University of Michigan consumer sentiment positively surprised for early April. The improvement, at 61.9, while modest,is nevertheless the most positive consumer reading since mid-Black September.
Earlier this week the Census Bureau reported a nasty decline in March retail sales. The report was jarring precisely because private sources of data -- same store sales, mall traffic, car sales -- all had indicated firmness.
And look at what this abrupt decline has wrought: Prof. James Hamilton at econbrowser calls March's poor retail sales "a particularly discouraging development". Prof. Krugman says that "things are still getting worse."
Now let's consider this little nugget: here is the March monthly and early April weekly update from Shoppertrak:
Anyone else notice that most of these negotiations from the auto industry involve squeezing the workers? Nothing about modifying trade agreements or bad cars or their supply chain.....
People close to the talks, however, said the union’s health care trust would most likely end up owning more than 20 percent of Chrysler.
That could make the trust, for a time, the single-largest stakeholder in the automaker.
The proposed alliance with Fiat would give the Italian firm an initial 20 percent stake in Chrysler, with an opportunity to increase its ownership to 35 percent.
The union is also in talks with General Motors about a similar arrangement to allow G.M. to contribute stock to finance half of a $20 billion health care trust for its retirees.
There is a new study on offshore outsourcing I.T. contracts which says instead of saving money by labor arbitraging workers, the costs can actually increase by 20%.
While staff costs may be 40 percent lower in offshore locations, Compass research found these savings were undermined by a 60 percent drop in productivity in operations where the full lifecycle of application development has been outsourced.
"This means that the decision to migrate development, when you include additional management control, increased infrastructure spend, employee attrition, language, and cultural issues, can end up costing up to 20 percent more than current in-house operations," said the consultant group.
Last month housing starts unexpectedly rose from 477,000 (annualized) in January to 583,000. This morning March's data came in at 503,000 annualized.
Last month we were told not to get to excited by "one month's data." We can contain our enthusiasm now. The trendline to 0, apparent in the chart below (not updated with today's data) has resumed:
Bloomberg is reporting the latest Gross Domestic Product figures for China. The figures are below what many expected, pointing to what we've all been talking about. Basically the growth is slowing. Reading this, the fear is that the government is now going to have to refocus from exports to aid in producing real consumption from the average citizen. The stimulus plan in place is helping, but it's not enough.
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- China’s gross domestic product, battered by collapsing exports, grew at the slowest pace in almost 10 years, probably marking the low point for the world’s third-biggest economy.
This article says it all. Our financial geniuses think they are so smart, but we are way behind the curve. All of those foreigners who go to Harvard, MIT, Berkeley, Stanford and all the other elite institutions here pay attention. They are able to assimilate not only how the US thinks, but they are very good at formulating Long Term National Strategies maximizing their positions. On the other hand, our best and brightest just seem to be learning how to get rich in the short term. Unfortunately, the end game indicates that we will all be Chinese one day.
China's State Reserves Bureau (SRB) has instead been buying copper and other industrial metals over recent months on a scale that appears to go beyond the usual rebuilding of stocks for commercial reasons.
the great banking crisis of 2008 is over.
...
All of those plans, no matter how well-intentioned they may seem, are unnecessary now. Wells Fargo (WFC) indicated that it made about $3 billion in the first quarter of the year and declared its buyout of the deeply troubled Wachovia to be a success. Wells Fargo (WFC) said that the low cost of money from the government combined with a surging demand for mortgages was all the medicine that it required.
It's all True! Wells Fargo Bank announced an immense $3 Billion profit last quarter.
Shortly afterward Goldman Sachs announced a $1.8 Billion profit.
Suddenly everything is coming up roses on Wall Street.
At least if you are willing to believe total bullsh*t.
The 401k system is a generational scam as it exists. Yet before the Baby Boomers start to retire, your investors are already taking huge losses.
U.S. Representative George Miller, a California Democrat, held a hearing in February to highlight what he described as the shortcomings of 401(k) plans. Miller, chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee, called the plans “little more than a high-stakes crapshoot.”
Alicia Munnell, director of the Boston College center, testified about the harm the decline in stock prices had done to account balances. The center’s data, which is awaiting publication, was an attempt to quantify the extent of the damage.
This morning the BLS reported that consumer inflation fell 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in March, (rising 0.2% NSA) meaning that year-over-year prices have fallen -0.4% into deflation. YoY consumer deflation is only surpassed by 1949 (and ever so slightly in 1954-55) in the post-Depression era. This graph, comparing CPI with PPI for finished goods and comodities (update: showing today's CPI) shows that after a brief pause, deflationary pressures deepened - ever so slightly - in March:
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