March 2010

Oil Demand to Exceed Supply by 2014?

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A U.K. former scientist is saying Oil reserves are exaggerated by 1/3:

The scientist and researchers from Oxford University argue that official figures are inflated because member countries of the oil cartel, OPEC, over-reported reserves in the 1980s when competing for global market share.

Their new research argues that estimates of conventional reserves should be downgraded from 1,150bn to 1,350bn barrels to between 850bn and 900bn barrels and claims that demand may outstrip supply as early as 2014. The researchers claim it is an open secret that OPEC is likely to have inflated its reserves, but that the International Energy Agency (IEA), BP, the Energy Information Administration and World Oil do not take this into account in their statistics.

The Global Agenda: Privatizing the Planet -- Part Deux

SDRs, PPPs, the IMF, UN and World Bank

In the first installment of The Global Agenda: Privatizing the Planet, I attempted to establish the suggestion of the underlying foundation and causation for Public-Private Partnerships (PPP), that being debt financing, which propagates debt trading, debt swaps and various and sundry securitizations and securitized financial instruments.

Within this post, I shall attempt to establish the connection between the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR), the creation of debt and those private-public partnerships as debt-affiliated vehicles which are a major force in the privatization of everything.

Admittedly, these connections may appear tenuous to some, but it is definite food for thought.

Exhibit 1

From an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, dated March of 2006:

63. Public/ private partnerships (PPPs) are currently not covered in statistical guidelines. At the January/February 2006 meeting, the AEG agreed that the PPPs are sufficiently important to be described in the revised SNA. It also agreed that a list of indicators would be useful to help determine the economic owner of the fixed assets associated with a PPP but that it was necessary to examine arrangements on a case-by-case basis. An annex on PPP will be included in the SNA, with an understanding to keep abreast of developments in international accounting standards.[1]

Exhibit 2

2.4 million jobs lost due to China from 2001-2008

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That's right. 2.4 million jobs lost in 8 years can be directed attributed to China.

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, 2.4 million jobs have been lost or displaced in the United States as a result of the burgeoning trade deficit with that nation

Dr. Robert Scott, International Economist for the Economic Policy Institute, has a new paper, Unfair China Trade Costs Local Jobs and it's well researched, damning. The AAM has published the report in an easy scrolling presentation on the AAM website.

The research paper's bullet points are reprinted below:

A financial reform political circus

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While the Senate and House have debated the health care reform endlessly, fighting tooth and nail at every step, all the while being broadcast on network television, the financial reform bill is quietly moving along under the radar. On the same day that Senator Dodd proposed his sweeping reform bill, it passed committee.

“The bill that finally passes on the floor will be a much more business-friendly bill,” Miller said today. “They won’t get a bill done until Dodd and Shelby agree on the compromise, but Republicans do want to get a bill done this year. So there’s incentive for both sides to come to agreement.”

The fact that the bill is going to be watered down even more is a sad statement to an on-going tragedy.

The Global Agenda: Privatizing the Planet

Debt, Debt Trading and Why It Is Important

You don’t have to repay the advance we gave you last week, provided you spend half of it next week.

A bit of history on debt from Prof. Buckley of the University of New South Wales (Australia),

The beginning was in the early 1980s. And in the beginning were bad loans, and from the loins of these bad loans sprang debt-equity exchanges, which quickly begat debt-for-nature exchanges, and then debt-for-education exchanges, and most recently, debt-for-health exchanges. And today, when all the begatting has been done, the progeny are known mostly as debt-for-development exchanges, or sometimes as debt-for-investment projects (by those who wish to suggest for the technique a more commercial focus).

Where is the exchange when a rich country offers to cancel some of its loans to a poor country, if the poor country spends money on a development project? That’s like our saying to our daughter, ‘You don’t have to repay the advance we gave you last week, provided you spend half of it next week’. [1]

Thus we observe early forms of debt trading, of sorts.

In the debt-for-health segment of the professor's report, we also note:

The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, is another UN initiative. It is a public-private partnership which seeks to finance public health initiatives in developing countries.[1]

The honorable professor mentioned the early 1980s, so let us examine a presidential-level cabinet meeting which was taking place in the White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, USA, at that time.

Dodd Planning Vote on Financial Reform TODAY, Massive "Managers Amendment"

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Reform Ramrod! If you can believe this, they are planning on voting on Dodd's bill at 5pm EST. Attached is Dodd's manager's amendment. So, this is being introduced, no time to read it and they are going to vote this bill out of committee, now.

This is bad, we know the bill already has gapping holes on derivatives, which are labeled the swiss cheese derivative reform. Yet there is no time to read this latest amendment, and clearly the bill is just being ramrodded out of committee with no debate.

While of course Republicans are out to make it much worse, even Tim Geithner (of all people), thinks this bill is ineffective and is demanding real financial reform instead of a watered down bill:

Underemployment hits 20%

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Many people are probably not aware that the BLS isn't the only agency that makes surveys of unemployment levels. Gallup does too, and today it released a new report.

Gallup's underemployment measure hit 20.0% on March 15 -- up from 19.7% two weeks earlier and 19.5% at the start of the year...
Gallup classifies Americans as underemployed if they are unemployed or working part-time but wanting full-time work. On March 15, Gallup's unemployment rate was 10.3% -- essentially the same as the 10.4% of March 1, but down from 10.8% in mid-February. However, this decline in the percentage of unemployed Americans was more than offset over the past 30 days by an increase in the percentage of those working part-time but wanting full-time work, from 9.0% in mid-February to 9.7% in mid-March.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - February 2010, -0.64

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Cfnai

The Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined in February, to -0.64.

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to –0.64 in February, down from –0.04 in January.
Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index deteriorated, and only the sales, orders, and inventories category made a positive contribution.

The three month moving average is also down, -0.39 but is still at it's highest point since December 2007, the mark point start of this recession.

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