China 'Made A Real Mistake' With Rare Earth Threats: Bessent

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China “made a real mistake” by threatening to restrict exports of rare earth minerals, adding that Beijing’s move has jolted the United States and its allies to fast-track efforts to secure new sources within the next two years.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank annual meetings, in Washington, on Oct. 15, 2025. Brendan Smialowski/AFP

In an interview published by the Financial Times on Oct. 31, Bessent said China had drawn global attention to its willingness to use critical minerals as leverage.

“China has alerted everyone to the danger. They’ve made a real mistake,” he told the newspaper.

“It’s one thing to put the gun on the table. It’s another thing to fire shots in the air.”

China imposed new controls on the export of technologies and materials linked to rare earth elements in early October. The restrictions rattled markets, upended supply chains, and became a major sticking point in trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

Following this week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea, China announced that it would suspend the restrictions for one year.

“I think the Chinese leadership were slightly alarmed by the global backlash to their export controls,” Bessent told the Financial Times.

The Treasury chief said the United States and China had reached an understanding that would stabilize relations in the near term, while expressing the conviction that Beijing’s influence in the critical minerals sector would quickly fade.

“There’s an agreement that, ceteris paribus, we have reached an equilibrium, and we can operate within that equilibrium over the next 12 months,” Bessent said.

“I don’t think they’re able to do it now because we have offsetting measures.”

He said that China’s ability to use rare earths as a coercive tool would not last more than a 12- to 24-month period, underscoring the Trump administration’s efforts to diversify the U.S. supply chain through new mining and refining operations, including through partnerships in Southeast Asia and allied countries.

The suspension of Beijing’s controls also extends beyond U.S. markets.

European Union Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Nov. 1 that Chinese officials at the Ministry of Commerce informed their European counterparts that the pause also applies to the EU.

“China confirmed that the suspension of the October export controls applies to the EU,” Sefcovic wrote on X, adding that “both sides reaffirmed commitment to continue engagement on improving the implementation of export control policies.”

Rare Earth Tensions

China first weaponized rare earths by imposing export controls on Japan during a diplomatic dispute in 2010, sending shockwaves through the global manufacturing sector. The rare earths sector remains one of the world’s most concentrated supply chains, with China dominating approximately 70 percent of global production and a significantly larger share of processing capacity.

Starting in 2023, China began imposing export restrictions on strategic materials to the United States, including substances like antimony, germanium, and tungsten. This prompted the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party to release a report recommending that Congress incentivize domestic production of rare earth element magnets, which are the key end-use for rare earth elements.

Since taking office for a second term, President Donald Trump has sought to boost domestic production of strategic materials, including by fast-tracking permitting for critical mineral mining projects and pledging hundreds of millions of dollars to U.S. producers as his administration seeks to break China’s grip on supply.

In April 2025, China expanded its export control list to include seven rare earths and magnets made from three of them. This followed Trump’s steep tariffs on Chinese goods as part of efforts to rebalance what his administration calls unfair trade relations, as well as to curb the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

Since then, volatility in rare earth shipments to the United States has intensified, though a July framework between Washington and Beijing briefly eased tensions by providing a 90-day tariff pause meant to stabilize flows.

In September, Bessent said that the United States was “not without levers” in the rare earths dispute with China, noting that there were “plenty of products that they depend on us for,” including aircraft engines, parts, chemicals, plastics, and silicon ingredients.

In mid-October, the Treasury chief noted that rare earth shipments from China had once again slowed and said that it was the United States’ priority to work with allies to “de-risk and diversify supply chains away from China as quickly as possible.”

While Bessent said at the time that it was not the Trump administration’s desire to sever trade ties entirely with Beijing over the dispute of supplies of critical materials, he said that the United States and its allies may have no choice but to “decouple” if China “wants to be an unreliable partner to the world.”

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Tyler Durden Sun, 11/02/2025 - 08:10

What Cracked? Leftist-Controlled Maryland County Stuns Residents By Striking Deal With ICE

The Democratic Party's power grip on the Mid-Atlantic, particularly in Maryland, appears to be eroding. 

Local headlines and a Justice Department statement confirm that leftist-controlled Baltimore County has been removed from the federal list of sanctuary jurisdictions after signing a cooperation agreement with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The DoJ wrote in a press release that the county's cooperation represents progress in restoring public safety, despite state-level restrictions on federal immigration enforcement. The county had been listed as a sanctuary jurisdiction since August, a designation leftist County Executive Kathy Klausmeier argued was a mistake. 

"Despite restrictions from state leadership, Baltimore County has shown a willingness to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement. This is a small step toward restoring public safety and we appreciate the county's commitment to updating its policies," Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward wrote in a statement.

"This agreement makes no changes to the Department of Corrections' standard practices and aligns Baltimore County with peer jurisdictions throughout the state of Maryland," the county Executive's office said in a statement Friday.

In total, eight Maryland counties, plus crime-ridden Baltimore City, were placed on the list of sanctuary jurisdictions published by the Trump administration earlier this year. The common denominator among all these areas is that they're controlled by far-left lawmakers who prioritize illegal aliens over their constituents. The goal is clear: illegals mean future voters, which ultimately disenfranchises the existing voting base.

For far too long, the Democratic Party has maintained a stranglehold over the central part of the state. No sane person voted to have illegal aliens funneled into their neighborhoods by the thousands, only to observe violent crime and an affordability crisis unfold as illegals absorbed housing stock.

One important thing that happened yesterday late afternoon, Democrats were hoping you didn’t see, was Maryland’s third-largest county, Baltimore County, entering into an MOU agreement to turn criminal illegal aliens over to ICE. We’ve had legislation that would force this to be a… pic.twitter.com/IHrL7iLXuF

— Matt Morgan (@MattMorgan29A) November 1, 2025

A snapshot of the vibe of county residents was observed on Facebook, in which many were in pure joy:

Delegate Nino Mangione (R-District 42A) commented:

I am delighted that Baltimore County has finally realized the importance of cooperating with ICE and following the rule of law. Our citizens deserve the protection this MOU provides, and I am very pleased about it. Illegal immigration is one of the greatest threats we face in our communities and it is essential that there be full cooperation between federal and local law enforcement. We never want to see another senseless murder by an illegal. We do not want a repeat where innocent citizens like Rachel Morin or Kayla Hamilton lose their lives to the violent actions of an illegal. The signing of this MOU is a great step forward for the protection of Baltimore County."

I am also very pleased to see Baltimore County lose the stain of being listed as a sanctuary jurisdiction.

Whether the Trump administration applied pressure on Democrats in the county or due to imploding poll numbers ...  

… it's clear voters in the Mid-Atlantic are rejecting the Democratic Party in growing numbers. From nation-destroying open borders/sanctuary policies to skyrocketing power bills, progressives have fumbled the policy football, and their grip on power in the region is beginning to erode.

Just wait until Republicans figure out how to capitalize on the failed green energy crisis - oh wait, that's already happening.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 11/02/2025 - 07:35

Europe's Solar Surge Exposes Cracks In Aging Power Grid: Analysts

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Europe’s solar power boom is putting huge pressure on electricity grids that were never built to handle this much renewable energy, say analysts.

An aerial view taken with a drone shows a solar energy field near Weilheim, Germany, on Oct. 16, 2025. Philipp Guelland/Getty Images

As a record number of new solar panels are being installed every year, the old grid system is struggling to keep up.

Solar generation capacity in the European Union continues to increase and reached an estimated 338 GW by 2024, according to SolarPower Europe.

To curb its dependence on Russian energy and accelerate its green transition, the EU set a goal in 2022 to install at least 700 gigawatts of solar power by 2030, enough to supply electricity to hundreds of millions of homes.

But the rapid expansion has exposed cracks in Europe’s energy system, threatening to slow the transition unless grids catch up.

Europe’s power grids faced a surge in voltage problems last year, with 8,645 over-voltage incidents reported in 2024—nearly 10 times more than in 2023, according to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E).

Special mounted solar panels are installed over a biological apple fruit tree plantation in Gelsdorf, western Germany, on Aug. 30, 2022. Martin Meissner/AP Photo

Aging distribution infrastructure complicates the issue. Industry group Eurelectric estimates that nearly half of Europe’s distribution networks will be more than 40 years old by 2030.

Energy analyst and project lead at the Helmholtz Center Berlin, Susanne Nies, told The Epoch Times that Europe’s power system is under heavy strain because it was designed for a time when electricity made up only a small share of total energy use.

“When you go to the countryside and countries like France or even Germany, those grids have been built in the 50s. They are really nearly 70 years old,” she said.

Europe’s electricity system was initially designed for one-way flows—from large power plants to homes and businesses, Nies explained, adding that now it must handle power flowing in both directions, as millions of solar panels feed energy back into the grid.

She said today’s grid needs to combine large regional “super grids” with smaller, local systems that can operate independently during emergencies.

Harry Wilkinson, head of policy at the Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the challenge is not only that Europe’s grid is aging but that it must be vastly expanded to connect power sources that are far more scattered than in the past.

“Just the physical amount of additional cabling that you have to add to the grid, to connect, that is a big challenge, just in itself,” he said.

Voltage Problems and Spain’s Grid Struggles

Most voltage problems in 2024 originated from Sweden’s Svenska kraftnät, which implemented automated reporting, while operators in Slovenia, Moldova, and Romania also experienced increases as renewables expanded, according to Eurelectric.

Others fared better: Hungary’s MAVIR cut incidents for a second year, and grid operators in Spain, the Netherlands, and France reported none at all.

However, in April, huge power outages hit Spain and Portugal, leaving millions of homes and businesses without power. In Spain, where solar energy now provides about 21 percent of the country’s power—up from 8 percent five years ago—emergency measures have been necessary to prevent blackouts.

Customers dine in a restaurant illuminated by a generator during a blackout in Barcelona, Spain, on April 28, 2025. AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti

Nies said that while in Spain’s case, the solar power grid was not the culprit, it has not been updated as fast as needed, and parts of it could be improved.

Wilkinson disagrees that it wasn’t the grid’s fault. He told The Epoch Times that renewables are simply more complicated to manage as a technology.

Nies noted that Spain remains poorly connected to its neighbors, while Germany’s grid is far more integrated, with four transmission operators and nearly 900 distribution system operators that manage local electricity networks.

According to independent energy consultant Kathryn Porter, location plays a far greater role in weaker grids. While frequency stays consistent across a network, voltage is a local factor that must be stabilized by nearby equipment.

“Spain’s conventional generation is concentrated in the north and east, while the south is dominated by renewables, making the southern network weak and increasingly difficult to control,” she said in her blog.

Grid Spending

Solar power supplies 22.1 percent of the EU’s electricity, according to energy thinktank Ember Climate, compared with 12.4 percent in China.

In the United States, the share is projected to reach about 7 percent in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Even as solar output soars, Europe’s electricity demand has stagnated, falling last year and recovering only slightly in 2025. Weak demand makes it more challenging to balance an energy system that is increasingly dominated by intermittent renewables.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says investment in transmission and distribution networks is becoming critical as grid upgrades struggle to keep pace with the rapid buildout of low-emission power.

Power lines connecting pylons of high-tension electricity are seen during sunset at an electricity substation on the outskirts of Ronda, during a blackout in the Spanish city, on April 28, 2025. Jon Nazca/Reuters

Annual grid spending in the EU is set to exceed $70 billion in 2025, double the level a decade ago, the IEA said in a June report. Yet investment still trails the growth of clean-energy projects, leading to long connection queues and bottlenecks in moving cheap solar power from southern Europe to industrial centers in the north.

The European Investment Bank, the EU’s lending arm, warned in September that a lack of investment in grid spending causes inefficiencies in Europe and beyond. It stated that investment should remain a top policy priority if Europe wants to stay competitive.

When reviewing the overall economics of solar energy, the costs of grid management and the impact of high penetration levels on the grid are crucial, Wilkinson said. High penetration levels refer to a situation where the system relies heavily on one or more sources of renewable energy, which are intermittent and more challenging to ensure voltage and frequency stability.

“We should be realistic about the enormous cost burden that is likely to be faced because of those decisions,” he said.

New Solar Installations

Industry group SolarPower Europe expects a slight drop in new solar installations in 2025, marking the first decline in a decade. In its July statement, the group attributed the slowdown to grid bottlenecks, falling subsidies, and permitting delays.

The downturn is driven mainly by a slump in rooftop solar, especially among homeowners.

“In traditionally strong residential rooftop solar markets, like Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Belgium, Czechia, and Hungary, households are now postponing installations as the impact of the 2022 energy crisis wanes,” SolarPower Europe said.

Solar panels on a solar field in Moers, Germany, on Aug. 5, 2024. Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty Images

It added that the withdrawal of incentive schemes without adequate replacements has led to a collapse of more than 60 percent in some rooftop markets compared with 2023, while Poland, Spain, and Germany have seen drops of over 40 percent.

A policy brief from Ember last year warned that renewable expansion was being “held back by urgent stress signals” in Europe’s electricity networks.

Another report by Strategic Energy Europe found that more than 1,700 GW of potential renewable capacity was being held in connection queues due to limited grid capacity.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/02/2025 - 07:00

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• Tesla May Have Sold a Million Fewer Cars Because of Elon Musk’s Toxic Politics: The billionaire CEO did his electric vehicle company no favors by aligning with the MAGA movement and serving as a high-profile Trump adviser, a new report finds. (Rolling Stone)

• AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All: I talked to the scholars who literally wrote the book on tech bubbles—and applied their test. (Wired) see also This Is How the AI Stock Boom Plays Out: As the economic significance of AI becomes clearer, valuations of AI-linked stocks will fall. (Bloomberg) Counterargument coming tomorrow…

• UnitedHealth paid AARP $9B to sell Medicare products. Spammer/Marketing outfit AARP received $9 billion in royalties from UnitedHealthcare last year as part of an agreement to continue selling AARP-branded Medicare products, according to updated financial statements recently posted on the advocacy group’s website. (Axios)

• How Moderna, the company that helped save the world, unraveled: After missteps and misfortune, the biotech confronts a precarious future. (Stat)

• Inside the Trump family’s global crypto cash machine: The U.S. president’s family raked in more than $800 million from sales of crypto assets in the first half of 2025 alone, a Reuters examination found, on top of potentially billions more in unrealized “on paper” gains. Much of that cash has come from foreign sources as Donald Trump’s sons have touted their business on an international investor roadshow. (Reuters) see also The pardon was the payoff: Binance’s Changpeng Zhao earns a gold-plated pardon as other industry figures fund Trump’s $300 million ballroom. (Citation Needed) see also How a Billionaire Felon Boosted Trump’s Crypto Company en Route to a Pardon: Binance facilitated $2 billion purchase of World Liberty’s stablecoin and built its technology; clemency for Changpeng Zhao surprised some in administration. (Wall Street Journal)

• How America’s Elite Colleges Breed High-Status Careers—and Misery: The “career funnel,” a phrase coined by sociologists Amy Binder and Daniel Davis, describes the mechanism behind the crowding of elite college graduates into three high-paying fields. For instance, the Harvard Crimson’s annual survey of graduating seniors revealed that more than half of the class of 2025 had taken jobs in finance (21 percent), tech (18 percent), or management consulting (14%). (Mother Jones)

• How Obama maneuvered behind the scenes to fight Trump on redistricting: The ex-president’s involvement reflects the deep anxieties he has about Trump’s agenda and has propelled him into a more political, public-facing role than he envisioned. (Washington Post)

• Are We Losing Our Democracy? Our country is still not close to being a true autocracy, in the mold of Russia or China. But once countries begin taking steps away from democracy, the march often continues. We offer these 12 markers as a warning of how much Americans have already lost and how much more we still could lose. (New York Times)

• The Venezuela Boat Strikes and the Justice Department’s Golden Shield: How the Office of Legal Counsel Helps the White House in its Summary Killings (Executive Functions) see also Why Commanders Don’t Sign NDAs: Existing rules and laws applying to military secrecy are sufficient—and asking officers to sign NDAs is deeply inappropriate. (The Bulwark)

• Jennifer Lawrence Goes Dark: She has been cast in maternal roles since her teens. Now, playing a mother for the first time since becoming one, she has chosen the part of a woman pushed past the edge of sanity. (New Yorker)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Jon Hilsenrath of Serpa Pinto Advisory. Previously, he was chief economics correspondent for Wall Street Journal for 26 years. Dubbed the “Fed Whisperer” by Wall Street traders for his scoops on the FOMC, he worked out of Hong Kong, NY, and D.C. He was part of the Pulitzer Prize-winning team for on-scene coverage of 9/11.  He is the author of “Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval.”

 

The top 10 US companies account for almost a quarter of the global equity market, and eight of those companies are in the technology sector

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

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Gabbard Says Trump Has Ended America's Era Of 'Regime Change'

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Tulsi Gabbard, the U.S. national intelligence director, said on Oct. 31 that America’s former strategy of “regime change or nation building” had ended under President Donald Trump, with Gabbard describing the previous practice as counterproductive and wasteful of taxpayer resources.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard speaks to reporters during a briefing at the White House in Washington on July 23, 2025. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

“For decades, our foreign policy has been trapped in a counterproductive and endless cycle of regime change or nation building,” Gabbard said. “It was a one-size-fits-all approach, of toppling regimes, trying to impose our system of governance on others, intervene in conflicts that were barely understood and walk away with more enemies than allies.”

“The results: Trillions spent, countless lives lost and in many cases, the creation of greater security threats,” said Gabbard, a former congresswoman from Hawaii and U.S. Army National Guard veteran.

Gabbard’s comments echoed Trump’s message earlier this year in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he declared that the era of U.S. “nation-building” was over and that America would no longer impose its system of governance abroad.

“In the end the so-called nation-builders wrecked far more nations than they built, and the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves,” Trump said. “Peace, prosperity, and progress ultimately came not from a radical rejection of your heritage, but rather from embracing your national traditions. ... You achieved a modern miracle the Arabian way.”

Trump praised the Gulf states as “forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos,” contrasting their success with failed U.S. interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, criticizing “so-called nation-builders, neocons or liberal nonprofits like those who spend trillions and trillions of dollars failing to develop Kabul, Baghdad, so many other cities.”

Gabbard’s remarks in Bahrain further cemented what is shaping up to be a hallmark of Trump’s second-term foreign policy—a break from the interventionism of prior administrations in favor of economic cooperation, regional partnerships, and selective use of force.

In a recent assessment for the Hoover Institution, former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey James Jeffrey wrote that Trump’s Middle East policy “is not isolationist focused on resolving major international problems.” The administration, he said, considers the Middle East a continuing priority, seeking to expand the Abraham Accords of Trump’s first administration and entrench regional stability amid Iran’s diminished leverage.

“Together, these trends aim at aligning Israel with Arab states and creating regional stability that will still require American engagement but not major resources or the risk of war,” Jeffrey wrote.

Jeffrey wrote that Trump’s speech in Riyadh represented “a dramatic shift” in U.S. policy, that he sees as resting on three principles: rejection of American interference in other nations’ internal affairs; reliance on local actors to advance stability; and focus on business opportunities that serve both U.S. and regional interests.

In Trump’s second term, those principles appear to have guided Washington’s approach to securing a cease-fire that halted the Israel–Hamas war in Gaza and to ending Israel’s 12-day conflict with Iran after U.S. bombers struck Iranian nuclear sites.

During her speech in Bahrain, Gabbard said that the Gaza cease-fire remains “fragile” and that Iran’s nuclear activity is again drawing scrutiny from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“The road ahead will not be simple or easy,” Gabbard said. “But the president is very committed down this road.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 23:30

Ohio Sec. Of State Refers 1,084 Cases Of Suspected Fraudulent Voter Registration to DOJ

Via American Greatness,

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose says he’s found 1,084 alleged cases of noncitizens who appear registered to vote and is referring them to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) after county prosecutors failed to act.

LaRose said his office has also uncovered instances of 167 people who have allegedly voted in a federal election as far back as  2018.

“In these cases, the county prosecutor has decided for whatever reason not to take them up. In some cases they’ve been referred to the attorney general as well, and we’re sending them along to the federal government to see if they want to prosecute these cases,” LaRose said.

LaRose had asked county prosecutors to act on 633 cases of suspected voter fraud last year but prosecutors took up just 12 of them, saying the others lacked evidence to pursue indictments.

The number of election fraud allegations in Ohio are a direct challenge to Democrat claims that noncitizens registering to vote in U.S. elections never happens.

The real amount of illegal voting is vastly greater than this.

Consider that California and New York banned the use of ID for voting! They legalized fraudulent voting. https://t.co/aprvhBu3Bf

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 28, 2025

Secretary LaRose gave credit to a special investigative unit in his office for uncovering the cases, although he noted that, while unusual, there does not appear to be a pattern to them.

LaRose stated:

What we know is that noncitizens registering is exceedingly rare. It’s even more rare for noncitizens to actually cast a ballot, especially now that we’ve got a really good process in place for identifying that at the time of registration and checking for that. But in some cases it has happened. And we’re talking about hundreds of cases, not thousands and thousands of cases.

A press release from LaRose’s office says the Ohio Sec. of State is also referring to the DOJ, 99 individuals who appear to have voted in two states in the same federal election, 16 individuals who appear to have voted twice in Ohio in the same federal election and 14 individuals who appear to have voted in a federal election after the date of their deaths.

Four individuals also are suspected of ballot harvesting and 2 individuals appear to have registered to vote at a residence where they were not entitled to register.

In his letter to the DOJ Criminal Division, LaRose wrote:

I have made numerous criminal referrals throughout my administration, with much of the evidence related to unlawful registration and voting activity. These cases have encountered varying degrees of adjudication from Ohio’s 88 county prosecutors. We now have an executive administration at the White House and the Department of Justice that has expressed an interest in actively reviewing and potentially prosecuting evidence of federal election crimes.

The Secretary’s letter also gives credit to constructive feedback from state and local prosecutors in helping his office improve the quality of evidence referred for investigation.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 22:20

Where US Families Are Most Strained By Debt

Americans are always worrying about debt: their own and their government’s.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, maps each state by their household debt-to-income ratios (DTI) in Q1, 2025, revealing which states carry the heaviest burdens and which ones keep borrowing in check.

Data for this visualization comes from the Federal Reserve. The highest ratio is visualized per state.

ℹ️ Debt includes mortgages, autos, credit cards, etc., and excludes student loans. Income is based on unemployment insurance-covered wages, as reported to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Which States Carry the Most Debt?

Two states share the top spot: Idaho and Hawaii both post a DTI of 2.06, meaning households owe just over twice their annual after-tax income.

Rank State State Code Debt-to-Income Ratio (2025) Debt-to-Income Ratio (1999) 1999–2025 Change 1 Idaho ID 2.06 1.50 0.56 2 Hawaii HI 2.06 2.06 0.00 3 Arizona AZ 1.84 1.40 0.44 4 Colorado CO 1.84 1.40 0.44 5 Utah UT 1.84 1.40 0.44 6 Maryland MD 1.84 1.72 0.12 7 South Carolina SC 1.72 1.32 0.40 8 Nevada NV 1.72 1.40 0.32 9 Oregon OR 1.72 1.40 0.32 10 Florida FL 1.72 1.60 0.12 11 Delaware DE 1.60 1.11 0.49 12 Montana MT 1.60 1.32 0.28 13 Rhode Island RI 1.60 1.32 0.28 14 Virginia VA 1.60 1.40 0.20 15 California CA 1.60 1.72 -0.12 16 Wyoming WY 1.50 1.11 0.39 17 Georgia GA 1.50 1.24 0.26 18 Maine ME 1.50 1.24 0.26 19 North Carolina NC 1.50 1.24 0.26 20 New Mexico NM 1.50 1.50 0.00 21 Washington WA 1.50 1.50 0.00 22 Mississippi MS 1.40 1.11 0.29 23 New Hampshire NH 1.40 1.24 0.16 24 New Jersey NJ 1.40 1.24 0.16 25 Tennessee TN 1.40 1.24 0.16 26 Alaska AK 1.40 1.32 0.08 27 Alabama AL 1.32 1.11 0.21 28 Louisiana LA 1.32 1.11 0.21 29 Oklahoma OK 1.32 1.11 0.21 30 Vermont VT 1.32 1.24 0.08 31 Arkansas AR 1.24 1.11 0.13 32 Indiana IN 1.24 1.11 0.13 33 Iowa IA 1.24 1.11 0.13 34 Kentucky KY 1.24 1.11 0.13 35 Massachusetts MA 1.24 1.11 0.13 36 Michigan MI 1.24 1.11 0.13 37 Minnesota MN 1.24 1.11 0.13 38 Missouri MO 1.24 1.11 0.13 39 Nebraska NE 1.24 1.11 0.13 40 South Dakota SD 1.24 1.11 0.13 41 Texas TX 1.24 1.11 0.13 42 West Virginia WV 1.24 1.11 0.13 43 Wisconsin WI 1.24 1.11 0.13 44 Connecticut CT 1.11 1.11 0.00 45 District of Columbia DC 1.11 1.11 0.00 46 Illinois IL 1.11 1.11 0.00 47 Kansas KS 1.11 1.11 0.00 48 New York NY 1.11 1.11 0.00 49 North Dakota ND 1.11 1.11 0.00 50 Ohio OH 1.11 1.11 0.00 51 Pennsylvania PA 1.11 1.11 0.00

In Hawaii’s case, elevated housing costs push mortgage balances sky-high. In Idaho, a surge of migrants since 2020 has driven up home prices and left many newcomers with large, fresh mortgages.

Rounding out the top five are Arizona, Colorado, and Utah (all 1.84). Once again, fast-growing markets where rising prices and younger populations translate into higher leverage.

ℹ️ Related: Hawaii has the fifth-lowest homeownership rate in the country.

States With the Lowest Household Debt

At the other end of the spectrum, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Dakota come in at just 1.11.

Many low-debt states share three traits. They have lower housing costs, older homeowner bases with significant equity, and slower population growth that tempers new borrowing.

However, even high-income states like Connecticut and the District of Columbia can land in this cohort thanks to well-paid residents who keep balances in check.

The gap underscores how regional housing dynamics, more than incomes alone, dictate household debt.

Finally, due to how this ratio is calculated, younger households’ true burden may be understated (student loan exclusion).

At the same time, the income measure is unemployment insurance-covered wages wages (not total personal income), which can overstate the ratio in high-capital-income areas (e.g., states with finance-heavy metros).

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Visualizing Government Debt-to-GDP Around the World on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 21:45

Ben & Jerry's Co-Founder Accuses Unilever Of Blocking Palestinian-Themed Ice Cream

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Ben & Jerry’s was blocked by its parent company, Unilever, from creating a Palestinian-themed ice cream, the company’s co-founder, Ben Cohen, said in an Oct. 28 video post on Instagram.

“A while back, Ben and Jerry’s tried to make a flavor to call for peace in Palestine, to stand for justice and dignity for everyone, like Ben and Jerry’s always has. But they weren’t allowed to. They were stopped by Unilever/Magnum, the company that owns Ben and Jerry’s. Just like when Ben and Jerry’s tried to stop selling ice cream in the occupied territories, they were blocked again by their parent company,” Cohen said in the video.

“So, I’m doing what they couldn’t. I’m making a watermelon-flavored ice cream that calls for permanent peace in Palestine and calls for repairing all the damage that was done there.”

Watermelon is symbolically linked to the Palestinians since the fruit comes in the same colors—red, black, and green—as seen on the Palestinian flag. They are also commonly grown in the region.

Cohen called on people to come up with the ingredients for the ice cream and a name for the product.

Ben & Jerry’s operates as a wholly owned subsidiary of The Magnum Ice Cream Company, the largest ice cream company in the world. Magnum is a Unilever brand that operates as a standalone company, with the demerger process between the two currently underway.

In an emailed statement to The Epoch Times, a spokesperson for Magnum said that the proposal for a flavor in support of Palestine was made by members of Ben & Jerry’s board of directors this summer.

“The independent members of Ben & Jerry’s Board are not, and have never been, responsible for the Ben & Jerry’s commercial strategy and execution. Recommendations are considered by Ben & Jerry’s leadership, and Ben & Jerry’s management has determined it is not the right time to invest in developing this product,” said the spokesperson.

Ben & Jerry’s has a history of supporting various causes, including LGBT activism, Black Lives Matter, and immigration. The company’s activism has been a point of conflict with Unilever.

In 2021, Ben & Jerry’s decided to stop selling ice cream in Israeli settlements located in East Jerusalem and the West Bank regions. In 2022, Unilever resolved the matter by selling the ice cream brand’s Israeli business rights to a local company.

In November 2024, Ben & Jerry’s filed a lawsuit against Unilever, accusing the parent company of suppressing free speech. In an amended complaint filed in March, the ice cream brand said Unilever removed its CEO, David Stever, as retaliation for the company’s activism.

Last month, Jerry Greenfield, the other co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s, resigned from his role as the company’s brand ambassador, accusing Unilever of silencing their activism.

In a statement to The Epoch Times following the resignation, a spokesperson for The Magnum Ice Cream Company dismissed Greenfield’s allegations.

“We disagree with his perspective and have sought to engage both co-founders in a constructive conversation on how to strengthen Ben & Jerry’s powerful values-based position in the world,” the spokesperson said.

‘Divisive Political Activism’

Ben & Jerry’s has faced criticism from Jewish groups for its characterization of the Israel-Gaza conflict.

In a May 30 statement, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL)—a group that combats anti-Semitism—and JLens, a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and Jewish values-based investor network, condemned a statement made by the independent board of Ben & Jerry’s on Israel’s actions in Gaza.

The board had accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza.

ADL said the statement was “factually inaccurate, inflammatory, and harmful” while distorting Israel’s fight against terror in Gaza.

“We strongly believe in freedom of expression—but Ben and Jerry’s inflammatory and irresponsible accusations about Israel, including genocide, while failing to mention the plight of the hostages or the threats posed by Hamas does nothing to get this conflict resolved,” said Ari Hoffnung, managing director of JLens.

“The Ben & Jerry’s board should not use their brand as a platform for divisive political activism that risks inflicting irreparable harm on its reputation—and its parent company’s shareholders.”

Ben & Jerry’s has faced backlash from authorities due to the nature of its activism. States such as New Jersey, Arizona, Florida, New York, and North Carolina have divested investments in Unilever following Ben & Jerry’s boycott of Israel.

For instance, in 2023, North Carolina state Treasurer Dale R. Folwell ordered North Carolina Retirement Systems to divest $40 million in Unilever assets.

“This is particularly important in this case as we have witnessed the atrocities perpetrated against the Israeli people. There is no place for antisemitism in this state or this country,” he said at the time.

Moreover, Ben & Jerry’s co-founders have been arrested in the past during protests. In 2016, both Greenfield and Cohen were taken into custody while protesting on the steps of the U.S. Capitol Building.

In 2023, Cohen was arrested amid a demonstration in support of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.

Meanwhile, the demerger between Magnum and Unilever, initially expected to be completed by mid-November, has been delayed, Unilever said in a statement released on Oct. 21.

The delay is due to “the ongoing US federal government shutdown,” the company said.

“The preparatory work for the Demerger is on track and progressing well, and Unilever remains committed to and confident of implementing the Demerger in 2025. Further updates on the revised timetable will be provided as soon as practicable.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 21:10

These Are The World's Biggest Gold Mines

Driven by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and sustained central bank buying, the price of gold reached record levels, gaining nearly 60 percent this year to pass the $,4,000-per-ounce mark this month (closing price average from October 1st to 27th) before falling back to find support around $4000.

The level of demand for gold is now prompting questions about whether reserves of the commodity are being exhausted and if humanity has reached "peak gold".

Indeed, some analysts believe that global mining production has already reached or is close to its peak, having stagnated between 3,000 and 3,300 metric tons annually over the last decade.

While new gold deposits are still being discovered, as recently reported by CNBC in the Hunan province of China (Wangu gold field), large reserves are gradually becoming scarce, with the majority of production still happening in older mines that have been in use for decades.

So which mines are producing the most gold every year?

As Statista's Tristan Gaudiat shows below, using data from company reports published by the website Mining.com, gold mines in Nevada produced 2.70 million ounces (76.5 metric tons) of the precious metal in 2024, which is a similar output to the estimated production of the Muruntau gold deposit (2.68 million ounces that year), which has been exploited since the late 1960s in Uzbekistan.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Discovered in the 1980s, the Grasberg gold mine, located in the Indonesian province of West Papua, is the world's third largest supplier (1.86 million ounces or 59 tons in 2024), followed by the Olimpiada deposit (1.44 million ounces or 40 tons), discovered in 1975 in the Severo-Yeniseysky district of Russia.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 20:35

Germany's Debt Cannon Fails: Special Fund Fuels Bureaucracy, Not Growth

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The German federal government is firing its big debt cannon at the ongoing recession. So far, with zero effect. Berlin is about to learn the hard way that you cannot create prosperity with a money printer.

In March, the federal government launched its major investment offensive – starting with the first bond tranche meant to fuel the so-called “special fund” with fresh credit.

Credit Pump Running Hot

Every year, new bonds with maturities of five to thirty years are to be issued in volumes of €50 billion. With broad support from the Bundestag and Bundesrat, the government is going all in. Half a trillion euros are to be pumped into infrastructure projects over the next decade – and naturally, everything that can be booked under “climate neutrality.”

That a significant part of this credit volume will be diverted to cover gaping deficits in social funds is almost beside the point. The verdict remains unchanged: German policymakers have fully committed to a brute-force Keynesianism – maximum artificial state demand, now coupled with the ECB’s again negative real interest rates.

A textbook of the central bank era, repeatedly seen in the 20th century – always leaving the same trail: growing mountains of debt and the systematic crowding out of private investment from the capital markets.

A vacuum effect. Price guarantees, subsidies, and electricity cost allowances keep this artificial economy liquid – even attracting private capital with guaranteed returns – capital that would be far more productive elsewhere. A fatal vicious cycle.

Scarce resources are diverted into unproductive sectors of the economy. A poverty program hailed by state-aligned media, NGOs, and government economic institutes as some magical potion that is supposed to breathe new life into a bloodless economy.

Zero Growth Despite Debt Spree

In Berlin, hope was last pinned on firing the “Big Bertha” to buy some breathing room. With polling numbers for the Union and SPD plummeting, the goal was to spark a temporary boom to carry them over the finish line of the upcoming state elections. That is the real purpose of the special fund – an expensive political trick that will plunge children and grandchildren into even deeper debt.

Even the Chancellor counts among those dazzled by artificially created credit. Once a champion of a lean state, he switched immediately after taking office to full-blown state expansion.

A weather vane in Berlin, blown by Brussels, carrying the unmistakable siren song of socialism.

The creation of the special fund was, according to Merz in spring, a state-politically necessary step, marking a significant new economic policy beginning amid the debt orgy of the Federal Republic.

Classic “road construction” is meant to ignite economic growth. Stone-age economic thinking from a long-gone era, when governments could still afford such short-lived fiscal fires – though that hardly made it better socially.

For this economic acrobatics, taxpayers will bleed for decades. Irresponsible. Unethical. Inadequate economic policy.

The news from the Federal Statistical Office that growth again came to a standstill in Q3 hit even harder.

Never forget: with net new public debt at 4.7% and a state share of GDP over 50%, private business collapses in practice. That is the only way to mathematically explain a zero growth outcome.

This is the real message from Wiesbaden’s disaster report.

Offloading State Bureaucracy

In German politics, fatal economic illiteracy combines with a dangerous drive to expand the political apparatus – with every intervention in the free economy, every new debt package, every climate-policy justification. This excess shrinks Germany’s future economic potential in favor of an ever more powerful bureaucracy.

Employer president Rainer Dulger’s urgent warning should be taken seriously. He called it a “scandal for the business location,” highlighting that in the past three years alone, 325,000 new employees had to be hired just to manage growing bureaucratic demands.

Biggest cost drivers include GDPR, with its endless documentation and reporting obligations, as well as EU IT security regulations. Add the ever-expanding Supply Chain Due Diligence Act and a flood of new hospitality reporting requirements.

Politics is increasingly outsourcing its bureaucratic monsters to the private economy. A reality not reflected in GDP calculations. In truth, Germany’s state share has long exceeded 50%, possibly already 55%. The state balloons – and German productivity continues to suffer.

Like a Chain Letter

Ideological statism persists like a chain letter. Olaf Scholz’s “double whammy” ultimately became the special fund – bureaucratically less infantile in appearance but essentially the same. State bureaucracy continues to grow to centrally manage this massive debt mountain.

The drying financing channels of the green patronage economy are being flooded again with fresh money. The party goes on. A few fill their pockets while future generations pay via higher taxes and inflation. That part of the new credit is now going to the military economy shows one thing: internally, there is no longer belief that the climate economy is the saving haven.

With the military economy, an old Keynesian classic returns: production above all else – regardless of what is being produced. Even if goods and services benefit only a small, select group of economic profiteers.

China Caught in the Intervention Trap

Europeans are not alone. China, which grants the private sector broad free-market space, repeatedly resorts to Keynesian emergency measures in crises. The creation of massive real estate overcapacity is one example.

The crisis that peaked with the Evergrande collapse is far from over. Millions of apartments were built solely to artificially maintain a short-term economic fire and prevent labor market collapse after the 2008 financial shock. Today, China’s export engine, fueled by high subsidies, serves a similar function – feeding a true mercantilist machine.

Wherever one looks, German politics exists in a fatal echo chamber, where every ideological misstep amplifies itself – the rhetoric grotesquely magnified. In its seven-year planning, the EU Commission under Ursula von der Leyen inflates the central Brussels budget to about €2 trillion.

This provides fiscal cover for the EU’s debt kings. One wonders: wasn’t the EU Commission originally meant to enforce the Maastricht debt rules?

Centralizer Headquarters

In Brussels centralism, the illusion of controlling the economy thrives within a self-reinforcing bureaucratic dynamic. Every new law, every additional regulation may harm the economy, but simultaneously expands the influence of Brussels.

It was only a matter of time before the last inhibition fell and the EU Commission’s borrowing ban was circumvented. This step came with the establishment of the “NextGenerationEU” fund.

In Brussels, the motto is clear: never let a good crisis go to waste. The result is always a new agency, whose archives fill with the latest regulatory ideas of bored civil servants – always financed by new Ponzi-style debt.

Debt piles on debt in an inverted pyramid structure. It cannot end well – and it will not.

The ideological contrast Americans are demonstrating – with massive deregulation – finds no reception in German politics, media, or philosophical debate. All focus is on the combative figure of US President Donald Trump, who thus secures America’s competitive advantage in the media spotlight for the long term.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 20:00

Almost Half Of Humanity Is Gen Z Or Gen Alpha

As of December 2024, the global population has reached 8.2 billion. For the first time in history, nearly half of humanity belongs to Generation Z and Generation Alpha—the digital-native generations.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, ranks the world’s population by generation, showing how age cohorts are distributed across the planet.

The data for this graphic comes from We Are Social, IntelPoint, and the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024. Generation Beta (born 2025–2039), representing less than 1% of the population, is not shown in the graphic because of limited data.

Gen Alpha Becomes the Largest Generation

Generation Alpha, born between 2013 and 2025, now includes roughly 2.0 billion people, or 24.4% of the world’s population. Many of them are still in primary school, but they already outnumber every other generation.

Their demographic weight will increasingly shape consumer markets, education systems, and technology trends in the coming decades. The countries driving this growth are concentrated in Africa and South Asia, where birth rates remain high.

Gen Z and Millennials Dominate the Workforce

Gen Z (ages 13–28) and Millennials (ages 29–44) together account for 44% of all people—and most of the world’s workers. Millennials alone make up 1.7 billion people.

The Aging Populations of Boomers and the Silent Generation

At the upper end of the age spectrum, Baby Boomers (ages 61–79) represent about 12.8% of the population, while those 80 or older—the Silent Generation and older cohorts—make up just 2%.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Visualizing America’s Wealth Distribution by Generation on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 19:25

Annual Sales Of New Vehicles Expected To Hit Only 15.7 Million Units: Cox

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The number of new vehicles sold annually in the United States is expected to hit 15.7 million units according to October estimations, industry expert Cox Automotive said in an Oct. 27 statement.

Vehicles for sale at a Toyota dealership in Houston on Jan. 4, 2022. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

The seasonally adjusted annual rate is down from 16.4 million in September and 16.1 million a year back, said the company, attributing the slowdown to auto tariffs and the end of electric vehicle (EV) incentives.

“The new-vehicle sales pace was surprisingly strong this summer despite ongoing tariff uncertainty,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox, said in the statement.

“However, as more tariffed products replace non-tariffed inventory, prices are tracking higher, which should lead to slower sales through the remainder of the year. With the expiration of EV tax credits and a decline in alternative powertrain sales, the sales pace is anticipated to decrease as we move into a new season.”

Sales volume is forecast to be 1.3 million units in October, down by more than 3 percent from last year. While this figure is 2.7 percent higher than September, October had three more selling days than last month, Cox stated.

The federal government instituted 25 percent tariffs on auto imports in April, followed by 25 percent tariffs on the imports of auto parts. The rates have been adjusted for certain nations based on their negotiations with Washington.

Until Sept. 30, Americans who bought EVs could get a $7,500 tax credit. This incentive ended in line with the requirement of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law by President Donald Trump in July.

Cox stated that EV sales had accelerated after the passage of the Act, with Q3 EV sales volume hitting an all-time high.

“Sales of EVs and PHEVs are expected to collapse in October as tax credits expire,” Chesbrough said.

PHEV refers to a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.

“In addition, market conditions for other vehicles are expected to become more challenging in future months as prices increase,” he said.

Amid slowing sales, car buyers are faced with high acquisition costs. The typical monthly payment for a new vehicle has jumped by 1.9 percent to hit $766, the highest monthly payment level in 15 months, Cox said in an Oct. 15 statement.

Meanwhile, 28.1 percent of cars traded in for new vehicles in the third quarter this year had negative equity, a situation where the car value is less than the loan amount, industry resource Edmunds said in an Oct. 15 statement.

“The sheer amount of debt consumers are carrying in their trade-ins should be a wake-up call,” Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights, said in the statement.

Auto Loan Burden

According to an Oct. 30 report by financial tech company WalletHub, the average American household owed roughly $13,800 in auto loans as of Q2 2025, just a few hundred dollars shy of the record high. The total auto loan debt has gone up to nearly $1.7 trillion.

Auto debt is rising the most in Vermont, followed by Delaware, New Mexico, Idaho, and Utah, it said. In contrast, it is rising the least in Ohio, South Dakota, Hawaii, Oregon, and Arkansas.

John Kiernan, editor at WalletHub, said that residents in some states saw average auto loan balances rise by almost 2.4 percent between Q1 and Q2, which he called “dramatic increases.”

This “suggests that people in some states are more affected by inflation in car prices or are biting off more than they can chew when it comes to loans,” he said.

Meanwhile, despite rising prices, auto demand from middle-income Americans is trending higher, according to an Oct. 16 statement from financial institution Santander US.

A survey of middle-income Americans showed that 54 percent were considering buying a vehicle in the year ahead, up from 43 percent a year back, it stated.

More than seven in 10 said they were willing to sacrifice other items in their budgets to ensure access to vehicles, which Santander said was the highest level in two years.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 18:40

Ukraine Accuses Cuba Of Sending Thousands To Fight In Russian Army, Shutters Havana Embassy

Ukraine has announced the closure of its embassy in Havana amid escalating diplomatic tensions, especially over the accusation that Cuba has turned a blind eye recruitment of its citizens to fight for Russia in the ongoing war.

The decision followed Ukraine's vote against a United Nations General Assembly resolution calling for an end to the US embargo on Cuba, in a pattern which is reminiscent of Cold War-era global politics (America-aligned nations seeking to punish the 20th c. Soviet-aligned bloc).

Ukrainian Embassy in Cuba, file image

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has formally alleged thousands of Cubans had "signed contracts, joining the ranks of soldiers directly engaged in combat operations on Ukrainian soil."

Kiev is essentially accusing Cuba of inaction and pro-Moscow sympathies, describing that "its unwillingness to halt the large-scale deployment of Cuban nationals in Russia’s war against Ukraine amounts to complicity in aggression."

Ukrainian military intelligence has tallied at least 1,076 Cuban citizens fighting on the side of Russian forces, and surprisingly it claims that close to a hundred Cubans are reported missing and presumed dead.

Interestingly, Ukrainian intelligence says Russia has in some cases lured Cubans to join its military ranks by promising construction jobs online, facilitated by agents and middle-men.

European security officials have also of late been warning of potential fraudulent actors working with Russian intelligence to recruit unsuspecting young men from the West.

The biggest number of foreign fighters on Russia's side are believed to be North Korean - at over 10,000 since reports of the phenomenon started being made public - with possibly hundreds having died on the battlefield.

So funny how you can always identify the latest roster of most supplicant US vassal states by the UN General Assembly vote on lifting the Cuba embargo. Argentina now joins the mainstays Ukraine and Israel, along with North Macedonia, Hungary, and Paraguay (?) pic.twitter.com/s4sSloo1Wi

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) October 29, 2025

In total there could be 20,000 North Koreans currently assisting Russia's defense sector, and most of the actual fighting men were said to be active in defending Russia's southern borders.

Other foreign fighters are believed to be from impoverished African nations, with men lured by the promise of good pay, acting essentially as mercenaries.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 18:05

Artic Frost And Financial "Crimes"

Authored by Technofog via The Reactionary,

Thanks to releases by FBI Director Kash Patel and Senate Republicans (here and here and here), we are finally getting sunlight into the FBI’s overarching investigation of not only President Trump but of nearly everyone in his orbit - the investigation assigned the name “Artic Frost.”

The Artic Frost opening document, dated April 13, 2022, provides a number of potential statutory violations that justified its opening. Here is the exact text.

“By conspiring, attempting to submit, and/or submitting allegedly fraudulent elector certificates, subjects, both known and unknown, may have violated one or more of the following federal statutes of which the FBI has enforcement responsibility:

• Attempt or conspiracy to corruptly obstruct, influence, and impede the certification of the Electoral College vote (18 USC § 1512(c)(2) and (k)).

• Obstruction of certain proceedings (18 USC § 1505).

• Falsification of records (18 USC § 1519).

• Conspiracy to defraud the United States (18 USC § 371).

• Mail Fraud (18 USC § 1341).

• Seditious Conspiracy (18 USC § 2384).”

Now, that April 13, 2022 document wasn’t the original Artic Frost opening communication. Rather, from the records that have been published, the original was dated March 22, 2022. And if you look into the alleged statutory violations (which we outlined above), the March 22, 2022 document omits “Mail Fraud.” That’s an important addition for the reasons we’ve outlined below.

By the time Artic Frost commenced, a related grand jury investigation had been opened “with federal law enforcement agencies on January 31, 2022.” Those other agencies were identified as the US Postal Inspection Service and the Investigative Unit of the Office of the Inspector General for the National Archives. The subjects of Artic Frost included: Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. (and those involved in the campaign); attorney John Eastman, who helped lead some of the challenges to the 2020 election; Rudy Giuliani; and Trump advisor (and campaign attorney) Boris Epshteyn. The subjects also included the electors – 60+ persons from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsing who were part of the election challenge efforts.

As we have known for a while, Artic Frost was expansive. Previous filings in Trump’s DC criminal case (which we discussed here) showed that discovery included hundreds of witnesses, 8.5 terabits of data, hundreds (if not thousands) hours of audio and video, and over 11.5 million pages of documents.

Now, thanks to releases from the FBI and Republicans in Congress, we have more details on the specifics of the investigation. It was sweeping, and included:

• Phone records from not only targets of the investigation – Trump, et al., but of Republican members of Congress (which we also covered).

• Search warrants for digital conduct.

• A full grand jury investigation of the alleged criminal activity.

What has been lost is also that the FBI’s Washington Field Office (WFO), back in October 2020, assessed that “the use of American Made Media Consultants (AMMC) as a clearinghouse for Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. (the Trump campaign) spending is likely vulnerable to campaign finance crimes by campaign-connected sub-vendors.”

This campaign finance investigation – which was opened by the FBI’s New York Field Office – stemmed from an AMMC member’s potential gambling activities, his efforts to allegedly evade federal $10,000 reporting requirements when cashing-in his winnings, and the alleged pay-off of a Senegalese government official. The FBI’s thought was that the party (the gambler) potentially used Trump campaign funds distributed through AMMC “for personal or unauthorized use.” It should be noted that the FBI’s October 2020 “Tactical Intelligence Report” made its assessment with “low confidence.”

In June 2022, the FBI re-assessed the financial investigation (or at least had renewed interest in the financial investigation), citing to the House January 6th Committee’s “investigation” into the Trump Campaign’s post-2020 election fundraising, which was promoted as the “Election Defense Fund.” See the FBI email below.

We mention campaign finance and the use of funds to challenge the 2020 election because of Senator Grassley’s recent release of 1700+ pages of grand jury subpoenas requesting financial records from a number of individuals and entities, including:

• Donald J. Trump for President

• Jeff Clark

• American Voting Rights Foundation (which helped fund the Arizona audit)

• Conservative Partnership Institute (which assists Republicans in training and educating staff, builds coalitions, and helps with staffing)

• A large number of vendors and contractors involved with the Trump Campaign

• Cyber Ninjas (who were involved in the Arizona election audit)

• Sidney Powell

• Individuals and attorneys who assisted with fundraising for, or distributing funds concerning, election audits.

• MyPillow

• Representation or legal fee agreements between fundraising committees and their attorneys

• Dan Scavino

• Mark Meadows

Some of these subpoenas were issued by the grand jury before Jack Smith was appointed Special Counsel. But most of them were came after Smith’s November 18, 2022 appointment – some just days after.

It’s pretty clear what happened.

By April 2022 (at the latest), the Biden DOJ wasn’t just pursuing “election interference” charges against Trump, et al. They were going after conservative fundraising and groups promoting conservative causes, as well as the individuals associated with those groups and entities.

That’s why you see mail fraud – a statute used by federal authorities to charge fundraising-related crimes – in the April 2022 Artic Frost opening communication. (We’re fairly certain they also looked at wire fraud.) And through the use of the grand jury, the Biden Administration was able to reach every single group and individual that pursued truth in the 2020 presidential election.

But it’s not only that. The Biden Administration also targeted those groups formed after the 2020 election – such those groups who weren’t involved in “alternative electors” but who assisted and conducted audits.

The predicate for an expansive financial crimes investigation is not addressed in the Artic Frost opening communication. Nor is it addressed in Special Counsel Smith’s final report. It’s telling that a prosecutor as aggressive as Jack Smith found no financial crimes after receiving the records – an indication of just how weak the predicate was.

This wasn’t just about 2020. It was about 2024 and a plan to not only indict the former President and Republican frontrunner, but to kneecap his support and financial infrastructure.

It’s not like the FBI is immune to advancing conspiracy theories. The agency never learned its lesson from Crossfire Hurricane. In September 2022, there was this email from an agent with the Seattle Field Office that relayed “intelligence” from one of their sources regarding Ed Corrigan (bio here), the President and CEO of Conservative Partnership Institute. Corrigan is as harmless as they come - and here we have internal FBI documents discussing him being “pro-Putin and anti-Biden”, that he is engaged with Mark Meadows “in willful criminal activity”, that Corrigan has “properties at which he wants to build up infrastructure to train people for civil war”, and that Corrigan “has plans that are not good for the FBI.”

One of the key questions remaining is what the FBI did with that information - whether that source was trusted, and whether investigations were opened into Corrigan or Kushner based on that obviously false intelligence. We’ll see.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 17:30

'Breathtaking' Fraud: Blackrock Ripped Off For $500 Million In Curious Case Of Bankim Brahmbhatt

• BlackRock’s HPS Investment Partners has written off roughly $150 million after discovering allegedly falsified collateral behind loans to telecom entrepreneur Bankim Brahmbhatt.
• The financing, arranged with BNP Paribas, was backed by what turned out to be fabricated accounts receivable and forged customer emails, lawsuits show.
• Brahmbhatt’s companies - Broadband Telecom, Bridgevoice, and Carriox Capital - have filed for bankruptcy; lenders say total exposure exceeds $500 million.
• BNP Paribas took a €190 million ($220 million) provision for a “specific credit situation,” without naming the borrower.

The private-credit arm of BlackRock Inc. and other lenders are racing to recover hundreds of millions of dollars after falling victim to what they’ve described as a “breathtaking” fraud - the latest sign of weakness in an opaque corner of the U.S. debt markets.

The lenders, led by HPS Investment Partners, which BlackRock acquired earlier this year, accused businessman Bankim Brahmbhatt of fabricating invoices and accounts receivable that he used as collateral for loans totaling more than $500 million to his telecom-services firms, Broadband Telecom and Bridgevoice.  The alleged scheme is now the subject of an August lawsuit and multiple bankruptcies.

Brahmbhatt, through his attorney, has denied the fraud allegations to the Wall Street Journal. 

A Familiar Pattern of Trouble

The dispute centers on asset-based financing, a type of private credit deal where lenders extend funds secured by cash flows or receivables from the borrower’s business. The market has ballooned alongside the broader private-credit boom, now topping $1.7 trillion globally, as nonbank lenders rush to fill a void left by traditional banks.

But a series of collapses, which include the headline-grabbing bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor Auto Group, both accused of pledging questionable assets - has raised concerns that private lenders’ due-diligence standards are being stretched thin.

The unraveling of those companies has stoked warnings from finance industry titans including JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon, who cautioned that one “cockroach” likely portends more. Private credit executives such as Blue Owl Capital Inc.’s Marc Lipschultz pushed back, saying that the firm isn’t seeing rising defaults and noting that the highest-profile issues were in lending that banks led. -Bloomberg

According to public records, Brahmbhatt founded Bankai Group in 1989 in Ahmedabad, India, initially manufacturing push-button telephones before expanding into telecom software and infrastructure. His firm later created technology subsidiary Panamax Inc. and, in 2017, launched Carriox Capital, a non-bank lender offering invoice financing and working-capital loans to telecom carriers.

HPS began financing Carriox Capital in late 2020, later expanding the facility to about $430 million by mid-2024, according to the Journal, while Bloomberg notes that HPS has "since written off its roughly $150 million exposure to zero." 

BNP Paribas helped fund nearly half of that exposure, the people said, though the French bank has declined to comment publicly. In its most recent earnings filing, BNP disclosed a €190 million ($220 million) loan-loss provision tied to a “specific credit situation.”

Bankim Brahmbhatt Bankai Group

The loans were held in two HPS-managed funds. A person close to BlackRock said the exposure represents a small portion of the firm’s $179 billion in assets under management and won’t materially affect fund performance.

Still, the incident underscores how even the largest asset managers are struggling to contain risks as they pour billions into direct lending.

A Trail of Fake Emails and Empty Offices

The unraveling began this summer, when an HPS employee spotted suspicious email addresses supposedly belonging to Carriox customers. The domains mimicked legitimate telecom firms but were slightly altered — a red flag suggesting someone was fabricating customer correspondence.

When confronted, Brahmbhatt assured HPS there was nothing to worry about, then abruptly stopped answering calls, people familiar with the matter said.

A building housing the offices of Brahmbhatt’s companies in Garden City, N.Y.

An HPS representative visiting the company’s Garden City, N.Y. offices found them shuttered. Neighbors said the office had appeared empty for weeks.

The lenders’ subsequent investigation, led by accounting firm CBIZ and law firm Quinn Emanuel, allegedly revealed that every customer email provided by Brahmbhatt’s companies to verify invoices over the previous two years was fake. One supposed customer, Belgium’s BICS, confirmed in writing that the invoices were “a fraud attempt.”

“Brahmbhatt created an elaborate balance sheet of assets that existed only on paper,” lawyers for the lenders wrote in their complaint.

Bankruptcy Filings and Vanishing Collateral

Brahmbhatt’s companies filed for Chapter 11 protection in August, alongside Carriox Capital II and related entities. The lenders allege that millions in pledged assets were quietly transferred to offshore accounts in India and Mauritius before the defaults.

On the same day the corporate bankruptcies were filed, Brahmbhatt himself sought personal bankruptcy protection, despite having previously provided a personal guarantee to his lenders.

HPS and its partners believe Brahmbhatt has since traveled to India, according to people briefed on the matter. His lawyer has not commented on his whereabouts.

For BlackRock and HPS, the direct financial hit appears modest. But for the broader private-credit industry - now rivaling the leveraged-loan market in size - the reputational damage could prove more lasting.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 16:55

Universal Basic Income - Making Slavery Great Again

Authored by Dr David Bell via DailySceptic.org,

I once worked in communities supported mainly through a form of Universal Basic Income (UBI). Most money was received from the government for no (or token) work, or from mining royalties where others worked digging on the communities’ lands. There were walls black and heaving with cockroaches while children slept with dogs on stained mattresses below, and babies covered head to toe in pustular scabies while the mother complained about a sore back.

This was not universal, but not uncommon.

Other communities that stood out as strong and healthy had people working hard for a living – particularly in roles that reflected their culture – a very different economy.

Men who once worked hard to support families lose the reason to do so when it makes no real difference, when basics of life and leisure are equally available to those who work for them and those who do nothing. It is not a political issue, just a human behavioural and psychological one. Removing the need to work and the dignity that striving and succeeding brings, especially for one’s family, leads to inaction, loss of interest in the world, a loss of role, loss of dignity and depression. This is dampened by alcohol or drugs. Wives and children suffer by being beaten up by drunk, frustrated and drug-addled men. Having two frequently drunk parents ensures children are malnourished and aimless.

This is not theoretical – it is seen all over the world where people of one culture are overrun by those of another and confined to subservience, economic and societal irrelevance, and handouts. Some people and communities break out of it, usually by finding ways to grow their local economy and achieve some form of self-governance and self-reliance. Breaking out is not common and requires an opportunity, the possibility, to do so.

Our brave new technocratic world

The road much of the ‘developed’ world is currently on is towards UBI, but without that potential for escape. I use this term ‘developed’ in a technological sense – not a human sense – as it denotes technology rather than awareness. UBI will be introduced as a panacea to the problem of artificial intelligence replacing a lot of jobs. The use of AI is increasing because it can accumulate wealth for investors more reliably than employees can. Amazon’s plans to replace humans with robots will not only mean a few hundred thousand human jobs gone at Amazon, but lots more high-street shops boarded up and their employees and owners gone. AI may be overplayed or not, but what Amazon is doing will be widely repeated.

The people out of work, by and large, will be city and town dwellers who must obtain their food from shops (or Amazon). They will need to be given money or food vouchers to do this. Governments will provide these, because they cannot afford responsibility for abject poverty on a mass scale, and many in government also mean well. People will increasingly rent their housing from Blackstone or a similar corporate entity rather than own it, further increasing their dependence. For a while, some people will play online games or draw pictures and grow token lettuces on their balconies, but knowing this is just window dressing on life. Then they will go the way of the communities at the top of this piece, taking families and communities with them.

Government UBI will happen – it already does to some extent in the widespread use of welfare payments, but the future will see it on a far, far larger scale. It will not be cash handouts but digital currency. This will be a tightly controlled version, as in a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), because the government will claim responsibility to control the money it dispenses. CBDC is essentially food vouchers, and intended to be. Your UBI will be yours as long as you use it for what the government allows, within the time it allows.

Well-meaning people are already building the social acceptability for this. Those suggesting now that a virtuous society should prevent food vouchers or unemployment benefits being used for sugar-based drinks or tobacco believe already that dependent people have lost the right to autonomy. Again, this is not at all theoretical.  It is exactly what this form of money is intended for. Most people in society will see its introduction as a good thing, as they are fine limiting the freedom of others if they beileve it serves a greater good.

Living as safe as slaves

In countries like Canada, if you protest against the government you can already lose your right to buy or sell. If you need permission to obtain the basics of life and cannot make your own choices on the pursuit of happiness, and you are punished for questioning those who restrict you, then you are in a master-slave relationship. In time, most people will become essentially a slave of the UBI provider, the government. This is the design behind UBI and CBDCs. It is why very rich people, the people who own the AI and robotics that are going to make so much human labour superfluous, see this as an excellent path.

All the above will not seem at all dystopian. Governments will control their populations as part of ‘saving the world’ and will readily convince a majority of the population that being saved is a good idea. We need governments to save us from climate catastrophe by stopping us travelling, as our children are already told. We need large corporations to save us from pandemics, including those the same corporations’ laboratories may develop. We need ever more expensive pharmaceuticals injected into us to save us from the scourge of obesity – to save us from our own inability to control our eating. We will certainly need saving from mass unemployment and the inability of a large part of the population to earn their own keep.

Saving people is, after all, the government’s job. As the last few years have shown, convincing populations to indulge in self-harm on the pretext of being saved is much easier than we thought. We will slip back into slavery, into a feudal system, because most people will choose it.

A conversation we are unlikely to have

So, we need to talk about UBI because a lot of people think it is a harbinger of a great future, but it is something else. They think people will somehow flourish when they have nothing much useful to do, when they get money for being idle and compliant and there is no compelling incentive to get out of bed in the morning. A temporary social welfare net is what society should do to protect its members and act with decency. UBI – permanent free money for the majority – is something else entirely. It will ensure that the vast majority can never break out of their lot and recover any semblance of the real economic autonomy necessary for societal flourishing.

The UBI future is simply a return to the default of human societies through the ages – feudalism – but without even the relative purpose found in walking behind a plough. Human nature leads us to want to stay on top if we are already there, or wallow in depression if there is no potential for improvement. Depression, drugs, violence, neglect – this is the UBI and CBDC future.

Over the past few hundred years many societies broke free of feudalism. This freedom has been a brief time in the sun. Accepting or rejecting Universal Basic Income as a basis for fixing the rapidly approaching decimation of useful employment will determine whether the sun keeps shining or we return to the oppressive societal default. Slavery for many will seem easier than struggling, and far safer. Once dependent, the luxury of struggling may be gone. We need a real conversation before we turn irretrievably down that road.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 16:20

Berkshire's Cash Pile Hits A Record $382 Billion Amid Continued Stock Sales As T-Bill Purchases Soar

With just two months left until Warren Buffett, 95, departs as CEO of the iconic conglomerate he made into one of the world's largest investment companies over the past 60 years, earlier today Berkshire reported in its latest 10Q filings that its cash pile soared to a new all time high of $381.7 billion in the third quarter, an increase of $37.6 billion for the quarter, which translate to $420 million per day, and $17 million per hour.

At the same time operating earnings jumped 34% to $13.5 billion from $10.1 billion, as the firm’s insurance underwriting profit more than tripled in the third quarter boosted by lower insurance losses, offsetting declines in the Insurance-investment income and Berkshire's Energy company.

The $13.49 billion quarterly operating profit, or $9,376 per Class A share, grew from $10.09 billion a year earlier. Currency fluctuations accounted for more than two-fifths of the increase.

While results benefited in part from an absence of major catastrophes such as hurricanes, Berkshire auto insurer Geico’s pretax underwriting profit fell 13% amid higher claims and a 40% increase in underwriting costs, which the firm said is due to “increased policy acquisition-related expenses" i.e., advertising, to acquire new policies in a period of soaring insurance costs. Additionally, insurance will likely face headwinds as falling interest rates reduce income from Berkshire's cash holdings, which also occurred in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, Berkshire’s utilities business, which runs PacifiCorp, MidAmerican and NV Energy, posted a 9% decline in operating earnings, to $1.5 billion over the period, and reflected legal bills from wildfires, and higher costs from natural gas pipelines and Northern Powergrid in Britain. Berkshire is still evaluating how U.S. President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July might affect the viability of its renewable energy projects.

One especially sore point was Pilot, which posted a $17 million loss in the third quarter. Berkshire said the decline is driven by lower wholesale fuel and retail margins, as well as higher expenses. “The Pilot business is not really doing very well,” Shanahan said. “I’m interested to see what the plan might be to turn that around.”

On the positive side, the BNSF railroad boosted operating earnings rose 6% to $1.4 billion, on lower fuel costs and "improved employee productivity" while revenue from the transportation of agricultural and energy products grew, driven in part by slightly higher grain exports.

Berkshire's $30.8 billion of net income, or $21,413 per Class A share, rose from $26.25 billion a year earlier. Net results include gains and losses on stocks Berkshire is not selling. This adds volatility, and Buffett believes such results are useless in understanding his company.

Also of note: revenue for Berkshire, which is seen by many as a mini model of the broader US economy due to its extensive diversification, grew just 2%, slower than the overall U.S. economy's growth rate. 

Economic uncertainty and waning consumer confidence have been drags, Berkshire said, stalling sales growth at the Clayton Homes homebuilder and reducing revenue from Duracell batteries, Fruit of the Loom apparel and Squishmallows toymaker Jazwares.

"Berkshire, which is often considered a microcosm of the U.S. economy, isn't even keeping up," said Cathy Seifert, a CFRA Research analyst with a "hold" rating on Berkshire. "Investors will struggle to find a catalyst for this stock."

Turning to the company's investment activities, for the 12th straight quarter, Berkshire sold more stocks than it bought for its $283.2 billion equity portfolio...

... whose largest holdings are Apple, American Express and Bank of America.

In fact, at $13.7BN in sales in Q3, this was the most aggressive purging of risk since the same quarter in 2024. 

“There isn’t much opportunity in Buffett’s eyes right now,” said Jim Shanahan, an analyst for Edward Jones.

For Berkshire's bulls this may be vexing, since earlier this year, Buffett appeared to be back on the hunt for deals, with the acquisition of a $1.6 billion stake in UnitedHealth Group and a $9.7 billion deal to buy OxyChem last month. But the famed billionaire remained on the sidelines in the third quarter. Berkshire Hathaway offloaded $6.1 billion of shares during the period. 

Also notable: after a burst of stock buybacks in the aftermath of the covid crash, Berkshire has not repurchased any of its own stock since Q2 2024...

.... which may explain why Berkshire's stock price has significantly lagged the broader market, and is now trading where it was last August 

“I think that sends a very powerful message to shareholders,” said Cathy Seifert, an analyst at CFRA Research. “If they’re not buying back their shares, why should you?”

And since Berkshire isn't buying either others shares, or its own, it had to park all this record cash somewhere; and once again it did so by buying a record $183 billion (net) in treasuries in the quarter, bringing total purchases during the past 12 months to a record $540 billion. 

Berkshire's massive holdings of T-Bills is also why the firm’s net investment income declined 13% to $3.2 billion amid lower short-term interest rates.

As previously reported, Buffett, 95, is set to end his six-decade tenure as chief executive at the end of the year. Vice Chairman Greg Abel, 63, will succeed the legendary investor, though Buffett will remain chairman. Abel is known as a more hands-on manager than Buffett.

It is unclear what he will do with Berkshire's record cash, with options including paying the $1.03 trillion conglomerate's first dividend since 1967. Berkshire is planning to use $9.7 billion of cash to buy Occidental Petroleum's chemicals business, a transaction announced on October 2. James Shanahan, an Edward Jones analyst who upgraded his Berkshire rating to "buy" in September, said the company's resistance to spending more cash during this year's market rally has been disappointing.

"If you feel like stocks are expensive, including your own shares, you're eventually going to be right, but you can be wrong for a long time, and that's what happened here," he said.

And indeed, it's not just Berkshire that has not been buying back its own stock: investors have voted their apprehension about Berkshire's outlook and pending management change by selling its stock. Since Buffett announced on May 3 he would step down, Berkshire's stock price has fallen 12%, and trailed the S&P by 32%. For all of 2025, Berkshire is 11% points behind the index.

"Impatient investors feel an urgent need for Berkshire to deploy its cash, and have been casting their nets elsewhere," said Tom Russo, a partner at Gardner Russo & Quinn in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, which invests $10 billion.

Russo has owned Berkshire stock since 1982 and said Berkshire remains "extremely well-positioned" for the long term. "Berkshire isn't going to deploy capital that won't increase intrinsic value on a per share basis," he said. "Knowing that guides Berkshire means investors won't have to second-guess it."

The conglomerate owns close to 200 businesses that also include chemical and industrial companies, and familiar consumer brands such as Dairy Queen and See's Candies. As noted yesterday, many US businesses which rely on the strength of the consumer has been hammered in recent weeks because while the AI trade continue to soar, the US consumer has hit a brick wall and even Goldman Sachs is warning that the deterioration in K-Shaped economy is starting to spread from the lower income class to America's otherwise unstoppable middle class. 

Berkshire has not made a huge acquisition since paying $32.1 billion for aerospace parts maker Precision Castparts in 2016, a deal which ended up being a disaster. 

"Abel has a tremendous opportunity," Shanahan said. "He has a lot of available cash and by all accounts he is an excellent operator, so he may want to deploy capital in Berkshire's operating businesses to improve their performance."

Still, despite the earnings gains and massive cash pile, the firm’s tepid revenue growth in the period is not going to help investor sentiment, according to CFRA's Seifert.

“I’m struggling to find a catalyst” for an increase in the stock price, she said.

*  *  * CLICK HERE!

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 15:41

Controversial Democratic Lawyer Argues Republican Majorities Are Evidence Of Racism Under The Voting Rights Act

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

There is another bizarre filing from Mark Elias, the controversial Democratic lawyer who helped to secretly fund the infamous Steele Dossier. In a new filing, Elias is challenging the district in New York City with the lone Republican member as violating the state voting rights act. Elias is effectively arguing that voting Republican is evidence of racism.

In the petition, voters bring a New York Voting Rights Act challenge, arguing that the Eleventh District “provides Black and Latino Staten Islanders “less opportunity than other members of the electorate to elect a representative of their choice and influence elections in New York’s 11th Congressional District (“CD-11”), in violation of the prohibition against racial vote dilution in Article III, Section 4(c)(1) of the New York Constitution.”

The filing occurs after New York moved to further gerrymander the state, aiming to eliminate more Republican members of Congress. Across the country, Democrats have pushed for such gerrymandering, but in New York, the efforts are particularly extreme.

Trump received 45 percent of the vote. Republicans are confined to a small handful of districts. It is still too much for Elias.

Elias has not only been sanctioned in past litigation, but past courts have also criticized his group. In Maryland,  Elias filed in support of an abusive gerrymandering of the election districts that a court found violated not only Maryland law but the state constitution’s equal protection, free speech, and free elections clauses. The court found that the map pushed by Elias “subverts the will of those governed.”

It was Elias who made the key funding available to Fusion GPS, which in turn enlisted Steele to produce his now discredited dossier on Trump and his campaign.

During the campaign, reporters did ask about the possible connection to the campaign, but Clinton campaign officials denied any involvement. Weeks after the election, journalists discovered that the Clinton campaign hid payments for the Steele dossier as “legal fees” among the $5.6 million paid to Perkins Coie.

New York Times reporter Ken Vogel said at the time that Elias denied involvement in the anti-Trump dossier. When Vogel tried to report the story, he said, Elias “pushed back vigorously, saying ‘You (or your sources) are wrong.’” Times reporter Maggie Haberman declared, “Folks involved in funding this lied about it, and with sanctimony, for a year.”

*  *  *

*  *  * CLICK HERE

It was not just reporters who inquired about the Clinton campaign’s role in the Steele dossier. John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, was questioned by Congress and categorically denied any contractual agreement with Fusion GPS. Sitting beside him was Elias, who reportedly said nothing to correct the misleading information given to Congress.

Back to the latest Elias filing. There is a pending case before the Supreme Court in Louisiana v. Callais that could curtail or end the use of race to set voting districts to favor black voters under the federal Voting Rights Act.

However, this is a novel claim that, even a gerrymandering state striving to reduce Republican members, a district is racist because it favors the election of a Republican  Thus, as Professor Josh Blackman noted “in a district where Democratic voters cannot elect a Democrat, they can bring a VRA claim, even in an overwhelmingly democratic state where there is not even a scintilla of evidence of racial discrimination.” However, the opposite is not true. In a red state with overwhelming Republican majorities, a district that effectively bars the election of a Republican could not be grounds for a VRA claim.

The filing proclaims that the heavily Democratic gerrymandered state shows that “New York has become a national leader in protecting voting rights.” It emphasizes that the state goes further than the federal VRA:

“the NY VRA does not require the plaintiff to show that a district could have been drawn that would have a majority of residents of a single protected class. A plaintiff need only show that the current district map is responsible for the protected class’s lack of electoral influence based on the existence of racially polarized voting or the totality of the circumstances.”

The filing makes clear that Black and Latino voters support democrats and thus a Republican member favoring the GOP dilutes their votes:

“Black and Latino voters on Staten Island are politically cohesive and consistently and overwhelmingly support the same candidates, which the rest of the electorate consistently opposes. At the same time, the white majority on Staten Island overwhelmingly supports the same candidates and votes as a bloc to usually defeat Black and Latino voters’ candidates of choice.”

In other words (with translation):

“Black and Latino voters on Staten Island are politically cohesive and consistently and overwhelmingly support [Democrats], which the rest of the [District] opposes. At the same time, the white majority on Staten Island overwhelmingly supports [Republicans] and votes as a bloc to usually defeat Black and Latino voters’ [Democratic] candidates of choice.”

So, even in a state that has artificially reduced Republican members and is claimed as a model of districting to enhance minority voters, any district that favors Republicans is still evidence of racist discrimination in voting. Presumably, the only way to truly guarantee the protection of minority voters in New York City is the effective elimination of any Republican member.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 15:10

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak

• Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Luxury Watch Market SITREP For October 

Via Watches Of Espionage,

It's Halloween, which means it's time for a special spooky edition of the W.O.E. SITREP, or Situation Report, our monthly compilation of news and events related to watches, intelligence, national security, and the military, all paired with our riveting commentary. 

From a high-profile heist targeting literal crown jewels in Paris to Vice President JD Vance returning to his Apple Watch-wearing ways to a French politician accused of hiding his luxury watch, to a major slowdown in Swiss watch exports to the US, it's been a big few weeks for the broader Watches of Espionage community. 

As ever, all of that is in addition to a satisfying smattering of watch crime, including the heartwarming story of a would-be luxury watch thief targeting exactly the wrong guy. So please, lean back, check the buckles on your five-point harness, and let's dive into the SITREP. 

$102M in Jewels Stolen From the Louvre in Brazen Heist - Are the Pink Panthers Back?

On Sunday, 19 October, a team of highly choreographed thieves disguised as construction workers carried out one of history's most daring robberies at one of the world's most high-profile locations, the Musée du Louvre in Paris. Arriving shortly after the famous museum's opening, four thieves entered the Louvre with a vehicle-mounted lift, wielding power tools that they would use to open display cases containing jewels with direct connections to French royalty, including Empress Eugénie, wife of Napoleon III. 

Even more important culturally than for their considerable material value, which has been estimated at 88 million Euros (approximately 102 million freedom dollars), the stolen jewels accompanied the thieves on a pair of awaiting scooters, making good their escape. While I am not as dedicated a student (fan) of criminal activity as W.O.E., the heist bears all the hallmarks of the Pink Panthers, a Balkan-based criminal organization responsible for hundreds of millions of dollars in stolen jewels and luxury watches in the early 2000s. 

It's too soon to say whether this is an actual Panthers heist, as the group appears largely disbanded, or Panthers-inspired, but we will be eagerly monitoring any developments going forward. 

Swiss Watch Exports to the US Plummet by 56%

Over the past few months, we've done our best to follow the rapidly evolving global tariff situation, particularly as it relates to Switzerland, the birthplace of so many of the great watches at the center of our Use Your Tools ethos. The current tariff for Swiss watches entering the United States stands at 39%. Established back in August, the weighty figure has cast a long shadow over export statistics. In September, Swiss watch exports to the US dropped by over 55.6% to 157.7M Swiss francs (approximately $198.5M), according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. Even more surprisingly, the United States is no longer the number one market for Swiss watches, with the UK taking over the top spot for the first time in a long time.

If you appreciate Swiss watches and don't want the inevitable price hike brands will likely be forced to implement, this is not great news. As we've speculated before, the 39% figure is likely intended to apply pressure to the Swiss government for bargaining purposes, which appears to be working. However, how this will shake down is anyone's guess. I think everyone on both sides of the aisle can agree we don't want a $10,000 Rolex to suddenly become a $14,000 Rolex, which seems to be where we're headed. Only time will tell. 

JD Vance is Wearing His Apple Watch Again 

In a move eliciting deep sighs among intelligence professionals everywhere, Vice President JD Vance was once again spotted wearing an Apple Watch while en route to the 250th anniversary US Marine Corps celebration at Camp Pendleton in California. After W.O.E. penned an open letter to the VP earlier this year, warning him of the CI risks of the Apple Watch and other connected devices, we had hoped Vance got the message. However, nine months later, I guess we have to take this ride one more time. 

As VP, Vance is a priority intelligence target for bad actors around the world. His Apple Watch constantly transmits data, GPS, audio, heart rate, location, and movement, all potential entry points for foreign intelligence services. Even with Apple's security, any connected device can be hacked, period. For these reasons, CIA and NSA both warn against wearing connected devices during sensitive discussions for a reason. A smartwatch isn't just a gadget to track your Zumba class; it's a live sensor platform on your body.

For Vance, the fix is simple: go analog. A mechanical watch doesn't upload your heartbeat to the cloud or broadcast your location to adversaries. When the time is right, we have plenty of ideas for watches that honor the VP's personal history without placing his personal information and even his safety in jeopardy. 

Bill Clinton & Dubya Wear Watches While Celebrating the Navy's 250th 

Along with the US Marine Corps, the US Navy also celebrated its 250th anniversary with a series of ceremonies and international military exercises. Former presidents Bill Clinton (42) and George W. Bush (43) also got in on the action, penning letters in front of the press honoring the Navy's history. If there's one thing we love about a letter-writing photo op, it is that watches are often front and center, with Clinton wearing his Panerai Radiomir Black Seal PAM00292 for the occasion. An established watch nerd, Clinton has worn watches from Panerai, Cartier, JLC, Audemars Piguet, and other brands. 

Bush, who is historically loyal to his modest white dial Timex Indiglo with an American flag at 12 o'clock, has broken our hearts by wearing an Apple Watch. Sure, he's not the priority intelligence target he would have been while in office, but it still hurts to see an important political figure give up the analog life in favor of monitoring their heart rate or knowing how many theoretical flights of stairs they have climbed. That detour aside, the history of watches and US Presidents is deep, bipartisan, and intriguing. Read our article on the subject HERE. 

Former Cyber Security Exec Accused of Selling Secrets to Russia & Buying Watches with the Proceeds 

In a developing story that we intend to cover with a dedicated Dispatch, a tech executive at a defense contractor has been accused of selling trade secrets to a buyer in Russia to the tune of $1.3 million. The accused, Peter Williams, is the former general manager at Trenchant, a division of a company called L3Harris that develops hacking and surveillance tools, typically for Western government organizations. Between 2022 and 2025, Williams is accused of stealing and selling eight trade secrets to an unnamed Russian party. 

This appears to be espionage, but where it falls under the purview of W.O.E. is in DOJ documents that call for the forfeiture of Williams' home and assets, allegedly purchased with his misbegotten funds. Among the goods ordered forfeited were twenty-two watches, including several replica Rolex models, as well as an authentic Grand Seiko, a couple of Tag Heuers, and several Apple Watches. It's a wild story. Stay tuned for more. 

French Politician Accused Of Hiding Luxury Wristwatch

Diving deep into international politics, Louis Boyard, a prominent member of France's far-left Unbowed party, was accused of removing his watch before a television interview. After being filmed in the act, many online had words for Boyard, including Argentina's radical right-wing President Javier Milei. Boyard is famously critical of the ultra-rich, which led Argentina's president and the rest of the internet Illuminati to accuse the French politician of hypocrisy, assuming the watch he was hiding was a Rolex, Patek Philippe, or something else ostentatious.

All was not as it seemed, however, and Boyard quickly clapped back with a video where he reveals the watch in question was, in fact, a modest Tissot, stating, "Sorry to disappoint you, but I don't have a Rolex, I have this watch, which costs €295. My friends bought it for my 25th birthday, thanks, guys!" While the narrative here didn't play out as intended for Boyard's critics, the situation emphasizes the power of watches as tools of communication in political scenarios. Boyard could be shining us on, but whether it was in fact a $10,000 Rolex or an affordable Tissot PR 100, we can agree that his watch is doing a lot more than simply telling the time. 

Man Robbed of Rolex, Jewelry, & Cash While Pumping Gas

Delving into watch crime, a man in Memphis, TN, was robbed of his $7,000 Rolex, $17,000 in jewelry, and $4,000 in cash while pumping gas at a Circle K. Details are sparse, but the victim told investigators he was getting gas when a man approached from behind, brandished a firearm, and demanded he "empty his pockets" before absconding in a black sedan with tinted windows. Surveillance cameras captured the perpetrator, but no arrests have been made. Given the value of the stolen goods, we can't help but wonder whether this was a targeted crime, but the incident still serves as a reminder to be aware of your surroundings at all times, and maybe, just maybe, don't carry $28k worth of stuff on your person. 

We have discussed the most common modalities for luxury watch theft in a separate article, and this is another reminder that even your local gas station may be unsafe. If you're flexing your AP at an upscale bar in Mayfair or going out in Miami looking for paid evening company with a GMT-Master II on your wrist, you've made yourself a target, but apparently, you will also need your head on a swivel just to wear your Richard Mille to gas up the ride. What is the world coming to? 

Would-be Rolex Thief Targets the Wrong Guy

In a heartwarming case of mistaken identity, an armed man jumped out of a car in West Hollywood, California, hell bent on stealing a Rolex he spotted on the wrist of a pedestrian. Proof that the Uno Reverse Card is a real thing, the intended target turned out to be a former professional fighter who proved reluctant to surrender his timepiece, instead peeling back the lid on a can of whoopass that, despite his assailant's loaded gun, ended with the freshly-pummeled thief pinned to the ground awaiting the arrival of law enforcement. According to eyewitnesses, the man's girlfriend, with whom he had been walking, also got a few licks in. And they say no news is good news. 

Final Thoughts 

As October winds down, the kids go trick-or-treating, and we collectively transition into soup mode, this month's SITREP proves that the broader world of Watches of Espionage remains as unpredictable and entertaining as ever. From jewel thieves channeling Ocean's Eleven in Paris to politicians fumbling their horological optics to a former professional fighter serving a would-be thief his comeuppance and VP Vance once again tempting the SIGINT gods, there's never a dull moment when timepieces intersect with power, crime, and culture. 

Remember, whether you're wearing a $300 Tissot or a $30,000 Rolex, your watch says something about you, sometimes more than you intend. We'll see you next month. 

If you enjoyed this article, please consider signing up for our weekly free newsletter for further updates HERE.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/01/2025 - 14:00