Amazon Plunges After Forecasting 50% Surge In Capex To $200BN

In our AMZN earnings preview, we said that the price reaction from META and GOOGL "leaves Amazon in a precarious place as it prepares to report earnings after the close today: does it project some berserk number or does it risk being conservative? After all, the only thing that will matter is the capex forecast (the earnings will likely be good enough)."

Well, we were wrong: the earnings were not good enough: the company missed on earnings and its guidance was rather week. And so before we even get to the biggest shock of the report - the company's CapEx guidance - here is what the company reported for Q4:

• EPS $1.95, missing estimates of $1.96... an ugly miss at the very top.

Revenue was a bit better, and even though several items (physical stores, third party sellers missed), AWS was stronger than expected.

• Net sales $213.39 billion, beating estimate $211.49 billion
  • Online stores net sales $82.99 billion, beating estimate $82.3 billion
  • Physical Stores net sales $5.86 billion, missing estimate $5.88 billion
  • Third-Party Seller Services net sales $52.82 billion, missing estimate $53.16 billion, net sales excluding F/X +10%, estimate +11.2%
  • Subscription Services net sales $13.12 billion, beating estimate $12.74 billion, net sales excluding F/X +12%, estimate +10.4%

The good news is that the most important revenue item, AWS, beat:

• AWS net sales $35.58 billion, beating estimate $34.88 billion; net sales excluding F/X +24%, estimate +21%

This was an impressive number as the 24% YoY increase in AWS revenue not only smashed estimates, but was the highest in three years: remarkable growth for a business that keeps growing and has a more difficult base effect to "beat" every quarter. 

Geographically the results were disappointing with North America missing, offset by strength in International

• North America net sales $127.08 billion, missing estimates of $127.21 billion
• International net sales $50.72 billion, beating estimates of $49.74 billion

Going down the line: 

• Operating income $24.98 billion, beating estimate of $24.82 billion; this included charges of $1.1 BN
• Operating margin 11.7%, in line with the estimate of 11.7%
• North America operating margin +9%, beating estimate +8.51%
• International operating margin 2.1%, missing estimate 4.27%
• Fulfillment expense $30.83 billion, below estimate $31.42 billion

In its release, the company said that demand was strong for AI, Chips, Robotics, and all other Existing Offerings. 

While AWS sales growth was solid, just as impressive was the the margin for the segment also increased from 34.64% in Q3 to 35.03%, just beating the median Wall Street estimate of 35%. Elsewhere, North American profit unexpectedly jumped to $11.472 billion, resulting in a profit margin of 9.03%, beating estimates of 8.51%, while international margins dropped to to 2.05% from 2.93%, missing estimates of an increase to 4.27%.

As a result of the drop in AWS profits, Amazon's consolidated operating margin posted a notable jump and in Q4 increased 9.7% to 11.7%, just shy of an all time high. 

However, while the above data was ok, it was the company's guidance that led to an immediate collapse in the stock price after hours. No, it wasn't the revenue, although that did come in a bit weak: 

• Net sales are expected to be between $173.5 billion and $178.5 billion, or to grow between 11% and 15% compared with first quarter 2025. The midpoint is a bit weak compared to the median estimate of $175.54 billion.

The projected 13% revenue growth is on the low-end of where the company has been in the past year. 

But while revenue guidance was disappointing, if a bit muted, it was the company's capex guidance - a first for AMZN - that stole the show, because with Wall Street estimates of $146.1 billion in 2026 capex, the company went and reported that it expects to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, a 50% increase from 2025 and an openly ridiculous number, one which is more than a quarter higher than the consensus estimate! Needless to say, there is just not enough grid capacity and electrical power to satisfy the $700BN in CapEx guidance among the Mag7s. 

The number was so shocking that even though Wall Street may have been ready to give AMZN the benefit of the doubt for its solid AWS performance and impressive margin bounce, the CapEx guidance was just so gargantuan, there was no way the stock would jump especially after yesterday's GOOGL debacle. Putting the updated capex numbers in context, the 5 bighyperscalers now expect to spend over $700BN in capex next year. The only problem: there is nowhere near enough electrical capacity to feed all these brand new data centers.

And so AMZN crashed after hours, sliding as much as 11%, and trading around $200. Another $15 drop from here, and the stock will be where it last traded in 2021...

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 16:50

Xi Used Latest 2-Hour Call To Warn Trump On Taiwan Red Lines

More details have emerged from Wednesday's Trump-Xi phone call, which it turns out was quite lengthy for the two leaders, lasting about two hours. We reviewed previously that President Trump hailed the "excellent" call, which was "long and thorough" - but Chinese version which was issued later presents something more contentious.

China’s official readout made clear that President Xi in the conversation focused heavily on Taiwan, and ways Washington can dial back the tensions over the self-ruled island.

Xi called the US approach to Taiwan "the most important issue in China-U.S. relations," declaring that China "will never allow Taiwan to be separated from China."

Xinhua Image

"The US must handle arms sales to Taiwan with extreme caution" Xi said, in reference to the billions in arms packages the US has signed off on over several years, spanning multiple administrations.

Taiwan was quick to respond to the contents of this call, with Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, telling reporters Thursday: "The Taiwan-US relationship is rock solid, and all cooperation projects will continue uninterrupted."

Separately Taiwan's foreign ministry also pointed out that US weapons sales to Taiwan continue unabated, Xi's warnings notwithstanding. Another key part of the call is seen in the following:

China is considering buying more U.S.-farmed soybeans, President Donald Trump said after what he called "very positive" talks with President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, even as Beijing warned Washington about arms sales to Taiwan.

In a goodwill gesture two months before Trump's expected visit to Beijing, Trump said Xi would consider hiking soybean purchases from the United States to 20 million metric tons in the current season, up from 12 million tons previously. Soybean futures rallied.

Trump has repeatedly stressed the need to keep lines of communication open with Beijing, even as he insists on safeguarding American interests and regional security, and as Washington continues arms support to Taipei.

"The relationship with China, and my personal relationship with President Xi, is an extremely good one, and we both realize how important it is to keep it that way," Trump had written on Truth Social Wednesday, soon after the call was conclued.

"I believe that there will be many positive results achieved over the next three years of my Presidency having to do with President Xi, and the People’s Republic of China!" - he followed with.

I read a CIA assessment of Xi Jinping and it said that he was "incorruptible, doesn't care about money, doesn't drink or participate in any vices, and always knows the right answer".

Can you imagine what the Chinese assessment of Trump is?

— Mike from PA (@Mike_from_PA) January 27, 2026

But to review of Xi's red lines and Washington's proneness to testing them: "In December, the US state department announced its largest-ever arms sales package to Taiwan, valued at more than $11.1bn and including missiles, artillery systems and drones," writes The Guardian. "The package is yet to be approved by Congress."

"China reacted angrily to the proposed arms sales, conducting two days of military drills around the island in late December, for which it dispatched air, navy and missile units," report recalls.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 16:40

Trump Sidesteps 2028 GOP Endorsement On Vance, Rubio

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. President Donald Trump opted not to choose between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as potential successors in the 2028 Republican presidential primary during a Feb. 4 interview with NBC News.

U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio attend a meeting with oil industry executives at the White House in Washington on Jan. 9, 2026. Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

The president had, on earlier occasions, suggested that Rubio and Vance would be the top Republican contenders for 48th president of the United States.

In the NBC News interview, Trump was asked who should be at the top of the 2028 presidential primary ticket.

“Well, I don’t want to get into this. We have three years to go. I don’t want to, you know, I have two people that are doing a great job,” Trump said.

“I don’t want to have an argument ... I don’t want to use the word fight, it wouldn’t be a fight. But look, JD is fantastic, and Marco is fantastic.

“I would say one is slightly more diplomatic than the other. I think they’re both of very high intelligence. I mean ... they will do shows. They will do Joe Rogan, as opposed to the opponent not doing it because they couldn’t handle it.

“They’re both very capable. I do think this—the combination of JD and Marco would be very hard to be beaten.”

When asked whether he would endorse someone in the 2028 primaries, Trump replied he “hadn’t even thought of it” but would be inclined to do so.

Rubio ran as a Republican candidate in the 2016 presidential race, competing against Trump, who went on to win his first term. Since joining the second Trump administration, the 54-year-old has been active on multiple fronts.

In addition to serving as secretary of state, Rubio was appointed acting head of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in February 2025 and national security adviser in May 2025. In July of that year, he confirmed the shutdown of USAID, highlighting that foreign assistance provided by the agency failed to deliver results for Americans.

Earlier, in February 2025, Panama’s president said his country would not renew its Belt and Road Initiative agreement with China after a meeting with Rubio, who called on the country to address the Chinese Communist Party’s influence in the region, in what was one part of the Trump administration’s assertive moves in the Western Hemisphere.

Vance, who has been active in both domestic and international roles, was instrumental in blocking Democrats from restricting Trump’s ability to continue military action in Venezuela, casting the tiebreaking vote in the Senate that defeated the proposal. The 41-year-old has also emerged as a prominent defender and advocate of the administration’s “America First” agenda.

Both Rubio and Vance served as Republican senators prior to joining the Trump administration last year. Rubio was elected to the U.S. Senate from Florida in 2010, while Vance was elected to the U.S. Senate from Ohio in 2022.

Regarding a potential 2028 presidential ticket, Vance said in a media interview in October 2025 that he wants to perform well in the current administration before considering such a proposal.

Meanwhile, Rubio backed Vance as a great pick for the next presidential election without ruling himself out of the race.

In December, conservative organization Turning Point USA, now headed by Erika Kirk, endorsed Vance for 2028.

According to a Harvard CAPS Harris Poll fielded on Jan. 28 and 29, Vance “leads convincingly” among Republican voters as their next candidate for president. Vance got 53 percent of the polled votes, far higher than Rubio’s 17 percent, which put him in the third spot. Donald Trump Jr. took the second spot with a 21 percent share.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 16:20

 

 

I spend a lot of time in “How Not to Invest” discussing how our own biases often work against us. This is especially true when it comes to the information we consume relative to our investments and portfolio.

While we tend to focus on the biases in various media outlets or cable channels, we may not stop to consider how the algorithms that drive the social media platforms we consume are affecting our perception of current news events (See chart above).

The Argument takes this to the next level by using survey data on where people get much (most?) of their news and how this affects their perception of specific events. They don’t evaluate platforms by their bullish or bearish stance, but rather how major news stories show up in people’s partisan preferences by platform:

“Whether you’re getting your information from TikTok, Instagram, Reddit, Twitter, cable news, or elsewhere, platforms are shaping your information diet in ways you may not even notice. Content is inseparable from the vehicle within which it arrives.”

There is some risk that people gravitate to the platform that reflects their views; that certainly is likely ever since Twitter was purchased. Regardless of that selection issue, the results were quite surprising.

Consider the political leanings associated with each platform in the chart:

There is definitely an “algorithmic bias” built into all of these platforms.

I cannot say that I was surprised at Reddit, which tends to be more like the old internet — where college-educated, youth, and higher income skew to the left. I am a little surprised at TikTok, but I to assume it’s mostly a younger age demographic that drives all of that. I am completely unsurprised at Twitter…

If this sort of thing interests you, check out the complete piece, with lots more data and charts, at The Argument.

 

Previously:
TikTokInvestors (May 9, 2024)

The Price of Paying Attention (November 2012)

 

Source:
Twitter is not real life
by Lakshya Jain
The Argument, Feb 05, 2026.

 

 

 

I extensively detail why Social Media is the worst place to get your investing news from in How Not to Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth―and how to avoid them.”

It’s on sale at Amazon for $20.54!

 

 

 

The post How Platforms Influence Your Perception appeared first on The Big Picture.

Amazon Earnings Preview: All Eyes On CapEx

At first, the market was happy to reward big capex forecasts (META); but just a few days later, it changed its mind and decided that the bigger the beat, the bigger the penalty (as was the case with GOOGL today). That leaves Amazon in a precarious place as it prepares to report earnings after the close today: does it project some berserk number or does it risk being conservative? After all, the only thing that will matter is the capex forecast (the earnings will likely be good enough). 

Looking at the bigger picture, Bloomberg notes that it’s probably not a great sign that Amazon’s share price is down more than 4% on the day of earnings, before the first headline has even hit. After the hyperscalers Microsoft and Alphabet spooked markets with their huge spending plans -- Meta seems to have got away with it -- perhaps the best thing Amazon could do would be to announce that it plans only moderate capital expenditure in 2026. 

One thing in Amazon’s favor is that analysts aren’t really projecting too much growth. The consensus is that diluted earnings per share rose just a bit over 5% year-on-year to $1.96 in the fourth quarter. That’s little-changed from $1.95 in the third quarter. Revenue at Amazon Web Services is expected to have increased 21% to $34.9 billion, but that’s still less than half the revenue the company gets from its main business: online stores. Growth there is expected to be slower at roughly 9% year-on-year. 

Its business mix explains why Amazon is so much less profitable than its peers and why the profitability of the cloud business will be key.

Capex aside, here is a preview of what JPMorgan's trading desk expects:

AMZN PREVIEW – AWS Acceleration & AI Positioning

SENTIMENT – Bullish, But Concerns Remain. Conversations & focus heavily AWS-skewed, no change there. 3Q EPS & re:Invent provided clarity on capacity expansion, supply from NVDA, Trn 2/3 performance & rollout, Rainier timing & doubling. Investor focus on degree of acceleration & cloud industry $ re-capture. AWS price increases suggest strong demand. But concern remains around AMZN’s overall AI positioning/strategy, relative gap to Azure/Google Cloud growth, & Trn adoption. Strong Stores execution expected, along w/NA & Int’l margin expansion. 

The stock remains a Best Idea for JPM stgrategist Doug Anmuth." We remain bullish on AWS growth acceleration driven by core cloud growth & ramping AI contribution led by Project Rainier, Trn ramp, & new partnerships. N.America & Int’l OI margin expansion, solid AWS margins (though likely down Q/Q), & cost discipline support healthy FCF growth in ’26 even against AI-driven capex growth. Valuation attractive on GAAP P/E & FCF.

FOCAL POINTS – 

1. Accelerating growth on: 1) Project Rainier/Anthropic ramp; 2) increased capacity doubling by 2027; 3) Tr2 performance & Tr3 ramp; 4) core workloads/tech migrations
2. More backlog growth in October than all of 3Q…OpenAI partnership could expand
3. Watching $ growth Q/Q & Y/Y
4. AWS pushbacks: 1) mid-20’s%+ AWS growth could come w/Azure & Google Cloud growing 2x that rate; 2) Tr chip rollout still early & needs bigger adoption beyond Anthropic; 3) Anthropic cloud/compute diversification
5. Stores executing well w/8% holiday e-comm growth from Visa & Adobe slightly above
6. Lower cost to serve on robotics/automation & inbound improvements

Takeaway from the recent JPM survey – AMZN: Favorite Mega Cap (46% of respondents)

According to UBS strategist Dwyer, the most prominent question since 3Q she has gotten is, “Why isn’t this up more?” Her response is "that was market-related exiting the year or maybe investors were waiting for one more quarter of strong execution before backing, but for a long list of reasons it’s pretty clear that it is structural reacceleration and not just a one-time event."

Here are UBS's buy-side Bogeys which the company will have to overcome:

• Q4 AWS Growth: up 22-23% y/y
• Q4 EBIT: $26.5-27 bn versus guide $21-26 bn/ around 11% margin at midpoint
• Q4 Total Sales: high end of guide $206-213 bn/ around 10-13% y/y
• Q1 EBIT Guide H-E: $22.5-23 bn
• Q1 Total Sales Guide H-E: $176-178 bn

And the sellside consensus

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 15:45

You Don't Own Your Stocks the Way You Think You Do

Authored by Jack McPherrin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Most Americans believe that when they “buy” a stock, bond, or exchange-traded fund in a brokerage account, they become the legal owner of that security. The statement shows their name, and the shares appear as belonging to them.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Jan. 2, 2026. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

But in the modern U.S. securities system, that intuition is often wrong in the way that matters most: legal title and control. What most investors hold is not a directly owned asset recorded in their name, but a contractual claim—what the law calls a “security entitlement”—against a financial intermediary.

That may sound like semantics until one asks a simple question: In a systemic financial collapse, who is first in line to retrieve those securities? In other words, the difference between owning an asset and holding a claim can determine whether investors’ assets are legally subordinated to other claims, and whether investors recover their assets at all.

The answer depends less on what your account statement says and more on how Wall Street’s plumbing and a little-known uniform state law governing securities ownership were built to perform under stress.

The Invisible Owner of Record

For most of the history of securities markets—from English common law through much of the 20th century—investors who bought shares were recognized as their legal owners, often holding certificates in their own name. Trades were slower, more cumbersome, and paper-intensive, but ownership was straightforward. If you bought shares, you were typically the registered owner by default.

That is no longer how most securities ownership works.

The modern system is built around a centralized clearing and custody structure dominated by the Depository Trust Company (DTC), a privately owned institution controlled by the largest U.S. banks and broker-dealers. In broad terms, major brokers and banks “deposit” investors’ securities at the DTC, which holds them in pooled form. The registered owner reflected on issuer records is typically not the end investor and often not even the brokerage firm the end investor uses. It is DTC’s nominee, Cede & Co.

Here is the practical consequence: when you “own” a stock through a brokerage account, you are generally what is called a “beneficial owner” credited on your broker’s books. The owner of record is upstream, and the securities themselves sit in a centralized system designed to reduce costs and manage institutional risk—rather than to preserve clear, direct ownership for ordinary investors.

If that sounds like a technicality, think of the difference between owning a car and leasing a car. A lease can give you many of the benefits of use, but it is not the same legal relationship to the underlying property. In the same way, a security entitlement can provide financial benefits from an asset while leaving the investor multiple steps removed from legal title and direct control.

This distinction, quietly normalized over decades, has created a fragile kind of “ownership” that many investors do not understand and that policymakers have not adequately confronted. I explore these issues in greater depth in “The Next Big Crash,” a book I co-authored that examines how modern financial market structures put investors at serious risk during moments of systemic financial stress.

The Legal Structure That Decides Priority

Wall Street’s indirect holding system might be defensible if it merely replaced paper certificates with electronic records while preserving the investor’s core property rights. But that is not what happened. The deeper shift occurred in the law that governs these relationships—Article 8 of the Uniform Commercial Code (UCC)—which has been amended and adopted by every state legislature in the country.

In plain English, UCC Article 8 establishes that the securities credited to customers at a brokerage are generally not supposed to be treated as the brokerage firm’s property. That sounds comforting, until one reaches the key exception clauses in the statute, which clearly state that under certain conditions, a broker’s secured creditor gains priority over the assets of the broker’s customer.

This is not a fringe interpretation. It is explicitly stated in the law itself, which has been sharply criticized by leading securities law scholars. If a broker pledges its customers’ securities as collateral and their creditor gains legal “control,” that creditor stands ahead of the customers who bought the securities. Crucially, this applies even if brokers have acted improperly or illegally, as long as collusion with the creditor cannot be proven.

To most people, that should feel backward. If you pay for an asset, you should not lose it because your middleman used it—properly or improperly—to fund its own survival.

But under the modern regime, what many customers have is not a direct, registered ownership interest in a specific, identifiable security. Instead, they have a contractual claim defined by the intermediary system and the priority rules that put banks first during an economic crisis.

‘Customer Protection’ Is Not the Same as Ownership

Defenders of the current structure will point out that there are rules intended to protect customer assets. They are right. There are segregation requirements, reporting requirements, and oversight mechanisms. There is an entire framework that assumes customer property can be kept separate from a failing firm’s creditors.

The problem is that rules are not self-enforcing, especially in a crisis. And history shows that when financial firms face existential pressure, the temptation to treat customer property as a lifeline can become overwhelming.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers illustrates the danger. In the years leading up to its failure, Lehman routinely violated customer segregation requirements by pledging customer securities to JPMorgan Chase to secure its own borrowing. When Lehman collapsed in 2008, JPMorgan asserted secured claims over those assets, freezing large quantities of customer property inside the bankruptcy estate. Many customers did not receive their assets for nearly five years as secured creditors litigated priority over pledged customer assets.

Lehman was not an isolated case. In 2007, Sentinel Management Group commingled and pledged hundreds of millions of dollars in customer securities as collateral for a revolving credit line, triggering years of litigation over whether a bank’s secured claim could override investor rights. Most customers were not made whole for nearly a decade. And in 2011, MF Global filed false segregation reports and unlawfully tapped segregated customer accounts to meet margin calls, leaving tens of thousands of customers without access to funds they relied on for routine operations. Even when recoveries eventually occurred, the process took years.

These episodes differ in detail, but they share a theme: protections that investors assume to be absolute can fail in practice. And when they do, investors can be thrown into prolonged legal uncertainty. Even a “successful” recovery can be devastating when retirement savings, liquidity, or margin collateral are frozen for months or years.

Some readers may point to the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) as a safeguard. SIPC does provide limited insurance when a brokerage firm fails. But like the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for banks, it was designed to manage isolated insolvencies—not systemic financial crises. Its reserves total less than $5 billion, a minuscule number compared to the tens of trillions of dollars held at major brokerage firms. More importantly, SIPC cannot prevent customer assets from being frozen or subordinated while insolvency proceedings unfold.

The uncomfortable truth is that “customer protection” in an intermediary system is not the same as being the registered owner with clear property rights. It is a set of promises and procedures that depend on compliance, monitoring, solvency, and the willingness of institutions to follow the rules when doing so is more costly than breaking them.

None of this is an argument for widespread panic, nor a claim that every investor is doomed. It is a diagnosis of a real property-rights vulnerability embedded in the architecture of modern finance.

If policymakers want markets that are resilient in the next crisis, they should start by being honest about what most investors actually “own.” Clear disclosure, access to direct ownership for those who want it, and a reexamination of legal priority rules that place intermediaries ahead of customers are not radical demands. They are basic questions of property rights, investor protection, and trust. Financial systems run on confidence, and confidence cannot rest on assumptions that quietly collapse when stress arrives.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the author. They are meant for general informational purposes only and should not be construed or interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation. The Epoch Times does not provide investment, tax, legal, financial planning, estate planning, or any other personal finance advice. The Epoch Times holds no liability for the accuracy or timeliness of the information provided.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 15:30

Newsom Won't Cut Ties To Homeless Fraudster Firm

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics.com,

Borrowing from novelist James Hilton, who coined the word “Shangri-La” to describe a Tibetan utopia in a 1933 novel, Franklin Roosevelt gave that name to the peaceful retreat we know as Camp David.

For California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Democrats, Shangri-La hasn’t become synonymous with a place that connotes peace on earth. It stands for a hellish homeless housing nightmare, eye-popping fraud, and the ease and scale with which con-artists rip off taxpayers.

In October, federal agents arrested Cody Holmes, the 31-year-old former CFO of Shangri-La Industries, a downtown Los Angeles-based developer who was supposed to be providing housing for homeless people in Southern California. First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli for the Central District of California, a Trump appointee, charged him with mail fraud.

Holmes, who pleaded not guilty, is accused of embezzling more than $2 million in taxpayer funds slated for homeless housing construction to host extravagant parties; a $46,000-per-month Beverly Hills mansion; private jet travel; leases of exotic cars; high-end handbags totaling $128,000; a $35,000 diamond watch; and 20 VIP passes for the 2023 Coachella Music and Arts Festival.

Meanwhile, Shangri-La Industries executives showered Newsom and Los Angeles County Democrats with political donations as they were applying for some $100 million in state contracts that the CFO later allegedly looted to fund his and his ex-girlfriend’s lavish lifestyle.

Even after federal prosecutors exposed the massive fraud, Newsom and L.A. Democrats haven’t severed ties with the embattled developer and have kept political donations from the firm’s executives. Newsom has also allowed the construction firm to continue to tout his endorsement on its social media.

Powerful Friends

Holmes allegedly defrauded the California Department of Housing and Community Development by submitting fabricated bank accounts in its applications for state contracts to build homeless housing. Acting on behalf of Shangri-La, Holmes allegedly falsified $160 million in assets controlled by Shangri-La and its affiliates to demonstrate that the firm had liquid funds to contribute to the construction projects.

According to the government, most of those funds never existed. The FBI traced only an estimated $24,000 that the developer had on hand at the time of the applications for Newsom’s signature Homekey contracts, a program launched amid the COVID pandemic lockdowns that converted empty motels into homeless housing. Holmes is accused of providing false bank statements for Shangri-La Industries to acquire the more than $100 million in state grant money for seven Homekey projects, according to an affidavit filed with the complaint and other court documents.

Shangri-La Industries has historic roots to billionaire Steve Bing and Bill Clinton, whom the Bing-led company paid more than $2.5 million to serve as a strategic adviser. Bing died by suicide in 2020, more than a decade after founding the investment, entertainment, and philanthropic empire.

California housing authorities are also suing Shangri-La Industries for breaching contracts under Newsom’s signature Project Homekey homeless housing project in a likely futile attempt to recover the missing millions. Yet, no criminal action was taken against anyone involved until Essayli issued his indictment against Holmes last fall.

Shangri-La Industries CEO Andy Meyer, who also goes by Andy Abdul-Wahab, according to court documents, has blamed Holmes for the bank and mail fraud and filed a lawsuit against him. The suit accuses Holmes, his former intern, of embezzling company funds by moving the money to accounts and shell companies that he controlled while allegedly also transferring money to Madeline Witt, his then-girlfriend. Witt is named as a co-defendant in the suit.

Newsom, L.A. Dems Mum on Returning Shangri-La Donations

Newsom’s office did not respond to an inquiry into whether he planned to return any of the funds Shangri-La employees have donated to his campaigns over the last decade. A RealClearPolitics review of campaign donations found at least $18,000 from Abdul-Wahab to Newsom’s campaigns for governor and lieutenant governor.

Newsom’s office also did not say whether he stands by a quote endorsing Shangri-La Industries and its partner, Step Up On Second Street, which Shangri-La has used on its now-defunct website under the heading, “What Our Customers Are Saying,” and on its active Instagram account.

“In a matter of months, not years, Shangri-La and Step Up gave some of the most vulnerable Californians the dignity of a key, a lock, a door, a place to call home,” the Newsom quote states in reference to a homeless housing project in San Bernardino. California’s campaign finance database also shows a mysterious $30,000 donation from Shangrila Investment LLC in support of Newsom’s signature Proposition 1 homeless ballot initiative. The initiative, which barely passed with 50.2% of the vote in March 2024, approved a $6.4 billion bond for more state homelessness spending and attempts to address related mental health and addiction for the first time.

In the final days of the mail-in voting election, as the outcome hung in the balance, both sides, Newsom and those opposing the ballot measure, urged voters whose ballots may have been rejected to fix their signatures.

Yet, so far, Newsom’s “CARE court” project, attempting to address mental health and addiction, has reportedly fallen far short of expectations. Other controversial donations to the homeless ballot initiative include $100,000 from Edison International and affiliated entities, the parent company of SoCal Edison, whose equipment caused the Eaton fire that killed 19 people last year; and $250,000 from PG&E and affiliated entities, the Northern California utility that caused the 2018 Camp Fire, the deadliest fire in state history, responsible for 84 deaths.

It’s unclear whether this $30,000 donation from Shangrila Investment LLC is related to Shangri-La Industries or other affiliated entities that court documents connect to the embattled developer. Neither Newsom’s office nor Capitol Compliance, the D.C.-based entity that helps run Newsom’s ballot committee, returned repeated requests for comment.

Asked if the donation made by Shangrila Investment LLC is affiliated with the Shangri-La developer at the heart of the fraud scandal, Holmes’ high-powered attorney Michael Freedman, who has represented Harvey Weinstein and Bill Cosby, replied only: “No comment.”

State campaign-finance records show that Abdul-Wahab also showered donations on state and local officials, including $30,000 to the Los Angeles County Democratic Party in 2022, when the developer was trying to win the homeless contracts. The Los Angeles County Democratic Party did not respond to an inquiry about whether it planned to return the funds.

Other donations from Meyer Abdul-Wahab went to former Assemblywoman Wendy Carillo, who represented Glendale and parts of East Los Angeles and is the first former illegal immigrant to be elected to the state Assembly. Additional donations went to Assemblywoman Cecilia Aguiar Curry, who represents a west Sacramento district that includes areas of parts of Napa and is serving as majority leader of the Assembly; Sen. Sabrina Cervantes of Riverside and parts of San Bernardino County; Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin who represents the city of Thousand Oaks; Sen. John Laird of Santa Clara and Monterey; Assemblyman Alex Lee of Fremont, Milpitas and West San Jose; and Assemblywoman Buffy Wicks of the East Bay.

In December 2021, U.S. Rep. Robert Garcia, a Democrat and the former mayor of Long Beach, where Meyer Abdul-Wahab resides, returned two Shangri-La donations during Garcia’s run for lieutenant governor, according to Cal-Access, the state campaign donations database.

Lobbyists for Shangri-La Industries include Panorea Avdis, partner at Sacramento Advocates, a public affairs and lobbying firm, along with several other firm associates, according to a state lobbying database. Before becoming a lobbyist, Avdis was chief of staff to Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, and previously served a stint as a director of external affairs at California’s housing department during the administration of GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, as well as the state’s Business and Economic Development office under Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown. Sacramento Advocates did not return requests for comment about its relationship with Shangri-La Industries.

At least two of the Homekey motel conversion projects in Southern California have been renovated and are now fully occupied: a 98-unit former Good Nite Inn in Redlands (now called Step Up in Redlands) and a 76-unit former All-Star Lodge in San Bernardino (now Step Up in San Bernardino).

Shangri-La Stiffed Subcontractors

Subcontractors and suppliers to the San Bernardino and Redlands projects filed $2 million in liens for unpaid work and materials, and at least some contractors say they have yet to be paid and are growing increasingly doubtful that they ever will be. Shangri-La Industries allegedly illegally obtained more than $50 million in new loans for several Homekey properties across the state without notifying the state housing department.

Adolfo Gomringer Sr., who owns AG Flooring, told RCP that he has yet to receive $93,000 that Shangri-La owes him for metal framing, drywall, demolition, and flooring work his company performed for the San Bernardino motel conversion in 2023. Gomringer said he has written to Newsom, L.A. Mayor Karen Bass, and L.A. and San Bernardino County officials, asking for their help, but has not received a response.

“Unfortunately, I didn’t hear back from anybody, so I just gave up hope,” Gomringer told RCP this week. “Honestly, it’s just shocking that there was nothing in place to protect us—the contractors actually doing the work on these jobs.”

Gomringer said he doubts that Holmes is the only Shangri-La employee in on the fraud, adding that the extent of the deception may not be fully realized. He referred to a call with a bond company claiming to have received a wire confirmation from Shangri-La that his company had been paid in full, which Gomringer said is completely inaccurate.

“I said, ‘Please send me a picture of that wire, because I am the owner of the company, and I can tell you frankly, that’s not true,’” he said.

According to the FBI agent’s affidavit used in the criminal complaint against Holmes, the young CFO completely fabricated a Bank of America account statement showing $59 million that did not exist.

Richard Staropoli investigated bank fraud cases for years as a Secret Service agent, then went on to serve as chief information officer and head of risk for the international hedge fund Fortress Investment Group. Staropoli told RCP that the California housing department should have performed basic due diligence practices to verify the bank accounts Shangri-La claimed to have, and the exact amounts in them.

“Are you kidding me?” Staropoli said in reaction to the FBI’s investigative findings in the Holmes case. “Are you telling me that at this level of the amounts of money that’s involved here, nobody’s checking this? This just speaks to the incredibly poor practices of California’s housing authorities.”

In early January, Essayli warned that more arrests are coming after finding “massive” fraud in California’s homeless services.

In mid-January, police arrested Alexander Soofer, who allegedly used millions of taxpayer dollars slated to house and feed hundreds of homeless to purchase a $7 million mansion in Westwood, pay for private jet travel, lavish spending at luxury resorts across the United States, a vacation property in Greece, his children’s private school tuition, and a $125,000 Range Rover.

Soofer is also accused of feeding 600 homeless people—which his organization, Abundant Blessings, housed—Ramen noodles, canned beans, and breakfast bars instead of the three healthy meals a day the contract required.

“California is the poster child of rampant fraud, waste, and abuse of tax dollars,” Essayli said, referring to the more than $24 billion the state has spent on fraud without demonstrating any impact from the investment. “The state has facilitated the spending of billions of dollars to combat homelessness, with little to show for it and almost no oversight.”

“Thankfully, the federal government has begun auditing California’s spending, and today’s is just one example of how fraudsters have swindled millions of dollars from taxpayers,” he added. “This money should have gone to those in need, instead it lines the pockets of individuals subsidizing their lavish lifestyle.”

In a testy email exchange last week, Essayli labeled Newsom the “king of fraud” for failing to provide basic oversight measures to protect taxpayer funds and blasted him for claiming the homeless fraud isn’t his fault.

Newsom’s press office, responding to a conservative influencer blasting the governor over homeless fraud after Essayli’s indictments against Soofer, denied any culpability.

“TOTALLY FALSE to imply the Governor was responsible for this fraud! Fraud is unacceptable—and unlike Donald Trump, who pardons fraudsters, Newsom demands anyone who steals taxpayer dollars be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

“WRONG,” Essayli responded in an X post. “You and the California legislature facilitated this fraud by handing out billions in tax dollars to these nonprofits with zero vetting and zero state oversight.”

Billionaire Bing’s Ties to Shangri-La Industries

Shangri-La Industries—the firm ensnared in the homeless fraud scandal—originally was created by billionaire entertainment mogul Steve Bing, a Democratic Party mega-donor, film and music producer, and the grandson of Manhattan real estate developer Leo Bing.

At 18, Bing inherited a $600 million fortune from his father, then dropped out of Stanford University in his junior year to move to Hollywood and produce and invest in movies. Along the way, he also fathered British actress and model Elizabeth Hurley’s son Damian in 2002.

Bing gave at least $50 million to candidates and California ballot measures over two decades, including Newsom, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who is running for governor, Sen. Alex Padilla, as well as Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore, and Nancy Pelosi. He formed Shangri-La Entertainment, Shangri-La Music, and Shangri-La Construction, which later became Shangri-La Industries. Besides the $2.5 million Shangri-La Industries paid to Bill Clinton in 2009 and 2010, according to Forbes magazine, Bing also gave between $10 million and $25 million to the William J. Clinton Foundation in 2008.

Bing’s death is still shrouded in mystery. When the 55-year-old jumped to his death from the 27th floor of a luxury apartment building in Century City, he was nearly broke with only $300,000 in assets. Friends suggested he was depressed because of a lack of contact with people during the COVID lockdowns, but the true reason remains unknown.

Bing’s daughter, Kira Kerkorian, in a lawsuit filed against Abdul-Wahab, alleged that Bing sold Shangri-La Construction to him in 2017, but accused Bing of never paying the agreed-upon amount. The lawsuit, however, was dismissed without prejudice, meaning that a judge terminated it, but Kira Kerkorian could decide to amend it and refile.

So far, Kerkorian hasn’t refiled. She was essentially disowned and disinherited by two fathers. Her mother, former tennis pro Lisa Bonder, was married to casino and media mogul Kirk Kerkorian, who was 48 years her senior, for only 28 days in 1999. When Bonder became pregnant, she insisted Kerkorian was the father and secured a $100,000-per- month child support agreement and established a $7 million trust for Kira.

But private detective Anthony Pellicano swiped a piece of dental floss used by Bing, a former boyfriend of Bonder, proving through DNA testing that Bing was Kira’s father. Kira was left with $8.5 million when Kerkorian died in 2015 at age 98.

One day after Bing died, Shangri-La Construction’s Instagram account eulogized Bing in a post titled, “With Heavy Hearts We Remember: Steve Bing.”

“Endlessly generous and passionate about the people and causes he loved, he was truly a rolling stone—he belonged to nobody, but he gave a piece of himself to everyone and everything he crossed.” The post also promised that Shangri-La Industries would “never forget his passion for helping people,” and promised to “continue to advance this mission every day.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 15:05

Nvidia Could Delay New GPU Due To Deepening Memory Crunch

News flow around the memory crunch is accelerating by the week, and the casualty list is growing.

Just this morning, Qualcomm and Arm Holdings warned that shortages of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) could crimp smartphone production this year. Apple signaled earlier this week that it will prioritize higher-end iPhone models, while Nintendo shares slid as soaring HBM costs threaten to squeeze margins.

The alarm bells are getting louder after a new report from The Information, citing two sources, saying Nvidia won't release a new gaming GPU (RTX 60 series) this year due to a HBM supply crunch, forcing it to prioritize limited HBM for its far more profitable AI chips over gaming GPUs.

If confirmed, it would mark the first year in roughly three decades that Nvidia has not released a new consumer-grade gaming GPU.

Here's more color from The Information:

The delay will also push back the release of Nvidia's next-generation gaming GPU. Likely called the RTX 60 series, it was originally scheduled to begin mass production at the end of 2027, according to one of th people.

The existing line of gaming GPUs, the RTX 50, is based on Nvidia's current Blackwell GPUs, while the RTX 60 is based on the upcoming Rubin chips.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang publicly announced last month that mass production of Rubin AI chips had already started and that the company was on track to ship them to customers in the second half of this year.

. . . 

Nvidia is also slashing production of its current line of gaming chips—the GeForce RTX 50 GPUs—because of the memory shortage, one of the people said. Prices of Nvidia's latest gaming GPUs have already risen at retail stores and websites due to their scarcity over the past year.

"Demand for GeForce RTX GPUs is strong, and memory supply is constrained," a Nvidia spokesperson told the tech outlet, without confirming the delay. The person added that all GeForce products are in stock and shipping to customers.

Latest on the memory crunch:

• Memory Shortage Fears Spread, Raising Alarm At Qualcomm And Arm

• Nintendo Profit Misses As Soaring Memory Prices Could Become Major Headache

• Apple Prioritizes Premium iPhone Rollout As 'Great Memory Crunch' Tightens Global Supply

Makes sense:

• "Do It Now": Industry Insiders Urge Consumers To Front-Run PC, TV, Smartphone Purchases As 'Memory Crunch' Will Intensify

Professional subscribers can learn more about the memory industry on our new Marketdesk.ai portal​​​​.

We suspect the memory crunch is about to get a whole lot worse.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 14:40

New York Mayor Mamdani Pays Hospital Visit To Man Who Tried To Kill A Cop

Authored by Tim O'Brien via PJMedia.com,

While snow and ice continue to wreak havoc in New York, while the homeless continue to live in deadly cold conditions on the street without the city’s safety net of warm shelter when the weather gets below freezing, and as the mayor himself warns residents of a dire fiscal crisis ahead, Zohran Mamdani found time this week to visit a man in the hospital who tried to kill a police officer with a knife. 

Police were forced to shoot Jabez Chakraborty on Jan. 26 after the man’s family called 911, wanting an ambulance to take the 22-year-old for treatment over some form of mental health crisis.

Reportedly, the caller made no mention of the possibility that Chakraborty might have a weapon. 

When police arrived on the scene, and a family member let them into the house, Chakraborty charged the officer with a large knife in his hand.

Body camera footage shows that as he retreated out of the front door, the officer had to shoot the man to neutralize the threat. 

Mamdani just went to visit Jabez Chakraborty in the hospital today

Here is the bodycam of him charging NYPD with a knife, which resulted in an officer discharging his weapon to protect himself https://t.co/rBo7DZ4AYK

— Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) February 4, 2026

At last report, Chakraborty was on a ventilator in the hospital, where on Monday he received a personal visit from the mayor. 

A day later, the mayor was hosting an unrelated press conference, but he made the point that Chakraborty’s attempt to kill a police officer “underscores just how urgently we need a different and more effective mental health response system,” which involves the creation of a new Department of Community Safety. 

Mamdani promised this, among many other things, when he ran for mayor, saying that such a department would complement and bolster New York’s other mental health response services. Part of this involves – you guessed it – dispatching social workers in response to some calls instead of police. 

Watch that video again and imagine if the city official who entered that door was an unarmed social worker. What do you think would have happened? Do you worry that Chakraborty might have scratched himself with the knife as he stabbed the unsuspecting city employee, and perhaps his family members? 

The city’s mayor would seem to have more concern over an armed, disturbed individual than his city’s own employees and the individual’s family members. Reports are that New York is interviewing and hiring staff for the new community safety department. The mayor has not indicated how many people will be hired or exactly how the department will be structured. 

On Tuesday, reporters asked Mamdani how the city would respond to a situation like Chakraborty’s once his new social worker-centric policies are implemented. 

He had no response other than to say, “A lot of this is exactly the focus of the conversations that we’re having internally in developing out this Department of Community Safety.” How can he propose such a radical alternative to current procedures without having a more concrete idea of how these types of situations will be addressed? 

The reason becomes obvious when you look back at his campaign and the promises he made, and when you compare all of that to every real-world situation he now has to face as mayor. Before he took office, it was all theoretical, all academic. Everything seemed so simple, and his solutions so right. 

During the campaign, when these policing issues came up, Mamdani referred to his 17-page white paper on the topic. 

The paper made a case to improve coordination among city offices that seek to prevent “gun violence,” homelessness, and mental health crises. Apparently, Mamdani felt that instead of getting to the root of actual problems, adding a layer of bureaucracy was the key. Some of these other offices include: the Office of Gun Violence Prevention, the Office for the Prevention of Hate Crimes, and the Office of Community Mental Health. At last word, these offices will soon fall under the umbrella of the new Department of Community Safety. 

To be sure, New York already had a non-police response program. It’s called B-HEARD. That’s an acronym for “Behavioral Health Emergency Assistance Response Division.” 

While running for office, Mamdani often mentioned B-HEARD as something he wanted to build around. The division uses EMTs/paramedics and mental health professionals in calls where 911 operators have not detected violence or an imminent threat. Mamdani’s vision has all the bells and whistles, including alternatives to prison. 

If you’re wondering how much all of this legacy and new bureaucracy might cost, estimates are that the department’s budget may exceed $1 billion. All of that, and Mamdani still doesn’t have a good answer for what happens when a social worker gets called to a location where a mentally unstable person could pick up a knife or a gun and attack. 

A lot can happen between the time a caller reaches out to 911 and the mental health professional gets on scene. At the same time, given the chaos and stress that define these types of situations, it’s very plausible that the caller may not even think to mention the existence of a weapon when there is one. 

Police will tell you that you shouldn’t need to be told a suspect has a weapon to be on your guard for whatever may unfold. Quite often, mentally deranged people who could become violent start out by screaming at family or people in public or by behaving very erratically. 

In Mamdani’s utopian vision, New York will bank on prevention of violence in the form of outreach to vulnerable populations in the city, the creation of volunteer safety patrols, and the use of conflict mediation and “de-escalation” approaches. 

If Mamdani’s vision were a college thesis, I’m sure some Columbia professor would give him an A. But it’s not. He’s in the real world now, and he’s already proven that some of his solutions can involve the risk of death. That’s of no matter. The people of New York were forewarned by Mamdani himself. There are no surprises here. 

The only thing we don’t know is whether Mamdani brought flowers with him when he went to the hospital to visit a man who tried to kill a cop.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 14:20

Democrats Just Gave Away The Real Reason They're Fighting Immigration Enforcement

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJ Media,

Democrats have spent years insisting illegal immigrants do not vote, yet Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries just gave the whole game away.

In a letter to GOP leadership, they demanded a slate of “reforms” to immigration enforcement as the price for funding the Department of Homeland Security, including targeted enforcement, no masks, mandatory use of body cameras, and other demands, several of which I suspect are nonstarters.

NEW: Schumer and Jeffries lay out 10 demands for DHS reforms pic.twitter.com/bKfVg1Ctbb

— Max Cohen (@maxpcohen) February 5, 2026

I don’t see Democrats getting anywhere with these, but the big thing is that buried in that list is a rather revealing demand:

Protect Sensitive Locations - Prohibit funds from being used to conduct enforcement near sensitive locations, including medical facilities, schools, child-care facilities, churches, polling places, courts, etc.

Polling places?

They went out of their way to include polling places right alongside hospitals, courts, and churches. There is only one thing that happens at polling places that would matter to illegal immigrants, and it is not the bake sale.

Democrats have insisted for years that illegal immigrants cannot and do not vote, and that the whole issue is a right-wing myth. If that is true, then why is “polling places” even on their list of protected zones for immigration violators? No one accidentally adds “polling places” to a policy letter being negotiated at the leadership level. This is deliberate. It gives away what they are worried about... and what they are counting on.

“Democrats just admitted they think illegal aliens need to be protected at polling places. Why exactly would illegal aliens be at polling places? We MUST fully fund DHS AND pass the SAVE America Act,” Senator Katie Britt (R-Ala.) posted on X.

That is the obvious question Democrats do not want to answer. If illegal immigrants are not supposed to be anywhere near the ballot box, then immigration enforcement near polling sites ought to be a non-issue.

This comes as Republicans are pushing election reform through Congress with the SAVE Act. The SAVE Act is a straightforward concept: safeguard federal elections by ensuring only American citizens can cast ballots, and that an ID is required to vote.

Schumer’s response has been to smear the SAVE Act as “Jim Crow 2.0” and brand it “racist” and “dead on arrival.” That is the Democrats’ go-to play whenever Democrats feel threatened: slap a “Jim Crow” label on common-sense election rules and scare minorities into thinking Republicans are trying to stop them from voting.

The problem is that even minorities aren’t buying it. As PJ Media previously reported, polling has shown consistent and overwhelming support for Voter ID laws for years. That consensus cuts across both party and race, with huge majorities of Republicans, Democrats, whites, Latinos, and black Americans all agreeing that you should show a photo ID to vote.

Why are Democrats pushing so hard against common sense and trying to help illegal immigrants vote even though they’re not supposed to? Recent census projections show blue states are bleeding population while red states are gaining it, which will shift House seats and electoral votes after the 2030 reapportionment. As people flee high-tax, crime-ridden, Democrat-run states for freer red states, Democrats face shrinking power at the national level. That gives them every incentive to import a new population, shield it from enforcement, and eventually convert them into votes, one way or another.

That’s why Democrats have no qualms fighting so aggressively against overwhelmingly popular election reforms. For them, it’s a matter of survival.

Want to support fearless journalism that exposes the Left and tells the stories the media won’t? PJ Media delivers the truth and holds the powerful accountable. Become a VIP member today—your support fuels our mission and unlocks exclusive content, podcasts, an ad-free experience, and more.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 11:05

Job Openings Crater Most Since 2023 To Lowest In 5 Years As Payrolls Set For Negative Print

We warned earlier today that the US labor market was rolling over sharply again when we observed the surge in initial jobless claims and the near record January for job cuts (biggest since 2009). Moments ago the BLS confirmed that the US job market is indeed falling off a cliff, when the latest JOLTS report (job openings and labor turnover) showed that in December the number of US job openings crashed by 604K to 6.542 million from 7.146 million, the biggest one month drop since Oct 2023. Of course, to make the drop a bit more palatable, the DOL decided to dramatically revised the November number lower (of course), from 7.146 million to 6.928 million, which however would have made the November plunge even worse. So to keep the monthly changes on an apple to apple basis, we take the cumulative drop from the past 2 months and find that the past two months saw a massive 907k drop in job openings, the biggest since March 2023!

According to the BLS, the number of job openings decreased in professional and business services (-257,000), retail trade (-195,000), and finance and insurance (-120,000).

One curious observation: after tumbling to a 4 year low, the number of government job openings rose from 701K to 738K.

The collapse in job openings also means that the 4 year period of more job openings than unemployed is now a distant memory: in December, the number of job openings was almost one million (961K to be precise) lower than the number of unemployed workers.

As a result of the deteriorating job openings picture, the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers tumbled to 0.9x, the lowest since early 2021.

The small silver lining to today's otherwise terrible JOLTS print was that the number of hires and quits both rose modestly, the former up to 5.293 million from 5.121 million, while the latter rose from 3.204 million from 3,193 million.

But while hiring may have rebounded (which is meaningless if layoffs rise even more), another labor market indicator that hit today suggested that next week's delayed January payrolls report will be a complete bloodbath. Earlier this morning, Revelio Labs - which had become the go to alternative while the govt data was suspended during the shutdown - reported that in January payrolls plunged by 13,270, driven by goods producing jobs which dropped by 5.1K but mostly a plunge in govt jobs, which declined by 16.4K.

While this number uses a different methodology than the BLS, if we get anything even remotely close in next week's jobs report, not only will the US jobs recession be confirmed but the Fed will rush to cut rates as soon as March, well before Kevin Warsh can "shrink the Fed's balance sheet" as has become trendy, if completely false, to say these days. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 10:53

Trump Says Federal Law Enforcement Will Help Search For Savannah Guthrie's Mother

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said he spoke to Savannah Guthrie on Wednesday, reassuring her of federal help in the disappearance case of her mother Nancy Guthrie who is suspected to be kidnapped.

In a Truth Social post that evening, Trump said, “I spoke with Savannah Guthrie, and let her know that I am directing ALL Federal Law Enforcement to be at the family’s, and Local Law Enforcement’s, complete disposal, IMMEDIATELY. We are deploying all resources to get her mother home safely. The prayers of our Nation are with her and her family. GOD BLESS AND PROTECT NANCY!”

Savannah Guthrie is a co-host of NBC News’ “Today” show. Her mother, Nancy Guthrie, 84, was last seen around 9:30 p.m., Jan. 31, at her home in the Catalina Foothills, Arizona, and was reported missing on Feb. 1.

The case drew national attention with the president addressing the matter in Oval Office remarks on Feb. 3.

“I think it’s a terrible thing,” Trump said. He called Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance a “very unusual situation.”

The White House urged members of the public with information to contact authorities.

“The search for Savannah Guthrie’s mother, Nancy Guthrie, is ongoing, and authorities are requesting assistance from the public,” the White House wrote on social media.

“Our prayers are with the Guthrie family as we hope for Nancy’s safe return home,” the White House wrote.

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos told reporters at a press conference on Feb. 2 that the authorities “believe 100 percent right now she could not have walked away from that home,” adding that he believes she was abducted.

According to Nanos, Nancy Guthrie is believed to still be alive. In a media interview on Feb. 4, he said, “She’s present. She’s alive, and we want to save her.”

Nanos said that as of now, no suspect or person of interest has been identified.

The situation is deemed urgent as Guthrie requires daily medication to preserve her life.

Savannah Guthrie prayed for the safe recovery of her mother in a Feb. 2 Facebook post.

“We believe in prayer. we believe in voices raised in unison, in love, in hope. We believe in goodness. we believe in humanity. above all, we believe in Him,” Savannah Guthrie said.

“Thank you for lifting your prayers with ours for our beloved mom, our dearest Nancy, a woman of deep conviction, a good and faithful servant. Raise your prayers with us and believe with us that she will be lifted by them in this very moment,” she said.

Meanwhile, Savannah Guthrie posted a video message on Wednesday addressing anyone who might be holding her mother.

She said that the family was ready to talk and mentioned ransom notes that have been reported in the media.

“We need to know without a doubt that she is alive and that you have her. We want to hear from you and we are ready to listen. Please, reach out to us,” she said in the Instagram video message.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 10:40

A Quarrel In A Faraway Land...

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The immediate focus in markets today is on tech slumping again, rotating from JGBs, then gold, silver and other metals. Yet despite the scale of market moves -- around a trillion dollars of paper losses, as ‘Bill Gates stated: “The majority of AI companies will fail”-- few writing about it understand the sector. It is, to quote Chamberlain, "A quarrel in a faraway land between people of which we know nothing." That line echoes far more broadly and deeply.

US-brokered Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Abu Dhabi saw a "productive" first day yesterday. That’s as the EU agreed a €90bn loan for Ukraine, funded through joint debt, much of which is to buy arms. However, a UK minister noted long delays to rearmament because it’s “a bigger task than many people outside defense realize.” The FT says officials believe Russian spy spacecraft have intercepted unencrypted communications from Europe’s key satellites. It’s claimed China is funding 60% of Russia’s invasion and Moscow “can only maintain this war because China is essentially bankrolling it.” One report even says Russia is using neural chips to turn live pigeons into drones. In short, it’s not purely threats to Ukraine, or Russian GDP, or current weapons that Europe needs to pace itself against. Much, much more spending could be needed.

Tomorrow sees US-Iran talks held in Oman, despite a change of venue, Iran nearly backing out, and the US shooting down an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier. Markets are still hoping for ‘peace in our time’, but it takes no specialist knowledge to know that isn’t really true of the region. Indeed, there is still a strong local view that the talks are likely to fail, opening up a political path for a US and Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile plants, and perhaps the regime itself – which Iran pledges would mean a regional war.

Trump and Xi spoke ahead of his planned state visit in April. The US side stressed lots of deals to be done, including on soybeans; China stated Taiwan is the “most important” issue; in the background, as Bloomberg puts it, “‘Lone Wolf’ Takaichi Wants to Build a Bold, Outspoken Japan.”

For those expecting détente, note China just warned Panama of “heavy prices” to pay after Hong Kong’s CK Hutchinson saw its contract to run ports at either end of the Panama Canal quashed. That was Donroe Doctrine lawfare taking de facto control of a critical global trade chokepoint. Elsewhere in LatAm, Costa Rica just saw a pro-Trump president elected.

"THIS IS DONROE" https://t.co/Zp2mXdVvDW pic.twitter.com/mUvKO3y7qK

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 30, 2026

In geoeconomics, the European Parliament unfroze the EU-US trade deal, but a vote is not likely until March, as Von der Leyen tries to seal a security and trade deal with Australia. Yet Oz matches the UK in finding rearmament hard, is a long way from Europe, and part of AUKUS - recall the French submarine debacle? Moreover, an FTA won’t float many boats, and even with one, Europe doesn’t jump the queue for resources, smelt them, or teleport them home.

The key thing to focus on is control of resources, upstream and midstream. Even those who don’t understand AI grasp it needs A LOT of cheap electricity, copper, and rare earths. In that regard, the White House is proposing a critical minerals trade zone to 50 countries, including the EU, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), to curb China’s dominance - as Beijing may stockpile copper after restricting exports of silver. The US just pledged hundreds of billions of capital into the mining sector, with its Exim Bank leading the way; is seeing state stakes in such firms; and now physical deals - the DRC is to ship copper to Saudi Arabia and the UAE through a US-backed partnership with Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.

The proposed bloc would share a price floor for key inputs as well as a common tariff vs. China. As Vice President Vance put it, “We want members to form a trading bloc among allies and partners, one that guarantees American access to American industrial might while also expanding production across the entire zone.” In other words, shift industry back to the US – but also expand industry across the bloc rather than buying cheap downstream goods from China.

Understand that this means global decoupling, starting with upstream and midstream; locks countries into a US system vs China; and the only alternatives are China; to build one’s own mines and smelters, if so blessed - as Glencore just cancelled investment in a Canadian copper smelter due to regulatory uncertainty; or to gain the hard power to get scarce supplies outside both the rival systems.

We are seeing a realpolitik 19th-century model emerge to power the technology of the 21st - as the Hong Kong press note, ‘The AI race: US and China defence sectors emerge as key battlegrounds.’ Indeed, Nvidia’s AI chip sales to China have just been stalled by a US security review: KYC measures to prevent chips heading to the PLA.

Yet even as von der Leyen announced that the EU will work with the US on the critical minerals front, with all it implies, new friction stems from France and Spain. The former just raided the Paris office of X; the latter proposed a social media ban for under-16s and legislation to make the CEOs of tech platforms criminally liable for failing to remove illegal or hateful content, and for using algorithmic amplification. Telegram founder Durov stated the Spanish proposals would make it a “surveillance state”, and Elon Musk labelled Spanish PM Sanchez a “tyrant”; Spain retorted that Musk poses a “threat to democracy.”

This year’s Munich Security Conference (February 13-15) is likely to see a stronger US attack on EU regulation of US social media platforms that last year’s, already a heart attack for EU officials who had no idea what was looming in Greenland. Could the US tell Europe (and the UK and Australia, with turmoil in their government and opposition, respectively) that they either accept glasnost, i.e., freedom of speech no matter how offensive, alongside a US reverse perestroika of a state-backed upstream and midstream (then, slowly, downstream) decoupling from China, as part of a US Warsaw Pact military protection… or they can go their own way on all of them?

Meanwhile, this all means economic models assuming a free flow of ‘aggregate supply’ vs. demand are wrong. Metals join energy --where the Hong Kong press also notes, as we had predicted, that ‘China’s cheap oil flows under strain as US ramps up Iran, Venezuela pressure’-- in being the pivot variables that macro forecasts revolve around. Central banks need to take that into account as much as analysts and politicians.

In that regard, even though the top Republican on the Senate Banking committee says that Fed Chair Powell hasn’t “committed a crime,” so may stay around longer (and potentially, and unusually, even after his stint as Chair ends), temporary Fed governor Miran just resigned from his concurrent White House role, which might imply he expects to extend his stay at the FOMC. If so, it would be alongside Fed Chair Warsh, who also doesn’t think economic models do anything useful, and neither does much of how we do central banking now. Presumably, like any good head of Gosbank, he fully grasps what the US grand macro strategy is re: upstream, midstream, and downstream production, and how inflation increasingly rests on the back of "A quarrel in a faraway land between people of which we know nothing."

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 10:00

The post Thoughts on the Delayed SCOTUS Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs appeared first on CEPR.

Nancy Mace Demands Subpoena For Bill Gates As Epstein Noose Tightens Around Globalist Elite

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Congresswoman Nancy Mace is turning up the heat on Bill Gates, pushing for a subpoena that could force the tech tycoon to spill the beans on his shady ties to Jeffrey Epstein—exposing how deep the rot runs in the elite circles that have long evaded justice.

With the DOJ dropping three million pages of Epstein docs packed with stomach-turning allegations, Mace isn’t buying Gates’ denials, demanding he testify before Congress to set the record straight or face the consequences.

Mace wasted no time after seeing Melinda Gates’ eye-opening comments about her ex-husband and Epstein during an NPR interview.

Last night, I watched Melinda Gates interview. I immediately asked the chairman of oversight, James Comer, to subpoena, Bill Gates.

I have questions for Bill Gates about Epstein.

— Rep. Nancy Mace (@RepNancyMace) February 4, 2026

The Rep. announced a push to subpoena Bill Gates in a social media blast, revealing she has asked House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-KY) to haul the Microsoft founder in “immediately.”

We're calling for Bill Gates to testify under oath on his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein in front of the Oversight Committee.

3 million pages of Epstein documents were just released by the DOJ and the allegations are SICK. If these allegations are false, Bill Gates should… pic.twitter.com/qW6kzV2KDn

— Rep. Nancy Mace (@RepNancyMace) February 4, 2026

“We’re calling for Bill Gates to testify under oath on his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein in front of the Oversight Committee,” Mace declared.

She added: “[Three] million pages of Epstein documents were just released by the DOJ and the allegations are SICK. If these allegations are false, Bill Gates should have no problem saying so under oath before Congress.”

“Nobody is above the law. Not billionaires. Not the powerful. Nobody,” Mace added.

The latest Epstein files, unleashed by the Department of Justice, include a 2013 email from the predator himself alleging Gates caught an STD after “sex with Russians girls” and schemed to slip antibiotics to Melinda without her knowing. Another 2017 email hints at Epstein blackmailing Gates over an alleged affair with Russian bridge player Mila Antonova.

Melinda’s response on NPR’s Wild Card podcast lit the fuse for Mace. Melinda said Gates and other Epstein cronies “need to answer to those things.”

“I think we’re having a reckoning as a society,” she told host Rachel Martin. “No girl should ever be put in the situation that they were put in by Epstein and whatever was going on with all of the various people around him.”

Reflecting on the victims, Melinda added: “It’s beyond heartbreaking. I remember being those ages those girls were; I remember my daughters being those ages.”

The Gates’ 2021 divorce announcement cited: “[W]e no longer believe we can grow together as a couple in this next phase of our lives.” But Melinda tied the Epstein mess directly to her pain: “So, for me, it’s personally hard whenever those details come up because it brings back memories of some very, very painful times in my marriage, but I have moved on from that.”

She pointed the finger squarely: “whatever questions” that remain on the Epstein debacle “are for those people, and even my ex-husband. They need to answer to those things, not me. And I am so happy to be away from all the muck.”

Gates’ camp fired back through a spokesperson: “These claims are absolutely absurd and completely false.” They claimed: “The only thing these documents demonstrate is Epstein’s frustration that he did not have an ongoing relationship with Gates and the lengths he would go to entrap and defame.”

This push comes amid a broader reckoning, with the DOJ’s massive file dump shining a light on elite entanglements. Fresh scrutiny hits figures like Elon Musk and Howard Lutnick over their Epstein links, proving no one is immune.

Gates’ own squirming defense on Australia’s 9News—claiming he was “only at dinners” and never met women—got shredded on The View, with hosts like Joy Behar mocking: “I know nothing. I did nothing.” Even that leftist stronghold is turning, signaling Gates’ PR fortress is crumbling.

The Clintons have also finally caved under pressure, agreeing to testify in the Epstein probe after dodging subpoenas for months. Facing contempt charges, Bill and Hillary bent the knee, with depositions set for late February— a win for transparency against deep state stonewalling. This cascade signals that the elite pedophile network’s protectors are finally cracking.

As Mace leads the charge, it’s clear the Epstein saga is far from over. Globalists like Gates, long shielded by their billions and media allies, now face real oversight. The Clintons’ testimony could unleash more bombshells, exposing how power corridors enabled this horror.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 09:25

Iran's IRGC Seizes Two 'Fuel-Smuggling' Vessels In Gulf Amid US Showdown

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy says it has seized two vessels near Farsi Island allegedly carrying large quantities of smuggled fuel, the country's Students' News Agency (ISNA) reported Thursday - at a moment the nation's military has its "finger on the trigger" amid threats from the Trump White House and Israel.

More than one million liters of diesel were discovered aboard the ships, according to the IRGC Navy's public relations office, and the seized 15 foreign crew members have been handed over to judicial authorities.

Illustrative: prior fuel smuggling-related IRGC boarding, PressTV

ISNA reported that the vessels were part of a fuel-smuggling network that had been operating for months and were intercepted following "monitoring, intelligence work, and IRGC naval operations."

While the interdiction against the alleged fuel smuggling vessels is significant, Thursday's incident is somewhat more common and less alarming that if it had been a international oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, for example.

Still, Tehran is using it to send a warning to any external power acting menacingly in its regional waters. Ezzatollah Zarghami, a former minister and ex-head of Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB, later on Thursday issued a blunt warning, declaring that "the Strait of Hormuz will be the place of massacre and hell."

"I am sure that the Strait of Hormuz will be the place of massacre and hell for the US," Zarghami said. "Iran will show that the Strait of Hormuz has historically belonged to Iran. The only thing the Americans can think of is playing with their vessels and moving them from one place to another."

With seizures at sea now paired with explicit threats, tensions around one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints - which the IRGC has frequently threatened it could block off altogether - continue to climb.

This especially as Tehran is warning that it is ready to strike back hard if attacked by the United States, even if this means all-out war. It says its military forces and ballistic missiles are on high alert, and also that Tel Aviv will be again targeted in the event of US aggression.

Israel meanwhile is said to be lobbying Washington for regime change in Tehran, but the White House reportedly isn't ready for such a drastic option - also amid reports the Pentagon would need more time to put assets in place.

There is an IRGC Navy base on the tiny, strategically located island, which has been used to launch IRGC speedboats to at times intercept foreign vessels.

Source: ABC News

In a Wednesday interview President Trump said Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei should be "very worried" at the growing Pentagon presence in the region.

"I would say he should be very worried, yeah. He should be," Trump said in reaction to an Iran question by Tom Llamas on NBC Nightly News. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 09:10

Gold's Going To $10,000: Martin Armstrong Warns "Europe Is Desperate For War"

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong warned in late December to be ready for the “Perfect Storm for Debt, Economy, War, Gold & Silver.” 

The rain and thunder started at the beginning of February, and the storm is just beginning.  Armstrong says, “This is where the volatility starts kicking in..."

"  I think Europe is so desperate for war.  My concern with the Trump Administration is I would not step a foot in there. 

Europe needs war.  You already had the finance ministers of France and Germany say that they may need IMF bailouts.  This is why they want war. 

It’s a distraction.  Without war, people are going to figure out what the hell is going on. 

My pension fund is gone.  Everything is defaulting.  What’s going to happen?  They are basically going to be storming the parliament with pitch forks.”

Where are you going to see volatility?  Armstrong says, “The volatility is in everything..."

"  You just saw the metals come down.  

They will probably consolidate before they go back up when people realize that Europe is going to go to war. 

What will happen?  The dollar will go up.  Metals will go up.  It will be like WWI and WWII. 

The US became the financial capital of the world because Europe blew its brains out twice. 

Now, they think the third time is going to be the charm...

If there is war in Europe, it will be maybe in the summer.  It does not look good.”

One bright spot was the Ukraine/Russia peace plan Armstrong put together at the request of President Trump.  Armstrong says, “I did get a letter from President Trump . . . thanking me for writing it.  So, it was sanctioned by Trump, and that’s pretty much everything he is doing except for NATO..."

"At the meeting, they told me you are correct.  We know we are not going to be at war with Russia.” 

Let’s hope the US stays out of a coming Russia/Europe war.  If we do, you can thank Martin Armstrong who put his peace plan together for Trump for free.

Armstrong also says the illegal alien invasion created by Democrats is the way they are trying to stay in power. 

Don’t be fooled by the close Dem wins in recent special elections. 

Armstrong’s “Socrates” computer has seen no advantage for either side for the midterms this year–yet. 

Armstrong sees the dollar staying strong and says:

“You can’t park money in Canada, Mexico, Japan, or Europe...

Where are you going to put serious money? 

The United States is the only place—sorry.  This is why the United States is what it is.  Big money needs a place to park.”

On gold and silver, Armstrong is decidedly bullish on both metals and says, “This is not the major high..."

"  We have too much craziness on the horizon, from sovereign debt default to war.  You are just getting a pullback and consolidation...

I am looking at the $165 to $200 per ounce area for silver.  For gold, I am looking at resistance at the $8,500 per ounce level and, after that, $10,000 per ounce . . . in the next few years.”

There is more in the 63-minute interview.”

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong to talk about the volatility that started this month, with a lot more to come in 2026 for 2.3.26.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 08:50

Initial Jobless Claims Jump As YTD Job Cuts Hit Highest Since 2009, AI Blamed

Initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week to 231k (212k exp) from 209k prior. While a significant rise, it remains - for now - within the low range of the last four years...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims also rose modestly, but less than expected. 1.844mm Americans are currently filing for jobless benefits (below the 1.85 million expected, but up from the 1.819 million the prior week).

Notably this is still well below the 1.9 million Maginot Line that has become a switching level for fear of weakening labor market.

The 'Deep TriState' (government) was responsible for a large chunk of the rise in continuing claims...

However, earlier in the day, global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that U.S.-based employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, an increase of 118% from the 49,795 cuts announced in the same month last year.

It is up 205% from the 35,553 job cuts announced in December.

“Generally, we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total for January. It means most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signaling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

January’s total is the highest for the month since 2009, when 241,749 job cuts were announced. It is the highest monthly total since October 2025, when 153,074 cuts were recorded.

In January, Contract Loss led all reasons for job cuts, with 30,784 announced during the month.

Market and Economic Conditions followed with 28,392 cuts.

Restructuring was cited for 20,044 job cuts, while store, unit, or department Closings accounted for 12,738 planned layoffs.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited for 7,624 job cuts in January, 7% of total cuts for the month. Companies referenced AI for 54,836 announced layoff plans in 2025.

Since 2023, when this reason was first tracked, AI has been cited in 79,449 job cut announcements, 3% of all layoff plans announced in that period.

“It’s difficult to say how big an impact AI is having on layoffs specifically. We know leaders are talking about AI, many companies want to implement it in operations, and the market appears to be rewarding companies that mention it,” said Challenger.

Finally, and perhaps putting the nail in the coffin, Challenger reports that last month, employers announced 5,306 hiring plans, the lowest total for the month since Challenger began tracking hiring plans in 2009.

Are we transitioning from 'no hire, no fire' to 'no hire, some fire' labor market?

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 08:42

EUR Flat As ECB Leaves Rates Unch; Cable Drops On BoE's 'Dovish Hold'

In a surprise to traders, The Bank of England came within a vote of cutting interest rates and predicted inflation will fall below its target, a closer-than-expected decision that revived hopes of a move next month.

As Bloomberg reports, Governor Bailey was once again the swing voter in a 5-4 decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75%, choosing to hold policy having cut at the last meeting in December.

Bailey said in a statement that “there should be scope for some further reduction in bank rate this year.”

In the accompanying monetary policy report, we also got a bit more insight into how the Bank of England sees the measures announced at November’s budget impacting the economy.

The BOE delivered its verdict on Labour’s budget and growth: good in the short-run, bad in the long-run. 

Measures announced in November will boost real GDP in the next three years. Beyond that, tax rises will take centre stage and weigh on the economy.

When asked if there is any scenario in which the BOE would need to hike rates, Bailey said that this was not under discussion at their meeting.

This surprisingly dovish hold pushed cable lower...

And gilt yields lower from overnight highs...

The commentary and closely split decision also pushed rate-cut odds higher for later in 2026.

Bailey says the rate-cut curve is in a “reasonable place” in a question about where the neutral rate lies, which the BOE made clear in its statement is highly uncertain.

Following the BoE's 'Dovish hold', the ECB kept rates unchanged - as fully expected and reiterated its previous comments that it will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.

In particular, the Governing Council's interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

ECB reiterates the Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

On growth, the ECB says the economy “remains resilient in a challenging global environment” and lists a number of factors underpinning growth:

• low unemployment

• solid private sector balance sheets

• the gradual rollout of public spending on defense and infrastructure

• the supportive effects of the past interest rate cuts

But it also repeats that “the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.”

EURUSD shrugged at the nothingburger from Lagarde...

In conclusion, while both central banks held rates unchanged (as expected), The ECB's commentary was far more tame than the dovish BoE leaving traders with little incentive to push front-end Bunds around.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 08:27

Futures, Bitcoin, Gold All Tumble As Momentum Liquidations Accelerate

Stock futures slide, hitting session lows just after 7am ET, after a two-day drop that saw an ETF tracking software stocks sink to its lowest since April. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures have slumped to session lows, down 0.7% following a sharp slide just after 7am ET; Nasdaq 100 futures are also sharply lower, dropping 0.8% after the index wiped out its gains for the year over the prior two sessions. Alphabet is lower in after it said capex will reach as much as $185 billion this year, double what it was in 2025 and far more than the $120 billion analysts had predicted. Pre-market, Mag7 are all lower but GOOG’s capex guidance is boosting some semis who will benefit from the extra spending. This morning, the tech selloff was joined by a resumption in the precious metal liquidation as silver plunged -15% during China hours, and gold slid 3% following yesterday’s Momentum unwind (which continues today). The USD reversed all gains and traded near session lows as 10Y yields also dropped to session lows just over 4.25%. Today’s macro focus is on the jobs including claims and Challenger job cuts. We get Amazon earnings after the close. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower: Alphabet (GOOGL) falls 4% after the Google parent forecast full year 2026 capital expenditures of up to $185 billion, far exceeding consensus estimates. Analysts said the jump in spending may concern some investors, while others said it underscored the company’s confidence with AI (Nvidia drops 0.1% alongside AI infrastructure peers; Tesla -1%, Amazon -1%, Meta -1%, Apple -0.2%, Microsoft -1.8%)

• Align Technology (ALGN) climbs 11% after the medical devices firm reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that surpassed Wall Street’s estimates.
• ARM Holdings (ARM) falls 7% after the company’s sales forecast disappointed investors, who are concerned about a slowdown in the smartphone market.
• Carrier Global (CARR) falls 6% after the HVAC company forecast full-year sales below what analysts expected. The company said it expects market conditions from the second half of 2025 to continue this year in its Americas residential business, which has struggled with weak demand.
• Elf Beauty (ELF) jumps 4% after the cosmetics company boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate. Analysts highlight strong performance in its newly-acquired Rhode, Hailey Bieber’s beauty and skincare brand.
• Estée Lauder Cos. (EL) tumbles 12% after its outlook boost failed to reassure some investors about the pace of the cosmetics conglomerate’s turnaround.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) drops 17% after the energy storage technology company’s fiscal first quarter revenue fell shy of analyst estimates.
• Hershey Co. (HSY) rises 3% after offering a better-than-expected 2026 outlook as higher prices and new products bolster the candymaker’s performance.
• KKR & Co. (KKR) slips 2% after agreeing to acquire sports and secondaries investor Arctos Partners in a $1.4 billion deal, in a major push into a booming industry.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) falls 11% after the chipmaker’s revenue forecast was weaker than expected. The company said its “near-term handsets outlook is impacted by industry-wide memory supply constraints.”
• Symbotic (SYM) is up 5% after the technology firm forecast total revenue for the second quarter that topped the average analyst estimate.

In other company news, HSBC is said to be preparing to hand some bankers little or zero bonuses in a move to get some underperforming staff to depart. Shell profits slumped in the fourth quarter, hit by lower crude prices and a weak oil-trading performance.

Traders are weighing whether the flight from tech has been excessive, driven by concerns over disruption from artificial intelligence, lofty valuations and vast capital outlays. Sectors that stand to gain from faster economic growth have been the main beneficiaries of the shift. As for the biggest losers, the answer is easy: software, which the market has convinced itself will not exist thanks to AI agents. 

“Three quarters of software stocks are in oversold territory, and the momentum trade that has been the way to play tech and software last year is under severe pressure,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities. “I expect reason to come back to the table and a rebound shortly,

AI remains top of mind, with one Wedbush trader saying that “Alphabet’s mic drop capex highlights haves versus have nots in AI capabilities, commitment and balance sheet.” There are only a few companies that have the ability to spend more on AI and see ROI across their entire ecosystem, said Joel Kulina, managing director for TMT trading at Wedbush Securities. Alphabet, Meta and Anthropic are on his list.

The impacts of AI are rippling elsewhere. Shares of Qualcomm and Arm are sharply lower on concerns that a shortage of memory chips will limit phone production. Traders are looking for the floor for AI losers, with Jefferies’ trading desk predicting the group is due for a “vicious rally” but Morgan Stanley's Quants warning that the selling is just starting.

Futures for the Russell 2000 small cap index continued to outperform those for the S&P 500. In another sign that appetite for diversification remained strong, the rolling four-week average inflows into consumer staple stocks have reached a record, according to Bank of America analysts. These inflows hit the highest level on an absolute basis and by percentage of market capitalization since the bank started tracking client fund flow data in 2008, Jill Carey Hall, an equity and quant strategist, said in a Wednesday note. 

“We don’t see it as a big plummet in tech stocks, we see it more as the rest catching up in terms of earnings,” Shanti Kelemen, co-chief investment officer at 7IM, told Bloomberg TV.

Overall positioning in equities remains elevated, despite a broad unwind in crowded trades, leaving stocks vulnerable to downside moves in the near term, according to JPMorgan’s cross-asset indicator. Positioning changes across many assets were largely modest this past week with the exception of a severe reduction in long positions in silver. And speaking of silver, a sudden 17% plunge wiped out a two day recovery, as the commodity struggled to find a floor following a historic rout. Gold traded near $4,900 an ounce. Bitcoin slumped below $70,000, a level last seen in 2024 amid wider cross-asset stress.

This morning, the Bank of England came within a vote of cutting interest rates as policymakers split 5-4 in favor of holding at 3.75%. The pound extended losses after the decision, having been under pressure as a fresh round of political turbulence weighed on UK assets. Shorter-end gilts jumped as traders ramped up bets on a rate cut in March, sending two-year yields eight basis points lower to 3.62%. 

In geopolitics, China is asking state firms to halt talks over new projects in Panama. The Trump administration hosted a critical minerals summit with 55 countries to reduce dependence on China, with the US pitching price floors and US private equity investment.

Out of the 254 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far in the earnings season, 79% have managed to beat analyst forecasts, while 17% have missed. ConocoPhillips, Bristol-Myers Squibb and KKR are among companies expected to report before the market open. ConocoPhillips heads into 4Q against a softer crude backdrop, with trimmed volumes and leaner capital spending. Earnings from Amazon and Microchip follow later in the day: as usual, AI spending plans will be the main focus.

Europe's Stoxx 600 fell 0.4% to 615.69. Trading in Europe signaled that the rotation away from tech into economically sensitive stocks was slowing. The Stoxx 600 headed for its worst day in more than two weeks as the auto sector led losses, while chemical and retails stocks also underperformed. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• BNP Paribas shares rise as much as 4.7% after the French lender reported net income for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate and raised some targets, with KBW analyst saying earnings are solid and JPMorgan noting that new targets imply upside.
• Pandora rises as much as 8.2%, driven by a plunge in the spot silver price and after reporting its full-year 2025 results.
• Rational shares rise as much as 16% after the German manufacturer of catering appliances impressed analysts with its fourth quarter profits and cost discipline.
• Danske Bank shares rise as much as 4.5% to a record high as the Danish lender’s quarterly profits and revenues beat expectations.
• Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 9.5% after the German maker of tanks and ammunition hosted a pre-close call with analysts which implied downgrades to consensus numbers for 2026.
• Siemens Healthineers shares drop as much as 2.7% after the German medical equipment maker reported sales for the first quarter that missed expectations, hurt by its diagnostics business, while earnings were better than expected.
• Shell slips as much as 2.6% after delivering fourth-quarter earnings below analyst expectations, with Morgan Stanley saying that estimates had already come down ahead of the report.
• Maersk falls as much as 8.2% after the Danish shipping group provided an outlook for 2026 in which it expects earnings to fall as the reopening of the Red Sea shipping route leads to lower rates.
• Volvo Car shares fall as much as 24%, their biggest drop on record, after the automaker reported weaker-than-expected fourth quarter earnings, dragged down by poor demand and pressure on prices.
• Saab shares fall as much as 4.6% after full-year results as Morgan Stanley says a midterm guidance raise only implies limited upgrades to consensus.
• Vestas shares fall as much as 7% after the Danish wind company forecast revenue for 2026 of €20 billion to €22 billion. Analysts at RBC Capital and JPMorgan blame a weaker services segment for dragging revenue.

In fx, the dollar rose 0.2%, hitting the highest level in two weeks amid the selloff in precious metals. The pound tumbled after the Bank of England came within a vote of cutting interest rates as policymakers split 5-4 in favor of holding at 3.75%; the currency was under pressure as a fresh round of political turbulence weighed on UK assets. Shorter-end gilts jumped as traders ramped up bets on a rate cut in March, sending two-year yields eight basis points lower to 3.62%.

In rates, treasury yields fell as US companies announced the largest number of job cuts for any January since 2009, according to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. The 10-year rate slipped two basis points to 4.52%. The European Central Bank is expected to stand pat on rates later on Thursday. The euro was little changed.

In commodities, oil prices decline for the first time in three days after Iran confirmed it would hold negotiations with the US, easing tensions in the region. Spot silver is down over 10% while Bitcoin falls almost 4% below $70,000. 

Challenger job cuts for January are due at 7:30 a.m. ET, followed by JOLTS job data for December at 10 a.m. Fed’s Bostic is scheduled to speak at an event at 10:50 a.m.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 -0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%
• DAX -0.5%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.27%
• VIX +0.9 points at 19.54
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1194.43
• euro -0.2% at $1.1783
• WTI crude -1.5% at $64.19/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Warsh believes that the AI boom is the “most productivity enhancing wave of our lifetimes – past, present and future,” leaving the Fed space to cut rates without stoking inflation. FT
• Republican Senator Hawley is circulating a bill around Congress that would ensure the costs of data centre's energy use is not passed onto consumers: Axios 
• President Trump commented that Fed is in theory an independent body, adds looking at tariff rebate checks very seriously, but hasn't committed to tariff rebate checks yet, while he discussed expanding immigration operations to five cities.
• December’s delayed JOLTS report is expected to show a modest rebound in job openings after recent declines, but slow hiring, cautious worker churn and weak quits suggest the labor market remains subdued. BBG
• Most Chinese provinces are targeting lower economic growth this year, in what many economists believe is a signal Beijing will set a historically low range of 4.5-5% for its official goal in 2026. FT
• A landslide win for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) at Sunday's election may be the best outcome for bonds and the yen, even as Takaichi's spending pledges have repeatedly rocked markets. Analysts say an overwhelming LDP victory may in the end be positive for bonds, as it would eliminate the need for Takaichi to negotiate with opposition parties, who are touting even deeper tax cuts and broader fiscal spending. RTRS
• Japan’s 30-year bonds gained after an auction of that tenor drew stronger demand, easing immediate concerns about longer-maturity debt just days from a closely watched election. The yield on 30-year bonds fell as much as seven basis points to 3.565% after the bid-to-cover ratio at the Ministry of Finance’s sale rose from last month’s auction. BBG
• German factory orders unexpectedly rose at the fastest pace in two years, supporting expectations of a recovery in the key manufacturing sector. Factory orders for December come in very strong at +7.8% M/M (vs. the Street -2.2%). FT
• UK political turmoil weighed on sterling and gilts as fresh doubts emerged over PM Keir Starmer’s grip on power. The gap between two-year and 10-year gilt yields steepened to the widest since 2018, while sterling was the worst-performing currency among peers. BBG
• Lisa Cook said the Fed must maintain its credibility by returning inflation to target in the near future. BBG
• Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Trump to send more weapons for his military, according to an interview with France 2. Kyiv also said meetings between Ukraine, the US and Russia in Abu Dhabi were “meaningful and productive.” BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• India's Foreign Ministry said they are looking to explore commercial merits of any crude supply, including from Venezuela.
• India's Trade Ministry Officials said that India will need to import USD 300bln annual worth of goods and the US will be one of the key suppliers of energy, aircraft and chips.
• Indian Trade Minister said we will announce the first tranche of a trade deal agreed with the US.
• China's Foreign Ministry said we oppose any country forming small groups to disrupt international economic and trade order.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the continued tech selling stateside and flip-flopping regarding US-Iran talks, while commodities were pressured overnight with silver prices dropping by a double-digit percentage. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in mining and resources stocks after underlying commodities prices took a hit, but with the losses in the index stemmed by resilience in financials and consumer stocks. Nikkei 225 saw early indecision but eventually slipped below the 54,000 level alongside the downbeat mood in the region. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with notable weakness in miners, property names and insurers, while an increased liquidity effort by the PBoC and reports of an 'excellent' call between Trump and Xi failed to spur risk appetite.

Top Asian News

• Chinese provinces set lower growth targets for 2026, according to FT.
• China is said to pause Panama deals after CK Hutchinson's (1 HK) port operations were nullified.

European equities (STOXX 600 -0.6%) are broadly lower, though the AEX is mildly firmer, boosted by strength in ASML (+1.1%). The chip giant has been boosted after Google noted it would boost AI spending. European sectors hold a negative bias. Basic Resources underperforms given the pressure in the metals complex, whilst Shell (-2%, Q4 metrics light) weighs on the Energy sector. Other key movers include Volvo Car (-22%) after poor results and a dire outlook.

Top European News

• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) Q4 (USD) EBITDA 1.8bln (exp. 1.84bln), Revenue 13.3bln (exp. 12.9bln).
• Shell (SHEL LN) Q4 (USD): Adj. Profit 3.26bln (exp. 3.51bln), EPS 0.57 (exp. 0.63), Adj. EBITDA 12.79bln (prev. 14.77bln Y/Y), announces USD 3.5bln share buyback programme.

FX

• DXY is kept afloat as it continues to claw back losses seen towards the end of January. That being said, the upside is limited following mixed data releases stateside and with plenty of focus on geopolitics amid reports that US-Iran talks scheduled for Friday were off, and on again. DXY has topped resistance seen around the 97.70-97.75 area to reach a current high of 97.83, still some way off the 23rd Jan high at 98.481.
• GBP/USD is among the laggards heading into the BoE, but likely more on political factors at the moment, with UK PM Starmer's premiership coming under scrutiny for his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as the US ambassador despite links to Epstein. Back to the BoE, the Bank Rate is expected to be maintained at 3.75%, with some mixed views on the vote split. GBP/USD resides towards the bottom end of a 1.3576-1.3664 range.
• EUR/USD resides in a narrow 1.1783-1.1809 range ahead of the ECB announcement and presser. The ECB is expected to keep its rates on hold, a view held by the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Data developments play in favour of keeping rates steady; inflation dipped below the Bank’s target in January, but largely due to base effects. Focus this meeting will be on any commentary surrounding the stronger EUR, trade/geopolitical uncertainty and higher gas prices.
• USD/JPY continues rising amid the firmer USD, with the pair back above 157.00, with yen weakness persisting throughout the week ahead of the snap elections on Sunday. Elsewhere, Antipodeans are softer with AUD the G10 laggard amid headwinds from the subdued risk appetite and selling pressure in commodities.

Central Banks

• Fed's Cook (voter) said she will continue to carry out duties at the Fed and she looks forward to getting to know Warsh. said:Hopes that goods inflation will dissipate quickly, and once they do, should be back on the disinflation path.
• Fed's Cook (voter) said she is focused on inflation risks and noted that when considering the proper stance of monetary policy, she sees risks to both sides of the dual mandate. said:. Progress on inflation has stalled, while such a plateau is frustrating after seeing significant disinflation in the preceding few years. It is essential we maintain credibility by returning to a disinflationary path.
• Federal Reserve finalizes big bank stress test criteria, votes to keep current capital buffer; Bowman said freezing bank capital levels allows Fed to correct any "deficiencies" in stress test models.
• Westpac's Ellis said can't rule out the RBA raising interest rates for a second consecutive time in March, according to Bloomberg.
• China Securities Daily reported that analysts now expect PBoC RRR 'cuts' in Q2.

Fixed Income

• USTs are currently firmer by a couple of ticks and trade within a narrow 111-18+ to 111-24 range. Not much driving things for the benchmark this morning, but the focus has been on geopolitics. On Wednesday, it was reported that the US-Iran talks were cancelled, but are now back on and set to happen on Friday. Back to the US, the BLS provided an updated data schedule following the recent partial shutdown. JOLTS is set to be released today; NFP on Feb 11 and CPI on Feb 13. That aside, Jobless Claims is due today, with traders looking to see if the labour market remains in its recent “low hiring – low firing” environment.
• Bunds trade steady and in a narrow 127.88-128.07 range. Really not much driving things for the benchmark this morning aside from EZ Construction PMIs and Retail sales, which had a limited impact on price action. Ahead, the ECB is set to keep its deposit rate at 2.00% and is likely to reiterate that the Bank is in a good place. Focus will be on the recent strength of the EUR and any comments related to potentially undershooting inflation.
• Gilts are underperforming this morning, currently lower by around 40 ticks. Initially gapped lower by around 19 ticks, and then extended lower to make a trough of 90.13. The underperformance in Gilts today can be attributed to the increased pressure that PM Starmer is facing for his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as the US ambassador, despite knowing about his links to Epstein. As it stands, several MPs are calling for Starmer to resign whilst others are calling for the sacking of Chief of Staff McSweeney; MP Turner said if he does not sack him, then his own back will be “up against the wall… soon” – nonetheless, the did suggest that there is still support for the PM adding that MPs do not want him to go. As it stands, Polymarket odds of Starmer to be out the door by June 30th have risen to 47% (vs 23% yesterday).

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks continued to trade with a lack of clear direction. The pressure seen at the start of the week (following plans of US-Iran talks) was completely reversed in Wednesday's session over reports that the talks have been cancelled due to Tehran's demands to change the location and talk format. Late in Wednesday's session, Iran's Foreign Minister reconfirmed that talks are back on in Oman for Friday. Prices dropped at the end of the US session. As the European session got underway, benchmarks reversed overnight losses, with Brent returning above USD 68.50/bbl. Today is the expiration day of the New START Treaty. This outcome was expected amid a lack of effort from both sides to renew the agreement.
• Spot gold ended Wednesday's session below the USD 5,000/oz handle but attempted to regain above the level at the start of the APAC session, but failed to do so. The yellow metal fell to a low of USD 4,790/oz, weighed on by the plunge in silver prices, before slightly paring back losses as European trade gets underway.
• Spot silver wiped out the entirety of the two-day recovery the metal attempted to stage as trade at the Shanghai Metals Exchange got underway. The metal kissed USD 90/oz before slipping to a trough of USD 73.55/oz, with losses seen as much as 16%. Dip-buyers took advantage of the lower prices, with silver prices currently trading around USD 80/oz.
• China gold consumption reportedly fell by 3.6% to 950 tons in 2025 and total gold production rose 3.35% Y/Y to 552 tons.
• 3M LME Copper continued the selloff seen throughout the US session, with the red metal dipping below USD 13k/t to a trough of USD 12.86k/t. This comes following continued worries that AI will become a bigger factor within business models. The tech sector has been weighed on in recent sessions, as in turn, dragged copper prices lower

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US Envoy Witkoff said that discussion between US, Ukraine and Russia were productive but "significant work remains"; talks will continue, with additional progress anticipated in the coming weeks; Ukraine and Russia agreed to exchange 314 prisoners.
• Russia's Kremlin spokesperson confirms the New START Treaty ends today.
• Russian Envoy Dmitriev said Russia-US meetings in Abu Dhabi are positive; progress on a peace deal despite pressure from the EU and UK; active work ongoing to restore Russia-US relations.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli security assessments note Houthis may attack Israel if Washington launches a strike against Iran, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Palestinian media reported Israeli artillery shelling targeting the Al-Bureij camp in the central Gaza Strip.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jan 31 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 212k, prior 209k
• 8:30 am: United States Jan 24 Continuing Claims, est. 1850k, prior 1827k
• 10:00 am: United States Dec JOLTS Job Openings, est. 7250k, prior 7146k
• 10:50 am: United States Fed’s Bostic Speaks with Dean of Clark Atlanta University

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Paris as the global tour continues. There's plenty to talk about as 2026 continues to develop in a fascinating way and Tuesday’s software sell-off broadened into a wider tech rout yesterday, as concerns about AI disruption pushed the NASDAQ (-1.51%) and the Mag 7 (-1.75%) to further declines, which in turn meant the S&P 500 (-0.51%) fell back for a second day running. However, it wasn’t all bad news, as the ongoing rotation out of tech meant the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.88%) closed at a record high, as did Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.03%). So there’s a pretty divergent narrative at the minute, whereby tech stocks are being squeezed sharply, but a lot of broader indices are still holding up for the most part. If that's not enough excitement for you, Silver has fallen -14% overnight and Alphabet has stunned the world with a capex spending plan of as much as $185bn this year, 55% more than expected. With tech in a current state of flux it's not clear whether that's a good or a bad thing. Alphabet has been the brightest star in the tech space in the last 6 months so this is a big story for markets.

I explored the tech story in my chart of the day yesterday (link here), looking at various stocks and how far they were beneath their 52-week high. It shows how recent months have seen a shift from the “every tech stock is a winner” mindset to a more brutal landscape of winners and losers. There are lots of losers but note that Alphabet has added $1.7tn market cap over the last 6 months (adding over 70% of its value), offsetting a lot of other losses and helping the S&P 500 to still be only -1.37% beneath its all-time high.

Last night Alphabet's results delivered a solid revenue beat, with Google Cloud revenue growing 48% to $17.7bn in Q4 (vs $16.2bn expected). However, this was accompanied by a surge in the company’s CAPEX plan to $175-185bn in 2026, effectively doubling its 2025 spend and well above the average analyst estimate of $120bn. Alphabet’s shares saw some sizeable volatility in after-hours trading (falling -7% at one point) but were little changed in the end after falling by -1.96% in the regular session. This morning, S&P 500 (+0.03%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.14%) futures have been fluctuating between gains and losses.

Yesterday’s sell-off was led by a fall in AMD (-17.31%), which was the second-worst performer in the S&P 500 after the company’s latest outlook disappointed investors. So that marked its worst daily performance since 2017. That weighed on chipmakers, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor index down -4.36% including a -3.41% retreat for Nvidia, and the news fed into the wider narrative of tech weakness in recent days. Moreover, we saw the impact in other asset classes too, as Bitcoin (-4.61%) fell back to its lowest level since November 2024, at $72,627.

Despite the headline losses, there were an impressive 363 advancers in the S&P 500, which was actually the most in two weeks. Energy stocks (+2.25%) led the gains as Brent crude rose +3.16% amid renewed concern over US-Iran escalation. Oil spiked after Axios reported that plans for nuclear talks with Iran were at risk of collapse and as President Trump said that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei “should be very worried", though it pared back some of the rise on news that Friday’s talks were still set to go ahead with Brent down -2.16% to $67.96/bbl overnight as I type.

Prior to that, other newsflow yesterday leant on the more positive side for markets, including the news that Presidents Trump and Xi had another telephone conversation. According to a post from President Trump, they discussed various topics, and he said China had committed to purchasing 25mn tonnes of soybeans for next season. So that meant soybean futures (+2.49%) posted their biggest jump since November, and it added to hopes that the trade truce between the two sides would remain in place.

Meanwhile, the US data yesterday continued to paint a broadly positive picture. The ISM services print came in at 53.8 (vs. 53.5 expected), which is its highest level since late-2024. However, some of the details were a bit more mixed, as the subcomponents for new orders (53.1 vs 56.5 expected) and employment (50.3 vs 51.7 expected) missed expectations. Moreover, the prices paid component ticked back up to 66.6 (vs. 65.0 expected), and that’s been a strong leading indicator for US inflation, which added to concern on that front. Meanwhile, the ADP’s report of private payrolls also came out weaker than expected in January at 22k (vs. 45k expected), with a slight downward revision to prior months. Normally that would be followed by the jobs report tomorrow, but given the partial government shutdown, the BLS confirmed yesterday that it was being postponed to Wednesday next week.

Lastly in the US, we had the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, which came out unchanged in line with expectations.  Treasury yields were mixed in response, with the 2yr yield falling -1.6bps amid the risk-off mood but 10yr (+1.0bps to 4.28%) and 30yr (+2.3bps to 4.92%) yields continuing to rise. Indeed, that brought the 2s10s slope up to 71.6bps, its steepest since January 2022, before the Fed started its post-Covid hiking cycle. Overnight, 10yr USTs are -1.0bps lower trading at 4.26% as we go to print.

Over in Europe, attention will be all on central banks today, as both the ECB and BoE are announcing their latest decisions. The ECB is widely expected to keep its deposit rate on hold at 2%, and our European economists think that it’ll continue to emphasise two-sided risks to growth and inflation. However, the risk is that the ECB sounds more dovish than before, given heightened geopolitical uncertainty and the recent appreciation in the euro. You can see their full preview here. Meanwhile for the BoE, our UK economist also expects no change in Bank Rate (3.75%), with a 7-2 vote tally to keep policy on hold (see his preview here). Indeed it's worth keeping a closer eye on the UK with PM Starmer under considerable domestic pressure given the handling of the Peter Mandelson story. 10yr Gilts were up +2.9bps yesterday bucking the international trend as concerns grew that he could be replaced. So one to watch. 

Asian equity markets are lower this morning with the KOSPI (-3.98%) standing out as the largest underperformer, having surged to record highs in the previous two sessions, with major index constituents Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both falling by over -5.0%. The index is still up over +22% in 2026 so far. Chinese stocks are also lagging behind, as evidenced by the Hang Seng (-0.68%), the CSI (-0.52%), and the Shanghai Composite (-0.59%), all of which are trading significantly lower. In other markets, the Nikkei (-0.85%) is also trading lower, retreating from the record highs it reached earlier this week.

Ahead of today’s ECB decision, yesterday we received the Euro Area flash CPI print for January, with headline inflation in line with expectations at +1.7%, marking its lowest level since 2021. Core CPI was still higher at +2.2%, but a bit below expectations for a +2.3% print. So that added to expectations the ECB might still cut this year, and yields on 10yr bunds (-3.1bps), OATs (-1.9bps) and BTPs (-2.9bps) all moved lower. Moreover, the 30yr German yield also fell -2.5bps to 3.52%, down from its post-2011 high the previous day. Meanwhile for equities, things were modestly positive, with record highs for the STOXX 600 (+0.03%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.85%), although the German DAX (-0.72%) struggled amidst a sharp fall in industrial stocks.

Looking at the day ahead, in addition to the ECB and BoE decisions, we’ll hear the Fed’s Bostic speak, BoC Governor Macklem speak, and get the BoE’s DMP survey. In terms of data, we’ll get the US initial jobless claims, UK January new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany December factory orders, January construction PMI, France December industrial production, Italy December retail sales, Eurozone December retail sales. Finally, earnings include Amazon, Shell, BBVA and Sony.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/05/2026 - 08:15