inventories

Services Use More Than Estimated as Q4 GDP Revised Upward to 1.4%

Q4 GDP was revised upward again to now be 1.4%.  That's double the original advance report of 0.7% and the first revision was 1.0%.  The primary cause of the upward revision was more consumer spending in services than previously estimated.  The trade deficit Q4 GDP impact was significantly less.  Residential housing was revised upward as well.

February Durable Goods Drops By -2.8%

The Durable Goods, advance report shows another decline in manufactured durable goods new orders for February.  New orders dropped by -2.8% and has been down three of the past for months.  February shipments also were negative with a -0.9% drop.  Core capital goods new orders by themselves declined by -1.8%.  Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have decreased by -1.0%.

Q4 2015 GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%

The initial Q4 GDP estimate is an ominous 0.7%.  Consumer spending was the only dimly lit bright spot,with changes in inventories removing 0.45 percentage points from GDP.  The trade deficit didn't help either as exports were less than imports and the end result was a -0.47 percentage point drain on Q4 real GDP.  Both government and fixed investment GDP contribution was next to nil.

 

December Durable Goods Horrific as New Orders Plunge -5.1%

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders just jumped off of a cliff in December.  New orders plunged -5.1% and even worse, November new orders was revised down to -0.5%.  Not to be outdone, December shipments is also horrific with a -2.2% drop.  Core capital goods new orders also plunged by -4.3%.  Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have decreased by -1.2%.

Q3 GDP 2.0% as Investment in Inventories Declined

Q3 GDP has been revised to 2.0%.  This is a smidgen, a 0.1 percentage point lowering than the last estimate.  Most factors which make up GDP did not change much from the primarily estimate.  Changes in private inventories was where the revision occurred as they were revised from -0.59 to -0.71 percentage points of GDP.  Consumer spending and domestic demand are still muddling along with moderate growth.

On the Revision of 3rd Quarter GDP from a 1.5% Growth Rate to a 2.1% Rate

As was widely expected,  the Second Estimate of our 3rd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 2.1% rate in the 2nd quarter, revised from the 1.5% growth rate reported in the advance estimate last month, as fixed investment and inventories were revised higher while exports were revised lower.

Q2 GDP Revised Even Higher to 3.9%

Q2 GDP has been revised upward again to 3.9%.  Originally Q2 GDP was reported as 2.3% and then increased to 3.7%.  The reason for the higher GDP revision is consumer spending was revised upward by over a quarter of a percentage point.  Consumer spending was 62% of real GDP.  The revision is yet another surprise since GDP is now 70% greater than the original estimate.

Q2 GDP Soars With 3.7% Growth

Q2 GDP has been significantly revised upward from 2.3% to 3.7%.  Investment was dramatically revised upward as was spending by state and local governments.  Consumer spending was a healthy 57.2% of real GDP.  Also surprising was a lack of upward revisions in imports.  Regardless, that is a 1.37 percentage point GDP revision, a 59% change from the advance report.

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