inventories

Factory Orders Not Off to a Good Start as April Down By -0.4%

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders declined by -0.4% for April.  That's not a good start for the second quarter although March new factory orders was a blow out of 2.2%.  Durable goods new orders doubled down on it's previously published decline and dropped by -1.0%.

It's Official, We're Negative, GDP -0.7% for First Quarter

If is official.  It happened.  First quarter 2015 real GDP just went negative with a -0.7% contraction.  Remember folks, two consecutive quarters of negative growth can make up an official recession.  In reality the revision is a one percentage point slide.  Psychologically speaking, contraction isn't too swift as it often pricks bubble minds that blow hot air all over as they deflate.  The reason for the negative revision is imports.

Durable Goods Shows Steady As She Goes

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders declined by -0.5% in April.  In March new orders increased 5.1% yet in February, new orders dropped by -3.5%.  For April, transportation was the culprit as new orders in this category dropped -2.5%.  Core capital goods, on the other hand, gained 1.0%.  Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have increased by 0.5%.

Economy Stalled as First Quarter GDP Only 0.2%

First quarter 2015 real GDP is a measly, pathetic 0.2%.  That's quite disappointing, and just shavings and crumbs away from contraction.  Consumer spending was less than half of the contribution Q4 brought and exports imploded.  While some think this is a report to ignore, that economic growth will spring back, we think this is quite a foreboding of bad news.

 

Q4 2014 GDP Revised Down to 2.2%

Fourth quarter 2014 real GDP was revised 0.4 percentage points lower to 2.2%.  That's quite disappointing, although still mediocre growth.  The reason for the revision reduction was inventories did not grow nearly as much as originally estimated and imports increased.  Real consumer spending was barely revised.  Overall Q4 GDP cutting isn't that surprising, more Q3 GDP's lack of trade deficit impact was.

 

Durable Goods Plummets for December 2014

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders declined by -3.4% for December 2014.  This month the decline was caused by volatile aircraft and parts.  Core capital goods also dropped by -0.6%.  For the last three of four months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.  Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, the durable goods decline would have been -0.8%.

Q3 2014 GDP Revised Up to a Whopping 5.0%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised up even further to a whopping 5.0%.  Merry Christmas Wall Street as the Dow closed above 18,000, a record high.  This is the highest quarterly GDP since Q3 2003, a full eleven years ago.  The reason for the revision blow out was consumer spending and investment.  Real consumer spending was revised up almost 3/4th of a percentage point more than the first revision previously reported.

Q3 GDP Surprisingly Revised Upward by Half a Percentage Point to 3.9%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised upward to 3.9% from the original 3.5%.  The reason was investment, as changes in private inventories were revised sharply upward.  Consumer spending was also stronger by over a quarter of a percentage point and also bumped up the revision.  Imports were revised upward and exports downward which subtracted from economic growth.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly strong in this Turkey surprise.

Another Strong Quarter for GDP, Q3 3.5%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP came in at a strong 3.5%.  This is the second quarter in a row for solid economic growth.  Q1 showed a contraction  Take a good look for Q3 GDP will be revised and we estimate strongly downward as imports come into the Census for tabulation.  Private inventories contracted, hence investment was much less than Q2.  Consumer spending was also tamer.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly solid.

 

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