Remember all of that rhetoric on the campaign trail about outsourcing and trade agreements?
Guess what the Obama administration is doing? Fast Tracking Trade with the most common landing place for your job, India.
The United States has announced a new programme to fast-track high-technology trade with India from which General Electric's India division will be the first Indian company to benefit.
"This is an important step in enabling a more rapid and efficient flow of sensitive technology between India and the United States," US Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke announced at the US-India Business Council's 34th Anniversary "Synergies Summit" Wednesday.
"This is an important step in enabling a more rapid and efficient flow of sensitive technology between India and the United States," Locke said.
The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased sharply for the second consecutive month in May.... The index rose 1.2 percent (a 2.4 percent annual rate) between November 2008 and May 2009, the first time the index has increased over a six-month period since April 2007....
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The Conference Board LEI [,... b]ased on revised data, ... increased 1.1 percent in April and decreased 0.3 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the leading economic index increased 1.2 percent, with five out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50 percent).
That the LEI are now positive on both a 3 and 6 month basis is a big deal. More later with graphs.
This morning the BLS reported that consumer inflation increased +0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in May, (rising 0.3% non-seasonally adjusted). Year-over-year prices have fallen -1.3% into deflation. YoY consumer deflation is only surpassed by 1949 in the post-Depression era.
The first 5 months of inflation data are still in accord with the optimistic scenario I laid out in January:
In the Optimistic scenario, the fiscal and monetary stimuli, together with intelligent new political leadership in Washington, halt the meltdown perhaps by mid-year, and wage reductions remain the exception. In the Pessimistic scenario, the stimuli fail, and wage reductions spread, leading to a wage-price deflationary spiral.
If you are out of work like me, and hoping that the Depression will end soon so you can get a job, you better develop a Plan B.
A recent analysis by a trio of economists with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco predicted a jobless recovery on a nationwide basis, following a pattern that appeared after the recessions of the early 1990s and 2001.
Most economic predictions can be taken with a grain of salt. If you were as wrong on your job as often as economists are on their jobs, you would get fired very quickly.
On the other hand, it's common sense to look at recent historical trends and project patterns from them. Given that premise, let's look at what we can expect in terms of employment.
At this point, many people here are aware that a number of states have deep budget deficits that threaten to bring shutdowns as early as August. I think that throwing some numbers in really shows the depth of the problem as well.
This map shows the gap between expected 2009 state revenues and the budget for the year in percentage terms. California has a real problem, as do several other states.
The Obama administration is pre-announcing the regulatory reforms announcements (see their outline below), so much so one might miss what is coming out of Congressional hearings on the topic.
I believe that only ostriches can now deny the need for establishing a federal insurance resource center and a basic federal insurance regulatory structure.
Geither's response? Let's ignore the entire insurance industry. What's in a name? (AIG)
I am not sure how I came across this idea of Universal Living Wage. It is an idea that should get more attention particularly from policy makers in Washington. It addresses many of the issues related to the current shortcomings of our current minimum wage.
Some people might be saying how can you talk about minimum wage increases when we have unemployment (official) at 9.4%. I say to them: "go suck an egg". The increase in the minimum wage, currently at $6.55 per hour and is expected to go up to $7.25 per hour on July 24, 2009, may have actually created some economic stimulus.
Sure, I can feel for almost anyone who gets fired and has their career cut short. But for every rule there is an exception.
The CIA has reportedly cut its ties to the two psychologists credited for being the architects of the CIA's brutal interrogation program after 9/11, a news report said yesterday. Dr. James Mitchell and Dr. Bruce Jessen, who suggested and supervised waterboarding at secret prisons around the world have been told their services are no longer needed. Mitchell and Jessen, according to their associates, boasted of being paid $1,000 a day by the CIA to oversee the use of the technique on top al Qaeda suspects.
Their firings came during a purge by CIA Director Leon Panetta of all contractors involved in the interrogation program. In early April, Panetta told CIA employees that contractors involved in the interrogation program and secret prisons were being "promptly terminated."
The industrial production index numbers are out and it ain't pretty, a 1.1% decline in May with a Q1 decrease of 1.6% and a 13.4% decrease for the year. Capacity is at a whopping 68%, an all time low. Even during the 1982 recession the low was 70% for industrial capacity utilization.
Construction is the worst of the lot, as to be expected with the burst of the housing bubble, at 21.5% for the yearly drop.
More tables and data at the Federal Reserve. Click on graphs to zoom.
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