Futures, Global Markets Jump On Trump Trade Deal With UK

US equity futures storm higher, and are back to their post-Liberation Day highs on positive trade news (Imminent "comprehensive" trade agreement with UK the first of his promised deals; removal of chip export restrictions) and a neutral Fed (economy has strength to wait to see trade war impact hit hard data) even as China again reiterated that the US should cancel unilateral tariffs ahead the first official meeting between the countries this weekend amid reports the US is considering exempting child-related goods from its 145% tariffs on China. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.9% while Nasdaq futures are 1.2% higher, both near session highs. Elsewhere FTSE +40bps, DAX +1.2%, CAC +1%, Shanghai +28bps, Hang Seng +37bps, Nikkei +41bps. Intel rose more than 3% in premarket trading, while peers such as Nvidia and Micron also gained on news Trump will rescind restrictions regulating the export of semiconductors to various countries. Outside of tariffs, Norway and Sweden central banks left rates unch (expected) while we get the BoE this morning (25bps cut expected). US Bond yields are 4-5bp higher across the curve and USD is poised to have its best day 6 sessions with DXY +50bp. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims, NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, and labor costs.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks climb as the Trump administration plans to rescind some Biden-era AI chip curbs as part of a broader effort to revise global semiconductor trade restrictions (Nvidia +1.6%, Alphabet +1.9%, Meta +2%, Tesla +1.3%, Apple +1%, Amazon +1.6%, Microsoft +0.9%). Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rise as Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 mark for the first time since February as global trade tensions show signs of easing. AppLovin climbs 14% after the AI-powered advertisement platform reported first-quarter results that beat expectations. Arm Holdings tumbled 9% after giving a disappointing sales forecast for the current quarter, stoking concerns about a tariff-fueled slowdown for the chip industry. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Carvana (CVNA) rises 4% after the online used-car retailer doubled its profits in the first quarter with record vehicle volume.
• Coherent (COHR) gains 6% after the semiconductor device company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations
• Dave Inc. (DAVE) rises 28% after the digital banking services company boosted its revenue and adjusted Ebitda forecast for the full year, surpassing expectations.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) drops 1.5% and AbbVie (ABBV) dips 1.7% following a Politico report that President Donald Trump plans to revive an effort to dramatically slash drug costs by tying the amount the government pays for some medicines to lower prices abroad.
• Fortinet (FTNT) tumbles 8% after the security software company reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook
• Fluence Energy Inc. (FLNC) falls 15% after the provider of energy storage systems cut its total revenue guidance range for the full year, a reduction of $700m at the midpoint.
• Fortinet (FTNT) tumbles 14% after the security software company reported its first-quarter results that Jefferies says missed “elevated investor expectations.”
• Krispy Kreme Inc. (DNUT) falls 19% after saying the company will no longer pay quarterly cash dividends in order to pay down its debt and focus on growth.
• Magnite Inc. (MGNI) rises 11% after the advertising technology company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations on profitability metrics. It also said it was taking a cautious approach in its outlook given tariff-related uncertainty, a move analysts support.
• MercadoLibre (MELI) climbs 8% after the e-commerce and fintech giant beat analysts’ expectations in the first quarter of the year, delivering strong growth in its credit portfolio.
• Peloton Interactive Inc. (PTON) falls 4% after reporting that revenue sank 13% last quarter, marking the third straight year-on-year decline in sales.
• Shopify Inc. (SHOP) slips 8% after projected sales in the current quarter that just met expectations, suggesting steep tariffs on goods from China present a challenge.
• Tapestry Inc. (TPR) gains 9% after the handbag maker raised its annual outlook, shrugging off broader concerns about worsening consumer sentiment and the trade war.
• Tutor Perini Corp. (TPC) climbs 15% after the construction company boosted its year profit outlook. First quarter revenue increased 19% from the year-ago period and beat estimates.

Global markets were lifted after Trump administration’s plan to rescind some Biden-era curbs on chipmakers and news of a trade agreement with Britain, which followed news that US and Chinese officials will meet this weekend to discuss trade. Investors are waiting to see if crippling levies mooted by Trump will be negotiated down, averting lasting damage to economic growth and corporate profits. 

"The fear has been of higher prices, company profit margins being squeezed, and the economy going into recession as a result of higher tariffs,"  said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale. “If you start unwinding all of that, it’s got to be bullish for risk assets.” 

In the UK, gilt yields rose about five basis points, reversing an earlier slide, after the BOE reduced interest rates to 4.25% in a decision made before the US trade deal was announced. However, the BOE upgraded its annual growth forecast for 2025 while two officials voted not to cut rates this time due to inflation risks and a recent easing in financial conditions. 

For Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, the split BOE vote “goes to show the scale of the uncertainty that exists amongst a key group, namely the actual setters of policy. It’s going to be difficult to make a call on future policy on the back of that.”

Meanwhile, while there was little international fallout from the conflict between India and Pakistan, investors were monitoring signs of escalation. Pakistan’s main equity index shed as much as 8.8%, while India’s Nifty 50 Index lost as much as 01.1%. The Indian rupee slid over 1% against the dollar.

The trade headlines also lifted Europe’s Stoxx 600 index by about 0.9%, as tech, industrials and travel are the best-performing European sectors. Chip stocks including ASML were among the top gainers. Siemens Energy rose after it said the impact of tariffs was going to be limited, while Danish container giant Maersk declines after cutting its forecast amid trade war. Britain’s domestically focused FTSE 250 index rose to a two-month high. Here are the biggest winners:

• Siemens Energy shares gain as much as 4.1%, touching a record high, shrugging off US tariff chaos and saying the effect of import duties on its bottom line will be small.
• Adecco shares gain as much as 4.3% after the Swiss staffing company posts a top line beat in a mixed set of first-quarter results.
• Puma shares jump as much as 6%, hitting their highest level in almost two months, after the sportswear retailer delivered a small sales beat and reiterated its guidance for the year.
• Rheinmetall shares rise as much as 2% to a new record after the German firm’s weapon and ammunition sales for the first quarter beat the average analyst estimate.
• Novonesis shares rise as much as 4.3% after the Danish biotechnology firm reported strong results for the first quarter, including a small beat on organic sales growth.
• J. Martins shares advance as much as 6.3% after retailer maintained Ebitda margin for 1Q even as an unfavorable calendar with a late Easter slowed same-store sales in Poland.
• Argenx shares drop as much as 9.5% after the biotech firm reported Vyvgart sales for the first quarter that were slightly weaker than JPMorgan analysts had been expecting.
• Maersk shares fall 2.2% after the Danish container giant’s earnings beat was overshadowed by it cutting its forecast for the global transport market rattled by trade war.
• Zurich Insurance shares slip as much as 1.4% as Switzerland’s largest insurer cautioned that prices are moderating in Europe, the Middle East and Africa and North America even as it reported solid results for the first quarter.
• Amadeus shares fall as much as 3.6% after the travel IT services provider reported sales and Ebitda that missed estimates.
• Centrica shares drop as much as 8%, the most since last July, after analysts warned the British Gas-owner’s AGM update suggests there is downside risks to consensus numbers for this year.
• Zealand Pharma shares fall as much as 5.9% after the Danish drug developer released results for the first quarter which Van Lanschot Kempen analysts said were “uneventful.”

Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia declined, on course to end a four-day run of gains, as earnings caution in Japan outweighed optimism over signs of easing trade tensions.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%, reversing an earlier 0.3% gain. Japanese firms Nintendo Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. were among the biggest drags, with the carmaker expecting a $1.3 billion profit hit in just two months on tariffs. Nintendo projected weaker-than-expected initial sales of the Switch 2. Trading was halted in Pakistan after its benchmark KSE-30 Index slumped on intensifying military conflict with India. Indian stocks were slightly lower. Markets were in the green in Hong Kong, China and South Korea as signs of progress in trade negotiations supported sentiment. The confirmation of US-China trade talks starting this weekend, and Thursday’s report that the US is about to announce a deal with the United Kingdom, boosted optimism that the global tariff war has entered a de-escalation stage. Foreign investor flows into Asian stocks excluding China and Japan reached $3 billion so far this week, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.  

In FX, the dollar was 0.2% higher against a basket of peers, benefiting also from the Federal Reserve’s signal that it’s in no hurry to ease monetary policy. The Fed held interest rates steady as expected on Wednesday, and warned that higher tariffs could raise inflation and unemployment. The pound climbed after the Bank of England cut interest rates as expected, but stuck to signaling “gradual and careful” moves in the coming months. 

In rates, treasuries are cheaper across the curve as US stock futures rally; rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yields rose about five basis points as traders trimmed the odds of a July cut to around 80%. US yields are 3bp-4bp higher across maturities with intermediate tenors leading losses, flattening 5s30s spread by 1.5bp and unwinding a portion of Wednesday’s steepening move. 10-year at 4.30%, just off day’s high. Supply also a factor, with an auction of 30-year bonds ahead at 1pm New York time. Gilt futures fell to session lows after Bank of England cut rates to 4.25% as expected in a three-way split. UK front-end yields cheaper by about 5bp, flattening the gilt curve after the BOE rate decision. The week’s Treasury auction cycle concludes with $25 billion 30-year new issue, following strong demand for 10-year notes Tuesday. WI 30-year yield near ~4.795% is about 2bp richer than last month’s, which stopped through by 2.6bp. Investors will now monitor weekly jobless data, which is expected to show claims slipped marginally in the latest week to 230,000. 

In commodities, oil climbs 1.4% higher to near $58.86. Bitcoin rose toward the $100,000 mark for the first time since February. Spot gold falls about $10 to near $3,350/oz. 

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar includes 1Q nonfarm productivity and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), March wholesale inventories (10am) and April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +1.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +1.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
• DAX +1.2%
• CAC 40 +0.8%
• 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis points at 4.31%
• VIX -1 points at 22.52
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1225.78
• euro little changed at $1.129
• WTI crude +1% at $58.67/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Trump is expected to announce a framework of a trade deal with the U.K. on Thursday, the first in what the White House hopes is a series of trade agreements since it imposed tariffs against allies and adversaries. Trump said there would be a press conference in the Oval Office at 10 a.m. WSJ
• Pakistan said it shot down 12 drones from India that had killed one civilian and injured four soldiers. India’s rupee weakened 1%. BBG
• Ukraine has discussed ways to pressure Russia into agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire with U.S., French, British and German senior officials, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's top aide said on Thursday, part of a flurry of diplomacy to try to end the war. RTRS
• US President Trump's big announcement is regarding a Medicare drug plan, according to Politico.
• US President Trump posted "We are making great progress on “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill.” Our Economy is doing well, but it’s going to BOOM in a way never seen before. We are going to do NO TAX ON TIPS, NO TAX ON SENIORS’ SOCIAL SECURITY, NO TAX ON OVERTIME, and much more. It will be the biggest Tax Cut for Middle and Working Class Americans by far, and it is time for Main Street to WIN. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"
• White House said the Treasury and Commerce departments have formulated plans for a sovereign wealth fund, but no final decisions have yet been made.
• China is considering largely scrapping its pre-sales model for homes, people familiar said. The move aims to address the country’s housing crisis, but may exacerbate cash flow pressure on developers. BBG
• The BOJ can’t ignore the potential downside risks to prices stemming from US tariffs, Kazuo Ueda said. BBG
• The Bank of England cut interest rates by a quarter point to 4.25% as Donald Trump’s global trade war weighs on UK growth, in a decision that split senior officials into three groups and was made before the US President hinted at an imminent deal to lower tariffs on British exports. BBG
• Brazil’s central bank raised its interest rate by a half-point to 14.75%, the highest level since 2006. Policymakers kept their options open for either another hike or a pause at its next decision. BBG
• GOOGL +2% ... Google issued statement overnight, responding to AAPL's intraday comments on search traffic: We continue to see overall query growth in Search. That includes an increase in total queries coming from Apple’s devices and platforms. More generally, as we enhance Search with new features, people are seeing that Google Search is more useful for more of their queries — and they’re accessing it for new things and in new ways, whether from browsers or the Google app, using their voice or Google Lens. We’re excited to continue this innovation and look forward to sharing more at Google I/O."
• Trump tapped Casey Means to be the next US surgeon general after his prior nominee was withdrawn. The health app founder is a vocal critic of the pharmaceutical industry and Big Food. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher amid some trade optimism and following the mildly positive handover from Wall St where price action was choppy in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting as the Fed kept the FFR at 4.25-4.50%, as expected, and noted that risks to the economic outlook increased further, while Fed Chair Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach and ruled out a pre-emptive cut during the presser. ASX 200 marginally gained amid strength in gold miners, industrials and tech but with the upside capped by weakness in the top-weighted financial sector after Big 4 bank ANZ's earnings. Nikkei 225 was underpinned by recent currency weakness and trade deal optimism, although a return to the 37,000 level remained elusive. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp remained positive following the previous day's PBoC's policy loosening, but with further upside in the mainland limited after recent comments from US President Trump, who was unwilling to lower tariffs to get China to the table.

Top Asian News

• HKMA maintained its base rate at 4.75%, as expected, in lockstep with the Fed.
• BoJ Minutes from the March 18th-19th Meeting reiterated they are to raise rates if the economic outlook is realised and a member said it's appropriate to pay close attention to the new US policies and their impact on the global economy. Furthermore, a member said the BoJ would need to be particularly cautious when considering the timing of the next rate hike as downside risks stemming from US policies had rapidly heightened, while a member said that even with heightened uncertainties, it did not warrant BoJ to be always cautious and the BoJ may face a situation where it should act decisively.
• China is weighing housing market overhaul to curb pre-sales, via Bloomberg

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened mostly firmer and have traded with an upward bias throughout the European morning. European sectors are mixed; Tech takes the top spot, joined closely by Industrials whilst Healthcare lags. Tech benefits from post-earning strength in Infineon (+3%) - despite missing on headline metrics and highlighting that it sees 2025 rev. slightly lower Y/Y due to tariff impact. US equity futures (ES +0.8%, NQ +1%) are broadly in the green, in-fitting with the broader risk tone as markets await Trump’s trade announcement.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer is expected to promise on Thursday that his government will deliver a defence dividend for voters, framing an increase in military spending forced by a US shift away from underwriting Europe's security, as an economic opportunity, according to Reuters.
• Sky's Coates says his sources are confirming that the US-UK trade deal claims are correct. Will be a "heads of terms" agreement, rather than a full deal, but substantive.
• NIESR lowered its UK 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.5%, while it said Chancellor Reeves looks set to miss her budget targets again, partly due to the economic impact from her tax increase on employers, which raises the prospect of more tax hikes.
• Swedish Riksbank Rate 2.25% vs. Exp. 2.25% (Prev. 2.25%); it is somewhat more probable that inflation will be lower than that it will be higher than in the March forecast. This could suggest a slight easing of monetary policy going forward.
• Norges Bank Key Policy Rate 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.5%); outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025.

FX

• DXY saw an uptick in early European trade, taking the index back above the 100 threshold; no obvious driver was seen behind the move at the time. Last night's FOMC policy announcement had little follow-through into the USD with the Fed keeping rates unchanged as expected whilst noting that risks to the economic outlook increased further and risks to both sides of the mandate have risen. From a trade perspective, attention is on the details of the expected upcoming UK trade deal announcement whereby the agreement will be eyed as a proxy of what is to come. DXY has hit a new high for the week at 100.20.
• EUR is fractionally softer vs. the USD with Eurozone newsflow on the light side. On the trade front, the EU is set to announce today a provisional list of tariffs against the US which will be enforced if talks with the US fail. EUR/USD has reverted back to a 1.12 handle and hit a fresh low for the week at 1.1271.
• JPY is softer on account of the positive risk sentiment which has stemmed from hopes on the trade front. BoJ Minutes was a non-event given it recaps the March meeting. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 144.51.
• GBP is a touch softer vs. the USD but to a lesser degree than peers amid increased optimism on the trade front with the US and UK expected to announce a trade deal later today. That being said, it is worth noting that the announcement is set to be a "heads of terms" agreement, rather than a full deal, but substantive, according to Sky News. Attention now turns to Thursday's BoE meeting, which is expected to see policymakers deliver a 25bps rate cut; focus will be on any potential tweaks to guidance. Morgan Stanley expects the "gradual and careful" language to be removed to provide the MPC “space to accelerate cuts if needed”.
• Antipodeans are both slightly softer vs. the USD with domestic newsflow from Australia and New Zealand on the light side.
• SEK is a touch softer in the aftermath of the Riksbank policy announcement which saw the central bank stand pat on rates as expected. The accompanying statement noted that "it is somewhat more probable that inflation will be lower than that it will be higher than in the March forecast", adding that this "could suggest a slight easing of monetary policy going forward". However, the Bank did stress the uncertainty surrounding the outlook. EUR/SEK has been as high as 10.9424 but is yet to approach its 50DMA to the upside at 10.9491.
• Little follow-through seen in the NOK after the Norges bank stood pat on rates at 4.5% as expected. The accompanying statement noted that restrictive monetary policy is still needed, adding that, if the policy rate is lowered prematurely, prices may continue to rise rapidly. However, the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.2073 vs exp. 7.2385 (Prev. 7.2005).
• Brazil Central Bank hiked the Selic rate by 50bps to 14.75%, as expected with the decision unanimous, while it stated that additional caution is needed for the next meeting and the scenario also demands flexibility to incorporate data that impact the inflation outlook. Furthermore, the BCB said it will remain vigilant and the calibration of the appropriate tightening of the monetary policy will continue to be guided by the objective of bringing inflation back to the target in the relevant horizon.

Fixed Income

• The Fed's decision to keep rates steady (as expected) and Powell stressing a wait-and-see approach to policy, sparked some two-way action in USTs - before then extending a little lower into the APAC session. As for today, US President Trump saying he will announce a trade deal (with the UK) today has managed to boost the risk tone. USTs currently a touch into the red but above yesterday’s low in a 111-11 to 111-19 band. Ahead, weekly jobless claims are due before the NY Fed SCE, in March it showed an increase in near-term inflation expectations and a slight moderation further out alongside an expected deterioration in the labour market. A 30yr auction is also scheduled.
• Gilts opened bang on the unchanged mark and despite an initial slip to a 93.35 low, comfortably above Wednesday’s 92.79 base, the benchmark has since been on a gentle grind higher despite the constructive risk tone as participants prepared for upcoming UK-specific risk events. Holding around its 93.54 session peak. Awaiting Trump’s 15:00BST press conference for details on a trade announcement which has since been confirmed to be between the US and UK. But before that, attention will be on the BoE where rates are expected to be cut by 25bps in a unanimous decision though the magnitude could be subject to dovish dissent.
• Bunds are softer, in-fitting with USTs and the constructive risk tone. In contrast to the US and UK, newsflow for the bloc has been a little lighter. No move to a surprisingly strong set of German Industrial data for March this morning. At the low end of a 131.35 to 131.65 band.
• Spain sells EUR 6.2bln vs. Exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2030, 4.00% 2054 Bono & EUR 0.672bln vs. Exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 1.00% 2030 I/L

Commodities

• Crude is bid, but off best as the USD fights back in the European morning (see FX). Currently holding around the mid-point of today’s parameters which are just under USD 1/bbl in size and in very familiar levels from the last few days/weeks. At best, WTI and Brent got just above the USD 58.50/bbl and USD 61.50/bbl marks but failed to make any further ground as the DXY picked back up above the 100.00 mark.
• Gold is under pressure as the risk tone is supported by Trump’s trade announcement, an event we now know relates to the UK, and also the discussed recovery in the USD. Currently trading in a USD 3,320.68-3,414.50/oz range.
• Copper has been rangebound since APAC trade after the pressure seen on Wednesday with 3M LME Copper basically holding at the bottom end of yesterday’s USD 9.36-9.47k band.
• PBoC is reportedly to allow local lenders to purchase more USD to fund increased gold import quotas, via Reuters citing sources.
• Citi revises its 0-3 month point price for Brent to USD 55/bbl (prev. 60/bbl). No US-Iran deal and escalatory action could see prices return to USD +70/bbl.
• Iraq sets the June Barah medium crude OSP to Asia at plus USD 0.45/bbl to Oman/Dubai average, Europe minus USD 3.20bbl vs. dated Brent, North and South America minus USD 0.75/bbl vs. ASCI, according to SOMO.
• Kazakhstan (Apr) oil and condensate daily output +6.5% to 277k tons, according to Interfax; production in May seen at similar levels to April.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: 1Q P Nonfarm Productivity, est. -0.75%, prior 1.5%
• 8:30 am: 1Q P Unit Labor Costs, est. 5.1%, prior 2.2%
• 8:30 am: May 3 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230k, prior 241k
• 8:30 am: Apr 26 Continuing Claims, est. 1895k, prior 1916k
• 10:00 am: Mar F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In a Trump 2.0 world it often seems like the news flow doesn't really get going until after the US market closes and today is another example of that as overnight Mr Trump has teased that a "major trade deal" will be announced today at 10am DC time (15:00 BST). This must be the very big announcement he flagged on Tuesday. The media are all lining up behind the deal being with the UK. Given that full trade deals take years to negotiate, this will likely be a framework and it will be interesting to see whether the 10% baseline tariff stays as that will provide an important template for negotiations with other countries and a good guide to the long-term tariff strategy of the US.

Asian equity markets and European/UK futures are responding positively to the news that comes a couple of days before trade talks between Washington and Beijing over the weekend. Across the region, the Hang Seng (+1.10%) is leading gains with the CSI (+0.75%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.38%) also higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.28%), the KOSPI (+0.49%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.21%) are also edging higher. S&P 500 (+0.84%) and NASDAQ 100 (+1.16%) futures are building on a strong close that we will discuss below. Euro Stoxx futures are +0.80% and FTSE futures +0.75%. Sterling is around half a percent higher.

This news has slightly overshadowed the Fed last night, where as widely expected, the FOMC kept the fed funds rate on hold for a third meeting running at 4.25-4.50%, while sticking to a patient tone amid heightened uncertainty. The prepared statement noted that uncertainty had “increased further” as risks of both “higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen”. In the press conference Chair Powell acknowledged opposing pressures on its dual mandate stemming from larger-than-expected tariffs announced so far and offered little guidance on the policy path ahead. Powell emphasized the elevated uncertainty but also noted that the economy remains resilient and repeated that policy is well positioned to respond, while pushing back on the idea of pre-emptive rate cuts. Our US economists continue to expect the next rate cut to come in December, with risks tilted towards earlier cuts if unemployment rises more sharply. See their full reaction here.

Rates initially saw a moderate rally following the Fed decision, but this then reversed as Powell emphasised a wait-and-see approach. The next rate cut is now 80% priced by the July meeting while the amount of Fed cuts priced by December declined by -3.1bps yesterday to 78bps, though this move had already played out pre-FOMC. 2yr Treasury yields were little changed (-0.6bps to 3.78%), while 10yr yields declined -2.6bps to 4.27%. This morning in Asia, Treasury yields have reversed higher again with 2yr (+2.3bps) and 10yr (+1.9bps) yields settling at around 3.80% and 4.29% respectively as we go to print.

Equities saw a muted response to the Fed decision, but the S&P 500 managed to post a +0.43% gain by the close thanks to a late rally following a Bloomberg report that the Trump administration is planning to rescind Biden-era AI chip curbs as part of a broader move to revise semiconductor trade restrictions. The reporting helped the Philadelphia semiconductor index rise +1.74% on the day, with Nvidia +3.10% higher.

However, the overall Mag-7 underperformed (-0.26%) as Alphabet (-7.26%) and Apple (-1.14%) lost ground following comments by a senior Apple executive that the company was “actively looking at” revamping its Safari web browser to focus on AI-powered search engines. The comments came amid a DoJ lawsuit against Alphabet that could threaten the companies’ partnership that makes Google the default offering in Apple’s browser. In addition to highlighting the anti-trust cases against big tech, the news is a reminder that while the Mag-7 stocks have benefited immensely from AI optimism, their existing business models also face risks from AI-driven disruption.

Ahead of the Fed’s decision, European markets experienced a risk-off move, with the STOXX 600 (-0.54%) posting its biggest decline in four weeks. The moves occurred across the continent, and even the FTSE 100 (-0.44%) moved lower, ending its record winning run of 16 consecutive gains. A remarkable stat. Let's see what today's trade deal does for the UK. Otherwise, France’s CAC 40 (-0.91%) saw a particular underperformance, losing ground for a third day running, and Germany’s DAX was down -0.58%. And the risk-off tone was echoed on the rates side, as yields on 10yr bunds (-6.6bps), OATs (-6.4bps) and BTPs (-7.9bps) all took a sharp turn lower. The moves also got a boost from the latest decline in oil prices, with Brent crude down -1.66% on the day to $61.12/bbl. The peak this year was $82.03/bbl on January 15.

Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight today, as the Bank of England are announcing their own policy decision. It’s widely expected they’ll deliver a 25bp cut today, which would take the Bank Rate down to 4.25%, and continue the pattern of quarterly rate cuts that we’ve had since August. As with the Fed, it’s their first decision since Liberation Day, so all eyes will be on the new forecasts, and our UK economist thinks that meaningful changes are likely. He expects them to cut their growth projections as the unfolding trade shock hits GDP. And he also sees the inflation forecasts being revised lower thanks to stronger sterling and lower energy prices.

Finally on the geopolitical side, there’s been increasing market attention on the situation between India and Pakistan. In terms of the latest, Pakistan said yesterday that they would retaliate against India’s air strikes, and Pakistan’s KSE-100 equity index closed -3.02% lower. By contrast, Indian equities have been much less affected, and the NIFTY 50 index was up +0.14%. This morning, the NIFTY 50 (-0.04%) is fairly flat. The situation has raised fears about an escalation between the two counties, and it represents another example of how the Global South is likely to prove increasingly important for the global backdrop.

To the day ahead, and one of the main highlights will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision, along with the subsequent press conference with Governor Bailey. Separately, the Bank of Canada will release their Financial Stability Report, and we’ll hear from Governor Macklem too. Elsewhere, US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, as well as nonfarm productivity for Q1.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/08/2025 - 08:24

Goodwill Gesture Before Trade Talks? China Airlines Places Order For 14 Boeing 777 Jets

Just two days before U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet his Chinese counterpart for the first round of trade talks in Switzerland, Boeing revealed a new order for widebody jets from a Chinese state-owned airline—presumably a calculated gesture of goodwill ahead of negotiations. 

Boeing announced that China Airlines has become the "newest 777X customer with an order for 10 777-9 passenger and four 777-8 Freighter airplanes." 

"In addition to the firm order, which was booked in March 2025 and was posted as unidentified on Boeing's orders and deliveries website, the airline has options to purchase five 777-9s and four 777-8 Freighters," the plane manufacturer said, adding, "With this order, China Airlines joins an exclusive group of global airlines that have ordered the passenger and freighter variants of the 777X family."

About one month ago, when the U.S. and China unleashed a tit-for-tat tariff war, eventually placing 145% levies on Chinese goods entering the U.S. and a 125% rate on U.S. goods entering China, Juneyao Airlines delayed the delivery of a widebody aircraft from Boeing. This delay was suspected to be part of Beijing's non-tariff countermeasures (including limiting Hollywood film imports, etc...). 

Boeing's order announcement comes days before Bessent, who has become the point person in trade negotiations, will sit down with top Chinese trade negotiators in Switzerland to begin the first round of a fair trade.

"The negotiations will begin on Saturday," Bessent said in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

During a Fox News interview, Bessent emphasized: "We don't want to decouple" with China, adding, "What we want is fair trade."

The key takeaway: China Airlines' order of Boeing 777Xs looks like a kind gesture of goodwill ahead of this weekend's trade talks. Though the order was officially booked in March, Beijing could have easily delayed or canceled it if preliminary trade talks (at U.S. Treasury) were headed in the wrong direction. Instead, the timing suggests momentum may be building toward a breakthrough.

Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius recently outlined what a potential breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks might entail.

All good news so far... 

 

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/08/2025 - 08:05

India Is China 2.0

Authored by Spencer Morrison via American Greatness,

India is taking President Trump up on his offer for reciprocal free trade, proposing zero-for-zero tariffs on specific goods like pharmaceuticals, steel, and automobile components.

This has electrified President Trump’s base—the reciprocal tariffs are working! India’s coming to the table!

Sorry to burst your bubble: America will not benefit from free trade with India—or any other Third World country. 

Why? 

One word:

Externalities.

President Trump would be wise to remember that tariffs are not about moving factories from China to India—they’re about moving factories back to America.

Hunting Unicorns

Real international free trade—much like real communism—has never been tried. Why? It’s impossible.

The reality that economists & libertarians refuse to recognize is that different countries are different. And not just different in a nominal sense—different in real and practical ways that prevent economic integration.

First, America and India have different levels of economic development that cannot be reconciled without seriously rebalancing the factors of production.

The average annual wage in America is $63,000, while the average annual wage in India is just $2,500—the average American earns 25x more than the average Indian. Labor is often the largest input cost for making products, accounting for approximately 30–35% of the cost of American manufacturing—and it’s an even higher proportion in many service industries.

If America and India traded freely, India’s low wages would undercut America’s labor market—either Americans will need to accept lower wages domestically, or the factories will relocate to India to take advantage of dirt-cheap labor.

How do we know this will happen? The exact same thing happened after China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001.

In 2001, the average annual wage in America was $30,846, while the average annual wage in China was just $1,127—the average American earned 27x more than the average Chinese. What happened when American workers competed with Chinese workers? American factories moved to China, and wages stagnated.

The pace of offshoring was harrowing. Since 2001, more than 60,000 factories have moved abroad, killing over 5 million manufacturing jobs. This has decimated America’s industrial capacity and hollowed out local communities. And no, robots and automation had nothing to do with this process, in case you were curious.

In fact, the process has been going on even earlier than 2001. America has run global trade deficits every year since 1974. The cumulative value of these deficits is $25 trillion, after adjusting for inflation. This has decoupled wages for American workers from their productivity—even though workers produce more value, they aren’t paid for it. Why? Because the wages are suppressed by competition with cheap foreign labor.

Notice how the price differentials respecting America and China in 2001 and America and India today are almost identical. Why do we think the result will be different this time around?

From India With Love

In addition to obvious market asymmetries like the price of labor, the cost of doing business in India is lower because of externalities. Essentially, there are many costs of doing business in America that are baked into the final price of a product, such as the costs of environmental remediation, labor standards, and upholding higher quality control standards.

These costs are not baked into the price of Indian products. Instead, the costs of pollution or abusive labor standards are externalized to the environment or society at large.

But of course, we always pay the piper. Rather than pay 10 cents more per spatula, we live with plastic trash from India floating up on American beaches or mercury poisoning the fish we eat—we may not pay the price at the store, but we certainly pay it with our health and with our soul—all for the sake of “cheap” goods.

Often, foreign goods are not actually cheaper than American goods: they simply do not reflect the full cost of production. For this reason, America cannot produce goods as cheaply as China or India—not unless we are willing to destroy our standard of living—not unless we are willing to sacrifice our environment—not unless we are willing to outlaw morality in the name of business and sell our very soul for profit.

No. Reducing the cost of business to compete with India on price is simply not desirable. Nor is it possible.

Remember, even if America allowed manufacturers to externalize all costs, our economy is structurally distinct from India’s. In America, private corporations dominate the market. Although these corporations are large, and many are owned by the same few investment firms—like BlackRock—they remain private entities.

This is not the case in India, where the state is crafting a cohesive industrial policy designed to industrialize the country. Part of this policy appears to be to piggyback on America’s consumer market when it comes to strategic industries, like steel or pharmaceuticals—just like China.

Ultimately, the only way to protect America’s market from asymmetrical competition from countries like China or India is to price in these externalities by imposing protective tariffs. This is discussed in detail in my book Reshore: How Tariffs Will Bring Our Jobs Home & Revive the American Dream.

The Shock and Awe of Reality

Different countries have different levels of economic development, legal systems, tax structures, histories, geographies, languages, cultural and business norms, and demographics. All of these differences can create market asymmetries that are simply not relevant domestically.

At best, free traders can reduce tariffs and other visible trade barriers, like taxes, transportation costs, and legal disharmonies. However, they cannot uproot the sort of cultural norms and political corruption that make doing business in India—or China, or Mexico, or Italy—different than doing business in America.

Ultimately, America’s interests are not served by moving industry from China to India. The industry needs to come home. Let’s not make the same mistake with India that we did with China—say no to free trade and raise the tariff walls.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/08/2025 - 06:30

First-Time Homebuyers Face Shifting Market, Stress, Struggles: New Survey

A new survey of 1,000 first-time homebuyers reveals the complex and often stressful reality of entering the housing market. Rising housing prices, high interest rates, and market uncertainty have created a tough environment for newcomers, many of whom must stretch their budgets or make lifestyle compromises just to get a foot in the door, according to a new survey from Raleigh Realty. 

The survey shows a clear generational divide in homeownership. The majority of first-time buyers are Gen X or Baby Boomers, while only 4% are Gen Z. For younger adults, especially Gen Z, the barriers to entry remain high. Those who do purchase tend to be higher earners—63% of Gen Z buyers make more than $75,000 annually. In contrast, many Baby Boomers bought their first homes with more modest incomes, suggesting that affordability has deteriorated over time.

Income still plays a central role in homeownership access. While many first-time buyers earn between $50,000 and $75,000, a significant portion earn less, especially among older generations. Gen Z stands out again here, with relatively few buyers earning below $50,000. This trend reflects broader concerns among younger people about financial stability, shaped by growing up during the 2008 housing crash and entering adulthood amid pandemic-era economic turmoil.

Flexible work has had a strong impact on home buying decisions. A third of first-time buyers work remotely or in hybrid roles, and this flexibility often enables them to relocate in search of more affordable housing or better quality of life. Gen Z leads in remote work adoption, with more than 40% working fully in-office, while Baby Boomers represent the largest group not in traditional employment, instead relying on retirement income or alternative sources.

Despite media narratives about falling housing prices, very few first-time buyers made purchases in the last year. Most bought their homes three to four years ago, during or shortly after the pandemic housing surge. The steep drop in 2023 home sales reflects wider economic conditions, including high inflation and reduced affordability.

Single-family homes remain the overwhelming favorite among first-time buyers, with 90% choosing this option regardless of income. Even those earning less than $50,000 opted for standalone houses over condos or multi-family units. However, most chose existing homes rather than new construction, likely due to cost or availability.

For many, the journey into homeownership was taken solo or as a couple. Half of respondents were married, while 40% were single. Only a small percentage bought homes with friends, siblings, or unmarried partners. These results reflect traditional patterns of household formation and financial independence.

Most buyers moved quickly once they started looking for a home. About 70% closed within six months, and 35% found a home in three months or less. But speed didn’t reduce stress—90% of first-time buyers found the process difficult. The top source of stress was affordability, which overwhelmed concerns about mortgage approval, taxes, or maintenance.

Financial strain led many buyers to make compromises. Nearly one in five settled for smaller homes, less desirable locations, or properties needing repairs. Stretching the budget was another common trade-off. Baby Boomers were most willing to go over budget, while Gen Z was most likely to compromise on location.

Concerns about job stability were widespread. More than half of buyers worried they wouldn't be able to make mortgage payments if they lost their job, with the highest anxiety levels among Gen Z and Millennials. Baby Boomers, by contrast, were more confident in their financial resilience, likely due to retirement savings or paid-off homes.

Contrary to popular belief, most first-time buyers didn’t receive financial help. About 73% paid for their homes without family assistance. Among those who did receive help, contributions varied, with 52% getting $10,000 or less. Just 16% received over $20,000, and only a small share received help from government programs.

The Raleigh Realty report says that even though mortgage approval is a common concern, most buyers didn’t apply for financing until after they began house hunting. Over half only applied to one lender. The majority selected lenders based on interest rates, while others went with banks they already used or those recommended by real estate agents.

Despite all these financial concerns, most buyers reported feeling satisfied after purchasing. While only 12% said they bought their dream home, 73% felt that homeownership brought them closer to the American dream. Lower-income buyers tended to report the highest satisfaction, possibly because expectations were more modest.

Few first-time buyers plan to move soon. Only 9% expect to sell their homes within five years, while nearly half intend to stay for at least a decade. A long-term mindset seems to dominate, with 30% planning to remain for 20 years or more.

Home improvement is a common post-purchase goal. Around 60% of buyers expect to invest $1,000 to $10,000 in upgrades during the first year, and nearly one in three plan to spend even more. These projects are seen as essential for adding value or addressing compromises made during the purchase process.

Younger buyers are also more likely to explore income-generating strategies. Around 40% of Gen Z and 30% of Millennials have taken on a second job to manage homeownership costs. Many also rent out parts of their property or use short-term rental platforms. In contrast, only 14% of Baby Boomers supplement their income in this way.

Emergency savings are more common among first-time buyers than the general population. Around 79% reported having some form of savings, with most holding over $1,000 and 17% saving more than $20,000. Younger buyers may be more motivated to save due to fears about job loss or economic instability.

In summary the full survey results show that while homeownership is still viewed as an important milestone, today’s first-time buyers are navigating a complex and stressful landscape. Income, generational experience, and work flexibility all influence outcomes, and most buyers are willing to make sacrifices to achieve the goal of owning a home.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/08/2025 - 05:45

Thousands Of Unexploded Israeli Bombs In Gaza Provide Hamas With Weapons

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute

Hamas is using some of the thousands of unexploded bombs that now litter Gaza as weapons against the invading Israeli forces. Most Hamas munitions are created from cannibalizing dud bombs dropped by Israel.

According to Israeli media, the country’s military estimated early this year that there were at least 3,000 unexploded bombs in Gaza. An Israeli officer explained that the munitions will be used by Hamas. “The situation we’ve reached is not normal. Tens of tons of explosives are lying in Gaza, waiting for Hamas,” they said.

The true number of unexploded bombs could be higher. The IDF has dropped about 40,000 bombs on Gaza since October 7, 2023. A typical dud rate is 10%; however, the Israeli military still uses some Vietnam-era missiles that could push the rate of bombs that fail to explode to 20%.

Haaretz estimates that the value of unexploded bombs is in the tens of millions of dollars.

A former Israeli official explained to The New York Times in January 2024 that Hamas makes most of their munitions from bombs dropped on Gaza that do not detonate.

“Unexploded ordnance is a main source of explosives for Hamas,” said Michael Cardash, the former deputy head of the Israeli National Police Bomb Disposal Division and an Israeli police consultant. “They are cutting open bombs from Israel, artillery bombs from Israel, and a lot of them are being used, of course, and repurposed for their explosives and rockets.”

The armed wing of Hamas, the al-Qassam Brigades, has teams trained to recover the unexploded bombs, including 2,000-pound weapons. It also has the ability to break down the Israeli munitions and repurpose them as rockets, RPGs, and IEDs.

Salvaged Israeli bombs have been turned into lethal munitions by Hamas since October 7. In December 2023, remnants of an unexploded Israeli bomb were used to kill 10 soldiers, while Haaretz reports that in January, an IDF tank was destroyed by a Hamas IED created from an undetonated bomb.

While Israel has laid waste to the Strip over the past 19 months, US and Israeli intelligence have acknowledged that Hamas has retained most of its tunnel network and has recruited at least as many fighters as it has lost.

Tel Aviv recently announced a mass call-up of its reserve forces and expanded military operations in Gaza to the full occupation of the territory.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/08/2025 - 05:00

Another US Fighter Jet Destroyed In The Red Sea

Another $60 million US Navy fighter jet has been 'lost at sea' - this time during a crash landing as the aircraft was trying to land on the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier.

This marks the second F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet which has been destroyed aboard the Truman in just over a week.

US Navy image

The first Super Hornet reportedly fell overboard late last month while the Truma took a hard turn amid inbound Houthi fire, in a strange incident which could just be a Pentagon cover story.

But as for the second incident, first reported Tuesday night (local US time), CNN writes that "It is not entirely clear what happened yet, as the investigation is ongoing, but two of the people said there was some kind of arrestment failure as the jet was trying to land on the carrier and the pilot and weapons systems officer had to eject."

"They were recovered by a rescue helicopter and are both alive, but they suffered minor injuries, one of the people said," the report continues.

Amid the apparent systems failure the aircraft went overboard. "The arrestment failed, causing the aircraft to go overboard. Both aviators safely ejected and were rescued by a helicopter assigned to Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron 11," a defense official described. "The aviators were evaluated by medical personnel and assessed to have minor injuries. No flight deck personnel were injured."

US Naval Institute News further details:

It’s unclear if the arresting wire that stops the aircraft during the carrier landing failed or if the hook on the fighter didn’t catch the wire. It’s also unclear whether the incident fouled the flight deck, interrupting flight operations. As of Tuesday evening, Truman was fully operational, the defense official said.

In total three jets have been recently lost in the Red Sea:

And in December, the missile cruiser USS Gettysburg, part of the Truman's strike group, shot down a Super Hornet in what the US military described as "an apparent case of friendly fire." Both aviators ejected safely.

The Houthis had since Red Sea hostilities were renewed in mid-March (in the wake of the Gaza ceasefire collapsing), sent drones and missiles against US warships off Yemen's coast, particularly the Truman carrier.

This week Israel has joined the US-led coalition's bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. Israeli jets obliterated Sanaa International Airport, in an operation described as retaliation for the Sunday ballistic missile attack on Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv.

The timing of this second jet loss incident is interesting, given it was revealed the same day that President Donald Trump announced the US would stop strikes against the Houthis.

1/2
The USS Harry S. Truman appears to have performed an emergency turn on April 27th to evade a large-scale Yemeni missile and drone attack. The maneuver was so severe it could have caused the loss of the Super Hornet.

If true, this indicates that: pic.twitter.com/MMIDOpcZdw

— Alan (@Alan39982121) April 28, 2025

The Houthis have confirmed there will be a ceasefire in the Red Sea with the United States. The deal was mediated by Oman, and this looks like a 'mission accomplished' moment for Trump where he's ready to grasp onto a way out of the quagmire the US found itself in. Wisely, he is getting the US out, and Israel appears to be stepping up in terms of its own defense.

Mideast war correspondent Elijah Magnier has concluded, "The US intelligently stopped the bombing on Yemen due to the lack of objectives, the empty outcome and the high cost versus no gain." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/08/2025 - 04:15

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.