January 2014

Mortgage Delinquencies Rose 2.6% in November as Foreclosure Starts Fell to a Post Crisis Low

One monthly report that was released this week that we regularly review is the Mortgage Monitor for November from LPS (pdf) which includes quite thorough and detailed graphics covering the spectrum of information on US mortgages.  As per usual, we'll be focusing on mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, which are the crisis aspects of his report.

Industrial Production up 6.8% in Q4, yet Capacity Stunted Still

The Federal Reserve Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report shows a 0.3% increase in industrial production.  Manufacturing alone grew, a 0.4% gain for the month, while utilities slid down by -1.4%.  Mining was up 0.8%.  Industrial production finally surpassed pre-recession levels this month.  The G.17 industrial production statistical release is also known as output for factories and mines.

Inflation Low In Spite of Rising Rent and Gas Prices

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% for December as the price of gas increased 3.1% and the cost of housing oneself is on the rise.   CPI measures inflation, or price increases.  This is the highest monthly increase in six months, yet for the year inflation is low.  Overall energy costs increased 2.1% in December where price increases are needed least.

 

Retail Sales Up 0.2% for December as Holiday Sales Grow By 3.8%

December 2013 Retail Sales increased 0.2% for the month on groceries, booze, gas and clothing.  Retail sales have now increased 4.1% from a year ago.  Electronics & Appliances tanked with their sales down -2.5% for December.  Auto sales plunged -1.9% from the previous month, but that's OK, they are still up 6.2% for the year.  Holiday sales increased 3.8%, a fine showing of more consumerism in America.

December's Dismal Payrolls Mark Recession Six Year Anniversary

The BLS employment report shows total nonfarm payroll jobs gained were a paltry 74,000 for December 2013, with private payrolls adding 87,000 jobs.  Government jobs decreased by -13,000.  Worse, 40,400 of jobs gained were temporary ones.  That's over half, 54.6%, of December's jobs were temporary.

Unemployment Rate 6.7% As Half Million More Not In Labor Force

The December current population survey unemployment report is just plain weird.  First, the unemployment rate dropped another 0.3 percentage points to 6.7%, the lowest unemployment rate since October 2008.  The unemployment rate dropped because over half a million people dropped out of the labor force.  The unemployment rate's dramatic decline for 2013 is due primarily to people no longer being counted.

Fifty Years Later the War on Poverty Is Lost

Fifty years ago Lyndon B. Johnson declared War on Poverty.  Great strides were made.  Between 1964 and 1965 Medicaid and Medicare were enacted, food stamps made permanent, a flurry of work and volunteer grants were passed, and educational opportunities were made more egalitarian.  Unfortunately later administrations have been tearing apart Johnson's weapons against poverty one by one.

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