A Return to 2008 Levels - Initial Unemployment Claims were 366,000 for week of December 10th, 2011

Initial weekly unemployment claims for the week ending on December 10th, 2011 were 366,000. The DOL reports this as a decrease of 19,000 from last week. The previous week was revised, from 381,000 to 385,000, an increase of 4,000. The week of May 31st, 2008, initial unemployment claims were 365,000, which makes today's initial claims a 3 and a half year low. For the first time we see an initial claims report return to a level before the great recession job slaughter.



Every week initial unemployment claims are revised. One simply cannot compare the reported numbers on a week to week basis due to the lag in States reporting claims data and revisions, plus the fact this is a 1 week time window, versus a monthly one. One needs to at minimum look at the 4-week moving average, which is below the magic 400,000 number and dropping, now 387,750. This is 6,500 below last week's 4-week average of 394,250.

Below is the 4 week moving average, set to a logarithmic scale to remove even more statistical noise, for the last year. We have a clear downward trend, which is great news.



The magic number to show job creation is at minimum, below 400,000 initial unemployment claims, per week. Most Economists will quote 375,000 as the magic number to indicate job growth.

Below is the mathematical log of initial weekly unemployment claims, so one can get a better sense of the rise and fall of the numbers. A log helps remove some statistical noise, it's kind of an averaging. As we can see we have a step rise during the height of the recession, but then a leveling... Every week initial unemployment insurance claims has been hovering around 400,000, refusing to really drop, a never ending labor malaise for most of the time after the recession ended in July 2009. Seeing a steep decline over time, we should finally rejoice. Let's all hope we continue to get this Christmas present.



Below is the 4 week moving average, set to a log scale, from April 1st, 2007. We are nowhere near pre-recession initial weekly unemployment claims levels, but finally a glimmer of hope.



Weekly initial unemployment claims are statistically noisy, the numbers are always revised, there is large variance because it's a weekly data report instead of monthly, and only through a long term pattern can one say anything about the unemployment situation. While this report is great news, need to see a strong trend.

Continuing unemployment claims dropped but bear in mind people can plain being running out of benefits.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 3 was 3,603,000, an increase of 4,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,599,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,666,250, a decrease of 5,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,671,250.

In the week ending November 29th, not seasonally adjusted, the raw number was 7,449,507 official people obtaining some sort of unemployment insurance benefit. Officially, there are 13.303 million unemployed and if one takes all of the people who want a job, including those stuck in part-time because they can't get anything else, the number is over 29 million.

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