durable goods

Durable Goods (M3) for November 2009 - New Orders Flatline, up 0.2%

The Durable Goods report (M3) for November was released on December 24th. The two graphs below show Durable goods since 1992 and then just for this recession period. Regardless of the trend, one can see we have a long way to go on new orders to get back to some real growth indicators.

M3 Nov. 09


Durable Goods (M3) for July 2009

Manufacturers' Shipments, New Orders and Inventories (M3) for July 2009 numbers are out and New orders for durable goods increased 4.9%.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $7.8 billion or 4.9 percent to $168.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the third increase in the last four months and the largest percent increase since July 2007. This followed a 1.3 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 4.3 percent.

Yeah, Yippee, rah, recovery here we come. Oops, not so fast.

Firstly, the above initial press release only gives aggregate data points.

Factory Orders for June 2009

The Commerce department released Manufacturers Shipments, Orders & Inventories today. This is the full report, as usual, the devil is in the details.

New orders for manufactured goods in June, up four of the last five months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $349.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.1 percent May increase.

Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.3 percent. Shipments, up following ten consecutive monthly decreases, increased $4.9 billion or 1.4 percent to $358.3 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent May decrease.

Unfilled orders, down nine consecutive months, decreased $6.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $740.2 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since November 2001-July 2002. This followed a 0.3 percent May decrease.

Durable Goods up 0.8%

Commerce Dept press release.

It appears that excluding transportation, Durable Goods dropped 1.1% and excluding defense, they dropped 0.6%.

So, it appears new orders for aircraft came in and saved the day, otherwise, the report is more in line with a recession.

Inventories were also up:

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up fourteen of the last fifteen months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $340.2 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.8 percent August increase.

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