August 2010

Friday Movie Night - The Great Depression

hot buttered popcorn It's Friday Night! Party Time!   Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!

 

Tonight is quite a find. The entire 7-part 1993 PBS series on The Great Depression is online (for how long, one can never tell so watch it while you can!). I happen to love documentaries on this time period and by far this is the best of them.

A Job at Ford

 

 

Raiding retirement just to survive

It appears especially the middle aged, you know those ones who desperately need a job and are denied, are raiding their 401ks. From Fidelity Investments Q2 2010 statistics on 401k, retirement accounts:

the percentage of participants either initiating a loan or a hardship withdrawal increased. Loans initiated over the past 12 months grew to 11% of total active participants from about 9% one year prior. The portion of participants with loans outstanding also increased two full percentage points in the second quarter to 22%. The average initial loan amount as of the end of the second quarter was $8,650 with an average loan duration of three and half years.

Frankly I thought this number would be much higher, for we have horrific stories of people posting online their suicide notes. Maybe it is because those who are going homeless already blew past any retirement savings. Regardless, a sign of the times and this is only people who have retirement savings to tap into.

Initial weekly unemployment claims for August 14, 2010

While initial weekly unemployment claims is a volatile number, subject to revisions, today's report is not good news. Initial weekly unemployment claims hit the magic number, 500,000. From the jobless claims report:

In the week ending Aug. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 500,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 488,000. The 4-week moving average was 482,500, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average of 474,500.

Below is the log of initial weekly unemployment claims, so one can get a better sense of the rise and fall of the numbers. A log helps remove some statistical noise. As we can see we have a step rise during the height of the recession, but then a leveling, not a similar decline and now this increase. This does not bode well for any sort of real recovery, which must include jobs.

 

initial claims aug 14 log

 

Below is a graph of initial weekly unemployment claims since November 2009. As you can see, we're literally back to 10 months ago.

 

initial claims aug 14 10 months

 

25 companies responsible for 700,000 lost jobs

Daily Finance has compiled a list, from Challenger and Gray layoff data, of the top 25 companies with the biggest job losses this recession.

From The Layoff Kings: The 25 Companies Responsible for 700,000 Lost Jobs author Douglas McIntyre, compiled the list below. I've added whether or not that company is known for offshore outsourcing jobs. The actual jobs offshore outsourced is unknown, if some ambitious researcher wishes to correlate layoffs with jobs created offshore, or offshore outsourcing contracts written, we'd appreciate the specifics. From the list we have, these top companies, the number of layoffs and whether or not they are an offshore outsourcer.

  1. General Motors, 107,357, outsourcer
  2. Citigroup, 73,056 , outsourcer
  3. Hewlett-Packard, 47,540, outsourcer
  4. Circuit City Stores, 41,495
  5. Merrill Lynch, 40,650, outsourcer (BoA)
  6. Verizon Wireless, 39,000, outsourcer
  7. Pfizer, 31,771, outsourcer
  8. Merck & Co., 24,400, outsourcer
  9. Lehman Brothers, 23,340
  10. Caterpillar, 23,024, outsourcer
  11. JPMorgan Chase, 22,852, outsourcer
  12. Starbucks, 21,316
  13. AT&T, 18,401, outsourcer
  14. Alcoa, 17,655, outsourcer

When laws are for breaking

A relatively obscure case in Norway shows just how different the United States is from the rest of the industrialized world.
The Oslo Stock Exchange was halted by unusual trade action. It seems two Norwegians were trying to manipulate stock prices.

We believe the two are behind a number of cases of price manipulation. They have set purchase and sales orders that have not been real, because they have had another motive, namely to move prices, "said Stenberg.

In other words, they did exactly what every single bank on Wall Street does every single day. In New York it is called High Frequency Trading. In Oslo it is called getting six years of jail time for breaking the law.

So who is right? Is Norway some Socialist Hell for not allowing the free market to work, allowing faster traders to skim profits from slower traders? Or are laws in the United States too lax, allowing people to take money from the system without adding any value, thus destabilizing the economy?

To answer that we need to look at a couple more examples.

Suicides Spike for long term unemployed

While listening to cable TV idiots prattle on about the wedge issue du jour, we have this:

There is no saying how many suicides the recession has caused.

During the Great Depression, the suicide rate increased about 20 percent, from 14 to 17 per 100,000 people. The Asian economic crisis in 1997 led to an estimated 10,400 additional suicides in Japan, Hong Kong and Korea, with suicides spiking more than 40 percent among some demographic groups. But such statistics can mislead, social scientists say. Joblessness does not cause suicide. Rather, it correlates: Depressed persons tend to lose their jobs due to poor work performance, and a few also commit suicide. Jobless people tend to turn to alcohol, worsening their depression, and increasing the chances that they harm themselves. Still, academic studies show that suicide rates tend to move with the unemployment rate. Researchers in New Zealand found that the unemployed were up to three times as likely to commit suicide, with middle-aged men the most likely.

So how many suicides are associated with the recession? Nobody knows, not yet. The statistics lag about three years, so the official Center for Disease Control numbers still predate the financial crisis. Right now, therefore, the reports remain anecdotal.

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