For those who claim that China, India, et al. will bail out the US slowdown by picking up the slack, I bring you this chart of China's Shanghai A shares:
The index reached a high of 6430 back in October 2007. This morning it finished at ~3590. That's a 45% decline in 5 months! If it reminds you of the Nasdaq in 2000, it should. This is the chart of a bubble popping. Large numbers of Chinese "investors" opened brokerage accounts in the last year. Just how many? This is from the February 19 edition of USA Today:
The United States has outsourced the manufacturing of its electronic passports to overseas companies — including one in Thailand that was victimized by Chinese espionage — raising concerns that cost savings are being put ahead of national security, an investigation by The Washington Times has found.
Indian automaker Tata Motors Ltd said it has agreed to buy the Jaguar and Land Rover brands from Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F PRS) (NYSE:F PRA) (NYSE:F) for 2.3 bln usd cash.
New durable goods orders and new single-family home sales both fell sharply in February as recession worsens challenging the Presidential candidates
Two economic reports from the Census Bureau today reflect the deepening recession and an urgent need for the Presidential candidates to get serious about how they will address what could be a long and severe recession with lasting consequences.
Even with prices rising sharply, the nominal value of new orders for durable manufacturing goods fell another -1.7% in February after plunging by -4.7% in January. Nominal values of new durable orders is now down -8.6% since last July to the lowest levels since March 2007.
There are a number of new books out which try to show that more democratic countries have a higher level of economic equality and also a higher level sustained economic growth. There is some question as to whether equality leads to growth or vice versa, but the issue I'd like to discuss is how to measure democracy.
There are many studies and organizations which aim to rate states on an authoritarian - democracy scale, but many also add in civil liberties as well. I have something slightly different in mind.
A dictionary definition.
Democracy: government by the people; a form of government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised directly by them or by their elected agents under a free electoral system.
The problem is that such textbook definitions don't take into account the many ways democracy can be imperfect. I'm aiming at a more realistic measure.
USA Today published LTE on H-1B, L-1 from Dan Stein, posted below:
Opposing view: A corporate 'feeding frenzy'
Visas push is about helping companies rather than workers
By Dan Stein
Today we are watching an amazing spectacle: Many in Congress — including allegedly labor-friendly Democrats — are pushing to increase the importation of foreign labor just as the USA slips into what may be its worst recession in decades.
Why? Because the greed of a handful of multinationals is demanding more and more access to "skilled" foreign labor.
Wall Street banks, brokerages and hedge funds may report $460 billion in credit losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, or almost four times the amount already disclosed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Profits will continue to wane, other analysts said
Consumer expectations are the worst since Dec. 1973 -- in the midst of Watergate and first OPEC oil price hikes
The Conference Board reported today that the expectations component of its closely-watched Index of Consumer Confidence plunged further in March to the lowest levels in 35 years – to December 1973. The overall index which measures both expectations and views on current conditions also plunged again in March to the lowest levels in five years, the eve of the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. (see attached graphic of overall index)
Today’s report shows almost four times as many consumers now expect fewer jobs over the next six months as expect more jobs. More than three times as many expect business conditions to worsen rather than to improve and only 14.9% expect their incomes to rise in the next six months.
One of the key axioms of the "Washington Consensus" is that international trade is good for both parties and is the only viable road to development in the third world. They have been promoting this vision, in one form or another, for 50 years.
There are many critics of this view who illustrate their objections with a large number of case studies. These generally fall into two categories. In the first are the examples of states which have been the object of much international advice and intervention and still haven't done well. Much of Africa falls into this category. The second are those states which have done well, but have ignored most of the policy prescriptions promoted by entities such as the World Bank and IMF. Examples include South Korea and China.
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