Robert Oak's blog
About Those 1.252 Million People Who Dropped Out of the Labor Force
The January unemployment report created quite a stir. Many believed the BLS had simply dropped 1,252,000 people out of the labor force, discarded like trash. Is the BLS an evil doer as so many declare, or could the culprit possibly be the 2010 Census?
We already showed how comparisons between December and January cannot be done due to the incorporation of the 2010 Census data and the yearly population controls, benchmarks and seasonal adjustments incorporated into the January unemployment statistics.
While there is no mythical 1.252 million dropping out of the labor force, there are some highly unusual numbers in the BLS population controls.
The BLS starts the January month with revised population estimates, seasonal adjustments and benchmarks. This year the 2010 Census data was also incorporated into the BLS statistics. They do not go backwards in these revisions. The BLS does not backwards adjust December 2011. Here are the BLS population controls for 2012:
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Who's the Big Bad Wolf Now on Foreclosure Fraud and Abuse?
We all know the story of the three little pigs and the big, bad wolf.
Little pig, little pig, let me come in.
No, no, not by the hair on my chinny chin chin.
Then I'll huff, and I'll puff, and I'll blow your house in.
To date that's been the story of the banks as the big bad wolf, blowing houses down all over America with fraudulent foreclosures, viewing home owners as tasty piglet snacks of profit.
Will we ever see role reversal in this never ending grim tale? Will the big bad wolf finally be our government, blowing down the Banks' house of mortgage and foreclosure fraud? Can the government at least hand Americans just a few bricks at least? It's yet to be seen.
The latest seems to be dueling events. One the one hand, there is a foreclosure fraud settlement in the works for all 50 States, which supposedly gives banks immunity and waves all future legal actions. Yet at the same time, the New York Attorney General filed a civil fraud lawsuit against three major banks over MERS.
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Saturday Reads Around the Internets - Recession's Destructive Path
Welcome to the weekly roundup of great articles, facts and figures. These are the weekly finds that made our eyes pop.
Nine Cities Nearly Destroyed by the Recession
As if you don't need more stark reality on how bad the recession damaged America, a report by IHS Global Insight for the Conference of Mayors reveals nine cities nearly destroyed by this recession.
The nation continues to be mired in an anemic, jobless recovery. And according to a report commissioned by the United States Conference of Mayors, and prepared by IHS Global Insight, many regions in the country still continue to lose jobs. Of the 363 U.S. metropolitan regions reviewed by IHS, only 61 will fully recover all the jobs that were lost during the recession by the end of this year. The rest will recover far fewer — the average city will only recover roughly 40% of jobs lost from peak employment.
Getting It Wrong on the BLS Employment Report
The December to January unemployment statistics are often reported wrong in the press. We're sorry, god love ya, but these articles are plain incorrect. People like to compare the month to month change in population, the number of people no longer considered part of the labor force and other data. The grave mistake made by so many in the press and elsewhere is not realizing annual population adjustments are placed in the January data, not distributed evenly across the entire year, or backwards applied and that's why one cannot compare these two months. Below is a graph of non-institutional population monthly change. This is the number from where all other unemployment statistics are derived. It represents people 16 and older, not locked up somewhere, in a medical facility or in the military.

See those huge three spikes in the above graph? That's when the latest Census, taken every 10 years, has been incorporated into the data series. What happens is almost a do over, starting with the next year and you see a huge discontinuity in the data when the Census has been incorporated into the non-institutional population statistic. Believe me, we did not get a streaming horde of illegal aliens in one month, nor did everyone decide to give spontaneous birth. Those spikes simply represent the tacking on of population controls to reflect the latest Census.
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Ben! Say It Ain't So! America Could Be Like Greece?
Today Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke testified before the House Budget Committee. The quote which implies America could become Greece is this:
Even the prospect of unsustainable deficits has costs, including an increased possibility of a sudden fiscal crisis. As we have seen in a number of countries recently, interest rates can soar quickly if investors lose confidence in the ability of a government to manage its fiscal policy. Although historical experience and economic theory do not indicate the exact threshold at which the perceived risks associated with the U.S. public debt would increase markedly, we can be sure that, without corrective action, our fiscal trajectory will move the nation ever closer to that point.
Greece? Really? Business Insider calls this plain annoying. The comparison is the wrong country. America really looks like Japan. The dire warning the United States could become like Greece is really about health care costs. Federal outlays for health care are already 5% of GDP and we have apocolyptic projections for meteoric health care costs increases. Here's Bernanke on those:
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A Rare Ruling on China Might Lead to Minerals Less Rare
The WTO appellate court has ruled against China's export taxes on minerals. The case was brought by the U.S., Mexico and the E.U.
The Appellate Body, reviewing an earlier decision by a W.T.O. dispute settlement panel, said the panel had gone too far in defining why more than three dozen Chinese policies violated free trade rules. But the appeals group said on Monday that the overall effect of China’s export restrictions was harming international trade and the policies would have to be scrapped.
China is the largest global producer of bauxite, zinc and yellow phosphorus, fluorspar, magnesium, manganese, silicon carbide and silicon metal, the minerals listed in the WTO case.
The United States, European Union and Mexico accused China of using export taxes and quotas to force international chemical companies and other businesses to move their factories to China to tap these resources.
While people rejoice and believe this ruling implies China will have to remove export restrictions on rare earth minerals, au contraire, it's not so.
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Sunday Morning Comics - Space Oddity Edition
Brought to you by the Republican primary -It's not that they say things no one in their right mind would believe. It's the fact people actually vote for them for it.

Good Morning! Rise and Shine! Get that Cup O' Joe...
break out the O.J....hang out with the pooch...time to check out the economic funnies.
Yes, you too can run a factory of slave laborers, working 14 hour shifts, living in dorms with few breaks or food and get stinking rich from them. A new game has come on board called Sweatshop. It's for real, online. Click on the image below to play the Sweatshop game!
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Saturday Reads Around the Internets - OMG Mitt Made Sense
Welcome to the weekly roundup of great articles, facts and figures. These are the weekly finds that made our eyes pop.
Mitt Romney Speaks Some Truth on Mortgages
There has been more than one sane thing coming from Mitt Romney's mouth (surprise, surprise) and this one was so good even Eliot Spitzer and Dylan Ratigan took note:
Finally, a presidential candidate came out and honestly addressed the biggest problem in our economy, the enormous debt overhang in our mortgage market. A few days ago, Mitt Romney was at a forum in Florida talking about foreclosures, and his comments were actually refreshingly honest about our housing and banking situation and the need for a debt write-down.
Sure beats colonies on the moon, outlawing contraception and returning to the Gold standard.
This is the right approach to the problem. If you force the banks to recognize losses on the mortgage debt they are holding, then all of a sudden they will have an incentive to write down debt. Otherwise, a bank will do anything it can to maintain the fiction that the debt is worth 100 cents on the dollar, including lie, harass, and robo-sign.
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Here Come Commodities on Fire - Thank You Federal Reserve
Quantitative Easing rumors are now spreading like wildfire. Speculators have already grabbed one commodity, tin.
Tin climbed the most in almost four months in London as prospects of low U.S. interest rates at least until 2014 boosted speculation of increased demand for the metal used in mobile phones, plasma screens and cars.
Gold bugs are also going nuts and most commodities have jumped in prices, almost overnight.
There was a one two three punch by the Federal Reserve. First the FOMC announced uber-low interest rates until 2014.
The Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
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SOTU Reviews & Reactions
We've heard many a great speech from President Obama before. Last night's State of the Union was no exception. Here at The Economic Populist we say show me the money. We've heard soaring rhetoric from President Obama too many times, yet behind the words, deeds are either opposite or M.I.A.
Still, Obama gave a lot of lip service to U.S. manufacturing and jobs. To even get U.S. manufacturing on the national policy radar is a feat in and of itself. The actual SOTU transcript is on the White House site with a flurry of videos, social media and round tables to boot. Can't say this administration suffers from a lack of word generation!
That said, we all take President Obama at this point with a strong grain of salt. We've been so disappointed already.
Economic Policy Institute Economist Robert Scott noted China's currency manipulation was sorely absent from SOTU. Yet also noted the administration's hands are often tied by Congress:
Kudos to him for continuing to highlight this important issue, but he failed to mention the main cause of our manufacturing woes in the first place: currency manipulation.

