Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased 0.04% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in September. This is the sixth consecutive with a small MoM SA decline.

On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.0% in September, down from up 1.3% YoY in August. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, and previously bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. The YoY change in September is a new cycle low. ...

As of September, 19 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in New Mexico (-3.8%), Arizona (-3.6%), Florida (-2.8%), and Texas (-2.6%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 182 of the 387 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 6 of the 9 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida.

Florida has the largest number of CBSAs on the list and Texas has the 2nd most.

There is much more in the article!

Jamaica's Catastrophe Bond Poised For Big Payout Within Weeks After Hurricane Melissa's Insane Strength

Hurricane Melissa was the most powerful storm to make landfall in Jamaica in over 170 years, ripping through the Caribbean island's western region with 185 mph winds and leaving widespread destruction to infrastructure, towns, resorts, and farmland. The storm's central pressure is likely to have fallen below the threshold that would trigger a $150 million catastrophe bond designed to offset weather-related losses through the capital markets.

According to CNBC, the government of Jamaica's $150 million cat bond was structured by insurance broker Aon using the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development's "capital at risk" program and could be triggered as soon as next month.

For the island nation's government to receive funds, the storm's central pressure must be less than 900 millibars upon landfall. Early indications from the National Hurricane Center show the Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph winds met that threshold in several regions in the western part of the island. 

Source: Bloomberg

Key details about $150 million cat bond:

• The cat bond, structured by Aon and effective through 2027, provides parametric coverage, meaning payouts are based on storm intensity metrics rather than assessed damages.

• Triggering paypout requires the storm's central pressure must be <900 millibars upon landfall. Early National Hurricane Center data confirm Melissa met this threshold in multiple regions, now pending verification by an independent agent which could take weeks. 

• If triggered, funds could reach Jamaica within about one month, far faster than traditional insurance settlements, which often take several months.

Jamaica is the first Caribbean and small-island nation to sponsor a cat bond, according to Aon. 

"While the final numbers are still being verified, the early signs suggest the transaction is doing what it was designed to do: getting critical funds to the country quickly after a major disaster," Chris Lefferdink, Aon's head of insurance-linked securities for North America, told CNBC in a statement. 

The question of whether the $150 million cat bond will cover all the damage remains in question. New satellite data from Bloomberg shows extensive damage. 

Source: Bloomberg

Damage report so far:

• Montego Bay, Black River, and surrounding parishes (Saint James, Westmoreland, Saint Elizabeth) suffered the heaviest damage, with around 40% of buildings and roads destroyed.

• Power outages persist for about 72% of customers, while many communities remain isolated due to blocked roads and debris.

• At least 19 people were killed, and economic losses are estimated at $8 billion, about one-third of Jamaica's GDP, according to Enki Research.

Satellite imagery showing power outages across Jamaica. Top taken before Melissa. Bottom taken after. Represents lights you normally would see. https://t.co/Hk3pbO84Yf pic.twitter.com/s9NDDyLJ47

— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) October 31, 2025

Jamaica's use of a cat bond and its likely trigger event in the coming weeks could spark significant interest among other Caribbean nations for next year's Atlantic hurricane season. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 10:05

Chicago PMI Beats But Remains In 'Contraction' For Second Straught Year

There's good news and bad news in today's macro data (what scarce data there is).

MNI's Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) printed a better than expected 43.8 (42.3 exp), up from the prior 40.6...

Source: Bloomberg

There's a little more good news as seven of the underlying components rose vs last month:

• Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Inventories fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

The bad news is, as the chart above shows (normalized for the 50 cut off between expansion and contraction), this was the 23rd straight month below 50 (contraction) and the 37th month of contraction in the last 38 months.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 09:57

New York Declares Emergency Over Looming Pause In Food Stamps

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Thursday declared a state of emergency due to the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) program being suspended on Nov. 1 due to the government shutdown and a lack of funding.

People shop for food at a store that accepts food stamps in New York City in a file photograph. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

The decision means that $65 million in state funds will be allocated for emergency food assistance to provide for 40 million meals statewide, her office said in a statement. Around 3 million people in the state receive SNAP benefits, known as food stamps.

In a statement, the Democratic governor said that the loss of SNAP funds is “an unprecedented public health crisis” and will harm farmers, grocers, and other stores across the state.

“Today, I’m declaring a state of emergency and am committing additional state funds for emergency food assistance to ensure New Yorkers don’t go hungry,” Hochul added in her statement.

The $65 million in state funding will include $40 million “in new funding for the Hunger Prevention and Nutrition Assistance Program, which provides emergency food relief and nutrition services to food-insecure populations,” said her office.

The emergency order also directs the Empire State Service Corps and the State University of New York Corps, which are both state-funded public service work program for college students, to assist in SNAP registrations and other efforts.

“The Empire State Service Corps will allow current members to expand their paid hours, enabling them to provide greater support at food pantries statewide,” the statement from her office said. “In addition, new short-term crisis response positions will be created to assist food pantries and food banks facing staffing shortages.

SNAP’s looming lapse in funding comes as the shutdown has lasted nearly a month, coming after members of Congress did not come to an agreement on how to fund the government.

Democrats have said that any measure to reopen the government should include what they say are protections for health care, including an extension of health care subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year. Republicans say that talks on health care should come after the government is reopened.

Meanwhile, both Democrats and Republicans, as well as the Trump administration, have traded blame over the lapse in SNAP funding.

Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) warned that food stamps are set to run dry and accused Democrats of obstructing the reopening of the government. Hochul and other Democrats have blamed the Trump administration and Republicans over the shutdown and SNAP funding lapse.

Other states have issued emergency orders over SNAP deadline. Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, said on Oct. 27 that his administration will provide $3 million in emergency funding to a nonprofit to residents who are expected to lose access to SNAP.

The governor of Delaware, Matt Meyer, also declared an emergency earlier this week that he said will allow the state to redirect funds to food assistance during the shutdown. Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee made a similar declaration on Oct. 28, and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin declared one on Oct. 23.

At the same time, 25 states have filed a lawsuit against the federal government to keep SNAP’s funding going past the Nov. 1 deadline. U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani told lawyers on Thursday in a hearing that the government can’t afford to cover the program, and that there’s a process to follow rather than simply suspending all benefits.

“The steps involve finding an equitable way of reducing benefits,” said Talwani in the hearing.

The Trump administration has argued it wasn’t allowed to use a contingency fund with about $5 billion in it for the program, while a USDA plan from before the shutdown said that money would be tapped to keep SNAP running. Democratic states have argued that not only could that contingency money be used, it must be. They also said a separate fund with around $23 billion could be tapped.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 09:25



 

This week, I speak with Jon Hilsenrath of Serpa Pinto Advisory. They discuss Jon’s 26-year career at the Wall Street Journal as a reporter, earning him the title of “Fed Whisperer.” He worked out of Hong Kong, N.Y.C., and D.C. He was part of the Pulitzer Prize-winning team for on-scene coverage of 9/11.  He is the author of “Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval.”

He explains what the significance of the”Fourth Seat” is — a power grab to control a majority of the Board of Governors of the allegedly independent Federal Reserve. We also discuss his belief the U.S. is undergoing a post-industrial economic revolution.

A list of his favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Brandon Zick, CIO of at Ceres Partners, where he is responsible for all investments, including Ceres Partners flagship farmland fund and Ceres Food & Agriculture private equity strategies. He serves on the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Advisory Council and Small Business, Agriculture & Labor sub-council. Ceres was just purchased by Wisdom Tree Investing.

 

 

Favorite Books

 

 

Authored Books

 

 

 

The post MiB: Jon Hilsenrath, Serpa Pinto Advisory on the Fed appeared first on The Big Picture.

Coinbase CEO's Bizarre Final Words On Q3 Call Just Paid Off A Lucky Few

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Coinbase boss Brian Armstrong shook up two prediction markets in the final seconds of Thursday’s third-quarter earnings call by dropping a list of crypto buzzwords that Kalshi and Polymarket users bet would be mentioned in the call, resolving all markets to a “yes.” 

Several Kalshi and Polymarket users were ecstatic that their bets paid off in the final seconds. In contrast, others were understandably rattled to hear that a prediction market could be so easily upended.  

“I was a little distracted because I was tracking the predictions market about what Coinbase will say in their next earnings call, and I just want to add here, the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3, make sure we get those in before the end of the call,” said Armstrong. 

The “What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call” markets from Kalshi and Polymarket saw $80,242 and $3,912 worth of bets placed.

That included 24 punters on Polymarket, where fortunately, no one lost more than $12 on a single bet. 

Armstrong later on X said it happened “spontaneously when someone on our team dropped a [prediction markets] link in the chat.”

lol this was fun - happened spontaneously when someone on our team dropped a link in the chat https://t.co/tQiV3B9jUj

— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) October 31, 2025

Armstrong seemed to please more punters than not

Almost every punter in the comments section was pleased with Armstrong’s last-minute decision to list the crypto buzzwords not mentioned earlier.

“HAHAHAH THE GOAT BRIAN,” Polymarket user TheMasterMind said, while Kalshi users Redbullfool and Chungboy thanked Armstrong for the “gift.”

Mention words in Kalshi’s “What will Coinbase say during their next earnings call” market. Source: Kalshi 

While prediction markets are powerful tools for gauging expectations, they rely on the trust that insiders won’t won’t exploit their knowledge for personal gain.

Actions like this have previously raised suspicions of insider trading and market manipulation.

Coinbase performed well in Q3

Although the earnings call had an unusual conclusion, Coinbase delivered another profitable quarter, with $432.6 million in net income and $1.9 billion in revenue, representing a 55% increase from the same quarter in the previous year.

Coinbase also increased its Bitcoin holdings by 2,772 BTC to 14,458 BTC — putting it back in the top 10 largest corporate Bitcoin holding companies, BitcoinTreasuries.NET data shows.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 08:55

Futures Rebound Lifted By Strong Amazon, Apple Earnings

US equity futures rebound from the Thursday drop, led by Mag 7. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.8% higher and Nasdaq futures gain 1.2%, on pace for sixth and seventh straight monthly gains respectively, with all Mag 7 names higher premarket, led by AMZN (+12.7%) and AAPL (+1.9%) after their robust earnings release (AWS sales growth of 19.7%, best since 2022 and AAPL’s revenue guidance) yesterday after-close. Europe's Stoxx 600 fell for a fourth day, putting the gauge on track for its longest losing streak since July; in Japan, the tech-heavy Nikkei 225 closed up and notched its best month since 1990. Bond yields are flat, the USD is higher. Commodities are mostly lower; copper fell -2.4%. Today's calendar slate includes October MNI Chicago PMI at 9:45am (several minutes earlier for subscribers); US government data continue to be postponed by shutdown that began Oct. 1.  Fed speaker slate includes Dallas Fed President Logan (9:30am) and Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (12pm). Both CVX and XOM reporting earnings this morning.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Amazon.com (AMZN) jumps 12% after the company’s cloud unit posted the strongest growth rate in almost three years, reassuring investors who were concerned that the largest seller of rented computing power was losing ground to rivals. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is up 2% after the company predicted a major sales surge during the holiday season after releasing new iPhones, helping assure investors that its flagship product remains a growth engine (Nvidia (NVDA) +2%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.2%, Meta Platforms (META) +1.4%, Tesla (TSLA) +1.2%, Microsoft (MSFT) +0.4%)

• Brighthouse Financial (BHF) soars 22% after the Financial Times reports that Aquarian Holdings is in advanced talks to take the US life insurer private.
• Charter Communications (CHTR) falls 5% after posting third-quarter results.
• Cloudflare (NET) rises 8% after the software company forecast revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Coinbase (COIN) advances 4% after the largest US crypto exchanged reported third-quarter revenue that exceeded estimates following an uptick in trading as token prices climbed to record highs.
• Dexcom (DXCM) sinks 12% after the glucose-monitor company cut its adjusted gross margin forecast for the full year.
• Floor & Decor (FND) shares are up 7% after the home products retailer reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Illumina (ILMN) gain 6% after the gene-sequencing company boosted its adjusted profit and operating margin for the full year. Analysts note the better-than-expected results for the third quarter should help ease investor concerns.
• Netflix Inc. (NFLX) gained more than 2% in premarket trading. The company approved a 10-for-1 stock split to make its share price more accessible for employees who participate in the company’s stock option program. Separately, Reuters reported the company is exploring a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming businesses.
• Pony.ai (PONY) is up 4% after the autonomous vehicle technology company said it’s been granted Shenzhen’s first citywide permit for fully driverless commercial robotaxi operations.
• Reddit (RDDT) gains 10% after the social-media company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is above the analyst consensus.
• Roku (ROKU) shares are down 4% after the streaming-video platform company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook. While analysts are broadly positive, they said the results aren’t enough to meet high expectations.
• Western Digital (WDC) rises 9% as the computer-storage company reported better-than-expected 1Q results and its current quarter forecast came in largely ahead of estimates.

In corporate news, Exxon Mobil outperformed Wall Street expectations for a sixth consecutive quarter after beginning operations at its fourth oil-production project in Guyana. Chevron beat earnings estimates as profits from the $53 billion Hess Corp. acquisition were included in the results for the first time, boosting oil production and cash flow. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang still hopes to sell chips from the company’s Blackwell lineup to customers in China, though he has no current plans to do so, he told reporters Friday. Millennium Management is raising $5 billion in a new fund to invest in private market opportunities.

US stock gains offered investors a respite from Thursday’s bruising session, amid lingering doubts over whether heavy AI spending will pay off. The S&P 500’s advance has increasingly relied on a group of tech megacaps - recent record highs were hit on record negative breadth - with warnings over lofty valuations following a blistering rally.

“Volatility has become a feature rather than a bug — day-to-day swings now regularly move major stocks by hundreds of billions of dollars,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “The feedback loop of investor sentiment, speculative positioning, and rapid news-driven reactions amplify these moves.”

On Friday, futures rose as Amazon jumped 13% in premarket trading, a move set to add about $300 billion to its market value after reporting the fastest cloud-unit growth in nearly three years. Apple also climbed on a revenue beat and upbeat holiday forecast. Nvidia meanwhile, unveiled new partnerships with South Korea’s biggest firms, extending a global push to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure. Friday's market gains will seal the index’s longest monthly winning streak since August 2021, capping a rally that has withstood global trade tensions and geopolitical risks.

Earnings season remains top of mind with more than 60% of S&P 500 companies having reported to date, and a further 150 expected today and next week. Contrast of earnings receptions to AI spending has diverged within big tech, as investors seek quantification of how investments are benefiting related businesses.  Earnings have also broadly topped forecasts, with about 80% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating expectations.

According to BofA's Michael Hartnett, global equities drew $17.2 billion in inflows in the week to Oct. 29. Hartnett added that AI’s leadership remains firmly in place. Market breadth remains a concern for traders, and divergence notable between US and European equities. Michael Burry, the man who made his name shorting the US housing market, sent what appears to be a cryptic warning to retail investors about market exuberance. Equity performance in 2025 has been characterized by extreme concentration of volatility episodes, according to Barclays strategists.

“The risks are mainly flows. They have been the main driver, much more than EPS growth,” said Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi. “If flows begin to halt on risky assets, then there will be a genuine selloff. But it’s like a black swan, you never know when it’s coming.”

On the trade front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the US to return to the negotiating table with China in a year. That came after Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a tariff truce, roll back export controls and reduce other trade barriers. Xi also warned against “breaking supply chains” in his first public remarks after meeting with Trump. “A comprehensive deal still looks far away and while trade tensions have eased for the time being, they have the potential to resurface,” said Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist at Jefferies International.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 fell for a fourth day, putting the gauge on track for its longest losing streak since July. Telecoms, insurance and construction stocks are dragging. Treasuries and European bonds relatively steady, with small outperformance at the short-end in gilts. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Puig shares rose as much as 9.8% with trading volume almost 10 times the 20-day average after the Spanish group reported better-than-expected 3Q sales and upgraded its guidance for the last three months of the year
• Fuchs shares gain as much as 12%, the most since March 2020, after the chemicals company reported a stronger-than-expected Ebit as North and South American markets improved from previous softness
• Danske Bank gains as much as 2.8%, the most in a month, after the Danish lender reported solid third-quarter numbers, with analysts flagging strong core revenues and a slight beat to net interest income (NII)
• Interpump shares rise as much as 6.8%. Equita analysts upgraded the Italian hydraulics and pumps manufacturer as they expect the stock to outperform thanks to improving margins and organic trends and see M&A opportunities
• Kongsberg shares gain as much as 4.9% after a slew of analysts upgraded the stock following the Norwegian company’s results-driven declines on Thursday, leaving the firm with no sell or equivalent recommendations
• UMG shares rise as much as 1.8% after the world’s largest record label delivered a beat on both revenue and adjusted Ebitda in the third quarter, with growth in the important subscription unit ahead of expectations
• Erste shares rise as much as 4.1% as the Austrian lender raised its net interest income growth and CET1 capital ratio guidance. The bank sees its deal to buy Santander’s Polish unit on track to close around the year-end
• Viridien shares rose as much as 26%, the biggest jump since 2020, after the French group reported operating profits well above expectations
• Scor shares fall as much as 8.2%, the most since July, as analysts grew concerned about the reinsurance company’s solvency ratio and real estate amortization after it reported third-quarter results
• Spie shares fall as much as 5.9% to the lowest since May as the France-based engineering services company’s third-quarter organic growth came up short
• AXA shares dropped as much as 2.5% after the French insurer reported nine-month results. Jefferies highlighted the Solvency II ratio as the biggest news from the results, while Citi saw the update as uneventful
• Saint-Gobain falls as much as 3.2%, to the lowest since mid-April, after reporting third-quarter like-for-like sales that missed consensus estimates, and expected to trigger small downgrades to consensus numbers
• Acerinox falls as much as 3.4% after the stainless steelmaker said fourth-quarter Ebitda is expected to be lower than in the third quarter. Analysts see potential double-digit downgrades to full-year consensus
• Elis shares fall as much as 1.2% after the French cleaning services group reported growth in Central Europe that missed estimates due to softness in Germany. This morning, the firm also said it will buy Larosé
• Drax shares fall as much as 3.7% after UBS initiated coverage of the chemicals firm with a sell rating, saying too much optimism is priced in for the shares

Earlier in the session, Asia’s benchmark also pared its monthly advance. Stocks in Asia slipped as broad regional losses, led by China and Hong Kong, outweighed gains in Japan and South Korea. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.1%, with Alibaba and Tencent among the top laggards, though it’s on track to end the month up 3.6%. The MSCI China Index is on course for its first monthly loss since April, as a liquidity-fueled AI rally gives way to concerns about lingering US-China tensions and economic concerns. In Japan, Hitachi’s better-than-expected earnings and upgraded outlook lifted sentiment. With stocks across major markets trading near record highs, investors are watching for concentration risk and strength of earnings. Results from Amazon and Apple in the US helped lift sentiment around technology names, but BYD’s sales miss raised concerns on the Chinese electric vehicle industry. Stocks also rose in New Zealand and Indonesia, while declining in Vietnam, India and Thailand.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed Friday, set to gain 1.5% in October, which would be its second monthly advance this year. USD/JPY fell to 153.65 as inflation in Tokyo rose at a faster pace in October, backing the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike. It has since reversed losses, trading little changed around 154.12. In addition to Tokyo inflation, Japan’s better-than-expected industrial output in September also supported the yen earlier. Spot hit the session low after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is monitoring the yen with a strong sense of urgency

In rates, US Treasuries steadied after two sessions of sharply higher yields; most yields were within a basis point of Thursday’s closing levels. US 10-year around 4.105% is just below Thursday’s high; bunds and gilts in the sector keep pace. Curve is slightly steeper, widening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads by less than 1bp on the day. Price action in European bonds is similarly muted following French and euro-area inflation data for October. 

In commodities, gold lower and hovering around $4,000/oz. Oil falling, with Brent short of $65/barrel. Oil set for a third monthly loss.

US economic calendar slate includes October MNI Chicago PMI at 9:45am (several minutes earlier for subscribers); US government data continue to be postponed by shutdown that began Oct. 1.  Fed speaker slate includes Dallas Fed President Logan (9:30am) and Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (12pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.7%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.2%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.4%
• CAC 40 -0.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.1%
• VIX -0.8 points at 16.15
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1218.88
• euro little changed at $1.157
• WTI crude -0.6% at $60.18/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump Urges Republicans to End the Filibuster to Reopen Government. WSJ
• Elon Musk’s SpaceX Set to Win $2 Billion Pentagon Satellite Deal. WSJ
• Private Credit’s Rising Pile of ‘Bad PIK’ Points to Default Woes. BBG
• A narrow Pacific waterway is at the heart of U.S. plans to choke China’s vast navy. RTRS
• China’s factory activity slumped for the longest streak in more than nine years, prompting fresh calls for greater policy support even as the country reached a trade truce with the US. BBG
• Trump's exit is Xi's cue to take centre stage at APEC. RTRS
• More Home Purchases Are Falling Through in an Uncertain Economy. WSJ
• King Charles strips brother Andrew of titles and his mansion. RTRS
• The great AI buildout shows no sign of slowing. RTRS
• Disney Channels Go Dark on YouTube TV. WSJ
• Big Tech Is Spending More Than Ever on AI and It’s Still Not Enough. WSJ
• China signals sharper pivot to consumption as imbalances worsen. RTRS
• The Japanese government is monitoring the yen with a strong sense of urgency, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said, sending her first clear warning on currency movements since taking on her role. BBG
• Inflation in Tokyo rose at a faster pace, supporting the case for the Bank of Japan to keep raising interest rates gradually and giving the yen a boost. BBG
• Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told China’s President Xi Jinping her concerns over his country’s rare earth export restrictions in their first formal meeting, as tensions spanning from trade to security continue to simmer between the two countries. BBG
• US President Trump's administration fired Fannie Mae ethics officials, according to WSJ.
• NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang told reporters that he hopes to sell the Blackwell chip to China, but as it stands there are no plans to do so. Sales were not a topic of discussion during the meeting with China's Council for the Promotion of Trade. Co. has been growing quickly, but in the last six months this has accelerated "quite substantially".

Trade/Tariffs

• Chinese President Xi called for safeguarding multilateral trade at the APEC summit and urged members to practice true multilateralism, while he called on APEC to keep industrial and supply chains smooth and stable. Xi said APEC should promote an open regional economic environment and called for promoting trade and investment liberalisation, as well as urged members to jointly promote the digitalisation and greening of free trade.
• China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang said they will conduct studies on international standards, economic and trade rules, and continue to meet them in terms of green standards. Li said export volume of photovoltaic products exceeded CNY 200bln for four consecutive years, and that export volume of electric vehicles exceeded 2mln units for the first time last year. Furthermore, he said green vehicles such as locomotives have also maintained strong growth and that China will continue to adapt to the global trend of green and low-carbon development.
• South Korean President Lee said they are at a critical inflection point of change in global order, and global trade uncertainty is deepening.
• EU officials will today be informed about a visit by US Commerce Secretary Lutnick to the EU on November 24th for trade talks, via Politico.
• Japan's PM Takaichi to Chinese President Xi says she would like to confirm basic direction of Japan-China relation, including building constructive and stable ties.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region digested recent earnings releases and a data deluge at month-end. ASX 200 was flat as gains in mining, materials and resources were offset as defensives lagged. Nikkei 225 outperformed and climbed above the 52,000 level to print a fresh all-time high after recent currency weakness and the lack of immediate rate hike signals from the BoJ, while participants digested a slew of data, including a higher Unemployment Rate, hot Tokyo CPI and a rebound in Industrial Production. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were amid losses in tech stocks, and after Chinese Manufacturing PMI data missed expectations and showed a faster pace of contraction in factory activity

Top Asian News

 

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said discussions on lowering gasoline prices have progressed, including sources for funding, while she added that the Bank of Japan’s recent decision was extremely reasonable and that monetary policies are up to the BoJ to decide. Katayama also commented that they are recently seeing one-sided and rapid moves, as well noted, it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and they are closely watching foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) opened mostly lower and have traded with a negative bias throughout the morning. Pressure which lacks a fresh catalyst, but follows on from a tentative APAC session. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only a few sectors managing to hold afloat. Banks buoyed by upside in the likes of Danske Bank (+1.8%) and Caixabank (+1.4%), post-earnings. Construction & Materials is found right at the foot of the pile, pressured by losses in Saint-Gobain (-1.9%), after it missed on its Q3 revenue figure.

Top European News

• ECB's Rehn says keeping interest rate unchanged is justified due to uncertainty about inflation outlook in the coming years. The impact of tariffs on inflation appears to be disinflationary.
• ECB's Muller says economic situation has gradually improved and current interest rates level is appropriate.
• ECB's Kazaks says ECB will move when needed but shouldn't be 'jumpy', growth is still weak with high uncertainty. Should not overinterpret 2028 inflation outlook.

FX

• DXY is slightly firmer and currently trading at the mid-point of a 99.41-99.66 range. Nothing really behind the mild strength today, but it does comes amid elevated yields in the aftermath of the hawkish Powell presser. Focus for the day will be on the Chicago PMI and commentary from Fed’s Logan and Bostic; Miran and Schmid will also likely explain their recent dissent. As a reminder, Miran voted for a 50bps cut, whilst Schmid opted for U/C.
• EUR is flat vs the USD, trading in a tight 1.1556-1.1577 range. The single-currency was little moved on the ECB decision itself, and President Lagarde lacked surprises at her presser thereafter. Following the announcement, Reuters sources suggested that ECB policymakers are preparing for a December showdown on inflation and rates. Some favour a cut, to prevent undershooting in 2028 whilst others give little weight to longer-term outlooks. Turning to this morning, a few ECB members have provided commentary; Rehn said keeping rates steady was justified due to uncertainty, Muller said current interest rates are appropriate and Kazaks suggested the ECB should not be “jumpy” adding that growth is still weak. On data, little move to the EZ HICP, whereby the headline printed in-line with expectations at 2.1% (prev. 2.2%); core and super-core metrics remained unchanged from the prior, defying the forecast for a slight moderation.
• GBP is a touch softer vs the broadly firmer Dollar; currently trading within a narrow 1.3126-1.3164 range. Really not much by way of fresh in terms of the UK’s Budget, but traders are now weighing up possibilities of a Budget without Chancellor Reeves. In more detail, in the last few days, Reeves reportedly breached renting-related rules, forcing her to apologise for the mistake. There were calls for her to resign, though PM Starmer poured cold water on those suggesting that there is “no need” for further action. GBP did sour a touch in recent sessions, but has since stabilised as PM Starmer backed his Chancellor.
• JPY is a touch lower today and trades within a 153.66 to 154.41 range. Overnight the pair saw modest pressure following a hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI report, which saw the Y/Y jump to 2.8% (exp. 2.4%, prev. 2.4%). Also in focus for the Yen was some jawboning from the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama who said he has been recently seeing one-sided, rapid moves, adding that, he is closely watching foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency.
• Antipodeans are underperforming today, continuing the pressure seen in the APAC session. Downside which follows on from subdued Chinese Manufacturing PMI, and amidst a tentative risk tone in Asia and into the European session.

Fixed Income

• USTs are under modest pressure early doors amid the constructive performance of US equity futures as numbers from Amazon and Apple drive the region, and particularly the NQ, higher. Additionally, the debt space has been hit by Meta announcing USD 30bln of issuance, the largest corporate HG offering this since 2023 and the largest Meta has ever tapped the market for. Newsflow this morning has been light as we await upcoming Fed speakers. Into those, UST are towards the trough of a 112-17+ to 112-23+ band with downside of 5+ ticks at most. The low is just a tick above Thursday’s 112-16 post-Powell base. The Fed docket begins with Logan (2027), Bostic (2027) and Hammack (2026); however, the topics don’t appear to be directly pertinent to current/future monetary policy. Instead, the main focus will likely be on the dissent texts from Miran (voted for a 50bps cut, again) and Schmid (voted for U/C).
• Bunds are weighed on in-fitting with the above. Down to a 129.16 trough into the flash EZ HICP print, posting losses of c. 20 ticks at worst. Little move on the EZ HICP, whereby the headline printed in-line with expectations at 2.1% (prev. 2.2%); core and super-core metrics remained unchanged from the prior, above expectations. Ultimately, the print does not change the narrative for the ECB that inflation remains near target and the outlook is broadly unchanged. As a reminder, post-ECB Reuters sources added to the known narrative around December; that the 2028 inflation forecasts could spark a ‘showdown’ on inflation and by extension interest rates, as the 2028 projection could print in favour of easing.
• Gilts opened lower by 18 ticks at the benchmark reacted to the overnight pressure from US earnings and Meta issuance. Thereafter, Gilts fell another 10 to a 93.44 trough but still clear of Thursday’s 93.29 base and the WTD low of 93.15 from Monday. Specifics for the UK are relatively light, domestic press remains focussed on the rental blunder by Chancellor Reeves. As it stands, PM Starmer is standing by her but the scandal could ultimately lead to her dismissal; given how close we are to the Autumn Budget, if that occurs before the replacement would likely be a continuity-appointment to essentially deliver Reeves’ budget.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are on the backfoot but remain rangebound as the market waits for the OPEC+ meeting at the weekend. Currently, WTI and Brent are oscillating in a tight USD 60.02-60.53/bbl and USD 63.83-64.33/bbl range respectively. On the Gaza ceasefire, it was reported that the US has allowed Israel to enforce the ceasefire and fire at Hamas targets behind the yellow line where the IDF holds in Gaza. Artillery shelling has been reported inside the yellow line east of Gaza city. However, this news has not shifted crude prices.
• Spot XAU followed on from Thursday’s rebound, extending to a peak of USD 4046/oz in the early hours of the APAC session before falling back lower to a trough of USD 3988/oz. XAU remains above USD 4k/oz, currently trading at 4003/oz, as the market digests a week of central bank announcements.
• Base metals continue to fall despite the positive China-US talks held in the early hours of Thursday’s session. Following Thursday’s selloff weighed on by dollar strength, 3M LME Copper rebounded in the latter hours of Thursday’s session and peaked at USD 10.98k/t as the APAC session got underway. The red metal fell to a trough of USD 10.86k/t and oscillated in a tight c. USD 40/oz before extending on the day’s losses. Thus far, 3M LME Copper remains near session lows at USD 10.83k/t.
• Oman December crude OSP at USD 65.06/bbl (prev. USD 70.01 M/M), via GME data.
• China Iron and Steel Association said China’s apparent steel consumption from January to September fell 5.7% Y/Y to 649mln metric tons, while it added that apparent steel consumption in 2025 is expected to fall for a fifth straight year.

Geopolitics

• Palestinian media reports Israeli raids targeted Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US reportedly cancelled the Trump-Putin meeting after Moscow sent a memo to Washington, as the Russian Foreign Ministry’s maximalist demands for ending the Ukraine war led to the US scrapping the planned meeting in Budapest, according to FT.
• Russia's Kremlin on FT report that US President Trump and Russia's President Putin meeting is cancelled says "I'd refer you to Russia's Foreign Ministry statement, not newspapers reports".
• US President Trump's administration identified targets in Venezuela that include military facilities used to smuggle drugs, according to WSJ citing US officials familiar with the matter. Furthermore, the officials stated that if Trump decided to move forward with airstrikes, the targets would send a clear message to Venezuelan leader Maduro that it is time to step down.
• US Secretary of Defense Hegseth met with Chinese counterpart Dong Jun, which he said was a good and constructive meeting, while he highlighted the importance of maintaining the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, he highlighted US concerns about China’s activities in the South China Sea and said the US will continue to stoutly defend its interests.

US Event calendar

• 8:30 am: Sep Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: Sep Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
• 8:30 am: Sep Real Personal Spending, est. 0.18%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: Sep PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Sep PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
• 8:30 am: Sep Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Sep Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
• 8:30 am: 3Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
• 9:45 am: Oct MNI Chicago PMI, est. 42, prior 40.6

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Halloween to you all. My main skill today will be to persuade my family that although I’m a bit more mobile now, the risks of going trick or treating is just too great so soon after the back operation. I’m not convinced that will fly. I may threaten to show off my two huge operation scars to frighten everyone! The whole family have extravagant outfits delivered yesterday from Amazon with every accessory imaginable. No wonder their results were so good last night.

Indeed just as the tech mood had soured yesterday, this morning that has mostly turned around following results from Apple and Amazon after the closing bell. Amazon’s shares surged by +13% in post-market trading as its cloud revenue grew +20% y/y, the fastest since 2022. So that boosted sentiment on what has been the weakest performing of the Mag-7 stocks this year, with only a +1.58% YTD gain after yesterday’s -3.23% decline.  Meanwhile, Apple saw a +2% after-market gain as it projected 10-12% revenue growth in the current quarter (vs. +6% est.) driven by stronger iPhone sales. US equity futures are erasing much of yesterday’s decline this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.65% and on the NASDAQ up +1.21%.

This renewed momentum has helped sentiment after a more challenging day yesterday despite the positive outcomes from the US-China trade discussions. Investor concerns over AI-related capital expenditure resurfaced, highlighted by Meta’s sharp decline of -11.33% after results after the closing bell on Wednesday night. The company also announced a $30 billion bond issuance - the largest in over two years - to fund its operations. So not all capex is being funded out of cash! Nvidia also fell -2.00% as investors didn’t received any clarity on possible Blackwell chip sales to China. Overnight Trump has actually said that they didn’t talk about Blackwell specifically. These developments curtailed the recent equity rally, with the S&P 500 down -0.99%, the Nasdaq off -1.57%, and the Magnificent 7 sliding -2.73%. We could get a bounce back today.

One of the more fascinating stories yesterday was Meta’s $30 billion bond sale announcement, aimed at supporting its AI growth and infrastructure. US IG was a couple basis points wider yesterday to make room for the deal. A deluge of corporate bond issuance also appeared to push up Treasury yields early in the US session, with 10yr yields closing +2.1bps at 4.10%. Meta’s shares were already falling before the deal was announced due to disappointments in the earnings release the night before. Initially they dropped as much as -13.50% before closing -11.33% lower - its largest fall since the autumn 2022 bear market. This followed Wednesday’s disclosure that Meta expects to spend up to $72 billion on capital expenditures this year, primarily on datacentres and infrastructure, with further increases anticipated in 2026. Investors are increasingly questioning the return on such spending, particularly given Meta’s revenue-to-capex ratio of just 3.02—the lowest among its peers.

Markets are also still digesting the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea. While most agreements had been priced in beforehand, the two leaders agreed to a one-year trade truce until November 2026. The US will reduce its fentanyl-related tariff from 20% to 10%, and China will remove its 10–15% retaliatory tariffs on various US agricultural products and delay rare earth export controls announced earlier this month. Despite this stabilisation, structural differences persist, and it’s easy for there to be some scepticism of the deal’s scope due to the lack of concrete commitments. The sense that we are seeing more of an extended truce rather than a de-escalation was added to by US Trade Representative Greer confirming last night that the US will continue a recently opened probe into China’s compliance with the limited trade agreement reached during Trump’s first term.

Asian equity markets saw mixed performance this morning, with the Nikkei (+2.03%) and KOSPI (+0.5%) helped by gains in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 is flat with China risk lagging on poor PMI data.  The CSI (-1.14%), Hang Seng (-0.88%), and the Shanghai Composite (-0.75%) are all lower.

With regards to that data, the official manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 49.0, compared to the expected 49.6, down from 49.8 in September, and the lowest for 6 months. The non-manufacturing PMI increasing to 50.1 in October as anticipated. However, the weakness in manufacturing has caused the composite PMI to decline to 50.0 in October from 50.6.

In Japan, Tokyo’s core CPI increased by 2.8% in October, surpassing expectations (2.6%) and underscoring ongoing inflationary pressures. Ueda yesterday seemed to place more emphasis on monitoring things like progress on the next spring Shinto wage negotiations and how the economy was dealing with tariff uncertainty. So this higher inflation alone won't seemingly change much. Also in Japan, factory output in September rose by 2.2% from the previous month, exceeding market forecasts of a 1.5% increase, while retail sales showed a modest year-on-year rebound of 0.5%, compared to the expected 0.7%, indicating fragile domestic demand. Additionally, Japan’s unemployment rate unexpectedly remained stable at 2.6% in September (expectations at 2.5%).

Turning to Europe, the ECB held rates steady at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, citing mixed signals on growth and inflation. President Christine Lagarde reiterated that policy is “in a good place”, though she emphasised it is “not a fixed place”, and the ECB will act as needed to maintain stability. While there were no material surprises, our economists note that if anything the ECB seemed a little more confident about growth amid all the uncertainties, continuing a trend of increasingly less dovish statements. They continue to see the ECB as having reached the end of its easing cycle (see their reaction here). Market expectations for ECB rate cuts remain muted, with just 11.6bps of cuts priced by next September (-0.7bps on the day).

European sovereign yields moved modestly higher, with the 10yr Bund yield up +2.2bps, OATs +1.7bps, and BTPs +1.7bps. That rise in yields was supported by decent Euro area Q3 GDP data, with quarter-on-quarter growth at +0.2% (vs. +0.1% expected). Germany posted flat growth (0.0% vs. 0.0% expected), while France outperformed at +0.5% (vs. +0.2% expected). You can view our economists’ note here. Positives include strong private sector savings, fiscal policy flexibility (except in France), and a less restrictive monetary outlook. However, US tariffs remain a headwind. Despite the stronger-than-expected growth, the Stoxx 600 (-0.10%) lost ground, with France’s CAC (-0.53%) and Spain’s IBEX (-0.68%) leading the decline.

In commodities, gold rebounded above $4,000/oz, rising +2.40%. Brent crude saw a modest gain, climbing to $65.00/bbl (+0.12%), after President Trump indicated that China will begin importing oil and gas from Alaska.

In other news, liberal Dutch leader Rob Jetten is poised to become the next prime minister in the Netherlands after the D66 party performed better than expected in Wednesday’s parliamentary elections. This marks a shift back to the centre following the 2023 elections, which were won by the far-right Freedom Party, now set to lose 11 seats.

Looking ahead to today, the main release will be inflation data in Europe, with October CPI due for France, Italy and the Euro area. We’ll also hear from Fed officials Logan, Hammack, and Bostic, while key earnings reports are expected from ExxonMobil, AbbVie, and Chevron.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 08:37

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Oct. 25

• AActive inventory climbed 14.6% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 14.6% year-over-year, marking the 103th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 26th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer, and homeowners aren’t eager to sell.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—up 5.9% year over year

New listings were up 5.9% last week compared with the same period a year ago, extending the streak of accelerating growth to three weeks.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price remained flat compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, the price per square foot fell 0.8% year over year, dropping for the eighth consecutive week. The price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

Air Traffic Controllers Ask Public For Donations As Shutdown Drags On

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Air traffic controllers who missed their paychecks for the first time on Oct. 28 during the ongoing government shutdown gathered at several airports nationwide to ask the public for donations.

An air traffic control tower at Los Angeles International Airport on Oct. 28, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Controllers passed out leaflets at 20 airports to also ask people to call their congressional representatives and urge them to reopen the government.

The effort was organized by the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, which represents nearly 20,000 controllers, engineers, and other safety-related professionals across the United States.

Association President Nick Daniels joined Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on Tuesday for a press conference about the missing paychecks.

The shutdown has strained the nation’s network of air traffic controllers, causing flight delays and cancellations as staff shortages leave some towers without enough support, officials reported.

The extra stress of worrying about putting food on the table and paying rent has exacerbated the crisis, according to Daniels.

“America’s air traffic controllers are now having to focus on how do they put gas in their car? How do they take care of their children? How do they pay for child care?” Daniels said. “That makes the system less safe.”

He urged people to contact their congressional representatives to take action and end the shutdown.

“These hardworking men and women are showing up to do their jobs,” he said.

Duffy said many long-serving controllers can survive without this first paycheck because they have planned for days such as these. But many new controllers who are still in training can’t handle not being paid.

Some controllers have taken on second jobs with Uber, DoorDash, and other services to get through the shutdown, he said.

But missing another paycheck would be devastating for most of them, he said.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy speaks about how the government shutdown is affecting travel at airports throughout the country during a press conference at LaGuardia Airport in New York City on Oct. 28, 2025. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

“Almost every controller can’t make it [without] two paychecks,” Duffy said.

The demonstrations at airports this week were meant to send a message to Congress, he said.

A bill was presented in the Senate on Tuesday that would have allowed the shutdown to continue and also provided pay to critical workers, such as air traffic controllers. The bill failed after Senate Democrats voted against it.

“Controllers and those other critical employees need our government to be open, and they need to be paid,” Duffy said.

The shutdown could create long-term problems for the Transportation Department, even if the government reopened this week, Duffy said.

Some trainees have left the air traffic control program, and instructors at the academy are not being paid.

“This truly can drive people out of a profession where we’re trying to build more numbers instead of taking numbers away from us,” Duffy said.

Duffy estimated the department had about one week left before it runs out of funding for the air traffic control academy.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 08:05

Seven Scary Charts To Frighten Investors This Halloween

Authored by Jack Ridge via BondVigilantes.com,

Fixed Income investors may find themselves shutting the curtains and hiding under the sofa this Halloween. There is much to be fearful of – deterioration of developed market fundamentals, falling labour market confidence and slowdown indicated in shipping. And that’s just the beginning!

This pumpkin spiced latte season, we take a look at seven charts which look beyond the rally we have seen in risk assets. Perhaps its not all as rosy as it appears on the surface. Maybe it is best to check under the bed for market risks…

Happy Halloween!

1. The EM-ification of DM? Investors find DM fiscal sustainability scary

Source: Bloomberg and JP Morgan. As at 30 September 2025. Indices used: JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite – Gross Return (USD Unhedged), ICE BofA Developed Markets Sovereign Bond (USD Unhedged)

As developed market economies continue to carry historically very high levels of debt, and with government bond issuance at all time highs, there is increasing convergence in volatility between EM and DM. The fundamentals in EM look solid, but there has been a deterioration across DM. This werewolf type behaviour hasn’t gone unnoticed, and markets are starting to price this in.

The full moon has DM fundamentals howling

2. Darkness approaching? Labour market confidence signalling recession?

Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg (CONCLBDF Index), 31 August 2025

Strain in the labour market is a classic sign of a recession. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Labor Differential is suggesting some significant deterioration in the availability of work. Spotting recession is easy in hindsight, but perhaps it has already made its way into the house hiding behind the door? The shape looks familiar to that of recessions gone by… could history be repeating itself?

Nightmare on Wall Street

3. Interest expense taking the opportunity of better services away?

Source: Bloomberg, Congressional Budget Office (31 December 2024)

US government debt levels have been soaring in the last 10 years. We find ourselves in a situation where interest payments servicing US debt are well in excess of their defence budget ($800 billion)! With so much money being spent on interest, what are the consequences for citizens in terms of services, and what effect does this have on growth? Is this a downward spiral that is tricky to escape?

‘Do you like scary net interest expenses?’ Enough to make you SCREAM.

4. A terrible fright in US freight – leading indicator for slowdown?

Source: Bloomberg (30 September 2025)

The Cass Freight Index is a measurement of monthly freight activity. A combination of restrictive monetary policy and a weakening consumer has led to a deterioration in the data, and the impact of tariffs are yet to be fully felt. We are approaching levels that we last saw during the Global Financial Crisis – serious slowdown in the economy. Perhaps this is indicating something more malicious lurking under the surface in the global economy? Are we yet to feel the full effects?

‘We’re gonna need a bigger boat!’ and more of them! Or the slowdown is upon us.

5. A trick for equities, a treat for fixed income?

Source: Robert J Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (updated, October 2025)

During the 2010s there was no alternative but to invest in equities. However, this is no longer the case. Bonds are back! Back to 1881, the excess CAPE Shiller earnings yield has been a strong indicator of subsequent 10 year returns in equity markets. The 2010s produced supernormal returns, but valuations are becoming increasingly stretched. At current levels, the S&P 500 would return 1.6% annualised over the next 10 years. With risk-free 10 year US Treasuries offering a return of 4%, bonds are considerably more attractive. All this before picking up the extra return on offer in credit markets, and outperformance from here with an active manager!

‘Who ya gonna call?’

‘Fixed Income!’

6. The ghost of the GFC in London housing starts and sales?

Source: Molior (30 September 2025)

The housing market can be a good temperature check for any economy. If the housing market is hot, this has multiplier effects to other sectors as home buyers purchase new furniture, carpets, appliances etc. London housing starts and sales are now down at GFC lows – a potential indicator of an economic slowdown when reflected on a national scale. There are moves afoot to boost the housing market and encourage further housebuilding through much needed planning reform in efforts to avert a slowdown. If there is a recession coming, will it be as deep as the GFC?  We think not, although it may be ‘L shaped’.

Déjà Boo: housing starts and sales in London have a scary resemblance to 2008

7. A Sixth Sense in the US auto loan market?

Source: M&G, Bloomberg, St Louis Fed (30 June 2025, latest available data)

There has been a strong uptick in serious auto loan delinquencies (defined as repayments 90 days+ past due) as the impact of the higher rates environment has been felt by consumers. We are now at levels approaching that of the GFC. Perhaps this shows us the weakness that is being felt by the consumer. Over the course of this chart, the total debt outstanding in auto loans has risen from $800 billion in 2008 to $1.65 trillion in 2025 (acknowledging inflation and the rise in car prices in this period, albeit many more cars are now on financing deals).

‘I see dead auto loans’ – are we seeing the weakness of consumer like in 2008?

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 07:20

Poland, Slovakia, Hungary Defy EU By Keeping Bans On Ukraine Imports

A new European Union deal to liberalize trade with Ukraine took effect Wednesday, but Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are defying it, maintaining their protectionist bans on imports from the country. Their defiance comes amid mounting grievances over EU prioritization of the West's proxy war on Russia over the prosperity of EU member states and their citizens.   

Approved on Oct 13, the new EU arrangement expands tariff-free Ukrainian access to European markets, replacing a temporary lowering of trade barriers adopted after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. “We believe (the agreement) is a stable, fair framework, that can be reliable both for the EU and for Ukraine, to ensure a gradual integration in our single market, while providing stable trade flows," said European Commission spokeswoman Ariana Podesta. The European Commission (EC) is the EU's principal executive branch.  

"Brussels wants to give farmers’ money to Ukraine," says Hungary's defiant Agriculture Minister István Nagy

Rebelling against the Brussels regime, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia say they will maintain the bans on agricultural imports from Ukraine they put in place in 2023. The three countries' bans were a reaction to a wartime glut of Ukrainian products, which resulted from Black Sea ports being disrupted by the war with Russia. The glut sank prices and hammered domestic producers. 

By imposing their own individual trade barriers, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are violating EU's single-market regulations. On Thursday, the EC said it isn't ruling out the possibility of taking legal action. “We see no justification for maintaining these national measures,” EC spokesman Olof Gill told Politico. While asserting that "all options are on the table," Gill said the EC would "intensify its contact" with the uncooperative trio of Eastern European states. Thus far, the EC has been a paper tiger, tolerating the ban for two years while hoping the new arrangement would render them moot. 

The new EU trade rules limit some imports from Ukraine, including grains and oil. They also have a "safeguard clause" allowing protective measures to be employed if a glut of imports hurts domestic producers. However, Slovakian Agriculture Minister Richar Takáč told Politico the restrictions are "not strong enough" to protect his country's farmers. Via social media, Hungary’s Agriculture Minister István Nagy wrote, “Although Brussels wants to give farmers’ money to Ukraine, we are protecting the resources, the livelihoods of Hungarian producers and our market.” 

Slovakian Agriculture Minister Richar Takáč said the EU is failing to protect domestic producers 

Goods aren't the only inflows from Ukraine that are testing the patience of European countries. Refugees from Ukraine are straining governments, soaking up welfare payments and competing with natives for employment. Things were already bad enough, but now Ukraine's liberalized restrictions on male travel from the country are yielding a huge surge in military-age men pouring into Europe, with Poland and Germany bearing the brunt of it.

Conservatives in both countries are pointing to the disconnect between supporting Ukraine's futile resistance to Russia at the same time young Ukrainian men are refusing to take part. As Poland's Confederation party said this week, “Poland cannot continue to be a refuge for thousands of men who should be defending their own country, while burdening Polish taxpayers with the costs of their desertion.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 06:55

Happy Halloween! My end-of-week morning Trick or Treat reads:

• 6 ways the shutdown is about to get worse: Programs ranging from Head Start to SNAP face new strain November 1. (Politico)

• Is it really a bubble? We’ll probably know in five years’ time. (Financial Times) see also This market analyst is an expert on stock bubbles. Here’s what he’s saying now. You’re right to worry — but it’s probably too early to be bearish. (Marketwatch) see also Why the AI Spending Spree Could Spell Trouble for Investors: As Big Tech pours trillions into AI infrastructure, history warns of overinvestment, shrinking returns, and rising risks. (Morningstar)

• The surprising reason home prices remain stubbornly high: A growing number of home sellers are taking lingering properties off the market instead of lowering their prices.Nationwide, delistings rose 52% in September compared to the year before, after peaking at a nearly 72% annual growth rate in August, according to fresh data from Realtor.com. That’s up from September 2024, when delistings rose 46%. (Washington Post)

• Rare Earths Producers Look to US-Led Boom to Blunt China’s Power: Even if a trade deal materializes, the industry is betting the world won’t want to go back to one supplier. (Bloomberg) see also Cowboy Diplomacy: Ranchers Reject Tariff Rhetoric: Cattlemen bristle at being treated as economic pawns. Protectionism is an insult to people who embody the mythos of American self-reliance. (Daily Economy)

• Boring Is What We Wanted: Apple silicon has been nothing but upside for the Mac, and yet some seem bored already. In the days since Apple announced the M5, I’ve seen and heard this sentiment more than I expected: This is just another boring incremental upgrade. That is the point. (512 Pixels)

• He Won the $2 Billion Powerball. Now He’s Buying Up Lots Burned in the L.A. Fires. Edwin Castro is one of the biggest investors snapping up destroyed properties—and he wants to lead in rebuilding his hometown of Altadena. (Wall Street Journal)

• America Doesn’t Have Enough Weapons for a Major Conflict. This Is Why. This summer, employees at several big defense companies went on strike. Their grievances highlight a much larger problem brewing beneath the surface. (Politico)

• New Report Finds Efforts to Slow Climate Change Are Working—Just Not Fast Enough: By virtually every key metric, efforts to fight climate change are going too slowly, according to findings by a coalition of climate groups. In some cases, things are moving in the wrong direction. (NOEMA)

• Historians Don’t Think a US Civil War Is Likely—but They’re Still Nervous: “The fabric of what binds America together at this point is basically on its final thread,” (Wired) see also Redistricting Wars: The President’s party loses seats in midterm elections (18 of the 20 since WWII). States redistrict once per decade following the Census & reapportionment. Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act requires the creation & maintenance of majority-minority districts. (Bruce Mehlman’s Age of Disruption)

• What’s Eating George Clooney? He’s having a career for the ages. He has two adorable kids, a brilliant and beautiful wife, plenty of money, and still has his hair. There’s just one problem. (Esquire)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Jon Hilsenrath of Serpa Pinto Advisory. Previously, he was chief economics correspondent for Wall Street Journal for 26 years. Dubbed the “Fed Whisperer” by Wall Street traders for his scoops on the FOMC, he worked out of Hong Kong, NY, and D.C. He was part of the Pulitzer Prize-winning team for on-scene coverage of 9/11.  He is the author of “Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval.”

 

These measures of housing stock availability point to a growing gap between supply and demand

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

27 Microbes Linked To Pancreatic Cancer, Major Study Finds

Authored by Rachel Ann T. Melegrito via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A simple saliva test could one day predict your risk of pancreatic cancer. Scientists have discovered that having a certain community of bacteria in your mouth can triple the likelihood of developing one of the deadliest forms of cancer—and the culprits include the same microbes that cause gum disease.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

The recent study, published in JAMA Oncology, analyzed saliva samples from 122,000 participants in two large epidemiological studies and followed them for approximately nine years. During that time, 445 people developed pancreatic cancer.

In a microbiome-wide scan, researchers found 21 bacterial species linked to pancreatic cancer—eight tied to lower risk and 13 to higher risk.

In a separate test, researchers created a tool that predicted a person’s risks for pancreatic cancer. The tool took into account 27 microbes in total and would give participants a risk score depending on the microbes in their mouth. Each one-unit rise in the score tripled the risk of developing pancreatic cancer.

While some microbes in the risk score are individually linked to lower risk, the score reflects their combined effect. It’s a weighted measure that accounts for both protective and harmful species.

Three were well-known periodontal pathogens with established roles in gum disease.

The fungi implicated were Candida tropicalis, Candida spp (unresolved species), Candida albicans, and Malassezia globosa. The entire genus Candida, a common yeast, was also tied to greater risk, particularly among participants with a history of smoking.

How Mouth Bacteria Reach the Pancreas

Harmful bacteria don’t just stay in the mouth, they can travel throughout the body and trigger disease.

The mouth has local, systemic, and direct influence on disease in your body, Thaddeus Connelly, an oral and maxillofacial surgeon, physician, and CEO of Gengyve, told The Epoch Times.

“Oral microbes exist in a balanced ecosystem when we’re healthy,” said Dileep Sharma, a professor and head of discipline, oral health at the University of Newcastle. When that balance is disrupted, harmful bacteria can directly damage the gums and bone and cause chronic inflammation, first in the mouth, and later in distant organs.

“If you are chronically, or over a long period of time, constantly releasing the inflammatory molecules into your bloodstream, the tissues and organs that receive that constant alarm signal develop disease,” Connelly said. This chronic inflammation, he added, is a key driver of conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, fatty liver disease, stroke, and cancer.

Bacteria can also travel from the saliva through the gut to organs and cause inflammation and damage there, like the pancreas, possibly leading to cancer.

Poor oral hygiene and gum disease can create a steady “drip” of bacteria into the blood. Inflamed gums allow microbes to slip into tiny blood vessels during everyday actions like chewing, brushing, or flossing.

The Same Bacteria, Multiple Diseases

The same microbes associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer are also linked to other conditions.

P. gingivalis, the main bacterium behind gum disease, has been linked to infective endocarditis, cardiovascular disease, arthritis (often in combination with Prevotella intermedia), and even Alzheimer’s disease. Prevotella species themselves have also been connected to head and neck cancers.

Fusobacterium nucleatum is implicated in the development of inflammatory bowel disease. Parvimonas species are frequently found in spinal infections. Meanwhile, Candida albicans, a common fungal organism, has been linked to an increased risk of several cancers.

According to Sharma, microbial byproducts can contribute to oral and gastrointestinal cancers, while chronic inflammation from an imbalanced microbiome may drive mutations that lead to tumors.

“It starts in the mouth and gut, with poor diet and periodontal disease to blame,” Connelly said.

What You Can Do

While the study identifies risk factors rather than proving cause and effect, maintaining good oral hygiene remains crucial for overall health.

“It is clearer than ever that brushing and flossing your teeth may not only help prevent periodontal disease but may also protect against cancer,” study co-senior author Dr. Richard Hayes, a professor in the Department of Population Health at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, said in a press release.

Most oral hygiene comes down to keeping your mouth clean and maintaining the right balance of bacteria. The basics, brushing and flossing, work by mechanically disrupting and preventing plaque from forming.

Plaque begins soft, but as it absorbs minerals, it hardens and attracts more dangerous bacterial species. Mature plaque becomes a breeding ground for harmful bacteria like F. nucleatum and P. gingivalis, Connelly said.

“Oral hygiene is critical in maintaining a clean mouth and the right bacteria in your mouth,” Connelly said. Brushing, flossing, and rinsing help stop plaque from forming and hardening into what he calls a “bad bacteria factory,” creating an environment where healthy bacteria can thrive.

However, not all oral hygiene products kill bacteria.

Toothpaste does not kill bacteria, and mouthwashes kill both good and bad bacteria, Connelly said.

“Beyond brushing and flossing, use a product that is scientifically formulated as a physical barrier against the establishment and maturation of plaque, ” Connelly said. He suggests mouthwashes that have hyaluronic acid and other mucoadhesive components such as pullulan and polyvinylpyrrolidone.

These products mix and form a protective net on the surface of the teeth and soft tissues inside the mouth, where the battle between different microbes is waged.

Research also shows that tongue cleaning supports a healthier balance of microbes.

Sharma said that lifestyle has a big impact on the oral microbiome.

Eating more fiber-rich foods and quitting smoking can improve its balance. Smoking encourages harmful bacteria tied to gum disease, while diets high in polyphenols, omega-3s, and fiber support healthy bacteria and reduce inflammation.

Other practical strategies to promote a healthy oral microbiome include:

• Eating seafood, plant protein, and overall protein
• Cutting back on added sugar and carbohydrates
• Taking probiotics
• Eating fermented foods, such as yogurt, cheese, and fermented milk

As researchers continue to find out more about the connections between oral bacteria and systemic disease, one message is clear: Taking care of your mouth may protect far more than your teeth and gums.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 06:30

'Military Psychosis': Kremlin Responds To Belgian Minister's "Wipe Moscow Off The Map" Rhetoric

Earlier this week Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken issued some stark - and some might say, irresponsible - words directed at Moscow, warning that any missile strike on Brussels would trigger an overwhelming NATO response.

"If Putin launches a missile at Brussels, we will wipe Moscow off the map," Francken told the De Morgen daily on Monday. It's unclear what precisely prompted such an aggressive warning, coming after Russia's own 'red line' type rhetoric seeking to dissuade Washington from arming Kiev with long-range Tomahawk missiles.

Belgian defense chief Theo Francken. Source: DeMorgen

Franckena further said that any conventional attack on Brussels would also result in Moscow getting "flattened." 

Again, the words were ultra-provocative given it is only one country currently seeing its territory regularly attacked with the help of NATO, and that's Russia.

When asked in the interview about European doubts concerning Trump's commitment to NATO, Franckena responded, "The bias against the American government is so great in Europe. Unbelievable...He literally said that America will continue to support its NATO allies one hundred percent. A cruise missile on Brussels? That's a no-brainer, whatever definition you use. Putin won't do that either."

"I consider a major Russian attack on the Baltic states less likely. Those are NATO member states, after all. Soon we'll have six hundred F-35s in Europe: the Russians are afraid of them because they can't see them," he added.

In response, the Russian Embassy in Belgium promptly condemned Francken’s "provocative and irresponsible" statements as "sheer absurdity and total disconnect from reality." 

As quoted in state media, the embassy said further:

"Francken’s escapades are the most glaring manifestation of the militarist frenzy that is increasingly consuming the European war party," the embassy said.

It added that EU officials like Francken are "posing a threat to the continent’s future and [are] capable of plunging it into a new war."

And separately, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko said Wednesday that Francken’s words were in line with "the atmosphere of military psychosis" which now dominates discourse in Western Europe.

Moscow has been repeatedly warning that long-range Western-supplied missiles on Russian territory will change the nature of the conflict, and that runaway escalation with NATO could be the result.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 05:45

German 'Anti-Greta' Activist Seeks Asylum In The US After Antifa Death Threats

Update (0500ET): Florida Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is focused on Naomi's case: 

Today, I met with and reviewed documentation regarding Naomi Seibt’s asylum case. It is clear that, due to her support for President Trump and her refusal to conform to leftist ideology, she has been targeted and could face imprisonment/physical danger  if she returns to Germany—simply for rejecting the groupthink that is currently dominating the country and destroying its economy.

I will be personally assisting with her case and writing to the Secretary of State regarding what she is facing as well as the german government’s prosecution of its own citizens for fighting western ideology and their culture. What is even more alarming is that she was targeted by German intelligence and government officials for advocating on behalf of the German people and supporting the AfD.

The very same German government that claims to fight Nazism is becoming acting like the secret police. If you share a meme, you may go to jail. If you criticize a politician, you could face retribution or imprisonment. 

I would hope the Chancellor understands that the entire international community—especially the United States—is watching what is happening in Germany. The German government has a great deal of explaining to do, particularly to its own people.

*  *  *

As Jonathan Turley detailed earlier, for years, some of us have been writing about the collapse of free speech protections in Europe as the left criminalizes a wide range of expressions and viewpoints.

Now, a leading young German advocate, Naomi Seibt, known as the “Anti-Greta,” is seeking political asylum in the United States after years of Antifa threats. At one time, the idea of someone seeking asylum from a Western democracy would have been considered material for the Onion. Today, it is credible given the rising intolerance for opposing views in countries like Germany.

While we do not know a great deal about the underlying threats, Seibt, 25, recently filed the petition for political asylum, arguing that she is now fearful for her life after a litany of threats from the left. In addition, she recounted how she was informed that German police engaged in years of surveillance of her movements and communications — a complaint made by a wide array of conservatives and others in the country.

I discussed the war on free speech in Germany in my book, “The Indispensable Right.” We recently discussed how the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) is conducting a nationwide search for citizens accused of committing speech crimes.  The annual crackdown is part of Germany’s robust censorship and speech criminalization policies. We also discussed how Germany is extending its criminalization of speech to the Internet.

*  *  * Click pic, add to cart, receive awesome knife:

Last year, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser was upset that civil libertarians were calling her anti-free speech, so she tried to shut down a publication for a satirical meme.

For this reason, it was fitting that the recent World Forum was held in Berlin. I spoke in Berlin at the World Forum, where European leaders gathered in one of the most strikingly anti-free speech conferences I have attended. This year’s forum embraced the slogan “A New World Order with European Values.”

That “new world order” is based on an aggressive anti-free speech platform that has been enforced for years by the European Union. It is vividly evident in the latest crackdown in Germany.

According to the BKA, there were 10,732 crimes related to online hate speech committed last year—a record number and four times the crimes from 2021. It is an example of the insatiable appetite created by censorship as people seek to silence their critics or those with opposing views.

North Rhine-Westphalia’s Interior Minister, Christian Democrat Herbert Reul seemed to relish the power: “Digital arsonists must not be able to hide behind their phones or computers. Anyone who thinks anything is allowed on social media is seriously mistaken.”

He added that “people have forgotten the difference between hate and opinion.” For those who cannot tell the difference, the solution is just to stay silent or risk a knock on the door. It is the very chilling effect reflected in the recent polling showing that most Germans are now uncomfortable sharing their views in public.

According to a poll of German citizens. Only 18% of Germans feel free to express their opinions in public. 59% of Germans did not even feel free to express themselves in private among friends. And just 17% felt free to express themselves online.

What Seibt is reporting is consistent with what free speech groups told me in Berlin. She stated, “In 2024, I found out that I had been spied on by German intelligence for years. Simultaneously, I keep receiving death threats from Antifa.” She also reported that the German police seemed hostile to her claims of threats and refused to take action.

Her high visibility as the counterfoil to climate crusader Greta Thunberg seemed to fuel the threats.

What is most interesting about this petition is the context of pronounced anti-free-speech policies and laws in Germany. As both Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have addressed in major speeches, Europe is now a threat to free speech, including the rights of American citizens and corporations. Germany and the EU now deny this “indispensable right” to its citizens while seeking to pressure companies like X and Facebook to restore censorship programs.

For the free speech community, we would always prefer that advocates stay and fight in their home countries. However, that is an easy “ask” when you are not being targeted by both the government and groups like Antifa. Unfortunately, many of us in the United States have received similar death threats, and we have seen a rise in political violence, particularly from Antifa. We discussed such an attack just yesterday.

While Democratic leaders like Rep. Dan Goldman (D., N.Y.) have denied the existence of Antifa, members continue to self-identify as well as to be indicted for political violence. In Europe, these “non-existent” groups actually have elected members in the EU and national legislatures.

As the EU and Europe continues to crack down on free speech, these asylum requests could well increase. We are used to people filing asylum petitions to flee religious intolerance. We are now seeking some of the first European fleeing speech discrimination. It is a sad statement about the state of free speech among some of our closest allies. However, as amplified by the remarks by Vance and Rubio, this is a very real threat to those who defy the majority in countries like Germany.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/31/2025 - 05:00

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.