August 2009

The Coming Foreclosure Wave

Has housing hit a bottom? Fox News declared that the bottom is in, as had many other talking heads.

In fact, the reality of the situation is a "good news, bad news" scenario.

(Bloomberg) -- The wave of “option” adjustable-rate mortgages recasting to higher payments, projected by some economists to represent a looming source of foreclosures that will hurt housing markets over the next few years, will be smaller than “feared” because many borrowers will default before their bills change, Barclays Capital analysts said.

So you see, the coming tsunami of foreclosures will be much small than expected because people are going to go broke beforehand. That's the good news.

Rejecting a Job Applicant based on their Credit Score - Discrimination?

Is rejecting a job applicant based on a credit score discrimination? Credit Slips says yes.

From the New York Times, Another Hurdle for the Jobless: Credit Inquiries:

More than 40 percent of employers use credit checks at least sometimes, according to a 2004 survey by the Society for Human Resource Management, up from 25 percent in 1998.

and this lovely assumption from employers:

Business executives say that they have an obligation to be diligent and to protect themselves from employees who may be unreliable, unwise or too susceptible to temptation to steal, and that credit checks are a help.

From Credit Slips:

Bank Failure Friday: Late Edition

Five more banks failed on Friday, which isn't really new.

Union Bank, National Association of Gilbert, Arizona
Community Bank of Arizona of Phoenix, Arizona
Community Bank of Nevada of Las Vegas, Nevada
Dwelling House Savings and Loan Association of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

These are all small to medium sized banks and nothing to worry too much about.
However, there was one bank that is an exception to this rule - Colonial Bank of Montgomery, Alabama.

As of June 30, 2009, Colonial Bank had total assets of $25 billion and total deposits of approximately $20 billion...

“Rough Equality of Means” – Reversing Economic Inequality

Note: this is a cross-post from The Realignment Project. In order to not clog up the front page with lots of re-posts, I'll just mention that I have additional posts out this week that are on a similar topic - one on the abolition of poverty (a similar, but different object from ending inequality), and the other on the establishment of a Fisc - that might interest people here at Economic Populist.

Introduction:

A recent paper by Professor Emmanuel Saez of U.C Berkeley provides further evidence for something that we've sensed already - economic inequality has never been greater in American history. We have finally succeeded in accomplishing that most dubious of accomplishments: we are now officially more unequal, more elitist, and more disproportionally in-egalitarian than the benighted America of 1929.

In 2007, the top 10% of Americans received 50% of the nation's wages. That number, the sheer unreality of the idea that a tiny fraction of the population should have the sheer unmitigated selfishness to claim every other dollar in wages paid out, pales before an even more troubling figure. The top 1% of Americans captured 2/3rds of income growth and 1/2 of economic growth from 2002-2007. At the same time that the rich have gotten even richer, the rest of us have not fared as well - indeed, even before the recession, the average working-age household lost $2000/year of income since the year 2000.

Can this state of affairs continue? And how can we stop it?

Friday Movie Night - Wealth Inequality

 It's Friday Night! Party Time!   Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!

 

Considering the blockbuster new research on the beyond belief increase in income and wealth inequality in the United States, I thought some films on income inequality might be in order.

First up is a lecture from Harvard Economist Richard Freeman on how income inequality and globalization are threatening Democracy in the United States.

 

Income Inequality is Getting Lots of Press Today

It started with Prof. Krugman's post from yesterday called Even More Gilded where he talks about a very important but overlooked report by Prof. Emmanuel Saez. Now, this morning the front page of Huffington Post. This issue needs to catch on.

I strong urge people to read to Prof. Saez report: Striking it Rich. Here is the most striking excerpt:

The Deflationary Bust bottoms

This morning the BLS reported that consumer inflation remained unchanged (seasonally adjusted) in June, declining -0.2% NSA. Year-over-year prices have fallen - 2.1% into deflation. YoY consumer deflation is only surpassed by 1949's -2.9% in the post-Depression era.

The 2009 first half inflation data unfolded in accord with the optimistic scenario I laid out in January:

In the Optimistic scenario, the fiscal and monetary stimuli, together with intelligent new political leadership in Washington, halt the meltdown perhaps by mid-year, and wage reductions remain the exception. In the Pessimistic scenario, the stimuli fail, and wage reductions spread, leading to a wage-price deflationary spiral.

The 5% Dissolution Solution

5%. That's the magic number, the secret formula, to push banks over the edge into the loving arms of the FDIC. Like date night, bank seizure is now a Friday tradition. In other words, the magic 20 to 1 good debt, bad debt ratio is the tipping point and probably will cause the bank to fail. The dreaded 5 is the ratio of non-performing loans, often aliased as toxic assets.

In Bloomberg's Toxic Loans Topping 5% May Push 150 Banks to Point of No Return :

More than 150 publicly traded U.S. lenders own nonperforming loans that equal 5 percent or more of their holdings, a level that former regulators say can wipe out a bank’s equity and threaten its survival.

Links on Retail Sales and Unemployment Initial Claims

Normally we write our own take on various economic indicators and data on EP...

Tonight, I'm tired and instead am going to point to some very good posts, which I think give some insight.

On today's jump in initial unemployment claims, complete with original graphs, Calculated Risk.

Here is the DOL press release on this week's unemployment claims.

U.S. Dept. of Commerce's press release on retail sales.

retail sales July 2009

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