December 2017

November Personal Spending Up 0.6%, Two Months PCE Adds 171 Basis Points to Q4 GDP

The November report on Personal Income and Outlays from the Bureau of Economic Analysis includes the month's data for our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 69% of the month's GDP, and with it the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, and which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.

Consumer Prices Rose 0.4% in November on Higher Energy Costs

The consumer price index increased by 0.4% in November, as higher prices for energy were only slightly offset by lower prices for groceries and clothing.  The Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the seasonally adjusted price index rose 0.4% in November after it had risen 0.1% in October, 0.5% in September, 0.4% in August, 0.1% in July, and after it was unchanged in June and had fallen 0.1% in May.

OPEC oil output at a 6 month low; global oil output at a 12 month high

We’re going to start by reviewing OPEC's December Oil Market Report (covering November OPEC & global oil data), which was released on Wednesday of last week, and which is now available as a free download.  The first table from this report that we'll look at is from page 64 of that OPEC pdf, and it shows oil production in thousands of barrels per day for each of the current OPEC members over the recent years, quarters and months, as the column headings indicate.