July 2012

Real Consumer Spending Decreased -0.1%, But Wages Get a Boost for June 2012

Consumer spending was unchanged from last month, but after taking price increases into account, decreased by -0.1%. Personal consumption expenditures are often called consumer spending by the press. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, are about 71% of GDP. Real means chained to 2005 dollars, thus adjusted for inflation. Below is a graph of real PCE.

 

Case-Shiller May 2012 Index Shows Lowest Annual Home Prices Drop in 18 Months

The May 2012 S&P Case Shiller home price index shows a -0.7% price drop from a year ago for over 20 metropolitan housing markets and a -1.0% decline for the top 10 housing markets from May 2011. This is the smallest annual price decline in 18 months.

Student Loan Debt Time Bomb

ozzieharrietAh, the American Dream.  Go to college, work hard, graduate, get a good job, career and then you'll be set for life with high earnings, enough money to buy a home, raise a family and retire comfortably.

Oops, rewind, this isn't the Ozzie and Harriet show, it's real life.  Did you know student debt is one of the few debts one cannot declare bankruptcy on, no matter what?  That literally you have to be in a pine box, or close to it, to have your debt forgiven?  That 53.6% of those under the age of 25 with a four year college degree or better cannot find a job?

Student loan debt is now the next great bubble, threatening the U.S. economy as the mortgage crisis did. The NACBA released a study and calls student loan debt the next financial crisis, on the level of the mortgage crisis.

  • College seniors who graduated with student loans in 2010 owed an average of $25,250, up five percent from the previous year. Borrowing has grown far more quickly for those in the 35-49 age group, with school debt burden increasing by a staggering 47 percent.

Job Study Tells a Terrible Tale for U.S. Workers

The BLS released a longitude survey, which tracks the last of the pack of baby boomers and their jobs over 30 years. One the most damning findings is how many people middle aged are lasting in a job. When late baby boomers were in their 40's, a third of them had jobs which didn't last a year and almost 70% of 'em were out of a job in less than five years.

European Bank Rescue Package May Be Announced This Coming Week

eurozoneThe planets are aligning for another round of debt monetization in Europe, backed up by the United States. Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, is reportedly looking at expanding the amount of Spanish government debt he can buy. He is also said to be considering another LTRO – Long Term Refinancing Operation, which is the mechanism the central bank uses to buy debt from private sector banks.

That Spain needs help is beyond doubt. The global bond market has been fleeing Spanish government debt as rapidly as it can, forcing yields to the 7.3% area, which is beyond the point where the Spanish government can continue to pay interest from its own revenues without severely cutting back on domestic expenditures. The same situation is playing out at the local level in Spain: Andalusia and other provinces have been besieging Madrid for help in meeting the interest burden on their own debts. There is also talk that medium to small size Spanish commercial banks are out of liquid collateral, and are unable to meet further collateral calls on the global markets.

Ron Paul's Last Stand - Audit the Fed

audit fedCongressman Ron Paul has been after the Federal Reserve for decades. His last great act before retirement, to audit the Fed, just passed the House of Representatives. All but one Republican voted for the bill with Democrats split down the middle. Our more corporate Democrats voted against the bill. Now the Senate has vowed to not take up the bill.

A senior Democratic Senate leadership aide said there are no plans to bring the bill up in the Senate, but didn’t rule out an attempt by Republicans to seek a vote on the measure as part of another piece of legislation. The Senate would be almost certain to defeat it given the Democratic majority in the chamber.

Dems are busy claiming an audit would politicize monetary policy:

"This bill would instead jeopardize the Fed's independence by subjecting its decisions on interest rates and monetary policy to GAO audit," said House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). "I agree with [Fed] Chairman [Ben] Bernanke that congressional review of the Fed's monetary policy decisions would be a 'nightmare scenario,' especially judging by the track record of this Congress when it comes to governing effectively.

New Home Sales Plunge -8.4% for June 2012

June New Residential Single Family Home Sales declined by -8.4%, or 350,000 annualized sales. This monthly percentage change has a ±12.4% error margin. May's single family new home sales were significantly revised down, from +7.6% to +6.7%, or 382,000 annualized sales. April was revised up to 358,000 from 343,000 as was March, to 352,000.

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