped the prison and traveled approximately 300 miles across enemy lines to safety in today’s Mozambique, where he was welcomed as a hero.

A thirst for adventure and his literary gift for conveying those adventures not only made him one of the highest paid war correspondents, but enabled him to cultivate his image.

(L-R) British Prime minister Winston Churchill, Sir Miles Dempsey, British 2nd Army commandant, and British general Marshal Bernard Montgomery visit the destroyed city of Caen, France, after Allied forces stormed the Normandy beaches on D-Day, on July 23, 1944. STF/AFP via Getty Images Knowledge

As noted above, Churchill was not an academic. Nonetheless, he loved literature and history, and whenever he was not writing his war correspondences, engaging in battle or competing in polo, he was reading and studying. The extensive downtime in military life allowed him to devote hours to study. He studied Parliamentary debates, wrote down the arguments, and established his perspective on each. As Churchill scholar James Muller noted, “Churchill made himself his own university by reading great books.”

Certainly Churchill read for leisure, but the histories and biographies, as well as those debates, were not leisure reads. He utilized his present time in the military to create ammunition for his political future. Just as he craved adventure, he craved knowledge and wisdom in order to fuse together prudence with his courage.

Principles

By the time Churchill took his seat as a member of Parliament in 1901, he had fought bravely in four wars, become one of the world’s best war correspondents, and had written five books. He was, at the age of 26, already a known commodity. Knowledgeable? Yes. Courageous? Certainly. Principled? Without question.

As with any political figure, one must choose a party, and Churchill initially chose the Conservatives (Tories). He did not, however, choose party over principle. For example, as a Free Trader, a position the Conservatives had long held, he became vocally critical of his party when it began to shift toward protectionism. On May 31, 1904, he took a huge political risk during a session of Parliament when he walked from the Conservative side to the Liberal.

Churchill remained with the Liberal Party for the next two decades until it began supporting the up and coming Labour Party. For Churchill, Labour leaned too close to socialism, a political movement he abhorred throughout his life. In 1924, Churchill returned to the Conservatives where he remained for the rest of his political career.

Just as he understood the risks of courage on the battlefield, he understood the risks of courage in politics. For the sake of principle, such risks were worth taking.

Conservative Party leader Winston Churchill (L) walks next to British leader of the Liberal Party David Lloyd George in London in 1934. STRINGER/FRANCE PRESSE VOIR/AFP via Getty Images Prescience

Churchill’s experiences and exhaustive study of human history perhaps developed his prescience. Whether he developed it or it was simply innate, Churchill’s insight into human affairs was often proven correct well, including his perspectives on the dangers of Vladimir Lenin and the Russian Revolution, appeasing Adolf Hitler, trusting Joseph Stalin and the Soviets as an ally, the human cost of giving India independence too soon, and the coming Cold War. Furthermore, as Minister of Munitions during World War I, he proved the strongest supporter of what he called “land caterpillars” (i.e. tanks), ensuring their development and necessary inclusion in the war.

Though such prescience often left him labeled a war monger, he called that accusation “cruel and ungrateful.”

Reflecting on his leadership during World War II, he stated, “Ten years in the political wilderness had freed me from ordinary party antagonisms. My warnings over the last six years had been so numerous, so detailed, and were now so terribly vindicated, that no one could gainsay me. I could not be reproached either for making the war or with want of preparation for it.”

Time

“London will be in danger and in the high position I shall occupy,” Churchill told a friend in 1891, “it will fall to me to save the Capital and save the Empire.”

Of course, when he made that statement no one would have believed him. Indeed, had he attempted to lead a political or military cause, no one would have followed him. 

Somehow Churchill knew at a young age he was destined for greatness, and he dedicated himself to that proposition. His courage in both the military and political arenas, coupled with his willingness to stick to his principles and speak unfashionable truths, had prepared him to guide Great Britain through its darkest hour.

His decades of marching on life’s proving grounds ensured his voice rose above the rest, enabling his listeners to adopt his courage, even when he stated, “If this long island story of ours is to last, let it end only when each one of us lies choking in his own blood on the ground.”

To be the champion of—and to be championed for—such a statement doesn’t happen simply because one is a fine writer, although that is something for which Churchill was certain known. Rather, it comes through a long and arduous journey, and is forged by qualities that made Churchill the greatest leader of the 20th century. These are qualities today’s leaders would be prudent to follow.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 22:35

34 Illegal Immigrant Truck Drivers Arrested In Oklahoma: ICE

A two-day operation led to the arrest of 70 illegal immigrants in Oklahoma, which included 34 drivers operating a semi-truck or a commercial vehicle, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said in a Nov. 4 statement.

The arrests were made in partnership with the Oklahoma Highway Patrol between Oct. 28 and 29, said the agency. It is part of Operation Guardian, which has “resulted in the arrest of many illegal aliens driving trucks that had been issued Commercial Drivers Licenses in states with sanctuary policies such as California, Illinois, and New York,” the agency said.

In places that follow sanctuary policies, local officials refuse to enforce immigration laws or comply with federal authorities.

Out of the 34 illegal immigrant truck drivers, 26 were issued a commercial driver’s license (CDL) while eight were “dangerously driving” vehicles without such licenses, ICE said.

The illegal immigrants are from 15 different nations, including China, Mexico, Turkey, Colombia, India, Guatemala, and Venezuela.

As The Epoch Times' Naveen Athrappully details below, ICE said illegal immigrants who operate vehicles without proper authorization pose a threat to public safety and undermine the rule of law. The operation sends a “clear message” that such activities won’t be tolerated, it said.

Operation Guardian is a deportation initiative implemented in February and led by Oklahoma’s Commissioner of Public Safety Tim Tipton.  Oklahoma aims to use existing state and federal regulations to transfer offending illegal immigrants for deportation proceedings.

“Operation Guardian continues to successfully keep Oklahomans safe,” said Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt.

“To lawfully operate a commercial motor vehicle in Oklahoma, you must be here legally, and you must be able to understand English. These are common-sense standards that we will continue to enforce.”

On April 28, President Donald Trump signed an executive order requiring that all commercial vehicle operators in the country be proficient in English.

“There’s a lot of communication problems between truckers on the road,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at the time. “We’re going to ensure that our truckers, who are the backbone of our economy, are all able to speak English.”

In an Oct. 30 statement, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said 223 illegal immigrants, including 146 truck drivers on Indiana highways near the Illinois state line, were arrested as part of an enforcement operation targeting public safety threats.

The illegal immigrants have engaged in criminal activity, including drug trafficking, assault, child abuse, domestic battery, driving under the influence, and fraud, DHS said. Out of the 146 drivers, more than 40 were issued CDLs, mostly by New York, California, and Illinois.

“Far too many innocent Americans have been killed by illegal aliens driving semi-trucks and big rigs. And yet, sanctuary states around the country have been issuing illegal aliens commercial driver’s licenses. The Trump Administration is ending the chaos,” said DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.

In August, an illegal immigrant from India was arrested after making an illegal U-turn in an 18-wheeler in Florida, colliding with a minivan and killing three people. He pleaded not guilty in September.

Strengthening Driver License Rules

In a Sept. 26 statement, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) said it had conducted a nationwide audit that uncovered a “catastrophic pattern” of states issuing driver’s licenses illegally to foreign nationals.

Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy announced emergency actions to make noncitizens ineligible for a nondomiciled CDL unless they meet “a much stricter set of rules,” FMCSA said.

The stringent regulations include undergoing a mandatory federal immigration status check that uses the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system.

“What our team has discovered should disturb and anger every American,” Duffy said.

“Licenses to operate a massive, 80,000-pound truck are being issued to dangerous foreign drivers—often times illegally. This is a direct threat to the safety of every family on the road, and I won’t stand for it. Today’s actions will prevent unsafe foreign drivers from renewing their license and hold states accountable to immediately invalidate improperly issued licenses.”

The U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants submitted comments to the Federal Register, criticizing the move to end nondomiciled CDL for foreign nationals, the group said in an Oct. 29 statement.

The move will not only threaten the livelihood of immigrant drivers but also the stability and well-being of the United States, the committee said.

“Trucking is a job that requires long nights and days away from loved ones. It is a hard job that not many willingly sign up for. As a result, the industry has struggled to keep drivers on staff,” said the group.

“Assailed by these steep labor shortages, immigrant workers have picked up the slack: 18 percent of truckers are foreign-born. Like so many other industries, immigrants fill the jobs others do not want.”

During an Oct. 30 press conference, Duffy announced that the DOT will seek to withhold federal government funds from states issuing nondomiciled CDLs to foreign nationals who are unlawfully in the United States.

States need to ensure that people who receive such licenses are proficient in English, Duffy said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 22:10

Our Modern Madhouse Exposes A Collective Laziness Of Mind

Authored by Todd Hayen via Off-Guardian.org,

Black, White, And The Comfortable Lie

I was talking to a very close friend the other day who happens to be a die-hard Trump hater (I know what you are thinking, don’t ask). We unfortunately drifted into a “discussion” about the January 6 fiasco (and also don’t ask me why I bother). Time and time again, I run into this sort of thing—where the position on the left believes they are 100% right about any particular controversial topic.

No matter how much contradicting (to their position) information I provide, they dismiss it all as garbage. “It is obvious what it is, and that’s that.” As with most things these days, I find this odd.

Nothing is 100% a particular way, with zero valid argument in the other direction. Nothing except very simple things. I am, of course, describing the infamous “false binary” or “false dichotomy” or “false dilemma.”

This is nothing new, of course. The idea of the false binary has been kicking around human thought since the days when philosophers in togas were debating the nature of reality. It’s a logical fallacy that’s as old as logic itself, with roots stretching back to ancient Greece.

Aristotle, that granddaddy of Western philosophy, touched on similar ideas in his works on rhetoric and ethics, warning against oversimplifying complex arguments into rigid either-or choices that ignore the messy nuances of life. He didn’t call it a “false dichotomy” per se—that term came later—but he was essentially calling out the same intellectual laziness in his critiques of sophistry, where debaters would trap opponents in contrived binaries to win points rather than seek truth.

Fast-forward a few centuries, and the concept gets more formalized during the Enlightenment, when thinkers like John Locke and David Hume started dissecting human reasoning and its pitfalls. But it really crystallized in the 19th and 20th centuries with the rise of formal logic and fallacy studies. Logicians like John Stuart Mill in his System of Logic (1843) highlighted how people often frame debates as black-or-white to manipulate outcomes, excluding middle grounds or alternative possibilities.

By the mid-20th century, it was a staple in critical thinking texts—consider Irving Copi’s Introduction to Logic in the 1950s, which cataloged it as a classic informal fallacy. In essence, a false dichotomy presents a situation as if there are only two mutually exclusive options, when in reality, there’s a spectrum, or third (or fourth, or fifth) paths lurking in the shadows. It’s like saying, “You’re either with us or against us,” as if loyalty is a switch that can’t be dimmed or rewired.

This trick forces people into polarized corners, shutting down dialogue and making compromise seem like betrayal.

In our modern madhouse, it’s weaponized everywhere—from politics, where elections are pitched as apocalyptic battles between good and evil, to the Covid era’s “vax or die” mantra that erased any talk of natural immunity or alternative treatments. It’s a mind trap that preys on our tribal instincts, making us feel secure in our righteousness while blinding us to the gray areas where real understanding lives. And that’s the shrew’s (contrarian thinkers) edge: spotting these illusions before they hook us.

Kit Knightly, the sharp-witted editor at Off-Guardian, wields the term “false binary” (or its sly cousin “fake binary”) like a scalpel in the operating theatre of narrative dissection—precise, incisive, and always aimed at the festering heart of controlled opposition.

Primarily on OffG, where he’s been a cornerstone voice since the site’s early days, Knightly deploys it to unmask how power structures peddle rigged choices. Such as the endless left/right, red/blue, or vaxx/anti-vaxx traps that corral dissent into neat little pens, ensuring the real exit stays bolted shut. His star turn? Co-hosting the September 2024 livestream “Debunking the False Binary” with the freshly minted Independent Media Alliance (IMA)—flanked by heavyweights like Iain Davis, Derrick Broze, and James Corbett. There, they eviscerate the “fake binary” as a core narrative control technique, spotlighting how “alternative” media gets infiltrated with hopium-laced divides: Trump saviors vs. Harris horrors, pro-Ukraine “freedom fighters” vs. pro-Russia isolationists, or techno-utopias vs. Luddite panic—all engineered to seed division while the technocratic overlords chuckle from the shadows.

Elsewhere, Knightly echoes this in IMA’s launch manifesto, framing the false binary as public enemy #1 in alt-media warfare: countering “false two-party paradigms,” imperial war cheerleading, and digital ID “solutions” pitched as the lone fix for every ill. Knightly doesn’t just name the fallacy; he maps its deployment in real-time psyops, from Covid compliance cults to election theatre, urging us to torch the scripts and dance in the nuance.

Why do people cling to false dichotomies like life rafts in a storm? Sure, the agenda-pushers love them—black-and-white framing is the perfect divide-and-conquer tool, herding sheep into opposing pens while the shepherds count the wool. But let’s not pretend that’s the whole story. The real rot runs deeper, straight into the human psyche, where comfort trumps complexity every time.

Most folks aren’t wired for the cognitive marathon that critical thinking demands. Nuance is exhausting; it requires holding contradictory ideas in your head without your brain blue-screening. Polarity? That’s a cozy blanket. Pick a side, slap on a label, and suddenly the world makes sense—no pesky gray areas to trip over. It’s the mental equivalent of fast food: quick, satisfying, and ultimately bad for you. Cognitive dissonance is painful; false binaries are painkillers.

Carl Jung, that old Swiss sage of the psyche, nailed it when he spoke of the “tension of the opposites”—the electric space where thesis clashes with antithesis, birthing the living synthesis that is real life.

This isn’t some tidy resolution; it’s a perpetual tightrope walk, demanding we hold the unbearable “unknowning” in our trembling hands, staring into the abyss between black and white without flinching. Most sheep-types (and I have to say, many shrew-types as well these days) bolt for the cliffs of certainty, terrified of the vertigo that comes with admitting “maybe I’m wrong, maybe it’s both, maybe it’s neither.” The ego screams for solid ground—pick a side, plant a flag, silence the dissonance—so they collapse the tension into a false binary, snuffing out the very spark that could illuminate truth. Most critical thinkers (at least the ones I mingle with) thrive in the friction, muscles aching from the pull, because that’s where the gods hide, whispering secrets to those brave enough to listen without answers.

Then there’s the tribal pull. Humans are pack animals, and nothing bonds a group faster than a common enemy. “Us vs. Them” isn’t just a narrative trick—it’s evolutionary. Back in the savanna days, you didn’t survive by pondering the moral ambiguity of the rival tribe; you picked your side and swung the club. Today, that instinct gets hijacked by algorithms and talking heads, but the wiring’s the same. Admitting your team might be wrong feels like betrayal, so people double down, even when the facts are screaming otherwise.

And yes, critical thinking’s been on life support for decades. Schools teach compliance, not curiosity. Media rewards outrage, not analysis. Social platforms amplify the loudest, simplest takes. We’ve raised generations that confuse certainty with strength and doubt with weakness. When you’ve never been taught to question, polarity isn’t just easier—it’s the only path you can see. And this, needless to say, is largely, if not entirely, the work of the agenda, whose sole intention is to control the masses.

That said, the agenda exploits what’s mostly already there: a collective laziness of mind, a fear of ambiguity, and a desperate need to belong. The shepherds don’t create the sheep; they just build better fences. Those of us who use our critical thinking see the gates and seek ways out of the herd. Most don’t even look.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 21:45

China Introduces New Exports Controls On Antimony, Tungsten And Silver

According to Trump, his big achievement a week ago when he announced the trade truce with China, was getting Beijing to agree to remove export limitations on rare earth minerals, which as most now know are so critical for US companies to make everything from cell phones, to cars, and military equipment. And yet, as discussed on a few occasions this week, it feels like the cracks in this latest trade deal are already starting to show, whether it is Beijing ordering Trump what he can't talk about, or quietly ring-fencing its domestic data center by banning US AI chips.

And now, it appears that while China granted Trump a 1 year reprieve on rare earths, it is quietly tightening the export noose on other, just as important minerals.

According to the Global Times, China has introduced new export controls on silver, antimony, and tungsten.

In the statement published on the MOFCOM's website last Thursday, the export controls are for the 2026-27 period, and have the stated aim of "stepping up the protection of resources and the environment."

The Global Times continues:

The document was proposed by the Department of Foreign Trade of MOFCOM, based on the regulations outlined by the Foreign Trade Law of and the Regulations on the Administration of Import and Export of Goods. It aims to protect resources and the environment and enhance the export management of rare metals, said the MOFCOM.

Which is amusing: the only reason why China is currently the world leader in global rare earth refining - which is an extremely polluting and toxic process - is precisely because China has absolutely no regard for the environment; that's because it has a huge land mass which is expendable, and it can use and abuse as it sees fit, and has millions of workers which are just as expendable.

Take the world's largest rare earth processing mine, Bayan Obo, which is located in the barren Inner Mongolia region, and which has generated over 70,000 tons of radioactive thorium as toxic byproducts from years of REE processing.

As the Harvard International Review wrote recently, "China was only able to establish such [Rare Earth] dominance over the REE industry in large part because of lax environmental regulations. Low cost, high pollution methods enabled China to outpace competitors and create a strong foothold in the international REE market. This market is now booming: China spiked its outputs for the first half of 2021 by more than 27 percent, hitting record levels of REE extraction as demand increases.

The most infamous mine in China is Bayan-Obo, the largest REE mine in the world. Even more infamous than the mine itself is the tailing pond it has produced: there are over 70,000 tons of radioactive thorium stored in the area. This has become a larger issue recently because the tailing pond lacks proper lining. As a result, its contents have been seeping into groundwater and will eventually hit the Yellow River, a key source of drinking water. Currently, the sludge is moving at a pace of 20-30 meters per year, a dangerously rapid rate.

So no, China's stated purpose of limiting exports because it is suddenly worried about the environment is bullshit. What isn't, however, is that Beijing has strategically realized that while it can give Trump some RREs, it will limit access to other products which are just as important across supply chains, thus exposing yet another near-shorting choke point. 

As the Global Times notes, "China's exports of tungsten products - excluding cemented carbide tools and tungsten halogen lamps - totaled 12,000 tons from January to September of this year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 13.75 percent compared with the same period in 2024... The material can be used for manufacturing light filaments and optical instruments. As a major exporter of rare metals China produced more than 80 percent of global tungsten supply in 2023, according to data from the United States Geological Survey, the Reuters reported."

And so the game of export whack-a-mole in the second World Trade War continues: today the US is getting rare earths (at least until Trump has another Truth Social meltdown), but just got stopped out on other, just as important materials. This export control rotation will continue until the day the US is self-sufficient, which however due to the abovementioned environmental limitations, will take a very long time unless somehow the US govt funnels enough money in domestic producers (and allows them to dump the toxic by products anywhere - who knows maybe Elon can blast them off into space) to short circuit the process.

Until then, go long stocks of domestic miners that specialize in extracting and producing anything and everything that China feels like no longer exporting to the US.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 21:20

Japan Sends Troops To Combat Spike In Fatal Bear Attacks

Authored by Guy Birchall via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Japan deployed troops to the north of the country on Nov. 5 to help control bears in the area, after local authorities said they were struggling to cope with an unprecedented wave of attacks.

A black bear stands near the side of Highway 881 near Conklin, Alberta, on May 10, 2016. The Canadian Press/Jonathan Hayward

Soldiers from the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) have been sent to the area to work alongside local hunters to help bring the animals under control, according to news outlet The Asahi Shimbun.

The troops, however, will not be allowed to use firearms in the operation but will be restricted to bear-repellent spray for deterrence and protection, and will assist in setting box traps, conducting patrols, transporting hunters, moving captured or culled bears, and collecting information.

The operation began in Kazuno, a city in Akita Prefecture in the far north of the main island of Honshu.

Kazuno has seen a sharp uptick in bear sightings in recent weeks, with residents urged to avoid the thick woods surrounding the settlement and stay indoors after dark to keep clear of the bears foraging near homes.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also told the Japanese parliament that the government will decide on emergency measures to address bear-related issues by the middle of the month.

“We will implement necessary measures in a timely manner without waiting for the final decision to be made,” she said, according to Japanese news agency Jiji.

Since April, Japan has seen more than 100 bear attacks with a record 13 people killed across the country in the same time period, according to the Ministry of the Environment.

Two-thirds of those deaths were in Akita Prefecture and the neighboring Iwate Prefecture.

In Akita, authorities say bear sightings have jumped sixfold this year to more than 8,000, and attacks are on track to set a new record, prompting its governor to request help from the Self-Defense Forces last week.

After Kazuno, a town of around 30,000 people known for its hot springs and scenery, the GDSF soldiers will move on to Odate and Kitaakita under an agreement that lasts until the end of the month, according to news outlet NHK.

Rising bear numbers, shifts in natural food sources, and depopulation of rural areas are increasingly bringing people into contact with bears. Meanwhile, the hunters, many of whom are aging, on whom authorities used to rely to deal with the problem, have found themselves overwhelmed this year.

In recent weeks, bears have attacked customers inside a supermarket, a tourist walking to a bus stop near a UNESCO World Heritage site, and a worker at a hot spring resort.

Bear attacks usually peak in October and November, as the animals search for food before entering hibernation.

Japanese black bears, common across most of the country, can weigh up to 265 pounds, while the brown bears on the northern island of Hokkaido can weigh more than 1,300 pounds, according to Bear Conservation.

In September, the government relaxed gun rules to make it easier for hunters to shoot bears in urban areas.

The law change now allows municipal authorities to ask licensed hunters to cull or capture bears, provided they ensure the safety of affected communities by restricting traffic and evacuating residents in cooperation with police.

Previously, the law banned hunters from shooting the animals in densely populated areas, except when they were ordered to do so by police due to a threat to life, the Japan Times reports.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 20:55

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET The initial weekly unemployment claims report will NOT be released.

"Cut The Federal Budget In Half... And Get More Done..."

Elon Musk told Joe Rogan, during his latest podcast appearance, that given unlimited powers (which he doubts is possible in our supposedly democratic regime), he could "cut the federal budget in half.. and get more done."

Reflecting on his disappointing efforts at DOGE (which he notes were stalled by both the left and the right not wanting to end the grift), Musk notes the authoritarian nature of an end-game solution to the US government's spending problems make it nearly impossible, but he argues that many U.S. government departments are wasteful and counterproductive, citing the Department of Education as a prime example.

Created in the late 1970s, he said, educational outcomes have worsened ever since - proving that centralization often destroys competition and results.

As 'Camus' noted on X, Musk questioned why, when America first thrived with just a few departments - State, Treasury, War, and Justice - we now need an enormous federal apparatus that employs millions in roles “that add no real value.”

Referring to a famous Milton Friedman anecdote, Musk mocked the idea that keeping unproductive jobs alive somehow benefits society.

“If you want job creation for its own sake,” he joked, “have people dig with teaspoons instead of shovels.”

His core philosophy was clear: true progress comes from productivity, innovation, and useful work - not bureaucracy.

Watch the brief interchange here...

Elon Musk on the Joe Rogan Podcast: “Cut the federal budget in half—and get more done.”

Elon Musk argued that many U.S. government departments are wasteful and counterproductive, citing the Department of Education as a prime example. Created in the late 1970s, he said,… pic.twitter.com/rmiTvKtUA6

— Camus (@newstart_2024) November 5, 2025

Source: Camus

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 20:30

Family Violence Against Seniors In Canada Reaches Record High

Authored by Chandra Philip via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Incidents of family violence against Canadian seniors has hit a record high, according to data from Statistics Canada.

The recently released StatCan report found that the number of seniors mistreated by a family member has risen 49 percent since 2018. StatCan analyzed police-reported incidents of family violence nationwide for the study.

Seniors were most often victimized by a child (36 percent) or spouse (28 percent), the report found, while 25 percent were victimized by another family member, with 11 percent identifying the perpetrator as a sibling.

A total of 7,622 incidents of senior family violence were reported to police in 2024.

StatCan noted there has been a 4 percent increase in family violence against seniors since 2023, which was considered the highest recorded rate at the time.

Seventy-two percent of senior victims said they were victims of a physical assault by a family member in 2024, while 17 percent said they were a victim of threats.

The number of family violence cases for senior women was slightly higher than than of senior men, with 104 female victims per 100,000 people and 92 males per 100,000 people.

StatCan said women 65 years and older were most often mistreated by their child (34 percent) or spouse (32 percent), while 39 percent of senior men said they were victimized by their child and 21 percent reported being mistreated by a spouse.

Overall, the rate of family violence increased by 17 percent between 2018 and 2024, according to StatCan. The report also said that cases of intimate partner violence increased by 14 percent during the same time period.

Police services in Canada said there were 349 victims of family violence per 100,000 population in 2024, StatCan noted.

The StatCan report also noted an increase in intimate partner violence among victims aged 12 or older—a number that grew 14 percent.

The rise was larger for men and boys, who saw a 21 percent increase, compared to women and girls, who saw a 16 percent increase.

StatCan said there were 25,938 child and youth victims of police-reported family violence in 2024, a rate of 345 victims per 100,000 population aged 17 and younger.

The report said that 30 percent of children were mistreated by a family member.

The rate of family violence against children has increased 26 percent since 2018, with most being victimized by a parent (61 percent), while 15 percent were victimized by a sibling and 24 percent by another family member.

The majority children and youth (57 percent) were victims of physical assault, while 33 percent of child and youth were victims of sexual assault.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 20:05

"That'd Be So Sick!": Sydney Sweeney May Bounce Into The Ring For Charity Boxing Match

Sydney Sweeney, who may or may not have 'perfect titties' (she does), has hinted at getting in the ring for a charity boxing match.

The 28-year-old actress has packed on 35 pounds to play world champion boxer Christy Martin in a new sports biopic out Nov. 7, and tells SportsCasting that she may put on the gloves for real.

"There was a moment in the middle of filming where I was like, ‘Should I give it all up and fight because I love this," she said, adding that Martin, 57, offered to sign her up. 

"So, this isn’t as hypothetical as you actually think it is," Sweeney continued. "I’d totally do a charity bout, that’d be so sick!"

Sydney Sweeney stars as Christy Martin in ‘Christy.’ (Josh Lawson/Black Bear)

When asked who she'd fight, the actress said: "It’s a surprise, you’ll have to wait, I’m serious ... "You gotta stay tuned for the pay-per-view and you’ll see it."

Martin, who Sweeney plays, served as a consultant on the biographical film. Other cast members include actors Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, and Katy O'Brian.

The former pro boxer was a trailblazer in women's boxing - earning the WBC female super walterweight title in 2009, before she survived an attempted murder at the hands of her ex-husband, James Martin - who was found guilty of second-degree murder with a firearm in 2012 and sentenced to 25 years in prison. He died in November of last year while serving out his sentence at Graceville Correctional Facility in Florida. 

"Christy, your story has completely changed me, and as we get closer to sharing this film with the world, I wanted to share something," Sweeney posted on Instagram over the weekend.

"One of the first things I watched when I got this role was this video. Her powerful testimony at her ex-husband’s hearing. The man who tried to kill her. I hope this film helps so many others."

Sweeney has also starred in the following photo shoots and public displays of sexyness, which we're posting in the name of good journalism: 

Perfect titties confirmed

We'll give you a few minutes alone... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 19:40

US To Cut Flights By 10% At 40 Airports As Shutdown Persists

Air traffic at 40 major US airports will be cut by 10% starting Friday as travelers continue to face flight disruptions due to a spike in air traffic controller absences during what is now the longest government shutdown on record. 

During a Wednesday press briefing alongside the leader of the Federal Aviation Administration, Bryan Bedford, US transportation secretary Sean Duffy said that the Federal Aviation Administration would begin reducing flights later this week to keep air travel safe as it contends with shutdown pain on top of a nationwide shortfall of about 2,000 air traffic controllers. 

The names of the 40 affected airports would be released on Thursday, FAA head Bryan Bedford said at the press conference with Duffy, who said the decision would be data-based. 

“The data will dictate what we do,” Duffy said. “If the data goes in the wrong direction, could you see additional restrictions? Yes.”

“This is not based on what airlines have more flights out of what location. This is about, ‘Where’s the pressure, and how do we alleviate the pressure?’” Duffy said. 

Duffy said the cuts were necessary to maintain air travel safety. Cuts to international flights hadn’t been discussed, although unless the shutdown situation changes, those too are likely. Bedford added that he sees the FAA restricting space launches as well. 

Airlines were expected to advise customers of changes to scheduled flights after Thursday’s announcement.

The transportation secretary added that steps had already been taken to shore up its workforce — including offering cash bonuses to incentivise retirement-age controllers to continue working, and “surging” trainees at its academy.

“The shutdown is having an impact on our ability to maintain those numbers and dent that 2,000 shortage that we have,” he added.

The FAA has been forced to slow traffic at many airports in recent days due to rising controller staffing shortages since the government shutdown began on Oct. 1. Air traffic controllers continue to work without pay.

Millions of passengers have grappled with flight cancellations and delays related to staffing since the shutdown started, Airlines for America, a trade group, said. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 19:15

China Orders State-Funded Data Centers Not To Use Foreign AI Chips

Yesterday we said that with Beijing giving Trump a list of 4 "red lines" he should note cross (including i) Taiwan, ii) democracy and human rights, iii) China’s political system, and iv) development rights), the countdown to the end of the trade truce has started because there is no more certain way to get Trump to do something than to tell him he shouldn't. 

And in a move that will only accelerate Trump's anger, the Chinese government issued guidance requiring new data centre projects that have received any state funds to only use domestically-made artificial intelligence chips, Reuters reported.

In recent weeks, Chinese regulatory authorities ordered such data centres that are less than 30% complete to remove all installed foreign chips, or cancel plans to purchase them, while projects in a more advanced stage will be decided on a case-by-case basis, the Reuters sources said.

Some projects have already been suspended before breaking ground as a result of the directive, including a facility in a northwestern province that had planned to deploy Nvidia chips, one of the sources said. The project, being developed by a private technology company that received state funding, has been put on hold, the source said.

The move could represent one of China's most aggressive steps yet to eliminate foreign technology from its critical infrastructure amid a pause in trade hostilities between Washington and Beijing, and achieve its quest for AI chip self-sufficiency.

China's access to advanced AI chips, including those made by Nvidia has been a key point of friction with the U.S., as the two wrestle for dominance in high-end computing power and AI. Trump said in an interview aired on Sunday following talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week that Washington will "let them deal with Nvidia but not in terms of the most advanced" chips.

Beijing's response: if you limit technology, we will come up with our own. 

The move by Beijing, would dash Nvidia's hopes of regaining Chinese market share, while giving local rivals, including Huawei, yet another opportunity to secure more chip sales. Besides Nvidia, other foreign chipmakers that sell data centre chips to China include AMD and Intel. 

It remains unclear whether the guidance applies nationwide or only to certain provinces, although it is likely the case that this will soon become the norm unless something changes. The sources did not identify which Chinese regulatory bodies had issued the order. 

Unlike in the US where corporations are funding data center buildout - either through cash flow, equity or debt - AI data center projects in China have drawn over $100 billion in state funding since 2021, according to a Reuters review of government tenders. Most data centers in China have received some form of state funding to aid their construction, but it is not immediately clear how many projects are subject to the new guidance.

Beijing has long been irked by Washington's export controls aimed at impeding China's tech progress and has taken a series of measures, including retaliatory moves, to wean itself off US technology. In response, the US has been aggressively ramping up Industrial Policy to boost domestic rare earth mining and refining to ween itself off reliance on Chinese rare earth production. The latest trade truce gives Trump about a year to come up with a viable alternative and a domestic rare earth industry which has seen substantial, but still mostly insignificant, funding from the US. 

The US justified its restrictions by alleging the Chinese military would use the chips to increase its capabilities. China has discouraged local tech giants from purchasing advanced Nvidia chips over security concerns this year, while showing off a new data centre powered solely by domestic AI chips.

And in 2023, Beijing banned the use of Micron'sproducts in its critical infrastructure, which paved the way for a decision this year by the largest U.S. memory chipmaker to exit the server chip market in China, Reuters reported last month.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly lobbied Trump and his cabinet to allow the sale of more AI chips to China, arguing that keeping its superpower rival's AI industry dependent on U.S. hardware was good for America's interests.
Its current share of the Chinese AI chip market is zero, compared to 95% in 2022, according to the company.

Excluding foreign chipmakers like Nvidia from big state projects would eliminate a significant portion of their China revenue, even as a deal is agreed to allow the resumption of advanced chip sales to China. The new guidance on data centres covers Nvidia's H20 chips, the most advanced AI chip the U.S. firm is allowed to sell to China, but also more powerful processors such as the B200 and H200, the sources said.

While the B200 and H200 are barred from being shipped to China by U.S. export controls, they remain widely available in China through grey-market channels.

Of course, the obvious next question is does China have the technology to actually achieve parity with the US.

With the latest directive, the Chinese government is carving out even more market share for domestic chipmakers. China has a range of AI chip companies, from the most prominent, Huawei Technologies, to smaller players such as Shanghai-listed Cambricon and startups including MetaX, Moore Threads, and Enflame.

While products from these Chinese companies already rival some of Nvidia's offerings, they have struggled to crack the market. Developers used to Nvidia's reliable software ecosystem have been reluctant to adopt domestic alternatives.

Lastly, while the move would help boost sales of domestically developed chips, it also risks widening the U.S.-China gap in AI computing power. U.S. tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and OpenAI have spent or allocated hundreds of billions of dollars to build data centres powered by Nvidia's most advanced chips. Meanwhile, leading Chinese chip manufacturers like SMIC are facing supply constraints due to U.S. sanctions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment that have hit advanced chip production capacity.

In the end, the most likely endgame is one where both Beijing and DC directly fund their domestic AI industries to win the next "arms race" which will be who gets to AGI first, as the cost for not getting there first will be existentially staggering. As such, we expect a substantial spending spree from the US government to fund even more progress as Trump seeks to expand the tech gap with China, which in turn will further blow out the US budget deficit and lead to an even faster growth in the US federal debt in coming years. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 18:50

US Household Debt Hits Record $18.6 Trillion As Student Loan Defaults Explode

The NY Fed published its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.

Surprising exactly no-one, the report showed that total household debt increased by $197 billion (1%) in Q3 2025, to a new record high of $18.59 trillion. split between $13.5 trillion in housing debt and $5.1 trillion in non-housing debt.

“Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards.” 

Some details:

• Mortgage balances grew by $137 billion in the third quarter and totaled $13.07 trillion at the end of September 2025.
  • Mortgage delinquency rate rose to 0.83% from 0.82% prior quarter
• Credit card balances rose by $24 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.23 trillion.
  • Delinquency rate at 12.41%, highest since 2011
• Auto loan balances held steady at $1.66 trillion.
• Home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances rose by $11 billion to $422 billion.
• Student loan balances rose by $15 billion and stood at $1.65 trillion.

In total, non-housing balances rose by $49 billion, a 1.0% increase from Q2 2025. 

Taking a closer look we find that...  

• The pace of mortgage originations increased with $512 billion newly originated in Q3 2025.

The only silver lining in the report is that housing debt levels and delinquencies have stabilized: “Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” Donghoon Lee, an economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said in a press release accompanying the figures. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards."

While that is true, let's see what happens to the US housing market once the avalanche starts, tipped off the by scramble to sell everything in the mecca of Capitalism, New York City, which is now controlled by a communist. 

Moving on: 

• There was $184 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the third quarter, a small dip from the $188 billion observed in Q2 2025.

• Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $94 billion, representing a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter.
• Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $8 billion, continuing the growth in HELOC limits that began in 2022.

Of course, with rising debt, come rising delinquencies, and in the case of student debt, absolutely explosive ones.

As the NY Fed writes, aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in Q3 2025, with 4.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transitions into early delinquency were mixed with credit card debt and student loans increasing, while all other debt types saw decreases.

Transitions into delinquency (30+ days)...

... and serious delinquency (90+ days) increased across all debt types.

Total consumer bankruptcies jumped to 141,600 in Q3, the highest since the covid crash year of 2020. 

Taking a closer look at the ground zero of the current consumption crisis, namely student Loans, where outstanding debt stood at $1.65 trillion in Q3 2025.  

And the punchline: missed federal student loan payments that were not previously reported to credit bureaus between Q2 2020 and Q4 2024 are now appearing in credit reports. Consequently, student loan delinquency rates have continued to surge after a sharp rise in the first half of 2025. In Q3 2025, 9.4% of aggregate student debt was reported as 90+ days delinquent or in default, as compared to 7.8% in Q1 2025 and 10.2% in Q2 2025. Also of note in the chart below, the credit card serious delinquency rate is actually creeping up even faster, and hit 12.41%, the highest since 2011.

And the most remarkable observation: over 20% of all student debt by those aged 50 and over (!) is effectively in default (technically it is still delinquent, but if millions haven't made even a token effort to repay it in 90 days, one can safely classify it as in default).

That's millions of potential consumers whose credit rating is about to get obliterated and who will not have access to credit cards or other debt forms for a long time. 

More in the full New York Fed presentation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/05/2025 - 16:35