Robert Oak's blog

A Deeper Look into Friday's Unemployment Numbers

The headlines hit the feeds, WOW! May nonfarm payrolls -345,000, while minimizing a 9.4% national unemployment rate.

Others, not really interested in lagging indicators of a possible recession bottom, questioned Huh?

I mean, really, talk about cheerleading!   A reduction in the collosal monthly rate of job losses over the last year or so is interpreted here as a slow-down in the recession?  How so?  A slow-down in job losses, perhaps, and probably a monthly blip, but an improving recession?    How is that connection established?   I'd say there's about as much substance to that statement as Bush's remark that "We don't torture".

In Jobless rate slows, unemployment up and traders are happy:

There are so many people that have run out their unemployment benefits and have either:

  • Just stopped looking and aren't working
  • They had to take part time work

In these economic times of a prolonged recession, oops better get my words in order her, call it an economic down turn.   Did the powers to be ever really say the R word.   Did we hit enough quarters for them?

Econbrowser (one of the best blogs out there for economics!) says it all with a couple of graphs:

A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Senate Banking Committee Hearing

On May 20th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner testified before the Senate Banking Committee on TARP Oversight.

Our Senators, bi-partisan, asked some very good common sense questions.

This hearing was right before Geithner announced they will be using the
Wall Street Plan
(read Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase) for OTC derivatives trading, a seemingly contradiction of his earlier May 13th proposal.

Below are excerpts from the committee questioning.

Senator Mark Warner asks why AIG paid out on credit default swaps at 100%, in particular to Goldman Sachs:

Friday Movie Night - Frontline's Sick Around America Edition

 It's Friday Night! Party Time!   Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!

 

Tonight's video is Frontline's Sick Around America.

 

Now the start of this video shows someone from Microsoft who clearly is not under the age of 30. We know this is false and Microsoft uses thousands of H-1B workers, contractors and other methods to labor arbitrage workers and deny full participation in benefits. So take their corporate health care plug with a grain of salt.

 

Where are the Stimulus Jobs?

Who can forget those beyond incredible job creation projection numbers of the Stimulus Bill.  3.5 million jobs, 4 million jobs, the promise was high and never mind spending almost a trillion dollars for these jobs.  Recently the Council of Economic advisers issued a report on job creation from the Stimulus, at the same time, the White House claimed to have saved 750,000 jobs by August, 2009.

So, what's the catch?  There is no real world, real data on the truth of these claims and there may never be.

We still have theoretical calculations on job creation, based on Stimulus spending as a ratio of GDP, and thus indirectly jobs.

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