U.S. household

Unemployment Rate Drops Due to Almost Half a Million More Not in Labor Force

The December unemployment rate dropped on almost half a million more people considered not part of the labor force.  The official unemployment rate is now 5.6%, a -0.2 drop from last month.  The labor participation rate went back to 38 year record lows and is 62.7%.  From a year ago, the number of people considered not in the labor force has increased by 1.2 million those considered employed grew by 2.7 million.

November Employment Report Household Survey Shows Static Statistics

The BLS Npvember current population survey unemployment report shows almost a static situation from last month, unlike the reported payroll gains portion of the jobs report.  The unemployment rate did not change and is still 5.8%.  The labor participation rate also did not change from the very low, 62.8%.  Even the unemployed's increase of 115,000 is statistically insignificant.

October Household Survey Shows Employment Situation Truly Improving

The BLS October current population survey unemployment report shows steady improvement in the unemployment situation continuing in 2014.  The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%, a rate not seen since July 2008.  The unemployment rate dropped another one tenth of a percentage point on a dramatic monthly increase in employed as well as a drop in those unemployed.  Those not in the labor force also declined for the month.

The Magical Shrinking Unemployment Rate

The September current population survey unemployment report dropped to 5.9% and all sing hallelujah the job crisis is over.  The unemployment rate hasn't been this low since July 2008.  The unemployment rate dropped two tenths of a percentage point in a month, but why it dropped is more interesting.  The main reason is the decline in those participating in the jobs market.

Winter Polar Vortex Didn't Freeze The Unemployment Report

The February current population survey unemployment report is just plain weird and it is not due to weather.  First, the unemployment rate is an artificial 6.7%.  The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points due to more people being officially counted as unemployed.  Yet, the employment level is basically static, almost unchanged from last month, along with the labor participation rate.

Unemployment Rate 6.7% As Half Million More Not In Labor Force

The December current population survey unemployment report is just plain weird.  First, the unemployment rate dropped another 0.3 percentage points to 6.7%, the lowest unemployment rate since October 2008.  The unemployment rate dropped because over half a million people dropped out of the labor force.  The unemployment rate's dramatic decline for 2013 is due primarily to people no longer being counted.

Unemployment Rate Drops Dramatically to 7.0%

Welcome to the wild weird current population survey unemployment report where dramatic monthly swings cause paranoia and doubt.  We shed light on these woolly figures and this month there is much to flash that light on.  First, the unemployment rate dropped 0.3 percentage points to 7.0%.  This is the lowest unemployment rate since November 2008.

Exploring the Wild, Weird World of Employment Numbers From Statistical Space

It's like someone pulled the unemployment rate out of a Star Trek transporter, as if America entered a time warp machine and we moved to another dimension through a worm hole. A 0.3 percentage point drop to 7.8% makes no sense when there were only 114,000 jobs added. Captain, can the unemployment rate be right and we really did defy the laws of statistics?

We want to point to something which might in part explain what happened this month with the household survey statistics. That is how long someone holds a job. We don't have monthly statistics on job tenure, yet it could very well be that finally, people are working longer at a job. The never ending Schindler's List attitude towards U.S. workers may have abated. The U.S. has disposable worker syndrome, where people are laid off and fired for no damn good reason at all. It's a fact of the American work life while one has a job one week, there is no guarantee one will have a job the next.

To wit, let's look at another obscure BLS statistic, labor force status flows. This is the number of people flowing from being in the labor force, out of the labor force, employed and unemployed on a monthly basis. Below is a graph of the monthly changes of people who moved into employment from already having a job, not being counted at all, or being part of the official unemployed since 2006.

flows to employment

$1.3 Trillion of Household Wealth Evaporates

U.S. household net worth decreased by $1.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2009. This was due in part to decreases in stock market and real estate values. The gory details are here.

Here is a table for some context:

Year Net Worth

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